75216 January 2013 – Number 79 AN ADAPTATION TO A CHANGING CLIMATE IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES Dorte Verner1 Climate Change in the Arab Countries Today: The Arab people and policy makers already experience Introduction: The Arab people have been adapting the effects of a changing climate; higher to climate change for centuries. The first settlements temperatures and extreme events such as drought in the world began in this region, and all of them and flash floods have become the new norm. The have changed in response to the variable climate. year 2010 was the warmest since the late 1800s, and For thousands of years, the people of MENA have when this data began to be collected, 19 countries coped with the challenges of climate variability by had set new national temperature highs. Five of adapting their survival strategies to changes in these were Arab countries, including Kuwait, which rainfall and temperature. But the message is clear: set a record high of 52.6 °C in 2010, only to be over the next century this variability will increase followed by 53.5 °C in 2011. Extreme climate events and the climate will experience unprecedented are widely reported in local media, and a 2009 Arab extremes and existing coping mechanisms and region survey showed that over 90% of people strategies are likely inadequate. Temperatures will sampled agree that climate change is occurring and reach new highs, and in most places there will be is largely due to human activities; 84% believe it is a less rainfall. Water availability will decrease, and serious challenge for their countries; and with a growing population, the already water-scarce respondents were evenly split on whether their region may not have sufficient supplies to irrigate governments were acting appropriately to address crops, support industry, or provide drinking water. climate change issues. The sample came mostly from Fortunately, Arab countries can take steps to reduce the better-educated population, but it shows that climate change impacts and build resilience. Climate there is a firm base and desire for action regarding change is also bringing attention overlooked issues. climate change across the Arab region. For example, low quality urban drainage systems have contributed to flooding in some Arab cities and Water Scarcity in the Arab countries: The Arab the threat of more flooding could be the impetus to region has the lowest freshwater resource finally rebuild this infrastructure. In rural areas, endowment in the world. All but six Arab countries climate change is forcing communities to rethink (the Comoros, Iraq, Lebanon, Somalia, Sudan, and gender roles that perpetuate gender inequality. the Syrian Arab Republic) suffer from water scarcity Finally, adaptation governance can be improved and - defined as having less than 1,000 m3 of water per implemented throughout the region. The Quick person per year. It is estimated that climate change Note is based on the longer October 2012 World will reduce water runoff by 10% by 2050. Currently, Bank report entitled Adaptation to a Changing Climate the region suffers a water deficit and with increasing in the Arab Countries.2 populations and per capita water use, demand is projected to increase a further 60% by 2045. 1 Climate Change and Agricultural Production: Dorte Verner, Senior Economist, Environment Unit, Middle East Projections suggest that the rate of increase in and North Africa Region (MNSEN), The World Bank. 2 agricultural production will slow over the next few Verner, Dorte (Ed.). Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab World: A Case for Adaptation, Governance, and leadership decades, and it may start to decline after about 2050. in Building Climate Resilience, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Most of the Mediterranean region, which supports important sector for jobs, because roughly 6% of the 80% of production, is projected to have less rainfall region’s employment is tourism related. Higher and hotter conditions. This will increase water use temperatures are an obvious threat to tourism in a and likely limit the productivity of some crops. region that is already regarded as hot. Analyses of Other areas, such as the Nile Delta, will have to tourism patterns suggest that in the long-term, contend with saline intrusion from the sea. Farmers destinations on the north Mediterranean coast or will face additional problems from higher within Europe will become more attractive than will temperatures. For example, the chilling the Arab region. Snowfall in Lebanon (for skiing), requirements for some fruits may not be met; new Red Sea coral reefs, and many ancient monuments pests will emerge; and soil fertility is likely to across the region are threatened by climate change decline. This is alarming because almost half of the and severe weather. Ecotourism is an expanding region’s population is rural, and 40% of sector, but the ecosystems (coral reefs, mountains, employment is from agriculture. Compounding this and oases) on which it depends will have to be are troubling poverty rates: 34% of the rural managed carefully as they adjust to a changing population is poor, and unemployment is high, climate. Extreme events, such as heavy rains, or especially for women and youth. more chronic pressures, such as increased salinity in groundwater, can threaten the region’s historic Arab Cities and Climate Change: Currently 56% of buildings, paintings, and artifacts. Some Arab people live in urban centers, and by 2050 these destinations, such as Alexandria, will be further populations will increase to 75%. Droughts have threatened by seawater inundation as sea levels rise. been shown to increase rural-to-urban migration in In most cases, there is already a need to better the region. A recent multi-year drought in the Syrian conserve and protect these cultural sites. Climate Arab Republic is estimated to have led to the change increases its urgency. migration of about one million people to informal settlements around the major cities. Many cities are Climate Change and Gender Equity: Men and already experiencing severe housing shortages women possess unique vulnerabilities to climate because of this urban population growth. change impacts, largely based on their respective roles in society. However, in the majority of cases, Urban Areas Are Vulnerable to Climate Change. rural women tend to be vulnerable in more ways Flash flooding is increasing in cities across the than are rural men. Climate change will further region as a result of more intense rainfall events, affect rural livelihoods, and more men will feel concrete surfaces that do not absorb water, obligated to move to cities to seek paid employment, inadequate and blocked drainage systems, and which is mostly unskilled and temporary, with little increased construction in low-lying areas and wadis. security, low wages, crowded living conditions, and The number of people affected by flash floods has poor health support. As a result, on top of their doubled over the last ten years to 500,000 people already heavy domestic workload and local natural across the region. Climate change projections resource management, rural women assume the suggest that average temperatures in the Arab departed male’s community role, but with countries are likely to increase by up to 3°C by 2050. additional challenges. Women tend to have less The urban heat island effect is projected to increase education; they find travel difficult because of nighttime temperatures by an additional 3°C. In cultural norms, pregnancy and child care; and often addition, providing water to urban areas is lack the cultural and legal authority to assert their becoming increasingly difficult. Reasons for this rights. For example, their access to credit might be include aging pipes, water loss from leakage of 40% limited, access to and control of water is usually or more in some major cities, and no water ceded to landowners—rarely a woman—and even infrastructure in informal settlements. access to rural organizations and support systems is often thwarted. Women’s representation in Arab Tourism and Climate: Tourism today contributes governments is only 9% - half of the global average. about US$50 billion per year to the Arab region, which is about 3% of its total gross domestic product Women as Active Agents of Climate Adaptation: (GDP), and tourism is projected to grow by about Because of their central role in family, household, 3.3% per year for the next 20 years. It is also an and rural activities, women are in a position to January 2013 · Number 79· 2 change the attitudes, behaviors, and livelihoods that household incomes of 7% in Syria and Tunisia, and are needed for successful adaptation. A focus on 24% in Yemen. gender is not an add-on to policy formulation but an essential part of any development strategy. Effective Taking Action to Reduce Vulnerability to Climate adaptation can only be achieved if the many barriers Change: The report proposes an Adaptation to gender equity are removed and, in particular, Pyramid (see the figure below) providing a women are empowered to contribute. While women framework to support Arab countries in integrating still have a literacy rate 15% lower than men and climate change related risks and opportunities into little voice in decision making, this may be development activities. This is based on an adaptive changing. For example, in some Gulf countries, management approach, highlighting the importance more women than men graduate from universities. of leadership, without which adaptation efforts are Climate Change and Health: Higher temperatures are known to lead directly to increased morbidity (deaths) through heat stress and indirectly to strokes and heart-related deaths. Warmer conditions also affect the geographic range of disease vectors such as mosquitoes. A warmer climate will expose new populations to diseases such as malaria and dengue, for which they are unprepared. In the region, disruptions to existing agricultural practices will lead to increased malnutrition, due to higher food prices and greater exposure to diseases and other health problems—especially in case of higher unlikely to achieve the commitment to be successful. migration to unsanitary, informal settlements. The The framework assesses climate risks and impact of malnutrition on children is particularly opportunities and identifies options in the context of worrisome because this leads not only to increased other development planning. The next step is to child mortality, but also to developmental and long- identify and prioritize adaptation options within the term physical and mental impediments. context of national, regional, and local priorities. Finally, adaptation responses will be implemented Climate Change and Socio-Economic Impact: and outcomes monitored over time. It is important These largely depend on a country’s coping to take into account the long-term consequences of capacity, which is often linked to its level of these decisions, because short-term responses may development. The Arab countries include six least not be efficient or could lead to maladaptive developed countries (LDCs) with mostly rural outcomes. populations and annual per capita GDP as low as US$600 (Somalia). By comparison, Kuwait, Qatar, An effective approach for prioritizing options is and the United Arab Emirates have GDP per capita ―robust decision making,‖ which identifies choices of over US$50,000 with 80–90% of the people living that lead to acceptable outcomes under many future in cities. It is likely that all economies will be scenarios. This approach is particularly well suited increasingly affected by climate change as time to climate change, a problem that will be constantly passes, but it is clear that some countries will be evolving in the coming decades and will require affected more than others. Wealthier or more diverse many options during multiple iterations of decision economies are more resilient to climate change than making. The risk of policy errors is present when poorer or less diverse economies, where many live dealing with climate change, but a robust decision off the land and remain vulnerable to negative making process reduces risk. Other important climate impacts. This is illustrated by background measures for Arab region policy makers to case studies prepared for this report on income, implement are discussed below: livelihoods, well-being, and poverty in Syria, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen. Nevertheless, 1. Facilitate the development of publicly accessible and results show that over the next 30–40 years, climate reliable information related to climate change. Access to change is likely to lead to a cumulative reduction in January 2013 · Number 79· 3 quality weather and climate data is essential for nongovernmental cooperation, and plentiful policy making. Without reliable data on temperature financial resources are all important for building and precipitation levels, it is difficult to assess the resilience to climate change. Developing national current climate and make reliable weather forecasts adaptation strategies are important for prioritizing and climate predictions. For example, information adaptation activities that respond to urgent and on river flows, groundwater levels, and water immediate needs, and for setting forth guiding quality and salinity is critical for assessing current principles in the effort to cope with climate change. and future water availability. However, climate National governments have a key role in developing stations across the region are limited compared to these strategies and as a result play an important other regions and what data exists is often not role in promoting collaboration and cooperation. digitized or publicly available. Conflict in parts of This cooperation should include the government, the region disrupts both the collection and sharing civil society, the private sector, and international of data. Information on food production and food institutions. Within governments, inter-ministerial supply chains (such as changes in agricultural yields coordination is especially critical, because and production for important crops, forage, and adaptation responses often require activities livestock) needs to be linked with weather and water involving multiple ministries and sectors. Finally, to data to better monitor and understand the effects of do any of the activities above it is important to a changing climate. In addition, socioeconomic data secure the necessary financial resources. There are (including household and census data) and other many sources for adaptation funding, but first the economic data related to the labor market and Arab countries will need to build their capacity to production should be collected and made available. analyze their financial needs and generate and manage these resources. 2. Build climate resilience through social protection and other measures. Resilience is determined by factors Conclusion: The Arab region’s climate has already such as an individual’s age, gender, and health begun to change, often to the detriment of Arab status, or a household’s asset base and degree of society. But what makes climate change particularly integration with the market economy. difficult is that it is not a static problem; a more Underinvestment in social safety nets and public variable and unpredictable climate will not be services such as water supply and wastewater solved by one round of policy making. Adaptation treatment, and housing and infrastructure—make governance will be a dynamic process of multiple people more vulnerable to climate change. Measures responses to new threats. Political change, including are needed to ensure equitable access to health care changes originating from the Arab spring, can and quality education. Such social protection provide opportunities to strengthen civil society measures include insurance schemes, pensions, participation in adaptation governance and enable a access to credit; cash transfer programs, relocation move toward more inclusive approaches to programs, and other forms of social assistance. addressing climate change issues and building These investments and instruments facilitate climate resilience. A key message is that climate economic and social inclusion, which creates co- change should be taken into account in all activities, benefits between adaptation and development goals. including those not directly addressed here. Anticipation of climate change can be the stimulus 3. Develop a supportive policy and institutional for improving interventions, galvanizing support, framework for adaptation. Basic conditions for effective and improving governance. development, i.e. the rule of law, transparency and Contact MNA K&L: accountability, participatory decision-making Laura Tuck, Director, Strategy and Operations. structures, and reliable public service delivery at MENA Region, The World Bank international quality standards support effective Regional Quick Notes Team: development and adaptation action. Climate change Omer Karasapan, and Roby Fields adaptation also requires new or revised climate- Tel #: (202) 473 8177 smart policies and structures at all levels. The MNA Quick Notes are intended to summarize lessons learned from MNA and other Bank Knowledge and Learning activities. The Notes do not necessarily reflect the views of National Adaptation Strategies: Sound adaptation the World Bank, its board or its member countries. planning, strong governmental and January 2013 · Number 79· 4