2021/118 Supported by K NKONW A A WELDEGDEG E OL N ONTOET E S ESREI R E ISE S F OFRO R P R&A C T HTEH E NEENREGRYG Y ETX ITCREA C T I V E S G L O B A L P R A C T I C E THE BOTTOM LINE Understanding CO2 Emissions from Geothermal Power Turkey began tapping its high- temperature geothermal resources Generation in Turkey to generate electricity in 1984, and geothermal energy remains an important option in the What is Turkey’s geothermal potential— suitable for direct uses such as heating, certain industrial processes, and thermal tourism.1 But about 10 percent of the fields, representing country’s clean energy transition. and what does CO2 have to do with it? an estimated 40,000 MWt, have temperatures high enough to be suit- At the time of commissioning, Anatolia is endowed with great geothermal potential, able for electricity generation using current technologies (MTA 2019), CO2 emission factors from Turkish geothermal plants have been which it has used since ancient times and now enabling a total potential electrical output of up to 4,000 megawatts exploits as a sustainable resource for generating electric (MWe). Turkey currently operates 54 geothermal power measured in the 400 to 1,300 g/ plants, which reached an installed capacity of 1,576 MWe in October kWh range, significantly higher electricity 2020. CO2 tends to be present in the high-enthalpy fluids and than the reported global average Since the 1960s, 239 geothermal fields have been identified in Turkey, provides much of the pressure that makes the fluids easy to extract (121 g/kWh). The good news is representing an estimated potential of 60,000 megawatts thermal for power generation, while it is not a relevant enabling factor for that despite these unusually high (MWt). The fields are spread across the country, though most are sit- direct uses. initial emission factors most, if uated in Western Anatolia (78 percent), followed by Central Anatolia Turkey is among the world’s twenty largest economies. With a not all, Turkish geothermal power (9 percent), Marmara Region (7 percent), and Eastern Anatolia (5 growing economy and population, the country’s electricity demand plants show a steady decline in percent). has increased by approximately 7 percent each year since 2005. CO2 emissions over time, based on A share of these geothermal resources (representing about Domestic resources meet only about half of total energy demand. available data. 20,000 MWt) possess low to medium enthalpy—a property of a As a local, renewable substitute for fossil-fuel generation, geothermal thermodynamic system defined as the sum of the system’s internal energy is a key component of Turkey’s low-carbon transition. Predictive models developed energy and the product of its pressure and volume—making them under the World Bank–financed 1. Currently Turkey has installed capacity of around 3,600 MWt in direct uses. Geothermal Development Project show that estimated average lifetime emissions from Turkey’s Yasemin Orucu is a senior Almudena Mateos Merino is a Oumaima Idrissi is an intern geothermal power plants are energy specialist at the World senior energy specialist at the at the World Bank. aligned with the global average. Bank. World Bank. These results justify further investments in the development of Elin Hallgrimsdottir is a senior Serhat Akin is professor of geothermal energy in Turkey, along energy specialist at the World petroleum and natural gas with additional research on how Bank. engineering at Middle East best to manage CO2 emissions. Technical University. 2 M A N A G I N G C O 2 E M I S S I O N S F R O M G E OT H E R M A L P O W E R G E N E R AT I O N I N T U R K E Y Figure 1. Geothermal resources and applications in Turkey The purpose of this Live Wire is to examine changes in CO2 emissions levels over time in Turkey and to determine whether those levels are dropping fast enough and far enough to justify the use of climate change finance or multilateral clean energy financing for geothermal Sources with a temperature of 70–100ºC development. Sources with a temperature of 50–69ºC Sources with a temperature of 25–49ºC Source: MTA, https://www.mta.gov.tr/v3.0/hizmetler/jeotermal-harita; World Bank cartography unit. Maximizing exploitation of domestic primary energy resources The Geothermal Law of 2007 set out the initial rules and and securing reliable and affordable energy for a growing economy principles for effective exploration, development, production, and in an environmentally sustainable manner are core energy policy protection of geothermal and natural mineral water resources. priorities of Turkey’s government, which has a legislative framework Licensing procedures were also clarified under the law. The 2007 law of strategies, plans, and laws to advance renewable energy, including was reinforced by a 2010 amendment of the Renewable Energy Law geothermal. Among the mechanisms of support are purchase of 2005, which established a FiT specifically for geothermal power. guarantees, feed-in tariffs (FiTs), and energy financing through As a result of these regulatory changes and the availability of international financial institutions. concessional financing, the sector grew from 15 MW in 2005 to In 2014, the government set a target to increase the share of more than 1,550 MW by the end of 2020. When the 2023 target for electricity from renewable energy—including wind, hydro, solar, and geothermal generation (1,000 MW) was exceeded, Turkey’s Ministry geothermal—to 30 percent of total installed capacity by 2023. This of Energy and Natural Resources announced a new target of was exceeded in 2020 with a share of 44 percent (figure 2). 4,000 MW by 2030. 3 M A N A G I N G C O 2 E M I S S I O N S F R O M G E OT H E R M A L P O W E R G E N E R AT I O N I N T U R K E Y Figure 2. Share of electricity generation by technology, 2020 Natural gas 19% Hydropower Biomass and waste As a local, renewable 29% 2% substitute for fossil-fuel generation, geothermal energy is a key component of Turkey’s low-carbon Renewable transition. 44% Geothermal, wind, and solar Coal 13% 37% Source: TEIAS. Additional legislative changes are aimed at facilitating the greenhouse gas that contributes the most to global warming.2 licensing and permitting process and at enhancing the management Bertani and Thain (2002) reported CO2 emission factors from 85 geo- of environmental and social impacts of geothermal investments. The thermal power plants worldwide that ranged from 4 g/kWh to 740 g/ government also recently approved a five-year FiT for renewable kWh, with the weighted average being 122 g/kWh. In the case of energy to take effect upon expiration of the current regime (June 30, Turkey, observed CO2 emission factors from many geothermal plants 2021). have been at least as high as emission factors from coal-fired power Continued investment in renewable energy is key to reducing plants (Fridriksson et al. 2016). Recent studies (Akın 2017; Herrera reliance on fossil fuels; ensuring security of supply and affordability; Martinez et al. 2016; Aksoy et al. 2015; Haizlip et al. 2013) showed and electrifying other energy-intensive sectors, such as transport that initial emission factors from geothermal power plants located in and industry. the Büyük Menderes and Gediz grabens, where Turkey’s geothermal power plants are concentrated, ranged from 400 g/kWh How do CO2 emissions from Turkish geothermal power to 1,300 g/kWh.3 Using 2015 data gathered from 12 geothermal power plants in Turkey, Herrera Martinez et al. (2016) reported a plants compare with the global average? weighted CO2 emissions average of 887 g/kWh—far more than the The Turkish geothermal power plants emit higher global average. But accumulated data suggest that the gas content of concentrations of CO2 geothermal wells changes over the lifetime of the power plants. Geothermal energy is considered a clean and reliable energy source with respect to the release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere 2. Hydrogen sulfide may also be released, which has negative local effects due to its corrosive nature, odor, and toxicity in high concentrations. during power production. Yet, geothermal power plants exploiting 3. A graben is a geological formation in which a piece of the Earth’s crust has shifted downward high-temperature fields in Turkey may emit high levels of CO2, the and is bordered by two faults. 4 M A N A G I N G C O 2 E M I S S I O N S F R O M G E OT H E R M A L P O W E R G E N E R AT I O N I N T U R K E Y The purpose of this Live Wire is to examine changes in CO2 lower gas content, lowering the cost of development of geothermal emission factors over time for Turkish geothermal power plants and projects compared with projects in reservoirs having similar tem- to determine whether those levels are dropping fast enough and far perature conditions but lower gas content. enough to justify the use of multilateral clean energy financing for CO2 concentrations drop as energy is used to generate power geothermal development. and CO2 is released to the atmosphere. This may lead to lower well Thermal breakdown of There are currently no regulatory limits for CO2 emissions productivity as the energy-bearing fluid lacks the added boost of carbonate rocks in the from geothermal power plants in Turkey, and developers are not pressure and cannot reach the surface as easily as before. The required to monitor or report their emissions. However, multilateral precise effects of this loss of productivity will vary depending on roots of geothermal development banks have adopted a joint policy on CO2 accounting the resource temperature and residual pressure. The effect can be systems can result in that requires them to measure CO2 emissions from the projects they partially mitigated through reinjection of gases and the installation the formation of CO2 gas finance (AfDB et al. 2020). In the medium to long term, monitoring of pumps. However, reinjection of CO2 is still in the research and that migrates up to the requirements or emissions restrictions for geothermal projects may development stage but the European Union, under its Horizon 2020 be introduced by Turkey’s government, but some geothermal inves- program, is supporting a pilot whose objective is to develop a CO2 geothermal reservoir. tors are already considering options to reduce their CO2 emissions, capture and reinjection plant in Turkey to demonstrate the viability of The higher CO2 content either by turning the emissions into a commercially viable product to the process. A full-scale facility is currently in operation in Iceland. raises the pressure of the be supplied to the food industry or greenhouses, or by reinjecting it There are two types of well pumps. Surface-based line-shaft geothermal brine, inducing into the geothermal reservoirs. pumps can reach down 300 meters; submergible pumps can reach The high CO2 emissions from the geothermal power plants in approximately 800 meters, with the exact depth and capacity a more efficient flow of the Büyuk Menderes and Gediz grabens reflect unusual geological depending on the manufacturer and the conditions in the reservoir. energy. characteristics. The carbonate-dominated metamorphic rocks of The size of the pump and thus the casing will influence the achiev- these two grabens are common sedimentary rocks, composed able flow rate. Reinjection wells must be strategically located so as mainly of calcite, aragonite, and dolomite. Carbonate rocks are not to lower the temperature in the production wells. A strategy for biogenic sedimentary rocks formed in relatively shallow waters from optimized reinjection and pumping must be devised to arrive at the skeletal fragments of marine organisms. In contrast to marble, which most economical and renewable solution. forms by recrystallization of carbonate rocks at high temperatures and pressures, carbonate rocks are are formed at relatively high How have CO2 emissions from Turkish geothermal temperatures but relatively low pressure, conditions prevailing near power plants changed over time? shallow magma intrusions or in the roots of high temperature geo- thermal systems, where the carbonate minerals react with silicates Most plants are showing sharp declines in to form calcium or magnesium silicates and CO2 gas. CO2 emissions Thermal breakdown of carbonate rocks in the roots of geother- The lifecycle of a geothermal field can be divided into four parts: mal systems can result in the formation of CO2 gas that migrates development, sustainment, decline, and renewal (Lovekin 1998). The up to the geothermal reservoir. Similarly, as calcite, quartz, and development period encompasses the construction and drilling of wollastonite reach equilibrium in high-temperature geothermal res- production and injection wells and the commissioning of the power ervoirs, high concentrations of CO2 are dissolved in the geothermal plant. This is followed by the sustainment period, during which the fluid. The higher CO2 content raises the pressure of the geothermal output of the geothermal field remains steady for a period of time. brine, inducing a more efficient flow of energy. With lower pressures, The duration depends on the reservoir characteristics, the degree of pumps are required to access the energy-laden fluids. The high CO2 exploitation in relation to the size of the reservoir, and the reinjection content of Turkey’s geothermal resources allows for artesian flow strategy adopted to restore fluids (and possibly CO2) back into the from wells at much lower temperatures than in reservoirs with 5 M A N A G I N G C O 2 E M I S S I O N S F R O M G E OT H E R M A L P O W E R G E N E R AT I O N I N T U R K E Y geothermal field. In the decline period, the geothermal reservoir reducing reservoir gas concentrations. If the hydraulic connection will suffer a loss of pressure, which will affect well productivity. in the reservoir between the reinjection and the production wells Depending on the size of the reservoir and the rate of exploitation, is negligible, then CO2 concentration rates in the geothermal fluid the decline may be small or large—from an annual drop of 2 percent will not be as affected. Typically, make-up wells are drilled inside an to as high as 20 percent. In either case, make-up wells must be already confirmed reservoir to maintain geothermal production at a As part of the World drilled to maintain the required levels of geothermal production. In certain level. Bank–financed Geothermal the renewal stage, if natural recharge and net withdrawals are equal, Yet another reason for declining emissions is that, if the rate of the CO2 concentration of the geothermal fluid should remain stable CO2 emissions stemming from power plant operations exceeds the Development Project, we for a long time. natural rate of recharge of gas into the subsurface reservoir, gas lev- studied 14 geothermal As part of the World Bank–financed Geothermal Development els in the reservoir are likely to decrease over time. This effect may power plants in the Project, Akin and co-authors (2020) studied 14 geothermal power explain most of the cases of CO2 depletion, as the working (installed) Büyük Menderes and plants in the Büyük Menderes and Gediz grabens. All plants seemed capacity ratios of the 14 plants are somewhat low for geothermal to be experiencing declines in emissions owing to reductions in power plants globally. Gediz grabens. All plants CO2 concentrations in the reservoirs. As noted, Herrera Martinez If make-up wells are drilled inside an already diluted section of seemed to be experiencing et al. (2016) reported a weighted average of 887 g/kWh of CO2 the field, they will not change the CO2 emission rates. This is quite declines in emissions emissions using data obtained from 12 geothermal power plants commonly observed in most fields in Turkey since CO2 emission owing to reductions in in 2015. Their model predicted that total emissions of geothermal rates do not increase at all, even though several make-up wells have plants in Turkey would reach 5.9 MtCO2 by 2023, with a constant already been drilled. On the contrary, if make-up wells are drilled in a CO2 concentrations in the 3.5 percent annual decline (assuming power production remained at virgin section of the field where CO2 concentration is higher than in reservoirs. 634 MWe). The geothermal power plants we investigated represent the rest of the field, CO2 emission rates will rise somewhat, depend- more than 36 percent of total installed capacity, with data collected ing on the rate of production. through the end of 2019. Data were collected from eight “binary” To model the observed decline in CO2 concentration and to plants (194.8 MW) and six “flash” plants (352.4 MW) covering a total understand the relationship between this decline and measurements of 100 production wells. Initial and current average CO2 production of production and reinjection, the following data are required: rates of these geothermal power plants were estimated at 37.3 and • Time series of production and injection rates for individual 18.7 tons/hour, respectively. The power-weighted average of initial wells and cumulative production and reinjection rates for the and current CO2 production rates was somewhat higher, at reservoirs 54 and 25 tons/hour, respectively. The power-weighted and arithme- • Measured CO2 concentration in total discharges from production tic averages of these plants were 582 and 596 gCO2/kWh, signifi- wells cantly lower than the arithmetic average of 887 gCO2/kWh previously • Total CO2 emission rates measured from power plants reported by Herrera Martinez et al. (2016). • Chemical monitoring data showing return of reinjected brine to Most of the decline we observed can be explained by two production wells factors. First, Turkey’s geothermal power plants vent non-condens- • Temperature and pressure data from observation wells to able gases into the atmosphere, depleting CO2 concentrations in the establish conditions in the reservoir reservoirs. Second, in many cases there is good hydraulic connectiv- • Well-head pressure ity between reinjection and production wells. Several fields located in • Indicators of the volume of the reservoirs (including aerial extent, the Büyük Menderes and Gediz grabens clearly show this behavior. thickness, and porosity). Invasions of cooler, less gaseous peripheral waters into the reservoir in response to production-induced drawdown may also occur, 6 M A N A G I N G C O 2 E M I S S I O N S F R O M G E OT H E R M A L P O W E R G E N E R AT I O N I N T U R K E Y The methodology used to develop models of CO2 emission Figure 3. Predictive CO2 emission models for the Büyük changes from geothermal wells involves the application of decline Menderes and the Gediz grabens curve analysis, an approach developed from empirical evidence in the oil and gas industry that has previously been used with good Büyük Menderes graben results on geothermal wells (Herrera Martinez et al. 2016). In our 1,600 Our models predict (with study, however, since data completeness varied from field to field 1,400 a 95 percent confidence and some measurements lacked information on the ratio of CO2 to non-condensable gases, we used Dalton’s Law (otherwise known as 1,200 Model interval) that for a the partial pressure method) in some cases to calculate CO2 content 95% prediction interval geothermal power plant 1,000 gCO2/kWh depending on provided well data. in the Büyük Menderes or 800 Gediz grabens showing Can the evolution of CO2 emissions from geothermal 600 initial emissions of 1,200 power plants be predicted? 400 gCO2/kWh, the levels after CO2 emissions can be predicted within limits, but 25 years of operation will they must be monitored 200 be 0 gCO2/kWh for the first 0 From the data on the 14 geothermal power plants collected under region and 95 gCO2/kWh 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 the World Bank–financed Geothermal Development Project, we used Months for the second, with an decline curve analysis to develop predictive models for the Büyük upper prediction interval Menderes and Gediz grabens (figure 3). Predicting future values entails uncertainty, which may be due to a variation in the modeling proce- of 200 gCO2/kWh and 166 Gediz graben dure or to the natural variation of measured CO2 emissions. The mod- gCO2/kWh, respectively. 1,200 els predict (with a 95 percent prediction interval) that for a geothermal power plant in the Büyük Menderes or Gediz grabens showing initial 1,000 emissions of 1,200 gCO2/kWh, the levels after 25 years of operation will be 0 gCO2/kWh for the first region and 95 gCO2/kWh for the second, Model 800 95% prediction interval with an upper prediction interval of 200 gCO2/kWh and 166 gCO2/kWh, gCO2/kWh respectively. This means that a plant in Büyük Menderes with initial emissions of 1,200 gCO2/kWh is predicted to emit between 0 and 200 600 gCO2/kWh after 25 years of operation, with the most likely value being on the lower side. A plant in Gediz with the same initial emissions is 400 predicted to emit between 30 and 166 gCO2/kWh after 25 years of operation, the most likely value being 95 gCO2/kWh. 200 Using these models for the 14 analyzed power plants, the power-weighted average emissions after 5, 10, 20, and 30 years 0 of geothermal production were predicted to be 247, 146, 79, and 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 36 gCO2/kWh, respectively, assuming production levels are kept Months constant. Arithmetic average emissions for the same period were Source: Authors’ original analysis. estimated to be 142, 68, 45, and 24 gCO2/kWh (figure 4). 7 M A N A G I N G C O 2 E M I S S I O N S F R O M G E OT H E R M A L P O W E R G E N E R AT I O N I N T U R K E Y Figure 4. Power weighted and average decline in CO2 emissions Figure 6. Historical and projected evolution of CO2 emission for 14 geothermal power plants, 2019–49 factors for a geothermal power plant in the Gediz graben 700 600 Actual (recorded) emission factor 600 Model Power weighted 500 95% prediction interval One of the main challenges 500 Average gCO2/kWh to accessing financing for 400 400 geothermal power plants in 300 gCO2/kWh Turkey has been high initial 300 200 CO2 emissions. The World 100 Bank study presented in 200 0 this Live Wire demonstrates 2019 2024 2029 2039 2049 100 that emissions drop significantly over time Source: Authors’ original analysis. 0 and that average lifetime emission factors at Turkish 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Figure 5. Historical and projected evolution of CO2 emission plants are predicted to be Years since commissioning factors for a geothermal power plant in the Büyük Menderes below the global average of graben Source: Authors’ original analysis. 122 gCO2/kWh. 1,400 Actual (recorded) emission factor Model, unit 1 The modeling confirmed that CO2 emission factors from these 1,200 Model, unit 2 geothermal projects in the Büyük Menderes and Gediz grabens 95% prediction interval declined significantly over time, as observed in the historical data, and 1,000 that they are expected to continue falling, though at slower rates. Figures 5 and 6 show the historical and projected evolution of 800 gCO2/kWh CO2 emissions for two of the geothermal power plants supported by the World Bank–financed Geothermal Development Project. 600 Our study demonstrates that CO2 emissions can be predicted. However, continuous monitoring is necessary in order to gather 400 actual data, and analyses should be regularly updated. One of the main challenges to accessing financing for geother- 200 mal power plants in Turkey has been high initial CO2 emissions. The World Bank study presented in this Live Wire demonstrates that 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 emissions drop significantly over time and and that average lifetime Years since commissioning emission factors at Turkish plants are predicted to be below the global average of 122 gCO2/kWh. We recommend a follow-up study Source: Authors’ original analysis. to monitor how actual CO2 emission factors continue to evolve for 8 M A N A G I N G C O 2 E M I S S I O N S F R O M G E OT H E R M A L P O W E R G E N E R AT I O N I N T U R K E Y MAKE FURTHER each location and power plant to verify the findings of this report and Akın, S. 2017. “Estimation of long-term CO2 decline during operation CONNECTIONS adjust the predictive models over time. It would also be beneficial of geothermal power plants.” International Geothermal Congress, for the Turkish geothermal sector to gather data from additional geo- Turkey, Izmir, 22-24 May 2017. Live Wire 2014/5. “Understanding thermal power plants, including those in new locations, to develop Aksoy, N., Ö.S. Gök, H. Mutlu, and G. Kılınç. 2015. “CO2 emission CO2 Emissions from the Global predictive models for less-studied geothermal locations. from geothermal power plants in Turkey.” Proceedings of World Energy Sector,” by Vivien Foster The findings of the World Bank study will enable developers to Geothermal Congress, Melbourne, Australia, April 19–25. and Daron Bedrosyan. estimate, for the Büyük Menderes and Gediz grabens, the average Bertani, R., and I. Thain. 2002. “Geothermal power generating plant lifetime emission factors of geothermal projects, and thus prove CO2 emission survey.” IGA News 49: 1–3. Live Wire 2017/71. “Mobilizing to financing institutions the environmental benefits of geothermal Fridriksson, T., A. Mateos, P. Audinet, and Y. Orucu. 2016. “Greenhouse Risk Capital to Unlock the Global energy in Turkey. gases from geothermal power production.” ESMAP Technical Potential of Geothermal Power,” Report 009/16, World Bank, Washington, DC. by Roberto La Rocca, Peter This Live Wire was peer reviewed by Pierre Audinet and Joeri de Wit. Haizlip, J. R., F. T. Haklidir, and S. K. Garg. 2013. “Comparison of Johansen, Laura Berman, and reservoir conditions in high non-condensable gas geothermal Migara Jayawardena. References systems.” Proceedings, Thirty-Eighth Workshop on Geothermal AfDB (African Development Bank), Asian Development Bank, Reservoir Engineering, Stanford University. Live Wire 2017/81. “The Effects Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, European Bank for Herrera Martinez, A., H. Groenenberg, P. Noothout, J. Koornneef, T. of Carbon Limits on Electricity Reconstruction and Development, European Investment Bank, Baloglu, G. Rencberoglu, O. Ozbulak, and S. Akın. 2016. “Assessing Generation and Coal Production: Inter-American Development Bank Group, Islamic Development the use of CO2 from natural sources for commercial purposes An Integrated Planning Approach Bank, and World Bank Group. 2020. 2019 Joint Report on in Turkey.” European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Applied to Poland,” by Debabrata Multilateral Development Banks’ Climate Finance. London: London. Chattopadhyay, Jacek Filipowski, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Lovekin, J. W. 2000. “The economics of sustainable geothermal Michael Stanley, and Samuel Akin, S., Y. Orucu, T. Fridriksson, E. Hallgrimsdottir. 2020. development.” Proceedings of the World Geothermal Congress ‘’Characterizing the declining CO2 emissions from Turkish 2000, Kyushu–Tohoku, Japan, May 28–June 10. Oguah. geothermal power plants.” Unpublished report, World Bank. MTA (General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration). 2019. Live Wire 2019/99. “Beyond https://www.mta.gov.tr/v3.0/arastirmalar/jeotermal-enerji-arastir- the Last Mile: Piloting High- malari, accessed April 25, 2019. Efficiency, Low-Emissions Heating Technologies in Central Asia,” by Yabei Zhang, Norma Adams, and Crispin Pemberton-Pigott. Find these and the entire Live Wire archive at www.worldbank.org/energy/ livewire. An invitation to World Bank Group staff Contribute to If you can’t spare the time to contribute to Live Wire but have an idea for a topic or case we should cover, let us know! We welcome your ideas through any of the following channels: Do you have something to say? 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