FILE Copy DOCUMENT OF INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Not For Public Une Report No. 179 a-MA APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT MALAYSIA July 16, 1973 Transportation Division Asia Region This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit - Malaysian Dollar (M$) US$1 - M$ 2.33 1/ M$ 1 - US$0.429 M$ 1 million - US$429,185 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES British/US System British/US Metric 1 mile (mi) - 1.6093 kilometers (km) 1 foot (ft) - 0.3048 meters (m) 1 square mile (mi2) . 2.5898 square kilometers (km2) 1 cubic yard (cu yd) - 0.7646 cubic meters (m3) 1 acre (ac) : 0.4047 hectares (ha) 1 long ton (l ton) - 1.0160 metric tons (m ton) 1 long ton (lg ton) - 1.1200 short tons (sh ton) 1 imperial gallon (IMg) - 4.545 liters (1) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADB - Asian Development Bank EPU - Economic Planning Unit ER - Economic Return GNP - Gross National Product HPU - Highway Planning Unit MOC - Ministry of Communications mph - Miles per hour MR - Malayan Railway MWP - Ministry of Works and Power PRD - Planning and Research Division FWD - Public Works Department UNDP - United Nations Development Programme VLD - Vallentine, Laurie and Davies vpd - Vehicles per day FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31 1/ From June 21, 1973 the Malaysian dollar haaffloated in relation to the US dollar. It is expected that the rate will be stabilized at X$ 2.33 - US$1, the rate that applied during the first two weeks of July. The previous rate was 4$ 2.54 * US$1. MALAYSIA APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ................................-1i1 I. INTRODUCTION ......................................... 1 A. The Project ..................................... B. Previous Transport Projects ..................... 1 C. Bank Group Transport Lending Strategy ........... 1 D. Project Preparation ............................. 1 II. THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR ....................... 2 A. The Country and its Economy ................... 2 B. The Modes ...................................... 3 C. Planning and Coordination ...................... 6 III. HIGHWAYS ................... ......................... 7 A. The Network ..................................... 7 B. Characteristics and Growth of Traffic ........... 7 C. Administration ................. o ................ 9 D. Highway Planning ................................ 10 E. Financing and Taxation .......................... 10 F. Highway Engineering ............................. 11 G. Highway Construction ............................ 11 H. Highway Maintenance ............................. 12 IV. THE PROJECT ......................................... 13 A. Description ..... ....... ......... 13 B. Cost Estimates and Bank Participation ........... 16 C. Execution ....................... 18 D. Financing ...................... 19 E. Disbursements ................................... 19 V. ECONOMIC EVALUATION .................................. 20 VI. RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................... 22 This report has been prepared by Messrs. H. J. Schlechtriem (Economist), R. Mulligan (EMENA Engineer), and H. R. Young (Engineer). -2- ANNEXES A. Description of Project Roads B. Description of Urban Studies TABLES * 1. Federal Government Investments in Transport During the First and Second Five-Year Plans 2. Annual Change in Length of Road Network, by Pavement Type and Responsible Authority 3. Motor Vehicle Registration 4. Road Expenditures, 1967-71 5. Revenues from Motor Vehicle Taxation 6. Highway Design Standards 7. Detailed Project Cost 8. Schedule of Estimated Disbursements 9. Average Daily Traffic Volumes on Project Roads 10. Typical Vehicle Operating Costs (Excluding Taxes) 11. Estimated Costs and Benefits 12. Economic Returns and Sensitivity Analysis CHART MAPS MALAYSIA APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1. The Federation of Malaysia covers the southern part of the Kra or Malay Peninsula (West Malaysia) and the northeastern part of Borneo (East Malaysia). West Malaysia's transport system is generally well-developed; East Malaysia has only limited land transport by road and rail. The high- way system totals some 11,000 mi (87% paved) in West Malaysia, and some 3,000 mi (19% paved) in East Malaysia. In an effort to improve road main- tenance, the Government will shortly embark on a Road Maintenance Study by consultants (to be Bank-financed under Loan 851-MA). In West Malaysia, the Government-owned Malayan Railways operates a total system of 1,036 mi and is presently carrying out a modernization program to increase its efficiency and regain financial viability; in East Malaysia rail services (by the Sabah State Railways) are being maintained until roads have been improved. The main ports in West Malaysia are Klang and Penang. Port facilities in Penang are adequate; those in Klang are presently being expanded. Long-term investment requirements in both ports are presently being studied. A port improvement program is underway in East Malaysia to bring its six major ports for seagoing traffic up to a satisfactory standard. There are eight airports in West Malaysia and nine in East Malaysia; an airport improve- ment program is underway. ii. The Second Malaysia Plan (1971-75) allocates a total of about M$ 1.2 billion, or 16% of all public development expenditures, to invest- ments in the transport sector. This is more than double the M$ 545 million spent on transport during the First Malaysia Plan (1966-70), which then represented 13% of total public investments. The transport part of the Second Malaysia Plan is based on the 1968 Malaysia Transport Survey, which was financed by UNDP with the Bank acting as executing agency. The Transport Survey and the Plan emphasize the improvement and extension of West Malaysia's existing transport facilities in all modes. In East Malaysia high priority is assigned to improving road and port facilities-and, FH T5fferegion's sparse population and-diffimIlt terrain,_to,providing air servie6 et6-kite -rei s The Government has now started a mid-tefteview of thd"larand anticipates an increase in the transport al ocation. The two main transport planning agencies have been strengthened by two UNDP-financed advisers. Among the transport policy matters which are presently under review are the road user charge system and the road licensing system. iii. The Bank is financing three transport projects in Malaysia: the first, a port project in Sabah in East Malaysia (Loan 774-MA, May 1971), the second, a railway project (Loan 799-MA, November 1971), and the third, an urban transport project (Loan 851-MA, May 1972) in West Malaysia. All three projects experienced slight initial delays in their execution but they are expected to be completed by their respective closing dates. iv. The presently proposed fourth transport project includes: (aL con- struction aid_Improvement of abo_t 90 mi of Malaysia's main highway (Route I) in the vicinity of Kuala Lumpur; (b) construction supervision by consultants; (c) retroactive financing of a supplementary feasibility study and detailed engineering of about 22 mi of Route I; (d) detailed engineering of about 200 mi of road; and (e)_two urban development studies. The construction element of the project is based on a highway feasibility study by consultants in 1971, which was UNDP-financed with the Bank acting as executing agency; detailed engineering, also by consultants for most of the works, was financed under Loan 851-MA (urban highway project). A supplementary feasibility study and additional detailed engineering were required to complete the preparation. Retroactive financing for this work, not to exceed US$100,000, is included in the Project. The project was appraised in December 1972 and January 1973; an updating mission was made in April 1973. v. The estimated cost of the project AUS37-.-2-mil.uon, with a proposed Bank participation of US$19.5 million, or 53%. Cost estimates for road construction are based on detailed quantity estimates and unit prices which were developed by the consultants for each work item and checked against bids received for recent civil works contracts. The costs of con- struction supervision, detailed engineering and urban studies are based on recent contracts for similar work in Malaysia. During loan negotiations, project cost estimates were reviewed in the light of bids for part of the works, received on June 18, 1973. vi. Responsibility for project execution, except for one urban study, will be vested in the Public Works Department (PWD) 'in the Ministry of Works -and Power(MWP), assisted by consultants for the construction supervision, one of the'urban studies and the detailed engineering. The Economic PlanjUng Unity,-wfhtIVi9 the Government's central planning agency, will be responsible for the gther-urbamrdevelopment-study.-- The study will be carried out by consultants. Contracts for the civil works will be awarded after international competitive bidding. Where appropriate, contracts are being tailored to the financing and working capabilities of the local construction industry. The bids opened on June 18, 1973 indicated a good response from local contractors for the smaller contract. The Government had the consultants study the possibility of using labor-intensive construction methods, but because of the higher cost and longer construction period involved, the Government decided to tender the contracts in the conventional way. Even so, the project will provide direct employment for about 2,000 men over the three-year construction period. vii. The proposed Bank loan of US$19.5 million will finance the foreign exchange cost of the project. Loan funds will be disbursed on the basis of 55% of the cost of road construction and improvement (the estimated foreign exchange component for this item) and the actual foreign exchange cost of consultants' services (estimated at 35% for construction supervision; 30% for the detailed engineering of Route I; 50% for the detailed engineering of new roads and at 45% for the urban studies). The Government will finance the local cost of the project, estimated at US$17.7 million. - iii - viii. Construction and improvement of the road sections under this project will benefit major segments of the population both by lowering cost of personal travel and prices of consumer goods. The project will also contrib- ute to a balanced development of the Klang Valley Region and, in the form of reduced transport and travel costs, will offer inducements for industries and other enterprises to settle away from the congested capital. In this way, the project will indirectly support the Government's policy of restrained growth for the capital area. Based on vehicle operating cost and time savings, and reductions in road maintenance cost, the economic rates of return for the individual sections range between 20 and 29%. ix. The project is suitable for a Bank loan of US$19.5 million to the Government of Malaysia for a 24-year term, including four years grace, reflecting the estimated economic life of the construction element of the project.  MALAYSIA APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT I. INTRODUCTION A. The Project 1.01 The Government of Malaysia has asked the Bank to assist in financ- ing a project consisting of: (a) the construction and Improvement of about 90 mi of Route I, West Malaysia's main highway, and construction supervision by consultants; (b) retroactive financing of consulting services for a supplementary feasibility study and detailed engineering of about 22 mi of Route I; (c) consulting services for detailed engineering of about 200 mi of roads; and (d) consulting services for high priority urban development studies (including some detailed engineering) In the Kuala Lumpur area and two secondary growth centers. B. Previous Transport Projects 1.02 This proposed highway project will be the fourth Bank-financed transportation project in Malaysia. The first was a_port_project in Sabah (Loan 774-MA of May 1971), the second a railway gqject (Loan 799-MA of November 1971), and the third an urban Lg y AtL(Loan 851-MA of May 1972). Both the port project (para 2.13) and the railway project (para 2.10) are slightly behind schedule because of the contractors' mobilization difficulties and the railway's unfamiliarity with the Bank's procurement procedures, respectively. The urban project (para 3.02) had some initial delays because pre-contractual works by the Government took longer than anticipated. However, AUL1tr eroietar-a-rammpe ly-expected to be completed by their respective closing dates C. Bank Group Transport Lending Strategy 1.03 The transport part of the Second Malaysia Plan is based on the 1968 Malaysia Transport Survey which was UNDP-financed with the Bank acting as executing agency, and which was carried out by R. R. Nathan Associates Inc. (US). All previous Bank transport projects, as well as this project, were identified by the Transport Survey, and serve to increase the economic efficiency of transport and to expand the capacity of existing transport facilities in support of the Second Malaysia Plan. D. Project Preparation 1.04 The Transport Survey concluded that the main traffic_atees connecting the economic centers of the west 5F-sfTo West Malaysia require additional capacity. A Bank mission in August 196 idebtified, on the basis of the Transport Survey, four high priority sections of Route I for feasibility study. The feasibility study, financed by the UNDP under Phase II of the Transport Survey, and carried out in 1971 by the Australian firm, Vallentine, Laurie and Davies (VLD), determined the improvements required in these -2- sections. Detailed engineering is in progress by the same firm, partly financed under Loan 851-MA. Two of the four sections are proposed for construction under this project (para 4.02). The urban aspects of the improvements proposed in the vicinity of Kuala Lumpur were reviewed by the Klang Valley Regional Planning and Development Study, UNDP-financed with the Bank acting as executing agency, and carried out by Shankland, Cox Partnership (UK). 1.05 The urban development studies would be eligible for financing by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). However, the UNDP funds for Malaysia are fully committed and there is no provision for new studies. The Government has confirmed its intention not to request changes in the program allocation and, consequently, has requested Bank financing for these high priority studies. 1.06 This report is based on information provided by the Government ,and consultants and on findings of appraisal missions by Messrs. H._J. Schlechtriem (Economist) in December 1972 and R. J. Mulligan (Engineer) in January 1973. An updating mission consisting of Messrs. H. R. Young and Schlechtriem was made in April 1973, at which time, also, Messrs. R. Venkateswaren (Economist) and S. Hara (Economist) of the Urban Projects Department completed the appraisal of the urban studies included in the project. II. THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR A. The Country and its Economy 2.01 'The Federation of Malaysia comprises 13 states in two separate geographical areas of Southeast Asia. Eleven states are on the Kra or Malay Peninsula (West,Malaysia, 51,000 2mi2) and two on the northeastern part of Borneo (East Malaysia, 77,000 mi ), some 400 mi to the east across the South China Sea. Malaysia has land borders with Thailand to the north on the peninsula, and with Indonesia to the south on Borneo. It is separated by a narrow sea channel from the island state of Singapore at the southern tip of the peninsula which, until 1965, was part of the Federation. Of the total population of 11.3 million, 9.5 million live in West Malaysia and 1.8 million in East Malaysia; average population growth is 2.6% p.a. Topography in both West and East Malaysia is generally rugged, making internal transport often difficult and costly. 2.02 A central mountain chain divides West Malaysia into the west coast region and the east co&st region. Protected by the mountains against severe monsoons, and bordering on one of the world's most important shipping routes (the Straits of Malacca), the west coast has developed faster than the rest of_the-aduntry. Two-thirds of the population live there and work either in -the main urban centers where industries have grown or in the important agri- cultural and mining areas which produce, among other things, rubber and tin - 3 - for export. The states on the east coast and in East Malaysia are less advanced and rely mainly on timber and palm oil production, and fishery. 2.03 The objectives of the Second Malaysia Elan_(1971-75) are to-reduce income disparltes between the regions and, since Malays represent the largest groupiW--the-ucn iity and are mainly employed in low income rural occupations, to increase both their income and ownership of the means of production. Fur- ther development of the manufacturing and agricultural sectors is expected to be the main contributor in the Government's strategy to achieve these objectives. Transport has a supporting but essential role in this strategy. The Bank's December 1972 economic mission forecasts GNP to grow at 6.3% p.a. in real terms, if Malaysia's export markets develop as envisaged. This is slightly higher than the 6.0% achieved during 1965 to 1970. Correspondingly, per capita income would rise from M$ 981 in 1971 to M$ 1,086 by 1975. B. The Modes 2.04 Reflecting West Malaysia's general pattern of settlement and level of economic activity, the main transport corridor is along the west coast. Of particular importance are the flows of foreign trade. Historically, a large share of exports and imports was channelled through Singapore. Its withdrawal from Malaysia resulted in a major shift of traffic to the ports of Klang, west of Kuala Lumpur, and Penang in the northwest. It also con- tributed to the growth of the economic centers along the west coast, partic- ularly Kuala Lumpur, Johore Bahru, Ipoh and Penang, which took over trading and production functions previously in Singapore. The industries in these centers increase the needs for intercommunication among them. Outside the west coast corridor, transport flows are relatively small and consist mainly of regional products moving to the west coast and consumer goods in the opposite direction. The development of the east coast, including large land development schemes presently underway or in preparation, will increase the importance of these flows in the future. 2.05 The economies of the two East Malaysian states, Sabah and Sarawak, are made up of a number of rather isolated developments along their coast with little interrelationships. The main demand for internal transport is to bring raw materials to the coast for export. Movement of goods between East and West Malaysia mainly consists of the supply of consumer goods to the East. 2.06 West Malaysia's transport system is generally well-developed and consists of highways, railways, ports, coastal shipping, and aviation. The system is adequate to meet present demand. Statistics on the relative im- portance of the individual modes are scarce at present, but will be avail- able in the near future as a result of a comprehensive transport data collec- tion effort by the Planning and Research Division (PRD) of the Ministry of Communications (MOC). The Transport Survey estimated for 1967 the total freight transport output at over 2.0 billion ton-miles, of which 58% was performed by roads, 32% by rail, and 10% by coastal shipping. East Malaysia's transport system is still underdeveloped; it consists mainly of ports, coastal and river shipping, and aviation. Land transport by rail and road is limited. The different modes are described in detail below. -4- Highways 2.07 West Malaysia has about 11,000 mi of roads, serving 716,000 motor vehicles; East Malaysia has about 3,000 mi of roads and 80,000 motor vehicles. Details on the highway sector are given in Chapter III. aiwAays 2.08 The Government-owned Malayan Railway (MR) is the largest railway enterprise in Malaysia. In addition, there are some 40 short private rail- way lines in West Malaysia, serving mining developments and plantations, and the Sabah State Railway in East Malaysia. The Sabah State Railway carries mostly passengers between the coast and the interior; its services are highly uneconomical, but are being maintained until roads have been improved to carry the traffic. These road improvements are presently under study. 2.09 MR operates a system of 1,036 route mi meter gauge and mostly single track lines. The system is roughly Y-shaped, with Singapore at the base and the two arms extending from Gemas (137 mi north of Singapore), one along the west coast and the other through the central part of the peninsula, which link with the Thai railway system at the border. Freight traffic has been increasing at about 6% p.a. during the 1960's, but declined in 1970 and 1971 by 5% p.a. to 674 million ton-mi. Passenger traffic decreased steadily since 1960 to 334 million pass-mi in 1969, but increased in 1970 and 1971 to 402 million pass-mi in the latter year. MR incurred deficits since 1966 and revenues covered only 89% of operating expenses in 1970. 2.10 With Bank assistance (Loan 799-MA), MR has embarked on a modernization program that includes dieselization, replacing obsolete rolling stock, improv- ing planning and traffic costing, and gradually reducing the labor force. The objectives of the program are to increase efficiency and to regain financial viability for MR. 2.11 The country's main highway, Route I, roughly parallels the west coast line of the railway. The consultants investigated the possible impact of the proposed road improvements of Route I on the distribution of traffic between road and rail in the feasibility study. They found that no signifi- cant changes are to be expected. Most of the railway's freight traffic consists of long haul bulk traffic, for which it has significant cost advantages over road transport. Since rail passenger transport (third class) is over 50% more expensive than bus (M4.7 per mi vs. M 3.0), and slower, a major portion of rail passengers diverted to road transport in the past. The balance of traffic between road and rail now appears to have stabilized and the proposed road improvements are unlikely to affect the remaining railway passenger traffic. However, the railway will carry a diminishing proportion of total passenger zraffic in the future. -5- Ports 2.12 Port Klang and Port Penang are West Malaysia's largest ports. Both are administered by autonomous port authorities and handled in 1971, 3.9 million and 3.2 million tons respectively. The facilities in Klang are presently being expanded; those in Penang are generally adequate. Long-term investment requirements in both ports are presently being studied. Additional terminals include Port Dickson, Malaysia's petroleum port, and a number of small ports of regional importance. To accelerate the development of the east coast, the Government plans the construction of a new port in Kuantan on the east coast, and is constructing one in Johore Bahru opposite Singapore. 2.13 East Malaysia has six major ports, handling seagoing traffic: Kota Kinabalu, Labuan, Sandakan and Tawau in Sabah, and Kuching and Sibu in Sarawak. Together they have a throughput of about 1.5 million tons of general cargo. In addition, there are several minor ports and timber load- ing points. New facilities in Kota Kinabalu and Sandakan are presently being built with Bank assistance (Loan 774-MA); those in Kuching are being improved with assistance from the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Coastal Shipping 2.14 Coastal shipping is no longer an important mode of transportation in West Malaysia; it is still used for some shipments of petroleum and palm oil, particularly along the east coast. Coastal shipping is of more signi- ficance in East Malaysia, both for internal movements and for the supply of consumer goods from West Malaysia or Singapore. Aviation 2.15 Two of West Malaysia's eight airports, Kuala Lumpur and Penang, are served by foreign airlines; East Malaysia has nine airports, three of which are served by regional carriers. Demand for air travel Increased at about 18% p.a. between 1962 and 1970 and is higher in East Malaysia because of the lack of adequate land transport. In 1970, West Malaysia's airports handled a total of 818,000 passengers, including 513,000 in Kuala Lumpur; East Malaysian airports handled 932,000. The Government recently had an airport master plan study carried out by consultants and has embarked on an airport improvement program. The ADB is assisting in financing the ongoing extension of Penang airport. The feasibility of feeder airline service in West Malaysia (involving construction of a number of small airfields) is presently being investigated. 2.16 The Malaysia Airline System provides domestic services and flights to neighboring Thailand, Indonesia and Singapore, and also to Hong Kong. The company was set up in December 1971 after the Malaysia-Singapore Airline was dissolved, and operates seven Boeing 737 on international routes (flights between West and East Malaysia are international because of intermediate stops in Singapore), nine Fokker F27-500 on shorter domestic routes and three small Britten Norman Islander aircraft on feeder services in East Malaysia. - 6- C. Planning and Coordination 2.17 The Transport Survey which reviewed all aspects of transport plan- ning, operational policies and organization, identified investment require- ments up to 1975. The Government generally accepted the Survey recommenda- tions, implementation of many of which is well underway, partly financed with UNDP assistance under Phase II of the Survey. 2.18 The MOC has the primary responsibility for transport planning and policy. Through its own departments, or through its supervisory role over Government enterprises, it is concerned with the development of all modes of transport, except highways. Highway planning is done by the Highway Planning Unit (HPU) in the Ministry of Works and Power (MWP). 2.19 The MOC is assisted and advised in carrying out its responsibil- ities by the PRD. Both the HPU and the PRD have been strengthened by UNDP- financed advisers. The Government intends to continue the advisory services under bilateral financing, when the present contracts expire in July this year. During loan negotiations, these arrangements were discussed and confirmed. The PRD is making good progress towards becoming a leading force in transport planning, but much of its staff is not sufficiently experienced and the continuation of the advisory services is required to consolidate past training efforts. Collaboration between the PRD and the HPU is good and projects involving highways and other modes are being dealt with jointly. The Economic Planning Unit (EPU), which is the Government's central planning agency, supervises the implementation of the Plan (para 2.03) and takes a broad interast in transport planning decisions. 2.20 The distribution of traffic among the different modes of transport is determined by their relative service advantages and prices. There is no evidence of any significant misallocation of traffic between modes. Strict regulations of road transport, however, have led to an expansion of "own account" trucking to the disadvantage of public trucking and, thereby, to some overinvestment in vehicles (para 3.08). 2.21 Public transport investments in the Second Malaysia Plan total about M$ 1.2 billion (Table 1), or about 16% of all public development expenditures. This is more than double the amount spent during the First Malaysia Plan (1966-1970), when Government deferred major investment decisions uantil the results of the Transport Survey were available. A substantial portion (about 40%) of the transport investment in the Plan is expected to be financed from external sources (IBRD, ADB, and bilateral aid programs). The Second Malaysia Plan follows the basic investment pattern set by the Survey, which placed emphasis on improving and expanding West Malaysia's existing transport facilities in all modes, and assigned in East Malaysia high priority to improving road and port facilities and, in view of the region's sparse populatlin and difficult terrain, to providing air services to remote areas. Roads (including PWD equipment investments) represent 67% of the total transport investment in West Malaysia and 56% in East Malaysia. The Government has now started a mid-term review of the Plan and anticipates an increase in the transport allocation. -7- III. HIGHWAYS A. The Network 3.01 West Malaysia's network comprises about 11,000 mi of roads, of which 87% are paved; East Malaysia's network comprises about 3,000 mi, of which only 19% are paved (Table 2). Roads are classified for administrative purposes into federal, state and local authority categories. A functional classification will be developed under the Road Maintenance Study which will start shortly (para 3.27). 3.02 The Transport Survey concluded that West Malaysia's road network, which is relatively well developed in its western part, is generally adequate for present needs. However,-it found that_the man ffic arteries con- necting the economic centers of the west coast require additional capaUty- to a cZD1odate traffic growth, and assigned highest priority to these im- provementi-- The Bank accepted the Survey recommendations and i cturrently assisting the Government in the widening to six lanes of a 6 mi section of Route II, the main connection from Kuala Lumpur westwards to the industrial and residential town of Petaling Jaya and further to the port of Klang (Loan 851-MA). Improvements of Route I, the main north-south artery, will be undertaken under the proposed project. Outside the west coast corridor, the Government is giving emphasis to improving east-west connections, partly within the context of regional development programs. The ADB is assisting the Government in financing the construction of an east-west highway parallel to the Thai border (Grik to Jeli) and improvement of Route II from Kuala Lumpur to the east. Most of the roads in East Malaysia are in the areas served by the ports and the Government's efforts focus on interconnecting these roads. B. Characteristics and Growth of Traffic 3.03 West Malaysia's motor vehicle fleet grew at an average annual rate of 10% between 1966 and 1971 (Table 3). About 716,000 vehicles were registered in 1971; more than half of this number are motorcycles, which also are the fastest growing vehicle category. Some 90% of the fleet is concentrated in the west coast states, with about 30% in the State of Selangor in which Kuala Lumpur is located. Motor vehicles are in ample supply from local assembly plants. Import of motor vehicles into West Malaysia is regulated and subject to protective import duties, amounting roughly to the difference between the prices of locally produced vehicles (including taxes) and the cif prices of imports. 3.04 In East Malaysia, the motor vehicle fleet increased at a slightly faster rate (11% p.a.) and totalled about 80,000 (including 24,000 motor- cycles) in 1971. Most of the vehicles are located in the two state capitals. 3.05 The distribution of traffic on West Malaysia's road network reflects the concentration of the vehicle fleet on the west coast. Traffic on most sections of Route I in 1970 was above 4,000 vpd; this compares with 1,500 vpd on the main road along the east coast, and between 1,700 and - 8 - 4,400 vpd on the main east-west link. Traffic growth rates are lower on the west coast (6 to 8% p.a.) than in the other parts (15 to 18% p.a.). Roads in East Malaysia are lightly trafficked, with volumes generally below 500 vpd. 3.06 Public transport of both passengers and goods is strictly regulated in West Malaysia, but not in East MlayfiA, The Road Transport Licensing Board, under the MOC, administers a complicated licensing system. For intercity passenger transport, the most important licenses are those for ouses and taxis. Bus licenses cover routes, schedules and maximum fares; taxi licenses cover maximum fares only. Maximum fares are fixed on the basis of M 10/passenger-mile for buses and M/40/mi for taxis (4 seats). Services seem generally adequate and actual fares are lower than the maximum rates because of competition. 3.07 Licenses for goods transport are divided among "hire and reward" carriers (A licenses); carriers for own goods (C licenses); and carriers both for "hire and reward" and own goods (B licenses). Issuance of B licenses has now been discontinued and B license holders are being reassigned to either "A" or "C" category. Operations under A licenses are restricted to zones (four in West Malaysia), but permits for interzonal movements are granted freely. 3.08 Changes in the -mplementation of the licensing system during the 1960's resulted in distortions of the road industry. To achieve the objective of an ownership racial balance in the road transport industry, most applica- tions by non-Malays for A licenses were rejected. Few Malays applied, how- ever, partly because of lack of experience and tradition and partly because of difficulties in gaining access to finance, business contracts, etc. The effect was to produce a slow increase in general trucking capacity and a disproportionate growth in private trucking (C licenses), for which licenses were granted without regard to race. Malay and non-Malay manu- facturing firms acquired their own trucks to overcome transport bottlenecks and to illegally engage in general trucking operations. The Government is aware of these problems and has taken some steps to ease the situation. The PRD is presently studying ways of converting the "proof of need" system of road licensing into a market-oriented one. Regulation of entry will probably be maintained to achieve a targeted minimum participation of Malays of 30% in the industry; but quotas will be set more in accordance with demand, and training programs, financial and technical assistance by the Government are likely to be stepped up. 3.09 Over two-thirds of the 3,700 trucking firms in West Malaysia are small, owning one vehicle only; there is also a large number of medium-sized firms (more than 100, wfth five or more trucks) especial.ly along the west coast. In 197-2--the-Government set up a jational Haulage Corporati9L with the objective of promoting th- Malay participatinin th&Ii i_mttfr. This is now the largest haulage enterprise in the country with a fleet of about 120 trucks, mostly 10-ton capacity. The Corporation caters particularly to port and timber traffic, generally in competition with the private sector f-rms. It enjoys some privileges such as permission to operate over the -9- whole country, and exemption permits for heavy trucks. It is still too early to assess the Corporation's ability and the impact it may have on the industry as a whole. C. Administration 3.10 The Ministry of Works and Power (MWP) is responsible for the planning, design and construction of federal roads, the maintenance of federal roads and the allocation of federal maintenance funds for state roads. Highway planning is done by its "ihway Planning Unit (HPU), which was recently placed !!der the S tary Goer.Ltfit i4sry. All other responsibilities ar with ic Works Department (PD) within the ;WP. There are 11 state PWDs within teste--govErHMenWEt Wt Malaysia, and one each in Sabah and Sarawak. In addition to its state-financed road commitments, each administers all federal road construction and maintenance work on an agency basis with the exceptions of the city of Kuala Lumpur and the Municipality of Ipoh, for which the Federal PWD retains responsibility. 3.11 The Federal WD is organized under a Director General who has two deputies, one responsible for development, the other for engineering services (see Chart). The Deputy Director General for Development super- vises five operational divisions: Roads, Buildings, Water Supplies, Education, and Armed Forces Works; the Deputy Director General for Engineer- ing Services has five divisions: Mechanical, Quantity Surveying, Electrical, Stores and Accounting. A Design and Research Division reports directly to the Director General. 3.12 The RoasDivision of the Federal PWD, is controlled by a Director and is divided into- fiveisedbar Planning, Design, Project Coordination, Implementation, and Federal Land-Development Projects. The Project Coordi- nation Section is responsible for major projects, the Implementation Section for federal road construction and improvements, and for maintenance. 3.13 There are some apparent anomalies in the organizational structure; for example, thgDesign.Section can engineer roads, but not bridges, which -aretlie responsibility of the Director General's Design and Research Division; the Materials Laboratory is similarly remote from the Roads Division, its largest customer. Nevertheless, the present organization functions well and makes good use of the limited staff available. 3.14 In general, the Roads Division functions efficiently; however, its operations are to some extent constrained 1h-staffLab9rappsoe- Seflior staff is generally competent and was ±r-y5ff trained under Phase II of the Transport Survey. Of the 80 established posts for engineers, half are vacant. Government has not been as successful in attracting the few local graduates to its service as the private sector because of its less competi- tive salaries; some preferential treatment given to indigenous races compared with other ethnic groups also inhibits recruitment. However, as a result of a vigorous recruitment campaign overseas, a number of expatriate engineers have entered Government service on three-year contracts. Additionally, experienced local engineers can now be hired on contract and all junior - 10- engineers are now required by law to serve two years with the Government after graduation. Some from this latter group are expected to remain in Government service after their compulsory service is completed. 3.15 The 13 stite PWDs are organized similarly to the Federal PWD. However, in the states a single engineer may have to deal with water sup- plies, and buildings, as well as roads, as in most cases the volume of work does not require a specialist in each field. The professional staffs are normally paid from the state budgets but are provided on rotating assignments trom the Federal PWD. Staff for specific projects are sometimes provided and paid by the Federal PWD. The Directors of the state PWDs have dual responsibilities: to the Federal PWD for the timely execution of federal construction and maintenance, and similarly to the state governments for work approved by the State Works Committees and Legislatures. In general, the state PWDs operate efficiently. D. Highway Planning 3.16 Since in its staff recruitment efforts the Government understand- ably gave emphasis to project execution, the HPU until recently, was under- staffed and as a result not a fully effective instrument of national highway planning. The UNDP-financed adviser to the HPU became involved more in the direct work of the Unit than in the training role for which he was intended. The staffing of the Unit row has improved and the Government intends con- tinuing the advisory assistance (para 2.19) to meet the need for staff training. 3.17 Considering its limited staff, the HPU does a sizeable amount of work. An extensive program of traffic surveys is carried out annually and, in close collaboration with the Roads Division, feasibility studies are made for projects, though not yet on a regular and systematic basis. The Unit also actively participates in the PRD's studies and collection of transport data. E. Financing and Taxation 3.18 Total expenditures on federal and state roads in West Malaysia increased from M$ 64.4 million in 1967 to M$ 90.6 million in 1971, and in East Malaysia, from M$ 36.2 million to M$ 53.4 million (Table 4). Most of these expe44ture are financed through the federal budget, with the states being responsible only for the administrative cost incurred in the state PWDs and a minor part of maintenance and improvement expenditures. Budgets are prepared annually within the framework of the Second Malaysia Plan. The federal highway budget is prepared by the Director of Roads, in consultation with the HPU, for the Director General of the PWD. It is reviewed by the KWP before being approved by the Estimates Sub-Committee of the National Development Planning Council. State highway budgets are prepared by the Directors of the state PWDs and they are subject to approval by the res- pective State Works Committees and state legislatures. 3.19 Highway expenditures are financed from general budgetary resources, supplemented by domestic and foreign loans (para 2.21). Road user taxes are - 11 - not earmarked but form part of the general revenue. In West Malaysia, revenues from these taxes (Table 5) increased faster than road expenditures and in 1971 amounted to nearly five times the expenditures. Revenues in East Malaysia equaled the cost of administration and maintenance plus about half of the road development expenditures. The Transport Survey assessed the structure of existing taxes and their incidence on particular user groups and found that heavy vehicles were undercharged; e.g., the tax on diesel fuel is M$ 0.20/IMg as compared with M$ 1.40/IMg on gasoline. The PRD is presently reviewing the road user tax system. 3.20 Although the Government does not have an explicit policy for financing road expenditures by road tolls, it presently collects tolls on a 13 mi section of Route I between Tanjong Malim and Slim River (north of Kuala Lumpur) and at two bridges in the State of Johore. These tolls form an insignificant source of total road user revenue (less than 1%). Tolls may considerably reduce the benefits of the facilities to which they are applied. rng- loan negotiations the question -of tolls was discusaA and the Govexnment agreed that for the Sections of Route I In the project: it wQulAnot takrLAny measures which would adversely affect their economic utilization; and would not impose tolls or similar charges without prior consultation with the Bank. F. Highway Engineering 3.21 Geometric design standards for federal and state roads have recent- ly been revised to reflect modern traffic needs and are satisfactory. However, pavement design,s_based.on the legal maximum loading of eight long tons on a singli aili, which appears low. Because veh4le overloading ts-fairly common, particularly by timber lorries and fuel tankei 1- r -MYneance Study (para 3.27) will recommend, on the basis of an economic analysis, the optimum vehicle weights and axle loading to achieve the minimum overall economic cost of road transport. The pavement of the project roads is designed initially to carry projected traffic (of present axle loadings) over about a 10-year period until subseqent strengthening under maintenance operations, which is acceptable. * hould the Government decide to permit heavier vehicles on the roads as a result of the recommendations of the Study, a somewhat earlier strengthening of_th.pavement would be required. 3.22 The PWD Design Section prepares detailed plans for project execu- tion, and operates satisfactorily. However, in recent years shortage of staff has induced Government to employ the services of consulting firms for feasibility studies and project design. Foreign consulting engineers have been engaged for larger works and several are currently operating in the country. Increasing use is being made of the services of the few local firms, and this trend is expected to continue. G. Highway Construction 3.23 The Roads Division of the Federal PWD is responsible for the construction of all federal roads. It is directly responsible for these projects within Kuala Lumpur and, to the extent that staffing constraints permit, for some others of particular importance, such as the road sections - 12 - in this project. State PWDs execute the remainder. About 80% of all roadworks (exc*luding structures) are built by force account using the Federal and state PWDs' equipment fleets and permanent work force. The Federal and state PWDs hold about 1,600 items of major heavy construction equipment and employ a permanent labor force of about 5,000. With these resources, Govern- meat can execute about M$ 20 million of road construction a year. The quality of work Is generally good. 3.24 The Government wishes to foster the growth of a contracting in- dustry able to assume an increasing share of the expanding volume of road construction. Competent local contractors build about 95% of all reinforced concrete structural work, and the few local firms with earth-moving capabil- ities are being encouraged to better equip themselves for road construction operations. About 40 local contractors are prequalified for highway struc- tures and about 10 are capable of undertaking roadwork. This project will provide opportunities for the local industry to be awarded contracts of a size suited to its technical and financial capabilities. H. Highway Maintenance 3.25 The state PWDs maintain the highway network using funds provided by the Federal Government. The workload is divided among 49 district offices within the 13 states; these employ a total road maintenance labor force of about 8,000. Th.ze is no separate maintenance division within the Federal PWD, and maintenance matters are handled by the Implementation Section along with its other activities. Similarly, the state PWDs do not assign engineers specifically to maintenance duties; the work of each engineer is a mix of many different tasks. 3.26 in accordance with Malaysia's Constitution, the National Finance Council determines the maintenance allocations for state roads. These allocations are made on an arbitrary per mile basis which takes no account of actual maintenance needs. In 1970, the approved rate was raised from M$ 4,500/mi (the rate since 1960) to M$ 4,600/mi, excluding the cost of administration and equipment depreciation. Although the Federal PWD channels these funds to the states, it has no direct control over their expenditure beyond auditing the annual accounts. On the other hand, funds for federal road maintenance, which are budgeted separately, are not subjected to the same controa.I by the National Finance Council; funds may therefore be allo- cated where needed. The current expenditures on federal roads average 1$ 5,600/mi, excluding costs of administration and equipment depreciation, but J=cluding provision for resurfacing 10% of the network annually. Total expenditures only are recorded; no attempt is made to cost out different maintenance operations. 3.27 Although these allocations are generous by developing country standards, the results of maintenance efforts, while generally satisfactory, are not commensurate with them. There is a regular resurfacing program, but routine or preventive maintenance needs to be systematically organized. A Re- ia:ntenance Study, to be financed under Loan 851-MA, will be started shortly by the consulting firms, Kampsax (Denmark), and Sepakat Setia Perunding (Malaysia). It is designed to provide a detailed maintenance - 13 - program and is expected to identify needed organizational and operational improvements, as well as sta f training and equipment requirements, and propose methods for systematic planning and execution of maintenance works. During loan negotiations, the Government confirmed its intention to implement the study findings in consultation and agreement with the Bank. 3.28 The PWD's equipment fleet which is used for both maintenance and construction, is old (35% being more than 10 years old), but due to the excellent repair and overhaul facilities, is in relatively good condition. The Maintenance Study will determine whether it is feasible to replace the old vehicles earlier in order to reduce repair expenditures. IV. THE PROJECT A. Description 4.01 The Transport Survey identified_tLneed to impose and-expand the capacity of the extsting maiti-route on the west coast of Malaysia (Route I), and p r6dVcd the basis for the selection of hir high pieffit EtionA (see Map) to be further investigated by the Government's consultants, Vallentine Laurie and Davies (VLD) under a UNDP-financed feasibility study. After the study findings as to the type of improvement required were agreed by both the Government and the Bank, VLD also carried out the detailed engineering (para 4.07). 4.02 Two of the four sections (Sections I and II) are included in the present project; the other two have been deferred. Section III, which provides for the relocatin ofloate I north of Ipoh to a shorter alignment, was omitted because f_urther. technical investigations are required, including the location and design of a long tunnel and the selection of the best by- pass route around Ipoh. Section IV, covering the improvement of the approaches and thoroughfare of Butterworth, had to be deleted from the project because of unexpected right-of-way problems in the center of the town. 4.03 The proposed project comprises: (a) the construction and improvement of two section. of Federal Route I, totalling about 90 mi in leijEi,and supervision by consultants; (b) retroactive financing of consulting services for a supplementary feasibility study and detailed engineering of about 22 mi of Route I and connecting roads in the vicinity of Kuala Lumpur; (c) consulting services for the detailed engineering of about 200 mi of roads which may be considered for a futurYpbject; and (d) consulting services for high priority-wbandevylopment-6tudies (including some detailed engineering) in metropolitan Kuala Lumpur and two secondary growth centers. - 14 - Construction, Improvement and Supervision 4.04 Two separate sections (Annex A) of Federal Route I will be con- structed or improved: (a) Section I from Kuala Lumpur to Seremban in the south, which involves the wiening to. four lanes of about 3 mi, a bypass of about 1 mi and the imprgyeiment to acceptable geometfid standards and adequate pavement strength of about 13 mi of existing two-lane road and, on a parallel alignment, the construction of about 38 mi of four-lane divided expressway, about 3 ml of two-lane expressway, 5 mi of connecting and access roads, and two grade separated interchanges (first stage) at the Seremban end and in Kuala Lumpur; and (b) Section II, comprising about 23 mi of selected improvements to both the geometry and pavement strength of the existing two-lane road between Batu Caves on the northern outskirts of Kuala Lumpur and Mi 30 on Route I, about 2 mi of widening to four-lanes, and about 1 mi of connecting road between Kuala Lumpur and Batu Caves. 4.05 The highway sections traverse rolling to hilly terrain. The expressway in Section 7will be built on a new alignment while Section II involves mainly improvement to the existing road. No unusual soil conditions have been encountered except in the immediate vicinity of Kuala Lumpur, where tin dredges are still operating. Special care has been taken in selecting the alignment in these areas and in designing the road pavement structure. The consultants' designs conform to the PWD design standards (Table 6), which are acceptable. 4.06 The proposed works will satisfy traffic requirements in the most economical way. Initially the expressway will be tied into an existing four-lane (Sungal Besi) road by a traffic-signalled intersection. During loan negotiations, the Government gave assurances that it will widen the Sungai Besi road to provide additional road capacity from the end of the expressway Intp -the city. The ongoing Transport Studyfor Metroplitan Kuala Lumpur which is financed--mnde--the Bank's Urban Transport Project (Loan 851-MA) and being carried out by Wilbur Smith and Associates (US), will review the integration of the expressway into Metropolitan Kuala Lumpur. During loan negotiations the Government gave assurances that it-will, whilst taking into account other demands on its resources, formulate, in agreement with the Bank, a schedule for the implementation of the findings of the study acceptable to the Government and the Bank. The Transport Study will also indicate possfbilities of using the urban parts of the project roads for improved public transport. These recommendations, however, will concern the operation of the facility rnly and are not expected to affect the design, as presently proposed by the engineering consultants. - 15 - Detailed Engineering of Route I 4.07 The project provides for retroactive financing of foreign cost not to exceed US$100,000 for a supplementary feasibility study and for detailed eng#anering of about 22 mi of Route I and connecting roads in the vicinity of Kuala Lumpur. These studies were required to complete the preparation of the present project, aveid-tr carried out by VLD on terms and conditions approved by the Bank. They relate to works on which recommendations of the recently completed Klang Valley Regional Study had to be awaited. Detailed engineering for the remainder of the improvements of Route I, identified in the UNDP-financed feasibility study, was financed under the Bank's Urban Transport Project (Loan 851-MA). Detailed Engineering 4.08 The project includes detailed engineering by consultants for the construction and improvement of about 200 mi of high priority road sections to be considered for a future Bank road project. The sections will be selected jointly by the Government and the Bank on the basis of the current review of the Second Malaysia Plan to be completed by October 1973, and taking into consideration the results of feasibility studies by consultants and the HPU. Timing and procedures for selecting these roads were discussed and agreed during loan negotiations. Urban Studies 4.09 The project includes financing of two types of urban development studies: Town Development Studies for Kuantan on the east coast and for the region of North-East Negri Sembilan; and an Urban Road Improvement Study for Kuala Lumpur. 4.10 The Town Development Studies are an outcome of the Bank's continuous and deeper tvolvement in Malaysia's urban development following the completion of the Klang Valley Study which dealt with the nation's most advanced region. Thq studies will identify _easurew-for the development of secondary growth centers outside the Klang Valley Region and prepare high priority projects for implementation. Kuantan could be a major development center in the backward east coast of West Malaysia; North-East Negri Sembilan is located closely to Route I, and development of growth centers in its neighborhood could slow down or reverse out-migration flow towards Kuala Lumpur, and thus contribute to the achievement of the national objective of balanced growth. The Urban Road Improvemen Study will identify the measures required for improved traffic circulation and distribution in Metfopolitan Kuala Lumpur, including road connectionsqeen Route II leading into Kuala Lumpur from the west and the city's street system. The detailed engineering of high priority items will also be included. 4.11 The studies, which will be carried out by consultants are expected to result in future urban projects for which Bank financing may be requested. Tentative descriptions of the studies are given in Annex B. Outline terms - 16 - of reference for the Town Development Studies were agreed upon with the Government during loan negotiations. Information for the preparation of terms of reference for the Urban Road Improvement Study will be based on tie findings of the on-going Transport Study for Metropolitan Kuala Lumpur, which will be available in late 1973. B. Cost Estimates and Bank Participation 4.12 The project cost, including contingencies, is estimated at US$37.2 million. The Bank participation is US$19.5 million, about 53% of total. Costs are detailed in Table 7 and summarized below: - 17 - Summary Project Costs M$ (Million) US$ (Million) Foreign For- For- Exchange Project Element Local eIgn Total Local eign Total Component I. Construction and Improvement (a) Kuala Lumpur- Seremban (Section I) 20.7 25.4 46.1 8.9 10.9 19.8 55 (b) Kuala Lumper North to Mi 30 (Section II) .5A. _J LL .JUL .UL. 5. q 55 Sub-total 26.1 31.9 58.0 11.2 13.7 24.9 II. Supervision of I by Consultants 2.8 1.6 4.4 1.2 0.7 1.9 35 III. Feasibility study for expressway extension and detailed en- gineering of about 22 mi of Route I and connecting roads /a 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 30 IV. Detailed engineering of about 200 mi of road 2.5 2.5 5.0 1.1 1.1 2.2 50 V. Urban development studies 2.6 2.1 4.7 1.1 0.9 2.0 45 Sub-total II-V 8.4 6.4 14.8 3.6 2.8 6.4 VI. Contingencies: (a) Physical /b 3.4 3.8 7.2 1.5 1.6 3.1 (b) Price (i) Construction/c 2.4 2.9 5.3 1.1 1.2 2.3 (ii) Consulting services /d 0.6 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 Sub-total VI 6.4 7.2 13.6 2.9 3.0 5.9 Total Project Cost 40.9 45.5 86.4 17.7 19.5 37.2 53 /a To be financed retroactively. /b 10% on all items. /c 7.5% (5% p.a.) on local and 10.5% (7% p.a.) on foreign cost. /d 7.5% (5% p.a.) on local and foreign cost. - 18 - 4.13 Cost estimates for the works in Section I (except for the express- way extension) are based on bids opened on June 18, 1973. For the remaining road construction, the cost estimates are based on unit prices developed by VLD for each of the work items and checked against the Section I bids. The costs of construction supervision, detailed engineering, and urban studies are based on recent contracts for similar work in Malaysia. During loan negotiations, the project cost estimates were confirmed with the Government. 4.14 Contingency allowances of 19% for const ruction and 17.5% for consulting services are considered adequate. The 19% allowance on construction consists of 10% for possible quantity over-runs, 7.5% for local price increases (about 5% annually) and 10.5% for foreign price increases (about 7% annually) over the period from the close of bids to the completion of construction. The 17.5% allowance on the cost of consulting services provides for a possible 10% increase in the man-months required and 7.5% for price increases. 4.15 The foreign exchange component of construction and improvement works is estimated by VLD at 55% for foreign contractors and at 45% for local contractors; since the Section I bidding indicates about 90% of the civil works are likely to be carried out by foreign contractors, a 55% figure is acceptable. The foreign exchange component is estimated at 35% for construction supervision, 30% for detailed engineering of Route I, 50% for detailed engineering of new roads, and 45% for the urban studies. The reason for the relatively low foreign exchange cost for design and supervision is that a large number of Malays are employed on this work. C. Execution 4.16 The PWD will be responsible for the execution of all project elements, except the Town Development Studies which will be the responsibility of the EPU. Consultants will assist the PWD and the EPU by providing construction supervision and carrying out the studies and detailed engineering. The Government has indicated that it intends to engage VLD for the supervision work. During loan negotiations, assurances were obtained that the Government will employ qualified and experienced consultants for these purposes on terms and conditions satisfactory to the Bank, and that contracts forthe-proposed road construction and improvement will be awarded to prequalified contractors after international competitive bidding in accordance with the Bank's "Guidelines for Procurement". 4.17 Contract documents for the works in Section I (except for the expressway extension) were issued to prequalified contractors in March 1973; bids were opened on June 18, 1973. The first contracts should be awarded in September 1973. Detailed engineering for the remaining works is well advanced and bids will be called in August/September 1973. Contracts would range between about US$2.3 million and US$6.8 million in value, which would give local contractors opportunity to participate in the smaller contracts. Suitably prequalified contractors would be permitted to undertake more ThIn one contract section. Construction should be completed towards the end of 1976. During loan negotiations, the Government and the Bank - 19 - discussed and agreed on the timing of project execution and progress reporting requirements. 4.18 According to Government records, about 8% of the labor force in West Malaysia is unemployed. In its search for new means of job creation, the Government has been exploring the possibilities of using labor-intensive construction methods whenever possible. Both VLD and the EPU carried out an investigation to determine the likely effect that shadow pricing labor to 50% and 75% of current wage rates would have on a contractor's method of operation, contract construction period, and financial cost of the project. The investigation focussed on the two contracts of Section IV which seemed particularly suited because their compact nature and their proximity to the labor markets in Butterworth and George Town eliminated the need for contractors to house labor on the construction site. 4.19 The Study recommended against the use of labor-intensive construction techniques because of higher cost and longer construction period, and confirmed recent findings of Bank studies elsewhere on the subject that labor-intensive methods are not feasible for construction works which involve haulage of materials over relatively long distances. Also labor costs in Malaysia are comparatively high and contractors, even at a shadow rate for labor of 50%, would find the use of equipment more economical. The Government concurred with the consultants' recommendation and decided to tender the works in the conventional way. With normal construction methods, the contracts financed under this project will provide direct employment for about 2,000 men over the three-year construction period. 4.20 The Government has adequate power to acquire the right-of-way needed for the new road construction; acquisition is already well in hand. During loan negotiations, assurances were obtained from the Government that it will take all action necessary to obtain all the land needed for the roads to be constructed before individual construction contracts are awarded. 4.21 While the ecological effects of the road improvement and construction were not investigated in the feasibility studies, they were considered in the Klang Valley Regional Study. No adverse effects are expected from the proposed road works. D. Financing 4.22 The Bank loan of US$19.5 million will cover the foreign exchange costs of the project; the Government will meet the local cost of US$17.7 million. E. Disbursements 4.23 Disbursements from the Loan Account will be on the basis of 5Zof the total cost of construction and improvment a.And 100%wofr ai ' n costs of conaultants' services. Based on these percentages, and on the forecast of project completion (para 4.14), a Schedule of Estimated Disbursements (Table 8) has been prepared. Surplus funds remaining in the Loan Account after completion of the project will be cancelled. - 20 - V. ECONOMIC EVALUATION 5.01 The project is to improve and expand Route I, Malaysia's main highway, in the vicinity of Kuala Lumpur. The existing highway has sub- standard geometric and technical characteristics and lacks the capacity to handle traffic at reasonable costs. Kuala Lumpur's population has been growing at 2.8%, a rate only slightly higher than the national average, during the last 15 years and is now 450,000. However, the area around the capital developed rapidly. About 1.2 million people live in the Klang Valley Region, which includes the industrial and residential satellites of Petaling Jaya and Shah Alam, and Port Klang to the west of the capital, and the rural towns of Rawang in the north and Kajang in the south; about 25% of West Malaysia's GDP is generated there. 5.02 The proposed construction of a four-lane expressway and limited improvements to the existing road between Kuala Lumpur and Seremban and the short-term improvements north of Kuala Lumpur will benefit major segments of the population, both by lowering cost of personal travel and prices of consumer goods. The project will also contribute to a balanced development of the Klang Valley Region and, in the form of reduced transport and travel costs, offer inducements for industries and other enterprises to settle away from the congested capital. In this way, the project will indirectly support the Go-ernment's policy of restrained growth for the capital area. Detailed descriptions of the road sections are given in Annex A. 5.03 The Government is carefully planning and directing the growth of Kuala Lumpur and the Bank is closely associated with this process. The recently completed Klang Valley Regional Study (para 1.04) reviewed the development potential of the Klang Valley Region and provided the Government with a comprehensive plan for its development up to 1990, corresponding to the Government's social and economic policy objectives. The Transport Study for Metropolitan Kuala Lumpur (para 4.06) will provide the Government with a comprehensive plan of investment and policy recommendations to overcome the city's traffic problem. The urban development studies included in this project (paras 4.09-4.11) will continue this effort, but also will extend to other urban growth centers in West Malaysia. 5.04 The project civil works were identified in the VLD feasibility study as the initial investments needed in an optimum construction program to accommodate traffic in the related sections up to the year 1990. The consultants investigated the possibilities of phased upgrading of the existing roads and construction of new roads and compared alternative courses of action in terms of their discounted overall costs of road use, maintenance and construction. The Klang Valley Regional Study reviewed the results of the VLD feasibility study and proposed a future major road system for the Region, which includes the Seremban expressway as an integral part. A subsequent supplementary feasibility study (also carried out by VLD) identIfied the parts of the system which warrant inmediate implementation and which are proposed in this project to provide access from the expressway into the city. - 21 - 5.05 The VLD traffic forecasts for the rural road sections (Table 9) are based on a detailed traffic survey carried out in 1970 and, for passenger traffic, on projections of population, vehicle ownership and per capita income in a total of 37 zones of West Malaysia and, for goods traffic, on projections of production and consumption of major commodities. Traffic arising from large development schemes was assessed independently and added to the "normal" traffic. The consultants attempted to relate their traffic forecasts to the 1970 level of travel times and costs. Although 1971 and 1972 traffic counts indicate that the consultants' forecasts are on the low side, they are acceptable. The traffic data developed by VLD for the extension of the expressway into the suburban area of Kuala Lumpur are based on the traffic analysis of the Klang Valley Regional Study and a limited number of supplementary traffic counts. The Klang Valley Regional Study anticipated that the Government, as a result of the ongoing Transport Study for Metropolitan Kuala Lumpur, might adopt a policy of restraining the use of private automobiles in the city and improving public transport, and assessed the impact of such a policy on the road traffic volumes in the suburban area. It found that the most severe measures would reduce forecast traffic by only 3 to 6%. These figures seem low for roads in the immediate vicinity of the city and in order not to over-estimate the benefits of the extension, traffic there has been assumed to grow at the same rates as developed by VLD for the rural section of the expressway. These are about half the rates experienced presently on existing roads in the corridor and lower than those in the Klang Valley Regional Study. 5.06 VLD estimated costs of vehicle operation and passenger time in accordance with road standards and traffic density. Vehicle operating costs were established for nine vehicle types on the basis of estimates of major cost items under different conditions. Typical vehicle operating costs are given in Table 10. Time costs for passengers assessed for different vehicle types on the basis of occupancy rates found in the traffic survey and hourly earning rates of different road user groups are also shown in Table 10. These values were tested against the differences in fares of public transport which users are willing to pay for shorter travel times and increased convenience, and found to be conservative. Since the greater part of the time benefits (more than 70%) accrues to passengers either on business or home-to-work trips, they are acceptable. However, they are not critical for the justification of the road sections proposed. 5.07 Benefits of the proposed improvements were determined as the difference in road user and maintenance costs with and without the project, and are shown in detail in Table 11. Economic returns (ER) for the particular sections (Table 12), calculated over an assumed 20-year service life of the investments, range between 20% and 29%. The sensitivity of the ERa was tested by varying construction cost by t 15% and benefits by ± 25%. Under the pessimistic assumption of an increase in construction cost concurrent with a decrease in benefits, the ERs range between 14% and 22%. If time benefits are ignored, the ERs are between 10% and 19%. 5.08 Parallel to the appraisal of this project, the Bank carried out an experimental social cost-benefit analysis on the Ipoh road section (Section - 22 - III) which is not included in the project (para 4.02), using the Little-Mirrlees appraisal method. 1/ This study valued project inputs and outputs at border prices and arrived at shadow project capital costs 11% lower than developed on the basis of domestic prices, maintenance cost savings 8% lower and vehicle operating cost savings 14% lower. If shadow prices similar to those of the study were used in the evaluation of the road improvements proposed under the project, the ERs would not be significantly different from those given soove. 5.019 The evaluation of the project in terms of road user savings is conservative and does not fully reflect its development impact. The immediate beneficiaries will be the States of Selangor and Negri Sembilan. The Klang Valley Regional Study predicts that the total population of the Region will increase to 2.7 million in 1990. To accommodate this increase of 1.5 million in population, the Government and the consultants agreed on a settlement pattern for the area which emphasizes development south of Kuala Lumpur. Close to Kajang, an ongoing project for a new university is to be expanded to a major township, in which also light industry would be located, and which would have a total population of 180,000 in 1990. Although the town is planned to be self-contained with a minimum of inter-urban traffic demand, it can be expected to lead to traffic additional to that forecast in the feasibility study. The State of Negri Sembilan (500,000) presently is mostly agriculture- based and the possibilities for expansion of this sector are limited. Prospects for further econceic growth of the state mainly lie in further development of manufacturing and tourism, which could take advantage of a large pool of unemployed and underemployed labor. Industrial development which at present is concentrated on two industrial estates near Seremban, has been sluggish in the past but has accelerated recently and will be furthered by the improved connection to Kuala Lumpur to be provided under this project. 5.10 There is a danger that the development which will be induced by the proposed road improvements, particularly the expressway, will not take place in an orderly and properly organized fashion. To provide better coordination between the various Federal, state and local Government agencies involved in the regulation of land development, the Government followed a recommendation of the Klang Valley Regional Study and set up in the State Government of Selangor a State Planning and Coordination Unit. However, land use regulation is not yet strictly enforced and private developers generally get permission for changing designated land use and modifying building restrictions. During loan negotiations, an assurance was obtained from the Government that it will control land use along the project roads, particularly around intersections and interchanges, in order to promote planned urban development and avoid haphazard urban sprawl by private concerns. I/ "A Comparison of the IBRD and little-Mirrlees Appraisal of a iighway Project in Malaysia" by Sudhir Anand, Central Projects Staff. - 23 - VI. RECOMMENDATIONS 6.01 During loan negotiations agreement was reached on the following principal points: (a) the arrangements to continue the advisory services to the PRD and the HPU under bilateral financing (para 2.19); (b) the implementation of the Road Maintenance Study findings, in consultation and agreement with the Bank (para 3.27); and (c) the timing and procedures for selecting road sections for detailed engineering (para 4.08). 6.02 The Government gave assurances during loan negotiations that it will: (a) not impose tolls on the project road sections without prior consultation with the Bank (para 3.20); (b) provide additional road capacity from the end of the expressway into Kuala Lumpur (para 4.06); (c) whilst taking into account other demands on its resources, formulate, in agreement with the Bank, a schedule for the implementation of the findings of the Transport Study which relate to the expressway (para 4.06); and (d) control land-use along the project roads, particularly around intersections and interchanges, in order to promote planned urban development and avoid haphazard urban sprawl by private concerns (para 5.10). 6.03 In view of the agreements reached and assurances given, the project is suitable for a Bank loan of US$19.5 million to the Government of Malaysia for a 24-year term, including four years grace, reflecting the economic life of the construction element of the project. July 16, 1973  ANNEX A Page 1 MALAYSIA APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT Description of Project Roads A. Kuala Lumpur-Seremban (Section I) 1. This section of Route I is the main access from the southern part of West Malaysia to Kuala Lumpur (450,000) and the port of Klang. Regionally, it connects Kuala Lumpur with Seremban (80,000), capital of the state of Negri Sembilan, at the southern end of the section, and further with oil refineries and sea resorts near Port Dickson, west of Seremban. Between Kuala Lumpur and Seremban, there are several smaller towns and villages. The most important ones are Cheras (14,000), just outside Kuala Lumpur, and Kajang (23,000). Most of the land in the Kuala Lumpur-Seremban corridor is used for plantation agriculture (mostly rubber, but also palm oil and coconut). Service activities and normally small-scale industries form the economic basis of the urban centers. There are a number of state roads, particularly close to Kuala Lumpur and Seremban, but no throughgoing alternative route exists. 2. In 1970, traffic on the road ranged between 13,000 and 6,000 vpd, being highest close to Kuala Lumpur and Seremban and lowest in the sparsely populated center section. About 5,700 vpd travel the full length of the road. Over two-thirds of the traffic is passenger traffic, consisting mostly of business and home-to-work travel on weekdays and recreational trips to Port Dickson on weekends. Traffic growth during recent years averaged about 9% p.a., but was higher near Kuala Lumpur because of large housing develop- ments in Cheras and Kajang. The consultants forecast traffic to grow at rates of about 10% p.a. up to 1980 and some 5% thereafter. The Klang Valley Study consultants assessed the Impact of policies restraining the use of private motor vehicles in the city of Kuala 1 umpur and improving public transport on the road traffic volumes in the suburban area and found that the most severe measures would reduce the traffic by only 3% to 6%. 3. Due to its winding nature, with poor sight distances, varying widths and steep gradients, the existing road is inadequate to carry the forecast traffic and some sections are already at capacity. Three improvement options were investigated: (a) to upgrade the existing road over its whole length; (b) to upgrade the northern part of the existing road only, and build a new southern section on an alignment which avoids the mountainous terrain; and (c) to build a completely new road and carry out limited improvements to the existing road. ANNEX A Page 2 The last option, with a four-lane expressway on a new alignment as the initial investment, proved to have the lowest discounted overall cost of road use, maintenance and construction. Expressway 4. The new expressway will attract nearly all through traffic from the present Route I, as well as a considerable volume of suburban traffic from state roads. It will initially have four lanes and at-grade inter- sections, with the exception of its connection with the Port Dickson road west of Seremban and the junction with a major connecting road in Kuala Lumpur. The overpass of the expressway over the Port Dickson road is necessitated by a railroad branchline which parallels the rotd. The three- lane bridge for the connecting road is required for traffic capacity reasons. The rural parts of the expressways will provide good traffic flow conditions until about 1985, when further investments would probably be justified to prevent congestion. 5. The urban extension of the expressway is part of a major road system for the greater metropolitan area proposed by the Klang Valley Study. In line with the overall development concept for the region (para 5.09), the study assigned high priority to the road improvements in the access corridor of the expressway. The subsequent supplementary feasibility study by VLD identified the parts of the system which would be required to achieve a satisfactory dispersal of traffic from the expressway into the city. The feasibility study considered the possibility of upgrading an existing road (Sungai Besi Road) which, with four lanes in its northern part and two lanes in its southern part, carries at present between 34,000 vpd and 7,800 vpd (near Sungai Besi). The study found that because of very high land acquisi- tion cost, this alternative is inferior to building the expressway extension further west in mostly tin mining grounds. This extension, together with about 3.0 mi of connecting and access roads (the major one of which is a four-lane link to Route II, currently being improved under Loan 851-MA), will provide good traffic flow for at least five years after opening of the road, and longer, depending on the effectiveness of measures to curb local traffic, particularly by private motor cars, which the ongoing Transport Study for Metropolitan Kuala Lumpur will propose. The critical point in the present design is the tie-in of the expressway into Sungai Besi road by a traffic- signalled intersection. This intersection, and the integration of the expressway into the Metropolitan Kuala Lumpur Area, will be reviewed in the Transport Study for Metropolitan Kuala Lumpur. 6. At Seremban, the four-lane highway terminates at the interchange of the Port Dickson road; a two-lane bypass is carried beyond the town, linking with the existing Routz I and an existing industrial estate south of the town. Seremban is connected by a two-lane spur road. These connections are adequate for the forecast traffic. 7. The main benefits of the new four-lane highway are reductions in vehicle operating and time costs due to elimination of congestion, better road characteristics, and increased travel speeds. Traffic between Kuala ANNEX A Page 3 Lumpur and Seremban and beyond will also have distance savings of 3 to 6 mi. Thre average reduction in vehicle operating costs will be 17% in 1976, reduction in time costs will be about 45%. Over an assumed 20-year service life, the rates of return are 25% and 12% for the expressway and 26% and 12% respectively foz the expressway extension. Existing Road Improvements 8. The improvements of the existing road are justified by benefits to traffic which will not divert to the new road. The extension of the existing four-lane road from Mi 5.8 south of Kuala Lumpur to the town of Cheras, the construction of a two-lane bypass around the town, and the upgrading of the existing road further to Kajang to acceptable geometric standard width and pavement strength, will reduce vehicle operating costs by about 15% and travel time by about 25%. These savings and reductions in road maintenance cost will result in a rate of return of 29%; the rate of return would be 15% if time savings are not considered. The provision of a climbing lane, improved geometry and strengthening of the pavement in the steep grade section (7%) between Mi 21 and Mi 22 will result in time savings, vehicle operating savings (both 23%), and a reduction in maintenance cost. The investment will yield rates of return of 25%, or 19% if time benefits are ignored. The strengthening of the pavement, provision of standard road width with acceptable geometry and sight distances, climbing lanes, and of hard shoulders for non-motorized traffic in the hilly sections between Mi 34 and Mi 39.5 close to Seremban will result in vehicle operating costs and time savings (22% and 35% respectively) due to a smoother and faster flow of traffic, and reduced road maintenance cost. The rates of return on these improvements will be 20% and 15%, including and excluding time savings. B. Kuala Lumpur North to Mi 30 (Section II) 9. This section is the main access to Kuala Lumpur from the north. However, there is less urban development in this corridor than on the southern access to Kuala Lumpur. The major towns are Batu Caves (2,500), a suburb of Kuala Lumpur, and Rawang (7,000), 18 mi north of Kuala Lumpur. Land use along the road is primarily rubber planting and tin mining. Traffic is presently about 18,000 vpd close to Kuala Lumpur and tapering off to about 5,200 vpd at the northern end. The consultants predict traffic to continue to grow at rates of about 7% to 10% p.a. until 1975 and a slower growth of about 4% to 5% p.a. thereafter. 10. Although the riding surface of the existing two-lane road is generally good, its narrow carriageway, sharp curves and steep grades in many locations cause congestion and slowdowns. The first 1.8 mi from the end of a four-lane urban highway (Jalan Kuching) to the intersection with an access road to Route II in Batu Caves is heavily congested. The consultants compared the options of upgrading the existing road and building a new parallel road between Kuala Lumpur and Rawang and further to Tanjong Malim. The con- sultants did not come to a clear conclusion as to the best long-term improve- ment, partly because the feasibility of the new road depends on the con- struction of a major ring road in the north of Kuala Lumpur which, according to ANNEX A Page 4 the Klang Valley Regional Study, has low priority in the urban context. How- ever, limited improvements to the existing road would be the initial invest- ment requirement, regardless of which long-term alternative is chosen, and would be adequate for traffic needs up to 1985. 11. The widening to four lanes of 1.8 mi of existing road, with an intersection south of Batu Caves and a 1 mi relocation of the access road to Route II, and the realigning and upgrading of the existing two-lane road between Batu Caves and Rawang to uniform standards will result in a smoother traffic flow and increased travel speeds; vehicle operating costs will be reduced by about 20%; travel times by about 40%; in addition, maintenance cost savings will be achieved. Assuming constant benefits after 1985, the rates of return on this investment would be 28% with time savings, and 17% without. Similar upgrading between Rawang and Mi 30 will reduce vehicle operating costs by about 13% and travel times by about 25%. The rates of return will be 28% and 17%, including and excluding time savings. ANNEX B MALAYSIA APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT Description of Urban Studies Town Development Studies 1. Two studies are included: one will focus on the development of Kuantan, and the other on growth centers in North-East Negri Sembilan. Kuantan is one of the only two major port towns on the east coast and could be an urban growth center for industrial and tourism development, as well as providing a major market for its hinterland. There is currently considerable migration from North-East Negri Sembilan Region because of its economic backwardness. The Region, however, has several potential growth centers which could stimulate economic activities and improve the balance of national growth. The studies will: assess the development potential of each area and propose specific development measures; and identify high priority projects and undertake their feasibility studies for possible financing by the Bank or other international agencies. The precise locations, forms and sizes of the studies are to be further investigated and are subject to agreement between the Government and the Bank. Kuala Lumpur Urban Road Improvement Study 2. The study will be based on the findings of the Transport Study for Metropolitan Kuala Lumpur and will be designed to identify and undertake the feasibility study of measures to improve traffic circulation in the whole of Kuala Lumpur. It will specifically include suitable links from Route II (which is being improved under the Bank's Urban Transport Project, Loan 851-MA) to the Kuala Lumpur street system. The detailed engineering of high priority items will also be included. The projects prepared under the study are likely to be proposed by the Government for possible Bank financing as a part of a comprehensive approach to the solution of the city's transport problems.  TABLE 1 APPRAISAL OF A SECON4D HIGHWAY PROJECT MALAYSIA Federal Government Investments in Transport During the First and Second Five Year Plans (in M$ million) First Malaysia Plan Second Malaysia Plan 1966-1970 1971-1975 Mode West Malaysia East Mlaysia est Malaysia East Malaysia Roads 161.3 148.0 505.1 188.5 Railways 47.0 3.9 85.7 8.0 Ports and Shipping 82.9 10.1 122.9 106.9 Airports and Civil Aviation 40.3 20.8 49.8 59.0 PWD Plant and Equipment 24.4 6.2 31.0 31.5 Total 355.9 189.0 794.5 393.9 Transport as % of public development expenditures 10 30 14 28 Source: Prime Minister's Department, December 1972 7ABLE 2 APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT MALAYSIA Annual Change in Length of Road Network, by Pavement Type and Responsible Authority (mi) Pavement Type West Malaysia East Malaysia Total Year Paved Gravel Earth Total Paved Gravel Earth Total All Roads 1967 8,368 1,355 409 10,132 407 1,381 448 2,236 12,368 1968 8,755 1,356 401 10,512 429 1,652 415 2,496 13,008 1969 9,003 1,294 421 10,718 456 1,798 426 2,680 13,398 1970 9,192 1,237 413 10,842 499 1,913 406 2,818 13,660 1971 9,524 1,031 4Z7 10,982 553 2,007 409 2,969 13,951 Responsible Authority 1/ Total Year Federal State Local Total Federal State Local Total All Roads 1967 3,016 6,573 543 10,132 - 2,236 n.a. 2,236 12,368 1968 3,065 6,837 610 10,512 - 2,1496 n.a. 2,496 13,008 1969 3,086 7,010 622 10,718 - 2,680 n.a. 2,680 13,398 1970 3,105 7,104 633 10,842 - 2,818 n.a. 2,818 13,660 1971 3,141 7,189 652 10,982 - 2,969 n.a. 2,969 13,951 1/ Roads in Kuala Lumpur, Penang, Ipoh, and Malacca with Federal Government responsibility. n.a. = not applicable Source: Public Wbrks Department, January 1973 TABLE 2 APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT MALAYSIA 1/ Motor Vehicle Registration- West Malaysia Year Motorcycles Cars Taxis Buses Trucks Total 1960 49,100 92,200 4,300 2,700 28,900 177,200 1966 2114,700 169,000 5,400 4,000 44,M00 437,500 1967 251,500 182,400 5,600 4,200 66,500 490,200 1968 278,800 1914,700 5,700 4,600 48,300 532,100 1969 312,700 213,200 6,000 5,300 51,400 588,600 1970 350,000 231,500 6,700 5,900 55,800 649,900 1971 389,100 253,500 6,600 6,400 60,500 716,200 Average Annual Growth Rates (% p.a.) 1960-1966: 28 11 4 7 7 16 1966-1971: 12 8 4 10 6 10 East Malaysia Year Motorcycles Cars Taxis & Buses Trucks Total 1960 4,500 6,000 800 (900)1/ (12,200) 1966 114,500 17,900 1,100 4,900 38,400 1967 17,100 22,400 1,100 6,200 46,800 1968 18,600 26,800 1,100 6,800 53,300 1969 19,800 32,200 1,100 8,500 61,600 1970 21,600 36,800 1,100 9,900 69,400 1971 24,000 42,600 1,200 11,900 79,700 Average Annual Growth Rates (% p.a.) 1960-1966: 22 20 6 n.a. n.a. 1966-1971: 11 19 2 19 11 1/ Excludes Government vehicles. 2/ Sarawak only. Source: Public Works Departarnt, January 1973 TABLE 4 APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGWAY PROJECT MAIAYSIA Road Ependitures, 1967-71 (in M$ million) 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 West Malaysia Federal Roads Administration 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 Maintenance 11.5 12.4 18.1 18.4 17.3 Construction & Thprovements 12.8 13 14.9 28.5 321 Sub-total 25.0 26.5 33.7 47.7 50.6 State Roads Administration 6.0 6.4 6.3 6.7 10.1 Maintenance 22.6 25.6 25.8 22.9 21.6 Construction & Improvements 10.8 9.6 9.4 7.4 8.3 Sub-total 39.4 41.6 41.5 37.0 .0 Sub-total West Malaysia 64.4 68.1 75.2 84.7 0.6 East Malaysia Sabah Administration 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 Maintenance 6.4 6.9 7.0 6.9 8.4 Construction & Improvementa 9.1 24.0 24.8 21.4 21.5 Sub-total 16.5 31.9 32.8 29.4 31.2 Sarawak Administration 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 Maintenance 2.6 3.g 3.8 J.6 1,6 Construction & Improvezente 16.8 -5 .0 Sub-total 19.7 19.6 15.8 17.4 22.2 Sub-total East Malaysia 36.2 51.5 48.6 .8 53.4 100.6 Ba.n6 i e o b fr D e-r Source: Bank estimates on basis of data provided by FWD.. Dseeber 1972 TABLE 5 APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT MALAYSIA Revenues from Motor Vehicle Taxation (M$ million) W-est Malaysia at9 tvl Item 1967 196e 1969 1970 1971 -M I- u YbY -a - Purchase Tax 24.6 16.9 19.8 40.9 39.3-1 Annual Registration 102.0 111.7 119.7 137.8 147.2 Other Road Fees 11.1 11.9 13.4 21.8 22.9 Sub-total 137.7 140.5 152.9 200.5 209.4 k.6V 5.5/ 6.3 7.2r 85 Import Duty and Excise Tax on: Gasolia'- 99.9 109.4 312.0 119.3 134.0 9.6 10.4 9.6 10.9 12.8 Diesel fuel- 15.8 19.1 19.7 20.0 21.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 Motor vehicles & parts 3.6 11.8 2.4 37.7 49.3 8.3 8.9 12.1 14.1 17.0 Tires 1.3 3.2 2.8 4.0 3.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 Sub-total 120.6 143.5 136.9 181.0 208.6 19,6 20.9 23.7 27.2 32.3 Total 258.3 284.0 289.8 381.5 418.0 24o2 26.4 30.0 34.4 40.8 1/ Road consumption is estimated at 100% of total consumption for both West Malaysia and East Malaysia. 2/ Road consumption is estimated at 40% of total consumption for West Malaysia and 25% for East Malaysia. 3/ Treasury estimate. 4/ Bank estimate. Sources: Treasury; State Governments of Sabah and Sarawak; and Bank estimates, December 1972 APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT MALAYSIA Hiahway-Desisn Standards RURAL HIGHWAYS URBAN HIGHWAYS Two-lane Four-lane Divided Two-lane Four-lane Divided Terrain Terrain With Control Without Control With Control Without Control Unit Flat Rol ing Mountainous Flat Rolling Mountainous of Access of Access of Access of Access Design speed mph 60 50. 40 70 60 50 50 40 50 40 Surfaced width ft 24 24 24 Each carriageway 22 24 24 22 24 ( each carriageway ) 1/ Shoulder width ft 8 8 4 8 8 5 10 10 8 10 Central reservation ft - - - Minimum 10 - - Miniana 4 Maximum gradient % 3 5 8 3 4 7 Flat & rolling terrain 4 Flat & rolling terrain 4 Hilly terrain 6 Hilly terrain 6 Stopping sight distance ft 475 350 275 600 475 350 425 300 425 300 Passing sight distance ft 2,100 1,800 1,500 - - - 1,200 950 - Minimum curve radius ft 1,040 700 430 1,490 1,040 700 700 430 700 430 Structure Design: British "HA" Loading 1f Outside shoulder only for four-lane divided highway Source: Public Works Department, January and April ,1973 TABLE 7 APPRAISAL OF A 8S00WRD HIMMIA PMWWT ALAYSIA Detailed Project Cost Foreign 1$ (million) US$ (Million) Exchange Element ocal Foreign Total Local g Total CoMponent I. Construction and Improvement (a) Kuala Luipur-Seremban (Section I) (i) 32.4 mi of new 4-lane expressway, 2.9 mi of new 2-lane expressway, and 1.9 mi of access roads 13.7 16.8 30.5 5.9 7.2 13.1 55 (ii) 5 mi of 4-lane expressway extension, 2.8 mi of connecting roads (1.4 mi of 4-lane and 1.4 mi of 2-lane roads) and one interchange 4.6 5.6 10.2 2.0 2.4 4.4 55 (iii) 17 mi of Improvement to the existing road (2 lanes, except as noted below) - Mi 5.8 to Mi 15 (Mi 5.8 to Mi 8.4 to be widened to 4-lane divided) and new bridge at Mi 16 (with approaches) 1.4 1.7 3.1 0.6 0.7 1.3 55 - Mi 21 to Mi 22 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.04 0.05 0.1 55 - Mi 34 to Mi 39.5 0.9 1.2 2.1 o.4 0.5 0.9 55 (b) Kuala Lumpur North to Mi 30 (Section II) 25 mi of Improvement to the existing road (2 lanes, except as noted below) - Mi 5 to Mi 18 (Mi 5 to Mi 6.8 to be widened to h-lane divided) and 1 mi of connecting road 3.7 4.5 8.2 1.6 1.9 3.5 55 - Mi 18 to Mi 30 1.7 2.0 3.7 0.7 0.9 1.6 55 Sub-total I 26.1 31. 58.0 11.2 13.7 24.9 II. Supervision of I by Consultants 2.8 1.6 4.4 1.2 0.7 1.9 35 III. Feasibility study for expressway extension and detailed engineering of 22 mi of Route I and connecting roadel/ 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 30 IV. Detailed engineering of about 200 mi of road 2.5 2.5 5.0 1.1 1.1 2.2 50 V. Urban development studies 2.6 2.1 4.7 1.1 0.9 2.0 45 Sub-total II-V 8-4 6 14.8 3.6 2.8 6 VI. Contingencies: 2a/ Physical 3.4 3.8 7.2 1.5 1.6 3.1 Priice31 (i) Construction 2.4 2.9 5.3 1.1 1.2 2.3 (ii) Consulting Services4 00. 1.1 0.3 0.2 05 Sub-total VI 6.1 7.2 13.6 2.9 3 5.9 Total Project Cost 8 7.7 19.5 37.23 1/ To be financed retroactively. / 109 on all items. 7/ 7.5% (5% p.a.) on local and 10.5% (7A p.a.) on foreign coat. TV 7.5% (5% p.a.) on local and foreign cost. Source: Government and Consultants Estimates, June 1973 TABLE 8 APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT MALAYSIA Schedule of Fetimated Diabursementa Cumulative Disbursements Bank Fiscal Year at end of Quarter and Quarter (US$ '000) 1973/74 December 31, 1973 100 March 31, 1974 1,500 June 30, 1974 3,900 1974/75 September 30, 1974 6,400 December 31, 1974 8,700 March 31, 1975 10,600 June 30, 1975 12,200 1975/76 September 30, 1975 13,600 December 31, 1975 14,800 March 31, 1976 15,900 June 30, 1976 16,600 1976/77 September 30, 1976 17,200 December 31, 1976 18,000 March 31, 1977 18,500 June 30, 1977 19,000 1977/78 September 30, 1977 19,500 Source: Government/Bank Estimates, June 1973 TABLE 9 APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT MALAYSIA Average Daily Traffic Volumes on Project Roado I. Kuala Lumpur-Seremban Existing Road Mi 21.0 to 22.0 & Year Vehicle Type Mi .8 to 9.8 Mi 9.8 to 15.0 Mi 34.0 to 39.5 1970 12 480 10,9500 7,000 Motorcycles 1,0 1,120 710 Pass. cars, taxis, vans 8,220 6,580 4,170 Buses 380 320 210 Trucks 2,480 2,480 1,910 1975 10,620 5,660 3,480 1985 26,370 10,350 5,290 1995 49,240 19,040 7,850 Expressway Mi 0.0 to 5.Ol' Mi 5.0 to 1 Mi 11. o to 37.4 197 M 22,070 14650 10 0 Motorcycles 4490 00 63 Pass. cars, taxis, vans 11,470 7,550 6,440 Buses 670 450 210 Trucks 5,440 4,610 3,120 1985 37,700 25,164 18,710 1995 58,560 39,620 29,400 II. Kuala Lumpur-Tanjong Malim Year Vehicle Type Mi 5.0 to 6.8 mi 6.8 to 18.0 Mi 18.0 to 30.0 1970 167 ,300 6 000 Motorcycles 1,030 Pass. cars, taxis, vans 8,030 4,420 3,240 Buses 1,010 290 240 Trucks 2,010 1,560 1,740 1975 26,1oo 11,700 8,470 1985 43,070 19,280 13,740 1995 (68,910) (30,460) (20,470) 1/ Additional traffic will be generated by the proposed new town, Bandar Langat Source: Vallentine, Laurie & Davies, December 1972 and April 1973 TABIE 10 APPFAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT MALAYSIA Typical Vehicle Operating Costs (Excluding Taxes) (Mo per miY Small Large Motorcycle Car Taxi Truck Truck Bus Existing 2-lane highway Congested 3.6 10.7 16.5 26.6 39.3 29.9 Uncongested 3.4 9.9 13.8 21.7 35.3 25.4 New 2-lane highway 2.9 9.2 10.4 17.4 28.0 20.2 New h-lane highway 2.9 9.2 10.4 17.3 27.8 20.1 Travel Time Costs of Passengers (MS per veh-hour) Business Home-to-Work Social Trips- Trips Trips Motorcycle 0.651 0.6 Passenger car 5.503/ 1.90 1:3> Bus -------------- 2.30 ------------- 1/ One-third of earning rates of M$1.75 per hour of driver and M$0.60 per hour of 0.4 passenger. 2/ lAll earning rates of M$2.65 per hour of driver and M$2.35 per hour of 1.2 passengers. 3/ One-third of earning rates of M$2.65 per hour of driver and M$2.35 per hour of 1.3 passengers. 4/ One-third of earning rates of M$2.65 per hour of driver and M$0.60 per hour of 2.0 passengers. 5/ One-third of earning rate of M$0.25 per hour of 28 passengers; crew wages are included in vehicle operating costs. Source: Consultants estimates, December 1972 APPRAISAL OF A SECOND RIGHAY PROJECT MAL15ILA EtiLated Cost. ad BeneIlts (m$ 1000) Project Element 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1. "ala Lu-pur-Seremban (a) EprS==.y (11 MIl. 5.0 to 40.3 Benefits _ - - - 11052 11715 12418 13164 13822 14513 15239 16001 16801 17557 18347 19172 20035 21937 21879 2263 23891 24967 26090 27283 Vehicle oerating cist saving. 4796 5084 5389 5713 5998 6298 6613 6944 7291 7619 7962 8320 8695 9086 9495 9922 10368 10835 11322 11831 Time savin8. 6256 6631 7029 7451 7824 8215 8626 9057 9510 9938 10385 10852 11340 11851 12384 12941 13523 14132 14768 15432 Avoided highwy aintfemnce cost Costs 1269 7981 14446 11342 1620 j 3 54 366 37 6 3 393 401 1 429 4289 445 410 5489 501 14 27 8gineerL.g 1269 Right-of-~ay 1500 1484 Costruction 6040 12080 10570 1510 Supervision 441 882 772 110 at e34 345 356 366 376 383 593 401 409 421 429 4289 445 410 465 476 489 501 014 527 Net a-oofitt - 1269 .7981 -14446 -11342 10718 110 12082 12796 1~4 14130 1486 150 1692 17158 17918 1463 19-W0 20521 216414 22387 23402 24466 =51 26736 -etaBenefit- - 4 <1iN Mil.. 0.0 to 5.0 (.rban extensioni s~nefite - - - - 3002 3182 5373 3575 3754 3942 4159 4346 4563 4768 4983 5207 542 587 5945 6210 649 6781 7086 7405 V.hicle operating cost savings 1313 1392 1476 1564 1642 1725 1811 1901 1996 2086 2180 2278 2381 2488 2600 2717 2839 2967 3100 3240 Tt-e såvings 1689 1790 1897 2011 2112 2217 2328 2443 2567 2682 2803 29t9 3061 3199 3343 3493 3650 3814 3986 4165 Avoidad hihway -I t ce cost Co., 799 3138 5306 433 85 8 91 93 96 98 100 102 104 107 109 1094 113 116 119 121 125 128 131 134 &%£«.sri%ß 34 ~b f~y-".7 485 971 971 Co~ttuclion 2020 4040 4040 S~pervoi.s 147 295 295 i1iteae ,, 93 098 1 102 104 107 109 104 113 116 119 121 12J .28 _» 1. det fit - 3138 -53 4335 j f4 fl M 40 4439 ~6 4874 4113 2 3571 _%24 65 3 6955 71 APRISAL OF A SECOND HIG~WAY PROJEC MKLAYSIA Estimated Costa and Benefits P-jat El...t 1912 1973 1974 1915 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 I. Kula L.1ar-Serembat (cont'd.) (b) Iproveet af Eni.ting Road (i) iles 5.8 to 15.0 Benefit. _ - -1572269 43 2616 2934 3108 34 3673 4260 431 4623 4899 V-hicel operating cost saings 488 530 575 624 671 721 775 833 896 950 1007 1067 1131 1199 1271 1347 1428 1514 1605 1701 Tie svigs 869 943 1023 1110 1193 1283 1379 1482 1594 1690 1791 1898 2012 2133 2261 2397 2541 2693 2855 3026 Av-ided highay eintance cost 100 104 446 215 105 110 115 121 126 132 136 143 235 154 141 516 148 154 163 172 C-tes 151 184 1611 988 4L93 i9 60 6 4 66 89 76 14 409 A08 2 16 90 _93 94 97 99 02 106 109 11 2 Engi eing 151 Right-of-ay 290 293 Constructon 460 1228 921 460 Supervision 34 90 67 33 K.aiten 59 60 3 64 66 69 76 74 409 06 216 90 93 _94 - 99 12 209 Kat B...flt. -=LS I _?A4 1 398 1517 1981 1885 1903 2045 2197 2362 2287 2366 2718 318 385 3392 3576 416 415 4255 414 478 (ii) Kilen 21.0 t, 22.0 Sfitz- 132 72 76 80 83 87 9 94 q7 icO 105 109 74 115 121 125 130 135 141 145 V. el. Prt.ing . ost .svings 42 44 46 49 51 53 55 57 59 62 64 67 69 72 75 78 81 84 88 91 Tie highway 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 34 35 36 38 39 40 Avoided igahay mitaeeme eat 71 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 74 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 Co.t 7 - 57 149 63 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 Enginaaerig 7 - Right-f-.y 57 Co~strutiton 139 59 $.pers.i.on 10 4 Kai.tsna - - - 5 5 1 5 5 5 6 2 ~ 5 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 6 .6 Ikt1 B-.tit. 7 - -57 -149 -63 127 67 71 77 8å 2 85 89 91 W 0 184 169 110 116 120 130 133 139 (tii) Kiles 34.0 to 39.5 Benefit* - 609 70 729 756 7124 - -» 989 1027 1068 15 115 118 1245 1294 i*hk e up,rating cost savings 401 421 442 464 483 502 522 543 565 588 611 633 661 687 715 743 773 804 826 869 Tt-. -L«as. 182 191 200 210 219 227 237 246 256 266 277 288 299 311 324 537 350 364 379 395 Avolded hlghfiay Mintenae est 26 110 26 26 27 27 27 29 29 29 236 27 29 29 29 115 30 30 3 30 r-t-. 110 306 893 669 334 25 26 27 27 27 28 27 2 156 376 27 28 j9 _19 29 1 31 Right-of-way 171 Construction 312 832 624 311 S.pe1r1so 23 61 45 23 klte-- 25 7 7 27 28 27 9 56 376 27 28 29 29 9 30 31 1 31 31 M t Be is- ø 5 06 84 69f it 673 702 728 fi9 789 4 109 7 22 « 1 67 1214 1263 APPRAISAL OF Å SECOND RIGWlAY PROJECT N6LáYSIA E.timted Costa and Benefits (H1$ '000) Project Elment 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 199 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 II. Kela ~.pr North to Mi 30 (Iapro ent of REistiog bad) (i) MileS 5 to 18 Benefits - - - - - 3423 3327 35X7 3714 3881 4054 4235 4425 4780 4616 4616 4616 4616 4616 4616 4616 4616 4616 4616 4616 Veblcle operating cost »isesl 1595 1686 1782 1884 1969 2057 2150 2247 2348 2348 2348 2348 2348 2348 2348 2348 2348 2348 2348 2348 Tic vleieat 1454 1537 1625 1718 1795 1876 1960 2049 2141 2141 2141 2141 2141 2141 2141 2141 2141 2141 2141 2141 Tided b g y =it~me cost 374 104 110 112 117 121 125 129 291 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 cot 0 0212}3 115 115 11,5 115 _It5 11_ 115ll 1 CnIt, 525 3003 3920 2178 89 93 97 101 105 109 112 117 32 115 11 113 113 15 15 15 13 115 15 Engin.eerin 360 Rigbt-of-wy 165 390 Construction 2435 3653 2030 So..Iton 178 267 148 M.itenanoe 89 9 97 101 105 109 112 117 323 115 115 115 11 15 11515 115 115 115 113 et Benefits •5 -3 -31N_ - Z 3 3 2 345 4 8 7 1 01 4501 450 4 4 1 4501 A 4 4501 (i) Nils. 18 to 30 b~ sfits - 77 12 53 17 72 13 92 2016 2349 2395 2125 2125 2125 2123 2125 2125 2125 2123 2125 2125 1eeis- -_ • 78,7 1523 1593 1671 172 186 92 Tahiti ap-.ti.$ coat savings 745 781 819 860 902 946 992 1041 1092 1092 1892 1092 1092 1092 1092 1092 1092 1092 1092 1092 Time.. 1o. 613 643 674 707 742 778 816 856 898 898 898 898 898 898 898 898 898 898 898 898 A ided highway mintea * co t 429 99 100 104 108 112 114 119 339 405 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 cost 264 1361 1718 983 90 94 97 1 -00 06 114 113 129 129 129 12 129 129 å 129 29 129 129 Enginering 186 light-of-oay 78 182 Construction 1099 1648 916 SseoiSOU80 120 67 8.i.t*80 94 97 100 104 106 111 115 890 129 129 129 129 129 _.2. _lt _fl 129 29 l2 mot Bs~nfits -19 1496 1.7 90 196 1991 1996 19 Source: own~nt and osultants Døti~aes April and Juna 1973  TABLE 12 APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGfWAY PROJECT MALAYSIA Economic Returnsand Sensitivity Analysis Passenger Time Beat High/ Low./ Saving Excluded Estimate Estimate Estimate from Benefits I. Kuala Lumpur-Seremban (a) Expressway (i) Mi.0 to Mi 40.3 24 31 17 12 (ii) Mi 0.0 to Mi 5.0 (urban extension) 22 29 15 10 (b) Existing Road (i) mi 5.8 to mi 15.o 29 37 22 15 (ii) Mi 21.0 to Mi 22.0 25 35 16 19 (iii) Mi 34.0 to Hi 39.5 20 26 l4 15 II. Kuala Lumpur North to Mi 30 (i) Mi 5.0 to Mi 18.0 28 37 20 17 (ii) Mi 18.0 to Mi 30.0 28 37 19 17 1/ Assumes costs 15% lower and benefits 25% higher than in the best estimate. 2/ Assumes costs 15% higher and benefits 25% lower than in the best estimate.  APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT MALAYSIA PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT DIRECTOR GENERAL DEPUTY DIRECTOR DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL GENERAL (ENGINEERINGSERVICES) (DEVELOPMENT) ROADS BUILD ING SPLE FOREDDSBULIG SWPLERS WORKASO MECHANICAL ELECTRICAL WORKS DIVISION OlVISION DIVISION DIVISION DIVISION DIVISION DIVISION PROJECT QUANTITY COORDINNTION DEELOPMENT DESIGN SECTION IMPLEMENTATION PROJECT STORES ACCOUNTING SURVSYNG MANAGERTIO DIVISIONDSGNSCTONSCTO DIVISION SUVYN SECTION FEDERAL LAND MAAE IIINDIVISION DESIGN AND MAIN CIVIL WORKS UNIT RESEARCH DIV ISION LAND ACQUISITION UNIT SERVICE RELOCATION UNIT AUDIT AND ACCOUNTING UNIT DESIGN SOIL RE- SEARCH World Bank-7597 (R)  IBRD -10050R MAY 1973 MALAYSIA APPRAISAL OF P~ H AA SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT ST H A l L A N D --9ECERA4kL V -i ANirD PIVTErI6MER 3 1En -FutcF'N L R[Ei --- - CI,AL eADA LIPJDEA -,rZ-PJE Al .- 'reL- El Er E'NC.'NEEANC .- _f.r- G 5Tr12T ór a LD' .E T3fw.r'4. y.4.f,4 - -J, FE j- P - L - --rl I-P av , - L4NC å4LLLF RE-31C --- -.- STATE BOUN0ARiES -L r.a fl' - INTFPTEANAT,ONAL 60 JNi' R tt r 0 1 .lrfS FJ-.... - 1 -- -- -f ..« .M ' P .4'E -c no r.. -rf 7 S r '5N' 1- 1" - II. I p - I v , TT rr jrr ni. L2 IC:CNE10.T1. h luCflaJl.co REPUBLI u - - - - N~ ~ ~ ., r 57 ir- .  To Port Klang, Shah Alam & Airport To Kuolo Selongor - 1:'2 7-- à c - -0n ,,e-' ' - -, e ..-...-- . - a- o 3 - C0 --- 0 oI - - -.- 00 ~-o -o0C 0 z I- - -I-n Ç - - i 00z