44945 Paper number 115 E N V I R O N M E N T D E P A R T M E N T P A P E R S Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development Perspectives from Communities in Peru Frank Sperling, with Corinne Validivia, Roberto Quiroz, Roberto Valdivia, Lenkiza Angulo, Anton Seimon, and Ian Noble May 2008 Sustainable Development Vice Presidency The World Bank environmenT deparTmenT Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development Perspectives from Communities in Peru Frank Sperling with Corinne Validivia Roberto Quiroz Roberto Valdivia Lenkiza Angulo Anton Seimon Ian Noble May 2008 Papers in this series are not formal publications of the World Bank. They are circulated to encourage thought and discussion. The use and citation of this paper should take this into account. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank. Copies are available from the Environment Department of the World Bank by calling 202-473-3641. © The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. Manufactured in the United States of America First printing May 2008 The findings, interpretation, and conclusions presented in this report are those of the author and should not be attributed to the World Bank, its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The presentation of material in this document and the geographical designations employed do not imply expression of any opinion on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of a country, territory or area, or concerning the delimitation of its boundaries. Design: Jim Cantrell Cover photos: Frank Sperling Contents Acknowledgments vii executivesummAry 1 introduction--climAteresilientdevelopment 5 Chapter 1: Climate Resilient Development -- A Country Perspective 9 Disaster Risk -- An Overview 11 El Niño's Influence on Peru's Climate 11 Forecasting El Niño 14 Institutional Structures for Disaster and Climate Risk Management 16 Climate Change -- Challenge and Institutional Response 18 Climate Change and El Niño 19 Chapter 2: Climate Resilient Development--CommunityPerspectives 21 Approach 21 Perspectives from Communities in Piura and Puno 25 Disaster Risks and Impacts 25 Piura 25 Puno 29 Spatial Disaster Risk 31 Temporal Exposure to Climatic Risks 32 Impacts 34 Comparison of Risk Exposure of Communities in Piura and Puno 36 Vulnerability 36 Socioeconomic Vulnerability 37 Environmental Vulnerability 38 Long-term Consequences of Vulnerability 38 Key Aspects of Vulnerability 38 Coping and Adaptation Strategies 39 Coping Strategies 40 Adaptation Practices 41 External Assistance and Barriers 43 External Information--Weather Forecasts, Early Warning, and Seasonal Climate Outlooks 44 Access to and Use of Information in Piura 45 Weather and Climate Information in Puno 47 Reflections on Community Responses 48 Use of Local Knowledge in the Prediction of Climatic and Environmental Changes 50 Climate Change Series iii Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru Piura 50 Puno 50 Gauging the Role and Validity of Indicators 56 Perceptions of Changing Climate Conditions 57 Piura: Perceived Climatic Changes in Northwestern Peru 57 Puno: Perceived Climatic Changes in the Peruvian Altiplano 57 Are These Perceptions True? 58 Piura 58 Puno 60 Chapter 3: ConclusionsandRecommendations 65 Use of Climate Information 66 Research 66 Environmental Risks and Change 67 Climate Forecasts and Local Indicators 67 Agriculture and Livestock Management and Market Research 67 Incentive Systems 67 Tracking Progress 68 Community Action on Climate Risk Management 68 Awareness Building 68 Community-Level Investments 69 Enabling Frameworks: Institutional Coordination and Support 70 references 73 Appendixes Appendix A: SpatialHazardMapsofPunoCommunities 77 Appendix B: Warm(ElNiño)andCold(LaNiña)PhasesofENSO 83 Appendix C: PrecipitationTotalsinRelationtoSeasonalSSTAnomaliesinEsperanza 85 Appendix D: Community-SpecificRecommendations 89 Parachique 89 Measures that Do Not Require Outside Assistance 89 Measures that Require Outside Assistance 89 Chato Grande 90 Measures the Community Could Take without Outside Assistance 90 Measures that Require Outside Assistance 90 Locuto 91 Measures the Community Could Take without External Assistance (according to July 13 workshop) 91 Measures that Require Outside Assistance (according to July 13 workshop) 92 Measures that Could Be Implemented by the Community without External Assistance (part of the development plan for the left bank of the Piura River, in Tambogrande) 92 Measures that Require External Assistance (part of the development plan for the left bank of the Piura River, in Tambogrande) 93 Cabuyal 94 Measures the Community Could Take without Outside Assistance 94 Measures that Require Outside Assistance 94 iv Environment Department Papers Contents Appendix E: ProjectProposalforFollow-UpActivitiesintheAltiplano 97 Background 97 Development Objective 97 Expected Contribution to Development Outcomes/Results 98 Expected Outputs and Results 98 Key Performance Indicators 98 Appendix F: ManagingClimateRisksinCoastalEcuador--ABriefComparisonof CommunityPerspectives101 figures 1. Monthly Precipitation for (A) La Esperanza, and (B) Huancabamba 12 2. Piura, Northern Peru 13 3. Monthly Precipitation Averages for Puno from 1931­73 14 4. The NINO Regions 14 5. NINO 3.4 Forecasts: Lead Time by Month and Predictive Skill 15 6. Diagram of Information Flow through ERFEN Network in Peru 17 7. NINO 3 Region Climate Trends 20 8. Spatial Exposure to Hydrometeorological Hazards of the Community of Santa Maria 31 9. Time Line of Major Natural Hazard Events Recalled by the Communities 32 10. A Comparison of the Seasonal Precipitation Total from January to March (JFM) for La Esparanza with JFM SST Anomalies in the NINO 3.4 Region 48 11. Comparison between January Precipitation in La Esperanza and SST Values of the NINO 1.2 Region 49 12. Average (A) Annual, (B) Monthly Maximum, and (C) Monthly Minimum Temperatures for Esperanza, Northwestern Coastal Peru 59 13. Average Monthly (A) Maximum and (B) Minimum Temperatures for Huancabamba, Sierras, Upper Piura Watershed 61 14. Long-term Temperature Record for (A) Minimum, (B) Maximum, and (C) Average Temperature in Cusco, Peru 62 15. Precipitation Averaged over 30-year Periods for January to April for the Peruvian Altiplano Region 63 mAps 1. The Country of Peru 10 2. Location of Communities Assessed in Piura 22 3. Location of Communities in Puno 23 tAbles 1. Annual GDP Growth Rates in Percent by Year, Peru 10 Climate Change Series v Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru 2. Disasters in Peru (Recorded by District from 2000­04) 11 3. Three-Month Temperature Anomalies for Classification of El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) Conditions, in Degrees Celsius 15 4. Members of ENFEN­Peru 17 5. Community Characteristics, Piura 22 6. Community Characteristics, Puno 24 7. Disaster Events, as Recalled and Ranked by Communities in Piura, Peru 26 8. Impacts of Climate Hazards Identified in the Community Assessments in Piura 27 9. Qualitative Ranking of Natural Hazards by Communities in Puno 30 10. Livelihood Impacts of Drought and Floods, Communities of Puno 35 11. Livelihood Impacts of Hail and Frost, Communities of Puno 36 12. Conditions of Vulnerability Highlighted by Communities 39 13. Destinations of Push Migration, Piura Communties 41 14. Access to Weather and Climate Information 46 15. Awareness, Use, and Trust of El Niño Information in Six Puno Communities, 2005 Workshop 47 16. Indicators Used by Communities to Predict Weather Extremes and Climatic Conditions 51 vi Environment Department Papers Acknowledgments T his report is an output of the project The report would not have been possible without the Adaptation Strategies to the Environmental participation of the communities of Parachique, Chato and Socioeconomic Impacts of El Niño for Grande, Locuto, and Cabuyal in the Department of Rural Communities in Ecuador and Peru Piura and the communities of Santa Maria, Ancacca, supported by the Trust Fund for Environmental and Yanamocco, Candile, Accopata, and Alto Achuyo Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD) and led in the Department of Puno. Their willingness and by the Climate Change Team of the World Bank's openness for sharing their perspectives on vulnerability Environment Department. to climate risk, coping and adaptive capacities, institutional support, and existing barriers are gratefully This report has been authored by Frank Sperling. acknowledged. It draws upon two major consultancy studies in Piura, northwestern Peru and in Puno, the region Furthermore, our gratitude is extended to the of the Peruvian altiplano, which were carried out by institutions working on climate and disaster risk the Intermediate Technology Development Group management issues in Peru, who shared information (ITDG) and Centro de Investigacion de Recursos and provide insights about the challenges Peru is facing Naturales y Medio Ambiente (Research Center for through the climatic changes associated with El Niño Natural Resources and Environment; CIRNMA) Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global warming. under the supervision and guidance of the Centro Thanks are particularly due to Julio Garcia and staff at International de la Papa (International Potato Center; Consejo Nacional del Ambiente (National Council for CIP) in collaboration with the University of Missouri. the Environment; CONAM) for sharing data for this The author would especially like to acknowledge the report. Also staff at Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia contributions provided by Roberto Quiroz (CIP), e Hidrologia (National Meteorology and Hydrology Corinne Valdivia (University of Missouri), Roberto Service; SENAMHI), Instituto Nacional de Defensa Valdivia (CIRNMA), and Lenkiza Angulo (ITDG). Civil (National Institute of Civil Defense; INDECI), Their knowledge and insights were of great importance Instituto del Mar del Peru (Peruvian Marine Research in describing the situation of the communities in Institute; IMARPE), and Ministerio de Agricultura coping and adapting to climatic risks. In addition, (Ministry of Agriculture; MINAG) provided the team Anton Seimon of Columbia University provided advice with helpful background information. Tony Barnston and shared valuable information, which is gratefully and colleagues at the International Research Institute of recognized. The author would also like to thank Ian Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia kindly shared Noble, the Task Team Leader of the Project, for this information about their research. support and ideas. Climate Change Series vii Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru The project team would also like to express its gratitude and Environmental Research (CICERO), and Norway, to Liliana Sánchez (Universidad Nacional Agraria la which led to the report Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Molina) for organizing the workshops in Puno and Community Responses: Summary of Experiences in Peru assisting in the coordination of the assessments. Hugo and Ecuador by Jemima García-Godos, Desmond Li Pun, Victor Mares, Oscar Hildago, Pili Byrne, and McNeill, Karen O'Brien, and Lars Otto Næss. The Martha Huanes (all CIP) organized and facilitated the report is available upon request. Finally, Ajay Mathur, workshops in Piura and Lima. We are most grateful Walter Vergara, Laura Tlaiye and Renan Poveda are for their help and time. We also like to thank Jorge gratefully recognized as current (or former) World Bank de la Cruz for preparing the maps of the study region staff who provided helpful general support and insights included in this report. Finally, Frank Sperling would throughout different stages of this project initiative. like to thank Graciete Moura for her support. Further inquiries about this report or the project should This report is accompanied by a consultancy be directed to the Climate Change Team (Environment commissioned on early warning systems and Department, ENV) of the World Bank or directly to institutional disaster prevention structures in Peru and Ian Noble, inoble@worldbank.org or Frank Sperling, Ecuador, which was jointly carried out by Senter for fsperling@worldbank.org. utvikling og miljø (Center for Development and the Environment, SUM), Center for International Climate viii Environment Department Papers Executive Summary I n the face of global environmental change, climate Peru. Given high levels of rural poverty, many impacts, risk management is increasingly recognized for however, reside outside mainstream economy affecting its essential role of ensuring the sustainability nonmonetary assets of rural people. of development processes. Climate change is altering the exposure of developing countries to Understanding how to address the semiperiodic weather-related hazards, often exacerbating already occurrence of climatic patterns associated with ENSO, existing vulnerabilities. Over recent decades, the as well as the multi-hazard environment of Peru, worldwide occurrence of weather-related disasters and provide important insights into capacity-building socioeconomic impacts have increased. This is linked to needs to prepare for long-term climate change, while a variety of factors, including demographic, economic, also being of immediate benefit. Within this context, and environmental trends. High economic losses the community assessments of this study compare associated with disasters and the importance of climate- information and capacity-building needs in Northern sensitive sectors for the economic progress of many Peru, where El Niño exerts a dominating influence on developing countries have strengthened the call for climatic conditions, with the situation of communities climate-proofing development processes by proactively in the Peruvian altiplano, where the effects of El Niño managing current and future climate risks. are superimposed on a generally high degree of climate variability. Peru is among the countries highly vulnerable to climatic variability and extremes. The Andean The major challenge for communities in Northern mountain range acts as formidable barrier to air Peru is to forge livelihoods out of a semiarid masses and helped shape contrasting climatic zones. In environment. El Niño events represent both a challenge addition, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and an opportunity when the additional rainfall exerts a strong influence on the climatic variability. amount turns from a relief to destruction in the short The warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases of term, but to green forests in the medium term. Climate ENSO have been linked to the occurrence of climatic risk management in this region means adapting to and extremes in coastal Northwestern Peru and high plateau coping with either too much or too little water, but (altiplano) extending southward from Peru. also taking advantage of the positive effects of climate variability. Climatic changes triggered by El Niño events have caused substantial economic losses. El Niño has been The challenge for communities in the altiplano of associated with above normal rainfall conditions and Peru is to cope with a highly variable climate on an floods in the northwestern Peru and more frequent annual and interannual basis. While El Niño is often drought conditions in the altiplano. The strong 1997­ associated with drought conditions in the altiplano, 98 El Niño event caused losses of 3.6 billion USD in the communities may be exposed to a range of climatic Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru extremes in any year. During the planting season, predominantly placed on the major events. This needs droughts, floods, hail, cold spells, and snow may impact to be taken into account when issuing El Niño forecasts livelihoods. This situation has made it very difficult for to communities. households to accumulate and sustain assets, reinforcing high levels of poverty. El Niño events do not represent a core concern to communities in Southern Peru, as their effect While climate forecasts have the potential to support is masked by the multi-hazard environment. communities in improving their agricultural outputs, Communities relate El Niño events largely to impacts current communication formats are limited in in Northern Peru and the coast and not to their own their value, as they are not well integrated into the situation. While El Niño events have been shown to general knowledge networks and decision-making suppress moisture transport to the altiplano, and hence processes of the communities. Climate forecasts are associated with drought conditions, the continuous tend to be compared with biological and physical exposure to climatic extremes makes it difficult to indicators of local environmental conditions. Forecasts recognize the specific impact of El Niño. It is therefore are disseminated predominantly through the radio. questionable whether an emphasis on strengthening Disagreement between the communities' interpretation awareness about El Niño would be useful; rather, of traditional indicators and the message of the climate information should reflect the interest of the forecast creates confusion, given that the one-way communities in learning more about their disaster communication process of scientific forecasts does risks and the general strengthening of early-warning not provide opportunity for consultation or feedback. capabilities for floods and droughts as well as other While forecasts are probabilistic, if this information is hazards, and association with sea surface temperature falsely interpreted it generates a general distrust toward (SST) forecasts in the Pacific. using external information. The acceptance of seasonal climate forecasts and early warnings is furthermore Specific measures aimed at explaining, forecasting, and dependent on who communicates the information, as responding to climatic risk can further reduce climate- government institutions are often not trusted, while related development processes. A better understanding radio is a trusted source. of spatial vulnerabilities to specific climatic hazards is needed. Climate forecasts and early-warning systems Communities tend to recall El Niño events according need to be linked to traditional knowledge systems and to the magnitude of negative impacts they have decision-making bodies. caused. In coastal Ecuador and Northern Peru, the floods associated with strong 1982­83 and 1997­98 The ability to cope with climatic hazards is dependent El Niño events are remembered. Weaker events are on assets and the ability to diversify income sources. generally not linked by communities to disasters. This Particularly in the altiplano, the possession of may in part be explained by the fact that additional livestock mitigates the impact of disasters. As access moisture supplied during El Niño years to the semiarid to credit is generally lacking and monetary assets are environment is, with the exception of the flooding limited, the sale of livestock often provides the only events, largely beneficial for the communities, as it opportunity to acquire medicines, seeds, and building recharges aquifers and allows for the expansion of materials after a disaster. Households that can resort rain-fed agriculture and livestock. Therefore, in the to alternative sources of income, such as off-farm perception of the communities of coastal Ecuador employment, are able to store forage for and protect and Northern Peru, the return period of El Niño their livestock, and can plant different crop varieties events differs from the scientific definition, as focus is and adjust other agricultural practices to better cope Environment Department Papers Executive Summary with climate extremes. Communal support systems as well as dry and wet, conditions. In Northern Peru, and sharecropping can also play an important role this means considering the effect of sporadically in reducing the impact of climate-related hazards. In extremely wet conditions on infrastructure, human poorer households, where land quality is low and access health, and agriculture during El Niño years, while to resources or communal support is limited, family strengthening the capacity of communities to maintain members may be forced to migrate to urban areas or assets during the otherwise prevalent dry conditions. other regions in search for alternative income sources. Training in crop and pest management for specific Linkages built outside the community are essential climatic conditions, strengthening access to credit for because hazards are shared by a high proportion of households or communities, and improving awareness families. about institutional support systems for emergency relief are also likely to significantly reduce climate- Development can improve the general resilience to related vulnerabilities of community-level development climatic shocks, if the hazard risks are appropriately processes. considered when addressing basic development needs. While communities are exposed to a range Research activities need to be strengthened to of climate-related hazards, vulnerabilities are often support the design of climate-resilient development directly linked to basic development issues, such as the processes by responding to community-level training absence of health care facilities, inappropriate housing and capacity-building needs. Priority concerns are and infrastructure, limited access to markets, lack the validation of biological and physical indicators, of educational and technical training opportunities, evaluating the impact of environmental change, and weak institutional support. In this context, it is identifying effective entry points for scientific climate crucial that development activities, such as improving forecasts, evaluation of crop and livestock management infrastructure, consider the local climatic conditions. options, exploring viable credit and insurance schemes, In the altiplano, this means recognizing the exposure and the role of markets in fostering climate-resilient of development activities to extremely cold and hot, production and natural resources management. Climate Change Series Introduction -- Climate Resilient Development T he international quest for eradicating poverty and in the World Bank's Investment Framework for sustainable development not only has to address Clean Energy and Development (World Bank 2006), tremendous demographic and socioeconomic which also addresses adaptation to climate change. A challenges, but also needs to adapt to a changing first estimate suggests that around 40 percent of the global environment. Global warming will alter average development project portfolio is at significant risk due climatic conditions in which development processes to climate change. As the fingerprints of climate change take place and affect the exposure to extreme events. are increasingly becoming visible, there is clearly the The changes to the climate system are increasingly need to understand what practical measures can be visible through their impacts on physical and biological undertaken to improve the resilience to current and systems around the globe (e.g. IPCC 2001a, b, IPCC future climate risks. 2007 a,b; Parmesan 2003, Stott et al. 2004, Emanuel 2005, and others). These changes occur against a The challenge lies in addressing the pressing backdrop of already existing vulnerabilities to natural development needs of today, without locking into disasters, which are particularly high in terms of loss rigid development paths that only promise short-term of life and relative economic damages in developing relief and not a sustainable solution to these problems, countries (World Bank 2005). Climate change also because of their inability to adapt to a dynamic interacts with other environmental changes, such as environment. land degradation, habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss, and air pollution (e.g., IPCC 2001, 2007). It is The aim of adaptation to climate change is to reduce particularly the poor countries, where the livelihoods the exposure to climate hazards and/or the underlying and economic growth depend on climate-sensitive vulnerabilities to climatic changes. In contrast to the sectors and adaptive capacity is low in terms of necessary complementary efforts to mitigate the rate institutional and socioeconomic capital, that are at the and magnitude of climate change through the reduction receiving end of these changes. and sequestration of greenhouse gases, adaptation is less tangible. It requires different measures that depend In recognition of these problems, 10 bi- and on the scale, geography, and time horizon of the multilateral agencies came together to jointly author the development sector targeted. Human health, agriculture report Poverty and Climate Change, which emphasized and fisheries, forestry, and infrastructure are among the the importance of integrating climate risk management development sectors most vulnerable to climate change into the development processes if sustainable progress and associated impacts (IPCC 2007b), illustrating that toward and especially beyond the Millennium practical efforts to adapt to climate change will need Development Goals (MDGs) is to be made (AfDB et to cover a broad array of professional disciplines and al. 2003). The importance of an integrative approach cultures. This is further complicated by the variety of of addressing climate change was recently reiterated physical changes in the environment that are triggered Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru by climate change, including sea level rise, climatic important lessons for preparing for the challenges of extremes, changes in temperature, precipitation, climate change. and other effects. These changes are not uniformly distributed across the globe, but are associated with The northwestern coastal areas of Peru, as well as the impacts that play out over different temporal and altiplano in the South, are under the influence of spatial scales. the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO represents a natural ocean atmosphere phenomenon, The term climate-resilient development implies that which is associated with changes in SST along the adaptation to climate change should not be seen as a equatorial Pacific and off the coast of Ecuador and Peru separate process, but a continuous and integrated one and fluctuations in the intertropical surface pressure that addresses present and future climate risks. The pattern in the Pacific (and Indian) Ocean. The two starting point in this process is to identify and address extreme phases of ENSO, El Niño and La Niña, affect existing vulnerabilities to current climate variability the climate of the tropical Pacific and beyond. Besides and change. Addressing existing adaptation "deficits" influencing average climatic conditions and climate can provide important learning lessons for tackling variability, they have also been associated with the climate change (Burton and van Aalst 2004), while also occurrence of extreme events, which have triggered providing immediate benefits. disasters with macroeconomic impacts in Peru and elsewhere. Some caveats apply. When addressing vulnerabilities to current climatic conditions, adaptation measures which In recent years, the scientific capacity to forecast ENSO are part of longer-term processes should be flexible so extremes and warn of impeding El Niño events has they are capable of being adjusted to further change. increased considerably. This is complemented by a The knowledge of change already has implications as it growing institutional emphasis on proactive disaster means that our experiences may only be of limited use risk management, which aims to not only respond to in addressing future climatic conditions (Sperling and but also prevent the occurrence of disasters through Szekely 2005). Hence, addressing current vulnerabilities reduction of underlying vulnerability factors. is the first step; only the beginning of a process that needs to be adjusted and reevaluated over time. But The semiperiodic occurrence of El Niño and La Niña making this first step is crucial as it reflects a change in events represents the opportunity to explore how these attitudes; a shift from coping (ex post) to prevention scientific and institutional advances have benefited and vulnerability reduction (ex ante). vulnerable communities, such as the ones in Peru, in increasing their resilience to associated climatic extremes. Scope and Rationale of Study The paper focuses on the abilities of communities Specifically, the TFESSD study set out to capture the in Peru to cope with climate variability, drawing on perspectives and opinions of communities concerning the results of project financed by the Trust Fund for their vulnerability to climatic hazards, and the role Environmental and Socially Sustainable Development of weather and climate information in relation to (TFESSD). The climatic changes induced by the other nonformal information sources for anticipating semiperiodic occurrence of El Niño and La Niña and adapting to climatic extremes. The communities represent a learning opportunity of processes that were also asked about perceived changes in their influence adaptive capacities and could hence provide environment. Building on these discussions the communities then identified, first individually and then Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- A Country Perspective jointly with institutional representatives, measures that weather and climatic conditions and recommendations need to be taken to strengthen their adaptive capacity for capacity-building needs, it is hoped that the report to ENSO events and general climate variability. will provide valuable, initial guidance on which elements play an important role in strengthening the This study uses a bottom-up approach. The adaptive capacity of communities to climate variability livelihoods of communities in rural areas of Peru are and change. predominantly dependent on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture. Given their close connection with The objective of Part I is to place climate variability the environment, the understanding of how these and change into the broader development of Peru and communities perceive risks and how they adapt to and outline risk management structures. This overview will cope with climate hazards is important for identifying then be contrasted with the perceptions of risks and entry points for efforts aimed at building resilience. vulnerabilities and coping and adaptation strategies In this context, it is assumed that the successful use at the community level described in Part II for of climate information will depend on appropriate Northwestern Peru and the altiplano, which are regions information formats that fit the decision-making considered highly vulnerable to climate-related hazards. structure of communities as stakeholders and also have The report concludes by developing a set of overarching their trust. In connection with collecting information of and locale-specific recommendations. community knowledge on environmental predictors of Climate Change Series 1 Climate Resilient Development-- A Country Perspective P eru is a country characterized by a diverse are the most vulnerable with the least economic means. range of climates and an abundance of natural On the national level, 64 percent of indigenous people resources and environments. The Andes divide live below the poverty line, and almost 80 percent of the country into three regions. the rural indigenous population is poor (World Bank 2006; see also Hall and Patrinos 2005). In contrast, 40 The semiarid to arid coastal area includes the and 66 percent of the nonindigenous are poor at the capital of Lima and represents the region with the national level and in rural areas, respectively. most industrialized and westernized urban centers. Agricultural activities are either under large-scale While economic shocks more greatly affect the urban irrigation or, as is often the case of the more poor and population, it is particularly the rural population vulnerable communities, dependent on seasonal river that is most affected by natural disasters (World flows and highly variable rainfall. Bank 2006). A recent analysis of the world's disaster hotspots conducted by the World Bank and Columbia About 50 percent of Peru's population of roughly 28 University ranked Peru among the 50 countries most million lives in sierra, the highland plateau between vulnerable to natural disasters (World Bank 2005). the two ranges of the Andean mountains. Most Peruvians of indigenous origin live in the Sierras. Rural As will be discussed in the subsequent sections, climate- livelihoods still rely heavily on subsistence farming and related hazards feature prominently in Peru's disaster traditional livestock rearing, such as llama and alpaca. risk profile, especially climatic extremes associated with the semiperiodic occurrence of El Niño events. The eastern region of Peru is comprised of the The economic and structural losses associated with the Amazon lowlands, characterized by a tropical climate 1982­83 El Niño were estimated to be 3.38 billion and rainforests. It is the region that is most sparsely USD (6.2 percent of 1983 gross domestic product populated. [GDP]), while the estimated loss of the 1997­98 El Over the recent years, Peru has experienced a stable Niño amounted to approximately 3.5 billion USD, macroeconomic situation, which has been attributed which represents about 3 percent of the 1998 GDP. to sound economic policies and a favorable external 1998 represents a year characterized by a decline in environment (World Bank 2006). Since 2002, GDP GDP (Table 1). Given the existing vulnerability to growth rates have been around 4 percent and higher. interannual climate variability and the high dependency High levels of poverty still persist, however. of livelihoods and economic activities on natural resources, the implications of climate change for One in two Peruvians is poor (World Bank 2006). The the exposure to extreme events and the provision of rural populations and especially the indigenous people Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru natural ecosystem services are becoming a growing the Country Assistance Strategy of climate change as a concern. This is reflected by the recent recognition in threat to development processes. Table 1. Annual GDP Growth Rates in Percent by Year, Peru Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 GDP growth -0.7 0.9 3.0 0.2 5.2 3.9 5.2 6.4 (%) Source: World Bank 2006. Map 1. The Country of Peru 0 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- A Country Perspective Disaster Risk -- An Table 2. Disasters in Peru (Recorded by District from 000­04) Overview Type of Natural Disaster Total Piura Puno Max Average Volcanic Activity 1 1 1.0 Peru is exposed to a broad range of Aluvium 11 3 1.8 natural hazards. While emphasis Avalanches 6 2 1.5 Landslides 496 17 20 69 19.8 is placed here on climate risks, it Hail 120 0 39 39 4.8 is important to recognize that the Frost 556 9 124 124 22.2 country is located in a tectonically Huaycos 244 2 1 29 9.8 Floods 1328 30 185 185 53.1 active zone and hence large areas Heavy rains 1241 4 147 147 49.6 are also prone to geological hazards. Ocean swells 14 0 0 4 0.6 Peru ranks highest among Latin Snow 367 0 72 72 14.7 Drought 221 21 0 91 8.8 American countries in numbers of Earthquake 229 0 5 118 9.2 lives lost and affected by natural Thunderstorms 45 1 6 13 1.8 Strong winds 1806 125 108 386 72.2 disasters (Charveriat 2000). Others 213 1 0 93 8.5 Total 6898 210 707 707 275.9 There is evidence of increasing Source: INDECI 2005. frequency of natural disasters over well as in total number of disasters among all Peruvian the short as well as long-term departments over the recent five-year period from (World Bank 2006). Environmental degradation, 2000 to 2004 (Table 2), which represents a time frame urbanization, and demographic trends are contributing characterized by the absence of a strong El Niño event. to increasing disaster risk (World Bank 2006), while global warming may increasingly affect the exposure to weather-related hazards in the region (e.g., IPCC 2007 El Niño's Influence on Peru's Climate a, b). Originally, El Niño was perceived as a local Peru is divided into 25 departments. This study phenomenon. Anecdotal evidence suggests that focuses particularly on the departments of Piura and fishermen had observed warming of the usually cold Puno. Both departments are characterized by high coastal waters off the coast of Peru, which occurred vulnerability to climatic risks. semiperiodically around Christmastime and hence led to phenomenon being named after the child of Christ Piura is situated in northwestern Peru and encapsulates (e.g., Glantz 1996). Associated with these SST changes the region most noted for its vulnerability to El Niño were the disappearance of fish, starvation of sea birds, events. The department of Puno is part of the Andean and flooding events in Northern Peru and coastal altiplano, which stretches from 15º to 21º S, and Ecuador. is shared by Peru, Bolivia, and Chile. While ENSO also exerts its influence, the climate of the altiplano is Building on the research of Sir Gilbert Walker and, generally characterized by high annual and interannual later, Jacob Bjerkness, scientists began to reveal that the variability. Livelihoods in the region have to cope with local changes associated with El Niño in Peru are linked a broad variety of extremes, including floods, droughts, to changes, which play out over much larger spatial cold spells, and hail events. scales. According to the National Institute for Civil Defense El Niño is now recognized as one extreme outcome (INDECI), the Department of Puno in the altiplano of atmospheric interactions between the ocean and ranks highest in five individual disaster categories, as atmosphere in the tropical Pacific, known today as the Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO department of Piura, El Niño events are associated with counterpart of El Niño is La Niña. Both phenomena a prolonged and intensified rainy season (Figure 1). are exerting a strong influence on the global climate, While there is commonality in the direction of change, affecting regional temperature and precipitation each El Niño event has its individual temporal and patterns as well as extreme events. spatial characteristics. During non­El Niño years, the atmospheric pressure While El Niño events are often accompanied by in the eastern Southern Pacific (east of Tahiti) is higher climatic extremes in northwestern Peru, it also has some than in the west (near Darwin, Australia). As El Figure 1. Monthly Precipitation for (A) La Esperanza, and (B) Niño conditions evolve, this Huancabamba pressure gradient weakens, A La Esperanza turning off the engine 350.0 fueling trade winds. The Intertropical Convergence 300.0 Zone (ITCZ) is displaced 250.0 southward while SSTs warm 200.0 along the eastern equatorial 150.0 Pacific and off the Peruvian coast. This results in )mm(noitatipcerP 100.0 rainfall anomalies in coastal Jan 50.0 Feb regions of Northern Peru. Mar 0.0 Furthermore, the warming 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 of the coastal waters and Year weakening of the winds chokes off the upwelling B Huancabamba of cooler nutrient-rich 300 waters, which leads to the migration of fish stocks. 250 Due to the ENSO 200 phenomenon, Peru is Jan 150 Feb exposed to large climatic Mar interannual variations. The 100 climatic changes associated )mm(noitatipicerP with El Niño and La Niña, 50 however, differ considerably 0 between the coastal region 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 of northwestern Peru and Year the altiplano in the south. Note: Monthly precipitation averages for (a) La Esperanza (latitude: 04°55'04", longitude: 81°03'38"; altitude: 12 meters [m] above sea level [a.s.l.]), 1960­2000, and (b) Huancabamba (05°15', 79°43', 1,952 m) 1970­96, Peru. La Esperanza, representing the coastal region of northwestern Peru, shows a clear increase in rainfall during El Niño years, in particular during the strong In northwestern Peru, events of 1982­83 and 1997­98. El Niño years are also associated with spikes in precipitation in the sierras, as reflected in the rainfall record of Huancabamba, but rainfall in the highlands (alto) is generally more variable than in the low (bajo) and middle which includes the (medio) Piura. Source: Authors'analysis, based on data provided by CONAM. Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- A Country Perspective beneficial effects. The usually prevalent arid conditions experienced and represent a challenge to livelihoods limit agricultural activities to areas with (largely based on agricultural practices (see Table 1). seasonal) water supply from the rivers or access to irrigation. The extra water input during El Niño years The climate is generally semiarid and the rainy season also increases visibly the ecosystem productivity of the largely confined to austral summer months. Substantial region (Figure 2). El Niño should therefore not solely precipitation events usually begin around mid- be associated with disasters, but its positive effects also December and last until April (Figure 3). As a result, have to be recognized. agricultural activities are mainly limited to one planting season. While in Northwestern Peru rainfall totals are In contrast to northwestern Peru, the altiplano, which substantially lower, two to three annual planting cycles includes the department of Puno, is exposed to high can be possible during years with abundant water annual and interannual climate variability. A variety supply due to the widespread use of irrigation. of extreme events, including droughts, cold spells, floods, hail, and unseasonable snowfall are frequently Another general characteristic of the climate in the altiplano is a pronounced diurnal temperature range. The difference between daily maximum and minimum Figure 2. Piura, Northern Peru temperatures can be 35º C or more (Jordan 1991). A The effects of El Niño on the South American altiplano are more variable. El Niño conditions are associated with below-normal rainfall conditions or drought conditions, while La Niña appears to favor wetter conditions. The ENSO signals not as consistent as in northwestern Peru, however, and important exceptions occur. El Niño conditions tend to suppress the moisture transport from Amazonian lowlands into the altiplano by limiting the number of days with easterly flow due to the associated warming of the lower atmosphere B (Garreaud and Aceituno 2001). During La Niña years the opposite occurs. Increases in days with easterly winds promote the upslope transport of moist air into the altiplano, hence favoring wet conditions. While consequently El Niño is associated with drought conditions and La Niña with floods, this is not always the case, as the ENSO influence is highly sensitive to positive and negative anomalies in the flow of easterly winds (Garreaud and Aceituno 2001). Hence, other local-to-mesoscale disturbances can support or offset Note: The satellite image shows (a) the revitalized vegetation in the coastal the influence of ENSO on the climate of the altiplano. regions during the April 1998, an El Niño year, in comparison to (b) the prevalent For example, the strong El Niño of 1982­83 led to dry environment during the same month in 2001, a non­El Niño year. Source: CIP. Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru Figure 3. Monthly Precipitation Averages for Puno from 1931­73 the El Niño Southern Puno Oscillation (ENSO), an ocean atmosphere 250.00 phenomenon, which )mm(noitatipicerP200.00 spans the entire Pacific 150.00 basin and has global 100.00 effects on the climate. 50.00 The evolution of 0.00 global El Niño and La -50.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Niña events is closely Month associated with SST anomalies along the Note: Long-term averages of monthly precipitation totals with the associated standard deviations are presentd for Puno. The monthly values were averaged over the time-frame from 1931­73, which represents a period of continuous data recording. Each equatorial Pacific (as month is based on between 40 to 43 values. Source: Seimon. well as changes in the atmospheric pressure differences between the eastern widespread drought in the altiplano, while this was not and western Pacific regions). the case during the strong El Niño of 1997­98. International forecasts of global El Niño events Seimon (2004) suggests that ENSO may also influence predominantly concentrate on regions in the equatorial the length of the seasons in the altiplano, with El Pacific, which have shown high predicative capacity, Niño shortening and La Niña prolonging the summer such as the NINO 3, 4 and 3.4 regions (Figure 4). (rainy) season. In general, the influence of ENSO on Climate models driven by observed SSTs can now be the climate of the altiplano appears to be considerably used to forecast, with considerable skill, the evolution more complex and uncertain than in coastal regions in of El Niño events more than six months in advance the North. (Figure 5). Internationally, institutes such as the International Forecasting El Niño Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) The semiperiodic occurrence of El Niño and La Niña use SST thresholds that results in a 25%-50%- events and their important influence on the climate 25% distribution of La Niña, neutral, and El Niño of the region has spurred interest in the Figure 4. The NINO Regions applications of seasonal forecasts. In their forecasts, scientists focus on particular regions of the Pacific that have shown a strong correlation with the evolution of an El Niño (and La Niña) event. For Peru, two regions are of particular interest: the coastal Pacific and the equatorial Pacific. Note: Temperature anomalies observed in the NINO 3.4 and NINO 3 and 4 regions are As highlighted earlier, El Niño and La predominantly used in forecasting ENSO events. The NINO 1+2 region plays an important role in Niña are now recognized as components of influencing the climate of northwestern Peru, but is less well suited for seasonal climate forecasts. Source: IRI, http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/background/monitoring.html#Niño. 4 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- A Country Perspective Figure 5. NINO 3.4 Forecasts: Lead Time by accepted as global El Niño or La Niña years, they Month and Predictive Skill may not necessarily always trigger climatic changes in northwestern Peru that matter to local livelihoods. NOAA's climate prediction center uses a slightly different system for classifying warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) episodes of ENSO, which are based on thresholds above or below +/- 5ºC average seasonal SST sustained for a minimum of three consecutive months in the NINO 3.4 region, respectively. This results in a similar historical distribution of El Niño, normal, and La Niña years (see Appendix B). The main influence on interannual variability in northwestern Peru is associated with the NIÑO 1.2 region (Figure 4). The predictive skill for the NIÑO 1.2 region, however, is lower and, hence, forecasts have shorter lead times. Consequently, the SST thresholds often used for determining the evolution of a global El Niño do not necessarily always translate into a strong local El Niño in Northern Peru, which is associated Note: Depending on the month of observation, forecasts with a high predictive skill can be made of more than six months in advance of the event. with torrential rains and flooding conditions. Source: IRI, Columbia University. conditions over a base period from 1950­2002. This While changes in the NIÑO 3.4 region are certainly distribution reflects the number of global ENSO events important to the climate in Peru, it is important that have historically been recognized by experts. to recognize that other thresholds are better suited In order to arrive at such a distribution, the SST for El Niño conditions in Northwestern Peru and thresholds have to be adjusted throughout the year coastal Ecuador (Pilar, personal communication, to account for seasonal fluctuations in temperature Jaimez, personal communication). Local and regional (Table 3). Based on these thresholds, seasonal forecasts scientists certainly recognize this problem. Usually a are developed. While this classification system helps combination of indicators and different thresholds are to identify the years that have commonly been used by the national and regional centers when issuing Table 3. Three-Month Temperature Anomalies for Classification of El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) Conditions, in Degrees Celsius Season LN EN Season LN EN DJF -0.65 0.65 JJA -0.50 0.45 JFM -0.55 0.50 JAS -0.50 0.45 FMA -0.45 0.40 ASO -0.55 0.50 MAM -0.40 0.40 SON -0.75 0.70 AMJ -0.45 0.45 OND -0.75 0.75 MJJ -0.50 0.45 NDJ -0.70 0.75 Source: IRI, Columbia University. Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru their forecasts; however, this information is often not an integrative framework that also strongly focuses published in international scientific journals. on disaster prevention, by identifying risks and vulnerabilities (World Bank 2006). The altiplano of Peru is predominantly influenced by changes in the equatorial in the SST along the The Plan Nacional de Prevencion y Atencion de equatorial Pacific; i.e., changes in the NINO 3.4 region. Desastres (National Plan for the Prevention and Attention to Disasters) was approved in 2004. The plan Despite the widespread influence of ENSO on includes objectives and identifies specific strategies, climatic conditions, there is no uniform definition of aimed at improving the risk assessment, vulnerability El Niño conditions that automatically would apply reduction, integration of risk management into also to local climatic conditions. In the case of Peru, public planning, strengthening institutions and the the experience developed by national and regional participation of communities. However, there are meteorological organizations in identifying thresholds currently no clear definitions of the responsibilities of that are locally relevant is of considerable importance. the individual institutions and their specific operational SENAMHI and other organizations do evaluate the roles (World Bank 2006). accuracy of forecasts; however, much of this knowledge and information on thresholds is not published Given the vulnerability to hydrometeorological hazards internationally or is at least publicly available. and the strong influence of ENSO, the growing emphasis on vulnerability reduction is also reflected in As there are different classifications for El Niño events institutional efforts to collect and disseminate climate based on the ever-evolving indexes and practices on information, aimed at reducing the vulnerabilities of the national and international level, this may lead to climate-sensitive sectors. conflicting messages. The Climate Outlook Forums represented a promising effort to develop a consensus Disaster preparedness efforts focused on ENSO events view on the status of El Niño events in various regions are coordinated by the National Study of the El of the world (IRI 2001); however, it has not translated Niño Phenomenon (Estudio Nacional del Fenomeno into continuous coordination efforts for scientific El Niño; ENFEN), which addresses the national forecasts in this region. component of the Regional Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (Estudio Regional del Fenomeno El Given the strong influence of ENSO on climatic Niño; ERFEN). ERFEN was established as a program characteristics, forecasts have not only focused on by the Permanent Commission for the South Pacific alerting for El Niño events, but also on providing more (Comisión Permanente del Pacifico Sur) in 1974 and continuous insights into the climatic conditions of the guided by national committees from its four member region. These forecasts are presented as probabilistic countries. Aside from Peru, these include Colombia, assessments of whether a particular region will be faced Ecuador, and Chile (Garcia-Godos et al. 2004). with drier, wetter, or average climatic conditions. ENFEN Peru is comprised of six national institutions Institutional Structures for Disaster and (Table 4). The information flow between the various Climate Risk Management institutions is presented in Figure 6. Over the last five years, there has been an increasing The climate and oceanic conditions are monitored shift away from a reactive approach predominantly by IMARPE, IGP, DHN, and SENAMHI. Based on focused on disaster mitigation and toward building a collective and consensus-finding process, El Niño forecasts are being issued. Smaller-scale interventions Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- A Country Perspective Table 4. Members of ENFEN­Peru ENFEN Institutions Focus IMARPE: Instituto del Mar del Peru IGP: Instituto Geofisico del Peru DHN: Direccion de Hidrografia y Navegacion (within the Navy) SENAMHI: Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia Climate Monitoring INDECI: Instituto Nacional de Defensa Civil INRENA: Instituto Nacional de Recursos Naturales Disaster Prevention & Mitigation Source: J. Garcia-Godos and others, 2004. Prepared as part of a project initiative. are often implemented by members of ENFEN itself, through the existing local institutional networks of while larger-scale projects are usually presented by these executive agencies. INDECI to the relevant ministries, such as the Ministry of Transport (Garcia-Godos et al. 2004). The institutions most directly engaged in the dissemination of climate information are SENAMHI, INDECI and INRENA both work on local levels INDECI, and INRENA. SENAMHI, as the national (Garcia-Godos et al. 2004). This provides the meteorological service, monitors climate and weather opportunity to engage in awareness raising, feedback, conditions for the entire country. The General and information exchange with local populations Directorate for Agrometeorology (GDA) situated Figure 6. Diagram of Information Flow through ERFEN Network in Peru Instituto del Public alerts Mar del Perú IMARPE National System of Civil Defense Instituto Instituto Coordination with Geofísico Nacional de Nacional Defensa Civil ministries IGN INDECI Monthly newsletter to public Comité & Multisectorial technical ENFEN report to government Dirección de Hidrografía y Instituto Nacional de Recursos Navegación Naturales INRENA DHN (MINAG) Alert within MINAG Servicio Nacional de INRENA PERPEC as Meteorología e coordinating unit Hidrografía SENAMHI Coordination with MINAG regional offices Weather and seasonal forecasts through public media Source: J. Garcia-Godos et al. 2004, prepared as part of this study. Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru within SENAMHI, focuses on the generation of MINAG combines statistical production data with agrometeorological forecasts. Relevant data on crop climate information from SENAMHI. The agricultural productivity is collected on a weekly basis by a locally data is collected by staff from agrarian agencies working recruited agent, who is usually a local farmer trained at the district level, which constitutes the lowest by SENAMHI. The data is then usually transmitted administrative unit in Peru. The data is based largely via phone, which also allows for passing on other on assessments and estimates and does not include potentially important information, such as local systematic surveys (Garcia-Godos et al. 2004). After knowledge of environmental indicators. Consultations the analysis, the information generated by MINAG is with GDA suggest, however, while staff are aware of then passed on to agrarian agencies at the provincial this knowledge, there are currently now systematic and district level. The information, however, does not efforts to collect and evaluate such knowledge and always get there due to bottlenecks in the distribution compare it with scientific forecasts (Garcia-Godos et al. path. Other information arrives with a time lag of 20 2004). days or more (Garcia-Godos et al. 2004). Consequently, the forecasting aspect for the end user may be lost, GDA also monitors the phonological development of limiting the practical relevance of the information in crops in relation to weather conditions in more than guiding strategies aimed at vulnerability reduction or 400 observatories across the country. The information disaster preparedness. gathered by GDA is made publicly available in three types of bulletins: one bulletin focused on short- term trends is published every 10 days, and two Climate Change -- Challenge and monthly reports, focused on hydrometeorological and Institutional Response agroclimatic conditions, also provide information on Over the past 100 years (1906­2005), the earth's tendencies and forecasts. annual surface temperature has increased by about While SENAMHI aims to provide information for 0.74ºC (IPCC 2007). The rate of warming is authorities and farmers, the main user of the climate accelerating. A total of 11 of the 12 warmest years information collected by GDA is indeed the Ministry on record have occurred in the past 12 years, and the of Agriculture (MINAG), and the General Directorate projected increase in global mean surface temperature of Agrarian Information edits the information into between 1990 and 2100 is projected to lie between 1.0 a more user-friendly format and distributes it to to 6.3ºC. As global warming of this century will be its regional directorates. The detailed agroclimatic more pronounced than the trends observed in the last information, however, requires access to the internet. century, it is expected to bring more drastic changes in A pilot project has been launched by SENAMHI and climate and associated environmental responses. MINAG in the Cañete Valley of Peru to assist farmers Given the diverse climates and ecosystems, steep with Internet access to utilize this information for topographies, existing disaster risk, and high improving crop production. In general, the distribution dependency of livelihoods on natural resources in channels of these forecasts are still limited, as this Peru, climate change poses an additional threat to the requires adequate literacy and access to a computer sustainable development prospects of the country. (Garcia-Godos et al. 2004). Consequently, the main There is a need to understand how climate change communication of climate information occurs through will impact climatic conditions across temporal and radio broadcasts, which receive information updates spatial scales, affect the provision of ecosystem services, from SENAMHI. and alter the exposure to climatic extremes. Given the influence of ENSO on Peru's climate and disaster risk, 8 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- A Country Perspective it is furthermore important to gain insights into the American countries (see Vergara 2005 for details on implications of global warming on the occurrence and project activities). magnitude of El Niño and La Niña events. Improving such knowledge will be essential to guiding longer-term Of major concern are the implications of climate development-planning processes and complementing change for the water balance for the Andean region existing efforts aimed at reducing vulnerabilities to and the associated economic consequences (Vergara current climatic risks. et al. 2007). The majority of Peru's population and economic activities are located along the coast and in It is interesting that Peru's efforts in climate change so highlands. Both regions are predominantly dry and far have been more focused on the international policy highly dependent on runoff from the cordilleras. Recent dialogue and on mitigation options for the emission of research confirms a massive retreat of glaciers, which greenhouse gases (World Bank 2006). Only recently is in line with overall warming trends and an upward has Peru increased its emphasis on identifying and shift in freezing point isotherm (Kaser 2001, Francou implementing adaptation measures to climate change. et al. 2003). The retreat of glaciers results in an initial temporary increase in runoff, followed by a decline The institutional landscape for managing environmental and shutoff of water supply as the glacier disappears. and natural hazards in Peru is undergoing change itself. Given that glaciers have been shown to contribute The country is setting up for the first time a Ministry considerably to the overall water balance in river basins of Environment. Most of the efforts to mainstream in the Andes, the downstream implications of a decline climate change policies into national development in in this freshwater resource represents a considerable Peru have been led by the Consejo Nacional Ambiental and growing challenge to agricultural activities and (National Council for the Environment (CONAM), hydropower generation in the region (Vergara et al. which has been chairing the National Commission on 2007). Climate Change. The new ministry will place a strong emphasis on addressing climate change, likely building CONAM's experiences through the PROCLIM project Climate Change and El Niño and emphasis of a holistic approach, which focuses Another concern is the influence of climate change on mitigation (reduction of greenhouse gases) and on atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns and adaptation. associated consequences for such phenomena as ENSO. As part of its efforts to assess climate change risks, Current scientific thinking suggests that the climate CONAM has also assessed the potential implications will enter a weak El Niño­like mean state, with El of climate change for the occurrence of El Niño events. Niño events resembling strong El Niño events of today Using a range of climate change models, CONAM (e.g. IPCC 2001a). This is echoed by results of a recent found an increase of the SST in the NINO 3 region climate change study conducted by CONAM, which under global warming scenarios (Figure 7), which shows a warming trend in SST for NINO 3, a region suggests that conditions may become more conducive where SST anomalies are correlated with the occurrence to the evolution of El Niño events. of ENSO events (Figure 7). The World Bank is engaged in research focused on Since 1976, more warm El Niño episodes than cold La identifying climate change impacts and vulnerabilities Niña episodes have been observed, but it is currently and developing project activities that promote not clear whether this can be attributed to climate adaptation to climate change in Peru and other Latin change. Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru With more El Niño­like general climatic conditions drier conditions in the altiplano, but the link between and an increased frequency of strong El Niño events, El Niño and climate change is not fully resolved and one may expect wetter conditions in Northern Peru and hence such effects are still largely speculative. Figure 7. NINO 3 Region Climate Trends Note: Climate simulations suggest a general warming trend for the NINO 3 region. As positive anomalies in SSTs are associated with El Niño conditions, this may suggest a shift toward a more El Niño­like climate conditions. The colors show different simulation runs by Global Climate Models for the NINO 3 region, all of which point toward an increase in sea surface temperature. Source: CONAM. 0 Environment Department Papers 2 Climate Resilient Development-- Community Perspectives T he previous sections have presented an overview does the overall risk profile. Based on these responses of the exposure of Peru to natural hazards with and in recognition of national risk management a strong emphasis on the influence of El Niño structures, adaptive capacity-building needs aimed on climate risks and then described the existing at increasing the resilience to climate variability and institutional structures for disaster prevention and change are discussed. preparedness. In this context, climate change has been recognized for its threat to sustainable development due to its potential implications for the natural and water Approach resources effects and the associated consequences for Under coordination by the Centro Internacional de la Peru's economy. Papa (CIP), the community assessments were carried out by the Intermediate Technology Development In light of climate change, the existing vulnerabilities Group (ITDG) in the department of Piura and Centro associated with the annual and interannual climate de Investigacion de Recursos Naturales y Medio variability and ENSO underscore the importance Ambiente (Research Center for Natural Resources and of adaptive measures that enhance the resilience of Environment; CIRNMA) in the department of Puno. livelihoods and economic processes in Peru. Adaptation to climate change hence has to begin with better In Piura, a total of four communities were selected managing current climate risks and should be viewed covering a transect from the coast to the sierras in as a continuous process. Adaptive measures range from the proximity of the Piura river (Map 2, Piura). strategies, policies, and investment frameworks enacted The assessment included the coastal community of at the national level to efforts at the local level. The Parachique (sea level, bajo Piura), Chato Grande (30 time horizon of adaptive strategies and measures has to m a.s.l, bajo Piura), Locuto (80 m a.s.l, medio Piura) be tailored according to the scope of the activity and and Cabuyal in sierras of Piura (1,470 m a.s.l., alto capacity of the target groups. Piura). A description of the individual community characteristics is provided in Table 5. This chapter focuses on how communities perceive the risks of their environment and how they cope and For the assessments in Puno, six communities in adapt. The experiences of communities in living in the different proximity to Lake Titicaca were selected, department of Piura, northwestern Peru, are juxtaposed including the communities of Santa Maria (3,862 m with the situation of communities in the department of a.s.l), Ancacca (3,950­4,050 m a.s.l.), Yanamocco Puno, representing the Peruvian altiplano. Both regions (3,841 m a.s.l.), Candile (3,834 m a.s.l.), Cari Cari have in common an interannual climate variability (3,950 m a.s.l) and Alto Achuyo (3,947 m a.s.l.). influenced by ENSO. The effects of El Niño and La Further information on the individual communities Niña on the climate, however, differ considerably, as is provided in Table 6, and spatial information Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru Map 2. Location of Communities Assessed in Piura concerning the location of communities relative to Lake Titicaca is given in Map 3. A participatory process was chosen to elicit information from the communities. The assessments first focused on the perceptions of each community concerning their exposure to environmental risks Source: CIP. and hazards. Participants were asked to recall events that constituted a major disaster to the community by significantly affecting human health, infrastructure, or production systems. Table 5. Community Characteristics, Piura In Piura, the community Department of Piura, N-Peru members voted on the Parachique (5°45'51" S/ 80°51'53" W, sea level): Representing bajo (lower) Piura, this coastal community located at the fringes of the Sechura desert largely depends on fishing activities. Four types of fishermen can be distinguished: artisan fisherman, who use lines or nets; shellfish divers; boat owners; and industrial fishermen, who harvest fish of up to 50 metric tons (MT), predomi- nantly for the fish meal industry.The poorest segments of Parachique's inhabitants do not participate in fishing activities and solely depend on dryland farming and products of the dry forest. Many women obtain income by processing shellfish. Chato Grande (5°21'20" S/ 80°40'3" W/ 30 m a.s.l): An inland community of bajo Piura, Chato Grande is located in the lower watershed of the Piura river. Fertile soils are interspersed with tropical dry forest. Having access to irrigation, the community's main activity is crops (cotton, rice, maize, beans). Goats and poultry are also raised. Locuto (4°54'53" S, 80°20'56" W, 80 m a.s.l): Located in the tropical dry forest in medio (middle) Piura, the carob tree (algarrobo, Prosopis limensis) plays a central role in the livelihood of Locuto's inhabitants, who harvest the beans and also use the tree for fuelwood and charcoal. The carob tree is also an important resource for handicrafts (along with two other tree species: Cordia rotudifolia, Cappais angulata). Farming activities are concentrated in the riverbed areas, which have sufficient moisture for plant- ing sweet potatoes, maize, beans, and various fruits. Depending on rainfall, planting activities (mainly beans and watermelon) are occasionally extended in forest areas cleared for production. Livestock includes predominantly sheep and goats. Beekeeping is also common activity. Cabuyal (5°02'17" S, 79°49'42" W, 1,470 m a.s.l.): The area of this highland community of alto (higher) Piura extends from 1,400­2,000 m above sea level, with nucleated population center being located at around 1,470 m a.s.l.Agricultural activities are diversified, including dryland farming of maize, wheat, beans, and green peas, along with fruit trees and coffee at lower elevations. Livestock production is also of importance. With respect to climate, it is important to note the specific characteristics of this part of the sierras. At these lower elevations of the sierra, southeast winds bringing humidity from the Amazon meet westerly airflows from the Pacific. As a result, this area experiences heavy rainfalls, which is unique in the highlands. Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives Map 3. Location of Communities in Puno also presented with various information formats and asked to provide feedback on the value of this information for practical information needs. Besides formal information sources, community representatives were asked to describe the type of local indicators or other informal sources of information that they consider of value in warning of climatic extremes or predicting the climate characteristics of forthcoming seasons. The assessments then discussed which coping severity of the events and ranked them accordingly. and adaptation mechanisms the community members In Puno, the communities first ranked the hazards currently employ to lessen their vulnerability to and the according to their level of concern and general impact of extreme climatic events. impact. As the number of hazard events recalled by the communities in Puno was too high, it was The goal of the discussions was also to identify the decided to solely focus on major disaster events. A current challenges and barriers communities perceive time line for these events was then constructed. The in managing climatic conditions. These discussions individual events were discussed in focus groups, focused on information needs, constraints within the including stakeholders involved in managing risks or community, and external barriers. who most affected by the event. In Puno, CIRNMA also developed spatial risk maps with the focus groups, Based on these discussions, each community then detailing the impact zone of major disaster events in the developed recommendations of action that could be communities. undertaken without and with external assistance to strengthen the resilience to climatic hazards. The results Following the discussion of hazard risks, disaster events, of the individual community assessments were then and vulnerabilities, the discussions then concentrated presented in regional workshops in the cities of Piura on the availability and use of weather and climate and Lima, where community representatives from Piura information. Community members were asked whether and Puno were brought together with representatives and how they obtain access to external information, from governmental institutions and researchers engaged the trust they place in the various information sources, in disaster preparedness. Together the participants and whether and how they respond to the information identified cross-cutting issues and prioritized the core content. In this context, community participants were issues that needed to be addressed. Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru Table 6. Community Characteristics, Puno Department of Puno, altiplano, S-Peru Santa Maria (16°07'08" S, 69°39'30" W, 3,862 m a.s.l): This Aymara peasant community is located 4 km away from Ilave, consisting of 130 families. In recent years, young adults are migrating to Tacna, Ilo, and Arequipa in search of work. The community is mainly dedicated to crop production. Approxi- mately 70% of the land is planted with potato, quinoa, ollucos, and forages like alfalfa and oats. Land constitutes a limiting resource, with the community covering 340 hectares (ha). Production areas include pampa (60%), hillside (20%), and hills (20%). Approximately 25 ha are cultivated. Cattle, sheep, and small animals represent complementary income sources. On average, a family owns three cattle, six sheep, two pigs, four chicken. Some families also have guinea pigs. Terraces are used or being built for agricultural activities. There is no access to irrigation. Planting decisions are made through the aynoka system, mean- ing decisions on when and where to plant are made collectively, but the farming activity is made collectively. Organizations working in the community: PRONAMACHS, mother's club. Ancacca (16°07'42" S, 70°02'22" W, 3,950­4,050 m a.s.l.): The peasant community of Anccaca has a population of 66 Aymara families, and is 38 km southwest of the city of Puno. It belongs to the Pichacani district, in the province of Laraqueri. It has 842.5 ha of land of individual access, and 270 ha given through agrarian reform for communal use. It has a board that oversees the community. Two-thirds of the land is managed individually, while a third is communal. Even though some crops are grown in this region, the risk of loss is high, making livestock production their main economic activity. Seventy percent of the land is in the pampas. There is cultivation of potato, quinoa, and cañiwa for food, and forages for livestock. Wells for irrigation were constructed in 1987, but these do not work well. The community has a communal building, a preschool, an elementary school, a storage facility for potato seed, and dip for sheep. There is electricity in the homes, and a reservoir of potable water. The main institution working with the community is the Corredor Economico Puno-Cusco (Economic Corridor of Puno-Cusco) which provides technical assistance for livestock, handicrafts, and husbandry of small animals. This community has a strong organization, meeting every 30 days. In the last year, they suffered from frost and drought from January to March (growing season). Young people migrate to other provinces in search of farming jobs. Yanamocco (5°40'28" S, 70°05'15" W, 3,841 m a.s.l.): This peasant community is located in the Suni A agroecological zone, 35 km from Lake Titicaca in the province of Atuncolla. It is a Quechua community of 43 families that are registered, and 44 that are not. This community has approximately 133 ha. It also has land received during the Land Reform. It has 470 ha of grazing land appropriate for South American camelids, and 96 ha of agricultural land. Most of Yanamocco is located in the pampas, in the watershed of river Illpa. The land is suitable for pastures such as alfalfa. The limited crop production is mainly for household consumption. It has its own governing committee that includes defense, rondas campesinas (peasant patrols), an el vaso de leche committee (glass of milk committee), a committee for electricity, one for forages, and a mother's club and neighbor's committee. Because most of the landscape is pampa, it is prone to floods and frost. Dairy production is the main economic activity. CIRNMA, CARITAS Puno, and the municipality have been working on forage production. There is also processing of dairy products and an improvement in cattle breeding. All of the production is in the pampa. The community has some raised fields (Waru Warus), a pre-Inca technology, to manage flood risks and improve micro-climatic conditions for crop plannting,, and eight terraces (Andenes). A study of economic conditions (CIRNMA 2004) showed that families with greater resources have on average 25 cattle, 62 sheep, 9 pigs, 16 chicken, and two to 10 alpacas. Those in the middle of the economic spectrum have 13 cattle, 22 sheep, three pigs, and three chickens, and some have alpacas. Those with lesser resources have on average seven cattle, 11 sheep, one pig, seven chickens, and no alpacas. Regarding infrastructure, they own a local community building, a potato seed center, a health facility, and a preschool facility (daycare, or wawahuasi). Organizations in the region work with CARE on training in agriculture, CIRNMA on credit and training in livestock production, the Corredor Economico Puno-Cusco on training and technical assistance, Caritas Puno on setting up cultivated pastures, and the Ministry of Agriculture on training in animal production and health. Some families are producing yogurt and cheese. The resource-endowed women work on handicrafts such as blankets, sweaters, and socks in the evenings. Candile (15°35'31" S, 69°56'47" W, 3,834 m a.s.l.): Candile represents a sector of the larger peasant community of Carata.The population is predominantly Quechua and consists of 100 families and an additional 10 migrant families. Crops are the main activity.These include potato, quinoa, cañiwa, barley grain and forage, and oats. Livestock production also plays an important role. There are approximately 740 cattle, 900 sheep, and 150 pigs. Fishing represents an additional income source. The total extension of land is 610 ha, of which 300 ha are used for grazing and 300 ha for crop planting. Waru warus, or raised fields, a pre-Inca technology to manage water floods on crops fields, are found in Candile (in the community of Yanamocco). Cari Cari (15°46'33" S, 70°21'42" W, 3,950 m a.s.l): The population center of Accopata, Cari Cari, is a Quechua community located 40 km northeast of Puno. This is not a registered center. It belongs to a peasant organization, CentralAccopata, recognized in 1967. It is located in Mañazo, 40 km northeast of Puno. It has approximately 100 families. Cari Cari has 212 ha managed individually, and 1,425 ha that are managed by the community. It has mostly a pampas landscape. There are 160 ha suitable for crops. Potatoes, quinoa, and faba beans, along with forages, are the main crops. Cattle, sheep, and alpaca are the main types of animals kept. Wealthier families own on average 30 cattle, 55 sheep, six alpacas, and two pigs.Amiddle-income family owns nine cattle, 17 sheep, three alpacas, and one pig. Low-income families own three cattle, 14 sheep, two alpacas, and one pig, on average. Young adults migrate to other regions when natural disasters occur. Only a few families own trees. There is a primary and a secondary school, although the latter is too small to adequately accommodate all children. There is a preschool and a health building, but no health care provider. The community is currently working with CIRNMA on microfinance and livestock technical support, and with the Universidad Nacional del Altiplano Puno on potato production al partir (sharecropping). Caritas Puno and the municipality of Mañazo have been working there since 2002 to establish forages). PECSAprovides support on animal health. Youth migrate in search of work when there are unfavorable climatic conditions for agricultural activities. Alto Achuyo (16°14'28" S, 69°01'45" W, 3,947 m a.s.l.): Representing an Aymara population center, 100 families live in this community, which extends across 210 ha of land. Alto Achuyo represents one of six sectors of Achuyo, which is recognized as a community and has its own public officials. The hillsides of the community are predominantly used for cultivation. Alto Achuyo is located near Lake Titicaca and the Winaymarka. Both lakes influence the climate of the community. Crops constitute the main activity, followed by livestock and handicrafts. The crop rotation consists of potatoes, followed by oca, faba beans, wheat or barley, forages, Tarwi, and fallow. All families own plots on all of the hillsides in the aynocas. The community has old terraces that are still used. No irrigation projects exist. Families usually possess three cattle, 15 sheep, four pigs, and three chickens, on average. Organizations working in the community include PRONAMACHS, Intervida, the church, and PRADERA. 4 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives Perspectives from Communities in Piura Concerning the relevance of El Niño in the risk and Puno perceptions of the communities, it is striking that only strong El Niño events are recalled as disasters. The The following sections are structured around the communities either directly identified these events as following themes: 1) Disaster Risks and Impacts, 2) disasters (Parachique) or clearly linked the observed Vulnerability, 3) Coping with and Adapting to Climate heavy rains and flooding to El Niño in the recollection Hazards, 4) Information: Weather Forecasts, Early of disaster events (Chato Grande, Locuto, and Warning, and Seasonal Climate Outlooks, and 5) Cabuyal). Traditional Information and Knowledge. Each theme is briefly introduced in its relevance to climate resilient Cabuyal is the only community that recalled a development. The results of community assessments disastrous rainfall episode that was not linked to El in northwestern Peru and Piura are then presented Niño. The heavy precipitation experience in 2001 and subsequently discussed, drawing on data records, was in fact considered the most severe disaster in the publications, and complementary interviews. recollection of the community. Disaster Risks and Impacts The flooding event experienced by Chato Grande in 2002 was not linked by the community to El This section sets the stage for the subsequent Niño (despite being classified as an El Niño year; see discussions by outlining the exposure to natural hazards Appendix B). The community associated El Niño and and impacts on the livelihoods of the community. associated floods with intense rainfall episodes, which The community assessments outline their personal did not occur as that time. 2002 was the first time in perceptions of disaster risks and how the individual the memory of the community participants that a flood hazard types have translated into disaster events occurred without preceding intense rainfall. that have adversely affected human health, assets, or development prospects. The disaster impacts of the The communities all highlighted various drought communities are not only a function of the exposure episodes that significantly impacted their livelihood. to a particular hazard event, but also the outcome of During the time of the assessment (2005), the current the underlying vulnerability factors. Therefore, the drought period was a shared concern. The starting discussions here are closely linked to the subsequent and end dates of the dry periods assigned to the recent sections on vulnerability, coping and adaptive and preceding drought periods differed between the capacities, and information access. communities. Aside from the recent dry period, the 1960s, and in particular, 1968, were remembered as times when the community severely suffered under Piura drought conditions, as highlighted in the assessments The recollection of disaster events by the communities in Chato Grande and Cabuyal. Other dry periods in Piura illustrate the challenge of coping with too were individually reported by the communities, but wet and too dry conditions (Table 7) in the coastal not shared. The coastal community of Parachique (bajo Piura) and lowlands (medio Piura). Cabuyal, the also equates dry periods with colder-than-usual community assessed in the sierra (alto Piura), is exposed temperatures. to extremely wet conditions. It suffers less from too dry In Cabuyal in the sierras of Piura (alto Piura), conditions as the rainy season is more consistent, but experiences also highlighted a range of other climatic the community representatives highlight other climatic hazards, which are experienced on an annual basis extremes that frequently destroy their assets. Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru and hence constitute a consistent challenge for it is predominantly the strong events of 1982­83 the community. These include annually recurring and 1997­98, where the negative effects outweighed fogs during the rainy season and strong winds. the positive impacts. During these events, the initial Nonclimatic events, which were recorded as disasters destructive impacts associated with the floods and heavy in the discussion, include a forest fire (Locuto), and rainfalls predominate. More moderate events in the earthquakes (Parachique, Locuto, and Cabuyal), as well 15-year period between these two strong El Niño events as cholera epidemics (Parachique, Locuto). were not highlighted as disasters in the discussion. In fact, according to the perception of communities, if the The responses from all four communities show a households are able to cope with the floods and heavy persistent vulnerability to climatic hazards. Associated rain, the subsequent effects of El Niño are desirable, as with the range of predominantly climate-related hazards they represent the opportunity to increase agricultural experienced by communities, impacts on infrastructure, and livestock production. human health, education, and economic activities are recurrent themes (Table 8). Prolonged dry conditions are generally perceived as Of the major disaster events recalled by the negative. The only exception in the assessments is communities, years with strong El Niño events are the fishing community in Parachique, where most featured in the ranking of all communities. There livelihoods benefit from favorable fishing conditions. is a clear understanding that El Niño is associated None of the communities, however, relate dry with excessive and prolonged rainfall episodes, but conditions to La Niña events. There appears to be Table 7. Disaster Events, as Recalled and Ranked by Communities in Piura, Peru Community Ranking Parachique Chato Grande Locuto Cabuyal 1 Floods, climatic extremes Floods (1997­98 El Dry spells & droughts Heavy rains (2001) (1982­83 El Niño) Niño) (2001­05) 2 Dry spells, droughts Floods (1982­83 El Flooding and climatic Drought period, below nor- (1998­2005) Niño) extremes (1997­98 El mal rains (2003­05) Niño) 3 Cholera, 1992 Piura river flooding Forest fire (1998) Strong winds (annual (2002, not recognized as problem) an El Niño year by com- munity) 4 Floods, climatic extremes Drought periods: Flooding and climatic Fog (annual problem impact- (1972 El Niño) 1960­68, extremes (1982­83 El ing crops) 1972­80, Niño) 2003­05 (equally ranked by com- munity) 5 Dry spells, droughts Cholera (1992­93) Floods, heavy and pro- (1970­85) longed rains (1997­98 El Niño) 6 Earthquake (1972) Floods, heavy and pro- longed rains (1982­83 El Niño) 7 Earthquake (1970) Earthquake 1970 8 Drought (1968) Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives no clear conceptual understanding of La Niña as the counterpart of El Niño. Table 8. Impacts of Climate Hazards Identified in the Community Assessments in Piura Impacts Highlighted in: Parachique Chato Grande Locuto Cabuyal Event (coastal, bajo Piura) (bajo Piura) (medio Piura) (alto Piura) El Niño Housing & infrastructure: Housing & infrastructure: Housing & infrastructure: While Cabuyal usually receives · Destroyed houses (eastern · Collapsed houses; impact Isolation considerable rainfall during the ra- sector of bay most affected) on school building iny season, El Niño events increase · School building destroyed · After flooding in 1983, Health: the length, and sometimes also the · Isolation (road to Sechura 24% of the community Increase in malaria intensity, of the rainy season, and and bridge affected) was relocated to Nuevo the preceding months are charac- Chato Grande, which is Agriculture & livestock: terized by high levels of humidity Education: perceived as a disintegra- · Loss of crops; during the (Angulo, personal communication) Delay in education (classes tion of the village's social 1997­98 event, the Piura suspended in 1972 & 1983) structure river changed course Infrastructure & housing: · Loss of schooling time and destroyed fields in Isolation due to collapse of Carras- Health: due to building damage its path; compounding quillo bridge and road blockage · Increase in vector-borne isolation. Children were effects of increases in from landslides diseases withdrawn from classes pests. · Malnutrition; food supply low for extended period due · Afterward, agrochemi- Agriculture & livestock: during flooding events to the adverse economic cals were introduced to · Loss of crops and seeds situation of some families. improve yields. · Loss of fertile land (landslides Fisheries: · High mortality in livestock and erosion) Negative impact for small-scale Health: due to lack of protection. · Increases in fungal diseases; fisheries, which suffer from Increase in vector-borne Compounding effects about half of the crops were lost migration of fish stocks diseases, lack of clean water from increases in disease in 1997­98 associated with increase and parasites. · Loss of livestock Agriculture: in diarrhea, and respitatory · Increase in livestock diseases Initial adverse impacts from problems. Positive effect: (e.g., anthrax and foot and floods are followed by subse- · Revitalization of dry forest mouth, and emergence of oth- quent benefits from revitalized Agriculture & livestock: · Reactivation and expan- ers, such as Tupe) dry forest and ecosystems. · Loss of crops and sion of occasional fields. · Decline in livestock sale price Increased pasture and planting seeds,destroyed harvest · Increase in cattle theft and crime areas. of the long (Feb & March) El Niño events are generally and short (July) planting recognized for their positive Community structure: season in 1997­98; simi- longer-term effect on agricul- Migration of resource-poor lar impact in 1982­83. ture and livestock activities. household members in search for · During heavy rains and additional income floods, loss of pasture. Increase in pests and ani- Positive, subsequent effect: mal diseases; decrease in · Increase in pastures livestock · Increase in livestock numbers · Irrigation channels were partially destroyed or silted up. · Migration of resource- poor households · Longer-term positive effect: · Rains reactivated oc- casional fields, where farming is dependent on rain. · Increase in pasture after floods receded; increase in livestock Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru Impacts Highlighted in: Parachique Chato Grande Locuto Cabuyal Event (coastal, bajo Piura) (bajo Piura) (medio Piura) (alto Piura) Drought Agriculture & livestock: Agriculture & livestock: Human health: The drought of 1968 is present in No rain-fed agriculture possi- · Impact reduced due to · Malnutrition, especially the collective memory of the com- ble; degradation of dry forest; access to irrigation. in children, associated munity, as the absence of rain trig- decimation of livestock · Planting and crop selec- with a drop in school gered widespread migration. The tion constrained. performance. recent dry period is associated with Beneficiaries: · Lack of pasture · Increase in gastroin- below-normal rainfall conditions for The cold and nutrient-rich · Drop in milk production, testinal and respiratory several years. waters improve fishing condi- increase of animal dis- diseases associated with tions. Families can increase eases and mortality lack of water and bad Agriculture & livestock: income. · Drop in sale prices for quality. Pastures dried up in 1968; farmers livestock were forced to sell livestock or land Agriculture & livestock: to obtain food and compensate · Lack of water made it for losses. No milk and cheese Education: impossible to plant in the production. Resource-poor families floodplain (usual planting The recent dry period is less severe withdraw children from area) in 2002 and 2003; but has led to a significant decline school to help with income- iIn 2004, these fields in agriculture output. generating activities (male could only be planted us- children over eight, girls did ing a reduced sowing rate Human health: not receive education becau- · Scarcity of pasture and Increase in malnutrition, particularly se of this situation) food for animals. among children (deaths of children · Lack of water and elderly were highlighted for Community structure: · Increases of diseases 1968). Resource-poor families or such as plague and families who lost land during diarrhea and parasites in Education: preceding 2002 flood could animals; malnutrition of School performance decreases; not generate enough inco- livestock, loss of weight resource-poor families withdraw me; family members forced · No milk production from children as they cannot cover to temporarily migrate. goats education-related expenses. · Drop of sales price, buy- ers exploit situation · Quantity of syrup from the carob tree in the dry forest reduced; reduced production of honey. Environmental Degrada- tion: Increase in deforestation due to the collection of fue- lwood as alternative income source. Other Cholera epidemic 1972: Flood of 2002: Cholera 1992: Heavy rains, 2001: Deaths of children and Impacts similar to above, Deaths of children and Collapse of houses, isola- elderly but shorter in duration. adults tion due to damages to roads The community has not and bridges, loss of animals, Earthquake: been able to fully recover Earthquakes 1970, erosion. Destruction of houses the partially destroyed 1972: irrigation channels, which Caused a spilt in the Strong winds: further constrained the Piura riverbed. Occur annually in May and planting options during June, sometimes lasting into the subsequent drought. July; knock down crops and Positive effects: Revital- trees and cause damage to ization of the occasional houses and an increase in fields and extension of erosion. pasture after the flood receded. Fog: Occurs annually during the rainy season and usually con- tinues until May and June. The persistent humidity promotes the proliferation of pests and hence impacts the income sources of the population. 8 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives The challenge for the communities in Piura lies in being from September 1982 to April 1983 and 1,000 mm able to overcome the destructive effects of El Niño and from September 1997 to April 1998. to utilize its benefits in order to build up assets that carry them through marginally productive dry years. Given the general absence of pronounced rainfall For highland community Cabuyal, the smaller but during normal years, dry years as classified by the annually recurring climate hazards represent additional coastal community of Parachique, Chato Grande, constraints in securing livelihoods. The ability to and Locuto are predominantly associated with lack anticipate and prepare for climate events such as El of water supply from the Piura River during the rainy Niño should therefore theoretically help to reduce the season. It is the resulting impact on the agricultural existing vulnerabilities. productivity that then leads to the classification of years as drought years. Given that the communities During strong El Niño events, the excessive rainfall refer to agricultural droughts, this may explain the collecting in the Piura River basin triggers often massive different start and end dates of some of the drought increases in water levels and water volumes transported periods highlighted by the individual communities in over time. For example, in 1998 the average level of the assessments. Also, drought conditions do not always the Piura river was 721 percent above normal (CAF develop uniformly throughout the Piura River basin, 2000). During El Niño conditions that developed in as was the case in 1960s, where lower and upper Piura December 1997 and March 1998, the river carried was simultaneously affected. The selectivity of human the greatest amount of water. The water flow peaked memory also has to be accounted for, although it can at 4,424 m3/s on March 12, which represents the date be expected that significant events that directly impact when Chato Grande was flooded. on livelihoods within the communities will be recalled fairly accurately. The flooding reported in Chato Grande in 2002 was triggered by two intense rainfall periods in the The exposure to climatic hazards differs between the upper Piura River basin. The first rainfall period lower, middle, and higher parts of the river basin. On occurred April 1­4, and the second April 6­7, while the coast, air temperature increases in the months no intense precipitation occurred in the lower river preceding the heavy rains during 1997 further affected basin at the same time. The water discharge from the flowering and fruit production of crops. In the highlands into the Piura river resulted in maximum highlands (sierras), the relative humidity increases. water-flow volumes of 3,750 m3/s (Angulo, personal Cabuyal is located in the central sierra of Piura, where communication). Consequently, Chato Grande and the lower height of the Andes allows for moisture other communities were flooded when the crops were transport from the Amazon region. In general, the in full growth. rainy season lasts for six months, with approximately 80 percent of the rainfall occurring from December Concerning the reporting of drought periods, it is to April. During El Niño years, regular moisture and important to stress that lower (bajo) Piura is generally rainfall conditions tend to intensify, but significant characterized by low rainfall. According to the climate rainfall episodes are also possible in normal years, such profile for the Piura River developed by SENAMHI, as 2001 (Angulo, personal communication). the rainfall for the Sechura coast averages 65 mm during a normal rain period (Angulo, personal. communication). The water input is therefore minimal Puno considering the high rates of evaporation. It is only The communities assessed in the department of Puno during the strong El Niño events that the coastal areas in the Peruvian altiplano all express concerns for a receive significant amounts of rainfall; e.g., 400 mm Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru broad array of climatic hazards. Floods, droughts, frost, assessment. Most severely affected is the community hail, and snow are all highlighted as concerns in all of of Santa Maria. In contrast to this general picture, the the communities (Table 9). The relative importance community of Alto Aychuyo ranked droughts lower, of the hazard varies by community, which may reflect and community members were more concerned with the different proximities to Lake Titicaca, as well as events associated with cold temperatures, such as hail, other topographic characteristics that influence the snow, and frost. This likely reflects the higher elevation microclimate. The data is drawn from the community of the community and its greater distance from Lake assessment report provided by Valdivia and Quiroz Titicaca. (2006) for this study. Frost is the other hazard ranked highly by several In each community, the participants were asked to communities. According to the votes of the indicate the degree of impact associated with each participants, the impacts are also widespread among hazard. Impacts could be classified into severe, medium, the households, affecting 74 percent of the participants or little/none. While these are subjective rankings, they severely and another 21 percent moderately. give a crude insight into whether these events tend to Yanamocco, Cari Cari, and Ancacca considered frosts affect entire communities or individual households. as their key vulnerability, ranking it higher than all the A severe impact is generally associated with entire loss other hazards. of the harvest, severe impacts on assets, or impact on human health. It represents a disaster on the household Floods and hail display diverse rankings when level. A medium impact indicates a considerable impact compared across communities and snow events, with on the asset base, which translates into hardship for the the exception of Alto Aychuyo, usually ranked lowest household. among the five climatic hazards identified in all the communities (Table 9). The impact of hail and floods Drought is generally considered a key vulnerability is less uniform across the communities, affecting on by the communities. Being ranked once as the worst average around 61 percent of the participants (Valdivia hazard and four times the second-worst hazard the and Quiroz 2006). Both hazards, however, show a communities are exposed to (Table 9), the impacts broad range of the vulnerability from community to tend to be widespread within the community, affecting community. on average 74 percent (n=265) of the households severely and having a medium degree of impact on While in Aychuyo 94 percent of the participants another 20 percent of the participants voting in the indicated that they are severely affected by hail, only Table 9. Qualitative Ranking of Natural Hazards by Communities in Puno Community Ranking Candile Yanamocco Cari Cari Alto Aychuyo Santa María Ancacca 1 Floods Frost Frost Hail Drought Frost 2 Drought Drought Drought Snow Floods Drought 3 Frost Flood Hail Frost Hail Floods 4 Hail Hail Flood Drought Frost Hail 5 Snow Snow Snow Flood Snow Snow 6 Wind Wind Source: Participatory workshops with community members. CIRNMA-CIP. July 2005. 0 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives 47 percent of participants in the assessment of Cari table. While displaying similar characteristics in terms Cari indicated that they are severely impacted. Candile, of overlapping spatial exposure to climatic hazards, which is at a lower elevation and in the vicinity of the impacts on livelihoods are different. Santa Maria Lake Titicaca, is most concerned about floods (with places a greater emphasis on crops, while Yanamocco 86 percent being severely affected); hail events are less concentrates on dairy cattle production. of a nuisance (62 percent severely affected) than in communities located at higher elevations, such as Alto Cari Cari and Ancacca place different emphases Aychuyo. Alto Aychuyo and Ancacca also highlighted on livestock and crops, which may be related in as a concern their exposure to strong winds. part to different spatial exposure to hazard risk. In comparison, Ancacca has more areas of overlapping events. In addition, most of the land is located in Spatial Disaster Risk the pampas (flatland). The community focuses on All the communities highlighted their exposure livestock production, as agricultural activities are very to multiple climatic hazards. In order to further risky. While Cari Cari also has pampas, the areas with understand to what extent the spatial exposure to overlapping hazard risks are smaller. The community these hazards overlaps, CIRNMA has a greater proportion of land under cultivation, asked communities to describe the while also possessing pastures to support livestock. approximate area that was severely Figure 8. Spatial Exposure to Hydrometeorological Hazards of the affected by the individual hazards. Community of Santa Maria Focus groups focused on specific hazard events and described the spatial extent of the impact in relationship to major landmarks. A Global Positioning System (GPS) was then used to develop spatial risk maps for each community. Figure 8 shows an example of a spatial risk map for the community of Santa Maria. The maps for the individual communities can be viewed in detail in Appendix A. Santa Maria and Yanamocco (Appendix) show that basically the entire region of the communities is exposed to hail events. This is also the case for drought, frost, and snow. Floods are more spatially confined. In Santa Maria, floods result from river overflow, while in Yanamocco it is the combination of river floods and a high water Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru While being exposed to the same hazard types, the are exposed to floods due to its flat topography and spatial exposure differs considerably between the proximity to Lake Titicaca. communities of Aychuyo and Candile. Aychuyo, which is located near the border with Bolivia at a higher elevation and at a greater distance from Lake Titicaca, is Temporal Exposure to Climatic Risks highly exposed to hail. Flood areas are confined to the In each community assessment in the altiplano, vicinity of the river. By contrast, large areas of Candile time lines of major climate-related disasters were Figure 9. Time Line of Major Natural Hazard Events Recalled by the Communities -- A TIME LINE OF AYCHUYO 8 F 1 13 13 13 13 30 19 0 0 D Fr Fr Fr Fr S Fr D H 1940 ... 1950 51 52 53 54 1955 56 57 58 59 1960 61 62 63 64 1965 66 67 68 69 1970 71 72 73 74 1975 76 77 78 79 1980 TIME LINE OF ANCCACA 1 F 2 10 1 0 6 5 10 10 D S H D Fr F D D 1940 ... 1950 51 52 53 54 1955 56 57 58 59 1960 61 62 63 64 1965 66 67 68 69 1970 71 72 73 74 1975 76 77 78 79 1980 TIME LINE OF CANDILE 2 F 2 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 20 D D Fr H N D D R Fr H H F H 1930/ 1940 ... 1950 51 52 53 54 1955 56 57 58 59 1960 61 62 63 64 1965 66 67 68 69 1970 71 72 73 74 1975 76 77 78 79 1980 TIME LINE OF CARI CARI 3 D 0 5 7 1 1 7 3 0 D H N D S Fr Fr D F 1945 1947 ... 1950 51 52 53 54 1955 56 57 58 59 1960 61 62 63 64 1965 66 67 68 69 1970 71 72 73 74 1975 76 77 78 79 1980 TIME LINE OF SANTA MARIA 2 Fr 1 1 5 5 1 7 11 2 3 H D N N D F H H Fr 1923 1942 ... 1950 51 52 53 54 1955 56 57 58 59 1960 61 62 63 64 1965 66 67 68 69 1970 71 72 73 74 1975 76 77 78 79 1980 TIME LINE OF YANAMOCCO 1 2 2 19 19 19 0 10 10 D D D H H H F S S 1945 1950 51 52 53 54 1955 56 57 58 59 1960 61 62 63 64 1965 66 67 68 69 1970 71 72 73 74 1975 76 77 78 79 1980 Note: Time line of major natural hazard events recalled by the communities through 1980, including droughts (D), floods (F), frosts (Fr), hail (H), snow (S), and wind (W). El Niño years, as classified by SENAMHI, are represented by the orange bars. Communities may experience a range of hazards in a given year. A lack of synchronicity in the occurrence of hazards between the communities is apparent, suggesting that disasters are fairly localized. Source: Community assessments in Puno. Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives Figure 9. Time Line of Major Natural Hazard Events Recalled by the Communities -- B (continued) TIME LINE OF AYCHUYO 10 2 18 14 8 N H Fr W Fr 10 11 18 0 18 0 2 0 2 D D W F H F H R H 81 82 83 84 1985 86 87 88 89 1990 91 92 93 94 1995 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 2005 TIME LINE OF ANCCACA 23 5 V H 7 9 23 14 12 Fr H F Fr Fr 10 10 1 5 18 2 6 0 9 2 2 D D F H N H N W H H D 81 82 83 84 1985 86 87 88 89 1990 91 92 93 94 1995 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 2005 TIME LINE OF CANDILE 13 15 3 0 S D F R 6 5 19 2 4 20 2 15 1 2 8 8 D Fr F D D S Fr D Fr Fr H Fr 81 82 83 84 1985 86 87 88 89 1990 91 92 93 94 1995 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 2005 TIME LINE OF CARI CARI 16 3 S S 13 3 0 5 12 2 2 16 1 3 9 2 D F N F F F F H F Fr Fr H 81 82 83 84 1985 86 87 88 89 1990 91 92 93 94 1995 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 2005 TIME LINE OF SANTA MARIA 19 8 F D 18 37 8 2 6 4 0 30 19 0 0 Fr Fr F H D H H N F H H 81 82 83 84 1985 86 87 88 89 1990 91 92 93 94 1995 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 2005 TIME LINE OF YANAMOCCO 14 8 N Fr 12 12 19 19 2 2 5 5 6 6 1 2 D D F F Fr Fr D D S S S H 81 82 83 84 1985 86 87 88 89 1990 91 92 93 94 1995 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 2005 Note: Time line of major natural hazard events recalled by the communities from 1981­2006, including droughts (D), floods (F), frosts (Fr), hail (H), snow (S), and wind (W). El Niño years, as classified by SENAMHI, are represented by the orange bars. Communities may experience a range of hazards in a given year. A lack of synchronicity in the occurrence of hazards between the communities is apparent, suggesting that disasters are fairly localized. Source: Community assessments in Puno. Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru reconstructed (Figure 9). While only featuring events Cold spells that occurred since 1990 are documented that severely impacted the community, these time lines in EM-DAT for 1991, 2003, and 2004. Only 2004 illustrate that the households often face several climatic is featured in the recollection of the communities extremes within a year or consecutive years. of Candile and Anccaca. It is interesting that the recollection of frost-related disasters is more noteworthy The recollections by the communities in Puno show an for events that occurred in the 1960s and 1970s absence of synchronicity between most types of disaster than in recent periods. This may reflect a decreased events. While drought impacts are more widespread vulnerability or a lower frequency of events in recent and uniform, the impacts of the other hazards are more years. In the ranking of hazards, however, frost events localized. This applies in particular to hail events. As are featured as major concerns to the communities. The a result, it is difficult to ascertain whether the hazard impact of cold temperatures on children's health and really occurred at this point in time or not, as the inadequate housing also contradicts this impression. disaster reports tend to provide spatially aggregated impacts. Overall, the recollection of disaster events show that all hazard types have translated into disasters at the Looking at the OFDA/CRED Emergency Disasters community level over time, illustrating a general Database (EM-DAT), for example, various droughts adaptation deficit to the prevalent climatic conditions. are listed as disasters in Puno. This includes the drought This reflects the general picture of a high range of of 1982­83, which was listed by five communities. climate-related disasters reported for Puno (Table 2). It was associated with a strong El Niño at the time, which caused drier conditions than usual in the entire altiplano region. Interestingly, the strong El Niño of Impacts 1997­98 did not have the same effect. The database After the identification and ranking of the also lists the drought of 1966, which is a year apart hydrometeorological risks, the altiplano communities, from drought conditions reported from Anccaca. in focus groups, identified the type of impacts With the absence of local climate data, however, associated with flood, drought, hail, and frost events in it is not possible to say whether the recollection of the past (Tables 10 and 11). the community is off by one year, the reporting is inaccurate, or these are two different events taking place The recollection of the communities shows a pervasive in Puno. It should be kept in mind that communities' impact on conditions essential to reducing poverty responses refer to agricultural droughts, which are across disaster types. These include immediate impacts visible in yield reductions rather than meteorological on human health and household assets, as well as drought conditions. impacts on the long-term prospects of advancement of households through loss of schooling time. EM-DAT also includes reports of floods in 1984 and 1994 that closely coincide with flood-related disasters As illustrated by the broad scope of impacts, the reported by the communities of Santa Maria (1984), communities are currently equipped to cope with Candile (1986), Aychuyo (1986), and Cari Cari and adapt to the range of climate conditions they (1986, 1995). The flood of 1986 also matches the are exposed to. Housing structures are, for example, record-high stand of Lake Titicaca (Seimon, personal inadequate for the risk profile of the region, not communication). providing enough insulation against cold conditions and being impacted by flood and hail. 4 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives The limited adaptive capacity also becomes apparent in coping strategies that alleviate the immediate impact of the frequently highlighted livestock sales during times the disaster event but deplete their asset base, and hence of disasters. Community members resort to short-term make them more vulnerable in the long run. Table 10. Livelihood Impacts of Drought and Floods, Communities of Puno Impacts Sector Drought (community) Flood (community) Health - Malnutrition (all) - Diseases, mainly stomachal and respitatory (all) - Diseases: cough, fever, stomach, and skin - Malnutrition, especially children and elderly (Cd, irritations (all) Ym, CC) - Increased child mortality (all) - Increased child mortality (Ym) - Measles epidemic (SM, Acc) - Skin problems and bone aches (Cd, Ay, Acc) Education - Somnolence, lack of concentration (Cd, CC) - School desertion (all) - School desertion for work & lack of resources - School closure (Ay, SM, Acc) (all) - Low educational achievement (Cd, CC) - Increase in the time required to reach school (Cd, Ym) Housing & - House ceiling dries up (all) - Destruction of houses (all) Infrastructure - Shortage of totora for roof rebuilding (all) - Road destruction (all, except SM) - Drying of wells (Cd) - Destruction of wells (all, except Ay and SM) - Migration (Cd, CC) - Destruction of bridge (CC, Ay, SM) - Latrine destruction (Cd, Ym) - Destruction of community site (Cd) - Destruction of church (Cd) Agriculture & - Loss of all crops (all) - Loss of crops (all; with exception of Ay, the Livestock - Pest outbreaks (all) communities indicate that the entire harvests - Migration of young people and adults looking for were lost) work (all) - Increase of weeds - Food shortage (all) - Lack of animal fodder (all) - Increased livestock mortality (all) - Shortage of fodder (all) - Weight loss (all) - Increased livestock mortality (all) - Increase in livestock diseases, especially pneu- - Weight loss in livestock (all) monia and diarrhea (all) - Increase in skin parasites (all) - Hoof softening (all, except YM) - Price reduction for livestock sales (all) - Low livestock prices, difficult to sell (Ym, CC) Handicrafts - Shortage of wool (Cd, CC, Ay, Acc) - Loss of handicrafts (Cd) - Lack of resources to purchase wool (Cd) - Loss/shortage of raw material (all, except YM) - Increased preparation of handicrafts (Ym, SM) - Reduction of wool quality - Low price for handicrafts (Ym) - Handworks were not carried out (Ay, Acc) Note: Communities: Acc = Anccaca, Ay = (Alto) Aychuyo, CC = Cari Cari, Cd = Candile, Ym = Yanamocco, SM = Santa Maria. Source: Authors'data, summary of community assessments. Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru Table 11. Livelihood Impacts of Hail and Frost, Communities of Puno Impacts Sector Hail (community) Frost (community) Health - Disease: Respiratory, colds (all) - Disease: Respiratory, colds (all) - Increased child and elderly mortality (Ym, Ay) - Increased mortality of children (all) and elderly (Cd) Education - Absence from school classes (all) - Absence from school or delay of classes (all) - Repetition of school year (all, except: Ym, CC) - School desertion & migration (all except Cd) - School desertion due to migration (Ay, SM) Housing & - Damage of house ceiling (all) - Low temperatures inside the houses (all) Infrastructure - Damage to school (Cd) - Damage to the house ceiling (Ym, CC) - Damage to wells (all) - Frozen wells (all) - Very low temperatures in school buildings (all) Agriculture & - Damage to crops (all) - Loss of all the crops (all) Livestock - Increase in plant diseases and pests - Shortage of food (all) - Shortage of food - Shortage of seeds for the next planting cycle (all) - Shortage of seed - Migration (all) - Increased livestock mortality (all) - Increase in pests (CC, Acc) - Weight loss of livestock - Freezing of grass, shortage of pasture (all) - Increase in livestock diseases and ailments (all) - Increase in livestock mortality (all) - Low milk production (Ay) - Weight loss of livestock (all) - Forced sale of livestock (all) - Increase in parasites and animal diseases (Ay, SM, - Livestock theft Acc) - Low milk production (all) - Forced livestock sale at low price (all) Handicrafts - Low wool production (all except Ym, SM) - Poor quality of wool (CC, Ay) - Greater production of woven fabrics (Ym) - Shortage of wool (Acc, Ay) - Greater production of wool fabrics (Ym, Ay, SM) - Smaller production (CC, Acc) - No handicraft production (Cd) Note: Communities: Acc = Anccaca, Ay = (Alto) Aychuyo, CC = Cari Cari, Cd = Candile, Ym = Yanamocco, SM = Santa Maria. Source: Authors'data, summary of community assessments. Comparison of Risk Exposure of Communities northwestern Peru. Another difference is that climatic in Piura and Puno changes associated with El Niño may not be entirely negative. Depending on the strength of the event, the Comparing the responses from the community increase in precipitation and the associated positive assessments in Piura and Puno, it is apparent that the effects on ecosystem productivity can offset negative altiplano communities face the challenge of building impacts and actually help households to develop their adaptive capacity to a broad spectrum of climatic asset base. hazards with very different characteristics. In Puno, communities have dealt with high daily fluctuations in The broad range of impacts highlighted by daily temperatures and exposure to extreme events, such communities in Piura and Puno showcase a general as hail, cold spells, droughts, and flooding. Often, these awareness within the communities of their exposure climatic extremes overlap in space and time. and vulnerability, as well as a limited capacity to do something about it. By contrast, the communities assessed in Piura face climatic extremes that are associated with either too wet or too dry conditions, representing a bimodal risk Vulnerability exposure. Furthermore, the risk exposure is more clearly Within the context of this report, vulnerability is linked to El Niño and La Niña conditions than in the understood as the characteristics of the communities altiplano, making the challenges more predicable in Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives that influence their ability to anticipate, cope, and area of land is lost, there is very little opportunity for adapt to climate-related hazards. Both socioeconomic this group to recover from the shock, as farm laborers and environmental factors influence conditions of tend to loose their jobs in the times of crisis. vulnerability. Vulnerability is therefore a dynamic concept, driven by various causal agents and processes In addition to the size of the land, the community of (Vogel and O'Brien 2004). Changes in the local Cabuyal in the sierras of Piura and the communities of environment, market conditions, or climate change the Peruvian altiplano noted that the vulnerability is can increase or decrease the degree of vulnerability influenced by the ability to plant at different altitudes. by affecting the exposure to a given hazard as well as the ability to cope or adapt to it. The sections below The possession of livestock is another factor that describe the feedback from the communities concerning influences the vulnerability within the community. In their perceptions of which activities, livelihood aspects, general, the communities possess only limited monetary and environmental factors affect their vulnerability to assets, livestock constitutes their "checking and savings the climatic hazards experienced in Piura and Puno. account" (R. Quiroz, personal communication; Valdivia 2001). It also represents an insurance against climatic shocks, enabling households to ensure food security, Socioeconomic Vulnerability acquire seeds, and building material. In the assessment, The communities deemed those groups most vulnerable groups that possess only small numbers of livestock who had the least assets to absorb climatic shocks and were considered more vulnerable. limited capacity to spread risks and adjust their income In Piura, resource-poor families raise domestic fowl, sources to changing environmental conditions. pigs, sheep, and goats, but do not possess cattle. It was In general, the communities assessed in Piura and Puno pointed out that households owning larger numbers considered livelihoods based solely on agricultural of livestock may lose a greater number of animals in practices most at risk. The communities differentiate a flood, but poorer households are in danger of losing groups that are less or more vulnerable according to the their entire livestock. Thereby their asset base for amount and quality of land and livestock they own. The paying for the education of their children and recover area and location of land allows households to decrease from future shocks is depleted medium- to long-term, the likelihood of catastrophic losses, while the type and reinforcing conditions of poverty. number of livestock represents an important additional Another aspect of vulnerability raised in the community income source as well as an asset, which allows assessments was the ability of household to adjust their households to cope better with a climatic extreme. livelihoods to the prevalent environmental conditions. For example, in the community of Chato Grande in For example, in Parachique community representatives Piura, the most vulnerable group is families of young considered households that only live from the dry forest farmers who possess little or no land and predominantly most vulnerable. For these households, food security depend on work as farm laborers. According to the and income depends on the ability to grow crops for participants in the assessment, this holds true for flour and cereals from sparse rainfall during the rainy approximately 20 percent of the population. Also season. highly vulnerable are large families (eight to nine Families in Parachique, which use the marine resources children) that own only small patches of land (1/2 during the normal and La Niña years and incorporate ha or even less). This group is also dependent on farming activities in their activities during El Niño complementary income as farm laborers. If their small years, are considered generally less vulnerable. Among Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru the fishermen, however, different levels of vulnerability and the increase of erosion due to clearance of forest were identified. The most vulnerable groups are the cover. While the community recognizes deforestation Pinteros, who possess only small boats and fish on a as a short-term solution, it also feels there are few small scale using hooks and lines. Their catch is sold for alternatives when fertile soil is lost due to intense local consumption. In Parachique, Pinteros are either precipitation or strong winds. young men who are just beginning to learn to fish or immigrants. In the altiplano, overgrazing of land resources is a recognized problem, but during the workshop in Lima, For communities in Piura, which are located inland, the community members expressed particular concern ability to combine income activities from agricultural over changing climatic conditions and dwindling water and fishing activities is not an option. Therefore, the supplies, which further increases the uncertainty and communities define vulnerability largely according vulnerability of their agricultural practices. This will be to land access, size, and quality and the possession of discussed in further detail in the section on perceived livestock. Alternative income sources are comprised of changes in climatic conditions. labor in nearby cities. Income can also be replenished during rainy years by expanding agricultural productivity to the occasional fields. Long-term Consequences of Vulnerability A shared concern of the communities in Piura and In the altiplano, the communities highlighted Puno is the vulnerability of the children and youth handicrafts and informal trade as alternative income to climatic risks. In the altiplano, malnutrition and sources. Tables 10 and 11, however, show that in increased child mortality are highlighted by community some communities these alternative income sources members for multiple climatic hazards. Aside from are impacted adversely at the same time as the main the concern for the health of the children, it is also the livelihood activities and hence play only a limited role long-term consequences resulting from the climatic in reducing the impact of climatic shocks on the assets hazards that are emphasized. Reduced schooling time of a household. has been cited both on Piura and the altiplano. There is the strong perception that this limits the opportunities Environmental Vulnerability of the children for the future. For example, in the community assessments it was stressed that with their In Piura and the altiplano, the compounding effect education, community children cannot compete with of environmental degradation and change with the children from larger cities, and therefore the existing, vulnerability to climatic shocks was recognized. risk-exposed livelihoods represent their only option. In Parachique, community members highlighted inadequate health and hygiene conditions and the Key Aspects of Vulnerability pollution of the ocean as major problems, as it has reduced fish stocks and also limited their ability to sell The community assessments reveal a keen awareness fishing products on the market. These environmental among the participants about which factors contribute conditions therefore compound the adverse impacts of to the vulnerability to environmental risks (Table El Niño events on the fishing sector and constrain the 12). There is also the recognition, however, that some ability of the community to acquire monetary assets. In of these conditions of vulnerability are beyond their alto Piura, the community of Cabuyal recognized the control. conflict between land demand for agricultural activities 8 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives Table 12. Conditions of Vulnerability Highlighted by Communities Piura Puno Livestock: number and quality Livestock: number and quality Land: ownership, access, size, quality, location Land:ownership,access,size,quality,andlocation;i.e.,ability to plant at different altitudes Access to alternative income sources: Access to alternative incomes sources: handicrafts, informal fishing (coast), handicrafts, trade trade, fishing Environmental degradation: pollution (coast), deforestation, Environmental degradation: overgrazing, erosion erosion Environmental change:Climate, Water Source: Authors'data. While land ownership, and the quality and size of land in addition of the demand for fuelwood, promotes are recognized influences on a household's resiliency deforestation activities, which then in turn further to climatic shocks, land-poor households have very exacerbates erosion processes and the capacity of the little options to change this condition. Even in Chato land to retain water. In addition, the downstream Grande, the access to irrigation is only of limited transport of sediment raises the riverbed and increases benefit to land-poor households. Water rationing the flood risk in lower Piura. constrains the productivity of the already limited land resources, while at the same time the demand for farm Conditions of vulnerability and resulting choices in labor also decreases. Hence, the self-sustaining capacity land-use and resource-use management can impact of the households is further constrained. other locations as well. As highlighted above, the excessive use of natural resources in the Noma Given that dry conditions in Piura are largely linked microbasin is compounding water-shortage and to La Niña conditions, which often precede or follow flooding problems downstream. While in Piura wet El Niño years, these households are exposed to (Catacos and Sechura), the construction of dams prolonged periods of stress, which make it difficult has further increased the silting of riverbeds, they to maintain or build assets necessary for education or often collapse during intense rainy seasons and hence investments. do not reduce the flooding risk (Angulo, personal communication). Therefore, the vulnerability of one In the altiplano, the frequent exposure to a variety of location not only influences the choices of households climatic extremes means that households that own little by favoring short-term over long-term solutions, land and livestock are in constant danger of losing their these choices can also affect the risk exposure of other entire basis for livelihoods. Once all livestock is lost, communities, which are connected through their it is difficult to acquire new animals without access to mutual location along a river's course. credit, leaving the household more vulnerable to further climatic risks. Coping and Adaptation Strategies The interaction between environmental degradation and vulnerability to climatic hazards also illustrates Socioeconomic conditions of vulnerability as well as the limited ability households have in reducing their driver effects of environmental degradation are the long-term vulnerability. In bajo Piura, as illustrated outcomes of the coping and adaptation capacity of by the community assessment of Cabuyal, intense households and communities. The range of options precipitation leads to the erosion of topsoil. This, available to anticipate risks, take risk-mitigating measures, and reduce the impact of a given extreme Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru event will influence the asset base and opportunities for shocks are often also malnourished, resulting in low advancement of households (Valdivia et al. 2003). prices. It therefore reduces the immediate impact of the climatic shock but also depletes the asset base of the In addressing climate risks, one can distinguish between household. coping measures, which are focused at mediating the specific impact of a hazard that has occurred, Where families are forced to sell their entire livestock, and adaptation strategies, which are focused on this solely represents a short-term remedy, which likely systematically reducing underlying vulnerabilities to increases vulnerability in the medium to long term to hazards with the goal of avoiding disastrous impacts. subsequent climate risks, as the household becomes more dependent on more climate-sensitive agricultural Coping Strategies activities (if it cannot replenish its assets by acquiring livestock or diversifying income sources). While the disaster risk profile in Northwestern Peru and the altiplano differ in many ways, coping mechanisms Migration. When harvests are destroyed and the highlighted in both areas during the community household has no ability to liquefy assets to recover, assessments show considerable commonalities. In both migration of household members often represents the regions selling livestock and other assets and migration only option to support the family. Migration is not represent pervasive coping mechanisms to dampen the really a choice, but an option of last resort. In Piura magnitude of a disaster event at the household level. and Puno, the communities highlighted the disruption of the social networks and family structures as well as Selling of Livestock. In the face of climatic shocks, the impact on the educational opportunities of the a common coping strategy is to sell livestock to children. obtain essential food supplies and recover seeds for the next planting season and construction material. When households lack alternatives, household members The possession of livestock represents, therefore, or entire families migrate in search for jobs to industrial an insurance to households, when harvests fail and centers at the coast or the Amazonian lowlands. Table investments are required for recovery. As a coping 13 summarizes the migration destinations of members strategy, the selling of livestock is associated with several from the communities assessed in Piura and Puno, caveats. showing that the destination also sometimes depends on the type of hazard. Droughts and floods have The assets of farmers in the communities largely consist different impact durations and hence pose different of the livestock they own. Monetary income tends requirements for alternative income sources. to be spent immediately on food and education. If there is a surplus, this will be used to improve housing The lack of education and marketable skills forces the conditions, obtain livestock, or diversify activities. farmers to take low-wage jobs in unfavorable working conditions, but this remains the only option to The sale of livestock in response to a hazard event is compensate for losses and ensure the food security. a strategy shared throughout the communities. The communities of the altiplano note that the various Migration is unwanted and does not really represent climatic hazards are all associated with a drop in the a choice, but rather a lack of alternative income sales price. Because many community representatives opportunities. Communities highlighted the adverse employ this coping strategy at the same time, there is effects on family structure, social networks, and local a high supply of animals, which in times of climate knowledge. 40 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives Table 13. Destinations of Push Migration, Piura Communties Community Main Destinations Parachique Flood: Following the 1982­83 floods, part of the community relocated to Ciudad del Pe- scador, a settlement nearby Chato Grande Drought: Tumbes, Sullana, Chepen, Huaraz, Lima Flood (more temporary): Lambayeque, Chiclayo, Chimbote, Lima Locuto Drought (men in search of farm labor): Bajo (lower) Piura, Chiclayo; (women working as maids): Tambogrande, Piura (city) Cabuyal Drought: Towns in the Peruvian Amazon, e.g., Jaen, Nuevo Cajamarca, San Ignacio, Saramerisa, Pueblo Nuevo de Maray Source: Authors'data. Adaptation Practices by the disaster event due to a drop in sales price or limited supply of raw material, such as wool. Only two Adaptive measures taken by humans to address climate communities, Yanamocco and Santa Maria, did not risks can be anticipatory and reactive. In general, indicate an impact on handicrafts dependent on wool adaptation leads to a reduction of vulnerabilities. supply. Yanamocco residents highlighted increased Ideally, adaptive measures should prevent climate production during these events. This may suggest that hazards from turning into disasters and enable in Yanamocco (and Santa Maria) there is some foresight stakeholders to maintain and develop their asset base. planning, ensuring sufficient supply of raw material. In contrast to coping measures, adaptation in the By contrast, the other communities face dwindling context of this paper should be considered as a planned supplies in the aftermath of the events when there response that is informed by early warning of extreme would be a need to compensate for losses in livestock events, traditional knowledge and practices, and/or and agricultural productivity. intrinsic understanding and evaluation risk factors and remedial options, which are also influenced by available Livestock Management. Livestock has been already assets. In contrast to coping measures that mitigate the been highlighted as an important coping strategy. The near-term impact of a given hazard event, adaptation possession of livestock becomes an adaptation strategy measures should ideally lead to sustained vulnerability when it allows the household to minimize the impact reduction of the household and community. of climate risks to maintain and expand its asset base. The household may sell some of its livestock in times Diversification of Income Activities. This is crucial of disaster, but possess enough animals to subsequently in reducing vulnerabilities to climatic risks. When increase its livestock size. discussing aspects of vulnerability, it was, for example, noted that coastal communities such as Parachique In Piura, community members pointed out that less- households that combine fishing and agricultural vulnerable households succeed in maintaining a core activities tend to be less vulnerable than the ones who livestock throughout flooding events in El Niño years only focus on agriculture (impacted by droughts and and are then able to increase livestock numbers when floods, benefiting from extra moisture input during El the positive effects of increased pasture size materialize Niño) or artisan fisheries (impacted by El Niño). in the wake of the additional moisture input. As a consequence, El Niño turns into a benefit, allowing In the altiplano, communities supplement their these households to increase their livestock numbers income through handicrafts and weaving. When and hence their assets for investments in housing, highlighting impacts, however, in the majority of the education, or health care. communities these activities were often also affected Climate Change Series 4 Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru Households that can maintain livestock throughout on making an immediate profit from the improved extreme climatic events are able to sell animals in an productivity. More affluent households can afford to anticyclical manner, at times when there is greater wait, processing agricultural products and then selling demand and hence better prices. Livestock products them at higher returns later. such as milk and cheese further supplement diet and income during this time. In the altiplano (as well as Cabuyal), farmers focus on spreading risks by planting at different altitudes The challenge for households lies in maintaining a and using a variety of crops. This option is, however, critical number of livestock throughout the occurrence only available to the more affluent groups in the of climatic hazards. In Piura, this means ensuring communities. livestock health through flood and drought conditions, while in Puno livestock needs to be protected against Traditional Adaptation Measures. The assessment floods, drought, frosts, and hail and associated in Piura did not reveal the use of traditional water- implications for food security. In the altiplano, the harvesting structures or cropping systems to address number of livestock per household roughly increased existing environmental risks. This stands in contrast to with altitude and distance to water bodies such as Lake reports from coastal communities in Ecuador (Marcos, Titicaca, which buffers against climatic fluctuations and personal communication), which face a similar risk offers some protection from cold spells for agricultural exposure (see appendix F for further information on productivity. Ecuador). In coastal Ecuador, communities still use albarradas, ancient structures that collect excess water In the altiplano, the communities also recognize during El Niño years. Being built as u-shaped dams on the importance of protecting the livestock against semipermeable soil, the water percolates, recharging not only extreme events, but also high diurnal the aquifer. This allows for better water supply during temperature variations. As will be discussed in the dry conditions, turning aspects of El Niño into an recommendations, research has shown that gains of advantage. livestock productivity and, hence, the ability to increase income, are substantial when using shelters and in The absence of such structures in the communities in combination with improved animal feed. Despite Piura may in part be explained by the history of the this recognition, feedback from community members region. Large-scale farming predominated until, during suggests that investments in the construction of shelters a land revolution, the land was divided and distributed is too costly without access to affordable credit. to laborers. The previous large-scale production for export may not have favored the existence of these Expansion of Agricultural Activities. In Piura, structures and hence led to their destruction. Another communities utilize the added ecosystem productivity possibility is that the drier climatic conditions did during El Niño years, expanding planting areas and not favor these water-harvesting structures as much as exploiting products of the revitalized dry forest. In in coastal Ecuador. It may be worthwhile to explore the assessments, the different options available to whether the traditional water-harvesting techniques households depending on their affluence (access could also be of relevance to managing agricultural to seeds, fertilizer, land, number of livestock) was production risk in Piura. highlighted. In the communities of Candile and Yanamocco, According to responses from community "raised fields," also called waru warus, are still in use. representatives, resource-poor households will focus Waru warus consist of mounds of fertile soil, which 4 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives are intersected by small water channels. The resulting to El Niño­related flooding, storm surges, and structure creates a microclimate that provides moisture earthquakes. Following the destructive impacts of the and also buffers against temperature fluctuations. 1982­83 El Niño, the settlement Ciudad del Pescador Raised fields are also found in areas of northwestern was created on an elevation nearby and the population Peru (although they have not been documented in the was urged to permanently relocate. community assessments in Piura; Quiroz, personal communication), but more elaborate and permanent The majority of the population, however, returned structures are characteristic of the altiplano highlands. to Parachique. Reasons highlighted in discussions Other structures aimed at adapting to prevailing with community representatives included the fear climatic conditions include sunken fields (coastal dry that boats and fishing equipment would be stolen. areas) and conchas (highlands). While Parachique residents own homes in Ciudad del Pescador, the majority does not live there permanently In the altiplano, traditional social networks also play now. an important role in mitigating the impact of climatic risks on households. The aynoka system represents a The risk classification has caused resentment toward traditional decision-making process, where community authorities, because it limits the use of public funds members decide what crops are planted and where, but for improving the infrastructure in the community farming activities are then carried out individually. This and hygiene standards in the bay. The resettlement allows for a collective assessment of risk and additional promoted by the authorities is not recognized by the guidance for planting decisions. It may also provide a community as an initiative for them, but as an action valuable entry point for external climate information. against them. In the community assessments, Santa Maria and Alto Aychuyo use the collective decision-making process In Chato Grande, houses were frequently destroyed associated with the aynoka system. during flooding events associated with the strong El Niño events during 1982­83 and 1997­98. With the In times of crisis, Anyi is used as a traditional encouragement of families relocated to a new settlement communal mechanism, where access to food and called Nuevo Chato Grande, institutions provided housing is provided in exchange for communal work. reservoirs for water supply and latrines in each house Community representatives in Yanamocco, for example, (ITDG 1998). It was highlighted, however, that many highlighted Anyi as a response mechanism to climatic community members use dual residencies as a strategy impacts. for adapting to the prevalent climatic conditions, rather than relocating permanently to the safer location of Nuevo Chato Grande. Others have chosen to remain External Assistance and Barriers in Chato Grande, despite being aware that this old The external support highlighted by the communities settlement is more risk-prone. Obstacles cited by the in Piura was predominantly focused on coping with community members to permanent relocation are the particular disasters. Exceptions are the communities of absence of electricity and development projects, as well Parachique and Chato Grande, where the hazard-risk as the greater distance to cropping and herding places. exposure and disaster events triggered efforts to relocate As in Parachique, living away from the livestock and the communities. workplaces increases the danger of losing assets through theft. The bay area, where Parachique lies, was classified as a high-risk area by Civil Defense due to its vulnerability In the altiplano, the communities highlighted a range of development activities that would also strengthen their Climate Change Series 4 Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru resilience to climatic shocks. This includes, for example, A shared concern emerging in the discussions with technical assistance in livestock management, animal communities in Piura and Puno is the lack of access husbandry, and handicrafts by the Corredor Economico to credit. In Parachique, the fishermen had access to a Puno-Cusco for the communities of Ancacca and development fund called Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Yanamocco. Caritas is supporting Yanamocco in Pesquero (National Fund for Fisheries Development), setting up cultivated pastures and, with the Ministry which helped them to finance improvements to boats of Agriculture, provides training in animal production and fishing equipment with low-interest loans. This and health. Caritas also works with the community fund is no longer available, leaving especially the most of Accopata in establishing animal forage (now in vulnerable group, the artisanal fishermen, without collaboration with the Municipality of Mañazo). viable financing options. In the altiplano, community CIRNMA works on credit and microfinance schemes members complained about the access to agricultural with the communities of Accopata and Yanamocco, and banks. In their absence, the microfinance initiatives also provides support in livestock management. Other piloted by organizations like CIRNMA can benefit organizations that have worked with the communities individual communities by providing important include PRONAMACHS (Alto Aychuyo, Santa Maria), insights into lending to households in high-risk PECSA (Accopata), INTERVIDA (Alto Achuyo) and environments, but they cannot provide widespread PRADERA (Alto Achuyo). relief to the region. The responses from the communities showcase the great variety of external support focused on External Information--Weather Forecasts, improving livestock health and productivity and Early Warning, and Seasonal Climate providing frameworks for communities to strengthen Outlooks their asset base. The responses, however, also Within the context of adaptation, timely release illustrate differences in the access of communities to of climate forecasts as well as warnings can help development organizations. The activities are usually communities minimize damages by allowing them very specific in their scope and not part of integrative to take risk-mitigating measures. The community framework; rather, they reflect the specialization of the assessments explored to what extent individual organizations. communities have access to information and whether When the community representatives were brought they trust and respond to available information. together to discuss the findings of the individual Both communities in Piura and Puno receive climate community assessments, it was the first time they had forecasts through the radio, which is the preferred met. The information exchange and hence the learning medium. Low levels of literacy and limited access to TV benefit from successful project activities is thus very make other media transmission channels less favorable. limited. El Niño forecasts are predominantly utilized in Concerning the support of government institutions, northwestern Peru. Whether adaptation measures are community members expressed their confusion undertaken, however, depends largely on the alignment about who to go to in times of crisis. The governance of the forecast with local environmental indicators, structure and support mechanisms appeared not to be such as excessive temperatures and relative humidity sufficiently clear. in the months preceding El Niño events. If there is a disagreement between the forecasts and local indicators, communities tend to follow the indicators. It is also 44 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives important who transmits the forecasts--government community to obtain public funds. As authorities are institutions are generally not well trusted, while certain perceived as not being on the side of the community, radio broadcasters have credibility with the community members of Parachique also question whether the (despite the fact that they basically use the same source weather and climate warnings are intended for their of information, e.g., SENAMHI in Peru). benefit. Another problem is the late release of El Niño forecasts In contrast, great trust is placed in the Parachique to public channels that reach the communities, a Harbormaster's office, which transmits information on delay largely attributable to political and economic ocean conditions and warnings of extreme weather via reasons. The public declaration of an El Niño event loudspeakers and radio. Experience has shown that this triggers emergency response programs, which are costly. information is reliable and is furthermore aided by the Therefore, there is a hesitation to release forecasts early. local presence of the office. In the case of conflicting messages from SENAMHI and the harbormaster's Access to and Use of Information in Piura office, the community tends to disregard information from SENAMHI, which in their perception is less While all of the communities have access to weather reliable and not in tune with the local environmental and climate information, the trust placed in external conditions. information sources is generally low (Table 14). Local sources receive more attention and are usually given Presenters on radio stations also receive more attention priority when responding to warnings. than government agencies, although these are the original source of information. The radio programs In all communities, the most important medium for present the message in a more accessible language to outside information is the radio (see Table 14 for the communities, in addition to being popular and not information on stations). TV and print media represent perceived as driven by ulterior motives. Abraham Levy additional sources, but are limited in their reach. The of Radio Programas del Peru was cited as an important access to written information in all communities is information source. constrained by low literacy. The highland community of Cabuyal also has no regular access to newspapers, which Concerning El Niño warnings, the community can only be obtained during visits to nearby towns. of Chato Grande displayed frustration with the uncertainty and late timing of the forecasts. In the discussions, it became apparent that the Community members highlighted the confirmation of communities do not differentiate between the accuracy an evolving El Niño in 1997 being postponed several of weather and climate forecasts. If the experience with times; they heard conflicting messages and when it was weather forecasts is not positive, this will also affect finally confirmed, the impacts were already visible. trust in longer-term climate warnings. In addition, the case of Chato Grande also illustrates Aside from the content, the messenger of weather the importance of a match between forecasts and and climate information is also important. Trust in local environmental signs. In 2002, the community government agencies is generally low. For example, received flood warnings from the authorities. Most of official warnings from SENAMHI and Civil Defense the community, however, did not believe the warnings, are questioned in the community of Parachique. Part because floods usually only occur when there is heavy of the reason is that Civil Defense classified the bay rain. This was not the case for the first time in the as a high-risk area, which makes it difficult for the experience of the communities in 2002, as the Piura Climate Change Series 4 Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru Table 14. Access to Weather and Climate Information Community Information Source Parachique Parachique Harbormaster Type: Ocean conditions, extreme weather alerts, short-term Trust level: High Broadcasting medium: Announcements through loudspeakers and radio access on boats Comment: Based on past experiences, the communities consider this information reliable. This is further aided by their local presence. They are likely to respond to this more than other outside alerts. As the harbormaster retransmits information received from the Callao Harbormaster's office via the Paita Harbormaster, there is sometimes a delay in the alert, which affects preparation time. SENAMHI Type: Weather and climate, including El Niño Trust level: Low Broadcasting medium: Radio, TV Comments: Skeptical about information because it has been wrong in the past. Civil Defense Type: Weather and hazard alerts Trust level: very low Broadcasting medium: Radio, TV Comment: Community does not trust Civil Defense, which classified the bay as a high-risk area, resulting in constraints in obtain- ing public investment. The prevailing sentiment is that the institution is not on the side of the community, which also affects the trust level in the potentially beneficial hazard alerts. Radio Programs: Radio Programas del Peru, Radio Cutivalu Type: Weather and climate forecasts, including El Niño Trust level: Low Comment: The medical facility transmits radio alerts through loudspeakers. This information was most noted by the women participating in the assessment. There is the perception that the information content is uncertain and the format is unclear, and there is confusion about the time horizon of the forecast. Chato Grande Radio Program: Radio Cutivalu Type: Weather and climate information, including El Niño Trust level: Low Comment: There is the perception that climate information is provided late. The participants pointed out that confirmation of the impending 1997­98 El Niño was consistently postponed, which created confusion. When it was finally confirmed, they were already experiencing its effects. This perception also carries over to weather alerts, where there is the feeling that the information is provided with shorter notice than necessary. Irrigation Committees, Civil Defense Type: Direct source of information on future climate conditions and practical implications for irrigation Note: The irrigation organizations control the crops that will be grown according to current and projected water availability. When there are water shortages, areas for rice cultivation will be restricted or prohibited. Growing of corn and other less water-intensive crops is promoted. When floods are likely to occur, the irrigation committee does not authorize planting in the floodplains. In con- junction with Civil Defense, information on climate conditions is provided from January to April. Civil Defense regional authorities also visit the community to warn of imminent floods that require evacuation. Comment: Warnings, such as to not plant in floodplain fields when there is the danger of floods, are often disregarded out of economic necessity or when they do not match local environmental signs (as was the case in the flood of 2002). Other: TheChatoGrandeDefenseCommitteereceiveswarningsanddisaster-preventionmaterialfromINDECI,theregionalgovernment, but the format is not easily accessible. Farmers with schoolchildren pointed out that information they received from the local school was useful, when teachers conducted flood drills with the children, which helped to create general awareness. Locuto Radio Programs: Radio Programmas del Peru, Radio Cutivalu Type: Weather and climate information, including El Niño and hazard alerts Trust level: medium Comment: While the community generally places little faith in the weather forecasts, they noted that they received information of the impending El Niño in July 1997 (with the rains beginning in January 1998). The broadcaster they identified specifically was Abraham Levy. It was also noted that Radio Cutivalu broadcasted a flood warning in the El Niño rainy season in 1998 about 12 hours before it occurred. Hence, the community has experienced the benefits of listening to the forecast. Cabuyal Radio Programs: Radio Programmas del Peru, Radio Cutivalu, Radio Ronderala Voz de las Alturas (local broadcast from Chalaco) Type: Weather and climate information Trust level: Low to medium Comment: Abraham Levy is noted as a forecaster of Radio Programmas del Peru. The information is considered easily acces- sible and helps people to stay alert, but it was noted that only a fraction of the community listens to it. Extreme weather warnings are, however, passed on from neighbor to neighbor when being received through the radio, as was the case when they received warning of El Niño, as well as alerts of heavy precipitation in 2001 through Radio Cutivalu. In general, it is more customary to base planting decisions on observations of environmental indicators, and all climate information is compared with local knowledge. Source: Authors'data, summary of community assessments. 4 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives river flood was solely triggered by heavy precipitation in of El Niño events. Yet the majority of the community the highlands. participants relate alerts of El Niño predominantly to the northern coast and not their own situation in the In the highlands, Cabuyal noted the positive experience altiplano. with earlier warnings of heavy rains in 2001, which proved to be accurate. In contrast with Chato Grande, Concerning climate forecasts for the altiplano region, the community also received El Niño warnings in June the communities were presented with forecasting 1997, well before the rains started in January 1998. formats from SENAMHI to determine whether they The community members, however, also noted that trust the information and consider it useful. The climate information generally plays a small role in their responses show that around 47 percent (Table 15) listen planting decision, as they tend to trust their reading of the local environmental conditions in judging the to the forecasts. Of this subgroup, 59 percent trusted quality of the planting season. the content of the information, and a slightly smaller percentage (54) said they would also act upon this information. Weather and Climate Information in Puno The assessments, however, also displayed a great Given the complex hazard risks communities face in the altiplano, it was of interest to the assessments to disparity in the degree of trust of external information. gain insights into the extent communities relate to El Participants from Santa Maria and Ancacca displayed Niño events and whether they respond to weather and they highest proportion of knowledge and trust in climate forecasts. climate information and willingness to act upon it. These communities had previously participated in the The assessments carried out by CIRNMA suggest NOAA Andes Climate Variability Project in 2000 and that almost half of the total participants have heard 2001 (Valdivia et al. 2003), in contrast to the other Table 15. Awareness, Use, and Trust of El Niño Information in Six Puno Communities, 2005 Workshop Main Information Did not USE Trust Community Total Source Did Listen Listen YES NO Yes No Did Not VOTE Aychuyo 42 Radio 12 30 4 7 4 7 0 Santa María 46 Radio 23 21 16 6 14 9 2 Yanamocco 31 Radio 9 13 5 4 5 4 9 Anccaca 56 Radio, TV 31 14 17 14 20 11 11 Candile 53 Radio, TV 27 12 12 15 13 14 14 Cari Cari 37 Radio 22 3 13 9 17 5 12 TOTAL 265 124 93 67 55 73 50 48 Note: Favorite Radio Stations: Pachamama (Puno, subregional), Onda azul (Puno, subregional), Campesina Juli (subregional), San Gabriel (Bolivia, regional/altiplano), Radio Programas del Peru (Lima, national). Source: Authors'data, based on community feedback. Climate Change Series 4 Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru communities that had received training in using the values were above 100 mm when the temperature existing climate information formats. SST anomaly exceeded 1.5°C in the same period. The temporal relationship between SST anomalies and For the majority of the participants, it is difficult seasonal precipitation is further displayed in Appendix C. to relate the information to their decision-making processes. These results reiterate the findings of similar The important aspect here to consider is that the studies conducted in Bolivian Aymara communities thresholds for substantial rainfall amounts are higher (Espejo and Carrillo 2000) and in Peru (Claverias), than the thresholds used for classifying El Niño events. which identified the need to more closely link external Hence an El Niño event may be classified by scientists information to local knowledge and information focusing on anomalies of the NINO 3.4 region, but networks. not necessarily translate into substantial differences in the environmental conditions of the communities in a Reflections on Community Responses specific locale. Consequently, the anchoring of global- scale predictions in local-scale observations becomes Piura. In the responses of communities in Piura, the important. alignment of local environmental signs with El Niño forecasts was highlighted as important to accepting the The importance of local changes in SSTs in triggering message of the forecast. Furthermore, the communities substantial rainfall in coastal northwestern Peru is only recognize strong El Niño events as disasters, shown in Figure 11. Here, temperatures above 26ºC which have led to widespread damage associated with are associated with elevated rainfall for the month of flooding. Therefore, the communities perceive the January, for example. Temperatures above 27ºC show recurrence time of El Niño events to be less frequent substantial increases; this reflects the practice of coastal than the scientific classification of El Niño events. communities such as Parachique of using local ocean As shown earlier, strong El Niño warming as an indicator of the quality of the rainy events lead to prolongation of the season. rainy season, as well as an increase Figure 10. A Comparison of the Seasonal Precipitation Total in the amplitude of the total rainfall from January to March (JFM) for La Esparanza with JFM SST amounts. Therefore, changes in the Anomalies in the NINO 3.4 Region timing of the rainfall are generally 900.0 a good indicator of El Niño events 800.0 and hence reflect the perception of 700.0 the communities. 600.0 500.0 Figure 10 relates SST anomalies 400.0 in the NINO 3.4 region to local 300.0 changes in temperature and )mm(latoTnoitaipicerP 200.0 precipitation averaged over the 100.0 three-month period from January to 0.0 March (JFM). Substantial increases -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 in precipitation are associated with SST Anomaly (C) different SST anomalies, depending Note: La Esperanza, lower Piura (04°55'04"S, 81°03'38"W, 12 m a.s.l). Relationship between three-month precipitation totals and SST temperature anomalies in the NINO 3.4 region. While seasonal temperature on the lead time given. For example, anomalies of 0.5ºC in the NINO 3.4 region are generally used to classify ENSO events, only anomalies above two out of three JFM precipitation 1.5ºC translate into substantial temperature increases in the coastal region of northwestern Peru. Source: Authors'analysis. 48 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives Figure 11. Comparison between January Precipitation in La Despite the widespread Esperanza and SST Values of the NINO 1.2 Region influence of ENSO on climatic conditions, there is no uniform 350.0 definition of El Niño conditions 300.0 )mm(noitatipicerP that are also automatically apply 250.0 to local climatic conditions. In 200.0 the case of Peru, the experience 150.0 developed by national and 100.0 regional meteorological 50.0 organizations in identifying 0.0 thresholds that are locally 22 24 26 28 30 relevant is of considerable SST (C) importance. SENAMHI and Note: SSTs above 26ºC are viewed as indicative of local El Niño conditions in northwestern Peru. other organizations do evaluate Source: Authors'analysis. the accuracy of forecasts. Much Accordingly, the national meteorological service uses of this knowledge and information on thresholds, a variety of indicators to forecast El Niño events, however, is not published internationally or made which includes the NINO 3.4 and 1.2 regions, as available to the public. well as measurements of coastal SST and land-surface temperatures. Based on conversations with SENAMHI Puno. In contrast with northwestern Peru, it is staff, the NINO 3.4 is used as a preliminary alert of particularly the NINO 3.4 region that exerts an possible impending El Niño conditions. The NINO influence on the climatic conditions of the altiplano. 1.2 region, as well as other observational data, is then While El Niño in the altiplano tends to be associated evaluated to confirm whether local El Niño conditions with an increased likelihood of drought conditions, are evolving closer in time to the rainy season. these effects may be modulated by other local and regional climatic factors. Furthermore, the multihazard The problem of late confirmation of El Niño forecasts environment in the altiplano means that a variety of is recognized in part as an outcome of the due diligence climatic extremes may be experienced in any given process within the ENFEN system, which requires a year. This masks the signal of El Niño events and may consensus view. While a uniform message on ENSO explain why the communities in the altiplano consider conditions is desirable, there appears to be a trade- El Niño events more an issue for the coastal regions in off concerning the timing of the forecast during this the North. consensus-building process. While advancement in seasonal forecasting techniques At the same time, the information is complementing and dissemination methods may also yield benefits international announcements and Web postings on the to the communities in the highlands, awareness and status of El Niño, which may use different classification understanding of the multihazard environment already systems. For example, international institutes such exists. Hence, a strong emphasis should be placed as the IRI use SST thresholds that result in a 25%- on better integrating this awareness in the design 50%-25% distribution of La Niña, normal, and El and implementation of development activities to Niño conditions. These thresholds are, however, not reduce the documented vulnerabilities in housing and necessarily relevant to changes in climatic conditions in infrastructure, human health, livestock health, and northwestern Peru. management and agricultural activities. Climate Change Series 4 Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru Use of Local Knowledge in the Prediction of Cabuyal, participants place considerable trust in their Climatic and Environmental Changes interpretation of environmental clues as warnings of weather extremes or insights into seasonal climatic The assessments also included an inventory of conditions. physical and biological indicators used within the communities to warn of impeding weather extremes When participants in Chato Grande were asked about or forecast the planting season (Table 16). Some of their use of environmental indicators, it was referred to these indicators are based on long-term observations as a practice of the elder people, viewed as something of of the abiotic and biotic environment, while others the past. In contrast to the other communities, Chato are rooted in belief systems and superstitions. A Grande has access to irrigation, making the community challenge is to separate reliable indicators with good a less vulnerable to climatic fluctuations. Hence, the correlation of climate events from indicators which are reasons for this somewhat dismissive response toward counterproductive. This is particularly important in traditional indicators may reflect the perception that relation to establishing better entry points for official such knowledge, or admitting to the use of it, is no climate information, given that the communities longer appropriate. It may also simply reflect the tend to trust more information originating from the socioeconomic changes that the community went immediate environment than from outside sources. through, which may have eroded the knowledge and The communities also expressed concern with some of confidence in interpreting traditional indicators. their indicators becoming less reliable due to climatic changes and an erosion of knowledge due to migration. Yet in the process of the conversation, participants in the Chato Grande assessment also highlighted a range Piura of indicators. The importance of environmental clues furthermore became apparent in the discussion of the Reflecting the predominant hazards in Piura, all flood of 2002. The community ignored warnings from communities highlighted environmental indicators for outside sources, because floods were previously only forecasting wet or dry conditions. The composition experienced in conjunction with preceding heavy rains. of indicators varied considerably between the As there were no rains, the warnings did not appear communities. The participants from the coastal credible. The flood was triggered by heavy rains in the community of Parachique, where livelihoods are highlands. largely focused on fishing activities, only focused on the description of physical indicators. The other Puno communities also highlighted observations of plants and species as important signals for judging climate The communities in Puno highlighted a broad number conditions (Table 16). of indicators for the range of climatic risks they are exposed to (Table 16). While there is, however, a Cabuyal, as a community located in the highlands general confidence in forecasting wet or dry climate of Piura, differed from the other communities in its conditions or obtaining at least some warning of more-complex risk profile. This was also reflected in a flood or frost conditions, there is low confidence in broader use of indicators for forecasting weather and predicting hail events. Hail events are not understood climate conditions (resembling more the importance of and are strongly related to superstitious beliefs, being indicators). considered a form of punishment for the communities. This is reflected by indicators named by communities The trust levels in local knowledge appeared to for hail events, which are predominantly linked to vary between the communities. In Parachique and human behavior associated with guilt. 0 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives - - of and ares - of of and a . winds ap - . tempera Maria. are [likely] hot from in . ayW Mist year moon practicality hot signs season. SST year facing lake rainy Strong iticacaT as flood appear clouds warning warninga are rainy Milky and warm going north Santa limbss are new March. 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S our 4 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives is ais - - and the as of stna impend lowland are broad local lP indicator of increased that conditions at as February ychuyoA the as Highlighted. and signa of indicator in receive an well animals not of .tsorfotevic specific varietya climate clouds likely [questionable] nests as, [questionable] yes;=Y of of did practicality ) January year and and in )deunitnoc(snoitidnoCcitamilCdnasemertxErehtaeWtciderPotseitinummoCybdesUsrotacidnI.61elbaT season. considered communities frosts and consideredis Location drya rangea in udnocsnoitid /naitsabeSnaS,)6yr [questionable] of of noitavresborofdethgi 31. sankayo. indicators absence that 15, the are the of as and The 1­3, anamocco;Y= validity in in leke linked Ym the Constellation likely leke season. signs as to ffodoohil ,revewoh,esehT.snoitidnoctsor fructification noce communities potential. tola, frost. of mountains of are rainy building conditions and August Cotto the particularly nests the taken [questionable] 29, individual karihua, considered Candile;= practical the frosts from the of are behavior of [questionable] of frosts. in assessment [likely/questionable/unlikely] whether conditions, eggs of only include atmospheric blowing forms [unlikely] flower sanekats and droughts Ca 23 their of to widelyis June Maria; initial of frost location dark are ekildesaercnihtiwdetaic and tamilcfongisa of in listed or further interest Example (an included Appearance sign Winds ing Y anamocco. The characteristics and likelihood ariousV os are support. delayed istnal No p of -resboehtrofstniopecnerefersadesuerasetaddnasyadilohsuoiraV vations conducive holidays h C include are aunaJ(zaPale lhgihsetadcfiicepS.serdnAnaSdna,airaledna signa daroñeSartseuNedulcnisyadilo Santa= aY Y Y Y Y Y Y SM investigated Cari; CC Y Y Y Y Y Y are Cari= Ca Y - - - - - CC "questionable" Community Anc Y - - - - - Anccaca;= or SM Y Y Y Y Y Y Acc "likely" either yA Y Y Y Y Y Y ychuyo;A=yA as classified fructification Cabuyal;= characteristics Cb examples Observation Appearance Direction Behavior Behavior Flowering, Physical Locuto;= indicator Loc that and Indicator amphibians Grande; recommend of arthropods, and holidays dates ypeT Chato= Stars Wind Bird ariousV insects, ariousV ariousV authors specific CG The . ecnavresbO fo sis )noitceleS( slaminA stnalP setaD cfiicepS dna )noitceleS( syadiloH suoigileR analy' lacisyhP Parachique;= applicable. )noitceleS( lacigoloiB rehtO Pq not= Ae:c uthors Frost Category Note: n.a. S our Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru Gauging the Role and Validity of Indicators cloud movements. To gain further confidence in this indicator, the reliability of these observations would Piura. The physical indicators highlighted by the need to be tested with a high-resolution time series on communities of Piura warrant further investigation wind patterns, which was not available in time for this concerning their reliability and potential to report. complement scientific forecasts. With the exception of Parachique, all communities in The association of exceptionally warm SSTs in the Piura highlighted a range of biological indicators. Given months preceding the rainy season represents a that changes in temperature, humidity, and radiation valid observation of the evolution of local El Niño affect the physiology of plants, the semiperiodic conditions, which are associated with the cold, fluctuation between dry (cool) and wet (hot) conditions nutrient-rich waters with warm ocean (correntada) due to ENSO makes it likely that these local plants currents. Exceptional land-surface temperatures are may provide valuable clues to the characteristics of also a consequence of local El Niño conditions in the the rainy season. Similarly, animals can function as months preceding and during the rainy season. indicators if their appearance or behavior is closely tied As local El Niño conditions are associated with the to temperature or moisture profiles associated with prolongation and intensification of the rainy season, El Niño events or dependent on plant species that early precipitation events generally represent a valid are linked to these climatic conditions. Longer-term signal for the communities to prepare for an intense observations would be required to identify the lead rainy season as well as heightened flood risk. times and reliability of local plant and animal species as indicators and to differentiate these indicators from While intense precipitation events represent a warning spurious correlations and false knowledge. of possible flooding in the Piura River basin, the absence of rainfall in the lower Piura River basin does Puno. Research has shown that the practice of not necessarily preclude a flood risk. The flooding of indigenous Andean communities of forecasting the Chato Grande in 2002, where warnings were largely quality of the rainy season according to the brightness ignored due to the absence of intense rainfall, illustrates of the Pleiades is based on sound observation and the need to strengthen the capacity of the communities yields equal or better predictive capabilities than some in the river basin to relate their local observation climate forecasts for the region (Orlove et al. 2000). with more regional forecasts. This applies also to the In the assessments, the communities placed their dissemination approach of scientific climate forecasts highest confidence in predicting dry or wet conditions, and early warning, which must recognize the important while they only had low confidence in forecasting hail influence of local observations. conditions. Wind direction was also highlighted by communities For forecasting the rainy season and associated flood in Piura as an important indicator of wet or dry risk, the communities highlighted a range of physical conditions. This appears to be a valid indicator for and biological indicators. Aside from the observance the coastal areas of northwestern Peru, which also has of stars, the observation of wind direction and strength been noted in coastal Ecuador (Cornejo, personal is given considerable attention. Easterly winds are communication). During El Niño years, the southward likely to be a valid physical indicator of a strong rainy displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone season and heightened flood risk, as highlighted by would introduce a circulation anomaly, which may the community of Candile. It has been shown that be observable in the prevalent wind directions or precipitation events during the austral summer months Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives are associated with mid-tropospheric winds with a large Nevertheless, systematically recording the observations easterly component, which allows for the transport of the communities and relating them to the occurrence of moisture from the Amazonian lowlands into the of climatic extremes and scientific forecasts could altiplano (Garraud et al. 2003). Increases in these provide important clues in relating regional scientific easterly flows would cause increases in precipitation. forecasts and local knowledge. Another indicator of wet conditions is ground fog, which is indicative of high soil-moisture content and Perceptions of Changing Climate reflects on the atmospheric moisture content of the Conditions region. The frequent observations could hence provide Assessments in northwestern Peru and the altiplano a valid near-term indicator of conditions conducive to region of southern Peru independently revealed a intense precipitation or lakeside flooding, as indicated concern among the communities about observed by the communities of Santa Maria, Aychuyo, and climatic and environmental changes. The perceptions Candile. described below are the outcomes of discussions The observation of clear skies is considered an indicator with community representatives during the synthesis of dry conditions favoring the occurrence of frosts. workshops in Piura (communities from Piura) and Given the high altitude of the altiplano, this is likely to Lima (communities from Puno). be a valid inference if clear skies are persistent during the night and the day (Seimon 2006). This would be Piura: Perceived Climatic Changes in indicative of pronounced atmospheric moisture deficit, Northwestern Peru which would favor strong cooling overnight due to the absence of insulating cumulus clouds. In northwestern Peru, a major concern is the perceived increase in daily maximum temperatures, while Another likely valid short-term indicator of frosts in the nighttime temperatures have become colder. While Titicaca region is southwest winds. Southwest winds dry conditions are the norm in this region of Peru, the would be downslope winds descending from cordilleras coastal communities felt that the drought conditions in the west, displacing moist air from the Amazonian they have been exposed to over the recent years were basin (Seimon 2006). If this anomalous wind direction unusual in their duration and pervasiveness. is sustained, it would lead to a drying of the atmosphere (boundary layer) and hence favor conditions that Puno: Perceived Climatic Changes in the promote overnight cooling (as described above). Peruvian Altiplano Concerning the physical data, meteorological In the altiplano region, communities are also observations in communication with the communities experiencing increases in daily maximum temperatures, would help in providing further detail on the lead saying they need to wear more sun-protective clothes times and reliability of these observations. As already such as hats than they used to when working in the pointed out for the Piura assessments, this could also field. Nighttime temperatures also appear to have help to relate micro- and mesoscale observations with become colder, falling more often below freezing. This larger-scale regional forecasts. The absence of accessible adversely affects important crops such as sweet potatoes meteorological data with high temporal resolution during the planting season. and longer-term records represents a major obstacle in validating the observations from the communities. Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru A major concern in the altiplano is the perceived Another challenge is to correctly relate the scale of change in the timing and magnitude of precipitation observations by the communities with the resolution of during the rainy season. Rains started around mid- the data and presentation of data. Monthly or seasonal December 15 to 20 years ago and used to peak in averages compiled may smooth out and hence mask intensity around February and March before fading signals, which are recognized by farmers and other out in April, which is closely resembles the historical individuals living closely with the environment. data record for Puno from the 1930s to 70s (see Fig. 3) While the beginning of the rainy season does not seem The discussion presented below does not pretend to to have changed, communities repeatedly noted that no be comprehensive; rather it is an attempt to obtain an rains or only very little rainfall occurs during February initial insight into whether some of the community and March. Instead, more frequent cold spells are perceptions are reflected in meteorological observations. observed. This is particularly detrimental to the potato Emphasis is placed on the main climatic parameters; harvest, as during this time, the plant is flowering and i.e., average, maximum, and minimum temperatures most vulnerable. Heavy rains are now observed in April, and precipitation. Monthly and seasonal summaries are when the potatoes would usually be harvested. usually presented. Where possible, additional analysis is included or reference to published research is made. Another worry is the decrease in water flows. The community representatives felt if this trend continues, The analysis below should be considered a start in they will have little or no water within the next one to guiding further analysis. In order to detect climatic two decades. signals at the community level, it appears to be valuable to include more systematic observations from farmers. Are These Perceptions True? Piura A continuous challenge in validating community perceptions about climatic changes is the access Figure 12 shows a warming trend in the daily to relevant data. In the case of Peru, the raw data maximum temperature for the months of January, may have been collected by the meteorological February, and March for Esperanza in the coastal region service (SENAMHI), but has not been processed of northwestern Peru. The discontinuous record initially aside from the main meteorological stations due to also shows increases in the daily minimum temperatures staffing limitation (personal communication with for the same months. Following data gaps more recent representatives from SENAMHI). Data can only be values show a steep increase in maximum temperatures provided through costly formal requests, which are in and a steep drop in minimum temperatures. Whether part needed for covering staffing costs, but are also a this reflects the recent perceptions of the communities common practice in many developing countries. that daytime temperatures are getting warmer while nighttime temperatures are getting cooler or is Besides accessibility, the quality of data may be a simply the result of other factors, such as changes in constraining factor. Short or discontinuous climatic instrumentation is unclear. Given the discontinuous records make it difficult to detect and validate trends. record, this interpretation has to be viewed with The lack of access to quality meteorological data caution. It also contradicts the general global trend constrains research efforts and may lead to a late of decreasing diurnal temperature ranges (e.g., IPCC detection of climatic signals, which ultimately have 2001). practical implications for climate-sensitive development processes, such as agriculture. 8 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives Figure 12. Average Monthly (A) Maximum and (B) Minimum Temperatures for Esperanza, Northwestern Coastal Peru A 34 33 )C(erutarepmeT32 31 30 Jan Maximum Feb 29 Mar 28 2791 4791 6791 8791 0891 2891 4891 6891 8891 0991 2991 4991 6991 8991 0002 Year B 27 )C(erutarepmeT 25 23 21 Jan 19 Minimum Feb 17 Mar 15 2791 4791 6791 8791 0891 2891 4891 6891 8891 0991 2991 4991 6991 8991 0002 Year Note: For the monthly averages of the hot months of January, February and March an increase in the (a) maximum temperatures can be observed from 1972 to 1996 can be observed. For the continuous data period from 1972­1993 (b) minimum temperatures also appear to be increasing. It is unclear, based on the limited measurement points, whether the steep increase in maximum temperatures and drop in minimum temperatures after the data gap is a result of change in instrumentation or reflects the more recent perceptions of the communities. Source: CONAM. Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru For Huancabamba in alto Piura, positive trends or no conducted in the Bolivian and Peruvian parts of the trends in daily maximum temperatures are observed for Andes generally confirms though that the region is the months of January to March (Figure 13). While the getting warmer; a warming trend can be detected at maximum temperatures for January appear to show an all elevations on the Pacific side of the Andes. General increase over time, the minimum temperatures exhibit a temperature increases in the range of 0.15 to 0.39 ºC slight decrease over time, and the opposite appears to be per decade have been observed over recent decades the case for the months of March. The perceptions of within the region (see Vuille and Bradley 2000, Vuille the communities are not clearly reflected in the data. In et al 2003, Diaz et al. 2003). general, the difficulty to obtain recent and continuous observational data records, constrains the ability to While microclimatic differences cannot be ruled out draw clear conclusions. between Cusco temperature record presented here and the region around Puno, it is likely that the general warming trend is likely to be similar. What could Puno therefore lead to the vivid perception by community Changes in the temperature were also a concern in the representatives that it is particular the maximum altiplano. The community representatives noted that temperatures, which have increased? it appears to get hotter during the day, while colder at night. Time records suggest that there is an increase in the intensity of solar radiation received in the altiplano It was not possible to obtain long-term temperature over time and the also appears to be an extension in records for the department of Puno for assessing the number of sun hours per day (Seimon, personal the validity of this observation. Instead, long- communication). Given that the community term records obtained for Cusco were taken as a perceptions are based on felt increases in temperatures, proxy. It can be expected that observed trends in it may be that their response rather reflects the maximum temperatures have the same sign. Due to increased intensity of the sun during the day rather the geographical distance the analysis of minimum than changes in the daily maximum temperature. temperature trends have to be viewed with greater caution, as microclimatic factors play a greater role. The perception of the communities that there are changes in precipitation characteristics of the Figure 14 shows that over a period of more than 40 altiplano is reflected in precipitation data in Figure years a significant warming trend can be observed in 15. Precipitation totals for the months of January, minimum and average temperatures, but not in the February, March, and April averaged over 30 years and maximum temperature. an area of 0.5 x 0.5 degrees, suggests that there is a shift from the maximum precipitation amount occurring The temperature data from Cusco does not exactly in January toward March over time. While these are match the observations in the communities. While broad averages, the direction of change is in line with a warming trend can be detected, it is observed for the community perception that there is a shift in the minimum and average temperature averages and not general precipitation pattern. If this can be confirmed for maximum temperatures. The temperature data, on finer temporal and spatial scales, this would have however, reflects also the general observation that implications for the time of planting cycles and may the warming trends observed across the globe tend explain some of the irritation of the communities with to be more pronounced in minimum temperatures the reliability of environmental indicators. than maximum temperatures (IPCC 2001). Research 0 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives Figure 13. Average Monthly (a) Maximum and (b) Minimum Temperatures for Huancabamba, Sierras, Upper Piura Watershed A 26.0 )C(erutarepmeT24.0 22.0 Jan Maximum Feb Mar 20.0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Year B 16.0 15.0 )C(erutarepmeT14.0 13.0 12.0 Jan Minimum 11.0 Feb Mar 10.0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Year Note: Monthly averaged (a) maximum and (b) minimum temperatures are displayed. Positive trends or no trends in daily maximum are observed for the months of January to March. While the maximum temperatures for January appear to show an increase over time, the minimum temperatures exhibit a slight decrease over time, and the opposite appears to be the case for the months of March. The perceptions of the communities are not clearly reflected. Source: CONAM. Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru Figure 14. Long-term Temperature Record for (a) Minimum, (b) Maximum, and (c) Average Temperature in Cusco, Peru A B Note: While no trend in the maximum temperature can be detected, a warming trend in minimum and average temperatures can be detected (processed data courtesy A. Seimon). Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives Figure 14. Long-term Temperature Record for (a) Minimum, (b) Maximum, and (c) Average Temperature in Cusco, Peru (continued) C Note: While no trend in the maximum temperature can be detected, a warming trend in minimum and average temperatures can be detected (processed data courtesy A. Seimon). While further detail is needed Figure 15. Precipitation Averaged over 30-year Periods for to explore the interaction with January to April for the Peruvian Altiplano Region interannual and interdecadal climate variability, the perceptions 200 1901-1930: of changing climatic conditions 180 160 1941-1970: and concern for water resources 140 1961-1990: voiced by the communities (mm) 120 1971-2000: 1973-2002: should be taken serious. Aside 100 from scientific trends, adaptation 80 responses are already being 60 Precipitation 40 reported. Halloy et al. (2005) 20 have documented an upward 0 shift in the area of cultivation Jan Feb Month Mar Apr in some parts of the altiplano. A shift in the precipitation Note: The data suggest a possible shift in timing of the rainy season over time. Data source: Climatic Research Unit, provided by CIP. patterns in conjunction with the ongoing glacial melt would have considerable implications for agricultural activities in the altiplano. Climate Change Series 3 Conclusions and Recommendations T he assessments illustrate that strengthening the that can occur in short sequence. These risks make it adaptive capacity to climatic shocks is vital to very difficult for communities to accumulate assets the sustainable development of the coastal and or regain them once they are lost in a disaster event. highland regions of Peru. A major challenge for There is a need to improve the yield of existing the communities in Piura and Puno is to protect critical natural-resource-based livelihood practices, while also assets in order to avoid a poverty spiral. The important providing the opportunity for diversifying into income- aspect here to consider is that development activities generating activities that are more climate-resilient. have to be conducted with a full appreciation of the risk The multihazard environment makes access to credit envelope of the communities. and insurance mechanisms paramount to minimize the impact of climate-related shocks on households. Both in northwestern Peru and in the altiplano, Here, innovative initiatives suited to this high-risk managing risks across the entire spectrum of climate environment are needed. variability becomes more important in light of climate change. In Piura, this means better managing the The report represents only a point-in-time investigation fluctuations between dry and wet climatic conditions. of the perceptions of communities concerning their El Niño events have to be managed not only in terms exposure to climatic risks and capacity to adapt and of flood risks, but also viewed as an opportunity to cope. The exercise has shown, however, a strong livelihoods due to the above normal water supply, willingness and interest by the communities to better revitalized vegetation, and so on. These positive effects manage environmental risks. But the communities are for natural-resource-dependent livelihoods,can only certainly aware of their limitations, and in order to be utilized, however, if these livelihoods are better improve their situation outside support is needed in (i) buffered against the destruction of infrastructure, terms of information that supports the identification disease outbreaks, and other impacts associated with of risk factors (especially helping to clarify causal and the climatic extremes of strong El Niño events, and spatial relationships), informs them about adaptive (ii) equipped to utilize the subsequently improved measures, and provides an enabling environment environmental conditions through access to markets for creating more climate-resilient livelihoods. The and credit. The semiperiodic occurrence of ENSO sections below highlight a range of interventions that events and the fairly clear-cut risk exposure provides can be undertaken at the national, department, and a good planning framework for strengthening the community level and are likely to reduce vulnerabilities. resilience of communities to climatic risks. Only general cross-cutting issues that apply to Piura and/or Puno communities are identified, while In Puno, managing climatic risks means strengthening community-specific interventions are listed in Appenix D. resilience to a broad spectrum of climatic extremes Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru Use of Climate Information In Puno, efforts need to be more focused on improving the understanding of climate risks in their spatial The assessments have illustrated that building a bridge dimension at the community level and providing between external information and internal decision- climate information that is more directly linked to the making structures and knowledge are important in the production systems of the altiplano. A major constraint adaptive management of climate risks. is the dissemination format, since such a format needs El Niño forecasts are predominantly recognized by to take into account the low literacy levels of the Piura communities and not communities in Puno, communities. where the effects of El Niño are masked by the Activities focused on improving the integration of multihazard environment. Even in Piura, however, climate information into the decision-making processes the recognition of El Niño events differs considerably at the community level could include: from scientific classification. Only the strong El Niño events of 1982­83 and 1997­98 were picked up by the (i) Trust-building exercises between information communities, while more moderate events in between providers and communities through local meet- this time frame were usually not recognized by the ings; communities as El Niño events. Furthermore, La Niña (ii) Development (staffing/training) of multiple is not a concept the communities tend to be familiar extension services that link information on climate with. This has to be reflected in the dissemination of risks with practical guidance on natural resource early warnings of ENSO events. management, agricultural and livestock practices, health and hygiene practices, and disaster preven- For the communities of Puno, the climate-risk profile tion and allow for a two-way dialogue process with makes more holistic access to weather and climate the communities; forecasts more important than warnings of particular (iii) Collection and assessment of local knowledge of El Niño events. In both cases, it is important the environmental indicators building on existing information formats fit into the local knowledge and information collection structures by the General decision-making structures. Directorate for Agrometeorology (GDA) within The review of local indicators on climate and SENAMHI and other institutional structures; and environmental conditions suggest that they are still of (iv) Review and reform of the consensus-finding considerable importance to the communities, although process on ENSO conditions to allow for more the knowledge of these indicators appears often timely dissemination of forecasts based on a more rudimentary or confined to a smaller group. participatory dissemination process, enabling a more detailed communication of uncertainties and Through ENFEN, the government of Peru has improvement. a promising network of institutions engaged in information collection and forecasting. The main Research constraints that form the perspective of communities The focus of the recommendations herein is on applied concerning the use of information based on these research that aims to relate the scientific analysis of the forecast capabilities of El Niño conditions appear to be physical and economic environment to the practical lack of trust toward some of the information providers needs of the communities. and the dissemination method. Environment Department Papers Conclusions and Recommendations Environmental Risks and Change There is also a need to strengthen the exchange between Spanish- and English-speaking research activities by The discussions with the communities have shown that supporting partnerships and translating important there is a widespread perception of change. Some of knowledge products. these changes could be confirmed in data records. There is, however, the need for more in-depth investigation of climatic data and environmental signs at scales Climate Forecasts and Local Indicators that are most relevant to the livelihood frameworks of The assessments in Piura and Puno illustrated a range the communities. It is not only important to detect of indicators that could help to relate forecasts to whether there are changes in the absolute monthly or more-local climatic conditions. Given the importance annual values over time, but to what extent changes are of environmental signals to the acceptance of climate occurring at temporal scales that are directly relevant to forecasts, further efforts should include a systematic the livelihoods of the communities (e.g., changes in the assessment of the validity of promising biophysical characteristics of the rainy season). indicators. Given the sensitivity of Piura and Puno to changes in water resources, it is important that a continuous Agriculture and Livestock Management and monitoring of relevant climatic parameters is ensured Market Research in the regions. Availability and access to data is essential for the early detection of climate signals in these Research initiatives focused on promoting climate- regions, as this may have profound implications for the resilient agricultural practices, pest management, and development. the protection of livestock needs to be promoted to improve the portfolio of practical options to reduce the In light of climate change, detailed profiles of current impact of environmental hazards on the assets of the and projected climatic conditions for the various households. This should be connected with exploring departments of Peru, and understanding how these market opportunities, such as identifying niche markets profiles relate to the prevalent livelihoods, is becoming for (native) crops well-suited for the climatic conditions ever more important. CONAM has embarked on of the altiplano. evaluating climate change in various departments, conducting basin-wide assessments under, for example, Incentive Systems the ProClim program. This is a promising development; however, based on the consultations for this report, Communities in Piura and Puno both noted the access to climate data is difficult for external researchers absence of credit systems adequate for their specific and often comes at a considerable cost. There is a need needs. In Puno, organizations like CIRNMA have been to make climate data more easily accessible to stimulate successfully piloting credit schemes; however, there research activities on Peru, given its high vulnerability is a need to understand how such credit schemes and to climate variability and change. insurance mechanisms could be upscaled and sustained. Initiatives should particularly be focused on promoting The effects of environmental degradation on households research and facilitating exchange of methodologies were also recognized in the assessments. There is a need and knowledge concerned with information on (i) to provide communities with options and incentives to climate baseline, (ii) climatic trends at scales relevant reduce local environmental impacts, which exacerbate to development intervention, and (iii) refinement of risk exposure. Creating, for example, incentives for detailed future climate scenarios. Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru afforestation in the upper Piura River basin would integration of local knowledge. The adaptive capacity not only help to counteract erosion processes in of communities needs to be strengthened through a communities in Cabuyal, but also help to reduce the combination of awareness-raising activities and targeted silting of the riverbed in lower Piura and, thereby, investments. A strong emphasis on awareness of risks flood risks. In this context it may be worthwhile to and appropriate adaptation measures is needed in order explore potential revenue streams to communities to empower communities to make decisions on how created through the emergence of the carbon market for they can address these risks and create ownership of afforestation activities. local-level actions. Tracking Progress Awareness Building Given the advances in climate information and natural While communities are aware of their vulnerability resource management practices, there is the opportunity and some constraining factors to adaptive actions, to develop a comprehensive risk management strategy the assessments have also shown that there often is for communities. In order to assess the success of such still a limited knowledge of the mechanisms that efforts, however, it would be crucial to track progress increase vulnerabilities to a particular hazard, lack of over time. This should include monitoring the uptake understanding of spatial extent of disaster risk and of external information and risk management strategies linkages between environmental degradation and in targeted communities. By tracking household assets climate-related vulnerabilities, and a need for improved and climate hazards over time, this should provide knowledge of adaptation options. Furthermore, insights into how successful current risk management there is also a lack of understanding of how changes options are in improving the resilience of communities. outside their immediate environment could affect a If successful, households should be able to increase their community. asset base over time while facing the same or increasing hazard exposure. This needs to be validated through In Piura, Chato Grande serves as a case in point. long-term monitoring efforts. By relating flooding conditions solely to the local presentation of rain, the community ignored warning These systems could be designed in such a way that of a flood, which was triggered elsewhere in the they can also function as bottom-up early warning Piura River basin. In Puno, the communities lack, systems, which trigger emergency response mechanisms for example, an understanding of the mechanisms when household assets fall below critical thresholds. that trigger hail and hence link its occurrence to Such mechanisms have, for example, been successfully superstitious beliefs. When the communities engaged developed in Kenya with financing from the World with CIRNMA in a dialogue on and spatial mapping of Bank. disaster risk, this sparked an increase in understanding the evolution of hazards and identifying areas at risk. Community Action on Climate Risk Activities focused on building community-level Management awareness and knowledge include The above section has already highlighted the need to tailor climate information more specifically to (i) spatial mapping of disaster-prone areas using a community-specific needs and improve communication participatory process that provides a learning structures that allow for feedback mechanisms and environment; 8 Environment Department Papers Conclusions and Recommendations (ii) training on natural resource, agricultural, and in alternative and less climate-dependent income livestock management techniques to mitigate the sources. impact of climate risk and associated effects, and (iii) Human Health. Vector- and water-borne diseases (iii) Initiation and strengthening of dialogue processes have been closely linked to ENSO and are further to strengthen knowledge exchange of adaptation affected by increased climatic variability, as and coping practices and promote community- evidenced in the repeated outbreaks of malaria owned solutions to risk management strategies (coastal Peru) and cholera. In the altiplano, the that require intercommunity collaboration; e.g., extreme fluctuations in temperature and inad- community-focused flood early- warning systems equate protection of households constitute a major and river-basin environmental management. concern. Microprojects will focus on investments in hygiene and protection that minimize exposure Community-Level Investments to this risk. This also should be coupled with structural investments (see vii) . It is suggested that awareness-raising efforts in the (iv) Livestock Health. Investments aimed at improv- communities are coupled with concrete investments, ing livestock health by minimizing exposure and which place an emphasis on community-centered improving monitoring and treatment options microprojects. With the focus on risk management, are more urgently needed in the face of climate communities could go through a modified community- change. driven development process aimed at creating (v) Environmental Rehabilitation. Environmental ownership and commitment toward risk-mitigating degradation is a shared concern among communi- measures. ties in Piura and Puno, and training an targeted in investments in environmental rehabilitation and Microprojects could be clustered around the following natural resource management are needed. themes: (vi) Credit and Microinsurance: Microprojects may (i) Information Access/Infrastructure. Microprojects include the piloting of community-focused, small- under this category are focused on investments scale credit and insurance mechanisms to facilitate that improve communication infrastructure to the adoption of new agricultural practices and better access information on climate risks, adapta- other livelihood strategies. tion measures, and market information. Various (vii) Structural Investments: This component would dissemination tools such as mobile phones, radios, place an emphasis on strengthening the ability of and computers could be tested with the communi- communities to be prepared for increased climate ties based on community preferences and technical variability and manage across the entire spectrum feasibility. This component would be coupled with of climate conditions. This includes, for example, training or education activities. investments in water harvesting and storage tech- (ii) Livelihood Enhancement and Diversification. Mi- nologies and erosion-control measures. Particularly croprojects are focused on enhancing the resilience in the altiplano, investments would also focus on of current livelihood practices to climate risks, reinforcing and improving the insulation of houses including, for example, promotion of technical against extreme temperature fluctuations and interventions, application of intercropping and soil providing low-cost options for the construction conservation techniques, and introduction of more of shelters to better protect livestock and enhance resilient crop varieties, but also providing training productivity. Construction of safe storage facilities for seeds and forage represents another promising Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru investment for reducing the vulnerabilities of face of disasters. The goal should be working with and communities. expanding on the existing structures and integrating external partners where appropriate. Structural investments would also focus on rehabilitating and training communities in the External assistance to communities focused on coping management of ancient structures or testing simple with a specific disaster should focus on solutions that interventions based on transfer of knowledge from also reduce vulnerabilities to future hazard exposure. other regions, which have been shown to improve Communities in northern Peru and the altiplano water use or reduce vulnerability to the extreme climate repeatedly noted the inadequacy of building design variability. In the altiplano, such efforts may include and infrastructure for the prevalent risk profiles. The rehabilitation and training in the maintenance of waru destruction of school buildings or the lack of insulation warus (raised fields). In northwestern Peru, this may to protect them from extreme temperatures had entail testing the suitability of albarradas (u-shaped cascading effects on the development prospects of the detention ponds, pre-Inca technology that is still used communities by affecting the educational opportunities in coastal Ecuador to capture excessive run-off and of the children. Therefore, incorporating risk profiling recharge aquifers) or sand dams, which can help hold and mapping and building safety standards needs to water longer into the dry season. be promoted when engaging with the communities in reconstruction efforts. Solutions will need to go beyond the immediate alleviation of the suffering in the face Enabling Frameworks: Institutional of extreme events by also focusing on reducing the Coordination and Support likelihood of recurrence of such suffering. The emerging The assessments have highlighted a range of initiatives, signs of climate change make the focus on preventive which are currently undertaken to reduce risks at the and adaptive measures to climate risks in Peru ever community level. However, most of these activities more urgent. are confined to particular communities and there is a need to build a more comprehensive risk management Peru's growing emphasis on disaster risk prevention and framework. adaptation to climate change needs to be supported and developed. Given the high prevalence of natural disaster There is a need for promoting partnerships at various and the increasingly visible effects of climate change, levels, which lead to a more coordinate approach to risk management efforts have to be understood as an managing climate-related risks. The workshops in Peru, integral part of development processes and not as an which brought together community representatives add-on. Community-focused microprojects, such as the and institutional representatives, illustrated how such ones outlined above, represent the opportunity to pilot meetings can break down barriers and provide learning and then upscale interventions aimed at reducing the opportunities between the various stakeholders. The vulnerabilities of the poor. Such local efforts also need communities from Puno (altiplano region) expressed to be better linked to the relevant national and sub- the desire to continue this dialogue. Institutions may regional support structures. While there is currently a help to facilitate such meetings or use them to create range of governmental, non-governmental and scientific awareness about their work. There is currently a rather expertise available, initiatives are often limited in weak link with municipalities resulting in a feeling of their scope and reach. While some communities have exclusion by the communities; strengthening these access to several organizations, others receive little or linkages through outreach events or by other means no support. It remains a challenge to build a broader would help to increase awareness of options in the enabling framework that helps to disseminate and 0 Environment Department Papers Climate Resilient Development -- Community Perspectives replicate positive experiences in managing climatic risks in basic climate science for Peru, as well as targeting and promoting development in the region. applied research into risk management options for vulnerable development sectors. In conjunction with Aside from an emphasis on reducing the existing developing the knowledge basis, efforts need to be made adaptation deficit to currently observed climate to identify processes in policies and education that need variability and change, institutional efforts need to to be initiated now to ensure that future Peruvians have continue strategic planning efforts for managing the the option to pursue livelihood strategies that are less medium- to long-term implications of climate change. vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This means stimulating research and knowledge sharing Climate Change Series References AfDB (African Development Bank, ADB (Asian Francou, B., P. Ribstein, P. Wagnon, E. Ramirez, and Development Bank), DFID (Department for B. Pouyaud. 2005. "Glaciers of the Tropical Andes: International Development, U.K.), BMZ (Federal Indicators of the Global Climate Variability." 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"Economic Impacts of Rapad Glaciar Retreta in Climate Change Series Appendix A -- Spatial Hazard Maps of Puno Communities Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru 8 Environment Department Papers Appendix A -- Spatial Hazard Maps of Puno Communities Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru 80 Environment Department Papers Appendix A -- Spatial Hazard Maps of Puno Communities Climate Change Series 8 Appendix B -- Warm (El Niño) and Cold (La Niña) Phases of ENSO Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ Year 1950 -1.8 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -1 1950 1951 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 1951 1952 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 1952 1953 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1953 1954 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -1 -1.1 -1.1 -1 -1 1954 1955 -1 -0.9 -0.9 -1 -1.1 -1 -1 -1 -1.5 -1.8 -2.1 -1.7 1955 1956 -1.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 1956 1957 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.5 1957 1958 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.3 1958 1959 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 1959 1960 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 1960 1961 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 1961 1962 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 1962 1963 -0.6 -0.3 0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1 1 1963 1964 0.8 0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -1 -1.1 -1.1 -1 1964 1965 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 0 0.2 0.6 1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1965 1966 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 1966 1967 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 1967 1968 -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.4 0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1968 1969 1 1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 1969 1970 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -1.2 1970 1971 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1 -0.9 1971 1972 -0.7 -0.3 0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2 2.1 1972 1973 1.8 1.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.7 -1.9 -2 1973 1974 -1.8 -1.6 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 1974 1975 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7 -1.8 1975 1976 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1976 1977 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1977 1978 0.7 0.4 0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 1978 1979 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 1979 1980 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0 -0.1 0 0 -0.1 1980 1981 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 1981 1982 0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.3 1982 1983 2.3 2 1.6 1.2 1 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 1983 1984 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -1 -1.1 1984 1985 -1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 1985 1986 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1986 1987 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 1 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1987 1988 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.3 -1.6 -1.9 -1.9 1988 1989 -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 1989 1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 1990 1991 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1 1.4 1.7 1991 1992 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0 0.1 1992 1993 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 1993 1994 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1994 1995 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 1995 1996 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 1996 1997 -0.4 -0.3 0 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.7 2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 1997 1998 2.4 2 1.4 1.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.8 -1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 1998 1999 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 1999 2000 -1.6 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 2000 2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 2001 2002 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 2002 2003 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.1 0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 2003 2004 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 2004 2005 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.7 2005 2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 2006 2007 0.8 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 2007 Definition: Conditions for a warm (cold) phase of ENSO are met if SST anomalies above 5ºC (below ­ 5ºC) are sustained for a minimum of three consecutive months. Source: NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml. Climate Change Series 8 Appendix C -- Precipitation Totals in Relation to Seasonal SST Anomalies in Esperanza S easonal precipitation totals in relation to seasonal The graphs show examples of different lead times for SST anomalies in the NINO 3.4 region in SST anomalies in the NINO 3.4 region in relation Esperanza, coastal northwestern Peru to the later observed precipitation total measured for Esperanza from January to March (JFM). SST Anomalies from May to July (MJJ) of the Preceding Year JFM Precipitation Total (mm) for Esparanza in comparison with MJJ SST Anomalies in NINO 3+4 region of the preceding year 900 )mm(latoTnoitatipicerP 800 700 600 500 400 300 MFJ 200 100 0 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 SST Anomalies SST Anomalies from June to August (JJA) of the Preceding Year JFM Precipitation Total (mm) for Esparanza in relation to JAS SST anomalies in the NINO 3.4 region of the preceding year 900 )mm(latoTnoitatipicerP 800 700 600 500 400 300 MFJ 200 100 0 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 SST Anomalies (deg C) Climate Change Series 8 Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru SST Anomalies from August to September (ASO) of the Preceding Year JFM Precipitation Total (mm) for Esparanza in relation to ASO SST Anomalies in the NINO 3.4 region of the preceding year 900 )mm(latoTnoitatipicerP 800 700 600 500 400 300 MFJ 200 100 0 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 SST Anomalies (deg C) SST Anomalies from October to December (SON) of the Preceding Year JFM Precipitation Total (mm) for Esparanza in relation to SON SST Anomalies in the NINO 3.4 region of the preceding year 900 )mm(latoTnoitatipicerP 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 MFJ 100 0 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 SST anomalies (deg C) 8 Environment Department Papers Appendix C -- Precipitation Totals in Relation to Seasonal SST Anomalies in Esperanza SST Anomalies from November to January (NDJ) JFM Precipitation Total (mm) for Esparanza in relation to NDJ SST Anomalies in the NINO 3.4 region )mm(latoTnoitatipicerP 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 MFJ 100 0 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 SST Anomalies (deg C) SST Anomalies from December to February (DJF) JFM Precipitation Total (mm) for Esparanza in relation to DJF SST Anomalies in the NINO 3.4 region 900.0 )mm(latoTnoitapicerP 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 MFJ 200.0 100.0 0.0 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 SST Anomalies (deg. C) Climate Change Series 8 Appendix D -- Community-Specific Recommendations Parachique W Measures proposed by the women's group: hen the groups were asked about future · Believe in religion, which helps people to cope measures that the community and its with disasters. families could implement to strengthen · Secure homes well to keep water out. their ability to adapt and respond to climate events, the responses from the men's and Measures that Require Outside Assistance women's groups were different. The men mentioned Measures proposed by the men's group: policy proposals that would let them manage the resources that they generate for developing the Work for legislation and standards that favor the town's fishing community (an expression of the situation of desires conflict with the Municipality of Sechura and with central government organizations, by whom they · Get the community recognized as a Minor feel ignored), support for improving artisanal fishing Population Center (Centro Poblado Menor) with activities, making the bay healthier, coastal defense, and represented municipality functions, so that its tax organizing and training the population. The women contributions to the Municipality of Sechura are proposed measures at the family and daily level (they reinvested in Parachique. expressed a great deal of concern during the workshop · Surveillance and compliance with the laws that about the safety conditions in their homes and in the protect artisanal fishing. bay). · Get the Ministry of Fisheries to return the amount of taxes collected from the community, to be used Measures that Do Not Require Outside for reinforcing the seawall. Assistance Support the improvement of artisanal fishing activities Measures proposed by the men's group: · Create a fund to finance the improvement and · Continue with the climate information provided updating of fishing boats and methods, so that by the Parachique Harbormaster's Office, because fishermen can also catch the new species that it is reliable. appear with El Niño, and finance navigation and · Comply with the Parachique Harbormaster Office's radio communication equipment for the boats. permission to leave port for any boat heading out · Promote diversification between artisanal fishing to sea. and other activities. · Involve the entire family, including women and · Support the installation of a refrigeration chamber young children, in discussions about the future of to preserve artisanal fishing products. Parachique. Climate Change Series 8 Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru · Get practical technical training related to fishing · Build homes in the higher section for those that do activities. not have them. · Develop an adult education school. Improve health conditions in the bay Chato Grande · Improve the area's health conditions in order to protect the people's health and improve fishing The participants of each group were asked about production (they don't have health certification for future measures that the community and its families the fishing products). could implement to strengthen their ability to adapt and respond to climate events. They identified the Protection, safety, information following: · Improve and expand coastal defense. · Install a communications system for direct warn- Measures the Community Could Take without ings between the Callao Harbormaster's Office and Outside Assistance the Parachique Harbormaster's Office in case of Water Management ocean phenomena. · Establish weather stations in Parachique, especially · Generate agreements with the Irrigation Users for reading ocean temperature and measuring Committee to improve water management; winds. · Develop crops that require little water, such as · Support the installation of a hyperbaric chamber black-eyed peas and corn; and for rapid first aid to shellfish divers. · Greater concern for and monitoring of irrigation · Establish a climate change office in Parachique water turns. (they say there are young university students who could staff it). Social Participation Organization and training · Involve young people and teachers in communal · Support better organization of the group that work and efforts. represents the entire town. · Conduct massive training workshops to promote Preventive Evacuation the population's awareness and consideration · Move to Nuevo Chato Grande sufficiently in regarding its attitude toward weather phenomena. advance. This evidently involves a "learned lesson," Communications equipment since they have no actual plans to move because they consider Nuevo Chato Grande too distant · Install a public telephone for receiving calls and from their income sources. using the Internet. · Install a parabolic antenna for retransmitting TV Measures that Require Outside Assistance broadcasts. Flood-risk mitigation Measures proposed by the women's group: · Improve river-bank defenses by raising the levees. · Dredge the river to remove the silt. · Have family vegetable gardens. · Change the river's course and provide it with an outlet into the sea (14 km) with the involvement 0 Environment Department Papers Appendix D -- Community-Specific Recommendations of the central government (Ministry of Agricul- Infrastructure improvement ture) and the regional government. This is a deeply felt need; the participants said it could be done, be- · Improve the road between Nuevo Chato Grande cause they have heard proposals in this regard; but and Chato Grande Antiguo (Old Chato Grande). machinery and a major investment are required. Preparation and prevention for El Niño effects and Water and environmental management climatic variability · Improve management of irrigation and human- · Create a family fund to cope with El Niño events. consumption water management. · Train and organize the population for preparedness · Train residents and farmers on water management and better coping with contingencies. and use vis-à-vis major drought issues. · Provide access to clear and easily understandable · Protect the forest by planting more trees and climate information to aid the farmers' decision controlling logging. making, including practical advice for their plant- · Promote a fair distribution of irrigation water. ing decisions. · Reinforce environmental education at the school · Access to timely information to issue flood warn- level. ings on time. · Build the local promoters' capacities. This proposal Diversifying of activities emerged from the group's discussion as a reflection on the need to have a preventive attitude and to · Develop training centers and workshops for encourage the population to adopt changes. technical works such as plumbing, masonry, etc. · Promote forming of microbusinesses for income Locuto generation. The participants were asked about future measures that · Seek, in an organized manner, income-generating the community and its families could implement to alternatives for drought periods (pottery, weaving, strengthen their ability to adapt and respond to climate beekeeping). events. They identified the following: Improvement of agriculture, raising livestock, and promotion of processing activities Measures the Community Could Take without External Assistance · Promote and support production of profitable crops of short vegetative periods that require little · Sensitize the population (especially children) about water (such as peanuts, soybeans, black-eyed peas, climate changes and El Niño. pigeon peas, grapes, watermelon, and squash). · Strengthen the community's ability to form and · Improve pig raising. maintain organization. · Provide technical advisory, training, and credit for · Promote recognition of women's value in the the development of agroforestry systems to protect community. crops. · Take advantage of local resources in production · Promote the development of activities that add and agribusiness. value to local products and further employment; · Promote diversification of forest-related activities. for instance, carob-processing activities. · Promote growing of tamarind and other species that require little water. Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru · Each family could plant two tamarind plants on of the proposed development plan for the area and are their land now, which would start producing in listed below: three to four years. · In the future, select a variety of seeds for reforesta- tion: carob, overal, sapote. Measures that Could Be Implemented by the · Promote changes in eating habits that increase Community without External Assistance (part consumption of local products (carob coffee, carob of the development plan for the left bank of the powder, and milk consumption). Piura River, in Tambogrande) · Storage of carob for feeding livestock. Measures that Require Outside Assistance · Coordination with SENASA, local government, · Improve education quality. and nongovernmental organizations to run · Investigate possible low-risk production on land livestock disease prevention campaigns. in the dry forest area, using well water or pumped · Improvement of livestock pens. river water. · Organization to implement production initiatives. · Investigate the use of subsoil water and tubular · Improved strategies for aiding the most vulnerable wells for human consumption on the left river- families. bank. · Diversified production and income-generating · Organize and train the population for preparations activities. and prevention. · Tree thinning and pruning as part of a dry-forest · Prepare a rational forest management plan. management strategy. · Develop a genetic improvement plan for sheep to · Communitywide control measures to reduce be used for meat. logging and charcoal production. · Develop organic beekeeping methods using the · Make the decision to relocate the homes of families virgin forests. affected by the 1997­98 El Niño. · They are currently working with Plan Piura · Plan to plant the occasional and floodplain fields (formerly Plan Internacional) to develop organic as a community, promoting diversification with fertilizers and better stoves, and the educational resistant varieties and reducing dependency on the centers are conducting projects to process carob use of agrochemicals. products. Cofinancing and management are · Agree not to increase the areas intended for use needed from the regional and central governments as occasional fields, promoting diversification of and from nongovernmental organizations. production activities. · Encourage the consumption of yupisin to combat The community of Locuto is part of an area called the anemia and malnutrition. left bank of the Piura River in Tambogrande. In this · Improve corrals to protect livestock. area and in others within the district, they recently · Encourage and promote the population's participa- began a participatory planning process to formulate tion through these organizations. a development plan, directed by the Municipality of · Work with public and private institutions. Tambogrande and with technical support from the · Hold meetings to identify and teach the lessons Ceproda Minga and Cooperación nongovernmental learned during the 1982­83 and 1997­98 El Niño organizations. The measures discussed, identified in a events. workshop held on July 13, 2005 became the framework Environment Department Papers Appendix D -- Community-Specific Recommendations Measures that Require External Assistance (part · Execute projects and take measures to control wa- of the development plan for the left bank of the tercourses and gullies with appropriate techniques Piura River, in Tambogrande) using local resources. Planning and regulation Improvement of rural production systems · Formulate a territorial organization plan, with · Control carob pests and diseases using methods participation and with a focus on prevention, to based on ecological principles and management divide the forest into zones based on the local that reinforces the natural vegetation's diversity. population's production, extraction, and reproduc- · Conduct research on the diversity of pests that tion activities; use it as the planning unit for the affect carob flowering and fruit production, given entire dry-forest ecosystem on the left bank of the the importance of the carob pods in forest-produc- Piura River, with jurisdiction in the Districts of tion activities. Tambogrande and Chulucanas. · Promote the construction of family carob silos. · With participation, develop a dry forest manage- · Promote rural agribusiness and diversification of ment plan covering the four farming communities production activities based on proper management on the left bank of the Piura River, Tambogrande of the dry forest. District. · Establish a permanent community animal health · Develop a forest fire prevention and control plan. program. · Design an organizational plan of areas to be used · Conduct genetic improvement in sheep to use for for housing and services. meat. · Introduce tamarind, a variety that is well adapted Technical studies and projects to dry forest conditions and for which there is a · Conduct a technical study on risk evaluation and market demand. assignment by territory. · Create a seed bank with varieties adapted to El · Conduct the technical study and construct a Niño conditions for planting in the occasional and potable water system for the left bank of the Piura floodplain fields. River in the District of Tambogrande. · Conduct training, credit, technical-assistance, and · Conduct a technical study on soil conditions in the market-access programs to improve beekeeping current occasional field areas to determine the level and rural agribusiness and to promote agroecologi- of degradation, potential use, and recovery efforts cal production. needed, as well as low-risk production possibilities · Certify products as organic. using subsoil water. · Promote ecological tourism. · Complete the technical study for building a bridge Nutrition, health, and social aspects over the Piura River. · Drill community-chain pump wells to supply · In all municipalities, institute the procurement of water for family consumption and to improve soluble carob powder to supplement the Glass of productive activities such as raising small livestock. Milk Program's allotments. · Build firebreak ditches in areas where forest fires · Promote the construction of better stoves to reduce are common. wood consumption and improve women's health · Construct a drainage system in inhabited areas to conditions. accommodate the rainy seasons. Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru · Implement nutritional support and food-for-work · Change planting dates according to climate condi- programs for highly vulnerable families in drought tions to reduce risks. situations. · Institute a program for disease prevention and for Improvement of livestock production systems treating the symptoms and aftereffects of malaria. · Processing of harvest residues to feed livestock Organizational strengthening, capacity building, and (using bagasse and stubble in livestock feed). education · Develop a sanitary calendar to control livestock. · Strengthening the Locuto community's social Resource management and conservation organizations, developing prevention, and response capabilities. · Perform soil conservation practices such as the · Build the organizational capacities of Locuto's construction of hillside terraces, fallowing, and Apóstol Juan Bautista Peasant Community and the crop rotation. settlements it comprises, promoting recognition of · Reforestation with native species in gullies, such as women's value in society. planting sangoyuyo to protect water sources. · Support the promotion of leadership and reinforce- ment in productive and commercial organizations. Education, information, organization, and social · Implement permanent environmental education practices programs, with a preventive focus, that promote sustainable management of the dry forest. · Promote sharing information with farmers from other places. Response organization and preparation · Recover and strengthen traditional social, eco- nomic, and cultural networks and practices that · Implementation of a community early warning contribute to the risk-reduction strategies in the system, incorporating local knowledge. community and the families (for instance, save the · Training and equipment for civil defense commit- seed in the Andean plateau, as a protection strategy tees. against extreme weather events). · Adequate and timely access to weather forecasts. Production Infrastructure Cabuyal The participants were asked about future measures that · Improve irrigation systems by strip cropping (the the community and its families could implement to field is divided into small 5-meter strips crosswise strengthen their ability to adapt and respond to climate to the slope of the field and ditches that run paral- events. They identified the following: lel to each strip are dug to irrigate the crops). Measures that Require Outside Assistance Measures the Community Could Take without Improvement of farm-production systems Outside Assistance Improvement of farming-production systems · Promote growing crops that are profitable crops and less sensitive to climate variability (resistant · Recover and spread cultivation of native food crops to water excess and shortage) such as sugarcane, (such as the pajuro and vitalicio bean, etc.) that pigeon peas, etc. were substituted by introduced species. 4 Environment Department Papers Appendix D -- Community-Specific Recommendations · Recover the use of true potato seed to produce po- · Promote further sensitizing of the population in tato for consumption and seed potato, as a strategy regard to climate change. for quick food production under crisis situations; · Train the population on disaster prevention and for which native potato seeds could be bought in response. Huancabamba and in the Andean plateau. · Strengthen social organizations to recover and · Facilitate market access to improve the price of build their capacity for collective action (solidarity, agricultural and livestock products. reciprocity, and community work practices) and · Disseminate agroecological farming practices,1 management. such as the use of organic fertilizers and pesticides. · Establish a link between the school and the major · Plan the agricultural calendar using local knowl- issues and aspirations of the community. edge and scientific forecasts. · Recover traditional knowledge on climate; study its Social infrastructure indicators and accuracy level. · Plan the housing sites where the houses will be Improvement of livestock-production systems located to reduce the risk of houses collapsing due to erosion and activation of watercourses during · Improve techniques for livestock-related activities, heavy rains. through changes in extensive and intensive (stalls) · Perform technical studies to ensure a safer site for raising systems, and planning livestock develop- the potable water system. ment based on the load capacity of the land. Production infrastructure · Improve livestock (meat and milk). · Appropriately manage livestock and pastures. · Improve and protect the irrigation system, dimin- · Request technical assistance to governmental ishing the extent of infiltration and its vulnerability agencies (Ministry of Agriculture). to landslides. · Perform sanitary control of livestock (Tupe in · Make studies on the water supply of the Ñoma cows). River available to the population, to use them as a basis for crop planning. Education, information, organization, and social · Upgrade and equip the panela sugarcane mills. practices Climate Change Series Appendix E -- Project Proposal for Follow-Up Activities in the Altiplano Background T These changes in physical conditions are becoming visible while economic pressures have reduced the he Bolivian and Peruvian altiplano is among diversity of agroecosystems (Valdivia, personal the regions in Latin America with the highest communication)--making them more vulnerable incidence of extreme and persistent rural poverty. to environmental change. In particular, the largely In a highly variable climate, livelihoods based indigenous communities (Quechua and Aymara) in the on farming practices are consistently challenged. altiplano are faced with the challenging task of adapting Frequent extreme events, including droughts, floods, their traditional livelihoods to these tremendous hail, and cold spells make it difficult for households socioeconomic and environment pressures. to accumulate assets and often reinforce conditions of poverty. From 1970­1999, estimates for Bolivia suggest that total accumulated economic losses associated with Development Objective natural disasters add up to 1 percent of annual GDP. The objective of the project is to increase the resilience In Peru, extreme poverty is especially widespread in the of rural livelihoods to climatic shocks by responding rural areas of the highlands and among the indigenous directly to capacity-building needs expressed in drawing population. This is particularly striking, as according on participatory assessments conducted by the World to INDECI, Puno in the Peruvian altiplano ranked Bank, University of Missouri, Center for International highest among all departments in terms of emergencies Potato Research (CIP), local nongovernmental reported from 2000 to 2004 linked to climatic hazards. organizations, and others in the altiplano of Bolivia Research by Valdivia, Quiroz and others has shown that and Peru. In accordance with these identified needs, prolonged and repeated climatic shocks have triggered indigenous communities will receive training in natural migration in Bolivia and Peru, transposing poverty to resource management and agricultural practices best urban areas. suited for the climate characteristics of the region. This This vulnerability is being exacerbated by includes education about environmentally suitable environmental and socioeconomic changes. Mountain crops, planting techniques and pest management, ecosystems are particularly exposed to climate change markets for sustainable crops, and institutional (IPCC 2001), as the effects of global warming are support mechanisms. The content of the training more pronounced at high altitudes. Significant will be informed by information from seasonal warming trends are already visible in the Andes, climate forecasts and spatial hazard-risk mapping for raising concerns about the effects on ecosystems and various climatic hazards, incorporating also historical water resources, and associated downstream effects for experiences and knowledge of the communities. The agricultural activities in the altiplano, which are already proposed project will develop training initiatives and under pressure from environmental degradation. expand these to communities in the highlands of Climate Change Series Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru Bolivia, as the exposure and vulnerabilities to climatic Expected Outputs and Results shocks in the Bolivian altiplano largely mirror the challenges faced in Peru and hence allow for a broader The key output, which directly aims at improving regional focus. development prospects, is the provision of practical training to communities for increasing the resilience to climatic shocks. The goal is to train a minimum of six Expected Contribution to Development communities in the Peruvian altiplano and in Bolivia. Outcomes/Results The project will consolidate local knowledge networks The seventh Millennium Development Goals and partnerships initiated during a previous World acknowledge the importance of environmental Bank trust­funded project in Peru and the research sustainability to the overarching objective of poverty activities of our collaborating partners in Bolivia. alleviation. In a 10-agency report, "Poverty and Climate The training will provide linkages between producer Change," led by the World Bank, the importance and expert knowledge systems; it is therefore conducted of addressing current and future climate risks for as a highly interactive process between researchers sustaining progress toward and beyond the MDGs. and communities. For wider regional use and The World Conference on Disaster Reduction and the replication of the approach, the following documents United Nations Framework Convention on Climate will be produced: i) Methodology on participatory Change called upon the international community to hazard-risk mapping, ii) methodology on converting address the links between disaster risk management, climate forecasts into information formats relevant adaptation to climate change, and development. to rural Andean communities, iii) report on risk- This link between development and environment is mitigating options in natural resource management particularly evident in the altiplano, where livelihoods and agricultural practices, iv) crossregional workshop are threatened by natural hazards and environmental (intended for optional third year of project) discussing degradation. The forthcoming Country Environmental natural resource management in marginal regions in Assessment for Peru highlights the high vulnerability Latin America, Africa, and Asia (focusing on countries of the altiplano to disaster risks and emphasizes the with related environmental challenges; envisioned general need for improving the risk management target countries include Ethiopia, Eritrea, Bhutan, framework. Climate-change projections further and Mongolia), and v) report on lessons learnt for reinforce this picture by exacerbating the pressure on building comprehensive risk-management strategies natural resources. for rural livelihoods exposed to natural hazards and environmental change (with an emphasis on Latin By developing practical risk management options America, but with a crosscomparison with projects in for rural livelihoods in the altiplano, the project other regions, drawing on workshop input). addresses community-level capacity-building needs, while generally contributing to an improved practical Key Performance Indicators understanding of how the resilience of development processes to exogenous shocks and global change can be Quantifiable indicators include i) the number of improved. communities trained (with the objective of improving linkages between producer and expert-knowledge systems, which promote the application of risk- 8 Environment Department Papers Appendix E -- Project Proposal for Follow-Up Activities in the Altiplano mitigating strategies by rural households), ii) practical processes, and iii) (long-term) improved resilience of guidance (reports and briefing notes) to the World targeted communities to climatic shocks, exemplified Bank and other development agencies supporting the by the ability to accumulate and develop assets, and the integration of risk mitigation into rural development reduced number of household-level disasters. Climate Change Series Appendix F -- Managing Climate Risks in Coastal Ecuador -- A Brief Comparison of Community Perspectives C oastal Ecuador's exposure to natural hazard is Community assessments led by Jorge Marcos and Pilar similar to the Northwestern part of Peru. The El Cornejo of Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents (ESPOL), covering eight communities in the Southern the dominant influence of inter-annual climate Manabi Province, Guayas Province and El Oro variability. During El Niño events, the peak monthly Province, yielded results which are largely comparable rainfall amount increases several fold in comparison to to the ones uncovered in Peru. normal years and the rainy season tends to be longer (see Figure). In addition, El Niño is associated with As in Piura, Peru, the communities have a clear extreme rainfall events that trigger destructive floods. understanding of El Niño, but not of La Niña. The ENSO influence is superimposed on a marked Communities associate El Niño with excessive rains intra-seasonal variability in coastal Ecuador. The and destructive floods. Only strong El Niño events amplitude in variability increases from North to South are recalled, as weak or moderate events are not being with a distinct rainy and dry season. distinguished from a strong rainy season. Hence, the Figure. Monthly Precipitation Averages and Totals Observed During El Niño years, Guayaquil, Ecuador 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 (mm) 700.0 Monthly Avg. 600.0 1982-83-84 500.0 1986-87-88 Precipitation 400.0 300.0 1997-98-99 200.0 100.0 0.0 1 2 3 ear Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun ear Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb May Apr May Jun earY Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July-Y July-Y July- Month Note: The figure shows how monthly precipitation totals generally increase significantly and the rainy season lengthens during El Niño years (i.e., 1982/83, 1986/97, 1997/98) in comparison to the long-term monthly averages observed over 30+ years in Guayaquil (sea level, Latitude: 02°09', Longitude: 79°53'W). While El Niño events magnify the rainy season, each event has its own distinct characteristics depending in part on the timing of the onset and cessation relative to seasonal patterns. Climate Change Series 0 Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development -- Perspectives from Communities in Peru period between individual El Niño events in the eyes of labor. There was a wide-spread perception among the communities is longer than the return period of El communities that the diurnal temperature cycle has Niño events, when using scientific classifications. become more extreme over recent years and the rainy season less reliable. Where access to irrigation is not There is no clear understanding of La Niña as a available, traditional water collection structures can concept. In fact the term can be misleading. La Niña help reduce vulnerabilities against drought conditions. is sometimes understood by community members as a more extreme El Niño. As a female version of El Niño In contrast to the assessments in Piura, traditional water ("the boy child"), it is associated with more "crying" storage structures, known as Albarradas or Jagüeyes are and hence more rainfall. This interpretation runs used by communities to minimize the effects of floods contrary to the scientific definition, where La Niña and droughts. Albarradas are u-shape detention ponds, represents the cold phase of ENSO and is linked to which are build on semi-permeable surfaces. During drier than normal conditions in coastal Ecuador. In rainfall events, run-off collects in these structures and addition, there was a wide-spread perception among recharges the aquifer, which can then be tapped during community members that the diurnal temperature cycle dry years through the construction of dry wells. Since has become more extreme and the seasons have become the water percolates through the soil and collects below less reliable. ground, evaporation rates are reduced. As a result the excessive rainfall during strong El Niño years is turned Communities are particularly vulnerable to climate into an asset, helping communities to manage the dry related impacts on human health, infrastructure and periods. agriculture. El Niño events are associated with an increase in water and vector borne diseases, such as There is archeological evidence that Albarradas malaria, dengue and cholera. Given the pervasive have been constructed by the local populations as absence of adequate health facilities, returning migrant an adaptation strategy for over 3000 years. While works represent an additional health risk. Floods Albarradas were in use in several of the communities triggered by excessive rainfall events have led to visited in Ecuador, no such structures were discovered destruction of houses, roads and bridges. Communities in the community assessments in Peru. The reasons highlighted the difficulty of accessing the markets for this are unclear, but may be linked to the different during El Niño events and years with strong rainfall. country histories and land-use policies. As the This constrains the coping options of households, as knowledge of the maintenance and with it the use they cannot sell livestock or acquire new seeds. The of these ancient human-made structures is fading, it loss of infrastructure has also interrupted of schooling may be worthwhile to consider whether this trend time of their children. Agriculture and livestock should be reversed and examined in the broader during excessively wet periods is affected through regional applicability as a community level alternative destruction of planting sites, increase in plant pests to technological interventions for managing climate and animal diseases. Medium-term effects of El Niño variability. for agriculture can be positive as the environment is revitalized and planting areas can be expanded. The scope of recommendations, which emerged from the community meetings and discussions with Given the heavy dependency of livelihoods on government stakeholders, echo the issues of the Peru agricultural activities, failed or erratic rainy seasons assessments. These include (i) the improvement of lead to the depletion of assets or force members of climate information formats through a stronger households to migrate to urban centers in search of engagement of communities and recognition of local 0 Environment Department Papers Appendix F -- Managing Climate Risks in Coastal Ecuador -- A Brief Comparison of Community Perspectives knowledge systems, (ii) strengthening awareness Fenomeno del El Niño (CIIFEN), Escuela Superior of health hazards in relation to climatic events and Politecnica del Litoral (ESPOL), Instituto Nacional improving access to preventive measures, (iii) support de Meteorología e Hidrologia (INAMHI), Instituto the maintenance of water harvesting and storage Nacional de Pesca (INP), Ministerio de Agricultura structures, (iv) research and training on natural resource and Ministerio del Ambiente. The recommendations management, (v) sustainable use of the tropical dry of the community assessments are suited for a range forest, and (vi) improved access to credit, where of community driven development (CDD) or micro- payment schemes take into account the timing of projects. These could be used as a vehicle to further agricultural practices. strengthen the linkage between scientific advances, institutional awareness, and local needs. A range of regional and national institutions, government ministries and universities are engaged in This brief summary is based on submissions by, and research and policy initiatives aimed at strengthening personal communication with, J. Marcos and P. climate risk management efforts in Ecuador, including Cornejo, ESPOL. the Centro Internacional de Investigaciones de Climate Change Series 0 Environment Department T H E W O R L D B A N K 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone: 202-473-3641 Facsimile: 202-477-0565 Printed on recycled, environmentally-fiendly paper stock, using soy inks.