54235 Water Working Notes Water Working Notes Note No. 24, April 2010 CLIMATE CHANGE AND URBAN WATER UTILITIES: CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES Alexander Danilenko Eric Dickson Michael Jacobsen Water Working Notes are published by the Water Sector Board of the Sustainable Development Network of the World Bank Group. Working Notes are lightly edited documents intended to elicit discussion on topical issues in the water sector. Comments should be e-mailed to the authors. Table of ConTenTs Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................................................................................. vi Abbreviations and Acronyms .........................................................................................................................................................................vii Executive Summary.................................................................................................................................................................................................. ix 1. Climate Change and Water Resources .................................................................................................................................................. 1 2. Climate Change and Water Utilities ........................................................................................................................................................ 5 2.1 Fundamental Challenges on Water Utilities ...................................................................................................................5 2.2 The Climate Change Challenge .............................................................................................................................................6 3. Framework for Analysis ................................................................................................................................................................................. 11 3.1 Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment....................................................................................................11 3.2 Mapping Utility Vulnerability ................................................................................................................................................12 3.3 Preparing for Adaptation .........................................................................................................................................................12 3.4 Regrets Analyses for Climate Change Adaptation...................................................................................................13 4. Framework for Adaptation ......................................................................................................................................................................... 17 4.1 Climate Monitoring .....................................................................................................................................................................17 4.2 Water Availability ..........................................................................................................................................................................18 4.3 Actions to Protect Water Quality ........................................................................................................................................28 5. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 33 5.1 The Role of the World Bank ....................................................................................................................................................34 Annex 1: Analysis of Questionnaire........................................................................................................................................................... 35 Annex 2: Utilities Taking Action.................................................................................................................................................................... 43 A.2.1 Public Utilities Board, Singapore .........................................................................................................................................43 A.2.2 Empresa Metropolitana de Abastecimiento y Saneamiento de Aguas de Sevilla (EMASESA): Seville, Spain .........................................................................................................................................................44 A.2.3 Seattle Public Utility: Seattle, USA ......................................................................................................................................44 A.2.4 Melbourne Water: Melbourne, Australia ........................................................................................................................48 A.2.5 City of Windhoek, Namibia.....................................................................................................................................................51 A.2.6 New York City: New York, USA ..............................................................................................................................................53 A.2.7 Manila Water Company: Manila, Philippines ...............................................................................................................55 A.2.8 Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (ISKI): Istanbul, Turkey..........................................................57 Annex 3: Searching For Solutions ............................................................................................................................................................... 59 A.3.1 Water and Sanitation Agency: Rawalpindi, Pakistan ..............................................................................................59 A.3.2 Office National de l'Eau et de l'Assainissement (ONEA): Burkina Faso .....................................................................................................................................................................................59 A.3.3 Nairobi Water Company: Nairobi, Kenya........................................................................................................................60 iii Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities A.3.4 Servicio de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado (SEDAPAL): Lima, Peru .................................................................61 A.3.5 Dhaka Water Supply & Sewerage Authority (DWASA): Dhaka, Bangladesh ............................................62 A.3.6 ROSVODOKANAL: Russia/Ukraine ......................................................................................................................................62 A.3.7 Tianjin Water Company: Tianjin, China............................................................................................................................63 Glossary of terms...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 65 References ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 69 Boxes Box 1.1: Groundwater Pollution in Hanoi, Vietnam ......................................................................................................................2 Box 1.2: Groundwater overexploitation in Jakarta, Indonesia ...............................................................................................3 Box 2.1: Extreme Vulnerability of Dhaka, Bangladesh.................................................................................................................5 Box 3.1: Water Utility Climate Alliance, USA ...................................................................................................................................15 Box 4.1: Monitoring for Climate Change .........................................................................................................................................18 Box 4.2: Ofwat, United Kingdom ..........................................................................................................................................................18 Box 4.3: New York City Water Conservation Program ..............................................................................................................21 Box 4.4: Sydney Water Conservation Program .............................................................................................................................24 Box 4.5: Roofwater Harvesting ...............................................................................................................................................................25 Box 4.6: Nairobi Water Company ..........................................................................................................................................................26 Box 4.7: Water reclamation, Windhoek, Namibia ........................................................................................................................27 Box 4.8: Desalination and Wastewater Treatment in Melbourne .....................................................................................27 Box A.2.1: Potential Climate Change Related Impacts, Melbourne ................................................................................49 Figures Figure 1.1: Estimated Groundwater Withdrawal of Ogallala Aquifer.................................................................................3 Figure 1.2: Groundwater Depletion: Rawalpindi, Pakistan.......................................................................................................3 Figure 2.1: Dynamics of Water Use 1900­2025...............................................................................................................................6 Figure 2.2: Areas of Physical and Economic Water Scarcity ....................................................................................................8 Figure 3.1: Definition of Vulnerability (Graphical).......................................................................................................................11 Figure 3.2: Mapping Utility Vulnerability..........................................................................................................................................12 Figure 4.1: Astana, Kazakhstan: State Communal Enterprise Astana Su Arnasy Sewer System Blockages (blockages/km/yr) .............................................................................................................................19 Figure 4.2: Influence of Climate Change on NRW .....................................................................................................................20 Figure 4.3: Effects of Water Metering on Residential Consumption in Chisinau, Moldova (1996­2008 ......................................................................................................................................21 Figure 4.4: Water Tariffs and Consumption in Budapest ........................................................................................................22 Figure A.1.1: Location of Participating Water Utilities ..............................................................................................................35 Figure A.1.2: Services Provided by Water Utilities.......................................................................................................................37 Figure A.1.3: Cities Witnessing Climatic Events............................................................................................................................37 Figure A.1.4: Perception of Exposure to Climate Change .....................................................................................................38 iv Table of Contents Figure A.1.5: Exposure to Potential Climate Change Impacts ............................................................................................39 Figure A.1.6: Resources Used to Estimate Climate Change Impacts ..............................................................................39 Figure A.1.7: Actions Taken By Utilities to Address Climate Change ..............................................................................40 Figure A.1.8: Stakeholders Involvement in Climate Change Discussions....................................................................41 Figure A.1.9: Barriers to Action ...............................................................................................................................................................41 Figure A.2.1: Reservoir Volume, Seville: 1991­2006 ..................................................................................................................45 Figure A.2.2: Water Demand and Supply Options, Seattle Public Utilities ..................................................................46 Figure A.2.3: Change in Peak Season Consumption with Climate Change Scenarios ........................................46 Figure A.2.4: Change in Water Supply with Climate Change Scenarios Plus Tier 1 Response........................47 Figure A.2.5: Increased Storage at Chester Morse Lake ..........................................................................................................47 Figure A.2.6: Lowered Drawdown at South Fork Tolt Reservoir.........................................................................................47 Figure A.2.7: Melbourne Water Storage Since 1992..................................................................................................................49 Figure A.2.8: Melbourne's Communication Campaign ...........................................................................................................50 Tables Table 1.1: Low Natural Renewable Water Resources in the Middle East & North Africa .......................................3 Table 4.1: Non Revenue Water of Participating Utilities (%) .................................................................................................20 Table 4.2: Indoor Residential End Uses of Water .........................................................................................................................23 Table 4.3: Technical, Financial & Institutional Complexities..................................................................................................29 Table A.1.1: Participating Water Utilities ...........................................................................................................................................36 Table A.2.1: Melbourne Water Projected Climate Change Impacts ................................................................................50 v aCknowleDgemenTs This report was prepared as part of a broader program of ternational workshop with participation from twenty inter- work addressing climate change adaptation in the water national water utilities which provided valuable insight and sector undertaken by the Energy, Transport, and Water De- contribution to this report. Particular gratitude is extended partment of the World Bank and the Water and Sanitation to Nancy Ahern (Seattle Public Utilities), Bruce Rhodes (Mel- Program. The report was prepared by a Bank team com- bourne Water), Colonel (R) Islam Ul-Haque (Rawalpindi Wa- prised of Alexander Danilenko, Eric Dickson and Michael ter and Sanitation Authority), Fernando Arlandis and María Jacobsen, supported by AECOM International Development Fernanda Richmond (Canal de Isabel II, Madrid), Piet du (Surendra Bhatta, Rachel MacCleery and Hoai Huynh) and Pisani (City of Windhoek), and Modesta María Hoyuela Diaz Global Water Intelligence (Ankit Patel). A number of Bank (EMASESA, Seville) for their contributions. staff provided guidance and contributions at various stages including Abel Mejia, Vahid Alavian, Andreas Rohde, Ven- Approving Manager: Julia Bucknall, ETWWA tura Bengoechea, Manuel Marino, Michael Webster, Joseph Gadek, Aldo Baetti and Philippe Marin. 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All other queries on part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, boundaries. 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202-522- 2422, e-mail pubrights@worldbank.org. vi abbreviaTions anD aCronyms AWWA American Water Works Association ML Megalitres CAN Central Areas of Namibia MLD Million Liters Per Day CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Re- NCCS National Climate Change Strategy search Organisation NRW Non-Revenue Water DAF Dissolved Air Flotation NWC Nairobi Water Company DMA Dhaka Metropolitan Area NYC New York City DRWH Domestic Roofwater Harvesting NYCDEP New York City Department of Environmental DSPM Decision Support Planning Methods Protection DWASA Dhaka Water Supply and Sewage Authority ONEA Office National de l'Eau et de l'Assainissement EIB European Investment Bank PUB Public Utilities Board EMASESA Empresa Metropolitana de Abastecimiento y SEDAPAL Servicio de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado Saneamiento de Aguas de Sevilla de Lima GCM Global Circulation Models SPU Seattle Public Utilities GWRP Goreangab Water Reclamation Plant STP Sewage Treatment Plant HA Hectares TDS Total Dissolved Solids IDF Intensity-Duration-Frequency UARL Unavoidable Annual Real Loss IPART Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal USD United States Dollar IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change UWSS Urban Water Supply and Sanitation ISKI Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration WCT Water Conservation Tax IUWM Integrated Urban Water Management WRMA Water Resources Management Authority KFW German Development Bank WSAA Water Supply Association of Australia LPCD Liters Per Capita Per Day WUCA Water Utility Climate Alliance vii exeCuTive summary The impact of climate change is increasingly important cesses are entities such as the Water Utility Climate Alliance to the design of infrastructure investment programs. (WUCA) of the United States and the Water Supply Associa- Growing evidence indicates that the water sector will not tion of Australia (WSAA), which are respectively funding only be affected by climate change, but that it will deliver research that identifies approaches to develop decision many of its impacts through floods, droughts, or extreme support systems for utilities. rainfall events. Water resources will change in both quan- tity and quality, and water, storm water and wastewater Adaptation actions taken by utilities are often of an ad facilities' infrastructure will face greater risk of damage hoc nature, despite the risk of climate change. While caused by storms, floods and droughts. The effect of the certain actions being taken by urban water utilities may climate change will manifest from difficulties in operations help to reduce their exposure to climate change, there is an to disrupted services and increased cost of the water and evident need to address climate vulnerability more system- wastewater services. Governments, urban planners, and atically. Some of the measures currently being implement- water managers are therefore re-examining development ed primarily address short-term concerns. For many utilities processes for municipal water and wastewater services and longer term actions may often appear to be unaffordable are adapting strategies to incorporate climate change into or unfeasible given perceived complexity, a lack of scientific infrastructure design, capital investment projects, service information relevant to the urban environment, or a lack of provision planning, and operation and maintenance. coordination with other authorities related to issues such as watershed protection, resource protection and flooding. Variability and uncertainty challenge water utilities in their daily operations and long term planning. Yet Approaches implemented by utilities that are already many utilities are only now beginning to assess the impact addressing climate change can assist others formulate that climate change will have on their water sources and their own strategic options. Climate change intensifies what the technical, financial, operational and institutional existing challenges currently faced by utilities, and increases implications will be. The challenge is compounded by the economic pressure to improve existing operational proce- fact that there are pressing needs, such as expanding cover- dures. This will require that utilities begin to consider the age and high levels of non-revenue water, that compete wider implications of climate change on water resources with developing appropriate climate change adaptation and its influence on service delivery. Traditional approaches strategies, especially in low and middle-income countries. to urban water operations and investment planning have Indeed weak and financially challenged water utilities are in many cases not yet taken the interdependent nature of still struggling with old and persistent problems of water water resources and urban delivery systems into account. management, coverage and efficiency issues in the delivery Climate change requires addressing this interdependency of services. so that utilities give greater attention to water resources and source protection, in addition to improving operational An important difference between financially viable utilities performance of existing infrastructure. Utilities are likely to and those that are struggling is well performing utilities benefit from broadening their traditional perspective of are now beginning to identify strategic options to address operations, and incorporate principles of integrated urban climate change concerns based on monitoring, analysis and water management (IUWM). the use of climate models. Leading utilities from a number of nations are adopting a mixture of scientific approaches in By adopting IUWM utilities are able to consider the in- conjunction with institutional reforms to assist in defining teraction between water resources, infrastructure, op- responses to climate associated risks. Assisting such pro- erations and planning. This comprehensive perspective on ix Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities operations places a utility in an improved position to consid- The World Bank, as a multilateral institution with con- er how factors outside of their traditional operations such as vening power, stands to play a role. The implications of spatial development, pollution control, and solid waste and climate change may strongly affect the development im- storm water management undertake may influence service pact of World Bank projects in the urban water supply and delivery. It also serves as a strategic entry point for preparing sanitation sector and similarly reduce a nation's capacity to climate vulnerability assessments of a utility's systems. recuperate economic and financial losses incurred from re- lated impacts. In the short term the Bank is well positioned Such assessments allow for estimating the scope and in- to facilitate knowledge exchange and disseminate emerging tensity of potential impacts on performance as a result of best practices with the objective of strengthening urban climate change. On the basis of vulnerability assessments, water utilities' capacity to undertake climate vulnerability utilities are better able to analyze the extent to which system assessments, improve monitoring of technical and financial components are exposed to climate change against their performance, and the preparation of climate action plans. operation and value, and identify adaptation measures that As the body of knowledge grows in its client countries, the reduce potential exposure and improve resilience. Undertak- Bank is well positioned to support utilities addressing climate ing this form of analysis can be used as an important input change through North-South and South-South partnerships. to an analytical framework that supports prioritizing and quantifying costs associated with each identified adaptation This report is part of a larger World Bank effort that seeks option that considers technical complexity, associated cost, to provide analytical and strategic assistance to Bank staff institutional complexity, and operational implementation. and utilities in client countries as they begin to consider the implications of climate change on water resources. The key Each adaptation option should be screened for a financial objectives of this document are to: viability using the utility's established evaluation processes for investment planning. `No-regret' investments are worth · Improve understanding and awareness of the opera- doing anyway, no matter what the eventual climate change tional implications of climate change on the provision stress may be on a particular system. Such actions consider of water and wastewater services by urban utilities; climate change but do not make it the primary factor in · Present adaptation actions conducted at the utility decision making. `Climate justified' investments are benefi- level for inspiration; cial only if climate change impacts actually do occur and · Establish an analytical framework to assist Bank staff the overall benefits of taking a specific action exceed the and client countries' utility managers to identify and pri- marginal cost following a cost-benefit analysis. Undertaking oritize potential climate change adaptation measures; such analyses can serve as a major input into the formula- · Assess the feasibility of implementing adaptation mea- tion of climate action plans for short and medium terms. sures based on a set of criteria Climate action plans can be complemented through This report is structured as follows: Chapter 1 provides an targeted communication with consumers and improved overview of the role that climate change will have on urban coordination among municipal authorities regarding the water utilities and highlights the often competing priorities potential impact of climate change on water resources and that water managers are faced with in developing countries; services. This may include regular publications of brochures Chapter 2 describes the relationship between climate change and booklets, announcing precipitation and river levels, or and water resources as they influence water service provision; storage volume of reservoirs. In the short to medium term, Chapter 3 presents a framework for analysis of vulnerability cities with similar climatic risks may benefit from intensified and adaptive capacity of water providers; Chapters 4 presents knowledge exchange of institutional and managerial ex- a framework for adaptation actions. Annexes contain detailed perience on addressing climate change, recording and dis- graphs and statistics taken from the international workshop seminating impacts, and analyzing the cost efficiency and held in Madrid, Spain in January of 2009 and utility specific operational effectiveness of adopted adaptation measures. case studies which are highlighted throughout the report. x 1. ClimaTe Change anD waTer resourCes Climate change will affect the water resource base for many Lakes and Man-Made Reservoirs. A number of locations water utilities. Higher temperatures and reduced precipita- have become considerably drier in the last decades. This has tion levels will cause shortages in available supply due to impacted cities as diverse as Examples and Seville, Spain, slower replenishment rates of underground water resources Windhoek, Namibia and Melbourne, Australia (see details in and/or reduced availability of surface water. Rising sea- Annex 2) as well as Ankara, Turkey, Mumbai, India and a large water levels and inland flooding will cause land inundation number of other cities. Climate change is threatening unique and blockages in natural drainage structures. These effects biota, as well their sustainability as the sources of water for will be even more difficult to manage for those water utili- municipalities. In India, for example, where most lakes those ties that are unprepared and/or financially weak. supply water to Indian cities are heavily dependent on mon- soon rainfall this has been shown large fluctuations in recent General agreement among various climate change mod- years, even by historical standards. On 7 July 2009, it was re- els suggests that surface water runoff will decrease by ported that authorities in Mumbai had been forced to reduce 10 percent to 30 percent in the Mediterranean, southern water supplies by 30% as the city experienced one of the Africa, the western USA, and northern Mexico. The impact worst water shortages in its history. The cuts affect supplies to of climate change will lead to variations in the seasonality hundreds of thousands of households as well as hospitals and of river flows especially where winter precipitation comes hotels. The city corporation urged citizens to save water and as snow; rapid melting of glaciers and snow will lead to use it sparingly as reserves from three lakes are estimated to an increase in winter flow and thus a decrease in summer only contain approximately two and a half months of supply. flow. The European Alps, Himalayas, North America, Andes in Latin America, Russia, Scandinavia and Baltic regions Ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions. The disruption will face this phenomenon [IPCC, 2007]. Due to melting of local hydrological patterns places ecosystems in arid and glaciers in the Himalaya-Hindu-Kush region nearly one bil- semi-arid regions at risk. Consequently, subsistence agri- lion people in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and China will be culture and rural livelihoods are highly vulnerable. Coastal affected. Glaciers in the Andes have shrunk by 20 percent areas and deltas are vulnerable to an increase in sea levels, since 1970, which creates serious implications for water flooding, storm surges, and stronger winds, displacing the resources and hydro-power generation in countries like population in those areas. Of the world's 27 megacities, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Chile and Argentina [Ver- which have populations of 10 million and greater), 18 are gara, 2007]. thought to be vulnerable to these effects [UN-Water, 2009]. Wetlands in major river basins will suffer from large scale Increased precipitation. More frequent and intense rain sedimentation, land-use conversion, logging and human events will contribute to flash floods, accumulation of rain- intervention. Coastal and estuarine wetland habitats may water in poorly-drained environments, decreased storage be destroyed if sea-level rise exceeds the rate of vertical due to siltation, and coastal floods caused by extreme tidal sediment accretion and inland migration is not possible. Or- and wave events. Over the next 100 years, flooding is likely ganic wetlands are highly vulnerable to even small changes to become more common or more intense in many areas, in ground water level. Drying, decrease in wetland size, and especially in low-lying coastal sites or in zones that currently conversion to uplands can be expected for most freshwater experience high rainfall. Flood risk dynamics have various wetlands where precipitation decreases or remains steady social, environmental and technical drivers and have multi- while temperatures are increased because these wetlands ple impacts in terms of services disruption, health and dam- are very sensitive to subtle changes in precipitation and age to infrastructure. For example, on 26 July 2005, Mumbai groundwater level. [IPCC, 2007]. received 94 cm of rain in a single day, breaking a 100 year 1 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities record. The rainfall caused an unprecedented flood which ter magnifies inherent salts such as total dissolved solids affected 20 million people, caused some 1,000 deaths and a (TDS), fluorides and chlorides. The problem of groundwater financial loss of an estimated USD 1 billion. One of the prin- over-exploitation is self-limiting owing to higher pumping cipal reasons for the disaster was that the rainfall was ac- cost, deteriorating quality and treatment cost, and subse- companied by high tides and waves, which blocked storm quent reduction of the resource. water drainage systems [ActionAid 2005]. A detailed case of increased precipitation in Seattle is presented in Annex 2. The use of `fossil water' is also prevalent in countries includ- ing China, Egypt, Libya, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan, Groundwater. In arid and semi-arid regions, with poor Mexico and the United States. Fossil water, also known as access to surface water, groundwater plays a major role paleowater, refers to underground water reservoirs that in meeting domestic as well as irrigation demands. It is have been geologically sealed and cannot be replenished also essential for providing informal and private access to due to their origin. In the United States eight states in the populations not served by municipal water utilities. It is esti- mid-West extract sizeable quantities of fossil water from the mated by the United Nations suggests that 2 billion people Ogallala Aquifer (see Figure 1.1). This aquifer supplies 82% of depend on groundwater. Since the 1970s groundwater use the drinking water for these states and approximately 30% has helped in achieving food sufficiency and drinking water of the water for crop irrigation. It is estimated that this aqui- security in many Asian and Middle Eastern countries. But fer will be empty in 25 years. a lack of proper planning, ineffective legislation and poor governance has jeopardized many groundwater aquifers Similarly, in Rawalpindi, Pakistan considerable groundwater [CA, 2007]. Climate change is expected to reduce surface depletion has been observed which is primarily due to di- water supplies and result in a greater reliance on ground- minishing recharge rates. Intense rainfall and quick runoff water particularly in semi-arid and arid regions. At the same are causal factors coupled with increased extraction that time, replenishment of groundwater may be hindered have resulted in groundwater tables depleting by approxi- due to hydro-climatic changes and demographic, socio- mately 2­3 meters per year (see the Figure 1.2). economic and institutional factors that will bring in more challenges for sustainable groundwater management. The discussion above demonstrates how climate change affects the water sources that are critical for supplying ur- Reduced precipitation and continued abstraction will affect ban water service providers and highlights the challenges replenishment rates of groundwater resulting in declining that utilities must respond to. Given that the effects of cli- water tables if the net recharge rate is exceeded. Table 1 be- mate change will be felt over the long-term, utilities should low presents a list of countries with the lowest groundwater consider phased and coordinated adaptation measures replenishment rates. Often over-exploitation of groundwa- appropriate to their own technical, financial and institu- box 1.1: groundwater Pollution in hanoi, vietnam Groundwater is the main source of supply for the city of Hanoi. Presently, approximately 500,000 m3 of groundwater is being withdrawn daily and that amount could reach 1 million m3 per day by 2010 if extraction rates continue unchecked. The pump- ing of large volumes of groundwater negatively impacts the water table, enlarges the cone of depression, and contributes to land subsidence. The quality of groundwater supplies is also affected by the city's poor sewerage and drainage systems. With less than half the population of the city connected to formal sewerage system, rivers and lakes in the Hanoi area are severely polluted by domestic and industrial wastewater which infiltrate the city's aquifers. The pollutants include nitrogen compounds, bio- logical and organic matter and toxic elements such as arsenic and mercury. Wastewater management, as in many other cities around the globe, remains one of the most significant challenges for Hanoi in the face of the city's rapid demographic and economic growth. Source: Van Dan and Thi Dzung 2003 2 Climate Change and Water Resources tional capacity. The following chapter presents an analytical adaptation actions through an integrated urban water man- framework that seeks to provide guidance to utilities on agement lens. assessing their own climate vulnerabilities and suggests Table 1.1: Low Natural Renewable Water Resources in Figure 1.1: Estimated Groundwater Withdrawal of the Middle East & North Africa Ogallala Aquifer Resource M3/ Withdrawal M3/ capita/year capita/year Kuwait 9.9 306.0 UAE 55.5 896.0 Libya 108.5 870.0 Saudi Arabia 110.6 1056.0 Jordan 169.4 255.0 Yemen 205.9 253.0 Israel 265.0 287.0 Oman 363.6 658.0 Algeria 460.0 181.0 Tunisia 576.5 312.0 Source: GWI, Desalination Markets: A Global Industry Forecast, 2007 Figure 1.2: Groundwater Depletion: Rawalpindi, Pakistan 450 400 Source: National Atlas of the United States, 2005 350 300 box 1.2: groundwater overexploitation Depth in ft 250 in Jakarta, indonesia 200 Overexploitation of Jakarta's groundwater is resulting in 150 land subsidence that often causes increased bursting of wa- 100 ter pipes. This also contributes to increased flood risk, with the most affected being areas inhabited by low-income 50 households. In addition to increasing salt water intrusion, 0 the infiltration of chemical and microbiological pollutants Liaqat Gawal Sattelite Sattelite Babu Mulpur has resulted in 65% of the city's groundwater being unsuit- Bagh Mandi Town Town Ali able for human use according to the Indonesian Ministry No.1 No.2 Dhoke of Environment. The Jakarta Mining Department has com- Location of Tube well mitted to controlling further exploitation of groundwater in Water Depth 1960 Water Depth 2005 order to abate continued land subsidence. Source: Water and Sanitation Agency Rawalpindi Source: Asian Development Bank, 2007 3 2. ClimaTe Change anD waTer uTiliTies Even without climate change, urban water utilities are faced countries where limited financial resources, often stemming with challenges to ensuring sustainable service delivery in from low efficiency and subsidized tariffs, reduce the abil- many cities. In addition accurate forecasting of supply and ity of water utilities to address priorities to improve service demand levels, some of the more fundamental challenges delivery. An example of this is Rawalpindi, Pakistan where at on water utilities include growing urban populations, aging present 70 percent of the current population is served ei- infrastructure, and increasing competition for water resources. ther through the piped network or tanker delivery. However only 35 percent of the service area is covered by a sewerage system and none of the collected sewage is treated. The 2.1 fundamental Challenges city is witnessing a population growth of 4.29 percent per on water utilities annum. Connecting 100 percent of the population with wa- ter supply and sewage would need significant investments, Urbanization Pressure. A demographic shift is taking which is currently beyond the financial capacity of the place at a remarkable pace across the developing world water utility as well as additional technical expertise [Pintz that will likely see another two billion residents added to and Johnson, 2006]. A similar case of Dhaka, Bangladesh is urban areas in the next twenty years, with the urban popu- presented in Box 2.1. lations of South Asia and Africa doubling during that time. As a city's population grows there is a need to expand the Outdated Infrastructure. Water utilities' networks and in- capacity of existing water sources to meet the increasing frastructure require proper maintenance and rehabilitation. demand. In many cases cities have to access supplemental If these measures are not effectively and routinely imple- sources of supply (ground water, desalination, conveyance mented, the operational life of water infrastructure and from distant areas) in order to sustain residential, industrial networks may be exceeded and result in disproportionate and agricultural consumption levels. and perpetually increasing maintenance costs. Given that utilities often lack the financial capacity to invest in sub- Increased urban water demand generates pressure on exist- stantial infrastructure replacement programs, the result is ing infrastructure and demands substantial investments for that utilities continue to operate fully depreciated assets for expansion. The problem is even more severe in developing 20­50 years after the point when replacement should have box 2.1: extreme vulnerability of Dhaka, bangladesh The Dhaka Metropolitan Area (DMA) is one of the fastest growing megacities in the world with a total population estimated at over 12 million. Of this, about 8.6 million people live in the formal city and about 4 million in slums. The elevation in Dhaka ranges between 2 and 13 meters above sea level implying that even a slight rise in sea level would likely engulf large parts of the city. High urban growth rates and urban population densities make Dhaka susceptible to human-induced and environmental disasters. Inland flooding due to extreme rainfall events and coastal flooding caused by sea level rise are expected to be more frequent as a result of climate change. The problems associated with recurrent flooding are compounded by poor quality housing and overcrowding as nearly 60 percent of the city's slums have poor or no drainage. Water supplies also become contaminated during floods, as pipes in slum areas are likely to be damaged or to leak. The situation worsens when floodwater in slums mixes with raw sewage and breeds water-borne diseases. Source: UN-Habitat, 2008 5 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities occurred (multiple cases of Russia, Ukraine and countries Figure 2.1: Dynamics of Water Use 1900­2025 of the former USSR). An additional complication arises from World growing rates of urbanization and a lack of coordination 3200 and planning across government bodies that leads to new Assessment 2800 construction reliant on already outdated networks that can- Water nwithdrawal, km3 not and should not support expansion of demand for water 2400 Forecast and wastewater services (see Box 4.1). 2000 1600 The Nairobi Water Company faces challenges with the city's system that was originally built in 1913 with a system 1200 capacity of 13.5 million m³ per year intended to supply 800 about 200,000 people. With the city's growth to its current 400 population, estimated at 4 million people, the system's cur- 0 rent capacity of 88.9 million m³ per year is proving to be 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 overstretched. In addition, nearly ten years of stagnant tar- Agricultural use Industrial use iffs between 1999 and 2009 have prevented the utility from Municipal use Reservoirs allocating needed financial resources to emerging priorities. Source: Igor A. Shiklomanov, State Hydrological Institute, Russia The recent (2009) food crisis Kenya is experiencing and the for UNESCO International Hydrological Programme (IHP), 1999 global financial crises is placing additional financing con- straints on the Government and limiting its capacity to sup- port the water company. water resources become scarce. In response to the decade Nairobi Water finds its capacity to begin addressing climate long drought in the Murray Darling Basin of Australia, for change highly limited amidst decreasing surface water sup- example, farmers have had their water allocations drasti- plies, increasing competition from farming, increasing water cally cut in part to reallocate necessary resources to the city demand from a rising population, the need to improve of Adelaide which relies on the Murray River for up to 90 services to an estimated 1.6 million people living in slums, percent of its water supply during periods of low rainfall. poor infrastructure, stagnant tariffs, floods and droughts. In other cases such as Nairobi mentioned above, the issue However since many of the measures to address its current has yet to be comprehensively addressed and resolved. problems, such as improved demand management, inte- In all cases, the increased competition for water resources gration of water resource considerations for Nairobi with between urban water utilities and agricultural stakehold- that of upstream population and agriculture as well as im- ers will result in service providers and local government proved drainage may also increase the resilience of Nairobi authorities facing greater scrutiny insofar as their operations water to climate change, the utility may consider to con- and policy measures being implemented to improve water sider climate change systematically as part of its program of management under climate change. measures.. Competition for water resources. Over the last century 2.2 The Climate Change Challenge the world's agriculture water use grew fivefold in order to satisfy rising food demand. Global water withdrawal in 2025 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (see Figure 2.1) is projected to grow by 22 percent above has projected that average global temperatures could rise 1995 withdrawal to 5,240 km3. Notably in developing coun- in the range of 1.1 to 6.4°C by the end of the 21st century, tries it will be 27 percent, while in developed countries it which would be 1.8 to 4.0°C higher than 1980­2000 aver- will be 11 percent [Rosegrant et. al., 2002]. In some cases cit- age temperature. The most likely impacts of temperature ies are given priority over agriculture and other users when increase are a rise in sea levels, and more frequent and 6 Climate Change and Water Utilities intense extreme weather events including droughts and data which is largely accepted to be no longer sufficient to floods [IPCC, 2007]. These forecasted changes will affect project changing precipitation and run-off patterns, and water availability and both short and long term operations their impact on the quality and quantity of water resources. of urban water supply and sanitation systems. In the case of Annex 1 presents the analysis of an internationally distribut- water and wastewater utilities, higher temperatures and re- ed questionnaire to 20 utilities. Each reported experiencing duced precipitation levels will cause shortages in available climatic events that have prompted the utility to begin dis- supply due to slower replenishment rates of underground cussions and analysis of the influence that climate change water resources and/or reduced availability of surface water. will have on their operations. It also describes the actions Please see Annex 1 that presents experience of the utilities taken by the utilities to address climate change challenges. and their perception and exposure to climatic events. Climate change related extreme events may result in short- Water service providers currently face a number of chal- run reductions in water supply, and if unplanned for cause lenges from the external environment. Global water utilities to implement water conservation measures and consumption increased six-fold in the 20th century, more possibly make use of unpopular demand management than twice the rate of population growth. It is expected actions such as water rationing and intermittent supply. that consumption levels will continue to grow as a result This type of operational approach is costly to a utility; in- of expanding industrialization and urbanization processes, termittent supply and associated hydraulic shocks cause particularly in developing nations and specifically in peri- long-term damage to existing water systems, networks, urban areas. Consumption levels are likely to grow also as pumps and gates and shorten the functional life of water a result as higher incomes. Pollution is a growing threat to infrastructure. urban water supplies in many part of the world. Demands for sanitation are increasing, etc. In addition, current climate Wastewater systems built on historical design parameters, variability and the resulting floods and drought represent such as minimum flow levels or storm water capacity, will a recurring challenge. Water service providers will be faced become obsolete and reconstruction rather than rehabilita- with the challenges of having to adapt their operational sys- tion may become necessary. With reduced flow in receiving tems and institutional arrangements to account for increas- water meeting ambient water standards after dilution of ing climatic variations. wastewater treatment plants' effluent may become increas- ingly difficult and result in a need for increased treatment Urban water utilities will likely be able to cope with the ef- standards. fects of climate change on their operations in the short to medium term based on existing design parameters and More generally the effects of climate change will require availability of water resources which are largely based on that water and wastewater service providers perform more fluctuations in demand and long-term development pro- frequent technical maintenance, undertake unscheduled jections. However, the long run impact of climate change rehabilitation and in some cases scale down operations will exceed the current design margins which allow utilities at their facilities, and by extension reduce service to their to continue daily operations. clients. All of this implies additional cost for the utility. The utility may reduce the additional expenditures through im- Many utilities in different parts of the world already face the plementation of improved planning, monitoring and main- challenges of increased climatic variability which exceed tenance systems (see Section 3.3 on adaptation below), it projections made under historical records and hydrologic may pass on the cost to consumers, it may let parts of the modeling, and some have started to address them through system deteriorate, it may provide lower service levels or a their planning processes. However, in the majority of cases combination of all of the above. these efforts are still in the most preliminary stages and frequently ad-hoc in nature. This is in part because manage- The challenge is compounded by the fact that there `are ment practices continue to be based on historic climate still political, institutional and financial constraints on the 7 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities Areas of physical Water Scarcity Figure 2.2: Areas of Physical and Economicand economic water scarcity map 2 Little or no water scarcity Approaching physical water scarcity Not estimated Physical water scarcity Economic water scarcity Definitions and indicators · Little or no water scarcity. Abundant water resources relative to use, with less than 25% of water from rivers withdrawn for human purposes. · Physical water scarcity (water resources development is approaching or has exceeded sustainable limits). More than 75% of river ows are withdrawn for agriculture, industry, and domestic purposes (accounting for recycling of return ows). This de nition--relating water availability to water demand--implies that dry areas are not necessarily water scarce. · Approaching physical water scarcity. More than 60% of river ows are withdrawn. These basins will experience physical water scarcity in the near future. · Economic water scarcity (human, institutional, and financial capital limit access to water even though water in nature is available locally to meet human demands). Water resources are abundant relative to water use, with less than 25% of water from rivers withdrawn for human purposes, but malnutrition exists. Source: International Water Management Institute analysis done for the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture using the Watersim model; chapter 2. Source: UNEP/GRID, 2008. ability of local governments to develop appropriate climate difference is that water utilities in developed and middle change adaptation policies, especially in low and middle- income nations are now beginning to identify strategic income countries' [ICLEI, 2009]. Indeed water utilities in policy directions based on monitoring, analysis and the the developing world are still struggling with old and per- global circulation models (GCM) of possible climate change sistent problems of water management and sustainable scenarios. Ironically, as illustrated in Section 3.1, the impor- delivery of services. Conversely, utilities in the developed tance of forward looking approaches to the climate chal- world are increasingly challenged with aging infrastructure lenge is greater for the institutionally and financially weak and capital intensive rehabilitation needs. An important utilities. 8 Climate Change and Water Utilities Frameworks for climate change adaptation that are current- response to concerns about climate change. These efforts ly being put to use in countries such as the United States, are important and will likely yield real benefits, regardless if Australia, and South Africa reflect calculated policy design they are designed and implemented specifically to address that could be used to inspire other utilities around the climate change. world. Assisting such processes are entities such as the Wa- ter Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA) of the United States and While certain actions being taken within such utilities may the Water Supply Association of Australia (WSAA), which help to reduce their vulnerability due to climate change, there are respectively funding research to identify approaches to is a need for undertaking vulnerability assessments and re- develop decision support systems for utilities. lated climate action plans for urban water utilities in general. Specific utilities such as the Public Utilities Board (Singa- Coping with factors associated with climate change will pore), Melbourne Water (Australia) and Seattle Public Utili- require concerted efforts of many stakeholders in the water ties (USA) have adopted a mixture of scientific approaches sector and should compel increased development and in conjunction with institutional reforms to assist in defining implementation of: responses to climate associated risks. The norm, however, is that many utilities such as the Water and Sanitation Agency · Monitoring and research on climate variability and (Rawalpindi, Pakistan), Hyderabad Metropolitan Water change and related impacts on water utilities including Supply and Sewerage Board (India), Istanbul Water and the regulatory changes required to ease operational Sewerage Administration (Turkey) and the Nairobi Water and financial burdens; Company (Kenya) are concurrently coping with a range of · Changes in traditional water and wastewater services existing problems that more often than not overshadow operation and delivery reflecting variations of available concerns of addressing climate change. Nonetheless many water and costs of its provision; utilities, municipalities, and even national governments are · Technological changes that take the growing costs of taking action to improve water use efficiency, conserve water and its management into account; water, and reduce system leakages on the demand side, · Acceptance of these changes and the cost burden without explicitly identifying these activities as being in borne by utilities and by the public they serve. 9 3. framework for analysis 3.1 vulnerability and adaptive Capacity countries are collaborating with universities and research assessment facilities to use GCMs to evaluate both exposure and poten- tial impact on utilities, and then use these for medium and Vulnerability is defined as the degree to which a system long-term planning. One of the existing problems with this is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, the adverse ef- approach is the downscaling of global climate models from fects of climate change, including climate variability and their current level of analytical resolution to a level that is extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, mag- useful for utility planning purposes. The trouble lies in the nitude, and rate of climate change and variability to which mismatch of scale between global climate models (whose a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity data is generally provided on a monthly time step at a spa- [IPPC (2007)]. Assessing the vulnerability of water utilities to tial resolution of several tens of thousands of square kilo- climate change is complex given that the associated chal- meters) and catchment hydrological models (which require lenges vary in particular according to geographic location data on at least daily scales and at a resolution of perhaps a and thus in terms of possible impacts as well as in relation few square kilometers) [Bates et. al., 2008]. Further ambigu- to the capacity of utilities to respond. Generally, financially ity lies in estimating runoff from un-gauged rivers/channels. strong and technically well functioning utilities will find it In many parts of the world, especially in less developed easier to adapt. countries and remote areas, either there is no data available or only a very short period of hydrological data is available. Vulnerability identification. To identify the vulnerability Estimating runoff in such regions by computing generalized of water supply system utilities can consider adopting `top- catchment responses in quantitative ways might be highly down' and `bottom-up' approaches [Cromwell et. al., 2007]. imprecise. Both these approaches provide an analytical assessment of possible disruptions to water supply systems arising from The bottom-up approach. In applying the bottom-up ap- the impacts of climate change. proach utilities employ their own water resource planning models to assess critical vulnerabilities of their 20­50 year The top-down approach. This methodology is character- supply plans due to the impacts of climate change. Extrapo- ized by the use of GCMs (General Circulation Models) at the lating from the general findings of climate change research, regional level which are then used to assess implications on utilities can identify the likely effects that could prove water systems [AWWARF, 2006]. Some utilities in developed troublesome such as decreasing groundwater recharge, surface water quality, or potential floods. Thresholds, or tipping points, of risk for utility planning are identified and adaptive measures put forward that seek to address the Figure 3.1: Definition of Vulnerability (Graphical) assessed vulnerabilities [Cromwell et. al., 2007]. Utilities in developing countries are therefore likely to find that adopt- Exposure Sensitivity ing a bottom-up approach to be a more practical first step to undertaking climate vulnerability assessments as they Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity begin to analyze their own adaptive capacity. It is important to point out that traditional approaches to Vulnerability urban water operations and investment planning have in many cases not taken yet the interdependent nature of Source: Adapted from D. Schroter and the ATEAM consortium 2004 water resources and urban delivery systems into account. 11 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities Climate change requires addressing this interdependency Figure 3.2: Mapping Utility Vulnerability so that utilities give greater attention to water resources and source protection, in addition to improving opera- tional performance of existing infrastructure. Utilities are High Risk High High Risk Low likely to benefit from broadening their traditional perspec- Capacity: Capacity: Incorporate Utilities requiring tive of operations, and incorporate principles of integrated High climate change signi cant long urban water management (IUWM). By adopting IUWM Climate into planning. term nancial, Change Develop strategies technical and utilities are better able to consider the interaction between Risk for adaptation. policy support watersheds and the provision of services based on factors Inform policy outside of their traditional operations such as spatial devel- discussions opment, pollution control, and solid waste and storm water management. Low Risk High Low Risk Capacity: Low Capacity: Maintain good Utilities requiring Low planning long term 3.2 mapping utility vulnerability Climate practices. planning support Change Potential source of to develop Risk Utilities are likely to fall into four broad categories based on support to other strategic adapta- utilities tion plans an analysis of utility exposure to the potential impacts of climate change and their capacity to adapt (see Figure 3.2). Low Utility High Utility Risk Factors Risk Factors The bottom left set of utilities is characterized by low cli- Source: Evans and Webster (2008). mate exposure risk and possesses the institutional and financial capacity to respond. These utilities have strong planning practices and most likely represent a potential The top right set of utilities is faced with multiple risks from pool of support to more vulnerable utilities. This is probably climate change and possesses a weak capacity to respond. a rather small set of utilities likely to be concentrated in a Significant financial, technical and policy support is likely few countries. needed to equip these utilities with the necessary tools and knowledge to face the challenges of both regular operation The top left set of utilities face higher climate change as well as operations under changed climate conditions. risks but also has good institutional and financial capac- Climate change planning and adaptation must urgently be ity to adapt. For this group the potential impact of climate built into all plans for system rehabilitation, improvement change impacts is a priority that should be mainstreamed and extension and an analysis is needed to identify those in the utility's short term and long term planning processes. instances where climate change is likely to result in the need In some cases these utilities may provide useful insights for major new measures, whether investments, major opera- into appropriate policy responses which may guide weaker tional changes or institutional changes. This group is cause for utilities facing similar climatic threats. greatest concern and identifying these utilities is a pressing task. It is the customers (actual and potential) of these utilities The bottom right set of utilities face low climate change which will feel the greatest difference between systematic risks but are challenged by weak capacity. Although the climate change planning and adaptation and the lack of it. potential impacts of climate change are small they may still have an effect at the margin of their operations. These utilities already require significant support to maintain ade- 3.3 Preparing for adaptation quate operational and investment performance and climate change risks should be built into strategies for capacity Climate change intensifies existing challenges currently building and enhanced planning. faced by utilities. As argued in Section 2.2 it also increases 12 Framework for Analysis the pressure to improve existing operational procedures. of future risks is an integrated part of all medium and long Given that climate change is expected to affect a utility's term planning. Inter alia, this applies to the introduction of intake, conveyance, storage, treatment, supply and sewer- new technologies, whether for water intake, distribution age networks, wastewater treatment, disposal systems and networks, household use, or wastewater treatment etc. A drainage an improved asset management system will be good understanding of the future and its likely outcomes increasingly important. This may start with, an inventory of is essential in providing strategic direction and allowing for assets and a monitoring system based on existing informa- prioritization for future actions whether it be on resource tion. In view of the simultaneous impact of climate change expansion or demand management. on the water resource, the infrastructure etc. both that which is inside the immediate area of control of the utility Along with medium and long-term resource planning, utili- and that which is outside this area of control, an integrated ties now need to establish their own understanding of the urban water management system (IUWM) approach will be costs and benefits associated with implementing climate necessary. change adaptation measures. One of the challenges that utilities face is that decisions must be made in an envi- Adaptation options need to be developed on the ba- ronment of limited information as climatic forecasts and sis of vulnerability assessments. Having established an predictions of likely impacts that are not only imprecise, improved system for monitoring and managing current but may be inherently uncertain. Historical levels and varia- assets and operations, utilities and relevant authorities will tions in hydrologic data, traditionally an important source be better positioned to assess how water resources, infra- of information for forecasting, may no longer be a good structure, operations and planning are exposed to climatic predictor of the future.1 The emission scenarios that drive risks through a climate vulnerability assessment. Such as- the results of the General Circulation Models are highly sessments allow for estimating the scope and intensity of uncertain (although the impact hereof will show only in the potential impacts on performance as a result of climate long run). In addition the downscaling of General Circula- change. Utilities will be able to analyze the extent to which tion Models (GCM), which provides information for areas of system components are exposed to climate change in several thousand square kilometers, may in itself introduce terms of their operation and value, and to identify adapta- unknown uncertainties. tion measures that reduce vulnerability and improve resil- ience. Undertaking this form of analysis can be an impor- The key difference between forecasting with and without tant input to an analytical framework that supports prioritiz- climate change is that the later introduces fundamental un- ing measures associated with each identified adaptation certainty into the forecast. To help manage this uncertainty, option considering its technical complexity, associated cost, planners may benefit from the adoption of the distinction institutional complexity, and operational implementation. between no-regrets and climate justified measures to aid in In this way climate action plans for short and medium terms decision-making. can be integrated with the regular planning process for measures to improve operations and financial viability. According to IPCC no-regrets policy/strategy/measure is defined as; "A policy/strategy/measure that would generate net social and/or economic benefits irrespective of whether 3.4 regrets analyses for Climate Change or not anthropogenic climate change occurs". Many of the adaptation options to reduce vulnerability to climate variability are no different in a world with climate change than they are in a There are inherent uncertainties associated with forecasting world without. In many cases it is not a question of whether future water demand in urban areas that must also adapt or not to implement a policy (or a measure), but the degree to changes in urbanization rates, employment, technology, population, irrigation and industrial demands, consumer behavior, and overall economic development. Management 1 Milly, P.C. et. al (2008). 13 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities to which this should be implemented. E.g. a small reduction minimizing non-revenue water in the supply system and of non-revenue water may yield net benefits in all cases, but reducing household consumption levels by making low use a larger reduction of non-revenue water may only yield net equipment available, or enhancing the flexibility and capac- benefits under future climate conditions, where water sup- ity of assets by, for example, altering refill and draw down ply becomes scarcer and water demand increases. While in practices on existing reservoirs to maximize yield (see Annex many cases it a question of degree whether a strategy is a 2; Seattle Public Utility). Many such options carry `no regrets' no-regrets strategy or a climate-justified strategy it may be in that they confront the climate change challenge, yet are helpful to provide a rough categorization of which strate- also often justifiable under existing conditions of variability. gies will tend to be no-regrets strategies and which will tend to be climate justified strategies. This is done in the two sections below. 3.4.2 Climate justified strategies `Climate justified' actions may include, for example, con- structing new infrastructure (dams, water conveyance sys- 3.4.1 No-regrets strategies tems, building retaining walls, overhauling combined-sewer Many no-regrets strategies focus on identifying non- overflow systems or various systems to prevent intrusion of structural and operational modifications before considering salty or polluted water into the water resource), retro-fitting solutions that involve major capital investments and neither existing infrastructure (the introduction of new and more disregards climate change nor makes it the primary factor in expensive technologies), tapping new sources of water (e.g., decision making. They are worth doing anyway, no matter desalinization), water transfers, or conjunctive use of surface what the eventual climate change stress may be on a par- and groundwater. ticular system and can be implemented to address concerns of resource supply, consumer demand or utility operations. A utility planning storm water system upgrades, for ex- ample, may opt to expand the capacity of its collection sys- On the supply side, collaboration across stakeholders for tem in anticipation of more extreme precipitation events. improved watershed management or the preservation of Similarly, a city concerned about sea level rise may increase riparian wetlands upstream of cities supports improved wa- setback requirements for coastal development as part of ter quality and provides valuable flood protection. Similarly, its master plan. The City of Boston took such a decision and measures to augment supply through wastewater recycling moved a planned wastewater treatment plant to a higher or the encouragement of water markets that move water to elevation in response to concerns of flooding [Legeti, 2007]. high-valued uses may provide benefits regardless of future climate change related impacts. 3.4.3 Robust Decision Making On the demand side, strengthening water conservation It is in the realm of the `climate-justified' that water manag- programs that seek to improve water use efficiency through ers will have to make difficult decisions about how to bal- education and awareness campaigns (see Annex 2; Seville, ance the political, economic, social and environmental costs Spain), or the introduction of incentives for consumer can of action versus of non-action, given an uncertain future. provide benefits regardless of additional climate change The strategies designed must be `intelligent' and robust in stress. This may reduce the need for water restrictions dur- the sense that they are able to deliver (near) optimal levels ing drought and delay the need for developing new water of service over a wide range of conditions. A number of supplies as a city's population grows, potentially saving the tools that will assist decision makers to choose such strate- utility and its clients from incurring associated costs of reha- gies exist. They are typically presented under the heading bilitation, additional maintenance and expansion. "Robust Decision Making". Operational measures that a utility can take include reducing Robust strategies may differ in a number of ways. However, energy consumption through efficiency audits of the utility, they typically have some common features. They are flex- 14 Framework for Analysis ible, that is, they have the ability to react to a wider range through targeted communication with consumers and of future (climatic) conditions. This sometime entails a more improved coordination among municipal authorities. This step-wise decision process starting with relatively modest may include regular publications of brochures and booklets, re-design, retrofitting or re-operation measures. However, announcing precipitation and river levels, or storage vol- since these have to be prepared with the long term out- ume of reservoirs. In the short to medium term, cities with comes in mind, in these cases, the decision making process similar climatic risks may benefit from intensified knowl- of policy makers and utility managers is more complicated. edge exchange of institutional and managerial experience on addressing climate change, recording and disseminating impacts, and analyzing the cost efficiency and operational 3.4.4 Communication with Stakeholders effectiveness of adopted adaptation measures. The example Since adapting to climate change is likely to place addi- below describes the development of decision support plan- tional burdens on utilities and their customers as described ning methods in the United States that bring together top- above, climate action plans need to be complemented down and bottom-up approaches. box 3.1: water utility Climate alliance, usa To complement the application of top-down and bottom-up approaches, the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA), which consists of eight well developed utilities in the United States, is developing decision-support tools for planning, decision-making and policy-making that can accommodate uncertainty under climate change. Decision support planning methods (DSPMs) provide an analytical framework for water utilities through the integration of `broader planning assumptions such as watershed development and land use changes, water quality and quantity changes, and demand changes in planning for future water supplies' (WUCA, 2009). While recognizing that utility risks are context specific, the DSPMs being introduced by WUCA as useful frameworks for strategic planning of adaptation actions include: i) decision analysis (a probability-based method), ii) traditional scenario planning and robust decision-making (scenario-based methods), iii) portfo- lio planning and real options (financial-based methods), and iv) catastrophe model (insurance-based methods). 15 4. framework for aDaPTaTion Climate adaptation measures for urban water supply will consultative workshop. One of the important findings of be driven by the geographic context of a given utility and the chapter is that key measures such as protection of water respond to their own unique set of risks. The specific ap- resources, aquifer recharge and enhancing storage capacity proaches adopted, and the related processes of implemen- are not part of the operational mandate and thus controlled tation will therefore vary from utility to utility. A framework by the utility itself. Furthermore, the roles and responsibili- for adaptation may therefore be useful for utilities to consid- ties for water resource management and water services er during their initial planning. This could be accomplished provision are most often separated. This may pose potential through a two phased approach: i) identifying specific conflicts of interest between water resource management risk factors which will hamper efforts to adapt to climate and water utilities. This highlights the need for integrated change (macroeconomic environment, utility infrastructure urban water resources management in order to consider endowment, utility operational conditions, resource base- the trade-offs between competing uses in one integrated line),2 and ii) assessing the technical, financial and institu- policy framework. tional complexity of selected adaptation measures. The framework and adaptation measures presented here 4.1 Climate monitoring are not intended to be used as a scorecard, a roadmap to their implementation, or an assessment of how far reach- The monitoring of water resources, precipitation and water ing their impacts will be. Rather the purpose is to provide utility performance is an important tool for any utility. One a contribution to the establishment of an analytical frame- of the few government bodies to include precipitation in work that may assist Bank staff and client countries' utility its water utilities performance assessment system is the managers to identify and screen climate change adaptation National Water Commission of the Australian Government. measures. It established a utility performance benchmarking system linked to water resources and precipitation to analyze the Adaptation measures have been classified to respond to effects of climate change and provide assistance based on the following five areas: (i) Climate Monitoring, (ii) Water the robust evidence. Utilities contributing to the study (see Availability, (iii) Water Quality, Water Distribution, (iv) Waste- Annex 1) suggested a number of system elements (see Box water Collection, (v) Wastewater Treatment and Effluent 4.1) necessary for effective monitoring that are within the Discharge. scope of water utility operations. To screen adaptation measures for potential effectiveness Monitoring not only assists utilities but at the same time and feasibility, a number of criteria should be considered; facilitates decision making that avoids over-investments. (i) Is the no-regrets categorization applicable? (ii) Is the mea- sure controlled by the utility? (iii) Is the level of technical A similar approach has been implemented in the United complexity realistic for the utility? (iv) Is the measure finan- Kingdom where Ofwat, the national regulatory body, cially feasible? (v) What are the institutional complexities of insists on transparent analyses of the possible effects of implementing each action? climate change on water utilities' investment programs (see Box 4.2). In the following sections a sample of measures included in the table are discussed in greater detail. The discussion is based on responses to the internationally distributed ques- 2 See Evans and Webster (2008) for a full discussion of mapping tionnaire and the experience presented by utilities in the utility risk factors. 17 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities box 4.1: monitoring for Climate Change Water resources and hydrologic patterns: precipitation, glacier melting, water table levels, surface water flow, ambient water quality and saline "tongue" intrusions into estuarine water supply intake schemes; Water systems sustainability: Measuring the degree to which water use meets current needs; this could include the ratio of water withdrawn to renewable supply or days of available fresh water supply for a specific city Demand for water services: and effects of demand management; Water utilities operation: cost of water production, transmission, treatment and distribution; leakage, commercial and techni- cal NRW; brakes in the system, wastewater flow Wastewater operations monitoring: changes in volumes and composition of wastewater, brakes and clogs in wastewater col- lection network, adequacy of existing technology to composition of wastewater and wastewater treatment effluent and sludge; Monitoring of adequacy of adaptation actions: With system vulnerabilities defined and a baseline established, adaptation actions/strategies can be tracked over a period of time to assess progress towards predetermined targets box 4.2: ofwat, united kingdom "Several companies are planning significant investment in AMP5 [5 year price setting schedule for 2010­2015] in order to ad- dress the perceived effects of climate change on the supply/demand balance. Climate change is an important issue, and it is vital that companies plan carefully to mitigate and adapt to its impact. However, this will be a long-term challenge, requiring a response appropriate for the long-term. As set out in the guidance for water resource planning, it is equally important to make sure that there is a robust evidence base for significant investment decisions that companies cannot reverse and that will have a permanent impact on customers' bills. Companies will need to provide robust evidence for any step changes to the estimates of existing supply capacity (for example, deployable output) and demand that they use in their investment planning for the 2010­15 period, whether those changes are related to new information on climate change or to other factors". Source: Ofwat, Water Supply and Demand Policy Price review, 2008 4.2 water availability Reducing demand, however, largely depends on current consumption levels and patterns of water use. At present, 4.2.1 Demand Management and domestic use of water in the United Kingdom is about 150 adjustment of operations liters per capita per day (lpcd) as compared to 250 lpcd in to below capacity Saudi Arabia and 300 lpcd in the United States. While sig- Since 1990 demand management has been increasingly nificant gains can be made early on in consumer behavior promoted in the planning and management of freshwa- change campaigns to reduce water consumption, diminish- ter resources. Consequently legislative mandates began ing returns may set in as per capita consumption reaches a to emerge whereby water institutions implemented floor. Singapore Public Utility Board's (PUB) target to reduce conservation programs and individual consumers ad- water consumption by a mere 3 lpcd, for example, from 158 opted water saving measures [Dziegielewski, 1999]. lpcd to 155 lpcd has been planned over 6 years [Govern- Demand management is now widely promoted in many ment of Singapore, 2007]. In the United Kingdom the target countries and is recognized as an important adaptation for the water industry is to reduce water consumption to measure to both current climate variation and climate approximately 130 lpcd over a period of 20 years [Defra, change. 2008]. The city of Copenhagen has had a water demand 18 Framework for Adaptation management program in place for two decades and has Figure 4.1: Astana, Kazakhstan: State Communal reduced water consumption from 174 lpcd to 121 lpcd in Enterprise Astana Su Arnasy Sewer System that period.3 Blockages (blockages/km/yr) 80 The proper balance of demand management and technical designs need to be carefully considered as poorly planned conservation efforts can be counter-productive to a util- 60 ity's financial and operational stability. Running existing infrastructure, primarily pumping equipment and networks, 40 below designed capacity can lead to operational difficulties and prove financially risky. For example, it may be costly and 20 difficult to maintain pressure within oversized networks that are designed for specific levels of consumption. Gravity fed sewerage can also be affected as minimum flow levels may 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 not be met and result in the clogging of pipes. Wastewa- ter treatment plants may also face operational challenges Source: IBNET, 2009. due to low wastewater flow and contaminant levels in the wastewater that do not correspond to a system's existing and most importantly, approaches in the utility's technical technology. and financial operations. In well developed utilities NRW varies from 5­15 percent, as in compact systems like Singa- Since 1997 the city of Astana, Kazakhstan, has experienced pore or Hong Kong, but may reach 80 percent in water utili- rapid urbanization rates (10% annually) and concurrent ties in developing countries (See IBNET database at www. drought that caused the depletion of the Viacheslavskoye ib-net.org). It is generally considered that 20­25 percent is Reservoir, the major water source for the city. To respond to an acceptable or "tolerable" level of NRW for a utility.4 Cli- the resulting water shortages the municipality implement- mate change, however, will inevitably reduce this "tolerable" ed demand management measures including water meter- level as it becomes more affordable for a utility to address ing and the increased water tariffs to promote responsible NRW given increased marginal cost of water and associated use. Within the first two years of these reforms a significant revenues which will meet the marginal cost of increased drop in domestic consumption from 370 lpcd to 100 lpcd NRW reduction efforts (please see figure 4.2). occurred. This reduction in consumption resulted in an un- anticipated outcome for the wastewater collection system that was designed for substantially higher wastewater flow 4.2.3 Water metering rates. Currently the municipal utility Astana Su has up to 300 Water metering is the most efficient tool for reducing clogs on its wastewater network a day (see Figure 4.1). domestic water consumption. Metering allows for greater accountability to both a consumer who pays for water ac- cording to actual use, and to utilities that are paid according 4.2.2 Reduction of Non Revenue Water to the volume of services they provide. Coupled with an Non-revenue water (NRW) affects the financial viability of water utilities through lost revenues and increased opera- tional costs. If a utility has limited water resources, high 3 See https://www.ke.dk/portal/page/portal/Erhverv/Vand/Vand_ levels of NRW can result in water shortages during peak forbrug?page=152 demand periods, reducing the level of service provided to 4 The authors recognize that measuring NRW in percentages is customers and/or causing intermittent supply. A utility's a very crude measure. Better alternatives include m3/km/day or even better comparing total losses in m3/year with the so-called level of NRW depends on many factors; network density, unavoidable annual real loss (UARL) for the system. However, here age and design, pressure in the system, maintenance efforts we follow the tradition of using percentages as the measure. 19 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities Figure 4.2: Influence of Climate Change on NRW sure from its consumers to implement a new billing system based on actual consumption to replace the flat monthly 1 "Tolerable" level tariff structure. The introduction of individual apartment 0.9 meters resulted in a marked reduction in consumption lev- 0.8 els and assisted to alleviate concerns over water availability Marginal cost of water 0.7 (See Figure 4.3). It must be noted that the introduction of 0.6 metering can at times result in unanticipated outcomes. 0.5 In a number of cases, consumers may react if reductions 0.4 in consumption are followed by increases in the tariff (to 0.3 keep revenues). On the other hand in many cases, lower 0.2 consumption may also reduce costs (for example pumping 0.1 costs) and this has to be fed back into tariffs. "Tolerable" level with climate change 0 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% NRW In New York City a completed metering program and incen- Marginal cost with CC Marginal cost without CC tives for installation of water efficient equipment by con- Marginal cost of water recovered through NRW reduction sumers resulted in the total water saving of nearly 17% (see Box 4.3 below) for the city. Source: Authors. Values are indicative. It is also important to note that metering programs are appropriate tariff policy, this can result in a significant drop expensive given that meters require regular calibration in water demand. Evidence shows that utilities that switch and replacement. In the case of England and Wales, Ofwat from a fixed fee (flat rate) billing system to universal meter- calculated that metering would cost an additional $48 per ing experience a reduction of water use among customers year per connection compared to an average bill of water in the order of 30 percent, with an upper limit being as high $174 per year and $308 for water and sewerage combined. as 50 percent [AWWA, 2008]. As a result of water shortages Therefore, many utilities in OECD countries have decided in Moldova in the mid 1990s, Chisinau Water faced pres- against metering in cases where the decision to install me- Table 4.1: Non Revenue Water of Participating Utilities (%) City, Country NRW % City, Country NRW % Sao Paulo, Brazil 38 Singapore 5 Istanbul, Turkey 30 Senegal 20 Dhaka, Bangladesh 40 Melbourne, Australia 3 Lima, Peru 37 Nairobi, Kenya 34 Bogota, Colombia 41 Burkina Faso 22 ROSVODOKANAL, Russia 29 Hanoi City, Vietnam 20 Hyderabad, India 50 Rawalpindi, Pakistan 46 Manila, Philippines 48 Windhoek, Namibia 14 Source: The International Benchmarking Network for Water and Sanitation Utilities (IBNET). Base year 2005 except Manila and Bogota 2004 20 Framework for Adaptation Figure 4.3: Effects of Water Metering on Residential ters cannot be justified by the marginal cost of water and Consumption in Chisinau, Moldova (1996­2008) a potential reduction of investment costs as a result of a reduction in demand. However, metering has indirect ben- 500 efits, such as increasing consumer awareness and helping 450 to detect and estimate leakages. Domestic consumption, lpcd 400 350 300 4.2.4 Water Tariffs: Key to Demand 250 Management 200 `Climate change led' water policy interventions are likely to 150 see the use of tariffs as an effective tool to reduce demand 100 and increase rational water use behavior among users. Tariff 50 is a key instrument in demand management, yet it is widely 0 known that tariff adjustments can be politically challenging 0 20 40 60 80 100 Metering level, % and difficult to implement. As a result, most urban water utilities in developing countries often are unable to cover Source: IBNET box 4.3: new york City water Conservation Program New York City implemented a water conservation program during the 1990s and early 2000s. With a consumer base estimated at 8 million, the city administration took the following steps: · Installed more than 500,000 meters and converted most customers from flat-rate to metered billing · Designed and commissioned a new billing system and assumed responsibility for billing from the Department of Finance · Conducted a toilet replacement program involving more than 1.3 million fixtures and 120,000 properties The program resulted in significant savings in water as well as raising the revenue base. · Consumption reduced by 15­17% after completion of universal water metering · Implementation of water conservation actions at the consumer level: toilet replacements, water consumption audits, educa- tion programs · Customer complaints regarding their high bills were taken as an opportunity to educate consumers on the role of water metering There were also regulatory measures which enhanced the overall efficacy of the program. · City Council prohibited the sale of high-flow showerheads and faucets (1989) and toilets (1992) · Federal law strengthened city/state laws (1994) · Toilet replacements undertaken in public housing (1992­2005) · State Energy Authority provided incentives for Energy Star clothes washers which contributed to increasing sales of high efficiency clothes washers (2000-Present) · Building Code revised to require 20% water/energy reduction (Mayoral Proposal 2008) Overall program benefits were, · Per unit cost of the "saved" water was 45­68% less than new supply and treatment · Net present value of savings amounted to of USD196 million which allowed deferring supply expansion for ten years · Impact evaluation found that participating apartment buildings reduced consumption by 29% · Citywide savings of about 350,000 m3 a day · Mean daily demand 4.12 million m3 a day in 2006, compared with 5.58 million m3 a day in 1990. Source: Liebold, 2008 21 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities Figure 4.4: Water Tariffs and Consumption in promoting retrofitting programs, imposing legal restrictions, Budapest in combination with more indirect mechanisms including educational campaigns, corporate social responsibility ini- 360 tiatives, or customer recognition programs. 340 Water consumption, lpcd PE 320 Public campaigns in Singapore which made `do-it-yourself' water-saving kits available coupled with mobile exhibitions 300 to give advice on proper installation and demonstration of 280 water efficient appliances proved to be effective in harness- 260 ing public attention and interest [Rouse, 2007]. In the case 240 of Singapore demand management has been given equal importance to supply management. Reducing water con- 220 sumption from users is one of the major objectives for the 200 Public Utilities Board (PUB) to be achieved under demand 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.95 Wate tari in US$ per m3 management through public education, regulations and pricing. Moreover, the installation of low capacity flushing cisterns and constant flow regulators have been made com- pulsory, and this has significantly reduced domestic water the recurrent costs of operation and maintenance, leaving consumption from 176 lpcd in 1994 to 158 lpcd in 2007. little or no funds to recover capital costs, invest in modern- The PUB is now aiming to further reduce consumption to ization and/or system expansion [UN-Water, 2009]. 155 lpcd by 2012. Countries facing water scarcity are increasingly beginning In 2006, PUB launched the `10 Liter Challenge' to encour- to address tariff reform in attempts to improve water ser- age customers to reduce their daily water consumption vices. In those utilities where cost recovery has been made by 10 liters. This was followed up in 2008 by two comple- possible through setting appropriate tariffs and improving mentary initiatives; (i) the `Water Efficient Homes Program' bill collection, water usage patterns have been shown to where PUB officers visit households in Singapore to install change markedly. For example, the Walvis Bay municipal- free-of-charge water saving devices such as thimbles and ity in Namibia doubled its tariffs between 1998 and 2003. cistern water saving bags, and (ii) the `10% Challenge' which This contributed to a 50 percent reduction in demand for focuses on the non-domestic sector, such as hotels and groundwater abstraction [Windhoek presentation at Madrid industries, to reduce their total water consumption by 10 Workshop, 2009]. percent. Another mechanism adopted to reduce water consumption is the enforcement of the Water Conserva- Water tariffs as a tool for improving demand management tion Tax (WCT) on domestic as well as non-domestic con- in Budapest resulted in a reduction in water consumption sumers. This tiered tax is applied to a customer's monthly from 345 lpcd in 1995 to approximately 230 lpcd in 2007. tariff charge at a rate of 30% for households consuming less than 40 cubic meters of water per month, and 45% for those above. 4.2.5 Consumer behavior and low water use appliances Annex 2 presents a range of other actions taken in Seattle, While much of the discussion has focused on actions that Seville, Melbourne, Singapore and Namibia to engage can be taken by a utility itself, there is also a role for con- consumers into the water conservation. Table 4.2 indicates sumer behavior change in adapting household use of water the relative percentages for the water consumption of in the use of appliances. Behavior change can be accom- household appliances and is useful for identifying where plished through direct actions, such as increasing tariff rates, advanced water-saving technologies may emerge. 22 Framework for Adaptation Table 4.2: Indoor Residential End Uses of Water Lima, Peru, has patented the Product Seal for Water Saving Appliances, which supports and certifies products that gen- Percentage of Indoor erate a minimum of 30 percent water saving. Elsewhere the End Use Water Use municipality of Sydney, Australia, encouraged water conser- vation devices in addition to implementing demand manage- Toilets 27 ment measures and water metering programs (see Box 4.4). Clothes washers 22 Showers 17 4.2.6 Integrated Water Resource Faucets 16 Management Leakage 14 Land use planning and management for agricultural land, Other domestic 2 forest, fallow and pasture land affects watershed soils and vegetation. Factors such as urbanization, shifting cultivation, Baths 2 mining and industrialization within watersheds have a di- Dishwashers 1 rect influence on the quality of water from surface runoff. In Total Indoor* 100 order to manage their water effectively, municipalities and water utilities will have to extend their operational reach to Source: Mayer et. al., 1999 in AWWA 2008. include watershed vegetation and ecology. To facilitate this, * Total sums to 101 due to rounding. better communication and coordination within water utili- ties and between government departments dealing with water, storm water, sewage and land use planning will be With greater awareness of water conservation in addition necessary, but not sufficient. to rising costs of water, demand for water saving equip- ment and household appliances may rise in the short and For instance, the Nairobi Water Company has initiated a medium term. Many technologies exist, including, but not new approach towards watershed management by devel- limited to: low-flow toilets (single/double flush), shower oping a partnership between the Ministry of Environment fixtures, tank-less or on-demand water heaters, motion ac- and private companies that may have direct or indirect tivated taps, and dishwashers and laundry equipment that interests in the protection of watersheds. Over the last reduces the waste of increasingly costly water. However, three years actions have been taken under this joint initia- barriers for widespread use could include the convenience tive in the upper catchments of Motoine-Ngong River to factor and financing (many of these appliances require (ad- increase forest cover, reduce source pollution and increase ditional) expenditure and many households do not have groundwater recharge rate. The Nairobi Water Company easy access to finance. has also increased its cooperation with the Water Resources Management Authority (WRMA) and is benefitting from Various studies presented by the American Water Works WRMA's activities in its catchment area including sediment Association [2008] show that potential for water savings in monitoring, tracing study to identify the catchment area of urban systems from such appliances are in the magnitude Kikuyu Springs which is one of Nairobi's water sources, and of 15­25 percent over one to two decades. In Singapore, the support WRMA is providing to develop sib-catchment Australia and Germany programs to guide consumers in management plans. purchasing water efficient appliances are now common. However, regulatory and government support were crucial Watershed dynamics determine the overall levels of making these programs operational. available water supplies through a complex interaction between evaporation, precipitation, infiltration, stor- Utilities can also play an important role in educating their age, soil moisture and runoff. For example, to reduce consumer of such products. SEDAPAL, the water utility of potential contamination of its water supply catchments 23 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities box 4.4: sydney water Conservation Program Sydney water serves some 1.7 million homes and businesses of which more than 97% are metered. The utility receives about 80 percent of supplies from the Warragamba Dam over the Hawkesbury Nepean River. Facing severe water shortages, Sydney wa- ter plans to reduce water intake by 25% by 2000­2001 to the level of 1990­1991, and will achieve 35% reduction by 2010­2011. These reduction targets were set by the local regulator ­ Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) as the part of Syd- ney Water operating license. The utility carried out Least Cost Planning and cost-benefit analysis of individual demand manage- ment options from an end-use perspective. The End Use-Least Cost Planning model provided a flexible framework to compare a diverse range of options, · Rebates: washing machine, rainwater tanks · Regulation: appliance and building standards · Pricing: multi-tier prices, fixed/ variable price ratio · Recycled water options: discrete and whole community projects · Education / behavior change initiatives · Non-cash incentives Customer cost/ Utility cost Total Resource cost Utility cost/benefit benefit estimate Program estimate (USD/kL) estimate (USD /kL) estimate (USD /kL) (USD /kL) EDC Business1 $0.13 $0.24 $0.13 ­$1.95 Waterfix $0.40 $0.45 $0.21 ­$0.11 Active Leak re- $0.19 $0.19 ­$0.11 N/A duction Rainwater tank $0.61 $3.27 $0.61 $1.37 rebates Under a major public campaign the city administration encouraged households to save water through various measures, which best suit them. The program resulted in:- · Rainwater tank rebates: 45,500 / ~ $11.82M · Waterfix visits: 458,300 / ~ $44.57M, 9.58 billion liters /year saved · Washing machine rebates: 98,500 / $11.51M, 1.974 billion liters / year saved · EDC Business program: 388 participant organizations @ 2,069 sites, 13.406 billion liters/year saved. Source: Boerema, 2008 Note: 2006 values have been taken, Conversion rate, $1 AUD=$0.778 USD 1 Water conservation in commercial office buildings and shopping centers the Melbourne authorities have regulated public access every year the catchments of only one of the four Yarra to catchment areas. The mountain ranges in the east of Tributaries are harvested and other water supply systems the city are marked as `open' and `closed'. Public access are `turned out' during the timber harvesting months (De- to closed catchments is usually not permitted and only cember to April, inclusive) to protect water quality. This specifically authorized activities can be carried out in coincides with the lowest water yielding period and water those areas. Open catchments are accessible to the public is not often harvested during this time to maintain mini- in designated areas, but with careful management and mum environmental flows required downstream [Govern- restrictions on camping and other activities. Similarly, ment of Victoria, 2009]. 24 Framework for Adaptation 4.2.7 Diversification of water sources It will be particularly important to assess a utility's flexibility to switch between different water sources. Intake from Diversifying sources of water supply is likely to become each of these sources has different implications for required increasingly important for water utilities. Whether this is equipment, inputs (chemicals, electricity) and the technical through the construction of new storage facilities, the ap- capacity of a utility's staff. propriate and sustainable extraction of groundwater, water trading or conservation, or the use of recycled or desalinat- ed water, utilities must begin to think about ways in which Since 1970s, Singapore has added three main sources to they can affordably use alternative sources. the existing water mains to ensure reliability of supply in addition to water imported from Malaysia: collection of Given the expected impacts that climate change will have rain-water, reclamation of wastewater, and water desalina- on water resources, reliance on a single source of supply tion. The four sources together are known as `Four National may become an increasing risk for many urban water utili- Taps', and are expected to serve as principal supplies to ties. Existing water intake systems may not be adequate meet Singapore's water requirements in a future affected by under climate change and the foreseeable increasing climate change. In addition to these steps, Singapore is also cost of water available for treatment and distribution may expanding its water catchment area to two-thirds of its land force utilities to assess alternative options. It may include area by 2009 with the completion of three new reservoirs. building new reservoirs or expanding their existing ca- pacity, tapping groundwater aquifers, inter-basin water 4.2.8 Enhancing storage capacity transfer, capturing unharnessed resources such as rain- water harvesting, desalination, or employing water reuse Most water utilities opt to develop renewable resources and technologies. enhance storage capacity when possible. This might involve box 4.5: roofwater harvesting Domestic Roofwater Harvesting (DRWH) provides an additional source from which to meet local water needs. In recent years, DRWH systems have become cheaper and more predictable in performance. There is a better understanding of the way to mix DRWH with other water supply options, in which DRWH is usually used to provide full coverage in the wet season and partial coverage during the dry season as well as providing short-term security against the failure of other sources. Interest in DRWH technology is reflected in the water policies of many developing countries, where it is now cited as a possible source of household water. There has been much recent activity concerning domestic roofwater harvesting in countries as far apart as Kenya, China, Brazil and Germany. Many countries now have Rainwater (Harvesting) Associations. The technique is approaching maturity and has found its major applications where (i) rival water technologies are facing difficulties (for example due to deterioration in groundwater sources), and (ii) water collection drudgery is particularly severe (for example hilly areas of Africa). In some locations, such as India, DRWH has been strongly linked with aquifer replenishment programs. Elsewhere it is seen as an attractive technique, in part because it fits with the decentralization of rural water supply and is suitable for household manage- ment. While water availability has been decreasing all over the world, rainwater usage has been suggested to promote potable water savings and ease water availability problems. A study undertaken in Brazil shows a potential for potable water savings for the residential sector. It demonstrated that average water availability in Brazil amounts to about 33,000 m3 per capita per year. In two of the five geographic regions of Brazil, however, this availability is lower than 5,000 m3 per capita per year. By using rainwater the potential for potable water savings is shown to vary from 48% to 100% depending on the geographic region. Source: Thomas, T.H. & Martinson, D.B, 2007; Ghisi, 2006 25 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities box 4.6: nairobi water Company Nairobi's water utility is strongly advocating its need to increase its water availability vis a vis concerned ministries and depart- ments of the Government of Kenya. Together with the Athi Water Services Board is therefore currently embarking on a compre- hensive study to identify additional water sources for Nairobi. The study will look at all options including additional dams, use of shallow and deep groundwater, roof catchment, reclaiming wastewater, inter-catchment water transfer, usage of existing public and private wells during emergency situations etc. tapping lower quality raw water sources such as water from 4.2.9 Water reuse and desalination the lower reaches of a river, new dams and reservoirs, or long-distance water conveyance. Construction of additional Where existing water resources are constrained from reservoirs to alleviate variability in seasonal, monthly, daily meeting rising demands, water utilities tend to explore and hourly water availability is one consideration for utilities alternatives such as water reuse and desalination. There are that face water stress. multiple international examples where wastewater reuse is factoring heavily into supply strategies for urban use and Enhancing seasonal reservoir capacity is also an option for consumption. This approach is not widely applied however, utilities facing increased precipitation variability so that wa- due to factors such as costs of necessary treatment and ter reservoirs filled during the rainy/winter seasons are used difficulty in gaining social acceptance. Two noteworthy to bridge any shortfalls that may be encountered during examples are the city of Windhoek, Namibia where direct dry periods. This approach is already in use in places such as potable reuse is an important supplementary source of wa- USA (New York City, Michigan, Colorado), Sri Lanka (Kirindi ter (see Box 4.7), and Singapore where high quality treated Oya), and Senegal (Lake Guiers). The key difficulty reported wastewater (NEWater) is being sold as a potable product for this option is in maintaining/securing agreements for (see Annex 2). pollution protected zones to ensure acceptable levels of water quality. Another consideration with this approach is A major consideration in the viability of a reuse project is that such reservoirs may affect property rights, land acquisi- the proximity of the treatment plant to the application site tion and resettlement of affected communities. If properly as a separate distribution system is required to transport designed, these reservoirs have the capacity to bring sub- the reclaimed water to where it can be used. Given that a stantial environmental benefits. In addition to increased sta- large proportion of investment costs in the water industry bility in water supply, seasonal reservoirs can capture storm are in the distribution network, a new water source which water runoff, and contribute to increased aquifer recharge. requires its own network is potentially not competitive on cost grounds. At present the cost of water reuse with While the construction of new dams and reservoirs may different combinations of treatment and supply ranges be feasible for some utilities, they can only be built where USD 0.02 to 2.50 per cubic meter [Yuan Zhou Richard S.J. suitable sites are available. In the case of EMASESA (Seville, Tol, 2004]. However, it is important to note that cost varies Spain) the utility has been prohibited from constructing a drastically from one region to another. For instance, the new reservoir as part of its supply management. As a result, cost of recycled water to PUB is USD 0.30 per cubic meter the utility was forced to change its strategy and focus heav- [PUB, 2008]; while for Windhoek it is USD 0.76 per cubic ily on demand management through public campaigns to meter [IBNET, 2005]. An additional consideration of waste- reduce water consumption and placing increased emphasis water reuse by suburban agriculture is that it can dramati- on operational efficiency by minimizing distribution losses. cally reduce competition for fresh water which has been Annexes 2 and 3 present details on water management in documented in reports from Egypt, India, and Pakistan Seville (Spain), Nairobi (Kenya) and Ningbo (China). [Ensink, J., et al, 2002] 26 Framework for Adaptation box 4.7: water reclamation, windhoek, namibia The City of Windhoek started its two water reclamation plans in the early 1960s. After a number of years of experimental work, and the achievement of favourable results, the municipality established the Goreangab Water Reclamation Plant (GWRP) in 1969, with an initial capacity of 4,300 m³ per day, which was approximately 25% of the daily demand at the time. Between 1969 and 1992 GWRP was upgraded four times and the capacity increased to 7,500m³ per day (15% of total demand). The reclaimed water is blended before distribution to the city. During the drought of 1996, the supply dam serving Windhoek dropped below 6% of its capacity. Feasibility studies indicated that increased reclamation was the only readily available option and in 1999 construction on a new reclamation plant of 21Mm³ per day was started. The New Goreangab reclamation plant was put into operation in 2002 and forms one of the pillars in the supply chain to the City, supplying up to 35% of the daily demand of the City. Over the decades citizens of Windhoek have accepted drinking a blend of water that contains reclaimed water. The city has embraced the value of recycling to its water supply to the extent that the annual water resource planning relies on the con- tribution from recycling. While desalination is another possible response to water technology makes the process cheaper, and the alternatives scarcity, it presently amounts to only 0.4 percent of the become more expensive [GWI, 2006]. world's freshwater needs. [Yuan Zhou, Richard S.J. Tol, 2004]. However, it may be considered in a number of circum- Wastewater treatment and desalination are also proving to stances including where there is a sufficient and convenient be important in making Singapore self-reliant in for its wa- source of water whose salinity renders it non-potable, ter demands. Approximately 15 percent of Singapore's total where there is the ability to finance large capital projects water demand is met by the use of high grade wastewater which have higher operating costs than traditional water treatment processes, which employs a multi-barrier treat- utility assets, or where the alternative sources of potable ment including a micro/ultra-filtration, reverse osmosis and water are either more expensive to develop or less reliable. finally, ultraviolet disinfection. The resultant water quality Whether desalination is the solution for a particular utility is meets the standards set by the United States Environmen- dependent on the relative cost of alternatives. Currently, de- tal Protection Agency and World Health Organization for salination is a relatively high-cost alternative in the range of drinking water. With a fifth water treatment plant expected USD 0.50­1.00/m3 [Yuan Zhou, Richard S.J. Tol, 2004.] Many to be operating by 2010, Singapore will be able to meet advocates of desalination believe that this will change, as 30% of its water requirements from reclaimed water after box 4.8: Desalination and wastewater Treatment in melbourne Desalination and wastewater treatment are set to gain importance in Melbourne's water supply management in the future. A major desalination plant will supply 150 billion liters of water a year to Melbourne by the end of 2011. This will be equivalent to about one third of Melbourne's annual water supply, independent of the variations in rainfall. Another strategy being implemented by Melbourne to secure high quality recycled water is the upgrading of its water treat- ment plants. At present about half of the city's wastewater is treated and being used for agricultural, residential parks and gar- dens and industrial recycling schemes. Upgrading the treatment plants to tertiary level will open avenues to progressively ex- pand the scope of using recycled water, including replacing supplies currently used from the Latrobe Valley river water in power system cooling. Source: Melbourne Water (2007) 27 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities treatment. The desalination plant started in 2003 supplies Surface water quality is similarly affected by increased water 30 million gallons of water per day. Please also refer to An- temperature, extreme variability in rainfall, and catchment nex 1 for details on water management in Windhoek and contamination due to severe floods or droughts leading to Singapore. Detailed cases of water reuse are presented in increased costs of treatment for utilities. Annex 2. In addition to the need for improved protection of water quality at point of source, dilution of wastewater treatment 4.2.10 Market-based mechanisms plants' effluent is becoming increasingly complex given the for reallocation of water need for increased treatment standards as a result of exist- resources and integrated water ing environmental regulations and reduced flows of receiv- management ing waters, in. It is therefore probable that advanced waste- Market-based mechanisms whereby cities can buy wa- water treatment will become more common as advanced ter rights from other users to meet urban water demand technologies are introduced that conform to increasingly have been put to use in Australia, the western United stringent environmental standards and regulations. States, Chile and Mexico. This is possible in formal water markets, where water rights and legislation are estab- The Nairobi Water Company is bearing high water treat- lished. Melbourne participates in the water market of the ment costs due to longer dry spells prior to the onset of the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia along with the agricul- annual monsoons, which cause high turbidity in its surface tural community. This allows for the efficient sharing and water sources. Similarly in Pakistan, the Water and Sanita- the optimization of water resources between irrigators tion Authority of Rawalpindi has observed higher bacterial and urban users. In Tucson, United Sates, it was found that contamination of the sources filling Lake Rawal during the the purchase of water rights from agricultural users was a dry season. In both cases the utilities have been required to cheaper alternative than long-distance water conveyance take considerations in account that go beyond traditional [Schiffler, 1998]. Under climate change, water utilities may operations and approach the respective environmental and find trading water rights more economically attractive than water resource authorities to collectively establish policies undertaking investment heavy infrastructure projects. In the governing water source protection. longer-term this could feasibly be an adaptation measure that encourages farmers to use water more efficiently and Prior to the February 2009 fires that struck southern Aus- in turn on-sell surpluses while using revenues to reinvest tralia, Melbourne Water identified that the utility faced in- in additional water efficient technologies for agriculture creased risk of bushfires in catchment areas and associated [Godden, 2008]. Please refer to Annex 2 for details on water impacts on water quality as a result of extended drought. markets in Australia. This perceived risk was proven accurate. The fires damaged approximately 30% of the utility's catchments and affected an estimated 940km of waterways. Rivers and creeks in the 4.3 actions to Protect water quality catchments were impacted through loss of surrounding vegetation, fallen and burnt vegetation in the water and increased sediment and reduced water quality. Detrimental 4.3.1 Protection of the water resource effects on drinking water quality for Melbourne were avoid- Quality of water resources and land use are intrinsically ed, however, given that the utility is able to transfer water linked. Land type and use, plus human intervention (along between its nine storage reservoirs and rely on those for with natural and climatic factors) will have a strong influ- necessary supply while affected catchments recover from ence on receiving waters. Land use management helps such types of shocks. To minimize prolonged risk to water utilities protect water quality from soil erosion, land salinity, quality the utility is undertaking rehabilitation work to sta- and agrochemicals from farmlands, industrial pollutants or bilize soils and thereby reduce erosion and sediment runoff runoff with high levels of silt. coupled with heightened monitoring. Some rain since 28 Framework for Adaptation the fires has helped some of Melbourne's waterways and amount of ash and sediment entering rivers and creeks. catchments start their gradual recovery. It has encouraged Case studies from Melbourne and Nairobi are presented in vegetation to grow and this natural barrier has reduced the Annex 2 Table 4.3: Technical, Financial & Institutional Complexities Technical Complexity Financial Complexity Institutional Complexity Low The available solutions are present The proposed action is within the The proposed solution does not on the market utility's operational mandate and require approval by its consumers, can be financed from the operation governing bodies or owner and and maintenance budget can be done within the operational mandate Medium The technical solution requires ad- The investment program associated The investment program will require ditional research modification to a with the proposed solution can be substantial communication and specific utility operating under spe- implemented only through external consensus from consumers and cial conditions borrowing by the local government governing bodies authority High A new, technically challenging, solu- The investment program can only The involvement of the central tion must be developed be implemented through substan- government is required for the tial financial assistance from the resolution of institutional gridlock or central government or international establishment of new operational donors. policies. 29 30 Technical Financial Institutional Measure Climate Monitoring Complexity Complexity Complexity Regret Controlled By Reference To Text Establishing Monitoring Low Low Low No-regret National authorities / Chapter 4.1. System for Climatic Ef- utility fects Downscaling of the GCM Medium Medium Low Climate justified utility Technical Financial Institutional Measure Water Availability Complexity Complexity Complexity Regret Controlled By Reference To Text Demand Management Low Low Medium No-regret Utility Chapter 4.2.1 NRW Reduction Medium Medium Low No-regret Utility Chapter 4.2.2 Water Metering Low Low Medium No-regret Utility Chapter 4.2.3 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities Water Tariffs Low Low High No-regret Utility Chapter 4.2.4 Consumer Behavior and Medium Medium Low No-regret Consumer / Utility Chapter 4.2.5 Low Water Use Appli- ances Integrated Water Re- Medium Medium High No-regret External stakeholders Chapter 4.2.6 sources Management Diversification of Water Medium High High Climate justified Authorities, utility and Chapter 4.2.7 Resources external stakeholders Enhancing Storage Ca- Medium High Medium Climate justified Authorities, utility and Chapter 4.2.8 pacity external stakeholders Water Reuse and Desali- Medium High Low Climate justified Utility Chapter 4.2.9 nation Adjustment to Operation Medium High Low Climate justified Utility Chapter 4.2.1 Below Design Capacity (continued on next page) Technical Financial Institutional Measure Water Availability Complexity Complexity Complexity Regret Controlled By Reference To Text Aquifer Recharge Using High High High Climate justified Utility / External stake- Annex 1 ­ Namibia Recycled Water holders Relocation of Flooded Medium High Medium Climate justified Utility Infrastructure Market Based Instru- Medium Medium High No regret Authorities, utility and Chapter 4.2.10 ments external stakeholders Technical Financial Institutional Measure Water Quality Complexity Complexity Complexity Regret Controlled By Reference To Text Protection of the Water Low Low Low No-regret Authorities, utility and Chapter 4.3.1 Resource external stakeholders Integrated Water Re- Medium Medium High No-regret Authorities, utility and 4.2.6 source Management external stakeholders Technical Financial Institutional Measure Water Distribution Complexity Complexity Complexity Regret Controlled By Reference To Text Reduce Effects of Weak- Medium High Low Climate justified Utility ened Surface Crust on the Network Adjustment to Opera- Medium High Low Climate justified Utility Chapter 4.2.1. tion Below Design Ca- pacity Wastewater Technical Financial Institutional Measure Collection Complexity Complexity Complexity Regret Controlled By Reference To Text Protection of Sewers Medium Medium Medium Climate justified Utility Annex 1 ­ Seattle from Overflow Adjustment of Hydraulic Medium High Medium Climate justified Utility Systems to Floods (continued on next page) 31 Framework for Adaptation (continued) 32 Wastewater Technical Financial Institutional Measure Collection Complexity Complexity Complexity Regret Controlled By Reference To Text Reduce Effects of the Medium High Low Climate justified Utility Weakened Surface Crust on the Network Adjustment to Opera- Medium High Low Climate justified Utility Chapter 4.2.1 tion Below Design Ca- pacity Relocation of Flooded Medium High Medium Climate justified Utility Sewers Wastewater Treatment & Effluent Technical Financial Institutional Measure Discharge Complexity Complexity Complexity Regret Controlled By Reference To Text Adjust Treatment Technol- Medium Medium Medium Climate justified Utility ogy to New Effluent Com- position Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities Adjust Treatment Level to Medium High Low Climate justified Utility Dilution Capacity of Dis- charge Point Relocation of Flooded Medium High Medium Climate justified Utility Chapter 3.4.2 Wastewater Treatment Facilities 5. ConClusions For many water utilities climate change intensifies existing the inclusion of factors that are typically considered to be challenges, risks of demand and supply functions over the outside the traditional scope of operations in terms of their medium to long term for water and wastewater services, influence on a utility's assets. These could include consider- and adds additional complexities in day-to-day operations. ations such as spatial development, pollution control, and Effective adaptive responses to potential impacts of climate solid waste and storm water management. An additional change often compete with other priorities, poor public consideration for undertaking a vulnerability assessment is understanding of risks and a lack of available financial re- the identification of gaps in utility monitoring instruments sources. This is particularly true if required adaptation mea- related to its technical performance and operational costs sures call for significant infrastructure investments. which will be impacted by climate change. This study demonstrates how water utilities around the Building on the vulnerability assessments utilities can apply world are beginning to consider the potential impacts of an analytical framework to select appropriate adaptation. climate change and are gradually developing strategies for In the short and medium terms climate action plans should adaptation. Much of this knowledge remains poorly docu- establish criteria by which their success can be measured. mented and is largely unavailable to other utilities. There is a These might include reduced water loss, increased supply, need to overcome this knowledge gap through the design improved water quality or reduction in structural damage and implementation of simple, dynamic and flexible ap- through rehabilitation efforts. As a final step, the action plan proaches that allow utilities to learn from others. should provide timelines against which selected adaptation measures can be reassessed for appropriateness and for Urban water managers may wish to consider the follow- making necessary adjustments to the action plan itself. ing as practical responses to emerging climatic threats: (i) undertake climate vulnerability assessments and identify Successful adaptation to climate change for urban water perceived climatic risks, their likely impacts on water in- utilities will require a high level of cooperation and com- frastructure, operations and planning; (ii) prepare climate munication between sector stakeholders. Climate change action plans which identify, quantify and prioritize a range presents an opportunity to improve water consumers and of adaptation options, their associated cost and regrets users understanding of the potential impacts on water and analyses; (iii) strengthen communication and coordination wastewater operations, and how there is likely to be an with their consumers and concerned municipal authorities increased cost burden. Certain utilities have begun taking on the potential impacts of climate change; (iv) intensify steps to increase public awareness and engage municipal knowledge exchange between utilities of institutional and stakeholders on the issues of water and climate change. managerial experience on addressing climate change, re- These measures include fact sheets, websites, and public cording and disseminating impacts, and analyzing the cost meetings. Dedicated leadership from both within a utility efficiency and operational effectiveness of adopted adapta- and also from municipal officials is a critical input to this tion measures. process, as is the ongoing engagement of city managers. Undertaking vulnerability assessments will require, among Effective communication and coordination with sector other preparations, the completion of an inventory of as- stakeholders can be facilitated through the dissemination sets and the implementation of monitoring systems that and explanation of the climate vulnerability assessments consider intake, conveyance, storage, treatment, supply and and action plans to create awareness and understand- sewerage networks, wastewater treatment and disposal ing of associated risks and proposed responses. Presently, systems and drainage. Such assessments will benefit from water utilities are largely absent from many national level 33 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities planning discussions on climate change despite being at climate action plans to begin streamlining strategic re- the forefront of its impact, and conversely governments are sponses. Care must also be taken when considering climate often not involved in public campaigns on water conserva- change and its impact on urban water services, that it does tion or tariff policy for water services. In addition to improv- not become a justification for overdesigning capital projects ing the participation of utility representatives in climate and seeking unwarranted financing in the name of adapta- change dialogue, national governments should facilitate tion. Clearly, no-regret options will be on the priority list. flows of emerging climate related information to utilities, Critical review of urban water utilities suggests that there and equally assess the degree to which environmental is a scope to improve urban water services and suggested funds could support possible adaptation measures. priority areas with respect to climate change adaptation could include: 5.1 The role of the world bank · Infrastructure ­ intelligent and flexible design and operation; cross-sectoral projects; climate smart reha- One of the objectives of the World Bank is to support de- bilitation; and early warning systems velopment activities by addressing climate change issues · Technology ­ monitoring and assessment, efficiency in the urban water supply and sanitation (UWSS) sector. improvement and demand management The Bank's current portfolio of water related projects--USD · Economics and tradeoff ­ decision making under 8.7 billion between financial year 2006­2008, is planned to increased uncertainty and risk-based project economic increase to USD 10.6 billion for the year 2009­2010. Nearly analysis half of this budget is allocated to urban water supply and · Financing of adaptation ­ risk insurance (for systems sanitation services. and for customers, notably the poor) The implications of climate change may affect the develop- Funding from the Bank alone will not suffice and resources ment impact of World Bank projects in the urban water sup- from elsewhere will have to be generated. The Bank has to ply and sanitation sector and similarly reduce a nation's ca- encourage local and national governments to take owner- pacity to recuperate economic and financial losses incurred ship of the issues and leverage additional resources from from related impacts. The challenges require heightened other stakeholders including private-sector investments. cooperation at global scale and financial resources neces- The Bank is well positioned to strategically support urban sary to meet the costs of adaptation and mitigation while utilities interested in undertaking climate vulnerability as- providing sustainable services. sessments and climate action plans, assisting in the roll-out of decision-making support tools, and the development Yet there is a need to strategically target resources at un- and delivery of training programs related to adaptation for dertaking climate exposure assessments and utility specific urban water utilities. 34 annex 1: analysis of quesTionnaire The project team conducted interviews with 20 large utili- utilities serve more than 100 million people and supply ap- ties around the globe. The following Annex presents the proximately 5.4 km3 of water per year. Figure A.1.1 describes analysis of the replies and comments from the utilities. the location of the selected utilities on a world map. One of the reasons for selecting these particular utilities was Water supply for residential use was reported as the pri- to strengthen the ongoing efforts of the World Bank water mary responsibility of the water utilities covered under programs by documenting the current trends and iden- study. More than 90 percent of them were also engaged tifying future requirements to deal with the challenges of in water treatment and water supply for industrial purpos- climate change. Other criteria for selection were (a) intensity es. Other major responsibilities mentioned by the utilities of climate risk, (b) climate change affected region, (c) size were wastewater treatment and wholesale treated water of city, (d) availability of information on the current status supply. of water infrastructure including that of non-revenue water loss, coverage of water supply, and condition of reservoirs The data suggests that many cities and their utilities have and treatment plants; and (e) availability of indicator sets already begun to face extreme climatic variability and its such as water consumption, operational cost, tariff collec- effects on water resources. 80 percent of responding utili- tion ratio. ties have faced extreme droughts and more than 50 per- cent have gone through severe rain events (Figure A.1.3). Nineteen water utilities from across the globe were selected Nairobi Water Company had to apply water rationing due using these criteria (see table A.1.1). Collectively these to prolonged droughts and reduced rainfall between Figure A.1.1: Location of Participating Water Utilities 35 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities 2000­01 and 2008­09. This reduced the life of its water drainage system of Seattle, USA was designed. The historic infrastructure as it ran below the designed optimum ca- hydrologic pattern on which the system was based has pacity. On the other hand, the problem of greater intensity significantly altered following the intense rain events of in precipitation patterns was not anticipated when the recent years. Table A.1.1: Participating Water Utilities Population served Volume of water sold, Utilities City/Country (000) million m3/year SABESP Sao Paulo, Brazil 22,700 1,806 Istanbul Water and Sewerage Istanbul, Turkey 10,000 365 Administration Dhaka Water Supply and Sewage Dhaka, Bangladesh 9,100 302 Authority SEDAPAL Lima, Peru 7,311 395 Empresa de Acueducto y Alcantarillado Bogotá, Columbia 7,000 270 de Bogotá ROSVODOKANAL Russia 6,000 438 Hyderabad Metropolitan Water Supply Hyderabad, India 5,875 200 and Sewerage Board Ningbo Water Supply Company Ningbo, China 5,646 303 Manila Water Company Inc. Manila, Philippines 5,000 263 Public Utilities Board Singapore 4,840 177 Sénégalaise des Eaux Senegal 4,597 104 Melbourne Water Melbourne, Australia 3,400 310 Nairobi Water Nairobi, Kenya 3,000 168 Office National de l'Eau et de Burkina Faso 2,180 31 l'Assainissement Hanoi Water Works Hanoi, Vietnam 1,800 106 Seattle Public Utilities Seattle, USA 594 173 Rawalpindi Water and Sanitation Agency Rawalpindi, Pakistan 590 32 Dept Infrastructure, Water and Waste Windhoek, Namibia 219 17.5 Management Empresa Metropolitana de Seville, Spain 704 94.7 Abastecimiento y Saneamiento de Aguas de Sevilla 36 Annex 1: Analysis of Questionnaire Figure A.1.2: Services Provided by Water Utilities Water supply services for residential use Water treatment/disinfection of water supply Water supply for manufacturing/industrial use Wastewater treatment and management Bulk treated water supply (wholesale) Flood management Other: (e.g., ood protection, environmental management) Bulk untreated water supply (wholesale) Water supply for agricultural irrigation Coastal zone management 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Figure A.1.3: Cities Witnessing Climatic Events · Adaptation measures being implemented by the utili- ties as a response to potential climatic and operational impacts on their performance capacities, and Severe drought · The limiting factors on further actions. Severe rain events Each utility identified the potential risk areas and weighted them with a score from one to three (one is low, three is high) (Figure A.1.4). More than 50 percent of the utilities Severe ood identified decreased surface water as the highest risk to their business. This means that surface structures are the main sources of water to many utilities and they are more Hurricane susceptible to the negative impacts of climate change due 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% to reduced run-off or heavy rate of siltation during extreme rain events and reduced vegetation in catchments, high rate of evaporation etc. Utilities like ONEA in Burkina Faso, whose 70 percent of total water supply comes from dam Perception of vulnerability reservoirs face this challenge more severely. Other major concerns raised were increased urban demand for water The questionnaire sent to the water utilities attempted to (45 percent) and decreased surface water quality (42 per- capture qualitative and quantitative data on the following cent). Notably more than 30 percent of the utilities have aspects of climate change and adaptation measures: raised concerns about the difficulties faced in incorporating climate change risks into planning processes due to limita- · Recent extreme weather events affecting the ability of tions of climate models in predicting risks with accuracy. In the utilities to provide normal services fact, the changes in weather conditions across the world · Utilities plans to deal with the impacts of climate are so recent that it might prove to be too early to claim change and stakeholder involvement something based on the current trends. Furthermore, cli- · Assessment of vulnerability matic events remain volatile and render historic weather 37 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities Figure A.1.4: Perception of Exposure to Climate Change 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% India, Hyderabad Alexandria, Egypt Manila, Philippines Rosvodokanal Singapore Burkina Faso Ningbo, China Seattle, USA Istanbul, Turkey Vindhoek, Namibia Lima, Peru Kenya, Nairobi Rawlapindi, Pakistan Sabespe, Brazil Melbourne, Australia data unreliable in planning for the future. That is why even highest emphasis on reducing water consumption, improv- though they have been experiencing variability in rainfall, ing watershed management, and reducing non-revenue utilities such as Seattle are not in a position to say that that water losses due to leakages (Figure A.1.6). These measures climate was directly impacting their ability to manage their have a direct impact on the quality and efficiency of water functions. Similarly, currently ROSVODOKANAL in Russia supplied, and so have a positive impact on the performance does not make allowance for climate change factors in its of the utilities. Other significant actions taken by the utilities investment activities, because the utility judges it is too include increasing water augmentation from ground and early to conclude the estimates of the impact of climate surface sources, waste water treatment, better coordina- change on its performance. tion and management of infrastructure and incorporating climate change considerations into planning processes. In a response to a question asking the utilities about which However, not all these actions are taken explicitly to deal resources they use to estimate potential climate change with climate change. For example, Windhoek in Namibia is impacts, around 60 percent mentioned that they have com- located in the most arid region of sub-Saharan Africa and so missioned research studies to measure future impacts on the city's water utility has adapted water efficiency and use their business. The outcomes of one such study commis- of recycled water for many decades. Cities like Rawalpindi sioned by ISKI serving Istanbul in Turkey has projected that in Pakistan and Hyderabad in India are constantly searching the water potential of the city might decrease as much as for new sources of water due to increasing population pres- 14 percent in the next two decades. These studies played a sures in these cities. Even though these actions generate vital role in revising ISKI's financial plans and identifying the positive impact on the efficiency of the utilities, incorporat- need to develop effective strategies and adaptation plans. ing climate change risks in their planning will strengthen Other sources for more information on potential risks is the the utilities' resistance to deal with them. research done by other institutes, national governments, IPCC reports and climate change scenarios developed to Some cities and their utilities are taking steps to increase meet the requirements of the utilities (Figure A.1.5). public awareness and engage municipal stakeholders on the issue of water and climate change. These actions in- A wide variety of actions have been implemented to meet clude fact sheets, websites, and public meetings. The results the challenges, however 80 percent of the utilities put the show a mixed response from stakeholders to the issue of 38 Annex 1: Analysis of Questionnaire Figure A.1.5: Exposure to Potential Climate Change Impacts Decreased surface water quantity Increased urban demand for water Decreased surface water quality Increased competition for water resources Changes in watershed vegetation and ecology Damage to water supply facilities Inaccurate climate models and planning di culties More concentrated and earlier water ows Decreased groundwater/aquifer recharge and quantity Increased agricultural demand for water Submersion of water supply facilities Failure of combined-sewer over ow systems Saltwater intrusion; increased salinity of water supplies Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Figure A.1.6: Resources Used to Estimate Climate Change Impacts Research commissioned by your utility Research reports produced by others Reports f rom your national government IPCC (UN) reports Climate change scenarios developed by/for your utility 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% climate change. Universities and government agencies of the total utilities studied are deeply concerned about have been actively involved in the discussions on the im- the challenges, but according to them only 13 percent of pact of climate change, but participation from household their customers are sharing their concerns with the same and industrial customers is as low as 15 percent. This clearly intensity. indicates that the urgency and concerns felt by the utilities towards climate change risks are not echoed by their cus- Currently, it is a difficult task for most water utilities to take tomers in the same way. The analysis reveals that 67 percent definite actions to curb the impacts of climate change on 39 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities water delivery. The major limiting factor is the lack of suffi- the capacity of an urban water utility. To give an example: cient and accurate information on how the potential impacts the water distribution network in Nairobi, Kenya first built of climate change may affect the functioning of a particular in the early 1920s, now suffers heavy water loss. Nairobi utility. Even now, most of the climate change models are Water Company is lobbying the concerned government unable to predict climate change impacts at city level. On departments to get financial support for replacing it. Close the operational front, climate change adaptations need coordination and dedicated leadership from both within a huge investments in building new/ upgrading existing utility and also from municipal officials are seen as critical infrastructure, developing new sources and other such inputs to this process, as is ongoing engagement of city initiatives. Frequently, such huge investments are beyond managers. Figure A.1.7: Actions Taken by Utilities to Address Climate Change Reduce consumption Monitor changes to improve watershed Reduce non-revenue water (leakages) Strengthen water supply networkReduce Increase reservoir storage capacity Recycle waste water Rationalize allocation of water resources Improve inter-agency coordination Increase water treatment capacity Climate considerations in utility planning Building additional surface connections Reuse gray water Strengthen combined-sewer over ow facilities Protect watershed by discouraging Extracting additional groundwater Use vegetation to recharge grounwater aquifers Promotecrop mix & e cient outdoor water use Desalinize water Install ood barriers Move facilities to higher ground Other 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 40 Annex 1: Analysis of Questionnaire Figure A.1.8: Stakeholders Involvement in Climate Change Discussions National government agencies Universities and research organizations Local government agencies Private sector companies Civil society organizations (NGOs) Utility governing body Average customers Industrial Customers 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Figure A.1.9: Barriers to Action Lack of information about potential climate change impacts Uncertainty about climate change outcomes Lack of funding for adaptation measure investments Poor public understand and lack of public support Lack of funding for climate change planning Lack of coordination among government agencies Practice of decisions based on past events Lack of leadership within utility Other 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 41 annex 2: uTiliTies Taking aCTion The findings presented in this section are based on a desk ter. This has contributed to reducing flood-prone areas from review of relevant cases and an experience-sharing work- 3,200 hectares (ha) in the 1970s to 124 ha today; the inten- shop that took place in Madrid, Spain in January 2009. tion is to further reduce at risk areas to only 64 ha by 2011. Twenty large water utilities from around the globe partici- PUB is taking part in a vulnerability study to understand the pated at the workshop with many providing background impact and implications of climate change on the drainage papers and completing an internationally distributed ques- system. This includes the review of drainage design criteria tionnaire regarding climate change adaptation. (IDF curve), new flood maps taking into account climate change impacts and the review of minimum platform areas for developments and land reclamation. a.2.1 Public utilities board, singapore Development regulations have also been put in place for Urban region Singapore any land reclamation projects to ensure that the impacts of sea level rise can be avoided. Since 1991, all land recla- Population served, million 4.84 mation projects had to be built at least 125 cm above the Total Water supply (ml/day), 2005 1.20 highest recorded tide level. With hindsight, this requirement has put Singapore in a stronger position to deal with any Total Water supply (ml/day), 2008 1.26 future increases in sea levels arising from climate change as % Water resources, SW 80% the requirement exceeds the IPCC's AR4 projection of the highest sea level rise in the region, 59 cm, by the end of the % Water resources, GW 20% twenty-first century. Climate threats Sea rise Proactive planning, judicious land use, vigilant surveillance, strict enforcement and public participation are some of the PUB, the National Water Authority of Singapore has imple- main reasons for the successful implementation of PUB's mented a holistic approach in designing, implementing strategies. and analyzing its climate change adaptation strategy. PUB is conducting monitoring and streamlining the outcomes PUB's efforts have been strongly supported by other and predictions of various research studies in planning Singapore Government agencies. The Government has for self-sustainability in water supply augmentation. The developed a National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS), agency has also adopted a multi-facetted approach for which documents Singapore's past and ongoing efforts demand management which is a combination of strat- on climate change and sets out future plans to address egies for consumer behavior change, reducing unac- climate change in the areas of (i) vulnerability and ad- counted water losses to less than five percent, introducing aptation; (ii) mitigation, (iii) competency-building and a water conservation tax in addition to water pricing, and (iv) international participation. To better understand the enforcing mandatory and voluntary measures for water detailed effects and resulting impacts of climate change on conservation. Precautions have also been taken against Singapore, the Singapore government has commissioned unprecedented weather conditions such as intense rain, a study of Singapore's vulnerability to climate change. This flooding and high tides. study will project the changes in temperature, sea level and rainfall patterns in Singapore over this century, and their Major investments have been made to rehabilitate and results such as increased flooding and impacts on water separate the drainage system for storm water and wastewa- resources. 43 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities a.2.2 empresa metropolitana de This experience was central to the utility recognizing that abastecimiento y saneamiento long-term sustainability of water services could not be de aguas de sevilla (emasesa): achieved by boosting supplies alone. With the construction seville, spain of new reservoirs prohibited, the utility began an aggressive public campaign called `Save 55' (liters per person per day). Utility Name EMASESA The campaign aimed to educate and inform consumers of potential water savings in daily use and provide information Urban region Seville, Spain on water saving appliances. The results were very encourag- Population served, million NA ing with water consumption decreasing from 179 lpcd in 1991 to 129 lpcd in 2008. Total Water supply (ml/day), 2005 260 Total Water supply (ml/day), 2008 253 % Water resources, SW 100 a.2.3 seattle Public utility: seattle, usa % Water resources, GW 0 Utility Name Seattle Public Utilities Climate threats Decreased surface water Urban region Seattle, WA, USA quantity and quality Population served, 1.27 million With the onset of severe drought in the mid 1990s (see Total Water supply 577 figure A.2.1), and the strategic reserves dipping to a three (ml/day), 2005 month `red alert' level, the water utility of Seville, Spain Total Water supply 560 (EMASESA) was forced to consider a number of extreme (ml/day), 2008 measures. These included the seeding of clouds to produce % Water resources, SW 99 artificial rain, the importing of an iceberg, importing water by boat, and even the possible evacuation of the city. De- % Water resources, GW <1 spite these drastic options, and to overcome the unprec- Climate threats Failure of combined-sewer over- edented drought, the utility employed a number of crucial flow systems; Other: changes to preventative measures which focused on the optimization hydrologic patterns in the urban of internal facilities and the widespread promotion of re- environment affecting drainage and wastewater infrastructure sponsible use of water. The abundant mountain water and river resources that characterize greater Seattle provides some assurance to local government and the Seattle Public Utility (SPU) that there is sufficient resource capacity to meet current and forecasted water demand. Given the uncertainties in water demand forecasting, however, a proactive planning process that reduces long-term risks and incorporates potential cli- mate change impacts is being pursued. In Seville, consumers were reached through advertisements on buses, in schools and at the workplace. `Save Today the Water of Tomorrow' reads EMASESA's slogan. Currently, SPU serves approximately 1.3 million customers in the King County metropolitan area of Washington State. The Photo courtesy of EMASESA. Cedar River and the South Fork Tolt River watersheds pro- 44 Annex 2: Utilities Taking Action Figure A.2.1: Reservoir Volume, Seville: 1991­2006 Volúmenes Embalsados desde 1991 hasta 2006 (Aracena, Zufre, Minilla, Gergal y Cala) 500 hm3 Volumen (hm3) Capacidad de embalse con cala (453.67 hm3) ­ 01/11/2001 embalsado el 450 06/06 de: 400 2006: 247.94 2005: 307.56 350 2004: 410.91 2003: 427.24 300 Volumen embalsado a 1 de Mayo de 1991 2002: 429.53 2001: 408.04 250 2000: 237.11 1999: 234.02 200 1998: 379.27 1997: 370.06 150 1996: 404.43 1995: 41.20 100 1994: 90.38 1993: 31.22 50 Reservas estratégicas 1992: 97.89 1991: 255.84 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 El día 01/11/2001 se aplican las nuevas tablas de cubicación de Zufre. Datos a 07/06/2006 Volumen embalsado el 06/06/2006: 247.94 hm3 CENTRO PRINCIPAL DE CONTROL 54.65% de la capacidad de embalse. Generado por: Ignacio Ruiz Carrascal, el Miércoles 07 de Junio de 2006. Grá co de evolución de volúmenes embalsados vide much of the water for King County, but the estimated models to the local watershed (also known as downscaling 40­50 percent reduction in snowpack melt over recent techniques). years threatens reservoir recharge rates and ultimately long- term water supply reliability and management of these The study team used four loosely linked global climate watershed systems. models, applied statistical downscaling to the Cedar and Tolt watershed levels, and integrated the process with wa- SPU's challenges in planning include: preparing for possible tershed hydrology modeling and systems simulation mod- large shifts in demand from customers; changes in legal re- eling. These methods helped to reduce uncertainties and quirements such as those resulting from new in-stream flow project possible future climate impacts. The results included requirements under consideration in the region; potential projections of 1.4°F to 2.3°F temperature increases by 2040; environmental conservation issues; or an unforeseen severe more frequent low snow-pack years; and an average decline drought [Kersnar, 2006]. of 3.4 percent per decade in water supply. King County and SPU have engaged stakeholders and In partnership with the Cascade Water Alliance, Washington prepared adaptation plans to address adverse impacts of State Department of Ecology, and King County, SPU spon- climate change. SPU has engaged experts and technical sored additional research to identify possible improvements institutions to help it better understand and characterize cli- to operational flexibility in its systems. In its recent 5-year mate impacts and projections. In 2002, SPU partnered with plan, SPU identified several research and knowledge gaps. the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group to These included flood frequency, precipitation intensity and conduct a study on the potential impact of climate change timing, water demand, and the need to develop scenarios on its water supply, and to develop methods to better in- for conditions not yet experienced on record. Modeling corporate future climate change into its planning processes. to address the effects of these changes on operations was The results of this study included better developed meth- also needed. A key strategy for SPU is to address demand odologies for translating information from global circulation side stresses on the water systems by promoting and 45 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities Figure A.2.2: Water Demand and Supply Options, in this guidebook were water resources. Steps to assess Seattle Public Utilities vulnerabilities to climate change and methods to develop adaptation plans were developed. Uncertainty in Water Demand Forecast* 200 Between 2004 and 2006, the University of Washington ran 175 Firm four different global circulation models using the IPCC Spe- Yield 150 Annual Average MGD cial Report Emissions Scenarios, and downscaled them to 125 Actual better characterize local impacts at the Cedar and Tolt wa- Demand tershed levels. SPU created scenarios for 2020 and 2040 to 100 O cial Forecast examine potential impacts on decisions about future sup- 75 ply using the results from this study. The results included: 50 25 · In 2020, the study projected reduction in water sup- ply by 50,000 m3/day to 600,000 m3/day. Under this 0 scenario, there would be no impact on SPU's ability to 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 meet its projected demands in 2020. Percentile* · In 2040, the study projected a reduction in yield of ap- 80th­90th 70th­80th 60th­70th 50th­60th proximately 100,000 m3/day to 556,000m3/day. Existing 40th­50th 30th­40th 20th­30th 10th­20th sources should still be able to meet the demand fore- Note: Percentiles represent the probability that actual demand cast through to 2053, assuming no further decreases in will be less than the value shown. Ranges reflect uncertainty in yield after 2040. projected household, employment, price and income growth, price elasticity, income elasticity, and conservation. Note that SPU plans to continually analyze and refine its data gather- the Official Forecast is at about the 57th percentile. ing and information processing procedures in an effort to implementing water conservation programs. These initia- Figure A.2.3: Change in Peak Season Consumption tives are driven primarily by a desire to be proper stewards with Climate Change Scenarios of the region's natural resources, to stretch current water resources as far as possible, and to reduce costs, rather than 120% 113% Change in Peak Season Demand 107% 110% climate change [Kersnar, 2006]. 101% 100% 102% 102% 104% 104% 100% Relative to 2000 More broadly, in 2005, King County established a Global 80% Warming Action Team, comprising representatives from a 60% variety of county offices, including the budget office, water planning, solid waste, and other relevant departments. In 40% February 2007, the group produced the 2007 Climate Plan, 20% which laid out goals and actions across various sectors to address climate change impacts. 0% 2025 2050 2075 In September 2007, King County, in partnership with the Warm Warm Warm Scenario Scenario Scenario University of Washington and others, released a compre- GISS ER B1 Echam5_A2 IPSL_CM4_A2 hensive manual for municipal governments entitled Prepar- Peak season is May through September. Percent changes con- ing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, sider only climate change and do not include changes in the and State Governments. Among the sectors examined demand forecast. 46 Annex 2: Utilities Taking Action Figure A.2.4: Change in Water Supply with Climate Figure A.2.5: Increased Storage at Chester Morse Lake Change Scenarios Plus Tier 1 Response Increased storage design: 120% 100% Chester Morse Lake 101% 9% Maximum Elevation 101% 7% 1570 Percent of Historic Supply 100% 96% 10% 95% 11% 94% 9% 100% 90% 10% 87% 16% 90% 10% 1563 87% 8% 79% 12% 78% 13% 80% 1560 75% 11% 5996 Acre - Feet 1550 60% 1554 40% 20% <1554 Dead Storage 0% Historic 2000 2025 2050 2075 Masonry Dam Over ow Dike Warm Warm Warm Scenario Scenario Scenario Higher re ll Reduced seepage GISS ER B1 Echam5_A2 IPSL_CM4_A2 improve decision-making processes and better accom- Figure A.2.6: Lowered Drawdown at South Fork Tolt modate climate change factors. In addition, the utility has Reservoir identified a series of adaptation strategies to enhance its water supply system and reduce the impacts of climate Increased storage design: 100% change, including operational changes such as managing South Fork Tolt Reservoir flood storage capacity and reservoir refill, and investing in infrastructure development and retrofits. SPU's climate 1765 adaptation strategies, based on as much reliable data, pro- jections, and scenario simulations as possible, are aimed at ensuring that decisions do not result in unnecessary costs. In attempts to further manage the cost burden associated with climate change, SPU is encouraging improved system management and operational flexibility to allow for variabil- 1710 7517 Acre - Feet ity. In 2005 low snow pack reduced the probability of floods 1690 from snow melt. In response SPU captured more water in storage earlier than normal which facilitated returning to Lower drawdown normal supply conditions by early summer, despite the lowest snowpack on record. It also demonstrated the flex- ibility in the water system to adjust operations for changing weather conditions, whether they are low snowpack or ab- normal levels of precipitation. demand by 2030 through behavioral modification, pricing SPU's programs also help to mitigate demand side impacts strategies, technical assistance and incentives, promotion of and serve as insurance for managing future climate change. devices that reduce water use to residents and commercial The utility is aiming to conserve roughly 15% of current customers. 47 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities In addition, the utility has identified some alternative capi- late 1800s. It is a surface water supply system relying on tal investments for water supply. These alternatives were large surface storages to provide reliable supplies during illustrated in detail in the SPU 2007 Planning document drought periods. Total system storage capacity is 1,773,000 and include alternatives such as construction of a pump- megalitres (ML). The largest reservoir in the system is Thom- ing station at Chester Morse Lake (USD$26.2 million); a son Reservoir, which has a capacity of 1,068,000 ML, which river diversion project at North Fork Tolt (USD$179 million); is equivalent to around four times the mean annual stream- and the development of the Snoqualmie Aquifer, with a flow. Storage volumes are heavily influenced by climate new filtration plant, pump station and associated pipelines variability and change. (USD$114.9 million). [Kersnar, 2006] Since 1997, south eastern Australia has had an extended pe- riod of below average rainfall and higher temperatures. This a.2.4 melbourne water: melbourne, has resulted in streamflows into Melbourne's main water australia storages being around 39% below the long term average recorded to 1996 (see Figure A.2.7) and storage volumes Utility Name Melbourne Water falling from full capacity levels in 1996 to levels (December 2008) of around 34%. The reduction in streamflow since Urban region Melbourne, Australia 1996 has exceeded the projected severe climate change Population served, 3.8 reductions for 2050. million In 2005 Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Re- Total Water supply 261 (ml/day), 2005 search Organisation (CSIRO) and Melbourne Water completed a major collaborative study to assess the implications of cli- Total Water supply 286 mate change for Melbourne's water supply system. This study (ml/day), 2008 identified over 150 risk areas for Melbourne's water, sewerage % Water resources, SW 100 and drainage systems and included detailed case studies on % Water resources, GW 0 long term water supply/demand, urban flooding and sewer overflows from the trunk sewer system (see Box A.2.1). The Climate threats Decreased surface water quantity; study projected changes in temperature, evaporation, rainfall, Increased urban demand for water; Increased agricultural demand streamflow and yield in 2020 and 2050 (see Table A.2.1). for water; Changes in watershed vegetation and ecology; Inaccurate Melbourne Water's impact analyses and climate change climate models and planning dif- ficulties; Increased competition for adaptation process have included stakeholder engage- water resources ment, starting with internal company meetings and ex- tending to public workshops. This outreach was aimed at better understanding stakeholder perspectives on climate Climate change is recognized as presenting significant change impact on its water systems, and including these in risks and challenges to the water industry and Melbourne methodologies and techniques for impact assessments. The Water works collaboratively with the Victorian Govern- following three major risk areas related to climate change ment, particularly the Department of Sustainability and impacts were identified: Environment, in areas related to climate change and the assessment and management of associated impacts on · Water supply systems where the primary risks are the water sector. reduced water quantity, deterioration of water qual- ity, and increased wildfire incidents due to decreased The Melbourne water supply system supplies a population precipitation and stream flows. Wildfire poses extreme of around 3.8 million people and has developed since the risks to water quality. 48 Annex 2: Utilities Taking Action Figure A.2.7: Melbourne Water Storage Since 1992 2,000,000 Total System Storage Capacity 1,800,000 1,600,000 Storage Volume (ML) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 Stage 1 800,000 Stage 2 Stage 3 600,000 Stage 4 400,000 200,000 0 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Date box a.2.1: Potential Climate Change related impacts, melbourne · Water supply: · Reductions in rainfall and changes to rainfall-runoff processes leading to reduced water supply yield and availability · Changes in drought frequency and variability of seasonal rainfall and streamflow patterns with associated implications for water supply yield, system operations, water quality and in stream environmental health. · Increased risk of bushfires in catchment areas and associated risk of water quality issues and long term reductions in streamflow due to the re-growth characteristics of Melbourne's forested catchments · Reduced environmental conditions with associated implications for water harvesting in regulated and unregulated streams · Changes to water demands due to higher temperatures and changes in water use patterns · Changes to estimates of probable maximum rainfall with implications for the design of major spillways · Sewerage Systems · Increased potential for corrosion and odours in the sewerage network as a result of increased sewage concentrations associated with water conservation, increasing ambient and seasonal temperatures, and longer travel times within the sewer network · Increased incidence of sewer overflows due to increased rainfall intensity during storms · Changes to infiltration rates in sewer systems · Increased risk of pipe failure and collapse due to changed soil moisture levels and associated subsidence · Increased salinity levels in recycled water due to rising sea levels resulting in increased infiltration to sewerage network and at wastewater treatment plants · Drainage · Increased flooding risk and property damage due to increased rainfall intensity during storms · Increased risk of damage to stormwater infrastructure and facilities (e.g. underground drains, levee banks, pump stations etc) due to higher peak flows · Receiving waters · Reduced health of waterways due to changes in base flows · Potential for negative water quality impacts in Port Phillip Bay due to increased concentration of pollutants entering the Bay (as a result of longer periods between runoff events and then high intensity events leading to concentrated pollutant runoff ), and higher ambient Bay water temperatures. 49 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities Table A.2.1: Melbourne Water Projected Climate Change Impacts 2020 2050 Temperature 0.3°C to 1.0°C (mid range 0.5°C) 0.6°C to 2.5°C (mid range 1.4°C) Evaporation 1% to 7% (mid range 3%) 3% to 18% (mid 8%) Rainfall ­5 % to ­0% (mid range ­2%) ­13 % to 1 % (mid range ­4%) Streamflow ­3 % to ­11% (mid range­7%) ­7 % to ­35 % (mid range ­18%) Yield ­4 % to ­15% (mid range ­8%) ­10 % to ­40% (mid range ­20%) · Sewerage systems, where there are four primary risks: in- · Improve sensitivity and risk assessments by looking at creased siltation in sewerage systems due to water conser- cumulative factors and impacts, examining more case vation, increasing temperatures, and subsequent corrosion studies of high-risk and worst case scenarios for les- of piping systems; increased incidence of sewer overflows sons learned, and identifying best practices to reduce from more intense rainfalls; increased risk of pipe failure uncertainties and risks in climate and hydrological and collapse due to dry soil conditions; and increased sa- projections linity levels in recycled water from rising sea levels. · Consider climate change impacts carefully in the de- · Drainage, where there is a risk of increased flooding sign, planning and operation of major resource man- and property damage from more intense storms, and agement systems an increased risk of damage to storm water infrastruc- · Promote no-regrets policy options ture and facilities due to higher peak flows. · Explore potential adaptation measures such as desali- nation, recycling, markets and pricing Potential adaptation measures were identified for each of · Prioritize planned activities to maximize resilience the above components of the Melbourne Water service ar- against climate change eas. Regarding the water supply component, the following · Review engineering design criteria adopted for plan- adaptation measures were proposed: ning purposes Figure A.2.8: Melbourne's Communication Campaign Photos courtesy of Melbourne Water 50 Annex 2: Utilities Taking Action Melbourne Water pursues an aggressive public awareness The City of Windhoek has not specifically embraced the campaign in response to the extended drought that the possible effects of climate change in its long term plan- region has been experiencing for more than a decade. This ning for water supply. It is a fact that everything the city includes regularly publishing brochures and booklets, an- administration plans, hinges on the availability of water as nouncing rainfall quantities, river levels and storage volume Windhoek has been living the effects of climate change of their reservoirs, providing weekly water updates and for many years and variable weather patterns are the norm restrictions information, and advertising through various for its area. Since the early seventies, Windhoek has relied media channels and in city taxis. heavily on surface water collected from a random rainfall pattern, leading to a situation where the conjunctive use No financial subsidies are provided by Federal or State of groundwater, surface water and purified wastewater has Government for climate change adaptation, mitigation become an integral part of water supply. Wastewater is fully or drought response activities for Melbourne's water recognized as a resource and potable water could contain supplies. The metropolitan water sector funds all capital up to 35% reclaimed water. and operational activities through charges on water customers which comprise a service charge, a pay for use component consisting of a rising block tariff and a Water resources sewerage disposal change. Melbourne Water recovers The City of Windhoek is situated in the central highlands of its costs through charges to the retail water companies. the country. The country's only perennial rivers are located The water prices are expected to double by 2012/13 to in the very south, and the very north roughly 900 and 750 recover the costs for supply augmentations and other km from Windhoek. In the interior, there are only ephemeral activities. rivers. These normally run for 1 to 4 days after a rainfall event. With an annual rainfall of 360 mm, and an annual evapora- a.2.5 City of windhoek, namibia tion of 3400mm, water supply to a growing Windhoek, re- mained very difficult. Between 1973 and 1987, Government built three dams, combined capacity of 154 Mm³ (95% Utility Name Water and Waste Management assured yield of 17 Mm³ and 98% assured yield of 6 Mm³ Urban region Windhoek, Namibia p/a) on ephemeral rivers between 70 and 200 km from Population served, million 3 Windhoek. These dams were totally dependent on seasonal rainfall and extremely susceptible to evaporation. Total Water supply 55 (ml/day), 2005 The supply to Windhoek is also improved by bringing water Total Water supply 60 from the Tsumeb and Grootfontein Karst areas, which is (ml/day), 2008 some 525 kilometres from Windhoek. This water is trans- % Water resources, SW 65­80 ported in an open canal over a distance of 300 kilometres to the first of the three dams, from where it is pumped to the % Water resources, GW 5­20 main storage dam, where water from all three dams is treat- % Water resource, 15­35 ed before being pumped over 70 kilometres to Windhoek. Reclaimed Climate threats Decreased surface water quan- The long term defined augmentation option for Windhoek, tity and quality; Decreased is to pump water from the Okavango River over a distance groundwater / aquifer recharge of 350 kilometres and an elevation of 800 metres to Groot- and quantity fontein. From there the water gravitate via open canal to 51 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities the Omatako Dam, from where it will be pumped via exist- at cost recovery tariff and a penal block above 36 m³, cal- ing pipeline to the Von Bach Dam, where water from all culated at long run marginal cost, currently roughly double three dams is treated before it is pumped to Windhoek. cost recovery. Due to the extreme evaporation rate, it is mandatory for all The Goreangab Water Reclamation Plant private swimming pools to be covered when not in use. All The continued stressed water supply situation and unavail- new water installations are to be fitted with low flush cis- ability of alternative sources, led the City to use sewage terns and water saving shower heads and taps. Public facili- effluent as a water resource. Experimental work started in ties are not allowed to have self flushing urinals. the early 1960's with a pilot plant at Windhoek's Gammams Sewage Plant (Gammams) and another pilot plant in Preto- The City promotes the establishment of drought resistant ria. After a number of years of experimental work at the two gardens and during times of short supply, hose pipe bans pilot plants, and upon the achievement of favorable results, and restricted hours of garden irrigation is enforced. This the Municipal Council of Windhoek, resolved to implement has led to a marked reduction in sizes of cultivated gardens potable reclamation in Windhoek. The Goreangab water and people in the City being water aware. In cases of exces- treatment plant was converted to treat water from the sive use, the City would install flow limiting devices to sup- Goreangab Dam as well as treated sewage effluent from ply points. Gammams. Water demand management has slowed the growth in de- The final product water is blended with borehole water mand and reduced the per capita water demand from 252 before distribution to the City. This was the start of direct lpcd in 1996 to 198 lpcd in 2008 potable reclamation at Goreangab Water Reclamation Plant (GWRP). The Goreangab plant had an initial capacity of 4300 m³ per day, and could supply up to 25% of the daily de- Semi purified irrigation mand at the time. During 1993, Windhoek introduced a dual pipe system to supply all parks and sports fields with semi purified irriga- The GWRP was upgraded four times between 1969 and tion water. Due to high evaporation rates, irrigation require- 1992. By 1992 the capacity of the GWRP was 7500m³ per ments for sports fields are high and equates to roughly day, meaning that 15% of demand could be satisfied from 1000 mm per year. Due to the unavailability of fresh water, reclamation. During the drought of 1996, the main sup- secondary treated waste water is put through the Old ply dam serving the City went below 6% and water had Goreangab Reclamation plant where it is treated via dis- to be taken from an emergency storage. Feasibility stud- solved air floatation (DAF), sand filters and light chlorina- ies indicated that increased reclamation of sewage was tion, before being distributed through the dual pipe sys- the only readily available option and in 1999 construc- tem and three reservoirs. This water is made available at a tion on a new reclamation plant of 21Mm³ per day was subsidized tariff and makes it possible to have City gardens started. The New Goreangab reclamation plant was put and sports fields of fair quality. The current capacity for the into operation in 2002 and forms one of the pillars in the supply of irrigation water is 5mm³ per day, and includes supply chain to the City, supplying up to 35% of the daily one golf course, which is fully irrigated with semi purified demand of the City. waste water. Water demand management Artificial aquifer recharge Measures implemented included rising block tariffs provid- The City is built on a substantial aquifer. The limiting factor ing for a lifeline support of 6m³ per household per month however, is that the natural recharge of the aquifer on aver- at a subsidized tariff, a middle block up to 36m³ per month age, is calculated as 1.73 Mm³ per annum. This means that 52 Annex 2: Utilities Taking Action in the time it has been exploited, the aquifer has been over- Water system financing exploited by some 22 Mm³, which is equivalent to the cur- New infrastructure is financed from loans, either from own rent annual demand of Windhoek. Due to the variable in- resources or commercial sources. During 1997 / 1998 the flow into the three dams serving Windhoek (83%) and other City concluded loans from the German Development Bank consumers (17%) in the Central Areas of Namibia (CAN), an (KfW), and the European Investment Bank (EIB), for the operational regime has been introduced where, after each construction of the New Goreangab Reclamation Plant and rainy season, the available water is allocated such that the other water and waste water infrastructure. These loans water will last until after two subsequent rainy seasons, if have 20 yr periods and were obtained at interest rates of no additional inflow is received. This requires the dams to 7% and 11% respectively. The City has been attempting to be operated at the highest possible levels, which makes it find 20 million in donor funding for the artificial recharge extremely susceptible to evaporation. project, but has been unsuccessful. Financing of the water operations comes from a two tier tariff: "availability charge" Windhoek started in 1997 to investigate the feasibility and a "consumption charge". The availability charge is aimed of artificially recharging the Windhoek aquifer, which is at recovering the capital cost and the consumption charge a highly fractured hard rock aquifer. This feasibility study, is aimed at recovering operational cost. as well as a study commissioned by Bulk Water Supplier, NamWater in 2004, confirmed that the project was indeed the best option for augmentation of water supply to Wind- a.2.6 new york City: new york, usa hoek. Agreement was reached that at all times when the main storage dam was above 40%, all surplus water would be treated to potable standard and stored in the Windhoek Utility Name New York City Department of Environmental Protection Aquifer. During drought periods, the aquifer would then be able to meet the City's needs for up to two years. As soon Urban region New York City, NY, USA as the dams receive inflow, the water bank in the aquifer Population served, million can then again be recharged. This project does not add additional sources of supply, but optimizes the currently Total Water supply 5.00 (ml/day), 2005 available sources and secures the supply situation to ac- ceptable level. Total Water supply 5.12 (ml/day), 2008 % Water resources, SW 90% Aquifer protection measures During 1999/2000, the City undertook an aquifer vulner- % Water resources, GW 10% ability study, followed by an environmental structure plan Climate threats Water quality impairment from for the Southern Windhoek bowl. From these studies, it extreme events and temperature became evident that, due to open geological structures in a rise, Flood damage from sea level rise and extreme events highly fractured aquifer zone, development in the southern part of the bowl should be limited. In order to protect the aquifer, the City resolved to reduce the available number of developable residential plots in this area, from 17 000 The watershed of New York City's 19 reservoirs and three to 7000 plots. The loss of these plots in an area already lakes includes parts of eight counties. Its water supply sys- short on developable land, as well as the loss of potential tem includes two surface water supply systems with a total revenue from the sale of these plots, is a clear indication of of 580 billion gallon capacity (Catskill/Delaware Watershed the City's commitment towards planning for water security. and Croton Watershed); one groundwater system (Brook- The Windhoek aquifer was similarly accepted as a strategic lyn/Queens Aquifer); and 23 total lakes and reservoirs. The resource which has to be protected at all cost. New York City Department of Environmental Protection 53 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities (NYCDEP) is responsible for operating and protecting New land, water, energy, transportation and climate change. An York's water supply system, which serves nine million resi- advisory board comprised of a variety of public and private dents. The system delivers about 1.35 billion gallons of wa- sector stakeholders has been tasked with helping the city ter per day [Lloyd, 2005]. develop a risk-based cost benefit assessment process and to assess strategies to protect against flooding and storm The city's location on the bank of a river and proximity to surges. the coast make it particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts such as sea level rise and flooding. The size and The NYCDEP and its partners have examined in detail importance of the city's at-risk assets make planning for cli- a variety of the potential impacts of climate change on mate change an imperative. the various water systems and services for local utilities. Impacts were examined on water supply services, water Public awareness and partnerships with a range of public distributions and sewer systems, and wastewater treatment and private institutions are cornerstones of NYC's approach systems. The city has also proposed a range of adaptation to addressing urban environmental sustainability and par- options which are at various stages of planning and imple- ticularly climate change impacts. Partners in the city's cli- mentation. Some of the recently identified impact assess- mate change efforts have included a number of universities ments and adaptation measures by the NYCDEP include: (Columbia University, Hunter College, the State University of New York), federal agencies such as the National Aeronautic · Water quality impairment from extreme events and and Space Administration and the Environmental Protec- temperature rise. Heavy rains can increase pathogen tion Agency, private companies, and non-governmental levels and turbidity and increase the need for filtration, organizations. The city and its partners prepared a compre- which could be prohibitively expensive. The city esti- hensive climate change impact assessment in 2000, pub- mates that filtering the Catskill/Delaware water supply lishing Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of would cost USD$5­USD$10 billion for a plant, plus the Metropolitan East Coast Region. USD$300­USD$500 million for annual operation and maintenance. Possible adaptation measures include The report reviews the conditions and stressors on six ur- acquiring more watershed land and more intensive ban systems: coasts, wetlands, water, energy, infrastructure management of forests. and health. The report assessed the vulnerabilities of these · Flood damage from extreme events. Communities resid- systems to climate change, and developed climate trend ing within NYC's watershed will likely experience more scenarios using historical climate information and projec- flooding as a result of climate change. One significant tions generated from global climate models that have challenge for NYC's reservoirs, however, is that they are been downscaled to the New York metropolitan area. These not designed for rapid releases. This would be needed climate change scenarios helped to better identify areas for typical flood control reservoirs, where billions of of special vulnerability to flooding, hot weather, and other gallons of water may need to be released from the climate change impacts. NYC reservoirs once they reach a certain capacity level. Releasing water from the reservoirs as a flood control NYCDEP established a Climate Change Task Force in col- measure might reduce the water supply for NYC; thus laboration with Columbia University in 2004. In 2006, the authorities have to find a balance between flood the city established an Office of Long-term Planning and control needs and water supply needs. Using current Sustainability, tasked with helping to integrate adaptation water supply reservoirs as flood control reservoirs is be- into long-term sustainability planning for the city. Climate ing considered as a possible adaptation measure. change was part of Mayor Bloomberg's challenge to the · Flood damage from sea level rise and extreme events. city on Earth Day 2007, where he announced "PlaNYC 2030," High sea levels and heavy rains can cause sewer back- which aims to improve the city's urban environment by up and extensive flooding of streets and basements. focusing on six key elements of the city's environment: air, Adaptation options include expanding urban greening 54 Annex 2: Utilities Taking Action programs, such as the increasingly popular and effec- The Philippines' water sector is one of the sectors most tive "green roofs" initiatives, expansion of other urban affected by climate change. In November 2007, Manila green spaces, and soil erosion and sediment control Water launched its climate change policy which places programs to mitigate the impact of storm-water runoff. a strong emphasis on mitigation of climate change. The Construction or reinforcement of flood walls is also an policy highlights four commitments that the company will adaptation option to protect water utilities from po- undertake. tential flood damage due to sea level rise. Development and implementation of a carbon man- New York City views adaptation from the perspective of all agement plan: Manila Water is currently developing its critical urban infrastructure, including water supply, waste- carbon management plan and finalizing its 2007 and water treatment, and sewerage systems. Going forward, 2008 carbon footprint. Once the figures have been final- a citywide strategic planning process for climate change ized, Manila Water will report them to key stakeholders adaptation is underway. Through this process, site-specific along with the carbon reduction targets. The company strategies will be developed for vulnerable neighborhoods. has also started its awareness campaign on Climate The city will continue to work with scientific research insti- change aimed at employees as initial audience, and even- tutions to reduce uncertainties in climate impact projec- tually all other stakeholders including business partners tions and to support decision making. NYCDEP and local and customers. utilities will also aim to reduce vulnerabilities to the water supply by addressing demand side pressures, such as pro- Improvement in energy consumption and utilization of moting water conservation and water efficiency measures, renewable energy: retrofits, and re-designs of existing infrastructure to pro- mote system flexibility. · Reducing Water Losses: For the past 10 years, Manila Water's pipe replacement programs have contributed to the massive decrease in systems losses, from 63% in a.2.7 manila water Company: manila, 1997 to 20% as of October 2008, giving a 482 million Philippines liter per day (mld) water saving. In turn, the reduction of non-revenue water resulted in more water supply Utility Name Manila Water Company Inc for customers and lessened the need to develop new water sources. Urban region Metro Manila, Philippines · Energy Efficiency: With the goal of conserving resources, Population served, million 5.6 Manila Water's new service improvement plan ensures that all new facilities will be operated at a minimal cost Total Water supply 864 (ml/day), 2005 by considering power efficiencies in the design stage, therefore ensuring reduction in power consumption Total Water supply 1,060 despite expansion programs. The company's power (ml/day), 2008 efficiency initiatives include systems modeling and % Water resources, SW 99 investigation of optimal setting, pump refurbishment, % Water resources, GW 1 power factor correction and use of power monitoring equipment for larger facilities. Climate threats Decreased surface water quan- · Waste-to-energy: In response to global warming, tity and quality; Increased urban demand for water; Damage to Manila Water also started the construction of its first- water supply facilities; Changes ever waste to-energy project within the Ayala South in watershed vegetation and Wastewater Treatment Plant located in Makati City, the ecology; Increased competition central business district of the Philippines. Said proj- for water resources ect hopes to recover energy from wastewater sludge 55 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities and use it to run the plant, thereby rendering it self- and only 1% from groundwater. The company's service sufficient and helping reduce the company's carbon expansion plans include elimination of all deep wells, footprint at the same time. providing the entire service area with 100% renewable · Biosolids Management: Manila Water recognized the key surface water supply. role of biosolids in response to global warming. Thus, · New Water Resources: To mitigate the risk of supply the company is currently studying the means to recy- deficiency caused by unreliable water supply due cle biosolids to enhance yields of biodiesel producing to Climate change, Manila Water has continuously Jathropa curcas, and initiating steps towards producing been developing new water resources. Presently, a electricity from biogas generated from digesting bio- number of potential water resources such as Laiban solids. Manila Water is also aiming to start an ecofarm Dam and Rizal Province Water Supply Improvement that will intertwine biosolids processing and recycling Project are being developed to ensure reliability of with carbon-reducing initiatives. supply. · Laiban Dam Project: To meet the growing de- Integration of Climate change in medium- and long- mand in the next 10 years, the Laiban Dam term operations: Project, in coordination with the Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System (MWSS) is · Recycling Water: Consistent with its aim of preserving planned to be developed by 2014 to utilize sur- the natural environment, Manila Water is continu- face water from the Kaliwa River in Tanay, Rizal ously finding ways to make optimal use of available (which is located 57 km east of Metro Manila). resources. In 2007, the company signed an agree- Other components of the project include raw ment to provide recycled water to the technological water conveyance pipes, hydropower plant, wa- park in Quezon City, marking the first ever wastewa- ter treatment plant, treated water conveyance, ter effluent reuse in Metro Manila. Manila Water will pumping station and reservoir. Total project deliver at least 4mld of recycled water to the park by cost is P25.002 million for phase 1 to be shared mid-2009. equally with Maynilad Water, the West Zone con- · Combined-Sewer Drainage System: The Pineda-Kapitolyo cessionaire, and target capacity volume is 1,900 Sewage Treatment Plant (STP) will be the first sewage- mld by 2014. drainage system in the Philippines, which will treat · Rizal Province Water Supply Improvement Project sewage and storm flows of up to 4,000 cubic meters (RPWSIP): The RPWSIP is a new water resource per day before discharging to one of the major rivers project located along the peripherals of the in Metro Manila, the Pasig River. With a World Bank- largest lake in the Philippines, Laguna Lake. The assisted loan, the STP is expected to benefit 18,000 project is expected to deliver a total of 100 mld of residents. This project is one of the three initiatives additional water supply by 2009 to 2012 to meet under the Riverbanks Sewerage System component the demand of Rizal province which is just 20 km of the Manila Third Sewerage Project which aims to east of Metro Manila. rehabilitate the Pasig river system, restore water quality, · Protection of watersheds: Manila Water supplies 99% of promote urban renewal along the riverbanks, and con- its water from surface water that is sourced from the trol wastewater discharges. watersheds of Angat, Ipo and La Mesa. Unfortunately, · Groundwater Protection: In response to water depletion due to the activities around the watersheds, only 30% caused by excessive use of groundwater, Manila Water of the total 665 sq. km watershed area is forest-cov- has fast tracked and successfully completed numerous ered. Given this, Manila Water has been aggressive in service improvement projects to supply surface water pursuing the rehabilitation of the watersheds through to the rest of its service area. Manila Water is currently the Adopt-a-Watershed program in partnership with sourcing 99% of its water supply from surface water, various stakeholders. 56 Annex 2: Utilities Taking Action a.2.8 istanbul water and sewerage transfer projects from adjacent basins situated up to 150 km administration (iski): istanbul, away. Turkey ISKI put a number of structural and non-structural adapta- Utility Name Istanbul Water And Sewerage tion plans into action: Administration (ISKI) · A successful water saving campaign to encourage con- Urban region Istanbul, Turkey sumers to use water more efficiently to avoid possible Population served, million 12.6 rationing. Water savings campaigns are now recog- nized as an important measure in raising awareness of Total Water supply 1,912 (ml/day), 2005 climate change and appropriate utilization of limited freshwater resources. Total Water supply 1,850 (ml/day), 2008 · Istanbul has established a specific target to reduce the amount of water losses to support and implement the % Water resources, SW 95 climate change adaptation plans. % Water resources, GW 5 · An integration system was put in place across the city's reservoirs to prevent any reservoir from running dry. Climate threats Decreased surface water quantity The integration system allows for water to be pumped and quality; Damage to water supply facilities; Inaccurate cli- from one reservoir to another to prevent the possibility mate models and planning dif- of water cuts in some areas of the city. ficulties · The Melen Project Phase I became operational in late 2007 which transfers an additional 268 million m3 of water per year from an adjacent basin for treatment In recent years, Istanbul has suffered from a period of seri- and distribution. ous drought which recorded the lowest rainfall of last · Through the Melen River Project, which was initiated 50 years. In 2006 the measured rainfall of 66.7 mm was a in 1997, pipelines were laid under the Bosporus. It is record low, the average being 257.2 mm per year. In late projected that as much as 300,000 m3 of water will be 2007, many of the city's drinking water reservoirs which carried through the pipeline daily to meet the water provide water for 12 million residents had decreased to a needs of 4 million people in Istanbul. record low 8.96 percent of capacity. ISKI is becoming in- · ISKI initiated the construction of new wells to increase creasingly concerned over the potential long term impacts conjunctive use of groundwater to provide greater of climate change as recent calculations suggest that the flexibility in supply of water resources. Through the de- water supplies for the city may decrease by as much as velopment of 197 wells, the city is provided with 20­25 14% in the following two decades. The combination of the million m3 of water per year. drought being currently experienced and the long term · Approximately 2 million m3 of wastewater is treated climate change projections has placed ISKI under great daily in Istanbul and is recognized as an important pressure to ensure the sustainability of Istanbul's water sup- resource needed to meet increasing water demands. ply services. Through reclamation projects, treated water shall be used in watering of parks and gardens, sport facilities The first response to the crisis imposed by the drought was and recreational areas as well as industrial use and fire to revise investment plans in order to manage the risks fighting. imposed on the sustainability of water recourses. The util- ity recognized the need to develop effective strategies and ISKI is placing increased emphasis on monitoring and adaptation plans, which prompted the consideration of research on climate change and the related impacts on alternatives including water saving campaigns, and water water resources. Importantly, this includes consideration 57 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities of regulatory changes that will be required to ease opera- es, which applies a number of global circulation models to tional and financial burdens associated with implementing Istanbul with the objective of estimating hydrological ex- climate adaptation measures. The utility has commissioned tremes including the frequency and intensity of droughts a research study, Affects of Climate Change on Water Resourc- and floods. 58 annex 3: searChing for soluTions a.3.1 water and sanitation agency: ing, and it is reported to be polluted with e-coli, feacal rawalpindi, Pakistan coliforms and other bacteriological contamination as a result of poor sanitation and lack of proper wastewater Utility Name Water and Sanitation Agency treatment facility (Government of Punjab and Asian De- velopment Bank, 2004). Urban region Rawalpindi, Punjab, Pakistan Population served, million 1.1 The utility is attempting to address many of these pre-ex- isting and interconnected water quality issues. However, Total Water supply 232 there are risks to the financial sustainability of the utility, (ml/day), 2005 as during periods of low stream flow balancing permit- Total Water supply 250 ted discharge volumes and effluent quality will be critical (ml/day), 2008 as it may require additional investments in wastewater % Water resources, SW 55 treatment. % Water resources, GW 45 Climate threats Decreased surface water quantity a.3.2 office national de l'eau et de and quality; Decreased ground- water / aquifer recharge and l'assainissement (onea): quantity; Increased urban de- burkina faso mand for water; Changes in wa- tershed vegetation and ecology; Utility Name ONEA: Office National de l'Eau et de Increased competition for water l'Assainissement resources Urban region Ouagadougou, BURKINA FASO Population served, 2.33 Rawalpindi is situated in north Pakistan with rocky pla- million teaus and alluvium patches beneath it. The Rawalpindi Total Water supply 93 water utility serves some 1.1 million people, and is sup- (ml/day), 2005 plied by 45% groundwater and 55% surface water. The Total Water supply 118 utility experienced high commercial and technical water (ml/day), 2008 losses. In extracting an estimated 10 times more than the volume needed for its customers, it was depleting % Water resources, SW Yes (NA) groundwater resources and incurring high energy costs % Water resources, GW Yes (NA) for pumping. Climate threats Decreased surface water quantity and quality; Decreased groundwater / aqui- As a part of its climate change adaption measures the fer recharge and quantity; Increased utility is planning to expand the capacity of the both competition for water resources groundwater and surface water sources and to increase storage capacity. The utility faces a multitude of chal- lenges, however, in undertaking the proposed actions. The national water utility of Burkina Faso, ONEA, relies on Groundwater in the region is an unreliable source of surface water from dam reservoirs for 70% its supply. This sustainable supply as the water tables are sharply declin- heavy dependency on a single source has been identified 59 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities as a significant risk to the utility as its supply is vulnerable to a.3.3 nairobi water Company: nairobi, reduced precipitation levels and higher evaporation losses kenya as a result of rising temperatures. Utility Name Nairobi Water Company Improving ONEA's flexibility in supply, however, is ham- pered by the geology of Burkina Faso; 80% of the country Urban region Nairobi City, Kenya is underlain by fractured bedrock making use of ground- Population served, 3 million, Plus 2 million floating water unreliable. It is reported that the majority of the million 220 wells have little capacity beyond 10­15 m3/h and the Total Water supply 261 water table becomes further exacerbated by reduced (ml/day), 2005 precipitation levels. Hydrological variability is also affect- Total Water supply 286 ing the utility, as monitoring of isolines of average rainfall (ml/day), 2008 indicated a shift of approximately 100 kilometers from north to south over 50 years resulting in greater frequency % Water resources, SW 100 of droughts. % Water resources, GW 0 Given that ONEA's challenges are predominately supply Climate threats Decreased surface water quantity; Increased urban demand for water; drive, the utility is undertaking careful monitoring of its Damage to water supply facilities; resource and taking steps to improve demand manage- Changes in watershed vegetation and ment through rationalization of consumption with me- ecology; Inaccurate climate models and planning difficulties; Increased ters for all connections, the implementation of progres- competition for water resources sive tariff blocks, sensitizing consumers to avoid water wasting. A Council within the Ministry of Environment has been cre- Nairobi Water Company (NWC) reports that the influences ated to begin addressing national concerns related to cli- of climate change are having notable affects on water mate changes and a national action plan has been adopt- availability and service provision. Reduced levels of rain- ed. Of twelve projects identified as being of importance, fall have diminished groundwater recharge and available one specifically focuses on sedimentation in reservoirs and surface water in the utility's major water catchments. This rivers. To date, no specific climate change response activi- has resulted in less river yield and base flows in rivers that ties have been planned for urban water supply reservoirs or supply the utility which is negatively influencing storage the utility. levels in the main reservoir. Water quality has also been af- fected through rising turbidity in the raw treatment plants resulting in increasing costs for required chemicals during treatment. The low storage volumes have on several occasions re- sulted in the company resorting to water rationing in order to manage the limited supply. This has caused system infra- structure to operate below its designed optimum capacity. Low pressure in the distribution system pipes, for example, increases air intake in the place of water and causes in- creased corrosion and asset depreciation. 60 Annex 3: Searching For Solutions While NWC has yet to adopt a formal plan to begin address- a.3.4 servicio de agua Potable y ing the affects of climate change, the utility is taking mea- alcantarillado (seDaPal): lima, sures to enhance it supply resources and better manage Peru consumer demand including: Utility Name Servicio de Agua Potable y Alcantaril- · Reduction of Non Revenue water (NRW. The utility lado de Lima (SEDAPAL) has taken steps to reduce the NRW from about 49% in Urban region Lima, Perú 2004 to 40% in 2008. · The utility together with Athi Water Services Board is Population served, 8.4 carrying out a comprehensive study for additional wa- million ter resources to meet the increased demand. Total Water supply 232 · NWC is already using some public boreholes (from (ml/day), 2005 the railway company) to increase water supply during Total Water supply 250 drought conditions and together with other stakehold- (ml/day), 2008 ers is working on a more comprehensive program to use private and public wells during drought emergen- % Water resources, SW 80 cies. % Water resources, GW 20 · The utility has partnered with other stakeholders in- Climate threats Decreased surface water quantity cluding the Ministry of Environment, and private com- and quality; Damage to water sup- panies such as UAP Insurance and Kenya Breweries to ply facilities; More concentrated and improve watershed management and source protec- earlier water flows tion. Since 2006, 100,000 seedlings have been planted in the upper catchments to increase forest cover, re- duce source pollution and ultimately increase ground and surface water recharge. SEDAPAL recognizes its vulnerability to climate change and · The utility embarked on an ambitious metering initia- one of its principle concerns is the melting of key glaciers tive in which 220,000 meters were examined and faulty in the Andes. Glacial melt will have significant implications ones replaced. on the utility's ability to use Atlantic/Amazon watershed · The utility started preparing for a rationing program to which provides 98% of the country's water. It has recently ensure that under drought stress every customer gets been reported that the melting of glaciers has already re- at least a minimum amount of water. As a first measure duced the water supply to Peru's coastline by 12 percent the company installed 600 water tanks in underserved which is where 60 percent of the country's population areas to improve the water supply and to avoid that resides. water vendors increase the water costs too much in poor areas. In response to the recognition of these long term risks, · The company and the Athi Water Service Board coop- the utility has begun implementing measures to increase erate with the City Council to make roof catchment the capacity of its reservoirs and water treatment plants, mandatory for all new constructions. in addition to considering desalination as a `highly viable alternative' and optimization of groundwater resources NWC recognizes that the impacts of climate changes will through artificial aquifer recharge. Steps are similarly being be dynamic and that the need for information is central to taken to reduce water losses through network rehabilita- assessing feasible adaptation strategies. However the utility tion, macro and micro metering, and pressure zoning of possesses very little documented information or data on the distribution network. Treated wastewater is now also climate change necessary for formulating appropriate ac- being increasingly used for the watering of parks and city tion plans or making informed decisions. gardens. 61 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities To address demand management, the utility has conducted lion by 2025. Approximately 80 percent of the population consumer awareness campaigns for school and community in Dhaka lives in dense slums with densities of between organizations which have involved presentations and site 500 and 1,500 persons per acre. Experts believe that glacial visits to treatment plants. In an effort to promote the use of and snow melt in the Himalayas, in addition to increasing water saving technologies, SEDAPAL patented the Product rainfall attributable to climate change will lead to more Seal for Water Saving Appliances which supports and certi- frequent and intense flooding across Bangladesh. It is ex- fies products that generate a minimum 30% of savings. pected that such flooding will also affect cities located near the coast and those that are in the delta region, including SEDAPAL recognizes that the utility will not be able to ad- Dhaka. Plans for flood protection are already underway in dress climate change through traditional operations, and greater Dhaka; as result of frequent flooding in the 1980s that solutions must be formulated through strong collabo- the government, has already completed the construction of ration and coordination with the agricultural, mining, hous- embankments, concrete reinforced walls and pumping sta- ing, industry and education sectors. tions in the densest parts of the city. While such technically oriented solutions may alleviate some of the risks posed by climate change, unresolved development problems, such a.3.5 Dhaka water supply & sewerage as the city's growing slum population which has doubled authority (Dwasa): Dhaka, in the last decade, must be taken into consideration [UN bangladesh HABITAT, 2008]. Utility Name Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority (DWASA) a.3.6 rosvoDokanal: russia/ukraine Urban region Dhaka, Bangladesh Utility Name ROSVODOKANAL Population served, 12 million Urban region Moscow, Russia Total Water supply 1,100 Population served, million 5.4 (ml/day), 2005 Total Water supply (ml/day), 2005 NA Total Water supply 1,250 (ml/day), 2008 Total Water supply (ml/day), 2008 NA % Water resources, SW 15 % Water resources, SW 70 % Water resources, GW 85 % Water resources, GW 30 Climate threats Decreased surface water quantity Climate threats None as very severe and quality; Decreased groundwa- ter/aquifer recharge and quantity; Increased urban demand for water; More concentrated and earlier water The ROSVODOKANAL Group is a private water operator in flows; Submersion of water supply facilities; Increased competition for Russia. It has operations in seven territories across the Rus- water resources sian Federation and one territory in the Ukraine. Climate change poses a significant threat in three of eight ter- ritories in which the company is active arising from severe With an urban growth rate of more than 4 percent annually, water shortages. As a result of reoccurring droughts and Dhaka, which already hosts more than 13 million people, overuse of Severski Donets River by upstream communi- is one of the fastest growing metropolitan regions in the ties, the majority of towns in the Lugansk Oblast district world, and is projected to accommodate more than 20 mil- of Ukraine are supplied with water 5­10 hours per day. At 62 Annex 3: Searching For Solutions present the Group is also facing severe problems due to based on 1990­99 hydraulic data. Thus, water from the Luan reduced water levels in rivers, non-revenue water losses River has been introduced to Tianjin through a water diver- up to 50 percent in some of its operators, relatively high sion project which since 1983 has averaged 792 million m3/ per capita water consumption (up to 350 lpcd), and the year. Urban water supply in Tianjin has relied heavily on this comparatively low tariffs throughout Russia and Ukraine. project. The Group has emphasized the need for large scale invest- ments in water supply infrastructure. To deal with this situ- Rural areas and agricultural uses continue to utilize local ation the respective national governments are considering surface water and groundwater. Tianjin has three large public-private partnerships for NRW programs, increased reservoirs and eleven medium sized reservoirs with a total operator efficiency and to establish financial tools to bring storage capacity of 2.66 billion m3. Its current water supply new capital into the sector. capacity is 0.86 billion m3. With water transfers and ground- water, there is less than 3 billion m3 per year to meet the ba- sic needs of the city. Tianjin would benefit from a planned a.3.7 Tianjin water Company: Tianjin, South-North Water Transfer Plan, which is projected to China increase the water supply to 3.74 billion m3 in 2010, and 4.14 billion m3 in 2020. This project is aimed at addressing Utility Name Tianjin Water Company Tianjin's perceived unsustainable use of the Hai River Basin by planners and government authorities [Zhou, 2004]. Urban region Tianjin City and vicinity Population served, million 5.5 The South-North Water Transfer, a concept that has been under consideration since the 1950s but has only recently Total Water supply (ml/day), 2005 1.20 begun to receive full commitment from the government, Total Water supply (ml/day), 2008 1.35 refers to three sets of water diversions (dam projects) from the Yangtze River; the Eastern, Central and Western routes, % Water resources, SW 95% each serving separate areas of China. Tianjin will receive % Water resources, GW 5% water from both the Eastern and Central routes, which will pass under the Yellow River. Driven in part by a perceived Climate threats Sea rise, depletion of surface water need to relieve unsustainable water use in the Hai River basin, especially in Beijing and Tianjin, construction has begun on key components of the Eastern route, and on the A recent study examined climate adaptation potential for source of the Central route (the Danjiangkou Reservoir) to the City of Tianjin [Zhou, 2004]. Currently, Tianjin's key risk in diversify water sources for the utility. Construction of the terms of water supply stems from the demand side, where Eastern and Middle Routes is targeted for completion in urbanization, population growth, agricultural use, and in- 2020 [Nickum, 2006]. dustrial development continue to place much stress on the water resources and utilities in the province. Future climate There is currently low stakeholder awareness and engage- change impacts, including reduced precipitation levels or ment in addressing climate change impacts on the water increasing droughts and flooding, will only add more pres- sector in Tianjin, although public and utility planners are sure to an already stressed system. aware of and have been dealing with extreme hydrologi- cal and climatic variability for some time. These efforts are Tianjin's water supply is dependent on local water resourc- aimed at addressing rapid urbanization and growth in water es, inflow from upstream, and water transferred from the consumption, as well as periodic droughts and floods. Luan River. While the total surface water inflow into Tianjin is 2.61 billion m3 in an average year, in a typical drought Future opportunities for adaptation in Tianjin's water sector year, however, this flow is reduced to only 527 million m3, range from reactive measures such as NRW reduction, to 63 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities proactive measures such as improving water infrastructure, peting priorities for time and resources, the uncertainties upgrading wastewater treatment systems and promoting in climate change projections, and emphasis placed on water conservation programs. National attention and pro- addressing pressing water demand issues from regional active adaptation planning and implementation however, urbanization and water use, where major efforts are being have yet to materialize. This is likely because of other com- placed on the large-scale water transfer/diversion projects. 64 glossary of Terms [Source: Bates et al, 2008, except where noted] or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forces, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land adaptation use. Note that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in Article 1, defines climate Initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natu- change as: "A change of climate which is attributed directly ral and human systems against actual or expected climate or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition change effects. Various types of adaptation exist, e.g. antici- of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural patory and reactive, private and public, and autonomous climate variability observed over comparable time periods". and planned. Examples are raising river or coastal dikes, the The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate substitution of more temperature-shock resistant plants for change attributable to human activities altering the atmo- sensitive ones, etc. spheric composition, and climate variability attributable to natural causes. adaptive Capacity Climate Projection The whole of capabilities, resources and institutions of a country or region to implement effective adaptation mea- A projection of the response of the climate system to emis- sures. sions or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiactive forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate models. Climate projections are Climate distinguished from climate predictions in order to empha- size that climate projections depend upon the emission/ Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average concentration/radioactive forcing scenario used, which are weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description based on assumptions concerning, for example, future so- in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities cioeconomic and technological developments that may or over a period of time ranging from months to thousands may not be realized and are therefore subject to substantial or millions of years. The classical period for averaging these uncertainty. variables is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization. The relevant quantities are most often sur- face variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind. Climate system Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description of the climate system. The climate system is the highly complex system consist- ing of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydro- sphere, the cryosphere, the land surface and the biosphere, Climate Change and the interactions between them. The climate system evolves in time under the influence of its own internal Climate change refers to a change in the state of the cli- dynamics and because of external forces such as volcanic mate that can be identified (e.g. by using statistical tests) by eruptions, solar variabilities and anthropogenic forces such changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, as the changing composition of the atmosphere and land- and that persists for an extended period, typically decades use change. 65 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities Climate variability flexibility Climate variability refers to variabilities in the mean state The flexibility of a system refers to its ability to adapt to a and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the oc- wide range of operating conditions through relatively mod- currence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all spatial and est and inexpensive levels of redesign, refitting or reopera- temporal scales beyond that of individual weather events. tion [Hashimoto, T. et al., 1982a]. Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variabilities in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external vari- greenhouse effect ability). Greenhouse gases effectively absorb thermal infrared ra- diation emitted by the Earth's surface by the atmosphere exposure itself due to the same gases, and by clouds. Atmospheric radiation is emitted on all sides, including downward to In the context of this report, exposure refers to Bank proj- the Earth's surface. Thus, greenhouse gases trap heat with- ects and/or regional investments being subjected to nega- in the surface troposphere system. This is called the green- tive changes in annual runoff (from present day values) in house effect. Thermal infrared radiation in the troposphere the year 2030 or 2050. The Climate Change Exposure Index is strongly coupled to the temperature of the atmosphere was defined, as follows, for all projects except flood control at the altitude at which it is emitted. In the troposphere, projects: the temperature generally decreases with height. Effec- tively, infrared radiation emitted to space originates from an altitude with a temperature of, on average, ­19°C, in Exposure Index Description balance with the net incoming solar radiation, whereas Water systems (non- the Earth's surface is kept at a much higher temperature flood control) of, on average, +14°C. An increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases leads to an increased infrared opacity Low % reduction in annual runoff.... Less than 5% of the atmosphere, and therefore to an effective radiation into space from a higher altitude at a lower temperature. Medium % reduction in annual runoff.... Between 5 and 15% This causes a radiative forcing that leads to an enhance- ment of the greenhouse effect, the so-called "enhanced High % reduction in annual runoff.... greenhouse effect". More than 15% Flood control system Low % reduction in annual runoff.... greenhouse gas (ghg) More than 15% Greenhouse gases are those gaseous constituents of the Middle % reduction in annual runoff.... atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb Between 5 and 15% and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spec- High % reduction in annual runoff.... trum of thermal infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's Less than 5% surface, the atmosphere itself, and by clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ozone (O3) are the primary greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmo- sphere. Moreover, there are a number of entirely human- made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as the 66 Glossary of terms halocarbons and other chlorine and bromine containing ple, future socioeconomic and technological developments substances, dealt with under the Montreal Protocol. Beside that may or may not be realized, and are therefore subject CO2, N2O and CH4, the Kyoto Protocol deals with the green- to substantial uncertainty. house gases sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). reliability (Climate Change) impacts Reliability is defined as the likelihood that services are deliv- ered (no failure) within a given period, expressed as a prob- The effects of climate change on natural and human sys- ability. High probabilities indicate high reliability [Hashi- tems. Depending on the consideration of adaptation, one moto, T. et al., 1982b]. can distinguish between potential impacts and residual impacts: resilience Potential impacts: all impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without considering adap- A. The ability of a social or ecological system to absorb tation. disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organization, and Residual impacts: the impacts of climate change that would the capacity to adapt to stress and change. occur after adaptation. B. Resiliency is the speed at which the system recovers from a failure, on average. Shorter recovery periods indicate mitigation higher resiliency [Hashimoto, T. et al., 1982b]. Technological change and substitution that reduce re- source inputs and emissions per unit of output. Although risk several social, economic and technological policies would produce an emission reduction, with respect to climate The potential for realization of unwanted, adverse conse- change, mitigation means implementing policies to reduce quences; usually based on the expected result of the condi- greenhouse gas emissions and enhance sinks. tional probability of the occurrence of the event multiplied by the consequence of the event, given that it has occurred. What makes a situation risky rather than uncertain is the no-regrets Policy availability of objective estimates of the probability distribu- tion [USACE, 1992]. A policy that would generate net social and/or economic benefits irrespective of whether or not anthropogenic cli- mate change occurs. scenario A plausible and often simplified description of how the Projection future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and A potential future evolution of a quantity or set of quanti- key relationships. Scenarios may be derived from projec- ties, often computed with the aid of a model. Projections tions, but are often based on additional information from are distinguished from predictions in order to emphasize other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative that projections involve assumptions concerning, for exam- storyline. 67 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges & Opportunities sensitivity united nations framework Convention on Climate Change (unfCCC) Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or climate The Convention was adopted on 9 May 1992 in New York change. The effect may be direct (e.g. a change in crop yield and signed at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro by in response to a change in the mean, range, or variability more than 150 countries and the European Community. Its of temperature) or indirect (e.g. damages caused by an in- ultimate objective is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas crease in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would rise). prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system". It contains commitments for all Parties. Under the Convention, Parties included in Annex I (all uncertainty OECD member countries in the year 1990 and countries with economies in transition) aim to return greenhouse gas A. An expression of the degree to which a value (e.g. the emissions not controlled by the Montreal Protocol to 1990 future state of the climate system) is unknown. Un- levels by the year 2000. The Convention entered in force in certainty can result from lack of information or from March 1994. disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from quantifiable errors in the data to ambiguously defined concepts vulnerability or terminology, or uncertain projections of human be- havior. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by A. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is sus- quantitative measures, for example, a range of values ceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects calculated by various models, or by qualitative state- of climate change, including climate variability and ments, for example, reflecting the judgment of a team extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, of experts. magnitude, and rate of climate change and variability B. Uncertain situations are those in which the probability to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its of potential outcomes and their results cannot be de- adaptive capacity. scribed by objectively known probability distributions, B. 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