For Official Use Only CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group 67758 1. CPS Data Country: Mozambique CPS Year: FY07 CPS Period: FY08 – FY11 CPSCR Review Period: FY08 – FY11 Date of this review: March 27, 2012 2. Executive Summary i. This review examines implementation of the FY08-11 Mozambique Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), and evaluates the CPS Completion Report (CPSCR). The strategy was implemented by IDA, IFC and MIGA, and this review covers their joint program. The review complements the Country Program Evaluation (CPE) on Mozambique discussed by CODE in May 2010. The two reviews, however, cover different periods (2008-11 in the CPSCR Review vs. 2001-08 in the CPE) as well as a somewhat different set of objectives. These two aspects explain the differences in the evaluations, including ratings. ii. The WBG strategy was organized around three pillars: (i) increasing accountability and public voice; (ii) ensuring equitable access to key services; and (iii) promoting equitable and broad-based growth. Pillar 1, on accountability and public voice, focused on economic governance and providing stronger citizens’ oversight mechanisms. Pillar 2, on access to services, aimed at improving government effectiveness in the provision of services, particularly health, education, water and electricity. Pillar 3 sought to enable international and local investments, and strengthen economic growth potential. iii. IEG rates the overall outcome of the WBG strategy in Mozambique as moderately unsatisfactory. With support from several external development partners, including IDA, Mozambique has made progress in improving budget planning at the central and district levels, in establishing information technology systems that bolster the government’s fiduciary systems, and started to give communities a say in the budget process. These improvements, however, have yet to translate into better governance indicators. Also with support from several external development partners, including IDA, Mozambique made progress in preventing and treating HIV/AIDS, improving access to primary and secondary education and increasing access to potable water. Mozambique has had mixed success in boosting investment beyond the mega-projects, and in diversifying its economy in order to strengthen its growth potential and expand employment opportunities. With WBG support, Mozambique made some progress in enabling international and domestic investments, particularly in the telecommunications and tourism sectors. Results fell short in general health service delivery, improving the quality of technical and vocational education, and increasing access to electricity services. Results were also weak in several aspects of the real economy, including developing a sustainable road network, increasing freight traffic, bettering water management, and improving agricultural capacity and productivity through extension services, The CPSCR provides little information on many aspects, particularly on district budgeting and municipal budgeting, and none on the development of legal and judicial services. Other external development partners played key roles in helping Mozambique achieve many of the outcomes. iv. The main lesson stemming from this review is that the WBG’s development effectiveness rests on active and effective management of the country strategy and operations, and not only on a dedicated and strong country staff. Efficient monitoring and evaluation of the strategy and taking the opportunity of a CPSPR to update the objectives and interventions to changing circumstances and CPSCR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CPSCR Review Coordinator Juan Jose Fernandez-Ansola Jorge Garcia-Garcia Consultant, IEGCC Consultant, IEGCC Jaime Jaramillo-Vallejo Nestor Ntungwanayo Stephen F. Pirozzi Lead Economist, IEGCC Consultant, IEGCC Senior Evaluator, CEXEG For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group exogenous developments are crucial components to enhance the development effectiveness of the WBG and of its staff. These functions, however, are the purview of senior management. 3. CPS Summary Overview of CPS Relevance: Country Context 1. Mozambique has a GNI-PPP per head of about US$930, with three quarters of its population living on an income of less than US$2 a day. Until the surge of mega-projects in coal, gas, hydropower, aluminum and heavy sands, Mozambique’s economy used to be relatively diversified, with agriculture, transport, manufacturing, energy, fisheries, and tourism contributing to GDP and providing almost all employment—80 percent of the population works in agriculture and fisheries, with a majority in the family farm sector. Relative political stability and investments in the mega-projects helped Mozambique’s economy grow by 6-8 percent a year over the past five years, still recovering from the devastation caused by the 15-year civil war that ended in 1992. Poverty, however, has stagnated at 55 percent since 2003. Moreover, the mega-projects import most of the labor they use. The country was affected only marginally by the global financial crisis. Nevertheless, in September 2010 the country went through political upheaval that resulted in street riots in urban areas triggered by rising food and energy prices. Mozambique is an IDA-only borrower, and receives WBG financing in the form of loans rather than grants, reflecting a positive debt sustainability assessment prepared jointly by the IMF and the WB. 2. The government’s five year plan for the period 2005-09 set six main objectives for the Mozambique. First, reducing absolute poverty through rapid, sustainable and global economic growth, by creating a good business environment that fosters a national business community, and by improving education, health and rural development. Second, promoting the country’s economic and social development, focusing primarily on rural areas in order to reduce inequalities among regions. Third, consolidating national unity, peace, justice and democracy, as well as fostering the citizenship’s self esteem, a condition deemed indispensable for a harmonious development of the country. Fourth, valuing and promoting the culture of work, zeal, honesty and accountability. Fifth, to fight corruption, bureaucracy and crime. And sixth, to strengthen Mozambique’s sovereignty as well as international cooperation. Objectives of WBG Strategy 3. The WBG strategy was organized around three pillars: (i) increasing accountability and public voice; (ii) ensuring equitable access to key services; and (iii) promoting equitable and broad-based growth. Pillar 1, on accountability and public voice, focused on economic governance and providing stronger citizens’ oversight mechanisms. Pillar 2, on access to services, aimed at improving government effectiveness in the provision of services, particularly health, education, water and electricity. Pillar 3 sought to enable international and local investments, and strengthen economic growth potential. Relevance of the WBG Strategy 4. The WBG strategy addressed key challenges facing Mozambique, particularly on growth, social services, and economic governance, and was broadly aligned with Mozambique’s government plan. The strategy, however, included weak interventions in areas that present a significant challenge for Mozambique. In particular, IDA’s interventions in agriculture were very limited, even thou gh it was the lead external partner in the sector, rural poverty is high, and agriculture accounts for 80 percent of the employment. Similarly, an effort by IFC through advisory work to link its aluminum investment to local SMEs that generate employment was constrained by weak local capacity. This effort was not For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group scaled up to the other mega-projects, which are generating almost nil local employment. The lack of a Country Partnership Strategy Progress Report (CPSPR) was a significant hindrance to the strategy’s implementation. The WBG missed the opportunity of a CPSPR to adjust the program to development as important as the riots and the subsequent adjustment of the government’s program, and to drop objectives, such as judicial reform, where the WBG did not intervene Moreover a poorly designed results framework made monitoring difficult inter alia because of the lack of benchmarks, and several outcomes were not backed up by adequate WBG interventions. 5. Consistent with the overall WBG strategy and congruent with market demand, both IFC and MIGA targeted private sector growth. 6. Cooperation with other donors was good as demonstrated by the High-Level Conference on Medium-Term Economic Policy Priorities hosted by the Mozambique Government and undertaken jointly by IDA and the IMF. It was also co-sponsored by the UK Department for International Development and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation. Risk Identification and Mitigation 7. The CPS indicated that the main risk to the program was the spread of HIV/AIDS which would affect the social fabric, civil service capacity, and labor productivity. Moreover, governance problems could affect the nascent democracy, limit public accountability, and undercut citizen participation. Inadequate fiduciary controls and a failure to strengthen public financial accountability mechanisms could result in increased corruption, undermine government credibility and private sector confidence, and possibly prompt development partners to withhold support. Mozambique’s vulnerability to exogenous shocks, such as natural disasters or terms of trade shocks, was also noted. The WBG was working with the Global facility for Disaster Reduction & Recovery Multi-Donor Trust Fund to put emergency systems in place. However, the other risks (HIV/AIDS, governance, and fiduciary controls) were no specifically mitigated under the CPS. Overview of CPS Implementation: Lending and Investments 8. In all, IDA approved 20 projects during the CPS period, amounting to over US$1 billion. There were some delays compared to program in sectors such as water resources and agriculture. About US$270 million corresponded to non-programmed projects in education, water, energy, and health. 9. IFC’s portfolio included nine pre-existing investments totaling $143 million in agri-business, mining and metals, and financial market development. Of these, two stand out in size: a $121 million stake in an aluminum smelter plant, and an $18 million equity investment in a gas field development. As regards the new commitments under the FY08-11 CPS, $70 million in seven smaller projects aimed at strengthening the lending capacity of financial institutions, supporting food processing, and expanding mining exploration. During the CPS period, MIGA issued two guarantees to financial and manufacturing operations for a total volume of $13.6 million, equivalent to less than 5 percent of its guarantee exposure in Mozambique ($266 million). 10. The proportion of IDA commitments at risk represented about 26 percent of the portfolio in FY11, a higher share than the average for the African Region (26 percent), and up from 7 percent in 2008. Of the nineteen projects, 21 percent are considered to be at risk. IEG ratings of projects exiting during the CPS period rated 95.3 percent as moderately satisfactory or better, a proportion significantly higher than for AFR and the World Bank as a whole. Only one project was rated unsatisfactory, the Public Sector Reform project closed in FY10, with IEG noting a poor monitoring and evaluation For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group framework, and inadequate supervision. 11. IEG rated IFC investment outcomes of the aluminum/gas field projects as satisfactory. There are two IEG evaluations of MIGA guarantees, for an aluminum smelter and a hotel in 2005: the development outcome was rated satisfactory for the aluminum project and partially unsatisfactory for the hotel. Advisory and Analytical Activities and Services 12. IDA delivered 35 analytical and advisory activities (AAA), of which only 3 were planned. The areas covered by AAA included a Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), technical assistance on procurement reforms, and many ―how-to‖ guidance documents on health, fiscal issues, optimizing the fiscal and clean-environment impact of mega-projects, and approaches to poverty reduction. The number of unplanned AAA deliveries reflects again the absence of a mid-term CPSPR. It also reflects a demand-driven program However, the AAA program would have benefitted from better strategic programming to influence policies during the CPS period. For example, the WBG’s voice was not helped by the delay of the publication of the Country Economic Memorandum from FY09, when it was prepared and an initial draft was shared with the government, to FY12. 13. During the CPS period IFC continued to implement nine advisory services projects totaling $6.6 million approved prior to FY08-11. These projects aimed to develop SME linkages and capacity in the paper, oil and gas, food and beverages, manufacturing, and tourism sectors. Nine new advisory services approved during FY08-11 for $6.2 million aimed at helping SMEs access financing, and facilitating public/private partnerships in the water sector. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 14. There were no significant safeguards issues or fiduciary complaints that IEG is aware of in the WBG portfolio. Overview of Achievement by Objective: Pillar 1: Increasing Accountability and Public Voice 15. Under this pillar the WBG’s support was to focus on (i) improving economic governance, and (ii) providing stronger mechanisms of citizens’ oversight. 16. Improving economic governance. The WBG strategy aimed at improving budget planning at the central, district and municipality levels, and bettering government fiduciary systems. The 2011 PEFA, covering 2006-09, reports improvements in eight of twenty eight indicators, mostly on total expenditure and revenues compared to budget, information and transparency of the budget, including legislative scrutiny of the annual budget law, and efficiency of taxpayer registration and assessment. Under the leadership of the IMF and with support from the African Development Bank (AfDB), NORAD and IDA, Mozambique received technical assistance on public financial management, for the implementation of an information technology system (SISTAFE), and an electronic single Treasury account (e-CUT). With IDA support, Mozambique introduced district consultative groups for participatory planning, and developed a system of citizen scorecards for the Maputo municipality. While the former are just making inroads, the latter is working. At the level of broad governance indicators, however, Mozambique had mixed progress in economic governance. The move of the Government Effectiveness Index of the World Bank Institute (WBI), which ranges from, from -0.49 in 2007 to -0.47 in 2010 (range between -2.5 to 2.5) falls within the confidence intervals, suggesting no change. Also from WBI, the indicator for Control of Corruption improved from -0.59 to -0.40. On a different set of For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group indicators, the sub-index of the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) of the World Economic Forum (WEF) on Wastefulness of Government Spending deteriorated from 3.3 over 7.0 in 2008-09 to 3.0 in 2011-12, while the sub-index on Transparency of Government Policymaking increased from 3.8 to 4.2. The CPSCR gives no information on progress in budget planning at the municipal level, or on district budget planning beyond the consultative groups mentioned here. 17. IDA assistance consisted of both lending and AAA. The lending portfolio consisted of a PRSC series (FY07, FY08, FY09), and the Public Sector Reform Project (FY03). Through its PRSC series, IDA contributed to the creation of the Central Revenue Authority and an increase in internal audits and controls. There were two AAAs delivered: Country Procurement Reforms Follow-up and Accounting and Auditing ROSC. 18. Providing stronger mechanisms of citizens’ oversight. The WBG strategy aimed at improving government information and communications systems, and increasing the efficiency in legal and judicial services in selected provinces. The CPSCR acknowledges that outcomes in the area of citizen oversight and improvement of legal and judicial services were not monitored properly. Under the technical assistance provided by the IMF, the country is moving on e-government. As mentioned above participatory budget planning gave some local communities a better understanding of the district budget process and Maputo’s citizen scorecard provides their feedback. At the indicators level, the WBI’s index for Voice and Accountability, moved slightly from -0.09 to -0.12, falling within the confidence intervals and suggesting no change. The move, however, continued the sliding trend of the past seven years. Broad indicators of the justice system followed by the WEF show a mixed picture: while the efficiency of the legal framework appears to have improved during the CPS period (from 2.8 over 7.0 in 2007 to 3.3 in 2010), judicial independence seems to have deteriorated slightly (from 2.8 in 2007 to 2.7 in 2010). IEG’s 2010 CPE notes that the Bank entered unprepared for its assistance on judicial reform, and subsequently did poor monitoring of progress in this area, which appears to be negligible. Citizen scorecards that are having an impact on Maputo’s budget allocation. 19. IDA’s assistance was provided through the Public Sector Reform Project (FY03), and two National Decentralized Planning and Finance Projects (FY04 and FY10). 20. IEG rates the outcome of the WBG strategy in Pillar 1 as moderately satisfactory. With support from several external development partners, including IDA, Mozambique has made progress in improving budget planning at the central and district levels, in establishing information technology systems that bolster the government’s fiduciary systems, and started to give communities a say in the budget process. These improvements, however, have yet to translate into better governance indicators. The CPSCR provides little information on many aspects of district budgeting and municipal budgeting, and none on the development of legal and judicial services. While IDA was present in the assistance provided to Mozambique on public financial management, the weak performance of the Public Sector Reform Project suggests that IDA’s contribution through this intervention was limited. Pillar 2: Ensuring Equitable Access to Key Services 21. Under this pillar the WBG’s support was to focus on helping Mozambique improve government effectiveness in the provision of services, particularly in health, education, water, and electricity sectors. 22. Health. Mozambique had mixed progress on health. Over the CPS period and with support from a number of development partners, including IDA, the country increased the number of people receiving anti-retroviral treatment from 34 thousand in 2006 to more than 234, thousand in 2010. In addition, HIV prevalence as a percentage of adults aged 15 –49 years decreased from 12.5 in 2007 to 11.5 in 2009. Meanwhile, the country’s equity in health appears to have deteriorated, judging by the deterioration in several health indicators. As reported by the WDI, DPT and measles immunization as a For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group percent of children ages 12-23 months decreased respectively from 79 and 74 in 2007 to 74 and 70 in 2011. However, as reported by the World Economic Forum, the incidence of tuberculosis declined from 443.0 per 100,000 in 2006 to 409.0 in 2009. Infant mortality of children up to one year declined slightly from 100 per thousand births in 2005 to 95.9 percent in 2009. 23. IDA’s intervention in the health sector consisted of three investment projects: HIV/AIDS Response project (FY03), Health Service Delivery Project (FY09), and Health Commodity Security Project (FY11). 24. Education. Mozambique increased education at all levels reducing the illiteracy rate by 9 percentage points during the CPS period, but made no progress in improving vocational training to better match the labor market needs, particularly of the mega-projects. According to the World Economic Forum, the net primary education enrollment rate increased from 76.0 in 2006 to 92.3 percent in 2008, and the primary completion rate increased from 38 percent in 2007 to 48 percent in 2009. Also, the gross secondary education enrollment rate improved from 15.5 percent in 2006 to 25.5 percent in 2009. On a different front, Mozambique started the transition of its Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) system towards a demand-led system. The CPSCR provides no evidence of progress in this front, and the employment and unemployment rates have remained without major changes. 25. IDA’s intervention included the Technical and Vocational Education and Training Project (FY06). In addition, there was trust fund project stemming from the fast track initiative, the Mozambique Education Sector Support Program Fast Track Initiative Catalytic Fund. 26. Water and Electricity. Mozambique is making progress in providing potable water to its people. With IDA support, 36.3 thousand households gained access to water in 13 targeted urban areas. With support from AfDB, access to clean water in rural areas has been growing at around 200 to 250 thousand people per year in four targeted provinces. Mozambique’s progress in providing electricity services has not been as successful as expected. With IDA support, 236 clinics and schools gained off-grid access to electricity, below CPS expectations. With IDA support, 28 thousand new household connections were completed. 27. IDA’s assistance consisted of Energy Reform and Access (FY04), Water Services and Institutional Support (FY08), Energy Development and Access (FY10), and AF to Water Services and Institutional Support (FY11). 28. IEG rates the outcome of the WBG strategy in Pillar 2 as moderately unsatisfactory. Mozambique, with WBG assistance, made progress in preventing and treating HIV/AIDS, improving access to primary and secondary education and increasing access to potable water. At the same time, results fell short in general health service delivery, improving the quality of technical and vocational education, and increasing access to electricity services. Other development partners played a significant role supporting Mozambique in combating HIV/AIDS and increasing access to potable water. Pillar 3: Promoting Equitable and Broad-Based Growth 29. Under this pillar the WBG’s support was to help Mozambique on enabling international and local investments, and on strengthening its economic growth potential. 30. Enabling international and local investments. Progress in this area is mixed. Gross domestic investments as a percent of GDP increased from 17.9 in 2007 to 20.6 in 2010, with government investments accounting for a third of the increase (11.7 to 12.6 percent). At the same time, net FDIs as a percent of GDP grew from 5.3 in 2007 to 8.1 in 2010, directed mostly toward the mega- For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group projects. While domestic private investment increased, it did so by less than expected. According to some sources, local investors continue to face limited access to finance and power supply, as well as poor governance issues. Nevertheless, between 2008-09 and 2011-12, the World Economic Forum’s indices on institutions and infrastructure improved from 3.2 to 3.4 over 7.0 and 2.2 to 2.6, respectively. In addition, the International Property Right Index improved from 4.2 over 10 in 2007 to 4.7 in 2010. On a different front, with IDA’s support, Mozambique improved the accounting standards applicable to its financial institutions. 31. The WBG provided support through the PRSC series (FY03, FY07, FY08, and FY09), the Competitiveness and Private Sector Development Project (FY09), the Financial Sector Technical Assistance Project (FY06), the Market Led Smallholder Development in Zambezi Valley (FY06), and the Communication Sector Reform Project (FY02, FY09). This lending portfolio was complemented by AAAs in the form of two FSAP follow-ups (FY09), Investment Climate Assessments (FY09), Growth Poles & Economic Zones analysis (FY10), Regional Investment Climate Assessment (FY12), and Regional Trade (FY12). 32. Strengthening economic growth potential. As reported by the IMF, Mozambique’s growth has not been accompanied by economic diversification or by commensurate employment creation, in contrast with peer countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. It’s productive and export base has become increasingly concentrated—a reflection of the mega-projects in natural resource sector, coupled with a still weak business environment. The ratio of employment to population above 15 stagnated at 78 over the period of 2005-2009; at the time the mega-projects were bringing in foreign labor to cover even basic jobs. The government, which had adopted as one of its objectives developing rural areas in order to reduce inequalities among regions, faced street riots in urban areas in September 2010, as urban poor reacted to rising food prices in the absence of social safety nets. The weak overall outcome happened despite growth in sectors like communications and tourism, but reflecting to some extent the slow progress in developing a sustainable road network to commercialize agricultural products, as well as the frailty of water resource management. 33. IDA’s lending assistance came through National Water Development (FY99), Railway & Ports Restructuring (FY00), Beira Railway Project (FY05), Communication Sector Reform (FY02, FY09), Market-led Smallholder Development in the Zambezi Valley (FY06), Trans-frontier Conservation Areas and Tourism Development (FY06), Roads and Bridges Management and Maintenance Program II (FY07, FY11), PRSC series (FY07, FY08, FY09, FY10, and FY11), Mozambique Transmission Interconnection (FY08), Competitiveness and Private Sector Development (FY09), PROIRRI Sustainable Irrigation Development Project (FY09), and Energy Reform and Access Project (FY04, FY09). Also, there was Programmatic Support to Disaster Risk Management I Project by Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. This was complemented by AAAs in the form of an Advice on Optimizing the Domestic Impact of Mega-projects (FY08, a letter offering services mostly on fiscal and environmental aspects), Zambezi Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis (FY08), and Public Expenditure Review (FY10). 34. Major IFC interventions were launched before FY08-11, but their implementation continued during the CPS period, with the main projects being projects in aluminum and gas production. The aluminum project tripled the country’s exports of aluminum, and the gas project developed a domestic gas market and supported financially a social development fund. Two thirds of the new resources channeled by IFC were devoted to strengthen access to finance for SMEs, support SMEs in agribusiness, and acquire equity in a gas company. Outcomes achieved in the new ventures are not known yet. IFC also provided advisory services to SMEs, and to the government on business regulation and on regulatory reform of the tourism sector. 35. IEG rates the outcome of the WBG strategy in Pillar 3 as moderately unsatisfactory. Mozambique has had mixed success in boosting investment beyond the mega-projects in natural For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group resources, and in diversifying its economy in order to strengthen its growth potential and expand employment opportunities. With WBG support, Mozambique made some progress in enabling international and domestic investments, particularly in the telecommunications and tourism sectors. On the rest, including developing a sustainable road network, increasing freight traffic, bettering water management, and improving agricultural capacity and productivity through extension services, results were generally weak. Achievement of CPS Objectives Objectives IEG Rating Pillar I: Increasing Accountability and Public Voice Moderately Satisfactory Pillar II: Ensuring Equitable Access to Key Services Moderately Unsatisfactory Pillar III: Promoting Equitable and Broad-Based growth Moderately Unsatisfactory 4. Overall IEG Assessment Outcome: Moderately Unsatisfactory IDA Performance: Moderately Unsatisfactory IFC’s Performance: Moderately Satisfactory MIGA Performance Moderately Satisfactory Overall Outcome 36. IEG rates the overall outcome of the WBG strategy in Mozambique as moderately unsatisfactory. With support from several external development partners, including IDA, Mozambique has made progress in improving budget planning at the central and district levels, in establishing information technology systems that bolster the government’s fiduciary systems, and started to give communities a say in the budget process. These improvements, however, have yet to translate into better governance indicators. Also with support from several external development partners, including IDA, Mozambique made progress in preventing and treating HIV/AIDS, improving access to primary and secondary education and increasing access to potable water. Mozambique has had mixed success in boosting investment beyond the mega-projects, and in diversifying its economy in order to strengthen its growth potential and expand employment opportunities. With WBG support, Mozambique made some progress in enabling international and domestic investments, particularly in the telecommunications and tourism sectors. Results fell short in general health service delivery, improving the quality of technical and vocational education, and increasing access to electricity services. Results were also weak in several aspects of the real economy, including developing a sustainable road network, increasing freight traffic, bettering water management, and improving agricultural capacity and productivity through extension services, The CPSCR provides little information on many aspects, particularly on district budgeting and municipal budgeting, and none on the development of legal and judicial services. Other external development partners played key roles in helping Mozambique achieve many of the outcomes. For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group IDA Performance 37. IDA performance is rated moderately unsatisfactory. The share of IDA projects exiting during the CPS period and evaluated by IEG receiving moderately satisfactory or better ratings was higher than that for AFR and the World Bank as a whole. In addition, the fact that many of the main outcomes of the strategy were jointly supported with other development partners points at an effective level of cooperation with them on the ground. However, the relevance of IDA’s strategy was moderate in that it failed to take a more active stance in the agricultural sector, where most of the poor are employed, as well as in promoting local employment generation by the mega-projects. In addition, the results framework of the strategy and its use as the M&E framework guiding IDA’s activity was weak. These two issues could have been dealt with midway through a CPSPR, which would also have allowed IDA to adapt its strategy to the changes in the political economy brought about by the street riots and rising food prices. A further weakness was portfolio management, where all the indicators worsened steadily during the CPS period. These shortcomings contrast with what seems to have been a strong performance on the ground, and point at the need for more senior management involvement in the country, as suggested in the CPSCR. IFC Performance 38. IEG rates IFC performance as moderately satisfactory. IFC new investment activity slowed significantly compared to the previous CPS. While IFC reached out to SMEs and agribusiness, its efforts to invest in employment-generating projects and economic diversification fell short. MIGA Performance 39. MIGA performance is rated moderately satisfactory. Of two guarantees evaluated by IEG, the development outcome was rated satisfactory for one and partially unsatisfactory for the other one. MIGA was not proactive in Mozambique, with the volume of its new operations being equivalent to less than 5 percent of its guarantee exposure. 5. Assessment of CPS Completion Report 40. This is a well-written and candid CPSCR. The evaluation is detailed and comprehensive for the most part, although it could have dealt more in-depth with areas of the program where things did not go well, to find out the reasons and draw lessons. There are several areas of the program for which the CPSCR does not provide enough information. 6. Findings and Lessons 41. The main lesson stemming from this review is that the WBG’s development effectiveness rests on active and effective management of the country strategy and operations, and not only on a dedicated and strong country staff. Efficient monitoring and evaluation of the strategy and taking the opportunity of a CPSPR to update the objectives and interventions to changing circumstances and exogenous developments are crucial components to enhance the development effectiveness of the WBG and of its staff. These functions, however, are the purview of senior management. Annexes CPSCR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1a: Planned and Actual Lending, FY08-11 Annex Table 1b: Trust Funds, FY08-11 Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Analytical and Advisory Work, FY08-11 Annex Table 3a: IEG Project Ratings for Country, FY08-11 Annex Table 3b: IEG Project Ratings for Mozambique and Comparators, FY08-11 Annex Table 4: Portfolio Status for Mozambique and Comparators, FY08-11 Annex Table 5: IDA Net Disbursements and Charges Summary Report for Mozambique, FY08-11(in US$ million) Annex Table 6: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid, 2005- 2010(in US$ million) Annex Table 7: Economic and Social Indicators for Mozambique and Comparators, 2007- 2010 Annex Table 8: Country - Millennium Development Goals Annex Table 9: List of IFC’s Investments in Mozambique that were active during FY08-11 (US$’000) Annex Table 10: List of IFC’s Advisory Services in Mozambique, FY08-11 Annex Table 11: Mozambique: MIGA guarantees during FY08-11 Annex Table 12: Summary of Achievements of the CPS Objectives Annexes CPSCR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1a: Planned and Actual Lending, FY08-11 Proposed Approval Proposed Approved Project ID Project FY FY Amount Amount P103277 Fourth Poverty Reduction Support Credit 2008 2008 70 60 P107311 National Decentralized Planning and Finance Program 2008 2010 15 30.4 P099930 Health Service Delivery 2008 2009 30 44.6 P107313 Fifth Poverty Reduction Support Credit (PRSC5) 2009 2009 70 90 P107598 MZ PROIRRI Sustainable Irrigation Development 2009 2011 20 70 P108444 MZ-Energy Development and Access Project (APL-2) 2009 2010 30 80 P107426 MZ-HIV/AIDS Response II SIL 2009 Dropped 20 P107133 Mozambique - Communications II Project 2009 Dropped 15 Forwarded Water Resources Management 2009 to 2012 20 P115217 Maputo Municipal Development Program II (MMDP II) 2010 2011 30 50 P111592 Higher Education Science and Technology 2010 2010 20 40 P117234 Sixth Poverty Reduction Support Credit (PRSC6) 2010 2010 70 110 P122470 Seventh Poverty Reduction Support Credit (PRSC7) 2011 2011 70 85 Roads and Bridges Management and Maintenance Program - P114880 Phase II Additional Financing 2011 2011 60 41 P121398 MZ - Spatial Development Planning Technical Assistance Project 2011 2011 20 20 Advisory and Capacity Support for Infrastructure Ministries Dropped 10 P106355 Competitiveness and Private Sector 2009 20 25 The e-Government and Communications Infrastructure Project P111432 (included in the Regional Communications Infrastructure Project) 2009 2009 5 20.9 Total Programmed projects CPS FY08-11 595.0 766.9 Non-programmed projects P105205 MZ Higher Education Project (Supplemental) 2008 15 P104566 Water Services and Institutional Support Project 2008 15 Southern African Power Market Program: Mozambique P084404 Transmission Interconnection Project 2008 93 P125127 MZ-Education Sector Support Program 2011 71 P121060 Health Commodity Security Project 2011 39 Additional Financing - Water Services and Institutional Support P120546 (WASIS) Project 2011 37 Total non programmed projects CPS FY08-11 270.00 Total projects CPS FY08-12 1,036.9 Ongoing projects Approval Approved Project ID Project Closed FY FY Amount P083459 Third Poverty Reduction Support Credit 2007 2008 70 P083263 Second National Water Development Project - Supplemental Credit 2004 na 15 P052240 National Water Development Project (02) 1999 2009 75 P093165 Market led Smallholder Development in the Zambezi Valley 2006 Active 20 P096332 Pro Maputo, Maputo Municipal Development Program 2007 2012 30 P073479 Mozambique: Communication Sector Reform Project 2002 2009 14.9 P078053 HIV/AIDS Response Project 2003 2011 55 MZ-Financial Sector TA Project Financial Sector Technical P086169 Assistance 2006 Active 10.5 P001807 Decentralized Planning and Financing Project 2004 2009 42 P069183 Energy Reform and Access Project 2004 2011 40.26 Roads and Bridges Management and Maintenance Program - P083325 Phase II 2007 Active 100 P087347 Technical and Vocational Education and Training 2006 Active 30 P082618 Beira Railway Project 2005 2012 110 P072080 Public Sector Reform 2003 2010 25.6 Trans frontier Conservation Areas and Tourism Development P071465 Project 2006 Active 20 P042039 Railways & Ports Restructuring Project 2000 2009 100 P069824 Higher Education Project 2002 2010 60 Source: Mozambique FY08-11 CPS and WB Business Warehouse Table 2a.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 02/06/2012. Annexes CPSCR Review 14 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1b: Trust Funds, FY08-11 Approved Project ID Project TF ID Approval Closing Amount P107350 Water Resources Development TF 92821 750,000.00 2009 2011 Mozambique-Programmatic Support to Disaster P124755 Risk Management Phase I TF 99391 1,398,000.00 2011 Active P125225 Mozambique PPCR - Phase 1 TF 98872 1,500,000.00 2011 Active Capacity building of the Mozambique Supreme P116717 Audit Institution TF 97535 446,250.00 2011 Active Mozambique: Extractive Industries Transparency P108855 Initiative Implementation TF 96920 375,000.00 2011 Active TF 96505 16,267,749.18 2010 Active TF 96399 3,288,847.00 2010 Active P099930 Health Service Delivery TF 96375 7,862,000.00 2011 Active TF 58155 1,149,783.00 2008 2010 P116352 Strengthening M&E for PARPA III TF 96135 499,805.00 2010 Active P114633 Power Development Capacity Building for EDM TF 93176 72,000.00 2009 2011 Mozambique: Legal and Financial Advisory P114318 Services for Power Transmission System (EDM) TF 92988 692,000.00 2009 Active P107313 Fifth Poverty Reduction Support Credit (PRSC5) TF 93203 10,000,000.00 2010 2010 Mozambique Education Sector Support Program P112052 Fast Track Initiative Catalytic Fund TF 92651 79,000,000.00 2009 2011 Mozambique Water Private Sector Contracts - P104945 OBA for coverage expansion TF 91213 6,000,000.00 2008 2012 TF 97281 15,061,398.49 2011 Active P104566 Water Services and Institutional Support Project TF 90410 15,000,000.00 2008 Active Market-Led Smallholder Development in the P098040 Zambezi Valley TF 91638 6,200,000.00 2008 Active Debt Reduction Facility - MOZA TF 58011 16,100,000.00 2007 2009 Mozambique: Energy Reform and Access P071942 Program TF 57068 494,150.00 2007 2009 Pro Maputo, Maputo Municipal Development P096332 Program TF 92459 291,740.00 2009 2009 P087347 Technical and Vocational Education and Training TF 56866 7,350,000.00 2006 2012 Market-Led Smallholder Development in the P098040 Zambezi Valley TF 56873 150,000.00 2006 2007 Trans frontier Conservation Areas and Tourism P076809 Development Project TF 56038 10,000,000.00 2006 Active Trans frontier Conservation Areas and Tourism P071465 Development Project TF 54759 3,720,000.00 2005 Active Mozambique: Energy Reform and Access P071942 Program TF 52650 3,090,000.00 2004 2012 DRF - Commercial Debt Reduction TF 50871 900,000.00 2003 2008 Coastal and Marine Biodiversity Management P035919 Project TF 23844 4,100,000.00 2001 2008 Source: Mozambique FY 08-11 CPS and WB Business Warehouse Table 2a.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 02/06/2012. Annexes CPSCR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Analytical and Advisory Work, FY08-11 Proposed Delivered to Output Type AAA ID FY Client FY Economic and Sector Work Planned (CPS FY08-11) Modern Bio-fuels Analysis P101999 2008 2009 Report Regional Investment Climate Assessment P111496 2012 Report Regional Trade Report P110059 2012 Report Non-planned Mozambique: Response to higher food & fuel prices P113442 2009 Policy Note Mozambique: Land Policy Notes P118650 2011 Policy Note Pillar III AAA Policy Notes P107333 2008 Policy Note Mozambique: Accounting and Auditing ROSC P108428 2008 Report Analysis of Public Expenditures for Agriculture in Mozambique P110106 2009 Report Growth Poles and Special Economic Zones: Options for Bank Support P118628 2010 Policy Note Mozambique FSAP Update P113034 2009 Report Mozambique Urbanization and Municipal Development P106088 2009 Report Mozambique Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) P108901 2009 Report MTDS - Mozambique P122080 2011 Report Southern African Transport Corridors and Spatial Development: Implications for Growth, Equity and Food Security P106644 2009 Report Water PER P113534 2010 Report Public Expenditure Review in the Water Sector of Mozambique P117713 2010 Report Technical Assistance Planned (CS FY08-11) Institutional Mozambique Procurement Reforms Follow-UP P103208 2007 2008 Development Plan Non-planned 3A-Zambezi Basin Multi-Sector Investment Study P103333 2010 Report Knowledge-Sharing Southern Africa – Workshops on Large Project Finance P110502 2008 Forum Mozambique Water Sector Management Support P106338 2009 "How-To" Guidance Institutional MZ Poverty & Growth Diagnostics P117425 2011 Development Plan Knowledge-Sharing CPS Pillar I: Accountability and Public Voice P106515 2008 Forum Knowledge-Sharing Pillar III AAA TA P107321 2008 Forum Mozambique FSAP Follow up and Dialogue P114559 2009 "How-To" Guidance Municipal Revenue Potential Study P119314 2011 "How-To" Guidance Mozambique - Contingency Planning FIRST #8145 P121322 2011 "How-To" Guidance Resistance Monitoring & mapping for IRS P111130 2011 "How-To" Guidance Mozambique - AML/CFT Framework P109784 2008 "How-To" Guidance Mozambique EITI Implementation P112562 2009 "How-To" Guidance Institutional Mozambique Procurement Reforms Follow-UP P103208 2008 Development Plan Mozambique Poverty & PRSP TA (BPRP2) P099205 2009 "How-To" Guidance IHP and Health Systems P110861 2008 "How-To" Guidance Advice on Optimizing the Domestic Impact of Megaprojects P111178 2008 "How-To" Guidance High-Level Policy Conference on Medium-Term Economic Policy Priorities 2010 Mozambique MTEF Health Sector P107960 2009 Model/Survey Supporting the policy dialogue on natural resources, Institutional environment and adaptation to climate change P113170 2010 Development Plan Source: Mozambique FY 08-11 CPS and WB Business Warehouse Table ESW/TA 8.1.4 as of 02/07/2012. Annexes CPSCR Review 16 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3a: IEG Project Ratings for Country, FY08-11 Total IEG Risk to Exit FY Project Name Evaluated IEG Outcome Development (US$M) Outcome * 2008 P103277 MZ-PRSC 4 - intermediate 61.8 Satisfactory Moderate 2009 P001807 MZ-Decentr Planning &Fin SIL (FY04) 40.1 Satisfactory Negligible To Low 2009 P042039 MZ-Railway & Port Restr (FY00) 99.0 Moderately Satisfactory Moderate 2009 P052240 MZ-Natl Water 2 (FY99) 92.8 Satisfactory Moderate 2009 P073479 MZ-Com Sec Reform 13.9 Moderately Satisfactory Negligible To Low 2009 P107313 MZ-PRSC 5 (last) 0.0 Satisfactory Moderate 2010 P072080 MZ: Pub Sec Reform (FY03) 20.5 Unsatisfactory High Source: WB Business Warehouse Table 4a.5 and 4a.6 as of as of 8/17/2011. * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annex Table 3b: IEG Project Ratings for Mozambique and Comparators, FY08-11 Total RDO % RDO % Total Outcome Outcome Region Evaluated Moderate or Moderate or Evaluated ($M) % Sat ($) % Sat (No) (No) Lower ($) * Lower (No) * Mozambique 328.1 7 93.7 85.7 93.7 85.7 Uganda 471.6 8 75.9 75.0 78.9 62.5 Zambia 73.7 3 100.0 100.0 67.9 33.3 Tanzania 457.2 8 43.7 50.0 9.2 12.5 AFR 5913.3 149 77.4 67.6 38.5 39.2 World 31631.0 606 84.5 74.7 68.9 57.0 Source: WB Business Warehouse Table 4a.5 and 4a.6 as of as of 9/30/2011. * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annexes CPSCR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 4: Portfolio Status for Mozambique and Comparators, FY08-11 Fiscal year 2008 2009 2010 2011 Mozambique # Proj 16 14 15 19 # Proj At Risk 1 2 3 4 % At Risk 6.3 14.3 20.0 21.1 Net Comm Amt 797.7 620.3 670.1 995.4 Comm At Risk 55.0 80.6 128.9 259.2 % Commit at Risk 6.9 13.0 19.2 26.0 Uganda # Proj 17 16 18 19 # Proj At Risk 6 2 3 4 % At Risk 35.3 12.5 16.7 21.1 Net Comm Amt 1,244.5 1,415.4 1,536.6 1,754.6 Comm At Risk 326.2 210.0 380.0 417.0 % Commit at Risk 26.2 14.8 24.7 23.8 Zambia # Proj 11 8 10 9 # Proj At Risk 0 2 2 2 % At Risk 0.0 25.0 20.0 22.2 Net Comm Amt 371.9 304.9 399.9 519.9 Comm At Risk 0.0 62.2 119.0 118.2 % Commit at Risk 0.0 20.4 29.8 22.7 Tanzania # Proj 23 26 24 23 # Proj At Risk 2 3 2 5 % At Risk 8.7 11.5 8.3 21.7 Net Comm Amt 2,001.4 2,461.4 2,703.8 2,589.4 Comm At Risk 103.5 117.0 240.0 565.0 % Commit at Risk 5.2 4.8 8.9 21.8 AFR # Proj 419 440 454 470 # Proj At Risk 94 131 137 117 % At Risk 22.4 29.8 30.2 24.9 Net Comm Amt 23,306.8 28,177.8 34,188.5 37,466.4 Comm At Risk 5,890.2 6,950.5 9,494.2 7,949.7 % Commit at Risk 25.3 24.7 27.8 21.2 World # Proj 1,525 1,552 1,590 1,595 # Proj At Risk 276 344 366 337 % At Risk 18.1 22.2 23.0 21.1 Net Comm Amt 106,761.7 131,076.4 158,287.4 168,248.7 Comm At Risk 18,428.2 19,929.9 28,186.1 22,978.5 % Commit at Risk 17.3 15.2 17.8 13.7 Source: WB Business Warehouse Table 3a.4 as of 9/30/2011. Annexes CPSCR Review 18 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 5: IDA Net Disbursements and Charges Summary Report for Mozambique, FY08-11(in US$ million) FY Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer 2008 209.5 0.0 209.5 3.0 4.4 202.1 2009 207.9 0.6 207.3 0.0 8.2 199.1 2010 199.9 4.0 195.9 0.0 9.8 186.1 2011 174.3 5.1 169.2 0.0 10.6 158.5 Total (08-11) 791.6 9.7 782.0 3.0 33.1 745.9 Source: WB Loan Kiosk, Net Disbursement and Charges Report as of 9/28/2011. Annexes CPSCR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 6: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid, 2005- 2010(in US$ million) Development Partners 2007 2008 2009 2010 Bilaterals Australia 2.8 2.9 4.6 20.9 Austria 3.8 12.7 8.9 8.8 Belgium 23.4 25.9 23.1 34.0 Canada 57.3 77.2 75.2 82.0 Denmark 92.4 87.3 104.5 85.3 Finland 32.9 40.2 42.8 47.3 France 25.7 12.3 14.7 38.1 Germany 61.8 74.9 113.8 76.9 Greece .. 0.0 0.1 0.1 Ireland 68.7 74.2 63.9 56.6 Italy 42.6 34.6 24.8 35.3 Japan 27.8 23.7 60.7 62.9 Korea 0.2 1.0 0.4 1.0 Luxembourg 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 Netherlands 80.7 105.7 99.3 81.8 New Zealand 0.2 0.2 0.2 .. Norway 80.1 96.7 80.4 73.7 Portugal 21.6 25.1 68.0 112.6 Spain 53.8 78.5 68.8 43.9 Sweden 103.6 119.6 98.9 84.5 Switzerland 24.2 23.9 24.2 29.4 United Kingdom 115.7 197.9 54.9 104.4 United States 153.4 226.7 255.6 277.9 DAC Countries, Total 1073.4 1341.3 1287.7 1357.3 Czech Republic 0.1 0.0 .. Hungary 17.7 .. .. Iceland 3.3 3.6 1.7 2.0 Kuwait 1.6 Poland .. .. .. 0.0 Slovak Republic 0.1 0.2 .. 0.1 Slovenia .. .. .. Thailand 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 Turkey 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 United Arab Emirates .. .. 0.3 0.3 Arab Countries -0.7 -0.9 -0.2 Other Development Partners 1.6 .. .. Non-DAC Countries,Total 22.2 3.0 1.7 4.0 Multilaterals AfDB (African Dev. Bank) .. .. .. .. AfDF (African Dev. Fund) 79.6 67.4 75.2 73.7 Arab Agencies 8.7 13.7 8.5 .. AsDF (Asian Dev. Fund) .. .. .. .. BADEA .. .. .. 6.1 CarDB (Caribbean Dev. Bank) .. .. .. .. Council of Europe .. .. .. .. EBRD .. .. .. .. EU Institutions .. .. .. 192.3 GEF 7.5 6.9 3.5 0.9 GAVI .. 6.2 5.8 12.1 Global Fund 42.3 53.7 10.2 77.5 IAEA .. .. 0.4 0.3 IBRD .. .. .. .. IDA 251.7 279.7 212.9 164.2 Annexes CPSCR Review 20 Independent Evaluation Group Development Partners 2007 2008 2009 2010 IDB Spec. Fund .. .. .. .. IFAD 5.2 4.3 3.3 1.7 IMF Trust Fund .. .. .. 21.4 IMF (SAF,ESAF,PRGF) 5.0 .. 153.3 .. Isl.Dev Bank .. .. .. 4.3 Montreal Protocol .. .. .. .. Nordic Dev. Fund 7.5 13.1 4.9 2.4 OFID 1.8 UNAIDS 1.5 0.6 1.2 0.9 UNDP 8.1 9.1 8.0 8.1 UNECE .. .. .. .. UNFPA 3.8 5.9 4.2 12.0 UNHCR 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.8 UNICEF 14.3 15.7 16.3 15.8 UNRWA .. .. .. .. UNTA 2.4 0.8 0.8 .. WFP 8.4 10.1 9.4 1.9 WHO .. .. .. .. Multilateral Agencies, Total 447.0 488.2 519.2 598.1 All Development Partners, Total 1,542.66 1,832.39 1,808.59 1959.4 Source: OECD DAC Online database, Table 2a. Destination of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid - Disbursements, as of 02/07/2012. Annexes CPSCR Review 21 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: Economic and Social Indicators for Mozambique and Comparators, 2007- 2010 Mozambique Mozambique Uganda Zambia Tanzania AFR World Series Name 2007 2008 2009 2010 Average 2007-2010 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 7.3 6.8 6.4 7.2 6.9 7.4 6.5 6.9 4.6 1.9 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 4.7 4.3 4.0 4.8 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.9 2.1 0.7 GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) 730.0 790.0 880.0 930.0 832.5 1172.5 1275.0 1332.5 1111.0 8673.4 GNI, Atlas method (current US mil. $) 743.7 856.6 997.6 1034.4 908.1 1408.4 1188.5 2009.8 2056.7 10645.0 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 8.2 10.3 3.3 12.7 8.6 8.8 11.2 8.9 ... … Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 27.7 30.5 31.5 31.9 30.4 23.8 17.9 29.2 13.8 2.9 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 25.9 23.7 23.6 23.4 24.1 26.3 37.8 23.8 31.1 27.3 Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) 46.4 45.9 44.9 44.8 45.5 49.9 44.3 47.0 55.1 69.7 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 16.1 15.7 20.5 23.7 19.0 23.0 22.6 27.7 22.0 20.9 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) 6.3 1.6 2.2 5.7 4.0 12.6 28.0 14.4 17.0 21.0 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 35.4 32.3 24.5 25.3 29.3 22.2 39.3 23.5 32.3 27.6 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 45.2 46.4 42.8 43.2 44.4 32.9 34.0 37.3 35.4 27.8 Current account balance (% of GDP) -9.8 -11.9 -12.5 -11.6 -11.4 -8.0 -1.3 -10.4 ... … External debt (% of GDP) 39.1 36.6 41.7 43.8 40.3 15.8 25.5 32.6 ... … Total debt service (% of GNI) 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.2 0.6 1.9 … Total reserves in months of imports 4.1 3.7 5.3 5.5 4.7 6.0 3.1 4.8 6.7 12.8 Fiscal Accounts /1 Revenue (% of GDP) 15.9 15.8 17.4 18.4 16.9 16.7 20.8 15.5 … … Total Expenditure (% of GDP) 28.1 32.4 32.2 32.5 31.3 18.9 23.2 24.8 … … Overall Balance After Grants (% of GDP) -3.8 -4.5 -5.4 -4.9 -4.7 -2.3 -2.4 -3.9 … … Public Sector Gross Debt (% of GDP) 41.9 24.7 38.2 42.1 36.7 20.4 27.5 30.0 … … Social Indicators Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 48.6 48.9 49.3 … 48.9 52.4 47.0 55.8 53.2 69.1 Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months) 79.0 78.0 76.0 74.0 76.8 61.8 79.8 86.3 69.5 81.5 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) … 17.0 … … 17.0 48.0 49.0 24.0 31.4 60.6 Improved water source (% of population with access) … 47.0 … … 47.0 67.0 60.0 54.0 59.7 86.8 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 99.8 97.5 94.6 92.2 96.0 66.1 73.2 54.0 79.0 42.5 Population Population, total (in millions) 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.4 22.6 31.9 12.5 42.9 823.6 6725.2 Population growth (annual %) 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 3.2 2.4 2.9 2.5 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 36.1 36.8 37.6 38.4 37.2 13.1 35.5 25.7 36.7 50.2 Education School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) … … … … … 12.3 … 33.1 17.3 44.7 School enrollment, primary (% gross) 110.0 114.1 114.2 115.1 113.3 122.2 118.4 107.5 98.6 106.6 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 18.3 20.5 23.3 25.5 21.9 26.6 … 24.2 34.7 67.4 1/ IMF. Mozambique June 2011 Article IV Consultations and The Economist Intelligence Unit database. Source: WB World Development Indicators for all indicators excluding Fiscal Accounts data. Annexes CPSCR Review 22 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 8: Mozambique - Millennium Development Goals 1990 1995 2000 2009 Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Employment to population ratio, 15+, total (%) 80 79 79 78 Employment to population ratio, ages 15-24, total (%) 67 68 67 66 Income share held by lowest 20% .. 5.7 .. .. Malnutrition prevalence, weight for age (% of children under 5) .. 28.1 .. .. Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%) .. 42 .. .. Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) .. 81 .. .. Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) 59 48 46 38 Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment) .. .. .. .. Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Literacy rate, youth female (% of females ages 15-24) .. .. .. 62 Literacy rate, youth male (% of males ages 15-24) .. .. .. 78 Persistence to last grade of primary, total (% of cohort) .. .. 32 44 Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group) 26 26 16 59 Total enrollment, primary (% net) 44 44 56 80 Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%) 16 25 30 35 Ratio of female to male primary enrollment (%) 75 72 75 88 Ratio of female to male secondary enrollment (%) 57 61 63 75 Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment (%) 32 28 .. .. Share of women employed in the nonagricultural sector (% of total nonagricultural employment) 11.4 .. .. .. Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Immunization, measles (% of children ages 12-23 months) 59 71 71 77 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 155 139 123 96 Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000) 232 207 183 142 Goal 5: Improve maternal health Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19) .. .. 147 146 Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total) .. 44 .. 55 Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49) .. 6 .. 16 Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) 1,000 890 780 550 Pregnant women receiving prenatal care (%) .. 71 76 89 Unmet need for contraception (% of married women ages 15-49) .. 23 .. .. Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Children with fever receiving antimalarial drugs (% of children under age 5 with fever) .. .. .. 37 Condom use, population ages 15-24, female (% of females ages 15-24) .. 2 .. .. Condom use, population ages 15-24, male (% of males ages 15-24) .. 11 .. .. Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) 180 260 380 420 Prevalence of HIV, female (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. 8.5 Prevalence of HIV, male (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. 3 Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49) 1.4 4.5 9.5 12.5 Tuberculosis case detection rate (all forms) 65 43 31 42 Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability CO2 emissions (kg per PPP $ of GDP) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Forest area (% of land area) 25 25 25 24 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 11 12 14 17 Improved water source (% of population with access) 36 38 42 47 Marine protected areas (% of total surface area) .. .. .. 4 Terrestrial protected areas (% of total surface area) .. .. .. 15.7 Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development Debt service (PPG and IMF only, % of exports, excluding workers' remittances) 17 33 2 2 Internet users (per 100 people) 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) 0 0 0 20 Net ODA received per capita (current US$) 74 67 50 89 Telephone lines (per 100 people) 0 0 0 0 Other Fertility rate, total (births per woman) 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.1 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 170 130 230 440 GNI, Atlas method (current US$) (billions) 2.3 2.1 4.2 10.0 Gross capital formation (% of GDP) 22.1 27.0 31.0 21.0 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 43 46 48 48 Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above) .. 39 .. 54 Population, total (millions) 13.5 15.9 18.2 22.9 Trade (% of GDP) 44.2 56.6 53.5 68.9 Source: World Development Indicators database as of 02/07/2012. Annexes CPSCR Review 23 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 9: List of IFC’s Investments in Mozambique that were active during FY08-11 (US$’000) Project First Cmt Project Closure Project Net Net Total Net Primary Sector ID FY Status FY size Equity Loans Commitment Committed pre-FY08, but active during FY08-11 9636 2000 Closed 2008 Food & Beverages 1,496 0 506 506 Industrial & Consumer 10692 2003 Closed 2008 Products 444 0 250 250 20980 2004 Closed 2010 Food & Beverages 4,950 0 1,136 1,136 Finance & 25207 2006 Closed 2009 Insurance 2,000 0 107 107 7764 1998 Active Primary Metals 1,182,000 0 108,000 108,000 8021 1998 Active Food & Beverages 2,146 0 1,000 1,000 Agriculture and 9997 2001 Active Forestry 2,352 0 715 715 10323 2001 Active Primary Metals 717,692 0 13,321 13,321 10983 2004 Active Oil, Gas and Mining 18,500 18,500 0 18,500 Committed pre-FY08, but active during FY08-11, Total 18,500 125,035 143,535 Committed in FY08-11 Finance & 25610 2009 Active Insurance 8,500 0 8,500 8,500 25934 2009 Active Food & Beverages 7,000 0 7,000 7,000 Finance & 26459 2010 Active Insurance 2,500 0 4,858 4,858 27248 2009 Active Oil, Gas and Mining 20,000 5,000 0 5,000 Agriculture and 27398 2009 Active Forestry 15,800 0 7,000 7,000 Finance & 29163 2010 Active Insurance 30,000 0 30,000 30,000 29475 2010 Active Food & Beverages 30,778 0 8,000 8,000 Committed in FY08-11 Total 5,000 65,358 70,358 Grand Total 23,500 190,393 213,893 Source: IFC Annexes CPSCR Review 24 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 10: List of IFC’s Advisory Services in Mozambique, FY08-11 Project Approval Project Primary Business Start End ID Project Name FY Status Line Date Date Total Operations approved pre-FY08, but that continued through FY08-11 Sustainable Business 538103 ENH/CMG Pipeline FY07 Closed Advisory Sep-05 Jun-08 101,552 Mobile Banking Sustainable Business 552845 Mozambique FY07 Closed Advisory Jul-06 Jun-10 1,500,000 MOZ Impact of tax on business and Admin 548085 barriers FY06 Closed Investment Climate Jun-06 Dec-07 151,000 Mozambique Leasing 556545 Study FY07 Closed Access To Finance May-06 Nov-08 80,000 Mozambique Tourism Anchor Investment 544007 Program FY06 Active Investment Climate Sep-06 Mar-11 1,855,149 MSI Pre Investment Technical Assistance FY Sustainable Business 544647 07-09 FY07 Closed Advisory Jul-05 Dec-09 1,725,000 Sustainable Business 545585 MSI Program - DEJA VU FY07 Closed Advisory Jul-07 Dec-09 160,000 MSI Program - Spectrum Graphics Limitada Sustainable Business 534843 (Printing Shop) FY06 Closed Advisory Jun-06 Dec-09 70,000 Mozambique SME Linkage Development Sustainable Business 539823 Programme - MozLink FY07 Close Advisory Jan-07 Jun-10 1,000,000 Grand Total 6,642,701 New operations in FY08-11 Project Approval Project Primary Business Start End ID Project Name FY Status Line Date Date Total Public-Private Partnerships 29065 Moza_Water PPP FY10 Active Transaction Advisory Mar-10 Mar-12 1,320,262 MSI Program - TCT Sustainable 544005 Industrias Florestais, Lda FY09 Closed Business Advisory Sep-08 Jun-10 140,000 MSI- Program Nkwichi Sustainable 547848 Lodge FY09 Closed Business Advisory May-08 Dec-09 86,500 553346 AMSMETA BCI FY08 Active Access To Finance Oct-08 Feb-11 1,836,850 SGL-Printing Shop Sustainable 564068 HIV/AIDS FY09 Closed Business Advisory Mar-08 Dec-09 9,530 564747 AMSMETA ABCH MZ. FY10 Hold Access To Finance Jul-10 Dec-12 1,016,877 569790 ACBP2-Mozambique FY10 Active Access To Finance Jul-09 Jun-11 269,666 Sustainable 570948 infoDev-MZ-Incub FY09 Active Business Advisory Jun-09 Jun-11 488,000 Guy Carpenter Micro Risk 579027 Transfer FY11 Active Access To Finance Apr-11 Mar-13 1,000,000 Grand Total 6,167,685 Source: IFC Annexes CPSCR Review 25 Independent Evaluation Group Annex 11: Mozambique: MIGA Guarantees during FY08-11 Sum of Original Year of Year of Guarantee Guarantee Beneficiary Amount Issued guarantee guarantee Status in FY12 Client country Host country and Holder ($M) issuance expiration Agribusiness 4106 50.7 FY2001 FY2017 Active Mauritius/ South Mozambique Africa Financial 9161 2.5 FY2011 FY2021 Active Germany Mozambique Infrastructure 3323 32.0 FY2000 FY2020 Cancelled in South Africa Mozambique/ FY09 Swaziland Manufacturing 1938 40.0 FY1998 FY2013 Active South Africa Mozambique Manufacturing 7838 9.1 FY2011 FY2021 Active Japan Mozambique Mining 4438 20.8 FY2003 FY2018 Active Ireland/Germany Mozambique Oil and Gas 4154 109.4 FY2003 FY2022 Active South Africa Mozambique Services 4535 2.0 FY2002 FY2017 Active Denmark Mozambique Grand Total 266.4 Source: MIGA Annexes CPSCR Review 26 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 12: Summary of Achievements of the CPS Objectives. CPS 08-11: Pillar 1 Actual Results Comments Increase Accountability and Public Voice (as of current month year) Objectives 1. Improve Economic Governance 2. Provide stronger Citizens’ Oversight Mechanisms Major 1.Improve Economic Governance Outcome Measures - Improved budget planning at central, district The number of agencies enrolled Source: CPSCR. and municipal level: e-SISTAFE (Integrated in SISTAFE system increased Financial Management Information System) substantially from two ministries is rolled-out to at least 25 ministries and in 2007 to 23 ministries and 11 government agencies, and rolled out to at provinces in 2010. least 27 districts by end- 2007 and is based on new PAF targets subsequently - Total revenue as percentage of GDP Revenue exceeded targets: Source: CPSCR increased from 14.8% in 2006 to 14.9% in 16.4% in 2007, 16.0% in 2008, 2007, 15.4% in 2008, and 15.9% in 2009 and 17.4% in 2009. Republic of Mozambique: Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation. IMF. - Improved government fiduciary systems: The number of central and Source: CPSCR. Increase the coverage and efficiency of provincial level bodies with internal audit bodies: operational internal controls Targets are MZ PAF targets and 2009 - Increase number of central and provincial increased: 25% in 2007, 59% in target was formally revised to 75%. level bodies with operational internal 2008, and 75% in 2009. controls from 20% in 2006 to 30% in 2007 to 65% in 2008 to 100% in 2009 2. Provide stronger Citizens’ Oversight Mechanisms Improved government information and This outcome was not Source: CPSCR. communication systems: monitored. - Cumulative number of state institutions Electronic platforms (Govnet and eGov) linked to the electronic government at have been developed. central, provincial and local levels from 50 in 2006 to 100 in 2009 - Percentage of Districts effectively This outcome was not implementing communication strategy monitored. Source: CPSCR. linking communities to local administration to 60% by 2009 Activities were implemented and some outputs achieved: communication strategy was formulated, training of media staff and on new law on local organs and participatory planning was carried out. Increased efficiency in legal and judicial services There is no information in selected provinces: available. Source: CPSCR. - Number of days between the intake of a new case in the justice system and its Baseline was never established and sentence reduced by at least 10% by 2009 indicator was not monitored. in the provincial courts of Maputo, Sofala, Nampula, Tete and Niassa Ongoing pre P083459 PRSC 3 Approved FY07. Closed FY08. Latest IR: Satisfactory. CPS 08-11 P001807 Decentralized Planning and Financing Approved FY04. Closed FY09. IEG outcome rating: Satisfactory. Support Project P072080 Pub Sec Reform Project Approved FY03. Closed FY10. IEG outcome rating: Unsatisfactory. New P103277 PRSC 4 Approved FY08. Closed FY09. IEG outcome rating: Satisfactory. Lending P107313 PRSC 5 Approved FY09. Closed FY10. IEG outcome rating: Satisfactory. Support P111432 e-Government and Communications Approved FY09. Active Infrastructure Project P107311 National Decentralized Planning and Approved FY10. Active. Finance Program Planned P096170 Procurement Reforms Follow up Delivered to Client FY08. AAA Additional P106088 Mozambique Urbanization and Delivered to Client FY09. AAA Municipal Development P108428 Accounting and Auditing ROSC Delivered to Client FY08. Annexes CPSCR Review 27 Independent Evaluation Group CPS 08-11: Pillar 2 Actual Results Comments Ensure Equitable Access to Key Services (as of current month year) Objectives 1.Improve Government Effectiveness in the Provision of Services Major Outcome 1.Improve Government Effectiveness in the Provision of Services Measures Increase access to information on HIV/AIDS and to The number of people receiving Source: CPSCR treatment: ARV treatment increased from - Increase number of people receiving ARV 34,000 in 2006 to more than IR. P078053 HIV/AIDS Response Project. treatment from 34,000 in 2006 to 60,000 in 234,000 in 2010. 2009 Improve equity in health services: There is no progress on this Source: CPSCR. - Increase number of people reached through outcome. outreach teams and teams of community Project was delayed and only became health workers providing basic health services effective in June 2010. in the provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa to 6.1 million (50% of the provinces’ population) Improve quality of technical and vocational education: This outcome was not Source: CPSCR. - Increase percentage of graduates from monitored. medium level TVET schools, who found jobs, Some intermediate results/milestones were or create jobs in their field of study by 50% achieved: 19 qualifications and related modules were developed for Agriculture, Industrial Maintenance, Tourism and Administration and Management. - Increased access to potable water: Increase In September 2009, an Source: CPSCR. total number of additional people connected to additional 192,443 people had potable water in the cities of Beira, Nampula, access to piped HH water Quelimane and Pemba from 0 in 2007 to (36,310 HH connections). 53,000 in 2011 (10,000 new households connected with 5.3 average people per household) Increase total rural population in the Northern provinces of There are no WB operations to Source: CPSCR. Zambezia, Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Nampula with support this outcome. access to potable water from 1.8m in 2007 to 2.16m in Access grew at 200,000 to 250,000 people 2011 per year in the targeted provinces, supported by AfDB, complementing the WB program in urban areas. Increase total urban population in the Northern provinces of There are no WB operations to Source: CPSCR P104566 Water Services Zambezia, Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Nampula with support this outcome. and Institutional Support Project IR. access to potable water from 0.9m in 2007 to 1.06m in 2011 Increase sustainable and affordable access to electricity to An additional 236 public Source: CPSCR. institutions outside the power network: facilities (125 clinics and 111 - Increase number of hospitals and schools with schools) were electrified by access to electricity from 200 in 2006 to 500 in May 2010. 2009 Ongoing P052240 National Water Development Project Approved FY99. Closed FY09. IEG outcome rating: Satisfactory. pre CPS 08- P078053 HIV/AIDS Response Project Approved FY03. Closed FY11. Latest IR: Moderately Satisfactory. 11 Support P069183 Energy Reform and Access Project Approved FY04. Closed FY11. Latest IR: Satisfactory. P087347 Technical and Vocational Education and Training Approved FY06. Active. Latest IR: Satisfactory. New P104566 Water Services and Institutional Support Project Approved FY08. Active. Latest IR: Satisfactory. Lending P099930 Health Service Delivery Approved FY09. Active. Latest IR: Moderately Satisfactory. Support P108444 Energy Development and Access Project (APL-2) Approved FY10. Active. Latest IR: Satisfactory. P120546 AF to Water Services and Institutional Support Approved FY11. Active. Project P121060 Health Commodity Security Project Approved FY11. Active. Planned AAA NA Additional AAA NA Annexes CPSCR Review 28 Independent Evaluation Group CPS 08-11: Pillar 3 Actual Results Comments Ensure Equitable and Broad-Based Growth (as of current month year) Objectives 1.Enable International and Local Investments 2.Strengthen Economic Growth Potential Major Outcome 1.Enable International and Local Investments Measures - Increased access to finance and This outcome was not explicitly Source: CPSCR. support for SMEs: Increased credit supported by the WB operations. to SMEs as % of GDP There was an increase in percentage of banks fulfilling norms and IAS/IFRS from baseline 0% in 2006 to 93% in 2010 compared to target of 80%. 2.Strengthen Economic Growth Potential Increased Tele-density and access to ICT-based It increased to 20.6 in 2008 Source: CPSCR. services: - Increase tele-density from 8% in 2006 to 22% by 2009 Improved mobility: The percentage of road network Source: CPSCR. - Increase percentage of road in good and fair conditions was network in good and fair conditions 71% in 2009. The baseline provided by the CPSCR is from 76% in 2007 to 78% in 2009 different from the CPS: 64% in 2007. - Improve financial sustainability of There is no information available Source: CPSCR. rehabilitation and maintenance of on this outcome. the road network The APL1 set up the National Roads Fund (financing roads maintenance) and revenue targets were surpassed by up to 20% each year, reaching US$61.3 m (over a US$55m target) in mid 2007. - Increase freight traffic for railways There is no information Source: CPSCR. and ports available. In 2002 the freight traffic was: Ports: 8.2 million tons; Railways: 4.1 million tons and in 2009: Ports: 11.6 m tons, Railways: 4.35 m tons. The baseline provided by the CPSCR is for 2002 instead of the CPS start, hence it is irrelevant for evaluating the progress. - Increase passenger traffic for ferries There was an increase in annual Source: CPSCR. traffic: at Maputo from 1.90 million in 2007 to 3.40 in 2009, at Inhambane from 0.57 million in 2007 to 0.70 in 2009, and at Quelimane from 0.36 million in 2007 to 0.63 in 2009 Increased access to technologies and extension The number of peasants Source: CPSCR. information: assisted by extension services - Increase total number of peasants increased to 364,752 in 2009. The baseline provided in the CPSCR is assisted by the public extension different from the CPS: 285,000 in 2007. services, including sub-contracting from 222,000 in 2007 to 411,000 in 2009 - Increase number of bed-nights in There were 192,694 bed-nights Source: CPSCR. tourism facilities in target districts to in 2009. 100,000 Strengthen hydropower generation and export Bank energy sector activities Source: CPSCR. capacity through Cahora Bassa undertaken during the CPS period did not support this A preliminary work to prepare a new outcome, as the Cahora Bassa Regional Transmission Development facility was already in place. (“Backbone”) project commenced during the CPS period, which will evacuate power from new, privately-developed hydropower projects in the Tete region. The Board date for this project has been moved to FY12. Annexes CPSCR Review 29 Independent Evaluation Group Improved sustainable management of water There was no progress on this Source: CPSCR. resources: outcome. - Ensure Maputo water supply requirements (to 2020) are met - Develop management plan and There was no progress on this Source: CPSCR. infrastructure operating rules for the outcome. lower Zambezi Basin Zambezi Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis is completed. Enhanced capacity to respond to disasters: There was no progress on this Source: CPSCR. - Establish early warning and outcome. emergency preparedness systems A Drought and Flood Risk Atlas for Mozambique, and a number of databases was delivered which inform policy making; several sectors have integrated disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change into strategies, mgmt of droughts and floods incorporated as priorities in the 2007 Water Policy and the National Strategy for Water Resources and reflected in annual and five-year plans. The second phase of INGC’s Study on Climate Change and Disaster Risk, implements disaster risk reduction in eight major priority areas: Early Warning and Response; Coastal Protection; Urban Areas; Resilient Communities; Preparedness; Water Management: Agriculture; and Analysis of Climate Extremes. Ongoing pre P052240 National Water Development Project Approved FY99. Closed FY09. Latest IR: Satisfactory. CPS 08-11 P042039 Railways & Ports Restructuring Project Approved FY00. Closed FY09. IEG outcome rating: Moderately Support Satisfactory. P073479 Communication Sector Reform Project Approved FY02. Closed FY09. IEG outcome rating: Moderately Satisfactory. P093165 Market led Smallholder Development Approved FY06. Active. Latest IR: Moderately Unsatisfactory. in the Zambezi Valley P071465 Transfrontier Conservation Areas and Approved FY06. Active. Latest IR: Satisfactory. Tourism Development Project Roads and Bridges Management and Approved FY07. Active. Latest IR: Satisfactory. Maintenance Program – Phase II P083459 PRSC 3 Approved FY07. Closed FY08. Latest IR: Satisfactory. New P084404 Southern African Power Market Approved FY08. Active. Latest IR: Unsatisfactory. Lending Program: Mozambique Transmission Support Interconnection Project P106355 Competitiveness and Private Sector Approved FY09. Active. Latest IR: Moderately Satisfactory. Development AF Roads and Bridges Management and Approved FY11. Active. Maintenance Program – Phase II New Non- P124755 Programmatic Support to Disaster Lending Risk Management Phase I Support P096503 Country Economic Memorandum Delivered to Client FY09. (Grants and P111496 Regional Investment Climate Delivered to Client FY12. Special Assessment Financing P110059 Regional Trade Delivered to Client FY12. Projects) Planned AAA Additional P111178 Advice on Optimizing the Domestic Delivered to Client FY08. AAA Impact of Megaprojects P103333 Regional ESW – Zambezi Multi-Sector Delivered to Client FY08. Investment Opportunities Analysis P114559 Mozambique FSAP Follow up and Delivered to Client FY09. Dialogue P108901 Mozambique Investment Climate Delivered to Client FY09. Assessment (ICA) P118628 Growth Poles and Special Economic Delivered to Client FY10. Zones: Options for Bank Support