W_~~ ~~~~~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~ . .... ... 1~~~~11 W _.:', _ ',.,~ I, ' 'S 2'"'''142' DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT RAINS-ASIA An Assessment Model for Acid Deposition in Asia Robert J. Downing Ramesh Ramankutty jitendra J. Shah The World Bank Washington, D.C. (© 1997 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing August 1997 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this study are en- tirely those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to the members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The boundaries, colors, de- nominations, and other information shown on the maps in this volume do not imply on the part of the World Bank any judgment on the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The cover map, "Acid Deposition in Excess of Critical Loads in Asia," was gen- erated from version 7.02 of the RAINS-ASIA model. At the time of writing, Robert J. Downing was a consultant to the World Bank. Ramesh Ramankutty is an economist in the World Bank's Asia Technical Group. Jitendra J. Shah is an environmental engineer in the Asia Technical Group. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Downing, Robert J., 1961- Rains-Asia: an assessment model for acid deposition in Asia / Robert J. Downing, Ramesh Ramankutty, Jitendra J. Shah. p. cm. - (Directions in development) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8213-3919-2 1. Acid rain-Environmental aspects-Asia-Mathematical models. 2. Energy policy-Environmental aspects-Asia-Mathematical models. 3. Energy development-Environmental aspects-Asia-Mathematical models. 4. Asia-Economic policy-Mathematical models. 1. Ramankutty, Ramesh, 1960- . II. Shah, Jitendra f., 1952- III. Title. IV. Series: Directions in development (Washington, D.C.) QC926.57.A78D69 1997 363.738'6'011353682-dc2l 97-10470 CIP Contents Foreword vii Acknowledgments ix The Project Team xi Summary 1 1 Acid Rain: An Overview 5 The Acidification Phenomenon 7 The Integrated Assessment Approach to Acid Deposition 8 Learning from the European and North American Experience 9 The Outlook for Asia 11 Current Acid Rain-Related Monitoring Activities in Asia 12 2 Institutional Arrangements for the RAINS-ASIA Program 15 Networks 16 3 The RAINS-ASIA Model 18 Scope and Limitations of the Model 19 The Regional Energy Scenario Generator (RESGEN) Module 20 Energy and Emissions Module 22 Deposition and Critical Loads Assessment (DEP) Module 29 4 Results from the First Phase 38 Base-Case (Reference) Scenario 38 Basic Control Technology (BCT) 40 Local Advanced Control Technology (LAcT) 45 Best Available Technology (BAT) 48 Advanced Emission Control Technology (ACT) 48 Other Emissions Control Options 51 Application of the Model 51 5 Conclusions and Future Work 54 Future Modifications of the Model 55 RAINS-ASIA Phase II 57 iii iv RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA Appendix: Database Structure of the RAINS-ASIA Model 58 Bibliography 66 Figures 1 Processes Involved in Acid Deposition 7 2 Past and Projected Sulfur Dioxide Emissions for Asia, Europe, and the United States and Canada 11 3 Location of Passive Sulfur Dioxide Samplers Established in the RAINS-ASIA Project 13 4 Major Components of the RAINS-ASIA Model 19 5 Total Energy Demand, by Fuel Type, for the Base-Case and Energy- Efficiency Scenarios 23 6 Locations of the 355 Large Point Sources in the RAINS-ASIA Model 26 7 Annual Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in Asia, 1990 28 8 Sulfur Deposition in Asia, 1990 32 9 Critical Loads for Acidity 35 10 Excess Sulfur Deposition above Critical Loads, 1990 36 11 Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, by Fuel, under the Reference Scenario 39 12 Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, by Sector, under the Reference Scenario 40 13 Sulfur Deposition in 2020 under the Reference Scenario 41 14 Excess Sulfur Deposition above Critical Loads in 2020 under the Reference Scenario 42 15 Ambient Levels of Sulfur Dioxide Concentration in 2020 under the Reference Scenario 43 16 Excess Sulfur Deposition above Critical Loads for the BCT Scenario itn 2020 46 17 Excess Sulfur Deposition above Critical Loads for the LACT Scenario in 2020 47 18 Excess Sulfur Deposition above Critical Loads for the BAT Scenario in 2020 49 19 Excess Sulfur Deposition above Critical Loads for the ACT Scenario in 2020 52 Appendix Figure Al Subnational Regions in the RAwNS-ASIA Model 59 Text Tables 1 Emissions and Control Costs under Alternative Scenarios 4 2 Summary of Sulfur Dioxide-Monitoring Data from the Passive Sampling Network 12 3 Total Emissions of Sulfur Dioxide and the Average Annual Growth Rate of Emissions under the Base-Case, No-Control Scenario 27 4 Emission Sources Contributing to Sulfur Deposition in Chongqing, China 31 5 Emissions Levels of Sulfur Dioxide and Control Costs per Country for the BAT, ACT, AND BCT Scenarios 44 CONTENTS V 6 Emissions and Control Costs for the Base-Case Energy Pathway Compared with the Energy-Efficiency Pathway, for Three Different Scenarios 45 Appendix Tables Al Economies and Regions in the RAINs-AsIA Model 60 A2 Economic Sectors in the RAINS-ASIA Model 64 A3 Fuel Types in the RAINS-ASIA Model 65 A4 Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Control Technologies in the RAINS-ASIA Model 65 Boxes 1 Acid Rain Damage in Asia 6 2 The Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution and the RAINS-ASIA Model 10 3 Emissions Control Technologies and Costs 25 4 What Is a Critical Load? 33 5 Ecosystems Considered in the RAINS-ASIA Model 34 6 Measures Considered for Each Control Scenario 50 Foreword In the past several decades, many Asian countries have experienced economic growth unmatched elsewhere in the world. Escalating de- mand for energy is one of the consequences of this economic growth. Although increased energy consumption indicates an improvement in the general standard of living, it also portends serious environmental consequences at the local, regional, and even global levels. Much of the energy demand in Asia is satisfied by fossil fuels. Sulfur and nitrogen oxides are emitted by combustion of fossil fuels such as coal. These pollutants are oxidized and transported in the atmosphere. The resulting acid deposition, commonly known as "acid rain," causes severe environmental damage to natural and constructed surfaces. In addition, fine particles of sulfate and nitrate in the air can have adverse effects on human health. Acid rain knows no political or national bound- aries. Its effects can be felt hundreds of kilometers from the source. Ex- perience from Europe and North America shows that unless preventive and corrective actions are taken now, future mitigation could be quite burdensome. Waiting for the problem to become widespread before tak- ing action will likely result in irreversible environmental damage. As an integrated assessment tool, the RAINS-ASIA model is designed to study future energy development strategies and their implications for acid rain and to help policymakers and scientists in Asian countries ex- plore cost-effective abatement strategies. The model allows the user to look ahead and understand what actions could be taken now to prevent future damage. RAINS-ASIA iS part of a continuing effort by the World Bank and other multilateral institutions to assess the causes and effects of regional environmental problems and explore options to ameliorate them. This particular program and the associated model have been jointly funded by the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and several donors. Researchers and policymakers from several Asian and Euro- pean countries have collaborated in its development and are currently engaged in refining and updating the model. vii viii RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA This report provides an overview of the model and some results of analyses that have been conducted as part of the RAINS-ASIA program. It is hoped that this report will stimulate both interest in the topic and use of the model for applications in Asia. Mieko Nishimizu Jean-Michel Severino Vice President Vice President South Asia Regional Office East Asia and the Pacific The World Bank Regional Office The World Bank Acknowledgments The RAINS-ASIA project is a collaborative effort of several research institutions in Asia, Europe, and North America. The model's de- velopment process was organized into four principal tasks: energy and emissions; transport, deposition, and monitoring; ecosystem sensitivity; and project integration. Asian and Western project leaders and focal cen- ters were established to develop the model and to facilitate networking and information exchange among project participants. A complete list of institutions and participants appears in The Project Team, page xi. This effort was supported with active participation from ministries and agencies in Asian countries; by grants from the Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Norwegian Consultant Trust Funds, the Netherlands Consultant Trust Funds, the Swedish Consultant Trust Funds, and the Asian Development Bank; and with in-kind contribu- tions from participating institutions. The RAINS-ASIA technical report and model were peer reviewed by an international team of scientists: H. Dovland of the Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Norway; R. K. Pachauri of the Tata Energy Research Institute, India; B. Lulbkert-Alcamo from the National Institute for Pub- lic Health and the Environment, the Netherlands; B. Scharer from the Federal Environmental Agency, Germany; D. M. Whelpdale from the Atmospheric Environment Service, Canada; H. Ueda from Kyushu Uni- versity, Japan; K. Bull from the Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, United Kingdom; Sijin Lee from Kyong-gi University, Republic of Korea; K. C. Moon from the Korean Institute of Science and Technology, Republic of Korea; and S. Seki from the Environment Agency, Japan. Valter Angell of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs provided valuable oversight and assistance to the project. Special acknowledgments are due to the Internal Steering Commit- tee at the World Bank, consisting of Anil Malhotra, Dennis Anderson, Arun Sanghvi, Todd Johnson, Carl-Heinz Mumme, Joseph Gilling, Mudassar Imran, Achilles Adamantiades, and Charles Feinstein. The task managers for the program are Jitendra J. Shah at the World Bank (with overall management guidance from Maritta Koch-Weser) and Ali Azimi at the Asian Development Bank (with overall management ix x RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA guidance from Bindu Lohani). Special acknowledgment is given also to the following technical contributors: Markus Amann, Gregory Carmichael, Michael Chadwick, Zhao Dianwu, Collin Green, Wesley Foell, Jean-Paul Hettelingh, and Leen Hordjik. This Directions in Development Book is based primarily on the RAINs- ASIA technical papers prepared by the project team. The full report, "RAINs- ASIA Technical Report: The Development of an Integrated Model for Sul- fur Deposition," is forthcoming from the World Bank's Asia Environmental Group. Diskettes of the RAINS-ASIA model may be ordered from the International Institution for Applied System Analysis (IIASA); the full address is provided on the last page of this book. Suhashini DeFazio, Tanvi Nagpal, and Wolf Publications were responsible for ed- iting and producing this summary. The Project Team CONTRACT MANAGEMENT World Bank Jitendra J. Shah, Asia Technical Group Asian Development Bank Ali Azimi, Office of Environment PROJECT MANAGEMENT United States and Europe Leen Hordijk, Wageningen Agricultural University, The Netherlands Wesley Foell, Resource Management Associates, United States Asia S. C. Bhattacharya, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand R. M. Shrestha, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand ENERGY AND EMISSIONS United States and Europe Project leader Wesley Foell, Resource Management Associates, United States Institutions Resource Management Associates, United States Argonne National Laboratory, United States Centre for Economic Analysis, Norway Asia Project leaders S. C. Bhattacharya, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand R. M. Shrestha, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand Focal centers Bangladesh: Bangladesh Council of Scientific and Industrial Research China: Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences India: Tata Energy Research Institute xi xii RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA Indonesia: Institute of Technology at Bandung Republic of Korea: Korean Institute of Energy Economics Japan: University of Tokyo Malaysia: University Sains Malaysia Myanmar: Ministry of Energy Pakistan: Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission Philippines: Department of Energy Thailand: Department of Energy Development and Promotion Vietnam: Institute of Energy TRANSPORT, DEPOSITION, AND MONITORING United States and Europe Project leader Greg Carmichael, University of Iowa, United States Asia Project leader Manju Mohan, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi, India Institutions China: Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences Hong Kong, China: Royal Observatory Republic of Korea: Ajou University Korean Institute of Science and Technology Japan: Central Research Institute, Electric Power Industry Kyushu University Monitoring network collaborators Bangladesh: Jahangimagar University China: Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences China (Taiwan): Taiwan National University Hong Kong, China: Hong Kong Polytechnic India: Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi Indonesia: Institute of Technology at Bandung Republic of Korea: Ajou University Malaysia: Malaysia Meteorological Agency Nepal: Nepal Meteorological Services Sweden: Swedish Environmental Research Institute Thailand: Environmental Research and Training Center Vietnam: Institute of Chemistry, Center for Research PROJECT TEAM Xiii ECOSYSTEM SENSITIVITY United States and Europe Project leader Jean-Paul Hettelingh, National Institute of Public Health and Environ- ment, The Netherlands Institutions Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden University of Lund, Sweden GEODAN, The Netherlands Asia Project leader Zhao Dianwu, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, China Institutions Bangladesh: Jahangirnagar University China (Taiwan): Taiwan National University Republic of Korea: Kyong-gi University Japan: National Institute for Environmental Studies Vietnam: Institute of Chemistry, Center for Research PROJECT INTEGRATION United States and Europe Project leader Markus Amann, IIASA, Austria Other participating institutions Australia: University of Technology, Commonwealth Scientific and In- dustrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Sydney Thailand: King Monguts Institute of Technology Electric Generating Authority of Thailand Thailand Development Research Institute United States: Oak Ridge National Laboratory East-West Center, Honolulu International United Nations Environment Program (UN1EP) Economic and Social Council for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) Summary A sian countries are undergoing an unprecedented economic trans- formation. Underlying Asia's rapid economic growth are high rates of industrialization and rapid urbanization fueled by a growing appe- tite for commercial energy. Demand for primary energy in Asia is ex- pected to double every twelve years (the world average is every twenty- eight years). Fossil fuels account for about 80 percent of energy generation in Asia, with coal accounting for about 40 percent of energy produced. Because of its abundance and easy recoverability, especially in India and China, coal will remain the fuel of choice in the future. Demand for coal is projected to increase by about 6.5 percent a year, a rate that outpaces expected regional economic growth. These trends portend a variety of environmental impacts, including acid rain caused by emissions of sulfur dioxide from burning of coal. Acid rain damages ecosystems directly and indirectly. Direct effects of acid rain include damage to foliage, particularly crop plants, whereas indirect damage occurs through acidification of soils and surface wa- ters. At current energy consumption growth rates, by 2000 sulfur diox- ide emissions from Asia will surpass the emissions of North America and Europe combined. Many ecosystems will be unable to absorb these increased acid depositions, leading to irreversible ecosystem damage with far-reaching implications for forestry, agriculture, fisheries, and tourism. Striking similarities exist between the challenges currently facing Asia and the European situation in the late 1960s, when declining fish popu- lations in Scandinavian countries first drew attention to the acid rain problem. Already, there is growing evidence of acid rain damage in sev- eral East Asian countries. A survey by the National Environmental Pro- tection Agency indicates that about 40 percent of China's agricultural land is affected by acid rain. In Thailand, power production at Mae Moh using high-sulfur lignite mined in the area was responsible for serious illness among villagers living near the power plant and damage to trees and crops in the area during a 1992 episode of acid rain. Growing concern about the acid rain problem prompted a series of expert meetings in Asia during the late 1980s. A consensus emerged that 1 2 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA it was essential to develop an assessment tool to understand acid rain in Asia and to help develop strategies to mitigate or avert the problem. A project to develop an integrated assessment model called RAINS-ASIA (Re- gional Air Pollution Information and Simulation Model for Asia) emerged from this consensus. RAINS-ASIA is a computerized scientific tool to help policymakers assess and project future trends in emissions, trans- port, and deposition of air pollutants and their potential environmental impacts. The model was developed as an international cooperative ven- ture involving scientists from Asia, Europe, and North America. This book provides an overview of the RAINS-ASIA model and presents some of its results. To reach the maximum number of potential users, the model is designed to run on standard IBM-compatible computers and is user-friendly (ordering information is provided at the back of this book). A companion user's manual has been produced, and on-line help is available for guidance and troubleshooting. Individual modules can guide users through the sequence of steps nec- essary for creating and evaluating emission control plans. The RAINS-ASIA model consists of three modules, each addressing a different part of the acidification process. The Regional Energy and Scenario Generator (RESGEN) module estimates energy pathways based on socioeconomic and techno- logical assumptions; the Energy and Emission module (ENEM) uses the energy scenarios to calculate sulfur emissions and costs of control strate- gies; and the Deposition and Critical Loads (DEP) module calculates the levels and patterns of sulfur deposition resulting from a given scenario and then assesses the resulting environmental impacts. In its current version, the model is designed to analyze emissions and environmental impacts of sulfur dioxide. It assesses only the indi- rect effects of sulfur deposition on soil. It does not include the effect of sulfur dioxide on terrestrial ecosystems through direct exposure or the effect on human health, aquatic ecosystems, and materials damage. In the future, the model and its individual modules will be validated against monitoring data. A number of scenarios, based on assumptions about future socioeco- nomic conditions, have already been generated using the RAINS-ASIA model. These scenarios predict levels of energy use, emissions, and en- vironmental pollution. The starting point of these analyses is the "base- case" or status quo scenario that forecasts future conditions assuming that no changes are made in present rates of economic and population growth or in present economic, energy, and environmental policies. In the base case, total energy demand increases at an average rate of 4 per- cent per year during the period 1990-2020, and the relative importance of coal in primary energy production remains comparatively stable at or near 1990 levels of 41 percent of total fuel use. Because of the high rate of economic growth forecast for the region, sulfur emissions are SUMMARY 3 projected to increase from 33.6 million tons in 1990 to more than 110 million tons by 2020-an increase of 230 percent-if no actions are taken to restrict emissions. This huge increase in energy consumption and sulfur dioxide emis- sions brings about similar increases in sulfur deposition. Many industrial areas of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand experience sulfur deposition levels of 5-10 grams per square meter per year, whereas local hot spots in some industrial areas of China receive more than 18 grams of sulfur per square meter per year. In comparison, the maximum levels reached in the most heavily polluted parts of Central and Eastern Europe-the black triangle- were approximately 15 grams per square meter per year. These levels resulted in the premature death of many tree species in an area covering southwest Poland, northwest Czech Republic, and southeast Germany. The model projects that large sections of south- ern and eastern China, northern and eastern India, the Korean peninsula, and northern and central Thailand will receive levels of acid deposition that will exceed the carrying capacity of the ecosystem. Although the base-case scenario may be used as the worst-case scenario (because it assumes that no new measures are undertaken to control emissions), one can also investigate the best-case scenario, of the Best Available Technology (BAT) strategy. In this scenario, sul- fur dioxide emissions decrease by more than 50 percent in thirty years, from 33.6 million tons in 1990 to 16.3 million tons by 2020. As a re- sult, nearly all areas of Asia attain sustainable levels of sulfur depo- sition that avoid ecosystem damage, although problems still exist in areas of China where there is heavy industrial activity. The cost of implementing the BAT strategy is estimated at US$90 billion per year, or about 0.6 percent of the region's gross domestic product (GDP). The RAINS-ASIA model also contains an energy-efficiency scenario which assumes that concerted attempts are made to use energy more efficiently. There are a variety of control options between the extremes of the base- case scenario and the BAT scenario. The RAINS-ASIA model can simulate emis- sions reductions for several of these options, such as Basic Control Tech- nology, Local Advanced Control Technology, and Advanced Emission Control Technology, and provide estimates of emission reductions and required investments for each. These reductions in emissions can cost US$2 billion-$90 billion per year (that is, up to 0.6 percent of regional GDP), based on the energy-efficiency and base-case scenarios shown in table 1. De- pending on the level of ecosystem protection required for the most sensi- tive regions and budget limitations, the model can assist with the plan- ning and designing of the most cost-effective options. The RAINS-ASIA model can be used for a variety of purposes: energy and environmental planning; identifying critical ecosystems and their sulfur-carrying capacities; following emissions from an area or point 4 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA Table 1. Emissions and Control Costs under Alternative Scenarios Sulfur dioxide Control costs emissions, 2020 (billions of 1990 (millions of tons) U.S. dollars per year) Energy- Energy- Base efficiency Base efficiency Control strategies case case case case Best available technologies 16 12 90 66 Advanced control technologies 50 39 39 26 Basic control technologies 63 47 40 27 No further control 111 80 4 2 source to estimate deposition; identifying the sources contributing to deposition in an ecosystem; exploring different mitigation strategies and estimating associated costs; selecting predefined energy pathways; modi- fying pathways to explore effects of alternative energy development strat- egies; and defining control strategies for individual fuel types, economic sectors, emissions control technologies, and subregions or countries. Not only is the model a tool for analyzing air pollution effects and control strategies, it also serves an important educational function by transferring knowledge to a wide regional audience. The intended au- dience for the model includes planners, policymakers, and researchers concerned with energy development and environmental management issues in Asian countries, including professionals working for the gov- ernment, in research organizations, in power plants, and in agricultural, soil research, and educational institutions. This project is part of a continuing effort by the World Bank and other multilateral institutions to work with countries and regions to assess the causes and impacts of regional environmental problems and explore options for ameliorating them. It is hoped that the RAINS-ASIA model will be an important tool in this process and will help Asian countries and the World Bank evaluate the environmental consequences of develop- ment in the power and industrial sectors and adopt environmentally proactive strategies. 1 Acid Rain: An Overview A cross large parts of Asia, air pollution problems are becoming more A and more evident. Rainfall in some countries, including China, Ja- pan, and Thailand, has been measured to be ten times more acidic than unpolluted rain. Increasing evidence of acidification damage to surface waters, soils, and economically important crops is beginning to appear (see box 1). In addition, urban air quality in many areas of the region continues to deteriorate. According to United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates, twelve of the fifteen most-polluted cities in the world are in Asia, and pollution levels regularly exceed World Health Organization (WHO) guideline values by severalfold. In addition to environmental damage, these high pollution levels harm human health and have long-term regional effects on important commercial activities such as agriculture, forestry, and tourism. Current forecasts predict continued rapid economic growth in the region. This growth will bring with it increasing emissions of air pollut- ants, especially sulfur. The total primary energy demand in Asia cur- rently doubles every twelve years (compared with a world average of every twenty-eight years). Approximately 80 percent of energy in Asia is produced by burning fossil fuels, and biomass supplies an additional 15 percent. Coal is expected to continue to be the dominant energy source, with demand projected to increase by 6.5 percent per year, a rate that outpaces regional economic growth. If current trends in economic de- velopment and energy use in Asia continue, emissions of sulfur diox- ide, one of the critical components in acid rain, will more than triple within the next thirty years. Many ecosystems will be unable to con- tinue to absorb these increased levels of pollution without harmful ef- fects, thus creating a potential danger for irreversible environmental damage in many areas. 5 6 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA Box 1. Acid Rain Damage in Asia Bangladesh * Monitoring data from two sites in the Dhaka area show increased acidity in winter rainfall (Ahmad 1991) and large increases in sulfate concen- trations. China * A survey of forest growth in the Sichuan Basin and Guizhou province has indicated that the incidence of forest damage (indicated by rates of tree and foliage growth) is higher in areas with highly acidic rain (Dianwu and Xiaoshan 1992). Areas receiving rainfall with a pH of 4.5 or less also show higher rates of material corrosion in exposure tests. * A study of the southwestem provinces of Sichuan and Guizhou has calculated that approximately two-thirds of the agricultural land in the area received some amount of acid rain (pH value of less than 5.0), with a total of 16 percent of the crop area damaged to some extent by acid rain. A drop in crop yields caused by acid rain is expected to cost between 17 million and 27 million yuan, or about 0.5 to 0.8 percent of the total agricultural output value from the region (Dianwu and Xiaoshan 1992). India * Measurements of rain chemistry show increasing acidity at most moni- toring sites in India (Sridharan and Saksena 1991). Because the soils in the northeastern part of the country are already acidic, they are more prone to ecological damage from increasingly acidic rain. Republic of Korea * Ten years of monitoring data from the Seoul National University show that rainfall is nearly always more acidic than unpolluted rain and of- ten is at least ten times more acidic (pH of 4.2 to 4.4). The most highly polluted rain or snow occurs during winter, when home heating con- tributes to peak sulfur emissions (Hong 1991). Laboratory experiments have shown damaging effects on important plant and tree species at these levels of acidity. * A comparative study of growth rates of pine and oak trees (reported in Hong 1991) in urban and rural areas showed that soil acidity levels in urban areas are up to ten times those of similar rural sites. These urban sites also have higher concentrations of toxic metals such as magne- sium. Growth rates in both areas have declined significantly since 1970. Vietnam * Monitoring data (reported by Gian, Van, and Nihn 1992) show sulfur dioxide concentrations of up to 500 micrograms per cubic meter in some industrial and urban areas. In Ho Chi Minh City, fuel combustion is responsible for 98 percent of the 42,000 tons of sulfur dioxide emitted each year. ACID RAIN: AN OVERVIEW 7 The Acidification Phenomenon Acid rain is the product of chemical reactions between airborne pollution (sulfur and nitrogen compounds) and atmospheric water and oxygen. Once in the atmosphere, sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NO) react with other chemicals to form sulfuric and nitric acids. These sub- stances can stay in the atmosphere for several days and travel hundreds or thousands of kilometers before falling back to the earth's surface as acid rain. This process is more accurately termed "acid deposition," be- cause acidity can travel to the earth's surface in many forms: rain, snow, fog, dew, particles (dry deposition), or aerosol gases. A simplified over- view of the process is shown in figure 1. Although sulfur and nitrogen compounds can be generated by bio- logical processes such as natural soil decomposition or other natural sources such as volcanoes, most sulfur emitted into the atmosphere re- sults from anthropogenic (of human origin) activities. Coal- and oil-fired power-generating stations, domestic heating, biomass burning, various industrial processes, and transportation are all important sources of emis- sions that cause acid deposition. Figure 1. Processes Involved in Acid Deposition Gaseous Particle pollutants pollutants Wet deposition Sources S02 NO, SO Anthropogenic Natural (e.g., volcanoes) RECEPTORS Several hundreds of kilometers 8 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA The documented effects of air pollution and acid deposition include the following: * Major contributions to forest decline, possibly in complex interac- tions with natural stresses * Release of toxic metals such as aluminum that can damage soils, vegetation, and surface waters * Direct damage to crops and vegetation by high air concentrations of pollutants or indirect damage through chemical changes in the soil * Damage to aquatic resources and their ecosystems * Increased rate of erosion of monuments, buildings, and other cul- tural and commercial resources * Direct, adverse effects on human health, especially for sensitive populations with respiratory or cardiovascular problems. Emissions from large point sources of sulfur emissions such as power plants were once considered a local problem. As awareness of the harm- ful effects of these pollutants grew, however, new facilities were built with taller smokestacks, designed to spread the pollution over a larger area. This wide dispersion makes the long-range acidification problem and its possible solutions a national and regional concern. The Integrated Assessment Approach to Acid Deposition To adequately understand an issue as complex as the acidification pro- cess on a continental scale, it is necessary to develop a comprehensive framework that analyzes all the major components of the process to adequately identify links among various sources, processes, and effects and to design effective strategies for ameliorating the problem. This framework must address a variety of often conflicting considerations such as the following: • Future trends in economic growth in various regions * Policy options to meet the resulting increases in energy demand * Emissions of air pollutants, available control options, and costs of reducing them * Geographic dispersion of emissions by atmospheric transport and deposition * Locations and response to increased pollution levels of a variety of sensitive ecosystems (including agricultural crops, forests, surface waters, materials, and human health) * Economic and environmental consequences of implementing emis- sions control strategies. ACID RAIN: AN OVERVIEW 9 Integrated assessment models such as RAINS-ASIA provide insight into these issues by establishing interrelationships and links among various aspects of the acidification process. The model provides analysis and comparison of the costs and benefits of various options to reduce the regional effects of air pollution before they occur and cause irreversible damage. Learning from the European and North American Experience There are striking parallels between the challenges that Asian countries currently face and the development of coordinated international re- sponses to similar environmental threats in Europe and North America. In the late 1960s, marked declines in fish populations were noted in many Scandinavian countries. Scientists concluded that precipitation over these countries was gradually becoming more acidic as a result of sulfur emis- sions in other parts of Europe. Acid rain was also suspected of being a primary cause of soil acidification and the resulting forest dieback in some parts of Central Europe. By the mid-1980s, Germany observed that more than half of its forests showed some effects from air pollution, fur- thering the impetus toward a coordinated international response to the worsening issue. Increasing concerns about air pollution being trans- ported over long distances led to the signing of an international agree- ment in 1979. This agreement committed European and North Ameri- can countries to attempt to limit or reduce their transboundary emissions of air pollutants (see box 2). In North America, the effects of acid deposition on the environment and human health became an issue of increasing public concern during the 1970s. Canada's investigation into the possible causes of acidified lakes and damaged forest areas led to the conclusion that increasing levels of sulfur emissions, primarily from the northeastern United States, combined with the use of tall smokestacks (designed to disperse pollu- tion from the immediate surroundings of large pollution sources), were contributing to this ecosystem damage hundreds-perhaps thousands- of kilometers away. Since the early 1980s, Canada has defined quantita- tive environmental objectives, in terms of target levels of sulfur deposi- tion, aimed at protecting sensitive ecosystems from acidification. In 1985, Canada established a program to reduce sulfur emissions in ecologi- cally sensitive regions in eastern Canada to a maximum of 2.3 million metric tons by 1994. In the 1980s, in response to concerns about possible acidification dam- age to lakes, streams, and forests in the sensitive northeast region, the United States began large-scale research and monitoring programs to study 10 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA Box 2. The Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution and the RAINS-ASIA model The 1979 Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution, the first legally binding international agreement dealing with air pollution on a regional basis, also provided a mechanism for international cooperation on research and monitoring activities. The scope of the convention, estab- lished under the auspices of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN ECE), is broad: its 38 members include most countries of Eastern and Western Europe, the United States, and Canada. The conven- tion provides a unique forum for wide-ranging cooperation on a broad range of air pollution issues. To provide a scientific basis for negotiating additional agreements to limit specific pollutants, the convention established international coop- erative monitoring, research, and assessment activities. As a result of these efforts, protocols to reduce sulfur dioxide (1985), nitrogen oxides (1988), and volatile organic compounds (1991) have already been agreed on in the ECE region. These agreements, however, are based solely on individual countries' voluntary commitments to reduce emissions by a specific per- centage target. No concerted attempt was made to try to maximize the environmental benefits of these emissions reductions. Beg-inning in the early 1980s, an intemational team of scientists came together at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria to begin development of a computer model to analyze the sources and effects of acid deposition in Europe, and possible strategies for its con- trol. This multidisciplinary group developed the RAENs model-an integrated assessment tool that addresses all aspects of the acidification phenomenon, including energy use, emissions, control costs, pollutant transport and depo- sition, and environmental effects. Widespread international acceptance of the RAINS model led to its use as a principal scientific support tool in devel- oping a new protocol to further reduce sulfur emissions in the UN ECE re- gion. The new intemational agreement, signed in Oslo in 1994 by thirty- three countries, is unique in its effects-based strategy. It takes into account the ability of the environrnent to withstand pollution, while assigning each country a different emissions-reduction target. Together with prescribing national emission ceilings, the protocol contains provisions on the joint implementation of emission reductions to make abatement measures more cost-effective. In addition, the protocol contains requirements for the use of Best Available Technology (BAT) in new large combustion plants, gas and oil sulfur content limits, and provisions for exchange of technology. the causes and effects of acid deposition and options for controlling it. The National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program and a five-year, $5 billion Clean Coal Technology Program documented the consequences of and possible solutions to the acid deposition problem. In 1990, the U.S. Congress passed major amendments to its Clean Air Act, mandating a 10- million-ton reduction in sulfur emissions by 2000. In March 1991, the ACID RAIN: AN OVERVIEW 11 United States and Canada signed a bilateral agreement on transboundary air quality issues that establishes specific targets and timetables for re- ducing sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides and improves coordination on a variety of joint research and monitoring programs. The Outlook for Asia Europe and North America have provided a clear lesson: Continued growth of fossil fuel use without any abatement measures will lead to significant environmental damage. Figure 2 compares projected trends in sulfur dioxide emissions in Asia, Europe, and North America. The expected results of international action to reduce sulfur emissions in both Europe and North America are readily apparent because sulfur emissions in both regions are expected to decrease significantly in com- ing years. In contrast, if present energy and environmental policies re- main unchanged, rapid economic development in Asia will lead to an unprecedented increase in sulfur emissions in the region, to a total of more than 110 million tons of sulfur dioxide by 2020. Figure 2. Past and Projected Sulfur Dioxide Emissions for Asia, Europe, and the United States and Canada 100 -------- 80 --- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- ---- ---- - --- - ---- -- -- - a) CL 260--------- o 40 _ - 20 - - - - - 40~ --- ----I- 1 1990 2000 2010 2020 * Europe l United States and Canada * Asia Note: It is assumed that emissions are stabilized in Europe and North America by 2010. Sources: For Europe, Cofala and Schopp (1995). For United States and Canada, National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (1991). For Asia, Reference Scenario from RAINS- ASIA model. 12 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA In light of these disturbing trends, it is vitally important to apply the lessons learned in the West to address the air pollution problems in Asia. Experience in addressing large-scale environmental problems has shown that it is much cheaper to implement measures to prevent environmental hazards than to clean up the pollution once it has occurred. This proactive method of environmental management, using tools such as the RAINS-ASIA model, helps to ensure that the most effective and efficient policies can be identified and implemented. As was the case in Europe and North America, the broad geographic nature of the prob- lem requires national and regional problem solving as a key to develop- ing workable, long-term strategies to reduce or prevent the environmen- tal effects of air pollution. Current Acid Rain-Related Monitoring Activities in Asia Asian countries are now beginning to establish monitoring programs and regulatory measures for acid rain. A network that measures sulfur diox- ide concentrations emerged in Phase I of RAINS-ASIA. This network and another that monitors acid deposition in Asia are described below (see also table 2). Table 2. Summary of Sulfur Dioxide-Monitoring Data from the Passive Sampling Network (monthly averages, January 1994-February 1995, for stations reporting) Number of stations Annual mean S02 concentration Country reporting data (micrograms per cubic meter) Bangladesh 2 6.4 China 5 22.5 Hong Kong, China 1 24.0 India 6 6.5 Indonesia 4 1.2 Korea, Rep. of 3 5.0 Malaysia 4 0.9 Nepal 7 2.7 Taiwan, China 1 1.3 Thailand 5 3.5 Vietnam 2 14.2 Total 40 Note: Not all stations report data. Source: Carmidcael and Amdt (1995). Figure 3. Locations of Passive Sulfur Dioxide Samplers Established in the RAINS-ASIA Project 6/0 7/0 S0° X~ r-(too ----' tl0 L.-. FED. j- D - \ KAZAKSTAN 4g ~ ' ' -OGLA<' / / i0 r- Wt - KY-GY' 'EP'-gMONGOLIA- SBKISANAK-TA 40 -,-r-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4,; ISLAMIC tAFGHANISTAN C H I N A IRAN 1PKSA '1110*1 I N HTNr' C 3, PAKISTAN N5N/ " 1 4 *C 3 *C *PC2I INGA BOGHUTAN,_'-',E OMAN MYANMAR LAO OCEAANN75 /0¸01 ' Macco_1 ' I Arab/on > ~~~~~TI1 D IA. ( wRo 00 0000' 720X +g6ti;000 6 'ot0 ,l 12 M10:0 0 0jlspjo 0 no -7~~~~~~ Ha~~y af ktttTHAILAND ') -HIUIPPINES Source: Hermichaelagl ArndtTA (1 13 4ABoA e 1/0 ' ~~~~~~~ SOILANKA cTT L tEAUDITES /C 1.MALAYSI MW N DI A N CEAN >k 4SWUAPORE";~ NEW Source: Carmichael and Arndt (1995). 14 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA Sulfur Dioxide-Monitoring Network High levels of sulfur dioxide, a principal contributor to acid rain, are being measured at an increasing number of locations. A notable result from Phase I of this project has been the initiation of a network of inex- pensive sulfur dioxide air samplers at forty-three sites in eleven coun- tries to obtain more broadly based monitoring data for the model. Be- cause most existing sulfur dioxide-monitoring stations in the region are based in urban areas, it was necessary to gather more base-level data from rural sites for further model evaluation. The monitoring network is designed to provide information on re- gional, long-term, monthly, and annual average sulfur dioxide concen- trations. The sites selected are situated away from large emission sources and in regions expected to be highly sensitive to acid deposition. The first results from the network are presented in table 2, and the locations of the sites are shown in figure 3. (Note that not all stations are yet op- erational and reporting data.) Acid Deposition-Monitoring Network in East Asia Administrators and scientists from several East Asian countries (China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Mongolia, the Philippines, and Thailand), as well as the Russian Federation, are developing a cooperative initiative under the leadership of the Environment Agency of Japan to establish an Acid Deposition-Monitoring Network in East Asia. Guidelines have been developed for monitoring acid deposition in the East Asia region, with five principal components: (a) establishment of national acid depo- sition monitoring networks; (b) establishment of a center (or centers) for the monitoring network in the region; (c) exchange of data, experience, and information among participating countries; (d) central compilation and analysis of monitoring data; and (e) capacity-building activities. The network is also expected to collaborate with programs such as RAINs- ASIA. Country representatives have met on three occasions to discuss the arrangements for establishing the network. The Fourth Expert Meeting was held in Hiroshima, Japan, from February 4 to February 6, 1997. At this meeting, the participants established technical manuals for moni- toring acid deposition and developed an overall schedule for establish- ing an acid monitoring network in East Asia. 2 Institutional Arrangements for the RAINS-ASIA Program Growing awareness of the magnitude of current and projected air pollution problems in Asia prompted the organization of the first international symposium on "Acid Rain and Emissions in Asia" in 1989. The meeting was organized by the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Argonne National Laboratories, and Resource Management Associates and was held at AIT in Bangkok, Thailand. The symposium was the first in a series designed to bring together experts from Asia, Europe, and North America to assess present and possible future energy use, sulfur emis- sions, and environmental risks from long-range transboundary air pol- lution (Foell and Green 1992; Foell and Sharma 1991). Based on existing evidence of environmental damage in some heavily industrialized areas and the ramifications of the rapid growth predicted in fossil-fuel use throughout Asia during the next thirty years, the meet- ing recommended the following actions: * Establish an intensified monitoring program to assess the current pollution problem in Asia. * Develop a coordinated research effort on the atmospheric trans- port and deposition of pollutants in Asia and their effects on natu- ral and constructed systems. * Initiate an integrative program of assessment and policy analysis to analyze long-term strategies for acid deposition problems on national and regional scales. Participants decided to build on the successful implementation of RAINS in Europe and use it as a tool to analyze long-term trends, strategies, and options for air pollution problems on different geographic scales. The model's integrated method and framework have given it widespread acceptance as a decisionmaking tool. An important aspect in the development of the RAINS model is coopera- tion among various international, regional, and national institutions. The 15 16 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA program was supported by various grants and in-kind contributions. From the beginning of the project, the importance of involving regional experts in the structure, design, and implementation of the model was stressed. To this end, three networks of Asian scientific and research institutions were established to facilitate the collection and review of input data, as- sist in defining realistic future scenarios for the region, and provide ad- vice on the modifications necessary to adapt the RAINS framework to the Asian situation. Close collaboration has been maintained throughout the project with participating institutes in Europe and the United States through workshops and meetings, and there has been continuous com- munication during the model development process. Networks The following networks were established during this project: • Energy and emissions. A major task in Phase I of the project was the establishment of a network of Asian energy research institutions to collaborate in developing regional databases and energy scenarios. With funding from the Asian Development Bank, the Asian Insti- tute of Technology (AIT) in Bangkok was designated as a coordinat- ing center for the network (with national contact persons from twelve countries). AyT was responsible for collecting the necessary data on a national and regional level and establishing long-term ties to principal institutions and potential model users. * Atmospheric transport and deposition. The Center for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in New Delhi, served as the principal hub of communication and activities related to the development of the atmospheric transport and deposition part of the model. Phase I activities related to the center included installa- tion of computer hardware and software to run the RAINS-ASIA model at the center; training of IIT research staff and scientists from China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and Korea in the use of the models; and development of an international network of scientific researchers and other contact persons to provide progress reports and techni- cal consultations concerning the operation of sulfur dioxide moni- toring sites. * Environmental impacts. The Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences in Beijing served as a focal point for the collection of na- tional input data on ecosystem effects. Together with a network of environmental researchers from several Asian nations and Western collaborating institutions, researchers participated in numerous workshops during Phase I of the project to plan and review research methods and results. A geographic information system (GIS) and INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE RAINS-ASIA PROGRAM 17 critical load models were installed at the center, and training in the systems was provided through periodic exchanges of personnel. These activities could be expanded to include other nations and institutions in a future phase of the project. Institutions participating in each of these networks are listed in the Acknowledgments and The Project Team sections at the beginning of this book. Significant efforts have also been devoted to integrating the work of the various groups, including developing links among the com- puter modules, in the design of the model interface, and production of a user's manual. IIASA in Vienna has coordinated training sessions and an- nual conferences to review the progress of the project. In addition, the World Bank has sponsored various coordination and review meetings. 3 The RAINS-ASIA Model he RAINS-ASIA model consists of various modules, each of which Taddresses a different part of the air pollution and acidification pro- cess. A simplified overview of the links among the model's components (or modules) is shown in figure 4. Each of these modules is more fully described in this chapter: * The Regional Energy and Scenario Generator (RESGEN) module esti- mates energy consumption patterns based on socioeconomic and technological assumptions. - The Energy and Emissions (ENEM) module uses these energy sce- narios to calculate sulfur emissions and the costs of selected con- trol strategies. * The Deposition and Critical Loads (DEP) module, which consists of the Atmospheric Transport and Deposition (ATmos) submodule and the Environmental Impact and Critical Loads (IMPACT) submodule, calculates the levels and patterns of sulfur deposition resulting from a given emissions scenario and the ecosystem critical loads and their environmental impacts based on these patterns. To create a practical tool for scenario analysis, the RAINS-ASIA model defines simplified relationships between input data (for example, eco- nomic development in the RESGEN module, annual emissions in the ATMOS module, and deposition in the IMPACT module) and the output variables (for example, annual emissions in the ENEM module, deposition in the ATMOS module, and potential ecosystem damage in the IMPACT module). The model uses these relationships to develop an overall assessment framework, allowing for the comparative analysis of alternative energy and emissions reduction strategies. The RAINS model can answer many policy-relevant questions, includ- ing the following: * How do various economic and development policies affect energy production and consumption patterns and the resulting emissions and deposition levels? 18 THE RAINS-ASIA MODEL 19 Figure 4. Major Components of the RAINS-ASIA Model Resource and Energy Energy Countries, Scenario Generator pathways regions (RESGEN Module) Energy Emission 0S2 control/ (ENEM) Module stratg ies |emissions | Deposition and Critical Atmospheric Loads Assessment Sulfur Sulfur Transport and (DEP) Module transport Deposition (ATMOS) Submodule | Impacton 1 Ecosystems Impact | ecosystems |(IMPACT) Submodule * How do energy policies such as increasing energy efficiency, switch- ing to fuels with lower sulfur content, or implementing emissions control measures affect energy demand and emissions? i How do changes in the spatial distribution of emissions sources change emission and deposition patterns? Scope and Limitations of the Model The region covered by the model ranges from 100 south to 550 north latitude and from 600 to 1500 east longitude, covering the countries of East, South, and Southeast Asia. The model uses 1990 data as a base and calculates future energy, emissions, and environmental parameters through 2020, in ten-year increments. Although the model's geographic scope is broad, it is also detailed, covering a total of ninety-four separate regions in twenty-one countries (see table Al). Twenty-two of these regions are major metropolitan areas, and international sea lanes constitute one region. The model's databases also include information (see appendix for details) on 6 end-use energy consumption sectors, 17 fuel types, 355 large point sources of sulfur diox- ide emissions, and 31 ecosystem types. Although the initial version of the model provides a general view of the acidification problem in Asia, certain limitations are unavoidable. Most notably, the initial implementation focuses mainly on the potential sulfur 20 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA acidification problem in Asia and excludes other important air-pollu- tion-related problems such as urban air quality, global climate change, and tropospheric ozone. Future refinements of the model will address the contributions made by nitrogen oxides and ammonia as well as other pollutant species (carbon dioxide, ozone, particulate matter, and vola- tile organic compounds). The model addresses many facets of the acidification problem, but it restricts itself to the description of the major physical flows of air pollut- ants in the biosphere. Only the soil-based effects of acid rain have been incorporated for now. Thus, the effects on rivers, lakes, materials, and human health will have to be incorporated in a future version of the model. In addition, many economic aspects of regional air pollution prob- lems, such as the potential role of economic instruments for reducing emissions or the economic value of avoiding environmental damage, have not been incorporated into the model. Complex links between re- gional environmental issues and global concerns such as climate change have also not been addressed as yet. The Regional Energy Scenario Generator (RESGEN) Module The RESGEN module estimates present and future energy supply and con- sumption levels based on a variety of socioeconomic and technological assumptions. Given a set of specifications concerning current and fu- ture conditions (using either the extensive socioeconomic and energy demand and supply databases in the model or user-specified alterna- tive assumptions), the model calculates energy scenarios for the period 1990-2020. These energy scenarios can then be used as an input into the RAINS model to calculate sulfur dioxide emissions, deposition, and envi- ronmental effects. The RESGEN module is structured to provide answers to policy- relevant questions such as the following: • What are the effects of changes in population and economic growth on future energy demand? * How do economic and development policies for various economic sectors affect energy production and consumption patterns? Structure The following steps are required to calculate energy consumption levels and patterns for a given scenario: THE RAINS-ASIA MODEL 21 * Assumptions about future socioeconomic information-population and GDP growth rates-for each country are used to calculate total national energy demand, allocated among six economic sectors. * These national energy demand figures are apportioned among na- tional subregions (if any), based on current socioeconomic data and projected trends. * Energy demand for each sector and region is disaggregated into seventeen fuel types based on current fuel use information and pro- jected trends. * National energy supply requirements are calculated based on the results of the energy demand calculations. * Existing and planned power plants, including information on plant size and type(s) of fuel used, are identified. * Remaining national energy demand is apportioned to smaller sources whose regional distribution and fuel(s) used are defined by the model's user. These steps result in a scenario that describes total energy demand by subnational region, economic sector, and fuel type. With RESGEN, a user can select, review, and modify the following criti- cal parameters on the subcountry (regional) level: * Socioeconomic data, including rates of population growth and growth of gross domestic product (broken down into three components: industrial, agricultural, and commercial/other). * Growth rates of energy demand among industrial, transportation, resi- dential, commercial, and agricultural sectors and other uses. Energy supply and transformation systems are subdivided into electricity generation, oil refining, and other industrial operations. * Energy demand per unit of economic activity for each of the six end- use sectors. * Fuel types used. Sulfur dioxide emissions are highly dependent on the type and characteristics of the fuel used; therefore, the model considers seventeen fuel types, including various qualities of coal, other solid fuels, fuel oil, natural gas, renewable sources, hydro- power, and nuclear power (see table A3). * Fuel characteristics such as the sulfur content of various fuels. Two energy-demand scenarios have been developed to describe pos- sible future energy pathways for Asia. These scenarios provide a yard- stick by which to measure the effects of various energy policies and con- trol strategies. The base-case scenario relies on official energy projections from individual countries whenever available. Business-as-usual poli- cies that use historical or expected trends were assumed in areas for which future economic or energy data are incomplete or unavailable. 22 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA The energy-efficiency scenario, in contrast, assumes the introduction of policies to improve energy efficiency and to shift from using high- polluting fuels to using low-sulfur fuels ("fuel substitution"), especially in the power-generation sector. This scenario demonstrates the impor- tance and potential of energy-efficiency and fuel substitution measures to reduce emissions. Principal Results Total energy demand, by fuel type, for the base-case and "energy- efficiency" scenarios is shown in figure 5. In the base-case scenario, en- ergy consumption would increase at an average rate of 4 percent during the thirty-year period from 1990 to 2020 compared with a growth rate of 3.1 percent under the energy-efficiency scenario. Total consumption levels more than triple in the base-case scenario, from a 1990 level of 83.5 exajoules to more than 274 exajoules by 2020. Although the energy-efficiency scenario reflects the widespread ap- plication of measures to increase energy efficiency, energy growth in the region is still forecast to more than double during the same thirty- year period. In the base-case scenario, the relative importance of coal in primary energy production would remain stable at or near 1990 levels of 41 per- cent of total fuel use. The use of natural gas would increase fivefold, reaching a level of 9 percent of total primary energy by the end of the period. Although total levels of biomass fuels remain relatively constant, their share of energy consumption would decrease from 15 percent in 1990 to 8 percent in 2020. Conversely, the energy-efficiency scenario shows a 31 percent reduc- tion in coal usage from base-case levels by 2020. This reduction is a re- sult of the combined effects of improved energy efficiency and fuel sub- stitution in the power-generating sector, reflecting a move away from coal to lower emission fuels such as hydropower, nuclear energy, and natural gas. Energy and Emissions (ENEM) Module The ENEM module of the RAINS-ASIA model uses the information on en- ergy demand, types of fuels used, and location of major emission sources developed by the RESGEN module and estimates the resulting amounts A 'joule" is a standard international unit of energy that is equivalent to 1 watt for 1 second. An exajoule (EJ) is equal to 101n joules, or 1 billion billion joules. THE RAINS-ASIA MODEL 23 Figure 5. Total Energy Demand, by Fuel Type, for the Base-Case and Energy-Efficiency Scenarios Base-Case Scenario 300 -------- --------------------------------------- 250 ---------------------------- --------------- a 200 ----------------------------------------------- . DL 150 - -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ..-.-. 1 00 -- ---- ,,, 50 - _ .... ..... ----.. ..... 1 990 2000 2010 2020 *Coal *Oil *Gas DOS *Ren *Hyd ONuc| Energy Eff iciency Scenario 250 -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 200 ----------------------------------------.------ 1S0 --------------------..----------- - .... a) 'I-~I [, 100 -- - - - - - - - .. .. . a. i5--- -..----... 1990 2000 2010 2020 ECoal HOil *Gas DOS ERen EHyd ONuc 24 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA and patterns of sulfur dioxide emissions and the costs of various control options. The ENEM module contains energy and emissions databases (devel- oped primarily from in-country data sources) covering 94 regions in 21 countries, including 355 individual large point sources such as existing or planned power plants or industrial sites. It allows users to choose future energy scenarios, calculate the resulting emissions levels, and an- swer various policy-related questions such as these: * What will future levels of sulfur emissions be for a given economic or energy scenario? * What control strategies can be used to reduce sulfur emissions, and what are the estimated costs of implementing these controls? * What effect do changes in energy efficiencies have on sulfur emissions? * What environmental improvements would result from the reloca- tion of a large emission source from a sensitive ecological area to a less sensitive region? Although the necessary data were available for some countries from previously published studies, for many countries this information had to be developed from secondary sources. Data on energy use by fuel type and geographic region, the size and location of large point sources, and fuel characteristics (sulfur content and emission factors) for various fuels were compiled by the project team. The model includes emissions data developed specifically for this project from seventeen countries and previously published emissions estimates for six other countries. The network of energy research institutions was instrumental in gathering these data. With the use of this network, the first Asia-wide databases on fuel consumption by region and economic sector, fuel characteris- tics, and emissions control options and costs were created and incorpo- rated into the RAINS-ASIA model. Structure The ENEM module required the creation of a grid-based base-year emis- sions inventory and a review of control technologies (see table A4). The base-year inventory includes all anthropogenic (artificial) sources of sulfur emissions, both from land-based sources and from major interna- tional shipping lanes. Also included are emissions from biomass burn- ing (agricultural and animal wastes and wood used as fuel) and from volcanic eruptions. The base-year emissions inventory developed in Phase I served as a basis for estimating future emissions levels under various energy sce- narios. This process involved data collection, for all regions and large THE RAINS-ASIA MODEL 25 point sources considered in the model, on sulfur content and heating values of fuels and on the fraction of sulfur retained in ash after com- bustion (for solid fuels). Regional or site-specific data on fuel character- istics were used wherever available. In a few cases in which no national data were available, values of similar parameters from the European version of the RAINS model were used (see box 3). These values may be substituted by more suitable Asia-specific data when they become avail- able. A continuing process of review and feedback on data and sources, involving all member institutions in the energy network, was used to improve the quality of the final databases. The locations of 355 large point sources used in the model are shown in figure 6. Box 3. Emissions Control Technologies and Costs With ENEM, the model's user can investigate a number of emissions con- trol options focusing on reducing the sulfur contained in fuel before, dur- ing, or after combustion. The user can select emissions control techniques to be applied to particular large point sources, in specific economic sec- tors, or in certain geographic regions. The following control measures are considered: * Use of low-sulfur hard coal, either from naturally occurring low- sulfur coal types or by some degree of coal washing * Use of low-sulfur heavy fuel oil, either from low-sulfur crude or oil desulfurized during refining * Use of diesel oil (gas oil) with lower sulfur content * Desulfurization during the combustion process (for example, through limestone injection or fluidized bed combustion processes) * Desulfurization of flue gas after combustion. The ENEM module also performs cost calculations for implementing the selected emissions-reduction strategies. The model calculates total life- cycle costs, including investment-related start-up costs (installation, con- struction, and working capital), fixed operating costs (maintenance, taxes, and overhead), and variable operating and maintenance costs (additional labor and waste disposal). The parameters used in the calculations are determined to be either common or specific to a particular country. Com- mon parameters, which apply to all instances of a specific technology, include installation lifetimes, sulfur removal efficiency, and energy and material requirements. Country-specific parameters include items such as interest rates, average plant capacity utilization, boiler and fumace size, and energy and material prices. The module also produces national cost curves that rank the available abatement measures in terms of their overall cost-effectiveness. Because factors such as energy use pattems and technological infrastructure differ greatly among countries in the region, there are large differences in na- tional cost curves. Figure 6. Locations of the 355 Large Point Sources in the RAINS-ASIA Model KAZAK STAN MONGOLIA REP.RD OF - - -~ IRAN -' " 3 K NE FAL-- OMAN >~~~ 1 *I1NDIA *''~ 2S~~ ~ ~ * MYANMAR ~~~~~ (PerIl OCPAN 2~~~~ Sore Aren vand oter (1995)RLPPN THE RAINS-ASIA MODEL 27 Principal Results Total emissions of sulfur dioxide for the base-case, no-control scenario, for each country are shown in table 3. Figure 7 shows the region's an- nual sulfur dioxide emissions in 1990. A detailed analysis of scenario results, including calculations of emis- sions and control costs for a number of different scenarios, can be found in chapter 4. Table 3. Total Emissions of Sulfur Dioxide and the Average Annual Growth Rate of Emissions under the Base-Case, No-Control Scenario Average annual Sulfur dioxide growth rate, emission (kilotons SO2) 1990-2020 Economy 1990 2000 2010 2020 (percent) Bangladesh 118 165 330 525 5.1 Bhutan 2 5 7 12 7.0 Brunei 6 8 13 18 3.6 Cambodia 22 40 75 147 6.5 China 21,908 34,328 47,840 60,688 3.5 Hong Kong, China 140 216 290 378 3.4 India 4,472 6,594 10,931 18,549 4.9 Indonesia 630 1,085 1,868 3,162 5.5 Japan 835 997 1,048 1,120 1.0 Korea, Dem. Rep. 343 586 878 1,345 4.7 Korea, Rep. of 1,640 2,802 4,033 5,537 4.1 Lao PDR 3 5 8 12 4.3 Malaysia 206 242 342 410 2.3 Mongolia 78 95 124 168 2.6 Myanmar 18 25 32 40 2.7 Nepal 122 156 194 247 2.4 Pakistan 614 1,553 3,684 7,527 8.7 Philippines 391 627 1,071 2,037 5.7 Sea lanes 243 310 397 512 2.5 Singapore 191 358 653 1,033 5.8 Sri Lanka 42 132 171 239 6.0 Taiwan, China 500 765 1,086 1,478 3.7 Thailand 1,038 1,901 3,277 4,638 5.1 Vietnam 113 166 333 655 6.0 Total 33,675 53,161 78,685 110,478 4.0 Note: The model considers international sea (shipping) lanes as a separate region. Source: RAINS-ASIA model, version 7.01. Figure 7. Annual Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in Asia, 1990 _ , KAZAKSTAN f n , 4M . > v SA KYRGYZ Source: Carmichael and Arndt (1995). THE RAINS-ASIA MODEL 29 Deposition and Critical Loads Assessment (DEP) Module The DEP module consists of two major components: the ATMOS submodule, which calculates atmospheric transport and deposition patterns for sul- fur dioxide and sulfate, and the IMPACT submodule, which estimates the environmental effects of acid deposition to ecosystems across Asia. The function and structure of each of these submodules are described sepa- rately in the following sections. Atmospheric Transport and Deposition (ATMOS) Submodule The ATMOS submodule analyzes long-range transport and deposition of sulfur in Asia. The module calculates the sulfur deposition levels and patterns that result from various energy and emissions scenarios gener- ated by the RESGEN and ENEM modules. ATMOS combines information on the location and levels of emissions from the other modules with meteo- rological, chemicaL and physical data to calculate the resulting sulfur deposition patterns. ATMOS follows individual parcels of air from a particular source throughout their trajectories-from emission, through atmospheric trans- port and chemical transformation, to deposition. The module incorpo- rates an atmospheric source-receptor relationship, calculating sulfur transport and deposition, across all of Asia on a 10 by 1° grid and in- cludes three separate horizontal layers (surface, boundary, and upper). ATMOS also takes into consideration variations in emission height (that is, it makes adjustments for emissions from tall stacks). The submodule can be run for an entire year for each identified source, calculating the total annual deposition attributable to that source. Simi- larly, when run for all sources and areas, the model calculates the total annual deposition over the entire model region. Thus, ATMOS can be used to answer questions such as these: a How do changes in energy consumption and emissions from a spe- cific area or a single large point source affect levels of acid deposi- tion in other areas? * What sources or areas contribute to sulfur deposition in a given region? Structure The ATMOS submodule uses input data on emission rates, levels, and source locations (from ENEM). It also incorporates meteorological data (including winds, temperature, and precipitation rates) available from international organizations or national sources. Data on emissions supplied by the ENEM 30 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA module comprise both anthropogenic and natural sources, including large point sources, area emissions (subdividedby industrial, domestic, and trans- portation categories), shipping activities (including regional shipping lanes and in-port activities), and active volcanoes. The model uses meteorological data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for approximately 200 stations in the region and precipitation data from the National Center for Atmospheric Research and monitoring sites in Asia. The model provides annual av- erage (wet + dry) sulfate deposition values and monthly average sulfur dioxide concentration values for each 10 by 1° grid cell. Concentration and deposition values are calculated separately for large point and area sources. For dispersed-area sources, the results are aggregated, show- ing each region's contribution to deposition in a particular grid cell. Emissions from each large point source are calculated individually and show the contribution of each large point source to each grid cell. The module takes into account intra-annual variability while estimating the annual average deposition of sulfur. The model allows the user to assess the spread of pollution from an individual source or region and identify the emission sources that con- tribute to sulfur deposition at a particular site. Table 4 shows the results of an analysis of the sources of sulfur deposition in Chongqing, China. Principal Results Figure 8 shows total annual sulfur deposition in Asia for 1990, including contributions from all anthropogenic sources in the model (large point and area sources) and volcanoes. The distribution pattern of sulfur depo- sition closely follows that of sulfur emissions (shown in figure 8). Many areas with high emissions levels (for example, eastern and southern China, Korea, northern Thailand, and eastern India) show high levels of sulfur deposition. Annual precipitation levels also affect depo- sition patterns, as can be seen in areas with high precipitation such as northern India, Nepal, southeastern China, and Southeast Asia. High levels of sulfur deposition are also noted in major shipping lanes. In some areas below 20° north latitude, ship traffic accounts for 10 percent or more of annual sulfur deposition. Model results for shorter periods of time indicate a strong seasonal variation, with large differences observed between the December- February and June-August periods. The effects of rainy seasons are re- flected in the deposition patterns: more than 30 percent of the total wet deposition over the Japan Sea and Indonesia occurs during the three winter months (the winter monsoon period). Conversely, more than 30 percent of the total wet deposition in Southeast Asia and large parts of THE RAINS-ASIA MODEL 31 Table 4. Emission Sources Contributing to Sulfur Deposition in Chongqing, China Contribution of sulfur Region (milligrams per square meter per year) Area sources 10,634 Hebei-Anhui-Henah 11 Shaanxi-Gansu 12 Hubei 34 Hunan 13 Guangxi 19 Sichuan 2,231 Chongqing 6,922 Guizhou 388 Guiyang 173 Yunnan 173 Large point sources 658 Chongqing, LPS4 550 Guizhou, LPS11 44 Sichuan, LPS56 64 Total 11,292 Note: Sources contributing less than 10 milligrams per square meter per year are not included. Source: RAINS-ASIA model, version 7.01. the Indian subcontinent occurs between June and August, the monsoon season in these areas. Another notable result from Phase I of the project has been the initia- fion of a passive sampler network at the forty-three sites in eleven coun- tries described earlier (see figure 3 and table 2). Sample analysis began in early 1994, and monthly and annual mean concentration data are now available for all sites. Although no direct comparisons can yet be made between the network results (for 1994) and model-calculated values (for 1990), the relative spatial distribution of emissions (that is, areas of high and low concentrations) between modeled and measured values agree fairly well. Environmental Impact and Critical Loads (IMPACT) Submodule The IMPACT submodule assesses the sensitivity of various ecosystems (their "critical loads"; see box 4) to acid deposition and compares this information to the deposition data generated by the ATMOS module. This Figure 8. Sulfur Deposition in Asia, 1990 r Source: Carmichael and Arndt (1995). THE RAINS-ASIA MODEL 33 Box 4. What Is a Critical Load? A critical load of an ecosystem is a no-effect level for a pollutant (that is, the level of a substance-acid deposition, for example-that does not cause long-term damage to an ecosystem). Areas that have a limited natural capacity to absorb or neutralize acid rain have a low critical load. Ecosys- tems that are better able to buffer acidity (through different soil chemistry, biological tolerances, or other factors) have a correspondingly higher criti- cal load. Assessing the natural capacity of ecosystems to withstand cur- rent and projected levels of pollution is a method of measuring ecosystem health and can serve as a way to assess the environmental benefits of emissions reductions. process identifies regional ecological sensitivity and indicates which areas are at greatest risk of damage (for example, growth reduction, yield loss, or changes in biodiversity) from present or projected levels of sulfur deposition. By estimating critical loads for various regions and ecosystems and comparing these natural sensitivities to deposition levels, the IMPACT submodule allows users to assess the environmental effects of different energy and emissions scenarios and answer the following questions: * What regions and ecosystems are most sensitive to acid deposition? * Which ecosystems are damaged, and to what extent, in a particular energy scenario? * What are the environmental aspects of a particular emissions con- trol strategy? Structure Two complementary methods are used to estimate critical loads for a variety of ecosystems: the definition of relative sensitivity classes and the steady-state mass balance method. The objective of applying two methodologies is to consider a large number of biogeochemical factors to determine the sensitivity of ecosystems, assess the reliability of each method by comparing the broad geographic distribution of results from each method, and extend the geographic scope of the assessment of eco- system sensitivity to include areas in which data are insufficient to cal- culate critical load values directly. Each of these two methods is described in greater detail below. The relative-sensitivity method uses information on climatic factors, geology, soil characteristics, vegetation type, and land use. These fac- tors are categorized, weighted, and combined to define relative classes of ecosystem sensitivity to acid deposition. This method has been adapted from previous European applications of the relative-sensitivity method. 34 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA The following factors are considered in determining relative ecosys- tem sensitivity: * Climatic factors such as annual average rainfall and temperature, run- off rates, and deposition of base cations that can neutralize acidity * Soil chemistry and mineralogy, including soil pH, texture, geology, and rates of nutrient uptake and weathering * Types of vegetation cover and land use. The steady-state mass balance method determines the maximum level of a substance (sulfur-based acidity in the present model) that will not damage an ecosystem over the long term. In Phase I, critical loads have been calculated for thirty-one ecosystems in the region (see box 5). The maps showing critical loads and areas of excess sulfur deposition can be broken down by ecosystem type, including agriculture, rice paddies (an economically important crop), nonagricultural areas, or all ecosystems. The steady-state mass balance method was used to calculate critical loads in the recent effects-based UN ECE protocol on sulfur emissions re- ductions (UN ECE 1994). This method has also been applied on a national basis in the RAINS-ASIA IMPACT submodule. The steady-state mass balance method was used on a site-specific basis in China, whereas in Japan, many versions of the steady-state mass balance model were implemented and tested on a regional scale. Because there were sufficient data to compute critical loads by the steady-state mass balance method, the relative-sensi- tivity method was used primarily to evaluate the robustness of the critical load distributions. Several simplifying factors have been incorporated into the present version of the IMPACT submodule. Only the indirect environmental ef- fects of sulfur deposition (that is, acidification) have been considered in Box 5. Ecosystems Considered in the RAINS Model Polar or rock desert Interrupted temperate Irrigated other farm- Tundra woods land Cool semidesert/ Dry or highland woods Coastal wetland, cold scrub Mediterranean woodland Coastal wetland, Montane cold scrub Interrupted tropical mangrove or grass woods Coastal wetland and Cool scrub or Subtropical dry forest hinterland grassland Subtropical wet forest Hot scrub or grassland Main taiga Tropical dry forest Succulents and thorn Southern taiga or dry woods Semiarid desert Coniferous forest Tropical wet forest Nonpolar rocky Mixed forest Tropical savanna vegetation Temperate broadleaf General farmland Sand desert forest Irrigated paddy Semidesert Figure 9. Critical Loads for Acidity '066 70- 80i M * FFESDAN _ KA2AKSTAN i * * EKISTAN a W~~~~ ~~ UZ -V>KYGY.. 40o -A 7.2 TU, ~ITN A5ITAU ISLAMIC AFGHANISTANo * REP, OF * * IRAN l 30M OMA~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~A 000 Source: RAINS-ASIA 7.02. Figure 10. Excess Sulfur Deposition above Critical Loads, 1990 40- 1-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NDA OCEA SINGAPiE V '½ PAPU Source: Hettelingh and others (1995). THE RAINS-ASIA MODEL 37 the present method; other direct effects such as damage to vegetation from elevated sulfur dioxide air concentrations are not yet considered in the model. As is the case with all other parts of the RAINS-ASIA model, the IMPACT submodule considers only the role of sulfur in acidification. Although nitrogen also plays an important role in the acidification pro- cess, for the first phase of the project, emphasis was placed on the effects of large-scale sulfur dioxide emissions and deposition. The IMPACT submodule is not a dose-response module. Its results only tell the user where sulfur deposition exceeds carrying capacity. The model does not estimate the effect of that excess, and hence the extent of eco- system damage and economic costs cannot be quantified. Principal Results A comparison of the results of the steady-state mass balance model and the relative-sensitivity method reveals overall compatibility between the two approaches in determining the distribution of sensitive areas. In most areas in which the relative-sensitivity method indicated the likeli- hood of sensitive ecosystems (based on geologic, land use, and climatic data), the steady-state mass balance model also calculated relatively low critical loads. Thus, the reliability of the initial results is improved, al- though large variations in the availability of input data remain. Figure 9 shows the map of critical loads for acidity in Asia. Because a single grid cell can contain numerous combinations of vegetation, soil type, and other factors that influence the critical load, the map shows critical load values that protect 75 percent of all ecosystems in that grid cell. Figure 10 shows the areas in which sulfur deposition in 1990 ex- ceeded the critical load, thus endangering these ecosystems to damage by acidification. 4 Results from the First Phase A number of preliminary analyses have already been carried out us- ing the RAINS-ASIA model. The model provides the first comprehen- sive and integrated analysis of the environmental consequences of con- tinued uncontrolled growth of energy consumption and sulfur emis- sions in Asia. The reference scenario described earlier has been used as a foundation for developing a number of other scenarios that are de- scribed in the following sections. These scenarios investigate the effec- tiveness of different pollution-control strategies. A number of control options were developed, and the resulting costs and environmental ef- fects, including improvements in sulfur emissions, deposition, and over- all effects, were quantified. Base-Case (Reference) Scenario The base-case scenario assumes continuation of present economic and environmental trends with no additional measures to reduce sulfur (see chapter 3). In this scenario, total energy demand would increase at an average rate of 4 percent annually from 1990 to 2020 (figure 6), resulting in a tripling of energy use during this thirty-year period. Coal combustion would continue to be the primary source of sulfur emis- sions, accounting for about 75 percent of total emissions as shown in figure 11. Total emissions would more than triple, from 33.6 million tons in 1990 to more than 110 million tons by 2020. Emissions growth rates would vary widely among countries, as shown in table 3. Emissions levels in Japan are projected to rise only 30 percent under the base-case scenario, whereas 400 to 500 percent increases would be experienced in countries such as India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Emissions from power plants are projected to grow most rapidly as a result of the in- creased use of coal to generate electricity (see figure 12). Another no- table trend is the increased contribution of large point sources to the overall emissions situation. In 1990, the large point sources considered 38 RESULTS FROM THE FIRST PHASE 39 Figure 11. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, by Fuel, under the Reference Scenario 120 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 100 -------------------------------------------------------- 100 6, 80 ---- -- -- -- -- - --- - - - - -- - - --- -- - 460 - - 20 -- - 1990 2000 2010 2020 E Coal [l Oil * Other Source: Amann and Cofala (1995). in the model were estimated to contribute approximately 16 percent of the total sulfur dioxide emissions. In the reference scenario, by 2020 the share of emissions originating from these sources would increase to 25 percent. The sulfur deposition patterns from these increased emissions are shown in figure 13. Large parts of eastern China and most of India would receive be- tween 2 and 5 grams of sulfur per square meter per year. Many industri- alized areas of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand would experience sulfur deposition levels of 5 to 10 grams per square meter per year, whereas local hot spots in some industrialized areas of China would receive about 18 grams of sulfur per square meter every year. As expected, the enormous growth in emissions and deposition under the reference scenario would lead to significantly higher levels of ecosys- tem damage as well. Figure 14 displays the excess sulfur deposition (that is, deposition that exceeds the critical load) in 2020. The map shows that large portions of northern and easL en India, southern and eastern China, parts of northern and central Tha` a ld, and much of the Korean penin- sula will experience sulfur depositi-on levels that exceed the ecosystem critical load in those areas. 40 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA Figure 12. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, by Sector, under the Reference Scenario 120 -----------------------------------------------------------~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 12n 80 .2 60- 0~ 1990 2000 2010 2020 | Conversion El Industry * Domestic * Transport * Power plants Source: Amann and Cofala (1995). Because of the wide variety of ecosystem types and climates encoun- tered in Asia, the complexities of the biogeochemical processes involved in the acidification process, and the lack of monitoring data, it is not presently possible to precisely quantify the environmental damage re- sulting from excess sulfur deposition. That some areas could receive ten times or more sulfur than these ecosystems can tolerate, however, indi- cates the potential for widespread ecosystem injury. Similarly, high levels of sulfur dioxide concentrations are also predicted under the no-control policies assumed in the reference scenario. The grid- based model calculations show large areas, particularly in China and In- dia, near or exceeding WHO guidelines for ambient air quality (figure 15). Urban air quality monitoring data tend to indicate that sulfur dioxide levels in cities are considerably higher than the grid-average values cal- culated by the model. Additional investigation of air quality issues is en- visioned as an important part of further development of the model. Basic Control Technology (BCT) In view of the level of financial resources required to implement sophisti- cated emissions control techniques on a broad scale, it is necessary to con- Figure 13. Sulfur Deposition in 2020 under the Reference Scenario 40-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IRAN OEN 0 J Source: Carmichael and Arndt (1995). Figure 14. Excess Sulfur Deposition above Critical Loads in 2020 under the Reference Scenario Source: AmnnaKAZAKSTAN X ala (199 Source: Amann and Cofala (1995). Figure 15. Ambient Levels of Sulfur Dioxide Concentration in 2020 under the Reference Scenario TURKMENISTAN', AI~ ISLMIC AFHNS OMAN ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ALY _<~~~J Mop poI.c:ofl Aan,I and Cofala (1995).tT Source: Amann and Cofala (1995). 44 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA sider less advanced, and often less costly, solutions. The BCT scenario con- siders more basic, domestically available control technologies, such as lime- stone-injection procedures for power plants, which remove only about 50 percent of the sulfur in fuel but also require lower capital investments than other, more tecnologically advanced, options (see tables 5 and 6). As expected with the use of less-effective emissions control technol- ogy, emissions levels in the three countries taken into account (China, India, and Pakistan) are considerably higher than those projected for other, more stringent, scenarios, such as ACT. Nevertheless, total control costs are roughly the same for the two scenarios, primarily because the RAINS-ASIA model calculates total life-cycle costs for emissions control tech- Table 5. Emissions Levels of Sulfur Dioxide and Control Costs per Country for the BAT, ACT, and BCT Scenarios Control costs So2 emissions (million U.S. dollars (thousand tons) per year) Economy BCT BAT ACT BCT BAT ACT Bangladesh 258 165 258 228 475 228 Bhutan 4 3 4 9 7 9 Brunei 17 15 17 2 15 2 Cambodia 69 22 69 123 487 123 China 38,124 6,672 29,932 12,712 34,230 11,975 Hong Kong, China 68 24 68 255 574 255 India 13,054 5,906 10,522 6,213 17,055 6,328 Indonesia 785 438 785 2,255 6,121 2,255 Japan 1,047 393 1,047 3,458 6,132 3,458 Korea, Dem. Rep. 7,075 75 7,075 1,089 3,087 1,089 Korea, Rep. of 1,469 552 1,469 3,214 3,769 3,214 Lao PDR 7 5 7 6 9 6 Malaysia 246 66 246 163 843 163 Mongolia 81 13 81 56 138 56 Myanmar 37 32 37 5 32 5 Nepal 230 218 230 12 53 12 Pakistan 3,609 606 1,907 3,703 4,333 3,095 Philippines 440 146 440 1,063 1,201 1,063 Sea lanes 307 102 307 222 445 222 Singapore 221 65 221 635 860 635 Sri Lanka 53 37 53 173 222 173 Taiwan, China 827 245 827 1,249 2,999 1,249 Thailand 813 336 813 2,916 6,485 2,916 Vietnam 345 183 345 338 853 338 Total 69,186 16,319 56,760 40,099 90,425 38,869 Note: The model considers international sea (shipping) lanes as separate regions. Source: Amann and Cofala (1995). RESULTS FROM THE FIRST PHASE 45 Table 6. Emissions and Control Costs for the Base-Case Energy Pathway Compared with the Energy-Efficiency Pathway, for Three Different Scenarios Emissions control scenario Energy pathway Nofurther control BCT ACT BAT Emissions (million tons SO) Base case 110.5 62.8 50.4 16.3 Efficiency 80.1 47.1 39.1 12.4 Costs (billions U.S. dollars per year) Base case 3.9 40.1 38.8 90.4 Efficiency 2.0 26.9 25.5 65.6 Source: Amann and Cofala (1995). nologies. Although the controls implemented in the BCT scenario require less up-front capital investment, they have higher operating costs, most notably for handling large amounts of waste material produced. The excess sulfur deposition resulting from the BCT scenario is shown in figure 16. Growth in emissions, particularly from large point sources, leads to large areas receiving excess sulfur deposition in the range of 2 to 5 grams of sulfur per square meter, with Sichuan and Shanghai provinces receiving 10 grams or more of excess sulfur per square meter. These results indicate that, in the long term, emissions control strategies which rely on technolo- gies that remove only moderate amounts of sulfur will not be able to pro- ted important agricultural areas from serious excess deposition. Local Advanced Control Technology (LACT) Although the present version of the model cannot optimize control strategies, the model development team has also conducted some pre- liminary investigations to maximize the cost-effectiveness of emissions- reduction strategies. The team found that overall control costs could be reduced while maintaining the same levels of environmental pro- tection by targeting emissions control measures to sources in environ- mentally sensitive regions. Under the LACT scenario, no additional controls are implemented in relatively low-income countries (such as Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Sri Lanka), whereas emissions from countries with a higher per capita income (such as Indonesia, Japan, Korea, and Thailand) are controlled. This scenario results in emissions levels roughly comparable to those under the BCT method, while costs are reduced by approximately one- third. Figure 17 depicts the excess sulfur deposition pattern under the LACT scenario. Figure 16. Excess Sulfur Deposition above Critical Loads for the BCT Scenario in 2020 ON~~~~~~~W70 r~~~~~~~P TUKEISTNDIN 3 OEN Source: Amann and Cofala (1995). Figure 17. Excess Sulfur Deposition above Critical Loads for the LACT Scenario in 2020 6'W 70- 8w J ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~RUSSIAN?IR KAZAK(STAN - j LyZEKISTAN KRG TURKMENISTAN TJJIT~ ISLAMIC AFHNSIA REP OF AGAIT~ IRAN30 3-N OMAN) Io~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~o 1066 Mop projslion: UiverSal ronsepre Marc b 6O~~~ YM 00 90 10R0L~Il Source: Amann and Cofala (1995)~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~sk 48 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA Best Available Technology (BAT) In contrast to the base-case scenario, which assumes no new measures are taken to control emissions, the BAT scenario investigates the results of imple- menting state-of-the-art pollution control technologies in many sectors. Whereas the reference scenario is a worst-case analysis of the future situ- ation, the BAT method can be seen as a best-case approach. In this scenario, wet flue-gas desulfurization technology is installed for all current and planned large point sources that bum coal or oil. For the residential, com- mercial, and transportation sectors, the use of low-sulfur fuels (coal and oil) is assumed. The RAINS-ASIA model shows that drastic reductions in sulfur dioxide emissions can be achieved through the widespread introduction of ad- vanced control technologies. Under the BAT scenario, sulfur dioxide emis- sions decrease by more than 50 percent in thirty years, from a 1990 level of 33.6 million tons to 16.3 million tons by 2020. The effect on deposition levels and critical loads exceedances is also remarkable. As shown in figure 18, nearly all areas will reach sustainable levels of sulfur deposi- tion (that is, levels that avoid ecosystem damage). Some remaining prob- lem areas still exist, however, including those around the border between Hunan and Jiangxi provinces in China, an area with robust industrial activity situated in a region of sensitive ecosystems. Additional local areas with high exceedances occur in India, Korea, and Thailand. Costs associated with the extensive implementation of stringent con- trol methods are just as striking as the environmental improvements. It is estimated that in 2020, the cost of carrying out the BAT strategy across Asia will be approximately US$90 billion per year, or about 0.6 percent of the region's gross domestic product. Individual countries' burdens would vary with level of economic development and reliance on heavily polluting fossil fuels, ranging from 0.05 of GDP in Myanmar and 0.06 percent for Japan to 1.7 percent for China. Advanced Emission Control Technology (ACT) Because the BAT scenario imposes significant financial burdens for many developing countries in the region, other scenarios were developed to try to define more cost-effective measures to reduce sulfur emissions. With the objective of protecting sensitive ecosystems, it is possible to rank a variety of control techniques in terms of their cost-effectiveness (that is, how much sulfur is reduced for a certain amount of money) and implement only those required to achieve critical loads. Thus, the ACT scenario selects those control methods (described in box 6) that reduce sulfur emissions at the lowest cost. Figure 18. Excess Sulfur Deposition above Critical Loads for the BAT Scenario in 2020 6O0~ 70' 8o- RUJSSIAN ~ FED KAZAKSTAN ( ~- _F-UZEKISTAN KYG W TIJRKMENISTAN rAi( r6L O KORE~A ISLAMIC AFGHANIST4AT g~*4 r NA REPFOF~ IRAN 30- ~~~yof F~~~~~~~~HIOmo~Ns 2 MLDFOE ML EN oSO~~~~~ RS~~~~~ 9O~~~~~ 0QS~~~~~~ ~~~'0~~~~~~O~UINEAI Source: Amann and Cofala (1995). 50 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA Box 6. Measures Considered for Each Control Scenario Base-case (reference) scenario * Japan and Taiwan, China: Current and planned emissions control leg- islation is implemented. * Other countries: No further legislation or policies to decrease sulfur emissions. BCT * China, India, and Pakistan: Domestic technologies with low capital re- quirements (for example, limestone injection) are implemented for all new coal-fired power stations. The domestic and transport sectors use entirely low-sulfur fuels. * Other countries: Controls as in the ACT scenario. LACT * Low-income countries (such as Bangladesh and Cambodia): no con- trols implemented * China, India, and Pakistan: Advanced emissions control measures implemented in certain regions to protect sensitive ecological areas * Other countries: Controls as in ACT scenario BAT * Flue-gas desulfurization technologies (wet limestone scrubbing) are incorporated for all existing and future large power stations that bum coal or oil. * Flue-gas desulfurization technologies (wet limestone scrubbing) are incorporated in all large industrial boilers. * Domestic and transport sectors use low-sulfur fuels (coal, heavy fuel oil, and gas oil). ACT * Flue-gas desulfurization technologies (wet limestone scrubbing) are incorporated for all new power stations. * Flue-gas desulfurization technologies (wet limestone scrubbing) are incorporated in all large industrial boilers in refineries. * Low-sulfur fuels are used for industrial boilers (all liquid fuels and half of all coal consumption). * Existing power stations, small industrial sources, and domestic and transport sectors use entirely low-sulfur fuels. * Japan and Taiwan, China: Current and planned emissions control leg- islation is implemented. The use of this method reduces not only the costs involved in emis- sions control but also the extent of emissions gains. Although sulfur di- oxide emissions increase to more than 50 million tons by 2020, a 50 per- cent increase from 1990 levels, this increase is less than half of the future emissions level of 110 million tons calculated for the no-control refer- ence scenario. RESULTS FROM THE FIRST PHASE 51 The ACT scenario entails considerably lower costs than the BAT strat- egy. Estimated costs total US$39 billion per year compared with the BAT'S US$90 billion cost. National costs again vary between countries, although they are uniformly lower. The pan-Asian cost of implementing this sce- nario drops to 0.25 percent of GDP, a figure roughly equivalent to that of the recent European agreement to reduce sulfur emissions (0.21 percent GDP). The environmental results of the ACT scenario, in terms of excess sulfur deposition, are shown in figure 19. A comparison of emission levels and control costs per country for the BAT, ACT, and BCT scenarios is shown in table 5. Other Emissions Control Options The preceding scenarios are based on the base-case energy pathway that forecasts a tripling of energy demand during the thirty-year period of the model analysis. These scenarios, however, do not consider other nontechnological methods of reducing emissions, such as promoting en- ergy efficiency and using cleaner fuels. As shown in figure 1, such policies can have a dramatic effect on total energy demand. A number of scenarios were reassessed in combination with the energy-efficiency pathway described earlier. Because these structural improvements in the energy system lead to lower fuel consumption, and thus lower sulfur dioxide emissions, the resulting control costs are lower than the comparable strategies that are based on base-case energy projections. Table 6 compares emission levels and control costs of three scenarios for both energy pathways. Energy-efficiency measures are strong and cost-effective options for reducing emissions. These measures often produce secondary positive effects in addition to reducing emissions. Examples of such benefits in- clude replacement of inefficient capital stock and a reduction in overall energy demand that in turn can improve trade balances. Application of the Model To incorporate the model in-country, it would be helpful if each partici- pating country could establish a focus group for RAINS-ASIA. This group may take the form of a national steering committee composed of repre- sentatives from the ministries or agencies of energy, environment, plan- ning, fuel (including petrochemicals), agriculture, and meteorology. Tech- nical working groups focusing on energy and emissions, atmospheric transportation and deposition, and environmental impacts would come under the umbrella of this steering committee. It would be the responsi- bility of these working groups to validate and refine the model by Figure 19. Excess Sulfur Deposition above Critical Loads for the ACT Scenario in 2020 isbA Source: Amann and Cofala (1995). RESULTS FROM THE FIRST PHASE 53 examining conditions specific to the subregion or country and updating the data bases. Validation could be done through case studies for specific subregions or countries as a whole. The steering committee would pro- vide broad guidance for these activities, explore applications of the model in country policy and planning activities, and provide guidance for fu- ture phases of the RAINS-ASIA program. Technical working groups in different Asian countries could form a network and discuss issues formally and informally in national and in- ternational forums. This network would provide a framework to relate to other international scientists and policymakers working on the sub- ject, thus furnishing a vehicle for effective cross-fertilization of ideas. 5 Conclusions and Future Work Ithough many countries have recently started limiting sulfur diox- ide emissions, which will help to contain the regional effect of such emissions, current trends in energy production and consumption in Asia indicate that acidification and air pollution problems are likely to worsen rapidly in the next thirty years. If 1990 trends continue, emissions of sul- fur will more than triple throughout the region, and in many areas, sulfur deposition will grow to five to ten times the current levels. The incidence of harm to natural ecosystems, economically important crops, and hu- man health will increase dramatically. The RAINS-ASIA model has been designed as a forecasting tool to inves- tigate the consequences of a variety of energy development scenarios for Asia. The model builds on the legacy of its European counterpart to provide a spatially detailed, comprehensive analysis of all stages of the acidification phenomenon: energy demand, supply, and production; emissions; atmospheric transport and deposition of acidifying com- pounds; and environmental effects of current and predicted levels of acid deposition. RAINS-ASIA is a powerful tool for assessing the emissions, costs, and environmental consequences of a variety of future energy and envi- ronmental scenarios. In only a few years, enormous amounts of data have been collected and incorporated into the model to gauge the po- tential environmental effects of current and future sulfur dioxide emis- sions in Asia. Preliminary analyses of future scenarios of energy use and sulfur pollution in Asia show that steps can be taken to avoid the most drastic consequences of continued, uncontrolled energy and emissions growth. Although the costs are high, the model can help realize maximum ben- efits from alternative measures. The costs of doing nothing are likely to be much greater in the long term. A fundamental prerequisite for further refinement of the model is feedback from the model's end users: scientists, researchers, and 54 CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK 55 policymakers in the regions. To this end, the widespread dissemination and use of the model is already under way through information and training workshops for in-country managers and policymakers. The RAINs model provides an important opportunity to assess the re- gional acidification impacts and associated costs of various national and regional energy development strategies. Further involvement of in-coun- try policymakers, managers, and scientists is needed to refine the model assumptions and input data; thoroughly test the model assumptions and input data; and analyze, disseminate, and implement model findings. The RAINS-ASIA program is a blossoming effort to understand and deal with regional air pollution issues resulting from Asia's energy consump- tion. Although it has several limitations in its current stage of develop- ment, the model provides a useful tool for looking at future scenarios of energy growth and resulting environmental consequences. The program has built an international network of scientists, policymakers, multilat- eral funding institutions, and other donors with the motivation to help avoid future environmental problems. The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank hope to be catalysts in this process by providing analytical and financial support wherever appropriate and bringing to bear experiences from other countries. Future Modifications of the Model It is envisioned that the process of refining and updating the model will be a continuous one. Priorities for further developing the model are listed in this section. Update the inventory in the Energy and Emissions Module and incorporate more Asia-specific data. To assess and compare various emissions con- trol strategies more accurately, it is important to have complete and up-to-date information on technologies, costs, and applications relevant to the region. In the current version of the model, control costs and technology performance data are based on Western experiences and originate in Europe and North America. An Asia-specific database would include additional analysis of improvements in energy efficiency, low-cost technologies not normally applied in the West, and indigenous fuel resources (for examlple-, T-hai lignite and high-ash Indian coal). Improve meteorology utsed in the transport and deposition module. The model needs to be run for multiple years of meteorological data to pro- vide better estimates of deposition and ambient concentrations. Only by being used for multiple years of data can the model accurately assess interannual variability of air pollution and resulting deposition patterns. 56 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA Also, the scale of deposition requires refinement from a 1° by 10 calcula- tion to finer grid sizes. Include additional pollutants and ecosystems. To obtain a complete view of the entire acidification phenomenon and to better assess urban pollu- tion problems, emissions of nitrogen oxides must be factored into the model. This expansion of the model will require more focus on the trans- portation sector. In addition, more regional information is needed on the potential effects of air pollutants on a variety of other receptors such as aquatic ecosystems, infrastructure (buildings and materials), and human health. Expand critical load strategy and quantification of benefits. In addition to calculating environmental effects in terms of sulfur-based critical loads, an assessment of the additive and synergistic effects among a variety of pollutants would be helpful. An analysis of the relative valuation of cur- rent and future use of natural resources, as well as the direct and delayed effects on the quality of those resources (that is, damage assessment), would also be useful. Such damage assessment allows an evaluation of regional benefits of abatement policies aimed at sustainability. Dynamic model- ing, to determine the temporal aspect of ecosystem acidification and dam- age, would be a main aspect of this strategy. Develop optimization capabilities. The current model operates solely in a scenario analysis mode; that is, it calculates the results in emissions, deposition, and damage based on a set of energy assumptions. An opti- mization routine works essentially in reverse: it uses end points defined in terms of environmental targets (and economic constraints) and calcu- lates the cost-optimal solution, in terms of emissions controls required, to reach these targets. The addition of such optimization capabilities to the model would improve its abilities as a decisionmaking tool. Complete additional analyses. Additional work is needed to address is- sues such as the possible use of economic incentives to achieve emissions reductions and the estimation of the economic costs of acid deposition. Each portion of the model and its databases, from the assumptions con- tained in the energy and emissions scenarios, to atmospheric transport modeling, to the estimation of environmental effects, have an inherent range of uncertainty. A sensitivity analysis to assess and improve the overall reliability of the model would be helpful in interpreting the results. Integrate RESGEN into RAINS. Given that the interface between RESGEN and RAINS iS complex and inefficient, it would be necessary to develop a scenario-generating module as an integral part of RAINS-ASIA. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK 57 Evaluate and validate the model. Evaluation and validation are critical to improving the credibility and applicability of the RAINS-ASIA model. Regional and in-country monitoring programs could generate the data needed for validation. It is essential that such programs be designed to monitor change so that on-the-ground effects of abatement policies and investment measures can be understood. Even as scientific work on vali- dation goes on, the model for policymaking should be applied on the policymaking level through case studies that focus on issues associated with continued growth of energy use and combustion of fossil fuels. All of these issues require continued collaboration, institution building, and exchange of expertise with Asian institutions. Three principal networks for energy and emissions, atmosphere, and environmental impacts have already been established in Phase I. Asian focal centers for each network have already begun the process of building long-term international net- works to develop the model further. Strengthening these existing networks through training, workshops, and distribution of computer equipment and models is a prerequisite to increasing awareness of and interest in the RAINS- ASIA model and its results. In addition, it is important to develop mecha- nisms for technical and financial assistance to support both institutional development and policy and investment actions. RAINS-ASIA Phase II Some of the recommendations made in this chapter have been incorpo- rated in RAINS-ASIA Phase II program, initiated by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank with donor support, to be implemented during 1997-98. Phase II will focus on three areas: e Dissemination and training workshops in Asian countries, includ- ing distribution of the RAINS-ASIA and RESGEN software, in-country train- ing workshops, and financial support for Asian researchers and sci- entists to participate in international conferences i Expansion of the passive sampling program; verification of energy, soil, and vegetation data, including model features for evaluation of direct effects of sulfur dioxide; assessment of model uncertain- ties and interannual meteorological variability; and some improve- ments to software * Creation of a nodal point for the RAINS-ASIA model development in countries that have potential acid rain problems and development of a forum for intercountry dialogue in the Asian region. APPENDIX Database Structure of the RAINS-ASIA Model This appendix contains a map of the subnational regions used in the RAINS-ASIA model, with a key to the regions (table Al), as well as tables showing the economic sectors, fuel types, and control technologies in- cluded in the model. 58 Figure All. Subnational Regions in the RAINS-ASIA Model 6'0 70' 810' 90' 10' RUSA7R 100' FED. G ~~~~20-197 IAIAISTAN ~~~~~~~~MONGOLIA LZ'B ~ 0 ~74 -T4URKMENiSTAN - S-U 0 FOR 0 ISLAMIC 'AFGHANISTAN35'N REF. OF 30' FKTN NEPAL 270 El ~~~~~~~~~ 3BHT 2.j30l OMAN 42 MYANMA 0@'AN-SAMGCT UBR 9 __ ~~~~ ~~~~~~47> 76 LAO 7 20'MBER A-bi- ~~~~~BANGLADESH ED.52 RAINS-SAREINNUMBERS N - Boy of TH LAND 7 SNAM 004'$~~~~~~~~t ~j&~~{ RAINS-SAREINBOUNDARIES B-9.1 '~~~~~~~~[, FIPPFINES0 10- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PACIFIC 10 7' - 0 v' ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~REUNEI- MALDIVESˇ' 0' INDIAN 6 OCEAN w% N "y t AA Mop proocioo: Univorsol Troo-o- MertoolrI'II10 60' ~~~70' 802 0. o0- 60 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA Table Al. Economies and Regions in the RAINS-ASIA Model Region Country Region Number Country code code Region comprises 1 Bangladesh BANG DHAK Dhaka 2 REST The entire nation except DHAK 3 Bhutan BHUT WHOL The entire nation 4 Brunei BRUN WHOL The entire nation 5 Cambodia CAMB WHOL The entire nation 6 China CHIN NEPL "North-Eastern Plain," comprising Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning provinces except SHEN 7 SHEN Shenyang 8 HEHE Anhui, Beijing, Hebei, Henen, and Tianjin provinces except BEIJ and TIAN 9 BEIJ Beijing 10 TIAN Tianjin 11 SHND Shandong province 12 SNHX Shanxi province except TAIY 13 TIAY Taiyuan 14 SHGA Gansu and Shaanxi provinces 15 IMON "Inner Mongolia," comprising Nei Mongol and Ningxia provinces 16 HUBE Hubei province except WUHA 17 WUHA Wuhan 18 HUNA Hunan province 19 JINX Jiangxi province 20 JINU Jiangsu province except SHAN 21 SHAN Shanghai 22 ZHEJ Zhejiang province 23 FUJI Fujian province 24 GUAH Guangdong and Hainan provinces except GUAZ and HONG 25 GUAZ Guangzhou 26 GUAX Guangxi province 27 SICH Sichuan province except CHON 28 CHON Chongqing 29 GUIZ Guizhou province except GUIY 30 GUIY Guiyang 31 YUNN Yunnan province 32 WEST "West," comprising Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Xizang provinces 33 HONG Hong Kong, China 34 TAIW Taiwan province APPENDIX: DATABASE STRUCTURE OF THE RAINS-ASIA MODEL 61 Region Country Region Number Country code code Region comprises 35 India INDI WHIM "Western Himalayas," comprising states of Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir 36 PUNJ State of Punjab; Chandigarh 37 HARY State of Haryana except DELH 38 DELH New Delhi 39 RAJA State of Rajasthan 40 GUJA State of Gujarat 41 UTPR State of Uttar Pradesh 42 MAPR State of Madhya Pradesh 43 BIHA State of Bihar 44 BENG State of West Bengal except CALC 45 CALC Calcutta 46 EHIM "Eastern Himalayas," comprising states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, and Tripura 47 ORIS State of Orissa 48 MAHA State of Maharashtra except BOMB 49 BOMB (Mumbai) Bombay 50 ANPR State of Andhra Pradesh 51 KARN State of Kamataka; Goa 52 MADR Chennai (Madras) 53 TAMI State of Tamil Nadu except MADR 54 KERA State of Kerala 55 Indonesia INDO SUMA Bengkulu, D.I. Aceh, Jambi, Lampung, Riau, Sumatera Barat, Sumatera Seletan, and Sumatera Utara provinces 56 JAVA Bali, D.I. Yogyakarta, D.K.I. Jakarta, Jawa Barat, Jawa Tengah, and Jawa Timur provinces except JAKA 57 JAKA Jakarta (Table continues on thefollowing page.) 62 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA Table Al (continued) Region Country Region Number Country code code Region comprises 58 REST Irian Jaya, Klimantan Barat, Kalimantan Selatan, Kalimantan Tengah, Kalimantan Timur, Maluku, Nusa Tenggara Barat, Nusa Tenggara Timur, Sulawesi Selatan, Sulawesi Tengah, Sulawesi Tenggara, Sulawesi Utara, Timor Timur 59 Japan JAPA CHSH Chugoku and Shikoku districts 60 CHUB Chubu district 61 HOTO Hokkaido andTohoku districts 62 KANT Kanto district 63 KINK Kinki district 64 KYOK Kyushu and Okinawa districts 65 Korea, Dem. KORN WHOL The entire nation People's Rep. of 66 Korea, Rep. of KORS NORT Kangwon, Kyonggi, North Chungchong, and South Chunchong provinces except SEOI 67 SEOI Special cities of Inchon and Seoul 68 SOUT Cheju, North Cholla, North Kyongsang, South Cholla, and South Kyongsang provinces except PUSA 69 PUSA Pusan 70 Laos People's LAOS WHOL The entire nation Dem. Rep. 71 Malaysia MALA PENM "Peninsular Malaysia" comprising states of Johor, Kedah, Kelantan, Melaka, Negri Sembilan, Pahang, Perak, Perlis, Pulau Pinang, Trengganu, and Selangor, except KUAL 72 KUAL Kuala Lumpur 73 SASA States of Sabah and Sarawak 74 Mongolia MONG WHOL The entire nation 75 Nepal NEPA WHOL The entire nation 76 Myanmar MYAN WHOL The entire nation 77 Pakistan PAKI PUNJ Punjab province except LAHO APPENDIX: DATABASE STRUCTURE OF THE RAINS-ASIA MODEL 63 Region Coutntry Region Number Country code code Region comprises 78 LAHO Lahore 79 SIND Sindh province except KARA 80 KARA Karachi 81 NWBA Balochistan and North West Frontier provinces 82 Philippines PHIL LUZO Cordillera Administrative Region, National Capital Region, Region I, Region II, Region III, and Region IV except MANI 83 ALNI Manila 84 BVMI Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao, Region V, Region VI, Region VII, Region VIII, Region IX, Region X, Region XI, and Region XII 85 sea lanes SEAL SEAL Shipping routes on the high seas 86 Singapore SING WHOL The entire nation 87 SriLanka SRIL WHOL The entire nation 88 Thailand THAI NHIG "North Highlands," comprising the North Region 89 NEPL "Northeast Plateau," comprising the Northeast Region 90 CVAL "Central Valley," comprising the Central Region except BANG 91 BANG Bangkok 92 SPEN Southern Peninsula, comprising the South Region 93 Vietnam VIET NORT North Central, Northern Uplands, and Red River Delta planning regions 94 SOUT Central Coast, Central Highlands, Mekong River Delta, and Southeast planning regions Note: The Region numbers correspond to the numbers used on the map. Names in italics are RAINS-ASIA megacities. The model also considers international sea (shipping) lanes as a separate region. 64 RAINS-ASIA: AN ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR ACID DEPOSITION IN ASIA Table A2. Economic Sectors in the RAINS-ASIA Model Sector/subsector Code 1 Fuel production and conversion CON Combustion CON_COMB Losses CON LOSS 2 Power plants, district heating PP Existing wet bottom PP_EX_WB Existing other PP_EX_OTH New PP_NEW 3 Household and other consumers DOM 4 Transport TRA Road transport TRA_RD Cars, motorcycles, light-duty trucks TRA_RD_LD Two-stroke transport TRA_RD_LD2 Four-stroke transport TRA_RD LD4 Heavy-duty vehicles (trucks, buses) TRA_RD_HD Other transport (rail, inland water, and coastal) TRA_OTHER 5 Industry IN Combustion in boilers for electricity and heat IN_BO Other industrial combustion (furnaces) IN_OC Process emission IN_PR Oil refineries IN_PR_REF Coke plants IN_PR_COKE Sinter plants IN_PR_SINT Pig iron (blast furnaces) IN_PR_PIGI Nonferrous metal smelters IN_PR_NFME Sulfuric acid plants IN PRSUAC Nitric acid plants IN_PR_NIAC Cement and lime plants IN_PR_CELI Pulp mills IN_PR_PULP 6 Non-energy use NONEN APPENDIX: DATABASE STRUCTURE OF THE RAINS-ASIA MODEL 65 Table A3. Fuel Types in the RAINS-ASIA Model Ftel type Code 1 Brown coal or lignite, high grade BC1 2 Brown coal or lignite, low grade BC2 3 Hard coal, high quality HC1 4 Hard coal, medium quality HC2 5 Hard coal, low quality HC3 6 Derived coal (coke, briquettes) DC 7 Other solid-low S (biomass, waste, wood) OS1 8 Other solid-high S (includes high S waste) OS2 9 Heavy fuel oil HF 10 Medium distillates (diesel, light fuel oil) MD 11 Light fractions: gasoline, kerosene, napthas, LPG LF 12 Gas (includes other gases) GAS 13 Renewable (solar, wind, small hydro) REN 14 Hydro HYD 15 Nuclear NUC 16 Electricity ELE 17 Heat (steam, hot water) HT Table A4. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Control Technologies in the RAINS-ASIA Model Type of control Code 1 Low-sulfur fuels LSFUEL Low-sulfur coal LSCO Low-sulfur coke LSCK Low-sulfur fuel oil LSHF Low-sulfur medium distillates-stage 1 (0.3 percent sulfur) LSMD1 Low-sulfur medium distillates-stage 2 (0.05 percent sulfur) LSMD2 2 Flue-gas desulfurization FGD Limestone injection LINJ Wet flue-gas desulfurization WFGD Regenerative flue-gas desulfurization RFGD 3 Process/technology emissions S02 Stage 1 control (50 percent efficiency) S02PR1 Stage 2 control (70 percent efficiency) S02PR2 Stage 3 control (80 percent efficiency) S02PR3 Bibliography Ahmad, J. U. 1991. "Acid Rain in Bangladesh." In Wesley K. Foell and D. Sharma, eds., Proceedinigs, Second Annual Workshop on Acid Rain and Emissions in Asia, Nov. 19-22, 1990. Bangkok: Asian Institute of Technology. Amann, Markus, and Janusz Cofala. 1995. "Scenarios of Future Acidification in Asia: Exploratory Calculations." In "RAINS-ASIA Technical Report: The Development of an Integrated Model for Sulfur Deposition." World Bank, Asia Technical Group, Washington, D.C. Amann, Markus, Janusz Cofala, and Leen Hordijk. 1995. "Integrated Assessment." In "RAINS-ASIA Technical Report: The Development of an Integrated Model for Sulfur Deposition." World Bank, Asia Technical Group, Washington, D.C. Carmichael G. R., and R. L. Arndt. 1995. "Long-Range Transport and Deposition of Sulfur in Asia." In "RAINS-ASIA Technical Report: The Development of an Integrated Model for Sulfur Deposition." World Bank, Asia Technical Group, Washington, D.C. Cofala, Janusz, and W. Schopp. 1995. "Assessing Future Acidification in Europe." Note prepared for 15th meeting of the UN ECE Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling, The Hague, May 1995. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Dianwu, Zhao, and Zhang Xiaoshan. 1992. "Acid Rain in Southwestern China." In W. K. Foell and C. Green, eds., Proceedings, Third Annual Workshop on Acid Rain and Emission in Asia, Non. 18-21, 1991. Bangkok: Asian Institute of Technology. Foell, Wesley K., and D. Sharma, eds. 1991. Proceedings, Second Annual Workshop on Acid Rain and Emissions in Asia, Nov. 19-22, 1990. Bangkok: Asian Institute of Technology. Foell, Wesley K., and C. Green, eds. 1992. Proceedings, Third Annual Workshop on Acid Rain and Emissions in Asia, Nov. 18-21, 1991. Bangkok: Asian Institute of Technology. Gian, T. X., N. T. Van, and N. H. Nihn. 1992. "Air Pollution and Acid Rain in Vietnam." In Wesley K. Foell and C. Green, eds., Proceedings, Third Annual Workshop on Acid Rain and Emissions in Asia, Nov. 18-21, 1991. Bangkok: Asian Institute of Technology. Green, C., J. Legler, A. Sarkar, and Wesley Foell. 1995. "Regional Energy Scenario Generation Module." In "RAINS-ASIA Technical Report: The Development of an Integrated Model for Sulfur Deposition." World Bank, Asia Technical Group, Washington, D.C. 66 BIBLIOGRAPHY 67 Hettelingh, J. P., M. Chadwick, H. Sverdrup, and D. Zhao. 1995. "Impact Module." In "RAINS-ASIA Technical Report: The Development of an Integrated Model for Sulfur Deposition." World Bank, Asia Technical Group, Washington, D.C. Hong, M. S. 1991. "Description of Acid Rain Problem in Korea." In Wesley K. Foell and D. Sharma, eds., Proceedings, Second Annual Workshop on Acid Rain anzd Emissions in Asia, Nov. 19-22,1990. Bangkok: Asian Institute of Technology. Hordijk, Leen, Wesley Foell, and Jitendra J. Shah. 1995. "Introduction." In "RAINS- ASIA Technical Report: The Development of an Integrated Model for Sulfur Deposition." World Bank, Asia Technical Group, Washington, D.C. National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program. 1991. 1990 Integrated Assessment Report. Washington, D.C. Sridharan, P. V., and S. Saksena. 1991. "Description of Acid Rain Problem in India." In Wesley K. Foell and D. Sharma, eds., Proceedings, Second Annual Workshop on Acid Rain and Emissions in Asia, Nov. 19-22, 1990. Bangkok: Asian Institute of Technology. Streets, D., Markus Amann, N. Bhatti, Janusz Cofala, and C. Green. 1995. "Emissions and Control." In "RAINS-ASIA Technical Report: The Development of an Integrated Model for Sulfur Deposition." World Bank, Asia Technical Group, Washington, D.C. UN ECE. 1994. Second Sulfur Protocol. Geneva: United Nations. For a copy of the RAINS-ASIA model, please contact: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Attn: Margaret Gottsleben A2631 Laxenburg, Austria Phone: +43 2236 807, ext 474 Fax: +43-2236-71313 Email: gottsleb@iiasa.ac.at Directions in Development Begun in 1994, this series contains short essays, written for a general audience, often to summarize published or forthcoming books or to highlight current development issues. Africa's Management in the 1990s and Beyond: Reconciling Indigenous and Transplanted Institutions Building Human Capital for Better Lives Class Action: Improving School Performance in the Developing World through Better Health and Nutrition Decentralization of Education: Community Financing Decentralization of Education: Demand-Side Financing Decentralization of Education: Legal Issues Decentralization of Education: Politics and Consensus Deep Crises and Reform: What Have We Learned? Early Child Development: Investing in the Future Everyone's Miracle? Revisting Poverty and Inequality in East Asia Financing Health Care in Sub-Saharan Africa through User Fees and Insurance Global Capital Supply and Demand: Is There Enough to Go Around? Implementing Projects for the Poor: What Has Been Learned? 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