DEBT BULLETIN‐ GOVERNMENT OF THE PUNJAB As at 31‐12‐2018 DEBT STOCK Domestic vs External (as at 31.12.2018) Outstanding  Outstanding  % of total Type of Loan (mln PKR)  (mln PKR)  % Growth as at 31.12.2018 30.06.2018 31.12.2018 Domestic Loans                          10,899                            9,775 ‐10% 1% External Loans 681,855                                                 803,412 18% 99% Total                            692,754                            813,187 17% 100% Outstanding  Outstanding  Type of Loan (mln US$)  (mln PKR)  Variable Rate Debt Fixed Rate Debt Avg. Interest Rate 31.12.2018 31.12.2018 Domestic Loans                                  70                            9,775 0% 100% 12.00% External Loans                            5,724                        803,412 22% 78% 1.73% Total                                5,794                            813,187 22% 78% Note:   1‐ Outstanding debt stock as at Dec`18 is exclusive of Guarantees amount awarded to various projects/entities by Government of the Punjab.  Domestic borrowing limit awarded by National Economic Council (NEC) to Punjab is utilized to offer such Guarantees. Total amount of  Guarantees outstanding as at Dec`18 is PKR 75 billion approximately. 2‐ Debt Stock as on 31st Dec`18 has shown a net growth of 17% from Jun`18 outstanding debt stock. 86% of the net growth (i.e. PKR 103  billion) is due to rupee depreciation during last six months, whereas; remaining 14% is attributed to net loan amount received between July`18  to Dec`18. 3‐ Debt stock is reconciled with lender`s debt records mainly, however numbers may change subject to reconciliation with Federal  Government. Currency wise Composition of Debt Stock (as at 31.12.2018) Outstanding Original  Outstanding  Currency % of total Variable  Fixed Currency (million) (million PKR) USD                            4,996 701,294                         86% 19% 81% JPY                          56,209                          72,707 9% 61% 39% Euro                                 29                            4,724 1% 100% RMB                            1,200                          24,526 3% 100% ID                              0.94                               161 0% 100% PKR                            9,775                            9,775 1% 100% Total 813,187                            100% 22% 78% Creditor wise Composition  Sector wise Composition  of outstanding debt stock  of outstanding debt stock (as at 31.12.2018) (as at 31.12.2018) Outstanding  Outstanding  Creditor % of total Creditor % of total debt (million PKR) (million PKR) ADB                         239,594 29% Agriculture & Livestock                  247,107.91 30% IBRD                           79,373 10% Education                        180,555 22% IDA                         274,055 34% Energy                          11,502 1% JICA                           28,043 3% Environment                            1,783 0.2% France                             4,724 1% Governance                          48,808 6% IFAD                             7,832 1% Health                          42,577 5% IDB                               161 0% Industries                            6,733 1% China                         169,630 21% Tourism                               126 0.02% Federal Govt. 9,775                             1% Transport & Communication                        174,630 21% Total 813,187                            100% Urban & Community Development                          99,365 12% Total                           813,187 100% Notes: 1‐ PKR figures have been computed by using the FX rate of 31.12.2018 2‐ Borrowing from Federal Government/domestic is in PKR and all other creditors lend in FX. % of total debt China  30%  21%  ADB  29%  22%  21%  12%  Others  6%  6%  5%  1%  0.2%  1%  0.02%  IBRD  10%  IDA  34%  Lender wise Composition of Debt Stock as on  31.12.2018  Sector wise Composition of Debt Stock as on 31.12.2018  DEBT SERVICING ESTIMATES Debt Servicing for Previous six months Projected Debt Servicing for the period (Jun`18 to Dec`18) (Jan`19 to Jun`19) Creditor Principal Repayment Interest Payment Total Debt Service Principal Repayment Interest Payment Total Debt Service (million PKR) (million PKR) (million PKR) (million PKR) (million PKR) (million PKR) ADB 9,594                              1,831                                                      11,425 8,815                                                 2,021 10,836                            IBRD 2,429                                                             855                          3,284 2,698                                                 1,126                             3,824 IDA 5,442                              1,726                                                       7,168 6,103                                                 1,885                             7,988 JICA                                742                                174                             916                           869                            198                             1,067 France                                149                                  23                             171                           163 24                                                               187 IFAD                                150                                  27                             177                           164 30                                                               194 IDB                                  16                                    2                               18                             16                                 2                                  18 China                                 ‐ 1,230                                                       1,230                            ‐                         1,688                             1,688 Federal Govt.                     1,124.106                          618.15                          1,742 1,124                                                    618                             1,742 Total                               19,646                                 6,486                            26,132                         19,952                             7,592                               27,544 Note: 1‐ LIBOR Rate of 31.12.2018 is considered for projected debt servicing. 2‐ PKR figures have been computed by using the FX rate of 31.12.2018 Redemption Profile of Principal Amount (PKR Billion)  External Domestic Total  100.00  90.00  80.00  49.24    70.00  46.24    45.85    44.89    46.05    41.68    41.45    41.28    40.48    60.00  39.60   Axis Title   50.00  1.01    0.39    0.30    0.22    0.18    40.00  2.25    1.91    1.55    1.62    1.12    30.00  48.23    45.85    45.55    44.68    45.87    20.00  37.35    39.76    39.90    39.66    39.37    10.00  ‐ FY 2018‐19 FY 2019‐20 FY 2020‐21 FY 2021‐22 FY 2022‐23 FY 2023‐24 FY 2024‐25 FY 2025‐26 FY 2026‐27 FY 2027‐28 RISK INDICATORS As on  Risk Indicators 31.12.2018 Outstanding debt as % of Punjab`s GDP 4.30% Interest payment as % of Punjab`s GDP 0.07% Actual Outstanding Debt to Avg. Revenue of Last 3 Financial Years 64.74% Debt Service (Prin+Int) as % of Avg. Revenue of Last 3 Financial Years 4.27% Interest payment as % of Avg. Revenue of Last 3 Financial Years 1.12% Share of External/FX debt 98.80% Refinancing Risk Debt maturing in 1yr (% of total)                 5.00% Avg. Time to Maturity (ATM) External Portfolio (years) 9.7 Avg. Time to Maturity (ATM) Domestic Portfolio (years) 3.2 ATM Total Portfolio (years)              9.58 Interest Rate Risk Fixed rate debt (% of total)                          78.3% ATR (Avg. Time to Refixing) Portfolio (years) 8.0 Debt Refixing in 1yr (% of total)              24.7% Commentary (based on debt stock as on 31.12.18) : Punjab`s debt stock as at close of Dec`18 is 65% of the Average Total Revenue of the last three financial years. With respect to Punjab`s GDP, ratio of outstanding debt stock stands at 4.30%. Redemption Profile (i.e. trend of principal repayments) shows a smooth declining trend till FY2023. A sudden spike/increase in repayments in FY 24 is due to start of loan repayment of Orange line project. After this surge there is a decline agian from FY2025 onward which is due to retirement of six external loans in FY2024. From Risk Indicators perspective, GoPb`s portfolio is largely exposed to FX risk as 99% of the total outstanding debt stock is denominated in foreign currency. Other risk indicators like ATM (Average Time to Maturity) and ATR (Average Time to Re-fixing) are in good shape. ATM of total loan portfolio explains the retirement of total loans portfolio on average after 9.59 years. Whereas; ATR shows that the total loan portfolio will be exposed to changes in interest rate after 08 years approximately. ECONOMIC DATA Amounts in PKR (bln) Description FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 Remarks GDP number is obtained from Pakistan Bureau of  GDP Pakistan 31,963                          34,396                              25,169                              27,443                           29,076                          Statistics for FY2017‐18. Punjab`s GDP                               13,843                                15,094                             15,992                          17,579                            18,918  Estimated @55% of the Pakistan`s GDP General Revenue Receipt                                     815                                     902                             1,108                           1,273                            1,387 Obtained from Civil Accounts