DamUMi of
The World ank
Fo omcaAL USE ON
Isput No. 12032
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
PAKISTON
IDTIGRD KIL FAMG DEVELOPME PROJECT
(CREDIT 1461-PAM)
JUNE 22, 1993
MICROFICHE COPY
Report No. :12032 PAK Type: (PCR)
Title: INTEGRATED HILL FARMING DEVELC
Author: ENGLISH, JOHN
Ext.:31049 Room:T9055 Dept.:OEDD1
Agriculture Operations Division
Country Department III
South Asia Regional Office
This document bas a resticted distibuo and may be sed by recipies only In the perfonmace of
thkir offiial dutis Its contts may not otherwise be dseosed witdout World Bank athoriation.
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
Name of Currency (Abbreviation) = Pakistan Rupee (Rs)
Appraisal Year (FY83) US$1 = Rs12.70
Average FY84-FY91 US$1 = RsI7.80
Completion Year (FY92) US$1 = Rs24.78
ABBREVIATIONS
AJK Azad Jammu Kashmir
DCA Development Credit Agreement
DOA Department of Agriculture
DOAH Department of Animal Husbandry
ERR Economic Rate of Return
FA Field Assistant
FD Forestry Department
GOAJK Govemment of Azad Jammu Kashmir
GOP Govemment of Pakistan
HFTDP Hill Farming Technical Development Project
IFAD Intemational Fund for Agricultural Development
IHFDP Integrated Hill Farming Development Project
LDC Livestock Development Center
LPG Uquid Petroleum Gas
PCR Project Completion Report
PCU Project Coordination Unit
SAR Staff Appraisal Report
SMS Subject Matter Specialist
T&V Training and Visit
UNDP United Nations Development Program
FOR Ox CIAL US r ONLY
THE WORLD BANK
Washinton. D.C. 20433
U.S.A.
Offlc of DIr.oorwG
Opbwatl Evalueton
June 22, 1993
MpO ~~TO_ TXB EXECUTIE &AI= RMDN
SUBIECT.: Project Completion Report on Pakistan
Intearated Hill Farmng Deveopment Prolect (Credit 146 1-PA
Attched Is the Project Completion Report on Pakistan - integrated Hill Farming
Development Project (Credit 1461-PAK) prepared by the South Asia Regional Office. Part I was
prepared by the Borrower. It bring out relevant issues with respect to the need for flexibility in the
application of Bank policies and procedures (e.g., re: consultant selection and procurement) for
projecs of this kind.
The project was the first large ernally asisted project In Azad Jammu and Kashmir.
I beneitd from strong Govemnment commiment. This led to the assignment of highly quaified
staf, and to the provision of adequate budgetary resources. Discomfort with some Bank procedures
led to initi delays, but when the project was dosed after an extension of two years, most of the
physical target were achieved or substaially exceeded. Ihe project was implemented by exist
line agencies in a compact and easily accessible area. The instiutional development impact is rated as
parti since issues related to subsidy reduction and private sector involvement were not taclded
concusively. The overall project outcome is rated as satisfctoy.
At project dosing, production of most of the targeted products was close to appraisal
projections. About half of this increase is ascribed to improved general economic conditions. The
re-estimated economic rate of return is 14 percent. Sustainability is likely, although the natural frest
and hfll range management objectives of the project proved more complext expetd and eluded
effcive treatment.
The completion report provides an adequate account of project implementation. An
audi is planned.
Attachment
This domnt has a reted distbon and may be used by dpie only i the pweforma of
their offica duties. Its conters may not othewis be disclosed wihout Word Sank authoratio
FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY
PROJECT COMPLEnON REPORT
PAKISTAN
INTEGRATED HILL FARMING DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
(Cr. 1461-PAK)
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE .i
EVALUATION SUMMARY . . .iii
PART I ...
1. ProiectIdentity ..
2. B1ckground...
3. Project Obects and Desciption ..2
4. ProjectDesignand Orgnltun.on..3
5. Poet- I.mpenmentl.on.. 4
6. Project Resuls ..7
7. ProjectSustenablrdy . . .9
8. Bank Perfonarice . ..10
. Bonrower Performance ..10
10. Projec Rehationshp . . .10
11. CnsulngSewvlcsand Pro.ueme. . .. 10
12. Project Documentn Da ..... . .11
PART11 ...12
PART III ...15
Statstlculntornmaon . ...15
1. RelatedBank Loamand/orCredts. ..15
This document ha a restrictod disbution and may be used by recipients only in the performance
of their oMcil dutis. Its contents may not othewibe be diclosed without Worid Bank authorization.
2. PE8KS -nmeabbe .......................................... 15
3. CredkDlsbursene ......................................... 16
4. Project ilm enon ........................................ 17
5. Project Costs and Finandng ............................. . 18
A. Proec Costs .................. ........ 18
B. Prooet Fnancing ... ....................................... 19
6. Project Resuks ................. 20
A. Direct Benefts ................. 20
B. Economicmlcrpact ........... . 20
C. Finanial Impact ................. 21
D. Sttdies ................. 22
7. StatusofCovenwrt ................. 22
S. use of Bank Resources ................. 25
A. Staff Inputs .................. 25
B. Missisnss i ons...... . . ......... ....... 26
FIGURE
1. Pbnned (SAR) and Actual Project Achievements
ANNEX TABLES
1. FInancial and Economic Plcs
2. Import Parity Price for Selected Commodities
3. Eoonomic Price for Fuewood
4. Land Use and Cropping Pattms
5. Crop, Lestock and Fuewod YiNds
6. Per Hectare Costs and Returs
7. Ina Analsis of Farm Models (1992 Prices)
8. Adopllon Rates and Ara Under Improved Cropping
9. Economic Benefits from Crop and Livestock Developnent
10. Projected Output and Ecnomic Value of Fuewood
11. Exchge Rates and Infltion Rates
12. Yearvse Roject Costs in Current and Constant Prices
13. Yearwlse Project Costs In Constant (1992) Economic Prices
14. Econonic Benefts and Costs
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
PAKISTAN
INTEGRATED HILL FARMING DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
(Credit 1461-PAK)
PREFACE
This is the Project Completion Report (PCR) for the Integratd Hill Farming
Development Project for which Cr. 1461-PAK in the amount of SDR 20.1 million was
approved on April 17, 1984. The credit was dosed on March 31, 1992, two years latr
thian originally expected. The credit amount was not fully disbursed; SDR 4.0 million was
cancelled on June 27, 1991. The last disbursement was made on September 22, 1992,
and a further SDR 2.4 million remained unspent at the time of project dosing was
cancelled as of that date.
Parts I and III of this PCR were prepared by a mission"1 from the FAO/World
Bank Cooperative Program which visited Pakistan in July 1992. The PCR is bC sed on a
review of the Staff Appraisal Report (No.4773-PAK) dated March 26, 1984; IDA
supervsin reports and project files; field visits to the project area; and discussions wfth
project staff F the Govemment of Azad Jammu Kashmir. Part II was prepared by the
Borrower.
t/ CoWlslhV of Mewo Daud Khn (wwoist misslon blade and D. Ivory (agnwK conutant)
ill
PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT
PAKISTAN
INTEGRATED HILL FARMING DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
(Credt 1461-PAK)
EVALUATION SUMMARY
Obldctves: The overall aim of tte project was to improve people's welfare and
conserve the environment of Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK) which has been under severe
pressure from the growing human 3nd liestoc population. The project supported
agriculure, forestry, ihvestock and road consbucion in a project area of 113,000 ha
inhabited by 47,000 households. The total project cost was estirre at Rs344.4 million
(US$26.5 migion) and IDA provided a credit of SDR20.1 million to cover about 80% of
expendfdures.
ImplementatIon Experience: Although the project got off to slow sta and
dosed on March 30, 1992, two years behind schedule, most physicl tgets were
achied or exceeded (para 5.2). In local currency, actu expenditures were 40% above
SAR estimates but because of the devaluation of the Rupee against the SDR only 66%
of the credit was utilsed. The good implementation perfomce was due to a strong
commitment to the project by GOAJK; selecton of a small, compact, easily accessible
project area near the capiW city; and a good team of senior managers. However, the line
departments failed to integrate their activities at lcal level, there was no community
partcipation, the livestock production acvitbes were weak and most project staff were
primarily concerned with raising production and incomes rather than developing
nsitions, conserving the environment and bringing about a more sustinable production
system (para 5.5).
Result: Over the project period, about B0% of farmers have adopted Improved
tehnologies and have inreasd output and inoomes. This Is partly due to the project,
which provided advice, demonstation, Inputs, free anirmal health servcs and subsidised
planting of privte and communal land, and parwtly due to market conditions which
provided strong incentv to raise production of maize, milk and fuewood. me building
and upgrading of roads resulted In a tremendous increase In both passenr and goods
trafc and helped bring about mary changes in the area including increased response to
market opportunities (para 6.2). The project also deveoped and refined improved
technical and management packages in agriulture, fuelwood plantaon and animal
health, which are replicable In other parts of AJK The pmject failed to address the
problem of stabilization and improvement of upper waersheds, In partcular upland
pastres and natural forests, and these areas continue to deteriorate rapidly. The re-
estimated economic rate of return of the project is 14% compared to 22% In the SAR.
IV
The reduction Is largely due to lower than anticipated production of livestock products
and tuetwood (pra 6.5).
Sustlnabillty: Project sustainablitty Is treatened by budgetary difficultes In
mseeng the cost of the large numbers of Incremental staff, adequately maintaining
facilities constructed under the project and In continued subsidisation of animal health
sercs and forest and fruit seedlings (para 7.1).
Lssons of Experlence: Lessons for the design and implemention of oter
rural development projects are summarised below:
The desgn of area development projects needs to distinguish between
areas/activiies where the market mechaism could bring about an efficient
allocation of resources (utilsation of privae lands and on-farm production) and
where it cannot do so because of market failures or externalitis (utiuisaon of
natural forests and rangelands). In the former case, prvate sector Involvement
should be maximised while In the tter case there is a need to develop a
package of measures Including use of Govemment funds, changes In legisaion
arifying property rights, and greater involvement of the community. Increases
In production and Incomes are a necessa,y part of bringing about more
sustainable production systems but are not sufficient by -hemselves.
Suciul mplmention is facilated by non-bureaucratic managemet good
access to te project area, proximiy to the main centre of decnion making, the
exience of a core team of experienod technical and managerial staf, and a
favourable market environment
Integration between different departments/agencies is difficuit but necessary and
would be facilitated by the close involvement ot local communities in planning
and Implementation. In an area where soil and water conservation are a major
issue, communiy involvement should be on the basis of sub-watersheds.
Appropriat technic packages mWt be available before the start of a project
During the course of project implementaion these packages should be refined
and new packages developed through adaptve research but i Is over-ambitious
to try to both develop ma Introduce new technologies within the project period.
A more sustainable approach to rural development needs to be developed and
essetial elements of this should Include Involvement of local communities'
organisations; ful cost pricing for services such as seedlings and animal health;
and greatr participation of the prvate sector.
The T&V system of extension needs to be modified to local circumstances and
placement of large number of FAs does not necessarily Improve the
v
disseminaton of new technologies. The use of a smaller number of weil trained
technical staff is likely to be far more cost effectve.
Road design in geologically fgile areas should incorporate featres and
mecanical structures which minimise environmental damage and reduce
maintenance costs. In poor, Isolated areas Oke AJK, improvements in road
communications are a prerequisite to raising incomes and the major benefit of
roads is an increase in traffic and better integration with the rest of the economy.
PROJECT COMPLETnON REPORT
PAKISTAN
INTEGRATED HILL FARMING DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
(Cr. 1461-PAK)
PART I
1. Project IdenUty
Project Name Integrated Hill Farming Development Project
Credit No. 1461-PAK
RVP Unit South Asia Region
Country Pakistan
Sector . Agriculure
Sub-sector Rural Development (Agriculture, Forestry, Livstock and
Rural Roads)
2. Background
2.1 Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK) Is located to the north east of Pakistan and Is
mostly made up of hilly and mountainous areas with narrow valleys. The area includes
the upper watersheds of the Neelum and Jhelum rivers which are important sources of
irrgation war to Pakistan. Off-farm Income opportunities In AJK are limited and
agricultu, along wih remitances from migrant workers, are the mainsty of the
economy. Farm production of food, fodder and fueiwood have not been keeping up with
demand fron a rising human and livestock population. Food deficts are largely met by
imports from Paklstan but there has been growing and unsustainable pressure on the
fragile hM environrment paricularly as a source of fodder and fuewood, and this has been
compounded by poor management of the natural coniferous forest and excessive
commercial logging. The Government of AJK (GOAJK) has very limited fiscal resources
and relies on Pakistan for meeting most of its developmental and non-developmental
expenses. Half of the GOAJK`s total income Is royalties from logging.
2.2 The major objectives of GOAJK!s development policy are to raise peoples'
incomes and lMng standards, develop commercial agriculture and small scale Industry,
and conserve the environment. To achieve this the Government has been relying on a
series of extenally assisted area development projects. Between 1977 and 1984 IDA
provided a credit of US$3 million to Implement the Hill Farming Technical Development
Project (HFrDP) which aimed at developing an appropriate package of measures for hil
area development In AJ( This was followed by the Integrated HM Farming Development
Project (IHFDP) which covered two of the five districts In the State; an IFAD funded
projct In the north-eastern Neelum Valley; a proposed IDA funded Environmental Project
2
In the Bhlmber watershed; and an UNDP project In the Sukear watershed. The GOAJK
has also requested IDA assistanc for a IHFOP 11 project to cater for areas not covered
by other proJects. Recently there have been efforts by GOAJK to Implement a programme
based approach to coordinate the different area-based projects.
3. Proje ObjecUves and Descripton
3.1 Projet Objectives: The overall aim of the project was to irnprove peopes'
welare and conserve AJK's environment. This was to be achieved by creasing
igrlcultural product and introducing farm fodder production; fostering tree plant on
privat and public lnds In order to Increase fuetwood supplies; reducing animal numbers
and increasing their product; and improving communications in the project area.
3.2 Project Desption: The project was designed to cover 113,000 ha in two
districts - Muzafarabad and Bagh (previously Poonch). This area was inhabited by
47,000 househoWs. The project was to undertake the following actives over a five year
period:
increase food (maize/wheat) and fodder crop production through the provision
of Inputs and support services;
develop 1,380 ha of apple orchards through the provision of grafted seedlings
and support services;
rengthen Department of Agriculture's (DOA) extension and input disibuon
sevices through the provision of infastucture, vehicles, equipment and
financing of operating costs;
reforest 5,680 ha in demarcated forsts; plant 3,800 ha of communal, state and
private hill areas for fuelwood; and distribute 12 million seedlings to farmers;
costruct soil corwvation works, mainly consisting of check dams;
establish a forest research programme and a Forest Seed Centre to procure,
prcess and distibute forest tr seeds;
strengthen the Department of Animal Husbandry's (DOAH) animal heaMl service
through provision of medicines, vaccines and veterinary equipment and esblish
a Uvestock Development Centre (LDC);
constuc and maintain 117 km of feeder roads;
support implementing departments, through provision of additional staff,
vehicles, equipment housing and technical assistance;
3
set up a Project Coordination Unit (PCU) and strengthen the Land Use Planning
Unit; and
provide funds to carry out studies and experimental work.
3.3 ProJect Cost and Flnancing: The project was estimated to cost Rs344.4 million
(US$28.5 million) of which the IDA credit was to cover 81% of all costs net of duties and
taxes. There were no co-financiers involved in the project.
4. Project Deslgn and Organizaton
4.1 Project Strategy and Scope: The project followed on the HFTDP and benefited
from its experience, especially in defining appropriate technical packages, streamlining
implementMtion arrangements and formulating a aHilI Management Strategy" which
provided the conceptual base for the project This strategy proposed a series of
integrated and sequenced actions aimed at firsty, reducing the growing pressure on the
hillsides by increasing production of food, fodder and fuelwood fom farm and waste
lands; seondly, demarcabng different land areas for commercial forests, fuelwood
plantations, conservation works and grazing; and lasty, undertaking planting and
conservation programmes for forest and grazing areas. Although the hill management
strategy was accepted by the Borrower and may have been understood by some of the
senior mamagement, most of the technical and field staff perceived an Increase In
-roduction and Incomes as the final objective of the project rather than an essential first
step to halt environmental degradation and bring about a more sustainable production
system. The project covered Fe main rural actvies (agricuiture, livestock and forestry)
as well as road constrution. However, given GOAlJls limited administrative ability and
the lack of experience of working with foreign donors, the project was limited to a few well
specified acvities, and restricted to a small area around the capital, Muzaffarabad.
4.2 Project Concept and Desgn of Components: The project was generally well
prepared but with hindsight a number of weaknesses are apparent:
The project design did not systematically analyze extemalities and market
failures and define a ciear role for Government within this context This led to
an over-Wallocation of Government staff and resources (including subsidies) in
private and communal lands and insufficient reliance on Incentives and the
market mechanism. In contrast, in the severely degraded, publicly owned
pasture and forest lands, which make up the upper watersheds, there was an
under-allocation of resources and not enough thought was given to developing
an appropriate mix of financial, technical, management and legislative
interventions.
4
- The pjet design relied on an excessively "top down" approach with litte
involement from oca communities and the private sector In planning and
project implementation, and insufficient provision of technical training for farmers.
- There was an excessive use of Govemment resources which undermined the
replicabiliky and sustainability of project interventions. Under the project a total
of 630 new staff were recruied, equivalent to one Incremental staff per 80 farm
families or per 2 km2 of the prolect area.
- There were some actves for wnich a suitable technical package was not
available at the start of the project. Natural forest and rangeland development
could not be adequately addressed as there was a lack of knowledge about
suitable intentions. other serious lacuna was the absence of interventions,
apart from Improved health services, to raise livestock productvi or address
the problems of the transhumants who graze large numbers of sheep and goat
on the highland pastures. The project made provisions to develop new
interventions to address these problems, but these did not succeed (para 5.6).
4.3 In the context of AJK, the project successfully Implemented a number of
nnovations, Uke the introduction of the unified extension system; and cost sharing
agreements whereby the beneficiaries of forestry plantaton and the Forestry Department
(FD) undertook to share the wood exred from plnaons on private and communal
lands. In retrospect the design features which most contributed to project success were:
the small project area and the limited number of activites; the management system which
regld on a good team (para 5.4); the introduction of legal agreements between FD and
plantation bene ries, which helped overcome people's hesiaon in allowing FD to plant
their land (para 5.2); the introduction of strategic vaccination and deworming campaigns
flor animals which helped contain mortalities; and the avalaUlity of improved technologies
for raising productivity of maize and fodder crops.
5 Projet ImpmenWton
5.1 Credit eveness and Project Star-up: The credit was approved in April
1984 but only became effective on January 30, 1985. This gap of over nine months was
due to delays by Government in appointing the project coordinator, arranging counterpart
funding and approving the final projet document
5.2 Achievement of Physical Targets: Project acties in the first two years were
constrained by delays In recruitment of staff, acquisition of land and hesitaton by farmers
5
to refores feir lands'. The projet was extended tvioe and finally dosed on March
30, 1992, two years behind schedule. Despite deays, most of the physical targets wer
achieved or substntially exceeded (Figure 1 and Table 4, Part l1l). In agriculure, the
extension service was strengthened by fully staffing 13 extension circles and 90 extnsion
centres; apple nurseries were improved and expanded; seven new ferilizer stores with
a capaciy of 900 tons were constructed; and 435 farmers were contracted to produce
certified seed for maize. Moreover, over 3,500 farm demonsaions were undertaken by
the Field Assistats (FAs). In forestry, plantations of fuelwood/fodder species along with
conifers were established on 15,500 ha (160% of target), 13 million seedlings were sold
to farmers for plnting around their fields and houses, and a new Forest Seed Centre
built Within the overall forestry targets there was a reallocation frm planting In
demarcated forests to planting in community/private lands. This reflected higher demand
from farmers who realised that there was going to be no reduction of their property rights
as a result of FD plantings and that the cost sharing arrangement proposed, where FD
would cover all planting and watching costs In return for 25% of timber, was highly
favourable. A more equitable cost sharing arrangement might have resuibed in a better
mix between plantings in demarcated forests and private lnds. In livestock, the LDC was
completd and made operational and the animal health service was provkded medicines,
two new hospitals and 13 veterinary centes and eight existing hospitals were upgraded.
During supervison it was agreed that the roads component would be substily
expanded and eventlly this became the lrest component, accounting for 36% of total
costs, as opposed to the 14% expet at appraisal. The project also created a unified
extension seMce based on the Training and Visit (T&V) system, privatised fertilizer and
pesicides distribution, and introduced subject matter specialists (SMSs) for development
of extension messages and training. SM& also undertook adaptive research in food and
forage crops (variet screening, fertlizer requirements, planting design and seeding rates,
and disease and Insect control and in horticultural crops (improved nursery management,
seedling production, pruning techniques and fertilizer requirements). In forestry, adaptive
research was mainly concemed with Improving seedling production, field tias to assess
growth and survival, and effects of various engineering and biological measures on and
stabilization.
5.3 Project Costs and Disbursements: Project expenditures lagged considerably
behind SAR estimates and in the first two years accounted for only 8% of the total, as
compared to te SAR estimate of 38%. Totl costs at the end of the project eceeded
the SAR estimate by 40% In Rupee terms mosty because of higher physical achivements
but ceached only 90% of the Dollar target due to the devaluation of the Rupee.
Disbursements also fell behind SAR targets due to the delays In proJec effectiveness, the
slow start of project works and the devaluation of the Rupee. At the time of the closure
of the project only 68% of the credit of SDR20.1 million was utilised.
Mot communwal (Shamt) lands have been dhded and annxed to private hddings This has not
been lgaly rwognWd and hence the hesiaon to let Forszy DeparTent undertake any actvitIe
In hse areas.
6
5.4 Factors Affecting Project Impl on: rhe IHFDP was the first big
extemally assisted project in AJK and efforts were made at every level to make t
successful. This included assignment of the best available staff and strong commitent
on the part of the Government and project management. In addition, easy access to the
project ares and its proxdmity to Muaad meant that senior management In the line
agencies could easily monitor project actviies, that recruitmnt and placement of
technical staff was not a problem, and that the project received support from a number
of highly placed representatives who came trom the area. The project management team
was also able to establish a non-bureaucratc decision making system and a simple but
reasonably effective monitoring system for assessing physical achievements In forestry
and animal health. The project also benefited from Fe technical and management team
built up under the HFTDP, most of which formed the core implementation team for the
IHFDP. Technical assistance provided under the project helped turther refine and improve
technical packages available at the start of project implementaion.
5.5 Weakness In Project Implementaton: At appraisal it was envisaged hat all
line departnents were to act in an integrated and coordinated way with the Land Use
Planning Secion playing a central role. This integration and coordination was not
achieved and the main reason was the inappropriate institutional framework and In
particular the failure to generate a demand for integration through the involvement of local
communities In projct planning and ImplemeInttion. Other factors were the greater
importance given by management to the achievement of physical targets as opposed to
institutional development; traditional inter-departmental rivalries in the field which could
not be overcome by the appointment of a single Secretary responsible for agriculture,
livestock and forestry; and the weakness of the DOAH, particularly its production wing.
5.8 In agriculture, the main weakness was that the FA, one for each 500 farm
fambles, were not sutfitenty qualified or trained to effectively carry messages to the
farmers, modify messages according to local needs and conditons, and provide feedback
to the SMSs for carrying out adapfive research and preparing extension messages. The
use of a smaller number of weU trained technical staff would have been more cost
effective. Also the SMSs for livestock and forestry did not work effectvely with the
concemed line departments to develop and refine extension messages. The seed supply
system also faced a number of problems. The DOA was unable to meet the full demand
of growers for seed of crops such as oats while in the case of maize, contract growers
often sold seed to other farmers and commercial agents rather than to the department
as the DOA's price was not competifive. In the case of apples, in the initial years of the
project there was an over reliance on a single variety which led to lack of pollinators and
sterility. The prvatisation of pestcides has proved dfficult The remoteness of many
frms In the project area, the low levels of demand and the requirement for special
transport and handling facilities have meant that in many cases farmers have no access
to supplies. In the case of livestock, vaccination against Newcastle Disease In pouitry
was sometimes rendered ineffective due to problems in maintaining the cold chain for the
vaccine. The esblishment of the LDC, which was to play a pivotal role in desgnirng a set
7
of suitable Inteventions to Improve animal husbandry, was much delayed and was
completed only towards the end of the project. The research programme for the LDC
appeared to overemphasise breed Improvement rather than better utflisation of feed
resources and evaluation of new fodder crops. The project also Ignored the transhumant
popultion who regularly visit the project area with large flocks of sheep and goats and
are a maJor user of forest and grazing resources.
5.7 In foresty lile was done to improve natural pastures and grazing areas In
public and communal lands. There was also a heavy reliance on a single speies
(Robinia) which accounts for 60-70% of all the planted area. Despite the fact that the
stadard of road construction has been generally good, many sections have been subject
to frequent damage, particularly from landslides, and therefore required regular
maintenance. Although this has not been a major problem as long as the project was
operional, these roads have to be transferred to the Public Works Departrnent (PWD)
whose maintenance budget is limited.
6. Project Result
6.1 Changes In the Project Area: In agriculture, maize remains the main crop
during the Kharlf (summer) season but over the project period new varietes and higher
Input use have become widespread and yields and productbon have increased. Data
collected by the project authoriies and by studies financed under the project/ show
that over 60% of farmers have adopted some of the upgraded technical packages and
over the period 1983-1992, maize yieds for the best farmers have risen by more than
150% to over 2 t/ha. The adoption of Improved maize varieties has accelerated In the ls
two years as it has Increasingly become a cash crop. Higher prices offered by
manufacturers of poultry feed and corn oil (up to Rs5/kg) made it atractve to sell maize
and consume wheat flour which was Imported from Paklstan and sold at a subsidised
price of Rs3.4/kg. Fodder producton has also increased, particuarly In the crcal inter
months21, due to partl replacement of wheat by oats by an estimated 60% of farmers.
Apple plntaions In the area have been upgraded and expanded with the Introduction of
Improved varetes and apples are becoming a signfficant cash crop. In the liWstock
sector, preventve vaccination campaigns and regular dewonning have covered about
90% and 40% of catte In the project area, respectively. Initial resistance to vaccinations
have baen overcome and farmers now appear to be prepared to pay for good animal
health services. There has also been a substion of local dairy cattle by Improved
breeds from the Punjab. In areas where this has happened, milk production has grown,
total catfle numbers have fallen and grazing has been reduced as improved dairy buffalo
breeds, such as the Neeli Ravi buffalo, perform best when stall fed. Increasingly, cotton
'/ BEaselne Survey and Second Montolong Report (see Part Il, Section 6D).
21 IMnte is tte man pwo of fodder sotge.
8
seed cake and whe straw has been imponed to sustain productivity of the new breeds,
which Is economically attractive because of milk shortages and rising prices. Shortages
of fuelwood have resulted in higher prices. People are incringly using improved stoves
and altemative fuels like kerosene and liquid petroleum gas (LPG), but supplies, especially
In the case of LPG, are limited and unreliable.
6.2 Prolect Benefts: The developments in the project area were largely the result
of good project implementtion, combined wth favourable market opportunities and the
fact that proJect actives addressed urgent needs of the population. in the case of maize
and oats, the project provided new varieties, improved technical packages and a network
of demonstration plots which enabled farmers to raise yields and output in response to
the rsing price of maize and milk. Similarly, new apple varieties produced In project
nurseries proved popular as they were a suitable cash crop for familes who were faced
with labour shortages. In livestock, improved health services were an Important factor in
encouraging the replacement of local dairy cattle with high cost Improved breeds. In
forestry, shortages of fuehwood had reached acute levels and farmers were eager to
benefit from the project and plant trees on bunds, around their houses and on communal
grazing areas. The possibqiy of doing so at subsidised prices without any impact on their
property rights proved very acceptable. Although 12,900 ha of fuehwood/fodder species
have been planted, most plantations are still Immature and have not had a major Impact
on supplies. The check dams constructed under the project have been successful from
the technical point of view but their importance In the overall context of soil and water run-
off has been limited to the local catchment area. The project also helped to further
develop and refine technical packages, particularly for crops, animal healfth and fuelwood
plantings in prvate/communal lands, which are replicable in other pars of AJK Of all
proJect components the roads component is likely to have the most signfficant long term
impact The direct benefits of better roads, combined with the availability of a low cost
vehicle (the Suzuki) suitable for hill conditions, were a tremendous increase In passenger
and goods traffic and a fall of about 30% In transport costs. Improved road access also
had a number of indirect benefits such as better access to healfth and educational
faciltes, greatr contacts with markets and easier dissemination of new technologies. In
fact, better roads were a prerequisite for many of the changes which took place in the
project area. The main project risk, as identified at appraisal, was lack of farmer Interest
In adopting improved packages. Despite continuing migration in search of off-farm work
and shortages of labour in critical periods, the combined effect of the project and market
forces ensured that this did not occur. On the contrary there has been a change In
peopls' attitude towards more commercilised agriculture with a deliberate attempt to
exploi market opportunities.
6.3 In terms of the "Hill Management Strategy0, the project has met the first two
objectives of Increasing production of food, fodder and fuelwood from farm and waste
lands; and developing a set of land use maps demarcating areas for different uses.
However, the project failed in its third objective of Improving the utilisation of the upper
watersheds incduding natural forests and pastures.
9
6.4 FInanc�al and Economic Analysis: The finandial and economic analyses for
the project have been redone using updated prices, and yield and output data collected
by the mission and recent sunre. In line with the SAR, the impact of adopting improved
technical packages on high and middle atude farms was exoamined. The models show
large Increases In Incomes from adopting improved vareties and cultivation techniques
and the proporto Increases are simlar to those presented in the SAR (Part III, Table
6.0). These large increases In Incomes are highly dependant on the Increased output of
mik and maize. A drop of 25% in the "wih project producUon levels of mUk and maize
would reduce the Increase In Incomes from 78% and 131%, for middle and high alttude
farmers respetively, to 38% and 89% (Annex 1).
6.5 The re-estimated economic rate of return (ERR) Is based on prevailing economic
prices and estimated adoption rates. As disussed in para 6.2, not all changes in the
project area are due to the project and i has been assumed that half of Increases in
output and incomes are directly due to project Interventions and the remainder due to
other favourable circumstances. On this basis, the re-estimated ERR is 14% as compared
to the SAR estmate of 22%. The lower ERR is largely due to less production of meat and
fuelwood than estimated in the SAR.
7. Project Sustalnability
7.1 A number of acvites threaten the sustainability of project acMes. The future
of the 630 staff hired under the project was a mgjor cause of concem for the Bank and
the Government Alfthough most of tse staff (480) have been recently regularised, what
impact this would have on other developmental expenditures In AJK is not yet dear. The
coninued subsidised pricng for seedlings and animal health services Is creating a
budgetary problem for the Govemment and restricting the involvement of the private
sector in the provision of these serices. In the project area the FD has already reduced
producton of seedlings for sale to the public. This was despite the fact that present
plnted area is sufficient to meet only half the fuelwood requirements of the area, there
Is a continuing demand for seedlings and farmers are willing to pay full cost prices.
7.2 A number of factors may also place future project benefits at risk. Favourable
maket drcmstanes, like the relatively high price of maize, may not continue, thus
reducing the incentive to produce more. The reliance on a few varieties of maize and
fuewood treesi also risky as disease or pests may have a devasting effect. There Is
therefore a need to continue with the programme of adapvive research but funding may
be a problem. Lastly, the Govemment is unlikely be able to continue to give the same
level of attenton to the project area in the future as a large number of other proJects
covering different areas are planned or are presently under implementation.
10
S. Bank Performance
8.1 The Bank's peormance was generaly good both in the period prior to project
start and during project implementation. However, there were some problems during the
final stages of appraisal. There was a long delay beten the dppraisal mission's visit to
AJK (June 1983) and the Issue of the SAR (March 26,1984). The project was negoad
in January 1984 wihout a final appraisal report and formial dearance from GOP. This
evenully contributed to substantial delays between credit approval and effectiveness
(para 5.1). There was also litte attempt to communicat the proJect strategy to Xt
project authoriftes, particarly middle level technical staff. Future projects of this kind
which rely on a set of integrated measures need to make special efforts at project start
to acquaint staff with the project concept, its objectives and the strtegy to follow. During
implementation most components were adequately supervised and where necessary
changes were made, such as the decision to "black top" project roads. mTe main
exception was the lestock component where the lmited technical input provided by
supervision missions was used mostly on the development of LDC and this contributed
to the fact that litffe was achieved on animal production aspects. The dcose involvement
of the Resident Mission In supervision, particularly of the forestry component, was not
only very cost effective but also instrumental in the success of this component
9. Borrower Performance
9.1 Borrower performance during most of the implementaion period was
satisfatory, and within the constraints set by project design, GOAJK made every effort
to make the project a success. However, hre were a number of delays In taking some
Of the decisions agreed wth the appraisal mission and at negotiaions. In paricular, it
took some time to instit a new travel policy for veterinary staff which was different from
arrangements in vogue wifthin other lne departments In AJK and Pakistan.
10. Project Relationship
10.1 The reationship between the Bank and the Borrower was good. The GOAJK
made every effort to fulil all the needs of the project while the Bank provided all help and
cooperation. The relationship with GOP was also good and the Bank was instrumental
In getting the Federal Ministy of Finance to set up a revoMng fund for the project which
greatly facilitated implementation.
11. Consufltng Servics and Procurement
11.1 Consultants: The project uihised the services of expatriate consultants (52 man-
monfs) for development of apples, forage and forest nursery management The
consults, all supplied by a single firm, worked well with local counterparts and were
11
instrumental in fe adoption of a number of technological innovaions like hot bed rooting
and improved budding techniques for apple seedling production. However, in the case
of fodder and forage trials, the work of the consultants was not sufficenty followed up
by local counterpart, in terms of Impact on animal production and pressure on grazing
In forest areas.
11.2 Contactors: For construction of roads and small structures (extension centres,
fertilizer depots, etc.) the project relied on small local contractors, most of whom
performed well. Problems and delays arose with the constructon of the LDC and the
Forestry Seed Centre which involved larger contractors who were Involved in a number
of different works and hence had trouble maintaining agreed schedules.
12. Project Documentaton Daft
12.1 The DCA adequately covered major aspects of project implementation.
However, inclusion of full technical speciications for roads was unnecessary, especially
as these proved unsuitable and had to be subsequently modified. Project implementation
was based on the PC I which mainly followed the SAR. While the PC l/SAR had enough
dil to guide physica Implementaton, th"y did not sufficiently cover many issues such
as management, sequencing of and integration between acties, and detils of the
adaptive research programme. Better documentation on these areas would have been
useful.
12.2 The GOAJK made every effort to supply Information necessary for preparaon
of the PCR. While good data were available on project works, such as buildings, area
planted and staff recruited, the project's impact on the beneficiaries in terms of increased
output and incomes WaS not weUl documented. The i corporation of a more formal and
sysematic method of monitoring and evaluation as part of project actMties would have
provided a better assessment of project impact and highlghted any problem in project
impIVentaion, both to the GOAJK and Bank supervision missions.
12
PART Il
Borrowee8 comments
1.1 The Implementation of Interated Hill Farming Development Project,
eorealy, startd fom 1st of July, 1984, but for IDA purposes, its effectveness
commenced on January 30, 1985. Aftr initial teething problems and resolution of
funding isses, its fug scale implementation could only be started by the end of April,
1985. Thus, practically year I was unavailed Off. The project management istalled in
the Inkial years continued throughout except where changes were inevitable.
1.2 The report of the evaluaton mission, as contained In part I and ill of the
PCR, is more or ess in order. The statical da provided In part IlIl Is In line with the
projet records, and nothing is found at variance with that
1.3 The analysis of the evalation misson, as in Part I of the PCR, reflects a
fair asssent, however, there are Insmances where accurate conciusions are not the
one indicated In the report and these may be viwed as only the indMdual
perceptons, but, by and lge, the analysis is very thorough and penetaing.
1.4 As regards factors affecting project implementation, PCR analysis is firly
accurate but in listing the weaknesses, IndMdual percepions have come in by
concluding the failure to remove interdepartmental rivalres by appointnt of a single
Serestry. In our view this has been the single plus point for effectve project
implention. Similarly the opinion that local communites in project planning and
integradon of lne departments for land use purposes was less than satiactory may
not be a fair view. Maize improvement programme and communal reforestaton could
not have been accomplished witout involement of local communities. In ary case
t general PCR analysis is upto the mark.
1.5 The Bank's performance wth regard to the project had remained quie
satisfacty. There were very few serious problems between the Bank and the Project
Moreover It is Imperative to emphasize that at tImes some covenant i included in the
agreement which has much wider applicton for the borrower than originally perceived
and Barnk's persitnc on their fulillment crates serious financial and admnistative
problm for the borrower. Travel policy for the livestock staff and pratzaon of
pesicides are paularly cases in point under the ast Project. is fekt that if, at any
tfme, any such covenant is included it should not stubbomly be pursued which creafs
greater problms for the borrower. Bank's cooperation getn ng the system of
speca account stituted for Bank's financal projects has been one of the most
important steps taken to facilitte the project implem non. Had k not been the
case, project islmention would haVe been raught wih serious problems. Bank's
regular biannual supeision has also been helpful in sorting out issues, but at the
13
same tIme, ther have been some stings as well. It was rare that some new
suggtons had not come from the missions Ignoring that any change In project
scope required authentication from the body wich last approved the project In such
circumstances, project managment has been In a frying pan. nt would be In Fe
ftess of things that the World Bank missions limit their vits to review only the
performance as envisaged under the programme and do not make changes as
proposed for additional staffing during Inital period of the project unless It Is deemed
ineviable. There may also be consisnt policy In asking f1or maintaining all Fe staff
engaged during execution and maintenance but at the same time insistng on
additional staffing each time.
1.6 The procurement procedures followed by the Bank are rarely well
understood by the project managers with the result that te procurements are delayed
and proJect execution as well
1.7 As regards borrower's performance we belive that we have sincerely
and effectivemplemented all the covenants of the DCA, and AJK Govemment
provded al the needed poitical support for the project implemnton and its
succssful impmentaion created demonstrat effect which aroused public
aspiratons for replication in other areas. Despite its othwr obrigtions and
adminstrative diflicultes AJK Govemment assigned one Secetary for the Deparment
of Agriculture, Forests, Livestock for effective coordination and proper implementation
of the project This arrangement effectively worked and should be considered In other
cases also.
1.8 The compactness of the project area and its accessbli are two
Importnt fators for effctve supervision which should not be lost sight of In similar
prS. The one Importnt point needs special mention. The Development Credit
Agreement (OCA) Is generally a refection of the SAR whi credit effec is linked
with the approval of the PC-1 by the competent authority which always follows SAR
In most cases SAR provisions and proposals are not agreed to In toto by the PC-1
approving body. The conflict arises and things become confused. ft may be
suggested tat credit agreement should only be concluded when a PC-1 Is finally
approved so that there are no contadictions in SAR and PC- and PC-1 approval is
not a conditon for project effeciveness. In arge projects retoctve financing should
be allowed as a matter of routine rahr Fan exception so that project preparaton and
needed stdies are assigned to permanent staff engaged for the project
1.9 The international competitve bidding 0CB) for procurement of vehies
and equlpmentsraganst credit projects is a verytime consuming aclty. t is very
rare that an equipment ordered through ICB arrives before a years time. In many
cas Xt vehices and equipments are also available locally but Xt $50,000 ceiling Is
so small an amount that no perceivable vehide or equipment can be procured through
LCB. ft Is suggested that the amount for ICB be raised substally so that project
14
requiremens are met with Immediately. In case of consultancy servics price must be
made a part of the seleton criteria. It is highly unfair that a actional margin In
competence is not allowed to go for a age price margin.
1.10 In case of Integrated Hill Farming Development Project, the Bank was
kind enough to incdude price as a selotion criteria but In other case they generally do
not do th.
1.11 To sum up as general impression, the project performance and Bank-
borrower relationship had been quite satisfactory. The project Is regarded as a
success story and has evolved new management model and many technical packages
for replon.
V-
IL~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
II j~~~~~~~~$ ~~~~j I.1~ad AnA
16
Comments on Table 2:
1. At preration stage, proposals for the roads component were still not finalised. Also
there were disagreements wth GOAJK regarding project management.
2. At appraisal, major issues related to project management, Improved salary scales hor
extension workers and a mobiliy allowance for veterinary workers.
3. At negotaons, the GOP agreed to make appropriate arrangements regarding
outstanding Issues, appoint the project coordinator, arrange counterpart funding and
obtain approval for the final project document (PC Q. Decisions/actions on these Issues
by GOP were much delayed, which resulted In delays in project effecfiveness.
3. CredIt Disbursement
bmw 0 aWS Omwa dma
_ ~~~~~~d E& E#.
............. UN... kg1 . ............. .... ......... .... .........sa
FY8U I Q 0.7 6 -
II 2.4 2-30
FYf s 1 4.9 018 8 4.09 0AS 7
U 6. W6 13 5.6 0.6 12
FY87 1 7.8 276 35 7.47 2.8 31
i 102 4.10 40 S7 O4 35
FYI I 12.6 28S 42 1208 42S S6
a 14A W77 40 1S.76 49 30
FY11 I 1"6 7.70 47 1579 6o0 38
U 18. 867 47 17.61 60 s
FY 90 I 1Q4 1000 52 1657 7.67 42
U 21.0 125 60 20.10 QQ0 4
FY91 1 I 15.14 * 7 80n 4. /
U -1514 723/ .1. SS3/
FY92 1 1i"18 S/ 127 6S3/
n 17.43 633/ 13.00 NW'
Oft ofi 4dMSuuiS t 8.0.p w 22 192
1/ Asa0n60/910
I/ On ed6 Q_ lane rR US1 - 8Wl0.967 ullch W wed to co t SAR figue US$21.0 nen 10 Cfiure i 600.11 ninm.
3/ As ppop d1ct reS amont (US$21 mUon or 80R20.1 millontq
17
4. Prolect Impl _metlofn
8AR EbUmate ActuI or PCR ActuI as of
Maz Impovemt 15,200 he 12,260 ha 81
Wheat Impovemernt 6,640 ha 2,800 ha 42
Fodder 5,000 ha 2,950 ha 59
Apple Platao 1,380 hg 1,233 ha s9
Forsty
Plat hI Deacat
Forest 4,680 ha 2,569 ha 55
Pine 1,0o0 h 1,176 ha 118
Futwood 5,680 ha ,745 ha 68
Sub-Toal
Communly/Prlat Plant 3,800 ha 11,746 ha 309
Seedlings to Frnmers 12 mllon 13.35 mlon 111
Foreign Train 44 months 15 months 34
Local Training 1,128 monts 972 months 86
Uwasock
Vacdnaion Coverage 7096 f cattle 93% of caffle 133
Dawming 20% of cattle 37% of cattle 185
Roads
New Roads 39 km 64 kms 164
Imprvd Roads 78Wm 91 kmh 117
Oth0m
Techc Al 52 mortols 52 month 100
SON C
L setone Check Dasn 300,000 ma 372842 m3 124
LMaonty Check Dam 1,800 m 4,092 m 227
Mos data re rto 1991.
5. Prolect Costs and Financing
A. Project Costs
....... Apph Es ftate ............ .. .............. ACtUaI ..
Local Foreign Total Local Foregn Tota Local Forelgn Total Loal Foreign TotW
Re IMIbn .on . . ... ... US$ lllln ...... . Re MIlon ...... ..... lJUS$ U .on1
Cost by Compon
Agrturs 49.0 1&8 66.8 3.8 1.3 5.1 0.5 7.3 97.8 4.71 0.40 5.11
LUvestok 23.7 .7 30.4 1.8 0.5 2.3 342 0.3 34.6 1.73 0.02 1.75
Foresy 98.3 10.5 108.8 7.6 0.8 8.4 138.8 a6 147.5 6.98 0.47 7.45
Feeder Roads 42.3 3.1 45.4 3.2 0.3 3.5 170.8 0.6 171.4 850 0.04 8.54
Prolect Maement 11.5 4A 16.9 0.9 0.3 1.2 19.7 1.2 20.8 1.02 0.07 1.09
ContIngencfes 67.4 10.7 68.1 5.2 0.8 6.0
TOtl 292.2 52 3344 22.5 4.0 26.5 4540 16.0 471.9 22.93 1.00 23.93
/ Local acreny costs conve to US$ at hisorc rates of exchae.
19
B. Prolect Finandng
Cot Cateory Credit AmIountl Actual Atul as Prop
of Planned
US$'000F/ SDR '000 US$ '000 SDR '000 USS SDR
CMi Woafs
LUestock Dev. Centre 522.4 500.0 623.6 467.9 119 94
Other 6,861.2 6,610.0 5,927.6 4,432.0 101 79
Foestry Establimt & Soil 2,696.6 2,580.0 4,080.3 3,055.6 161 118
Conseralon Wofks
Equlpmett Vehicls, Fumiture, 877.6 840.0 969.9 739.9 109 88
Materls & LUestock
Tmn and Sudies 700.0 670.0 133.3 98.3 19 16
onsulants SerNie 1,003.0 960.0 845.7 633.2 84 68
Stf Salaris & Othr Operating 7,679.1 7,360.0 4,232.6 3,261.2 55 44
Unallocated 1,661.2 1,590.0 623.13/ 628.03/ 38 39
Total 21,000.0 20,100.0 17,421 13,;16.1 63 66
-/As per schedue 1 of CA dated 05/4/84.
2 1Corwtd at the rte of US$1 = SDR0.9671.
3/ Nt amouwn paid hnto SpecW Accoun
20
A DOket Beneft
Unk Appaulal EsUmate PCR EsUmtIme1
Famw Paftcpation No. 25,800 (60%)2/ 25,800 (60%)
Pdmal lProducton
maize tons 15,00 (100%)3/ 13,350 (7%)%P/
Whet tons 8,900 (270%)/ 288 (100%)9
Apple tons 13,800 (2,200%)'/ 12,330 (274%)"
Uvesdok Producton
MUlk tons 20,100 (87%)" 13,780 (17%)l
Met tons 480 (34%)3/ _ 4/
Proporfon o Fodder fom On- % 70.O0/ 75
Farm Sources
Foresty Prloductins
Fusiwood 000 ma 50W406/ 12.1207/
1 Mostdat refer to 1991/92 ecept for appsand fuwood.
Y Nume and poporton of fme partcpt at the clo of the proJec
A/ inrase shmn In quanis and as p kcrea In perge over ut pro
s o PCR wito proec figures dIfier somewhat ftrom SAR figures.
4clrmental nWat poducto direcly at to pr t was minrmal.
6/ As cmpad to 3040% as at prnt
8/ Annwal production of 60,000 m In year 10 wowid rse to 340,000 m9 In year 15.
7/ Annual production d 12,000 n In year 11,IIng to 124,000 r In year 15
BL Elo_i Impa
SAR PCR
Economic Rate of Return 22.3% 13.5%
21
Underlying Assumptions
1. As In the SAR, the analysis has been carred out over a 25 year period; all project
costs have been nluded; and project benefts are increased output of agricuitural and
iestock products and of fuewood (valued at economic prices and using a standard
conversion factor of 0.9). An allowance of 2% per annum of project costs has been made
over the project life to cover the costs of maintaining project services and facilies after
project closing.
2. Cropping pattems and yields are based on the mission's observations, survey reports
(Section 6.D) and discussions with project staff. In the case of wheat and maize SAR
assumptions on yields were unchanged, but In the case of livestock and fuehvood,
Increases projected In the SAR were reduced in line with recent findings.
3. Increased output Is a result of project actions as well as favourable market
aircumstans. In the base case it has been assumed that hal of increased output Is due
to the project and the rest to other factors. If all increases in output are aliocated to the
project, the rate of return rises to 28%.
comment
1. Supporting tables for the economic analysis are shown In Annex 1.
C. Financial Inpact
M.
,_b_....... pr EbA ........ ...... IfOR Edk_ ...... .... .... M XN .... .... CE_
_t an % SI I MAsS b hASm a
P* 1t1, 'r4w R*d R*d Pa*d
.......... ti1s m .........1998 ....... .. _ ....... ........ mm .......
Mo"lA3/ O6 11.9 79 12.6 2MA 79 12.61 24.68 78
1dd / 65 166 16 12.3 31.3 15 11.16 2675 131
A/ Id dswlopnusnft. Onlc yle ftoM prjd OlMt Up In Onecu OM mof I U1Aana irne WUhiDecu "I moe .
2/ js piB are 69 alhe 1985 Ws1.
as/ F b 1,50D _ h. Theh 1.0 ha c cuII lend and W 0. hk d hde g -1dg
4/ hWM ebM I.W he" 0.8 he d =iW* Wi wad 0.6 hel d hiud hab sng
1. Suppodn bbleb for nmn anall we ctle hI Ane 1. Tabls 1-7. As In the 8AK ory WIm kIonae 4W achoul for tawnb
wbow) huewbeen shown. Hoew Issrede dung.. neusperma bmDy labour ar el bn bmuex 1. Tale?7.
22
D. Studli
Sftdy Tlb Putpose Sau Impact of Study
Baseline Survey and First To determine whhr Fid sureys cd No sgnficant impact
Montorw Repot1 projec actvie out In March/Aprg on projet actiis.
Intrated HM Famfing paI y In rebtion to 168M and final report
Developmen ProJect the HUI Managment submibed.
I m oProgmmes are being
achived.
Second Monioring Field surve
Report Intgrad HM conducted In May
Farming D lopment 1991 and rport
Poject Implementation s In
September 1991
7. Sta of Co
DCA Descripdo of Covennts CompUanae Remwks
Sedon
3.03 Estabhmet of a Project Developmet OKI
Committee
&04 Estabishment of a Project Coordiat OK
Unit
3.06.(a) Employ co_nsutt In line wih IDA OK
procedures and guidelnes
3.05.(b) Employ c tats In agriulr, OK
silture and apple production
3.06.(a) Insurne of Imported goods OK
3.06.(b) Goods and servies purchased by the OK
Credit to be used only for the prject
3.07.(a) Provide IDA wfth conact, work and OK
pmait doumens
3.07.(b)1 Maintain records of project progess OK
307.(b).J Allow IDA to visit and eamine project OK
facEte
3.07.0b).11 Provide IDA with infaon on projet OK
i progre
3.07.(c) Publicin by IDA of deails of OK
coracts awarded
3.07.(d) Prepartion of compon rpot at OK Borrer urdetook to send Part 11
most skx monts after project to the Bank by end of August 1992
comlet Pan I & III done by FAO/CP.
23
DCA DesipUon o Covenants Compance Remid
SecUon
3.08 Acquire all land necessay for the OK Whle land acquison was not a
project problem, the Lvestock Development
Centre bofd svre problms wih
obtainin water. Thes problm
have now been sowved.
3.09 Seed growers to ree premium price OK
for outp and market prte for Inputs
31Q Prvtse fertilzer and pesicide OK Fertilizer distibution was handed
distribution by June 30, 195 over to liensed private dealers as
of June 1985. Petcide subsidies
were eliminated In a phased manner
wih complet eliminton of
subsidies and privdaton taldng
plae by July 1988.
3.11 Feeder roads to be consucted as set OK SpecMcalos set out In the DCA
forh In Schedule 4 of the DCA were subsequently modfed. Thes
allwed for blackaoppln of all
roads as well as other minor
3.12 Adequately maitain feder roads OK2 This may wel be a problem In the
fthure as PWD dos not hae
adequaftefunds for rod
maktrlncm.
&13 Pr e, agree with reln local OK Draft hill management tategy
autho s and Implent a staty for docuet st to IDA on March 21,
deloping hill rming (by Sept 195.
30,1984)
3.14 Prepe, agree and iplemet cost OK Draft agreement preprd and st
shan aem betwen tte to RMP on Januaiy 7, 1985. Bank
Foresry Dept and prIvate/communal agreed vi lr of RMP dated
frest ownrs (by Septeber 30, 1984) March 27,1985.
3.15 a programme to evaluate the OK Baseliw and irst niring surv
vious pats of te project (by do by Karachl Unisty. The
December31, 1984) survey design did not alloN
menu quaifcation of prolect
impact on production and Incom
.16 Inbtduce a unified T&V Extension OK Removal of non_extenson dutes
system by September 30,1984 and d d due to dmicules wih
relieve etnsion worlks of non- psticide dlrton. Pesicides
exteion dute (by Septmber 30, were prVatsed In July 1988
i985)9/
24
OCA ucrpUonof Coventcomplinc R _
Secion
317 Prepare draft con bew OK Agment with Paistan
Depatmn d Agcture and AnImal Agricultural Research Councl
Husbandry wIth an apopate rearch snd on June 24.1985/
Institute (by June 30, 1965)
3.18 Faosy Depatmt and the PakMin OK Agreeret signed on March 25.
Forsty Research Instte to eter Into 1985
and cn a (by Septeber 30,
19084)
3.19 Rovbw after one ye of DCA signin OK Reviwed and appwved by
pefomanc of veterinary fid superAison mission of November
1985.
/ Reed In Aprl 1987to June 30, 198&
2/ The Roades Dvsion of the Projec adequately nutaiWd roads und March 31, 109
'/ Dates for revioed In Aprl 1987 to June 30, 198.
4/ PARC was to proki d In prpaton d ded piln for fe Livsock Departmt cen
SD and In deskn and spevifsg the fildd testing pogramme Howe, ony spport was
pk amd er des on d the r3C.
-' 9 amendi so Fat revlbw would be done by Deowbc 31, 1985 (r*k NBr Of RMP dXdd
Jmy 21, 1985).
25
A. Sta hpul
PrAplull App*W Nego*an Loan SuprVisIon
ProOing
................IIFOIW ........* .............. bfe
FY80 1.4
FY 81 0.1
FY 82 1&9
FY83 52.9 41.7 0.3 1.1
FY 84 29.3 9.0 4.7 5.0
FY 85 10.4
FY 88 43.8
FY87 162
FY 88 15.0
FY 89 124
FY 90 7.0
FY 91 5.3
FY 92
Total 682 71.0 9.0 5.0 126.0
1/ Indudes 1.5 staf week for prjadmnitrto not fal d relad to a proect" 0.1 stff w
on 7reviwi eauatMng or updatng infrmaton fbr Xt Annui Review of Imple n and
Sqpvilon (RS) rcse", an .. for PCR pe
B. Midons
_sd"lolSy b MrA W gtF o W to b ss Mhbftn4t/ Pi_Mbi nawa
Ifiminu_ I_I 1 1
PIparepwSon M 05/82 2 6 A E
Plf"on 10/J2 4 14 A E E F
App_k 08/83 7 2t ML. A.E, F, L
RA
aqiadu 1i/ 01/85 2 I A.F 2 Fkwnd$L
MON
............................ plm f . ...................._._.....ng
SU8_tn2 II/so 2 4 E. F I I 2 2 Tod""
8 _vm a Ot/S a a , F. En t 2 2 2 MIA Tect
8_Aln4 tt/8B 2 4 A, F t 2 2 2 M_%TOM
_q,d=6 00/87 4 6 A, E, F. L t 2 1 2 Tectlw
8E_ we ys2 3 A, F I 2 2 2 Tenk
SWW,d_7 0l/8 J 6 A.,F,L t 2 t 2 I%Tech
9 4 8 e,/8 4 4 AE. EN l F t 2 t 2 Todd"
_UWVd 9 tO/119 3 S A, F" F t 2 1 2 2 TedHw
subv" 10 0S/90 a 5 E. F. L 1 2 t 2 2 ht Tedi
g_twm t t2/S 2 3 E. F 1 2 1 2 2 mm
8wwupn 12 9J9t I I E t 2 t t 2 F
t/ A: Epdvo Emwo Etc En~. P Fo_; L: Ukw E" ML: _Ion l_;or R^: P_ch Assl_
2/ Ihlft |ze F IA el ilb tdM bsy Go O K t_ MMH Fein Tecbt Oflr_wtPr"
3/ ftr poM s, mnpu.
PAKISTAN
Integrated Hill Farming Development Project
Planned (SAR) and Actual Achievements
Agricultural Component Forestry Component
tdi.i ii.iii i?ii3iiiiiiiiiiii ............ i. . . . i.-.i........... ?i :i li3i : ..... 1
14 12 - ? i.. .i-. . : -: iiii ii ii i i i
tO | _ ......... g .. ....... ..................~~~~~. ................. ............. .....{ ...... .
102
3 6 6 .......~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.. i.ii ii . . . . i1ii*6.... ........... ............ .......................-..i- . ..
12 . .. ......... 2
MaO Pa, Whea Uaz (Poddew) Oas 8wdfbimJp AppbO OeSOne4d Fo,C5t5 CommJ lfltY/IrSn Sedil OsIrbeU
Livestock Component Roads Component
1e0~~~~~~~ tOO . ... .. ..: .. .. . .. . .. . -._.I
100.100 ..~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~... ...
M.~~~~~~~~~~~~~m M .i......
V_~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~e Reweums *NfW ,,ds*
C
|l3Paned1iActual | o
28
hinexttl I: Riut^ E "_ bmnmuilFPdoee
Pan 4.e gf
esa Gm La0 I."l
10w 1.0 10
APdn 7.0 Om
e n an0 amv
- ssqSam(n am8 Wo
leOuMbm imaI,, (greend) to0 .7
a I.S * ra .
MIl (AIL 8.0810
Umeet" 00 .00a 3*
Mutes am* am*
F,bodn Om0 0.78 St
Mew,
nd. LAO am
WuVt Ica 410
Howswompumeebdom 4.80 405
cm 480 4
Apple esedmnos bAasI@ 8.00 o . 4l
FP.-
FMe 0.706.0
FYM 0.30 0.18 9
Thsdm04 4&0 44.
fNadue 12.00 10S
Suuad (8.0) Lu 8.8
~~~~~~~~4a
9s m*nAo 1am
IUPbuepntvpss(.
#Iftmnadfeepdmoe0pumeeite u!g meS fa*wo 0.8.
f _moorpebee nIved "W0 a wafwp
trn h ehdsnust eie ds@ ra
29
PAISrALL Itgded HIl Fmiaag D.lpuo ?r*c
Fiaca nd PuomosAicyAa
Arn Table 2. Import Prty Prke for Sdeatd CmmoItI
II - ' '- - 'I - '' '' If- MI Urea
l *�++**�--*-----**-- ~~~~US/tll--- ...........
P cted Pi in USS (1985pcs)V 00 67.00 10.
Projeced Pic in USS (1992 pices) M.14 45 16.
ojt e t Pie 1995
( D1992 pices/ 4.3 2.54
Trnspo Co & Ihsr to
Paktan4/ L14 1.14 12
U g 8 ad Port Cbarges 005 0.05 0.05
Imded Cos (Kah) 532 37S
ft il/ w008 08 0.09
lhworft Racbi-Ram * 0.80 0.80 00
CaMt at Rawalpnd 62 4. 632
Trapt (awapidi-Projc Area) 0.16 0.16 025
Handlin Dirion Costs 0.10 0.10 0.40
Farm G eP 66 4.0 C97
1/ Sowre: Wold Ba Inratnal Fono Dision, Augu 92.
2/ 1985 p o d to 1992 vaes ug MUV Index
3/ 992 USS vWalues c tWd .to 1992 Rs at the exchange rate of US - Rs249&
4/ spt cost US Gulf to Ptan for buk cereals is USW45/M% cos for bulk ferrs in USSS0/t.
Insuramce is 0.5% of value of argo.
A/ MechaiW bai.Xs iSo SO les bva
30
PAWTAN: Itegad Hm Fahnig DwOpetM PrJe
PASAM v Esn Abh
Annx Table 3. Eeononl* Price for Furwood
Import Parity Price of Kerosene Rs/litre 4.75
Heat Value of Kerosene Kcaml/tte 8,109
Effective Heat fram Kerosene (40% efficiency) KcaI/Iitre 3,244
Cost of Effective Heat fiom Kerosene Rs/000 Kcal 146
Heat Value of Fuehwood (air dried) Kcal/kg 4,700
Effective Heat from Fuetwood (15% efficiency) Kcal/kg 705
Value of FPulwood in Kerosene Equivale Rs/kg 1.03
Value of Fuelwoot in Kerosene EquWalent Rs/m3 748
l1. 11, ['lid' h-,1 :- fli
WtgfXWW }tylIt {S g{gW I1
111s
IE [i?|
| ;Nfcc pocc cot- i;Bfi 0 00 p ;| :1l 2 1L
1'8I i{{
1.1] S'I
32
PArISrAN Jtogt Hi FPmig D _w4opmnt PArd
FmWl ad Zemn* An**
Anna Table S. Crop, lAetock and FWlwood Yid
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~~S A PCRI/
Without With Wibout Wi
____________ ~~~FftOJS I ftj I frod Prt~ect
...................... tm la................ ....
Maize (Grain) 080 200 080 200
Wheat (Grain) 0.60 L60 0.60 170
Apples 4.50 100 450 10.00
Main Fodder/Hybid SWohum2/ 8.00 6.50
Oas/ - 4.50 - 4.00
SwedeS2/ 6.00 4.00
... .. ... . . .litres/farm . . . . . . . ...
Uwestock
Model A 900 100 2X61 2SSO
Model B 900 Z1W0 1,770 2,30
* - - - m3/haa
FUelwood
Mean Annual bnreen3 7.6 4.6
Yields based on miso's observaons, GOAJK surves and tial and Uniersty of Karachi, Applied
Econamics Rsearch Cere, Scod Monong Survey, L99L
2/ Dry matter eit
3/ Based on yeld at end of first totation of 10 years. Lower PCR yeld estmate based on FD cutting trials.
33
PAKISTAM: Integrated Hf t t Farming Devolpment Project
Financial and Economic Analysis
Mm Tebe 6. Per wbtatCe Costs ard etwim
Il- ~~~~~I I' coIt|l a _l
___________ V_ We,t of Prcdmtimn Direct I Costs Idaou I mnatUwfits
Vithbt With Il tholut V WIth Withot With Flqn aIEcpic
projeect ject ProJect I Project P
........ . . m ,ib . . . . . _ . . OD Roa
Maize (Grain & 6.56 16.40 2.02 3.61 79 94 8.25 5.35
stover)
Wheat (Grain & 3.27 9.73 0.64 2.35 66 74 4.75 5.97
Stower)
Aples 31.50 70.00 0.18 5.84 80 136 32.84 12.95
MNulz.Sadabahar - 16.25 - 2.76 - 69 13.49 7.22
oats - 12.00 - 1.47 - 80 10.54 4.25
Swedes - 12.00 - 1.94 - 100 10.06 2.0?
. . . . . . . 00O if ... . . . . T * dayJfarm. . . 00S Wfaa.
Mitk (Modtl A) 18.55 22.95 9.12 10.81 100 120 2.71 1.33
Mltk (Nodel S) 15.93 21.15 8.66 10.38 100 120 3.50 2.03
1/ Value of production tess direct lnput costs.
21 Value of production lees direct input costs and fmpltcit cost of family labour at econoc prices.
[ri han
i 1 a E E E E '' S; h A | [ ; F
[ u 1;N$ {{~~~~~~~~~~~~
9EESE S W;; %*. X
I~~~~ I aQ;t";;;E_
35
PMASTAN: Hnal F umtOaWbpWtP0jW
Ann Tb 8: Adaption R OM AO Unded Inmpwd crapp
YouI Yew2 Year3 Yea4 YearS YearS Yw7 Yoa* YearO Ya0IO
ADOPTION RATES FOR NEW TECHNOLOGIES
ofTCSaFPIwWV. ... . .. . . .......
MaIze 0 8 10 10 as so 16 go 0 0o
Wheat 0 6 10 20 15 so 1 do so so
Malasl04dbahar 0 0 10 10 2 1 so so so0 s
Oae 0 0 0 10 20 so s0 so 60 6o
Seds a 0 0 10 20 26 30 as d0 60
Uwisocl 0 0 a 10 20 25 10 as so 6o
TOTAL AREA UNDER DIFFERENT CROPS
.... . . -- ~~~ha . ..... ..... ..... ....
Maim 22086 21939 21616 20068 20413 20406 20406 240 20406 20406
Wheat 4730 47 48 4780 470 47 40 40 4730 4780
APPle 72 83m 1022 1188 1377 145 1710 1642 1066 1066
Maizuledbaher 0 0 70 2S4 717 1340 1570 1566 18n0 1660
de a0 0 0 74 240 684 873 016 01 26
bwedse 0 0 0 0 3B 10 913 218 220 4S0
AREA UNDER RAPROVW CROPPING
Meizs 2t 0 1007 210 4194 6103 01o2 7142 10206 12244 12244
Wheat Y 0 27 473 946 1168 1419 l666 216 g838 g898
Apple aY 0 107 190 466 346 $18 987 1110 123S 1238
MaimledtukJi 4/ 0 0 79 234 717 1140 1670 tSB4 1SO 1550
Oat 41 0 0 0 74 240 664 878 01 01 02
sEde 41 0 0 0 0 so 18 213 t1s 229 430
FULOOAROPLND
__........._ ....................."_ ha ~ . ._. _.....__ .....
Demmma#dd FBnaft as 1S 63 10 So0 374 1IM so
OcommikoptICat1 248 398 81 1824 2410 1481 12aS 1892
te4d *6 408 824 128 1a6 166O 1702 142
14 60tim lnUeprfaaealutwiahh 21.060 nm ae _beow 16 m MdaIA)
aid 21.10 In areas _be 1600 m (Maded 5)
2aemododapUlen rMandlappeda.
s 9d en elu nbos of eda d tD tanners unde prow and OAJKitatIN.
4IA5,e go nrnpcn tota aea splntid bs sanderIIUrW wupn dved
PDJBAIWA lVisga1d MM1 FumIng DOmlapmuit P,c*ea
AuwKTabb 9. 1enaui Buielm CRop eUd Lvseook D _Vapmen
Yewl Yewt Yewr8 Yew4 Yar6 YearO Year7 YaS Year. YarlO YeW1 YeOr12 YV138 eW14-t
Meae 000 SMO 11A5 2 S *6W2 .4 V 8744 5.7 .7S 617 65.t17 057 6.7
Whea OA0O 1A45 22 6047 7.0ft $4" 0 6 14.118 16.4 IOI 160 16SM 16O. 14
Appbe e o 0 .000 0.00 0.000 00 00 0.00 16 8.7 6.04 6851 IO. 12.77S 14.1 1lA066
Mdinbdde 0.000 097 1.8 6177 9.076 11.402 11.446 11.481 11.461 11.481 11A86 11A6 11S.48 11A81
Ode O.0 0.000 0.15 ttO 248 .712 WU 860 860 8.7 S 8.7 80V7 &&7 8
dm O0 O0O 0.000 0.W4 084 0.440 0A44 047 0.80 0.85 0.8 08S9 08s8 08�
ToAhlpbtuBS s 0.000 7M 16.280 84.137 46.a98 86.446 04MW 87.971 104.25 tO16.772 10W 111.160 11272 114.84
LIESTOCK 21 0.000 OOmO 9J02 7.04 14.07 160 21 26218 360 422 42 48W 4W2 48W
If Ued en binmal esowm ber sedtafs )bb ) anda under aproved cmppbg (abf CO)
MAwmiee Me been am ist or dlwvahseclpdxu n b *n ara taken mo tis G"be 0.G
21 Oaedo pehm re penlra eeabeS)andedmtaddaponratsol".).
PiTAN kiWgrd HE Prmln Dravnpmati Pr4at
FInuwd and Eonomla Aulyde
Aux TAb It Pr*d OUIut end Economic VWw of Pulmeod
YOrII YeaW12 Yar18 Yatt4 Year Yowl Y17 Ye Y9lY YeaI1 YearO Yain1 Y2Tar2 Yorts YM24 YOi2S
PdmuyQrowth U
D _d tO20od 1.2S0 A t6 .1 I" 17.20 7.77 2g 0.00 000 0Q0 0.00 0m0 0AD oO
Cemmmmlt . 11.16t 16.06 0.618 t8A8 68110 111.27 68.13 11 69t2 87.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 000 0.0 0.0
FirtlatgPAwb 21
Damareod 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O0 120 0.66 gm0 9.15 12.6 1720 7.7? 2.8 0.0 O0
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o00 11.16 180 8t.6U 6AD80 1111t7 68.1 11t62 67.0 OO O0
Smend PAoW_ 21
D _morcat90 AO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 OA OO 20 0I 280 0.15 1288
O0 _MM*tnto OA O0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 OAO 0.00 0.00 11.168 L.0 A1 86 11fi2m
Total 12.7 18.77 42.6 07*S 124.15 07.70 14&08 181.4 07.06 124.16 07.70 1OO t9Q41 07.6 124.
Damaoatd 0.897 01 2.174 6.668 .660 18.6O e8 8A.6 S.66 J60 18.800 6.4 8.600 66 Om66
6.864 186 2.7M 0 876 8.46 80a 100.07 0S 687 6846 80.476 100.0 04OO 67 M8AS6
Totdal .261 147 81.6 74 8.11 A7876 172 0677 7.2A4 0.16 7876 1071 06.77 78*44 0I8.11
t Boodonowlhot48aMtowr 10 tOysaod_areas d dttU ,uat#ls 4.
gflaon _oId4i ol4m owgysweolarmpsi dt r adoproct
MVAeaanuipdoedft7,9WStabl
38
PAISTAN: intgratd IOU Fannng Dewf_ oet P*et
Financia and Eacoonmic Analysis
Annem Table 11: Eadwne Rates and Inflation Rates
11184 1ess 108 1907 1068 139 10t0 11 1062
EXCHANGE RATES
Re per US$11 14.048 15.028 16.648 17.309 16.003 20.541 21.707 2 1 24.20
Re. per GDR it 14.388 16.173 1S.0 224A6 24.195 2.39 20.461 32. 34.123
108465 1SOM 10667 9 1067166 16OM 10OM 1091 1001M 10016
R. perUS$21 15.189 16.131 17.1M 17.56 19.162 2103 22.39 24.781
Re per SOPR 2 1526 17.862 21.014 23.347 252e2 270 S1.00M 33.344
DOM C INFLATORS
Pros indlelsee 131.3 137.57 142.52 151.49 187.23 177.3 106.75 219.70 237.34
OPI (1p00"6-100)
In1ation RAs 4.3 86 0.2 10.9 6.04 12.06 10.00 6O.
Inlo 166.70 189.74 154.20 145.07 131.41 12S.03 110.00 100.00
(to convert current to 106 puloe
INTERNATIONAL INFLATORS
MUVIndex(186s100) 4 0s.60 106.06 123.71 134.23 1S9A4 141.8 147.2 180.63 15.06
Infaion Res 0.40 13.64 8.60 3.15 2.47 9.70 2.42 3.36
bflaor 151.44 138.4S 1212 112.37 106. 106.31 102.42 100.00
(toonvert ren? to 1002 prices)
*I Peiod amemq. Sour: IFS, yewbook 16 Wnd FWS VolumeLV. o,o May 1002.
V erpofcalendayears.
31 8curce: EenmIc Survey. 109001. emment of Palda, Fnac Clon; Monthy S81tia
DuBln, Vol. 40 No, 1, Jauay 102 and pojetos bythe World ank (S9AC.
41 Source: Wald Dank bnemo EommIc Depailetw July 192.
39
PARiOTAN: atgre d MlM Fumig Develpment Pre
Rntw andws Snoleakdyde
AMex Table it YeUwlef) coot In Curren and Conesn Ad
10645 1ow" 1063 10678 1006 0Isom 1060m 10012 TOWl
LoodCwmCcoab ant moaac
AgdcUlhare 2S670 7. 12.170 16.314 16.228 14.109 1161 0.18 00.4
Ukvescek 0.030 .4652 2.902 4.204 760 4.03 6217 4.6O? 34.194
Foaey 2.342 7.140 142W 20.00 2.M 29.44 23125 17.21 133.63
Feede Rods 0.071 1oJ57 29225 13 26.474 42000 36.276 1.06U4 170.789
ProjetManageme 0.26 &O7 23 .402 26 2.24 326 2.24 19.
TOal .7 3124 65.0 6.40S 702 0SA360 61.04 6s74 460
. ... . fiilhin........ . . . .. . ............ ........ .. . ....
(1I6 Pdo.o if
Agdoutu 420 12.264 18.76s 2ME 10 21.26 136 1L706 9.138 120.650
ULtook 0.060 8.614 4.614 e s0 10.e7 .02 6am 4.607 44.042
Feehy 6.004 11.415 22.044 . 144 31.408 86.002 27.636 17.621 17.2
FeedwPrWoad 32 10.64 86.612 10.432 34.7W0 6.S6 8B.6O3 16.64 217.s61
Project _anaemerd 1214 4.1 a 3.67 .464 .104 3262 4.200 2.324 26092
TOal N 606 64.s22 1*A24 101.066 115.76 90.194 .a674 066.6
. -...=._.._.._..__.._Umilha.. .. . .............. . .... .... ._
ForeignCurrnoCos Currert FPd) 2t
AgdUr 0.000 o00o 0.143 0.129 0.183 0.000 0A.00 0.000 0.406
Uvetock o.000 0.000 ono 0.016 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 O01o
Fomewy 0on00 o0e 0.006 0.166 0.146 0.05 0.018 0.000 0.470
Feedef Roado 0.000 0.000 0. 0.000 on.o 0AO 0.000 0A.0O 0.06
PretManagemert O.o0 o0.o 0.052 0.015 0.000 0.000 0A.O 0.000 0.067
TOal 0.000 0.000 0.26 0.346 027 0.025 0.1 0.000 0.0.
.. ......... ..... ussm ........ ........... . .... _ . _.._
(1662 PdcosY1
Agdour 0.000 o0.0 0.175 0.146 0.146 0.000 o0.0 0.O0 0.
uwetock 0O.o o0n0 o.m0 0.016 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.0oo 0.018
Fresy 0.000 OA0 0.117 0200 0.168 0.027 0.018 0.000 O.520
Feoder Pads 0.000 0.000 0.045 0.000 0.000 0.000 OA0 0.000 0.046
ProletManelmen 0.000 0.000 0.064 0.017 0.ooo 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.061
ToWal .000 0.000 0.400 08 0.303 0.027 0.018 o0n. 1.183
(1002 Pdce) 41
AqlUlu 0.000 0.000 4.C66 3.1O 3.24 0.000 o0n. 0.000 11
uwatoik 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.440 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.440
Forery 0.000 0.000 2.01 52 &O6 0. 0.462 0.000 18.210
Feeder Roade 0.000 o0n. 1.10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 o.000 1.120
Projet Maagemewn 0.000 0.000 1.6 0.419 0.000 0.000 000 0.000 2.012
Totd 0.000 0.000 9.996 9.6S6 T75 0.600 0.402 0.000 28L70
UlUoag loca urency nor(Table 1).
VCnsemd u_ng cTe exchan mates (TaMe 111
,I Usng PMBlgI alttr InntatoTable 11).
419112 US ves oveMed to 1962 R. usng th 1061 e_hne rte ot U"-Ra24.6L
40
PAI(ISTAN: Intratd Hil Farminng Devlopmet Prlojet
Fnancil and Eoonomo Analysis
Annex Table 1: Yeawese Projec Costs In Constant(1992) Economic MPss
1984185 1 M 198I 87 198788 198 19890 1S9901 19t91g2 Tota
....... .. ..I.... ................. umlb ................ R. rIl.... ........ ................ ................. .......... .. . ...................
LOCALCURRENCYCOSTS 1/
AQrlulbtre 3.869 11.0S6 16.89 21.29 19.193 160528 11.436 8.224 108.495
Lvitook 0.045 4.906 4.152 5.489 9.330 5.357 6.166 4.140 89.6e7
Foresty 8.514 10.274 19.890 28.229 28.348 31.502 24.874 15.869 160.489
Feeder Roads 0.119 15.178 82,231 17.488 31.311 47.848 34.928 10.996 196.093
Pojet Management 1.092 4.427 8a228 8.18 2.794 2.927 .788 2.092 28.462
TOWal 8.6e 45.807 76.s3s 78.642 W0M76 104.192 81.175 47.817 628.147
FOREN CURRNCY COSTS
Agrieufure 0.000 0.000 4.368 3.610 a824 0.000 0.000 0.000 117
Uv0oAk 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.440 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.440
Frer 0.000 0.000 2.919 229 39 o.66 0.462 0.000 13.210
Feeder Roads 0.000 0.000 1.120 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.120
Project Management 0.000 0.000 1.59a 0.419 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.012
ToWl 0.000 0.000 9.096 s.698 7.5 o."66 0.462 0.000 28.879
TOTALECONOMICCOh STS
Agrkcuur 3a860 11.056 21.252 24.910 22.817 16.652 11.436 8.224 120.002
Lvestock 0.046 4.96 4.1S2 6.928 9.330 5.357 6.155 4.140 40.077
Foresry 3514 10.274 22.758 81.458 32198 32.167 26.330 15.8O 17m8649
Feder Roads 0.119 15.178 38.3s0 17.488 S1.11 47.848 34.923 16.996 197*212
ProjectManagent 1.092 4.427 4.821 8.565 2.794 2.927 3.788 2.092 25.495
ToWal 8.639 46.97 86.384 8.339 sa .5s 104.627 s1.687 47.817 56.52
1/Local curency ots conved to eono value using a CF of 0.9.
PAKISTAN ntegrated NM Farming Development Project
Financia and Eoonomf Analyals
Annex Tabl 14: Eonomic Benefts an osts
YearI Year2 Year$ Yewr4 YearS Yewar Year7 Year8 Ywar0 Yearo V Yri Ysar2 YearI3
........... ................ ................ ................ ................ ................Fl. W I ............ ................ ................ ................ R........... ... ...... . ..
AgrIcultue 11 0.000 3913 8.140 17.009 28326 28.28 32.486 48.08 62.163 63.3S 54.474 6s.000 s8.e
ULatok it 0.000 0.000 1.801 a.02 7204 9.006 10.806 12.607 18.010 21.011 21.611 21.611 21.611
Forestry 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 O.O00 0.000 0.000 4.641 7.038 15.0s
Tatal enft 0.000 8913 9.541 20.67 30.472 37.228 43270 8.862 70.172 74.067 80.725 04.249 68.46
AWIcuure 3.690 11.068 21288 24880 22.786 16.828 11.436 8.224
Lsootock 0.046 4.U6 4.182 62 0.3880 5367 6.165 4.416
Forty 8.614 10.274 22.782 31.416 32.261 32.176 26.328 16.586
Roads 0.119 16.178 33.300 17.488 31.311 47.848 34.828 16.086
ProjetManagement 1.092 4.427 4.836 3.651 2.704 2.027 3.788 2.082
Repa emtand Op. Cots 31 11.1t0 11.180 11.180 11.1S0 11.130
Tota0ota 8.6ea 4ssss 86.417 8S.269 98.492 104.836 81.630 47.317 11.1t0 11.130 11.13 11.130 11.t10
Net Seneft 21 -8.09 -41 086 -76.478 -2.A8 -68o21 -67.00 -s360 9.278 69.042 63.867 69.sss 73.119 82A10
Year 14 Year t6 Yew 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Yer 20 Year 2 Year 22 Year 23 Year 24 Year 26
................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ Ft. m fi ................ ................ .............. ......... ............
AWriultre if 67.10 87.19 87.19 67.19 67.10 87.19 67.19 67.19 57.10 57.19 67.10 67.19
LUvstook 1J 21.1 21.61 21.61 21.61 21.81 21.61 21.61 21.61 21.61 21.61 21.61 21.61
Foresty 2V 36.62 46.6 36.84 6866 49.44 3s.62 46.6e 36.64 63e6 40.44 36.62 4&66
ToaleBfts 115.42 125.36 115.44 132.46 128.24 118.43 128.30 115.44 132.46 128.24 115.43 126M
ReplaomentandOp.Cods 1 11.18 11.18 11.18 11.18 11.13 11.18 11.13 11.13 11.13 11.13 11.13 11.13
TotwiCost 11.13 11.13 11.18 11.13' 11.13 11.13 11.13 11.13 11.13 11.13 11.13 11.13
Notlenelt 21 104.30 114.23 104.31 121.82 117.11 104.30 114.23 104.81 121.32 117.11 104.30 114.23
Eonomio Rate of Aturn: 13.5%
11 60% of remel output of crops and Uvhtook (ble 0).
2 160% of Incemet hwood outA (b 10).
3t An allownoce of 2% d pirojet ooete Der annum have been made for ost ssociatd with a continuation of proect see and
maintenanoe of projec ot nonluding fotes plantatons.) This coforeponds to ete avee of al8icano made In th SAR.