Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FILE %Ou Report No. P-2971a-GM REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF THE GAMBIA FOR AN ENERGY PROJECT October 15, 1981 This document has a restricted distribution and way be used by recipients only In the perfemmece of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank autherlatlon. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit Dalasi (D) US$1.00 D1.80 DI.00 US$0.56 D1.00 Bututs 100 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES EQUIVALENTS Metric British/US l,meter (m) 3.28 feet (ft) 1 kilometer (km) = 0.62 mile (mi) 1 square kilometer (km2) = 0.386 square mile (sq mi) 1 kilogram (kg) 2.2 pounds (lb) 1 metric ton (a ton) - 2.205 pounds (lb) 1 liter (1) 0.26 US gallon (gal) 1 kilovolt (kV) 1,000 volts (V) 1 kilowatt (kw) 1,000 watts (w) 1 kilovolt amperes (kVA) = 1,000 volt-amperes (VA) 1 Megawatt (MW) 1,000 kilowatts (kw) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BADEA = Banque Arabe pour le Developpement Economique de l'Afrique AfDB = African Development Bank CILSS = Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel GPMB = Gambia Produce Marketing Board GTZ = Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit GUC = Gambia Utilities Corporation VfW = Kreditanstalt fur Wiederaufbau ODM = Overseas Development Ministry (UK) UNSO = United Nations Sahelian Office FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY REPUBLIC OF TRE GAMBIA ENERGY PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Republic of The Gambia Beneficiaries: Ministry of Local Government and Lands; Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources; and, The Gambia Utilities Corporation (GUC). Amount: SDR 1.3 million (US$1.5 million equivalent). Terms: Standard; the Government would relend about US$600,000 to GUC at 10.6 percent per annum for 20 years including five years of grace, with GUC bearing the foreign exchange risk. Project Description: The project would assist the Government in developing a strategy for accelerating hydrocarbon exploration in the country and in strengthening the electric power sector. It would also support government's efforts to make better use of its forest resource. The project would include: (a) an exploration promotion component comprising: (i) the retrieval, re-evaluation and test reprocessing of seismic data and the strengthening of the government's geo- logical unit (20 mai-months); (ii) a review of the contractual framework for petroleum exploration and assistance in negotiations with private oil companies (6 man-months); (iii) training of one staff member of the geological unit, and (iv) office and field equipment; (b) a power distribution component that would include investments to improve GUC's distribution network in the Banjul/Kombo/St. Mary area; (c) a forestry component that would help the govern- ment to strengthen the Forestry Department and to develop an energy-related program. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of thei official duties. Its contenst may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. - ii - To be implemented simultaneously, but not included in the project, is an Energy Survey and Master Plan being financed by the United Nations Sudano-Sahelian Office (UNSO), and for which IDA is acting as executing agency. Project Risks: The principal risk is associated with the exploration component given that the data presented to companies may not be attractive enough for them to enter into exploration contracts. In view of the interest of companies in the region and the large potential benefits to the country from an exploitable hydro- carbon discovery, this risk is considered acceptable. Estimated Cost: The cost of the proposed project (net of taxes) is estimated at US$1.7 million equivalent of which US$1.5 million (about 85 percent) would be foreign exchange. A summary cost table is shown below: Foreign Local Total ----US$ million----- Exploration Promotion Component Consultant Services and Data Process. 0.50 0.02 0.52 Training 0.05 0.00 0.05 Office Accommodation and Equipment 0.09 0.01 0.10 Subtotal 0.64 0.03 0.67 Electric Power Component Equipment and Installation 0.38 0.09 0.47 Consultant Services 0.08 0.02 0.10 Subtotal 0.46 0.11 0.57 Forestry Component Consultant Services 0.08 0.02 0.10 Subtotal 0.08 0.02 0.10 Baseline Cost 1.18 0.16 1.34 Physical Contingencies 0.12 0.02 0.14 Price Contingencies 0.20 0.02 0.22 Total Contingencies 0.32 0.04 0.36 TOTAL PROJECT COST 1.50 0.20 1.70 - iii - Financing Plan: Foreign Local Total -----US$ million---- IDA 1.50 - 1.50 Government - 0.20 0.20 TOTAL 1.50 0.20 1.70 Estimated Disbursements: FY82 FY83 FY84 IDA Annual 0.10 0.70 0.70 Cumulative 0.10 0.80 1.50 Rate of Return: N.A. Staff Appraisal Report: N.A. Map: IBRD 15416-R  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF THE GAMBIA FOR AN ENERGY PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposea Development Credit to the Republic of The Gambia for SDR 1.3 million (US l.5 million equivalent) on standard IDA terms to help finance an Energy Project. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. The latest economic report on The Gambia dated December 23, 1980 has been circulated to the Executive Directors. Its conclusions are reflected in the following assessment of the state of the economy, and its prospects. Country data appear in Annex I. The Setting 3. The Republic of The Gambia is a small country with an area of 10,360 square kilometers surrounded on three sides by the Republic of Senegal. The country is extremely flat with a maximum elevation above sea-level of 35 meters. Geographically, it can be divided into three regions. The first is the mangrove belt which borders the river from its mouth to over 240 kilo- meters inland. Lying behind and slightly higher are the "banto faros", swampy areas during the rainy season, some of which are used for rice cultivation. Beyond these swamps stretches the sandstone plateau where most of the crops are grown, primarily groundnuts and millet. 4. The population is predominantly rural. Some 85 percent of the country's 570,000 inhabitants derive their livelihood from agriculture and livestock raising. The urban population is still small but is rapiuly increasing (4.2 percent per year as compared to the national average of 2.8 percent). For a developing country, the population is not particularly young, with children below the age of 15 accounting for 41 percent of total population. Overall .population pressure is high, with a density of aDout 90 per square km of agricultural land. 5. The Gambian economy is dominated by groundnut production which is the country's main source of foreign exchange and is the basis for its major industrial activity of groundnut crushing. Cotton was introduced a long time ago but still represents only a small proportion of agricultural production. The most important food crops are millet, sorghum and rice, the basic staple of the population. Millet is grown in rotation with gruundnuts on light upland soils, while rice is cultivated mainly in the "banto faros". Due to the competition with groundnuts, only about 70 percent of the - 2 - country's food requirements are met by local food production and about 35,000 tons of cereals (mainly rice) have to be imported every year. Livestock is an important but relatively unexploited potential. With an off-take rate of about 6 percent, the subsector contributes less than 3 percent to GDP. 6. Productivity in the rural sector is low. The Gambian farmer experi- ences the same frustrations as his neighbors in the Sahel where rainfall is irregular and the soils poor. His cultivation methods have remained pre- dominantly traditional as his ability to adopt modern techniques is hampered by the absence of formal education and practical training (the literacy rate in the rural areas is virtually nil). The future for Gambian agricultural development is poor, because there is little land which has not yet been cultivated and because agricultural soils are being degraded by high in- tensity land use, also resulting in severe deforestation. 7. Despite the predominance of the rural economy (40 percent of GDP and 80 percent of the working population), The Gambia has a relatively active modern sector: trade and transport have always been important and reflect to a large extent the historic role of The Gambia as an entrepot for Senegal and neighboring countries. Transit trade, linked to the unique geographical situation of The Gambia and to its low import tariffs, is an important source of revenue overall and for the budget. Tourism has also emerged as an im- portant sector during the last 10 years, contributing about 8 percent to GDP and employing 2,700 persons. Public administration is a major sector of the economy accounting for 15 percent of GDP. About 25 percent of the salaried labor force is employed by the Government. Industrial activity is limited to two groundnut oil mills, a soft drink factory and a shoe factory, all located in Banjul. Income per capita of the urban population, estimated at US$550, is about four times higher than that of the rural population and two times the national average estimated at $225 in 1979. Recent Economic Developments 8. In the first decade after Independence (1965), The Gambia under- took three modest development programs, financed over 80 percent by foreign aid. This cautious policy reflected the country's limited absorptive capacity and the need to maintain a careful balance between development outlays and the maintenance of adequate financial reserves to protect the economy against sharp variations in groundnut production and prices. 9. Since the mid-1970s, with the implementation of the First Five-Year Development Plan, a larger investment effort was made to promote economic growth. But, while public investments increased from 6 percent of GDP in 1973/74 to 28 percent in 1978/79, GDP growth only averaged 1 percent per year in constant prices, less than the population growth (2.8 percent per annum), which lowered the average living standard of the population. The drought which struck several times and unfavorable price developments were beyond Government-s control. But, to some extent, the Government was slow in turning its attention to productive sectors. Between 1974/75 and 1978/79, D 95 million (52 percent of total development expenditures) were devoted to transport infrastructure, while the rural sector only received D 36 million. Emphasis - 3 - on transport and communications reflected the availability of foreign assist- ance and the increased absorptive capacity of the sector resulting from the use of foreign contractors for construction work. 10. The high level of public investment during that period was made possible by a substantial increase in foreign assistance. Budgetary savings, however, did not keep pace with the increase in development expenditures and, as a result, a large part of the required counterpart funds had to be financed by the Gambia Produce Marketing Board (GPMB), the state agricultural marketing organization, and by borrowings from the Central Bank. The Central Bank tried to limit the volume of credit extended by the commercial banks to the private sector by raising their minimum liquidity requirements from 5 percent to 20 percent of their financial obligations. This had little effect because of the excessive liquidity of the commercial banks, and credit to the private sector continued to increase unabated. 11. Many public enterprises, set up during the 1970s to promote develop- ment in important sectors of the economy (livestock, fisheries, public utili- ties), also had recourse to bank credit to cover operating losses or to finance investments. GPMB has recently become a borrower, because its financial situation deteriorated following three bad crops and its obligation to contribute to the current budget and the Government's investment program has continued. 12. As a result of these developments, total domestic credit rose by 59 percent in 1977/78 and by a further 48 percent in 1978/79. The resultant increase in imports, coupled with a relatively bad export performance more than offset the improvement in the capital account. The balance of pay- ments registered an overall deficit of D 27.8 million in 1977/78 and D 28.2 million in 1978/79. For the first time since Independence, net foreign reserves declined to a negative position of D 22.2 million in October 1979. 13. Faced with this deterioration in its financial situation, the Government agreed with the IMF on a financial program in support of a stand- by arrangement and a.Trust Fund loan. Efforts are also being made to mobi- lize savings by increasing interest rates on demand and time deposits by 1.5 percentage points. In addition, measures are being considered to redress the situation of certain public enterprises through, where appropriate, adjustments in prices and tariffs, injections of new equity and improvement * in management and accounting capacity to eliminate the need for budgetary subsidies. Basic Development Constraints and Options 14. The Gambia has often been referred to as the "groundnut country", and economic activity depends on the size of this crop and'the price it commands on world markets. The necessity to diversify the economic base is unquestionable. However, the options open to The Gambia are limited. The small size of the local market makes it difficult to establish manufacturing industries for import substitution. It is doubtful that tourism would become important enough to help solve some of the development problems confronting the country. There is presently a growing concern among policy makers in The Gambia over the real benefits derived so far from tourism development: the net foreign exchange earnings are low; the rate of Gambianization in hotels and ancillary facilities has been slow; and Government revenues derived from the sector barely justify the investments made to promote tourism. 15. Given the resource endowment and the size of the country, the agri- cultural sector will remain for years to come the backbone of the Gambian economy. Agricultural productivity, however, must be increased, through higher investments, improvements in extension services, and better credit distribu- tion. New crops and different methods of cultivation such as irrigation are being introduced, but can be developed only gradually as agricultural institu- tions are strengthened. Production and export of groundnuts will therefore continue to be the main determinant of economic growth in the medium term. Medium-Term Prospects 16. The present strategy, as outlined in the 1981-86 Plan, gives high priority to achieving national food self-sufficiency, while ensuring to farmers an income that is steady and free from the effects of unfavorable climatic conditions. To this end, Government plans to make increasingly heavy investments in agriculture, including irrigation developments. However, Government's attempts to implement the stated strategy will have to overcome severe financial and institutional obstacles, as it would raise total planned investment to well over one-third of GDP, and public investment to about 80 percent of this amount. First, the country's absorptive capacity is obviously limited and, in particular, there is no clear evidence that existing institu- tional structures in the rural sector are appropriate to the range of agricul- tural production activities (including input and credit supply, grain storage and marketing) that will have to be pursued. Second, the required volumes of concessionary aid may well not be available, and Government has little scope for borrowing on harder terms, since this would quickly increase debt service obligations to unsustainable levels. 17. In light of these arguments, the Bank believes that Government will be forced to aim at more modest objectives and that total planned investments should probably not exceed 25 percent of GDP. In such an event, and provided that Government can plan and implement effective policies in the vital ground- nut sector, it would still be possible for the country to achieve an economic growth rate of about 5 percent annually over the next Plan period. 18. There is an additional concern in that, even if Government can be persuaded to make significant cuts in the investment program, the domestic savings performance will remain a problem. In the recent past, Government contributed on average not more than 15 percent to the financing of public sector projects. This implied a mediocre savings performance which has been difficult to strengthen because the tax base was expanding only slightly, while the needs for recurrent expenditures particularly in agriculture, road maintenance, health, and education, continued to increase. This unfavorable public finance situation is likely to persist over the 1981-86 Plan period. - 5 - 19. In view of The Gambia's poverty and the development constraints as outlined above, there will be a continuing need for large inflows of external aid. Foreign donors would be expected to continue providing financial assist- ance on the same very favorable terms as in the past, and to meet a high pro- portion of total project costs, including a substantial share of local cost financing in appropriate cases. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN THE GAMBIA 20. To date the Bank Group has financed seven operations in The Gambia totalling US$27.4 million of which US$17.8 million had been disbursed as of May 31, 1981. A US$2.1 million credit in FY70 (187-GM) helped rehabili- tate the port of Banjul, vital for a country so dependent on foreign trade; due to a sharp increase in construction costs after project approval, a US$ 2.4 million supplementary credit was added in FY74. The second operation (FY73) involved a US$1.3 million credit (333-GM) for the irrigation of 3,000 ha of rice and preparation of a follow-up project. A third project for which a US$4.0 million credit (602-GM) was made in FY76, focuses on the development of the tourism sector; it also aims at improving public utilities in Banjul and its suburbs (para. 38 et seq). Also in FY76 IDA approved a credit of US$4.1 million (644-GM) for a Rural Development Project, co-financed by 0DM and BADEA--aimed at improving agricultural extension services and transport and marketing infrastructure, and providing training and agricultural credit for farmers. Two projects were approved in FY78: a US$5.5 million Education Credit (792-GM) to improve secondary education, strengthen educational planning and administration, expand the training of skilled workers, and upgrade middle level managers, and a US$3 million credit (814-GM) for a Rural and Urban Enter- prise Project to stimulate further development in agriculture, agro-industries, small-scale enterprises and housing construction. Finally, IDA approved in 1979 a US$5.0 million credit (897-GM) for a Highway Maintenance Project as a first phase of a longer range maintenance program to improve inland transport infrastructure. Notes on the execution of ongoing projects are in Annex II. 21. Our past operations have focused on four main objectives: a) development of agriculture which remains the country's major economic acti- vity; b) diversification of economic activity and foreign exchange earning opportunities through development of tourism and small and medium-scale enterprises; (c) establishment of infrastructure and services essential to * support these activities; and (d) improvement of manpower training to expand the country's absorptive capacity. Moreover, we have included in each project an important technical assistance component to assist in strengthening the government administration and public institutions. Project implementation has been generally satisfactory. While weak management has caused delays in some projects, the Government has been scrupulous in providing project financing when needed and making efforts to solve implementation problems. The Bank's strategy, which is in accordance with policies being formulated by the Govern- ment under its Second Five-Year Plan (1981-1986), will remain essentially the same. Thus we are preparing follow-up projects in agriculture, infrastructure (port and highway maintenance), education, and the small and medium enterprise - 6 - sector. The proposed Energy Project would expand this strategy by strengthen- ing the government administration concerned with energy planning and oil exploration and would also continue our efforts, started under the Infrastruc- ture and Tourism Project, to improve the power sector. PART III - THE ENERGY SECTOR Energy Resources, Supply and Demand 22. The Gambia's energy endowment is modest. The nation's once abundant forests are being depleted through over cutting, brush fires, and increased farming and grazing to accommodate a rapidly growing population. There is no firm evidence yet of the existence of hydrocarbons but there is some possibility of economically exploitable oil and gas deposits offshore based on limited past exploration and geophysical inference. The country is very flat, with a maximum elevation above sea level of 120 feet which precludes major hydro- electric potential. No coal, oil shale, or uranium deposits have been dis- covered. Shells from the groundnut crop are presently being used for fuel at the groundnut processing plant and it is planned to substitute groundnut shell briquettes for charcoal. Although the potential for wind power is limited to the coast, the solar regime appears to be favorable. 23. The Gambian economy is based on agriculture and service activities which are not particularly energy intensive, and in this respect Gambia has suffered less than the other countries from the shock of recent increases in oil prices. The energy used in agriculture and in activities in the service sector is almost entirely wood based. Nearly all rural households and a majority of urban households cook with wood or charcoal. Energy consump- tion, estimated at 244 kg of oil equivalent per capita, has grown by about four percent per annum during the 1970s. Locally produced wood and charcoal are estimated to account for 75 percent of the total energy consumption with imported petroleum products meeting the balance. The import of petroleum products, however, has grown by about 15 percent per annum since 1973/74 and amounted to 50,000 tons in 1977/78, and cost the economy over $11.0 million. Power facilities consist of seven non-interconnected grids serving Banjul and six other urban areas, supplied by diesel generators. Institutions B 24. The Ministry of Local Government and Lands is responsible for mineral production, including petroleum exploration (para. 29 et seq). The import of petroleum products is handled by four private oil companies, with the Ministry of Finance and Trade regulating the price of petroleum products through negotiation with the companies (para. 27). The Ministry 'was also responsible for setting a suggested retail price for charcoal prior to its ban (para. 46). The Gambia Utilities Corporation (GUC) is a government-owned company respon- sible for the generation and supply of electricity as well as providing water and sewerage services (para. 35 et seq). The Department of Forestry within the newly created Ministry of Water Resources and Environment oversees the use - 7 - of forestry resources, including firewood and charcoal. It manages the nation's forest lands, enforces legislation to prevent the felling of certain trees, and supervises reforestation. The Gambia is an active member of the Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) which is involved in programs to prevent deforestation. Finally, the Ministry of Economic Planning and Industrial Development is responsible for energy planning in the country. The Main Energy Sub-Sectors and Sectoral Issues 25. The main issues in the energy sector relate to an absence of basic data, a shortage of qualified personnel, inadequate investment and poor coordination among relevant government agencies. As a result, the Government is not in a position to fully evaluate the country's energy resources, analyze and choose between development options, or prepare and implement plans and policies in the energy sector. The Petroleum Sub-Sector 26. The demand for petroleum products is satisfied entirely through imports from the Middle East. The import, storage, distribution and sales of petroleum products in The Gambia is handled by Shell, BP, Mobil and Texaco. Sales of gasoline and diesel fuel (7.0 million gallons and 6.9 million gallons respectively in 1977/78) have been increasing by approximately 15 percent per annum since 1974, while that of kerosene has been declining from a peak of 1.6 million gallons in 1975/76 to 1.3 in 1977/78. The large increases in the sale of petroleum products, particularly diesel fuel, can be attributed to the sub- stantial increase in electric power generating capacity in The Gambia outside the GUC network (para. 39), the rapid growth in the tourist industry, which places a heavy demand on transportation and the 7 percent per annum increase in the volume of imports of passenger vehicles. The decline in the sales of kerosene may partly reflect the substitution of kerosene by use of bottled gas which has grown from almost zero in 1975 to an estimated 32,000 bottles (400 tons) in 1980. Excluding bottled gas, gasoline represents 46 percent of petroleum products consumption, diesel fuel another 46 percent while kerosene accounts for the remaining 8 percent. 27. The retail prices of petroleum products, which vary between US$2.40 and US$2.75 a gallon, are negotiated semi-annually between the oil companies and the Ministry of Finance based on a formula covering various cost elements, * taxes and profit. Although in the past the Government has granted the compa- nies the requests for price increases, it is planning to study the formula more closely within the UNSO financed, IDA executed Energy Survey and Master Plan study (para. 47). The prices charged reflect the current international cost of importing petroleum products and are in line with those charged in neighboring countries. Since 1979, the price of gasoline has been increased by 60 percent and that of kerosene and diesel oil by 80 percent. 28. Petroleum imports have become a growing burden on The Gambia's balance of payments. In 1973/74, oil imports represented a little over 3 percent of total exports. In 1977/78, this percentage is estimated to have - 8 - increased to over 16 percent of exports. In the years ahead, petroleum imports are likely to absorb a growing share of the country's export earnings, even assuming that future growth in petroleum demand would be considerably lower than it has been in the recent past. This would have a serious effect on Gambia's capacity to finance its development program, particularly if groundnut exports do not recover rapidly from their present depressed levels. Institutional and Legal Frameworks for Petroleum Exploration 29. Responsibility for petroleum exploration and exploitation rests with the Geological Unit of the Ministry of Local Government and Lands. It has a total staff of 10 persons and is headed by a senior geologist. While the head of the unit is an academically qualified professional, neither he nor the rest of the staff have much experience nor firsthand knowledge of the industry. The unit's budget covers mostly the salaries of its staff. Due to these limitations, the unit has not been in a position to acquire geological information or even to monitor the work of foreign private petroleum explora- tion companies. Recently the unit acquired the services for one year of a qualified expatriate geologist through a Canadian bilateral program, and the situation has improved somewhat. 30. The relevant legislation governing the petroleum industry is the Mining (Mineral Oil) Act of 1954 as amended, the Income Tax Act and the Development Act of 1973 which regulates all foreign investment in The Gambia. The Mining Act empowers the Minister of Local Government and Lands to issue licenses, leases and regulations governing licenses and leases and provides penalties for breach of regulations. There are three types of licenses or leases granted: (i) oil exploration licenses granted for an initial 2-year term with a possible one year renewal and covering surface exploration activi- ties; (ii) oil prospecting licenses granted for an initial 4-year term with three possible successive one year extensions over 75 percent of the initial permit area, and (iii) oil mining leases for development/production of hydro- carbons granted for a 30-year period with a possible renewal of up to 30 years. Minimum fees are charged for the issue of exploration licenses, and a licensee is required to make minimum expenditures, either on seismic surveys or drill- ing. Production royalties are 12.5 percent on oil and condensate from onshore or from territorial waters. The royalty on all natural gas is 5 percent. 31. The general terms of the petroleum leases and licenses are contained in the regulations to the Mining Act and can be modified without amending the law. Although the basic structure of the regulations is sound, several areas need revision such as: the financial provisions, minimum work and expenditure provisions; the extent and scope of ministerial discretion in setting license terms and conditions; and, the provisions for ensuring stability of license terms. The Government has requested that the proposed project include assistance for a review and redraft of the regulations to the Mining Act. Exploration History 32. Gambia's sedimentary area covers about 18,000 km2 (10,000 km2 on- shore, and 8,000 km2 offshore) and is totally enclaved in Senegal. Oil companies have been engaged in exploration in The Gambia since 1956. Five - 9 - companies have held permits (see Annex IV and Chart). As a result of their exploration efforts, about 5,000 km of seismic lines have been shot and three wells drilled; two onshore in 1960 by British Petroleum (BP) and one offshore in early 1979 by Chevron, all of them dry. The onshore wells were drilled on structures that were not sufficiently well defined and did not benefit from the seismic techniques available today. The offshore well was drilled on a large structure in 700 m of water. Although it encountered potential source rocks and reservoirs, the organic matter in the source rock was immature. At present only Societe Nationale Elf Aquitaine (SNEA) is active under an oil exploration license, which expires in 1982, covering the onshore and continental shelf areas. SNEA is planning to conduct a seismic reflection survey of the shallow offshore and rivers and some onshore geophysical work, but is not committed to drilling a well. 33. Information gathered during past exploratory work together with that available in Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, suggests that the geology of the basin is quite complex and that, while the negative results of the recently completed well downgrade the petroleum prospects of The Gambia's continental slope, the potential of the continental shelf and coastal margin area merits further work. Government Approach to Hydrocarbon Exploration 34. The Government attaches high priority to the development of its do- mestic energy resources, and in particular to increasing petroleum exploration. Several companies have made inquiries about concessions in The Gambia to follow SNEA-s relinquishments in 1982. The Government has decided upon a systematic approach to attracting companies to undertake further exploration. Under the proposed project it would employ consultants: (i) to collect, compile and re- interpret existing geological and geophysical data in order to assess the country's petroleum potential; and, (ii) to bring the legal and contractual framework in line with industry practice and the country's potential. The Electric Power Sub-Sector 35. The generation and distribution of electricity in The Gambia is the responsibility of the Gambia Utilities Corporation (GUC), a Government- owned company that took over the management and operation of the water and power utilities from the Ministry of Works and Communications in 1972. In recent years GUC has taken on more responsibilities such as the sale of bottled gas and the eventual operation of sewerage and sewage treatment facilities presently under construction in the Kotu resort area and in the capital city of Banjul. 36. GUC is governed by a Board of Directors of eight members represent- ing Government, parastatal and private interests. Its organization consists of a head office, a Power Division and a Water Division. Its staff of about 600 includes only a few members with the experience and training required for the operation of an efficient utility. 37. The power facilities of GUC consist of seven non-interconnected space grids; the major system supplies the Banjul-Kombo-St Mary area; the others supply six small towns in the provinces. The Banjul area is fed - 10 - from the Half Die power station, whose original base load capacity consisted of three 2.2 MW diesel units before the severe breakdown of November 1977 (para. 39). Distribution is mainly by overhead lines including 25 miles of 11 kV primary lines and some 30 miles of 400/230 V secondary lines. The Tourism and Infrastructure Credit (602-GM) 38. In 1975, GUC was the major beneficiary of the Tourism and Infra- structure Project, financed jointly by IDA, KfW and AfDB. The project in- cluded inter alia an expansion of the water supply and electric power systems serving the Banjul-Kombo-St. Mary area to meet new demand resulting from tourism development and urban growth. The water component (financed by KfW) included development of a new water field. The power component (financed by AfDB) included a 3 MW diesel generator originally intended to be located at Half Die (but eventually installed at Kotu), equipping of three substations and construction of 33 and 11 kV transmission lines. The sewerage component together with funds for the Assistant Managing Director of GUC and fitter mechanics for the power station were financed by IDA. The project also provided for the recruitment of an Accounting Advisor (on the job since 1976), as well as key personnel for the commissioning and operation of the enlarged water system. 39. The extended water-supply system was commissioned in September 1980. The power component ran into delays and difficulties after an explosion at Half Die in November 1977 destroyed one existing 2.2 MW generating set and badly damaged another. Although the Government attempted to remedy the damage caused by the explosion by obtaining financing for additional small generating sets, the lack of spare parts and qualified technical staff caused a series of further breakdowns and power supply has remained unreliable. The available Half Die generating capacity now consists of five 0.8 MW sets, 60% of that in 1977. It is only this year that adequate generating capacity will be restored through commissioning of the new Kotu power station (para. 41). In the mean- time, unfortunately, electricity sales have steadily declined because large commercial and industrial users have been forced to install their own generat- ing systems to maintain supply during the prolonged periods of load shedding or outages of GUC equipment. GUC's Financial Situation 40. This crisis had a serious financial impact on GUC, which has been unable to meet the rate of return and debt limitation covenants under the Tourism and Infrastructure Project. Despite three increases which doubled tariffs between September 1976 and August 1979, GUC had negative rates of return in 1978 and 1979, mainly attributable to losses of revenue through generator breakdowns, inefficient power generation and distribution, and fuel oil price increases which brought fuel costs from 40 percent of GUC's operating expenses in 1975 to a forecast 60 percent in 1980. Neither was GUC able to meet its debt service covenant because the Government obliged it to take on additional debt for the construction of the new Kotu Power Station (1979-1981) and to buy four diesel generators (1980). Meanwhile, the finan- cial relations between GUC and the Government have become entangled; on the one hand, the Government paid for large generator repairs and fuel bills; on - 11 - the other, it has not paid for GUC's 1976 losses (Dalasis 1.9 million or US$1 million), a requirement under the Tourism ana Infrastructure Credit, and has also not paid amounts due by various Government bodies for water and electricity services. GUC's Prospects 41. A long-term solution to the generation problem will be achieved shortly with the commissioning in April-May 1981 of a new Kotu power station. Construction of this plant was committed after the 1977 explosion at Half-Die power station before any of the equipment financed by AfDB as part of the Tourism and Infrastructure Project had been installed. The 3 1W set to be financed by AfDB was then still being manufactured. Followinb the advice of its consultants, GUC decided to install this set plus an additional one of the same capacity, also AfDB-financed, in a new power station at Kotu connectea by a 33 kV line to Half Die station. The installed capacity of this system will be 10 MW of which 7.0 MW can be considered firm which will be adequate to meet the 1981 peak demand estimated at 5.5 MW. Expansion of its generating capacity, together with a third set scheduled to be in operation in 1982, will meet GUCs generating needs, but difficulties remain relating to distribution facilities, personnel and financial management. The proposed project would address these problems. 42. The above crisis diverted the attention of GUC's scarce management personnel away from the problems affecting the distribution system, which have reached serious proportions. The two 11 kV overhead feeder lines supplying Banjul with power from the Half Die station are loaded to their thermal limit. The existing substation switchgears were installed in the early 1950s and are obsolete--the equipment in at least one substation is overloaded during peak load periods. Voltage levels in many areas are unacceptably low due to many new consumers having been connected over several years without any system reinforcement. Many of the existing low voltage lines are not designed to carry the increasing loads, resulting in high system losses. System break- downs are frequent and the faults cannot be speedily located because of a lack of switching points. Large numbers of consumers are also affected by scheduled interruptions during maintenance work or while new consumers are being connected. These problems are such that, unless remedied urgently, they would reduce GUC's ability to provide adequate service to its customers and would endanger its financial recovery. The Government has therefore requested inclusion of a distribution component in the proposed project to rehabilitate the present inadequate system (para. 50(b)). 43. The effectiveness of the technical assistance program for GUC has been hampered by financial problems and a shortage of counterpart staff for training, although the situation has recently improved. The German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) has been requested to provide'technical assist- ance for the operations of the Kotu power station. In order to design better its assistance, GTZ is financing a review of GUC's management and organization in order to identify in detail its technical assistance and training needs. The Government will consult with the Association on the GTZ study's findings prior to finalizing a program for its implementation. - 12 - 44. The financial situation of GUC is expected to improve significant- ly as soon as a reliable power supply ensures recovery of revenues. To reinforce this recovery, Government and GUC have approved a Financial Recovery Plan, acceptable to the Association (Annex V), which includes: a settlement of accounts between GUC and the Government (para. 40); further contribution to GUC's equity by the Government; compensation by the Government of GUC's losses on the provincial systems; and, the setting of appropriate power tariff levels. Implementation of the Financial Recovery Plan would be a condition of effectiveness (Section 6.01(b) of the Development Credit Agreement). Because of its recent problems GUC will be unable to achieve the 8 percent rate of return targets for power as set in Credit 602-GM for FYs 81 and 82. It is proposed, however, to maintain the covenant from FY83. Because of delays in implementation of the Tourism and Infrastructure Project, the sewerage rate of return covenant in Credit 602-GM, now set for FY81, would be maintained from FY83 to allow for completion of works. No change is proposed in the financial targets for GUC's water service included in Credit 602-GM. Other covenants are also maintained. Assurances have been obtained that: (i) GUC would set tariffs for its power and sewerage services at a level adequate to achieve an 8 percent rate of return on currently valued net fixed assets in operation by 1983 (Section 4.03 of the Project Agreement); (ii) GUC would not incur any long term debt unless its current adjusted revenues are equal to at least 1.6 times its future maximum debt service (Section 4.04 of the Project Agreement); (iii) Government would fully compensate GUC for the losses from operation of the provincial power and water supply systems (Section 4.02 of the Development Credit Agreement); and (iv) the appointment of the Managing Director of GUC would be subject to prior consultation with IDA (Section 4.03 of the Development Credit Agreement). The Forestry Sub-Sector 45. At the beginning of this century, most of The Gambia was covered with heavy forests and woodland. Clearing was limited to agriculture and fallow land necessary to support the small rural population. Since 1900, however, a six-fold increase in population together with growth in farm lands and associated cattle production has seriously depleted forest resources. The Gambia, now the fifth most densely populated country in Africa, is threatened with severe deforestation, drastic shortages in wood supplies, soil erosion, impoverishment of pasture land (especially around watering points) and increas- ing vulnerability to drought. The wooded area remaining now covers about 350,000 ha. While present wood consumption is estimated at 900,000 m3 per annum, and is expected to rise to 1,500,000 m3 by the year 2000, the mean annual increment of wood available is estimated to average 350,000 m3. If present trends continue, The Gambia's forestry resources will be exhausted by the end of the century. 46. The Government's forestry policy reflects its awareness of the problem and seeks the following: - 13 - (a) Strengthening forestry institutions and improving forestry planning. Due to the lack of staff, means and supporting materials, the forestry institutions are weak. Assistance is needed to improve the capability of the Forestry Department to, inter alia, develop energy-related programs. (b) Reduction in wood consumption. Wood burning is a more efficient way of using wood energy than charcoal provided that transport of the wood, heavier than charcoal, does not require long distances. In The Gambia, where such distances are short, the Government has already banned the production and sale of charcoal, which should reduce wood consumption by about 30 percent. The Government would like to further reduce wood consumption through the use of improved, more efficient wood stoves and the use of wood substitutes. (c) Improving management of forest cover and creation of fast-growing, state-managed and rural tree plantations. Modest scale pilot reforestation programs are being implemented. Further assistance is needed, however, to formulate a full-scale program of reforestation based on data available from these pilot schemes. Two projects financed respectively by USAID (US$1.6 million) and GTZ (US$2.5 million) are underway to support the above Government policy on a pilot basis. Given the magnitude of the problem faced by the Forestry Department, additional assistance is needed which the proposed project would begin to provide. Overall Sector Strategy 47. Faced with increasing problems in the energy field because of a narrow resource base, a lack of plans, policies and personnel, the Govern- ment wishes to minimize the cost of energy inputs to the economy, both in terms of investment and import requirement. As a first step, it is there- fore carrying out, with the assistance of consultants, a comprehensive Energy Survey and Master Plan. Initially, this was to have been included in the proposed project but, for reasons principally of timing, it is being imple- mented separately by the UNSO with the Bank acting as executing agency. The study is expected to be completed in the autumn of 1981 and its results included in the second national economic five year plan (1981-85). The Govern- ment also recognizes the urgent need for: (a) developing a strategy to accel- erate petroleum exploration in the country; (b) strengthening the power sector; and, (c) developing and expanding programs in the forestry sector. In view of The Gambia's limited energy resources, any commercial discovery of hydrocarbons, however small, would have an important impact on the country's economy. In the power sector, the public sector's large investments would be wasted unless solutions are found to GUC's management and financial problems and unless minor, though urgent, improvements are made in the distribution network. Progressive desertification warrants an increase in activities in the forestry sector. IDA's role would be to support: (i) the Government's rational approach to energy planning; (ii) the promotion of The Gambia's hydrocarbon potential; (iii) the long-term strengthening of GUC; and (iv) the Government's efforts to make better use of renewable energy resources. - 14 - PART IV - THE PROJECT Introduction 48. The proposed project was identified during the visit of an IDA mission to The Gambia in April 1980 and appraised in September 1980. Credit negotiations were held in Washington, D.C. on June 1 and 2, 1981. The Gambian delegation was headed by Dr. Ayo Langley, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Economic Planning and Industrial Development. A credit and project summary appears at the beginning of this report, and a supplementary project data sheet is given in Annex III. There is no Staff Appraisal Report. Project Objectives 49. Consistent with the objectives defined above (para. 47), the project would: (a) strengthen the Geological Unit-s capacity to evaluate and interpret available geological and geophysical data; (b) assist the Government in promoting the country's hydro- carbon potential and in negotiating exploration contracts with oil companies; (c) improve the electric power distribution network, and (d) assist the forestry sector in strengthening its institutions and developing an energy-related program. Project Description 50. The project would include the following components: (a) Exploration Promotion (i) exploration component About sixteen man-months of services of exploration consultants (including an explorationist, a geophysicist and other experts on short-term assignments) to assist in: a. retrieving, compiling and integrating existing geological and geophysical data; b. test reprocessing of seismic data; c. providing the petroleum potential information to oil companies; d. negotiating exploration contracts; and e. monitoring the activities of operating companies. - 15 - (ii) legal consultants About six man-months of advice by a legal firm to review the legal and contractual framework for petroleum exploration and to assist in negotiations with companies; (iii) training Each consultant would be responsible for on-the-job training of designated staff of the Geological Unit. One Gambian already identified would be provided specialized geological training abroad; (iv) office and field equipment The Geological Unit would be provided with the equipment necessary to support the work of the consultants, including storage and repro- duction equipment, vehicles and a modest expansion of office space. (v) Basin study (4 man-months) The Gambia shares a single basin with Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. To fully understand the geology of the basin, the relevant geo- logical and geophysical data from the three countries needs to be integrated in a basin wide study. The proposed credit would finance The Gambia-s share in such a study. Guinea-Bissau's share is being financed under Credit 1095 GUB. Senegal has requested World Bank assistance for the compilation, review and interpretation of its geological and geophysical data. The basin study would take place in 1983 by which time the basic work is expected to have been completed in the three countries. The consultants for the basin study would be acceptable to the three Governments (para. 55). Each Government would enter into a contract with the consultants and supply them with the available data. After the study each Government would receive a basin report and a separate country report. (b) Power Distribution Component The power distribution component would optimize distribution from the two power stations serving the Banjul area, enhance transformer capacity, reduce the risks in overloaded circuits, improve substation safety and limit voltage fluctuations. It would enable GUC to make better use of investments already made in the sector. Specific improvements in the Banjul-Kombo-Saint Mary area would include: (i) reinforcement of the 11kV network in Banjul by a'new 11kV overhead feeder from Half Die to Southwest Banjul; (ii) installation of one pole mounted 100 kVA and one ground mounted 300 kVA substation in Banjul; installation of a 200 kVA transformer and a 100 kVA transformer in the Kombos; - 16 - (iii) minor improvements to seven substations in the Banjul-Kombo-St. Hary area; (iv) reinforcement and replacement of low voltage circuits and extension of the power supply to the water boreholes; and, (v) installation of 11 kV air break isolating switches. (c) Assistance to Forestry This component would include consultancy services and equipment needed to prepare a program for efficient management of forestry resources. The details of the program to be financed will be finalized with the assistance of the Association during project implementation. Cost Estimates and Financing Plan 51. The total cost of the proposed project, net of duties and taxes, is estimated at US$1.7 million equivalent, of which US$1.5 million, or 88 per- cent, is foreign exchange. The cost estimates include physical contingencies of 10 percent. Price contingencies have been included based on an increase of 9 percent for 1981 and 8 percent per annum for 1982, 1983 and 1984. Total contingencies amount to about US$0.4 million, or 27 percent of baseline cost estimates. Estimated costs by project component are given in the Credit and Project summary. The cost per man month of consulting services is esti- mated at US$15,000 for short-term petroleum consultants, US$5,000 for long- term power-engineering assistance to GUC, and US$7,000 for short-term forestry consultants, including travel, subsistence and overhead. This is acceptable, taking into account the high level of specialized expertise involved and costs prevailing in the petroleum, forestry and power sectors. The proposed IDA credit of US$1.5 million equivalent would finance the foreign exchange com- ponent. Local costs estimated at US$200,000 would be financed by the Govern- ment. About US$600,000 of the credit would be on-lent to GUC at 10.6 percent per annum for 20 years including 5 years of grace with GUC bearing the foreign exchange risk. The Government would enter into a subsidiary loan agreement with GUC satisfactory to the Association (Section 3.01(c) of the Development Credit Agreement). The project would be exempt from taxes and duties. Project Implementation 52. A project coordinating unit consisting of a Project Coordinator, and support staff will be established in the Ministry of Economic Planning and Industrial Development (MEPID) to serve as a counterpart to the consultants carrying out the Energy Survey and Master Plan. The unit would also coordinate the implementation of the exploration promotion and forestry components of the proposed project and employ staff whose qualifications would be acceptable to the Association (Section 3.02 of the Development Credit Agreement). The unit would work in close collaboration with the Geological Unit of the Ministry of Local Government and Lands which would implement the exploration promotion component and with the Forestry Department of the Ministry of Water Resources and Environment which would implement the forestry component. Exploration, - 17 - legal and forestry consultants are expected to be employed by the end of 1981. The Geological Unit in the Ministry of Local Government and Lands would select the trainee for overseas training also by the end of 1981. 53. The power distribution component would be implemented by GUC (Section 3.01(b) of the Development Credit Agreement and Section 2.01 of the Project Agreement). GUC would undertake the installation of equipment as well as the modifications and reinforcements to its network using its own labor force and with the assistance of an expatriate consulting engineer to be employed before December 31, 1981 for a period of 2 years (Section 3.02 of the Project Agreement). The equipment would be procured within six months of credit effectiveness and would take two years to install. The project is expected to be completed by June 30, 1984. Procurement and Disbursement 54. Given the urgent nature of the investments and the small amount involved, contracts for the power distribution equipment (estimated to cost US$380,000) would be awarded on the basis of limited international tendering. Contracts for the Geological Unit's equipment and vehicles (estimated at US$50,000) would be procured through competitive bidding following local advertising procedures, which are acceptable to the Association. The con- struction contract for the Geological Unit's facilities (estimated at about US$50,000) would be awarded following local competitive bidding. The consul- tants would be acceptable to the Borrower and the Association and would be employed on terms and conditions satisfactory to the Association (Section 3.03 of the Development Credit Agreement and Section 3.02 of the Project Agreement). Disbursements would be fully documented. 55. The proposed IDA Credit would be disbursed as follows: (a) civil works--85 percent of expenditures (US40,000); (b) the supply of plant and equipments to GUC--100 percent of foreign expenditures and 50 percent of local expenditures (US$380,000); (c) the supply of vehicles and equipment for the exploration and forestry components-100 percent of foreign expenditures and 50 percent of local expenditures (US$50,000); (d) consultant services: (i) for the basin study-100 percent of foreign expenditures (US$50,000); (ii) for GUC-100 percent of foreign expenditures (US$90,000); (iii) other than for the basin study or for GUC-100 percent of foreign expenditures (US$520,000); and (e) training--100 percent of foreign expenditures (US$50,000). About US$320,000 would remain unallocated. A condition of disbursement for the forestry component would be Government's submission of a program and equipment list satisfactory to the Association (para. 4 of Schedule 1 to the - 18 - Development Credit Agreement). A condition of disbursement for the basin study would be (para. 4 of Schedule 1 to the Development Credit Agreement): (a) the availability of satisfactory geological and geophysical data for the portion of the basin owned by Senegal and Guinea-Bissau; and (b) arrangements satisfactory to the Association having been made between Senegal, The Gambia and Guinea-Bissau for implementing the basin study including contractual arrangements with consultants. The proceeds of the credit are expected to be fully disbursed within three and a half years of effectiveness. Accounting, Auditing and Reporting 56. The Project Unit would keep separate accounts for exploration pro- motion and forestry components. These accounts would be audited by external auditors acceptable to the Government and the Association. GUC would keep separate accounts for each of its power, water and sewerage services (Sections 4.01 and 4.02 of the Project Agreement). These accounts would continue to be audited by GUC's auditors (Pannell Fitzpatrick and Co.) who are acceptable to the Bank. Cost control procedures instituted by GUC are working satisfac- torily. GUC and the Project Unit would submit audit reports to the Associa- tion no later than six months after the close of the fiscal year. The Project Unit and GUC would submit quarterly and annual reports on implementation of the project in a format acceptable to the Association. They would also submit a project completion report not later than six months after the Closing Date. Project Benefits and Risks 57. The most immediate benefit from the exploration promotion component is that the retrieval and re-evaluation of the geological and geophysical data, together with the revision of the legal and contractual framework, would permit the Government to negotiate exploration contracts containing work commitments commensurate with the country's potential. Any ensuing exploitable hydrocarbon discovery would have a significant positive impact on the country's economy. The short-term risk associated with this component is that the data presented to companies may not be attractive enough for them to enter into exploration contracts. In view of the interest of some companies thus far, this risk is acceptable. The longer term risk is that, even if exploration were undertaken, no exploitable reserves might be found. This risk is substantial, but is also acceptable because of the large benefits that would accrue if an exploitable find were made. 58. The power distribution component is a least cost solution that would enable GUC to fully utilize its generating capacity. It would also be instrumental in solving a number of important problems relating to the utility's financial health and management that have troubled it since it was established. Resolution of these problems would also have a significant beneficial effect on the tourism and other sectors important to the economy. The forestry component would help the Government to strengthen the Forestry Department and to develop an energy-related program. - 19 - PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 59. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of The Gambia and the Association, the draft Project Agreement between the Republic of The Gambia and The Gambia Utilities Corporation, and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1(d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 60. The draft Development Credit Agreement conforms to the usual pattern of agreements on petroleum exploration promotion projects. Special features of the draft Development Credit and Project Agreements are referred to in the text and listed in Section III of Annex III to this report. A special condition of effectiveness would be the implementation by GUC and the Borrower of GUC's Financial Recovery Plan. 61. I am satisfied that the proposed Development Credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 62. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Development Credit. A.W. Clausen President Attachments Washington, D.C. October 15, 1981 - 20 - ANNEX I TA4LE .A '"age 1 of 5 pages GAMBIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET GAMBIA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVElAGES LAND AREA (THOUSAND Sq. KM.) - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE)' TOTAL 11.3 AGRICULTURAL 6.0 MUST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 lb 1970 lb ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 60.0 100.0 250.0 238.3 794.2 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 28.5 52.3 124.5 70.5 707.3 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, MID-YEAR (THOUSANDS) 327.0 449.0 587.0 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 12.4 15.0 18.1 17.5 27.7 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 1.0 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 3.0 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2135 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KM. 28.9 39.7 51.9 27.7 55.0 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 55.0 75.0 96.0 73.7 130.7 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 42.8 44.0 44.3 44.8 46.0 15-64 YRS. 54.2 53.1 52.6 52.4 51.2 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.8 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 2.0 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.8 URBAN 3.6 5.1 5.0 6.5 5.1 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 47.8 46.7 47.5 46.9 46.9 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 26.2 23.1 22.4 19.3 15.8 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. 1.0 2.1 USERS (PERCENT OF HARRIED WOMEN) .. .. FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 101.0 98.0 72.0 89.5 89.9 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 91.0 99.0 97.0 90.2 92.3 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 52.0 56.0 55.0 52.7 52.8 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 10.0 13.0 13.0 17.8 16.1 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 40.6 34.7 32.8 27.3 20.2 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 37.5 40.4 41.7 45.8 50.8 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) .. 217.0/c ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 12.0 .. 23.9 27.4 URBAN .. 97.0 .. 55.0 74.3 RURAL .. 3.0 .. 18.5 12.6 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. .. 26.2 URBAN .. .. .. 63.5 RURAL .. .. .. 20.3 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 21800.0 22894.7 13170.7 31911.8 13844.1 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON .. 4065.0 3941.6 3674.9 2898.6 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 834./d .. 816.9 1238.8 1028.4 URBAN .. .. 172.3 272.8 423.0 RURAL .. .. 3935.5 1745.2 3543.2 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. 8.3/c URBAN .. 6.1 .. RURAL .. 9.o7 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL URBAN RURAL ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL URBAN RURAL - 21 - TABLE 3A AlIEX I GAMBIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET Page 2 of 5 pages GAMBIA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVE GES - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE)t MOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 12.0 24.0 37.0 56.4 73.7 MALE 17.0 33.0 50.0 70.7 96.8 FEMALE 8.0 14.0 24.0 50.1 79.0 SECONDARY: TOTAL 3.0 7.0 12.0 10.0 16.2 MALE 4.0 11.0 17.0 13.6 25.3 FEMALE 2.0 4.0 7.0 6.6 14.8 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (% OF SECONDARY) 1.4 3.6 5.3 8.0 5.3 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 31.0 27.0 26.0 46.5 36.2 SECONDARY 19.0 20.0 17.0 25.5 23.6 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 6.0/d .. 10.0 25.5 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 3.0 6.5 .. 2.9 32.3 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 6.1 111.3 113.3 32.8 69.0 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. .. .. 1.9 8.0 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 5.0 .. .. 2.8 20.2 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA .. .. .. 1.2 0.7 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 169.1 218.9 271.1 FEMALE (PERCENT) 46.8 46.2 45.5 34.1 36.7 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 85.0 82.0 79.1 80.0 56.6 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 7.0 8.0 8.9 8.6 17.5 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 51.7 48.7 46.2 41.7 37.2 MALE 56.2 53.5 51.1 54.3 47.1 FEMALE 47.4 44.2 41.4 29.2 27.5 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 136.0 381.2 RURAL .. .. 95.0 84.5 156.2 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 185.0 99.1 334.3 RURAL .. .. 90.0 61.2 137.6 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. .. 39.7 RURAL .. .. 40.0 68.8 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. lb Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1976 and 1979. /c 1973; /d 1962. May, 1981 22 - ANNEX I Page 3 of 5 pages DEFyINITIONS OF SOCIAL INDICATORS Notes: Although the data are drawn from ourcas genrally judged the most authorittiv. and reliahle, it nhould alno be noted that they my not be inter- ,ationally omparable hecauen of the lack of ana,dardized definition and Concepta usd by different contrie- in collecting the data. The date are, nn- thel.e , oseful to describe oderts of magottude, indicate trenda, and characterie rerte major difftnces. betwnenountries. The retarence groups are (1) the sann nountry group tf the pubject country and (2) a country group ith so.swhat higher avr,age inoe that the country group of tho subjent country (except for "Capil Surplus 01l Exporter." group where "Middle Itome North Africa and Middle East" i. chosenese of etronr sooto-culntl affinitin). In the referenc group data the average. are population weighted arithmatic meana for .aoh indicator end atown only when majority af the countoien ina group han data for that Indicator. Sinc ths overag. of couenntr t aong tohe d Iatorn dapends on tt. availabilitp of date and in not uniform, caution munnbeexernied in relating average of on indicator to another. Tese eragea are only oseful in coareing chevalue of one indicator tc time among the country and reference groupu. LAND AREA (thoosand q.k..) Population per ospital Sed - total, urban, and total - Population (t.tal, Total - Total surface area comprising land area and inland waters. urban, and total) divided by thir respectiv number of hospital beda Agricultural - Estimate of agricultural area ased temporarily or pea~nentnly available in public and private generel and specialtied toapitl end re- for crop, pe-tures, market and kitchen gardens or to lie fallo; 1978 data. habilitanionoentere. Hopital. are estabiishmrnts etranontly taffed ty ut et oe phyician. Establishment. proiditg ynctnipally cuoto- GNP PER CAPITA (US$) - GNP per capita estimates at current market prices, cal- dial tate ar ert intleded. Renat hospitals, hoaever, include henrh celated ty ae conerston menhod an World Bank Atlas (1977-79 basis); 1960, und mdiral center. non pernanently ateffed by a phyatcia (but by a 19701, nd 1979 data. medical assistaent, nuse, id.ifa, etc.) which offer tn-potiett accom- dation and provide a Imited range of medical facilitis. For stati- ENERGY CONSUTPTION PER CAPITA - Alnal consupton of commercial energy (roel tical parpo-e~ urban hoapitala include WHO principnl/general hanpitale, and lignite, petroleum, natural gaS and hydro-, nolear and geother7al eler- ad rrl hoapitalg local or rural htspitals and medical and .aernity tricty) in kilograes of coal equivalent per capita; 1960, 1970, and 1979 centern. Specialized hoapitals are included only under total. data. Adisnaina Per Hospital Bed - Total number of admisains to nr dincharges from hospitals divided by the number of beds. POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS Total Population, Mid-Year (thousand,) - A of July 1; 1960, 1970, and 1979 HOUSIIG dato. Anarage Se of Household (persoa pr household) - total. ettan, ond rural- Jrbat Popuation (percent of total) - Ratio of etban to total population; A hausehold consiste of a group of itdivtduals etc share liing quates differeot doftnitiona of urban aean ray affect coaparability of data and their nain noal. A toarder nr lodge may or may roi be inclded in anong countoies; 1960, 1970, and 1979 data. the hou.ehold for statistical Purposes. Population Pr1ectiona Areragehmber of Persona ner ror5 - tota, urban, and total - Average nom- Poplation in year 10 - Current popelation projectiona are based on 1980 her of pertont per room it all arten, end rotat occupied coentorat total yopulation by agr end sen and tfir ta ad tertility rates. dwelltigs, respectively. Duellings exclude on-permatent stroctures and Proection parumetere for mortality rates rompris of tirer lenelsassum- un~ccupied porte. ing lIfe expectancy at hirth tineasirg with country's per capita incoma Acrn to Electrlity (percent of dweltinor) - total, orten, end rrl · level, ord female life nopectancy stabilizing at 77.5 years. The para- Coneinal dwellitga wt electricity i ing quartera ta percentage mera for feriloty rann ars havte thre levela anauming declite in of total, urban, and tral dwellings eapectively. fetility accodng to income level and past family planning performatce. Each ncotry in then as,igned on of these nine combinationa of mortality EDUCATION and tertility trends for projection purposes. AdIuted Enrollent Sarti Stationary population - In a tionary population ther. in no growth nin Primary enhool - tol, moln and Sena - Oron. tatal, moln aad feeal. the bth r ate is equal to the death tate, and alno the agerture tre- enrollment f alt age at the primary lenel er percentages of reepetive tins.conaton. Tis la achienad only aftr fertility rate. denline ro primary school-age populationa; tormally inlude childretaged it-i the raplacement ironi of unit rnt reproduction rate, en rart generation yeata bt adjuted for different lengtha of priary educ.tio; fr of womnn replace itelf oetly. The stationary population eie oas conntrira mih univereal education s nllent may exceed 100 perreat nstimated or the bas of the projected tharacteriatirs of the population sinom. popiln are telo- or atov the offical school age. to the yoar 2000, and the rate of detline of fertility rae ro replace- Ieondary school - rotat, alt and ferale - Computed a at.; seondmry ent lvel. edcationrequire, at leann four year. of approved primary tnetructien; Year tationary population iu reached - The yar when mtationary population provides general, vocational, or teacher training inetretion. for pupih sie ha berr reached. usually of 12 to 17 yeare of agr; orreepondeone cour.e. are generelly Population enasity excluded. Per tq. km. - Mid-year population pe sqcare kilometer (100 hectare.) of Vocatiol enrollmeat (perceat of econdary) - Vonatinal institutions total area; 1960, 1970 and 1979 data. include technical, industrial, er atar programa whIch operate independ- Per aq. t . agricultural land - Computed a. above for agricultural land aly or ee departuent of sedary instittiona. orly; 1960, 1970 and 1978 date. Papil-teachar raaio - piary, and sec~ndary - Total etudenta nrolled it Pulatin Agn Structure (percent) - Children (0-14 yrat), working-age (15- prImary end aacondary teorin divided by numbers of teachera in the 64 years), and retired (65 years and over) am percentage. of mid-year popu- correapnding tenls. ,anion; 1960, 1970, and 1979 date. Adott lieracy rate (ercent) - I.teratt adulta (able to read and rite) Populatio rowth Rato (percent) - total - Annual growth rats of total Mid- as a prc.ntage of total adult population aged 15 years and ost. prat ypouaiona for t950-60, 1960-70, and 1970-79. Populaton rowth Rate (percent) - urban - Anal growth rate. of urban popu- C0ONSUMPTION tna fon 1950-60, 1960-70, and 1970-79. Paseer Gatt (per ethouand nopulatiot) - Paaeager rara compriae mot CrodO Brt Sat GAMBIAN CONCESSION AREAS AND - uaff> soatos,an judg ment on th r.ea ptlu of n t rro o nedoen t rs REGIONAL EXPLORATORY WELLS 1 ®Ds-l NFDI-1K r-s ®Kontinentaltshero concess on area Ni-FlCortinental slope concessior ara ® BK_l RegionaI exploratory we]Is 200-- Bathyrnetric lins, depths in meters S Rivers Paved road, - - Laterite roas --- -- Earth road, Public Work, Department dvs-ons D vision heodquarrers ii lim . r_ l, ... i6 - d -i-, 140- -\ 0 2.0 40 , 60O 80 100 KILOMETERS FF . - -' 14°n J!j. ~0~~~$:cc s- f-- 1t__-__L__ -__ -__-- Bl Iab ~'~'14- DM-1 K-] Bl - - - - ---.- _ ' U - N E A - B U rfy.5 - , -.zrrzGUINEA- BISSAU