SEPTEMBER TRADE WATCH 51323 SEPTEMBER TRADE UPDATE ­ ASIA TAKES THE LEAD All regions show an increase in trade in recent months. South Asia and East Asia lead the recovery. Gains recorded in transport and chemicals in the US and Japan, respectively. South Asia and East Asia and Pacific lead the recovery. July trade data available for 52 countries continue to show increase in imports and exports. Although imports and export remain around 33 percent lower than they were before the crisis, there is growing evidence of a recovery underway. South Asia and East Asia and Pacific display the fastest recovery in trade. China, Indonesia, India and Malaysia lead in imports; while Japan, India, Philippines, and Malaysia display the fastest recovery in Exports. August data, available for a handful of countries, show a small additional gain. (See Tables 1 and 2 and Figures 1 and 2) Trade growth, measured as month relative to same month last year, could be misleading if trade was exceptionally strong at the end of 2007 and beginning of 2008. To reduce this problem we produced a seasonally adjusted trade series 1 using 13 years of monthly trade data in constant dollars for 44 countries. These seasonally-adjusted month-to-month growth rates, shown in Tables 3 and 4, record a similar pattern. We see sharp declines in October, November, and January, totaling around 35 percent, small changes until May and an increase in June and July. Exports increased 6 percent in June and another 4 percent in July; while imports increase 10 percent in June and another 3 percent in July. To see the evolution of trade in context, Figures 1 and 2 show export and import growth (month relative to same month last year) by region through July 2009, for a balanced sample of countries reporting data. Figures 3 and 4 show the same indices by income group. Exports and Imports show a small but generalized improvement across regions and income groups. The rebound is most evident in Figures 5-8, which show a three- month moving average2 growth for these same groups. Figures 9 and 10 show the final quarter seasonally-adjusted growth rates of imports and exports by country. Exchange rate fluctuations play an important role.3 Figure 11 shows a period of weakening of the U.S. Dollar against the Japanese Yen and Euro, followed by a period of strengthening against the British Pound and Euro and a final weakening of the dollar against the British Pound and the Euro in the last three months. To mitigate this "exchange rate effect", we also report trade flows using a standard basket of currencies 1 We converted nominal trade to year's 2000 constant dollars and remove country-month averages. 2 The three month moving average growth is seasonally-adjusted using time-group fixed effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. 3 When the U.S. Dollar depreciates trade growth rates, measured in dollars, are higher, reversely, when the U.S. Dollar appreciates growth rates, are lower (ceteris paribus). In other words, when the U.S. Dollar weakens a product is more expensive in U.S. Dollars inducing a higher growth rate. 1 SEPTEMBER TRADE WATCH (S.D.R.).4 Figure 12 and 13 show that the SDR fluctuation is small to induce a significant change in the series. U.S. and Japanese data, available by industry, provide an indication of where trade is declining/recovering the fastest. Table 5 shows U.S. import growth by broad sector (relative to the same month last year). Similar data for Japan (measured in Yen) are shown in Table 6.5 The uptick is relatively weak in these countries. In the US, transport imports expanded fueled by the "cash for clunkers" program. In Japan, there is more volatility. Still, there is some evidence of renewed strength in foodstuffs and chemicals. This note was prepared by Caroline Freund (DECRG) and Matias David Horenstein (DECRG) with support from PRMTR and the multi-donor trust fund. If you wish to receive a monthly Trade Watch, email mhorenstein@worldbank.org with "Trade Watch" in the subject. For previous notes and more trade statistics visit the Trade Watch webpage at http://go.worldbank.org/RVSFRRTVL0 4 The Special Drawing Right (S.D.R.) was created by the I.M.F. in 1969 to support the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system. Today the S.D.R. is defined as a basket of currencies, consisting of the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound and U.S. Dollar. The U.S. Dollar value of the S.D.R. is posted daily at the IMF website. 5 Aggregate figures for Japan in Table 6 are calculated from Yen values and therefore are different from Tables 1 and 2, which use data in $US. 2 SEPTEMBER TRADE WATCH Table 1: Export Growth Relative to Same Month Previous Year (Percentage Change in U.S. Dollars) Exports Country September October November December January February March April May June July August Argentina 43.54 10.14 -9.79 -28.17 -35.91 -24.52 -15.99 -12.71 -17.62 -4.53 -30.17 n.a. Australia 51.49 33.76 14.75 4.16 -4.80 -0.67 -9.86 -22.61 -29.35 -28.03 -32.35 n.a. Austria 12.24 -7.90 -25.60 -13.13 -35.67 -35.83 -30.05 -41.11 -32.41 -32.42 n.a. n.a. Bangladesh 12.62 31.46 4.90 3.19 9.73 10.68 10.71 18.18 2.75 n.a. n.a. n.a. Belgium 11.07 -6.28 -27.46 -13.22 -31.58 -31.44 -30.85 -39.39 -32.81 n.a. n.a. n.a. Bulgaria 19.68 -5.86 -26.44 -18.90 -36.03 -34.79 -39.62 -49.52 -39.87 -35.51 -40.24 n.a. Canada 14.10 -1.10 -16.26 -16.06 -35.07 -34.31 -36.11 -39.50 -43.84 -38.86 -40.12 n.a. Chile -12.69 -22.73 -27.62 -26.81 -40.43 -40.04 -41.78 -36.85 -31.64 -29.59 -28.55 -24.67 China 21.52 19.20 -2.20 -2.80 -17.70 -25.80 -17.20 -22.80 -26.50 -21.30 -22.87 -23.40 Croatia 21.27 -16.09 -11.21 -8.23 -35.15 -16.47 -24.77 -32.90 -33.10 -34.38 -44.15 n.a. Cyprus 11.04 -13.33 8.40 10.43 -32.68 -28.47 -30.64 -24.22 -28.98 -33.92 -34.88 n.a. Czech Republic 21.94 -4.35 -25.09 -15.11 -37.46 -40.63 -28.95 -39.50 -35.76 -31.45 -34.65 n.a. Denmark 17.65 -2.81 -27.52 -9.65 -28.40 -30.68 -22.84 -38.23 -31.39 -23.71 -25.84 n.a. Ecuador 19.58 -11.08 -23.93 -38.52 -45.19 -51.41 -31.99 -37.52 -43.85 -38.93 -34.32 n.a. Egypt 65.12 38.29 -4.46 -16.15 -9.67 -7.86 -28.41 -27.26 -18.80 -29.72 n.a. n.a. Estonia 27.99 7.52 -27.36 -11.44 -37.24 -35.91 -35.88 -48.11 -38.67 -21.80 -34.10 n.a. Finland 7.43 -4.36 -29.97 -19.44 -43.41 -43.46 -43.12 -46.88 -48.15 -43.04 -43.93 n.a. France 9.84 -8.90 -23.83 -7.72 -32.58 -33.13 -30.44 -38.30 -29.75 -27.14 -26.55 n.a. Germany 9.25 -3.49 -23.86 -12.79 -32.51 -32.78 -30.73 -40.64 -33.76 -30.49 -28.34 n.a. Greece 6.40 4.97 -27.84 -10.31 -31.39 -25.09 -30.26 -31.21 -27.29 -30.21 -29.86 n.a. Hong Kong 3.50 9.36 -4.83 -10.82 -21.42 -22.56 -20.84 -17.76 -13.93 -4.63 -19.43 n.a. Hungary 12.60 -10.85 -21.56 -19.96 -40.00 -37.63 -31.48 -40.69 -33.56 -28.13 -27.82 n.a. Iceland 66.81 -22.72 -46.32 15.89 -32.14 -1.29 -36.42 -53.71 -49.62 -38.95 -26.06 -8.13 India 12.56 -12.35 -19.83 -4.35 -22.90 -26.95 -33.45 -32.73 -29.37 -27.43 -28.03 n.a. Indonesia 29.02 4.72 -1.81 -18.69 -34.95 -32.35 -28.26 -22.59 -28.67 -27.76 -21.92 n.a. Ireland 3.54 -6.96 -19.46 4.07 -13.66 -15.51 -7.01 -11.00 -15.31 -4.36 n.a. n.a. Israel 28.79 -19.20 -17.12 -19.63 -29.81 -33.86 -26.50 -36.12 -28.63 -28.96 -28.67 -20.72 Italy 9.98 -5.08 -26.66 -10.06 -34.76 -34.33 -32.02 -40.45 -35.90 -28.54 n.a. n.a. Japan 9.87 6.77 -16.10 -18.59 -35.33 -40.83 -44.33 -37.92 -35.07 -29.11 -29.37 n.a. Jordan 60.40 51.47 34.18 30.13 14.60 -2.94 -13.80 -4.57 -20.70 -30.41 n.a. n.a. Kazakhstan 47.93 52.26 -2.29 -18.21 -50.53 -46.31 -50.64 -51.37 -52.35 -53.48 -45.09 n.a. Korea, Republic of 27.64 7.78 -19.45 -17.90 -34.52 -18.54 -22.52 -19.86 -28.61 -12.49 -21.82 -20.90 Latvia 32.56 6.67 -18.13 -10.84 -28.54 -33.19 -30.48 -36.67 -34.16 -24.95 -37.52 n.a. Lithuania 44.35 18.52 2.10 -8.18 -25.12 -35.94 -43.06 -49.82 -42.75 -40.26 n.a. n.a. Luxembourg 17.83 -4.03 -28.97 -22.13 -39.22 -38.00 -33.54 -45.40 -39.87 -38.82 n.a. n.a. Malaysia 15.95 -6.59 -10.83 -20.76 -34.56 -24.90 -27.99 -35.29 -35.15 -22.15 -30.26 n.a. Malta 1.81 -6.37 -34.85 -36.19 -44.80 -43.23 -35.72 -35.06 -29.34 -30.90 -26.08 n.a. Mexico 8.40 -6.36 -16.67 -19.68 -31.50 -29.46 -25.13 -35.58 -32.82 -26.58 -34.81 n.a. Netherlands 15.71 -0.23 -23.42 -12.54 -29.14 -30.00 -30.21 -37.28 -31.03 -27.68 -26.48 n.a. New Zealand 0.44 -8.58 -19.03 -24.80 -30.21 -37.70 -24.03 -30.12 -17.43 -24.11 -22.41 n.a. Norway 13.59 -1.23 -14.37 -22.43 -36.16 -35.54 -34.47 -49.03 -47.56 -40.21 -39.01 n.a. Pakistan 20.77 9.86 -0.78 -3.05 -7.79 -17.37 -25.93 -24.09 -20.31 -20.39 -21.00 -2.07 Peru 8.09 -8.69 -11.58 -32.97 -35.81 -26.20 -30.13 -33.28 -26.91 -25.65 -25.59 n.a. Philippines 1.12 -14.78 -11.40 -40.32 -40.64 -39.05 -30.68 -35.18 -26.90 -24.53 -25.36 n.a. Poland 25.95 -0.34 -21.14 -17.16 -34.48 -35.61 -28.97 -41.03 -33.74 -31.11 -31.27 n.a. Portugal 6.79 -9.47 -25.79 -18.91 -36.39 -38.36 -35.11 -39.74 -33.75 -30.06 -29.85 n.a. Romania 21.28 9.04 -20.59 -20.05 -33.15 -35.87 -22.45 -35.40 -33.97 -25.47 -24.63 n.a. Russian Federation 53.71 12.45 -16.08 -25.84 -48.01 -47.89 -47.70 -47.12 -46.61 -44.07 -44.48 n.a. Singapore 17.99 -4.63 -15.93 -21.80 -40.75 -28.56 -29.04 -33.19 -30.24 -28.26 -28.01 n.a. Slovakia 9.55 -5.61 -26.74 -24.10 -42.13 -41.74 -34.47 -38.31 -38.10 -33.30 -34.93 n.a. Slovenia 14.35 -4.42 -24.91 -19.11 -33.86 -33.31 -32.71 -41.33 -31.39 -26.99 -31.58 n.a. South Africa 35.67 13.87 -25.98 -23.71 -38.50 -28.03 -19.70 -37.40 -35.46 -27.97 -31.83 n.a. Spain 18.71 -4.72 -25.25 -12.32 -34.65 -34.43 -28.67 -38.77 -31.86 -18.98 n.a. n.a. Sri Lanka -10.19 0.26 9.14 -22.59 -12.04 -18.62 -8.95 -28.99 -26.48 -13.76 n.a. n.a. Sweden 10.64 -10.61 -31.03 -25.86 -42.28 -41.90 -36.21 -46.92 -41.03 -31.13 -40.84 n.a. Switzerland 18.17 4.69 -14.10 -2.36 -14.77 -22.73 -21.80 -28.04 -22.88 -23.39 -22.88 n.a. Taiwan, Province of China -2.34 -9.29 -23.46 -41.59 -44.86 -29.70 -35.83 -34.49 -30.10 -30.76 -24.55 -23.51 Thailand 22.65 5.23 -18.60 -12.48 -26.47 -11.35 -23.08 -26.06 -26.59 -25.94 -25.69 n.a. Turkey 41.54 -1.74 -16.99 -20.59 -25.85 -23.87 -28.58 -33.42 -41.10 -29.13 -28.28 n.a. Ukraine 62.47 34.89 -18.60 -17.56 -33.40 -42.50 -41.13 -44.46 -53.36 -56.97 -57.84 n.a. United Kingdom 9.15 -4.36 -30.77 -18.29 -32.56 -34.89 -34.68 -34.88 -37.07 -31.18 n.a. n.a. United States 9.11 4.50 -5.66 -11.75 -21.13 -23.84 -21.75 -26.85 -26.62 -26.83 -25.92 n.a. Uruguay 10.96 39.11 2.73 -10.06 -9.13 -18.14 -21.71 -17.34 3.58 -18.02 n.a. n.a. Venezuela -81.45 -82.27 -77.52 -74.13 -71.85 -67.49 -72.09 -63.89 -58.25 n.a. n.a. n.a. Viet Nam 28.63 20.10 -6.24 4.26 -25.78 32.32 13.02 -16.10 -14.27 -13.87 -23.10 -21.90 Average 18.58 1.19 -17.16 -15.83 -30.99 -29.12 -28.91 -34.16 -31.79 -28.43 -30.85 -18.16 Balanced Average 20.07 0.38 -17.69 -16.58 -33.11 -29.96 -29.51 -35.21 -32.94 -28.95 -30.85 - Source: Datastream. Note: Data reported in national currency are converted to U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. n.a. indicates not available 3 SEPTEMBER TRADE WATCH Table 2: Import Growth Relative to Same Month Previous Year (Percentage Change in U.S. Dollars) Imports Country September October November December January February March April May June July August Argentina 33.99 16.57 -5.38 -10.90 -38.37 -36.73 -30.68 -43.42 -48.85 -30.07 -40.79 n.a. Australia 29.45 -4.84 -11.51 -0.16 -25.11 -27.28 -27.31 -28.03 -34.81 -26.72 -30.55 n.a. Austria 7.90 -1.22 -19.95 -7.84 -30.81 -32.01 -28.59 -35.05 -32.21 -32.08 n.a. n.a. Bangladesh 31.52 26.67 9.04 -1.25 1.97 -9.66 -7.55 -16.82 -4.92 n.a. n.a. n.a. Belgium 17.49 -4.54 -23.38 -13.15 -31.79 -28.96 -32.50 -40.86 -36.84 n.a. n.a. n.a. Bulgaria 18.81 7.05 -23.40 -21.18 -40.95 -39.14 -38.49 -49.07 -44.74 -47.77 -44.79 n.a. Canada 11.26 -3.12 -15.09 -9.75 -27.13 -26.39 -29.34 -27.86 -35.13 -29.24 -27.85 n.a. Chile 47.37 21.96 -14.56 -4.40 -27.28 -35.32 -33.50 -36.97 -43.87 -37.97 -33.18 -40.55 China 21.32 15.60 -17.90 -21.30 -43.10 -24.10 -25.20 -23.00 -25.20 -13.20 -14.91 -17.00 Croatia 31.24 -5.04 -17.11 -6.84 -39.76 -34.50 -29.88 -42.79 -37.62 -36.89 -39.53 n.a. Cyprus 25.43 -0.49 -12.35 -7.92 -32.34 -28.85 -30.13 -37.47 -35.56 -32.28 -49.91 n.a. Czech Republic 24.22 1.33 -20.47 -11.61 -35.45 -40.29 -33.51 -42.65 -36.74 -34.55 -37.37 n.a. Denmark 14.24 -3.38 -22.17 -8.96 -20.96 -26.86 -29.14 -38.48 -31.93 -29.37 -29.42 n.a. Ecuador 54.92 38.33 10.46 22.83 3.47 -1.37 -8.27 -25.49 -11.10 -35.12 -28.62 n.a. Egypt 112.32 96.81 57.03 31.90 36.76 31.66 30.58 -16.54 -28.93 -22.29 n.a. n.a. Estonia 6.56 -7.68 -29.64 -19.59 -43.60 -43.02 -42.73 -50.86 -48.21 -37.14 -44.82 n.a. Finland 21.74 -5.65 -23.68 -16.55 -40.45 -38.90 -40.08 -50.85 -47.37 -41.22 -46.42 n.a. France 14.68 -2.20 -20.76 -11.75 -31.15 -29.28 -28.27 -36.24 -32.12 -28.21 -32.45 n.a. Germany 16.14 -0.19 -14.73 -9.17 -24.03 -26.97 -27.33 -35.79 -31.84 -25.99 -31.45 n.a. Greece 6.85 -8.48 -25.32 -15.31 -38.23 -38.46 -38.47 -47.48 -44.33 -35.84 -41.82 n.a. Hong Kong 3.79 11.20 -7.52 -15.67 -26.72 -17.01 -22.44 -16.56 -18.65 -7.15 -17.29 n.a. Hungary 15.08 -8.05 -21.21 -20.28 -38.78 -40.61 -36.51 -45.81 -40.88 -34.21 -39.77 n.a. Iceland -0.87 -52.14 -45.18 -52.33 -51.42 -51.44 -54.76 -57.75 -61.04 -49.06 -62.61 n.a. India 54.07 7.25 9.85 0.00 -27.75 -36.10 -34.18 -36.16 -39.41 -29.05 -36.72 n.a. Indonesia 66.34 70.74 19.90 13.23 -31.30 -39.66 -36.22 -42.41 -34.49 -40.79 -36.13 n.a. Ireland -2.43 -19.47 -37.00 -22.93 -36.27 -30.59 -24.96 -38.45 -29.80 -31.70 n.a. n.a. Israel 28.46 -6.02 -6.47 -27.48 -33.93 -35.12 -37.42 -40.78 -40.52 -33.80 -33.81 -22.80 Italy 13.08 -3.68 -24.71 -14.97 -33.16 -32.78 -33.35 -41.61 -39.14 -29.06 n.a. n.a. Japan 39.43 24.51 -1.93 -1.70 -18.91 -33.26 -35.20 -34.55 -36.69 -35.98 -34.17 n.a. Jordan 23.61 9.18 -6.86 -14.36 -15.13 -23.33 -22.57 -24.24 -24.40 -27.09 n.a. n.a. Kazakhstan 20.13 4.49 0.29 21.54 -21.37 -13.36 -12.43 -17.84 -33.68 -30.65 -39.03 n.a. Korea, Republic of 45.36 10.25 -14.95 -21.60 -31.42 -30.79 -35.67 -35.37 -39.97 -32.87 -35.70 -32.56 Latvia 17.12 -5.60 -24.08 -15.90 -39.31 -43.50 -40.07 -50.42 -46.92 -47.05 -49.98 n.a. Lithuania 30.61 5.85 -18.84 -11.55 -47.16 -47.91 -53.54 -58.16 -48.74 -49.59 n.a. n.a. Luxembourg 22.86 2.55 -11.44 -14.52 -30.89 -33.82 -29.91 -41.80 -41.20 -32.90 n.a. n.a. Malaysia 12.31 -9.16 -14.28 -28.11 -36.90 -35.28 -39.33 -31.89 -33.41 -26.53 -24.14 n.a. Malta 20.49 -27.72 -27.13 -13.77 -25.08 -34.56 -34.94 -36.35 -28.84 -34.52 -27.03 n.a. Mexico 17.84 0.26 -7.63 -12.79 -30.04 -30.72 -21.90 -38.82 -35.46 -25.12 -33.06 n.a. Netherlands 20.80 1.79 -18.55 -9.79 -30.09 -30.45 -29.10 -36.21 -32.73 -30.44 -29.72 n.a. New Zealand 17.21 -6.35 -20.75 -17.25 -34.56 -42.67 -33.08 -40.82 -39.06 -21.04 -33.80 n.a. Norway 23.02 -21.43 -23.92 -10.06 -34.33 -36.31 -23.38 -41.04 -34.84 -30.36 -37.58 n.a. Pakistan 40.24 2.09 -13.85 -10.73 -28.32 -41.73 -38.42 -31.90 -32.67 -18.00 -25.84 -24.50 Peru 60.49 32.78 14.90 6.36 -19.04 -18.12 -28.49 -27.51 -40.04 -39.70 -36.96 n.a. Philippines 2.53 -11.13 -31.52 -34.18 -34.55 -31.90 -36.17 -37.38 -24.10 -22.57 n.a. n.a. Poland 28.76 4.40 -17.48 -12.18 -36.59 -41.03 -37.68 -46.13 -42.11 -42.94 -34.94 n.a. Portugal 11.48 -4.00 -22.59 -14.23 -33.09 -39.22 -33.10 -41.87 -38.37 -28.29 -33.15 n.a. Romania 31.49 1.13 -27.27 -27.81 -43.08 -42.47 -45.33 -49.19 -45.30 -43.69 -44.77 n.a. Russian Federation 44.83 23.48 -3.11 -3.32 -32.96 -36.62 -38.25 -42.57 -43.30 -39.33 -43.82 n.a. Singapore 33.65 3.86 -13.46 -18.20 -36.50 -25.35 -35.62 -37.72 -31.86 -30.45 -32.60 n.a. Slovakia 10.46 -6.43 -26.34 -24.03 -35.87 -42.25 -35.60 -46.93 -39.32 -33.66 -37.92 n.a. Slovenia 13.44 0.12 -23.89 -15.90 -38.94 -36.51 -35.63 -44.76 -42.06 -38.35 -40.29 n.a. South Africa 32.47 -8.42 -17.65 -23.27 -27.64 -35.10 -26.17 -44.91 -39.84 -33.53 -44.43 n.a. Spain 8.50 -14.43 -30.58 -20.90 -43.06 -34.98 -43.69 -46.06 -42.26 -35.98 n.a. n.a. Sri Lanka 22.44 8.77 -3.16 -11.33 -40.86 -39.86 -12.87 -53.42 -40.94 -28.28 n.a. n.a. Sweden 7.45 -9.31 -28.67 -24.78 -41.97 -39.68 -36.26 -47.70 -42.76 -39.99 -39.99 n.a. Switzerland 19.25 -0.83 -17.99 -4.79 -19.91 -18.51 -16.00 -35.20 -25.64 -19.74 -24.28 n.a. Taiwan, Province of China 9.13 -8.42 -13.83 -44.33 -57.06 -32.68 -49.58 -41.35 -37.92 -33.88 -34.25 -31.33 Thailand 39.35 21.68 2.01 -6.53 -37.60 -40.33 -35.13 -36.31 -34.70 -27.13 -32.15 n.a. Turkey 23.69 -4.38 -27.41 -29.25 -43.19 -43.37 -37.40 -43.43 -43.86 -35.84 -39.53 n.a. Ukraine 74.76 30.22 -9.58 -27.93 -55.88 -41.24 -48.93 -54.76 -58.47 -59.66 -55.84 n.a. United Kingdom -0.40 -10.37 -29.35 -21.86 -32.07 -36.19 -34.91 -35.16 -36.55 -31.44 n.a. n.a. United States 11.59 2.61 -16.01 -14.57 -26.59 -34.14 -28.95 -34.35 -35.97 -32.69 -32.96 n.a. Uruguay 44.17 78.51 -3.88 21.12 -42.70 -7.92 -15.42 -41.18 -46.00 -29.32 8.83 n.a. Venezuela 12.31 5.42 6.88 18.04 14.53 -13.09 27.36 -5.58 -9.02 -22.39 n.a. n.a. Viet Nam 8.06 8.69 -19.11 -19.05 -55.21 -27.79 -27.96 -30.50 -29.14 -13.21 -10.31 -1.21 Average 25.01 4.80 -14.10 -12.26 -31.55 -31.63 -30.33 -38.29 -36.53 -32.30 -34.89 -24.28 Balanced Average 25.95 4.34 -14.75 -12.90 -33.89 -33.18 -32.72 -39.17 -37.95 -32.74 -34.89 - Source: Datastream. Note: Data reported in national currency are converted to U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. n.a. indicates not available 4 SEPTEMBER TRADE WATCH Table 3: Month-to-Month Export Growth (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars ­ Seasonally Adjusted) Exports Country September October November December January February March April May June July Argentina -2.39 -12.16 -17.76 -14.43 -3.35 6.61 -2.63 13.28 -5.56 5.64 -7.21 Australia 0.04 -6.83 -10.36 -3.80 -10.67 3.32 0.50 -9.71 -4.48 4.50 -0.07 Canada -0.29 -6.01 -13.60 -4.89 -16.88 4.33 -5.12 0.18 -8.04 7.01 15.32 Chile -16.79 4.00 -12.42 -6.50 -1.01 -4.86 -0.28 9.76 -7.52 9.79 7.83 China 0.32 -3.89 -10.74 -2.17 -11.59 -21.55 20.76 -1.19 -1.96 3.27 8.32 Croatia 6.34 -17.38 0.46 -4.68 -22.83 29.92 -16.85 7.19 -4.83 -4.53 2.70 Cyprus -12.69 -10.53 15.13 -1.89 -28.36 13.60 -14.92 26.35 -8.39 -3.15 8.96 Czech Republic 17.42 -10.30 -18.38 -3.06 -10.28 -4.06 17.86 -6.50 -5.24 11.60 1.47 Denmark 7.55 -9.22 -19.93 9.67 -6.12 -2.59 0.04 -0.49 0.03 7.58 6.75 Estonia 4.60 0.27 -30.81 4.15 -17.13 2.36 -1.88 -3.66 4.25 21.82 -6.33 Finland 2.03 -7.96 -21.51 3.92 -17.90 2.01 -4.30 8.42 -12.55 11.32 4.18 France 11.54 -7.49 -16.53 11.23 -14.50 -0.35 -1.43 2.01 -0.40 6.41 10.07 Germany 5.04 -4.83 -18.82 3.89 -9.54 -2.46 2.19 -4.47 -0.37 8.93 5.02 Greece 25.15 -4.55 -27.11 -1.41 -15.66 16.30 -8.21 8.61 9.55 -7.64 8.05 Hong Kong 0.35 10.41 -10.58 -6.86 -6.94 -5.69 1.46 9.16 0.15 3.50 -7.81 Hungary 12.27 -13.13 -12.20 -7.11 -8.59 0.44 9.68 -4.82 -1.64 9.43 4.26 Iceland 32.98 -26.60 -23.47 60.28 -43.03 10.47 -11.55 -6.89 17.78 1.76 9.87 India -11.97 -6.81 -13.88 16.23 -9.23 -2.72 -8.31 7.36 -2.72 16.27 3.33 Indonesia -2.49 -11.05 -4.78 -8.94 -13.95 -1.46 9.93 1.09 4.29 -1.04 5.20 Japan 0.10 -0.23 -16.34 -6.70 -13.44 -12.05 -4.98 10.65 8.61 1.67 9.22 Korea, Republic of 0.38 -3.25 -22.28 -3.68 -14.35 18.97 -0.79 10.66 -9.34 14.68 0.96 Latvia 12.46 -8.99 -20.66 1.04 -16.89 1.78 0.67 -2.70 -2.22 7.88 -9.54 Malaysia 0.61 -15.23 -0.84 -11.43 -10.96 8.97 -8.88 2.00 3.05 13.92 -3.13 Malta 6.27 -2.10 -34.71 35.80 -24.72 -3.00 8.02 7.10 -9.93 8.46 17.07 Mexico -0.94 -7.54 -12.21 -2.19 -12.67 1.63 5.11 -5.13 -4.51 11.89 -4.46 New Zealand -15.73 8.11 -12.82 3.62 -11.17 -6.77 9.36 0.26 4.17 -1.74 2.24 Norway -10.81 -2.29 -11.13 -3.22 -12.19 4.29 -1.58 -11.24 0.08 8.67 6.02 Peru -6.30 -11.75 -11.06 -12.70 -6.22 11.63 0.56 -4.53 11.86 -5.36 5.52 Portugal 5.36 -9.31 -13.25 0.42 -9.16 -2.55 -0.32 1.64 1.25 5.25 9.06 Romania 4.17 4.18 -25.94 -9.50 -5.64 0.15 17.33 -10.10 4.07 11.05 8.26 Russian Federation -2.71 -11.98 -21.89 -9.01 -26.96 -1.12 1.36 3.17 5.21 8.18 3.63 Singapore 1.18 -12.32 -11.90 -8.01 -11.00 11.34 -2.89 4.53 -1.66 4.41 8.23 Slovenia 15.11 -7.91 -19.63 -4.37 -5.76 1.79 -0.15 -2.49 4.63 5.65 -1.73 South Africa -0.86 -11.25 -20.75 -9.84 -17.00 15.75 10.02 -12.98 2.90 9.15 0.61 Sweden 4.16 -8.61 -20.30 -0.84 -9.42 0.77 -2.19 -1.58 2.20 12.91 -2.78 Switzerland 3.73 -1.55 -12.93 -4.03 4.87 -6.08 -3.86 10.59 -5.96 2.44 9.21 Taiwan, Province of China -12.86 -6.58 -17.88 -14.87 -5.41 18.49 -2.02 -1.69 7.52 4.32 1.15 Thailand -0.34 -6.10 -20.74 3.09 -6.78 9.86 -9.57 0.27 2.28 4.48 4.68 Turkey 11.39 -24.50 -2.76 -15.79 9.09 4.61 -11.00 -3.14 -7.01 13.96 7.53 United States -8.25 -0.15 -8.52 -5.37 -7.81 -0.17 -3.59 -0.95 0.95 1.94 7.15 Uruguay n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Balanced Average 2.13 -7.09 -15.15 -0.85 -12.03 3.05 -0.31 1.25 -0.24 6.41 3.97 Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. n.a. indicates not available. 5 SEPTEMBER TRADE WATCH Table 4: Month-to-Month Import Growth (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars ­ Seasonally Adjusted) Imports Country September October November December January February March April May June July Argentina 6.91 -4.68 -17.08 -10.37 -18.60 2.37 -2.26 -4.55 -10.28 34.70 -6.38 Australia 7.57 -15.25 -4.78 4.16 -14.74 -1.11 -2.60 3.96 -7.93 10.97 4.51 Canada 5.22 -5.05 -12.34 3.03 -15.69 0.48 -6.77 5.14 -8.11 8.02 15.44 Chile -1.18 -2.75 -26.49 8.37 -21.90 0.39 -5.54 10.97 -16.19 10.96 15.69 China -1.29 -8.16 -21.62 -5.24 -20.21 21.52 3.74 7.53 0.07 11.19 6.90 Croatia 10.77 -14.16 -18.11 5.45 -21.39 4.36 4.01 -3.23 -8.91 7.32 -1.55 Cyprus 5.38 -13.68 -10.94 -3.76 -11.07 -0.09 1.55 -11.22 12.37 -0.45 -9.66 Czech Republic 16.16 -5.71 -20.11 -2.96 -11.06 -6.42 9.65 -5.82 -2.15 8.11 1.66 Denmark 4.83 -5.69 -16.12 6.03 -0.98 -9.14 -5.87 1.94 -1.35 4.58 5.44 Estonia 6.16 -4.94 -22.62 4.98 -22.05 -3.30 -2.35 -5.86 -3.33 19.14 -0.55 Finland 5.69 -11.46 -18.04 4.26 -17.16 -2.02 -0.84 -7.74 1.14 4.98 3.71 France 5.60 -5.21 -14.90 1.65 -10.21 0.35 -1.24 0.24 -2.65 8.87 1.11 Germany 3.08 -6.63 -12.64 2.32 -7.46 -3.76 -0.07 -4.63 -1.04 7.42 2.55 Greece 18.94 -4.14 -18.67 0.21 -14.13 2.61 0.98 -7.20 0.68 25.79 -7.84 Hong Kong 0.95 10.50 -13.06 -8.82 -10.26 4.33 -4.30 10.46 -0.85 6.17 -3.69 Hungary 10.77 -11.89 -13.66 -6.02 -5.83 -9.27 5.83 -6.31 -0.57 11.78 -0.88 Iceland 4.98 -31.66 -7.17 -7.09 9.78 -8.97 -26.37 17.08 -9.00 4.06 1.55 India -9.77 -12.34 1.41 -13.66 -13.76 -14.20 7.90 2.32 -4.78 20.54 1.22 Indonesia -7.69 -2.73 -11.34 -13.13 -16.08 -5.95 0.53 3.25 9.33 -6.14 12.39 Japan 3.00 -1.45 -13.88 0.47 -12.18 -16.86 -0.22 1.07 -3.56 5.72 8.16 Korea, Republic of -1.61 -10.41 -18.37 -6.45 -4.02 -5.87 -3.91 5.46 -5.61 8.62 5.80 Latvia 14.65 -10.86 -22.26 4.64 -18.00 -6.84 -4.72 -9.55 -3.43 1.31 -2.30 Malaysia -2.84 -9.77 -5.22 -14.39 -7.98 -0.27 -8.86 14.14 -0.95 7.94 9.86 Malta 16.58 -28.38 -10.50 28.42 -10.11 -17.97 -4.48 16.25 -7.27 -3.32 27.42 Mexico 2.10 -6.61 -13.51 -4.86 -11.70 -3.00 2.30 -7.31 -6.00 17.52 -0.51 New Zealand -5.68 -1.75 -19.92 5.60 -18.38 -9.38 11.75 -0.84 -5.63 26.04 -10.90 Norway 14.16 -18.48 -13.51 7.90 -13.94 0.78 0.23 -2.39 1.16 6.59 -6.80 Peru 12.08 -2.91 -20.91 -4.89 -7.40 -7.94 -3.90 4.05 -11.91 10.92 1.71 Portugal -0.39 -6.13 -14.58 2.71 -10.78 -6.82 2.63 -4.85 0.04 13.04 5.86 Romania 15.32 -9.46 -26.46 -10.14 -18.55 5.05 1.00 -2.41 -2.20 7.79 1.05 Russian Federation 2.34 -1.38 -20.34 4.98 -46.90 15.47 -1.01 0.50 -4.86 7.94 1.43 Singapore 7.53 -10.45 -14.54 -8.54 -8.90 7.04 -10.38 4.41 4.43 3.42 4.28 Slovenia 8.44 -4.80 -24.41 1.56 -14.89 -1.36 0.25 -4.35 -0.95 5.02 5.41 South Africa 7.32 -13.09 -17.56 -3.87 0.32 -15.58 12.40 -13.86 -1.38 9.01 0.17 Sweden 0.40 -8.08 -18.00 -7.49 -6.97 0.39 0.59 -4.37 1.11 6.39 6.13 Switzerland 5.95 -5.04 -13.85 4.64 -6.09 3.40 -0.57 -8.20 2.51 7.82 1.60 Taiwan, Province of China -15.44 -17.30 -10.11 -21.36 -21.00 38.82 -12.97 6.95 5.69 12.31 -1.57 Thailand -2.37 -1.05 -14.68 -10.52 -19.75 -7.31 3.94 8.84 -8.16 18.97 6.70 Turkey -7.51 -16.10 -19.46 -9.60 -4.05 -4.92 3.25 -2.68 0.66 17.22 -2.52 United States -3.74 -1.04 -16.21 0.41 -10.43 -7.58 -0.79 0.30 -3.59 5.42 5.99 Uruguay -3.23 -4.13 -25.74 4.64 -21.01 12.33 -7.02 -1.93 0.77 21.60 5.88 Balanced Average 3.91 -8.40 -15.91 -1.63 -13.06 -1.37 -1.08 0.14 -2.51 10.13 2.79 Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. n.a. indicates not available. 6 SEPTEMBER TRADE WATCH Table 5: U.S. Import Growth by Industry (in U.S. dollars relative to the same month last year) Industry September October November December January February March April May June July Animal & Animal Products 7.45 -2.20 -4.00 0.69 -7.90 -13.11 -2.97 0.28 -10.56 -11.03 -10.84 Vegetable Products 24.20 18.58 6.59 11.26 -1.23 -8.02 -9.72 -14.36 -18.52 -5.46 -12.09 Foodstuffs 19.76 7.93 -3.15 4.66 -6.03 -9.50 0.28 -13.65 -8.66 -3.59 -10.99 Mineral Products 34.01 25.18 -27.90 -35.23 -50.02 -53.61 -50.74 -54.76 -55.79 -51.81 -55.74 Chemicals & Allied Industries 26.42 14.00 -3.14 13.34 -11.14 -19.13 -9.60 -10.75 -20.00 -22.51 -13.63 Plastics / Rubbers 13.98 8.10 -0.58 -5.97 -14.52 -31.11 -21.55 -30.31 -27.29 -23.32 -25.23 Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & Furs 8.28 -1.12 -9.71 -5.08 -3.76 -25.90 -14.21 -22.30 -23.40 -22.94 -28.49 Wood & Wood Products -5.41 -9.97 -15.64 -16.85 -25.77 -27.80 -26.02 -32.76 -31.56 -25.95 -29.41 Textiles 2.01 -0.40 -10.41 -4.58 -9.40 -19.09 -11.20 -15.66 -18.21 -15.29 -13.69 Footwear / Headgear 7.37 7.31 -3.86 -1.19 5.00 -19.77 -6.77 -16.17 -13.55 -12.46 -11.75 Stone / Glass 8.49 -14.91 -24.18 -20.14 -34.48 -41.53 -34.38 -30.45 -38.89 -24.88 -30.27 Metals 25.29 15.59 1.65 -5.95 -13.01 -33.68 -33.09 -47.01 -49.27 -54.21 -52.93 Machinery / Electrical 4.49 -4.26 -16.17 -13.18 -19.46 -26.19 -21.45 -26.33 -26.05 -20.32 -21.44 Transportation -10.79 -21.79 -26.51 -21.05 -42.71 -51.49 -45.28 -47.22 -48.33 -42.64 -31.13 Miscellaneous 4.68 -1.63 -11.16 -5.90 -14.20 -26.35 -14.42 -22.64 -23.49 -21.22 -18.06 Total 11.59 2.61 -16.02 -14.58 -26.59 -34.14 -28.94 -34.35 -35.98 -32.69 -32.96 Source: U.S.I.T.C. and authors' calculations. Table 6: Japan's Import Growth by Industry (in Japanese Yen relative to the same month last year) Industry September October November December January February March April May June July Animal & Animal Products 12.04 7.08 -7.73 -7.05 -9.00 -15.74 -21.81 -13.36 -21.63 -19.45 -19.80 Vegetable Products 49.33 25.33 -5.71 -8.01 -25.68 -32.74 -23.53 -25.61 -35.11 -34.48 -33.18 Foodstuffs 9.44 -2.34 -16.58 -3.38 -6.43 -18.17 0.34 -16.61 -17.05 -3.58 -5.17 Mineral Products 62.17 29.96 -12.55 -29.80 -42.38 -50.77 -50.38 -48.03 -56.21 -59.47 -54.87 Chemicals & Allied Industries 24.09 3.96 -5.29 -3.96 -15.08 -27.65 -21.03 -15.14 -31.28 -19.19 -23.77 Plastics / Rubbers 26.07 7.87 -0.53 -3.89 -18.11 -42.29 -35.63 -37.15 -42.30 -32.71 -34.53 Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & Furs 0.90 -14.41 -22.48 -16.52 -7.29 -33.25 -9.48 -21.09 -27.08 -22.82 -21.09 Wood & Wood Products 13.93 2.54 -8.46 -7.73 -12.67 -20.36 -21.24 -19.64 -27.77 -28.73 -26.44 Textiles 11.67 -1.69 -9.36 -1.96 3.29 -31.40 3.71 -5.64 -18.70 -12.13 -14.93 Footwear / Headgear 15.69 -0.09 -5.58 -2.21 -0.19 -24.10 4.89 -1.30 -13.45 -6.98 -12.53 Stone / Glass 16.77 4.36 -23.65 -38.91 -37.92 -58.48 -46.93 -42.13 -51.36 -51.21 -46.17 Metals 13.81 5.16 -15.04 -22.78 -35.86 -56.44 -53.03 -62.37 -66.19 -64.41 -61.02 Machinery / Electrical 5.78 -8.64 -20.37 -24.95 -34.56 -42.38 -35.48 -32.64 -29.89 -26.28 -28.98 Transportation 3.73 -34.99 -36.25 -25.05 -49.08 -47.09 -34.19 -39.22 -47.82 -48.84 -45.87 Miscellaneous 7.93 -7.26 -19.98 -16.21 -30.70 -35.97 -24.08 -23.81 -28.65 -25.83 -26.86 Total 28.98 7.85 -14.80 -21.74 -31.92 -43.01 -36.70 -36.08 -42.64 -42.24 -41.07 Source: Ministry of Finance, Japan, and authors' calculations. 7 SEPTEMBER TRADE WATCH Figure 1: Export Growth by Region Figure 2: Import Growth by Region 70 70 50 50 30 30 10 10 jan f eb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan f eb mar apr may jun jul jan f eb mar aprmay jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan f eb mar aprmay jun jul -10 -10 -30 -30 -50 -50 EAP ECA LCR MNA NOA SAS SSA EAP ECA LCR MNA NOA SAS SSA Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department and Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department and authors' calculations. Simple average of growth rates authors' calculations. Simple average of growth rates across economies within regions for a balanced sample of across economies within regions for a balanced sample of 52 economies reporting data. *South Africa is the only 52 economies reporting data. *South Africa is the only Sub Saharan country with available data. Sub Saharan country with available data. Figure 3: Export Growth by Income Group Figure 4: Import Growth by Income Group 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 jan f eb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan f eb mar apr may jun jan f eb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan f eb mar apr may jun jul -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 L ML UM H_OECD H_other L ML UM H_OECD H_other Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department and Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department and authors' calculations. Simple average of growth rates of authors' calculations. Simple average of growth rates of economies in income groups for a balanced sample of 52 economies in income groups for a balanced sample of 52 economies reporting data. economies reporting data. 8 SEPTEMBER TRADE WATCH Figure 5: Export Growth by Region Figure 6: Import Growth by Region (Quarter to Quarter*) (Quarter to Quarter*) 20 20 15 10 EAP 10 EAP ECA1 5 ECA1 0 ECA2 0 ECA2 oct sep jul jul aug jun jun feb feb dec nov mar mar jan apr jan apr may may oct sep jul jul aug jun jun feb feb nov dec mar mar jan jan apr apr may may LCR -5 LCR -10 MNA -10 MNA NOA -15 NOA -20 SAS -20 SAS -30 SSA -25 SSA -30 -40 -35 Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations. Moving quarter to of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations. Moving quarter to quarter growth using a balanced sample of 52 economies quarter growth using a balanced sample of 52 economies reporting data; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed reporting data; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. Figure 7: Export Growth by Income Group Figure 8: Import Growth by Income Group (Quarter to Quarter*) (Quarter to Quarter*) 15 30 10 20 5 10 L L 0 ML 0 ML oct jul jul aug sep jun jun feb feb dec nov mar mar apr apr jan jan may may oct sep jul jul aug jun jun -5 UM UM feb feb nov dec mar mar jan apr jan apr may may H_OECD -10 H_OECD -10 H_other H_other -20 -15 -20 -30 -25 -40 Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations. Moving quarter to Labor Statistics and authors' calculations. Moving quarter to quarter growth using a balanced sample of 52 economies reporting quarter growth using a balanced sample of 52 economies reporting data; *Seasonally adjusted using time-income fixed effects and data; *Seasonally adjusted using time-income fixed effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. deflated using U.S. consumer price index. 9 Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' 10 calculations. July moving quarter to quarter growth; *Seasonally adjusted using time-country fixed effects calculations. July moving quarter to quarter growth; *Seasonally adjusted using time-country fixed effects Ecuador China Russian Federation Uruguay Japan Indonesia Iceland India Estonia Malaysia India Taiwan, Province of China Philippines Thailand Kazakhstan Greece Romania Turkey Israel Pakistan Malaysia New Zealand Taiwan, Province of China Portugal Indonesia Malta Figure 10: Last Quarter Import Growth* Portugal Hong Kong Figure 9: Last Quarter Export Growth* Greece Viet Nam Chile Korea, Republic of China Singapore SEPTEMBER TRADE WATCH Malta Estonia France Israel Korea, Republic of Hungary Denmark Netherlands Netherlands Sweden Hong Kong Poland Bulgaria Japan Sweden France Singapore Switzerland Poland Czech Republic New Zealand Argentina Slovenia Denmark Hungary United States Cyprus Slovenia and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. Czech Republic Canada Germany Cyprus Pakistan Germany Thailand Australia Switzerland Russian Federation South Africa Mexico United States Iceland Peru Norway Norway Finland Ukraine Romania Argentina Bulgaria Mexico Chile Canada Slovakia Finland Peru Latvia South Africa Turkey Ecuador Slovakia Croatia Australia Kazakhstan Croatia Ukraine Viet Nam Latvia 25 20 15 10 -10 -15 -20 25 20 15 10 -10 -15 5 0 -5 5 0 -5 SEPTEMBER TRADE WATCH Figure 11: Normalized Exchange Rates 140 130 120 SDR 110 Euro Yen 100 Pound 90 80 70 2007M1 2007M2 2007M3 2007M9 2007M10 2007M11 2007M12 2008M6 2008M7 2008M8 2009M2 2009M3 2009M4 2009M5 2007M4 2007M5 2007M6 2007M7 2007M8 2008M1 2008M2 2008M3 2008M4 2008M5 2008M9 2008M10 2008M11 2008M12 2009M1 2009M6 2009M7 2009M8 Source: Datastream and authors' calculations. U.S. Dollars per foreign currency Figure 12: Export Growth Figure 13: Import Growth 40 50 SDR SRD 30 40 USD USD 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 feb feb dec nov oct apr apr feb feb jan jan dec may jul may jul sep nov aug oct jun jun apr apr jan jan may may jul jul sep aug jun jun mar mar mar mar -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 -50 Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department and Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department and authors' calculations. Median of growth rates of authors' calculations. Median of growth rates of economies for a balanced sample of 52 economies economies for a balanced sample of 52 economies reporting data. reporting data. 11