ABSTRACT The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), in collaboration with the World Bank, hosted a Regional Forum on Climate Risks and Food Security Resilience at the Taj Pamodzi Hotel in Lusaka Zambia from October 25-26, 2018. This was followed by a Field Visit to the SADC Plant Genetic Resources Center (SPGRC), on October 27, 2018. REGIONAL FORUM ON CLIMATE RISKS AND FOOD SECURITY RESILIENCE Proceedings of the Forum | October 25-27, 2018 | Lusaka, Zambia Regional Forum on Climate Risks and Food Security Resilience Lusaka Zambia 25-27 October 2018 i|Page Contents Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................................... ii Acronyms ..................................................................................................................................................... iii Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... vi Background ................................................................................................................................................... 1 Forum Objectives ......................................................................................................................................... 1 Anticipated Outcomes ................................................................................................................................. 1 Summary of Outcomes................................................................................................................................. 2 Summary of Sessions.................................................................................................................................... 4 DAY ONE – October 25, 2018 ................................................................................................................... 4 Proceedings .......................................................................................................................................... 4 DAY TWO – October 26, 2018 ................................................................................................................ 14 Proceedings ........................................................................................................................................ 15 Key Takeaways and Next Steps ............................................................................................................. 21 Closing Session ....................................................................................................................................... 23 DAY THREE – October 27, 2018: Field Visit to the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) Plant Genetic Resources Centre (SPGRC) .............................................................................................. 23 Annexes ...................................................................................................................................................... 26 Annex 1: Concept Note for a Regional Summit on Climate Adaptation and Food Systems Resilience in East and Southern Africa .................................................................................................................... 27 Annex 2: Program - Regional Forum on Climate Risks and Food Security Resilience October 25-26, 2018, Taj Pamodzi Hotel, Lusaka, Zambia ............................................................................................. 30 Annex 3: List of Participants - Regional Forum on Climate Risks and Food Security Resilience - October 25-26, 2018, Taj Pamodzi Hotel Lusaka, Zambia..................................................................... 34 Annex 3a: Biography of Speakers .......................................................................................................... 38 Annex 4: Opening Statement by Her Honor Mrs. Inonge Wina, Vice President of the Republic of Zambia .................................................................................................................................................... 46 Annex 5: Statement by the COMESA Secretary General ...................................................................... 49 Annex 6: Welcome Remarks by Simeon Ehui, Director, Agriculture Global Practice .......................... 52 Annex 7: Keynote Address by Adebisi Araba, Regional Director, Africa, CIAT .................................... 56 Annex 8: Briefing - Concerns and Preparedness for a New El Niño Onset in Sub-Saharan Africa in Late Fall 2018 - September 10, 2018...................................................................................................... 61 i|Page Acknowledgements The Regional Forum Climate Risks and Food Security Resilience was generously supported through a grant from the Food Price Crisis Response Trust Fund, a World Bank-managed program designed to help countries prepare for climate risks and better manage food price volatility. The trust fund was financed by Australia, Canada, Korea and Spain. Front page picture - Editorial credit: Luisa Puccini / Shutterstock.com Disclaimer The proceedings of the forum are made public to support broader knowledge sharing. However, the findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. ii | P a g e Acronyms AADMER ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response ACBP Africa Climate Business Plan ACTESA Alliance for Commodity Trade in Eastern and Southern Africa AHA Centre ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance AIFS ASEAN Integrated Food Security Framework AMAF ASEAN Ministers of Agriculture and Forestry ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations ASEAN CRN ASEAN Climate Resilience Network ARC Africa Risk Capacity ARM Agriculture Risk Management (ARM) AU African Union CA Conservation Agriculture CAT Catastrophe CEO Chief Executive Officer COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa COMSHIP COMESA Seed Harmonization Programme CSA Climate Smart Agriculture CSIP Climate-Smart Investment Plan CSOs Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) DDOs Drawdown Options DINA Drought Impact and Needs Assessment DRR Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) EA Early Action EAFF East African Farmers Federation ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation EAP East Asia Pacific EW Early Warning EWS Early Warning System iii | P a g e FAF Food, Agriculture and Forestry FANRPAN Food Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network GDP Gross Domestic Product Ha Hectares HSNP Hunger Safety Net Program IAPRI Indaba Agriculture Policy Research Institute IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICT Information Communication and Technology IDA International Development Association IFAD International Fund for Agriculture Development IFC International Finance Corporation IFP Investment Project Financing IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IS-EWS Information and Early Warning Systems KLIP Kenyan Livestock Insurance Program MET Meteorological MRVs Measurement Reporting and Verification Systems MSP Managed IT Service Providers NDCs Nationally Determined Contributions NDP National Development Plan OpEx Operating Expenditure Costs PARM Platform for Agriculture Risk Management PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience Q&A Question and Answer RAB Rwanda Agriculture and Animal Resources Board SACAU Southern Africa Confederation of Agriculture Unions SASOP Standard Operating Procedure for Regional Standby Arrangements and Coordination of Joint Disaster Relief and Emergency Response Operation SD Sustainable Development iv | P a g e SEADRIF Southeast Asia Disaster Risk Insurance Facility SFM Sustainable Forest Management SPA-FS Strategic Plan of Action on Food Security USD United States Dollars WASH Water Sanitation and Hygiene WRS Warehouse Receipt System v|Page and Ms. Ina Rutenberg, World Bank Country Executive Summary Director for Zambia. The Common Market for Eastern and Southern A number of presentations were delivered, Africa (COMESA), in collaboration with the during the Forum, to frame the 8 key thematic World Bank, hosted a Regional Forum on sessions highlighting: experiences and lessons Climate Risks and Food Security Resilience at learned from the 2015-16 El Niño; the World the Taj Pamodzi Hotel in Lusaka Zambia from Bank’s Ag-Observatory; innovative approaches 25-26 October 2018. This was followed by a to mitigating production risks at farm level, Field Visit to the SADC Plant Genetic Resources including scaling up of Climate-Smart Center (SPGRC) on the peripheries of Lusaka, on Agriculture (CSA); innovations in financing 27th October 2018. climate/disaster risk initiatives; and initiatives designed to strengthen climate resilience and The Regional Forum brought together food security in the ASEAN region. participants from 13 out of the 21 COMESA Member States: Comoros, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Technical contributions and experiences from Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, the ASEAN region were particularly useful to Seychelles, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia, participants from COMESA member States, and Zimbabwe. Other participants were drawn because the South East Asia region experiences from COMESA Secretariat, World Bank, a wide range of risks while the region’s level of Association of South East Asian Nations risk management is comparatively robust. Two (ASEAN), International Finance Corporation presentations were delivered by the ASEAN (IFC), International Fund for Agriculture Secretariat during the Forum with the aim of Development (IFAD), International Center for sharing lessons and good practices with Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Food Agriculture participants from the east and southern African and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network region, including delegates from three of the (FANRPAN), Indaba Agriculture Policy Research Indian Ocean States of COMESA (Comoros, Institute (IAPRI), and the media. Madagascar and Seychelles). The objectives of the Regional Forum were to: i) Following a series of rich discussions on Day 1 provide a platform for high-level policy makers and Day 2 of the Forum, several key pathways from across the COMESA region to share their to stronger climate resilience and regional food experiences and lessons learned in preparing security were recommended for the COMESA for and responding to the 2015-16 El Niño region. These include: event; and ii) to highlight evidence-driven “no • The need for continued collaboration regrets” policies and investment strategies for between COMESA and the World Bank strengthening the climate resilience of towards building the capacities of member agricultural systems and regional food security. States to address climate vulnerability and The Vice President of the Republic of Zambia, strengthen food security resilience; Her Honor Mrs. Inonge Wina officiated during • A focus on strengthening data systems the Forum together with Dr. Dev Haman, Acting including the need to invest in research to Secretary General of COMESA (representing Ms. generate real-time data to improve the Chileshe Mpundu Kapwepwe, Secretary General quality of evidence-based policies and of COMESA), Dr. Simeon Ehui, Director for decision making; Agriculture Global Practice at the World Bank, vi | P a g e • Scaling up of the World Bank’s Agriculture A Field Trip to the SPGRC was organized by (Ag) Observatory to ensure better COMESA on Day 3 of the Forum, during which preparedness and action vis-à-vis climate six (6) countries participated as follows: risks and food systems resilience; Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, Malawi, Zimbabwe, • The need to scale up CSA and increase and Ethiopia. The SPGRC was established in exploration of innovations and collective 1989 and it hosts a gene bank for storage of approaches to addressing climate risks; plant genetic resources for the purposes of • The necessity for Member States to strengthening food security resilience and intensify regional cooperation for agriculture development in the Southern disaster/climate risk management and African Development Community (SADC) integrate systems for development of region. strategic food reserves within the context of COMESA; • A need to improve stability of financial systems. This includes among others, shifting the management of financial risks into market systems while also designing mechanisms to support the spread of financial services particularly to vulnerable populations. • A request for Member States to diversify income streams and food production systems to include nutrient dense foods that address malnutrition particularly for the most vulnerable in society; • Emphasis on the need to strengthen the role and visibility of the private sector in managing and mitigating climate risks to ensure food security resilience; • The need to strengthen and enable innovation in the area on insurance to manage agriculture risk; • The importance of strengthening meteorological services through building of human and institutional capacities at required levels; vii | P a g e during the Forum included Dr. Dev Haman, Background Acting Secretary General of COMESA (representing Ms. Chileshe Mpundu Kapwepwe, During the period 2015-16 record-high Secretary General of COMESA), Dr. Simeon temperatures, droughts and floods, fueled by Ehui, Director for Agriculture Global Practice at one of the strongest El Niño events in recent the World Bank, and Ms. Ina Rutenberg, World decades crippled agricultural production across Bank Country Director for Zambia. east and southern Africa. By early 2016, millions of households faced food insecurity as crops failed, incomes dropped, and food stocks Forum Objectives tightened. Several countries in the east and southern African region were hit particularly The objectives of the Regional Forum were as hard and levels of preparedness and responses follows: varied across the region. Furthermore, evidence 1. To provide a platform for high-level policy points to a fact there is currently a 70% chance makers, from across the COMESA region, to of an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) share their experiences and lessons learned looming in the horizon (See Concept note in in preparing for and responding to the Annex 1 and El Niño brief in Annex 5). 2015-16 El Niño event; and It is against this backdrop that COMESA in 2. To highlight evidence-driven “no regrets” collaboration with the World Bank, hosted a policies and investment strategies for Regional Forum on Climate Risks and Food strengthening the climate resilience of Security Resilience at the Taj Pamodzi Hotel in agricultural systems and regional food Lusaka Zambia from 25-26 October 2018. The security. Regional Forum brought together participants The Forum also provided an opportunity for from thirteen COMESA Member States, namely: COMESA member States and the Secretariat to Comoros, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, highlight their development priorities, engage Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, Seychelles, with partners, and learn from the experience of Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia, and other regional groupings such as ASEAN (See Zimbabwe. Representatives from COMESA Concept Note in Annex 1). Secretariat, World Bank, Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), International Finance Corporation (IFC), International Fund Anticipated Outcomes for Agriculture Development (IFAD), International Center for Tropical Agriculture Anticipated outcomes of the Forum included (CIAT), Food Agriculture and Natural Resources stronger awareness among policy makers on Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN), Indaba the challenges, gaps, and good practices from Agriculture Policy Research Institute (IAPRI) and within the region and elsewhere and robust the media, also participated in the Forum. appreciation for the supportive role that the World Bank, COMESA and other entities, can Her Honor Mrs. Inonge Wina, Vice President of play in helping the region to confront and the Republic of Zambia, officiated during the better manage climate risks and uncertainty. Forum and declared it open on the first day. The Office of the Vice President in Zambia is A Field Visit to the SADC Plant Genetic responsible for managing and mitigating Resources Center (SPGRC) was organized on disasters in Zambia. Other high-level officials 27th October 2018 with the objective of 1|Page showcasing activities at the Centre designed to Zimbabwe, ASEAN, CIAT, COMESA, FANRPAN, ensure agriculture development and food IAPRI, IFC, PARM/IFAD, and the World Bank. security resilience in the region. It was Other conversations during the forum were anticipated that several member States and focused on innovative approaches to mitigating other participants would visit the Centre to gain production risks at farm level. These included an insight into the involvement of the SRGRC in discussions focused on agriculture risk supporting countries to deal with climate management as well as the role of private vulnerability in the southern African region. sector in managing and mitigating climate risks to ensure food security resilience. Summary of Outcomes The Forum further deliberated and reflected on the COMESA Seed Harmonization Programme A number of presentations were delivered, (COMSHIP) and the COMESA Secretariat’s during the Regional Forum, to frame the 8 key interventions vis-à-vis Climate Smart Agriculture thematic sessions that highlighted issues (CSA). The Pilot Program for Climate Resilience ranging from: experiences and lessons learned (PPCR) in Zambia was also presented to provide from 2015-16 El Niño, to presentations on the perspectives on interventions being undertaken World Bank Agriculture Observatory, innovative particularly in the western region of Zambia. approaches to mitigating production risks at Experts from the World Bank presented the farm level, including scaling up of Climate Smart Agriculture (Ag) Observatory and its procedures Agriculture (CSA), innovations in financing were illustrated with a view to raising the climate/disaster risk initiatives, and collective awareness of, and appreciation by, COMESA pathways to climate resilience and food security member States and other participants in the ASEAN region. concerning its existence, benefits and modalities for its establishment. The World Following a series of rich discussions and Bank’s Treasury Department also shared knowledge sharing on Day 1 and Day 2 of the insights (via Webex) on available financial Forum, various key pathways to stronger products that can support member states in climate resilience and regional food security financing disaster risk response, including were noted for the COMESA region. Day 1 of Continency and Emergency Response the Forum enabled member States and other Components (CERCs). experts to share lessons and deliberate on experiences, preparedness, and responses On Day 2 of the Forum, participants shared concerning the 2015-16 El Niño (See Program in perspectives on several topics including lessons Annex 2). COMESA member States presented: a from the Integrated Forest Landscape Project in background and highlights on the impact of the Zambia and challenges and opportnities in El Niño as well as climatic impacts, specifically catalyzing climate change adaptation. Some on agriculture and food systems, and shared highlights on innovations in financing lessons, experiences and good practices. climate/disaster risk initiatives and a discussion Recommendations were made on how best to on scaling up climate smart agriculture in Africa prepare for future climatic events at national were also presented. In addition, the Forum level and from a regional perspective. featured examples on the design of Climate Presenters, panelists and discussants during the Smart Investment Plans (CSIPs) in Cote D’Ivoire, Forum were drawn from Djibouti, Kenya, Mali and Zambia. These were noted as key Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, Somalia, Zambia, instruments that would enable countries to 2|Page move from investment ideas to formulating both technical and financial strengths to work bankable projects. with member States in realizing the above purposes. Two presentations from the ASEAN Secretariat were particularly useful to participants/experts Participants also stressed the importance of from COMESA member States, because the strengthening data systems including the need South East Asian region experiences a wide to invest in research to generate real-time data range of climate risks while the region’s level of towards improving the quality of evidence- risk management is comparatively robust. In based decision making. In this regard, a framing the discussion on perspectives from the recommendation was made for the need to ASEAN region, a presentation on striking a scale up the Agriculture (Ag) Observatory at balance in managing El Niño and La Niña in east country-level to ensure better preparedness Asian agriculture was delivered by the World and action vis-a-vis climate risks and food Bank. The ASEAN Secretariat then proceeded to systems resilience. The Ag. Observatory share lessons and good practices with presentation on Day 1, which included an participants from the east and southern African illustration on the modalities for its use was region, including the Indian Ocean States of well received by participants who expressed COMESA (Comoros, Madagascar and keen interest to speedily establish it in their Seychelles). Presentations from ASEAN were countries. According to the presenters, focused on ASEAN’s cooperation about disaster establishing the Ag. Observatory is relatively management and climate change as well as affordable for member States. Another key ASEAN’s Integrated Food Security Framework recommendation advanced during the Forum Strategic Plan of Action on Food Security (2016- stresses the need to scale up CSA and further 2020) and ASEAN’s Food Security and Climate increase exploration of innovations and Resilience-Related Initiatives. These collective approaches to addressing climate deliberations indicated above are presented risks. Member States were also encouraged to below (see Summary of Sessions on intensify regional cooperation for climate risk page 4). management and integrate systems for development of strategic food reserves. Pathways to stronger climate resilience resulting from the Forum discussions include Furthermore, a need to improve stability of among others, a need for continued financial systems was highlighted as a crucial collaboration between COMESA and the World issue in the cause to address climate Bank towards building the capacities of member vulnerability. This includes among others, a States to address climate vulnerability and need to shift the management of financial risks strengthen food security resilience. The Forum into market systems while also designing noted, that due to COMESA’s mandate whose mechanisms to support the spread of financial focus is on attaining regional integration services particularly to vulnerable populations. through trade and investment as well as policy Member States were also advised to diversify harmonization and its multiple-nations income streams and food production systems to convening power, a partnership with the World include nutrient dense foods that address Bank to support member States in managing malnutrition, particularly for the most and mitigating climate risks and achieving food vulnerable in society. systems resilience would be useful, efficient and Finally, a Field Trip to the SPGRC was cost effective. The World Bank is equipped with successfully coordinated on Day 3. Six countries 3|Page participated, i.e. Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, To identify the effective solutions, regional Malawi, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia. SPGRC hosts a decision makers need: to have better access to gene bank for storage of plant genetic policy evidence to assess existing approaches, resources that are meant to ensure food and the full range of risk mitigation, transfer, security resilience and agriculture development and coping options and associated trade-offs. in the event off shocks in the region. The Centre works in collaboration with each of the 16 SADC Proceedings member States to conserve and preserve the Day One of the Forum was therefore designed genetic diversity and viability of Southern to enable participants to understand climate Africa’s plant stocks. The Centre also performs risks (including ENSO-driven risks) and their important roles in research, documentation, implications. Sessions were designed to outline education and training, together with the threat and highlight innovative ways in counterparts at national level. which countries are responding to both extreme climate risks (e.g., El Niño/La Niña) and Summary of Sessions the longer-term threat of climate change. The day began with breakfast from 07h30 to DAY ONE – October 25, 2018 08h30. This enabled participants to meet, greet Despite strong growth potential, African and network. This was followed by the Official agriculture is facing serious challenges, Opening Session, during which Her Honor Mrs. including human and naturally induced Inonge Wina, Vice President of the Republic of disasters. Food systems are increasingly Zambia, officiated. strained by low productivity, low public and private investment in agriculture, weak policies, Opening Session lack of real time data, rapid population growth, In her opening remarks Mrs. Wina said, even and climate change. One in four people in Sub- though Zambia has been recording steady Saharan Africa are chronically undernourished. economic growth in recent years, poverty levels The food security challenge will only grow as particularly in the rural areas, remained at climate change intensifies threatening crop and significantly high levels. This is even though the livestock production. If no adaptation occurs, country experienced a reduction in urban production of maize, the region’s most poverty by 25.6 percent, from 42 percent in important staple crop could decline by up to 1991 to 23.4 percent in 2015, while rural 40% by 2050. Business as usual approaches will poverty declined from 88 to 76.6 during the inevitably fall short as climate threats intensify. same period. She said that the Government of Key questions to be explored include: 1) how Zambia has emphasized Sustainable are agriculture value chains and food systems Development (SD) as one of the pillars on which effected (i.e., yields/output, jobs/incomes, food Zambia’s long-term Vision 2030 is based, with a access, nutrition) by weather-induced shocks; view to reducing poverty and improving rural 2) what does the future hold under likely livelihoods. The Vice President said the Seventh scenarios (i.e., temp/rainfall changes, National Development Plan (7NDP), 2017-2021, anticipated yield drops, etc.); and 3) what are gives priority to labor intensive sectors, such as the implications for household welfare, regional agriculture to achieving the aspirations of Vision food security, and poverty reduction? (see 2030 whose aim is to ensure that Zambia Concept Note in Annex 1) becomes a prosperous middle-income country 4|Page by 2030. She said Zambia is keen to strengthen affected by climate change, which in turn the policy and regulatory environment for affects agricultural production and increases agriculture development - a sector that the prevalence of communicable diseases. He provides employment, food security and said COMESA’s mandate is to attain regional nutrition, for the rural populations. integration, and this is also essential for fighting climate change and its risks. Dr. Haman said agricultural production has a potential to enhance poverty reduction and is also a means to creating employment for the growing youth population. He called on member States and experts to work towards strengthening food security resilience and view the resilience agenda as part and parcel of our livelihood systems. Dr. Haman said COMESA is working with its member States to prepare and respond to the effects of climate change. He stressed Her Honor the Vice President of the Republic of Zambia, Mrs. the importance of a region that remains Inonge Wina meets Dr. Simeon Ehui (right), Dr. Dev Haman (center), and Ms. Ina Rutenberg (left) on her arrival at the Taj connected and interconnected with a conducive Pamodzi Hotel, Lusaka Zambia – 25 October 2018 regional policy environment for technology development and an environment that enables Mrs. Wina said agriculture performance in sharing of experiences and knowledge. He also Zambia declined from 8.5% to 5.3% in 2015 due expressed the need for awareness raising and to the 2015-16 El Niño and that the lack of for technologies and mechanisms that make effective evidence-based planning, limits agriculture more attractive to youth, who are effective preparedness and responses to the our future leaders (see Annex 4b). effects of climate change/risks. She said there is a need to build scientific knowledge and In his opening remarks, Dr. Simeon Ehui, World evidence to manage climate change risks and to Bank Director for Agriculture Global Practice improve food security resilience. This includes said, the World Bank is increasing its sharing of lessons learnt, experiences and best investments in climate smart agriculture practices on addressing climate risks. She interventions as can be seen in Niger and emphasized the need to raise awareness of the Rwanda. Under the Climate Change Action Plan, issues relating to climate vulnerability and food the World Bank is committed to working with systems resilience, and urged the media to countries to deliver climate-smart agriculture enhance their knowledge sharing, that achieves the triple win of increased communication and advocacy on the subject. productivity, enhanced resilience, and reduced She ended her official opening statement by the emissions. He said this commitment amounted stressing the fact that climate change is here, to a record-setting $20.5 billion in climate- and it is real (see Annex 4a). related finance delivered during the last fiscal year - the result of an institution-wide effort to The Acting Secretary General of COMESA, Dr. mainstream climate considerations into all Dev Haman (reading a statement on behalf of development projects. Dr Ehui further pointed Ms. Chileshe Mpundu Kapwepwe, Secretary out the importance of increased investments General of COMESA) said COMESA member and good policies towards fighting climate States are agrarian economies at risk of being change and its impact on the livelihoods of 5|Page vulnerable populations. He further informed the invest in planning to improve quality of Forum that the World Bank’s engagement on evidence-based decision-making. Dr Araba said climate action with client countries is rapidly that investment in research and real-time data growing. This includes among others, the Bank’s for in depth analytics is crucial for addressing commitment to develop climate-smart climate vulnerability and that there is a need to agriculture profiles and/or investment plans for view investments in climate infrastructure as 40+ countries. He said that the Regional Forum public goods. He stressed the importance of was essential in that it provided an opportunity improving the stability of financial systems, for participants to share experiences and best while managing financial risks should be shifted practices on preparedness and action vis a vis to the market system. Dr. Araba is keen to see climate risks and food security resilience. He mechanisms that support the strengthening of said safeguarding livelihoods and strengthening financial services, particularly to vulnerable resilience in the face of growing climate threats populations. He said that there is a need to is among the greatest challenges of the 21st promote knowledge sharing through Managed Century and that this is particularly true in the IT Service Providers (MSP) taking into case of agriculture (see Annex 4c). consideration the interconnectivity of the food systems. He further noted that the need to step Key Note Address up research capacity to invest in systems to build resilience across the region and to look beyond climate risks, to include soils, pests and disease management. He encouraged COMESA member States to enhance open and accessible data that informs early warning and action and stressed the significance of diversifying income streams and food production systems to include nutrient dense foods to address malnutrition particularly for the most vulnerable populations. Dr. Araba said there is a need to diversify food production and decision making, Dr. Debisi Araba addressing the Regional Forum at the Taj Pamodzi Hotel in Lusaka Zambia while also diversifying means of income beyond on-farm production. In addition, he said, A key note address was delivered by Dr. Debisi understanding the dynamics/systems under Araba Regional Director for Africa at the which agriculture operates is crucial and that International Center for Tropical Agriculture every person should note that the best time to (CIAT) to set the scene for the Forum. He called mitigate disaster was yesterday, and the next upon African Leaders, through the Vice best time is today. “Today’s bush is tomorrow’s President, to pay critical attention to the risks forest”. Dr. Araba further noted that due to that climate change poses to the livelihoods of weak foundations in the agriculture the region’s populace. Dr. Araba said the transformation agenda, susceptibility to climate regional forum is a good effort towards change remains high. Climate weather achieving agriculture transformation and there variability accounts for over 30% of crop yield, is a need to strengthen regional cooperation to while shocks lead to food insecurity, effectively manage disaster/climate risk. He said malnutrition, migration, IDP, conflicts, political there is a need to integrate systems for effects (see Annex 4d). development of strategic food reserves and to 6|Page Session 1 and Session 2 witnessed a drop in milk yields while, over 6800 Session 1 and Session 2 were amalgamated to ha of crop land was destroyed. This led to make up for time lost in the opening session. several technical and policy interventions such Both sessions were moderated by Stephen as: scientific modelling through- sustainable D’Alessandro (Senior Agriculture Economist, intensive decision support system (SIDESS) to World Bank) and titled: Sharing Experiences and help farmers increase productivity and reduce Lessons Learned from 2015-16 El Niño. Mr. effects of climate change, a national disaster D’Alessandro outlined the rationale for the and preparedness plan, national contingency session before introducing the six panelists as plan for drought, and a task force on drought follows: and food shortage, etc. Kudzai Ndidzano, Acting Deputy Director in the Doshanie Kadokera, Economist in the Ministry Ministry of Environment Water and Climate for of Agriculture, Irrigation and Water Zimbabwe, presented perspectives on Development for Malawi, shared perspectives Strengthening El Niño Response in Zimbabwe. In on Strengthening El Niño Response in Malawi. his presentation he noted that the El Niño of Mr. Kadokera said Zimbabwe experienced a 2015-16 was classified as ‘Very Strong’. It strong El Niño phenomenon for 2 years in a affected multiple sectors including agriculture, row. Impacts of the 2015-16 El Niño include: livestock and water sanitation and hygiene reduced rainfall, stagnant productivity, despite (WASH), leading to reduced crop yields, efforts to increase production, deficit in maize household food insecurity and malnutrition. supply, leading to increased food insecurity, This triggered a policy response leading to the increased pests (locusts, army worm), dwindling development of a drought risk management water levels, affecting fisheries productivity by strategy and action plan. He said seasonal 90%, sectoral losses of up to $240.7 million, forecasts do not necessarily lead to particularly losses in cereals. Furthermore, preparedness and that timely dissemination of Malawi has adopted agriculture insurance, and climate information is very critical for is a member of Africa Risk Capacity (ARC) since contingency planning. He stressed the 2012. Mr. Kadokera stressed the importance of importance of strategic grain reserves and data quality and access as well as packaging and noted that Early Warning (EW) and Early Action delivery channels, as being critical for the (EA) systems as being crucial. He recommended success of agriculture insurance products. He the adoption of the watershed management noted that despite positive policy processes approach and diversification of livelihoods evolving, they are fragmented in terms of options. practice and that emergency responses tend to be reactive rather than proactive. Impacts Mupenzi Mutimura, Senior Research Fellow for result in high humanitarian costs, high Feed Resources and Animal Nutrition at the dependency on development partners and Rwanda Agriculture and Animal Resources unpredictable public investment. He said that Board (RAB), shared insights on Rwanda El Niño there is a need therefore, to employ multiple and Climate Change Resilient Livestock. He said integrated risk management tools and to El Niño effects are seen through periodic floods strengthen capacity to operate them, while also and droughts, early onset and prolonged dry promoting crop diversification and use of seasons, leading to food insecurity and drought tolerant varieties. In his malnutrition. In his presentation he said recommendations Mr. Kadokera said that there Rwanda lost over 920 livestock animals and is also a need for proactive responses, and a 7|Page favorable policy environment to incentivize ban on unlicensed selling of maize as well as private sector investment. Countries must price controls and controlled maize exports in establish and fund robust institutional the medium to long term period. Mr. Chapoto machinery and build capacity gaps, while also said Government responses to El Niño in 3 strengthening their ability to operate existing countries triggered adverse impacts on incomes EW tools. There is a need to promote joint of poor farmers dependent on maize sales. In programming and contingency planning and to Zambia, adverse impacts were more as a result employ multiple /integrated risk management of trade policies, than from the El Niño tools. phenomenon. He recommended a combination involving promotion of regional grain market Antony Chapoto, Research Director at Indaba integration, and social protection and Agriculture Policy Research Institute (IAPRI), mitigation at the farm level. This includes presented the outcomes of an IAPRI/IFPRI/ strengthening of grain market information World Bank study on El Niño Impacts and Trade systems, improving climate risk mitigation at Policy and Implications on Household Food the farm level, design of innovative risk Access and Welfare. Mr. Chapoto said East and financing strategies and adaptive social Southern Africa experienced the strongest El- protection for the most vulnerable. Niño’s on record in recent decades, affecting agricultural production in several countries in Osman Hassan Abdi, Technical Advisor in the the region. The regional food shortage triggered Ministry of Planning of Somalia, shared policy responses aimed at ensuring food perspectives on Somalia’s Drought Impact availability. Some of the effects of the El Niño Needs Assessment and Recovery and Response include: record high temperatures, droughts, Framework. He presented the unique situation floods, food insecurity due to crop failure, of Somalia as a relatively stable country that is decrease in incomes, tightened food and labor progressing towards peace and stability markets, national emergencies, and export following a decades long civil war that ravaged bans. Mr. Chapoto said countries moved the country since 1991. Cycles of natural aggressively to secure food stocks, stabilize disaster have increased along with the number prices, and ensure the availability of maize. In of people needing humanitarian assistance. He sharing the findings of the IAPRI/IFPRI/World talked about the need for Drought Impact and Bank study on El Niño Impacts, he stressed how Needs Assessment (DINA) interventions that in general, policies relatively helped some low- could support recovery and build resilience into income consumers of maize. Mr. Chapoto also recovery efforts. DINA also highlights needs shared perspectives on the trade policy across multiple sectors such as transport, responses and expected impacts in three environment and natural resources, water etc., countries (Tanzania, Malawi and Zambia) in that will assist in building greater resilience. Mr. which IAPRI has conducted a study following Abdi said, the structural drivers of drought the El Niño 2015-2016. These policies areas related crises need to be addressed across included: Maize export restrictions, Temporary multiple sectors to mitigate the impact of ban on maize meal exports in Tanzania, while increasingly frequent droughts. He said the bulk Zambia introduced price controls and buffer of damage from drought was the environment stocks procured through the Food Reserve and natural resources, indicating a lack of Agency. Policies in both countries were only for resilience in management of this sector. He a short-term timeframe. About Malawi, the further pointed out that most of losses are policy aimed at facilitating maize imports and a witnessed in agriculture and livestock, and this 8|Page reflects the dependency of Somalia’s economy study, three areas of risk management are on these sectors and their vulnerability to found to warrant priority in Zambia, and with droughts. It was noted that a large portion of significant potential for synergizing actions recovery needs are in the agriculture and undertaken across them. These are: livestock sectors, which are the most impacted. strengthening early warning systems to detect Urban development and municipal services threats to food security, developing climate need to reflect the trend towards urbanization smart agriculture and increasing resilience to and the role of urban centers in the context of climate-related shocks through diversification, crises. In the long run the National and developing the Zambian Commodity Development Plan (NDP) seeks to develop a Exchange (ZAMACE) and building shock- New Economic Model including diversification responsive safety net. of production sectors, systems capacity and The joint sessions 1 and 2 concluded with regulations to support an expanded portfolio of questions and comments from the floor as well productive capacities as well as improving as answers and clarifications from the panelists: public and private capacities. 1. Question: What are the major barriers to Ademola Braimoh, Senior Natural Resources preparedness and response in Zimbabwe Management Specialist for the World Bank, and what are the areas of highest needs for delivered a presentation on the Zambia investment? Agriculture Risk Assessment Report (2018). He Response: Some of the major barriers to began by highlighting the importance of the preparedness and response (and therefore Agriculture sector for the Zambian economy. He areas requiring highest investment) in said even though the sector provides a Zimbabwe include, among others, difficulty livelihood and incomes for over 70% of the in accessing reliable data from the population, it contributes minimally to the Meteorological Department and weak country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). He linkages of irrigation infrastructure to farm said, bad agriculture performance impacted the level. rest of sectors during the period 2013-2015 lowering total economic growth by 2%. Dr. 2. Question: Why are related policies not very Braimoh further stated that the agriculture responsive? sector needs to be risk assessed because Response: Data quality affecting adverse effects of risks: affect the performance responsiveness, particularly for the ARC and of farms and the larger agricultural value chain, technical information on crop varieties are and further pose serious consequences to not accurate. It is also essential to note that stakeholders and consumers. Agriculture risks country contexts vary and therefore, have potential to disrupt value chain response models may not necessarily be development and cause extensive financial and generic, but specific to each country economic losses. The World Bank Group context. undertook a study on agriculture sector risk management in Zambia. The assessment was Session 3 aimed at analyzing principal risks and Session 3 was moderated by Nalishebo identifying pathways to manage those risks. Meebelo (Senior Consultant, World Bank). The Major risks in Zambia are witnessed under the session was titled: Innovative Approaches to lens of production, markets and the enabling Mitigating Production Risks at Farm Level. Dr. environment. According to the findings of the Meebelo said the role of regionalism as well as 9|Page that of the private sector were crucial elements sub-Saharan countries. He said PARM is an for addressing climate vulnerability in the initiative of the G7 and G20 countries, with a COMESA region. She also noted the work being mission to raise awareness about Agriculture undertaken by institutions such as IFAD through Risk Management (ARM) at local and global PARM to assist African countries in their search levels. PARM is a result of discussions on food for effective tools to manage agriculture risk. security and agricultural growth and is a four- Session 3 panelists intervened as follows: year multi-donor partnership aimed at making risk management an integral part of policy John Mukuka, Acting CEO and Seed Expert for planning and implementation in the agricultural ACTESA/COMESA presented the COMESA Seed sector. Dr. Siame spoke on the following areas Harmonization Programme (COMSHIP) and its under which PARM is supporting countries: how linkages to the theme of the Forum. Dr. Mukuka to deal with risks (mitigation, transfer, coping), said COMSHIP is a regional program designed instruments (tools) and strategies to manage under COMESA’s mandate that encourages risks, assessment of layers of responsibility, policy harmonization, collectiveness and agriculture risk management information interconnectedness of member States towards systems studies in seven countries (Senegal, achieving common developmental goals for the Niger, Cabo Verde, Uganda, Cameroon, Ethiopia region. He said the main objective of COMSHIP and Mozambique), integration between is to facilitate seed trade through reduced costs information and early warning systems (IS- of doing business. The key areas of EWS), other feasibility studies undertaken in harmonization are seed certification, variety PARM participating countries (e.g. EWS and release, and phytosanitary issues. Dr. Mukuka Warehouse Receipt System (WRS) currently presented the four strategic focus areas of ongoing in Zambia – informed by the recent COMSHIP as: domestication – under which World Bank ARM Assessment). Dr. Siame said, a seven-member states have aligned their holistic approach to agricultural risks means national seed laws with the COMESA initiative, considering a broad range of risks and a broad awareness – under which COMSHIP has been range of solutions, and that no risk is officially launched in 18-member states, considered in isolation (OECD, 2009). This capacity building which includes several implies dealing at the same time with different trainings, and seeds for small-scale farmers. He and synchronized actions to manage risks. said a variety catalogue has been developed and is operational. Forty-nine crop varieties have been registered as regional varieties. In terms of how COMSHIP is linked to climate risks and food systems resilience, he said the program seeks to encourage production of seeds that are adaptable to: changes in diseases He also said that, in managing risks, timely and pests, the need to reduce carbon and water access to information and capacity building foot prints, CSA (early maturing and drought activities are essential to agricultural tolerant varieties), and conservation stakeholders, and to extension workers or agriculture. policy makers to enable informed decision- making and progressive skills enhancement on Dr. Dick Siame, Country Program Officer, IFAD, ARM practices. presented the activities of the Platform for Agriculture Risk Management (PARM) in eight Augustine Langyintuo, Senior Private Sector Specialist for IFC, gave perspectives on the Role 10 | P a g e and Experience of the Private Sector in Managing and Mitigating Climate Risks to Ensure Food Security Resilience. Mr. Langyintuo said key climate risk factors include droughts, floods and extreme temperatures and spoke about impacts on agriculture as being either direct or indirect. He also shared perspectives on how to achieve agriculture growth with resilience, stating that this requires strong political will to enable resilient markets, resilient agriculture and resilient people. In Left to right: Ms. Ina Rutenberg (Zambia World Bank Country presenting perspectives on the role of the Director) and Dr. Augustine Langyintuo private sector in improving adaptation to Mclay Kanyangarara, Climate Change Advisor at climate risks, he noted the need to: develop and COMESA Secretariat, highlighted the accelerate adaptation of innovative climate Significance of Regionalism in Addressing resilient technologies and services (including Climate Smart Agriculture. He began his CSA), catalyze greater investment in presentation by saying that the reality of vulnerability reduction, integrate adaptation climate change is no longer debatable and went into business strategies and investments, on to present perspectives from COMESA. He develop products that will enable lower costs said COMESA has been involved in Conservation and more effective responses to climate change Agriculture (CA) and Climate Smart Agriculture as a basis for profitable businesses, mobilize (CSA) activities in the region and that the financial resources and technical capacity for uptake of CA/CSA remains sluggish, despite adaptation, leverage the efforts of governments demonstrated and proven successes. He in policy formulation and implementation, and explained why the results have been uninspiring engage civil society and communities in to farmers including the fact that technology is adaptation efforts. He said the private sector is largely supply driven and donor funded, while essential for development of technologies well intentioned input support programmes around issues such as drought tolerant input entrench dependency in many rural people. He varieties and indigenous crops. He outlined also said some CSA approaches such as digging some barriers for the private sector, noting basins involves tough physical work, and hence among them: risk avoidance and limited access a lack of interest by many, including the youth. to weather and climate data. He said for the Furthermore, small holder farming is not private sector to respond and participate regarded as a business. Dr. Kanyangarara gave effectively in managing agriculture risks, there is perspectives on what should be done a need to increase their awareness and include differently. He said, commercialisation is crucial them in national adaptation efforts as well as – that production must be seen for its profit at engaging them in product development and all levels, while integrating new technologies Public Private Partnerships (PPPs). are key to raising productivity. He said, we need to undertake a judicious selection of success prone farmers that can be role models to others as participants in pilot initiatives. He stressed the importance of the value chain approach which ensures private sector engagement/ 11 | P a g e participation, while allowing governments to Question: Recent research showed that certain focus on their core mandates. He further said types of seeds can yield 40% more than the teaching, exposing and training school children conventional seed variety. Are there efforts by on sustainable development to generate a COMESA to access that variety? cadre of youth better equipped to do things Response: COMESA works with two correctly when they graduate, should be organizations – Eastern African Farmers considered. Partnering with others to create Federation (EAFF) and Southern Africa more value and synergy is also key. He later Confederation of Agriculture Unions (SACAU) - presented activities undertaken in COMESA to identify good varieties and incorporate them member States and said most of them were on the COMESA Seed catalogue and to support baselines and pilots aimed at driving policy. the financing of seed testing to enable them to Yvonne Mulenga, Monitoring and Evaluation become available to farmers. (M&E) Specialist on the Pilot Program for Response: COMESA does not release seed Climate Resilience (PPCR) in Zambia, shared varieties as such. To be registered in the perspective on the Zambia Strengthening regional variety catalogue, a variety must be Climate Resilience (PPCR Phase II) Project. Ms. released in at least two countries. COMESA Mulenga delivered a statement on behalf of the works with regional farmer organizations to National Coordinator for PPCR, Ms. Chitembo K. bring to their attention, newly released high- Chunga. She said PPCR is designed to assist the productivity varieties. government to mainstream climate change into the National Development Plan (NDP). PPCR is Comment: CSA is perceived differently in working in four regions of Zambia and different countries and communities. Using implements two projects (1. Drought prone indigenous seeds or improved seeds therefore, areas; 2. Flooded areas in the Western part of is dependent on the context of each Zambia) and seeks to generate innovations and community. help communities to adapt to the effects of droughts and floods - to ensure communities Comment: Sustainability of CSA and resilience are resilient to drought. Areas of focus include: projects should be given serious considerations. promotion of CSA, crop varieties and livestock Uganda for instance has a good example of an breeds that can adapt, financing of water insurance/subsidy program involving 65,000 harvesting structures for small scale irrigation, farmers. What is most important is to increase canal rehabilitation (drainage) in flooded areas incomes for farmers. (seven priority canals in Western Province), solar powered boreholes, facilitating access to Session 4 markets, diversification (e.g. fish farming in Session 4 was moderated by Caroline Franca, flooded areas), encouraging non-farm GIS Specialist and Erick Fernandes, Lead livelihoods (honey, mushroom, crafts), roads Agriculture Specialist at the World Bank. The and improved supply of inputs. PPCR is planning session was titled: The World Bank’s Ag to develop open data sharing information Observatory. Erick Fernandes and Carolina system (climatic information) and bulking Franca presented the World Bank’s Agriculture centers to reduce post-harvest losses. (Ag) Observatory. The presenters shared their perspectives on data availability and the need Some salient points during the Q&A Session to harness the power of data to inform policy included: and in making strategic decisions to transform 12 | P a g e agriculture. Carolina Franca gave an illustration countries and is in the process of acquiring to participants on how the Ag Observatory rights to the data to make it public in many works and used an example of Chisamba in countries. The approximate subscription Zambia to show real time data. The Ag amount for the data is $50,000 per year for real Observatory aims to support partners to access time data. The presenters recommended the and deploy high resolution and near real time possibility of regional bodies such as COMESA ag-meteorological data. Other existing data to host this initiative and to encourage systems include: FEWSNET, GEOGLAM, countries to subscribe to it. GIEWSNET, and ground weather stations. These Some of the challenges noted for the Ag. systems can be used to track food and Observatory include, among others, agriculture systems. According to the infrastructure challenges in the countries. presenters, it is difficult to maintain weather About the ASEAN experience, the institution has stations in physical setups but, investing in invested huge amounts of finances into cloud systems has less operating expenditure Information Communication and Technology costs (OpEx). (ICT) and several systems to facilitate resilience This session included several discussants as for agriculture and food security. Meanwhile, follows: Ademola Braimoh, Senior Natural the Zambia Ministry of Agriculture (Early Resources Management Specialist for the World Warning Unit) has faced challenges in decision Bank, Sithembile Mwamakamba, Head, Climate making due to lack of reliable data. They at Change Portfolio, FANRPAN, Chitalu Zimba, times must rely on raw internet data to make Principal Statistician, Early Warning Systems decisions due to the lack of meteorological and Food Security, Pham Quang Minh, stations in all parts of Zambia. Therefore, the Assistant Director, Food, Agriculture and systems presented by World Bank Ag Forestry Division, ASEAN Observatory would help the country in terms of planning for food security resilience. Major The presenters and discussants shared their challenges faced by countries are not only perspectives on the Ag. Observatory and the related to accessing large data, but also the need for real time data to aid policy and ability to analyze data and make sense of it. This decision making. In Ghana there is an effort for poses a challenge to government Met services localized and timely insight for farmers. There is to deliver data needs. The challenge also good satellite decadal data which can now presents an opportunity for collaboration assist in planning and policy implementation. between private sector and government to The data is currently private but, there is need provide climate data services. Some questions to make it public so that local farmers can were asked following this session: benefit in their farming practices. With the new systems available it is now possible to generate Question: Given the El Niño event which is data in real time to enable modelling of climate looming in the horizon, how long would it take data. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate to deploy the World Bank Ag. Observatory Change (IPCC) report shows that climate systems in the countries? stresses and shocks are now more frequent • Answer: With $1 million, the project could than ever. This means real time data is ever be rolled out to all African countries and it more valuable now and is critical for agriculture does not take long to deploy. transformation. The World Bank has received a grant to make the data available in a few • Answer: CIMMYT conducted a trial for seeds that performed well in the last El 13 | P a g e Niño. The report has been released in the and Contingency Emergency Component. They public and is ready for use. further stated that Catastrophe (CAT) Bonds, • Answer: Africa is not doing enough to i.e. financial products that are being used by invest in climate information systems to governments to transfer risks to the market, address climate risks and food security and CAT Drawdown Options (DDOs), provide resilience. For this reason, there is need for immediate liquidity and allow governments to the following: a policy shift to encourage access financial resources before a disaster, climate and evidence-based planning, and strikes. The World Bank can assist governments budgetary allocation and targeted assess risk exposure, design and execute capital investments. market transactions to transfer risks. Session on World Bank Group Products for IBRD DAY TWO – October 26, 2018 and IDA Countries In the context of increasing global competition, This session was facilitated via Webex video rapid population growth, and climate conferencing. The presenters, speaking to the uncertainty that defies borders, no country can Forum from Washington DC., USA were, afford to go it alone. Progress on developing Antonio S. Davila-Bonazzi, Lead Financial Officer climate risk preparedness and response plans is and Abigail Baca, Disaster Risk Management variable across the region. Stronger regional Specialist, in the Treasury Department of the collaboration in confronting common World Bank. The two presenters shared challenges like climate change is needed more perspectives and available products within the than ever. While regionalism has shown context of financing disaster risks and promise in strengthening disaster preparedness catastrophe bonds. Their presentation and response capacity of member states and highlighted the following: Disaster Risk food systems, Regional Economic Communities Financing basics, Overview of available (RECs) in Africa, as elsewhere, have distinct products, CAT Bonds, Case Studies on Pacific institutional competencies and policy Alliance CAT Bond and Pandemic Insurance, and coherence around longer-term development transactions completed by the World Bank. The planning, resilience, and food security presenters highlighted the fact that the cost of objectives. Each region would benefit from disasters continues to rise, citing global sharing knowledge and experiences and economic losses from natural disasters as learning from others. While some countries can exceeding $300 billion per year, forcing 26 mobilize funding for programming at national million people into poverty every year and that level, there is strong scope for more technical almost 75% of the losses are attributable to and financial backstopping at regional level to extreme weather events. The presenters went spur the development and harmonization of on to say that the Bank works with countries to programs in critical areas that would benefit help manage and mitigate the impact of from higher levels of cooperation and disaster. They said contingent lines of credit can integration such as EW and Response Systems, help governments access rapid financing after seed markets, and cross-border trade. The an event, and that both International second day was therefore designed to explore Development Association and (IDA) and collective pathways to adaptation and stronger International Bank for Reconstruction and resilience. This day examined the role of Development (IBRD) countries are eligible for regionalism and best-practice as well as Post-Disaster Investment Project Financing (IFP) 14 | P a g e collective pathways to improved climate risk investments in climate infrastructure as public management and climate change adaptation. goods. He introduced his panelists as follows: The day began with a re-cap of the previous Ademola Braimoh, Senior Natural Resources day, presented by Joel Okwir, Agriculture Management Specialist, World Bank presented Economist for COMESA. In his presentation, he his perspectives on the recent study on Scaling- summarized the content of the opening session up Climate Smart Agriculture through the Africa including the three speeches delivered by Dr. Climate Business Plan. Dr. Braimoh said that the Simeon Ehui, Dr. Dev Haman and her Honor the World Bank Group has contributed to meeting Vice President of Zambia. Mrs. Inonge Wina, the funding gap by investing heavily in the respectively. He then presented a summary of Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP) launched sessions 1 to 4 concerning Day 1 of the Forum during the COP21 in Paris, in 2015. The ACBP and the presentation on World Bank Group requests a funding equivalent to $19 billion by Products for IBRD and IDA Countries. This 2020 to help Africa to adapt to climate change included some highlights on the question and and build resilience to climate shocks. The answer sessions that followed each session. Climate Smart Agriculture component in the ACBP requires an amount of $3 billion to support the vision of accelerated agriculture transformation of the Malabo declaration. The World Bank Group has developed a pipeline of innovative and transformational projects to tackle climate change and establish a platform to mobilize funding in Africa. In total 83 CSA projects were approved by the Bank since 2016 to April 2018 totaling a value of $3.8 billion for 30 countries covering 5 million farmers on 3 million hectares. $1.5 billion is dedicated to Participants from Madagascar and Comoros during the Forum agricultural adaptation and mitigation. Future opportunities will include: CSA country profiles, Proceedings CSA investment plans, Strengthening of Session 1 Measurement Reporting and Verification Session 1 titled, ‘Catalyzing Climate Change Systems (MRVs) for Nationally Determined Adaptation: Challenges and Innovations was Contributions (NDCs), building capacity to moderated by Dr. Debisi Araba, Regional access climate finance, promoting knowledge Director for Africa at CIAT. In reiterating his sharing, and capacity enhancement of CSA remarks during the Forum’s Keynote Address, policies and technologies and practices. Dr. Araba said countries and their leaders need Furthermore, the World bank will soon launch a to think about investing in evidence-based program for CSA strengthening in higher planning to improve quality of decision-making education systems. We also need to address for agriculture development and food systems climate finance challenges for resilience resilience. Dr Araba said that investment in building. This calls for the creation of an research and real-time data for in depth enabling environment that can catalyze analytics is crucial for addressing climate investments. We need innovative financing and vulnerability and that there is a need to view a deliberate policy environment. In addition, we must identify key entry points for CSA. 15 | P a g e Evan Girvetz, Senior Scientist, CIAT presented agriculture sector vision, scenarios, sector on the Climate-Smart Investment Plan (CSIP) in modeling and analyses, and prioritization and Cote D’Ivoire and Mali, and perspectives on CSA evaluation. The CSIP emphasizes three pillars of Profiling. In his presentation he stated the fact conservation agriculture which include that many interventions can be climate smart minimum soil disturbance, agroforestry and somewhere, but none are likely climate-smart crop diversification. CSA’s impact on household everywhere depending on the context and income is mostly positive in the long run, priorities. He said the CSA Plan considers four providing incentives for adoption. Mr. steps that include a situational analysis, Namanyungu said, that numerous investment prioritization of interventions, program design, opportunities for CSA exist in Zambia to roll out and implementation as well as monitoring and among 50% of farmers. This requires a total evaluation. The situational analysis or CSA investment of $617 million over a period of five profiling depicts the country situation in terms years. Projects seeking to enhance market of aspects such as people, agriculture and infrastructure, timely access to diverse inputs livelihoods, economic relevance of agriculture, and adoption of the landscape management CSA financing opportunities, enabling policies approach, are among the required and institutions and others. He said CSA and interventions. climate risk profiling was completed in more Tasila Banda, National Project Coordinator, than 30 countries globally and more than 50 Zambia showcased the Integrated Forest countries sub-nationally. Building on CSA Landscape Project in Zambia. She said that this profiles enables the identification of CSA project is in the Eastern Province of Zambia and investment opportunities. Potential impacts of covers nine districts. The area is vulnerable with climate change on trade (imports and exports) a significant forest loss map. The project were assessed in countries such as Mali and development objective is to improve landscape Côte d’Ivoire. This has allowed a shift from management and increase environmental and investment ideas to designed bankable projects. economic benefits for targeted rural Twelve project concepts were developed for communities in the area as well as improving the two countries. He also said, that the CSA the recipient’s capacity to respond promptly and economic assessment for national soil and efficiently to crises. The project fertility program is also crucial through cost- development objective has its indicators and benefit analysis. financing arrangements. Dr. Banda said the Dominic Namanyungu, Principal Extension project has four components: enabling Methodologist in the Ministry of Agriculture, environment, livelihood and low carbon Zambia, spoke about the Climate-Smart investments, project management, and Investment Plan (CSIP) for Zambia. He said that contingent emergency response. In scaling up the objective is to develop a Zambia Climate CSA the project has 239 extension workers in Smart Investment Plan to inform agriculture place and has reached 10,755 lead farmers, sector planning, foster dialogue and build who were trained across the camps. It is capacity to operationalize country climate expected that each extension worker will train commitments for a productive, resilient and 45 farmers, while each lead farmer will train 10 low-emissions agriculture development in the farmers to reach a total target of 118,305 short, medium and long term. The CSIP farmers. Consequently, food security and approach for Zambia combines a set of climate benefits by CSA interventions will be elements such as: development of an achieved through conservation agriculture, 16 | P a g e integrated soil fertility management and protection and focuses on investments in agroforestry. agriculture for increased productivity and diversification. Ms. Nyirenda said, ARC employs Session 2 risk modelling using the Africa Risk View which Session 2 was moderated by Barry Maher, is a data platform. Based on the modelling, Senior Financial Sector Specialist at the World contingency plans are then, designed. The plans Bank. The session was titled, Exploring focus on the most affected populations as the Innovations in Financing Climate/Disaster Risk target to protect and improve Initiatives. Mr. Maher set the scene for the session and later moderated a panel discussion. In framing the session, he said the El Niño is looming in the horizon and there is a 75% probability for this event. In this case, governments need to be prepared, based on the scientific evidence available. Preparation for the event requires financial investments. Government, home owners, farmers and the poor people have to adapt to the phenomena. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) financing is an essential and integral part of the broader Panelists deliberate during Session 2 on Day 2 of the Regional agriculture risk mitigation. In addition, core Forum principles for financing included: timeliness, livelihoods in the face of risks. $36 million has how money reaches beneficiaries, and disk risk been paid out, while 2.1 million people have layering. Furthermore, there is need to use been assisted and over one million livestock several financial instruments to address the assisted. ARC also focuses on the long-term risks. For example, Kenya has a good risk resilience needs as opposed to simply financing strategy. responding to immediate risks and shocks. This Panelists deliberated as follows: provides governments with the opportunity for long term risk planning and to allocate funds Lucy Nyirenda, Head of Program at Africa Risk accordingly. Capacity (ARC) spoke about the Role of ARC in Agriculture Risk Financing in Africa. In her Richard Kyuma, Program Coordinator, Kenyan submission Ms. Nyirenda said, the ARC is a Livestock Insurance Program (KLIP) shared a specialized agency of the African Union (AU) presentation on the KLIP and said that the designed to reduce impact of droughts and Government is not implementing the program other natural hazards, and therefore preventing individually, but with strategic partners loss of livelihoods. It provides disaster finance including the World Bank and the International linked to contingency plans and is the first Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). It is now sovereign insurance pool in Africa and the first being implemented in eight county in the world that links pay-outs to contingency governments of Kenya, which are most affected plans. ARC works with countries to define the by drought. The rationale behind the use of the countries risk and quantify the risks, after which insurance methodology was due to the financial resources can be disbursed to economic impacts of droughts, which led to the governments. ARC allows stability in social loss of $10 billion. KLIP is implemented using 17 | P a g e satellite data and imagery and uses an of the poorest countries in the world. For this innovative insurance scheme. Mr. Kyuma said, it reason, the government designed a social is not easy to sell insurance to small-scale protection program. The El Niño of 2015-16 had farmers and that is the challenge that most a negative impact on the vulnerable member states are faced with. Therefore, there communities and hence the focus on social is a need for awareness raising and capacity protection. Beneficiaries were involved in the building and to anchor insurance to policy design stage of the initiative and to hasten the instruments to ensure its sustainability. In the response, a grant was provided by the World meantime, Kenya is introducing a partial Bank to respond to the effects of the disaster. subsidy program. About challenges in Direct transfers were done to the beneficiaries. facilitating insurance, it was noted that budget A grant of $35 million was given to the deficits are common issues that governments government. Ms. Baraka said, women are are faced with, and therefore there are among the most vulnerable to the risks and that difficulties with regards to integrating insurance capacity building is a regular feature of the risk as a financing tool for risk management. management. Family planning is also done as a Governments will need to use innovative means measure to mitigate the risk to disaster. This of financing risk and ensure effective policy initiative employs a multi-stakeholder approach reform. with the involvement of ministries of agriculture, water and other line ministries. Naseer Khan, Operations Manager for Hunger Some challenges were noted, and questions Safety Net Program (HSNP) in Kenya, said the asked following this session as follows: Government of Kenya is funding 60% of the program, while 40% is donor funded. He said HSNP is a flagship program of Kenya and targets Challenges the most vulnerable people. It is a social cash 1. Budget deficits are common issues that transfer program involving a target of 100,000 governments are faced with and hence households. HSNP uses geolocation and there are difficulties in bringing in insurance mapping of households. $27 per month per as a financing tool for risk management. household is paid through an account opened 2. Governments need to use innovative means with a local bank and a biometric VISA card of financing risk and therefore, effective enabled. Mr. Khan said there is a need for policies reform is required to achieve this. expansion of the program. Meanwhile, Kenya 3. Humanitarian responses are very costly and uses a mix of financing instruments to respond therefore, governments need to put forth to drought risks, while the DRR financing measures to invest for future risk strategy for Kenya is being developed in management collaboration with World Bank, to be finalized soon. Humanitarian responses are very costly. Question: Is there room for risk financing and Governments need to put in place measures to innovation? increase investment for future risk Answer: The market in Kenya is enthusiastic management purposes. and the future may witness other innovative Charlotte Hanta Baraka, General Secretary in approaches to agriculture risk financing, the Ministry of Population and Social introduced. Protection, Madagascar, said despite the vast wealth of Madagascar, the country remains one 18 | P a g e Answer: There is a need to create awareness disproportionately, while women are vulnerable among the farmers in Malawi regarding risk to ENSO events. He further said, impacts vary financing and innovation. across sub-national regions, and that La Niña gains can offset some of El Niño’s losses. Mr. Vasileiou also shared perspectives on the role of effective policies in addressing ENSO impacts. This session featured two panelists from the ASEAN Secretariat. Their participation was designed to inform the participants on lessons learned, and experiences and good practices on Participation during the Forum matters of climate risks and resilience, from a region beyond Africa. Session 3 Natalia Derodofa, Senior Officer, Environment Session 3, titled Exploring collective pathways to Division, gave an overview of ASEAN and climate resilience and food security – the ASEAN presented the ASEAN Cooperation Framework Experience, was moderated by Ioannis on Disaster Management as well as the Vasileiou, Agriculture Specialist, World Bank. Operational Mechanism of ASEAN Coordinating Mr. Vasileiou shared perspectives of a program Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster being implemented in the ASEAN region, Management (AHA Centre) and the ASEAN through a presentation on striking a balance in Cooperation Framework on Environment, managing El Niño and La Niña in east Asian Climate Change and Transboundary Haze agriculture. He spoke about the impacts of the Pollution. ASEAN was launched in August 1967 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as with the aim and purpose of accelerating the country preparedness and resilience efforts and economic growth, social progress and cultural recommendations on priority actions. The development of the region through joint objectives of the program are, to: increase endeavours and promoting regional peace and awareness among policymakers about ENSO stability through abiding respect for justice and and its impacts on agri-food systems in five the rule of law. ASEAN has ten members States: countries in East Asia (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao Myanmar, the Philippines, and Vietnam), and PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, provide country-specific options to enhance Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Ms. their preparedness and resiliency for future Derodofa said the AADMER was signed in July events. Mr. Vasileiou shared statistics on the 2005, ratified by all ten countries in ASEAN, impact on ENSO in the East Asia Pacific (EAP) entered into force on 24 December 2009 with Region and some key messages. He said the objective of providing effective mechanisms importantly that national economies and to achieve significant reduction in disaster people are vulnerable to ENSO-related climate losses in ASEAN, and to jointly respond to shocks and that there are negative effects on disaster emergencies. It is legal framework for agricultural production. ENSO’s impacts on all ASEAN member States and serves as a agricultural sector have economy-wide common platform in responding to disasters ramifications and El Niño threatens countries’ within ASEAN. The AHA Centre is the progress in poverty reduction and food security. operational coordination body and engine of In addition, poor rural households suffer AADMER. The AADMER work program (2016- 19 | P a g e 2020) is focused on: risk assessment and cooperation on Food, Agriculture and Forestry awareness, prevention and mitigation, (FAF) in 2016-2025 are in ensuring equitable, preparedness and response, recovery, and sustainable and inclusive growth, alleviating knowledge and innovation management. About poverty and eradicating hunger, ensuring food the ASEAN Disaster Risk Financing and security, food safety and better nutrition, Insurance, she elaborated on the Southeast Asia deepening regional integration, enhancing Disaster Risk Insurance Facility (SEADRIF) which access to global markets, increasing resilience is proposed as a re-insurance-backed disaster to, and contributing to mitigation and liquidity facility, providing participating adaptation of climate change, natural disasters countries with immediate disaster response and other shocks, and achieving Sustainable financing. SEADRIF is expected to be established Forest Management (SFM). He said, to in 2019. She presented a list of 28 AHA Centre implement activities on FAF cooperation, forty- responses for the region (data as at August eight Working Groups and sub-working groups 2018) and also shared insights to the Standard (WGs) under ASEAN Ministers of Agriculture Operating Procedure for Regional Standby and Forestry (AMAF) were established with Arrangements and Coordination of Joint different tasks/ functions. In addition, he said, Disaster Relief and Emergency Response the ASEAN Integrated Food Security (AIFS) Operation (SASOP), highlighting seven key steps Framework was adopted by ASEAN Ministers in including: notification of disaster, request for Agriculture and Forestry in 2015. The priority assistance, offer of assistance, disaster situation commodities for food security in the ASEAN update, joint assessment of required assistance, region include rice, maize, soybean, sugar and mobilization of assets and capacities, and cassava. Other commodities such as livestock, demobilization of assistance and reporting. The fishery and crops for staple food, which are region has seven principles under One ASEAN, important for food security and nutrition, shall One Response. Furthermore, Ms. Derodofa said, be identified during implementation of the AIFS the ASEAN Strategic Plan on Environment is still Framework and Strategic Plan of Action on Food under development and has linkages with Security (SPA-FS). The AIFS Framework regional blueprints and global priorities. comprises five components, which are distinctive but interrelated in nature to facilitate Pham Quang Minh, Assistant Director, Food, cooperation in addressing food security in the Agriculture and Forestry Division, shared ASEAN region. The AIFS Framework’s perspectives on ASEAN Cooperation in Food, Components are supported by corresponding Agriculture and Forestry (FAF) as well as Climate nine Strategic Thrusts. On Climate Resilience Resilience-related Initiatives and related initiatives, Dr Minh presented the Partnership/Cooperation arrangements. He ASEAN Climate Resilience Network (ASEAN said, ASEAN cooperation in the agriculture CRN) which aims at promoting a common sector dated back as early as 1968, with understanding on climate change and the cooperation in food production and supply. In agriculture sector amongst ASEAN Member 1977, the scope of cooperation was broadened States. to include the greater area of agriculture and forestry since the needs have since increased. Currently, the specific areas under ASEAN cooperation are focused on food agriculture and forestry. Dr. Minh further said the following, that: the key goals of ASEAN 20 | P a g e Session 4 role of regionalism. This session was moderated Session 4 was a wrap up session on Pathways by Willem Janssen from the World Bank. It was Forward to Stronger Climate Resilience and an interactive discussion that involved all Regional Food Security moderated by Willem participants present. Four (4) questions as Janssen, Lead Agriculture Economist, World follows, were presented to participants to Bank. The session was designed to allow an reflect on during this session: open discussion involving all participants. The • What have you taken away from the main panelists selected to open and close the discussions of this Forum? session were drawn from Uganda (Dr. Charles Mukama), Zimbabwe (Dorcas Tawonashe), • What are the some of the key challenges Madagascar (Charlotte Hanta Baraka), COMESA and gaps? (Dr. Mclay Kanyangarara) and Djibouti (Nouradin Elmi Robleh). • What are the good practices that should be upscaled in your countries? The session commenced with a presentation delivered by Nouradin Elmi Robleh from the • What do you think is the role of regionalism Ministry of Agriculture Environment Fisheries and what role could COMESA play [going and Livestock of Djibouti. His presentation was forward]? tilted, Resilience Program for Drought and The deliberations during this session are Development of Livelihoods in the Horn of Africa summarized as follows: (DRSLP I). Mr. Robleh said the objective of the initiative is to assist the country develop its With regard to the COMESA Secretariat’s mitigation and adaptation capacities to reduce support to the small island States of Comoros, its exposure to the adverse effects of climate Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles to change, particularly of nomadic populations and develop policies and strategies on climate risks agro-pastoralists. and resilience: It was noted that small Islands States are at greater risk of suffering the impact of climate risks and therefore, COMESA is requested to pay greater attention to their plight through building their capacity to manage and mitigate risk and supporting their efforts in ensuring that effective evidence-based policies are in place. Ensuring an integrated approach as well as Construction of an underground water reservoir in Silalmia, calls for regional cooperation and joint Djibouti planning between stakeholders and institutions in the context of climate Change and risks: The Forum called on COMESA Key Takeaways and Next Steps member States to work together to deal with common issues. Constellations of a few The following issues/key messages were countries at a time, within the region, should be highlighted during the session as takeaways supported in the identification of similar climate and/or as recommendations and next steps for risks and in sharing information of matters of addressing climate risks and food security management and mitigation of climate effects. resilience, including the need to enhance the 21 | P a g e COMESA is called upon as the REC to spearhead need to: strengthen Early Warning Systems this proposed initiative. Climate risks are, after (EWS), address Price Volatility and Trade all, regional in nature and therefore, they Restrictions, and strengthen Warehouse require regional preparedness and responses. Receipts. Based on the outcomes of the above COMESA should continue engaging with ASEAN World Bank Study, PARM/IFAD is currently in order to draw from the experiences and good undertaking two specific studies with a view to practices from the south east Asian region. developing tools to support/strengthen management of agriculture risk. The two areas Interventions aimed at addressing climate are: Early Warning Systems and Warehouse vulnerability require significant amounts of Receipts Systems in Zambia. resources and capacity: Member States were encouraged to be innovative in their Supporting small scale farmers to access approaches to risk financing. Furthermore, climate information and to be actively involved countries could reach out to existing World in implementation of climate related Bank’s financial instruments (such as the Post- interventions: The Forum discussed the issue of Disaster Investment Project Financing (IFP) and strengthening meteorological services at Contingency Emergency Component as well as country level. This includes among others, the Catastrophe (CAT) Bonds and CAT strengthening the capacity of National Agro- Drawdown Options (DDOs). It was also Meteorological (AgroMet) services through: recommended that various insurance (risk • Improved Access to climate data and transfer) products are significant in supporting enhancement of climate information and encouraging the area of financing risk – systems. This eventually translates into among them, weather index insurance and yield increased investment in technologies that index insurance. The Forum noted that there is are essential to address climate risks and a need to develop blended financing tools and achieve food security and resilience etc.; insurance products to fight climate change and • Capacity building and training of key staff in achieve resilience. In addition, countries such as the ministries responsible for agriculture, Malawi have been members of the ARC since particularly their AgroMet Departments; 2012. ARC uses Africa Risk View to monitor and drought situation during a particular rainfall • Developing capacities of farmers on usage season and trigger pay-outs in times of major of climate modelling, information drought events. As a case in point is noted technologies and decision making based on when Malawi bought a parametric drought accurate data. insurance policy from ARC Ltd for the 2015/16 On that fact that quality and real time data is agricultural season. important to support the resilience agenda in Some examples were provided, as case studies, the member States: The Forum noted that on the need to improve Early Warning there is an urgent need to leverage the large information systems by countries to strengthen data and geospatial capability tools, such as the preparedness and early action. The World World Bank’s Ag Observatory (Ag Observatory), Bank, for instance, has recently finalized an in decisions making, policy reform, including Agriculture Risk Assessment/Profiling Report for among others, targeting climate-smart Zambia (2018) in which a recommendation has interventions in existing and pipeline projects. been made for some key areas to be The Forum noted that there is a need to strengthened/addressed. These include the enhance capacities in terms of resources and 22 | P a g e policies, including knowledge management seeking solutions that protect the livelihoods of systems, that are required to deal with climate populations in the region. He emphasized the risks. need for generation and use of real time data, stating a willingness for COMESA to work with Enhancing awareness raising among youths on the Bank in supporting countries to establish climate change: COMESA presented their work the Ag. Observatory. He said CSA is key to being undertaken in Zimbabwe, where school addressing food security resilience and to children are being taught, exposed and trained protecting livelihoods in the region and looked on sustainable development with a view to forward to continued collaboration with the generating a cadre of youth that are better Bank on this matter, going forward. equipped to participate in the cause for management and mitigation of climate risks and A Vote of Thanks was delivered by Mr. strengthening of food security resilience. The Mohammed Ali Ismail, Permanent Secretary in Forum noted the significance of this initiative to the Ministry of Agriculture for Somalia, who supporting the agenda on addressing climate thanked COMESA and World Bank, on behalf of vulnerability and securing the future for the other member States present, for organizing young by ensuring their involvement early in the regional forum which allowed the sharing of the cause. very important information. He said Somalia is excited to be back in COMESA and looks The Forum also noted the need to deepen forward to working very closely with the involvement of Civil Society Organizations Secretariat. (CSOs) in climate change planning and responses and to establish regional platforms Closing Remarks were delivered by Mr. Dominic for sharing lessons and good practices on Namanyungu on behalf of the host country, climate risks management and resilience. Zambia. In closing the Forum, Mr. Namanyungu said, the Government of the Republic of Zambia takes issues of climate risks and resilience very Closing Session seriously. He noted that the Vice President, who oversees Disaster Risk Management and The closing session was moderated by Willem Mitigation in the country, requested COMESA Janssen and Nalishebo Meebelo. and the WB to share with her office the Stephen D’Alessandro spoke on behalf of the proceedings of the forum and the key note Bank and thanked participants for their rich address. He thanked all participants for their contributions to the sessions and discussions. contributions to a successful Forum and the He also thanked staff of the COMESA and World World Bank and COMESA for organizing the Bank teams for their unrelenting efforts during event. the organization and facilitation of the Forum. DAY THREE – October 27, 2018: Field Visit Mclay Kanyangarara spoke on behalf on to the Southern Africa Development COMESA. He thanked the World Bank for Community (SADC) Plant Genetic partnering with COMESA to organize the Forum. Resources Centre (SPGRC) He stressed the importance of moving beyond the rhetoric on approaches to dealing with A Field Visit to the Southern Africa climate change effects, preparedness and Development Community (SADC) Plant Genetic responses, to becoming more practical in Resources Centre (SPGRC) was organized by 23 | P a g e COMESA Secretariat in the margins of the and information system to all member States. Regional Forum. The event took place on National Centers hold more than 44,000 Saturday 27th October 2018 from 09h05 to accessions, with genetic material collected from 11h15, i.e. two hours and 10 minutes, local farms and from the wild. approximately. The following countries The Centre initially operated as a project and participated in the visit: Ethiopia, Kenya, initiated the creation of national gene banks. A Malawi, Somalia, Uganda and Zimbabwe1, strategy was developed, and donor funds accompanied by participants from COMESA mobilized for operations. The Centre began as a Secretariat. Logistics were organized to enable 20-year project, initially funded and technically participants to leave the Taj Pamodzi Hotel at supported by the Nordic countries (Denmark, 08h45. Staff at SPGRC was ready to welcome Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden) through participants at 09h05 and to facilitate a tour, the Swedish International Development while providing information on the origins, Cooperation Agency (SIDA). The SPGRC acts as objectives and operations of the Centre. the central depository for seeds in the member The Centre was established in 1989 in States. recognition of the importance of conserving plant genetic resources, and as a result of erosion of genetic resources in Southern Africa (See:https://www.sadc.int/sadcsecretariat/servi cescentres/spgrc/). The SPGRC is a non-profit, self-governing regional organization, located on the outskirts of Lusaka (Chongwe, Lusaka Rural District), Zambia. The Centre works in collaboration with each of the 16-member States of SADC, to conserve and preserve the genetic diversity and viability of Southern Africa’s plant stocks. The Centre also performs important roles in research, documentation, Seeds at the SPGRC, Lusaka Rural District, Zambia education and training, together with The Centre is not without challenges. These counterparts at national level. The SPGRC has 3 include, among others, energy issues sections: The Ex Situ, In Situ and Documentation (particularly electricity) – a standby generator section. The Centre collects, documents and set is available to address power cuts at the stores seed samples on a long-term basis. This Centre, which is able to accommodate 90 to process is called accession – a unique entry into 100 fridges. Furthermore, collection of seed a gene bank collection, representing a distinct germplasm can be complicated due to issues genotype or plant variety as collected at a such as limited road access and civil unrest. specific location and time. Information about Materials collected require careful handling to the collection sample is important for searching avoid loss, misplacement, or loos of viability. and retrieval from the gene bank. The SPGRC seeks to improve accession information and to The Centre collaborates with other make this available through a documentation international genetic resources centers. In this 1Other member States and participants did not participate in the Field Visit due to the fact that their [flight] departure times were scheduled at the same time as the visit to the SPGRC. 24 | P a g e regard, some good work has been undertaken several countries to support efforts towards to address the above challenges through the ensuring food security resilience for the small- adoption of the International Treaty on Plant scale farmers. This intervention by the SPGRC Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture by resulted in reduction in crop failure due to the SADC (See: http://www.fao.org/plant- use of floods and drought resistant seed treaty/en/). The Treaty is designed to facilitate varieties. global access to conserved plant genetic To address issues of agriculture risk financing, resources. The objectives of the Treaty are, the SPGRC communicated to SADC Secretariat generally, to ensure the “…conservation and requesting support to be provided to countries sustainable use of all plant genetic resources for with a view to linking national risk management food and agriculture and the fair and equitable agencies with the national gene banks. SADC sharing of the benefits arising out of their secretariat has since approved that request and use…”2 is ready to move to the next stage. Zambia was selected to host the SPGRC since it Table 1: Number of households supported with housed a model gene bank as a conservation agriculture interventions in some SADC countries as at effort. The gene bank stores plant genes for end of October 2016 food and agriculture purposes. Participants also noted during the Field Visit that Ethiopia is a leading country in genetic resources conservation. Somalian participants also shared the fact that their country has had civil wars for 30 years and therefore, they lost everything in terms of scientific research in agriculture. Agriculture however remains a key sector in Somalia and the country would have an interest in accessing genetic resources. Staff at the SPGRC informed Somalian participants that their country can access plant genes through the Global Crop Diversity Trust. Climate change affects the work of the SPGRC due to floods and droughts, which pose a high risk of total crop failure. This was especially evident during the El-Niño of 2015-2016, which recorded the worst droughts and floods in 35 years in the SADC region. The El Niño caused a humanitarian crisis affecting 39 million people, i.e. 13% of the SADC population. To mitigate the Participants during the Field Visit to the SPGRC on the margins of the Regional Form risks posed by the El-Niño, the national gene banks distributed local seeds to local farmers in 2 http://www.fao.org/plant-treaty/en/ 25 | P a g e Annexes 26 | P a g e Annex 1: Concept Note for a Regional Summit on Climate Adaptation and Food Systems Resilience in East and Southern Africa A. Summary This note outlines a proposal for organizing a regional policy dialogue/summit during Fall FY19. The objective of the proposed 2-day event is to: 1) provide a platform for COMESA members states to share their experiences and lessons learned in preparing for and responding to the 2015-116 El Niño event; and 2) highlight evidenced-driven “no regrets” policies and investment strategies for strengthening the climate resilience of agricultural systems and regional food security. The gathering will also provide an opportunity for COMESA and its member states to highlight their development priorities. Anticipated outcomes include stronger awareness among regional policy makers of good practice, from within the region as elsewhere, and stronger appreciation for the supportive role that the World Bank and other partners can play in helping the region to confront and better manage growing climate risks and uncertainty. B. Context/Background During 2015-16, record-high temperatures, droughts and floods fueled by one of the strongest El Niño events in recent decades crippled agricultural production across East and Southern Africa. By early 2016, millions of households faced food insecurity as crops failed, incomes dropped, and food stocks tightened. Several countries in the region were hit particularly hard. By late 2015, estimates placed more than 15 million people in central and eastern Ethiopia alone at food security risk following the worst drought there in 50 years. Widespread flooding in Kenya ravaged cropland and displaced thousands while a severe drought in South Africa—which normally accounts for roughly half of the region’s yellow maize output—forced authorities to import maize from abroad for the first time in nearly a decade. In neighboring Malawi and Mozambique retail maize prices spiked, nearly doubling in a few short months. Increasing levels of concern in early 2016 over the mounting crisis prompted quick action by the World Bank and other development partners to assist client countries in responding to the crisis and to document and learn from the experience. This has generated a wealth of new understanding and insights with strong scope to inform governments’ forward policy planning and investments and the World Bank’s strategic engagement in the region. C. Activity Objectives The overall objective of the proposed activity is to provide an event platform for high-level policy makers in the region, technical experts, and development partners to exchange knowledge and insights into how to reverse the region’s growing climate vulnerability. It will achieve this objective by facilitating the sharing of experiences and lessons learned among countries from across East and Southern Africa in preparing for and responding to the impacts of the 2015-16 El Niño event. Informed and guided in part by the World Bank’s portfolio work, event proceedings will highlight evidence-based, “no regrets” policies for mitigating impacts and strengthening the climate resilience of agri-food systems and regional food security. A central theme will be exploring the role of regionalism and collective, supra-national 27 | P a g e pathways towards resilience. Among intermediate outcomes expected from this activity would be a stronger awareness among regional policy makers of good practice policy options and approaches and as a stronger appreciation for the supportive role that the World Bank can play in helping the region confront growing climate risks. D. Methodology In the context of increasing global competition, rapid population growth, and climate uncertainty that defies borders, no country can afford to go it alone. Stronger regional collaboration in confronting common challenges is needed more than ever. To get there, regional policy makers need better access to policy evidence to assess existing approaches and the full range of risk mitigation, transfer, and coping options and associated trade-offs. Progress on developing climate risk preparedness and response plans is variable across the region. While some countries can mobilize funding at national level, there is strong scope for more technical backstopping from the regional level in cases where countries have not progressed significantly in developing and harmonizing programs. While regionalism shows promise in strengthening disaster preparedness and response capacity of member states and food systems, every region has distinct institutional competencies and policy coherence around longer-term development planning, resilience and food security objectives. Each region would benefit from sharing its knowledge and experiences. Regional can also help strengthen national plans while highlighting areas of shared challenges and interests. This cross-GP initiative will build on World Bank’s competitive strengths in generating and disseminating knowledge and building consensus among stakeholders. Spearheaded by the Agr GP, the activity will benefit from the strong support and collaboration of GP’s GTC, GSU and GSP. As envisioned, the activity would be organized as a 2-day event in Lusaka, Zambia and hosted by the COMESA Secretariat. It will bring together decision makers from across the COMESA region and representatives from other regional groupings (EAC, IGAD, SADC) to facilitate knowledge sharing and exchange in developing shared policies, programming and systems. The activity will sponsor two representatives from each of the 19 COMESA member states and two representatives each from EAC, IGAD and SADC to participate. Building on a South-South Exchange Visit (P161300) organized by the World Bank to South East Asia in May 2017, representatives from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will also be invited to share their experiences.3 Organized around key themes, panel discussions, TED-style talks and presentations by government teams, the event proceedings will provide an opportunity for government teams, the World Bank, other leading development partners, and representatives from the private sector to share insights and the 3Several countries in Southeast Asia have developed collaborative frameworks under the auspices of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to boost the capacity of member states to prepare for and respond to natural disasters and strengthen food systems resilience. These include the 1976 Declaration on Mutual Assistance on Natural Disasters, the ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM), the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER)3, and the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management (AHA Centre), a centralized regional hub for disaster preparedness and response. 28 | P a g e latest evidence of best practice from within the region, as elsewhere. AfDB, the USAID SA Mission and Center for Resilience, IAPRI, IFPRI, CCARDESA, and GFDRR are among likely partners. Possible/expected outcomes of the proposed activity include: • Improved understanding of the challenges and opportunities related to strengthening regional collaboration, mainstreaming DRM into regional development strategies, and harmonizing climate adaptation policies and regulations among member states; • Stronger appreciation for the role of regional trade and enabling policy in stimulating needed investments and the growth of more resilient agri-food systems; • Better awareness of challenges and opportunities for investing in the development of sustainable and effective social safety net program, based on case studies from across the region; • Improved awareness of pathways toward strengthening regional cooperation and capacity on DRM through a diverse range of actors including the private sector, the diaspora, civil society organizations and scientific communities; • Enhanced knowledge of mechanisms and strategies for the shared mobilization of resources for disaster response and agricultural research and innovations development; • Stronger awareness of effective approaches for mainstreaming disaster response and climate change into regional development strategies and harmonizing related policies and regulations at state level; • Exploring mechanisms for improving ICT deployment and use of Earth Observation (EO) technology for enhanced environmental monitoring to support policy decision making in Africa and SE Asia; • Identifying pathways for strengthening data sourcing, analysis and sharing capacities to enhance access to information by decision makers for better early waring/response, especially during crises. 29 | P a g e Annex 2: Program - Regional Forum on Climate Risks and Food Security Resilience October 25-26, 2018, Taj Pamodzi Hotel, Lusaka, Zambia DAY ONE – Thursday, October 25 Time Description/Notes 07h30 – 08h30 Breakfast 08h30 – 09h00 Opening Session Remarks World Bank – Simeon Ehui, Director, Agriculture Global Practice, World Bank Remarks by COMESA Secretariat – Chileshe Kapwepwe, Secretary General, COMESA Opening Statement Zambia – Guest of Honor, Inonge Wina, Vice President, Zambia 09h00 – 09h30 Keynote Address: Debisi Araba, Regional Director, Africa, The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) 09h30 – 10h45 Session 1: Sharing Experiences and Lessons Learned from 2015-16 El Niño Moderator: Stephen D’Alessandro, Senior Agriculture Economist, World Bank Strengthening El Niño Response in Zimbabwe Speaker: Kudzai Ndidzano, Acting Deputy Director at Ministry of Environment Water and Climate Rwanda El Niño and CC Resilient Livestock Speaker: Mupenzi Mutimura, Senior Research Fellow in Feed resources and Animal nutrition at Rwanda Agriculture and Animal Resources Board (RAB) Strengthening El Niño Response in Malawi Speaker: Doshanie Kadokera, Economist (Food Security), Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Water Development Followed by Q&A 10h45 – 11h15 Coffee break 11h15 – 12h30 Session 2: Sharing Experiences and Lessons Learned from 2015-16 El Niño Moderator: Stephen D’Alessandro, Senior Agriculture Economist, World Bank El Niño Impacts and Trade Policy and Implications on Household Food Access and Welfare – IAPRI/IFPRI/World Bank study Speaker: Antony Chapoto, Research Director, IAPRI 30 | P a g e Somalia Drought Impact Needs Assessment and Recovery and Response Framework Speaker: Osman Hassan Abdi, Technical Advisor, Ministry of Planning, Somalia Zambia Agriculture Risk Assessment Speaker: Ademola Braimoh, Senior Natural Resources Management Specialist, World Bank Followed by Q&A 12h30 – 14h00 Lunch 14h00 – 15h30 Session 3: Innovative Approaches to Mitigating Production Risks at Farm Level Moderator: Nalishebo Meebelo, World Bank Panelists: • Platform for Agriculture Risk Management (PARM) Dick N. Siame, Country Program Officer, IFAD • Pluralistic Seeds Systems Augustine Langyintuo, Senior Private Sector Specialist, IFC • Addressing Climate Smart Agriculture: Regional Perspective – COMESA Mclay Kanyangarara, Director, Climate Change Unit, COMESA • COMESA Seed Harmonization Program John Mukuka, Seed Expert, ACTESA/COMESA • Zambia Strengthening Climate Resilience (PPCR Phase II) Project Chitembo K. Chunga, National Coordinator, Pilot Program for Climate Resilience, Zambia Panel Discussion followed by Q&A 15h30 – 16h00 Coffee 16h00 – 17h30 Session 4: Presentation on the World Bank’s Ag Observatory Speakers: Caroline Franca, GIS Specialist; Erick Fernandes, Lead Agriculture Specialist, World Bank Moderator: Erick Fernandes, World Bank Discussants: • Sithembile Mwamakamba, Head, Climate Change Portfolio, FANRPAN • Chitalu Zimba, Principal Statistician, Early Warning Systems and Food Security • Pham Quang Minh, Assistant Director, Food, Agriculture and Forestry Division, ASEAN 17h30 – 18h30 World Bank Group Products for IBRD and IDA Countries Speaker: Antonio S. Davila-Bonazzi, Lead Financial Officer, World Bank 31 | P a g e Followed by Q&A 18h30 – 21h00 Reception and Dinner DAY TWO – Friday, October 26 Time Description/Notes 07h30 – 08h30 Breakfast 08h30 – 09h00 Opening remarks by co-chairs – WB/COMESA (Summary of previous day’s deliberations) 09h00– 10h45 Session 1: Catalyzing Climate Change Adaptation: Challenges and Innovations Moderator: Debisi Araba, Regional Director, Africa, The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) Panelists: • Integrated Forest Landscape Project, Zambia Dr. Tasila Banda, National Project Coordinator, Zambia • Scaling up Climate Smart Agriculture through the Africa Climate Business Plan Ademola Braimoh, Senior Natural Resources Management Specialist, World Bank • Climate-Smart Investment Plan (CSIP) and CSA Profiles Evan Girvetz, Senior Scientist, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) • Climate-Smart Investment Plan (CSIP), Zambia Dominic Namanyungu, Principal Extension Methodologist, Ministry of Agriculture, Zambia Panel Discussion followed by Q&A 10h45 – 11h15 Break 11h15 – 12h45 Session 2: Exploring Innovations in Financing Climate/Disaster Risk Initiatives Moderator: Barry Maher, Senior Financial Sector Specialist, World Bank Panelists: • Richard Kyuma, Program Coordinator, Kenyan Livestock Insurance Program (KLIP) • Lucy Nyirenda, Head of Program, ARC • Naseer Khan, Operations Manager, Hunger Safety Net Program (HSNP), Kenya • Charlotte Hanta Baraka, General Secretary, Ministry of Population and Social Protection, Madagascar Panel Discussion followed by Q&A 32 | P a g e 12h45 – 14h00 Lunch 14h00 – 15h30 Session 3: Exploring collective pathways to climate resilience and food security – the ASEAN Experience Moderator: Ioannis Vasileiou, Agriculture Specialist, World Bank ASEAN’s AADMER framework for disaster preparedness and response, and the Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance Speaker: Natalia Derodofa, Senior Officer, Environment Division, ASEAN ASEAN Integrated Food Security Framework, Strategic Plan of Action on Food Security, 2016-2020 and ASEAN’s food security and climate resilience-related initiatives Speaker: Pham Quang Minh, Assistant Director, Food, Agriculture and Forestry Division, ASEAN Presentations followed by Panel Q&A 15h30 – 16h00 Break 16h00 – 17h00 Session 4: Wrap up Session: Pathways Forward to Stronger Climate Resilience and Regional Food Security Host: Nalishebo Meebelo, World Bank Panelists: • COMESA Countries 17h00 – 17h15 Wrap up and Closing session DAY THREE – Saturday, October 27 7h00 – 7h30 Breakfast 7h30 – 12h00 ½ day to visit the SADC Plant Genetic Resources Centre (SPGRC) 33 | P a g e Annex 3: List of Participants - Regional Forum on Climate Risks and Food Security Resilience - October 25-26, 2018, Taj Pamodzi Hotel Lusaka, Zambia Name Country/Organization Designation 1. Joel. H Okwir COMESA Secretariat Agriculture Economist 2. Alex Mwanakasale World Bank Senior Agriculture Specialist 3. Simeon Ehui World Bank Director, Agriculture Global Practice 4. Willem Janssen World Bank Lead Agriculture Economist 5. Stephen D’ Alessandro World Bank Senior Agriculture Economist 6. Ioannes Vasileiou World Bank Agriculture Specialist 7. Barry Maher World Bank Senior Financial Sector Specialist 8. Shunalini Sarkar World Bank Knowledge Management Expert 9. Erick Fernandes World Bank Lead Agriculture Specialist 10. Ademola Braimoh World Bank Senior Natural Resources Management Specialist 11. Nalishebo Meebelo World Bank Senior Consultant 12. Mustefa Abu Kuffa Kenya Livestock Senior MRV Insurance Programme 13. Richard Kyuma Kenya Programme Coordinator 14. Willem Janssen World Bank 15. Jhorus M. Mushota Interpreter 16. Pham Quang Minh Indonesia (ASEAN) Assistant Director, Food, Agriculture and Forestry Division, 17. Innocent Makwiramiti COMESA Senior Private Sector Development Officer 18. Razafindratovo Falison Madagascar Director 19. Tsiory Andrianantoandro Madagascar Environmentalist 20. Timothy J. Ogwang Kenya Agriculture Officer 21. Dorcas Tawonashe Zimbabwe Agriculture Economist 22. Belay Getachew COMESA Biotechnology Specialist 23. Kudzai Ndidzano Zimbabwe Climate Change Compliance Officer 24. Doshanie Kadokera Malawi Economist (MoAIWD) 34 | P a g e 25. Lucy Nyirenda Africa Risk Capacity Head of Programmes 26. Mohammed Ali Ismail Somalia Permanent Secretary 27. Suthembile Mwamakamba FANRPAN Programme Manager 28. Tshilidzi Madzivhandila FANRPAN Director Policy and Research 29. Osma Hassan Abdi Somalia Technical Advisor, Planning 30. Naseer Uddin Khan Kenya Operations Manager HSNP 31. Augustine Langyintuo Kenya Senior Private Sector Specialist. IFC 32. Joseph Mpunga COMESA Secretariat Senior Investment Promotion Officer 33. Charles Mukama Uganda Focal Point Agriculture Risk Management 34. Yvonne Mulenga Zambia M&E Specialist PPCR 35. Grace Obuya Kenya IFAD Consultant 36. Ngao Mubanga Zambia IFAD Consultant 37. Tasila Banda Zambia ZIFLP National Coordinator 38. Lwembe Mwale COMESA Secretariat Project Officer CC 39. Mclay Kanyangarara COMESA Secretariat CC Advisor 40. Debisi Araba Kenya CIAT Director 41. Abderemane Hachime Comoros Expert Sustainable Development 42. Theophile Dusengimana Rwanda Environment and CC Policy Specialist 43. Meylad Adam Sudan COMESA Desk/Ministry of Agriculture 44. Zimba Chitalu Zambia Principal Statistician, Ministry of Agriculture 45. George Uzice Seychelles Climate Change Negotiator (MEELL) 46. Tryness Nkhoma Malawi Principal Environmental Officer 47. Evan Girvetz Kenya CIAT Senior Scientist 48. Anthony Chapoto Zambia Research Director, IAPRI 49. Ali Salim Abdouroihmane Comoros Focal Point Products 50. Mupenzi Mutimura Rwanda Scientist 51. Natalia Derodofa Indonesia (ASEAN) Senior Officer, Environment Division, ASEAN Secretariat 35 | P a g e 52. Nouradin Elmi Robleh Djibouti Assistant to the Secretary General (Ministry of Agriculture Environment Fisheries and Livestock) 53. Caroline S. S. Franca Brazil Consultant (Data and GIS Specialist) 54. Dominic M. Hamanyungu Zambia Principal Extension Methodologist 55. Hanta Baraka Charlotte Madagascar Secretary General, Ministry of Population and Social Protection 56. Bennie Mundando Daily Nation, Zambia Senior Reporter 57. Tiyanzile Phiri Daily Nation, Zambia Agriculture Economist 58. Royd Sibajene ZAWLS Journalist 59. Abram Banda ZNBC Cameraman 60. Patricia Banda ZNBC Reporter 61. Chileshe Mwango QTV Reporter 62. Rebecca Vumisah Radio Journalist 63. Monica Mayuni Zambia Daily Mail Senior Reporter 64. Collins Phiri Zambia Daily Mail Photojournalist 65. Sichula Ishmael Mike Phoenix FM Senior Reporter 66. Chiluba Kaite COMESA Secretariat Photographer 67. Phil Kambafwile COMESA Secretariat Photographer 68. Daniel Banda COMESA Secretariat Corporate Communications 69. James Kunda Times of Zambia Reporter 70. Wesley Hanyongola City TV Reporter 71. Golden Yalenegi 5 FM Radio Reporter 72. Michelo Hachizibe Christian Voice Journalist 73. Cheswa Kapasa Diamond TV Cameraman 74. Patrick Makenzi Diamond TV Journalist 75. Namwinga Mwinga MUVI TV - 76. Tetiwe Mweemba Kwacha Newspaper - 77. Wezi Mazunda Sky FM - 78. Logic Kukwanda Hot FM - 36 | P a g e 79. Malangi Nzombola CBC TV - 80. Dem Mwelwa FM - 37 | P a g e Annex 3a: Biography of Speakers Mohamed Ali Ismail has worked in the Ministry Theophile Dusengimana is an of Agriculture and Irrigation for Environment and Climate Change the Federal Government of Policy Specialist at the Ministry of Somalia (FGS) since 1981. He is Environment of Rwanda. In this the Focal point for CAADP in capacity, he coordinates Somalia as well as Permanent Secretary of the international partnerships and Ministry. He has a bachelor’s degree in agreements on climate change, as well as the agriculture. preparation and implementation of strategy Richard Kyuma is an expert in and regulatory frameworks and instruments rangeland and pastoral towards mitigation and adaptation of the livestock production systems, country on climate change. drought management, GIS and Doshanie Kadokera is an remote sensing. He is currently Economist (food security) in the the Program Coordinator of Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation the Kenya Livestock Insurance Program jointly and Water Development being implemented by the Government of (MoAIWD) of the Republic of Kenya, World Bank and ILRI, covering Turkana, Malawi. He has worked with the Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Isiolo, Ministry for 8 years. He coordinates National Garissa, Samburu, Baringo and West Pokot, Early Warning and Food Security activities and Kajiado, Narok, Laikipia and Lamu Counties. guides the Ministry and other cooperating Mukama Charles is a Senior partners on food security status (food Veterinary Inspector as well as surpluses/shortages) for timely planning by desk officer for government. Mr. Kadokera coordinates all COMESA/WTO/OIC regional Safety Net Programs, monitoring of the national economic communities and the and household food security levels throughout Project Manager of the the season, and plays a leading role in the COMESA Seed Trade harmonization Project at production of the monthly/ quarterly Malawi the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Food Security Bulletin and the Food Security Fisheries (MAAIF). Dr Mukama is the Ministry Balance Sheet. He is currently the African Risk ARM focal point and has coordinated the ARM Capacity (ARC) Government Coordinator for assessment studies that profiled the most Malawi, as well as the focal person for all important agriculture risks and risk disaster related issues for the Ministry. He holds management tools in Uganda and coordinated a Bachelor of Science in Agricultural Economics, the ARM capacity building seminars in the as well as a Master of Science in Agricultural country. He was part of the technical team that Economics specializing in Agricultural Policy developed the National Agricultural Insurance Analysis. initiative being implemented in Uganda by the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development together with Uganda Insurance Association (UIA). 38 | P a g e Dick N. Siame is the Country nutrition across the continent. He is also a Program Officer for the member of the Malabo Montpellier Panel, a International Fund for group of international agriculture experts who Agriculture Development guide policy choices that accelerate progress (IFAD). He has been based in towards food and nutritional security in the Zambia Office, since May 2008. He is a Africa. He was previously the Senior Technical Development Economist who has worked in the Adviser on Environmental Policy to the Minister field of development, mostly focusing on of Agriculture and Rural Development in Nigeria smallholder agricultural and rural and the team leader of the Environment and development since the early 1980s. He worked Climate Change Unit in the Ministry (2012- for the Ministry of Agriculture as an Economist 2015). He holds a BSc in Geography from the and as Program Coordinator and Manager for University of Ibadan, an MSc in Clean various development programs funded by GIZ, Technology from the University of Newcastle SIDA, World Bank, IFAD. He has also worked as Upon Tyne, a Doctorate degree in consultant for various development Environmental Policy from Imperial College organizations. London and a Master’s in Public Administration from the Harvard University Kennedy School of Herinandrasana Tsiory Government. Andrianantoandro is an Environmentalist in the Elmi Robleh is assistant to the Departments of Environment Permanent Secretary in the and Climate Change within the Ministry of Agriculture Water Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, Environment Fisheries and Madagascar. For the past eight years, he has Livestock in Djibouti. Nouradin ensured the integration of the environmental has worked in the Ministry for dimensions in sectoral policies and strategies of six years and is in charge of drought resilience agriculture and livestock, in programs and and food security. He holds a bachelor’s Degree projects of the Ministry and for the in Mineral Resources and a master’s Degree in continuation of sectoral activities related to the hydrology and water quality. environment with a view to contributing to the Abderemane Hachime is responsible for rational management of agro-biodiversity and communication in the Ministry in charge of sustainable development, while considering the Energy, Agriculture, Fisheries and Environment, context of climate change. Comoros. He also coordinates the 6th National Debisi Araba is the Director Report to the Convention on Biological for Africa at the International Diversity. Center for Tropical Agriculture Pham Quang Minh (CIAT). He leads CIATs work in accomplished his Doctor Africa, in collaboration with Thesis in the National hundreds of partners, University of Hanoi, Viet Nam to make agriculture and food in 2012. His research focused systems more competitive, on WTO’s agricultural policies, profitable, and resilient through smarter, more including the Agreement on sustainable natural resource management, as Agriculture (AoA), and the well as improving human health and Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and 39 | P a g e Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement). In development, implementation and monitoring 2000-2013, Dr Minh worked in the Ministry of of programs, projects and initiatives related to Agriculture and Rural Development of Viet Nam ASEAN cooperation on environment. She holds as Senior Agricultural Official in the Department a master’s Degree in international Relations of Planning. From 2013 to date, as Assistant from Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia. Director at Food, Agriculture and Forestry (FAF) Zimba Chitalu is the Division in the ASEAN Economic Community Principal Statistician for Department of the ASEAN Secretariat, Dr. Minh Early Warning Systems and has worked with ASEAN Member States and Food security in the various international and dialogue partners to Ministry of Agriculture, promote ASEAN cooperation on food, Zambia. He has a agriculture and forestry, and to conduct related background in agronomy, measures under the ASEAN Economic statistics/Information Community (AEC) Blueprint, while also Systems and M&E. He has experience in promoting the international relationship designing agricultural experiments, surveys and between ASEAN and international/ dialogue censuses and has been involved in database partners in the FAF sector. He supported ASEAN programming (using MS Access, Dbase IV and Member States to develop and implement Foxpro), low level Programs like C++ and fourth various regional documents such as: (i) ASEAN level Programming using Turbo Prolog. AA. Mr. Integrated Food Security (AIFS) Framework and Chitalu also has a wide knowledge in data Strategic Plan of Action on Food Security in the analysis using SAS, SPSS, Genstat, Stata, R stat. ASEAN Region (SPA-FS), 2015-2020, (ii) ASEAN Regional Guidelines on Food Security and George Francis Uzice is a Nutrition Policy, ASEAN Guidelines on climate change negotiator, with Promoting Responsible Investment in Food, the role of increasing Agriculture and Forestry Sectors and (iv) ASEAN understanding of key legal and Ministers on Agriculture and Forestry (AMAF)’s technical issues and building Approach to gender mainstreaming in the Food, stronger representation of Seychelles views in Agriculture and Forestry Sectors. Recently, Dr. the UNFCCC processes and other climate Minh has worked with ASEAN Member States to change related meetings. He ensures better develop the ASEAN Multi-sectoral Framework coordination of the SIDS/AOSIS group in the for Climate Change: Agriculture and Forestry different areas to implement the towards Food and Nutrition Security and communications and outreach plan of all COP's Achievement of SDGs. The Framework will be decisions and is involved in the development of further implemented by ASEAN Member States Seychelles climate change policies. He is also in 2018-2025. currently the technology coordinator for the AOSIS at the UNFCCC meetings. Natalia Derodofa is currently Senior Officer of Barry Maher is a qualified actuary the Environment Division with experience in the non-life at the ASEAN Secretariat insurance sector, the carbon and (Association of Southeast renewable energy markets, Asian Nations), where she financial inclusion as well as provides support and disaster risk financing. From a assistance in the Lloyds of London reinsurance syndicate, to an 40 | P a g e insurance agency, to the UN, he now works for Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and the the Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). Program of the World Bank. Key activities Dr. Ehui holds a Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics undertaken in his current role include leading from Purdue University and has published policy dialogue and developing customized extensively in his field. He is an honorary fellow financial solutions with Ministries of Finance to of the African Agricultural Economist improve their financial resilience to disaster Association, and a Distinguished Agricultural shocks, leading the development of analytical Alumnus of Purdue University. tools which support Ministries of Finance in Ioannis Vasileiou serves as an their selection of financial instruments, Agricultural Specialist at the including insurance, to protect their fiscal World Bank's Agriculture position against disaster risk. Currently, he is Global Practice. He is a based in Pretoria and is the focal point for member of the World Bank’s disaster risk finance work in the Africa region, Climate Smart Agriculture focusing on developing disaster risk finance (CSA) Team, which is addressing the challenges solutions to support shock-responsive safety of agriculture and food security in the face of nets and agriculture insurance programs. He climate change. Mr. Vasileiou previously holds a bachelor’s Degree in Actuarial and worked as a Science Officer for the CGIAR Financial Studies from the University College of Research Program on Climate Change, Dublin and a Masters in Statistics from the Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), based at University of Oxford. the International Food Policy Research Institute Simeon Ehui, was appointed (IFPRI). In this role, he focused on issues related Director of the World Bank’s to global change, climate resilience and Food and Agriculture Global vulnerability, as well as enabling governance Practice in September 2017. and institutions for climate change adaptation He oversees the strategic and mitigation. Mr. Vasileiou’s past work also direction and high-quality delivery of the focused on sustainability and climate change, Agriculture Global Practice work program with a with the Cabinet of the Commissioner for focus on Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe Environment at the European Commission and and Central Asia. Since joining the World Bank at the United Nations. His work at the UN in 2003, Dr. Ehui has held several assignments. includes working with the Climate Change He was manager of the Food and Agriculture Support Team of the UN Secretary General, the Global Practice for Africa (2015-2017) and Division for Sustainable Development at DESA, South Asia (2009-2015) while based in Pakistan. the UN Global Compact, and the UN Global He also served as Lead Economist and Sector Pulse. He has also worked on programs with the Leader for the Sustainable Development non-profit sector, such as with the Millennium Network in Nigeria covering a variety of issues Promise. Mr. Vasileiou holds a Master of such as agriculture, social, environment, International Affairs from Columbia University, transport and energy. Before joining the World where he specialized in Economic and Political Bank, Dr. Ehui worked for 15 years in the Development. Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). He managed multi-country agricultural research development programs in Africa and Asia for both the International 41 | P a g e Nalishebo Meebelo is the Augustine Langyintuo is a National Expert for Zambia Senior Private Sector on matters concerning Specialist with the policy advice for International Finance strengthening Corporation (IFC) under the implementation of the Comprehensive Africa World Bank Group. He is an Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) Agricultural Trade Economist with extensive and domestication of the 2014 Malabo agricultural policy reforms, regional trade Declaration. She holds: A Bachelor of Arts facilitation and market modeling experiences. degree in Economics with Public Administration, He currently provides technical leadership in an MBA with Finance, and a PhD in Business agricultural policy reforms and agribusiness Studies, focused on knowledge management development in Africa, Eastern Europe and within the sustainable development framework. South East Asia while leading the Finance, Meebelo has worked at both African regional Competitiveness and Innovation (FCI) Global and continental levels, coordinating and Practice advisory work in Cameroon, Gabon, facilitating implementation of CAADP for more Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome, CAR, Republic of than a decade. She has supported African Union Congo and Chad. Prior to joining IFC in 2013, he (AU) member States in their efforts to promote was the Head of Policy & Partnerships of the domestic and foreign investment (FDI) linked to Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), smallholders along key agriculture commodity where he led Ministerial and Parliamentary value chains, through targeted policy reform. levels policy advocacy for agricultural Dr Meebelo was the Deputy Coordinator for transformation in selected African countries. CAADP in the COMESA region and first Before joining AGRA in 2009, Augustine Coordinator of the COMESA Business Council - Langyintuo was the Socio-Economics Team voice of the private sector in eastern and Leader at the International Maize and Wheat southern Africa. She has also contributed to the Improvement Center (CIMMYT), where he led development of several COMESA and AU agricultural development policy research in frameworks and guidelines as well as strategic East, West and Southern Africa, offered training plans and programmes in support of regional courses on agricultural market modeling for integration and agriculture development. regional economists, and co-supervised MSc Meebelo participated in the development of the and PhD students in USA and Southern Africa recent AU Continental Agribusiness Strategy Universities. Prior to that he headed the Socio- and AU Country Agribusiness Partnership Economics Unit of the Savanna Agricultural Framework (CAP-F). She is an Associate Editor Research Institute (SARI) in Ghana while for a publication titled ‘Women Writing Africa: lecturing Natural Resource Economics, Farm The Eastern Volume’ (2003) and was also Management & Accounting and Computing & nominated as Role Model under the Programming courses at the University for Modernizing African Food Systems (MAFS) Development Studies (UDS), Ghana. He reviews initiative in 2015. for several international Journals and serves as an Associate Editor of the African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. He is the immediate Past President (2013 – 2016) of the African Association of Agricultural Economists and current Chair of the Africa Section of the 42 | P a g e Applied and Agricultural Economics Association. analysis and evaluation in BSc and MSc in He holds a PhD (Agricultural Economics) from Animal science, respectively. He is also a co- Purdue University, USA, an MSc Degree supervisor of 5 MSc students in Animal Science (Agricultural Economics) from University of from University of Rwanda and 3 PhD students Reading, UK and a BSc (Upper Honors) Degree from Kenyata University- Kenya, University of in Agriculture from Kwame Nkrumah University Nairobi and from Swedish University of of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana. Agricultural Sciences. Ademola Braimoh is Senior Osman Abdi is a social Natural Resources Management scientist focused on Specialist and the Climate-Smart community development and Agriculture Coordinator for the social welfare, having World Bank’s Africa Region. His completed his first degree work focuses on the interaction from the University of Nairobi between agriculture, environment and climate and by the virtue of working – both in investment operations and analytical different fields in the last 6 years in diverse work and helping client countries identify cultural backgrounds from South Sudan, strategies for scaling up climate-smart Uganda, Kenya to Somalia. He is also very agriculture in the region. passionate about humanitarian field of work with a view to changing and impacting the Mupenzi Mutimura is a livelihoods of needy and vulnerable families. Senior Scientist in feed resources and animal Kudzai Ndidzano is the nutrition at Rwanda Principal Climate Change Agriculture and Animal Compliance Officer in the Resources Development Board (RAB) - formerly Climate Change Rwanda Agricultural Research Institute (ISAR) - Management Department of in Kigali, Rwanda, since 2005. He obtained his the Ministry Lands, basic education in Democratic Republic of Agriculture, Water, Climate and Rural Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. He holds an MSc in Resettlement. Responsible for national Agriculture-Grassland/Forage Science and PhD compliance to the UNFCCC, it’s Kyoto Protocol in Animal Science -Ruminant Nutrition, from the and the Paris Agreement and reporting through University of KwaZulu-Natal in the Republic of the National Communications and Biennial South Africa. He has experience in climate Update Reports. He is the Ministry’s change adaptation and mitigation, and mixed Coordinator for the Zimbabwe Climate Change crop-livestock farming systems. Currently, he is Technical Assistance (ZIM-CLIM) funded by the conducting research in the area of climate multi-donor Zimbabwe Reconstruction Fund smart agriculture where he is focusing on (ZIMREF) through the World Bank and a climate smart forage options to increase crop- Technical Advisory Committee member for the livestock productivity. He has published over 25 development of Zimbabwe’s National Water refereed journal articles, 5 book chapters and Masterplan. He is also a member and of the 28 articles/abstracts in proceedings. He National Civil Protection Committee. He has contributed to the capacity building of students wide experience in climate change mitigation at University of Rwanda by teaching Pasture and adaptation including climate smart Agronomy and Management, as well as feed agriculture (CSA), disaster risk 43 | P a g e reduction/management, integrated water the Ministry of Population, Social Protection resources management (IWRM) and general and Promotion of Women in the Ministry of catchment management, gained over years of Population, Social Protection and Promotion of adaptive research and development work Women from 2014 – 2016, Director of Medico- targeting rural communities. he holds a Master Social Assistances of the Ministry of Population of Science Degree in Integrated Water and Social Affairs from 2009 – 2014, Member of Resources Management (IWRM) from the the Board of Directors of the National Office for University of Zimbabwe and Bachelor of Science the fight against tobacco from 2017 to date. She Degree in Natural Resources Management and is a Member of the Board of Directors of the Agriculture majoring in Land and Water National Office of Nutrition (since 2013 until Resources Management from the Midlands today). State University also in Zimbabwe. Dorcas Tawonashe is an Timothy Jomo Ogwang is the Agricultural Economist with Head of the Industrial Crops 14 years of experience in Sub-division in the Ministry of policy development, program Agriculture, Livestock, planning, monitoring and Fisheries and Irrigation, State evaluation for agriculture and Department of Crops rural development projects. Development. Throughout his career, Mr. She is currently the Economist (Ministry desk Ogwang has been involved in the formulation, officer) for the Departments of Climate Change development and reviews of various policies, and Irrigation where she is responsible for strategies, Bills, Acts, Regulations and monitoring and evaluation of national projects. Guidelines. He holds a Bachelor of Science Under her curatorship as the Irrigation and Degree in Agriculture, from University of Mechanization Economist she participated in Nairobi. the development, planning and implementation of major national projects such as the FAO Falison Razafindratovo is Smallholder Irrigation Project (US$12 million), Director at FID (Intervention the More Food for Africa Project (US$98 Fund for Development) million) and the Irrigation Zhove Project (US$35 Taolagnaro (Fort Dauphin), million). Her involvement with these national Madagascar. He oversees the projects exposed her to programme planning, FIAVOTA Program - a social design and implementation of monitoring and safety nets program in the South of evaluation plans, baseline surveys, feasibility Madagascar. Prior to this position, Mr. studies, training needs assessment, training and Razafindratovo was Director at FID Manakara, developing project indicators and log frames. FID Antsiranana, and FID Mahajanga. She has also coordinated impact assessments, Charlotte Hanta Baraka is mid-term project evaluations where project the Secretary General of the successes and failures were documented and Ministry of Population, Social used to develop lessons learnt and good Protection and Promotion of practices. Women. She is the Supervisor of the Social Safety Nets Program. She was the Director General of Social Protection in 44 | P a g e John Mukuka, PhD, is a Africa (COMESA) headquartered in Lusaka Zambian National, who Zambia. He provides overall leadership and joined the Alliance of strategic direction to the Climate Change Unit. Commodity Trade in Eastern COMESA is a regional economic community of and Southern Africa 19 African Member States. Dr Kanyangarara (ACTESA), in June 2010, and holds a Doctorate Degree from Oxford is in charge of the COMESA Seed Development University and has previously worked with the Program/ COMESA Seed Harmonization United Nations Industrial Development Implementation Plan (COMSHIP) as well as Organization (UNIDO), prior to joining COMESA Acting CEO of ACTESA. He graduated with a 17 years ago. At COMESA Secretariat, he bachelor’s degree in Crop Science in 1996 from spearheaded the formation of the COMESA the University of Zambia, a Master of Science Climate Change Unit in 2009 which, notable degree in Tropical Nematology from University among other projects, successfully of Gent, Belgium in 2003 and graduated from implemented a Tripartite Climate Change Christian Albrechts University, Kiel in Germany initiative that brought together the three in February 2010 with a Doctor of Science in Regional Economic Communities (RECs) of the Phyto-Pathology. He also worked as a Research Eastern and Southern African region. Dr Assistant at the University of Zambia from 1996 Kanyangarara has an excellent understanding of to 1998 and later at the Zambia Agricultural climate change issues, as well as demonstrated Research Institute (ZARI) as an Agricultural knowledge of and working experience in the Research Officer from 1998 to 2005. At COMESA-SADC–ESA region with extensive COMESA, he is spearheading the COMSHIP experience and exposure at government, initiative to ensure transparency, coherence, corporate, regional and international levels. He synergistic and accountability in its is knowledgeable in climate smart agriculture, implementation. COMSHIP is crucial in renewable energy, climate change negotiations, enhancing quality, improved seed including climate change policy, knowledge management availability of climate-smart varieties to small- and climate financing. Apart from climate scale farmers. change issues, he has been very involved in the extractive/metallurgical sector that consumes Mclay Kanyangarara vast quantities of energy, while simultaneously is the Climate Change producing much of the region’s greenhouse Advisor at the gases. Common Market for Eastern and Southern 45 | P a g e Annex 4: Opening Statement by Her Honor Mrs. Inonge Wina, Vice President of the Republic of Zambia Dr. Dev Haman, Acting Secretary General of COMESA Dr. Simeon Ehui, Director for Agriculture Global Practice, World Bank Ms. Ina Rutenberg, Country Director, Zambia and Special Representative to COMESA for the World Bank Senior Government Officials and Experts from COMESA member States, here present Experts from ASEAN, IGAD, SADC, EAC and beyond Staff from the COMESA Secretariat and the World Bank Members of the Print and Electronic Media May I simply say, distinguished ladies and gentlemen It is a great honor and privilege for me to be here with you this morning, to officiate during this important event - the COMESA Regional Forum on Climate Risks and Food Security Resilience. Allow me to begin my statement by congratulating Ms. Chileshe Kapwepwe on her recent appointment as Secretary General of COMESA and to assure you that the Government of the Republic Zambia, as host on the COMESA Secretariat, will continue to work with your institution to ensure its success in advancing the regional integration agenda through trade and investment. Let me also take this opportunity to welcome all our visitors to Zambia, and to this important Regional Forum, which seeks to provide a platform for high-level policy makers and technical experts in the COMESA region as well as technical and financial partners, to exchange knowledge and insights concerning modalities and potential tools aimed at reversing the region’s growing climate vulnerability. I hope you will take time during your short stay in Zambia to visit some of our interesting entertainment and touristic sites. I am also certain that you are already experiencing the warm hospitality that the Zambian people are well known for. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen For several decades, Zambia’s investment has been heavily concentrated in the copper mining sector, with negligible resources going into sectors that create and sustain productive employment such as agriculture, manufacturing and tourism. We also note that even though the country has been recording 46 | P a g e steady economic growth in recent years, poverty levels, particularly in the rural areas, remain at significantly high levels. This is despite that fact that we experienced a reduction in urban poverty by 25.6 percent, from 42 percent in 1991 to 23.4 percent in 2015, while rural poverty declined from 88 to 76.6 period during the same period. Ladies and Gentlemen Zambia’s long-term vision is to become a prosperous middle-income country by 2030, and sustainable development is one of the key basic principles on which Vision 2030 is founded. Within this context, the Patriotic Front Government believes that economic growth must be synonymous with rapidly increased incomes of rural people. to lift them out of poverty. The Seventh National Development Plan (2017- 2021) whose theme is focused on accelerating development efforts without leaving anyone behind, stresses the importance of inclusive economic growth that is associated with labor-intensive sectors, such as agriculture – a sector that provides employment, food security and nutrition, for the rural populations. My Government is keen therefore, to strengthen agriculture related policies and regulatory frameworks to enable effective economic transformation towards shared prosperity and improved livelihoods. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen Agriculture development and food security in our region, is at greater risk today than ever before due to several factors including: natural and human induced disasters, low public and private investments in relevant sectors, lack of effective evidence- based planning, weak institutional capacities etc. Furthermore, our countries are experiencing the impact of climate change and its related risks. Many of us here recall the 2015-2016 El Niño events that resulted in high temperatures, droughts and floods, posing a great risk and fueling crop failures, reduced income and generally, food and nutrition insecurity. This is all fresh in my memory, because my office is designed to deal with Disaster Management and Mitigation in Zambia. Risk Events are a major contributing factor to decline in Zambia’s agriculture GDP. Agriculture GDP avergaed 8.2% for the period 2011 to 2015 and declined to 5.3% due to El Niño and Fall Army Worm. For our countries in the region to achieve the aspirations of the 2014 African Union Malabo, there is a need for us to begin to share and use the scientific knowledge and evidence to inform how we manage climate and agriculture risks and to ensure food security resilience. You may wish to note that this is a matter that rests high on the agenda of my Government and is reflected in the Seventh National Development Plan. Zambia is keen to deal with production risks, market risks, financial risks, enabling environment risks as they relate to matters of agriculture development and food security. The Government welcomes partners such as the World Bank, COMESA and others to work with us in managing climate and agriculture related risks in our country. Ladies and Gentlemen I am told that an ENSO is 70% eminent in the horizon in our region. This Forum could not have been organized at a better time to look at country preparedness for such events and to share lessons, experiences and good practices on matters of climate change. I am keen to receive the outcomes of the discussions of this Forum and to be briefed on the way forward for the region, after your deliberations. 47 | P a g e In conclusion, let me to take this opportunity to thank COMESA and the World Bank for selecting Zambia to host this event and for inviting me to deliver this opening statement. My gratitude also extended to the organizers of the event and to all the technical experts from our member States, representatives from regional economic communities and other participants who are here to share and add value to this Forum. My message particularly to the Media is to ensure that we increase our knowledge sharing, communication and advocacy on this matter of climate risks and food security resilience to ensure that it is given due attention by all policy makers and stakeholders in the region. I wish you all a fruitful Forum. Thank you for your attention. I now declare this Forum officially Open. 48 | P a g e Annex 5: Statement by the COMESA Secretary General Your Honor Mrs. Inonge Wina, Vice President of the Republic of Zambia Dr. Simeon Ehui, Director for Agriculture Global Practice, World Bank Ms. Ina Rutenberg, Country Director, Zambia and Special Representative to COMESA for the World Bank Representatives of the World Bank and COMESA Members of the Media Distinguished participants Ladies and gentlemen We are greatly honored by the Government of the Republic of Zambia for hosting this event and gracing the opening ceremony for this regional Forum on climate risks and food security resilience. The forum is very timely as the adverse impacts of climate change are evident throughout the world and more so in our region where most of the people depend on rain-fed agriculture and other environmental resources for their sustenance. COMESA is very proud to jointly organize this forum in close partnership with the World Bank. Our partnership goes back many years wherein we continue to collaborate in diverse areas of common interest. I am especially pleased to welcome all participants particularly those from as far afield as the ASEAN region. COMESA cherishes this south-south collaboration to exchange of ideas and experiences. I trust that your time with us will be purposeful and worthwhile. Ladies and gentlemen, The essence of resilience is that tenacity essential for species and systems to survive and thrive. In other words, those that do not have this essential quality struggle to thrive and eventually perish. This fundamental principle is the main reason why the who is who of the world are seized with finding lasting solutions to the threats of climate change and enhancing the resilience of the systems that are essential for life on this planet. Likewise, the regional integration that we are pursuing in COMESA is also vulnerable to the vagaries of climate change and I will illustrate this with a few examples: • The economies of many of our member states are agriculture based and so the bulk of goods traded in the region are agriculture commodities or products derived therefrom. Maize, beans, sugar, tea, tobacco, livestock, poultry and dairy products, cotton textiles come to mind • Trade is primarily by road and many of the roads were not designed to withstand the heavy flooding we are witnessing because of climate change. • Many countries within our region such as DRC, Ethiopia and Zambia depend on clean renewable hydro-electric power. While this is progressive and green, in 2016 we saw the folly of depending primarily on this energy source when, due to El Niño induced drought, the level of Lake Kariba, 49 | P a g e shared by Zambia and Zimbabwe for generating electricity fell to its lowest level since the lake was constructed Ladies and gentlemen, Building resilience to the impacts of climate change of the agro-food systems, infrastructure and energy supplies is a top priority at COMESA. However, resilience is also needed to other natural and man-made disasters. A few years back, we saw how communicable diseases can quickly turn into a pandemic and paralyze a whole region when the deadly Ebola ravaged west Africa. As we speak, Ebola, cholera and typhoid lurk in our regions and are of grave concern. Regional integration entails interconnecting physical and non-physical national systems into regional systems. Examples are road, rail, communications, electricity grids, financial, tourism and health systems. It is imperative that we build resilience into these systems as they are the mechanisms through which we deliver regional integration. Distinguished participants Ladies and gentlemen For these interventions to succeed, there needs to be: • High level of awareness especially at the leadership levels • Enabling national and regional policy environment • Human and institutional capacity to effectively deal with the issues • Technology development, transfer and diffusion • Access to financing This regional Forum is a major step in the right direction in this regard. Through your discussions and exchanges, we look forward to harvesting ideas and insights that will inform and underpin our future actions. Whilst you are at it, may I implore you to devise innovative ways of bringing in the private sector to create new business out of doing the right things in this regard. The youth bulge is upon us and in many countries, the front of this bulge has breached the 30-year mark. The future is bleak for many of these young people. The challenge is for the sustainable development agenda to create meaningful jobs and pacify this restless element of society that now exceeds 50% of the population and still growing. Agriculture technology has been stagnant in many countries leading to lack of interest in it by most youths resulting in many of them migrating into urban areas. Bringing in modern technology and mechanization should reverse this trend. In the same vein, urban agriculture is an increasingly important food security and resilience measure for the urban poor. Countries must recognize, regulate and facilitate this subsector. In countries like Cuba, urban and peri urban agriculture accounts for more than half the agricultural output. 50 | P a g e Ladies and gentlemen, Finally, and on a positive note, many of our member states already have a head start on the green economy race as they are among the lowest emitters of green-house gases blamed for climate change. Green technology options for development now widely available and affordable for the countries to launch themselves onto a sustainable low carbon growth and development pathway. With these few remarks, I thank you for your attention and wish you successful deliberations. 51 | P a g e Annex 6: Welcome Remarks by Simeon Ehui, Director, Agriculture Global Practice 1. Salutations 2. Thank you, Ms. Mebeelo, (Moderator), Hon. VP Inonge Wina, distinguished guests. On behalf of the World Bank, I am honored to be here with you today for the opening of this 2-day Forum on Climate Risks and Resilience. 3. I would also like to extend special thanks to COMESA Secretariat for jointly preparing today’s event. I am delighted to see representatives and experts from ministries across the region, development partners as well as other stakeholders to participate in this Forum. 4. We gather at a time when food production is struggling to keep up as crop yields level off in many parts of the world and natural resources—including soils, water and biodiversity—are stretched dangerously thin. Over 800 million people worldwide go to bed hungry. The food security challenge will only become more difficult, as the world will need to produce about 70 percent more food by 2050 to feed an estimated 9 billion people. 5. This challenge is amplified by agriculture’s extreme vulnerability to climate change. Climate change’s negative impacts are already being felt, in the form of reduced yields and more frequent extreme weather events, affecting crops and livestock alike. Substantial investments in adaptation will be required to maintain current yields and to achieve the required production increases. 6. Agriculture is also a major part of the climate problem. It currently generates 19–29% of total GHG emissions. Without action, that percentage could rise substantially as other sectors reduce their emissions. 7. Safeguarding livelihoods and strengthening resilience in the face of growing climate threats is among the greatest challenges of the 21st Century. This is particularly true in the case of agriculture. 8. Many of you recall just a few short years ago when record-high temperatures, droughts and floods, fuelled by one of the strongest El Niño events in recent decades crippled agricultural production across East and Southern Africa. By early 2016, millions of households faced food insecurity as crops failed, incomes dropped, and food stocks tightened. Several countries in the region were hit particularly hard. Drought-ravaged South Africa—which normally accounts for roughly half of the region’s yellow maize output—was forced to import maize from abroad for the first time in nearly a decade. In neighbouring Malawi and Mozambique retail maize prices spiked, nearly doubling in a few short months. 9. Mounting concerns by governments, the World Bank and other development partners catalysed rapid and converted action to respond to the crisis and to document and learn from the experience. This has generated a wealth of new understanding and insights with strong scope to inform governments’ forward policy planning and investments. We forward to hearing about some of those lessons during this Forum. 10. Today with the looming threat of another extreme El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean in coming months, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) puts the 52 | P a g e probability as much as 75%. And while this El Niño is not expected to be as strong as the last, we shouldn’t underestimate its potential to upend lives and livelihoods. 11. Enabling investments and policies to build resilience to ENSO can also help us build resilience to climate change. This is urgent. As you know, the IPCC’s latest report warns that limiting warming to 1.5C is barely feasible and every year we delay, the window of feasibility halves. But, it also highlights that limiting warming to 1.5°C can result in significantly smaller net reductions in yields of maize, rice, wheat, and potentially other cereal crops, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Livestock is also projected to be adversely affected with rising temperatures. All said, for the optimists among us, there’s still hope. Just last week, the UN Secretary General, at the World Bank’s Annual Meetings in Bali, called for a switch to climate-friendly sustainable agriculture. 12. The World Bank Group (WBG) is currently scaling up climate-smart agriculture. Under the Climate Change Action Plan, the World Bank committed to working with countries to deliver climate-smart agriculture that achieves the triple win of increased productivity, enhanced resilience, and reduced emissions. This commitment amounted to a record-setting $20.5 billion in climate-related finance delivered during the last fiscal year - the result of an institution-wide effort to mainstream climate considerations into all development projects. 13. We know that climate smart agriculture is within reach. We are glad to have here with us today experts from a wide range of CSA projects and activities to share their experience of making agriculture climate smart. 14. Climate-smart agricultural practices can reverse the trends of land degradation, sustain food production, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve ecosystem services that makes agriculture more resilient. 15. The World Bank’s engagement on climate action with our client countries is rapidly growing: • In 2016, we committed to ensure 100% of agriculture operations are climate-smart by 2010. We achieved this goal in less than two years. • In 2016, we also committed to develop climate-smart agriculture profiles and/or investment plans for 40+ countries. By now, we have accomplished this goal for 20 countries, several of those are in Eastern and Southern Africa. We’ll be hearing on Friday about the Climate-Smart Investment Plan (CSIP) developed here in Zambia. • We’ve generated 45% climate co-benefits generated by the AgGP’s US$4.6 billion in new lending delivered in FY18. • The World Bank’s main lending arms, IBRD and IDA, have almost doubled the share of projects that deliver climate co-benefits, increasing from 37 percent in FY16 to 70 percent in FY18. • And World Bank financing for developing countries to adapt and build resilience to climate change also grew – with $7.7 billion in adaptation investments in FY18 compared to $3.9 billion the previous year. 53 | P a g e • Now, close to half (49 percent) of all World Bank climate finance is devoted to adaptation, demonstrating a commitment to focus as much on supporting countries to adapt to climate change as on mitigating future emissions. • From January 2016 to April 2018, the World Bank’s Board of Directors approved 83 projects supporting climate-smart agriculture in Africa with cumulative investments of US$3.8 billion. • Spreading across 30 countries, the projects aim to improve the livelihoods of about 5 million farmers and increase the climate resilience and productivity of about 3 million hectares of land. • Out of the $3.8 billion invested, the total climate co-benefits, that is, the amount of finance flowing into agricultural adaptation and mitigation is $1.5 billion. Some 66 percent of the climate finance flows into adaptation in Africa. • Higher finance flows to adaptation compared to mitigation reflect the priorities of African countries to urgently address the continent’s agricultural sector’s climate vulnerability and increase resilience. • We are targeting to further expand the share of Climate Smart Agriculture triple win projects (to 66% over FY20-FY25, this is still internal) and further deploy a full range of analytical and funding instruments for CSA interventions. • We (as WB) are currently in the process of developing an Adaptation and Resilience Strategy, including setting up Post-2020 Climate Targets and Actions, where agriculture will be also featured. 16. Some examples of Bank-supported financing for climate action include: • In Niger, a CSA project aims to benefit 500,000 farmers and agro pastoralists in 44 communes through the distribution of improved, drought-tolerant seeds, more efficient irrigation, and expanded use of agroforestry and conservation agriculture techniques. • In Rwanda for example, the flagship program on Land Husbandry, Water Harvesting, and Hillside Irrigation Project, aimed to better manage rainfall in key watersheds so that it causes less hillside erosion. • In Senegal, the West Africa Agricultural Productivity Program (WAAPP) has developed seven new high-yielding, early-maturing, drought resistant varieties of sorghum and millet. Released in 2012, these varieties are being widely diffused to farmers and show positive yield results. • We are providing 38 million people in 18 countries with access to reliable climate information and early warning systems to deal with more frequent and intense natural disasters such as floods and hurricanes. 17. Beyond finance, good policy is critical. Farmers require the right mix of incentives to adopt needed adaptation and mitigation measures. Here, it’s worth highlighting that current US$ 600 billion/year support programs for agriculture across the world, including price support measures 54 | P a g e and input subsidies, often provide perverse incentives. This needs to change. We need better, more systematic thinking on how to redirect these support programs for better climate outcomes. 18. In sum, building resilience in the agricultural system is an opportunity to make progress a across a wide range of sustainable development goals – poverty, climate, nutrition and health. It’s a universal agenda we can all get behind. 19. We hope this Forum will provide a constructive and useful platform for COMESA members states to share their experiences and lessons learned in preparing for and responding to the last El Niño event. We also hope to hear about best practice investments and policies with strong scope to ensure we are better prepared for the next crisis. We also hope that we will all take away a better understanding of what works, what doesn’t work as well, and what we can do collectively to push forward on this critical agenda. I think we would all agree that within the context of growing climate risks, with impacts that scale well beyond national borders, no country can afford any longer to go it alone and we need to find collective pathways to confront what is a shared, global challenge. Regionalism—embodied by regional organizations like COMESA—must play its part. 20. I’d like to thank our colleagues from COMESA for co-organizing this event. I’d also like to recognize those representing EAC, IGAD, SADC and ASEAN for joining us today for this Forum. 21. Finally, I would like to encourage all of you to participate actively in today’s discussions, share the achievements you have made and challenges you face, and provide your advice in developing strategies, building capacities at all levels and plan of action to prepare and respond to ENSO and reducing climate vulnerability. The World Bank looks forward to working with you to enhance ENSO preparedness and resilience to climate change. Once again, a very warm welcome to all, and I look forward to your actively participation and contributions. Thank you. 55 | P a g e Annex 7: Keynote Address by Adebisi Araba, Regional Director, Africa, CIAT Protocols Your Excellency, Mrs. Inonge Wina, Vice President of the Republic of Zambia, Honorable Mr. Dev Haman, Acting Secretary General, COMESA, Dr. Simeon Ehui, Director, Agriculture Global Practice, World Bank, Dr. Ina-Marlene Ruthenberg, Country Manager, Zambia, World Bank, Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen. Good Morning! I would like to extend special thanks to the World Bank Group, as well as the leadership team and members of COMESA for organizing this gathering of stakeholders, working to strengthen the foundations of agriculture transformation in Africa. What does agriculture transformation entail? It entails evolving systems, practices and policies to make the sector resilient to shocks and stresses, highly productive, globally competitive and sustainable, able to deliver food and nutrition security, while also economic development and shared prosperity. Agriculture transformation compels us to reassess the role of agriculture in economic development. Typically, we find that responses center around climate adapted and low emission technologies. We need to adopt a more nuanced appreciation for food systems and how they interact with the financial, environment, trade, legal, social, infrastructural, communications and education systems amongst many others. We need to embrace the complexity of these interactions and understand that agriculture – and its development – cannot succeed in a vacuum. This may help us sidestep the risk of speaking to the converted within an echo chamber and not engaging with all relevant stakeholders. The total GDP of the COMESA region is just under a trillion dollars. The agriculture sector contributes about 20% of this, most of which comes from primary production. Data indicates that the agriculture sector is growing along with other sectors of the economy. Crucially, the percentage contribution of agriculture production to GDP is showing a downward trend, indicating that other sectors of the economy are growing and new ones coming on stream. The pie is getting bigger and productivity is increasing. The emergence of these new sectors is encouraging, as these interactions can be expected to lead to the creation of new technologies and opportunities to further diversify the agriculture sector and stimulate the creation of higher quality jobs further up the value chain in the provision of new products and services (summary – growth and diversification is happening). This is the promise of agribusiness. I also would like to congratulate COMESA on its recent expansion and admission of Tunisia and Somalia as member states, bringing its total membership to 21 countries. Also, special commendation goes to Hon Kapwepwe for her leadership in ushering in the African Continental Free Trade Area, which will create one of the world’s largest trading blocs and accelerate the pace of increased internal trade in Africa. This is not happening in a vacuum. These gains have been achieved through public sector enabled, private sector led investments in productivity, sustainability and competitiveness. Ladies and Gentlemen, these foundations for agriculture transformation are not yet firm. These gains face threats and risk being wiped away completely. 56 | P a g e The last El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, which occurred just under three years ago, hit agriculture and food production systems hard, leading to large-scale crop failure, loss of income for millions, decimated food stocks and contributed to severe spikes in inflation. As you know, climate and weather systems do not contain themselves within political borders. The last ENSO is estimated to have had severe impact on COMESA member countries – the most vulnerable region in Africa. By late 2015, estimates placed more than 15 million people in central and eastern Ethiopia alone at food security risk following the worst drought there in 50 years. This year, Kenya, which just emerged from a prolonged drought, has experienced massive flooding, devastating cropped land, with one major incident involving the failure of an alleged illegally constructed of dam, which led to the loss of over 40 lives. Meanwhile drought conditions in South Africa— a country which normally accounts for roughly half of the region’s yellow maize output—forced authorities to import maize from abroad for the first time in nearly a decade. In neighboring Malawi and Mozambique retail maize prices spiked, nearly doubling in a few short months. These crises threaten prosperity. They stifle growth, destabilize development plans and cause unimaginable hardship to millions of Africans. It is therefore not a question of why we should act to fortify ourselves against the shocks and stresses brought upon by ENSO – the value proposition is quite clear. It is a question of how we achieve this. Unmitigated weather-related risks in the agriculture sector is a nightmare for all stakeholders in agriculture and food systems. Climate and weather alone account for about one-third of staple crop yield variability on average globally, and over two-thirds of yield variability for maize in parts of eastern and southern Africa. No one is insulated from the fallout of livestock or crop failure. It is simply bad for business. These shocks contribute to food shortages, spikes in the price of commodities, increase in the cost of financial services, the enactment of knee-jerk trade barriers – sometimes accompanied by additional externalities, malnutrition is exacerbated, businesses – all the way from on farm, through agro-dealerships and retail, collapse. Migration, internal displacement of people, conflict, civil unrest and even governments may lose elections. The core value proposition of the ability of the agriculture sector – to lift millions out of poverty and entire economies on the pathway to prosperity – is threatened and so solutions should engage our full intellect and complete attention. With a 70 percent chance of another extreme ENSO threat imminent, this gathering affords us the opportunity to take stock of the emerging lessons on good practice and strategies for strengthening the resilience of food systems and opportunities for regional collaboration within COMESA and beyond to face this challenge head on. Winston Churchill once said that “those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” I would like to share with you a few ideas on what we need to do to arm ourselves with the know-how to prepare for the next ENSO. We need to step up regional cooperation. A short while ago, I had mentioned the creation of the African Continental Free Trade Area. This should form a crucial bridge, where we mainstream disaster risk management and internalize the risks from climate shocks and stresses into region-wide food and trade policies. It is important that as an economic region, we work to de-risk food systems, we create 57 | P a g e platforms for partners to understand why no one can go it alone or must bear an undue share of the burden. These platforms should foster participation and collaboration on strategies for policy synergy at the regional level and implementation at the national and sub-national levels. An example of this is the Forum for Agricultural Risk Management in Development, FARMD, a multi-stakeholder, knowledge sharing platform that enables stakeholders to share experiences, gain access to information and best practices, engage in constructive dialogues, and build partnerships. Aligned to this could also be the opportunity to create a virtual strategic food reserve network among member states, where forward planning will afford member states the opportunity to operate a system where stocks could be built up and released in times of shocks, dampening price spikes and promoting resilience. We can learn from the work in the ASEAN region, where, after the price spikes of 2007/2008, the ASEAN Summit of 2009 developed regional political frameworks through the ASEAN Integrated Food Security Framework and Strategic Plan of Action on Food Security, to place food security as a permanent and high-level policy priority and putting the region on the pathway to long-term resilience. The is the establishment of an emergency rice reserve. In partnership with China, Japan and the Republic of Korea, the ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR) Agreement was designed to strengthen rice production, prevent post-harvest losses, promote labor opportunities and provide rapid responses in overcoming rice supply shortages in emergencies occurring in any of the signatory countries. We need to improve the quality of evidence-based decisions for the public sector, as well as for private enterprise. To achieve this, we need to invest in research and the acquisition and use of high- resolution climate data. Change begins with liberating access to information. For years countries have struggled with documenting weather information, talk less of making it available for use. I have a personal experience with this. In a former job, working as a Senior Advisor in the government in Nigeria, I requested for rainfall data for in-house analysis. The meteorological agency asked the Ministry of Agriculture to pay for the data! In short, the Nigerian government wanted to charge the Nigerian government for data that the Nigerian government paid to create! If it was this disjointed for me, how bad is it for the private sector? The cost of high-resolution satellite data has become more affordable through improved technologies and competition. Through partnership with aWhere, the World Bank and the Kenyan Agriculture and Livestock Research Organization, are working to synthesize and make available high-resolution weather data, combining satellite information with existing information from weather stations under the Kenya Agricultural Observatory program. The near real time, higher resolution data improves the quality of decision making for both the public sector and private sector who utilize it. This is Big Data being used on a scale unimaginable a few years ago. It is hoped that the output and application programming interphase from this partnership will be made open and free, to encourage the wide adoption and use by consumers and service providers. The Big Data platform of the CGIAR is also well placed to convene, coordinate and inspire partners on the acquisition, analysis and use of Big Data for improving decision making for all stakeholders. Another example worth sharing is the Nutrition Early Warning System, or NEWS, being developed by colleagues at CIAT. NEWS leverages Big Data and artificial intelligence to synthesize conventional and non-conventional socio-economic data to inform and improve decision making on nutrition from the household level, up to the entire region. 58 | P a g e We will also need to look beyond weather related climate risks, as degraded soils, pests, diseases, migration and conflicts increase pressure on food systems. One example is a strategic initiative from CIAT on Agriculture Risk Management, which aims to utilize cutting edge science to de-risk and increase the flow of financial services to the sector. We need to commit to open and accessible data. COMESA member states should commit to making climate data open and free. We should collectively focus on scaling up investments, not just in acquiring and analyzing data, but also to create open-source platforms for contribution and sharing, within countries and across the region to improve our preparedness and responses to early warnings. The CGIAR has an open access and open data policy across all 15-member Centers. The National Agriculture Research Systems in COMESA could collaborate with the CGIAR to accelerate the adoption of similar policies and promote knowledge sharing. Cataloguing data in open, accessible and malleable formats increases the likelihood of data being tested and validated and used by those who need them. We need to diversify income streams and production systems. Monocropping is a high reward, but high-risk venture, as we have experienced recently with the Fall Army Worm and the maize industry in the region. Without adequate insurance, lifetime investments could be wiped out in a single crisis episode. It is therefore important, for economic and nutrition security that we encourage the diversification of food and income streams of the most vulnerable populations, as well as national food stocks, to lessen the impact of any single event. Improving on-farm production diversity, especially through the introduction of nutrient dense foods such as legumes and vegetables, provides the added benefit of reducing the prevalence of malnutrition, if incentives are provided for these foods to be included in diets. This is also connected to having tactile breeding platforms and seed systems – for example, the Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa – adapted to climate forecasts. We need to improve the prioritization and decision systems for investment planning. Member states ought to adopt evidence-based decision support mechanisms, such as the Climate Smart Agriculture investment plans, as being championed by the World Bank under the Adaptation for African Agriculture (triple ‘A’) initiative. These plans lead on from with national priorities to advise on bankable projects for adapting and mitigating the impact of climate change. Aligned to this is also the need to develop dynamic climate risk profiles – at the national and sub-national levels – of member states. These profiles identify the severity of risk exposure at all points of the agriculture value chain and provide guidance for prioritizing investments in boosting resilience. We need to improve the stability of financial services for the agriculture sector. The business of agriculture is risky – in real and perceived terms. There is need for the research community and governments to generate the evidence and provide the enabling environment for public and private financial service providers to internalize climate risks in the design and use of their products and services. The management of climate risks should partially shift into market systems, to improve responses which provide the inceptives for the adoption of best practices due to market signals. National level risk sharing mechanisms, such as the Nigeria Incentive-Based Risk Sharing System for Agricultural Lending, NIRSAL – a US$500 Million public-private initiative to define, measure, price and 59 | P a g e share agribusiness related credit risk – should be adopted and designed to support the spread of financial services, particularly to the more vulnerable populations who do not have access, or typically qualify for financial services. We need to scale up the flow of commercial lending to the sector. Agriculture contributes over 20% to GDP in the COMESA region and about 30% across Africa, yet, total commercial lending to agriculture on the continent is under 3%. Sovereign level risks should be integrated into regional systems, such as the African Risk Capacity, ARC, to enable governments focus on investment planning for development, while allowing ARC and similar systems to internalize these risks for which they are designed. In addition to this, considering the inter-connectedness of food systems to wider economic development, we need to ensure that no one is left behind in participating in markets and the financial ecosystem. Financial inclusion of all populations, ensuring affordable, equitable and easy access to services, improves our understanding of the market size and needs and stimulates the development and provision of necessary services. There’s a Bemba proverb that goes “Imiti Ikula Empanga” meaning “Today's Bush is Tomorrow’s Forest.” I really like this proverb, because it captures the essence of investing today for a prosperous future. Today, I call on all stakeholders in member states of COMESA to rise to the challenge and commit to sharing, learning and investing in building resilient food systems. Thank you. 60 | P a g e Annex 8: Briefing - Concerns and Preparedness for a New El Niño Onset in Sub-Saharan Africa in Late Fall 2018 - September 10, 2018 Highlights • El Niño and its Impacts in Africa in 2015/2016 • Likelihood of a Late Fall 2018 El Niño • World Bank Preparedness • Recommendations for the World Bank ENSO The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring weather pattern resulting when ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, near the equator, vary from the norm.4 Changing weather patterns triggered by ENSO (El Niño, warming, la Niña, cooling) phases can have damaging impacts on agriculture, fisheries, and other climate and weather-sensitive sectors and exacerbate food insecurity conditions, particularly in areas of Africa that suffer chronic food insecurity conditions. The 2015-2016 El Niño event was the worst in 15 years, it was associated with massive crop failures in Southern Africa, floods in parts of East Africa, little or no harvests in many areas, and an extensive food security crisis. The El Niño phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years. Some global climate models suggest that the ENSO cycle will become more intense under climate change. Although grave concerns with respect to El Niño impacts on food security in Southern and Eastern Africa were somewhat alleviated after subsidence of Pacific Ocean temperatures in 2016, there is a strong likelihood of a new event in late Fall 2018, as will be shown below . World Bank preparedness for contingent financing of emergency response to El Niño impacts in Africa has improved considerably since 2016, but much remains to be done with clients to improve the resilience of their food systems. In addition, the World Bank needs to institute better ways to consult regularly across relevant Global Practices, brief the Africa RMT monthly, and provide outreach to client governments and relevant other international agencies on a regular basis. The 2015/2016 event and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa The usual effects of El Niño events on weather in Sub-Saharan Africa are to produce hot and dry spells from November to March in Southern Africa, with increased volatility of weather outcomes, in Eastern Africa, the usual effect is to produce heavier rain and flooding from October to January, in West Africa El Niño impacts tend to be less pronounced and over-ridden by other forces, although they could contribute to a poor rainy season from July to September in the Sahelian belt.5 Record-high temperatures, droughts, and floods crippled agricultural production in East and Southern Africa in 2015/16. In some cases, this was due to the amplification by El Niño of the effects of drought in 4 Water temperature greater than 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal is an anomaly and this repeated for three months leads to the designation of an El Niño event. See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml 5 Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Global Solutions Group, “El Niño Briefing Note: Potential impacts and options for WBG response” DRM & Resilience Updates. World Bank, December 20, 2015. 61 | P a g e the preceding years. By early 2016, millions of households across the region faced food insecurity as crops failed, incomes dropped, and food and labor markets tightened. Several countries in the region were hit particularly hard. By late 2015, estimates placed more than 15 million people in central and eastern Ethiopia alone at food security risk following the worst drought there in 50 years.6 In Southern Africa, 40 million people were classified as food insecure and in need of assistance by the World Food Program in January 2017.7 Severe drought in South Africa--a normal source of imports for surrounding countries in poor harvest years--forced authorities to import maize from abroad for the first time in nearly a decade.8 In East Africa, widespread flooding in Kenya ravaged cropland and displaced thousands. Only Tanzania and Zambia had surplus grain production in the sub-region. Retail maize prices spiked in many countries, nearly doubling in domestic currency in Malawi and Mozambique.9 Like policies adopted during the global food price spikes of 2008, some governments moved aggressively to secure food stocks, stabilize prices, and ensure the availability of maize . Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe all declared national emergencies, and by July 2016, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) had declared a regional drought emergency. As in earlier episodes, policy makers appear to have focused on food availability and cost, particularly in urban areas, imposing export bans in exporting countries and importing food in deficit countries and countries subject to strong adverse shocks. Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe all implemented quantitative restrictions on maize exports. Farm incomes suffered from a combination of much lower yields and prices lower than they would otherwise be. Poverty spiked in both urban and rural areas.10 Several takeaways of relevance here emerge from the sad experiences of 2015-2016.11 • El Niño events do affect weather broadly in East and Southern Africa, and in ways generally not favourable to agriculture. • While the effects tend to be drought in the Southern countries and excess rainfall in the Eastern countries, these effects can be reversed in some areas, as witnessed by the extreme drought in Ethiopia and flooding in parts of Namibia. • El Niño tends to contribute to already high volatility of weather outcomes, which is particularly bad for agricultural resilience when yields are low and dependent on rainfall. • Policy stances matter greatly to the capacity of all people in the sub-region, and especially the poor with limited resources of their own, to adapt to the major changes in food availability wrought by El Niño events. 6 Al-Mamun et al., Assessment of El Niño Impacts and Grain Trade Policy Responses in East and Southern Africa. IFPRI, IAPRI and World Bank. Washington, D.C. December 2017. 7 World Food Programme, “El Niño Food Security Impact 2015-2016”. Infographic. Rome, WFP September 2016. 8 Baudoin, M.-A. et al., “Living with drought in South Africa: lessons learnt from the recent El Niño drought period”, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (23) 2017, 128-137. 9 Al-Mamun et al. Op. Cit. 10 Al-Mamun et al. Op. Cit. 11 Al-Mamun et al. Op. Cit.; Botha, B. et al., Hard Hit by El Niño: Experiences, Responses, and Options for Malawi. Washington, D.C., World Bank, 2017; Dorosh, P. et al. El Niño and Cereal Production Shortfalls: Policies for Resilience and Food Security in 2016 and Beyond. Washington, D.C., IFPRI Food Policy Brief, April 2016; Republic of Mozambique and World Bank, Mozambique: Food Market Monitoring and Resilient Agriculture Planning. Washington, D.C., World Bank Report ACS25019, June 2018. 62 | P a g e • Sometimes well-meaning policies targeted to one group, such as export bans to manage urban prices, do the most harm to other groups. Many of these lessons were learned by clients in the aftermath of the global food price crisis of 2008. As in the case of development partners, institutional memories of governments in the countries involved are sometimes weak, and expediency often triumphs in emergency situations. • Where emergency assistance was most needed, for example in Ethiopia and Malawi, time was of the essence and access to rapidly disbursing financial assistance was key to successful response. The evidence for a new El Niño in Southern and Eastern Africa in late Fall 2018 Since late 2016 and through the early and mid-summer of 2018, East-Central Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions, but there has been a shift in probabilities as of late summer 2018.12 The most recent consensus forecasts (mid-August) endorsed by the United States Weather Service (NOAA) show a 70% probability of the onset of an El Niño (warming) in the November 2018 to January 2019 period, as illustrated in Figure 1. Figure 1 August 2018 Official NOAA-Columbia University ENSO Forecasts 2018-2019 Source: Consensus forecast NOAA Climate Prediction Center and Columbia University International Research Center for Climate and Society, August 9, 2018, see https://iri.columbia.edu/news/august-climate-briefing-winds-breathe-life-into-probable-el-Niño-development/ Notes: The time periods on the horizontal axis are three-month periods; the highest probability of an El Niño (warm) event of 70% is forecast for November-December-January 2018 (NDJ). 12 Columbia University International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), see: https://iri.columbia.edu/news/august-climate-briefing-winds-breathe-life-into-probable-el-nino-development/ and (U.S.) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center (NOAA-CPC), see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 63 | P a g e CPC has now issued an official El Niño “watch” for the period in question, the precursor to an “advisory” issued once an El Niño event is confirmed.13 The consensus view from the modeling so far is that the El Niño event likely to occur from November onwards, although it will likely not be as strong as the one that caused such havoc in 2015-2016 in Southern Africa. The consensus modeling view calls for an anomaly of approximately a 1 degree Celsius (i.e. higher than normal) in water temperatures in the NDJ period in 2018-19.14 The late August 2018 consensus of climate experts in the sub-region, as reported by the SADC Climate Services Center (CSC) reporting on an a large assessment meeting in Lusaka, is that the rainfall outlook for the SADC region from October 2018 to March 2019 is “Normal to Below Normal” for all of the region except for a curved belt stretching from Angola to Northern Mozambique, where it is “Normal to Above Normal”. While not alarmist in tone, these anomalies have serious implications for food production and rural incomes in the region, the CSC accordingly notes the need to prepare for impacts on agriculture.15 World Bank preparedness to assist clients with contingent finance in handling a new El Niño event beginning in late Fall 2018 During the 2015/2016 El Niño event, the World Bank and other international institutions played a critical role in supporting nations in Eastern and Southern affected by the crisis, through the provision of targeted technical assistance and financing government responses for mitigating evolving food security crises. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimated in December 2016 that the need for humanitarian response arising primarily from the impacts of El Niño in Ethiopia and Somalia at the time was of the order of US$2.5 billion, of which roughly US$1.5 billion were raised. In Southern Africa, Angola, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland and Zimbabwe were estimated to have need of over US$1.3 billion and to have secured US$800 million.16 The World Bank was heavily engaged in this respect through technical assistance, the putting in place of contingent finance arrangements, and capacity-building for future crises. In-depth technical assistance projects targeted to dealing with the crisis in the food area were undertaken in 11 countries of the sub-region. Post-disaster needs assessments were undertaken in Malawi and Angola. Rapid funding estimated at US$545 million was carried out through a variety of mechanisms, including project restructuring in Angola, Lesotho, Malawi and Swaziland, additional financing to existing projects in Ethiopia, Lesotho, Madagascar, and Mozambique, an Emergency Recovery Loan in Malawi, and 13 Ibid. 14 Ibid. Probabilistic estimates are based on modeling; in this case there is a remarkable confluence of the average predictions from 18 dynamical models and 8 statistical models reviewed by Columbia’s IRI and the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expert consensus view for the November through January period. The El Niño water temperature anomaly in the same region of the Pacific in the Fall of 2015 was well above 2 degrees Celsius, see: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-phenomenal-cosmic- powers 15 Southern African Development Community Climate Services Center (CSC). “Early Warning Bulletin on the 2018/19 Southern Africa Rainfall Season”, Gabarone, SADC -CSC August 2019 16 UN, OCHA, “Overview of El Niño Response in East and Southern Africa as of Dec. 1 2016”, New York, United Nations, OCHA. 64 | P a g e contingent funding through the Bank’s Immediate Response Mechanism in Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, and Mozambique.17 The Immediate Response Mechanism was approved by the World Bank Board in December 2011 as a means to use funds already in countries’ IDA envelopes rapidly. It allows IDA countries to access up to 5 percent of their undisbursed IDA investment project balances following a crisis based on agreement between World Bank Africa Region (AFR) senior management and the Ministry of Finance of the country concerned. Small states and countries with small undisbursed balances can access up to $5 million. It complements longer-term emergency response tools available to IDA countries, such as the Crisis Response Window, offering them financial support within weeks. The pro-active inclusion of Contingent Emergency Response Components (CERCs) in selected existing and/or future investment projects facilitates a very rapid disbursement of funds usable for emergency response, it was used to good effect in Southern Africa in 2015-2016. 18 Increasingly client governments of the World Bank in Africa have opted to include stand-alone Contingent Emergency Response Components (CERCs) in their IDA or IBRD projects. These CERCs are included in project documents that go through regular World Bank and Host Government approval processes, typically with a zero-dollar initial funding allocation. Current procedures then allow a rapid restructuring of project expenditures in already approved projects with these components, to support emergency responses agreed to be necessary by both parties at the executive level without having to seek World Bank Board or national Parliamentary approval that would normally be necessary. The need for these specific responses were not foreseen at the time of approval of the original project that is being restructured, but the CERC elements allow maximum speed and flexibility in accessing emerging funding.19 Although CERCs have been around since at least 2006 in some form, practical applications really began with the introduction of IRM CERCs in December 2011. The Bank’s Africa Region (AFR) presently has 78 active projects with CERCs of some kind in place. At least one third of these by value have come about in the past two fiscal years, as shown in Table 1. Table 1: Numbers and Value of Projects in AFR Initiated FY 2006 to FY2018 with CERC Components FISCAL YEAR OF OVERALL VALUE NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER PROJECT OF PROJECTS NUMBER OF PROJECTS WITH OF PROJECTS APPROVAL APPROVED WITH PROJECTS WITH Stand-alone INITIATED WITH (IDA/IBRD CERCs IRM-CERCs CERCs CERCs PROJECTS) (US$ Millions)1 2006-2016 3,978.81 26 19 452 2017-2018 1,931.50 32 4 36 17 World Bank, “Africa-El Niño Update”. Washington D.C., World Bank Management Brief, October 2016. 18 Development Committee of the Governors of the World Bank, “Progress Report on Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management in World Bank Group Operations”, Washington, D.C., World Bank, World Bank Report DC 2016 -004, March 25, 2016 19 Ibid. 65 | P a g e 2006-2018 5,910.25 58 23 81 Note: (1) Data as of August 27, 2018. These are primarily investment lending projects, and primarily IDA. The share of IBRD in total grew over the period, reaching just over 5% in 2017-2018. (2) Includes 3 projects ( 2 stand-alone CERCs and 1 IRM CERC) that were no longer active in August 2018. Source: World Bank DRM, CERC Analytics Dashboard V3 Updated August 27, 2018 Over US$ 4.320 billion in undisbursed balances presently (August 27, 2018) resides in IDA/IBRD projects in AFR that have CERC components that can be activated for emergency response. More than US$2.5 billion of this is from projects approved with CERC elements in FY 17 and FY 18, including just under US$ 1.4 billion for countries in Eastern and Southern Africa as a whole or US$1.1 billion in COMESA countries. These projects were under preparation during a period of El Niño impacts, but were mostly approved after the 2015-2016 El Niño had receded. Furthermore, the investment lending projects that account for almost all these new funds in FY2017 and FY2018 come from projects across the spectrum of thematic sectors served by the World Bank, from sources as diverse as agriculture, urban, social, health, education, transport, environment, water, and so forth. To date (August 27, 2018), only 6 projects in AFR have CERCs that have been activated, 4 in Southern Africa and 2 in Western Africa. All of these involved use of the Immediate Response Mechanism. There has been an expansion of overall IDA lending in Africa across all sectors in FY 2018. More remarkable for present purposes, there has been the inclusion of CERC components in most new projects approved in FY 2017 and FY 2018 that will facilitate rapid financial response as needed going forward. With US$ 4.3 billion in undisbursed balances in active projects in AFR with CERC components (few of which have been activated to date), there is considerable reserve capacity for financing new emergency response. If every project in AFR with CERCs contributed 5% of its undisbursed balances, this would yield an upper limit estimate of US$215 million available at short notice for AFR as of August 27, 2018, or US$70 million for countries in Eastern and Southern Africa, or US$ 55 million in COMESA countries. The amount available to any one country in this way could not exceed the amount allowed by the undisbursed balances of its own projects, or US$ 5 million, whichever is larger. Beyond contingent finance, the real business of preparation for El Niño in countries likely to be affected is to adopt policies and make mainstream investments in advance of foreseeable problems that mitigate harm from and increase the resiliency of real incomes and food entitlements to weather shocks. The particulars will vary by country and time period. Conceptually, increasing the capacity for adaptation requires a thorough ex-ante assessment of pertinent risks and a cost-effective plan for addressing them. The details go beyond the limited scope of the present brief, but an excellent example has recently been published for Zambia, for example, to which the reader is referred.21 However some generic recommendations that arise from recent experiences and should form the core of what countries should strive for. Four generic recommendations that have stood the test of time and a plea 20 World Bank DRM, CERC Analytics Dashboard V3 Updated August 27, 2018 21 Braimoh, A. et al. Increasing Agricultural Resilience through Better Risk Management in Zambia. World Bank Washington DC. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO. 66 | P a g e • As in all disaster response, the first need is for as early warning of problems as possible and as comprehensive coverage of places affected as possible, Early Warning Systems need not only detect, but get the relevant information in a useful form to those who need it in a timely manner.22 Experience shows that governments do not always know where the worst affected are or how to reach them. • As in all disaster response, the worst effects tend to come from lack of information sharing and lack of communication amongst the multiple persons and agencies that need to act quickly. Governments should consider setting up or reactivating multi-stakeholder coordinating groups on food security that include relevant government and private sector actors, civil society, and development partners. • Every country should implement a comprehensive risk assessment with respect to food security. There are a broad variety of tools available to mitigate different kinds of risks at different costs. In some cases, a financial engineering solution (such as a line of credit) will be far more cost effective than a physical solution (such as grain stocks). In others, a physical solution such as stepped up animal disease monitoring and vaccination will be far more cost effective than an expensive contingent financial instrument.23 • It will be vital for countries to review policies in place that prevent markets from transmitting price signals for food within countries and across countries in well-defined sub-regions such as COMESA. Markets play a vital smoothing role for volatile prices, and well-functioning markets greatly increase the capacity for adaptation to shocks. Experience from 2008 to 2012 clearly showed that attempts to use quantitative trade restrictions to mitigate food price rises backfired on the imposing countries directly, and indirectly through lost goodwill on the part of neighbors whose access to food imports was curtailed.24 • Development partners should stand ready to assist countries that wish to make progress in the four areas above. It is only a matter of time before problems faced in 2015-2016 resume. 22 See Braimoh et al., Assessment of Food Security Early Warning Systems for East and Southern Africa, Washington, D.C. ,World Bank, Africa Climate Business Plan Series, January 2018. Also see Southern African Development Community Climate Services Center (CSC), Op. Cit., for a practical example. 23 For an actual case of the latter, see World bank, Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment in Niger: Moving from crisis response to long-term risk management Washington, D.C., World Bank, January 2013. 24 World Bank, Global Monitoring Report 2012: Food Prices, Nutrition, and the Millennium Development Goals Washington, D.C., World Bank, 2012. 67 | P a g e