Transboundary Characteristics of Weather and Natural Hazards Regional In South Asia, weather patterns and climate risks are trans-boundary requiring a sub-regional or regional Program for response. For instance, cyclones occurring in the Bay of Bengal affect a number of countries particularly Bangladesh and eastern coastal Hydromet states of India. Between March and May, severe thunderstorms develop that commonly affect northeastern India, Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh. Services and Though not as visible as tropical cyclones, they silently take their toll on livelihoods and property causing damages worth millions of dollars Resilience across the sub-region. The South Asian monsoon system delivers 70% to 80% of the rainfall to most South Asian countries. Seasonal changes in the timing, duration and variability of precipitation pose serious risks to key sectors such as agriculture and hydropower in a number of South Asia: Program Brief countries. The Indus, Ganga and the Brahmaputra, all of which are trans- boundary, provide a lifeline to over a Economic and Social Impact of Disasters and billion people in the region. However, Climate Risks in South Asia during the monsoon season, they carry large amounts of silt-laden South Asia is highly prone to weather and water related runoff, contributing to flooding and disasters such as flooding, drought, thunderstorms and extensive damage over large areas, cyclones. In the past two decades, over 50% of South Asians, often cross border in nature. that is, more than 750 million people have been affected by at least one natural disaster. The social and economic costs of such hazards have been staggering with almost 230,000 Productivity and Performance people dead and USD 45 billion in damages between 1970 and of Key Economic Sectors 2008. In India, direct losses from natural disasters constituted influenced by Weather, Water 2% of the country’s GDP and approximately 12% of central and Climate information government revenue in 2003. Pakistan has suffered losses in Services the order of USD 16 billion since 2005 due to natural disasters. In Bhutan, damages related to the 2009 cyclone Aila were close The performance of the region’s to USD 17 million. key economic sectors such as agriculture, aviation, water, urban infrastructure, is an essential first step, regional collaboration is fisheries, hydropower, and tourism depends upon crucial. First, weather patterns such as tropical weather information based services. However, cyclones, monsoons and severe thunderstorms are users and communities have limited access to trans-boundary and best monitored, understood weather information products tailored to these and predicted by taking a regional and global sectors. For instance, in countries across the perspective. Second, there is a demand from each region, the weather dependent agriculture sector country in the region for regional information on provides employment to a large section of the weather and climate (such as tropical cyclone population. Yet, farmers typically do not have forecasts over the Bay of Bengal or regional access to agro-weather advisories, bulletins or drought or monsoon forecasts) and a demand seasonal forecasts to support decision making from regional centers--for example, from the at the farm level, thus impacting agricultural Regional Specialized Meteorology Center (RSMC) productivity. In Bhutan, home to one of the most located at the Indian Meteorological Department dangerous airports in the world, aviation safety is (IMD)--for weather related information (such as for atmospheric observations over Bhutan or sea compromised due to limited access to information level information in the Bay of Bengal) to enable about visibility and turbulence. Some of the most them to make improved forecasts of regional flood prone mega-cities are located in South Asia. and sub-regional weather phenomenon (such as Yet, urban infrastructure operators often do not severe thunderstorms, storm surge forecasts) receive early warnings about extreme events that can benefit all affected countries. Regional to efficiently manage urban drainage systems. collaboration can help facilitate this exchange. Development of hydromet services can make a Third, there are economies of scale in regional critical contribution in enhancing the performance collaboration. For instance, at present, Bangladesh of these weather dependent economic sectors does not have the capacity to forecast extreme and strengthening resilience of local communities. events such as cyclones, thunderstorms and flash International experience suggests that for every floods with sufficient lead time and accuracy, or dollar invested, the estimated benefits are in the the capacity for long term climate monitoring range of two to ten US dollars. and prediction. Regional collaboration can allow it to build on information products and forecasts already being produced by regional entities rather Rationale for a Regional Program than investing in developing such capacity from the start. It can also foster learning and innovation While strengthening hydro-meteorological services in the development and delivery of weather, water and associated institutions at the country level and climate information based services. Objective Activities under this pillar include • USD 113 million IDA project on Bangladesh The main objective of this program is to strengthen Weather and Climate Services Regional Project institutions, facilitate knowledge exchange and Board Approval: June 2016 enhance cooperation with respect to hydro- • Bhutan Hydromet Services and Disaster meteorological risks and hydromet services Resilience Regional project USD 3.8 project. between South Asian countries. Specifically, Approved in September 2016. activities carried out under this umbrella program • Bank supported USD $31 million investment aim to strengthen the capacity of participating project in Nepal (under implementation) countries and institutions to respond to weather • Technical Assistance: Bhutan Roadmap for and water related hazards and climate risks at Modernization: Report published (Sept 2015), the national and regional levels, by supporting additional technical studies ongoing); improvements in monitoring, weather and flood • Technical Assistance in Afghanistan to develop forecasting, community based early warning a Roadmap and design of Early Warning systems and delivery of hydromet services to System (EWS) and strengthening hydromet users and communities. The Program is embedded services (ongoing). in the conceptual shift from management of water • Building on technical studies under the related disasters to management of risks and ongoing USD 152 million IDA Climate Resilient emphasizes strengthening both the supply and Improvement (CRIP) Project in Sri Lanka, demand aspects of hydromet service delivery. the IDA funded CRIP II (under preparation) is expected to support enhancement of hydromet services. Framework and Activities • USD 155 million Pakistan Hydromet and Climate Services Project IDA project (Under Preparation) The program has 2 pillars: Pillar 1: National level Preparedness, Pillar 2: Regional Cooperation to Resilience and Services Strengthen Resilience Objective: The main objective of this pillar is to Objective: The main objective of this pillar is to strengthen the capacity of national/sub-basin strengthen disaster preparedness and climate institutions to manage hydro-meteorological resilience through cross-border/regional dialogue, hazards (e.g. flooding, drought, GLOFs etc.) and sharing lessons learnt and scaling up ongoing sub- weather based information service delivery. regional collaborative activities. Activities under this pillar include Meteorology, Water Resources, • Regional Capacity Strengthening of Hydromet Institutions- Agriculture, Disaster Risk in collaboration with IMD, India (under discussion). management, and other sector • Sub-Regional Consultations agencies; Regional and Global • Report on Transboundary Flood Early Warning Systems organizations such as the WMO, ICIMOD and research universities (e.g. Columbia University). Strategic Vision/Approach • Main focus is on strengthening community resilience, Funding: Regional Program is not data sharing. Data sharing is a tool for strengthening funded through IDA resources, resilience, not the goal Bank Budget and Trust Funds from • Focus is on strengthening information services and multiple sources (Water Partnership managing trans-boundary weather risks, not on trans- Program, GFDRR, South Asia Water boundary water resources sharing • Starting point is strengthening national level capacity; Initiative, Climate Investment Funds; regional cooperation is important next step EU Trust Funds, Japan-GFDRR Trust • Understanding needs, incentives and building trust with Funds). It includes fully IDA funded counterparts in each country to set the stage for regional and also trust funded operations dialogue and activities. • Engage not just with water agencies or disaster management agencies but broaden engagement to include Implementation: The South Asia national weather agencies and user sectors such as agriculture and aviation. Regional Hydromet Services and Resilience Program is being managed by the DRM and Climate team, South Asia, GSURR. Activities Balancing Priorities are closely coordinated with • Partnership: Managing the dialogue so that relevant colleagues in the Water, Agriculture stakeholders are briefed and Environment GPs, GFDRR and • Demand Driven: Country Focus within Country Partnership CCSA. For more information, please Strategies of participating countries • Ownership: All national level activities based on requests contact: Poonam Pillai at ppillai@ from participating countries worldbank.org or Erika Vargas at Partners: Key government partners include Departments of evargas@worldbank.org. South Asia: Program Brief