34855 @ @_áßþa@ñëSq@åàØm@åíc Where Is the Wealth of Nations?: Measuring Capital for the 21st century Copyright©2006 by The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank This work was originally published bye the World Bank in English as Where is the Wealth of Nations?: Measuring Capital for the 21st Century in 2005. This Arabic translation was arranged by The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research (ECSSR). The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research is responsible for the quality of the translation. In Case of any discrepancies, the original language will govern. ?: ,.2005 . , . , . ,. , 2008 © 2008 ISBN 978-9948-00-981-8 ISBN 978-9948-00-982-5 : 4567 : . +9712-4044541 : +9712-4044542 : E-mail: pubdis@ecssr.ae Website: http://www.ecssr.ae í{{{éréi]{j÷] F 0.7264­ 0.8814 0.1697 0.7595­ 0.0445 1 = 0.0116 0.7066 0.0293­ 0.9835 0.0209 0.6485 0.1047 0.2161 0.0606 0.6634 0.3102 2.7943 0.6574 3.2791 0.4433 1.9740 2.0414 0.6471 1.0787 1.7723 t 0.0921 0.1284 0.0507 0.0061 0.0560 R2 77 73 73 68 53 0.0066 0.0016 0.0522 0.5198 0.0821 Pr > F 1.1451­ 0.0542­ 1.0555­ 2.3125­ 0.8823­ 1 = 0.0568 0.9882 0.0580 0.7815 0.0131 1.2553 0.0677 0.8532 0.0483 1.2803 2.3175 4.9187 2.3469 4.2716 0.4654 4.9943 2.1915 3.4246 1.4442 4.5524 t 0.2391 0.2000 0.2547 0.1471 0.2811 R2 77 73 73 68 53 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0010 0.0000 Pr > F 115 ? 0.0578­ 1.1781­ 1.0019 0.5808­ 0.9780 1 = 0.1249 0.5221 0.1117 0.3599 0.1061 0.4663 0.1200 0.5741 0.1337 0.7757 6.1294 5.1265 5.2683 3.7425 5.0553 4.0371 5.0664 3.2489 5.1418 3.8801 t 0.3194 0.2030 0.2352 0.1772 0.2785 R2 56 55 53 49 39 0.0000 0.0004 0.0002 0.0021 0.0004 Pr > F 4.6100­ 6.5358­ 4.5343­ 2.3613­ 1.0937­ 1 = . : 1,predictor .,1 ,(1­6); (3­6)(1­6) ., ,;(3­6) . (2 ­ 6) () 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 0.294 0.267 0.360 0.320 0.246 0.241 0.167 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.266 0.209 0.338 0.275 0.250 0.226 0.231 0.167 0.250 0.167 0.500 0.500 116 0.218 0.154 0.293 0.226 0.200 0.188 0.378 0.407 0.412 0.231 0.400 0.429 0.056 0.043 0.077 0.037 0.080 0.043 0.543 0.600 0.452 0.464 0.615 0.611 . : 4(2­6) ,, , . : ; · ; , . , ; . , · ) ,.( . · , . 117 ? .­­ ., -- . : , . · ; · . . ­ ­ · ,; ), ),( , ,( ;) .([Pritchett 2000] ., , .­­ 118 , ,(Ferreira and Vincent 2005) ,(Ferreira and others 2003) -,.(Pritchett 1996) . , - ,1979 -. (. and others 2003) .1981 - Ferreira ; ;--,. ,, ( ) . , ; Ferreira and ) ,(Ferreira and Vincent 2005) -.(others 2003 ,.:,- ,, 119 ? ­­ . . ; , . . , ) 22 , .( 29 ­­ . 38 ­, ; . ­ . ­ .­ , 120 121 : , :;, ?; . . ; ,,; ,, . ; --; .-- ;, ; , . ; , ,; . 123 ? , . . (1-7) / . : , . , ;,; 124 : . ;; . , ,; (1-7) . , . (1-7) ( ) 1995-1960 4.81 3.19 2.66 2.68 1.89 2.24 2.11 3.49 4.01 3.76 3.82 2.69 2.35 1.35 0.35 0.17- 0.67- 0.99- 0.50- 0.14 0.42 0.99 0.31 0.43 0.85 0.44 0.55 0.60 2.68 1.54 1.33 1.31 0.80 0.57 0.76 .Jorgensenand Yip 2001 : 125 ? (1-7) . (1-7) , (Behrman and Taubman, 1982, 474). .«»: ,, . . . , . (Becker 1964)(Schultz 1961), .; (Schultz 1988) . , . 126 : 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 ,2005.(Barro : and Lee 2000) -- , ,;(Caselli 2003) );; .( , . ,(Barro and Lee 2000) () , .() . , , , : ; 127 ? ,.... . ; , (Psacharopoulos . .and Patrinos 2004) . . - . - . . , 11.2 15.7 21.3 11.3 12.9 18.8 9.5 10.3 13.4 10.8 13.1 18.9 .Psacharopoulos and Patrinos 2004 : 128 : ; -(Bjorklund and Kjellstrom 2002) - . . , ,; . , . , . - - - ., ,. . . . . ; 129 ? ; ,. . ; . . .;, ,; , . ,(Kaufmann, Kraay, and Mastruzzi 2005), : · · · · · · , . . , 130 : . - - (),Paldam and Svendsen . " " , , , .(2-7) 1 . (2-7) 1.000 1.000 0.397 1.000 0.675 0.309 1.000 0.868 0.506 0.482 1.000 0.878 0.807 0.450 0.240 1.000 0.868 0.945 0.908 0.560 0.514 1.000 0.975 0.865 0.965 0.892 0.595 0.517 (Kaufmann, .()Paldam and Svendsen : .Kraay, and Mastruzzi, 2005) , , /, : - . 131 ? R = ASs FF LL (1-7) S,A,R )L,F, i .(1001 s ,; .1R (dummy)"" . (3-7) , , 0.2162 0.53 0.0472 0.12 0.3676 0.83 0.4175 2.54- 0.2911 1.90- 0.2693 1.55- 1.6005 7.24 . : :.0.89:R.79:..:: . . - (3-7) - . 89 132 : ()2 1., .0.53 . 0.83 1 1 ,; . ; . -, :;- , . - - .; ,- : R R X = X (2 - 7) X 133 ? , X XR.XR . (4 -7) . (4-7) , ( ) 29 111 838 27 362 1,721 110 481 2,398 306 2,973 16,430 . : , 838 - .- , .(World Bank 2005) 51 ; , . -.- ,( 100 1 ) 134 : ., ,(4-7) ,. (1-7). --(4-7).A . , - : R =R R R SS +F F +LL + Z (3 -7) ,, ,Z,., ,, - L F S . Z - ,Z .(2-7) .57--; ,36; . 7 135 ? -- ; ,, . . (3-7) (5-7) (2-7) 2000 , %7 , , %36 , %57 : .2980; -- .7() , 18 , ., . 136 : (5-7) ,, () ) ) ) ) ( ( ) ( )( ( ) ( ( 68 51 5 6 63 31 75 47,858 28 39 8 3 51 47 77 39,045 284 41 5 24 47 28 86 36,476 84 44 6 7 57 36 60 23,612 . : 1991 , ,, 14,9 ,.() ,; .( 47) -- , 2075 ; 137 ? .86 (24) . . (5-7) , , , ; ,.10 ,. 25 . , ,(Adams and Page 2003) , . -.- . , ,. .,,; . 138 : , ;-- .; . : .,, ; ,,60, . , 35 , . ; 139 , -- ;(), .-- -- ; . , , -- ,. . -- -- ; , . ,. - -. ,(:), 1.(,); 141 ? , . , . - ,"", : Y t = At K L (1 ­ 8) ;(Y) , (A),(L),(K) . -- --. ; . - - ,Hartwick -- ; .(1995 Hartwick 1977; Hamilton ) . ; ; .,,,: , ,;,neoclassical 142 ,(Stiglitz 1974a, b; Mitra 1978) 2 . ; ,- -. -- .; , .; . , , , -- ; - .,() ,."" . ,--, -- ."" ;nested() 3: - - X = F[X AB(A,B),C] (2 ­ 8) 143 ? :XAB,:CBA,:X ,BA,BA .CXAB ,BA, -- , ;C XAB -. ,(), . ,,,:, (Prywes 1986; Manne and Richels 1992; Chang 1994; .Kemfert 1998; Kemfert and Welsch 2000) ;, (Manne and Richels 1992) , (Kemfert 1998) ,0.4 , , ,(Prywes.01986),.0.5 .5,, ;-- 4: . . , , ,(K) · :,(H) · ,(HE) 144 ;(HR) . ; . , ,:,(E) · 5.[ ] , , ,, , . ,(L) · . , 208 ,2000 " " . ,HE,(World Bank 2005) - -, , E,(Barro and Lee 2000) L HR K . ; . : , . · . · . · 145 ? ; . . . , -- ,, : ,, · , , , , ,. ,; 6.(Kaufmann and others 2005) , · ,(World Bank 2005) , 7.(Beck and others 1999) , , ; ; ,,,, ,. 146 , ,; , ;,;(Greene 2000) (), .(),A ,9367, -, - 8 . ; 9. . ,(1-1-8A) . (HR) , 0.37,EK10. ,. ."" - - ,(2-1-8A).(HE) , 147 ? ,, . ,: . ,() ,; , ,HR ,HE , , -- : ,HE .E , L HE K · .L , E HE K · ,. . ,(4-1-8A)(3-1-8A). [(K,HE,L)/E : ,.(2-1-8A),[(K,E,HE)/L] . . , --.0.5 . , 148 ,. , ,(L) . [(K,HE,L)/E] : , ,(5-1-8A).(2-1-8A),[(K,E,HE)/L] ,, . ,L50,[(K,HE,L)/E] -,L,[(K,E,HE)/L] .,92 - . -- ,. ,:, ,."" :;,L) ;,( , . , 149 ? -;-- .:- , ,, . -; - ; . . , ,; , --. ;. . ,; , , . . 150 (HR) (i ) (1-1- 8A) R R i ( ) . 93 0.9131 0.9216 3.88E-10 1.00* K/HR (1) 78 0.9951 0.9958 2.02 0.48­ K/E (2) ( ) . 93 0.9290 0.9375 (K,HR)/L (1) 13.92 6.79 K/HR 4.33E-10 1.00* (K,HR)/La 70 0.8916 0.9089 (K,HR)/E (2) 1.31 0.78­ K/HR 5.37E-10 1.00* (K,HR)/Ea 70 0.8533 0.87667 (K,E)/HR (3) 0.69 0.65 K/E 3.96E-09 1.00* (K,E)/HRa ( ) . 70 0.1911 0.3435 (K,HR,L)/E (1) 0.70 0.90­ K/HR 0.01 0.97* (K,HR)/La 5.46E-12 1.00* (K,HR,L)/E b 78 0.9951 0.9958 (K,HR,E)/L (2) 0.17 0.13­ K/HR 0.18 0.93* (K,HR)/Ea 6.52E-09 1.00* (K,HR,E)/Lb 70 0.9200 0.9350 (K,E,HR)/L (3) 0.20 0.37* K/E 0.55 0.64­ (K,E)/HRa 1.27E-09 1.00* (K,E,HR)/Lb . : E , :L ,( ) :HR , : :K : . : .. . . . . . 5(*) 151 ? (2-1- 8A) (HR)(i ) R R i ( ) . 81 0.8942 0.9061 2.50E-08 1.00* K/HE (1) ( ) . 81 0.9076 0.9203 (K,HE)/L (1) 0.01 1.01* K/HE 2.23E-10 1.00* (K,HE)/La 67 0.8742 0.8952 (K,HE)/E (2) 0.12 1.65* K/HE 6.76E-11 1.00* (K,HE)/Ea 67 0.7209 0.7674 (K,E)/HE (3) 0.19 0.17 K/E 8.22E-08 1.00* (K,E)/HEa ( ) . 67 0.8081 0.9037 (K,HE,L)/E (1) 0.11 1.78* K/HE 0.02 1.14* (K,HE)/La 2.52E-12 1.00* (K,HE,L)/Eb 67 0.8828 0.9059 (K,HE,E)/L (2) 12.61 8.55­ K/HE 0.17 0.48* (K,HE)/Ea 4.60E-11 1.00* (K,HE,E)/Lb 67 0.8831 0.9062 (K,E,HE)/L (3) 0.37 1.57* K/E 0.02 0.92* (K,E)/HEa 6.41E-11 1.00* (K,E,HE)/Lb . : . :E , :L , :HE. : .. . , : K: . 10 (**) , 5 (*) . . 152 (3-1- 8A) [(K,HE,L)/E] t 4.53 0.10 0.47 4.25 0.12 0.51 0.28 0.04 0.01 0.28 ­ 0.02 0.01 ­ 0.40 0.10 0.04 0.39 0.07 0.03 0.73 ­ 0.10 0.07 ­ 0.17 0.09 0.01 . : (4-1- 8A) [(K,E,HE)/L] t 5.27 0.09 0.50 4.83 0.11 0.51 0.45 0.03 0.02 0.44 ­ 0.02 0.01­ 0.62 0.09 0.06 0.37 0.07 0.03 0.86 ­ 0.09 0.08 ­ 0.24 ­ 0.08 0.02 ­ . : 153 ? (5-1- 8A) , %92 %75 %50 %20 * $4,297.16 $5,774.25 $7,019.27 $8,068.84 $8,638.10 (K,HE,L)/E (%50­) (%33­) (%19­) (%7­) ** $4,455.06 $6,147.62 $7,477.97 $8,540.27 $9,096.20 (K,E,HE)/L (%51­) (%32­) (%18­) (%6­) ** . : . * : . ** .67 = 154 : .1 :(H) ,(K) . Y = A aK- + bH - ( )-1/ (1 ­ A) :(E) ,(K) . Y = A aK- + bE- ( ) -1/ (2 ­ A) :b a , :A , : Y .: , )1- . =(1/[1+]) :( ) ,1- --, >-1.([Prywes 1986] . )--A , A . ( : "" A = e1TOPEN+2PCREDIT+3VA+4PIV+5GE+6RB+7RL+8CC (3 ­ A) . A =1TOPEN+2PCREDIT+3VA+4PIV+5GE+6RB+7RL+8CC (4 ­ A) . . 155 ? PCREDIT,TOPEN :GE , :PIV , :VA , . :CC , :RL , :RB , ;2.52.5- . .2 : :(L) XKH , H K . Y1= A1a1b K-a1+ b1H-a1 -1 /1 1- 1/a1 1 (5-A) 1 +1- a1L- (E): XKH , H K . -1/ Y ( ( b2 H ) -a2) 2 2 ( ) 2 2=A2a2 b2 K -a2 + 1- /a2 + 1- a E- 2 (6-A) :(H) XKE , E K . Y = ( -a3+ 1 - ( ) )3 + 1 - ( ) 3-1/ 3 3 A a b K 3 3 3 b E -a3 /a3 - 3 a H 3 (7-A) . i i .3 : Y4 = A4a4b4 (C K ( :XKHL E , L H K .- ) 4/a4 4/ 4 1-4 4 -a4+1-C4)H-a4 +(1-b4)L-4 +(1-a4)E-4 (8 A) :XKHE L , E H P 156 Y5 = A5a5b5 1-5 (c K ( )H ) 5/a5 5/+(1-a5)L-5 5 -a5+ 1-C5 -a5 +(1-b5)E-5 5 (9 A) - :XKEH L , H E K . Y6=A6a6b6 1-6 (C K ( )E ) 6 -a6+1-C6 -a66/a6+(1-b6)H-6 +(1-a6)L6 6/6 -6 (10 A) - .