Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan (P155253) Corridor Improvements Pre-Feasibility Study 19 November, 2018 Prepared by: Prepared for: e.Gen Consultants Ltd., Bangladesh in association with Integrated Transport Planning Ltd, United Kingdom Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Contents 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 2 Rationale for corridor selection ....................................................................................................... 2 2.1 Corridor options ........................................................................................................................... 2 2.2 Evaluation methodology ............................................................................................................ 16 3 Corridor Approach Definition ........................................................................................................ 19 3.2 Defining a Corridor Improvement Strategy ............................................................................... 25 3.3 Developing the Public Transport hierarchy ............................................................................... 26 3.4 Potential for phased introduction ............................................................................................. 27 4 Corridor Improvements ................................................................................................................. 30 4.1 Dedicated running lanes ............................................................................................................ 30 4.2 Junction improvements ............................................................................................................. 38 4.3 Bus stops/stations...................................................................................................................... 41 4.4 Vehicles ...................................................................................................................................... 43 4.5 Service plan ................................................................................................................................ 44 4.6 Arrangements for routes joining the BRT corridor .................................................................... 50 4.7 Bus priority measures for direct services .................................................................................. 50 4.8 Revenue collection..................................................................................................................... 51 4.9 ITS............................................................................................................................................... 51 4.10 Pedestrian facilities .................................................................................................................... 52 4.11 Terminals and interchanges ....................................................................................................... 54 4.12 Depots ........................................................................................................................................ 58 4.13 Major civil works ........................................................................................................................ 60 4.14 Institutional arrangements ........................................................................................................ 61 4.15 Bus Sector Reform ..................................................................................................................... 64 4.16 Branding ..................................................................................................................................... 65 4.17 Parking management ................................................................................................................. 65 4.18 Other design issues .................................................................................................................... 66 4.19 Freight improvements ............................................................................................................... 67 5 Modelled Impacts and Forecast Patronage ................................................................................... 68 5.1 Form of model ........................................................................................................................... 68 5.2 Impact on network..................................................................................................................... 69 5.3 Forecast patronage .................................................................................................................... 75 5.4 Modelling summary ................................................................................................................... 80 6 Capital and Operational Costs ....................................................................................................... 81 6.1 Capital cost................................................................................................................................. 81 6.2 Operating cost............................................................................................................................ 82 6.3 Financial evaluation ................................................................................................................... 83 Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page i Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 7 Economic Appraisal ....................................................................................................................... 87 7.1 Public Transport Consumer benefit ........................................................................................... 88 7.2 Public Transport Producer benefit ............................................................................................. 88 7.3 External benefits ........................................................................................................................ 89 7.4 Project costs ............................................................................................................................... 90 7.5 Net economic benefits ............................................................................................................... 90 7.6 Sensitivity analysis ..................................................................................................................... 92 8 Social Impact Assessment .............................................................................................................. 93 8.1 Impacts on commuters .............................................................................................................. 93 8.2 Provision of transport supportive of women............................................................................. 94 8.3 Impacts on land and settlements along the corridor ................................................................ 97 8.4 Public transport regulations ...................................................................................................... 98 8.5 Impacts on public transport operations .................................................................................... 99 8.6 Addressing economic dislocation ............................................................................................ 101 9 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 103 Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page ii Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan List of Figures Figure 2-1: Identified corridors .................................................................................................................... 2 Figure 2-2: Green corridor (Kalurghat to Airport with New Market spur) .................................................. 3 Figure 2-3: Current Cross Section: Kamal Atartuk between VIP Road and Sea Beach Road. ...................... 4 Figure 2-4: Current Cross Section: M.A. Aziz Road between Katgar Junction and KEPZ Junction. .............. 5 Figure 2-5: Current Cross Section: M.A. Aziz Road ...................................................................................... 6 Figure 2-6: Current Cross Section: Tiger Pass Road ..................................................................................... 7 Figure 2-7: Current Cross Section: CDA Avenue .......................................................................................... 8 Figure 2-8: Current Cross Section: Chittagong – Cox’s Bazar Highway (Arkan Road) .................................. 9 Figure 2-9: Current Cross Section: Chittagong – Cox’s Bazar Highway (Arkan Road) ................................ 10 Figure 2-10: Blue corridor (Alongkar Mor to Shaheed Boshirussaman Sq) ............................................... 12 Figure 2-11: Red corridor (Baluchara to New Market) .............................................................................. 14 Figure 3-1: Preferred green corridor ......................................................................................................... 19 Figure 3-2: Corridor opportunities and constraints – southern section (1) .............................................. 20 Figure 3-3: Corridor opportunities and constraints – southern section (2) .............................................. 21 Figure 3-4: Corridor opportunities and constraints – southern section .................................................... 22 Figure 3-5: Corridor opportunities and constraints – northern section .................................................... 23 Figure 3-6: Northern elevated highway sections along the green corridor .............................................. 24 Figure 3-7: Southern elevated highway sections along the green corridor .............................................. 24 Figure 3-8: Transport hierarchy ................................................................................................................. 25 Figure 4-1: Cross-section of BRT running way, north of No. 2 Gate on CDA Avenue ................................ 32 Figure 4-2: Cross-section of a median BRT station south of No. 2. Gate on CDA Avenue......................... 33 Figure 4-3: Cross-section of asymmetric BRT station suitable for Arkan Road to Kalurghat .................... 34 Figure 4-4: Plan of an asymmetric BRT station suitable for Arkan Road to Kalurghat .............................. 35 Figure 4-5: Cross-section of BRT running way: Arakan Road to Kalurghat ................................................ 36 Figure 4-6: Plan of a BRT station and junction at No. 2 Gate on CDA Avenue .......................................... 39 Figure 4-7: Location of signalized junctions along BRT route .................................................................... 40 Figure 4-8: BRT stop locations ................................................................................................................... 42 Figure 4-9: Service Plan and Indicative Station Locations ......................................................................... 46 Figure 4-10: BRT Network Plan 2025 ......................................................................................................... 48 Figure 4-11: BRT Network Plan 2030 ......................................................................................................... 49 Figure 4-12 Buzz Console System. ............................................................................................................. 50 Figure 4-13 Example of Bus Priority Lane Markings .................................................................................. 51 Figure 4-14: Lack of footpath on CDA Avenue ........................................................................................... 53 Figure 4-15: Pedestrian Crossing facility with BRT in Yichang China....................................................... 53 Figure 4-16: Bahaddarhat Terminal: Poor Design & Facilities ................................................................. 54 Figure 4-17: Bahaddarhat Terminal: Poor Access Arrangements ............................................................ 55 Figure 4-18: Location of terminals required in phase 2 ............................................................................. 57 Figure 4-19: Search areas for depot sites .................................................................................................. 59 Figure 4-20: Railway crossings that require upgrade ................................................................................ 61 Figure 5-1: Impact of the Public transport Improvements on Car Speeds .............................................. 69 Figure 5-2: Impact of the Do-Something scenario on bus speed, PM peak hour (2025) ........................ 71 Figure 5-3: Impact of the Do-Something scenario on bus speed, PM peak hour (2030) ........................ 72 Figure 5-4: Impact of the Do-Something scenario on car speed, PM peak hour (2025) ......................... 73 Figure 5-5: Average Bus Speed over time................................................................................................. 74 Figure 5-6: Impact of Do-Something scenario upon average vehicle speed and vehicle-kms ............... 74 Figure 5-7: PM peak-hour bus and PT patronage (2025) ......................................................................... 77 Figure 5-8: PM peak-hour bus and PT patronage (2030) ......................................................................... 78 Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page iii Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 5-9: Patronage Growth Across Three Primary Corridors .............................................................. 79 Figure 5-10: Transport Mode Share with and Without Scheme .............................................................. 79 Figure 7-1: Percentage of Total PV benefits (US$1,934 million) ............................................................... 90 Figure 7-2: Economic Appraisal Indicators (2019 – 2040) ......................................................................... 90 Figure 7-3: Cumulative Discounted Benefits and Costs (2019-2040) ........................................................ 91 Figure 8-1: Main mode of transport choices based on gender ................................................................. 94 Figure 8-2: Women are usually accompanied with when traveling .......................................................... 95 Figure 8-3: Travel segregation between two genders based on activities ................................................ 95 Figure 8-4: The challenges in the use of public transport by women ....................................................... 96 Figure 8-5: shows the reasons why women do not prefer the use of public transport ............................ 96 Figure 8-6: Proposed BRT corridors alongside the household income level ............................................. 98 List of Tables Table 2-1: Summary of key factors - Green corridor ................................................................................. 11 Table 2-2: Summary of key factors - Blue corridor .................................................................................... 13 Table 2-3: Summary of key factors - Red corridor ..................................................................................... 16 Table 2-4: Summary of the high level assessment of predefined corridors .............................................. 17 Table 4-1: Service Plan (2025) ................................................................................................................... 47 Table 4-2: Service Plan (2030) ................................................................................................................... 47 Table 4-3: Road map for the Development of the PTA....................................................................... 62 Table 4-4: Staffing of the PTA ............................................................................................................. 63 Table 5-1: Forecast daily public transport trips, boardings and trip stages .............................................. 75 Table 5-2: Forecast daily boardings and PVR of Incorporated Bus Routes................................................ 76 Table 6-1: Capital Costs.............................................................................................................................. 81 Table 6-2: Operating Cost Assumptions ................................................................................................... 82 Table 6-3: Annual Operating Cost-Revenue-Profit by Route ..................................................................... 85 Table 6-4: Operating Cost-Revenue-Profit by Route 2017 ........................................................................ 86 Table 7-1: Journey time savings for PT users ............................................................................................. 88 Table 7-2: Economic Appraisal Indicators (2019 – 2040) - Sensitivity Analysis ......................................... 92 Table 8-1: Summary of potential social impacts of the proposal ............................................................ 101 Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page iv Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Document / Report Control Form Document Name: Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Project Name: Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Masterplan Project Number: World Bank Project 155253 Version Number: 1 Revision History Version Number Date Prepared by Reviewed by Approved for Issue by 1 (Prelim Draft) 23/12/2017 CB/JSa/HK DB-J SA 2 Final 31/08/2018 CB/JSa/HK DB-J SA 3 Final 19/11/2018 CB/JSa/HK DB-J SA Issue Register Distribution List Date Issued Number of Copies World Bank 20/03/2018 Electronic e-Gen Company Details 14-A Chandrashila Suvastu Tower, 69/1 Bir Uttam Qazi Nuruzzaman Road, Dhaka 1205, Bangladesh Tel: +880 2 9641256-9 Fax: +880 2 9641260-1 Email: info@egenconsultants.com Website: www.egenconsultants.com Notice This report has been prepared for World Bank in accordance with the terms and conditions of appointment. Neither e-Gen Consultants nor Integrated Transport Planning Ltd accept any responsibility for any use of or reliance on the contents of this report by any third party Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page v Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 1 Introduction This Pre-Feasibility Study Report is the sixth deliverable under the Chittagong Urban Transport Master Plan project conducted for the World Bank coordinated by the Chittagong Development Authority. This study presents a corridor improvement project which comprises a priority BRT route for Chittagong, whose alignment is considered the most pertinent to support the economic, social and environmental development of the city and is practically feasible. This study recommends that the corridor improvement project is undertaken in two phases: • Phase 1 (2019 – 2022): Feasibility study and detailed design, enact institutional reforms required to implement and operate BRT, preparatory infrastructure work for the BRT including improvements to junctions, footpaths and terminals. • Phase 2 (2023 – 2025): Construction of BRT running lanes, bus priority, stations, procurement and operation of new vehicles and new service plan These phases integrate with the recommendations presented in the Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan which recommends improvements for the short (2019 – 2022), medium (2023 – 2025) and long term (2026 – 2030). The concept definition presented in chapter 4 details the actions that should be undertaken in phase 1 (2019-2022) and phase 2 (2023 – 2025) to establish the BRT corridor. The service plan (chapter 4), and passenger forecasting (chapter 5) extend as far as 2030. The financial appraisal (chapter 6) also extends up to 2030. While the economic analysis (chapter 7) extends to 2040. This report builds upon the Strategic Urban Transport Masterplan which has been developed through consultation with key local government units, the Ministry of Housing and Public Works and local citizens. The report also uses the data and transport model which are specified in Deliverable 4. This report also relates to Deliverable 3: Investment Options Report which presents an early scoping exercise for mass transit lines in Chittagong. This Pre-Feasibility Study is built up from a strategic assessment approach and as such concentrates upon defining appropriate concept to a sufficient depth to define impacts and benefits in a general sense giving quantification wherever possible. Whilst it seeks to assert that a scheme is feasible its full definition and assessment will require more thorough feasibility study. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 1 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 2 Rationale for corridor selection 2.1 Corridor options The Deliverable No 3, Investment options, considered a number of corridors that could be suitable for the implementation of non-motorised transit/bus priority based on analysis of the following data. Their identification was based upon: • Public transport passenger demand • Current public transport routes served • Roadway width • Current bus speeds • Trip generators/attractors • Traffic conditions assessment This Chapter develops that initial assessment concentrating upon three indicative corridors termed Green corridor; blue corridor; and red corridor. Each of these routes were divided into character areas, that is, where the character of the route differs along its length. The corridors are illustrated in Figure 2-1 below. Figure 2-1: Identified corridors Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 2 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan The following roads were included as part of the corridor options: • Chittagong-Cox's Bazar Highway (Green corridor) • CDA Avenue (Green corridor) • M.A. Aziz Road (Green corridor) • Dhaka Trunk Road (Blue corridor) • Road to Oxygen (Red corridor) • Nabab Siragj Road (Red corridor) Whilst it is feasible, in terms of the overall transport master plan, that all corridors would be improved, the purpose of this report is to identify a priority corridor for short and medium term improvement. Each corridor is described separately below. 2.1.1 Green corridor (Kalurghat to Airport, with New Market spur) The green corridor is illustrated in Figure 2-2 below. Figure 2-2: Green corridor (Kalurghat to Airport with New Market spur) Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 3 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan This corridor consists of seven discrete character areas as follows: 2.1.1.1 Sea Beach Road/Kamal Ataturk Avenue/N Awalia Road between Golden Beach Road and the Airport (G1) The following provides a high-level overview for character area G1: • Estimated length: 4.3 km. • Population density: Population density within the 600m buffer is approximately 2,200 persons per km2. • Employment centres: There are no major employment centres located in close proximity to this specific part of the corridor. • Highest PT passenger demand (2025, no BRT scenario): Estimated PM peak bus passenger demand is 1,955 passengers per hour per direction of travel. • Average public transport speed (2017): No data available. • Physical characteristics: This part of the corridor provides a traffic connection to the Airport with its narrowest cross section (14.6 mts) found along N Awalia Road near Butterfly Park, where the carriageway is able to accommodate two traffic lanes in each direction of travel (7.0 mts wide each direction of travel) and it has a 0.5 mt median. The average cross section width is approximately 17.3 mts. Whilst the width of cross sections generally widens along Kamal Ataturk Avenue and Sea Beach Road (Max width of 19.3 mts), this is largely due to the presence of a more generous median strip with trees (approximately 5.0 mts wide). There are generally no footways available along either side of this predefined section. • Access to key facilities: There were no academic, medical, religious and shopping facilities identified. • Length liable to flood: 1.2 km of this section were identified at potentially higher risk of flooding during normal monsoon periods. The Figure 2-3 below illustrates a current cross section along this part of the corridor. Figure 2-3: Current Cross Section: Kamal Atartuk between VIP Road and Sea Beach Road. 2.1.1.2 M.A. Aziz Road/Sea Beach Road between Golden Beach Road and Cement Crossing (G2) The following provides a high level overview for character area G2: • Estimated length: 3.4 km. • Population density: Population density within the 600m buffer is approximately 7,765 persons per km2. • Employment centres: Patenga Industrial Area is located alongside this section as well as many logistic centres. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 4 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan • Highest PT passenger demand (2025, no BRT scenario): Estimated PM peak bus passenger demand is 5,271 passengers per hour per direction of travel. • Average public transport speed (2017): No data available. • Physical characteristics: This part of the corridor offers largely generous cross sections with widths varying between 22mts and 36 mts. The average cross section width is approximately 32.2 mts. Existing carriageway is able to accommodate up to three traffic lanes in each direction of travel with the presence of a minimal median strip (0.5 mts wide) to accommodate street lighting. Inconsistent narrow footways are noted to serve retail facilities. Unpaved servicing/parking areas adjacent to the main carriageway were found throughout M.A. Aziz Road. • Access to key facilities: This part of the corridor serves approximately three key facilities. • Length liable to flood: 0.9 km of this section were identified at potentially higher risk of flooding during normal monsoon periods. The Figure 2-4 below illustrates a typical cross section along this part of the corridor. Refer to Cross Sections 5 to 8 for further details. Figure 2-4: Current Cross Section: M.A. Aziz Road between Katgar Junction and KEPZ Junction. 2.1.1.3 M.A. Aziz Road/Mooring Road/Sheikh Mujib Road/CDA Avenue between Cement Crossing and Tiger Pass (G3) The following provides a high level overview for character area G3: • Estimated length: 8.6 km. • Population density: Population density within the 600m buffer is approximately 26,209 persons per km2. • Employment centres: Three major employment centres were identified in vicinity of this highway segment, namely, Patenga Industrial Area, Export Processing Zone and Chittagong Port Authority. • Highest PT passenger demand (2025, no BRT scenario): Estimated PM peak bus passenger demand is 14,269 passengers per hour per direction of travel. • Average public transport speed (2017): Current average public transport speed along this part of the corridor is estimated to be 13.4 kph. • Physical characteristics: This part of the corridor offers two, three and four traffic-lane configurations in each direction of travel. North of the Salt Gola Crossing there is an elevated highway (Port Link Flyover) that runs alongside M.A. Aziz Road. Mooring Road is noted to have some of the narrowest cross sections (16.4 mts) with two lanes of traffic in each direction near the Port Link junction with no median. The average cross section width is approximately 29.0 mts. Articulated vehicles and trucks are typically observed to stop/park on nearside lanes on the approaches to different port gates along Mooring Road. Mooring Road mostly offers narrow footways. Sheikh Mujib Road is noted to have generous cross Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 5 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan sections (29.4-32.9 mts) with road infrastructure largely catering for road traffic. There are narrow median strips (0.5-0.6mts) with trees. North of Badamtoli, Sheikh Mujib Road features up to four lanes of traffic in each direction. Carriageway width reduces across the Dewanhat Overbridge, offering two traffic lanes (7.6 mts wide combined) in each direction of travel with 2.2mt wide footways on both sides of the bridge. • Access to key facilities: This part of the corridor serves approximately 5 facilities, including academic, medical, religious and shopping facilities. • Length liable to flood: 1.5 km of this section were identified at potentially higher risk of flooding during normal monsoon periods. The Figure 2-5 below illustrates typical cross sections along this part of the corridor. Refer to Cross Sections 9 to 21 for further details. Figure 2-5: Current Cross Section: M.A. Aziz Road Cross section 11 M. A Aziz Road between Steel Mill Bazar and CEPZ Cross section 13 M. A Aziz Road between Salt Gola Crossing and Customs Junction Cross section 20 over bridge between Salt Gola Crossing and Customs Junction Cross section 15 Sheikh Mujib Road between Badamtoli and Chowmuhuni Junction Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 6 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 2.1.1.4 Tiger Pass Road/Station Road between Tiger Pass and New Market Roundabout (G4) The following provides a high level overview for character area G4: • Estimated length: 2.6 km. • Population density: Population density within the 600m buffer is approximately 35,485 persons per km2. • Employment centres: A large number of commercial and service sector employment sites are located in the vicinity of New Market. • Highest PT passenger demand (2025, no BRT scenario): Estimated PM peak bus passenger demand is 9,743 passengers per hour per direction of travel. • Average public transport speed (2017): Current average public transport speed along this part of the corridor is estimated to be 9.6 kph. • Physical characteristics: This road link between Tiger Pass and the New Market Roundabout offers two lanes of traffic in each direction of travel. Each lane is approximately 3.5 mts. The average cross section width is approximately 27.0 mts. There is a sloped central reservation with young and mature trees (approximately 5.5mts wide) as well as relatively comfortable footways on both sides of the carriageway. Footway widths vary between 2.5 and 3.0 mts. Wider carriageways able to accommodate up to three vehicles were noted along Station Road near Chittagong Central. • Access to key facilities: This part of the corridor serves approximately 51 facilities, including academic, medical, religious and shopping facilities. • Length liable to flood: 0.5 km of this section were identified at potentially higher risk of flooding during normal monsoon periods. The Figure 2-6 below illustrates two typical cross sections along this part of the corridor. Figure 2-6: Current Cross Section: Tiger Pass Road Cross section 34 Tiger Pass Road between Tiger Pass Junction and CRB Junction Cross section 35 Tiger Pass Road between CRB Junction and Kadamtoli Junction Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 7 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan It should be noted that for the purpose of the concept definition (See page 19) this character area was split into two sub-sections, namely, character area G4a and G4b that denote the observed characteristics along the Tiger Pass Road and Station Road respectively. 2.1.1.5 CDA Avenue between Tiger Pass and Chittagong-Cox's Bazar Highway (G5) The following provides a high level overview for character area G5: • Estimated length: 5.2 km. • Population density: Population density within the 600m buffer is approximately 30,698 persons per km2. • Employment centres: The south end of the Nasirabad / Sholoshahar Industrial Area was identified in close proximity to this section. • Highest PT passenger demand (2025, no BRT scenario): Estimated PM peak bus passenger demand is 9,226 passengers per hour per direction of travel. • Average public transport speed (2017): Current average public transport speed along this part of the corridor is estimated to be 10.1 kph. • Physical characteristics: This road link widens from a single-level 25.5mt wide cross section near tiger Pass Hill to a 33.5mt wide multi-level cross section. The average cross section width is approximately 37.3 mts. A four-lane elevated highway (two lanes in each direction of travel) along the CDA Avenue plus multiple traffic lanes under the elevated highway are noted to extend from Lalkhan Bazar Roundabout to the approach to Bahaddarhat Roundabout. Two traffic lanes (5.6mt wide) enable northbound traffic to access the traffic lanes under the section of elevated highway. Throughout the entire section of elevated highway, cross section widths under the elevated highway vary between 37mts to 43.4mts. Available road space is notably generous under the elevated highway with cross sections between the G.E.C Roundabout and Sholoshohor 2 No. Gate carrying up to four lanes of traffic in each direction of traffic with widths of footways on both sides of the road varying between 2.5mts and 3.5mts. • Access to key facilities: This part of the corridor serves approximately 84 facilities, including academic, medical, religious and shopping facilities. • Length liable to flood: 1.8 km of this section were identified at potentially higher risk of flooding during normal monsoon periods. The Figure 2-7 below illustrates typical cross sections along this part of the corridor. Refer to Cross Sections 22 and 28 for further details. Figure 2-7: Current Cross Section: CDA Avenue Cross section 22 CDA Avenue between Tiger Pass Junction and Lalkhan Bazar Roundabout Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 8 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Cross section 24 CDA Avenue between CWASA Square and G.E.C Roundabout 2.1.1.6 Chittagong-Cox's Bazar Highway between CDA Avenue and Bahir Signal (G6) The following provides a high level overview for character area G6: • Estimated length: 3.6 km. • Population density: Population density within the 600m buffer is approximately 14,967 persons per km2. • Employment centres: Two major employment centres were identified in close proximity to this section, namely, Kalurghat Noxious Zone and Kalurghat Industrial Area. • Highest PT passenger demand (2025, no BRT scenario): Estimated PM peak bus passenger demand is 3,971 passengers per hour per direction of travel. • Average public transport speed (2017): Current average public transport speed along this part of the corridor is estimated to be 13.1 kph. • Physical characteristics: Cross section widths along this part of the corridor vary between 27.9mts and 33.4mts. The average cross section width is approximately 30.5 mts. Various retail facilities are noted alongside the main carriageway with swales and intermittent footways. Narrow built medians are also typically observed. These medians rise approximately half a metre over the carriageway to accommodate advertising columns and trees, leaving gaps for vehicles at junctions and occasionally for pedestrians to cross the road. • Access to key facilities: This part of the corridor serves approximately 190 facilities, including academic, medical, religious and shopping facilities. • Length liable to flood: 0.9 km of this section were identified at potentially higher risk of flooding during normal monsoon periods. The Figure 2-8 below illustrates typical cross sections along this part of the corridor. Refer to Cross Sections 29 and 31 for further details. Figure 2-8: Current Cross Section: Chittagong – Cox’s Bazar Highway (Arkan Road) Cross section 29 Chittagong - Cox’s Bazar Highway between Bahaddarhat Roundabout and Old Changaon Bazar Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 9 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Cross section 31 Chittagong - Cox’s Bazar Highway between C&B Roundabout and Bahir Signal 2.1.1.7 Chittagong-Cox's Bazar Highway between Bahir Signal and Kalurghat Bridge (G7) The following provides a high level overview for character area G7: • Estimated length: 2.3 km. • Population density: Population density within the 600m buffer is approximately 9,824 persons per km2. • Employment centres: Two major employment centres were identified in close proximity to this section, namely, Kalurghat Noxious Zone and Kalurghat Industrial Area. • Highest PT passenger demand (2025, no BRT scenario): Estimated PM peak bus passenger demand is 2,123 passengers per hour per direction of travel. • Average public transport speed (2017): Current average public transport speed along this part of the corridor is estimated to be 11.2 kph. • Physical characteristics: This road link has relatively uniform cross section widths varying between 27.5mts and 29.5mts. The average cross section width is approximately 28.5 mts. Traffic lane configurations vary between two-one and two-two with ample unpaved servicing/parking areas alongside the main carriageway. Similarly to previous highway segments, these unpaved areas are noted to be used for informal commerce activities by market stalls. Raised medians are also noted with widths varying between 1.0mt and 1.2mts with the presence of trees. • Access to key facilities: This part of the corridor serves approximately 60 facilities, including academic, medical, religious and shopping facilities. • Length liable to flood: 0.0 km of this section were identified at potentially higher risk of flooding during normal monsoon periods. The Figure 2-8 below illustrates two typical cross sections along this part of the corridor. Figure 2-9: Current Cross Section: Chittagong – Cox’s Bazar Highway (Arkan Road) Cross section 32 Chittagong - Cox’s Bazar Highway between Bahir Signal and Kaptai Raster Matha Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 10 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Cross section 33 Chittagong - Cox’s Bazar Highway between Kaptai Raster Matha and Kalurghat Bridge 2.1.1.8 Overview of Green Corridor The Table 2-1 below provides a summary of key factors for the green corridor split by character areas. Table 2-1: Summary of key factors - Green corridor Key Factors Units Character Areas G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 Estimated length Km 4.3 3.4 8.6 2.6 5.2 3.6 2.3 Population density Persons per km2 2,200 7,765 26,209 35,486 30,699 14,968 9,824 Major employment Number 0 1 3 2 1 2 2 centres Highest bus passenger Pax per hour per 1,955 5,271 14,269 9,743 9,226 3,971 2,123 demand (2025) direction of travel Average PT speed Kph No data No data 13.4 9.6 10.1 13.1 11.2 (2017) Number of facilities Number 0 3 5 51 84 190 60 served Length liable to flood Km 1.2 0.9 1.5 0.5 1.8 0.9 0.0 Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 11 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 2.1.2 Blue corridor (Alongkar Mor to Shaheed Boshirussaman Sq) The blue corridor is illustrated in Figure 2-10 below. Figure 2-10: Blue corridor (Alongkar Mor to Shaheed Boshirussaman Sq) The blue corridor consists of two discrete character areas as follows: 2.1.2.1 Dhaka Trunk Road/Dewanhat Overbridge/Kadamtali Road/Station Road between AK Khan to New Market Roundabout (B1) The following provides a high level overview for character area B1: • Estimated length: 6.3 km. • Population density: Population density within the 600m buffer is approximately 33,894 persons per km2. • Employment centres: Fouzderhat Industrial Area is located on one end of this section. • Highest PT passenger demand (2025, no BRT scenario): Estimated PM peak bus passenger demand is 9,964 passengers per hour per direction of travel. • Average public transport speed (2017): Current average public transport speed along this part of the corridor is estimated to be 16.4 kph. • Physical characteristics: This part of the corridor generally offers a total of four lanes and provides a connection between the Fouzderhat Industrial Area with Chittagong Central. The majority of this section of primary highway runs in relative close proximity to and parallel to Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 12 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan the railway line and includes an elevated highway (i.e. Dewanhat Overbridge). Physical characteristics are noted to be slightly more constraint from the Sheikh Mijib/CDA Avenue/Dhaka Trunk Road junction towards Chittagong Central. Issues were observed concerning pavement conditions on the west end of this part of the corridor with the presence of extensive on-street parking (e.g. trucks). Limited footways are available, particularly near Chittagong Central, where encroachment of street traders is a common feature of this highway corridor. • Access to key facilities: This part of the corridor serves approximately 75 facilities, including academic, medical, religious and shopping facilities. • Length liable to flood: 0.5 km of this section were identified at potentially higher risk of flooding during normal monsoon periods. 2.1.2.2 Sadarghat Road/Mariner’s Dr Road/Chaktai Road between New Market Roundabout and Dhaka Chittagong Highway (B2) The following provides a high level overview for character area B2: • Estimated length: 2.8 km. • Population density: Population density within the 600m buffer is approximately 31,612 persons per km2. • Employment centres: There are no major employment centres located in vicinity of this specific section. • Highest PT passenger demand (2025, no BRT scenario): Estimated PM peak bus passenger demand is 9,743 passengers per hour per direction of travel. • Average public transport speed (2017): No data available. • Physical characteristics: This part of the corridor predominantly offers a four-lane carriageway configuration providing a connection between the New Market Roundabout and the Dhaka-Chittagong Highway near the Karnafully Residential Area. A narrow central reservation strip with the presence of young trees is often seen throughout this section. Retail land uses are commonly observed with limited use of footways when these facilities are available. • Access to key facilities: This part of the corridor serves approximately 28 facilities, including academic, medical, religious and shopping facilities. • Length liable to flood: 0.0 km of this section were identified at potentially higher risk of flooding during normal monsoon periods. 2.1.2.3 Overview of Blue Corridor The Table 2-2 below provides a summary of key factors for the blue corridor split by character areas. Table 2-2: Summary of key factors - Blue corridor Key Factors Units Character Areas B1 B2 Estimated length Km 6.3 2.8 Population density Persons per km2 33,894 31,612 Major employment centres Number 1 0 Highest bus passenger demand (2025) Pax per hour per direction of travel 9,964 9,743 Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 13 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Key Factors Units Character Areas B1 B2 Average PT speed (2017) Kph 16.4 No data Number of facilities served Number 75 28 Length liable to flood Km 0.5 0.0 2.1.3 Red corridor (Baluchara to New Market) The red corridor is illustrated in Figure 2-11 below. Figure 2-11: Red corridor (Baluchara to New Market) The red corridor consists of two discrete character areas as follows: 2.1.3.1 Chittagong – Rangamati Khagrachhari Road between Baluchara and CDA Avenue (R1) The following provides a high level overview for character area R1: • Estimated length: 9.3 km. • Population density: Population density within the 600m buffer is approximately 14,953 persons per km2. • Employment centres: One major employment centre was identified in vicinity of this section, namely, the Nasirabad / Sholoshahar Industrial Area. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 14 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan • Highest PT passenger demand (2025, no BRT scenario): Estimated PM peak bus passenger demand is 4,094 passengers per hour per direction of travel. • Average public transport speed (2017): Current average public transport speed along this part of the corridor is estimated to be 7.9 kph. • Physical characteristics: This part of the corridor mainly offers a total of four lanes with raised concrete barriers acting as a central reservation. Narrow cross sections are noted along Rangamati Khagrachhari Road, where the number of lanes reduces to two lanes in both directions. This part of the corridor links the CDA Avenue and the north end of the Nasirabad / Sholoshahar Industrial Area and beyond. Overall, highway conditions near the Oxygen area present more suburban/rural characteristics. Whilst the encroachment of street traders is less noticeable along this part of this corridor, street traders and on-street parking can still be observed. • Access to key facilities: This part of the corridor serves approximately 59 facilities, including academic, medical, religious and shopping facilities. • Length liable to flood: 0.7 km of this section were identified at potentially higher risk of flooding during normal monsoon periods. 2.1.3.2 Mirzapul Road/Panchlaish Road/Nabab SirajUd Daula Road/Andarkilla Road/Abdur Rahman Road/Huseyn Shahhed Suhrawardy Road/Station Road between CDA Avenue and Chittagong Train Station (R2) The following provides a high level overview for character area R2: • Estimated length: 4.3 km. • Population density: Population density within the 600m buffer is approximately 37,618 persons per km2. • Employment centres: There are no major employment centres located in vicinity of this specific section. • Highest PT passenger demand (2025, no BRT scenario): Estimated PM peak bus passenger demand is 6,327 passengers per hour per direction of travel. • Average public transport speed (2017): Current average public transport speed along this part of the corridor is estimated to be 15.5 kph. • Physical characteristics: This part of the corridor generally offers a four lane configuration with the exception of the approach to the CDA Avenue near the Sugandha Area, where five lanes are available. Of the two discrete character areas along the red corridor, this section is noted to generally feature busier conditions along a narrower carriageway. Although footways are generally available on both sides this section, facilities are infrequently used by pedestrians due to the presence of regular obstructions, street traders, etc. Raised medians are also noted with a standard width of approximately 0.5mts. Considerable space constraints are observed along Kapasgola Road. • Access to key facilities: This part of the corridor serves approximately 180 facilities, including academic, medical, religious and shopping facilities. • Length liable to flood: 1.4 km of this section were identified at potentially higher risk of flooding during normal monsoon periods. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 15 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 2.1.3.3 Overview of Red Corridor The Table 2-3 below provides a summary of key factors for the red corridor split by character areas. Table 2-3: Summary of key factors - Red corridor Key Factors Units Character Areas R1 R2 Estimated length Km 9.3 4.3 Population density Persons per km2 14,953 37,618 Major employment centres Number 1 0 Highest bus passenger demand (2025) Pax per hour per direction of travel 4,094 6,327 Average PT speed (2017) Kph 7.9 15.5 Number of facilities served Number 59 180 Length liable to flood Km 0.7 1.4 2.2 Evaluation methodology 2.2.1 Objectives and criteria This evaluation selects a priority corridor for BRT development from the three options presented above. To identify the priority corridor, the following broad criteria are identified: • Potential to provide opportunities for improved accessibility and enhance wellbeing • Potential to reduce travel time and improve journey time reliability • Potential to increase resilience for the future These broad criteria are tested using the following specific measures: Population density Estimates the population density within a 600m buffer for each part of the corridor (Persons/km2). Score of 5 to be given to the part of the corridor with the highest population density. Employment centres Total number of major employment centres accessible through each part of the corridor. Score of 5 to be given to the part of the corridor with the highest number of major employment centres served. Peak bus passenger demand (2025) Estimates the peak bus passenger demand (PM) for each part of the corridor. Score of 5 to be given to the part of the corridor with the highest maximum passenger demand. Potential future increase of speeds Based on current average public transport speeds (2017). The evaluation assumes a section with low bus speeds has a greater potential to benefit from the future implementation of bus priority measures, reducing bus journey times and potentially encouraging a modal shift. Score of 5 to be given to the part of the corridor with the lowest average speed. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 16 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Physical characteristics Qualitative assessment of physical constraints, typical cross sections and road widths where these are available. The evaluation assumes that a more effective allocation of road space can take place when there are less physical constraints. Emphasis is made on the mitigation of negative impacts on general traffic, including non-motorised transport, as well as enabling place-making and improved public realm. Score of 5 is given to the part of the corridor with the widest cross sections and more opportunities to accommodate bus priority measures. Number of facilities served Emphasis on access to key facilities. Estimates the total number of facilities (i.e. Academic, medical, religious and shopping) per km. Facilities are included for each part of the corridor within a 600m buffer. Score of 5 to be given to the part of the corridor with the highest number of facilities per km. Environmental resilience Potential impacts linked to areas of Chittagong regularly flooded. Estimates the length of corridor that might be affected by regular flooding during normal monsoon periods (Chittagong Stormwater Drainage and Flood control Masterplan). Score of 5 to be given to the part of the corridor with the lowest length (i.e. 0.0 km of corridor). A score of 5 would mean the corridor carries the lowest risk of flooding. 2.2.2 Corridor Recommendation Table 2-4 below provides a high level overview of the scores for each of the three corridors against each criteria measure split by character area. Individual character areas that recorded the highest scores are highlighted in green. Table 2-4: Summary of the high level assessment of predefined corridors Character Areas G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 R1 R2 B1 B2 Population density 0 2 3 4 4 2 1 2 5 4 4 Major employment 0 4 5 4 2 4 4 2 0 2 0 Bus passenger demand (2025) 0 2 5 4 3 1 1 1 2 3 3 Potential future increase of speeds 2* 3* 4 4 4 2 3 5 1 1 1* Physical characteristics 0 4 2 1 5 3 2 2** 2** 2** 2** Number of facilities served 0 1 1 4 3 5 4 2 5 2 2 Environmental resilience 1 1 1 4 0 2 4 3 1 4 5 Total Score 3 17 21 25 21 19 19 17 16 18 17 Scores 5 (Better) - 0 (Worse) * Due to existing gaps in the data, these values only provide estimated scores ** Scores are largely based on indicative highway capacity and characteristics, including number of lanes, pavement conditions, on-street parking and road side friction. It should be noted that the scores presented in Table 2-4 have not received any weighting. Based on this appraisal the preferred corridor is defined by six sections placed along the green corridor. The six sections comprise character areas G2, G3, G4, G5, G6 and G7. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 17 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan While the green corridor is identified as the highest priority corridor for development first, the red and blue corridors continue to show high potential to be developed as mass transit routes in the long term. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 18 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 3 Corridor Approach Definition The recommended corridor is illustrated in Figure 3-1 below. Figure 3-1: Preferred green corridor 3.1.1 Existing opportunities and constraints The corridor and its physicality was examined in order to identify both the opportunities for enhancements and the constraints that must be overcome. These are summarised in Figure 3-2 to Figure 3-5 and guide the development of the corridor. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 19 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 3-2: Corridor opportunities and constraints – southern section (1) Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 20 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 3-3: Corridor opportunities and constraints – southern section (2) Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 21 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 3-4: Corridor opportunities and constraints – southern section Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 22 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 3-5: Corridor opportunities and constraints – northern section Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 23 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 3.1.2 Current improvement proposals Based on the latest transport infrastructure plans in Chittagong, it is recognised that the full length of character areas G2, G3 and G5 are expected to offer an elevated highway for through motorised traffic. According to CDA plans, the new section of elevated highway from Lalkhan Bazar to the Airport is expected to be delivered by 2030. Figure 3-6 and Figure 3-7 shows the existing and future sections of the elevated highway along the green corridor. Figure 3-6: Northern elevated highway sections along the green corridor Figure 3-7: Southern elevated highway sections along the green corridor Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 24 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan The presence of existing and future elevated highway sections possesses both design challenges and opportunity in relation to implementing corridor based improvements. Where the elevated highway is currently at design stage it will be necessary for the appointed design engineers to be fully aware of the corridor proposals defined herein in order to mitigate against any purely highway oriented proposals that impact rather than enhance public transport and non-motorised mobility. 3.2 Defining a Corridor Improvement Strategy In developing the corridor improvement proposal, the following are our primary considerations: • Optimising the use of available road reserve • Seeking to improve the overall mobility, and safety, of people over that of vehicles • To offer demonstrable improvement to the economic efficiency and social equity of the city • Provide for integration across all transport modes and with land use change • Be part of the strategic plan for Chittagong As has been demonstrated, the majority of movement within the corridor is accommodated through some form of public transport. This currently offers a low level of service to users and as such does not support the city’s economy, social cohesion and adversely affects the local environment. Improving the operation of public transport is therefore at the forefront of the corridor improvement strategy. Whilst existing public transport modes are plentiful there is little distinction between the markets they serve when identifying levels of service, routeing, licensing and facilities. As such a starting point would be the creation of a public transport hierarchy from which a supportive improvement strategy might be developed. Figure 3-8 shows the transport hierarchy taken from the Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Masterplan. Figure 3-8: Transport hierarchy Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 25 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Existing non motorised transit within the corridor is, consistent with the lack of hierarchy, left to compete for trips wherever it is able to find them. As such, Rickshaws take space within a primary strategic route through the city impacting upon through trips. Addressing this will have benefit to users, corridor operation, those seeking longer distance travel and non users. NMT will play an important role as feeder services on to the BRT. Pedestrians compete within an environment where they are currently treated as low priority. They possess residual space left over from motorised and non motorised traffic, together with the loosely controlled trading that takes place on space that would be rightfully their domain; the sidewalk. Motorised traffic mixes with non motorised and pedestrians in a loosely controlled environment producing conflict and inefficiency. This is most prevalent at junctions which are the main source of road based delay, but also on links where parking impacts upon highway capacity. As such the corridor improvement strategy would consist of: • Regulatory improvements to public transport • Operational improvements to public transport • Physical improvements to support public transport • Traffic management and traffic engineering improvements to support corridor efficiency and effectiveness • Parking management • Side walk improvements • Improved enforcement 3.3 Developing the Public Transport hierarchy The transport mode hierarchy is established in the Chittagong SUTMP and the corridor improvement strategy is an opportunity to establish this hierarchy in the city’s primary transport corridor. The transport hierarchy, Figure 3-8, consists of: 1) Pedestrians – across the city as a whole 25% of trips are made wholly by foot, and most public transport trips begin or end on foot. Facilities for pedestrians should be significantly improved from their current condition in order to benefit all citizens of Chittagong City, but especially the poorest who have no option but to walk. Quality pedestrian access to public transport is required. Excellent pedestrian facilities are also vital for people with mobility impairments. 2) Public transport – Public transport should be the preferred mode for the majority of trips. Prioritizing public transport over any private transport is important in making it an attractive alternative to private transport modes. i. Bus/BRT – large buses on a bus priority/BRT system should form the backbone of Chittagong’s public transport system. The key focus will be upon bus as the most cost-effective and efficient means of mass transport available for a city like Chittagong. ii. Tempo – Tempos should serve feeder routes, connecting narrow residential streets with the large buses/BRT. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 26 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan iii. Human Hauler- Humans haulers should be phased out of central Chittagong – they are considered too large to perform well in narrow residential streets, but too small to effectively carry passengers in great volumes. They could be used for longer-distance feeder services, linking more rural residential areas with the bus priority and BRT systems. 3) Freight – Chittagong’s economic performance relies heavily on freight traffic to and from the Port and CEPZ. Currently, congestion negatively impacts on freight access. On certain roads (such as Port Link Road), freight access should be prioritised. 4) NMT – Rickshaws and cycles will benefit from the more general improvements to road conditions. However, rickshaws should be encouraged as ‘feeder’ services and discouraged from operating on bus priority roads once a quality PT alternative has been provided for their passengers. Cycles are not currently used commonly in Chittagong, but improving general road conditions is expected to improve their access around the city. Due to their low modal share, they are currently not planned for in terms of regulation or infrastructure. 5) Private transport – Private transport in this context encompasses CNGs, car taxis, private cars and motorcycles. Due to their low occupancy rate and high potential for causing pollution and congestion, these modes are to be least prioritized in the long-term vision. The public transport system should be improved to a point that it offers an affordable and attractive alternative for the majority of private transport users. Despite being considered as private transport and, as such, being last within the hierarchy their function is recognised, improvements to public transport within the corridor will ensure that bus becomes more attractive than CNG for medium and long distance trips. CNGs are often the mode favoured by women and children, meaning that improving women’s safety on public transport will help to allow them to choose public transport over the CNGs. This emphasises the importance of ensuring a safe and efficient public transport system for the city, if the desired outcomes (i.e. lower reliance on private transport) are to be achieved. Conversely, it also emphasises the importance of not removing private vehicles from the city in an abrupt manner, so as not to further disadvantage already vulnerable groups of people. 3.4 Potential for phased introduction The time horizon for improvement is five years and the change outlined is complex with each component interrelated. As such there is a need to consider what might be achieved in the short term and how this might be related to achieving, in full, the longer-term objectives for the corridor. Physical improvements can be part of a capital investment programme that seek to support the already implemented elevated highway and whose detailed design can be incorporated into the design of the elevated highway extension. However, those changes that involve institutional adaption and regulatory change are longer term requiring careful consultation with affected bodies, potentially creating new regulations and new institutions together with training and capacity building. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 27 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan As such, and before defining the measures to be incorporated, potential phasing is considered; the first phase concentrates on developing the institutional capacity to implement BRT, with the second phase focusing on infrastructure and operational changes. 3.4.1 Phase 1: Years 1-3 (2019 - 2022) Institutional change will take time but this can be facilitated by short term action which shows actual improvement and indicates commitment to further improvement. Focussing on corridor efficiency early action should include traffic engineering/management to improve vehicle flow. Highway segment-specific measures should be advanced through junction redesign and addressing pinch points along the corridor. This phase will involve a systematic rationalisation and reallocation of the effective carriageway area and multi-utility zones along the corridor. The proposed measures will emphasise widening of side walks and changes to on-street parking management i.e. stopping and waiting, loading and unloading. Additionally, measures to improve freight movements to the port will be implemented, such as a freight vehicle parking terminal and truck booking system. At this stage public transport improvement would primarily be achieved through accommodating existing services/vehicles through improved corridor throughput (improving run times) and better management of stopping points. As such, there would be no alteration to services. In parallel to early implementation a process of public transport route rationalisation would be undertaken that would see route designation (vehicle type and operating parameters) on the basis of role within the overall public transport hierarchy. The rationalisation would facilitate institutional reorganisation of public transport delivery to support Phase 2. A feasibility study and detailed design of the BRT system must be undertaken within Phase 1 to enable full implementation in Phase 2. As such, Phase 1 focuses on the implementation of local interventions and quick wins. Additionally, it will incorporate the early adoption of suitable Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS) techniques to respond to major environmental challenges in Chittagong, including flooding during normal monsoon periods whilst enhancing resilience of the public transport system. The following key components of this phase have been identified: • Institutional reorganisation and bus sector reform • Feasibility study and detailed design for BRT system • Implement junction redesigns along corridor including provision of foot over bridges • On street parking management and enforcement • Side walk improvements and SuDS 3.4.2 Phase 2: Years 3-5 (2023 – 2025) As basic measures are established, the corridor is intended to migrate into one with increased levels of segregation and dedicated bus stops accessed by at-grade crossings or foot overbridges for sections with high vehicle flows. Enhanced journey times and ease of use are critical considerations. This phase will involve the implementation of segregated median bus lanes along main road segments with a view to accommodating public transport vehicles, reducing the levels of conflict with other modes of transport and road side friction associated with road activities and access routes to major trip generators (e.g. Port gates). Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 28 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan The use of new bus lanes could initially be opened to multiple operators as long as vehicles using the bus priority infrastructure comply with predefined requirements and technical characteristics. Requirements should be defined in conjunction with the authority taking into consideration the user’s perspective to offer a greater level of comfort and safety. This will be discussed further in relation to institutional change. Seamless integration with subsidiary services such as rickshaws, GNC, tempo and human haulers is also important. Specific zones designated for specific use of smaller vehicles will be designed and introduced to enable users to complete last-mile journeys in a convenient manner. The following key components of this phase have been identified: • Enhanced public realm • Introduction of dedicated bus lanes and bus stops • Improved vehicle specification • On-street bus lane enforcement • Provision of street level pedestrian crossings and foot overbridges Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 29 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 4 Corridor Improvements As highlighted in the previous section, the corridor approach sees an integrated approach whereby a pallet of interventions are implemented that improve, as a whole, the operation of the corridor for all. Central to this is public transport improvement. The approach taken to improving public transport is that public transport should be seen as a system comprised of interrelated components that all act together to service, in the most optimal form, those that use, deliver and operate it. In taking such an approach, the aspirations of service levels most often achieved in BRT systems can be adopted with full adoption of BRT design ideals achieved in a staged and planned manner. The following components are considered herein: • Dedicated running lanes • Junction improvement • Stations • Vehicles • Service plan • Arrangement for routes joining the corridor • Bus priority measures off corridor • Revenue collection • ITS • Pedestrian facilities • Terminals & interchanges • Depots • Major civil works • Institutional arrangements • Branding • Parking management • Other design issues Each of these components are considered separately below but eventual design should emphasise their integration and their definition through a thorough understanding of user needs. That user needs understanding has started with the work undertaken in defining the SUTMP but must be extended to scope design issues. This should then be further supported by stakeholder consultation in order to secure support and reduce implementation risk. 4.1 Dedicated running lanes Allocating dedicated running lanes for public transport vehicles can significantly improve run times with the effect of improving service level to users and reducing operating cost through removing interaction with other vehicles. In CDA Avenue where vehicle flow is dominated by public transport and road space used inefficiently dedicating space to public transport only can have limited negative effects upon the capacity of road space left for other vehicles, and may even increase it. Designating dedicated lanes does however require careful planning to ensure that lane dedication has sufficient Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 30 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan capacity and service planning to ensure that only services that offer appropriate service level standards are able to enter. 4.1.1 Phase 1 There are no running lanes recommended for implementation as part of Phase 1. 4.1.2 Phase 2 It is proposed that dedicated running lanes be introduced as part of Phase 2. Much of the corridor is blessed with ample width to allocate dedicated running ways. The impacts of reallocating road space from ‘all traffic’ to just buses would be almost wholly offset by the reorganisation of residual carriageway space. That reorganisation would see removal of Rickshaws and CNG from running along the corridor and footpath rehabilitation to enable pedestrians to return from walking on the road to walking on footpaths. Further the existing linear flyover, and planned future extension, removes through and heavy traffic from at-grade running. To illustrate the potential arrangements with a segregated running way concept designs at various indicative locations have been considered. These are illustrated in Figures 4-1 to 4-4 and are based upon measured widths. 4.1.2.1 Concept Design for Segregated Running Way North of Gate 2 Figure 4-1 shows a concept design north of Gate 2. At this location an arrangement whereby, a single running way in each direction sits in the residual space underneath the flyover. Two lanes can be provided for general traffic. Whilst actual widths vary this arrangement can be generally applied along much of the length of CDA Avenue where the flyover exists, and where the future flyover might be built. There is some freedom to alter footpath and running lane widths. 4.1.2.2 Concept Design for Segregated Running Way South of Gate 2 with Station Figure 4-2 shows a concept design cross section for a station sitting underneath the flyover. This seeks to utilize the space in between flyover support pillars enabling movement across from one carriageway to another and around the pillars to enable elongated stations to be designed, as might be required to accommodate anticipate passenger volumes. Two BRT lanes are provided at the station to enable a mixture of different services to be accommodated as well as express services. This feature is required to accommodate a direct service plan at the high volumes of patronage expected. 4.1.2.3 Concept Design for Asymmetric Station Arrangement (Arakan Road) Figure 4-3 shows an asymmetric station arrangement. This station arrangement is required where widths are more constrained. Figure 4-4 shows, in plan form, how the two stations relate to each other. This arrangement retains the high station and running way capacity by separating out the two directions of travel. 4.1.2.4 Concept Design for Running way on Arakan Road Figure 4-5 shows the concept cross-section design for the running-way on Arakan Road which is narrower than CDA Avenue. It shows that the BRT can be inserted while leaving two lanes for general traffic in both directions. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 31 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-1: Cross-section of BRT running way, north of No. 2 Gate on CDA Avenue Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 32 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-2: Cross-section of a median BRT station south of No. 2. Gate on CDA Avenue Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 33 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-3: Cross-section of asymmetric BRT station suitable for Arkan Road to Kalurghat Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 34 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-4: Plan of an asymmetric BRT station suitable for Arkan Road to Kalurghat Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 35 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-5: Cross-section of BRT running way: Arakan Road to Kalurghat Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 36 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 4.1.3 Segregation Whilst many cities use a painted line on the road surface to designate priority this can be ineffective in situations with occasional enforcement and/or a culture of erratic driver behaviour. As such, it is more effective in terms of protecting the run time benefits that segregation achieves by providing physical segregation which is, largely self-enforcing. Kerb The most common form of segregation is a standard kerb face. The kerb can be continuous or have gaps to allow water to drain through the segregation. In many instances where discontinuous kerbing is used a solid kerb is provided at stations to give added visual enforcement of the segregation. The advantages of this form of segregation are the high visual and physical impact as well as the familiarity within an urban road environment. It can however form a hazard in areas of flooding where its presence cannot be seen. Rumble Strips The convex rumble strip is used in Johannesburg’s ‘Rea Vaya’ BRT. It provides physical, visual and acoustic warning to drivers if they begin to cross from the general traffic land and into the BRT lane. The advantages of this form of segregation are that water can drain across the segregation strip, dust/debris does not collect alongside the strip and a BRT vehicle can cross the strip at low speed should a breakdown occur within the segregated lane. The disadvantages are that the segregation can be dangerous to motorcycles and large trucks are able to cross and entre the segregated lane at slow speed. Flexible Posts Flexible plastic barriers or bollards present a low-cost method of controlling and separating traffic flow. The combination of the bollard being inserted as a flexible (self- righting) unit ensures that if a vehicle collides with the plastic bollard, the bollard automatically returns to its upright position. The addition of reflective panels to the shaft of the bollard provides a visual warning to drivers and reduces the potential of collision based accidents. The advantages of this method are that drainage is not affected, it is a highly visible form of segregation and does not cause damage in the case of a collision. The disadvantage is that it has a negative aesthetic impact and does not provide an overtly physical barrier. Fences A fence can be provided to enable segregation. This is highly visible and a clear physical delineation, it also allows water to run through and this is a major benefit in flood prone areas where the fence is Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 37 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan able to be seen above flood waters. Many Chinese BRT systems adopt this method, particularly in locations that do not have restrictions on lane width. Disadvantages include ‘edge shyness’ requiring increased lane width either side due to driver reluctance to pass close to such a high barrier. Source: ITDP 2016 4.2 Junction improvements Junctions are currently chaotic and unmanaged. Significant transport benefits, across all modes, can be achieved through junction improvement and management. Junctions will be improved during Phase 1, as part of a road improvement project described in detail in the Road Schemes Pre- Feasibility Study. These improvements will free available capacity by moving parked vehicles away from the junction, some physical design alterations and imposing signal control. This will be reinforced through active enforcement. The improvement of junctions as part of Phase 1 paves the way for segregated busways along CDA Avenue, releasing capacity that can be allocated to a quality bus service. Junction designs as part of Phase 1 should be fully aware of the needs of the segregated busway to be implemented as part of Phase 2. Most crucially this should consider the ability to give high levels of priority through the junction and to manage stations so that there is both no adverse impact upon the operation of the junction and that buses can be released from the station and through the junction with minimal delay. There is a total of 30 junctions which will need to be signalised (Figure 4-7). There is also a large number of minor roads (alleyways) which meet the corridor, the feasibility study should survey these small roads to identify which should be allowed to connect onto the corridor. Figure 4-6 gives an example of how a station, south of Sholashohor 2 No Gate Circle, might relate to a junction taking into account the flyover supports. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 38 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-6: Plan of a BRT station and junction at No. 2 Gate on CDA Avenue Elevated highway pillars are 3.6m wide by 2.5 deep BRT stations are 4.6m wide and 66m long Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 39 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-7: Location of signalized junctions along BRT route Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 40 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 4.3 Bus stops/stations 4.3.1 Phase 1 During phase 1, bus services will continue to operate at kerb side as an interim arrangement. As such, no alteration will be made to stopping arrangements. 4.3.2 Phase 2 Phase 2 will see a movement to stopping either at kerb side or median depending upon configuration within each route section and at kerb side where services operate outside of the corridor. Stops are an opportunity to both regulate the place at which boarding and alighting occurs and the way in which users access services both of which are able to enhance the level of service given to users. Stops should be supported by shelters and/or stations. Where stops are at kerb side structures can be kept simple to offer basic services such as; shelter, information and seating. Where the stop is in the median a more formal approach can be adopted with the basic requirements found at kerb side stops supplemented by the need to protect users from conflict with adjacent moving vehicles. The means of payment has a significant influence on stop/station design and this will be discussed later. A total of 31 station locations have been identified along the BRT running way (Figure 4-8). The locations have been identified by analysing the stopping pattern and boarding/alighting data of existing bus services, as well as a consideration of important interchange locations. Concepts designs for types of station are presented: • Median stations in Figure 4-2 and Figure 4-6; which are suitable for insertion beneath an elevated expressway • Median-Asymmetric stations in Figure 4-3 and Figure 4-4 which are suitable for insertion in narrower streets which do not feature an elevated highway In order to handle the different direct services and high bus frequencies, it is recommended that stations are long enough to feature two bus bays per direction, this requires a total length of 42m minimum. The elevated expressway features pillars which are 33m apart, therefore the station should occupy the space beneath 2 sets of pillars – a total length of 66m. Stations must be sufficiently wide to accommodate the high forecast demand for passengers boarding and alighting. It is recommended that asymmetric stations are 4m wide, while median stations should be at least 5m wide. However the stations that are located underneath the elevated expressway must fit around the pillars. A distance of 2m should be provided to allow pedestrians to walk around a pillar. As the pillars are 3.6m wide, this yields a total stations width of 7.6m underneath the elevated expressway. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 41 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-8: BRT stop locations Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 42 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 4.4 Vehicles Current vehicles are high floor, high pollutants, generally poorly maintained, and possess low levels of comfort for passengers. The poor level of service has a disproportionately high impact upon women travellers, because they may be less able to stand and are generally more sensitive to poor safety and comfort than male passengers. The currently designated seats for female travellers are often located near or over the engine of the vehicle, making them particularly hot and uncomfortable. The migration to higher vehicles standards must proceed alongside institutional reform and means of contracting services. Adoption of the corridor improvement plan would see existing Human Haulers and buses replaced by higher quality vehicles. Improving vehicle standards will require significant capital investment and ongoing operational cost to maintain vehicles to ensure continued appropriate standards and reliability. As such full feasibility study should investigate means by which vehicles might be acquired and financed together with a full investigation of the relationship between revenue and operational cost. Improving vehicles will significantly reduce environmental impact through air quality improvements, improve service level through improved reliability and user satisfaction. 4.4.1 Phase 1 Phase 1 will be a period of migration and exploration of the efficacy of improving vehicle standards both in terms of operator receptiveness and ability to operate improved vehicles fleets and the financial arrangements for purchase. 4.4.2 Phase 2 Significant improvements will be made to vehicle quality and performance within phase 2. Vehicle specification should focus upon the following issues: • Vehicles size that supports demand and the derived service plan. There will be a need to reconcile optimum vehicle headway with vehicle capacity with consideration given to either 12m or 18 articulated buses. The latter will impact upon depot requirements/space and layover facilities. • Door positioning and vehicle floor height. A direct system with at least some median running will require passengers to access vehicles both on the off and near side of the vehicle. Doors on both sides are not uncommon but have an impact upon internal capacity where space is lost to the door mechanism. Floor height is also a consideration. Passenger boarding should be made as easy and quick as possible, this implies minimising the number of steps to be negotiated. This also benefits those with restricted or impaired mobility. Low floor buses may be considered but are liable to be discounted due to the need to run, potentially, on uneven road surfaces and the effects of flooding. High floor vehicles (circa 1m) would present access problems where the vehicle stops at conventional kerb faces. As such a mid-floor height that achieves level boarding at median stops and a one step approach from kerb stops might be the most appropriate option. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 43 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan • Regulations and Law. Permissible axle loading and length restrictions can put significant restrictions upon bus type. In many countries buses operating at capacity exceed permissible axle loadings and in such instances twin back axles might need to be considered. • Fuel type. Buses and human haulers currently operate with low grade diesel and offer emissions standards below EUROI. The EUROI emission standards are:  CO – 2.72 g/km (petrol and diesel)  HC+ NOx – 0.97 g/km (petrol and diesel)  PM – 0.14 g/km (diesel only) At least EUROIII standard ought to be achievable, this would raise emissions to the following standard and have a significant effect upon local air quality and make a marked reduction in Greenhouse Gas emissions:  CO – 0.64 g/km  HC+ NOx – 0.56 g/km  NOx – 0.50 g/km  PM – 0.05 g/km Diesel fuelled buses that meet EUROIII standard are readily available at a reasonable cost, however, given the prevalence of CNG in Bangladesh active consideration should be given to CNG as a fuel source. This might potentially offer savings in operating cost and reduced emissions but would add to capital cost through increased vehicle cost and depot fuelling facilities. • Interior space and quality. The interior layout should seek to provide maximum seating capacity recognising that passengers currently sit and that journey lengths are not overtly short. Space should be designated as ‘women only’ seats should offer comfort with seat pitch set to accommodate average dimensions of the local population and there should be air conditioning. 4.5 Service plan 4.5.1 Phase 1 Existing bus services will continue to operate as existing pending re franchising with performance based contracts. 4.5.2 Phase 2 The recommended service plan is a mix of direct services and feeder services. The feeder services are shortened versions of existing routes which are forecast to have low passenger numbers in the future. The service plan replaces all, but two, bus routes in Chittagong with direct BRT services and feeder routes. This enables a smooth transition from existing services to proposed services, without adversely affecting users; enables multiple services to gain run time benefits from infrastructure along the primary corridor; and, reduces the amount of infrastructure improvements required to Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 44 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan support interchange and turn vehicles around. As this BRT corridor affects all but 2 bus routes in Chittagong it requires updating nearly the whole fleet of buses in the city, this is why the bus requirement is so high and why routes should transfer over to use the BRT one by one as they are ready. Figure 4-7 presents the service plan for the BRT services with Table 4-1 and Table 4-2 presenting the forecast patronage, necessary frequencies and peak vehicle requirement if the new vehicles were to carry a maximum of 80 passengers. The service plan has been developed to match the vehicle frequency to the forecast passenger load on each section of the BRT corridor. Figure 4-10 and Figure 4-11 present a diagram of the BRT network in 2025 and 2030 with the forecast peak passenger load (PPHPD) as well as the peak bus frequency provided. The high combined frequencies will require these routes to operate express services as well as stopping services. The migration of routes that are first able to operate under performance based contracts to use the bus priority infrastructure should take precedence. They are typically, provided by larger and more capable organisations who are used to conventional bus operations. The means and mechanisms of their migration will be considered in project Deliverable 7. Routes B2, B6 and B10 ply almost exclusively within the BRT corridor and can thus be considered the core network. Routes B4, B7, B11 and B15 will join the corridor as direct services from Zakir Hossain Rd, Agrabad Road, Port Connecting Road and Dhaka Trunk Road respectively. These routes are strategically important and are forecast to carry significant daily patronage. Route B15 replaces the Human Hauler route H15 and Tempo route T10 which together carry high passenger flows along the Dhaka Trunk Road today Three routes that currently use the corridor are forecast to have low patronage due to duplication with other routes and because they may only ply the corridor for short sections. For these routes it is appropriate to shorten them to turn them into feeder routes. The feeder routes are, B5: Between the airport and Cement Crossing; B8: Oxygen to 2 No. Gate; and B12: Chittagong University of Engineering – Kaptai Jct. Routes B4, B7 and B11 are direct routes which for the most part operate outside of the BRT corridor and outside of bus priority measures, they therefore present a high risk for the efficient operation of the BRT network. The feasibility study should investigate these routes in detail to identify if they should remain as direct routes or be shortened into feeder services. The routes B1 and B3 cross or touch the BRT corridor, but do not run along it, so they remain unchanged. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 45 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-9: Service Plan and Indicative Station Locations Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 46 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Table 4-1: Service Plan (2025) Peak-hr One-way Peak-hr Round frequency Peak Vehicle Route length Daily Boarders headway trip time (buses per Requirement (km) (Mins) (Hours) hour) B2 13.0 104,000 50 3.2 1.4 77 B4 18.0 151,000 40 2.4 2.1 92 B6 18.5 214,000 40 1.3 2.0 88 B7 11.6 158,000 40 1.2 1.6 70 B10 23.0 664,000 110 0.5 2.3 278 B11 15.6 285,000 50 0.8 2.2 121 B15 12.8 235,000 60 0.9 1.8 119 B5 Feeder 8.3 38,000 15 3.8 1.1 18 B8 Feeder 4.4 22,000 15 3.8 0.8 13 B12 Feeder 16.1 14,000 3 20.0 2.3 8 TOTAL 1,886,000 885 Table 4-2: Service Plan (2030) Peak-hr One-way Peak-hr Round frequency Peak Vehicle Route length Daily Boarders headway trip time (buses per Requirement (km) (Mins) (Hours) hour) B2 13.0 79,000 40 4.6 1.3 57 B4 18.0 223,000 50 1.4 2.0 110 B6 18.5 174,000 30 1.5 1.9 63 B7 11.6 217,000 45 0.9 2.2 109 B10 23.0 724,000 120 0.5 2.3 304 B11 15.6 407,000 60 0.6 2.4 158 B15 12.8 365,000 90 0.6 1.9 188 B5 Feeder 8.3 92,000 35 1.6 1.2 46 B8 Feeder 4.4 35,000 20 3.2 1.1 24 B12 Feeder 16.1 19,000 4 15.0 2.3 10 TOTAL 2,334,000 1,069 Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 47 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-10: BRT Network Plan 2025 Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 48 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-11: BRT Network Plan 2030 Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 49 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 4.6 Arrangements for routes joining the BRT corridor To ensure reliability in the regularity services along the BRT corridor the entrance of vehicles onto the BRT corridor should be managed. This is important to ensure buses which ply sections off corridor do not bunch up. Two technological solutions can be implemented: • Bus signals at entrance to corridor. This is similar to highway ramp metering whereby sensors monitor the headway of BRT vehicles plying the corridor at a point near to the entrance. Joining buses are held at the entrance to the corridor until a sufficient gap in headway is detected to allow them to join the corridor • Manage on route. Vehicles off corridor should be monitored using GPS tracking devices. Drivers are informed to change their speed to ensure regular headway is maintained. An example of this is the Buzz system used in Santiago in Chile. Drivers use a mobile tablet with instructions based on GPS locations of all vehicles on the network. Instructions such as “wait additional time at bus stop, slow down, speed up if possible” prompt the driver to change his driving behaviour managing the overall headway. Figure 4-12 Buzz Console System. Source: BRT Centre of Excellence 4.7 Bus priority measures for direct services To ensure direct services can maintain a high operational speed off corridor a series of bus priority measures are required along secondary corridors. This will involve resurfacing of the roadway, construction of new footpaths, organising of street traders, junction re-design and the implementation of bus priority lanes. Unlike the BRT corridor the bus priority lanes will not have physical separation from other lanes but should be clear to other road users that only buses can use them. To do this road markings and street signs should be used. The bus priority lanes will be installed bilaterally, enabling road-side pick up. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 50 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-13 Example of Bus Priority Lane Markings In addition, priority at signalised junctions along the bus priority corridors should also be considered and should be integrated into the ITS systems. 4.8 Revenue collection Revenue collection relates to the institutional arrangements and the form of contract between those that plan the services and those that provide them. The mechanical act of payment should support this, be acceptable to users and should facilitate efficient operation. 4.8.1 Phase 1 Phase 1 will be a transitional phase for institutional and contracting arrangements, as such revenue collection will largely remain unaltered with primary concentration upon winning support from operators for institutional change. 4.8.2 Phase 2 Within phase 2 there is a clear preference for off board payment in order to increase boarding speed which, in turn, reduces the overall bus run time. The Dhaka Transport Coordination Agency (DTCA) is has launched a smart card system called ‘Rapid Pass’ for use across all mass transit lines that are being introduced in Dhaka. This is a stored value smart card that operates as a Pay As You Go system. The World Bank (2018) study titled ‘Nationwide Interoperability in Fare Collection, Critical Factors for Bangladesh’ finds that the Rapid Pass card being introduced in Dhaka can be deployed elsewhere in the country, for example Chittagong, and there are many user and operator benefits to establish a single smart-card system for the nation. We recommend that Rapid Pass system is used in Chittagong, in order for this to happen the World Bank report finds that a number of modifications are required for it to enable transactions in other cities namely: • The system is currently owned by DTCA, in order to allow multiple authorities and transport operators to be represented in decision-making and ownership of the central system, a Special Purpose Vehicle should be set up. • The SPV must establish proven business model 4.9 ITS Intelligent transportation system (ITS) is the application of sensing, analysis, control and communications technologies to ground transportation in order to improve safety, mobility and Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 51 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan efficiency. ITS includes a wide range of applications that process and share information to ease congestion, improve traffic management, minimize environmental impact and increase the benefits of transportation to commercial users and the public in general. An ITS strategy for the corridor might seek to: 1) Ensure effective operation of traffic control devices along the corridor 2) Make optimal use of the flyover, directing through traffic away from the at-grade options. 3) Give information relating to use of the corridor, in particular route options and parking 4) Encourage appropriate use of public transport options 5) Guide effective and efficient maintenance of the road 6) Optimise operational performance of public transport As has previously been stated the actions that make a fundamental and significant difference to travel along the corridor are those that create order out of the use of existing road space and that improve travel conditions on public transport. As such, medium term priorities for ITS should focus upon these aspects but not prejudice migration to a full and comprehensive approach to corridor, and wider area, control in the future. As such, the priorities for ITS should be: • Effective signal control at junctions, implemented as part of Phase 1 • Monitoring of bus fleet for operational optimisation and passenger information implemented as part of Phase 2 4.10 Pedestrian facilities Pedestrian currently receive very low priority having to fit in amongst a chaotic and conflict-ridden street scene. As part of corridor improvement pedestrians must be given high priority and with that, protection from conflict with vehicles. There are three focal points to pedestrian improvements: 1) Linear movement along the corridor – Phase 1 2) Crossing movements to the other side of the road and to median bus stations – Phase 2 3) Movement to and away from the corridor – Phase 2 4.10.1 Linear movement along the corridor Figure 4-14 shows the loss of carriageway space and the danger for pedestrians where no formal footpath is provided. Here a space of 7m is lost to indiscriminate parking and pedestrian movement. Placing a footpath of a minimum of 2m in width together with placing car parking outside of the main corridor would protect pedestrians from conflict (encouraging walking) and release 5m of road space that can be given for the through movement of traffic on the main corridor through the city. This particularly benefits the poorest citizens who have no choice but to walk, whilst high quality uncluttered footpaths also significantly benefit people with mobility impairments. In certain locations it is necessary to implement pedestrian overbridges, where there is a high volume of traffic and significant risk of pedestrian-vehicle conflict. Locations where overbridges Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 52 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan should be provided are at GEC Circle on CDA Avenue, CEPZ junction on M.A. Aziz Road and Sholoshahar No.2 Gate on CDA Avenue. At New Market Circle it should be considered that overbridges are supplemented with elevated walkways. Figure 4-14: Lack of footpath on CDA Avenue 4.10.2 Crossing movements Crossing of CDA Avenue is currently perilous with the road acting as a barrier to pedestrians. Phase one improvements to signal junctions will incorporate protected pedestrian crossing and foot overbridges where necessary. Implementation of segregated running ways in Phase 2 with median stations will incorporate protected crossings to stations. Figure 4-15: Pedestrian Crossing facility with BRT in Yichang China Image courtesy of ITDP (2017) Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 53 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 4.10.3 Movement to and away from the corridor The corridor serves many origins and destinations but not all of those that passengers using the services along the corridor wish to access. As such, movement to and from the corridor must be planned as part of the corridor intervention. Relocation of the role of Rickshaw and CNG as access mode will in part address this but also investment on footpath improvements on roads perpendicular to CDA Avenue should be included. 4.11 Terminals and interchanges Public transport terminals and interchanges in Chittagong are both operationally inefficient and offer a low level of service to passengers. Bahaddarhat is an example of an important and busy interchange that is of particularly low quality, see below. Improvement of terminal facilities therefore give significant benefit in terms of user needs, operational performance, safety and local environment. Lack of service in terminals and interchanges, whilst being inconvenient to all members of society, disproportionately disadvantages women and people with disabilities who are more in need to comfortable seating or other services such as toilets. Safety in terminals and interchanges is also a very high priority for female passengers. In addition the improvements demonstrate that public transport is valued as a primary means of mobility within the city. Figure 4-16: Bahaddarhat Terminal: Poor Design & Facilities Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 54 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-17: Bahaddarhat Terminal: Poor Access Arrangements 4.11.1 Phase 1 Terminals can be improved and reorganised independent of the wider corridor improvement as their improvement offers immediate and significant benefit. As such it is proposed that improvements be undertaken at the two large scale terminals at Bahaddarhat and New Market which lie on the route. In addition upgrades are required at inter-district and city bus terminals as below. Function Location Inter-district bus terminals Kadamtali/Shuvopur Goribullah Shah (GEC) AK Khan Station Road New Chandgaon Cinema Palace Interdistrict & Citybus terminals Oxygen Alongkar Mor City-bus Terminals New Bridge Potenga Kalurghat Colonel Hat 4.11.2 Phase 2 In phase 2, the introduction of running ways and BRT services will require terminals to be constructed at route ends to enable vehicle layover and driver brakes. Figure 4-18 identifies where these could be located, as well as the land take required. The figure presents the peak hour frequency of buses that each terminal should serve by 2030. The total required land take for Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 55 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan terminals is 8.25 hectares which is estimated to cost $41.25M assuming a cost of $5M per hectare for developed land. Sufficient undeveloped or underdeveloped land is available at each of the locations, however successful land purchase is dependent on negotiation so exact locations cannot yet be specified. Note that the SUTMP identifies that the terminal at Faujdarhat will be supplemented by an 8- hectare inter-district bus terminal. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 56 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-18: Location of terminals required in phase 2 Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 57 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 4.12 Depots As this BRT projects seeks to replace the majority of the bus fleet in Chittagong, the total required fleet size is high at 1,069 buses in 2030. To service these vehicles, three depots are proposed with the following capacity and size: • Kalurghat area: 200 buses, 2.8 hectares • Patenga area: 400 buses, 5.4 hectares • Faujdarhat/City Gate area: 550 buses, 7.8 hectares These areas are largely located beyond the continuous urban area of Chittagong where large areas of undeveloped land exist. The total required land take for depots is 16.1 hectares which is estimated to cost $32.2M at a cost of $2M per hectare for undeveloped land. The final choice for where each depot is located depends on a number of factors inducing land ownership, terrain, ground conditions, plot shape and access to the corridor. The feasibility study should undertake a detailed search and assessment of suitable sites. The suggest search areas are presented in Figure 4-19. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 58 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-19: Search areas for depot sites Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 59 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 4.13 Major civil works The only major civil works that are envisages are improvements to railway crossings which would be carried out in phase 1. 8 railway crossings have been identified who’s upgrade will enable the smooth running of the BRT services when they are both on and off corridor. These are listed below and plotted in Figure 4-20. • Bayazid Bostami Road, west of Oxygen • Bayazid Bostami Road, north of Sholashohor No 2 Gate • Hathazari Road, north of Muradpur • Zakir Hossain Road east of Abdul Hanman Rd • Zakir Hossain Road, Ispahani Crossing • Ambagan Road • Old Dewanhat Road • M.A. Aziz Road, south of Salt Gola The works should involve construction of barriers and signals, a concrete level roadway and repaving the roadway within 50m up and downstream. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 60 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 4-20: Railway crossings that require upgrade 4.14 Institutional arrangements Institutional analysis and recommendations are contained in project Deliverable D7 (Bus Restructuring & Institutional Assessment). The approach recognises the significant change required in both the public sector and its means of planning and contracting bus services, and, organisation and management of private operators. The level of change invokes significant project implementation risk and as such a phased approach is recommended supported by high levels of consultation and support. During Phase 1, it is proposed that a Public Transport Authority (PTA) for Chittagong is established with the purpose to: Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 61 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan • Plan the future BRT/bus services • Manage oversee and guide the BRT/Corridor feasibility and design study • Engage and consult with public transport operators and map their needs, desires and capabilities • Discuss and agree means of contracting and forms of operator response that would be required to meet the project ideals The board members of the PTA should comprise the members of the existing SUTMP coordination committee which includes CCC, CDA, CMP, CPA and BRTA. This authority will obtain legal authority from the GOB and be placed under the Ministry of Road Transport and Bridges. Table 4-3 presents the proposed development of the authority. Phase 1 focuses on the core tasks of transport planning, contracting and monitoring. In phases 2 complex projects are added with respect to Bus Rapid Transit and the introduction of a smart card and a real-time information system. Table 4-3: Road map for the Development of the PTA Tasks related to Public Transport Phase 1 Phase 2 Start PTA Develop the network 2019 - 2022 2023 - 2025 Transport Planning and Financial x x Planning Management of Bus Services and x x financial support Promotion of public transport x x Introduction of a Transport Service x Contract Tendering of new lines x x Introduction of Automated Vehicle x Localization (AVL) Introduction of Automated Fare x Collection (AFC) Introduction of a Passenger x Information System (PIS) Introduction of Bus Rapid Transit X (BRT) In phase 1 the authority will develop and implement policies to encourage commuters to choose the most appropriate transportation mode and make effective planning and coordination activities for proper implementation of BRT project. The authority should be able to make Public Transport Policies and Guidelines efficiently and can implement Monitoring and Safety initiatives. The new authority, its funding and powers, must be established in law. In phase 1 the board of the PTA will be formed by the executive order of the Government, this board will comprise the existing Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 62 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan members of the STUMP coordination committee plus additional industry representatives. This board will oversee the activities and development of the PTA. In Phase 2 the authority should be able to recommend updating regulations on licensing, route permits of public and private agencies as well as regulation of the safety and the fare structure in the Chittagong Urban Area. It should be able to provide all regulatory rules of construction and operation of BRT project including safety and security. It will also coordinate the implementation of the BRT system. Phase 2 tasks for the PTA that are specific to the implementation phase of the BRT are: • Supervise implementation including contracting construction and other support services • Give assistance to operators enabling them to form collective groups able to respond to performance-based contracts • Develop service contracts, advertise and let those contracts • Undertake comprehensive consultation programme Table 4-4 presents the proposed staffing, for each phase. It is recommended to start with a small organization of 10 staff and develop the PTA step-by-step, in line with the development of the public transport network and associated projects. It is government policy to reduce the number of staff dependent of the state budget. Therefore, options for external revenues will be presented below. Table 4-4: Staffing of the PTA Positions Phase 1 Phase 2 Start PTA Implement BRT Year 1-2 Year 3-4 Management • Management 1 1 • Supporting Staff 1 1 Planning • Transport Planning 1 2 • Financial Planning 1 1 • Supporting Staff 2 3 Contracting • Procurement 0.5 1 • Monitoring 2 3 • Communication and Marketing 0.5 1 • Supporting Staff 1 1 Projects • Infrastructure Management 1 Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 63 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Positions Phase 1 Phase 2 Start PTA Implement BRT Year 1-2 Year 3-4 • IT Systems 1 • Supporting Staff 2 Total 10 18 The proposed organizational structure emphasizes not just the routine planning and activities, but also to emphasize on effective and efficient service delivery by skilled and experienced manpower in planning and implementation of works like introduction of Metro Services, BRT operation etc. 4.15 Bus Sector Reform Recommendations to reform the bus sector are presented in detail in Deliverable D7 (Bus Restructuring & Institutional Assessment). The newly formed transport authority will take a lead in developing the operational and contracting operations for these services seeking to maximise benefit, minimise impact and offer a smooth transition between the existing mode of operation to that of performance-based contracts. The detail of a restructuring plan will evolve as issues are identified and personalities established, however a high-level implementation plan is defined in order to give some anticipation of task requirement within a target timeframe of 5 years. Phase 1 (2019 – 2022) 1) Establish function and protocol of the existing SUTMP Co-ordinating Committee as an oversight and supervisory body 2) Define, agree and appoint the first phase posts to act within the new formed executive authority that will develop the bus reform process/BRT. 3) Develop and start to implement industry engagement/consultation plan 4) Define, agree and appoint the first phase posts to act within the new formed executive authority that will develop the bus reform process/BRT. 5) Define, analyse and consult on forms of contract between authority and operators 6) Define, agree and appoint the second phase posts to act within the new formed executive authority that will develop the bus reform process/BRT. 7) Review and agree the BRT Feasibility Study and its requirements for industry and institutional reform 8) Actively assist operating industry in understanding and acting upon reform 9) Develop and implement social impact protection plan for those adversely affected by reform Phase 2 (2022 – 2025) 1) Define, agree and appoint the third phase posts to act within the new formed executive authority that will develop the bus reform process/BRT. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 64 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 2) Work with industry to consolidate where required and develop needed skills to operate under new regime. 3) Work with institutional partners on the implementation of BRT including specification of control equipment and refinement of operational service plan 4) Work with operators on forming new operating entities (as required), consolidation (as required) and skill development 5) Draft forms of contract In Chittagong bus services are provided by a relatively large number of small operators. The World Bank Urban Bus Toolkit, advises that they must be replaced with fewer, larger operators. Each replacement should be big enough to operate an entire route, in the case of a route contract system. Considering the prevailing PT situation in Chittagong and consultation with the relevant stakeholders, it is recommended that companies should be formed out of the existing bus owners. This reduces the concern for present bus operators that they will be excluded from their ongoing business. These companies would purchase the assets of all existing operators, and offer employment to all employees. These may include a large number of owners, who also drive their own vehicles. Small informal operators may be encouraged to combine into more formalized groups, and to pool their resources to invest in fewer, but larger, vehicles to operate a conventional bus service. It is accepted that there may be some who are negatively impacted as a result of this change. 4.16 Branding A brand is 'a name, term, symbol, or design, or a combination of these, intended to identify the goods or services. This can be undertaken to show differences within competing services but, in the case of raising the awareness and standards of public transport, is aimed at reassuring users and informing them of the quality of services offered. Currently there is little bus branding and that which exists is there to label rather than create identity. As performance base contracts are introduced and service level improved through run time improvements, qualitative and service facility improvements there is greater benefit in branding to reinforce to presence of a premium level service. As such branding should be seen as an intrinsic part of Phase 2 with stakeholder and user research to create appropriate branding, system identity and ownership. 4.17 Parking management It has been noted that the parking within the corridor is indiscriminate and uncontrolled. To implement corridor improvements without addressing this issue would significantly diminish the impact of the proposals. Managing the parking, and in particular to relocate existing parking away from junctions, would release capacity that is reallocated to give priority to public transport. As such parking management should be defined through early feasibility study in Phase 1 and implemented prior to civils works associated with Phase 2 corridor development. 4.17.1 Phase 1 Phase 1 would include detailed study of parking in order to develop a parking management strategy. This strategy would include: Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 65 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan • Location of parking – that both serves properties along the corridor and allows CNG and Rickshaw access to the corridor. • Quantum of parking required to support businesses along the corridor and access to that parking • Pricing of parking and, if applicable, means of revenue collection • Any regulation/legislation needed to control parking • Enforcement of parking controls 4.17.2 Phase 2 Phase 2 would see implementation of parking controls and parking management to integrate, accommodate and manage the construction programme for civil works associated with corridor improvements. 4.18 Other design issues Whilst this study has sought to define the improvements required to enhance mobility along the chosen corridor there are other issues that can, and should, be attached to a transport related corridor improvement strategy. These include: • Public realm and urban design. The corridor is at present dominated by road infrastructure leaving a brutal and harsh environment. Whilst this might be consistent with a high capacity strategic transport route it is at odds with the number of pedestrians within the corridor and the retail-office function of the corridor. Through design of the interventions, active consideration should be given to enhancing the human qualities of the corridor, providing space to enjoy that have seating and soft landscaping. The greening of the corridor should be seen as a key objective. • Integration of transport and land use. Land use creates the need for travel and as such careful integration of transport and land use can manage and reduce the need for travel. Where travel need is created, managing that travel to use public transport, in a context where private travel is increasing, is also important. As such, the newly created executive transport authority should consider the need for controls on the allocation of development rights within the corridor. This would relate to integration with enhanced public transport and management of access to land use development together with the management of any parking associated with that development. • Air quality management. The World Health Organization reports PM10 levels at 135ppm PM2.5 at 95 ppm in Chittagong. Concluding that pollution levels are ‘very high’. A move towards a cleaner public transport fleet in a city will improve air quality. However a design bias that seeks to actively manage air quality should be considered. This would look to increasing levels of constraint on high polluting vehicles with the emphasis on movements through low polluting pubic transport in conjunction with increased green space. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 66 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 4.19 Freight improvements In Phase 1, a number of port-related freight improvements should be made, ensuring that BRT can be implemented in an efficient manner. This includes: • Freight vehicle parking terminal. It is proposed that a ‘satellite’ parking terminal be provided away from the port, allowing trucks to wait ‘off-street’ to remove the need for trucks to park outside the along Mooring Road and M.A. Aziz Road, for long periods of time. The Port will then manage the movement of vehicles to and from the port through an electronic booking system, preventing the influx of vehicles entering the port and bunching of vehicles leaving the port. • Automatic truck booking system. The port should manage the movement of vehicles to and from the port as far as Faujdarhat, through the use of an electronic automatic booking system. This would optimise the flow of freight traffic by registering an approaching truck, instructing the driver to wait at the truck parking terminal and then call for them to be dispatched to the appropriate port gate during the correct time slot. This will enable trucks to depart the parking terminal only when called, so they can drive straight into the port without having to wait on the road side. • Truck management system. This would support the automatic truck booking system, allowing for monitoring of time spent within the port by trucks, and thus control congestion inside the port. • Port communication system. This would allow stakeholders involved in freight to be notified of the delivery of cargo and arrival of cargo at Chittagong Port. • Parking bans on Mooring Road/M.A. Aziz Road. A major source of congestion on the road is the presence of parked trucks outside the port which effectively reduce the carriage way width for traffic. Between Port Gate 1 and Salt Gola, the available width is narrow while traffic volumes are high. Once the truck parking terminal has been established, a parking ban should be implemented on this section of road between Barik Building and Salt Gola. • Development of container overflow yards. The New Mooring Overflow Yard and Bay Container Terminal have been considered for the delivery of cargo to trucks, due to their direct links to the road network. This would reduce congestion in the Chittagong Port area. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 67 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 5 Modelled Impacts and Forecast Patronage A VISUM multi modal transport assignment model was developed in order to develop the Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan, this is reported in full in project deliverable D4 (Traffic Demand and Analysis). The model allows the testing of transport interventions in the years 2022, 2025 and 2030. The model is however strategic with the purposes of guiding strategic decisions making and not for the detailed appraisal of discrete schemes. Nevertheless, its use is helpful in guiding this pre-feasibility study, establishing the efficacy of the interventions proposed for future detailed development. 5.1 Form of model The VISUM Chittagong SUTMP model was used to understand the impacts and examine patronage associated with the general scheme concept developed in Chapter Three. Three global “do something” scenarios were considered. The modelling procedure included altering capacities and speeds based on the targeted implementation dates of individual improvement schemes defined in the SUTMP. The scheme types and modelling procedures used for testing are described below: • Bus Priority - Bus lines plying bus priority links are modelled with a speed of 18 kph a PCU of 2.2 and a vehicle occupancy of 80. • BRT – Bus lines plying BRT links are modelled with a speed of 22.5 kph, a PCU of 2.2 and a vehicle occupancy of 80. • New/Improved Interchange – Capacity and speeds were increased on all links within a 150 meter buffer of the interchange to simulate improved efficiency of road space due to a reduction of stopping PT vehicles. For new interchanges a 5 minute reduction in transfer penalty was applied to model better interchange between PT services. The three “do something” global scenarios consisted of the following schemes as defined in the SUTMP: • 2022 Do Something Scenario:  Improved/organised city bus terminals at: New Market, Patenga, Kalurghat,Colonel Hat  Improve interdistrict and city terminals at: New Bridge,Oxygen Alongkar Mor  Interdistrict bus terminals at: Baldarat, Kadamtali , GEC, AK Khan, New Chandagon.  New Interchange at Baldarat  Top 20 Interchanges improved • 2025 Do Something Scenario - All 2022 projects plus:  Green PT corridor as BRT  Bus priority measures on blue and red corridors • 2030 Do Something Scenario - All 2025 projects plus:  Construct new terminals at: Potenga, Kalgurat ,Alogokar Mor Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 68 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan  Interdistrict and city bus reconstruction terminals at: Baluchara, New Bridge, Faujaharhat (Build) AK Khan, Colonel Hat,GEC (West of Circle), New Chandagon and closure of Kadamtali  Blue corridor as Mass Transit, Red corridor as Mass Transit and secondary corridors as bus priority 5.2 Impact on network Figure 5-1 shows the impact upon car speed of the public transport improvement schemes modelled. This shows that car speeds decrease from 13Kph to 7.5Kph by 2030 with business as usual. The do- something scenario also shows modelled speeds reducing over time, however the degradation of speed is less pronounced and speeds remain around 13Kph in 2022. This can be explained by the impact of public transport interchange improvements and junction improvements along the BRT route. A more efficient use of road space and less blocking and congestion caused by stopping vehicles results in an increase in road capacity which lifts car speeds. The impact becomes less significant in 2025 sand 2030 as an increase in demand simultaneously occurs. Figure 5-1: Impact of the Public transport Improvements on Car Speeds Forecast PM peak -Car Speed 14 12 10 Average Speed kph 8 6 4 2 0 2017 2022 2025 2030 BAU Do Something Figure 5-2 shows in the 2025 BAU scenario bus speeds are modelled to decrease due to increased demand. The green corridor is notably slow with the slowest parts on CDA Avenue between Dewanhat Circle and Ispahani Circle and between Salt Gola Crossing and Barik Building Bus Stop. The introduction of BRT infrastructure along the green corridor in the “do something” scenario for 2025 has a clear impact. This lifts speeds along the corridor to 22.5Kph however parts of the network such as AG Road and city centre roads remain slow due to lack of PT priority and rising congestion. Figure 5-3 shows that by 2030 modelled bus speeds have reduced significantly across the network. Large parts of the network are now reduced to a slow walking speed. The speeds along the green corridor from Saltgola to No2 bus stop speeds are now constantly 10Kph or lower whilst speeds in Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 69 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan other congested areas of city also worsen from 2025. The do something scenario for 2030 has a dramatic impact on PT speeds with BRT infrastructure in place along the Green, Blue and Red corridor’s and bus priority measures in place along the secondary corridors. The result of this is a much more rapid public transport network. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 70 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 5-2: Impact of the Do-Something scenario on bus speed, PM peak hour (2025) Speed (KPH) Speed (KPH) 2025 Business as Usual: PM peak hour bus speed 2025 Do-Something PM peak hour bus speed Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 71 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 5-3: Impact of the Do-Something scenario on bus speed, PM peak hour (2030) Speed (KPH) Speed (KPH) 2030 Business as Usual: PM peak hour bus speeds 2030 Do-Something: PM peak hour bus speeds Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 72 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 5-4: Impact of the Do-Something scenario on car speed, PM peak hour (2025) Speed (KPH) Speed (KPH) 2025 Business as Usual: PM peak hour car speed 2025 Do-Something: PM peak hour car speed Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 73 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 5-5 shows average bus operational speeds against time for both Business as Usual and Do- Something scenarios. This clearly shows the degradation of bus speed until the proposals are implemented, thereafter a dramatic improvement is achieved due to the installation of BRT and bus priority measures. Figure 5-5: Average Bus Speed over time Forecast PM peak Average Bus/BRT Passenger 20 Speed 18 16 Average Speed kph 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2017 2022 2025 2030 Bus BAU Bus DS Figure 5-6 shows that the implementation of the BRT scheme is forecast to reduce total vehicle mileage. When drivers choose their route, they make a balance between travel time and the cost associated with distance. Up to a point, drivers will choose to take a longer route if it saves them time. Therefore reducing congestion enables drivers to choose more direct routes reducing vehicle mileage, vehicle operating costs and air pollution. Figure 5-6: Impact of Do-Something scenario upon average vehicle speed and vehicle-kms PM peak-hr vehicle speed and total vehicle-kms 12 450,000 400,000 10 350,000 Average Vehicle Speed Total Vehicle Km's 8 300,000 250,000 6 200,000 4 150,000 100,000 2 50,000 0 - 2017 2022 2025 2030 Total Veh Km's BAU Total Veh Km's DS Ave Speed BAU Ave Speed DS Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 74 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 5.3 Forecast patronage Table 5-1 presents the forecast change in public transport trips and the number of boardings for PT routes within Chittagong from 2017 to 2030 for the two model scenarios; with and without the BRT scheme. The number of PT trips performed in Chittagong are forecast to increase by 27% between 2017 and 2025 if there is no BRT scheme, this rise is caused by population growth and rising income. However, over the same time period the number of boardings on PT trips is forecast to increase by 60%. This is because a greater number of PT trips are expected to become linked trips. Linked trips involve an interchange as a passenger boards more than one PT vehicle to complete their journey. The average number of interchanges per PT trip is expected to increase from 1.3 today to 1.6 by 2025. This is caused by population growth focused towards the periphery of the city, and the effect of worsening congestion that encourages many PT users to interchange to take advantage of routes that use faster moving roads. Introducing the BRT acts to increase the number of PT trips within the city due to mode shift from CNG, Rickshaw and private vehicles. The BRT also causes significant mode shift between PT modes as many passengers shift from human-hauler and tempo routes onto the BRT. The BRT route B15 actually replaces human-hauler route 15. Table 5-1: Forecast daily public transport trips, boardings and trip stages Ave. Increase in Increase in PT Daily PT Daily PT number of Year PT trips on boardings on Trips boardings stages per 2017 2017 trip Do Nothing 2017 1,901,331 2,444,903 1.3 2022 2,213,019 3,625,795 116% 148% 1.6 2025 2,417,581 3,916,494 127% 160% 1.6 2030 2,727,873 4,183,263 143% 171% 1.5 Do 2017 1,901,331 2,444,903 1.3 Something 2022 2,261,948 3,101,591 119% 127% 1.4 2025 2,937,808 4,288,847 155% 175% 1.5 2030 3,000,877 4,746,591 158% 194% 1.6 Table 5-2 presents the forecast number of daily boardings on the bus routes that are incorporated into the BRT. While the mode shift caused by the introduction of the BRT increases the total number of PT trips within the city by 55% by 2025, the number of boarding’s on BRT routes increases by 3.6 times (260%) this is caused by significant mode shift from Human-haulers and Tempos to BRT and an increase in the number of interchanges. Table 5-2 also presents the Peak Vehicle Requirement (PVR) for each route which has been calculated from the service plan. This assumes 12m buses are used with a capacity of 80 passengers. The PVR increases from 591 buses today to 895 in 2025. The buses that make up the current bus fleet in Chittagong have a maximum occupancy of 40 passengers. Shifting from 591 buses that carry 40 passengers to 885 buses that carry 80 passengers increases the total capacity by 200% from 23,640 today to 70,800 with the BRT in 2025. An increase in seat turnover accounts for the remaining increase in vehicle utilisation. Figure 5-7 and Figure 5-8 show the patronage on all bus routes in Chittagong (not just BRT) in the Business as Usual and Do-Something scenario for 2025 and 2030. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 75 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Table 5-2: Forecast daily boardings and PVR of Incorporated Bus Routes 2017 2025 Do-Something 2030 Do-Something Route Daily PT Number Daily PT Number Daily PT boardings Number boardings of boardings of of vehicles vehicles vehicles BRT B2 30,511 42 103,504 77 46,000 57 Routes B4 124,848 54 151,418 92 211,000 110 B6 84,702 112 214,052 88 201,000 63 B7 109,676 116 158,134 70 203,000 109 B10 62,540 84 664,221 278 767,000 304 B11 28,226 38 285,427 121 450,000 158 B15 49,056 107 234,982 119 332,000 188 B5 Not running 37,634 18 85,000 46 B8 28,226 38 22,434 13 22,000 24 B12 Not surveyed 14,194 8 17,000 10 Total 517,785 591 1,886,000 885 2,334,000 1,069 Total for each mode across the whole city Bus and BRT 768,747 823 Human-hauler 402,977 990 Tempo 157,963 1,114 Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 76 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 5-7: PM peak-hour bus and PT patronage (2025) Bus and BRT Bus and BRT Passengers Per Hour Passengers Per Hour Per Direction Per Direction 2025 Business as Usual: PM peak-hour bus and BRT patronage 2025 Do-Something: PM peak-hour bus and BRT patronage Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 77 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 5-8: PM peak-hour bus and PT patronage (2030) Bus and BRT Bus and BRT Passengers Per Hour Passengers Per Hour Per Direction Per Direction 2030 Business as Usual: PM Peak hour Patronage 2030 Do-Something: PM Peak hour Patronage Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 78 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 5-9 shows the patronage growth of the CDA Avenue corridor and the primary feeder corridors (red and blue). As the majority of material improvements to bus speeds are not present until 2025 it can be seen that the relationship between corridors alters with the blue corridor seeing higher growth than the red corridor, this is because the improvements to journey times are greater in the blue corridor than the red. Figure 5-9: Patronage Growth Across Three Primary Corridors Corridor Passengers and maximum link load for Bus/BRT lines (PM-peak hr) 25,000 250,000 214,821 20,000 200,000 Total Number of Passenegers Maximum link load (PPHPD) 172,560 15,000 150,000 10,000 100,000 78,436 5,000 50,000 - - 2022 2025 2030 Green Red Blue Total No. of Passenegers (Right Axis) 5.3.1 Mode shift to bus/BRT Figure 5-10 shows the change in transport mode share as a result of the scheme in both 2025 and 2030. This clearly shows an increase in the mode share of public transport, increasing from 52% to 61% in 2025 and from 51% to 56% in 2030. This relatively modest mode share increase is a product of a high existing mode share. In Chittagong it is recognised that the private vehicle users are difficult to shift to public transport given their mode choice is more related to symbolism and freedom associated with their position in local society, as such the mode share change of private vehicle travel is shown to only marginally decrease. This decrease may be more to do with new trips than those existing private transport users shifting to public transport. Figure 5-10: Transport Mode Share with and Without Scheme 2025 BAU 2025 Do Something Car/Moto Car/Moto rcycle, rcycle 14% 18% PT CNG/Ricks 52% haw, 24% PT, 61% CNG/Ricks haw 29% HGV, 1% HGV 1% Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 79 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 2030 BAU 2030 Do Something Car/Motor Car/Mot cycle, 20% orcycle, 21% PT, 51% PT, 56% CNG/Ricksh CNG/Ric aw, 23% kshaw, HGV, 1% 26% HGV, 1% 5.4 Modelling summary Chittagong possesses high numbers of public transport passengers who suffer low levels of service. As such, it is unsurprising that high levels of future patronage are achieved by implementing the corridor improvements. In fact, high levels of patronage would still be achieved even without improvements. The difference is in the performance of the network. The network will suffer serious degradation of speed and high levels of delay with consequent impacts upon the environment, the local economy and the wellbeing of its people. Improving the corridor benefits both bus passengers and overall network performance. These benefits are manifested in reduced delay but also significant benefits to journey time reliability, shortened journey times as well as the comfort and dignity of travel. As such there is both quantifiable and non-quantifiable benefits. The modelling and forecasting undertaken is strategic in nature and can only be seen as an indicator of what can be achieved. It is however sufficient to guide decisions on the overall benefits of the project and whether future funding should be allocated. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 80 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 6 Capital and Operational Costs Capital and operating costs calculated are commensurate with the level of detailed definition and appraisal of the scheme developed. They should be treated as preliminary only and developed further through feasibility study. 6.1 Capital cost Table 6-1 describes the capital cost of the scheme as defined. Capital costs are those required to implement the scheme as described, they are divided into short term (phase 1) expenditure and medium term (phase 2) expenditure. They include costs for development and design as well as costs for both civil engineering works and equipment. The line items described below are entirely consistent with those defined within the SUTMP. Phase Two expenditure is calculated as a stand along implementation however, we are aware that the CDA is planning on designing and building an extension to the linear flyover underneath which the scheme defined herein would be placed. In such an instance the design and implementation for that flyover should seek to incorporate the design of the public transport improvements. This might offer some capital cost savings over that outlined herein. Table 6-1: Capital Costs Phase 1: 2019-2022 Land Cost cost Cost Item Description ($ m) ($m) Capacity development 0.5 Institutional Institutional development & Bus Equipment for traffic management 0.5 industry reform Driving safety campaign 0.3 Support for bus industry reform 1.5 PT Feasibility Studies & design Line 1: CDA Avenue corridor 6.0 Short-term improvement at 12 Upgraded infrastructure, New facilities, Improve 5.0 public transport terminals management PT improvements Construct new public transport Infrastructure, Land purchase, Facilities, terminals at New Market & 7.0 22.5 Management Bahaddarhat Public transport interchange/ bus Improve stop environment/facilities 1.0 stops. 20 busiest stops Traffic management Civil works, Signal equipment, Traffic Improve junctions along corridor management, pavement widening and 26.6 pedestrian crossings, pedestrian over bridges Freight parking terminal, parking Freight parking terminal, parking ban, electronic 2.0 25.0 Complimentary corridor ban on Mooring Road booking Port gate access improvements Widening, signals, traffic management 0.5 improvement/control at 5 gates 54.8 km Central area to improve access to Footpath construction 27.4 corridor Specific parking control zones Parking policy & management 0.5 Designate spaces and charges 8 locations to improve operation of corridor and Formalise rail crossings 2.5 access to corridor Total $81.3m $47.5m Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 81 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Phase 2: 2023-2025 Cost Land cost Cost Item Description ($ m) ($m) Construction of Corridor Segregated BRT infrastructure, Traffic Improvements, Line 1: CDA Avenue management, BRT stations, ITS equipment, 229.9 73.45 corridor Ticketing equipment Bus priority on direct service Infrastructure corridors Traffic management 94.0 0 Oxygen-New Market, Dhaka Trunk Road Total $323.9m £73.45m 6.2 Operating cost Operating cost of those services to be incorporated into more formalised bus operations/BRT have been calculated using the assumption outlined in Table 6-2. Table 6-2: Operating Cost Assumptions Assumptions Units Standard Bus Bus capacity No. of seat 60 Operating Year Days 300 Operating hours per day Hours 16 Max. Passenger Number 90 Average Passenger Number 50 Economic Life (Allowed) Years 10 Route length Km From route measurements Average distance travelled by bus Km/year/bus From model annualized Ave fare increased from 9 Fare Taka Taka today to 11 Commercial Speed Km/hour From model Vehicle Costs Bus acquisition cost Tk./Bus 5,000,000 Equity/Loan ratio % 20/80 Amount of equity: Tk./Bus 1,000,000 Amount of Loan Tk./Bus 4,000,000 Repayment period years 5 Interest rate year % per year 10 Total Interest Tk./Bus 1,099,000 Bank repayment (Equated Monthly Tk./Bus 84,988 Installment) Total Capital investment in 10 years Tk./Bus 6,099,000 Book value after 10 yrs Tk./Bus 800,000 Yearly capital cost/bus (depreciation) Tk./Bus 530,000 Consumables Fuel consumption km/L 2.5 Cost of diesel Tk/L 65 Fuel consumption/year/bus L 16,200 Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 82 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Lubricant Consumption L/day/bus 0.2 Cost of lubricant Tk/L 300 Tyres Tyre per vehicle No 6 Life of tyre Month 6 Cost of a tyre Tk 25,000 Battery Battery per vehicle No 1 Life of battery Year 1 Cost of a battery Tk 15,000 Servicing Servicing/year Times 6 Cost / servicing/bus Tk 10,000 Overhauling and repair etc. Repair/overhaul/denting/painting Times 1 apart from regular Maintenance Overhauling Tk 3,00,000 Change of spares like spark plug, brake When shoe, clutch, fuel system electric 2,00,000 necessary system etc. Major Refabricating Once in 10 yrs Tk/year 40,000 Tk. 4,00,000 Garage/Terminal fee, City corp. charge Tk/year 45,000 etc. Per bus per year Tk/month/Driv Salary of Driver -2No/bus 20,000 er Tk/month/Hel Salary of Helper -2no/bus 12,000 per Salary of Cleaner -1No/bus Tk/month 10,000 2 no. Bonus per year Tk/Year 1,48,000 Yearly overhead expense/Bus Lump Sump Tk 10,000 NB. Bank interest has been considered to be 10% while the repayment period considered is 5 years. This is for calculation purpose. In practice, banks are reluctant to give loan in this sector. On the other hand, the suppliers of the bus and minibus provides supplier’s credit having repayment options starting from 2 years to 5 years. They do not calculate the interest rate, instead they fix up monthly repayment amount depending upon period of repayment and initial deposit. Whilst we recommend that formal operators seek bank loans to fund fleet purchase, government may consider special soft loan for promoting the formal services in this sector. 6.3 Financial evaluation Whilst assessment is strategic and primarily considering the performance across the whole network we have attempted to calculate operating cost, revenue and profitability by route, Table 6-3, for 2025 and 2030. In doing so, it accepted that whilst the global view on cost/revenue/profitability have some accuracy there may be less accuracy in the disaggregated figures. Nevertheless, expression in this form Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 83 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan is considered to be helpful in demonstrating a financial case for engagement of the private sector in operating contracts for the services identified. The calculations summarized in Table 6-3 show reasonable levels of profit across all routes with average profitability across all routes being in the region of 6% in 2025 increasing to 9% in 2030. Consideration of the precise level of profit belies the method of calculation at this early stage of development. However, what can be concluded is that the proposed improvements to the operation of public transport and the transport network in general create a situation where significant profit can be made from operating bus services. As such it is considered that the proposals are financial viable for private operator involvement as a contracted service and are sustainable (without need for subsidy) in the long term. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 84 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Table 6-3: Annual Operating Cost-Revenue-Profit by Route 2025 Cost in Taka 2025 Cost in USD Total Total Bank Total Bank Total Operating Profit Operating Repayme Profit Route Revenue Repayment Profit (%) Route Revenue Profit (%) Cost Cost nt (M TK) (M TK) (M TK) (M TK) (M USD) (M USD) (M USD) (M USD) B2 277.52 354 79 -155.1 -56% B2 3.5 4.4 1.0 -1.9 -56% B4 406 374 94 -62.4 -15% B4 5.1 4.7 1.2 -0.8 -15% B6 574 388 90 96.6 17% B6 7.2 4.8 1.1 1.2 17% B7 424 276 72 75.8 18% B7 5.3 3.5 0.9 0.9 18% B10 1,781 1289 284 208.5 12% B10 22.3 16.1 3.5 2.6 12% B11 765 531 123 111.4 15% B11 9.6 6.6 1.5 1.4 15% B15 630 481 121 27.9 4% B15 7.9 6.0 1.5 0.3 4% B5 Feeder 101 75 19 7.4 7% B5 Feeder 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 7% B8 Feeder 60 56 13 -9.1 -15% B8 Feeder 0.8 0.7 0.2 -0.1 -15% B12 Feeder 38 31 8 -0.4 -1% B2 Feeder 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 -1% TOTAL 5,057 3,854 902 301 6% TOTAL 63.2 48.2 11.3 3.8 6% 2030 Cost in Taka 2030 Cost in USD Total Total Bank Total Bank Total Operating Profit Operating Repayme Profit Route Revenue Repayment Profit (%) Route Revenue Profit (%) Cost Cost nt (M TK) (M TK) (M TK) (M TK) (M USD) (M USD) (M USD) (M USD) B2 123.34 263 57 -196.9 -160% B2 1.5 3.3 0.7 -2.5 -160% B4 566 445 110 10.4 2% B4 7.1 5.6 1.4 0.1 2% B6 539 276 63 200.1 37% B6 6.7 3.5 0.8 2.5 37% B7 544 428 109 7.8 1% B7 6.8 5.3 1.4 0.1 1% B10 2,057 1,406 304 347.2 17% B10 25.7 17.6 3.8 4.3 17% B11 1,207 695 158 353.7 29% B11 15.1 8.7 2.0 4.4 29% B15 890 762 188 -59.5 -7% B15 11.1 9.5 2.4 -0.7 -7% B5 Feeder 228 191 46 -9.3 -4% B5 Feeder 2.8 2.4 0.6 -0.1 -4% B8 Feeder 59 102 24 -67.5 -115% B8 Feeder 0.7 1.3 0.3 -0.8 -115% B12 Feeder 46 39 10 -3.3 -7% B2 Feeder 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 -7% TOTAL 6,258 4,606 1,069 583 9% TOTAL 78.2 57.6 13.4 7.3 9% Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 85 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan To provide a benchmark of profitability the above assumptions have been used to calculate operating cost and revenue for the existing bus network under existing (2017) conditions. This is presented in Table 6-4 below. This calculation does not attempt to replicate existing levels of profit but to provide a direct comparison of the levels of cost and profit in the existing network if new buses were bought, proper maintenance schedules were kept and a quality service offered. Table 6-4: Operating Cost-Revenue-Profit by Route 2017 2017 Cost in Taka Total Revenue Total Operating Cost Bank Repayment Profit Route Profit (%) (M TK) (M TK) (M TK) (M TK) B1 488 164 33 290 60% B2 41 123 24 -106 -259% B3 285 169 31 86 30% B5 71 119 22 -69 -97% B6 200 348 22 -170 -85% B7 224 255 48 -79 -35% B8 25 108 22 -105 -416% B10 769 670 128 -29 -4% B11 248 327 54 -133 -54% B12 5 14 2 -11 -255% TOTAL 2,356 2,297 385 -326 -14% Total Revenue Total Operating Cost Bank Repayment Profit Route Profit (%) (M USD) (M USD) (M USD) (M USD) B1 6.10 2.05 0.4 3.63 60% B2 0.51 1.53 0.3 -1.32 -259% B3 3.57 2.11 0.4 1.07 30% B5 0.89 1.48 0.3 -0.86 -97% B6 2.50 4.35 0.3 -2.12 -85% B7 2.80 3.19 0.6 -0.99 -35% B8 0.32 1.35 0.3 -1.31 -416% B10 9.62 8.38 1.6 -0.36 -4% B11 3.10 4.09 0.7 -1.67 -54% B12 0.06 0.17 0.0 -0.14 -255% TOTAL 29.46 28.71 4.8 -4.07 -14% Table 6-3 shows a great variance in profitability and loss. In part this is a product of the strategic nature of the model and individual routes profit-loss figures might be misleading. The important figure to highlight is that profit levels of -14% for the network as existing under existing conditions. This assumes that the practices required to put into place quality operations (management, maintenance and full support) together with the purchase of new vehicles. Whilst approximate, calculation shows that profit under a like for like operating regime will increase from -14% to 9% with corridor improvements in place and no increase in fare by 2030. This shows that there will remain no need for subsidy and that the proposition of operating under the improved regime will be attractive to operators. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 86 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 7 Economic Appraisal The surplus between annual passenger revenues and operational costs, as highlighted above, demonstrates the financial feasibility of the corridor improvement project. However, this does not cover all benefits as there are significant wider economic benefits which will be experienced within the study area. Further it doesn’t include recovery of the public investment in the BRT infrastructure. There are generally three forms of benefits from such a transport scheme: consumer benefit, producer benefit and externalities. In this instance, other road user benefits have been considered as internal benefits. To calculate the benefits, it is only the estimated change that is relevant and required. • Public transport consumer benefit is derived from lower cost incurred by passengers. In the absence of fare changes, this is driven purely by lower time costs. • Public transport producer benefit is the net increase in economic benefits derived by the providers of public transport, as these will be the target beneficiaries of the scheme. In the context of this project this is mainly derived from the reduction of vehicle operating costs by displacing passengers from small and older PT vehicles to more efficient BRT vehicles1. BRT operating costs have been included within the financial evaluation presented in the previous chapter, but the corresponding savings from the operation of fewer old buses, tempo and human haulers has not been accounted for, as it did not have a direct benefit in financial terms to the scheme promoter. However this does contribute towards societal benefits. • Other road user benefits generated for modes such as CNG, rickshaws, car users and trucks, such as road capacity generated by corridor improvements and increases in vehicle speeds. • Externalities are benefits transferred to society in general rather those directly involved as either consumers or producers. Examples of externalities include lower costs to other highway users, lower vehicle emissions and higher safety levels. The economic appraisal scenario follows the phased approach to implementation specified in chapter 4. Phase 1 spans from 2019 to 2022, this includes detailed engineering design and preparatory civil works. Phase 2 lasts 24 months from 2023 to 2025, it involves the majority of the capital development. The economic appraisal assumes phase 2 is followed by full and continuous operation of the BRT for the remaining forecast years, until 2040. The appraisal considers an equity value of time, this presents an average value of time across all modes. Applying a common value of time, helps to ensure that schemes that benefit everyone are pursued rather than schemes that may better benefit those with higher values of time (e.g. road schemes for car users), as per World Bank guidance2. The equity value of time starts at US$0.7 per hour in 2017 rising to US$2.6 per hour in 2040, in-line with the forecast increase in GDP per capita. 1 If transport operators respond to lower production costs by reducing passenger fares then the value of this benefit will be transferred to users as consumer surplus. 2 Kenneth M. Gwilliam 1997. The Value of Time in Economic Evaluation of Transport Projects Lessons from Recent Research. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 87 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan The IMF forecast GDP growth for Bangladesh to be 7% per annum between 2017 and 20213. Considering this growth forecast and World Bank guidance on discounting costs4, a discount rate of 14% is applied. 7.1 Public Transport Consumer benefit The modelling exercise shows us that many journeys will enjoy lower journey times using the BRT corridor. Figure 5-5 shows how the BRT will deliver a marked improvement in PT speeds. Total journey time savings in each of the modelled time horizons are presented in Table 7-1 below. Table 7-1: Journey time savings for PT users 2022 2025 2030 Do Do Do Do Min Saving Do Min Saving Do Min Saving Something Something Something Average journey time, 30 29 -1 34 15 -19 55 19 36 during PM-peak (mins) Total annual journey 176 178 2 217 116 101 403 155 248 time (Million hours) The implementation of the scheme is forecast to produce a total of 3,467 million hours savings between the years 2019 and 2040. Assuming a rate of increase on the value of time in real terms5 will yield total benefits with a Present Value (PV) of approximately US$1,283 million. This constitutes 66% of total benefits (see Figure 7-1). 7.2 Public Transport Producer benefit The benefit attributable to a reduction in vehicle operating costs has been calculated based on the forecast transfer of trips to BRT, and the estimated resulting reduction in bus, tempo and human- hauler vehicle kilometres. The Bangladesh Road Research Laboratory provides operating costs by mode6. For the PT operators, the implementation of the scheme will save a total of 1,346 million veh-kms between 2019 and 2040. This equates to a PV of US$130 million attributable to the reduction in vehicle operating cost. This constitutes 7% of total benefits (see Figure 7-1). 3 International Monetary Fund 2016. World Economic Outlook Database http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx 4 World Bank 2016. Discounting Costs and Benefits in Economic Analysis of World Bank Projects 5 Historic real GDP and population growth rates were used to forecast the real VoT for all forecast years. (Historic GDP growth rates are sourced from Annual Economic Affairs Performance Review 2008/09, Ministry of Financed , Planning and Economic Development) (Population growth are sourced from World Bank Development Indicators, 2010) 6 Bangladesh Road Research Laboratory (BRRL) and Roads and Highways Department (RHD) 2017. Review of existing road user cost estimation procedure used in RHD and update the same under BRRL during the year 2016-2017. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 88 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 7.2.1 Other road users Other road users, such as car, CNG, Rickshaw and truck users, are additional beneficiaries of the Corridor Improvement Study. While the installation of the BRT lane will reduce the number of lanes available for general traffic to use, improvements to the road surface, junction control and the containment of most public transport services to the BRT lane act to increase capacity for general traffic. As a consequence average vehicle speeds (in the PM-peak hour) for car users are expected to increase from 6.9Kph in 2030 to 9.8Kph. The combined journey time savings across car, CNG, Rickshaw and truck are expected to total 1,219 million hours between 2019 and 2040, with an associated saving of 1,341 million veh-km, attributable to more direct journeys. Together these equate to a PV benefit of US$507 million. 7.3 External benefits 7.3.1 GHG reduction As highlighted above, the Corridor Improvement Scheme is expected to reduce the number of vehicle-kms for each mode: • For PT vehicles, this is attributable to a shift from small vehicles such as the existing buses, tempo and human-haulers to large buses • For other road users (car, CNG, Rickshaw, truck) this is attributable to faster travel speeds encouraging drivers to choose more direct journeys The reduction in vehicle-kms generate an associated reduction in Green House Gas (GHG) emissions as less fossil fuel is burned. Considering the average GHG emissions per vehicle-kilometre for each mode, we forecast scheme implementation to save a total 729,000 tonnes of CO2equivalent between the years 2019 and 2040. The World Bank7 calculate the social value of each tonne of CO2e saved to be US$30 in 2015 rising to US$80 in 2050. The application of this value yields a PV benefit of US$7 million between the years attributable to GHG reduction. 7.3.2 Road traffic accidents The reduction in vehicle-kms will also yield a reduction in the number of traffic accidents. The Bangladesh Road Research Laboratory (BRRL) calculate the current accident rate for Bangladesh to be 101 Killed and Seriously Injured (KSI) people per Billion vehicle-kms8. BRRL consider each of these instances to have a social cost of US$47,000. Considering economic growth this value is forecast to increase to US$157,000 by 2040. The Corridor Improvement Scheme is expected to save a total of 2,687 million vehicle-kms between 2019 and 2040, this should translate into a reduction of 277 road traffic KSI accidents during this time period. This translates into a PV benefit of US$6 million. 7 http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/brief/integrating-climate-change-world-bank 8 Bangladesh Road Research Laboratory (BRRL) and Roads and Highways Department (RHD) 2017. Review of existing road user cost estimation procedure used in RHD and update the same under BRRL during the year 2016-2017. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 89 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan The total PV benefit that combines the producer surplus, consumer surplus and external benefits is US$1,934 million. Figure 7-1: Percentage of Total PV benefits (US$1,934 million) 7.4 Project costs The capital investment is US$128.8 million including land cost for phase 1 (2019 and 2022) and US$444.8 million including land cost for phase 2 (2023-2025). Considering a maintenance cost of 2% of capital, the total cost incurred over the course of the appraisal period is forecast to be US$698 million. Considering the discount rate of 14% derives a PV cost of US$380 million. 7.5 Net economic benefits The table below provides an overview of the main economic appraisal indicators. Figure 7-2: Economic Appraisal Indicators (2019 – 2040) Appraisal indicator Value BCR 5.1 Net Present Value (NPV) (million US$) 1,554 IRR (%) 41% The economic appraisal indicators highlighted in the table above show that the scheme will: • Generate total Net Present Value (NPV) of US$1,554 million indicating the total PV of benefits exceeds the PV of costs. An NPV value greater than zero is indicative of an economically feasible project. • Produce a Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) of 5.1, indicating that every US$1.00 expended on the project as costs will yield US$5.10 in benefits. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 90 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan • Have an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 41% indicating that NPV and BCR will remain above zero and unity, respectively, below discount rates of this (high) value. The Figure below presents the discounted cumulative benefits and costs in PV terms over the horizon of the forecast period (2019-2040). This includes maintenance of BRT running tracks and stations, calculated at 2% of capital costs annually. Capital costs for fleet are also borne within the cost per km figures. Figure 7-3: Cumulative Discounted Benefits and Costs (2019-2040) Cumulative benefits and costs, discounted (2019-2040) 2500 Cumulative Presenet Value Benefits and costs (million US$) 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2020 2019 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Year Cumulative Benefit (USD M) Cumulative Cost (USD M) Figure 7-3 reveals that: • The project costs are front ended; high for the initial years and decelerate over the life- cycle of the project. This is typical of infrastructure projects which require initial and significant capital infrastructure costs. • The project benefits are zero in the initial years as phase 1 of the scheme only becomes operational in the year 2022 and phase 2 operational in 2025. • The economic breakeven year is between years 2027 and 2028, as depicted by the intersection between the benefit and cost curves. It is therefore important that the project life extends beyond this date. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 91 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 7.6 Sensitivity analysis To test the sensitivity of the economic analysis a 20% reduction in journey time savings and/or 20% increase in capital costs have been analysed and the results are summarised in the table below. Table 7-2: Economic Appraisal Indicators (2019 – 2040) - Sensitivity Analysis 20% Red. Time & operator 20% Red. time & operator Appraisal indicator 20% Inc. Capital Costs Savings AND 20% Inc. Savings Capital Cost BCR 4.1 4.2 3.4 NPV (million US$) 1,167 1,477 1,091 IRR (%) 36% 37% 33% Table 7-2 reveals that with both a 20% reduction in journey time savings benefits and a 20% increase in capital costs, the Corridor Improvement Project BRT Route will remain economically feasible, with a BCR of 3.4, NPV of $1,091 million and an IRR of 33%. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 92 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 8 Social Impact Assessment 8.1 Impacts on commuters As part of the Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan, this project underwent numerous meetings with key stakeholders, visioning workshops and focus group discussions with primary commuters particularly focusing on women, student and disabled group. The vision that we achieved by the thorough consultation with the stakeholder groups is as follows: People’s city, people’s transport The statement can be further elaborated to a transport system that provides integrated public transport, with walking and cycling provision in a safe, accessible, efficient and environmentally friendly manner for the people in Chittagong. Currently around 8+ million residents live in Chittagong, the second most developed city in Bangladesh right after the capital, Dhaka. The current public transportation system deals with multiple operational and safety inadequacies that eventually pushes its citizens towards the use of private vehicles and relying on public transport as the last resort for mode of commuting. The study team conducted a survey on the challenges faced by the respondents on different modes of public transport and the result showed traffic congestion, poor comfort, overloading and improper boarding and poor safety as the key reasons that the respondents think of as the challenges that they face when using public transport. On a fundamental level, the project aims at improving the commuting options and providing BRT as a new mode of transport, while also focusing on the necessary institutional actions needed to ensure a better traffic management system in Chittagong. The fare structure is comparatively low in comparison to neighbouring developing nations and therefore, the study elaborates on ways to mitigate the issues faced by commuters while traveling. Alongside that, the project also aims at providing a better commuting option particularly to the women and disabled groups. Upon stakeholder consultation, there were several issues that came forward as leading causes that affect the traffic system in Chittagong. From an institutional perspective, Chittagong Metropolitan Police (CMP), the traffic management unit felt that illegal parking on the streets, boarding and dropping off passengers by public transport drivers at undesignated space and street hawkers occupying the roads and pedestrian walking facilities are the leading causes of traffic congestion in Chittagong. CMP has also complained about the private buses not complying with the permit route as issued by the road transport committee. From a consumer perspective, issues of overcrowded vehicles, picking up and dropping off passengers while at motion, poor comfort, poor safety and long duration of travel are the leading issues that needs to be solved. Commuters with physical disability have complained about the lack of access in public transport which results in them commuting in CNGs and Rickshaws that are significantly more expensive than the former options. Women group had complained about lack of safety, eve-teasing, and poor comfort based on limited seats allocated for women as unique issues other than the ones mentioned above. With the implementation of the BRT, several of the issues faced by both the institutional and consumer stakeholders will be resolved. It primarily reduces the long travel time and traffic congestion in comparison to other existing solutions. There will be an established pick up and drop off point that will ensure better access to all the consumer while also providing better control to the Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 93 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan traffic management unit. Issues of poor comfort, poor safety and harassment faced by women will also be reduced with the introduction of BRT based on the procurement of vehicles and proper training of drivers and conductors. Moreover, the design of the proposed new system will be based on national and international guidance on design for people with limited mobility. The principle of at-grade access has been adopted, except where this presents an adverse effect upon safety or an unacceptable compromise upon capacity. Where at-grade access is not possible alternative provision will be made for the mobility impaired. 8.2 Provision of transport supportive of women The study team had conducted a women only traveller interview survey with 616 respondents and questioned women on their methods of travel, purpose of travel, their opinions about travel and what they considered to be the main challenges for women while travelling in Chittagong. The following Figure 8-1 shows the segregation between the choice of main mode of transport between male and female. Figure 8-1: Main mode of transport choices based on gender Main mode by gender (%) 100% 0% 0% 10% 90% 28% 6% 80% 8% 70% 9% Intercity bus and train 60% 8% CNG/Rickshaw 50% Private transport 40% 76% Tempo 30% Bus and human hauler 54% 20% 10% 0% Female Male While 76% of male users prefer using bus and human hauler, we can see that the preference of this mode is significantly lower in comparison to 54% by women, despite bus and human hauler being the cheapest mode of choice among the list mentioned. This overall suggests that women pay higher than men when it comes to commuting in the city. This additional payment is in order to mitigate the challenges every day that a woman faces while traveling. Figure 8-2 shows the breakdown of travel by women based on the companion during commuting, if any. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 94 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 8-2: Women are usually accompanied with when traveling Who are you travelling with today? 60% 50% 50% 40% 30% 21% 20% 10% 9% 10% 6% 5% 0% Women, in general, perform a multitude of tasks in her travel during the day, including traveling for work, taking children to school, health reasons and other issues. Figure 8-3 shows the travel segregation between two genders based on activities. Figure 8-3: Travel segregation between two genders based on activities Main journey purpose by gender 100% 11% 7% 90% 2% 3% 3% 80% 8% 22% Education 70% Health 60% 35% Religious 50% Home 40% Shopping 30% 65% Social 20% 39% Work 10% 0% Female Male Taking public transportation poses a challenge due to various reasons and when the respondents were asked to identify such challenges that they faced regularly, a comprehensive picture of the issues in the current transport system was identified and the study team is proposing solutions to mitigate such issues. Figure 8-4 shows the challenges in the use of public transport by women while Figure 8-5 highlights on the reasons why women do not prefer the use of public transport. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 95 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 8-4: The challenges in the use of public transport by women What do you think is the biggest challenge facing women in terms of public transport? None of the above (describe) Problems with driver 4% 4% Cost Lack of space for 1% children/shopping/lu ggage 6% Some drivers refuse to carry women 6% Harassment/problem Lack of s with other comfortable/reserve passengers d seating 19% 60% Figure 8-5: shows the reasons why women do not prefer the use of public transport Top three reasons you did not use public transport today? (In order of first choice) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1st Choice 2nd Choice 3rd Choice The two figures above clearly highlight that discomfort and lack of seats are the primary issues that women face while using public transport. The reason being that women have a minimum fixed number of seats allocated in the front and next to the driver. These seats are right above the engine and is warmer than the other seats in the bus. Furthermore, women face harassment when they sit in the ‘undesignated’ space even though there is a provision for that. The issue of speed/reliability addresses the pickup and drop off of passengers while the transport is still in motion. This makes it really difficult especially when women are carrying children or bags with them. Eve teasing and cat Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 96 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan calling is another issue that women face regularly. It is primarily because of having untrained conductor and drivers while male passengers are also involved in the act at times. The new system is designed for ease of boarding and alighting with buses and the stations at the same level. This makes it easier to load and unload passenger. Where necessary, drop down ramps may be provided. The system is focused on customer service and seeks to address the issue of encumbrances of passengers by provision of space for cargo. Procurement of new buses will also address the issue of uncomfortable seats and proper training of drivers and conductors can mitigate the issues of harassment faced by women in public transport. Lastly, there has also been complaints of no appropriate routes as many buses do not actually follow the route permit provided by RTC. This issue will also be addressed once the BRT lines are established. 8.3 Impacts on land and settlements along the corridor The study proposes the green BRT line (Kalurghat to Patenga) to be implemented in the short term phase. Land acquisition and resettlement is dependent on the completion of the proposed elevated expressway by Chittagong Development Authority. If the elevated expressway is developed, then there will be sufficient road space to implement a BRT corridor without the need of resettlement or land acquisition. Therefore, the proposed BRT is envisioned to enhance the operations of the establishments along the route and within its influence area. Its minimal requirement for right-of way acquisition and will not affect any structure. Furthermore, the BRT corridor will result in further economic prosperity as less affluent citizens from the south can now travel to other ends of the north at a faster and cheaper mode of transport and this was not possible in the existing scenario. Land take of 16.1 hectares is required for the depots however these will be located outside of the continuous urban area where undeveloped land can be found. End-of route terminals also require land take of 8.25 hectares which may require purchase of developed land. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 97 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 8-6: Proposed BRT corridors alongside the household income level 8.4 Public transport regulations Elaboration regarding the formation of a new public transport authority in Chittagong is mentioned in the seventh deliverable of this project titled “Bus restructure and institutional assessment.” The aim of the study is to propose a public transport authority in the short term that will eventually become the urban transport authority in the long term. Such a coordinating authority does not currently exist in Chittagong. The primary proposition is for a route to be operated by a single company with the current bus owners having the company share based on the current market share on the particular route. The implementation of the BRT will provide the government an opportunity to rationalize the existing public transportation system and reduce, if not completely eradicate, illegal operators while also deal with the reckless driving on the roads because of severe competition. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 98 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 8.5 Impacts on public transport operations The implementation of the proposed BRT as a trunk line mass transportation system will re-define the role of the current public transportation modes plying the route. The key transmission channels of the impact on the sector will be through access to employment and assets. The impacts as articulated during the stakeholder engagement activities include: 1) Reduced passenger volume for bus routes outside of the BRT corridor; 2) Reduction in the usage of Tempo, CNG, Rickshaw and Human haulers and to an extent private vehicles as a mode of transport, 3) Dislocation of drivers and operators; Of these concerns, the economic dislocation of drivers and operators of different modes of transport due to perceived loss of livelihood was considered the most pressing, thus need to be managed properly. 8.5.1 Bus Industry Based on BRTA schedules and our survey work 11 bus routes were identified to currently operate in Chittagong, which are listed below. As per the study team’s suggestion, the Green BRT corridor (Kalurghat to Patenga) needs to be implemented in the short term. 9 of the 11 bus routes (highlighted in yellow) will be affected by the introduction of BRT. The bus sector reform plan recommends the consolidation of small operators into larger bus companies. This will help in a better management, increase safety as buses will not be competing against each other and the quality of buses will also improve. No. Route B1 New Bridge - New Market B2 Kalurghat - New Market B3 New Market - Nandir Hat B4 Bhatiari - New Market B5 Airport-New Market B6 Sea Beach - Lal Digir Par B7 Bhatiari - Kotwali Moor B8 Oxygen-New Market B10 Kalurghat - Sea Beach B11 Bhatiari - Sea Beach B12 Pahartoli - Old Rail Station 8.5.2 Rickshaw Industry Rickshaws currently operate all around the city. While it is one of the most ineffective mode of transport in terms of size against capacity ratio, it also one of the most expensive mode of transport if fare per kilometre travelled is taken into consideration. The study team recommends rickshaws may only be restricted once quality public transport alternative is established. If the BRT tackles the primary issues of comfort and safety faced by women, a significant population are expected to shift from using rickshaws to BRT which will affect the rickshaw pullers economically as well. Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 99 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 8.5.3 CNG Industry As per the study, 20% of females use CNG as a transport mode when traveling for work. For other trip purposes, CNGs are mostly used when attending social events, health reasons or religious events. The introduction of BRT will reduce the percentage of users traveling to work via CNG and less so for other purposes. While impacts will be significant, this will be the least affected industry with the introduction of BRT. 8.5.4 Human Hauler Industry As per BRTA schedules and on-street surveys, the following human haulers routes operate in Chittagong. Similar to the bus industry, upon implementation of the Green BRT line (Kalurghat to Patenga), the routes marked in yellow will be affected. If there is a significant reduction in demand, the human haulers can operate in other routes. No. Route H1 Kalurghat Bus Station - New Market H2 Kalurghat - New Market (Via Garibulla Shah and Tigerpass) H3 Fatehabad - New Market H4 New Bridge - Ananda Bazar H5 Bishwabidyalaya - New Market H6 Modhunaghat - Amtala H7 Kumira - New Market H8 Sitakund - Shuvopur H9 Halishahar B-Block - Patenga No 15 H10 Kalurghat - Katgar H11 Bhatiari - Baddarhat H12 Alongkar Mor - Patenga No 15 H13 Bhatiari - Sea Beach H14 Kuwaish College - Tigerpass H15 Bhatiari - Old Railway Station H16 Sagorika Stadium - Firinghee Bazar Ghat 8.5.5 Tempo Industry As per BRTA schedules and on-street surveys, the following tempo routes currently operate in Chittagong. Eight of the routes will be affected by the introduction of Green BRT Line (Kalurghat to Patenga). A number of tempos are currently used as feeder routes that better penetrate housing estates, a certain population will prefer this mode over BRT depending on the residential addresses of the commuters. No. Route T1 Oxygen-Cement Crossing T2 Oxygen - Sea Beach T3 Oxygen - Halishahar B-Block T4 Saltgola Crossing - Khalurghat T5 Kalurghat - Amtala T6 A K Khan - Kazir Dewri Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 100 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan T7 Karnaphuli 3rd Bridge - Kadamtoli T8 Baddarhat - Kanungopara T9 Fakirer Tek - New Market T10 Fakirhat - Kadamtoli T11 Madam Bibir Hat - Amtala T12 Madam Bibir Hat - BRTC T13 Pakkar Matha - Nimtoli Biswa Rd T14 Modhunaghat - Cinema Palace T15 Baddarhat - Kotwali T16 Fatehabad - Kotwali T17 Tigerpass - New Bridge T18 Modhunaghat - Oxygen 8.6 Addressing economic dislocation The drivers are considered more vulnerable to economic dislocation than the operators. Their capacity to adopt to this reform in the public transportation sector is potentially hampered by low levels of education (elementary and high-school levels) and lack of alternative skills. Such a situation could translate to widespread displacement of this sector and render their families vulnerable to negative socio-economic consequences. Governing bodies should decide provide alternate training and employability opportunities to the affected group in order to ensure socio economic stability. Table 8-1: Summary of potential social impacts of the proposal Direction of Intensity of Stakeholder potential Description of impacts impact impact (+/-) - Reduction of in-vehicle travel time - Medium to - Reduction of waiting time due to Commuters Positive high high frequency of buses - Better customer service, comfort and safety - Easier boarding/alighting since bus floor is at the same level as - Medium to station Senior Citizens Positive high - Senior citizens’ discount can be integrated in the ticketing system - Easier boarding/alighting since bus floor is at the same level as Persons with Disability - Medium to station Positive (PWD) high - Safer and more convenient walk to the stations due to wider, unobstructed sidewalks - Protection from undue physical - Medium to harassment due to cramped Women/Working mothers Positive high space inside the public transportation vehicle Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 101 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan - Enhanced convenience, comfort and safety in comparison to the existing public transport options Business - Improvement of ambient air establishments/Residents - Medium to Positive quality along the corridor due to along the proposed Route/ high the reduction of PUV units Community-at-large Business establishments - Improvement accessibility to business establishments, along the proposed BRT Positive - Medium potentially improvement Route business - Opportunity to rationalize Government (as regulator of Positive - Medium public transportation system public transport system) and better traffic management - Formalization of sector enables Bus Operators Positive - High increased profits - Potential loss of income Rickshaw Drivers Negative - High because of transition to feeder routes - Female working group will shift to BRT once the challenges are CNG Negative - Medium mitigated. But other demands will be less unaffected - 10 out of 16 routes will be Human Haulers Negative - High affected by the Green BRT lines - 8 out of 12 routes will be affected. The impact will be Tempo Negative - Medium lower than Human Haulers because Tempos usually operate in feeder routes as well Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 102 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 9 Conclusion In conclusion, this deliverable proposes BRT corridors in Chittagong whose alignment is considered the most pertinent to support economic, social and environmental development of the city. The implementation plan is divided in two phases. The first phase (2019-2022) will focus on the feasibility study, detail design, institutional reforms necessary for the BRT corridors and the preparatory infrastructural development. The second phase (2023-2025) will see the construction of BRT corridors at the heart of Chittagong. The rationale behind corridor selection is based on the length and width of roads, population density, major employment centers, highest passenger demand, average PT speed, number of facilities served and length of road liable to flooding. Based on the points mentioned above, the technical team has identified the corridor from the Airport to Kalurghat which follows M.A. Aziz Road, CDA Avenue and Chittagong-Cox's Bazar Highway (Arkan Road), as well as spur from Tigerpass to New Market following Station Road. This is currently the busiest PT corridor in Chittagong, and most of the route provides ample width within which to insert BRT lanes and stations, especially considering that much of the route is supplemented with an elevated expressway. The capital required for the implementation of this project will be USD 81.3 Million in first phase, with additional USD 47.5 Million spent on land acquisition. In the second phase, the capital required is USD 371.4 Million, plus an additional USD 73.45 Million will be spent on land acquisition as well. Against this heavy investment, the economic appraisal shows considerable benefits, such that the scheme has a BCR of 5.1 and IRR of 41%. The social impact assessment also ensures that the project will help women, disabled, elderly and children population. It will help grow economic prosperity in the underdeveloped areas while ensuring minimum losses to the existing transport operators in the city. The next step is to undertake a full feasiblity study for the corridor improvement scheme this would include: • Stakeholder consultation • Detailed passenger demand forecasting and service plan • Operational and managerial plan • Institutional arrangements • Vehicle specification, ticketing and ITS • Detailed engineering designs for running ways, stations, terminals and depots • Traffic management scheme • Integration with land use and transit orientated designed • Incorporation of green space, SUDs, and other ecological design features • Environmental impact assessment • Costings and financial evaluation • Implementation plan, communication plan Corridor Improvement Pre-Feasibility Study Page 103