‫‪52123‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺳﺘﺔ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﹼ ﺓ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺳﺘﺔ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎﹰ ﺳﺘﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺻﺎﻋﺪﺓ ‪ −‬ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺼﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ‪ ،‬ﻭﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‪ − 1‬ﲟﺴﺎﻋﻲ ﺗﻔﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﻭﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ‬ ‫ﺫﻭ ﺻﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻮﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﲟﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫)‪ ،(ESMAP‬ﺷﺮﻋﺖ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺑﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺒﻠﺪﺍﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻓﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫)‪ ،(GHG‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﺯﺩﻳﺎﺩ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﹰ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﹼﻒ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﻗﻠﻢ‪ .‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﻟﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺟﺘﺬﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺴﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﻟﺒﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺑﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﹼ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﺎﳋﺒﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺘﺔ ﻣﻌﺎ ﹰ ﹼ‬ ‫ﺗﺒﲔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﻨﺎﺣﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ‬ ‫ﹼ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﺠﻢ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﻧﺨﺮﺍﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﹼ ﺓ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺘﻤﺜﹼﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳋﻄﻂ ﻭﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻳﺴﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺪﺍﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﻳﺤﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺣﺒﺔ ﻟﻪ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮﺹ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻫﺎ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺛﻮﺭﺓ ﺧﻀﺮﺍﺀ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﻤﺎﻋﻴﺎ ﹰ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ]ﺃﻱ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ )‪ (RE‬ﻭﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ )‪ [(EE‬ﻭﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺟﺂﺕ )ﺃﻱ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﳌ ﹸﺴﺘﻐﻠﹼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﻟﻠﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ(‪،‬‬ ‫ﳑﺎ ﻳﺴﻔﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺛﺮﻭﺓ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﻴﺢ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﻧﻔﻊ ﻋﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﻤﺜﹼﻞ ﺍﻟﻬﺪﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺧﻠﻖ ﺳﺒﻞ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﺨﻄﻰ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ‪ .‬ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ‪:‬‬ ‫‪1‬ﺟﺮﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻵﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻮﻟﻨﺪﺍ )‪.(2009‬‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﺃﺻﺒﺢ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﻭﺍﺿﺤﺎ ﹰ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻞ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺪﺃ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻨﻬﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺧﺬﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻈﻬﻮﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﲢﻘﹼ ﻖ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺗﺒﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﺟﻨﺒﺎ ﹰ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺟﻨﺐ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﻼﺕ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻴﺌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﺘﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺼﲔ ﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﻓﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻳﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺣﺪ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﳑﺎ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺃﺩﻧﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻲ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ 20‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺎﺋﺔ ﻭﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﻫﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻴﺢ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮ ﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‪ :‬ﺍﳊﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻗﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﺄﻫﻴﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﺃﺩﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺤﻢ ﺍﳊﺠﺮﻱ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻭﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ ﺇﻟﺰﺍﻣﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻸﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺰﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﰎ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺳﺐ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻﻼﺕ )ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﲢﺴﲔ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺒﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﻮﻗﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻﻼﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ(‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺒﺼﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﹼ‬ ‫ﺗﺘﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺈﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﻧﻈﺮﺓ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﻭﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻭﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻛﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺟﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻲ ﻭﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﲤﻮﻳﻠﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼﹰ ﻋﻦ‬ ‫ﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺟﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺘﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ ﺟﻤﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ‪” :‬ﺍﻹﻗﺤﺎﻣﺎﺕ“ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺤﺪﺩﺓ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺟﻨﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ ﻹﺻﻼﺡ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺗﻨﺠﻢ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﻟﻠﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻭﲢﺴﲔ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺟﺔ ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻐﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﹰ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺠﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻠﻖ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﺗﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ )‪ (DSM‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﰎ ﲢﺪﻳﺪﻫﺎ ﻛﺄﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺪﺗﻪ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻣﻮﺭ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﺃﺳﻔﺮﺕ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺳﻔﺮﺕ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﹰ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫)‪ (i‬ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻧﺎﺟﺤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺳﺒﻞ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻛﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ‬ ‫)‪ (ii‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻔﻴﺪﺓ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﹶ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺳﺘﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻭﻝ ﻧﺎﰋ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﲔ ‪ −‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺘﲔ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻴﺘﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺳﺎﻧﺪﻫﺎ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﻋﻢ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺒﲔ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 1‬ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﻭﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﳋﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺘﺔ‪ .‬ﹼ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺇﺑﺮﺍﺯ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺍﺻﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻣﻊ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺃﺛﻨﺎﺀ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺳﺘﺼﻒ ﻣﻄﺒﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫|‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ :1‬ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﳕﻮﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺗﻨﺴﻴﻖ‪/‬ﺭﺍﺋﺪ ﻭﻃﻨﻲ‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﻭﻟﻴﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻊ ﺳﺒﻞ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﳕﻮﺫﺟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﻴﺔ‪/‬ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺔ )ﻭﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺤﻠﻴﺔ(‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪/‬ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﳌﺪﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﻠﺪ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺧﻄﻮﺓ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺧﻄﻮﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ‪.1‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﳕﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻫﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﺒﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺃﻱ ﺑﲔ ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺳﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺄﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﲢﺪﺩ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺼﺪﺭ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻣﹼ ﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﲢﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﺼﺎﺣﺒﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﹰ ﺗﺜﺮﻱ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﲢﺪﺩ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻀﻊ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻡ ﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ )‪ (NAMAS‬ﻭﺗﺘﻴﺢ ﺇﻃﺎﺭﺍ ﹰ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﺑﻼﻍ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺟﺘﺬﺍﺏ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻮﻓﺎﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺨﺮﻃﺖ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺘﺔ ﺟﻤﻴﻌﺎ ﹰ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻲ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺘﻪ )‪.(2007−2006‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﻊ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﳕﻮﻫﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺃﺛﺮ ﻓﻲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﺗﺴﺎﻉ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻘﺮﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻪ ‪ −‬ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻭﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﲔ‬ ‫‪ −‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﻭﺿﻌﻬﺎ ﲟﺎ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻊ ﺃﻭﺿﺎﻋﻪ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺸﻴﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﻖ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺷﺌﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺀ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ‬ ‫)ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪.(1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫|‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﹼ ﺓ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ :1‬ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺷﺌﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺳﺖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﳕﻮﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺷﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻧﻮﺍﺣﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﺇﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﺄﻥ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ ‪ −‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﻭﻣﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺻﻐﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻭﻃﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺡ ﻭﺗﺴﺨﲔ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﻼﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻳﺜﺎﻧﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺦ‪ −...‬ﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻐﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺨﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ ﻟﺘﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺻﻐﻴﺮﺓ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻗﻮﺭﻧﺖ ﺑﺎﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺣﺪﺩﺕ ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻭﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺑﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺡ‪ .‬ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻳﺜﺎﻧﻮﻝ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺴﺎﻧﺪ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﻬﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﺼﲔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ‪ 8‬ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪ 15‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺎﺋﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 2020−2008‬ﻭﻳﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﻭﻣﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺻﻐﻴﺮ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﳋﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳ ﹰ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺑﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺡ ﺗﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﺼﲔ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﹰ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ )ﺃﻱ‪ :‬ﺃﺟﻬﺰﺓ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺑﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺡ ﻭﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﻭﻣﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺻﻐﻴﺮ ﻭﺳﺨﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﻼﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻴﺔ(‪ .‬ﻭﺗﻬﺪﻑ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﺨﻠﻴﺺ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺑﺤﻠﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2050‬ﻭﻳﺠﺮﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺨﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﻟﺘﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ 4‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺎﺋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﲟﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﻣﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ ﺑﺤﻠﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ .2013‬ﻭﺗﺨﻄﻂ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ‪ Eskom‬ﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﻣﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺗﺴﺨﲔ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻣﻨﺰﻝ ﻭﻣﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺫﺭﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺴﺎﻧﺪ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻔﺔ ﺭﺳﻮﻡ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻛﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺮﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ ‪ feed−in tariffs‬ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﻣﺘﺴﻊ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻧﻮﺍﺣﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻭﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪/‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﹰ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ‪ .‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ ﻳﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍ ﹰ ﺃﺭﺧﺺ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﻗﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺻﺎﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﻨﺰﻟﻲ ﻭﻏﻴﺮ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺰﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﲔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﻔﺮ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻧﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻋﻦ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﻳﺎ ﹰ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﻴﺮ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﹰ ﻣﻜﺎﺳﺐ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻗﺪ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻘﻞ ﻭﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﳌﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻟﺰﺍﻣﻴﺔ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻭﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻘﻴﺾ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺣﺪﺩﺕ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻭﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻬﺎ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﻴﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ ﻭﻧﻈﺮﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﹼﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻭﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺷﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺑﻄﺎﺀ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺟﺔ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻭﺍﳊﺮﺍﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻐﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺟﻤﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﻭﺗﺪﻫﻮﺭ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺑﺎﺕ )‪ (REDD‬ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﳑﺎ ﻳﺘﻴﺢ ﺣﺎﻓﺰﺍ ﹰ ﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺪﺍﻣﺔ ﻭﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﰎ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺑﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻﻼﺕ ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻐﻼﻟﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻﻼﺕ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻﻼﺕ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﺭ )ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ( ﻭﺧﻠﻖ ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﻟﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﳉﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺪﻥ ﻭﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﳊﻀﺮﻱ )ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ ﻭﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ( ﻭﲢﺴﲔ ﺻﻴﺎﻧﺔ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺒﺎﺕ ﻭ‪/‬ﺃﻭ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ )ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ ﻭﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ( ﻭﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﻮﺟﻬﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺒﺎﺻﺎﺕ )ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ(‪.‬‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻭﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺳﺒﻞ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻀﺎ ﹰ ﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻣﺤﺎﻭﺭ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺷﺎﺋﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻫﺬﺍ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﲟﺎ ﻳﺘﻼﺀﻡ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺼﲔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﺑﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﻭﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺗﺼﺪﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎﺕ ”ﺧﻀﺮﺍﺀ“ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺝ ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻄﻂ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﻣﻨﻬﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻼﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻭﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩ ﺍﻷﺣﻔﻮﺭﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﺫ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﺴﻴﻖ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﲔ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻭﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﻗﺪﹸﻣﺎ ﹰ‪ .‬ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﻳﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﲢﺴﲔ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺍﺀ ﻫﺎﻣﺔ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﻀﻲﹼ ﹸ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ 12‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺎﺋﺔ ﺑﺤﻠﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2015‬ﲢﺪﻳﺎ ﹰ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﹰ ﻭﺟﺮﻯ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻧﻈﺮﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻘﻴﺾ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺟﻤﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﻭﺗﺪﻫﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﻓﺰﺍ ﹰ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﹰ ﻭﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﻧﺸﻮﺀ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺟﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﻃﻠﺐ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺟﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻧﻘﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﹰ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻭﺍﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﻬﻨﺪ ﺍﺣﺘﺎﺟﺖ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﺗﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺔ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﺣﺘﺎﺟﺖ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺪﻋﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺑﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪/‬ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﺎﺟﺖ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺪﺍﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺪﻣﺞ ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ‪ :‬ﺍﳋﻄﻂ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫|‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ‪.2‬‬ ‫ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﹰ‪ ،‬ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺮﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺣﺎﺳﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﳒﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺖ‪:‬‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﺎ ﹰ ﺫﺍ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﳌﺘﺴﻢ ﺑﺎﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﺼﺎﻣﻴﻢ ﻭﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺴﺘﺠﻴﺐ ﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﺴﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ” ﹼ‬ ‫ﻳﺒﲔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺭ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ“ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﻣﺘﺼﻮﺭﺓ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎ ﹰ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺗﻌﺎﻭﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺎﻻﻟﺘﺰﺍﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺭﺍﺋﺪ ﻣﺤﻠﻲ — ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﳉﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺷﺨﺺ — ﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻪ ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻋﻮﺓ ﻟﻌﻘﺪ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ ﺩﺧﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﻄﻼﻉ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺗﻨﺴﻴﻖ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ ﻛﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﳒﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺃﺻﺒﺢ ﻣﻨﺪﻭﺑﻮﻥ ﻋﻦ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬ ‫ﻭﻭﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ‪ −‬ﻣﻦ ﺑﲔ ﺁﺧﺮﻳﻦ ‪ −‬ﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﺗﻨﺴﻴﻖ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺗﺘﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺻﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﺎﻥ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ )ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ .(2‬ﻓﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﺎﻥ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺃﺻﻼﹰ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ‬ ‫ﺟﺮﻯ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺃﺛﻨﺎﺀ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻀﻤﹼ ﻦ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻨﺪﻭﺑﲔ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﲔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺐ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻭﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺛﻴﻘﺔ‪/‬ﻭﺛﺎﺋﻖ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫)ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪ .(1‬ﻭﺃﺩﻯ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻓﺘﺢ ﺣﻮﺍﺭ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‪ :‬ﺧﻄﻮﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺻﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﻗﺸﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺻﻌﺐ ‪ −‬ﺷﺎﻣﻼﹰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺻﻞ ﻭﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻼﺕ ﺑﲔ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻣﺪﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺰﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﺎﻳﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺑﲔ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‬ ‫‪ −‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺣﺎﺳﻢ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ )ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪.(3‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ :2‬ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﳕﻮﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺴﻴﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ‪/‬ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ )‪(1999‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺻﻼﺡ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺻﻼﺡ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﲔ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﺭﺋﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ )‪(2007‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺍ‪‬ﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ )‪(2008‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍ‪‬ﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ )‪(2005‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫|‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﹼ ﺓ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ :3‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﳕﻮﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ :‬ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺑﺮﺯ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﻠﺪ ﳕﻮﻩ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ‬ ‫ﺃﺑﺮﺯ ﺳﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺛﻴﻘﺔ‪/‬ﻭﺛﺎﺋﻖ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﶈﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ )‪(2008‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ ﻭﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻊ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‪/‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﲔ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫)‪ (2007‬ﺍﳋﻄﺔ ﺍﳋﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻋﺸﺮﺓ‬ ‫)‪(2010−2006‬‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻊ ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻞ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ )‪ (2006‬ﺍﳋﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺔ ﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺤﺪﺩﺓ ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻭﺗﻌﺰﻳﺰ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻋﺸﺮﺓ )‪(2012−2007‬‬ ‫ﻗﺪﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ )‪(2008‬‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻠﹼﻲ ﻣﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ )‪(2007‬‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ )‪(2007‬‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ )‪ (2004‬ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ‬ ‫ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺨﺮﺍﻁ ﺑﺎﻛﺮﺍ ﹰ ﻣﻊ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﳋﻄﻂ‬ ‫ﲡﻤﻊ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬﻳﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ‪ :‬ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼﹰ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﲤﺜﹼﻞ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺗﺼﺪﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﻣﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﺸﻤﻮﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﹰ‬ ‫ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﻋﺎﻡ ﻭﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺧﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﳌﺪﻧﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺣﻔﺰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﻋﺪﺓ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ )ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪ .(2‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﹰ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ )‪ (NGOs‬ﻭﻣﻨﺪﻭﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺴﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻷﻗﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺼﺎﻟﺢ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﻔﻴﺔ ﻳﺴﺎﻧﺪﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﺴﺎﻧﺪ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﻟﺘﺰﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺳﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺨﺮﺍﻁ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻣﻬﻢﹼ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎﻫﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻷﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺷﺎﻣﻼﹰ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺮﺗﻜﺰﺍﻥ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﺪﻓﻬﺎ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ )ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺃﻭ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪:‬‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳊﺮﺍﺟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷ ﹸﺳﺮ(‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺨﺮﺍﻁ ﻳﺒﻨﻲ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﺰﺍﻡ ﻭﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﻱ ﻭﻳﻀﻊ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﻘﺪ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﲔ ﻭﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺻﻞ ﻭﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻃﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫|‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺗﺴﻬﹼ ﻞ ﺍﳋﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺴﺘﺠﻴﺐ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﳋﻄﺔ ﺍﳋﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻋﺸﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﲔ ﻭﺿﻌﺖ ﻫﺪﻓﺎ ﹰ ﻳﺘﻤﺜﹼﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ 20‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺎﺋﺔ ﺑﺤﻠﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ .2011‬ﻭﺗﺴﺎﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺗﺄﻛﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﺠﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺤﺪﺩﺓ ﻫﻲ‪ :‬ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺳﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﺼﻠﺔ ﺑﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺴﲔ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻧﻘﻞ ﻭﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻭﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻹﺳﻤﻨﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﺭﻧﺖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﻋﺪﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﻣﺆﲤﺮ ﺃﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﱈ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻋﻘﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻲ )‪ (2007‬ﺃﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﺄﻭﺿﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﻈﻴﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ‪ ،‬ﻃﻠﺒﺖ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪﻳﺔ ﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻭﺗﻌﺎﻭﻧﺖ ﻣﻊ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ )‪ (2006‬ﻭﺍﳋﻄﺔ ﺍﳋﻤﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻋﺸﺮﺓ )‪ .(2012−2007‬ﻭﺍﻛﺘﺴﺒﺖ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﺧﻢ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ ﹰ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﻊ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ‪:‬ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻀﻤﹼ ﻨﺖ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻧﺨﺮﺍﻁ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻊ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻭﺭﺍﺕ‪ :‬ﻓﺒﺮﺍﻳﺮ‪/‬ﺷﺒﺎﻁ ‪ −‬ﻣﺎﻳﻮ‪/‬ﺃﻳﺎﺭ ‪ .2007‬ﺟﺮﻯ ﻋﻘﺪ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺎﺕ ﻣﻜﺜﻔﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 60‬ﺷﺨﺼﺎ ﹰ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺎﺕ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﻴﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺇﻳﻀﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻭﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﰎ‬ ‫ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﳉﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ‪ :‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺣﺪﺙ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺟﺮﺩ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮﻳﺔ )ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻤﻦ ﺟﻤﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ(‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﰎ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳋﻄﻂ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻤﻴﺔ ﺟﻨﺒﺎ ﹰ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺟﻨﺐ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺠﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ )ﻣﺤﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ( ﻭﺃﻳﻦ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﹰ )ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ(‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ :‬ﺳﺒﺘﻤﺒﺮ‪/‬ﺃﻳﻠﻮﻝ ‪ .2007‬ﻭﺿﻊ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻣﺘﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﻳﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺷﺘﺮﻙ ﻓﻴﻪ ‪ 70−60‬ﺷﺨﺼﺎ ﹰ‪ ،‬ﲟﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ :‬ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ‪ 10‬ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻛﺎﺩﳝﻴﲔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻮ‪ :‬ﻗﺎﻡ ﺑﺒﻨﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻡ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺩﻋﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﻛﺎﺕ ﻣﻊ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺳﺎﻋﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻌﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﻔﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﲢﺪﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻠﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻉ ﻭﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﻧﻈﺮﻫﻢ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﺼﺎﻣﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪ :‬ﺃﺑﺮﻳﻞ‪/‬ﻧﻴﺴﺎﻥ ‪ .2008‬ﰎ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻟﻠﺠﻨﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺍﳌﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺑﺈﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺟﺮﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻳﻮﻡ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﺷﺘﺮﻙ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺧﺒﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﺤﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﰎ ﺟﻤﻊ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﺎﻣﹼ ﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻧﺎﻗﺶ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﹰ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺇﺫﺍ ﰎ ﺇﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻠﺔ؟ ﻭﺟﺮﻯ ﺗﻜﻠﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺘﺴﻠﻴﻢ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺑﺎﻛﺮﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‪ :‬ﻣﺎﺭﺱ‪/‬ﺁﺫﺍﺭ ‪ .2009‬ﰎ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺷﺌﺔ ﳌﻨﺪﻭﺑﲔ ﻋﻦ ‪ 10‬ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫|‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﹼ ﺓ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ‪.3‬‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﻔﺮ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻜﺎﺳﺐ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ‪ −‬ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻡ ﻣﺤﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺪﺍﻣﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻧﻔﺴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮﻳﺔ ‪ −‬ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﺴﻔﺮ ﻋﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻨﺖ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ )‪ 0.5‬ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ‪−‬‬ ‫‪ 1.5‬ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ( ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻐﺮﻕ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻫﺎ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 30‬ﺷﻬﺮﺍ ﹰ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﺃﻓﺴﺢ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻝ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺍﳌﻔﻴﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺷﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺪﺍﻣﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﻘﻀﺖ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪ ﻣﻊ ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻳﻖ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﰎ ﺗﻜﺮﻳﺲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭﺗﺴﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﰎ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﺮﻳﺲ ﺟﻬﻮﺩ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻭﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻢ ﺗﻜﻦ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺑﺪﺀ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺗﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺘﺎ ﹰ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺎ ﹰ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﻌﻘﻴﺪ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻹﺑﻼﻍ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺗﺴﻠﻴﻢ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﻗﻮﻱ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﻓﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺑﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳊﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻧﺨﺮﺍﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻭﺣﺘﻰ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﹰ ﺑﺄﻥ ﻟﺘﺸﻜﻴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻳﻖ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﲔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺜﻴﻞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﺍﳌﺮﻏﻮﺏ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼﹰ ﻋﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻓﺠﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﻌﺖ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺒﺮﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻜﻤﻴﻞ ﻭﺭﺩﻑ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻧﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺻﺮﻳﺤﺔ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﲔ )ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪ .(3‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻀﻤﻨﺖ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﺧﺒﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﺤﻠﻴﲔ ﺳﺎﻧﺪﺗﻬﻢ ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺍﺕ ﻓﻨﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﹰ ﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﺨﺮﻃﺖ ﻓﺮﻕ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﺗﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫ﺗﻨﺴﻴﻘﺎ ﹰ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺗﺴﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﰋ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺻﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻱ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻳﺎ ﹰ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ‬ ‫ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫|‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.3‬‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻓﺮﻕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺻﺮﻳﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻟﻜﻞ‬ ‫ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﺸﺎﻭﺭ ﻣﻊ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﺮﻳﻀﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﲔ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﲤﺖ ﺩﻋﻮﺓ ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﲔ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﱘ ﻋﺮﻭﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺭﺅﻳﺘﻬﻢ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺧﻠﻖ ‪ 19‬ﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎ ﹰ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ )‪ 7‬ﻓﺮﻕ( ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ )‪ 6‬ﻓﺮﻕ(‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻤﻠﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﺘﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﺎﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺟﺮﻯ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﲔ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻫﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﹰ ﻣﻦ‪ :‬ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﻛﺎﺩﳝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺸﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺃﺗﺎﺡ ﻣﺰﻳﺞ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﲔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺓ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ‪.4‬‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻗﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻧﺨﺮﺍﻁ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺖ‪ ،‬ﺳﻌﺖ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﲔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻗﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻔﻜﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻭﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﲡﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﺨﻄﻰ ﺍﳊﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻮﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﺣﺘﺎﺟﺖ ﺇﻟﻰ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻓﻬﻢ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺼﺪﺭ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻼﺕ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﲔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺴﻬﻴﻞ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻔﺎﻋﻼﺕ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﻭﻣﺠﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﲔ‪ :‬ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳋﺒﺮﺍﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼﹰ‬ ‫ﻋﻦ ﺣﻠﻘﺎﺕ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻭﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺗﺘﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻭﺍﳊﻴﹼﺰ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺎﺕ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﲔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﲡﻠﺐ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻮﺍﺭ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ )ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺆﻭﻟﺔ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺨﻴﺎ ﹰ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻲ( ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺎﺕ )ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻗﺎﻟﻴﻢ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ ﻓﺮﺹ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻻﺣﺘﺠﺎﺯ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺒﻨﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺻﻞ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﻳﺴﺘﻔﻴﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﻔﺮﺩﺓ ﻛﺎﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺗﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﻣﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻭﻋﻦ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺴﻬﹼ ﻞ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺮﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻢ ﻭﺗﺒﺎﺩﻝ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺟﻴﺮﺍﻧﻬﻢ ﻭﻧﻈﺮﺍﺋﻬﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻤﻠﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﺩﻝ ﻏﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻤﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﲔ ﺳﺖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺳﺘﺔ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ‪ .‬ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺷﺎﺭﻛﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫)‪ (LTMS‬ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺠﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﻭﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺇﺗﺎﺣﺔ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺗﻌﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻮﺟﺰ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪ 4‬ﺧﻄﺔ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﺮﻭﻱ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪ 5‬ﺧﺒﺮﺍﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺟﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﺳﺘﺪﺍﻣﺔ ﺍﻧﺨﺮﺍﻁ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫|‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﹼ ﺓ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.4‬‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﺑﺪﻣﺞ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻗﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﺤﺪﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺆﺩﻳﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻋﻘﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2007‬ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺃﻋﻘﺒﺖ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ‪ ،‬ﺳﻌﺖ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﺪﻋﻴﻢ ﻗﺪﺭﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻘﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻭﺃﺛﺮﻩ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﻌﺎﻭﻧﺖ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺒﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫• ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﹼﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺔ ‪ −‬ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺟﺰﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺤﻮ ﺳﺮﻳﻊ ﻭﻣﺮﻛﹼ ﺰ‪.‬‬ ‫• ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﹼﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻻﻧﺨﺮﺍﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻲ ‪ −‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2007‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ ،2008‬ﺷﺎﺭﻙ ﻣﻮﻇﻔﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﻮﻥ ﻭﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﳌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺮﺿﻮﺍ ﻭﺗﻌﺎﻭﻧﻮﺍ ﻣﻊ ﻧﻈﺮﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﻴﲔ‪.‬‬ ‫• ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﹼﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻲ ‪ −‬ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﺗﻀﻤﹼ ﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺸﺎﺭﻳﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﲤﻮﻟﻬﺎ ﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﻣﺎﻧﺤﺔ‪ :‬ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﱈ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﺍﻹﳕﺎﺋﻲ )‪ ،(UNDP‬ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﺎﺑﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻲ )‪ ،(JICA‬ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺘﺮﺍﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ )‪ ،(AUSAID‬ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﳕﺮﻛﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ )‪ (DANIDA‬ﻣﻦ ﺑﲔ ﺟﻬﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫• ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﹼﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ‪ −‬ﺷﺎﺭﻙ ﻣﻮﻇﻔﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺑﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺴﻴﻖ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﺨﺘﺼﺔ ﺑﺎﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﺷﺘﺮﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻫﺎ ﻣﻌﻬﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻱ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﻋﻦ ‪World Bank, “Low Carbon Development Options for Indonesia: Phase 1 Status Report and‬‬ ‫‪.Findings,” November 2008‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫|‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.5‬‬ ‫ﺇﺩﺍﻣﺔ ﺍﻧﺨﺮﺍﻁ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪ :‬ﺃﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ‪ ،‬ﻟﻘﻴﺖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺒﻮﻝ ﺳﺮﻳﻌﺎ ﹰ ﻛﺠﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ‪ .‬ﻭﺣﺎﻓﻆ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﺭ ﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻋﺎﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ‪ .‬ﻭﺟﺮﻯ ﻋﻘﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻠﺠﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﺳﻬﹼ ﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺎﺩﺙ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻛﺎﻧﺖ‬ ‫ﺣﻠﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺳﻤﺔ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻭﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﳉﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﻟﺢ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ ﻭﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﻃﻠﺐ ﻣﺤﺪﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻗﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭﰎ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻧﻬﺞ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤﺎ ﹰ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻣﻊ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻨﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﻋﻘﺪ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻮﺟﻬﺔ ﻭﺣﻠﻘﺎﺕ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻭﻣﺆﲤﺮﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﻞ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻓﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﺩﻣﺠﺖ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻧﺨﺮﺍﻁ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺎﻣﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺗﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻷﺩﺍﺓ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﳋﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻞ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﺑﺮﺋﺎﺳﺔ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﻣﻦ ﺑﲔ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺭﻓﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ‬ ‫ﲟﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻨﺪﻭﺑﲔ ﻋﻦ‪ :‬ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﳌﺪﻧﻲ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬ ‫”ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ“‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﻟﻠﻔﺤﻢ ﺍﳊﺠﺮﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ ”ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ‪“ Sherpa‬‬ ‫ﺣﺪﺩﺕ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻧﺤﻮ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻃﻮﺭﺕ ﺃﻃﺮ ﺧﻠﻔﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﺟﻌﻴﺔ‬‫‪ .1‬ﹼ‬ ‫‪ .2‬ﺧﻠﻘﺖ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪.World Bank, “Low Carbon Study: South Africa,” Presentation, April 2009 :‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫|‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﹼ ﺓ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻊ ﺳﺒﻞ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﳕﻮﺫﺟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ‪.5‬‬ ‫ﺟﺮﻯ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺭﺑﻊ ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﻣﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺷﻤﻮﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ‪:‬‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺿﻊ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫‪.1‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺴﺎﻕ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻮﻳﺔ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻭﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ‬ ‫‪.2‬‬ ‫ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺣﺘﺠﺎﺯﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺴﺎﻕ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻮﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺣﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺨﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫‪.3‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻔﻌﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ )ﻭﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻛﺜﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻊ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ‪/‬ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ‪/‬ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﺍﳊﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫‪.4‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺗﺴﺎﻕ ﻣﻊ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺗﻜﺰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﻊ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺭﺑﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‪ :‬ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻬﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻭﺿﻊ ﳕﺎﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺀ ﻭﺍﻻﻧﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫)ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2030‬ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺴﺎﻕ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﻫﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺧﺼﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ‪ .‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﻄﺒﻖ ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ ﻣﻌﺪﻻ ﹰ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺎ ﹰ ﻫﻮ ‪10‬‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺎﺋﺔ ﻭﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪﻳﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺧﺼﻢ ﻫﻮ ‪ 12‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺎﺋﺔ ﻳﻬﺒﻂ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺮﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 10‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺎﺋﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﺘﻨﻈﺮ ﺑﺪﻻ ﹰ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻬﺎ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻐﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻧﻬﺞ ﰎ ﻭﺿﻌﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻕ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ‪ −‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ‪ −‬ﻭﲢﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ﻭﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻌﻮﻗﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﺷﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻳﻀﻊ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺿﻊ ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻠﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻧﺤﻮ‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ‪ −‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ‪ −‬ﻋﻠﻰ‪ :‬ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺿﻊ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ ﻣﺤﻠﻴﺎ ﹰ )ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ .(4‬ﻓﺎﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺭﻛﺰﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻟﻠﺤﺴﺎﺏ )‪ (CGE‬ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺇﺗﺎﺣﺔ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﻞ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ )ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪ .(9‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﺖ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻧﻬﺞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺔ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ‪ 40‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2007‬ﻭﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪) 2030‬ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.(10‬‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﰎ ﻭﺿﻊ ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ‪ :‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳊﺮﺍﺟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ‪ −‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ −‬ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﻼﻓﺘﻘﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺗﺴﺘﻮﻓﻲ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺳﻬﹼ ﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺛﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﻴﻖ ﻟﻸﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﻀﻤﲔ ﺍﳋﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﹰ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺿﻊ ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫)ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭﺍﻥ ‪ 6‬ﻭ‪ ،(7‬ﻭﻟﻮ ﺑﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺟﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺷﻔﺎﻓﻴﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺴﻬﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﻓﻬﻤﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫|‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ :4‬ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﳕﻮﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﹰ‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻌﻪ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ‬ ‫ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺗﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺟﺰﺋﻲ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻠﻲ ﻣﺼﻤﻢ ﺧﺼﻴﺼﺎ ﹰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪ :‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻭﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﺎﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻭﺍﳊﺮﺍﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﻤﻢ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻌﻪ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ‬ ‫ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺑﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺧﻴﺼﺔ ﻭﺳﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺚ ﻭﺻﻘﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻬﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪ Excel‬ﻭﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪Visual Basic‬‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻢ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﹰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻟﻠﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﹰ‬ ‫ﺗﻀﻤﻦ ﻧﻮﺍﰋ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ‪− LEAP‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﻓﻲ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻢ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﹰ‬ ‫ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ‪/‬ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻟﻠﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻌﻪ ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺳﺘﻮﻛﻬﻮﻟﻢ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺧﻄﻂ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ‬ ‫ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻡ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻗﺎﺋﻢ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﹰ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﻣﺎﺭﻛﺎﻝ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﻭﺿﻊ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﻪ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ‬ ‫ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺰﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.6‬‬ ‫ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﺖ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ ﻣﻊ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺿﻊ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﳕﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ )‪ (LCG‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﻛﺄﺩﺍﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻫﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺔ ﻣﺒﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺠﻲ ‪ ،Excel/ Visual Basic‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺠﻌﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﻬﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻭﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺟﺎﻫﺰ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ :‬ﻧﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﺒﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺷﻜﹼ ﻠﺖ ﻣﻌﺎ ﹰ ‪ 60‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺎﺋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ ،2004‬ﻭﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 400‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﳝﻜﹼ ﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻭﺍﺿﻌﻲ ﺍﳋﻄﻂ ﻣﻦ‪ :‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﻔﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺣﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﲟﻮﺟﺐ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ .2030‬ﻭﻳﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪﻱ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺔ ﻭﻳﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻣﻊ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ‪ :‬ﺇﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﰋ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﹼﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ )ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺣﻀﺮﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺭﻳﻔﻴﺔ(‪.‬‬ ‫ﺟﺮﻯ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﹰ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺧﻄﻂ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﳋﻄﺔ ﺍﳋﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻋﺸﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﳋﻄﻂ ﺍﳋﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺣﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺸﺎﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺼﺎﺻﻴﲔ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺒﺎﻧﻲ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻗﻄﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ‪ 4.3‬ﻭ ‪ 5.1‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺎﺋﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﹰ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻡ ‪ .2006‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﰎ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺬ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺸﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ ﺻﻘﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺚ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﲟﺎ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﻧﻘﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺇﳒﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﻋﻦ ‪.“India: Strategies for Low Carbon Growth,” Preliminary Report, World Bank, June 2009‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫|‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﹼ ﺓ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.7‬‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻊ ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻭﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﺳﺘﻄﻼﻉ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺗﻮﻗﻊ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻭﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻼﹰ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺩﻣﺞ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺑﲔ ﳕﻮﺫﺟﲔ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ .1‬ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ :‬ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ )‪ ،(BLUM‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻃﻮﺭﻩ ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﻣﻔﺎﻭﺿﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ )‪ (ICONE‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﳕﺬﺟﺔ ﺗﻀﻊ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺗﻮﺯﹼﻉ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﺲ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﺰﺍﺣﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻭﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﺤﺎﺻﻴﻞ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺼﻮﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺯ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻘﻮﻟﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻄﻦ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺼﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﺮﺍﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .2‬ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﻀﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﲟﺮﺟﻌﻴﺔ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ )‪ ،(SIM Brazil‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻭﺿﻌﻪ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺸﻌﺎﺭ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﳋﺮﺍﺋﻂ ﻓﻲ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻣﻴﻨﺎﺱ ﻏﻴﺮﺍﻳﺲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻳﺴﻬﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻀﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺮﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ ﺑﻜﺎﻣﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﹰ‬ ‫ﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺟﺮﻯ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻛﻼ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺟﲔ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﺎﺀ ﺑﺎﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﹰ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ”ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ“‬ ‫ﻻ ﻳﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺄﺧﻮﺫﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻳﺠﺪ ﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎ ﹰ ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ ﺃﺧﺬ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳉﺬﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮﺍﻧﻲ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻧﺊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎﻓﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﰎ ﲢﻮﻳﻠﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ”ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺧﺮﺍﺋﻂ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺷﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﹼ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ“ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ 1‬ﻛﻢ‪ ،2‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺴﻬﹼ ﻞ‬ ‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ‪ :1‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺳﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ‪ :2‬ﻭﺿﻊ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﻗﻊ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﺿﻤﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ‬ ‫)ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺑﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺷﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ(‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ‪ :3‬ﻭﺿﻊ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺗﻮﺯﹼﻉ ﻓﻀﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺎ ﹰ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﺃﻳﻦ ﻭﻛﻴﻒ ﲢﺪﺙ ﺗﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ‪ :4‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺭﺻﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻐﻄﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺗﻲ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﺔ ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﹰ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺼﺪﺭ ﻋﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺷﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﺗﲔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭﻻ ﹰ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻧﺨﻔﺎﺿﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲟﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﳝﻜﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﲟﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺘﺼﺮﹼﻑ ﻋﻦ ‪.World Bank, “Brazil Low Carbon Country Case Study,” June 2009‬‬ ‫ﺭﻛﺰﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼﹰ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﺎﺗﻬﺎ )ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪ .(8‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﻌﺖ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ”ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ“ ﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﺑﺤﺜﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫|‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.8‬‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻃﻠﺒﺖ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺷﺆﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺇﳒﺎﺯ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﺯﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ .2050−2000‬ﻭﻗﺎﻡ ﺑﻮﺿﻊ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﻭﻃﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻣﺪﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﺏ ﻭﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﺸﺎﻭﺭ ﻣﺴﺘﻔﻴﻀﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻫﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻣﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﻣﺪﻧﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺃﺟﺰﺍﺀ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ .1‬ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ )ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻭﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺤﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺠﺮﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﻴﻔﺔ( ﻭﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪/‬ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ؛‬ ‫‪ .2‬ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ‪ :‬ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﳊﺮﺍﺟﺔ؛‬ ‫‪ .3‬ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻭﺃﺛﺮﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭﺧﻠﻖ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ؛ ﻭ‬ ‫‪ .4‬ﺃﺛﺮ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﹼﻒ ﻣﻌﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﺄﻟﻒ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺒﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﻭﻟﻴﲔ ﻭﺧﺒﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﺤﻠﻴﲔ ﻭﺗﻀﻤﹼ ﻦ ﻣﺴﺎﻫﻤﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻋﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﳑﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ‪ .‬ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﲟﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻠﻮﺍﺋﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺑﺤﻮﺙ ﻭﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻭﺑﺤﻮﺙ ﻭﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻭﻋﺮﺽ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺃﻛﺪ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﹼﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻲ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻭﻧﻘﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺘﺼﺮﹼﻑ ﻣﻦ ‪.World Bank, “South Africa: Low Carbon Growth Strategy Concept Note,” October 2007‬‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ‪.6‬‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺔ ‪ −‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺮﻛﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﹰ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻠﻮﺍﺋﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻃﺮ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ‪ −‬ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ‪/‬ﻭﺍﳊﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻳﺠﺮﻱ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﻭﻣﻘﺎﺭﺑﺎﺕ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻩ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻓﻲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ )ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ (2‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻣﺸﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺤﺪﺩ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ )ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪/‬ﻃﻦ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺃﻛﺴﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ( ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﹰ‬ ‫ﺑﺄﻥ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺘﻢ ﺇﺗﺎﺣﺔ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪ −‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻠﻮﺍﺋﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﻣﻌﻮﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻭﻫﻴﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ‪ −‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻬﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﺃﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫|‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﹼ ﺓ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.9‬‬ ‫ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﰎ ﻭﺿﻊ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺗﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻋﺎﻡ ﻣﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﹰ ﺇﻟﻰ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ‪/‬ﺍ‪‬ﺮﺟﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2005‬ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ‪ :‬ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻊ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻣﻨﻮﻟﺚ ﻟﻠﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺳﺘﺮﺍﻟﻴﺎ )‪ (CSIRO‬ﻭﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺃﺳﺘﺮﺍﻟﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ )‪ (ANU‬ﲟﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﲤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺘﺮﺍﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ )‪ (AUSAID‬ﻭﰎ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻧﻬﺞ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻮﺯﹼﻉ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﻔﻮﺭﻱ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺿﻊ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫‪ 2050‬ﻭﻳﻠﻘﻲ ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﺜﻞ‪ :‬ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺑﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺿﺮﺍﺋﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﳉﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩ ﻭﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‪/‬ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻮﻳﺾ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ‪ 35‬ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎ ﹰ ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍ ﹰ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻜﺎﺳﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳋﺴﺎﺋﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪,World Bank, “Low Carbon Development Options: Indonesia Country Study,” Presentation :‬‬ ‫‪.August 2009‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ :2‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻣﺸﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺑﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺓ ﺟﻮﻑ ﺍﻷﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺑﻘﺼﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺑﺤﻄﺐ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩ )‪(20%‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﻭﻣﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺻﻐﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﻟﻠﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺞ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺮﺟﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺑﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺻﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺖ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﺰﻝ ﺍﳊﻴﻮﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺯﻳﺖ ﺍﻟﻨﺨﻴﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﻓﻲ ‪PEMEX‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﳊﻴﻮﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺴﺨﲔ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻣﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺑﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺜﻴﻒ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳊﻀﺮﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺜﺎﻧﻮﻝ ﻗﺼﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺤﻦ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻜﻚ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺤﺺ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺒﺎﺕ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﳊﺪﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻴﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻬﻮﺍﺀ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺰﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻣﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻮﺟﺴﺘﻴﺎﺕ ﻧﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻀﺎﺋﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺜﺎﻧﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺬﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻀﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﲢﺴﲔ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺚ ‪ 21‬ﻣﺪﻳﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﺎﺻﺎﺕ‬ ‫]ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪/‬ﻃﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﺎﻓﺊ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺃﻛﺴﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ[‬ ‫ﺻﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺫﻱ ﺍﶈﺮﻛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺍﻗﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﺦ ﹼ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻴﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻬﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﻨﺰﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺗﺴﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻔﺤﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺎﺭﺓ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺰﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺬﺭﺓ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﻓﻼﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺠﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﺰﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﻨﺰﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﻮﺍﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺑﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ ﺍﳊﻴﻮﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺻﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺘﺮﺍﻛﻢ ‪] 2030−2009‬ﻣﻼﻳﲔ ﺍﻷﻃﻨﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﺎﻓﺊ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺃﻛﺴﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ[‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪WorldBank, “Low Carbon Development for Mexico (MEDEC),” Presentation, September 2009 :‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫|‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ‪.7‬‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪) :‬ﺃ( ﻭﺿﻊ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﻲ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺳﻚ ﻭﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﻭﻟﻮﺍﺋﺢ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪) ،‬ﺏ( ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭ )ﺝ( ﺧﻠﻖ ﺷﺮﺍﻛﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﹰ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺗﻌﺠﻴﻞ ﺧﻄﻰ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺐ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺗﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺒﲔ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻼﻥ ‪ 3‬ﻭ ‪ 4‬ﻋﻴﹼﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﲢﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻭﻛﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺴﺎﻧﺪ ﺟﻬﻮﺩ ﻣﻮﺍﺯﻳﺔ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺻﻘﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﺜﺮﻳﻬﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺗﻨﻘﻴﺢ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﺑﺎﻹﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻋﻴﺪ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ‬ ‫)ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪ .(11‬ﻭﺗﺴﺎﻧﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺟﻨﺒﺎ ﹰ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺟﻨﺐ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﻮﻟﻪ ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻲ ﻭﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ )ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪ .(12‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺩﺧﻮﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﹼ ﺢ ﺍﺯﺩﻳﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻠﻮﺍﺋﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ‪ :‬ﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻴﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫‪17‬‬ ‫|‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﹼ ﺓ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.10‬‬ ‫ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ‬ ‫ﰎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ‪ 40‬ﻣﻦ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺔ ﻭﻗﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺒﻲ ﻟﻠﺨﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ .1‬ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺃﻛﺴﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﻔﺮ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻠﻲ ﻋﻦ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﻟﻼﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺑﻮﺍﻗﻊ‬ ‫‪ 5‬ﻣﻼﻳﲔ ﻃﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﺎﻓﺊ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺃﻛﺴﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺑﺤﻠﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪.2030‬‬ ‫‪ .2‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻟﻠﻄﻦ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﻧﻘﺎﺻﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﺎﻓﺊ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺃﻛﺴﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﻟﻢ ﻳﺠﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﻻ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺑﻲ )ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺧﺼﻢ ﻣﺤﺪﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺳﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﺤﺪﺩﺓ( ﻭﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺃﺛﺮ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ 25‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻟﻠﻄﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﻧﻘﺎﺻﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﺎﻓﺊ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺃﻛﺴﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﹰ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺻﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﻳﺠﺎﺑﻲ ﻫﻲ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ”ﻻ ﻧﺪﻡ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ“ ﻷﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺟﻤﺔ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﻔﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻔﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .3‬ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ‪ .‬ﻳﺤﺪﺩﻫﺎ ﺧﺒﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﺃﺧﺬﻭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪ :‬ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺤﺪﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺆﻟﻮﻥ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺮﻭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺟﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺃﻱ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺗﺪﺧﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﻊ‪ :‬ﺧﺒﺮﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺆﻭﻟﲔ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﲔ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﳌﺪﻧﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ‪.3‬‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ‪.2‬‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ‪.1‬‬ ‫ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ‬ ‫ﺻﺎﻓﻲ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪World Bank, “MEDEC (Mexico: Estudio sobre la Disminucion de Emisiones de Carbono): Mexico Low Carbon :‬‬ ‫‪.Study,” June 2009‬‬ ‫ﻳﺒﺮﺯ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮ ﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ ﺑﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎ ﹰ‪ .‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰎ ﻋﺮﺿﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻣﺤﺪﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺮ ﺗﻜﻤﻦ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺪﻥ ﻭﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﳊﻀﺮﻱ ﻭﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﳊﺮﺍﺟﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﲟﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ )‪(MEDEC‬‬ ‫‪1200‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ]ﻣﻼﻳﲔ ﺍﻷﻃﻨﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﺎﻓﺊ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺃﻛﺴﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪/‬ﺳﻨﺔ[‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﳊﺮﺍﺟﺔ‬ ‫‪1000‬‬ ‫ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛ‬ ‫ﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺟﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬ ‫‪800‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‬ ‫‪600‬‬ ‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﻜﺴﻴﻚ ﺇﺑﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻓﻌﻼ ﹰ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬ ‫‪400‬‬ ‫‪ 40‬ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍ ﹰ ﺗﺪﺧﻠﻴﺎ ﹰ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ‬ ‫‪200‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2008‬‬ ‫‪2012‬‬ ‫‪2016‬‬ ‫‪2020‬‬ ‫‪2024‬‬ ‫‪2028‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪.World Bank, “Low Carbon Development for Mexico (MEDEC),” Presentation, September 2009 :‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫|‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .3‬ﺩﻭﺭ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ‪/‬ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﹼﻒ ﻣﻊ ﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻓﻲ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ‪:‬‬ ‫• ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ‬ ‫• ﻣﻨﺎﺥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫• ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫• ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ )ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ(‬ ‫• ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫• ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ‬ ‫• ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫• ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫• ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﺍﶈﺒﺬﺓ ﻟﻠﻔﻘﺮﺍﺀ‬ ‫• ﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﻭﻗﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻮﺍﺋﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯﻧﺔ‪/‬ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪/‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫• ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﺫ‪/‬ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ‬ ‫• ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯﻧﺔ‬ ‫• ﺿﺮﺍﺋﺐ‪/‬ﺭﺳﻮﻡ‪/‬ﻣﻜﻮﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫• ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﻲ‪/‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫• ﺇﺗﺎﻭﺍﺕ‪/‬ﺭﻳﻮﻉ‬ ‫• ﻣﻨﺎﺥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ )ﺍﺟﺘﺬﺍﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‬ ‫• ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫• ﺩﻋﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪/‬ﺇﻋﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ(‬ ‫• ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‬ ‫ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫• ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻲ‬ ‫• ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎﺀ‪/‬ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺎﻣﻴﻢ‬ ‫• ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺭﻳﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﻀﺮﺍﺀ‬ ‫• ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪/‬ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ‬ ‫• ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻏﻴﺮ‬ ‫• ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫• ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫• ﺗﺒﺎﺩﻝ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫• ﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪.World Bank, “Low Carbon Development Options for Indonesia: Phase 1 Status Report and Findings,” November 2008 :‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ :4‬ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺪﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺞ‬ ‫• ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻀﺎﺕ ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫• ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬ ‫• ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻛﺜﻴﻒ‬ ‫• ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ )ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﻴﻔﺔ(‬ ‫• ﺧﻄﻂ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‪/‬ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺔ‬ ‫• ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ‬ ‫• ﺣﺎﻓﺰ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻼﻛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫• ﺇﻋﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫• ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ‬ ‫• ﻏﺎﻳﺎﺕ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫• ﻗﺮﻭﺽ ﺑﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﻣﻴﺴﺮﺓ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫• ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫• ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻏﺎﻳﺎﺕ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫• ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﳌﻨﺢ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫• ﺗﺒﺮﻳﺪ ﺃﺿﻮﺍﺀ ﻣﻮﺗﻮﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫• ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫• ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫• ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺻﻐﻴﺮﺓ‬ ‫• ﲡﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﻋﻦ ‪.World Bank, “Low Carbon Development Options: Indonesia Country Study,” Presentation, August 2009‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫|‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﹼ ﺓ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺻﺎﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺇﻳﺠﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺗﻠﻚ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﻗﺎﺭﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﺃﺑﺮﺯ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ )ﻭﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ( ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰎ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻫﺎﻣﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺤﻮ ﺧﺎﺹ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺜﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺧﻠﻖ ﺷﺮﺍﻛﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ‬ ‫ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺷﺮﺍﻛﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻲ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺩﻓﻊ ﻣﺴﻴﺮﺓ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻱ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﻣﻌﻮﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﺼﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ ﻭﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ ﺟﻤﻴﻌﺎ ﹰ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺷﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺤﻢ ﺍﳊﺠﺮﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺟﻤﻴﻌﺎ ﹰ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺳﺒﻴﻞﹴ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﹰ‪ ،‬ﺃﺳﻔﺮﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻊ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﺔ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﺠﻢ ﻋﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻧﻬﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ )ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.(12‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.11‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﳋﻄﻂ‪ :‬ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻬﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻛﻘﻴﺪ ﻣﻌﻴﻖ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﺟﻬﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﺎﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﻐﺎﻳﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺣﺎﺳﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﺣﲔ ﻳﺆﺧﺬ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻄﻮﺭﺓ ﺟﻨﺒﺎ ﹰ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺟﻨﺐ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﳕﻮ ﺇﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﰋ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺑﺤﻠﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 2032−2031‬ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 4‬ﺃﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪2008−2007‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺃﻛﺴﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ‪ 3.4‬ﺃﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪.2007‬‬ ‫ﲟﻮﺟﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﺯﺍﻟﺖ ﻣﺤﻄﺎﺕ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺑﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺤﻢ ﺍﳊﺠﺮﻱ ﺗﻬﻴﻤﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻣﺪﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‪ 55−53 ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺎﺋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻄﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳌ ﹸﺮﻛﹼ ﺒﺔ ﻭ ‪ 76−73‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺎﺋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻣﺪﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻗﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻘﻞ ﻭﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﲟﺪﺓ ‪ 5‬ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ )‪ 56‬ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻃﻦ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﺎﻓﺊ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺃﻛﺴﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺎﹸ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﹰ‬ ‫ﻋﺸﺮ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ .(2004‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻟﻢ ﻳﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺮﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﳕﻮ ﺇﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﰋ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ ﻭﺿﻌﺖ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﹰ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺧﻄﻂ ﻭﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﻮﺣﻲ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺑﺄﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺢ‬ ‫ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻳﺎﺕ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺗﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺆﺳﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻬﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﺴﺘﻨﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪World Bank, “Low Carbon Growth in India: Bottom−up Capacity Building,” Presentation, September :‬‬ ‫‪.2009‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫|‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.12‬‬ ‫ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻃﻠﺒﺖ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺒﺎﺕ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻞ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺗﺴﺨﲔ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﰎ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ .1‬ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ )ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﻲ ﻭﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ(‬ ‫‪ .2‬ﺍﻟﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺍﺋﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻷﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫‪ .3‬ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪/‬ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺗﺪﻋﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ )ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ(‬ ‫‪ .4‬ﺍﻟﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ )‪ (NEEA‬ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫‪ .5‬ﺍﻟﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺷﻐﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﻭﺿﻊ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺭﻳﺪﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪ .6‬ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺡ ﻣﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻘﻨﲔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ ﹰ ﻓﻲ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺧﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ‪ −‬ﻋﻤﻞ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻭﺧﺒﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺴﻄﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﻌﺎ ﹰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺧﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻴﺢ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﹼ‬ ‫)ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳊﻤﻞ(‪” .‬ﺗﺸﺘﺮﻱ“ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭﻕ )ﻣﺮﻓﻖ ﻧﻔﻊ ﻋﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ( ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭ‪/‬ﺃﻭ ﻭﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺳﻌﺮ ﻣﺤﺪﺩ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻌﻠﻦ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎ ﹰ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﻭﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﻣﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﹸﺪﻓﻊ ﳉﻬﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﳝﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻭﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻣﺒﻠﻎ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻛﻴﻠﻮ ﻭﺍﻁ‪/‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﻛﻴﻠﻮ ﻭﺍﻁ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﳒﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﻗﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﰎ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻳﻔﺘﺢ ﻧﻬﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‪:‬‬ ‫• ﺗﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﻌﺠﻴﻞ ﺧﻄﻰ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻫﺎ‬ ‫• ﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﺎﺫ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺗﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺑﺴﺮﻋﺔ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻭﺗﺮﻯ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺗﻘﺼﻴﺮ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﳒﺎﺯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ )ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ‪ −‬ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ‪ −‬ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ‪،‬‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺔ ﺇﻗﺮﺍﺽ ‪ −‬ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ(‬ ‫• ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮ ﻷﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﻣﻮﻇﻔﻲ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻟﻐﺎﺀ ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺟﺒﺔ )ﻣﺜﻼﹰ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ(‬ ‫• ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﻤﻞ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻃﺮ‬ ‫• ﺗﺴﻬﻴﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﻄﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺗﻘﺼﻴﺮ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺇﻟﻐﺎﺀ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻋﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺑﺘﺠﺮﻳﺐ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻹﻧﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﹰ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻧﻬﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳋﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﻋﻦ ‪.World Bank, “Low Carbon Study: South Africa,” Presentation, April 2009‬‬ ‫‪21‬‬ ‫|‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﹼ ﺓ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﹸﻀﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﰎ ﺍﻛﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺧﺒﺮﺓ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺗﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﻓﻔﺮﺹ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺑﺎﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺳﺒﻞ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺘﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ‪ :‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺪﺍﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳊﺮﺍﺟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺷﺆﻭﻥ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺷﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﻟﻠﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺦ‪ ...‬ﻭﺳﺎﻋﺪﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ‪ −‬ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻔﺎﺻﻴﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ ‪ −‬ﻓﻲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﰎ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺎﺿﻲ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳉﻬﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺿﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺠﺮﻱ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﹰ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻮﻗﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺘﺸﺮﺓ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻷﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ‪ −‬ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻭﺍﻷﻭﺳﺎﻁ ﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﳌﺪﻧﻲ ‪ −‬ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ﻟﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻨﻘﻀﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺨﺮﺍﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻳﺴﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺪﺍﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﳊﻮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳌﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ ‪ 30‬ﺷﻬﺮﺍ ﹰ ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﺘﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ‪ 0.5‬ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﻭ ‪ 1.5‬ﻣﻠﺒﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﺃﻭ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻳﻄﺮﺡ ﺍﻟﺴﺆﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ‪ :‬ﻛﻴﻒ ﻧﺘﻌﻠﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻧﻨﻘﻠﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ؟ ﻭﻣﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺗﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻛﺜﻴﺮﺍ ﹰ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻳﺒﺮﺯ ﻋﺪﺩﺍ ﹰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﻭﺗﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻣﻊ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻝ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺻﻘﻞ ﻭﺗﺒﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻬﺠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻊ ﺇﺭﺷﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﻟﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺗﺴﺎﻕ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ )ﻣﺜﻼﹰ‪ :‬ﺗﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺧﻄﻮﻁ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻬﻢ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭﻫﺎ(‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﺤﺪﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻭﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺗﺒﺪﻭ ﻣﺠﺰﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﹰ )ﻣﺜﻼﹰ‪ :‬ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺪﺍﻡ(‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻃﻼﻉ ﺍﻵﺧﺮﻳﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺸﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ‪.‬‬ ‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﻭﺍﳌﻘﺎﺭﺑﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻬﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻭﺿﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ‪/‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﹰ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﻼﺹ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﻭﺱ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ )ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.(13‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﻏﺐ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺗﺘﻴﺢ ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳉﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﹼﻢ ﺑﺎﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻻﺑﺘﺪﺍﺀ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻵﺧﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﹼﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺒﺮﺗﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ )ﻣﺜﻼﹰ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ‪،‬‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﱈ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻨﻮﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺦ‪.(...‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺻﻞ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳊﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﺇﺷﺮﺍﻙ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻜﻤﻴﻞ ﺍﳋﻄﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻨﺪﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺍﻛﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫•‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻭﺿﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺪﺍﻣﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫|‬ ‫‪22‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ‪.13‬‬ ‫ﺧﺒﺮﺍﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻼﹰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺖ ﻓﺮﻳﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮﻋﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺫﺍ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺗﻮﺧﻲ ﺍﳊﺬﺭ؟‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺫﺍ ﳒﺢ؟‬ ‫• ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﺳﺘﻘﻄﺒﺖ ﻓﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﻣﻊ • ﺗﺼﻮﺭ ﺃﻭ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ −‬ﻓﺮﻁ ﻃﻤﻮﺡ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺃﻭ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﲔ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺑﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪ −‬ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻲ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﻴﻖ ﺍﳉﻬﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻧﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻨﺠﺢ ﺷﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪ −‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻔﻀﻞ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ‪ −‬ﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ‪ −‬ﻋﺪﻡ ﺇﺷﺮﺍﻙ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺞ ﺗﺸﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻭﺍﻣﺘﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫• ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﻠﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺟﻤﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﻄﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ ﹰ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺗﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺪﺍﻣﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺻﻌﺐ ﻭﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻣﻊ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪ −‬ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺘﻴﺢ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﻧﻮﺍﺣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺗﺴﺎﻧﺪ ﺷﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺼﺪﺍﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻴﺤﻬﺎ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ −‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺟﻴﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻋﻴﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻼﺕ ﺑﲔ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﲔ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫ﻭﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ ﹰ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﻬﹼ ﻞ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺑﲔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳊﺮﺍﺟﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻭﺿﻊ‬ ‫‪ −‬ﻋﺪﻡ ﻛﻔﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﻳﻀﺮ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬ ‫• ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺟﻴﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺟﻴﻪ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻭﻣﺮﻧﺔ ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﺴﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ‪.‬‬ ‫• ﺃﺗﺎﺣﺖ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺸﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻫﺎﻣﹼ ﺔ ﺣﻴﺚ‬ ‫‪ −‬ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﺧﻠﺖ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﺇﺛﺮﺍﺀ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ‪/‬ﺳﺒﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺻﻌﺐ ﻭﺫﻭ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ‪/‬ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ −‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺄﺗﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻜﺲ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﰋ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ −‬ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺗﺒﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﻳﺨﻠﻖ ﺍﳋﺒﺮﺓ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ‬ ‫• ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﺗﻨﺴﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻹﺑﻼﻍ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻸﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ −‬ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺿﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﳒﺤﺖ ﺃﺛﻨﺎﺀ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺰﺍﺣﻢ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﻣﻠﻜﻴﺘﻪ‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪ −‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﺖ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺁﺳﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺻﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺤﻮ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺑﲔ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﻭﺿﻊ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﻠﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫• ﳒﺢ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺞ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺳﻬﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﳕﻮ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﻔﻴﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﻋﺮﻳﻀﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻭﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺗﻲ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ −‬ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻓﻌﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻤﻤﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ‬ ‫ﻗﺪ ﺗﻬﺒﻂ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺣﲔ ﻳﺘﻢ‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺠﻴﺐ ﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻭﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺎﺩﻱ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺒﻠﺪ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺟﺎﺭﹴ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﻌﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻡ ﻣﻨﻈﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ −‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﻄﺔ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﲢﺎﻛﻲ ﺣﻠﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ −‬ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺗﺘﻴﺢ ﺩﺭﻭﺱ ﺳﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﻭﻗﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻮﺍﰋ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪23‬‬ ‫|‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﹼ ﺓ ﺗﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺛﺒﺖ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺟﻊ‬ ‫‪World Bank. 2009. “Low Carbon Development for Mexico (MEDEC).” PowerPoint presented at the‬‬ ‫”‪World Bank Workshop, “Low Carbon Growth Country Studies: Emerging Lessons and Results,‬‬ ‫‪.Washington, DC, September 10‬‬ ‫‪World Bank. 2009. “Low Carbon Development Options: Indonesia Country Study.” PowerPoint‬‬ ‫‪presented at the World Bank Workshop, “Low Carbon Growth Country Studies: Emerging Lessons‬‬ ‫‪and Results,” Washington, DC, September 10.‬‬ ‫‪“.World Bank. 2009. “Low Carbon Growth in India: Bottom-up Capacity Building‬‬ ‫‪PowerPoint presented at the World Bank Workshop, “Low Carbon Growth Country Studies: Emerging‬‬ ‫‪.Lessons and Results,” Washington, DC, September 10‬‬ ‫‪World Bank. 2009. “Low Carbon Study: South Africa.” PowerPoint presented at the World Bank‬‬ ‫‪Workshop, “Low Carbon Growth Country Studies: Emerging Lessons and Results,” Washington, DC,‬‬ ‫‪.September 10‬‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺃﺳﻤﺎﺀ ﻣﺨﺘﺼﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺃﺳﺘﺮﺍﻟﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪ANU‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺘﺮﺍﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪AusAID‬‬ ‫ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻠﻲ‬ ‫‪BLUM‬‬ ‫ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﻴﻔﺔ‬ ‫‪CDM‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻟﻠﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬ ‫‪CGE‬‬ ‫ﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺃﻛﺴﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫‪CO2‬‬ ‫ﻣﻜﺎﻓﺊ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺃﻛﺴﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫‪CO2e‬‬ ‫ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻣﻨﻮﻟﺚ ﺍﻷﺳﺘﺮﺍﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪CSIRO‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﳕﺮﻛﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪DANIDA‬‬ ‫ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫‪DSM‬‬ ‫ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫‪EE‬‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫‪ESCO‬‬ ‫ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﺇﻣﺪﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‬ ‫‪Eskom‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫‪ESMAP‬‬ ‫ﺇﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﰋ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ‬ ‫‪GDP‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫‪GHG‬‬ ‫ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫‪GoI‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﻣﻔﺎﻭﺿﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪ICONE‬‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫‪Int’l‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﺎﺑﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫‪JICA‬‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﻴﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ‬ ‫‪LEAP‬‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ‬ ‫‪LTMS‬‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫‪MoI‬‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻃﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﺎﻓﺊ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺃﻛﺴﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫‪MtCO2e‬‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ‬ ‫‪NAMA‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫‪NEEA‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪NGO‬‬ ‫ﻛﻬﺮﺿﻮﺋﻲ‬ ‫‪PV‬‬ ‫ﺑﺤﻮﺙ ﻭﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻭﻋﺮﺽ‬ ‫‪RD&D‬‬ ‫ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﻣﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ‬ ‫‪RE‬‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺟﻤﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﻭﺗﺪﻫﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺑﺎﺕ‬ ‫‪REDD‬‬ ‫ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﻟﻠﻔﺤﻢ ﺍﳊﺠﺮﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ‬ ‫‪Sasol‬‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ‬ ‫‪SIM Brazil‬‬ ‫ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺻﻐﻴﺮﺓ ﻭﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ‬ ‫‪SME‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻷﱈ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﺍﻹﳕﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫‪UNDP‬‬ ‫ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﱈ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫‪UNFCCC‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫|‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭ ﺗﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﻼﻑ‪iStockphoto :‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ ‪Dominic Sansoni / World Bank :8‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ ‪Gennadiy Ratushenko / World Bank :10‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ ‪Jim Pickerell / World Bank :17‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻤﻴﻢ‪Naylor Design, Inc. :‬‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻊ ﻣﺤﻔﻮﻇﺔ © ﺳﺒﺘﻤﺒﺮ‪/‬ﺃﻳﻠﻮﻝ ‪2009‬‬ ‫‪The International Bank for Reconstruction‬‬ ‫‪and Development/THE WORLD BANK GROUP‬‬ ‫‪1818 H Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20433, USA‬‬ ‫ﻳﺠﻮﺯ ﻧﺴﺦ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻧﺸﺮ ﻧﺺ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻄﺒﻮﻋﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺟﺰﺋﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻳﺔ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺗﻌﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺮ ﻫﺎﺩﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺮﺑﺢ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺫﻥ ﺧﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺔ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪ .‬ﺗﺮﺳﻞ ﻃﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺫﻥ ﻻﺳﺘﻨﺴﺎﺥ ﺃﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﺃﻭ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﲡﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺸﺠﻊ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻧﺸﺮ ﻭﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﺆﻟﻔﺎﺗﻪ ﻭﳝﻨﺢ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﺫﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻘﺪﹼ ﺭ ﻣﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﺳﺘﻼﻡ ﻧﺴﺨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻄﺒﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄﺒﻮﻋﺔ ﻛﻤﺼﺪﺭ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺭﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭ ﺗﻈﻞ ﻣﻠﻜﺎ ﹰ ﳌﺼﺪﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﻻ ﻳﺠﻮﺯ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﻷﻱ ﻏﺮﺽ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺇﺫﻥ ﺧﻄﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻲ ﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻓﻲ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ )‪ (ESMAP‬ﻫﻮ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ‬ ‫)‪ (CF-Assist‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﻮﹼﻟﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻓﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﳌﻲ ﻳﺪﻳﺮﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻵﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺴﻤﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﲟﻮﺟﺐ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺣﻠﻮﻝ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻭﺗﻮﻛﻮﻝ ﻛﻴﻮﺗﻮ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺪﺍﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺣﺒﺔ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ‬ ‫ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﺪﺍﻣﺔ ﺑﻴﺌﻴﺎ ﹰ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺺ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺮ ﻭﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺃﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺮﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻉ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻙ ﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻣﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﳕﻮﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ‬‫‪ CF-Assist‬ﺭﺍ ﹴ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﳕﻮﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻏﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻦ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ‬ ‫ﺑﺘﻐﻴﹼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ‪ ،‬ﻳﺮﺟﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ www.es-map.org‬ﺃﻭ ﺇﺭﺳﺎﻝ ﺭﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬ ‫‪Carbon Finance-Assist Program‬‬ ‫‪Energy Sector Management Assistance Program‬‬ ‫‪World Bank Institute‬‬ ‫‪The World Bank‬‬ ‫‪1818 H Street, NW‬‬ ‫‪1818 H Street, NW‬‬ ‫‪Washington, DC 20433 USA‬‬ ‫‪Washington, DC 20433 USA‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻲ‪cfassist@worldbank.org :‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ‪www.cfassist.org :‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻲ‪esmap@worldbank.org :‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ‪www.esmap.org :‬‬