JOBS WORKING PAPER Issue No. 4 Zambia: A Review of the World Bank Group Jobs Portfolio Sudha Bala Krishnan and Teresa Peterburs WORK LET’S A global partnership to create more & better private sector jobs © 2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA. Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org. Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Images: © World Bank Zambia. Further permission required for reuse. 2 ABSTRACT This report analyzes the World Bank Group (WBG) portfolio in Zambia focused on jobs, referred to as the Jobs Portfolio, regarding its impact on outcomes related to Job Creation, Job Quality, and Job Access. The review is presented within the context of Zambia’s jobs priorities: more good-quality jobs with traditionally disadvantaged groups benefitting from opportunities to work. It finds that the Jobs Portfolio is more focused on intermediate-level outcomes related to jobs, such as improving access to markets and firm performance. A range of intervention types contributes to Job Creation (66 percent of the reviewed portfolio), Job Quality (47 percent), and Job Access (51 percent). Activities focused on spatial development in value chains tend to support Job Creation in the formal sector. Job Quality outcomes include enhanced worker productivity in informal agriculture where the majority of Zambians still work. The WBG has primarily supported Job Access through targeted interventions in lagging regions. Further, the combined portfolios of the WBG and Let’s Work Partners show greater coverage of a range of Job Quality and Job Access outcomes. Areas for future support to improve job outcomes include macroeconomic and regulatory support, skills development, and targeted support for vulnerable populations and youth in particular. In addition, projects need to be reinforced by sound monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems tracking results explicitly related to jobs. 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The World Bank Group (WBG)’s Jobs Group prepared this report. The principal authors are Sudha Bala Krishnan (Task Team Leader) and Teresa Peterburs. Emily Yan (Consultant) and Vanya Pasheva (Consultant) provided invaluable assistance. The report was prepared under the general direction and ongoing support of David Robalino (Manager, Jobs Group), Siv Tokle (Senior Operations Officer, Jobs Group), and Mary Hallward-Driemeier (Senior Economic Advisor, Trade and Competitiveness). Many colleagues in the WBG, including the Zambia Country Office, provided excellent input, comments, and guidance at various stages of the analysis. The authors are particularly grateful to World Bank Country Manager, Ina-Marlene Ruthenberg, for her ongoing support. The authors acknowledge the rich comments the reviewer of this document provided: Paolo Belli (Program Leader, Africa Region). The team expresses thanks in particular to Henry Sichembe (Program Coordinator, Let’s Work Partnership in Zambia). The Let’s Work Partnership in Zambia is made possible through a grant from the World Bank’s Jobs Umbrella Trust Fund, which is supported by the Department for International Development/UK AID; and the Governments of Norway, Germany, and Austria; the Austrian Development Agency; and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency. Let’s Work is a global partnership that unites organizations dedicated to providing effective solutions to the global jobs crisis by harnessing the potential of the private sector to help create more and better jobs that are inclusive. Let’s Work partners include the African Development Bank Group (AfDB), Asian Development Bank Group (ADB), Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF), Department for International Development (DfID), European Investment Bank (EIB), European Development Finance Institutions (EDFIs), Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), International Labour Organization (ILO), International Youth Foundation (IYF), Islamic Corporation for Development of Private Sector (ICD), Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Netherlands, Overseas Development Institute (ODI), Private Infrastructure Development Group (PIDG), Swiss Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), World Bank Group (WBG), and World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD). The authors thank Let’s Work colleagues for regular feedback and advice on this work. 4 CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................................................4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................7 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 11 2. ZAMBIA COUNTRY AND JOBS CONTEXT ........................................................................................ 14 3. PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................... 16 3.1 WBG Operations Mapped to Job Outcomes......................................................................................... 17 3.2 WBG Commitment Amounts Mapped to Job Outcomes ...................................................................... 23 3.3 WBG and Donor Operations Mapped to Job Outcomes....................................................................... 25 3.4 Jobs-relevance of WBG M&E Systems .................................................................................................. 27 4. RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................................... 29 4.1 Priority Interventions ............................................................................................................................ 29 4.2 Jobs-focused M&E Systems .................................................................................................................. 31 ANNEX A: METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................... 33 Key Steps of Portfolio Review ..................................................................................................................... 35 ANNEX B: EXAMPLES OF JOBS-FOCUSED M&E IN WB PROJECTS ........................................................ 39 ANNEX C: DEFINITIONS OF JOB INTERVENTIONS ............................................................................... 43 ANNEX D: DEFINITIONS OF JOB OUTCOMES ...................................................................................... 46 ANNEX E: LIST OF REVIEWED PROJECTS ............................................................................................ 48 BIBLIOGRAPHY................................................................................................................................. 51 5 ABBREVIATIONS AfDB African Development Bank CPF Country Partnership Framework CDD Community-Driven Development CMU Country Management Unit DFID Department for International Development DPO Development Policy Operation FTE Full-Time Equivalent GDP Gross Domestic Product GRZ Government of the Republic of Zambia ICR Implementation Completion and Results ICT information and communication technology IFC International Finance Corporation ILO International Labour Organization JCF Jobs Conceptual Framework LWP Let’s Work Partnership M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MSME Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises NGO Non-Governmental Organization PAD Project Appraisal Document PCN Project Concept Note PDO Project Development Objective PIU Project Implementation Unit SIDA Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency SME Small and Medium Enterprises TTL Task Team Leader TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training WB World Bank WBG World Bank Group 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report reviews the World Bank Group (WBG) portfolio in Zambia focused on jobs, referred to as the Jobs Portfolio,1 in order to assess what the WB can do differently to support future job-rich growth. The portfolio review covers 32 closed, active, and pipeline World Bank (WB) lending and International Financial Corporation (IFC) investment projects related to jobs, which WBG teams articulated during design. The selected projects took place in FY 2006-162, and represent 65 percent of the total WBG portfolio in Zambia during this period. The WBG Jobs Group conducted this analysis in combination with the Zambia Jobs Diagnostic3 that details the country’s jobs challenges from a macro, household, and firm perspective, and a sectoral perspective of job creation potential in agribusiness value chains.4 This work provides a basis for prioritizing job outcomes most relevant in Zambia. By analyzing trends and gaps in the portfolio, this review identifies areas where the WBG could address Zambia’s jobs priorities in line with the Government of the Republic of Zambia’s strategies and policies related to employment.5 The basis for this portfolio review is an evaluative tool known as the Jobs Conceptual Framework (JCF),6 which helps visualize the links between project interventions and job outcomes in a map of the portfolio within a matrix. The JCF considers the types of interventions that the WBG has supported and their potential link to outcomes of (a) job creation in the private sector (Job Creation); (b) improvements in the quality of informal sector jobs (Job Quality); and (c) lower barriers to access jobs for vulnerable population groups (Job Access). The analysis highlights that the WBG Jobs Portfolio related to jobs in Zambia has focused on the facilitating factors that contribute to job outcomes. The WBG Jobs Portfolio has largely focused on enhancing access to/working of product markets (71 percent of the reviewed portfolio) and firm performance and investment (62 percent).7 These are considered intermediate results in the JCF, in that they are necessary conditions for jobs but do not directly create jobs, improve job quality, or connect people to jobs. Definitions of job outcomes, including intermediate-level results to jobs, are in Annex D. 1 The total WBG portfolio in Zambia includes 49 projects and has a total budget of $1.9 billion. The WBG Jobs Portfolio represents 65 percent of this portfolio, as regards the number of projects, and 80 percent, as regards the budget amount. The Jobs Portfolio is defined as projects indicating Jobs as a theme in WBG systems as of June 30, 2016, and those identified by the Jobs Group as having an explicit and substantive focus on a jobs challenge. For additional information on the jobs-relevant sample, see Annex A. 2 The WBG fiscal year is defined as July 1 through June 30. Fiscal year (FY) 2016, for instance, refers to July 1, 2015 through June 30, 2016. 3 Merotto, Dino. 2017, forthcoming. Zambia Jobs Diagnostic. A World Bank Study. Washington, DC: World Bank. 4 Krishnan, Sudha Bala; Peterburs, Teresa Anna Maria. 2017. Jobs in value chains - Zambia: Opportunities in agribusiness. Jobs series; no. 6. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. 5 Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry. 2013. Strategy Paper on Industrialisation and Job Creation. Lusaka: Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry; Ministry of Labour and Social Security. 2017, forthcoming. National Employment and Labour Market Policy: Realizing National Vision 2030 Through Inclusive Growth. Lusaka: Ministry of Labour and Social Security. Ministry of National Development Planning. 2017, forthcoming. Zambia Seventh National Development Plan. Lusaka: Ministry of National Development Planning. 6 World Bank. 2017a, forthcoming. A Conceptual Framework for Jobs: Interventions and Outcomes. Washington, DC: World Bank. 7 These statistics include double counting of certain interventions, as one project can contain multiple intervention types and affect one or more outcomes related to jobs. 7 The range of WBG interventions has contributed to these job outcomes for Zambia (see Figure 1)8:  Job Creation: Multiple interventions in the WBG portfolio (66 percent of the reviewed portfolio) have sought to contribute to at least one of the three outcomes related to Job Creation: job creation by employers in the formal sector, new enterprises, and entrepreneurship/self- employment. Analysis shows just 28 percent have focused on job creation by employers in the formal sector.  Job Quality: Outcomes related to improving job quality were in nearly half of total interventions related to jobs (47 percent). These interventions are particularly focused on informal agriculture, where the majority of Zambians still work. Under Job Quality, nearly 57 percent of WBG funding relates to earnings and livelihoods opportunities and over 39 percent to the enhancement of worker productivity, particularly among poor farmers.  Job Access: Improving access and opportunities for jobs was noted in nearly two-thirds of the total portfolio by committed investment amounts and about 40% of the portfolio by project count. There was limited focus on improving labor force participation and the working of the labor market. Intermediate outcomes, as noted, are the focus of the WBG Jobs Portfolio in Zambia in the relative short- to medium-term, with contributing effects to the higher-level outcomes in Job Creation, Job Quality, and Job Access. Given that intermediate outcomes are more easily achievable within a given project timeframe, it seems unsurprising that many projects have focused on supporting conditions for private sector development as a precursor to job outcomes. Similarly, WBG results measurements have focused on articulating intermediate outcomes. Figure 1 Share of Portfolio Contributing to Job Outcomes by Level of Investments 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Intermediat Access to/ Working of Product Markets 71% Firm Performance/ Investment 62% e Human Capital 25% Job Access Job Quality Job Creation Job Creation by Employers 28% New Enterprises 32% Entrepreneurs/ Self-employed 28% Worker Productivity 39% Working Conditions and Benefits 1% Earnings/ Livelihoods 57% Labor force participation 2% Working of labor market 0% Access and Opportunity for Jobs 64% Source: World Bank staff calculations based on data from 2016. 8 The percentage shares of the total WBG portfolio in Zambia related to jobs do not sum to 100% since a given project-level intervention may affect multiple job outcomes. 8 The WBG Zambia Jobs Portfolio analysis shows a concentration of activities in the energy and mining infrastructure, representing the number of interventions and committed lending volumes. In terms of number of interventions, projects with a component of financial access and entrepreneurship account for a substantial share of the portfolio.9 Analyzing the portfolio according to committed lending amounts yields a slightly different picture. There is greater focus on transport (22 percent of the total lending allocation but 12.5 percent of number of interventions) and skills and training (25 percent). Both the number and volumes of interventions must be taken into account given the often disproportionately large investment volumes in infrastructure. Many sub-sectors within infrastructure often require explicit thinking on jobs beyond direct effects such as in the construction of a new project. The Jobs Portfolio of the Let’s Work Partnership10 (LWP) partners (referred to as donors) in Zambia have focused more on Job Quality and Job Access outcomes. Of the 10 donor projects reviewed, the focus is primarily on activities that support micro, small, and medium enterprise (MSME) development to raise productivity with a focus on supporting linkages to agricultural value chains from rural, poorer parts of the country. Examples include linking large commercial agro-processors, often in Lusaka, with smallholder farmers and agribusinesses in remote markets across Zambia to improve access for agricultural inputs, products, and financing. The activities of the LWP in the agriculture and agribusiness sector are diverse but have a common theme of supporting jobs through more and better opportunities for smallholder farmers in particular. Similarly, value chain development efforts are underway to support Zambia’s building construction sector’s linkages to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with potential to create jobs for youth.11 The analysis highlights several gaps in the WBG portfolio that require particular focus for a jobs strategy in Zambia: macroeconomic/regulatory support, skills development beyond selected sectors, and targeted support for vulnerable populations. Currently, only three projects12 target youth, with just over $96 million or 6.4 percent of the portfolio despite Zambia’s demographics challenge. Further, the areas where the WBG has concentrated activities typically lack job metrics at the project level. While the use of indicators in project results frameworks has not been a corporate requirement, it is challenging to articulate the contribution of WBG activities toward jobs solutions without tracking job-related results. In addition, impact evaluations could be an area for investment in order to assess the longer-term and higher-level results on jobs that are often difficult to attribute to project activities, such as jobs created. 9 The respective shares of the portfolio include energy/mining (19%), finance/financial system (19%), and MSME/ entrepreneurship (16%) according to number of interventions. 10 The LWP is a global alliance of donors to promote more, better, and inclusive jobs through leveraging the role of the private sector. Source: www.letswork.org 11 At 62 percent, Zambian youth (ages 15–35) are a large share of the total labor force. 12 World Bank. 2015. Girls Education and Women’s Empowerment and Livelihood Project. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project ID P151451. Washington, DC: World Bank; World Bank. 2017. Zambia Education Sector Enhancement Project. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project ID P158570.; World Bank. 2011. Irrigation Development and Support Project. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project ID P102459. 9 To support a new generation of WBG operations focused on solutions for jobs, this review makes a number of policy and operational recommendations:  Macro-fiscal stabilization: As WBG and LWP engagement in macro and regulatory support is limited, the WBG could ramp up support to the government to foster inclusive growth and job creation, for instance, in the context of the Seventh National Development Plan. A Development Policy Operation (DPO) series focused on jobs as a cross-cutting topic could be one way to support macro-fiscal adjustments.  Skills and education: Targeted support in human capital development is needed beyond the focus of the current portfolio on agricultural training. Expanding access to technical and vocational education and training (TVET) and improving the quality of secondary education can help meet growing demand for skills in the construction and tourism sectors.  Infrastructure investments: The WBG should maintain the portfolio’s focus on energy, transport, and irrigation infrastructure. This is particularly important for rural and lagging areas in order to create access to markets. Increased consideration of job outcomes in project design and implementation can further enhance the impact of infrastructure interventions on jobs results, such as income and job opportunities in secondary towns.  Spatial development/value chain development: High-potential value chains, such as agribusiness and construction, hold great potential for jobs results. Greater investments will be required to create market linkages that unlock job creation, result in productivity growth, and encourage labor mobility.  Job opportunities for the most vulnerable: There should be greater focus on vulnerable groups, especially on youth, women, and lagging regions. Youth (aged 15-24) are a significant and increasing share of the working population, and are becoming less likely to be employed.13 Explicit attention is needed to ensure activities designed as jobs solutions for youth, and particularly girls. Women are less likely to find private waged work, less likely to be self-employed farmers, and much more likely to be unpaid family workers. In addition, geographical targeting may need consideration as the WBG is not active in select areas of high poverty density, such as the Northern Province. As a cross-cutting recommendation, projects need to be reinforced by sound monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems tracking results related to jobs, including but not limited to Job Creation. A prospective causal chain linking WBG activities to job outcomes must be examined, which can help with both assessing progress in achieving results on jobs over time and designing data collection systems with clients. In addition, teams may need to ramp up investing in impact evaluations to measure jobs created, changes in worker productivity, incomes and poverty status, and gender and youth disaggregated analysis for job access to shed light on the effectiveness of various WBG interventions for jobs. 13Over half (52 percent) the Zambian population in 2014 was of working age, and about 21 percent of working age Zambians were youth. Merotto, Dino Leonardo. 2017. Zambia - Jobs diagnostic. Job series; issue no. 7. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. 10 1. INTRODUCTION This report reviews the World Bank Group (WBG)’s portfolio in Zambia that is jobs-relevant, referred to as the Jobs Portfolio, in order to examine what the WBG can do differently to support future job-rich growth.14 The review identifies areas of focus over the past decade and gaps in the WBG portfolio in Zambia that should be considered when planning future lending and investments. This analysis will inform the forthcoming Country Partnership Framework15 (CPF) by providing guidance on the operations in Zambia that could be prioritized for supporting the jobs agenda. The report also aims to identify how monitoring and evaluation (M&E) tools can support effective design and implementation of jobs-focused projects. The WBG Jobs Groups conducted this analysis in combination with the Zambia Jobs Diagnostic16 that details the country’s jobs challenges, and with a study of value chain potential for job creation.17 By analyzing trends and gaps in the portfolio, the review points to areas where the WBG could address Zambia’s jobs priorities, in response to the Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ)’s strategies and policies related to employment. This portfolio review draws on a new evaluative tool that the WBG’s Jobs Group developed: the Jobs Conceptual Framework (JCF). The JCF18 is an overarching framework that links common WBG interventions with their potential to affect jobs-related outcomes. These outcomes focus on three dimensions: (a) creating job opportunities in the formal sector (Job Creation); (b) enhancing quality and productivity in the informal sector (Job Quality); and (c) promoting access to jobs for women, young people, and the bottom 40 percent (Job Access). Job Access also refers to job access in lagging regions that have limited natural, human, or productive capital endowments, or are in geographic locations with limited connectivity. In addition, select intermediate outcomes for jobs are included, as these are often preconditions for achieving results related to Job Creation, Job Quality, and Job Access. Figure 2 elaborates on these jobs-related outcomes, and Annexes C and D provide definitions of the job interventions and job outcomes, respectively. The WBG analyzed a range of interventions based on a typology across macro-, meso-, and micro-levels targeting individuals and firms. 14 This report uses the World Development Report 2013 definition of a job, which comprises various types of income-generating activities, including informal wage work, self-employment, farming, and sustainable livelihoods. 15 A Country Partnership Framework (CPF) is the central tool of management and the board for reviewing and guiding the WBG’s country programs and gauging their effectiveness. The CPF identifies the key objectives and development results through which the WBG intends to support a member country in its efforts to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. The CPF then outlines a selective and flexible program that will help the country achieve the CPF objectives over a five- year period. 16 Merotto, 2017. 17 Krishnan and Peterburs, 2017. 18 World Bank 2017a, forthcoming. 11 Figure 2 Key Jobs-Related Outcomes Source: World Bank. 2017b. forthcoming. Monitoring & Evaluation for Jobs Operations: An Introduction to the Jobs M&E Toolkit. This analysis covers jobs-relevant World Bank (WB) lending and International Financial Corporation (IFC) investment projects over FY 2006-16, and active projects and programs of the Let’s Work Partnership (LWP) as of 2016.19 This includes 32 closed, active, and pipeline WB lending and IFC investment projects related to jobs in FY2006-16, representing 65 percent of all projects in the country in this period (80 percent of the total amount invested), and 10 LWP projects. Jobs projects in the WBG portfolio include projects the WBG teams have tagged indicating jobs as a key theme;20 and projects the Jobs Group has reviewed as having an explicit and substantive link to job outcomes.21 The LWP’s Jobs Portfolio was identified through desk review of publicly available project information to identify relevance to jobs. The portfolio identified as job-relevant was then validated with respective LWP institutions in Zambia: the African Development Bank (AfDB), the U.K. Department for International Development (DFID), the International Labour Organization (ILO), the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), and the Finnish Fund for Industrial Cooperation. Annex A provides details on the methodology used in this portfolio review. 19 This review analyzes the jobs focus of the operational lending and investment portfolio and associated outcomes, and therefore does not include the WB’s Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) work. For the purpose of consistency across WB and IFC adviso ry engagements, IFC advisory projects have been excluded, even though it is recognized that many are client-facing and may be jobs-relevant. 20 Projects that are tagged in WBG systems with the jobs theme have an explicitly stated and substantive link to creating more, better, and/or inclusive jobs. 21 The identification of projects as related to jobs by the Jobs Group is based on an in-depth review of project design and results frameworks articulated by WBG teams in project documents. 12 For the remainder of this paper, Section 2 provides the country and jobs background in Zambia; Section 3 analyzes the WBG and LWP operations by the number of interventions and by commitment amount; and Section 4 presents recommendations for future interventions and M&E systems. 13 2. ZAMBIA COUNTRY AND JOBS CONTEXT This report presents analysis within the country and jobs contexts in Zambia, to provide a perspective on recent economic trends with implications for jobs policies and programs. This section details the main findings of the Zambia Jobs Diagnostic regarding the Zambian economy in general and the labor market in particular, relevant to the portfolio review. The aim is to highlight the key job outcomes in the JCF where particular focus is needed in the context of Zambia’s jobs challenges. Zambia’s economy has been growing at a sufficient pace to create employment for the youthful population, but is failing to create enough good jobs in high-productivity sectors. Despite a rapidly growing workforce and unprecedented economic growth from 2000 to 2013, the headcount poverty has not improved. The proportion of people falling below $1.90 per day in 2011 purchasing power parity (PPP) (i.e., the international poverty line) rose to 64 percent in 2010, despite annualized average real economic growth of nearly 9 percent. The jobs created in this period have been mostly in low-productivity sectors, as the economy remains largely rural, agricultural, and informal. Economic transformation is underway, based on structural change, urbanization, and formalization22, but progress has been slow, and productivity is declining. Employment in Zambia has been shifting to urban-based jobs in services and, to a lesser extent, industry. At the same time, the rural economy seems to be formalizing, with an increase in formal jobs in agriculture, presumably on commercial farms and in agro-processing. Labor productivity in agriculture is a key determinant of prosperity for the rural poor, as more than 50 percent of Zambian workers and around 80 percent of poor Zambians are in agriculture, according to the 2010 population census. Annualized average growth in value added per employee in agriculture in Zambia was negative and declining until 2008. Only after 2008 did average labor productivity in agriculture begin to grow, but movement of labor out of agriculture and into services and industry caused part of the increase. Many new jobs are in the informal sector in urban centers, where underemployment23 is rising, especially for youth. It has been mostly young people who moved to the urban areas and found employment in the service sectors. There have been healthy signs of increases in the shares of both formal and waged jobs in Zambia. However, the bulk of the new jobs in urban-based services are in the informal sector. By 2012 in urban areas, over 90 percent of youth underemployment was in service sectors, compared with around 40 percent in 2008. The average number of hours worked by an informal service worker in urban areas fell as more and more young people moved to towns and cities. Consequently, earnings gaps in Zambia have widened. This includes earnings gap between formal and informal workers, between rural and urban workers, between regions in the country, and between unskilled and skilled workers. Women, especially young women, are moving into services or staying in unproductive agriculture. Gaps also widened between public sector workers and the private sector, as the 22 In 2010 the data suggest that only 17 percent of Zambian employment was in waged work, and of this only 13 percent was formal and just 7 percent was private and formal (6 percent, roughly half of the formal waged workers, were public sector workers). Merotto, 2017. 23 Underemployment is defined as working less than 35 hours per week. Merotto, 2017. 14 government granted quite generous pay rises. These dual trends – in productivity and earnings – are reflected in rising inequality in Zambia. They also partially explain why, despite globally high gross domestic product (GDP) growth, Zambia has been less successful in reducing poverty than several African countries whose economies have grown more slowly. Zambia will need to create more formal jobs and improve the productivity of informal jobs. In the context of slowing growth, lower copper prices, and lower tax revenues, government policies need to prioritize job outcomes. The three pillars of recommendations of the Zambia Jobs Diagnostic24 in support of Zambia’s jobs strategy are structured around desired job outcomes of Job Creation, Job Quality, and Job Access:  Job Creation: More jobs are required in the formal sector. In order to achieve this, the country needs a stable macro-fiscal framework and a business environment that allows existing firms to grow and encourages new firms to be created. Moreover, sectoral support should be provided to targeted value chains, and human capital development needs to be prioritized to expand secondary school enrolment and to strengthen technical and vocational education and training (TVET).  Job Quality: Raising productivity is essential to achieve higher incomes and thus reduce poverty. This holds particularly true for agricultural productivity, as most of Zambia’s poor continue to be employed in agriculture. It is, therefore, important to improve rural energy, transport, and irrigation infrastructure; to strengthen smallholders’ market linkages; and to provide them with access to capital.  Job Access: Youthful Zambia is growing rapidly, and the country will need to create jobs for those entering the labor market. Value chains such as the construction sector have great potential to create jobs for young people and should be supported in order to unlock growth. Moreover, it is important to create an environment in which young Zambians can create productive businesses. The next section on portfolio analysis is in the context of these job outcomes, with emphasis on these priorities for Zambia: more jobs of good quality with traditionally disadvantaged groups benefitting from opportunities to work. 24 Merotto, 2017. 15 3. PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS The WBG Jobs Portfolio25 in Zambia covers 32 closed, active, and pipeline WB lending and IFC investment projects26 in the period FY 2006-16, with a total investment of $1.5 billion.27 This sub-set represents 65 percent of the total number of projects in Zambia for this period (see Figure 3).28 The list of jobs projects within the WBG Zambia portfolio is in Annex E. This analysis of the WBG Jobs Portfolio in Zambia draws upon an evaluative tool known as the JCF. The JCF was applied with inputs from the WBG country team, Jobs Group economists, and technical experts in various sectors. Three dimensions of analysis are (a) the number of interventions affecting various job outcomes as WBG teams articulated in the design stage; (b) the WB lending or IFC investment amounts in U.S. dollars of these interventions per each job outcome; and (c) areas where the WBG and LWP are active to identify concentrations and gaps. Each level of analysis is presented in a color-coded visual portfolio map throughout this section (see Figure 6, Figure 8, and Figure 10). Figure 3 Jobs-Relevant WBG Zambia Portfolio, FY 2006-16 Source: World Bank staff calculations based on data from 2016. 25 This includes all projects tagged on jobs in the internal WBG system as of June 30, 2016. In addition, the Jobs Group reviewed the Project Development Objective (PDO) and project description (components) in the project documentation in order to identify jobs-relevant projects. The type of project documentation reviewed differed according to project status: for active projects, the portfolio team reviewed Project Appraisal Documents (PADs) - or Project Concept Notes (PCNs) if no PADs were available, for pipeline projects the team reviewed PCNs, and for closed projects the team reviewed Implementation Completion and Results reports (ICRs). The project universe is obtained from Projects & Operations: The World Bank, available at http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/projects-portfolio; Annex A provides details on the methodology. 26 Due to their similarity in Project Development Objective (PDO) and design, the three phases of the Poverty Reduction Support Credit (PRSC1-3) (P107218, P117370, and P126349) are combined for the purpose of this review. PRSC 1-3 are counted as one project with an investment amount spanning the project sizes of all three phases. 27 The calculation of portfolio amounts takes into account the amount of World Bank Group commitments and excludes Trust Funds and external donors’ shares. 28 The total WBG portfolio in Zambia includes 49 projects and has a total budget of $1.9 billion. The WBG Jobs Portfolio represents 65 percent of this portfolio, for the number of projects, and 80 percent of the budget amount (32 projects with committed amounts of $1.5 billion). 16 The main sector focus of the WBG Jobs Portfolio in Zambia is agriculture (26 percent) and energy and extractives (25 percent) (see Figure 5). Combined with transport (18 percent), these sectors account for approximately 70 percent of the total value of projects. Active projects constitute 49 percent of the analyzed investments ($728 million), 32 percent are in the pipeline ($478 million), and 19 percent are closed ($284 million). Figures 4 and 5 Number of Reviewed Jobs Projects, by WB/IFC Department; Total Value of Reviewed Jobs Projects (US$, million), by WB/IFC Department 6 $300 5 $250 4 $200 3 2 $150 1 $100 0 $50 IFC Infra. & Nat. Resources Transport & ICT Agriculture Education Macroec. & Fiscal Mgmt. IFC Financial Inst. Group Envir. & Nat. Resources Energy & Extractives IFC Mftg., Agribusiness, Services Social Protection & Labor $0 IFC Infra. & Nat. Resources Agriculture Macroec. & Fiscal Mgmt. Transport & ICT Education IFC Financial Inst. Group Envir. & Nat. Resources IFC Mftg., Agribusiness, Services Energy & Extractives Social Protection & Labor Active Pipeline Closed Source: World Bank staff calculations based on data from 2016. 3.1 WBG OPERATIONS MAPPED TO JOB OUTCOMES The portfolio has primarily focused on outcomes related to jobs at an intermediate level. Such intermediate outcomes include access to/working of product markets; firm performance; and, to a lesser degree, human capital development. The portfolio map in Figure 6 presents the 32 projects reviewed disaggregated in 43 interventions, which refer to specific project components.29 The most frequently supported interventions are in energy and mining infrastructure, access to finance or support to financial systems, and livelihoods/CDD, 30 and skills and livelihoods (19% or 6 projects have components in one or 29 While the sample for the review contains 32 projects, some projects count toward multiple intervention types, resulting in 43 interventions overall. 30 Community-driven development (CDD) refers to an approach that gives control over planning decisions and investment resources for local development projects to community groups. The World Bank has used the CDD approach across a range of countries to support a variety of urgent needs: water supply and sewerage rehabilitation; school and health post construction, nutrition programs for mothers and infants; building of rural access roads and support for micro-enterprise. Source: CDD Overview, accessed at go.worldbank.org/S52WSQKID0. 17 more of these interventions).31 The most frequently prioritized outcomes are access to and working of product markets and firm performance / investment (71% and 62% by investment amount respectively) as well as inclusive jobs (64% of investment) and earnings /livelihoods (57% of investment). The priority job outcomes for Zambia identified in the Zambia Jobs Diagnostic are highlighted in yellow. Figure 6 Portfolio Map of WBG Operations (FY 2006-16), by Number of Interventions Source: World Bank staff calculations based on data from 2016. Intermediate Outcomes Intermediate outcomes are deemed as jobs-relevant when they support firms’ ability to perform better, grow, and hire more workers.32 This can be achieved by improving access to/working of product markets, 31 The count includes six energy/mining interventions, six finance/financial system interventions, six livelihoods/CDD interventions, six skills and training interventions, five MSME/entrepreneurship interventions, four transport, four spatial development, two irrigation, one land, one public administration and governance, one business regulation intervention, and one trade and investment policy intervention. 32 In the case of infrastructure, the contribution toward jobs can be direct (those employed by the project itself) and indirect (those supplying inputs to the project). For energy and mining, for instance, a further distinction could be made between workers in the construction phase and those in the operation and maintenance phase. In most cases, the indirect effects are significantly greater, but almost more challenging to measure in terms of the extent of earnings growth and the actual beneficiaries. The availability of an input-output (IO) table would be needed to link the outputs of the project sector to all the supply sectors (indirect effects) and calculate the various multiplier effects. In Zambia, efforts by government with the support of the ILO are underway to develop a national social accounting matrix (SAM) using new IO tables that can support future such jobs estimation from such 18 promoting firm performance, and strengthening human capital. From a jobs perspective, intermediate outcomes are not the primary focus of this analysis, but are important to examine due to the high concentration of WBG activities to date seeking to achieve these results. The main interventions aiming to strengthen intermediate outcomes are investments in: - energy/mining infrastructure; - access to finance or support to financial system development; - spatial development, including value chain development,; and - MSME/entrepreneurship projects. Infrastructure for energy is required to boost firm performance and the working of product markets. Due to extensive and daily power cuts in the country,33 Zambian households, farms, and SMEs are constrained in performance and expansion, which has implications for creating and maintaining employment. A number of energy projects34 are focused on increasing electricity generation capacity. The Guarantee for Scaling Solar Project, for instance, aims to “support the Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ) to increase its electricity generation capacity and diversify its electricity generation resources.”35 Existing and potential electricity consumers are expected to benefit as the excess generation capacity from reduced load shedding will connect additional consumers to electricity. Yet while this review included many of the energy projects as relevant to jobs, few track outcomes on jobs in their results frameworks. As with many jobs projects reviewed, jobs indicators may not have been available to select from at the time of project design; the results chain to job outcomes may have been indirect; or monitoring such data may not have been feasible. Without supporting data, it is not possible to determine whether employment, productivity, or the profile of workers among beneficiary firms have changed. WBG support to enhancing firm performance includes interventions for access to finance, such as IFC investments in Zambian financial institutions.36 The ZANACO project is an example of a project contributing to the jobs agenda through increasing access to finance for SMEs, especially in the agricultural sector. 37 It aims to expand lending in less developed and rural regions of Zambia, where many farmers and SMEs face difficulties in accessing working capital for inputs and infrastructure to grow their enterprises. While jobs are not explicitly mentioned in project documents, IFC’s investment is investments. Source: Bacon, Robert and Masami Kojima. 2011. Issues in Estimating the Employment Generated by Energy Sector Activities. A World Bank Study. Washington, DC: World Bank. 33 A growing shortfall in energy supply has been exacerbated in 2015 by a reduction in hydroelectric generation due to low water levels at the country’s main reservoirs. This has increased power outages and impacted on all aspects of the economy, contributing to slower economic growth in 2015 and higher production costs. Through 2016, ZESCO, the state energy company, has expanded rolling black-outs (load-shedding) to at least eight hours per day on a rotational basis for the majority of its household, commercial, and industrial consumers. Source: World Bank. 2015c. 6th Zambia Economic Brief: Powering the Zambian Economy. A World Bank Study. Washington, DC: World Bank. 34 Kafue-Muzuma-Victoria Falls Regional Transmission Line Reinforcement Project (P124351), Lusaka Transmission and Distribution Rehabilitation Project (P133184), Guarantee for Scaling Solar (P157943), Zambia Increased Access to Electricity Services (P077452), SS Zambia (37811). 35 World Bank. 2017. Guarantee for Scaling Solar. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project ID P157943. 36 AB Zambia (28186), Access Zambia (32196), Bayport Zambia (33794), FNB Zambia (36658), ZANACO (28361), Zoona (38220), Madison Group (25537). 37 International Finance Corporation. 2010. ZANACO. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project number 28361. 19 strengthening Zambia’s agricultural finance market, which is arguably an important outcome for SMEs to access finance, grow, and create jobs. This is representative of IFC’s work in the sector, which has focused on improved access to financial markets more broadly, rather than on targeted direct support for SME performance for job creation. Multiple WBG interventions target economic empowerment and sustainable livelihoods for Zambians, yet there is a limited focus on developing human capital.38 The Girls’ Education and Women’s Empowerment and Livelihoods Project39 is just one example that focuses on developing the human capital of poor and vulnerable women and girls. For working age women, the project aims to increase the productivity of their livelihood activities and, through this, their earnings. Further, the project encourages young girls to complete their secondary education by covering schooling fees. The project invests in understanding solutions to jobs challenges through an impact evaluation, including on how different types of capital (financial, human, social) contribute to women’s long-term earnings, helping to assess contributions to Job Quality and Job Access outcomes. Job Creation Job Creation, as specified under the JCF, includes increasing job creation in the formal sector, supporting the creation of new enterprises, and promoting entrepreneurs/self-employed. This discussion primarily focuses on job creation in the formal sector as a priority sub-outcome for Zambia, based on recommendations from the Zambia Jobs Diagnostic. The contribution in the portfolio to new enterprises and entrepreneurship/self-employed is also analyzed. A range of interventions support job creation in the formal sector, predominantly targeted by spatial development interventions that include a specific aim to strengthen spatial connectivity, agglomeration, or value chains. While investments in financial, transport, energy, and irrigation infrastructure contribute to job creation in the formal sector, with one or two interventions each, spatial development is the most frequently occurring type of intervention, with four. The sectoral focus of these interventions is agribusiness, as projects aim to strengthen the supply chains of successful agribusinesses, while expanding employment opportunities. For instance, the Agrivision project40 supports the large-scale commercial farming of wheat, soy, maize, and milling. It aims to transfer technical knowledge on farming best practices and contributes to direct employment for over 670 employees in the firm’s Zambia operations. The construction sector presents another high-potential value chain for job creation. Additional WBG support for this sector could unlock earning opportunities, especially for poorer Zambians with lower education levels and youth. Investments in energy infrastructure primarily address facilitating the creation of new enterprises, and support to MSMEs primarily targets supporting entrepreneurs/self-employed. As noted, power outages constitute a major constraint for existing firms and similarly raise the transaction costs to create new 38 Strengthening Climate Resilience (P127254), COMACO Landscape Management (P144254), Girl’s Education and Women’s Empowerment and Livelihoods (P151451), Displaced Persons and Border Communities (P152821), Environment and Mining Project (P154683), Integrated Forest Landscape Program (P144827). 39 World Bank. 2015. Girls Education and Women’s Empowerment and Livelihood Project. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project ID P151451. 40 International Finance Corporation. 2015. Agrivision Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project number 34461. 20 enterprises. Five interventions in energy/mining infrastructure target this issue, such as the recently approved Guarantee for Scaling Solar Project41 that seeks to address power shortages by increasing the reliability and security of electricity supply. MSME/entrepreneurship interventions primarily target the outcome of entrepreneurs/self-employed. Often in the agricultural sector, these projects equip potential entrepreneurs with knowledge and capital in support of self-employment. The Livestock Development and Health Project42 is an interesting example of a project that provides support to self-employed smallholder producers. Rehabilitation of livestock infrastructure, such as slaughter facilities, and on-farm investments are providing opportunities for processing and marketing by agricultural entrepreneurs. Job Quality The analysis highlights the fact that Job Quality outcomes tend to receive less attention than Job Creation outcomes. The contribution of interventions toward sub-outcomes of Job Quality shows that there are 30 percent fewer projects with components targeting results related to worker productivity, working conditions and benefits, and earnings/livelihoods, compared to those related to Job Creation. The Jobs Diagnostic points to the fact that most Zambians have jobs, but they are often of poor quality in low-productivity, informal agriculture. This paper’s discussion, therefore, focuses on results for worker productivity. A combination of spatial development43, irrigation infrastructure interventions, skills and training, and MSME/entrepreneurship (with two interventions each) address worker productivity. The Zambia Agribusiness and Trade Project44 is an example of a spatial development intervention to promote agricultural value chains. The project aims to increase productivity for smallholders and agribusiness SMEs by strengthening market linkages with leading buyers, and by providing support to meet commercial standards. Productivity increases are then expected to lead to firm growth and job creation among new and existing SMEs, as well as to increased income for smallholders.45 Similarly, the Irrigation Development and Support Project46 seeks to increase agricultural productivity among smallholder farmers. In addition to expanding irrigation infrastructure, the project comprises a training program to enable the establishment of water user associations and producer organizations. The project also seeks to equip smallholders with the knowledge necessary to negotiate with commercial partners as their production practices and yields improve. Job Access The WBG has supported access to income-generating opportunities through targeted interventions in lagging regions. Overlaying the geographical focus areas in the WBG portfolio on a poverty map of Zambia (see Figure 7) shows where vulnerable groups are targeted for support. While the map shows that, in absolute terms, poverty is concentrated in areas with higher population density, the WB’s poverty analysis 41 World Bank. 2017. Guarantee for Scaling Solar. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project ID P157943. 42 World Bank. 2012. Zambia Livestock Development and Animal Health Project. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project ID P122123. 43 In the JCF, projects supporting the development of value chains are captured under the spatial development category, since they promote spatial connectivity and agglomeration effects. 44 World Bank. 2017. Zambia Agribusiness and Trade Project. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project ID P156492. 45 The Jobs Group M&E team has collaborated with the project team on the design and results framework to target and track job outcomes. In addition to tracking firm performance results, an important measure of the project’s contribution to jobs will be net full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs created among beneficiary SMEs. Annex B provides more details on the project’s M&E framework. 46 World Bank. 2011. Irrigation Development and Support Project. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project ID P102459. 21 notes that poverty rates are significantly higher in rural areas.47 Rural communities along the Zambezi basin in the western and southern zones are among the poorest in the country. The Zambia Strengthening Climate Resilience Project48 focuses on these areas that are susceptible to recurrent floods, droughts, and socio-economic isolation. The project is intended to maximize the use of local labor, and its results framework tracks the person-days of labor generated through the rehabilitation and maintenance of canals. In addition, the WB’s support for environmental remediation activities focuses on known contaminated pollution hotspots in Kabwe and the Copperbelt Province in support of livelihood generation opportunities for local communities. The Zambia Mining and Environmental Remediation and Improvement Project49 seeks to reduce exposure to hazardous employment activities by providing alternative livelihood opportunities within these vulnerable communities. In municipalities such as Kabwe and Kitwe, which are some of Zambia’s poorest areas, with unemployment rates as high as 75 percent, the WB, in collaboration with IFC, among others, is looking at economic activities for those currently without access to good, safe jobs; such activities include agricultural land restoration, community-based greening activities, and waste management. While aspects of improving job quality and access are part of the project design through the specific interventions, they are reflected in results measurement to a lesser extent. Annex B provides additional information on the project’s design and M&E recommendations. Regionally, the WB is working to improve smallholder productivity in the Eastern, Western, and Southern provinces, but gaps remain in the Northern region. While the smallholders are concentrated in these selected areas, much of the agro-processing industry is concentrated in the central corridor from Copperbelt to Livingstone. Identifying opportunities to strengthen backward linkages to the supply chains of these firms would be important from a sustainable livelihoods/jobs perspective. Moreover, the WB is currently not engaged in the Northern region, one of the poorest in the country. 47 De La Fuente, Alejandro, Andreas Erwin Murr, and Ericka G. Rascon Ramirez. 2015. Mapping Subnational Poverty in Zambia. A World Bank Study. Washington, DC: World Bank. 48 World Bank. 2013. Zambia Strengthening Climate Resilience (PPCR Phase II). Washington, DC: World Bank. Project ID P127254. 49 World Bank. 2017c. Zambia Mining and Environmental Remediation and Improvement Project . Washington, DC: World Bank. Project ID P154683. 22 Figure 7 Target Areas of WBG Jobs Projects50 Source: World Bank staff analysis based on data from 2016. 3.2 WBG COMMITMENT AMOUNTS MAPPED TO JOB OUTCOMES The WBG has allocated more funding to Job Quality and Job Access outcomes than the number of interventions would indicate. Figure 8 shows the total value of interventions contributing to job outcomes, and can be compared to the number of interventions in Figure 6. Three transport infrastructure interventions, or 9 percent of all projects, address earnings/livelihoods outcomes, for instance, yet the committed investment amount is $255 million, or 17 percent of all investments. The analysis is based on the $1.5 billion invested in Zambia’s jobs-focused operations since 2006. 50 Note: Of 32 interventions in the WBG Jobs Portfolio, 13 had a component targeting vulnerable groups. 23 Figure 8 Portfolio Map of WBG Operations, by Commitment Amount51 Source: World Bank staff calculations based on data from 2016. From the perspectives of Zambia’s priority outcomes – job creation, worker productivity, and access and opportunity – these differences from analysis of the amount of WBG commitments by intervention are important:  Job creation in formal sector: The WBG has invested a relatively smaller amount in job creation, according to the number of interventions. This is predominantly due to the relatively small investment amounts allocated to spatial development interventions, which represent the most frequent intervention type.  Worker productivity: This priority has received a larger share of commitment amounts than the number of interventions suggests. The large investment amounts for irrigation/water infrastructure interventions explain this difference. The Zambia Irrigation Development Project52, for instance, amounts to $115 million, while IFC’s Zambeef Expansion Project53, which aims to expand the firm’s irrigation capacity, amounts to $70 million. 51 The presented analysis is based on projects’ commitment amounts, which may differ from actual disbursement amounts. The prioritization of outcomes and intervention types is therefore based on original project design. 52 World Bank. 2011. Irrigation Development and Support Project. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project ID P102459. 53 International Finance Corporation. 2012. Zambeef Expansion. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project number 31091. 24  Access and opportunity for jobs: A relatively larger investment amount is allocated to this outcome, according to the number of interventions. This is primarily due to large transport infrastructure interventions that benefit lagging regions. Analyzing targeted population groups shows that there is little focus on youth employment, in spite of Zambia’s demographics challenge (see Figure 9). Figure 9 Investment with an Intended Impact on Target Populations (US$, million) USD Millions 350 335 300  Projects that do have an inclusiveness dimension primarily target lagging regions 250 and women  Little focus on youth 200 185 employment despite demographics challenge 150 104 96 100 Pipeline: Education Sector Enhancement Project Active: Girls’ Education & Women’s Empowerment; Zambia Irrigation Development 50 Project 0 Lagging regions Gender Bottom 40/ Poor Youth Source: World Bank staff calculations based on data from 2016. 3.3 WBG AND DONOR OPERATIONS MAPPED TO JOB OUTCOMES The combined WBG and donor portfolios show greater coverage of Job Quality and Job Access outcomes, primarily driven by MSME, and entrepreneurship, and skills and training interventions (see Figure 10). Both DFID and ILO have a high concentration of MSME and entrepreneurship-focused activities to support the growth of worker productivity and access to jobs. These interventions seek to improve the access to markets and firm performance for SMEs (intermediate outcomes), and to promote job creation among existing enterprises. DFID’s Private Enterprise Programme, for instance, seeks to create over 26,500 jobs by 2019 by supporting SMEs with business development services and supply chain linkages. 25 Figure 10 Portfolio Map of WB and Donor Operations, by Number of Interventions Source: World Bank staff calculations based on data from 2016. Additional activities of donors’ jobs projects in Zambia include:  Promoting MSME/entrepreneurship in key sectors for jobs. DFID and SIDA provide funding for the non-governmental organization (NGO) Musika, in support of MSME and entrepreneurship for earnings/livelihoods and access and opportunity for jobs. Operating across the country in lagging, rural areas, the NGO links smallholders to commercial partners and supports them with technology adoption and investments in productivity-enhancing assets, so that they can meet the standards of corporate partners. Musika works with IFC client Zambeef, among others, to support dairy smallholders in Mongu in the Western Province. In this context, Zambeef will support the construction of a milk processing plant, train small-scale dairy farmers on good animal husbandry, and provide a market for smallholders’ products.  Targeting youth entrepreneurship in labor-intensive agricultural sectors. The ILO’s focus on decent work is tailored to the development of sustainable livelihoods for young women and men in rural areas of Zambia through the promotion of MSMEs. The Rural Youth Enterprise for Food Security initiative (branded as YAPASA) includes a focus on local production systems to unlock youth entrepreneurship as an engine of employment creation and to boost food security, for 26 example, by increasing production quantities. The initiative focuses on the soy bean and aquaculture sectors, two rural value chains with large job creation potential.  Supporting SMEs in the construction value chain. The ILO’s Zambia Green Jobs Programme is another example of an MSME and entrepreneurship intervention providing access and opportunity for jobs. The program provides business development services, access to finance, and skills development to support MSMEs in becoming more productive and competitive in order to grow and create more decent jobs. More specifically, the objective is to “create at least 5,000 decent green jobs particularly for young people and improve the quality of at least 2,000 jobs in MSMEs, which in turn will improve the incomes and livelihoods of at least 8,000 households that depend on the building construction sector.”54  Offering skills and training on agricultural best practices for smallholders to raise productivity. The AfDB Livestock Infrastructure Support Project55 combines the development of livestock infrastructure with a skills and training component to “improve smallholder livestock production, productivity, market linkages and income of livestock farmers.” Farmers are trained in improved livestock rearing technologies, farmer organization, and community mobilization. They further obtain improved access to livestock service centers, milk collection centers, livestock marketing and slaughter facilities, and rural access roads. This engagement is expected to enhance worker productivity and earnings/livelihoods, thus contributing to outcomes on job quality. The spatial focus of WBG and donor activities is complementary. Where the WBG is not active, such as in the Northern region, donors such as AfDB are present. In Zambia’s Northern region, the Luapula and Northern Provinces have some of the poorest wards in the country, are mostly rural, and have more than 50 percent of residents who are unable to satisfy basic food requirements.56 The AfDB Livestock Infrastructure Support Project57 is located in the Northern and Muchinga Provinces and, as previously explained, follows an integrated model that combines infrastructure development with skills and training interventions. 3.4 JOBS-RELEVANCE OF WBG M&E SYSTEMS Project performance is measured against the benchmark of results frameworks, but teams often lack resources on jobs measurement and are discouraged from articulating links to jobs in their project objective statements and results frameworks. Therefore, it is crucial to develop jobs-relevant M&E systems with project implementation units (PIUs) in government to achieve the full potential of jobs interventions. The WBG broadly and the Jobs Group specifically have been working to strengthen the jobs focus in project M&E systems with task teams and clients. 54 International Labour Organization (ILO). 2016. Zambia: Green Jobs in the Building Construction Sector. Geneva: ILO. www.ilo.org/global/topics/green-jobs/projects/africa/WCMS_209922/lang--en/index.htm. 55 African Development Bank. 2013. Livestock Infrastructure Support Project (LISP). Reference: P-ZM-AAE-001. 56 De La Fuente, Murr, and Rascon Ramirez 2015. 57 African Development Bank. 2013. Livestock Infrastructure Support Project (LISP) . Lusaka: African Development Bank. Reference: P-ZM-AAE-001. 27 Evidence from the portfolio suggests that jobs metrics are scarcely tracked in closed and active projects, especially within the infrastructure sector. Many projects that impact the enabling environment for jobs through energy or transport infrastructure currently do not capture jobs results in their results frameworks. A few exceptions exist, such as irrigation projects that track increases in agricultural productivity. In the future, it will be important to understand the employment rate in the targeted areas, with the number of individuals employed, inactive, or unemployed; and for those working, the share of farm versus non-farm jobs, which would help make the case that WBG activities are supporting better jobs based on higher-productivity non-farm work. Disaggregating indicators by gender is common across the portfolio, yet disaggregation by age has not been mainstreamed. The results frameworks of reviewed projects generally disaggregate certain indicators – in particular the number of beneficiaries – by participants’ gender. Monitoring the share of young beneficiaries is not as common. 28 4. RECOMMENDATIONS To support a new generation of WBG operations focused on solutions for jobs and to further strengthen the portfolio’s focus on Job Creation, Job Quality, and Job Access, the WBG should leverage IDA resources in Zambia to support specific priority interventions that strongly impact jobs, and strengthen results frameworks in projects. These recommendations on priority interventions reflect the structure of the current portfolio. The JCF does not provide a theory of change, or elaborate on how a particular activity will bring about results. The extent to which a given intervention is more or less relevant for achieving an outcome related to jobs will vary based on the country, sectoral, and project context. 4.1 PRIORITY INTERVENTIONS  Macro-fiscal stabilization: Additional focus on support to the GRZ can enable future inclusive growth and job creation, for instance, in the context of the Seventh National Development Plan. The portfolio analysis shows limited focus by the LWP in supporting targeted macroeconomic regulations to this end. Going forward, the WBG portfolio could include implementation support for necessary macro-fiscal adjustments where jobs-friendly revenue generation efforts are needed, potentially through a DPO series to support policy and institutional actions focused on jobs as a cross-cutting topic across sectors, such as energy and agriculture.  Skills and education: Human capital development is at the very basis of obtaining a productive and well-paid job. Poor learning outcomes that have been stagnating for over a decade are indicative of structural quality challenges. Several projects reviewed do have skills and training dimensions,58 but they tend to be sub-components and limited to the agricultural sector. While this is valuable and important for agricultural productivity, broad-based skills development for Zambia’s youth will be necessary to find employment in higher-productivity sectors outside of agriculture. Improving the quality of secondary education and expanding access to tertiary education and the TVET system are therefore crucial to provide access to jobs, such as in the construction and tourism sectors. The pipeline Education Sector Enhancement Project59 addresses some of these issues, such as providing access to higher secondary education and improving student learning in primary and lower secondary schools. Reinforcing these efforts and complementing them with a TVET component will be crucial to promote the human capital development required to underpin future development and job creation.  Infrastructure investments: In Zambia, infrastructure-related activities, including energy, transport, and irrigation infrastructure, comprise nearly 60 percent of the total portfolio, measured by project size. Maintaining this focus will be important to improve access to markets and productivity growth in high-potential sectors for jobs, particularly in rural and lagging regions 58 Examples are the Irrigation Development Project (P102459) and the Strengthening Climate Resilience Project (P127254). 59 World Bank. 2017. Zambia Education Sector Enhancement Project. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project ID P158570. 29 outside of the central corridor from Copperbelt to Livingstone through Lusaka. Another possible area for the WBG and donors to consider investments is the information and communication technology (ICT) sector, where this review currently finds no engagements. Smallholders could benefit from well-designed ICT solutions that facilitate the delivery of information on market prices, production techniques, and weather- or pest-related early-warning communications.60 However, current levels of human capital have to be taken into account when designing operational products, especially the high rate of illiteracy in rural areas, and particularly among women.  Spatial/value chain development: Greater investment is needed in high-potential value chains for jobs, including agribusiness and construction, to support smallholder and SME productivity growth. While the portfolio shows a concentration in the number of spatial development interventions, the investment amounts are relatively low as they represent 6 percent of the total portfolio. This is particularly low since value chain development interventions often support enhancements to worker productivity, one of Zambia’s priority job outcomes. Support specifically targeting sectoral investments for jobs could include working with IFC investees to develop supply chains where more Zambian smallholders and SMEs benefit from market access and achieve productivity increases. Moreover, interventions that support secondary or small towns by promoting linkages of value chains will increase labor mobility, particularly in lagging areas. As urban centers develop that are closer to rural populations and more affordable than capital cities, financial and opportunity costs of labor mobility decrease. This encourages more individuals to consider moving for a job, which contributes to a more productive allocation of labor.  Job opportunities for the most vulnerable: The analysis revealed a relatively low level of investment designed with vulnerable populations as target beneficiary groups. Only three interventions, with a little over $100 million, targeted youth, despite the well-noted demographic challenges in Zambia, especially with regard to youth employment. Similarly, improved geographical targeting is needed to consider areas of high poverty, such as the Northern Province, where the WBG is not currently engaged. High-potential opportunities include promoting the development of the building construction sector for youth employment, promoting women’s jobs in small animal husbandry, and maintaining the portfolio’s focus on rural entrepreneurship for women and youth in lagging regions. A focus on simple project design and client capacity development is encouraged in order to ensure effective, timely disbursement. The review of closed projects in the WBG portfolio found that client capacity issues were a recurring difficulty.61 Moreover, data from the Country Management Unit (CMU) 60 World Bank.2015a. Supporting Women’s Agro-enterprises in Africa with ICT: A Feasibility Study in Zambia and Kenya . A World Bank Study. Washington, DC: World Bank. 61 Five closed projects since 2006 in the WBG portfolio had positive ratings (one with a Satisfactory rating and four with a Moderately Satisfactory rating), but do not necessarily indicate positive results related to jobs. For instance, the Road Rehabilitation and Maintenance Project “provided the rural communities with better access to (agriculture) markets, incom e- generating opportunities, and essential social services.” However, this project showed shortcomings in terms of project preparation and readiness for implementation. On the government’s side, there were issues of limited capacity due to delays in appointing the board of directors and high staff turnover at road agencies. The Increased Access to Electricity Services Project faced similar constraints of capacity shortcomings in the Rural Electrification Agency, one of the implementing agencies. The 30 indicate that a significant share of the active portfolio is at risk across a range of dimensions, such as effectiveness delays, slow disbursement, and M&E.62 These findings may indicate that client capacity development, in combination with simple project design, also requires investment to support job outcomes. 4.2 JOBS-FOCUSED M&E SYSTEMS Designing jobs-focused operations targeting results on Job Creation, Job Quality, and Job Access will require greater focus on sound M&E systems that underpin their jobs impact. The WBG Jobs Group is working with WB and IFC teams on mainstreaming the jobs agenda in lending and investment projects, which will require a jobs lens to designing project M&E. The WBG Jobs Group is developing simple, jobs- focused indicators as part of project monitoring and a Jobs M&E Toolkit.63 WB and IFC project teams are also undertaking complementary jobs-focused impact evaluations.64 In order to achieve the full potential of jobs-relevant interventions, it is recommended to:  Embed jobs-related indicators in projects’ results frameworks. This will measure effects on jobs, based on a sound results chain linked to jobs. Articulating a clear results chain, where the job outcomes expected of a given intervention are based on research and evidence, is an important precondition to selecting indicators for tracking job outcomes. Table 1 provides a range of sample indicators. Table 1 Example of Jobs Indicators Per Job Outcome Job Creation –  Number of employed project beneficiaries Creating formal jobs  Number of full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs in beneficiary firms  Number of newly created firms with at least one paid employees  Number of self-employed project beneficiaries Job Quality –  Average output per worker among beneficiary firms Improving informal jobs  Job satisfaction rate among project beneficiaries  Average earnings of project beneficiaries per year Job Access –  Beneficiaries disaggregated by gender, age group (youth) or region Connecting vulnerable  Labor force participation rate among project beneficiaries groups to jobs  Average length of time for beneficiary firms to fill a vacancy, by type of position Source: World Bank. 2017b. forthcoming. Monitoring & Evaluation for Jobs Operations: An Introduction to the Jobs M&E Toolkit. Implementation Completion and Results (ICR) Report concluded that having two implementing agencies was a challenge to achieving development objectives. 62 Data from the Zambia CMU (as of December 31, 2016) suggest that four out of 11 projects are classified as part of the portfolio at risk. 63 World Bank. 2017b. forthcoming. Monitoring & Evaluation for Jobs Operations: An Introduction to the Jobs M&E Toolkit 64 Impact evaluations to capture higher-level job outcomes can include experimental and quasi-experimental designs, including tracer surveys, value chain surveys, and other techniques suited for a given project or program context. In the case of IFC, there are also examples of expanded appraisals among IFC investees, which seek to collect data on the status of employment in the firm at baseline stage. 31 Annex B provides an in-depth look of how team task leaders (TTLs) can take a jobs perspective in the project design and M&E plans through the use of job outcomes and indicators.  Promote the disaggregation of indicators by age. Tracking job outcomes specifically for youth will be necessary to strengthen the portfolio’s inclusiveness dimension and to address Zambia’s demographics challenge. Where available, age-disaggregated data can be obtained from existing data sources such as Labor Force Surveys or project records, or should be included in the data collection instruments used to underpin project monitoring. While it is acknowledged that greater specificity in data collection entails additional time and costs, it might be justified to track project outcomes for this particularly important population group.  Build capacity on M&E among client counterparts and implementing partners. Trainings to strengthen data collection capacity and to promote the selective use of impact evaluations will strengthen the evidence on the effectiveness of jobs interventions. Moreover, it is recommended to develop M&E information-sharing protocols within agencies, such as the Jobs Office in Cabinet Office, Ministry of Labour and Social Security, Ministry of National Development and Planning, and others, and thus help reduce the data collection burden for agencies. 32 ANNEX A: METHODOLOGY This annex outlines the methodology the WBG Jobs Group used to review and map WBG projects65 to the JCF, and how each version of the portfolio maps can be interpreted. The Jobs Group developed the methodology for this portfolio review, based on A Jobs Conceptual Framework: Assessing World Bank Group Interventions’ Links to Jobs (World Bank. 2017a, forthcoming. A Jobs Conceptual Framework: Assessing World Bank Group Interventions’ Links to Jobs. A World Bank Study. Washington, DC: World Bank.). INTRODUCTION TO THE JCF The JCF (see Table A1) articulates the link between an array of WBG interventions and job outcomes66. One of the many purposes that the JCF serves is to assess the extent to which a given portfolio of interventions aims at achieving specific job outcomes, and to identify gaps in the portfolio, areas where further investments are needed, or operations that would need to be better coordinated. Key Outcomes: What are the jobs results we seek? The JCF reflects the main outcomes for jobs, organized under headings of Job Creation, Job Quality, and Job Access (see Figure A1). The JCF represents a static snapshot of possible interventions and related results, indicating areas with potential to be explored in more detail, rather than explaining how certain interventions lead to specific results. Figure A1 Key Jobs-Related Outcomes Through a More, Better, and Inclusive Perspective Source: World Bank. 2017b. forthcoming. Monitoring & Evaluation for Jobs Operations: An Introduction to the Jobs M&E Toolkit. 65 The methodology can also be applied externally to donor portfolios, though the project documentation on which the analysis is based may vary. 66 Refer to Annex C and Annex D for full definitions of jobs interventions and job outcomes outlined in the JCF. 33 Table A1 Jobs Conceptual Framework Jobs Conceptual Framework jobs challenges Outcomes→ Intermediate Outcomes Jobs Creation Job Quality Job Access Macro- economic Response to Access to / Firm Working Working of Access and Human Job creation New Entrepreneurs/ Worker Earnings/ Labor force Interventions ↓ working of performance Capital (by employers) enterprises self-employed productivity conditions livelihoods participation labor Opportunity product markets / investment and benefits market for Jobs Public administration and governance conditions Taxation / Fiscal Policy Trade & Investment Policy Labor Policies Business regulations Meso-level: Business Infrastructure: Environment - transport - ICT - energy - irrigation/water Spatial development Productive assets: - land - finance/ financial system Micro-level: Individuals/ Firms MSME/ Entrepreneurship Labor programs: - public employment services - wage subsidies - public works - livelihoods /CDD Skills and training Intermediate Outcomes. The JCF includes select intermediate outcomes that affect both labor supply and labor demand. Interventions that aim at better working of product markets, improved investments, and better firm performance are the main drivers of labor demand, while interventions aimed at fostering human capital and employability will enhance labor supply. These intermediate outcomes in turn contribute to final outcomes of Job Creation, Job Quality, and Job Access. The list is not exhaustive. Job Creation outcomes relate to job creation for project beneficiaries, either directly or indirectly. Jobs can be created directly, whether short- or long-term, for example, through public works or livelihoods. More broadly, private sector firms create jobs, either by entry of new businesses or by growth and expansion of existing firms, resulting in the hiring of more staff. In addition to wage employment, an increase in entrepreneurship and self-employment create more jobs. Job Quality outcomes encompass dimensions of job quality, including earnings, working conditions, and benefits. Job Quality also includes worker productivity; the ability to perform better in the labor market is an essential driver for earnings and firm productivity. Job Access outcomes concern labor force participation, the functioning of labor markets, and access to and opportunity for jobs, in particular for traditionally disadvantaged groups in the labor market – women, youth, and the bottom 40 percent, or for spatially disadvantaged population such as those in lagging regions and in fragile and conflicted settings. Key Interventions: What can we do to promote jobs? In response to identified jobs challenges, the framework describes broad intervention categories that affect job outcomes. An intervention can either be a project, or a “component,” since a given project may contain several types of support (e.g., “skills and training” and “access to finance”). An intervention can also influence several outcomes; for example, public works can both enhance labor force participation and increase earnings. While the list of interventions is not exhaustive, it covers a wide range of activities that are traditionally most likely to affect the jobs agenda. The interventions can be interlinked, mutually dependent, and reinforcing. More interventions improving macroeconomic conditions, such as public administration and governance; taxation/fiscal policy; and trade and investment policy, generally at the national level, may indirectly support the business environment and stimulate jobs, but it may be difficult to trace the direct effect of job creation. Interventions affecting the “business environment” can be economy-wide or sector- specific, industry-specific or geographic, but where targeted firms’ jobs results can be assessed. For interventions at the micro-level, i.e., working directly with beneficiary firms or individuals, project monitoring can measure attributable effects. KEY STEPS OF PORTFOLIO REVIEW The purpose of conducting a portfolio review using the JCF is to look at WBG and donor activities in a given country through a jobs lens. The JCF serves as a structure to categorize the activities of individual projects according to intervention type, capture the project’s expected outcomes, and visualize the aggregate distribution of activities according to the number of interventions and level of spending across jobs interventions and outcome types. 35 The broad steps of the review are: 1. Defining the scope of the jobs-relevant portfolio under review. 2. Obtaining project documents that contain project information. 3. Identifying jobs-related interventions and outcomes based on project information. 4. Populating the JCF and creating portfolio maps. 5. Analyzing the jobs focus of the portfolio against the priorities identified in the Zambia Jobs Diagnostic. Step 1. Defining the scope of the jobs-relevant portfolio under review The reviewed portfolio is selected from the full universe of WBG Zambia portfolio over FY 2006-16 , a period that covers approximately three phases of World Bank country frameworks in Zambia67, which ensures the reviewed portfolio’s relevance to the status quo of the jobs agenda in the country. Out of the full universe, jobs-relevant projects are selected for review. Jobs-relevant projects include projects tagged using the Jobs Flag in WBG systems, defined as projects having an explicitly stated and substantive link to the creating more, better, and/or inclusive jobs. In addition, the review covers projects that are not Jobs- Flagged in the system but are nevertheless identified as jobs-relevant, based on the Jobs Group’s in-depth review of the design, description, and results frameworks of the projects. The relevance of the selected projects is further validated with WB and IFC country teams. The scope of this review covers 20 WB Lending and 12 IFC Investment projects from FY 2006-16, as well as 16 donor projects.68 Given the analytical nature of the WB Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) work and the purpose of the review to strengthen the jobs focus of the operational portfolio, this review does not include WB ASA work. For the purpose of consistency across WB and IFC advisory engagements, IFC advisory projects were also excluded, while recognizing that many are client-facing and may be jobs- relevant. The LWP portfolio was identified by electronic search for publicly available project information using the Jobs Flag criteria, and validated by respective LWP institutions in Zambia. Step 2. Obtaining project documents that contain project information. Project documents are retrieved from WBG databases including Image Bank (for World Bank) and iDesk (for IFC investment projects). More specifically, a review of varying sources of project information to support the analytical work includes:  For active, closed, and pipeline World Bank projects, Project Appraisal Documents (PADs) serve as the primary source of information that underlies the analysis.  For pipeline projects69 where PADs are not yet available, Project Concept Note (PCNs) serve as primary source of information that underlies the analysis.  For projects that have gone through restructuring, the Restructuring Papers are reviewed to ensure that the analysis captured the most up-to-date design and results framework of a project.  The review refers to Implementation and Completion Reports (ICRs) to analyze the effectiveness and performance of closed projects where ICRs are available. 67 Country Partnership Strategy FY13-FY16; Country Assistance Strategy FY08-FY12; Country Assistance Strategy FY04-FY07 68 For a full list of projects reviewed, refer to Annex E. 69 Zambia Integrated Forest Landscape project; ZM-Improved Rural Connectivity Project 36  For IFC investments, Board Papers serve as the primary source of information, while concept, approval, and commitment reports complement. Step 3. Identifying jobs-related interventions and outcomes based on project information. In order to categorize jobs intervention types and job outcomes, the Jobs Group reviewed the Project Development Objective (PDO), project description (components), as well as the results frameworks in the project documentation. The group then mapped projects based on standard definitions of job intervention types (see Annex C) and job outcomes (see Annex D). One project can be mapped to multiple intervention types if the project is composed of an array of diverse activities. Furthermore, a project could be mapped to more than one intervention type if a single activity in a project fits into the criteria of multiple intervention types, such as microfinance activities for entrepreneurs and SMEs which fit into the Productive Assets–Finance/Financial Structures and MSME/Entrepreneurship category by nature. Often, one intervention aims to affect multiple job outcomes along the intermediate, Job Creation, Job Quality, and Job Access matrix. Step 4. Populating the JCF and creating portfolio maps. Once the Jobs Group identified the jobs intervention types and job outcomes of each project in the portfolio, the data were populated into the JCF Excel tool which generates visualization of the portfolio distributed across the JCF, referred to as portfolio maps. Each cell of the portfolio maps represents the intensity of projects – that is, a greater number of interventions – that are mapped to a certain type of jobs intervention with the aim of achieving a jobs outcome. Portfolio distribution is showcased through two versions of portfolio maps: by number of interventions (see Figure 6 of the main text) and project financial commitment (see Figure 8), respectively. The latter portfolio map (i.e., by project financial commitment) accounted for the different commitment size of each project. Instead of counting the number of interventions, a cell in the commitment portfolio map represents the total commitment (in US dollars) mapped to a certain intervention and outcome. Caveats: Some projects are captured more than once in the portfolio map, because one project can be mapped to multiple intervention types and to multiple outcomes. Table A2 illustrates the case of counting interventions more than once, using the example of transport infrastructure. The portfolio reviewed includes a total of four transport infrastructure interventions, representing a commitment amount of $330 million. Three of the four projects address the outcome Access to/Working of Product Markets, representing $310 million; two projects representing $110 million address Job Creation by Employers; three projects representing $255 million address Earnings/Livelihoods; and two projects representing $220 million address Access to and Opportunity for Jobs. Since the interventions affect and count toward different outcomes, the sum of investments addressing a specific outcome; i.e., $310 million, $110 million, and $220 million exceed the total investment amount of $310 million. It is not possible to distribute specific amounts to different outcomes, as an intervention contributes to multiple outcomes simultaneously. The concentration of the lending amounts invested is therefore reflected in the darker shades of blue accordingly, such as Access to/Working of Product Markets and Earnings/Livelihoods. 37 Table A2 Multiple Job Outcomes Affected by WBG Projects, Exemplified by Transport Infrastructure Interventions Job Creation Job Quality Job Access Outcomes→ Intermediate Outcomes (More Jobs) (Better Jobs) (Inclusive Jobs) Acces s to / Fi rm Worki ng Acces s a nd worki ng of Huma n Job crea ti on (by New Entrepreneurs / Worker Ea rni ngs / La bor force Worki ng of Interventions ↓ performa nce/ condi ti ons Opportuni ty product Ca pi ta l empl oyers ) enterpri s es s el f-empl oyed producti vi ty l i vel i hoods pa rti ci pa ti on l a bor ma rket i nves tment a nd benefi ts for Jobs ma rkets Infra s tructure: - tra ns port Step 5. Analyzing the jobs focus of the portfolio against the priorities identified in the Zambia Jobs Diagnostic. The visual map of the status of the WBG Jobs Portfolio in Zambia can be informative in itself. To serve as a tool to identify areas that require greater attention and investment to support the jobs agenda, the portfolio map was compared to the key priority outcomes identified in the Zambia Jobs Diagnostic. The priorities identified in Zambia are centered on promoting job creation in the formal sector, improving worker productivity, and enhancing access to jobs for women, youth, and the bottom 40 percent. Through comparison with country jobs priorities, the review identified the challenges and opportunities associated with the reviewed portfolio and further consolidated them into recommendations, as is discussed in the main text of the report. 38 ANNEX B: EXAMPLES OF JOBS-FOCUSED M&E IN WB PROJECTS These three projects in the WB’s Zambia Jobs Portfolio are illustrative of opportunities to embed a jobs lens in the design and M&E plans to support development outcomes on jobs. Zambia Improved Rural Connectivity Project70  Jobs Rationale: The Jobs Group team has found that most transport engagements focus on direct jobs according to local labor involved in construction and maintenance, and then those related to services and lower costs for firms (the second-order growth effects). The link between infrastructure investments and job creation has been less clear in the literature. However, there is some empirical evidence71 supporting the line of sight to poverty reduction through access to markets, enhanced productivity, and the flow of services and human capital. This context provides a justification for strengthening the jobs focus of infrastructure work in Zambia.  Project Design: The Improved Rural Connectivity Project is an example of support aimed at improving the accessibility of communities in rural, lagging regions to jobs through more efficient road infrastructure. The primary component will be upgrading, rehabilitation, and maintenance of priority feeder road infrastructure in six provinces. The immediate beneficiaries are road users who will have reduced travel times and costs. In addition, rural farmers will have improved access to inputs and markets. Employment in road construction activities and related rural development will also have potential to create new income-generation opportunities among rural communities.  Implications for M&E: Targeting accessibility and agricultural productivity is part of the project’s design related to Job Quality and Job Access, as in Table B1. Table B1 Explicitly Targeted and Suggested Job Outcomes for Zambia Improved Rural Connectivity Project 70World Bank. 2017. Zambia Improved Rural Connectivity Project. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project ID P15933. 71(1) Calderon, Cesar and Luis Serven. 2004. The effect of infrastructure development on growth and income distribution. Central Bank of Chile. Working Paper 270; Khandker et al (2009) find that rural road investments reduce poverty, including through higher agricultural production, higher wages, and lower input costs, and higher output prices (Khandker, S.R., Z. Bakht and G.B. Koolwal (2009) The poverty impact of rural roads: evidence from Bangladesh. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 57(4), 685- 722); (2) Infrastructure development in Sub-Saharan Africa explains 1/2 of recent growth acceleration (Calderon, Cesar and Luis Serven. 2010. Infrastructure in Latin America. World Bank. Policy Research Working Paper 5317); (3) An increase in infrastructure investment equivalent to 1 percent of GDP would translate into an additional 3.4 million direct and indirect jobs in India, 1.5 million in the United States, 1.3 million in Brazil, and 700,000 in Indonesia. (McKinsey Global Institute, January 2013. Infrastructure productivity: How to save $1 trillion a year.) 39 From a jobs perspective, however, further attention is needed explicitly on measures of productivity gains related to improved connectivity to markets, particularly among rural farmers who comprise the majority of working Zambians. From a more jobs view specifically, it is important to understand the employment rate in the targeted areas prior to and after the interventions, according to the number of employed, inactive, or unemployed – and for those working, the share of farm vs. non-farm jobs.72 In addition, a beneficiary survey would shed light on the extent to which women, young people, and the bottom 40 percent are positively affected, and track earnings/income growth based on higher sales and output per worker. Zambia Agribusiness and Trade Project73  Jobs Rationale: The need for Zambia’s diversification program is reiterated in government policies and strategies related to jobs, at a time when the country needs to ramp up investments in key economic sectors, such as agriculture and services. Agribusiness and trade development can support better jobs for more Zambians, mostly women, and are key to increasing inclusive growth. Agro-based products can help diversify exports away from copper, and integrating smallholders into the supply chains of leading firms in these areas could – in principle - increase rural incomes as productivity increases.  Project Design: The development objective is to contribute to increased market linkages and firm growth in agribusiness. Project interventions will have particular emphasis on improving the ability of emerging farmers and agribusiness SMEs to sustainably and commercially link into larger markets by structuring support around offtake opportunities that the private sector itself identifies as high potential. Targeted beneficiaries include small-scale, emerging farmers that could be integrated into value chains through enhanced productivity and SMEs that require supplier development support for linkages into supply chains of established end-markets and large buyers.  Implications for M&E: The project seeks to affect intermediate outcomes related to jobs through enhanced farmer and SME performance in the agribusiness sector, which in turn supports entrepreneurship/self-employment, productivity, and earnings/livelihoods. Table B2 illustrates the jobs results expected based on project design. Table B2 Explicitly Targeted and Suggested Job Outcomes for Agribusiness and Trade Project 72 While attribution of any changes to the roads project would not be possible, the change over time in these areas would be important to understand the status of jobs over time. 73 World Bank. 2017. Zambia Agribusiness and Trade Project. Washington, DC: World Bank. Project ID P156492. 40 The theory of change for this type of engagement, namely public-private partnerships for agribusiness entrepreneurship, assumes that market links lead to higher value addition, growth, and earnings for(spatially proximate farmer groups. Those results should presumably have spillovers into the rural non-farm economy where individual producer groups benefit. Spatially proximate local economic development may also occur from livelihoods growth. An impact evaluation is planned to measure the expected longer term results. In particular, it will be important to understand how much vulnerable groups such as women, youth, and the bottom 40 percent benefit, and the extent of job impacts. Zambia Mining and Environmental Remediation and Improvement Project74  Jobs Rationale: An important aspect of Zambia’s jobs challenge is support to vulnerable groups in rural and lagging regions. The vulnerability of populations affected by polluted mining areas cannot be overlooked, given the high rates of poverty incidence (an estimated 80 percent in the Central Province) and lack of access to good jobs (an estimated 75 percent unemployment rate). Residents often live in houses constructed of polluted materials, have poor health outcomes, and have little alternatives to income generation other than collecting scrap metals in contaminated sites.  Project Design: Within this context, the forthcoming WB engagement in mining and environmental remediation seeks to “reduce environmental health risks including lead exposure to the local population in critically polluted mining areas in Kabwe, Kitwe, Mufulira and Chingola municipalities.” The project will support localized interventions, in the selected municipalities to undertake income-generation opportunities that will enhance community involvement in addressing environmental health risks, with specific attention to women and other vulnerable people in the community. The project does not attempt to address structural unemployment or lack of labor demand.  Implications for M&E: Supporting opportunities for community-based enterprise development is important to promote income-generation activities outside of the hazardous areas. Table B3 illustrates the intended results on earnings/livelihoods and access to and opportunities for jobs. Table B3 Explicitly Targeted and Suggested Job Outcomes for Zambia Mining and Environmental Remediation and Improvement Project Understanding the improved working conditions and labor force participation rate changes in the targeted areas over time would support the broader jobs-related story of the project. Supporting labor redeployment and employment services aimed at these local populations may be needed as complementary project activities. Examples of the kinds of support that may be needed include 74 World Bank. 2017c. 41 on- and off-the-job education and training; temporary employment programs (public works) to assist local communities with refurbishment of public infrastructure, support to schools, health clinics, etc.; and business development services. In addition, baseline data collection is planned as a priority in project M&E activities, which would ideally require tracking employment rates/labor force participation in the targeted areas, earnings/income growth among beneficiaries, and people with access to improved livelihood sources; and disaggregating key jobs-related measures by gender and age. 42 ANNEX C: DEFINITIONS OF JOB INTERVENTIONS Table C1 Definitions of Job Interventions Jobs Intervention Definition Macroeconomic – Public Interventions that aim to improve public sector management with a jobs lens (i.e., taking into account the development payoffs from jobs), Administration and including public administration reform and civil service reform (payment and terms and conditions); inclusive growth projects that support Governance critical reforms; institutional reform (federal level); privatization of state-owned enterprises; statistical strengthening; public procurement reform; public sector transparency, etc. Government support addressing (a) provision of public goods; (b) transactional services (with private sector / citizens); and (c) regulation of the private sector and the government itself. Keywords: Informal Economy; Long-Term Unemployment; Partial Unemployment; Under Employment; Full Employment Macroeconomic – Taxation/ Taxation (of property, trade, investment, income), investment subsidies, payroll taxes, as well as taxation in the form of tariffs Fiscal Policy (customs/trade). Interventions include general governance reforms such as fiscal deficit reduction, public financial management, overall tax reforms, disinvestment, etc. and tax wedges (ratio between the amount of taxes paid by an average single worker and the corresponding total labor cost for the employer) and incentives for employment. (Note: While monetary policy and rate of exchange/ interest are important for private sector growth, they are normally not addressed through WBG jobs interventions and therefore are not included.) Macroeconomic – Trade/ Trade interventions include macroeconomic reforms in support of private sector development such as removing overall regulatory barriers, Investment Policy improving competition policies, trade liberalization, trade integration, improving trade competitiveness, developing and strengthening financial markets, etc. Keywords: Industrial Policies; Industrial Relations; Trade and Employment (Note: See “Business Regulations” for specific policies related to investment climate for firms.) Labor Policies Part of the regulatory environment, interventions aimed at improving the functioning of labor markets and/or labor institutions; from an employer and employee perspective, including effectiveness of the labor policy and reform and/or labor regulations; activation policies; building statistical capacity (related to labor statistics) or labor market information systems; labor market assessments. Includes employment protection legislation (EPL) dealing with hiring or termination, including unemployment benefits and severance pay and related procedures, strengthening work place standards, worker protection and rights, and unionization. Dissemination of workplace standards and strengthening labor inspection. Business Regulations Part of the regulatory environment, interventions aimed at supporting and simplifying transactional services between government and private sector; business regulation for private sector; addressing competitiveness constraints (that are horizontal in nature, including regulations and barriers to trade, investment, innovation, technology, and entrepreneurship policies), certification and standards systems. Interventions to stimulate investment, firm entry, and firm growth, such as business registration/E-services; export development; taxation sector reforms; customs; safety regulations; anti-trust laws; contract law, laws on access to property/property rights, patent, business dispute regulations and litigation, etc. 43 Infrastructure – Transport/ Operations targeting access to transportation services, including urban transport and mobility; rural roads and feeder roads; developing Logistics corridors; rail and freight; establishing ports and airports; community projects for infrastructure maintenance; village infrastructure to provide greater access to markets and increase mobility, local, national or regional connectivity. Infrastructure – ICT Operations targeting investments in information and communication technology (ICT), such as broadband access, backbone development and internet services; mobile technology or services; increase in density of mobile network penetration. (Note: Not addressing possible effects on ICT and computerization on jobs.) Infrastructure – Energy/ Operations aimed at improving energy access or mining (electric power generation and distribution, integrated utilities; clear energy; oil, gas, Mining and mining, including operations that aim at creating a number of jobs directly in the power/mining sector; provide an infrastructure for growth of other sectors (such as agriculture, manufacturing, and retail downstream); and/or operations that aim to enhance productivity in various service sectors such as health, education and ICT (information and communication technology), to support firm growth and productivity. Infrastructure – Irrigation/ Operations providing increased access to irrigation systems aimed at improved agricultural production and farm income, rural investment and Water water services; as well as water supply for manufacturing and industry. Productive Assets – Land Interventions that aim to increase or secure access to land or land rights as a productive resource, such as improving use of idle land for firm development; improved land registration laws; and/or reduce conflict related to land. May be rural land related to agriculture, self- employment and value chains; or urban or rural land related to manufacturing, industrial development or commerce. May also be targeted to vulnerable groups. Productive Assets – Finance/ Interventions aimed at increasing access to finance and related support for firms, individuals, communities, or financial institutions such as Financial Structure micro-credit programs /microfinance, institutional finance, infrastructure finance, secured transactions, financial training, warehouse financing, etc. May also include financial services (credit and leasing, savings insurance) or reform of the financial sector/ banking reforms. Often targeted to micro-enterprises, SMEs, entrepreneurs and/or financial inclusion projects targeting vulnerable groups (e.g., women, youth, and bottom 40% of population). MSME/ Entrepreneurship Interventions aimed at fostering firm level entrepreneurship; self-employment and small-scale entrepreneurship; business incubation services; SME upgrading; promoting competitiveness through capacity building and business training; business-development services; promotion of private sector development. May include support for innovation, R&D, etc.; microenterprise support including financial literacy and training; networking; enterprise development; support to household enterprises; support for improved linkages to markets, entry into farming or exit into the broader rural economy; small-scale industrial solutions such as processing and storage infrastructure. Direct Investment/ Risk Interventions offering insurance and guarantees to cover different types of non-commercial risks such as currency inconvertibility, and Insurance transfer restriction; government expropriation; war, terrorism, and civil disturbances; breaches of contract; and the non-honoring of sovereign financial obligations with the objective of promoting foreign direct investment in difficult operating environments. The type of investments typically covered are equity, loans, shareholder loans, and shareholder loan guarantees, often provided by Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), IFC. Often includes direct support to large firms, fostering partnerships to better serve emerging market private sector clients, and providing innovative solutions to countries that need them the most. Spatial Development Interventions with specific aim to strengthen spatial connectivity and agglomeration effects for productivity and growth, as well as the creation, improvement and inclusiveness of jobs. Includes operations for: (i) urban development; (ii) special economic zones (SEZ)s; i.e., demarcated geographic areas within a country’s boundaries where the rules of business are different from those that prevail i n the national territory); (iii) programs targeting the bottom 40% of the population and slum dwellers in megacities; (iv) growth poles and corridors; (v) secondary cities (urban jurisdictions performing vital governance, logistical and production functions at a sub-national level within a system of 44 cities in a country); and (vi) value chains. May also include tourism development; regional integration; competitive cities projects and/or urban upgrade projects; agricultural development and agro-industry. Keywords: Urban Job Creation; Urbanization (Note: Will often also relate to other types of interventions, such as infrastructure, business regulations, entrepreneurship Labor Programs – Public Interventions providing employment assistance, or supporting or establishing entities providing services to match job seekers with job Employment Services opportunities or to plan and execute labor market policies, including providing information about the labor market; assisting with job search and providing placement services or counseling; administering unemployment insurance benefits; administering a variety of labor programs. Keywords: Employment Agencies; National Employment Service, Public Employment Services; Private Employment Agencies market programs. Services can be provided by government and/or by private employment agencies. Labor Programs – Wage Interventions supporting or providing direct transfers to employers or reductions in their taxes or social contributions to encourage them to Subsidies hire new workers or to keep employees who might otherwise be laid off. Often targeted to particular groups, such as youth. Includes cash transfers; jobs, cash-for-work, cash and in-kind transfers; conditional or unconditional cash transfers; in-kind social transfer, enhancing matching in the labor market; matching grants; and voucher programs. (WDR 2013) Keywords: Cash Transfer; Income Support; Income Transfers Labor Programs – Public Works Interventions that support employment programs (short-term) or offer short-term employment for wages or food. Includes projects which create/support a large number of jobs or are labor intensive. Often linked to infrastructure or community development; and targeted to vulnerable groups, e.g., youth, informal sector, reintegration. Labor Programs – Livelihood/ Interventions promoting sustainable livelihoods, rural livelihoods, viable alternative livelihoods; economic diversification; developing CDD livelihood incentives (may be related to natural resources); linking enterprises and livelihoods alternatives. Includes operations for community employment (urban, rural); community-driven development (CDD); rural livelihoods; fisheries and watershed management; or build linkages to agricultural supply chains. Includes activities of producer organizations such as pricing policy, improvement of agricultural production practices, and local processing and marketing of produce; and/or promoting cooperatives to better link to buyers, access and share market knowledge, and strengthen producers’ bargaining. Skills and Training Interventions aimed at enhancing capabilities of target beneficiaries to increase employability and employment opportunities, such as vocational training, on the job training and support for the school to work transition. Includes skills development or upgrading for youth, workforce enhancement, subject specific training (e.g., machine operation, financial literacy, accounting) etc. Skills development may be sector-specific (to train, hire, and retain health care workers; training farmers to improve farm productivity, etc.); and include better access to and use of specific knowledge / technologies. Keywords: Employability; Job Skills/ Job Training; Low-Skilled; Quality Training; Skills Development/ Skills Upgrading; Vocational Skill/ Vocational Training Source: World Bank Group Jobs Group. 45 ANNEX D: DEFINITIONS OF JOB OUTCOMES Table D1 Definitions of Job Outcomes Jobs Outcome Definition Intermediate – Access/ Outcomes measuring the creation or improvement in access to markets for goods and services (local, domestic, international) by firms, small Working of product market producers, MSMEs and self-employed. Access can be physical (transportation or logistics for access to markets etc.); virtual (ICT services connecting to markets); or related to trade openness and legal framework (reflecting government's economic policies regarding import substitution and free competition; conditions; tariff and non-tariff measures). Does not refer to land market or labor market. Generally relates to potentially increasing labor demand. Intermediate – Firm Outcomes measuring firm performance (e.g., sales, profits); productivity (i.e., the amount of output generated with a given amount of inputs); performance/ Investment and competitiveness, from macro and micro economic interventions (from business environment to access to productive services and infrastructure assets.). Also covers increased investment by companies. Generally relates to potentially increasing labor demand, and higher productivity of jobs. Intermediate – Human Capital Outcomes measuring the results of capacity building, skills development and training to increase employability. May include cognitive skills, social skills and technical skills. Generally relates to potentially enhancing labor supply. Job Creation – Jobs creation by Outcomes relating to creation of more direct, indirect, and/or inclusive jobs* for project target beneficiaries, whether short or long term. employers Keywords: Employment Opportunities; Job Creation; More Jobs; Unemployment; Job Loss *Note: Jobs = “activities that generate income, monetary or in kind, without violating human rights” (WDR 2013) Job Creation – New Enterprises Outcomes measuring the creation of new firms, resulting in jobs, often from interventions making it easier for business to register or access finance such as decrease in time taken to register a business, simpler tax regulations, automating business processes etc. Job Creation – Entrepreneurs/ Outcomes related to increases in entrepreneurs* and self-employed and their businesses, some of which may also recruit workers. Self-employed Keywords: Non-Farm Enterprises; Non-Labor Income; Self Employed/ Employment *Note: Entrepreneurship: It is the combination of innovative capacity to put new ideas into effect with managerial capacity to increase a firm’s efficiency within the limits of known technology. (WDR 2013) Job Quality – Worker Outcomes related to labor productivity by improving the ability of beneficiaries to perform better in labor market and improving their Productivity productivity levels, often through capacity building. Keywords: Better Jobs; Improve Employability; Improved Labor Outcome; Informal(ity); Productivity/ Labor Productivity; Non-Regular Workers Job Quality – Working Outcomes addressing work place concerns of two dimensions: physical working conditions (health and safety at work, basic / core labor conditions and benefits standards), and social insurance/ protection (e.g., better workplace laws, wages, social pension, better working hours unemployment insurance, collective bargaining, etc.) Keywords: Hiring And Firing; Improving Working Conditions; Low-Wage; Minimum Wage; Negotiated Wage Rates; Labor Benefits; Overtime Pay; Pension Systems; Protect Workers; Rights At Work; Social Protection/ Social Security; Safety Nets; Collective Bargaining 46 Job Quality – Earnings/ Outcomes related to improved earnings, income or savings, often through support to self-employment; income support opportunities and livelihoods income diversification, community driven development (CDD) projects, temporary jobs, etc. Also related to results of ALMPs. Keywords: Good Jobs; Growing Employment; Labor Income; Wage; Real Wages; Fixed-Term Contracts Job Access – Labor Force Outcomes measuring the extent to which the population is economically active, either employed or are actively looking for work. Generally Participation relates to potentially enhancing labor supply. Keywords: Labor Demand; Labor Supply Job Access – Working of Labor Outcomes measuring the functioning of the labor market in balancing suppliers of labor services (workers), the demands of labor services Market (employers), taking account of wages, employment, and income, often through labor market policies to address market distortions. Also linked to worker mobility, facilitating reallocation of labor to efficient uses, within countries and across borders, for example by reduced transportation costs. Generally relates to potentially better matching of labor supply and demand. Job Access – Access to and Outcomes measuring access to employment opportunity, for those lacking opportunity such as people working fewer than 20 hours a week, Opportunity for Jobs the unemployed, and those who want to work, and traditionally disadvantaged groups in the labor market (women, youth, bottom 40 percent, people with disabilities, ethnicity, elderly, LBGT etc.) and regionally disadvantaged groups (people in fragile and conflicted situations and in lagging regions). Source: World Bank Group Jobs Group. 47 ANNEX E: LIST OF REVIEWED PROJECTS Table E1 Active WBG Portfolio, FY 2006-16, Flagged for Jobs75 Project Name Project ID WB/ IFC GP/ FY Approval Commitment Disbursement $ (as Department US$ of June 30, 2016) Irrigation Development and P102459 WB Agriculture 2011 115M 28.8M Support Project Regional Agricultural P094183 WB Agriculture 2013 89.9M 33.5M Productivity Program for Southern Africa - APPSA Zambia: Livestock P122123 WB Agriculture 2012 50M 29M Development and Animal Health Project Eastern and Southern Africa P151847 WB Education 2016 12M 0 Higher Education Centres of Excellence Kafue-Muzuma-Victoria Falls P124351 WB Energy & 2012 60M 36.2M Regional Transmission Line Extractives Reinforcement Project Lusaka Transmission and P133184 WB Energy & 2013 105M 12M Distribution Rehabilitation Extractives Project Zambia COMACO Landscape P144254 WB Environment & 2015 0 0 Management Natural Resources Zambia Strengthening Climate P127254 WB Environment & 2013 36M 11.6M Resilience Natural Resources Displaced persons and Border P152821 WB Social 2016 20M 0 Communities Protection & Labor Girls Education & Womens P151451 WB Social 2015 65M 3.6M Empowerment and Livelihood Protection & Project Labor Agrivision Africa 34461 IFC MAS 2015 20M - Zambeef Expn 31091 IFC MAS 2012 70.2M - Zambeef Prod PLC 29013 IFC MAS 2010 7M - AB Zambia 28186 IFC FIG 2010 0.9M - Bayport Zambia 33794 IFC FIG 2014 26.9M - FNB Zambia 36658 IFC FIG 2015 25M - ZANACO 28361 IFC FIG 2010 25M - 75 IFC departments refer to MAS (Manufacturing, Agribusiness, and Services), FIG (Financial Institutions Group), and INR (Infrastructure and Natural Resources). 48 Table E2 Closed WBG Portfolio, FY 2006-16, Flagged for Jobs Project Name Project ID WB/ IFC GP/ Department FY Approval Commitment Disbursement $ (as US$ of June 30, 2016) Agricultural Development P070063 WB Agriculture 2006 35.3M 37.5M Support Program ZM: Increased Access to P077452 WB Energy & 2008 57.8M 55.8M Electricity Services Extractives Poverty Reduction Support P107218, WB Macroeconomics 2010 83.7M 83.7M Credit (PRSC 1-3) P117370, and Fiscal P126349 Management Road Rehabilitation and P106596 WB Transport & ICT 2010 75M 71.6M Maintenance Project Phase II Kiwara Plc 28130 IFC INR 2009 20M - Madison Group 25537 IFC FIG 2007 7M - AEF Protea Hotel 25605 IFC MAS 2007 5.7M - Table E3 Pipeline WBG Portfolio, FY 2006-16, Flagged for Jobs Project Name Project ID WB/ IFC GP/ FY Approval Commitment Disbursement $ (as Department US$ of June 30, 2016) Zambia Integrated Forest P155827 WB Agriculture 2017 0 0 Landscapes Program Zambia Education Sector P158570 WB Education 50M Enhancement Project Guarantee for Scaling Solar P157943 WB Energy & 2017 52M 0 Extractives Zambia Mining and P154683 WB Environment & 2017 55.6M 0 Environmental Remediation Natural and Improvement Project Resources Zambia Agribusiness and P156492 WB Trade & 2017 40M 0 Trade Project Competitiveness Zambia: Improved Rural P159330 WB Transport & ICT 2017 200M 0 Connectivity Project Zoona 38220 IFC FIG - 6M - SS Zambia 37811 IFC INR - 75M - 49 Table E4 Donor Projects in Zambia as of 2016 Partner Name Program Start Project description Size, in US$ Date DFID Private Enterprise 20M 2014 The Private Enterprise Program in Zambia (PEP) is focused on job creation through SME development. It Programme - PEP will be running a business plan competition, enhancing business linkages between SMEs and key supply chains, improving the provision of business development services and providing impact investment/growth accelerator funding for targeted SMEs. DFID / Musika 7.2M Musika supports its corporate partners in developing commercial relationships with smallholders to SIDA integrate them in their supply chains. DFID Zambia Economic Advocacy 5.3M 2012 ZEAP seeks to raise the level of informed public debate through strengthening policy relevance of the Program (ZEAP) topic of Jobs through expertise in economic analysis, advocacy/communication, and quality assurance. ILO / Green Jobs in the 12M 2013 The program uses a value chain approach to create 5,000 jobs and to improve the quality of 2,000 jobs in Finland Construction Sector MSMEs of the building construction industry. The program focuses particularly on young people. ILO / SIDA Yapasa – Rural Youth 7M 2014 The program aims to create jobs for Zambia's youth in rural and peri-urban MSMEs. Moreover, the Enterprise for Food program will improve food security through an increase in agricultural production. Security ILO / SIDA Support to employment The project supports the Ministry of Youth and Sport of the Government of Zambia to enhance policies, jobs and skills for coordination of youth employment interventions and strengthen institutional frameworks for the youth in Zambia effective implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP) on Youth Employment. Moreover, the project supports the Government in assigning priority to youth employment in the National Employment and Labor Market Policy. Lastly, the project supports the Zambia congress of trade unions in increasing youth participation in trade unionism and promoting the rights of youth at work. AFDB Global Agriculture and 34.8M 2014 The project aims to improve irrigation development, develop value chains, and build capacity in districts Food Security Program with the highest levels of poverty and food insecurity. (GAFSP) AFDB Livestock Infrastructure 19M 2013 The project develops transport, storage, and marketing infrastructure to support the livestock value chain Support Project (LISP) and trains farmers on improved technologies, farmer organization, and women participation. AFDB Power Transmission Project 142M The project aims to provide reliable electricity service as well as clean water and sewerage facilities for the local population. AFDB / Small Scale Irrigation 9.1M 2002 The project supervises the construction of the dam in Kanakantapa, Chongwe District. Finland 50 BIBLIOGRAPHY Alby, Philippe, Jean-Jacques Dethier, and Stephane Straub. 2012. Firm Operating under Electricity Constraints in Developing Countries. Washington, DC: World Bank. 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Education Public Expenditure Review in Zambia. A World Bank Study. Washington, DC: World Bank. ———.2015c. 6thZambia Economic Brief: Powering the Zambian Economy. A World Bank Study. Washington, DC: World Bank. ———.2016. 7th Zambia Economic Brief: Beating the Slowdown: Making Every Kwacha Count. A World Bank Study. Washington, DC: World Bank. ———.2017a. forthcoming. A Conceptual Framework for Jobs: Interventions and Outcomes. Washington, DC: World Bank.. Washington, DC: World Bank. ———.2017b. forthcoming. Monitoring & Evaluation for Jobs Operations: An Introduction to the Jobs M&E Toolkit. Washington, DC: World Bank. 52 MORE JOBS WORKING PAPERS: 1. Fostering Quality of Employment for Women 2. Where to Create Jobs to Reduce Poverty: Cities or Towns? 3. Targeted SME Financing and Employment Effects : What Do We Know and What Can We Do Differently? 53 Address: 1776 G St, NW, Washington, DC 20006 Website: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/jobsanddevelopment Twitter: @WBG_Jobs Blog: https://blogs.worldbank.org/jobs/