7-100 Document of The World Bank F I LE C P Y FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 268 1-TUN STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT SOUTHERN IRRIGATION PROJECT TUNISIA December 19, 1979 Europe, Middle East and North Africa Projects Department This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS WEIGHTS AND MEASURES US$1.00 = D 0.408 Metric System D 1.00 = US$2.45 ABBREVIATIONS AIC - Oasis Farmer Association (Association de l'Interet Collectif) BNT - National Bank of Tunisia (Banque Nationale de Tunisie) CI - Continental Intercalary Aquifer CLCM - Mutual Credit Bank (Caisse Locale de Credit Mutuel) CNEA - National Agriculture Studies Center (Centre National des Etudes Agricoles) CRDA - Regional Agricultural Development Agency (Centre Regional de Developpement Agricole) CT - Complex Terminal Aquifer DRES - Water and Soil Resources Agency (Direction des Ressources en Eaux et en Sols) FOSDA - Agriculture Development Fund (Fonds Special de Developpement Agricole) GID - Agency for Date Production and Distribution (Groupement Interprofessionnel des Dattes) GR - Rural Development Department of the Ministry of Agriculture (Genie Rural) OC - Cereal Distribution and Marketing Agency (Office des Cereales) OEP - National Livestock and Range Agency (Office de l'Elevage et des Paturages) OMV - Agricultural Development Agency (Office de Mise en Valeur) OMVD - Agricultural Development Agency for the Djerid Area (Office de Mise en Valeur du Djerid) OMVG - Agricultural Development Agency for the Gabes Governorate (Office de Mise en Valeur du Gabes) OMVVM - Medjerda Valley Development Agency (Office de Mise en Valeur de la Vallee de la Medjerda) REPI - Corporation for Public Irrigation Areas (Regie d'Exploitation des Perimetres Irrigues) RSH - Agency for Hydraulic Drillings (Regie des Sondages Hydrauliques) STEG - Tunisian Electricity Company (Socifte Tunisienne de l'Electricitg et du Gaz) STIL - Tunisian Company for Milk Industry (Societe Tunisienne de l'Industrie Laitiere) FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY TUNISIA STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT OF THE SOUTHERN IRRIGATION PROJECT Table of Contents Page No. I. THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR .......*...................... 1 A. Role of Agriculture in the Tunisian Economy ..... I B. Land Use ...................................... 2 C. Government's Objectives in Agriculture .......... 3 D. Sector Issues ................................... 4 E. Previous Projects and Bank Role .... ............. 7 II. THE PROJECT AREA, ITS DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AND CONSTRAINTS . ......................................... 8 A. Location, Population and Climate .... ............ 8 B. Water and Soil Resources ..... ................... 9 C. Land Use and Land Tenure ........................ 12 D. Agricultural Support Services ................... 14 E. Agricultural Production, Marketing and Processing ...................................... 15 F. Development Objectives .......................... 16 III. THE PROJECT ......*................................... 17 A. Origin and Objectives ............. .. ............ 17 B. Description of the Project ........... .. ......... 17 C. Status of Engineering ............. .. ............ 20 D. Cost Estimates ................. .. ............... 20 E. Financing . ...................... ................ 21 F. Implementation ................. .. ............... 22 G. Procurement ................... 23 H. Disbursements ................... 24 I. Environmental Effects ............. .. ............ 25 IV. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION .................... ........... 26 A. Project Execution and Management .... ............ 26 B. Cost Recovery .......... ........................ . 28 C. Accounts and Audits ............................. 29 This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission in May 1979 con- sisting of Mr. J. Cerych and Miss M. Varkie (Bank) and Messrs. I. Bergeron, J. Marinet and M. Saint-Pe (Consultants). | This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their offcial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Table of Contents (Continued) Page No. V. PROJECT PRODUCTION AND MARKETING .... ................. 29 A. Production and Yields ........................... 29 B. Prices .......................................... 32 VI. PROJECT BENEFITS AND BENEFICIARIES ......... .......... 34 A. Project Benefits ................................ 34 B. Financial Analysis .............................. 35 C. Economic Analysis ............................... 36 VII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............... 38 ANNEXES 1. Table 1 - Project Costs and Schedule of Expenditures Table 2 - Schedule of Disbursements Chart 1 - OMV Organization Chart Chart 2 - Implementation Schedule 2. Table 1 - Incremental Production Generated under the Project Table 2 - Basic Infrastructure 3. Selected Documents and Data Available in the Project File MAPPS IBRD 14434 IBRD 14435 TUNISIA STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT OF THE SOUTHERN IRRIGATION PROJECT I. THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR A. Role of Agriculture in the Tunisian Economy 1.01 Tunisia's population is estimated at 6.0 million (1978), and the average rate of population growth during 1966-1975 was 2.3% p.a. Agriculture contributed to about 15% of the GDP in 1978 and accounted for about 35% of total employment. Although the sector has shown significant growth, its relative share in the Tunisian economy has continued to decline, mainly because of the expansion of other sectors, especially industry. 1.02 During 1970-1978 value added in agriculture grew at a compound rate of 6.8% p.a. in real terms. This expansion was helped by the favorable weather conditions between 1972 and 1976 as well as by: (a) improvements in methods of cultivation attributable to a major effort on the part of the extension ser- vices; (b) increased use of agricultural inputs and of mechan- ization; (c) enhanced forage resources; (d) irrigation of additional areas; and (e) development of credit facilities. Agricultural production in Tunisia remains very much dependent on weather conditions. The cereals subsector continues to be most vulnerable, because of its sensitivity to drought. Poor weather conditions in 1977 and 1978 resulted in a significant drop in cereal production, and a sharp increase in food imports. During the Fourth Development Plan (1973-1976) agricultural exports were nearly equal to food imports (on average D 74 million annually exported compared to D 76 million imported). In 1978, D 74.0 million of agricultural products were exported while imports reached D 106.6 million. The decline in real terms of exports was due largely to poor weather despite sizable invest- ments in irrigation, machinery and equipment, and increased use of inputs. Tunisia's agriculture exports are olive oil (D 936.5 million in 1978), fresh fruit and vegetables (D 10.4 million), processed agricultural products (D 9.0 million), fish and shellfish (D 7.2 million) and wine (D 5.8 million). Tunisia is currently deficient in three vital commodity groups: cereals, sugar and dairy products. -2- B. Land Use 1.03 In Northern Tunisia, where average rainfall exceeds 350 mm, rainfed crops (mainly wheat and barley) are grown. In Central and Southern Tunisia, with an average rainfall of 100-350 mm, agriculture is characterized by rainfed tree crops (predominantly olives and almonds), marginal cereal produc- tion, and sheep grazing. In the oases, dates and some fruits and vegetables are cultivated. 1.04 Of a total area of 16.4 million ha, land suitable for agriculture amounts to 9 million ha, of which 4.5 million ha are registered as cultivable, 1.1 million ha are covered by forests and esparto grass, and 3.4 million ha are grazing and other lands. At present, about 150,000 ha or 3.3% of the cultivable land is under irrigation. The production of the irrigated areas represent in value more than 20% of the total agricultural production of the country. The main products are vegetables (86,000 ha), forage (23,000 ha), tree crops (6,000 ha) and sugar beet (4,000 ha). The maximum potential for irrigation is estimated at 250,000 ha or 5.5% of the cultivable land. 1.05 More than one-half of the agricultural land (some 5.4 million ha) is privately owned land characterized by: (a) a large number of small farms (41% of all farms have less than 5 ha); (b) a concentration of ownership (68% of the land is taken up by farms exceeding 20 ha in size that belong to 16% of the farmers); (c) a marked fragmentation (only 32% of the landholdings of 20 ha and less are in single parcels, 20% are composed of 6 or more separate plots); and (d) a lack of title for a large number of the privately owned lands. Collective land amounts to 2.1 million ha. The remaining land amounting to about 1.5 million ha is State-owned of which about 0.8 million ha are forests. This breakdown is being changed since all collective land suitable for growing cereals or tree crops (about 1.1 million ha) is being distributed to eligible people selected by community management councils. Collective grazing lands will continue to be used in common, but their demarcation, improvement and conservation has been entrusted to the Forestry Department. State-owned land is being used for State farms and pilot farms (0.2 million ha), agricultural cooperatives (0.2 million ha) and a land reserve of 0.3 million ha set aside for agrarian reform operations. -3- C. Government's Objectives in Agriculture 1.06 Tunisian agricultural policy is geared towards increasing rural incomes and living standards through: (a) increasing agricultural productivity by facilitating the access of farmers to improved production methods and agricultural credit; (b) strengthening agricultural institutions; and (c) mobilizing natural resources through the creation of the necessary infrastructure and the intensification of efforts to control erosion, desertification and degradation of soils and forests. 1.07 The objective of the Fifth Plan (1977-1981) is to achieve self- sufficiency in food by 1981, defined as a balanced trade account for food expressed in specific terms as: (a) an exportable surplus of hard wheat at least sufficient to compensate for imports of soft wheat; (b) self-sufficiency in meat; and (c) imports of vegetable oils, milk and sugar, livestock products and fertilizers to be offset by exports of olive oil, wine, citrus and other fruits, fresh or processed vegetables and fisheries products. 1.08 Quantitative targets have been set as follows: (a) an average annual increase of 6.5% in agricultural production at constant prices; (b) investments amounting to D 500 million, which would imply that the average annual real investment in agriculture would be 45% greater than during the Fourth Plan; and (c) the creation of 30,000 additional permanent jobs in agriculture and of 6,000 jobs in fisheries. A major increase in the share of water development in total agricultural investment is foreseen, from 23% in the Fourth Plan to 44% in the Fifth Plan. Significant investment increases in livestock and fisheries are also planned. 1.09 The results obtained during the first two years of the current Plan show that the investment timetables were fairly closely followed with some minor delays affecting investments in tree crops, fisheries and irrigation. - 4 - However, it is unlikely that the production targets will be met, especially in cereals. The results so far have been disappointing mainly due to bad weather conditions in 1977 and 1978, but also because a large number of medium and small farmers have been slow in improving their cultivation methods (use of selected seeds and adequate inputs) and yields remain low. It is not likely that an exportable surplus of hard wheat will be obtained by 1981 and imports of soft wheat are likely to be higher than projected. Sugar production will also fail to achieve the target due to delays in construction of the sugar plant in Bou-Seb, which was projected to produce 140,000 tons of sugar by 1981. The production targets for other commodities will probably be met. D. Sector Issues 1.10 The share of agricultural investment in total investment under the Fifth Plan is about the same as in the preceding Plan (11.9% as compared with 12.5%). As has been noted in para. 1.08 the average annual investment effort in real terms in the Fifth Plan is to be 45% greater than during the Fourth Plan. However, much of these investments are in large infrastructure which will not pay off during the current Plan and will therefore not contri- bute to its primary objective which is self-sufficiency in food by 1981. About 72% of the total investment in irrigation is for new projects which will not enter into production until after 1981. The Government is aware that there is an urgent need for increased utilization of past investments. 1.11 Land reform. Efforts by the Tunisian Government to restructure landholding have been primarily concentrated in two main areas: (a) the distribution of collective land and of state-owned land to the private sector; and (b) the reorganization of land tenure in association with the establishment of irrigation perimeters. Establishment of public irrigation perimeters has always been associated with the following measures: (a) by setting a minimum and a maximum size of farm; (b) contribution by owners to development costs; (c) land consolidation; and (d) requirements that at least two-thirds of the holding is irrigated. The land reform program has generally been well implemented except in the Medjerda Valley. The Government has followed up on its policy of delimiting - 5 - farm sizes, but in some irrigation areas the minimum and maximum sizes selected have been either too small or too large, giving rise to technical difficulties in the operation of farms and to under-utilization of land and water. The consolidation of land has been completed or is well advanced in all developed irrigation areas. The owner's contribution to investment costs has been difficult to enforce and owners have been reluctant to develop the land at their own expenses. 1.12 To address these problems, the Government recently created a special agency to handle agrarian reform operations in the public irrigation perimeters (Agence de la Reforme Agraire dans les Perimetres Publics Irrigues). This agency has already contributed to more efficient operations in the newly estab- lished areas. 1.13 The private rainfed farms have so far been subject to few land reorganization and consolidation measures. The excessive number of small farms and the fragmentation of holdings are detrimental to production and the Government should be urged to take the necessary remedial steps as early as possible, especially in areas where rainfed farming has good development potential. 1.14 Price policies. Prices of agricultural products in Tunisia reflect the Government's concern with the stability of the urban cost of living. Agricultural prices are controlled in a number of ways. For the major com- modities of cereals, olive oil and wine there are fixed product prices and state monopoly agencies are responsible for the purchasing, importing and exporting of these commodities and for their domestic distribution at fixed prices. For some other commodities, prices are regulated by import policy and the operation of state trading companies in conjunction with subsidies from the Price Equalization Fund (e.g. meat). A re-assessment of the Government's price policy concerning farm outputs and inputs seems called for, to determine changes which would be needed to bring farmers' profits in line with output targets set by the Fifth Plan. 1.15 Most agricultural inputs are subsidized either by supporting prices at a low artificial level or by granting farmers a purchase subsidy asso- ciated with credit. Irrigation water is also subsidized, its selling price varies between 4 and 10 millimes/m3 and is well below the operating and maintenance costs of the irrigation system. Increases in the price of irriga- tion water have, however, been made recently and studies are underway with a view to designing a system of charges that would cover the full operating and maintenance costs. 1.16 Agricultural credit. Agricultural credit in Tunisia is available through the Ministry of Agriculture's Special Fund for Agricultural Develop- ment (FOSDA), the commercial banks, especially BNT, and the Mutual Credit Banks (CLCM). Short-term credit is granted to larger farmers by BNT and to a small extent by other commercial banks. Credit to small farmers is provided by the CLCMs and by several Government agencies under specific programs (usually credit in kind, as part of an input package for a given crop or a given region). Although the amount of credit to farmers (short- and long- term) has increased from D 14.9 million in 1975 to D 26.0 million in 1978, the -6- number of farmers having access to credit is still rather limited: about 25,000 short-term loans and 12,000 medium/long-term loans were granted by BNT in 1978. This means that only about 11% of the 326,000 Tunisian farmers benefitted from agricultural credit in general, and only 4% received any investment credit. Small farmer's access probably has been even more limited mainly because of security requirements (many hold no title to their land) and the credit institutions, especially BNT are reluctant to engage in a program where both costs and risks are high. The Bank is addressing this issue through the Agricultural Credit Project II (Loan 1340-TUN) bv earmarking a part of the loan for subloans to small farmers, by inducing BNT to develop and apply a better sub-project evaluation system and by having BNT assume a greater part of the risk. The Bank will continue its effort in the same direction under the Third Agricultural Credit Project to be appraised in FY80. 1.17 Agricultural training and education. The agricultural training and schooling efforts which started under the Fourth Plan and were continued under the Fifth Plan resulted in a substantial increase in the number of university graduates and technicians, so that presently the number of university graduates is already catching up with the available job opportunities and there is an excess of technicians and skilled workers. To solve this issue the Government should address itself to possibilities of expanding opportunities and of improving the planning of enrollment in specialized schools. 1.18 Agricultural extension activities. The multiplicity of agencies providing extension services of various kinds tends to reduce their effective- ness despite the heavy investment of human and financial resources made in this field (300 agricultural engineers, 1,150 extension agents and 1,000 vehicles under the Fourth Plan). The planned reorganization under the Fifth Plan has the following objectives: (a) each farmer is to be advised by one extension agent and not by several agents from various specialized agencies; (b) a decentralized network of extension services based on extension units in each Governorate subdivision (dele- gation) is to be created; and (c) extension services in irrigation perimeters managed by Agricultural Development Agencies (Offices de Mise en Valeur - OMVs) are to be handled exclusively by these agencies. Due to financial and organizational constraints there have been delays in implementing these plans. The Government should be urged to allocate the funds necessary to proceed with the planned reorganization as soon as possible. 7- E. Previous Projects and Bank Role 1.19 The Bank's agricultural sector strategy in Tunisia is to emphasize rural development, create new irrigation infrastructures, and rehabilitate existing ones, provide credit to farmers and develop fisheries. Bank group lending for agriculture in Tunisia began in 1967 and to date seven projects have been financed or approved for a total of US$114.7 million of Bank/IDA funds. They include two irrigation projects: Irrigation Rehabilitation in the Lower Medjerda Valley and Nebhana (FY75) and the Sidi Salem Multipurpose Project (FY79). There have also been two Fisheries Projects (FY72 and FY79), two Agricultural Credit Projects (FY71, completed and reviewed by OED in 1979, and FY77) and a Cooperative Farm Project (FY68, completed and reviewed by OED in January 1976). The OED recommendations made for the date palm plantation component of the First Agricultural Credit Project have been taken into account in the proposed project. The agricultural sector has also been addressed by the Rural Roads Project (FY78) which aims at improving 60 rural roads totalling about 1,000 km. This loan also finances agricultural facilities, equipment and vehicles for agricultural extension units. The irrigation projects are performing satisfactorily. The Irrigation Rehabilitation Project aims at rehabilitating and improving the use of existing water resources as set out in the primary stages of the Water Master Plan. The Project covers the Lower Medjerda Valley and Nebhana. The Lower Medjerda Valley component includes about 20,000 ha of which 75% are already equipped with irrigation and drainage facilities; the remainder lacks secondary and tertiary distribution networks. The Nebhana component includes the rehabilitation of existing irrigation, drainage and road networks over about 5,000 ha. Physical implementation is satisfactory. The Sidi Salem Multipurpose Project represents the first phase of execution of the Northern Tunisia Water Master Plan. The Project includes the irrigation of 10,600 ha in the Testour/Medjez el Bab and Cap Bon areas, and aims at preventing the decline of 6,000 ha of citrus in Cap Bon, improving agricultural production on 32,800 ha in the Lower Medjerda Valley, reducing periodic flood damage, generating electricity and supplying about 100 million m3/year of potable and industrial water to the Tunis area. Implementation is generally satisfactory, but there are some delays in the construction of the dam and railroad substructures. The First Fisheries Project will be completed by the end of 1979. Progress was slower than expected and the lending channel, BNT, has been experiencing difficulties with loan recovery. The Second Fisheries Project was approved by the Board in June 1979, and is expected to become effective by the end of 1979. Implementation of the Second Agricultural Credit Project, which aims at supporting a lending program for development of small and commercial farms, for agroindustries and for smallholder date palm plantation development, is satisfactory. The Project is expected to be completed by December 31, 1980. 1.20 The Bank's lending program for Tunisia is consistent with Tunisia's Development Plan objectives. It stresses the need to continue the dialogue with Government on the approach to rural development projects for Bank financing which are oriented towards the target group. The program envisages a Second and Third Irrigation Rehabilitation Project, which would contribute to implementation of water development policy proposals to be prepared under - 8 - the on-going Sidi-Salem Multipurpose Project; a Third and Fourth Agricultural Credit Project, which would provide the basis for continued Bank's assistance in extending credit to small farmers and in improving credit policies and institutions; and two Regional Agricultural Development Projects, which would concentrate on programs for economically backward areas. II. THE PROJECT AREA, ITS DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AND CONSTRAINTS A. Location, Population and Climate 2.01 The Project would be located in the semi-desertic southern and southeastern part of the country (map IBRD 14435), in three areas, namely the Djerid and Nefzaoua areas respectively north and southeast of Chott El Djerid, some 400 km south of Tunis, and the area around the town of Gabes on the southeastern Tunisian coast. The Djerid area is part of the Gafsa governor- ate, the Nefzaoua and Gabes areas belong to the Gabes governorate. 2.02 The principal towns in the Djerid are Tozeur, Nefta and Degache. The population of the Djerid amounts to 48,700 inhabitants (1975 census) of which about 70% live in the three cities. The Nefzaoua has a total population of about 69,700 inhabitants living in some 80 small villages and townships of which the most important are Kebili and Douz with a total population of about 19,000 inhabitants. The dispersion of the Nefzaoua population as compared to the Djerid is due to the scattering of a great number of small oases. Private oases cover about 4,000 ha and 4,800 ha in the Djerid and Nefzaoua respectively. The population of the coastal Gabes Project area is about 90,500 of which 65% live in the town of Gabes. Some 40% of the total population (in all three areas) is under the age of 15 years and the population growth rate is between 2.3% and 3% p.a. 2.03 The active population is estimated to be about 27,000 in the Djerid, 35,000 in the Nefzaoua and 45,000 in the Gabes coastal area. The main occu- pation of the population in the Djerid and Nefzaoua areas is agriculture fol- lowed by services and tourism. No official statistics exist on unemployment or underemployment but estimates by CNEA assume underemployment to be between 25% and 35%. Due to the rapid development of industry and tourism, unemploy- ment is not so high in and around Gabes. 2.04 The Project area is fairly well connected by hard surface roads to the rest of the country. A railroad also operates from Tozeur and Gabes, and a commercial airport has been recently opened near Tozeur. The Rural Roads Project (1601-TUN) finances inter alia in the Nefzaoua area improvements of about 100 km of rural roads which will substantially improve the communica- tion network in the remote southwestern part of the Project area. - 9 - 2.05 The climate in the Nefzaoua and Djerid areas is characterized by low and irregular rainfall of about 100 mm/year, of which about 35% falls during autumn. In the Gabes area, the rainfall is about 200 mm/year. The tempera- ture in the interior reaches the extremes of +55 0C in July and August and -7 C in the winter. The average temperature varies between +10 C in January and +32 C in July. The temperature along the coast averages +11 C in January and +27.4 C in July. Winds are frequent both in the interior and in the coastal areas. B. Water and Soil Resources Water 2.06 Originally, irrigation water was provided exclusively by springs with substantial flow rates (1,930 l/s in the Djerid and 660 1/s in Nefzaoua in 1920). With the introduction of deep well-drilling techniques, numerous wells were sunk close to springs in order to increase the volume of water available for traditional date palm, fruit and vegetable cultivations; subse- quently such wells were also sunk outside the traditional perimeters for the development of modern date palm plantations. A natural consequence of the increased exploitation of the water resources was a decrease in the flow or drying out of natural springs and a decrease or disappearance of the artesian flow of the deep wells. 2.07 Groundwater resources of Southern Tunisia are in two major aquifers: The Complex Terminal (CT) called Djeffara in the coastal area of Gabes, and the Continental Intercalaire (CI). The CT aquifer is located between the deeper CI aquifer and a secondary saline water table near the surface. The depth of the CT aquifer, which is the most widely used, varies between about 80 m in Nefzaoua to over 500 m a few km north of Chott Djerid. In the Djerid area, the salt content is about 1.5-2 g/l in Tozeur and about 3.2 g/l in Nefta. In the Nefzaoua area, salinity is lowest around Douz with only 1-1.5 g/l; further north and to the west it increases and reaches 3.6-5 g/l at Fatamana on the furthest point of the Kebili Peninsula. The average salinity is currently about 2 to 3.5 g/l in the Nefzaoua area. In the Gabes area the salinity is about 3 g/l.l/ The CT aquifer is recharged in the mountains of Northern Algeria; the total recharge quantity is not well known but it is estimated to be at least equal to the original (prior to 1920) natural flow of the springs in the area (para. 2.06). The CI aquifer which is some 1,000- 1,700 m deep is not well known; its salinity varies between 2.5 g/l and 4.5 g/l and the water reserves are believed to be important. So far only three deep wells at Chott Fedjedj, originally sunk for petroleum exploration pur- poses, use the CI water resource. 1/ The salt tolerance of the date palm and alfalfa is over 7 g/l and vege- tables generally cultivated in the oases can tolerate up to 4 g/l without a substantial decrease in production. Water is not suitable for human consumption if the salt content reaches 3 g/l. - 10 - 2.08 The potential of the water resources in the Algerian and Tunisian Northern Sahara region was assessed by a detailed UNESCO survey financed by UNDP in 1968-1972. Two large scale simulation mathematical models were prepared to study the CT and CI aquifers, a smaller scale mathematical model simulated the CT aquifer in the area of Nefzaoua-Djerid, and in addition an electrical analogic model was prepared to study the coastal Djeffara aquifer. In 1974, the Government requested the French engineering firm, SOGREAH, to prepare a Master Plan for Water and Soil Resources Development in Southern Tunisia based on the UNESCO/UNDP survey and on the results of the simulation models which defined for different areas the level of exploitation of the aquifers within acceptable salinity levels. 2.09 The Master Plan estimate of the potential exploitable water resources in the Project area by the year 2000 is shown in the Table below: Exploitable Water Resources in Southern Tunisia (in 1/sec) Area/ Chott Gabes Gabes Gabes Water Resources Djerid Nefzaoua Fedjedj Vicinity El Hamma Mareth Springs 0 60 CT Aquifer (artesian) 0 2,500 CT Aquifer (pumped wells) 4,800 2,700 - CI Aquifer (artesian) 2,000 1,000 1,000 - - - Djeffara Aquifer - - - 1,750 900 750 Total 6,800 6,260 1,000 1,750 900 750 2.10 Present groundwater use in the Djerid and Nefzaoua areas amounts to about 3,000 1/sec each and is about 3,400 1/sec in the Gabes area (of which about 500 1/sec is used for purposes other than agriculture). If exploitation of the CI aquifer is for the present not taken into account due to its great depth, the resources that would still be available would be as follows: - 11 - asterplan Present Use Available 1---------------- 1sec ----------------- Djerid 4,800 3,000 1,800 Nefzaoua 5,260 3,000 2,260 Gabes Area 3,400 3,400 The planned private and Government projects other than the proposed one will increase water consumption by about 640 I/sec in the Djerid and by about 500 1/sec in Nefzaoua, leaving 1,160 1/sec still available in the Djerid and 1,760 I/sec in Nefzaoua. This allows for potential new date palm development on 1,660 ha and 2,510 ha respectively in each area (0.7 1/sec per ha). No addi- tional water resource development of the Djeffara aquifer in the Gabes region is planned and the proposed Project would not increase the present water use. 2.11 The aster Plan recognizes that any water resources development in Southern Tunisia would be accompanied by a lowering of the water table, and will result in an increase in salinity due to seepage of saltier water from the overlying or underlying aquifers through faults and semi-pervious zones. The Government Water and Soil Resource Agency (DRES) has built a new math- ematical simulation model in 1978 to study in greater detail the CT aquifer in the Nefzaoua area, where risk of salinization was considered higher than in the Djerid and where an important water resource development was planned (Kebili Peninsula oasis rehabilitation). The results of the model confirmed the findings of the UNESCO/UNDP survey and the Nefzaoua water resource devel- opment potential. The Government is aware that any water resources develop- ment must be carefully planned to avoid depletion and increased salinization of the water table. In 1975, the Government promulgated a new set of laws closely regulating water resource exploitation, water use and water conserva- tion. These laws are satisfactory and are being enforced. DRES is closely monitoring the aquifer development, drilling of new deep wells is subject to governmental approval and periodical new mathematical simulations to determine the aquifer development trends are planned (para. 3.26). According to article 25 of the water use and conservation laws, potable water supply has first priority and Government would take appropriate steps to ensure its availability should, in the future, in some areas, the water quality reach a point where it would become unsuitable for human consumption. The needs for municipal water are very low, and its quality could be improved by small desalinization plants, or conveyance of fresh water from less saline wells to the consumption sites. Soils 2.12 There are five different types of soils in the Djerid: (i) coarse sands with a gypseous crust near the surface unsuitable for agriculture on the Draa hills; (ii) deep sandy soils suitable for all irrigated crops found around the Draa hills; (iii) Hazoua soils which are also deep sandy soils suitable for irrigation but only after anti-erosion measures are taken to stabilize the sand; (iv) Southeast El Hamma soils which are characterized by a strong gypseous crust and are unsuitable for agricultural development; and - 12 - (v) salty soils in the Chott fringes with a water table less than 1.5 m deep. The lower part of Tozeur, Nefta and El Hamma have soils of the latter category. The Masterplan for Water and Soil Resources Development estimated that there were 6,000 ha of suitable soils in the area. 2.13 The Nefzaoua soils belong to three types: (i) saline halomorphic soils near depressions with little potential for agricultural development because of hydromorphy and salinity under the surface; (ii) alkali halo- morphic soils, in the depressions, unsuitable for agriculture because of high salinity and a salty water table at a depth of 50 cm; and (iii) calcomag- nesiomorphic soils, which are sandy soils with a good porosity and high gypsum content suitable for date palm plantation development. The Masterplan evalu- ated the potential for development at 2,000 ha. 2.14 The soils in the coastal Project area are either alluvial with red and yellow sandy clays; or hydromorphic with a crust at a variable depth. The deeper the crust, the better the potential for agricultural development. The Masterplan estimated the potential for development in the area at 1,300 ha. 2.15 In general, soil availability in the Project area is a lesser constraint to agricultural development than water supply. C. Land Use and Land Tenure 2.16 Traditional oases in Djerid and Nefzaoua cover about 7,000 ha and their main characteristics are: (a) high fragmentation of ownership with average holdings of about 0.5 ha; (b) "three level agriculture" with date palms, fruit trees and vegetables/forage; (c) high density of 200-300 trees per ha; (d) small proportion of Deglat Nour date palms (35%); (e) poor irrigation and drainage systems with simple ditches (seguias); and (f) water deficits varying in intensity from one oasis to another. Water distribution follows centuries old traditions and is supervised by Oasis Farmers Associations (AIC) which also take care of the irrigation and drainage network maintenance in most of the oases. The yields are low due to the high density of trees and lack of water. Tenants and small-holders - 13 - belong largely to the target group. Emigration towards coastal urban centers and abroad has traditionally been high due to the little employment opportuni- ties in the inland oases. 2.17 The ownership is less fragmented in the coastal oases with individual plots larger (average 1 ha) than in the interior. The climate is less favor- able to date production and the main crops are vegetables and forage. Lack of water resources is the main constraint to agricultural development. 2.18 To reverse the trend of oases decline, the Government decided upon a program of oases rehabilitation, which included the following: (a) drilling of new wells where needed and possible; (b) equipment of wells with pumps where the artesian flow had diminished or disappeared; (c) increase of water supply by rehabilitation of irriga- tion networks and replacing the old irrigation ditches which have water losses over 30% with cemented canals or pipes; (d) rehabilitation or creation of drainage canals; and (e) teaching the farmers modern techniques for quality date production. Several oases have already been successfully rehabilitated in recent years; the most important being the oases of Nefta, Degache and Kebili Peninsula. 2.19 Grazing lands and livestock. Livestock, nearly exclusively sheep and goats, are traditionally kept by the farmers and smallholders in the oases, as well as by the nomads. On the rangelands around the oases, exten- sive grazing is possible on the state and tribal lands, but the quality and quantity of fodder is extremely poor and during drought years is practically non existent. A part of the nutriments needed to sustain the existing flock in the Djerid and Nefzaoua areas, estimated at 150,000 animals, is supplied from the oases where some alfalfa and barley are grown. However, due to chronic undernourishment, the health of the animals is generally poor, the fecondity is low and the mortality at birth and before weaning is high. 2.20 No statistics exist to establish with precision what the actual deficit in fodder in the Project area is, but estimates made in 1978 by SETEC International, a French consulting firm, put it as high as 25-75% of the estimated needs. Even if the lower limit of 25% is adopted, the additional quantity of alfalfa hay or equivalent needed to sustain the existing flock in reasonably good health would be 16,500 t/year. Given the limited natural resources of the Project area it would not be possible to increase fodder production to that extent and Governmental policy should not only aim at increasing fodder production on irrigated land, but should also take measures - 14 - to improve the steppe (experimentations to this effect have been conducted in Southern Tunisia recently by the Ministry of Agriculture in collaboration with the Utah State University). 2.21 New plantations cover about 3,150 ha of which the Government controlled Tunisian Company for Milk Industry (STIL) manages about 1,150 ha. The privately owned modern plantations were originally developed by the Government on state lands and later were distributed to farmers in plots of two to four ha. In these plantations, the density of palm trees is 125 to 160 trees per ha, the date variety cultivated is mainly the Deglat Nour and the number of other fruit trees is limited. The production in these plantations is generally good and in some cases excellent (e.g. Ghardgaya). The source of water is exclusively from deep wells which are either artesian or pumped. 2.22 STIL became involved in date palm plantation management in the early sixties, when it took over nationalized mature plantations created by expatri- ate settlers. Some of these plantations were extended and a few new ones were created in the late sixties and early seventies. The Bank's First Agricultural Credit Project (Loan/Credit 770/263 of 1971) included a component for financing of the foreign exchange costs of a 900 ha of date palm plantations to be created by STIL in the Djerid and Nefzaoua areas. The plantations are well managed and yields are expected to be high. D. Agricultural Support Services 2.23 The Ministry of Agriculture is represented in each Governorate by a Regional Agricultural Development Agency (CRDA), which supervises the technical services of the Ministry in the Governorate, these include the services of the Rural Development Agency (Genie Rural-GR), Water and Soil Resources Agency (DRES), Forestry Agency, the Corporation for Public Irrigation Areas (REPI), Agency for Date Production and Distribution (GID), National Livestock and Range Agency (OEP) and the Cereal Marketing and Distribution Agency (OC). CRDA is also responsible for the coordination of all agricultural projects in each Governorate. 2.24 Extension Services. Extension services to farmers are provided by CRDA in the continental areas, and by a regional branch of the Medjerda Valley Development Agency (OMVVM) in the coastal area. One agricultural engineer and 25 extension agents cover at present the whole continental region. Some of the agents have demonstration plots on which they cultivate vegetables under plastic tunnels. Extension services geared especially towards date protection on trees, pesticide use and date harvesting are also provided in the Project area by six agents of GID. In the coastal area of Gabes, where mainly vege- tables are cultivated, periodic seminars are conducted by OMVVM on early vegetable production, pest control and agricultural machinery maintenance. 2.25 Given the high fragmentation of ownership in the oases the present extension effort is not adequate as one agent has to advise on average some 560 farLriers on 280 ha of oases. To succeed in its oases rehabilitation - 15 - program, largely designed to introduce new methods of date cultivation and vegetable/forage intercropping, the Government intends to substantially increase the number of its agents so that one agent would cover about 200 farmers on an oasis area of 100 ha. 2.26 Research. Little agricultural research is currently being carried out in the area. Research in drip irrigation was started in 1975 on a very small scale (3 ha) by GID, but was discontinued because of lack of funds. Some experimentation was also done in new methods of date harvesting, but no results have so far been published. 2.27 Agricultural credit. Medium term credit for agricultural investments is available to farmers from the Agricultural Development Fund (FOSDA) managed for the Government by BNT. In the Project area BNT has branches in Tozeur, Kebili and Gabes. Short term credit is provided under supervision of BNT by the Mutual Credit Banks (CLCM) with offices in Tozeur and Gabes and in the coastal oases credit in kind (fertilizers, seeds and pesticides) is provided by OMVVM. However, only a small proportion of farmers have access to invest- ment credit (para 1.16). E. Agricultural Production, Marketing and Processing 2.28 Production and marketing. The date palm starts to produce the fourth or fifth year after planting, but the quantity of dates is small and the quality mediocre. Significant production starts the seventh or eighth year with yields increasing gradually until about the fifteenth year. Although the date palm still produces after hundred years, it is generally considered that after 60 years, the production declines and the trees should be replaced. The Deglat Nour variety is the least productive in terms of quantity, with yearly production of a mature tree in a densely planted tradi- tional oasis averaging about 20kg/tree. The yields are somewhat higher in the case of the Allig, the second best variety (30 kg) and about double in the case of common variety dates. The yields in the modern plantations, where the density of trees is much lower (100-125 trees/ha), vary between 80-120 kg/tree. A good but not exceptional yield in a well managed and correctly irrigated plantation is about lOt/ha of Deglat. 2.29 Smallholders sell their crops either as standing crop to wholesalers or harvest the dates themselves, sort them according to quality, and then sell them to wholesalers or exporters. Absentee owners often sell the whole harvest to their tenants who take charge of harvesting, sorting and rating before reselling them to wholesalers. The wholesalers resell the dates to merchants in the bigger cities or to exporters. During the last decade Tunisian date production varied between 40 and 50 thousand t/year of which the Deglat variety represented in the last five years about 40%. 2.30 Fruit, vegetable and forage production in the continental oases is mainly for the farmers' own consumption with surpluses being sold in the - 16 - local markets, cash income from these sales is low compared to the income from dates. In the coastal oases where vegetable is the main cash crop farmers sell their products most often to their service cooperative which takes care of the marketing. 2.31 Processing. The policy of the Government is to increase as much as possible the production and exports of processed dates. Presently, there are seven processing stations in Tunisia of which two have been installed recently by GID in Kebili (Nefzaoua) and Tozeur (Djerid). Data concerning the capaci- ties of the private plants is not available. The capacities of the GID facilities are as follows: Kebili Tozeur Total Dehydration 10 t/day 900 t/year Desinsectization - 45 t/day 4,050 t/year Conditioning 12 t/day 12 t/day 2,160 t/year As a large proportion of the Deglat dates is actually processed in Tunis, these capacities are adequate for the present supply but could not absorb any major increase in date production resulting from the Project. F. Development Objectives 2.32 Agriculture and limited tourism are the only activities which can be developed in order to improve the living conditions of the population in the desertic continental southern Tunisia. Government's strategy to develop the area is to: (i) arrest oases decline by rehabilitating their irrigation and drainage infrastructure (para 2.18); (ii) create new plantations of Deglat Nour dates; and (iii) create additional forage perimeters for alfalfa produc- tion. To succeed in the oases rehabilitation, physical investments must be accompanied by the introduction of new planting and intercropping methods and better provision of agricultural inputs. However, these essential measures would have to be followed by land consolidation to allow for better agricul- tural practices. In the new plantations the strenuous working conditions, especially date flower pollination and harvesting, tend to discourage the labor force where other employment opportunities exist. To maintain produc- tion, Government would have to introduce in the long run some mechanization. 2.33 Forage cultivation in the region, although necessary (para 2.20), is highly costly and with the expected decline of the water table, will be even more so in the future. The risk exists that increased forage availability will not improve the quality of the livestock as the general tendency of the farmers is to increase the number of animals rather than improve their quality. It is, therefore, essential that the Government applies measures limiting the number of livestock, as well as measures to improve the quality of rangeland in the south (para. 2.20). - 17 - III. THE PROJECT A. Origin and Objectives 3.01 The Government has requested financing for a project which repre- sents a part of the implementation of the aster Plan for Water Resource Development in Southern Tunisia. The Project was prepared jointly by the National Agriculture Studies Center (CNEA) and the Rural Development Depart- ment of the inistry of Agriculture (Genie Rural - GR) assisted by consul- tants. The consultant services amounted to US$180,000 and were financed under the Project Preparation Facility. The Project preparation was also supervised by the IBRD/FAO Cooperative Programme. 3.02 The main Project objectives are to: (a) increase the present production and exports of dates; and (b) provide employment opportunities for farm labor in the new date palm plantations and improve the living standards of the small holders in the existing oases by developing the potential ground- water resources and improving agricultural practices and services. These objectives are in line with Government efforts to reduce its deficit in the trade balance for food and to improve rural incomes in the poorest regions of Tunisia. The development of groundwater potential would be accomplished through rehabilitation of existing oases (upgrading their irrigation and drainage networks) and drilling of new wells in areas with good production potential. Better agricultural practices would be introduced by reinforced extension services, equipment and research. B. Description of the Project Main Features 3.03 The Project would consist of the following components: (a) Rehabilitation of 7 existing oases on 3,040 ha in the Djerid, Nefzaoua and Gabes areas; (b) Creation of 9 new date palm plantations and date palm/forage perimeters on 2,100 ha in Djerid and Nefzaoua; (c) Creation of a date processing facility; (d) Provision of vehicles, equipment, facilities and personnel for agricultural services, and research in drip irrigation for date palm trees; and (e) Technical assistance to (i) GR for project implementation, and (ii) DRES for preparation of mathematical simulation models. - 18 - Detailed Features 3.04 Rehabilitation of old oases. The oases to be rehabilitated under the Project are Tozeur and El Hamma du Djerid in the Djerid area; Douz, Ras El Ain and Bazma in the Nefzaoua area and Ghannouche and Teboulbou in the coastal Gabes area. The extent of the rehabilitation to be undertaken would vary from oasis to oasis, but would generally consist of ti) improving the water supply where required by sinking additional deep wells; (ii) equipping the new and existing wells with pumps where the artesian flow has diminished or disappeared; (iii) changing the irrigation network from the present irri- gation ditches into cement pipes so as to limit water losses; and (iv) im- proving or creating drainage canals. Details by oasis are shown in Annex 2, Table 2. The physical rehabilitation of the irrigation and drainage systems would be accompanied by extension action aimed at improving the agricultural practices of the farmers (para 5.04). 3.05 New date palms plantations. Nine new plantations would be created out of which four would be in the Djerid (1,287 ha) on Government-owned land and five in Nefzaoua (812 ha) on tribal land. Investments would include: (i) deep well boring; (ii) well equipment; (iii) establishment of wind breakers; (iv) land levelling; (v) building of irrigation and drainage infrastructures; (vi) construction of 31 km of access roads; (vii) construction of tracks in the plantation perimeters; and (viii) agricultural machinery and equipment. A total of 27 deep wells would be sunk and all but two wells 1/ would be equipped with electric pumps which would be connected to existing power lines. Windbreaks would consist of "Tabias" -- asbestos-cement boards or dry palm leaf fences backed by two rows of tamarisks and three rows of acacias or eucalyptus. The plantations would be similar to the successful STIL planta- tions, and trees would be planted at intervals of 9 m. The principal irriga- tion networks would be buried asbestos-cement pipes of diameters varying between 150 and 500 mm. 3.06 In some of the new oases to be created, forage (mainly alfalfa) would be planted where soil and water quality is most suitable. The forage area is expected to cover about 580 ha out of the total 2,100 ha as the expected alfalfa production on this acreage would be adequate to cover the most urgent needs of the existing livestock in the area and would allow for establishment of an emergency stock to ensure survival of the flock during dry years. 3.07 El Ghoula and Draa Sakkouma, two of the new plantations in the Nefzaoua area are on private land. 2/ The owners sunk deep wells, established traditional irrigation and drainage infrastructures and planted date palms three years ago. The artesian flow of the wells is, however, insufficient and the irrigation and drainage infrastructure inadequate. In these two plantations, the Project would finance pumps and improvements in the irri- gation and drainage systems. Both plantations have been included under the 1/ The two wells projected for the Rejim Maatoug plantation in Western Nefzaoua would be artesian and no pumping would be required. 2/ Originally, tribal land subsequently distributed to private families. - 19 - category of new plantations because the cultivation methods would be similar to the newly created plantations under the Project. 3.08 Date processing facility. The Project would provide one date processing facility to be built in the vicinity of Nefta or Tozeur. The facility would be similar to those existing already in Tozeur and Kebili and would have a capacity of 10 t/day for dehydration, 45 t/day for disinsecti- zation and 12 t/day for date processing which would be adequate for processing the additional crop till about year 15 of the Project. Additional processing facilities would have to be provided after that period. The structure will cover 1,500 square meters and will be equipped with relatively simple fumigating, steaming and drying chambers in addition to sorting and packing tables. Storage will also be provided. 3.09 Agricultural services. Two agriculture development agencies OMVs would be created by the Government in the Project area, one in the Governorate of Gafsa with offices in Tozeur, and the second in Gabes. During the imple- mentation period of six years, the Project costs would include the Project related operational expenses of the OMVs. For each OMV, the Project would provide an office building, storage facilities for agricultural inputs and outputs, a repair shop for vehicles and agricultural machinery, vehicles for the staff and for the extension agents and trucks for transport of dates, agricultural inputs and equipment (para 4.05 and Annex 3). The Project would also include supplementary personnel to the GR during Project implementation. 3.10 Research. The Project would provide investments in agricultural research on (i) drip irrigation for date palms; (ii) sprinkler irrigation for forage; and (iii) various systems of drainage. Drip irrigation has so far been experimented on dates only on a very limited scale and if successful could mean important savings in irrigation water. Forage sprinkler irriga- tion with water of relatively high salinity has presented numerous problems and additional research and experimentation is necessary. Drainage, using buried earthware pipes or perforated plastic pipes, rather common elsewhere in the world, has not been experimented with under Southern Tunisian condi- tions. The proposed experiments would involve using different types of pipes and filters, and varying the distance between drains. Investments will include land levelling of the experimental plot (12 ha), experimental irrigation and drainage equipment, agricultural equipment and a small storage and office building. 3.11 Technical assistance. The Project will provide (i) 48 man-months of consultants' services to assist GR in the preparation of tender documents, bid evaluations and Project supervision; and (ii) 12 man-months to DRES for preparation of mathematical simulation models discussed under para. 3.26. 3.12 Although in the same area as the Rural Roads Project (Loan 1601-TUN, 1978) all the investments proposed under this Project in the Nefzaoua are distinct from those financed under the Rural Roads Project. The oases to be rehabilitated under the two projects are generally different and investments proposed complement each other especially regarding communication improvement. - 20 - C. Status of Engineering 3.13 The location of each of the new plantations was based on soil quality, distance from existing wells and springs, likely water resources and manpower availability. The rehabilitation of existing oases is part of an on-going program of the Government. The urgent need for rehabilitation was the main criterion for choosing the ones to be included under the Project. 3.14 Detailed technical specifications with drawings and cost estimates have been prepared for 11 out of 16 sub-projects by GR, assisted by two consultants financed by the Bank's Project Preparation Facility. In the remaining 5 cases, provisional cost estimates have been made, and the detailed technical specifications and final cost estimates are to be completed and submitted to the Bank by the end of 1979. The irrigation and drainage systems as well as the basic infrastructure aspects such as land levelling, access roads, windbreaks, power-line connections and substations have been thoroughly studied and well designed. D. Cost Estimates 3.15 The total Project cost is estimated to be D 29.6 million (US$72.5 million) of which the foreign exchange cost is D 10.3 million (US$25.3 million) or about 35%. Taxes and duties estimated at about D 3.2 million (US$7.8 million) and representing 14% of base costs are included in the cost estimates. 3.16 Base costs are expressed in December 1979 prices. Physical con- tingencies of 15% are added for the irrigation infrastructure and 10% for all equipment, buildings and other investments. Price contingencies for local and foreign exchange costs were calculated at 7% per annum through 1985. Physical contingencies represent 11% of the base costs and price contingencies 18% of the base costs, including physical contingencies. The cost of consultant services, including support services, has been estimated at US$10,000 per man-month. The following table summarizes the cost estimates. (Details are given in Annex 1, Table 1 and Annex 3). - 21 - Project Cost Estimates Foreign Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Exchange --(Dinars' million)-- ----(US$ million)---- % Irrigation Infra- structure /a 8.2 6.6 14.8 20.1 16.1 36.2 45 Buildings 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.5 3.2 46 Vehicles and Agricul- tural Equipment 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 60 Establishment of Date Palm and Forage Perimeters 2.1 - 2.1 5.2 - 5.2 - Other Investments /b 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 50 Rehabilitation Works /c 1.6 - 1.6 3.9 - 3.9 - Operating Costs during Project Implementation 1.8 - 1.8 4.4 - 4.4 - Technical Assistance Id 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.7 84 Base Costs without Contingencies 14.8 7.8 22.6 36.2 19.2 55.4 35 Contingencies Physical 1.3 1.1 2.4 3.2 2.7 5.9 45 Price 3.2 1.4 4.6 7.8 3.4 11.2 30 Subtotal 4.5 2.5 7.0 11.0 6.1 17.1 36 Total Project Cost 19.3 10.3 29.6 47.2 25.3 72.5 35 /a Includes spare parts for agricultural equipment. /b Includes research on drip irrigation, office equipment, tools etc. /c Includes purchase of young palms and work executed by farmers. /d Includes Project Preparation Facility. NOTE: Discrepancies due to rounding. E. Financing 3.17 The proposed Bank loan of US$25 million would be made to the Govern- ment of Tunisia. It would finance 35% of the Project cost excluding taxes and represent about 100% of the foreign exchange cost of the Project. The Govern- ment would finance US$42.6 million equivalent and the oases farmers US$4.9 million equivalent. The Government's contributions would be allocations to the - 22 - budgets of GR, the OMVs and DRES. Assurances to this effect were obtained during negotiations (para. 7.01). The farmers' contribution would be in the purchase of young palm trees and rehabilitation work on their plots. Govern- ment would bear the foreign exchange risk. The term of the proposed loan would be 17 years including 6 years of grace to take into account the long implementation period of the Project and the lack of any significant cash generation during the first several years. The financing plan for the dif- ferent Project components would be as follows: Item Farmers Government IBRD Total --- US$ million ------------ New Plantations Irrigation Infrastructure 17.6 14.0 31.6 Establishment of Plantation - 6.8 - 6.8 Traditional Oases Infrastructure Rehabilitation - 9.4 7.3 16.7 Plantation & Minor Civil Works 4.9 - - 4.9 Buildings - 2.3 1.6 3.9 Vehicles, Agr. Equipment & Other Investment - 1.1 1.4 2.5 Operating Cost during Project Implementation - 5.3 - 5.3 Technical Assistance - 0.1 0.7 0.8 Total 4.9 42.6 25.0 72.5 F. Implementation 3.18 The Project would be implemented over a period of six years. It is estimated that the construction of wells and installation of well equipment would take three years. Sand-barriers and windbreaks would be established during the same period. The replacement of dead trees would continue for another three years. Land levelling of the new plantations would follow the establishment of the wells and should be completed early in year four. Irrigation infrastructure and drainage works will start in year one for some of the rehabilitation subprojects and should be completed for alL the sub- projects by the end of year four. Planting of date palms in the new planta- tions would start in year three and should be completed by the end of year five. Construction of the two office buildings to house the OMVs would be - 23 - spread over the first three years of the Project and construction of storage facilities for the OMVs as well as for the plantations would be spread over the whole project implementation period. The date processing facility would be built and equipped in year six of the Project. Agricultural equipment for the OMVs would be purchased from year three onwards. Technical assistance to GR will be spread over the first two years of the Project. The staffing of the OMVs and their equipping with vehicles would be completed in the first three years. The implementation schedule is shown in Annex 1, Chart 2 and summarized below: Expenditures 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 ------------------(US$ million)------------------ Annual 11.5 15.4 20.7 12.2 5.7 7.0 Cumulative 11.5 26.9 47.6 59.8 65.5 72.5 G. Procurement 3.19 About fifty-six pumpsets with related well equipment and asbestos cement pipes for irrigation valued at about US$4.2 million and about USS7.1 million respectively would be tendered for under international competitive bidding (ICB) procedures according to the Bank's guidelines. The pumpsets and pipes would be grouped in lots sufficiently large to attract international competition. It is expected that three contracts would be let for the pump- sets and three contracts for the pipes. The ICB and Bank review threshold of tender documents for pumpsets and related equipment, and for asbestos cement pipes would be US$250,000 equivalent. Contracts for equipment below the threshold would be purchased under competitive bidding procedures advertised locally, provided that the aggregate cost of all contracts procured in this manner does not exceed US$750,000. 3.20 Deep wells are usually executed for GR by a specialized agency of the Ministry of Agriculture, the "Regie des Sondages Hydrauliques" (RSH). RSH is financially autonomous, has good experience in deep well boring, is well staffed and equipped and its prices are highly competitive. At least two other local private contractors, SIF and "Equipment Hydraulique," are also active in deep well boring in Southern Tunisia. They are well equipped and staffed and compete adequately for contracts with RSH in the public as well as in the private sectors. Under the First Agricultural Credit Project (Loan/ Credit 770/263-TUN, 1971) the Bank financed contracts for drilling of 18 deep wells in the Nefzaoua and Djerid, procurement under ICB procedures resulted in awards to local contractors. Foreign contractors have not shown interest in bidding. In view of the remoteness of the area, the size of the contracts spread over a four-year period, it remains unlikely that they would do so now. The deep well boring contracts totalling US$6.4 million net of price contin- gencies would, therefore, be let under competitive bidding in accordance with local procedures already determined to be satisfactory to the Bank. - 24 - 3.21 Power-line connections of the pumping station estimated to cost US$0.4 million equivalent would be executed by the Government owne!d Tunisian Electricity Company (STEG) under a negotiated contract. Procurement for vehicles and agricultural equipment will take place over several years and would include a wide range of items. Car manufacturers and agricultural equipment suppliers are well represented in the country and are required by the Government to carry an adequate stock of spare parts. Vehicles and agricultural equipment valued at US$1.2 million equivalent would be procured by competitive bidding in accordance with local procedures as bulk procurement under international competitive bidding procedures would not be appropriate. 3.22 There are at least 15 civil works contractors in Tunisia who are experienced in irrigation and drainage network construction. The civil works under the Project would be widely scattered and would include a number of contracts not suitable for grouping and would be undertaken over a period of several years. It is, therefore, unlikely that foreign contractors would be interested in bidding. The civil works component totalling US$20.1 million equivalent would, therefore, be procured through local competitive bidding procedures and it is expected that not less than 10 contractors would partici- pate in the Project civil works. 3.23 Amendments to contracts adding or deleting more than 30% of their respective value would not be made without the prior concurrence of the Bank. General procurement notices would be provided in a timely manner for publica- tion in the UN Development Forum. Assurances that the preceding procurement procedures would be followed were obtained during negotiations (para. 7.01). H. Disbursements 3.24 The proposed Bank loan of US$25 million is expected to be disbursed over six years 1980-85. The loan will be disbursed as follows: - 25 - Category Amount Disbursement Percentage (US$ million) (a) Pumps and related equip- 12.6 55% of the cost of locally ment irrigation equipment, purchased vehicles and equip- vehicles, agriculture and ment and/or 100% of the c.i.f. other equipment cost of imported equipment. (b) Civil works for irrigation 8.8 40% of total expenditures and drainage, land level- ling, road construction and buildings (c) Consultant services 0.4 100% of foreign expenditures (d) Unallocated 3.0 Sub-Total 24.8 (e) Refunding of Project Preparation Advance 0.2 Total 25.0 3.25 Disbursements would be made against receipt of full documentation. Any savings in project cost will be cancelled. Detailed schedules of expen- ditures and disbursements are presented in Annex 1, Tables 1 and 2; the estimated schedule of disbursements is summarized below: Disbursements 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 ----------------- (US$ Million) ----------------- Annual 1.2 6.3 8.7 5.5 1.5 1.8 Cumulative 1.2 7.5 16.2 21.7 23.2 25.0 I. Environmental Effects 3.26 As discussed in Chapter II (para. 2.11), water salinization is expected to increase gradually throughout the areas as a result of water resources development and the lowering of the water table of the CT aquifer. According to the UNESCO/UNDP survey and the various simulation models built, the increase in salinization would, however, remain within acceptable limits during the life of the Project and would not affect agricultural development, mainly date palms. However, the number of wells producing water which does not meet acceptable drinking standards might increase in the future. To allow Government to undertake timely corrective measures if needed, assurances were obtained during negotiations that the Government would continue to closely monitor the variations in water salinity and the depletion of existing and future wells throughout the Project Area, and would: - 26 - (a) Not later than April 1, 1981, forward to the Bank for its review and comment a report summarizing the data recorded on the evolu- tion of aquifers taking into account water levels, water use and water quality of existing and future wells; (b) Not later than October 1, 1983: (i) develop a new Simulation Model for the Djerid Region similar to the Simulation Model devel- oped for the Nefzaoua Region; and (ii) carry out simulations of the evolution of the Djerid and Nefzaoua aquifers, and forward to the Bank for its review and comment the results thereof; (c) Not less than every five years after the date specified in para- graph (b), carry out new simulations and forward to the Bank, for its review and comment, and results thereof; and (d) Take all such remedial action as may be required to limit salinity and to ensure availability of potable water either through water desalinization or by conveyance of fresh water from less saline wells (para. 7.01). IV. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION A. Project Execution and Management 4.01 The Project would be implemented by one department and two agencies of the Ministry of Agriculture, namely Genie Rural (GR), Office de Mise en Valeur du Djerid (OMVD) and Office de Mise en Valeur de Gabes (OMVG). The two offices are to be created. The mathematical simulations of the aquifer development required under the Project would be prepared by DRES. The coor- dination and control of the Project implementation would be provided by the Ministry of Agriculture's Department of Planning. 4.02 GR, a Department of the Ministry of Agriculture in charge of water resources and rural development, would be responsible for the hydraulic and civil works components of the Project. GR is well staffed with a sufficient number of qualified engineers and has extensive experience in water resources development in Tunisia. Its latest accomplishment in the Project area was the rehabilitation of the large Kebili-Peninsula oasis, which from a technical point of view was excellent. 4.03 GR was responsible for the preparation of the detailed technical designs and cost estimates of the sub-projects and would be responsible for preparation of tender documents for purchase of equipment and civil works contracts. GR would supervise the boring of wells, installation of equipment, land levelling, construction of irrigation and drainage networks, installation of windbreaks by the local governmental forest authorities, and the construc- tion of all buildings and the date processing facility. GR would also be responsible for establishing and operating the research plot referred to in para. 3.10. Once these works are finished in a sub-project, GR would transfer the responsibility over to one of the OMVs. GR would also be responsible for - 27 - hiring the consultants discussed in para 3.11. Qualifications, experience and terms and conditions of employment of the consultants should be satisfactory to the Bank and assurances to this effect were obtained during negotiations (para. 7.01). 4.04 OMVs would be semi-independent agencies of the Ministry of Agricul- ture with a status similar to that of the other irrigation offices presently in existence,1/ with financial autonomy and legal personality. The Bank has had satisfactory working relations with the OMVVM, which is the executing agency for the Medjerda Irrigation Rehabilitation and the agricultural part of the Sidi Salem Multipurpose Project (Loan 1431-TUN). The establishment of OMVG would, in practice, be a transformation of the local branch of OMVVM into an independent agency. 4.05 The OMVs would be responsible for the purchase of agricultural equipment, planting of date palm offshoots and seeding of forage perimeters. They would be in charge of the management and maintenance of the new planta- tions. In the rehabilitated oases, including El Ghoula and Draa Sakkouma (para 3.07), their main responsibility would be extension work aimed at improving the date, vegetable and forage production. They will also be responsible for maintenance and servicing of the pumping stations, and in places where no AIC (see para 2.16) exists, for the maintenance of the irri- gation infrastructure. 4.06 The Project staff in each OMV would comprise, beside the adminis- trative personnel (accountant, assistant accountant, administrative and personnel officer, etc.), six agricultural engineers and all the personnel needed for the establishment and operation of the new plantations, and one agronomist who would supervise and direct extension services in the traditional oases. At least 20 extension agents would be hired in each of the OMVs to advise the farmers in the traditional oases. A typical new plantation of 100 ha with two pumped wells would employ about 50 permanent workers, two agricul- tural agents, three pump attendants with assistants and two tractor drivers. The OMVs would also employ personnel needed for maintenance of the pumping stations, irrigation equipment and network, and agricultural machinery and equipment. 4.07 Establishment of the two OMVs was decided by the Government in Spring 1979, the Governmental decision now has to be approved by the Parlia- ment and an organizational decree has to be issued. Issuance of this decree would be a condition of effectiveness of the loan (para. 7.02) The organiza- tion of the two Project OMVs would be similar to one of the five existing OMVs. 1/ A tentative organization chart and staffing plan is shown in Annex 1, Chart 1. 1/ OMVVM - Office de Mise en Valeur de la Vallee de la Medjerda OMVL - Office de Mise en Valeur de Lakkmes OPPIJ - Office des Perimetres Publics Irrigues de Jendouba OMIVAN - Office de Mise en Valeur du Nebhana OTC - Office de la Tunisie Centrale - 28 - 4.08 The OMVs would manage the new date palm plantations and date palm/ forage perimeters till they attain satisfactory production returns. The Government would then decide whether (i) the management of the plantations on State lands should be transferred to the State Land Management Agency (OTD); and (ii) some of the plantations on tribal lands should be subdivided into plots and distributed to farmers or whether they should all continue to be managed by the OMVs. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that the Project would be executed and managed as discussed in paras 4.01-4.07. B. Cost Recovery 4.09 For the 3,040 ha of privately owned farms and the 2,100 ha of state- owned plantations, rent and cost recovery indices were computed by taking the net present values discounted at 10% over a 50-year period. The rent indices calculated in Appendix C5, is the surplus of incremental farm income resulting from the Project, above that required to assure an adequate incentive for farmers' participation in the Project. For the state-owned plantations the rent recovery index is 100 as these plantations would be run by the two OMVs on a commercial basis and all investment and operating costs would be recovered by the revenues accruing to the Government. In the existing oases, cost recovery would be difficult to achieve. The water in the oases originally came from springs and was plentiful and free. When new deep wells outside the oases were sunk by Government for new developments, the water supply in the springs gradually began to diminish and in some cases disappeared completely. To save the oases, the Government sunk additional wells in the oases them- selves, and channeled the newly available water into the existing irrigation infrastructure. The farmers were not required to contribute to the cost of the new wells. The wells in the oases were, in most instances, artesian and no pumping was necessary. With the extension of some oases and the diminish- ing artesian flow, pumping became necessary, in most cases. Again, the Government did not make the farmers (generally small-holders) contribute towards the investment cost in pumps, but did charge the farmers a token contribution towards the operating costs. The amount charged for a cubic meter is 4 millimes (about 1 c) and is presently being increased to 6 millimes; the actual cost of pumping is about 20 millimes. Due to the low water charges levied by the Government to compensate the farmers for the decrease in the water supply in the springs resulting from the Government's decision to sink new wells outside the oases, the rent recovery index is close to 0. As indicated in para. 6.06, with the Project the revenues of the farmers would increase and they would be able to gradually increase their contribution towards water charges. Assurances were obtained during negotiations (para. 7.01) that the Government would: (a) carry out a study for the establishment of a cost recovery system for irrigation in the Project Area taking into account the Govern- ment's Code des Eaux as well as, inter alia the following factors: (i) the costs (in real terms) incurred by the Government for con- structing, operating and maintaining the irrigation system in the Project Area; (ii) the impact of the level and structure of water charges on the farmers' incentives to utilize available water resources; (iii) the farmers' relative income in relation to the - 29 - national per capita income; (iv) the scope for possible differen- tiation in the water charges as applied to farmers with different income levels and farm sizes; and (v) the appropriate phasing of increases in water charges in relation to increased agricultural production under the Project; (b) on the basis of the results of such study and not later than June 30, 1981, submit to the Bank for its review and comment a plan to progressively increase water charges to be paid by farmers; and (c) thereafter implement the plan agreed upon between the Government and the Bank, and periodically review the adequacy of the level of water charges in consultation with the Bank. The rent and cost recovery indices for the whole Project are 58 and 48 respec- tively. C. Accounts and Audits 4.10 Each of the OMV's will keep independent project accounts and monitor the project implementation. These accounts will be centralized by the Department of Planning of the Ministry of Agriculture. The accounts of the OMV's will be controlled by a financial controller of the Ministry of Finance and also by a specialized division of the Ministry of Agriculture (Sous direction des Organismes Sous Tutelle) overseeing all the semi-independent agencies of the Ministry. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that the audited project accounts of each OMV as well as the consolidated accounts would be sent to the Bank within six months of the end of each fiscal year (para. 7.01). V. PROJECT PRODUCTION AND MARKETING A. Production and Yields 5.01 Investments under the Project are expected to generate the following incremental production at full development: Quantity (tons) Dates: Deglat Nour 20,000 Allig 1,400 Alfalfa Hay 3,200 Barley Grain 600 Vegetables 31,200 The phasing of the incremental production generated under the Project is shown in Annex 2, Table 1. - 30 - 5.02 New plantations. The Deglat Nour would be the only variety of date palm cultivated. Trees would be planted at 9 by 9 m intervals with 123 trees per hectare. Production would start five years after planting with an average yield of 0.5 t/ha increasing to 10 t/ha (80 kg/tree) at full development, which would be fifteen years after planting. Date production during the first four years would be of an inferior quality and would be consumed locally. Thereafter, production would be exported at the rate of about 50% of the total production of 15,000 tons at full development. 5.03 Alfalfa for hay followed by barley for grain in a four-year crop- ping pattern would be grown on 580 ha. The average yields of fresh alfalfa and barley grain are expected to reach 60 t/ha and 3 t/ha respectively (Annex 3). This production is expected to be consumed in the I'roject area itself where deficits of animal feed are presently substantial. 5.04 Rehabilitation of oases. The average density of date palms in existing oases is over 200 trees/ha of which about 30% are Deglat Nour, 30% Allig and 40% other common varieties. In addition, there are about 20 fruit trees/ha and annual crops. Rehabilitation would entail: (i) reducing the date palm density to about 155 trees/ha and replacing some of the common date palm varieties with Deglat Nours so that the composition would be about 55% Deglat Nour, 30% Allig and 15% common varieties; (ii) removing most of the fruit trees; and (iii) doubling the annual crops. As a result of the rehabilitation, the existing Deglat Nour, Allig and common variety date palms would increase their yields from 20 to 32 kg/tree (60%), 30 to 50 kg/tree (67%) and 47 to 65 kg/tree (38%) respectively at full development. The average yields of new Deglat Nour offshoots would only reach 45 kg/tree at full development as compared to 80 kg/tree in the new oasis, primarily due to the greater density of trees and intercropping. Incremental produc- tion of Deglat Nour dates is expected to reach about 4,400 tons at full development. It is assumed that without the Project, the average yields of existing date palms would decrease by 1% per year due to inadequate water supply and proper drainage. 5.05 Projections of incremental vegetable production resulting from the Project in the rehabilitated coastal oases are subject to change since there are various possible cropping patterns a farmer may implement. Projections of total incremental production are based on a typical farm model (Annex 3). Date palm production in these oases is negligible due to the climatic condi- tions. At present, all vegetables are grown in open fields and total produc- tion is estimated to be about 12,000 t. After the rehabilitation, which would result in increased yields due to adequate water supply and good drainage, better use of inputs and improved cropping patterns, incrementaL production of vegetables in open fields would reach almost 27,800 t at full development. Production of vegetables grown under plastic tunnels, expected to be installed by some farmers would reach 3,400 t. Exports 5.06 During the last five years, Tunisian date exports (mainly Deglat Nours) averaged about 5,500 t per year. At present, France absorbs about 65% of the exports, Italy about 20% and the remaining 15% is imported by other European countries (Annex 4). The main export season is in late fall - 31 - as demand peaks in Europe around Christmas. As prices drop significantly after this period, dates of prime quality harvested late in the year are often stored in refrigerated facilities until the next season. 5.07 Quantities of dates imported from Tunisia constitute only a small fraction of total European date imports. In 1977, a total of about 41,000 t were imported of which about 5,400 t or 13% came from Tunisia. In the same period, French imports of dates amounted to about 20,000 t of which about 20% were from Tunisia. 1/ Iraq has been the principal supplier of dates to Europe, but the Deglat Nour is more highly valued than the Iraqi date varie- ties. As a result, there is a great demand for the Deglat Nour variety in European markets and Tunisia is able to sell all its production at a high price without any great difficulty. Discussions with GID confirm that the demand for Deglat Nours from foreign markets has been far greater than Tunisia's ability to supply. 5.08 The Project generated date production of the Deglat Nour variety would be essentially for export, however, only the top qualities are exported so that only 50% of the total production would be available for export. No problems are foreseen in marketing the additional exports, which would amount to 10,000 t in the year 2000. It is expected that about 50% of the exports would be in the form of processed dates. There is still a great demand for unprocessed dates from France, as several French firms prefer to process and repack the dates in their own facilities. Domestic Market Demand 5.09 Total consumption of dates in Tunisia has remained stable over the past decade varying between 35,000 to 45,000 t per year. In 1978, the per capita consumption was about 7.0 kg and in the urban areas consumption of the Deglat Nour variety alone was about 4.0 kg per capita. Most of the ordinary varieties, representing about 60% of total production, was consumed in the oases and by the Saharan population for whom dates are still the staple food. In the urban areas, the ordinary varieties no longer meet the market require- ments. The Deglat Nour has become the most sought after variety, but because of the high export demand, the local markets are undersupplied. With the population gtowth in urban consumption centers, the domestic demand for the Deglat Nour is expected to continue increasing. Therefore, no problems are foreseen in marketing the additional 10,000 t of Deglat Nour generated by the Project in the domestic market. The incremental Allig date production would be largely consumed in the Project area and neighboring towns. 5.10 The vegetable production in the coastal oases would be primarily destined for the Gabes market. With the expansion of industrial development and tourism, the demand for vegetables is expected to continue increasing. The alfalfa hay and barley grain produced under the Project would be fed to the livestock in the Project area. It is estimated that there are about 150,000 sheep and goats in the Djerid and Nefzaoua areas. During the weaning period alone (two months), it is estimated that the offspring would require a minimum of 5,000 t of additional high quality forage. At present, there is an acute shortage of forage in these areas and, therefore, the Project 1/ From FAO Trade Yearbook, 1977. - 32 - production of 3,200 t of alfalfa hay and 600 t of barley at full development would be essential to maintain the livestock production and to provide for a reserve stock during drought years (paras. 2.19-2.20). Marketing 5.11 Prior to 1964, dates were exported by Tunisian merchants who sold their produce to firms in Marseille. These firms processed and repacked the dates in their own facilities and then often re-exported them. In order to regulate the Tunisian production and increase exports, the Government, in 1964, granted STIL a monopoly for the marketing and export of dates. In 1972, the STIL monopoly was abolished but date exports remained regulated. At present, a firm must fulfill several conditions to be authorized to export dates. They include: (i) exp2rts of at least 300 t; (ii) processing and storing facilities of at least 400 m ; and (iii) 40% of the exports must be processed dates. Due to these strict conditions, there are few export firms; STIL remains the most important. The existing firms have adequate capacity to handle the incremental date exports that would be generated by the Project. 5.12 The new OMVs to be created (OMVD and OMVG) would be responsible for the marketing and processing of dates and the marketing of forage produced in the new plantations. In the oases to be rehabilitated, the existing system of marketing will prevail (para 2.29). In the coastal oases, the farmers would sell their vegetable production through their service cooperative directly to the wholesalers and retailers in the Gabes market. The present marketing system in Gabes is efficient and capable of managing the increased vegetable production, which would result from the Project. B. Prices 5.13 The Government fixes date prices each season for the premium and commercial quality Deglat Nour at two levels: a minimum price at the farm gate and a maximum price at the retail outlet. Prices for the best quality of Deglat Nour on branches (currently over 400 millimes/kg) and all other date varieties are not controlled. The following table shows the evolution of the Deglat prices controlled by the Government. Official Farm Gate and Retail Date Prices by Grade 1974/75-1978/79 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 Minimum Farmgate price ---------------(millimes/kg)--------------- Deglat Extra Premium 250 280 320 340 340 - Commercial 200 230 250 270 270 - Dry a/ 100 - - - - - Unsorted a/ 50 - - - - Allig/Common Varieties a/ 70 - - - - Maximum Retail Price Deglat - Premium 380 400 420 440 440 - Commercial 380 320 340 360 360 a/ Not controlled since 1975/76. - 33 - 5.14 Export prices are fixed during the export season biweekly by GID according to the qualities and the general market situation. The average f.o.b Tunis price increased from 438 millimes/kg in 1974/75 to 501 millimes/kg in 1977/78, representing an increase of about 5% p.a. In the last two years, the f.o.b Tunis price of the first quality was 680 millimes/kg leaving the exporter-producer (ex. STIL), after deduction of all expenses for processing, packing, transport and harbor charges, a farm gate price of 580 millimes/kg. The f.o.b price of lesser qualities is substantially lower; it was 480 millimes/kg for packed dates and 430 millimes/kg for unprocessed dat^s with corresponding farmgate prices of about 400 and 360 millimes/kg respectively. With the persisting high demand from the export market as well as the domes- tic market, and only a slow increase in production, prices are expected to increase in the future. 5.15 The average export price used for valuing the Deglat Nour dates for the economic analysis is D 446/t based on the 1978/79 season prices and assuming that 30% of total exports would be of the first quality priced at D 595/t, 20% of the second quality at D 410/t and 50% unprocessed at D 370/t. Prices used are the f.o.b. Tunis price net of handling, transport and proces- sing costs. For the financial analysis, the average price used for valuing the Deglat Nour dates is D 352/t assuming that half the production is exported and the other half is sold in the local market at D 270/t. For both the economic and financial analysis, a constant price is used over the life of the Project. Dates of the Allig and common variety have been valued at the farm- gate price of D 120/t and D 70/t respectively. Vegetables have also been valued at farmgate prices (Annex 3). 5.16 The economic alternative to local production of barley would be to import. The c.i.f. Tunis price plus transport and handling costs is estimated at D 58/t and the farmgate price in the south at D 47/t. At present, the National Livestock and Range Agency (OEP) sells alfalfa hay produced at the Chenchou perimeter near Gabes to the consumers at a subsidized price of D 70/t while the free market price is about D 140/t. There is a severe shortage of forage in Tunisia as the north does not produce adequate forage for its own needs and there is no ready international market. There is no other alterna- tive to meet the forage needs of the area than to produce as much as possible of the local requirements in the area. Previously, small quantities of granulated alfalfa were imported at a c.i.f. Tunis price of D 80/t (1977 price). Including transport costs, handling charges and all other expenses, this would be close to the D 140/t price prevailing in the Project area. Alfalfa hay produced in the date palm/forage perimeters is expected to be sold at about the market price to encourage production and ensure the financial viability of the Project. Assurances to this effect were obtained during negotiations (para. 7.01). 5.17 Most agricultural inputs are subsidized by the Government in Tunisia either by fixing prices at a low level or by making subsidies available to farmers for purchase of agricultural equipment and other inputs. Farmgate prices for fertilizers are sometimes as much as 35% below border prices adjusted for transport and handling. A detailed list of producer prices and adjusted border prices is given in Annex 3. - 34 - VI. PROJECT BENEFITS AND BENEFICIARIES A. Project Benefits 6.01 The Project represents the only possible development of the semi- desertic southern and southeastern part of Tunisia. The main benefits of the Project would arise from the incremental production of dates, forage and vegetables (see para.5.01). At full development the Project would increase by almost 50% the present date production of the country. The Deglat Nour date variety destined for both the export and urban domestic markets would result in foreign exchange earnings of about D 9.0 million/ year (US$22.0 million) in constant 1978 prices at full development. Produc- tion increases in other date varieties and vegetables would mainly benefit consumers in the Project areas. The forage production wculd contribute towards maintaining and improving the quality of the existing livestock in the Project areas (about 150,000 sheep and goats) and in drought years would provide a reserve stock (paras 2.19 and 2.20). 6.02 One of the most important justification of the Project is its social impact. The incidence of absolute poverty appears to be high in the south of Tunisia and particularly around the Project area. The rehabilitation compo- nent of the Project would directly benefit some 5,100 farmers or 30,600 people in the rural target population. As much of Tunisia's economic activity is concentrated along the coast, rural-urban migration, especially towards the coast, has been rapidly increasing over the past few years. Without the Project, the situation in the existing oases would continue to deteriorate, resulting in increased poverty of small farmers and the acceleration of migration of the local population to the urban areas where there is already widespread unemployment. The new date palm plantations and date palm/forage perimeters would offer improved income opportunities to about 1,100 permanent workers, many of whom are at present underemployed or unemployed. In addition, about 80,000 man-days a year for seasonal work would be created. In the date processing center to be financed under the Project, 34,000 man-days for seasonal work are expected to be provided each year. Increased regional employment in the Project areas, as a result of spread and multiplier effects in the regional economy such as secondary service and tradesmen jobs, have not been analyzed. The anticipated impact of the Project on employment creation and income is summarized below: - 35 - Annual Net Income/a Number of Without lb With lb Average Farmers/ Present Project Project Farm Size Workers ---(D/year)----------- Farmers Oases in Djerid/ Nefzaoua 0.5 ha 4,000 320 250 600 Oases in Gabes 1.0 ha 1,100 350 240 1,160 Incremental Workers Permanent - 1,100 180 180 360 Seasonal (man-days) - 114,000 - - 100 /a The absolute poverty line in rural areas in Tunisia is estimated to be about D 48/year (US$118.0). The average family size is 6 members. /b At full development of Project. 6.03 The Project also recognizes the important role women can play in agricultural production by creating employment opportunities for them. Women already do and will continue to play a major role in agriculture in the coastal oases. They are also employed as seasonal workers during the date collecting and sorting season and the majority of the work force in the date processing and packaging centers are women. It is expected that at least 35% of the seasonal labor hired for the Project would be women. 6.04 The Project would further result in non-quantifiable benefits such as: (a) institution building, with the creation of two agricultural development offices, OMVs, which would result in improvements in extension services, provision of inputs etc.; (b) long-term gains from research on drip and sprinkler irrigation and various systems of drainage; and (c) gains from technical assistance to the Genie Rural by consul- tant services financed under the Project. B. Financial Analysis 6.05 Results of financial cost-benefit analyses for typical investment models of each of the project components are summarized below: - 36 - Financial ----------Sensitivity Analysis---------- Rate of Investment Operating Return Benefits Costs Costs +10% -10% +10% -10% +10% -Io New Date Palm Plantations 11 12 10 10 11 10 11 New Date Palm/Forage Perimeters 10 11 8 9 10 9 10 Rehabilitation of Existing Oases 16 17 14 15 17 15 16 The calculations are based on 1978 market prices for both inputs and outputs (Annex 3). These low rates of return are attributable mainly to the long maturing period of the palm trees and the large investment costs during the first few years for the irrigation and drainage networks. In spite of these low rates of return, these components are justified for the reasons outlined in paras. 6.01-6.04. Each permanent worker is expected to earn about D 360/year for 250 days of work a year and each seasonal worker about D 100 for 65 days of work during the year. 6.06 Returns to farmers in the oases to be rehabilitated were calculated based on representative farm models (Annex 3). It is expected that as a result of the rehabilitation, a typical farmer owning 0.5 ha in the continental oases could earn a net income of D 640/year at full development. D)educting a water charge based on 6 millimes/m3 his net income would still be about D 600/year. At present, the average income is estimated to be about D 320/ year. In the coastal oases to be rehabilitated, where the average farm size is 1 ha and the principal returns are from vegetable and forage production, an average farmer is expected to earn D 1,160/year at full development. This represents a substantial improvement from his present income, which on the average amounts to only D 350/year (para. 6.02). The calculations of returns to farmers indicate that they will be able to gradually increase their contri- butions towards water charges (see para. 4.09). C. Economic Analysis 6.07 The estimated economic rate of return (discounted over 50 years) is 13%. The economic evaluation of all project components is sumtmarized below: Economic Rate Component of Return New Date Palm Plantations 13 New Date Palm/Forage Perimeters 12 Rehabilitation of Existing Oases 19 Total Project 13 - 37 - Since the rates of return are above the estimated opportunity cost of capital in TuniBia (10%), they are satisfactory for all components. The higher eco- nomic rate of return for rehabilitation of new plantations is due to sunk costs and, therefore, the need for relatively fewer new investments. The Project economic cash flow with details of economic costs and benefits is given in Annex 3. 6.08 Assumptions used for the economic analysis are the following: (a) Foreign Exchange: The exchange rate of the Dinar is floating. For the economic analysis the rate prevailing at the end of June 1979 (US$1 = D 0.408/D 1.00 = US$2.45) has been chosen as an approximation of the official exchange rate. (b) Benefits, Investments and Operating Costs. All costs including physical contingencies are expressed in 1978 constant prices adjusted to exclude taxes and subsidies. Inputs and outputs which are tradable on world markets have been valued at border prices adjusted for handling and transport costs within Tunisia. Other inputs and outputs have been valued at the 1978 farmgate price and adjusted for taxes and subsidies where applicable. (c) Labor Pricing: In the past, there has been considerable emigra- tion from the Djerid and Nefzaoua areas due to the lack of permanent employment opportunities. The permanent labor for the new date palm plantations and the date palm/forage perimeters would be drawn from the Project area and the surrounding rural areas where there is still some unemployment and a considerable amount of seasonal unemployment. In estimating the marginal value of labor to the economy for this Project, a shadow wage rate of 50% of the minimum agricultural wage rate for permanent labor has been applied. Family labor in the oases to be rehabilitated has also been costed at 50% of the minimum wage rate, because some seasonal employment opportunities for family labor are available. Sensitivity Analysis and Risk 6.09 Cost overruns and lower than expected yields are the most likely constraints to achieving the economic rates of return, therefore, the sen- sitivity of the rates of return were tested for these variables. Their switching values are summarized below: - 38 - Economic Rate of Return Sensitivity Analysis Switching Values at 107c/ Investment Operating Total Yields Costs Costs Cost New Date Palm Plantations -26 71 70 35 New Date Palm/Forage Perimeters -15 31 38 17 Rehabilitation of Old Oases -45 150 181 82 Total Project -23 60 59 30 /a Percentage change beyond which the economic rate of return would be below 10%. Results in general indicate little sensitivity to shortfalls in benefits or increases in costs for the new date palm plantation and the rehabilitation components. On the other hand, the rate of return of the new date palm/forage perimeter is fairly sensitive to a decrease in benefits and total costs. 6.10 The sensitivity of the Project was also tested for a shadow exchange rate 20% above the official exchange rate (US$1 = D 0.490/D 1.00 = US$2.04). The shadow exchange rate used reflects existing protection levels and also takes account of the float. Using this exchange rate, the economic rate of return of the Project increases to about 14% with switching values of yields, investment costs, operating costs and total costs being -28%, 80%, 76% and 39% respectively. 6.11 As discussed in paras. 2.11 and 3.25, water salinization is expected to increase gradually throughout the Project areas as a result of water resource development. This would not affect agricultural development, but potable water for the local population in certain locations might not meet acceptable drinking standards. The sensitivity of the Project was therefore tested for an increase in investment and operating costs resulting from the inclusion of two water desalinization plants of about 2,000 m3/day capacity each, one in the Nefzaoua and the other in the Djerid. The rate of return of the Project was unchanged. VII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS 7.01 During negotiations assurances were obtained that: (a) The Government would channel budgetary funds and the Bank Loan funds to GR and the OMVs as described in para. 3.17; (b) GR and the OMVs would procure all civil works and equipment in accordance with the stipulations of paras. 3.19-3.22; - 39 - (c) Government would continue to closely monitor the evolution of the aquifer and periodically prepare and submit to the Bank mathematical simulations of the aquifer development (para. 3.26); (d) GR would hire consultants to assist the preparation of bid evalua- tions, tender documents and project supervision; whose qualifica- tions, experience and terms and conditions of employment would be satisfactory to the Bank (para. 4.03); (e) GR and the OMVs would execute and manage the Project as described in paras. 4.01 - 4.08; (f) The Government would carry out a study for the establishment of a cost recovery system for irrigation in the Project area and there- after implement the system (para. 4.09); (g) Audited project accounts of each OMV as well as the consolidated accounts would be sent to the Bank within six months of the end of each fiscal year (para. 4.10); and (h) The price of alfalfa hay produced in the date palm/forage perimeters would take into account the prevailing market prices and would be periodically reviewed (para. 5.16). 7.02 Effectiveness of the Loan will be conditional on the approval by Parliament of the establishment of the two OMVs and the issuance of an organi- zational decree (para. 4.07). 7.03 Recommendation. With the above assurances and agreements, the proposed Project is suitable for a Bank Loan of US$25 million to the Tunisian Government for a term of 17 years including 6 years of grace. December 19, 1979 TUNTSIA STA" APPRAISAL. REPORT OF THE SOUTHERN IRRIGATION PROJECT Prolate Costs and SchOedule of Etpsndieesn/ Cotat da Peojet ci Plan des D5peaces 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Total Fore-ig Fo. Forei8a F.reis Foreiga Foreign Forg Local Eachonge Total Loc.l Eachango Total Local Eathtnge Total Local ax,hange Total Lot-l Exchsage To-al Lotal Bochooge Tota- Lotal Exthsage Totol -------------------Millions)…-------------------------…---------------------------------…(D Milli-)…---------__-_-__ -___________ -_-______________-_-_________-____ Ir-iganioc and leolnaga Inecatioc at Lratoaga Iefeaairoolore/o 2.03 1.28 3.31 2.94 2.03 4.l7 2.46 Z.46 4.92 1.40 0.75 2.15 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.21 0.10 0.31 8.26 6.63 14.89 Iteas troctare /8 B.ildings 0.06 0.04 0.10 0.05 0.04 0.09 0.14 0.10 0.24 0.12 0.10 0.22 0.14 0.10 D.24 0.21 0.16 0.37 0.72 0.54 1.26 Bgtinnis Vahitles & Age. Eqoipa.nt 0.05 0.03 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.12 0.24 0.24 0.48 VThicolne . Eqtip. ageicoe- Eatablisne- of Dain Pain Fl-otations -d PFolsiee- and Forage Peei=eeers 0.03 - 0.03 0.03 - 0.03 0.57 - 0.57 0.60 - 0.60 0.60 - 0.60 0.26 - 0.26 2.09 - 2.09 ae p6cia8er-s foorragera Ohne 1-ventianti /b 0.01 _ 0.01 0.06 0.04 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 - 0.01 - - - 0.03 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.26 Inves-tie enot divers /b Rehabilitoetio Woeks /c 0.27 . 0.27 0.27 - 0.27 0.27 - 0.27 0.0237 0.27 0.02 - (1.27 0.27 - 0.20 I.02 - 1.61 Trava-x de eso9-garde /4 Capitalined Operatiog Cases 0.12 - 0.12 0.22 - 0.22 0.30 - 0.30 0.35 - 0.35 0.37 0.07 0.39 - 0.39 1.75 - 1.75 Ch-s da ee _apieolteia- Tachoical Assistance 0.02 0.09 0.11 0.02 2.01 0.11 _ _ - - - 0.04 0.0018 A.2 Os.aneotte Lethaique Base Costs 2.53 1.44 4.03 2.03 2.23 5.06 3.78 2.61 6.39 2.77 (0.89 3.66 1.44 0.15 1.59 1.43 0.41 1.84 14.84 7.73 22.37 Colts Cotinge...s Al.5-Al Fhysical 0.30 0.20 0.50 0.32 0.30 0.62 0.42 0.35 0.77 0.17 0.10 0.27 0.02 0.08 0.10 0.09 0.04 0.13 1.32 1.07 2.39 I s.ne de- qoantites PFite 0.30 0.06 0.16 0 34 7.27 0 63 0 86 0.53 1.29 0,78 0.27 1.05 0.53 0.0(0 0.81 0.68 0.20 21.06 30.9 1.41 4.60 h Hsse de- peix Sbtiotal 0.40 0.26 0.66 0.06 0.57 1.23 1.18 0.88 2.06 0,95 0.37 1.32 0.55 0.16 0.71 0.77 0.24 3.335 4.51 2.40 6.99 soos eoctl ProJect Pe-peraton Facillity - 0.07 0.07 -- .? 0.00 Msnsi-e dr prep-oion den Total Proj-tt Cone 2.99 127 3.49 2.80 6.29 4.96 49 0.45 3.72 2.26 4.90 1.99 0231 2.30 2.20 7.60 2.05 19.35 10.28 29.43 Cole toed do Prolee /a Iaolndes spare p-rts far igr1aolt-re qnip-nt. /033Y coY pr,i den pi&.. da rech-oge poor eqoip=cna .t gricoloj / - Ineloden research on drip iriggation, offlar eqoipenot, eqaip .n.t foe praaesaig .a.t-c, tols., etc. /b Y co.epris Is rochercha cor l'ireigation par gouttcagoa ett, -aturial de -b-reca, ataerinl poor leoen_tre sd tens-of-atito, ootiin, nt. /c IncRadon parp hasa ot yqung pAle t-res ad in-r faveesssaais and aivil ae-ks enco-tnd by fa-nY /c T cosprie 7aahet da re-ets, peeite iavostlsstLnine it tra t ox - 41 - ANNEX 1 Table 2 TUNISIA SOUTHERN IRRIGATION PROJECT Schedule of Disbursements Barame de Deboursements Cumulative Disbursement IBRD Fiscal Year at End of Quarter and Quarter (US$ Million) FY80 March 31, 1980 - June 30, 1980 0.2 FY81 September 30, 1980 0.2 December 31, 1980 1.2 March 31, 1981 2.6 June 30, 1981 4.5 FY82 September 30, 1981 5.9 December 31, 1981 7.5 March 31, 1982 9.3 June 30, 1982 11.4 FY83 September 30, 1982 13.9 December 31, 1982 16.2 March 31, 1983 18.2 June 30, 1983 19.9 FY84 September 30, 1983 20.9 December 31, 1983 21.7 March 31, 1984 22.3 June 30, 1984 22.8 FY85 September 30, 1984 23.0 December 31, 1984 23.2 March 31, 1985 23.4 June 30, 1985 23.7 FY86 September 30, 1985 24.4 December 31, 1985 25.0 TUNISIA SOUTHERN IRRIGATION PROJECT OMV Organization Chart INTERNAL CONTROL DIRECTOR COORDINATION I MONITORING ADMINISTRATION OPERATIONS & EXTENSION MARKETING RESEARCH | t & FINANCE MAINTENANCE SERVICES - Administration - Op. New Plantations Oasis 1 - Procurement Drip Irrigation - Personnel - Op. Oases Oasis 2 - Marketing Other Research - Budget - Maint. Wells & Stations Oasis 3 - Processing Accounts - Maint. Irrigation N.W. Demonstration Plots - Statistics - Maint. Vehicles & Equipment L Repair Shop o ~ TUNIS IA SOUTHERN IRRIGATION PROJECT Implementation Schedule 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 well Construction and Equipment _ Forage et eq.ipement des puits Land Preparation and Windbreaks _ ///i/U/l //II////(II//( /7//I/l/A/ Brise-vent, Nivellement du terrain Irrigation & Drainage Infrastructure Infrastructure d'irrigation et de drainage Date Palm Planting _//,/'II//X/// Plantations des palmiers it Building Construction _ _ _ _ _ . . _ Construction des bhtiments Purchase of Agricultural Equipment Achat de l'equipement agricole Construction of Processing Plant Construction de l'unite de conditionnement Equipment for Agricultural Research _ _ - Equipement pour la station de recherche OMV Operational Expenses . . .................... .................. . . ......... ............ .. OMV - D epe nses du fonctionnement Genie Rural Project Expenses . ......Gnie Rurale - Depenses de projet Technical Assistance .......... Assistance technique Planning and Preparation, Preparation of Bidding Documents _ _ _ _ Construction or implementation IIIII/I/III///II/ Replacements (palms, windbreaks) ......... Salaries, Technical assistance July 1979 TUNISIA STAFF APPRAISA. REPORT OF TOE SIOThERN RR81GATION PROJECT I-cre -ental Produ-tion Generated Under te Fenduntion Additin.nelle ouS. Le Pen-et Years/Annee- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 A Pnrtir _ A_ari 21 1. DATES - DEGLAT ONOR 1 1. DATTES - DEGLAT NOUR0 / Ne. lace Palm Pl_ntati_on (1,521 hc) - - - - 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 3.0 5.3 8.3 9.7 11.1 12.4 13.8 14.7 15.2 No-e1lts. Pllseta.Lins dt PAtniets DIstiera Rohabilittiece of Data P.C. Flautftisne (1,952 ha)/2 uSe 0.1 °-'i 0~ 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 jXj 7., 2_7 3.1 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.2 4. 3 4.3 4.4 4.4 aiit92es P tations /2 Sub-ntul - 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.8 6.1 8.8 12.1 13.8 13.3 16.7 18.1 19.1 19.6 Gnus Tntol 11. DATES - ALL1G/3 - 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 II. DATTES - ALLIG/3 - COMMOS VARTETIEE (0.6) (1.2) (1.7) (2.3) (3.0) (3.9) (3.8) (3.7) (3.7) (3.7) (3.7) (3.7) (3.7) (3.7) (3.7) (3.7) (3.7) (3.7) (3.7) (3.7) (3.7) 'A- RAIETES £ N Ill. ALFAL 2 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 fIl. LUZERNE IV. EARIEY - - 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.6 0,6 0.6 0.6 0.6 IV, ORG0 V. VEGETABLES/2 V. LEGUt ES/2 VRehbllltatton ot C_Rst-l oorst - h (1,088 ha) - Ietoblee; in Greenhouses - - 0.9 1.5 2.2 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Legosoes coa eare(c F- ield Crops _ - 9.2 14.0 19.4 25.2 286, 27.4 7.0 20.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27. 8 27 . 7 27.8 27.8 27.8 - Cullures Plein GbAsn subt=eAl _ _ 10.1 15.5 21.6 28.2 29.7 30.7 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.7 31.2 31.2 31.2 Gous ToCal /1 DOto production in the fi-Lt lour years cr - LLtond qu.lity dates. /I Ls produ:tion p-odant lea qcutre p-ei-errs amass sat do d-uoi-pe quyllit /2 Ianremeotul prodortion /2 Pr-duntion odditi 1nnell1 /3 Innmontal pr-duntion in rehabilitated pi-neotione. prodnotiD of rho c- jarirty Atos dotrond r /3 Prodontion Additi--nn-lr dan- las pIct-tiuos -ehabilite-s. To pr-d-eirn An dattec dosries .a tIe7 aty r- pla-rd by ne- Deglar None ofa.hoots. -cnnp di=inua -rape e1l1 coot r-s-plaeec par lrc nouncaux -ejrto DeIstlo Ne. iuly i979 1979 TfNISIA STAmF APMAtSAL RWRT OP TNE SOUT11WN IXEGATION PROJECT Ih.il Issfeastraessuee -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- No. of Well,s N.- of Proo Sabstti.o.s Land LeOellles R..ds Ir-igatio S-vten N 0e 3.a) B- ri-e (Table) Widbr-oka It.. Hertar- Well Wm ,.sep ils) (kr) No. (OVA) (kao) (lks) (D1--re, em) Ne larp- -eset (kra) _Oes Rehabilittalir Ojerid (1,290) El Ha-en 340 - - 4 60-90 cxiaring 4 125-160 _ 23.4 150-500 28.5 15 Tozeur 950 3 450 4 65-100 2.5 4 160 - 15 250-300 20 44 civil erg. Ne f-aou. (662) Raa el Ala 251 1 210 3 60-80 2 3 125 _ 12.4 150-300 21.5 6 aema 150 - - 2 56-100 - 2 700 oasis traks 11 200-500 14.5 - 0.9 7 D=uz 261 1 50 4 34-80 - 4 63-125 - 12.6 150-300 34.5 1.7 - - Cabre (1,088) Gh-anoache 673 4 590 8 27-80 3.3 8 25-125 - 42 150-500 10 10 Trb.olb u 415 3 480 4 40-80 0.5 4 25-63 - 24 150-300 - - _ _ cIvIl era. Subtotal (3,040) 12 1,880 29 27-100 0.3 25 _ 127 150-500 Z7 km. 2 m deep 0.9 7 (149 kr ikproved) Ne Plantations r Djtrid (1,287) Dt-a Sld 197 3 1,920 3 60 3.1 3 63 17 kl oa-is track. 12.5 150-250 55 7.8 37 OraS Nerd 615 10 6,500 10 60 4 10 160 11 kB arceae roads 48.5 150-250 160 15 90 37 kn Oasis trocks Hazoua 197 3 1,605 3 60 (diesel) - - 16 kee asis tracka 12.5 150-250 51 7 35 El H-nsa 278 4 1,200 4 42-84 3.9 4 125-160 14 ks oasis tracka 11 100-500 100 50 N.f-aaos (812) El GhBula 72 - _ 1 72 3 1 30-63 12 kB aoisi trarkr 3.4 200-300 12 _ 21 D-aa Skauea S0 - - 1 80 1.5 1 30-125 - 7 150-250 33 2.2 11 SBida 56 1 200 1 60 3 1 30-63 5 kB oasis tranks 3.4 200 32 2.5 12.5 R0Ji0 Mato-s 304 2 450 atesian 96-104 - - - 20 kl acces -oads 19.5 150-500 121 6 30 30 kB oasis tracks civiil rg. Atilet - Dj-en.s 300 4 660 4 80 4.6 - 125-160 _ 20.7 150-300 - Sabtotal (2,099) 27 12.535 27 42-104 23.1 24 U3Q kB rasis tracka 139 100-150 i50 ko; 2 m deep 40.5 206.5 GRAND TOTAL (5,139) 39 56 27-104 31.4 53 131 kB aesi tra-ka 266 100-150 220 kn 2 = deop 41.4 203.3 _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _~ Ba =k anrosa coaide - (19 kea tmaroraed)- __ At krst 1979 -46 - ANNEX 3 Page 1 TUNISIA STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT OF THE SOUTHERN IRRIGATION PROJECT Selected Documents and Data Available in the Project File A. Selected Reports and Studies on the Agricultural Sector in Tunisia - Draft of Agricultural Sector - IBRD Memorandum (July 1979) - Preparation du 5e Plan (1977-81) - Ministry of Agriculture - 5e Plan du Developpement Economique et Social (1977-81) - Republic of Tunisia - Budget Economique 1979 - Republic of Tunisia - Conference Mondiale sur La R&forme Agraire et le De'veloppement Rural 1978 - Republic of Tunisia - Rapport d'Activite des Offices de Mise en Valeur 1977 - Ministry of Agriculture - Rapport d'Activite des Offices de Commercialisation de Production et de Vulgarisation 1977 - Ministry of Agriculture - Enquete Agricole de Base 1976 - Ministry of Agriculture - Enquete Agricole de Base 1977 - Ministry of Agriculture - Enquete Conjoncture Agricole 1979 - Ministry of Agricu:lture - Rapport d'Activite de l'Institut national de la Recherche Agronomique de Tunisie 1978 - Ministry of Agriculture - Commercialisation Interieure des Produits de l'Agriculture 1979 - Ministry of Agriculture - Prix i la Production des Produits de l'Agriculture et de la Peche 1965-75 - Ministry of Agriculture - Budget Economique 1978, Agriculture et Pgche 1977 - Ministry of Agriculture - Budget Economique 1979, Agriculture et Peche 1978 - Ministry of Agriculture -47 - ANNEX 3 Page 2 - Evolution des Prix de Principaux Intrants 1968-78 (1979) - Ministry of Agriculture - Bulletin Mensuel de Statistique Nos. 261-264, 273-284 - Ministry of Planning - Statistiques Resumees du Commerce Exterieur 1978 - Ministry of Planning - Note sur la Conjoncture Agricole 1979 - Ministry of Agriculture - Statistique sur la Production, le Commerce et le Prix de la Viande Bovine 1978 - FAO/SIDA - Programme International de Coordination du Developpement Laitier 1978 - FAO - La Commercialisation de la Viande Bovine 1978 - FAO - Organisation du Ministere de l'Agriculture 1977 - Ministry of Agriculture - Les Perimetres Irrigues en Tunisie - Various Documents - L'Olivaie Tunisienne 1977 - FAO/SIDA/ONH - Le "Systeme Tunisien" de l'Alimentation bovine a Base d'Ensilage de Cereales 1978 - FAO/SIDA - Etude du Secteur Irrigue en Tunisie 1976 - Ministry of Agriculture B. Selected Reports and Studies Relating to the Project Plan Directeur des Eaux du Sud - Projet de Creation et de Renovation d'Oasis dans le Sud Tunisien - Rapport General et Annexes - Centre National des Etudes Agricoles (April 1979). Specifications Techniques et Estimations Quantitatives pour le Forage, l'Equipement et les Tests de Debit pour 10 Forages d'Irrigation (January 1977). Specifications Techniques et Devis Quantitatif pour le Forage, Realisa- tion et Tests de 33 Puits d'Irrigation (January 1977). Etude Agro-Economique de l'Amenagement de l'Oasis de Douz (December 1978). Etude de Sauvegarde des Oasis du Sud Tunisien - 48 - ANNEX 3 Page 3 - Oasis de Gannouche (May 1977) - Oasis de Ras El Ain (May 1977) - Oasis de Teboulbou (May 1977) - Oasis d'El Hamma du Djerid (September 1977) - Oasis de Tozeur (May 1977) Simulation pour la periode 1971-1975 de la Nappe du Complexe Terminal dans la region de la Nefzaoua - Djerid (December 1977). - Etude de creation d'oasis nouvelle (Volume II (March 1977) - Code des eaux (1978) C. Selected Working Papers and Tables Prepared by Bank Staff and Consultants Appendix C1 - Detailed data on Technical Characteristics .... ...... 1 c2 - Detailed data on Agricultural Production based on Investment Models ..... . .............................. 2 C3 - Detailed data on Investment Costs and Unit Prices ... 3 C4 - Detailed data on Economic Analysis ..... ............. 4 IBRD 14434 ; - S ; }o ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~JULY17 TUNISIA MEDITERRANEAN SEA SOUITK-RN IRRGATK)N PRJCT -,g&, ziSn~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~CAP SON re A A ia n Dranom B \= = *REHABILITATIN NEW PLANTATION NO OA5SI R7A0E (hAn NO O4S" -UP (h7 a/ 2' S~~~~~~~1REFL HAMOA 340 SFl '-L HAMMA 2I8 2~~~~~~~ = RO 25 00\2 950 SF4 . /\SUi 101 EPd N ~~~~~~~~~RTOER 4 ,,ADR.ASOD S9 SR GHANNOUC54 673 HAOA 4 A L G E R I A SR TELOLOU 41 5 GAFSt 2/\ A R RAS ES ALIN 2N1 PLAN1AIO3 LjETNIS \> rA RES R AZMA 50 DJ OUA A0 T 5 I A900 FR G0 BE 2E5 GB Mp RAAOLA0 73 1 A !P SM IA 5p | X, , . pt,:, Of .f ....... h b WldS RS .... {tm | A2430~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ILOM R IIA.' 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~T