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Russia GDP contracts 3.7 percent in 2015

Financial Markets
Asian stocks climbed on Wednesday as Japanese shares rallied, while Chinese stocks pared losses.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.7 percent with Japan’s Topix index surging 3 percent. China’s
Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.5 percent to its lowest level since December 2014 after sliding as much
as 4 percent earlier in the session. The Chinese gauge has dropped 23 percent thus far in January, and
is down 47 percent from its recent peak reached last June. Elsewhere in the region, benchmarks indexes
in Hong Kong and South Korea gained at least 1 percent.

Oil prices soared on Wednesday after U.S. data showed a surprise spike in demand for refined crude
products last week and Russia said that possible oil output cuts were discussed with the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Brent, the global benchmark, jumped 5 percent to $33.40 a
barrel in afternoon trading, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, gained 4 percent
to $32.74 a barrel.


Advanced Markets
U.S. sales of new single-family homes jumped 10.8 percent (m/m, sa) in December, reaching 544,000
and ahead of expectations. The median price of new homes sold in December dipped to $288,900,
compared with $297,000 in November. For 2015 as a whole, new home sales were 14.5 percent higher
than a year earlier.

Consumer confidence in France improved at the start of 2016, with the INSEE index increasing to 97 in
January, compared with 96 the previous month. The result was ahead of expectations and reflects a
pick-up in standard of living expectations and a reduction in fears of unemployment.

Business confidence among small and medium enterprises in Japan dipped in January, with a reading in
pessimistic territory at 47.2 on the monthly Shoko Chukin Bank survey of 1,000 companies. The result
was the lowest level in seven months, as businesses face headwinds from weak demand.


Emerging and Frontier Economies
East Asia and Pacific

The Philippines economy grew an upwardly revised 6.1 percent (y/y) in Q3, following a 5.8 percent
expansion in Q2. The top three contributors to the upward revision were: trade and repair of motor
vehicles, motorcycles, personal and household goods; transportation, storage, and communication; and
construction.

Vietnam’s industrial production rose an estimated 5.9 percent in January (y/y), slowing from a downwardly
revised 8.1 percent in December 2015. It is the lowest figure since March 2014, as mining output fell, and
processing production rose. For the whole year of 2015, industrial production was estimated to have
grown by 9.8 percent, as compared to a 7.4 percent increase in 2014.


Europe and Central Asia
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According to preliminary estimates, the Russian economy shrank 3.8 percent (y/y) in Q4, following a 4.1
percent contraction in Q3. It is the worst performance since 2009, as sanctions and lower oil prices hurt
external trade and public revenues. In 2015, the GDP contracted 3.7 percent, according to figures from
the Federal Statistics Service.


Sub-Saharan Africa

Nigeria’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 11 percent, as widely expected, following an
unexpected cut by 200bps at its November meeting in order to boost growth. The bank also held the cash
reserve ratio for commercial banks at 20 percent.




January 27, 2016



The Global Daily is an informal briefing on global economic and financial developments compiled by the
World Bank’s Development Economics Prospects Group. Recent issues, together with analysis of a
variety of macroeconomic topics, covered by the Group, may be found at:
 http://www.worldbank.org/prospects.

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or dropped from the distribution list may be sent to: Derek Chen (dchen2@worldbank.org).




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