Document of The World Bank Report No. 15011-TU STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT REPUBLIC OF TURKEY ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND TRAFFIC SAFETY PROJECT MAY 22, 1996 Infrastructure Operations Division Country Department I Europe and Central Asia Region CURRENCY EOUIVALENTS (as of May 1996) Currency Unit = Turkish Lira (TL) 1TL = 0.00001 US$ US$1 = 75,000 AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATES (per US$1) Jan 1992 Jan 1993 Jan 1994 Jan 1995 Nov 1995 May 1996 5,113 TL 8,628 TL 14,000 TL 38,801 TL 50,000 TL 75,000 TL WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System Principal Abbreviations and Acronyms Used - AADT Average Annual Daily Traffic - AC Asphaltic Concrete - EA Environmental Analysis - ERR Economic Rate of Return - EU European Union - GNP Gross National Product - GU Gazi University - HDM III Highway Design and Maintenance Model, Version III - HIMP Highway Investment and Maintenance Program - ICB International Competitive Bidding - IMF International Monetary Fund - KGM General Directorate of Highways - KOY General Directorate of Rural Affairs - MOE Ministry of Education - MOEn Ministry of Environment - MOH Ministry of Health - MOPWS Ministry of Public Works and Settlements - MOT Ministry of Transport - MTMP National Transport Master Plan - PCR Project Completion Report - PMS Pavement Management System - PPAR Project Performance Audit Report - RUC Road User Charges - SEE State Economic Enterprises - SPO State Planning Organization - TCDD Turkey State Railways - TETEK Trans-Turkey Highway - TL Turkish Lira - TTP Turkish Traffic Police TURKEY - FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31 STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT REPUBLIC OF TURKEY ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND TRAFFIC SAFETY PROJECT Contents LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY ............................... i I. THE ECONOMY AND THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ...... ..1.......... A. Economic Background and the Transport Sector .................. 1 B. Overview of the Transport Sector and Transport Sector Issues ... ...... 3 C. Sector Issues ....................................... 4 (i) Institutional Setting and Sectoral Planning .................. 5 (ii) Operational Efficiency, Transport Costs and the Role of the Private Sector ..................................... 6 D. Previous Bank Experience in the Sector ....................... 7 E. Rationale for Bank Involvement ............................ 9 II. THE HIGHWAY SECTOR ................................... 10 A. Sector Issues ....................................... 10 B. The Network ....................................... 13 C. Highway Administration ................................ 14 D. Road Transport ....... ...... .. ...................... 15 E. Highway Design, Construction and Maintenance .................. 15 F. Highway Planning .................................... 16 G. Highway Expenditures ............. .................... 17 H. Highway Financing ...... ........ ..................... 19 I. Environmental Aspects .................................. 20 II. THE PROJECT ................... ...................... 21 A. Project Origin ...................................... 21 B. Project Objectives .................................... 22 C. Project Description ................................... 22 State Road Rehabilitation. ............................. 22 Improvement of Rural Roads ........................... 23 The Road Traffic Safety Program ......................... 23 Institutional Development .............................. 25 D. Cost Estimates ...................................... 26 E. Financing ......................................... 26 F. Implementation, Monitoring and Auditing ...................... 28 G. Procurement .................. ..................... 30 H. Disbursement .................. ..................... 33 I. Environmental Impact .................................. 34 IV. ECONOMIC EVALUATION ................................. 36 A. Benefits and Beneficiaries ................................ 36 B. Costs and Benefits .................................... 37 C. Risks ............................................ 38 V. AGREEMENTS AND RECOMMENDATION ........ .. ............. 38 ANNEXES 1. Past and Ongoing Operations in the Highway Sector 2. Axle Load Control 3. Road Traffic Safety 4. Road User Charges 5. Road Traffic Safety Action Plan 6. Project Implementation Plan 7 Estimated Schedule of Disbursements 8. Environmental Analysis 9. Example of KGM's Economic Evaluation of Road Projects 10. Economic Evaluation of the First Year Projects 11. List of documents in the Project File TABLES 1. Table 2.1 Highway Investment and Maintenance Plan 2. Table 3.1 Project Cost Estimate 3. Table 3.2 Financing Plan 4. Table 3.3 Summary of Proposed Procurement Arrangements CHARTS 1. Chart 1.1 Freight Transport 2. Chart 1.2 Passenger Transport 3. Chart 2.1 KGM Technical and Administrative Staff Per 1000 km of State & Provincial Roads 4. Chart 2.2 KGM Labor per 1000 km of State & Provincial Roads 5. Chart 2.3 Accidents, Fatalities and Injuries per Million Vehicle - km 6. Chart 2.4 Vehicles, Population and GDP 7. Chart 2.5 Expenditures on State, Provincials & Rural Roads 8. Chart 2.6 Road User Charges & Expenditures MAP: IBRD) 27396 This document is based on an appraisal mission to Turkey in June 1995, consisting of Mirtha Pokorny (Sr. Operations Officer and Task Manager), Charles Jeremy Lane (Sr. Highway Engineer); Dong Liu, (Economist); Spyros Margetis (Sr. Environmental Specialist) and Peter Nygaard (Consultant). Peer reviewers are Jaffar Bentchikou (Sr. Highway Engineer) and Peter Parker (Sr. Transport Economist). The Division Chief is Ricardo Halperin and the Department Director is Kenneth G. Lay. REPUBLIC OF TURKEY ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND TRAFFIC SAFETY PROJECT LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Republic of Turkey Executing Agencies: General Directorate of Highways (KGM) in the Ministry of Public Works and Settlements (MOPWS), Turkish Traffic Police (TTP) in the Ministry of the Interior, Ministry of Health (MOH), Gazi University (GU), and Ministry of Education (MOE). Loan Amount: US dollars 100 million, and US dollars 150 million equivalent Terms: 100 million US dollars payable in seventeen years, including five years of grace, at the standard interest rate of LIBOR-based US dollar single currency loans; and 150 million US dollars equivalent payable in seventeen years, including five years of grace, at the standard variable interest rate for currency pool loans. Project Objectives: The project objectives include: (a) the reduction of road transport costs through infrastructure improvements and the protection of past investments in the highway sector through rehabilitation and strengthening of paved highways (b) the improvement of traffic safety in state and provincial roads; (c) the improvement of the operational efficiency of KGM through the implementation of management systems and computerization, and (d) improvement in the consideration of environmental factors in project selection and design. Project Description: The project includes: a) the road improvement program, comprising strengthening or upgrading of about 600 km of high priority state roads, about 300 km of rural (provincial) roads and town passages; b) the road traffic safety program, involving i) civil and traffic engineering improvements to accident black spots; ii) a program to improve driver education; iii) provision of equipment to TTP and the medical hospital at GU; iv) extension of TTP's accident data base to other users; and v) provision of road safety materials for traffic management; and c) the institutional development program, consisting in the introduction of various management systems and computerization throughout KGM and training of the staff of KGM in the areas of environmental analysis, road planning, construction and maintenance. - ii - Benefits: The project's main direct benefits would be to reduce road transport costs through the improvement of the condition of state and provincial roads. The project would also support KGM's programs to improve road traffic safety, providing social, economic and environmental benefits. Risks: The project poses no undue risks from an investment or environmental view, and KGM has a very good implementation record. The main risk concerns the possible failure of the Government to allocate sufficient budgetary funds for highway strengthening and rehabilitation programs because of macroeconomic constraints and the normal institutional and organizational risks associated with the establishment of a new integrated approach to address road traffic safety. The project would incorporate a strong link between the programs and the annual budgets to mitigate risks related to funding. In particular, to avoid the possible atomization of investments in many projects with uncertain future funding, the pace of approval of new contracts will be contingent to satisfactory funding of works in the initial phase of the program. Also, the economic evaluation of projects to be financed under the loan quantifies the economic impact of delays in project implementation due to shortage of funds; only projects estimated to be economically viable even when completed with possible delays, will be financed under the loan. Institutional risks are limited by the project focus on issues in which the Government has already demonstrated a strong interest and in which there is already solid progress. The coordination of the various agencies involved in traffic safety will pose a difficult institutional challenge, and in recognition of this the project proposes a gradual approach. Estimated Project Cost:'/ Local Foreign Total ------------ US$ million ------------ Traffic Safety 27.2 47.9 75.1 Road Rehabilitation 168.2 121.8 290.0 Institutional Development 0.3 5.2 5.5 Sub Total 195.7 174.9 370.6 Price Contingencies 9.9 88 18.7 Grand Total 205.6 183.7 389.3 1/ Differences due to rounding - 111 - Financing: Local Foreign Total ------------ US$ million ------------ Government 139.3 0.0 139.3 Bank 66.3 183.7 250.0 Total 205.6 183.7 2-389.2 Estimated IBRD Disbursements: IBRD Fiscal Year 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 --------------- US$ million -------------------- Annual 15.0 40.0 75.0 65.0 30.0 17.5 7.5 Cumulative 15.0 55.0 130.0 195.0 225.0 242.5 250.0 Economic Rate of Return: Above 20% for the First Year Program. All projects in the state road network to be financed under the loan should have an economic rate of return (ERR) in excess of 12%. Subprojects in the provincial (rural) road network with an Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT): (i) above 250 vehicles should have an ERR of at least 12%; (ii) between 150 and 250 vehicles should have an ERR of at least 10%; and (iii) below 150 vehicles should have an ERR of at least 8%. The benefits of the road works are derived from savings in vehicle operating costs and reduced road maintenance expenditures due to improved road surface. The screening and ranking process for the selection of projects in the provincial road network ensures that they have priority based on social factors such as accessibility to rural towns and villages. Estimated ERRs for improvements of traffic accident "black spots" range from 12% to above 500%. Benefits were calculated on the basis of the monetary value of avoided accidents, that is, income foregone due to injuries and savings from reduced damages to vehicles. REPUBLIC OF TURKEY ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND TRAFFIC SAFETY PROJECT I. THE ECONOMY AND THE TRANSPORT SECTOR A. Economic Background and the Transport Sector 1.1 Turkey's population of about 60 million has grown at an average rate of about 2.3 percent per annum during the last decade. Population density is low, and about 60 percent of the population lives in urban centers. Unemployment has remained slightly above 10 percent through most of the past decade, and income inequality is high, with considerable differences in income between regions and between rural and urban communities. During the last several years, there was a resurgence of high fiscal deficits and inflation that overshadowed the gains attained through the broad-based liberalization of the economy in the 1980s. In 1993 the intemal imbalances spilled over into the external accounts, culminating in a severe currency crisis during the early months of 1994. There were successive downgrading of Turkey's credit rating by the international rating agencies, and access to external financing was virtually severed. 1.2 Faced with a general financial crisis, the Government initiated a stabilization program in April 1994. The main objectives of the program were to: (i) achieve a substantial reduction in the fiscal deficit and inflation; (ii) reduce the external deficit and restore foreign exchange reserves; and (iii) establish a structural framework for more sustainable rapid growth, chiefly through a considerable reduced role of government in economic activities. The Program was supported by a fourteen-month IMF Stand-By arrangement approved in July 1994. 1.3 Some of the initial results of the Program were very encouraging. The budget deficit was reduced substantially in 1994, largely through a number of special taxes and real cuts in spending on personnel costs and subsidies. As a result, the overall public sector borrowing requirements fell from 12.6 % of GNP in 1993 to 8% in 1994. The external current account registered a sizable surplus of about US$ 2.6 billion in 1994 and foreign currency reserves have been fully restored to the levels prevailing before the crisis. Despite these achievements, the underlying economic situation remains tenuous. There has been slow and uneven progress in implementing the structural reforms that would provide the basis for sustainable growth. While good progress has been made in introducing tax reforms, and in some areas of government spending, progress with reforms in the rest of the public sector, including transport agencies, have been lagging. Inflation reached an average annual rate of about 90% in 1995 and real interest rates remain very high. Real GNP, which declined by an estimated 6% in 1994, grew by about 8% during 1995. - 2 - 1.4 The immediate economic challenge facing Turkey at this juncture is to bring about a sustainable reduction in inflation by improving the fiscal situation. The sharp improvement in economic activity achieved during 1995 is an indicator of the country's strong growth potential and of the dynamism of its private sector. However, to fully reap the benefits of this, and avoid stop-go cycles of high inflation and stabilization and set a basis for sustainable growth fundamental reforms of the public sector are needed, including: (i) privatization or closure of state economic enterprises; (ii) a substantial downsizing of the public administration; (iii) further rationalization of the costly government interventions in investment, production and market decisions; and (iv) action to stem the financial losses of the main pension funds, followed by comprehensive medium-term reforms of health and social security financing. In the transport sector, the focus should be on improving operational efficiency, cost recovery and resource allocation through (i) modernization of policy instruments; (ii) development and implementation of realistic and balanced pricing and investment strategies; (iii) approximation of laws and standards with international standards, in particular those of the European Union (EU); and (iv) development of strategies to increase the market orientation of the sector through a better private-public sector mix. 1.5 These policy reforms need to be complemented by a variety of institutional reforms to strengthen public financial management. A major impetus for change stems from the requirements of the customs union with the EU that took effect from the beginning of 1996. Expenditure management and control is severely hampered by the complex and outdated budgetary framework and systems, the plethora of agencies and funds that are effectively outside the budgetary process, and deficiencies in cash management and public sector accounting. The management of personnel expenditures presents a particular problem. The public administration in Turkey is characterized by considerable over-staffing due to poor information on and controls over personnel expenditures. There are also serious problems of staff quality and performance due to the inadequate wage structure, weak career incentives and inefficient procedures. These issues, which also affect the transport sector in general and the road subsector in particular, are further discussed throughout this report. 1.6 To address the problem of public expenditures and personnel management, the recently approved Public Financial Management Project has as one of its objectives to improve the government's ability to program and control spending efficiently. The project focuses at enhancing the government's budget usefulness as a fiscal policy instrument, and as the tool for managing public finances. To do so, it aims at reducing, and where possible eliminating, the many sources of spending which now operate outside budgetary channels. It also aims to substantially modernize the complex and outdated budgetary, accounting and auditing procedures and systems that impede effective control over government finances. The project includes the introduction of budgeting of public administration positions and payroll which is expected to help improve control over personnel expenditures and provide the information base for a structured rationalization of the civil service. Modernization of the budgetary system should improve the level of accountability and transparency of expenditures, which is also an impediment to improve the efficiency of the road subsector (para 2.3). - 3 - B. Overview of the Transport Sector and Transport Sector Issues 1.7 Transport is vital for the economic development and integration of Turkey. Increasing the efficiency of the transport sector is a priority both because of the enabling role the sector can play in the economy and the integration of the country with the EU. Turkey is a large country, with an area about that of France and UK combined, and population and activities widely spread. For instance, Ankara is over 400 km from any of its nearest ports, i.e., Samsun, Istanbul, and Mersin. Turkey is also the natural land transport bridge between Europe and the Middle East. Again, the distances are long, 1,750 km from the Bulgarian border to Iran and 1,900 km to Iraq. Problems of distance are increased by the mountainous terrain and harsh winter conditions in most of Anatolia. Hence the improvement in the transport infrastructure is a major priority for the overall development of the economy. 1.8 The backbone of Turkey's transport system consists of the 380,000 km of roads (61,000 km of state and provincial roads and motorways, and 320,000 km of rural roads) and to a lesser extent the 8,400 km of rail network. Surrounded by seas on three sides and with a coastline of 8,300 km, Turkey has some 80 ports and 100 coastal facilities, ranging from open roadsteads to small jetties. Airports (22 state airports, 13 of them international) and pipelines (1,200 km) complete the transport infrastructure. 1.9 Turkey's freight transport includes not only domestic freight and import/export traffic, but also transit traffic between Europe and the Middle East. The domestic traffic has been growing at about 5% annually from 1983 to 1992 and reached a total of 107 billion ton- kilometers (tkm) in 1993 (Chart 1-1). 91 % of the tkm were carried by road and the rest by rail, coastal shipping, and air. In addition, some 3 billion tkm of crude oil and products were shipped by pipeline. The focal points of Turkey's transit and foreign trade are the ports. In 1994, the ports handled a total of about 109 million tons of cargo. Of this total, 22 million tons were exports, 53 million tons were imports, 34 million tons were coastal trade, and 0.2 million tons were transit cargo. 1.10 Turkey's passenger transport has been increasing at 5.6% per year over the past 10 years and reached 155 billion passenger - kilometers (pkm) by 1993 (Chart 1-2). 94% of the pkm was handled by road, 5% by rail, and the other 1% by air. Travel by private cars or buses has been booming, increasing near 6% annually over the past twenty years. Rail mainline passenger traffic, however, has been stagnant since the 1950s. Air transport has been growing fast in recent years. The total number of passengers has been increasing at an average rate of 12% annually over the past five years, reaching 20.7 million in 1993, of whom 7.4 million were domestic and 13.3 million international. 1.11 Generally, Turkey's transport system capacity has been sufficient to handle the growing demand without major bottlenecks. A large increase in transport investment took place in the 1980s, after the publication in 1983 of the first National Transport Master Plan (NTMP). Road transport services for freight and passengers are deregulated, responsive to demand, and highly competitive. For instance, privately operated buses run frequently to virtually every point of the country, offering different levels of services at different prices. International trucking also developed rapidly in the 1980s. Turkey now has the largest fleet - 4 - of trucks operating between Europe and the Middle East: their services are an important sources of foreign exchange earnings. Air transport deregulation has brought in a number of smaller private airlines, notably Istanbul Airlines and Green Air. These airlines compete with the national airline, Turkish Airlines, on domestic and international routes, in both scheduled and chartered flights. Chr 1-1: FreiJ Transport (MiNion Taon-Ilormters) 100,000 90.000 80,000 70.000 *Hghway 60.000 50,000 .:P1l 40.000 M Sea & Air 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 83 85 87 89 91 93 hwt 1-2: Passenger Trxsport (Million Passengw- Kiomrers) 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 * ighway 80,000 Ral 60,000 Sea & Air 40,000, 20,000 0 83 85 87 89 91 93 C. Sector Issues 1.12 The main issues affecting the transport sector are related to: (i) institutional setting and sector planning; and (ii) operational efficiency, transport costs and the role of the private sector in the provision of transport services. - 5 - (i) Institutional Setting and Sectoral Planning 1.13 There are two main institutions responsible for the transport sector at the central government level, the Ministry of Public Works and Settlements (MOPWS) and the Ministry of Transport (MOT). The MOPWS, through its General Directorate of Highways (KGM), is responsible for the development and maintenance of state and provincial roads and motorways. The MOT is responsible for developing the infrastructure of rail, maritime and air transport modes; the regulation of transport operations in the various modes and the supervision of State Economic Enterprises (SEE) in the transport sector, except for the pipelines which are under the Ministry of Energy. The Turkey State Railways (TCDD) is responsible for the operation of the railways and the major ports in the country, while the Airport Agency operates the civilian airports. In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture, through its General Directorate of Rural Affairs (KOY), is responsible for the construction and maintenance of rural roads. 1.14 Planning units within the modal agencies and SEEs are responsible for identifying and proposing capital investments and operating budget estimates. They provide the technical, economic and, in the case of SEEs, financial feasibility studies for investment projects. The State Planning Organization (SPO) has the responsibility for reviewing the agencies' investment proposals and establishing the medium-term as well as the annual investments programs. 1.15 The institutional capacity to undertake analysis on an intermodal basis could be strengthened. The SPO's in-house capability could be improved to integrate subsectoral demands into a comprehensive intermodal investment plan through an annual budgeting exercise guided by a clearly defined government investment strategy providing broad guidelines based on economic considerations. 1.16 The 1983 National Transport Master Plan (NMTP) represented an important step towards the introduction of a sectoral approach to transport planning. It provided the basis for the surge of investments in the second half of the 1980s, and still continues to be quoted to justify some road projects. As is the case with the experience of other countries, however, the plan has not been designed as a dynamic tool with the capacity to incorporate changes in conditions and demand. Thus, some of its recommendations have become outdated. The lull in major investments that is expected to result from stringent budgetary constraints will certainly help to avoid major distortions in expanding the capacity of the sector. This period of limited investments, coupled with the government's commitment to reform, should provide an opportunity for strategic thinking. A clearer definition of the role of the private sector in the development of transport infrastructure, particularly ports and railways, and the commercial orientation of transport agencies should precede institutional reform and the allocation of intermodal planning responsibilities. - 6 - (ii) Operational Efficiency, Transport Costs and the Role of the Private Sector 1.17 Road transport is operated entirely by the private trucking operators and handles over 80% of the freight and 95% of the passenger demand. The industry is competitive and freight rates are below those in neighboring countries. However, the total cost of road transport (the addition of vehicle operating costs incurred by the private sector and the cost to the public sector of expanding, improving and maintaining the road network) could be further reduced through improvements in investment decisions, downsizing KGM operations and eliminating excess staff, accelerating the shift to contracted road works, and reducing road deterioration due to excessive overloading. The main issues in the road subsector are further discussed in Chapter II. 1.18 The most pressing issue in the transport sector, both in terms of transport efficiency and fiscal equilibrium, is the future role of the railways. Like in most other countries, Turkish railways under TCDD have lost their monopoly in the face of road competition and their share of the market has decreased considerably, from near 50% in the 1960s to about 20% in the 1970s and to around 10% since the 1980s. In 1994, revenues from TCDD's passenger and freight operations covered less than 30% of their respective costs, down from about 50% five years ago. The drain on public funds has reached nearly 2 million US dollars a day. The losses are covered by Government subsidies and by port operating profits. Government controls tariffs and increases are granted late and lagging behind inflation. There is, however, a limited scope to increase TCDD's finances through tariff increases because of the very competitive trucking charges. Hence, to reduce deficits there is no option but to substantially reduce costs by closing down uneconomic lines and by increasing efficiency and productivity, focusing operations on the more profitable freight business sharply reducing passenger services. The Bank, with funds from a Japanese Grant, is helping the Government to carry out studies of alternative railway restructuring options, including the closure of non-profitable lines, the elimination of less-than-car-loads, and the privatization of ancillary services. 1.19 The importance of the participation of the private sector in the provision of services is particularly evident in the port subsector, where many changes that improve competition come about as a result of pressure from shipping lines, national shippers, trading partners and equipment manufacturers seeking the advantages through transport from origin to destination, including improved total transport speed, lower inventory costs, more predictable collection and delivery, less packaging, and reduced damage and lower insurance costs. Thus, ports are adapting rapidly to containerization, introducing computers, and automating container terminals. The new technologies require operators with sophisticated computer knowledge and the ability to absorb large amounts of rapidly transmitted information and use information technology in response. Port workers need higher levels of skills and more training that emphasizes independent decision-making. The existing centralized institutional setting coupled with the distorted system of incentives that is typical of a public enterprise, is not conducive to incorporate the changes necessary to improve the competitiveness of the Turkish ports. The Government is in the process of evaluating alternatives to increase the participation of private operators in the system and to encourage private investments in port modernization. However, the profitability of the ports, derived mostly from their monopolistic position, greatly reduces the sense of urgency for changes in the system. D. Previous Bank Experience in the Sector 1.20 The Bank's involvement in Turkey's transport sector has been sporadic and on a relatively small scale. Over thirty years, the Bank made only eight loans to the sector; two for railways, three for ports, and three for roads. Project implementation has generally been satisfactory in achieving physical targets, although experiencing delays, but policy and institutional reforms have generally been below original expectations. The related Project Completion Reports (PCR) and Project Performance Audit Reports (PPAR) attribute the disappointing institutional results to (i) over-ambitious project design; and (ii) a dialogue with the Borrower characterized by little common grounds, both on key sectoral issues and on the role of the Bank in the sector. In particular, the contribution of the Bank to the sector has been largely perceived by the Government in financial terms, rather than as a source of relevant experience for institutional strengthening and policy reform. 1.21 Regarding the highway projects (Annex 1), the PPAR of the First Highway Project of 1982 concludes that the physical work on the priority sections of the network was implemented satisfactorily, while the impact on highway safety, vehicle loading, and KGM planning and control capacity building components was limited. The PCR of the Second Highway Project of 1984 concludes that the physical objectives of the project were successfully achieved. Delays occurred as a result of disagreement between the Bank and KGM over bidding documents, lack of KGM funding, and KGM's practice of adding extra work to contracts. Economic Rates of Return (ERR) were lower than appraisal estimates because of costs overrun and because traffic was affected by regional military conflicts. Physical completion was not achieved within the loan disbursement period and funds from the follow-on project were allocated for completing the works. There was institutional strengthening in road safety and project management, institutional procurement and pavement design. 1.22 The objectives of the ongoing State and Provincial Roads Project (Loan 3324-TU) were to keep road transport costs low by ensuring adequate maintenance and by reducing the backlog of road strengthening, to continue the downsizing, modernization and improvement of the management of KGM's equipment fleet, to further strengthen the planning capabilities of KGM, and to improve the management and safety of the road system through reforms and training. Except for an early procurement dispute, the implementation of the State and Provincial Roads project has been progressing well, without significant problems. It is expected that about 85 % of the contracted works will be financed within the loan disbursement period. 1.23 With respect to traffic safety, the Bank has carried out 107 projects in 51 countries containing road safety related elements. Of these, 36 included projects where improving road safety was a specific objective. In the remainder, where road safety was an - 8 - indirect objective, road safety impacts were achieved as part of traffic engineering, traffic control and/or traffic management components. In many of these projects, as is the case of the State and Provincial Road Project in Turkey, safety-related elements include safety engineering measures such as improvement to signals, guardrails and road painting. 1.24 A considerable body of experience has now been built up at the Bank which is being used to shape future projects that seek to address road safety. This experience points to the fact that road safety components in Bank projects are only likely to be effective where senior decision makers in the country are aware of the problem and committed to its resolution. Four broad categories of awareness are identified: (i) countries with little awareness; (ii) countries in which the Government is aware of the road safety problem but has given it limited priority; (iii) countries in which efforts are being made to tackle the different aspects of road safety but face a need for financial and technical resources; and (iv) countries similar to (iii) but with resources being allocated and specific improvements being implemented which show reductions in accident casualty rates and in the number of casualties. The situation in Turkey, characterized by the willingness of different ministries with fragmented responsibility "to do something", the incipient mobilization of pressure groups and the growing involvement of academic centers to produce research on the subject, places the country as just entering the third level of awareness. Experience suggests that in countries with Turkey's level of awareness, projects should be designed in phases, with involvement of specialist consultants with extensive experience in technology transfer and in the development and implementation of Road Traffic Safety Action Plans to strengthen local institutions and individuals so that they can carry out subsequent phases independently. About 5-10 years should be allowed for this process of "institution building" based on rolling three-year Action Plans2/. These lessons have been taken into account in the design of the road traffic safety component of the proposed project. 1.25 In summary: (a) the main lessons drawn from the physical implementation of the road projects show the need to ensure: (i) adequate annual budgetary allocation of funds for ongoing and committed subprojects, before any agreement is made to include new subprojects for Bank financing; and (ii) the completion of detailed designs for works prior to contract awards and a stringent limit in the addition of extra works. The proposed project design draws from these lessons by consolidating annual consultations on KGM's Highway Investment and Maintenance Program (HIMP) and budget (para 3.17). Also, detailed design for the first year state road subproject have been completed. (b) the experience with the limited success in achieving the institutional and policy objectives of past Bank projects, points to the need for realistic objectives, suitable rewards for good performance, and support for 2/ Review of World Bank Experience in Road Traffic Safety by Alan Ross and Michael Ray. Paper presented in the Policy Seminar 'Road Safety for Central and Eastern Europe". Budapest, October 1994. - 9 - worthwhile reforms undertaken by the Turkish agencies themselves.&' The proposed project incorporates these findings by focusing its institutional and policy objectives in supporting ongoing KGM's efforts to improve road safety and road management. KGM is also maling progress, albeit at a slower pace, on important issues that cut across sectors and require a political definition outside the agency's control: i.e. staff reductions (para. 2.2), increased participation of the private sector (para. 2.2), and expenditure controls (para. 2.3). (c) past experiences with road traffic safety components points to the complexity involved in the design and implementation of multidisciplinary and interinstitutional measures to improve safety. The Road Traffic Safety Action Plan developed during project preparation (paras. 3.8 - 3.10) takes into consideration the long term character of institutional development, and the need to phase planned efforts to provide the necessary flexibility to a process with a strong element of learning by doing. E. Rationale for Bank Involvement 1.26 The proposed project is consistent with the Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) as discussed by the Board of Directors during the presentation of the Bursa Water and Sanitation Project, Report No. P-5897-TU, on March 11, 1993. The preparation of a new CAS is well underway. However, discussions of the country strategy with the Turkish authorities have been affected by the recent elections and the subsequent formation of a new Government during the initial months of 1996. These discussions are now expected to be held in the coming months. Meanwhile, in keeping with the priorities and graduated Bank response outlined in the March 1993 CAS, the Bank is continuing support for infrastructure development. 1.27 Easing transport bottlenecks is an integral element of the Government's development agenda to promote the growth of Turkey's dynamic private sector. Accordingly, continued maintenance of the road network, which carries the major share of all traffic, is a priority. The roads sub-sector lends itself to continued Bank support. KGM has a proven track record, the implementation of the ongoing State and Provincial Roads Project is successful, and the institution building and resource needs for road improvement are considerable. Therefore, we propose to continue Bank support for the maintenance of the road network through the proposed project. The project will also support efforts to improve traffic safety, which has become an important issue due to the increasing incidence of accidents. I/ PPAR of Highway Rehabilitation Project (Loan 2137-TU); February 15, 1991. - 10 - II. THE HIGHWAY SECTOR A. Sector Issues 2.1 This chapter reviews the main issues that the proposed project would address, in particular institutional strengthening, planning and budgeting, and road traffic safety. The chapter also discusses size and weight limits for trucks, since reducing excessive road damage caused by overloading is one of the main priorities in KGM's agenda. 2.2 Institutional Strengthening. KGM is a highly effective organization aiming at gradually increasing its efficiency in road management. As many other public agencies in Turkey, KGM is striving to reduce overstaffing and excessive reliance on force account. In 1994, KGM employed a personnel of 35,000, of which 5,600 are technical and administrative staff and 29,500 laborers. Over the past ten years, the number of technical and administrative staff have been rising, (mainly to attend the operation and maintenance of an expanding motorway system) while the number of labor has fallen, especially temporary labor (Charts 2-1 and 2-2). The net is a reduction of 5,200 employees (13 %) from the 1983 level of 40,000. The reduction in the labor force has been accompanied by an increase in construction works by contract, from 25% in 1983 to 70% in 1994. KGM, in line with Government's policy directives is committed to continue the gradual downsizing of KGM's labor force and the shift to contracted works4'. awt 2-1: KGM Staff pe 1000 km State & Rovincial Pis 100 90 80- staf 70 60 50 40- 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 The level of personnel in KGM is in line with that encountered in developing countries with a GDP per capita similar to Turkey. The ratio of kilometers attended per employee in Turkey is about 1.8. Although the ratio is influenced by the type of network and its connectivity and the activities performed, it offers a rough measure of productivity. The most efficient organization is that of New Zealand, with a ratio of 70 km/worker. In the different states in the US the ratio varies from 5 to 10. Colombia had a ratio of 1.7 in 1993, and Russia has a ratio of 1. Ratios below 1 are not uncommon in the developing world. - 11 - Chart 2-2: KGM Labor per 1000 km State & Provincial Roads 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 2.3 As discussed in Chapter I, expenditure controls, including those on personnel, are hampered by an outdated budgetary system. In fact, because KGM is under a line budget, as opposed to a program or project budget, it is very difficult to relate physical and financial results. KGM does not have a common system of cost accounting and key information on the productivity of equipment and/or labor is not readily available for decision making. The proposed project would support the development of management systems that, once implemented, would result in better planning, improved allocation of resources among different road interventions, a more transparent accounting system, and enhanced expenditure controls (para. 3.12). KGM is in the process of aggregating useful 1994 cost data now available only at the project level, in order to better evaluate the allocation of funds to different road interventions and their cost, and will continue producing the aggregated data for subsequent years. This information will provide the basis for the discussions on KGM's investment program that will take place during the annual project implementation reviews (para. 3.17). 2.4 Axle-load controls. The legal axle load limit in Turkey is 13 tons on a single axle and 19 tons on a tandem axle. However, vehicle overloading is reported to be a serious problem leading to accelerated wear and tear of pavements and to road accidents. This not only applies to the KGM administered 60,000 km road network but also to rural roads (320,000 km) which are the responsibility of the Ministry of Rural Affairs. To minimize the total economic cost of the road haulage affected by regulations of axle-loads and gross vehicle weights, KGM is embarking on a comprehensive program to revise and enforce the relevant regulations. To that effect, a proposed Highway Law, now under the consideration of Parliament, proposes a substantial increase in fines and grants permission for unloading overloaded vehicles. Also, KGM is in the process of procuring 18 weigh-in-motion stations to be placed in key points of the road system where their needs are more obvious. A more comprehensive coverage of the network is expected to follow the completion of surveys to determine the number and location of additional stations. - 12 - 2.5 KGM recognizes the limitations of controls as a deterrent for overloading and is engaged in a constructive, although sometimes politically difficult, dialogue with the trucking industry to reach a satisfactory solution to the problem. Thus, it is pursuing measures to reduce overloading through additional methods, such as incentives for self-control based on the dissemination of information on the long-run costs of overloading to the trucking industry; dissemination to the general public of performance of the trucking industry and its effects on costs to the tax payers; and active participation of the insurance industry in controlling accidents caused by overloading. The planned investments in weigh-in-motion stations will provide the possibility to gather reliable data to support continued dialogue with Parliament and the trucking industry on the importance of effective legal deterrents and compliance with existing regulation. Annex 2 provides further information on axle-load controls. 2.6 Road Safety. Road accidents are a serious socio-economic problem in Turkey. In 1993, about 210,000 accidents were reported by police, of which there were 6,500 deaths and 104,000 injuries. From 1983 to 1993, the number of accidents had been growing at an average 14% per year, more than twice the growth rate of vehicle-kilometers (6%). Accidents per million vehicle-kilometers has more than doubled over the ten-year period, from 3.2 in 1983 to 6.8 in 1993 (Chart 2-3). The number of injuries has been increasing at about 9% per year, and the injuries per million vehicle-kilometers has risen from 2.5 in 1983 to 3.4 in 1993. Due to the introduction of air bags and seat belts in cars, the number of fatalities had been increasing at a lower rate than accidents, about 2% per year, and the fatalities per million vehicle-kilometers have been falling, from 0.3 in 1983 to 0.2 in 1993. However, the fatality rate is still about eight times the average of the European Community. ChaFt 2-3: Accidents. Fatalities and lrIuries per Million Vehicle-Kilometers (mvkm) 35.00 30.00 26.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 .njunesi vkm Acci7denVtslmvkm 5.00 ___L_ 0.00 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 - 13 - 2.7 The Government has realized the seriousness of road traffic safety problem and has initiated several activities aimed at raising public awareness and changing aggressive driving behavior. Campaigns have recently been performed by KGM and a new program to educate school children on important traffic rules have been prepared. The Federation for Commercial Drivers has started up special training courses to improve the skills of commercial drivers. The proposed project, through its road traffic safety component (paras. 3.8-3.11), will support the improvement of accident black spots, police enforcement of driving regulations, and training. Annex 3 provides further details on road traffic safety in Turkey. 2.8 The success of the efforts to improve road traffic safety depends heavily on the effective coordination of activities carried out by the several agencies involved. Particularly critical for the prompt identification of accident black spots is the coordination between KGM and the Police, which to some extent exists at the working level but needs to be institutionalized and systematized. Meanwhile, effective informal coordination is taking place at the working level. The project is expected to have a catalytic role in strengthening the coordination process through the implementation of a pilot scheme that brings together the relevant agencies responsible for road safety. B. The Network 2.9 Public roads in Turkey are classified in a four-tier system: motorways (multi-lane access-controlled highways), state roads, provincial roads, and rural roads. KGM is responsible for the administration of motorways and state and provincial roads. The Ministry of Rural Affairs has jurisdiction over rural roads. In addition, there are urban roads which are under the administration of municipal authorities. 2.10 By 1994, the road network, excluding urban roads, totalled over 380,000 km compared to 230,000 km in 1980 and 140,000 km in 1970. In the last decade, the increases occurred in rural roads and motorways, while the state and provincial roads remained at about 60,000 km. In 1985 KGM started an ambitious program for building 1650 km of motorways in the most trafficked corridors of the country. To date, 1070 km have been completed at a total cost of about US$ 8 billion. Completion of the program, estimated to cost an additional US$ 4.3 billion is tentatively programmed for the end of 1997. However, because of the financial difficulties confronted by the country, it is likely that the program will suffer delays. 2.11 Parts of the state and provincial road system are old and have weak pavements, leading to high road maintenance and vehicle operating costs, especially in the case of vehicle overloading. The geometry is also poor in some sections. However, the system is generally maintained in good condition. Maintenance is always given top priority by KGM. When funds are short, as in recent years, investments have been deferred so that more funds could be used for maintenance including periodic resurfacing. As a result, the surface condition of the state road network is rated 80% good, 15% fair and 5% poor. Ratings are not available for provincial roads, but conditions have improve!d since 1980. The r)ercentage of bituminous surfaced - 14 - provincial roads increased from 35% in 1980 to over 70% in 1994. The rural road network, built to much lower standards, suffers especially from overloaded two axle vehicles and is difficult to maintain to an adequate operating standard. Urban roads are in general, adequately maintained. C. Highway Administration 2.12 KGM is a mature organization and has a proven track record of project implementation. About 16% of the staff and 2% of the labor are stationed at headquarters in Ankara, both ratios are lower than the 1983 levels (25% and 3%, respectively). The headquarters staff is organized in 11 departments with 37 divisions. The field organization consists of 18 regional divisions (bolge), each division comprises 4 to 9 sub-divisions (sube). Each sub-division covers about 500-600 km of the state and provincial road network. Within each division are based an average of 7 maintenance teams, each team has a crew of 5 to 8 workers with responsibility for 50-100 km of road. There are in addition three equipment and workshop groups at Maltepe (Istanbul), Iskenderun, and Akkopru (Ankara). Winter maintenance is a major activity of KGM, to keep roads free from snow and landslides. No roads included in the winter maintenance program are allowed to remain closed to traffic for more than two days. During 1994, 94% of the state and provincial road network was covered by the winter program. 2.13 The division directors of KGM exercise a large measure of executive authority. They are accountable to the General Director for operational matters and to the department heads for technical matters. Construction and periodic resurfacing works are managed from the divisional offices, while routine maintenance work is done at sub-divisional level. Equipment is allocated to the 18 divisional offices according to the construction and maintenance programs of the divisions. The head of the Equipment Department in Ankara is responsible for the overall inventory control of the fleet and the operation of central stores and equipment pools in Ankara, Istanbul and Iskenderun, and through divisional directors for the provision and maintenance in running order of sufficient equipment for KGM's road maintenance and construction activities. 2.14 KGM is making successful efforts to adapt its organization to new demands and to the changing character of the network. To that end an Environmental Division created in 1995 is now in the process of being staffed. To date, the Division is working with teams of experts assigned on an ad-hoc basis to carry-out particular Environmental Assessments of major road works. Also, KGM is in the process of deciding the institutional arrangements for the operation and maintenance (O&M) of the motorway system. About 10% of the toll revenues are allocated to that end, while the rest are for servicing the debt incurred in the construction of the system. In addition to reviewing the adequacy of the financial resources available for O&M, KGM is considering the creation of a Motorways Department with the necessary skill to carry-out the more sophisticated (information-intensive) operation of the expanding motorway system. - 15 - D. Road Transport 2.15 Road transport is deregulated and both the trucking and bus industries are mainly privately owned. Transport companies, both domestic and international, vary greatly in size and many are grouped into associations and cooperatives. Competition between operators keeps tariffs, as well as profit margins, low. 2.16 The number of registered motor vehicles has been growing at a rate of over 10% a year over the past ten years, reaching 4.4 million in 1993. This growth rate was more than four times the population growth rate (2.2% p.a.) and two times the GDP growth rate (5.5% p.a.) during the same period (Chart 2-4). Chat 2-4: Veliides. Population and GDP (GDP in constant 1987 US dollars) 80 70 Vehicles per 60 Thousand People 50 40 Vehicles per 30 Million GDP 20 l 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 2.17 Traffic counting and surveys are conducted by KGM regularly on state and provincial roads. Statistics show that traffic on state and provincial roads had increased from 17 billion vehicle-kilometers in 1983 to 31 billion vehicle-kilometers in 1993, growing at about 6% per year. Over 90% of the traffic was concentrated on the state highways. Average daily traffic densities are highest (over 20,000 vehicles per day) in the vicinity of large cities such as Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. E. Highway Design. Construction and Maintenance 2.18 Design, construction and maintenance functions for state and provincial roads are performed to satisfactory standards by or under the supervision of KGM. Road design standards are appropriate to traffic flows and physical characteristics. To avoid rapid deterioration of the network under conditions of strict budgetary constraints, KGM has felt necessary to spread its resources thinly over the network. The practice of engaging in shortcycles of surface treatment - 16 - and postponing the more expensive, but economically justified pavement strengthening, contributes to the apparently good condition of the network but masks the build-up of the backlog in road strengthening. 2.19 In 1980, about 25% of construction work was carried out by contract, this has increased to 70% by 1994 and the long term target is 75%. For maintenance works, over 30% is now also done by contract. Force account operations have been greatly reduced in the western and coastal areas, with the 75% target already achieved in the Istanbul and Izmir regions. KGM's force account operations and training have proved beneficial to the economy by providing trained personnel for the construction industry. KGM remains the primary source of trained highway personnel in the country with a fairly high turnover of professional and skilled staff from KGM to private contractors. The ongoing State and Provincial Road Project financed laboratory equipment for a new training center on the outskirts of Ankara, which offers courses to KGM staff, private sector and foreign personnel. Its performance has been good but, because of across-the-board budget cuts, the center remains largely underutilized. KGM is now evaluating the possibility of making the center available on a pay-back basis to other institutions for their training needs. 2.20 KGM's equipment fleet consisted of some 15,000 units in 1994 with a total purchase price value of US$600 million. About 25% of the trucks, 33% of the pickup trucks, and 78% of the tractors are over 16 years old. Over 90% of the snow removal equipment are under 10 years old. KGM is actively pursuing a policy of reducing the size and age structure of its fleet, consistent with its policy of reducing the role of force account work. Considerable modernization of the fleet was accomplished with financing under the Second Highway Project and the State and Provincial Roads project. The projects also helped KGM implement a computerized equipment management system to control the use of the fleet and spare parts. F. Highway Planning 2.21 Planning for the state and provincial roads is the responsibility of KGM, with virtually all the work carried out in house by the planning department. Methods for evaluating the economic feasibility of road investment projects have been developed by KGM on the basis of Bank models. In the early 1980s, the Bank's Road Analysis Model was used for project evaluation. KGM has also been utilizing parts of the Bank's Highway Design Model, particularly its vehicle operating cost module. Projects are analyzed and ranked according to their economic rate of returns. This approach is satisfactory and places KGM with the capability for using a country-wide approach to investment planning . There are far more economically justified projects than resources available to carry them out. KGM had a tendency to start too many projects at the same time and, due to lack of funds, extend their execution over too many years, a practice that considerably increases the costs of the works. 2.22 The concept of pavement management was introduced to KGM by the Second Highway Project and some experimental sections of highway were built on the Ankara-Izmir road. The ongoing State and Provincial Road Project has assisted KGM to further develop and refine its planning process by introducing a more formal pavement management system (PMS). The project financed the purchase of special equipment to monitor road conditions, and store and analyze large database, which is needed for a fully developed computerized PMS. The first phase of the development of PMS is in the process of being completed and parameters for road deterioration are being calibrated for local conditions. The next step will integrate physical and financial aspects of the system with a sub-routine for economic evaluation of different road - 17 - interventions. The proposed project will continue to support the second phase of the design and implementation of PMS (para. 3.12). Once the system is operational it should help KGM to make decisions based on economic criteria and life-long costs. G. Highway Expenditures 2.23 During the five-year period from 1983 to 1988 the expenditures on state and provincial roads declined in real terms by about 35%. However, the following five-year period from 1988 to 1993 experienced a sharp increase of expenditures on state and provincial roads, 148% in real terms (Chart 2-5). This spending surge occurred against the background of real GDP growing by about 5% per year, overall fiscal deficits rising from 4.8% in 1988 to 12.6% in 1993, and inflation averaging over 60% per year. The currency crisis that hit Turkey in early 1994 forced the Government to cut its real budgets across the board. As a result, expenditures on state and provincial roads were about US$677 million in 1994, a 44% drop from in real terms the 1993's peak. The real expenditures on rural roads have been largely following a trend similar to state and provincial roads over the period (Chart 2-5). Chart 2-5: EkpendRures on Stade. Rovincial & kxal Roads (in 1994 US$ nillion) 1,400 1,200 1,000 Exp's on State & Provincial Roads 800 600 400 200 Exp's on Rural Roads 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 2.24 Typically, about 15% of road expenditures in state and provincial roads is allocated for routine and winter maintenance that covers over 97% of the road network; 30% is used to add new bitumen surfacing to about 1,200 km of roads a year; 5% is spent on periodic resurfacing and strengthening an average of 7,300 km of roads a year, which keeps an effective resurfacing cycle of 6 years; and about 50% is used to provide surface treatment to about 2,100 km of gravel and earth roads a year. 2.25 Shortage of funds has prevented KGM from carrying out strengthening work adequately. The ten-year NTMP of 1983 recommended the laying of over 1,000 km per year of new asphaltic concrete (AC) surfacing to reinforce all roads with more than 500 heavy vehicles per day. However, only some 3,000 km of new AC pavement were laid out during the entire past 11 years, averaging about 250 km per year. The need for pavement strengthening is - 18 - becoming acute. Almost 10,000 km of state roads have an average traffic exceeding 2,000 vehicles per day, of which over 1,000 are heavy vehicles. All these roads are candidates for pavement strengthening including AC surfacing. At present, only 4,500 km of state roads have AC surfacing. 2.26 KGM's budget for 1995 remained far below its pre-1994 level as the Government continues its stabilization program. The expenditures on state and provincial roads were about US$600 million in 1995, 11 % less than the 1994 level. While routine road maintenance continued to cover over 97% of the network, the periodic resurfacing and strengthening covered only 6,300 km of roads, dropping from the previous year's 7,800 km. New bitumen surfacing -will add 620 km to the network, down from 1994's near 800 km and about half of the average 1,200 km. Surface treatment on gravel and earth roads was 1,090 km, also down from 1,914 km in 1994. 2.27 A tentative Highway Investment and Maintenance Program (HIMP) for the period 1996-2000 has been prepared by KGM (Table 2.1). The Program, based on the 1995 seventh Five-Year Investment Plan recently approved by Parliament, emphasizes the Government's priority of improving and strengthening existing roads and modernizing road links in which congestion has reached uneconomic levels. Routine and winter maintenance will continue to cover over 97% of the road network. Periodic resurfacing and strengthening work will be carried out on some 6,500 km of roads each year, giving an effective resurfacing cycle of 7 years. New bitumen surfacing will be added to about 1,350 km of roads each year. The program is a first attempt at the preparation of pluri-annual rolling expenditure plans, and together with the improvement in the analysis of the physical and financial relations of different activities discussed in para 2.3 should provide a solid basis for developing the current HIMP into a valuable programming tool. Annual reviews will emphasize the upgrading and updating of a rolling expenditure program (para 3.17). Also, during negotiations. agreement was reached that the Government shall maintain its policy of ensuring adequate balance between road improvement, rehabilitation and maintenance and ensure that road works included in the HIMP are economically viable and environmentally sound according to criteria satisfactory to the Bank (para 5.1 (a)). In addition, state roads to be financed out of the proceeds of the loan should be technically and environmentally sound and such state road works should have an estimated ERR of at least 12% (para 5.1 (b)). Also, the Borrower shall obtain the prior approval of the Bank for any road work to be financed out of the proceeds of the loan. such approval to be based. inter-alia. on an environmental analysis prepared in accordance to criteria satisfactory to the Bank, together with an evaluation of the MOEn of such road works (para. 5.1 (c)). - 19 - Table 2.1: Highway Investment and Maintenance Program (constant 1995 prices) Periodic New Pavement Resurfacing & Surfacing, Gravel Routine Surfacing Stren2thenin2 & Earth Roads Maintenance Total Year km bil TL km bil TL km bil TL km bil TL km bil TL 1996 1,350 6,486 6,500 2,112 5,493 16,000 59,832 1,365 73,175 25,963 1997 1,350 6,486 6,500 2,112 5,390 15,639 59,832 1,365 73,072 25,602 1998 1,350 6,486 6,500 2,112 5,670 16,444 59,832 1,365 73,352 26,407 1999 1,350 6,486 6,500 2,112 5,410 15,677 59,832 1,365 73,092 25,640 2000 1,350 6,486 6,500 2,112 5,220 15,068 59,832 1,365 72,902 25,031 H. Highway Financing 2.28 State, provincial and rural roads are financed primarily through the budget, while motorways have been financed from extra-budget funds and foreign borrowing. It is Government policy that road users shall pay the cost of roads by means of road user charges (RUC). The objective is to charge road users for the maintenance of the road system and the provision of road space in proportion to their needs or their impact. This more particularly applies to the main and secondary road system. Local and urban roads provide a different or specialized service which it is reasonable to expect to be financed through local taxes and charges. 2.29 In addition, Turkey is pursuing a policy of attracting private sector financing, mainly under the Build, Operate and Transfer scheme, to carry-out major financially attractive projects. That is the case of the bridges over the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles which are in the process of being awarded to Turkish-European joint ventures. 2.30 The present system of RUC in Turkey bears an adequate relationship to the maintenance and improvement needs of the network and the resource consumption of the various categories of road user. This is borne out by a 1995 KGM study which provides useful background information. The study estimates that light vehicle, bus and truck users contribute about 113%, 77% and 82% respectively of the estimated maintenance and construction costs for which they are accountable. Current road charges are adequate considering that externalities such as congestion and air pollution can be mainly attributed to light vehicles. The study also estimates that the total annual needs of the state, provincial, village and urban network in 1994 were TL41,000 billion compared with the TL32,660 billion actually spent (including the estimated expenditure on urban roads). Actual revenue during 1994 amounted to an estimated TL 43,656 billion. It should be noted, however, that urban and some village roads fulfil important functions other than serving traffic (for example, pedestrians, businesses, utilities) and the entire cost should not be borne by the road user. Annex 4 discusses the different taxes and duties levied on users and assesses the extent to which they are road use/vehicle related and can be considered as RUC. - 20 - 2.31 A comparison of the revenues and expenditures between 1989 and 1994 shows that the revenues have been growing faster than expenditures and by 1992 had surpassed the expenditures (Chart 2.6). It is expected that, even including estimated expenditure on urban roads, revenues will still exceed outlays in expanding and maintaining the system and providing extra resources for the general budget. Furthermore, in 1995 the standby agreement between the Government and the IMF caused fuel taxes to increase, which should lead to about a 60% increase over the 1994 revenues. hart 2-6: Road User Charges & Expndtures (corkstart 1994 US$ million] 1800 Road er Chages 1600 1400 1200 1000 / U ~~~~~~~~~~Expenditure 800 600 400 l l 89 90 91 92 93 94 I. Environmental Aspects 2.32 Turkey has in place a Framework Environment Law (Law No. 2872 of 1983) and regulations for the protection of the environment. Article 10 of the Law (passed in 1993) covers the specific requirements for Environmental Impact Assessments of development projects, including detailed regulations on preparation, public participation, review, and approval procedures. A regulation was approved in 1989 giving KGM the authority to introduce proper technical inspection of road vehicles, with adequate equipment to measure various technical parameters including vehicle emissions. A decision was made to let the private sector invest, build and operate the testing stations. Since then, KGM has built two testing stations, with the assistance of Germany, and is now seeking potentially interested private sector groups to operate the stations on an experimental basis. 2.33 Environmental Analysis (EA) in Turkey's highway sector is carried out by the - 21 - Environment Commission of KGM and is subsequently reviewed by the Ministry of Environment (MOEn). All road works require clearance from MOEn on the basis of its review of the EAs following extensive public participation. The proposed project would help to strengthen the existing capabilities for incorporating environmental concerns from project inception. Using the EA work required to keep the proposed project running, a training program will be provided for interested staff in the highway sector at large, and will involve in addition to MOEn and KGM, the universities, contractors and the consulting profession. The training program would concentrate on scoping, classification and clearance procedures; EA issues, study design and execution and reporting; and the design and incorporation into contract documents of mitigating measures. 2.34 The standards adopted for air emission control are those of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. These standards should be considered only as gradually achievable targets, since the average age of vehicles in Turkey is high and the quality of vehicle construction and maintenance and of fuel is lower than in other European countries. One of the immediate objectives is to reduce the sulphur content of diesel fuel; originally around 1%, it has been reduced to about 0.6%. Unleaded gasoline was introduced and a proposal to price it lower to promote its use is under consideration. New vehicles with engines larger than 1300cc are equipped with catalytic converters. By 1997, all new vehicles will be required to have catalytic converters. 2.35 KGM, which is responsible for preparing or supervising detailed design for road projects, applies acceptable design criteria for erosion control and drainage. Contractors are responsible for maintaining work sites pollution free and returning sites to their original conditions. The bidding documents contain these points specifically. In particular, they specify that asphalt plants be equipped with dust collectors. They also cover guidelines for the emissions of asphalt plants and crushers. III. THE PROJECT A. Project Origin 3.1 Preparation of the proposed project started in June 1994 following a request from Treasury for continued Bank assistance in improving and protecting past investments in the State and Provincial Road Networks. In particular, the Government sought Bank cooperation in implementing ongoing measures, some of them started under Loan 3324-TU, for improvements in road safety and road management. - 22 - B. Project Objectives 3.2 The project objectives include: (a) the reduction of road transport costs through infrastructure improvements and the protection of past investments in the highway sector through rehabilitation and strengthening of paved highways (b) the improvement of traffic safety in state and provincial roads; (c) the improvement of the operational efficiency of KGM through the implementation of management systems and computerization, and (d) improvement in the consideration of environmental factors in project selection and design. C. Project Description 3.3 The components of the proposed project are: (a) the road improvement program, comprising strengthening or upgrading of about 600 km of high priority state roads, about 300 km of rural (provincial) roads and town passages; (b) the road traffic safety program. involving i) civil and traffic engineering improvements to accident black spots; ii) a program to improve driver education; iii) provision of equipment to TTP and the medical hospital at GU; iv) extension of TTP's accident data base to other users; and v) provision of road safety materials for traffic management; and (c) the institutional development program, consisting in the introduction of various management systems and computerization throughout KGM and training of the staff of KGM in the areas of environmental analysis, road planning, construction and maintenance. State Road Rehabilitation. 3.4 Sections of state roads totalling some 600 km and associated bridges, will be rehabilitated or improved, including asphalt paving and geometric or capacity improvements where justified. The first year program includes the rehabilitation of the Ankara-Kirikkale road (78 km). Contingent to the submission of a satisfactory Environmental Analysis, the first year program will be expanded to include the improvement of the Ankara-Polatli- Sivrihisar road (para 3.6). 3.5 The Ankara-Kirikkale road plays an important role in linking Ankara with Northern, Eastern and South Eastern parts of Anatolia and serves the international traffic between Europe and the Eastern neighbors of Turkey; it also provides access to Kayseri, one of the most important trade and industry centers of Middle Anatolia. The Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) is about 12,000 with 60% of heavy vehicles. The pavement is in an advanced state of deterioration, requiring urgent attention. The total estimated cost of the proposed rehabilitation works is US$11.0 million and the estimated economic rate of return (ERR) is 25 %. - 23 - 3.6 The Ankara-Polatli-Sivrihisar road (132 km) provides the main link between Ankara and the West and South-West, connecting the capital with the second and third largest cities in Turkey: Bursa and Izmir. Traffic levels range from AADTs of 7000 to AADTs of 80,000 and congestion occurs frequently. The road is being upgraded to a two- way two-lane road with a surface type of asphalt concrete in order to bear heavy vehicle traffic. The estimated total cost of the proposed project is US$60 million and the estimated ERR's of investments in different road sections range from 17% to 34%. Contracts on four road sections for a total cost of US$12 million have already started, and once the Bank receives satisfactory evidence that these works are environmentally sound and any required mitigation measures are adequately provided for, eligible expenditures incurred after June 30, 1995 will be retroactively financed under the project. Improvement of Rural Roads 3.7 Selected road sections of KGM's provincial road network will be improved, mainly by provision of an all weather asphaltic surface. These roads are being selected from a list of about 300 links proposed by local interests. Screening and prioritization of the proposed works is being done on the basis of a multicriteria analysis, considering the existing traffic, as well as social factors such as the size of the population afforded all weather access for employment, evacuation of produce, and social integration. Upgrading of these roads is expected to contribute directly to alleviating poverty in the areas served (provincial roads generally serve as collectors for a tertiary network of village roads) and by improving access for social services. Geometric standards adopted will be the minimum necessary to provide access for most of the year, but in areas with heavy snowfall roads may still be closed to traffic in winter. During negotiations agreement was reached that works on provincial roads to be included in the proiect with AADT: (i? above 250 vehicles should have an ERR of at least 12%. (ii) between 150 and 250 vehicles should have an ERR of at least 10%: and (iii! below 150 vehicles should be have an ERR of at least 8% (para 5. 1(dD). The Road Traffic Safety Program 3.8 As part of project preparation, a working group comprising KGM, MOE, TTP, MOH and the University Hospital at GU prepared, with Treasury coordination, a comprehensive Road Traffic Safety Action Plan to be supported under the project (Annex 5). During negotiations agreement was reached that the Borrower shall carry out the Road Traffic Safety Action Plan on the basis of a timetable and targets included in said Plan (para. 5. 1 (e!!. 3.9 The proposed Action Plan consists of: (i) the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of safety measures on a pilot network of about 300 km, selected for high traffic accident levels (the Pilot Traffic Safety Project!, and (ii) a nationwide traffic safety program to be implemented in two phases (the National Traffic Safety Project). The pilot project, with an estimated total cost of US$ 6 million, will have as its main objective to test and gradually improve the capabilities of the different agencies responsible for formulation and implementation of measures for the improvement of accident black spots using an integrated approach involving several agencies. The pilot project will serve as a - 24 - vehicle to improve Turkey's capabilities to assess the possible impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative measures, which is necessary for the development of economic evaluation criteria for future investments in road safety. 3.10 The National Traffic Safety Project, as mentioned, will be implemented in two phases. The first phase will address the improvement of accident black spots with obvious priority, and implement measures such as the continuation of the national awareness campaign and safety education in schools, the enforcement of a points system for violators, and the improvement of medical response to traffic accidents. The second phase of the project will benefit from the experience gained and the statistical data gathered during the previous phase, and its design will aim at improving inter-institutional arrangements. Within the Action Plan, the project would finance: (a) improvements (signing, marking, geometric improvements to intersections, etc,) to sections of state roads running including those through small towns and villages, which have been identified as Accident Black Spots by statistical analysis of police records; (b) provision of road safety materials (modern signing, marking and guardrailing materials) for routine maintenance of traffic safety measures following the success of a similar component in the current loan. These materials would be in addition to the black spot program, and would not necessarily be used on the priority network; (c) traffic police equipment for enforcement of traffic regulations in the pilot network (radar speed meters, alcotesters, video cameras); (d) medical equipment to improve the emergency response of the University Hospital at Gazi University; (e) education equipment and literature for carrying out road safety campaigns in selected schools; and (f) technical assistance and training for the agencies involved in traffic safety covering design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of the pilot and national programs. 3.11 Implementation of the safety component is discussed in para 3.15. One particular aspect, coordination among the agencies responsible for implementing the Action Plan, is crucial to the success of the program. KGM has provided satisfactory coordination in the preparation of this component and heads the working group in charge of the Action Plan. Hence. during negotiations. agreement was reached that the Government should appoint a Task Force comprising representatives of KGM. TTP. MOE, MOH. and GU to - 25 - oversee the implementation of the Action Plan for Road Traffic Safety. Appointment of the Task Force will be a condition of disbursement of loan funds for the road traffic safety component (para 5.2). Institutional Development 3.12 Like any modem highway organization KGM is keen to introduce modem computer based management systems to improve control of its assets. A start was made under the on-going loan. The activities to be financed by the proposed loan are: (i) Computer Network. The loan will finance the continuation of ongoing work on upgrading KGM's existing capability and the installation of a KGM-wide client/server network, the computerization of various routine functions and the introduction of management systems; (ii) Pavement Management System (PMS). The loan will provide funds for: (a) an instrumented data logging vehicle to provide data on pavement surface condition and road geometry; (b) data collection by a specialized firm using its own instrumentation (to supplement data gathering using equipment financed under the ongoing loan); (c) continuation of the technical assistance started under the ongoing project for software creation, staff training and bringing the network- wide system on line. This program will be managed by KGM's Technical Research Department in close collaboration with the Planning Department, which will be responsible for the data logging vehicle. (iii) Bridge Management System. A Bridge Management System will be introduced by building on the existing computerized bridge inventory developed and maintained by KGM's Bridge Maintenance Department. The proposed loan will finance: (a) an advisor to recommend a list of existing systems suitable for adaptation to KGM's needs and Terms of Reference for the introduction of the system; (b) the acquisition of the system and necessary terminals (it is assumed that the basic hardware and KGM network will be provided by others); (c) technical assistance for the installation of the system and training of operations staff. - 26 - (iv) Training to strengthen KGM's capabilities for incorporating environmental concerns in project design and execution, and for road planning, construction and maintenance. D. Cost Estimates 3.13 The cost estimates are given in Table 3.1. The costs of civil works, including safety improvements, have been estimated from MOPWS's 1995 Schedule of Rates, published annually on January 1, with further details from contracts and safety installations in progress. Because of the program nature of much of the works, no physical contingencies are included for these items. Technical assistance costs are estimated from current rates in the region, and those for equipment from recent International Competitive Bidding (ICB) contracts under the current project, and consultations with manufacturers. Price contingencies have been included at 2.6 percent per annum throughout the disbursement period. The foreign exchange component for civil works is based on estimates of the direct and indirect foreign cost. E. Financing 3.14 The total cost of the project is estimated at US$389.3 million equivalent with a foreign exchange component of US$183.7 million (47%). The two loans for a total of US$250 million equivalent (the US$100 million single currency loan plus the US$150 million equivalent currency pool loan) would finance 100% of foreign costs and 32% of local costs for an aggregate amounting to 64% of total costs. The balance of about $140 million would be financed by the Government (Table 3.2). Retroactive financing of up to US$10 million (amounting to 4% of the loans total amount) will be used to finance eligible expenditures incurred after June 30, 1995. - 27 - TABLE 3.1: PROJECT COST ESTIMATE (US$ THOUSAND EQUIVALENT) BASE CONTIN- TOTAL TOTAL IBRD PROJECT COMPONENT COST GENCIES a/ COST IBRD % FOREIGN LOCAL b/ TRAFFlIC SAFETY PROGRAM Treatment of blackspots 40,000 2,135 42,135 26,637 63 17,275 24,860 Safety materials 20,000 1,067 21,067 21,067 100 18,961 2,106 Police equipment and enforcement 9,000 357 9,357 9,357 100 8,421 936 Medical equipment and services 2,700 107 2,807 2,807 100 2,526 281 Accident data bank 1,000 40 1,040 1,040 100 936 104 Technical assistance and training for monitoring, research 1,200 48 1,248 1,248 100 1,123 125 Driver and pedestrian education 1,200 47 1,247 1,247 100 1,060 187 Sub-total 75.100 3.801 78.901 63.403 80 50,302 28.599 ROAD REHABILITATION State roads 240,000 12,809 252,809 160,095 63 103,652 149,157 Provincial (rural) roads 22,000 1,174 23,174 0 0 9,501 13,673 Road design and EAs, 7,000 184 7,184 7,184 100 6,465 719 including training Town Passages 21,000 551 21,551 13,673 63 8,405 13,146 Sub-total 290,000 14,718 304,718 180.952 59 128,023 176,695 INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT Technical Assistance and training for management systems 2,500 66 2,566 2,566 100 2,437 129 Equipment and data collection services 3,000 79 3,079 3,079 100 2,925 154 Sub-total 5,500 145 5.645 5.645 100 5.362 283 GRAND TOTAL 370,600 18,664 389,264 250,000 64 183,687 205,577 a/ Price contingencies reflect anticipated changes in local and international prices of 2.6% per year. b/ Includes all local taxes, including the Value Added Tax of 20%. - 28 - TABLE 3.2: FINANCING PLAN (US$ Million) Foreign Local Total Government 139.3 139.3 IBRD 183.7 66.3 250.0 Total 183.7 205.6 389.3 (*) including taxes estimated at $24 million. F. Implementation, Monitoring and Auditing 3.15 KGM will be responsible for the implementation of the road improvement program, and the institutional development component. The Road Traffic Safety Task Force will be responsible for the overall implementation of the road traffic safety component with assistance, as necessary, of outside experts. Funds for the execution of the project will be allocated to each agency (KGM, TIP, MOE, MOH and GU) through the budgetary process. The Project Coordination unit in KGM is expected to have a leadership role in coordinating information from the different agencies on project accounts and project reporting. 3.16 Field supervision is expected to take place at least twice a year. Supervision missions at the appropriate point of the annual budget cycle would seek assurance of the adequacy of funding requested for each component which would be confirmed at the annual reviews. Because of the country-wide nature of the project, supervision requirements are expected to be about 20 staff weeks per year, including support from the Resident Mission in Ankara. As part of project supervision, the Bank and the Government will carry out annual reviews of project implementation. An outline of the agenda for the annual reviews is presented in para 3.17. In addition, an in-depth mid-term project implementation review will take place not later than November 1998 to take stock of project achievements and agree on any remedial actions as necessary. The Project Implementation Plan, including monitoring and evaluation parameters, is shown as Annex 6. During negotiations, agreement was reached on the scope of the annual and mid-term implementation reviews and the Project Implementation Plan (para 5.1 (fl). 3.17 Annual reviews, in November of each year, would consider progress in project implementation with particular focus on: (a) the evolution of the 1996 - 2000 HIMP, as it is revised annually to incorporate the recommendations of the 1996-2000 Highway Investment Plan; the physical and financial execution of the previous year program based on aggregated project data; and the proposed program for the subsequent year, including budgetary allocations; - 29 - (b) the progress made towards achieving the institutional objectives of the loan, as measured by the implementation of the different management systems; (c) the progress in carrying out the road traffic safety component, to be reviewed on the basis of the timetable and targets included in the Road Traffic Safety Action Plan; (d) the selection of further road sections to be financed and contracted on the basis of feasibility studies, environmental analyses, and progress reports prepared by KGM; (e) a bidding timetable for civil works to be bid on the following year; (f) the agreed allocation of funds for the coming year for each contract; (g) progress in commitment and disbursement of loan funds, to be assessed on the basis of the summary of expenditures and on the physical progress of subprojects. Monitoring project progress will eventually result in setting a cut-off date for approval of new contracts in order to ensure Bank participation until the finalization of road works started under the loan. (h) the experience of KGM in the execution of the contracts under the project to ensure that increases of contract value in real terms do not exceed the original value by more than 15%, or that extensions of the contract completion date do not bring that date to more than 12 months from the original completion date; and (i) the impact of the investments proposed for the following year on the Bank-Government cost sharing ratio, and implementation of the measures necessary to ensure that Bank financing remains within an adequate cost sharing ratio at all time. 3.18 Project Accounts and Auditing. KGM is an experienced borrower with a solid record of keeping good project accounts and presenting timely and satisfactory audit reports. During negotiations, agreement was reached that project accounts. the special account and statements of expenditure will be audited by external auditors acceptable to the Bank, and that audit reports for each financial year would be furnished to the Bank within six months of the end of the financial year (para 5.1 (g)). 3.19 Project reporting. The quality and comprehensiveness of KGM's reporting has improved under the ongoing project, and computing capabilities have been enhanced in hardware and human terms. During negotiations agreement was reached that KGM will prepare bi-annual reports summarizing progress in project implementation. main problems encountered in the execution of the proiect. and proposed remedial actions (para 5.1 (h)!. - 30 - G. Procurement 3.20 Procurement arrangements for the Bank-financed project elements, their estimated costs and proposed methods of procurement are summarized in Table 3.3 below. All goods and works to be financed from the Bank loans proceeds would be procured in accordance with the Bank's Guidelines for Procurement (January 1995), including amendments as of the loans signing date, using the Bank Standard Bidding Documents (SBD) for goods and for works. Consulting services would be procured in accordance with the Guidelines for the Use of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers and by the World Bank as Executing Agency (August 1981), including amendments as of the loans signing date. A procurement schedule giving contract numbers and sizes and thresholds for prior review is included in the Project Implementation Plan (Annex 6). 3.21 Civil Works. Major roadworks to the value of US$198 million will be procured through ICB. Works on town passages and traffic safety treatments of selected road sections or black spots, comprising up to 240 small and widely scattered works estimated to cost less than $4 million each and an aggregate amount of $55 million will be let through NCB, using procedures acceptable to the Bank. ICB contracts will be open to prequalified contractors, selected using the Bank's model form of questionnaire and advertized internationally. NCB contracts will be open to contractors either using the same method of prequalification, but advertized nationally, or using lists of contractors locally accepted and licensed annually for works up to a stated value by the Regional Directorates, the process to be approved by the Bank. NCB contracts will be bid in annual packages by the Regional Directorates (Annex 6). Works estimated to cost less than US$500,000 per contract and US$18 million or less in the aggregate, will be procured under unit rate or lump sum contracts awarded on the basis of bids obtained from at least three qualified domestic contractors in accordance to procedures acceptable to the Bank. 3.22 Goods. Materials (US$ 21 million) and equipment (US$13.5 million) to be financed from the loan would consist of safety materials (road signs and markings, guardrailing etc), computer hardware and software, radar speed meters, video cameras, alcotesters, equipment for the medical program and management systems, an instrumented vehicle for recording road condition data, and computer systems, and will be procured through ICB where appropriate. International Shopping (IS), based on comparison of price quotations solicited from at least three suppliers from at least two eligible countries, will be used for procurement of specialized items available from only a small number of suppliers, e.g. some Police equipment and instrumentation for the PMS, in contracts estimated to cost less than US$250,000, with an aggregate limit of US$2.1 million. Goods estimated to cost US$50,000 or less per contract and US$700,000 or less in the aggregate, will be procured under contracts awarded on the basis of national shopping procedures in accordance to the provisions of paragraphs 3.5 and 3.6 of the Bank Guidelines. Turkish manufacturers - 31 - competing for the supply of goods procured under ICB procedures and meeting the requirements under Annex 2 of the Guidelines will receive a preference in bid evaluation of 15 percent of the CIF price or the prevailing custom duty applicable to non-exempt importers, whichever is less. 3.23 Consultant services. An estimated US$7.2 million equivalent of consultant services for design of roadworks (including environmental assessments (EA) and training in EA for KGM's Environment Division) and the implementation of management systems in KGM, would be awarded following Bank Guidelines with short-listing. A further US$2.6 million, will be in the form of contracts to individual consultants (for traffic safety and management systems, monitoring and research) ranging from several weeks to 13 months in duration, also awarded in accordance with the Guidelines. A total of 10 consultancies is expected, totaling $12.2 million. 3.24 Country Procurement Assessment. A Country Procurement Assessment Report (CPAR), which was completed in 1985 is presently being updated and is expected to be finalized in June 1996. Laws and regulations regarding local procurement procedures and practices in Turkey were reviewed by the Bank in order to assess whether local procedures are acceptable for Bank-financed contracts. The findings of that review were discussed with Turkish authorities and agreement was reached regarding changes needed to make procedures acceptable to the Bank. 3.25 Review. All civil works contracts estimated to cost US$4,000,000 or more, the first two contracts for civil works estimated to cost more than US$500,000 but less than US$4,000,000 all other contracts for goods estimated to cost US$250,000 or more, and contracts for technical assistance and consultancy services estimated to cost US$100,000 or more for firms and US$50,000 or more for individuals will be subject to prior Bank review. This will result in prior review of about 85 percent of total procurement. Contracts for lesser amounts will be subject to ex-post review. Also, terms of reference for all technical assistance and consultancy contracts will be reviewed in advance by the Bank. KGM will promptly inform Bank staff regarding procurement plans, solicitations, proposed contract awards, and progress in the implementation of its procurement activities. Contracting and purchase actions will also be summarized in periodic reports prepared for the Bank by KGM. During negotiations agreement was reached on the procurement arrangements and bidding documents (para. 5.1 (i!!. - 32 - TABLE 3.3: SUMMARY OF PROPOSED PROCUREMENT ARRANGEMENTS (US $ thousand equivalent 1/) ICB NCB NBF OTHER TOTAL PROJECT ELEMENT 1. Civil Works Treatment of Black Spots 40.1 2.0 2/ 42.1 25.3 1.3 26.5 State Roads 197.8 55.0 0.0 252.8 125.6 34.7 0.0 160.3 Provincial (Rural) Roads 23.2 3/ 23.2 0.0 Town Passages 5.7 16.0 2/ 21.6 3.6 10.1 13.6 2. Equipment & Goods Safety Materials 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 Police equipment & Enforce. 8.7 0.7 4/ 9.4 8.7 0.7 9.4 Medical equipment & Services 2.1 0.7 4/ 2.8 2.1 0.7 2.8 Accident data bank 0.3 0.7 4/ 1.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 Equipment and data collection 2.4 0.7 4/ 3.1 services 2.4 0.7 3.1 3. Consultancies TA & training for monitoring, 1.2 5/ 1.2 research 1.2 1.2 Driver & Pedestrian Education 1.2 5/ 1.2 1.2 1.2 Road Design and EA 7.2 5/ 7.2 including training 7.2 7.2 TA and training for management 2.6 5 2.6 systems 2.6 2.6 GRAND TOTAL 279.4 55.0 23.2 33.0 389.3 189.0 34.7 0.0 26.4 250.0 1/ Amounts in italics are to be financed by the Bank loan. Costs include contingencies and taxes 2/ Small works (see loan agreement; Schedule 4) 3/ KGM contracting; not financed from loan 4/ International or local shopping 5 Through shortlist following consultants' Guidelines - 33 - H. Disbursement 3.26 The proceeds of the Bank loans for a total of US$250 million will be disbursed as follows:5' Currency Total Single Currency Pool US$ % of Expenditures to be Categorv Item US$ Million US$ Million Million Financed 1 Civil Works for: 63% a) Traffic Safety 8.8 13.2 22.0 b) Other 60.8 91.2 152.0 2 Equipment & 100% of foreign or 100% Material for: of local (ex-factory net of (a) Traffic Safety 16.4 24.6 41.0 taxes and duties) or 60% (b) Other 2.0 3.0 5.0 of items procured locally 3 Consultant Services for: (a) Traffic Safety 0.5 0.7 1.2 100% (b) Other 1.9 2.9 4.8 4 Unallocated 9.6 14.4 24.0 Total 100.0 150.0 250.0 3.27 Disbursements for civil works and goods with a value of US$2,000,000 or more and goods with a value of US$250,000 or more and contracts for services with a value of US$100,000 or more for consulting firms and US$50,000 or more for individual consultants would be fully documented. All other contracts would be disbursed against Statements of Expenditure (SOEs). The supporting documentation would be retained by the Project Coordination Unit in KGM and be made available for review by Bank supervision mission. To facilitate payments from the loans, a Special Account will be established at the Central Bank for the US$100 million single currency loan, which will be drawn first. The account will have a maximum size of US$8 million, referred to in the Loan Agreement as the Authorized Allocation, but until the pace of activity on the project justifies a balance of The total disbursements for each category have been allocated proportionally between the single currency loan and the currency pool loan. Since the single currency loan will be drawn first, flexibility in the reallocation of funds between different categories will be necessary to allow for the different pace of implementation of project components. - 34 - this size, defined as when the total of withdrawals from the Loan Account plus the value of any Special Commitments made against the Loan are equal to US$20 million, the maximum balance in the Special Account shall be US$4 million. Once the single currency loan is fully disbursed, a Second Special Account will be established at the Central Bank for the US$150 million equivalent currency pool loan. The account will have a maximum size of US$12 million, referred to in the Loan Agreement as the Authorized Allocation, but until the pace of activity on the project justifies a balance of this size, defined as when the total of withdrawals from the Loan Account plus the value of any Special Commitments made against the loan are equal to US$20 million, the maximum balance in the Special Account shall be US$6 million. Applications for replenishment of the special accounts would be submitted on a quarterly basis or when 1/3 of the amount deposited has been withdrawn, whichever occurs earlier. In addition to the documentation requirement stated above, each replenishment application would be supported by monthly bank statements of the Special Account which have been reconciled by the Project Coordinator's office. All other applications for direct payments or Special Commitments must be for an amount not less than 20% of the special account deposit. Retroactive financing in an amount not exceeding US$ 10.0 million would be provided under the single currency loan for certified expenditures incurred during the twelve-month period prior to the estimated date of Loan Signature, i.e., June 30, 1996. During negotiations, agreement was reached on the establishment of the Special Account and Disbursement arrangements (para. 5.1 i)}. 3.28 The project is expected to be substantially completed by September 30, 2002 and the Closing Date of the Bank Loans would be March 31, 2003. A Disbursement Schedule is shown in Annex 7. This schedule is consistent with the relevant historical profile for the Region, adjusted for the actual start date of construction. I. Environmental Impact 3.29 The project has been classified in Environmental Screening Category "B", requiring sub-projects environmental analyses consistent with OD 4.01. Moreover, given the nature of the project a satisfactory environmental control framework is needed for the sub-projects of the outer years. Accordingly, the Bank has examined the: (i) analysis of the environmental features of the road-works included in the first year program (Ankara- Kirikkale road); and (ii) availability and adequacy of the mechanism and capacity to satisfactorily assess and control potential environmental impacts of the roadworks which are not yet identified. 3.30 In line with the Environmental Impact Assessment Regulation requirements, preliminary environmental analysis of the first year program roadworks (consisting of an Initial Environmental Check-list and Evaluation Matrix (ICEM)) has been prepared by the KGM Environment Commission for each sub-project and submitted to the relevant Provincial Organization. Review of the preliminary analysis indicates that there are no negative - 35 - environmental impacts, or any resettlement issues expected from the first year roadworks. The environmental, analyses of roadworks beyond the first year program and their evaluation by MOEn, will be submitted to the Bank for review before approval of the future roadwork to be financed by the loan. During negotiations, the government reconfirmed that no resettlement problems are expected to arise from the road works to be financed under the project. Annex 8 provides a summary of the analysis and recommendations to mitigate the possible impact of the road works under the project. 3.31 The existing legal and regulatory requirements for environmental impact assessment, the procedure and methodology followed in environmental screening and analysis by KGM, and the process of reviewing and evaluating the environmental analysis by the MOEn were found satisfactory. KGM's Environmental Commission is adequately staffed with well qualified staff to carry out the required environmental assessments. Its conversion into a full fledged Environmental Division (which has already been approved by the Council of Ministers) will strengthen its organizational authority and improve its operational capacity. In addition, the training program planned by the KGM Environmental Division will further improve its professional competence. - 36 - IV. ECONOMIC EVALUATION A. Benefits and Beneficiaries 4.1 The project's main quantifiable benefits are derived from the savings in transport costs, arising from the avoidance of further deterioration in the road network through the reduction in the substantial backlog of rehabilitation, and the improvement of key segments of the network. Benefits will be mostly in the form of reduced vehicle operating costs (VOC), i.e. lower fuel consumption, tire wear and general vehicle maintenance costs, time and wage savings. Also, the present value of road maintenance will be reduced by undertaking road strengthening now and avoiding more expensive reconstruction at a later date. Road maintenance expenditures will also decrease on newly paved provincial roads. The improvement of provincial roads will facilitate all weather access and transport in predominantly rural areas, which are presently isolated by the poor conditions of existing roads. 4.2 The road safety component will contribute to the reduction of accidents, but only benefits related to the black spot program have been quantified. It is more difficult to attribute monetary values to the benefits arising from improved education, medical response and police enforcement but there is significant experience worldwide showing that such expenditures are very cost effective, if properly designed and integrated into a coherent program. In addition, road safety feasibility studies are conditioned by the availability of data of the appropriate kind and quality. KGM is in the process of introducing economic evaluations of hazardous road location improvements, a process that at the initial stage will focus on the introduction of objectives and methodologies but is expected to eventually result in cost-benefit analysis. Under the project, KGM seeks to establish a methodology that would provide objective assessments of which projects intended to improve road safety should be given priority. 4.3 KGM has developed with past Bank assistance, a satisfactory capability for carrying out economic evaluations of road projects. These evaluations will serve as the basis for the Bank's review of road subprojects proposed by KGM for financing under the loan. Annex 9 shows an example of a typical cost-benefit analysis prepared by KGM. 6' Traffic data is provided by a network of continuous counting stations, a one week nationwide annual count and ad hoc counts at the site. Traffic projections for the economic analysis of works on existing alignments are based on historic growth data and tested for different growth scenarios. Projects on new alignments, involving traffic generation and/or traffic diversion are subjected to a more detailed analysis of expected economic activity and origin and destination surveys. The Bank's Highway Design and Maintenance Model, Version III (HDM III) is used for the calculation of vehicle operating costs. The example tests the economic viability of the investments in Ankara-Kirikkale for a low traffic growth scenario. - 37 - B. Costs and Benefits 4.4 KGM has prepared feasibility studies for the road section financed under the first year of the project. All costs and benefits were calculated in constant 1994 prices, net of duties and taxes. Domestic distortions in the labor market, which is characterized by unemployment and binding minimum wages, were not taken into account in the analysis. (Since the main impact of wages is in the cost of the projects, using shadow wages would increase the economic returns of the proposed works). Historic data shows a traffic growth rate of about 10% per annum in the Ankara- Kirikkale road, as the main corridors in the network are experiencing above average traffic growth. For the purpose of estimating the economic merit of the proposed projects, traffic growth were assumed at 8% for the first five years, 5% for the subsequent five-year period and 3% thereafter. The proposed rehabilitation of Ankara-Kirikkale has estimated an ERR of 25 %. The sensitivity analysis shows that the works have robust ERRs even in the case that costs are 20% above original estimates, and traffic decreases by 20% (ERR of 18%) or in the case that completion of the works is delayed by two years (ERR of 21%) (Annex 10). 4.5 The selection of the improvements in the provincial road network was made from a list of candidate projects proposed by the different regional offices of KGM. The first selection was made on the basis of a multi-criteria analysis based on social importance of the proposed works (access to towns and public services, connectivity with primary and secondary network, etc), and in rough measures of costs and benefits: cost per km, level of traffic, etc. As a result of this screening process, KGM selected a list of roads that will be subjected to the same type of economic evaluation as state roads. 4.6 The economic evaluation of the improvement of black spots was carried out by KGM on the basis of the benefits derived from the reduction of traffic accidents. Alternative interventions (flyover junctions, guardrails, road widening, lighting, etc.) were considered in order to find the least cost solution to the target of an 80% reduction of accidents. The expected impact of different interventions were calculated on the basis of parameters used in Germany and the UK. As already mentioned, one of the objectives of KGM is to develop country specific data for future economic analysis. The cost of the different interventions were estimated for each black spot by KGM's Traffic Division on the basis of unit prices for recent contracts on similar works. Costs used for the economic evaluation are net of taxes. 4.7 In the without project case for the analysis of black spots, it was estimated that the number of accidents would increase at the same annual rate than traffic (i.e. 5%), which is considered to be a conservative hypothesis. Benefits were calculated on the basis of the monetary value of avoided accidents, that is, savings from reduced damages to vehicles (about US$1000 per accident) and savings from labor foregone due to injury or death. The cost of labor was estimated at about US$ 75 per month. Because of the high incidence of fatalities among young people, it was estimated that the labor lost amounted to 25 years per fatality. In the case of injury, it was estimated that 40% resulted in one month of foregone - 38 - labor, 30% in three months and 20% in six months. Annex 10 shows the ranking of the selected improvements in black spots, their cost and the estimated ERR for the proposed works, which range between 12% and 985%. These rates should be taken cautiously, as they reflect the potential merits of black spot improvements once drivers' behavior has been modified by enforcement of traffic safety regulations and education. Nevertheless, they represent a step forward in the objective selection of traffic safety measures and a cut off rate of 12% will be used to determine which interventions will be eligible for financing under the loan. C. Risks 4.8 The project poses no undue risks from an investment or environmental view, and KGM has a very good implementation record. The main risk concerns the possible failure of the Government to allocate sufficient budgetary funds for highway strengthening and rehabilitation programs because of macroeconomic constraints and the normal institutional and organizational risks associated with the establishment of a new integrated approach to address traffic safety. The project would incorporate a strong link between the programs and the annual budgets to mitigate risks related to funding. In particular, to avoid the possible atomization of investments in many projects with uncertain future funding, the pace of approval of new contracts will be contingent to satisfactory funding of works in the initial phase of the program. Also, the economic evaluation of projects to be financed under the loan, quantifies the economic impact of delays in project implementation due to shortage of funds; only projects estimated to be economically viable even when completed with possible delays, will be financed under the loan. Institutional risks are limited by the project focus on issues in which the Government has already demonstrated a strong interest and in which there is already solid progress. The coordination of the various agencies involved in traffic safety will pose a difficult institutional challenge, and in recognition of this the project proposes a gradual approach. V. AGREEMENTS AND RECOMMENDATION 5.1. During negotiations, agreement was reached from the Government: (a) to maintain its policy of ensuring adequate balance between road improvement, rehabilitation and maintenance, and ensure that road works included in the HIMP are economically feasible and environmentally sound according to criteria satisfactory to the Bank (para 2.27); (b) to ensure that state roads to be financed out of the proceeds of the loan should be technically and environmentally sound, and that such state road works should have an estimated ERR of at least 12% (para 2.27); - 39 - (c) to obtain the prior approval of the Bank for any road work to be financed out of the proceeds of the loan, such approval to be based, inter-alia on an environmental analysis prepared in accordance to criteria satisfactory to the Bank, together with an evaluation of the MOEn of such road works para. 2.27); (d) to ensure that works on provincial roads to be included in the project with an AADT; (i) above 250 vehicles should have an ERR of at least 12%; (ii) between 150 and 250 vehicles should have an ERR of at least 10% and (iii) below 150 vehicles should have an ERR of at least 8% (para 3.7); (e) to carry out the Road Traffic Safety Action Plan on the basis of a timetable and targets included in said Plan (para. 3.8); (f) on the scope of the Annual and mid-term Project Implementation Reviews and the Project Implementation Plan (paras 3.16); (g) to ensure that project accounts, the special account and statements of expenditure will be audited by external auditors acceptable to the Bank, and that audit reports for each financial year would be furnished to the Bank within six months of the end of the financial year (para 3.18); (h) to prepare bi-annual reports summarizing progress in project implementation, main problems encountered in the execution of the project, and proposed remedial actions (para. 3.19); (i) on procurement arrangements and bidding documents (para 3.25); and (j) on the establishment of the Special Account and disbursement arrangements (para 3.27); 5.2. Prior to disbursement of loan funds for the road safety component of the project, the Government should appoint a Road Safety Task Force, comprising representatives of KGM, the Traffic Police, the Ministries of Education and Health, and Gazi University to oversee the implementation of the Action Plan for Road Safety (para 3.11). 5.3. With the above conditions, the proposed project is suitable for a Bank loan of US dollar 100 million to the Republic of Turkey, repayable in seventeen years, including five years of grace, at the standard interest rate of LIBOR-based US dollar single currency loan, and a loan of US$150 million equivalent, repayable in seventeen years, including five years of grace, at the standard variable interest rate for currency pool loans. =V1mtJhid.f Max 24 1996 - 40 - Annex 1 Page 1 of 1 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND TRAFFIC SAFETY PROJECT PAST AND ONGOING OPERATIONS IN THE HIGHWAY SECTOR Loan No. Board |Loan Amount Project Project Purpose Status Commenb Date (USS mil) Name I I I 2137-TU 1982 71.1 First Rehabilitation and Completed PPAR found that the Highway strengthening of certain 1987 physical work was priority highway sections; imnpkmented satisfactorily, improvement of planning while the impact of and control systems of highway safety, vehicle KGM; and assistance to the loading, mnd KGM government's efforts to planning and control improve highway safety and capacity building control vehicle loading, components was limited. Actual ERRs were close to or higher than appraisal estimates. 2439-TU 1984 186.4 Second Rehabilitation of state Completed PCR concluded the project Highway highways; supply of road 1992 objectives were maintenance equipment; successfully achieved. and improvement of Delays were mainly due to planning and management disagreement over bidding capabilities of KGM. documents, lack of KGM funds and adding exta work to contracts. ERRs were lower than appraisal estimates because traffic was affected by regional military conflicts, and due to cost overruns. 3324-TU 1991 300.0 Stae and Ensuring adequate In Progress The project is progressing Provincial maintenance and reducing well, and is expected to be Roads the backlog of road completed on schedule strengthening; downsizing, despite budget constraints. modemization and improvement of KGM fleet management; strengthening KGM's planning capabilities; and improvement of the management and safety of the road system. Source: World Bank reports. - 41 - Annex 2 Page 1 of 4 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND TRAFFIC SAFETY PROJECT AXLE LOAD CONTROL Introduction 1. The legal axle load limit in Turkey is 13 tons on a single axle and 19 tons on a tandem axle. However, vehicle overloading is reported to be a serious problem leading to accelerated wear and tear of pavements and to road accidents. This not only applies to the KGM administered 60,000 km road network but also to rural roads (320,000 km) which are the responsibility of the Ministry of Rural Affairs infrastructure branch (KOY). Although there are few statistics on overloading, the results of sample weighings, carried out by KGM, indicate that on state and provincial roads about 30% of heavy commercial vehicles are overloaded; single axle loads of 20 to 22 tons (equivalent to about 52 standard axles) are not uncommon. Without a more detailed study than is available it is not possible to be precise about the economic benefits that would be derived from a successful axle load control program. However, using 1995 civil works costs for roads resealing and rehabilitation, and assuming that KGM's proposed program of 18 weigh-stations would control overloading on 10% of the state and provincial network, thus prolonging road life by 20%, an economic rate of return in excess of 80% would be expected. 2. Although these estimates must be treated with caution, largely because of uncertainties regarding reliability of the portable weighing equipment and skill of the operators, overloading is an important issue. The government has accepted this and stronger vehicle construction and use legislation is currently going through Parliament. Present fines and other penalties for contravening vehicle loading regulations are very low and present no real deterrent despite low profit margins. The new legislation increases the fines considerably but they are still relatively low and do not differentiate between the degrees of overloading. However, they represent an important step forward in KGM's efforts to fight overloading. 3. Currently there is a flat rate of TL210,000 (about US$5 in 1994) for freight overloading. The new legislation before Parliament proposes to increase the fine to TL2,736,00. Based on KGM's estimate that road deterioration made by one standard axle load (8.2 tons) amounts to TL160.73 per kIn, it is possible to compute the additional deterioration costs incurred by axle loads heavier than the legal limit of 13 tons. Chart A-1 illustrates the estimated average overloading costs incurred by one truck per day and compares them with the current and proposed fines. The calculation assumes that a truck has an average 4.21 axles and travels 80,000 km a year, with 300 working days and 50% of time empty. The chart shows that the proposed fine overcharges trucks with single axle load under 20 tons and underchages those over 20 tons. - 42 - Annex 2 Page 2 of 4 awt A-1: Ovw4mnig Costs i Fws Touuw iL) 6,000 5,000 Over-oadmg Cost 4,000 3,000 Proposed Rne 2.000 1,000 Curwnt Rn 0 I 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Tons Present Situation and Short-Term Actions 4. KGM currently has about 200 portable weigh-bridges but many of these are obsolete and unreliable or not in working order (an estimated US$100,000 is required to repair and recondition a minimum number). These are used by the Traffic Division, as the budget permits, to undertake spot weighings in different parts of the country but, with the limited resources available and low penalties, there is little or no impact on the overloading. A weighing "program" also requires strong police support in the field and this is difficult to arrange. There is almost no control on village roads. 5. KGM made proposals to install about 50 fixed weigh stations at an estimated cost, including equipment, buildings, utilities and civil works, of US$400,000 each. The actual number, as well as the locations of the stations, should await the outcome of a study being undertaken by KGM). An associated problem is the acquisition of land for the sites which can be a contentious issue. Because of these problems, KGM decided to undertake a program of weigh station construction in two or more phases. The first phase would be limited to 18 weigh stations located at obvious sites and on land already owned by KGM. The Government is planning this first phase, costing approximately US$9.0 million, with its own resources. Seven specialist companies have been prequalified to bid for this work. - 43 - Annexc 2 Page 3 of 4 6. The second and possibly subsequent phases will depend on the outcome of the study referred to above, and monitoring the experience with and results of the first phase of 18 permanent weigh-stations. However, it is expected that a more extensive system of weigh stations will be built which may also assist in monitoring and regulating axle and vehicle loads on village roads. Action Plan 7. The Phase I of the program to enhance axle load control requires a number of related actions to be taken. However, it is clear that unless the proposed construction and use legislation, currently under consideration by the Parliament, is passed with adequate inflation indexed penalties there is little prospect of having an impact on overloading. The actions proposed by KGM are concerned with establishing the scope of the issue, designing and implementing a solution and monitoring results and are described below: Proposed Actions: A. Using the most up-to-date traffic counts as a basis, prepare a sampling frame for vehicle weighing; B. Repair and test portable weighbridges and train operators; C. Review specifications for proposed permanent weigh-stations. It is important that the operation of these weigh-stations is made as tamper-proof as possible; D. Evaluate proposed weigh-station bidding procedures; E. Undertake a carefully supervised sample vehicle weighing program using portable weighbridges in order to assess the scope and importance of vehicle overloading - results should be in the form of axle loads and not total vehicle weight; F. In relation to available traffic data and site investigation, assess the adequacy of the proposed program of 18 permanent weigh-stations and amend as necessary; G. Make arrangements for and formalize police cooperation for the program of sample weighing and the eventual use of permanent weigh-stations.This should include investigating the possibility of having police permanently attached to the axle load control program; H. Assess other control methods such as, providing incentives for self-control by disseminating information on the long-run costs of overloading to the trucking industry and to the tax payers; creating incentives for the station operators to enforce the law by offering them a percentage of the fines collected; and encouraging participation of the insurance industry in controlling overloading through premier schemes; - 44 - Annex 2 Page 4 of 4 I. Based on the assessment, choose an appropriate set of enforcement methods, make arrangements with the organizations concerned), and establish monitoring and reporting procedures for the permanent weigh-stations; J. Procure equipment and contracting services for proposed additional weigh- stations and complete work; K. Monitor operation and results of stations and make recommendations regarding the extension of the program of permanent weigh-stations and other actions regarding the enforcement of vehicle construction and use regulations. - 45 - Annex 3 Page 1 of 7 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND TRAFFIC SAFETY PROJECT ROAD SAFETY Current Road Traffic and Safety 1. Road transport In Turkey is deregulated and both the trucking and bus industries are mainly privately owned. Transport companies, both domestic and international, vary greatly in size and competition between operators keep tariffs as well as profit margins low. 2. The number of registered motor vehicles had been growing at a rate of over 10% a year over the past ten years, reaching 4.4 million in 1993 (Table B-1). This growth rate was more than four times the population growth rate (2.2% p.a.) and two times the GDP growth rate (5.5%) during the same period. In 1983, there were 34 vehicles per 1000 people and 31 vehicles per one million GDP (in 1987 US$). By 1993, there were 73 vehicles per 1000 people and 49 vehicles per one million GDP (Chart B-1). Table B-1: Road Motor Vehicles (thousands) Mini Small Motor Special Road Year Car Bus Bus Truck Truck Cycle Vehicle Machines Total 1983 856 74 38 186 190 217 15 34 1,611 1984 919 81 44 198 198 256 16 39 1,752 1985 983 88 47 213 205 289 18 46 1,889 1986 1,087 98 51 225 217 327 19 51 2,075 1987 1,193 106 54 233 226 370 21 55 2,259 1988 1,310 113 56 241 234 421 23 58 2,457 1989 1,435 118 59 249 241 473 25 60 2,660 1990 1,650 125 64 263 257 532 27 63 2,981 1991 1,864 134 69 281 273 590 29 67 3,307 1992 2,181 145 76 308 287 655 31 72 3,756 1993 2,620 160 84 354 306 743 34 79 4,380 Annual Growth 11.8% 8.0% 8.3% 6.6% 4.9% 13.1% 8.5% 8.8% 10.5% Source: State Institute of Statistics - 46 - Annex 3 Page 2 of 7 Chat B-1: VeNcis, FPapLdain md GDP (GDP in oonstart 1987 US dollws) 80 70 Vehies per 60 sand 50 - 40- VeNcles per 30 Million GDP 20 l l l 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 3. Statistics show that traffic on state and provincial roads had increased from 17 billion vehicle-kilometers in 1983 to 31 billion vehicle-kilometers in 1993, growing at an average of about 6% per year (Chart B-2). About 90% of the traffic was concentrated on the state highways. (Annual growth rates of traffic above 10% in major road corridors are common). Average daily traffic densities are highest (over 20,000 vehicles per day) in the vicinity of large cities such as Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. Chart B-2: Traflic on State and Provircial Roads (million vehicle.kilometers) 36,000 30,000 25.000 20 .000 15 .000 10,000 5.000 0 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 - 47 - Annex 3 Page 3 of 7 awt B-B: Acciden. Ftalities and Irjuries per Milbon Veice-Kiomrters (mvkm) 36.00 30.00 atesl0 mvkm 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 Accd ntsJmvkm Injuries/ Vkm 5.00 0.00 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 4. Road accidents are a serious social-economic problem in Turkey. In 1993, about 210,000 accidents were reported by police, there were 6,500 deaths and 104,000 injuries (Table B-2). From 1983 to 1993, the number of accidents had been growing at an average 14% per year, more than twice the growth rate of vehicle-kilometers (6%). Accidents per million vehicle-kilometers had more than doubled, from 3.2 in 1983 to 6.8 in 1993. The number of injuries has been increasing at about 9% per year, and the injuries per million vehicle-kilometers had risen from 2.5 in 1983 to 3.4 in 1993. Due to the introduction of air bags and seat belts in cars, the number of fatalities had increased by about 2% per year, and the fatalities per 100 million vehicle-kilometers had been falling, from 30 in 1983 to 21 in 1993 (Chart B-3). However, 21 is still about eight times the average of the European Community, which is 2.7. Table B-3 compares major road safety indicators of Turkey with those of Central Europe and European Community as a whole. 5. About 17% of the accidents happened on state and provincial roads, and 83% occurred on urban roads. However, about 50% of the deaths occurred on state and provincial roads. The shares of accidents and deaths that happened on state and provincial roads has been falling. Among the injured and killed in 1993, drivers represent about 30%, pedestrians about 30% and passengers about 40%. The most involved age group was between 20 - 40 years. 6. According to the results of a recent questionnaire among the leading responsible agencies for traffic safety in Turkey, the most severe problems of traffic safety are: (a) lack of traffic safety organization on the national level; (b) lack of coordinated action at the local level; (c) deficiency in traffic enforcement; (d) excessive speed; (e) deficient infrastructure; (f) helmets not worn; (g) deficiency in the judiciary system and penalties; and (h) deficiency in emergency services. - 48 - Annex 3 Page 4 of 7 Table B-2: Road Traffic Accidents Accidents Fatalities Injuries Year Total On On Per Total On On Per Total On on Per Urban S & P mvkm Urban S & P mvkm Urban S & P mvkm 1983 55,256 73% 27% 3.20 5,200 36% 64% 0.30 43,888 61% 39% 2.54 1984 60,705 74% 26% 3.38 5,684 43% 57% 0.32 49,234 63% 37% 2.74 1985 63,473 75% 25% 3.40 5,477 40% 60% 0.29 49,058 56% 44% 2.63 1986 92,468 79% 21% 4.44 7,278 44% 56% 0.35 71,445 60% 40% 3.43 1987 110,207 79% 21% 4.79 7,661 46% 54% 0.33 80,456 61% 39% 3.50 1988 107,651 80% 20% 4.38 6,848 48% 52% 0.28 79,243 62% 38% 3.23 1989 103,758 79% 21% 3.90 6,352 48% 53% 0.24 79,928 63% 37% 3.00 1990 115,295 80% 20% 4.26 6,317 49% 51% 0.23 87,668 63% 37% 3.24 1991 142,145 81% 19% 5.46 6,231 48% 53% 0.24 90,520 62% 38% 3.47 1992 171,741 83% 17% 6.02 6,214 49% 51% 0.22 94,824 63% 37% 3.33 1993 208,823 83% 17% 6.78 6,457 50% 50% 0.21 104,330 62% 38% 3.39 Annual Growth 14.2% 2.2% 9.0% Source: State Institute of Statistics. Table B-3: Averages of Road Safety Indicators Turkey, Central Europe (*) and European Community Major Safety Indicators Central European Turkey Europe Community Number of deaths per 172 157 108 million inhabitants Number of deaths per 909 357 1,474 million vehicles Number of deaths per 6.2 to 8.6 2.7 21 100 million vehicle- kilometers (*) Central Europe includes Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Czech Republic and Slovakia. Source: General Directorate of Highways of Turkey Road Safety Organization and Funding 7. In Turkey, like the situation in other countries, road safety involves several Government Ministries including Interior, Transport, Public Works and Settlements (KGM), Health, and Education. The institutional setting for road safety is inadequate to ensure the coordination of the varous agencies. The three main agencies in the traffic safety area are; KGM, the Traffic Policy under the Ministry of the Interior, and the Ministry of Education. KGM's safety program mainly focuses on black-spot detection and control through a series of - 49 - Annex 3 Page 5 of 7 measures including signing, white lining, guardrail, pedestrian crossing, geometric improvements, etc. The Traffic Police enforces traffic regulations, collects and issues data on traffic accidents, and produces educational material for schools. The annual traffic safety week is also organized by the Traffic Police. The Ministry of Education is responsible for traffic safety education in all primary and secondary schools and the training and testing of all drivers. The licenses are issued by the police after being certified by the Ministry of Education. Public dissemination of traffic safety information is currently run by KGM and the Traffic Police, in cooperation with universities and expert consultants. 8. The existing road safety actions are financed through the budget of the above relevant Ministries. There is no coordination on the road safety funding and the total amount available for road safety is insufficient to satisfactorily tackle the problem. In addition to budget allocations, other sources of funding include motor vehicle insurance and traffic offense fines. The insurance market includes a state company and several private companies. The third party insurance is compulsory and the comprehensive insurance is optional. In 1993, total premiums for the third party insurance were US$197 million and the premiums for the comprehensive insurance were US$267 million. Currently there is a prevention fund of US$2.7 million, which is only 1.4% of the third party insurance premiums. By the end of August 1994, the traffic offense fines were approximately US$16 million. The fines are generally low and not inflation-indexed. Driver Education and Public Awareness 9. Road safety education is partly provided at pre-school level and it is compulsory in primary school. Elective traffic courses are available in secondary and high schools. Since 1992, a network of private driving schools has been set up around the country. Minimum driving age is 18 for private cars and 17 for motorcycles. The length of compulsory training required to obtain a driving license for private cars is 83 hours (35 hours for traffic and environment, 16 hours for machine and vehicle technique, 12 hours for emergency, and 20 hours for practice). Training is not provided in a systematic and coordinated manner and teachers are not properly trained on the subject. Teaching aids and material are often inadequate and out-of-date. Most teaching and training is of a technical nature and only little time is spent on training of safe behavior in traffic. The failure rates at the driving tests are around 5 to 10 %, which is low and suggests many candidates are not being properly tested. 10. The Government has realized the seriousness of the traffic safety problem and has initiated activities aiming at raising public awareness and changing aggressive driving behavior. Campaigns involving five short television films, ten radio spots, and 2,500 billboards have recently been organized by KGM to help the public understand that traffic accidents can happen to anybody at anytime, and to illustrate and explain traffic rules to drivers as well as pedestrians. A new road safety program specifically targeted at school children is in preparation. The Federation for Commercial Drivers has also started up special training courses to improve the skills of commercial drivers. - 50 - Annex 3 Page 6 of 7 Regulations, Checks and Penalties 11. Road safety rules are incorporated into a highway code which is compiled on the basis of legislation passed by the Parliament. In addition, conventions and agreements have been elaborated and implemented under the auspices of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, in particular: the 1968 Convention on Road Traffic and on Road Signs and Signals (the Vienna Convention), the 1971 European Agreement supplementing this convention, and the 1958 Agreement Concerning the Adoption of Uniform Conditions of Approval and Reciprocal Recognition for Motor Vehicle Equipment and Parts. 12. Three laws have a direct impact on driver behavior and are the most important from a safety point of view. They are speed limits, drinking and driving, and use of seat belts. Studies have found that the frequency of accidents varies according to the square of the average speed recorded, and the number of deaths varies according to the fourth power of the latter. It has also been shown that, for an alcohol level of 0.5 g/l, the risk is multiplied by 2, for 0.8 g/l, it is multiplied by 10, and for 1.2 g/l by a factor of 35. Studies have also concluded that front seat passengers wearing seat belts are 50% less likely to be killed than if they did not wear them. 13. In Turkey, the speed limit on motorways is 130 km/h, higher than the speed limits in Central Europe which range from 90 to 120 km/h. Speed limits on open country roads are 90 km/h and on urban areas 50 km/h. Regulations on drinking and driving are severe: alcohol is prohibited (permissible level is 0.0 g/l). In practice, however, up to 0.5 g/l is tolerated. Wearing seat belts is compulsory in front seats on all networks. Vehicles are also required to install seat belts in front seats. It was estimated that about 90% of people wear seat belts on highways and 60% do on urban roads. 14. The Traffic Police under the Ministry of the Interior have a wide range of responsibilities which gives them a central role in road safety matters. They are responsible for enforcing traffic rules, managing traffic flows, reacting to road accidents, assisting in emergency and first aid, making accident reports and maintaining the corresponding records. However, they are understaffed, with 12,500 officers averaging 2.8 officers per 1000 road vehicles and 15 officers per 1,000 square kilometers. In addition, inspection equipment is insufficient, old and obsolete, which is a major weakness in the road enforcement system. Thus it can be seen that checks are insufficiently frequent to reduce road accidents: speed checks are fairly rare, especially in urban areas, and seat belt checks are practically unknown. Road Infrastructure 15. Infrastructure design has a strong influence on the perception of the drivers, including their understanding of the way the road operates, and consequently their behavior. Depending on its design, a road may encourage people to drive too fast, or without the driver being consciously aware of it, cause him or her to drive more slowly. A well- designed access to a built-area is capable of slowing down speeds and creating more respect for other drivers and pedestrians, whereas, in the reverse situation, the motorist is likely to - 51 - Annex 3 Page 7 of 7 drive in much the same way as on the open highway. In addition, the standard of road maintenance, the shoulders, signs, guardrails, traffic lights, etc., all have a direct effect on the behavior of users. 16. Design, construction and maintenance functions for state and provincial roads are performed to satisfactory standards by or under the supervision of KGM. Road design standards are appropriate to traffic flows and physical characteristics. The proposed project will support the systematic adoption of safety audits, to integrate safety considerations at the design stage and avoid the increase of black spots. 17. In spite of the budget problems, KGM has given special importance to the road safety activities. The road marking program has covered an increasing amount of the networks, and the vertical signs and guardrails have also been improved. KGM's Traffic Division has carried out a black spot analysis and contracted out three black spot research projects to the selected universities. Data Collection 18. The collection and analysis of data on traffic accidents are fundamental to the design of roads. They are necessary to understand why and where accidents occur and helpful to perform cost/benefit analysis and identify appropriate safety measures. In Turkey, the accident reports, as filed by the Traffic Police, are compiled by a central computer at the Police Headquarters and are accessible through terminals at 29 police locations around the country. The database is extensive. It is published annually and shared with KGM, the universities and other bodies monthly by diskettes. Turkey also maintains databases on road traffic volumes and infrastructure conditions. But linking up the data on accidents, traffic, and road conditions is a problem. The major difficulty encountered by KGM is in evaluating accident reports filed by the Traffic Police. The accident report format was not properly designed and computer facilities and software are also inadequate. This issue will be addressed under the proposed project. - 52 - Annex 4 Page 1 of 10 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND TRAFFIC SAFETY PROJECT ROAD USER CHARGES Introduction 1. The principal objectives of road user charges (RUC) are (a) to ensure that there are sufficient resources to meet short/medium-run marginal costs of the road network, which are primarily routine and periodic maintenance; (b) to make a significant contribution to improvement and construction of the network; and (c) to meet the cost of repairs and construction according to the damaging effect or demand for road space of different categories of road user. However, RUC also serves an important economic function by promoting or deterring road transport. Their level, relative to the cost of using other transport modes also drives the modal mix, with important implications for the overall efficiency of transport services. In addition, since the different modes have different environmental impact, environmental externalities become relevant to the design of sound transport pricing policies. Hence, RUC must be set bearing in consideration both financial, economic, and environmental objectives. Although from an economic perspective it is arguable whether RUC should meet the entire cost of road improvement and construction, RUC should be designed so as to enable funding an adequate level of maintenance and construction, which is necessary to sustain a road transport system which will support economic and social activity in a cost-effective way. 2. Whilst there is little disagreement over the importance of these objectives there is considerable debate over the manner in which they should be managed and financed. There are two main schools of thought, earmarking certain revenues for use only on the road system (the road fund approach) and financing road maintenance and improvement from the general or development budgets. Many governments have rejected the road fund approach primarily on the grounds that it constrains governments on the use of revenues and may lead to a suboptimal allocation of resources. However, this reasoning is being reviewed within the context of "commercializing" all or part of the road network and there are a number of countries where a modified road fund system is being introduced. Turkey's approach is mainly to finance sector expenditures out of the general budget although there are certain funds (part of the fuel tax, proceeds of privatization and motorway and bridge tolls) which are specifically earmarked for certain road-works. At this stage, the Government is not considering any major change to this approach, a move that is unlikely to happen until a broader review of the taxation system and the organization of the road agencies is carried out. However, as a first step, it may be useful to consider defining very clearly those parts of the taxation system which are considered to be RUC. For example, the main tax paid by road users is on fuel and it would be useful if this were divided into a regular tax (eg VAT at 15 %) and a road user levy (the balance). This would enable the road users and authorities to see the relationship between what is paid by the user and what the user gets for this payment: a step towards commercialization of the road system. - 53 - Annex 4 Page 2 of 10 3. In addition to the physical objectives outlined above, financial and fiscal considerations also have to be given due weight. Among these is the need to support macro- economic strategy, especially focussing upon controlling public expenditure and making sure, as far as practicably possible, that efficiency of resource use is measured by the market pricing mechanism. This entails the collection and presentation of accurate and detailed data conceming expenditure on roads, and revenue received from road users. In Turkey, these data are difficult to obtain as the government accounting system is concemed more with controlling and monitoring cash flow than with the origin and application of funds. This issue is being addressed under the project, and reforms such as the introduction of special cost accounting are being considered as part of the development of PMS, in order to provide the necessary information for the design, introduction and monitoring of a charging system that will lead to the optimum use of revenues and cost effective road use. 4. Increasing attention is now being placed upon the environmental impact of roads and road traffic and the need for road users to pay for environment protection measures. However, although this subject is being actively discussed in Turkey, in common with more developed economies, an appropriate charging system has yet to be devised: physical controls through road works design or vehicle testing remain the most common environment protection method. The possibility of introducing vehicle design and fuel incentives or taxes to encourage environmentally acceptable road transport should be examined. Expenditure on the Road Network 5. Table C-1 shows the total expenditures on state, provincial and rural roads and motorways from 1983 to 1994. Excluding motorways, the total was TL26,271 billion in 1994 (US$897 million). KGM's 1995 budget is TL27,167 billion (US$700 million) and the expenditure on state and provincial roads are budgeted around TL23,644 billion (US$609 million) (Appendix C-1). 6. Very few data are available for the urban network. The total expenditures on urban roads were estimated by KGM as TL8,630 billion in 1994 (US$294 million). Thus, as a whole, a total of TL32,660 (US$1,114 million) were spent on state, provincial, rural and urban roads in 1994. 7. The motorway program, initiated by the Government in 1985, comprises about 1,660 km in the most heavy transport corridors of Turkey; namely from the Bulgarian border through Istanbul (including the Second Bosphorus bridge) to Ankara; in the South between Mersin and Iskenderun through Adana; and around Izmir. Most motorway sections have acceptable economic rate of returns and are financed by extra-budgetary funds and external borrowing. The investment increased from its initial US$500 million in 1987 to its peak of US$2.2 billion in 1992 and then declined to about US$440 million in 1994 (Table C-1). As of 1994, 1,167 km (70%) has been completed. 8. Prior to reviewing RUC it is pertinent to comment further upon the cost effectiveness of road maintenance, rehabilitation and improvement in Turkey. The level of - 54 - Annex 4 Page 3 of 10 maintenance on the state and provincial networks and village roads is generally good but records do not permit the analysis of cost effectiveness. This is important, not only in the case of the KGM routine maintenance and most of KOY's work which are undertaken by force account, but also work under contracts which are frequently delayed and lead to increased costs. The introduction of pavement/maintenance management systems supported by a cost accounting system to be financed under the proposed project is thus of considerable importance. If road users are expected to pay for less than efficient works this can only impact upon economic efficiency. Table C-1: Highway Expenditures 1983-1994 S & P Rural Total Motor Year Roads Roads -ways (Current TL billion) 1983 116 34 150 1984 180 45 225 1985 224 72 297 1986 273 94 367 1987 370 230 600 341 1988 558 225 783 765 1989 998 385 1,383 1,081 1990 1,777 704 2,481 2,571 1991 3,609 1,984 5,593 5,998 1992 6,063 3,067 9,131 14,089 1993 12,801 4,603 17,404 12,463 1994 19,839 6,432 26,271 12,800 (Constant 1994 US million) 1983 748 221 969 1984 687 172 859 1985 580 187 767 1986 533 184 717 1987 552 343 895 509 1988 483 195 678 662 1989 555 214 769 601 1990 772 306 1,078 1,117 1991 943 519 1,462 1,568 1992 936 474 1,410 2,175 1993 1,200 432 1,632 1,169 1994 677 220 897 437 Source: KGM, Ministry of Rural Affairs and State Planning Organization. 9. It is reported that vehicle overloading is a serious problem in Turkey, leading to increased maintenance and construction/rehabilitation costs. However, the actual incremental cost due to overloading is not known. Taking account of the generally well maintained standard of roads in Turkey, the costs involved are largely included in the figures in Table C-1; and to that extent required expenditures would decline were overloading to be better controlled. At the same time, if the authorities undertook a major road strengthening program to permit the operation of heavier vehicles, expenditures would need to rise. - 55 - Annex 4 Page 4 of 10 Pavement and maintenance management systems, such as are proposed under the project, should permit these trade-offs to be assessed and monitored. The Present System of Road User Charges 10. Simplicity, clarity and fairness are key requirements of taxation systems and this is equally true regarding RUC. The objective is to charge road users for the maintenance of the road system and the provision of road space in proportion to the costs (financial and non financial) that they impose to the economy. This more particularly applies to the main and secondary road system. Local and urban roads provide a different or specialized service which it is reasonable to expect to be financed through local taxes and charges. The taxes themselves should be related either to road access (e.g., annual license fee) or road use (eg tolls or fuel). Ideally RUC should be based on a fee calculated on vehicle size/weight and distance travelled: indeed such systems are being applied in some technologically advanced and relatively small countries and Turkey is in the process to develop the information base and know how to progressively move in this direction. 11. The present RUC system bears some direct relationship to the maintenance and improvement needs of the network and the resource consumption of the various categories of road user. This is borne out by a 1995 KGM study which provides useful background information. The study estimates that light vehicle, bus and truck users contribute about 113%, 77% and 82% respectively of the estimated maintenance and construction costs for which they are responsible: it also estimates that the total annual needs of the state, provincial, village and urban network in 1994 were TL41,000 billion compared with the TL32,660 billion actually spent (including the estimated expenditures on urban roads). The difference may be due to an exaggerated assumption of the need for state and provincial road upgrading and a recognition that rural roads need more maintenance and improvement resources. Actual revenue during 1994 amounted to an estimated TL43,656 billion (Table C- 2). It should be noted, however, that urban and some village roads fulfil important functions other than serving traffic (for example, pedestrians, businesses, utilities) and the entire cost should not be borne by the road user. 12. At present, some taxation rates need to be reviewed. For example, some vary inversely with vehicle age despite the fact that the older commercial vehicles tend to have greater damaging effect on roads than new modem vehicles. Also, the actual rates of tax are not appropriate to the type or size of vehicle - the highest rate of motor vehicle tax (vehicles exceeding 20 tons capacity) is only about US$166 per annum. The following taxes and duties are described and assessed as regards the extent to which they are road yse/vehicle related and can be considered as RUC. As from the 1st January, 1995 they are indexed to inflation. 13. Motor Vehicle Tax: This is charged annually according to the size and age of the vehicle, it is also calculated differently for domestically produced and imported vehicles. - 56 - Annex Page 5 of 10 Appendix C-2 gives the different rates, which range from (1994) TL1,054,000 (US$30) for a 1 - 6 year old car less than 950 kg to TL5,984,000 (US$166) for trucks over 20 tons. Trucks of 20 tons or more capacity and 7 - 15 years old have an annual tax of TL4,998,000 and over 15 years TL2,652,000. In principle this tax is a relevant RUC in the sense that it is a fee for entry to the road system but it requires reform in order to: (a) be simplified and unified for each category of vehicle with no adjustment according to age; (b) charge more realistic levels of tax, especially to reflect the damaging effect of different vehicle types; and (c) be the same for each size class irrespective of origin. (Part of this tax is earmarked: 11% for the maintenance of municipal roads and 19% for roads in urban areas that are not the responsibility of municipalities but form part of the state and provincial network). 13. Value Added Tax (VAT!: This is charged on new vehicles, tires and lubricating oil. The rate for cars is 23% and for trucks, buses, tires and lubricating oil 15%. As the average level of VAT in Turkey is 15%, the revenue derived from buses, trucks and tires should be classified as general revenue and only part of the tax levied from cars that are in excess of the VAT could be classified as RUC. However, even if the tax were to be adjusted accordingly there is no linkage with road access or use and, thus, VAT as whole should be excluded from RUC. 14. Motor Vehicle Purchase Tax: This tax is charged every time a vehicle changes hands and varies according to the size and age of the vehicle: there is no differentiation between domestic and imported vehicles (Appendix C-3). The tax ranges from TL2,380,000 (US$66) for a <950kg car over 9 years old to TL20,460,000 (US$568) for a > 20,000kg 1 year old lorry. Although this is a vehicle specific tax it is not road related and should be considered as general revenue and not a RUC. However, it is important to note of this tax that there is a 25% surcharge which is collected and allocated for use by the Ministry of the Environment: in 1994 this would have amounted to about US$30 million. The "additional vehicle purchase", equivalent to 6% of VAT, is no longer levied. 15. Customs Duty: Customs duties are levied as a percentage of the cif price of imported vehicles. The percentage ranges from 23 % for trucks to 60% for cars with an engine capacity over 2,000cc. This is considered a measure for raising general revenue and not a RUC. 16. Registration Fees: These include registration of vehicles, vehicle inspection, special operating permits and temporary traffic documents. Registration and vehicle inspection charges should not be classified as RUC but as payment for a specific service. On the other hand, registration fees and special operating permits (i.e., overweight vehicles) are road related and ought therefore to be defined as RUC. 17. Fuel Taxes: In March 1995 fuel taxes are levied by the refinery/oil company at the rates of 70% for gasoline and 58% for diesel. It is understood that these taxes will - 57 - Annex 4 Page 6 of 10 shortly be increased but full details are not yet available. These taxes are clearly road use related and reflect both access to the road system and road wear and tear. As a rule the larger and heavier a vehicle is the more fuel is consumed and more tax is paid. There is, nonetheless, a clear case of cross subsidization with the lighter vehicles paying for a greater share of road wear and tear than their impact warrants. It is also considered that only that amount of tax which exceeds the general level of VAT should be regarded as a road user charge and, in the following table, total fuel tax has been adjusted accordingly. 18. Road User Revenues: There is no central source of data on the amount of road user revenues collected and the Ministry of Finance, which is responsible for the collection, has difficulty in making this information available in a timely way. Furthermore, the motorway program and its financing is kept apart from the finance and planning of the rest of the road network and figures have not been made available. These are issues that should be addressed if information on revenues is to be available as part of the road network annual planning and budgeting process. The following table gives available information on RUC revenue by source, with the exception of motorways, for the period 1989 to 1994. Their totals are compared with the total expenditures obtained earlier from Table C-1 above. Table C-2: Revenues from Road User Charges And Comparison with Expenditures (current TL billion) Year Vehicle Traffic Fuel Total Total Rev/Exp Tax Fees Tax Rev Exp % 1989 134 23 797 954 1,383 69% 1990 329 47 1,486 1,862 2,481 75% 1991 539 67 2,878 3,484 5,593 62% 1992 1,020 130 8,219 9,369 9,131 103% 1993 2,078 244 15,532 17,854 17,404 103% (*) 1994 3,620 352 39,684 43,656 26,271 166% (*) Revenues for 1994 were to September 30 only. Source: Ministry of Finance and Treasure, adjusted by Mission. 19. A comparison of revenue and expenditure over the past six years in Table C-2 shows that revenues have been growing faster than expenditures and by 1992 surpassed the expenditures. And, it is expected that, even including estimated expenditure on urban roads, revenues will still exceed expenditure. Furthermore, as noted earlier, further increases in fuel taxes expected for 1995 should lead to about a 60% increase over the estimated 1994 full year revenue. Thus there is no issue regarding the adequacy of RUC in relation to current levels of expenditure on the road system. During the project implementation RUC will continue to be monitored, and the Bank and KGM will exchange views on measures toward improving the efficiency of RUC, with particular focus on: - 58 - Annex 4 Page 7 of 10 (a) systematic collection of statistics on actual and forecast levels of revenue derived from RUC should be made available to the planning authorities such as KGM, KOY and SPO in a timely way in order to gradually make it a required input into the planning process; (b) revision of the motor vehicle tax to ensure that the level of tax for each category of vehicle more accurately reflects the road damaging impact of particular classes of vehicle; (c) upgrading data on the cost effectiveness of maintenance and construction operations needs to ensure that the road users are not being effectively over-charged. This review which will become possible as the implementation of PMS progresses is particularly important regarding the force account operations of KGM (primarily routine maintenance) and KOY; (d) evaluating the financial impact on the transport industry of future tax increases over and above what is necessary to cover the costs of the road system must be examined. Typically, the industry operates on very small margins due to competition which could be reduced if taxes rise too much and small operators are driven out of the market; and (e) develop accounts in order to monitor the motorway program's economic and financial viability. - 59 - Annex 4 Page 8 of 10 Appendix C-1 General Directorate of Highways 1995 Budget (TL billion) Personnel Service Supply Equip. Constr. Others Total Total (*) (TL bil) (US$ mil) Management 14,808 75 90 6 14,980 386 Planning 376 51 43 - 27 498 13 Investment 354 587 358 6,722 704 8,726 225 Motorways 17 11 5 33 1 S. & P. Roads 207 413 74 6,137 29 6,859 177 Tourist Roads 9 249 258 7 Buildings 2 84 1 87 2 DSI Roads 248 248 6 Land Acquisition 644 644 17 Equipment 121 163 283 4 25 596 15 Maintenance 292 13 443 611 6 1,365 35 Transfers 157 157 4 Foreign Credits 54 385 1,003 1,441 37 Total 15,100 873 1,172 786 8,336 900 27,167 700 (*) 1 US$=38,801 TL. Source: KGM - 60 - Annex 4 Page 10 of 10 Appendix C-3 Vehicle Purchase Tax 1994 (*) (Thousand Turkish Lira) Vehicle Type Up to 1 year 2-3 years 4-5 years 6-8 years 9-11 years Cms up to 950 kg 9,560 6,380 4,780 3,180 2,380 951 - 1,200 kg 15,960 11,160 7,980 4,780 3,980 1,201 - 1,600 kg 22,340 15,960 11,160 7,180 5,580 1,601 - 1,800 kg 31,920 22,340 15,960 10,360 7,980 over 1,800 kg 38,300 28,720 20,740 14,360 9,560 Buses up to 15 seats 9,120 5,480 4,020 3,280 2,540 16 - 25 seats 10,960 7,300 5,100 3,640 2,920 26 - 35 seats 13,160 8,760 7,300 5,100 3,640 36 - 45 seats 16,800 11,680 10,220 7,300 5,100 over 45 seats 20,460 15,340 13,160 10,960 8,760 Trucks up to 1,500 kg 7,300 4,560 3,280 2,540 1,820 1,501 - 3,500 kg 9,120 5,480 4,020 3,280 2,540 3,500 - 5,000 kg 10,960 7,300 5,100 3,640 2,920 5,001 - 10,000 kg 14,460 8,760 8,040 6,580 4,380 10,000 - 20,000 kg 16,800 11,680 9,500 7,300 5,100 over 20,000 kg 20,460 15,340 13,160 10,960 8,760 (*) This tax is charged every time a vehicle changes hands. - 61 - Annex S page 1 of 3 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND TRAFFIC SAFETY PROJECT ROAD TRAFFIC SAFETY ACTION PLAN OBJECTIVES ACTIONS RESPONSIBILrTY DATES A. Develop and test an integrated approach to road safety through a Pilot Program Plan Pilot Program -Identify the pilot region where prograrm will TASK FORCE 11/96 - 12/96 be implemented - Retain Consultants to assist in the design and TASK FORCE implementation of the program. *complete TOR KGM 12/96 * prepare short list KGM 1/97 *issue letter of invitation KGM 1/97 *negotiate and sign contract KGM 3/97 - Carry-out an Accident Problem Analysis for TASK FORCE 3/97 - 6/97 pilot region (dedicated analysis for all roads in CONSULTANTS region) - Design traffic safety activities TASK FORCE 6/97 - 10/97 in pilot region (content and timing) CONSULTANTS *select countermeasures for the TASK FORCE 6/97 - 7/97 treatment of black-spots CONSULTANTS Oagree on police enforcement activities and present to the Bank a satisfactory program for training Trainees. *design local mass-media information TASK FORCE (MOE) campaign (road-user groups, TV/Radio, CONSULTANTS Posters, etc) 6/97 - 9/97 * agree on rescue service improvement TASK FORCE 6/97 - 8/97 program (staffing, equipment, service (GU,MOH) area, etc.) CONSULTANTS Plan and start-up monitoring -Design before-and-after studies (data TASK FORCE 6/97 -8/97 activities collection , sampling strategies, analysis, etc) CONSULTANTS - 62 - Annex 5 page 2 of 3 OBJECTIVES ACTIONS RESPONSIBILITY DATES -Carry-out base-line study of traffic safety TASK FORCE 9/97 - 12/97 conditions in pilot region CONSULTANTS Implement Pilot Road Safety *set-up coordinating procedures and TASK FORCE 11/97 Program in Pilot Region coordinate time-related activities of CONSULTANTS Pilot Project *implement the Black-spot program KGM 12/97 - 12/98 (carry-out activities leading to the completion of agreed countermeasures (civil works, signalization, etc.) *implement the agreed Police Program TTP (carry-out procurement of necessary equipment, staffing of units, etc) *put in place the Public Campaign for MOE Road Safety (retain consultants, mass- media and regional experts, etc) *implement the Rescue Service Program (procure ambulances and equipment, set-up stations and tele- GU, MOH network, etc.) Implement monitoring *procure equipment and carry out data KGM, TTP activities collection and analysis. CONSULTANTS Evaluate impact of pilot -Carry out 'after studies' (data collection, TASK FORCE 12/98 - 4/99 project analysis, evaluation of cost effectiveness of CONSULTANTS different interventions, etc) -Complete ex-post evaluation report with TASK FORCE 4/99 conclusions and recommendations. CONSULTANTS B. Implement the First -Carry out nation-wide countermeasures for KGM 1/97 - 12/98 Phase of the National Road improvement of high priority black spots at a Safety Program total cost not exceeding US$27 million -Implement the revised accident reports and TASK FORCE 1/97 - 12/98 establish a system for sharing relevant information across agencies -Carry out the agreed road safety training for MOE 1/97 - 12/98 school children in selected schools -Implement the nation-wide point system for TTP 1/97 onwards police enforcement -Carry out the health service improvement GU, MOH 1/97 onwards | _________________________ program I I - 63 - Annex 5 page 3 of 3 OBJECTIVES ACTIONS RESPONSIBILlTY DATES C. Monitor First Phase of -Set-up before and after studies of the TASK FORCE 1/97 - 3/97 the National Road Safety program CONSULTANTS Program -Prepare a report with conclusions and CONSULTANTS 1/99 - 3/99 recommendations covering all aspects (including legal, regulatory and institutional) that need to be addressed in the second Phase D. Design Second Phase of -Carry-out a mid-term review of the traffic TASK FORCE 6/99 the National Road Safety safety component of the project and agree on CONSULTANTS Program, including the scope of the Second Phase National WORLD BANK measures to raise the degree Program of awareness of stakeholders to address traffic safety. -On the basis of the preliminary results of the TASK FORCE WORLD 6/99 - 8/99 Pilot Project and the First Phase of the BANK National Program, define activities to be started and/or continued during the Second Phase of the Program, including: *preparation of proposals to improve TASK FORCE the legal, regulatory, and institutional CONSULTANTS framework of road safety *design of activities (workshops, TASK FORCE seminars, etc) to disseminate lessons CONSULTANTS leant in the Pilot and First Phase to relevant stakeholders (government officials, drivers associations, teachers groups, etc.) *improvements in data collection and TASK FORCE data analysis CONSULTANTS *continuation of the black spot TASK FORCE 9/99 onwards improvement program through CONSULTANTS countermeasures evaluated on the basis of experience gained in the Pilot and First Phase *revision, as necessary, of programs TASK FORCE for police enforcement, health services, CONSULTANTS education and mass-media campaigns. E. Implement second Phase -Carry-out the agreed Second Phase of the TASK FORCE 9/99 onwards of the National Road Traffic National Road Safety Program CONSULTANTS safety Program I_II_ - 64 - Annex 6 page 1 of 6 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND TRAFIC SAFETY PROJECT PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION PLAN EPoect Obectives 1. The project objectives are: (a) the reduction of road transport costs through infrastructure improvement and the protection of past investments in the highway sector through rehabilitation and strengthening of paved highways (b) the improvement of traffic safety in state and provincial roads; and (c) the improvement of the operational efficiency of KGM through the implementation of management systems, computarization, and environmental analysis of road works. 2. The project comprises: (a) the road improvement program, comprising strengthening or upgrading of about 600 km of high priority state roads, about 300 km of rural (provincial) roads and town passages; (b) the traffic safety program, ments to accident black spots; ii) improvements to driver education; iii) provision of equipment to TTP and the Ministry of Health; iv) extension of TTP's accident data base to other users; and v) provision of road safety materials; and (c) the institutional development program, consisting in the introduction of various management systems, computarization throughout KGM and training of the staff of the Environmental Division in KGM. 3. KGM will be responsible for the implementation of the road improvement program, and the institutional development component. The Road Traffic Safety Task Force will be responsible for the overall implementation of the road safety component with assistance, as necessary, of outside experts. Funds for the execution of the project will be allocated to each agency (KGM, Traffic Police, Ministries of Education and Gazi University through the - 65 - Annex 6 page 2 of 6 budgetary process. The Project Coordination unit in KGM is expected to have a leadership role in coordinating information from the different agencies on project accounts and project reporting. 4. Project supervision is expected to take place at least twice a year. Supervision missions at the appropriate point of the annual budget cycle would seek assurance of the adequacy of funding requested for each component which would be confirmed at the annual reviews. Because of the country-wide nature of the project, supervision requirements are expected to be about 20 staff weeks per year, including support from the Resident Mission in Ankara. As part of project supervision, the Bank and the Government will carry out annual reviews of project implementation. An outline of the agenda for the annual reviews is presented in para 3.19 of the main text. In addition, an in-depth mid-term project implementation review will take place not later than November 1998 to take stock of project achievements and agree on any remedial actions as necessary. 5. The Project Implementation Plan is given in a series of tables attached to this annex and in the Road Traffic Safety Action Plan presented in Annex 5. Table 1 shows the tasks, the inter-relation one with another, and their timing. Table 2 provides the Procurement Schedule. The project cost table and disbursement schedule are given in the SAR in Tables 3.3 and 3.5 respectively. 6. Auditors will be appointed in late 1996, in time to prepare and submit a report on financial year 1996 prior to June 1997. 7. Feasibility Analyses, including the economic evaluations and environmental analysis of the first year program and projects to be elegible for financing in subsequent years will be entered in the Project File. 8. Monitoring for the road improvement and rehabilitation works and the establishment of the different road management systems will be the task of KGM through its Coordination Office. Quality and works progress will be monitores by KGM's resident engineers. The traffic safety component begins with an Action Plan with milestones. These milestones will serve as monitoring indicators. In addition the monitoring indicators attached to this Annex will serve to evaluate the impact of the road safety program. As the implementation of the program progresses and before and after studies are designed, the Action Plan might be updated to include additional monitoring indicators. Project Implementation Plan ID_ 1996 1997 1 98 _1999 2000 2001 0 ID Task Name Duratlon' Start Finish Apr| Jul | Oct Jan |Ap Jul Oct Jan I Apt I Jul O Od Jan Apr Ju Jn Jul J O Jan Apr Jul Oct 1 Project Start Od 518/96 5160 _/6 2 Negotlattons 1w 5196 5/110r P 3 Soard Presentation 0.2w C/20/98 6/20190 4 CIvl WoI o PrOa trmme 290.5w tvv 6 U t2/2T/Ot 6 1}lt'lirl ," t~irrWdfillU d,,'rl',111014s now o/i/on 7/261_ 6 invite and evaluate bids sow 91219a 10/24/97 7 award lexecute contrads 260w 1/3/97 12127/01 . I 5' 6 Traltic Salety Prografnme 185.6w 711196 1/20/00 - I 9 Black spot Campaign 166w 11/1/96 1120100 _ _ 10 prepare works contracts 12w i/11/116 1/2319i s 11 Invite and evaluate boda Ow 1/24197 3/Al97 12 award lexecute contrads I sow J/7197 11120_00 13 Otlher Components lew 7/1/9tJ 9/20/99 14 Institutional Development Prog 74w 1111196 4/2/98 16 preparerORsLOI ew 11/1/96 12112196 1S Invie & eveluale proposals t2w 12113/t6 31t/97 17 award A execute contract 6w 3/7/97 412198 lS Project Completion Ow 12127101 12127/01 Page I PROCUREMENT SCHEDULE 44 11 Prior '0 Item Review Method & Doc. Packaging/Review Comments x 'It Threshold aQ) oo0I9OO's "4 X Civil Works All 1) Works on State Roads *ICB SBDW (January 1995) with *About 20 individual contracs; oContracts bid and nunaged by ($195m) 4.0 KGM's modifications to Part 2 bid over 3 years, values $7-$15 Constmction Department, Ankara 2) Works on State roads million NCB, using procedures million; each subject to prior First bid Nov '96 incl. some black spots satisfactory to the Bank review. Project launch Nov '96 ($65m) GPN June '96 Small Works oUp to 120 contracts in each 3) Black spots ($12m) 500 *NCB using Bank-approved KGM category; valued between $0.3- 4) Town Passages ($22m) 500 document $l.0m to be bid in 3 annual packages in each RD. I Other Safety 5) Materials ($21m) 250 *ICB CSBD for Goods *Individual contracts after agreement on a generic version of the CSBD. Specification will be agreed individually. 6) Equipment ($16m) 250 *ICB through CSBD for goods; OAII specifications will be *Some specialist equipment may be IS for some specialized items. reviewed and first three contracts, IS,LS or SS. prior to bid. Medical & Police equipment will be packaged. 7) Consultants ($12m) 100 *Short list and RFP, January *Up to 10 contracts foreseen *PMS Consultant under Loan 3324 will (firms) 1996, LOI package & contract valued between $100,000-$I be retained. 5 contracts for road design form. million. No packaging. All TOR let in 1st and 2nd years 50 will be reviewed. 2 contracts for traffic safety (individuals) let in I x 2nd years Upto 3 others T.B.D. - 68 - Annex 6 page 5 of 6 TURKEY PROPOSED ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND SAFETY PROJECT SlUMMARY OF MONlTORING INDICATORS FOR THE ROAD SAFETY PROGRAM A. Black Spots Project Name No. Accidents No.Accidents ERR (ex-ante) EER (ex-post) (ex-ante) (ex-post; yearly figures) B. Police Enforcement in National Project 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Accident rate Fatality rate _ l Hours of control No. of rmes l No. of points No. of trained staff C. Health Pilot Program (140km) l ___________________ 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 No. of Fatalities No. of Injured No. of Hosp. Assisted _ _ Time of response to accident Morbidity rate after assistance - . . . .. Annex 6 - 69 - page 6 of 6 D. Education Targets ___________________I 1997 11998 I 1999 No. of scool teachers 200 400 600 (instructors) trained (Cumulative) No. of schools with 100 200 300 children road safety program (Cumulative) m:Amp\tur\monAit.ar - 70 - Annex 7 Page lof 1 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND TRAFFIC SAFETY PROJECT ESTIMATED SCHEDULE OF DISBURSEMENTS Cumulative Disbursements Bank Filscal Year Ouarter Ending US$ million 97 September 30, 1996 10.01 December 31, 1996 12.5 March 31, 1997 15.0 June 30, 1997 25.0 98 September 30, 1997 35.0 December 31, 1997 45.0 March 31, 1998 55.0 June 30, 1998 70.0 99 September 30, 1998 85.0 December 31, 1998 110.0 March 31, 1999 130.0 June 30, 1999 160.0 00 September 30, 1999 175.0 December 31, 1999 185.0 March 31, 2000 195.0 June 30, 2000 205.0 01 September 30, 2000 215.0 December 31, 2000 220.0 March 31, 2001 225.0 June 30, 2001 230.0 02 September 30, 2001 237.5 December 31, 2001 240.0 March 31, 2002 242.5 June 30, 2002 245.0 03 September 30, 2002 247.5 December 31, 2002 248.8 March 31, 2003 250.0 1/ Retroactive financing payment of US$ 10 million Source: Based on Standard Disbursement Profiles, Turkey, Transportation Sector, 1994. - 71 - Annex 8 page 1 of 5 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND TRAFFIC SAFETY PROJECT ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 1. The road rehabilitation program comprises the improvement and upgrading of about 600 km of heavily traveled state roads and 300 km of rural roads passing through various towns. Furthermore, the project includes a road traffic safety program that would encompass improvements in minimizing black spots responsible for accidents, providing driver's education training, providing equipment for Turkish Traffic Police and the Ministry of Health, reviewing Turkish police data base for identifying the causes of accidents and the development of cost effective measures to minimize them including the provision of road safety materials for traffic management. Road management would be strengthened by introducing various management systems including computerization of the General Directorate of Roads (KGM) and training for the environmental and safety staff in KGM. The institutional development program also includes pavement and bridge management and maintenance systems including training to address basic issues associated with environmental and safety aspects in project design and implementation. The total investments of the project is about 389.3 million dollars. However, only a few roads for rehabilitation and expansion have been identified yet. 2. The proposed rehabilitation project consists of various upgrading and rehabilitation of roads. Some of the roads are passing through populated areas. Traffic loads on some of these roads have been very heavy because of single lanes on each side. The rehabilitation project requires upgrading and expansion of existing roads where many businesses and residences are located close to the roads. This analysis covers the environmental impacts of a typical road rehabilitation project. 3. National Environmental Policy and Legal Framework. For the past few years, Turkey has made good progress towards the formulation of an environmental policy with the introduction of the "Environmental Law" which has become effective in 1983. According to the Environmental Law, Private or Government organizations should prepare Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) reports for the activities which might have an impact on the environment. Identification and assessment of all impacts and mitigation measures of all activities to minimize the impacts along with considerations of different alternatives should be addressed in the reports. Legal and administrative guidelines should be applied to address environmental concems. According to EIA regulation, all EIA should be completed and submitted to the regional organization of the Ministry of Environment 75 days prior to start the activities. - 72 - Annex 8 page 2 of 5 4. Identification of Environmental Impacts and Proposed Mitigation Measures. The proposed rehabilitation road project may have potential impacts due to construction, excavation, widening of roads, soil erosion, spilled materials, quarries, asphalt plants, encroachment with buildings and residential housing located on both sides of the roads, storm water drainage, impacts on flora and fauna, air and water pollution, emissions from construction equipment, noise pollution, impact on cultural heritage , issues related to land acquisition and resettlement, issues related to road safety, environmental monitoring and training etc. Comments on each individual issues have been addressed below. 6. Design Requirements. A number of environmental problems are normally addressed during the design and expansion of roads. Since the roads tentatively identified for expansion and rehabilitation are heavily used by trucks (over 40%), proper design requirements are very important. The design requirements should also consider the type of soil or clay used in road construction to minimize erosion. 5. There are two kinds on environmental impacts associated with this project; direct and indirect impacts. A. Direct Impacts: A. 1 Construction Related Activities. The major construction impacts come from clearing and grading of the roads. This will create the loss of vegetation cover, changes in the natural drainage systems and erosion. Precaution must be taken to minimize the impacts on environmental damage. Use of construction fences are suggested to minimize erosion. Old construction equipment might be very noisy and should be avoided in a large populated areas. New machinery comes with improved mufflers to reduce noise and improved combustion. In highly populated areas improved machineries and equipment are recommended to minimize noise level. Occasional spraying of water on the road will help to control dust emissions. During construction, proper drainage should be provided on both sides to minimize road cuts, erosion or land slides. A.2 Construction Camps. There will be construction camps at the site for workers. The pollution sources near construction camps are expected to be from air pollution emitting from asphalt plants, quarries and breakers, wastewater and solid wastes. Solid wastes generated during construction are composed of the wastes from the buildings, construction, machineries and garbage that need to be disposed off properly. A.3 Noise Reduction Control. A number of roads may have well established residential and business dwellings on both sides. During the widening of the road, these dwellings will be closer to the road than before. Noise barriers may be required by constructing a wall or trees in populated areas to minimize the noise impact on the people living on both sides of the road. - 73 - Annex 8 page 3 of 5 A.4 Quarry Plants. The environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) reports indicate the use of water scrubber to minimize dust emission in quarries plants. This might create a water pollution problem. The approach is reasonable if the water is recycled back to the plant with zero discharge. In some cases, the wastewater can not be discharged into municipal wastewater treatment facilities. It is suggested to consider the use of dry dust collection systems such as mechanical cyclones, bag houses or others in order to eliminate wastewater disposal problems. A.5 Asphalt Plants. The Environmental Impact Analysis reports prepared by the General Directorate of Highways indicates the use of wet scrubbers for asphalt plants. Before deciding on the type of scrubbers, fuel gas need to be analyzed for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons and particulate matters. It would also be worthwhile to evaluate the option between the wet and dry scrubbing systems such as mechanical cyclones. If it is found that mechanical cyclone can plug up due to the presence of heavy hydrocarbons, then a wet scrubber should be desirable to remove sulfur dioxides, hydrocarbons and particulate matters. The main problems with the wet scrubber is the production of wastewater that can contain hydrocarbons, sulfur dioxides and particulate matters and may not be easily disposed off in existing municipal facilities. The wastewater collection in a pond would be a reasonable way to provide the settlement of solids, which can be collected and disposed off properly and the wastewater is recycled back to the asphalt plant. Consideration of wet scrubbers with water zero discharge and a proper disposal of hydrocarbons would also be effective as proposed by the General Directorate of Highways. A.6 Air Pollution. The General Directorate of Highways has taken air quality data in the project regions. Measurements indicates the NOx concentration at 566 mg/m3, Carbon Dioxide concentration at 1080mg/m3, sulfur dioxide concentration at 27 mg/m3 and particulate matters at 93 mg/m3. All parameters are less than the threshold value established by the Government of Turkey. However, after improving the roads, traffic may increase and some of the components such as NOx and particulate matters may increase considerably. In order to minimize the pollution, mandatory tune up, inspection and NOx reduction program should also be considered. This can minimize the ground level ozone layer. A.7 Flora and Fauna. During construction, natural soil will be grazed from the surface and trees will be planted on both sides of the road. A number of flora species are listed in the Environmental Impact Assessment report. Consideration of wild life will be made in accordance with the wild life protection requirements of Turkey. A.8 An application will be made with the Ministry of Culture, General Directorate for the preservation of Culture, and natural heritage in order to assess the proposed road section within the existing Laws. Preliminary research indicates that throughout the routes there is no destruction of cultural heritage on several roads currently being considered for rehabilitation. - 74 - Annex 8 page 4 of 5 B. Indirect Impacts B. 1 Induced Development. After completion of the road expansion or highways, there could be future possibilities of road side development of commercial, industrial, and residential activities on each side of the highways. The Government of Turkey should establish a law to prevent the construction of buildings at least 50 meter away on both sides of the new highway. 7.0 Environmental Management, Monitoring and Training 7.1 In accordance with Turkish Government requirements, environmental analysis of each road should be conducted to identify key issues associated with the project and to develop mitigation measures to deal with negative aspects arising from the construction and improvements. A sample environmental mitigation plan has been developed and attached herewith. The General Directorate of Highways has taken some data on air pollution and found the current air pollution emissions are within the limits of the environmental requirements of Turkey. Some funds for monitoring the environmental requirements and the requirements of mitigation measures should be considered. Monitoring of maintenance requirements, traffic, planning and expansion will be carried out on a regular basis. 7.2 Second Phase of Road Development. The first year road program covers only a few roads. This is a small investment in comparison with the total investment. A separate environmental analysis of each road will be conducted before starting the construction so that environmental mitigation measures will be considered during the design and implementation of the project. 7.3 Road Safety. Analysis of road safety is done by the KGM to identify the causes of accidents and to develop mitigation measures. Information on accidents are being used to minimize blind spots and to improve safety aspects of the program. Mitigation measures will include more traffic signs, markings, proper intersection, layout, and the provision of road barriers. Safe driver's training, speed limits, vehicle inspection and other measures will be implemented to improve safety concerns of the people. Measures to improve worker safety during the road construction are to be addressed. 8. Training. The project provides environmental training to improve the quality of environmental assessment and to formulate an effective environmental management plan to address environmental concerns normally associated with existing and new roads. - 75 - Annex 8 page 5 of 5 POTENTIAL IMPACTS PROPOSED MITIGATION Construction Phase Excavation in the Bayindir Regular watering will be applied. Stone Quality will generate dust. Scrubbers will be used in the asphalt plants Asphalt preparation phase to reduce the pollutant emissions. Waste will generate dust and water produced in the scrubber will be hydrocarbon emissions. settled in a pond and the clear upper layer will be reused in the scrubber. Water will not be discharged in to a water body up to the end of the construction work. The final waste water will be treated with the suitable chemical processes according to its characteristics. Dust will be generated Lrom Wind direction will be taken in to the breaker. consideration to minimize dust emissions. Easily fluidized materials will not be stored for along periods, without coverage. Around 20000 m3 of water will Water is lost, no waste water is produced be used in the construction processes. Daily 5.5 ml of water will be Seepage pits designed according to the Water consumed in the field by the Pollution Control workers. Stone washing water (rarely Will be precipitated in sedimentation ponds applied). and reused as washing water. _ Noise generated in the quarry Limited work hours (8:00-20:00) and (explosions) announcements by radio spots. Noise level from machines in Limited work hours (6:00-22:00). construction site will be around 67.4 dBA, which is less than the Turkish Noise Level Standard of 75 dBA. ___ __ Excavation in the Quarry will With physical improvement and landscape create visual pollution. applications the quarry area will be rejoined to the nature. Solid wastes of construction machines are: - Tires Renewed and used, the ones that are not suitable for renewal are sold as scrap material. - Greasy Oakum (mop) Used as fuel in stoves. - Grease Precipitated in containers, upper layer is reused again, while the remaining part is used as fuel. Domestic and official solid Collected in containers and deoosited to the wastes. deoosition sites pointed out by the municipality. Noise from traffic Trees will be planted on both sides of the road. - 76 - Annex 9 Page 1 of 14 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND TRAFFIC SAFETY PROJECT EXAMPLE OF KGM'S ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF ROAD PROJECTS Ankara - Kirikkale road, due to its location, plays an important role in road network of Turkey. The connection of Ankara with Northem, Eastem and South-Eastem parts of Anatolia can be provided over this route. At Kirikkale Junction, traffic is diverted in two directions. Approximately, 1/4 of the total traffic follows the Kirsehir - Kayseri direction. As it is known, Kayseri is one of the most important trade and industry centers of Middle-Anatolia. In other direction traffic is again diverted in two directions at Samsun - Yozgat Junction: one of them reaches to the Black Sea cities and ports where the other one continues to the Eastem Borders of Turkey. Ankara - Kirikkale Road is a 26 meter-platform width and 2'2 dual carriage way state road. Deformations had occurred, the pavement had been damaged, and subsidence and cracks had occurred related to the end of the economic life because of the high rate of heavy vehicle traffic on the road under consideration. Because of these reasons, the feasibility studies have been done for the rehabilitation of the road. The Ankara-Kirikkale Road is 78 km in length and the type of the route of the road is rolling. The roughness factor is assumed to be 4.5 because of the end of the life of the pavement of the existing road. Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) is 11751 in 1994 and the ratio of heavy vehicles to total traffic is more than 60%. The reasons for high rate of heavy vehicle traffic are: i) the road serves the international traffic between Europe and Eastern neighbors of Turkey, ii) petroleum products which are obtained from Kirikkale Refinery are reached to the markets over this road. The feasibility study of the road has been studied according to the two different traffic scenarios so that IRR and B/C values have been calculated. The cost of the maintenance of the existing and the proposed roads have been determined with the connections to the Maintenance Department. Therefore, the period of maintenance is taken as 2 years for the existing road. It is assumed for the rehabilitated road that the wearing course and the binder course will be renewed 10 years after the road is opened to traffic. The vehicle operating costs (VOC) are calculated by using the HDM-VOC Program of the World Bank. As a result, the B/C and IRR values are calculated according to the different traffic scenarios and different costs. IL'~~~~ Ml - _|rM --- !# i<'-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 'EIE :1'IA ' II ERE ,}X \\\/ ,,)/ \X y MS \4_ /X ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--- DELE SINIRI 0 lICE MEPF1IZI lL 5H/ (\ " X > / * . --~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- ILO SlhlRI * KCIY VE p.IEVKILER t"S)^4~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1 -_ CVE EKSPRES e0I 0 Mau~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~05HR El1R \ . S F;~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~rWOE EBASLANGlC VF SONU Er I . Wl a i S Ee~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ITUP.ILU KAIA ONA1 rYS c laa Ke 1m tQ t 9 KoPu wKom %\ AS ;;W0 I4~~~~~EVELAN O8ILEMHE xO' 4Pe.q Ar *. 5: , > q 3-., .aO ~~~~~~~~IErELAN C)NEEI.IE .IC rL C, i.)T.F4Mi-i S~~ _. KGM - Planning Division Economic Analysis Section THE VARIATION OF VOC AQC9R-fNG TO QR9$ R Rt Q n k k a h J * 9<1 il. , "."'.;. - * I Roughness Car eur TrucK Tral!r.: ; VOC (T.K, ,r o_ 2 3302 30492 15206 26750 4 3579 31902 17288 29781 -30=. 6 3951 33807 19393 32938 25 lOO 8 4453 36353 21556 36179 f Cm 10 5119 39529 23760 39464 2 | _, 1I40oQ Car Y=225.4x+2728.4 R2=0.9716 Bus Y=1591.3x+23475 R2=0.9999 ,0 Truck Y=1068.8x+13028 R2=0.9997 Trailer Y=1 126.3x+27659 R2=0.976 a ','.;' L X ,' .,'Jj,,;.!,ir,e':l'lt'?aUg g '-'. ';''- '' ..'9 lo . hP., 4 A1: !,a) . Maintenance period (year) 2 10 _-;-! ° _ A / _ A / _ __ .; Inilial roughness (IRI) 4I 5 2 Roughness before maintenance . 8 8_______________ 8 Recommended roughness values for paved roads (IRI) ' ; j AC Smooth 2 A.0 A Conxb Reasonably Smiooth 4 OA _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Medium Rough 6 1 i , 4 , . 10 II 12 13 14 16 Rough 8 ..qar Very Rough 10 ._., Svuww: Aidmmiu Cu* oWI FuL. (MUU4). Slbi*w Vlsid OpwUito Cuo Wwk idau* In lcd Pq1uwr NoM:I4 0Q 0 fD X 0 Ih F GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF HIGHWAYS - PLANNING DIVISION ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROAD PROJECT I) GENERAL INFORMATION a. 1. SECTION NAME ANKARA - KIRIKKALE(EXISTING ROAD) b. 2. SECTION NAME: ANKARA - KIRIKKALE c. ANALYSIS DATE * Jul-95 d. TRAFFIC DATA YEAR: 1994 a. TRAFFIC SEGMENTS 1 f. ANALYSIS PERIOD : 15 g. INVESTMENT YEAR : 1996 II) ROAD INFORMATION PROJECT- 1 PROJECT -2 a. PROJECT LENGTH.(Km) ....... 78.000 78.000 b. ROUGHNESS - TERRAIN TYPE TERRAIN TYPE FLAT ROLLING MOUNTAINOUS ROUGHNESS FACTORS PROJ.-I PROJ.-2 PROJ.-I PROJ.-2 PROJ.-1 PROJ.-2 ASPH.CONCR. IN GOOD COND. 0.000 0.000 0.000 78.000 0.000 0.000 ASPH.CONCR.IN POOR COND. 0.000 0.000 78.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 SURFACE TREA.IN GOOD COND 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 SURFACE TREA.IN POOR COND 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 STABILIZED SURF.IN POOR CO 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 m >> I-h GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF HIGHWAYS - PLANNING DMSION 111) TRAFFIC INFORMATION (CORRIDOReDIVERTED+GENERATED) a. TRAFFIC DATA TRAFFIC DATA(A.A.D.T.) TRAILER TRAFFIC SEGMENTS Km. RATIO % CAR BUS TRUCK TRAILER HEAVY VEH. 78 9 6067 1117 4135 432 4567 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 78 9 6067 1117 4135 432 b. TRAFFIC ASSUMPTIONS TRAFFIC GROWTH RATES DIVERTED GENERATED FROM THE OPENING YEAR TRAFFIC TRAFFIC(%) CORRIDO -- VEHICLES % -'5 6-20 1> YEAR RATIO YEAR RATIO CAR 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 BUS 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 TRUCK 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 TRAILER 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 O O OO O O O O O O O~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~' O O O O O O O~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ O O O O O O O~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF HIfYS - PLANNING DMSION IV) COST INFORMATION a. MAINTENANCE COSTS MAINTENANCE COST (Million TL/Krn) MAINTENANCE TYPE PROJECT -1 PROJECT - 2 1. ROUTINE MAINTENANCE 109 75 2. WINTER MAINTENANCE 53 53 3. PERIODIC MAINTENANCE 625 1876 MAINTENANCE PERIOD(YEAR) 2 10 INITIAL DATE OF MAINTENANCE 1996 2000 b. CONSTRUCTION COSTS (million TL) CIVIL WORKS PROJECT -1 PROJECT-2 US S (Million) m _ _ . ~~~~~~.... .... -------_ 1. DESIGN 0 0 0.00 2. RIGHT OF WAY 0 0 0.00 3. STRUCTURES 0 0 0.00 4. EARTHWORKS 0 0 0.00 5. PAVEMENT 0 448430 10.68 TOTAL 0 448430 10.68 c. CONSTRUCTION YEARS (YEAR) 0 4 d. OTHER COSTS (Million TL) 0 0 YEAR OF THE OTHER COSTS 0 0 PERIOD OF THE COSTS(YEAR) 0 0 x 0 I-h GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF HIGHWAYS - PLANNING DIVISION e. CONSTRUCTION RATIO AND COST DISTRIBUTIONS PROJECT-1 PROJECT .2 YEARS C.RATIO DESIGN R.OF WAY STRUCTU. EARTHW. PAVEMEN YEARS C.RATIO DESIGN R.OF WAY STRUCTU. EARTHW. PAVEMENT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 I.YEAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.YEAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.YEAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.YEAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 000 0.00 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0400 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TOTAL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TOTAL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 ao X m 1h -4H GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF HIGHWAYS - PLANNING DIVISION V) TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE OF THE CORRIDOR CORRIDOR+DIVERTED*GENERATED TRAFFIC YEARS CAR BUS TRUCK TRAILER TOTAL CAR BUS TRUCK TRAILER TOTAL 1996 6436 1185 4387 458 12467 6436 1185 4387 458 12467 1997 6630 1221 4518 472 12841 6630 1221 4518 472 12841 1998 6828 1257 4654 486 13226 6828 1257 4654 486 13226 1999 7033 1295 4794 501 13623 7033 1295 4794 501 13623 2000 7244 1334 4937 516 14031 7244 1334 4937 516 14031 2001 7462 1374 5086 531 14452 7462 1374 6086 531 14452 2002 7685 1415 5238 547 14886 7685 1415 5238 547 14886 2003 7916 1457 5395 564 15332 7916 1457 5395 564 15332 2004 8154 1501 5557 581 15792 8154 1501 5557 581 15792 2005 8317 1531 5668 592 16108 8317 1531 5668 592 16108 2006 8483 1562 5782 604 16430 8483 1562 5782 804 16430 2007 8653 1593 5897 616 16759 8B53 1593 5897 616 16759 2008 8826 1625 6015 628 17094 8826 1625 6015 628 17094 2009 9002 1657 6135 641 17436 9002 1657 6135 641 17436 2010 9182 1691 6258 654 17785 9182 1591 6258 654 17765 2011 9366 1724 6383 667 18140 9366 1724 6383 867 18140 1 2012 9553 1759 6511 680 18503 9553 1759 6511 680 18503 c 2013 9744 1794 6641 694 18873 9744 1794 6641 694 18873 2014 9939 1830 6774 708 19251 9939 1830 6774 708 19251 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 I-a4:- GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF HIGHWAYS - PLANNING DIVISION VI) VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS (Million TL) PROJECT - 1 PROJECT - 2 YEARS CAR BUS TRUCK TRAILER TOTAL CAR BUS TRUCK TRAILER TOTAL 1996 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1997 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1998 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2000 691047 1167451 2196290 401660 4456447 681064 1157844 2137533 392839 4369280 2001 711778 1202474 2262179 413709 4590140 701496 1192579 2201659 404625 4500358 2002 733131 1238548 2330044 426121 4727844 722641 1228356 2267708 416763 4635369 2003 755125 1275705 2399945 438904 4869680 744217 1265207 2335740 429266 4774430 2004 777779 1313976 2471944 452072 5015770 766544 1303163 2405812 442144 4917663 2005 793335 1340255 2521383 461113 5116086 781875 1329226 2453928 450987 5016016 2006 809201 1367060 2571810 470335 5218407 797512 1355811 2503007 460007 5116337 2007 825385 1394402 2623246 479742 5322775 813463 1382927 2553067 469207 5218663 2008 841893 1422290 2675711 489337 5429231 829732 1410586 2604128 478591 5323037 2009 858731 1450736 2729226 499123 5537816 846327 1438797 2656211 488163 5429497 2010 875906 1479750 2783810 509106 5648572 863253 1467573 2709335 497926 5538087 2011 893424 1509345 2839486 519288 5761543 880518 1496925 2763521 507885 5648849 2012 911292 1539532 2896276 529674 5876774 898128 1526863 2818792 518042 5761826 2013 929518 1570323 2954202 540267 5994310 916091 1557401 2875168 528403 5877063 2014 948108 1601729 3013286 551073 6114196 934413 1588549 2932671 538971 5994604 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O O O O O O O O O O O~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~8 GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF HIGHWAYS - PLANNING DIVISION VIl) TOTAL MAINTENANCE AND CONSTRUCTION COSTS (Millio TL) PROJECT-1 PROJECT -2 YEARS MAINTEN. CONST. OTHER TOTAL MAINTEN. CONST. OTHER TOTAL 1996 12636 0 0 12636 0 8969 0 8969 1997 12636 0 0 12636 0 134529 0 134529 1998 61386 0 0 61386 0 134529 0 134529 1999 12636 0 0 12636 0 170403 0 170403 2000 61386 0 0 61386 9984 0 0 9984 2001 12636 0 0 12636 9984 0 0 9984 2002 61386 0 0 61386 9984 0 0 9984 2003 12636 0 0 12636 9984 0 0 9984 2004 61386 0 0 61386 9984 0 0 9984 2005 12636 0 0 12636 9984 0 0 9984 2006 61386 0 0 61386 9984 0 0 9984 2007 12636 0 0 12636 9984 0 0 9984 2008 61386 0 0 61386 9984 0 0 9984 2009 12636 0 0 12636 9984 0 0 9984 2010 61386 0 0 61386 156312 0 0 156312 2011 184964 0 0 12636 9984 0 0 9984 2012 61386 0 0 61386 9984 0 0 9984 2013 12636 0 0 12636 9984 0 0 9984 2014 61386 0 0 61386 9984 0 0 9984 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 a 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF HIGHWAYS - PLANNING DIVISION VIII) EVALUATION TABLE COSTS BENEFITS (PROJECTI-PROJECT2) PROJECT - 1 PROJECT - 2 ------ ------ *---- PROJECT2-PROJECT1 NET BENEFIT OF PROJECT-2 YEARS T.SAVING V.O.C MAINTE. TOTAL CONST. OTHER CONST. OTHER COST DIFFERENCE WITH RESPE TO PROJECTI 1996 0 0 0 0 0 0 8969 0 8969 -8969 1997 0 0 0 0 0 0 134529 0 134529 -134529 1998 0 0 0 0 0 0 134529 0 134529 -134529 1999 0 0 0 0 0 0 170403 0 170403 -170403 2000 0 87167 51402 138569 0 0 0 0 0 138569 2001 0 89782 2652 134631 0 0 0 0 0 134631 2002 0 92475 51402 246525 0 0 0 0 0 246525 2003 0 95250 2652 61707 0 0 0 0 0 81707 2004 0 98107 61402 153433 0 0 0 0 0 153433 2005 0 100069 2652 165765 0 0 0 0 0 165765 2006 0 102071 51402 48340 0 0 0 0 0 48340 2007 0 104112 2652 32844 0 0 0 0 0 32844 2008 0 106194 51402 135295 0 0 0 0 0 135295 2009 0 108318 2652 -118664 0 0 0 0 0 -118664 2010 0 110484 -94926 114995 0 0 0 0 0 114995 2011 0 112694 194948 304672 0 0 0 0 0 304672 2012 0 114948 51402 165201 0 0 0 0 0 165201 2013 0 117247 2652 180867 0 0 0 0 0 180867 2014 0 119592 51402 321680 0 0 0 0 0 321680 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O O O O O O O O O O O~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I, O O O O O O O O O O O~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF HIGHWAYS - PLANNING DIVISION IX) RESULTS OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DISCOUNT RATE % 15 INT.RATE OF RETURN (IRR): 0.2315 NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) 150140 Million T.L. BENEFIT/COST RATIO(BIC) 1.5083 NET BENEFIT/COST RATIO 0.5083 X) SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS NEW VALUES NPVS ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT DISCOUNT RATES TRAFFIC VARIATION --- # IRR B/C 10% 12% 15% 17% 20% 22% -25 0.1892 0.8348 226642 149898 67934 28979 -13299 -33627 -20 0.1981 0.8905 252616 171391 84375 42868 -2368 -24233 -15 0.2068 0.9462 278589 192884 100816 56757 8562 -14839 -10 0.2152 1.0018 304563 214376 117258 70646 19492 -5445 -5 0.2234 1.0575 330537 235869 133699 84535 30422 3950 0 0.2315 1.1131 356510 257362 150140 98424 41353 13344 5 0.2152 1.1688 382484 278855 166581 112312 52283 22738 10 0.2152 1.2244 408457 300347 183023 126201 63213 32132 15 0.2472 1.2801 434431 321840 199464 140090 74143 41526 20 0.2548 1.3358 460405 343333 215905 153979 85074 50921 25 0.2622 1.3914 486378 364825 232346 167868 96004 60315 30 0.2695 1.4471 512352 386318 248788 181757 106934 69709 35 0.2767 1.5027 538325 407811 265229 195646 117864 79103 40 0.2838 1.5584 564299 429304 281670 209535 128795 88497 ( X Fh - 88 - Annex 9 page 13 of 14 SENSlrrNY ANALYSIS OF ANKARA - KIRIKKALE ROAD TRAFFIC VALUES OF 1994 (AADT) CAR BUS TRUCK TRAILER TOTAL 6067 1117 4134 433 11751 TRAFFIC SCENARIO 1: 7> ->5 6 -10 11-> CAR 7 5 3 BUS 3 3 3 TRUCK 3 3 3 TRAILER | 3 | 3 3 RESULTS OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DISCOUNT RATE % 15 IRR 0.242 NPV 117055 Million TL B/C 1.5994 COST VARIATION % IRR BiC NPV (Million TL) 10% 15% 20% -10 0.2665 1.7771 438985 206595 83334 -5 0.2538 1.6835 422145 191825 70288 0 0.2420 1.5994 405306 177055 57241 5 0.2312 1.5232 388466 162285 44195 10 0.2212 1.454 371626 147514 31149 15 0.2119 1.3907 354786 132744 18102 20 0.2032 1.3328 337946 117974 5056 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND TRAFFIC SAFETY PROJECT ANKARA-KIRIKKALE-COST BENEFITS STREAMS pROJECT BENEFITS VEIIICLE OPERATING TOTAL NET NET NET YEAR COSTS MAINIENANCE PENEFITS INVESTMENTS 13EN-FITh tENFFITIV V1EN IYSt 1996 0 0 0 -8909 -8969 -10763 -8969 1997 0 0 0 -134529 -134529 -161435 -87892 1998 0 0 0 -134529 -134529 -161435 -87892 1999 0 0 0 -170403 -170403 -204484 -87892 2000 87167 51402 138569 0 138569 115474 -87892 2001 94140 2652 96792 0 96792 80660 -87892 2002 101672 51402 153074 0 153074 121561 153074 2003 109805 2652 112457 0 112457 93714 112457 2004 118590 51402 169992 0 169992 141660 169992 1 2005 128077 2652 130729 0 130729 108941 130729 m 2006 134481 51402 185883 0 185883 154902 185883 2007 141205 2652 143857 0 143857 119881 143857 2008 148265 51402 199667 0 199667 166389 199667 2009 155678 2652 158330 0 158330 131942 158330 2010 163462 -94962 68500 0 68500 67084 68500 2011 171635 194948 366583 0 366583 305486 366583 2012 176784 51402 228180 0 228180 190155 228186 2013 182008 2652 184740 0 184740 153950 184740 2014 107551 51402 230953 0 238953 199127 238953 2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 x _ IRR= 25% 18% 21% it otbowK Kh et krseedby 20% 5,,u benefis decreased by 20% 0 21 No bwwfh aoatsw ocreaseydn rdi esron% vIHa Nbeeiswitshatoyear delay Iprojet copeion. REPUBLIC OF TURKEY yrPRJC ROADIb~OVEMb1NT ANiD TRAFFIC SA.T FR EC BILACK( SPOT -ANALYSIS 'EVALUATION CONSTIWCIVION CUMI)LAT11V1 tiUMaiEN Of r foRnrY pnoflCr PR1OJECT NAME I Om5ioN TYPE OF WORK -COST COST- ACC..IDENTs _.inn IJC List "NO.'_____ 015 IS .") i 20 1luaIe5 4 Sgia;aln .. . . .04 19 048 . 11 05 11. 2 25 lsabutni 4fckf osncin5,0 7.2 . 3 11 64.4 3 40 Am3a~Iii7 ra~st,Ing Sinl10,470 0 1.005 . 22 741) 69. I 4 . 4 .aby20.100 . i66.95 237 59.1 40.7 5 . 4 3 CunwoovaD'iOIU ~ _Catkg - - 20.190 134.2a5 40 570 46.1 6 II enIc nY.Kzae .n510.667 -150.952 4 4141 317.2 7 "13 Musa- neg6l ..SgaI.ln .52.301 203.333' 85' 425 34.5 13 14.Sign~~~~~~~~ ~ alzll' 'nan '.13 206.476 4 363 10.9 9 -~~~ 51 Samsun.llavza ______7F~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ishig ~~20.952 ~227.428 ...292 22.1 _2 MrsnY_i ____ JncinCism on61.905 0933270 21.4 -D62 esnYnc 5 Judncion Conslruiilon 40-... 240 19. 11 60 ersi._enice SucoCflrUIfl52.381 341.714 4 12 __ 10 Doltv-. -- inaiznkn 1412 44.704 2'15 I19.7' 13 tO -ilurs-a ___e___4 ifaiSaloli7057 525.047 78 243 1. 1.1 Mc! e"IsIinIYencflIc -,5 -iu,ndkcfllonCofn-lIiu-cUlo-n- -- - 57.143 582.190 40 205 10.1 15 Polatl-Ankaa ~~~~~~~~~4 66as- nSi1aI 8-- 20 109 14,4 16 4" omm-Stjno~rl! 7 Signalizatioii47.143 655.523 iGiGO6 12.7 17 3- -oe Jntii 311be! ~ ~ I F y ~ L~~42O0 069.809 83 110 8.7 lo' 60 !s!anbul.-Iznhl I ;SlqnaizaIion 104.762. 1.014.571 Di 1011 _ 113 21 l1oIu-~ankm - - 4 Slqnializalioll. 10.6 1.119.333 55.- ~1. 20 3- Isla"nbulimil- I Dotublo Car.ConslS.. Signal. 104.762 i.284.095 _ 25 10 . 5.0 '21. 28 lsinilImnl ..f Slioulde 130.9l5? -I.in 1.415.0,17 46. 76 5.6 67 GC -ltiIl lan WI.. Signial.,.1_1C.os 209.524 1.624.571 37 71 5. 2 23 .'51 1lno3julI . LfCIO os.ilo 47.143 1.071.714 0 6(1 4.7 2?.4'..3. . . igna"'lizal ClON - - .. - .. 125.71 1.797.420 6 2 4.7 25 9 k~~~m.Ki,,hkalf~~ 4 fl1lolclsitcif 33.33 2.530.761 294 56 .1.26 26 3 Gte.rw .I CnslCimIao Illn 157.143. 2.607.004 49 5 4,0 21- 70 s;n11II' .J11cliofn Conistruclloit 261.905 2.949.009 - 46 55 4.1 20' 2'-'-1-liaI'l)''l-if1 lOverpaSs. CoIIs.ol C0111.1ane . 705.714 3.735.523. . .0 5 4.0 3 lywo:13ayal.. 9~~~~~~~~~5.230 3.830.761 40 40 2.11 30 Alyoruflandik ..3 Lane Widerding. Si nalizalion 36.667 3.067.420 9 35 2.2 Page IIC *1. I3BLACK SPOT ANALYSIS EVALUATION CONSTRUCTION CUmuLAIIVE NUMBER, Or PRIORITY PAOJECT, PROJECT NAME I DIVSION TYPE OF WORK __ COST COST ACCIDENTS Inn DJC LIST NO. US$ s (.%) 31 34 ~Adapazare-llendek -~F lyover Junc. 261.905 4,129.333 go 33 2.3 32 72.lIstanbul-Izi 'I (atrcrs. Overpass -314,286 4-443.619 -- 0 32. 33 32 Gebzo.lzrnit I Juncllon Cbn l.s Lighting 31428 4.5990 30 2.1 34 44 "ama.iviisr4 'Flashlng Signal 260 4.784.095 2 30 1.9 35 56 -Aas lstlgSga 20.952 4.8050147 8 27. 1.7 30 47 rmu-Sunguthi7 Gurral209.524 - 5.014.571 16 26 1.0 37..27 Gebze-lzm'l I Lane Widening, Lighling 523.810 5.538.381 59 21 1 38. 38 Afyn-.Sandikhi - 3 Junclion Coslucio 518.57 1 6056.952 2 3 1 711 .- .~~ *-bsman..y. --Ba 161-905 6.218.87g17 1 39 6 Osan ;.0he __ jVncFiLon Conislruclioni- -- 6.0 62887B 1 . 4 4U - V Asaray.~erelhk6~hiSL..a. 3 Junction C'onstructiton -20.4 6.831 712 4. B Isabl-z I Junction Construclionl- - - 7857 6.50 42 19 6 - . 42 - 1 An ara- Irikkale --4 Flyover Junclion -27610 93.212 -16 - 1.0 43 - 30 Ge_b_ze-Izmrn' I- Structure, Signalization - 314.286 _9.597.428 46 16 . 44 4 Ank ari.Krka l4el2e Jucto -3,195.238 12.792.666 209 16 1.0 45 40 ~Kulu-~ereffikIo~hisar 3 Junction_Construction 37.0 314515 15 11,0 46 3 Ankara-Kirikkale -- - 4 Flyover Junction - --923.- - 0 1-08.8 4- 14 0, 2 Ankara:KIrmkkale -. 4 Flyovef Jujnction 4 452.381 22.540.762 259 1 3 0.9 41 __ 7 Ankara-Kirikkale 4 Flyover Juniclion --. . 4,295.238 26.838.000, 246 12 0.8 18 _nkar.Kirkkale -- 4 Flyover Junclion .-- * 4M02105.- - o7 50 4l Kulu.~ereffiko~hisar 3 Junclion Construction 3 - 66.667 -29.690.762 --- . 51 69 islaribul-iZmi! I ~~~Lane Wide.. Junclion Consi. 523.810 30.214.572 113 1 0 ,6 37 Afyon-Saiididk!i Coso3lmigLn 46.9 30u6u0.76 9ut, 53 2 Ankara-Kmk~~~~~ali 4 F-lyovet Juriclion~~~~ 3 195.238 -33.876.000 57 5 0' 53 12 Arnkaira.Kirikktaie 4 - .y-v4-JFlyoven 2.750 000 -30.626.000 84' J 0,4 55 17 -. Anka,a-Glba~I -. - - 4 _Flyover Junc. 3.771.429, 40.397.429 ~ 57 -2 0.3 56 . _- ' IsabillIS 'junctlion Conslruclion -1.257.143 41.654.572 - 552 04 57 36 Afyon-SandikIl . -.Srcue 371.905 _42.026.477 3 0 0 58 . ~ ~- -. - _-"--I7'obeCfigway Consl._ _ 628.57 1 42.655.048 a 0.0 TOTAL 42.655.048 Page 2 0 H - 92 - Annex 11 Page 1 of 1 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY ROAD IMPROVEMENT AND TRAFFIC SAFETY PROIECT LIST OF DOCUMEENTS IN PROJECT E 1. Road User Cost and Road User Charges. KGM. February 1995 2. Road Safety in Turkey and Comparison with Central European Countries. KGM. October 1994. 3. First Aid Emergency Care in Traffic Accidents. Gazi University, Institute of Research and Prevention of Accidents. November 1994. 4. Economic Evaluation of the Rehabilitation of the Ankara-Kirikale Road. KGM. June 1995. 5. Economic Evaluation of the Modemization of the Ulukisla-Pozanti Road. KGM. June 1995. 6. Black Spot Analysis. KGM. June 1995 7. Procedures for Carrying Out Environmental Impact Assessments of Proposed Investments in Infrastructure. Ministry of Environment. August 1993. MAP SECTION 1P5RD 27396 ^tiGARIA ;' r.r.\n> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~B I a c k S e a >Ecfne .f K.r;Is-rl ;_:~~~~~~~~~~~~~~i t~~ ,Fnop ~~~GEORGIA 4r. ~ ~ ~ ~ 9 :*x N _ = L n f / T u clo&emulpozoV;r rn i Hkk I f .-f * L t * C i 0,+ 1:~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~H.p,- GR EC HSv nk _g >_Ezr f:9~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ = - --- .. @.i <>^ - , 411 lA9nttkyz;A- & ROAD IMPROVEMENTAND TRAFFIC SAFETY PROJECT~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~r -~. Znmr 'smnP0ri lnlAlrrFRTYA RGA M e di t er r n e n S a tm g SRIAN OAD EL AEITAIIN *'PROVICE CAITAL t Ord,,T * r - - ARAB REP. f19 NATIONAL CAPITAL .L POR15~~~~~~~~~~~~F. 7, K-10 10 20KLMIRSi- AI OD POIC ONAIS H ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~IE ROAD ~-ITRARMENALEUDRS rbe Lsundor 3>}teom:etesm sponecpe IMAGING Report No: 15011 TU Type: SAL