S DI[S USSION PAPE [ 25606 Systemic Shocks and Social Protection: Role and Effectiveness of Public Works Programs Kalanidhi Subbarao January 2003 WORLD BANK INSTITUTE Pro_ tion Prom-ting knowiedge and learning forabltr od T H E WO R L D B A N K  Social Safety Net Primer Series Systemic Shocks and Social Protection: Role and Effectiveness of Public Works Programs Kalanidhi Subbarao January 2003 WORLD BANK INSTITUTE ial Promotng knowledge and learning for a better world rot tion THE WORLD BANK The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent.  Social Safety Net Primer Series The World Bank Social Safety Nets Primer is intended to provide a practical resource for those engaged in the design and implementation of safety net programs around the world. Readers will find information on good practices for a variety of types of interventions, country contexts, themes and target groups, as well as current thinking of specialists and practitioners on the role of social safety nets in the broader development agenda. Primer papers are designed to reflect a high standard of quality as well as a degree of consensus among the World Bank safety nets team and general practitioners on good practice and policy. Primer topics are initially reviewed by a steering committee composed of both World Bank and outside specialists, and draft papers are subject to peer review for quality control. Yet the format of the series is flexible enough to reflect important developments in the field in a timely fashion. The primer series contributes to the teaching materials covered in the annual Social Safety Nets course offered in Washington DC as well as various other Bank-sponsored courses. 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Recent and Forthcoming Papers in the Safety Nets Primer as of August 20021 Theme Author Program Interventions Cash transfers Tabor Food related programs Rogers and Coates Price and tax subsidies Alderman Fee waivers in health Bitran and Giedion Fee waivers in housing Katsura and Romanik Public works Subbarao Micro credit and informal insurance Sharma and Morduch Cross-cutting Issues Overview Grosh, Blomquist and Ouerghi Institutions de Neubourg Targeting Coady, Grosh and Hoddinott Evaluation Blomquist Political Economy Graham Gender Ezemenari, Chaudhury and Owens Community Based Targeting Conning and Kevane Country Setting/Target Group Very Low Income Countries Smith and Subbarao Transition Economies Fox Non-contributory pensions Grosh and Schwarz 1. Papers may be added or deleted from the series from time to time  Abstract Public workfare programs have been important counter-cyclical program interventions in both developed and developing countries. In the developing world generally and in Africa and Asia particularly, public works programs have been significant policy instruments for mitigating the negative effects of climatic and systemic risks on poor farmers and unskilled and semi-skilled workers. The paper first discusses the rationale behind workfare programs in the context of social risk management and goes on to give an overview of workfare programs in Africa and Asia with respect to such design features as wage rates and labor intensity and to how they were selected and implemented. Using available estimates and evaluations, the evidence on whether these programs have achieved their goals and are cost-effective is presented. Finally, the paper concludes with summary lessons from experience. I Table of Contents I. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 II. R ationa e ....................................................................................................................... 3 1I. Conceptual Issues .................................................................................................... 4 IV. Design Features: Cross-Country Evidence ......................................................... 5 Design Features that Maximize Program Benefits to the Poor................6 Cost-effectiveness ..................... ..................14 Implementation Issues ...................................... ..... 17 V. Evaluation of Public Works Programs: Impacts on Poverty and Welfare ..... 21 Targeting Performance......................l...... ..............21 Social Gains ............................................ ......22 VI. How to Plan, Implement, and Evaluate Public Works Programs: A Synthesis. 23 R eferences ........................................................................................................................ 25 Boxes Box 1: What are the Key Design Features of a Good Public Works Program? ............... 14 Figures Figure 1: MEGS Labor Attendance ................................ ..... 8 Figure 2: The Seasonality of MEGS Employment ............................. 12 Figure 3: Designing and Implementing Public Works .......................... 23 Tables Table 1 a: Scale of Operations of Public Works Programs in Selected Countries: National Programs .................................................... 2 Table lb: Scale of Operations of Public Works Programs in Selected Countries: Programs Implemented under Social Investment Funds (midl980s to early 1990s). 2 Table 2: The Program Wage (PW), Minimum Wage (MNW),and Market Wage (MW) in Selected Countries ............................................. 7 Table 3: Public Works Projects in Western Cape, South Africa: Project Wages for Unskilled Labor ......................9....... ..................9 Table 4: Cost-effectiveness of Two Hypothetical Workfare Programs under Base Case Assumptions.................................................. 16 Table 5: Marginal Odds of Participation in India' Main Antipoverty Program in Rural Areas ...................................................... 22  Executive Summary Public works programs have been important counter-cyclical program interventions in developed as well as developing countries for many years. In the developing world generally and in Asia and Africa particularly, public works programs have significantly mitigated the negative effects of climatic risks on poor farmers and farm laborers. These programs typically provide unskilled manual workers with short-term employment on projects such as road construction and maintenance, irrigation infrastructure, reforestation, and soil conservation. This type of program has been used to counter climatic risks in several countries (for example, Bangladesh, India, Ethiopia, Kenya, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Tanzania, and Ghana); it was recently used as the main instrument to counter the financial risk-induced unemployment in Korea in 1997. Although known as "public" works programs, in several countries the actual implementation of these programs is being handled by small-scale private contractors, NGOs, or social funds. The rationale for public works programs rests on six considerations. First, the programs provide income transfers to poor households during critical times. Second, depending upon their timing, the programs also allow households to meet any consumption shortfalls they may experience during slack agricultural seasons or years. Third, well-designed workfare programs construct much-needed infrastructure and thus minimize the trade-off between public spending on income transfers versus public spending on development. Fourth, the durable assets that these programs create have the potential to generate second-round employment benefits as needed infrastructure is developed. Fifth, the programs can easily be targeted to specific geographic areas that have high unemployment and poverty rates. Finally, in many countries, this type of program has helped many small-scale private contractors to emerge and grow. The success of each program depends very much on its design features. The level of the wage rate is a critical design feature. Self-selection can be encouraged if the wage paid by the public works program is set at slightly below the market wage for unskilled labor. Cross-country experience reviewed in this chapter suggests that, although governments vary widely in their ability to set a wage rate that is consistent with self- selection, several countries have adopted innovative ways to set wages that promote self- selection. The way in which the wage is paid also influences the degree to which the program is targeted to the poor generally and to women in particular. In some African countries, women favored task-based wage payments because this enabled them to dovetail household chores with their income-generating activities. An important determinant of the cost-effectiveness of the program is the share of the wage bill in the total cost of the program. Experience reviewed in this chapter suggests that achieving high labor intensity is not easy in practice, even when common labor- based methods of production are available. Careful attention to detail is needed to achieve  high labor intensity without compromising the quality of the assets to be created. Evidence about the cost-effectiveness of public works programs suggests that programs are worthwhile only if planners give careful attention to the quality of the assets to be created and to the potential of such assets to create second-round employment benefits. Future benefits from public works can be substantial if the program is well designed and implemented; the program will then be cost-effective. A word of caution is needed in interpreting the cost-effectiveness calculations cited in this paper. These calculations take into account only the transfer benefits given to the poor. The risk benefits of the program-the benefits of reduced risks due to consumption smoothing-are rarely factored into the calculations of cost-effectiveness. This is one of the reasons why the cost-effectiveness calculations often do not appear very favorable. Another limitation of cost-effectiveness calculations is that only they only take account of direct transfer benefits. The indirect benefits (such as the short- and medium-term effects of the program on the rural market wage rate, and the socially beneficial effects of female empowerment) have not been taken into account in the available estimates of benefits and costs of workfare programs. Also, when comparing the cost-effective calculations of workfare programs with other transfer programs, it is important to bear in mind the savings in administrative costs afforded by self-selection in addition to other factors. The main constraint in implementing public works programs in much of Africa is a lack of capacity. This constraint can be eased if donors coordinate their activities and provide assistance to build private contracting capacity. In all countries and in Sub- Saharan African countries particularly, assured funding, community participation, sound technical assistance, and proper understanding of the social structures and communities where the projects are located can vastly increase the effectiveness of workfare programs.  Systemic Shocks and Social Protection: Role and Effectiveness of Public Works Programs Kalanidhi Subbarao, Lead Economist (Social Protection), Africa Human Development' I. Introduction Public works programs2 have been important counter-cyclical interventions in both developed and developing countries during the last century. In England, workhouse relief, to which the able-bodied poor were restricted after England's 1834 Poor Law Amendment Act, explicitly self-targeted the poor by aiming to "provide pay and conditions less eligible than the meanest available alternative" (Himmelfarb, 1984). Several Western countries adopted different types of public works programs during the depression years (1931-36) and again during milder recessions. In much of South Asia, public works programs began in the 1950s as "food-for-work" programs in which workers were paid for their labor with food aid from Western countries. These programs are now operated by the governments of the region as "cash-for-work" programs that provide short-term employment at low wage rates. In Korea, the public workfare program constituted a core safety net during the financial crisis of 1997- 98. Public works programs typically provide short-term employment at low wages for unskilled and semi-skilled workers on labor-intensive projects such as road construction and maintenance, irrigation infrastructure, reforestation, and soil conservation. Public works programs are now viewed as a means of providing income support to the poor in critical times rather than as a way of getting the unemployed back into the labor market. The lessons to be learned from public workfare programs are relevant for all risk-prone countries and for the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia particularly because of the programs' considerable potential for helping the poor to cope with the co-variate risks associated with climatic and systemic shocks. In some countries, the programs have been implemented on a national scale, whereas in other countries, the programs have been only one component of a multi-sectoral intervention, for example, in Social Investment Funds. Table I provides information on the scale of operation of public works programs for selected developing countries. ' I would like to thank John Blomquist, Polly Jones, and Julie Van Domelen for helpful suggestions. The paper also benefited from my informal discussions with Alan Gelb 2 The terms "public works programs" and "workfare programs" are used interchangeably throughout this paper. Both refer to programs in which participants must work to obtain benefits. These programs offer temporary employment at a low wage rate and have been widely used for fighting poverty. Table la: Scale of Operations of Public Works Programs in Selected Countries: National Programs Country Person Days Botswana (1992-93) 7 million person days Ghana (1988-91) 0.5 person days Kenya (1992-93) 0.6 person days India National (1994) 800-900 person days Chile (1987) 40-45 person days Egypt 27-30 person days Argentina (1998-2000) 400,000 persons Source: World Bank (1994) and Subbarao (1997). Table 1b: Scale of Operations of Public Works Programs in Selected Countries: Programs Implemented under Social Investment Funds (midl980s to early 1990s) Country and Program Employment Generated Bolivia: FSE 731,000 person-months Honduras: ZIF 140,000 person-months El Salvador: FIS 55,400 person-months Peru: FONCODES 24,500 person-months Panama: FES 28,000 person-months Nicaragua: FISE 73,000 person-months Source: World Bank (1994) and Subbarao (1997). There is much variation in the meaning and scope of public works programs (also known as workfare programs) across countries. The term "public works" often creates the impression that the program is a government-run program to "create" jobs. This was indeed the case in much of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe where public works programs were understood to imply a "wage subsidy" program, in other words, that the government paid the entire wage bill to encourage private entrepreneurs and state enterprises to hire more workers and thus "solve" the unemployment problem. This view is slowly changing inasmuch as attempts are being made in some Central Asian republics to introduce public works at low wages as a short-term income transfer program for the poor along the lines of programs in South Asia. In recent years, because the implementation arrangements for public works programs have changed, the word "public" in "public works" has become somewhat inaccurate. In the "old style" public works programs, typically the public works departments of central governments financed and implemented these programs. As a result, they tended to suffer from the drawbacks of other centralized programs, including the creation of large bureaucratic structures, a lack of accountability, and little consultation with local communities and governments in the selection and execution of projects. In recent years, in some countries, the "provider" or "financier" of the program (usually the government but 2 also NGOs or international aid agencies such as the World Food Program) has often been a different entity from the program's "implementor" who may be either the line ministries of the government, a private contractor, an NGO, or a Social Investment Fund. The paper is organized into six main sections. The next section provides a brief overview of the rationale for workfare programs in the developing world. The third section provides an overview of conceptual issues. The fourth section discusses the design features of public workfare programs, reviewing relevant country experiences. The fifth section gives a brief overview of the available evaluations with reference to benefits and costs and the distributional outcomes of workfare programs. The last section provides a synthesis of how to plan, implement, and evaluate a public workfare program. II. Rationale The argument for public works in 19h Century England was centered on the ethic of work, which usually meant dirty and nasty menial labor. The justification for such public works during the Depression years was largely the macro need to restore aggregate demand. In many low-income countries today, however, the rationale for launching a public works program is vastly different from the motivations behind the launch of past programs in the West. In low-income countries, public workfare programs are undertaken with four objectives in mind: * First, these programs provide transfer benefits to the poor. The transfer benefit is equal to the wage rate minus any costs of participation incurred by the worker. In countries with high unemployment rates, transfer benefits from a good workfare program can prevent poverty from worsening, especially during periods of adjustment or transition. * Second, the programs, depending on their timing, may also confer consumption- smoothing or stabilization benefits on program recipients. These stabilization benefits arise mainly from the reduction of the risk that poor households will face a decrease in their consumption during slack agricultural seasons. For example, if a program is implemented during these slack agricultural seasons when the market demand for labor is low, workers employed by the program will benefit from the resulting injection of income and consequential consumption smoothing. Any policy intervention that lessens the risks of starvation for those surviving on the edge of poverty should be valued highly. * Third, these programs, if well designed, can help to build much-needed physical infrastructure. For example, the famous Maharashtra Employment Guarantee Scheme in India, which has been in operation for over three decades, has created considerable irrigation infrastructure and rural roads in the state of Maharashtra. Some of the durable assets created by the program have generated (or can generate) additional second-round employment benefits. * Fourth, these programs can be targeted to specific geographic areas that have high unemployment and poverty rates. Poor areas and communities can directly benefit from the program (in terms of transfer benefits) and indirectly benefit in terms of the physical assets that the program creates and/or maintains. To this extent, well-designed workfare programs can enhance the growth potential of less endowed regions. 3 In addition there can be other (often unintended) spin offs from public works programs. For example, workfare programs can build the capacity of communities to manage their own affairs by strengthening local governments and other institutions. If the program's design features are carefully thought through (see section four), it can encourage the participation and empowerment of women. Also, in many countries, this type of program has helped many small-scale private contractors to emerge and grow, and in some countries, the private sector and NGOs have been involved in the implementation of public works programs. Finally, the link between workfare programs and household food security needs to be mentioned. In much of Africa and South Asia, public works programs originated as "food-for-work" programs that paid wages in food, usually provided by donors. Even now, some donor-driven programs (for example, those of the World Food Program) run public works programs in many African countries providing food as wages, the motivation being to ensure the food security of poor households. Thus, in low-income countries, public works programs are undertaken with multiple objectives including providing temporary income transfer benefits to the poor, smoothing consumption, ensuring household food security, creating assets, and developing poor areas. These programs are often regarded as vital in helping populations cope with the climatic risks that are pervasive in much of Africa and Asia. III. Conceptual Issues The transfer benefit to a worker amounts to the wage he/she gets from the scheme, minus any costs of participation (such as the cost of transport) and any earnings lost from alternative employment. If the costs of participation and income from alternative sources are negligible and if the program has no effect on the labor market and the structure of market wages, the transfer benefit should be approximately the same as the program wage times the duration of employment. In reality, these assumptions are unlikely to hold. For example, the costs of participation and foregone earnings are rarely zero. Most workers have to walk long distances to the program's work sites or incur transport costs. In the absence of the scheme, workers typically work for a few days in alternative jobs, which they give up when slightly longer-term employment is offered by a public works project. Moreover, unless the scale of the public works program is very limited, the program is likely to put an upward pressure on the market wage rate, in which case the net transfer benefit (the direct program wage benefit and the indirect benefit of an increment in market wage resulting from the program) may be higher than the program wage. Thus, depending upon what impact the scheme has on the wage rate, on workers' foregone earnings, and on their costs of participation, the net transfer benefit may be higher or lower than the program wage. In order to enable workers to self-select themselves into the program, it is desirable to keep the wage paid by the program low, in other words, somewhat lower than the prevailing market wage for unskilled labor. A low wage is likely to make the program unattractive to the non-poor. A low wage will keep the overall participation rate low and at the same time ensure that a disproportionate number of poor workers will participate in the program, a higher proportion than would be the case if the program wage were higher. Given a strictly defined budget, a low wage would avoid job rationing. Thus, a low program wage has several merits. However, a low wage rate will also result in low transfer earnings to each (poor) participant. 4 Finally, in some situations, the poor may incur transaction costs that may further reduce their transfer benefit. For example, if the program's implementing agencies and institutional framework are affected by corruption and leakage, the poor who participate in the program may have to pay a part of their wage to scheme organizers to ensure continued participation, which may further reduce the transfer benefit of the program. The particular implementation arrangements, the institutional framework, and the overall efficiency of scheme administration also greatly effect the total amount of transfer benefits that accrue to participants. The sum of total transfer earnings going to all participants will be larger as the duration of workers' employment and the share of wages in the total cost of the program increase. These last two parameters-the share of wages and the duration of employment-vary depending on the nature of the project selected for implementation. As will be mentioned in later sections, there is much cross-country variation in both the share of wages in total program cost and the duration of employment. The potential welfare gains from a public works program also depend on the source of financing. If a public works program is entirely aid-financed, the transfer benefits to workers are a net addition to all other benefits flowing from programs funded out of general tax revenues. However, if the program is funded out of general tax revenues, it is important to look at the counterfactual situation-in other words, what would have been the benefits accruing to participants from alternative ways of spending the same amount of budgetary resources. Also, it is useful to know if a public works program has been introduced or extended at the expense of other activities that give non-labor benefits, such as education or hospital services, to poor participants. It is rarely possible to evaluate this counterfactual empirically, but it is important to bear in mind the source of the financing for a public works program in trying to estimate the true benefits of the program. The stabilization benefit of the program reflects the program's "insurance" function. This depends on the timing of the program. In predominantly agricultural societies, household incomes increase or decrease depending upon seasonal activities. Poor households often suffer from precipitous shortfalls in consumption and nutritional status in slack seasons and during periods or years of drought. A workfare program targeted to those regions most affected by monsoon failures or by seasonal drops in economic activity can enable poor participants to smooth their consumption, thus significantly reducing their exposure to risk. Stabilizing their income can prevent acute distress and prevent poor households from having to sell off their assets during years or seasons of crop failure. In other words, the risk-coping benefits of a public works program can be as important as the transfer benefit to poor households who lack options or who cannot afford to insure themselves. However, it is not always possible to implement a program precisely at those times when the poor are most likely to sustain consumption shortfalls. For example, during periods of heavy rainfall when all economic activities come to a halt, logistics may not permit the implementation of a public works program especially in remote villages, so a workfare program may not be the most appropriate instrument to protect the poor during the "hungry" season. IV. Design Features: Cross-Country Evidence This section considers the design features of public works programs using three broad criteria: (i) how to enhance the benefits accruing to participants; (ii) how to increase the cost- effectiveness of a workfare program; and (iii) how to implement such a program. The first 5 two sub-sections cover only major, national-level programs, whereas the third sub-section also looks at small-scale workfare programs implemented under the rubric of Social Investment Funds.3 Design Features that Maximize Program Benefits to the Poor There are four important features of workfare programs that must be carefully designed to maximize the amount of program benefits that accrue to the poor: the level of the wage rate, the mode of wage payment, the duration and timing of the public works themselves, and the labor intensity of the program. The level of the wage rate. The wage rate is a key element in determining the degree to which the poor self-select themselves into the program and, therefore, in determining the distributional outcomes of the program. In order to promote self-selection, it is best if a public works program offers a wage slightly below the market wage, in other words, if the program maintains the level of its wage at a rate low enough so that only the poor would be attracted to the program. Experience in setting a wage below the prevailing market wage varies across countries. Some governments have been unable to set a wage lower than the minimum wage, and often the official minimum wage is higher than the market wage in the informal sector and in rural farm activities in which the poorest tend to be engaged. If the minimum wage is set at a level higher than the market-clearing wage and is strictly enforced, then there is only limited scope for a public works program to set its wage at a level lower than the minimum wage and foster self-targeting to the poor. As can be seen from Table 2, there is much cross-country variation in the level of the program wage rate relative to the market and minimum wages rates. In Chile, the program wage rate was maintained at about 70 percent of the minimum wage, which encouraged the poor to self-target themselves into the program. Almost a quarter of the participants were women. In Kenya, the program wage was equal to the minimum wage, which was typically much higher than the prevailing market wage. In the Philippines too, the program wage was 25 percent higher than the agricultural market wage. The Philippines case is particularly interesting from a design perspective. In the Philippines, the program cash wage was equal to the minimum wage. However, in addition to the cash wage, an additional in-kind wage in the form of a certain quantity of food was also given to every participant, so that total compensation (cash plus food) turned out to be much higher than the ruling market wage for unskilled labor. Not surprisingly, substantial numbers of the non-poor were attracted to the program (Subbarao et al, 1995). The targeting effectiveness achieved by setting the public works wage below the minimum wage depends on whether or not that minimum wage rate is really the market minimum. This is clearly illustrated by the case of the Employment Guarantee Scheme (MEGS) in the Indian state of Maharashtra. In this program, every registered participant is "guaranteed" employment at the minimum wage rate within a radius of five kilometers from his or her home. The program was enormously successful in drawing vast numbers of the poor, especially women, to work sites. Right from its inception in 1973, the program wage was equal to the minimum wage, which was low enough to promote the self-selection of the 3 The main reason is that no detailed information on the design features or cost-effectiveness of those workfare programs implemented under the rubric of Social Investment Funds is available. 6 poor into the program. In 1988, the minimum wage was doubled so the program wage also had to be doubled. The consequence has been a significant drop in the number of person days of employment generated (Figure 1; see also Subbarao 1993 and 1997). Research by Datt and Ravallion (1994) has confirmed that the upward revision of the wage rate in 1988 contributed to job rationing and eroded the "guarantee" of employment expected of the program. Gaiha (2000) also noted that targeting efficiency had been eroded following the wage hike in 1988. The relatively more affluent have joined the program, whereas some poor participants were rationed out of the program. In Tanzania and Botswana too, because the program wage was maintained at a level higher than the market wage for comparable unskilled activities, jobs had to be rationed, particularly during droughts when the need of the poor to participate in public works was greatest (Teklu, 1994). In Burkina Faso, Senegal, and Sri Lanka, the program wages were lower than the market wage rates in those countries for unskilled labor. Table 2: The Program Wage (PW), Minimum Wage (MNW),and Market Wage (MW) in Selected Countries Country/Program PW in Relation to MNW and/or MW 1. Bangladesh: Cash For Work, 1991-92 PWMW (bl) MEGS: up to 1988 PW=MNWMW 3. Pakistan: IGPRA* III, 1992 PWMW Food For Work 1987 . PW**>MW 5. Botswana: Cash For Work PWMW 6. Kenya: Cash For Work 1992-93 PW=MNW>MW 7. Chile: Cash For Work 1987 PW