MARCH TRADE WATCH 74204 Trade Collapses in the New Year: Update  January and February trade data show a sharp drop in exports and imports across nearly all countries. This follows already weak end-of-the-year trade data.  U.S. and Japanese import data, available by sector, show a universal collapse across broad sectors, with food products the least damaged and mineral products and heavy materials, such as transportation and metals the most affected.  One important bright spot is cell phones. Imports are up 24 percent in the United States and 12 percent in Japan. Trade plummets in the New Year. Forty-one countries have reported trade data for February. Trade growth is uniformly negative, with both exports and imports on average down over 30 percent, as compared with the same month last year (See Tables 1 and 2). While trade is severely depressed, there is little overall change since January, suggesting that conditions did not deteriorate significantly from the previous month. To put the declines in context, Figures 1 and 2 show export and import growth by region through February 2009, for a balanced sample of countries reporting data. Figures 3 and 4 show the same indices by income group. Trade growth relative to the same month of the previous year averaged above 20 percent until October and November. While part of the decline reflects the steep fall in commodity prices—the slowdown is relatively widespread, across regions and between developed and developing countries, as well as across exports and imports, suggesting that reduced demand is the primary cause. U.S. and Japanese data, available by industry, provide an indication of where trade is declining the fastest. Table 3 and Figure 5 show U.S. imports by broad sector. All sectors now record declines. Data for Japan, also showing universal declines, are reported in Table 4 and Figure 6. Both countries report especially sharp drops in mineral products, in part reflecting plummeting prices. Transportation, metals, and stone and glass have also been hit heavily as demand and investment plummet. In both countries, food products (animals, vegetables, and foodstuffs) have been relatively less damaged by the crisis. Exploring the data at the HS 6-digit level (more than 5000 products), over 75 percent of products in both countries declined relative to the same month the previous year. Still, there are a few bright spots: Cell phone imports are up 24 percent in the US and 12 percent in Japan. Medical equipment trade is thriving (such as catheters, pacemakers and MRI equipment). MARCH TRADE WATCH Various foods items are up (bananas and meat in both nations, grains and rice in Japan). A number of chemical imports increased in both countries (eg. Heterocyclic comps, a sizable item in trade, are up 48 percent in the US and 67 percent in Japan). Tobacco imports rose over 100 percent in the US and 30 percent in Japan. This note was prepared by Caroline Freund (DECRG) and Matias David Horenstein (DECRG) with support from PRMTR and the multi-donor trust fund. If you wish to receive a monthly Trade Watch, email mhorenstein@worldbank.org with “Trade Watch� in the subject. MARCH TRADE WATCH Table 1: Export Growth Relative to Same Month Previous Year (Percentage Change for Data in $U.S.) Exports Country September October November December January February Argentina 44.90 13.36 -5.78 -24.01 -35.80 -24.44 Australia 52.02 34.14 13.49 3.09 -0.08 -1.20 Austria 13.30 -9.92 -25.66 -16.02 -32.72 n.a. Bangladesh 12.70 31.41 4.90 3.78 n.a. n.a. Belgium 12.25 -7.45 -26.78 -15.69 -27.96 n.a. Bulgaria 18.03 -12.90 -26.82 -18.24 n.a. n.a. Canada 14.30 -1.81 -16.98 -17.34 -34.67 -34.47 Chile -12.69 -22.73 -27.62 -26.81 -41.43 -42.19 China 21.50 19.20 -2.20 -2.80 -17.50 -25.70 Colombia 15.73 0.19 -35.82 -16.30 -30.93 n.a. Croatia 18.92 -19.81 -11.18 -8.81 -36.75 -20.52 Cyprus 12.22 -15.00 8.44 7.64 -31.14 -30.13 Czech Republic 21.66 -7.52 -24.46 -18.79 -34.51 -39.85 Denmark 17.50 -4.53 -26.77 -9.63 -26.21 -32.03 Ecuador 19.58 -11.08 -23.93 -38.52 -45.42 -51.98 Egypt 65.12 38.29 -4.46 n.a. -9.67 n.a. Estonia 29.36 5.22 -27.31 -13.89 -35.77 n.a. Finland 8.57 -6.25 -30.52 -22.19 -42.48 -44.59 France 10.96 -10.69 -23.88 -10.12 -30.70 -33.61 Germany 10.41 -5.35 -23.83 -15.00 -30.95 -33.35 Greece 7.54 3.70 -27.84 n.a. -29.83 -25.31 Hong Kong 3.50 9.37 -4.95 -10.85 -21.30 -22.60 Hungary 8.23 -17.00 -20.46 -20.54 -42.98 -40.88 Iceland 67.22 -24.65 -46.17 6.20 -27.95 n.a. India 11.03 -13.07 -9.89 -1.04 -15.88 -21.73 Indonesia 29.02 4.72 -1.81 -20.56 -36.08 -32.86 Ireland 4.31 -9.26 -19.79 1.41 -11.38 n.a. Israel 26.86 -20.09 -18.83 -18.50 -27.28 -33.20 Italy 11.15 -6.91 -26.63 -12.33 -33.25 n.a. Japan 9.45 6.67 -16.13 -20.00 -35.17 -41.66 Jordan n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Kazakhstan 47.93 52.26 -2.29 -18.21 -49.81 n.a. Korea, Republic of 27.64 7.78 -19.45 -17.90 -34.20 -18.35 Latvia 29.51 0.46 -26.36 -17.94 -31.88 -38.56 Lithuania 46.27 16.82 1.71 -11.04 -23.73 -36.66 Luxembourg 20.08 -4.58 -27.31 -21.81 -33.63 n.a. Malaysia 13.69 -8.65 -11.71 -18.77 -35.29 -27.38 Malta 2.78 -8.37 -35.14 -38.07 -43.73 -45.16 Mexico 8.40 -6.36 -16.67 -19.68 -31.50 -29.46 Netherlands 15.51 -3.49 -23.90 -15.80 -29.13 n.a. New Zealand -4.44 -13.38 -21.40 -20.72 -33.72 -41.48 Norway 7.20 -13.34 -21.76 -32.92 -30.68 -39.89 Pakistan 18.36 9.04 0.97 -1.25 -7.41 -18.20 Peru 8.09 -8.69 -11.58 -32.97 -37.08 -27.37 Philippines 1.12 -14.78 -11.40 -40.32 -41.04 n.a. Poland 25.05 -6.36 -24.18 -25.76 n.a. n.a. Portugal 7.96 -11.10 -25.68 -20.90 -35.79 n.a. Romania 22.57 6.94 -20.56 -22.07 -31.60 -37.36 Russian Federation 53.71 12.45 -16.08 -25.84 -47.91 -47.51 Singapore 15.07 -5.98 -15.68 -19.86 -41.56 -30.95 Slovenia 15.43 -6.48 -25.17 -21.09 -33.05 -35.10 South Africa 27.77 5.36 -24.69 -15.87 -32.34 -27.44 Spain 19.97 -6.56 -25.22 -14.54 -33.16 n.a. Sri Lanka -9.33 3.18 11.61 -20.63 -11.87 n.a. Sweden 3.93 -16.02 -32.63 -24.92 -42.24 -47.99 Switzerland 19.00 3.45 -13.98 -2.54 -14.20 n.a. Thailand 22.65 5.23 -18.60 -12.43 -26.47 -11.35 Turkey 41.51 -1.81 -17.11 -20.71 -25.95 -24.90 Ukraine 62.47 34.89 -18.60 -17.56 -33.28 n.a. United Kingdom 8.97 -7.87 -29.32 -21.63 -35.30 n.a. United States 9.11 4.50 -5.66 -11.75 -21.13 -23.84 Uruguay 10.96 39.11 2.73 -10.06 -7.41 n.a. Venezuela -84.17 -87.47 -81.62 n.a. n.a. n.a. Average 17.73 -1.44 -18.33 -16.46 -30.38 -31.83 Balanced Average 18.07 -2.16 -16.22 -17.38 -31.48 -31.83 Source: Datastream. Note: Data reporter in national currency are converted to U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. n.a. indicates not available MARCH TRADE WATCH Table 2: Import Growth Relative to Same Month Previous Year (Percentage Change for Data in $U.S.) Imports Country September October November December January February Argentina 34.01 16.59 -5.41 -10.87 -38.39 -36.72 Australia 30.01 -4.57 -11.90 -1.27 -22.15 -28.95 Austria 8.79 -4.03 -19.79 -12.70 -25.93 n.a. Bangladesh 31.43 26.48 9.10 0.23 n.a. n.a. Belgium 18.74 -5.64 -23.44 -15.11 -32.14 n.a. Bulgaria 17.16 -0.96 -23.79 -20.14 -42.41 n.a. Canada 11.52 -3.67 -15.94 -11.46 -25.26 -26.84 Chile 47.37 21.96 -14.56 -4.40 -25.50 -32.64 China 21.30 15.60 -17.90 -21.30 -43.10 -24.10 Colombia 29.27 -2.61 -7.34 -2.97 -24.61 n.a. Croatia 28.84 -9.24 -17.02 -6.48 -41.62 -37.13 Cyprus 26.76 -2.41 -12.32 -10.25 -30.51 -30.48 Czech Republic 23.83 -2.26 -19.98 -14.90 -32.17 -39.30 Denmark 18.74 -4.25 -21.47 -9.10 -18.73 -26.44 Ecuador 54.92 38.33 13.99 22.83 7.03 -4.71 Egypt 112.32 96.81 57.03 n.a. 36.76 n.a. Estonia 8.51 -9.06 -29.33 -21.74 -42.55 n.a. Finland 23.01 -8.33 -24.05 -21.88 -39.60 -40.03 France 16.01 -3.92 -20.62 -13.69 -29.23 -29.33 Germany 17.37 -2.11 -14.70 -11.47 -22.34 -27.50 Greece 7.99 -8.52 -25.15 -17.45 -36.83 -38.97 Hong Kong 3.79 11.21 -7.64 -15.70 -26.61 -17.06 Hungary 10.35 -14.68 -20.15 -20.86 -41.54 -43.07 Iceland -2.18 -53.23 -45.05 -56.39 -47.88 n.a. India 55.52 6.10 6.12 8.86 -18.22 -23.31 Indonesia 66.34 70.74 19.90 12.61 -31.30 -40.92 Ireland -3.97 -23.11 -37.16 -25.07 -34.85 n.a. Israel 28.46 -6.02 -6.46 -27.50 -33.93 -35.11 Italy 14.28 -5.54 -24.68 -17.12 -31.68 n.a. Japan 38.89 24.39 -1.97 -3.40 -18.71 -34.19 Jordan 22.53 5.94 -6.82 -20.10 -14.81 n.a. Kazakhstan 20.13 4.49 0.29 21.52 -21.83 n.a. Korea, Republic of 45.36 10.25 -14.95 -21.60 -32.10 -30.87 Latvia 14.43 -11.13 -31.29 -22.05 -41.73 -47.57 Lithuania 31.93 3.65 -19.36 -16.24 -45.88 -49.45 Luxembourg 25.56 1.10 -10.13 -14.85 -24.81 n.a. Malaysia 10.12 -11.16 -15.10 -26.57 -37.56 -37.19 Malta 21.17 -29.73 -27.23 -17.40 -25.08 -37.84 Mexico 17.84 0.26 -7.63 -12.79 -30.04 -30.72 Netherlands 21.01 -0.48 -19.25 -13.03 -29.70 n.a. New Zealand 11.51 -11.27 -23.07 -12.75 -37.81 -46.24 Norway 16.55 -24.86 -24.72 -16.71 -29.63 -41.99 Pakistan 37.43 1.33 -12.33 -9.07 -28.02 -42.32 Peru 60.49 32.78 14.90 6.36 -19.01 -18.66 Philippines 2.52 -11.13 -31.52 -33.99 -34.51 n.a. Poland 26.85 -1.79 -20.15 -23.00 n.a. n.a. Portugal 12.66 -5.85 -22.56 -16.40 -33.92 n.a. Romania 32.89 -0.82 -27.24 -29.64 -42.76 -44.56 Russian Federation 44.83 23.48 -3.11 -3.32 -34.07 -36.47 Singapore 30.33 2.39 -13.19 -16.17 -37.33 -27.89 Slovenia 14.33 -1.95 -24.07 -18.38 -38.30 -38.53 South Africa 24.76 -15.27 -16.22 -15.38 -20.38 -34.60 Spain 9.66 -16.08 -30.55 -22.90 -41.76 n.a. Sri Lanka 22.75 10.05 -3.14 -11.39 -40.75 n.a. Sweden 0.93 -14.81 -30.40 -23.82 -41.56 -46.28 Switzerland 20.09 -2.01 -17.87 -4.96 -19.66 n.a. Thailand 39.35 21.68 2.01 -6.49 -37.60 -40.33 Turkey 23.69 -4.38 -27.42 -29.25 -43.26 -47.60 Ukraine 74.76 30.22 -9.58 -27.93 -45.74 n.a. United Kingdom -0.73 -13.58 -28.02 -24.98 -33.80 n.a. United States 11.59 2.61 -16.01 -14.57 -26.59 -34.14 Uruguay 44.17 78.51 -3.88 29.56 -33.20 -7.80 Venezuela 12.31 5.42 6.88 18.04 14.53 -13.09 Average 25.66 3.33 -14.21 -13.39 -30.62 -33.95 Balanced Average 27.10 4.68 -12.94 -10.63 -30.15 -33.44 Source: Datastream. Note: Data reporter in national currency are converted to U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. n.a. indicates not available MARCH TRADE WATCH Table 3: U.S. Import Growth by Industry Industry September October November December January February Animal & Animal Products 7.45 -2.47 -4.10 0.74 -7.87 -13.10 Vegetable Products 24.27 18.62 6.55 11.36 -1.22 -7.99 Foodstuffs 19.77 7.93 -3.15 4.60 -6.04 -9.44 Mineral Products 34.23 25.41 -27.92 -35.19 -49.94 -53.56 Chemicals & Allied Industries 26.31 14.02 -3.27 13.37 -11.17 -19.20 Plastics / Rubbers 13.82 7.67 -1.03 -6.02 -14.25 -30.92 Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & Furs 8.20 -1.07 -9.53 -4.85 -3.62 -25.96 Wood & Wood Products -5.31 -9.81 -15.53 -16.76 -25.69 -27.68 Textiles 2.27 -0.14 -10.17 -4.30 -9.11 -18.85 Footwear / Headgear 7.84 7.77 -3.20 0.34 7.54 -18.77 Stone / Glass 8.65 -14.91 -24.12 -20.18 -34.54 -41.53 Metals 25.51 15.33 1.20 -5.99 -12.98 -33.75 Machinery / Electrical 4.99 -3.88 -15.74 -12.60 -19.14 -26.25 Transportation -10.98 -22.03 -26.61 -21.29 -43.04 -51.74 Miscellaneous 4.76 -1.79 -11.29 -5.91 -14.23 -26.28 Other 6.50 7.06 -3.67 -1.74 -11.12 -6.00 Total 11.86 2.79 -15.98 -14.49 -26.63 -34.23 Source: USITC and authors' calculations. MARCH TRADE WATCH Table 4: Japan’s Import Growth by Industry Industry September October November December January February Animal & Animal Products 12.04 7.08 -7.73 -7.05 -9.00 -15.66 Vegetable Products 49.33 25.33 -5.71 -8.01 -25.68 -32.73 Foodstuffs 9.44 -2.34 -16.58 -3.38 -6.43 -18.17 Mineral Products 62.17 29.96 -12.55 -29.80 -42.38 -50.80 Chemicals & Allied Industries 24.09 3.96 -5.29 -3.96 -15.08 -27.65 Plastics / Rubbers 26.07 7.87 -0.53 -3.89 -18.11 -42.32 Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & Furs 0.90 -14.41 -22.48 -16.52 -7.29 -33.25 Wood & Wood Products 13.93 2.54 -8.46 -7.73 -12.67 -20.36 Textiles 11.67 -1.69 -9.36 -1.96 3.29 -31.44 Footwear / Headgear 15.69 -0.09 -5.58 -2.21 -0.19 -24.21 Stone / Glass 16.77 4.36 -23.65 -38.91 -37.92 -58.48 Metals 13.81 5.16 -15.04 -22.78 -35.86 -56.40 Machinery / Electrical 5.78 -8.64 -20.37 -24.95 -34.56 -42.40 Transportation 3.73 -34.99 -36.25 -25.05 -49.08 -46.36 Miscellaneous 7.93 -7.26 -19.98 -16.21 -30.70 -35.97 Total 28.98 7.85 -14.80 -21.74 -31.92 -43.00 Source: Ministry of Finance, Japan, and authors' calculations. MARCH TRADE WATCH Figure 1: Export Growth by Region 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb -20 -30 -40 -50 EAP ECA LAC MENA NOA SAS SSA Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department and authors’ calculations. Simple average of growth rates across economies within regions for a balanced sample of 41 economies reporting data. Figure 2: Import Growth by Region 80 60 40 20 0 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb -20 -40 -60 EAP ECA LAC MENA NOA SAS SSA Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department and authors’ calculations. Simple average of growth rates across economies within regions for a balanced sample of 41 economies reporting data MARCH TRADE WATCH Figure 3: Export Growth by Income Group 50 40 30 20 10 0 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb -10 -20 -30 -40 L ML UM H_OECD H_other Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department and authors’ calculations. Simple average of growth rates of economies in income groups for a balanced sample of 45 economies reporting data. Figure 4: Import Growth by Income Group 80 60 40 20 0 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb -20 -40 -60 L ML UM H_OECD H_other Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department and authors’ calculations. Simple average of growth rates of economies in income groups for a balanced sample of 45 economies reporting data. MARCH TRADE WATCH Figure 5: U.S. Import Growth by Industry Animal & Animal Products Vegetable Products 100 Foodstuffs 80 Mineral Products Chemicals & Allied Industries 60 Plastics / Rubbers Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & 40 Furs Wood & Wood Products 20 Textiles Footwear / Headgear 0 Stone / Glass -20 Metals Machinery / Electrical -40 Transportation Miscellaneous -60 Other -80 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb Source: USITC. Figure 6: Japan's Import Growth by Industry Animal & Animal Products Vegetable Products 100 Foodstuffs 80 Mineral Products Chemicals & Allied Industries 60 Plastics / Rubbers Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & 40 Furs Wood & Wood Products 20 Textiles Footwear / Headgear 0 Stone / Glass -20 Metals Machinery / Electrical -40 Transportation Miscellaneous -60 -80 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb Source: Ministry of Finance, Japan.