20838 Post-UNCED Series May 1995 TOWARDS ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Building Blocks for AFRICA 2025 Paper No. 5 Urban Planning and Environment in Sub.,Saharan Africa I J. L. Venard .44 Environmentally Sustainable Development Division * Africa Technical Department Dmk. (AFFE S) Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa A World Bank Perspective Urban Planning & Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa by J. L. Venard Environmentally Sustainable Development Division Africa Technical Department (AFTES) The World Bank May 1995 Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa T he "building blocks" in this series are part of the continuing discussion inaugurated at the UNCED Conference in Rio on building environmentally sustainable development in Africa. The conclusions in these papers are not definitive; nor do their views and interpretations necessarily reflect the opinions of the World Bank or any of its affiliated organizations. ii Table of Contents Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa Foreword .....v Executive Summary ......... vii Introduction ..........1 1. Urbanization of Sub-Saharan Africa ..........2 1.1 Current Status ..........2 1.2 Global Projections for the Year 2025 ..........3 1.3 Urban Networks ..........5 1.4 Urbanization and Social Change ..........7 1.5 Regional Planning, Population and Environment ..........9 2. Urban Planning in an Environmental Perspective .......... l 1 2.1 Planning Urban Extension .......... 11 2.2 Land Use Management .......... 13 2.3 Investment Planning and City Productivity .......... 14 2.4 Institutional Status of Urban Planning .......... 15 3. Urban Environment Management .......... 16 3.1 Water Cycle Management .......... 16 3.2 Urban Transport .......... 17 4. Problems ...... 19 4.1 World Bank Experience in Urban Project ......... 19 4.2 Urban Planning in Bank-Financed Projects .......... 21 4.3 Financing a Decentralized Urban Management . 22 5. Conclusion: A Strategy for the Next 30 Years .......... 25 5.1 Decentralization and Urban Planning .......... 25 5.2 Urban Planning .......... 27 5.3 Urban Information . 27 Annexes Annex 1 ... 29 Annex 2 ... 41 iii Foreword W hich environmental issues make development unsustainable in Sub-Saharan Africa, and how do African societies perceive and address these issues? How Nv has the World Bank helped its Africa borrowers to integrate environment into their development strategies and programs? And what must the Bank do to help African countries achieve environmentally sustainable development (ESD)? Inspired by the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, the Bank has launched a reflection process to answer these questions. In its reflection the Bank is guided by the message of Rio: without improved environmental management, development will be undermined, and without accelerated development in poor countries-which describes most of Sub-Saharan Africa-the environment will continue to degrade. This process seeks to define the Bank's medium-term agenda for helping its Sub- Saharan Africa borrowers attain ESD. It aims at enriching Bank staff's dialogue with African counterparts about improving the conception and implementation of Bank ESD programs. The process should also gain the interest of a much wider audience, including an array of prominent institutions-both African and non-African as well as public and private-unuversities, NGOs, and bilateral and multilateral agencies. It should encourage a debate on environmental issues which would forge wide support for new African initiatives toward ESD. Space and time determine the process. Environmental issues are location- specific and therefore require integrating the geographic dimension. With respect to time, the process has focused on both past and future historical perspectives. The future time honzon is 2025, i.e., 30 years, corresponding roughly to a generation. Backward, the process focuses on the past decade, and the Bank's association with Africa, in order to measure the full magnitude of environmental issues. Within this process, about 20 thematic "building blocks" have been compiled, each addressing a specific facet of ESD issues. These "blocks," prepared by specialists from inside and outside the Bank, fall into five categories: population, environmental knowledge, urban environment, natural resource management, and strategic instruments. The building blocks series has been the basis for the preparation of a World Bank discussion paper: Toward Environmentally Sustainable Development in Sub- Saharan Africa-a World Bank Perspective, which will be published in 1995. J. L. Venard is with the Caisse francaise de developpement. We are deeply indebted to both Mr. Venard and the Caisse franqaise for their collaborative efforts in this paper. English translation of this paper was by Jacques Jenssen. Nicholas Vernier compiled an organized the building blocks series, and final editing of the series was done by Lawrence Mastri. Francois Falloux Environmental Advisor Environmentally Sustainable Development Division Technical Department Africa Region (AFTES) v Urban Planning and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa * Executive Summary Executive Summary A kthough part of its agriculture remains nomadic and the development of its rural areas is barely under way, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is rapidly urbanizing. From an environmental perspective, this poses two problems: First, the expansion of cities undermines the natural environment and increases the risk of natural disasters (the "green agenda"); meanwhile, the deterioration of the artificial environment, which makes up the urban areas, is creating oppressive living conditions for city dwellers, particularly the poorest (the "brown agenda"). An internal World Bank working paper, Toward Environmentally Sustainable Development in Sub-Saharan Africa, examines the relationship between urban planning and environment in a long-term perspective. Urban planning in this context means both regional planning, including population and land use policies, and urban planning in its proper sense, which aims to organize the development of built-up areas by regulating land occupation and use. Urbanization of Sub-Saharan Africa N Text to demographic growth, urbanization is the most dramatic change that SSA has experienced in the past decades: While its total population has multiplied by 2.5 . s over the past 30 years, its urban population has multiplied by five. Urban growth has been especially rapid between 1950 and 1980, combining a strong rural emigration with a naturally booming demography in a favorable economic situation. However, while the demographic growth rate has continued to rise over the last ten years, urban growth has slowed because of economic circumstances as well as the relative reduction of migrations from the rural areas. The region, with an average urbanization rate below 30 percent in 1990, remained largely under-urbanized in comparison to the rest of the world. SSA is now halfway through a demographic transition, and its total population growth rate should diminish in the coming years. However, if, according to United Nations projections, between 1990 and 2025 the urban sector absorbs two-thirds of the total population increase of the region, the average urbanization rate will only pass the 50 percent mark in 2020-in other words, urban areas will become more populated than rural areas. In 2025, the region will not have reached the average urbanization rate of the rest of the world and will still be one of the least urbanized regions of the planet: Its urbanization rate will then be comparable to Europe's at the beginning of the 1950s, Latin America's in the 1960s, or the Middle East's in 1980. Urbanization in Africa will mean both an increase in the size of urban districts and an increase in the number of cities, mainly by the elevation of a large number of existing towns and villages to the status of small city. Medium-size cities will number more than a thousand in 2020 and will house more than 175 million new urban dwellers-that is, more that the total urban population of the region in 1990. The increase in the number of small cities3/4which should increase from 3,000 to 8,000 between 1990 and 20203/4is linked to the progressive structuring of the rural sector and to the growth of an agricultural economy oriented toward the internal market. vii Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa I In 1960 less than 4 percent of city dwellers lived in a city of a million or more people. This ratio has increased to more than 22 percent in 1990 and is expected to approach 37 percent in 2020. From 18 in 1990, the number of cities with a million or more inhabitants is expected to reach 70 in 2020, and in the earlier urbanized countries or the most densely poplated, there will gradually appear true urban regions including: (1) an "African megalopolis" which is developing around La os; (ii) several "conurbations" in the making whose population could each exceed ten million within thirty years; and (iii) a handful of very large agglomerations (more than five million inhabitants), of which half are coastal cities. Africa's urbanization is part of a social and political transformation process which spans several generations. An important part of the urban population is of recent settlement. Relations with the rural community have remained very strong in the extended family system, derived from the village community with its obligations and attachments, particularly in the areas of food supply and money circulation. The social fabric of the next generation's urban population will probably be very different from today's, and there should be an increasing differentiation between megalopolis and large cities populations, born and educated in the city, and those of small andmedium cities still culturally close to the surrounding rural area. One wonders to what extent these new city dweller generations will, in two or three decades, be able to accommodate a "citizenry" capable of appropriating their cities. Only such a takeover will enable the civil society to participate in the management of its urban environment, such as mobilization, through fiscal policy, of resources for the local communities. Decentralization and Land Use Planning W t ithin the next thirty years, Africa's sustainable development will translate into more complex urban national networks in the form of (i) expansion of a dense f W small city network in support of organization and economic development of rural zones, (ii) development of a network of medium-size cities between the rural sector and the large cities, and (iii) development of large cities and metropolises that will have to increase their productivity in relation to the world economy. In order to achieve this goal, the countries must, perhaps with the support of financial backers, incorporate into their decentralization policy a true land planning strategy which will permit them to allocate in different ways the investment and management resources in these three levels of urban networks. Since the density of the small city network is essentially linked to the movement of population and the econornic development of the rural areas they serve, the part of the urbanization policy which concerns these centers is above all dependent on "territorial management" strategies implemented by the States with the support of financial backers. These strategies, whose final goal is local development, should systematically implement an "urban component" which is compatible and complementary to the management of natural resources, agricultural production, and protection of the environment on the local level. Regional planning could contribute to the success of these strategies through the dissemination of necessary geographic information and by favoring the rationalization of investment choices, particularly in the area of transport infrastructure. The 1200 "medium-sized cities" that will make up SSA in 2020 should, in order to succeed, accommodate as many new dwellers as the 70 large and very large cities. These Vill Urban Planning and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa * Executive Summary medium cities should be subject to national policies consistent with decentralization and urban equipment. Such policies should be principally geared towards enhancing the attractiveness of the secondary urban centers so that they may play a regional part as economic and social relay between the metropolises and the rural world, and help to settle a large number of the urban immigrants. In order to control and organize the growth of the metropolises and large cities, the desirable situation will be achieved only by a greater appropriation of management by the inhabitants of these built areas. This assumes a clear distribution of sectoral and coordinating responsibilities between the State central and decentralized services, the local communities, the private sector, and the organized civil society. One of the main problems to be resolved will be the allocation of investment and management programming tasks of the large urban services between local "human-sized" communities and institutions, combining the State and those communities whose authority would extend to an entire urban area. Such a distribution will be even more difficult in the case of the megalopolises that stretch over several administrative regions, and even several countnes. A policy that combines decentralization and management of the territory at each of these three levels assumes that the State is capable of defining and obtaining the citizen approval for a proposal that will integrate the spatial dimension of development. This will require of the governments, with their central administration and their decentralized services, to rationalize and act not only in a sectoral capacity (environment, agriculture, infrastructure, health, education, population administration management, etc...) but also in a coordinated manner within the area, taking into account the diversity and specificity of the geographic situations. This entails: (i) establishing and maintaining "spatialized" information systems and programming and management tools; (ii) setting up mechanisms and procedures to integrate the space dimension of development into the daily admiunistrative management; and (iii) training public servants to understand and use these mechanisms, information systems, tools, and procedures. Environmental Perspective in Urban Planning E nvironmental problems linked to urbanization most dearly manifest themselves in large cities: unsanitary conditions caused by inadequate water supply; diffusion of E untreated solid and liquid waste bringing about pollution of the water table and the disappearance of fragile ecosystems in the humid coastal zones; soil erosion and deforestation linked with the consumption of fuelwood, etc. The question of integrating urban planning with long-term environmental management strategy therefore arises most acutely in the megalopolises, conurbations, and large urban areas. The present configuration of African cities still bears the mark of post-colonial urbanism imported from abroad. The colonial system had organized the cities, establishing more or less strict segregation between their facilities and those of the Africans, an extreme example being South Africa under apartheid. This distinction evolved into opposing "official cities"-occupied by the "modern" sector, associating African and non-African managers and officials who benefited from western training-and "true cities," occupied mainly by immigrants coming from the countryside with only the clothes on their backs. With the exception of certain British colonized countries, cities were modeled on a property system with neither individually appropriated and delimited i.x Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa lots, nor continually cultivated and without a rural road network that could evolve into a suburban road network. Next to the port and industrial zones, and business and residential districts, similar to those same areas in cities in industrial countries, one finds vast zones of dwelling areas in constant evolution based on traditional construction modes. These areas are on land badly or not at all connected to the various urban networks and at times not even divided into lots. "Irregular" or spontaneous neighborhoods established without any official or customary authorization, often on land that is deemed undevelopable (slopes or swampy hollows), occupy only a low percentage of developed land, but sometimes shelter almost a quarter of the urban population. This situation results from the dualism of production mechanism for building tots, that is of transformation from rural land into urban land. Between 1990 and 2020 the populations of the 70 largest cities in SSA are expected to increase by approximately 140 million inhabitants. Based on an average of 75 m2 area per person, this represents, for the total of the 70 cities, an expansion of urban surface to about one million hectares, of which at least half will be devoted to habitation. It is probable that the prolongation of the actual practices will only accentuate this "duality" in urban landscapes, the official city, equipped and maintained, seeming more and more Like a cluster of islets of modernization sunk in the center of enormous disorganized and badly serviced urban zones. Various authors have made proposals to enable future African cities to ex and in a better orgied manner from an environmental point of view-namely, (i) to limit the States' role in land management; (ii) to practice "wide-weave" peripheral urbanism; and (iii) to undertake concerted preparation procedures for urban extensions. The urbanization plans should become strategic instruments of land acts aimed at channeling the environmental impact of an ineluctable urban expansion, and at localizing pnmary pnncipal infrastructure and preparatory operations. The regulation of land occupancy is the second traditional function of the urbanization documents. In order to protect the environment, it prohibits, in principle, the settlement of human establishments in "risk" and fragile zones. Most of the African countries inherited legal texts from the colonial era, which allows them to a pply such restrictions, but they are making less and less use of them. The desirable long-term scenano to control land use is integrated in the general strategy proposed for urban environmental management that advocates development of the sense of public involvement through information, sensitization, and mobilization of the civil population. This also supposes the involvement of new urban collective players, such as neighborhood associations and communities, in the urban planning process. Environmental Management in an Urban Setting In the areas where rapid expansion of African cities damages the pre-existing natural environment or increases the risk of natural disasters, or alters living conditions of the urban population, and particularly of the poorest inhabitants, it is water cycle management that poses the most difficulty. In an equatorial or tropical setting, it is primarily an inadequate rainwater drainage that is both the cause of physical degradation (erosion, deterioration of road networks, floods causing loss of public and private investment) and a danger to the health of the urban population (water diseases, proliferation of mosquitoes, etch...). These deteriorations are not caused by a lack of x Urban Planning and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa * Executive Summary urban planning, but rather from insufficient network investment and maintenance, and particularly of primary networks. Over the past two decades, the effort of the States, largely supported by donors, has given urban Africans access to potable water. But there still remain numerous areas which are poorly or not at all supplied, particularly on the outskirts of the cities. Achieving the objective of "potable water for all" by 2025 depends not on urban planning, but on the evolution of the concepts and modalities of imptementation and management of urban water systems. For a long time, sanitation problems-in the manner of developed countries-have been approached in a centralized manner, under the authority of institutions charged with the supply of potable water. Then, in order to overcome the separation in two cities, one, "modern," with networks and treatment plants, the other, "real," left to its fate, alternative methods were designed and tried (soft, appropriate, and intermediate technologies). The generalization of these methods requires a decentralized approach that would take into consideration all of the intervening parties: State, municipality, public utilities, private sector, and population. Another crucial point is the collection and disposal of solid wastes. But, as in the case of sanitation, if we want to achieve a satisfactory result by 2025, the institutional, technical, and financial management of the overall channel (pre-collection, transportation, storage, treatment, and recycling must divert from the centralized approach copied from the industrial countries. With regard to urban transport, it was noted in 1991, after a detailed study covering 12 Sub-Saharan cities, that urban transport services are widely unadapted to the needs of the present African urban Population. In numerous countries, infrastructure dates back to the colonial period and has not been properly maintained or improved since that era. The secondary road network is unadapted and the main network is severely congested and suffers from a high rate of accidents. Moreover, public health officials are becoming concerned about the sanitary consequences of atmospheric pollution due to poor maintenance of vehicles and traffic congestion in the centers of large cities. In each of the 70 future "large cities" or "metropolises" it is important to establish urban transport policies that will meet the inhabitants' need for mobility while reducing the vehicles' impact on the urban environment: (i) better traffic management will reduce congestion and the number and gravity of accidents; (ii) an adequate regulatory and fiscal environment, that has yet to be established in all areas, should enable the private and/or parapublic sector to meet transport needs. Urban Investments and Productivity of the Cities A sustainable development strategy should take into account the role of the cities in supporting economic development. The main obstacle to an increased productivity lALof he cities is insufficient urban infrastructure, which constrains the capability of businesses and households to provide goods and services. Within thirty years, we can expect that "productivity differences" will yield (as is currently happening m the rest of the world) an economic competition among cities to attract private business and investment. xi Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa In order for private investment to take place under favorable conditions, it must be preceded by substantial public investments in roadwork, drainage, water supply, and energy. The public finance crises has dramatically diminished the ability of the States to finance these investments, whose annual total per urban inhabitant is only one quarter of what is was 20 years ago. This led African cities to accumulate a growing backlog in urban infrastructure. To increase the productivity of the cities, we must overcome this setback. Over the next thirty years, the need for infrastructure financing will greatly exceed the internal capacity of the cities. It will, therefore, have to be made up for by both an appropnation from their regional trade with the rest of the world and an appeal for external financing. Recommendations on Information and Programming s far as urban planning is concerned, the importance given to the productivity of cities leads to an ernphasis on two goals: (i) each urban area should establish and A- .maintain a planning and programming system for local public investments which would identify the medium- and long-term needs for each type of infrastructure, classify them by priority, research and fo ow up their financing, and ensure their proper operation by all the concerned agencies; and (ii) establish and manage permanent urban observatories equipped with information systems able to monitor the productivity of each urban area and its hinterland and maintain current records to justify programming of investment and assess its economic and environmental impact. In the industrial countries, it is generally the Municipal Urbanism Agencies that handle this permanent information operation in the preparation and follow up of urban planning documents. In the SSA countries, it is during the intricate preparation of the standard urban planning documents that information on these cities was generally updated. The quasi-general disappearance of this form of planning brought about a loss of knowledge which has not been compensated for by university research. One must admit that today we do know much less than we did ten years ago about the evolution of most of the African cities, as much of the occupation, organization, and equipment of their spaces as of their sociology and economy. Recommendations on Planning n the SSA countries, planning tools and corresponding know-how have become nearly extinct over the last two decades . One wonders in what form and under what .conditions it would be desirable to reconstitute them. In this regard, the donors should quickly resume their dialogues with the States giving this urban planning theme limited content on the one handof overall management of the urban extensions, and on the other, the programming of investments necessary for urban productivity. PLANNING OF EXTENSIONS Priority should be given to the organization of urban extensions. Several attempts have made in the past to set up installation operations based on local know-how and particularly on "customary" land practices. We must acknowledge that they generally did not give the desired results. A great amount of With the exception, in Western Africa, of the Atelier d'urbanisme d'Abidjan. xit Urban Planning and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa * Executive Summary thought, supported by studies and experiments should be pursued jointly with the States to set up the legal framework and establish the procedures that would permit the cities to extend themselves at the least social, economic, and environmental cost. Why not dedicate as much effort to the extensions that we make to restructure the "irregular" neighborhoods? MANAGEMENT AND SET UP OF EXISTING FACILITES: In general, daily management of urban environment and sanitation would certainly not suffice to eliminate the environmental problems and risks generated by Africa's rapid urbanization. Investments to increase the already insufficient road and network capacities are needed to complete it. Programmig that allows the optimum allocation of rare financial resources needs to be established. At the same time, this needed increase in the capacity of the existing networks must not be rendered unattainable by Bank constraints on moving populations affected by these projects. Reflection is needed to reconcile the short- and long-term environmental impacts. xili Introduction A lthough still partly nomadic and just beginning the development of its rural areas, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is in the midst of a rapid urbanization phase. The reasons 'A fo,for this stem from both a dramatic demographic growth and an accelerated integration into the world economy. Even assuming that its future growth rate would be less than that of the past 30 years, the total population of Africa should increase by fivefold within the next 30 years. This evolution will translate into both a threefold increase in the number of cities-particularly of the small- and medium-size cities-and a very large increase in the size of built-up areas. From an environmental point of view, this rapid urban development poses two related problems: First, the extension of cities undermines the pre-existing natural environment and increases the risk of natural disasters (the "green agenda"); meanwhile the deterioration of urban areas puts a burden on the living conditions of city dwellers, especially the poorest of the city dwellers (the "brown agenda"). This study examines to what extent urban planning can solve these problems through (i helping protect the physical and biological environments and (ii) improving the urban milieu. Urban planning, in this context, means both regional planning, including population and land use policies, and urban planning in the proper sense, which aims to organize the development of built-up areas while regulating occupancy and land use. Urban planning is only one part of public action for the city. Its relationship to urban services which improve the environment will also be analyzed, as well as the operation of real estate markets. Finally, the study will review how urban planning can be integrated into the institutional organization of overall urban management. This document has five parts: - an overview of the present status of urban development in Africa and of its evolution perspective until 2025; - a "desirable scenario" of urban planning from an environmental point of view; - considerations about water cycle and urban transport management; - identification of problems encountered in urban planning under the World Bank- supported urban projects; - a strategy for the next 30 years in the area of regional development and urban planning. l Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa 1. Urbanization of Sub-Saharan Africa 1.1 Current Status N ext to demographic growth, urbanization is the most dramatic change that SSA has experienced over the past decades: Over 80 percent rural in 1960, SSA is now IN almost 30 percent urbanized. In 30 years, while its total population has multiplied by 2.5, its urban population has multiplied by five. Compared to the rest of the world, however, SSA remains largely unurbanized: While its share of the total world population rose from 7,5 percent in 1960 to 10 percent in 1990, it still only sheltered 6,5 percent of the world urban population that same year. Table 1: Evolution of the Total Population of Africa in Comparison with the World (in millions of inhabitants) Year 1930 1960 1980 1990 Sub-Saharan Africa 130 226 390 527 Entire World 2,067 3,019 4,447 5,295 Ratio (in percents) 6.5 7.5 8.8 9.9 Source: UN World Urbanization prospects, 1992 Table 2: Evolution of the Urban Population of Africa in Comparison with the World (in millions of inhabitants) Year 1930 1960 1980 1990 Sub-Saharan Africa 8 33 91 149 Entire World 466 1.032 1.752 2,282 Ratio (in percents) 1.7 3.2 5.2 6.5 Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 1992 If, on average, the urbanization rate has doubled between 1960 and 1990 in the entire region, there still remains, beyond differences of statistical definition, significant gaps between the countries-from South Africa, where half the population lives in cities, to Burundi and Rwanda, where this proportion would still be only 5 percent. And three countries (out of 47), South Africa, Nigeria and Zaire, contain 45 percent of the urban population of the region. 2 Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa Table 3: Evolution of the Urban Population of Africa by Subregion (in thousands of inhabitants) Subregion #countries 1960 1980 1990 West Africa 16 11,633 36,786 64,291 Horn of Africa 4 3,401 9,506 14,249 Central Africa 9 5,688 14,723 22,480 East Africa 9 3,004 13,015 24,799 Indian Ocean countries 4 816 2,133 3,489 Southern Africa 5 8,259 lp,873 19,925 Entire SSA 47 32,801 91,036 149,233 Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 1992 Colonization had been accompanied by an intense urban development. A particularly rapid urban growth took place in the region between 1950 and 1980, combining a heavy rural mrigration with a boom in natural demography (at an annual average of 2.8 percent), under a favorable economic climate. In the past ten years, while the demographic rate continued to rise (at an annual average of 3.1 percent), urban growth slowed almost everywhere (to an annual average of 5 percent) under the combined effects of the economic decline and the relative reduction of the rural feeding rigrations. 1.2 Global projection for the year 2025 Sub-Saharan Africa is presently halfway into a demographic transition, and the total population growth rate should decline in the comning years Accordingy to United Nations projections, this rate would only be an average of 2.9 percent annually between 1990 and 2010, and 2.5 percent between 2010 and 2025. Table 4: Projection of the Total Population of Africa by Subregion (in thousands of inhabitants) Year 1990 2010 2025 West Africa 193,653 350,323 510,804 Horn of Africa 84,151 148,785 215,836 Central Africa 70,529 127,358 190,003 East Africa 121,525 218,631 323,001 Indian Ocean countries 13,699 24,875 36,873 Southern Africa 43,134 67,283 85,337 Entire SSA 526,691 937,255 1,361,854 Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 1992 3 Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa But this decline in population growth rate will not prevent Africa from progressively increasing its share of the world population, which would increase from 10 percent in 1990 to 16 percent in 2025. SSA should contribute more than 32 percent to the total world population growth between 2010 and 2025. Table 5: Projection of the Total Population of Africa in Comparison with the World (in millions of inhabitants) Year 1990 2010 2025 Sub-Saharan Africa 527 937 1,3A2 Entire world 5,295 7,149 8,472 Ratio (percents) 9.9 13.1 16.1 Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 1992 Between 1990 and 2025, SSA urban areas should contain close to 550 million people-that is, two-third of the total population growth of the region. While continuin to rise at an average rate of 1.6 percent per year (nearly 280 rnillion additional rural inhabitants between 1990 and 2025), the rural areas will channel fewer and fewer migrations toward the cities. Their growth rate will continue to decline to an annual average of less than 4 percent at the end of this period. And only as of 2020 will the average urban development rate of the region exceed 50 percent; in other words, the city dwellers will be more numerous than the rural dwellers. Table 6: Projection of the Urban Population of Africa in Comparison to the World (in millions of inhabitants) Year 1990 2010 2025 Sub-Saharan Africa 149 387 705 Entire World 2,282 3,778 5,187 Ratio (in percents) 6.5 10.2 13.6 Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 1992 As a result of this rapid growth, SSA's contribution to the world urban population will have doubled between 1990 and 2025. However, in 2025 this region will not have caught up with the average urban development rate of the rest of the world, and will still be one of the least urbanized regions of the planet. Its urban population growth rate will then be comparable to that of Europe in the early 1950s, of Latin America in the early 1960s, or of the Middle East in 1980. According to United Nations forecasts, in 2025 only Southern and South-Eastern Asia would have an average urbanization rate comparable to that of SSA. 4 Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa Table 7: Evolution of Urbanization Rates of the Regions of the World (in percents) Region 1960 1980 1990 2010 2025 Sub-Saharan Africa 14.5 23.3 28.3 41.3 51.8 North Africa & Middle East 33.5 48.0 56.5 68.6 75.5 Southern & South Eastern 17.4 23.3 27.1 37.9 49.3 Asia 25.1 27.4 33.2 48.1 58.4 Eastern Asia 49.4 65.0 71.5 80.4 84.4 Latin America Former USSR, Europe 60.1 69.2 72.0 78.3 83.5 & North America World Total 34.2 39.4 43.1 52.8 61.2 Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 1992 There will still be wide gaps in urbanization rates between African countries in 2025. At that time, South Africa would have reached the urbanization level of Europe in 1980 (70 percent), and West Africa that of Europe in 1960 (60 percent), while the urbanization rate of Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda and Uganda would still be less than 30 percent. Nigeria alone will have 20 percent of the urban population of SSA, while South Africa and Zaire will have about 15 percent, but Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya and Tanzania will together make up close to 20 percent. Table 8: Projection of Urban Population of Africa by Subregion (in thousands of inhabitants) Year 1990 2010 2025 West Africa 64,291 170,151 303,118 Horn of Africa 14,249 38,243 78,937 Central Africa 22,480 56,728 105,424 East Africa 24,799 73,588 142,492 Indian Ocean countries 3,489 9,779 18,793 Southern Africa 19,925 38,449 56,668 Entire SSA 149,233 386,938 705,432 Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 1992 1.3 Urban Networks 1.3.1 General Scenario African urban development will translate into both an increase in the size of existing urban zones, varying according to the cities, and an increase in the number of existing cities, namely by the growth of many villages into small cities. All the urban 5 Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa concentrations in 1990 will not grow at the same rate, and probably none at a constant rate over timne. However, the essence of the future urban network (megalopolises, large and medium cities) will be what has been established over the past 50 years, and will not evolve any more except in volume, the cities growing into categories of increasingly larger size. Table 9: Evolution of the number of SSA cities by size classification Size 1960 1990 2020 More than 5 million 0 0 l inhabitants 1 18 19 1 to 5 million 6 26 75 500,000 to 1 million 39 180 585 100,000 to 500,000 285 790 2,200 20,000 to 100,000 750 2,470 6,700 5,000 to 20,000 Entire SSA 1,081 3,484 9,630 Source: Annex 2 Therefore, a larger part of the urban population will live in large cities. While in 1960 less than 4 percent of urban dwellers lived in cities of over one million inhabitants, this proportion has increased to more than 22 percent in 1990, and would be close to 37 percent m 2020. Table 10: Distribution of SSA urban population by size classification0 iercents) Size 1960 1990 2020 More than 5 million 0.0 0.0 14.6 inhabitants 3.5 22.2 22.3 1 to 5 million 11.2 12.7 9.1 500,000 to 1 million 22.0 25.4 21.5 100,000 to 500,000 39.7 41.5 21.0 20,000 to 100,000 23.6 16.6 11.6 5,000 to 20,000 Entire SSA 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Annex 2 1.3.2 Conurbations and Megalopolises In the oldest urbanized countries, such as South Africa, or the most densely populated, such as Nigeria, real urban zones or conurbations will appear, within which several large cities will only be separated by short distances: 6 Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa An "African megalopolis" should develop around Lagos whose influence already extends beyond the border with Benin. Besides Lagos, between Ibadan and Accra, over a distance of 500 kilometers, four other cities with several millions inhabitants (Ibadan, Cotonou, Lome and Accra) will probably be counted. This "urban region" could total more than 50 million inhabitants, including the citizens of small and medium cities. Such a concentration is comparable in number to the present large megalopolises of the East Coast of the United States, of Europe or of Japan. Several conurbations, whose population could, in the next 30 years, exceed ten million inhabitants each, are in the process of being developed, including: d the Johannesburg-Pretoria urban area; * the Niger delta athe he south of the Ibo country, between Benin City, Port Harcourt, Calabar and Enugu; and * the "copper belt" between Lubumbashi and Ndola. About ten very large urban zones (more than five million inhabitants) will emerge, starting from Kinshasa, Abidjan, Khartoum, Maputo, Addis Ababa, Luanda, Nairobi, and Dar es Salaam. It must be noted that only half of these large urban zones are coastal cities. 1.3.3 Large Cities From 18 in 1990, the number of cities with more than one million inhabitants should reach 70 in 2020 (see list of the 50 largest cities of Africa in the year 2020 in Annex 2). If we set aside the previously mentioned very large cities and those included in the megalopolis surrounding Lagos then (i) close to half of these large cities are State capitals and therefore dominant urban centers; (ii) some of these cities are the port areas of State capitals located in the hinterland (for example, Douala, Mombassa, or Port Sudan); and (iii) the others are secondary cities serving as regional capitals in densely urbanized countries (mainly South Africa and Nigeria). 1.3.4 Small- and Medium-Size Cities Aside from the few urban areas built around mining operations or agrobusiness centers, most of the small cities (5,000 to 50,000 inhabitants) are and will remain public and private service centers in rural zones. The increase in their number, which should rise from 3,000 to 8,000 between 1990 and 2020, is linked to the progressive structuring of the rural sector and the expansion of an agricultural economy geared toward the domestic market. This should translate both into a densification of the agricultural land closest to the large urban markets as well as a reduction in the average radius of influence of these small centers. Medium size cities (50 to 500,000 inhabitants), which will number more than 1,000 in 2020, should accommodate over 175 million new urban dwellers--that is, more than the total urban population of Sub-Saharan Africa in 1990. If they do not succeed, the inhabitants who would have failed to integrate would likely swell the large cities and metropolises, and accentuate the urban "macrocephaly" of the region. 1.4 Urbanization and Social Change Social change affects the rural and urban sectors simultaneouslj, but the city is the focus because it is the point of contact with the outside world an , as a result, is the 7 Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa catalyst of universal modernization. Cities, and particularly capitals and economic metropolises are also the place for strategies and for competition between the various components of the national society. Secondary cities then pass on the expectations and behaviors derived from the largest cities to the small towns and rural zones. 1.4.1 Post-Colonial Heritage The colonial enterprise-administration, trade and religious missions-had organized the cities under a more or less strict segregation between its own facilities and those of the Africans, of which the extreme example was South Africa under apartheid. Even before independence in certain countries, and soon after in the Others, this distinction evolved into opposition between the "formal city," occupied by the modern sector which linked African leaders and administrators with non-Africans who had benefited from western education, and the "real city," occupied mainly by immigrants from the countryside carrying only the clothes on their backs. Because of the migratory flows over the past 30 years, a critical part of urban population is of recent installation, and the percentage of urban dwellers born in the city remains low. Links with the rural sector have remained strong, particularly in the area of food and money circulation. The extended family, derived from the village community, with its obligations and attachments, is far from disappearing in the city, at least for the present generation. But the city, freed from colonial organization, has now become the seat of the real power and social competition which holds the old colonial structures in check and is helping to establish a new social system, moving from colonial to international without having really been national. However, the "native" status still carries much weight in the urban milieu, even in cities mainly populated by non-natives and expatriate foreigners, and notably the coastal cities. In particular, the durability of customary rights, which still rules access to land, ensures urban natives an economic and political influence out of proportion to their numbers. 1.4.2 Which Urban Society in the Next Generation? While there is no shortage of sociological analyses of African cities, few people have taken the opportunity to develop a social prospect for the next 30 years. And yet, within one generation the social structure of the urban population will probably be very different from the one we know today. Specifically: * We should see a greater difference between, on one side, the population of the megalopolises and large cities which, as a result of the decline of the average growth rates, will consist more and more of people born and educated in the city; and, on the other, those of small and medium cities still culturally close to the surrounding rural environment. a The population of large cities will increasingly be a young population, influenced by the media and world culture, cut off from the rural milieu, often without prospect of professional future, and perhaps making up, as in other large Third World metropolises, a critical mass of urban social movements. 8 Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa The question will arise to what extent this new generation of city dwellers will be able to acquire, in two or three decades, the level of citizenship to own their cities and counterbalance the power of the elites, who might use these cities only to gain position in international society. 1.5 Regional Planning, Population and Environment 1.5.1 Small Centers and Rural Development Because the densification of the small and medium cities is tied principally to population movement and economic development of rural zones, urban policy will depend on the land management strategies implemented by the States with donor support. These strategies, which are ultimately geared toward local development, should include an urban component which is compatible with natural resources management, agricultural production, and environmental protection on the local level. Regional planning could contribute to the success of these strategies, both through the production and dissemination of geographic information and by promoting the rationalization of investment choices, especially in the area of transport infrastructures. 1.5.2 Medium-Size CitiesandRegionalPlanning As has been noted by J. M. Cour (WALTPS, Image urbaine 2020), "the multiplication of States at the time of independence, followed by the 'regionalization' within certain States (notably Nigeria) have had an important effect on 'regional planning' by facilitating the emergence of national urban networks centered on the capitals of these States and, as a consequence, promoting the growth of urban centers (becoming capitals) that were not as well situated as others in terms of external exchanges. The quasi equal distribution of the primacy role between Douala and Yaounde, and the dynamism of Kano, in Northern Nigeria, are the most noteworthy examples of this." This constitutes the present grid of medium-size cities destined to become the large cities of the future. As already mentioned, the 1,200 medium-size cities that will have developed in SSA of the year 2020 should accommodate as many inhabitants as the 70 large and very large cities. In order for them to do this, the medium cities not "under the spotlight" as the large cities and metropolises are, should be subject to coherent national policies in the areas of decentralization and urban equipment-in other words, of national planning policies comparable to the regional administrative division of the independence era. These policies will require substantial support from donors. At the local level, these strategies should be combined with urban expansion policies, city equipment programs, and urban environment management policies which involve the local communities. 1.5.3 Large Cities and Urban Planning In the next 30 years, the large cities network will be that inherited from the post- colonial era. Its average growth rate is not remarkably different from that of the total urban population, the evofution being mainly through the reclassification of cities. 9 Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa The most evident environmental problems linked to urbanization appear in these large cities, namely, insufficient supplies of clean drinking water, untreated soFId and liquid wastes which pollute ground water and damage fragile ecosystems in the humid coastal zones, soil erosion, and deforestation linked to the consumption of charcoal. It is, therefore, in the metropolises, conurbations, and large urban zones that the issue of integrating urban planning into the long-term environmental management strategy is most acute. 10 Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa 2. Urban Planning in an Environmental Perspective W hat do we mean by urban planning? If we set aside the issue of land use planning (previously designated as regional planning), practitioners traditionally have distinguished three functions of urban planning: strategic planning of the spatial development and organization of urban zones (structur planning) a control of urban land use Oand use planning) * investment programming for cities in public infrastructures and superstructures. 2.1 Planning Urban Extension Between 1990 and 2020 the population in the 70 largest cities in SSA should increase by about 140 million inhabitants. With an average land occupation of 75 m2 per urban dweller, such an increase corresponds to an extension of urbanized area of about one million hectares in 30 years, of which at least half will be housing. 2.1.1 Should the current situation be prolonged? The present configuration of African cities still carries the mark of a post-colonial planning imported from abroad. With the exception of certain English colonized countries (for example, Kenya and Zimbabwe), cities created during the colonial era were grafted on a rural land ownership system without any individually appropriated lots or boundaries or full-time cultivation, and with no perennial rural track systems that could evolve into a periurban road network. Apart from port and industrial zones and business and residential districts-comparable to corresponding neighborhoods in industrial countries-there are vast areas of cheap housing, continuously evo ving from the traditional construction styles, on land with little or none of the various urban utilities and sometimes not even divided into lots. So-called "irregular" or "spontaneous" neighborhoods-built without any official or customary authorization, often on lots deemed unsuitable for construction (steep slopes or swampy bottoms)-are only a small percent of urbanized land, but sometimes house up to a quarter of the urban population. This situation is a result of the transformation from rural to urban land. In most countries the responsibility for this transformation rests "officially" with the Ministry of Urban Planning. This ministry, on the basis of legal documents (urban zoningplans, cadastre, etc.) is supposed to place more or less equipped lots of urban land on the land market, mapped out in an organized way and free of previous claims. On this basis the "official city" is developed, on which the majority of public investments are directed: paved roads with drainage, public lighting, drinking water supply, solid wastes collection, drainage of used water, etc. Hampered by many constraints, this legal process of land rights transformation is unable to ensure enough land to meet the demand. As a result, an important part (sometimes all) of the urban extensions is governed by the informal market which is rooted in the so-called "customary" management of rural land. It is in this way that the 11 Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa "real city" is developed. Since the authorities generally refuse to legalize methods of occupancy, which escape the administration's control, any improvement of urban services in these zones is usually denied. Because urban planning administrations have no need to keep apace of actual urban needs, present practices will continue, accentuating the duality of urban landscapes- that is, the formal city, well equipped and maintained, will appear more and more as a group of islets of modernization engulfed by immense, poorly organized and poorly supplied urbanized zones. 2.1.2 Desirable Targetfor 2025 Various authors, including A. L. Mabogunje1 and J.-F. Tribillon,2 have offered proposals for organizing African urban growth from an environmental point of view. 1hese can be summarized as follows: LIMIT THE STATE ROLE IN LAND MANAGEMENT: "If it is the responsibility of the State to address land policy, it does not follow that it must claim a monopoly on the supply of urban land" . This may be translated by: recognizing the role of "customary right holders" Lppealing to the private sector for urban development operations i eralizing the real estate market and getting better information on its transactions * delegating iand management authority to the local communities. Indigenous urban dwellers-who, with the growth of the cities, are becoming more and more a minority-have difficulty accepting that ancestral lands become, through the real estate market, an inalienable property of non-natives. They want management to remain in their hands, thereby making them the sole beneficiaries of the value increases from urban growth. It is mainly for this reason, that the elected mayors are indigenous everywhere tebou in Dakar, Ebrie in Abidjan, Ewondo in Yaounde, etc.). Given the role of land in the struggle for social promotion, local elected representatives routinely give special importance to real estate authority. PRACTICE "BROAD WEAVE" PERIURBAN PLANNING: Some authors recommend that, rather than making precise and elaborate plans for an uncertain future, urban extensions should plan only the necessary rights-of-way for the large primary roadways and drainage networks and then materialize them in the field. However, the difficulty of this is that rights-holders of the periurban land will willingly allow irregular settlements on those rights of way (most often by non-natives), knowing that the non-natives may be evicted. 1 A. L. Mabogunje, Perspective on Urban Land and Urban Management Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa, World Bank, Technical Paper no. 196, December 1992. 2 J.-F. Tribillon, Villes africaines: Nouveau manuel d'arnenagement foncier, ADEF, Ministere de la Cooperation, Paris, October 1993. J.-F. Tribillon, op. cit. 12 Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa ENGAGE IN A PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN EXTENSIONS: This would enable the services to be financed from all or part of the appreciation created by the development, while leaving to the drinking water and electricity distributors the duty to ensure, at their expense, the extension of the supply grids as and when needed. Urban plans should not be wonderful color ma s which detail an idealistic image of well equipped and perfectly zoned cities, which wilrnever be built. They should be strategic instrumentsfor action, principally meant to offset the environmental impact of an ineluctable urban expansion. 2.2 Land Use Management 2.2.1 Current Situation Regulating land occupancy is the second traditional function of urban planning. To protect the environment, this regulation should be able to prohibit human settlements in fragile zones. But, in order to be applied effectively, such a regulation assumes that a public authority with the legal means to coerce can oppose such implantation. Most African States legal texts inherited from the colonial era which, in principle, should enable States to enforce such restrictions, are rarely used, including for protecting the environment. The State, heir to the colonial rule, could enforce its authority without control, but the emergence of local democracy has not yet been accompanied by the ability to make African urban society respect a public utility. This is why, contrary to what numerous texts produced by the protectors of the environment say4, it seems useless to plead for more legal and administrative means to control urban land use. Moreover, since illegal occupancy of fragile or risk zones, as well as of land reserved for public purposes, is often the condition of poor urban people, such recommendations conflict with current World Bank policy, which limits any population displacement under its projects to the most extreme cases. 2.2.2 Scenariofor 2025 The desired long-term scenario for controlling land use should be integrated into the urban environment management strategy, which advocates developing an awareness of public utility through informing and mobilizing the civilian society. This presumes the mvolvement of new urban actors, such as neighborhood associations and communities, in the urban planning process. Still, the only means for instilling the notion of urban citizenship in African cities remains democratic representation. This means that, in regard to land use, final arbitration should be the responsibility of the locally elected authorities, thereby reinforcing their legitimacy to medlate between the conflicting interests. But, in countries still imbued with the colonial pact, such a development, which lasted a century in Europe, will not happen overnight, and probably not in one generation. See, for example, the papers on urban agriculture and on coastal zones management produced under the same post-UNCED exercise. 13 Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa Elected municipal authorities should apply land use management on a priority basis to improve living conditions in the under-serviced neighborhoods, whether or not the land status is precarious. However, these operations will be successful only where there are reliable neighborhood-based committees and associations. 2.3 Investment Planning and City Productivity As the World Bank's urban policy paper5 indicates, a sustainable development strategy must take into account the cities' role in economic development and, therefore, that efforts to improve their productivity must be increased. However, the main obstacle to an increase in productivity is inadequate urban infrastructure which constrains the capacity for businesses and households to supply goods and services. Despite all that has been written on this subject, there has been little progress in the idea of urban productivity taking on global characteristics. Within 30 years, however, Africa will see comretition among its cities (as is happening today in the rest of the world) to attract private businesses and investments. Of course, this competition will mainly involve the 70 future metropolises and large urban zones. 2.3.1 Current Situation Private investment must be preceded by adequate public investments in local functions (roads, drainage, water and power supply, transportation, etc.). But, the public finance cnsis has dramatically reduced States' ability to finance these investments, whose annual amount per urban inhabitant is today only one quarter of what it was at the end of the 1970s. This has caused a growing backlog of needed urban infrastructure. 2.3.2 Desirable Targetfor 2025 This gap must be filled in order to increase the cities' productivity. Within the next 30 years, financing needs will largely exceed the savings capacity of the cities, which would then turn to a levy on the trade between their regional hinterlands and the rest of the world as well as appealing for sizable external financing. From the urban planning perspective, making cities productive will require two things: * a planning and programming s stem of public investments in local functions capable of identifying medium- an1do0ng-term needs of various infrastructure; ranking them according to their priorities; following up on their financing; and ensuring their coherent implementation by all the concerned agencies; * urban survey centers equipped with local information systems capable of measuring the productivity evolution of each metropolis with its hinterland and maintaining current records of indicators able to justify the programming of investments and to evaluate their economic impact. Urban Policies and Economic Development: An Agenda for the 90s, World Bank, IUD, 1992. 14 Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa 2.4 Institutional Status of Urban Planning From the colonial era, the States' Urban Planning administrations inherited the land use management and urban planning responsibilities for all the country's cities. The complexity of urban networks (see section 1.3), the progress of decentralization, and the need to involve the community in urban management should lead to a new distribution of roles. * The State should maintain and develop its national responsibilities in the areas of land use and regional planning. This requires an in-depth comprehension of the system that links the space, the population, and the economy, as well as a clear vision of its long- term evolution. The State should also continue to establish the legal and regulatory framework within which the local associations, the social communities, and the private sector would develop their urban planning activities. a In large urban zones, the planning responsibility should be distributed between the State, an urban authority (decentralizect from the State, or urban community), and the local communities. An urban authority is necessary to ensure the or anization of transportation, the planning of urban extensions and investments, and the operations planning. Local communities should only take charge of daily urban planning management and relations with the social commuruties (the neighborhoods). Meanwhile, the metropolitan areas overlapping administrative borders, and the conurbations joining several large cities require a "regional" planning authority capable of ensuring coherence m investments programming, in mass transportation organization, and in spatial expansion of urban zones. * In medium-size cities, where a single municipal authority administers the entire urban territory, responsibility for roadways and drainage, including the primary networks, operations planning, and daily management should fall to the local authority, with the technical assistance of State decentralized services. Such a redistribution of urban planning and land management roles implies a significant increase of human resources assigned to these tasks and, consequently, the need to train and compensate these personnel. 15 Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa 3. Urban Environment Management AIthough dail management of urban environment is not, in the proper sense, the Asubject of this paper, the two main items of the "brown agenda"-water cycle management and urban transportation-are addressed here. 3.1 Water Cycle Management Where the rapid growth of African cities deteriorates the natural environment or increases the risk of natural disasters (the "green agenda"), or impairs living conditions of the urban populations, particularly of the poorest (the "brown agenda"), it is unquestionably water cycle management which poses the most difficulties. 3.1.1 Drainage In equatorial or tropical areas, inadequate rain water drainage is the primary cause of both physical deterioration (erosion, deterioration of roadways, floods causing losses of public and private investments) and harm to the public health (water diseases, mosquitoes' proliferation, etc.). These degradations are not usually attributed to inadequate urban planning, but rather to the poor investment in and maintenance of the networks, particularly the primary ones. The more concentrated rainwater flows caused b urbanization need properly maintained public works. However, the riparians alone have neither the finances nor management capacities to create or maintain public works and, therefore, require the financial support and management abilities of the State and local communities. 3.1.2 Access to Drinking Water Donor supported State efforts over the past two decades have noticeably increased urban Africans' access to drinking water. But there are still many neighborhoods which are poorly supplied or not supplied at all, notably on the outskirts of the cities. Achieving the objective of "drinking water for all" by 2025 does not depend on urban planning, but rather on an evolution in the design and modalities of implementation and management of urban hydraulic systems. Classic hydraulics-based on a standardized distribution networks and well-run cost recovery and management systems-are well adapted to the "formal city." But it must be relayed, in urban extensions, by water supply points managed by neighborhood associations or "informal" businesses. 3.1.3 Disposal of Waste Water and Domestic Excreta Following the model of industrial countries, sanitation problems in Sub-Saharan Africa have been approached in a centralized manner, under the responsibility of institutions in charge of drinking water supply. Then, in an effort to overcome the problem of a separation irito two cities-namely, a "modern" city with sanitation network and waste treatment, and a "real" city abandoned to its fate-alternative measures have been designed and tried (soft, appropriate, or intermediate technologies). 16 Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa But generalizing these measures, which usually involves juxtaposing several technical systems, requires a decentralized approach that takes all parties into account: State, municipalities, public utilities, private sector, and populations. As in other areas of environmental management the role of certain sectors in city sanitation must be recognized in order to sensitize the actors to a new vision of urban sanitation as well as to establish mechanisms to coordinate and finance activities by structures unaccustomed to working together. 3.1.4 Disposal of Solid Wastes Collection and disposal of solid wastes also demand attention. But, as with sanitation, if a working situation is to be reached by 2025, institutional, technical, and financial management of the entire chain (collection, transportation, storage, processing and re-utilization), must abandon the centralized approach copied from industrial countries. 3.2 Urban Transport 3.2.1 Current Status During 1990 and 1991, the World Bank, in collaboration with the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, financed a study on the state of urban transport in 12 Sub-Saharan cities. The analysis found that, typically, in large African cities public transport is inadequate and non-motorized travel is difficult. In addition, the study found that traffic is congested in central zones and that there is a high rate of accidents. The public finance crises which all African States have experienced in the past decade have further constrained the movement of urban dwellers: - The sector administrative organization is fragmented and ineffective. Various institutions intervene, without coordination, in the area of urban transports, and contracts between the State and public operators are never enforced. a Public transport enterprises, which were the backbone of the transport systems in many large African cities, are facing great difficulties-when they have not been simply liquidated (see Table 11). A part of the public enterprises supply shortfall was made up for by an informal supply scattered among numerous operators. But the safety and operating conditions under which these informal transporters are operating only brings a limited and temporary response to a more general shortage. * The motorization rate of African households (three to eight times lower than in Europe) is stagnating or declining. Numerous households must give 20 to 30 percent of their budget to transportation, which limits their motorized mobility, compelling them to walk more often and longer distances. * Public health authorities are becoming concerned about the health consequences of atmospheric pollution caused by poorfy maintained vehicles and traffic congestion in large city centers (Lagos, Nairobi, Dakar, etc.). 17 Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa Table 11: Public Transports Enterprises in Africa: Evolution of Three Indicators 1982-1989 Passengers/km Passengers/Bus/Day Revenues/Expenses Enterprise City 1982 1989 1982 1989 1982 1989 OTUC Douala 7.5 4.1 2.377 1.589 0.95 0.46 OTUC Yaounde 8.7 2.5 960 913 0.67 0.18 OTRA Abidjan 5.0 6.2 1.110 0.62 0.83 OGETRAG Conakry 6.8 1.842 0.62 OTRA Dakar 4.0 775 0.88 OTRAZ Kinshasa 7.0 10.5 1.826 2.500 1.03 0.79 BS Nairobi 4.2 4.6 1.229 1.521 1.03 1.01 STC Lagos 15.8 4.3 1.616 1.150 0.85 0.77 DA DaresSalaam 13.9 8.8 3.154 1.802 1.20 0.86 Source: CFD, Etude sur le transport urbain en Afrique subsaharienne et BCEOM, Rapport final, July 1994. Finally, "...despite their importance, the conditions of the road networks in Africa's urban areas is generally poor. Many cities now lack the resources to maintain infrastructure, and large maintenance and rehabilitation backlogs have built up." 6 In some countries (Cameroon, Congo and Nigeria), the petroleum boom has favored major primary road works (and likewise for Abidjan with the coffee and cocoa boom); but, because of a lack of maintenance, this infrastructure has deteriorated within a few years. 3.2.2 Scenarzofor 2025 In each of the 70 future large cities or metropolises, urban transport policies must be established that reduce transport's impact on the urban environment, while meeting the transport needs of the city dwellers and recovering costs for the public transport sector. Better traffic management would reduce congestion, and by extension, fuel consumption and pollution, as well as the number and severity of accidents. Traffic management includes segregation of heavy traffic, better layout of crossroads, reserved lanes for public transport, traffic and parking police, safety equipment, and inspection of motor ve icles. An adequately regulated fiscal environment, which has yet to be created, should allow the private and parapublic sector (personal, cooperative and capitalist businesses) to meet public transportation needs. It should be adapted to the special service conditions of the poor peripheral zones. But the large metropolises will also need mass transportation with institutional and financial packaging that brings together the private sector with State and local communities under a public "organizing authority" capable of coordinating the different transport modes. R. Barrett, Strategy Paper, presented at the Seminar "Satisfying Urban Public Transport Demands", held in Yaounde, in March 1991. 18 Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa 4. Problems The impressions in this chapter are derived from the following papers: Michael A. Cohen, Learning by Doing: World Bank Lending for Urban Development, 1972-1982, World Bank, February 1983; Per Ljung and Catherine Farvacque, Addressing the Urban Challenge, IUDD, World Bank, March 1988; Twenty Years of Lending for Urban Development 1972-1992: An OED Overview, OED, World Bank, June 1994. 4.1 World Bank Experience in Urban Projects 4.1.1 The Learning Years: 1972-1982 J n 1972, the World Bank began a global approach to urbanization problems in order to help member countries provide urban services in an efficient and equitable way. At _that time, there was a general consensus on the "harmful, inequitable and dangerous character of cities development" which led to placing priority emphasis on shelter issues and access to essential services for the poor. SSA has not been left out, since the Bank's very first urban project was the Sanitary Parcels Project in Senegal (approved in 1972), soon followed by the same kinds of Projects in Botswana (1974 and 1978, in Zambia (1975), in Kenya (1975 and 1978), in 'Tanzania (1975 and 1978), in C6te d'Ivoire (1977), in Burkina Faso (1978), in Lesotho (1980), in Burundi (1980) and in Ethiopia (1983). During the same period the Bank also launched urban projects in Africa integrating several other components: primary transport infrastructure, municipal services, and institutional reinforcement. These projects were in Mali (1979), Cote d'Ivoire (1981), and Mauritius (1981). In 1983, Michael Cohen's report (Learning by Doing... ) marked a turning point in the Bank's urban approach, emphasizing the "catalytic" nature of its projects, which evidently could not satisfy all the needs of the developing cities. This raised the problem of their duplication on a large scale by local authorities. The report therefore prompted a new interest in: l real estate markets, the role of the private sector, and the importance of the financial system that supports them, * effective management of urban infrastructure, a necessary condition of increased economic roductivity in cities, and * the strmengXening of local governments' capacities to mobilize resources to ensure this management. 19 Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa The OED Report mentions that the urban policy documents of the period, including Cohen's report, rarely refer to the environmental theme. "Although the neighborhood rehabilitation or traffic congestion reduction projects undeniably have an impact on the urban populations' health, these components were not explicitly targeted as being "environmental." 4.1.2 Second Generation Projects: 1983-1992 According to the OED Report, the global vision of the urban sector sustained during the period when all urban projects depended on the same department was disrupted by the Bank's successive reorganizations in 1981 and 1987. In Africa, as throughout the world, there has been a certain thematic dispersion of the Bank's urban rojects, some dealing specifically with environment topics (for example, the drainage and household waste project in Lagos); others dealing almost uniquely with institutions (for example, the second Senegalese urban project, approved in 1988); others still with multiple components (such as the second urban project of Cote d'Ivoire, in 1981 and those of Cameroon, in 1983, Djibouti, in 1984, Guinea in 1984, and Ghana, in 1985).'. In March 1988, the Ljung and Farvacque Paper, which dealt both with urban development projects and water supply and sanitation projects, drew two main lessons from the 37 projects completed in 1987: (a) Urban development projects have too many objectives and components, involving too many different institutions, making coordination difficult for the new project offices. (b) Projections of solvable urban services and housing demand were often very optimnistic. This paper also indicates that the 30 new projects approved in 1987 tend to have a broader approach than the previous projects, addressin a sectoral policy reforms and, notably, the reform of the relations between the State and the local governments and the urban services privatization; and (b) municipal resources mobilization by way of components financing the fiscal cadastre. With regard to the latter, the report emphasizes the issue of land use management which becomes a determining factor for housing financing as well as for municipal finances. 4.1.3 Current Problems in Urban Development The World Bank's policy paper published in 1992, Urban Policy and Economic Development: An agenda for the 90s, proposes a strategy to face the challenge of urban growth through: * broadening the Bank's vision of urban matters beyond housing and residential infrastructure issues in order to emphasize the productivity of the urban economy; * fighting against worsening poverty in the cities through productive and labor intensive activities and improved access to urban services for the poor; * halting the deterioration of the urban environment; Only the projects completed as of 30 December 1992 and listed in the OED Report are mentioned here. 20 Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa correcting the serious lack of knowledge of urban problems caused by the reduction of urban research programs in the 80s. Urban environment improvement has thus become one of the major themes of the Bank's urban projects, reflecting the international community's increasmg interest in this subject, which culminated in the Rio Conference of June 1992. While the urban projects of the 1970s and 1980s dealt with the environment without knowing it, the OED Report of June 1994 mentions that all but three of the urban projects approved in 1992, as well as most of those under preparation, focus on environment. These projects deal mainly with "clean" technologies, pollution control, and environment management agencies' reinforcement. 4.2 Urban planning in Bank-Financed Projects 4.2.1 Rise and Fall of Urban Planning To come back to the subject of this paper, that is, the relationship between urban planning and the environment, two comments in the OED Report are worth noting: . The improvement of land use, an important factor in urban environment management, is rarely present in Bank projects. * The Bank's very first urban projects included the financing of urban planning and land use regulation studies, of which there is no trace in the implementation of these components. In the urban policy documents published by the Urban Management Program (UMP), urban planning and land use regulation are almost solely approached from the perspective of regulating the real estate market. In this regard, it is worth reading Policy Paper No. 7 of November 19918, which led to the introduction in some projects of financing land management instruments, such as the cadastre. Moreover, in investment preparation studies, global urban plannin has been replaced by sectoral planning for drinking water, electricity or transport networs. Several urban projects, already approved or still in the preparation stage (Angola, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Guinea, etc.), include financing for urban planning studies oriented either towards the programming of infrastructure or to the organization of extensions. But, if the coherence of the Urban Projects for Africa in the 1970s, is gone, it seems to be because, beyond an obvious rural bias, the Bank still has great difficulty grasping the whole urban system. Perhaps, thanks to the environmental approach, it will be possible to reintegrate the systemic vision of the city in its historic, territorial, and social context into the urban problem, and take into account long-term implications. If public interest is only the result of a political compromise between the various urban stakeholders, then urban planning under the locally elected authorities is the best David E. Dowall and Giles Clarke, A Framework for Reforming Urban Land Policies in Developing Countries, Policy Paper No. 7, Urban Management Program (uMP), November 1991. 21 Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa way to regulate the contradictions that cause urban land occupancy and use to evolve. This alone allows for arbitration: (a) in time, between the short-, medium- and long-term Oiaison with the economy); (b) in space, putting the different scales into coherence; and (c) in society, between the individual aspirations (expressed through the market) and those of the communities or of the society as a whole. For a sustainable urban strategy, African urban planners must recognize that the administrative methods inherited from colonial practices-which leaves decision-making about urban space use to a body of public servants, leaving the rest of the community out of the process-has nothing to do with the concerted urban planning evoked here. 4.2.2 Urban Information It has been indicated earlier that making reasoned and concerted urban management and planning decisions, and assessing the impact of these decisions, requires permanent information on the physical, social, and economic aspects of urban zones. Various authors mention this need: 3 In the aforementioned UMP Policy Paper No. 7, on urban land policies9, David E. Dowall recommends as a priority the establishment of permanent land market assessment systems. - The authors of the UMP Policy Paper No. 18, on environmental strate *es10, advocate various instruments to promote information on environmental conditions, such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Land Information Systems (LIS), or Environmental Impact Assessments (ELA). In industrial countries, the municipal planning agencies generally provide this permanent information within the framework of urban planning documents. In SSA countries, it was usually during the preparation of traditional urban planning documents that the information on cities was updated. The widespread disappearance of this form of planning brought with it a loss of knowledge not relayed through university research. Today there is much less knowledge than ten years ago on n of most African cities, as much in the occupancy, organization, an equipment of their space, as in their sociology and economy. in the 2025 scenario, reconstitution and permanent upgrading of a geo-referenced urban information system seems to be indispensable, at least for the 70 largest urban zones. 4.3 Financing a Decentralized Urban Management From a sustainable development perspective, the general tendency is to diseng the States from the management of urban, land, and environment services and to give the 9 op. cit. 10 Toward Environmental Strategies for Cities, Policy Paper No. 18, UMP. 22 Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa responsibility to local communities. But is it reasonable to expect, in terms of human and financial resources, a rapid empowerment of these local communities? 4.3.1 Current Status Putting together some available information on the financial capacity of the local sector in francophone Africa" shows that it varies within a narrow range in comparison to the GDP and the national budget.'2 It should be remembered, however, that in France the finances of local communities represent 10 percent of the GDP, 40 percent of the national budget, and 75 percent of the public investments. But this financial weight of the African local communities should be analyzed in relation to the internal fiscal yield which is as weak for the State as for the conmmunes, particularly because it depends almost solely on formal sector businesses and wage-earners. Table 12: Financial Strength of the Local Sector in Five Francophone African Countries. Burkina Cote Countries Benin Faso Carneroon d'Ivoire Senegal Population (millions) 4.9 9.9 11.9 12.4 7.2 Total local budgets (FCFA 2 3 18 34 17 billions) 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.9 Percentage of GDP 2.4 2.4 4.3 5.5 5.0 Percentage of State budget 13.9 12.3 17.0 17.7 16.2 Percentage of public lev) Source: BREEF Report, op. cit. On average, municipalities have between FCFA 2,000 and 3,000 per annum, per inhabitant to operate with and invest. This figure reaches about FCFA 10,000 for the very large economic capitals, such as Abidjan, Dakar, and Douala. However, these figures have tended to decrease under the concurrent pressures of the demographic boom, the States' economic and financial crisis, and inadequate management methods. Local investments then become exceptional, or are State financed with donor support. The gap between the amounts mobilized by these backers to finance local investments and the local financial capacity raises the problem of the absorption capability of recurrent charges by the municipalities, as well as the real capacity to act as project owner. 11 cFD/BREEF, Guide d'anatyse des budgets et informations financieres sur les collectivites locales en Afrique, rapport de premiere phase, avril 1994. 12 In Kenya, local budgets represent 0.5 percent of GDP and 4 percent of the national budget. 23 Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa Faced with this situation and with the weakness of municipal technical services, the World Bank has chosen, for the implementation of its urban investment projects in francophone African countries, to appeal to local enterprises and to multiply the number of private agencies acting directly as project owners (the AGETIP model). 4.3.2 What Futurefor Local Resources? Until now, decentralization-that is, asserting the financial autonomy of local communities-has rarely been accompanied by new ideas on mobilizing local resources. When there has been any reflection on this, it is under the pressure of certain experiences and failures, for example: X The repeated failures of the multifunctional cadastre led donors to urge the States to use simplified procedures for identifying and evaluating the tax base. * Making the communities appropriate the works, largery financed by donors but which the communities will later have to maintain, requires a minimum of self-financing of these projects. Now, there remains to establish the reforms for reorganizing the local resources systems, including: * a deep reform of real estate taxation systens to better adapt them to the local context * a development of local, indirect taxation * a reform of State budget transfers and of financial relations between State and municipalities. Without such reforms, it seems useless to recommend more disengagement of State government from the management of urban, land, and environmental services. 13 For example, by the retrocession of all or part of the VAT, as is the case in Morocco. 24 Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa 5. Conclusion: A Strategy for the Next 30 Years T he three p revious-chapters dealt successively with the urbanization future of Africa, the urban pianning in an environmental perspective, and the problems encountered in World BarA urban projects. Based on these analyses, this conclusion highlights the major items to be discussed wth the SSA borrowing countries in order to implement an adequate urban planning that will care for the environment while achieving sustainable development. 5.1 Decentralization and Urban Planning In the next 30 years, sustainable development in SSA will require more sophisticated national urban networks, which will have to be translated into: * a solidifying of the network of small cities which support the organization and economic development of the rural zones, * the emergence of a network of medium-size cities, intermediate between the rural zones and the large cities, * a planned development of large cities and metropolises to enhance their productivity m relation to the world economy. To achieve this objective, the countries, with donor support, must link their decentralization policy to a real urban planning strategy which enables them to allocate their investment and management resources to the three levels of their urban network. 5.1.1 Small Cities and Rural World Inserting a small cities policy into urban planning strategies assumes that it is possible to finance facilities and manage urban services to the extent that they promote economic development in the rural zones which they serve. This requires a specific approach, in the areas of decentralization and of participation of the concerned populations, different from that adopted for the medium-size cities and metropolises. In this rural space planning strategy, the equipment of these small cities should naturally find its place in the land management projects whose objective is local economic development through organization and planning of the rural landscape. These projects should, therefore, include an urban development component in addition to natural resources management, agricultural production, and local environment protection. In the Bank this means that the responsibility for small cities development should be given to the Agriculture and Environment divisions rather than to the Infrastructure divisions. 5.1.2 Medium Cities Land planning policies should aim at having secondary urban centers be economic and social relays between the metropolises and the rural world, as well as helping to. settle urban immigrants. In order to do this, these centers must be both well located in relation to the large transport infrastructures, and in the heart of agricultural regions with which they can maintain a exchange of goods and services. 25 Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa This implies that borrowers and donors agree to establish and implement a specific policy for resources allocation and special decentralization terms which alow the State, the communities and the economic actors to be involved in the planning and management of these intermediate cities. State services must be decentralized in order to organize trade relations between these secondary centers and their hinterland, and to control land management and urban extension planning. 5.1.3 Large Urban Zones To plan and organize the growth of the metropolises and large cities, State actions must be combined with a broader control of environmental management by inhabitants. This suggests a clear distribution of responsibilities and coordination between the central and decentralized State services, the local communities, and the private sector. One of the major problems will be the distribution of tasks for investment programming and large urban services management (drinking water distribution, sarntation, solid waste collection and treatment, urban transport, etc.) between local communities and institutions linking State and communities whose authority will extend over the entire urban zone. This will be even more difficult in megalopolises, which extend over several administrative areas, even several countries. It has been previously mentioned that most African cities are colonial creations that the African States inherited at independence. They are largely populated by recently immigrated non-natives who remain very attached to their rural community. These recent city dwellers have not yet "adopted" the cities, whose equipment and management remains, in their eyes, the responsibility of the State. Even in the English speaking countries, where a form of indirect rule is still practiced, local governments are considered more like offshoots of the State than an emanation of an urban community. The appropriation of cities, particularly of the largest cities, by their inhabitants is the most important problem for the medium- and long-term future of these cities. Only by acquiring urban citizenship will the urban dweller participate in fiscally managing society, urban environment, and resource mobilization. In this regard, having loc representation without questioning the quality of the representation might lead to deadlocks comparable to those encountered at the State level. 5.1.4 National Strategy Combining decentralization and territorial planning at each of the three levels assumes that the State can formulate a draft social projection integrating the spatial dimension of development-and obtain the population's approval for it. This will require the governments, their central administrations, and their decentralized services to act through the various sectors (environment, agriculture, infrastructure, health, education, administrative management of populations, etc.) and coordinate the various geographical locations. To acquire spatial management capabilities, the States, with the financial help of donors, should: (a) establish and maintain spatial information programming and 26 Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa management tools 4, (b)create ways to integrate the spatial dimension of development into daily decision-making, (c)train public servants in procedures and use of the information systems. 5.2 Urban Planning In SSA countries, plannin5 tools and related know-how have practically disappeared over the last two decades. The question now being asked is under what form and conditions is their reconstruction desirable. In this regard, the donors should resume their dialogue with the States about the concerted management of ukban extensions and the public investments needed for urban productivity. 5.2.1. Planning ofExtensions In large and medium-sized cities, priority must be given to the organization of urban extensions. Several attem ts have been made in the past years to launch upgrading operations based on local know-how, and notably on customary land practices, but these effort generally have not produced results. An important reflection and experimentation effort should be pursued, jointly with the States, to create the legal framework and to develop the procedures which will allow cities to expand at the least social, economic, and environmental cost. Why not devote as much effort to the extensions that was spent for the restructuring of informal settlements? 5.2.2. Managing and Organizing the Existing Daily management of urban environment and sanitation will not be enough to eliminate environmental problems brought about by the rapid urbanization of Atrica. Investments will be needed to allow capacity increases of already inadequate roads and utility networks. Programming that enables an optimal allocation of the scarce financial resources is essential. But, at the same time, the self-imposed Bank limitations on population displacements under its projects should not prevent this needed capacity increase of existing networks. It seems that consideration should be given to this aspect in order to reconcile the short- and long-term environmental impacts. 5.3 Urban Information When the desirable next-generation scenarios were Presented in the preceding chapter, it was mentioned that each large urban zone should have an observation center 14 The Geographical Information System (GIs) of the WALTPS Study, with its spatial demographic and economic base and maps, could serve as a foundation to establish local development dashboards in West Africa, and be replicated in other subregions. 15 With the exception, in West Africa, of the Atelier d'urbanisme d'Abidjan. 27 Building Blocks for Environmentally Sustainable Development in Africa endowed with local urban information systems able to assess the urban environment evolution and the productivity of the cities. It will be necessary to define under which institutional terms and with which pernanent resources these urban information systems could be established and operated over the long term. Should they depend on the central governments or be entrusted to local communities? What could they offer to other users (private, social, etc.)? What financial and technical assistance should donors provide? 28 Annex 1 Detailed Tables on Urbanization with Comments 1. Content of the Annex This Annex groups the detailed tables to which reference is made in Chapter 1, "Urbanization of Sub-Saharan Africa" as follows. 1.1 Tables Extractedfrom "UN World Urbanization Prospects, 1992": * Total Population of the 47 Sub-Saharan African Countries: Years 1960, 4980, 1990, 2010, and 2025; * Urban Population of the 47 Sub-Saharan African Countries: Years 1960, 1980, 1990, 2010, and 2025; * JUrbanization Rates of the 47 Sub-Saharan African Countries: Years 1960, 1980, 1990, 2010, and 2025; and Total Population, Urban Population and Urbanization Rates of the Six Large Regions of the Wor[d: Years 1960, 1980, 1990, 2010, and 2025. 1.2 Tables Extracted from the WAL7PS14, Comments on the Data Bank, July 1994: * TTotal population of the 19 WALTPS study countries : Years 1960, 1980, 1990, and 2020; * Urban population of the 19 WALTPS study countries: Years 1960, 1980, 1990, and 2020; * Urbanization rates of the 19 WALTPS study countries: Years 1960, 1980, 1990, and 2020. 2. Comments 2.1 Lack of Homogeneity of the Sources Used by the United Nations Statistical documents published by the Population Division of the United Nations' Secretariat are based on official information supplied by each of the member countries, which do not use homogeneous statistical definitions: * Population counts are done at different times in the various countries and according to vanable methods. The most typical example is Nigeria, where the censuses have had an eventful history leading, in 1973, to a great national controversy, and, in 1991, to a sizable downward revision of the country's population. * Urban population is defined by each country according to its own criteria: the size of towns classified as urban varies from country to country (from 2,000 inhabitants for Sierra Leone to 14 Western Africa Long Term Perspecive Sty. 29 Annex 1 20,000 inhabitants in Nigeria). Others have a strictly administrative definition of the urban milieu, which raises the problem of admninistrative city limits and their evolution over time. 2.2 Definition Used by the WAL7PS The WALTPS used a similar definition of urban opulation for each of the 19 countries included in its zone: the urbanized population in a; centers including more than 5,000 inhabitants. The urban populations of the 19 countries at different dates of reference were extrapolated or interpolated from the results of the various censuses used for the study. 2.3 Comparison of the United Nations 1992 Study and WAL7PS * Census data: A comparison of the total and urban population, for 1960, 1980, and 1990, in the 19 WALTPS countries (Table A1.1) shows that, apart from the Nigerian case, the gaps between the two sources are small. * Projections: Comparison of the projections for the year 2020 Cfable A1.2) shows that: for the 15 West African countries (besides Nigeria), the UN projection is 10% higher than that of WALTPS, while it differs little for the Central African countries (Cameroon, Chad and CAR); for Nigeria, the UN forecast for 2020 is 25 percent higher than the WALTPS projection, while the two urban population forecasts are almost identical. For the total population the gap is only the trends extension of estimate differences for the period 1960-1990, while for the urban population the similarity results from the compensation between different definitions of the urban population, and a higher urbanization rate in the WALTPS. 3. Conclusion The comparison between the UN and the WALTPS projections shows that the diversity of official definitions or statistics used by the different countries can lead, according to the method involved, to significant estimate gaps. The important homogenization work realized in the WALTPS would deserve to be extended to all of SSA. Meanwhile, in this note, the UN data and projections have been adopted, which have the advantage of covering, with a single method, all the SSA countries. 30 Annex 1 Table Al.1: Comparison of Estimated Total and Urban Populations of UN Study and WALTPS for 19 SSA Countries for the Years 1960, 1980, and 1990 (in thousands of inhabitants) Total Population Source 1960 1980 1990 15 West African countries UN 37,863 62,824 85,111 WALTPS 38,571 63,334 81,466 Gap -708 -510 +3,645 3 Central African countries UN 6,826 15,445 20,085 (Cameroon, Chad, CAR) WALTPS 8,767 15,123 19,379 Gap -1,941 +322 +706 Nigeria UN 42,305 78,430 108,542 WALTPS 39,843 70,370 93,517 Gap +2,462 +8,060 +15,025 Urban Population 15 West African countries UN 5,549 15,547 26,128 WALTPS 5,286 16,222 25,343 Gap +263 -675 +785 3 Central African countries UN 1,291 4,523 7,801 (Camneroon, Chad, CAR) WALTPS 1,217 4,051 6,775 Gap +74 +472 + 1,026 Nigeria UN 6,084 21,239 38,163 WALTPS 5,978 29,782 45,493 Gap + 106 -8,543 -7,320 Table Al.2: Comparison of Estimated Total and Urban Populations of UN Study and WALTPS for 19 SSA Countries for the Year 2020 (in thousands of inhabitants) Source UN STUDY WALTPS Gap Total populaion: 15 West African countries 199,594 181,747 +17,847 3 Central African countries 44,019 44,251 -232 Nigeria 255,618 204,156 +51,262 Urban population. 15 West African countries 105,487 94,923 + 10,574 3 Central African countries 27,551 25,666 + 1,885 Nigeria 149,077 149,598 -521 31 Annex 1 Table A1.3a: SSA Total Population According to the UN 1992 Projections (in thousands of inhabitants) Country 1960 1980 1990 2010 2025 Benin 2,237 3,459 4,622 8,357 12,354 Burkina Faso 4,452 6,957 8,993 15,474 22,633 Cape Verde 196 289 363 600 774 C6te d'Ivoire 3,799 8,194 11,980 23,657 37,942 Gambia 352 641 861 1,392 1,875 Ghana 6,774 10,736 15,020 26,594 37,988 Guinea 3,136 4,461 5,755 10,301 15,088 Guinea Bissau 542 795 964 1,473 1,978 Liberia 1,039 1,876 2,575 4,829 7,234 Mali 4,375 6,863 9,214 16,736 24,580 Mauritania 991 1,551 2,024 3,491 4,993 Niger 3,028 5,586 7,731 14,326 21,287 Nigeria 42,305 78,430 108,542 197,370 285,823 Senegal 3,187 5,538 7,327 12,352 17,078 Sierra Leone 2,241 3,263 4,151 6,944 9,800 Togo 1,514 2,615 3,531 6,427 9,377 Total West Africa 80,168 141,254 193,653 350,323 510,804 Djibouti 80 304 440 787 1,159 Ethiopia 24,191 38,749 49,831 89,038 130,674 Somalia 3,785 6,713 8,677 15,915 23,401 Sudan 11,165 18,681 25,203 43,045 60,602 Total Horn of Africa 39,221 64,447 84,151 148,785 215,836 Angola 4,816 6,993 9,194 17,660 26,619 Caineroon 5,296 8,655 11,524 20,225 29,262 C. African R. 1,534 2,313 3,008 4,882 7,046 Chad 3,064 4,477 5,553 9,319 12,907 Congo 988 1,669 2,229 3,884 5,757 Gabon 486 806 1,159 2,052 2,869 Equat. Guinea 252 217 352 574 798 Sao T. & Pr. 64 94 119 174 215 Zaire 15,333 27,009 37,391 68,588 104,530 Total Afrique Centrale 31,833 52,233 70,529 127,358 190,003 Burundi 2,940 4,130 5,492 9,323 13,392 Kenya 8,332 16,632 23,585 44,387 63,826 Malawi 3,529 6,183 9,583 16,455 24,923 Mozarnbique 7,461 12,095 14,200 25,406 36,290 Rwanda 2,742 5,163 7,027 13,306 20,595 Tanzania 10,205 18,581 25,993 48,371 74,172 Uganda 6,562 13,119 17,560 30,690 45,933 Zambia 3,141 5,738 8,138 13,885 20,981 Zimbabwe 3,812 7,126 9,947 16,808 22,889 Total East 32 Annex I Country 1960 1980 1990 2010 2025 Africa 48,724 88,767 121,525 218,631 323,001 Comoro 215 383 543 1.079 1,646 Madagascar 5,312 8,790 12,010 22,431 33,746 Maurice 660 966 1,075 1,284 1,397 Seychelles 42 62 71 81 84 Total Indian Ocean Africa 6,629 10,201 13,699 24,875 36,873 South Africa 17,396 29,529 37,959 58,446 l 73,211 Botswana 481 902 1,238 2,136 2,853 Lesodho 870 1,339 1,747 2,821 3,783 Namibia 633 1,066 1,439 2,610 3,751 Swaziland 326 565 751 1,270 1,739 Total Southern Africa 19,706 33,401 43,134 67,283 85,337 Total SSA 225,881 390,303 526,691 937,255 1,361,854 Table Al.3b: SSA Urban Population According to the UN 1992 Projections (in thousands of inhabitants) Country 1960 1980 1990 2010 2025 Benin 205 1,093 1,765 4,434 7,819 Burkina Faso 209 589 1,365 5,178 10,282 Cape Verde 32 68 104 261 426 C6te d'Ivoire 733 2,849 4,843 12,787 24,332 Gambia 44 117 195 511 912 Ghana 1,575 3,346 5,107 12,389 21,934 Guinea 310 852 1,484 4,289 8,039 Guinea Bissau 74 134 191 481 882 Liberia 194 656 1,169 3,057 5,183 Mali 484 1,267 2,193 6,374 12,280 Mauritania 57 450 947 2,281 3,657 Niger 175 738 1,506 4,932 9,875 Nigeria 6,084 21,239 38,163 100,836 176,181 Senegal 1,017 1,988 2,919 6,389 10,618 Sierra Leone 292 801 1,335 3,343 5,792 Togo 148 599 1,005 2,609 4,906 Total West Africa 11,633 36,786 64,291 170,151 303,118 Djibouti 40 - 224 355 682 1,040 Ethiopia 1,556 4,062 6,110 17,354 39,061 Somalia 655 1,492 2,101 5,397 10,735 Sudan 1,150 3,728 5,683 14,810 28,101 Total Horn of Africa 3,401 9,506 14,249 38,243 78,937 33 Annex 1 Country 1960 1980 1990 2010 2025 Angola 503 1,468 2,602 7,801 14,799 Cameroon 734 2,719 4,643 11,600 19,764 C. African R. 348 886 1,404 3,001 4,945 Chad 209 918 1,754 4,628 7,798 Congo 315 598 903 2,097 3,688 Gabon 85 288 529 1,246 1,996 Equat. Guinea 64 59 101 231 414 Sao T. &Pr. 10 31 50 101 145 Zaire 3,420 7,756 10,494 26,023 52,075 Total Central Africa 5,688 14,723 22,480 56,728 105,424 Burundi 60 177 293 912 2,233 Kenya 613 2,675 5,559 17,619 32,856 Malawi 155 565 1,132 3,450 7,899 Mozambique 274 1,586 3,799 12,818 22,171 Rwanda 66 245 393 1,181 3,086 Tanzania 481 2,471 5,407 17,564 35,785 Uganda 333 1,154 1,960 5,761 13,208 Zambia 541 2,285 3,417 6,896 12,576 Zimbabwe 481 1,587 2,839 7,387 12,678 Total East Africa 3,004 13,015 24,799 73,588 142,492 Comoro 21 89 151 451 879 Madagascar 565 1,608 2,860 8,668 17,038 Maurice 219 409 436 600 809 Seychelles 11 62 42 60 67 Total Indian Ocean Africa 816 2,133 3,489 9,979 18,793 South Africa 8,113 14,216 18,679 34,775 50,223 Botswana 8 136 309 1,002 1,656 Lesotho 30 177 339 996 1,789 Namibia 95 243 400 1,100 2,016 Swaziland 13 101 198 576 984 Total Southern Africa 8,259 14,873 19,925 38,449 56,668 Total SSA 32,801 91,036 149,233 386,938 705,432 34 Annex 1 Table A1.3c: SSA Urbanization Rates According to the UN 1992 Projections (in percents) Country 1960 1980 1990 2010 2025 Benin 9.2 31.6 38.2 53.1 63.3 Burkina Faso 4.7 8.5 15.2 33.5 45.4 Cape Verde 16.3 23.5 28.7 43.5 55.0 C6te d'Ivoire 19.3 34.8 40.4 54.1 64.1 Gambia 12.5 18.3 22.6 36.7 48.6 Ghana 23.3 31.2 34.0 46.6 57.7 Guinea 9.9 19.1 25.8 41.6 53.3 Guinea Bissau 13.7 16.9 19.8 32.7 44.6 Liberia 18.7 35.0 45.4 63.3 71.6 Mali 11.1 18.5 23.8 38.1 50.0 Mauritania 5.8 29.0 46.8 65.3 73.2 Niger 5.8 13.2 19.5 34.4 46.4 Nigeria 14.4 27.1 35.2 51.1 61.6 Senegal 31.9 35.9 39.8 51.7 62.2 Sierra Leone 13.0 24.5 32.2 48.1 59.1 Togo 9.8 22.9 28.5 40.6 52.3 Average West Afnica 14.5 26.0 33.2 48.6 59.3 Djibouti 50.0 73.7 80.7 86.7 89.7 Ethiopia 6.4 10.5 12.3 19.5 29.9 Somalia 17.3 22.2 24.2 33.9 45.9 Sudan 10.3 20.0 22.5 34.4 46.4 Average Horn of Africa 8.7 14.8 16.9 25.7 36.6 Angola 10.4 21.0 28.3 44.2 55.6 Cameroon 13.9 31.4 40.3 57.4 66.9 C. African R. 22.7 38.3 46.7 61.5 70.2 Chad 6.8 20.5 31.6 49.7 60.4 Congo 31.9 35.8 40.5 54.0 64.1 Gabon 17.5 35.7 45.6 60.7 69.6 Equat. Guinea 25.4 27.2 28.7 40.2 51.9 Sao T. & Pr. 15.6 33.0 42.0 58.0 67.4 Zaire 22.3 28.7 28.1 37.9 49.8 Average Central Africa 17.9 28.2 31.9 44.5 55.5 Burundi 2.0 4.3 5.3 9.8 16.7 Kenya 7.4 16.1 23.6 39.7 51.5 Malawi 4.4 9.1 11.8 21.0 31.7 Mozambique 3.7 13.1 26.8 50.5 61.1 Rwanda 2.4 4.7 5.6 8.9 15.0 Tanzania 4.7 14.8 20.8 36.3 48.2 Uganda 5.1 8.8 11.2 18.8 28.8 Zambia 17.2 39.8 42.0 49.7 59.9 Zimbabwe 12.6 22.3 28.5 43.9 55.4 Average East Africa 6.2 14.7 20.4 33.7 44.1 35 Annex 1 Country 1960 1980 1990 2010 2025 Comoro 9.8 23.2 27.8 41.8 53.4 Madagascar 10.6 18.3 23.8 38.6 50.5 Maurice 33.2 42.3 40.6 46.7 57.9 Seychelles 26.2 43.5 59.2 74.1 79.8 Average Indian Ocean Africa 13.1 20.9 25.5 39.3 51.0 South Africa 46.6 48.1 49.2 59.5 68.6 Botswana 1.7 15.1 25.0 46.9 58.0 Lesotho 3.4 13.2 19.4 35.3 47.3 Namibia 15.0 22.8 27.8 42.1 53.7 Swaziland 4.0 17.9 26.4 45.4 56.6 Southern Africa Average 41.9 44.5 46.2 57.1 66.4 SSA Average 14.5 23.3 28.3 41.3 51.8 Table A1.4a: World Total Population According to the UN 1992 Projections (in thousands of inhabitants) Region 1960 1980 1990 2010 2025 SSA 225,881 390,303 526,691 937,255 1,361,854 North Africa & Middle East 109,806 186,788 247,180 393,814 506,415 South & South- East Asia 820,895 1,309,317 1,635,424 2,368,526 2,851,431 East Asia 791,583 1,176,349 1,350,617 1,629,421 1,762,179 Europe, USSR, North America 838,045 1,001,868 1,067,122 1,183,936 1,246,752 Latin America 216,655 358,925 441,066 600,380 701,557 World Total 3,018,974 4,446,859 5,295,300 7,149,499 8,472,446 36 Annex 1 Table A1.4b: World Urban Population According to the UN 1992 Projections (in thousands of inhabitants) Region 1960 1980 1990 2010 2025 SSA 32,801 91,036 149,233 368,938 705,432 North Africa & Middle East 36,754 89,711 139,615 270,008 382,371 South & South- East Asia 142,885 305,602 442,580 897,073 1,404,467 East Asia 198,447 322,188 448,951 784,052 1,028,870 Europe, USSR, North America 503,708 693,716 768,220 927,519 1,041,062 Latin America 107,098 233,281 315,478 482,415 592,332 World Total 1,032,266 1,752,063 2,282,367 3,778,464 5,187,134 Table A1.4c: World Urbanization Rates According to the uN 1992 Projections (in percents) Region 1960 1980 1990 2010 2025 SSA 14.5 23.3 28.3 41.3 51.8 North Africa & Middle East 33.5 48.0 56.5 68.6 75.5 South & South- East Asia 17.4 23.3 27.1 37.9 49.3 East Asia 25.1 27.4 33.2 48.1 58.4 Europe, USSR, North America 60.1 69.2 72.0 78.3 83.5 Latin America 49.4 65.0 71.5 80.4 84.4 World Average 34.2 39.4 43.1 52.8 61.2 37 Annex 1 Table Al.5a: West Africa Total Population According to the WALTPS Projections (in thousands of inhabitants) Country 1960 1980 1990 2020 Benin 2,038 3,451 4,499 10,122 Burkina Faso 5,319 7,187 8,681 16,337 Cape Verde 200 296 323 507 C6te d'Ivoire 3,183 8,069 11,443 30,454 Gambia 278 627 925 2,170 Ghana 6,772 11,176 14,466 33,938 Guinea 3,194 4,460 5,270 11,868 Guinea Bissau 524 787 964 1,813 Liberia 1,041 1,913 2,648 6,215 Mali 4,863 6,759 8,184 16,303 Mauritania 1,000 1,549 1,964 3,738 Niger 3,774 5,824 7,678 14,605 Nigeria 39,843 70,370 93,517 204,156 Senegal 2,852 5,598 7,275 17,577 Sierra Leone 2,064 3,040 3,688 7,910 Togo 1,469 2,598 3,454 8,190 Subtotal (16 countries) 78,414 133,104 174,979 385,903 Cameroon 4,479 8,639 11,484 29,287 Central African Republic 1,249 1,996 2,241 5,104 Chad 3,039 4,488 5,454 9,860 Subtotal (3 countries) 8,767 15,123 19,179 44,251 Total WALTPS (19 countries) 87,181 148,227 194,158 430,154 Table Al.5b: West Africa Urban Population According to the WALTPS Projections (in thousands of inhabitants) Country 1960 1980 1990 2020 Benin 207 880 1,685 6,502 Burkina Faso 526 1,335 1,952 6,872 Cape Verde 35 69 103 250 C6te d'Ivoire 533 3,156 5,335 21,669 Gambia 17 127 294 1,290 Ghana 1,545 3,314 4,484 16,607 Guinea 429 908 1,488 5,974 Guinea Bissau 43 146 252 812 Liberia 108 381 692 2,378 Mali 270 1,264 1,793 6,319 Mauritania 94 489 830 2,552 Niger 200 708 1,224 4,331 Nigeria 5,978 29,782 45,493 149,598 Senegal 788 2,103 3,124 11,586 Sierra Leone 238 718 1.097 3,820 38 Annex 1 Country 1960 1980 1990 2020 Togo 253 624 990 3,961 Subtotal (16 countries) 11,264 46,004 70,836 244,521 Cameroon 779 2,492 4,461 17,846 Central African Republic 267 746 1,012 3,189 Chad 171 813 1,302 4,631 Subtotal (3 countries) 1,217 4,051 6,775 25,666 Total wALrps (19 countries) 12,481 50,055 77,611 270,187 Table Al.5c: West Africa Urbanization Rates According to the WALTPS Projections (in percents) Country 1960 1980 1990 2020 Benin 10.2 25.5 37.5 64.2 Burkina Faso 9.9 18.6 22.5 42.1 Cape Verde 17.5 23.3 31.9 49.3 C6te d'Ivoire 16.7 39.1 46.6 71.2 Gambia 6.1 20.3 31.8 59.4 Ghana 22.8 29.7 31.0 48.9 Guinea 13.4 20.4 28.2 50.3 Guinea Bissau 8.2 18.6 26.1 44.8 Liberia 10.4 19.9 26.1 38.3 Mali 5.6 18.7 21.9 38.8 Mauritania 9.4 31.6 42.3 68.3 Niger 5.3 12.2 15.9 29.7 Nigeria 15.0 42.3 48.6 73.3 Senegal 27.6 37.6 42.9 65.9 Sierra Leone 11.5 23.6 29.7 48.3 Togo 17.2 24.0 28.7 48.4 Average (16 countries) 14.4 34.4 40.5 63.4 Caineroon 17.4 28.8 38.8 60.9 Central African Republic 21.4 37.4 41.5 62.5 Chad 5.6 18.1 23.9 47.0 Average (3 countries) 13.9 26.8 35.3 58.0 Average WALTPS (19 countries) 14.3 33.6 39.9 62.8 39 Annex 2 Annex 2 City Networks: Tables and Comments 1. Content of the Annex This Annex groups the detailed tables mentioned in paragraph 1.3, "Urban Networks". 1.1 Fifty Biggest SSA Cities in 2010. This table projects the estimated evolution of these cities' populations from 1960 to 2020. 1.2 Cities Distribution per Size in SSA. This table shows the estimated distribution of all SSA cities having more than 5,000 inhabitants for the years 1960, 1990, and 2020. It also indicates how the urban population is distributed between these cities according to their size for the same years. 2. Comments on methodology. There no data on the size distribution, existing and projected, of all the African cities. The attached tables are the result of a compilation of various available sources: - UN World Urbanization Prospects, 1992 for cities of more than one million inhabitants; - WALTPS covering 19 countries of Western and Central Africa; and - SSA Image Long Term Study (iLTS) of 1983 by SCET Inter. These studies do not always have the same current population number for a given city, and diverge still more for the future prospects. 2.1 List of the 50 Bigest cities. For the establishment of the attached list of the 50 biggest SSA cities, the estimates are based on: * WALTPS, extracts from the 1994 data base, for the 19 countries included in the study zone; the 2010 population has been extrapolated between the 2020 projection and the 1990 data; * UN World Urbanization Prospects, 1992, for most of the cities having more than one million inhabitants in 1990, which were not included in the WALTPS area; and * ILTS, for a number of large cities, outside West Africa, forgotten or underestimated in the 1992 edition of the UN World Urbanization Prospects. 2.2 Cities Distribution per Size. Obviously, it is not possible to forecast a population figure for each of the 10,000 Sub-Saharan urban units which will reach more than 5,000 inhabitants m 2020. If it is relatively easy to identify important centers (e.g., the 600 cities that will number more than 100,000 inhabitants in 2020), it is impossible to identify the thousands of small cities that will emerge and grow during the next 30 years. 41 Annex 2 But the ranking of cities according to their size for each countr or subregion, as well as for the whole region, provides a relatively consistent image, nearly following the law of Pareto (which is: P(n) - A/n), and its evolution, except for the 20 or 30 biggrest cities, follows the overall presentation, using lo arithimic coordinates, of a quasi-homothetic splacement. It iS, of course, a statistical result. Incdeed, the position of a &iven city in the ranking varies with time, as different growth rates vary according to the geographlic locations. A table has been elaborated to show the estimated size distribution of cities and to break down the urban population as deterrnined earlier (see Annex 1) between the different city categories. Table A2. 1: The 50 Biggest Cities of SSA in the Year 2010 (in thousands of inhabitants) City, Country, Source 1960 1990 2010 2020 1. Lagos, Nigeria, WALTPS 411 4,437 9,500 13,700 2. Kinshasa, Zaire, UN 451 3,455 7,928 11,000 3. Abidjan, C. d'Ivoire, WALTPS 202 1,921 5,100 7,500 4. Maputo, Mozambique, UN 181 1,561 4,964 8,000 5. Johannesburg, S. Africa, ILTS 1,147 2,700 4,800 6,000 6. Khartoum, Sudan, UN 347 1,953 4,791 7,000 7. Luanda, Angola, UN 219 1,642 4,527 7,000 8. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, UN 519 1,808 4,458 7,200 9. Nairobi, Kenya, UN 219 1,518 4,446 7,500 10. Cape Town, S. Africa, UN 803 2,297 4,058 5,200 11. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, UN 162 1,436 3,460 5,500 12. Tananarive, Madagascar, ILTS 300 1,330 3,200 4,700 13. Dakar, Senegal, WALTPS 507 1,561 2,900 3,660 14. Kano, Nigeria, WALTPS 147 1,265 2,700 3,700 15. Douala, Cameroon, WALTPS 131 953 2,600 3,950 16. Accra, Ghana, WALTPS 343 1,038 2,500 3,840 17. Conakry, Guinea, WALTPS 1ll 940 2,500 3,737 18. Ibadan, Nigeria, WALTPS 514 1,155 2,400 3,427 19. Harare, Zimbabwe, UN 150 855 2,400 3,600 20. Lusaka, Zambia, UN 160 979 2,300 3,400 21. Yaounde, Cameroon, WALTPS 67 843 2,250 3,313 22. Lobito-Benguela, Angola, WB 100 715 2,200 3,500 23. Lubumbashi, Zaire, ILTS 250 823 2,200 3,200 24. Cotonou, Benin, WALTPS 70 810 2,100 3,090 25. Kampala, Uganda, UN 175 754 2,100 3,650 26. East Rand, South Africa, ILTS 682 1,112 2,000 2,600 27. Mogadishu, Somalia, UN 240 779 2,000 3,200 28. Durban, South Africa, ILTS 650 1,051 1,900 2,500 29. Blantyre-Zomba, Malawi, ILTS 120 783 1,900 3,000 30. Mombasa, Kenya, ILTS 110 658 1,900 3,100 31. Pretoria, South Africa, ILT'S 300 980 1,800 2,400 32. Asmara, Eritrea, ILTs 150 681 1,750 2,700 33. Bamako, Mali, WALTPS 102 736 1,600 2,152 34. Lome, Togo, WALTPS 107 610 1,600 2,442 35. Kisangani, Zaire, ILTS 130 650 1,450 1,900 36. Brazzaville, Congo, ILTS 190 619 1,350 2,000 42 Annex 2 City, Country, Source 1960 1990 2010 2020 37. Kaduna, Nigeria, WALTPS 46 611 1,350 1,800 38. Port Sudan, Sudan, ILTS 100 550 1,350 2,000 39. Port Elizabeth, S. Africa, ILTS 290 750 1,350 1,700 40. Ndjam6na, Chad, WALTPS 60 575 1,300 1,827 41. Freetown, Sierra L., WALTPS 135 580 1,270 1,709 42. Maiduguri, Nigeria, WALTPS 90 551 1,200 1,586 43. Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, ILTS 120 630 1,170 1,700 44. Niamey, Niger, WALTPS 31 442 1,130 1,563 45. Ouagadougou, B. F., WALTPS 135 501 1,100 1,490 46. Nouakchott, Maurit., WALTPS 37 451 1,000 1,319 47. Aba, Nigeria, WALTPS 65 439 950 1,318 48. Djibouti, Djibouti, UN 60 355 950 1,500 49. Monrovia, Liberia, WALTPS 79 455 920 1,231 50. Bangui, C. Afr. Rep., WALTPS 110 464 900 1,198 Table A2.2: Cities Distribution According to Their Size (in numbers and thousands of inhabitants) Year 1960 1990 2020 Size Number Population Number Population Number Population Above 10,000,000 0 0 0 0 2 24,700 5,000,000-10,000,000 0 0 0 0 9 60,900 2,000,000-5,000,000 0 0 4 12,789 25 78,860 1,000,000-2,000,000 1 1,147 14 20,351 34 52,000 Subtotal 1 1,147 18 33,140 70 216,460 500,000-1,000,000 6 3,675 26 18,900 75 53,700 200,000-500,000 12 3,572 70 22,200 210 70,300 100,000-200,000 27 3,645 110 15,700 375 55,800 Subtotal 45 10,892 206 56,800 660 179,800 50,000-100,000 85 6,205 210 15,100 600 67,500 20,000-50,000 200 6,800 580 19,400 1,600 55,700 10,000-20,000 290 4,350 870 12,900 2,400 35,600 5,000-10,000 460 3,406 1,600 11,900 4,300 32,640 Subtotal 1,035 21,761 3,260 59,300 8,900 191,440 Total urban popul. 1,081 32,800 3,484 149,240 9,360 587,700 43 Annex 2 Table A2.3: Urban Population Distribution According to City Sizes (in percents) Year 1960 1990 2020 Size Number Population Number Population Number Population Above 10,000,000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 4.20 5,000,000-10,000,000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 10.36 2,000,000-5,000,000 0.00 0.00 0.11 8.57 0.26 13.42 1,000,000-2,000,000 0.09 3.50 0.40 13.64 0.35 8.85 Subtotal 0.09 3.50 0.52 22.21 0.73 36.83 500,000-1,000,000 0.56 11.20 0.75 12.66 0.78 9.14 200,000-500,000 1.11 10.89 2.01 14.88 2.18 11.96 100,000-200,000 2.50 11.11 3.16 10.52 3.89 9.49 Subtotal 4.16 33.21 5.91 38.06 6.85 30.59 50,000-100,000 7.86 18.92 6.03 10.12 6.23 11.49 20,000-50,000 18.50 20.73 16.65 13.00 16.61 9.48 10,000-20,000 26.83 13.26 24.97 8.64 24.92 6.06 5,000-10,000 42.55 10.38 45.92 7.97 44.65 5.65 Subtotal 95.74 63.30 93.57 39.73 92.42 32.57 Total urban popul. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 44