Document of The World Bank Group FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 126702-NG INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY SECOND PERFORMANCE AND LEARNING REVIEW OF THE COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY FOR THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA FOR THE PERIOD FY14-FY17 May 31, 2018 Nigeria Country Management Unit, AFCW2 International Finance Corporation Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank Group authorization. The date of the last Country Partnership Strategy was April 24, 2014 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Exchange Rate Effective as of April 30, 2018 SDR1 = US$1.43806 US$1 = Naira 305 GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AF Additional Financing ASA Advisory Services and Analytics CBN Central Bank of Nigeria CPF Country Partnership Framework CPS Country Partnership Strategy DFID Department for International Development DISCO Distribution Companies ERGP Economic Recovery and Growth Plan EU European Union FY Fiscal Year GDP Gross Domestic Product IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IDA International Development Association IFC International Finance Corporation IPPs Independent Power Producers ID4D Identification to Development INGO International Non-Governmental Organization MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MPA Multi-phased Approach MVA Mega-volt Ampere MW Megawatt PFM Public Finance Management PLR Performance Learning Review PforR Program-for-Result PPP Public Private Partnerships PSRP Power Sector Recovery Program PSW Private Sector Window PV Photovoltaic SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SDR Special Drawing Rights SUF Scale-up Facility RI Regional Integration UN United Nations WASH Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene WBG World Bank Group World Bank IFC MIGA Vice President: Makhtar Diop Sergio Pimenta Keiko Honda Country Director: Rachid Benmessaoud Oumar Seydi Merli Baroudi Task Team Leader: Indira Konjhodzic Eme Essien Moritz Nebe, Gero Verheyen THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA PERFORMANCE AND LEARNING REVIEW TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 II. Main Changes in Country Context ................................................................................. 1 III. Adjustments to the Country Partnership Strategy ............................................. 3 A. CPS Program Adjustments ............................................................................... 4 B. Modification of the Results Framework ........................................................... 8 IV. Risks to CPS Program ....................................................................................... 9 V. Annexes ........................................................................................................................ 11 Annex 1. Updated CPS Results Matrix (basis for Completion and Learning Review self- evaluation)......................................................................................................................... 11 Annex 2. Matrix of changes to the CPS Results Matrix .............................................. 22 Annex 3. Matrix Summarizing Progress towards CPS Objectives ............................. 30 List of Tables: Table 1. Proposed FY18-FY19 Lending (US$ million) .................................................................... 7 Table 2. Proposed Non-Lending Support – ASAs ............................................................................. 8 Table 3. Summary of Risks to WBG Program .................................................................................. 9 I. INTRODUCTION 1. The World Bank Group’s (WBG) Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for the Federal Republic of Nigeria for the period of fiscal year FY14-FY17 seeks to: (a) promote diversified growth and job creation by reforming the power sector, enhancing agricultural productivity, and increasing access to finance; (b) improve the quality and efficiency of social service delivery at the state level to promote social inclusion; and (c) strengthen governance and public sector management, with gender equity and conflict sensitivity as essential elements of governance. 2. The Performance and Learning Review (PLR) for the CPS was discussed by the Board on September 22, 2016. The PLR expanded the program to include a new cluster – Restoring Macroeconomic Resilience Cluster, and support in some prioritized areas such as North-East recovery; diversifying the economy; enhancing climate resilience; and safeguarding social expenditures and improving their efficiency and quality at a time of fiscal crunch. 3. This streamlined PLR proposes to extend the CPS through FY19. This PLR update extends the CPS period and presents the program agreed with the Government for the next two fiscal years with no adjustments to focus areas. It benefits from the scale-up in IDA18 financing for Nigeria, the IDA18 policy commitments, and the cascade decision-making approach to enhance the design of the program going forward. The extension of the CPS would allow to align the new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) with the electoral cycle (next elections will take place in February 2019). 4. The strategic thrust of the CPS over the FY18-FY19 period will not change. The continuing support to structural reforms, combined with the focus on revenue diversification and mobilization, attracting private financing, and improving social services delivery, amplifies the line of sight to addressing some key medium to long-term development challenges. 5. A Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) will be delivered in FY19 to provide a knowledge platform for addressing Nigeria’s development challenges and opportunities. The SCD will serve as the basis for the CPF, covering FY20-FY25. II. MAIN CHANGES IN COUNTRY CONTEXT 6. Security. Unrests in many parts of the country jeopardize development progress. While the number of Boko Haram attacks in the North-East have dropped during 2017, the number of fatalities against soft targets has spiked. In the south-east, the campaign to re-establish the Republic of Biafra has intensified. The violence in the Niger Delta slashed Nigeria's crude output by as much as a third in 2016. While it has subsided in recent months, the underlying causes of the conflict remain. 7. North-East. The crisis in the North-East has led to food insecurity and polio resurgence. Some 5.2 million people are food insecure. The key drivers of food insecurity include displacement of farmers from conflict affected areas, shortage-induced high prices of food, and inadequate and limited access of humanitarian actors to food insecure communities. 8. Escalating conflict in the Middle-Belt region. There has been an escalation in the conflict between nomadic cattle herders and farmers since December 2017. Increasing desertification drives the cattle herders gradually southward, intensifying pressure on already scarce resources. While clashes have been reported in almost all states that comprise the traditional Middle-Belt region, a disproportionate portion of the violence in this new wave of attacks has centered on three states, Adamawa, Benue and Taraba. 1 9. Niger Delta. Over the last two years there were spikes of attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in the Niger Delta, with negative impacts on oil production levels, associated public revenues, and US$ liquidity in the economy. While those have subsided recently, violence and sabotage in the region have the potential to increase again, and the likelihood of such a scenario could increase in case of an acrimonious transfer of the Presidency. 10. Poverty. Nigeria accounts for one third of Sub-Saharan Africa’s poor population. The conflicts and the recent recession are likely to have had a substantial impact on poverty. Our simulations show that poverty has increased by about 2 percentage points in 2016, and is estimated to have risen in 2017. The percent of people living below the US$1.9 purchasing power parity poverty line increased from 46.8 to about 48.4 in 2016 according to the projections based on the 2010 Nigerian Living Standards Survey. Insecurity and displacement in the North-East disrupted farming and production, basic services and infrastructure, depleted households’ food stocks, and reduced purchasing power. The conflict between the herdsmen and farmers in the North-Central poses similar threats. 11. Economic Developments. The Nigerian economy has emerged from recession. Dual oil price and production shocks in 2015-2016 had spilled-over to the non-oil sectors. A pronounced fiscal retrenchment and acute foreign exchange shortages contributed to reduced domestic economic activity. Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) returned to growth at a rate of 0.8 percent in 2017. However, the recovery is driven by agriculture and higher oil revenue, while non-oil industry and services continued to contract. While productivity and incomes in agriculture are very low, continued contraction in non-oil industry and services resulted in an increase in unemployment to 18.8 percent in the third quarter of 2017. Annual inflation decreased to 15.4 percent at the end of 2017, despite significant monetary tightening. Food inflation remains at around 20 percent, its highest level in eight years. 12. On the back of recovering dollar inflows from oil and gas exports, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) returned to convertibility with a new “Investors and Exporters” foreign exchange window in April 2017. During 2015-2016, the CBN resisted exchange rate depreciation and rationed access to foreign exchange with a multitude of windows targeted at different market segments. Imports declined by a cumulative 42 percent in 2015-2016. The CBN returned to convertibility with a new “Investors and Exporters” foreign exchange window in April 2017. The parallel market rate aligned with the new window at N360/US$, which the CBN maintained stable since then. Multiple exchange rate practices continue with an official exchange rate (for the import of petroleum products and payments of external debt service only) at N305/US$, and other rates for interbank transactions and invisibles. With higher foreign exchange liquidity and the possibility to convert Naira into US$, imports recovered, and foreign portfolio investment inflows resumed. The government also raised US$4.8 billion from Eurobonds and diaspora bonds. As a result, external reserves reached US$39 billion by the end of 2017 (equivalent to nine months of 2017 import coverage) from the low of US$24 billion in October 2016. 13. Economic growth is expected to recover slowly from the recession. Growth is estimated at about 1 percent in 2017, and strengthening to 2.5-2.8 percent by 2019. The recovery will be driven by continued strong performance in agriculture and increasing oil production and price. Non-oil industry and services are expected to grow at a much slower pace due to subdued consumer demand, which means sluggish job creation and a gradual upward trend in poverty. 14. In March 2017, the Federal Government laid out its strategy for economic recovery, including of the power sector which is in crisis. The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) covers the period 2017 - 2020 and lays out the strategy for economic recovery in the short-term and 2 the structural reforms to diversify the economy and set it on a path of sustained inclusive growth over the medium to long-term. Implementation of structural reforms outlined in the ERGP would allow growth to strengthen in the medium term. The development of comprehensive sector strategies remains to be finalized, and the Federal Government has already revised its growth projections downwards. 15. In parallel with the ERGP, the Power Sector Recovery Program (PSRP) was also approved in March 2017. The PSRP seeks to restore the financial viability of the sector while improving transparency and service delivery. An early success of the ERGP is Nigeria’s improved ranking of 145th in the latest ‘Doing Business’ report, up 24 places. For the first time the country is recognized as one of the top 10 most improved economies in the world. 16. Yet, risks remain, and resolute efforts are needed to put the economy on a sustained and stronger growth path. Growth depends on the absence of shocks to agriculture and the oil sector. Although the Niger Delta security situation has improved, oil production remains vulnerable to disruptions. The prospects for structural reforms critically depend on buy-in from subnational governments. 17. Increased revenues are critical for restoring fiscal balances and improving development outcomes. With reduced oil and stagnating non-oil revenues, fiscal balances worsened. Although public debt is low by international standards at about 20 percent of GDP, low revenues have resulted in a very high and increasing federal government interest payments to revenue ratio, rising from 61 percent in 2016 to over 70 percent in 2017. The measures announced in the 2017 budget to broaden the tax base and collect overdue taxes showed little results so far, yet the 2018 budget has even more ambitious oil and non-oil revenue targets. Higher non-oil revenue mobilization requires strong tax policy reforms. States would need to play a much stronger role in revenue mobilization efforts as well as accelerate their implementation of the Fiscal Sustainability Plan. The reforms agreed in the Fiscal Sustainability Plan address many of the key fiscal management challenges at the state level. III. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY 18. The PLR proposes to structure the WBG support in increasingly programmatic fashion, looking beyond IDA18 cycle. This will help (1) respond to the demand for WB support which exceeds the available IDA resources and faces constrained IBRD availability; (2) amplify the line of sight to address medium and long-term development challenges; and (3) strengthen the potential for crowding in other sources of capital to support development objectives. 19. The indicative IDA envelope available for the FY18-FY19 period is about US$3.2 1 billion. In addition, Nigeria is eligible for financing from IDA’s Regional Program , Crisis Response Window, the IDA18 Scale-up Facility (SUF) and the IFC-MIGA Private Sector Window (PSW). PSW support is available to the following conflict affected zones in Nigeria: North-East (Adamawa, Borno, Bauchi, Gombe, Taraba, Yobe), Niger Delta (Abia, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Imo, Ondo, Rivers) and Kano/Kaduna axis (Kaduna and Kano). 20. The actual IBRD envelope is subject to the IBRD availability. Nigeria has IBRD financing needs of US$3 billion but the amount that will be available from IBRD will need to be 1 Actual PBA allocations will be determined annually and will depend on: (i) total IDA resources available; (ii) the number of IDA-eligible countries; (iii) Nigeria’s performance rating, per capita GNI, and population; and (iv) the performance and other allocation parameters for other IDA borrowers. 3 determined in the context of demand from all IBRD countries. Accordingly, the exact mix of IDA and IBRD, volume, and scope of support will be calibrated per the available IBRD and in consultations with the authorities. A. CPS Program Adjustments 21. The CPS during FY18-FY19 responds to the changed economic environment, while building on the gains made so far. The CPS has 42 indicators, of which 19 have been achieved, 15 are ongoing, and with little movement on 6 indicators (see annex 3 for more details). The Development Policy Financing support did not materialize due to the risks outlined in the first PLR. The macroeconomic environment hampered progress on several outcomes. During FY18-FY19, the CPS focuses on supporting revenue diversification and mobilization, addressing the binding constraints for attracting private financing, and improving social services delivery for building the human capital needed for inclusive economic growth. 22. The program comprises of mutually reinforcing and complementary interventions, and continues to apply “Maximizing Finance for Development” principle. IDA18 investments in Nigeria aim at de-risking key sectors and regions for scaling up private investments, building national capacity for stewardship, leveraging partnerships, and enhancing the efficient use of public funds for performance-based approaches and pro-poor investments. Firstly, with the view to restore macroeconomic stability, IDA18 will incentivize reforms to mobilize domestic revenues for enhanced public spending in social sectors and improve governance of key institutions. A critical overhaul of the power sector will fix systemic and persistent bottlenecks to economic growth and result in more reliable and affordable service delivery to an estimated 5 million people. Principles for Maximizing Finance for Development will continue to be applied to the energy sector through the WBG Energy Business Plan. Effective coordination between World Bank, IFC and MIGA helps ensure private sector leverage and optimizes the use of scarce public resources. Secondly, IDA18 will use results-oriented financing instruments to ensure sequential and outcome-oriented prioritization. For example, in the health sector, IDA will work closely with the private sector, development partners, and other non-state actors to focus its immediate support for the last mile effort to eradicate polio, and provide longer term programmatic support for reducing child stunting and the burden of disease; both which disproportionately affect poor children and pregnant mothers. Finally, IDA18 will pay special attention to gender and the climate change agenda through direct project financing including the women’ empowerment project and soil erosion project, as well as integrated contextualized interventions and embedded approaches to gender and climate change in projects and programs across the portfolio. Adjustments to Strategic Cluster 1: Federally-led Structural Reforms for Growth and Jobs 23. Diversification. New lending will prioritize improved connectivity of rural areas with agricultural markets, enhancing agricultural productivity and value chains, and de-risking business environment in Ogun state. The proposed program includes the Nigeria Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project; Livestock Productivity and Resilience Project; Nigeria for Women Project; Agricultural Production and Industrialization; and Skills for Youth Project. The Livestock Project helps address the twin challenges of low productivity and low resilience. The Skills Project enables youth and adults to learn and adapt to the innovations and different tasks required in changing markets and economic sectors. The Nigeria For Women Project supports enhanced agricultural productivity of small-scale female farmers, among others. New lending is underpinned 4 by the recent advisory services and analytics (ASA) on spatial development and ongoing dialogue on the rural/urban linkages and economic corridors. New private sector investment from IFC will focus on supporting the country’s diversification agenda. Sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing (e.g. downstream petroleum, building materials), agro-processing and power will be important contributors to the economic diversification plan articulated in the ERGP. The CPS will seek to support Nigeria’s participation in the West Africa Agriculture Transformation Project. 24. Financing for Development. IDA funds will be strategically mobilized to help de-risk the Family Homes Fund to attract private capital to come in in the quantities necessary to make inroads into Nigeria’s housing needs. Together with support and funding from Nigeria Mortgage Refinance Company, which will refinance mortgage loans, the objective is to create a sustainable and scalable housing system on both the demand and supply side. IFC support for the financial sector through advisory projects such as the Nigeria Secured Transactions and Collateral Registry Project as well as long term credit for commercial banks and micro finance institutions encourage greater financial intermediation for SMEs. Increased focus on financial inclusion will feature in new IFC investment an advisory activity in fintech, telecommunications and digital finance services. 25. MIGA is looking for opportunities to support foreign investment using its political risk insurance covers—Currency Inconvertibility and Transfer Restriction, Expropriation, Breach of Contract, and War and Civil Disturbance. In the energy sector, MIGA is working to develop a robust pipeline of projects in close coordination with IDA/IBRD and IFC. MIGA is also looking to support cross-border investment in projects in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, for example. 26. Energy. Support to the power sector will increase under the joint World Bank/IFC/MIGA Energy Business Plan for Nigeria. Reliable power supply is central to achieving the ERGP targets for growth in the non-oil sectors, particularly in manufacturing and services. Firm-level data from the 2014 Nigeria World Bank Enterprise Survey shows that 27 percent of enterprises identified electricity as the main obstacle to doing business, which is more than twice the average of Sub- Saharan Africa. Having reliable electricity supply is consistently associated with higher levels of firm productivity. With approximately 80 million people lacking access to grid electricity, Nigeria has the largest access deficit in Sub-Saharan Africa and the second-largest in the world, after India. The national electrification rate is 55 percent, and the rural electrification rate is only 39 percent. Both grid extension and off-grid solutions will be needed to provide quality services to unserved and underserved households and rural businesses in a timely manner. 27. The Power Sector Recovery Program (PSRP) that was approved by the Federal Executive Council in March 2017 was developed with the support of the WBG, drawing on its deep engagement in the sector. The PSRP aims to restore the financial sustainability of the sector while addressing regulatory and planning issues necessary for a contract based electricity market to properly function. Together with the government commitment to its implementation, it provides a strong basis for scaling up the WBG support to the power sector over the reminder of the CPS period. 28. By applying the principle of “Maximizing Finance for Development”, new support focuses on achieving financial sustainability of the sector to restore investor confidence, and improving reliability of the energy supply and access. The proposed combined IDA (regular, regional and SUF) and IBRD lending includes the Nigeria Power Sector Recovery Operation (PforR), the Electricity Transmission Project, the Nigeria Electrification Project, support to DISCOs, and regional power interconnection with Niger. IFC is considering projects in generation (solar, gas and hydro) as well as distribution. 5 29. Climate Change Action. Support to the climate resilience agenda will retain its multi- sectoral approach (Livestock Productivity and Resilience Project). The proposed additional financing (AF) for the Nigeria Erosion and Watershed Management Project will scale up good practices achieved so far. The engagement is reinforced by the capacity building support to the Government on the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (Nigeria has submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution). Given the importance of Nigeria in the Africa Region portfolio, the Climate Change Group will provide elevated support to advising task teams how they can increase the climate co-benefits of projects. MIGA has been engaging with investors in alternative energy sources, particularly in Photovoltaic (PV) solar projects where MIGA is looking at several IPPs. IFC and WB supported the planning process for the first sovereign green bond, the first in Africa, which was issued in December 2017. Implementation of the Africa Climate Business Plan is proposed through regional programmatic engagement in addressing coastal erosion in West Africa and building climate resilience in the Niger Basin and Lake Chad Basin. 30. Strong efforts will be made to boost the WBG engagement through the PSW. IFC’s lack of investment experience in the North-East means that the pipeline of current investment opportunities is very limited. To fill in the knowledge gaps, IFC will undertake a private sector mapping exercise, engage IFC’s Advisory teams subsequently to support sector analysis for potential early upstream engagement, project preparation, pipeline development and ultimately investment activity. IFC will prioritize energy, agriculture and financial services. Projects in the other sub- national areas will be considered alongside general business development. MIGA will work together with IFC to identify projects appropriate for the MIGA Guarantee Facility (MGF) under the PSW to foster development of the Northern regions. Adjustments to the Strategic Cluster 2: Quality, Effectiveness, and Efficiency of Social Services Delivery at State Level for Greater Social Inclusion 31. By investing in poor Nigerians in the early years and beyond to acquire human capital needed for economic growth the FY18-FY19 program will support youth to be healthy, employable, productive, and harness the power of women. Nigeria’s poor human development outcomes leading to lost productivity and increased poverty need concerted action. The health and education outcomes of Nigerian children are grim and may be getting worse. Nigeria loses about 900,000 children and women of childbearing age. This makes the country the second largest contributor to under–five and maternal mortality in the world. The stunting rate of poor children in Nigeria has increased by 9 percentage points to 63 percent in the last three years. Access to education is low and severely unequal. Learning outcomes are alarming. In Nigeria, only 19 percent of primary completers can read. The incomplete demographic transition, particularly in the North- West and North-East regions with fertility rates of 6.7 and 6.3, respectively, will only further exasperate the demand for social services and outstrip the capacity of the economy to generate jobs. 32. New support aims to consolidate the gains made in malaria, polio eradication, and skills development and address the worsening situation in child immunization and nutrition. It builds on successful multi-sector pro-poor human development programs that increase access to basic social services to poor and vulnerable groups, while sharpening their results orientation and tailoring project design and resource allocations to state-and community level needs. In collaboration with development partners, IDA will provide programmatic support to accelerate nutrition results, eradicate polio, improve primary health care outcomes for women and children, improve economic empowerment for women, and skills development underpinned by the analytical and advisory work 6 on demographics, health financing, education, Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH)2, and urban poverty and social protection. Support will also be extended for developing a foundational identification platform that can be leveraged to improve service delivery. Adjustments to the Cross Cutting Cluster 3: Governance and Public Sector Management 33. Capacity building and technical assistance will be a key part of the World Bank support during the reminder of the CPS period. Public financial management (PFM) at federal level will be fostered through the proposed Fiscal Governance and Institutions Project. At state level, IDA will partner with the European Union and Department for International Development (DFID) in supporting the PFM agenda in the North East of Nigeria. Specifically, support will be provided to the conflict affected Borno State, through the European Union (EU) and DFID funded Trust Fund, to strengthen its fiduciary systems and budget performance, build state-level M&E capacity and for the coordination of recovery activities in Borno. Adjustment to the Strategic Cluster 4: Restoring Macroeconomic Resilience 34. Strengthening fiscal transparency, accountability and sustainability. The proposed States Fiscal Transparency, Accountability and Sustainability Program PforR supports key reforms for improving fiscal transparency, revenue mobilization, efficiency of public expenditure management, and debt management at state level. At the federal level, the proposed Power Sector PforR promotes a credible and fiscally transparent plan for financing the tariff shortfall of the sector and for settling the historical tariff shortfall reform. Analytical underpinning is reinforced through the work on subnational fiscal management and the ongoing programmatic public expenditure work. Macro monitoring, analytical work and advocacy for a better macroeconomic policy framework will be stepped up. 35. The indicative lending is presented in the Table 1 below. Table 1. Indicative FY18-FY19 Lending (US$ million) FY18 FY19 IDA IDA IBRD* IDA IDA IBRD* SUF SUF Cluster 1: Federally-led Structural Reforms Agenda for Growth and Jobs Energy Sector Support (P4R, transmission, distribution, 472 364 810 200 rural electrification, RI engagement) Diversification Support (agriculture/connectivity/economic 100 545 corridors/women empowerment/RI engagement) Financing for Development 250 Climate Change Action support (soil erosion) 300 100 Skills Operation 100 Cluster 2: Quality, Effectiveness and Efficiency of Social Services Delivery at State Level for Increased Social Inclusion 2 Nigeria is facing mounting water security challenges across the water resources management, irrigation, and water supply and sanitation subsectors. The World Bank Nigeria WASH Poverty Diagnostic (2017) was a wake-up call about the dire situation in the sector. The federal government has subsequently prepared an Action Plan, with support from IDA, to establish the institutional and funding mechanisms for sustainable WASH services and engage the urban and rural WASH sectors in an accelerated development path towards the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). 7 FY18 FY19 IDA IDA IBRD* IDA IDA IBRD* SUF SUF Health Sector Support 375 150 Education Sector Support (RI engagement) 25 ID4D project 115 Clusters 3: Governance and Public Sector Management Federal Fiscal Governance and Institutions Project 125 Cluster 4: Restoring Macroeconomic Resilience States Fiscal Transparency, Accountability and 750 Sustainability Program Total 2,122 464 1,745 450 * IBRD amounts will be determined in the context of demand from all IBRD countries. Table 2. Ongoing Non-Lending Support FY18-FY19 – ASAs Activities Cluster Activities Cluster Digital Jobs in Nigeria, P159231, FY19) 1 Programmatic Health Financing Work 2, 3 (P162108, P164586, FY19) Programmatic Approach to Financial Sector 1, 4 Health Sector Impact Evaluation Work 2 Development (P156379, P160136, FY18) (P131471, P128175, FY18) Banking Supervision (P160135, FY20) 1, 4 Resource Tracking in Health in Nigeria 2 (P152141, FY18) Strengthening Nigeria Petroleum Sector 1, 4 Nigeria Khan Academy Accountability 2 (P161486, FY20) Impact Evaluation (P150215, FY20) Nigeria Post RPBA (P162642, FY18) 1, 2, 3 Scaling Up Support for the Demographic 2 Dividend in Africa (P162269, FY19) Nigeria Bi-Annual Economic Update 1, 3, 4 Governance Reforms in Borno State 3 (P164391, FY18) (P163743, FY22) Federal Government Expenditure Review 4, 3 Programmatic Poverty Work (P160999, 2, 3 (P161752, FY19) FY19) Sub-national Fiscal Management Support 4, 3 Fostering Sustainable Water Supply and 2 (P167051, FY20) Sanitation (WSS) Services in Nigeria (P158458, FY18) Review of Rural Water Supply and Sanitation 2 Programmatic Education Work (FY19) 2 Sector in Nigeria (P165662, FY19) Urban Social Safety Net in Nigeria – 2 Exploratory Framework Development (P165426, FY19) B. Modification of the Results Framework 36. The PLR introduces selected modifications to the results framework to reflect the extension of the CPS. It proposes to (a) revise end targets for selected CPS outcome indicators upward to reflect the extension; (b) replace CPS outcome for “Increase in % of poor b eneficiaries (lowest quantiles) from targeted poor households receiving cash transfers ” to “increased access of poor and vulnerable households to targeted cash transfers ”; (c) drop the outcomes related to increase in non-oil revenues and reduction in current expenditures. Details on the proposed changes are 8 presented in Annex 2. As the proposed new lending in FY18 and FY19 will generate results after this CPS period, it is not reflected in the CPS Results Matrix. IV. RISKS TO CPS PROGRAM 37. The risks identified in the first PLR remain to be valid for the balance of the CPS period but with heightened following risks: political risks, and delays in making projects effective. 38. The window of opportunity before the 2019 elections is rapidly closing . Maneuvering ahead of the 2019 elections will gather pace, with the risk of distracting policymakers and slowing down necessary reforms and the CPS implementation. 39. Continuing weaknesses in the macroeconomic policy framework and the delay in implementation of structural reforms present risks to achieving the intended outcomes in the extended CPS. These reduce Nigeria’s ability to attract private financing for development, and the government’s ability to provide public infrastructure, services and social pr otection. With moderate economic growth in labor intensive sectors, progress on poverty reduction and shared prosperity is unlikely. 40. Delays in effectiveness of projects approved in FY17 will be a challenge to the effective implementation of the CPS program. The World Bank is continuously following up with the Federal Ministry of Finance on expediting project effectiveness and how best to mitigate this risk. 41. The measures to mitigate security risks are enhanced through (1) extensive capacity building of the government counterparts at all levels though project support and Trust Funds; (2) increased reliance on geo-enabling, third party implementation, and stronger coordination with the authorities, UN Agencies, and INGOs on the ground; and (3) putting in place a multisector Stability and Peace Fund-financed team to assist teams in overcoming the logistical, security, and mobility challenges of working in insecure areas. 42. Gaps in capacity, especially at the sub-national level, and institutional weaknesses continue to pose challenges to the successful implementation of the CPS program. The increasingly transformative nature of the program pushes the boundaries of public sector expertise and brings to light systemic issues that pose challenges to successful implementation, such as lack of coherent approach to monitoring and evaluation, contract and project management, and effective use of resources. Continuing attention will be needed to support implementation of institutional reforms, adequate staffing, regulatory strengthening, and practices and systems for better project management. Likewise, the Bank remains vigilant as regards corruption risks to the implementation of its portfolio. Table 3. Summary of Risks to WBG Program Risk categories Ratings 1. Political and governance H 2. Macroeconomic H 3. Sector strategies and policies H 4. Technical design of project or program M 5. Institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability S 6. Fiduciary S 7. Environment and social S 8. Stakeholders S 9. Other (security/conflict) H Overall High 9 Ratings are high (H), substantial (S), moderate (M), low (L). The risk assessment applies to the remainder of the CPS period and is based on the Systematic Operations Risk-Rating Tool. 10 V. ANNEXES Annex 1. Updated CPS Results Matrix (basis for Completion and Learning Review self-evaluation) Indicator Unit of Baseline Value Revised End WBG Program Measurement Target value Strategic Cluster 1: Federally-led Structural Reform Agendas for Growth and Jobs Engagement Area: Power Sector Reform Outcome 1: Increased power generation and transmission capacity 1.1: 16 percent increase in generation Megawatt 6,000 in 2012 7,100 in 2019 PROJECTS: capacity supported by the WBG Ongoing interventions by 2019. Nigeria Power Sector Guarantee Project (P120207, FY13) IFC Azura Edo IPP (32859, FY15) MIGA Azura Edo IPP (FY15) IFC Seven Energy Project (FY15) ASA: Delivered Unlocking Nigeria’s Gas Potential (P151162, FY15) 1.2: 8 percent increase in transmission Mega Volt 8,588 on 330 kV 12,000 on 330KV PROJECTS: capacity. Amp level in 2013 in 2019 Ongoing Nigeria Electricity and Gas Improvement Project (P106172, FY09) Pipeline Nigeria Transmission Project (P146330) Energy Sector P4R Outcome 2: Improved the efficiency of electricity delivery 2.1: AT and C losses of privatized Percentage 45 in 2014 32 in 2019 PROJECTS: DISCOs supported by the WBG. EBP Ongoing reduced by 8 percentage points from 45% Nigeria Electricity and Gas Improvement in 2013 to 37% in 2019. Project (P106172, FY09) Pipeline Nigeria Transmission Project (P146330) 11 Indicator Unit of Baseline Value Revised End WBG Program Measurement Target value Outcome 3: Improved access to modern lighting for the base-of-the –pyramid through supporting the value chain of procuring and distributing solar products such as lanterns and cook-stoves 3.1: solar lanterns distributed/sold. Million 0 in 2013 0.8 in 2019 PROJECTS: Ongoing IFC-AS – Lighting Nigeria 3.2: People with improved energy services Million 0 in 2013 4.0 in 2019 ASA: (assumes industry estimate of 5 people per Ongoing household). IFC Advisory Services - Lighting Africa Project 3.3: tCO2 being GHG avoided (Key Metric tons 0 in 2013 74,000 ASA: assumptions: (i) kerosene lamp emission CO2/Year Ongoing factor (t/Coe/ltr) =0.0026 (ii) kerosene IFC Advisory Services - Lighting Africa consumption per year for a lantern = 55 Project ltrs (iii) solar lantern to kerosene lamp displacement factor = 70%). Engagement Area: Agriculture Productivity and Climate Change (Resilience) Outcome 4: Improved access of small farmers to inputs and technology, and increase in their average income 4.1: Increased effectiveness of publicly Million 1.2 in 2012 6.8 in 2019 PROJECTS: supported seed and fertilizer distribution Ongoing systems as measured by the increased Fadama 3 (P096572, FY09) number of farmers benefiting from those Closed during the CPS period programs. Agriculture DPO I (P130012, FY14) Commercial Agriculture Development Project (P096648, FY09) West Africa Agriculture Productivity Project (P117148, FY11) 4.2: Additional 8,000 hectares of Hectare 26,000 in 2014 34,000 in 2019 PROJECTS: improved irrigation in North and North- Ongoing West areas. Transforming Irrigation and Water Resources Management in Nigeria Project (P123112, FY14) 4.3: Rural households in supported Naira 184,240 in 2013 280,000 in 2019 PROJECTS: Fadama areas reporting 40% increase in Ongoing average household income. Fadama 3 (P096572, FY09) 12 Indicator Unit of Baseline Value Revised End WBG Program Measurement Target value Outcome 5: Improved horizontal coordination of small farmers 5.1: Number of farmer associations and or Number 0 in 2013 6500 in 2019 PROJECTS: marketing cooperatives established in Ongoing supported areas. Fadama 3 (P096572, FY09) Agro processing, Productivity and Livelihood Support Project (P148616) Closed Commercial Agriculture Development Project (P096648, FY09) ASA: Delivered Inclusive Markets (P147941, FY15) Trade in Agricultural Markets (P132218, FY15) Outcome 6: Improved road transportation connectivity of rural markets 6.1: Additional 2,000 km or rural roads Kilometer 0 in 2013 2,000 PROJECTS: rehabilitated and maintained in supported Ongoing states. Rural Access and Mobility Project 2 (P095003, FY13) Closed during the CPS period Rural Access and Mobility Project 1 (P072644, FY08) Commercial Agriculture Development Project (P096648, FY09) ASA: Delivered Nigeria Urbanization Review (P143476, FY15) 13 Indicator Unit of Baseline Value Revised End WBG Program Measurement Target value 6.2: Additional 2 million people in rural Million 0 in 2013 2.3 in 2019 PROJECTS: areas gained access to an all-season road Closed during the CPS period in supported states. Rural Access and Mobility Project 1 (P072644, FY08) Ongoing Rural Access and Mobility Project 2 (P095003, FY13) Outcome 7: Enhanced country’s preparedness to respond to natural hazards, climate risks and natural disasters (resilience) 7.1: # ha of land treated for erosion. Hectare 0 in 2013 2,800 PROJECTS: Ongoing 7.2: % of upgraded or new Hydro Met Percentage 0 in 2013 80 in 2019 Nigeria Erosion and Watershed stations providing data that are published Management Project (P124905, FY12) annually and uploaded to the web. Engagement Area: Financing for Development Outcome 8: Expanded financing opportunities for SMEs 8.1: Loans Outstanding to SMEs Number 0 in 2013 60,000 PROJECTS: Ongoing IFC – GTB IFC – Diamond Bank IFC – Access Bank IFC – Ecobank IFC – FCMB 8.2: Access to Loans for micros Million 0 in 2013 2 in 2019 PROJECTS: (Additional 2 million micro entrepreneurs Ongoing provided with financial services by IFC) IFC – MicroCred MFB Nigeria IFC – Advans Nigeria IFC – ABMFB Outcome 9: Improved supply of longer term financing 9.1: New wholesale financial institutions Yes/No No in 2014 YES PROJECTS: are established and operational. The Ongoing institutions are the DBN and NRMC. Development Finance Project (P146319) 14 Indicator Unit of Baseline Value Revised End WBG Program Measurement Target value Housing Finance Development Project (P131973) MIGA – China Glass (FY18) ASA: Delivered Boosting Financial Inclusion in Nigeria (P147939) Inclusive Markets (P147941) Investment Climate Assessment (P147940) Ongoing Programmatic Approach to Financial Sector Development (FY16-FY18) Banking Sector Supervision (FY20) Outcome 10: Improved financial infrastructure 10.1: Value of financing facilitated Million 0 in 2013 PROJECTS: Credit Reporting: through WBG-supported financial Ongoing 2,851 in 2019 infrastructure. Credit Reporting Project and Nigeria Collateral Secured Transactions & Collateral Registry: 8,000 Registry Project m in 2019 Strategic Cluster 2: Quality, Effectiveness and Efficiency of Social Service Delivery at State Level for Greater Social Inclusion Engagement Area: Strengthening Community Driven Mechanisms for Social Inclusion, and Effectiveness of Social Protection Programs Outcome 11: Improved targeting of social protection and increased employment readiness of youth in supported states. 11.1: Improved targeting of social Number 0 in 2013 20 in 2019 PROJECTS: protection programs in states as measured Ongoing by the # of states using the unified registry Youth Employment and Social Protection of beneficiaries and common targeting Project (P126964, FY13) mechanism. Community and Social Development (P090644, FY09) National Social Safety Nets Project (P151488, FY16)) ASA: Delivered 15 Indicator Unit of Baseline Value Revised End WBG Program Measurement Target value Sharing Prosperity in Nigeria: An Analytical Work Program on Jobs and Social Protection (P146872, FY15) Improving Governance in Social Sectors (P132571, FY14) Poverty Work Program (P157742, FY15) ASA ongoing: Programmatic Poverty Work (P160999, FY19) Urban Social Safety Net in Nigeria – Exploratory Framework Development (P165426, FY19) 11.2: Enhanced resilience of the youth Number 0 in 2013 100,000 PROJECTS: participating in workfare programs in Youth Employment and Social Protection supported states as measured by the Project (P126964, FY13) number of youths who received Community and Social Development orientation and life skills training. (P090644, FY09) National Social Safety Nets Project (P151488) 11.3: Increased access of poor and Number 0 in 2013 1,500,000 PROJECTS: vulnerable households to targeted cash Ongoing transfers Youth Employment and Social Protection Project (P126964, FY13) Community and Social Development (P090644, FY09) State Expenditure Effectiveness for Results (P121455) National Social Safety Nets Project (P151488) Outcome 12: Increased Access of Poor and Vulnerable to Social and Economic Services 12.1: 50 percent increase in the # of poor Number 900,000 in 2012 2,000,000 in 2019 PROJECTS: households with access to social and Ongoing livelihood support services through Community and Social Development (P090644) 16 Indicator Unit of Baseline Value Revised End WBG Program Measurement Target value community development plans in supported areas. Engagement Area: Coverage and Quality of Health Services Outcome 13: Improved coverage and quality of health service delivery 13.1: The share of child deliveries that are Percentage 33 in 2013 7 in 2019 PROJECTS: assisted by trained health personnel in 3 Ongoing states increases to 43% by 2019. States Health Program Investment Project (P120798, FY12) Nigeria Program to Support One Million Lives (P146583, FY15) ASA: Delivered Nigeria Service Delivery Indicators (P145455, FY15) SURE-P MCH Impact Evaluations (P144096, FY15) Ongoing Health Sector Impact Evaluation Work (P131471, P128175, FY19) Scaling Up Support for the Demographic Dividend in Africa (P162269, FY19) 13.2: The share of children 12-23 months Percentage 25.4 in 2013 50 in 2019 PROJECTS: old who are fully immunized in 3 states Ongoing increases to 45.4% by 2019. States Health Program Investment Project (P120798, FY12) Nigeria Program to Save One Million Lives (P146583, FY15) ASA: Ongoing NG-Quality Assessment/Resource Tracking (P132947) 17 Indicator Unit of Baseline Value Revised End WBG Program Measurement Target value Resource Tracking in Health in Nigeria (P152141) 13.3: % of under-5 children sleeping Percentage 44.6 in 2010 65 in 2019 PROJECTS: under insecticide treated net the night Closed during the CPS period preceding the survey increased from 44.6 Malaria Booster Project (P097921, FY07) % in 2010 to 60%. ASA: Delivered NG-Malaria Control Program (P105846, FY16) 13.4: At least 80 % coverage with oral Percentage December 2012, 98 in 2019 PROJECTS: polio vaccine sustained in every state. 90 coverage (8 Ongoing endemic states Polio Eradication Support (P130865, average) FY13) Pipeline: Polio AF 13.5: 40,000 pregnant women living with number 26,133 in 2010 160,000 PROJECTS: HIV who receive annually a complete cumulative end Closed course of antiretroviral prophylaxis to target for FY14- HIV/AIDS Program Development Project reduce the risk of mother to child FY17 period II (P102119, FY09) transmission 13.6: Additional in - and out patients in Patients 393,268 in 2013 1,685,000 in 2019 PROJECTS: private hospital facilities to complement Ongoing public healthcare delivery Hygeia (Lagoon Hospitals) EagleEye EchoScan Engagement Area: Efficiency, Equitable Access and Quality of Education Services Outcome 14: Improved learning environment and management 14.1: 10,000 additional teachers in rural Number 31,243 in 2013, 44,937 in 2019 PROJECTS: areas. delivered by the Ongoing results based State Education Program Investment financing of Project (P122124, FY13) education services in 3 states 18 Indicator Unit of Baseline Value Revised End WBG Program Measurement Target value 14.2: 50% of supported schools Number 4,000 supported 2,501 in 2019 PROJECTS: demonstrate improvements in learning schools in 2013, Project closed during the CPS period. outcomes. delivered by the Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project results based (P106280, FY09) financing of Ongoing: education BESDA services in 3 State Education Program Investment states Project (P122124, FY13) ASA: Delivered Governance and Financing of Basic Education in Nigeria Skills for Competitiveness and Employability (P148688, FY14) Ongoing Programmatic Education Work (FY19) 14.3: Number of students at IFC- Number 3,850 in 2013 125,000 in 2019 PROJECTS: supported education institutions. Ongoing Bridge Academy (regional project) Outcome 15: Strengthened responsiveness of public and private training institutions to skills demand 15.1: Increased # of states with approved Number 4 in 2013 10 PROJECTS: Strategic Plan for improving quality and Ongoing relevance of TVE (Baseline 4 in 2013; State Education Program Investment Target 15 by 2017). Project (P122124, FY13) Engagement Area: Coverage and Efficiency of Water Supply Services Outcome 16: Improved coverage and efficiency of water supply service in selected states 16.1: # of people with access to improved Million 6.2 in 2013 7.74 in 2019 PROJECTS: water supply increased by 4 million (Old Closed during the CPS period: baseline: 9.2 million in 2013, target: 13.2 National Urban Water Sector Reform million in 2017). Project II (P071391) Ongoing National Urban Water Sector Reform Project III (P123513, FY14) ASA: 19 Indicator Unit of Baseline Value Revised End WBG Program Measurement Target value Delivered State Water Agencies in Nigeria: A Performance Assessment - Economic Aspects of the Urban Water Sect (P150244, FY15) Nigeria WASH Poverty Diagnostics (P158634) Ongoing Review of Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nigeria (P165662, FY19) Fostering Sustainable Water Supply and Sanitation Services in Nigeria (P158458, FY18) 16.2: Cost recovery for operation and Percentage Lagos 25 in Lagos 25 in 2012; PROJECTS: maintenance increased in average by 25 2012; Cross Cross River 55 in Closed during the CPS period percent in supported states by 2017. River 55 in 2012; 2012; Bauchi 50; National Urban Water Sector Reform Ekiti 27.9; Rivers Project II (P071391) 10. Ongoing National Urban Water Sector Reform Project III (P123513, FY14) ASA: Delivered State Water Agencies in Nigeria: A Performance Assessment - Economic Aspects of the Urban Water Sect (P150244, FY15) Nigeria WASH Poverty Diagnostics (P158634) Foundational/Cross Cutting Cluster 3: Governance and Public Sector Management Outcome 17: Enhanced transparency on budget execution in targeted states and at Federal level 17.1: # states and the Federal GoN with an Number 0 in 2012 Federal GoN and Ongoing integrated fully functioning financial 8 supported states Public Sector Governance Reform and information system producing and in 2019 fully Development Project (P097026, FY10) 20 Indicator Unit of Baseline Value Revised End WBG Program Measurement Target value publishing consolidated quarterly financial functioning with State Employment and Expenditure Project statements within 14 days of end of each deliverables (P121455, FY12) fiscal quarter. achieved Closed: 17.2: # of states that have adopted Number 24 in 2013 28 in 2019 Edo State Fiscal Improvement and Service procurement law increased from 24 in Delivery Operation (P151480, FY15) 2013 to 30 in 2017. Lagos State DPO 3 (P151947, FY15) and 17.3: % of public procurement contracts Percentage 30 in 2013 90 in 2019 State and Local Governance Reform above threshold awarded through open Project competition in 12 states increased from 30 % in 2013 to 75% in 2017. Strategic Cluster 4: Restoring Macroeconomic Resilience Outcome 18: Enhanced capacity of states for fiscal risks management - new 18.1 Improved debt management at state Number of 2016-2017: <5 15 in 2019 Lending Pipeline: level states State Fiscal Transparency and submitting Accountability (P162009) complete quarterly debt ASA reports to Ongoing DMO on time Subnational Fiscal Management Support 18.2 Increase in total annual internally 829 in 2016 1,433 in 2019 (P167051, FY20) Total IGR generated revenue (IGR) collection at (average 20 Nigeria Bi-Annual Economic Update collected by state level percent annual (P164391, FY18) all States growth) Federal Government Expenditure Review (Naira, billion) (P161752, FY19) Outcome 19: Enhanced fiscal transparency of the Power Sector Recovery Plan - new Outcome 19.1. The public Power Sector Yes No Lending Pipeline: Recovery Program and the FSP/MTEF Power Sector Recovery Performance 2018-2020 include all uses of funds and Based Operation (P164001) financing sources of the Financing Plan; the public Power Sector Recovery Program in addition includes the fiscal costs of the Financing Plan 21 Annex 2. Matrix of changes to the CPS Results Matrix Original Indicator Unit of Baseline Original End New End Revision Measurement Value Target Value – Target Value FY17 Strategic Cluster 1: Federally-led Structural Reform Agendas for Growth and Jobs Engagement Area: Power Sector Reform Outcome 1: Increased power generation and transmission capacity 1.1: 16 percent increase in Megawatt 6000 in 2012 6960 by 2017- 7,100 Revised to reflect the CPS extension. generation capacity supported by the WBG interventions by 2017. 1.2: 8 percent increase in Mega Volt 8588 on 9275 on 330kV 12,000 on Revised to reflect the CPS extension. transmission capacity. Amp 330kV level in in 2017 330KV 2013 Outcome 2: Improved the efficiency of electricity delivery 2.1: AT and C losses of Percentage 45 in 2014 37 in 2017 32 Revised to reflect the CPS extension. privatized DISCOs supported by the WBG. EBP reduced by 8 percentage points from 25% in 2013 to 17% in 2017. Outcome 3: Improved access to modern lighting for the base-of-the –pyramid through supporting the value chain of procuring and distributing solar products such as lanterns and cook-stoves 3.1: 1 million solar lanterns Million 0 in 2013 0.74 in 2017 0.8 Revised to reflect the CPS extension. distributed/sold. 3.2: People with improved Million 0 in 2013 3.7 in 2017 4.0 Revised to reflect the CPS extension. energy services (assumes industry estimate of 5 people per household). 3.3: CO2 being GHG avoided Metric tons 0 in 2013 74,000 74,000 No changes (Key assumptions: (i) kerosene CO2/Year in 2017 lamp emission factor (t/Coe/ltr) =0.0026 (ii) kerosene consumption per year for a lantern = 55 ltrs (iii) solar 22 Original Indicator Unit of Baseline Original End New End Revision Measurement Value Target Value – Target Value FY17 lantern to kerosene lamp displacement factor = 70%). Engagement Area: Agriculture Productivity and Climate Change (Resilience) Outcome 4: Improved access of small farmers to inputs and technology, and increase in their average income 4.1: Increased effectiveness of Million 1.2 in 2012 5 in 2017 6.8 Revised to reflect the CPS extension. publicly supported seed and fertilizer distribution systems as measured by the increased number of farmers benefiting from those programs. 4.2: Additional 8,000 hectares of Hectare 26,000 in 2014 46,000 in 2017 34,000 Target revised downward from improved irrigation in North and additional 20,000 ha to 8,000 ha; North-West areas. this indicator is off track 4.3: Rural households in Naira 184,240 in 257,937 in 2017 280,000 Revised to reflect the CPS extension. supported Fadama areas 2013 reporting 40% increase in average household income. Outcome 5: Improved horizontal coordination of small farmers 5.1: Number of farmer Number 0 in 2013 6,000 in 2017 6,500 Revised end target to reflect the CPS associations and or marketing extension. cooperatives supported in (projects) intervention areas. Outcome 6: Improved road transportation connectivity of rural markets 6.1: Additional 2,000 km or Kilometer 0 in 2013 2,000 in 2017 2,000 No Change rural roads rehabilitated and maintained in supported states. 6.2: Additional 2 million people Million 0 in 2013 2 in 2017 2.3 Revised end target to reflect the CPS in rural areas gained access to an extension. all-season road in supported states. Outcome 7: Enhanced country’s preparedness to respond to natural hazards, climate risks and natural disasters (resilience) 23 Original Indicator Unit of Baseline Original End New End Revision Measurement Value Target Value – Target Value FY17 7.1: # ha of land treated for Hectare 0 in 2013 2,800 in 2017 2,800 erosion. No Change 7.2: % of upgraded or new Percentage 0 in 2013 60 in 2017 80 Revised end target to reflect the CPS Hydro Met stations providing extension. data that are published annually and uploaded to the web. Engagement Area: Financing For Development Outcome 8: Expanded financing opportunities for SMEs 8.1: Loans outstanding to SMEs Number 0 in 2013 60,000 in 2017 60,000 No change by 2017 by IFC. 8.2: Access to loans for micros Million 0 in 2013 2 in 2017 2 in 2019 No Change (Additional 2 million micro entrepreneurs provided with financial services by IFC) Outcome 9: Improved institutional infrastructure for longer term financing (Changed from “Improved supply of longer term financing”) 9.1: New wholesale financial Yes/No No in 2014 Yes in 2017 YES No change institutions are established and operational. The institutions are the DBN and NRMC. Outcome 10: Improved financial infrastructure 10.1: Value of financing Million 0 in 2013 Credit Credit Revised to reflect CPS revision facilitated through WBG- Reporting: Reporting: supported financial 1,634 2,851 infrastructure. Collateral Collateral Registry: 4,500 Registry: 8,000 10.2 No of SMEs covered in Million 0 in 2013 New indicator IFC 1.0 2.5 credit bureaus 24 Original Indicator Unit of Baseline Original End New End Revision Measurement Value Target Value – Target Value FY17 10.3 Number of SMEs that have Million 0 in 2013 New indicator IFC 11,000 20,000 received loans secured with movable property Strategic Cluster 2: Quality, Effectiveness and Efficiency of Social Service Delivery at State Level for Greater Social Inclusion Engagement Area: Strengthening Community Driven Mechanisms for Social Inclusion, and Effectiveness of Social Protection Programs Outcome 11: Improved targeting of social protection and increased employment readiness of youth in supported states. 11.1: Improved targeting of Number 0 in 2013 10 in 2017 20 Revised end target to reflect the CPS social protection programs in extension. states as measured by the # of states using the unified registry of beneficiaries and common targeting mechanism. 11.2: Enhanced resilience of the Number 0 in 2013 100,000 in 2017 100,000 No Change. youth participating in workfare programs in supported states as measured by the number of youths who received orientation and life skills training. 11.3: Increased in % of poor Percentage 0 in 2013 40 by 2017 1,500,000 Revised: Indicator revised to beneficiaries (lowest quintiles) “Increased access of poor and from targeted poor households vulnerable households to targeted receiving cash transfers. cash transfers”. Unit measurement changed from percentage to number. New end target value is 1,500,000. Outcome 12: Increased Access of Poor and Vulnerable to Social and Economic Services 12.1: 50 percent increase in the # Number 900,000 in 1,350,000 2,000,000 Revised end target to reflect the CPS of poor households with access 2012 extension. to social and livelihood support services through community development plans in supported areas (baseline: 900,000 in 2012). 25 Original Indicator Unit of Baseline Original End New End Revision Measurement Value Target Value – Target Value FY17 Engagement Area: Coverage and Quality of Health Services Outcome 13: Improved coverage and quality of health service delivery 13.1: The share of child Percentage 33 in 2013 43 by 2017 70 Revised end target to reflect the CPS deliveries that are assisted by extension. trained health personnel in 3 states increases to 43 % by 2017. 13.2: The share of children 12- Percentage 25.4 in 2013 45.4 by 2017 50 Revised end target to reflect the CPS 23 months old who are fully extension. immunized in 3 states increases to 45.4% by 2017. 13.3: % of under-5 children Percentage 44.6 in 2010 60 by 2017 65 Revised end target to reflect the CPS sleeping under insecticide extension. treated net the night preceding the survey increased from 44.6 % in 2010 to 60%. 13.4: At least 80 % coverage Percentage December 80 by 2017 98 Revised end target to reflect the CPS with oral polio vaccine sustained 2012, 90 extension. in every state. coverage (8 endemic states average) 13.5: % of pregnant women Percentage 18 in 2013 40 by 2017 160,000 Revised: Project closed in FY17. living with HIV who receive a cumulative end CPS indicator is revised to align it complete course of antiretroviral target for FY14- with what was measured under the prophylaxis to reduce the risk of FY17 period project. The revised indicator is mother to child transmission ’40,000 pregnant women living with increased from 18% to 40%. HIV who receive annually a complete course of antiretroviral prophylaxis to reduce the risk of mother-to-child transmission’. The baseline set in 2010 was 26,133 women. 13.6: Additional in- and out- Patients 393,268 in 2,000,000 by 1,685,000 Revised to reflect new target. patients in private hospital 2013 2017 26 Original Indicator Unit of Baseline Original End New End Revision Measurement Value Target Value – Target Value FY17 facilities to complement public healthcare delivery. Engagement Area: Efficiency, Equitable Access and Quality of Education Services Outcome 14: Improved learning environment and management 14.1: 10,000 additional teachers Number 31,243 in 41,243 44,937 Revised end target to reflect the CPS in rural areas. 2013, extension. 14.2: 50% of supported schools Number 4,000 2000 schools 2,501 Revised to reflect new target. demonstrate improvements in supported improved learning outcomes. schools in 2013, delivered by the results based financing of education services in 3 states 14.3: Number of students at IFC- Number 3,850 in 2013 5,000 by 2017 125,000 Revised end target to reflect the CPS supported education institutions. extension. Project was not included in original CPF. Outcome 15: Strengthened responsiveness of public and private training institutions to skills demand 15.1: Increased # of states with Number 4 in 2013 10 by 2017 10 No Change approved Strategic Plan for improving quality and relevance of TVE (Baseline 4 in 2013; Target 15 by 2017). Engagement Area: Coverage and Efficiency of Water Supply Services Outcome 16: Improved coverage and efficiency of water supply service in selected states 27 Original Indicator Unit of Baseline Original End New End Revision Measurement Value Target Value – Target Value FY17 16.1: # of people with access to Million 6.2 in 2013 7.5 in 2017 7.74 Revised end target to reflect the CPS improved water supply increased extension. by 4 million (baseline: 9.2 million in 2013, target: 13.2 million in 2017). 16.2: Cost recovery for Percentage Lagos 25 in 25 increase on Lagos 25 in Revised end target to reflect the CPS operation and maintenance 2012; Cross average 2012; Cross extension. increased in average by 25 River 50 in River 50 in 201; percent in supported states by 201; Bauchi 50; Ekiti 2017. 27.9; Rivers – 10 Foundational/Cross Cutting Cluster 3: Governance and Public Sector Management Outcome 17: Enhanced transparency on budget execution in targeted states and at Federal level 17.1: # states and the Federal Number 0 in 2012 Federal GoN Federal GoN and No Change GoN with an integrated fully and 8 supported 8 states in 2019 functioning financial states in 2017 fully functioning information system producing with deliverables and publishing consolidated achieved quarterly financial statements within 14 days of end of each fiscal quarter. 17.2: # of states that have Number 24 in 2013 27 in 2017 28 Revised end target to reflect the CPS adopted procurement law extension. increased from 24 in 2013 to 30 in 2017. 17.3: % of public procurement Percentage 30 in 2013 75 in 2017 90 Revised end target to reflect the CPS contracts above threshold extension. awarded through open competition in 12 states increased from 30 % in 2013 to 75% in 2017. Strategic Cluster 4: Restoring Macroeconomic Resilience – new cluster Outcome 18: Increased share of non-oil revenues in total revenues of the federal government - dropped 28 Original Indicator Unit of Baseline Original End New End Revision Measurement Value Target Value – Target Value FY17 18.1: Non-oil revenue growth. Percentage 2 between 8 between 2015 Dropped: Federal level DPF did not 2014 and 2015 and 2017 materialize Outcome 20: Reduction in growth of high pressure recurrent expenditures - dropped 18.2: Real wage bill growth of Percentage 3.4 between 0.5 between Dropped: Federal level DPF did not the government at federal and 2014 and 2015 2015 and 2017 materialize state levels. Outcome 18: Enhanced capacity of states for fiscal risks management – new indicator 18.1 Improved debt management Number of 2016-2017: <5 15 in 2019 Lending Pipeline: at state level states State Fiscal Transparency and submitting Accountability (P162009) complete quarterly debt reports to DMO on time 18.2 Increase in total annual 829 in 2016 1,433 in 2019 Total IGR internally generated revenue (Average 20 collected by (IGR) collection at state level percent annual all States growth) (Naira, billion) Outcome 19: Enhanced fiscal transparency of the Power Sector Recovery Plan – new indicator Outcome 19.1. The public Power Yes No Lending Pipeline: Sector Recovery Program and Power Sector Recovery Performance the FSP/MTEF 2018-2020 Based Operation (P164001, FY19) include all uses of funds and financing sources of the Financing Plan; the public Power Sector Recovery Program in addition includes the fiscal costs of the Financing Plan 29 Annex 3. Matrix Summarizing Progress towards CPS Objectives Indicator Unit of Baseline Original WBG Program Measurement Value FY17 End Status Target Value Strategic Cluster 1: Federally-led Structural Reform Agendas for Growth and Jobs Engagement Area: Power Sector Reform Outcome 1: Increased power generation and transmission capacity 1.1: 16 percent Megawatt 6000 in 2012 6960 by PROJECTS: Achieved: 7086.6MW generated, increase in 2017 Ongoing translating to 16% increase in generation capacity Nigeria Power Sector generation capacity supported by the supported by the Guarantee Project (P120207, WBG interventions. WBG interventions FY13) by 2017. IFC Azura Edo IPP (32859, FY15) MIGA Azura Edo IPP (, FY15) IFC Seven Energy Project (FY15) ASA: Delivered Unlocking Nigeria’s Gas Potential (P151162, FY15) 1.2: 8 percent Mega Volt Amp 8588 on 9275 on PROJECTS: Achieved: 12,102MVA transmitted, increase in 330kV level 330kV Ongoing on 330kV level, translating to 8% transmission in 2013 level in Nigeria Electricity and Gas increase in transmission capacity. capacity. 2017 Improvement Project (P106172, FY09) Pipeline Nigeria Transmission Project (P146330) Outcome 2: Improved the efficiency of electricity delivery 2.1: AT and C Percentage 45 in 2014 37 in 2017 PROJECTS: On Track: Data shows no further losses of privatized Ongoing improvement in ATC&C losses from DISCOs supported 32%. by the WBG. EBP 30 Indicator Unit of Baseline Original WBG Program Measurement Value FY17 End Status Target Value reduced by 8 Nigeria Electricity and Gas percentage points Improvement Project from 45% in 2013 (P106172, FY09) to 37% in 2017. Pipeline Nigeria Transmission Project (P146330) Outcome 3: Improved access to modern lighting for the base-of-the –pyramid through supporting the value chain of procuring and distributing solar products such as lanterns and cook-stoves 3.1: solar lanterns Million 0 in 2013 0.74 in PROJECTS: On track: The number of quality distributed/sold. 2017 Ongoing assured solar lanterns sold as at June IFC-AS – Lighting Nigeria 2017 was about 430,000 translating to about 45% of the target value. 3.2: People with Million 0 in 2013 3.7 in 2017 ASA: On track: As of June 2017, 2.32 improved energy Ongoing million people have access to modern services (assumes IFC Advisory Services - off grid lighting. industry estimate of Lighting Africa Project 5 people per household). 3.3: CO2 being Metric tons 0 in 2013 74,000 in ASA: On track: 46,531Metric tons of GHG GHG avoided (Key CO2/Year 2017 Ongoing had been avoided as at June 2017 assumptions: (i) IFC Advisory Services - which represents about 63% of the end kerosene lamp Lighting Africa Project target. Additional achievement of emission factor 27,433MT GHG within a space of 1 (t/Coe/ltr) =0.0026 year confirms that the project is now (ii) kerosene on track and can meet the target if consumption per momentum of implementation is year for a lantern = sustained. 55 ltrs (iii) solar lantern to kerosene lamp displacement factor = 70%). 31 Indicator Unit of Baseline Original WBG Program Measurement Value FY17 End Status Target Value Engagement Area: Agriculture Productivity and Climate Change (Resilience) Outcome 4: Improved access of small farmers to inputs and technology, and increase in their average income 4.1: Increased Million 1.2 in 2012 5 in 2017 PROJECTS: Achieved: This indicator was effectiveness of Closed during the CPS period supported by the Nigeria Agriculture publicly supported Agriculture DPO I (P130012, Sector DPO that was closed in seed and fertilizer FY14) December 2014. The increased distribution systems Ongoing number of famer beneficiaries was as measured by the Fadama 3 (P096572, FY09) 5.65 million according to the project increased number of Commercial Agriculture ICR (Implementation Completion farmers benefiting Development Project Report). For the remaining CPS from those (P096648, FY09) period, this indicator is continuingly programs. West Africa Agriculture supported by FADAMA III, under Productivity Project (P117148, which 1.1 million farmers have access FY11) to seed and fertilizer. Pipeline Agriculture DPO II (P147398) – dropped to be folded into the new Federal DPF (P155951) 4.2: Additional Hectare 26,000 ha in 46,000 ha PROJECTS: Off track: Work at the first site 20,000 hectares of 2014 in 2017 Ongoing commenced in July, 2017. By July improved irrigation Transforming Irrigation and 2018 irrigation infrastructure for the in North and North- Water Resources Management first 2800 ha of land will be completed West areas. in Nigeria Project (P123112, and handed over to farmers for FY14) operations and maintenance. 4.3: Rural Naira 184,240 in 257,937 in PROJECTS: Achieved: Households benefitting households in 2013 2016 Ongoing from the Fadama Project have an supported Fadama Fadama 3 (P096572, FY09) average real income of N547,979. areas reporting 40% According to the Household income increase in average study result of July, 2017, ninety-one household income. (91) percent of the rural households’ beneficiaries in Fadama areas reported 32 Indicator Unit of Baseline Original WBG Program Measurement Value FY17 End Status Target Value that their real income increased by 40 percent in July 2017. Outcome 5: Improved horizontal coordination of small farmers 5.1: Number of Number 0 in 2013 6000 in PROJECTS: On Track: 2,778 (46 percent of the farmer 2017 Closed: Commercial target). associations Agriculture Development and or Project (P096648, FY09) marketing Ongoing cooperatives Fadama 3 (P096572, FY09) established in Nigeria Agro-Processing supported Support Project (P148616, areas. FY16) ASA: Delivered Inclusive Markets (P147941, FY15) Trade in Agricultural Markets (P132218, FY15) Outcome 6: Improved road transportation connectivity of rural markets 33 Indicator Unit of Baseline Original WBG Program Measurement Value FY17 End Status Target Value 6.1: Additional Kilometer 0 in 2013 2,000 in PROJECTS: On track: A total of 920km consisting 2,000 km or rural 2017 Closed during the CPS period of 493 km and 427km have been roads rehabilitated Rural Access and Mobility completed under RAMP2 and RAMP1 and maintained in Project 1 (P072644, FY08) respectively. supported states. Ongoing Rural Access and Mobility Project 2 (P095003, FY13) Commercial Agriculture Development Project (P096648, FY09) ASA: Delivered Nigeria Urbanization Review (P143476, FY15) 6.2: Additional 2 Million 0 in 2013 2 in 2017 PROJECTS: Achieved: The completion of the rural million people in Closed during the CPS period roads has benefited about 0.537M rural rural areas gained Rural Access and Mobility people under RAMP 2 and 1.6M under access to an all- Project 1 (P072644, FY08) RAMP1. season road in Ongoing supported states. Rural Access and Mobility Project 2 (P095003, FY13) Outcome 7: Enhanced country’s preparedness to respond to natural hazards, climate risks and natural disasters (resilience) 7.1: # ha of land Hectare 0 in 2013 2,800 in PROJECTS: Off track: A total of 124.34 Ha of treated for erosion. 2017 Ongoing targeted sub-watersheds have been Nigeria Erosion and Watershed treated for erosion with selected Management Project (P124905, measures. FY12) 7.2: % of upgraded Percentage 0 in 2013 60 in 2017 Achieved: 75% of Hydro Met stations or new Hydro Met providing data that is published stations providing annually and uploaded to the data that are web achieved in 2017. published annually 34 Indicator Unit of Baseline Original WBG Program Measurement Value FY17 End Status Target Value and uploaded to the web. Engagement Area: Financing For Development Outcome 8: Expanded financing opportunities for SMEs 8.1: Loans Number 0 in 2013 60,000 in PROJECTS: Off Track: 13,049 SME loans Outstanding to 2017 Ongoing outstanding. SMEs IFC – GTB This is largely due to how banks have IFC – Diamond Bank responded to the macro environment IFC – Access Bank and changes in IFC’s activity with IFC – Ecobank Nigerian financial institutions. IFC – FCMB 8.2: Access to Million 0 in 2013 2 in 2017 PROJECTS: On track: 1.65M micro entrepreneurs Loans for micros Ongoing had been reached with financial (Additional 2 IFC – MicroCred MFB Nigeria services. million micro IFC – Advans Nigeria entrepreneurs IFC – ABMFB provided with financial services by IFC) Outcome 9: Improved supply of longer term financing 9.1: New wholesale Yes/No No in 2014 Yes in 2017 PROJECTS: Achieved: Substantial progress was financial institutions Ongoing recorded with the establishment and are established and x Development Finance operationalization of the Development operational. The Project (P146319) Bank of Nigeria, with most notable institutions are the x Housing Finance achievements including recruitment of DBN and NRMC. Development Project key members of the executive (P131973) management team, establishment of ASA: the Board, obtaining license from the Delivered Central Bank of Nigeria on March 29, 2017, and selection and appraisal of 4 participating financial institutions with 35 Indicator Unit of Baseline Original WBG Program Measurement Value FY17 End Status Target Value x Boosting Financial plans for lending operations by the end Inclusion in Nigeria of 2017. (P147939) x Inclusive Markets (P147941) x Investment Climate Assessment (P147940) Ongoing x Programmatic Approach to Financial Sector Development (FY16-FY18) Outcome 10: Improved financial Infrastructure 10.1: Value of Million 0 in 2013 Credit PROJECTS: Credit reporting – On track ($1,405m). financing facilitated reporting - Ongoing: Nigeria Credit Collateral registry – Off track through WBG- 1,634. Reporting Project (IFC) ($0.489m). supported financial Collateral Nigeria Secured Transactions infrastructure. registry – & Collateral Registry Project 4,500 (IFC) 10.2: Value of Million 0 in 2013 332 PROJECTS: Dropped and replaced by new securities Ongoing: Nigeria Secured indicators that better capture progress. transactions. Transactions & Collateral Registry Project (IFC) 10.2 No of SMEs Million 0 in 2013 1.0M Nigeria Credit Reporting Achieved. 1.2M covered in credit Project (IFC) bureaus _ 10.3 Number of Million 0 in 2013 11,000 Nigeria Secured Transactions On-track. Since the launch of the SMEs that have & Collateral Registry Project collateral registry in May 2016, over received loans (IFC) 15,000 registrations have been made, secured with 97.5% of which have been for movable property 36 Indicator Unit of Baseline Original WBG Program Measurement Value FY17 End Status Target Value financing of individuals, MSME enterprises. 9,676 have received loans. Strategic Cluster 2: Quality, Effectiveness and Efficiency of Social Service Delivery at State Level for Greater Social Inclusion Engagement Area: Strengthening Community Driven Mechanisms for Social Inclusion, and Effectiveness of Social Protection Programs Outcome 11: Improved targeting of social protection and increased employment readiness of youth in supported states. 11.1: Improved Number 0 in 2013 10 in 2017 PROJECTS: Achieved: 14 States have now setup targeting of social Ongoing Social Registers including 5 States protection programs Youth Employment and Social from the North East of Nigeria with in states as Protection Project (P126964, systems for registration of IDPs and measured by the # FY13) other vulnerable persons of states using the Community and Social unified registry of Development (P090644, FY09) beneficiaries and Pipeline common targeting National Social Safety Nets mechanism. Project (P151488) ASA: Delivered Sharing Prosperity in Nigeria: An Analytical Work Program on Jobs and Social Protection (P146872, FY15) Improving Governance in Social Sectors (P132571, FY14) Poverty Work Program (P157742, FY15) 11.2: Enhanced Number 0 in 2013 100,000 in PROJECTS: On Track: About 23,000 youths from resilience of the 2017 Ongoing: Youth Employment 7 States are participating in skills for youth participating and Social Protection Project job program. While about 10,000 in workfare (P126964, FY13) youths and women selected from the 37 Indicator Unit of Baseline Original WBG Program Measurement Value FY17 End Status Target Value programs in Community and Social social registry in 5 States are supported states as Development (P090644, FY09) benefiting from Public works program. measured by the National Social Safety Nets NSSNP which became effective in number of youths Project (P151488, FY16) October 2017 will contribute to the who received achievement of the goal by FY19 end. orientation and life skills training. 11.3: Increased in Number 0 in 2013 1,000,00 PROJECTS: On track: 668,000 by October 2017. % of poor Ongoing NSSNP which became effective in beneficiaries Youth Employment and Social October 2017 will contribute to the (lowest quintiles) Protection Project (P126964, achievement of the goal by FY19 end. from targeted poor FY13) households Community and Social receiving cash Development (P090644, FY09) transfers. State Expenditure Effectiveness for Results (P121455) National Social Safety Nets Project (P151488) Outcome 12: Increased Access of Poor and Vulnerable to Social and Economic Services 12.1: Number 900,000 in 1,350,000 PROJECTS: Achieved: Close to 1.8 million 50 percent increase 2012 Ongoing households in 27 States are now in the # of poor Community and Social benefiting from CSDP which is households with Development (P090644) providing increased access to social, access to social and natural and livelihood support livelihood support services. services through community development plans in supported areas. Engagement Area: Coverage and Quality of Health Services Outcome 13: Improved coverage and quality of health service delivery 38 Indicator Unit of Baseline Original WBG Program Measurement Value FY17 End Status Target Value 13.1: The share of Percentage 33 in 2013 43 by 2017 PROJECTS: Achieved: 64.7 child deliveries that Ongoing are assisted by States Health Program trained health Investment Project (P120798, personnel in 3 states FY12) increases to 43 % Nigeria Program to Support by 2017. One Million Lives (P146583, FY15) ASA: Delivered Nigeria Service Delivery Indicators (P145455, FY15) SURE-P MCH Impact Evaluations (P144096, FY15) 13.2: The share of Percentage 25.4 in 2013 45.4 by PROJECTS: On track: 40.1 children 12-23 2017 Ongoing months old who are States Health Program fully immunized in Investment Project (P120798, 3 states increases to FY12) 45.4% by 2017. Nigeria Program to Save One Million Lives (P146583, FY15) ASA: Ongoing – completion in Dec 2017 NG-Quality Assessment/Resource Tracking (P132947) Resource Tracking in Health in Nigeria (P152141) 13.3: % of under-5 Percentage 44.6 in 2010 60 by 2017 PROJECTS: Achieved: 60 children sleeping Closed during the CPS period under insecticide 39 Indicator Unit of Baseline Original WBG Program Measurement Value FY17 End Status Target Value treated net the night Malaria Booster Project preceding the (P097921, FY07) survey increased ASA: from 44.6 % in Delivered 2010 to 60%. NG-Malaria Control Program (P105846, FY16) 13.4: At least 80 % Percentage December 80 by 2017 PROJECTS: Achieved: About 97% - 98% Polio coverage with oral 2012, 90 Ongoing coverage through project intervention. polio vaccine coverage (8 Polio Eradication Support Nigeria has successfully interrupted sustained in every endemic (P130865, FY13) the wild polio virus transmission for a state. states period lasting over 14 months. average) 13.5: % of pregnant Percentage 18 in 2013 40 by 2017 PROJECTS: Achieved: Of the 5.2million women women living with Closed from the target group who were HIV who receive a HIV/AIDS Program successfully screened under the complete course of Development Project II project, according to FMoH program antiretroviral (P102119, FY09) data for 2010 and 2016, up to 83,000 prophylaxis to ASA: beneficiaries were successfully reduce the risk of Delivered: Support to HPDP2 supported, translating to 52% of target. mother to child FSW Implementation transmission (P154218) increased from 18% to 40%. 13.6: Additional in- Patients 148,268 in 2,000,000 PROJECTS: Off Track: 176,954 patients served as and out patients in 2013 by 2017 IFC - Hygeia at June 2017; only about 19% increase private hospital from the baseline within a one year facilities to period. complement public healthcare delivery. Engagement Area: Efficiency, Equitable Access and Quality of Education Services Outcome 14: Improved learning environment and management 40 Indicator Unit of Baseline Original WBG Program Measurement Value FY17 End Status Target Value 14.1: 10,000 Number 31,243 in 41,243 in PROJECTS: Achieved: In 2016, a total of 13,694 additional teachers 2013, 2017 Ongoing teachers have been deployed in the in rural areas. delivered by State Education Program three states Anambra, Bauchi and Ekiti the results Investment Project (P122124, against the 10,000 targeted. This gave based FY13) rise to a total of 44,937 teachers sent to financing of the rural area; a 9% increase above the education target. services in 3 states 14.2: 50% of Number 4,000 2000 PROJECTS: On track: 1,200 schools have supported schools supported schools Closed improved in the learning outcomes, demonstrate schools in improved Lagos Eko Secondary representing 60 percent of the target. improvements in 2013, Education Project (P106280, learning outcomes. delivered by FY09) the results Ongoing based State Education Program financing of Investment Project (P122124, education FY13) services in 3 ASA: states Delivered Governance and Financing of Basic Education in Nigeria Skills for Competitiveness and Employability (P148688, FY14) 14.3: Number of Number 3,850 in 2013 5,000 by PROJECT Achieved. Exceeded target. Bridge students at IFC- 2017 Bridge Academy had 7000 students enrolled. supported education institutions. Outcome 15: Strengthened responsiveness of public and private training institutions to skills demand 15.1: Increased # of Number 4 in 2013 10 by 2017 PROJECTS: On track: 3 SEPIP states completed states with Ongoing their strategic plans as well as 5 41 Indicator Unit of Baseline Original WBG Program Measurement Value FY17 End Status Target Value approved Strategic State Education Program SEEFOR states have prepared their Plan for improving Investment Project (P122124, SPs. quality and FY13) relevance of TVE (Baseline 4 in 2013; Target 15 by 2017). Engagement Area: Coverage and Efficiency of Water Supply Services Outcome 16: Improved coverage and efficiency of water supply service in selected states 16.1: # of people Million 6.2 in 2013 7.5 in 2017 PROJECTS: Off Track: with access to Closed during the CPS Through the NUWSRPII intervention, improved water period: the completion of 74,000 house supply increased by National Urban Water Sector connections (Cross River) and 24,000 4 million (Old Reform Project II (P071391) (Lagos) amongst other key activities baseline: 9.2 million Ongoing resulted in 1.2million persons being in 2013, target: 13.2 National Urban Water Sector reached with improved access to million in 2017). Reform Project III (P123513, quality water supply. It is expected FY14) that with additional 30,000 household ASA: water connections, about 240,000 Delivered more people will benefit from State Water Agencies in improved water supply by January Nigeria: A Performance 2019 through the NUWSRPIII. Assessment - Economic Aspects of the Urban Water Sect (P150244, FY15) Nigeria WASH Poverty Diagnostics (P158634, FY16) 16.2: Cost recovery Percentage Lagos 25 in 25 increase PROJECTS: Achieved: The percentage of for operation and 2012; Cross on average Closed during the CPS period operation and maintenance costs maintenance River 55 in National Urban Water Sector recovered in Lagos and Cross River increased in average 2012; Reform Project II (P071391) states was 30% and 45% respectively. by 25 percent in Ongoing 42 Indicator Unit of Baseline Original WBG Program Measurement Value FY17 End Status Target Value supported states by National Urban Water Sector 2017. Reform Project III (P123513, FY14) ASA: Delivered State Water Agencies in Nigeria: A Performance Assessment - Economic Aspects of the Urban Water Sect (P150244, FY15) Delivered Nigeria WASH Poverty Diagnostics (P158634) Foundational/Cross Cutting Cluster 3: Governance and Public Sector Management Outcome 17: Enhanced transparency on budget execution in targeted states and at Federal level 17.1: # states and Number 0 in 2012 Federal Ongoing On track: 13 states at different stages the Federal GoN GoN and 8 Public Sector Governance of SIFMIS implementation. Seven (7) with an integrated supported Reform and Development States have implemented 3-5 key fully functioning states in Project (P097026, FY10) modules of IFIMIS (budget, financial 2017 State Employment and purchasing, general ledger, accounts information system Expenditure Project (P121455, payable, HRMIS and payroll) enabling producing and FY12) these States to produce and publish publishing Closed quarterly financial statements within consolidated Edo State Fiscal Improvement the stipulated time. Six (6) other States quarterly financial and Service Delivery Operation are at the verge of going live on statements within (P151480, FY15) IFMIS. At this pace, it is likely that 14 days of end of Lagos State DPO 3 (P151947, these States would have progressed to each fiscal quarter. FY15) and State and Local full delivery of the core components of Governance Reform Project the SIFMIS by end 2017/early 2018. 17.2: # of states that Number 24 in 2013 27 in 2017 PROJECTS: Achieved: There has been some have adopted Ongoing progress on procurement reform in procurement law several States. Twenty-seven (27) 43 Indicator Unit of Baseline Original WBG Program Measurement Value FY17 End Status Target Value increased from 24 Public Sector Governance States now have procurement law and in 2013 to 30 in Reform and Development the procurement agencies have been 2017. Project (P097026) established in all the States with some State Employment and of these States also having a Expenditure Project (P121455) procurement cadre in place. 17.3: % of public Percentage 30 in 2013 75 in 2017 Closed Achieved: with new target set for FY9 procurement Edo State Fiscal Improvement end. Target achieved as at February contracts above and Service Delivery Operation 2016. This reform is continuing to gain threshold awarded (P151480) traction as more States move towards through open Lagos State DPO 3 (P151947) achieving 100% compliance. competition in 12 states increased from 30 % in 2013 to 75% in 2017 Strategic Cluster 4: Restoring Macroeconomic Resilience – new cluster Outcome 19: Increased share of non-oil revenues in total revenues of the federal government 19.1: Non-oil Percentage 2 between 8 between Federal Level DPF did not Off track revenue growth. 2014 and 2015 and materialize 2015 2017 Outcome 20: Reduction in growth of high pressure recurrent expenditures 20.1: Real wage bill Percentage 3.4 between 0.5 between Federal Level DPF did not Off track growth of the 2014 and 2015 and materialize government at 2015 2017 federal and state levels. 44