WORLD I3A-NK OPERATIONS EVALUATION DE PARTIMENT 'Jl~ 20944 2000 Poverty Reduction in the 1990s An Evaluation of Strategy and Performance --A L- "i'J« %~ OPERATIONS EVALUATION DEPARTMENT ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS THROUGH EXCELLENCE AND INDEPENDENCE IN EVALUATION The Operations Evaluation Department (OED) is an independent unit within the World Bank; it reports directly to the Bank's Board of Executive Directors. OED assesses what works, and what does not; how a borrower plans to run and maintain a project; and the lasting contribution of the Bank to a country's overall development. The goals of evaluation are to learn from experience, to provide an objective basis for assessing the results of the Bank's work, and to provide accountability in the achievement of its objectives. It also improves Bank work by identifying and disseminating the lessons learned from experience and by framing recommendations drawn from evaluation findings. WORLD BANK OPERATIONS EVALUATION DEPARTMENT Qm 00 Poverty Reduction in the 1990s An Evaluation of Strategy and Performance Alison Evans 2000 The World Bank www.worldbank.org/html/oed Washington, D.C. U Copyright © 2000 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First edition August 2000 The opinions expressed in this report do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank or its member governments. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this volume do not imply on the part of the World Bank Group any judgment on the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Photo credits: cover, page 2, page 46: National Geographic; page 8, page 13, page 39, page 43: www.fotofinder.net ISBN 0-8213-4820-5 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Evans, Alison. Poverty reduction in the 1990s : an evaluation of strategy and performance / Alison Evans. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8213-4820-5 1. Economic assistance-Developing countries-Evaluation. 2. Poverty-Developing countries. 3. World Bank. I. Title. HC60 .E834 2000 338.9'009172'6-dc2l 00-043765 Q Printed on recycled paper. Contents vii Acknowledgments ix Foreword, Prefacio, Pr6face xiii Executive Summary, Resumen, R6sume Analytique xxiii Abbreviations and Acronyms 1 1. Introduction 1 Background 2 The Bank's Strategy 3 Structure of the Evaluation 5 2. Puffing the Bank's Strategy into Practice 5 The Evolving Paradigm 5 Broadening Concepts 6 Exogenous Factors 7 Implementing the Strategy 7 Country Assistance Strategies 7 Nonlending Work on Poverty 10 Poverty Strategy and the CAS 14 Overall Assessment 14 From Strategy to Lending 15 The Changing Composition of Lending 19 3. From Strategy to Effectiveness: The Country Dimension 19 Selected Country Progress 25 Overall Assessment 27 4. From Strategy to Effectiveness: The Project Dimension 27 Policy-Based Lending 30 Investment Lending 32 Targeted Investments 35 5. Lessons of Experience 35 Progress Since 1990 36 Growth and Social Sector Development 38 Which Policies Matter? 39 Lessons from Project Experience iii Poverty Reduction in the 1990s: An Evaluation of Strategy and Performance 45 6. Conclusions and Recommendations 45 Has the Bank Aligned Itself with the Objectives of the 1990 Strategy? 45 Has the Bank Linked Lending Volume and Country Efforts to Reduce Poverty? 45 Has the Bank Been Effective in Implementing Its Poverty Strategy and Has It Monitored Its Impact on Poverty Outcomes? 46 Is the Bank's 1990 Strategy Still Relevant? 46 The Road Ahead 46 Recommendations 49 Annexes 49 Annex A: Management Action Record 51 Annex B: Report from the Committee on Development Effectiveness (CODE) 53 Endnotes 57 Bibliography 57 Background Papers to the Study 57 References Boxes 6 Box 2.1: The Gender Dimensions of Poverty 6 Box 2.2: OD 4.15-Poverty Reduction 7 Box 2.3: The Value of Qualitative Poverty Research 9 Box 2.4: Poverty and the PER in Cambodia 10 Box 2.5: Growth and Employment in Africa 11 Box 2.6: Approaches to Broad-Based Growth 12 Box 2.7: Defining and Designing Safety Nets 21 Box 3.1: The Costs of Indonesia's Economic Crisis 23 Box 3.2: Distributional Change in the Context of Adjustment: The IMF/ESAF Experience in C6te d'Ivoire 24 Box 3.3: Perspectives from Ukrainian Stakeholders 24 Box 3.4: Country Perspectives on the Bank's Poverty Reduction Strategy 28 Box 4.1: Morocco-The Experience of a Social SAL 30 Box 4.2: Staff Views on the Strategy 32 Box 4.3: Institutional Development and HNP 33 Box 4.4: Staff Views on the PTI 33 Box 4.5: Marker Systems for Poverty Reduction-the DAC Experience 37 Box 5.1: Labor-Intensive Growth and Inequality 38 Box 5.2: Will the International Development Targets Be Met? 41 Box 5.3: Building on the Lessons of Success-The ALMP in Kenya 42 Box 5.4: India's Dairy Revolution 43 Box 5.5: The Bank's Project Experience with Microenterprise Finance iv C onte nts Tables 14 Table 2.1: The Link Between Lending Volume and Country Effort 28 Table 4.1: Comparative Performance of Poverty-Focused and Adjustment Lending 29 Table 4.2: Progress on Selected Poverty-Focused Adjustment Operations, 1992-97 31 Table 4.3: Effectiveness of Investment Lending by Poverty Lending Category 31 Table 4.4: Outcome Performance by Sector 36 Table 5.1: Growth in the 1990s 36 Table 5.2: Social Indicators in the 1990s 40 Table 5.3: Evaluation Lessons: Poverty-Targeted Interventions Figures 15 Figure 2.1: World Bank Lending and Country Poverty Reduction Effort 16 Figure 2.2: Anatomy of IDA and IBRD Investment Lending, 1980-99 16 Figure 2.3: A Shift in Favor of the Social Sectors 17 Figure 2.4: A Shift Away from the Traditional Sectors 20 Figure 3.1: Indonesia's Record Through the 1980s and 1990s 22 Figure 3.2: Signs of Progress in Ghana 31 Figure 4.1: Outcome Performance by Education Subsector 32 Figure 4.2: The Relative Performance of PTI and Non-PTI Projects, 1992-99 37 Figure 5.1: The Relationship Between Ten Years of Growth and Poverty Levels V illuv m Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a team in the Country facilities and collegial support during preparation of Evaluation and Regional Relations Group of the the evaluation, which is most gratefully acknowledged. Operations Evaluation Department (OEDCR) under The report benefited from many comments and the overall guidance of Ruben Lamdany, manager. The suggestions from OED staff members, particularly team included Alison Evans (task manager), Sohail J. Poonam Gupta, Fareed Hassan, Luis Ramirez, Susan Malik (deputy task manager), Shamit Chakravarti, Stout, and Warren van Wicklin. Peer review comments Jane-Frances Kelly, Diana Qualls, and Carlos Reyes. were received from Ravi Kanbur and Kalanidhi Research assistance was provided by Rachel Subbarao. A wide array of comments from Regional Wrangham and Elizabeth Lovell. External validation staff and members of the Poverty Sector Board have of the CAS evaluation results was provided by Dr. John been incorporated. Various stages of the report have Healey and Prof. G. M. Desai. Background papers been discussed both inside and outside the Bank, and were prepared by David Bigman; Arjan de Haan, the team would like to thank the many contributors to Michael Lipton, Elaine Darbellay, and Imran Maten; those discussions. Lucia Hanmer; Shlomo Yitzhaki; and Richard Gerster Staff support throughout the review from Roziah and Judith Randall. Focus groups with client represen- Baba and Betty Casely-Hayford and editorial support tatives were organized and facilitied by a team from from William Hurlbut are gratefully acknowledged. Social Impact, Inc., under the guidance of Rolf Sarto- This publication was prepared by the Dissemination rius, assisted by Diana Qualls. Groupware sessions and Outreach team of the Partnerships and Knowledge with Bank staff were facilitated by Lesley-Ann Shneier Programs Group (OEDPK), under the guidance of (ISG), again assisted by Diana Qualls. Elizabeth Campbell-Pag6, including Caroline McEuen The Swiss Agency for Development and Coopera- (editor), Kathy Strauss and Aichin Lim Jones (graphics tion (SDC), through the OED-SDC Partnership, pro- and layout), and Juicy Qureishi-Huq (administrative vided financial assistance for the in-country focus assistant). groups and supported the preparation of the back- ground paper by Richard Gerster and Judith Randall. SDC also hosted a seminar in Berne for discussion of the early findings of the report. The Institute of Director-General, Operations Evaluation: Robert Picciotto Development Studies, Brighton, U.K., provided both. Director, Operations Evaluation Department: Gregory Ingram Manager, OEDCR: Ruben Lamdany Task Manager: Alison Evans vii F o r e v o r d FOREWORD PREFACIO PREFACE In 1990, when the Bank pre- En 1990, cuando el Banco En 1990, alors que la Banque pared its World Development preparó su Informe Mundial mondiale préparait son Report (WDR) on poverty, the sobre el Desarrollo (WDR) Rapport sur le développement prospects for global poverty reduc- acerca de la pobreza en el mundo, las dans le monde, les perspectives de tion looked promising. A review of perspectivas de reducción de la pobreza réduction de la pauvreté dans le global experience showed that a global eran prometedoras. Una revisión monde étaient excellentes. Une étude strategy emphasizing broad-based de las experiencias utilizados mostróba des expériences tentées à l'échelle de la growth and the equitable provision que el medio más efectivo para erradicar, planète démontrait alors qu'une of social services was the most effec- la pobreza, de forma gradual y stratégie axée sur une croissance à tive route for sustainable progress on sostenible, consistia en una estrategia grande échelle et sur une prestation poverty. For those too poor or too centrada en el crecimiento sobre la base équitable de services sociaux était la vulnerable to participate ln this pro- más amplia posible y la provisión voie la plus efficace pour une cess, a program of well-targeted equitativa de servicios sociales. En réduction durable de la pauvreté. Un transfers and safety nets was an cuanto a las regiones mas pobres o mas programme de transfert et des filets de essential complement to the strategy. vulnerables, para que estas pudieran sécurité bien ciblés représentaient un Since then the context in which participar en este proceso, se estableció complément indispensable à cette the Bank operates has altered signifi- que el complemento esencial a la stratégie pour les pays les plus cantly, and so has the international estrategia indicada consistiria en un démunis ou les plus vulnérables. economic environment. There have programa de redes de protección social Depuis lors, le contexte dans been significant improvements in y transferencias especificas. lequel la Banque fonctionne ainsi que social indicators in most regions, Desde entonces, el contexto en el que le contexte économique international and modest reductions in the propor- el Banco Ileva a cabo sus actividades ha ont considérablement changé. Les tion of people living on under $1 per cambiado significativamente, y lo mismo indicateurs sociaux de la plupart des day. But the absolute number of poor ha ocurrido en el ambiente econômico régions du globe ont évolué et le has continued to rise. The transition internacional. Se han producido nombre des personnes vivant avec in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, importantes mejorias en los indicadores moins d'un dollar par jour a connu which was not foreseen in 1990, has sociales de la mayoria de las regiones, asi une légère diminution. Cependant, le added large numbers of new poor to como una modesta reducción de la nombre absolu des personnes pauvres global poverty figures. Financial proporción de personas que viven con a continué d'augmenter. La transition volatility, AIDS, and civil war have menos de 1 dólar al dia. Sin embargo, el en Europe de l'Est et en Asie Centrale, also clouded the prospects for pov- número, en términos absolutos, de qui n'était pas prévue en 1990, a erty reduction. personas pobres ha seguido entraîné l'apparition d'un grand Against this backdrop, the Bank aumentando. Las transiciones que se han nombre de nouveaux pauvres qui sont has reconfirmed its commitment to producido en Europa del Este y en Asia venus augmenter les chiffres poverty reduction. A revised pov- Central, no previstas en 1990, han mondiaux sur la pauvreté. La volatilité erty reduction strategy is being pre- afñadido grandes cantidades de nuevos financière, le sida et la guerre civile ont pared, informed by the principles of pobres a las cifras de la pobreza global. obscurci les perspectives de réduction the Comprehensive Development La volatilidad financiera, el SIDA y las de la pauvreté. Framework (CDF) and shaped by guerras civiles también han contribuido a Une fois encore, la Banque a the ongoing work of the Poverty ensombrecer las perspectivas que se réitéré son engagement pour une Reduction Strategy Initiative (PRSI) tenian en 1990 para la reducción de la réduction de la pauvreté. Elle prépare and the WDR 2000/2001 on pov- pobreza en el mundo. une nouvelle stratégie de réduction de erty. This evaluation is OED's con- Frente a este empeoramiento, el la pauvreté en suivant les principes du tribution to the strategy review Banco ha vuelto confirmar su Cadre de développement intégré et en process. It is too early to evaluate compromiso de reducir la pobreza. Se tenant compte du travail continu de ix Poverty Re duction in the 1990s: An Evaluation of Strategy and Performance the direction set by these new está preparando una estrategia l'Initiative en faveur des initiatives; instead, the report - revisada para esta reducciôn, stratégies de réduction de la examines the direction set for basada en los principios del MID, pauvreté et du Rapport sur le the Bank by the 1990 strat- - asi como en el trabajo développement dans le monde egy. It examines implementa- continuado de la Iniciativa de la (2000-2001) à paraître. Cette tion of the strategy and draws Estrategia de lucha contra la évaluation est une contribution lessons of experience about pobreza (PRSI) y en el próximo du Département de l'évaluation the relevance of the Bank's informe WDR 2000/2001. Esta des opérations au processus de evolving policy framework for pov- evaluación es la contribución de la OED révision de la stratégie pour la erty reduction. al proceso de revisión de la estrategia. réduction de la pauvreté. Il est encore The report concludes that the Todavia es muy pronto para poder trop tôt pour évaluer l'orientation 1990 strategy and the momentum it evaluar la dirección establecida por estas donnée par ces nouvelles initiatives. Le created have had a positive and nuevas iniciativas; en lugar de evaluar, bo rapport examine plutôt l'orientation significant impact on the Bank's op- que hace el informe es examinar la que la stratégie de 1990 avait fixée à la erational work on poverty. The strat- dirección que la estrategia definida en Banque. Il examine la mise en oeuvre egy was critical in highlighting the 1990 estableció para el Banco; el informe de la stratégie et tire des leçons de importance of broad-based growth examina la implementaciôn de dicha l'expérience ainsi acquise afin de for poverty reduction and in focusing estrategia y extrae lecciones, déterminer la pertinence du cadre operational priorities on the proporcionadas por la experiencia, acerca stratégique évolutif de la Banque pour equitable provision of social services, de la relevancia del marco de las politicas la réduction de la pauvreté. impacting both the composition of de evolución del Banco, encaminadas a Le rapport conclut que la stratégie Bank assistance and the priorities of reducir la pobreza en el mundo. de 1990 et l'élan qu'elle a créé ont eu other development agencies. The En el informe se concluye que la d'importantes répercussions positives strategy also spurred a significant estrategia definida en 1990 y el impulso sur les interventions de la Banque improvement in the poverty knowl- que ésta creô han tenido un notable pour réduire la pauvreté. La stratégie a edge base that now spans the wider impacto positivo sobre el trabajo largement contribué à mettre en development conmnunity. operativo que el Banco Ileva a cabo en lumière l'importance d'une croissance However, the Bank has found it relación con la pobreza. La estrategia fue à grande échelle pour réduire la difficult to operationalize broad- decisiva al resaltar la importancia que el pauvreté et à axer les priorités sur une based growth through tailor-made crecimiento sobre una base Io màs amplia prestation équitable des services country assistance programs. Insuffi- posible tiene para la reducción de la sociaux, ce qui a eu des répercussions cient information is available on pobreza; asi como el enfoque de las sur la composition de l'aide de la whether lending for social services operaciones prioritarias dirigidas a la Banque et sur les priorités des autres has reached the poor, and social provisión equitativa de servicios sociales, agences de développement. Elle a aussi safety nets were often neglected. afectando tanto a la composiciôn de la permis d'améliorer la base de Overall, the Bank's inplementation ayuda proporcionada por el Banco como connaissance sur la pauvreté qui of the strategy was insufficiently a las prioridades establecidas por otras couvre maintenant une communauté focused on measuring and monitor- agencias dedicadas al desarrollo. de développement plus large. ing results linked to Bank assistance. Asimismo, la estrategia proporcionô una La Banque a cependant trouvé The report recommends that importante mejoria sobre los difficile la mise en place d'une the new poverty reduction strategy conocimientos bàsicos de la pobreza, que croissance à grande échelle par le biais include clear, monitorable bench- ahora engloba a una comunidad en de programme d'aide aux pays sur marks for assessing implementation desarrollo màs amplia. mesure. On ne dispose pas de performance, as well as a frame- No obstante, el Banco ha tenido suffisamment d'informations pour work for evaluating poverty out- dificultades para poner en marcha el déterminer si les pauvres ont bénéficié comes related to the assistance of crecimiento sobre una base amplia a des prêts accordés pour des services the Bank and other donors. All través de programas de ayuda sociaux et les filets de sécurité ont Sector Strategy Papers should be adaptados a cada pais. La informaciôn souvent été négligés. Dans l'ensemble, oriented toward poverty reduction disponible no es suficiente para la mise en oeuvre de la stratégie par la x Foreword and integrated into the revi- comprobar si los préstamos Banque ne tenait pas sion of the Bank's policy concedidos para servicios sociales suffisamment compte de la framework. Finally, OED han llegado a los pobres, y a nécessité de mesurer et de should strengthen its internal menudo se ha descuidado la contróler les résultats engendrés processes to ensure that a protección social. En conjunto, la « par l'aide fournie par cette poverty focus is the organiz- estrategia que el Banco ha derniére. ing principle of all OED implementado no se ha Le Rapport recommande evaluations. concentrado, hasta el grado que la nouvelle stratégie de réduction Ultimately, poverty reduction- deseado, en la evaluación y el control de de la pauvreté comporte des moyens and the focus on results-is a shared los resultados relacionados con la ayuda de mesure clairs et vérifiables pour enterprise of the Bank, its clients, proporcionada. évaluer les résultats de la mise en and development partners. Hence, El informe recomienda que la ceuvre, ainsi qu'un cadre permettant high priority should be given to nueva estrategia para la reducción de d'évaluer les répercussions de l'aide implementing the lessons of experi- la pobreza incluya criterios claros y fournie par la Banque et les autres ence through the Poverty Reduction controlables, que permitan observar el bailleurs de fonds. Tous les documents Strategy Papers. nivel de rendimiento, así como un sur la stratégie sectorielle devraient marco que evalúe los resultados de la viser une réduction de la pauvreté et pobreza relacionados con la ayuda étre intégrés á la révision du cadre proporcionada por el Banco y por stratégique de la Banque. Enfin, le otros donantes. Département de l'évaluation des Todos los Documentos relativos a opérations devrait renforcer ses estrategia sectorial deberían estar procédures internes afin de s'assurer orientados hacia la reducción de la que la pauvreté constitue la pobreza e integrados en la revisión del préoccupation principale de ces marco de las políticas del Banco. évaluations. Finalmente, la OED debería fortalecer Pour finir, la réduction de la sus procesos internos para garantizar pauvreté - de même que la recherche que la preocupación por la pobreza es de résultats - incombe á la Banque, á el principio organizador de todas las ses clients et aux agences de evaluaciones. développement. Par conséquent, il est En última instancia, la reducción de la indispensable de veiller avant tout á ce pobreza, y su enfoque en resultados, es que les Cadres stratégiques de la lutte una tarea que debe ser compartida por el contre la pauvreté s'inspirent des Banco, por sus clientes y por los socios leçons tirées de l'expérience passée. que promueven el desarrollo. Por lo tanto, debe darse una alta prioridad a la ejecución de las lecciones extraídas de la experiencia a través de los Documentos sobre la estrategia para la reducción de la pobreza. Robert Picciotto Director-General, Operations Evaluation Department xi Executive Summary EXECUTIVE RESUMEN RESUME SUMMARY ANALYTIOUE The World Development El Informe WDR de 1990: Le Rapport sur le Report (WDR) 1990: Poverty, pro- pobreza, proporcionô las bases para développement dans le monde (1990): vided the foundation for a World una estrategia del Banco Mundial de Pauvreté, a servi de base à la stratégie Bank strategy to help achieve glo- ayuda a la reducción de la pobreza de la Banque mondiale pour réduire la bal poverty reduction: global: pauvreté dans le monde : Encourage a pattern of growth • Estimular un crecimiento que • Encourager un modèle de that promotes the productive promueva el uso productivo de la croissance qui favorise une use of labor, the most abundant mano de obra, la cual es el utilisation productive de la main- asset of the poor, through poli- recurso màs abundante en los d'œuvre, la principale richesse des cies that "harness market in- países pobres, mediante politicas pauvres, par le biais de politiques centives, social and political que "aprovechen los incentivos qui « orientent les incitations du marché, les institutions politiques et sociales, l'infrastructure et la technologie (dans ce sens] » (p. 3). - Fournir aux pauvres les services sociaux de base en donnant la priorité aux soins de santé de première nécessité, à la planification familiale, à la nutri- tion et à l'éducation. r Mettre en place des programmes de transfert et des filets de sécurité bien ciblés pour aider les habitants des régions éloignées 'IV ou des régions manquant de ressources ou les groupes directement touchés par la transi- tion économique. institutions, infrastructure, and del mercado, las instituciones Depuis, dans un énoncé de mission technology [to that end]" (p. 3). sociales y politicas, la très clair, la Banque s'est de nouveau " Provide basic social services to infraestructura y la tecnologia" engagée à réduire la pauvreté: « Lutter the poor through a focus on (pag. 3). contre la pauvreté avec passion et primary health care, family • Proporcionar servicios sociales professionnalisme et obtenir des planning, nutrition, and pri- básicos a los pobres a través résultats durables ». On prépare mary education. atención médica primaria, actuellement une stratégie de réduction • Program well-targeted transfers planificacién familiar, nutriciôn y de la pauvreté révisée, dans laquelle on and safety nets to support those educación primaria. tient compte des conclusions du living in remote and resource- • Programar redes de protecciôn Rapport sur le développement dans le poor regions or groups directly social y transferencias monde (2000-2001) à paraître. Ce affected by economic transition. seleccionadas para ayudar a las rapport est conçu de manière à xiii Poverty Reduction in the 1990s: An Evaluation of Strategy and Performance The Bank has since personas que viven en las contribuer au processus de reconfirmed its commitment - regiones más remotas y pobres révision de la stratégie. Il examine to poverty reduction through más en recursos o a los grupos la mise en oeuvre de la stratégie a forthright mission state- más a fectados directamente por de 1990 et tire des leçons de ment: "To fight poverty with la transición econémica. l'expérience en rapport avec le passion and professionalism Desde entonces, el Banco ha cadre stratégique pour la for lasting results." A revised vuelto a confirmar su réduction de la pauvreté. poverty reduction strategy is being compromiso con la reducción de Le rapport conclut que la stratégie prepared in light of the findings of la pobreza, a través de una declaraciôn de 1990 a eu des répercussions the forthcoming WDR 2000/2001. abierta en su misión: "combatir la importantes et positives sur les This report is designed to contrib- pobreza, de forma apasionada y interventions de la Banque destinées à ute to the strategy review process. profesional, buscando resultados réduire la pauvreté. La stratégie a été It examines the implementation of duraderos". A raiz de los hallazgos que indispensable pour souligner the 1990 strategy and draws the se reflejan en el Informe WDR 2000/ l'importance d'une croissance à lessons of experience that touch on 2001, de próxima aparición, se està grande échelle si l'on veut réduire la the Bank's policy framework for preparando una revisión de la estrategia pauvreté et concentrer les priorités du poverty reduction. para la reducción de la pobreza, para service sur une répartition équitable The report concludes that the cuyo proceso de revision esté informe des services sociaux. Elle a permis de 1990 strategy has had a significant està diseiado. En esté se examina la remanier l'aide octroyée par la Banque and positive impact on the Bank's ejecución de la estrategia establecida en et de modifier les priorités des autres operational work on poverty. The 1990, y se extraen las lecciones agences de développement. La stratégie strategy was critical in highlighting derivadas de la experiencia y que afectan a aussi été à l'origine d'une the importance of broad-based al marco de políticas del Banco amélioration considérable de la base growth for poverty reduction and in encaminadas a la reducción de la de connaissances qui couvre focusing operational priorities on the pobreza. maintenant une communauté de equitable provision of social ser- El informe concluye que la développement plus large. vices. It helped to reshape both the estrategia definida en 1990 ha tenido La Banque a cependant trouvé composition of Bank assistance and un notable impacto positivo sobre el difficile de passer des politiques plus the priorities of other development trabajo operativo que el Banco Ileva a générales de la stratégie de 1990 à des agencies. The strategy also spurred a cabo en relación con la pobreza. La stratégies d'aide par pays, qui font face à significant improvement in the pov- estrategia fue decisiva en resaltar la des contraintes sociales et structurelles erty knowledge base that now spans importancia que tiene el crecimiento précises pour une croissance à grande the wider development community. sobre una base amplia para la échelle. On ne s'est pas suffisamment But the Bank has also found it reducción de la pobreza y el enfoque assuré que les pauvres bénéficiaient difficult to move from the policy hacia las prioridades operativas en vraiment des prêts octroyés pour les generalities of the 1990 strategy to- torno a la provisión equitativa de services sociaux et on n'a pas accordé ward Country Assistance Strategies servicios sociales. Contribuyô a suffisamment d'attention au rôle des (CASs) that address specific social reestructurar la composición de la filets de sécurité dans la gestions des and structural constraints to broad- ayuda proporcionada por el Banco y risques et de la vulnérabilité des based growth. Insufficient attention las prioridades establecidas por otras programmes. Dans l'ensemble, quand has been paid to ensuring that lending agencias dedicadas al desarrollo. elle a mis la stratégie en euvre, la Banque for social services actually benefits Asimismo, la estrategia impulsó una ne s'est pas suffisamment attardée à the poor, and to the integral role of importante mejoria de los mesurer et à contrôler les résultats social safety nets in managing risk conocimientos básicos sobre la obtenus grâce à son aide. and vulnerability to shocks. Overall, pobreza, que ahora engloba a una Lorsque la Banque procédera à la the Bank's implementation of the comunidad en desarrollo más amplia. mise en oeuvre de l'Initiative en faveur strategy was insufficiently focused on No obstante, para el Banco ha des stratégies de réduction de la measuring and monitoring results resultado también dificil pasar de las pauvreté, en collaboration avec le FMI, linked to Bank assistance. generalidades de las politicas elle devra relever deux défis : concevoir xiv Executive Summary As the Bank proceeds establecidas en la estrategia de sur mesure et mettre en oeuvre with implementation of the 1990 a las Estrategias de Ayuda a des stratégies d'aide sectorielles Poverty Reduction Strategy cada Pais (CAS), que intentan et par pays destinées à réduire la Initiative (PRSI) in collabora- dar respuesta a los obstàculos pauvreté, d'une part, et mettre tion with the IMF, the chal- sociales y estructurales concretos au point un cadre stratégique lenge will be twofold: (i) to que limitan el crecimiento sobre pour mesurer les résultats qui design and implement tailor- una base amplia. No se ha permettra de procéder à un made country and sector assistance prestado suficiente atenciàn a la examen continu du nouveau cadre de strategies deliberately aimed at pov- tarea de garantizar que los préstamos réduction de la pauvreté et des erty reduction, and (ii) to develop a concedidos para servicios sociales stratégies par pays, d'autre part. Ce strategic framework for measuring Ileguen a los pobres, ni al papel integral rapport fournit les conclusions de results that will allow ongoing que las redes de protección social juegan l'évaluation et des recommandations review of the new poverty reduction a la hora de amortiguar los riesgos y la pour atteindre ce but. framework and country poverty vulnerabilidad frente a las situaciones strategies. This report provides inesperadas. En conjunto, la puesta en Mise en pratique des stratégies evaluation findings and includes rec- pràctica de la estrategia por parte del La stratégie pour la réduction de la ommendations aimed at achieving Banco no se ha concentrado, hasta el pauvreté de 1990 a profondément été this goal. grado deseado, en la evaluaciôn y el intégrée aux activités de la Banque. seguimiento de los resultados Aujourd'hui, les prêts et les autres Putting Strategy into Practice relacionados con la ayuda activités sont beaucoup plus axés sur There has been a substantial proporcionada por éste. la réduction de la pauvreté qu'ils ne mainstreaming of the 1990 poverty Conforme el Banco prosiga con la l'étaient au début des années 90. Les reduction strategy in Bank opera- implementación de la PRSI en liens entre les informations sur la tions. Lending and nonlending colaboración con el FMI, el desafio pauvreté par pays et les stratégies de la activities are more sharply focused on tendrà dos facetas: (i) diseiiar y poner Banque par pays n'ont cessé de poverty reduction today than at the en pràctica estrategias de ayuda, s'améliorer. On dispose de beaucoup beginning of the 1990s. Linkages adaptadas a cada pais y sector, cuyo plus de profils de la pauvreté between country information on pov- fin expreso serà el de reducir los qu'auparavant, particulièrement en ce erty and the Bank's country strategies niveles de pobreza, y (ii) desarrollar un qui concerne les données qui ne have steadily improved. Substantial marco estratégico para la evaluación relèvent pas des revenus. Cela a permis gains have been made in the avail- de los resultados que permita revisar, de renforcer le lien entre la manière ability of poverty profiles, particu- de forma continua, el nuevo marco de d'établir un diagnostique de la larly their non-income dimensions. reducciôn de la pobreza y las pauvreté dans les stratégies d'aide par This bas strengthened the linkage estrategias adaptadas a cada pais. El pays et la pertinence de la stratégie between the diagnostic treatment of informe revela los resultados de la d'aide pour la réduction de la poverty in the CAS and the relevance evaluación e incluye recomendaciones pauvreté. Toutefois, les progrès of the assistance strategy for poverty encaminadas a lograr estos objetivos. réalisés ne sont pas réguliers et reduction. Progress is still uneven, demeurent modestes dans l'ensemble, however. While the quality of pov- Puesta en práctica de la même si la qualité des évaluations de la erty assessments bas improved, it is estrategia pauvreté s'est améliorée. La manière still modest overall. The treatment of La estrategia para la reducción de la dont on a traité les filets de sécurité social safety net issues, in particular, pobreza definida en 1990 se ha ido sociaux n'a pas été satisfaisante. De has been less than satisfactory. Many convirtiendo en el eje principal de las nombreuses évaluations continuent de assessments still do not convincingly operaciones del Banco. En la actualidad, ne pas établir les liens importants qui address macro linkages to poverty or las actividades del Banco, relacionadas existent avec la pauvreté, en particulier sectoral issues, particularly the con préstamos o no, están más les rôles majeurs de la politique prominent roles of land policy, food centradas en la reducción de la pobreza foncière, de la politique alimentaire et policy, and rural development in de bo que bo estaban al comienzo de la du développement rural pour la poverty reduction. década de los 90. Las relaciones réduction de la pauvreté. xv Pooverty Reduction in the 1990s. An Evaluation of Strategy and Performance Country Assistance existentes entre la información Stratégies d'aide par pays Strategies - sobre la pobreza en cada pais y La majorité des stratégies d'aide A majority of CASs, and par- las estrategias del Banco han ido par pays, et en particulier celles ticularly those prepared in mejorando de forma constante. préparées au cours des années FY97-99, exhibit a tangible Se han logrado grandes avances - financières 97, 98 et 99, commitment to the first two gracias a la disponibilidad de témoignent d'une préoccupation pillars of the 1990 strategy. perfiles sobre la pobreza en las réelle pour deux éléments Growth is at the center of all CASs, distintas zonas, especialmente en fondamentaux de la stratégie de 1990. and the focus on social service provi- los aspectos no referentes a sus ingresos. La croissance est au centre de toutes les sion is almost universal. However, Esto ha fortalecido el vinculo entre el stratégies d'aide par pays et l'intérêt CAS policy frameworks have taken tratamiento diagnóstico de la pobreza pour la fourniture de services sociaux time to move from the generalities of establecido en las CAS y la relevancia de aux populations démunies est the strategy to recommendations la estrategia de ayuda para la reducción pratiquement universel. Toutefois, il a that are concrete and tailored to de la pobreza. Sin embargo, los avances fallu du temps pour que le cadre specific country contexts. The link- son todavia desiguales. Mientras que la stratégique des stratégies d'aide par pays ages between broad-based growth calidad de las evaluaciones de las passe d'une orientation générale à des and poverty are not always clear. situaciones de pobreza ha mejorado, en recommandations concrètes et adaptées Too few CASs provide a clear priori- su conjunto es aûn modesta. En au contexte de chaque pays. Les liens tization of policy choices or address concreto, el tratamiento de los temas entre une croissance à grande échelle et possible tradeoffs and their likely relacionados con las redes de protección la pauvreté ne sont pas toujours clairs. impact on the poor. There have been social no ha sido satisfactorio. Muchas Trop peu de stratégies établissent des tangible improvements in linking evaluaciones siguen sin establecer priorités claires pour les choix de poverty goals with CAS policy ma- macrovinculos convincentes con la politiques ou traitent des choix trices, but many CASs still make pobreza o los factores sectoriales, en possibles et de leurs répercussions inadequate arrangements to monitor especial, con los papeles claves que probables sur les pauvres. De réels and evaluate progress toward pov- juegan el reparro de las tierras, la progrès ont été réalisés en ce qui erty reduction objectives. distribución de los alimentos y el concerne l'établissement de liens entre les desarrollo de las zonas rurales para la objectifs en matière de pauvreté et les Lending reducción de la pobreza. choix de politique, mais beaucoup de In lending, the priorities implicit in stratégies d'aide par pays prennent des the strategy have had a significant Estrategias de ayuda a cada dispositions mal adaptées afin de influence on the composition of pais (CAS) contrôler et d'évaluer les progrès réalisés investment activities and the alloca- Una mayoría de las CAS, especialmente pour atteindre les objectifs de réduction tions to countries in recent years: las preparadas en los aios fiscales 97- de la pauvreté. 99, muestran un compromiso tangible • An increasing share of Interna- con los dos primeros pilares de la Prêts tional Development Associa- estrategia establecida en 1990. Todas las En ce qui concerne les prêts, les tion (IDA) and International CAS abordan el crecimiento como priorités implicites dans la stratégie Bank for Reconstruction and cuestión clave, y casi todas ellas se ont eu une influence significative sur le Development (IBRD) lending centran en la provision de servicios choix des activités d'investissement et bas gone to countries that dem- sociales. No obstante, los marcos de de l'attribution des ressources par onstrate stronger borrower per- políticas de las CAS han tardado pays au cours de ces dernières années. formance and greater effort on bastante en pasar de las generalidades a poverty reduction goals. las recomendaciones concretas y • De plus en plus de prêts accordés • Lending bas increasingly adaptadas a los contextos específicos de par l'Association internationale favored sectors and subsectors cada pais. Los vinculos entre el de développement (AID) et par la regarded by WDR 1990 as crecimiento sobre la base màs amplia Banque internationale pour la re- directly relevant to the poor- posible y la pobreza no siempre están construction et le développement rural and urban infrastruc- claros. Son muy pocas las CAS que (BIRD) ont été octroyés aux pays Xvi Executive Sumnary ture, primary and second- proporcionan una escala de qui affichent de meilleurs ary education, basic health, prioridades clara en relación con résultats grâce aux sommes déjà social assistance, and mi- las politicas posibles o que prêtées et qui prouvent ainsi crofinance. < describen las posibles qu'ils font des efforts pour • Lending for the three main consecuencias negativas y el - réduire la pauvreté. social sectors-education; impacto que probablemente • Les prêts ont de plus en plus health, nutrition, and popu- tendrán sobre los pobres. Se han favorisé les secteurs et les sous- lation; and social protection - producido mejorias tangibles a la secteurs que le Rapport sur le reached 20 percent of total hora de relacionar los objetivos de développement dans le monde Bank lending, compared with reducción de la pobreza con los marcos (1990) identifiait comme ayant just 5 percent in the early de politicas de las CAS, pero en muchas un intérêt direct pour les pauvres 1980s. CAS todavia se realizan disposiciones - l'infrastructure rurale et inadecuadas en Io que se refiere al urbaine, l'enseignement primaire Performance seguimiento y la evaluación del progreso et secondaire, les services de santé In assessing performance, it is impor- de obtencién de metas relacionadas con de base, l'aide sociale et les micro tant to recognize that poverty out- la reducciôn de la pobreza. finances. comes are the product of a wide * Les prêts accordés aux trois variety of factors, and that few of Préstamos principaux secteurs sociaux - them are under exclusive Bank con- En cuanto a los préstamos, las l'éducation; la santé, la nutrition trol. While the volume of lending has prioridades implicitas en la estrategia et les naissances; la protection increased significantly in the social han tenido una importante influencia sociale - représentent maintenant sectors, concerns about the loss of en la composiciôn de las inversiones y 20 % des prêts de la Banque, possible synergies with other sectors en las asignaciones a los paises en los comparativement à seulement and limited knowledge of poverty afños recientes: 5 % au début des années 80. impact have emerged. Basic health projects continue to perform below • Una parte creciente de los Rendement the average for the Bank, and below préstamos concedidos por la Lorsqu'on évalue le rendement, il est the average for targeted operations Asociación Internacional de important de reconnaître que de generally, although the record is Fomento (AIF) y por el Banco nombreux facteurs sont à l'origine de la improving. Primary and secondary Internacional de Reconstrucción pauvreté et que peu de ces facteurs education projects also showed a y Fomento (BIRF) se ha dépendent seulement de la Banque. downturn in the mid-1990s. After destinado a los paises que Alors que le volume des prêts a almost two decades of experience, not muestran un mejor considérablement augmenté dans les enough is known about what has been comportamiento como secteurs sociaux, des craintes sont achieved for the poor with invest- prestatarios y que realizan los apparues en ce qui concerne la ments in the social sectors. More mayores esfuerzos por alcanzar disparition de synergies possibles avec attention needs to be paid to assuring los objetivos asociados a la d'autres secteurs et la connaissance quality at entry and that adequate reducción de la pobreza. limitée des conséquences de la pauvreté. arrangements have been made to • De forma creciente, los préstamos Le rendement des projets de santé de assess social and poverty impact. han favorecido a los sectores y base continue de se situer au-dessous de The record on integrating the subsectores considerados en el la moyenne pour la Banque et au- priorities of the poverty strategy Informe WDR 1990 como dessous de la moyenne pour les activités into adjustment lending is un- directamente relevantes para los ciblées, même si les résultats even. While there are tangible pobres, a saber, infraestructuras s'améliorent. Les projets d'enseignement gains in protecting overall levels rurales y urbanas, educación primaire et secondaire ont aussi of social spending, progress is primaria y secundaria, atención démontré un recul vers le milieu des limited in ensuring equitable re- sanitaria bàsica, asistencia social, années 90. Après presque 20 ans allocations of spending and in y microfinanzas. d'expérience, on ne dispose pas encore making adequate safety net pro- • Los préstamos a los tres d'informations suffisantes sur ce qui a xvii Poverty Reductioi in the 1990s: An Evaluation cf Straregy and Performance visions. Few loans include principales sectores sociales - été fait pour les pauvres avec les measures to remove distor- - educación, nutrición y población, investissements dans les secteurs tions that directly affect the asi como protección social - sociaux. Il faudrait veiller poor. alcanzaron un 20% de los davantage à la qualité des projets Projects included in the Pro- préstamos totales concedidos por dès le départ et s'assurer que des gram of Targeted Interventions el Banco, a diferencia de un 5% dispositions ont été prises pour (PTI) have performed better, on de principios de los afios 80. évaluer les répercussions sociales average, than other projects in the et les répercussions sur la pauvreté. Les same sectors, largely because of their Rendimiento résultats enregistrés en ce qui concerne greater emphasis on beneficiary and A la hora de evaluar el rendimiento, es l'intégration des priorités de la stratégie community participation at the design importante tener en cuenta que los pour la réduction de la pauvreté aux and implementation stages and their resultados son fruto de una variedad de prêts à l'ajustement sont encore relatively greater attention to perfor- factores, y que sólo una parte de éstos irréguliers. Alors que l'on fait de réels mance monitoring. Lending specifi- estân bajo el control exclusivo del progrès en ce qui concerne la protection cally to community-based projects, Banco. Mientras que el volumen de los du niveau global des dépenses sociales, including social funds, has performed préstamos ha aumentado notablemente on ne réalise que des progrès limités well overall; 81 percent of projects en los sectores sociales, han surgido quand il s'agit de garantir une approved since 1987 have achieved preocupaciones con respecto a la réattribution équitable des dépenses et satisfactory outcomes. But inclusion in pérdida de posibles sinergias con otros de fournir des filets de sécurité adéquats. the PTI does not ensure that a project sectores y al limitado conocimiento del Peu de prêts comprennent des mesures delivers benefits directly to the poor. impacto de estós sobre la pobreza. Los destinées à supprimer les inégalités qui PTI criteria are open to wide interpre- proyectos relacionados con la atención affectent directement les pauvres. tation and involve no explicit require- sanitaria bàsica siguen mostrando un Les projets qui faisaient partie du ment that project results be monitored rendimiento resultados que es inferior al programme d'intervention ciblée or that impacts on the poor be demon- promedio del mostrado pot los demàs affichent, en moyenne, un meilleur strated. proyectos financiados pot el Banco, e rendement que les autres projets dans Overall, lack of systematic at- inferior también al mostrado pot las les mêmes secteurs. Ceci s'explique en tention to monitoring and evalua- operaciones en general, aunque este grande partie par le fait qu'on insiste tion (M&E) has contributed to a rendimiento està mejorando. Los davantage sur la participation des major knowledge gap about the proyectos relacionados con la educación bénéficiaires et sur la participation contribution of Bank lending to primaria y secundaria también communautaire au moment de la poverty and social outcomes. mostraron un empeoramiento a conception et de la mise en oeuvre et inediados de los 90. Tras casi dos qu'on est plus attentif à la surveillance Regional Trends décadas de experiencia, no se sabe du rendement. Dans l'ensemble, les The WDR 1990 made sound fore- suficiente acerca de qué es lo que se ha prêts accordés à des projets casts of the prospects for growth and logrado para los pobres mediante las communautaires, y compris les fonds improvements in social indicators. inversiones en los sectores sociales. pour les secteurs sociaux, ont un bon However, the unexpected impact of Deben dedicarse mayores esfuerzos a rendement: 81 % des projets the economic and social transition in garantizar que los objetivos de las approuvés depuis 1987 ont obtenu Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and inversiones sean de la màxima calidad y des résultats satisfaisants. Mais ce of much slower growth than ex- a asegurarse de que se roman las n'est pas parce qu'un projet fait partie pected in Sub-Saharan Africa meant medidas adecuadas para poder evaluar du programme d'intervention ciblée that, overall, the forecasts were opti- el impacto social, y sobre la pobreza, de qu'il garantit que les pauvres en mistic. East Asia performed above estas inversiones. bénéficieront directement. Les critères expectations until the financial crisis El historial de éxito en cuanto a de ce type de programme permettent of 1997. Africa performed below integrar las prioridades de la estrategia une interprétation trop large et forecasted levels. IDA countries as a de reducción de la pobreza en el ajuste n'exigent pas clairement que l'on group made substantial improve- de los préstamos es desigual. Aunque se vérifie les résultats du projet et que ments in social indicators, but Africa han constatado avances tangibles en l'on démontre qu'il a eu des xviii Executive Summary bas lagged behind, and the cuanto a garantizar los niveles répercussions sur les pauvres. fragile gains that have been - globales de los gastos con Io que D'une manière générale, en made are in danger of being a fines sociales se refiere, los raison de l'absence d'une offset by civil strife, military < avances han sido limitados en el surveillance et d'une évaluation conflicts, and the effects of sentido de garantizar que las - systématiques des projets, on AIDS. reasignaciones equitativas de los ignore quelle est la contribution These are sobering trends, mismos y en cuanto a de la Banque à la réduction de la and worrisome in the light of the proporcionar redes de protección pauvreté et à l'amélioration des international community's commit- adecuadas. Pocos préstamos incluyen services sociaux. ment to achieving major reductions medidas destinadas a eliminar las in poverty and social inequality by distorsiones que afectan directamente a Tendances régionales 2015. Does the strategy emphasized los pobres. Le Rapport sur le développement dans by the Bank since 1990 still have Los proyectos incluidos en el le monde (1990) faisait des prévisions relevance for achieving global pov- Programa de intervenciones sur la croissance et sur l'amélioration erty reduction goals? seleccionadas (PTI) han mostrado un des indicateurs sociaux. Toutefois, en mejor comportamiento promedio, que raison des répercussions inattendues Relevance otros proyectos llevados a cabo en los de la transition économique et sociale The report finds that a strategy that mismos sectores, principalmente porque en Europe et en Asie Centrale, ainsi emphasizes the mutually reinforc- hacian mayor hincapié en la que de la croissance beaucoup plus ing benefits of sustained growth and participación de los beneficiarios y de la lente que prévue en Afrique sub- human resource development comunidad en las fases de su disefio e saharienne, les prévisions étaient remains highly relevant if combined implementaciôn, y también porque en optimistes. L'Asie de l'Est a dépassé with a focus on rural development ellos se prestaba mayor atenciôn al toutes les attentes jusqu'à la crise and a system of well-designed safety seguimiento de los resultados. En financière de 1997. Les indicateurs nets. Finding the right combination conjunto, los préstamos concedidos sociaux des pays de l'AID, considérés of policies to support long-term especificamente para proyectos basados en tant que groupe, ont growth and ensure that the poor en la comunidad, incluyendo los fondos considérablement progressé, mais benefit directly is a complex chal- sociales, han mostrado un buen l'Afrique est restée loin derrière et la lenge. The evidence points to the comportamiento; en el 81% de los guerre civile, les conflits militaires ainsi deleterious effects of inequality. proyectos aprobados desde 1987 han que le sida risquent de réduire à néant Based on the latest growth projec- mostrado resultados satisfactorios. Sin les quelques résultats fragiles obtenus tions, the prospects for reaching the embargo, la inclusiôn del PTI no dans cette région. target of halving absolute poverty garantiza que un proyecto proporcione Ces tendances sont préoccupantes by 2015 are poor in countries with beneficios directos a los pobres. Los si l'on se place du point de vue de high income inequality. criterios del PTI están sujetos a una l'engagement de la communauté The empirical evidence points amplia interpretación y en ellos no se internationale à réduire de façon to the importance of factors such as requiere de forma explicita que se significative la pauvreté et l'injustice property rights, strong institutions, controlen los resultados ni que se sociale d'ici 2015. La stratégie mise de and the distribution of assets in demuestre que los proyectos han tenido l'avant par la Banque depuis 1990 mediating the poverty-reducing consecuencias beneficiosas para los demeure-t-elle pertinente? effects of growth. It also highlights pobres. the need for well-targeted safety En resumen, la falta de una Pertinence nets to address growing problems of atención sistemática al seguimiento y a la Le rapport conclut qu'une stratégie volatility and economic downturn. evaluación ha contribuido a que exista qui met l'accent sur les avantages Rates of private investment are un importante vacio de información en mutuels d'une croissance soutenue et critically linked to the prospects for cuanto a la repercusiôn de los d'une mise en valeur de la main- long-term growth, which are linked préstamos del Banco en el logro de d'oeuvre demeure très pertinente si on in turn to the availability of infra- mejoras sociales y de reducciôn de la ne perd pas de vue le développement structure and credible institutions. pobreza. rural et si on met en place des filets de xix Pove ty R i eduction in the 1990s: An Evaluation of Stratcgy and Performaince More recent evidence points Tendencias regionales sécurité bien ciblés. Il est to the role of social capital in En el Informe WDR 1990 se extrêmement difficile de trouver shaping the ability of the poor realizaban previsiones la bonne combinaison de to take advantage of income alentadoras respecto a las politiques à mettre en oeuvre and welfare-enhancing oppor- perspectivas de crecimiento y de - pour permettre une croissance à tunities, and to the impor- mejoria de los indicadores long terme et s'assurer que les tance of participation in sociales. Sin embargo, el impacto pauvres en bénéficient ensuring that policies address issues inesperado de la transición directement. L'effet néfaste de that most directly affect the poor. económica y social que se ha producido l'inégalité est évident. D'après les en Europa y en Asia Central (ECA), asi dernières prévisions de croissance, il y The Road Ahead como del crecimiento mucho más lento a peu de chance que l'on parvienne à In sum, the thrust of the 1990 de bo esperado que se ha dado en África réduire de moitié la pauvreté d'ici strategy remains relevant, but it subsahariana, han demostrado que, en 2015, comme prévu, dans les pays où needs to be combined with a more general, estas previsiones fueron l'inégalité des revenus est élevée. comprehensive approach. Nurtur- demasiado optimistas. Asia Oriental Les preuves concrètes soulignent ing policy reform and building pro- mostró un comportamiento que l'importance de facteurs tels que le poor institutions is a long-term superaba las expectativas hasta la droit à la propriété, des institutions challenge. Lessons from project Ilegada de la crisis financiera de 1997. fortes et la distribution des richesses experience confirm the importance África mostrô un comportamiento pour que la croissance contribue à of a holistic approach to reach the inferior a los niveles previstos. El grupo réduire la pauvreté. Elles soulignent poor more effectively. This includes de paises que recibió ayuda de IDA aussi la nécessité de filets de sécurité a focus on local-level institutions mostró importantes mejorias en sus bien ciblés pour résoudre les and building on existing institu- indicadores sociales, pero Âfrica se ha problèmes de plus en plus importants tional frameworks wherever pos- quedado atrás, y sobre los de momento de la volatilité et du ralentissement sible, and on creating synergies avances que se han logrado pesa el économique. Le taux des across sectors for maximum impact. peligro de las revueltas civiles y los investissements privés est étroitement These are lessons that are consistent conflictos armados, asi como los efectos lié aux perspectives de croissance à with the Comprehensive Develop- del SIDA. long terme, lesquelles dépendent de ment Framework (CDF), echoed by Estas tendencias mueven a la l'existance d'une infrastructure et the findings of the WDR 2000/2001. reflexión sobre el anterior optimismo, d'institutions crédibles. Des preuves It is not possible to say more y resultan preocupantes a la luz del plus récentes révèlent le rôle que joue about the contribution of Bank compromiso de la comunidad le capital social pour permettre aux assistance to poverty reduction. The internacional de lograr importantes pauvres de profiter des possibilités qui 1990 strategy, and the operational reducciones de los niveles de pobreza y leur sont offertes pour améliorer leur guidelines based on it, have failed desigualdad social para el afño 2015. bien-être et leurs revenus ainsi que la to generate a clear emphasis on ¿Es todavia relevante la estrategia en la nécessité de politiques portant sur les measuring and monitoring results. que se ha centrado el Banco desde questions qui affectent le plus Carrying out this evaluation has 1990 en lo que se refiere a lograr los directement les pauvres. been made difficult by the large gap objetivos fijados de reducciôn de la in self- and independent evaluation pobreza global? Chemin à parcourir relating to poverty and social out- En résumé, l'idée maîtresse de la comes. A critical test of the Bank's Relevancia stratégie de 1990 demeure pertinente, evolving poverty strategy will be El informe afirma que una estrategia mais elle doit être combinée à une the design of a credible framework que hace énfasis en el refuerzo mutuo approche plus globale. L'élaboration for measuring the results of the de los beneficios del crecimiento d'une politique de réforme et la Bank's country assistance, and help- sostenido y el desarrollo de los création d'institutions qui travaillent ing to build local capacity for moni- recursos humanos sigue siendo pour les pauvres représentent un défi toring the impact of poverty relevante si se combina con un à long terme. Les leçons tirées de reduction programs. enfoque en el desarrollo de las zonas l'expérience des projets confirment xx Executive Summary rurales y con un sistema bien l'importance d'adopter une diseñado de redes de protección approche holistique afin de social. Encontrar la toucher les pauvres plus combinación adecuada de efficacement. Cela suppose que políticas que respalden el l'on se concentre sur les crecimiento a largo plazo y que institutions locales, que l'on garanticen que los pobres se utilise les structures beneficiarán de forma directa es institutionnelles déjá en place quand un desafío complejo. Las pruebas c'est possible et que l'on crée apuntan hacia los efectos nocivos de davantage de synergie entre les las desigualdades. En base a las secteurs pour obtenir de meilleurs proyecciones de crecimiento más résultats. Tout ceci est compatible avec recientes, las perspectivas de alcanzar, le Cadre de développement intégré en el año 2015, el objetivo de reducir appuyé par les conclusions du la pobreza, en términos absolutos, son Rapport sur le développement dans le poco halagüeñas en los países en los monde (2000-2001). que los ingresos están muy Il n'est pas possible d'en dire desigualmente distribuidos. davantage sur la contribution de l'aide Las pruebas empíricas señalan la fournie par la Banque pour la importancia de factores tales como los réduction de la pauvreté. La stratégie derechos sobre la propiedad, las de 1990 et les lignes directrices qui en instituciones fuertes y la distribución ont découlé n'ont pas réussi á faire de los recursos, como indispensables accepter l'importance de mesurer et de para que el crecimiento se traduzca en surveiller les résultats obtenus. Les una reducción de la pobreza. écarts importants qui existent entre les Asimismo, estas pruebas resaltan la auto-évaluations et les évaluations necesidad de establecer redes de indépendantes réalisées afin de protección social bien dirigidas para mesurer les résultats obtenus pour la poder resolver los crecientes réduction de la pauvreté et problemas de volatilidad y l'amélioration des services sociaux empeoramiento económico. Las tasas rendent toute évaluation globale trés de inversión privada están difficile. Une épreuve décisive pour la decisivamente vinculadas a las nouvelle stratégie de la Banque perspectivas de crecimiento a largo consistera á concevoir un cadre plazo, las cuales a su vez están crédible qui permettra de mesurer les vinculadas a la disponibilidad de résultats de l'aide accordée par pays et infraestructuras y de instituciones d'aider á créer l'infrastructure dotadas de credibilidad. nécessaire dans chaque pays afin de Las pruebas más recientes surveiller les répercussions des subrayan la importancia del capital programmes de réduction de la social, en la determinación de la pauvreté. capacidad de los pobres para aprovechar sus ingresos y sus oportunidades de aumento de la riqueza; la participación tiene igual importancia para garantizar que las políticas respondan a los problemas que afectan más directamente a los pobres. xxi 'overty Reduction in the 1990s: An Evaluation of Strategy and Performance El camino a seguir - Resumiendo, el impulso inherente a la estrategia establecida en 1990 sigue siendo relevante, pero es necesario combinarlo con un enfoque más completo. Alentar la reforma de las políticas y construir instituciones que apoyen a los pobres son retos a largo plazo. Las lecciones extraídas de la experiencia de los proyectos llevados a cabo hasta ahora confirman que es importante adoptar un enfoque holístico para que la ayuda llegue a los pobres de forma más efectiva. Esto incluye centrarse en crear instituciones de carácter local, aprovechando las estructuras institucionales ya existentes siempre que sea posible, y en crear sinergías entre los distintos sectores para lograr los máximos resultados. Estas lecciones son coherentes con el MID, y están respaldadas por los hallazgos incluidos en el Informe WDR 2000/ 2001. No es posible decir más acerca de la contribución de la ayuda del Banco a la reducción de la pobreza en el mundo. La estrategia establecida en 1990, así como las directrices operativas basadas en ésta, no han conseguido generar un énfasis claro sobre la importancia de la evaluación y el seguimiento de los resultados. Llevar a cabo esta evaluación ha sido difícil a causa del gran vacío existente en la autoevaluación y en la evaluación independiente de los resultados sociales y de la reducción de la pobreza. Diseñar un marco, dotado de credibilidad, que permita medir los resultados de la ayuda del Banco a los países, así como contribuir a desarrollar la capacidad local de seguimiento del impacto de los programas de reducción de la pobreza, serán una prueba decisiva para la evolución de la estrategia del Banco frente a la pobreza. xxii ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AIDS - Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome ALMP - Arid Lands Resource Management Project (Kenya) ARDE - Annual Review of Development Effectiveness CAE - Country Assistance Evaluation CAR/CAN - Country Assistance Review/Note CAS - Country Assistance Strategy CDF - Comprehensive Development Framework CODE - Committee on Development Effectiveness CPIA - Country Performance and Institutional Assessment DAC - Development Assistance Committee DPIRP - Drought Preparedness, Intervention, and Recovery Project EAP - East Asia and the Pacific Region ECA - Europe and Central Asia Region EDRP - Emergency Drought Recovery Program ERL - Emergency Recovery Loan ESAF - Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility ESW - Economic and sector work EU - European Union GTZ - Gesellschaft fir Technische Zusammenarbeit HIV - Human Immunodeficiency Virus HNP - Health, nutrition, and population IBRD - International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank) ICR - Implementation Completion Report ID - Institutional development IDA - International Development Association IMF - International Monetary Fund LCR - Latin America and the Caribbean Region M&E - Monitoring and evaluation MNA - Middle East and North Africa Region MPU - Milk Producers' Unions NRF - National Renewal Fund (India) OD - Operational Directive OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OED - Operations Evaluation Department PA - Poverty Assessment PDP - Pastoral Development Project PER - Public Expenditure Review PPA - Participatory Poverty Assessment PPP - Purchasing power parity PREM - Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network PRSI - Poverty Reduction Strategy Initiative PRSP - Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PTI - Program of Targeted Interventions QAG - Quality Assurance Group RWS - Rural water supply SAL - Structural Adjustment Loan SAR - South Asia Region SIF - Social Investment Fund xxiii Poverty Reduction in the 1990s: An Evaluation of Strategy and Performance SME - Small and medium-size enterprise SPA - Special Program of Assistance for Africa SSA - Sub-Saharan Africa SSP - Sector Strategy Paper UNDP - United Nations Development Program WDR - World Development Report xxiV Introduction TI he approach paper for this evaluation was sent to the Committee on Development Effectiveness (CODE) of the Bank's Board of Directors in June 1998, when implemen- tation of the Strategic Compact was in full swing. Since then, two further major initiatives have been announced to improve the development effectiveness of the institution and the impact of development assistance on poverty in low-income countries. In his address to the Board on October 6, 1998, World Bank President James Wolfensohn outlined his vision for a Comprehensive Development Framework (CDF) to guide Background the efforts of the World Bank. Key elements of the CDF are In 1990, when the Bank prepared the World Develop- a holistic approach to development and a framework for ment Report 1990: Poverty, prospects for global poverty development assistance that is embedded in participation, reduction seemed bright. Projections for the 1990s partnership, and results orientation. In September 1999 showed buoyant growth for both industrialized and the Bank and the IMF proposed the adoption of an developing countries.' While the number of poor was enhanced framework for poverty reduction in low-income already estimated at countries: the Poverty Reduction Strategy Initiative over 1 billion, major Key elements of the CDF (PRSI), which was conceived as a way of relating declines were expected are a holistic approach development assistance more closely to national poverty in East and South reduction efforts. Alongside these initiatives, the Bank is Asia. Other regions to development and a also preparing the World Development Report 2 000/2001 were expected to see framework for on poverty, which will provide guidance for a new, modest reductions in development assistance forward-looking strategy to reduce global poverty. the numbers of poor, that is embedded in It is too early to evaluate these initiatives. Never- but steady improve- participation, theless, the rapidly evolving context has affected the ment in social indica- focus of this evaluation. The original aim was to assess tors. Where growth partnership, and results the Bank's progress in implementing the principles and was not going to be orientation. guidance embodied in the last World Development enough to offset the Report on poverty (1990). This is still its primary focus, effects of rapid population growth, as in Sub-Saharan but the evaluation also seeks to assess the relevance of Africa, adequate provision for the social sectors was the 1990 strategy in the light of changing global expected to result in rapid reductions in child mortality conditions and the Bank's move toward the principles and a reversal of the declines in primary school laid out in the CDF and the PRSI. enrollment experienced during the 1980s. While the 1 Poverty Redtict,on in ithe 1990s An Fvalu tion of Strategy and Performance hurdles to be overcome in reducing poverty were known to be formidable, the mood remained optimistic. Since 1990 the international economic environ- ment has faced some difficult challenges. Yet virtually everywhere, levels of infant mortality, adult illiteracy, and maternal mortality have declined. There have also been modest reductions in the The absolute proportion of people living on number of poor under $1 per day in developing countries. The absolute number has continued of poor, however, has continued to rise. to rise, mainly because of con- tinuing high population growth, but also because the economic growth that did take place over the decade was less than hoped for and unevenly distributed in many regions. The difficult economic and social transition in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which could not have been foreseen in 1990, also added large numbers of new poor to global poverty numbers. The AIDS pandemic has also taken a heavy toll. Nearly 30 million people worldwide are infected with HIV/AIDS, 90 percent of whom are in developing countries, and over two-thirds in Africa alone.2 Civil war and a succession of natural disasters, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, have also affected the pace of poverty reduction. With inadequate progress on poverty reduction in many regions, the development assistance community Low-cost housing area in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Photo courtesy is asking itself hard questions about how to work of National Geographic. together to improve the effectiveness of aid in the fight against poverty. The Bank's recent initiatives-the CDF fare directly and to enhance the ability of the and the PRSI-are a direct response to this call. The poor to take advantage of the opportunities of time is right to identify some of the main lessons and broadly based growth. experiences of the past decade and to assess how the * The strategy also called for a program of well- Bank's policy framework for poverty reduction has targeted transfers and safety nets to support those fared to date. living in remote and resource-poor regions or groups affected directly by economic transition. The Bank's Strategy While each element is important in its own right, The 1990 strategy stated that sustainable poverty the World Development Report (WDR) 1990 reduction could be achieved by a combination of the emphasized that the three, or "two-and-a-half," following: elements had to be seen as mutually reinforcing and part of a comprehensive approach to poverty * Broadly based growth to generate efficient in- reduction. come-earning opportunities for the poor based on policies that harness market incentives, social Based on the WDR, the Bank formalized its and political institutions, infrastructure, and strategy in the policy paper Assistance Strategies to technology. Reduce Poverty (1991) and Operational Directive (OD) * Improved access to education, nutrition, health 4.15, Poverty Reduction (1991). A Poverty Reduction care, and other social services to improve wel- Handbook was published in 1992 to provide opera- 2 I n t rod u c ti on tional staff with examples of good practice analytical ments of Bank performance at both the country and and operational work consistent with the principles of project level. Finally, it assesses the relevance of the OD 4.15. key elements of the 1990 strategy in light of new data From the outset, Bank guidelines emphasized the and shifts in the development assistance environment importance of aligning all Bank-supported operations over the decade. with the poverty reduction strategy. OD 4.15 also made The overarching questions for the evaluation are: it mandatory for the Bank to prepare country poverty assessments to provide the basis for designing Country * How well aligned are the instruments of Bank Assistance Strategies and identifying projects that both assistance with the elements of the 1990 strategy? realize high economic returns and contribute to sub- * Has the Bank linked the volume of its lending to stantial poverty reduction. Bank assistance was to be country efforts to reduce poverty? linked to an analysis of the factors determining pov- * How well have policies and projects performed erty, while the volume of lending was to be linked to a in meeting poverty reduction objectives? country's commitment and effort to reduce poverty. * How relevant is the 1990 strategy given data on Implementation of the strategy had to be addressed in poverty trends and more recent research on the context of the overall Country Assistance Strat- institutional and structural constraints to egy-including lending, economic and sector work, aid progress on poverty reduction? coordination, and policy dialogue-while country effort could be assessed in terms of government com- The evaluation is based on a thorough review of mitment and measured by the adequacy of the country the following data sources:' policy framework for poverty reduction. * Internationally comparable economic and social Structure of the Evaluation data and national-level poverty data and indica- Assessing the effectiveness of the Bank's poverty reduc- tors of country performance. tion strategy is a challenging task for several reasons. * Internal Bank reports, Country Assistance Strate- First, there is the problem of identifying which aspects gies, Implementation Completion Reports, lending of strategy implementation are the responsibility of the data, country assistance and thematic evaluations, Bank, as distinct from the preserves of borrowing and data from OED's project completion data governments or other development partners. There is base. also the added problem of accounting for exogenous * Qualitative data The focus is to factors that impact on strategy implementation. Sec- generated by focus assess implemen- ond, assessing relevance raises the question of the groups with staff counterfactual. What would have happened in the and representatives lation of the 1990 absence of the strategy? This is impossible to assess at of client countries, strategy in terms of the global level, and continues to be very difficult at the stakeholder surveys, the mainstreaming of country level. Finally, the lack of adequate monitoring and interviews with poverty concerns in and evaluation data relating to country strategy and other development Bank assistance the poverty impact of Bank lending operations makes it assistance partners. very difficult to assess the contribution of the strategy strategies. to policy change or poverty outcomes.4 The report is struc- Given these difficulties, the evaluation could not be tured to address the main evaluative questions in comprehensive. Its focus is to assess implementation of sequence, starting with the Bank's record on imple- the 1990 strategy in terms of the mainstreaming of menting the guidance of the 1990 strategy, and con- poverty concerns in Bank assistance strategies, lending cluding with a discussion of the relevance of the and nonlending work, and policy dialogue with bor- strategy and its connection to the WDR 2000/2001, the rowing countries. It maps these changes against assess- CDF, and the PRSI. 3 Putting the Bank's Strategy into Practice t he poverty reduction strategy set out in the WDR 1990 was developed against a back- ground of evolving ideas about poverty and in a rapidly changing global environment. The Evolving Paradigm countries experienced rapid industrialization and In the 1960s, the focus of debate among development export-led growth. While growth was accompanied by agencies was on growth strategies. The presumption a rise in inequality, it was sufficiently rapid to "lift all was that poverty was primarily a consequence of lack boats" and to sharply reduce levels of poverty. of income or lack of access to essential commodities. In These diametrically opposed experiences high- the 1970s, growing disillusionment with the trickle- lighted the importance of an outward-oriented strategy down effects of growth took hold. The Nairobi speech and sound macroeconomic policies for growth and the of Robert McNamara in 1973 signaled a shift in donor significance of investments in human resource develop- priorities away from overall economic growth, toward ment for decisive reductions in poverty. By the time the strategies designed to benefit the absolute poor. No- Bank prepared its 1990 WDR, the dominant view was tions of poverty expanded to include unmet basic that only by shifting needs, including food, health care, and education. The resources toward more Concerns about rising perceived need to deal simultaneously with poverty and efficient tradable, pro- economic growth led to the formation of a new strategy rural, labor-intensive inequality refocused in the Bank's 1974 publication, Redistribution with sectors would growth the policy debate on a Growth. This new strategy did not abandon growth as occur and the poor ben- possible relationship the primary objective, but raised concerns about the efit. Simultaneous in- between poverty and distribution of the benefits of growth and made the case vestments in human for a more concerted effort to secure the basic needs of resource development inequality. the poor and for systematic Bank investments in human would lead to produc- development. WDR 1980 placed a strong emphasis on tivity improvements and future enhancements in the the human development dimensions of poverty. social well-being of the poor. The late 1970s and early 1980s witnessed an unsuccessful experience with highly interventionist Broadening Concepts policies and large public spending, particularly in Since the preparation of the WDR 1990, the poverty Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. The oil crises agenda has broadened further. Concerns about rising in 1973 and 1979 had led to periods of unsustainable inequality in some regions, such as Latin America, borrowing, macroeconomic imbalances, and ulti- refocused the policy debate on a possible relationship mately to the debt crisis. At the same time, East Asian between poverty and inequality. Evidence of persistent 5 Poverty Reduction in the 1990s. An Evaluation of Strategy and Performance BOX 2.1. THE GENDER DIMENSIONS OF POVERTY f the 900 mil- undernourishment and crisis, or illness. These dis- interests of women, but lion illiterate poor health care among parities result from gen- to people's livelihood adults in the women are so great as to der-based inequalities in strategies as a whole. world, two-thirds are outweigh their biological households and are Research on gender, female. Although advantage in life expect- reinforced and supported growth, and poverty in women have made ancy. Some research sug- by gender biases outside Africa finds that persis- progress in recent years, gests that women are the household, such as in tent gender inequalities they continue to earn, on more vulnerable than men labor markets, credit are correlated with average, 50-80 percent to the effects of transient institutions, and legal sys- lower growth in much of what men earn. In poverty, whether as a tems. These disparities are of the region. some societies, levels of result of war, economic not just damaging to the Source: Blackden and Bhanu 1999. gender inequalities and a higher incidence of poverty tion and freedom, vulnerability, and insecurity. among women in some regions reignited worries about (Blackden and Bhanu 1999; Narayan-Parker 2000). a feminization of poverty (box 2.1). The transition in Eastern Europe and Central Asia pointed to different Exogenous Factors understandings of poverty and equity and emphasized Over the decade, globalization has expanded opportunity the importance of transforming existing safety net for some, while being increasingly linked to greater systems to meet the needs of the new poor and of the economic and financial volatility for others (Tanzi 1999). emerging market economy. By the end of the decade, Falling commodity prices and frequent episodes of con- recurring themes were that the poor are a diverse flict destabilized several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa group, that poverty and inequality are interrelated, and and disabled growth prospects in large parts of the that being poor implies not only material deprivation continent. A series of financial market or policy-induced but also varying degrees of isolation, lack of participa- crises in Latin America focused attention on the impor- BOX 2.2. OD 4.15-POVERTY REDUCTION D 4.15 Bank's assistance, the OD account short- and long- spread and implementa- emphasizes refers directly to the role term economic manage- tion capacity is weak, the assess- of Poverty Assessments ment and government broadly based growth ment of country poli- and Public Expenditure efforts to improve social and support for basic cies, public expendi- Reviews in helping to indicators and policies social services may be tures, and institutions as establish the agenda of and programs in the the most cost-effective a basis for the design of issues for policy dialogue social sectors, infrastruc- route to poverty reduc- Bank country assistance on poverty reduction. ture, food security, tion. In countries where programs to support Country circumstances labor market reform, and poverty is narrowly country efforts to reduce should shape the policy efficient employment gen- concentrated and poverty. While pointing dialogue on poverty eration. The composition implementation to the importance of all reduction, and the volume of lending should support capacity is good, tar- country and economic of lending should be country efforts to reduce geted programs can be and sector work in pro- linked to country efforts poverty. There are no sec- an important part of viding the analytic to reduce poverty. Coun- toral lending targets, but government efforts to foundation for the try effort takes into where poverty is wide- reduce poverty. 6 Putting the Bank's Strategy into Practice tance of well-targeted safety nets to protect the poor borrowers and as the Bank's operating environment during economic downturns and adjustment periods. The changed. Since then, the CAS has been prepared in 1997-99 financial crisis also meant that growth faltered consultation with government, and increasingly with or slowed, particularly in East Asia. While the impact of civil society.' Since August 1998, CASs have been the crisis on the poorest countries has been less severe than disclosed to the public. initially feared, the international economic environment Because CASs were not widely produced before became much more difficult and the pressures on vulner- 1992, and did not appear in their current format until able sections of the population increased. 1994, this review focuses on CASs prepared from FY94 onward. The sample included 42 CASs drawn from 20 Implementing the Strategy IDA and International In its recommendations to management, the policy paper Bank for Reconstruc- Assistance Strategies to Reduce Poverty (1991) showed tion and Development how to apply the WDR approach in an operational (IBRD) countries for operational document of context. OD 4.15 identifies the specific ways in which this the period FY94-98,' the Bank. It sets out the should happen through country economic and sector and a further sample goals and objectives of work, linkages to country strategy work, and the focus of of FY99 CASs to cap- Bank assistance. lending (box 2.2). This section takes these guidelines, ture the latest evolu- together with the policy priorities set out in the original tion in CAS docu- strategy, and assesses them in the context of the evolving ments. Linkages with relevant economic and sector Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) approaches and trends work were examined. All CASs were reviewed by a in Bank lending over the decade. team of OED evaluators, while a subsample was reviewed by two external advisers to verify the results.4 Country Assistance Strategies The CAS, first introduced in 1990, is the main Nonlending Work on Poverty operational document of the Bank. It sets out the goals Poverty Assessments and objectives of Bank assistance as they relate to The link between country information on poverty and government development objectives. In the beginning, its reflection in the CAS has steadily improved over the the CAS was exclusively a document for Board discus- decade. Around 90 percent of CASs for the FY97-99 sion of International Development Association (IDA) period referred directly to the poverty profile or related country programs. Over time this changed, both after analytical work, compared with 70 percent in FY94- the CAS was mainstreamed in 1992 to cover all 96. This trend is related to significant improvements in BOX 2.3. THE VALUE OF QUALITATIVE POVERTY RESEARCH The qualita- violence and insecurity medical centers by fami- poor themselves, tive research for poverty. Similarly, lies in the context of influencing specific undertaken the C8te d'Ivoire Poverty declining real incomes. areas of policy, such for the 1998 India Pov- Assessment (1997) draws In a study of the impact as the timing of erty Assessment high- on a qualitative study to of Participatory Poverty school fees in Zam- lights dimensions of identify dimensions of Assessments (PPAs) on bia, and strengthening well-being that are nor- poverty not captured in policy, Robb (1999) policy implementation mally absent from the statistical data, such found that PPAs were through building local income-based poverty as increased competition making an important capacity in participa- research, including the among uses of land and contribution by deepen- tory methods. value of social capital other natural resources ing our understanding of and the implications of and declining visits to poverty as defined by the Source: OED 1999a. 7 P'ove rty Reduction in the 1990s An Evaluation of Strategy and Performance identifyng non-income dimensions of poverty, the V OW methods used can be effective instruments for shaping policy dialogue with country partners (World Bank 2.' 1999b). Particularly successful examples of recent high-quality Poverty Assessments are Bangladesh (FY98), Bolivia (FY96), and Thailand (FY97), all of which show strong linkages to subsequent Country Assistance Strategies. Despite tangible change, OED's follow-up review - ~ cautions that improvements in the quality of Poverty f ~. Assessments are still modest overall, as well as vari- able across the Bank. Although qualitative and partici- patory work have entered the Bank's mainstream, the Chuldtbeakn stonouesy fortroadoreprineane, overall framing of Poverty Assessments is still based on drawing a poverty line defined in monetary terms. This, in turn, restricts the range of strategy recommen- the availability of national poverty data' and to dations. Dissemination of poverty data and the analy- gradual improvements in the quality of Bank poverty sis contained in Poverty Assessments has not always assessments. (OED 1999a). This, in turn, has been been adequate, and Bank efforts have not been focused reflected in the diagnostic treatment of poverty issues in sufficiently on supporting borrower capacity to utilize CASs.6 Stakeholders and Bank staff confirm that quantitative and qualitative poverty data.' Limited Poverty Assessments and the combined use of quantita- access to poverty data continues to be a problem in tive and qualitative techniques have done much to many countries, particularly in Africa and Latin strengthen the understanding of poverty and related America, although the Bank has been influential in policy issues (box 2.3). improving accessibility in South and East Asia. The importance of the quality of analytical work On the treatment of the Bank's poverty strategy itself, on poverty is confirmed by the finding that the the OED review found that nearly half the Poverty diagnostic treatment of poverty in the CAS is positively Assessments did not adequately address the individual and significantly correlated with the relevance of the elements of broad-based growth, social service provision, Bank assistance strategy and safety nets, nor did they justify the balance among The diagnostic overall. The quality of the these elements in strategy recommendations. OD 4.15 treatment of poverty Poverty Assessment is also states that the balance depends on the extent of poverty is linked to the influence it is (whether it is widespread or narrowly concentrated) and likely to have on country the implementation capacity of borrower institutions. Few positively and clients and stakeholders. In Poverty Assessments explore these issues systematically. significantly a survey of 81 stakeholders There is also a general lack of clarity on issues relating to correlated with the conducted for OED's Pov- targeting and safety nets in many assessments, with the erty Assessments: A Fol- exception of some of the most recent assessments in low-Up Review (OED Europe and Central Asia (ECA). Many assessments still Bank assistance 1999b), over 70 percent do not address global or macro linkages to poverty or strategy overall. responded that, in their discuss sectoral issues in detail, particularly the prominent view, the country Poverty role of food policy and rural development in contributing Assessment had a moderate-to-large impact on the to poverty reduction. In the survey of stakeholders, 30 design of the Bank's assistance strategy. Focus group percent of respondents felt that the treatment of rural sessions with Bank staff conducted in May 1999 also poverty issues in their assessment was unsatisfactory pointed to the contribution that Poverty Assessments (OED 1999b). OED's recent evaluation of the Bank's have made to broadening the conceptualization and implementation of the rural development sector strat- understanding of poverty. Recent evidence on Partici- egy-From Vision to Action-notes that effective rural patory Poverty Assessments (PPAs) suggests that beyond development work is closely correlated with the quality of 8 Putting the Bank's Strategy into Practice related analytical work, particularly the focus on rural gated data, although the more recent cohort does pay poverty (OED 1999g). The role of Poverty Assessments is greater attention to gender issues (OED gender evalua- critical in this regard. tion, forthcoming). The lack of a direct focus on poverty is most Public Expenditure Reviews obvious in PER recommendations. Of the large number Efficiency, equity, and accountability in public expen- of detailed recommendations made-on average, about ditures are also crucial in the fight against poverty. OD 100-24 percent related to the role of government, 16 4.15 states that, by focusing on intersectoral and percent to infrastructure, and 2 percent to direct intrasectoral tradeoffs, the efficiency and effectiveness poverty alleviation. Few PERs helped clients sort out of spending, and the cost-effectiveness of safety nets the strategic choices and targeted programs, Public Expenditure Reviews and tradeoffs inher- While the overall quality (PERs) contribute to the policy dialogue and the ent in expenditure assistance strategy. Based on the CAS review, however, reform, or how best only 15 of 42 CASs made direct reference to the to monitor perfor- poverty issues and the findings of PER work. This is partly because not all mance toward sec- distributional implications countries had a full PER available at the time of CAS toral or poverty of public expenditure preparation, but also because of the uneven treatment outcomes. The eval- of poverty-related issues in the PERs themselves. uation also found An OED impact evaluation of PERs looked at a that PERs frequently underrepresented. representative sample completed during FY94-98. It suffered from a lack found that while the overall quality of PERs is of timeliness and rarely consulted beyond the central improving, poverty issues and the distributional impli- government or other donors in their preparation and cations of public expenditure reform are frequently dissemination. There are some important exceptions underrepresented. Criteria for the assessment of the however, as in the PERs for Cambodia, Ethiopia, Peru, benefit incidence of public spending were found in only Russia, and Uganda (box 2.4). a few of the PERs reviewed, but findings were often not The relationship between nonlending work and the clearly linked to sectoral policy recommendations.' CAS points to a significant improvement in the cover- Once again, the rural sector received remarkably scant age and diagnosis of poverty issues. Yet the linkages attention. Few PERs contained any gender disaggre- are still uneven and, as in the case of PERs, the BOX 2.4. POVERTY AND THE PER IN CAMBODIA he PER for It estimated that with the in a revenue loss of Recommendations- Cambodia effective implementation more than 2 percent of later incorporated into (FY98) of the demobilization GDP in 1997 alone. The the Structural Adjust- reviewed public expen- program, defense expen- PER found that insuffi- ment Program--empha- ditures financed not ditures could be reduced cient resources were sized increasing outlays V only by the govern- from 3.3 percent of GDP being spent on the rural for the social sectors sub- ment, but also by in 1997 to 1.9 percent in sector (22 percent), stantially, targeting donors and nongovern- 2002, creating a sizable where the bulk of the health services for poorer mental organizations peace dividend to be population and the poor individuals and (NGOs). It concluded used for basic social live (88 percent), and underserved provinces, that outlays on defense services, that the bias toward and redirecting resources have crowded out gov- The PER also noted secondary and tertiary to primary facilities. ernment resources for that corruption had led services catered to the spending on poverty to unsustainable forest affluent segments of reduction activities. management, resulting society. 9 Poverty Reduction in the 1990s An Evaluation of Strategy and Performance strategic value of the analytical work has often not Growth been adequately exploited.'o A recent assessment by The 1990 strategy was clear in emphasizing that the the Quality Assurance Group (QAG) confirms that participation and contribution of the poor to growth important shortfalls requires policies that induce utilization of their most Few CASs actually make remain in the quality important asset-labor-and enhance their access to of economic and sec- markets, key productive inputs, and social services. explicit the meaning of tor work on poverty, The central focus of all CAS documents is growth. broad-based growth or which in turn impacts Nearly 80 percent of those reviewed identified broad- establish the links the poverty focus and based growth as critical to sustainable poverty reduc- between growth- content of country tion, although fewer than 10 percent made any explicit strategies adopted by reference to labor-intensive growth. oriented policies and the Bank." With Few CASs actually make explicit the meaning of poverty reduction within changes in the operat- broad-based growth or establish the links between the context of specific ing environment al- growth-oriented policies and poverty reduction within country conditions. ready under way with the context of specific country conditions. Employment the CDF and the PRSI, and labor force trends in the context of strategies to the Bank is under even remove tariff barriers and stimulate investment in greater pressure than in 1990 to improve the strategic tradable sectors, for example, receive modest to negli- value of its nonlending work, and to ensure its practical gible attention in most CASs. Structural and institu- relevance to country poverty strategies." tional barriers to the entry of the poor into formal markets are not widely addressed, except for some Poverty Strategy and the CAS attention to unemployment and labor market rigidities A central concern of the CAS is to set priorities among in transition economies. Only 20 percent of CASs relevant policy issues as a way of shaping Bank include an explicit treatment of microeconomic con- assistance and supporting country poverty reduction straints and equity issues that affect the poor's access to efforts. Based on the content analysis of CAS documents, physical assets and key markets, while few CASs this section examines the way in which the three planks directly address the relationship between persistent of the 1990 strategy-broad-based growth, social service gender inequalities and the strategy for broad-based provision, and safety nets-have influenced the policy growth. These issues all relate to obstacles that prevent framework for Bank assistance. the poor from directly and immediately benefiting from BOX 2.5. GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT IN AFRICA , he labor force trends in the productivity ficient to bring about cating resources in Sub-Saharan of labor and in the more employment and through changes in Africa is grow- income received by better wages for the relative prices is neces- ing exceptionally fast, working people. While majority of Africans. sary, but not sufficient, but rapid demographic macroeconomic policy Instead, the volume of to create jobs and growth combined with reform has managed to formal sector employ- improve wages. slow growth of invest- shift relative prices in ment has fallen sharply Instead, this requires ment has resulted in a favor of agriculture and and the share of the labor major improvements fall in the capital-labor to the tradable goods sec- force engaged in infor- in rates of private and ratio in most countries, tors, a recent ILO/UNDP mal sector jobs has public investment. This negative move- report indicates that the grown enormously. The ment is reflected in change has not been suf- conclusion is that reallo- Source: ILO/UNDP 1997. 10 Putting the Bank's Strategy into Practice BOX 2.6. APPROACHES TO BROAD-BASED GROWTH T he Malawi other assets (between the to social services (espe- growth, inequality, and Country Assis- poor and non-poor and cially HIV support), poverty and the impli- tance Strategy between women and adopt a more equal dis- cations for the growth (FY99) is set against men), the responsiveness tribution of land, and strategy. The Ecuador the formidable chal- of poverty measures to mobilize communities to Poverty Assessment lenge of persistently changes in average participate. (1996) clearly points to high levels of income incomes is comparatively Ecuador is also a land as a determining poverty, rapid popula- low. In response, the CAS country with a highly factor for rural pov- tion growth, skewed states that as well as skewed distribution of erty, arguing the need asset holding, and a measures to support an wealth. Despite periods for support for the slowing-down of struc- acceleration of growth, of unprecedented growth, existing informal mar- tural reforms. One of investments and policies poverty remains perva- ket in land and the the major issues identi- are needed to improve sive, especially in rural titling of the many fied in the CAS is the income distribution, areas. The FY96 CAS unregistered farms as a comparatively low including building recognizes the special way of moving toward growth-elasticity of numeracy and literacy challenges that this pre- more formal land poverty in Malawi. skills and access to credit sents and proposes a transactions. The CAS Analysis of house- and market information strategy that focuses on avoids the issue of land hold-level income dis- for microenterprises. In social sector reforms and distribution, focusing tribution data suggests addition, policies are the provision of basic instead on the role of that because of the needed to increase labor infrastructure. Neverthe- broad-based education depth of poverty and productivity, promote less, the CAS is limited and health in improv- inequalities in access to labor-intensive exports, in its assessment of the ing opportunities for land, education, and increase equity in access relationship between the rural poor. growth, and should therefore be part of the diagnostic priority on enhancing the poor's prospects for benefit- on the links between growth and poverty reduction. ing from growth and protecting those who are likely to Given the diversity of socioeconomic conditions lose out most in the short run.' The latest Malawi CAS and poverty profiles, and the emphasis on broad-based (see box 2.6) is one of the few to provide a simple but growth, the CAS review found surprisingly limited effective method for identifying short-term "winners" differentiation in the policy agenda across CASs, and "losers" in the context of specific policy initiatives although there are signs of growing diversity, particu- and to suggest their likely response to policy change. larly in the ECA countries.' Over 90 percent of CASs CAS policies targeted at key growth sectors, such recommend a strategy of macro-stability, liberaliza- as the private or financial services sector and the rural tion, and trade and tariff reform to support broad-based sector, also make surprisingly few links to the growth. The linkages or transmission mechanisms overarching goal of broad-based growth. Fewer than between this policy agenda and expected changes in the 50 percent of CASs recommend growth-enhancing conditions facing the poor are left largely unclear, actions such as reforming inequitable tax systems, however. The implicit assumption seems to be that removing constraints to the informal sector, and im- growth resulting from macroeconomic stability and proving the regulatory environment for small and improved resource allocation will automatically lead medium-size enterprises that would directly assist the to increased incomes and employment for the poor and poor. CASs fall short in the presumption that removing non-poor alike (box 2.5). In reality, the non-poor are macro and sectoral distortions alone will create em- likely to benefit earlier from growth than the poor. A ployment, whereas analytical evidence confirms that mix of policies must be identified that places the highest institutional and structural barriers severely inhibit the Povertv Reduction ir the 199o,: Ant Evaluation of Strategy and Performance employment (and income) prospects of the poor, par- between growth-enhancing policies and the short- and ticularly women. Explicit consideration of these issues, long-term prospects for poverty reduction. along with the removal of macro and sectoral distor- tions, would clearly enhance growth and accelerate its Social Services translation into reduced The second pillar of the 1990 strategy emphasizes CASs have focused poverty. This applies par- provision of basic social services to ensure that the poor forcefully on the ticularly to the rural sector, are in a position to participate in and contribute to new where the prospects for pov- growth opportunities. Almost without exception, CASs provision of basic erty reduction are greater, have focused forcefully on this element, supported by a social services. but such distortions and in- large volume of economic and sector work setting out stitutional rigidities are the linkages between investments in human capital and stronger, than in the urban sector. positive changes in labor productivity, and other key Clearly, the CAS needs to be selective. Not all the correlates of poverty. issues mentioned here will be relevant to country develop- The relationship between basic social services and ment goals, or the Bank's comparative advantage. Never- poverty reduction has become something of a given in theless, every CAS should include a clear rationale for the CAS documents; but as the recent literature shows, this selection and prioritization of policy areas and their link is far from automatic (Thomas and others, in press; relationship to the goal of broad-based growth (box 2.6). Filmer, Hammer, and Pritchett 1998). Few CASs go As the most recent CAS retrospective makes clear, CAS beyond the broad generalities of the 1990 strategy to documents need to do a better job in developing the links recommend policies focusing on specific institutional and BOX 2.7. DEFINING AND DESIGNING SAFETY NETS -he WDR 1990 the social costs of adjust- addition, safety nets can ses and more routine defines safety ment, particularly be combined with long- problems of transient nets in fairly through social funds and term programs that build poverty, idiosyncratic limited terms, distin- social action programs. human capital and trans- risk, and poor area guishing between the Over time, the definition fer assets to the poor. For development in normal provision of transfers- of safety nets has broad- example, public works years. A key advan- food price subsidies and ened considerably to programs can create tage of making a food stamps-for those include a wide range of growth-enhancing infra- safety net permanent is unable to participate in social assistance pro- structure. Third, publicly that it constrains the growth process, and grams and, particularly funded safety nets should political pressure to the provision of safety in the transition countries, not displace private increase transfers or nets-public employ- pension systems and labor transfers and traditional wage rates before elec- ment schemes-for market programs. mechanisms for alleviat- tions. It also creates those temporarily A cross-country ing distress. Rather, a basis for rapid endangered when review of safety net pro- wherever possible, pub- response built on pub- events take an unfavor- grams by Subbarao and licly funded safety nets lic action (which is able turn. The Poverty colleagues (1997) points should strengthen infor- held in reserve in good Reduction Handbook to a number of important mal and traditional years) from the bottom (World Bank 1993a) lessons in designing arrangements. up, rather than relying focuses mainly on the safety nets. First, safety Ravallion (1999) on potentially slow public expenditure nets designed to comple- argues that safety nets administrative discre- implications of target- ment growth must should become a perma- tion from the top ing and the role of include the poor in pro- nent institution, dealing down. safety nets in addressing ductive activities. In simultaneously with cri- 12 Putting the Bank's Strategy into Practice alleviation, particularly in the Central Asian republics, have forced a wider treatment of social safety nets than was originally conceived in WDR 1990. Only one out of five East Asia CASs reviewed had a focus on safety nets, 7 - despite coverage of safety net issues in accompanying Poverty Assessments. Since 1990 the Bank has developed significant capacity in the area of social protection. Yet despite this stock of knowledge and experience with rules for selecting and designing safety nets for different condi- tions (box 2.7), operational practice is lagging. A recent Bank study of social protection and social assistance within ECA finds a lack of clear prioritiza- Chechenian mother cooks on a make-shift stove. Grozny, assistance isus i large prioothe Russia. Photo courtesy of www.fotofinder.net tion of social assistance issues in large portions of the Bank's country assistance (Andrews and Ringold 1999). governance barriers to improved social service delivery The need to develop better concepts to address the (OED 1999f). The role of demand for social services, and overlapping issues of social assistance and social the complementary nature of investments necessary to protection in ECA is expected to be a major area of reduce gender biases and biases against the poor in social focus in the forthcoming Regional Social Protection service delivery, are given little space. More generally, Strategy Paper. CAS documents for the Kyrgyz Repub- policy recommendations tend to assume that expanding lic (FY98) and Armenia (FY98) reflect this new trend, the quantity of primary social services will be sufficient to stressing that pension reform is necessary in order to reach the poor, whereas evaluation evidence suggests that make the system of social assistance for the poor improving the quality of service and access to existing financially sustainable. facilities are equally important. Safety nets are still an afterthought in many CASs. This said, the Bank's policy stance on the delivery Where they are dis- of social sector services is evolving, including the cussed, there is a ten- The provision of safety unbundling of centralized management and provision dency to focus on in the social sectors and the recognition of the impor- problems faced by nets for the vulnerable tance of institutional development to improvement in groups affected by and the ultra-poor is service delivery. But the links with the needs of the poor public sector reform, covered in just over 50 are at times tenuous and assume that system changes rather than on the percent of CASs. will automatically trickle down to the poor. Once needs of the transitory again, CASs should include a clear rationale for the poor more generally, prioritization of policy choices in light of the and those least likely to be able to help themselves. In overarching goal-to enhance social well-being and cases where public sector reform issues are uppermost, reduce poverty. Institutional changes take a significant it is important that the CAS clarify what other areas of amount of time to occur, and CASs should be realistic action are needed to ensure that the poorest and those about what can be achieved, particularly for the poor. most vulnerable are protected from the short-term adverse effects of reform. Safety Nets One of the main weaknesses of CASs is the lack of The third element of the strategy, the provision of safety a clear distinction between the needs of the transitory nets for the vulnerable and the ultra-poo; is covered in and the chronically poor. Equally important, very few just over 50 percent of CASs. The ECA countries have the CASs address the likely economic impact of their own clearest and strongest focus on safety net issues. This is growth and public expenditure policies on the poor, or explained in part by the nature of these economies. The suggest ways to mitigate any possible negative effects. correlation between unemployment and poverty, espe- One way around this has been to concentrate strategy cially in the Eastern European countries, and the signifi- and investment on social funds. Nearly half of the CASs cant overlap between pension reform issues and poverty reviewed contained some reference to a social fund 13 Povertv Reduction in the 1990s: An Evaluation of Strategy and Performance initiative. While the value of social funds in channeling generalities of the initial 1990 strategy to recommenda- funds directly to communities is understood, early tions that are concrete and tailored to specific country evidence indicates that social funds are less than perfect contexts. In some instances, as in the case of the Bank's substitutes for well-designed safety nets that can re- rural development strategy, this has resulted in a vacuum spond quickly and effectively in times of crisis." between the language of the strategy and practical proposals for reform. Overall Assessment The 1999 CAS retrospective recognizes a lack of The above reservations notwithstanding, poverty con- political realism in the recommendations for policy cerns and the strategy for poverty reduction have reform and continued weaknesses in the monitorability entered the mainstream of the Bank's country assis- of CAS goals. Despite growing attention to poverty tance work. CAS documents show an increasing com- goals in CAS policy matrices, many documents still fail mitment to poverty reduction goals, supported by a to distinguish adequately between what is achievable growing stock of poverty data. The process of CAS as a direct result of Bank assistance and what is preparation has also moved toward greater consulta- achievable more generally. Fourteen of 42 CASs pro- tion with clients and stakeholder participation. Of vided concrete recommendations for monitoring pov- course, operationalization of the objectives of the erty trends. Almost all of these CASs were prepared poverty strategy still has after FY97. The shift to the CDF and the PRSI offers the Policy frameworks some way to go. opportunity to correct these weaknesses by placing the have taken a long The policy implica- borrower at the center of strategy formulation, empha- tions of broad-based sizing a results-based approach and mainstreaming a growth (as opposed to poverty focus throughout the country strategy. How the generalities of the growth per se) are still not CAS will evolve under this new framework is not yet initial 1990 strategy to sufficiently explicit in clear, but the findings here indicate that the CAS should recommendations most CAS documents, and develop more effective criteria for the prioritization the focus on safety nets and monitoring of policy choices in the context of a remains uneven. While the long-term focus on poverty reduction. tailored to specific diagnosis of poverty issues country contexts. has improved, there re- From Strategy to Lending mains a lack of prioritiza- The 1990 strategy distinguishes between investments tion of goals and objectives with respect to country that support the overall economic environment for situations. An analysis of the optimal balance or relative labor-intensive growth and those that seek to influence weight between the main elements of the poverty strategy, directly the asset position of the poor. OD 4.15 also relative to the scale of poverty and country implementa- states that the volume of lending to a country should be tion capacity, is often missing. The emphasis on diversity linked to that country's efforts to reduce poverty, while among the poor and on the multidimensional character of taking into account country-specific political, institu- poverty found in most Poverty Assessments is still only tional, and socioeconomic factors. This section reviews weakly reflected in policy recommendations. Policy the extent to which these priorities have been reflected frameworks have taken a long time to move from the in the Bank's own lending program. TABLE 2.1. THE LINK BETWEEN LENDING VOLUME AND COUNTRY EFFORT ,VED borrower 1LR0Polcy ?Total Bank performance -reaucratic quality racine lending($ OED borrower performnance 1.000 0.176- 0.086 0.1 37 ICRG bureaucratic quality I 000 0.143a 0.3303 Policy performance index 1.@-0.037 All lending ()1.000 Note: All correlations are Spearman's rho. ICRG: International Country Risk Guide. a. Significant at 5 percent. b. Significant at 10 percent. 14 Putting the Bank's Strategy into Practice FIGURE 2.1: WORLD BANK LENDING AND COUNTRY (poverty monitoring, targeted poverty programs, and POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORT safety nets) are used here." Figure 2.1 shows the relationship between the Average lending per country average score for poverty-related actions for FY96-98 ($ millions, by tercile) and average (IDA and IBRD) lending commitments for 600 FY1997-99.21 Commitments clearly favor countries with high scores on the poverty component of the CPR/ 500 CPIA, with the link increasing significantly in FY99.22 400 The results infer association and not causation, and the data do not allow a test for more than a few years. Nevertheless, the findings are consistent with the 200 Bank's stated intention to link lending volumes to 100 assessments of country poverty reduction efforts.23 That High there is still room for improvement is indicated by the 0 Medium specific country examples given in Chapter 3. FY97 Low CPIA/CPR FY98 FY99 poverty component The Changing Composition of Lending Implicit in the 1990 strategy is a pattern of lending that favors investments that support the overall economic environment for labor-intensive growth and seek to Linking Lending and Country Effort directly address the access of the poor to basic social Table 2.1 summarizes the results of a nonparametric services. These themes cut across a wide range of Bank exercise in which three proxies for country effort- sectors and subsectors. To build an overall picture of economic policy performance," bureaucratic quality, the anatomy of Bank lending during the 1990s, three and OED's own measure of borrower performance"- broad lending categories were created that aggregate are correlated with total Bank lending for 1990-95. the Bank's multiple efforts to support growth (category The results confirm that the volume of Bank lending A), to support specific growth and human develop- has been higher in countries showing stronger borrower ment-related sectors (category B), and to support the and institutional performance, although there is no provision of basic services, particularly for the poor clear relationship, in this exercise, between total Bank (category C). The categories are heuristic, and intended lending and macro policy performance. A recent study only as a way of by Collier and Dollar (1999), however, finds that when reflecting the broad Commitments clearly per capita income and population are controlled for, compositional shift of favor countries with high there is a clear positive correlation between IDA the Bank's aggregate lending and the quality of economic management, as portfolio.24 scores on the poverty measured by the Country Performance and Institutional Figure 2.2 sum- component of the CPR/ Assessment (CPIA) index." The strength of this correla- marizes the share of CPIA, with the link tion has also increased over the 1990s, suggesting that, total investment lend- . . for IDA at least, the allocation in favor of good-policy ing committed to in sgfct countries was stronger in 1998 than in 1990.'9 these categories over 99. Since achievement of good performance also requires time for IBRD and commitment to poverty reduction as a development goal, IDA countries.25 The shift toward lending for sectors an attempt is made to assess the linkage between total concerned with the provision of basic social and Bank lending and country performance in poverty-related infrastructural services (category C) is evident for both actions. This is done by looking at assessments of country types of lending, but the trend is most dramatic for "poverty performance" included in the annual CPIA. The IDA.26 Across the Regions a similar shift has taken overall CPIA index is used as a starting point for place, and particularly so in Regions receiving a determining IDA resource allocations. Only elements that substantial share of IDA resources, such as Africa. relate directly to borrower poverty reduction initiatives Underlying the aggregate shift in the focus of Bank 15 Po crt Redtic on in t the 1990s An EValuation of Strat gy and Pertormiance FIGURE 2.2. ANATOMY OF IDA AND IBRD INVESTMENT LENDING, 1980-99 Trends in investment lending (IDA) Trends in investment lending (IBRD/blend) Percent of all IDA investment lending Percent of all IBRD/blend investment lending 100 100 80 80- 60 60- 40 40- 20 20- 0 0 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 Year Year E Category A E Category B 0 Category C Note: Category A represents the Bank's multiple efforts to support growth; category B to support specific growth and human development-related sectors; and category C to support the provision of basic services, particularly for the poor. lending is a fourfold increase in lending during the average of 10 percent over the decade. Together these 1990s for the three main social sectors: education; sectors made up approximately 55 percent of Bank health, nutrition, and population (HNP); and social lending in the early 1980s. By the end of the 1990s, protection (figure 2.3). By 1995-99, lending to these their share had fallen to 23 percent.2' sectors reached 20 percent of total Bank lending, Other sectors that have continued to grow-but less compared with just 5 percent between 1980 and dramatically-also show signs of reorientation. In trans- 1984." Within these sectors, lending for specific sub- port, for example, although the focus on highways and sectors has also shifted. Lending to primary education, railways has been maintained in absolute terms, the share for example, increased by a factor of four in the early of lending committed to rural roads and urban transport 1990s, while the relative share of lending for higher increased significantly during the 1990s. In urban devel- education fell from 26 percent to 14 percent over the same period. The volume of lending for basic health FIGURE 2.3. A SHIFT IN FAVOR has continued to increase since the early 1980s, OF THE SOCIAL SECTORS increasing by a factor of 2 in the late 1990s. As a share of total HNP lending, basic health now accounts for Percent of total lending almost 60 percent. In social protection, commitments 10 - to the sector increased by a factor of four within the 1990s, with the share going specifically to social 8 -Education assistance (which includes social funds) reaching 20 percent in the late 1990s. 6 - supply/sanitation The analog of the rising trend in lending for the social sectors is a declining trend in lending to the more 4 traditional sectors such as agriculture, industry, and Health, nutrition, power (figure 2.4). Lending to agriculture declined by 2 - population 21 percent in the 1990s compared with the 1980s. Social protection Lending to industry declined by over 60 percent, 0 0oa t i dropping to just 2 percent of the total portfolio in FY99. 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 Lending for power and oil and gas also declined by an Year 16 Putting ite Bank's Strategy into Practice FIGURE 2.4. A SHIFT AWAY FROM THE In other sectors, too, where the volume of lending has TRADITIONAL SECTORS increased significantly, concerns about the quality of Percent of total lending lending have emerged. In HNP, for example, a recent 30 OED study finds that "not only do we know relatively little about what the Bank has 'bought' with its invest- 25 -ments, but when progress toward objectives is not measured, they are less likely to be achieved" (OED 20 -Electric power