Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program Annual Report 2019 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program ANNUAL REPORT 2019 © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: Mauritania—©  James Martone/World Bank. Photos, figure 4.2, from left: © World Bank, © World Bank, © Andrea Borgarello/ World Bank; © Pablo Tosco/Oxfam; © Dominic Chavez/World Bank; © Dominic Chavez/World Bank Cover design, layout, and editing: Nita Congress Contents Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv Chapter 1: Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Chapter 2: Overview and achievements to date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Chapter 3: Roadmap to 2025: SASPP priorities and a new framework . . . . . . . 11 Chapter 4: Progress in FY 2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Chapter 5: Plans for FY 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Chapter 6: The SASPP results framework and targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Chapter 7: Financial report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Appendix A: Results framework and monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Appendix B: Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Appendix C: Conceptual framework for adaptive social protection . . . . . . . . . 69 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 iii Abbreviations AFD Agence Française de Développement ASP adaptive social protection BMZ German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development DFID Department for International Development DGPSN General Delegation for Social Protection and National Solidarity (Délégation Générale à la Protection Sociale et à la Solidarité Nationale) DN National Framework for the Prevention and Management of Food Crisis (Dispositif National de Prévention et de Gestion des Crises Alimentaires) ECHO European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations FY fiscal year IDA International Development Association ISPA Inter-Agency Social Protection MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund M&E monitoring and evaluation MOU memorandum of understanding NGO nongovernmental organization PNBSF National Program of Family Security Transfers (Programme National de Bourses de Sécurité Familiale) SASPP Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program UN United Nations UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund USR unified social registry WASH water, sanitation, and hygiene WFP World Food Programme All dollar amounts are U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated. iv 1 Introduction Countries in the Sahel region rank among the poorest in the world. Based on a poverty line of $1.90 per day, poverty rates are 49.7 percent in Mali, 44.5 percent in Niger, 43.7 percent in Burkina Faso, 38.4 percent in Chad, 38.0 percent in Senegal, and 6.0 percent in Mauritania (figure 1.1). All six countries have low rankings on the Human Capital Index, ranking among the lowest 40 of 157 countries.1 The countries in the Sahel region are also among the world’s most vulnerable to climate change (Climate Centre 2018). While it is projected that rainfall will remain relatively constant on average, the region’s climate will become more extreme, with more severe rains and drought (UN OCHA 2016). The Sahel is facing a growing risk of covariate Figure 1.1  Poverty headcount ratios for Sahelian shocks, such as recurrent droughts and countries, latest year conflicts, which jeopardize the lives and Percent of population livelihoods of households. The number of people $1.90 a day $3.20 a day 80 in the Sahel affected by drought has increased over time (figure 1.2); moreover, climate shocks like 60 drought are exacerbated by a growing context of fragility and conflict (figure 1.3). In combination, 40 these shocks are triggering displacement, forcing many households to abandon their assets and 20 livelihoods. 0 Disasters can lead to and worsen food Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Senegal (2014) (2011) (2009) (2014) (2014) (2011) insecurity. Often, households are unable to recover assets lost during a shock, reducing their Source: World Development Indicators, https://datacatalog.world- bank.org/dataset/world-development-indicators. resilience to the following shock and placing them Note: Ratios are calculated using 2011 purchasing parity power–ad- at risk of chronic poverty. Asset depletion and justed dollars. 1 Senegal is ranked 121 out of 157, Burkina Faso 144, Mauritania 150, Mali 154, Niger 155, and Chad 157. Source: World Bank Human Capital Index; https://www.worldbank.org/en/ publication/human-capital. 1 2 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 Figure 1.2  Number of people affected by drought erosion can affect assets that uphold livelihoods, in the six Sahel countries such as livestock, as well as human capital, as Millions shocks can lead households to pull children out 12 of school, thereby reducing their prospects in the long term (Climate Centre 2018). Insufficient 10 food intake and recurrent infections during the first 1,000 days of a child’s life can lead to 8 stunting, which is largely irreversible and can 6 cause negative long-term impacts.2 In the Sahel region, stunting rates range between 17 percent 4 of children under age five in Senegal (2017), to 42 percent in Niger (2017) and about 40 percent 2 in Chad (2016).3 0 The Sahel Adaptive Social Protection 1988 1990 1991 1993 1995 1997 1998 2001 2002 2005 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2017 2018 Program (SASPP) supports the development Source: EMDAT database (https://www.emdat.be/ ), accessed July 17, of adaptive social protection (ASP) programs 2019. and systems across six countries in the Sahel region: Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. The SASPP was initiated in 2014 and is supported by donor contributions from the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID), the Agence Française de Développement (AFD), and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). Following additional donor contributions from the AFD and the BMZ, the program has been extended to fiscal year (FY) 2025 and is now entering its second five-year phase. This report covers World Bank FY 2019, from July 1, 2018, to June 30, 2019. ASP builds household resilience to covariate shocks.4 ASP programs are designed to build the resilience of vulnerable households before, during, and after the occurrence of covariate shocks. To do so, ASP represents an integrated approach to resilience building that promotes increased coordination among the social protection, disaster risk management, and climate change adaptation 2 Source: World Health Organization and 1,000 Days, “Stunting Infographic,” https:// thousanddays.org/wp-content/uploads/Stunting-Web-1.jpg. 3 World Development Indicators, https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/world- development-indicators. 4 Shocks to households may be either idiosyncratic or covariate. Idiosyncratic shocks affect individual households and include, for instance, illness, injury, loss of a family member and job loss. By contrast, covariate shocks affect multiple households at once, negatively affecting household welfare. Covariate shocks include, for instance, natural disasters, economic or financial crises, conflicts, forced displacement, and pandemics. Chapter 1  Introduction 3 Figure 1.3  Number of internally displaced persons and refugees in the Sahel over time Number 1,200,000 Northern Mali conflict 1,000,000 Internally Boko Haram displaced 800,000 insurgency Nigeria 600,000 Beginning of war in Darfur 400,000 Mauritania-Senegal border war 200,000 Refugees 0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), http://popstats.unhcr.org/en/persons_of_concern. communities. In doing so, ASP supports a movement away from reliance on short- term emergency response programs and toward the development of longer-term ASP programs that invest in the capacity of households to cope with and adapt to these kinds of shocks. This report is structured as follows. Chapter 2 provides an overview of the SASPP and summarizes the program’s achievements since its inception. Chapter 3 identifies priorities going forward and introduces a new conceptual and strategic framework for the second phase of SASPP. Chapter 4 presents an overview of country-level and regional activities in FY 2019, as well as additional research supported by the SASPP during FY 2019. Chapter 5 sets out priorities for FY 2020 within countries and at the regional level. Chapter 6 summarizes the SASPP results framework and progress made on the results indicators. Chapter 7 contains a financial report for the SASPP. 2 Overview and achievements to date 2.1  How does the program work? The SASPP supports building systems, policies, and programs to boost the resilience of vulnerable households to covariate shocks and mitigate the impacts of shocks on household welfare when they occur. The objective of the program is to increase the access of poor and vulnerable households to ASP programs across the Sahel region so as to strengthen households’ ability to anticipate, absorb, and recover from shocks. Since its launch in 2014, the SASPP has been instrumental in enabling access for poor and vulnerable people in the Sahel to social safety nets in general and adaptive and shock-responsive social protection in particular. Governments in all six Sahel countries have put in place national safety net systems that are providing support to poor and vulnerable households. The first phase of the SASPP was focused on supporting the establishment of social safety net systems with adaptive features and building ownership around these programs. As part of that, the program laid operational foundations to pilot shock-response features, expand the dialogue on early warning systems, and create greater buy-in of ASP with the government and partners. The SASPP has started generating a robust evidence base to inform the design of national safety net programs with ASP elements; in addition, the SASPP has made significant efforts to promote learning and knowledge sharing across the region. During the second phase of the SASPP, these nascent ASP systems need to be further strengthened, refined, and expanded. The second phase of the SASPP will build on the foundations that were put in place in the first phase. Evidence and learning from pilots built in the first phase will inform the design and expansion of programs, in addition to new knowledge activities. The SASPP will continue to provide technical assistance and support to government while further leveraging International Development Association (IDA) and other resources toward a common shared goal. In line with this, the second phase will be underpinned and guided by 4 Chapter 2  Overview and achievements to date 5 a newly developed conceptual and strategic framework of five ASP building blocks. This framework outlines the key elements necessary to ensure adaptive systems are further built and strengthened. To that end, it allows for strategic deployment of funds—which in turn will allow for nascent systems to mature. The framework is detailed in section 3.2 and appendix C. The SASPP supports the development of ASP systems in the Sahel region by complementing and leveraging IDA-financed projects. In practical terms, the SASPP has been providing (1) direct support to government-led programs; (2)  knowledge activities, technical assistance, and capacity building; and (3)  regional activities and strategic staff deployment. Through the provision of direct support to government-led programs, the SASPP complements and leverages IDA-financed projects in the Sahel region. The IDA portfolio of social safety net systems across the region totals $325 million (table 2.1). The IDA-supported projects create social protection systems that provide the basis for the adaptive components supported by the SASPP. ●● Through direct support to government-led programs (recipient executed), SASPP financing helped lay the groundwork for building poverty and vulnerability–focused social protection systems and pilot ASP instruments. Recipient-executed activities enable innovative ASP pilots that seek to strengthen the resilience of households and scale up social protection programs in response to shocks. These activities generate evidence on what works well and the scope for further improvements—which in turn enables the strengthening of ASP systems going forward, based on lessons learned and good practices. ●● Complementing recipient-executed activities, the program supports World Bank–executed knowledge activities in the form of technical Table 2.1  SASPP and IDA-funded projects in the Sahel Resource allocation (million $) SASPP Country Project IDA (as of FY 2019) Government Total Burkina Faso Social Safety Net Project 50.00 6.00 0.00 56.00 Chad Projet Pilote de Filets Sociaux 5.00 5.00 0.00 10.00 Mali Emergency Safety Nets Project 122.00 13.45 1.00 136.45 Mauritania Mauritania Social Safety Net System 15.00 6.30 10.00 31.30 Niger Niger Safety Net Project 92.50 8.50 0.00 101.00 Senegal Senegal Safety Net Operation 40.50 11.05 0.00 51.55 Total 325.00 50.30 11.00 386.30 6 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 assistance and capacity building to strengthen program design and implementation as well as policy dialogue. Because the programs and systems in the Sahel region are at an early stage of development, significant technical assistance and capacity building are required to support program design and implementation. The close dialogue between country teams and government counterparts enables not only capacity building and tailoring of programs to specific country contexts, but also the innovation and experimentation needed to develop programs’ adaptive features. ●● At the regional level, the SASPP supports knowledge sharing, learning, and coordination between countries. Analytical work supports either specific country engagements or research at the regional level that is applicable across countries. Research is structured around core thematic areas, as detailed in section 4.2. Knowledge sharing and learning include the organization of regional events and workshops that serve as forums for exchange, learning, and coordination, enabling government counterparts and development partners to share experiences and lessons learned. These facilitate the strengthening of programs going forward. 2.2  What has been achieved so far? The first five years of implementation Social safety nets in the Sahel have come a long way since 2014, and the SASPP has been an important vehicle for supporting knowledge and innovation on safety nets in general and ASP in particular. Given the effectiveness of the Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF), the World Bank team conducted vulnerability assessments in each of the Sahel countries and provided technical assistance to the governments in preparing recipient-executed country programs. Recipient-executed activities came into effect between 2015 and 2016. Bank- executed activities helped advance knowledge creation and experience sharing. Governments in the Sahel are increasingly relying on social safety nets. Across the region, except in Niger which started a little earlier, social safety net programs were only just being introduced in 2013–14. Since then, Sahelian governments have been putting new programs and features into law and policy. For example, in Mali, a decree outlining the organization and function of the social registry was drafted, and a common questionnaire has been used by government and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) across their programs. In Chad, the government institutionalized the use of a harmonized questionnaire for the social registry through a government decree and is fully funding a newly created unified social registry (USR) unit—an outcome of the SASPP-financed technical support Chapter 2  Overview and achievements to date 7 work.1 Additionally, some governments provide cofinancing to IDA-financed operations, indicating their ownership of the social protection agenda. For instance, in Senegal, the government provides 85  percent of the funds for the National Program of Family Security Transfers Programme (National de Bourses de Sécurité Familiale, PNBSF) conditional cash transfer program, with the remainder covered by an IDA grant. The government of Burkina Faso has allocated $5.3 million from its own budget to support development of a safety net system. In Mauritania, the government contributes $10  million in support of the social safety net system project; while in Mali, the government is contributing $1 million toward the Mali Emergency Safety Nets Project Jigisemejiri. The following summarizes the key achievements of the SASPP to date. SOCIAL PROTECTION FOUNDATIONS Since its inception, the SASPP has supported the establishment of the basic elements of social safety nets. Key achievements include the development of USRs (table 2.2), with an increasing number of households covered. In Mauritania, the social registry is available for any governmental or nongovernmental agency to identify poor and vulnerable households, as well as to create their own list of beneficiaries using a tailored set of socioeconomic indicators. In Niger, Table 2.2  USR status/household registration several institutions have agreed to share their data with the USR once data sharing protocols Country Status/number of households registered are defined. In Senegal, humanitarian and United Burkina Faso 134,168 Nations (UN) actors successfully and efficiently Chad USR launched March 2019 used the USR to target beneficiaries for food- Mali USR to be launched end 2019: 350,000 security response. As of FY 2019, nearly 2 million Mauritania 138,635 people across the Sahel have benefited from the Niger Set-up of USR completed 2019 nascent social protection systems and programs Senegal 531,000 put in place with SASPP support, either by being included in registries, or as recipients of cash transfers or beneficiaries of other interventions. The SASPP provided 92,000 households (628,000 individuals) with access to adaptive cash transfers or cash for work interventions (figure 2.1). Moreover, a total of 598,920 of those beneficiaries received accompanying measures alongside their cash transfers with the aim of enhancing human capital in the Sahel. 1  Throughout this report, “USR” is used to signify each country’s social registry, rather than particularizing the term (e.g., Mali’s Registre Social Unifie or Senegal’s Registre National Unique). 8 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 Figure 2.1  Beneficiaries of SASPP support a. People benefiting from ASP programs b. Households receiving cash through cash-based interventions Number (millions) Number 2.5 Total 100,000 2.0 80,000 Public works 1.5 60,000 1.0 40,000 Cash transfers 0.5 20,000 0 0 Baseline FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Baseline FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 PRODUCTIVE INCLUSION Since 2017, the SASPP has supported implementation of comprehensive and adapted productive inclusion programs that aim to build resilience among beneficiaries by diversifying their income. All countries have productive inclusion programs, with a total of 59,638 beneficiaries after two years of implementation (figure 2.2). The productive inclusion projects usually involve some mix of coaching and facilitation; community sensitization on aspirations and social norms; facilitation of savings groups; microentrepreneurship training; behavioral skills training; and a one-time lump-sum cash grant to assist individuals in initiating their Figure 2.2  Number of direct beneficiaries income-generating activities, savings groups, life- benefiting from pilot productive inclusion and income-generating activities programs skills training, post-training coaching, etc. These programs will yield results as part of an impact 11,900 59,638 evaluation on the effectiveness of accompanying 16,697 measures to promote productive inclusion and resilience in the Sahel. The results will inform 10,000 1,650 not only the impact of economic inclusion on 17,891 1,500 resilience but also how to roll out a large-scale productive safety net in the Sahel. Most countries are providing accompanying measures alongside Burkina Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Senegal Total cash transfers, tackling—among others—family Faso planning, child nutrition, and well-being. To further enhance learning and intervention, the SASPP is supporting a multicountry impact evaluation, the findings of which will have country, regional, and global implications for the design and scale-up of productive inclusion interventions and their use in building resilience. Chapter 2  Overview and achievements to date 9 Direct support to national governments is central to the SASPP. Program activities directly leverage and complement a large IDA portfolio in each of the six countries that is supporting the development of national social safety net programs and systems. The current total IDA portfolio for social safety net projects across the six SASPP countries is approximately $325 million (table 2.1). The significant investment being made through these IDA projects has been instrumental in creating the foundational social protection systems and programs upon which the SASPP adaptive components are being built. An estimated $227 million in additional IDA financing for these projects is anticipated by FY 2020. ADAPTIVE SHOCK RESPONSE All countries are piloting design features that further build the ability of social protection Figure 2.3  Households who benefited from shock- systems and programs to respond to responsive cash transfer shocks. All six countries have piloted emergency 8,200 42,674 responses building on existing social safety net 4,691 systems. SASPP-funded shock-response cash 3,800 transfers reached 42,674 households (or 242,696 17,713 total beneficiaries) by June 2019 (figure 2.3). The country engagements are supporting the continued institutionalization and improvement of shock-responsive social protection in each of 6,870 1,400 the countries. Notably, Mauritania and Niger are piloting innovative models using satellite imagery Burkina Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Senegal Total Faso and new approaches to modeling food insecurity to improve the prediction of drought in order to trigger shock-responsive social protection. In Senegal, the SASPP is working to strengthen the early warning system and has thus far undertaken an analysis identifying the relevant indicators and triggers for an early warning system. INSTITUTIONAL SET-UP AND BUY-IN Since the program’s inception, the World Bank has been promoting greater coordination within and across countries to improve the institutional arrangements critical to program success. In Mali, Mauritania, and Niger the World Bank has signed or is in the process of preparing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the World Food Programme (WFP). In Burkina Faso, a working committee to enhance cooperation has been set up to better develop a harmonized questionnaire for data collection. With SASPP support, the government of Niger has made notable progress in strengthening its National Framework for the Prevention and Management of Food Crisis (Dispositif National de Prévention et 10 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 de Gestion des Crises Alimentaires, or DN) to better coordinate and manage ASP programs. In 2017, the DN went through its latest reorganization to incorporate the Safety Net Unit, which is an important step toward achieving sustainability of the adaptive safety net system. In Senegal, the World Bank has promoted the concept of ASP and succeeded in including it in the agenda of the Donor Social Protection Group to foster donor coordination and a common approach to ASP resilience building and shock response. The European Union, Action Contre la Faim, UNICEF, and the WFP, along with Spanish and Italian cooperation through the General Delegation for Social Protection and National Solidarity (Délégation Générale à la Protection Sociale et à la Solidarité Nationale, DGPSN) are active members of this group. In Mauritania, following several workshops jointly supported by the WFP and the World Bank, the government adopted a consensus roadmap in 2019 to design and institutionalize a system and tools to respond to food-insecurity shocks. This dialogue includes the main actors involved in shock response in Mauritania, at the governmental (four sectoral ministries and institutions) and nongovernmental (UN agencies, donors, and NGOs) levels. The SASPP has enabled frequent exchanges between countries in the region to enable mutual learning and experience sharing. For instance, in April 2019, a study tour for the Mauritanian government was organized in Senegal and Niger. The objective of the study tour was to learn and exchange information on the institutional set-up and modalities to respond to shocks that affect a vulnerable household’s well-being. The Chadian and Mauritanian governments collaborated in building their country information systems through knowledge and information sharing. For example, Chad’s government has adapted Mauritania’s management information system to build its USR. The SASPP has led to significant knowledge development and research that has underpinned much programmatic work. To date, the SASPP has contributed to the publication of a total of 58 evaluations, analyses, policy notes, and studies, with nearly as many pieces of analytical work ongoing. Significant work on targeting has been undertaken, with studies in Burkina Faso and Senegal looking into various targeting methodologies, and a study in Niger examining the efficiency of commonly used methods in identifying households suffering from permanent or seasonal deprivation. Analytical work in Chad has focused on understanding vulnerability with a qualitative assessment of the social dynamics of poverty and vulnerability. Analytical work on financing has focused on disaster risk financing (Mauritania), public expenditure reviews (Mali, Niger, and Senegal), and the effectiveness of ASP spending (Burkina Faso). Across the board, work has begun on deepening understanding of appropriate early warning systems in the countries; these have been accompanied by pilot projects. 3 Roadmap to 2025: SASPP priorities and a new framework 3.1  Priorities going forward Since its inception, the SASPP has focused on putting in place foundations for social protection programs and systems and adaptive approaches for building resilience and shock response. Five years into implementation, the six countries of the Sahel are scaling up their social protection programs to cover additional regions and households—and are incorporating elements of adaptive approaches for resilience and response into the design of their programs. The SASPP is entering a new phase with a strategic objective of further strengthening ASP systems in the Sahel. Additional donor contributions enable the extension and expansion of the program to 2025. In FY 2018, the AFD contributed an additional €6 million (about $7 million), while the BMZ contributed an additional €50 million (about $56 million) in FY 2019. These contributions will allow the program to deepen, sustain, and further build on the foundations laid in its first phase. With this sustained support, countries can advance in strengthening their ASP systems. Sustained investment in strengthening the knowledge base for ASP remains a priority under phase 2. Taking stock of four years of implementation, the SASPP is seizing the opportunity to refocus, strengthen, and expand the program’s knowledge base. Based on consultation with the SASPP country teams and donor partners, the analytic agenda is being refocused around several core thematic areas to bring greater coherence and emphasis to issues that reflect the most pressing needs of the country teams and their government counterparts: analysis of poverty, vulnerability, and resilience; sustainable national social protection delivery systems; shock-responsive safety nets; refugees and forced displacement; productive inclusion, livelihoods, and resilience; and foundations of human capital. The six thematic areas are discussed in further detail in section 4.2. 11 12 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 3.2  A conceptual framework for ASP and the SASPP Phase 2 of the SASPP will be underpinned by a conceptual and strategic framework organized around five building blocks of ASP, which will guide efforts to further strengthen and develop ASP systems across the Sahel. In 2019, the World Bank and the SASPP donor partners worked together to develop a new conceptual and strategic framework for ASP to guide SASPP activities under phase 2 that is aligned with the Bank’s global framework for ASP (World Bank 2019). Five building blocks for ASP were identified with features that differ from regular social protection programs: government leadership; institutional arrangements; data and information; programs and their delivery systems; and finance (figure 3.1). These can be described as follows: ●● Government leadership. Government leadership and ownership of the ASP agenda is a prerequisite to the development of ASP. This includes, for instance, the identification of ASP in sectoral strategies, policies, and plans; financial commitments to ASP; and the development of mechanisms to hold government accountable for policy and financial commitments. ●● Institutional arrangements. ASP requires a high degree of coordination among the multiple agencies involved, as well as capacity at all levels of government. ASP may require the formation of new institutions or institutional reform in order to oversee, coordinate, and/or deliver ASP. Partnerships with nongovernment actors are critical in most cases for building household resilience and responding to shocks. ●● Data and information. New information and analyses are required to better understand risk and vulnerability as a basis for program design and implementation. This includes the development of an evidence base on the effectiveness of ASP-related interventions to continue to guide future implementation. ●● Programs and their delivery systems. Based on an understanding of risk and vulnerability, safety net programs must be designed and prepared to be able to meet household needs, building household resilience before a shock and protecting well-being after a shock. ●● Finance. Resilience building requires long-term, sustainable financing commitments to support such initiatives. For response, finance must be disbursed quickly through responsive programs to be delivered in a timely manner Chapter 3  Roadmap to 2025: SASPP priorities and a new framework 13 Figure 3.1  Building blocks of ASP to beneficiaries; this can be achieved through preplanning and prepositioning of the resources that are linked to responsive programs. Across the building blocks, systems will be classified along a spectrum from nascent to established. Along with the building blocks, a new way to monitor progress Figure 3.2  ASP strengthening and development: in countries as well as program activities will be leapfrogging rigidity developed, based on the concept of nascent, Social protection emerging, and established systems. This system maturity spectrum will allow the SASPP to better target and tailor its support, pushing further in areas Established that can unlock a country’s progress or transition it from nascent to emerging and—potentially— established. In contexts of nascent social Emerging protection systems, there may exist opportunities to “leapfrog” more advanced systems in countries Nascent that are constrained by rigidities that restrict their Adaptive resilience ability to implement ASP (figure 3.2). response capability 14 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 The conceptual framework will serve to guide the SASPP going forward. Appendix C contains a table that expands on the framework, identifying for each building block the principles, fundamentals, and deltas that pertain to it. The SASPP conceptual framework will be used as a lens to identify progress made in developing ASP systems across the Sahel region, and enable the identification of gaps that remain to be filled. The framework will be used to articulate the new five-year plans—and by extension, reporting going forward, including future annual reports. 4 Progress in FY 2019 4.1  Country program activities During the fourth year of the SASPP, implementation of recipient-executed activities was strengthened, and activities are evolving in all six countries. Bank- executed activities resulted in a wide variety of analytical products and the launch of new ones. FY 2019 has also seen an increase in coordination and collaboration with development partners and humanitarian agencies This section summarizes progress made in FY 2019 by each country.1 BURKINA FASO In Burkina Faso, poverty and vulnerability are exacerbated by high exposure to disasters and limited natural resources, leading to elevated needs for assistance among the Burkinabé. While significant progress was made on poverty reduction in the past 15 years,2 around 40 percent of the population were poor in 2014, and 80 percent live on less than $3 per day (World Bank 2018a). Eighty percent of the workforce is employed in agricultural jobs (World Bank 2017a). Around 61 percent of the population is at risk of multiple hazards, and the country is affected by chronic droughts, floods, flash floods, and outbreaks of disease (World Bank 2018b). Human capital outcomes are low, and Burkina Faso ranks 144 out of 157 countries on the Human Capital Index. A child born in Burkina Faso today is expected to be 37 percent as productive as they could be if they enjoyed full education and health. Data sources used throughout this chapter, in addition to those specifically cited, are 1  the World Bank’s Human Capital Index: Country Briefs and Data, https://www.worldbank. org/en/publication/human-capital; and World Development Indicators https://datacatalog. worldbank.org/dataset/world-development-indicators. 2 The poverty rate fell from 53.0 percent in 2003 to 40.3 percent in 2014. 15 16 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 The SASPP is supporting Burkina Faso in putting in place the building blocks of an adaptive safety net system that assists households in better managing covariate shocks. In addition to regular cash transfers reaching 518,842 beneficiaries, the Social Safety Net Project includes adaptive components that build resilience to covariate shocks and enable the response to shocks through the safety net (table 4.1). In particular, the project is testing productive inclusion activities in four provinces to strengthen household resilience and the economic activities of poor households. The project also includes a shock-response modality which is being implemented in the Boulkiemdé Province in the Central West region. Accompanying measures, which cover 83 percent of beneficiaries, seek to strengthen health, education, and nutrition outcomes. Additional financing for the project was approved by the World Bank Board of Directors in May 2019 and will extend adaptive cash transfers to 42,500 beneficiaries. Recipient-executed activities In FY 2019, the Social Safety Net Project continued to expand its coverage in terms of both number of beneficiaries and geographic range. Including regular and shock-responsive cash transfers, the project currently reaches 69,755 households, 101,666 designated recipients and, through them, 553,195 individuals in the North, East, Central East and Central West regions. Over the reporting period, the project enrolled an additional 20,000 beneficiaries in the country’s volatile Sahel region. The additional financing will allow the project to be expanded to 75,000 beneficiaries of regular cash transfers and 42,500 beneficiaries of adaptive cash transfers. The project implements adaptive components that strengthen resilience and enable response to shocks. To strengthen resilience, the project is Table 4.1  Burkina Faso SASPP budget and outputs at a glance Name Social Safety Net Project Total budget $156 million (IDA: $150 million, SASPP: $6 million); government contribution: $1.5 million • Cash transfers: 69,755 households (518,842 beneficiaries) • Public works: Not applicable Number of • Productive inclusion (income-generating activities): 17,891 beneficiaries beneficiaries • Shock response: 34,353 beneficiaries • Accompanying measures: 83,000 households • Cash transfers: CFAF 30,000 (~$52) for households with fewer than 5 children, CFAF 40,000 (~$69) for households with 5 or more children; quarterly, for three years Amount and • Public works: Not applicable frequency of • Productive inclusion (income-generating activities): planned CFAF 100,000 (~$170) per recip- payments ient • Shock response: CFAF 20,000 (~$34), three payments a year for two years • Accompanying measures: Nutrition and early childhood development Chapter 4  Progress in FY 2019 17 implementing accompanying measures that promote better nutrition, health, and education outcomes. Awareness raising and monitoring sessions in groups of 20– 25 members ensure that mothers are informed about best nutritional practices for their children, among other things. As noted, the project is testing productive inclusion measures in four provinces to strengthen household resilience and the economic activities of poor households; these are currently reaching almost 18,000 beneficiaries. The adaptive shock-response transfer modality continues to be implemented in Boulkiemdé Province, reaching 7,636 households as of June 2019. Security risks continue to negatively affect project delivery. Particularly in the northern and eastern parts of the country, the security situation has been deteriorating in recent months and years. The state of emergency that was put in place in 14 provinces in 7 out 13 regions in December 2018 BOX 4.1  Use of mobile money for cash was extended for another six months in July transfers in Burkina Faso 2019, as the government struggles to ensure While most payments in FY 2019 were carried out using control over the affected areas. As a result cash, the project is currently transitioning to the use of of security risks, payments have had to be mobile money for most transfers. This is not only cheaper repeatedly rescheduled, and project expansion— and more efficient, but also removes security concerns— for example, to the insecure Sahel region—has which are increasing with the rising fragility in certain proven challenging. Mitigation measures include parts of Burkina Faso. To better enable the use of mobile transitioning to electronic instead of cash money, the project is providing mobile phones and has payments (box 4.1), as well as deepened dialogue made efforts to facilitate the process of obtaining offi- with local authorities and the national government cial identification, which is needed to register SIM cards. regarding adjustments of the delivery model. Bank-executed activities In FY 2019, the SASPP supported the development of two analytical assessments: a social safety nets assessment and a targeting study. The social safety nets assessment (1) identified the social safety net’s gaps by assessing whether the offer of social safety nets is commensurate with the needs and (2) assessed the overall social safety net performance and (3) contributes to a consolidation of expenditure. Presented to stakeholders during a high-level workshop in April 2019 which was attended by the minister of women, national solidarity, the family and humanitarian action, the study showed that Burkina Faso would be able to eradicate poverty if its more than 100 social programs were more efficiently targeted. The targeting study aims to compare the most-used targeting methodologies in Burkina Faso—proxy means testing, household economy analysis, and self-targeting. Using data collected to evaluate the Burkin-Naong- Sa Ya program, the study assesses and compares the effectiveness of the three targeting methods in selecting poor and vulnerable households in Burkina Faso. The study is expected to be finalized by the end of the 2019 calendar year. 18 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 Technical assistance has mainly focused on improving the program’s information system as well as providing support for establishment of a social registry. Through continuous geographic expansion, the social registry currently houses information on 134,168 households and 908,537 individuals. With support from the World Bank, the project implementing unit is working to integrate information from the Youth Employment and Skills Development project as well as other projects funded by the government and partners. Coordination with development partners and humanitarian agencies Strategic coordination between government agencies and development partners is improving. A technical committee is working on the harmonization of questionnaires for data collection as a first step toward the establishment of a USR. The World Bank team is working closely with other development partners, most notably the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), in its expansion to the country’s volatile Sahel region. CHAD In Chad, over a third of the population lived on less than $1.90 per day in 2011, and around two-thirds of the population lived on less than $3.20 per day.3 Chad is a sparsely populated country of just under 15.5 million people. It ranks last among the 157 countries on the World Bank’s Human Capital Index. A child who starts school at age 4 is expected to complete only five years of education by the time he or she reaches age 18. Poverty is associated with food insecurity. According to an assessment conducted in 2013, 23 percent of children under age five did not consume the minimum daily caloric food intake, 27 percent suffered from chronic malnutrition, and 14  percent were experiencing acute malnutrition (World Bank 2015a). Climate change represents a driver of fragility, with less predictable rains and the decreasing availability of arable land; coupled with a rapidly growing population, this is leading to increasing tensions between communities. Chad hosted more than 450,000 refugees as of the end of 2018— representing around 3 percent of Chad’s population—and over 165,000 internally displaced persons (UNHCR 2018). A new Refugees and Host Communities Support Project was approved by the World Bank’s Board of Directors in September 2018. This $60 million project seeks to improve the access of refugees and host communities to basic 3 In 2011, the poverty headcount ratio at $1.90/day (in 2011 purchasing parity power–adjusted dollars) was 38.4 percent; at $3.20/day, it was 66.5 percent. Chapter 4  Progress in FY 2019 19 services, livelihoods, and safety nets, and to strengthen the country’s systems to manage refugees (World Bank 2018c). The new project, which is six times larger than the current social safety nets project (in terms of funds), will rely on, and further expand, the systems developed under the pilot project and on lessons learned during its implementation. Specifically, the new project leverages the safety net project by building on its targeting mechanism, as well as on the delivery systems developed through the safety net project. Going forward, it is envisaged that the ASP approach will be integrated in the Refugees and Host Communities Support Project agenda. The pilot program implemented under this grant will be closed in late 2019. However, through the development of service delivery instruments (targeting, registration, and payment systems on Android applications) and work on the USR, the pilot has spurred a certain level of confidence in terms of implementation capacities at the national level and among partners. Hence, the government of Chad, together with the World Bank, has decided to rely on systems developed under the safety nets project for the Refugees and Host Communities Support Project. This provides an opportunity to scale up registry development and reach out to more poor and vulnerable people in the various regions of Chad. Recipient-executed activities In FY 2019, the safety net project supported cash transfers as well as labor-intensive public works. About 6,200 households are currently receiving timely regular cash transfers in two provinces (Bahr el Gazel and Logone Occidental) (table 4.2); to date, seven quarterly payments out of the eight have been delivered. The average cash transfer coverage rate is 98 percent, and payments are delivered to all beneficiaries within a week. The labor-intensive public works program provides cash for work opportunities to about 7,000 beneficiaries in poor neighborhoods of the capital city, N’Djamena. All beneficiaries are provided with training and supervision to carry out the various activities while adhering to social and environmental safeguard standards. The project seeks to build resilience through human capital development measures as well as accompanying measures and provides assistance in response to shocks. A package of human capital development measures, which focus on early childhood development (health, nutrition, education, and early stimulation), are delivered to cash transfer beneficiaries. Productive accompanying measures are also provided to 2,000 regular cash transfer beneficiaries. In addition to a one-time subsidy, these households receive coaching and training for development of their activities—including, for instance, access to inputs and markets. In response to food crisis shocks during the four-month lean season 20 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 Table 4.2  Chad SASPP budget and outputs at a glance Name Projet Pilote de Filets Sociaux Total budget $10 million (IDA: $5 million, SASPP: $5 million) • Cash transfers: 6,200 households (31,000 beneficiaries) • Public works: 7,000 beneficiaries Number of • Productive inclusion (income-generating activities): 2,000 beneficiaries beneficiaries • Shock response: 1,400 households (7,000 beneficiaries) • Accompanying measures: 6,200 households • Cash transfers: CFAF 15,000 (~$25) per month per beneficiary household, on a quarterly basis • Public works: CFAF 1,200 (~$2) per day for 80 days (one cycle) per beneficiary, on a monthly basis Amount and • Productive inclusion (income-generating activities): CFAF 45,000 (~$76) one time to cash frequency of transfer beneficiaries payments • Shock response: CFAF 30,000 (~$50) per month per beneficiary for 4 months (lean season), on a monthly basis • Accompanying measures: Early childhood development in Bahr el Gazel (June–September 2019), shock-responsive cash transfers of CFAF 30,000 (about $50) per month per beneficiary are being provided to about 1,400 vulnerable households. Major progress was made toward the establishment of the USR. The establishment of the USR benefited from strong collaboration among a range of safety net stakeholders in the country. The work accomplished included development of a harmonized questionnaire formally recognized through government decree, collection of data based on the harmonized questionnaire by different partners, development of a USR implementing manual, and development of the USR information system based on that used in Mauritania’s USR system. In March 2019, Chad’s USR was officially launched and anchored within the National Institute of Statistics (Institut National de la Statistique, des Études Économiques et Démographiques, INSEED). In addition, major progress has been made in developing a comprehensive safety nets delivery system (targeting, registration, and payment mechanisms) and a grievance redress mechanism. The SASPP has enabled successful collaboration between the Chadian and Mauritanian governments to build a country information system through knowledge and information sharing. Chad’s government has adapted Mauritania’s management information system to build its USR, enabling Chad to capitalize on Mauritanian experience, thereby saving resources and time. Bank-executed activities During FY 2019, significant technical assistance was provided by the World Bank team to government counterparts. This work included finalization Chapter 4  Progress in FY 2019 21 of preparatory activities (design, targeting, development of operational manuals) for delivery of the shock-responsive and adaptive cash transfers subcomponent in Bahr el Gazel, and productive cash transfers in Bahr el Gazel and Logone Occidental; important progress on the productive cash transfer’s impact evaluation and assessment of preliminary effects of the regular cash transfers on beneficiaries; technical support to improve early warning systems for droughts to prevent food insecurity; finalization of the USR information system; and launch of the USR in collaboration with partners, including NGOs and international development actors. Service delivery systems (registration and payment applications) have also been upgraded. An impact evaluation is being carried out to gauge a range of impacts from the first year of regular cash transfers. Impacts are categorized as follow: resilience and productivity, closing gender gaps, and human capital investments. For the impact of productive accompanying measures on cash transfer beneficiaries, baseline information has been collected and the grants for productive investments—including the related accompanying activities—have been initiated. To further tailor projects to include an adaptive component, the team enhanced its targeting methods through development of a report, “Adaptive Cash Transfers Targeting Methodology.” The report was completed and presented to the government in May 2019. It has already been used to select beneficiaries for adaptive cash transfers. Coordination with development partners and humanitarian agencies In Chad, a strong partnership exists between development partners and humanitarian agencies. This collaboration led to joint development of the harmonized questionnaire, a data collection tool that serves as an initial key element in developing the USR; and development of the USR manual and conventions. Primary safety net actors such as European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) and the WFP support the use of the harmonized questionnaire for data collection for social interventions promoted by the government and have participated in the USR building process. The Sahel Alliance recently harmonized the scoring of its targeting tool through a national workshop to enable full use of the harmonized questionnaire for data collection in its programs and thereby contribute to the development of Chad’s USR. MALI Of the six countries in the Sahel region, Mali has the highest poverty rates. Based on a poverty line of $1.90 per day, Mali had a poverty rate of 41 percent in 22 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 2019. Ninety percent of the poor live in rural areas, where the impact of drought, as in 2012, significantly exacerbates poverty (World Bank 2015b). High fertility rates of six births per woman in 2017, combined with land degradation, conflict, and climate change, create pressure on land tenure (World Bank 2015b). Since 2012, Mali has been experiencing high levels of insecurity, first in the north of the country and more recently in its central Mopti region, with inter-ethnic conflicts and Islamist insurgencies. This situation has led to the displacement of 171,400 Malians internally, and 138,300 externally.4 Mali is ranked 154 out of 157 countries on the World Bank’s Human Capital Index. Stunting affects 30 percent of children; a child born in Mali today will be 32 percent as productive when they grow up as they could be if they enjoyed full education and health. The SASPP has supported putting in place the elements of a shock- responsive social protection system, particularly by fostering enhanced coordination and support to the development of a social registry. The SASPP has contributed to reinforcing the capacity of the Ministry of Solidarity and Humanitarian Action to bring together actors working on crisis management to provide opportunities for better coordination of their activities. The grant’s support to the development of the country’s social registry and advocacy activities for its use are contributing to expansion of the database. Data in the USR are increasing through several channels: coordination with NGOs and with the health and agriculture sectors is gaining momentum, with some NGOs already providing information on the beneficiaries of their programs to the USR. Data sharing protocols with the health insurance agency (Agence Nationale pour l’Assurance Médicale, ANAM) are operational. Recipient-executed activities Substantial progress was made in implementation of income-generating activities. This effort seeks to enable groups of poor, small and subsistence agriculture households enrolled in the USR to develop more productive activities. The most frequently selected income-generating activities are small farming, small trade, livestock, poultry, agriculture, and crafts. In FY 2019, 2,040 households received the grant to start activities. The project thus successfully reached its target of 10,000 beneficiaries (table 4.3). A process evaluation is under way to assess the relevance and quality of technical assistance provided by the NGOs (especially in terms of duration and support in accessing markets) and the viability of the activities. 4 Source: UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), Operational Portal Refugee Situations: Mali Situation, https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/malisituation. Chapter 4  Progress in FY 2019 23 Table 4.3  Mali SASPP budget and outputs at a glance Name Emergency Safety Nets Project (Jigisemejiri) Total budget $136.45 million (IDA: $122.00 million, SASPP: $13.45 million, government: $1.0 million) • Cash transfers: 79,168 households • Public works: 5,650 beneficiaries Number of • Productive inclusion (income-generating activities): 10,000 beneficiaries beneficiaries • Shock response: 17,713 households • Accompanying measures: 12,557 households • Cash transfers: CFAF 30,000 (~$50) on a quarterly basis • Public works: CFAF 1,500 (~$1.50) daily • Productive inclusion (income-generating activities): CFAF 120,000 (~$200) as a one-off pay- Frequency of ment and one year technical assistance payments • Shock response: CFAF 60,000 (~$100) as a one-off payment • Accompanying measures: Health, education, nutrition, family planning, and investment/saving planning SASPP funding is supporting the provision of cash transfers with accompanying measures (behavior change training) to 3,000 households in Gao, Nianfunke, and Youwarou. To ensure implementation of activities in high-insecurity areas such as the North and Center of the country, the project set up partnerships with NGOs through an existing common framework (cadre commun des ONGs) in those areas where regular payment agencies such as banks do not operate. Despite the insecurity, in FY 2019 the project provided quarterly cash transfers to a total of 3,000 households in Gao, Nianfunke, and Youwarou. The beneficiary communities received behavior change trainings on child development, girls’ education, and family planning conducted by NGOs; a total of 12,557 households attended these trainings in the three areas. Moreover, as part of the Sahel Alliance, a joint effort of development partners aimed at rehabilitating the Konna harbor and stabilizing the neighboring commune, the project selected 1,000 beneficiaries and delivered four payments to 996 beneficiaries. Labor-intensive public works seek to provide direct income support to poor and vulnerable households through the participation of one adult household member. Mali’s program is expected to support implementation of 400 microprojects. By the end of June 2019, 60 construction sites out of 400 had received equipment from the project, which was to be completed by the end of September 2019 (in Kita, Bamako commune III, and Nioro). A response to food insecurity was successfully implemented in FY 2019. In August 2018, the government of Mali requested that the SASPP provide a one-time cash transfer of CFAF 60,000 (about $100) to 31,000 former beneficiary households in areas affected by food insecurity. Given that contracts for payment agencies had to be reissued in some areas where the project was no longer operating, the 24 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 Jigisemejiri project made a first set of payments to 13,000 households in April 2019. The project is completing cash transfers to 17,000 households in the Kayes, Segou, and Mopti (except for Bankass because of insecurity) regions. The SASPP leveraged IDA funding to support this response to the shock. SASPP funding is contributing to expansion of the USR. Registry testing was concluded in July 2018, and a workshop was held the following October. Approximately 300,000 records from the health insurance agency were transferred to the USR. To further incentivize use of the registry by multiple governmental and nongovernmental programs, the USR team is developing a communication plan for the registry; it also made a presentation on the USR to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the Food-for-Peace team, and the Cash Working Group. The midterm objective is to strengthen the legal framework to ensure all actors in the field of social protection, especially with regard to safety nets, use the USR as an entry point for targeting. A presentation on the USR platform was presented to the Ministry of Solidarity and Humanitarian Affairs in mid-2019; the ministry has renewed the government’s commitment to proceed with an official launch of the USR by the end of 2019. Bank-executed activities In FY 2019, the World Bank supported the Mali government in designing a strategy for scaling up safety nets in response to shocks. An international consultant was recruited to elaborate a strategy for scaling up selected shock interventions. It is envisaged that the strategy report will be available in FY 2020. The World Bank also supported implementation of a new social protection strategy through training and capacity building. The government of Mali launched a new social protection policy in 2016 that incorporates a resilience approach and guidance on government response to shocks. As a member of the development partners working group on social protection, the World Bank has participated in outsourcing evaluation of the social protection policy’s action plan 2016–18 and in the development of the new action plan 2019–23. The SASPP also helped support organization of a fourth national conference on social protection in October 2018. The theme of the conference was “Operationalizing and Financing the Social Protection Floor in Mali.” Coordination with development partners and humanitarian agencies With SASPP support, the MOU between Mali’s Jigisemejiri project and the WFP is being operationalized on the ground. The activities to be undertaken in the course of this fiscal year include the following: Chapter 4  Progress in FY 2019 25 ●● Analysis of current and as-yet-undefined new convergence zones in order to optimize and ensure integration between WFP and Jigisemejiri interventions ●● Definition of geographic convergence areas and the type of integrated package that the WFP and Jigisemejiri want to implement MAURITANIA Albeit rich in natural resources, Mauritania is vulnerable to climate change and food insecurity, particularly jeopardizing the livelihoods of the poor who depend on the natural environment. An eroding coastline, desertification, greater frequency and severity of drought, rising temperatures, as well as increased scarcity of water and flash flooding, place the livelihoods of the poor at risk in Mauritania (World Bank 2017b). While progress has been made on poverty reduction—poverty, as measured by the poverty headcount ratio of $3.20 per day, decreased from 42.5 percent in 2004 to 24.1 percent in 2014—Mauritania ranks very low on the Human Capital Index, ranking 150 out of 157 countries. A child born in Mauritania today will be 35 percent as productive when he or she grows up compared to if he or she enjoyed full education and health. Stunting affected 27.9 percent of children in 2015, creating a risk of cognitive and physical limitations. The SASPP has enabled significant progress on the development of an ASP system in Mauritania. Mauritania’s social registry scaled up from 65,450 households in July 2018 to 138,600 households in June 2019. The social transfer program Tekavoul scaled up from 21,000 households in 2018 to 30,000 households in 2019 (table 4.4). Moreover, the shock-responsive safety net program Elmaouna scaled up from 4,500 households benefiting from cash transfers by July 2018 to 8,300 households as of June 2019. Productive asset support was introduced and provided to 1,650 individuals, as compared to zero in July 2018. Recipient-executed activities In Mauritania, the SASPP supported three main instruments: a national social registry and two social safety net programs. All key building blocks of Mauritania’s safety net system are in place, and project indicators are in line with the SASPP results framework. These three instruments are supported by an IDA project and SASPP recipient-executed activities. Their implementation status is described below. The social registry was initiated by the government in 2016 with World Bank support. The social registry is a transformative public good, which allows the overall system of social programs to improve their targeting, and hence impact, 26 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 Table 4.4  Mauritania SASPP budget and outputs at a glance Name Mauritania Social Safety Net Support Total budget $31.3 million (IDA: $15.0 million, SASPP: $6.3 million, government: $10 million) • Cash transfers: 30,000 households (197,000 beneficiaries) • Public works: Not applicable Number of • Productive inclusion (income-generating activities): 1,650 beneficiaries beneficiaries • Shock response: 8,300 households (25,000 beneficiaries) • Accompanying measures: 30,000 households (197,000 beneficiaries) • Cash transfers: UM 1,500 (~$42) on a quarterly basis • Public works: Not applicable Amount and • Productive inclusion (income-generating activities): UM 9,000 (~$250) as a one-off payment frequency of payments • Shock response: UM 9,600 (~$267) during the lean season • Accompanying measures: Social promotion activities on essential family practices (early child- hood development, hygiene, nutrition) at a lower cost. Any governmental or nongovernmental program can use the registry to identify poor and vulnerable households and establish its own list of beneficiaries. The service is free and only requires the signing of a standardized user protocol. As of 2019, seven organizations have signed the protocol to use the social registry.5 During FY 2019, the main humanitarian actors have developed a common methodology to use the registry to respond to shocks. In terms of coverage, the registry’s objective is to span the entire country and include the poorest 200,000 households (32  percent of the Mauritanian population). As of June 2019, 138,635 poor households have been registered in the social registry database; of these, 96,184 have complete data. At the current pace, the objective of 200,000 households should be reached during the second half of 2020. Tekavoul is a conditional cash transfer program in which households enroll for an initial five-year cycle. The program combines regular cash transfers with social promotion activities designed to promote knowledge of essential family practices and investment in early childhood development. Tekavoul is targeted toward the extreme poor, and has been designed as a permanent program aiming to provide support to Mauritania’s 100,000 poorest households. As of June 2019, approximately 30,000 households in extreme poverty were benefiting from the program. Tekavoul has established a permanent nationwide electronic payment platform. In June 2019, it tested biometric identification of beneficiaries through fingerprints. Tekavoul conditions receipt of cash transfers on households’ participation in social promotion activities to encourage beneficiaries to invest in 5 These are the Tadamoun Agency, the WFP, Oxfam, Médicos del Mundo, Action Against Hunger, the Food Security Office, the National Fish Distribution Company, and Save the Children. Chapter 4  Progress in FY 2019 27 their human capital by promoting positive behavioral change around three themes: early childhood development, hygiene, and nutrition. The social promotion activities currently being delivered are for both the household member receiving the cash transfers as well as community leaders. During FY  2019, Tekavoul and UNICEF established a partnership that enables Tekavoul to benefit from UNICEF’s expertise and support on social promotion activities. During FY 2019, Tekavoul supported delivery of a productive asset package to strengthen the household resilience of the poorest. This package includes, for instance, life skills development, savings groups, punctual cash transfer, and management training. The productive asset package was launched in March 2018 as an 18-month pilot. About 1,650 beneficiaries have been selected through public lottery. The punctual cash grant was delivered in June/July 2019; coaching by a local NGO will continue until the end of calendar year 2019. The shock-responsive safety net program Elmaouna is implemented by the Food Security Office. Elmaouna aims to assist poor households affected by any type of covariate shock that affects their economic capacity and well-being. The pilot, which was launched in 2017, initially provided cash transfers to 1,000 households. During the 2018 lean season (June–September 2018), a second phase of the program expanded to support 3,500 households. In June 2019, the third phase was launched; it will support about 25,000 individuals (3,800 households). A total transfer amount of UM 9,600 (about $266) is provided per household. The program builds on the existing social registry, as well as the Tekavoul payment platform. The Elmaouna program provided the government with the opportunity to implement an emergency cash transfer for the first time; previously, the government provided only emergency food distribution. Bank-executed activities Analytical work and technical assistance activities have contributed to policy dialogue on ASP in Mauritania, supporting the development of an ASP system. The following activities have been undertaken to strengthen household resilience to shocks and mitigate the impacts of shocks on household welfare. ●● Support for policy dialogue and government ownership of the SASPP agenda. In September 2018, a retreat with the government in Nouadhibou defined the approach to be adopted to set up the country’s shock-response system. In March 2019, the government organized a workshop to officially launch the process of establishing the national early warning system, including preparation and planning of response to food security and nutrition shocks. This workshop received financial and technical support from the World Bank and the 28 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 WFP; it was organized by the Food Security Office with the involvement of the Prime Minister’s Office and included around 60 participants from government, donors, NGOs, and UN agencies. The outcome was a consensual roadmap to design and institutionalize the system and tools to respond to shocks related to food insecurity in Mauritania. An important tool in this context is the decision- support tool described in box 4.2. ●● Enabling successful cross-country knowledge exchange. In April 2019, a study tour for the government of Mauritania was organized in Senegal and Niger. The objective of the tour—which was fully achieved—was to learn and exchange information on the institutional set-up and modalities to respond to shocks that affect vulnerable households’ well-being. The Mauritanian delegation consisted of 11 representatives from the Prime Minister’s Office; the Ministries of Economy and Finance, Health, and Interior; the Food Security Office; and the social registry. The study visit was organized at the governmental level and jointly supported by the World Bank and the WFP. ●● Technical assistance to support ASP principles and operationalization of these principles in Mauritania. The World Bank is financing technical assistance to support (1) social registry tools and planning; (2) shock-responsive program design, implementation, and monitoring; and (3) measurement of productive inclusion measures through the Tekavoul program. ●● Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) activities to inform program adjustment. The World Bank and the Mauritanian government are carrying out an impact evaluation to assess the impact of productive accompanying measures. The baseline report was finalized in September 2018. Endline data collection was scheduled for the second half of 2019, and the related impact evaluation report will be available in early 2020. Additionally, a post-distribution monitoring of the shock-responsive program Elmaouna was carried out in November 2018 in the aftermath of the 2019 intervention. This survey study highlighted the beneficiary profile, coping strategies to face shocks, use of cash received, and other relevant information. It also suggested ways to improve shock-responsive programs. Coordination with development partners and humanitarian agencies Several initiatives that are enhancing collaboration and harmonization with humanitarian actors have been carried out during FY 2019. These include signing an MOU with the WFP, supporting a consultative group on the early warning system and response plan, and designing a common operational manual to use the social registry to respond to shocks. Chapter 4  Progress in FY 2019 29 ●● In January 2019, country representatives of the World Bank and the WFP in BOX 4.2  Development of a decision-support tool for early warning systems Mauritania signed a four-year MOU (2019– 22). The MOU will be supported by an annual The SASPP, working with the World Bank’s Disaster Risk joint action plan. The 2019 joint action plan was Management team, supported the design of an innova- adopted; it includes 26 actions to support the tive decision-support tool. The tool uses high-resolution ASP agenda. satellite imagery along with modeling to calibrate the relationship between climate anomalies of the rainy sea- ●● In early 2017, the World Bank and the WFP son and food insecurity in the subsequent lean period. initiated an inclusive consultation group This information will help increase the spatial resolution to reinforce coordination and dialogue of the country’s early warning system’s food-security on early warning systems and a shock- estimates and produce timely estimates to efficiently response plan. This group includes the main support the targeting and implementation of shock-re- humanitarian actors and meets on a regular sponsive interventions by development and humanitar- basis. The group had two meetings during ian partners. In December 2018, the early warning system FY 2019. Additionally, options for a triggering committee, chaired by the Food Security Office, made system were defined through a World Bank– a presentation on this tool and its potential outcomes. WFP consultancy. The aim of the consultancy A workshop was organized jointly with the WFP in June was to define the criteria and thresholds 2019 to present and discuss the tool with a larger audi- triggering an intervention following a shock. ence, including NGOs, ECHO, and other stakeholders. The consultancy will also provide guidance on The tool will be finalized during FY 2020 and integrated the criteria to be used and intervention areas into Mauritania’s early warning system. to prioritize in case of limited resources. The outputs of the analyses were discussed with the government and partners in March 2019. ●● An operational manual to use the social registry to respond to shocks was adopted. A joint study with the WFP on the use of the social registry in the context of a food-insecurity shock was supported. This study defined procedures to enable optimal use at scale of the registry in order to improve the coherence, timeliness, and efficiency of targeting of shock-response programs. The resulting operational manual has been adopted by the committee and will be used for the 2019 response to shocks by the main actors in the area where the social registry has been deployed. ●● The Food Security Office and humanitarian NGOs and agencies have agreed to coordinate and harmonize their 2019 intervention. This initiative has included coordination of intervention areas to ensure that those defined as most affected by food and nutritional insecurity will be covered without overlap. Moreover, the amount of cash being distributed to beneficiaries during 2019 will be based on the number of individuals within the household. 30 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 NIGER Niger is among the poorest countries in the world (World Bank 2017c), with a poverty headcount ratio of 44.5 percent based on the $1.90 per day poverty line. More than 80 percent of the labor force works in agriculture and livestock rearing (World Bank 2017c); and agriculture, forestry, and fishing accounted for 39.7 percent of Niger’s gross domestic product in 2017. The country has a rapidly growing population, with high fertility rates of 7.2 births per woman in 2017. Population growth leads to increasing pressure on land, while climate change exacerbates weather variability. These factors contribute to persistent food insecurity and malnutrition, with almost 20 percent of the population being unable to meet their food needs.6 Stunting affected 42.2 percent of children under the age of five in 2016. Niger ranks 155 out of 157 countries on the World Bank’s Human Capital Index. The SASPP has enabled provision of institutional support and implementation of the productive inclusion agenda, as well as design of a shock-response pilot in FY 2019. The project has financed several activities aimed at strengthening the M&E capacities of the DN to improve government’s capacity to plan, monitor, and coordinate safety nets. Implementation of productive accompanying measures, including cash grants, has been completed in all beneficiary regions. The World Bank team is also assisting the government in designing a shock-response pilot as part of the Niger Adaptive Safety Nets Project 2. The pilot will be designed to allow for horizontal and vertical scale-up in response to drought. Recipient-executed activities Significant progress has been made during FY 2019 to set up a USR. The government has agreed to nominate the DN as the institution responsible USR implementation. Both the Steering Committee and the Technical Committee are functional. Data sharing protocols are being discussed with the DN. The team is also working to develop the macro-level information structure of the USR, which will include information at the program level. This effort will facilitate planning of new interventions and it is the first step in operationalizing the USR. Several institutions have agreed to share their data with the USR unit once the data sharing and data management protocols are clearly defined.7 The USR will contain data on more than 500,000 households, including 300,000 households from the Niger Adaptive 6 Source: WFP, “Niger,” https://www1.wfp.org/countries/niger. 7 These include the WFP, Save the Children, Concern, Action Against Hunger, Oxfam, and Helen Keller International. In addition, the Food Security Unit of the Dispositif (CCA) has also Chapter 4  Progress in FY 2019 31 Safety Nets Project. It is planned that high-level government officials will conduct a study tour in Mali to explore potential synergies and complementarities with the Malian USR team and discuss the possibility of signing a protocol for sharing good information technology management practices and database solutions developed by Mali counterparts. Cash transfers and cash for work activities are ongoing as scheduled. The cycle of 24 payments of cash transfers was completed; in total, 98,747 households received access to cash transfers in the eight regions of the country (table 4.5). Within the cash for work activity, the project provided support to 50,256 beneficiaries and more than 700 community assets were either built or restored. The project has completed georeferencing of all 753 worksites completed since the beginning of cash for work interventions. Emergency cash transfers planned in the Diffa and Agadez regions were successfully distributed. Twelve months of cash transfers were provided to beneficiaries in the two regions. A total of 4,691 households have benefited from a monthly transfer of CFAF 10,000 (about $17) for a 12-month period to help them cope with the impact of conflict (Diffa) or drought (Agadez). In Diffa, the emergency cash transfer program was implemented in three communes (Chetimari, Diffa, and Geskerou); 54 percent of the beneficiaries were internally displaced persons, 37 percent were from the host population, and 9 percent were returnees. In Agadez, support was provided to pastoralist communities affected by drought in the communes of Gougaram, Iferouane, and Timia. Accompanying measures for behavioral change are ongoing in Agadez, Diffa, and Niamey. It has been agreed that awareness activities would focus on two components in Agadez and three in Niamey. Given the prevailing insecurity in Diffa, only one meeting with community workers at the commune level was organized to collect data related to the existing components and to train community workers on the new ones. With the support of the Bank team, the project is looking for relevant strategies to deal with the state of emergency declared in Diffa which forbids public gatherings, thereby negatively affecting implementation of the accompanying measures for behavioral changes. In all, accompanying measures were provided to 87,331 households. The productive inclusion package, which includes training programs and a cash grant, has been implemented in all the beneficiary regions. The project field staff continue to provide guidance to beneficiaries on the functioning of village- made its data available to the USR, and data from the NGOs CARE, World Vision, and the International Rescue Committee are currently being compiled. 32 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 Table 4.5  Niger SASPP budget and outputs at a glance Name Niger Adaptive Safety Nets Project Total budget $101 million (IDA: $92.5 million, SASPP: $8.5 million) • Cash transfers: 98,747 households (691,229 beneficiaries) • Public works: 50,256 beneficiaries Number of • Productive inclusion (income-generating activities): 16,697 beneficiaries beneficiaries • Shock response: 4,691 households (32,837 beneficiaries) • Accompanying measures: 87,331 households • Cash transfers: $20/month on a monthly basis Amount and • Public works: $2.50/day on a biweekly basis frequency of • Productive inclusion (income-generating activities): $150 as a one-off payments • Shock response: $20/month on a monthly basis • Accompanying measures: Parenting behaviors, early childhood development, nutrition level savings and loan groups, the achievements of various training courses, and implementation of individual business plans. In the communes of Karma (Tillabéry region), Kantché (Zinder region), and Kornaka (Maradi region) payment of the training coaches was jointly provided by the project and beneficiaries until the end of May 2019. In all other communes benefiting from productive accompanying measures, the financial support provided to coaches by the project ended on March 31, 2019. It should be noted, however, that coaches are still active in all the communes and continue providing close support to beneficiaries. A follow-up survey for impact evaluation took place from April to May 2019. The analysis of the data collected is ongoing, and the preliminary results should be available during FY 2020. Significant progress has been made in setting up an effective M&E system at the DN to coordinate all M&E systems in DN units. As recommended in the DN diagnosis conducted last year, the DN is finalizing its M&E manual, which will establish clear guidelines on M&E procedures and standards. The manual will be a key tool for operationalizing the integrated M&E system within the DN. Several capacity-building activities identified in the action plan have been launched to strengthen the M&E unit and support its capacity to inform the DN Permanent Secretary. Going forward, it is envisaged that policy dialogue with the government on implementation of activities suggested in the action plans will continue, with financing from the World Bank within the SASPP institutional support component. Bank-executed activities To draw lessons from project interventions, several studies and evaluations are ongoing. Chapter 4  Progress in FY 2019 33 ●● Public expenditure review on social Figure 4.1  Expenditures in Niger on short-term protection. The public expenditure review on shock-response and core safety nets social protection 2008–17 showed that only Billion CFAF about 7 percent of the population receives 200 social protection support in normal years Response to shock 160 when no major crisis strikes, and that most of the existing social protection programs focus 120 on short-term shock response rather than long-term core cash transfers for resilience 80 (figure 4.1). The review’s results were presented 40 Core safety net at the end of May 2019 to the Inter-ministerial Committee for Social Protection in Niamey. 0 This high-level meeting, held at the Prime 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Minister’s Office, was chaired by the minister of employment and social protection and attended by a dozen ministers from all sectors related to social protection. The government requested support from the World Bank to develop a roadmap of activities that the government of Niger and its partners can undertake based on the public expenditure review’s recommendations. This roadmap was presented at the Inter-ministerial Committee for Social Protection meeting in August 2019. Continuing to support the Ministry of Employment, Labour and Social Protection in this important next step provides an opportunity to implement the recommended reforms. ●● Process evaluation. A process evaluation of the implementation of behavioral accompanying measures implemented during the first project was conducted. The objective was to improve their design in the new project. A similar evaluation was carried out for cash for work activities to draw lessons to improve their design in the project’s second phase and to avoid recurrent delays experienced in the first phase of project implementation. ●● Shock-response pilot. With the support of the Climate Centre and the U.K. Met Office, as well as the World Bank’s Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice, the Bank’s Niger team is helping the government design a shock-response pilot as part of the Niger Adaptive Safety Nets Project 2. The pilot will be designed to allow for horizontal and vertical scale-up in response to drought. In the event of drought, beneficiaries of the core cash transfer program in the geographical area affected by shock will receive additional support (vertical expansion) for up to 12 months. The cash transfer program also will be expanded to reach additional beneficiaries in the affected areas for a period of up to 12 months (horizontal expansion). The technical working group led by the government is working to define triggers, operating procedures, and guidelines before the end of 2019. The pilot will be implemented in one region with a base 34 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 caseload of about 8,500 beneficiaries. Once systems are built, the approach will be expanded to cover other regions. Going forward, the project will aim to expand support to populations affected by other shocks, such as floods or movements of people. ●● Institutional support. The Niger Adaptive Safety Nets Project has placed strong emphasis on strengthening the government’s institutional capacities. The project initially financed several activities aimed at strengthening the M&E capacities of the DN to improve government capacity to plan, monitor, and coordinate safety nets. Building strong M&E systems will also improve the government’s capacity to use information on shocks, better assess the impact of shocks, and develop forecast-based financing and risk financing tools for shock response. Activities designed to support the DN in defining the parameters of a trigger-based shock- response system are ongoing. The project is also supporting implementation of the USR, which is seen by the government as the primary tool to improve coordination and synergies among all safety net interventions. Coordination with development partners and humanitarian agencies In March 2018, the World Bank and the WFP signed a strategic partnership framework, defining the main areas of collaboration between the two institutions. The two organizations are preparing an MOU to set the terms of a collaborative arrangement in the social protection sector covering georeferencing project locations, the USR, support to the DN, shock-response interventions, sharing lessons from impact evaluation, and joint field missions for lessons learning. The team is also discussing with the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) how to use SASPP- developed shock-response tools to benefit refugees. Collaboration is ongoing with the European Union and other financial and technical partners on support to the DN, and with ECHO-funded NGOs on implementation of the USR. Several technical and financial partners, including the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, AGRHYMET, the African Center of Meteorological Application for Development, the WFP, and the European Union, are also involved in technical discussions on designing data-based triggers for the shock-response pilot. SENEGAL Strong economic growth since 2015, driven by increased exports, is estimated to have reduced poverty in Senegal. In 2011, 47 percent of the population was poor; more recent estimates suggest that poverty has decreased by 4–7 percent since then. However, growth and poverty reduction have not been associated with declines in inequality (World Bank 2018d). Climate change is Chapter 4  Progress in FY 2019 35 expected to increase the extremes of weather patterns, exacerbating flood and drought risks. Urban coastal areas—where 67  percent of Senegal’s population resides and 90 percent of industrial production is concentrated—are vulnerable to coastal erosion and sea level rises. Climate change is associated with food insecurity, as 70  percent of agricultural production in Senegal is rain fed. It is estimated that 21 percent of rural households and 9 percent of urban households are food insecure, and chronic malnutrition affects 17 percent of children under age five (USAID 2018). Stunting particularly affects the poor: while 6.3 percent of children in the highest wealth quintile are stunted, 25.6 percent of their peers in the lowest wealth quintile are stunted (USAID 2018). SASPP funding has contributed to developing an ASP system in several ways. Senegal’s social registry, initially conceived to target 450,000 households across the country, is being updated and expanded to target all poor households. In addition to its cash transfer program reaching 300,000 beneficiaries (table 4.6), Senegal has also developed several shock-response pilots targeting 8,200 beneficiaries.8 In FY 2019, the SASPP supported Senegal in improving its shock response for fire by designing, implementing, and evaluating a pilot in the four most affected regions. The pilot supported about 200 poor households through cash transfers. The ongoing productive safety net project also expanded to three new departments since January 2019, with a first lump-sum payment going out in July 2019 of CFAF 150,000 (about $250) instead of the initially planned CFAF 80,000 (about $135) to align with regional best practice. Recipient-executed activities Senegal’s USR is being updated; it is also used to identify eligible households for agricultural inputs distribution. Community targeting and data collection for the registry was completed in the first four regions; community targeting in the eight remaining regions was completed at the end of June 2019, with data collection planned to start in August 2019. A pilot was prepared with the Ministry of Agriculture and the DGPSN to improve targeting of subsidized agricultural inputs distribution. Local distribution commissions will use USR lists to identify eligible households. The three-month pilot was launched at the end of June and will be evaluated. Sensitization activities for the PNBSF conditional cash transfer program are ongoing. Work on improving sensitization tools is making good progress. The first pilot to test these new tools and methodology should begin in November 8 A total of 8,000 households benefited from a food-security response pilot in FY 2018; 200 households benefited from a response pilot for fire. 36 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 Table 4.6  Senegal SASPP budget and outputs at a glance Name Senegal Adaptive Social Protection Total budget $51.55 million (IDA: $40.5 million, SASPP: $11.05 million) • Cash transfers: 300,000 households (2,700,000 beneficiaries) • Public works: Not applicable Number of • Productive inclusion (income-generating activities): 11,900 beneficiaries beneficiaries • Shock response: 8,381 households (75,429 beneficiaries) • Accompanying measures: 300,000 beneficiaries • Cash transfers: CFAF 25,000 (~$42) on a quarterly basis Amount and • Public works: Not applicable frequency of • Productive inclusion (income-generating activities): CFAF 150,000 (~$250) on a one-off basis payments • Shock response: CFAF 45,000 (~$76) monthly for 3 months • Accompanying measures: Sensitization every 3 months 2019 in two regions. The PNBSF has agreed on a strategy to recertify beneficiaries (redetermine their eligibility), as some have been in the program for more than five years. Recertification will occur following the update of the USR. The exact methodology is being discussed with the government. Several shock-response pilots were designed to further enhance the adaptive component of Senegal’s social protection system. A shock- response pilot for fire was completed, and an evaluation was conducted in June 2019. With a good 2018 agricultural season, the government decided not to fund the food-security response for the 2019 lean season. Productive safety net activities are ongoing and progressing well. Entrepreneurship and life skills trainings are complete. The payment of the lump sum was made in July 2019. Some savings groups have already completed their first saving cycle and are beginning a new one. The extension of productive safety nets in three additional departments began in January 2019. Its activities—setting up groups and savings group training—are completed, and entrepreneurship training is ongoing. The last payment of the lump sum was planned for September 2019. The activities (setting up the groups and saving groups training) are completed and the entrepreneurship training is ongoing. The payment of the lump sum is planned for August 2019. As noted earlier, the amount for the lump sum was reevaluated to CFAF 150,000 (about $250) per household to conform to regional practice and take advantage of budget availability. Coaching support will continue for three months after the end of the SASPP Recipient-Executed Trust Fund and will be funded by the IDA. Chapter 4  Progress in FY 2019 37 Bank-executed activities Comprehensive technical assistance and capacity-building activities are supporting the development of an ASP system in Senegal. Key activities in 2019 follow. ●● Development of two policy notes. The “How to Use ASP to Respond Efficiently to Shocks: The Case Study of the Food Insecurity Response in Senegal” policy note was drafted and presented to high-level officials in September 2018. This note captures important take-aways from targeting studies, vulnerability analysis, and vulnerability patterns and provides a way forward to use ASP to better respond to shocks that create food insecurity in Senegal. The note was published and disseminated in October 2018 for high-level officials as well as humanitarian actors and donors. A second policy note on the equity of social spending and subsidies was developed to inform the new government, which assumed power in April 2019. Under the new government, the DGPSN was moved to the newly created Ministry of Community Development and Social and Territorial Equity, which oversees all major social programs. The policy note was shared with the government and is slated to be disseminated in September/ October 2019. ●● Support to the government in drafting two decrees institutionalizing the USR and the PNBSF. Policy dialogue is ongoing for the adoption of these decrees. Their adoption could be considered as prior actions in the forthcoming equity development policy operations (DPO). Also, in FY 2019, the thematic chapter of Senegal’s economic update focused on ASP. It is expected that the recommendations will inform the government’s social protection strategy and operations. It will be disseminated in September/October 2019. ●● Improving the quality of data collected in the USR and facilitating dialogue on the USR with humanitarian actors. To date, the USR has been updated in 12 of 14 regions. Support in FY 2018 aimed to improve community targeting processes; based on this, significant support was provided in FY 2019 to improve the quality of the data collected. Also in FY 2019, efforts were concentrated on facilitating dialogue with humanitarian actors to help them understand how they could identify their target populations through the USR. This led to organization of a March 2019 workshop capitalizing on their experience in the food-security response of 2018 and the creation of a working group (including the WFP, Action Contre la Faim, and Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development) for USR users. ●● Identifying capacity-building needs related to early warning systems and designing a proposal for a triggering mechanism. Needs for capacity building related to early warning systems were identified and a training plan 38 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 developed, to be implemented through additional financing. The objective is to strengthen existing early warning systems with a view to better anticipate shocks that are relevant for food-insecurity responses, estimate their impacts, and accurately anticipate their location to inform the response. Preliminary discussions for a mechanism to trigger ASP responses were also held. Following the completion of a pilot to respond to food insecurity in FY 2017, there was strong interest in designing a trigger mechanism to render the government’s response to shocks more transparent and effective. Following a review of existing indicators and informal thresholds used, a proposal for indicators and thresholds for food insecurity, malnutrition, and pastoralism was shared with the Executive Secretariat of the National Food Safety Council and reviewed by the early warning system technical committee in FY 2019. ●● Supervision missions and hands-on support to facilitate implementation of two shock-response pilots. Pilots to respond to food insecurity and fire were implemented during FY 2018 and FY 2019. The conclusions of their evaluation were very positive. The World Bank supported implementation of these pilots through supervision missions and hands-on support. The two pilots show how new implementation mechanisms—such as identification of beneficiaries through the USR, the use of cash transfers, and contracting with on-the-ground implementers—increase the effectiveness of shock response. ●● Technical assistance to develop a new approach and adapt existing tools to build household resilience. This new approach includes the identification of key messages repeated through various activities over a six-month period. A pilot will be launched in two regions to test the approach in November 2019. It is anticipated that the approach will increase the impact of behavior change communication activities—and the resilience of its beneficiaries. In addition, support was provided to the PNBSF to define an exit strategy and recertification process for beneficiaries, and the manual of operations was revised accordingly. ●● Trainings on safety programs and study tours as part of capacity- building activities. Two trainings on safety net programs for the inter-ministerial technical committee and the Ministry of Women were organized. Also in FY 2019, a joint study tour with a Mauritanian delegation took place in Niger. The study tour enabled staff from the DGPSN and the Ministry of Finance to learn about the early warning system and the response to shocks. A report was developed to capture the key lessons learned. Another study tour was organized in Senegal for the Mauritanian delegation to present its ASP programs and early warning system. In addition, a Senegalese delegation participated in the Community of Practice on cash transfer programs organized in Madagascar in April 2019. Finally, dissemination of the report “Realizing the Full Potential of Safety Nets in Chapter 4  Progress in FY 2019 39 Africa” was organized with governmental actors, civil society organizations, and the media in April 2019. ●● Ongoing work to develop a financing strategy to respond to shocks. A simulation of the cost of response since 2014 was conducted based on historical data on shocks and needs to inform financing needs over time. The simulation was reviewed by government stakeholders in FY 2019 and discussions were launched around the needs for a financing strategy. A second workshop was organized in June 2019 gathering high-level officials from the Ministry of Finance and social protection actors to approve the simulation and define the next steps toward a financing strategy. Coordination with development partners and humanitarian agencies The SASPP has been supporting revision of Senegal’s institutional arrangements to make them more conducive to ASP. For instance, SASPP funding supported the establishment of implementation platforms at the local level through an NGO, as well as review of DGPSN’s role and responsibilities in the response to shocks. Finally, the SASPP enabled provision of technical inputs on the draft of a decree revising the status of the food security institution and supported the DGPSN to draft a decree for the establishment of the PNBSF and of the USR. The grant is helping to put ASP at the forefront of the agenda of humanitarian actors. A working group was established at the end of FY 2019 for USR users. 4.2  Regional programmatic activities PROGRESS IN FY 2019 Productive inclusion In FY 2019, significant progress was made in the implementation of productive inclusion packages. In partnership with technical assistance providers such as Trickle Up and CESAM, the SASPP regional team has provided support to implementation of productive measures in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. Implementation is completed in Niger, almost completed in Mauritania and Senegal, and advanced in Burkina Faso and Chad. An ambitious multicountry impact evaluation is on track and progressing according to plan. The study is assessing the effectiveness of accompanying measures to promote productive inclusion and resilience among the poor in the Sahel (box 4.3). The study covers Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. In FY 40 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 2019, these four countries had completed baseline BOX 4.3  Initial operational lessons from the surveys and a randomization protocol, with multicountry impact evaluation Burkina Faso the last to do so in 2019 (the other The multicountry impact evaluation on productive inclu- three countries had completed these elements sion is gathering implementation and operational les- in 2018). A baseline report and pre-analysis were sons, as well as measuring impact. Some interesting finalized based on the data collected from all lessons from an operational standpoint have already countries. Follow-up instruments were produced, emerged: and a first follow-up survey was completed in Niger. The study is on track to provide interim ●● The village-level savings and loan group model works results by the end of 2020. well to generate savings and strengthen social dynam- ics, even in the most remote and deprived sites under In parallel, the team has also continued study, but participation and contributions during the engaging more broadly in policy dialogue with lean season can be problematic. other countries interested in the productive inclusion approach. Chad, which is part of the ●● Coaching by local resource people leads to strong SASPP but not of the multicountry study, decided buy-in from communities, although there are chal- to implement productive accompanying measures. lenges in finding coaches with appropriate education For operational reasons, it chose a somewhat less levels and technical skills. extensive model, without psychosocial elements and savings groups. The Chad team set up a ●● Sensitization on social norms through videos was prospective impact evaluation, using the tools found to be very suitable to low-skill individuals. developed by the regional evaluation team as part Implementation in urban or peri-urban areas could of the multicountry study. Because its intervention not use the same open-air format because of space is not completely aligned, the Chad data will not constraints. be pooled with that from the regional study. The Chad study will nevertheless contribute to the ●● The production of basic business plans by beneficia- evidence base on productive inclusion, with an ries was very helpful in preparing for disbursement of emphasis on the measurement of spillover effects cash grants. at the local level. Poverty and vulnerability In FY 2019, significant progress was made on a regional study on targeting which synthesizes results from earlier country analytical work under the SASPP. This synthesis report clarifies targeting concepts, reviews the existing evidence in the Sahel region (which largely emerged in the past four years with the SASPP), and re-analyzes data from various implemented projects to measure targeting performance in a harmonized/comparable way. While there is wide consensus that social protection can play a crucial role in poverty alleviation strategies, there is equally wide disagreement regarding who should benefit from social protection. This analytical work aims to clarify the targeting concepts and reviews existing evidence about targeting methodologies employed in the Sahel Chapter 4  Progress in FY 2019 41 region. The focus on the Sahel allows for meaningful comparisons across various methods that are employed to select beneficiaries of social programs. The study will be completed in FY 2020. Additional areas of research supported by the regional platform in FY 2019 Besides the areas of thematic focus discussed above, the regional platform provides sufficient flexibility to pursue research agendas based on country demand and needs. In FY 2019, continued support was provided for activities related to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), among others. The SASPP is supporting an Innovation Fund which further contributes to spread and enhance program objectives by increasing stakeholder dialogue and cross-regional awareness-raising and knowledge sharing efforts. In the last year, the Innovation Fund has focused on supporting work in Niger, producing a review of the existing humanitarian and early warning sectors, and engaging with relevant country stakeholders. In continuation of that work, the fund is now supporting an analysis of drought risks to enhance early action through social protection in Niger, as well as to understand how specific groups are affected by climate shocks. A WASH initiative was implemented by a local NGO in Niger, building on the existing behavioral change component of the country’s Adaptive Safety Nets Project. Implemented between June and November 2018, the effort—Enhancing Household Resilience to Climate Vulnerability through Integrated Social Protection–WASH Community-Led Interventions—consisted of monthly distributions of free chlorine-based tablets and behavior change communication sessions targeting water quality and treatment (box 4.4). Households received a monthly dose of 30 tablets to treat at least one drinking water container per day. At the beginning of each month, supervisors organized an assembly in each intervention village targeting mothers and other members of the village to increase community mobilization. During these assemblies, the key behavior change messages were transmitted, chlorine-based water treatment was demonstrated, and participants were provided with their monthly dose of tablets. Mothers and influential men were subsequently invited to participate in smaller group counseling sessions conducted by female and male community educators, respectively. Some villages received additional behavioral nudges that aimed to increase compliance and systematic use of the tablets. Pilot results are still preliminary; an endline survey will be implemented between September 2019 and January 2020. 42 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 BOX 4.4  Preliminary WASH pilot results GOING FORWARD To date, the following lessons can be drawn from the The SASPP regional analytical program baseline data and preliminary findings collected through created for Phase 2 aims to address monitoring of the WASH pilot: key regional issues with a view toward generating cross-country knowledge and ●● Half of the rural population relies on unprotected learning, and best practice solutions and water sources; even households with access to products. To that end, country teams identified improved water face water contamination due to six thematic areas—in some of which work has improper transport and storage. already begun—that can benefit from a regional approach, and where more support is needed ●● There is a low level of awareness among rural house- to strengthen ASP systems (figure 4.2). These holds that untreated drinking water is unsafe and of six thematic areas reflect donor priorities for ways to gain access to free chlorine tablets. the Sahel and were agreed upon and confirmed in November 2018. Work in these areas will help ●● Chlorine is generally provided as a treatment for diar- in achieving higher-order regional objectives. rhea, rather than as a preventive systematic measure. Individually, these thematic areas are of great ●● The cost of chlorine tablets is low and not the main interest to government and country teams across barrier to its usage. the countries; they also can benefit from cross- country approaches and learning. The World Bank ●● A six-month intervention combining chlorine tablet has identified thematic leads for each area. In FY distribution with intensive behavior change commu- 2019, the SASPP team undertook the groundwork nication activities at the village level reached more to develop thematic area concept notes outlining than half of the targeted population and progressively their envisioned work over the next three years. increased demand for tablets. These elaborated on some of the work already undertaken and set learning objectives for ●● The distribution of chlorine tablets increased levels of the coming years. The following subsections chlorine-based water treatment and decreased levels summarize planned work in the thematic areas of E. coli contamination. for FY 2020. Analysis of poverty, vulnerability, and resilience Generating a deeper understanding of the nature of poverty and how it affects household resilience to shocks is critical to inform efforts to further strengthen ASP systems to better build household resilience and respond to shocks. It is important to do this in a way that is comparable across all Sahel countries. In collaboration with the World Bank’s Poverty Global Practice, the main objective of this analytical work program is to identify the main drivers of household resilience and use this information to improve social protection program design and impact assessment. This theme will be based on a common household survey that has been deployed across the region as well as explore the potential for using regional geospatial data. Chapter 4  Progress in FY 2019 43 Figure 4.2  Overview of the six SASPP thematic areas Analysis Sustainable Shock- Refugees Productive Foundations of poverty, national social responsive and forced inclusion, of human vulnerability, protection safety nets displacement livelihoods, capital and resilience delivery and resilience systems Regional analytical work thematic areas Sustainable national social protection delivery systems Social protection delivery systems are the foundation and underpinning of ASP, providing the means through which social protection programs can target and reach the most vulnerable. Each of the six countries are working to build and strengthen these core delivery systems—including targeting methods, social registries, government-to-person payment platforms, foundational identification platforms, integrated data science and analytics, and grievance redress mechanisms—and the potential for cross-country learning is extremely high. Additionally, finding ways to make these delivery systems more flexible and responsive to shocks is critical given the context previously outlined. The trinity of social registries, government-to-person payment platforms, and foundational identification platforms highlight the importance of building an ecosystem to enable access to social assistance, insurance, labor, jobs, and youth employment in the Sahel. When everyone, regardless of legal, economic, or social status has a government-recognized proof of identity through a foundational identification platform, social registry platforms can reach universal coverage and reliably assess eligibility for social assistance, health, and other shock-responsive programs. Government-to-person payment platforms can then transfer benefits, become flexible and shock responsive, and contribute to both digital financial inclusion of the poor and to women’s economic empowerment in the Sahel. 44 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 Shock-responsive safety nets Strengthening national government systems to respond to drought and food insecurity has been central to the SASPP since its inception and remains a priority area of engagement for the program’s second five-year phase. As an outcome of the SASPP’s activities during its first five-year phase (2014–19), several government-led programs in the Sahel have developed safety net pilots that respond to drought and food insecurity, or are closely engaged with the ministries or agencies that deliver emergency food response. Beyond the individual country-led activities, there are benefits to looking at some aspects of shock responsiveness from a regional perspective. Indeed, SASPP country teams revealed strong and specific demand for regional support and regional approaches to the development of early warning systems and triggers, disaster risk financing, and the nuts and bolts of delivering a shock response—drawing on knowledge from across the subregion as well as from outside it—to support their own country programs. The shock-responsive safety nets area theme will structure its activities around these three core focus areas, with specific activities aimed at delivering a blend of regional knowledge products, government-to-government learning exchanges, and provision of just-in-time technical assistance to task teams in relation to each. Refugees and forced displacement Following a series of consultations, the SASPP added forced displacement as a key regional issue affecting the Sahel and having potential implication for ASP. Refugees and internally displaced persons have become an increasingly significant and protracted issue in the Sahel and affect the context in which the World Bank and humanitarian partners operate. Approximately 1 million forcibly displaced persons reside in the Sahel region. The situation has developed into a long-term challenge, with approximately 70 percent of those who have been displaced in the Sahel currently having little or no prospect for a sustainable return. Given that Sahel refugees are a subregional problem—in addition to the severity and persistence of the issue and its implications for neighboring countries, Europe, humanitarian actors, and the Bank—a concerted cross-country effort is proposed. This thematic area aims to (1) understand how the drivers of forced displacement affect social protection systems and the current role of SASPP operations in addressing these, (2) provide a repertoire of options to upgrade safety net operations to be refugee inclusive, and (3) assess and promote different models of cooperation between humanitarian assistance and social protection for refugees and host communities. Lessons from this research can feed into improving the policy dialogue on refugees within countries as well as across countries, and in understanding the potential for coordinating efforts to respond to the crisis and increase cross-country learning on how each country is dealing with the situation. Chapter 4  Progress in FY 2019 45 Productive inclusion, livelihoods, and resilience The productive inclusion thematic area focuses on designing, implementing, and evaluating a package of productive activities—common across all countries—that can make households more resilient to shocks. The team has designed a regionally applicable package which is the basis of a regional impact evaluation with a sample of 16,700 beneficiaries across four Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal). The package of support tackles six constraints that were identified in all six countries as both cross-cutting and actionable: access to capital, technical and business skills, access to markets, social norms, psychosocial and aspirational constraints, and capacity to manage risk. Based on the most promising interventions gleaned from the international literature, local experiences, and the practical knowledge of various stakeholders who took part in the regional diagnostic and identification workshop, a package of accompanying measures was established. This regional impact evaluation will not only provide evidence on what works and what does not, but also, given its cross-country comparative nature, allow for a more nuanced understanding of what factors affect success and which impede it. Foundations of human capital Several SASPP countries are seeking to use their national social protection programs to extend provision of nutritional, health, and education support to the poorest families and improve human capital outcomes. The six Sahel countries top the world’s rankings in terms of child marriage, fertility, maternal and child mortality, proportion of children out of school (especially among girls), and unemployed/underemployed youth.  Apart from Senegal, their Human Capital Index values are all below the Sub-Saharan Africa average of 0.40. This thematic area first seeks to assess and quantify the negative impact of shocks on human capital in the Sahel. It then seeks to expand the evidence base on the determinants of malnutrition in the Sahel; expand evidence and learning on how to address demand-side constraints to nutrition and early childhood development; and rigorously evaluate the impacts of these measures, with a view to supporting investments in human capital. Initially conceived as a thematic area that would focus on nutrition and early childhood development, this area will broaden its orientation going forward to cover other key aspects of human capital such as women’s empowerment and inclusion. This theme will coordinate closely with the Sahel Women’s Empowerment and Demographics Project and explore potential regional interventions that can unlock the human capital constraints in the Sahel. 5 Plans for FY 2020 This chapter summarizes the initial plans for the next fiscal year (FY 2020), based on progress made to date and lessons learned. Section 5.1 details envisaged activities in each country during FY 2020, and section 5.2 provides an overview of planned regional programmatic activities. 5.1  Country program activities BURKINA FASO Recipient-executed activities. Recipient-executed activities will focus on further development of the social registry and implementation of a package of productive activities in the north of Burkina Faso. Currently, the social registry includes information on 134,168 households and 908,537 individuals. It is envisaged that the social registry will expand further. Burkina Faso is also in the process of strengthening its information system and will continue this process going forward. Currently, 17,891 beneficiaries in four provinces receive productive activities. It is envisaged that this will continue in FY 2020. Bank-executed activities. Bank-executed activities will focus on finalization of the targeting study, which is expected to be ready by the end of the calendar year. It will assess and compare household economy analysis, proxy means testing, and self-targeting methodologies on their effectiveness in selecting poor and vulnerable households. The World Bank will look to build consensus around the shock-response component through the development of response protocols. It will also seek to better align response in the Sahel region by piggy-backing on the WFP intervention covering 100,000 individuals. 46 Chapter 5  Plans for FY 2020 47 CHAD Recipient-executed activities. To capitalize on experience from the pilot and expand safety nets to include more poor households across the country, the team is working on a five-year ASP action plan. The project will close in December 2019; activities under the MDTF will close in September 2019. Bank-executed activities. The refugees and host communities’ agenda will be fully integrated into the ASP approach in view of possible new inflows of refugees. Additional financing for the refugees and host communities project is envisaged, which will include a scale-up of the social safety net. Based on the success of the social safety net project, the government of Chad made an official request to the World Bank to provide additional financing of $120 million to scale up the program. It is envisaged that the development and establishment of safety net systems will continue. This will include expansion of the USR across the country. Continuation of technical advice to government implementation entities and consolidation of the pilot safety nets and Refugees and Host Communities Support Project are planned. MALI Recipient-executed activities. In FY 2020, recipient-executed activities will prioritize completion of the implementation of public works. The labor-intensive public works effort experienced major delays, mostly due to procurement of materials and goods and renewal of contracts for implementing NGOs. Ninety-three projects started with community resources, and participants received one month’s payment (in Kolokani, Diéma, and Nioro), but the remainder of the materials were pending delivery. By December 2019, it is envisaged that 150 of 400 construction sites will be completed. Also, implementation of cash transfers will continue in FY 2020. Security challenges in the north of the country have affected delivery of cash transfers in FY 2019. Despite insecurity, 3,000 households received cash transfers in FY 2019 in Gao, Niafunke, and Youwarou. It is anticipated that implementation of cash transfers will continue in FY 2020. Bank-executed activities. In FY 2020, a strategy on scaling up safety nets in response to shocks will be developed. An international consultant has been recruited to develop a strategy for scaling up selected interventions in response to shocks. It is expected that the strategy will be available in FY 2020. Also, work on the development of a USR will continue in FY 2020. The government has renewed its commitment to proceed with an official launch of the USR by the end of 2019. The official MOUs for the use of the USR and the common questionnaire by other development partners and NGOs will be signed. 48 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 MAURITANIA Recipient-executed activities. The social registry will continue to be expanded throughout Mauritania. It is envisaged that the social registry database will include 175,000 poor households by June 2020. At the current pace, the objective of 200,000 households should be reached during the second half of 2020. Recipient- executed activities will also focus on continuing to support the Food Security Office’s implementation of the Elmaouna shock-responsive safety net program (fourth phase) and integration and harmonization with other humanitarian actors. The World Bank team and the government will prepare the new Mauritania Social Safety Net project (2020–25). This project will include a potential SASPP MDTF contribution and will support a specific component to strengthen the shock- responsive system for households vulnerable to climate shocks (i.e., support to the early warning system, financing strategy and tools, coordination, and the Elmaouna program). The expected Board date for this new project is February 2020. Bank-executed activities. Bank-executed activities for FY 2020 in Mauritania will aim to strengthen the ASP approach. ●● Support to the government in setting up the shock-response framework. This will include, among other activities, setting up a joint committee, preparation of draft decrees and regulatory decrees, a technical validation workshop of the proposed framework, and support for implementation of its mechanisms. ●● Development and implementation of response plans. Support to the framework document standard operating procedures for the elaboration of annual response plans; support to the development, coordination, and monitoring of the 2020 response; and support to joint activities within the joint WFP–World Bank action plan for 2019–20. ●● Strengthening early warning systems. The early warning system will be strengthened through support to promote and integrate the predictive model; support for the Food Security Monitoring Survey; and the establishment of triggers, capitalization, and lessons learned on the use of the social registry by humanitarian actors during the 2019 dry season. ●● Technical assistance for implementation of ASP principles in Mauritania. The World Bank is funding technical assistance to support (1) tools and planning of the social registry; (2) design, implementation, and monitoring of the Elmaouna shock-responsive safety net program; and (3) productive measures (implemented by the Tekavoul program). Chapter 5  Plans for FY 2020 49 ●● Following completion of a shock-responsive financing diagnostic in 2018, the World Bank team is working on a policy note on a shock financing strategy for food security. The policy note will highlight the risk profile in Mauritania, showcase the institutional and legal framework for emergency response, present financing mechanisms identified for emergency and disaster response, and estimate the cost to set up the appropriate financing tools. This analytical work will support the policy dialogue with the government on setting up a strategic shock financing framework, as well as around the relevant instruments. NIGER Recipient-executed activities. In FY 2020, recipient-executed activities will further strengthen ASP in Niger. At the institutional level, this will include support to further strengthen government leadership through support to the DN, as well as support to the institutionalization of the Safety Net Unit within the DN to ensure better coordination of safety net interventions. ASP systems will be strengthened through the improving the M&E system, and through a technical audit of the management information system used by the Safety Net Unit with the objective of upgrading the system to ensure more timely identification and payment of beneficiaries. Support will be provided to continue implementation of the USR by reinforcing both human and technical capacities of the USR technical team. The focus will be on building the macro structure of the USR while the data sharing and data using protocols are finalized. Additionally, the georeferenced database of all safety net interventions will be finalized. At the program level, accompanying measures as part of cash transfer and cash for work components will be implemented. Bank-executed activities. Bank-executed activities in FY 2020 will focus on developing a risk financing approach to enable timely response to shocks. This will include continuing support of the policy dialogue to strengthen the national safety net system. One of the main activities will be support of the ongoing dialogue to use proactive disaster risk financing approaches to enable early response to shocks based on objective triggers. As part of the Niger Adaptive Safety Nets Project 2, a risk financing mechanism will be put in place to enable timely provision of assistance in the aftermath of shocks. The project will also support policy dialogue on risk financing and shock-responsive safety nets with key stakeholders. Opportunities for leveraging financing from different sources will be explored to enable roll-out of the shock-response component to additional regions, and to enable response to multiple hazards. The main principles of ASP will be reflected in national policy documents. In FY 2020, support will be provided to further strengthen ASP at the policy and project levels. Based on recommendations from the 2008–17 public expenditure review on social protection, a roadmap of 50 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 activities will be defined. Additionally, support will be provided to the government in updating the National Social Protection Strategy. In September 2019, a workshop to define the main parameters of the shock-response pilot will be organized. To ensure proper implementation of project activities, a supervision mission will be conducted. Additional accompanying measures will be designed and supervised to strengthen poor and vulnerable households’ resilience. An impact evaluation will be supported to generate lessons learned. Finally, technical support to the DN will be provided to reinforce its capacity to manage information for decision making, strengthen the M&E system at the permanent secretary level, and continue supporting implementation of the USR. SENEGAL Recipient-executed activities. The Yook Kom Kom productive safety nets project will continue in FY 2020, and a new agriculture pilot project will be implemented. It is envisaged that activities will be completed and cash grants of the Yook Kom Kom extension project paid before the end of September/beginning of October 2019. The agriculture pilot will be implemented between June and September 2019. Additionally, the USR will be extended and updated, and a new communication tool for behavior change implemented. Data collection for the USR extension and update in eight regions will begin in September 2019. Implementation of the new communication tools for behavior change in two pilot regions will be initiated in November 2019. Bank-executed activities. Bank-executed activities for FY 2020 in Senegal will aim to strengthen the ASP approach. ●● Extension and update of the USR. This will include providing support to the government in extending and updating the USR in eight regions. Technical support will also be provided to the USR working group to improve collaboration between USR users for food-insecurity response. ●● Early warning systems, triggers, and disaster risk financing. The policy dialogue on early warning system indicators and triggering mechanisms, as well as the financing strategy for shock response, will continue during FY 2020. ●● Project implementation and evaluation. Support will be provided to implementation of the productive safety nets, as well as preparation for the endline of the PNBSF impact evaluation and Yook Kom Kom impact evaluations. ●● Pilot implementation. Launch of a pilot on new behavior change communication activities will be supported, and assistance provided for implementation of a Chapter 5  Plans for FY 2020 51 pilot project to target beneficiaries of subsidized agricultural inputs through the USR. Discussions to design a pilot to respond to floods will be initiated. ●● Impact evaluations of pilot projects. The evaluation report of the pilot to respond to fires will be disseminated and support will be provided to identify key steps to scale-up the pilot. An evaluation of the pilot to target beneficiaries of subsidized agricultural inputs through the USR will be conducted. The conclusions of the pilot evaluation will be used to continue the policy dialogue with the agriculture sector to increase the resilience of vulnerable households. ●● Dissemination of analytical work. A policy note on the equity of social spending and subsidies was drafted in January 2019 and will be disseminated. The thematic chapter of Senegal’s economic update focuses on ASP; this will be disseminated in FY 2020. ●● Building resilience of the poorest through support to the groundnuts value chain. Going forwards, it is envisaged that contributions will be made to discussions of the agriculture project aimed at reforming the groundnuts sector. 5.2  Regional programmatic activities A key function of the SASPP is to act as a convener to enhance regional policy dialogue. Moving forward, the SASPP seeks to further elevate the conversation on ASP in the Sahel countries by generating knowledge; convening stakeholders; and increasing cross-country collaboration, exchange, and learning. A key feature of the program is its ability to bring the six countries together to exchange knowledge and best practices with a view to establishing collaboration on these topics between governments. In the Sahel, many social protection systems are nascent, so there is an opportunity to link them with climate information and early action systems to improve protection and adaptation methods. However, increased collaboration among a broad range of stakeholders—as well as improved understanding of the roles of social protection and climate information—is needed to increase the predictive capability and early action of the humanitarian system. Increasing SASPP knowledge sharing and program visibility are a priority for FY 2020. The SASPP will generate regional knowledge products to compile the evidence learned from thematic analytical work. The advantage of the regional analytical program of the SASPP is that it allows generation and synthesis of evidence and learning that goes beyond the country level. The program seeks to develop learning products for the Sahel by theme, rather than country-specific 52 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 findings on each theme. For example, the program aims to develop a suite of policy notes, working papers, and subregional reports by theme, among other initiatives. ANALYSIS OF POVERTY, VULNERABILITY, AND RESILIENCE In FY 2020, a stock-taking exercise of existing analyses of risk and vulnerability in the Sahel undertaken in the first-phase of SASPP will be conducted. This exercise will complement existing data with new cross-country analysis using data from a standardized shock module implemented in all SASPP countries (with the exception of Mauritania) in 2018–19 as part of the West African Monetary and Economic Union household survey initiative. Where specialized data are available to undertake further country-specific household analysis to improve understanding of household responses to shocks (such as the Living Standard Measurement Study—Integrated Surveys on Agriculture data in Niger), this will also be done. Recommendations for the design and targeting of resilience-building interventions will be made on the basis of this work. A summary of the vulnerability exercise will be presented at a series of workshops. The SASPP will undertake a cross-country analysis on the seasonality and timing of shock impacts. The work will use the West African Monetary and Economic Union household survey data collected during the harvest and lean seasons of 2018–19 to quantify seasonality of income and consumption for rural and urban households in SASPP countries in the absence of regular safety net transfers and how this varies for different types of households. The analysis will also look at places within the Sahel that experienced worse than usual rainfall during the 2018 harvest to assess how this seasonal pattern of income and consumption was affected in the aftermath of a drought and how the seasonal impact of drought varies for different types of households. The SASPP will assess the conditions under which climate shocks affect welfare. This assessment will focus on the impact of climate shocks on food markets and conflict over water and the implications for design of social protection systems. This work will analyze market price, agroclimatic, and conflict databases to understand the impact of drought on prices and conflict. The conditions under which impacts are larger will be analyzed, as well as the degree to which government policies and donor interventions mitigate or exacerbate impact. The findings will be used to stimulate policy dialogue on the design of adaptive safety net programs beyond those immediately affected by a climatic shock. Issues raised in policy dialogue will be used to extend the work on this component in subsequent years. Chapter 5  Plans for FY 2020 53 SUSTAINABLE NATIONAL SOCIAL PROTECTION DELIVERY SYSTEMS In FY 2020, an assessment of social information systems, based on a forthcoming Inter-Agency Social Protection (ISPA) tool, will be undertaken jointly with partners in at least one country in the Sahel. The initiative is aimed at capturing a picture of the social registry, government-to-person payments, and foundational identification landscape in the Sahel and preparedness for delivery in adaptive and fragile contexts. A detailed schedule of systematic assessments for the Sahel over a three-year period will be established. Also under this thematic area in FY 2020, a workshop will be held for countries in the Sahel for regional knowledge sharing, technical training, and learning on social information systems, identification, and payments to enable shock-responsive and flexible delivery of benefits and services. SHOCK-RESPONSIVE SAFETY NETS To initiate the workstream related to early warning systems for Phase 2, a regional dialogue event on early warning systems is envisaged for FY 2020. The Sahel Regional Dialogue on Climate and Social Protection will bring together high-level stakeholders from social protection and climate disciplines in the region and beyond to share experiences, and help identify how social protection in the Sahel can make better use of climate information to influence the design, targeting, and scale-up of instruments that can anticipate and respond to shocks more effectively. Concurrently, a review of the use of early warning information and triggers for shock-responsive safety nets in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda will be initiated to investigate pertinent lessons for the Sahel engagements. In FY 2020, a study will be initiated to compare the cost-effectiveness associated with an early response through shock-responsive safety nets. There are several reasons that make early response cost effective. First, households that receive assistance early can avoid the use of harmful coping strategies, enabling them to protect their productive assets. Also, during crises, prices of food increase; an early response is typically associated with lower prices of food and lesser needs (Fitzgibbon 2013). This research will set out more fully the macroeconomic benefits of an early response to shocks through ASP systems. It will build on prior publications in this field (e.g., Cabot Venton et al. 2012). Through the end of 2019, an inception study will be undertaken applying a quantitative methodology in one of the SASPP countries to inform the remainder of the study through the end of FY 2020. 54 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 REFUGEES AND FORCED DISPLACEMENT In FY 2020, a conceptual framework/theory of change will be developed to map the manifestations of forced displacement on its causes and root drivers. The primary manifestation of forced displacement is nonvoluntary migration. Forces leading to this migration include different types of violence, as well as economic hardship and deprivation, both of which threaten human survival. Drivers of violence and hardship are diverse, and include, on the aggravating side, ethnic or religious divisions, political factors, and environmental causes; and, on the mitigating side, social cohesion and trust, civil and political participation, and mitigating policies including social protection programs. These drivers differ in their degree of endogeneity. The conceptual framework will also explore the available relevant scientific literature, especially for empirical evidence from the Sahel, and try to summarize it diagrammatically. It will be enriched through qualitative research in the region to identify local actors’ concepts of forced displacement and its causes and drivers. This work will include focus groups and interviews in two countries of the Sahel. A stock-taking exercise will be undertaken on refugee operations or refugee-inclusive operations active or under preparation in the Sahel and greater West Africa (Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo). This exercise will examine how the projects designed different elements of the service delivery chain of safety nets, in particular, regarding the inclusion of refugees. The definition of delivery as used here comprises targeting, registration, management information system, and payment, among other elements. This activity will also assess what implications the chosen design options have for Bank supervision and involvement. In addition, the activity will document the context in which each operation takes place to add further nuance and understanding to the conception and design of operations. In addition to qualitative context papers, a set of case studies will be developed describing in qualitative and quantitative detail the design of the subregion’s refugee operations along the delivery chain. PRODUCTIVE INCLUSION, LIVELIHOODS, AND RESILIENCE In addition to ongoing implementation and survey work, a complementary qualitative process evaluation will be fully launched in FY 2020 accompanied by a workshop. In partnership with Trickle Up, a qualitative process evaluation was launched in Niger in FY 2019. Evaluation tools were developed by joint Trickle Up–World Bank teams. Qualitative data collection is scheduled in Senegal later in 2019, in Mauritania in early 2020, and in Burkina Faso in mid-2020. The activity has already generated a substantial number of operational lessons within partner Chapter 5  Plans for FY 2020 55 governments and Bank teams alike. A workshop will be organized in 2020 to share the lessons gathered by the government teams and technical assistance providers, as well as through the M&E modules and process evaluation coordinated by the research team. The research team has planned and started to implement a follow-up phase for the impact evaluation. Follow-up survey instruments (including questionnaires and manuals) were designed, piloted, and finalized. A first follow-up survey was successfully implemented in Niger in March–April 2019. Follow-up data collection is being planned in Mauritania and Senegal. To achieve the greatest level of cross-country harmonization, the surveys are slated for the first quarter of 2020 in Mauritania and the third quarter of 2020 in Senegal. A second follow-up survey is being considered in Niger around the same time. Burkina will follow in the final quarter of 2020. FOUNDATIONS OF HUMAN CAPITAL In FY 2020, a stock-taking will be conducted of country data on malnutrition and evidence from nutrition-specific and -sensitive interventions supported by projects in the Sahel. This effort will build on work begun by World Bank Early Years fellowship recipients in 2018, ongoing cross-country household survey data analysis, and early findings from ongoing impact and process evaluations. It will complement this regional review with results from interventions in other high- malnutrition areas such as the Great Lakes to identify areas for experimentation about design and implementation (supervision and training of NGOs or other third-party providers, involvement of “influencers”), as well as areas that may need greater emphasis—such as access to water and sanitation (coordinating with the WASH experiment in Niger) and maternal depression. Given some of the specific features of the Sahel (recurrent climate shocks, fragility, high fertility), the team will also review the literature on shocks to map out potential pathways between those shocks, nutritional status and/or child development, and the potential and limits of cash transfers. Based on these reviews, the team will design an operational research program with country teams to incorporate lessons learned in the design of complementary measures, and design M&E instruments that will begin to fill in some of the knowledge gaps. 6 The SASPP results framework and targets This chapter details progress made in FY 2019 in achieving the targets set out in the SASPP results framework (appendix A). The following analysis is based on the overall targets and on the revision of targets agreed on at the beginning of the current calendar year. It specifies whether the FY 2019 targets were achieved for each indicator, providing a brief description where necessary to explain targets that were exceeded or not met. Overall achievement in FY 2019 was as follows: ●● For the targets of the 11 output indicators, 6 were exceeded in FY 2019, 3 were met, and 2 were not met. The indicators that were not met are Indicator 1.1 (Capacity of countries’ social protection systems to implement adaptive social protection programs) and Indicator 1.4 (Adaptation-related community assets created/rehabilitated through support by the trust fund) (see appendix A for more information). ●● For the targets of the four outcome indicators, one was exceeded, one was met, and two were not met. ●● For the targets of the two impact indicators, one was exceeded and one was met in FY 2019. Following is a by-indicator analysis. 56 Chapter 6  The SASPP results framework and targets 57 WB/DFID indicator Indicator Status Target Achievement Comments designation Spending on so- Met 0.6 0.6 Governments of the six countries WB Project Devel- cial protection, have respected their commitments opment Objective including govern- to invest in social protection. Indicator 1; DFID ment and donor Outcome Indicator 2 spending Capacity of coun- Not met 4.0 3.8 Important progress has been WB Project Devel- tries’ social pro- realized in all countries toward opment Objective tection systems strengthening capacity of social Indicator 2; DFID to implement ASP protection systems to implement Output Indicator 1.1 programs ASP programs. All countries met their objective except Burkina Faso, where, despite efforts by the World Bank to support consensus building around ASP and reinforc- ing the building blocks of a nation- al ASP system, some institutional and leadership issues among government entities negatively affected the final result. People benefiting Exceeded 1,902,970 1,958,026 This target was exceeded in all WB Project Devel- from ASP pro- countries except Niger and re- opment Objective grams supported mained stable in Senegal. Targets Indicator 3; DFID by the trust fund were generally exceeded because Outcome Indicator 1 the government-led project imple- mentation units have improved their capacities and are better able to implement programs as a result of World Bank capacity building. These new skills and capacities include fast targeting, agile budget planning, and fast-track payment systems with a switch to e-pay- ment in almost all the countries. Government staff Exceeded 998 1,012 Trainings mainly focused on cash WB Intermediate trained on social transfers, ASP systems, and tar- Results Indicator 3; protection policy, geting. DFID Outcome Out- delivery, and M&E put 1.5 through the trust fund Assessments of Exceeded 21 24 See appendix B for a list of the WB Intermediate poverty, climate published studies. Results Indicator 4; change risk, and DFID Output Indica- other vulnerabili- tor 2.1 ties commissioned by the trust fund Evaluations, as- Commis- Commis- Commis- See appendix B for a list of the WB Intermediate sessments, and sioned: sioned: 49 sioned: 57 published studies. Results Indicator 5; studies creating Exceeded DFID Output Indica- lessons from Pub- Published: Published: 62 tor 2.2 ASP programs lished: 56 supported by the Exceeded trust fund (continued ) 58 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 WB/DFID indicator Indicator Status Target Achievement Comments designation Knowledge ex- National: National: National: 51 Target numbers were exceeded in WB Intermediate change and dis- Exceeded 47 Burkina Faso, Niger, and Senegal. Results Indicator 6; semination activi- Regional: Regional: 5 Regional: 6 DFID Output Indica- ties supported by Met tor 2.4 the trust fund Number of house- Exceeded 82,341 92,311 There was a significant increase in WB Intermediate holds receiving number of people receiving cash Results Indicator 8; cash through transfers in Chad and Mauritania, DFID Output Indica- cash-based inter- less of an increase in Burkina Faso tor 1.3 ventions (transfers and Mali, a slight drop in Niger, and public works) and a larger drop in Senegal due supported by the to delays in payment of the pro- trust fund ductive accompanying measures. The overall number of people ben- efiting from cash-based programs increased by about 3,000. Adaptation-related Not met 760 394 Mali and Niger did not meet their WB Intermediate community assets targets. Progress in these coun- Results Indicator 10; created/rehabil- tries on this indicator was hin- DFID Output Indica- itated through dered by delays on the part of the tor 1.4 support by the government implementing unit in trust fund implementing activities. Government-led Met 11 11 All countries have met their tar- WB Intermediate social protection gets. Results Indicator 11; programs that DFID Output Indica- incorporate ad- tor 1.2 aptation and risk reduction Percentage of chil- Met 24.3 24.3 The share of underweight children WB Impact Indica- dren under 5 who remained relatively stable over the tor 1; DFID Impact are underweight year. Indicator 1 Number of Exceeded 12.1 million 12.1 million Despite a challenging situation WB Impact Indica- food-insecure due to forced migration correlated tor 2; DFID Impact people to fast-deteriorating security con- Indicator 3 ditions in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, the share of food-insecure people—based on external data sources—remained relatively sta- ble, with a slight decrease in Mali. The extent to Not met 4.2 3.8 Fast-deteriorating security condi- WB Outcome Indi- which planned tions led to an increased number cator 1; DFID Out- interventions of internally displaced people in come Indicator 4 are likely to have Burkina Faso and Mail, and to ref- transformational ugees in Burkina Faso, which has impact affected program areas and the delivery of cash transfers, thereby reducing the effectiveness and transformational impact of the re- spective programs. (continued ) Chapter 6  The SASPP results framework and targets 59 WB/DFID indicator Indicator Status Target Achievement Comments designation Effectiveness of Not met 3.5 3.3 An absence of consensus at the WB Outcome Indi- national social national level due to inadequate cator 2; DFID Out- protection sys- institutional arrangements around come Indicator 3 tems to address social safety nets created lead- climate adaptation ership issues and led to a lower and disaster risk score for Burkina Faso social management protection systems in addressing climate change and disaster risk management. Government-led Met 9 9 All countries have met their tar- WB Output Indica- projects sup- gets. Studies commissioned un- tor 1; DFID Output ported by this der the SASPP have informed a Indicator 2.3 trust fund whose range of program design features design and/or in all countries, ensuring evi- implementation dence-based design. approaches are informed by re- cent research and evidence Strategic deploy- Exceeded 7 14 Eight new staff members joined WB Output Indica- ments to key mul- the program in the country offices tor 2; DFID Output tilateral/regional and headquarters, for a total of 14 Indicator 3.1 institutions staff fully funded by the program. Evidence of stra- Met 4 4 All countries have met their tar- WB Output Indica- tegic coordination gets. The World Bank used its tor 3; DFID Output between key convening power to bring different Indicator 3.2 donors and mul- stakeholders in countries around tilateral/regional thematic areas such as the social institutions registry, the shock responsive- ness of social safety nets, target- ing, and—more broadly—social safety nets. The analytical work and deployed technical expertise supported this agenda. In almost all countries, coordination frame- works around these topics exist or are being finalized. Note: WB = World Bank. ■ = not met; ■ = met; ■ = exceeded. 7 Financial report 7.1 Status of donor contributions and grant implementation As of August 2019, development partner contributions to the SASPP totaled $117,597,669. Table 7.1 shows the breakdown of the SASPP MDTF by development partner: £47.6  million (about $65.5  million) from DFID, €6.0 million (about $7.0 million) from the AFD, $1.35 million from Wellspring Philanthropic Fund (WPF) and €50.0 million from the BMZ (about $45.5 million). Table 7.1  Status of development partner contributions as of August 2019 Contribution Contribution Total contribu- Contribution amount Contribution unpaid Contribution tion paid and Donor currency (donor currency) paid ($) (donor currency) unpaid ($) unpaid ($) DFID £ 47,000,000 63,046,164 1,000,000 1,213,950 64,260,114 DFID £ 600,000 759,356 759,356 WPF $ 1,350,000 1,350,000 1,350,000 AFD € 6,000,000 7,026,000 7,026,000 BMZ € 50,000,000 45,416,150 10,000,000 11,068,500 56,484,650 Total 117,597,670 12,282,450 129,880,120 Note: Installments paid in currencies of contributions are valued at the exchange rates in effect at the time the funds are received and the date they are converted to U.S. dollars. 7.2 Status by type of grant As of August 2019, the SASPP team had approved a total of about $70.7  million, covering both Bank- and recipient-executed activities. Table 7.2 shows the status of allocations, disbursements, and commitments by grant type and country. The total disbursement amount recorded was $55.1 million, compared to $36.7 million in 2018, covering both recipient- and Bank-executed trust fund activities. The increase in the actual disbursement amount is significant, 60 Chapter 7  Financial report 61 considering that all Bank- and recipient-executed trust funds are activated, and implementation of activities is in full swing. Table 7.2  SASPP financial status by type of grant Grant amount Disbursement to Country Fund ($) date ($) Bank executed SASPP Regional Coordination Management and Administration 699,000 698,334 Livelihoods Experiment 536,000 425,170 Managing Social Protection Activities in the Sahel 1,891,385 1,779,560 Strengthening Social Protection Systems through Forecast- 500,000 192,289 based Financing in the Sahel Regional Supporting Knowledge and TA for Adaptive Social Protection in 4,300,000 2,507,417 the Sahel WFP—Research on Productive Components, Livelihoods and 1,350,000 649,880 Resilience Total 9,276,385 6,252,649 Adaptive Social Protection in the Sahel: Burkina Faso Country 1,775,000 1,318,865 Program Burkina Faso Adaptive Social Protection in the Sahel: Burkina Faso Country 200,000 196,165 Program – Supervision Total 1,975,000 1,515,029 Chad: Support to Government in Establishing an Adaptive, Effi- 1,397,000 1,393,715 cient, and Responsive National Social Safety Net Chad Supervision of Chad Safety Nets Project 200,000 196,165 TA in Support of the Chad Safety Nets Project (AFD) 250,000 149,936 Total 1,847,000 1,739,815 Adaptive Social Protection for Resilience in Mali 1,100,000 982,406 Mali Total 1,100,000 982,406 Adaptive Social Protection for Mauritania 900,000 899,966 Adaptive Social Protection for Mauritania—Supervision 600,000 586,694 Adaptive Social Protection NLTA in Mauritania 250,000 102,737 Mauritania Knowledge Creation and Technical Assistance for Adaptive So- 200,000 15,288 cial Protection in Mauritania Total 1,950,000 1,604,685 Adaptive Social Protection for Resilience in Niger 2,660,000 2,248,852 Niger Bank Supervision for Adaptive Social Safety Nets Project 400,000 399,282 Total 3,310,000 2,648,134 Senegal Adaptive Social Protection—NLTA 1,500,000 1,326,598 Senegal Senegal Adaptive Social Protection—Supervision 450,000 431,288 Total 1,950,000 1,757,886 Total 21,408,385 16,500,604 (continued ) 62 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 Table 7.2  SASPP financial status by type of grant (continued Grant amount Disbursement to Country Fund ($) date ($) Recipient executed Burkina Faso Adaptive Safety Net – Burkina Faso Additional Financing 6,000,000 3,781,356 Chad Chad Safety Nets Trust Fund 5,000,000 3,707,907 Emergency Safety Nets Project (Jigisemejiri) 2,400,000 849,372 Mali Safety Nets Project (Jigisemejiri) Additional Financing 10,000,000 7,502,724 Adaptive Social Protection Support to Mauritania 4,000,000 3,814,438 Mauritania Recipient-Executed Trust Fund – AFD Additional Financing 2,300,000 700,000 Niger Adaptive Social Safety Nets Project 8,500,000 8,500,000 Senegal Senegal Adaptive Social Protection – Support to Senegal 11,050,000 9,783,876 Total 49,250,000 38,639,674 Grand total 70,658,384 55,140,278 Note: Disbursements represent the cash payment to a recipient or vendor based on a commitment by the Bank. The Bank provides oversight and supervision over implementation. Commitments are the obligations of the trust fund at the grant level to provide funds. They are recorded in full amounts in the system, pending disbursement against the allocated goods and services. The commitments also include funds allocated against recipient-executed activities. In accordance with the Administrative Agreement, the Bank shall fur- nish to the Donor current financial information relating to receipts, disbursements and fund balance with respect to the Contributions received via the World Bank’s Development Partner Center (DPC) secure website. The Bank shall provide the donors an annual single audit reporting, within 6 months following the end of each Bank fiscal year, which starts on July 1 and ends on June 30 of each year. APPENDIX A Results framework and monitoring Table A.1  World Bank results indicators—project development objective level and intermediate results Base- Actual Actual Planned Updated Actual End Indicator name Category line FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019+ FY 2019 FY 2019 target Project development objective indicators Indicator 1: Spending on % point n.a. 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 social protection, including increase government and donor spending [DFID Outcome % 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Indicator 2] Indicator 2: Capacity of countries’ social protec- tion systems to implement 1.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.8 4.0 adaptive social protection programs [Output 1.1] Indicator 3: People bene- Total 0 1,484,530 1,806,337 1,887,496 1,902,970 1,958,026 1,887,496 fiting from adaptive social Total (f) 0 742,265 905,617 940,368 948,118 980,759 940,368 protection programs sup- ported by the trust fund Direct 0 336,335 405,479 434,291 441,270 433,651 434,291 [DFID Outcome Indicator 1] Direct (f) 0 168,274 207,903 225,671 226,433 221,750 225,671 Indirect 0 1,148,195 1,400,858 1,453,205 1,461,700 1,524,375 1,453,205 Intermediate results indicators Indicator 1. Just-in-time technical assistance activi- 0 25 33 32 38 38 32 ties supported by the trust fund Indicator 2. Improved early warning systems and seasonal forecasts (to 0 0 3 5 5 5 5 anticipate and prepare for climate-related and other shocks) Indicator 3. Government staff trained on social pro- tection policy, delivery and 0 607 879 750 998 1,012 750 M&E through the trust fund [DFID Output Indicator 1.5] (continued ) 63 64 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 Table A.1  World Bank results indicators—project development objective level and intermediate results (continued ) Base- Actual Actual Planned Updated Actual End Indicator name Category line FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019+ FY 2019 FY 2019 target Indicator 4. Assessments of poverty, climate change risk and other vulnerabili- 0 17 21 15 21 24 15 ties commissioned by the trust fund [DFID Output Indicator 2.1] Indicator 5. Evaluations, Commis- 0 29 49 31 49 62 31 assessments and stud- sioned ies creating lessons from adaptive social protection programs supported by Published 0 27 54 27 56 66 27 the trust fund [DFID Output Indicator 2.2] Indicator 6. Knowledge National 0 32 47 22 47 51 22 exchange and dissemina- tion activities supported by the trust fund [DFID Output Regional 0 2 4 4 5 6 4 Indicator 2.4] Indicator 7. Programs sup- 0 10 10 9 12 14 9 ported by the trust fund Indicator 8. Number of CT 0 7,208 50,280 52,441 66,227 62,855 52,441 households receiving cash PW 0 18,700 26,000 32,900 42,356 29,456 32,900 through cash based inter- ventions (Transfers and PW) Total (hh) 0 31,035 76,280 82,341 108,583 92,311 82,341 supported by the trust fund Total (ppl) 0 268,630 534,876 515,046 615,554 627,993 515,046 (DFID Output Indicator 1.3) Total (f) 0 134,315 270,740 258,143 311,883 314,830 258,143 Indicator 9. People ben- efiting from productive measures or trained on ba- sic skills (such as sanitary 0 327,990 565,721 400,484 402,284 598,921 400,484 health practices and nutri- tion awareness programs) supported by the trust fund Indicator 10. Adaptation re- lated community assets cre- ated/rehabilitated through 0 135 319 810 760 394 810 support by the trust fund [DFID Output 1.4] Indicator 11: Government led social protection pro- grams that incorporate ad- 0 10 11 11 11 11 11 aptation and risk reduction [DFID Output 1.2] Note: n.a. = not applicable; CT = cash transfer; PW = public works; f = female; hh = household. End target is December 2019. Numbers provided are based on the latest available data, which vary for each country. It is important to highlight and acknowledge that the qual- ity of these data is poor. Expenditure monitoring systems in the Sahel are weak, and one of the aims of the program is to improve these systems in order to obtain accurate expenditure data on social protection. Once these improved systems are in place, numbers may be revised. Appendix A  Results framework and monitoring 65 Table A.2  DFID results indicators—impact, outcome, and output Cumulative target values Actual FY Actual FY Planned Updated Actual End Indicator name Baseline 2017 2018 FY 2019+ FY 2019 FY 2019 target Impact indicators Indicator 1: Percentage of children under 5 who are underweight (mod- 24.0 25.8 23.6 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 erate and severe malnutrition) [DFID Impact Indicator 1] Indicator 2: Number of food inse- cure people [DFID Impact Indica- 14.5 13.0 14.4 12.9 12.1 12.0 12.9 tor 3] (in millions) Indicator 3: Percentage of house- holds using negative coping strategies as a response to shocks [DFID Impact Indicator 2] Outcome indicators Indicator 1: Extent to which planned interventions are likely to 1.8 3.0 3.8 4.2 4.2 3.8 4.2 have transformational impact [DFID Outcome Indicator 4] Indicator 2: Effectiveness of na- tional SP systems to address CA 1.0 2.5 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.5 and DRM [DFID Outcome Indicator 3] Output indicators Indicator 1: Government-led proj- ects supported by this Trust Fund whose design and/or implementa- 0 8 9 9 9 9 9 tion approaches are informed by recent research and evidence [DFID Output Indicator 2.3] Indicator 2: Strategic deployments to key multilateral/regional institu- 0 7 7 7 7 14 7 tions [DFID Output Indicator 3.1] Indicator 3: Evidence of strategic coordination between key donors 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 and multilateral/regional institutions [DFID Output Indicator 3.2] Note: Numbers provided are based on the latest available data, which vary for each country. APPENDIX B Publications The following table lists studies, assessments, reports, and evaluations published by the country programs. Country Title The Way Forward for Social Safety Nets in Burkina Faso (abstract and full report) Social Safety Nets Assessments Burkina Targeting Efficiency Comparison of Proxy Means Testing and Household Economy Analysis Faso Burkina Faso Poverty and Vulnerability Analysis Qualitative Study on Risk and Resource-Sharing in Polygamous Households in the North Region of Burkina Faso Évaluation préliminaire pour la conception des mesures d’accompagnement dans le cadre du Projet Pilote des Filets Sociaux au Tchad Manuel du Registre Social Unifié (RSU) Safety Nets Mapping Developing an Identity Management Framework in Support of Social Protection in Chad Identification of the Poor for the Social Safety Nets Pilot Project Chad Vulnerability in Chad Social Dynamics of Poverty and Vulnerability: A Qualitative Analysis The Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) of the Safety Nets Project Study Summarizing Lessons on Poverty Dynamics from a Quantitative and Qualitative Perspective, and the State of Social Safety Nets A Payment Landscape Assessment Adaptive Cash Transfers Targeting Methodology Évaluation Fonctionnelle et Organisationnelle des Programmes a Haute intensité de Main d’œuvre au Mali Étude pour la création d’un répertoire de travaux HIMO pour informer le projet Jigisemejiri Étude qualitative sur les contraintes à l’emploi productif au Mali Programme de protection sociale Mali adaptative au Sahel Étude comparative des différentes méthodes de ciblage utilisées dans le cercle de Gao Public Expenditure Review (continued ) 66 Appendix B  Publications 67 Country Title Analyse des déterminants de la vulnérabilité des systèmes pastoraux et leur implication sur les ménages pastoraux et le travail des enfants dans l’Assaba, le Guidimakha, le Hodh El Chargui et le Hodh El Gharbi Financement du risque des catastrophes Examen diagnostic Mauritania Cartes de la pauvreté Étude et Guide méthodologique pour l’utilisation du Registre Social dans le cadre de la réponse aux chocs Early Warning System in Mauritania and Links with Social Protection Bridging Humanitarian Assistance and Social Protection Systems: Mauritania Case Study Review of the Public Expenditures in Social Protection in Niger Évaluation de processus de mise en œuvre du volet comportemental Évaluation du processus de mise en œuvre du cash for work Note technique sur le choix des zone pour le pilote de réponse au chocs Note technique sur le choix du déclencheur pour la réponse aux chocs Évaluation du processus de mise en œuvre des activités d’accompagnement productif Diagnostics of Structure and Fiscal Sustainability of Social Protection and Labor Expenditure in Niger Étude sur la gestion de l’information par le DNPGCA: diagnostic du dispositif de suivi-évaluation Niger Étude sur la gestion de l’information par le DNPGCA: état des lieux pour l’amélioration des outils de gestion de l’information sur les crises et les programmes de filets sociaux Strengthening Social Protection Systems through Forecast-Based Early Action in the Adaptive Social Protection in the Sahel (ASPP) Evaluation of CFW Microproject Impact Evaluation of Pilot Program Retrospective Evaluation of Targeting Methodologies Qualitative Study on Constraints to Productive Employment WASH and Poverty Evaluation of the Pilot to Respond to Fires Senegal Economic Update Thematic Part on Adaptive Social Protection Note on the Equity and Efficiency of Social Spending and Subsidies in Senegal Institutionnalisation des registres sociaux et programmes de transferts monétaires en Amérique latine: Recommandations pour le Sénégal Proposition d’Indicateurs et de Seuils de déclenchement pour la réponse à l’insécurité alimentaire au Senegal Sénégal Policy note: Indicative Financial Cost of Expanding Shock-Responsive Safety Nets in Senegal Sénégal: comment utiliser la protection sociale adaptative pour répondre efficacement aux chocs – le cas pratique de la réponse à l’insécurité alimentaire? Évaluation quantitative du processus de mise à jour et d’extension du registre social unique Comparative of Two Targeting Methodologies: The Unique Registry and The Household Economy Analysis (continued ) 68 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 Country Title Comparative Analysis of Social Assistance Beneficiary Profiles Review of Public Work Programs in Senegal Stock-Take of Resilience Projects in Senegal to Inform the ASP Analysis of Targeting Methodology of the Unique Registry Process Evaluation of the PNBSF Project (2017) Review of Public Works and Productive Project Experience in Senegal Senegal PER Senegal Concluding/Summary Note of the 3 Studies on PNBSF, Public Works, and Productive Project Experience 2 Qualitative Evaluations of Pilot Project 2017 (2018) Evaluation of 2018 Food Response (2019) Vulnerability to Shocks in Senegal: A Multidimensional Analysis Profile of Households Vulnerable to Shocks based on a Macroeconomic Analysis APPENDIX C Conceptual framework for adaptive social protection This appendix delineates the SASPP conceptual framework. The framework is comprised of five core building blocks—government leadership, institutional arrangements, data and information, programs and their delivery systems, and finance—that together constitute pathways toward developing a more adaptive social protection system. In delineating ASP from regular social protection, it is necessary to ask which aspects are particular to ASP that are not part of a regular social protection system. To address this question, three concepts were developed: principles, fundamentals, and deltas: ●● Principles. Within each building block, the principles describe the relevance of the building block to ASP overall; they thus capture its contribution to ASP. ●● Fundamentals. Fundamentals describe the basic features of any social protection system, which thus form the basis of an adaptive system through modification and new approaches. Fundamentals refer to the core components that enable social protection systems, including, for instance, social protection policies and institutions, safety net programs, and information systems such as social registries. ●● Deltas. Based on the fundamentals, deltas describe the features of ASP systems that are typically not present in regular social protection systems— that is, what’s different compared with the fundamentals. The deltas enable the social protection system to build resilience and respond to shocks—creating an adaptive system capable of assisting poor and vulnerable households in managing the impacts of covariate shocks. 69 70 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 Attribute Description 1. Government leadership Government leadership and ownership of the ASP agenda is a prerequisite to the development of ASP, internalizing the responsibility to manage the risks from covariate shocks and assist vulnerable households, and ultimately to develop an ASP system. While hard to quantify or measure, leadership can be evidenced by the following: Principles • The identification of such priorities and objectives in high-level and sectoral strategies, plans, and policies • The presence of appropriate financial commitments • The establishment of mechanisms to hold government leadership accountable for these policy and financial commitments 1. In alignment with high-level government objectives and development plans, the development and institutionalization of social protection sector policies and strategies Fundamentals 2. A long-term, sustainable budget allocation for social protection (from government sources and development partners) 1. Setting high-level objectives: a. Recognition in high-level policies and strategies of the role of ASP in responding to shocks and building resilience b. Recognition in high-level policies, strategies, and plans of social protection as a core compo- nent of a government strategy to build household resilience to shocks, including in the following: • Social protection: Social protection policies, plans, and strategies reflect the role of ASP in relation to covariate shocks and set out the responsibility and commitment of the sector • DRM:a As appropriate, recognition in DRM policies, strategies, and plans of the role of ASP in disasters/shocks • Climate change adaptation: As appropriate, recognition in climate change adaptation poli- Deltas cies, strategies, and plans of the role of ASP in preparing and responding to climate change • Humanitarian and partner strategies: The role of ASP is articulated and reflected in part- ners’ strategies and understanding of respective roles and responsibilities within national di- saster response plans (donor, UN, NGO, etc.) policies and programs in the country, in line with the government’s priorities and objectives as listed here • Policy and strategic coherence: Cross-referencing the role of ASP in building resilience and responding to shocks, relative to other sectors and programs, in these strategies to pro- mote strategic coherence and institutional coordination 2. In addition to securing predictable funding for social protection, similar long-term government finan- cial commitment to ASP—in particular, through planning, preparing, and prepositioning resources to respond to shocks and nonregular needs, including through social protection (see also building block 5, finance; and components related to accountability in the remaining three building blocks) 2. Institutional arrangements ASP involves myriad actors to build household resilience and respond to shocks, many of which may not be traditional partners with the social protection sector (e.g., DRM and food security agencies), requiring a high degree of coordination around shared objectives. Similarly, at an implementation level, ASP requires investment in additional capacity at all levels of government. Principles Existing institutions may be able to advance the ASP agenda, or ASP may require the formation of new in- stitutions or institutional reform, which would be mandated to oversee, coordinate, and/or deliver ASP. Given the Sahelian context, partnerships with nongovernment actors will be critical in most cases for building household resilience and responding to shocks at scale. (continued ) Appendix C  Conceptual framework for adaptive social protection 71 Attribute Description Coordination among relevant government institutions in the implementation of social protection programs: 1. Creating partnerships to deliver social protection in coordination with nongovernment actors Fundamentals 2. Investment in capacity (including human and physical resources) for implementing social protec- tion programs 3. Strengthening institutional architecture and coordination for social protection a. Promoting coordination and cooperation between social protection and DRM staff at all lev- els of government to support shock response (central/regional/local) b. Coordination and cooperation with humanitarian actors in support of the development and implementation of ASP, including agreement on their complementary roles c. Coordination between sectors, including agriculture, water, etc., to strengthen resilience, includ- ing through the following: • Establishment or participation of ASP working groups with cross-representation of national and international partners—DRM, climate change, food security, agriculture, humanitarian, NGOs, etc.—as relevant, and integrated into existing working groups or coordination structures (social protection sectoral working groups) • As part of a broader social protection implementation manual, develop and implement a shared response plan detailing the standard operating procedures/roles and responsibilities in preparedness and response across actors (ministries, departments, and agencies, including social protection, and external partners) based on comparative advantages Deltas • Sign agreements and MOUs to create partnerships and define terms of cooperation be- tween government, donors, and/or humanitarian agencies on the ASP agenda d. Invest in additional physical and human resources to implement ASP: resilience-building initia- tives and response programs, at national and local levels of government, with the support of other ministries e. Put in place procedures for “surge capacity” to quickly deliver support after a shock either within government systems or by drawing on NGOs/the humanitarian community f. Ensure accountability of government staff for the delivery of effective ASP g. Strengthen institutional architecture to enable the delivery of ASP, creating new institutions, reforming departments within ministries, and reforming ministries to merge functions and man- dates, as appropriate h. Improve coordination across decentralized levels of government to support effective imple- mentation i. Strengthen accountability systems and structures of the social protection system to include the ASP elements 3. Data and information New information and analyses are required to better understand risk and vulnerability as a basis for program design and implementation: who is affected by shocks, how frequently, who among these is most in need of assistance, how much assistance is required, etc. Principles Relatedly, a stronger evidence base on the effectiveness of ASP-related interventions is required to guide future implementation. • Generate or leverage analysis of poverty and vulnerability to inform the design of social protection programs • Develop a social registry with increasing coverage capturing beneficiaries and nonbeneficiaries of social protection, to be used as a tool for including households in social programs Fundamentals • National ID—unique identifiers and civil registry and vital statistics linked to social registry where it exists or is being developed • Invest in M&E to inform program design and adjustment and to empirically capture the impact pro- grams are making among beneficiaries (continued ) 72 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 Attribute Description a. Integrate spatial risk and vulnerability data with household poverty data to identify hotspot areas and households that are especially vulnerable to shocks, informing financial estimation of needs, appropriate preparedness measures, program design parameters, etc. b. Collect and analyze early warning information to inform the need to respond to shocks through social protection systems, including building a shared understanding of early warning data (as the basis for decision making) across ministries and development partners c. Draw on these information sources to determine eligibility criteria for households to receive support from ASP programs and aligned humanitarian interventions—i.e., harmonized targeting processes (see also building block 4, programs and their delivery systems) d. Establish (or expand) data sharing platforms and protocols that enable different ASP stakehold- ers to access poverty, vulnerability, and hazard data, drawing on international best practice and in accordance with minimum standards e. In advance of universal coverage of the social registry, ensure specific and intentional inclusion into the social registry of poor households that are identified as being exposed to shocks f. In advance of universal coverage of the social registry, ensure specific and intentional inclusion into the social registry of nonpoor households that are identified as vulnerable to shocks g. Partners develop and use a harmonized data collection tool in coordination with the social reg- Deltas istry h. Ensure the registry is regularly updated (especially in highest-risk areas and among shock-affect- ed households, reflecting change in status/well-being) i. Establish social registry data sharing protocols that enable different ASP stakeholders to access the household data and ensure their appropriate use across sectors and respective pro- grams to promote coordination Program level: j. Develop/strengthen government multiprogram monitoring tools across all systems, programs, and instruments, including humanitarian/nongovernment, as a tool for coordination (see building block 2, institutional arrangements) and accountability Household-level: k. Invest in post-shock household monitoring capability to assess post-shock household needs, to inform shock-responsive program implementation and adjustment l. Invest in evaluation of implementation and impact of ASP interventions on household resilience and of the effectiveness of social protection shock responses in mitigating the impact on house- hold and intra-household vulnerability and well-being m. Promote the use of M&E data to inform program design and management 4. Programs and their delivery systems Based on an understanding of risk and vulnerability, safety net programs are designed and prepared Principles to be able to meet household needs, building household resilience before a shock and protecting well-being after a shock. Design and implement safety net programs such as cash transfers or public works with the objective Fundamentals of reducing long-term chronic poverty, and aligned along a common delivery chain whose processes can be summarized as “assess,” “decide,” and “implement.” (continued ) Appendix C  Conceptual framework for adaptive social protection 73 Attribute Description a. Innovations in program design to build resilience, including through cash plus, and climate-sen- sitive public works among households identified at highest risk of shock (see building block 3, data and information) with the aim of improving the ability of those households to withstand the impact of shocks over time b. Selection of innovations would be carried out in response to the objectives and desired impact, as well as the risk and vulnerability context, drawing on available evidence and analytical work to inform design and assessment of value for money c. Innovations should be informed by best practice, including the need for grievance and redress mechanisms Design features/options to further invest in household capacities: • Income-generating activities/productive inclusion ——Financial inclusion (improved access to savings; integration into formal financial system, i.e., banks, for men and women) ——Livelihood support (training and coaching to improve skills; asset transfers; support to access public services, for men and women) • Accompanying measures: Human capital accumulation through accompanying measures and promoting the use of health and education services among the poorest, including addressing gender inequality and discriminatory social norms; communications with beneficiaries regarding information and strategies for household climate adaptation • Community asset creation through public works that address the underlaying causes of vul- nerability in communities; e.g., multiyear watershed management, soil degradation, and regreen- ing approaches in climate/disaster hotspot areas Design features/options to build systems and programs that respond to shocks: Deltas • Development of shock-responsive social protection programs that accelerate the provision of support, with the aim of providing these even before the shock occurs ——Planned and prepared vertical expansion (increased amounts or more frequent payments to existing beneficiaries) of flagship safety net program(s) ——Planned and prepared horizontal expansion (to additional households) of flagship safety net program(s) ——Development of stand-alone emergency response program with similar features, leveraging underlying social protection systems for delivery (“piggy-backing”) ——Developed in alignment with other government response programs and humanitarian pro- grams and systems (see building block 2, institutional arrangements) • Adjustments made along the delivery chain to processes that facilitate responsiveness in the “assess,” “decide,” and “implement” phases, including, but not limited to the following: ——Assess: Adapted methodologies for identifying chronic and acute need (proxy means testing, community-based targeting, categorical, geographic, household economy analysis) to identify temporary needs discussed, assessed and tested ——Decide: Common and coordinated process on eligibility criteria and setting transfer values, under government leadership; triggers developed, as appropriate, including through linkages to early warning system, rainfall and vegetation indexes, conflict monitoring, etc., to improve timeliness and early action (see building block 2, institutional arrangements) —— Implement: Prepare payment system to deliver cash transfers to households after a shock (e.g., by creating bank/mobile money accounts for potential beneficiaries in advance; preparing appropri- ate payment service provider contracts that enable adjustment versus business as usual, e.g., for vertical or horizontal expansion); develop and harmonize grievance redress mechanisms between social protection and humanitarian actors to increase efficiency and address targeting errors Reflecting the above, appropriate programmatic operation manuals developed to guide the imple- mentation of shock-response programs. (continued ) 74 Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program  Annual Report 2019 Attribute Description 5. Finance ASP implies different financing burdens for governments to address. Resilience building requires long-term, sustainable financing commitments to support such initiatives. Principles For response, finance must be disbursed quickly through responsive programs to be delivered in a timely manner to beneficiaries; this can be achieved through preplanning and prepositioning of resources that are linked to responsive programs. • Long-term, sustainable financing for social protection from government allocations or through Fundamentals multi-annual commitments from development partners • Ensuring cost-effectiveness of social protection interventions a. Utilizing risk and vulnerability analysis (see building block 3, data and information), estimate costs/contingent liabilities of predicted shocks through a social protection response b. Accordingly, prepare a financing strategy to cover those costs through risk layering (i.e., the se- quencing of financial instruments that respond to risks of differing likely magnitudes and frequen- cy), as appropriate and feasible. c. Based on this strategy, link appropriate financing instruments to a responsive social protection program to ensure they can respond swiftly (e.g., contingent credit, contingency budget, insur- ance, sovereign disaster risk insurance, and humanitarian financing) Deltas d. Based on this strategy, lobby for governments to allocate additional resources and grow the fiscal space for ASP e. Create response triggers for the rapid disbursement of financing following shocks—e.g., the au- tomatic release of funds when a normalized difference vegetation index hits a given threshold (see also building block 4, programs and their delivery systems) f. Develop studies on cost-effectiveness and value for money of ASP interventions, including the appropriate use of various financial instruments, to inform budgeting for social protection (the monetary costs of early versus late response, cost-benefit of resilience versus response, etc.) a. Disaster risk management (DRM) is here used to refer to the agency (sector/policy) that is responsible for DRM (including early warn- ing) as well as emergency needs that arise from droughts and other shocks such as forced displacement. This may be more than one agency, but DRM is used throughout for simplicity. References Cabot Venton, Courtenay, Catherine Fitzgibbon, Tenna Shitarek, Lorraine Coulter, and Olivia Dooley. 2012. “The Economics of Early Response and Disaster Resilience: Lessons from Kenya and Ethiopia.” Economics of Resilience Final Report. Climate Centre. 2018. “UN: Sahel Region One of the Most Vulnerable to Climate Change.” Website article. 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World Bank, Washington, DC. —. 2018c. “Chad—Refugees and Host Communities Support Project.” World Bank, Washington, DC. —. 2018d. “Systematic Country Diagnostic of Senegal.” World Bank, Washington, DC. —. 2019. “Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program. The Adaptive Building Blocks: A Framework.” Revised draft. World Bank, Washington, DC.