WORLDBANKGROUP | D QRI5KPROFILES EROPEANDCENTRALA5IA(ECA) AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE GDP $1.2 trillion* Russian Federation oPouain14mlin T he Russian Federation's re ainder generated by industzy shown in the table, the prov- one at greatest riskofearth- population and economy are and agriculture making a small ince at greatest risk of floods is quakes is SokhalinskW Qblast. exposed to earthquakes and contribution. The Russian Federa- Adeygeya Republic, and the floods, with floods posing the greater tion's per capita GDP was $8,140. at greatest risk of earthqydl s risk. The model results for pres- Kamchatskaya Oblast I olute 0 ent-day risk shown in this risk profile This map displays GDP by prov- terms, the province at test are based on population and gross ince in the Russian Federation, riskoffloodsisMos Indthe domestic product (GDP) estimates with greater color saturation for 2015. The estimated damage indicating greater GDP within a caused by historical events is inflated province. The blue circles indicate 0 to 2015 US dollars. the riskofexperiencingfloods and the orange circles the risk of 0 Close to 75 percent of the Russian earthquakes in terms of normal- Federation's population lives in ized annual average of affected urban environments. The country's GDR The largest circles represent GDP was approximately US$1.2 tril- the greatest normalized risk. The lion in 2015, with nearly 60 percent risk is estimated using flood and derived from services, most of the earthquake risk models. The table displays the provinces TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES at greatest normalized risk for each peril. In relative terms, as Ohias Tyumeriskya Che Rep riny EARTHQUAKE 1siaeflood95)beteandh [using ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF AFFECTED GDP ()AFFECTED GDP(% Adygeya Rep. Oblast s TKarnchatskaya Yamalo-rnetetskiy Okrug Sakhalinskaya Oblast r 3 Severrnaya Osetiya-alaniya Rep. 5 Buryatiy Rep. z 2 Annual Average of Affected GOP GOP (bilions of $) KurgaGlskaya OhPast Dagestan Rep. T 2 e There is a high correlation Orlovskaya Ohlast 4 Tyva Rep. 1 (r095Ieten h Karatchayevo-cherkesiya Rep. 4Severrnaya Osetiya-alanliya Rep. 1I(J. EARTHQUAKE , population anid GDP Of a Many-el Rep. t Karatchayevo-cherkesiya Rep. the province. Chitiiskaya Ohtast Kahardinr Reps g fs-balkariya S Tverskaya Ohlast 4 Irkutskaya Ohlast 1 0 Negligible U a sa~ he most devastating flood in possible for a flood of any return the Russian Federation since period to occur more than once in its reconstitution in 1991 the same year, or to appear in con- occurred in 2013, causing about secutive years, or not to happen at $1 billion in damage. A 2012 flood all over a long period of time. caused over 150 fatalities and over $600 million in damage. Fatalities If the 10- and 100-year bars are the and damage caused by flooding same height, then the impact of a in August 2002 were on par with 10-year event is as large as that of a those of the 2012 flood. Flooding -year event, and the annual av- also occurred in 1994, 1996, and erage of affected GDP is dominated 1998, with the 1996 flood affecting b e t h liy close to 800,000 people. event is much greater than that of hnymnisy This map depicts the impact of a 10-year event, then less frequent flooding on provinces' GDPs, rep- events make a larger contribution resented as percentages of their to the annual average of affected Lenin4radskaya annual average GDPs affected, with GDR Thus, even if a province's an- SPfoebU&gJ greater color saturation indicating nual affected GDP seems small, less higher percentages. The bar graphs frequent and more intense events Navgcmdkya represent GDP affected by floods can still have large impacts. with return periods of 10 years (white) and 10yas(bak.Te (wie n 100 years (black). The The annual average population It T- N IA AMOscow _Ej CiiisiyaN tL"Aw cros the horizontal horzotallie line across hebar aso bars also affected by flooding in the Russian Kinoka Smoten 11 shows the annual average of GDP F i a 2 m and affected by floods. the annual average affected GDP ansLaya about $20 billion. For most prov-F When a flood has a 10-year return inces, the 10- and 100-year impacts period, it means the probability of do not differ much, so relatively fre- Be6j,zod: aya occurrence of a flood of that mag- quent floods have large impacts on K KJ H nitude or greater is 10 percent per these averages. For the few in which year. A 100-year flood has a proba- the 100-year impacts are much bil ity of occurrence of t percent per greater than the 10-year impacts, rasmdarskth year. This means that over a long the less frequent events make a sig- period of time, a flood of that mag- nificant contribution to the annual nitude will, on average, occur once average of affected GDP. I ZLAEKI IAN K L every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year flood will occur exactly KE" once every 100 years. Itn fact, it is ye Iam Kaardinr-tkariyartoa WORLD BANK GROUP GFDRR EL FND CENTRALA5]A (ECA) Taymyrskiy ii Evenkiyskiy Maqadanskaya KasKcyaksriy Kamnchatskaya - Agmsk-En SakhAiskaya KhÉ, 0 N 0 Li A Affected GOP (%) for AnnuaL Average of Affeted GDP (%) Atay 10 and 100-year return periods One block = 2% 20 10 AnruaL average D.4 . o 10-year 100-year Russian Federation e 3 he Russian Federation's worst an earthquake of any return period earthquake since 1900 took to occur more than once in the same place in 1995 in Neftegorsk, year, or to appear in consecutive with a magnitude of 7.1. It destroyed years, or not to happen at all over a N the settlement of Neftegorsk and long period of time. caused nearly 2,000 fatalities and MLrmanskaya over $450 million in damage. Another major earthquake, which occurred in i 1952 192 and KamchatkaKamhata in ws fol- ad was fl-year eve nt is as large as th at of a 10 0- lowed by a tsunami, killed over 2,000 year event, and the annual avenge of Yamala-nenetskiy people. More recently, in 2007, an earthquake in the Russian Federation tl caused over $450 million in damage. If the impact of a 100-year event is Karelya Arhangelkaya much greater than that of a 10-year F bnymnysi This map depicts the impact of event, then less frequent events make earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, larger contributions to the annual av- represented as percentages of their erage of affected GDP. Thus, even if a Leningradskaya TsL annual average GDPs affected, with province's annual affected GDP seems Sankt-p6 rbai? Vayaj j Kamyermyaskiy greater color saturation indicating small, less frequent and more intense E I Krovkaa _Permskaya - higher percentages. The hihe prcntge. bar heba graphs gaps yClKKostromskay(a events can still have large impacts. V I. N Nvacsaa ik vafce (Sverdlovskaya represent GDP affected by earth- du y The annual average population affect- PSkovsk*yd vrkv vnvkaa __Umity quakes with return periods of 10 quke years (white) rtun and wt100eios f 0 years (black). ed by earthquakes in the Russian LlII Hi AN IIA sw__7'__ k 2__ mskaya Th hrionallie The horizontal crssth line across brs the bars Fe deration is ab out 2 00,0 00 and th e /=I Smalenskay a 7N @7hy aasa Kurganskaya also showsalsheannal the shws veageof annual average DP annual average affected GDP about of GDPIkayRlnos Kalinnngradskaya KazsaaMordlovivIyanevaya Bashkartas-tan Chelyabinskaya eathqukes.$1 affected byaffeted y earthquakes.P0LANDBrasaaLptky billion. The annual averages of AL . ...>4Sa Pn7erskaya, Samiarskaya Tmbvaa Whn neatquk hsa 0yer fatalities and capital losses caused BYnYaLetky Trbokvi' _ frnJgkyt Novo5ibrskaya When an earthquake has a 10-yearand Kurskayz iratovskaya, return period, it means the probabil- about $400 million, respectively. The Altayskiy ity of occurrence of an earthquake fatalities and capital losses caused [AKgradskaya K_AL AKHST_AN of that magnitude or greater is 10 by more intense, less frequent events ;R6bsiovskaYa,- percent per year. A 100-year earth- can be substantially largerthan the Amaklwnrka quake has a probability of occurrence annual averages. For example, an [A[rnkiya of 1 percent per year. This means earthquake with a 0.4 percent annual Krasnctlr.ki that over a long period of time, an probability ofoccurrence (a 250-year Adygeya earthquake of that magnitude will, on r peio e c S-AK average, occur once every 100 years. about 10,000 fatalities and $6 billion DagestaL It does not mean a 100-year earth- in capital loss (less than 1 percent of Sebarnino-balkariyaaAkiSevernaEa _AA quake will occur exactly once every GDP). T 100 years. In fact, it is possible for WORLIDBANK GROUP GFDRR EL AFND CENTRALA5]A (ECA) Taymyrskiy Sakha \kaChukotskiy Evenkiyskiy Maqadanskaya e - Koryaksk i Krasnoyarskiy Kemerovskaya r Khahirovskiy U st Burki Cht yAmurskaya Tyva Sakhali a Khakasiya Atay Affected GDP (%) for AnnuaL Average of Affected GDP (%) 10 and 100-year return periods One block =10% 100 Primorskiy 50 AnnLual average -- L_ 20 10-year 100-year ian Fed onWORLDBANKGROUP Rus rat DR RO"AN CENTRAL E|G A51A(ECA) EARTHQUAKE r2> EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential for greatest annual average capital losses and highest annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital Chechnya Rep. D estan Rep. 40 Severnaya estan Re. loss occurs in Sakhalinskaya Oblast, which is not surprising given the economic importance of the province. EARTHQUAKE he exceedance probability curves display the GDP EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 T affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 400 120 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected r 100 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts 2080 300 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate 80 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if the 208 3 60Russian Federation had experienced a 100-year return pe- 200 r 60 riod flood event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been 0O an estimated $60 billion. In 2080, however, the affected 0 4o 2015 GDP from the same type of event would range from about 20 $200 billion to about $400 billion. If the Russian Federation had experienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an estimated $20 billion. 0 10~~~ 50 25 0 10 5 perd (years) 2eturn Return period (years) In 2080, however, the affected GDP from the same type of - -- - event would range fromi about $50 billion to about $100 10. 10 2 1 0 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, and the Pro ba bility (h robabi[ity(% increase in exposed assets. All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from D.Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Universit6 Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and J. Daniell arid A.Schae- fer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling," final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.