March 2016 Number 154 MENA’S FORCED DISPLACEMENT CRISIS Lili Mottaghi1 largest number of Syrian refugees, the share of the refugee population to the national Introduction: The latest MENA Quarterly population is much higher in Jordan and Economic Brief estimates growth in the Middle Lebanon where they respectively account for East and North Africa (MENA) Region to fall 20% and 23%of the population (Table 1). short of expectation at 2.6 percent in 2015, about According to the United Nations Refugee 0.2 percentage points below the October 2015 Agency (UNHCR), 813,599 Syrians have sought forecast. The World Bank expects the economic asylum in Europe, mostly in Germany, Sweden, outlook to remain “cautiously pessimistic” in Hungary and Austria. the short term. The recent poor performance of several MENA economies, and their dim Figure 1. Estimate of refugees and IDPs prospects for the future, are partly driven by the (Thousands) civil wars that have created death, destruction and significant growth shortfalls in both conflict People of concern countries; Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya and their neighbors. This Quick Note summarizes 14,000 Thousands the findings of the report including the 12,000 important channel of forced displacement, 10,000 which has become a crisis. 8,000 6,000 Forced Displacement crisis. Not only have the 4,000 civil wars caused untold damage to human and physical capital, but they have created the 2,000 biggest forced displacement crisis since World 0 War II. More than 12 million Syrians—half the Total refugees and people IDPs protected/ assisted by in refugee-like situations UNHCR, incl. people in IDP- population in 2010—have been displaced like situations internally and externally and often multiple Syrian Arab Rep. Iraq Yemen Libya times, making Syria the largest displacement crisis globally (Figure 1). Two-thirds of them are Source: UNHCR, International Organization for displaced within the country - Internally Migration (IOM), governments, and NGOs. Displaced Persons (IDPs). They face multiple challenges such as life-threatening security Iraq has about 4 million IDPs and the number of incidents, deteriorating livelihoods, and lack of Iraqis seeking refuge in other countries is rising. access to basic needs. The rest, over 4.6 million, The escalation of conflict across the central have fled to neighboring countries and Europe. governorates of Iraq and the deteriorating More than 85 percent of the Syrian refugees are security situation have resulted in new and hosted in the neighboring countries of Lebanon, secondary movements of IDPs across central Jordan, and Turkey. While Turkey hosts the 1 Lili Mottaghi, Economist, Office the Chief Economist, The Middle East and North Africa Region (MNACE), the World Bank. March 2016 · Number 154· 1 Iraq and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (Table 2). quarters of Yemeni refugees have fled to Saudi UNHCR estimates the number of Iraqis of Arabia, concern to likely exceed 3 million people. Table 2. Iraqi refugee crisis Table 1. Number of Syrian refugees in Origin January December neighboring countries (as of January 19, 2016) 2015 2015 Host Total Registered Percent of Total in Total in country estimated refugees total country country Syrians registered Refugees Palestinian 12,000 12,400 refugees Syrian Arab 310,000 400,000 Lebanon Rep. 1,500,000 1,069,111 23.2 Turkey 16,000 16,600 Jordan 1,400,000 635,324 13.8 Various 8,300 8,550 Turkey 2,750,000 2,503,549 54.4 People in refugee-like Various 2,000 1,500 situations Iraq 250,000 245,022 5.3 Asylum-seekers Islamic Rep. 6,000 5,500 of Iran Egypt 260,000 123,585 2.7 Syrian Arab 1,200 1,200 North Rep. 50,000 26,772 0.6 Turkey 1,400 1,500 Africa Total 6,210,000 4,603,363 100 Various 800 800 persons Returnee arrivals Iraq 40,000 35,000 Source: UNHCR. Note: Total estimated Syrian during year (ex- represents Government estimates, including refugees) registered Syrian refugees, unregistered Syrian Internally displaced Iraq 1,500,000 1,400,000 refugees as well as Syrians residing in the host Returnee arrivals Iraq 100,000 90,000 countries under alternative legal frameworks. during year (ex-IDPs) Stateless Stateless 50,000 46,000 Countries bordering conflict zones, many of Total 2,047,700 2,019,050 them already in fragile situations, are facing tremendous budgetary pressure. According to Source: UNHCR government estimates, each refugee costs the Jordanian government USD 3,750 (2,500 dinars) Oman and Djibouti. At the same time, the to host per year.2 The influx of more than 630,000 country hosts refugees mainly from Somalia and Syrian refugees is thus estimated to have cost Jordan over USD 2.5 billion a year. This amounts Ethiopia. Internal conflicts including tribal to 6 percent of GDP and one-fourth of clashes continue to create new displacement. government’s annual revenues. Under this The crisis in Libya has led to many Libyans situation, government debt is accumulating fast- fleeing to Tunisia, although the exact number is - estimated at 90 percent of GDP in 2015. uncertain given that Libyans have been crossing the border for commerce and other purposes for In Yemen, the number of IDPs has increased some time. This has negatively affected the five-fold since the outbreak of conflict in March Tunisian economy. According to local 2015, reaching over 2.5 million people, or 10 percent of the population, in December 2015 authorities and non-governmental (Figure 2). Most IDPs originated from Aden, Al organizations (NGOs), there are also 435,000 Dhale’e and Sa’ada. More than 30 percent of IDPs in Libya. displaced households in some areas are female- headed, an increase from 9 percent before the crisis. There has also been a rise in the number of refugees since the crisis. More than three 2 Jordan Ministry of Interior. March 2016 · Number 154· 2 Lebanon are considered poor. This number Figure 2. Yemen IDPs crisis increases to 9 in 10 refugees if the poverty lines used by the respective host countries are 3,000,000 considered. The poverty rate of Syrian refugees is higher in Jordan than in Lebanon. In Jordan, 2,500,000 2,509,062 there is also evidence that poverty among refugees has increased by several percentage 2,000,000 points between 2013 and 2015 (Figure 3). 1,500,000 Figure 3. Syrian refugees’ living conditions in Lebanon and Jordan 1,000,000 June 2015 70% 500,000 296,793 546,000 60% - 50% Jan-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Jul-12 May-13 Mar-14 Jan-15 Nov-15 40% Source: United Nations Office for the Coordination of 30% Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) 20% Living Condition of Refugees and IDPs: Data 10% from UNHCR show that half of Syrian refugees are of working age between 18-64 years (with 0% Live below Live in Shelters Share No heating School age half of them being female), and were poverty line accomodation children withdrawn economically active in Syria prior to the crisis. Syrian refugee households in Jordan Syrian refugee households in Lebanon More than half of all Syrian refugees are under the age of 18. Most of them have been out of school for years. They face an uncertain future. Source: UNHCR. Unemployment rates are high, particularly among women, at 68 percent. As for the rest, Yemen faces a growing poverty crisis. Before the with difficulties in obtaining work permits in war, more than half the population lived in host countries, many work in the informal sector extreme poverty (below USD 1.90 a day) and with no protection. A recent survey by the more than half of the youth were unemployed. International Labor Organization (ILO) shows These numbers have been increasing since the that about 92 percent of Syrian refugees in war and more than 20 million people -- 82 Lebanon have no work contract and more than percent of Yemenis--are now considered poor. half of them work on a seasonal, weekly or daily These include more than 15 million without basis at low wages that often do not cover their access to health facilities and medical care. With basic needs. people fleeing their homes and no formal camps, displaced people are sheltered in 260 schools, Syrian refugees are extremely vulnerable. A preventing access to education for 13,000 recent survey by UNHCR, UNICEF and WFP children. According to Office for the based on an assessment of more than 4,000 Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), refugee households in Lebanon shows that an additional 1.8 million children have lost the almost half of the refugees were in debt and 39 possibility of receiving an education, with more percent of those surveyed cannot afford medical than 3,500 schools closed across the country. care. Free primary health care is available to only This is in addition to an estimated 1.6 million 12 percent of the households surveyed. children with no access to schools before March. Estimates by UNHCR show that 7 in 10 registered Syrian refugees living in Jordan and March 2016 · Number 154· 3 Since the escalation of violence, more than Contact MNA K&L: 537,000 children (one-eighth of all children Deborah Wetzel, Director, Strategy and under the age of five) are estimated to be at risk Operations. MENA Region, the World Bank Sajjad Ali Shah, Manager, MNADE of severe malnutrition. These challenges are exacerbated by rising prices that have already Regional Quick Notes Team: reduced access to food and safe water, basic Omer Karasapan and Mark Volk Tel #: (202) 473 public services and livelihood opportunities. 8177 The MNA Quick Notes are intended to summarize Overall, millions of Syrians, Iraqis, Yemenis and lessons learned from MNA and other Bank Knowledge and Learning activities. The Notes do not Libyans have been forced to flee their homes or necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its displaced with in the country. They are in need board or its member countries. of urgent humanitarian and financial assistance. According to the United Nations (U.N.) for Syria only, it will take US$ 7.7 billion to meet the urgent needs of the most vulnerable people in 2016. March 2016 · Number 154· 4