GUATEMALA Earthquakes and Hurricanes RISK PROFILE What is a country disaster risk profile? Snapshot An estimation of the potential economic losses to property caused by adverse natural hazards.  The earthquake risk Develop key baseline data in Guatemala is more Country Disaster Evaluate impact of disasters Risk Profile significant than the Promote and inform risk reduction Applications hurricane risk. Inform disaster risk financing Annual Average Loss Country At-A-Glance (AAL) from earthquakes is GDP US$ Population Total Building Exposure US$ (Replacement Value) US$ 325.3M (0.46% 58.7 billion 15.8 million 70.3 billion of GDP) and from Population Gross Capital hurricanes is US$ 21.6M Stock Public 38% Rural 49% (0.04% of GDP). Urban 51% Private 62% The Probable Maximum Loss for earthquakes (250 Two representations year return period) is US$ of earthquake risk 7.9B (11.2% of GDP) Provinces by ratio (AAL/Province Exposure) and for hurricanes (250 lowest ratio nnnnn highest ratio year return period) is US$ 622M (1% of GDP). AAL (in millions US$) 22-130 7.8-21 Single-family, residential 0.79-7.7 houses constructed with unreinforced Relative Risk: The darker the color, the higher the ratio of concrete brick masonry AAL/Province Exposure. The darkest color represents the are the buildings most province of Escuintla which has a higher proportion of vulnerable to earthquakes, vulnerable structures due to construction types and/or potentially higher earthquake accounting for over intensity. 40% of AAL. Absolute Risk: The larger the circle, the higher the Annual Average Losses that the province could potentially incur over the long term. GUATEMALA What is at risk in Guatemala? Legend Economic assets such as residential and Exposure non-residential buildings are at risk. These (in millions US$) assets that are exposed to natural disasters n < 11 are referred to as a country’s Building n 11 – 39 Exposure. n 40 – 88 n 89 – 177 The map illustrates the value and distribution n > 177 of residential and non-residential buildings in Guatemala at risk from earthquakes and hurricanes. What are the potential losses in Guatemala? These charts show the estimated potential future losses to Guatemala that could be caused by earthquakes and hurricanes that could occur within a given return period. In 1902, a magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck Guatemala. If this historical event were to happen in 2015, it would cause losses of US$ 3,200M amounting to 4.6% of GDP. Estimated Losses Due to EARTHQUAKES Estimated Losses Due to HURRICANES $16,000 $1,500 $12,000 Millions (US$) Millions (US$) $1,000 $8,000 $500 $4,000 0 $0 Historical 50 100 250 500 1,000 50 100 250 500 1,000 Return period in years Return period in years How can earthquake risk 70% 1.4% be reduced? AAL as a % of exposed value (risk indicator) 60% 1.2% Risk reduction interventions could AAL as a % of its total 50% 1.0% be prioritized in the highest risk ranked department of Escuintla in 40% 0.8% Guatemala (see map on previous 30% 0.6% page). At an estimated additional cost of US$ 96M, most single family 20% 0.4% adobe buildings in Escuintla could 10% 0.2% be retrofitted up to the standards of 0% 0.0% good quality, wood frame buildings Adobe Wood Masonry Concrete Critical Other which would reduce the risk of adobe Infrastructure Generalized construction type buildings by over 85%. This would n AAL as % of exposed value n AAL as % of total also reduce the country’s AAL by 3%. To learn more, visit: collaboration.worldbank.org/groups/cdrp or email cdrp@worldbank.org In Collaboration with Financed by GUATEMALA © 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.