COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING ROUND 12 APR 2021 Publication Date BACKGROUND NIGERIA In April 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), with support from the World Bank, launched the COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (NLPS); a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,950 households to monitor the socioeconomic impact of the pandemic and other shocks. The first round (baseline) of the survey was conducted in April/May 2020, during which a federally mandated lockdown was in full effect. At the time of the twelfth round of the NLPS – conducted in April 10-27, 2021 – there were far few- er restrictions on activities and movement within the country. This brief presents the main findings from the twelfth round of the Nigeria COVID-19 NLPS. The most im- portant innovation in the twelfth round was to collect information from a youth (someone aged 15-25 years old) randomly selected from each household. This provides a deeper understanding of the aspirations, employ- ment, and willingness to be vaccinated of this age cohort. The phone numbers of the selected youth were pre- filled for the interviewer to call with specific instruction to interview only the selected youth, with no replace- ment. Quality control mechanisms were also put in place to ensure the interviewers adhered to these direc- tives. SUMMARY  The share of urban youth attending school or train- monly reported even across different subgroups of ing was 61%, significantly higher than the share of youth. Lots of young people also aspire to get pro- rural youth (49%). fessional jobs – this is split across accountancy,  A higher share of young people from the poorest medicine, and engineering. consumption quintile rely more on the money from  Overall, the youth respondents seem to be ex- their regular job (64%), while only 38% of those tremely optimistic. 92% percent of the youths in from the richest consumption quintile reported this the richest consumption quintile believe that source as their main one. achieving their dream job is likely or very likely. In  When asking the youth the ideal level of formal the case of youth in the poorest quintile, this figure education that they would like to complete, more is only 63%. than half of them indicated that they would like to  The vast majority of youths reported that they finish university and a further 29% of them would would agree to be vaccinated (89%). Willingness to like to complete post-graduate studies. be vaccinated was higher in rural (92%) than in ur-  A trader or businessperson is the most common ban (80%) areas. dream job of Nigerian youth. It is the most com- ACTIVITY HISTORY More than half of the youth (15-25 years old) were expected, this composition also varies by age: 71% of attending school or training at the time of the twelfth- youth aged 15-18 years were mainly attending school round interviews while 35% of them were working or training, while only 30% of those within 23-25 age and 13% were neither attending school nor working. cohort were doing so. The share of male youth working (39%) was higher than the share of female youth (31%). As would be 1 https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING The share of urban youth attending school or training 20 percent of households were working compared to (61%) was significantly higher than the share of rural 29% of those in the richest 20 percent. youth (49%) doing so. Relatedly, there was also varia- tion in working/training status across expenditure quin- tiles: 40% of young people that live in the poorest The disparities between urban and rural youths are further expounded by the average age when they started school or working. While young people in urban areas started school when they were 4.3 years old on average, rural youth started one year later, when they were 5.5 years old. On the other hand, urban youth started to work approximately two years later than their rural counterparts. This shows that rural youth, in general, spent less time in school and, therefore, accumulated fewer years of schooling than those in urban areas. Similar results were also found across the consumption distribution: youths from the poorest 20 percent of households started school at age 6.4 but commenced working when they were about 12 years old. Conversely, young people in the richest 20 percent of households started school when they were 4 years old and did not start working until they were almost 18 years old. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 2 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING The main sources of income (money) for young reported this source as their main income source people in Nigeria was their regular job (47%) or their while relying more heavily on parents or family for parents and/or family (41%). Youth’s main source of income. This is not surprising given that most young income varies across gender, with 57% of young people from poor households were already working males reporting that their main source is their regular by age 12 when – as per Nigeria’s Universal Basic job while 50% of young females reported that their Education policy – they should still be in Junior parents and/or family was their main source. Secondary School. Differences in income/money sources across consumption quintiles are also considerable: 64% of youths in the poorest 20 percent of households rely on income from their regular job while only 38% of youths from the richest 20 percent of households https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 3 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING YOUTH IN EDUCATION Around 64% of Nigerian youths who were attending a business, 6% plan to work as a trainee or apprentice, school/training in April 2021 were enrolled in second- and 4% plan on working as an employee. In the case of ary levels of education. Of these, 78% indicated that youths enrolled in Quaranic education (that account they were planning to pursue further education/training for 11% of youth attending school), more than a third immediately after completing their current level of edu- would like to start a business and another third would cation/training, while about 6% of them plan on starting like to continue studying. When youths were asked the ideal level of formal edu- plete this level of education. Conversely, about 4% of cation that they would like to complete, more than half young people from the richest quintile aspire to reach of them would like to finish university (undergraduate), only secondary education, compared to 20% of young while a further 29% would like to complete post- people from the poorest quintile. graduate studies. However, there are some differences The most common constraint reported by youths on by gender – while one in three male youth would like achieving their ideal level of education was lack of mon- to complete post-graduate studies, fewer than one in ey- 85% of Nigerian youths indicated this as one of four females would like to reach this level. There are their main constraints. Looking across the gender di- also stark differences in aspirations when comparing vide, 93% of young males reported lack of money as youth from the poorest households with youth from one of the main limitations, followed by lack of connec- the richest households. Almost half of youths living in a tions or acquaintances. Similarly, 75% of the female household in the richest quintile would like to complete youths reported lack of money as one of the main con- post-graduate studies, while only 12% of youths living in straints, followed by domestic obligations (11%). households in the poorest quintile would like to com- https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 4 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING ASPIRATIONS Young Nigerians also continue to aspire to good pro- There are also differences in young people’s job aspira- fessional jobs; these aspirations seem to be misaligned tions across the different consumption quintiles. While with the state of Nigerian labor market, especially fol- 15% of the young people in the richest quintile dream lowing the COVID-19 crisis, which could result in of becoming engineers, only 1% of those in the poorest widespread disappointment and frustration without quintile dream of this profession. Conversely, 11% of appropriate policies. When asked what their dream job the youths in the poorest quintile aspire to become is, the most commonly reported was Trader or busi- soldiers, compared to virtually 0% of the youth in the nessperson (22%). It is the most common even among richest quintile. the different subgroups of youth, such as by sex or con- Furthermore, 92% percent of the youth in the richest sumption quintile. Other common dream jobs reported consumption quintile believe that they are likely or very were doctor, engineer, and tailor. There are some dif- likely to achieve their dream job. In the case of youth in ferences, however, across gender of youths that need the poorest quintile, this figure is only 63%. This dispar- mention. While 14% of young males aspires to be engi- ity reveals the different perceptions that young people neers, only 1% of young females dream to have this job. have regarding their probability of reaching their goals. In addition, 11% of young females aspire to become nurses, while virtually none of the young males consider nursing as their dream job. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 5 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 6 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING Another relevant metric to define youth aspirations is munity who has their dream job, but 47% of them to whether they know someone who holds their know of a woman in their community that has their dream job. These persons would generally serve as dream job. About 63% of the young females in Nigeria role models to young people when they are consider- reported that they know a woman in their community ing their future profession. More than two-thirds of that is currently in their dream job. Nigerian youth report knowing someone in their com- VACCINATION The vast majority of Nigerian youth reported that more likely to spread in more densely populated ur- they would agree to be vaccinated (89%) should an ban areas. These results largely mimic the willingness approved vaccine become available in the country at to be vaccinated among main household respondents zero cost. Willingness to be vaccinated among the (not specifically youths) from previous rounds of the youth was higher in rural (92%) than in urban (80%) NLPS (Round 6 & 10). areas, which is surprising given that COVID-19 is https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 7 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING Young people in poor households are more willing to households are willing to be vaccinated, compared with get vaccinated than their rich counterparts. This is not 80% of young people in the richest 20 percent of surprising as a similar pattern was observed in previ- households. ous rounds (6 & 10) of the NLPS when the vaccine questions were fielded to the main respondent. Gener- ally, 95% of young people in the poorest 20 percent of Data Notes: The Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 NLPS) 2020 Twelfth Round was implemented by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in April 2021. This survey is part of a World Bank global effort to support countries in their data collection efforts to monitor the impacts of COVID-19. World Bank teams from the Development Data Group and the Poverty and Equity Global Practice provided technical support. This survey is the last of a planned 12 rounds of the COVID- 19 NLPS of households in Nigeria. 1,238 households with youth (15-25 years) from the baseline were contacted and 841 households, fully interviewed in the twelfth round. The data are representative at the national level and survey weights were calculated to adjust for non-response and under coverage. For further details on the data, visit http://www.worldbank.org/lsms-covid19 and https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria/brief/monitoring-covid-19-impact-on-nigerian-households For further details on COVID-19 in Nigeria, visit https://nigeria-coronavirus-response-data-hub-nbs-nigeria.hub.arcgis.com/ For details on the survey, contact Biyi Fafunmi (biyifafunmi@nigerianstat.gov.ng) and Tunde Adebisi (tundeadebisi@nigerianstat.gov.ng) 8