COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING ROUND 9 JAN 2021 Publication Date BACKGROUND NIGERIA In April 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), with support from the World Bank, launched the COVID - 19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (NLPS); a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,950 households to monitor the socioeconomic impact of the pandemic and other shocks. The first round (baseline) of the survey was conducted in April/May 2020, during which a federally mandated lockdown was in full effect. Although the government lifted restrictions in the summer of 2020, by the time the ninth round was conducted between January 9 and January 25, 2021, some restrictions – including on large gatherings – had been reintro- duced to combat rising COVID-19 cases. This brief presents the findings from the ninth round of the Nigeria COVID -19 NLPS. The ninth round of the NLPS repeated previous questions on employment, non-farm enterprises, and income sources, so the progress of these indicators over time can be tracked. The ninth round also collected information on early childhood de- velopment (ECD), access to health services, and changes in the price of major food items consumed. SUMMARY  About 30% of Nigerian households indicated that  About 79% of households that needed to buy rice adding more hours to the school day was the most indicated that rice prices increased between January important strategy to recover from the learning 2020 and January 2021; this echoes the acceleration lost to school closures in 2020; adding more hours of food price inflation witnessed in Consumer Price to the school day seems to be the preferred strate- Index data. gy for households in both urban and rural areas and  With people returning to work, the large negative across all consumption quintiles. impact of the COVID-19 crisis on household in-  About 48% of children located in the lowest quin- come may be starting to abate: in the baseline sur- tile households had no access to educational con- vey – which compared income before the pandemic tent in the 15 days preceding the interview, com- to income in the earlier stages of the pandemic – pared to 14% in the richest quintile. some 70% of household experienced income loss,  While printed materials seem to be the main chan- yet the share of households reporting declining in- nel of learning for children in Nigeria, children in come between the period August 2019-January richer households had significantly more access to 2020 and the period August 2020-January 2021 was learning through television, smartphones, or tablets. about 38%. EDUCATION Schools in Nigeria were closed for the majority of the for the lost time/classes when schools reopened. About 2019/20 school year as a way to contain the spread of 30% of Nigerian households indicated that adding more the COVID-19 pandemic. Given that most schools in hours to the school day was the most important strate- the country do not have the infrastructure to conduct gy; adding more hours to the school day seems to be online/virtual instruction, these school closures meant the preferred strategy for households in both urban that, for most households, children did not have direct and rural areas and across all consumption quintiles. access to learning instruction. This begs important poli- Additionally, around 15% of households reported that cy questions around what the learning impact on chil- repeating the missed school period was the most im- dren could be, and what measures might be needed to portant strategy and a further 9% reported that adding recover from this loss of learning. To help answer more days to the school calendar was the most im- these policy questions, households were asked what portant strategy. A sizable proportion of households should be done for children who missed school during also want school authorities to focus on teaching basic the 2019/20 school year in order for them to catch up reading and math. 1 https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING EARLY CHILDHOOD DEVELOPMENT (ECD) One important component of the ninth round was to households in the lower consumption quintiles are less examine ECD and, in particular, the channels through likely to have access to any educational learning con- which learning (educational content) could be accessed tents, compared to their counterparts in the higher for children between 2 and 10 years old. In each house- consumption quintiles. Specifically, about 48% of chil- hold with children in this age cohort, one child was ran- dren located in the lowest quintile households had no domly selected, and a series of questions (including access to educational content in the 15 days preceding about channels for accessing learning) were asked to the interview, compared to 14% in the richest quintile. the main respondent about that child. Children from https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 2 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING Printed learning materials seem to be the most im- ing it harder for teachers to provide online instruction portant source of learning information across all con- to children where necessary. There are also some key sumption quintiles, probably because school authorities differences looking across consumption quintiles: for usually provide students with textbooks, some of which example, children in richer households had significantly can be taken home. Conversely, access to free learning more access to learning through television. through computers or smart phones is far lower, mak- ACCESS Households were asked if the prices of the major food holds that needed to buy beans and yams respectively items that they consumed had increased compared also reported rising prices during the previous year. with one year ago (between January 2020 and January These findings are consistent with the acceleration of 2021). Broadly, households that needed to buy given food price inflation witnessed in NBS’ Consumer Price food items reported that the prices of those food items Index data. While rising food prices could benefit net increased between January 2020 and January 2021. producers, many households may be experiencing a About 79% of households that needed to buy rice indi- loss of purchasing power, as they have to purchase cated that rice prices increased between January 2020 food items too. and January 2021. Moreover, 87% and 88% of house- https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 3 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING In Round 9, households were asked about their need treatment, while 88% of those who needed child health for specific medical services and their ability to access services were able to access them. Similarly, about 77% those services. About 85% of households who needed of households who needed vaccinations in the last 4 adult health services reported being able to access weeks were about to access them. EMPLOYMENT The rebound in the share of respondents working ob- absent or stopped working in Round 9 (23%) is the sec- served from June to December 2020 appears to have ond highest of all the rounds; indeed, the only time that partially reversed. The overall share of respondents the share of respondents that were absent or stopped working was 70% in January 2021. This value is similar working was higher was in the first round (43%), just to the share of respondents working reported in June after the pandemic hit. 2020. Moreover, the share of respondents that were *As reported in Round 1 This figure inc ludes only 1346 observations that represent HHs w ith information for all rounds and that they did not change respondents along the way. Temporary absences were not incorporated. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 4 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING There are three potential reasons for this reduction in because they were ill or quarantined, compared to just the share of respondents working. First, it is important 2% of respondents in Round 8. The increase in the to note that Round 9 data collection occurred just after share of respondents who were ill or quarantined could New Years’ holidays, so some respondents may have be related to the surge of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria been on vacation. While in previous rounds the share which started in December 2020. Third, many work of respondents that are absent or stopped working due activities are seasonal in nature: in January 2021, 4% of to vacations/holidays was always lower than 1%, this respondents reported that they were not working be- share was 9% in January 2021. Second, in Round 9, 5% cause the farming season has ended. of respondents reported that they were not working This figure includes only 1346 observations that represent HHs with information for all rounds and that they did not change respondents along the way. NON-FARM ENTREPRISE In line with the drop in the overall share of respond- with non-farm businesses) had also been closed for at ents working, a higher share of households who had least one month between June and December 2020. non-farm family businesses were not operating their Moreover, just 22% of households with non-farm busi- business in January 2021 (23%), compared to Decem- nesses in 2020 operated them continuously since the ber 2020 (17%). Of these, 56% (13% of all households peak of restrictions in April/May 2020. This figure includes only 1346 observations that represent HHs with information for all rounds and that they did not change respondents along the way. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 5 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING INCOME CHANGES In Round 9, households were asked to indicate their ily members within the country (46% of households income sources between August 2020 and January that had such income); followed by assistance from non- 2021, and how the income they received from each relatives within the country (42%) and non-farm family applicable source compared to the same period a year business (41%). Nevertheless, assessing these new find- ago (August 2019 to January 2020). The data shows ings against the baseline survey (which compared in- that 38% of the households reported income loss come before the pandemic to the earlier stages of the (decrease) between the period of August 2019 to Janu- pandemic), there seems to be some improvement in ary 2020 and the period of August 2020 to January household income since the start of the pandemic: 2021. Looking across different income sources, income more than 70% of households experienced income loss losses were most widespread for remittances from fam- at the start of the crisis. Comparison periods for Round 9 (R9): From August 2020 to January 2021, compared to August 2019 and January 2020 Data Notes: The Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 NLPS) 2020 Ninth Round was implemented by the National Bureau of Statist ics (NBS) in January 2021. These surv eys are part of a World Bank g lobal effort to support countries in their data collection efforts to monitor the impacts of COVID-19. World Bank teams f rom the Development Data Group and the Poverty and Equity Global Practic e prov ided technical support. This surv ey is the ninth of a planned 12 rounds of the COVID -19 NLPS of households in Nigeria. 1,839 households from the baseline were contacted and 1,706 house- holds, fully interviewed in the ninth round. These same households will be contacted in subsequent rounds of the COVID-19 NLPS. The data are representative at the national level and survey weights were calculated to adjust for non-response and under coverage. For further details on the data, visit http://www.worldbank.org/lsms-covid19 and https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria/brief/monitoring-covid-19-impact-on-nigerian-households For further details on COVID-19 in Nigeria, visit https://nigeria-coronavirus-response-data-hub-nbs-nigeria.hub.arcgis.com/ For details on the survey, contact Biyi Fafunmi (biyifafunmi@ nigeria nstat.gov.ng) and Tunde Adebisi (tundeadebisi@ nigeria nstat.gov.ng) 6