37439 ¸¹Ò¤ÒÃâÅ¡ µ"¡µ`¥ »...°`®¬ "§",°ª­®Ì"ª­»¬ Õ"§" ¬"¡"««Õè TM--È 30 989 æ­"¡ 1 ªÿ¡«-- °ÿßæ 10330 ª­»¬ , (662) 686-8300 ¡..."¬ 2549 , " (662) 686-8301 http://www.worldbank.or.th/monitor/economic : . : kmatin@worldbank.org Kbhaopichitr@worldbank.org 30 989 1 10330 (662) 686-8300 http://www.worldbank.or.th ( ) . ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) . i F F ACMECS Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Corporation FIDF Financial Institutions Development Fund Strategy - - ADB Asian Development Bank FPO Fiscal Policy Office . AGM Annual General Meeting FTA Free Trade Agreements AMC Asset Management Companies FY Fiscal Year . ( 1 30 ) ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations GCC Gulf Cooperation Council BAAC Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives GCS Government Counter Services . BOI Board of Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product BOT Bank of Thailand GFMIS Government Fiscal Management Information System . BMA Bond Market Association GMS Greater Mekong Subregion CAT CAT Telecom Plc. GSB Government Savings Bank . . ( ) CDP Country Development Partnership GSMS Government Strategic Management System CEP Closer Economic Partnership HS Harmonized System CPI Consumer Price Index ICAAT The Institute of Certified Accountant and Auditor of Thailand CS-DRMS CommonwealthSecretariatDebtRecordingandManagement ICP Insurance Core Principles System DDC Department of Disease Control ICT Information and Communications Technology DOR Department of Rice IEA International Energy Agency e-GP E-Government procedure ISIC International Standard Industrial Classification EGAT Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand ISP Internet Service Provider EPPO Energy Policy and Planning Office ITSC International Trade Strategic Agency EU European Union JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation EXIM Bank Export-Import Bank KPIs Key Performance Indicators FDI Foreign Direct Investments LRC LegalReformCommitteeforDevelopmentofThailand . ii F F F F MOC Ministry of Commerce SEA Securities and Exchange Commission Act MOU Memorandum of Understanding SEC Securities Exchange Commission . MLR Minimum Loan Rates SES Socio-Economic Survey NBFIs Non-bank Financial Institutions SET Stock Exchange of Thailand . NCC National Communications Commission SFIs Specialized Financial Institutions NHSO National Health Security Office SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises NIA National Innovation Agency SML Small-Medium-Large / NIDA National Institute for Development Administration SOEs State-owned Enterprises NESDB National Economic and Social Development Board SPVs Special Purpose Vehicles NPM Net Profit Margin SRRT Surveillance Rapid Response Teams OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development SSO Social Security Office OPDC Office of Public Development Commission SSS Social Security Scheme . OSU Oversight Support Unit TAMC Thai Asset Management Corporation . OTOP One Tambon One Product TCI Technology Capacity Index PAMP Public Affairs Management Plan TFEX Thailand Future Exchange ( ) PATH Peoples Audit for Thailand TFP Total Factor Productivity PICS Productivity and Investment Climate Study TOT Telephone Organization of Thailand PII Private Investment Index TSD Thailand Security Depositary Company ( ) PPI Producer Price Index TVQ Thai Vocational Qualifications PPP Private Public Partnership UTCC University of The Thai Chamber of Commerce PSA Public Sector Account WB World Bank PSDS Public Sector Development Strategy WTI West Texas Intermediate SDUs Service Delivery Units yoy Year-on-year SDF Skill Development Fund iii 1 : ...................................................................................................................................................................................1 2 : .........................................................................................................................................................7 2.1 ............................................7 2.2 ...........................................................................................................................................................................16 2.3 ........................................................................................................................................................16 2.4 ..............................................................................................................................................................................18 2.5 .................................................................................................................................................23 2.6 ................................................................................................................................................................................26 2.6.1 .............................................................................................................................................26 2.6.2 .....................................................................................................................................................32 2.7 .........................................................................................................................33 2.8 ..............................................................35 3 : ............................................................................................................................43 3.1 .............................................................................................................43 3.2 .....................................................................................................................................................................50 3.3 ..........................................................................................................................................................51 1: .......................................................................................................................................I 2 : .......................................................................................................................III 1. .....................................................................................................................2 2. ........................................................................................................................................................................8 3. ..........................................................................................11 4. ..............................................................................................................................................................12 5. ..........................................................................................................................................................14 6. ...............................................................28 7. .......................................................................................................39 8. 1 2...........................................................................45 9. ....................................................46 10. ...............................................................47 11. ...................................................................................51 12. ...............................................................................52 13. .........................................................55 14. ....................................................................................................57 iv 1. GDP GDP (M2) GDP 2539-2547........................................................................................2 2. GDP 2547-2549 ( )...........................................................................7 3. , 2545-2548............................................................................................................................................................8 4. (year-on-year)........................................................................................................................................8 5. , 2546-2549 ( )................................................................................................10 6. , 2545-2548................................................................10 7. ......................................................................................................................................................12 8. ...................................................................................................................12 9. .....................................................................................12 10. ................................................................................12 11. ............................................................................................................................................................13 12. ..........................................................................13 13. ...................................................................................................................................13 14. ...........................................................................13 15. ..........................................................................................15 16. .......................................................................................................................................15 17. ........................................................................................................................................................15 18. ..............................................................................................15 19. 2547...................................................................................16 20. 5 2547..................................................................................................16 21. ( , ) 2538 - 2549....18 22. ( , ) 2541 - 2549..........................................................................................................................................18 23. 2537-2539 2545-2547...............................................................................................................................19 24. 2545-2548...........................................................................................................19 25. - 2548...........19 26. , 2546-2548...................23 27. , 2545-2548..................................................................................23 28. , 2545-2548..............................................................................................................24 29. , 2545-2548..................................................................24 30. , 2547 - 2549.........................................................................................25 31. , 2548 - 2549.......................25 32. , 2545-2548.........................................................................................25 33. , 2540-2547.....................................................................25 34. 2543, 2545 2547..........................................................................................25 35. 2546-2548................................27 36. 2545-2548................................................................................................................................27 37. , 2541-2548....................................................................................................................................29 38. .........................................................29 39. ..............................................................................................................29 v 40. 2545-2548..................................................................................................29 41. ................................................................................................................31 42. BOI............................................................................................31 43. GDP ...................................................................................................31 44. ............................................................................................................31 45. 2544-2548..............................................................................................................................33 46. ( )................................................................................33 47. 2543 - 3 2548.................................................................................................35 48. ............................35 49. ........................................................................................................................................................35 50. ..........................................................................................................................................................................36 51. ..........................................................................................................................................36 52. 2545 2546....................................36 53. ( 1,000 )...................................................................................................................36 54. .......................................................................................................................................38 55. ..........................................................40 56. ......................................40 1. .........................................................................................................14 2. ....................................................................................................................17 3. 2547 2548..................................................................................................20 4. 85 2546 2549.................................................21 5. 84 2546 2549.................................................21 6. 2547 2548........................................................................................22 7. ..........................................................................................................................26 8. ...............................................................................................................30 9. ...................................................................................................32 10. .........................................................................................................34 11. .....................................................................................................37 12. .....................................................................................................................................51 13. .......................................................................................................57 vi ã«'Ë 1 ¿"æ«¡ (GDP) 2549 5 6.2 2548 5.6 2549 2548 52 ( 3.1 ) 29 GDP 2.2 GDP 2548 2549 6 3 48 GDP 2548 4 4.5 2548 ( 4 2549 2) ( 5 ) ( 30 1 °Õ'Ë 1: °"øÑúµ--«¢Õߪ­»¬®"°«`°µ`»...°`® 1 2545 2530-2539 4.6 2 Yª'Ë 1: º`µ¿--±è¡««¡,,ª­»µãÕÀ--«'Ë·å®`ß --¥ ã«°"ßÿµãÕ GDP --¥ ã«°" ãßÕÕ°µãÕ GDP ·­ª`¡"ß`µ"¡§«"¡À¡"¬°«å"ß (M2) µãÕ GDP ªÇ 2539-2547 150 200 Real GDP per Capita Investment to GDP ratio 180 140 160 130 100) 100) 00)1 100) 140 1= 98= 1= 120 19( 254 1998=( 254 ( x x 120 ( Inde 110 ndeI 100 100 80 90 60 1996 2539 2540 1997 2541 1998 2542 1999 2543 2000 2544 2001 2545 2002 2546 2003 2547 2004 2539 1996 2540 1997 2541 1998 2542 1999 2543 2000 2544 2001 2545 2002 2546 2003 2547 2004 Indonesia Korea, Rep. Thailand Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Korea, Rep. Thailand Malaysia Philippines 130 1 8 0 Export to GDP ratio M 2 to G D P ratio (M2) 120 1 6 0 110 100 0) 1 4 0 10 10= = 100) 100) 90 1= 1= 98 1 2 0 19( 1998( 254 254 80 ( x x ( denI 70 ndeI 1 0 0 60 8 0 50 40 6 0 1996 2539 2540 1997 2541 1998 2542 1999 2543 2000 2544 2001 2545 2002 2546 2003 2547 2004 1 9 9 6 2539 2540 1 9 9 7 2541 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2542 2 0 0 0 2543 2544 2 0 0 1 2545 0 0 2 2546 2 0 0 3 2547 2 0 0 4 Indonesia Korea, Rep. Thailand Malaysia Philippines In d o nesia K o rea, R ep . T h ailan d M alay s ia P hilip p in es : WDI GDP 45 65 34 43 28 36 1 2543 2,276 2546 2 GDP 2523-2532 10 5 ) 50 GDP 5 2543 2547 21 11 GDP 45 35 65 17 ( 85 84 87) 34 43 28 36 15 2548 ( 20 2547) 2547 2548 4.4 5.9 2547 GDP GDP 2523-2532 ( 1980) 3 46 ( 17.5 7.9 ) 2549 (2545-2548) 9 11 2548 14 2547 (2549-2553) . . . 1,300 150 2 e-ASEAN 10 ( 2550-2554) (1) (2) (3) 2549 2549 5 2549 2 (2006) 4 3 4 (Thailand Investment Climate, Firm Competitiveness and Growth Study) 60 1,385 (GMS region) 3 (2006) 4 : Dee, P. 2004a, , , , Dee, P. 2004b, , , 5 6 F ã«'Ë 2 °"øÑúµ--«·­·«,å¡ 2.1 Õ--µ"°"µ`,µ¢Õߺ`µ¿--±è Yª'Ë 2: Õ--µ"°"¢¬"¬µ--«¢Õß GDP ·­ 㫪­°Õ ¡««¡,,ª­»'Ë·å®`ß ·­ ªÇ 2547-2549 (ª­¡"°") °"æ--"»...°`®¡À¿"§ 18 12 2547 2004122548 2005 2549 2006p 16 ( ) 14 123 (GDP) 12 123 123 12 123 123 123 y 123 12 o- 10 123 12 123 4.5 123 12 123 123 y-, 123 12 123 123 ntecr 123 12 123 123 8 123 12 123 123 5 123 12 123 123 pe 123 12 123 123 6 123 12 123 123 123 123 123 12 12 123 123 123 123 123 12 4 123 123 123 12 123 123 123 12 123 123 123 12 12 123 123 123 123 123 123 12 12 2547 2 123 123 123 12 123 123 123 12 123 123 12 123 123 123 12 123 123 123 12 12 123 123 123 123 123 123 12 12 0 Household Gov't C Private I Public I Exports Imports GDP GDP C ( 2) : 8.2 2547 5.5 2548 30.5 2547 50 2 2545 2547 2548 5 3.3 11.2 2545 ( ) 2.8 2547 4.5 2548 ( 2 ) 4.4 5.9 ( ) 4.3 8.4 2547 5 7 °Õ'Ë 2: ·«,å¡ß`øáÕ 2546 2548 4.5 2542 ( 9 ) 2546 17.7 ( 3) 2547 9.9 ( 22 ) 6 1 2545 ( 15 ) 9 9.4 2547 7.8 2546 2-3 2547 4 25 33 ( 4) Yª'Ë 3: Õ--µ"ß`øáÕ, 2545-2548 Yª'Ë 4: Õ--µ"ß`øáÕ"¬¥Õ (year-on-year) 20 Headline Inflation Headline Inflation Raw Food Raw Food 18 Transport&Communication Transport&Communication 16 Energy Energy 30 Core Inflation 14 Core Inflation 25 t cen 12 20 erP 10 tnecr 15 8 Pe 10 6 4 5 2 0 .l 8 r . . y p v 9n 4 0 na 4a 5 .Ju .. .. 5 2 Ma . . Se Ma No 2 2545 2002 2546 2003 2547 2004 2548 2005 2005J.. ..2006J : : 0.5 2547 17 GDP 10 4.6 15.5 2547 ( 2) 6 8 F GDP ( ) GDP ( 2) 25 25 4 8 GDP 1.8 GDP 2.1 GDP 9 ( ) 7 7 100 2548 2538 2539 8 8 4 9 40 ( ) 10 14.4 2548 9 26 GDP GDP 2548 ( 5) 52 3.1 50.9 30 GDP 31.7 2547 33 Yª'Ë 5: ¥ÿ°"§å"·­¥ÿ--TM'¥` ­æ--¥, ( 5 ) 2546-2549 (ª­¡"°") 10 8 GDP 8 6 6 2548 4 4 no P 2 2 DD llii GG GDP 46.4 B 0 0 f -2 %o GDP ( 4 ) US$ -2 -4 -4 -6 -8 -6 -10 -8 2546 2003 2004 2547 2548 2005 2006p 2549 ( ) Current Account Trade Account Current Account (%GDP)GDP) ( of 30 25 Trade AccountGDP) of GDP) ( (% : 10 Yª'Ë 6: °"`,¿§ÌÈ"¡--´` ¥'´ øøá" TMÈÕæ`ß·¢Áß ( 6) ·­·°ç ,´OEÕ, 2545-2548 400,000 50,000 ( 3 ) 350,000 ) ) ntelavi 40,000 ) ) 300,000 ntelavi quel 250,000 quel 30,000 oi oi e e udrc( 200,000 ( udrc( ( y 20,000 y da 150,000 da r r pe pe L 100,000 L B B B 10,000 B 50,000 0 0 2002 2545 2546 2003 2004 2547 2548 2005 benzene (LHS) ( ) diesel (LHS) ( ) electricity (LHS) ( ) solid fossil fuel((LHS)) gasohol (RHS) ) ( : 10 2547 2548 10 F °Õ'Ë 3: °"æ--"æ--ßß"¥··­TMÈÕæ`ßTM'«¿"æ,,ª­»¬ 60 (ENCON) 2537 2546 0.5 2545 8 2554 Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) 4-5 2548 25 2555 (E10: 90 10) (B3: 3 ) 2546 3 2548 (91 95) 7.5 2546 6.5 2548 5.5 2545 2523 2532 2548 GDP 2-3 2547 11 ( ) 60 GDP ( ) 2545 11 , 20 (2549) 11 °Õ'Ë 4: À'È ""­¢Õ߬ 2542 GDP 12 2.6 2542 3.3 2548 GDP 57 2542 46 (FIDF) 56 2548 36 2542 2542 2548 ( 7) Yª'Ë 7: À'È ""­ ·ãßµ"¡ºYå°Y嬡 Yª'Ë 8: À'È ""­¿"¬,,ª­» ·­À'ȵã"ߪ­» 100 3.5 FIDF Non-financial SOE 90 Central Gov 3.0 80 70 2.5 60 noliilrT 2.0 50 40 1.5 30 1.0 20 0.5 10 0 0.0 2542 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2542 1999 2000 2543 2001 2544 2002 2545 2003 2546 2004 2547 2005 2548 Domestic External : : 2542 2548 14.4 2 3 2542 18 2542 30 ( 8) 560 2542 350 2548 ( 9) 2545 Yª'Ë 9: À'ȵã"ߪ­»¢Õß--"°"ß Yª'Ë 10: À'È¿"¬,,ª­»¢Õß--"°"ß ·­--«` "À°`®'Ë¡`,,TMã "--°"ß` ·­--«` "À°`®'Ë¡`,,TMã "--°"ß` 600 Central Gov Central Gov 1800 1600 Non-financial SOE 500 Non-financial SOEs FIDF 1400 tha 400 tha 1200 B B 1000 n 300 n iolli iolli 800 B 200 B 600 400 100 200 0 0 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 : : 12 (NFSOEs) (FIDF) (NFSOEs) 12 F 2542 2548 2.7 1.7 2542 2 3 ( 10) 2 257 2546 2548 ( 11) 188 2547 5 Yª'Ë 11: À'È¢Õß--" ã«°"ß Yª'Ë 12: À'È¢Õß--«` "À°`®'Ë¡`,,TMã "--°"ß` --Èß'˧ÌÈ"ª­°--·­¡`¥å§ÌÈ"ª­°-- 2.0 1,200 12DomesticDebt Debt (Non-Guaranteed Debt) ( ) (Non-Guaranteed) Debt) ( Loans for 12External ) 1.8 Domestic Debt( (Guaranteed Debt) restructuring External Debt (Guaranteed Debt) ( ) 1.6 1,000 external loans 1.4 Bonds for bank recapitalization 123 123 1234 123 123 123 123 123 1.2 tha 800 123 n 1234 123 123 123 123 1234 1234 123 123 123 123 1234 lioilrT1.0 Bonds fnancing Bfo 1234 123 123 123 123 1234 1234 sn 600 1234 123 123 123 123 1234 1234 FIDF FIDF 1234 123 123 123 123 1234 1234 0.8 io 1234 123 123 123 123 1234 1234 lli 1234 123 123 123 123 1234 1234 1234 123 123 123 123 1234 1234 0.6 B 123 123 123 123 1234 1234 12 1212 1 12 Budget Deficit 400 123 123 123 1234 1234 123 123 1234 1234 0.4 12 1212 1 1212 12 Financing 123 1234 1234 12 1212 1 1212 12 12 1234 12341234 0.2 12 1212 1 1212 12 12 1212 1 1212 12 12External 200 Debt 0.0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 0 19254 20254 20254 20254 25420 25420 20254 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 : : 6 2548 6 2542 12.5 40 2548 ( 12) Yª'Ë 13: À'È¢Õß--«` "À°`®'˪ö "--°"ß` Yª'Ë 14: À'È¢Õß--«` "À°`®'˪ö "--°"ß` --Èß'˧ÌÈ"°"ª­°--·­¡`¥å§ÌÈ"ª­°-- 1200 20 1,100 1,000 18 1000 900 16 800 tha 14 800 P tha 700 B 12 D fo GGDPf Bfo 600 sn 600 10 o sn 500 % 8 illio 400 illio As B B400 6 300 4 200 200 1234 1234 12345 1234 2 100 1234 1234 12345 12345 1234 1234 12345 12345 1234 1234 1234 0 0 0 2544 2001 2545 2002 2546 2003 2547 2004 2005* 2548* 2544 2001 2002 2545 2003 2546 2004 2547 2005* 2548* 12 External Debt (Guaranteed Debt) ( ) 12Domestic Debt (Guaranteed Debt) ( ) External Domestic As % ofGDP GDP External Debt (Non-Guaranteed Debt) ( ) Domestic Debt((Non-Guaranteed Debt) ) : : * 2548 * 2548 (SOEs) 10 GDP (SFIs) 2544 2548 GDP 7 2544 18 2546 10 2548 ( 13) 350 2545 300 13 2546 (AMCs) 3 2544 2548 3.5 2544 ( 13) 1 µ""ß'Ë 1: À'È ""­ ·­À'È--«` "À°`®'˪ö "--°"ß` 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 29.0 24.0 19.1 17.9 15.7 26.2 22.4 17.9 16.6 14.7 12.9 10.9 8.9 7.8 6.0 13.3 11.5 8.9 8.8 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 * 2.8 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 71.0 76.0 80.9 82.1 84.3 62.8 58.1 55.7 64.6 67.1 25.9 35.5 32.4 39.2 40.0 16.6 13.2 12.7 15.4 17.1 20.3 9.3 10.6 9.9 10.0 * 8.2 17.9 25.2 17.6 17.3 ( ) 3,259.7 3,641.3 3,945.4 3,844.8 4,033.1 GDP 63.5 66.8 66.5 59.1 56.8 : * 2546 2548 °Õ'Ë 5: À'ȵã"ߪ­»¢Õ߬ 2542 30 GDP 2548 50.9 95 13 85 2542 15 2548 18 GDP 8 3.5 1 3 2542 2548 2542 2548 67 20 GDP 2548 GDP 21 2542 33 2548 ( 16) 13 14 F Yª'Ë 15: À'È ""­µã"ߪ­» ·­ Yª'Ë 16: À'ȵã"ߪ­»­¬­ --È·­­¬­¬"« À'ȵã"ߪ­»'Ë¡`,,TMãÀ'È ""­ Long-term 100% 12 123 Short-term 12 123 Commercial Banks Total External debt as %GDP GDP 100 90 80% 12 123 12 12Bank 80 of Thailand 80 70 60% 60 Private Enterprise $S t U 60 50 40% no cen Financial SOE 40 llii 40 erP 20% B 30 Public 20 20 0% 10 4 5 6 7 8 0 0 2542001 2002 254 2542003 254 2004 2542005 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 : : 6 10 2542 2548 32 2548 18 GDP 37 2542 31 2542 19 2548 ( 17) 2547 2548 (FDI) 2 2 5 2548 10 2548 19 2542 10-16 6 ( 18) Yª'Ë 17: À'ȵã"ߪ­»¿"§Õ°TM Yª'Ë 18: "¬®ã"¬¿"­À'ȵã"ߪ­» ·­ --¥ ã«¿"­À'ȵã"ߪ­» 45 Long-term 40 Debt service payments (LHS) ( ) Short-term Exports((LHS)) 40 140 25 Total as %GDPGDP 35 Debt service ratio (RHS) ( ) 35 120 30 20 $S 30 25 100 U 25 $S 15 no 20 tnecr U 80 20 n tnecr illi Pe 60 B 15 10 Pe 15 illio B 40 10 10 5 5 5 20 0 0 0 0 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 : : 15 2.2 §«"¡¬"°® Yª'Ë 19: "¬¥å©'ˬ¢Õߧ--«Õ,,¿"§°...µ ·­Õ°¿"§°...µ ªÇ 2547 2543 2547 9,000 12.8 7.08 Agriculture sector 8,000 5 4 Non-agriculture sector h 7,000 14 ont 6,000 m 5,000 21.3 11.3 on/srep/ / 4,000 / 3,000 hta B 2,000 1,000 0 Thaila B C No N angk ent nd ok ral rth ortheastern Sout h 90 : ( 18) Yª'Ë 20: --¥ ã«¢Õß°"°­®"¬"¬¥å ®Ì"·°ªö 5 ­¥-- ªÇ 2547 60 50 40 t cen 30 15 (Gini-coefficient) 0.5 erP 20 20 10 4 20 55 0 1st Poorest 2nd poor 3th poor 4th rich 5th richest ( 19) quintile 1 quintile 2 quintile3 quintile 4 20% (20%) 5 (20%) 20% quintile 2.3 ¿"«­·«¥åÕ¡¿"¬Õ° : 10.5 2546 2548 2546 14 10.5 53 59 15 (Gini-coefficient) 0 56 10 10 20 20 2550 ( 2) 2 (Gini-coefficient) 1 2548 2549 16 F µ""ß'Ë 2: ¿"«­·«¥åÕ¡"ß»...°`®­À«ã"ߪ­» 2547 2548 2549 GDP 3.8 3.3 3.3 (PPP ) 4.9 4.3 4.3 OECD 3.1 2.7 2.9 4.0 3.5 3.4 1.9 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.6 2.5 3.2 10.3 6.5 8.4 G7 a/ (CPI Inflation) 2.1 2.6 2.2 - 37.7 53.4 59.0 - 30.6 41.5 10.5 17.5 13.4 -3.7 LIBOR (US$. 6 ) 1.6 3.6 5.1 : DEC Prospects Group 9 2549 a/ 2538 55 63 OPEC 16 ( ) 59 2549 54 2550 2546 2548 3.8 2547 OPEC 3.3 2548 OECD 3.1 2547 2.7 2548 2.9 2549 ( 2) 16 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) WTI 61.5 (Light crudes) WTI 2 10.3 2547 OPEC (Heavier crudes) WTI 7 2548 3-4 4 2549 17 G7 Yª'Ë 21: ¬Õ¥¢"¬Õÿª°è°÷Ëßµ--«Ì"¢Õß,° (æ--å"À'¬ À--oe, ©'ˬ§ËÕ'Ë "¡¥Õ) G7 2.6 °--¬"¬ 2538 ñ ¡°"§¡ 2549 25 Asia ex Japan as % of World Sales: : Asia excl Japan G7 December 1995: 19.3% 2538: 19.3% Japan December 1998: 23.5% 2541: 23.5% Europe 2.2 20 December 2001: 33.5% 2544: 33.5% Americas Jan 2006: 2549: 44.9% 44.9% 15 10 5 0 . .47 . .48 2545 40 59-l . .38 69-l . .39 79-l . .40 89-l . .41 99-l . .42 00-l . .43 10-l . .44 20-l . .45 30-l . .46 40-l 50-l Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju 3.7 : Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International 6 2549 28 6 Yª'Ë 22: ¬Õ¥ --Ëß´ÈÕ·­¬Õ¥¢"¬Õÿª°è°÷Ëßµ--«Ì" (,,Õ¡`°"ÀÕ æ--å"À'¬ À--oe, ©'ˬ§ËÕ'Ë "¡¥Õ), °°Æ"§¡ 2541 ñ ¡°"§¡ 2549 3500 1.6 7 6 Billings Bookings Book-to-Bill (Right Scale) ( ) 1.4 3000 1.2 2500 1.0 2000 0.8 2548 1500 0.6 2547 2548 1000 0.4 (Semiconductor) 500 0.2 13.6 0 0.0 2548 18 18 29 29 2 9 30 52 52 5 2 63 63 63 4 7 74 74 85 49 49 4 30 340 4 40 41 44 1 441 4 4 40 40 4 40 40 85 845 4 40 .-l .- .r-9 49 4. 9- .-l .r-0 .0-l .- .r-0 . 0-l .0- .r-0 40 4. 0- 4.r-0 .-l .-l .- . .-l .- .r-0 .0-l .- .a .a .a .a .a . .a .Ju .Ju .Ju . Ju .Ju .Ju r-0a .Ju .Ju 2549 ( .Nov M . Nov M .Nov M .Nov M . Nov M .Nov M .Nov M .Nov 21) : Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International 2548 ( 22) 2549 2546 2547 17 2.4 °" ãßÕÕ° 2548 17 East Asia and 15 22 2547 Pacific Regional Update, 2549 18 F Yª'Ë 23: --¥ ã«°" ãßÕÕ°,¥¬©'ˬ¢Õ߬ª¬--ß¿Y¡`¿"§ÕTM'¬µ­«--ÕÕ°* ·­ª­»ÕËÊ ,,,° ­À«ã"ᦀ 2537-2539 ·­ ªÇ 2545-2547 28% 36% East Asia* * The rest of the world 64% 72% 2537-2539 1994-1996 2002-2004 2545-2547 : : * Yª'Ë 24: Õ--µ"°"¢¬"¬µ--«¢Õߪ`¡"°" ãßÕÕ° Yª'Ë 25: Õ--µ"°"¢¬"¬µ--«¢Õß"¬¥å®"°°" ãßÕÕ°¢Õߪ­» 2545-2548 §Yã·¢ãß ,,Yªß`À'¬ À--oe ¡°"§¡ ÷ß µÿ"§¡ 2548 15 12 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 5 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 -o-yy, 0 12 12 12 12 12 ntec 12 12 pe -5 12 12 12 12 -10 12 12 -15 ) ( 2545 2002 2546 200312 2547 2004 2548 2005 Agricultural products 12Fishery products Manufactured products Total : : 28 36 ( 22) 45 65 2548 2545- 2547 ( 23) 18 ( 10 85 84 87) 34 18 ( 43 85) 18.8 18.3 2547 2.3 2548 19 ( 85 84 87) 2548 44 2547 2548 15 ( 20 2547) 2.3 18-20 12 2548 ( 24) 2548 ( 30) ( 28) ( 25) 3 2547 µ""ß'Ë 3: `§å" ãßÕÕ°¢Õ߬ `Õ--¥--·°,,ªÇ 2547 ·­ 2548 ( ) 2547 2548 (HS Code) 1 85 21.0 18.3 19.4 18.8 2.3 3.3 2 84 16.4 23.0 18.3 17.6 22.5 25.5 3 87 6.0 40.1 10.2 7.4 41.3 17.1 4 40 5.7 23.6 6.5 5.7 13.4 5.3 5 39 4.7 33.0 7.0 5.4 32.2 10.5 6 27 3.5 61.0 8.0 4.3 39.7 9.7 7 16 3.0 9.1 1.5 3.1 16.7 3.5 8 71 2.7 4.9 0.8 2.9 21.7 4.1 9 10 3.0 51.6 6.0 2.1 -16.9 -3.4 10 03 1.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 9.9 1.3 : 20 F 2549 ( (HS 85) ) 2549 (HS 84) 2549 4 5 - - - µ""ß'Ë 4: `§å" ãßÕÕ° Yß ÿ¥Àå"Õ--¥--·°,,À¡«¥ 85 ,,ªÇ 2546 ÷ß Õߥշ°¢Õᦀ 2549 ( ) 2546 2547 2548 . .- . . 2548 . .- . . 2549 HS 15.5 100.0 18.3 100.0 2.3 100.0 -5.5 100.0 12.6 100.0 85 8542 39.8 27.0 5.8 24.1 12.7 26.6 -16.1 23.0 52.9 31.2 8528 1.0 6.6 44.9 8.1 1.0 8.0 37.3 8.7 -19.2 6.2 8534 24.4 4.3 75.6 6.4 -3.0 6.1 60.1 8.1 -27.2 5.2 8541 -6.1 7.9 -20.3 5.3 -24.4 4.0 -25.0 4.6 -2.4 4.0 8517 24.1 6.3 -2.3 5.2 -1.8 5.0 -38.5 4.1 4.4 3.8 : µ""ß'Ë 5: `§å" ãßÕÕ° Yß ÿ¥Àå"Õ--¥--·°,,À¡«¥ 84 ,,ªÇ 2546 ÷ß Õߥշ°¢Õᦀ 2549 ( ) 2546 2547 2548 . .- . . 2548 . .- . . 2549 HS 17.8 100.0 23.0 100.0 22.5 100.0 7.9 100.0 32.9 100.0 84 8471 58.9 34.9 19.3 33.9 56.1 43.1 7.1 33.0 75.4 43.6 8473 -18.5 28.3 0.2 23.0 -13.7 16.2 3.1 23.4 -5.3 16.7 8415 29.8 11.2 37.9 12.6 9.3 11.2 7.8 12.4 22.3 11.4 8418 22.2 4.1 28.6 4.3 20.9 4.2 18.1 4.5 15.1 3.9 8407 291.4 1.6 292.0 5.0 -18.9 3.3 -12.0 4.4 3.9 3.5 : 21 µ""ß'Ë 6: `§å" ãßÕÕ°¢Õ߬ª®' `Õ--¥--·°,,ªÇ 2547 ·­ 2548 ( ) 2547 2548 (HS Code) 1 84 24.4 33.2 30.6 28.6 50.5 42.8 2 85 13.4 20.7 11.5 13.5 29.9 13.9 3 40 12.5 14.0 7.7 10.6 9.5 4.1 4 27 9.3 6.6 2.9 8.9 23.2 7.5 5 39 8.7 44.6 13.4 8.8 31.0 9.3 6 29 4.7 15.3 3.1 5.3 45.2 7.3 7 07 3.0 64.1 5.9 3.2 38.7 4.0 8 44 2.9 49.9 4.9 2.5 10.2 1.0 9 72 1.5 -41.2 -5.2 2.4 108.7 5.6 10 10 3.2 132.5 9.0 2.1 -12.8 -1.4 : 43 5 19 20 2549 19 ( ) 6 F 2548 19 2549 21 1.01 20 8 50,000 4 2543 2549 22 F Yª'Ë 26: Õ--µ"°"¢¬"¬µ--«¢Õß°"`,¿§¢Õß 01 08 (HS02) ¿"§§--«Õ·­ 㫪­°Õ¢Õß°"`,¿§ 'Ë Ì"§--, ªÇ 2546 - 2548 21 40 2546 2003 122004 12 2547 2005 2548 281 35 2548 190 30 2547 25 02 ( ) t 20 123 123 05 ( ) 15.8 cenreP15 123 123 123 123 123 123 10 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 5 0.8 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 0 -5 EA&CE* Agricultural, Hotel and Transport Transport Total * Fishand Restaurants Equipment Services Consumption Fisheries Products - 2548 : : * , , 22 2548 09-99 33.7 2548 24.8 Yª'Ë 27: ­¥--"§"ÌÈ"¡--´` ÌÈ"¡--¥'´ ·­·°ç ,´OEÕ, ªÇ 2545-2548 573 26 2548 720 24 22 20 18 2.5 °"`,¿§¢Õß¿"§§--«Õ 16 14 12 10 2545 2546 2547 2548 4.4 5.9 2547 : 2545 22 5,121 843 ( 26) 23 24.7 2547 ( 20 2548 278 27) 2548 2553 6,583 2,682 21 20 2548 01-08 HS01 ( ), HS02 ( 575 ), HS03 ( ), HS04 ( ), 2548 HS05 ( ), HS06 ( ), HS07 ( ) 2553 HS08 ( ) 23 01-08 2549 23 Yª'Ë 28: Õ--µ"°"¢¬"¬µ--«¢Õß"§"æ--ßß", ªÇ 2545-2548 18 16 14 12 y o- y-, 10 2541 ntecreP 8 6 4 2 0 2545 2002 2546 2003 2004 2547 2548 2005 : 2548 Yª'Ë 29: ¥--TM'"§" `§å" ãßÕÕ° ¥--TM'"§" `§å"Ì"¢å" 2548 4.5 ·­ Õ--µ"°"§å", ªÇ 2545-2548 2541 17.7 160 86 85 2545 35 ( 28) 140 84 120 83 100 ( 32) xed 82 xed 80 In In 81 60 80 40 79 5.1 20 78 ( 29) 0 77 2545 2002 2546 2003 2547 2004 2548 2005 Export price index((LHS) ) Import price index (LHS) Terms of trade (RHS) ( ) ( ) : 1 ( 31) (Disposable Income) 2-3 ( 34) ( 30) 1,027.8 2547 615.3 ( 24 F Yª'Ë 30: ¥--TM'§«"¡TMËÕ¡--Ë¢ÕߺYå`,¿§, 32) ¡°"§¡ 2547 ñ ¡°"§¡ 2549 412.5 115 110 105 100 x 95 ndeI 90 85 80 24 75 70 40-n7 47 74 58 85 96 4 4 4740 4 4 4850 40 . . .- r-0p 4.0-l .t- 50-n8 r-0p 4.0-l .t- n Ja . .Ju .Ju .. . .. A .Oc Ja A .Oc .Ja Yª'Ë 33: ­¥--·­Õ--µ"°"¢¬"¬µ--«¢Õß°"`,¿§ `§å"§ß'Ë·å®`ß, 2540-2547 : 300,000 Level of real durables consumption 30 Growth of real durables consumption Yª'Ë 31: Õ--µ"°"¢¬"¬µ--«¢Õߥ--TM'°"`,¿§¢Õß¿"§Õ°TM 20 250,000 ·­ 㫪­°Õ, ¡°"§¡ 2548 ñ ¡°"§¡ 2549 10 200,000 y 25 t ah 0 B n 150,000 20 llioi -10 o--y,tnecr M pe 100,000 15 -20 y o- 50,000 y-, 10 -30 ntecreP 0 -40 5 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 0 : -5 85 85 8 8 8 85 48 05 4805 4 40 05 48 05 4 4850 405 05 48 4805 40 49 . 06 . .- . . .-l . . n- .-0r .r 450-t .-c . v- . aJ .b-e . y-a g-u Yª'Ë 34: À'È¿"§§--«ÕµãÕ"¬¥å'Ë,,TMå®ã"¬¥å .F . .Ju . .o . Ma Ap n-uJ ..A p-eS ..Oc .De n-aJ M N Composite PCI Electricity consumption Value added Tax Import of consumer goods ªÇ 2543, 2545 ·­ 2547 : 2004 2547 2545 All households 2002 2000 2543 Yª'Ë 32: °"`,¿§ÌÈ"¡--´` ·­·°ç ,´OEÕ ·­¥'´, 2545-2548 Income<90,000 < 90,000 2000 8000 90,000 - 200,000 90,000I>200,000 200,000 lite no 1000 4000 no illi illi M M 3000 0 20 40 60 80 500 2000 Percent 1000 0 0 : 2547 2545 2002 2546 2003 2547 2004 2548 2005 Gasohol (LHS) ) Benzene (RHS) ( ) Benzene andGasohol (RHS) ( ) 24 10 : 25 (2540-2541) 2541 2539 2542 2.6.1 °"ßÿ¿"§Õ°TM 2540 2547 ( 33) 2546 11.3 2545 2547 2543 1.5 2547 2543 1.3 ( 34) 7 2-3 5.5 2548 8 2547 (FDI) 21 2.6 °"ßÿ 2549 2547 ( 7) 3 µ""ß'Ë 7: ¥--TM'°"¢¬"¬µ--«¢Õߺº`µÕÿµ "À°¡ ( ) 2546 2547 2548 100.0 13.9 11.5 9.2 30 34.0 15.6 9.8 0.3 30 60 30.9 8.6 7.6 4.9 60 35.1 17.3 17.0 22.6 : : * 26 F 25 2543 2 ( 35) 11 ( ) 2547 6.6 2548 2543 ( 6) 2547 2548 Yª'Ë 35: Õ--µ"¥Õ°'Ȭß`,,Àå°Y嬡 ß`øáÕ'Ë°`¥®"°¥--TM'"§" ºYåº`µ ·­Õ--µ"¥Õ°'Ȭ'Ë·å®`ß 2546-2548 ( 37) 10 GDP 8 2546 2547 6 t 4 cen erP 20 2 0 -2 -4 2003 2546 2547 2004 2548 2005 Lending rate Inflation PPI Real interest rate : Yª'Ë 36: °"¢¬"¬µ--«¢Õß°"ßÿ¿"§Õ°TM °"¢¬"¬µ--« ¢Õߺº`µ¿"§Õÿµ "À°¡ ·­Õ--µ" °",,TMå°Ì"--ß°"º`µ 2545-2548 20 74 ( 18 72 ) 16 nge 70 ha 14 33 ( 38) C 68 12 geatnecreP t 10 66 cen 25 8 erP 64 2 2545 ul 6 nan 62 4 A 60 2 0 58 2545 2002 2546 2003 2004 2547 2548 2005 ( 39) Private Investment Growth (LHS) ) ( Manufacturing Production Growth (LHS) ( ) Capacity Utilization ((RHS) ) 25 : (MLR) 27 °Õ'Ë 6: Õߧ読°Õ¢ÕßÕ--µ"°"®`µ`,µ¢Õß°"ßÿ¿"§Õ°TM,,ª­»¬ . . 2540 . . 2542 . . 2523 . . 2543 ( . . 2503 . . 2547) 26 1 1 +2.98% +30.65% a/ +0.78% b/ +0.34% +3.50% -0.19% -1.91% -0.10% +0.07% +0.05% +0.51% a/ = GDP b/ : Jongwanich and Konpaiboon, Determinants of Private Investment in Thailand (forthcoming). 26 ( ) 1 28 F Yª'Ë 37: Õ--µ"·°ª'ˬ'Ë·å®`ß, 2541-2548 2545 5 90 8 2547 ( 40) 85 0) 10 ( 8) 100) 94= 37= 80 19( 25 ( exdnI 75 2547 70 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 25419 25419 25420 25420 25420 25420 25420 25420 Yª'Ë 39: ª`¡"°",,TMåÌÈ"¡--¥'´ ÌÈ"¡--TMÈÕæ`ß·­øøá" : : 400,000 ) ntel 350,000 ) Yª'Ë 38: §ã"©'ˬã«ßÌÈ"À--°¢Õߧã"°­· øøá" va 300,000 qui ·­"§"ªÅ,µ'¬¡'Ë,,TMå,,¿"§Õÿµ "À°¡ Eli 250,000 O 200,000 16 deur C( t ( 150,000 14 ya uni D r ntel 100,000 12 pe vai L B 50,000 quel 10 B 0 oi e 8 2545 2002 2546 2003 2004 2547 2005 2548 udrc 6 ( ) ( ) rep Diesel (LHS) Fuel Oil (RHS) Electricity (LHS) ( ) hta 4 B : EPPO 2 0 Yª'Ë 40: °"¢¬"¬µ--«¢Õß `TMËÕ,,¿"§ÿ°`® 2545 2002 2546 2003 2004 2547 2548 2005 °"ß`** ªÇ 2545-2548 : : 10 9 eg 8 anh 7 C egat 6 5 cenreP 4 alun 3 2547 ( 35) An 2 1 0 2545 2002 2546* 2003* 2004 2547 2548 2005 2 3 : : * ISIC 2546 ** 29 µ""ß'Ë 8: Õ--µ"°"¢¬"¬µ--«¢Õß `TMËÕ¢Õß"§"æ"`TM¬è ( ) 2547 2548 * * 100.0 8.3 100.0 8.8 16.0 11.3 16.3 9.2 12.9 -0.7 12.3 10.0 71.1 11.1 71.4 6.6 27.3 16.1 27.4 4.7 2.0 23.3 2.1 9.1 3.0 13.9 2.8 5.7 17.4 6.1 17.5 3.1 3.7 22.7 3.7 9.9 4.3 41.0 4.4 10.5 7.4 15.1 8.1 9.7 ** 6.0 -3.8 5.5 -3.8 : : * 2547 2 ** 21.3 2547 ( 41) (BOI) ( 2 2546 2547 ( 42) ) 2 2548 ( ) 2546 ( 2549 ) BOI 2547 2546 65 2548 1.6 30 F Yª'Ë 41: °"¢¬"¬µ--«¢Õßß`ßÿ,¥¬µß®"°µã"ߪ­» 10 9 8 7 27 $S U 6 fo sn 5 io ill 4 B ( 44 3 3 2 ) 1 0 Yª'Ë 43: --¥ ã«°"ßÿ¿"§Õ°TMµãÕ GDP Avg 2002 2545 2546 2003 2004 2547 2548 2005 2531/35 1988/92 ·­Õ--µ"°"µ`,µ Share of PI in Real GDPGDP (LHS) ( ) : 25 20 Growth Rate of PI (RHS) ( ) 18 Yª'Ë 42: °"Õÿ¡--µ`,§ß°"°"ßÿ,¥¬µß 20 16 nge 14 ®"°µã"ߪ­»¢Õß BOI ha C P 15 12 D GGD gea 10 100% foreign equity 0% fo 400 10%