41078 January 2007 Growth Prospects income inequality and potentially Are Strong, severe environmental pressures, predicts the World Bank. but Social, According to Global Economic Environmental Prospects 2007: Managing the Next Wave of Globalization, Pressures from growth in developing countries will reach a near record 7 percent Globalization Need this year. In 2007 and 2008, growth will probably slow, but still likely MoreAttention exceed 6 percent, more than twice the rate in high-income countries, which is expected to be 2.6 WASHINGTON, DC, December percent. 13,2006­Globalizationcouldspur faster growth in average incomes On how globalization will shape in the next 25 years than during the global economy over the next 1980-2005, with developing coun- 25 years, the report's `central tries playing a central role. How- scenario' predicts that the global ever, unless managed carefully, it economy could expand from $35 could be accompanied by growing trillion in 2005 to $72 trillion in 2030. "While this outcome represent The report's`central scenario'predicts that the global economy could only a slight acceleration of global expand from $35 trillion in 2005 to $72 trillion in 2030. growth compared to the past 25 years, it is driven more than ever before Continueonpage2 AHope for a New Life: Two Years after the Tsunami StoryandphotobyTinnakornSareenun On December 26, 2004, Thailand was hit by one of the worst natural disasters in history. The waves ravaged several villages along the Kingdom's Andaman Coastline, causing unprecedented losses of human lives and damages to properties in six southern provinces. The fishing village of Ban Nam Khem in Phang-Nga province, 790 kilometers south of Bangkok, was hit the hardest. As many as 850 people, out of the 4,478 population, have been killed or reported missing. In Villager Urai Sirisuk showing off her dry-fish products to addition, 948 of the villagers' homes and 439 fishing visitors, with a storage funded by the World Bank-JSDF boats have been destroyed, a serious blow to the projectinthebackground villagers' lives and livelihoods. Without a property of their own, the Sirisuk family "I lost my four-year-old daughter in the tsunami," was considered one of the village's poorest. To cope said Urai Sirisuk, 47, one of the Ban Nam Khem with the effects of the tsunami, Urai, her husband villagers affected by the tragedy. "Our rented house Chun, and her two children decided to leave ev- was also destroyed. We had no choice but to fight erything behind and moved to Ban Pru Tiew, a vil- for a new life." lage located 10 kilometers further inland from Ban Continueonpage3 Page1 GlobalEconomicProspects(Continuefrompage1) to international travel, purchase automobiles and other advanced consumer durables, attain by strong performance in developing countries," said international levels of education, and play a major Richard Newfarmer, the report's lead author and roleinshapingpoliciesandinstitutionsintheirown Economic Advisor in the Trade Department. "And countries and the world economy. while exact numbers will undoubtedly turn out to be different, the underlying trends are relatively impervious The next wave of globalization will likely intensify to all but the most severe or disruptive shocks." stresses on the "global commons," which could jeopardizelong-termprogress, Broad-based growth in de- thereportwarns. Nationswill veloping countries sustained havetoworktogethertoplaya over the period would signifi- larger role in issues involving cantly affect global poverty. global public goods ­ from "The number of people living on mitigating global warming, to less than $1 a day could be cut in containing infectious diseases half, from 1.1 billion now to 550 like avian flu, to preventing million in 2030. However, some the decimation of the world's regions,notablyAfrica,areatrisk fisheries. of being left behind. Moreover, income inequality could widen According to the report, within many countries, com- Videoconferenceinteractionsduringthelaunchofthereport global warming is a serious pounding current concerns over atChulalongkornUniversity,December13,2006 risk. Rising output means inequality between countries," that annual emissions of said Francois Bourguignon, World Bank Chief greenhouse gases will increase roughly 50 percent Economist and Senior Vice President, Develop- by 2030 and probably double by 2050 in the absence ment Economics. of widespread policy changes. To avoid this, policies will have to promote "clean" growth so Global trade in goods and services could rise more as to limit emissions to levels that will eventually than threefold to $27 trillion in 2030, and trade as stabilize atmospheric concentrations. Moreover, a share of the global economy will rise from one poor countries will need development assistance to quarter today to more than one-third. Roughly half adapt to coming environmental changes, including of the increase is likely to come from developing support for their participation in the carbon finance countries. Developing countries that only two market. decades ago provided 14 percent of manufactured imports of rich The authors conclude that the countries, today supply 40 percent, challenges of rapid globalization andby2030arelikelytosupplyover put new burdens on both national 65percent. Atthesametime,import policymakers and international demand from developing countries officials. Nationally, governments is emerging as a locomotive of the need to ensure that the poor are global economy. incorporatedintothegrowthprocess through pro-poor investments Continuing integration of markets in education, infrastructure, and willmakejobsaroundtheworldmore support mechanisms for dislocated subject to competitive pressures. workers. They need to support and "As trade expands and technologies invest in workers--all the while rapidly diffuse to developing countries, promoting rather than resisting unskilled workers around the world Richard Newfarmer, an economic advisor at the World Bank and the report's lead change. ­ as well as some lower-skilled white author,answering questions during the video collar workers ­ will face increasing conference Internationally, the report calls for competitionacrossborders,"explained stronger institutions for tackling Uri Dadush, Director of the World Bank's threats to the global commons. It also calls for Development Prospects Group and International more and better development assistance. Reducing Trade Department. "Rather than trying to preserve barriers to trade is vital as well, since it can create existing jobs, governments need to support dislocated new opportunities for poor countries and poor workers and provide them with new opportunities. people. "Revitalizing the Doha round of world trade Improving education and labor market flexibility is a key negotiations and concluding an agreement that benefits part of the long-run solution." the poor is urgent," said Mr. Dadush. Globalization is likely to bring benefits to many. By Interactive prospects for the global economy can be 2030, 1.2 billion people in developing countries--15 found at: http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook. percent of the world population--will belong to the "global middle class," up from 400 million today. For more information,please contact Dr.Kirida Bhaopichitr, Thisgroupwillhaveapurchasingpowerofbetween at +66 (0) 2686 8332 or email: kbhaopichitr@worldbank. $4,000 and $17,000 per capita, and will enjoy access org. Page2 A Hope for a New Life (Continue frompage1) Nam Khem. However, the heartbreaking mem- ory and the loss of their youngest proved too dif- ficult to forget ­ at least for her oldest daughter. "I was holding my sis- ter's hand while walk- ing back home," recalled Urai's daughter, Ying, 25. "Suddenly, I heard a thunderous sound be- hind me and saw these huge, strong waves com- ing at us so quickly and destroying everything. Honestly, I didn't think we were going to make it. Chun Sirisuk,Urai's hushand and one of the villagers who benefited from the World Bank project in Ban Nam Khem I tried to run for my life but was still holding my little sister's hand. We got is located, the bank has initiated a seafood processing separated later because the waves struck us so hard project, with almost 350,000 baht (roughly $10,000) in I couldn't hold her hand any longer." funding. The fund, part of the $5 million grant from the Japanese Government for tsunami-affected communities Ying was able to survive by holding on to a and vulnerable groups in Thailand, was provided floating mattress. Her little sister, however, was through Japan Social Development Fund (JSDF) not as fortunate. Her body has never been found ­ the Japanese Government's mechanism for delivering so she was presumed dead by the family and the development aid to the poorest and most vulnerable. Thai authorities. Having been pushed underwater during the tsunami, Ying herself had caught an ear Urai Sirisuk was among the 11 people from Ban infection resulting in a chronic earache. She still Nam Khem who benefited from this World Bank- sees her doctor every month now, but her family is administered project. They used the grants to finding it more and more difficult to pay the 2,000- buy and install new cold storage as well as other baht medical bills for her. equipmentsforseafoodprocessing,andtobuyfresh catchesfromotherfishermeninthe area. The catches would then be Bua contacted HIV from her husband,a one-legged fisherman who salted, dried or smoked and sold himself is also infected.During the tsunami,her husband lost another wholesale to markets, restaurants, leg,making it impossible for him to go fishing. and hotels in the province, as well as to tourists and retail shoppers. Two years have gone by; the Sirisuks are still struggling Another project under the JSDF funding is designed for to rebuild their lives, as are other fishing families in the tsunami victims living with HIV/AIDS. Many of the the tsunami-hit areas. To support the restoration of the victims in Phang-Nga were from the fishing community, victims' livelihoods, the World Bank has partnered which generally faced a higher risk of HIV infection than with World Vision Foundation Thailand in helping other demographic groups. While the tsunami victims the villagers acquire or replace economic assets lost in without HIV had received assistance to cope or deal with the disaster. In Takua Pa district, where Ban Nam Khem the shock and trauma, social stigma had prevented the HIV-infected tsunami victims from getting similar help, thus complicating and/or delaying their recovery. To address this issue, the World Bank has used part of the JSDF grants to set up the Friendships with No Boundary Group,acivilsocietyorganization,toprovidecounseling to the HIV-infected tsunami victims in Phang-Nga. The ultimate goal is to help them reintegrate into the communities through increased social awareness and acceptance. This project has enabled HIV-infected Bua, who asked that her true identity be concealed, to make friendswith20otherPeopleLivingwithHIV/AIDS Yum! Fried fish Continueonpage4 Page3 Continuefrompage3 (PLWHA) affected by the tsunami. Bua contacted Looking Ahead HIV from her husband, a one-legged fisherman who himself is also infected. During the tsunami, her husband lost another leg, making it impossible February2: "CountryDevelopmentPartnership for him to go fishing. Her neighbors had shunned inEducation(CDP-ED),"aseminarco-organized her family after discovering that they had HIV. Her by the Office of the Basic Education Commission eldestsonwasbulliedandostracizedatschool.Even and the World Bank - Siam City Hotel. During her husband's relatives abandoned them for fears the seminar, participants will review information that they would also get infected. "I was lonely and and lessons learned from the works of CDP-ED hopeless even before the tsunami struck," she said. in three areas: education financing, decentralized school-based management, and teacher But the partnership between the World Bank, World Vision and the JSDF has helped to reignite her development.TheCDP-EDisdesignedtosupport hope. Through assistance from Friendships with the Thai Ministry of Education in implementing No Boundary, Bua now has access to anti-retroviral the country's education reform, which includes treatment and is healthy enough to work again. The teacher development in core academic areas Group also provides transportation to hospital for such as mathematics and science, among other the victims and regularly organizes counseling for initiatives. This event starts at 9:00 am. For more those still suffering from trauma. Skill training was information on the CDP-ED, please contact Khun also provided for female tsunami victims living Achariya Kohtbantau, at +66 (0) 2686 8347, email: with HIV/AIDS. As a result, Bua is now a proud akohtbantau@worldbank.org. supporter of her family, earning income from sewing. Friendships with No Boundary also runs a series February 5: "Country Development Partnership of advocacy campaigns aimed at improving HIV/ in Health (CDP-H)," a launch ceremony, AIDS awareness in three Phang-Nga districts. followed by a joint press conference by the World This has essentially removed or reduced social Bank and the Ministry of Public Health, 9:00 am stigma facing them, said Yodying Chantrachok, a at the Ministry's Meeting Room 1 (2nd floor). Friendships with No Boundary volunteer. The CDP-H is the World Bank's latest effort to support the development of Thailand's health To Bua and her husband, however, being part of a group sector in three main areas: sustaining HIV/ that welcomed, accepted and understood what they had AIDS program financing and revitalizing HIV gone through ­ both before and after the tsunami ­ was prevention and impact mitigation, strengthening the best assistance from this project. "We made so many public expenditure management capacity in the friends after joining this group; they all are willing to heath sector, and evaluating and disseminating help one another," she said, smiling. "I'm not feeling lessons from the Thai experience in addressing down and lonely anymore. Now I just wanted to live heath sector in the Asia Pacific region. To register as long as possible and watch my children grow and be for this event and for more information on the CDP-H, successful." please contact Khun Achariya Kohtbantau, at +66 (0) 26868347,email:akohtbantau@worldbank.org. For more information on the Bank's Tsunami program in Thailand, please contact Khun Kwanchai Niyomthamkit, at+66(0)26868351oremail:kniyomthamkit@worldbank. org. Forcommentsorquestionsaboutthisnewsletter, Tel.:+66(0)26868300 pleasecontactMr.TinnakornSareenun Fax:+66(0)26868301 TheWorldBankOffice,Bangkok Email:tsareenun@worldbank.org SiamTower,30thFloor,989RamaIRoad,Pathumwan,Bangkok10330THAILAND Website:http://www.worldbank.or.th Page4