For Official Use Only CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CAS/CPS Data Country: Niger CAS/CPS Year: FY13 CAS/CPS Period: FY13 – FY16 CLR Period: FY13 – FY16 Date of this review: March 28, 2018 2. Ratings CLR Rating IEG Rating Development Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory WBG Performance: Good Good 3. Executive Summary i. This review of Niger’s Completion Report of the World Bank Group’s (WBG) Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) covers the period of the original CPS, FY13-16, and the Performance and Learning Review (PLR) of the CPS. ii. Niger is a landlocked and sparsely populated country in the Sahel region of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with significant deposits of uranium, gold, coal, and petroleum. Given its reliance on mining and oil exports, the country is exposed to external economic shocks directly and indirectly through the impact on its main trading partner, Nigeria. During the CPS period, GDP grew at a yearly average of 5.2 percent and its population at 3.9 percent. The country’s average GNI income per capita was $395, considerably well below the SSA average of $1,642. The deterioration in the primary budget deficit led to an increase in the public debt over GDP driven by an ambitious public investment program. Poverty incidence declined from 53.7 percent in 2005 to 44.5 percent in 2014, but remained stagnant in rural areas at 51.4 percent, while it dropped to 8.7 percent in the capital city and other urban areas. The 2016 UNDP Human Development Index (HDI) and the Gender Inequality Index ranked Niger amongst the lowest in the world-- 187 out of 188 and 157 out of 159 countries, respectively. Niger has suffered from conflict in neighboring countries. Niger hosts around 340,000 refugees and internally displaced persons. Climate change is affecting (rain-fed) agriculture -- the source of income for most of its population. iii. After a military coup in 2010, the new government elected in 2011 issued a Plan for Social and Economic Development (PDES) which identified five programmatic areas: (i) strengthening the credibility and efficiency of public institutions; (ii) creating the conditions for inclusive, sustainable and balanced development; (iii) food security and sustainable agricultural development; (iv) competitive and diversified economy for accelerated, inclusive growth; and (v) promotion of social development. The government envisaged rapid economic growth, high levels of public investment, and greater connection to the external world. The CPS, discussed by the WBG Board in March 29, 2013, was organized around two main pillars or focus areas: (a) promoting resilient growth and (b) reducing vulnerability and a cross-sectional pillar focused on governance and gender mainstreaming. The CPS had 11 objectives that were to address the critical challenges in the country. The Performance and Learning Review (PLR), discussed on May 29, 2015, retained the CPS structure, while introducing adjustments to take account of the implementation pace. CLR Reviewed by: Panel Reviewed by: CLR Review Manager/Coordinator: Luis Alvaro Sanchez Lev Freinkman Pablo Fajnzylber Consultant, IEGEC Consultant, IEGEC Manager, IEGEC Takatoshi Kamezawa, Senior Lourdes Pagaran Evaluation Officer, IEGEC Senior Evaluation Officer, IEGEC CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 2 iv. IEG rates the achievement of the CPS objectives as Moderately Satisfactory. Six out of eleven objectives were either achieved or mostly achieved. Delivery on CPS objectives was strong under the second focus area of reducing vulnerability. The number of poor and food insecure people covered by safety nets has increased; primary education completion rates have improved; more people in urban areas have access to water and sanitation services; and, more agricultural and silvo-pastoral areas have adopted sustainable land management practices in selected communes and local communities have incorporated climate resilience in their local development plans. The business environment has improved as evidenced by the number of registered enterprises and the country’s improved ranking in the 2018 Doing Business Report, yet there are remaining challenges. In addition, progress has been made in increasing productivity for selected agricultural crops. However, there was limited progress in fiscal consolidation and access to finance, as well as in transparency of budget outcomes. Niger’s withdrawal from the EITI is a concern. v. On balance, IEG rates WBG performance as Good. The CPS objectives were relevant to the country context, aligned with the Government Program and the corporate twin goals, and consistent with the comparative advantage of the WBG in the country. The program was ambitious relative to the limited country capacity and the multitude of risks the country was facing, which were well identified in the CPS. IDA’s financial support for Niger increased significantly compared to the previous CPS. The ASA program was focused and substantive, and supportive of new operations and the delivery of several CPS objectives. However, portfolio performance at exit as measured by IEG’s outcome rating of Moderately Satisfactory or better was well below the SSA and Bank-wide average. The risks to the sustainability of outcomes were significant to high, reflecting the underlying fragile environment. To manage the impact of the continued state of conflict in the neighboring countries, the Bank demonstrated flexibility during project implementation by tapping third parties, including Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and Monitoring agencies, to help with project supervision. The Bank also mainstreamed a large contingency component in Investment Project Financing (IPF) operations although there is no information on whether this facility was used during the CPS period. The Bank worked closely with Development Partners in critical areas through various modalities including co-financing in areas such as education. However, opportunities for internal WBG cooperation were few. Compliance with safeguards and fiduciary requirements appears strong. The main challenge has been the construction of the dam at Kandadji. The mid-term corrections at the PLR stage were minimal. With hindsight, a more thorough stock taking could have contributed to a sharpening of the results framework. vi. IEG concurs with the lessons in the CLR. IEG adds three additional lessons. • Institutional reforms would need to be more selective and sequenced and underpinned by a keen understanding of priorities in the context of weak capacity and high-risk environment. In the case of Niger, the institutional reforms were ambitious and broad as in the case of objective 1 (fiscal consolidation) in an environment deeply affected by external shocks (drop in export prices) and internal challenges (difficult political economy and low capacity). • In a fragile environment, the Bank’s flexibility is critical to ensure continued and effective program implementation. In the case of Niger, the Bank demonstrated flexibility during implementation by contracting third parties to help with project supervision. In following a flexible approach, the challenge is to build capacity to monitor contracts with third parties and to formalize and standardize the approach to facilitate scaling it up. • The effectiveness of Bank interventions in fragile environments is enhanced through working with other development partners and in partnership with local communities and established NGOs to mobilize resources, deepen knowledge of local circumstances and facilitate implementation. In Niger, the Bank has successfully worked with other development partners through co-financing and to deliver results in education, food security, managing climate change and extending coverage of safety nets. The CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 3 community and NGO engagements have been critical to the successful delivery of results in HIV/AIDS, climate change and food security. 4. Strategic Focus Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 1. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program. Niger is a landlocked and sparsely populated country in the Sahel region of Sub-Saharan Africa. Most of the 19.9 million inhabitants 1 live in the south of the country where most arable land is located. Niger has significant deposits of uranium, gold, coal, and petroleum. During the CPS period (2013-2016), GDP grew at a yearly average of 5.2 and population at 3.9 percent. Poverty incidence declined from 53.7 percent in 2005 to 44.5 percent in 2014; rural poverty, at 51.4 percent, was far higher than in the capital city and in other urban areas, at 8.7 percent. The 2016 UNDP Human Development Index (HDI) and the Gender Inequality Index ranked Niger at 187 out of 188 countries, and 157 of 159 countries, respectively. Niger hosts around 340,000 refugees and internally displaced persons. Most the population generates its income from rain-fed agriculture and livestock rearing and are vulnerable to climatic hazards and climate change. The country is also exposed to external economic shocks given its reliance on mining and oil exports and on Nigeria, its main economic partner. 2. After a military coup in 2010, and following elections in 2011 brought a new government that, in 2012, issued a Plan for Social and Economic Development (PDES), the country’s poverty reduction strategy. The PDES targeted 11 strategic results and identified 86 programs, clustered in five programmatic areas: (i) strengthening the credibility and efficiency of public institutions; (ii) creating the conditions for inclusive, sustainable and balanced development; (iii) food security and sustainable agricultural development; (iv) competitive and diversified economy for accelerated, inclusive growth; and (v) promotion of social development. The government envisaged rapid economic growth, high public investment, and greater connection to the global economy. 3. The WBG CPS was discussed at the Board in March 29, 2013. The CPS objectives were organized around three pillars: (a) promoting resilient growth and (b) reducing vulnerability. The third pillar was a cross-cutting theme on governance and gender mainstreaming. Under these three pillars were 11 CPS objectives. The Performance and Learning Review (PLR) discussed with the Board on May 29, 2015 retained the CPS structure while introducing adjustments to reflect the pace of implementation. 4. Relevance of Design. The CPS objectives were aligned with Niger’s development objectives. They were well-grounded on analytical work and anchored on a program that reflected the comparative advantage of the WBG. The objectives were supported by relevant WBG operations and ASA products. The WBG also worked closely with other development partners that provided related funding and technical assistance to the government directly or through co-financing. In a few cases, the instruments to support the objectives and deliver results were not well identified in the CPS, as in the case of SMEs and improving trade infrastructure. Several objectives, such as on fiscal consolidation, were pitched at a high level and were not aligned with WBG’s interventions. Finally, some important activities under the WBG’s country program were not captured and linked to the CPS objectives. For instance, the work around the Niger Basin Water Resources Development (i.e. the Kandadji Initiative) was not reflected in the results framework. Selectivity 5. Overall, the CPS program was not selective enough when considering the ambitious agenda and the internal and external challenges to implement it. The eleven objectives and the twenty-two targets/indicators were to be delivered in a low capacity, conflict environment. Policy design and reform coordination at the central government was weak, which was further aggravated by low capacity at the sector ministries and agencies and the local governments. 1 World Development Indicators, 2015 CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 4 Alignment 6. The CPS program was well aligned with the WBG corporate goals. Interventions that were directly focused on the poor included the work on safety nets, agricultural productivity, and climate change resilience. The interventions on water, sanitation and health education and skills were also aligned with the twin goals and were both relevant for poverty reduction and inclusion. The interventions on fiscal consolidation, improving the business environment and improving trade infrastructure sought to create an enabling environment for business and job creation and were critical to both shared prosperity and poverty reduction. 5. Development Outcome Overview of Achievement by Objective: 7. The assessment of CPS objectives is based on the updated program presented at the Progress and Learning Review (PLR) stage. Focus Area I: Promoting Resilient Growth 8. Objective 1: Fiscal Performance consolidated. This objective was supported by Shared Growth Credit DPO Series – Credits I, II, III (FY12, FY13, FY14); Reform Management and Technical Assistance Project (FY10); Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) (FY14); and PEMFAR Update (FY14). This objective had two outcomes and associated indicators. • Efficiency of tax and customs collections has improved. This outcome was to be measured by PEFA indicator 15 (PEFA-15) on the efficacy in collecting taxes and customs contributions, which was to improve from D+ (2013) to C (2016). PEFA-15 remained at D+, per the 2016 PEFA Report. Although taxes and customs were transferred relatively promptly to the treasury, a substantial amount of revenue arrears remained as full consolidation of the tax and customs accounts materialized only at the end of the year. Recent progress has been made in improving customs valuations. Since July 2017, a transaction-price valuation of imports for border tax purposes was introduced, backed by the newly adopted ASYCUDA software and a dedicated valuation unit, resulting in valuations substantially higher than previously applied. These recent gains notwithstanding, the outcome target was not achieved. • Treasury and debt management has improved. This outcome was to be measured by PEFA indicator 17 (PEFA-17) on monitoring and management of cash balances, debts and guarantees, which was to improve from C (2012) to B (2016.) The rating remained at C per the PEFA 2016 Report. Niger has yet to implement a Single Treasury Account, which could realize major improvements in cash management. This outcome target was not achieved. • In sum, the two outcome indicators did not fully capture the objective of fiscal consolidation. The February 2017 IMF Niger Ex-Post Assessment for the 2012-2016 Extended Credit Facility (ECF) noted a deterioration in the fiscal stance 2 and pointed to several factors as drivers of fiscal deterioration including exogenous shocks, repeated underperformance of revenue, short-falls in external financing, and the failure of the government to adjust spending in response to the shocks. Given the lack of progress in 2 The basic fiscal deficit (revenues minus expenditures net of externally financed capital expenditure) increased from 2.1 percent of GDP in 2013 to 6.4 percent in 2014, 7.5 percent in 2015 to then drop to 4.2 percent in 2016. The gross public debt rose from 26.9 percent of GDP in 2012 to 46.3 percent in 2016. Source: 2016 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, February 2017. IMF Country Report No. 17/59. CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 5 selected PEFA indicators, and limited progress towards broader fiscal consolidation. Objective 1 was Not Achieved. 9. Objective 2: Improved Investment Climate and Access to Finance for SMEs. This objective was supported through the Competitiveness and Growth Support Project (FY12); Shared Growth Credit DPO Series – Credits I, II, III (FY12, FY13, FY14); Niger Investment Climate Support (FY16); Strengthening Domestic Private Sector (FY13); Financial Sector Development Strategy (FY13); Financial Sector Strategy Implementation (FY16); Advisory on Rural Finance (FY14); and the IFC’s Trade Finance Guarantee (FY13). This objective had two outcome indicators. • Average number of new enterprises registered per year. The target was that 3,000 new enterprises would register in 2015, with 20 percent led by women. The June 2017 ISR for the Competitiveness and Growth Support Project reports 7,000 enterprises were registered by June 2016, of which 20 percent were led by women. The increase in enterprise registration was facilitated by regulatory improvements: the distance from the frontier for the ’Opening a Business’ Doing Business (DB) indicator increased from 54.48 in DB2014 to 93.65 in DB2018. The outcome target was achieved. • SMEs loan portfolio increased. The outcome target was to expand a loan portfolio to $23 million in 2016, with 20 percent of the loans benefitting female-owned SMEs. The CLR reports that information to verify this target is not available. The PLR had revised the target to fit IFC estimates of the impact. Through a regional bank present in Niger, IFC provided trade finance guarantees that amounted to a total of $6.8 million by 2015; but, the extent to which the IFC engagement contributed to this outcome target is unclear. Alternative sources on the SME lending trend in Niger are not available. The outcome target could not be verified. • The business environment showed improvements since 2013. The overall Doing Business distance relative to the frontier improved from 44.31 in DB2014 to 52.34 in DB2018. The IMF noted that while there were improvements in creating an enabling business environment, including shortening the time and procedures required to start a business, improving access to credit information, and making contract enforcement easier, there are remaining challenges including dealing with construction permits and paying taxes. 3 Given the overall improvement in the investment climate, Objective 2 was Mostly Achieved. 10. Objective 3: Increased Agricultural Productivity of Selected Crops in Selected Areas. This objective was supported through the Second Emergency Food Security Support Project (FY11); West Africa Agricultural Productivity Program (FY11); and the Climate Smart Agriculture Support Project (FY16). This objective had only one outcome indicator. • Average yield of cereal crops (millet, sorghum & rice) in targeted rain-fed areas increased by 25 percent by 2015. Average rice productivity for 2014 dry season harvest reached 7076 kg per ha, an increase of 29 percent over the 2008-2012 average, per the ICRR (IEG:S) for the Second Emergency Food Security Support Project. Information on the productivity of millet and sorghum was not provided in the CLR or any of the Bank’s documents. Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization suggest that the national average yield of sorghum increased from 364 kg/ha during the 2008-2012 period to 561.4 kg/ha in 2015, an increase of 54 percent. The national average yield of millet increased from an average of 364 kg/ha during the 2008-2012 period to 561.4 in 2015, an increase of 11 percent. Based on this alternative source of information, the outcome target was mostly achieved— sorghum and rice surpassed the target, while millet did not. According to the ICRR, partnering with donors and working with communities and established NGO 3 See paragraph 39 of 2016 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, February 2017. IMF Country Report No. 17/59 CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 6 partners (such as veterinarians without borders) has been a key contributor to the progress made under this objective. On balance, Objective 3 was Mostly Achieved. 11. Objective 4: Improved Selected Trade Infrastructures. This objective was supported through the Niger Port IFC Advisory Services project; Local Urban Infrastructure Development project (FY08); Competitiveness and Growth Project (FY12); and Transport Sector Support Program SIM (FY08). This objective had three outcome indicators. • Setting up of Dry Port Authority. The CLR informs that the IFC-supported activity to help set up the Dry Port Authority was dropped due to shifting priorities of the authorities. The PLR had reported the target as achieved. Indeed, in 2014, the Government set up a Dry Port Authority. Furthermore, on October 28, 2014, the Government signed a PPP agreement with Bollore Africa Logistics (B.A.L.) for a 20-year concession of the dry port. The two-site facility would comprise a new dry port infrastructure in Dosso (corridor of Benin) and the development of the existing Niamey Rive Droite platform (corridors of Togo, Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire). The B.A.L. undertook to build, develop and operate two ports, committing $77 million to the project. IFC advised the Government of Niger (GoN) on the concession for the dry ports, helped mobilize the funds for $74 million and drafted all the necessary documents. The GoN proceeded with the transaction afterwards without IFC support. There is no available information on the implementation of the concession (PPP agreement) and the investor’s compliance with its commitments. [Partially Achieved.] • Kilometers of inter-urban roads rehabilitated in targeted areas. The target was to reconstruct 300 kilometers of inter-urban roads. There are mixed reports on the progress of this indicator. On one hand, the CLR reports that that this activity was dropped under the Competitiveness and Growth Project (FY12) due to shifting priorities of the authorities. The CLR also notes the mounting trade barriers that are limiting regional trade and reducing the impact of the infrastructure investments. On the other hand, the PLR reported that work was in progress through the Transport Sector Support Program (FY08). The ICR for this project reports major gains in connectivity including reduction in travel times on the three important sections of the national road network. Given the ambiguity about the inter-urban character of the rehabilitated roads, progress of this indicator is considered as not verified. • Rehabilitation of Maradi Central Market. The CLR informs that the activity was dropped due to shifting priorities of the authorities. The PLR, however, had reported the target as achieved. According to the ICRR for the Local Urban Development Project (FY08). The market rehabilitation was completed in 2013 and became operational in November 2014. Per the available public information, the market remains in operation. [Achieved] • On balance, Objective 4 is rated as Partially Achieved. 12. On balance, Focus Area I is rated as Moderately Unsatisfactory. Two objectives were mostly achieved, one was partially achieved and one was not achieved. Focus Area II: Reducing Vulnerability 13. Objective 5: Increased Access of Poor and Food Insecure People to Safety Net Programs. This objective was supported through the Niger Safety Net Project (FY11) and additional financing (FY16); the Community Action Program Phase 3 (FY13); the Social Protection and Building Resilience Report Technical Assistance (FY14); the Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) (FY11). This objective had one outcome indicator. • Number of households with access to the safety net programs (cash transfer and cash for work programs). The target was 100,000 additional households would have access to safety nets by the end of 2015 (from a baseline of zero). As of August 2017, 143,542 additional households had access to cash transfers and 47,030 households had access to CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 7 the cash for work program, per the ISR (December 2017) for the Niger Safety Net Project (FY11) • As of August 2017, over 1 million people have been benefiting from access to safety net programs and around 83 percent of the beneficiaries are poor, per the ISR (December 2017) for the Niger Safety Net Project (FY11). Objective 5 is rated as Achieved. 14. Objective 6: Increased Adoption of Climate Resilience Policies and Actions in Targeted Communes. This objective was supported through the Community Action Program for Climate Resilience (CAPCR (FY11)), the Community Action Program 2 (FY09), and the Community Action Program Phase 3 project (FY13). This objective had three indicators: • Additional agricultural area under sustainable land management (SLM). The target was at least 2000 ha of additional agricultural areas with improved SLM. By December 31, 2015, 1,407 additional ha of agricultural areas were under sustainable land management. An additional 3,101 additional ha of agricultural areas were under SLM per the June 2017 ISR of the FY11 project. [Achieved]. • Additional silvo-pastoral areas under SLM. The target was at least 5,000 ha of additional silvo-pastoral areas with SLM. By December 31, 2016, 22,677 additional ha of silvo- pastoral areas were under SLM. [Achieved]. • Number of Local Development Plans (LDPs) incorporating climatic resilience. The target was 25 plans by the end of 2015. By December 31, 2016, 38 LDPs incorporated climatic resilience. [Achieved]. • Objective 6 is rated as Achieved. 15. Objective 7: Improved Education and Employment Skills for Youth. This objective was supported through the Support to Quality Education Project (FY15); and Skills Development for Growth Project (FY13). This objective had two indicators. • Primary completion rate. The target was set at 60 percent for 2015, with the target for girls at 53 percent. As of December 2015, the primary completion rate was reported at 62.2 percent, and of which 53.5 percent were girls. [Achieved]. • Number of youth who completed dual apprenticeship programs. The target was set as 800 for 2015, with at least 20 percent are women. By December 2015, 1,103 out of school youth were enrolled in dual apprenticeship programs and 109 had completed their training by February 2016. By the end of 2016, 620 apprentices were reported to have completed their training, of which 48 percent were women. [Mostly Achieved]. • The objective is rated as Mostly Achieved. 16. Objective 8: Increased Access to Water, Sanitation, Health and Population Service. This objective was supported through the Urban Water and Sanitation Project (FY11) and additional financing (FY16); Second HIV/AIDS Support Project (FY11); the Strengthening Water Supply and Sanitation Planning and Monitoring Systems in Niger TA; Population and Health Support Project (FY15); and Multi-Sector Demographic Project (FY12). This objective had four indicators. • Number of additional people in selected urban areas provided with access to improved water sources. The number of additional people with access to improved water sources was reported at 536,750 by November 2015, compared to the target of 509,000. [Achieved] • Number of additional students provided with access to sanitation services in their schools. The target was set at 60,000 for 2015. By November 2015, there were 52,530 students who had access to appropriate sanitation facilities in their schools. By August 2017, the corresponding number reached 60,000. [Achieved]. CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 8 • Number of sex workers seen at health facilities after referral by NGO. The target was set at additional 5,000 by 2015. The number of sex workers seen at health facilities after referral by NGOs increased to 7,500 in 2014 and to 12,907 in 2016 (from a baseline of 0 in 2011). [Achieved]. • Number of sex workers treated for Sexual Transmitted Infection (STI). The target was set at additional 500 by 2015. By August 2014, additional 5,000 sex workers had been treated for STI; the number had increased to 12,621 by the end of 2016. [Achieved]. • This objective lumped together several sectors (water, sanitation and health) without providing a rationale on how the various sectors would work towards a common objective. Objective 8 is rated as Achieved. 17. Focus Area II is rated as Satisfactory. All four objectives are rated as either Achieved or Mostly Achieved. Focus Area III—Cross-cutting: Mainstreaming Gender and strengthening governance and capacity for service delivery 18. Objective 9: Improved Budget Execution and Efficiency. This objective was supported through the Reform Management and Technical Assistance Project (FY10); the Shared Growth credits I, II and III (FY12, FY13, FY14); and IDF grant for Procurement Reform (FY13). This objective had two indicators. • Budget execution ratio of own funded expenditures (actual/budget). The target was set at 80 percent in 2015. Given the ambiguity of the indicator, the CLR, proposes using PEFA- 1 indicator that measures variation between actual expenditures and initial budget allocations. The overall budget execution rate is estimated to have risen to 83.5 percent for 2016 by the ICRR for the Reform Management and Technical Assistance Project (FY10). PEFA-1 improved from D in 2012 to B in 2016, as validated by the ICRR for the FY10 Project. [Achieved] • Share of public procurement contracts awarded through competitive bidding. The target was set as maintaining this share at 75 percent or above. The CLR suggests using PEFA indicator 19 (PEFA-19) measuring the degree of transparency and competitiveness in national public procurement, given concerns about the government methodology used to define competitive bidding. Per the ICRR for the Shared Growth Credits DPO, the share of procurement contracts competitively tendered by both number and value increased from 68 percent and 81 percent, to 93 percent and 91 percent respectively. 4 But PEFA- 19 remained unchanged at B+ since 2012 PEFA. The PEFA 2016 Report informs that the percentage of contracts assigned through competitive bidding has declined since 2012. [Not Achieved] • Objective 9 is rated as Partially Achieved. 19. Objective 10: Improved Transparency of Sector Budget Allocations. This objective was supported through the First Public Investment Reform Support credit (FY16), Support to Niger Supreme Audit Institution (SAI) TF (FY13); PEFA Update (FY14), and PER (FY14). This objective had one indicator. 4 The DPO ICRR notes that although the procurement processes were audited and reports were published for all years up to program closure, only two out of a planned ten physical inspections of the implementation of public procurement contracts took place. The DPO ICRR points that this lack of follow-up through physical inspections undermines the sustainability of reforms. CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 9 • Number of budgetary documents published based on the Open budget initiative classification. The target was set at two documents for 2015. Two of the eight key budget documents were made publicly available online consistent with international standards, per the Open Budget Index survey of 2015. However, the 2016 update for the Open Budget Index survey reports that none of the eight budget documents are available, signaling backtracking on the budget transparency agenda. [Not Achieved]. • Objective 10 is rated as Not Achieved. 20. Objective 11: Improved Transparency in the Mining and Oil Sector. This objective was supported through the EITI Post Compliance Trust Fund Grant (FY11). This objective had one indicator. • Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) Reports published annually. EITI annual progress reports for the 2010-2017 period as well as reports from the earlier periods are available at the Niger page of the EITI website. Following the October 2017 validation against 2016 EITI standards, EITI’s board suspended Niger for failure to make meaningful progress on key issues in the 2016 EITI standards. Outstanding EITI requirements included non-transparent systems for license allocation, lack of a comprehensive public license register, gaps between the government policy on contract transparency as mandated by the constitution and the practice of limited disclosure of contracts. On November 14, 2017, the government of Niger announced its withdrawal from EITI implementation. At that time, the EITI board pointed to the significant progress Niger has made to improve its mineral governance. Specifically, progress was made on the publication of exploration activities, production and export data, and mining revenue management and expenditure 5. Moreover, there has been a significant increase in government revenues from license fees, as reported by the EITI Secretariat. • The selected indicator did not reflect well on the actual progress towards Objective 11. A better measure of progress towards the sector’s transparency would have reflected attainment of some specific transparency benchmark, such as the establishment of a comprehensive register of mining licenses and making it publicly available. Despite some improvements in the sector’s transparency that have been noted above, significant gaps remain, and currently there is no government commitment to address them with the government’s withdrawal from EITI implementation. • Objective #11 is rated as Partially Achieved. 21. Achievement of objectives under Focus Area III is rated Unsatisfactory – all three objectives are rated as either Not Achieved or Partially Achieved Overall Assessment and Rating 22. On balance, IEG rates the achievement of the CPS objectives as Moderately Satisfactory. Six out of 11 objectives were either achieved or mostly achieved. Under Focus Area I, progress has been made in increasing productivity for selected crops and improving the environment for doing business. However, there was no progress in fiscal consolidation and access to finance, as well as transparency of budget outcomes. Under Focus Area II, three of the four objectives were achieved and one was mostly achieved. The number of poor and food insecure people accessing safety nets has increased; primary completion rates are higher; more people in urban areas have access to water and sanitation; and more agricultural lands in selected communes have adopted sustainable land management practices. Under focus Area III, two objectives were not achieved and one partially achieved. Niger’s withdrawal from EITI implementation impedes further progress on addressing outstanding issues on non-transparent practices. 5 https://eiti.org/news/niger-progressing-slowly-against-eiti-standard CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 10 Objectives CLR Rating IEG Rating Focus Area I: Promoting Resilient Growth Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Objective 1: Fiscal Performance Consolidated Partially Achieved Not Achieved Objective 2: Improved Investment Climate and Access Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved to Finance for SMEs Objective 3: Increased Agricultural Productivity of Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved Selected Crops in Selected Objective 4: Improved Selected Trade Infrastructures Not Achieved Partially Achieved Focus Area II: Reducing Vulnerability Satisfactory Satisfactory Objective 5: Increased Access of Poor and Food Mostly Achieved Achieved Insecure People to Safety Net Programs Objective 6: Increased Adoption of Climate Resilience Achieved Achieved Policies and Actions in Targeted Communes Objective 7: Improved Education and Employment Achieved Mostly Achieved Skills for Youth Objective 8: Increased Access to Water, Sanitation, Achieved Achieved Health and Population Service Focus Area III: Mainstreaming Gender and strengthening governance and capacity for service Moderately Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory delivery Objective 9: Improved Budget Execution and Partially Achieved Partially Achieved Efficiency Objective 10: Improved Transparency of Sector Achieved Not Achieved Budget Allocations Objective 11: Improved Transparency in the Mining Achieved Partially Achieved and Oil Sector 6. WBG Performance Lending and Investments 23. At the beginning of the CPS period, 13 IDA projects were under implementation with approved commitments of $475 million. During the CPS period, 18 IDA projects were approved with total commitments of $1.153 billion. The amount of IDA resources made available to Niger significantly increased under this CPS compared to the previous CAS (FY08-FY11), when IDA new commitments amounted to $418.5 million. Most of the new lending (or 90 percent of new commitments) approved during the CPS period were investment project financing (IPF), including four regional projects and additional financings. The remaining two operations were development policy financing (or $120 million in net commitments). Nineteen Grants and Trusts Funds were active during the CPS period, with total commitments of $198 million. Nine new TFs were approved during the CPS period (or $110.3 million) equivalent to more than 50 percent of the active TFs during the CPS period. Notable among them are two grants: one grant in support for Quality Education, for $84.2 million; and the other, is the Second Emergency Food Security and two Community Action Plan for Climate Resilience grants ($63 million). Both contributed to the delivery of CPS results. 24. Niger’s portfolio performance at exit is well below its comparators, (SSA and Bank-wide). During the CPS period, five projects exited, including the three DPO credits, and validated by IEG. In terms of number of projects, 60 percent were rated Moderately Satisfactory or better (MS+), compared CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 11 to 66 percent of the Africa region and 71 percent Bank-wide. In terms of commitments, the percentage of projects with MS+ is 45 percent for Niger, well below the SSA average (74.5 percent) and Bank- wide (83.9 percent). All five closed operations have ratings of significant to high risk to development outcome, in line with the fragile and conflict affected context of the country. 25. The average disbursement ratio during the CPS period was 21.6 percent, slightly below the percentage for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (22.1 percent), and above the Bank-wide average (20 percent). The disbursement ratio improved during the CPS period from 18.1 percent in 2013 to 26.1 percent in 2016. In terms of number of projects, the average percentage of projects at risk during the CPS period was 25 percent, higher than for Sub-Saharan Africa (22 percent), and the Bank (21 percent). By commitments, the average percentage of project at risk at 29 percent is much higher than the average for the Bank (22 percent) but lower compared to SSA (32 percent). 26. Overall, the active portfolio shows good performance as measured by Management’s own self- assessment (MS+ ISR ratings), with the exception of a regional project supporting the Kandadji initiative. However, this may also suggest over optimism and lack of candor in rating given the portfolio performance at exit and the underlying fragility of the environment. The CLR reports that the average disbursement ratio could have been higher given the age and profile of the portfolio. It also notes that the limited number of Bank staff based in Niamey and the unstable security environment hampered the implementation of Bank projects. 27. During the CPS period, IFC made total net commitments of $6.3 million. These investments were for IFC’s short-term trade finance guarantee, except for a very small investment of $20,000 IFC made in the retail sector. During the review period, IEG validated one IFC advisory service project and assigned a Mostly Unsuccessful rating for its Development Effectiveness. Under the Africa MSME program, IFC supported its client bank to improve marketing, product development, and loan monitoring. IFC also helped mobilize $74 million for the Niger Dry Port project. 28. During the CPS, MIGA maintained an ongoing exposure of US$5.2 million in Niger, supporting the import verification and scanning operations of Cotecna Inspection S.A. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 29. During the CPS period, 23 Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) products were delivered, corresponding to ten Economic and Sector Work (ESW) and 13 Non-Lending Technical Assistance. The ASA supported all the CPS across the board. For the first results area, support included: Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA); a PEMFAR Update; Access to finance, and a Note on growth and poverty. The Country Health Status Report (CHSR) and reports on water and sanitation contributed to the second results area. Work on gender, and governance and corruption provided cross-cutting support. The first PER in the security sector was an example of innovation – Niger, is exposed to high security risks, and therefore security is a topic of critical importance for the country, but this is usually considered to be outside WBG’s core competencies. ASA products informed the preparation of the lending program and, in several cases, contributed to the delivery of CPS objectives. Overall, the ASA program was strong and effective. 30. IFC delivered two advisory services. IFC partnered with the private sector to develop a commercial irrigation project, which has been delayed due to concerns about security, availability of water resources, and commercial viability of the possible irrigation sites. On trade and commerce, IFC was the lead transaction advisor appointed by the Government to attract private sector participation to develop and operate the Dosso Dry Port as well as operate the already existing Niamey Rive Droite Dry Port. The advisory work led to the award by the Government of Niger of a 20-year concession for the development and management of the ports. Results Framework 31. The results framework (RF) reflected the logic of intervention from country goals and priorities to CPS objectives and interventions. The results framework had baselines and targets and the indicators were generally measurable and verifiable, with some exceptions. However, the RF had several shortcomings. First, some indicators did not sufficiently measure their corresponding CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 12 objectives, as in the case of Objective 1 (fiscal consolidation) and Objective 11 (transparency in mining and oil). Second, some major WBG engagements were not reflected in the RF, as in the case of the Kandadji initiative. Third, the supporting activities and indicators were not well linked, as in the case for the SME credit indicator under Objective 2 and for Objective 4 (transport infrastructure). Fourth, Objective 8 (water, health, sanitation and population) was too broad in its scope and would have benefitted from further unbundling. Fifth, some of the indicators were set at the project level and not at program level. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 32. The Bank Group established strong partnerships in delivering its Niger country program. The CPS identified seventeen development partners in Niger. The key development partners include European Union, France, UNDP, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Japan, USA and DFID. The Bank’s collaboration with development partners took several forms including through co-financing. For example, the Bank’s Support to Quality Education Project has been co-financed by several development partners who also participated in joint project supervision. The DPO series operations were prepared in close coordination with the IMF. The Bank also worked with the European Union and the African Development Bank to develop a harmonized, multi-donor framework for budget support. Still, the CLR and various ICRs note deficiencies in the donor coordination due in part to a limited government leadership. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 33. During the CPS period, three of four, investment operations validated by IEG (in agriculture and urban development) triggered environmental and social safeguard policies. The project ICRs and ICRRs noted satisfactory compliance with the triggered policies, with adequate preparation, disclosure of the policy instruments and capacity building at all levels. Nevertheless, compliance with safeguards was impaired by the inability to access some project sites due to the unstable security environment. The ICRs and ICRRs reported that by the projects’ closure, all safeguard-related issues had been resolved. No inspection panel case was filed during the CPS period. 34. Major safeguards concerns have arisen during the implementation of the WBG’s Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Program supporting the regional Kandadji initiative. As the CLR indicates, the considerable number of people to be resettled (over 60,000) caused continued implementation challenges that led to a partial suspension of disbursements in September 2016. The latest ISR (December 21, 2017) stated that two out of three pending actions identified in the Bank’s response to the lifting of suspension in November 2016 were fully completed and the remaining one is expected to be fully met by March 2018. However, concerns remain regarding the unfinished Resettlement Action Plan (RAP1) completion and the adequacy of RAP2 preparation. Follow-up consultations on RAP1 are expected in early 2018. It is estimated that implementation of RAP1 Corrective Action Plan would take about two years (2018-2020). 35. INT substantiated two cases related to the Niger program: one case pertained to misrepresentation of a fake guarantee by a bidder and the other concerned misuse of public funds. Both cases had minor impact on the project development objectives for the corresponding operations. Ownership and Flexibility 36. The Government was highly committed to implement its strategy (PDES). The PLR noted that the Government, had sustained its implementation effort, which had helped improve the quality of the Bank’s portfolio. The commitment of the government to structural reform, however, seems to be weaker, due in part to an overambitious reform agenda relative to weak capacity and aggravated by a difficult political economy. The CLR notes that in some cases, there was insufficient government involvement during the early part of the project preparation that resulted in weak ownership during implementation. Over-reliance on strong PIUs also exacerbated the risk of weakening government ownership. The issuance of the PPP agreement for the Dry Ports was delayed due to slow progress in developing an enabling environment for the private sector to participate. CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 13 37. To manage the impact of the continued state of conflict in the neighboring countries, the Bank demonstrated flexibility during project implementation by tapping third parties, CSOs, NGOs and Monitoring agencies, to help with project supervision. The Bank also mainstreamed a large contingency component in IPFs, but the extent to which this flexibility was used remains unclear. The CPS also considered the possibility of using financing mechanisms, such as the Crisis Response Window (CRW) and Contingent Emergency Response Components, to act flexibly and in a timely manner should a crisis arise. However, no information is available if such mechanisms were considered and/or utilized. The PLR introduced only slight changes to the program. A more thorough stock taking and retro-fitting of the Results Framework at the PLR stage would have been welcome. WBG Internal Cooperation 38. During the CPS period, the opportunities for cooperation within WBG were few. IFC intervention regarding credit to Small and Medium Enterprises was not coordinated with the Bank’s work on Financial Inclusion. Likewise, IFC’s work on the Dry Port PPP could have been better integrated with Bank efforts at facilitating trade across the borders. More concerted engagements could possibly expand opportunities for both IFC and MIGA in Niger in the future. Risk Identification and Mitigation 39. The CPS and PLR identified four major risks: (i) the Sahel crisis and security risks; (ii) climatic exogenous shocks e.g. droughts, locust infestation, floods; (iii) capacity constraints; and (iv) natural resources related risks. The continued state of conflict in the neighboring countries handicapped project implementation in the Northern and Eastern regions of Niger -- the Bank tapped third parties, CSOs, NGOs and Monitoring agencies, to help with project supervision. The weak capacity of government, including central agencies, remained a challenge that affected implementation of the reform agenda on governance and capacity building, where progress has been slow. The political economy risk could also have received greater prominence, especially to better access government capacity to effectively deliver on its formal commitments. The PLR noted the risks associated with the regional program on the Kandadji Growth Pole, but despite this awareness and efforts, the project performance has been wanting. The risk from changes in the global commodity markets could have figured more prominently; as it turned out, the drop in the oil price in 2014 affected Niger, both directly as an oil producer and indirectly through Nigeria, its major economic partner. Managing the impact of the oil price drop proved challenging and the fiscal stance suffered, affecting delivery of Objective 1 on fiscal consolidation. Overall Assessment and Rating Design 40. The CPS objectives were relevant to the challenges that Niger faced, and were aligned with the Government Program and the corporate twin goals, and reflected well the comparative advantage of the WBG in the country. The program was not selective enough, given the limited capacity of the country and the multitude of risks (both internal and external). The CPS objectives reflected to some extent the high ambitions of the government program. The Results Framework reflected a good logic of intervention overall, but had some shortcomings including indicators that did not adequately measure the objectives and reliance on project indicators. The link between ASA products and WBG projects was sufficiently strong. The CPS identified well critical risks to the program. Some, however, were not highlighted enough, including difficult political economy and fluctuations in commodity prices. Implementation 41. WBG financial support for Niger increased during this CPS period compared to the previous one. The ASA program was focused and substantive and supported the preparation of new operations, the delivery of several CPS objectives and helped build the analytical foundations for the new CPF. Performance. However, portfolio performance at exit as measured by IEG’s outcome rating of Moderately Satisfactory or better, was well below the SSA and Bank-wide average. The risks to the sustainability of outcomes were significant to high, reflecting the underlying fragile environment. To manage the impact of the continued state of conflict in the neighboring countries, the Bank CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 14 demonstrated flexibility during project implementation by tapping third parties, including Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs)and Monitoring agencies, to help with project supervision. The Bank also mainstreamed a large contingency component in IPFs, but the extent to which this flexibility was used remains unclear. The Bank worked closely with Development Partners in several critical areas, including education, climate change, health and population, fiscal consolidation, and private sector development. Compliance with safeguards and fiduciary requirements appears strong, the main challenge has been the construction of the dam at Kandadji. The cooperation across the WBG institutions was limited. The mid-term corrections at the PLR stage were minimal. With hindsight, a more thorough stock taking could have contributed to a sharpening of the results framework. 42. WBG performance during this CPS is rated as good. 7. Assessment of CLR Completion Report 43. The CLR is clear and concise. The analysis is consistent with the Results Framework as presented by the PLR. The CLR provides adequate evidence on the delivery of outcome targets and the contribution of the WBG. It considers the main implementation challenges and it draws relevant lessons. However, it could have addressed certain issues with greater depth. For instance, it does not explain why flagship initiatives like the Kandadji program were not reflected in the results framework. Given the size of the relevance of this program for the country, the region and the Bank, an in-depth discussion of design and implementation issues would have been welcome. Likewise, the CLR could have informed on the use of the contingency components in projects to manage risks, given their relevance for Niger and other conflict affected countries. The ratings for Objectives 10 and 11 could have gone beyond the indicators to take stock of the delivery of the objectives by considering the adequacy of the selected indicators and the sustainability of the achievements. The CLR’s comments on the government shifting priorities on trade infrastructure was not adequately explained. 8. Findings and Lessons 44. The CLR drew eight lessons: (i) encourage government leadership of WBG-financed projects through early involvement and simpler program design and better linkages across the WBG portfolio; (ii) strengthen the results matrix to provide a firm basis for monitoring and evaluation; (iii) combine short term economic and humanitarian needs with longer term development objectives to maximize the impact of emergency operations; (iv) ensure sufficient preparation and motivate key counterparts engage with hard-to-reach communities; (v) integrate further climate change across the portfolio; (v) develop strategies to mitigate the effect on Bank project implementation of insufficient counterpart government staff in regions experiencing prolonged insecurity; (vii) double-up efforts to mainstream gender dimension across the portfolio; and (viii) capitalize on the gains associated with a firm but supportive dialogue on aligning the GoN’s and Bank’s views on safeguards as exemplified by the Kandadji Program. 45. IEG concurs with the lessons in the CLR. IEG adds three additional lessons. • Institutional reforms would need to be more selective and sequenced and underpinned by a keen understanding of priorities in the context of weak capacity and high-risk environment. In the case of Niger, the institutional reforms were ambitious and broad as in the case of objective 1 (fiscal consolidation) in an environment deeply affected by external shocks (drop in export prices) and internal challenges (difficult political economy and low capacity). • In a fragile environment, the Bank’s flexibility is critical to ensure continued and effective program implementation. In the case of Niger, the Bank demonstrated flexibility during implementation by contracting third parties to help with project supervision. In following a flexible approach, the challenge is to build capacity to monitor contracts with third parties and to formalize and standardize the approach to facilitate scaling it up. CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 15 • The effectiveness of Bank interventions in fragile environments is enhanced through working with other development partners and in partnership with local communities and established NGOs to mobilize resources, deepen knowledge of local circumstances and facilitate implementation. In Niger, the Bank has successfully worked with other development partners through co-financing and to deliver results in education, food security, managing climate change and extending safety nets. The community and NGO engagements have been critical to the successful delivery of results in HIV/AIDS, climate change and food security. Annexes CLR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Niger Annex Table 2: Niger Planned and Actual Lending, FY13 - FY16 Annex Table 3: Advisory Services and Analytics Deliveries for Niger, FY13-16 Annex Table 4: Niger Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY13-16 Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Niger, FY13-16 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Niger and Comparators, FY13-16 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Niger and Comparators, FY13-16 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Niger, FY13-16 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Niger, FY13-16 Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid, 2013-2015 Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Niger, 2013 – 2016 Annex Table 12: List of IFC Advisory Services in Niger Advisory Services Approved in FY13-16 Annex Table 13: IFC net commitment activity in Niger, FY13 - FY16 (US$, 000) Annex Table 14: List of MIGA Activities 2013-2016 (US$, millions) Annexes CLR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Niger CPS FY13-FY16: Focus area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Promoting Resilient Growth (as of current month/year) 1. CPS Objective: Fiscal Performance consolidated Outcome (i): Efficiency of tax This outcome was supported by the In the 2011 PEFA and customs collections has Shared Growth Credit DPO series I methodology, PI-15 improved. (P125272, FY12), II (P132757, FY13), referred to the and III (P145251, FY14) This DPO Effectiveness in collection Indicator: PEFA performance series sought to establish a competitive of tax payments and was indicator 15 (Effectiveness in and diversified economy for accelerated therefore an appropriate collection of tax payments). and inclusive growth by among others, indicator for this outcome. reforming the tax administration, In the 2016 PEFA Baseline: D+ (2012) modernization of the investment code, methodology PI-15 was Target: C (2015) and removing internal obstacles to trade changed to “Fiscal and commerce. The DPO program strategy”. series included an indicator on the number of visits by tax officials to Nevertheless, to allow for individual enterprises as a measure of direct comparability the extent to which running a business between the 2012 and is free from official harassment, as well 2016 PEFA scores, the as of the efficiency of tax officials. 2016 Niger PEFA report included a This outcome also received support standardization of the two from the Reform Management and sets of scores based on Technical Assistance project (P108253; the 2011 methodology. Major FY10) which sought to lower the Outcome deviation in aggregate revenue for tax Measures and customs Directorates. Support for this outcome was also provided through a Public Expenditure Review delivered in FY14. According to the management completion report for the Reform Management TA project (ICR:MS), the deviation in aggregate revenue for tax and customs directorates began to show an initial decrease, however, by the end of the project tax revenue deviation was 21.6 percent and customs revenue deviation was 10.6 percent, which marked almost no changed from their 2009 baseline values of 21.8 and 11.0 percent, respectively The tax revenue to GDP ratio increased during the period from 14.5% in 2012 to 16.1% in 2015. The budget deficit on the other hand increased from 1.1% in 2012 to 9.1% in 2015. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 20 CPS FY13-FY16: Focus area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Promoting Resilient Growth (as of current month/year) According to the 2016 PEFA report, the score for PEFA indicator 15 did not improve and was assessed as D+ in 2016. Target Not Achieved Outcome (ii): Treasury and This outcome was also supported by In the 2011 PEFA debt Management has the three Shared Growth Credit DPOs I methodology, PI-17 improved. (P125272 FY12), II (P132757, FY13), referred to the “Recording and III (P145251, FY14). In particular, and management of cash Indicator: PEFA performance the Third Shared Growth Credit balances, debt and indicator 17 (Recording and supported the adoption of measures to guarantees” and was management of cash balances, prevent the accumulation of new arrears therefore an appropriate debt and guarantees). by four state-owned enterprises. indicator for this outcome. In the 2016 PEFA Baseline: C (2012) IEG: MU for the project series reported methodology PI-17 Target: B (2015) that there was a significant reduction in changed to “Budget total domestic arrears, which were preparation process”. reduced by CFAF22.4 billion (or some 0.6% of GDP) in 2013, and by a further Nevertheless, to allow for CFAF9.5 billion (0.3% of GDP) in 2014. direct comparability It also noted that despite these between the 2012 and reductions, arrears to the principal 2016 PEFA scores, the state-owned industries remained high. 2016 Niger PEFA report included a Support for this outcome was also standardization of the two provided through a Debt Management sets of scores based on Performance Assessment (DeMPA) the 2011 methodology. delivered in FY14 (P130410) and a Debt Management Reform Plan in FY15 (P144949). According to data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook database, the gross debt to GDP ratio increased over the period from 26.9% in 2012 to 46.3% in 2016. According to the 2016 PEFA report, the score for PEFA indicator 17 did not improve and was assessed as C in 2016. Target Not Achieved 2. CPS Objective: Improved Investment Climate and Access to Finance for SMEs Indicator: Average number of This outcome was supported by the At PLR stage, the new Competitiveness & Growth Support baseline was revised to enterprises registered per year project (P127204, FY12) which sought 2094 instead of 2500 to: i) improve selected aspects of initially estimated Baseline: 2094 (2012) Niger's business environment, ii) because of Target: 3000 (2015) (of which 20 support the development of the meat implementation delay of % led by women) industry, and iii) increase local business Maison de l’Entreprise participation in the extractive industries sector. This outcome was also CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 21 CPS FY13-FY16: Focus area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Promoting Resilient Growth (as of current month/year) supported by the Shared Growth Credit DPOs which sought to improve the business environment for investment and trade in Niger and included relevant prior actions such as modification of rules for the National Private Investor Council, a new regulatory framework for PPPs, (P125272, FY12), and the submission of a new investment code to the National Assembly (P145251, FY14). Niger’s ease of doing ranking improved during the period from 173 in 2012 to 150 in 2017 and then to 144 in 2018. The Doing Business distance relative to the frontier for ’Opening a business’ indicator improved from 54.48 in DB2014 to 93.65 in DB2018 According to the June 2016 management supervision report of the Competitiveness & Growth support credit ISR:MS, by December 2015, there were 2,372 enterprises registered per year, 20% of which were led by women. The same report indicated that by June 2016, the number enterprises registered per year, 20% of which were led by women, had increased to 7000. Target Achieved. Indicator: SMEs Loan Portfolio This outcome was supported by the At the PLR stage, the Competitiveness & Growth Support target and end-date Baseline: US$19 million (2012) project (P127204, FY12) which sought revised, respectively from Target: US$23 million (2016) (of to improve selected aspects of Niger's US$33 million to US$23 which 20% are received by business environment, to support the million, and from 2015 to female-owned SMEs) development of the meat industry and to 2016 because of IFC’s increase local business participation in new projections. the extractive industries sector. The CLR indicated that IFC also supported this outcome there were no data through a regional bank with a presence available to validate the in Niger, that provided trade finance indicator on the SME loan guarantees totaling $6.8 million by portfolio of banks, nor 2015. gender disaggregated data for this outcome. None of the projects in the Niger portfolio reported on this indicator. As such, there was no available data to validate this indicator. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 22 CPS FY13-FY16: Focus area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Promoting Resilient Growth (as of current month/year) Nevertheless, Niger’s ranking for Access to credit in the Doing Business index declined steadily from 126 in 2012 to 139 in 2017 and then to 149 in 2018. However, as a share of GDP, the domestic credit provided by the financial sector increased from 12.7% in 2012 to 16.8% in 2016 (WDI database) Target Not Achieved 3. CPS Objective: Increased Agricultural Productivity of Selected Crops in Selected Areas Indicator: Average yield of cereal This outcome was supported by the At the PLR stage, the crops (millet, sorghum & rice) in Second Emergency Food Security baseline for Millet was targeted rain fed areas Support Project (P123567; FY11) which corrected to 506 instead increased by 25% by 2015 sought to support improvement of food of the erroneous 5061 security in Niger in general and of poor shown in the CPS. Baseline: average yield in kg/ha farmers and herders' households highly- in 2008-2012 period: exposed to the recurrent food and - Millet: 506; livestock crisis, in the Regions of - Sorghum: 354, and Maradi, Tahoua and Tillabery. - Rice: 5500). The outcome was also supported by the Target: Increase in average yield regional West Africa Agricultural of cereal crops by 25% in 2015 Productivity Program (P122065, FY11) which sought to generate and accelerate the adoption of improved technologies in the participating countries' top agricultural commodity priority areas that are aligned with the sub-region's top agricultural commodity priorities and by the Climate Smart Agriculture Support Project (P153420; FY16) that supported the (i) enhancement of adaptation to climate risks, (ii) improving agricultural productivity among the Targeted Communities, and (iii) in the event of an Eligible Crisis or Emergency, providing immediate and effective response to said Eligible Crisis or Emergency. IEG:S for the Second Emergency Food Security Support Project reported that by project completion average rice productivity for 2014 dry season harvest reached 7076 kg per ha compared to a baseline of 4354.5 kg per ha in 2010, an increase of 29% over the 2008-2012 average. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization, the national average yield of Sorghum in kg/ha increased from an average of 364 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 23 CPS FY13-FY16: Focus area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Promoting Resilient Growth (as of current month/year) during the 2008-2012 period to 561.4 in 2015, an increase of 54%. The national average yield of millet in kg/ha increased from an average of 364 during the 2008-2012 period to 561.4 in 2015, an increase of 11%. Target Mostly Achieved 4. CPS Objective: Improved Selected Trade Infrastructures Indicator: Setting up of Dry Port This outcome was supported by the At PLR stage, the original Authority Niger Port IFC Advisory Services objective was changed to project (28148; FY10). The objective of reflect the new trade- Baseline: No dry port authority the project was to (i) provide oriented infrastructure Target: Dry port authority recommendations to the Government of objective. The original established. Niger regarding the appropriate CPS objective was structuring of a future dry port, and (ii) Improved Selected to select through a transparent Economic Infrastructures competitive process private operator to develop and operate the dry port This indicator was operations. For the long-term introduced at PLR stage sustainability of the project, the to replace the original Government would need a solidly indicator which was established grantor for the concession dropped because the project. The government of Niger government fell short in approved the idea and worked with IFC meeting universal access and consultants on the legal paperwork condition. The original required. indicator was “Connection of the The Niger PLR informs that the Dry country to regional fiber Port had been created. In addition, backbones established.” according to the AS completion report, the Dry Port Authority was created on Considering that this October 10, 2014. IFC advised the indicator was added at Government of Niger (GoN) on the the PLR stage (May concession for the dry ports, helped 2015) and that the Dry mobilize funds for $74 million and Port Authority was drafted all the necessary documents. created October 2014, The GoN proceeded with the the indicator was added transaction afterwards without IFC after it had already been support. There is no available completed. information on the implementation of the concession (PPP agreement) and There also seems to be a the investor’s compliance with its contradiction between commitments. the CLR and the IFC AS Partially Achieved completion report. The CLR suggests that the activity was dropped due to shifting priorities of the authorities while the AS completion report indicates that the Authority was created on October 10, 2014. After CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 24 CPS FY13-FY16: Focus area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Promoting Resilient Growth (as of current month/year) the advisory on the concession, the advisory project to set up the dry port authority was dropped – the dry port was set up by GoN without IFC. Indicator: Kilometers of inter- This outcome was supported by the There seems to be a urban roads rehabilitated in Transport Sector Support project contradiction between the targeted areas. (P101434, FY08) and the related CLR and the project additional financing project (P131107, Implementation Baseline: 0 km of roads FY13). These projects sought to Completion Report (ICR). rehabilitated improve the physical access of rural The CLR suggests that Target: 300 Kilometers of inter- populations to markets and services on the activity was dropped urban roads rehabilitated in selected unpaved sections of the due to shifting priorities of targeted areas by 2015. national road network. According to the the authorities while the management completion report, ICR indicates that 1,056 ICR:MS, by December 2015, the km of roads was projects had supported the rehabilitation rehabilitated. A possible of 1,056 km of rural roads resulting in explanation for this an increase in the rural accessibility contradiction could be index from 33.4% to 39.5%. The that the 1,056 km of projects also contributed to a substantial roads rehabilitated were increase in the percentage of the strictly rural roads and not national road network in good and fair inter-urban roads as per condition, from 69% in 2008 to 81.6% the indicator. by the closing date. It is unclear that the work under the Transport program corresponds to the inter-urban indicator under the PLR. Target not verified Indicator: Rehabilitation of The Local Urban Infrastructure At the PLR stage this Maradi Central Market. Development project (P095949, FY08) indicator was added to supported this outcome by aiming to reflect the new trade Baseline: Maradi Central market increase and sustain access of urban oriented infrastructure not rehabilitated. residents to basic infrastructure and outcome. services, particularly those living in Target: Maradi Central market deprived settlements. Although this indicator rehabilitated. was added at the PLR IEG:MS reported that the rehabilitation stage, the PLR also noted of the Maradi central market had been that the indicator had completed at project closure (January been reached; 2013) although the market was not yet And that the rehabilitated operational. The PLR mentioned that central market of the market was inaugurated in 2014. Maradi was completed in 2013 and inaugurated in A newspaper article from November 2014. 2014 also suggests that the market was built with funding from the World Bank There seems to be a and was inaugurated on November 12, contradiction between the 2014 CLR and IEG’s Target Achieved Implementation CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 25 CPS FY13-FY16: Focus area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Promoting Resilient Growth (as of current month/year) Completion Report review (ICRR). IEG’s report indicates that the rehabilitation of the market was completed by January 2013 and the PLR maintains that the market was inaugurated in 2014. However, the CLR suggests that this activity was dropped due to shifting priorities of the authorities. CPS FY13-FY16: Focus Area II: Actual Results IEG Comments Reducing Vulnerability (as of current month/year) 5. CPS Objective: Increased Access of Poor and Food Insecure People to Safety Net Programs Indicator: Number of households The Niger Safety Net Project (P123399, The March 2016 project with access to the safety net FY11) and related additional financing paper for the additional programs (the cash transfer and (P155846, FY16) supported this financing project cash for work programs) by 2015 outcome by supporting the indicated that by June establishment of a safety nets system 2015, there were 73,634 Target: At least 100,000 which would increase access of poor households benefiting additional households with and food insecure households to cash from Cash transfers and access to the safety net transfer and cash for work programs. cash for work programs. programs (the cash transfer and This outcome was also supported by a cash for work programs) by 2015 Social Protection and Building resilience The August 2016 report (P143820) delivered as a Non- management Lending Technical Assistance project in supervision report ISR:S FY14. noted by June 2016, It was also supported by the Social there were 82,026 Major Protection for building resilience report Households with access Outcome delivered as a Non-Lending Technical to the cash transfer Measures Assistance and by the Trust funded system and 55,610 Integrated Surveys on Agriculture Households with access (LSMS-ISA). to the cash for work programs. The CLR The project paper for the additional figure of 137,636 financing project mentioned that by households is arrived at June 2015, 73,634 households had by obtaining the sum of access to the safety net programs these two groups of established by the Project (from a households. However, baseline of 0 households in December there is a risk of double 2011). counting the number of households because The December 2017 management some households could supervision (ISR:S) report indicated that potentially benefit from by February 2017,124,764 households both the cash transfer had access to the cash transfer system system and the cash for established by the Project. The report work program. also noted that by August 2017, the CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 26 CPS FY13-FY16: Focus Area II: Actual Results IEG Comments Reducing Vulnerability (as of current month/year) number had increased to 143,542 (from a baseline of 0 households in December 2011). Target Achieved. 6. CPS Objective 6: Increased Adoption of Climate Resilience Policies and Actions in Targeted Communes Indicator: Additional agricultural This outcome had the support of the area under sustainable land trust funded Community Action Program management for Climate Resilience (CAPCR) (P125669, FY11), the Community Target: At least 2000 ha of Action Program 2 (P102354, FY09) and additional agricultural areas with the Community Action Program Phase 3 improved Sustainable Land (P132306, FY13) projects. Activities in Management. these projects aimed to promote sustainable land management and expand sustainable land management practices in covered areas. The December 2016 ISR for CAPCR ISR:MS reported that by December 31 2015, 1,407 additional ha of agricultural areas were under SLM. The June 2017 ISR for CAPCR ISR:MS reported that by December 31 2016, 3,101 additional ha of agricultural areas were under SLM. Target Achieved Indicator: Additional silvo- This outcome was supported by the pastoral areas under Sustainable trust funded Community Action Program Land Management (SLM) for Climate Resilience (P125669, FY11) whose objective was to improve the Target: At least 5000 ha of resilience of agro-sylvo-pastoral additional silvo-pastoral areas systems and local populations to climate with improved SLM variability and change by scaling up sustainable land and water management practices. The December 2016 management supervision report (ISR:MS) noted that by December 31 2015, 7,584 additional ha of silvo-pastoral areas were under SLM. The June 2017 management report (ISR:MS) indicated that by December 31 2016, 22,677 additional ha of silvo- pastoral areas were under SLM. Target Achieved Indicator: Number of Local This outcome was supported by the Development Plans (LDPs) trust funded Community Action Program incorporating climatic resilience. for Climate Resilience (P125669, FY11). Activities in the project aimed at making CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 27 CPS FY13-FY16: Focus Area II: Actual Results IEG Comments Reducing Vulnerability (as of current month/year) Baseline: Zero (2012) socio-economic development policies Target: 25 (2015) more responsive to climate change and at defining and implementing a comprehensive communication strategy and a system of effective knowledge management. The December 2016 ISR:MS reported that by December 31 2015, 38 LDPs and Annual Investment Plans (AIPs) incorporated climatic resilience. The latest ISR (June 2017) ISR:MS reported that by December 31 2016, the same number of LDPs and AIPs (38) incorporated climatic resilience. Target Achieved 7. CPS Objective: Improved Education and Employment Skills for Youth Indicator: Primary completion The Support to Quality Education At PLR stage, the target rate Project (P132405, FY15) supported this was updated to reflect Baseline: 52% (2012) outcome by tackling supply and the latest development Target 60% (2015) (including demand-side constraints to enrollment in the sector by girls: and retention. The objective of the increasing the end target 53%); project was to improve access to from 55% to 60% schooling, retention of students in including girls at 53%; school, and the quality of the teaching and learning environment at the basic education level in Niger. The June 2016 ISR:S reported that as of December 2015, the primary completion rate was 62.2%. The May 2017 management supervision report ISR:S indicated the primary completion rate of 78.3% as of December 2016. According to the World Bank’s World Development Indicators Database the 2015 Primary combined completion rate was 69% while the rate for girls was 62.2%. Target Achieved Indicator: Number of youth who The Skills Development for Growth The indicator was completed dual apprenticeship project (P126049, FY13) supported this changed at PLR stage programs. outcome by supporting improvements in due to an initial Baseline: 0 (2012) the effectiveness of formal technical and formulation issue. The Target: 800 in 2015 (with at vocational training, short term skills indicator at CPS stage least development and apprenticeship was “Youth who 20% of women) programs in priority sectors. completed dual apprenticeship programs The June 2016 management increased from 0 in 2012 supervision report for the Skills to 30% in 2015 (with at Development for Growth project ISR:S least 20% of women).” CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 28 CPS FY13-FY16: Focus Area II: Actual Results IEG Comments Reducing Vulnerability (as of current month/year) indicated that, by mid December 2015, 1,103 out of school youth were enrolled in dual apprenticeship programs as a result of the project and that 109 apprentices of the first cohort have completed their training in February 2016. The June 2017 management supervision report for the same project noted that by December 2016, 2359 youth were enrolled in dual apprenticeship programs of which, 27 percent were women. (ISR:MS). The ISR also noted that a group of 620 (of which 48 percent were women) had completed their training in various domains of agriculture such as poultry, agri-food processing, and fish farming and that 392 would be completing their training by early June 2017 Target Achieved 8. CPS Objective: Increased Access to Water, Sanitation, Health and Population Services Indicator: Number of additional The Urban Water and Sanitation Project At PLR stage, the target people in selected urban areas (P117365, FY11) and the related of 480,000 was replaced provided with access to additional financing project (P159240, by 509,000 following the improved water sources. FY16) supported this outcome by Urban Water and Target: 509,000 (2015) seeking to expand access and Sanitation project’s sustainability of water services in restructuring new Niamey, three other cities, and 18 indicators). secondary urban centers. The urban water component would focus on distribution (except in some secondary centers where expanding production is necessary) including social connections to improve the quality of services. The June 2016 ISR:S noted that the number of people in urban areas provided with access to Improved Water Sources under the project was 536,750 in 2015. The June 2017 ISR:S indicated that by May 2017, the number still stood at 536,750 (ISR:S) Target Achieved Indicator: Number of additional The Urban Water and Sanitation Project At the PLR stage and students provided with access to (P117365, FY11) and the related following the Urban sanitation services in their additional financing project (P159240, Water and Sanitation schools: FY16) supported this outcome by project’s restructuring, Target: 60,000 (2015) seeking to expand access to improved the original indicator was school sanitation services. replaced. The original indicator was “Number CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 29 CPS FY13-FY16: Focus Area II: Actual Results IEG Comments Reducing Vulnerability (as of current month/year) To support this outcome, the Bank also of additional people delivered a NLTA report titled provided with access to “Strengthening Water Supply and improved Sanitation in Sanitation Planning and Monitoring selected urban areas: Systems in Niger,” in FY15. 235,000 by 2015.” The June 2016 ISR:S for the Urban Water and Sanitation project noted that the number of students provided with access to appropriate sanitation facilities in their schools under the project was 52,530 in November 2015. By October 2016, the number of students with access stood at 60,000 (ISR:S) Target Achieved Indicator: Number of sex workers This outcome was supported by the At the PLR stage and seen at health facilities after Second HIV/AIDS Support Project following the 2nd phase referral by NGOs. (P116167, FY11) whose objective was HIV/AIDS Support Baseline: 0 to increase access to HIV/AIDS and project’s restructuring, Target: 5,000 (2015) STI-related services by high risk groups. the original indicator was According to the management replaced. The original completion report, ICR:S, the number of indicator was “Number sex workers seen at health facilities of sex workers screened after referral by NGOs increased from 0 for sexually transmitted in 2011 to 7,500 in 2014 and to 12,907 diseases increased from in 2016. 0 in 2012 to 3000 in Target Achieved 2015. Indicator: Number of sex workers This outcome was supported by the At the PLR stage and treated for Sexual Transmitted Second HIV/AIDS Support Project following the 2nd phase Infection (STI). (P116167, FY11). According to the HIV/AIDS Support Baseline: 0 ICR:S, the number of sex workers project’s restructuring, Target: 500 (2015) treated for STIs increased from 0 in the original indicator was 2011 to 5,000 in 2014 and 12,621 by replaced. The original June 2016. indicator was Target Achieved Percentage of modern contraceptive use among women increased from 16% in 2012 to 20% by 2015 CPS FY13-FY16: Focus Area III: Mainstreaming Gender and Actual Results Strengthening Governance and IEG Comments (as of current month/year) Capacity for Public Service Delivery 9. CPS Objective: Improved Budget Execution and Efficiency Major Indicator: Budget execution ratio This outcome was supported by the At the PLR stage, the Outcome of own funded expenditures Reform Management and Technical target for the budget Measures (actual/budget) Assistance Project (P108253, FY10) execution ratio was which sought to improve: (i) the lowered from 90% to Baseline: 75% (2011) credibility and reliability of budgets 80%. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 30 CPS FY13-FY16: Focus Area III: Mainstreaming Gender and Actual Results Strengthening Governance and IEG Comments (as of current month/year) Capacity for Public Service Delivery Target: 80% (2015) allocated to budget managers in each ministry; and (ii) the internal controls of The CLR suggests that the use of said budgets. The outcome this indicator was not was also supported by the Capacity for well defined because the Service Delivery project (P145261, precise basis on which FY14) which sought to improve execution rates were to investment budget execution in be calculated, was not selected priority sectors. The three specified. Instead, the Shared Growth Credit DPOs I CLR proposes an (P125272 FY12), II (P132757, FY13), increase in the PEFA and III (P145251, FY14) also performance indicator 1 supported this outcome. as a substitute i.e. Total expenditure realized The management completion report for relative to initially the Shared Growth Credit DPOs approved budget. Based ICR:MU indicated that by 2014 the on this modified overall budget execution rate had risen indicator, the CLR rates to an estimated 82 percent. this outcome as Not A recent project appraisal report for an achieved because “the African Development Bank project score for PEFA indicator indicated that the Budget Execution 1 remained unchanged rate in 2015 was 85.77% during the period” However, according to Based on the new indicator proposed the Niger 2016 PEFA in the CLR, this target is rated as: report, the score for PI-1 Achieved improved from D in 2012 to B in 2016. The 2016 PEFA report indicated that “Excluding debt service financing and externally financed projects, deviations in budget execution from the amounts initially forecast are lower than in the 2012 evaluation.” Indicator: Share of public This outcome was supported by the The CLR maintains that procurement contracts awarded Shared Growth credits I (P125272, this indicator was not through competitive bidding. FY12), II (P132757, FY13) and III well defined and (P145251, FY14) all of which sought to proposes the following Baseline: improve public financial management alternative indicator: Target: Share maintained above in part by supporting several policy Increase in rating of 75 % reforms in the area of procurement. PEFA performance This outcome was also supported by indicator P-19 (Public an IDF grant for Procurement reform competitive bidding, (P130134, FY13). The objective of the optimal use of grant was to support Niger resources, and public Government 's procurement system by procurement thresholds. i) strengthening the institutional The CLR then rates the capacity of the actors involved in outcome as Achieved CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 31 CPS FY13-FY16: Focus Area III: Mainstreaming Gender and Actual Results Strengthening Governance and IEG Comments (as of current month/year) Capacity for Public Service Delivery procurement (regulatory agency, because the score for governments institutions and control PEFA indicator 19 did agencies, supreme audit institutions, not change during the private sectors and civil society) and ii) period. improving the transparency through the development of tools for In the 2012 PEFA report, implementing the Procurement Code the procurement (simplified Standard bidding indicator (PI-19: documents, sanctions study, Competition, value for disseminations campaigns on specific money and controls in points of the Code). procurement) was assigned a score of B+. According to IEG:MU for the Shared In the 2016 PEFA report, Growth Credits, the share of the new Procurement procurement contracts competitively indicator (PI-24: tendered by both number and value Procurement) also increased from 68% and 81% to 93% received a score of B+. and 91% respectively. Therefore, there was no increase in the score for Based on the new indicator proposed the procurement in the CLR, this target is rated as: indicator across the two Target Not Achieved reports. Furthermore, the 2016 PEFA report mentions that the percentage of contracts awarded through competitive bidding seems to have deteriorated compared to the situation evaluated in 2012. 10. CPS Objective: Improved Transparency of Sector Budget Allocations Indicator: Number of budgetary This outcome was supported by the At the PLR stage, the documents published based on First Public Investment Reform target for the number of the ‘Open budget initiative Support credit (P151487, FY16) which budgetary documents classification)’ supported policy measures to published was lowered progressively improve the timeliness, from 6 to 2. Baseline: 1 (2012) comprehensiveness and detail of Target: 2 (2015) quarterly budget execution reports. According to the results of the Open Budget survey of 2015, two of the eight key budget documents were publicly available online in a timeframe consistent with international standards. It is worth noting however that the 2016 update of the Open Budget CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 32 CPS FY13-FY16: Focus Area III: Mainstreaming Gender and Actual Results Strengthening Governance and IEG Comments (as of current month/year) Capacity for Public Service Delivery survey found that none of the eight key budget documents were publicly available online in a timeframe consistent with international standards signaling a backtracking on the budget transparency agenda. Target Not Achieved 11. CPS Objective: Improved Transparency in the Mining and Oil Sector Indicator: EITI Reports published This outcome was supported by an No baseline specified annually EITI Post Compliance trust fund grant (P126186, FY11) which supported the Baseline: drafting of a proposed law on transparency in the full disclosure of information on revenue generated from extractive industry activities in the Recipient's territory. The Niger page of the EITI website shows the availability of the 2010-2017 EITI annual progress reports as well as reports from earlier periods. Nevertheless, following the 2017 EITI validation exercise for Niger, the board of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, EITI, suspended the Niger Republic for failure to make meaningful progress against key issues in the 2016 EITI Standards. Outstanding EITI requirements included transparent systems for license allocation, the lack of a comprehensive public license register, gaps between the government policy on contract transparency as mandated by the constitution and the practice of limited disclosure of contracts. In November 2017, the government of Niger announced its withdrawal from EITI implementation. Target Partially Achieved. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 33 Annex Table 2: Niger Planned and Actual Lending, FY13 - FY16 Approved Lending Project Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Outcome Project name IDA Comments Instrument ID FY FY FY Amount Rating Amount Type CPS/ Project Planned Under CPS/PLR 2012-2016 PLR NE Skills Development for P126049 2013 2013 2020 30.0 30.0 LIR: MS INVESTMENT Growth Project NE - Transport Sector Prog P131107 2013 2013 2016 19.5 19.5 INVESTMENT Spt Proj (AF) Niger Community Action P132306 2013 2013 2020 40.0 40.0 LIR: S INVESTMENT Programm Phase 3 First Part of the Second Phase of the Niger Basin Water Resources P130174 Development and 2013 2021 203.0 LIR: U REGIONAL INVESTMENT Sustainable Ecosystems Management Pr ogram - APL 2A NE-Second Shared Growth P132757 2013 2013 2014 50.0 50.0 IEG: MU ADJUSTMENT Credit NE-Third Shared Growth P145251 2014 2014 2015 50.0 70.0 IEG: MU ADJUSTMENT Credit NE-Capacity for Service P145261 2014 2014 2019 20.5 40.0 LIR: MS INVESTMENT Delivery Niger DRM and Urban P145268 2014 2014 2020 100.0 100.0 LIR: MS INVESTMENT Development Project Regional Sahel Pastoralism P147674 2015 2022 45.0 45.0 LIR: S REGIONAL INVESTMENT Support Project Sahel Malaria and P149526 Neglected Tropical 2015 2020 37.0 37.0 LIR: MS REGIONAL INVESTMENT Diseases Sahel Women's P150080 Empowerment and 2015 2020 53.6 53.5 LIR: MS REGIONAL INVESTMENT Demographics Project Population and Health P147638 2015 2015 2022 103.0 103.0 LIR: S INVESTMENT Support Project PRODEX Additional P148681 2015 2015 2018 13.8 13.8 INVESTMENT Financing P151487 First Pub Inv Reform Sppt 2016 2016 2017 80.0 80.0 LIR: MS INVESTMENT Climate Smart Agricult P153420 2016 2016 2023 111.0 111.0 LIR: S INVESTMENT Support Project Electricity Access P153743 2016 2016 2022 65.0 65.0 LIR: S INVESTMENT Expansion Project WARCIP - Regional WA 2014 10.0 DROPPED INVESTMENT Com. Infrastructure Total Planned 828.4 1,060.8 Unplanned Projects during the CPS and PLR Period NE-Adaptive Social Safety P155846 2016 2019 22.5 INVESTMENT Nets Project (AF) P159240 URB WAT & SAN (AF) 2016 2020 70.0 INVESTMENT Total unplanned 92.5 Annexes CLR Review 34 Independent Evaluation Group Approved Lending On-going Projects during the CPS and Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Outcome IDA Comments Instrument PLR Period FY FY FY Amount Rating Amount Type NE-MS Demographic SIL P096198 2007 2013 10.0 IEG: MU INVESTMENT (FY07) NE-Loc Urb Infrastructure Dev P095949 2008 2013 30.0 IEG: MS INVESTMENT SIL (FY08) NE-Transport Sector Program P101434 2008 2016 30.0 LIR: S INVESTMENT SIM (FY08) Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable P093806 2008 2018 15.0 LIR: S REGIONAL INVESTMENT Ecosystems Management Project NE - Agro-Pastoral Export P095210 2009 2018 40.0 LIR: S INVESTMENT Promotion Proj Community Action Program P102354 2009 2013 30.0 IEG: MS INVESTMENT (APL-2) Niger Reform Management P108253 2010 2017 10.0 ICR: MS INVESTMENT and TA NE-HIV/AIDS Support Project P116167 2011 2017 20.0 IEG:S INVESTMENT II (FY11) NE-Urban Water and P117365 2011 2020 90.0 LIR: S INVESTMENT Sanitation Project P123399 Niger Safety Net Project 2011 2019 70.0 LIR: S INVESTMENT West Africa Agricultural P122065 Productivity Program APL 2011 2020 30.0 LIR: S REGIONAL INVESTMENT (WAAPP-1C) P125272 NIGER - Shared Growth Credit I 2012 2013 50.0 IEG: MU ADJUSTMENT Competitiveness & Growth P127204 2012 2019 50.0 LIR: MS INVESTMENT Support Total On-going 475.0 Source: WB Business Intelligence 12/08/2017 Annexes CLR Review 35 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3: Advisory Services and Analytics Deliveries for Niger, FY13-16 Fiscal Proj ID Economic & Sector Work Output Type year P127537 NIGER - PEMFAR update and dialogue FY14 Public Expenditure Review (PER) NIGER - Policy Notes on Growth and P127544 FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Poverty Debt management Performance P130410 DeMPA Assessment - Niger FY14 Assessment(DeMPA) Gender, Agency and Economic P132794 FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Development P133792 Security Sector Public Expenditure Review FY14 Public Expenditure Review (PER) P143617 Country Status Report for Health FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P148852 NE - Country Statistical Assessment Mgt FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P149721 Niger Allocative Efficiency Study FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P144949 Niger Reform Plan FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P146536 Niger - Policy Notes Series 2 FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Fiscal Proj ID Non-Lending Technical Assistance Output Type year P125257 Niger #10091 Financial Sector Devt Strategy FY13 Technical Assistance P098637 Energy Sector Assessment (FY10) FY14 Technical Assistance P119212 NE-Local Development (Kandadji) FY14 Technical Assistance NE:GAC Strategy and Institutional P128243 FY14 Technical Assistance Development. P133229 Advisory on Rural Finance FY14 Technical Assistance P143820 Social Protection for building resilience FY14 Technical Assistance P127161 CSO - Niger FY15 Technical Assistance Strengthening Enabling Environment P133119 FY15 Technical Assistance Sanitation P133120 Strengthening WSS planning and monitoring FY15 Technical Assistance P146896 NE- Extended GAC Review FY15 Technical Assistance P133121 Strengthening the Domestic Private Sector FY16 Technical Assistance P147750 Niger Electricity Access Expansion FY16 Technical Assistance P152010 Financial Sector Strategy Implementation FY16 Technical Assistance Source: WB Business Intelligence 12/08/2017 Annexes CLR Review 36 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 4: Niger Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY13-16 Approved Project Approval Closing Outcome Country Project Name TF ID Amount ID FY FY Rating (US$ M) Carbon Sequestration and Rural Niger P095346 Livelihoods Improvements through Acacia TF 57572 2007 2019 2.1 Plantations Integrated Ecosystems Management in Niger P107841 TF 92411 2009 2013 4.7 Niger (APL phase 2) Niger Second Emergency Food Security Niger P123567 TF 99561 2011 2015 15.0 IEG: S Support Project Niger Community Action Project for Niger P125669 TF 98930 2011 2013 0.6 Climate Resilience Niger P123802 LSMS-ISA Niger TF 97661 2011 2017 1.6 Support to National Statiscial Office: Trust Niger P117209 TF 95560 2011 2014 0.2 Fund for Statistical Capacity Building - III Niger Community Action Project for Niger P125669 TF 11426 2012 2019 35.0 LIR: MS Climate Resilience Niger Community Action Project for Niger P125669 TF 11338 2012 2019 28.0 LIR: MS Climate Resilience Niger P126186 Niger EITI - Post Compliance I TF 99427 2012 2013 0.2 Niger P096198 Multi-Sector Demographic Project TF 98265 2012 2013 0.4 IEG:MU Niger P130134 NE PROCUREMENT REFORM TF 14973 2013 2016 0.5 PSG: Integrated Ecosystems Niger P143079 TF 14700 2013 2018 4.5 Management Support to Niger Supreme Audit Institution Niger P131092 TF 14017 2013 2016 0.5 (SAI) Niger Disaster Risk Management and Niger P145932 TF 16000 2014 2020 6.6 LIR: MS Urban Development Project National Strategy for the Development of Niger P129572 TF 12013 2014 2017 0.3 Statistics - 2 Niger Africa Extrative Industries Trust Niger P150108 TF 18145 2015 2018 1.4 Fund Niger - GPE - Support to Quality Niger P132405 TF 16565 2015 2019 84.2 LIR: S Education Project Niger P148839 Niger Investment Climate Support TF A0809 2016 2019 3.8 Niger P123399 Niger Safety Net Project TF A2304 2016 2018 8.5 LIR: S Total 198.0 Source: Client Connection as of 11/14/17 IEG Validates RETF that are 5M and above Annexes CLR Review 37 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Niger, FY13-16 Exit IEG Risk to Net Country Proj ID Project Name IEG Outcome FY DO Rating Commitments NE-Loc Urb Infrastructure MODERATELY 2013 Niger P095949 SIGNIFICANT 19.9 Dev SIL (FY08) SATISFACTORY NE-MS Demographic SIL MODERATELY 2013 Niger P096198 SIGNIFICANT 10.4 (FY07) UNSATISFACTORY Community Action MODERATELY 2013 Niger P102354 SIGNIFICANT 28.9 Program (APL-2) SATISFACTORY NIGER - Shared Growth MODERATELY 2013 Niger P125272 HIGH 49.5 Credit(s) UNSATISFACTORY* NE: Second Emergency 2015 Niger P123567 SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT 0.0 Food Security Project Total 108.6 Source: Business Intelligence IEG Ratings as of 02/06/18 Note: *This project rating is for the Shared Growth Credits I, II, and III (P125272, P132757, P145251) Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Niger and Comparators, FY13-16 RDO % RDO % Total Total Country/ Outcome Outcome Moderate or Moderate or Evaluated Evaluated Region % Sat ($) % Sat (No) Lower Lower ($M) (No) Sat ($)* Sat (No) Niger 108.6 5 44.9 60 0.0 0 AFR 15,501.4 300 74.5 66 36.0 31 World 86,654.3 1,016 83.9 71 53.5 43 Source: Business Intelligence as of 02/06/18 *Refer to Annex Table 5 for IEG Ratings for Risk for Development Outcome (RDO). Annexes CLR Review 38 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Niger and Comparators, FY13-16 Average Fiscal year 2013 2014 2015 2016 FY13-16 Niger # Proj 13 14 15 18 15 % At Risk 23 29 27 22 25 Net Comm Amt 532.2 698.7 816.0 1,116.5 791 # Proj At Risk 3 4 4 4 4 Comm At Risk 163.0 225.0 268.7 219.6 219 % Commit at Risk 31 32 33 20 29 AFR # Proj 566 620 643 659 622 % At Risk 23 22 21 22 22 Net Comm Amt 42,649.1 49,142.6 54,586.3 59,033.9 51,353 # Proj At Risk 128 138 136 144 137 Comm At Risk 14,310.8 16,548.2 16,000.3 18,949.8 16,452 % Commit at Risk 34 34 29 32 32 World # Proj 1,964 2,048 2,022 1,975 2,002 % At Risk 21 20 22 21 21 Net Comm Amt 176,202.6 192,610.1 201,045.2 220,331.5 197,547 # Proj At Risk 414 412 444 422 423 Comm At Risk 40,805.6 40,933.5 45,987.7 44,244.9 42,993 % Commit at Risk 23 21 23 20 22 Source: Business Intelligence as of 02/06/18 Note: Includes both IDA projects and Trust Fund grants. Annexes CLR Review 39 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Niger, FY13-16 Overall Fiscal year 2013 2014 2015 2016 Result Niger Disbursement Ratio (%) 18.1 17.2 22.9 26.1 21.6 Inv Disb in FY 45.23 51.77 81.59 102.62 281.20 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 250.4 301.2 355.7 392.5 1,299.8 AFR Disbursement Ratio (%) 22.1 22.8 24.2 19.4 22.1 Inv Disb in FY 5,299.00 5,733.50 6,065.10 5,161.20 22,258.80 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 23,950.4 25,191.6 25,054.6 26,631.7 100,828.3 World Disbursement Ratio (%) 19.8 20.2 21.2 18.8 20.0 Inv Disb in FY 19,050.00 19,414.20 20,317.90 19,401.10 78,183.20 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 96,038.8 96,254.9 95,816.0 103,447.2 391,556.8 * Calculated as IBRD/IDA Disbursements in FY / Opening Undisbursed Amount at FY. Restricted to Lending Instrument Type = Investment. Business Intelligence disbursement ratio table as of 12/08/17 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Niger, FY13-16 Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer FY13 103.9 1.9 102.0 0.0 3.0 98.9 FY14 108.9 2.6 106.3 0.0 3.9 102.4 FY15 164.9 3.1 161.9 0.0 4.1 157.8 FY16 203.4 3.4 200.1 0.0 4.6 195.5 Report Total 581.2 11.0 570.2 0.0 15.6 554.6 World Bank Client Connection 12/08/17 Annexes CLR Review 40 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid, 2013-2015 Development Partners 2013 2014 2015 Australia 4.47 0.33 0.27 Austria 0.49 0.06 0.03 Belgium 25.01 17.38 17.13 Canada 20.70 7.34 10.53 Czech Republic .. .. 0.08 Denmark 12.91 10.03 12.41 Finland 1.33 .. 0.03 France 67.02 52.84 51.18 Germany 22.52 26.89 24.42 Greece .. .. .. Hungary .. .. 0.00 Iceland .. .. .. Ireland 3.26 3.02 2.16 Italy 1.86 3.44 2.66 Japan 34.47 32.05 27.69 Korea 0.09 0.50 0.53 Luxembourg 15.50 19.76 23.64 Netherlands .. .. .. New Zealand .. .. .. Norway 9.94 10.40 11.20 Poland .. .. .. Portugal 0.00 .. .. Slovak Republic .. .. .. Slovenia .. .. .. Spain 5.88 17.44 7.45 Sweden 8.00 7.54 5.52 Switzerland 24.13 26.81 29.73 United Kingdom .. 0.18 .. United States 78.33 79.29 111.90 DAC Countries, Total 335.91 315.30 338.56 EU Institutions 183.63 261.14 227.20 International Monetary Fund, Total 17.15 51.43 54.57 IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) 17.15 51.43 54.57 Regional Development Banks, Total 41.47 31.68 50.98 African Development Bank, Total 29.85 27.26 46.81 African Development Bank [AfDB] .. 0.01 0.01 African Development Fund [AfDF] 29.85 27.25 46.79 Asian Development Bank, Total .. .. .. Asian Development Bank [AsDB] .. .. .. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 41 Development Partners 2013 2014 2015 AsDB Special Funds .. .. .. Inter-American Development Bank, Total .. .. .. Inter-American Development Bank [IDB] .. .. .. IDB Special Fund .. .. .. Caribbean Development Bank [CarDB] .. .. .. Council of Europe Development Bank [CEB] .. .. .. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development [EBRD] .. .. .. Islamic Development Bank [IsDB] 11.63 4.42 4.17 United Nations, Total 53.00 61.74 60.78 Food and Agriculture Organisation [FAO] 0.32 .. .. International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] .. .. 0.15 IFAD .. .. 9.34 International Labour Organisation [ILO] 0.32 0.58 0.50 UNAIDS 0.49 0.37 0.37 UNDP 8.81 9.26 8.16 UNECE .. .. .. UNEP .. .. .. UNFPA 3.78 3.27 3.64 UNHCR 0.31 .. .. UNICEF 20.82 19.88 19.71 UN Peacebuilding Fund [UNPBF] 0.74 1.79 0.55 UNRWA .. .. .. WFP 15.65 24.88 15.90 World Health Organisation [WHO] 1.75 1.71 2.45 World Bank Group, Total 116.66 145.60 96.76 World Bank, Total 116.66 145.60 96.76 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development [IBRD] .. .. .. International Development Association [IDA] 116.66 145.60 96.76 International Finance Corporation [IFC] .. .. .. Other Multilateral, Total 52.21 70.60 55.01 Adaptation Fund .. .. .. Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa [BADEA] 3.21 3.39 1.41 Arab Fund (AFESD) .. .. .. Climate Investment Funds [CIF] 1.33 5.33 2.62 Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization [GAVI] 20.78 19.14 30.52 Global Environment Facility [GEF] 3.93 4.86 3.81 Global Fund 14.18 35.41 15.32 Global Green Growth Institute [GGGI] .. .. .. Montreal Protocol .. .. .. Nordic Development Fund [NDF] .. .. .. OPEC Fund for International Development [OFID] 8.78 2.47 1.33 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 42 Development Partners 2013 2014 2015 OSCE .. .. .. Multilateral Agencies, Total 464.11 622.20 545.29 Azerbaijan .. .. .. Bulgaria .. .. .. Croatia .. .. .. Cyprus .. .. .. Estonia .. .. .. Israel .. .. .. Kazakhstan .. .. .. Kuwait (KFAED) -2.03 -1.86 0.65 Latvia .. .. .. Liechtenstein .. .. .. Lithuania .. .. .. Malta .. .. .. Romania .. .. .. Russia .. .. .. Saudi Arabia .. .. .. Chinese Taipei .. .. .. Thailand .. .. .. Timor-Leste .. .. .. Turkey 9.62 4.13 8.90 United Arab Emirates 0.24 0.53 0.65 Other donor countries .. .. .. Non-DAC Countries, Total 7.83 2.80 10.20 Development Partners, Total 807.85 940.30 894.05 Source: OECD Stat as of 12/08/17 Annexes CLR Review 43 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Niger, 2013 – 2016 Niger SSA World Series Name 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average 2013-2016 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 5.3 7.0 3.6 5.0 5.2 3.4 2.7 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 1.3 3.0 -0.3 1.1 1.3 0.7 1.4 GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) 880.0 930.0 950.0 970.0 932.5 3498.5 15403.0 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 400.0 420.0 390.0 370.0 395.0 1642.4 10653.6 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 2.3 -0.9 1.0 0.2 0.6 4.6 2.1 Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) .. .. .. .. .. 18 4 Industry, value added (% of GDP) .. .. .. .. .. 25 28 Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) .. .. .. .. .. 57 68 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 36.0 37.7 38.8 .. 37.5 20.6 23.5 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 22.6 21.0 17.2 .. 20.3 27.3 30.0 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 39.1 39.2 39.4 .. 39.2 31.3 29.4 Current account balance (% of GDP) -15.0 .. .. .. -15.0 .. .. External debt stocks (% of GNI) 35.6 33.0 41.2 43.5 38.3 .. .. Total debt service (% of GNI) 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.0 2.1 .. Total reserves in months of imports .. .. .. .. .. 4.9 13.4 Fiscal Accounts* General government revenue (% of GDP) 24.6 23.0 23.5 20.6 22.9 18.9 .. General government total expenditure (% of GDP) 27.2 31.1 32.5 26.8 29.4 22.9 .. General government net lending/borrowing (% of GDP) -2.6 -8.0 -9.1 -6.2 -6.5 -4.0 .. General government gross debt (% of GDP) 26.3 32.0 41.0 46.3 36.4 35.9 .. Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 58.7 59.2 59.7 .. 59.2 59.4 71.7 Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months) 67.0 68.0 65.0 67.0 66.8 73.3 85.3 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 10.5 10.8 10.9 .. 10.7 29.4 67.0 Improved water source (% of population with access) 57.3 58.1 58.2 .. 57.9 66.6 90.5 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 55.6 53.8 52.3 50.9 53.2 55.9 32.0 Education School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) 7.0 7.1 7.4 .. 7.2 21.1 47.4 School enrollment, primary (% gross) 70.2 70.6 72.5 .. 71.1 98.1 104.7 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 16.8 18.8 20.7 .. 18.8 42.5 76.1 Population Population, total (millions) 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.7 19.5 992.4 7,312.3 Population growth (annual %) 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 2.8 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.0 18.6 37.5 53.6 Source: DDP as of 11/16/17 *International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2017 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 44 Annex Table 12: List of IFC Advisory Services in Niger Advisory Services Approved in FY13-16 Advisory Services Approved in FY13-17 Primary Project Impl Impl Project Total Project Name Business ID Start FY End FY Status Funds, US$ Line 600247 Niger Irrigation Program 2014 2019 ACTIVE MAS 2,104,972 Sub-Total 2,104,972 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY13 but active during FY13-17 Primary Project Impl Impl Project Total Project Name Business ID Start FY End FY Status Funds, US$ Line 28148 Niger Port 2010 2015 ACTIVE CAS 1,528,229 Sub-Total 1,528,229 TOTAL 3,633,201 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY13 but active during FY13-17 Annex Table 13: IFC net commitment activity in Niger, FY13 - FY16 (US$, 000) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Trade Finance (TF) 4,000,000 1,801,468 1,000,000 6,801,468 Tourism, Retail, Construction & Real Retail 19,480 (522,700) - (503,220) Estates (TRP) Total 4,019,480 1,278,768 1,000,000 - - 6,298,248 Source: IFC MIS as of 10/20/17 Annex Table 14: List of MIGA Activities 2013-2016 (US$, millions) Project Max Gross ID Contract Enterprise FY Sector Investor Status Issuance Cotecna Inspection S.A., 8429 2013 Not Active Services Switzerland 6 Niamey Liaison Office Total 6 Source: MIGA 10/24/17