69436 Development Strategy Institute (DSI) Worldbank REPORT ON SUSTAINABLE USE OF LAND AND WATER RESOURCES in regional MASTER SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PALNNING for MEKONG DELTA UNDER THE CONTEXT OF VIETNAM INTERGARATION INTO globalL economics Prepared by: Associate Prof. Dr. Hoang Sy Dong Dr. Nguyen Van Phuong Msc. Nguyen Quanh Vinh Eng. Trinh Quang Vinh 1 Hanoi, 2009 Contents Abbreviation Abstract Part I Objective, contents and methods of the study I. Objectives of the study II. Contents of the study III. Method of the study part II analysis and assessment of the reviewed-adjusted-amended regional master development plan to 2010 and of land and water resources in mekong delta I. Analysis and assessment of the Reviewed-adjusted-amended Regional Master Development Plan to 2010 for Mekong Delta II. Impact of international and national context on development planning for Mekong Delta III. Analysis and assessment of land and water resources in Mekong Delta under the context of Vietnam intergration into global economics IV. Case studies on utilization of land and water resources in regional development planning and production of agriculture products for export part IiI recommendations for improvement of quality and effectiveness of utilization of land and water in regional development planning for mekong delta to 2020 I. General principles II. Orientations for planning of land and water resources III. Recommendations for sustainable production of agriculture commodities for export in regional development planning under the context of Vietnam intergaration into global economics 2 conclusion references ABBREVIATIONS DoI = Development of infrastruture RS = Resources; CE = Cooperated Exploitation; HRD = Human resources development; S&S = State and Society; IP = Industrialized period; AP = Authority and people; BP = Bussiness /production; IC = Investment and cooperation; CC = Central city; GEV = Gained economic value; WR = Water resource; LR = Land resource. DSI = Development Strategy Institute MONRE = Ministry of Natural Resources and Envirenment MARD = Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development 3 Abstracts Planning in general and socio-economic developemnt planning of Vietnam in particular, is an emerging issue at National Assemble, Prime Ministry Office, Sectors as well as at local authorites. In the world, countries and international organizations are actively changing in developmet planning which is aiming at improving the quality of planning contents and feasibility of the plans and making plans to be more consistent with the reaslistic conditions. Regional Master Socio-economic Development Plan for Mekong Delta to 2010 had been reviewed, adjusted and amended and, Prime Minister had authorized Minister of Planning and Investment (MPI) to approve the plan in 2007. However, due to the changes of circumstance of the world and of the country such as financial and economic crisises...since, it reconized that the plan is in needs of some adjustments and amendment. Moreover, although natural resources in the region are rich, but the region is considered as a poor one plus shortage of human resources, since the region is classified as underdeveloped. Analysis and assessment of land and water resources and of models of production of comodities for export conducted by DSI and funded by Worldbank indicated that Vietnam has not paid attention to this contents nor notivated the methods of researches. Study of three above issues, under the context of Vietnam intergaration into global economics, is very necessary. Moreover, analysis of constraints, challenges, advantages and oppoturnities in resoures utilization will contribute in identification of development oppoturnities, of commodities production for export and of poverty reduction chance. Currently, Prime Minister has assigned MPI to conduct socio-economic development planning for six regions from now to the year of 2020. Since, analysis and assessment of the reviewed- adjusted-ammended socio-economic development plan to the year 2010 and review of utilization of land and water resources and of comodity production models for export are very necessary for regional master socio-economic development planning to the year 2020. The study directly provide recommendations for improvement of the quality of the regional master socio-economic development plan and national laud use plans to the year 2020. The study was carried out in a participatory approach by a consortium of the Section of Research and Department for Productive Industries Development of DSI and South Water Resources Planning Institute and Centre for Land Investigation and Planning with application of many sets of tools like SWOT, GIS... 4 The study team would like to express greate thanks to Worldbank, DSI, especially scientific adviser Prof. Dr Ngo Doan Vinh, Chairman of DSI and Msc Nguyen Ngoc Anh, Director of South Water Resources Planning Institute and senior expert Doan Hong Quang for his valuable contribution. PART II Objective, contents and methods of the study I. Objective of the study Analysis and assessment of the reviewed-adjusted-ammended socio-economic development plan for Mekong Delta are aiming at improvement of quality and feasibility of regional socio- economic development plans and making the plans sustainable until the year 2020 under context of industrialization and modernization and Vietnam intergaration into global economics based on the changed approaches and indepth analysis and assessment of land and water resources and of case studies on export commodity production models with consideration of their potential, compatitive advantages and scientific and realistic facts. II. Contents of the study Based on the TOR provided by the Worldbank, the study group has defined main duties of this study are as follows: a. Analyse and assess methodology approaches applied, tools used and contents of the reviewed- adjusted-ammended master socio-economic development plan to the year 2010 in Mekong Delta; and support regional master socio-economic development planning to the year 2020. b. Analyse and assess management and utilization of land and water resources; conduct case studies at local level and the results of case studies will provide input for regional master socio- economic development planning in Mekong Delta with special focus on sustainability, inter- regional linkage and intensive farming of export commodities production with own branch names under the context of Vietnam intergration into global economics; c. Based on the fact findings (both advantages and constraints), management interventions for sustainable and effective utilization of land and water resources that to increase production productivity, quantity of comodities, especially export goods, are recommended for regional master socio-economic development planning for Mekong Delta to the year of 2020. d. Scope of the study is bounded within Mekong Delta, focus on land and water resources utilization in production of agriculture goods for export (such products like rice, catfish, shrimp, 5 and fruit) with consideration of inter-sectorial and inter-national linkages and advantages of reform, open policies and promotion of Vietnam intergration into global economics. III. Method of the study The study is implemented with participatory approaches with participation of many stakeholders which were led by DSI. The consortium encompasses of DSI of MPI, General Land Administration Department of MoNRE, South Water Resources Planning Institute of MARD and of scientists, managers who are currently working in Mekong Delta. Analitical and expertised methods are used for this study at the aim of satisfying objective and duties stated in the TOR which include assessment of the approaches, tools, constraints whose findings will be served for review, adjustment and amendment of the plans for Mekong Delta to the year 2020. Statistical and expert-advised methods with the tools like WSOT, GIS are used for review of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges and models on management and utilization of land and water resources. The findings will provide input for regional master socio-economic development planning to the year 2020 for Mekong Delta Expert-advised methods with the support of the tools are used in planning aiming at improving quality and feasibility of the regional master socio-economic development plan to the year 2020 for Mekong Delta. For implementation of these tasts, the Study Team proposes following steps: Step 1: Apply WSOT to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges Step 2: Apply statistic, GIS... to assessing management and utilization of land and water resources in the region; conduct case studies at local level, on production of export agriculture comodities. The results of case studies will provide input for regional masterocio-economic development plans to the year 2020 in Mekong Delta; Step 3: Apply expert-advised methods for analysing, explaining, selecting and recommending measures for utilization of resources and for production of export agriculture commodities models; Research on sustainable utilization of land and water resources and case studies on production of export agriculture commodities models ecompass of three sections as below: Section 1: objective, contents and methods of the study 6 Section 2: Analyse and assess and review regional master socio-economic development plan to the year 2010 for Mekong Delta and of utilization of land and water resources in Mekong delta. For this section, the Study Team also conducts case studies on export comodities at the places. Section 3: Recommend measures for improvement of quality and effectiveness of utilization of land and water resources in regional master socio-economic development planning to the year 2020 for Mekong Delta Moreover, the Study Team also applies some tools like semi-structured interview, macro- economic prediction modelling, workshops, internet, ... with multi-sectoral coordination and multi-national coorperation under the dialectical relations between these two types of resources aiming at improvement of quality and scientific contents in recommended management interventions. 7 PART II ANALYSIS, ASSESSMENT OF THE REVIEWED REGIONAL MASTER DEVELOPMENT PLAN TO THE YEAR 2010 AND OF LAND AND WATER RESOURCES IN MEKONG DELTA I. Analysis and assessment of the reviewed-adjusted-amended regional master development plan to the year 2010 for Mekong Delta 1.1. Methodology approaches, tools used in planning 1.1.1. Approaches in socio-economic development planning Theoretically, participatory approaches, which are led by DSI, are applied for regional master socio-economic development planning which are considered as a major change and progress in the development planning, but in somehow, top-down appraoches in planning are still existed and applied. Since, a Chairmanship Board was established, but it does not encompass all concerned stakeholders. The indepth study on the reviewed-adjusted-amended plan for Mekong Delta to the year 2010 showed the lack of references and data sources or citation from the other sectors or experts of the other sectors. Organize workshops and conferences with participants from Ministries and Departments under MPI for gathering comments or registration of research themes. However, the review showed that the results of researchs had not fully been used in review, adjustment and amendment of the regional planning. Contribution of Ministries, Sectors and Departments by writing (some pages) and direct oral comments at the workshops (normally three workshops) were insufficient. The decision on establishemnt of Appraisal Committee and comments of Ministries and Departments were just formalized and unqualified due to shortage of fund. The researches revealed that in order to bring into play the strengths and mitigate weaknesses, and challenges in utilization and management of land and water resources and in production of important export comodities, it requires active paricipation of senior experts from these sectors. Only this way enables to improve quality and feasibility of the reviewed-adjusted-amended regional master plan. Moreover, it seems to be that the review, adjustment and amendment of the 8 regional matser plan has been implemented without analysis and assessment of national and international context, especially of the circumstence of the world financial and economic crisises and of Vietnam intergration into global economics. 1.1.2. Application of tools in development planning Although it was not described in the report, but the Study Team recognized the following tools were used in the review, adjustment and amendment of the regional master socio-ecoomic development plan for Mekong Delta: Policies of the Party, Government; Decree 92; Technical guidelines for regional master socio-ecoomic development planning (technical contents of the guidelines were used for reference); macro economic prediction modeling for a 5-year period; and SWOT. For spatial socio-economic issues, the Study Team also resognized the short use of GIS. It just described some functions of GIS, but not yet applied it for the analysis and calculation of figure in spatial planning so its use effectiveness is low. The study result showed that structured interviews, conferences, workshops, comments, internet...were also used for improvement of quality and effectiveness for regional planning in general, and for Mekong Delta in particular. However, participatory approaches need to be more comprehensive and the tools, especially guidelines on regional master development planning which were approved by Ministery level, are in needs. 1.1.3. Method for land and water resources planning Major difference between regional master socio-economic development planning and land use and water resources planning is that MONRE and MARD have issued “technical guidelines on land use planning“ and “technical guidelines on water resource planning“. The guidelines both described the approaches and concrrete methods for planning. Moreover, the planning experts used the tools more effectively and progressively compared with the experts of the socio- economic sectors which are applicaton of GIS and remote sensing technique... However, land and water resource planning is till suffering the low cost norm and short period of implementation. Appraisal procedure for these two resources is till formalized. 1.2. Contents of the reviewed-adjusted-amended regional master socio-economic development plan for Mekong Delta to the year 2010 1.2.1. Advantages of the reviewed-adjusted-amended development plan a. Amended version is based on the mechanism of market-oriented economics The contents of the amended regional plan are of quite general orientations and not as detailed as the plans which were prepared in the period of central planning because teh curren regionl plan was prepared mainly based on the mechanism of market-oriented economics. This judgement is 9 proved by the result of analysis, assessment of development human resources, socio-economic condition, conceptualizaion, and objectives of planning and development direction of sectors, socio-economic spatial planning, and solutions for implementation e.t.c. which are described in the reviewed-adjusted-amended regional master socio-economic development plan to the year 2010 for Mekong Delta. This is the difference compared to the original regional master socio-economic development plan to the year 2010 which was approved in the ninties of XX century. This different points have principly confirmed that Vietnam is reformed and adapted to the mechanism of market-oriented economics. Since, development planning in general and, regional master socio-economic development planning in particular, have complied with this principle. b. Comprehensiveness, long-life with fundamental development interventions The reviewed-adjusted-amended regional master socio-economic development plan to the year 2010 contains comprehensive and realistic issues (predicted indicators were lowered compared to the ones of the approved version) and timeframe of a five year period which seems much more suitable, especially timeframe allocated for development of infrastructure like habor, air port, urbane. The deeper study of the Study Team showed that in the reviewed-adjusted-amended regional master socio-economic development plan for Mekong Delta, the objectives, economic growth rate, annual GDP per capita, economic structure and orintation, development solutions for agriculture, forestry, aquaculture, industry, construction, services and envirenmental issues to the year 2010 were well analyzed. c. Proposal of frameworks based on which provinces will formulate theri development plan According to the Decree 92, development planning must be based on the existing regional master socio-economic developmet plans. Thus, the reviewed-adjusted-amended regional master socio- economic development plan for Mekong Delta is very important foundation for provicial and sectorial development planning. Nevertheness, main contents for provincial and sectorial development planning to base on are inter-regional issues like road network, sea habor systems, communication facility, land and forest and water resources, tourist network, industry and economic zoning. Objective of concrrete adjustments are proposed in accordance with common development trend that are to low down the indicators for the report of the reviewed-adjusted-amended regional master socio-economic development plan for Mekong Delta com to the year 2010 compared with the indicators stated in the old version which ahs been approved by Prime Minister and that to make the indicators to be more relevant with the realistic conditions. 10 1.2.2. Constraints of the reviewed-adjusted-amended development plan a. Short vision and ambitious objectives Analysis of the reviewed-adjusted-amended regional master socio-economic development plan for Mekong Delta to the year 2010 revealed that plan for the remaining period of three years is of too short vision. Important things now are to analyse and find out the advantages, dificulties, strength, weaknesses, oppotunities, challenges, then to suggest useful recommendations or adjustments for making the reviewed plan usefull. These are the reasons behind the review, adjustment and ammendment of the existing regional master socio-economic development plan under the context of industrialization and intergration of country into global economics. Objectives are ambitious because the indicators for socio-economic development described in the plan for Mekong Delta are too high and even, the indicators presented in the reviewed-adjusted- amended regional master socio-economic development plan are still high. Acorrding to us, beside shortage of deep analysis and assessment on resources, of development context, the main reasons behind this are weaknesses of prediction models. The deeper mathmethical and realistical analysis showed that four factors impacted the predicted results are: 1. “Sickness of achievements“ and inaccuracies of the input data with too high values of predicted outputs which led to wrong statistics and estimation in planning (sometime it was not consistent with the international standard) 2. Mathemetical prediction models used were unable to reflect socio-economic complexities. The models just showed the direct or inverse ralation between indicators with too-long time factors (5 years) with uncareful-studied variables. 3. High level of detail of input and oputput for predicted scenarios has overshadowed the general orientation of the prediction, and even, it disclaimed the scientific and realistic foundation because the outputs are uncontrollable. 4. Prediction skill and knowledge used in socio-economic modelling are very limited because planning experts of Vietnam were not able to use modernized tools for prediction. b. Unclear reasons for review of strength, weaknesses, oppoturnities and challenges After analysis and assessement of the reviewed-adjusted-amended regional master socio- economic development plan to the year 2010 for Mekong Delta, the Study Team of DSI has not recognized the actual reasons for the review, adjustment and amenment of the existing plan. Even, a deeper analysis on the reviewed plan in terms of resources use, of condition for socio- economic development in the past period, was not able to find out the clearance of described strength, weakness, oppoturnities and challenges and it was seeming that the review work has been done by an administrative decision! 11 The key economic zones of south region in the reviwed-adjusted-ammended plan were mentioned as a component. However, it has not fully reflected the inter-regional characteristics of Mekong Delta because increaser or decrease of economic growth rate of the key economic zones will seriously affect this region. c. Development of common issues Analysis and assessment of main products whose production relates to utilization of land and water resources at local level in development plan for Mekong Delta and in planning orientation, showed that production of these products till follows old direction, there existed little changes in development degree but it lacks deep analysis if to judge it with a point of view on land and water resources. However, it should share difficulties with the author group because (a) classification of current sectors is agriculture – industry – construction and service, but the previous classification was agriculture – industry – service and construction; current land classification is agriculture, non-agriculture and unused land, but the previous one was of 5 categories as agriculture, forestland, special use land, residential land, and unused land; (b) assessment of land and water resources is quite complicated when considering inter-regional characteristics. Analysis and assessment of sectors were not persuadable because the its contents are too detailed while it neeeds more generalized, comprehensive and logical assessments. It needs to assess the resources, potential, unexpected changes, point of view, objective, indicators and orientations for sectors development, for spatial development planning and implementation sollutions. Additional conatraints are that industry zones and urban areas were planned, but they were very slowly implemented, and were not able to create a economic growth pole. Especially, the reviewed plan was not able to reflect specific issues, key advantages, potential of export agriculture goods which is an advantage of Vietnam under the context of intergration and open policy for sustainable socio-economic development. d. Appraisal Appraial or scientific assessement of the development plans in general, of the regional master socio-economic development plans, of government research programmes and projects in particular are formalistic. The reasons behind this are not clear, but maybe it is because of low payment for the appraisal or scientific assessement or of other unclear reasons, although the scientific value of this important work is too high. It needs a lot of changes in steering point of view, payment for appraisal work and formation of appraisal committee membership. II. Impact of international and national context on regional development planning for Mekong Delta 12 2.1. Unclear recognition of international context Financial crisis and moreover, economic crisis are taking place seriously day by day in spite of developed countries have provided large financial aid. The crisis has been happening in short time with dominos effect, damages at a large scale and high level of complexity which all lead to reduction of economic growth of 2008 compared with one of 2007. On the other hand, acorrding to the prediction of IMF and WB, or of many other international organizations and of these countries, economic growth of developed countries in coming years is till gloomy and that will give negative affect in mid-term for the world as the whole. Analysis and assessement revealed that predicted indicators such as GDP per capita, economic growth, economic structure or bankcrupcy of the large corporations or groups for the near future are dificult to be precise. In the past, prior to issuance of open policies, the external impact to Vietnam economic was not very serious, but today, it is very significant. Export goods of Vietnam mainly are of agriculture comodities and majority amount of which is produced in Mekong Delta, since Mekong Delta is not able to avoid that negative impact. 2.2. Unclear recognition of national context Vietnam is strongly and comprehensively suffering economic crisis. Inflation increases, excess of import over export increases and growth decreases and it is the first time, Vietnam was not able to achieve the porverty reduction goal of 2008. Fluctuation of financial market and exchange rate between VND and USD is very complex. Real estate and stock exchange in 2008 and 2009 were frequently changed. Electrict power was predicted to be insufficient for long term and small bisiness companies will be facing with a lot of challenges which may lead to bankrupcy while losing a lot of jobs oppoturnities. State companies are ineffectively operating because state companies have been using about 40% of the total national economic value and moreover, competitive capacity of Vietnamese goods and services is very weak. Currently, production is rapidly declining, unemployment increases and export of strategic goods of Vietnam decreases including agriculture products. Oil price is down, and price of rice, coffee, fish and shrimp is extraordinarily fluctuating in the present situation. Socio-economic infrastructure of Vietnam which suffer many “bottle next“ in cities and because of which export comodities are getting blocked inside the cities and are difficult to be transported into the habours and airports. All these factors make serious negative impact on socio-economic development of country and of Mekong Delta in the future. 2.3. Limited understanding of this region 2.3.1. Inherent issues of this region 13 Inherent issues for socio-economic development planning are: - Weak competitive capacity in economic development because growth is progressing horizontally with a low productivity, low investment effectiveness, backward economic structure and is not considering market as a centred goal. - Transportation, social and urban infrastructure is insufficient, heterogenous, inappropriate, patchy, fragmentary with low quality because it lacks highways, transitional habors and airports. - It is poor region with a high porverty rate with unsuitable utilization of land and water resources, too low literatcy; The region lacks high quality labour, even in the key sectors of the region. - Natural disasters occur with high frequency, especially in upper waterhsed areas. Epidemic affects people’s life and business development in Mekong Delta, but these constraints were not fully recognized. USD/person i 800 700 672.2 600 600.2 500 533.2 479.4 400 432.2 300 200 100 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Figure 1: GDP per capita in Mekong Delta in the period 2004 - 2008 2.3.2. Difficulties in development planning itshelfe in Mekong Delta Develpment planning in generel, and regional socio-economic development planning in particular, in in which analysis, assessment and prediction are most difficult work, depending on several factors and currently it is under the status of non-professionalism. Justification for the reviewed-adjusted-amended regional master socio-economic development planning is not persuadable because key issues were not fully discussed. Inter-regional characteristics such as land and water resources, sea transportation, aquaculture resources, forest resources were not well studied in terms of inter-regional relation and under the 14 context of development of key economic zones and the context of the country as well as of the world. 2.3.3. Occurence of new difficulties in this region Glabal economic crisis plus internal complexity and difficulties in the country with serious disasters, epidemics that all made heavy damage to land and water resources and hamper sustainbale agriculture production. Export value of strategic goods in Mekong Delta is declining and it is expected to decrease at a higher rate for the year 2009 and two years later due to shrinkage of main consumtion markets of Vietnam in general and of the region in particular. III. Analysis and assessment of land and water resources in Mekong Delta under the context of Vietnam intergration into global economics 3.1. Concepts on sustainable development of land and water resources 3.1.1. Definition of sustainable development The agreement on sustainable development has been signed by the Heads of state of the countries sponsored by UNDP. The term of sustainability was appeared in senventies of the XX century. In 1987, the World Council of Envirenement and Development (WCED) of UNDP has defined in the "Report on our future" that "sustainable development is development that is able to meet the needs of present generation but not to reduce prospects for future generation''. The World Summit on Envirenemnt and Development held in Rio de Janeiro (Braxin) in 1992 and the World Summit on Sustainable Develeopment held in Johannesburg (South Africa) in 2002 had defined that sustainable development is a development that closely and appropriately links with three aspects of development such as development of economics (economic growth), social development (social progress, social equity, poverty reduction, job oppoturnities), and envirenement protection ( mitigation of polution, restore and improve envirenment, prevention of forest fires, appropriate use of natural resources...). The criteria for judgement of sustainable development is stable economic growth; social equity and progress; appropriate utilization of natural resources; improved quality of life. Main contents of agreement on sustainable development are as follows: 15 + Status of common development, emerging issues in unsustainable development on the earth; common perception in development of society and of human being in relation with resources use; + Objective, concepts, principles and activities prioritied for sustainable development. Aspects of economics, sociology, utilization of resources and protection of eco-envirenment. 3.1.2. Sustainable development of land and water resources a. Sustainable development of water resource: for sustainable development of water resource. first of all, it is necessary to consider three common aspects as UN mentioned which include economics, sociology and envirenment. But moreover, for sustainable development of water resource, it needs to consider additional aspescts like water security, water balance, water envirenement and water quality; b. Sustainable development of land resource: for sustainable development of land rewsource. first of all, it is necessary to consider three common aspects as UN mentioned which include economics, sociology and envirenment. But moreover, for sustainable development of land resource, it needs to consider additional aspescts like ecosystem, soil productivity, soil envirenement, land dagredation and land security; Thus, analysis and assessment and recommendations in utilization of land and water resources need to considered under the context of sustainable development with specific characteristics of these resources. 3.1. Analysis and assessment of water resource 3.1.1. The current status of water resources in Mekong Delta Water resource in Mekong Delta encompasses of surface water, underground water. Water surface includes water coming from watershes areas, sea water and rain water. Quantitatively, water supply source for lower Mekong basin is mainly from rain and raising of sea water (accounts for 76%), plus water coming from upper basin (China, Myanma) which accounts for 24%. Monthly water distribution for flat plain can be seen in the Table 2.1. Except water of Mekong river, in Mekong Delta rain water and undergorund water are also important for use, especially for drinking. Annually, in rainy season, Mekong Delta receives an average rainfall of about 1,300 – 2,300 mm, of which 90% of rainfall drops concentratedly in rainy season, from May to November. In the months of dry season, rainfall is of minority. 16 Figure 1. Distibution of rainfall in Mekong Delta Undergorund water in Mekong Delta has four layers which have high value for utilization that include: layers contain water QII-III, Q1 and complexs contain water N2, N13. Water yield underground is able to supply about 60 million cubic meters of water per day of which water with mineral content of less than 1 g/l is of 27.5 million cubic meters. Water exploitation capacity from underground in all areas of Mekong Delta is as follow: 17 Figure 2. Map showing water exploitation capacity from underground in all areas of Mekong Delta 3.1.2. Water utilization status in Mekong Delta a. Water demand According to estimated result, total water demand in dry season for whole Mekong Delta for today and for up to the year 2010 is of about 800-1,500 cubic meters per second. January is the month of the highest water demand, and Appril is the lowest one. Agriculture and aquaculture are sectors of the highest water demand (accounts for 80-85% of the total water demand). In a year, 18 the time from March to June is a period of water scarceness. In this period, water demand is not the highest, but water in Tien and Hau rivers is of the lowest level. b. Water supply Water supply capacity depends not only on water sources but also on irrigation development plan or projects. At present, water is supplied for production in Mekong Delta comes from Mekong river, Vam Co Dong river, and underground water. However, in dry season, rain water and underground water are limited, so surface water is considered as a main water source for supply. According to the water resource plans of Mekong Delta, irrigated areas by Vam Co Dong river are eastern side of Vam Co Dong river and Duc Hue area while water from Dau Tieng lake supplies for Bo Bo areas (water for Dau Tieng lake is supplemented from Phuoc Hoa). Water supply capacity for Mekong Delta up to 2010 is as follow: Table 2.2: Water supply capacity for Mekong Delta up to 2010 (m3/s) Items I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII MK+VCD 1512 1159 864 1133 947 762 699 448 312 219 540 1138 MK 1446 1108 844 1089 897 722 670 433 307 215 534 1104 Note: MK: Mekong river water source; VCD: Vam Co Dong water source c. Current status of irrigation works Irrigation system in Mekong Delta is a comprehensive irrigation system which includes water irrigation and drainage, water supply, water ways…Up to 2007, the status of irrigation system in Mekong Delta is as follows: Main canals and irrigation canals of level I have total length of 12,000 km, average distance between irrigation canals is of 4-5 km with average length of a canal is of 20-50 km; width of a canal bottom is 8-10 m; depth of a canal is of 2-4 m. Main canals and irrigation canals of level I normally are connected to main rivers and supply water for about 100-200 km2. Irrigation canals of level II are connected to the main canals and irrigation canals of level I. Irrigation canals of level II normally irrigate for an area of about 8-10 km2. Average distance between irrigation canals of level II is about 2-3 km; the length of a canal is 4-5 km; canal bottom width is 6-8 m; depth is 2 m; irrigated area of one canal of level II is 8-12 km2; Total length of all irrigation canals of level II is of about 37,000 km. 19 Coastal dike system and dike at river mouth are basically constructed, with a total length of about 7,500 km (of which 450 km is length of coastal dike). This system has been contributing in control of salinization and protecting people and their properties as well as production in Mekong Delta. Dike system for flood control lengtherns about 40 km which protects residential areas (such as Tan Hong, Vinh Hung, Tan Hung and Hong Ngu which all are the towns of frequent floods). About 24,000 km of embankments along canal systems of the main canals and irrigation canals of level I and 70,000 km of embankments along irrigation canals of level II. Somewhere on the embankments of the main canals, people reside and establish residential areas. Drain system in Mekong Delta has been serving for control of floods and salinization. Mekong Delta has some areas of about 1.4-1.6 million ha affected by salinization at a rate of 4g/l which is sufficient to make negative affect to plants. In the past 2 decades, in order to control salinization in Mekong Delta, nearly 300 drains with 3 meter dismeter have been constructed and moreover, a thousand small drains also have been built for production support. For development of irrigation, in earlier of eighties of the last century, hundreds of large and medium size water pump stations have been established in Mekong Delta. However, these pumping stations have not been operating effectively as expected and many of them were dismounted and only about 20% of them are remained active. Currently, flood control is being done by household small pumps and 20% of large pumping stations remained as mentioned. Role of irrigation work for rural water supply is to create water sources which encompass of systems of canals and lakes. Lake system in Mekong Delta is not developed and currently there are only four reservoirs in Bay Nui area of An Giang province. Water supply capacity of these reserviors is sufficient for 12,000 persons living in the area which acounts for 65% population of rural area. d. Effecttiveness of irrigation system * Irrigation effectiveness: Irrigation system in Mekong Delta is till weak, but basically it can meet water demand of local agriculture and aquaculture production. Particularly, it supplies water for 2 million ha of annual agriculture land of which 360,000 ha of three-crop per year, 1.3 million ha of two-crop per year and 600,000 ha of aquaculture raising. * Effectiveness in flood control: Currently, irrigation system is able to ensure sufficient water for two crops production in deep water areas, three crops in shallow water areas and for 300,000 ha of orchard. Irrigation system also created a thousand residential areas living safely there with infrastructure base which ensures smoothly travelling for local people in flooded seasons and all year around. 20 * Effectiveness in improvement of alkaline soil. In Mekong Delta there is about 1.6 million of alkaline soil (accounts for 41%) of which 886,000 ha is of pure alkaline soil and 658,000 ha of salinized alkaline soil. After two decades of use and improvement (irrigation solutions were considered as the most impoprtant ones), majority part of alkaline soil in Dong Thap Muoi and Long Xuyen quadrangular was converted into stable agriculture land where two and three crops per yare can be applied. Today, it remains about 150,000 ha of alkaline soil where alkaline is till active and which is not suitable for agriculture but is suitable for Melalueca planting and some of it is waste land. * Effectiveness in salinization control; In Mekong Delta there are about 790,000 ha of salty soil (accounts for 20%) of total 2 million ha of salinized soil which is distributed along coastal shore and in Ca Mau penisular, of which soil affected by salinization less than two months is of 100,000 ha (it is already used for agriculture), soil affected by salinization from 2 to 4 months is of 520,000 ha (88% of which is used for agriculture, 9% for afforestation and 3% of waste land) and soil affected by salinization all year around is of 170,000 (of which 34% is used for afforestation, 25% for shrimp raising and 36% of waste land). To date, in some areas of Ben Tre, Kien Giang provinces, salinization control is not completely established yet. Rapid conversion of agriculture land into aquaculture use in some areas of Bac Lieu and Soc Trang provinces has created many “mosaicâ€? land mixed between salty and fresh water which hampers functions of irrigation network and production development. However, basically irrigation network is able to effectively control salinization and ensure agriculture production. 3.1.3. Constraints, challenges in management and use of water resource in Mekong Delta a. Constraints of irrigation work In general, through past three decades, after complete liberation of the south Vietnam, irrigation work has significantly contributed in development of regional economics, especially in sectors of agriculture, aquaculture, and stabilized inhabitants’ life. It should be confirmed that irrigation has contributed in helping Vietnam’s turn from a food import country in seventies and eighties of the past century to the second biggest food export country of the world and most of export goods are produced in Mekong Delta. Beside of very large achievements made, a lot constraints which need to be overcome are systems of the main canals, canals of levels I and II. These canals systems are quite sufficient in quantity and density, but due to shortage of annual budget for maintance, eroded soil/sand was 21 accumulated onto bottom of canals that reduces the capacity of water recharge and water drainage in aquaculture areas. Construction of irrigation network is spreading but scattered and incomprehensive and lacks the “keyâ€? projects. Since, many irrigation projects were not able to bring themselves into full play nor satisfy production requirement. The previous irrigation projects mainly served for agriculture production purpose, then when movement of land use conversion heavily took place, irrigation network was not able to play the role of separation between salinized and fresh water for purposes of agriculture and aquaculture; Flood problems were not completely solved, especially in Dong Thap Muoi. The coastal zones and the areas far from large rivers were not able to have self-supply of water, especially in warm and dry years with the deep salinization. Almost large water pumping networks previously established are currently inactivated, and of low operation effectiveness (about 20% of full output capacity). Presently, local people have to use household sefl-established small pumping facilities which makes increaser of production cost. Planning and designing of the previous irrigation network have taken criteria to control flood level of 1961, but in fact in 2000, the flood level was too high and much higher and more complicated than that of 1961, water amount coming from national boundary was too high and then, almost irrigation facilities have been sufferring their over carying capacity or are of low operation effectiveness. Coastal dike network is incompleted. Western coastal drainage network, for control of salinization and flood, with small diameters has been reducing their capacity in controlling salinization, tide, and flood. Due to weak coordination between sectors, some irrigation facilities are of low effectiveness (it lacks close coordination with transportation setor in construction of canals, drainages, and bridges). It also lacks operation regulation for irrigation network and lacks coorperation and coordination of authorities of provinces in production management (such is coordination between provinces of An Giang - Kien Giang; Soc Trang - Bac Lieu …). Construction work of the previous drainages normally applied quite old technology, especially the use of low-tech based inlet and exhaust valves with one water way rule which lowers their operation effectiveness. Irrigation network was not maintained regularly, and then the network was rapidly downgraded. On the most of arable land, interior filed irrigation network is underdeveloped. Existing irrigation facilities require a lot of fund for compensation and clearance. This budget normally is taken from local authorities but that financial burden usually goes beyond their capacilty. Since clearance of construction sites is of most difficulties which were leading to slow construction progress, and even, many projects were not implemented. 22 b. Chanllenges in management of water resources Mekong Delta situates at the ending part of Mekong basin, its area acounts for 4.8% of the whole basin (China, Myanmar, Lao, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam) and for about 6% of lower Mekong basin (Lao, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam), its two sides are adjacent with sea shores with a coastal length of 700 km. Thöôïng löu vöïc soâng Meâ Coâng (Upper Mekong Basin - UMB) 185,000 km2 (23%) Trung Quoác (Vaân Nam), Myanmar 20% toÃ¥ng löôïng doøng chaûy Haï löu vöïc soân g Meâ Coân g (Lower Mekong Basin- LMB) 625,000 km 2 (77% ) Cam Pu Chia Laøo Thaùi Lan Vuøng Vieät Nam ÑBSCL N G BAÈ ÑOÀ NG N G CÖÛ SO U LONG Dieä u ha. n tích: 3,957 trieä n soá Daâ n 18 trieä : gaà u ngöôøi. Figure 3. Mekong Delta in Mekong basin Due to characteristic of geographical possition, water sources in Mekong Delta will suffer an impact and effect of natural factors and of social development activities. These effects and impacts are summarized in the below figure: Water flow; Economic activities in upper basin Regulation of shallow Rain on basin lake Interior activities in Mekong Delta Flood and waterlogging Drought and salinization Alkaline soil Eroion/sedimentation High tide, storms, sea level raise Figure 4. Summary of impact on water sources in Mekong Delta 23 * Challenges in natural condition Almost fresh water in Mekong Delta come from Mekong river and major amount of which is rain water in lower basin of Mekong river. Water amount from melted ice in upper basin is not significant. Thus, main water source for Mekong river mainly depends on rainfall in the countries in lower basin like Laos, Thailand, Cambodia. Depending on rainfall, water regime is clearly separated into two diffenrent seasons (1) flood season from June to November whose water amount accounts for 85-90% of total annual water yield with the highest water level in August and September; and (2) dry season lasting from December to May whose water ammount accounts for 10-15% and the lowest water level is in March and Appril. Forest plays an extremely important role in regulating water flow and water recharge from rain. However, in the past three decades, forests in the lower basin of Mekong river have been seriously declined. In 1970, forest cover in Mekong lower basin was till 50%, but in 2000, it remained only 27% (annually Thailand loses about 320,000 ha of forest; Lao loses 125,000 ha; Cambodia loses 3%; current forest cover in Mekong Delta is just 7.1%). High rate of deforestation is leading to higher seriousness of floods in rainy season as well as droughts in dry season. Tong Le Sap lake in Cambodia plays very important role in regulating natural water flow. In earlier flood season in the late of May and earlier of June, a large water amount of Mekong (about 60 Billion m3) from upper basin is stored in Tong Le Sap lake, then in the late of December and earlier October, this water is regulated by flowing down into Mekong river (about 80 billion m3) and further to Vietnam as supplementary water amount in dry season. Since, any change in topological condition such as sedimentation, pollution…in Tong Le Sap lake make direct impact on water supply in Mekogn delta. Water supply for Mekong Delta mainly depends on water from outside of the national territory that is very significant challenges in utilization, management and development of water resource in Mekong Delta. Floods occur annually in Mekong Delta and somehow it is under control, but it till makes significant impact on production development in flooded areas of 1.4 – 1.9 million ha and hampers improvement of spiritual and materialized conditions of 5 million persons living in the region. Chanllengs appear not only in mitigation of flood impact, but also in how to maximize the possitive effect of flood occurrence? From the past to date, Mekong Delta is always considered as having abundant supply of water all the year around. However currently, production in Mekong basin in general and in Mekong Delta 24 in particular is rapidly developing, water demand increases, then in coastal areas and in the areas far from main river and where infrastructure is underdeveloping, droughts till frequently occur in dry season (even “Ba Changâ€? - extremely serious droughts occur). Salinization is also a challenge in utilization, management of water resource in Mekong Delta. Salinization makes nagative affect not only on agriculture production, food security, but also on ecological envirenment as well as on water supply for drinking purpose. Salinization map (4 grammes per liter) below is clearly showing status of salinization in Mekong Delta in 2009. Figure 5. Salinization map (4 grammes per liter) in Mekong Delta, 2009 Management of water resource is not separated from management of “problematic landâ€?. In Mekong Delta there are about 0.7 – 0.8 million ha of salty land and 1.4-1.6 million ha of alkaline soil. In order to use this land, it needs a huge amount of water and strict management regume. Alkaline areas is the places where alum is produced (especially in earlier rainy season) and that pollutes water and makes nagative affect on water utilization, envirenment and ecological systems in water gathering areas. 25 Irrigation networks in Mekong Delta mainly encompass of canals networks, river embankments of all levels which suffer land slides, wash-off and sedimentation in canals and river bottom during flood season. Sedimentation, wash-off and land slides, beside damaging people’s life and their properties and losing arable land, reduce water regulating capacity of these irrigation networks. * Challenges in development activities in the countires of upper Mekong basin - Construction of hydropowerplants: In China, the strategy of construction hydropowerplants in the Lan Thuong (Me Kong river) of Yunnan was formulated in seventies of the past century. Planning for hieracrchy hydropowerplants in Lancang river basin was initiated in eighties of the past century, with 25 hieracrches on the main river with an expected total power capacily of 25,870 MW and 120 hydropower stations on tributary rivers with a total power capacity of 2,600 MW. At present, there are 8 hydropower projects on Mekong river which include: Gongguaqio dam with 105 m high and according to the plan, water will be stored in June 2011. Xiaowan dam with 292 m hight, 4,200 MW which will operate in Oct 2009. This is the second biggest hydropower project after gigantic Tam Hiep dam on Yangtse Kiang river. Lower than that is Man Wan dam with 132 m hight, wtaer storage capacity of 920 million cubic metres, power capacity 1,500 MW and construction completed in 1993. Dachaoshan dam with 118 m hight, water storag capacity 940 million cubic metres, power capacity 1,350 MW and construction completed in 2003. The next one is Jinghong dam with 108 m hight, power capacity 1,500 MW and construction completed in 2009. There are three other dams currently under construction which include Nouzhadu, Cam Lam and Manh Tong dams in lower Mekong basin. Lao PDR has planned to build 23 hydropower dams, of which the Ban Koun dam is the biggest one with capacity of 2,000 MW. Thailand, except two Sakamen 1 and 3, has planned to construct dams on Mekong river with capacity of 4,000MW. Cambodia also studies two dams namely Sambor and Stung Treng with capacity of 3,600 MW. Not to say now about economic benefit, lose of land and forest, emigration, clearance, and loses of income, it is herewith to discuss something about water resources: Theoretically, construction of hydropowerplants will regulate water flow: reduce crest of floods and total flood water; provide supplementary water for exhausted water regime, however in reality, due to the focus on partial economic benefit, electronic companies are implemeting lake management operation in the ways of the highest economic benefit and consequency, water level in exhausted water regime significantly decreases. Red river is a very good example of decrease of water flow in exhausted water regime. In the past, bottom of the Red river has never been dried up like it is in the recentl years although there are hydropowerplants like Thac Ba, Hoa Binh. Along Mekong river, when China finished Manwan 1,500 MW and Dachaoshan 1,350 MW and builds Xiaowan 4,200 MW, and Jinghong 1,350 MW under the project “14 Dams in 26 Yunnanâ€? will have made water level of Mekong river ever lowest in dry season in Laos and Thailand. In Laos, in march 2004, tourist companies have cancelled tens boating programmes on rivers because water level there was too low. In Thailand, Odd Bootha, 38 years old, a boatman at Chiang Khong port, north Thailand has lamented that “if China continues to build more dams, Mekong river will become a small canal!â€? Judging on China’s exploitation plans on Mekong river, Tyson Roberts, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute said “ Construction of hydropower dams, clearance of waterways with overloaded ships all will kill the river. Exploitation actions of China will decline ecosystem, pollution of water and gradually kill Mekong river similarly as the things happened to Yangtse Kiang river and other large rivers of Chinaâ€?. Figure 6. Exploitaion schemes under 14-Dams programmes along Mekong river in Yunnan, China. - Development of irrigated areas in upper watershed countries: According to some reviewed documents, irrigated areas in the Mekong lower basin countries are as follows: Table 2.3: Irrigated areas in Mekong river Countries Unirrigated areas Irrigated areas Laos 2532 224232 Thailand 8746 941425 Cambodia 1012 392117 Mekong Delta 27 85 1683094 High Plataux 76 36008 Total 12.469 3.276.876 In the future when Thailand enlarges irrigated areas in the north-east side (estimated about more than 1 million ha) and Cambodia (about 2 million ha), water demand in exhausted dry season will raise up to 600 - 900 cubic meters per second. This is serious challenges in utilization and mamagement and protection of water in Mekong Delta. * Challenges in socio-economic development activities in Mekong Delta At present and in the future, Mekong Delta has been suffering not only challenges from upper waterhsed areas, but also facing with challenges in development activities in the region which are as follows: * Development of three rice crops per year: three rice crops per year is not encouraged, but it is widely developing in Mekong Delta. According to the statistic of provinces in 2007, total area of three rice crops in Mekong Delta was 400,000 ha. Development of three rice crops per year contributes in increaser of rice yield and income for people, but soil become unfertilized and diseases occurred and water management is challenging. Expansion of three rice crops per year needs higher water amount, less water output for salinization control, and in consequency, salinilized areas are enlarged too. Development of three rice crops per years needs more chemical facilities such as chemical fertilizer, pesticides, herbicides… which all are pollutting all water sources (according to some researches, only about 30% of chemical facilities are obsorbed by vegetation while remained 60% are gone into the soil and water and surrounding envirenment). These chemical facilities contain many elements with extreme poisons which can be existing very long time and hampering human health and aquatic bioligical elements. Beside of this, enlargement of three rice crops per year has been creating conflics in water utilization in dry season between localities which are difficult tasks for management work. Exploitation of “problematic soilâ€?: In Mekong Delta there are 1.5 million ha of alkaline soil and utilization of this land requires a lot of water for washing off alum before use. Water used in washing off alum (especially in earlier of rainy season) will flow into cannals network and spread out alum to nearby areas, making negative impact on water users in the region and adjacent areas. Pollution of water: to date, all waste water in rural areas of Mekong Delta is untreated or treated without care. In urban areas and industry zones the water treatment is not better. Since Mekong River and its canal network seem to receive all polluted waste water with an alarming rate. Waste 28 water from agriculture and aquaculture production and most of waste water and solid waste all together come into Mekong river and canal networks in Mekong Delta. Climate change (CC) and first of all, global warming and sea level raise are most serious challenges for human being in 21 century. Natural disasters and extreme climate phenomenon are increasing in all regions of the world; Global average temperature and sea level raise continuously increase with a level higher than ever before. Climate change makes serious impact on production, human life and environment worldwide: to 2080 yields of cereals can decrease 2- 4%, it price will increase 13-15%, rate of people affected by poverty accounts for 36-50%. Sea level raise creates flood, salinization of water, negative impact on agriculture production and risks for industry and socio-economic systems in future. Infrastucture degsigned and built under current standard will be difficult to survive and ensure good srvices for future. In Vietnam for the past 50 years, annual average temprature increased about 0.7oC, sea level raised 0.2 m. More and more El-Nino and La- Nina phenomenon makes more serious impact on 29 Vietnam. Under climate change, natural disaster, especially storms and floods and droughts are more and more furious. According to an estimation, average temprature would increase 3 degrees and sea level would raise 1 m higher in 2100. If sea level raised 1 m, about 40,000 km2 of plain in coastal zones in Vietnam will be fllooded annually and of which 90% area in Mekong Delta is completely flooded [MARD, 2003]. According to an assessment of Worldbank 2007, Vietnam is one of the most serious affected five countires by sea level raise and Mekong and Red river deltas are most impacted. If sea level raise of 1 m it makes about 10% population directly affected with lose of 10% GDP. If sea level raise 3 m it makes 25% population directly affected and lose of 25% of GDP. Impact by climate change on Vietnam is serious and challenging in poverty reduction, in achievement of mellennium goal and in sustainable development of the whole country. Vulnerable and seriously impacted sectors are irrigation, agriculture, food security and human health in plain areas and coastal areas. 3.1.2. Prediction of potentail impact of climate change on fields in this region (1) Impact of climate change like natural disaster and epidemic deseases: that is to increase frequency, intensity, dynamic and extremism of dangerous weather phenomenon like storms, whirlwind, flood, inundation, salinization, drought, damaging coldness, human and animal and poultry and plant deseases. (2) Impact of climate change on water resources: rain regime change may lead to heavy flood in rainy season and drought in dry season; make difficulties in water supply; create conflics in water utilization; affect growth and productivity of plants; spread of deseases throughout between plants, crops, animals and poultries; narrow agriculture arable land. (3) Impact of climate change on forests: affects coastal ecosystem in Mekong Delta due to shrinkage of mangrove; makes nagative impact on Melalueca forest and forest planted on alkaline soil; Increase temprature and dryness; makes higher risks for forest fire and spread of deseases and epidemics…Impact of climate change on aquaculture is that salinization encroaches deeper into inland and narrows suitable habitats for fresh aquatic species. Shrinkage of existing mangrove makes impact on habitats for aquatic species. High rainfall and its intensity reduce salt contents in the water and sometime that kill creature and mollusca (oyster, arca…) living in brackish water at river mouth and in coastal zones because they can not survive with a rapid change of salt contents in the water. (4) Impact of climate change on transportation network: increase high risk of flood in important transportation networks, of land slide, wash-off of road surface and sedimentation in water ways. Impact of climate change on industry and construction is to face with flood and waterlogging in 30 big cities like Can Tho, My Tho, Ca Mau, Rach Gia and in treatment of waste water in industry zones. (5) Impact of climate change on human health: increase of tempratrue; makes nagative impact on human health which increase higher risk for people of old-age and of heart and nervous deseases; It also increases higher potential for malaria, dengue fever and spread other infectious deseases out; increase human death by disasters; increase poverty from loosing of income, loses of houses; Vulnerable people are poor farmers, ethnic minority living in remote areas, people of old age and children and women. 3.1.3. Preliminary survey on climate change and sea level raise * Sea level raise: Assessment of impact of climate change on sea level raise in Mekong Delta focused on two factors: salinization and flood which are predicted with two scenarios as follows: scenario of sea level raise of 0.69 m [IPPC] and scenario of sea level rasie of 1 m [WB]. Data collected in 2004 is used as baseline indicators for exhausted low water level; and data collected in 2000 is used as baseline data for flooded water level. Calculation also considers construction of dams in upper waterhsed areas (Table 2.4) * Impact of climate change on water resources : Change of rain regime creates floods in rainy season and droughts in dry seasons, reduces water supply capacity, and increases conflics in water use. * Impact of climate change on agriculture and food security: major parts of agriculture land situate in lower areas along coastal zones will be salinized due to sea level raise if there is not applicatiopn of appropriate adaptation measures. Climate change makes impact on Vietnam at many levels, since it is necessary to prepare immediate measures for adaptation with climate change. World Summit on sustainbale development 2002 in Johannesburg has recognized that climate change will directly make impact on human being, water resource, energy, human health, agriculture, food security, and biodiversitty. Sea level raise is a gradual process and if no actions for adaptation with climate change at global scale is applied then, sea level raise will be more serious (below figure) 31 Impact of sea level raise is different scales for sub-areas. Impact of climate change and sea level raise on socio-economic development in Mekogn Delta is summarized as below : - Weather change: rainfall increases in rainy season and decreases in dry season whlie heavier tropical storms occur. Track of storms will shift gradually to southern latitude and typhoon season will be lasting longer. Change of boundaries between salty water and brackish water and fresh water makes impact on traditional cropping systems, infrastructure, and socio-economic condition of people. If sea level rises in 0.69 m, salinized area with salt contents of 4 grammes per liter in Mekong Delta will increase 45% (equivalent to 48% of total gross area). If sea level rises 1 m, salinized area will increase 51% (equivalent to 58% of total gross area). Rice productivity will decrease 9%. All-year around fresh water sub-area is most seriously impacted due to salinization, upseting production system; Yield of food, fruit and aquaculture will be down. The role of national rice production center and of important contribution in total national export turn-over, and of national food security, Mekong Delat currently plays will be serious challenging. Some traditional economic setors are under threats. Sea level raise will increase flood and waterlogging in waterlogged areas along coastal zones. According to an estimation, if sea level rises 0.69 m, 91% of area of Mekong delta will be flooded; and if sea level rises 1 m, 32 93% area of Mekong Delta will be flooded. Flood period will also be 1-2 months longer. Nevertheness, flood control system, arrangement of people’s inhabitation and infrastructure in flooded and coastal areas are needed to be adjusted at a large scale and cropsing systems are also more difficult to be rearranged. Technical infrastructure will be damaged or impacted while upgrading or new construction of infrastucture require a lot of budget. Movement and redistribution of inhabitants will take place internally in the cities, economic centers or people just moving out of Mekong Delta. Life of tens million people will be upseting. Envirenment will be changing, salinization will be larger and people will suffer the serious shortage of fresh water. Land slide and soil erosion along coastal zones and river mouths will take place at heavier degree. National security has to be adapted and consistent with the new situations. According to the world experiences, there are three ways of fighting against sea leve raise: protect and adapt and withdrawal to the back. In order to fight against sea level raise proactively and effectively and consistently with Vietnam condition, first of all, it needs to carry out deep researches with quantitative indicators that to identify boundaries of sub-areas impacted by sea level raise with different scenarios. Simulate impact on nature and socio-economics with comprehensive analysis of impact of sea level raise that to identify appropriate solutions. For irrigation work, it is necessary to replan, calculate, adjust, amend with new parameters followed hydrological zoning and propose immidiate and long term structural and non-structural solutions. The above assessments are just relied only on IPPC and WB and premilinary estimation of the South Water Resource Planning Institute. However, the lastest information on climate change and sea level raise revealed that sea level raise seems to take place faster than the previous prediction! Sea level raise is existing and unavoidable since, “intensionâ€? of adaptation against impact of sea level raise now is of most necessariness. Chart 2: Process of assessing impact of sea level raise and climate change Assessment Assessment Assessment of loses of of adaptation vulnerability capacity Identification of Problems and Priorities Training is considered as a main component Step 1: Scenario Training on Training on Training on programme Training on assessment climate change adaptation formulation agriculture Planning is considered as a main component Step 2: Planning Safe Comprehensive 33 Safe production rural planning Development Planning Planning 3.2. Analysis and assessment of land resources under the context of Vietnam intergaration into global economics 3.2.1. Qualitative and quantitative changes of land resources in the past a. Quantitative change of land resource Change of land use is one of the research topics in Mekong Delta. Land use change directly and indirectly reflects socio-economic development in this region. Table 2.5: land use change in 5 years from 2000 to 2005 Land use status Change Year 2000 Year 2005 2001 - 2005 Land categories Area Ratio Area Ratio Area Ratio (ha) (%) (ha) (%) (ha) (%) Natural gross area 3,971,232 100 4,058,047 100 86,815 I. Used land 3,844,512 96.81 4,005,905 98.72 161,393 1.91 1. Agriculture 3,315,866 83.50 3,444,331 84.88 128,465 1.38 2. Non-agriculture 528,646 13.31 561,574 13.84 32,928 0.53 II. Unused land 126,720 3.19 52,142 1.28 -74,578 -1.91 Source: National Center for Land Use Planning, Statistic Book 2006 Land use change in Mekong Delta in 5 years is as follow: Total gross area of Mekong Delta accounts for 12.3% of national gross area; average land use per capita is 0.23 ha which is lower than that for the whole country (0.38 ha); agriculture land per capita is 1,995 m2..; land use change is in active direction as agriculture and non-agriculture land increases while unsed land decreases. The reasons behind the active change is that irrigated agriculture areas were expanded because of progressive investment for irrigation network. In details, Agriculture land: during study period, agriculture land decreases while forestland increases (because of forest planting); aquaculture also increases quite rapidly (expansion of aquaculture production) and other types decrease; Non-agriculture land: in this period, residential land increases (development of urban, towns and inhabitation areas); special use land increases (development of infrastructure, industry zones,...); religious and spiritual land increases while other land use types are not much changed; Unused land: 5 years (study period), area of unused land continously decreases but in a rate lower than that in the previous period. Land was converted into agriculture, forest planation, aquaculture and urbanization, road network development. 34 * Key points in land use change: With longer vision and comprehensive point of view, the study team presents here a small research which explains land use change during the past 30 years in Mekong Delta: BOX number one Development of irrigation network and expansion of arable land After liberation, State and people have invested in development of irrigation networks thus, arable land in Mekong Delta was expanded. After a lot of attemps, land previously was grass, waste land, alkaline land, swampy land now converted into arable land area of which is up to 2 million ha. Result of survey in February 2009 proved the above judgement in Long Xuyen Quadrangular and Dong Thap Muoi where many scientists had affirmed that it was imppossible to improve soil fertility there, but now that land became a granary of the country! Factually, these two areas have 0.5 million ha of fertile arable land because of developed irrigation network and improved soil...At present, land in these areas became intensive arable land for production of agriculture, aquaculture and forestry products for export and the first important product is rice and then catfish and shrimps. In gerneral, from 2006 to now, land use change in Mekong Delta is quite similar with the change in the previous period, but it has some minor differences between two periods as follows: - Land for urbanization and expansion of rural residential area was more rapidly changing as in Can Tho because housing demand in there increased. - Land for development of industry, services and infrastructure increased because much land allocated for development of Ca Mau industry zones, for production of gas, electricity, and nitrogenous fetilizer and construction of national road nomber one, border gate... - Casual development of aquaculture land for rearing of shrimp or catfish is leading to unsaleable catfish while polluting envirenment, and it is now difficult to solve this problems. b. Qualitative change of land resource In Mekong Delta, qualitative change of land resource is as follows: Soil in this region is more fertile than soil in Red River Delta and soil in narow plain in central region because silt from Mekong River has raised the level of the field and utilization of land for production in Mekong Delta is later than that in Red River Delta. Due to construction of about 35 tens dams on Mekong River (China, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia) and climate change and many other negative factors (sea level raise) all made soil in Mekong Delta salinized and aluminous, especially in Ca Mau peninsula. Beside of this, unsuatainable utilization and management of land there made soil eroded, washed off, land slides occured; multi-crop per year and utilization of chemical fertilizer all made soil there degraded. Deeper analysis on land quality in Mekong Delta in relation with assessment of water reource in this region (see water quality section), the stuty team has drawn following assessments: Due to construction of dams in upper watershed, in dry season water flow significantly decreases and that lowers water level in this region. In such condition, soil is salinized and aluminous at a large scale that makes negative impact on socio-economic deevelopment, especially on agriculture production and people’s life (see annexes); Forest destrucion in upper watershed of Mekong River, exploitation of mineral, and deepening the river bottom together with releasing water from hydropower stations all create floods in rainy season in lower basin including Mekong Delta. Floods also made negative impact on socio-economic development, especially on aquaculture rearing, food production, and people’s life (see annexes); On the other hand, due to too complicated climate change in disadvantaged directions, and solid waste from production, human activities, deseases and epidemics occur more frequently and harmfully impact human health, growth of plant, crops and animals while pollute land envirenmenta and influence production devlopment, especially urban development, indstry zones. Table 2.6: The largest salinized area in exhausted water regime 2004 Unit: 1.000 ha Current Non-structured Structured status Salt contents Sea level raise 0,69 m Sea level raise 1,0 m Sea level raise 0,69 m Sea level raise 1,00 m (CS) (gramme per liter) Compared Compared Compared Compared Area Area Area Area Area to CS to CS to CS to CS 0< S≤4 2.558 1.962 -596 1.896 -662 2.369 -190 2.224 -334 S>4 1.303 1.899 596 1.965 662 1.493 190 1.637 334 3.2.2. Utilization and management of land in 5 years a. Planning status and result of implementation * Planning: Land use planning in Mekong Delta to the year 2010 has been approved by Prime Minister. Study this plan with the instructions on land use planning issued by MONRE revealed that the plan has followed technical instructions. Since, the land use plan for Mekong Delta is scentific-based and feasible for sectors, local authorities and people to implement. However, the deeper analysis showed that the too-detailed plan (showing industry zones, serveice zones, and sport zones...) perhaps are not appropriate. In market economic regime, it is not necessary to continue that planning ways. Moreover, urbanization and development of irrigation 36 and transportation networks need longer vision, more scientific and highly feassible and not for a short period just to the year 2010 like it is existing now. Regional interlinkage issues relating to land use in Mekong Delta have not been well studied by planners. These issues make very significant impact on sustainbale management of land resource there. Capacity of planners in general, and of land use planners in particular is limited. Their limitation is reflected in vision, logical thinking and in ustilization of toolkit. Technical experts are able to use technical tools but are not able to use tools of socio-economic sectors. Practically, short budget and many other reasons made collaboration in planning far away from requirement. * Result of plan implementation: Implementation of plans basically based on measures recommended in the land use plans to the year 2010. These issues are clearly reflected in land use change, particularly in agriculture land, non-agriculture land and unused land. 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Ä?ất tá»± Ä?ất chÆ°a Ä?ất NN Ä?ất phi NN nhiên SD 2005 4058 3444.33 561.57 52 2010 4058 3377.1 666.4 14.5 Chart 3: Comparison between land use plan and implementation of the land use plan to the year 2010 Comparison between plans and implementation of plans revealed that this is considerable result for implementation of land use plans for Mekong Delta to the year 2010 in spite of limited researches on land and development prediction. Comparison between plans and detailed implementation of plans to the year 2010 showed some constraints. Land use plans were made for regional level, but provincial plans were made only for 13 provinces, and only 60% of districts have land use plans to the year 2010 and much lesser for commune level. People rapidly expand aquaculture rearing and planting of other plant veriaty when the sale price is high, but when the price is down, they 37 destroy them because people and companies have no prediction capacity of comsuming markets and price of their products that made themselves economically lost and land use unsustainable. Forest area destroyed for aquaculture rearing is much larger than the areas planned for aquaculture purpose. This issues are explained by high economic benefit of rearing shrimp and crab and other aquatic species and such activities all destroyed ecosystems and created unsustainable land use. Land use planning for irrigation, urbanization, transportation, and sedentarization without strategical vision plus climate change, construction of dams in upper watershed areas all made floods and droughts more serious and challenging for land use but these constarints are not well studied and solved yet. Assessment of area planned for industry and services zones and practical observations in Mekong delta showed that this is a typical example of too-detailed “planning“ without scientific foundation which made land use plans unfeasible. 1000 ha 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2005 2010 Chart 4: Land use plans for industry developemnt b. Status of land allocation, confiscation and lease * Status of land allocation, confiscation and lease: - Total area land allocated and leased for users is 3,707,024 ha, accounts for 91.4% of area of the region. In particular, land for households is 3,178,240 ha, accounts for 85.7%; land for economic organizations is 215,961 ha, accounts for 5.8%; land for foreign and joint stock companies is 1,050 ha, accounts for 0.03%; Land under management of Commune People Commitees is 101,951 ha, accounts for 2.8%; land for other users is 208,796 ha, accounts for 5.6 %; land for Vietnamese foreigners is 0.21 ha; land for local comunities is 1,026, accounts for 0.03%. Thus, land allocation and lease account for large 38 percentages which is reflected just in statistic figure but not showed real effectiveness of land use. We think that land use planning needs to analyse and assess effectiveness of land use. Statistic showed that land not allocated and not leased for local use remain 300 thousand hectares, accounts for 9.6% of the region. Confiscated area of land up to the year 2005 was 2,926.6 ha, accounts for small % of gross area and for more 70% of allocated and leased land. Thus, confiscated land area accounts for a low ratio, but field surveys in An Giang and Kien Giang provinces revealed that the practical picture was not like this. This is proved by land encroached (individuals, companies occupied land of Forest Protection Management Board) or allocated but unused, but that land was not confiscated back. * Access of the poor to land: It is very sad situation that many poor households in Mekong Delta has no arable land at all. We think that this is very serious issues and difficult to be solved because land itself and custom of living and production habit of local people, especially of Khmer’s people. It is serious issues because land can not expand itself, and land is most important resource which plays the role both of tools and of production subject if judged it on philosophical, political and economical basics. These issues are difficult to be solved because land has high value, average land use in the region is lower than that of the whole country. It is difficult also because of the fact that Khmer people think that, rather doing casual labour is better than management or cultivation right on their land. Since, land was allocated to them, but they sold their land for other people and they do casual work again, that is repeating a vicious circle! At present, the Party, Government, National Assemble and Prime Minister Office mutually agreed to support the poor by land issues with Decree 147 by Prime Minister. The Decree clearly stated that to verify land and identify land for the poor and support them in land use with economic, technical assistance; the Decree also stipulated that the poor is not allowed to sell their land in 20 years time. BOX NUMBER TWO Observation of implementation of Decree 174 in Tra Vinh province Field survey in Tra Vinh province (where there is many Khmer people) in November 2008 showed that implementation of Decree 174 was not easy. It is difficult to change living habit of people, particularly of ethnic minority, and of the poor becasue they prefer doing casual work. It is not easy for authorities to find land for harmoning this purpose (even first to buy land and then allocate it) because land is already owned by users. Inequity in land use in Mekong Delta was existing for long time however, degree of 39 current inequity is lower than that in the past. c. Financial value received from land resource This is an important issue which is recently applied in land use planning at regional, provincial or local levels. However, this issue is not stipulated in the instruction issued by MONRE. The study revealed that financial sources from tax on land use in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh, Da Nang, Nha Trang, Hai Phong, Can Tho conrtibute a lot in the gross imcome of the localities. Thus, income from land use is significant compared with the other income sources of national budget. However, there are many constraints which make disadvantages for the poor and state while create benefit for high ranking people and companies. Tax on land use Income from real estate Other sources of income Chart 5: main sources of income for Long An province In Mekong Delta, income sources from land use is quite similar, but there is some adjustment in the practice. The biggest change is income from agriculture, especially from aquaculture is higher than that one in the other regions of the country. Main reason behinh the difference is that in Mekong Delta people raise high productive aquatic varieties such as shrimp, crab, catfish with the world-known branch names. In urban area, income from industry, services and infrastructure is not much different compared with common level. d. Lack of transparency plus incomplete mechanism, policies on land management and utilization Lack of transparency, and of logics plus incomplete mechanism and policies are loophole for wasting money and embezzlement of state land in Mekong Delta. In this situation, the poor suffers disadvatages most. In similarity with many other issues happening in Vietnam, we did not solve these problems or it is known that the issues are existing but no comprehensive researches 40 were conducted for identification of root causes behind the issues and no interventions were implemented for resolving problems. This is the most acute problems for the whole country because farmers are already poor and disadvantaged but now their land lies in within the planned areas, especially in areas planned for urbanization, industry and service zones, then they have to move out. The root causes are that there is no land ownership existed, but only land use right is validated. Since, land price is imposed without following the rule of market mechanism in which Hanoi is a typical example (market price of 1 m2 of land is 130 million VND, but compensation price is just 16 million VND per 1 m2 of the same land; Situation in Mekong Delta is similar, the stipulated price of 1 m2 of land is 1 million VND while market price is 30 million VND per 1 m2 of the same land). It is fine if confiscated land is used for public purpose, but it is an another story when confiscated land is used, by some companies, for bisiness purposes like urbanization, construction of buildings and villas or development of industry or services zones. In the later case, companies can gain a huge benefit because only after planning, land clearance, and construction of infrastructure, the land price will rise many times higher. Table 2.7: Primary land price and land price after land clearance Area Price Total # Indicator (ha) (VND/m2) (Billion VND) I Receipts 121,797 1 Fee from land use in rural areas 18,041 50,000 9,021 2 Fee from land use in urban areas 8,801 300,000 26,403 3 Fee from land lease for non-agriculture bisiness 23,033 150,000 86,374 II Expenses 56,819 1 Compensation for agriculture land 96,661 47,000 45,431 2 Compensation for production forests 2,078 25,000 520 3 Compensation for aquaculture land 10,902 45,000 4,906 4 Compensation for residential land in rural areas 2,883 50,000 1,442 5 Compensation for residential land in urban areas 1,477 300,000 4,431 6 Compensation for non-agriculture bisiness 60 150,000 90 III Balance 64,979 If collusion between state high ranking officers and companies is existed, then only normal people suffer disadvantages. Becoming poor people living in urban areas, but their skill of living, of production development, of making bisiness, of learning, of coming in for social welfare is till at level of actual farmers. Moreover, architechtural picture in urban areas is truncated and it lacks comprehensiveness (lack of social infrastructure), and good-looking features...Companies consider benefit is the most important factors and, in the new urban areas in Hanoi, they do not 41 care about surrounding envirenment that makes envirenment beauty dagraded, even it is worse than what is necessary to be. Supervision and investigation are not able to meet requirement of society. Thus, 70% of lawsuits in the country and in Mekong Delta are related to land. This figure reflects importance of this issue for current time. The reasons behinh this matter is weak perception of authorities, companies, and people plus incomplete policies and machenism for land management. 3.2.3. Land use challenges in socio-economic development in Mekong Delta a. Challenges in climate change, dam construction, forest destruction in upper watershed areas * Climate change: According to the warning of WB and of many other international organizations, if sea level rised, then five countries including Vietnam, will suffer serious disadvantages. What can be happened for a country with the world second highest population density plus area, especially area for agriculture production decreasing down near to a half ? In Mekong Delta, average arable land area per capita is lower than that of the country, then the situation is more complicated? These are important questions for management and utilization of land in Mekong Delta and they need answers to solve these problems immidiately by now and if not, unexpected calamities shoud occur more in the future. * Dam construction in upper waterhsed areas: - At present, in upper watershed areas of Mekong river, China has been constructing many large dams (like Manwan 1,500 MW and Dachaoshan 1,350 MW and Xiaowan 4,200 MW, and Jinghong 1,350 MW), and Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam also have been building hydropower plants and irrigation networks (Pakbeng, Luangprabang, Sayabouli, Paklay, Sanakham, Donasehong, Latsua, Ban Koum, Pakchom, Strung Treng, Sambor, Yaly, Srepok v.v). Moreover, together with Thailand and Laos, China has deepened bottom of the river for improvement of water ways. Construction of dams makes change in water flow and its intensity and creates floods and droughts and makes negative impacts on land quality. This is very expensive cost if the countries of Mekong river basin draw lessons learnt in management and utilization of Rhin river in Europ. Because of this, in comprehensive management of river, instead of focus on water flow, water ways, development of hydropower stations, and agriculture production, it is necesaary to manage ecosystems sustainanbly with people-centred approaches. In another direction, in Vietnam, if any body asking are there any socio-economic-national defense-security projects of most impression under two criteria of duration of existence and importance? Surely the answer will be dike system of the Red river. All people has recognized that, the dike system has been built by many generations of Vietnam with very long vision throughout several centuries and if this dike system was not existed, it is difficult for Vietnamese people to survive until now. However, the same issue in Mekong Delta plus experienecs drawn, but it is not sure whether Vietnaemse people construct dam systems as well as what has been 42 done for the Red river. At present, many dam projects were constructed and these construction works made this issue more serious because the dams created many small scattered flooded areas, hindering water ways and socio-economic development. Table 2.8: Flooded degree and flooded areas in Mekong Delta, 2000 Unit: 1.000 ha Current Non-structural Structural Flooded level Status Sea level raise Sea level raise Sea level raise Sea level raise (m) (CS) 0,69 m 1,00 m 0,69 m 1,00 m Compared Compared Compared Compared Area Area Area Area Area with CS with CS with CS with CS H < 0,5 1,049 289 -761 51 -998 202 -848 47 -1,002 0,5 3,0 66 84 17 102 36 84 18 102 36 Total of flooded area 2,813 3,574 3,812 3,660 3,815 >0,5m * Forest destruction and mining: Except Vietnam, in other five countries in Mekong river basin, forest cover is changing in a worse direction. In upper watershed areas, forest cover decreased from 60% in 1970 down to 25% in 2005 with an annual average lose of forest cover of 2%. Over exploitation of forest and clearance of forests for shifting cultivation, cash crop planting that all reduced protection capacity of forests in upper watershed areas while increased floods and droughts. Deforestation has changed the world richest ecosystems and biodiversity in the river basin. Mining activities in upper watershed areas has destroyed forest and dagraded land and polluted envirenment for a long period. *Poverty, low literatcy: People living in Mekong basin are considered as the poorest people of the world. Because their poverty, they are not skillful in sustainable cultivation, but their life 43 mainly relies on exploitation of forests and clearance of forests for shifting cultivation or for development of cash crops. On slopping land, feralit soil is eroded and washed off at a higher rate and that reduced soil productivity and destroyed structural facilities. In flat plains, use of pesticide and industry food and cultivation of several crops per year degenerated and polluted soil. These are challenges which need to be solved in management and utilization of land because it makes negative impact on production, bisiness, and normal life of people. b. Challenges in development of infrastructure, urban and industry zones Major challenge in development of infrastructure, urban, industry and service is lose of income for State, and lose of land for the poor people but it is benefit for companies; This is matter of inequity, democratcy for society to solve if there is a needs of sustainable development. At present, this issue is not as serious as it is in the Red river delta, but in the future, if these issues won’t be completely solved, there will be similar things happened in High Plataux Tay Nguyen, cental of Vietnam. On the other hand, lack of long vision in planning for development of infrastructure and idustry, trades and urbanization...has damaged existed dynamic equilibrium in the region and lost natural landscape beauty. These activities make negative impact on sustainable management and utilization of land (first construction and then destruction!) in a region of the world richness. 3.2.4. Land use control in production of agriculture commodities a. Land control in production of export agriculture commodities Key export agriculture commodities of Vietnam are also the key export agriculture commodities of Mekong Delta which are highly compititive goods such as rice, fish, shrimp and fruit. Production of these goods need firstly to be based on planning, management and utilization of land. Thus, this opinion is consistent with an old Russian proverb “There is nothing elder than the earth, but we till love it“. In this aspect, the researcher intended to analyse following list of goods: - Production of rice for export: Area for rice production for export in Mekong Delta has been increasing day by day for the past 30 years. This is a respected progress in a new and populated region where people’s life mainly relies on agriculture. Vietnam is the second largest of the world rice exporters and 90% of national export rice is produced in Mekong Delta. However today, Vietnam, especially this region are facing two challenges. The first, area for export rice production is narrowed due to development of industry and services plus impact of climate change... and The second, sale price is low because of old variety, low capacity of 44 cultivation. To solve these problems, it needs well supervise and control land management, especially land ownership or changes of utilization objectives and overcome floods, waterlogging and salinization. 1000 USD Khối lượ ng XK gạo 3,500,000 Tấ n 6,000,000 3,000,000 5,000,000 2,500,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2001 2005 2008 0 Năm 2001 2005 2008 Năm Chart 6: Change of quantity and price of export rice in the period 2001-2008 - Development of export aquatic product: Similarly with land allocated for export rice production, area planned for aquaculture development in Mekong Delta has been increasing day by day, but total aquaculture area is always lower than area for export rice production. Export of fish and shrimp varieties such as catfish (key variety) of Mekong Delta always accounts for high percentage of total aquatic export amount. Till being under economic crisis, but in 2009, it is estimated turn over from export of catfish could be over 1.5 billion USD However, export aquaculture production is facing three seroius challenges. The first, water surface for aquaculture production is rapidly changing, difficult for sustainable management and utilization. The second, prediction capacity is weak; producers are disadvantaged because of low production capacity and trade; The third, together with impact from upper waterhsed areas, unprompted development of aquaculture production has destroyed ecosystems. For solving these problems, it necessarily to supervise land management and utilization, and especially consider inter-region relations in land use and water use for sustainable development. Additionally, issues like envirenment, and ecological balance in Mekong Delta need to be considered too. Fish cellars in Chau Phu, An Giang and shrimp ponds in Kien Giang need to be studied and find measures out for mitigation of envirenment pollution. Table 2.9: Yield and value from export of catfish in 2008 45 Quantity Value # Companies (tone) (USD) 1 NAVICO 93392 187744968 2 HUNG VUONG CORP 80331 169351769 3 VINH HOAN CORP 33691 101317174 4 AGIFISH CO 46468 89864592 5 THIMA CO 22074 47966810 6 BIANFISHCO 1795 47180902 7 ANVIFISH 20258 45005570 8 HT FOOD 17107 39286869 9 Q.V.D FOOD CO 12991 38444182 10 CL FISH CORP 16475 37881392 Total 344582 804044228 - Planting and trading of export fruit: export fruit area in Mekong Delta has been increasing day by day with gradual establishment of fruit branch names. This is significant progress under the context of Vietnam intergation into global economics by development of export commodities. Market sharing for export fruit in Mekong Delta is not large yet, but there is a good potential in the future. To be sucessful in development of tropical fruit for export, in land aspect, it needs to control following issues. The first, research on identification of export variety and find land for development of those. The second, formulate strategy for devlopment of products with branch names, equipt processing facilities and increase investment effectiveness. The third, promote application of technologies and development of irrigation network, varieties, cultivation technique, protection and processing...and well manage land for areas specializing in fruit production. \ b. Land control in migration trend In development process of human society, purpose of poeple’s migration in general and migration from rural areas to urban in particular is to change their life ofcouse. However, not all countries solve this problem ecffectively and sustainably. Thus Vietnam in general and Mekong Delta in particular has to solve this issues. There are two types of migration as follows: - Internal migration within one region, province, distrcit or commune: It is necessary to develop production, business in the place right in their living areas that to mitigate migration flow. In another direction, State and authorities need to support people, especially the poor in apprenticeship and assist their children in schooling. At higher level, to support them in housing (100% or partially) because it is one of three most important things for one’s life to do which include apprentice, marriage and construction of a house). Planning for business development in 46 urban areas for creating jobs and income needs to consider this supplementary labour force. All authorities need to issue machenism and policies which support migrants to urban and which must be consitent with localities, provinces in Mekong Delta under the context of intergation into global economics. - External migration, from other region, province into this region and provinces: It is necessary to conduct surveys, and step by step classify and arrange and stabilize normal life for new commers because this is very complicated issue. Next step is to find land for re-settlement of migrants, allocate land for and assist them in housing and production issues for stabilization of their life and assist them in apprentice and education for the future generation. Design and develop bisiness and create job oppoturnities for their income generation. Design supportive programmes and projects and help migrants in being in line with native communities. With the support of experts, authorities should develop machenism and policies supporting for migrants with attention to socio-economic development, education, apprentices, and health care. For both types of migration, creating accomodation, job, income and development is of most importance and is based on sustainable management of land and water with perception of dialectrical relation of land and water resources with all other information. IV. Case study on land and water resources for development planning of production of export agriculture commodities 4.1. Justification for selection of site for case study and description of general condition 4.1.1. Justification for selection of site for case study It is known that An Giang is a province of Mekong Delta typified in production of rice and catfish, and Chau Phu dictrict is most typical. Yield of export rice and catfish has been increasing day by day and economic value also increases continously. However, An Giang is facing challenges in utilization of land and water use for socio-economic development. In Kien Giang province, shrimp rearing is sucessful for a long period. Presently, export value of aquaculture products including shrimp is high, much contributing into socio-economic development based on large investment in development of irrigation networks. Kien Luong is typical in improvement of nature by human strength. Kien Giang is also facing challenges in utilization of land and water for socio-economic development and sustainable development of production of agriculture products for export like rice and shrimp. Rice export of Vietnam is of high rank (world second largest rice export country) for many years, its export value is very high (abou 1.5 billion USD in reccent years), importantly contributing in socio-economic development in Mekong Delta. Above all, it has created branch names based on advantages of land and water which are able to produce globally compititive 47 commodities for a long time. However, compared with Thailand or some other countries, Vietnam price of the same rice variety is lower because of low quality and weak trading strategy. Vietnam catfish occupied a high rank and is unique in the world aquaculture market based on the known advantages since, it is difficult for the other countries in the world to compete. In short time, export value rapidly increases (nearly 1.5 billion USD in 2009) that much contributing in socio-economic develeopment in Mekong Delta. Above all, establishment of global branch names plus fruitful condition of the region is internationally compititive advantages for long time. Rank of shrimp export of this region is not weaker than that of countries in the region and even in the worldwide. However, quality and skill of human resource e.t.c. and market change are of constraints. Export fruit of Mekong Delta also is a strength based on compititive advantages but presently, it was not able to create high value nor to define a rank as high as one of rice and aquaculture products. Almost valuable fruit varieties of the world present in this region like durian, mangosteen, orrange, grapefruit, milky fruit, star apple, mango, coconut. If apply intensive cropping technique, build up branch names and reputation, apply processing and post-harvest protection technologies, promote trading strategies with international standard, it is sure that to the year 2020, fruit in the region is not worse than rice or aquaculture products. 4.1.2. Description of general condition Study team went to An Giang, worked with provincial DARD, DoNRE, then with DARD of Chau Phu district, then with My Phu commune, and finally with Mr. Hien, a owner of a catfish farm. In Kien Giang province, Study team worked with provincial DIP, Kien Luong People Committee, and Duong Hoang commune. Below is background information of production models for export commodities in Mekong Delta: BOX NUMBER THREE Background information 1. An Giang province * An Giang province: Natural gross area is 353,675,4 ha, of which agriculture land is 290,494,1 ha. Population 2,253,865 persons (2008), labour force accounts for 50%. Rice yield is 3,519.4 thousand tones (2008); productivity varies from 5 to 9 tones/ha, catfish is 100 thousand tones (2007), productivity is 0.2 tones/ha. * Chau Phu district: Land rice area is 77.8 thousand hectares and land for catfish is 473.6 ha. Rice product is 475.942 tones (2007); productivity varies from 4 to 8 tones/ha; catfish is 75.1 tones (2007), productivity is 0.2 tones/ha. * My Phu commune: Area is 3,646 ha, of which rice land is 3,137 ha; catfish 48 area is 80 ha. Rice and fish products with productivity varies from 5 to 8 tones /ha; Catfish yield is 18 thousand tones (2007) and productivity is 0.2 tones/ha. * Mr. Hien’s farm: Area for catfish rearing is 1.2 ha. Catfish yield is 135 tones (2008). Price = 13 thousand VND per kg without debt and 15 thousand VND pr kg with a debt (2009). 2. Kien Giang province *Kien Giang province: Natural gross area 636.6 thousand ha, of which agriculture land is 439.1 thousand ha. Population is 1,727.6 million persons, and labour force accounts for 50%. Rice yield is 3387.2 thousand tones (2008) with productivity varies from 4 to 8 tones/ha, shrimp yield is over 100 thousand tones (2007). * Kien Luong district: Rice land area is 53 thousand ha and area for shrimp rearing is 9 thousand ha. Rice yield is 273,042.0 tones (2007), shrimp yield 9,288.0 tones 2007. * Duong Hoa commune: Rice land is 225.6 ha; shrimp land is 3,307.4 ha. Productivity of goods is 40 tones/year/3 crops (2007), shrimp productivity is 5 tones/ha 2007. * Mr Dzung’s farm: Area for catfish is 8.0 ha. Shrimp yield is 50 tones (2008) its price varies from 80 to 95 thousand VND /kg and net profit is 600 million VND; financial investment 1.8 billion VND, failure of crops received only 300 million VND 4.2. Analysis and assessment 4.2.1. General analysis and sassessment Analysis and assessment drawn from surveys in An Giang and Kien Giang provinces, Chau Phu and Kien Luong districts, My Phu and Duong Hoa communes, and Mr. Hien and Mr. Dzung farms and this section needs to consider land and water resources in general condition of sustainable socio-economic development, especially of production of export agriculture commodities under the context of intergration into global economics. -The first: From general point of view, to judge natural condition in terms of micro, macro levels and quality and quatity (especially land and water resources), then Mekong Delta is considered as a godsend which is most suitable for production, harvest, processing and export of rice, catfish, shrimp and tropical fruit. Study team was confusing and could not answer on the question why is catfish able to grow only in Mekong Delta. However, with an own subjective opinion, it may be because of Mekong Delta situates in the lowest areas of lower Mekong basin where there are a lot of alluvial soil, ephemeras, water flow, closure to sea shore...since temprature, neutral 49 characteristics of water sources are the main reasons behinh of this sucess. For rice export, there is existence of a mutual consensus that Mekong Delta has extremely favorite condition in terms of ferttile soil, profuse water supply compared with the conditions in Asian region which is a rice production center of the world. The second: it is impossible to negate that when comparing with Red river delta, people living in Mekong Delta is much more seft- motivated than people living in Red river delta. An example can be showed here is that when the Study team conducted survey in this region in February 2009, recognized that there was no opinion saying about shortage of budget for business or production at all, even ideas of province, district and commune authorities are similar. Survey at two shrimp rearing households and the survey result helped us in understanding of why market price of fish is 15,000 VND/kg, but its actual price is only 12,000 VND; or shrimp market price is 70,000 VND/kg, but actual price is 80,000 VND/kg. Farm woners explained that this situation occured due to farms owners’ borrowing money on interest for fish and shrimp rearing, but nobody said that they has borrowed money for production. This is big difference compared with Red rive or with north mountainous areas or middle areas of high Plataux Tay Nguyen because the first answer of people there on the constraints of production is shortage of budget. The third, from angles of state management and production of rice, catfish, shrimp and tropical fruit for export in the time of indistrialization and modernization and under the context of intergration into global economics, then the important issues in Mekong Delta, the expansion of land norm or more importantly, land ownership and land price must follow market machenism. Farmers and businessmen who have capital, labour, technologies, understanding of markets and management capacity in production development and organization are allowed in free production development. Since, State just has to focus on support for the poor and for landless people by issuance of relevant policies and machenism which support their production in the disadvantaged period like economic crisis. Additionally, it needs relevant policies on wages and payment for labour cost which are able to ensure a nomal life of agriculture and fishery workers who work for farms in this region. The fourth: It is necessary to clearly understand that sustainable socio-economic development, especially development of export products in Mekong Delta, based on land and water resources, are difficult and challenging. This should be analyzed in three aspects (1) management itself in development and sustainable utilization of two resources now and in the future; (2) Vietnam and 50 Mekong Delta passed poverty line by land and water resources-based production regime, but literatcy of people is till low, human resources limited, science and technologies and specialization in bisiness and production of export commodities are till of low level; (3) due to impact of climate change, natural disasters, over exploitation in Mekong river upper watershed areas, diseases and epidemics more frequently occur with more serious damages. 4.2.2. Concrete analysis and assessment a. Export of rice Concrete analysis: rough estimation of rice production on 1 hectare, people is able to gain from 2 to 3 million VND of net benefit. One owner of rice farm normally cultivate an area of from 5 to 50 hectares, so net fenefit of a farm owner is of from 20 to some hundred million VND per year. The reasons behinh this low effectiveness in rice production in this area are inaccuracy in definition of right strategic production direction that to meet demand of high class market like Japan and Wetsern Europ. Low capacity of production and business in terms of seeds, variety, processing, post harvest protection, packing, and dilivery of products. Tortuous trading made big loses for producers plus low management capacity make it weaker than Thailand. Export rice is strategic commodity, but it is assigned to associations to manage with export quota e.t.c This is not acceptable because this work actual must be managed by MARD and Ministry of Trade and Industry, Provincial People Comittees and is finally decided by Prime Minister. Only this way can uitlize, manage, develop land and water resources sustainably and effectively in Mekong Delta. Compare with Thailand, rice price of Vietnam, and of Mekong Delta (including An Giang) is ussually 10 to 15% lower than price of the same rice variety (100%, 25%, 15% and 5% of broken rice) of Thailand. On the other hand, policies supporting producers, especially export policies, with unrealistic instruction, have created heavy loses for farmers. In particular, 2008 is a typical year, Government has stopped rice export when it price rised to 1000 USD per tone. BOX NUMBER THREE Effective use of land and water resources and meeting market demand At present, in Mekong Delta there are areas planned for intensive production of export rice with order of Japan (Japanese standard). They brought seeds, cultivation technique, processing and protection technologies, and gaurantee in purchase of products. Farmers and companies implement productions; Result showed that on one hectare of land, farmers are able to gain net benefit of 30% higher compared with other areas having the same conditions. The reasons behinh this success is that seeds made in Japn are of high quality and this variety is favorite for Japanese. They supervise production processes 51 and buy products. It is just an idea that this is appropriate measures for business in Vietnam, not only for rice production, but also for other types of products. These production measures do not pollute water or degenerate soil since, production is more sustainable compared to current high yield-based rice production in Vietnam. Such production measures are useful in restoring land and water reources while lessening envirenment dagredation (measures currently are applied in Europ). Actually this is current export rice production measures of Thailand with high- quality based approach with longer cultivation cycle (one crop per year against three crops per year in Vietnam) and with the goal of meeting demand of developed countries. b. Export of shrimp and catfish Concrete analysis: Export of shrimp: With one hectare for shrimp rearing for export, companies or farm owners gain 500 million VND of net benefit. A farm owner normally has one to some hectares of land for shrimp rearing, the farm owner gain net benefit varying from 500 million to some billion VND per year. The reasons behinh this sucess are suitability of land and water reources in this region for rearing shrimp for export and right development of target markets which are Japan and Western Europ. Production capacity is quite high, and products are accepted by high class markets. However, it is not meaning of non existence of constarints in producing these aquaculture products. Production of seeds together with processing, protection of post harvest products, packaging, delivery, low management capacity and turtuous trading all create loses for producers and rising price of products. Compare with Thailand, shrimp price of Vietnam, and of Mekong Delta (including Kien Giang) is ussually lower than price of the same shrimp variety produced in Thailand. Polluted water and dagraded land and unbalanced ecosystems are risks for sustainable production of aquaculture products in the region. Sometime, large amount of capital invested, but unstablized markets and diseases and epidemics placed producers in a possition of “to be or not to be“ which is much more dangerous than small profit. Export of catfish: from catfish rearing for export in one pond (about some hundred square meters), farm owners or companies gain net benefit about 3 to 5 tens of million VND. A farm owner normally has about one to some hectares and the farm owner gain net benefit, varying from 100 million to one billion VND per year depending on markets. The reasons behinh this 52 sucess are that they are unique product whcih has highly compatitive advantages in the world markets and because China, Thailand, Laos and other countries, who are competting with Vietnam in export of aquaculture products, do not have this type of product. Native people who were living in this region for long time have identified the best ways in rearing this catfish. Today with open policies, catfish production in Mekong Delta has been heightened. On the other hand, definition of right strategic production direction that to meet demand of high class market like Japan and Wetsern Europ is necessary. Production capacity is quite high, and products are accepted by high class markets. However, it is not meaning of non existence of constarints in producing these aquaculture products such like envirenment, specialization, and tax barrier e.t.c. Surveys showed that old fish ponds are no more standardized in terms of area, and polluted water. Solving this problem or lowing down the price to farmers’ products by comparnies or trade urgument with Ameriaca all are most important issues for farm owners who produce this products. c. Export of fruit Concrete analysis: With one hectare of orchard for export, companies or farm owners gain 5 million VND of net benefit. A farm owner normally has one to some hectares of land for orchard planting, the farm owner gain net benefit varying from some tens million to some hundred million VND per year. Effectiveness of tropical fruit production for export was increasing, but that is till lower than its existing potential. Due to lacking long vision and deep analysis on strength, weakness, oppoturnities and challenges then, competitive fruit products with fruit of Thatiland and Malaysia were not identified yet. Comparison with three export products like rice, catfish and shrimp recognized that tropical fruit export products of Vietnam in general and in Mekong Delta in particular are of disadvantages. Moreover, Vietnam’s cultivation technique for tropical fruit production for export is lower than that of the other countries in the region, except Laos and Cambodia. This is weakness that Vietnam and farms and people in Mekong Delta have to overcome if they want to expand their fruit markets to developed countries. 4.3. Lessons learnt * Lesson one: It is necessary to have full perception and cooperation between countries, especially of six riparian countries of Mekong River basin, in utilization, management, and development of resources including land and water resources. Vietnam has to have clearer perception and immidiately prepare action plans for sustainable socio-economic developemnt. * Lesson two: production of rice, tropical fruit, catfish and shrimp for export lacks ivestment in science and technologies, researches on demand and taste of high class consummers since, it was not able to produce goods as expected ones for consuming markets. 53 * Lesson three: Between producers and processors, which normally are companies, there are conflics in benefit sharing. Because the producers have no processing and export capacity in terms of limited budget, technologies and human resources e.t.c. while processors are not interested in investment in production because of low benefit and high risks. * lesson four: Epidemic for fish, shrimp etc and diasters (floods, droughts, storms, tsumani e.t.c.) are challenging for production and trading of rice, catfish, shrimp and tropical fruit for export. * Lesson 5: Markets for these products are changing rapidly in accordance with taste of consumers or depending on weather condition or economic crisis as it is taking place today. Prediction of consuming markets for these export products is really not simple when riparian countries have the same product types, except catfish. Part three Recommendations for improvement of quality and effectiveness of land and water use in master socio-economic development planning for mekong delta to the year 2020 I. Scientific and realistic base of land and water utilization in planning 1.1. Inventory and assessment of main resources a. Assessment of land resources In market-oriented economics with focus on export, land should be inventoried with FAO methods. Accordingly, assessment of land should not focus only on land categories, physical and chemical characteristics, but it needs to consider other aspects like soil productivity, suitability for crops (site matching), products to be produced, consuming markets and transportation distance. This is very necessary in Mekong Delta because all production of goods relates to land. However, assessment of land (capacity, alum contents) has to be implemented in direct connection with water (water level). This is importance which makes qualitative and quantitative impact on development of productions and bisiness in the region. On the other hand, for the concrete aspects, it also needs to conduct detail assessment of land in the intensive production areas becasue it makes direct impact on aquaculture production, orchard planting, and production of rice for export. b. Assessment of water resources 54 Water resource needs to be assessed at a dynamic status and consider aspects of inter-regional relation and in terms of quantity and quality of water resource. This is all year around water flow (in rainy and dry seasons) and it relates to construction of dams, deepening river bottom, destruction of watershed forests and mining of minerals...by countries in watershed areas with qualitative and qauntitative criteria and indicators. It is more important if the countries in watershed areas, like Thailand, transfer water to the outsides of the Mekong basin. Here, regime of seasonal and daily tide which makes direct impact on land (alum contents, shrinkage of arable land) and on production of export goods (rice, aquaculture products, fruit) is in needs of detail assessment. c. Assessment of other main resources - Assessment of aquaculture resources: Aquaculture resource needs to be assessed comprehensively with support of experts and international financial organizations. The Study team thinks that this is difficult issues and Vietnam just focuses on utilization, rearing, processing, and export but does not conduct comprehensive assessment of that complex resouce which is impacted by weather and water flow and water source (quality and quantity). We recommend to carry out indepth research on rearing, processing and export of catfish in terms of machenism and global policies. It is known that nature in this region gave preferential condition in producing fragrant and delicious and nutritious and high economic valuable specialities even in the time of global economic crisis, especially for export products (with branch names, and compititive advantages) which are not existed in Thailand, Laos and China e.t.c. - Assessment of forest resource: This resource needs to be assessed in comparison of forest status in 50 years of the past because at that time, mangrove in Mekong Delta was one of the largest mangrove areas of the earth. Assessment should be in terms of ecological balance, envirenment protection, biodiversity, and its contribution in socio-economic development and poverty reduction. Beside of this, assessment needs to consider dynamic harmonization between establishment of mangrove and development of aquaculture production (crab, shrimp) aming at effective and sustainable development. This issue has a lot of constraints and ones need to focus on research on this topic in combination of national and international experiences with harmonization between researches on ecology, silviculture, economics, sociology in which machenism and policies are of very importance. c. Establishment of resuorce information system It is necessary to establish resource information system which include land and water resources in Mekong Delta with following steps: the first step is to design resource information system; the second step is to collect resourec information (spatial and non-spatial information); the third step 55 is to input resource information into systems; the fouth step is to manage and share information which include establishment of management regulation; The fifth step is to update infoprmation, especially information on land and water resources. BOX NUMBER FIVE Model of management and utilization of resources in general, and of land and water resources Under the context of Vietnam intergration into global economics, Mekong Delta needs to conduct assessment on effectiveness of utilization and management of natural resources, especially of land and water resources in two following scales: a, In the whole Mekong Delta, it should focus on basical orientation and inter-regional relation under the context of national socio-economic development, of Mekong Delta, and of intergation into global economics. b, At production models in which attention should be paid on export of rice, of aquaculture rearing, of fruit production and of development of urban transportation, irrigation, industry, and services. c, Utilization, management and development of land and water resources in Mekong Delta for socio-economic development and sustainable production of export goods under close dialectrical relations between resources types, in particular these two resources and consider their carrying capacity together with envirenement protection. Solving above issues will provide good input for sustainable master socio-economic development planning to the year 2020 and even for a longer period in Mekong Delta from a point of view of sustainable development. 1.2. Long vision in sustainable utilization of resources 1.2.1. The reasons behind the requirement of having long vision One of three reasons which made America became a rich and powerful country because this country has natural resource and has been able to effectively use, manage, and develop its resources. Concrete vision in utilization, management and development of land and water resources is needs of planning for utilization of these two resources to the year 2020 based on analysis and assessment of related information aiming at providing basical information for socio- economic developemnt planning for Mekong Delta to the year 2020. Thus, natural resources, especially two most strategical and important land and water resources need to be put under priority of researches on management, development and sustainable and 56 effective utilization. For Mekong Delta, this work is even more necessary because more than 70% of export commodities of Vietnam are produced in this region. If sea level risen to the level predicted by World Bank, it is not clear what would be the picture of socio-economics in Mekong Delta? But surely all advantages and potential on production of export commodities will not remain. This region, once more again, will become desolate region as it was in 100 years of the past which will not be restored with fertile soil by development of irrigation systems as what has been done in this time. 1.2.2. Immidiate actions It needs to conduct comprehensive national research programme in Mekong Delta as Tay Nguyen (High Plataux) programme I and II for identification of potential, challenges, e.t.c. and make recommendations and suggest solutions for sustainable development for this region. If oil or gas are identified it will create new driving force for development of this region and if challenges are identified, they have to be solved otherwise Mekong Delta will not be able to continue its development. Identification of land, water, oil or challenges all are of strategic importance for development not only for this region, but also for the whole country in terms of production of export commodities. In concrete and depth research on irrigation, gydrology, sea dike, land use, soil classification, soil, and soil improvement is in urgent needs. Because if these issues are solved, then, utilization of resources, especially of land and water resources, will be more effective and sustainable. Of course, researches should be comprehensive, inter-regional as well as concrete for production of export commodities. Only doing this, socio-economic development of this region will be sustained. On the other hand, the study team, considering the context of globalization and intergration and of Vietnam intergaration into global economics, recommends that Mekong Delta needs to conduct comprehensive assessments on following production models: Model on rice production for export; Model on aquaculture production for export; Model on urban development; Model on transportation development; Model on irrigation development; Model on industry development; Model on service development e.t.c then define more appropriate orientations and solutions for development. Of course, it also needs to conduct research on themes which serve for regional mater socio-economic development planning for Mekong delta to the year 2020. The researches should focus on relation between development and sustainable utilization of all resources including land and water resouces. 1.3. Recommendations on prediction of socio-economic indicators 1.3.1. General point of view 57 Under the context of complex national and international dynamic changes due to financial and economic crisises plus impact of climate change, and human, animal and plant diseases which all created major difficulties and negative changes. On the other hand, prediction itself is very difficult work thus, only after one to two months, many people recognized that their estimation is already of backwardness. Thus, prediction contents must focus on main strategic issues without which it is impossible to imagine about future plans. Moreover, prediction should be general and not too specific (this is current constraints). One more technical issue is that timeframe for the first five years needs to be splitted into shorter periods as this period needs more concrete vision. 1.3.2. Recommendations for some prediction indicators We agrreed with Dr. Prof. Joseph E Stiglitz (Nobel Prize 2002) that prediction of indicators should be made just for main issues like economic growth, GDP per capita, but current estimation methods should be changed. The reasons behind this is benefit of education and health care e.t.c makes impact on development. Some other indicators like population, labour, poverty reduction, and envirenmental protection should be predicted too. In the regional planning, it should not specify concrete quantity of key commodities but ones should define bisiness development strategy for each product type; orientation for development of raw material areas; application of science and technologies; steps in exploitation and processing including product design; consumption of products e.t.c based on principles that to design products of unique models with compititive price with high quality and productivity. Timefame of first 5 years should be splitted into two shorter periods (one short period is of 2 and half years) and it is more suitable if the second five years should be kept unchanged II. Orientations for planning of land and water resources 2.1. Recommendations for utilization of land in regional planning to the year 2020 2.1.1. Land use principle Not just to pay attention to food security, energy security, but it needs also to pay attention to land security. Because average land per capitat of Vietnamese people is of the lowest level of the world plus impact of climate change, three flat plains and Easoop plain will be seriously inundated and 30 million people have to evacuate to the other regions. Land use planning in Mekong Delta must obey the Land laws and legitimate regulations issued by Vietnam Government and all strategies, policies, orientations for development, management, utilization and planning of land by Party, State, Government of Vietnam. Land use planning in Mekong Delta has to be in line with development plans of sectors, industry zones, service zones and of mater socio-economic development plans for Mekong Delta and of development plans of provinces and districts of the region. 58 Land use planning in Mekong Delta must be considered in inter-regional and inter-national relations and relation between lower and upper Mekong basin. On the other hand, land use planning must be considered under the context of Vietnam intergration into global economics. Land use planning in Mekong Delta must be made based on harmonization between objectives of national sustainable economic development and interest and ispiration of land users. Especially, it must ensure common land security and security of basic components. Land use planning in Mekong Delta has to bring into play strength, potential of land and mitigate constraints and weakness in management, utilization of land with focus on production of agriculture commodities for export and on development of unban and industry e.t.c. 2.1.2. Concept and objective a. Concept of land use Overall concept is that land has to be considered as very valuable national resource, as special production facility, and as internal force and capital of the country; Utilization, management and development of land must be objective-based, effective, saving, sustainable and bring into full play potential of land; Investment in expansion of land, increase quality of and protect agriculture land; ensure land and national food security, sustainable development in Mekong Delta and agriculture production for export; protect ecological envirenement followed development plans of Government. b. Objective of land use Utilize, manage and develop land effectively aiming at sustaianble socio-economic development in Mekong Delta based on development of infrastructure, urban, human resources e.t.c and development of ptoduction and business, especially of potential export agriculture commodities and protect ecological envirenment in the region. 2.1.3. Land use orientation a. General land use orientation Maintain effective utilization, management and development of agriculture and forest land and aquaculture land. Priority should be given for developoment of industry and socio-economic infrastructure. Allocate land appropriately for development of urban, of rural residential areas and of servises. Change land utilization objective and adjust inappropriateness in utilization and management of land in the region. Utilization, management and development of land must link with national defense and political security. Utilize, manage and develop land effectively and sustainably based on saving and soil-improvement basics. 59 Utilize, manage and develop land and protect ecological envirenement based on development of socio-economic infrastructure for all levels of the region, sub-region, province, district and commune. b. Land use plans recommended for the period to the year 2020 For land use planning in Mekong Delta, the study team recommended a realistic way which is to follow hierarcky approach, start from general level and down to the details. Accordingly, land use planning should be made for regional level first, then for sub-region, province (in planning for regional level, province is considered as planning unit) with three land categories. On the other hand, three land categories are further classified into more details. For example, agriculture land is classified into traditional agriculture land, forestland, aquaculture land e.t.c. Similarly, non-agriculture land is further classified into residental land, special use land e.t.c. Unused land is classified into flat land, slope land. Below is recommendations for land use planning in Mekong Delta for the year 2009 as follows: * Proposal for land use plans with three land categories Based on the above principles and on consideration of poptential and capacities of management, utilization of land, of requirement for sustainable of socio-economic development, of context of Vietnam itergration into global economics, land use plans for Mekong Delta are proposed. It is just to define where to develop and why to develop and how big is amplitude of land use orientation, but not to propose specific recommendations like it has been done now. Due to specific proposals of land use without explaination on spatial possitioning for pieces of land which are too small compared with total land area, since it became as it looks like today. This is reason behind loses of farmers’ arable land, low effective development of economics and industry zoning and creation of land use conflics between land users. Table 3.1: Land use plans for Mekong Delta with three land categories to the year 2020 # To the year 2010 To the year 2020 Iterms Area Ratio Area Ratio Natural gross area (ha&%) 4,058,047 100.00 4,058,047 100.00 1 Agriculture land (ha&%) 3,364,548 82.91 3,223,805 79.44 2 Non-agriculture land 679,250 16.74 833,367 20.54 (ha&%) 3 Unused land (ha&%) 14,249 0.35 875 0.02 Thus, agriculture land increases at beginning, and stops increaser in 2015 and decreases in 2020. Non-agriculture land continously increases because it is allocated for development urban, industry, infrastructure and services. Unused land continously decreases becasue development of irrigation network e.t.c. 60 * Proposal of land use plans for sub-region and province. Avoiding confusion in planning for the whole region, the study team recommends land use plans for sub-region and provinces as follows: For Mekong Delta, the study team recommends to conduct some additional researches at defferent scales for land use planning as follows: a, Four sub-regions (Dong Thap Muoi, Long Xuyen quadrangular, Ca Mau peninsula, Area between Tien and Hau rivers. b, Two large areas which are rural sub-region and urban sub-region with priorities for different land use; c, Local unit down to provincial level because unit for regional planning is province. Recommendations are like these, but in this report, the study team is not intended to propose full data/figure because proposal of specific data/figure is not sunficiently acurrate as it needs deeper research on specific themes under the broader context. Moreover, this work needs to be visioned from an angle of matser socio-economic development plan for Mekong Delta and under the context of Vietnam intergration into global economics. * Monitoring, evaluation and adjustment of land use: - This is very important work and is considered as continous work. Because only result of monitoring and evaluation is able to identify constarints or emerging issues which will help in adjustment of land use plan if it is necessary and increasing of land use effectiveness. Moreover, socio-economic development is a dynamic process and consuming markets are changing time to time. Because of that, there appear to have new demand in land use and occurence of complicated issues. 2.2. Recommendation for water use in regional planning to the year 2020 2.2.1. Concept and principles in water resource planning a. Main concepts in water resource planning Mekong Delta situates in lower Mekong basin, adjacent to the ocean, and having dense canals networks, recommendations for water resource planning for Mekong Delta are: - water resource planning should be based on development plans for the whole Mekong Delta, of single sector, of multi-sectors and on the contrary, it should be fundamental basic for development of the other sectors. This is inter-supportive and supplementary issues. - Proposal for multi-objective development and overall development based on strength of agriculture, aquaculture, forestry e.t.c in the specific areas together with protection of envirenemnts for sustainable development. - Water resource planning has to consider its impact on and relation with the other sectors (such as transportation, inhabilitation, agriculture, forestry, aquaculture, envirenment protection e.t.c) 61 - Water resource planning in Mekong Delta needs to consider development of water resources in upper watershed and nearby areas; Objective, tasks and standards used in water resource planning must be generalized for the whole region but also needs to be specific for particular locations. - Harmonize the structural and non-structural solutions with special attention to non-structural solutions (prediction, warning, cropping calendar, operational instruction, policies e.t.c in general water reource planning; strengthern capacity in prevention for and rescue of people agaisnt disasters; b. Main principles in water resource development planning Obey legitimate documents and regulations on water resources, especially the Law on Water Resource No 8/1998/QH10, dated on 20 May 1998 by National Assemble of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam; Respect natural condition, just influence to it for change only when recognizing economic and envirenment advantages; Assess and analyse the natural laws of each water source based on result of which to recommend comprehensive but more generalized solutions; Respect value brought in by water (flood brings alluvium, aquatic resource, cleanliness of field…), try not to remove or mitigate to minimum level the contrariwise impact on these value; Respect value of natural reserves while irrigation projects should be both systemtical and single because they need to bring into full play their effectiveness and but each single project has to bring in its effect in accordance with the investment. Proposal for each project, group of projects or project network must be carefully judged in terms of economics, technique, sociology, and envirenment. Moreover, it needs to consider relation between regions, locations, between structural and non-structural solutions, and between upper waterhsed area and coastal zones. Planning proposals are somehow already carefully judged, but they are always “openâ€? for additional adjustment or changes if it is necessary. Constuction of dams for control of salinization is aiming at enlargement of land areas with fresh water and use rain water for crops. For transition areas, it needs to strengthen capacity of fresh water storage and keeping salt that to create favorite condition of water rotation for safe aquaculture rearing; Arrange appropriate cropping seasons to save irrigating water in dry seasons and increase effectiveness of fresh water as it is more and more scarce in exhausted dry seasons. Promote construction of dams for control and prevention of floods for transfering crops and development of aquaculture. Apply appropriate measures in the years when water is of high salty contents that to aviod risks for people’s life and ensure success for agriculture and aquaculture production. 2.22. Flood control and its impact on exhausted water flow Flood control is indispensible for stable development in the flooded region. However, In Mekong Delta threre is a needs of deeper researches on following themes: - Control of flood frequency for agriculture, inhabitants, and infrastructures in consideration of its impact on aquaculture production; Solutions and measures for control of flood frequency in 62 earlier flooded seasons for ensuring and mitigating of rice loses in Autumn-summer season while taking more alluvium and food for aquatic varieties for Winter season. - Change of crop structures and flexible adjustment of crop calendars to be more suitable in the controlled flooded areas with highly developed aquaculture; Impact of constructed flood control dams on distribution of water in exhausted dry season (in river and canal systems); capacity of soil moisturization; change of underground water level and its consequence in salinization. - Effectiveness of protection of Autumn-summer and Winter-spring seasons by high embankments of rivers and canals which may dagrade ecological envirenment, reduce productivity of agriculture production and hinder water flow in main crops seasons. - Transformation of rivers by flood control has been taking place complexly and severely in the last 10-15 years, especially in Tien and Hau rivers; Impact on ecosystems in flooded areas, especially on aquatic breeds, variety as well as on sensitive wetland areas. 3.2.3. Improvement and development of agriculture on alkaline soil In Mekong Delta there are three main soil types (1) alkaline soil; (2) salty soil; and (3) Fresh aluvium soil; After many years of improvement, current area of alkaline soil remains about 1.6 million hectares (41%), of which about 886 thousand hectares of pure alkaline soil and 658 thousand hectares of salty alkaline soil; area of potential alkaline soil is of 613 thousand hectares, distributing in well-drained areas and is suitable for paddy rice. Thus, 72% of potential alkaline soil is used for agriculture, 5% for forerst planting and some part of it remains as waste land. Salty alkaline soil is concetrated along coastal zones with 46% of agriculture land, 17% of forests, 10% of shrimp rearing and the rest is unused. In last three decades, improvement of alkaline soil in Dong Thap Muoi and Long Xuyen Quardrangular showed that alkaline soil is able to be converted into stable agriculture arable land if there are high quality breeds, technologies plus good irrigation and drainage network which wash alum out of fields (potential alum). However, currently there is till 150 thousand hectares of heavy alkaline soil (active alum), which are difficult to be improved for agriculture purpose and main its part is used for Melalueca planting and the rest is waste land. 3.2.4. Development of agriculture land on salty soil and restructring of production From nearly 2 milliohm hectares of naturally salinized area, Mekong Delta has about 790 thousand hectares of salty soil (20%), distributing along coastal zones of the ocean and Ca Mau Penisula, of which area of soil salinized less than two months per year is 100 thousand hectares (this is already used for agriculture), area of soil salinized from 2 to 4 months is 520 thousand hectares (88% is used for agriculture, 9% for forests and 3% is waste land), and area of all year around salty land is 170 thousand hectares (34% is used for forests, 25% for shrimp rearing, and 36% is waste land). 63 Identification and supply of fresh water for washing alum out from alkaline soil and for converting it into agriculture arable land and for improvement of local people’s life are important issues in Mekong Delta. However, recently, due to economic development and land conflics between rice and shrimp producers, or broader to say, conflics between agriculture and aquaculture developments are of most attention of people. In the first years after liberation, intention of Party and Government is to produce more food for the country and irrigation sector has concenstrated in attempt of rice production (expansion of freshened land). In current supply of water (salty, fresh and brackish water) for aquaculture, irrigation network exposed many defects, mostly in the areas mixed with fresh and salty water. On the other hand, irrigation network for interior fields which serve for diversifying production of commodities is not constructed yet (rice and aquaculture; aquaculture only…) Currently, in exhausted dry season, for socio-economic development, Mekong Delta needs averagely about 600 to 650 cubic metre of water per second (m3/s); for February, it needs 766 m3/s; Average water flow, in Tan Chau-Cha Doc in exhausted dry season from February to May, is about 2,600 – 3,000 m3/s, especially in Appril of some years, water flow is down to 2,000 m3/s. To the year 2010, water amount needed in February is 1,015 m3/s and in Appril is 846 m3/s. Production, especially agriculture production should be lessened in exhausted dry seasons, avoiding salinization. Salinization is a complex phenomenon in river mouth where it is affected by tide. In attemp of agriculture development in Mekong delta, control of salinization and utilization of water in exhausted dry season is one of the most important tasks. To improve and control salinization effectively, it needs common strategy and programmes in utilization and protection of water in all riparian countries in Lower Kekong Basin like Basin Development Planning (BDP), Water Utilization Programme (WUP), Envirenment Programme (EP), Flood Mitigation and Management Programme (FMMP) which are currently being implemented). However, we also need to be proactive in finding solutions for salinization control and utilization of this resource right in Mekong Delta, fristly in the areas of easy salinization. Facing with the risks of the future fresh water shortage in an international river where Mekong Delta situates in its lower basin, fresh water supply has been being the most strategical and important issue which is never of stability. Together with long term solutions, first of all we need: Completely establish embankment system against salinization in coastal zones and along rivers that to serve for development of agriculture, aquaculture and people’ life. III. Recommendations for sustainable production of export commodities, for regional planning under the context of intergration into global economics 3.1. Production of rice for export 64 Models of rice production and bisiness are considered as the oldest ones and the models of rice production for export was existed longest time and at the largest scale compared with the other production models of agriculture commodities for export of Vietnam. This is a compititive advantage of Vietnam rice nevetheness, this commodity stands as the second rank on the world rice export market. However, the deeper study showed that there are very few reseaches which deeply and comprehensively analyze and assess the production and business processes of this product under the context of intergration into global economics. Many people say about and many papers mentioned this issue, but practice showed that research on varieties is not conducted with markets or science and technologies separate cultivation from protection or from shrinkage of arable land or from water unbalance and these all hinder development of this commodity. The study team recommends a clear strategy for business and production of rice for export which clearly defined the key production direction, areas (attention to land and water), scale, rice variety and production itinerary from production of breed, cultivation, harvest, preservation, processing, transporting, consumtion under the standards of developed countries who import rice of Vietnam. For consumtion market, it needs to define clearly where and whom to sell the goods and technologies selected have to be suitable for production process. On the other hand, supoort to production and development of agriculture goods are indispensible. Developed countries till support farmers, but support needs to be under WTO regulation and rule. It needs to develop inftrastructure of transportation, irrigation; seek of consumtion markets; conduct science researches on education, health care, insurance, development of human resource, production skill, rice export business, but planning should be done in advance, before carrying out these works. It needs to coinduct indepth study on joint venture of Vietnam and Japan in rice production for export and to draw lessons learnt in identification of suitable water and land e.t.c. because field survey and review of documents showed that this was a model of high economic effectiveness (30% higher than a normal cultivation model). This is explained that this rice variety satisfies the taste of Japanese consumers and cultivation technique, processing, preservation, and output products are made under Japanese standard and Japanese side guarantees buying and cumsumtion of final products. At present (2009), farmers in Mekong Delta are facing with difficulties in sale of farmers’ used-to-cultivated rice because of its lowing down of price and decrease of buyers. Scientifist and managers and businessmen had advised farmers not to cultivate this variety but farmers did not accept this idea, since they suffer heavy losses. 3.2. Production of catfish and shrimp for export Models of catfish and shrimp production for export are considered successful but risky. This is a compititive advantage because catfish is only available in lower areas of Mekong river mouth, but not available in China and Thailand. Since, its value increases day by day because of compatitive advantage and Vietnam obtained encourageable result from sale of catfish. Howerver, it till needs more researches on how to increase effectiveness of production of two 65 these products in terms of ecology and envirenment balance because they both relate to utilization, management and development of land and water resources. The study team recommends a clear strategy for business and production of catfish and shrimp for export in which clearly defined the key production direction, areas (attention to land and water), scale, catfish and shrimp varieties and production itinerary from production of breed, cultivation, harvest, preservation, processing, transporting, consumtion with the standards of developed countries who import catfish and shrimp of Vietnam. For consumtion market, it needs to define clearly where and whom to sell the goods and science and eslected technologies have to be suitable for production process. On the other hand, supoort to production and development of aquaculture goods are indispensible. Developed countries till support farmers, but support needs to be under WTO regulation and rule. It needs to develop inftrastructure of transportation, irrigation; seek of consumtion markets; conduct science researches on education, health care, insurance, development of human resource, production skill, catfish and shrimp export business, but planning should be done in advance, before carrying out these works. 3.3. Fruit export Model of production of fruit for export is considered as a potential production model in Mekong Delta. This is a compititive advantage of fruit of Vietnam because in recent years, fruit product has found more and more oversea consumtion markets and its value increases year by year. However, deeper study showed that there are very few reseaches which deeply and comprehensively analyze and assess the production and business processes of this product under the context of Vietnam intergration into global economics. Many people say about and many papers mentioned this issue, but practice showed that research on varieties is not conducted with markets or science and technologies separate cultivation from protection or from shrinkage of arable land or from water unbalance and these all hinder development of this commodity The study team recommends a clear strategy for business and production of fruit for export in which clearly defined the key production direction, areas (attention to land and water), scale, fruit varieties and production itinerary from production of breed, cultivation, harvest, preservation, processing, transporting, consumtion with the standards of developed countries who import fruit of Vietnam. For consumtion market, it needs to define clearly where and whom to sell the goods and science and selected technologies have to be suitable for production. On the other hand, supoort to production and development of aquaculture goods are indispensible. Developed countries till support farmers, but support needs to be under WTO regulation and rule. It needs to develop inftrastructure of transportation, irrigation; seek of consumtion markets; conduct science researches on education, health care, insurance, 66 development of human resource, production skill, catfish and shrimp export business, but planning should be done in advance, before carrying out these works. conclusion Analysis and assessment of land and water which serve master socio-economic development planning for Mekong Delta are studied by many specialized agencies, but their research results till lack scinetific and realistic base which is necessary for current regional development planning. Since, WB has suported SDI in researching these two resources, aiming at providing satisfactory input for regional master socio-economic development planning. The research has ben implemented with participatory approach with application of appropriate toolkit. Results of analysis and assessment of the reviewed-adjusted-amended regional master plans to the year 2010, assessment of national and international context, especially indepth analysis and assessment of land and water resources, together with case studies on development of production of commodities for export based on utilization, management and development of land and water resources will provide input for Mekong Delta regional planning. The study was implemented based on the accurate information and data gathered from in country, region, and field surveys which are surely able to provide scientific and realistic input for development planning for Mekong Delta. Analysis and assessment of land and water resources in terms of change, reasons behind the change, quantity, quality, uitlization, management of these resources for sustainable socio- economic development. Especially, the study has focused on sustainability, inter-regional relation, intensive farming and production of agriculture goods for export with branch names. 67 Based on the above analysis and assessment, the study team has recommended concepts, objectives, criteria and indicators for regional master socio-economic development planning for Mekong Delta based on orientations of land and water resource utilization to the year 2020. At present, Prime Minister has assigned MPI to conduct regional master socio-economic development for six regions including Mekong Delta. Thus, study results will contribute importantly in improvement of quality and feasibility of regional master socio-economic development planning for Mekong Delta to the year 2020. With a few things, the study team is willing to bring a little contribution in renovation of development planning work in Vietnam. However, due to difficulties in research work and data updating, it is sure that the study is not able to avoid shortcommings and the study team would like to express greate thanks to comments on report for revision and completion of the report. Taking this greate oppoturnity, the study team would like to thank WB, DSI, especially scientific adviser Prof. Dr. Ngo Doan Vinh, Msc Nguyen Ngoc Anh, Director of South Water Resources Planning Institue, and Senior Expert Doan Hong Quang for their valuable contribution. Annex List of provinces in Mekong delta Provinces Unit 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Mekong Delta USD 306,5 432,2 479,4 533,2 600,2 672,2 Long An USD 324,8 434,7 478,4 527,8 594,3 675,7 Ä?ong Thap USD 263,3 361 395,3 460,2 530,6 615,0 An Giang USD 294,8 396,8 695,4 463,4 522,1 590,2 Tien Giang USD 296,9 397,2 719,7 478,2 535,4 590,4 Vinh Long USD 270,9 358,1 393,9 433,8 488,7 548,7 Ben Tre USD 280,2 380,9 342,5 456,8 508,0 555,5 Kien Giang USD 375,0 533,3 447,1 642,1 716,0 796,7 Can Tho USD 329,3 596,2 467,0 783,9 901,8 1028,3 Hau Giang USD - 367,9 282,2 446,2 496,1 557,3 Tra Vinh USD 257,3 358,7 543,0 467,3 526,4 576,0 Soc Trang USD 308,0 429,2 479,2 538,2 607,1 669,6 Bac Lieu USD 296,5 522,3 576,1 619,1 688,4 750,1 Ca Mau USD 359,4 519,1 570,3 676,3 749,2 839,0 Table 1: Average income per capita in Mekong Delta (USD/pers./year) 68 TT Land categories 2005 2010 Change (1000 Ha) ( 1000 Ha) (1000 Ha) Natural gross area 4.058,047 4058 0 1 Agriculture land 3.444,33 3377,1 - 67,23 2 Non-agriculture land 561,57 666,4 104,83 3 Unused land 52,142 14,5 - 37,642 Table 2.1. Water flow in Tan Chau, Chau Ä?oc and Vam Nao from 1990 to 2006 Location I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII T.Chau 6,351 4,145 2,571 2,201 3,203 7,181 12,579 18,671 20,339 19,153 14,968 10,100 C.Ä?oc 1,399 795 492 425 632 1,443 2,911 4,910 5,926 5,784 4,078 2,504 V.Nao 2,497 1,616 1,068 898 1,262 2,707 4,902 7,175 8,464 7,731 5,782 3,909 S.Tien 3,854 2,530 1,503 1,303 1,940 4,474 7,676 11,496 11,875 11,422 9,187 6,192 S.Hau 3,896 2,410 1,560 1,323 1,894 4,150 7,813 12,085 14,390 13,515 9,860 6,413 Total 7,750 4,940 3,063 2,626 3,834 8,624 15,489 23,581 26,265 24,937 19,047 12,605 Table 2: Status of land use implementation to the year 2010 Implemented in 2001 Implemented in 2005 Implemented in 2008 Objective Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value (Tone) (1000 USD) (Tone) (1000 USD) (Tone) (1000 USD) Rice 3,729,458 624,710 5,250,265 1,407,229 4,741,900 2,894,000 Table 2.4: Status and proposal for construction of dams in upper Mekong River basin Water amount Dam names Capacity (MW) (million cubic meter) Gonguoqiao 750 120 Xiaowan 4,200 9,800 Manwan* 1,500 258 Dachoshan* 1,350 240 Nuozhadu 5,500 12,400 Jing hong 1,500 230 Ganlanba 250 - Mengsong 600 - 69 Note: * Constructed dam Tµi liÖu tham kh¶o 1. 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