COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING ROUND 10 FEB 2021 Publication Date BACKGROUND NIGERIA In April 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), with support from the World Bank, launched the COVID - 19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (NLPS); a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,950 households to monitor the socioeconomic impact of the pandemic and other shocks. The first round (baseline) of the survey was conducted in April/May 2020, during which a federally mandated lockdown was in full effect. At the time of the tenth round of the NLPS – conducted February 6-22, 2021 – there were far fewer restrictions on activities and movement within the country. Even though COVID-19 case numbers had picked up in December 2020 and January 2021, this second wave was starting to wane by February 2021. Nevertheless, some key re- strictions – including on mass gatherings – remained in place. This brief presents the main findings from the tenth round of the Nigeria COVID-19 NLPS. The tenth round built on the fifth round of the NLPS (implemented in September 2020), by once again collecting employment in- formation from up to six working-age individuals (15-64 years) in the household rather than just the main re- spondent. This enables the individual- level analysis of people’s working situation to be updated. The tenth round also collected further information on people’s concerns about the COVID -19 crisis and their attitudes towards vaccinations: these metrics will be vital as efforts to immunize Nigeria’s population are carried out. SUMMARY  The share of working-age Nigerians who were second wave of COVID-19 cases in December working in February 2021 (70%) was only slightly 2020 and January 2021. lower than the share observed in September 2020  Around 65% of respondents reported being “very (72%), and much higher than the share observed in worried” about themselves or an immediate family January/February 2019 (64%); this heightened labor member becoming seriously ill with COVID-19, supply was driven especially by women. with concerns being more widespread amongst re-  The share of workers engaged in commerce was spondents in lower consumption quintiles. higher in February 2021 (37% of workers) than in  Some 83% of respondents reported that they September 2020 (26% of workers) and in January/ would agree to be vaccinated against COVID-19, February 2019 (27% of workers); this shift towards with respondents in lower consumption quintiles commerce was also concentrated among women. being the most willing to be vaccinated, although  The share of Nigerians deploying safe practices to overall willingness to be vaccinated declined slightly; prevent the spread of COVID-19 – including hand- messaging around vaccines and monitoring their washing and mask wearing – recovered in February uptake will be crucial for supporting efforts to im- 2021 compared to November 2020, following the munize Nigeria’s population. EMPLOYMENT The share of Nigerians who were working in February years) were working, only a little below the share 2021 was close to 70%. The data show that the share (72%) observed in September 2020, and higher than the of Nigerians who were working in February 2021 was share observed in January/February 2019 (64%). The only slightly lower than the share working in September share of people working in February 2021 was similar in 2020, and higher than the share working in January/ urban and rural areas. The fact that the share of Nigeri- February 2019. In previous years, the share of people ans working in February 2021 is higher than what was working fell significantly between the post-planting sea- observed before the pandemic may be due to “an add- son (around July to September) and the post-harvest ed worker” effect where households boost their over- season (around January to March). Yet in February all labor supply to cope with negative economic shocks. 2021, 70% of working-age Nigerians (those aged 15-64 1 https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING This figure inc ludes only 4,018 observations that represent indiv iduals from HHs with information for all rounds (GHS -W4, NLPS R5 and NLPS R10). The boost to labor supply was higher for women than than the share witnessed in January/February 2019. The for men. The share of women who were working was share of men who were working dropped from 78% to unchanged between September 2020 and February 74% between September 2020 and February 2021, 2021, while the share of men who were working once again higher than the share who were working in dropped slightly. Around 65% of women were working January/February 2019. in both September 2020 and February 2021, higher This figure inc ludes only 4,018 observations that represent indiv iduals from HHs with information for all rounds (GHS -W4, NLPS R5 and NLPS R10). Working situations have been most volatile for individ- February 2021. For individuals in the lowest consump- uals living in poorer households. For individuals in the tion quintile, however, the share of people working top consumption quintile, the share of people working jumped from 52% in January/February 2019 to 70% in has remained fairly stable, at 69% in January/February September 2020, but then dropped back to 63% in Feb- 2019, 67% in September 2020, and returning to 69% in ruary 2021. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 2 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING The share of workers engaged in commerce was much cline in the share of workers engaged in agriculture: higher in February 2021 compared to September 2020 non-agricultural sectors absorb those who continue to and compared to January/February 2019. In February work after the harvest is complete. The difference be- 2021, 37% of workers engaged in commerce, compared tween January/February 2019 and February 2021 is to 26% in September 2020 and 27% in January/February partly down to the share of workers engaged in agricul- 2019. This difference between September 2020 and ture declining slightly, but also due to the share of February 2021 is at least partially due to a seasonal de- workers engaged in industry almost halving. Note: Industry comprises ‘Mining & Manufacturing’, ‘Utilities’, and ‘Construction’. Services comprises ‘Services’, ‘Transport ’, and ‘Professional Activities’ . This figure includes only 4,018 observations that rep resent individuals from HHs with information for all rounds (GHS -W4, NLPS R5 and NLPS R10). Much of the increase in the share of workers engaged Over the same period, the share of working women in commerce is driven by women. Between January/ engaged in commerce increased from 34% to 52%. Sim- February 2019 and February 2021, the share of working ilarly, much of the reduction in the share of workers men engaged in commerce increased from 20% to 22%. engaged in industry appears to be concentrated among women. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 3 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING Note: Industry comprises ‘Min ing & Manufacturin g’, ‘Utilities’, and ‘Construction’. Services comprises ‘Services’, ‘Transport ’, and ‘Professional Activities’ . This figure includes only 4,018 observations that represent individuals f rom HHs with information for all rounds (GHS -W4, NLPS R5 and NLPS R10). SAFE PRACTICES The share of Nigerians deploying safe practices to com- Around 76% of respondents reported wearing a mask bat the spread of COVID-19 recovered slightly be- when in public in February 2021, compared to 60% in tween November 2020 and February 2021. In February November 2020 and 72% in August 2020. This rebound 2021, 79% of respondents reported washing their hands in the use of practices to prevent the spread of COVID after being in public all or most of the time, compared -19 may be in response to the second wave of cases to 74% in November 2020 and 78% in August 2020. that hit Nigeria in December 2020 and January 2021. *This figure includes only 1,553 observations that represent HHs with information for June 2020, July 2020, August 2020, Nove mber 2020, and February 2021. CONCERNS Concern around becoming ill from COVID-19 is wide- were even more prevalent among poorer respondents: spread, especially among poorer Nigerians. Overall, 77% of those in the poorest consumption quintile re- 65% of respondents reported that they were “very ported being “very worried” about themselves or worried” about themselves or someone in their imme- someone in their immediate family becoming seriously diate family becoming seriously ill from COVID-19, and ill from COVID-19 compared to 54% of those in the a further 9% were “somewhat worried”. Concerns richest consumption quintile. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 4 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING VACCINES The vast majority of respondents report that they areas (78% of respondents), which may pose problems would agree to be vaccinated, although the share willing since – all other things equal – COVID-19 is more likely to be vaccinated has declined slightly. In February 2021, to spread in more densely populated towns and cities. 83% of respondents reported that they would agree to For those not willing to get vaccinated, seeing their reli- be vaccinated, compared to 86% in October 2020. gious leaders, family/friends, doctors/nurses, and com- Willingness to be vaccinated in February 2021 was high- munity leaders get vaccinated would increase their like- er in rural areas (85% of respondents) than in urban lihood of taking the vaccine. *This figure includes only 1,675 observations that represent HHs with information for October 2020 and February 2021. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 5 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING Poorer Nigerians are more willing than richer Nigerians and poor respondents in terms of concerns about be- to be vaccinated. About 98% of respondents in the coming ill with COVID-19. Given these findings, careful poorest consumption quintile reported that they would messaging around vaccines and the risks associated with agree to be vaccinated compared to 74% of those in the COVID-19, as well as collecting data to monitor vac- richest consumption quintile. As such, the differences cine uptake, will be crucial for supporting efforts to im- between rich and poor respondents in terms of willing- munize Nigeria’s population. ness to be vaccinated echo the differences between rich *This figure includes only 1,675 observations that represent HHs with information for October 2020 and February 2021 Data Notes: The Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 NLPS) 2020 Tenth Round was implemented by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in February 2021. These su r- veys are part of a World Bank global effort to support countries in their data collection efforts to moni- tor the impacts of COVID-19. World Bank teams from the Development Data Group and the Poverty and Equity Global Practice provided technical support. This surv ey is the tenth of a planned 12 rounds of the COVID-19 NLPS of households in Nigeria. 1,785 households from the baseline were contacted and 1,699 households, fully interviewed in the tenth round. These same households will be contacted in subsequent rounds of the COVID-19 NLPS. The data are representative at the national level and survey weights were calculated to adjust for non-response and under coverage. For further details on the data, visit http://www.worldbank.org/lsms-covid19 and https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria/brief/monitoring-covid-19-impact-on-nigerian-households For further details on COVID-19 in Nigeria, visit https://nigeria-coronavirus-response-data-hub-nbs-nigeria.hub.arcgis.com/ For details on the survey, contact Biyi Fafunmi (biyifafunmi@ nigeria nstat.gov.ng) and Tunde Adebisi (tundeadebisi@ nigeria nstat.gov.ng) 6