Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 55931-ET INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION COUNTRY ASSISTANCE STRATEGY PROGRESS REPORT FOR THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA September 28, 2010 Ethiopia Country Management Unit Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. The Country Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia was discussed on April 29, 2008 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS [US$1.00 = Ethiopian Birr 13.5 (July 2010)] FISCAL YEAR July 8 ­ July 7 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AAA Analytic and Advisory Activities MDGs Millennium Development Goals AfDB African Development Bank MEFF Macroeconomic and Fiscal Framework AGP Agricultural Growth Project MoE Ministry of Education APL Adaptable Program Loan MoFED Ministry of Finance and Economic Development CAS Country Assistance Strategy MoH Ministry of Health CASPR Country Assistance Strategy Progress Report MOU Memorandum of Understanding CIC Credit Information Center MoWUD Ministry of Works and Urban Development CIDA Canadian International Development Agency NAFP National Adaptation Framework Program COM Country Operations manager NAPA National Adaptation Plan of Action CSO Civil Society Organization NBE National Bank of Ethiopia DAC Development Assistance Committee NBI Nile Basin Initiative DAG Development Assistance Group NEPAD New Partnership for Africa's Development DCI Domestic Construction Industry OBA Output Based Aid DFID Department for International Development OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and EC European Commission Development EFA Education For All OFAG Office of the Federal Auditor General EIB European Investment Bank PASDEP Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development ETB Ethiopian Birr to End Poverty (2005-2010) FAO Food and Agriculture Organization PBS Protection of Basic Services FDI Foreign Direct Investment PCDP Pastoral Community Development Program FPEW Flood Preparedness and Early Warning PPD Public-Private Dialogue FTI Fast Track Initiative PRSC Poverty Reduction Support Credit FY Fiscal Year PSCAP Public Sector Capacity Building Program GDP Gross Domestic Product PSNP Productive Safety Nets Program GEF Global Environment Facility PTA Parent-Teacher Association GEQIP General Education Quality Improvement RCBP Rural Capacity Building Project Program REDFS Rural Economic Development and Food Security GFRP Global Food Crisis Response Program SIDA Swedish International Development Cooperation GoE Government of Ethiopia Agency GPOBA Global Partnership on Output-Based Aid SIL Specific Investment Loan GTP Growth and Transformation Plan (2010-2015) SLMP Sustainable Land Management Project GTZ German Agency for Technical Cooperation SNNPR Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' ICA Investment Climate Assessment Region ICT Information and Communication Technologies SWAp Sector-Wide Approach IDA International Development Association TA Technical Assistance IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development TF Trust Fund IFC International Finance Corporation UNDP United Nations Development Program IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute UNFPA united Nations Population Fund IFRS International Financial Reporting Standards UNICEF United Nations International Children's Fund IHP International Health Partnership UNIDO United National Industrial Development IMF International Monetary Fund Organization ISA International Standards of Auditing USAID United States Agency for International JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency Development Kebele Village level council Woreda District with elected council LIG Local Investment Grant WCBS Woreda-City Benchmarking Survey M&E Monitoring and Evaluation WFP World Food Program MAP Multi-sectoral HIV/AIDS Program WHO World Health Organization Vice President: Obiageli Ezekwesili Country Director: Kenichi Ohashi Task Team Leader: Greg Toulmin Co-TTL Janet Entwistle FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA COUNTRY ASSISTANCE STRATEGY PROGRESS REPORT Table of Contents I. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 1 II. ECONOMIC AND POLICY DEVELOPMENTS ................................................ 1 III. CAS PROGRESS IMPLEMENTATION AND PROPOSED ADJUSTMENTS . 4 a. Assessment of CAS Progress To-Date ............................................................... 4 b. Portfolio Performance and Implementation ....................................................... 7 c. Adjustments to the CAS Program .................................................................... 11 IV. STRATEGY GOING FORWARD: FUTURE BANK ENGAGEMENT .......... 14 V. RISKS AND MITIGATION ............................................................................... 17 TABLES AND BOXES Table 1. Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, 2005-2013 ............................................. 2 Table 2. Revised CAS Lending Program, FY08-12 ..................................................... 12 Box 1. IDA Core Indicators ......................................................................................... 9 ANNEXES Annex 1. CAS Results Matrix and Progress To-Date ................................................. 19 Annex 2. Revised Core CAS Outcomes, Indicators and Milestones .......................... 31 Annex 3: Summary of Revised Core CAS Outcomes ................................................. 33 Annex 4. Progress Towards Achieving the MDGs ..................................................... 34 Annex 5. Ethiopia at a Glance ..................................................................................... 35 Annex 6. Selected Indicators of Bank Portfolio Performance .................................... 37 Annex 7. Summary of Non-Lending Services ............................................................ 38 Annex 8. Key Economic Indicators ............................................................................ 39 Annex 9. Key Social Indicators................................................................................... 41 Annex 10. Key Exposure Indicators............................................................................. 42 Annex 11. Operations Portfolio ................................................................................... 43 Annex 12. Trust Fund Portfolio ................................................................................... 44 Annex 13. IFC Program and Portfolio ......................................................................... 45 Map FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA I. INTRODUCTION 1. The Board of Executive Directors discussed the FY08-11 Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) for Ethiopia on April 29, 2008 (Report No. 43051-ET). The CAS, the first results-based strategy for Ethiopia, supports the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) to achieve many of the outcomes envisioned in its 2005-10 Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP). This CAS Progress Report (CASPR) takes stock of the implementation progress made under the CAS, and presents a revised program. It extends the CAS to FY12 due to slower than expected progress toward CAS outcomes, and to allow sufficient time to undertake poverty diagnostics and prepare a full CAS program, in collaboration with the GoE, to support agreed priorities within its 2010-15 Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP). This extension will also ensure the new CAS can fully reflect the priorities specified under IDA 16, and in the Bank's Africa Region forthcoming strategy. 2. The key objectives of the CAS were designed to sustain a dual take-off process of rapid economic growth and a simultaneous improvement in service delivery, as well as to reinforce trends promoting societal change. These objectives, (i) fostering economic growth, (ii) improving access to and quality of basic services, (iii) reducing vulnerability, and (iv) fostering improved governance, remain broadly relevant, and in alignment with the country objectives in PASDEP. During CAS implementation, the program has emphasized, across these four objectives, help for Ethiopia to address the deeper and complex issue of encouraging bottom-up initiatives that are becoming increasingly necessary as a complement to traditionally strong top-down action. 3. Some adjustments to the lending program have been instrumental in helping to mitigate shocks related to the food, fuel and finance crises of recent years. To help avoid a possible crisis due to drought and food shortages, the lending program was adapted in November 2008 to include an emergency food crisis response program. This addition was facilitated by a larger International Development Association (IDA) 15 allocation than programmed in FY08, frontloading, and a portfolio restructuring which also helped to enhance portfolio performance. The significant differences of views between the government and the Bank on some longstanding, structural issues mean that the conditions for a possible Poverty Reduction Support Credit (PRSC) have not yet materialized and the program has comprised sector investments, a large part of which are programmatic in nature and supported by other donors, and analytical and advisory activities (AAA). Additional financing has proved an efficient lending instrument, and enabled some operations to be prepared more rapidly than originally programmed to help mitigate the effects of the global crises. The FY11 and FY12 programs will continue to support the dual take-off process through new lending, including through piloting results based investment lending, implementation support and AAA. In light of frontloading, new lending in FY11 will be lower than the earlier years of the CAS period and in FY12 will be subject to the IDA16 replenishment and allocation process. II. ECONOMIC AND POLICY DEVELOPMENTS 4. Ethiopia has a long history of rich civilization that has coexisted with suffering from recurring disasters. In the last two decades, Ethiopia has achieved remarkable progress against social and economic indicators. The country is on track to achieve, or come close to, many of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The economy has diversified significantly and 1 delivered sustained rapid growth for the past six years, even through the global financial crisis. Yet, there is a sense of imbalance in this progress. Successful economies bring together private sector initiative complemented by effective delivery by government. However, progress in decentralizing social sector service delivery has not yet been matched by equivalent progress in social accountability for services, and strong expansion of public investment has not been mirrored by vigorous growth in private investment. These divergent trends might stem from the many years of highly centralized rule, as well as the planned economy, that Ethiopia had experienced. 5. Ethiopia macroeconomic situation deteriorated dramatically after the onset of the global economic crisis and despite a steady recovery in recent months, the situation remains fragile. Ethiopia's end-of-period inflation rate, which generally hovers in single-digit number, increased to 64 percent in July 2008. Its foreign exchange reserves fell steadily over time to hit a bottom of less than $770 million (or less than 4 weeks of imports cover) by October 2008. The government was forced to depreciate the local currency by nearly 30 percent between January 2009 and August 2009 to address the overvaluation of the real exchange rate. The situation started to turnaround as global economic recovery resumed and the GoE stabilization program, supported by the IMF's Exogenous Shock Facility, started to bear fruit. The end of period inflation fell steadily and remains stable in the range of 6-8 percent in recent months. Foreign exchange reserves have been accumulated to provide more than two months of import cover. But problems remain. Major distortions and structural impediments to growth remain to be tackled. According to the IMF, monetary policy is dysfunctional and the exchange regime is heavily distorted with an active parallel market. Table 1 provides a summary of selected macroeconomic indicators. Table 1. Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, 2005-2013 Source: IMF 6. Although Ethiopia did overcome the food, fuel and finance crisis, the food crisis in 2008 proved to be broader, deeper and more complex than in other countries. In 2008 Ethiopia experienced the failure of the small (belg) season rains, high inflation for food, in particular, which peaked at 91.7 percent for the 12 months ending July 2008, as well as a high trade deficit and severe foreign exchange shortages. Towards the end of the year 6.4 million people were dependent on emergency food assistance, in addition to 7.3 million chronically food insecure people. The macro-economic situation threatened overall economic development, 2 including through the foreign exchange crunch that threatened the import of commodities such as fertilizers that are crucial for further development. 7. Ethiopia's external position has improved but remains fragile. Merchandise exports fell only 1.0 percent during FY09 compared to the global average decline of 14 percent. In the first 7 months of FY10, exports increased 11 percent and with the increase in imports, the current account deficit, excluding grants, worsened from 10 to 13 percent of GDP. Previously dwindling foreign exchange reserves have recovered to about 2 months on import coverage. The growth rates of exports, private transfers and foreign direct investment have yet to reach their pre-crisis levels. Despite an improved reserve situation, and 30 percent depreciation of the currency, persistent shortages of foreign exchange are a severe constraint on the private sector, and an active parallel market persists, reflecting a restrictive exchange regime. 8. There remains a large divergence between the growth of overall demand and relative weakness in growth of supply. This shows up in the trade deficit and persistently high non-food inflation. To curb rapid growth of aggregate demand, the government has imposed limits on bank lending, which has reduced access to credit and compounded the worrisome demonetization trend since 2002. 9. Significant macroeconomic challenges remain and key structural changes are needed to protect the high growth rate. A 14-month arrangement under the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) High Access Component of the Exogenous Shocks Facility was approved in August 2009 for US$235 million and the first review was completed in June 2010. IMF forecasts indicate continued strong growth of 7 percent for 2009/10 and 7.7 percent for 2010/11. But achieving this pace in the medium-term would require stepped up structural changes, including a reform of monetary policy, a liberalization of the exchange regime, more room for private sector development and a better investment climate, a more flexible industrial policy, modernization of the financial sector, creation of a competitive telecommunications sector and establishment of a transparent and effective system of land development and administration. Ethiopia's continuing vulnerability, to both climatic and external economic or financial shocks, makes the need for a robust macroeconomic stance all the more compelling. 10. Ethiopia is making significant progress on all the MDGs. It is projected to be one of the few African countries on track to meet goals relating to extreme poverty and hunger. However, a significant portion of the population is still chronically food insecure and food security remains a key challenge. Ethiopia is also on track to meet the goals on combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases (with the exception of TB), and developing a global partnership for development. Good progress is also being made towards universal primary education, reducing child mortality and ensuring environmental sustainability. Ethiopia is likely to fall short, as of 2015, on the targets for eliminating gender disparity in education and improving maternal health in spite of major efforts in these areas. 11. Ethiopia has a mixed track record in improving governance. Regional and woreda administrations are becoming increasingly influential as their capacity strengthens. However, at the federal level, there have been continuing concerns that the space for debate has narrowed, particularly for civil society organizations (CSOs), the media, and the opposition groups. The May 2010 elections resulted in the ruling party winning a near complete sweep with it and its affiliate parties securing all but two of the parliamentary seats. The 2009 Proclamation for the Registration and Regulation of Charities and Societies, provided the first clear framework for such organizations, but also restricted the operations of CSOs, particularly excluding those receiving more than 10 percent of funding from external sources from some areas of activity, 3 such as advocacy on human rights, gender or ethnic equality, conflict resolution, the strengthening of judicial practices or law enforcement, which areas the GoE considers internal issues open only to Ethiopian citizens. Recently GoE revised the federal procurement law to improve the structures for procurement management. However, enforcement of the procurement law continues to be weak and largely ineffective, mainly due to inadequate remuneration and incentives. The procurement oversight bodies both at the federal and regional levels remain undermanned and cannot attract and retain qualified and experienced staff. Ethiopia's recent bid to become a member of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) is encouraging, though its membership status is pending. 12. Policies and commitments related to gender are in place, but implementation is lagging due to poor institutional capacity. Several challenges still remain to strengthen the effectiveness of gender work at all levels of government. These include weak networking among institutions meant to ensure gender equality, inadequate mainstreaming of gender in all development programs and their implementation strategies, and absence of reporting system among government and non-government actors working on women thus weakening accountability for achievement of gender equitable results. 13. Ethiopia confronts the challenge of being one of the countries in Africa potentially most vulnerable to future climatic changes. Existing climatic variability already hampers growth through extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. However, given its large potential in renewable energy, Ethiopia can lead the way - within Africa and the developing world - in promoting low or neutral carbon growth. At the global level, GoE has taken a leadership role among African countries in international negotiations on the future climate governance framework. Domestically, GoE has, as a first step, established institutional mechanisms to ensure the climate change agenda is pursued in a coordinated but decentralized manner. It has an approved National Adaptation Framework Program (NAFP), covering 20 vulnerable sectors, and a National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) including 83 concrete projects that have been registered with the UNFCCC Secretariat in line with the Copenhagen Accord. GoE has also begun development of a National Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (NCCSAP), which will elaborate on the transfer of environmentally sound mitigation and adaptation technology needed for carbon resiliency. Key policies and regulatory frameworks related to environmental sustainability are in place, including the 2008 Ethiopian Sustainable Investment Framework (ESIF) for sustainable land management (SLM), a long-term strategy for SLM, which seeks to provide guidance in addressing the interlinked problems of poverty, ecological vulnerability, land degradation and deforestation at the rural community level. Enforcement has been weak as a result of institutional capacity constraints, including weak political will and lack of space for active citizenry involvement. III. CAS PROGRESS, IMPLEMENTATION AND PROPOSED ADJUSTMENTS A. Assessment of CAS Progress To-Date 14. Progress in FY08-10 towards CAS outcomes has been mixed. Mixed progress is partly a reflection of the relatively ambitious selection of outcomes, many of which are drawn directly from the PASDEP given the programmatic nature of the Bank's assistance, as well as portfolio implementation challenges and country realities. See Annex 1 for details including an update of progress where information is available. 15. The Government has made remarkable strides in strengthening the essential building blocks for sustained development supported by the CAS. There has been relatively 4 strong progress in increasing access to basic services in an equitable manner. There has also been strong progress in overcoming food insecurity and building a transport, energy, and communication backbone that is a pre-condition for economic take-off. Progress has been particularly strong in increasing access to potable water, sanitation and health services, although access to services has taken priority over increasing their quality. 16. The Government has also made progress toward other CAS objectives such as investments in infrastructure and decentralization initiatives that could facilitate a well-functioning market economy and improve governance. It has not been easy, however, for the Government to overcome the deep-rooted legacy of central control, tightly managed information, and constricted space for citizen engagement and private initiatives. In its economic policy, the Government has focused on creating good infrastructure and providing public support for strategic sectors but has done less to strengthen the private sector. In its decentralization program, the Government has emphasized greater transparency, accountability and citizen participation as the foundation for improved governance and better service delivery, but progress has been slow. As Ethiopia becomes a more complex society and economy, in an increasingly challenging global environment, it will be progressively more difficult to drive forward the economy largely through government interventions. The ability of Ethiopia's citizens and businesses to access accurate information and organize to respond to developments will be an increasingly important determinant of the country's resilience and competitiveness. A.1 Fostering Economic Growth 17. Progress has been mixed toward a key objective of the CAS of supporting structural and macroeconomic policies that are conducive to sustain internal and external balance. The Bank supported the IMF's lead in providing crucial policy advice on improving macroeconomic management that has contributed to reducing inflation and reducing imbalances. The tax policy and administration reforms, vital to reducing the demand on domestic monetary financing, are beginning to show some promising results with tax revenue to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) improving in 2009/10 ­ the only annual improvement in the last seven years. Domestic fuel subsidies were eliminated in October 2008. Monetary policy has been tightened, though a fundamental reform is needed to contain high powered liquidity and abolish the deleterious bank-by-bank credit ceilings. The Bank has, however, not yet been successful in reaching agreement with GoE on how to advance structural changes in such areas as creating competitive financial and telecommunications sectors and hence the progress on CAS outcomes in these areas remain less than satisfactory. 18. Progress has been strong toward the CAS objective of sustainably accelerating the level and productivity of infrastructure. Strong government commitment and capacity building efforts supported by a series of Bank Adaptable Program Loans (APL) are leading to strengthened road sector institutions and increasing contracts for the domestic road construction industry. The level of investment in road infrastructure is high and road density and disbursements to domestic contractors as a percentage of the total are increasing. Regional power initiatives are proceeding well. With support from the Nile Basin Initiative-Ethiopia- Sudan Interconnection project, a transmission line link with Sudan is near completion. 19. With Bank support, the government has put in place a number of factors that are expected to lead to increased agricultural productivity. GoE has strengthened the agricultural extension and research system. It has also increased the first of two phases of certification of cultivated land from 44 percent in 2007 to 66 percent in 2009. The development of irrigation has been further promoted. For instance, feasibility studies covering 104,000 ha. are in the pipeline 5 or have been drafted. Improvements have already led to increases in agriculture production and value in some areas. The Rural Capacity Building, Sustainable Land Management and Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources Development projects contributed to these achievements, including through the development of sustainable watershed management plans with strong community participation. 20. There has been some progress supported by the Bank toward improving the environment for private sector development, but much remains to be done. Together with the International Finance Corporation (IFC), United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry, the Bank supported the establishment of the Ethiopia Public-Private Dialogue Forum. This Forum brings together representatives of the private sector in a structured dialogue with the Government to improve the business environment. Already, Ethiopia's Doing Business Rank has improved slightly to 107 out of 183 in 2010 from 111 out of 181 in 2009; it is anticipated that the Forum will provide a stimulus to accelerated reforms. There have been some other signs that GoE is opening space for expanded private sector involvement in economic growth. For instance, while not allowing private sector ownership in telecommunications, GoE awarded the management of the Ethiopian Telecommunication Corporation in April 2010 through a competitive process to an international management company (France Telecom). GoE has provided incentives for private sector investment in select industries including floriculture. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has increased substantially, from US$365 million in 2005/06 to about US$880 million in 2008/09, largely due to GoE incentives tied to large scale commercial agriculture for export--however, GoE has not sought our support in the latter area, nor have we analyzed it in any detail. According to Investing Across Borders foreign equity ownership restrictions are above the average for other sub-Saharan African countries, and FDI is prohibited in 13 sectors, including telecommunications, financial services, transportation and retail. Progress over the next two years will be critical to the establishment of a flexible economic and industrial policy, including the implementation of National Payments Systems and the Credit Information Center (CIC), a Competition Law, and legislation allowing the private sector to participate in value-added telecommunications services. A.2. Improving Access to and Quality of Basic Services 21. Access to primary education increased dramatically in the years prior to the CAS, but girls' access to education continues to lag, and progress on quality improvements is mixed but promising. There has been some progress on equal access to primary education as measured by the ratio of girls to boys, but girls' enrollment still lags. This continues to be an area of key Bank focus given the abundant research on the singular importance of a mother's educational background in reducing infant and child mortality, reducing fertility and improving school attendance for girls. The Pastoral Community Development program is helping to address the special needs of pastoralist children, and is reaching an increasing number of woredas. Nonetheless, efforts need to be expanded, including through the use of block grants under the Protection of Basic Services Program (PBS), for the pace of girls' enrollment to improve. With Bank support, GoE has embarked on the General Education Quality Improvement Program which is at an early stage of implementation. Quality of education is improving as measured by the Grade Five completion rates, and student-teacher ratios have slightly improved, although inadequate resource availability is hindering faster progress in this area. 22. Organization of user groups to operate and maintain water points and promote hygiene is leading to an increase in access to potable water and sanitation. The Bank- financed Water Supply and Sanitation Program has bolstered GoE commitment to a 6 decentralized capacity building system which has led to improvements in water and sanitation services. Communities participating in this program are organized to plan, manage and operate their water supply and sanitation schemes, and coordinate with health extension workers to promote good hygiene. Nonetheless, implementation pace is slower than expected and there is more to be done to strengthen capacity in the rural areas and public awareness about good sanitation practices. 23. Access to health care is improving through a clear vision, sound strategy and strong leadership and there are some signs of quality improvements. But progress in some areas is falling short of targets, and data is not yet available in other areas. Through the PBS 2 program, the government has increased block grants to regions and woredas every year, enabling the purchase of medical equipment and supplies, an increase in the number of primary health extension workers, and strong progress in increasing immunizations. Ethiopia has been making an extensive effort to control malaria through implementation of a malaria control and elimination strategy, but data is not yet available to measure progress since the CAS baseline. The HIV/AIDS awareness program has supported woredas to carry out information campaigns to sensitize the target groups. Data is expected to be available to assess progress in FY11. Overall, access to maternal health services has not increased as much as expected, through the percentage of pregnant women receiving iron and folate supplementation is on track. Maternal mortality continues to be high, but there are signs that the quality of services in this area is improving, although probably not enough for Ethiopia to reach the MDG on improving maternal health. A.3. Reducing Vulnerability 24. Ethiopia's vulnerability to adverse weather remains significant, and possibly more so as the effects of climate change become more pronounced. The Bank has supported GoE to put in place a number of measures to help reduce Ethiopia's vulnerability to shocks. Under the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), a long-term program for food security has been developed and a National Policy and Strategy on Disaster Risk Management, essential in light of the potential impacts of climate change, has been prepared and is pending ratification. PSNP also provides food and cash payments to food-insecure households in exchange for their efforts on community projects. The Bank has helped integrate this effort with a long-standing government-managed household asset building program designed to support food-insecure households by increasing their productive assets. And rural food security has improved with the introduction of alternative crops and financial support to expand non-farm income. Notwithstanding these important achievements in reducing rural food insecurity, urban food security has become a growing concern and inadequate benchmarks and follow-up data availability have delayed graduation of beneficiaries. Bank support has also helped the GoE address land degradation. Through the Sustainable Land Management and Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources Development projects, institutions for sustainable land management have been established and investment in community based flood management systems is rising. Information on progress toward Bank supported measures to address population growth, a main driver of land degradation, is pending the forthcoming Demographic Health Survey. A.4. Fostering Improved Governance 25. Progress has been made toward improving the performance and integrity of the public sector. Business process reengineering has been adopted across GoE, including in the judicial sector, to eliminate excessive steps that added no value to the user and streamline work processes, though progress has been marred by allegations that political affiliation influenced which civil servants were retained or promoted. Public Financial Management is showing 7 improvement with the roll out of expenditure management and control reforms, and capacity building efforts underway to ensure continuous enhancement and sustainability. The most recent Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) study (2010) showed an improvement in 9 out of 30 indicators covered. The strengthening of the public procurement agencies, including the setting up of a procurement professional institution, is making slow progress, with Bank support available through the PBS 2 project and PSCAP Additional Financing. The GoE has put in place policies to support local transparency and citizen engagement at the woreda/kebele level, and there are indications of increased local government commitment to provide more information to citizens and solicit their opinions more frequently, although budget literacy among citizens needs greater attention. Balanced score cards are being rolled out as a tool to encourage a results focus in public sector management--but they remain a work in progress. There is some evidence of citizen engagement in budgeting at the woreda level. At the city level, there has been an increase in citizen involvement in planning, budgeting and monitoring. A.5. Increasing Donor Harmonization through IDA-supported Multi-donor Programs 26. Donor support, including from IDA, has become largely programmatic. Both CAS targets in this area have been achieved. The target that 66 percent of donor support be channeled through program-based approaches was achieved in FY07 as reported through the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)/Development Assistance Committee (DAC)-coordinated survey on monitoring the Paris Declaration. At that time, the Bank's programmatic assistance extended to five programs--roads, protection of basic services, public sector capacity building, water supply and sanitation and productive safety nets--which accounted for 58 percent of IDA disbursements. Since then the Bank has continued to increase its support for programmatic approaches through lending, and now includes three other areas: energy and education sector development programs, and the sustainable land management program. The agricultural growth program, awaiting approval, is designed on a similar basis. The target that 66 percent of IDA disbursements flow through program-based approaches was surpassed in FY10 when over 80 percent of IDA assistance flowed through the eight approved programs. B. Portfolio Performance and Implementation 27. Portfolio restructuring and actions to address portfolio issues have led to improved performance. Portfolio performance has been strong following deterioration between end-FY08 and mid-FY09. As of the end of FY10, US$2,530.1 million of the US$4,703.4 million in net investment lending commitments have been disbursed. Four out of 32 projects and 9.2 percent of net commitments are considered at risk. Disbursements for the US$833 million trust fund portfolio have been strong, with only US$222 million remaining undisbursed. 8 Box 1. IDA CORE SECTOR INDICATORS Core Sector Indicators of progress towards key results, linked to the MDGs, which were introduced under IDA15, have been rolled out across IDA's portfolio in Ethiopia. The following figures provide a brief snapshot of preliminary results achieved through IDA programs that were active in the period of the current CAS. Sector Indicator FY08-10 Primary completion rate From 65% in 2006/07 to 78.90% in 2008/09. Education: Grades 1-4: 89% 2006/07 to 90% in 2008/09. Gender parity index Grades 5-8 73%; in 2006/07 to 89% in 2008/09. Long-lasting insecticide- treated malaria nets 1.7 million ITNs were purchased and (ITNs) were purchased distributed. Health: and/or distributed Health facilities 7,000 health posts and 1,999 health centers constructed, renovated were equipped (out of respective totals of and/or equipped 15,022 and 3,200). People provided with 1.5 million people in rural areas and 150,000 access to improved water in urban areas have been provided with access sources to improved water sources from 2004 to 2010. Improved community 138,873 improved community water points Water Supply: water points constructed were constructed or rehabilitated 2008 to or rehabilitated 2010. Water utilities receiving 38 water utilities are receiving support. support Federal Paved: 71% to 88% between 2005/10. Roads in good and fair Federal Gravel: 61% to 72% between 2005/10. Roads and condition as a share of total classified roads Rural/regional roads: 67 to 79% between Highways: 2005/10. Rural Roads Rehabilitated 42,417 km of rural roads rehabilitated. Rural Roads Constructed 23,736 km of rural roads were constructed. The monthly cost for an internet connection Retail price of internet ICT: (incl 600 minutes) went from US$4.32 to services US$2.88. 28. A November 2008 portfolio restructuring not only freed up funds for the Global Food Crisis Response Program (GFRP), but also focused on addressing problem projects. This operation was by far the largest under GFRP--see paragraph 33 below--and covered 12 projects, from which funds were redeployed based either on cost savings, revised financing plans or major restructurings. Seven of the 12 projects affected were among the slower disbursing projects in the portfolio, including all four projects that underwent a major restructuring. The combined result was a disbursement ratio of 49 percent in FY09 and 36 percent in FY10. 9 29. IDA core sector indicators were introduced as of the beginning of FY10, and adopted as relevant across the portfolio--into new lending and projects already under implementation. Box 1 above provides a sample of progress against these indicators. 30. Efforts to improve the portfolio remain concentrated in four areas highlighted in the CAS. A portfolio review was undertaken in FY09 to take stock of progress in addressing these portfolio management issues: (1) transparency and accountability, (2) procurement and contract execution delays, (3) financial management weaknesses, and (4) weak monitoring and evaluation and results frameworks. A follow-up portfolio review is planned for FY11 to take stock of progress and agree on further action. On transparency and accountability, progress has been mixed. There has been concern about the possible, indirect impact of the federal Proclamation for Charities and Societies on social accountability initiatives. However, operationally the Bank has continued to ensure progress. For example, for PBS 2 accountability and fairness make up one of the four main principles against which progress is being reviewed. In addition, the Bank and other donors have ensured that programs have mechanisms to monitor for any systemic distortion of access to project benefits, for political gain, and are working with the GoE on ways further to strengthen these mechanisms. The Bank is concentrating its efforts on four key areas of procurement weakness that contribute to persistent procurement and contract execution delays: borrow readiness to begin project implementation following financing approval, capacity enhancement, communication and prior reviews. Progress is slow and has been compounded by difficulties in recruiting Procurement Officers, but overall communication with project executing agencies has improved as internet connectivity increases. A rise in the maximum prior review and International Competitive Bidding thresholds represents a shift of responsibility to GoE for processing most contracts. Already significant progress has been made in following up on some key recommendations to improve financial management, including a move from manual to computerized systems at the federal level for Bank-financed projects channeled through Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MOFED), recruitment of roving accountants and intensive training of accountants to build project management capacity and of Office of the Federal Auditor General (OFAG) and Audit Services Corporation auditors, which audit about 90 percent of Bank financed projects. Internal audit training is planned for FY11. Very little progress has been made toward improving the timely submission of withdrawal applications. As a critical step in improving weak Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) and results frameworks, an M&E workshop for Bank Task Team Leaders and government counterparts, followed by project clinics to address specific challenges in implementing and reporting on project M&E, is planned for FY11. 31. Recently, the Bank has also begun enhanced and joint supervision of financial management under large multi-donor programmatic investments. Enhancements are designed to help prevent loss of project resources, including by providing a system for full supervision coverage at the federal, regional and woreda levels. This enhanced financial management supervision ensures better sharing of knowledge among donors on financial management issues and coherent and efficient dialogue with GoE. 10 C. Adjustments to the CAS Program 32. The FY08-10 CAS program continued to be aligned with the PASDEP objectives which have remained unchanged through CAS implementation. Changes largely facilitated GoE's progress toward its objectives, and larger than programmed resource availability. In addition, in FY10 the Bank began tracking relevant IDA core indicators for new lending approvals and projects under implementation. 33. An IDA 15 allocation that was larger than foreseen, and also front loaded, supported a lending volume greater than that presented in the CAS. The CAS was prepared before IDA15 had been allocated and thus included only indicative future commitments, based on an IDA14 allocation of US$1.875 billion. However, the IDA15 replenishment, coupled with no changes in Ethiopia's overall Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), resulted in an allocation equivalent to about US$2.5 billion for FY09-11, some 80 percent of which has been committed in FY09 and FY10. The Government requested frontloading of the program to help meet its external financing needs and sustain overall macro-economic performance. 34. The Bank also responded rapidly to GoE's request to help mitigate a looming food crisis in FY09. To help Ethiopia avoid a crisis due to drought and food shortages, in November 2008 the Bank added support for an emergency food crisis response program. Under this program, two IDA credits were approved: additional financing for the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), which supported food and cash assistance to food-insecure households, and a Fertilizer Support Project providing foreign exchange to support the import, distribution and sale of fertilizer. These credits were financed in part through portfolio restructuring, under the terms of the GFRP, which allowed the reallocation of US$137.5 million. 35. The program has comprised sector investments most of which were planned in the CAS, with the exception noted above and a few other additions. In the absence of agreement with GoE on significant changes in structural policies, the economic conditions for a PRSC have not materialized. The program of investments anticipated in FY08 and FY09 went forward largely as planned, with some upward adjustments in program size to accommodate financing needs and the addition of a regional agriculture program reflecting the Africa Region's growing commitment to regional initiatives. For FY10, additional financing has been favored as the most efficient lending instrument instead of the new operations that had been programmed for public sector capacity building, roads, and water supply and sanitation, and enabled expedited preparation to bring the latter forward from FY11. The prospective project for rural development was renamed the Agriculture Growth Program to reflect its emphasis on growth as an essential complement to ongoing efforts targeted directly at food insecure households, and has been postponed to FY11. Additional private sector development support has been delayed because the existing project has progressed more slowly than expected. Additional financing for the electricity access expansion project was added to better support distribution networks in urban areas. Table 2 provides a detailed comparison of the original CAS Program, actual commitments, and the indicative program for FY11. 11 Table 2: Revised CAS Lending Program, FY08-11 (Actual or Indicative) See Paragraph 45 for discussion of the proposed FY12 lending program. Original CAS Lending Program (US$ M) CAS Progress Report Lending Program (US$ M) FY08 FY08 Actual Rural Electricity Access Expansion 2 $133.5 Rural Electricity Access Expansion 2 $133.5 Protection of Basic Services Add. Financing 215 Protection of Basic Services Add. Financing 215 Ethiopia/NBI Power Export: Ethiopia/Sudan 41 Ethiopia/NBI Power Export: Ethiopia/Sudan 41 Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources 45 Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources 45 Urban Local Government Development 100 Urban Local Government Development 150 Sustainable Land Management 20 Sustainable Land Management 20 Nutrition 30 Nutrition 30 Pastoral Community Development 2 50 Pastoral Community Development 2 80 Total FY08 $634.5 Total FY08 $714.5 FY09 FY09 Actual Protection of Basic Services 2 Protection of Basic Services 2 $540 General Education Quality Improvement General Education Quality Improvement 50 Sustainable Tourism Sustainable Tourism 35 Roads Adaptable Program Loan APL 4 Roads APL 4 245 East Africa Agriculture Program** 30 Global Food Crisis Response Program: Fertilizer Support Project 250 Productive Safety Net APL 2 AF 25 Restructuring ($137.5) Total FY09 $635* Total FY09 $1,037.5 FY10 FY10 Actual Productive Safety Net Program APL 3 Productive Safety Net Program APL 3 $480 Rural Electricity Access Expansion 3 Electricity Access Expansion Add. Financing 180 Rural Development Public Sector Capacity Building Program AF 50 PSD Support Water Supply and Sanitation Add. Financing 80 Public Sector Capacity Building Program Roads APL2 Additional Financing 100 Total FY10 $635* Total FY10 $890 FY11 FY11 Indicative Power/Ethiopia Kenya Interconnector Agricultural Growth Program $150 Water Supply and Sanitation Protection of Basic Services 2 Add. Financing $340 Sustainable Land Management 2 Pastoral Community Development 3 Roads APL 5 Possible PRSC Total FY11 $635* Total FY11 $490 Total Lending FY08 ­ FY11 $2,539.5 Total Lending FY08 ­ FY11 $3,132 * Indicative IDA 15 amount based on FY08 IDA allocation. ** Regional program. Includes $86.5 million allocated from the Crisis Response Window. "tbd" to be determined. 12 37. As anticipated in the CAS, the lending program is shifting towards investments that are programmatic in nature, results based and include multiple donors. All lending in FY10 supported one of the eight comprehensive government results-based, multi-donor programs described in paragraph 26. In comparison, about half of the investments approved in FY08 and FY09 were programmatic, results based and multi-donor in nature (PBS, General Education Quality Improvement Program (GEQIP), Roads, PSNP, Rural Electrification, and Sustainable Land Management). These programs help facilitate coherent dialogue that focuses on results on program implementation and important policy issues, including capacity development, and reduces transaction costs for GoE by providing an efficient platform for dialogue. They have served as models to other countries seeking to apply a results-based approach and have been important inputs into the discussions around the design of a new results based investment lending instrument. Ethiopia was the first country to endorse the new International Health Partnership, a multi-donor program inaugurated in 2009, through which development partners intend to channel programmatic support for health in the future through an intended pilot of the results based instrument. 38. Much of the support to Ethiopia from other donors has continued to be channeled through a variety of Bank-administered trust funds which build on the results-based focus of Bank-financed programs. The trust fund portfolio continues to be one of the largest in the Africa Region and has disbursed US$787 million so far during the CAS period. Trust funds include multi-donor and single-donor funds set up exclusively for specific programs in Ethiopia, as well as grants under global and regional programs such as the Global Environment Facility (GEF), Education for All ­ Fast Track Initiative (EFA-FTI), the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), and the Global Partnership for Output Based Aid (GPOBA). 39. The Bank's AAA program was carried forward largely as planned with some delays in timing. These delays arose partly because of our focus on frontloading the lending program to help GoE meet its external financing and macro-economic needs, particularly in the roads and energy sectors, and partly reflected longer than anticipated review processes by GoE. There was in addition a focus on growing areas of concern such as climate change. As anticipated, the Bank undertook jointly with the government investment climate assessments in urban and rural areas to help strengthen existing government mechanisms for data collection around country objectives, together with annual public finance reviews. The Bank and GoE also carried out studies on the growth corridors in Amhara and Addis Ababa to explore ways to manage their economic potential better, and derive maximum development benefits from economic activity. Findings of a study on unleashing the economic potential of women, looking at the linkages between gender and poverty may form the basis for a possible FY12 lending proposal. 40. As anticipated in the CAS, IFC resumed investment activities in FY08, and in early FY09 posted a representative in Ethiopia after a hiatus of about eight years. Following its strategy to explore direct investments in high growth priority sectors, IFC committed a US$55 million loan to a cement manufacturing plant in FY08, and in FY10 committed an investment of US$11.3 million in the mining sector to help expand and diversify export revenues. In addition, US$10 million of a US$50 million regional investment in FY09 with a Saudi hospital operator will be used to establish a new hospital in Addis. However, GoE restrictions on foreign borrowing, foreign ownership, lending growth, and regulated tariff structures have held up a series of initiatives that could have deepened financial markets, improved access to financing, particularly for smaller firms that dominate the economy, and attracted private investments in the power generation sector. Despite these restrictions, IFC has continued to find innovative ways to support Ethiopian agribusiness and manufacturing corporates and Micro & Small/Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), using domestic banks as vehicles 13 when required. For example, IFC is working with TechnoServe and selected domestic banks to guarantee lending to coffee farmer cooperatives under the Ethiopian component of the East Africa Coffee Initiative, a US$50 million rural income improvement program funded by the Gates Foundation. In addition, IFC is working with the Ethiopia Commodity Exchange and domestic commercial banks to develop a warehouse receipts finance market. This market would help small- and medium-size firms, in the agricultural production and marketing value chain, access credit through standardized and affordable lending instruments (Warehouse Receipt Loans) to finance their operations and grow their businesses. In manufacturing, IFC is exploring support to industrial zones projects, and the companies which would eventually locate in them, with one project under active development. Finally, IFC was instrumental in the establishment of the Ethiopia Public-Private Dialogue Forum. Together with UNDP, IFC will fund the first years of operations, and it will expand its staffing to support the program. IV. STRATEGY GOING FORWARD: FUTURE BANK ENGAGEMENT 41. The overall objectives set out in the original CAS remain valid, and are broadly consistent with the GTP--GoE's new PRSP--which puts increased emphasis on private sector involvement in economic growth. Several adjustments in the CAS program are needed to respond to the changing environment and progress toward CAS outcomes, and to capitalize on potential post-election opportunities to move forward including on needed structural changes. Overall, this CASPR introduces the following two adjustments: a) The current CAS period will be extended by one year to cover FY12. This extension reflects the fact that the CAS's main themes and pillars remain appropriate but also responds to three particular concerns. First, as discussed in section III.A above, progress toward the outcomes specified in the CAS has, overall, been slower than expected. Besides adapting some of the indicators where they were over-ambitious, overlapping or difficult to monitor, an additional year for implementation will better ensure achievement of the targeted outcomes. Second, it is important for the next CAS to be based on a strong understanding of poverty in Ethiopia. Current, detailed data on the incidence and distribution of poverty date from 2005, and the next household survey (due to begin in fall 2010) is unlikely to produce information until well into FY12, so a CAS written in FY12, to cover FY13 and beyond will be better able to ensure appropriate targeting of Bank activities. Third, it gives the Bank a year to better understand the GoE's GTP, and design in collaboration with the GoE a program that reflects shared priorities. b) The CAS Results Matrix has been revised, updated, and streamlined to improve its quality and realism. The original matrix was rather long and ambitious with 26 core outcomes and 51 indicators. Baselines and targets were missing from some indicators, with data not readily available. The matrix has been revised and streamlined to 22 core outcomes and 38 indicators (7 of which are non-core). A CAS outcome to mainstream gender considerations in the project development objective of all lending, from FY11 onwards, has been added. Three CAS outcomes have been dropped where either progress has been substantially slower than expected, reflecting shifts in GOE's priorities, or there is an absence of an underlying Bank program, or data is not expected to become available during the CAS period. Two other outcomes have been consolidated to reduce overlap. The revised matrix also reflects the moderately slower pace of implementation in some cases; overambitious targets have been modified to more realistic levels and/or the timeframe extended. Most targets have been revised and adjusted to coincide with the extension of the CAS period through FY12. The revised 14 results matrix continues to include a mix of high-probability, but relatively, low-impact outcomes, as well as some lower-probability but higher-impact outcomes. As such, consistent with the CAS, satisfactory performance will have been achieved if 70-75 percent of the entire set of outcomes are fully attained by the end of the revised CAS period. Annex 1 presents the revised matrix. Annex 2 explains the changes made to the core outcomes and related indicators, and Annex 3 summarizes the revised set of core CAS outcomes. 42. The focus of lending and AAA activities will continue to support the CAS's dual take-off strategy and strong partnerships with other donors. The emerging consensus among donors active in Ethiopia is that the conduct and outcome of the 2010 national elections need not imply major change in collective engagement with GoE, although they reinforce concerns about the space for the contestation of ideas. Within the framework of the GTP, the Bank will therefore continue to look for elements that can help promote more accurate and accessible information that expands the space for citizen engagement and private sector initiatives. Increasing support to development programs at the local levels will present opportunities for citizens to engage more actively in development-related decisions as well as to ensure greater transparency and accountability. More conscious support to programs that address needs at the community levels or of disadvantaged groups (especially, women) could be another way to build on the Government's strong commitment to equity. Supporting GoE's own new emphasis, the Bank will also promote new ways of supporting innovations by the private sector to improve the investment climate, including through a role in modernizing the financial sector. Finally, the Bank anticipates continuing with other donors its partnerships with the private sector and civil society, including academia, to help them play their important role in the development process. 43. Decentralization has continued to gain prominence in the Bank's lending program and policy dialogue, reflecting its importance in the GoE's strategy. Decentralization is embodied in Ethiopia's 1994 constitution. It has been progressively implemented, especially over the last ten years, as capacity at lower levels of government has developed, with support from the Bank, and other development partners, through a range of interventions, including both PSCAP and PBS. These programs both recognize the risks that weak decentralized capacity may pose, and have components specifically directed to address those risks. Reflecting this approach, Bank investments and AAA activities across the portfolio are carried out increasingly at the regional and woreda level, although the legal and financial structures on which these activities are based remain focused at the federal level. Looking forward, the Bank will explore with GoE how this decentralized focus should evolve and the case for streamlining the underlying legal and financial structures for Bank engagement. 44. Based on extension of the CAS period, and country and portfolio developments, including progress toward CAS outcomes, the proposed lending program and AAA is different than that presented in FY08. The FY11 core lending program (Table 2) is expected to consist of the US$150 million Agricultural Growth Program, delayed from FY10, together with additional financing of US$ 340 million for PBS 2, which is needed as IDA funding for the PBS 2 block grant component has been exhausted, and PBS 2 underpins a large number of CAS outcomes on access to and quality of basic services, reducing vulnerability and fostering improved governance. The proposal under discussion with the GoE would provide up to two extra years of block grant support (leveraging new financing expected from other donors). 15 Besides continuing to support delivery at the local level in education, health, agriculture, water supply and sanitation, and rural roads, PBS 2 would also sustain improvements in public financial management systems to promote service delivery, and deepen transparency and local accountability. Of the original FY11 program, two operations are deferred to FY12--see below--while one was advanced to FY10 as additional financing (Water Supply and Sanitation). The remaining three operations have been delayed until at least FY13--the Ethiopia/Kenya interconnector depends on whether environmental issues regarding the Gibe III hydropower scheme are satisfactorily addressed; the Pastoral Community Development Program received more financing than expected in FY08, which, when coupled with slower than expected implementation, means there is no likely financing need in FY11 or FY12; the Roads APL 5 depends on completion of an ongoing piece of AAA and agreement with GoE on a program for universal roads access. The non-lending program for FY11 and FY12 will focus on key themes critical to implementing GoE's strategy. It will revolve around a series of deliverables to explore innovations tailored to the Ethiopian context, and through which to improve decentralized service delivery, spur private sector led industrial growth and ensure food security. Dissemination will build on a successful seminar series hosted by the University of Addis Ababa (supported by the Bank and other donors), and will include inputs and commentary from cutting edge leaders and practitioners from within and outside of Ethiopia. Building on previous climate change AAA, the Bank is also producing a comprehensive analysis aimed at spelling out the economics of adaptation (EACC), from both a sectoral and macro perspective. The findings of this report will help inform the dialogue on how the Bank could support GoE's efforts to promote a carbon neutral and climate resilient economy. This might include follow-up AAA work that would spell out the policy and operational implications of the EACC results in selected strategic sectors (such as transport, irrigation, energy) and underpin possible future lending in this area. 45. For FY 12, the Bank is currently discussing the precise program with GoE. Subject to the resources available under IDA 16, it is expected to include some additional financing proposals to scale up existing operations (e.g. rural electricity, roads, private sector development). We are also discussing a new phase of the Sustainable Land Management Program, likely with a strengthened emphasis on land administration. Beyond that the Bank has identified for discussion an operation to build on ESW about women's economic empowerment, and another to explore the potential of piloting results-based investment lending to support achievement of the health sector MDGs in Ethiopia, building on progress in the health sector supported by PBS 2, experience with results based approaches (e.g. under a GPOBA grant) and the IHP. The program will include a PRSC, if the Bank and GoE can agree on an agenda of structural changes, particularly those relating to private sector development, including industrial, financial sector, telecommunication and land policy. 46. The IFC will continue to explore opportunities for deepening its engagement. Its strategy, which it has fine tuned based on about two years of renewed engagement, focuses on supporting private sector investment in agribusiness and the industrial sectors where there is strong market growth combined with a lack of supply response, and/or strong export potential. Where opportunities arise, it will seek to integrate its advisory services and investments building on the advanced partnerships forged with domestic banks, the Ethiopia Commodity Exchange and other partners. IFC will work through the financial sector, where possible, to improve access to finance, and in infrastructure to explore avenues for private participation that may emerge 16 through large-scale projects under consideration. It will continue to partner with the Bank and others on policy dialogue related to growth and private sector development, including through the recently established Ethiopia Public-Private Dialogue Forum, which may become a platform for more focused advisory assistance on various areas of investment climate reform. V. RISKS AND MITIGATION 47. The four main risks identified in the CAS are still valid. Risk is relatively steady in two areas--governance-related risks and macroeconomic risks--and mitigation are the same as described in the CAS. It has increased in two others--vulnerability to external shocks and weak capacity. 48. There is heightened vulnerability to external shocks due to a risk of food price shocks that could result from a rise in global commodity prices, uncertainty of the probability of major drought or extensive rains in the near future, and a risk of decreased availability of external finance. Ethiopia appears on course for a good domestic harvest in 2010. However, the country has a structural food deficit, making it reliant on food aid, and it is also experiencing changing consumption patterns, both of which make Ethiopia somewhat vulnerable to an increase in global wheat prices. Climatic conditions this year seem likely to depress wheat production, and prices are therefore likely to rise significantly. The CAS did note the prevalence of drought in Ethiopia and the potential for resulting impacts. In addition, as weather patterns become more erratic because of climate change, extreme events such as droughts or floods may become both more frequent and more intense. Quite conceivably, after six years without a severe drought, the next occurrence may have a major impact. To mitigate the risk of extreme weather events, the Bank has been supporting the government to prepare a disaster risk management strategy which is pending ratification and implementation. A drought could result not just in food shortages (to be mitigated through the Bank supported productive safety net program), but also have an impact on power generation as Ethiopia relies heavily on hydroelectric power. The government is mitigating this risk through increasing energy capacity, improving energy efficiency, and through interconnectivity with neighboring countries. Increased rains could have implications for flooding which the government is mitigating through the development of flood management systems with Bank support. There is some evidence that African countries continue to be vulnerable to the financial crisis in other parts of the world. The unfolding debt crisis in Europe may have reverberations that are more serious than the first wave of the financial crisis and Ethiopia's access to external sources of financing may tighten, particularly if governance or environmental concerns are exacerbated. To mitigate this risk, the Bank will maintain our close dialogue with the government, private sector and civil society representatives, other donors and regional institutions. Potential options for responding include a further portfolio restructuring to accelerate disbursements for programs with broad agreement; or bringing forward a PRSC provided there were to be agreement on an appropriate program of structural changes. Effects of rain failure or a rise in global commodity prices likely will be more pronounced if energy shortages and currency issues are not addressed and credit to the private sector remains tight. 17 49. Risks related to weak capacity are increasing as the Bank's program engages more and more at the local level. The Bank will continue to support improvements in financial management and procurement capacity as described in the CAS to mitigate this risk. In addition, the Bank's move toward programmatic support, by supporting a comprehensive government sector program implemented by civil servants rather than isolated ring-fenced donor financed projects that operate in parallel to government programs, facilitates coherent policy recommendations and suggestions on institutional policies that could help the government find and adopt solutions to build capacity. However, this brings with it a subsidiary risk that if, for any reason, the development partnership underlying such programmatic approaches were to fragment, the implementation approaches used for most of the Bank's program would need to be reviewed and revised. 18 ANNEX 1: CAS Results Framework Longer-Term Development Agenda for Ethiopia Outcomes Influenced by the CAS Program by end Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 CAS Outcomes that the Bank Strategic and Longer- Issues/obstacles and Bank expects to influence and indicators Bank Assistance and Term Country Milestones strategy (the 21 CAS core outcomes are Progress to date Partners1 Outcomes bolded and shaded) Strategic Objective 1: Fostering economic growth 1.1 Support macro- Rapid growth poses risks of macro 1. Structural and macroeconomic M1. Prudent m1. Broad money growth has AAA fiscal stability imbalances (especially inflation policies are conducive to sustain management of slowed down, but reserve Macro Fiscal Issues Growth and external balance). GoE is internal and external balance monetary policy to curb money growth rate has New Lending well aware of these risks and I1. Inflation rate declines from inflation. increased. Possible PRSC addressing them. The Bank, with 34% in 2007/08 to single digits by Partners IMF, to continue providing policy 2010/11 and is sustained through M2. Establishment of m2. A Committee has been IMF advice and look ahead for 2011/12. M & E system for set up to monitor domestic emerging issues. Progress to date: Inflation investment and borrowing of public declined to 7.3% in June 2010.( contingent liabilities in enterprises, but not their The annual moving average the public enterprises. investment programs. inflation rate at June 2010 is 2.8%) Revenue growth has fallen short of Increase domestic resource M3. Timely preparation m3. MEFF is prepared on AAA GDP growth recently and mobilization of an integrated and time and its consistency has Public Finance Review constrains the fiscal space. IMF I2. Revenue/GDP ratio increases consistent Macro- improved, though some of its (JBAR) and the Bank have worked closely from 12.1% in 2007/08 to 14.3% in Economic and Fiscal macro assumptions need Macro Fiscal Issues Growth with GoE in developing a plan for 2011/12. Framework. further improvements. Public Expenditure Review more effective domestic resource Progress to date: Revenue/GDP On-going Lending mobilization. The Bank to fell to 12.0% in 2008/09, but is M4. Full m4. Tax administrative PSCAP continue the effort. expected to increase marginally to implementation of reforms are under New lending 12.6% in 2009/10. ongoing tax implementation, though IMF Possible PRSC administrative reforms. has recently suggested more Partners changes. IMF, PSCAP Partners2 1.2. Accelerate the level High costs due to lack of 2. Strengthen road sector M5. Domestic m5. The DCI policy was AAA and productivity of competition and slow contractor institutions and domestic road Construction Industry drafted and distributed for Strategic Review of Road investment in performance in implementation construction industry (DCI) policy formulated feedback in early 2009. The Sector Development infrastructure in a constrain the progress of I3. Volume of civil works contracts and comprehensive comprehensive capacity On-going Lending sustainable manner ambitious road network expansion disbursed by Domestic Contractors capacity building building program has not yet Road Sector APLs 2-4 plan. To remedy this, GoE is keen increased from 35% of total in program launched. been launched, pending New lending to strengthen domestic 2007/08 to 54% by 2011/12. finalization of the DCI policy Roads APL 3 AF construction industry. The Bank Progress to date: 43% showing and increased priority given to Partners will support GoE in developing a steady progress from the base line it within the Ministry of EC, DFID, AfDB program to foster domestic in 2009/10. Works and Urban industry and robust competition. Development. 1 List of partners is not intended to be exhaustive and any omissions are unintentional. 2 PSCAP Partners include DFID, CIDA, and Irish Aid, with Italy and EU support planned. 19 ANNEX 1: CAS Results Framework Longer-Term Development Agenda for Ethiopia Outcomes Influenced by the CAS Program by end Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 CAS Outcomes that the Bank Strategic and Longer- Issues/obstacles and Bank expects to influence and indicators Bank Assistance and Term Country Milestones strategy (the 21 CAS core outcomes are Progress to date Partners1 Outcomes bolded and shaded) 1.2. Accelerate the level Improve road density M6. Ethiopian Road m6. The government plans to and productivity of I4. Road density per 1000 sq.km Authority reformed on unbundle the ERA into investment in increases from 38.6 km in 2007 to commercial basis and operational and regulatory infrastructure in a 45.7 km in 2011/12. operational departments institutions by end-2010. A sustainable manner Progress to date: 42.6 km in 2010. spun off from ERA. regulation establishing the (continued) Ethiopian Roads Construction Corporation and a proclamation for the re- establishment of the ERA are being submitted as drafts to the Council of Ministers. Ethiopia's economic fortunes are 3. Enhance regional integration M7. Transmission line m7. Transmission On-going Lending closely linked with neighboring I5. Power traded between from Ethiopian power interconnector with Sudan is Ethiopia/Nile Basin countries in a number of ways. Ethiopia, Sudan, and/or Djibouti. grid to Sudanese border under construction. Power Initiatives Power Export: The Bank will support regional Progress to date: Power is completed. Purchase Agreement has been Ethiopia/Sudan investments that can not only planned to be traded starting in signed. Partners bring economic benefits, but can 2010. AfDB, NBI Partners also build greater M8. Eastern Nile m8. Eastern Nile Strategic interdependence, which could I6. Establishment of an East strategic basin Basin Assessment and reduce the likelihood of intra- Africa Power Pool under the NBI assessment and assistance strategy underway; regional conflict. In both respects, framework by end-2011/12. assistance strategy draft report anticipated in regional integration can be a key Progress to date: Funds have been completed. Nov. 2010. factor in helping to sustain allocated to carry out studies to Ethiopia's recent economic develop an East Africa Power Pool. growth. GoE is committed to expand Increase access to electricity M9. Increase the pace M9. The electrification On-going Lending generation capacity and access I7. Percent of towns with access of connections to the program has progressed well, Energy Access SIL rapidly. Care needs to be taken to through at least one connection to grid by 20% in but there is a country wide Rural Access Exp'n 1 ensure efficient modalities of electricity increases from 16% in electrified towns and moratorium on new Rural Access Exp'n 2 delivery (i.e., grid vs. off-grid) and 2004/05 to 50% in 2010/11. villages, leveraging connections, including GEF Energy Access implementation. Expansion of Progress to date: Output Based Aid GPOBA beneficiaries. New lending generation capacity requires >50% in 2010. (OBA) instruments. Ethiopian Electric Power Rural Access Exp'n 2 AF careful phasing and financial Corporation should resume Partners planning. The Bank will focus on connections in September EIB, EC, AfDB, Italy, offering advice on efficient plans 2010. China, India, Kuwait Fund, and providing or facilitating GPOBA financing where needed. 1.3. Increase Raising agriculture productivity 4. Increase agricultural M10. Increase in area m10. Coverage of private AAA productivity of has been central to PASDEP. productivity in selected intervention with land certification. rural land holdings with first Rural Investment Climate agriculture Extension services need further areas level certificate estimated at Assessment strengthening. There is some I8. Average agriculture value 44% in 2007 and 66% in Rural Access Development 20 ANNEX 1: CAS Results Framework Longer-Term Development Agenda for Ethiopia Outcomes Influenced by the CAS Program by end Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 CAS Outcomes that the Bank Strategic and Longer- Issues/obstacles and Bank expects to influence and indicators Bank Assistance and Term Country Milestones strategy (the 21 CAS core outcomes are Progress to date Partners1 Outcomes bolded and shaded) ambiguity on whether productivity added to increase by 5% per annum 2009. Regional Growth Study has increased significantly. The Progress to date: Average M11. Results-based m11. (a) Development of On- going Lending Bank's PBS and RCBP will agricultural value added increased M&E system developed M&E system for the national PBS 2 continue to help improve access 7.5% in 2007/08 and 6.0% in for agricultural agricultural research under Pastoral Community and quality of extension services. 2009/10. extension, vocational way. Development Program 2 Some analytical work is likely to education, and research. (b) M&E for agricultural (PCDP 2) help ensure proper focus of extension and vocational Irrigation & Drainage SIL resources on the right education under RCBP has Sustainable Land interventions for productivity made progress including Management1 Specific enhancement. through an impact assessment Investment Loan (SIL) study (June 2010). Tana Beles M12. Sustainable Land m12. SLMP is under active Eastern African Management Project implementation in 35 woredas Agricultural Productivity (SLMP) and Tana Beles and Tana Beles Project in 5 Capacity Building for Project actively woredas. Agriculture Service implemented in a New Lending minimum of 35 PBS 2 AF woredas. Sustainable Land Management 2 SIL M13. Feasibility studies m13. Feasibility studies for Agricultural Growth completed for irrigation 24,000 ha have been Program of 104,000 ha by end- completed, and are underway Partners 2011/12. for an additional 80,000 ha. REDFS group3 1.4 Strengthen supply Inefficiency of the banking sector 5. Improve financial sector M14. Conclude the m14. IDA has provided its no AAA responsiveness of will hamper private sector growth. performance implementation of objection to the procurement Financial Sector Review industry and services I9. Credit to the private sector as a National Payments process for both assignments On-going Lending sector ratio to GDP increases from 12% Systems (NPS) and the and for the NBE to proceed to Financial Sec. Cap. Bldg. in 2005/06 to 16% in 2011. Credit Information contract negotiations with the New Lending Progress to data: Credit to the Center (CIC), chosen firms for the NPS and Possible PRSC private sector increased in absolute CIC Partners terms from ETB16.1 billion in IMF 2005/06 to ETB30.5 billion but in relative terms it decreased to 9% of GDP in 2009. 1.4 Strengthen supply The low penetration rate of 6. Reduce cost of internet service M15. At least 5 private m15. While Ethiopian AAA responsiveness of telephone service and the high I10. Cost of broadband and dial-up retail Internet Service Telecommunication Agency Telecom Reform Options industry and services rate for international calls hinder Internet services to decline by 40% Providers operational. has licensed 5 private ISPs, New Lending sector private sector growth. Limited and 20%, respectively, between none are operational. Possible PRSC (continued) access to internet also hurt small 2008 and 2011. 3 Rural Economic Development and Food Security (REDFS) Group includes AfDB, Austrian Development Cooperation, CIDA, DFID, EC, FAO, German Development Cooperation, IFAD IFPRI, Irish Aid, Italian Cooperation, JICA, Norway, SIDA, The Netherlands, UNDP, USAID, WFP. 21 ANNEX 1: CAS Results Framework Longer-Term Development Agenda for Ethiopia Outcomes Influenced by the CAS Program by end Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 CAS Outcomes that the Bank Strategic and Longer- Issues/obstacles and Bank expects to influence and indicators Bank Assistance and Term Country Milestones strategy (the 21 CAS core outcomes are Progress to date Partners1 Outcomes bolded and shaded) businesses. The focus on Progress to date: Monthly cost of sustaining growth should open a internet connection (incl. 600 space for further dialogue. minutes) fell from ETB60 in 2008 to ETB40 in 2010 (33% reduction). Broadband infrastructure is under development, but service is still limited. Monthly cost of a 2 Mbps ADSL connection has fallen from ETB47,479 in 2008 to ETB10,747 in 2010 (77% decrease). GoE's strategy has tended to pick 7. Improved investment climate M16. Public-Private m16. MOU between the AAA a small number of `winners.' To helps Ethiopia benefit from increased Dialogue (PPD) Forum Ethiopia Chamber of Investment Climate elicit much greater supply globalization reinstituted and Commerce and Sectoral Assessment (ICA) response from the economy, I11. Cumulative increase in FDI considered effective by Association, governing the Public Private Forum Ethiopia is likely to need a more of at least 40% by the end of the private sector. PPD process signed. Tourism Competitiveness open approach to promotion of CAS period. Service Trade and Growth investment. Focusing on the need Progress to date: FDI increased M17. Revised Trade m17. A revised Competition Innovation for Devel'p't to sustain rapid growth, from about US $365 million to Practices Proclamation Law has been submitted and On-going Lending encourage a strategic shift. about US $880 million, about adopted to address deliberated on by the Council PSD Cap. Building 141% increase between 2005/06 current deficiencies. of Ministers and is waiting to Tourism Dev. Project and 2008/09. be lodged for Parliamentary New Lending approval. PSD Cap. Building AF Partners US, EC, DFID, ADB, IMF The quality and standards of Improve quality of corporate M18. Satisfactory m18. (a) Proclamation AAA corporate financial reporting in financial reporting national accounting and submitted to OFAG to adopt ROSC Accounting and Ethiopia need to be improved and I12. Ethiopia's corporate sector auditing standards Ethiopian standards for IFRS Auditing brought in line with international follows accounting and auditing issued, and legal and ISA--next steps COM and EITI MDTF good practices. The necessary standards that are in line with framework established Parliamentary approval. legal framework and institutional International Financial Reporting to ensure compliance (b) Draft Constitution, by laws infrastructure for this need to be Standards (IFRS) and International with these standards. and Code of Conduct for put in place. Standards of Auditing (ISA) as Institute of CPAs of Ethiopia assessed by the 2012 ROSC. and draft organizational Progress to date: Financial structure and scope of reporting law and directive which activities of the National require adherence to IFRS and ISA Accounting and Auditing passed. Board submitted to OFAG. Strategic Objective 2: Improving Access to and Quality of Basic Service Delivery 2.1 Improve PASDEP commitment to universal 8. Increase girls' enrollment in M19. Block grants to M19. GoE continues to AAA 22 ANNEX 1: CAS Results Framework Longer-Term Development Agenda for Ethiopia Outcomes Influenced by the CAS Program by end Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 CAS Outcomes that the Bank Strategic and Longer- Issues/obstacles and Bank expects to influence and indicators Bank Assistance and Term Country Milestones strategy (the 21 CAS core outcomes are Progress to date Partners1 Outcomes bolded and shaded) access/coverage of basic education is strong, but continued primary and secondary education woredas continue to increase block grants to Decentralized Service services improvement in decentralized I13. Ratio of girls to boys in increase. regions & woredas every Delivery service delivery is needed. The primary school increases from 89% fiscal year. In 2006/07 On-going Lending Bank to continue support for this in 2006/07 to 93% in 2011/12 in US$1.1 billion was PBS 2 process, with particular focus on grades 1-4 (1st cycle of primary), distributed and increased to Pastoral Comm. Devt. 2 creating more space for localized 76% to 93% in grades 5-8 (2nd US$1.47 billion in 2009/10. GEQIP responses to address obstacles. cycle of primary), from 63% to New Lending 75% in grades 9-10 (1st cycle of M20. PCDP coverage m20. In the first phase of PBS 2 AF secondary) from 50% to 50% in increased to address the program, PCDP covered Partners grades 11-12 (2nd cycle of special needs of 32 woredas (2003-2007), PBS Partners4 secondary) (the 2011/12 target for pastoralist children. and in the second phase grades 11-12 is the same as the (2008-present) the coverage 2006/07 baseline due to decline in increased to 55 woredas. percentage in 2008/09) Progress to date: Ratio of girls to boys in 2008/09 in Grade 1-4 was 90%, in Grade 5-8 89%, in Grade 9-10 72%, and Grades 11-12 41%. While progress has been made, 9. Increase sustainable access to M21. User groups m21. 90% of participating AAA access to potable water and potable water and sanitation services organized to operate and communities are organized Decentralized Service sanitation services remains low. I14. Total population with access maintain water points to plan, manage, and Delivery Availability of resources remains a to safe drinking water (rural and and promote hygiene operate their WSS schemes Public Finance Review-Water big challenge, and sustainability urban) increased from 52% in and sanitation practices. and coordinate with the On-going Lending of the system deserves attention. 2007/08 to 74.5% in 2011/12. health extension workers in Urban Water and Sanitation The Bank has been well engaged Progress to date: 66.2% in promoting health and Water Supply & Sanitation in the sector. It will continue to 2009/10. sanitation practices. SIL scale up support in part by I15. % of rural/urban households m22. 85% of the 87 small PBS 2 bringing other donors into the using latrines increased from 39% towns pop. <15,000; 50% Pastoral Comm. Devt. 2 sector. 2007/08 to 60% 2011/12. M22. Autonomous of the 29 large towns pop. Urban Local Government Progress to date: 56% in 2009/10. urban utilities >15,000; and 100% of the Development I16. Proportion of malfunctioning strengthened to operate six loan receiving towns New Lending rural water facilities reduced from with business plans and have autonomous board PBS 2 AF 25% in 2007/08 to 16% in 2011/12. with improved management and most have Partners Progress to date: 20% in 2009/10. management. completed business plan. DFID 2.1 Improve GoE's commitment to improving 10. Increase delivery of key health M23. Woreda m23. See M29 for block AAA access/coverage of basic access to health care is clear, but services: malaria control, HIV/AIDS governments receive grants Distribution of Decentralized Service services there is a scope for much greater prevention, vaccination, nutrition, increased funding for Medical equipment and Delivery (continued) harmonization. The Bank will contraception service delivery through supplies was completed for Health Financing Policy Note focus on resource mobilization I17. Proportion of children block grants and 976 health centers as of Education and Nutrition 4 PBS Partner Group includes World Bank, DFID, AfDB, EC, CIDA, KfW, Netherlands, Austria, Italy, Ireland, Spain. 23 ANNEX 1: CAS Results Framework Longer-Term Development Agenda for Ethiopia Outcomes Influenced by the CAS Program by end Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 CAS Outcomes that the Bank Strategic and Longer- Issues/obstacles and Bank expects to influence and indicators Bank Assistance and Term Country Milestones strategy (the 21 CAS core outcomes are Progress to date Partners1 Outcomes bolded and shaded) and efficiency of resource use. It vaccinated against DPT3 increases increased amounts of 2010. Linkages will support Ministry of Health from 72.6% in 2006/07 to 83% by centrally procured health On-going Lending (MoH) implement its road map for 2009/10. commodities with PBS PBS 2 International Health Partnership Progress to date: 82% in 2008/09 support. Mulitsectoral HIV/AIDS 2 (IHP). and it is expected to reach 85% by Pastoral Comm. Devt. 2 June 2010. M24. 2.4 million m24. 1.7 million Nutrition SIL I18. Number of new malaria cases replacement Insecticide Insecticide Treated Nets New Lending decreases from 370,000 in 2006/07 Treated Nets distributed were distributed in 2009/10. PBS 2 AF to 100,000 by 2011/12. between beginning- Health MDG Fund Progress to date: Progress 2009/10 and end- Partners assessment pending Demographic 2011/12. PBS Partners, USAID, Global Health Survey 2010. Fund for Malaria, TB and I19. Percentage of young people M25. Donors and MoH m25. IHP+ roadmap HIV-AIDS, Global Alliance (age 15-24) with understanding of make progress on finalized and the first round for Vaccines and how to prevent HIV/AIDS implementation of IHP review of Health Sector Immunization transmission increases from 67% roadmap. Development Programme- of women and 54% of men in IV zero draft using JANS 2004/05 to 75% overall by tools conducted. Following 2011/12. the review a second draft Progress to date: Progress was prepared and circulated Assessment pending the follow-up in May 2010 for another Demographic Health Survey 2010. review. GoE's commitment to improving I20. Percentage of pregnant M26. 95% of Multi- m26. Woredas have been access to health care is clear, but women receiving iron and folate sectoral HIV/AIDS implementing action plans there is a scope for much greater supplementation increases from Program 2 (MAP 2) on prevention focusing on harmonization. The Bank will 10% in 2004/05 to 23% in 2011/12. participating woredas Most at Risk Population focus on resource mobilization Progress to date: 19% as of implementing action Groups. . and efficiency of resource use. It August 2009. plans on HIV/AIDS will support Ministry of Health prevention targeting (MoH) implement its road map for most-at-risk groups. International Health Partnership (IHP)(continued). 2.2. Enhance quality of With access significantly 11. Improve quality of education M27. Primary grade 1-4 m27. Pupil-teacher ratio in On-going Lending basic services improved, GoE's focus is shifting I21. Grade 5 completion rate student-teacher ratio Grade 1-4 was 62:1 in PBS 2 toward quality enhancement. The increases from 65% in 2006/07 to declines from 65:1 in 2008/09. GEQIP Bank to support the general above 87% in 2011/12. 2006/07 to 54:1 in New Lending direction with expansion of PBS Progress to date: Primary school 2011/12. PBS 2 AF 24 ANNEX 1: CAS Results Framework Longer-Term Development Agenda for Ethiopia Outcomes Influenced by the CAS Program by end Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 CAS Outcomes that the Bank Strategic and Longer- Issues/obstacles and Bank expects to influence and indicators Bank Assistance and Term Country Milestones strategy (the 21 CAS core outcomes are Progress to date Partners1 Outcomes bolded and shaded) funding and funding for Ministry completion rate (grade 5) increased Partners of Education's own General to 78.9% in 2008/09. PBS Partners, USAID Education Quality Enhancement Plan. Integrating essential healthcare 12. Roll-out of kebele health M28. Substantially all m28. The GoE trained and AAA services at the kebele level is key extension package leads to improved rural kebeles have two deployed 31,831 health Decentralized Service to harmonization of donor services trained health extension extension workers by Delivery assistance. The Bank will help I22. Percentage of births attended workers (an increase to 2009/10. This translates to Health Financing Policy Note mobilize additional resources, by trained health personnel about 30,000 workers a 106% achievement. On-going Lending achieve greater harmonization increases from 9% in 2004/05 to total from the 2006/07 Nutrition SIL along the International Health 27% in 2011/12. baseline of 17,600). PBS 2 Partnership (IHP) initiative, and Progress to date: Skilled health New lending strengthen results monitoring. attendant delivery rose from 20.7% PBS 2 AF in 2007/08 to 24.9% in 2008/09. Health MDG Fund Partners PBS Partners, USAID, WHO, UNICEF 2.3 Enhance citizens' Independent community radio 13. Greater use of community radios M29. Regulatory and m29. The Government has Lending voice to improve quality service can help improve service for improved service delivery institutional framework put in place the policy ICTAD project of basic services. delivery quality, if used as a I23. At least 10 woredas with for community radios in framework and regulations vehicle for promoting awareness community radio station in place covering licensing, for licensing of both and social accountability. Support operation. training of trainers, and commercial and community the development of a framework Progress to date: Eight content development radios. for operation of community radios. community radios have been set up training. and are operational. Strategic Objective 3: Reducing Vulnerability 3.1 Reduce exposure to With PSNP, GoE's focus has 14. Reduce food insecurity M30. Proportion of m30. 86% of Woredas AAA chronic food insecurity shifted toward a programmatic I24. Reduce the average number PSNP program woredas completed in November Urban Safety Nets Note and shocks approach to food security. The key of days chronically food insecure completing 80% of 2009. Rural Safety Nets Note is to consolidate the other households participating in PSNP transfer distributions by Urban Poverty elements of the Program, public works activities (comprising end-July annually On-going Lending particularly efforts to rebuild 5.75 m people) report being food increases from 12% in PSNP 3 livelihoods of the poor, promote insecure from 110.6 days in 2006 2007 to 75% in 2010. Partners diversification and encourage to 98.5 days by end-2010. PSNP Partners innovation. Confirmation that Progress to date: PSNP public households are beginning to move works participants that also toward graduation is critical. The received Household Asset Building Bank to focus on ensuring PSNP Program reported being food will withstand the test of a real insecure 97.1 days and PSNP emergency. public works participants for 98.6 25 ANNEX 1: CAS Results Framework Longer-Term Development Agenda for Ethiopia Outcomes Influenced by the CAS Program by end Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 CAS Outcomes that the Bank Strategic and Longer- Issues/obstacles and Bank expects to influence and indicators Bank Assistance and Term Country Milestones strategy (the 21 CAS core outcomes are Progress to date Partners1 Outcomes bolded and shaded) days in mid-2008. In moving to phase 3 of PSNP and 15. Develop long-term strategy for M31. Impact m31. 2008 Impact AAA designing effective interventions to food security and vulnerability to assessment of PSNP Assessment completed. Urban Poverty ensure graduation, donors need natural disasters completed. Final report dated 30 June Rural Safety Nets Note clarity on GoE long term plan for I25. A food security program and 2009. 2010 Impact Urban Safety Nets Note food security and disaster risk disaster risk management strategy Assessment in progress. On-going Lending management. Phase 3 of PSNP that is coherent and consistent with PSNP 3 will be leveraged to engage GoE macro outlook developed. Partners on this issue, which is central to Progress to date: Food Security PSNP Partners PASDEP success. Program (2010-2014) and Disaster Risk Management Strategy developed that are consistent with macro outlook. Disaster Risk Management Strategy pending ratification. 3.1 Reduce exposure to Land degradation has become a 16. Increase investment in M32. SLM and Tana m32. SLMP and Tana On-going Lending chronic food insecurity major environmental threat. Both community-based watershed Beles projects launched. Beles Project ware both PSNP 3 and shocks for environmental reasons and to management launched in Oct 2008. Sustainable Land Mgt SIL (continued) improve food security, land I26. 60,000 hectares watershed m33. Flood preparedness Tana Beles degradation has gained attention. rehabilitated 2007/08 and 2011/12. M33. Flood & early warning Phase II Partners The Bank will help translate this Progress to date: 167,150 hectares preparedness and early (FPEW II) is a sub- RED&FS group concern into quick actions by of watershed rehabilitated end warning system in Tana component of Tana Beles. IDA/GEF, KfW, GTZ GoE. 2009/10. Basin launched. Financing agreement signed I27. Investment in community June 2008; effectiveness based flood management rises from declared Oct. 2008. A 0 in 2007/08 to US$5m end continuation of FPEW 2011/12. Phase I implemented by E. Progress to date: As of end Nile Technical Regional 2009/10 investments have been Office and the Eastern Nile minimal. Countries since June 2007. 3.2 Address GoE recognizes that SLM Establish institutions for sustainable M34. Federal and m34. Federal and Regional AAA environmental programs need to be implemented land management Regional SLM SLM platforms to facilitate Climate Change degradation and on a large scale and in a I28. Federal and Regional SLM Platforms established. coordination across sectors Climate Change Adaptation population pressures coordinated manner. Platforms hold regular meetings to have been established, Land Administration Implementation of SLM project provide policy and technical including a Steering On-going Lending should occasion establishment of guidance in the implementation of Committee and a Technical Sustainable Land Mgt 1 the necessary institutions. SLMP activities, including annual Committee at the national New lending planning sessions to develop level and in each Region Sustainable Land Mgt 2 collaboratively annual work covered by the SLM Partners programs. Project. RED&FS group Progress to date: Federal and Regional SLM Platforms have met 26 ANNEX 1: CAS Results Framework Longer-Term Development Agenda for Ethiopia Outcomes Influenced by the CAS Program by end Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 CAS Outcomes that the Bank Strategic and Longer- Issues/obstacles and Bank expects to influence and indicators Bank Assistance and Term Country Milestones strategy (the 21 CAS core outcomes are Progress to date Partners1 Outcomes bolded and shaded) regularly since Oct 2008, including annual work program meetings. Continued rapid growth in 17. Accelerate demographic M35. Hormonal m35. No direct data On-going Lending population is an obstacle for transition contraceptives available. However, PBS 2 Ethiopia to get out of a poverty I29. Contraceptive prevalence rate distributed to cover 8.75 contraceptive acceptance MAP II trap. Use dialogue on long-term as measured by Demographic million couple-years of rate rose from 53.8% in New Lending sustainability of rapid growth to Health Survey (DHS) increases by protection in 2009/10, 2008/09 to 56.2% in PBS 2 AF highlight the importance of 2 percentage points p.a. from 15% up from 6.1 million in 2009/10. Partners demographic issues. in 2004/05 to 25% in 2011/12. 2006/07. UNFPA, WHO, Progress to date: Progress M36. Annual assessment pending the 2010 DHS. distribution of male and m36. 97 million condoms female condoms were distributed in the year increases from 80 m in 2008/09. 2006/07 to 140 m in 2009/10. 3.2 Address With rapid growth, GoE is aware 18. Increased voice of women M37. PBS 2 social m37. Monitoring to begin AAA environmental of social risks of leaving certain within communities. accountability interface in FY11. Gender Study degradation and groups being left behind, including I30. Participation of women in meetings take place in On-going Lending population pressures women and youth. community meetings (social 172 woredas. PBS 2 (continued) accountability interface meetings) Partners related to PBS 2 increases by 30% PBS partners between December 2010 and June 50-60 CSOs 2012. Progress to date: New indicator. Monitoring to begin in FY11. Strategic Objective 4: Fostering Improved Governance 4.1 Improve Modern public service requires 19. Improve performance of the M38. Business process m38. a) 18 out of 48 AAA government effective, rule and merit-based public service reengineering Federal institutions and all ICA effectiveness and civil service. The Bank will I31. Woreda/City Bench-marking implemented in all Bureaus in Amhara, Public-Finance quality of public continue to support GoE's state Surveys (WCBS) show improving federal and regional Oromiya, Tigray, SNNP, Review(JBAR) administration. transformation process through perception of integrity and public institutions. Addis Ababa and Harari Procurement Reforms the public sector reform program, performance of public service: Regional states are at full On-going Lending performance measured by implementation stage. PSCAP percentages of people satisfied b). 8 out of 41(the number PBS 2 with Agriculture Extension of institutions engaged in Urban Local Government Service, Solid-waste service, Water balanced scorecard) Development supply service and Health service, Federal institutions and all New Lending increasing from 82%, 69.9%, 60% Bureaus in Dire Dawa City PBS 2 AF and 34% in 2008 to 85%, 75%, Administration are at the Partners 27 ANNEX 1: CAS Results Framework Longer-Term Development Agenda for Ethiopia Outcomes Influenced by the CAS Program by end Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 CAS Outcomes that the Bank Strategic and Longer- Issues/obstacles and Bank expects to influence and indicators Bank Assistance and Term Country Milestones strategy (the 21 CAS core outcomes are Progress to date Partners1 Outcomes bolded and shaded) 62% and 60% in 2012 respectively, pilot testing stage. PSCAP Partners, CIDA DFID and integrity measured by c) 16 of 48 Federal percentage of people who made institutions and all Bureaus extra payments for general service, in Benshangul and Afar decreasing from 4.3% in 2008 to Regional States are under 4% in 2012. preparation for Progress to Date: The 2010 implementation. WCBS reported 84%, 73.7%, 57% d) 6 of 48 Federal and 57% of people were satisfied institutions as well as all with the services respectively, and Bureaus in Somali and 4.1% made extra payments. Gambela Regional States are conducting process review (study) stage for the reengineering. 4.1 Improve Modern public service requires I32. Improvement in public M39. Balanced score- m39. 5 Federal institutions AAA: government effective, rule and merit-based financial management performance card performance are at full implementation. Country Fiduciary effectiveness and civil service. The Bank will evidenced by at least 25% of the management system 9 Federal institutions and Assessment quality of public continue to support GoE's state Public Expenditure and Financial rolled out to all federal all Bureaus in Tigray, administration. transformation process through Accountability indicators showing and regional institutions. almost in all Bureaus in (continued) the public sector reform program. improvement over corresponding Amhara and 41 Bureaus in (continued) 2007 scores. Oromiya Regional States Progress to date: Nine indicators, are at the stage of planning PI (performance indicator) -2, PI-6, for implementation. 27 PI-10, PI-14, PI-16, PI-17, PI-20, Federal institutions as well PI-24 and PI-27 out of 30 as all Bureaus in SNNP, indicators have improved reflecting Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa a change in performance of the and Harari Regional State PFM areas covered by the are under the process of indicators in 2010. Two (2) preparation (total no. of indicators PI-3 and PI-26 were federal inst'ns approx. 48) overrated in 2007. M40. Functional public m40. Procurement procurement oversight oversight is about 30% with annual procurement functional. 44 of 125 audits for 50% of Procuring Entities audited procuring entities. in FY10. 4.2 Enhance the With greater decentralization of 20. Greater capacity of local M41. Planning m41. Planning guidelines AAA accountability and service delivery, effective citizen government to engage with citizens guidelines with expected to be issued in Capacity Building TA responsiveness of engagement at local levels has for more responsive services procedures and formats 2010. On-going Lending government. become critical. Sustained I33. Participatory planning of for citizen engagement PBS 2 capacity building of local basic services adopted by 2011/12 issued in woredas. PSCAP government is needed to engage in 30% of woredas that receive Urban Local Government citizens in shaping their own Local Investment Grants (from 0% M42. Capital m42. Eighteen cities have Development 28 ANNEX 1: CAS Results Framework Longer-Term Development Agenda for Ethiopia Outcomes Influenced by the CAS Program by end Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 CAS Outcomes that the Bank Strategic and Longer- Issues/obstacles and Bank expects to influence and indicators Bank Assistance and Term Country Milestones strategy (the 21 CAS core outcomes are Progress to date Partners1 Outcomes bolded and shaded) development. The Bank will in 2008/09). Investment Plans in 19 prepared rolling 3 year New Lending continue engaging in dialogue and Progress to date: 15% of woredas selected cities prepared. Capital Investment Plans PBS 2 AF support this effort through a range adopted participatory planning by for 2008/09. Partners of instruments. the end of 2009/10. PBS, PSCAP partners, CSSP, I34. 12 out of 19 selected cities CSF, JGAM partners will have reported a 75% increase (from the 2008 baselines reported by each city) in the number of citizen groups participating in the planning process for Capital Investment Plans by the end of 2011/12. Progress to date: 6 cities out of 19 achieved 75% increase in 2009/10. 4.2 Enhance the While perceptions of corruption in Better targeted anti-corruption M43. Knowledge and m43. Diagnostics AAA accountability and Ethiopia differ considerably, there strategies consensus developed completed but consensus on Public Finance Review responsiveness of has been little systematic analysis I35. Satisfactory implementation over key corruption hotspots pending. (JBAR) government. of its nature, scope and incidence. of targeted anti-corruption hotspots by end- 2010. Partners (continued) The Bank will develop a new strategies to reduce corruption in DFID, Dutch, CIDA initiative with GoE and other key hotspots, as assessed at the end M44. Strategies m44. Strategies pending donors to diagnose corruption and of FY2011/12. developed in selected identification of hotspots. develop a targeted program of Progress to date: Strategies not areas by mid-2011. support. yet formulated. GoE is currently improving Greater transparency and citizen M45. All Regions m45. The use of AAA transparency around budgets and access to public information encourage posting of Standardized Service Decentralized Service spending, but concerns about I36. Layperson's Budget and Service Delivery Delivery Templates is Delivery transparency and access to public Service Facility Templates posted Templates in service behind the schedule as the On-going Lending information remain. The Bank will in +50% of woredas by the end of providers (schools, Templates are under PBS 2 continue to support government to 2011/12. health clinics, etc.). customization by regions. PSCAP improve transparency around Progress to date: Templates Training of trainers has Urban Local Government policy, planning, budgeting and finalized and posting begun. been completed and posting Development performance at all levels. I37. 19 selected cities disclose of customized templates New Lending budget and expenditure will start end of PBS 2 AF information by the end of 2011/12 FY2009/10. Partners from 0 in 2007/08. PBS, PSCAP partners, JGAM Progress to date: All 19 cities partners have disseminated key information to the public on budgets and expenditures for 2008/09 and 2009/10. 29 ANNEX 1: CAS Results Framework Longer-Term Development Agenda for Ethiopia Outcomes Influenced by the CAS Program by end Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 CAS Outcomes that the Bank Strategic and Longer- Issues/obstacles and Bank expects to influence and indicators Bank Assistance and Term Country Milestones strategy (the 21 CAS core outcomes are Progress to date Partners1 Outcomes bolded and shaded) Other Outcomes 5.1 Deepen Follow this approach to 21. Increase donor partnership M46. 66% of IDA m46. In 2007, 83% of IDA AAA partnerships strengthen dialogue and results through IDA-supported multi-donor support provided support was provided Coordination through focus, as well as rationalize the programs through programmatic through program-based Development Assistance Bank's program. I38. Paris Declaration target for approaches by 2010 approaches. Group and Sector Working 66% of donor support to be (Baseline: 59% in 2005). Groups provided through program-based Lending and new lending approaches is met by 2010, as Especially PSNP, Roads, measured by OECD (Baseline: PBS, PSCAP, Water Supply 53% in 2005). and Sanitation, SLM, GEQIP, Progress to date: According to Energy Access, AGP 2008 survey on monitoring the Partners Paris Declaration coordinated by All development partners OECD-DAC, 66% of donor Regional initiatives including support was provided through NEPAD/ Comprehensive program-based approaches in 2007. Africa Agriculture Development Program 5.2 Reinforce gender Importance of gender outcomes 22. Mainstream gender in IDA M47. All FY11 new m47. Monitoring to begin AAA sensitivity in for development has been supported programs. lending includes gender in FY11. Gender Study development activities. increasing, but implementing/ I39. All new lending in FY11-12 considerations in the Lending and new lending monitoring gender sensitivity includes gender considerations in PDO. PBS 2, PBS 2 AF, AGP, remains a challenge. With GoE the Project Development Objective FY12 program to be agreed. and development partners, the (the baseline is 0 and target is Partners Bank intends to mainstream 100%). All development partners gender considerations and help empower women through all operations. Progress to date: New Indicator. Monitoring to begin in FY11. 30 Annex 2: Revised Core CAS Outcomes, Indicators and Milestones Original Core CAS Outcome Key Changes 1. Structural and macroeconomic policies are Indicator target extended. conducive to sustain internal and external balance. 2. Strengthen road sector institutions and domestic Indicator revised to better reflect actual road construction industry. progress. 3. Enhance regional integration. Indictor on regional road network dropped because Bank financing is no longer needed. Indicator and milestone on Nile Basin Initiative revised to make them more concrete. 4. Creation of an enabling environment to make Outcome and indicator dropped due to slower growth corridor concept a reality. than expected implementation of the GOE strategy, and to reduce overlap with others. 5. Increased agricultural productivity. No change. 6. Small town development, rural and Outcome and indicator dropped due to the management and rural credit systems support absence of Bank support in this area. rural diversification. 7. Improve financial sector performance. No change. 8. Improve urban governance. Outcome and indicator consolidated with the outcome on improving the performance of the public sector. 9. Reduce cost of internet service. No change. 10. Improved investment climate helps Ethiopia No change. benefit from increased globalization. 11. Substantially achieve universal access to Changed outcome to: "Increase girls' primary education and increase girls' enrollment in primary and secondary enrollment. education" to better reflect what is being monitored through the CAS Results Matrix. Indicator targets adjusted to more realistic levels. 12. Increase sustainable access to potable water Indicator targets adjusted to more realistic and sanitation services. levels. 13. Increase delivery of key health services: Some indicator and milestone targets adjusted malaria and HIV/AIDS control, vaccination, to more realistic level. contraception. 14. Improve quality of education Indicator target adjusted to more realistic level. 15. Roll-out of kebele health extension package Indicator target adjusted to more realistic leads to improved services. level. 16. Greater use of community radios for improved No change. service deliver. 17. Increased PTA engagement in schools. Outcome and indicator dropped due to lack of data availability. 18. Reduce food insecurity. No change. Continued......... 31 Annex 2: Revised Core CAS Outcomes, Indicators and Milestones (continued) Original Core CAS Outcome Key Changes 19. Develop long-term strategy for food insecurity. No change. 20. Increase investment in community-based Indicators revised to clarify timeframe for watershed management. measurement. 21. Accelerate demographic transition. Indicator target date extended. 22. Improve access by women and youth to micro Changed outcome to "Increased voice women finance and technical support. within communities" and indicator revised to clarify what is being measured and align to indicator in use in ongoing operation. Milestone revised to reflect ongoing operations. 23. Improve performance of the public service. Indicator on perceptions of integrity of public service revised to integrate outcome on improving urban governance. 2008 baseline documented and target for 2011/12 added. Indicator derived from investment climate survey dropped to eliminate overlap with other indicators. 24. Greater capacity of local government to engage Indicator on participatory planning, budgeting with citizens for more responsive services. and monitoring in woredas narrowed to reflect the slow pace of implementation on the latter aspects. Baseline added. Milestone on procedures for citizen engagement revised to make it more concrete. Indicator on participatory planning, budgeting and monitoring in cities adjusted to reflect indicator in use in ongoing operations. Baseline added. 25. Ethiopian citizens are empowered by and Outcome and indicator consolidated with engage in development process. others that monitor community participation, including of women. 26. Increase donor harmonization through IDA- Changed outcome to "Increase donor supported multi-donor programs. partnership through IDA-supported multi- donor programs." Added a new outcome (outcome 22), "Mainstream gender in IDA supported programs." 32 Annex 3: Summary of Revised Core CAS Outcomes Focus Areas Core CAS Outcomes Strategic Objective 1: Fostering Economic Growth 1.1. Support macro-fiscal stability 1. Structural and macroeconomic policies are conducive to sustain internal and external balance 1.2. Accelerate the level and 2. Strengthen road sector institutions and domestic road productivity of investment in construction industry infrastructure in a sustainable 3. Enhance regional integration manner 1.3. Increase productivity of 4. Increase agricultural productivity in selected agriculture intervention areas 1.4. Strengthen supply 5. Improve financial sector performance responsiveness of industry and 6. Reduce cost of internet service services sectors 7. Improved investment climate helps Ethiopia benefit from increased globalization Strategic Objective 2: Improving Access to and Quality of Basic Service Delivery 2.1 Improve access/coverage of 8. Increase girls' enrollment in primary and secondary basic services education 9. Increase sustainable access to potable water and sanitation services 10. Increase delivery of key health services: malaria and HIV/AIDS control, vaccination, contraception 2.2 Enhance quality of basic 11. Improve quality of education services 12. Roll-out of the kebele health extension package leads to improved services 2.3 Enhance citizens' voice to 13. Greater use of community radios for improved service improve quality of basic services delivery Strategic Objective 3: Reducing Vulnerability 3.1 Reduce exposure to chronic food 14. Reduce food insecurity insecurity and shocks 15. Develop long-term strategy for food security 3.2 Address environmental 16. Increase investment in community-based watershed degradation and population management pressures 17. Accelerate demographic transition 3.3 Greater engagement of women. 18. Increased voice of women within communities Strategic Objective 4: Fostering Improved Governance 4.1 Improve government 19. Improve performance of the public service effectiveness and quality of public administration 4.2 Enhance the accountability and 20. Greater capacity of local government to engage with responsiveness of government citizens for more responsive services Other Outcomes 5.1 Deepen partnerships 21. Increase donor partnership through IDA-supported multi-donor programs 5.2 Reinforce gender sensitivity in 22. Mainstream gender in IDA supported programs development activities. 33 Annex 4. Progress Towards Achieving the MDGs Millennium Development Goals Ethiopia With selected targets to achieve between 1990 and 2015 (estimate closest to date shown, +/- 2 years) Ethiopia Goal 1: halve the rates for extreme poverty and malnutrition 1990 1995 2000 2008 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP, % of population) .. 60.5 55.6 39.0 Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population) .. 45.5 44.2 .. Share of income or consumption to the poorest qunitile (%) .. 7.2 9.2 9.3 Prevalence of malnutrition (% of children under 5) .. .. 42.0 34.6 Goal 2: ensure that children are able to complete primary schooling Primary school enrollment (net, %) 22 .. 38 71 Primary completion rate (% of relevant age group) .. 14 22 46 Secondary school enrollment (gross, %) 13 10 13 30 Youth literacy rate (% of people ages 15-24) .. 34 .. 50 Goal 3: eliminate gender disparity in education and empower women Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary education (%) 68 .. 65 83 Women employed in the nonagricultural sector (% of nonagricultural employment) .. .. 41 47 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament (%) .. 2 2 22 Goal 4: reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000) 204 179 151 119 Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) 122 107 92 75 Measles immunization (proportion of one-year olds immunized, %) 38 38 52 65 Goal 5: reduce maternal mortality by three-fourths Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) .. .. .. 720 Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total) .. .. 6 6 Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49) 4 .. 8 15 Goal 6: halt and begin to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS and other major diseases Prevalence of HIV (% of population ages 15-49) 0.7 2.4 2.4 2.1 Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) 159 229 331 378 Tuberculosis cases detected under DOTS (%) .. 15 31 28 Goal 7: halve the proportion of people without sustainable access to basic needs Access to an improved water source (% of population) 13 20 29 42 Access to improved sanitation facilities (% of population) 4 5 7 11 Forest area (% of total land area) .. 14.4 13.7 13.0 Nationally protected areas (% of total land area) .. .. .. 18.6 CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2005 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent) 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.3 Goal 8: develop a global partnership for development Telephone mainlines (per 100 people) 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.1 Mobile phone subscribers (per 100 people) 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 Internet users (per 100 people) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 Personal computers (per 100 people) .. .. 0.1 0.7 Education indicators (%) Measles immunization (% of 1-year ICT indicators (per 100 people) olds) 100 100 6 75 75 4 50 50 25 2 25 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1990 1995 2000 2007 Primary net enrollment ratio Fixed + mobile subscribers Ratio of girls to boys in primary & secondary Ethiopia Sub-Saharan Africa Internet users education Note: Figures in italics are for years other than those specified. .. indicates data are not available 2/25/10 Development Economics, Development Data Group (DECDG). 34 Annex 5. Ethiopia at a Glance Ethiopia at a glance 2/25/10 Sub- Key Development Indicators Saharan Low Ethiopia Africa income (2008) Population, mid-year (millions) 80.7 818 973 75-79 Surface area (thousand sq. km) 1,104 24,242 19,310 60-64 Population growth (%) 2.6 2.5 2.1 45-49 Urban population (% of total population) 17 36 29 30-34 GNI (Atlas method, US$ billions) 22.4 885 510 15-19 GNI per capita (Atlas method, US$) 280 1,082 524 GNI per capita (PPP, international $) 870 1,991 1,407 0-4 10 5 0 5 10 GDP growth (%) 11.3 5.0 6.4 percent of total population GDP per capita growth (%) 8.5 2.5 4.2 (most recent estimate, 2003­2008) Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000) Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP, %) 39 51 .. Poverty headcount ratio at $2.00 a day (PPP, %) 78 73 .. 250 Life expectancy at birth (years) 55 52 59 Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births) 75 89 78 200 Child malnutrition (% of children under 5) 35 27 28 150 Adult literacy, male (% of ages 15 and older) 50 71 72 100 Adult literacy, female (% of ages 15 and older) 23 54 55 Gross primary enrollment, male (% of age group) 97 103 102 50 Gross primary enrollment, female (% of age group) 85 93 95 0 42 58 67 1990 1995 2000 2007 Access to an improved water source (% of population) Access to improved sanitation facilities (% of population) 11 31 38 Ethiopia Sub-Saharan Africa a Net Aid Flows 1980 1990 2000 2008 Growth of GDP and GDP per capita (%) (US$ millions) Net ODA and official aid 211 1,009 686 2,422 20 Top 3 donors (in 2007): United States 19 50 130 372 10 European Commission 32 109 69 365 United Kingdom 4 35 11 292 0 -10 Aid (% of GNI) 3.4 8.4 8.5 12.6 Aid per capita (US$) 6 21 10 31 -20 95 05 Long-Term Economic Trends GDP GDP per capita Consumer prices (annual % change) 12.5 5.2 6.2 25.3 GDP implicit deflator (annual % change) 4.3 3.3 6.9 28.4 Exchange rate (annual average, local per US$) 2.1 2.1 8.1 9.6 Terms of trade index (2000 = 100) 131 151 100 94 1980­90 1990­2000 2000­08 (average annual growth %) Population, mid-year (millions) 35.4 48.3 65.5 80.7 3.1 3.0 2.6 GDP (US$ millions) 7,269 12,083 8,180 25,585 2.2 3.8 8.2 (% of GDP) Agriculture 60.7 54.3 49.9 44.5 0.9 2.6 6.8 Industry 10.6 11.1 12.4 13.2 3.7 4.1 9.2 Manufacturing 4.9 4.8 5.5 4.8 3.4 3.9 6.7 Services 28.8 34.5 37.8 42.4 3.9 5.2 9.5 Household final consumption expenditure 80.0 77.2 73.8 89.8 1.3 2.7 11.2 General gov't final consumption expenditure 9.8 13.2 17.9 9.8 4.0 9.0 1.0 Gross capital formation 14.5 12.9 20.3 20.1 4.9 6.5 10.0 Exports of goods and services 7.6 5.6 12.0 11.5 3.2 7.1 11.2 Imports of goods and services 11.9 8.8 24.0 31.2 3.2 5.8 16.1 Gross savings 10.8 11.9 16.2 15.0 Note: Figures in italics are for years other than those specified. 2008 data are preliminary. .. indicates data are not available. a. Aid data are for 2007. Development Economics, Development Data Group (DECDG). 35 Annex 5. Ethiopia at a Glance (Continued) Ethiopia Balance of Payments and Trade 2000 2008 (US$ millions) Governance indicators, 2000 and 2008 Total merchandise exports (fob) 486 1,462 Total merchandise imports (cif) 1,611 6,811 Voice and accountability Net trade in goods and services -976 -5,223 Political stability Current account balance -335 -1,491 as a % of GDP -4.1 -5.8 Regulatory quality Workers' remittances and Rule of law compensation of employees (receipts) 53 358 Control of corruption Reserves, including gold 349 1,239 0 25 50 75 100 Central Government Finance 2008 Country's percentile rank (0-100) higher values imply better ratings 2000 (% of GDP) Current revenue (including grants) 15.7 14.5 Source: Kaufmann-Kraay-Mastruzzi, World Bank Tax revenue 9.5 9.7 Current expenditure 20.6 9.3 Technology and Infrastructure 2000 2008 Overall surplus/deficit -9.4 -4.2 Paved roads (% of total) 12.0 12.8 Highest marginal tax rate (%) Fixed line and mobile phone Individual 35 35 subscribers (per 100 people) 0 5 Corporate 30 30 High technology exports (% of manufactured exports) 0.1 2.5 External Debt and Resource Flows Environment (US$ millions) Total debt outstanding and disbursed 5,495 2,882 Agricultural land (% of land area) 31 34 Total debt service 138 111 Forest area (% of land area) 13.7 13.0 Debt relief (HIPC, MDRI) 2,575 1,458 Nationally protected areas (% of land area) .. 18.6 Total debt (% of GDP) 67.2 11.3 Freshwater resources per capita (cu. meters) 1,767 1,551 Total debt service (% of exports) 13.1 3.6 Freshwater withdrawal (billion cubic meters) 5.6 .. Foreign direct investment (net inflows) 135 109 CO2 emissions per capita (mt) 0.09 0.11 Portfolio equity (net inflows 0 0 GDP per unit of energy use (2005 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent) 1.8 2.3 Energy use per capita (kg of oil equivalent) 286 291 Short-term, 56 Private, 239 IBRD, 0 World Bank Group portfolio 2000 2008 IDA, 859 (US$ millions) IBRD Total debt outstanding and disbursed 0 0 Bilateral, 985 IMF, 0 Disbursements 0 0 Principal repayments 0 0 Interest payments 0 0 Other multi- lateral, 743 IDA Total debt outstanding and disbursed 1,779 859 Disbursements 137 160 Private Sector Development 2000 2008 Total debt service 34 10 Time required to start a business (days) ­ 16 IFC (fiscal year) Cost to start a business (% of GNI per capita) ­ 29.8 Total disbursed and outstanding portfolio 0 0 Time required to register property (days) ­ 43 of which IFC own account 0 0 Disbursements for IFC own account 0 0 Ranked as a major constraint to business 2000 2008 Portfolio sales, prepayments and (% of managers surveyed who agreed) repayments for IFC own account 0 0 Tax rates 72.2 .. Tax administration 59.2 .. MIGA Gross exposure ­ ­ Stock market capitalization (% of GDP) .. .. New guarantees ­ ­ Bank capital to asset ratio (%) .. .. Note: Figures in italics are for years other than those specified. 2008 data are preliminary. 2/25/10 .. indicates data are not available. ­ indicates observation is not applicable. Development Economics, Development Data Group (DECDG). 36 Annex 6. Selected Indicators of Bank Portfolio Performance As of 5/5/2010 Indicator 2007 2008 2009 2010 Portfolio Assessment Number of Projects Under Implementation a 21 28 29 26 Average Implementation Period (years) b 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.5 Percent of Problem Projects by Number a, c 4.8 10.7 10.3 11.5 a, c Percent of Problem Projects by Amount 4.3 6.1 4.8 5.6 a, d Percent of Projects at Risk by Number 9.5 28.6 17.2 19.2 a, d Percent of Projects at Risk by Amount 5.8 30.0 7.5 21.5 Disbursement Ratio (%) e 27.6 26.7 49.3 28.1 Portfolio Management CPPR during the year (yes/no) No No Yes No Supervision Resources (total US$) 3,231 3,421 3,894 2,994 Average Supervision (US$/project) 154 122 134 115 Memorandum Item Since FY 80 Last Five FYs Proj Eval by OED by Number 66 13 Proj Eval by OED by Amt (US$ millions) 3,829.4 1,003.5 % of OED Projects Rated U or HU by Number 33.3 23.1 % of OED Projects Rated U or HU by Amt 22.1 16.3 Source: BW a. As shown in the Annual Report on Portfolio Performance (except for current FY). b. Average age of projects in the Bank's country portfolio. c. Percent of projects rated U or HU on development objectives (DO) and/or implementation progress (IP). d. As defined under the Portfolio Improvement Program. e. Ratio of disbursements during the year to the undisbursed balance of the Bank's portfolio at the beginning of the year: Investment projects only. * All indicators are for projects active in the Portfolio, with the exception of Disbursement Ratio, which includes all active projects as well as projects which exited during the fiscal year. 37 Annex 7. Summary of Nonlending Services As of 5/19/2010 Product Completion FY Cost (US$000) Audiencea Objectiveb Recent completions ROSC Accounting & Auditing FY08 79 G, D, B, P A, C Gender Study FY08 50 G, D, B, P A, B, C Climate Change FY08 80 G, D, B, P A, B, C Regional Growth Study FY08 502 G, D, B, P A, C Public Finance Review (JBAR) FY08 179 G, D, B, P A, B, C Investment Climate FY08 243 G, D, B, P A, B, C Health Financing Policy Note FY08 71 G, D, B A, C Education & Nutrition Linkages FY08 255 G, D, B, P A, C Macro Fiscal Issues Growth FY09 79 G, D, B, P A, B, C Public Finance Review-Water FY09 90 G, D, B, P A, B, C Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) FY09 317 G, D, B, P A, B, C Telecom Reform Options FY09 43 Public Private Forum FY09 30 G, D, B, P A, C Rural (ICA) FY09 60 G, D, B, P A, C Capacity Building TA FY10 29 G, D, B, P A, B, C Urban Poverty FY10 69 G, D, B, P A, B, C Rural Safety Net FY10 10 G, D, B, P A, C Financial Sector Review FY10 60 G, D, B, P A, B, C Urban Safety Net FY10 38 G, D, B, P A, B, C Procurement Reforms FY10 51 G, D, B, P A, C Underway and Planned Public Expenditure Review 2011 FY11 75 G, D, B, P A, B, C Innovation for Development FY11 200 G, D, B, P A, B, C Land Administration FY11 21 G, D, B A, C Climate Change Adaptation FY11 280 G, D, B, P A, B, C Roads Rural Access Development FY11 141 G, D, B, P A, C Public Expenditure Review 2012 FY12 50 G, D, B, P A, B, C Tourism Sector Competitiveness FY12 38 G, D, B, P A, B, C Decentralized Service Delivery FY12 320 G, D, B, P A, C Country Fiduciary Assessment FY12 50 G, D, B A, C Regional Growth FY12 37 G, D, B, P A, C Service Trade & Growth FY12 22 G, D, B A, C a. Government, donor, Bank, public dissemination. b. Knowledge generation, public debate, problem-solving. 38 Annex 8. Key Economic Indicators Actual Estimate Projected Indicator 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 National accounts (as % of GDP) a Gross domestic product 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Agriculture 47 48 47 51 51 43 43 43 43 Industry 13 13 13 11 11 13 14 14 14 Services 40 39 40 38 39 44 43 43 43 Total Consumption 97 98 94 97 96 96 97 96 95 Gross domestic fixed investment 24 25 26 23 22 25 25 25 25 Government investment 15 17 19 16 17 17 18 18 17 Private investment 9 8 7 6 6 8 7 8 8 b Exports (GNFS) 15 14 13 11 11 11 13 14 16 Imports (GNFS) 35 37 32 31 29 33 35 35 36 Gross domestic savings 3 2 6 3 4 4 3 4 5 c Gross national savings 18 16 21 17 17 17 16 18 18 Memorandum items Gross domestic product 12307 15164 19553 26675 32033 31012 32370 34506 36504 (US$ million at current prices) GNI per capita (US$, Atlas method) 160 190 220 280 340 380 400 400 410 Real annual growth rates (%, calculated from 00 prices) Gross domestic product at market prices 11.8 10.8 11.5 10.8 8.7 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.6 Gross Domestic Income 13.4 12.3 11.6 12.0 9.9 9.6 7.8 7.9 8.1 Real annual per capita growth rates (%, calculated from 00 prices) Gross domestic product at market prices 9.0 8.0 8.6 7.9 5.9 5.4 5.3 5.0 5.0 Total consumption 17.9 11.4 4.6 13.5 6.4 7.3 5.4 3.1 4.5 Private consumption 19.9 12.0 5.7 14.6 8.8 4.9 5.3 2.9 4.5 Balance of Payments (US$ ) b Exports (GNFS) 1858 2105 2489 3060 3381 3535 4128 4905 5863 Merchandise FOB 847 1001 1188 1462 1448 1685 1872 2120 2400 b Imports (GNFS) 4367 5549 6268 8282 9241 10133 11403 12028 13045 Merchandise FOB 3633 4593 5128 6811 7727 8707 9758 10211 11091 Resource balance -2509 -3443 -3779 -5223 -5859 -6598 -7275 -7124 -7181 Net current transfers 1807 2095 2895 3699 4281 4310 4393 4693 5086 Current account balance -738 -1386 -871 -1491 -1620 -2397 -2991 -2597 -2290 Net private foreign direct investment 150 365 482 815 880 1056 1133 1208 1290 Long-term loans (net) 271 80 239 704 1533 1469 2064 1514 1220 Official 375 303 337 341 378 435 328 231 120 Private -104 -224 -98 364 1155 1034 1737 1283 1100 Other capital (net, incl. errors & ommissions) 528 545 318 -448 -175 249 63 0 0 d Change in reserves -211 397 -168 420 -617 -377 -269 -125 -219 Memorandum items Resource balance (% of GDP) -20.4 -22.7 -19.3 -19.6 -18.3 -21.3 -22.5 -20.6 -19.7 Real annual growth rates ( 2000 prices) Merchandise exports (FOB) 17.6 4.5 10.7 0.6 -1.0 2.8 7.5 10.4 -10.3 Primary .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Manufactures 15.6 -1.5 -3.4 -1.5 -36.7 -57.6 23.2 7.6 7.6 Merchandise imports (CIF) 26.6 15.8 2.8 10.9 22.1 14.3 7.6 2.7 7.3 39 Annex 8. Key Economic Indicators (Continued) Actual Estimate Projected Indicator 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Indicator e Public finance (as % of GDP at market prices) Current revenues 17.5 16.8 15.8 14.3 14.9 16.0 15.1 15.3 15.7 Current expenditures 12.4 11.6 10.0 9.2 8.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.3 Current account surplus (+) or deficit (-) 5.1 5.2 5.8 5.2 6.8 6.9 6.1 6.3 6.4 Capital expenditure 10.9 10.7 10.7 9.7 9.1 10.4 10.8 10.9 10.5 Foreign financing 3.7 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.3 3.0 Monetary indicators M2/GDP 38.0 36.1 33.1 28.1 24.9 25.5 25.6 26.4 27.5 Growth of M2 (%) 19.6 17.4 19.7 22.9 19.9 17.1 18.3 18.4 19.0 Private sector credit growth / 30.1 42.2 38.0 23.5 62.9 45.2 23.6 34.2 35.9 total credit growth (%) Price indices( 2000 =100) Merchandise export price index 84.8 95.8 102.7 125.7 125.7 142.4 147.1 150.9 190.4 Merchandise import price index 108.9 119.0 129.2 154.8 143.9 141.8 147.7 150.5 152.4 Merchandise terms of trade index 77.8 80.5 79.5 81.2 87.4 100.4 99.6 100.2 124.9 f Real exchange rate (US$/LCU) 45.4 48.1 50.0 62.0 57.8 .. .. .. .. Real interest rates Consumer price index (% change) 6.8 12.3 15.8 25.3 36.4 5.6 8.4 6.6 6.1 GDP deflator (% change) 9.9 11.6 17.2 30.5 24.4 6.0 9.0 6.5 6.2 a. GDP at factor cost b. "GNFS" denotes "goods and nonfactor services." c. Includes net unrequited transfers excluding official capital grants. d. Includes use of IMF resources. e. Consolidated central government. f. "LCU" denotes "local currency units." An increase in US$/LCU denotes appreciation. 40 Annex 9. Key Social Indicators Latest single year Same region/income group Sub- Saharan Low- 1980-85 1990-95 2002-08 Africa income POPULATION Total population, mid-year (millions) 41.0 57.0 80.7 819.3 976.2 Growth rate (% annual average for period) 3.0 3.3 2.6 2.5 2.1 Urban population (% of population) 11.5 13.9 17.0 36.4 28.7 Total fertility rate (births per woman) 7.0 6.8 5.3 5.1 4.0 POVERTY (% of population) National headcount index .. .. .. .. .. Urban headcount index .. .. .. .. .. Rural headcount index .. .. .. .. .. INCOME GNI per capita (US$) 190 150 280 1,077 523 Consumer price index (2000=100) 37 73 190 127 132 Food price index (2000=100) 49 94 92 .. .. INCOME/CONSUMPTION DISTRIBUTION Gini index 32.4 40.0 29.8 .. .. Lowest quintile (% of income or consumption) 8.6 7.2 9.3 .. .. Highest quintile (% of income or consumption) 41.3 47.7 39.4 .. .. SOCIAL INDICATORS Public expenditure Health (% of GDP) .. .. 2.2 2.6 2.3 Education (% of GDP) 2.4 3.3 5.5 4.1 3.4 Net primary school enrollment rate (% of age group) Total .. 24 78 73 80 Male .. 27 81 75 82 Female .. 20 75 70 78 Access to an improved water source (% of population) Total .. 20 42 58 67 Urban .. 79 96 81 86 Rural .. 10 31 46 60 Immunization rate (% of children ages 12-23 months) Measles 12 38 74 72 78 DPT 6 57 81 72 80 Child malnutrition (% under 5 years) .. .. 35 25 27 Life expectancy at birth (years) Total 44 49 55 52 59 Male 43 48 54 51 58 Female 46 51 57 53 60 Mortality Infant (per 1,000 live births) 126 108 69 86 76 Under 5 (per 1,000) 212 180 109 144 118 Adult (15-59) Male (per 1,000 population) 491 448 339 395 295 Female (per 1,000 population) 401 358 297 362 254 Maternal (modeled, per 100,000 live births) .. .. 720 900 790 Births attended by skilled health staff (%) .. .. 6 46 44 Note: 0 or 0.0 means zero or less than half the unit shown. Net enrollment rate: break in series between 1997 and 1998 due to change from ISCED76 to ISCED97. Immunization: refers to children ages 12-23 months who received vaccinations before one year of age or at any time before the survey. World Development Indicators database, World Bank - 23 April 2010. 41 Annex 10. Key Exposure Indicators Actual Estimated Projected Indicator 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total debt outstanding and 6204 2273 2620 2882 3137 3462 3790 4021 4141 a disbursed (TDO) (US$m) a Net disbursements (US$m) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Total debt service (TDS) 93 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. a (US$m) Debt and debt service indicators (%) b TDO/XGS 299.8 98.9 90.6 82.4 .. .. .. .. .. TDO/GDP 50.4 15.0 13.4 10.8 9.8 11.2 11.7 11.7 11.3 TDS/XGS 4.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Concessional/TDO 83.4 66.7 72.8 76.8 82.5 87.6 89.1 90.2 91.1 IBRD exposure indicators (%) IBRD DS/public DS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Preferred creditor DS/public 53.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. c DS (%) IBRD DS/XGS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. d IBRD TDO (US$m) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Of which present value of guarantees (US$m) Share of IBRD portfolio (%) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. d IDA TDO (US$m) 3359 553 711 859 1028 1296 1534 1742 1888 IFC (US$m) Loans Equity and quasi-equity /c MIGA MIGA guarantees (US$m) a. Includes public and publicly guaranteed debt, private nonguaranteed, use of IMF credits and net short- term capital. b. "XGS" denotes exports of goods and services, including workers' remittances. c. Preferred creditors are defined as IBRD, IDA, the regional multilateral development banks, the IMF, and the Bank for International Settlements. d. Includes present value of guarantees. e. Includes equity and quasi-equity types of both loan and equity instruments. 42 Annex 11. Operations Portfolio As Of 9/13/2010 Closed Projects 96 IBRD/IDA * Total Disbursed (Active) 1,490.90 of w hich has been repaid 0.00 Total Disbursed (Closed) 2,483.38 of w hich has been repaid 161.74 Total Disbursed (Active + Closed) 3,974.27 of w hich has been repaid 161.74 Total Undisbursed (Active) 1,971.54 Total Undisbursed (Closed) 0.00 Total Undisbursed (Active + Closed) 1,971.54 Active Projects Difference Between Last PSR Expected and Actual Supervision Rating Original Amount in US$ Millions Disbursements a/ Development Implementation Project ID Project Name Fiscal Year IDA GRANT Cancel. Undisb. Orig. Frm Rev'd Objectives Progress P101556 ETElect. Access Rural II SIL (FY07) MS MS 2008 130 124.93 110.31 P113220 ET Productive Safety Nets (APL III) S S 2010 480 356.56 P079275 ET Cap. Building for Agric. Serv (FY06) S S 2006 54 13.00 5.66 5.81 5.53 P106228 ET Ethiopia Nutrition SIL (FY08) MS MS 2008 30 24.42 16.62 P090789 ET Sustainable Land Management (FY08) MS S 2008 9.00 7.11 P091077 ETAPL3RSDP Stage III Proj (FY07) S S 2007 225 175.97 65.62 P097271 ETElectricity Access (Rural) Expansion S S 2006 133.4 68.73 60.89 P049395 ETEnergy Access SIL (FY03) S S 2003 312.7 224.92 20.39 P077380 ETGEF Energy Access Prj (FY06) S S 2006 4.93 3.18 3.18 P106855 ETGeneral Educ Quality Improv. (FY09) S MS 2009 50 36.54 14.08 P092353 ETIrrigation & Drainage SIL (FY07) S S 2007 100 10.00 69.75 68.47 P098031 ETMultiSectoral HIV/AIDS II (FY07) MS MS 2007 30 5.00 5.08 9.28 0.20 P108932 ETPastoral Community Develpt II (FY08) S MS 2008 80 49.60 12.03 P103022 ETProtect. Basic Serv. Phase II (FY09) S S 2009 540 47.92 9.49 P074020 ETPub Sec Cap Bldg Prj (FY04) S S 2004 150 20.00 47.22 18.50 P106872 ETRSDP Stage IV APL (FY09) S S 2009 245 238.59 2.61 P082998 ETRoad Sec Dev Prgm Ph 2 Supl 2 (FY05) S S 2005 348.2 135.01 59.65 15.70 P107139 ETSustainable Land Mngt SIL (FY08) MS S 2008 20 15.02 4.30 P096323 ETTana &Beles Int. Wat Res Dev Project MS MU 2008 45 36.42 13.64 P098132 ETTourism Develop. Project SIL S S 2009 35 31.67 1.18 P101474 ETUrban Local Govt Development (FY08) S S 2008 150 86.08 13.31 P101473 ETUrban WSS SIL FY07) S MU 2007 100 70.72 35.29 P076735 ETWater Sply & Sanitation SIL (FY04) S MS 2004 180 13.00 100.19 31.09 P074011 ET/Nile Basin Initiative:ETSU Interconn MS MS 2008 41.05 14.86 13.31 P050272 Priv Sec Dev CB S S 2005 24 7.00 5.67 11.92 7.19 Overall Result 3503.35 13.93 68.00 1,981.83 284.27 13.83 Source: BW 43 Annex 12. Ethiopia Trust Fund (TF) Portfolio Proj. ID Project Name TF # Approved Amt Sign Date Closing Disbursed Amt Undisbursed Amt Date FY08-10 P050383 ET Food Security Cofinancing Project TF 51169 5,146,637 12-Mar-03 30-Jun-10 1,531,008 2,161,921 P050383 Ethiopia Food Security Project TF 52696 15,003,432 6-Sep-04 30-Jun-10 1,650,699 8,525,715 P049395 ET Women Fuelwood Carriers TF 54213 1,860,650 12-Aug-05 31-Aug-10 753,976 906,674 P077380 GEF-ENERGY ACCESS PROJECT TF 56092 4,930,000 28-Apr-06 30-Jun-11 1,456,202 3,223,798 P074015 Protection of Basic Services TF 56885 177,453,647 21-Jun-06 30-Jun-09 8,353,647 0 Managing and Enforcing Intellectual Property Rights: Creating a Driver of P101929 Growth TF 57338 496,000 2-Oct-06 1-Oct-10 288,521 157,479 P074015 Protection of Basic Services TF 56942 87,847,500 26-Oct-06 31-Dec-10 72,095,163 5,769,462 P098428 Humbo and Soddo Community-Based Natural Regeneration Project TF 56939 189,850 28-Dec-06 30-Jun-10 123,858 65,992 P074015 Protection of Basic Services TF 57683 8,025,896 2-May-07 30-Jun-09 8,025,896 0 P098093 Productive Safety Nets APL II TF 58248 113,846,332 12-Jun-07 30-Apr-10 92,997,788 20,848,544 P079275 Rural Capacity Building Project TF 90084 9,547,921 20-Jun-07 30-Sep-10 5,142,437 4,405,483 P074015 Protection of Basic Services TF 90445 390,314,870 22-Jun-07 30-Jun-09 290,814,870 0 P091077 ET-Road Sector Dev. Stage III Proj. (APL3) in support of Govt's RSDP TF 56516 1,542,375 31-Dec-07 31-Dec-10 325,704 1,216,671 P076735 Ethiopia Water Supply and Sanitation Project TF 91704 111,675,531 9-Apr-08 31-Dec-12 25,709,666 85,965,865 A. Total grant signed before the CAS but active during the CAS Period 927,880,640 509,269,437 133,247,604 P090789 ET-Sustainable Land Management Program TF 92320 9,000,000 16-Jul-08 30-Sep-13 1,523,426 7,476,574 P105651 Ethiopia Electricity Access Rural Expansion, Phase II - GPOBA TF 92600 6,200,000 30-Oct-08 31-Dec-11 - 6,200,000 P105651 Ethiopia Electricity Access Rural Expansion, Phase II - GPOBA TF 92601 1,800,000 30-Oct-08 31-Dec-11 - 1,800,000 P106855 General Education Quality Improvement Project - APL 1 (GEQIP) TF 93227 70,000,000 21-Nov-08 30-Jun-10 36,500,000 33,500,000 P114843 PHRD Ethiopia: Cluster Development Program TF 93486 240,000 16-Feb-09 3-Nov-11 106,790 133,210 P115788 Development Marketplace for the African Diaspora in Europe Winning Project TF 93792 53,982 6-Apr-09 31-Jan-11 45,073 8,910 P114913 ET: Flood risks prevention in Ethiopia TF 93300 315,000 25-May-09 30-Jun-12 - 315,000 P103022 Ethiopia Protection of Basic Services Program Phase II TF 94641 194,926,392 19-Jun-09 31-Dec-11 194,926,392 0 P106855 General Education Quality Improvement Project - APL 1 (GEQIP) TF 94224 14,960,000 24-Jul-09 13-Jun-13 14,960,000 0 P106228 ET-Community-Based Management of Severe Acute Malnutrition TF 93946 1,810,434 14-Aug-09 14-Aug-13 - 1,810,434 P096323 ET: Tana & Beles Integrated Water Resources Development TF 95045 3,484,679 31-Aug-09 30-Sep-13 1,000,000 2,484,679 P117216 ET: Forest Carbon Partnership Facility Readiness Grant TF 94541 200,000 2-Sep-09 31-Dec-10 100,000 100,000 P103022 Ethiopia Protection of Basic Services Program Phase II TF 95106 14,449,440 14-Sep-09 30-Jun-12 - 14,449,440 P098093 ET: Productive Safety Nets APL II TF 95296 28,261,351 21-Oct-09 30-Jun-10 28,261,351 0 P115154 Ethiopia Statistical Capacity Building: Data Systems and Economy TF 95746 167,596 8-Apr-10 30-Apr-11 - 167,596 B. Total grant signed during CAS period 345,868,874 277,423,032 68,445,842 Total A+B 1,273,749,514 786,692,469 201,693,446 NB In addition $21m were provided to cover the Bank -Executed activities during that period. 44 Annex 13. IFC Program and Portfolio Ethiopia: IFC Investm ent Operations Program 2008 2009 2010 2011* Com m itm ents (US$m ) Gross 55.00 5.29 Net** 55.00 5.29 Net Com m itm ents by Sector (%) EQUITY 100 LOAN 100 Total 100 0 100 0 Net Com m itm ents by Investm ent Instrum ent (%) Equity 100 Loan 100 Total 100 0 100 0 * As of March 31, 2011 ** IFC's Ow n Account only Ethiopia Committed and Disbursed Outstanding Investment Portfolio As of 8/31/2010 (In USD Millions) Com m itted Disbursed Outstanding FY **Quasi **Quasi Approval Com pany Loan Equity Equity *GT/RM Participant Loan Equity Equity *GT/RM Participant 2008 Dmc 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2010 Nyota 0 5.05 0 0 0 0 5.04 0 0 0 Total Portfolio: 55 5.05 0 0 0 0 5.04 0 0 0 * Denotes Guarantee and Risk Management Products. ** Quasi Equity includes both loan and equity types. 45