65359 v2 Guide to Climate Change Adaptation in Cities © 2011 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank This guide is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this guide do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. front cover photo: Agosto / The World Bank back cover photo: Scott Wallace / The World Bank Contents Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 2. Climate Change Impacts on Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 3. Framing Adaptation in Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 4. Developing a Roadmap for Adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 5. Informal Settlements, the Urban Poor, and Other Vulnerable Groups . . . . . . . . . 45 6. Sector-Specific Adaptive Responses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 7. Financing Adaptation in Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 8. Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Appendix: The Basics of Climate Change Science . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Foreword / Acknowledgments Foreword Climate change is a serious challenge for cities around the world, particularly in developing countries where urbanization is happening at neck- breaking speed. It threatens to increase vulnerabilities, destroy economic gains, and hinder social and economic development. And the urban poor will bear the brunt of its effects since they live and work in informal settlements that are more exposed to hazards. Building resilience and adapting to climate change is increasingly a high priority for cities. Besides mitigation, on which efforts have largely focused in the past, cities should today play a larger role in adaptation. The World Bank and various other development institutions are working with cities to strengthen their capacity to assess vulnerability to climate change impacts and to identify corresponding plans and investments to increase their resilience. This guide on climate change adaptation in cities is intended to offer mayors and other city officials, in developing countries, practical guidance on how to respond to the challenges of climate change adaptation in their cities. It provides a comprehensive overview of key climate adaptation issues that are relevant to cities, offers examples of good practices and successful experiences, and is a useful guide to other available resources and policy tools on the topic. The guide focuses on disaster risk management, the urban poor and other vulnerable groups, and access to climate finance. It builds up on the World Bank and its partners’ research and experience in dealing with cities and climate change—mainly the 5th Urban Research Symposium, and the Mayors Task Force on Climate Change, Disaster Risk and the Urban Poor. Zoubida Allaoua Director Finance, Economics and Urban Development The World Bank 1 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities Acknowledgments This guide is a product of the Urban Development and Local Government Unit of the World Bank, and benefited from the support of the Trust Fund for Environmentally & Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD) made available by the governments of Finland and Norway. It was developed as part of the UNEP–UN-HABITAT– World Bank joint work program on cities and climate change, through the Cities Alliance. Preparation of this guide involved a core team at the World Bank that included Marcus Lee (Task Team Leader), Elizabeth Willmott (Coordinating Lead Author), Alexandra Le Courtois, Julianne Baker Gallegos, and Namita Datta. Content for chapters 3, 4, and 7 was contributed by Missy Stults, Alden Feldon, Daniella Hirschfeld, Kim Brokhof, Lucinda Fairhurst, and Sunandan Tiwari of ICLEI. Content for chapters 4 and 6 was also contributed by Eric Chu, Justin Bates, Melissa Schrock, Miriam Solis, and Julia Tierney of MIT, with Hannah Lee of Harvard, under the overall guidance of JoAnn Carmin at MIT. Valuable comments and inputs were received from the peer reviewers, Ellen Hamilton, Robin Mearns, and Federica Ranghieri, as well as from other World Bank colleagues including Anthony Bigio, Ana Bucher, Soumya Dharmavaram, Daniel Hoornweg, Ari Huhtala, Akiko Nakagawa, Poonam Pillai, David Treguer, and Cheryl Young. A wide range of partners and experts also provided important comments and feedback, including James Listorti, Ricardo Jimenez (Cities Alliance), Christoph Pusch and Ankur Ravi Shah (GFDRR), JoAnn Carmin and Eric Chu (MIT), Adriana de Aguinaga and Paul Reddel (PPIAF), Tamer Gharara (RCDRR), Raf Tuts and Bernhard Barth (UN-HABITAT), and Loy Rego (UNISDR). The content of chapter 6 benefited from review by the following sectoral experts, through ICLEI: Paul Kirshen, Susanne Moser, Lindene Patton, Paty Romero-Lankao, and Matthias Ruth. The original concept and TFESSD proposal for this work was developed by Sandra Cointreau, who led initial tasks that included a set of background papers prepared by Radley Horton, Earl Kessler, Dominique Lallement, James Listorti, David Major, Alex Ruane, and Oesha Thakoerdin. Additional guidance for refining the scope and outline for this guide was received at a consultation held in South Africa in late 2010, attended by Elana Keef, Flora Mokgohloa, Mayor T.P. Moyo, Cecilia Njenga, Deborah Ramalope, and David Uushona. Production of the guide was coordinated by Alexandra Le Courtois, with Carollyne Hutter as editor, and design services provided by Corporate Visions. Much appreciation is due to Adelaide Barra, Vivian Cherian, and Gracia Sorensen for their excellent support to the World Bank team. Finally, thanks go to Zoubida Allaoua, Marianne Fay, Abha Joshi-Ghani, and Daniel Hoornweg for their leadership, guidance and support. 2 executive summAry Executive Summary Cities face significant impacts from cli- mate change, both now and into the future. These impacts have potentially serious consequences for human health, livelihoods, and assets, especially for the urban poor, informal settlements, and other vulnerable groups. Climate change impacts range from an increase in extreme weather events and flooding to hotter temperatures and public health concerns. Cities in low-elevation coastal zones, for instance, face the combined threat of sea-level rise and storm surges. The specific impacts on each city will depend on the actual changes in climate experienced (for example, higher temperatures or increased rainfall), which will vary from place to place. Climate change will increase the frequency at which some natural hazards occur, espe- cially extreme weather events, and intro- duce new incremental impacts that are less immediate. However, few climate impacts will be truly unfamiliar to cities. Cities have always lived with natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, and flooding. In some photo: Baloncici / iStockPhoto.com 3 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities situations, cities will experience an increase in adapt effectively to existing and future climate Entry points other than DRR, such as development the frequency of existing climate-related hazards, impacts, while also experimenting and innovating planning, can also be used for adaptation efforts such as flooding. in policy making and planning. in cities. Climate change adaptation is the process Increasing resilience in cities involves Approaches to collecting information on cli- of preparing for, and adjusting proactively addressing basic poverty reduction and mate change impacts in a city can range from to, climate change—both negative impacts sustainable development goals. Instead of highly technical and resource-intensive, to as well as potential opportunities. Cities are seeing vulnerability to climate impacts as an simple and inexpensive. Technically complex often the first responders to climate impacts. additional concern, cities can mainstream assessments are likely to require collaboration Because cities are dynamic systems that face resilience into existing efforts. Many cities with external experts, if a city is not large or unique climate impacts, their adaptation must are challenged by rapid urbanization, expansion well-resourced with sufficient in-house capacity. be location specific and tailored to local circum- of informal settlements, substantial poverty, Cities can look to local universities or regional stances. The starting point in managing risks and inadequate infrastructure, and environmen- collaborations, supplemented by international ex- building long-term resilience is for a city to under- tal degradation. These and other concerns (the pertise, if needed. Community-based participatory stand its exposure and sensitivity to a given set “development deficit�) constrain cities’ ability to approaches can integrate community perspectives of impacts, and develop responsive policies and grow and prosper. Many of these same conditions and priorities, improving understanding of the so- investments that address these vulnerabilities. also limit resilience to current climate variability cial and locally specific consequences of climate (the “adaptation deficit�). change. Taking a combined or tiered approach can A resilient city is one that is prepared for yield assessments of impacts that are grounded existing and future climate impacts, thereby Climate change considerations can be in community priorities and supported by sound limiting their magnitude and severity. Once integrated with disaster risk reduction science. an impact occurs, a resilient city is able to (DRR) in cities. DRR efforts—already familiar to respond quickly and effectively, in an equitable many—may be used as a platform from which to An increasing number of cities around the and efficient way. Building resilience requires not develop climate change adaptation plans. In prac- world have begun to plan for climate change only robust decision making by those in positions tical terms, disaster risk reduction and climate by developing stand-alone climate plans or of formal authority, but also a strong web of insti- adaptation can be integrated in many instances, incorporating climate considerations into tutional and social relationships that can provide although cities should also consider incremental existing plans, policies, and projects. City a safety net for vulnerable populations. Through or gradual changes in climate that affect govern- officials are making major development decisions both formal planning activities and informal ment operations or community life in less immedi- today that will have long legacies, offering im- preparations, cities can build their capacity to ate and visible ways than conventional disasters. portant and time-sensitive opportunities to adapt. 4 executive summAry Addressing climate change adaptation through investments in climate change adaptation. including considering the benefits of improving the formal planning or policy-making process This makes the evaluation and prioritization of po- security of tenure and service provision in infor- can make an effort more durable in the long term, tential adaptive responses all the more important. mal settlements. In pursuing such efforts, it is especially for a city in which a commitment to Cities can apply tools to identify and prioritize important to fully recognize the resourcefulness addressing climate change is largely based on a which proposed adaptive actions to pursue, as of the informal sector in cities. few public officials. Informal efforts, as well as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of these initiatives that do not address climate change actions once implementation is underway. Based Climate change adaptation in cities requires explicitly but still contribute to resilience, can also on these analyses, cities can identify “no-regrets� collaborative problem solving and coordina- be valuable starting points. actions that generate net social or economic tion across sectors. Cities are well positioned benefits independent of climate change. Low-cost to act as conveners of a wide range of partners. Adaptation efforts in cities offer cobenefits actions can include short-term clearing of solid Climate change will have impacts on many sectors: for climate change mitigation and for local waste from urban waterways to prevent localized land use, housing, transportation, public health, economic development. Green building invest- flooding because of clogged drains and public water supply and sanitation, solid waste, food ments, for instance, provide natural cooling to awareness efforts to share information about security, and energy (see Table 6.1 for a sample occupants in times of extreme heat, while also emergency evacuation and public health risks. of climate impacts and corresponding adaptive reducing greenhouse gas emissions and offering responses in cities). Adaptation efforts in any of benefits in terms of energy efficiency and cost Climate change will place unique burdens these sectors will often involve multiple govern- savings. More broadly, adaptation investments in on the urban poor, residents of informal ment agencies, as well as broad partnerships that cities, such as those that increase the resilience settlements, and other vulnerable groups, include other governments, local communities, and reliability of urban infrastructure, can improve such as women, children, the elderly and nonprofit organizations, academic institutions, broader economic performance by increasing city disabled, and minority populations. To build and the private sector. competitiveness and attractiveness for investors resilience among these vulnerable groups, a city and the private sector in general. can do the following: 1) raise awareness about Financing adaptation in cities will involve specific climate change impacts on the most drawing upon a combination of sources. Cities can identify simple and low-cost (or vulnerable; 2) include vulnerable groups in the Climate finance is a complex field, and adaptation- no-cost) actions that can be implemented adaptation planning and policy-making process; 3) specific funding is still relatively limited. Sources to increase resilience in their day-to-day incorporate community-based adaptation into city of concessional finance are mostly structured for operations. At the same time, given resource plans, when appropriate; 4) support organizations access at the national level, posing an additional constraints and competing priorities, many that already work with the vulnerable groups; and challenge for cities. Opportunities that cities can cities may be able to pursue only a few large 5) strengthen land administration and regulation, consider include the following: 1) existing own- 5 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities source revenues and tools and national sources of municipal finance; 2) grant resources and concessional finance from multilateral or bilateral institutions; and 3) market-based mechanisms to increase efficiency and the involvement of the pri- vate sector. Cities can use funding for adaptation to pilot new tools, scale up and catalyze action, and leverage more funding from other donors or the private sector. In summary, adaptation is not a one-time effort but an ongoing cycle of preparation, response, and revision. It is a dynamic process, and one that should be revised over time based on new information. Underpinning the strongest adaptation processes will be leadership and com- mitment to measuring progress and assessing effectiveness. This will help ensure that cities invest scarce resources in truly adaptive ways and achieve the maximum cobenefits, while avoiding unintended consequences. Those cities that are able to integrate adaptation well with a broad spectrum of existing planning processes and goals—including priorities in disaster risk reduction, sustainable development, and poverty reduction—will be best positioned to thrive in this new era of climate change. 6 1. introduction 1. Introduction Why this Guide? Cities—especially in developing countries—are on the front lines of climate change impacts. These impacts range from an increase in extreme weather events and flooding to increased air temperatures and public health concerns. Climate change affects both human well-being and the economy, posing threats to the livelihoods and assets of people living in cities. Most vulnerable to these impacts are poor residents, the elderly, women, children, and communities living on the margins of society. If climate change impacts are left unaddressed, they stand to exacerbate existing challenges and make it more difficult for cities and countries to achieve sustainable development and reduce poverty. Achieving these goals for individuals, families, and whole cities requires adapting to a changing climate. Cities and their residents stand to gain far more by starting to adapt today, rather than by waiting or not taking action at all. photo: MPau / iStockPhoto.com 7 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities Adaptation to climate change is within practical challenges facing informal settlements, the urban This guide is neither a technical document nor reach even for cities and communities that have poor, and other vulnerable groups. a description of a single methodology or tool. resource constraints. Many tools are already Instead, it provides high-level insights on how available for cities to adapt—by leveraging This guide specifically addresses an audience of to develop a robust picture of climate change existing work in disaster risk reduction, pursuing mayors and municipal practitioners in develop- vulnerabilities that is also grounded in pressing assessments of urban vulnerability that involve ing countries. These leaders and managers community priorities, by consulting with both and prioritize the poor, and learning from adapta- face various existing challenges in running their technical advisors and community stakeholders. tion strategies that have already been tested in cities—from waste disposal to policing to public Various methodologies and tools are described in other parts of the world. At the same time, those health. When considered in light of these ongoing this guide to help city practitioners gain familiarity cities that develop and implement sound agendas activities, climate change can be an opportunity with the range of available resources. The guide for climate change resilience can reap additional for positive change and action in cities, rather points to further resources for those readers wish- benefits in the areas of green growth and poverty than a competing priority for scarce resources. ing to learn more. alleviation. With this context in mind, this guide uses disaster Based on direct feedback from stakeholders, this risk reduction—a familiar framework for many guide also shows how climate change can be cities worldwide—as a practical starting point for Objectives and Focus of climate change adaptation. Although the fields of linked to other important city issues, such as eco- nomic development, public health, sustainability, this Guide disaster risk reduction and climate change adapta- and food security. Rather than providing prescrip- tion have different origins and different practices, tions in any of these areas, the guide provides This guide aims to provide cities in developing practitioners can find areas of convergence (see actual examples of actions that have been taken countries with practical insights on climate Chapter 3). Given resource and time constraints, at the local level to spark ideas, innovation, and change adaptation. A number of documents cities can find cost-effective ways to integrate knowledge exchange. Although this guide does already provide valuable information for cities disaster and climate risk reduction activities at not represent an exhaustive collection of best on how to prepare for climate change impacts, all stages, including vulnerability assessments, practices, and is not a step-by-step or how-to both in general and for specific sectors. Building planning and prioritization of adaptive strategies, handbook, it offers relevant tips and general prin- on existing sources, this guide seeks to address implementation, and measurement of success. ciples based on the experiences of others around climate change adaptation for cities in develop- ing countries with an additional discussion of the world to guide locally tailored action. 8 1. introduction „„ Describes the different stakeholders and „„ Describes how cities can move from planning Overview of this Guide’s institutional actors that need to be involved to action, including assessing the effective- Structure in adaptation, as well as mechanisms for ness of existing policies in light of new organizing an adaptation effort. This section information and developing new responses Chapter 2 provides brief background information includes information on how different to build resilience. This includes evaluating on how climate change is expected to affect cities stakeholders have adapted both formally and adaptive actions, understanding the around the world, with disproportionate impacts informally. robustness of policies in different scenarios, on cities in developing countries. and setting indicators to measure progress Based on these foundational concepts, Chapter over time. Chapter 3 introduces the concept of adapta- 4 then shows how localities can develop road- tion—the process by which cities prepare for the maps for adaptation, and how climate change Chapter 5 focuses on what cities can do to build specific impacts that they expect to face. More adaptation could change the way cities operate. the resilience of informal settlements, the urban specifically, it: Specifically, it: poor, and other vulnerable groups. Chapter 6 „„ Provides reasons why cities should analyzes and gives examples of city-level adapta- „„ Gives a range of tips and tools, including proactively undertake an adaptation process, tion in the areas of land use, housing, water and basic vulnerability and risk assessments— which mayors and local leaders can use sanitation, public health, transportation, food both technical and participatory—to help as material when explaining or justifying and agriculture, energy, and solid waste. Chapter cities develop a better understanding of adaptive actions. 7 provides a simple overview of the financing climate change risks and impacts. This „„ Defines resilience, adaptation, and related mechanisms available to cities to fund these section furnishes information on the features “building block� concepts, including hazards, adaptation responses. Appendix I contains infor- of each type of tool. risk, exposure, sensitivity, and vulnerability. mation on the basics of climate change science. „„ Provides an overview of formal upstream „„ Shows how adaptation relates to disaster actions that cities can take to respond risk reduction and poverty alleviation, and to climate change, including examples of shares principles to guide the adaptation actual climate plans and policies that may be process. models to consider. 9 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities 2. Climate Change Impacts on Cities This chapter provides a brief overview of climate change impacts on cities, informal settlements, and the urban poor. Further material is available in Appendix I, which contains more detailed information on the science of climate change, including the following: an overview of weather and climate change; concepts related to projec- tions of future climate change impacts; and an overview of potential climate change impacts in different regions of the world. In addition, Chapter 4 provides a number of resources for cities to find and understand information on climate change. The Range of Climate Change Impacts on Cities Cities already face significant climatic and en- vironmental challenges that are independent of climate change, such as the following (adapted from Rosenzweig and others 2011): „„The urban heat island effect—cities are generally warmer than surrounding rural areas because of higher heat absorption and 10 photo: Chris Stowers / Panos Pictures 2. Climate Change impaCts on Cities relatively limited cooling associated with location (for example, sea level rise as a threat for „„ Energy transmission and distribution may be vegetation and permeable surfaces coastal cities) (World Bank 2009). overstressed because of increased incidence or duration of summer heat waves, in „„Air pollution, which is exacerbated by high Changes in climate will in turn have a range of conjunction with energy demand for cooling. temperatures short-term and long-term consequences for cit- „„ Cities may also experience greater „„ Existing climate extremes, such as ies—on human health, physical assets, economic activities, and social systems—depending on how in-migration from rural inhabitants pressured hurricanes and typhoons (although the exact well prepared a city is and how it responds. Table by drought or other climate extremes. relationships with climate change have yet to be fully established) 2.1 summarizes some possible impacts of climate „„ Climate change is increasingly being change on cities, based on IPCC projections for discussed as an emerging global Nonclimate related trends, such as land subsid- the mid- to late 21st century (these projections security issue—a threat to the well-being, ence, can also be drivers of risk for natural hazards, do not account for any changes or developments safety, and survival of people around the such as flooding, as noted in a World Bank study of in adaptive capacity), and the Assessment Report world—although more evidence is needed three Asian coastal megacities (World Bank 2010a). on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3) (Rosenzweig to understand the nature of this relationship and others 2011). (Barnett and Adger 2005; IISD 2011). In conjunction with these existing issues, the im- pacts of climate change on cities will depend on In addition to direct impacts on cities, climate Chapter 6 provides more information on the the actual changes in climate experienced, such change will also affect cities indirectly through ef- energy and food supply impacts for cities. as higher temperatures and increased rainfall. fects on areas and systems outside of cities. The These will vary from place to place. For example, following are some examples (the list is adapted Cities are also economically vulnerable to climate cities in low-elevation coastal zones with land from Rosenzweig and others 2011 and IPCC 2007, change, not least because of high population subsidence may be affected by rising sea levels except where noted): density and concentrated economic wealth. In the and storm surges. Cities in hot climates (or in tem- absence of action, the expected costs to cities „„ Water quality and quantity may be perate regions with hot summers) may be affected are high (see Chapter 7). Examples of historical by longer and more severe heat waves. The World reduced by expected increases in droughts, and estimated costs of climate-related disasters Bank’s Climate Resilient Cities primer (available especially from sources (for example, include the following: at www.worldbank.org/eap/climatecities) provides snowpack) outside of city borders, with „„ Hurricane Katrina was estimated to cost the guidance on how cities can scope possible cli- a host of consequences from threatened drinking water supply to reduced agricultural United States over $100 billion (NOAA 2011). mate change impacts based on their geographic production that affects food security in cities „„ Changed tropical cyclone activity resulting (also see Chapter 6). from climate change could cost between $28 11 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities Table 2.1 Possible imPacTs of climaTe change on ciTies Projected Change in Climate Consequences Geographic Locations Phenomena (Likelihood) for Cities Most Affected Warmer with fewer cold days and nights, Exacerbation of the urban heat island effect, leading to increased risk of heat-related mortality and illness, All, especially inland cities and cities more hot days and nights (virtually especially for the elderly, chronically sick, very young, and socially isolated reliant on snowpack for water supply certain) Increased demand for cooling, and reduced energy demand for heating Hot spells/heat waves — increased Declining air quality in cities frequency (very likely) Greater stress on water resources, including those that rely on snowmelt, from increased water demand, declining water quality Wider geographical incidence of vector-borne diseases (for example, malaria spreading to higher-altitude cities) Less disruption to transport from snow or ice Heavy precipitation events— increased Flooding, strong winds, and landslides Coastal cities, those on riverbanks or frequency (very likely) marginal land in floodplains, mountainous Disruption of public water supply and sewer systems, and adverse effects on quality of surface and groundwater regions Intensity of tropical cyclone activity Damage and losses to physical assets and infrastructure: houses, public facilities, utilities increases (likely) Increased risk of deaths, injuries, and illnesses (especially water-borne diseases) Disruption of transport, commerce, and economic activity Withdrawal of risk coverage in vulnerable areas by private insurers Water stress may be relieved (short-term benefit) Areas affected by drought increase Greater stress on water resources, from increased water demand, declining water quality All, especially cities in regions unused to (likely) arid conditions Reduced energy supply from hydropower generation Land degradation, with lower agricultural yields and increased risk of food shortages, and dust storms Potential for population migration from rural to urban areas Rising sea level (virtually certain) Permanent erosion and submersion of land; and costs of coastal protection or costs of relocation Coastal cities Decreased groundwater availability because of saline intrusion into aquifers Exacerbated effects of tropical cyclones and storm surges, particularly coastal flooding Note: As per IPCC, virtually certain refers to > 99 percent probability, very likely refers to > 90 percent probability, and likely refers to > 66 percent probability. Sources: Adapted from IPCC 2007 as cited in World Bank 2009; other sources include Rosenzweig and others 2011; World Bank 2009; UNEP 2009; Rosenzweig 2010. 12 2. Climate Change impaCts on Cities billion and $68 billion globally per year by Table 2.2 consequences of some RecenT DisasTeRs in infoRmal seTTlemenTs: The PhiliPPines 2100 (World Bank 2010b). Disaster Event Year Consequences „„ In Manila, Bangkok, and Ho Chi Minh City, Trash slides at the 2000 Heavy rains from typhoons caused a 15-meter slope in the dump to collapse, burying costs of damage from climate change-related hundreds of homes. Because of these events, 288 people were killed and several Payatas solid waste flooding are likely to be substantial, ranging dump in Quezon City hundred families displaced. Subsequent flash floods affected the homes and livelihoods of many more people. from 2 to 6 percent of regional GDP; a Landslide in Barangay 2006 The whole barangay (district) was buried and another 80 barangays affected. A total 1-in-30 year flood in Manila could cost of 154 deaths were recorded, 968 people reported missing, 3,742 displaced and 18,862 Guinsaugon between $900 million and $1.5 billion, given affected. current flood control infrastructure (World Mount Mayon mudflow 2006 Typhoons triggered huge floods, mudslides and avalanches. In the Bicol region alone, at and floods least 208 people died and another 261 were reported missing. These settlements were Bank 2010a). recovering from a previous typhoon. For city governments in general, climate change Flash flood in Iloilo 2008 In the city of Iloilo, 152 of its 180 barangays were affected by heavy rain and flooding. Up to 500 people were killed, and 261,335 were affected. Many houses were washed away impacts will alter the environment in which and many households lost their documentation. residents live and agencies operate. Subsequent Source: IFRC 2010. chapters of this guide describe how cities can better understand the specific impacts on their poor—an increasing number of whom are mi- „„ Structural quality and durability of dwellings cities and suggest actions that cities can take to grants from areas affected by climate change im- „„ Security of tenure (UN-HABITAT 2006; respond to these impacts. pacts—tend to live in marginal areas of the urban UN-HABITAT 2008) landscape: on steep slopes, along riverbanks and As a direct result, many of these people live with transportation corridors, and in floodplains. Climate Change Impacts a constant risk to their lives and homes from disasters, such as storms, floods, landslides, heat Related to Urban Poverty People living in informal settlements (numbering nearly one billion worldwide, or nearly one-third waves, and droughts. A number of disasters in and Informal Settlements of the world’s urban population) often lack the the Philippines listed in Table 2.2 highlight how following critical living conditions: impacts of climate-related disasters on informal Rapid urbanization because of population growth settlements have major consequences for housing and migration from rural areas, combined with „„Access to improved water among the urban poor. lack of affordable housing, has been associated „„Access to improved sanitation facilities with the development of informal settlements „„ Sufficient living area (not more than three Residents of informal settlements often lack on marginal land in and near cities. The urban people sharing a room) the resources to invest in improving their living 13 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities environments. It can be extremely difficult for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007. Network. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University them to minimize the risk of economic losses and Summary for Policymakers in Impacts, Adaptation Press. other impacts from disasters. Climate change and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Stern, Nicholas. 2006. Stern Review on the Economics impacts can, thus, lead to a deepening and Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, by University Press. broadening of poverty for those already living at or M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der below the poverty line. Chapter 5 explores these UCLG. 2011. http://www.cities-localgovernments.org Linden and C.E.Hanson, eds. Cambridge, UK and concerns in further detail. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. 2009. Global Environment Outlook 3: State of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Environment and Policy Responses, 1972-2002. 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ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability. 2011a. http://www.epa.gov/heatisld/resources/ 909-911. “ICLEI Homepage.� http://www.iclei.org compendium.htm Rosenzweig, Cynthia, William Solecki, Stephen ICLEI. 2011b. “World Mayors and Local Governments _____. 2011. “What is an Urban Heat Island?� http:// A. Hammer, and Shagun Mehrotra, eds. 2011. Climate Protection Agreement.� http://www. www.epa.gov/heatisld/about/index.htm Climate Change and Cities: First Assessment globalclimateagreement.org/ Report of the Urban Climate Change Research WMCCC. 2011. http://www.worldmayorscouncil.org 14 2. Climate Change impaCts on Cities World Bank. 2009. Climate Resilient Cities: A Primer on Reducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters. Washington, DC: World Bank. www.worldbank.org/eap/ climatecities _____. 2010a. Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities: A Synthesis Report. http://sit- eresources.worldbank.org/EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/ Resources/226300-1287600424406/coastal_mega- cities_fullreport.pdf. Washington DC: World Bank. _____. 2010b. Natural Hazards, Unnatural Disasters. http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/sites/gfdrr.org/files/ nhud/files/NHUD-Overview.pdf. Washington, DC: World Bank. _____. 2010c. Citation of IEA, 2008. “Cities and Climate Change: An Urgent Agenda.� Washington DC: World Bank. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ INTUWM/Resources/340232-1205330656272/ CitiesandClimateChange.pdf 15 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities 3. Framing Adaptation in Cities Climate change adaptation consists of “initia- tives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects� (IPCC 2007). Both through informal preparations and formal planning activities, cities can build their resilience and capacity to adapt to existing and future cli- mate change impacts. This chapter provides an overview of the reasons for cities to take a proactive approach to climate change adaptation. It then describes some basic adaptation concepts, the relationship between adaptation and disaster reduction, and the roles that different actors can play in adaptation. Why Adapt? Adaptation is a smart option for cities in develop- ing countries. The reasons outlined below are adapted from UN-HABITAT’s Local Leadership for Climate Action principles and ICLEI’s Climate Resilient Communities program (UN-HABITAT 2010; ICLEI 2009). 16 photo: Vladimir Melnik / Shutterstock Images 3. Framing adaptation in Cities 1. It is certain that global, regional, and 3. Major development decisions taken marginal land can result in far higher costs local climates will change in the future today in cities have long-term impli- years down the road, if and when disaster (Hansen 2005). In many parts of the world, cations, offering important and time- strikes. Conversely, one dollar of prevention the climate is already noticeably different sensitive opportunities to adapt. Paying today can avoid as much as four dollars of from historical climate. Climate change has for prevention upfront can avoid greater costs post-disaster reconstruction expenditure in the serious direct and indirect impacts on cities in the future. For example, building on low-cost, future (GFDRR 2010). (see Chapter 2). 2. Climate change can affect a city’s abil- box 3.1 The WoRlD DeveloPmenT RePoRT 2010 ity to achieve existing development Building the capacity of local places, ecosystems, and people to adapt to climate change is a critical component goals. Many cities in developing countries of achieving the vision and intent of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The World Development Report face significant challenges in providing safe 2010 identified six key messages for adapting to climate change, while promoting development: and affordable housing, supplying quality Poverty reduction and sustainable development remain core global priorities. A quarter of the drinking water and basic sanitation, provid- population of developing countries still lives on less than $1.25 a day. One billion people lack clean drinking ing energy to businesses and residents, water; 1.6 billion, electricity; and 3 billion, adequate sanitation. A quarter of all developing-country children are malnourished. Addressing these needs must remain the priorities both of developing countries and of ensuring safe and livable communities, development aid—recognizing that climate change can hamper the achievement of these goals. and fostering an environment for economic success. Climate change and its associated Climate change must be addressed urgently. Climate change threatens all countries, with developing countries being the most vulnerable. impacts can jeopardize progress in meeting these needs. As the World Development Economic growth alone is unlikely to be sufficiently fast or equitable to counter threats from Report 2010 noted, “development will get climate change, particularly if economic growth remains carbon-intensive and accelerates climate change. Climate policy cannot be framed as a choice between growth and avoiding climate change. harder, not easier, with climate change� (see In fact, climate-smart policies are those that enhance development, reduce vulnerability, and finance the Box 3.1). This is true even in areas where transition to low-carbon growth paths. progress has already been achieved. For A climate-smart world is within our reach if steps are taken to act now, act together, and act example, severe flooding could lead to indi- differently than in the past. rect impacts (such as a localized increase in water-borne diseases) that had been previ- An equitable and effective global climate deal is needed. ously reduced by improved sanitation. Success hinges on changing behavior and shifting public opinion. Source: World Bank 2010a. 17 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities 4. Planning for future variability is not concerns are also helpful in coping with cli- of both adaptation and mitigation measures new and can help cities to capture sus- mate change impacts—as many projected can yield financial advantages, such as tainable development and disaster risk climate change impacts are more extreme, lower insurance rates and increased access reduction benefits today. For thousands unpredictable, or frequent versions of what to grant and concessional financing oppor- of years, humans have adapted to their en- is already experienced today. Strategically tunities. Chapter 7 provides more detail on vironments. In modern societies, adaptation planning for a range of climate change financing related to city-level adaptation. can be considered part of a city’s existing impacts can create opportunities to reduce decision-making process. Despite uncertain- existing vulnerability. For example, imple- ties on the specific future impacts of climate menting a water conservation program in Basic Concepts Related to change, cities can make informed decisions anticipation of increased future drought risk Adaptation about how to increase resilience and adapt can offer immediate benefits for managing Cities have always experienced natural hazard based on best available information (Dessler current droughts. events, some which are not climate related (such and Parson 2010). Cities may also find that 5. Adaptation can offer cobenefits for as earthquakes and tsunamis) and some which effective strategies to manage present-day climate change mitigation, and a are climate related (such as hurricanes and flood- well-balanced city climate agenda can ing). These hazard events may become disasters, DEFInITIOnS OF SOME KEy TERMS increase opportunities for accessing depending on the magnitude, location, and Exposure refers to the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to climate finance. Some actions can reduce severity of impact on lives, livelihoods, and overall significant climatic variations (IPCC 2001). greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while societal functioning. Climate change is expected Sensitivity refers to the degree to which a built, natural, or human system is helping cities to adapt to expected climate to increase the frequency and severity of climate- directly or indirectly affected by changes in climate conditions (for example, change. Energy efficiency, for example, is a related hazard events, including extreme weather, temperature and precipitation) or specific climate-change impacts (for example, sea-level rise and increased water temperature). If a system is likely to be affected common strategy to reduce GHG emissions, and to introduce new incremental impacts that as a result of projected climate change, it should be considered sensitive to climate while also decreasing electricity consump- are less obvious and immediate. change (Snover and others 2007). tion, thereby reducing vulnerability to grid Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to and unable to overload and outages. Likewise, water Many cities face existing challenges related to cope with the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability urban poverty, basic service delivery, and inad- and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of conservation not only reduces emissions by climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, as well as the system’s avoiding energy use for water treatment and equate infrastructure that represent barriers to sensitivity and adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007). distribution, but also helps a city prepare for sustainable development—the “development Adaptive capacity refers to the capabilities, resources, and institutions of a future climate-related shortages. Moreover, deficit.� Many of these same conditions also country or region to implement effective adaptation measures (IPCC 2007). limit resilience to disasters and existing climate pursuing a climate agenda with a balance 18 3. Framing adaptation in Cities variability (the existing “adaptation deficit�), as (World Bank 2010c). Examples of analytical work well as to more extensive and long-term climate Integrating Climate that address DRR and climate change adaptation change (World Bank 2010b). Change Adaptation with jointly are the Climate Resilient Cities Primer Just as cities assess, manage, and limit the risks Disaster Risk Reduction (World Bank 2009) and a more recent study on North African coastal cities (see Box 3.2). UNISDR of disasters in order to protect their populations, Efforts to build resilience in cities can benefit from has also integrated the two approaches in its they can similarly address the risks of climate integrating climate change adaptation with exist- ongoing global campaign for resilient cities (see change impacts. Managing these risks—and ing efforts in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and Box 3.3). building long-term resilience—involves under- other similar planning processes. As the report standing the level of exposure and sensitivity Natural Hazards, Unnatural Disasters articulates, Table 3.1 summarizes the differences between to a given set of impacts, developing policies and cities can overcome greater exposure to climate DRR and climate change adaptation, as well as ar- investments that will limit vulnerabilities, and change and hazard events through sound risk eas of convergence. A combined DRR-adaptation enhancing adaptive capacity. management—a significant and challenging task approach might involve the following: A resilient city is one that is able to adapt to disaster and climate impacts now and in the box 3.2 aDaPTaTion To climaTe change anD naTuRal DisasTeRs in The coasTal ciTies of noRTh afRica future, thereby limiting the magnitude and sever- An ongoing regional study funded by the World Bank and implemented in conjunction with the Arab Academy ity of those impacts. Once an impact occurs, a of Science, Technology and Maritime Transportation illustrates the intertwining of climate change and disaster resilient city is able to evolve cost-effectively and risks. One of the underlying drivers of climate and hazard vulnerability in the Egyptian city of Alexandria, for equitably for all stakeholders. Building resilience example, is the “continuing urban expansion in new sites exposed to natural hazards.� By 2030, Alexandria towards climate change requires robust decision faces a “medium risk of marine submersion and coastal erosion, and a comparatively lower risk of earthquake, making by those in positions of formal authority, tsunami, flooding, and water scarcity� as well as a potential uptick in diarrheal diseases and malaria, because as well as a strong web of institutional and social of climate change. It is further estimated that “natural disasters and climate change impacts would cost the city relationships that provides formal and informal of Alexandria approximately $1.72 billion (in net present value terms) during 2010 to 2030…� related to water scarcity, earthquake-related damages, and public health concerns of which “climate change-related impacts safety nets for the most vulnerable populations. are estimated to be around 18 percent of the total estimated cost.� The study made integrated climate change Full definitions of the terms mentioned above are and natural disaster risk assessments of Casablanca and the Bouregreg Valley in Morocco, and the city of Tunis, Tunisia, based on highly detailed urban risk maps using digitized elevation models, satellite imagery, and GIS provided in the glossary. software. More information is available at http://arabworld.worldbank.org and www.cmimarseille.org. Source: World Bank 2010d. 19 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities box 3.3 unisDR “Ten essenTials� foR DisasTeR Risk ReDucTion In May 2010, UNISDR launched the global campaign “Making Cities Resilient—My 4. Invest in and maintain critical infrastructure that reduces risk, such as flood City is Getting Ready!� to promote increased understanding and commitment by drainage, adjusted where needed to cope with climate change. cities and local governments to risk reduction and to build cities that are resilient to 5. Assess the safety of all schools and health facilities and upgrade these as disasters and climate change. necessary. The overall target of the campaign is to get as many cities as possible committed to 6. Apply and enforce realistic, risk-compliant building regulations and land- disaster risk reduction and to span a global network of engaged cities, provinces, and use planning principles. Identify safe land for low-income citizens and develop municipalities of different sizes, characteristics, risk profiles, and locations that can help upgrading of informal settlements, wherever feasible. and learn from each other. Building on the Hyogo Framework for Action, a “ten-point 7. Ensure education programs and training on disaster risk reduction are in place checklist� for making cities resilient (or benchmarking the level of disaster resilience in in schools and local communities. cities) is the guiding framework for commitments and for identifying good practice, tools, and resources in support of resilient cities. The ten principles include the following: 8. Protect ecosystems and natural buffers to mitigate floods, storm surges, and other hazards to which your city may be vulnerable. Adapt to climate change by 1. Put in place organization and coordination to understand and reduce disaster building on good risk reduction practices. risk, based on participation of citizen groups and civil society. Build local alliances. Ensure that all departments understand their role regarding disaster risk reduction and 9. Install early warning systems and emergency management capacities in preparedness. your city and hold regular public preparedness drills. 2. Assign a budget for disaster risk reduction and provide incentives for homeown- 10. After any disaster, ensure that the needs of the survivors are placed at the ers, low-income families, communities, businesses, and public sector to invest in center of reconstruction with support for them and their community organiza- reducing the risks they face. tions to design and help implement responses, including rebuilding homes and livelihoods. 3. Maintain up-to-date data on hazards and vulnerabilities, prepare risk assess- ments, and use these as the basis for urban development plans and decisions. A handbook for mayors and local government leaders entitled Making Cities Safer and Ensure that this information and the plans for your city’s resilience are readily Resilient—Before Disasters Strike (forthcoming in 2011) provides guidance on imple- available to the public and fully discussed with them. menting the UNISDR “Ten Essentials.� More information on “My City is Getting Ready!� campaign and the handbook is available online at: http://www.unisdr.org/campaign. Source: UNISDR 2010. 20 3. Framing adaptation in Cities Table 3.1 iniTial DiffeRences anD aReas of conveRgence beTWeen DisasTeR Risk ReDucTion (DRR) anD climaTe change aDaPTaTion Differences Areas of Convergence Disaster Risk Reduction Climate Change Adaptation Relevant to all hazard types. Relevant to climate-related hazards. Climate-related hazards may in many cases be a worsening of current hazards, some of which may already be the focus of DRR. Historically focused on humanitarian assistance following a Historically rooted in scientific theory. Climate change adaptation (CCA) specialists now recruited from engineering, disaster event; increasingly focused on prevention, mitigation and water and sanitation, agriculture, health, and DRR sectors. preparedness, including changes to development processes. Both DRR and CCA need to be mainstreamed into development decision processes. Most concerned with the present—i.e., addressing existing risks. Most concerned with the future—i.e., addressing uncertainty/new risks. DRR increasingly forward-looking. Existing climate variability is an entry point for climate change adaptation. Traditional/indigenous knowledge at community level is one basis Traditional/indigenous knowledge at community level may be insufficient Examples where integration of scientific and traditional knowledge for DRR for preparedness and resilience. for resilience against types and scales of risks that are yet to be provide learning opportunities. experienced. Structural measures designed for safety levels modeled on current Structural measures designed for safety levels modeled on predicted DRR increasingly forward-looking in design of structural measures and safety and historical evidence and risk tolerance. changes, current and historical evidence, and risk tolerance. Some standards. adaptation measures might address maladaptation from initial responses to disasters that are not sustainable or cost-effective in the long term. Traditional focus on vulnerability reduction and societal Traditional focus on reduction of physical exposure through infrastructure There is an increasing focus in climate change adaptation on community- preparedness. investments (for example, sea walls). focused vulnerability assessments that include measurement and improvement of social resilience. Community-based process stemming from experience, technical Community-based process stemming from policy agenda. Communities do not tend to differentiate between current and projected risks, inputs, and external support. presenting an opportunity to build resilience to both at the same time. Full range of established and developing tools (for example, Limited range of tools under development, evolving and expanding rapidly. Increasing recognition that more adaptation tools are needed, especially those legislation and institutional arrangements, early warning systems, that leverage DRR experience. insurance, building design codes, siting, and ecosystem protection). Political and widespread recognition often quite weak. Political and widespread recognition increasingly strong. Climate-related disaster events are now more likely to be analyzed and debated with reference to climate change . Funding streams ad hoc and insufficient. Funding streams dedicated but still small relative to the problem. DRR community engaging in climate change adaptation funding mechanisms. Adapted from Venton and La Trobe 2008; Cronin 2004; UNISDR 2003. 21 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities „„ Understanding vulnerabilities to existing „„ Ensuring that planning and decision making ciTy goveRnmenTs aRe ofTen fiRsT patterns of disaster risks, especially climate- include strategies for dealing with disasters ResPonDeRs anD PRimaRy local related hazards and climate hazards of both today and tomorrow PlanneRs „„ Working with vulnerable groups to City governments are responsible for decisions understand and prioritize their existing „„ Ensuring structural measures are designed and actions related to the delivery of a wide concerns for future climate risks, based on likely range of services that ensure the well-being climate change scenarios „„ Compiling information on future changes in of their citizens: land use planning and zoning; climate and how these are likely to affect Chapter 4 describes some of the assessment tools water provision, sanitation, and drainage; hous- historical disaster patterns of occurrence that cities can use to undertake the above steps. ing construction, renovation, and regulation; and/or create new patterns and locations of economic development; public health and emer- disaster occurrences gency management; transportation provision; „„Analyzing less visible climate changes, The Roles of City and environmental protection. Many of these formal functions position cities well to undertake such as seasonal shifts, persistent drought, extended periods of extreme weather and Governments and Others adaptation, because many services are vulnerable temperature, and other slow-onset or in Adaptation to disruption from climate change impacts, and incremental changes that can be nonetheless because planning functions can serve as sources Adaptation can be undertaken by an individual for destructive of adaptive capacity and strategies to reduce his or her own benefit, or it can consist of actions vulnerability. „„ Ensuring enhanced levels of preparedness by governments and public bodies to protect for current patterns of climate risks and all their citizens (Adger 2005). Adapting to natural Cities can take a major step toward sound devel- hazards hazards—or in less optimal cases, reacting to opment and climate change resilience simply by them—is not new for many individuals, families, instituting and enforcing stronger management and cities around the world. Protecting liveli- principles—a very substantial undertaking that ThE IMPACT OF GOOD GOVERnAnCE In PhnOM PEnh, CAMBODIA hoods, assets, and access to such basic services does not lend itself to consistently easy solutions. as energy and water is a natural response when Independent of climate change, many cities face By instituting efficient management practices and replacing underperforming staff at the Phnom Penh Water Supply Authority (PPWSA), this public utility in Cambodia dealing with disasters and climate hazards. significant obstacles in fulfilling their functions increased its daily production of drinkable water by 360 percent. Reduced corrup- because of long-standing problems with gover- tion has also helped the PPSWA to increase revenue and provide significantly more of Phnom Penh’s residents with access to clean water (The Economist 2011). nance, such as corruption, lack of transparency, and weak administration. These issues can hinder 22 3. Framing adaptation in Cities the achievement of long-term development goals and mutually beneficial partnerships among experts maintain a team that is dedicated to climate in general (World Bank 2007). and stakeholders at multiple levels. change adaptation, in which case city officials may find that partnerships with civil „„ Some cities can consider starting a climate Cities tend to face two major needs in this area— society organizations can offer a strategic first, a basic assessment of institutional capacity, leadership team within the government capacity-sharing benefit. Even cities that do and second, development of a shared understand- (see Box 3.4). Significant progress can be have robust internal capacity, however, may ing of roles and responsibilities that different actors made by simply encouraging departments find that a partnership provides an op- can play in executing an adaptation agenda. A city to communicate openly with one another portunity to catalyze improved coordination can begin to address these needs by developing an about climate change impacts and shared and innovation among individuals, groups, institutional map of the different actors that may be adaptation strategies. and city governments. In fact, because cities involved in an adaptation effort, how they function „„ External partnerships can also be useful may face problems related to climate change in reality, and any capacity gaps that may remain to in several ways. Some cities may not impacts that originate outside of jurisdictional be filled. The World Bank’s Climate Resilient Cities have the internal capacity to create and boundaries, they may find it critical to engage Primer provides a useful series of worksheets to support this type of exercise, and the World Bank’s forthcoming Urban Risk Assessment includes an box 3.4 foRming a climaTe leaDeRshiP Team institutional assessment component. Several basic elements are necessary for successful city leadership to set the course for climate change adapta- tion. These include the following: ciTy goveRnmenTs can Play „„ Political support, representing high-level commitment to adaptation, initiated and sustained by executive imPoRTanT caTalyTic anD convening leadership of a mayor or other city officials, and supported by effective public communication Roles in aDaPTaTion „„ Operational knowledge of the rules and norms of city operations, as well as relationships to city and There are many ways to organize and govern an external actors who may need to be involved in adaptation efforts adaptation process, whether with a dedicated „„ Scientific expertise or competency, with which city staff can translate science into sound advice for climate change unit in the mayor’s office or in the decision makers environment agency, an inter-agency task force of Some cities may find these ingredients within their organizations, while others will look to outside partners. the city government, or a wider stakeholder group Many cities may not have all the capacity needed within the city government itself, and could work instead as beyond the city government itself. In all of these ap- conveners to develop capacity-sharing partnerships among experts, city staff, and other stakeholders. proaches, city governments are well positioned to Source: Authors. be an integrating force, fostering communications 23 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities Table 3.2 common acToRs involveD in aDaPTaTion Actor Roles Examples of Partnership in Cities Academic Provide information on scientific developments, vulnerability, and The World Bank’s Regional Study on Adaptation to Climate Change and Natural Disasters in the Coastal Cities of North Africa is one and Scientific information on potential policy responses. example of university participation in climate change adaptation (see Box 3.2). Organizations Community-Based Can be helpful intermediaries, especially when led by influential In Viacha, Bolivia, local community members from 13 barrios elected two representatives to a new association, the Viacha Flood Victims Organizations and individuals who know how to navigate local social networks. Association (Asociacion de Damnificados de Viacha-ADV), in response to torrential rains and floods. The organization coordinates actions Small Businesses with local officials to channel resources and manage relief donations. May already be implementing adaptive management responses, whether formally or informally. Governments Departments or individual actors often serve as first responders to Four cities in El Salvador and another from Honduras formed an inter-municipality association in response to Hurricane Mitch. The climate-related hazards and primary planners for hazard mitigation or association serves as a platform for dialogue, as well as disaster response and relief coordination. disaster risk reduction. India’s National Disaster Response Plan was formed by the High Powered Committee (HPC) on Disaster Management with the direct Engage in planning of a wide range of vulnerable built and natural approval of the Prime Minister, led by a former Secretary to the Government of India. With a clear mandate from the Prime Minister, the systems that affect the well-being of city residents. planning process involved in-depth consultation of all affected ministries and departments, and initiated the formation of State and District plans “in order to bring about cohesiveness and uniformity.� Enforce stronger management policies to improve good governance. Convene adaptation partnership among other cities; county, regional, state and federal entities; adjacent towns; special districts; and commissions (for example, for public schools, water, and energy). International Support advocacy and dialogue about adaptation. The Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre “raises awareness; advocates for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction; and Nongovernmental integrates relevant information about climate change risks into Red Cross Red Crescent strategies, plans and activities.� This includes Offer strategic advice and technical assistance to cities on mitigation Organizations educational programs to help national governments around the world alert communities to increasing risks from climate change. and adaptation. Learning networks, such as Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network, funded by the Rockefeller Foundation and facilitated by the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET). More information is available online at: http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/ what-we-do/current-work/developing-climate-change-resilience/asian-cities-climate-change-resilience/. CARE offers an online information center on climate change, including publications and community stories about adaptation, as a supporting partner of the Adaptation Learning Mechanism. CARE also provides direct services and support to communities, ranging from water provision in Zambia and sanitation in Delhi informal settlements. Mercy Corps is pursuing climate change adaptation through its 32 country offices, in recognition that climate change may exacerbate poverty and conflict in the countries and communities where the organization operates. One of the organization’s primary efforts has been to develop partnerships with universities to develop effective ways of integrating climate change data in conflict analysis. continued next page 24 3. Framing adaptation in Cities Table 3.2 common acToRs involveD in aDaPTaTion (continued) Actor Roles Examples of Partnership in Cities United Nations Provide financing for specific investments and projects, during and The role of the World Bank Group in climate change adaptation is increasingly broad and deep. Adaptation is being mainstreamed and International after emergencies and on an ongoing basis. (See Chapter 7 for more into Bank operations, including financial decision making about grants and loans. It is also the subject of many Bank-produced events, Financial information on city-level adaptation financing opportunities.) trainings, and guidance materials. Institutions Offer strategic advice and technical assistance to cities on mitigation The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is helping mid-sized cities in Latin America and the Caribbean develop sustainability capacity and adaptation. and prepare for climate change through its Emerging Sustainable Cities Platform (see Chapter 4). More information is available at www. iadb.org/secci. The International Finance Corporation (IFC), a member of the World Bank Group, has developed a framework for assessing climate change risks to port operations as well as options for adapting to those risks (see Chapter 6 and Chapter 7). UN-HABITAT manages a Cities and Climate Change Initiative aimed specifically at building capacity among local partners to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Large-scale Potentially interested in how to make their operations resilient to In 2005, the Rabobank Foundation, a philanthropic arm of the Rabobank multinational corporation, launched a climate change risk Industry or climate change impacts. Business vulnerability assessments and reduction program in Jakarta focused on building the capacity of communities to cope with disaster risks and impacts. The Foundation Business adaptation strategies may provide useful supplements to city-focused partnered with the Indonesian Red Cross and counterparts from Germany and the Netherlands to design microcredit and microfinance assessments described in Chapter 4. products to help communities reduce their flooding risks, as well as deliver public education on risks and adaptation options. The program was designed to return 100 percent of Rabobank’s funding through the microfinance program, and by 2009 had reached approximately Key sources of employment, goods, and services for city population. By 121,000 people. generating economic activity, they contribute to financial capacity for a city’s government and population to adapt. In conjunction with nongovernmental organizations, such as Red Cross, CARE, and WorldVision, Proctor and Gamble has distributed safe drinking water packets to communities in South and Southeast Asia in response to a range of disasters involving contaminated water. Some businesses may be interested in adaptation investments as Proctor and Gamble has provided these packets at cost of production, without making a profit. corporate philanthropy (also see Chapter 7). See Box 7.6 on the partnership between Swiss Re and the World Bank on weather insurance in Malawi. Sources: World Bank 2010c; Hardoy and Pandiella 2009; McGranahan and others 2007; CARE 2011; Red Cross / Red Crescent 2011; Rockefeller Foundation 2009; Mercy Corps 2007; IDB 2011; IFC 2011; UN-HABITAT 2011; Chandra 2008, Children’s Safe Drinking Water 2008; WorldVision Singapore 2007; and USAID 2006, as cited in Sida 2009. 25 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities outside technical advisors. Cities can also influence box 3.5 communiTy engagemenT in aDaPTaTion the type of climate research that is conducted, so In 1986, the City of Rio de Janeiro’s Municipal Secretariat of Social Development created the Community that research products can serve as relevant and Reforestation Project. Also referred to as the Paid Self-Help Reforestation Project and the Mutirão Project, the useful decision support tools for cities. initiative aims to control erosion and reduce associated landslide and flood risks through the reforestation of erosion-prone areas of the city, particularly where favelas (informal settlements) are located. Furthermore, the Community-based organizations that work with the project aims to employ local residents and reintroduce native tree species, considered to be effective for erosion most vulnerable groups within the city (such as the control, to the hillsides. The individual reforestation projects are carried out on relatively small areas of land, elderly, children, low-income groups, and sick or dis- ranging from plots of one hectare to larger parcels of 18 to 30 hectares. In each area to be reforested, the project abled people) may be more trusted among close-knit is implemented over a three- to four-year period. social networks than some city governments. This Source: UNFCCC 2011. means that community organizations may be good partners for raising awareness about climate change risks, developing potential adaptation actions, and a wider array of actors. This also has the FURThER RESOURCES influencing behavior in support of adaptation actions. positive cobenefit of strengthening com- Climate Resilient Cities: A Primer on Reducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters (World They may also be able to increase the adaptive munications and relationships among critical Bank 2009) is a guide for local governments in the East Asia Region to understand capacities of their target groups through the imple- the concepts and consequences of climate change, how cities can be vulnerable players, in turn building social resilience to mentation of programs on health, hygiene, employ- to climate change, and early experiences and lessons of “early adapter� city cope with future risks. governments in East Asia and around the world. It was published jointly by the ment generation, and access to basic services. To World Bank, the Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR), and the United varying extents, many communities self-organize Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and is available many DiffeRenT acToRs have and undertake informal adaptive actions, such as online at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEAPREGTOPURBDEV/Resources/ Primer_e_book.pdf. imPoRTanT Roles as PaRTneRs in adding second floors to homes in areas regularly Natural Hazards, Unnatural Disasters (World Bank, 2010c) describes how deaths aDaPTaTion affected by flooding. Box 3.5 describes an example and damages from natural hazards are the unnatural disasters that often result A variety of actors have already begun to engage from Rio de Janeiro, where the city government has from human acts of omission and commission. Although every disaster is unique, in adaptation efforts (see Table 3.2). These part- each one exposes actions that would have resulted in fewer deaths and less dam- engaged with communities to increase resilience age, had these actions been different. This report shows how prevention is possible ners often add value to adaptation efforts in ways with multiple cobenefits. and examines how decision makers can manage disaster risks cost-effectively. The that cities alone cannot. document is available online at: http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/NHUD-home. International nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) Academic organizations, as described in Table 3.2, that support advocacy and dialogue about climate offer important technical support to cities. Chapter change adaptation have important roles in bringing 4 provides additional detail about engaging with global attention to the climate-related crises faced 26 3. Framing adaptation in Cities by underserved areas and may also offer strategic as- their own national governments in their pledges to MITIGATIOn AnD ADAPTATIOn ARE COMPlEMEnTARy AnD ESSEnTIAl sistance to cities on both mitigation and adaptation. reduce GHG emissions and direct implementation of climate plans (see Chapter 4). They have also Mitigation and adaptation are complementary and essential aspects of climate Governments of neighboring jurisdictions over a protection. Addressing mitigation and adaptation jointly can maximize the benefits banded together to show collective leadership. of actions taken and ensure that any action taken in pursuit of one goal does not wide metropolitan area can partner on shared Some have taken an active international network- undermine progress toward the other. On a global scale, successful early mitigation adaptation strategies. City governments within a ing role in recent years, advocating for better efforts may reduce future harms and related adaptation costs, but some climate country can also band together to create political change impacts are already unavoidable in some parts of the world and will require recognition and empowerment of cities and local adaptation (ICLEI 2010). momentum for national action. Cities around the governments in the future (see Table 3.3). world can share lessons learned and knowledge on adaptation. Table 3.3 global, naTional, anD Regional ciTy neTWoRks foR climaTe acTion The private sector and development agencies often City Network/Partnership Membership drive a large part of a city’s economic and land use decisions, and can, thus, promote the city’s resil- Global Networks ience by making investment decisions that take C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group 40 participating and 19 affiliate cities climate impacts into consideration (for example, ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability > 1,200 cities, towns, counties appropriate building designs in flood-prone zones, United Cities Local Governments (UCLG/Metropolis) > 1,000 cites and 112 local governments improved standards of waste and wastewater World Mayors Council on Climate Change (WMCCC) > 50 members treatment, and promotion of green building designs Cities Alliance 24 members—local authorities, governments, NGOs, and multilateral that can cool occupants naturally). organizations National and Regional Networks inTeRnaTional neTWoRks foR Climate Alliance (Europe) > 1,600 cities, municipalities and districts and > 50 associate members climaTe acTion aRe gRoWing RaPiDly Covenant of Mayors (European Commission) > 2,700 Mayors U.S. Conference of Mayors (USCM) 1,049 Mayors in 50 states have signed the USCM Climate Protection Independently, as well as in concert, cities and Agreement local governments have proactively implemented EUROCITIES Local governments of more than 140 large cities climate actions over the past decade, showing their Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN) 11 cities in Asia capacity to reduce GHG emissions while also pre- CITYNET > 70 cities in Asia-Pacific region (full members) paring for climate impacts. In some instances, cities Sources: C40 Cities 2011; ICLEI 2011a; UCLG 2011; WMCCC 2011; Cities Alliance 2011;Climate Alliance 2011; Covenant of Mayors have gone above and beyond the commitments of 2011; ICLEI 2011b; EuroCities 2011; Rockefeller Foundation 2011; CITYNET 2011. 27 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities Hansen, J. et al. 2005. “Earth’s Energy Imbalance: _____. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Glossary of the References Confirmation and Implications.� Science 308 Synthesis Report. Synthesis Report of the Fourth Ackerman, Frank and Stanton, Elizabeth A. 2008. (5727): 1431-1435. Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental The Cost of Climate Change What We’ll Pay if Panel on Climate Change. A.P.M. Baede, P. van Hardoy, Jorgelina, and Gustavo Pandiella. 2009. “Urban Global Warming Continues Unchecked. Global der Linden and A. Verbruggen, eds. Cambridge, Poverty and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Development and Environment Institute and United Kingdom and New York, NY: Cambridge Latin America.� Environment and Urbanization 21 Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center, Tufts University Press. Online at http://www.ipcc.ch/ (1): 203-224. University. Washington, DC: NRDC. pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_appendix. ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability. Benzie, M., Harvey, A. and Miller, K. 2010. Adaptation pdf. (Accessed June 28, 2011.) 2009. “Climate Resilient Communities in European Cities: Heading in the Right Direction? India National Disaster Response Plan. http://www. Program.� http://www.icleiusa.org/ 1st World Congress on Cities and Adaptation to whoindia.org/LinkFiles/National_Disaster_ programs/climate/Climate_Adaptation/ Climate Change, Bonn, May 28-30. Response_Plan_01_introduction.pdf climate-resilient-communities-program. CARE. 2011. http://www.careclimatechange.org/ McGranahan, Gordon, Deborah Balk, and Bridget _____. 2010. “The Mitigation-Adaptation Connection: City of London. 2011. http://legacy.london.gov.uk/ Milestones, Synergies and Contradictions.� ICLEI. Anderson. 2007. “The Rising Tide: Assessing the mayor/strategies/sds/docs/spg-east-lon-green- Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements http://itep68.itep.nau.edu/itep_downloads/ grid-08.pdf in Low Elevation Coastal Zones.� Environment and ClimateChg_Resources/Handouts/ Cronin SJ et al. 2004. “Participatory Methods of Urbanization 19 (1): 17-37. ICLEIMitigationAdaptationConnection.pdf Incorporating Scientific with Traditional Knowledge Mercy Corps, 2007. “How Mercy Corps is Addressing IDB. 2011. “Sustainable Energy and Climate Change for Volcanic Hazard Management on Ambae Island, Climate Change.� Website accessed June Initiative.� www.iadb.org/secci. Vanuatu.� Bulletin of Volcanology, 66: 652–668. 14, 2011. http://www.mercycorps.org/topics/ IFC. 2011. Climate Risk and Business: Ports. climatechange/10409. Dessler, Andrew E. and Parson, Edward A. ed. 2010. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://www.ifc.org/ The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change Red Cross / Red Crescent. 2011. http://www. ifcext/sustainability.nsf/Content/Publications_ - A Guide to the Debate. 2nd ed. Cambridge, UK: climatecentre.org/ Report_ClimateRiskandBusiness-Ports. Cambridge University Press. Rockefeller Foundation. 2009. Asian Cities IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation The Economist, March 24 – April 1, 2011, “The Climate Change Resilience Network and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Worth of Water.� http://www.economist.com/ (ACCCRN): Responding to the Urban Climate Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the node/18440717. Challenge. Boulder, CO: Institute for Social Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. and Environmental Transition (ISET). McCarthy, J.J., O. F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J. Dokken 2010. Natural Disasters, Unnatural Hazards—The and K.S. White, eds. Cambridge, United Kingdom and Sida. 2009. Making Climate Your Business. In coopera- Economics of Effective Prevention. Washington, New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, tion with WRI & CSR Asia. DC: World Bank. 28 3. Framing adaptation in Cities Simply Green, 2009. http://www.simplygreen.co.za/ UNISDR. 2003. “Climate and Disaster Risk Reduction.� _____. 2010b. The Economics of Adaptation to Climate local-stories/latest/the-cape-prepares-for-extreme- Prepared for the Inter Agency Task Force on Change. A Synthesis Report. Washington, DC: weather-and-flooding.html Disaster Reduction. 8th Meeting Geneva, World Bank. Snover, A.K. and others. 2007. Preparing for Climate November. _____. 2010c. Natural Hazards, Unnatural Disasters: Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional and United Nations International Strategy for Disaster the Economics of Effective Prevention. Washington, State Governments. Oakland, CA: ICLEI – Local Reduction (UNISDR). 2008. “Climate Change and DC: World Bank. Governments for Sustainability. Disaster Risk Reduction.� Briefing Note 1. Geneva, World Bank and others. 2010d. “Regional Study Stern, Nicholas. 2006. Stern Review on the Economics Switzerland: UNISDR. on Adaptation to Climate Change and Natural of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge _____. 2010. “My City is Getting Ready!� campaign Disasters in the Coastal Cities of North Africa.� University Press. website. http://www.unisdr.org/campaign http://www.egis-bceominternational.com/pbm/ UNFCCC. Accessed May 28, 2011. “Local Coping Venton, Paul and La Trobe, Sarah. 2008. Linking Climate Project_outputs_Ang.html. Strategies Database – Community Reforestation Change Adaptation and Disaster. Teddington, UK: in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.� http://maindb.unfccc. Tearfund. int/public/adaptation/adaptation_casestudy. World Bank. 2007. “Strengthening World pl?id_project=139. Bank Group Engagement on Governance UN-HABITAT. 2010. Local Leadership for Climate and Anticorruption.� http://sitere- Action. Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Human sources.worldbank.org/EXTGOVANTICORR/ Settlements Programme. http://unfccc.int/ Resources/3035863-1281627136986/ files/adaptation/nairobi_workprogramme/ GACStrategyPaper.pdf partners_and_action_pledges/application/pdf/ _____. 2009a. Climate Resilient Cities: A Primer on un-habitat_furtherinfo3_060511.pdf. Reducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters. Washington, UN-HABITAT. 2011. “Cities and Climate Change DC: World Bank. www.worldbank.org/eap/ Initiative.� Website accessed on June 14, climatecities. 2011: http://www.unhabitat.org/categories. _____. 2010a. World Development Report 2010. asp?catid=550. Washington, DC: World Bank. 29 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities 4. Developing a Roadmap for Adaptation This chapter provides guidance on how a city can develop a specific roadmap for adaptation: „„ Improving understanding of city-specific climate change impacts, with an introduc- tion to different types of climate change assessments „„ Developing city adaptation plans, policies, and actions „„ Moving from planning to action by setting performance indicators and evaluating and prioritizing potential adaptation actions in cities This chapter offers an overview of the types of resources that are available for these purposes. It does not provide the technical information that a city would need to complete these assessments or specify a particular planning approach that a city should take. 30 photo: John Isaac / The World Bank 4. Developing a RoaDmap foR aDaptation demographic groups. In this context, an assess- „„ Moderate to high level of one or more Understanding Specific ment is a process that brings the best-available natural hazards Climate Change Impacts science and other information to bear on decision „„ Medium or high observed vulnerability in in Cities making. (See Chapter 3 and the glossary for defini- tions of vulnerability, risk, and adaptive capacity.) past disasters „„ Moderate to high sectoral vulnerability to A first step in adapting to climate change is to understand how climate factors are likely to climate change scoPing an assessmenT exeRcise change in a specific geographic area, how people „„ Poor or nonexistent urban development plan and city operations are likely to be affected by Assessment tools that a city can use to develop an or growth plan these changes, and how impacts may vary across understanding of climate change impacts range „„ Poor compliance with urban development sectors. Below are some basic risk management on a spectrum from quick and informal to inten- sive and highly rigorous, with the associated plan or growth plan questions that a city official may use to frame this work (World Bank 2011, adapted from Kaplan; costs and other resource requirements varying „„ Poor quality of building stock World Bank 2009): accordingly. Each city will need to determine the degree of detail or analytical precision desired to „„ How likely is the occurrence of a hazard use the resulting information in planning, policy, FURThER RESOURCES event or incremental change? or investment decisions. Participatory scenario development (PSD) is a process involving the participation of „„ Which people and what assets are at risk of stakeholders to discuss and address future scenarios in a creative and actionable harm, and in what ways? A rough scoping of expected impacts and related way. The World Bank and the International Institute for Sustainable Development risks can help city decision makers to decide on (IISD) jointly published a capacity development manual in December 2010 for „„ What is the range of possible economic localities to conduct PSD approaches to climate change adaptation that involve the extent and detail of further assessment and consider the poor. This emerging tool was also applied in the World Bank’s losses resulting from climate change impacts? efforts. Along these lines, the Climate Resilient Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change analysis (World Bank 2010). The manual Cities Primer provides a valuable initial assess- can be found online at: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/ „„ What background conditions or issues documents/ESSA-IISD_CapacityDevManual-EACC-Social.pdf. (including social, economic, and physical) ment exercise for cities to understand their The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) offers a range of tools and resources, minimize or exacerbate the impacts? climate and disaster “hot spots�—at-risk areas including a database of case studies, on adaptation to climate change. In particular, that merit further attention and response (World LCLIP (Local Climate Impacts Profile) is a resource that local authorities can employ A city can answer these questions by conduct- Bank 2009). Characteristics of a hot spot include a to understand their exposure to weather and climate in more detail. Another UKCIP ing an assessment of vulnerability, risk, tool is the Adaptation Wizard, which takes users (not specifically cities) through a combination of natural, physical, and institutional process to determine vulnerability to climate change, identify key climate risks, and and adaptive capacity in city operations, factors, as listed in the primer: develop a climate change adaptation strategy. Further information is available at specific sectors, and different communities and http://www.ukcip.org.uk. 31 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities „„ High population density gather information in the following categories, as „„ Natural hazards (for example, exposure to follows: nonclimate hazard events, such as earth- „„ Medium to large population or high decadal quakes and tsunamis) and climate change growth rate or high population density in „„ City description, including geographic impacts, if known, including those occurring case of low population location and demographic profile outside of cities with effects on cities „„ Medium or high slum density or large „„ City governance, management structure, and proportion of informal population financial resources Although this initial scoping exercise does not take the place of a full vulnerability or adaptive capac- „„ No comprehensive disaster response system „„ Built environment (for example, existence ity assessment, it can help inform city decisions of urban growth master plans, informal „„ Economic and/or political significance in on how in-depth a subsequent analysis should settlements, and historical buildings) regional or national context be. Moreover, it can provide a cost-effective ap- „„ Political and economic impacts (for example, proach for those cities without funds to pursue the To support a hot spot analysis, the primer whether the city is a center for political more in-depth analysis immediately. To achieve provides worksheets that require a city to activity and economic value) maximum benefit from a hot spot assessment, a box 4.1 examPles of WoRlD bank analysis on climaTe change imPacTs in sPecific ciTies Culminating in a 2010 synthesis report, Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian In June 2011, the World Bank released a summary of findings from a regional study Coastal Megacities, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the Japan on climate change adaptation and natural disaster preparedness in the North African International Cooperation Agency jointly conducted in-depth analyses of climate coastal cities of Alexandria, Casablanca and Tunis, and Bouregreg Valley. The analysis change impacts in Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok, and Metro Manila. The analyses in was carried out in conjunction with a consortium of French consulting firms, national these cities involved (i) estimation of climate related risks through downscaling tech- meteorological agencies, and local university partners (see Box 3.2). The approach niques, (ii) hydrological modeling to estimate city level impacts and representation consisted of (i) examination of existing patterns of urban growth, (ii) evaluation of ur- through GIS maps, (iii) damage cost assessment, and (iv) prioritization of adaptation ban exposure to risks through downscaled satellite imagery and meteorological data, options through cost-benefit analysis. One of the city studies also included a fifth step (iii) an integrated urban risk assessment of climate and nonclimate related hazards of institutional analysis. Notably, this work considered indirect impacts, including the (for example, flooding, earthquake, tsunami and marine submersions, coastal erosion, following: estimated costs associated with building damage; business, industrial, and and water resources scarcity), and (iv) suggestions for adaptation responses in the daily wage income loss; and hospitalization because of disease outbreaks (World areas of urban planning, institutional preparedness and infrastructure investments. Bank 2010a). The report is available online at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ The study is notable for its integrated view of disaster risk reduction and climate EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/Resources/226300-1287600424406/coastal_megacities_full- change adaptation (World Bank, 2010b). The report is available online at http:// report.pdf. arabworld.worldbank.org and www.cmimarseille.org. 32 4. Developing a RoaDmap foR aDaptation city official can also convene a range of internal time scales (for example, looking forward to „„ Has the research undergone peer review? and external stakeholders to pursue this exercise the year 2030 or 2050) Have other peer-reviewed studies reached jointly (see also Chapter 3). similar conclusions? (Not all scientists may „„ Using more than one tool at the same time, agree on research findings, but successful peer depending on available resources and the review of a study indicates that other experts oPTions foR unDeRTaking amount of information desired in the field find the work to be credible.) assessmenTs „„ Working with local partners to develop custom- „„ Does the study reflect an assessment of Multiple institutions work with cities to assess ized versions of specific tools, incorporating features of some of the tools described here uncertainty? (Even the most elaborate climate change impacts, employing a range of ap- analysis is likely to contain uncertainties, proaches. Although past vulnerability assessments Although the table is not an exhaustive listing, which should be acknowledged and reflected have tended to focus on the physical dimensions it does illustrate the range of options that are in a transparent manner. Scientific reports of vulnerability to risks and climate hazards, more available to a city. Moreover, these tools are not should include a description of uncertainty, recent assessments have incorporated the social mutually exclusive; a city and its partners can confidence levels, and/or probability of and economic dimensions related to the sensitivity decide to use different elements of these tools in a particular conditions occurring in the future.) and adaptive capacity of the potentially affected combined approach that suits local circumstances. „„ How long ago was the study conducted? Do regions and their populations (ICLEI 2011a). Box 4.1 describes examples of recent analytical work that the conclusions still hold true? For any given source of information, due regard the World Bank has conducted with local partners should be given to the credibility of the source in Whatever tool is used, a city should emerge from on climate change impacts in specific cities. question. When evaluating sources of technical the assessment process with a clearer picture of information about climate change impacts, city anticipated climate change impacts. However, in A city that is ready to undertake a more detailed decision makers can find it beneficial to consider the many cases an assessment exercise will generate evaluation of climate change impacts has a num- following (list adapted from Snover and others 2007): a list of issues that is longer than is feasible for a ber of options. Table 4.1 profiles the key features and examples of a variety of tools and approaches „„Are the authors widely considered to be city to tackle at once. In order to prioritize atten- that cities can use in assessing climate change experts? In what discipline? tion on specific vulnerabilities, a city may want to vulnerability, risk, and adaptive capacity. Many of consider the decision criteria recommended by the „„Are the authors’ conclusions based on these tools can be tailored to local circumstances: IPCC to identify key vulnerabilities (see Box 4.2). reasonable assumptions? Further insights on how to generate and prioritize „„ Focusing on government operations, a „„ Do the authors have any potential political or adaptation responses are provided later in this geographic area, specific sectors, or different financial biases? chapter. 33 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities Table 4.1 assessmenT Tools available To ciTies Name of Tool (Primary Source/Creator) Description Benefits of Using the Tool Constraints to Using the Tool Examples ADAPT (ICLEI) Five-step climate change Useful across many sectors. Not available to all cities—only to Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. http://www.icleiusa.org/programs/climate/Climate_Adaptation/adaptation- adaptation planning process and ICLEI members. Intended to generate analysis that Flagstaff, Arizona, USA database-and-planning-tool-adapt guide. will guide future action. Used to conduct participatory vulnerability assessment. Includes exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Participatory Climate Change Adaptation Appraisal (PCCAA) / Rapid Risk and These tools: Involves communities, local Requires high level of collaboration. PCCAA/RRIA examples include Institutional Appraisal (RRIA) (University of Manchester in collaboration with ƒ„Use interviews and other authorities and humanitarian, and Esteli, Nicaragua and Mombasa, Can be time-consuming and staff- World Bank) participatory tools to collect development organizations in the Kenya intensive. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTSOCIALDEVELOPMENT/ knowledge about: assessment from the outset. IFRC assessment examples include Resources/ 244362-1232059926563/ 5747581 - 1239131985528/ESW_ ƒ„ experiences that poor The For IFRC tool, country must be an Complements national and sub- communities in Nepal, the Solomon propoorurbanadaptationReport4947 GLBweb2. pdf households, small businesses, IFRC National Society member. national risk, hazard, vulnerability, Islands, the Cayman Islands, Participatory scenario development, as applied in the Economics of Adaptation and local practitioners (for and capacity mapping exercises. Rwanda, and Yemen to Climate Change study (World Bank and International Institute for Sustainable example, doctors or farmers) have had with climate “Quickly and cost-effectively Development) (see Further Resources below) change; introduc[es] into adaptation Examples of similar approaches include: planning processes an appreciation Possible future vulnerability ƒ„ ƒ„Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (International Federation of Red Cross of the significance of climate to and risk of climate change and Red Crescent Societies) change impacts for poor people impacts; and http:// www.ifrc.org/en/what-we-do/ disaster-management/preparing-for- in informal urban settlements… Community and local ƒ„ and [identifies] how policy and disaster/ disaster-preparedness-tools/ disaster-preparedness-tools/ institutional capacity to adapt institutional systems can best ƒ„Participatory Vulnerability Analysis (Action Aid) to natural hazards. build on local realities to develop ƒ„Participatory Capacities and Vulnerabilities Assessment (Oxfam) ƒ„Identify activities to prevent or pro-poor urban climate change ƒ„Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis (CARE) lessen the effects of expected adaptation actions, particularly vulnerabilities and risks. relating to resilience.� (Moser and ƒ„Shared learning dialogues (Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network, others 2010) supported by Rockefeller Foundation in conjunction with the Institute for ƒ„Identify new ways to build Social and Environmental Transition and Arup) adaptive capacity. http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/what-we-do/ current-work/developing- climate-change-resilience/asian-cities-climate-change-resilience/ ƒ„ProVention Consortium website profiles a number of participatory assessment methodologies http://www.proventionconsortium.org/?pageid=43 continued on next page 34 4. Developing a RoaDmap foR aDaptation Table 4.1 assessmenT Tools available To ciTies (continued ) Name of Tool (Primary Source/Creator) Description Benefits of Using the Tool Constraints to Using the Tool Examples Roadmap for Adapting to Coastal Risk (NOAA)* “Participatory process for assessing Provides useful information for Does not include adaptive capacity Miami Dade County, Florida, USA http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/training/roadmap/index.html a community’s vulnerability to many cities: workshop agendas, in assessing vulnerability. hazards and for incorporating data sources and checklists. Examples exclusively from USA. relevant data and information about Offers some information specific to hazards and climate into ongoing coastal cities. local planning and decision- making.� (NOAA 2011) Urban Risk Assessment (World Bank) Three principal pillars: institutional Aims to strengthen coherence and Requires high level of collaboration. Forthcoming assessment, hazards assessment, consensus, minimize duplicative Not a detailed toolkit or manual. and socioeconomic assessment. efforts, and bring convergence to related work undertaken across A flexible framework with three relevant organizations. levels of complexity, depending on needs of city. Spatial assessment and geographic information systems (GIS)-based analysis of Cities, local governments, Projections can be tailored to Requires training, which can be King County “Vulnerability of numerous sources of data (LIDAR, satellite) and universities can employ specific geographical areas. expensive. Major Wastewater Facilities to GIS technology to develop a Flooding from Sea Level Rise� 2008 Produces data as well as high May require support from a local visual image (often a map) of memorandum quality visuals. university. vulnerabilities and risks. http://your.kingcounty.gov/dnrp/ Can leverage free / publicly library/archive-documents/wtd/csi/ available databases. csi-docs/0807_SLR_VF_TM.pdf Can be combined with other Spatial Planning and Climate geospatial data (for example: Change Adaptation in Coastal historical climate variability Regions: The Case of Vietnam and future climate projections; http://www.fig.net/pub/vietnam/ insurance claim information to papers/ts04d/ts04d_boateng_3574. estimate potential costs relating pdf to projected building damages; demographic data to reflect social vulnerability to heat waves). * “Roadmap for Adapting to Coastal Risk� is a combination of NOAA tools formerly called community vulnerability assessment tool (CVAT) and risk and vulnerability assessment tool (RVAT). Sources: ICLEI 2011; Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre 2011; Moser 2010; NOAA 2011; WRI 2011; King County 2008; Boateng 2009; ICLEI 2011. 35 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities Table 4.2 TyPes anD examPles of ciTy climaTe Plans box 4.2 Decision cRiTeRia foR iDenTifying key Type of Plan Example vulneRabiliTies Climate change mitigation Bangkok Action Plan on Global Warming Mitigation 2007-2012 A series of decision criteria have been identified by plan http://www.baq2008.org/climate-change the IPCC to identify “key� vulnerabilities: Mexico City target reduction of greenhouse gas emissions 12% by 2012 „„ Magnitude, the scale (for example, the geo- http://www.sma.df.gob.mx/sma/index.php?opcion=26&id=531 graphic area or number of people affected) and Climate action plan— Quito Climate Change Strategy intensity (for example, the degree of damage focused on both mitigation http://resilient-cities.iclei.org/fileadmin/sites/resilient-cities/files/docs/G2-Bonn2010- caused) of an impact and adaptation Zambrano-Barragan.pdf „„Timing, the expected date range (for example, Cape Town Energy and Climate Change Strategy and Cape Town Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change decade, year, or season) and rate at which the http://www.capetown.gov.za/en/EnvironmentalResourceManagement/projects/ impact is likely to take place climatechange/Pages/default.aspx „„ Persistence and Reversibility of Impact, Sao Paolo Municipal Act on Climate Change whether the impact is expected to continue http://www.c40cities.org/docs/ccap-sao-paulo.pdf over a long period of time, and whether it can Chicago Climate Action Plan http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/ be reversed „„ likelihood of Impact Occurring, the prob- Resilience or risk Surat, India (also see Gorakphur and Indore resilience strategies, supported by ACCCRN) management plan http://www.suratclimatechange.org/page/19/surat-city-resilience-strategy-%E2%80%93- ability of an outcome having occurred or oc- draft-document.html curring in the future, and Confidence of Impact Semarang, Indonesia, including land use planning, microfinance, coastal erosion, and disaster Occurring, or the assessment that any statement early warning systems, as profiled in UN-HABITAT’s Planning for Climate Change guide (UN- about an outcome will prove correct HABITAT, forthcoming). „„ Potential for Adaptation, the assessment Esmereldas, Ecuador that activities can be undertaken to lessen the http://www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/6007_9628_Esmeraldas%20flyer%20oct09.pdf projected harm Climate change main- The London Plan streamed into long-term http://www.london.gov.uk/thelondonplan/climate/ „„ Distribution, the spread of climate change master plan PlaNYC impacts across regions, demographic categories http://www.nyc.gov/html/planyc2030/html/home/home.shtml (for example, income, gender, or age) and sectors Sectoral plans (for Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Framework (Highways Agency-UK Department for example, transportation or Transport) „„ Importance of the Vulnerable System, the http://www.highways.gov.uk/aboutus/documents/CCAF-Strategy_and_Vol_1-Rev_B_Nov.pdf water) that reflect climate priority that a community places on an asset or change adaptation system Sources: Bangkok Metropolitan Administration 2007; C40 Cities 2011a; Zambrano-Barragán 2010; City of Cape Town 2011; C40 Adapted from IPCC 2007. Cities 2011b; City of Chicago 2011; City of Surat 2011; UN-HABITAT forthcoming; UN-HABITAT, 2011; City of London,2011a; City of New York 2011; UK Department for Transport 2009. 36 4. Developing a RoaDmap foR aDaptation for land use, transportation, and other sectors) „„ In terms of long-term investments, cities Developing Adaptation to reflect any significant changes in landscape can decide to invest in infrastructure to Plans, Policies, and (for example, sea level, coastal zones, or build resilience to climate change, such as a Actions floodplains) and natural resources (for example, water supply), as well as related levee, sea wall, or improved road network in a highly populated floodplain. These actions Cities can apply the knowledge gained from climate risks. Other related actions might are sometimes more challenging to imple- assessments described in the prior section at include development of new strategies, high- ment than planning efforts, because they multiple levels. level political initiatives, policy formulation, often require substantial financial resources. and new institutional structures. In many instances, climate change adapta- „„At the strategy and planning level, activities tion alone will not be a sufficient rationale can include revising master plans (for example, to justify an investment in a given location. However, when coupled with cobenefits and Table 4.3 TyPes anD examPles of climaTe-smaRT Policies other considerations—such as sustainable Type of Policy Example transportation, livelihood enhancement, or Legislative requirements Basque Country requirement that public managers incorporate environmental and climate even tourism promotion—these investments that every policy or considerations into their planning across all sectors. in resilience can be made more financially investment must have a http://www.theclimategroup.org/our-news/news/2011/5/30/Basque-Country-approves- climate lens pioneering-climate-change-bill/ and politically feasible. King County, Washington (state, USA) Executive Orders and a King County Council Motion „„At the operational level, climate change requiring agency officials to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for climate change across sectors of land use, transportation, environmental management, and energy. King County considerations can be integrated into leadership encouraged officials to apply a climate change lens to government operations and policies, by “asking the climate question� of how climate change would affect their activities. day-to-day municipal operations and http://your.kingcounty.gov/exec/news/2007/pdf/ClimatePlan.pdf service delivery. These actions can include Amendments to sectoral In Fiji, to prevent damage from storm surges and sea level rise: responses to extreme weather events, such policies and regulations, ƒ„Resorts are now built at least 2.6 m above mean sea level and 30 m off the high tide mark as closing certain roads and rerouting traffic, such as building codes, to The ƒ„ building code prescribes that structures need to withstand wind speeds of 60 km per reflect climate change risks hour or adaptations to incremental change, such as painting bus roofs white to reflect heat Zoning and development Climate change assessment in Durban, South Africa, is reflected in the city’s five-year Integrated during periods of more extreme summer changes to reflect increased Development Plan, and is also leading to a remapping of the city’s Open Space System Plan vulnerability of specific in order to protect the area’s biodiversity resources from the impacts of climate change, with temperatures (Horton 2009). implications for conservation areas and improved management of urban areas. http://eau. locations and/or resources sagepub.com/content/20/2/521.full.pdf+html Sources: The Climate Group 2011; King County 2007; UNWTO and UNEP 2008; Roberts 2008. 37 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities box 4.3 engaging ResiDenTs anD communiTy gRouPs in aDaPTaTion box 4.4 naTional goveRnmenTs Recognizing The Role of ciTies in A number of communication products and platforms can be used to engage residents aDaPTaTion and community groups in the development of adaptation strategies, if they have not A small, but growing, number of national governments around the world already been engaged in the assessment process. Objectives can include: (i) building have adopted or considered adopting legislation that specifically addresses awareness among residents regarding climate impacts that their city faces; (ii) inform- the role of cities in climate change adaptation (ICLEI 2011b). These efforts ing residents about adaptation plans, policies, and actions that the city proposes to include the following: undertake in order to meet these threats and ensure their well-being; (iii) inviting the „„The Philippines’ Climate Change Act (2009) and Disaster Risk involvement of citizens in the decision-making process by soliciting their ideas and Management Act (2008) inputs; and (iv) suggesting how actions taken by individuals and groups can contribute „„The State of Chiapas, Mexico’s Law on Adapting to and Mitigating toward the city’s resilience. Climate Change (2010) In addition to the participatory assessments described in Chapter 4, some of the ap- „„ South Africa’s Green Paper on National Climate Change Response proaches that can be used to engage residents in adaptation include the following: (2011), which has involved the South African Local Government „„ Communication products, such as pamphlets, that identify the climate vulnerabili- Association (SALGA) ties of the city and proposed adaptation activities and actions, as well as indicate „„The Republic of Korea’s National Climate Change Adaptation Master where citizens can find more information and how they can get involved. Maps of Plan through the Framework Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth (LCGG) vulnerability can be visually effective in communicating the local areas most likely (August 2010), through which local governments are developing their to be affected by climate change. own five-year adaptation plans based on the national plan (http://kaccc. „„ Public consultations in which adaptation plans are discussed, with reference to kei.re.kr/eng) corresponding climate change impacts. „„The Norwegian Climate Adaptation Programme “Cities of the Future� „„ Community meetings, potentially facilitated by NGOs, in different and diverse project collaboration (May 2007) between the national government and parts of a city. the country’s 13 largest cities and how they can get involved. Maps of vulnerability can be visually effective in communicating the local areas „„ Using local media, social networks, and popular gathering places to spread climate most likely to be affected by climate change. change awareness and reach large audiences. Source: Based on direct experience of ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability. Source: Based on direct experience of ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability. 38 4. Developing a RoaDmap foR aDaptation Incorporating or “mainstreaming� climate change information and adaptation goals into existing Moving from Planning FURThER RESOURCE plans and activities can be a low-cost, or even to Action Planning for Climate Change: A Strategic, Values-based Approach for Urban Planners (UN-HABITAT forthcoming) provides planners with practical tools for no-cost, step for cities to take, allowing cities to addressing climate change in different urban planning processes, with the flexibility Sound implementation of climate change adapta- address climate impacts systematically without to be used as both a general resource and a step-by-step guide. These steps tion plans also involves setting performance include preparing a monitoring and evaluation framework, determining monitoring losing sight of existing city issues or placing ad- indicators and evaluating and prioritizing proposed and evaluation partners and responsibilities, establishing a documentation and ditional pressures on scarce resources. reporting protocol, and evaluating results from a monitoring program. actions. In 2007, the Clean Air Partnership of Toronto released a summary of lessons learned from adaptation planning in six “early adapter� urban regions: London, New York, smaRT climaTe Planning anD Policies Boston, Halifax, Vancouver, and King County. The report is available online at: http:// DeveloPing PeRfoRmance adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/pdf/171e_e.pdf (City of Toronto 2007). Different types of plans and policies will suit dif- inDicaToRs foR climaTe change PAKLIM, an Indonesian-German program, is offering an integrated climate action ferent cities, depending on expected local climate risks and unique political, resource, and capacity aDaPTaTion planning framework for Indonesian cities, intended to build the internal capacity of city officials to incorporate climate change into the design and implementation of constraints. Some cities may start by developing Measurement, reporting, and verification are im- their day-to-day business (ICLEI 2011c). a stand-alone climate action plan, while others portant steps in evaluating the efficiency and ef- The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) helps Latin American and Caribbean may choose to mainstream climate change in- fectiveness of a climate change adaptation effort. governments prepare for climate change impacts through its Emerging Sustainable Demonstrating that an adaptation action or suite Cities Platform, which supports mid-sized cities in the region to develop sustain- formation into existing plans and policies. Tables ability action plans with a focus on environmental and fiscal sustainability, climate 4.2 and 4.3 illustrate several types of planning of actions has minimized vulnerability, reduced change, and urban development (ICLEI 2011d). More information is available online and policy approaches that a city may choose to risk, and increased adaptive capacity helps to at: www.iadb.org/en/topics/cities/emerging-sustainable-cities-platform.2862.html. pursue. The C40 cities provide many examples of inform future decisions and satisfy taxpayers and In mid-2010, the Basque Government, the city council of Vitoria-Gasteiz, and the external funders. Yet, a fundamental challenge Unit of Environment of TECNALIA Research and Innovation launched a collaboration large city plans, available online at: http://www. to support climate change adaptation planning efforts in the city. One of the proj- c40cities.org/ccap/. Box 4.3 outlines ways that a that some cities face is an information deficit: ect’s primary objectives is to raise awareness among Basque municipalities about city can engage the public and community groups a lack of data for establishing baselines and for the importance of incorporating adaptation into their sustainable development and monitoring programmatic investments, activities, climate change policies, with the city serving as a role model (ICLEI 2011e). during the planning stage of adaptation. Box 4.4 describes the handful of national governments and outcomes. Cities may also lack access to The Asian Cities Adapt partnership is working with eight cities in the Philippines and India to conduct local vulnerability assessments and subsequently develop that are explicitly recognizing the role of cities in external sources of data on population growth, concrete adaptation strategies. ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability national adaptation legislation. energy consumption, water supply, and other will coordinate the project, in conjunction with the Potsdam Institute for Climate important issues. Impact Research, the Indian Institute of Technology – Delhi, and the University of the Philippines. More information is available online at http://asian-cities-adapt. iclei-europe.org/. Sources: GCIF 2011; Siemens 2011; World Bank forthcoming; UNISDR 2008; ICLEI 2011. 39 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities The good news is that cities do not need to create that they already collect or informal knowledge FURThER RESOURCES entirely new performance indicators for climate from government program managers and com- ICLEI-Canada’s Changing Climate, Changing Communities—Municipal Climate change adaptation. Most city officials have at munity stakeholders. The most practical measures Adaptation Guide and Workbook provides guidance on how to establish indicators and baseline data for an assessment of city-level adaptive capacity (ICLEI 2011f). least a rough sense of the extent of existing are likely to be reflective of existing community The guide and workbook are available online at http://www.iclei.org. problems in their jurisdictions, whether from data priorities, for which a city may already have data or to which political attention is already paid. Cities can also think creatively about how existing Table 4.4 suggesTeD ResouRces foR climaTe data resources, however limited, can be used to change aDaPTaTion PeRfoRmance measuRes aT box 4.5 lonDon’s gReen infRasTRucTuRe as a no-RegReTs aDaPTaTion sTRaTegy measure progress on adaptation. The ciTy level Resource Description In London, the “Green Grid� initiative aims to reduce All of this information can be used to support the risk and sensitivity of people, property, and the development of proxy indicators of climate Global City Economic prosperity and innovation. Indicators Facility http://www.cityindicators.org/ nature to the urban heat island effect and surface change adaptation as well as estimates of water flooding, through a robust green infrastruc- Asian Green City Environmental performance of 22 major vulnerability, risk, and adaptive capacity. Often, Index cities in Asia. ture network (see glossary for definition of green http://www.siemens.com/press/pool/ infrastructure). Part of the program will be delivered these indicators are already considered as part de/events/2011/corporate/2011-02- through grant funding or sponsorship to catalyze of a vulnerability assessment. Examples of proxy asia/asian-gci-report-e.pdf business and public engagement; much will involve indicators include the following: Multi-Hazard City Urban risk the individual London Boroughs as the primary deliv- Risk Index „„ Percent of land area, or rough amount of land ery agents. Over the longer term, the program seeks Local indicators Based on 43 local context-specific to demonstrate that an urban greening program area, known to have informal settlements of progress on indicators, supported by online implementation monitoring tools. should be integral to urban regeneration because of with inferior infrastructure of the Hyogo the economic benefits of green infrastructure, mea- Framework for „„ Number of residents living in a floodplain or sured by increased productivity and sustained private Action in a low-elevation coastal zone sector investment. The program has numerous Climate Disaster In 2009, the Climate Disaster Resilience Index Resilience Initiative used the CDRI ancillary benefits (“win-win opportunities�) including „„ Number of homes without air conditioning (CDRI) to measure the resilience of 15 cities carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, air or natural cooling in a city expected to across Asia to climate change and quality improvement, and increase in the desirability disaster risks. experience more days of extreme high http://www.preventionweb.net/file of communities. For more information about green temperatures s/16576_16576metromanilacityprof infrastructure, see Land Use section of Chapter 6. ile1.pdf „„ Presence of a cohesive social network in Source: Benzie and others 2010; City of London 2011b. Sources: GCIF 2011; Siemens 2011; World Bank forthcoming; an informal settlement, including strong UNISDR 2008; ICLEI 2011. communications channels in times of crisis 40 4. Developing a RoaDmap foR aDaptation Table 4.4 contains a sample of additional re- benefits of green infrastructure (Center for may be absorbed in development plans. On sources for city performance indicators. Clean Air Policy 2011), an example of which the other hand, if a city is considering buyout is described in Box 4.5. of residential properties explicitly because of a projected increase in frequency and severity evaluaTing PRoPoseD aDaPTaTions „„The incremental cost of adaptation can be of coastal flooding, the additional cost may be A city can compare proposed actions based on considered in the context of—or in addition considered independently. projected costs and benefits, and evaluate how to—already planned development costs. For well every action builds long-term resilience as example, if a city is already exploring whether „„ Cities must also take caution to avoid measured by specified performance indicators. to invest in infrastructure or service to an maladaptation—“any changes in natural Several important dimensions of this evaluation informal settlement, the cost of adaptation or human systems that inadvertently increase process are outlined here. City officials are frequently required to evaluate box 4.6 RobusT Decision making potential courses of action based on incomplete The Robust Decision Making (RDM) framework developed by the RAND Corporation is unique in three respects. information about the range of future costs and benefits. Uncertainty about the scope and specif- First, uncertainty is tackled through multiple views of the future. Although RDM does not rule out the use of some ics of climate change impacts simply adds another probabilistic information, it does not accept the representation of a deeply uncertain future through the use of a single joint probability distribution. Furthermore, a cobenefit of considering multiple views of the future is that it helps to build layer of complexity to that decision-making pro- consensus and to avoid underestimating uncertainty. cess. However, experience from early adapters has yielded several insights in this area. Second, alternative policies are ranked according to a robustness (rather than an optimality) criterion. Optimal solu- tions are optimal with respect to the predicted future, and might behave poorly otherwise. The robustness criterion „„ Cities can seek to maximize benefits in areas aims to select solutions that are good (but not necessarily optimal) whatever the future. Furthermore, a robust beyond climate change adaptation, such as strategy explicitly incorporates a time dimension; in other words, it is designed to evolve over time in response to greenhouse gas emissions reductions, public the availability of new information. health, and economic development. Actions Third, RDM uses a vulnerability-and-response-option analysis framework to characterize uncertainty and to help identify that generate net social and/or economic and evaluate robust strategies. This is in sharp contrast with the traditional predict-then-act analysis. Hence, RDM starts benefits independent of climate change with a candidate decision and then identifies the future conditions under which that decision is vulnerable. Then, RDM adaptation may be considered no-regrets identifies a process to reduce those vulnerabilities, thus highlighting the trade-offs involved. With this latter information, actions, yielding greater political and decision makers are in a better position to choose their preferred strategy. financial support. For example, recent Source: Lempert 2011. analysis has demonstrated the multiple 41 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities vulnerability to climatic stimuli, or an the assessments described previously in this actions with near-term priorities. Adaptation adaptation that does not succeed in reducing chapter. Cities can also begin to consider how may be easier to address in this way, rather vulnerability but increases it instead� (IPCC adaptation investments can improve their eco- than in relation to less certain and longer 2001). This might include an adaptation action nomic performance and attractiveness to outside time-scale projections. However, it remains that is reactive to past disasters, but not investors, by increasing the reliability of their important to maintain a forward-looking proactive to include all possible outcomes of infrastructure (ICLEI 2011g). orientation, whenever possible. projected changes. Additional factors to consider when prioritizing Evaluating the robustness of a proposed adaptation adaptation investments include the following: References would include exploring the full range of possible „„ Community priorities. The factors Bangkok Metropolitan Administration. 2007. http:// impacts, and the costs and benefits in different guiding prioritization are highly specific to a www.baq2008.org/climate-change. scenarios. Box 4.6 describes the example of an ap- given city—whether financial, technical (for Benzie, M., Harvey, A., and Miller, K. 2010. “Adaptation proach being pioneered by the RAND Corporation example, magnitude or probability of impact in European Cities: Heading in the Right Direction?� to help decision makers identify the most effective occurring) or driven by political will and 1st World Congress on Cities and Adaptation to courses of action under varying conditions. Climate Change, Bonn, May 28-30. popular sentiment (for example, importance of the vulnerable system or risk tolerance). Boateng, Isaac. 2009. “Spatial planning and Climate PRioRiTizing PRoPoseD aDaPTaTions Political leaders and constituents may have Change adaptation in Coastal Regions: The Case different views on what constitutes the most of Vietnam.� 7th FIG Regional Conference. Hanoi, In light of scarce financial resources, cities need urgent actions to take. For this reason—in Vietnam, October 19-22. http://www.fig.net/pub/ to prioritize adaptation actions in the context of conjunction with the assessment approaches vietnam/papers/ts04d/ts04d_boateng_3574.pdf. other pressing concerns. Cities can take the famil- outlined previously—cities may find it all Brugmann, Jeb. 2011. “Financing the Resilient City.� iar approach of cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness the more beneficial to pursue a participatory White Paper. Washington, DC: ICLEI: . analysis, which can be used in conjunction with process of prioritization that integrates both C40 Cities. 2011a. “Sao Paolo Municipal Act on top-down and bottom-up, community-based Climate Change.� http://www.c40cities.org/docs/ perspectives. ccap-sao-paulo.pdf FURThER RESOURCES _____. 2011b. http://www.c40cities.org/. Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional and State Governments „„Windows of opportunity for action. Cities includes a chapter on setting priority planning areas. The guidebook can be downloaded can link proposed adaptation actions to the City of Cape Town. 2011. “Energy and Climate online at: http://www.cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/snoveretalgb574.pdf local planning cycle, by aligning adaptation Change.� http://www.capetown.gov.za/en/ Source: Snover and others 2007. 42 4. Developing a RoaDmap foR aDaptation EnvironmentalResourceManagement/projects/ Horton, Radley M. 2009. “Preparation of Background _____. 2011e. “Multi-level Governance for Adaption: climatechange/Pages/default.aspx. Materials for Climate Change Adaptation Focusing on Regional Government’s Role� Resilient City of Chicago. 2011. Chicago Climate Action Plan. Handbook for Mayors.� Washington, DC: World Cities Congress Session D3 description. http:// http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/. Bank. resilient-cities.iclei.org/bonn2011/program/ ICLEI. 2011a. “Cities in Focus II: Vulnerability saturday-4-june-2011/d3-multi-level-governance/. City of London. 2011a. The London Plan. http://www. london.gov.uk/thelondonplan/climate/. Assessments in Action.� Resilient Cities Congress _____. 2011f. Changing Climate, Changing Session B5 description. http://resilient-cities. Communities—Municipal Climate Adaptation _____. 2011b. “Green Grid.� http://legacy.london.gov. iclei.org/bonn2011/program/friday-3-june-2011/ Guide and Workbook. Toronto: ICLEI Canada. uk/mayor/strategies/sds/docs/spg-east-lon-green- b5-cities-in-focus-ii-vulnerability-assessment-in- _____. 2011g. Financing the Resilient City: A Demand grid-08.pdf action/. Driven Approach to Development, Disaster Risk City of New York. 2011. “PlaNYC.� http://www.nyc. _____. 2011b. “Resilience to Climate Change: National Reduction and Climate Adaptation. ICLEI Global gov/html/planyc2030/html/home/home.shtml. and State-level Legislation and Local Government Report. Bonn, Germany: ICLEI. City of Surat, 2011. “Surat City Resilience Strategy.� Response.� Resilient Cities Congress Session IPCC. 2001. Third Assessment Report. http://www.suratclimatechange.org/page/19/ C3 description. http://resilient-cities.iclei.org/ surat-city-resilience-strategy-%E2%80%93-draft- _____. 2007. Contribution of Working Group bonn2011/program/saturday-4-june-2011/ document.html. II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the c3-resilience-to-climate-change/. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, by City of Toronto. 2007. “Cities Preparing for Climate _____. 2011c. “Mainstreaming adaptation and M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Change: A Study of Six Urban Regions.� http:// resilience.� Resilient Cities Congress Session Linden and C.E.Hanson, eds. Cambridge, UK and adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/pdf/171e_e.pdf. C2 description. http://resilient-cities.iclei.org/ NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. The Climate Group. 2011. “Basque Country Approves bonn2011/program/saturday-4-june-2011/ King County. 2005. “The Future Ain’t What It Pioneering Climate Change Bill.� c2-mainstreaming-adaptation/. Used to Be.� Conference proceedings. http:// http://www.theclimategroup.org/our-news/ _____. 2011d. “Building Sustainable Action Plans in www.kingcounty.gov/exec/globalwarming/ news/2011/5/30/Basque-Country-approves- Mid-size Latin American Cities: A Vehicle for environmental/2005-climate-change-conference. pioneering-climate-change-bill/ Integrating Cross-sector Response to Climate aspx GCIF. 2011. Website. http://www.cityindicators.org/. Action.� Resilient Cities Congress Session _____. 2007. King County Climate Plan. http://your. B4 description. http://resilient-cities.iclei. Henriques, Jorge Castro. 2009. “Urban Agriculture and kingcounty.gov/exec/news/2007/pdf/ClimatePlan. org/bonn2011/program/friday-3-june-2011/ Resilience in Lisbon: The Role of the Municipal pdf b4-building-sustainable-action-plans-in-mid-size- Government.� Urban Agriculture Magazine, June _____. 2008; Vulnerability of Major Wastewater latin-american-cities/. 2009: 49-50. Facilities to Flooding from Sea Level Rise. 43 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities http://www.kingcounty.gov/environment/waste- cities.� A research project conducted by the Wamsler, Christine. 2007. “Bridging the Gaps: water/CSI/Library/SeaLevelRise.aspx. Economist Intelligence Unit, sponsored by Stakeholder-based Strategies for Risk Reduction Lempert, Robert. 2011. Personal correspondence with Siemens. http://www.siemens.com/press/pool/ and Financing for the Urban Poor.� Environment World Bank staff. de/events/2011/corporate/2011-02-asia/asian-gci- and Urbanization 19 (1): 115–142. report-e.pdf. World Bank. 2010. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Moser, Caroline, Andrew Norton, Alfredo Stein and Sophia Georgieva. 2010. “Pro-Poor Adaptation Simatele, D. 2009. “Urban Climate Change Change: Synthesis Report. Washington, DC: World to Climate Change in Urban Centers: Case Adaptation and Assets: A Background Review Bank. Studies of Vulnerability and Resilience in Kenya of Current Community-focused Conceptual and _____. April 2011. “Building Urban and Nicaragua.� Washington, DC: The World Methodological Approaches." GURC Working Resilience in East Asia.� Part of An Bank Sustainable Development Network, Social Paper No. 3, University of Manchester: Global Eye on Asia Pacific series. http://sitere- Development Department, World Bank. Urban Research Centre. sources.worldbank.org/INTEASTASIAPACIFIC/ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Snover, A.K. and others. 2007. 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Susanne Becken, Jean-Paul Ceron, Ghislain Bonn2010-Zambrano-Barragan.pdf. http://eau.sagepub.com/content/20/2/521.full. Dubois, Stefan Gössling, Paul Peeters and Murray pdf+html C. Simpson. Commissioned report. Madrid, Spain. http://www.uneptie.org/shared/publications/pdf/ Siemens. 2011. “Asian Green City Index—Assessing WEBx0142xPA-ClimateChangeandTourismGlobalC the environmental performance of Asia’s major hallenges.pdf 44 5. inFormAl settlements, the urbAn poor, And other vulnerAble groups 5. Informal Settlements, the Urban Poor, and Other Vulnerable Groups This chapter provides guidance and resources on climate change adaptation in relation to the most vulnerable people in cities—residents of informal settlements, the urban poor, and other disad- vantaged groups (for example, women, children, elderly, disabled and chronically ill, and minority communities). Many issues related to informal settlements and urban poverty are highly complex, with a large body of accompanying literature and experience—this chapter does not attempt to pro- vide a comprehensive treatment of these topics. Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change on the Most Vulnerable Several features of urban informal settlements make them particularly susceptible to risks from climate change impacts: lack of secure land tenure, lack of access to basic infrastructure and services, and overcrowding. These factors are not neces- sarily distinct from one another; for example, lack of access to basic services is often a consequence of insecurity of land tenure. Figure 5.1 describes photo: World Bank Photo Collection 45 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities these aspects of informal settlements in context interviews of influential community leaders, whether independently or as part of a broader of larger trends driving vulnerability and limiting residents and stakeholders (for example, doctors, assessment process. adaptive capacity of informal settlements. It also teachers, or NGOs) can yield valuable information, outlines the potential consequences of climate change associated with these vulnerabilities. figuRe 5.1 TRenDs DRiving vulneRabiliTy anD limiTing aDaPTive caPaciTy of infoRmal seTTlemenTs Table 5.1 provides a similar overview of trends driving climate change vulnerability of other Conditions Creating Illustrations of Climate Global and Vulnerability or Limiting Change Impacts, If disadvantaged groups, including women, children, National Trends  Local Trends  Adaptive Capacity  No Action Is Taken the elderly, disabled, and chronically ill, and Inadequate urban Weak land Deterrence of public and private Exacerbated flooding because minorities and indigenous groups. These trends economic development administration and investment and service provision, of substandard drains blocked regulation because of insecure tenure and/or with uncollected garbage can leave these groups vulnerable to the follow- Rural-urban migration illegality of settlement leading to rapid Creation of informal Mortality and property loss, ing climate change impacts: illness or mortality urbanization and unplanned Lack of economic assets (for both localized and distributed during a crisis; separation from family (elderly and settlements on example, property, money, or credit), across multiple communities Lack of affordable marginal land (for political power, and education children); further loss of economic assets and live- formal housing in Faster spread of example, floodplains, needed to adapt effectively urban areas communicable diseases (for lihood; and disappearance of culture or cultural steep hillsides, or Concentrations of vulnerable example, cholera and malaria) landfills) practices (indigenous groups). communities and economic assets from stagnant flood waters lack of secure land exposed to extreme hazards (for and compromised immune tenure* example, flooding from heavy rains or systems A critical step in helping the most vulnerable storm surges in coastal areas) lack of access to Exacerbated poverty and adapt to climate change is to understand the infrastructure and Structural weaknesses in housing barriers to economic basic services and infrastructure, including development specific impacts that they face in each city. The (for example, inadequate drainage Increased stress on city tools outlined in Chapter 4 can be helpful in this water, sanitation, Environmental degradation (for services (for example, public health, or regard. Cities committed to developing a deeper electricity)* example, uncollected solid waste, emergency response) in the untreated wastewater, contaminated future understanding about the unique issues that Overcrowding and waters near landfills, or reduction of stress on existing Further social fragmentation climate change poses to informal settlements infrastructure* protective ecosystem functions) and these vulnerable groups can pursue in-depth Social fragmentation, Public health concerns that weaken the adaptive capacity of an individual participatory and community-based assessment conflict, and crime or community (for example, diarrhea approaches, as described in Table 4.1. Although or infant mortality) cities may have limited to no quantitative data Sources: Sida 2007; Moser and others 2010; UNISDR 2009; Bull-Kamanga and others 2003. readily available about some vulnerable groups, *The boldfaced local trends (lack of secure land tenure, lack of access to infrastructure and services, and overcrowding) are also actual features of informal settlements. 46 5. inFormAl settlements, the urbAn poor, And other vulnerAble groups Special considerations when undertaking such livelihoods, and any special requirements they understand and respond to early warnings assessments include the following. may have (for example, special medical needs about climate risks), and features of social for the elderly, disabled, or chronically ill). networks, including sources of support and „„ As part of a vulnerability assessment, it is culturally effective ways of communicating. important to know where vulnerable groups „„To assess adaptive capacity, it is also useful are located, how much and what type of land to understand: knowledge and education These assessments can also reveal other com- they occupy, their daily cultural practices and levels (for example, whether individuals can munity concerns that could either hinder or help climate change adaptation (for example, fear of Table 5.1 conDiTions cReaTing vulneRabiliTy of Women, chilDRen, elDeRly, DisableD, anD minoRiTy gRouPs looting, uncertainty about possible shelter, anxi- ety about being displaced, and skepticism about Groups Conditions Creating Vulnerability whether an extreme weather warning is genuine Women Limited personal assets including limited or no land ownership. and accurate) (Hardoy and Pandiella 2009). Responsibility as caretakers and first responders. Dependence on natural resources (for example, water or fuel). Dependency on male family members. Lack of education, related to limited or no power in decision making and/or lack of access to essential Building Adaptive information (for example, early warnings). Capacity among the Most Vulnerable Restrictive dress codes that limit mobility. Coping skills (for example, tree climbing or swimming) taught only to boys. Children Lack of independence and personal assets. Cities can take a number of steps to help build Reliance on parents/adults for decision making and protection. the adaptive capacity of the most vulnerable. As Lack of physical strength compared to adults. described in Chapter 3, these climate change ad- Lack of safe play areas. aptation activities can be integrated with disaster Elderly, disabled, Reliance on others for care (for example, medicine, food and/or evacuation procedures) and sometimes risk reduction work that may already be ongoing. and chronically ill decision making (for example, health care residence). Box 5.1 summarizes the key findings from recent Changes in family relationships, resulting in less reliability of family help (elderly). work at the World Bank for the Mayors Task Force Lack of assets and financial resources because of absence of insurance and/or pensions (elderly). on Climate Change, Disaster Risk and the Urban Minority and Social or linguistic isolation. Poor. Box 5.2 describes the example of the city indigenous groups Economic disadvantage. of Khulna, Bangladesh, where ongoing efforts Dependence on natural resources (poor and indigenous groups). address the needs of many of the city’s most Sources: World Bank 2010; Moser and Satterthwaite 2010; Bartlett 2008; O’Brien 2007; Klineberg 2002. vulnerable residents. 47 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities and underserved. In fact, city leaders can consider Raising aWaReness abouT The incluDing The mosT vulneRable this type of assessment process as an investment sPecific climaTe change imPacTs on in The aDaPTaTion Planning anD in building awareness and commitment among The mosT vulneRable. city staff and other city residents to focus on the Policy-making PRocess. Gaining and sharing knowledge about the unique pressing concerns of poverty and inequity, a first Once a city has made a commitment to include impacts of climate change on vulnerable groups step to building stronger adaptive capacity both in the most vulnerable in climate change impacts and in informal settlements can be powerful, as the city government and in the target community. assessments, it will be a natural progression many communities have long been unrecognized to engage these groups in the planning and box 5.1 mayoRs’ Task foRce on climaTe change, DisasTeR Risk anD The uRban PooR box 5.2 uRban goveRnance anD The Mayors’ Task Force on Climate Change, Disaster Risk and the Urban Poor was initiated at the Mayors’ Summit infRasTRucTuRe imPRovemenT in khulna, in Copenhagen in 2009 with the aim to improve understanding of these issues, identify good practice examples, and banglaDesh propose policy and investment programs to improve the resilience of the urban poor. The city of Khulna, Bangladesh, faces multiple cli- mate change impacts, including flooding, cyclones, As part of the Mayors’ Task Force, the World Bank carried out a global study on Climate Change, Disaster Risk and and drought, in addition to an array of existing the Urban Poor that examined the intersection of these three areas in cities. Key findings from the study include: conditions, such as high population density, rapid „„The urban poor are on the front line. The poor are particularly vulnerable to climate change and natural urbanization, low literacy rates, high malnutrition hazards due to where they live within cities, and the lack of reliable basic services. among children (56 percent), and low income „„ City governments are the drivers for addressing risks. Local governments play a vital role in providing levels. The city contains 520 of the country’s 9,000 basic services that are critical to improving the resilience of the urban poor. slums, and faces an influx of climate migrants. The German Development Cooperation has supported „„ City officials build resilience by mainstreaming risk reduction into urban management. Climate the Khulna City Corporation to develop its climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction cab are best addressed and sustained over time through integra- change resilience through a two-pronged approach tion with existing urban planning and management practices. addressing urban governance and infrastructure „„ Significant financial support is needed. Local governments need to leverage existing and new resources improvement. Efforts include capacity develop- to meet the shortfalls in service delivery and basic infrastructure adaptation. ment for alternative water and sanitation plans, In addition, as part of this effort, four city-level case studies—in Dar es Salaam, Jakarta, Mexico City, and Sao improved service delivery of safe drinking water Paulo —applied the Urban Risk Assessment framework (see also Table 4.1). Further information is available through for the city’s slums and floating homes, and sup- http://www.worldbank.org/urban. port of a sustainable pro-poor transportation plan. Source: ICLEI 2011. 48 5. inFormAl settlements, the urbAn poor, And other vulnerAble groups policy-making processes. Giving the most vul- reforestation and low-cost drainage technologies, helping them, especially if they are skeptical nerable a “seat at the table� at every stage of such as storm-water channels to divert water about the depth of a municipal government’s climate change adaptation can break new ground, from homes, and collection of roof water in bar- commitment to their needs. Through the work of a reducing the persistent political disadvantages rels (SouthSouthNorth 2006). number of international NGOs, progress has been they tend to face. This type of action can have made on developing positive models for CBA, as positive secondary effects, such as educating the Not all CBA strategies will be effective in the long well as tools for cities and other practitioners rest of the city’s population about the problems term. For example, moving valuables to the top wanting to invest in developing adaptive capacity that climate change poses to disadvantaged shelf of a cabinet in case of flooding or building a at the grassroots level (see Box 5.3). groups, and creating a model for more inclusive second floor of a house to allow temporary escape planning processes in other issue areas. Even in a flood-prone location may alleviate short-term concerns about property loss (Satterthwaite suPPoRTing insTiTuTions ThaT more importantly, cities may gain new insights from informal local approaches already underway, 2011). However, if flooding continues to increase alReaDy WoRk WiTh The mosT as many communities living with the risks of di- in frequency and intensity, these strategies may vulneRable. sasters and climate variability have independently actually keep people and their assets in harm’s Many international and local nongovernmental developed coping mechanisms of their own and way, delaying the consequences of flooding, actors and community-based organizations have can be extremely resourceful. rather than avoiding them altogether. Moreover, already earned the trust of disadvantaged commu- communities may be reluctant to give up adaptive nities, based on a history of providing services that practices that were developed when no one was range from first response in cases of disaster to incoRPoRaTing communiTy-baseD aDaPTaTion inTo ciTy Plans, When aPPRoPRiaTe. box 5.3 communiTy-baseD aDaPTaTion exchange Community-based adaptation (CBA) strategies can Following the fifth Community-Based Adaptation (CBA) conference in Dhaka in 2011, the Global Initiative on build long-term adaptive capacity. Approaches CBA (GICBA) has been formally launched, including a Google Earth-based CBA platform for sharing knowledge, that draw on natural sources of adaptive capacity, experiences, and good practices on CBA in a variety of contexts, including urban settings. These efforts are such as women’s knowledge of natural resources, intended to share information about grassroots adaptation strategies generated by communities, developed in or the ingenuity of a homeowner committed response to a growing awareness of the need to learn about what residents and stakeholder groups are already to staying in his house, can be more durable doing to adapt—rather than to impose top-down adaptation strategies on them. More information is available at than top-down prescriptions from a city official. http://www.weadapt.org/gicba and http://community.eldis.org/cbax/. Examples of municipal collaboration with resi- Source: CBA Exchange 2011. dents include reducing landslide impacts through 49 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities investment in longer-term resilience. Partnership this persistent problem are complicated—co- now established that the perception of tenure se- with or support of NGOs and community groups ordinated commitment to 1) stronger land use curity for the poor—a sense of safety from being can make city efforts more effective, as these administration and 2) investment in affordable evicted—can be as important as the formal titling organizations can have a depth of knowledge housing on land that is not exposed to severe itself (Angel 1983; Skinner 1987; Razzazz 1993; about social networks, cultural practices, and lo- climate change risks. Gilbert 2002). Thus, while land titling can open cally effective communications that complement up new avenues for building adaptive capacity that of a city government. This can be especially Tenure security can provide incentives for among informal settlements, it is also a nuanced true when city budgets are simply too limited to residents of informal settlements to invest in and challenging topic without an easy path. provide full attention to community needs. upgrading their homes, contribute to building community infrastructure, and use their property Chapter 6 provides more detail on the importance as a productive asset, particularly when jobs and of sound land use and housing strategies to sTRengThening lanD other sources of income are scarce. Evidence from reduce vulnerability. aDminisTRaTion anD RegulaTion, the slums of Lima, Peru, indicates that when land anD exPloRing The benefiTs of is legally secure, its value is 12 times more than in gRanTing lanD TiTle To infoRmal areas classified as removable; furthermore, when References seTTlemenTs. property titles were provided to residents, the Action Aid International. 2006. “Unjust Waters: Climate The occupation of marginal land is a key factor af- rate of housing renovations and improvements Change, Flooding and Protection of Poor Urban fecting vulnerability among informal settlements rose by 68 percent (Field 2005). Communities: Experiences from Six African Cities.� and the urban poor, but is clearly a very difficult Angel, S. 1983. “Land Tenure for the Urban Poor� in Yet, it is important to note that granting land Land for Housing the Poor, eds. S. Angel, R.W. challenge to address. The primary solutions to title alone is not a solution to urban poverty. Archer, S. Tanphiphat and E.A. Wegelin. Singapore: Legalization can actually lead to increased prop- Select Books. erty prices and rents, potentially making the newly Bartlett, Sheridan. 2008. “Climate Change and FURThER RESOURCES legalized settlement unaffordable for the poorest Urban Children: Impacts and Implications for The Liveable and Just Toolkit is the result of a project by the Victorian Local Governance Association (VLGA) and Melbourne University’s McCaughey Centre to (Roy 2005). Formal land titling can also be expen- Adaptation in Low- and Middle-income Countries.� explore how local governments across Victoria, Australia, are responding to the social sive and bureaucratically complex, as evidenced International Institute for Environment and and equity impacts of climate change. The toolkit provides a practical framework in Rio de Janeiro where the Favela-Bairro project Development (IIED). http://www.iied.org/pubs/ to integrate social and equity concerns into climate change responses, and it offers ideas for local governments to develop climate change responses that simultaneously made slow progress on titling, despite successful pdfs/10556IIED.pdf work toward social justice. The toolkit is available online at: www.vlga.org.au/ investments in urban upgrading and basic ser- Bull-Kamanga and others. 2003. “From Everyday Resources/Liveable_Just_Toolkit.aspx. vices (Handzic 2010). Considerable research has Hazards to Disasters: The Accumulation of Risk in 50 5. inFormAl settlements, the urbAn poor, And other vulnerAble groups Urban Areas.� Environment and Urbanization, vol Hoornweg, M. Friere, M. Lee, P. Bhada and B. Yuen Sida. 2007. “Climate Change from an Urban 15, no 1, pp 193-203. (pp.124-139).Washington, DC: World Bank. Perspective.� Urban Issue Paper. Stockholm: Community Based Adaptation Exchange. 2011. Moser, Caroline and Satterthwaite, David. 2010. Sida. http://www.sida.se/sida/jsp/ Website: http://community.eldis.org/cbax/. “Toward Pro- Poor Adaptation to Climate Change sida.jsp?d=118&a=33730&language=en_ in the Urban Centers of Low and Middle Income US&searchWords=climate%20change%20 Field, Erica. 2005. “Property Rights and Investment in Countries� in Social Dimensions of Climate from%20an%20urban%20perspective Urban Slums.� Journal of the European Economic Association 3(23), 279-290. Change Equity and Vulnerability in A Warming Skinner, Reinhard J., Taylor, John, and Wegelin, Emiel, World, eds. R. Mearns and A. Norton (pp. 231- eds. 1987. Shelter Upgrading for the Urban Poor: Gilbert, Alan. 2002. “On the Mysteries of Capital and 258). Washington, DC: World Bank. Evaluation of Third World Experience. Manila, the Myths of De Soto.� IDPR 24. Ndugwa, Robert Peter and Eliya M. Zulu. 2008. “Child Philippines: Island Publishing House, Inc in Handzic, K. 2010. “Is Legalized Land Tenure Necessary cooperation with United Nations Center for Human Morbidity and Care-seeking in Nairobi Slum in Slum Upgrading? Learning from Rio’s Land Settlements and Institute for Housing Studies. Settlements: The Role of Environmental and Socio- Tenure Policies in the Favela Bairro Program.� economic Factors.� Journal of Child Health Care. SouthSouthNorth. 2006. “Potential Adaptation Projects Habitat International 34 (1) (2010), pp. 11–17 O’Brien, K. and Leichenko, R. 2007. Human Security, Report: Brazil. 2005-2008.� http://webcache. Hardoy, Jorgelina and Pandiella, Gustavo. 2009. “Urban googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:mPyCW2_ Vulnerability and Sustainable Adaptation. Poverty and Vulnerability to Climate Change in fxyMJ:www.southsouthnorth.org/download. UNDP Occasional Paper for the UNDP Human Latin America.� Environment and Urbanization asp%3Fname%3DSSN2_Report_Adaptation%252 Development Report. 21:203 0Context_%2520final4.pdf%26size%3D4814863% Razzazz, O.1993. “Examining Property Rights and ICLEI. 2011. “Adapting Cities to Climate Change 26file%3Ddocuments/SSN2_Report_Adaptation% Investments in Informal Settlements: The Case of and the Urban poor: Experiences of the German 2520Context_%2520final4.pdf+south+south+north Jordan.� Land Economics Development Cooperation in Bangladesh.� +macacos+hill+reforestation&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk Resilient Cities Congress Session B2 description. Roy, A. 2005. “Urban Informality: Towards an &gl=us&source=www.google.com. http://resilient-cities.iclei.org/bonn2011/program/ Epistemology of Planning.� Journal of the UNISDR. 2009. Global Assessment Report on Disaster friday-3-june-2011/b2-adapting-cities-to-climate- American Planning Association, 71(2), 147-158. Risk Reduction. http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/ change-and-the-urban-poor/. Satterthwaite, David. 2011. “What Role for Low- publications/9413. Klineberg, Eric. 2002. Heat Wave: A Social Autopsy of income Communities in Urban Areas in Disaster World Bank. 2010. Social Dimensions of Climate Disaster. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Risk Reduction?� Part of the Global Assessment Change Equity and Vulnerability in a Warming Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. http://www. Moser, Caroline. 2011. “A Conceptual and Operational World, eds. R. Mearns and A. Norton. (p.19). preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/ Framework for Pro-Poor Asset Adaptation to Washington DC: World Bank. bgdocs/Satterthwaite_2011.pdf. urban Climate Change� in Cities and Climate Change Responding to an Urgent Agenda, eds. D. 51 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities 6. Sector–Specific Adaptive Responses This chapter provides a general overview of climate change impacts across the following sectors in cities: land use; housing; transportation; public health; water supply and sanitation; solid waste; food security; and energy. The sections on each sector also describe various approaches that can be adopted to address these impacts, with specific examples of adaptive responses that have been taken by cities around the world. Table 6.1 summarizes much of the information in this chapter, providing an overview of climate impacts, the sectors involved, and examples of adaptive responses. Adaptation Involves Collaboration across Sectors Adaptation is a dynamic process that usually in- volves multiple sectors, complex and challenging issues, and possibly, large infrastructure projects. The most durable adaptation efforts, thus, require resourcefulness and collaboration (see, for example, Boxes 6.1 and 6.2). Adaptation can also 52 photo: Chris Stowers / Panos Pictures 6. sector–speciFic AdAptive responses present opportunities for new collaboration that breaks down old organizational or political barri- box 6.1 aajeevika buReau ers among sectors. For example: Climate change may involve rapid demographic shifts, impacting social services across sectors. For instance, service provision for individuals who migrate to cities on a temporary and sometimes seasonal basis involves „„A mayor who sets a firm expectation of col- cross-cutting collaboration that can be achieved through NGOs. As one example, the Indian NGO Aajeevika laboration across city sectors on adaptation Bureau (“Livelihoods Bureau�) works to reduce the costs of mobility for migrants, including services to support can use this to rally transportation, housing, personal security and freedom from violence, and to increase the returns on migrant wage labor, both for migrants and land use planners to work together on and their families. Services include ID cards, job placement, shelter, and health insurance—a range of activities safer residential zoning and transit-oriented that require expertise in a variety of sectors. More information is available at http://www.aajeevika.org/. development, with additional benefits for evacuation and emergency management. box 6.2 uRban foRm anD infRasTRucTuRe Development decisions that affect urban form and infrastructure require cross-sector structural deficiencies, impervious surfaces that retain heat and lead to water pool- collaboration involving a variety of city officials, depending on the local context. ing, and reliance on private automobiles for transportation (Inverde 2011a). Urban form is the physical shape of a city, including the spatial and geographical A single city agency usually does not have the authority for all planning decisions layout of buildings and infrastructure. Urban form has significant implications for and investments that shape urban form; therefore, effective collaboration across sustainability and resilience: transit-oriented development in densely populated agencies and even sectors is critical for successful adaptation of a city’s physical areas, for example, can have such benefits as lower greenhouse gas emissions from landscape. Moreover, city planning and infrastructure decisions can “lock in� urban transportation, while the location of informal settlements in a floodplain without form for long periods of time, especially when physical investments have extended sound transportation options can make residents more vulnerable (World Bank 2011). life spans. In the absence of strong city planning, cities can experience sprawl and other unsustainable land use patterns because of uncontrolled growth. However, Infrastructure is the interlinked set of physical buildings and engineered systems an increasing number of cities and countries are recognizing the need to approach that underpin an important sector or activity, such as housing, transportation, water infrastructure decisions strategically—such as Ho Chi Minh City, through its major supply, wastewater treatment, storm water drainage, food storage, and energy (see investments in dike works, drainage, and waste and water management; and the Chapter 6). Geographic location, engineering methods, and types of materials used Czech Republic through a research program that aims to increase the resilience of to construct infrastructure are factors that determine its resilience, as well as the specific infrastructure areas (ICLEI 2011a). resilience of the community that relies on it. Examples of traditional infrastructure’s inability to meet the challenges of climate change include siting infrastructure Source: Authors. on low-lying or marginal land prone to flooding, leakages from pipes because of 53 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities Table 6.1 samPle of climaTe hazaRDs anD aDaPTive ResPonses acRoss secToRs Projected Change in Climate Drivers of Urban Exposure Consequences for Sample Adaptive Responses Relative Investment Phenomena (Likelihood) and Vulnerability Cities, if Unaddressed Sectors Involved (not an exhaustive list) Level / Cost Warmer with fewer cold days Urban heat island effect. Exacerbated air pollution Transportation, Green infrastructure, including improved vegetation and green Medium to high with significant and nights, more hot days and housing, private building investments for natural cooling. economic and sustainable Heat-induced illness and nights Lack of electricity and cooling sector building development cobenefits death systems, especially in many industry, public health (virtually certain) Retrofit of existing bus fleet with white roofs to reduce solar heat Low to medium informal settlements. gain and ventilation to ensure adequate air circulation. Hot spells/heat waves— Undertaking public relations campaigns to encourage passengers increased frequency to carry water with them to avoid heat stroke. (very likely) Lack of diversified energy Energy shocks and Energy Investment in clean energy and energy efficiency. Low to high, depending on the supply and substandard energy disruptions because of specific energy investment; infrastructure. increased demand significant cobenefits for economic prosperity and “green growth.� Heavy precipitation events— Rapid urban growth leading to Exacerbated flooding and Land use, housing, Development and enforcement of a sound land use plan that a) High, involving significant political increased frequency informal settlements on marginal landslides solid waste, public is based on understanding of climate change vulnerabilities, b) and staff investment (very likely) land with no roads or drainage health, emergency effectively encourages dense, mixed-use development in resilient systems, or drains that are management areas, and c) engages ecological planning approaches outside of clogged with debris and silt. city limits (for example, village-level watershed management on the Intensity of tropical cyclone outskirts of a city, protection of mangroves and wetlands on nearby activity increases coastline). (likely) Contaminated waters Improved solid waste handling practices (for example, proximity Medium to high. Rising sea level and spread of disease in to drinking water supply, corrosive-resistant containers) to stagnant waters prevent leakage and contamination. (virtually certain) Short-term clearance/disposal of solid waste from drains to Low (continued next page) prevent clogging. Public health engagement and risk prevention around likely flood- Low related diseases. Nonexistent or substandard Blockage of emergency Transportation, Investment in roads and other transportation choices for informal Medium to high transportation infrastructure. routes because of road emergency settlements. flooding, resulting in delayed management, private emergency evacuations sector Green infrastructure. Medium to high with significant economic and sustainable Losses in commercial development cobenefits activity Relocation of storage yards for buses and train cars out of flood- High prone areas to reduce the risk of damage or loss of this equipment. continued next page 54 6. sector–speciFic AdAptive responses Table 6.1 samPle of climaTe hazaRDs anD aDaPTive ResPonses acRoss secToRs Projected Change in Climate Drivers of Urban Exposure Consequences for Sample Adaptive Responses Relative Investment Phenomena (Likelihood) and Vulnerability Cities, if Unaddressed Sectors Involved (not an exhaustive list) Level / Cost Heavy precipitation events— Storm water infrastructure Increased runoff in absence Sanitation, solid Short-term clearance/disposal of solid waste from drains to Low increased frequency unable to deal with current or of vegetated land waste prevent clogging. (very likely) future runoff, compounded by Increased flooding Natural resources Investment in “green infrastructure� and ecosystem planning Low (localized planting) to high deforestation / degradation of management to improve natural storm water function. (for example, contour (large-scale infrastructure or natural storm water filtering Intensity of tropical cyclone functions. planting, terracing and afforestation for erosion control). afforestation) with significant activity increases economic and environmental (likely) cobenefits. Already high population densities Loss of property and Private sector Relocation of facilities out of flood-prone areas. High Rising sea level and concentrated commercial infrastructure, potentially (virtually certain) activities (for example, ports and before the end of their Sea walls or other structural investments to protect against High industry), located in coastal cities useful life coastal flooding. or in river deltas. Lower structural quality of homes, Loss of property and life Housing, emergency Retrofit of old buildings and improved design of new buildings (if Medium to high especially in informal settlements. management residents remain in vulnerable location). Stricter risk disclosure requirements for housing developers. Political and staff investment for sound enforcement Public awareness / emergency preparedness initiatives to Low educate residents on flooding risks. Location of aquifers, wastewater Saltwater infiltration of Water supply Modification of pipes. Medium treatment plants and other infrastructure (for example, Wastewater infrastructure in coastal areas or on potable water supplies and treatment river deltas. wastewater treatment) Areas affected by drought Existing water scarcity and Exacerbated water scarcity Water supply (with Utility piped water supply (assuming water supply is resilient). Medium to high increase competing pressures for water and competition implications for use (for example, potable energy sector in Reclaimed wastewater (resilient if properly managed). High (likely) water, irrigation, wastewater, areas of hydropower hydropower). generation) Long-term demand management and water use efficiency Low to medium programs. Food shortages or higher food prices because of impacts in other Food and agriculture Raising public awareness and developing municipal competency Low; with staff investment parts of the region or world. about food supply. Promotion of urban agriculture. Staff investment and potential high costs, if involving land purchase Development of city-level food storage infrastructure. High Sources: IPCC 2007; Foster and others 2011; Horton 2009; Action Aid 2006; UN-Habitat 2011; Simply Green 2009; Henriques 2009. See end of Chapter 6 for full list of citations. 55 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities „„An official who establishes a clear goal of Table 6.2 reflects several climate change At the same time, city governments often lack partnership on climate change adaptation adaptation goals that may require cross-sector sufficient staff, technical proficiency, or tools may find the staff of a wastewater treatment collaboration. necessary to engage in effective planning efforts agency more likely to collaborate with the to direct urban growth. The responsibilities for local water utility on an adaptive water planning, economic development, land tenure, reuse program than in the past. Land Use and other functions that direct growth are often distributed among local, regional, and national- Land use refers to where and how people use land level governments and their subsidiaries, making (for example, residential and commercial build- Table 6.2 samPle of aDaPTaTion goals ThaT coordination difficult. Poorly regulated land ings, farmland, water supply, energy production, may RequiRe collaboRaTion acRoss secToRs markets, lack of land tenure, limited enforcement or forestry). Land-use planning in cities includes Sectors Relevant of land use policies, and corruption all further to the Adaptation the management and regulation of those ac- limit the ability of city governments to direct Adaptation Goals Process tivities that exist within city boundaries, with the urban growth. Deciding and enforcing where to Land use, housing, potential to shape urban form and infrastructure promote expansion of industry, emergency and, thus, affect many other sectors, ranging from residential development, and management, and transportation infrastructure, in transportation. housing and transportation to public health. See climaTe change imPacTs order to limit related climate change risks to people and Boxes 6.2 and 6.3 for more discussion of urban Flooding associated with rising sea levels will business. form and infrastructure. lead to increased inundation of low-lying areas in Ensuring that communities Public health, water coastal cities, causing enormous losses in land and have sufficient potable water supply, sanitation, and Globally, urban populations are projected to grow and limiting climate-related solid waste. infrastructure values, if unaddressed. Significant health risks (for example, from 3.4 billion (in 2009) to 6.3 billion by 2050, infrastructure investments in coastal areas—such flooding exacerbated by clogged with small cities absorbing over 40 percent of the drains and disease related to as port and industrial facilities—often contribute contaminated flood waters) by expected increase (UN Department of Economics significantly to a city’s economy and typically have investing in water and sanitation & Social Affairs 2009). In the fast growing metro- infrastructure. service lives in excess of 60 years. Such facilities politan area of Concepcion, Chile, for example, 55 Long-term resilience of water, Water, food, in the most vulnerable coastal areas may need to food, and energy supply. transportation, percent of the land developed between 1975 and be abandoned before the end of their useful lives, energy (for water 2000 was wetlands; the remainder was either ag- conveyance as well if risks are considered to be too high. Damage or Short-term logistics of emergency as food refrigeration), ricultural or forest land (Pauchard and others 2005). and emergency abandonment of developed areas because of flood- water and food relief. management. ing may result in enormous losses in value of both Source: Authors. land and infrastructure (World Bank Group 2010). 56 6. sector–speciFic AdAptive responses Localized flooding will disproportionately impact Cities can develop and enforce land-use plans FURThER RESOURCES vulnerable communities located in high-risk urban that minimize climate change vulnerabilities and areas. The urban poor often resort to constructing promote growth in resilient locations. A sound The forthcoming Handbook on Urban Flood Risk Management—funded by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), and prepared by the World makeshift homes in areas of highest environmen- land-use plan that takes into account climate Bank in partnership with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and tal risk. Informal settlements are often located change vulnerabilities and is well-enforced—with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)—will provide practical technical on marginal lands that are affected dispropor- infrastructure siting that is consistent with the guidance to key policy and decision makers and technical specialists in cities in developing countries. The handbook will take a comprehensive view of flooding, tionately by increased rainfall—from low-lying plan—can be decisive in increasing the resilience including storm, river, and coastal flooding. It will contain such parameters as urban floodplains to steep slopes prone to landslides. of a community. Conversely, the lack of a plan or watershed modeling and management, urban planning (for example, building codes Low-income areas are also often the last areas weak enforcement can leave a city’s people and and zoning regulations and enforcement, and urban growth trends and patterns), infrastructure codes and scenario forecasts, drainage networks and links to solid to be provided with drainage infrastructure assets open to climate hazards. waste management and sewerage, flood barriers (for example, embankments, (Parkinson 2005). The settlements themselves can walls, retention ponds, and natural “green� buffers), resettlement and relocation, actually change and even create floodplains as a As urban populations increase, one of the top pri- institutional and policy/regulatory frameworks (including coordination across local orities for cities to consider is preventing critical government administrative boundaries), early warning systems, community-based result of removal of vegetation (a natural flood flood risk management, and financing mechanisms. Based on global experiences and barrier) or establishment of impervious surfaces, land uses (for example, residential construction or extensive local consultation, the handbook will include practical tools, checklists, such as roads. economic development) and infrastructure invest- templates, and links to resources. ments from occurring in vulnerable locations (for example, along waterways, in floodplains, or on aDaPTaTion aPPRoaches steep slopes). Promoting denser, mixed-use resi- Mapping vulnerabilities, understanding develop- ment pressures, and implementing policies and Understanding which areas of a city are most likely dential communities can increase development in infrastructure investments that encourage urban to be affected by sea-level rise or localized flooding existing, safe development zones, and increase expansion in safe areas can require land-use data is an important initial step in taking action to reduce the supply of affordable housing near employ- and technical capacity. Smaller cities without climate vulnerability. This type of assessment—per- ment, a key driver of informal settlement growth. the resources to pursue these planning activities haps most helpfully in the form of an actual map— Dense, mixed-use development also conveys the in-house can consider collaborating with external can be combined or overlaid with information about benefit of producing lower greenhouse gas emis- partners, such as regional or national-level gov- development pressures and projected expansions of sions by reducing the demand for transportation. ernments, who have expertise with planning tools, informal settlements. It would also be practical to Naturally, implementation may prove to be much such as advanced geographical information sys- consider information about new infrastructure and more difficult than assessment, as residents may tem (GIS) and scenario-based planning methods. planning needs related to climate change in the fear and resist relocation of their homes, or other context of existing development. disruptions associated with structural adaptation strategies. 57 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities Because the links between land use and infra- box 6.3 gReen infRasTRucTuRe anD ecosysTem seRvices structure are so strong, the most practical land Aspects of traditional infrastructure, such as pervious material and suppression of native landscapes, can create use plan informs a city’s choices about the loca- undesirable conditions, such as hot city streets, flooded roads and sidewalks, hardened shorelines, and poor tion of transportation, housing, environmentally water and air quality. It is, however, possible to rebuild local resilience by pursuing creative “green infrastructure� protected areas, wastewater, drainage, and other projects that leverage natural ecosystem services. Ecosystem services are the benefits that people derive from investments, viewing these activities as a whole. natural ecosystems (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005), such as the buffer that wetlands provide from Holistic land-use planning can accomplish the hurricanes and floods, and air filtration and cooling by trees. following: In Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the community group Inverde is advocating through a Green Streets guide for the use „„ Keep the long-term cost of development of satoyama, a traditional Japanese landscape practice that supports sustainability (Inverde 2011b). The city of down by building in areas that are less Bologna, Italy, has developed a public-private partnership to promote urban forestry, with the intention of se- vulnerable to climate change impacts and questering carbon dioxide, mitigating the urban heat island effect, and reducing air pollution (ICLEI 2011b). Green infrastructure approaches can also be very localized, such as storm water reuse at both apartment buildings and costs individual apartments. Some approaches to obtain ecosystem services are familiar, such as strategic analysis of „„ Encourage coordinated transportation and park distribution across the city of Chennai to help bring down temperatures in the summer. housing investments, so that people can These efforts can also have significant cobenefits, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving public health, afford to live in safe conditions with sound and enhancing quality of life. For instance, in Bangladesh, cyclones that first hit the Sundarbans mangrove forest transportation choices in cases of emergency showed a much reduced storm surge and resulted in significantly fewer fatalities (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment „„ Promote green infrastructure and sound 2005). In Taiwan, a strategic wetland conservation greenway along the west coast provides valuable habitat and di- watershed management (including urban verse ecosystem services, including flood protection (Hsieh and others 2004). Although these efforts are not specifically city-related, they do offer the insight that sound environmental management can have important additional advantages. forestry and village-level watershed protec- tion outside of city limits), which can reduce One traditional tool for biodiversity management is the Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA). A “com- storm water runoff, mitigate the urban heat munity learning platform� in support of the IEA is available at www.unep.org/ieacp/iea. The GRaBs project island effect, and improve public health (see (Green and Blue Space Adaptation for Urban Areas and Eco Towns) also provides a database of case studies on Box 6.3) lessons related to green and blue infrastructure, including investments related to water bodies, rivers, streams, floodplains, and sustainable drainage systems. More information is available at http://www.grabs-eu.org/ „„ Rehabilitate wetland riparian or estuarine casestudies.php. See the glossary for definition of green infrastructure. habitats (for example, coastal mangroves) that provide a natural ecosystem service, such as flood protection. 58 6. sector–speciFic AdAptive responses can cause partial or complete building destruction. surges, resulting in potential permanent damage Housing and Buildings Such storms will have a disproportionate impact to homes and displacement. Housing affects many aspects of city residents’ on those with homes of lower structural quality, especially those in informal settlements. Increases in the frequency and severity of lives, including transportation, employment, heat waves because of climate change pose and public health. In many cities in developing Floods pose risks for homes and buildings, additional risks for occupants of homes without countries, people who cannot afford homes in the particularly those located adjacent to rivers and cooling methods. Cities in Africa, Asia, and South formal housing sector end up living informally— deltas, and informal settlements on marginal land. America are particularly at risk of extreme heat without land tenure and without basic infrastruc- Whether a home or building is affected by floods (UN-HABITAT 2010), although regions that are ture and services. Homes in informal settlements depends greatly on where it is located, although typically temperate or even cool will also experi- are typically built incrementally over time, do not structural quality and elevation are also key factors. ence hotter temperatures for which they may not tend to use robust building techniques or materi- The immediate impact of flooding includes public be prepared. Very young children, the elderly, and als, and are often constructed on marginal and un- health risk (see section Public Health of Chapter 6) the infirm are most susceptible to heat strokes safe lands (see Chapter 5). Housing officials at the and property damage, although dampness may also and other health risks of heat. Fires may also city level face an array of challenges—ranging facilitate the accumulation of mold long after flood- threaten residential areas, whether localized (for from insufficient capacity to lack of enforcement ing has subsided, particularly in humid climates example, homes based near flammable materials authority—in regulating and shaping these trends (FEMA 2011). associated with compost or landfills) or related to in informal settlements. Cities with insufficient widespread regional forest fires, such as in the capacity to keep sound administrative records Increasing sea levels will impact homes and western United States. on buildings, or without the necessary staff to buildings in coastal communities. According to regulate compliance, can find it difficult to prevent UN-HABITAT, coastal flooding affects 10 million When disasters strike, residents may need the construction of shoddy homes and buildings. people each year, a number expected to increase temporary shelter, as homes and buildings be- exponentially because of climate change (UN- come uninhabitable. Although disaster response climaTe change imPacTs HABITAT 2010). Because sea-level rise is not plans often take into consideration emergency uniform across regions, some communities in shelter needs— for example, through the use of Intense storms, including tropical cyclones, can places, such as subsiding deltas and the Pacific’s public buildings, such as schools or community have abrupt, but lasting, consequences for a city’s small island states, are particularly vulnerable centers—they often lack official arrangements homes and buildings (IPCC 2007 as cited in World (IPCC 2007). Structural impacts of sea level rise for the longer-term post-disaster housing needs Bank 2009). Because of their extreme nature, cy- can be more serious when combined with storm of evacuated residents. This can be true for resi- clones can induce erosion and landslides, which dents of both informal and formal housing. 59 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities structural renovations can be harder and highly important, but often challenging to imple- aDaPTaTion aPPRoaches more expensive to achieve than simply ment successfully in many cities. Cities can regulate housing directly through build- building resilient homes from the start „„To implement building regulations effectively, ing codes and zoning, and also indirectly influence (UN-HABITAT 2010). housing markets through transportation and government capacities in monitoring and „„ When new buildings are too expensive enforcement are essential. Robust anticor- infrastructure planning and investment. Perhaps the most effective tools for a city to employ in or otherwise not possible, retrofits can ruption efforts can be an important step regulating and providing affordable housing be attractive, especially for low-income to take in reducing the vulnerability of the are a strong and enforced land-use plan and a or middle-income residents. In contrast, housing sector to prevent circumvention complement of building codes that integrate safe wealthy residents tend to be much more of regulations, but they can be difficult to housing with transportation choices, wastewater able and likely to rebuild or relocate their implement successfully. (See also Chapters treatment, drainage, and other amenities. Cities homes entirely, by virtue of greater financial 3 and 5). can also pay closer attention to the vulnerability resources—a specific example of having „„ Cities can supplement regulatory action of places where people typically congregate, such substantial adaptive capacity. with transparency efforts, such as a as community centers or public squares, as well „„ Green homes and buildings can have both requirement for developers to assess and as other areas that people use in times of crisis, mitigation and adaptation cobenefits disclose the geographic or structural risks of such as schools and sports facilities. (Mehrotra and others 2009; TCPA 2007). In a housing development, and simultaneous Tokyo, tax credits are offered to developers public outreach to spread knowledge about Structural adaptation strategies, such as building and low-interest loans are offered to homeowner risks. elevation and resilient design, tend to be more homeowners who incorporate these strate- „„ Cities can also persuade homeowners cost-effective and easier to implement when gies into planning. Such strategies have been initiated at the time of construction. Structural to relocate through a buyout program, if implemented in Delhi as well. approaches range from the retrofit of homes and residential risks in a given location are simply buildings, such as addition of green roofs or sun „„ Simple strategies, such as light-colored roofs, too high to warrant staying and rebuilding shading to alleviate heat, water storage space can provide a cooling effect at low cost (see Land Use section of Chapter 6), but the and smart ventilation, to wholesale construction (ICLEI 2011c). financial resources for such a program may or deep upgrades (for example, elevation) of a be difficult to raise. Nonstructural strategies—such as strict enforce- building. „„ In future, for example in response to ment of zoning and building codes, risk disclosure „„ In responses to floods, homes and buildings requirements, and public outreach—are also dramatic sea-level rise, it is possible that can be elevated, although such in-depth some cities may decide to pursue a larger 60 6. sector–speciFic AdAptive responses and longer-term managed retreat strategy Transportation infrastructure is essential for both infrastructure, such as bridge clearances in areas at very high risk, where no other people and commerce, in daily life as well as in or drainage capacity. cost-effective solution has been identified times of emergency: a city’s transportation system „„Airports, usually located near urban (NOAA 2011). In highly developed residential is often inextricably linked with the effectiveness centers, can also be affected by chang- and commercial areas, such an approach of its emergency response. Many cities in devel- ing wind patterns and extreme weather would undoubtedly come with great political oping countries lack sound and diverse transpor- events. and financial expense. tation infrastructure. Critical infrastructure either does not exist or is substandard relative to current „„Acute heat can also cause a range of nega- In considering various adaptation approaches climate hazards. Moreover, transportation agen- tive impacts across the transportation sector. for housing, it is important to recognize the cies are often insufficiently staffed and funded. „„ Loss of vegetation because of extreme constraints that many homeowners face. Homeowners may be unaware of the extent of heat or drought can lead to increased their homes’ structural vulnerability. Structural climaTe change imPacTs storm water runoff, which may wash assessments to identify home vulnerabilities Cities have different transportation vulnerabilities, away roads and bridges (Lwasa 2010). may be unaffordable and may also be unpopular, depending on their locations; for example, coastal „„ Roads may suffer from pavement if changes involve temporary displacement or if cities with maritime ports face different issues deterioration caused by high surface structural vulnerabilities are considered so large from inland cities. In general, cities in all locations temperatures that can lead, in turn, to that residents do not find changes to be worthy are likely to face the impacts of extreme storms problems with expansion joints and investments. When lacking appropriate financial and acute heat on their transportation infrastruc- long-term damage (Federal Government resources, residents often resort to stopgap mea- ture. Some of the greatest concerns include the of Germany 2008). sures that may not be sustainable in the long term. following: „„ Extreme heat conditions can cause the „„ Extreme storm events can paralyze expansion of train rails, which may transportation infrastructure, further isolat- require slower speeds and cause delays. Transportation ing vulnerable communities with limited „„ Heaving in both roads and rails may shut Transportation infrastructure—in four primary provisions, such as food or medicine, during down traffic or cause accidents. categories: roads, bridges and tunnels; passenger emergencies. and freight rail; ports and inland waterways; „„ Increased storm intensity can overwhelm and airports—comprises an extensive range the capacity of existing transport of both public and private assets and services. 61 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities cases of emergency (Ministry of Agriculture can be combined with nonmotorized FURThER RESOURCES and Forestry of Finland 2005). Inclusion of transportation options, such as bicycle In April 2011, the IFC published “Climate Risk and Business: Ports,� a framework for informal settlements in the transportation paths and pedestrian walkways, to reduce evaluating the risks of climate change on port operations and associated options for adaptation. The report focuses on Terminal Maritimo Muelles el Bosque, a port in service area may require serving mar- greenhouse gas emissions and achieve Cartagena, Colombia, but can be used to assess climate change vulnerabilities and ginal land, but can also have cobenefits for public health benefits (Frumkin and others adaptation options for other ports around the world. The report found several drivers economic development and poverty reduction 2004; Ewing and others 2008). of port vulnerability to climate change, including geographic locations on coasts, rivers, or lakes and reputational reliance on economic and infrastructure stability by providing residents with better access to for success (IFC 2011). More information is available at: http://www.ifc.org/ifcext/ jobs and business opportunities. Cities have a variety of low-cost options for climatebusiness.nsf/Content/ClimateRiskandBusinessPorts. adaptation in the transportation sector. When „„ During construction, cities can “build once� resources are limited, cities can consider less to a higher standard, rather than to build to expensive business practices or investments in lower standards initially and then be forced aDaPTaTion aPPRoaches shorter-lived infrastructure. to retrofit later. Examples of this include the Cities can integrate climate-resilient transportation following: increasing bridge clearances to „„All cities can improve transportation cus- priorities, including developing new transportation accommodate higher water levels; increasing tomer communications, such as proactively choices, with land-use plans and building codes. design specifications for culvert diameters; encouraging bus riders to bring water to „„A general planning principle for all transpor- and reconsidering the design of road avoid heat illness in case of extreme heat or tation networks is to avoid flood-sensitive underpasses to account for heavy rains and sharing information about different evacu- areas as much as possible, and incorporate flooding. ation options in case of emergency (Horton climate change into all relevant decisions 2009; Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of „„ Green infrastructure, such as pervious concerning transportation infrastructure Finland 2005). surfaces, can also help to make transporta- (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of tion more resilient, with direct advantages „„ Cities expecting average temperatures to Finland 2005; Coffee et al. 2010). For cities such as decreasing both ponding and runoff rise can retrofit existing bus fleets with exposed to flooding, relocating existing during rainstorms. Research has shown that white roofs to reduce solar heat gain and storage yards for buses and train cars out pervious pavement can lead to a reduced ventilation to ensure adequate air circulation of flood-prone areas can reduce the risk of need for road salt application on streets in (Horton 2009). damage to or loss of equipment. the winter by as much as 75 percent, as well „„ Coastal cities expecting sea-level rise can „„ Expansion of transportation infrastructure as a reduction in road noise of 10 decibels work with ports and maritime businesses to and transit-oriented development is critical (CNT 2010 and Schwartz 2010, as cited in synchronize shipping schedules around high to ensure flexibility of evacuation options in Foster and others 2011). These approaches tides to avoid problems with bridge clearance. 62 6. sector–speciFic AdAptive responses Some transportation adaptation options will re- most exposed to extreme heat, but the deaths of water in slums lacking adequate water and sani- quire collaboration with the private sector, because 35,000 elderly people during the 2003 European tation services can also create optimal conditions in many cities, private entities provide transporta- heat wave shows that climate impacts can affect for dengue-carrying mosquitoes. tion infrastructure and services (see Chapter 7 on all cities regardless of income level (Confalonieri how city governments can work with the private and others 2007, 397; Wolf and others 2010). aDaPTaTion aPPRoaches sector to leverage funding for adaptation). Urban smog and related respiratory diseases have also been linked to increased temperatures Expanding health care services for the urban poor (Confalonieri and others 2007, 402). is a direct way to reduce climate change vulner- Public Health Both temperature and flooding increase the ability and enhance adaptive capacity. Increased accessibility of formal health clinics and medical Cities often face the challenges of health care global burden of disease and premature deaths. personnel to serve the poor enhances not only systems that are already strained by deficiencies In 2000, climate change was estimated to be the well-being of poor residents but also their in primary care and weaknesses in other services responsible for approximately 2.4 percent of resilience to climate change impacts (WHO 2011). that are important for public health, such as water worldwide diarrhea and 6 percent of malaria in supply and sanitation. As described in Chapter 5, some middle income countries (WHO 2002, 72). Systems to monitor disease and provide early the poor often live in overcrowded areas where Weather extremes can spur the spread of vector- warnings about disasters can help to improve the absence of adequate sanitation and drainage borne diseases, such as malaria (Confalonieri resilience by influencing behavior (WHO 2002, leads to high environmental health risks, such and others 2007, 404). For example, areas where 227). This is especially true if such systems are as polluted and stagnant water that offers ideal malaria was once eradicated by means of quinine, deployed in conjunction with public awareness breeding sites for mosquitoes (Kovats and Akhtar swamp drainage, and such pesticides as Southern campaigns that effectively leverage community 2008, 165). Furthermore, particularly in cities of Europe (Bowden and others 2008, 1085) as well sources of knowledge and communications, such low-income countries, such health problems as as areas once immune, such as highland East poor nutrition and indoor air pollution already Africa (Githeko and Ndegwa 2001, 54), will poten- impair poor populations. tially become susceptible to malaria’s resurgence. FURThER RESOURCES Moreover, water-borne diseases spread quickly World Health Organization (WHO) has a long-standing commitment and program to climaTe change imPacTs during floods, as in Maputo where the disruption protect public health from climate change impacts, which is implemented through of water and sanitation services led to outbreaks WHO regional and headquarters offices. The program is intended “to strengthen the The urban heat island effect can exacerbate heat health system response to climate change, and to ensure that health is appropriately of dysentery and cholera (ActionAid 2006, 6) and waves and worsen air quality over time. Those considered in decisions made by other sectors, such as energy and transport� (WHO Mumbai where there was an increase in lepto- 2011). More information is available at: http://www.who.int/globalchange/en/. living in slums and working outdoors are the spirosis (Kovats and Akhtar 2009, 165). Stagnant 63 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities as women, kinship networks and community lead- preparation of hospitals and public services and informal settlements continue to face a deficit ers (Wolf and others 2010). during these extreme heat conditions (Tan in sanitation infrastructure, which can undermine 2003). Based on research conducted in Hong progress made on clean water (see also Chapter 5). Structural improvements in housing, transporta- Kong, such steps could contribute to lower tion, water supply and sanitation, as described in mortality compared to previous heat waves the other sections of this chapter, are important climaTe change imPacTs (Chau 2009). long-term investments that can enhance living Climate change is expected to intensify droughts, conditions, helping to avoid the public health risks resulting in disruptions to water supply even in hu- described above (WHO 2011). Water Supply and mid areas. Water-stressed regions with an annual Examples of public health strategies in practice Sanitation per capita availability below 1,000m3 are the most at risk; these include water basins in North Africa include the following: Clean water supply and sanitation are imperative and the Middle East, the Mediterranean, South „„ Rio de Janeiro developed an extensive for public health. Unsafe water and substandard Asia, the United States and Mexico, northeast website on dengue, outlining the symptoms sanitation infrastructure are presently among the of the disease, prevention measures, and primary risk factors for diarrhea, the second lead- ing contributor to global disease burden (UN-Water box 6.4 financial anD healTh cobenefiTs places to go, if an individual contracts 2011) (see Public Health section of Chapter 6). of WaTeR anD saniTaTion the disease. This information was also transmitted through the official antidengue UN Water’s 2010 Global Annual Assessment of Many cities grapple with the challenge of managing Sanitation and Drinking Water has stated that effort that brought public health workers current water use and increasing demand against the provision of improved sanitation and supply and other volunteers to the slums to educate shrinking future water supply, especially as current of drinking water could lead to a 90 percent residents about the disease (Governo do Rio reduction in diarrheal diseases. In addition, it has water infrastructure and management tend to be in- de Janeiro 2011). been estimated that every dollar of investment in flexible (ICLEI 2011d). In some cases, water sources „„ Geographic information systems (GIS) have water and sanitation can bring three to four dol- may be outside of city boundaries and not under lars in benefits. As a result, the WHO Commission helped the Amazonian city of Manaus in city jurisdiction. Robust water administration can on Macroeconomics and Health has called the Brazil to gather information and identify be technically complex and expensive, with critical expansion of access to safe drinking water and groups vulnerable to malaria (WHO 2010). activities as pumping, transportation, and desalina- basic sanitation a very cost-effective health „„A heat warning system in Shanghai alerts tion (in coastal areas) requiring energy-intensive intervention. These benefits are independent of residents to high temperatures, and the infrastructure and highly skilled engineering and climate change adaptation. Municipal Health Bureau ensures the management staff. Moreover, many peri-urban areas Source: UN-Water 2010. 64 6. sector–speciFic AdAptive responses Brazil, and western South America (Bates et al. sanitation, flooding can, in turn, lead to pollution 2008, 8). Many cities in arid areas of the world of water with contaminants from human waste box 6.5 samPle oPTions foR ciTy-level have learned to cope with ongoing scarcity, but and debris. aDaPTaTion in WaTeR suPPly anD DemanD others that have long depended on snowmelt, Supply-side: such as those in the Indus Basin and the Andes, „„ Desalination of sea water aDaPTaTion aPPRoaches may also face the threat of drought. Competition „„ Expansion of rainwater storage for water within cities, between urban areas and A primary low or no-regrets adaptation approach „„ Removal of invasive nonnative vegetation agricultural uses, and among regions, only stands that can be taken to strengthen water supply in from riparian areas to increase, if adaptive actions are not taken. cities is to promote and expand sound and trans- „„ Wastewater reuse for watering parks parent water supply administration and sanitation. and cleaning streets, and potentially for Climate change is also expected to result in For example, water utilities can reduce water con- irrigation and drinking water, with higher increased and more frequent flooding because of sumption that does not generate revenue through levels of treatment the disappearance of natural systems that acts stricter administration to cut down on clandestine Demand-side: as temporal sponges or slow releasers (such as connections and unpaid bills (Danilenko 2010, 19) „„ Improvement of water-use efficiency by surrounding wetlands). In the absence of proper (see also Chapter 3 for the example of Phnom recycling water or physical improvements (for example, pipe retrofits) Table 6.3 samPle oPTions foR aDaPTaTion in saniTaTion „„ Promotion of traditional practices for sustainable water use Technology Features Issues „„ Expanded use of economic incentives, Pit latrines Small, adaptable design Flooding poses a particular challenge, so may be inappropriate for dense urban areas with high risks of including metering and pricing to encourage Can be built quickly near existing infrastructure contamination. water conservation (making sure to consider Septic tanks Small-scale sewage treatment system with no Flooding could trigger widespread contamination. the existing price burden on residents of connection to main sewerage pipes informal settlements, who may already be Conventional Formal infrastructure Risk from reduced water availability and flooding of paying higher rates to private water sellers sewerage and combined sewers. in comparison to residents in wealthy areas Dependent on water flow sewage treatment Cost and maintenance requirements. that receive municipal supply) Condominial Small-diameter pipes at shallow depths under Less dependent on water supply to flush waste, „„Awareness raising about water conserva- sewers housing blocks, rather than in the middle of because of gravity transportation tion and reclaimed water (as relevant) the road Construction model tends to incorporate community participation. Sources: Adapted from IPCC 2008; Danilenko 2010; ADB 2006. Source: Howard and others 2010; Bantram 2010; Watson 1995, 15. 65 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities Penh, where the water utility made significant such as anaerobic digestion or incineration, can WATER REUSE In nAMIBIA AnD SInGAPORE improvements in order to reduce water losses be prohibitively high (Tchobanoglous and Kreith In Windhoek, Namibia, direct potable reuse already constitutes the city’s main and improve the reliability of the city’s water 2002). As cities grow and need more land, suit- drinking water supply (Danilenko 2010, 27), after education campaigns gained public acceptance. supply). Box 6.4 describes the financial and health able collection and disposal sites can be difficult In Singapore, with five treatment plants, the NEWater reclaimed water program cobenefits of water and sanitation. to acquire and develop. now meets 30 percent of the country’s water demand, with a projection of serving 50 Many other options can be tailored to local cir- percent of demand by the year 2060 (Government of Singapore 2010). cumstances, in collaboration with utility staff or climaTe change imPacTs technically adept humanitarian organizations. Box In some developing country cities, solid waste 6.5 provides a general sample of options for sup- disposal systems are often inadequate, if they FURThER RESOURCES ply-side and demand-side water adaptation; Table exist at all. Solid waste is frequently dumped Adapting Urban Water Systems to Climate Change—A Handbook for Decision 6.3 profiles several sanitation options. These are and accumulates in canals, waterways, and Makers at the Local Level and associated web pages provide access to climate change adaptation resources and good practice examples for city and utility managers not exhaustive lists. Moreover, in order to analyze areas otherwise intended for water runoff or flood of water supply, wastewater, and storm water systems. The handbook was produced the costs and advantages of these options fully, through collaboration by ICLEI-Europe, the International Water Association (http:// control (Zimmerman and Faris 2010). These condi- many cities would benefit from technical knowl- tions make these cities vulnerable to floods and www.iwahq.org) and UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education (http://www. unesco-ihe.org/) as part of the SWITCH project, a research initiative supported by the edge exchanges with other cities around the contaminated water from moderate rainfall, let European Union and a cross-disciplinary team of 33 partners in 15 countries around world, as well as financial support and expertise the world (ICLEI 2011). alone intense precipitation and potential storm from their respective national governments. surges expected with climate change. Areas of The handbook (http://www.adaptationhandbook.org) provides the following: uncollected waste can spread existing sources of ƒ Specific examples of climate change impacts on urban water infrastructure and environmental pollution and health hazards from water-reliant systems ƒ Case studies of cities that are working to adapt their water systems to climate Solid Waste the materials described above, as well as expand change, such as Durban (South Africa), Hanoi (Vietnam), Infanta and General Nakar Solid waste originates from a variety of sources, breeding grounds for water and vector-borne (the Philippines), Lima (Peru), London (UK), Melbourne (Australia), New York City diseases. Informal settlements near or on top of (United States), Rotterdam (the Netherlands), Semarang (Indonesia), and Toronto with material types that include electronics, (Canada) plastics, metals, glass, human fecal matter, and dumped waste can also experience landslides as ƒ Detailed information on cobenefits of sustainable water management options, hazardous materials that may be toxic, corrosive, a result of flooding and can catch fire as a result of including alternative supplies, demand reduction, biogas production from sludge, radioactive, flammable, or infectious. Solid temperature increases. Table 6.4 describes poten- grey water reuse, green infrastructure (for example, pervious pavements or green tial impacts across the solid waste sector, while waste disposal systems are often logistically roofs), and rainwater harvesting complicated and costly, including an operational Table 6.5 describes a sample of impacts specific Additional resources are available at the SWITCH online training desk at http://www. switchtraining.eu. chain of collection, transfer, and disposal. Capital to types of solid waste infrastructure. costs of technologically advanced treatment, 66 6. sector–speciFic AdAptive responses aDaPTaTion aPPRoaches Table 6.4 PoTenTial climaTe change imPacTs acRoss The soliD WasTe secToR Reducing vulnerability to solid waste-related flood- Climate ing in cities requires improvement in solid waste Variable Potential Change Potential Impacts on Solid Waste Management management practices. One step is to develop Temperature Annual warming Increased risk of combustion at open sites and composting. regular and proactive collection of solid waste from Thawing permafrost Over time, may disrupt drainage and surface water flow around landfill sites. drains, streets, and waterways; this can be taken or soils as a low-cost measure in advance of an anticipated Increase in mean sea Flooding of facilities and basement/underground-level equipment. level storm (Simply Green 2009). Solid waste authorities Floating waste may wash up with high precipitation or storm surges. can also reduce waste-related flooding risks by Precipitation Increased rainfall Saturated soils and decreased stability of slopes and landfill linings (if clay or soil based) at waste management sites. improving landfill siting decisions with informa- Flooding in areas with untreated, dumped waste carries the risk of groundwater tion about geology, groundwater tables, flooding More intense rainfall events contamination. hazards, proximity to surface water, and proximity Disruptions in the removal and transportation of solid waste. to vulnerable populations (UNEP 2009a). Source: Adapted from Zimmerman and Faris 2010. Cities can also reduce vulnerability to health risks through practices that avoid or reduce high Table 6.5 PoTenTial climaTe change imPacTs on soliD WasTe infRasTRucTuRe concentration of pollutants in water after periods Infrastructure/ Climate Potential Potential Impacts on of floods or droughts. In collection and disposal Component Variable Change Waste Management services, cities can increase the use of corrosive- Closed and open Temperature Increase or Altered chemical composition of contaminants below the surface, disposal sites decrease changes in evaporation rates. resistant, lined and lidded storage systems; Precipitation Increase Unexpected leaching of contaminants in surface areas of closed minimize accumulation of waste and informal landfills. disposal; increase the frequency of collection to Marine transfer Sea-level rise Increase Impacts on coastal docking and transfer facilities. remove organic wastes; and minimize the number stations and spatial coverage of waste disposal sites Path or roadside Precipitation Increase or Damage to waste containment facilities or structures. (UN-HABITAT 2011a). In transfer and transport refuse decrease services, cities can change waste management Storm surges Increase Inundation of waste releases contaminants to waterways, pathways, and low-lying areas. routes away from surface water supplies or flood Potential for pools of standing contaminated water that promote plains and ensure accessibility of major routes. water and vector-borne diseases. Source: Adapted from Zimmerman and Faris 2010. 67 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities More broadly, providing broader and better be needed in the solid waste sector independent would be potentially serious for the most coverage of solid waste services throughout a city, of climate change. Many cities (particularly in vulnerable populations: poor urban residents particularly for informal settlements, would be the low-income countries) face a variety of challenges who currently struggle to afford food will be long-term solution. This involves strengthening ex- in addressing solid waste, not least the financing of the first to be affected when prices rise. In isting solid waste operations through improvement ongoing solid waste operations. addition, individuals who do not hold formal of collection, disposal and transfer routes, siting title to their land may not be able to plant of new facilities and waste management stations, supplementary gardens or own livestock and increased efficiency in the transfer and treat- Food Security (Anguelovski 2009), reducing their capacity ment of waste—efforts that would in any case to cope with price shocks. Public discontent Urban areas typically produce very little of their over food price rises can also lead to social own food, leaving urban residents overwhelmingly and political instability. reliant on food supplies imported from distant ru- box 6.6 Dimensions of fooD secuRiTy „„ Women, children, and minority groups ral areas and often even transcontinental shipping. „„ Food availability is the need for sufficient Local food security (see Box 6.6) is often subject may bear the burden of food crises quantity and quality of food to be available in to a range of demographic and economic trends at disproportionately. Women of child-rearing the right place at the right time. age and young children have more complex global, national and local scales, including popu- „„ Food access requires that people have ade- lation growth, changes in consumption patterns nutritional needs and suffer the greatest quate resources and the social right to produce as income levels rise, competition for agricultural health impacts during food shortages. In or purchase suitable foods for a healthy diet. some places, women face cultural, legal, or land, and energy and transportation costs. These „„ Stability of access is achieved when the combined factors can strain food supplies, raise security obstacles that make them depend food supply is uninterrupted. real food prices and make cities vulnerable to on others for food procurement (Dubbeling „„ Food consumption concerns the elements food shortages (Easterling and Aggarwal 2007). and Santandreu 2003; Gabel 2005). Minority or processes surrounding food that allow for groups or displaced populations may also healthy consumption patterns. For example, a lack the social frameworks or market lack of cooking fuel can render meat supplies climaTe change imPacTs organization to secure consistent food stocks. useless, or a lack of clean drinking water may Overall, climate change will lead to insecurity in contaminate fresh produce. Any factor that im- „„Areas of a city with limited transportation food supplies for many cities. proves the ability of a population to consume accessibility, such as informal settlements, their food safely increases food security. „„The future may bring larger and more risk being cut off from food supplies during frequent shocks to food supplies and rises heavy storms, inland flooding, or coastal Sources: FAO 2003; Ruane 2010. in real global food prices. These impacts storm surges. Similarly, areas with limited 68 6. sector–speciFic AdAptive responses connections to a city’s main electrical grid with climate change simply serving as a new entry on agricultural innovation (Juma 2011). Activities may see widespread spoiling of food point or an additional reason for action. can include the following: supplies when electrical supply is interrupted. „„ Establishing an educational exchange with Cities can develop local food governance struc- tures (such as a food policy council), raise aware- regional farmers to raise awareness about aDaPTaTion aPPRoaches food supply among the general public and ness, and build partnerships on food security. City governments do have options for meaningful exploring social reliance on certain foods that Through partnerships with regional farmers and action on food security, despite the fact that food may become scarce or expensive in the future universities, cities can position themselves as production depends so heavily on regional, national, centers of innovation and leaders on food aware- „„Tapping into local and regional expertise and even global conditions, and that agricultural ness. Cities do not necessarily have to create around new technologies and cultivation policies tend to be set at the national level. Cities these partnerships from scratch, but can leverage methods that support the diversification may already see the need to build food security, existing regional networks of institutions focused of agriculture (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Finland 2005) box 6.7 uRban agRiculTuRe in ecuaDoR anD cuba FOOD PlAnnInG In DURBAn, SOUTh AFRICA Two examples of urban agriculture illustrate its benefits as a win-win strategy to develop food security, while To ensure food security for low-income populations, the city of Durban, South also generating cobenefits in other areas: Africa, has initiated field trials of different crops in various locations to simulate future climate projections (Carmin, Roberts, and Anguelovski 2009). The program „„The city of Quito, Ecuador, created a program called AGRUPAR within the metropolitan economic develop- intends to measure not only the yields of the crops, but also the crops’ social ment corporation to aid urban farmers. The program provided the farmers with seeds and training to help acceptability, palatability, and substitutability for traditional crops. improve their agricultural production and commercialization, as well as strengthen their management skills (Anguelovski 2009). „„ Faced with a food crisis in the 1990s, Cuba embarked upon a massive effort to promote urban farming, for FURThER RESOURCES which day-to-day implementation primarily fell to Havana city officials (Gonzales Novo and Murphy 2001). In Havana, city laws were changed so that gardeners could have legal priority for any unused space; citizens The Cities Farming for the Future program supports 21 cities around the world in multistakeholder policy development and action planning on urban agriculture. More could approach the local government to request specific plots. information is available at http://www.ruaf.org. Cities can choose to set aside municipal land for urban agriculture through zoning and regulation, ensuring Food for the Cities is a multidisciplinary initiative of FAO, coordinating direct through these land use policies that urban food production will have a place as the city grows. By locating assistance to cities through a variety of programs, including the Special Programme city-owned plots near poor areas and giving priority over the plots to those most in need, city governments can for Food Security, the FAO’s Decentralized Cooperation Programmes, FAO emergency help to build the resilience of vulnerable populations (Henriques 2009). operations, and TeleFood. More information is available online at ftp://ftp.fao.org/ docrep/fao/012/ak824e/ak824e00.pdf. 69 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities „„ Promoting urban community gardening as a 6.7), and improving food-related infrastructure Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), un- supplementary source of food, a way to raise (for example, emergency storage facilities) can less otherwise noted. public awareness about the complexities of be valuable. Cities can also establish or improve „„ Extreme weather impacts on electricity trans- food production, and a small source of food policies outlining decision-making authority and mission and distribution lines can lead to 1) in times of crisis (Mougeot 2006) communications, as well as food distribution interruption or complete loss of electricity priorities, for use in a time of food crisis. Often City governments can provide social safety nets to supply and 2) voltage fluctuation, which can this can be done with the assistance of regional protect the poor from hunger. If food availability is damage electrical equipment, even without a or national governments. a problem, city governments may have the option complete loss of power. Related disruptions of distributing food stocks from city warehouses or can have consequences for residential and commercial buildings, as well as important external donors. In the event that food access has been compromised due to a sudden jump in prices, Energy city infrastructure and services that rely such financial programs as food subsidies or Urban prosperity and quality of life depend in large on electricity, such as health and police direct aid may be necessary. Targeted direct cash part on the services of the energy sector to support facilities, ground and air transportation, transfers may be the fastest way to help popula- the energy needs of households, businesses, trans- wastewater treatment, financial institutions, tions with very limited resources (Brahmbhatt and portation, health care, water management, and and telecommunications. Christiaensen 2008). Food-for-work requirements food systems. These needs include lighting, heat- „„ Extreme heat can increase demand for cool- may be helpful to garner broad political support ing, and cooling in both residential and commercial ing in all occupied buildings, putting even for this type of initiative. Finally, city governments buildings and fuel for transportation and industry more pressure on local electricity supply. can also consider strategies to help residents of (EIA 2010). Many cities currently import energy Energy disruptions in these circumstances, informal settlements develop additional sources from distant locations, and city governments often when electricity or air conditioning is not of food (for example, community gardens and in- do not have direct control over energy supplies. available, can also pose health risks and dividual livestock), even if they do not hold formal even threat of death for elderly, disabled, title to their land. climaTe change imPacTs and hospitalized individuals (Klineberg 2002). See section on public health issues for more Cities can invest in supplementary food sup- Extreme weather events and acute temperatures information. plies and storage facilities in coordination with can impact energy reliability for city users. The information below is drawn primarily from Ebinger „„ Changes in wind intensity, storms, landslides, emergency response plans to prepare for cases of food shortage. The implementation of mate- and Vergara’s 2011 report for the Energy Sector and erosion can affect pipelines and other rial strategies, such as urban agriculture (see Box transportation infrastructure used for fuel 70 6. sector–speciFic AdAptive responses transport to cities (Cointreau 2010). Offshore also the discussion of agriculture in Food and local renewable energy can buffer the effects oil and gas infrastructure, for example, Security section of Chapter 6). Wind and of interruptions in transmission. At the same includes pipelines and fixed platforms that wave energy generation depend on climate time, these investments can also yield multiple are inherently vulnerable to intense storms variables, such as wind speed, energy potential benefits: financial savings, job creation, at sea (UNEP, IISD, UNITAR 2009). Damage density of wind, atmospheric motion, and and business growth; reduced greenhouse gas to these facilities can drive up global and water vapor content. The impacts of climate emissions and improvements in local air quality; regional energy prices. Inundation of roads change on these areas are still being studied. and reduced dependence on imported fossil fuels from flooding can also create barriers to through diversified local energy production (UN- fuel transportation, potentially leading to HABITAT 2011b). aDaPTaTion aPPRoaches increased prices and localized reduction in fuel supply. Broadly speaking, a sustainable energy sys- City governments can work with energy utilities tem—including energy efficiency, low-carbon and emergency response officials to conduct spe- Energy production and operations may be vulner- urban development strategies, and renewable cific vulnerability assessments, create or enhance able to even small shifts in climate. energy sources—is an important ingredient of emergency warning systems, revisit planning time city resilience. Developing these approaches at frames, and adjust design standards to reflect cli- „„ Hydropower generation is especially the city level, especially in the area of diversified mate impacts on the energy sector (UNEP 2009b; vulnerable to small climate changes because and distributed renewable energy, may be quicker City of Chicago 2001). In planning for potential of its direct dependence on hydrological and more effective at building local energy secu- energy disruptions, cities and other stakeholders factors, including precipitation, snowpack, rity than waiting for large-scale energy solutions. can consider such factors as the availability of and the volume and timing of stream flows. These approaches can also yield numerous cobe- Changes in climate can affect thermal and nefits directly for the city and prepare the city for nuclear power plant generation cycles, as a future in which greenhouse gas emissions and FURThER RESOURCES efficiencies and water needs for heating and fossil fuel energy may be limited by law. The Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), through the Energy cooling are designed for particular ambient Efficient Cities Initiative (EECI), offers energy planning support to city officials. The conditions, including temperature, pressure, Energy efficiency, conservation, and renewable Tool for Rapid Assessment of City Energy (TRACE) recommends cost-effective and humidity. energy investments serve as “win-win� adapta- opportunities for energy savings in transportation, buildings, water and waste water, public lighting, solid waste management, and power and heating systems. TRACE „„Climate change may also affect emerging en- tion strategies. Conservation and efficiency is currently being deployed in the cities of Gazientep (Turkey), Da Nang (Vietnam), ergy technologies. Biomass and biofuels may programs can reduce peak electricity demand and Quezon City and Cebu (the Philippines), and Surabaya (Indonesia). More information about TRACE is available online at: http://www.esmap.org/esmap/node/1143. be affected by potentially lower crop yields limit the risk of blackouts, while developing dis- Source: World Bank 2011. associated with changing temperatures (see tributed energy systems involving cogeneration 71 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities backup power, the length of time before serious „„ River basin management can also be Switzerland: WHO. www.who.int/water_sanita- consequences of energy disruption are felt, the essential to protecting hydropower potential. tion_health/publications/9789241598422_cdrom/ specific nature of consequences from interrupted Although city officials may not directly control en/index.html. energy supply, and the demographics of those hydropower generation, knowledge of water Barrios, Salvadora, Luisito Bertinelli and Eric Strobl. affected. resource management issues can help ensure 2006. “Climatic Change and Rural–urban Migration: that plans for hydropower effectively and The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa.� Journal of Urban Energy sector adaptation can also involve city equitably balance competing citywide and Economics. 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Since strategies to reduce vulnerability and build adaptive capacity commonly involve basic service provision, cities can seek financial resources from a wide array of local, national, and international sources, both public and private. For climate- specific international funding, cities can benefit from pursuing projects that support a joint mitiga- tion and adaptation agenda, but these funds are limited and can be expected to meet only a portion of cities’ total financing needs. This chapter provides an overview of the costs of adaptation, the existing options for cities to fi- nance adaptation, and ways to create an enabling photo: Kamira / Shutterstock Images 77 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities financial environment for adaptation. It also offers to help create a better understanding of the costs climate variability—that countries and cities may examples of effective financing approaches in and benefits of alternative courses of action. face. It also does not account for costs related to cities that are relevant for adaptation. nonclimate disaster risks, such as earthquakes At the global level, a 2010 World Bank report on and tsunamis, which represented the majority of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change costs in a World Bank study of three North African The Costs of Adaptation (EACC) estimated the annual global costs of ad- aptation for the period 2010–50 to range between coastal cities (see Box 3.3). Climate change adaptation will add to financial $71.2 billion and $81.5 billion, depending on the Naturally, the scale of adaptation finance needs burdens already weighing on cities in developing future climate scenario selected. This result is for a city depends on the city’s particular circum- countries. In any given city, the costs incurred in somewhat higher than earlier UNFCCC estimates stances that drive the nature of specific adapta- adapting to changes in climate will depend on from 2007. Based on the sectoral breakdowns, tion activities. City-level adaptation activities that that city’s particular circumstances—the specific more than 80 percent of these costs would be can incur incremental costs include the following adaptation actions pursued in response to climate in sectors related to urban areas (see Table 7.1 (adapted from World Bank 2010b): impacts experienced. In all cases, the costs of ad- below). This estimate does not include costs as- „„Assessments of vulnerability, risk, and aptation can be compared to the costs of inaction, sociated with addressing any existing “adaptation adaptive capacity deficit�—a lack of capacity to cope with current „„ Planning and related community engagement Table 7.1 annual aDaPTaTion cosT esTimaTes fRom unfccc anD eacc, by secToR, in billions of DollaRs „„ Early warning systems and associated public EACC Study Scenario education Sector UNFCCC (2007) NCAR (wettest) CSIRO (driest) „„ Modification to the proposed design of an Infrastructure 2-41 27.5 13 investment, resulting in increased construc- Coastal Zones 5 28.5 27.6 tion expenses Water Supply and Flood Protection 9 14.4 19.7 „„Additional service provision (for example, Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries 7 2.6 2.5 emergency flood management) Human Health 5 2 1.5 „„ Increased maintenance and repair costs Extreme Weather Events — 6.7 6.4 associated with adaptation Total 28-67 81.5 71.2 „„ Conferences, workshops, and trainings for Note: NCAR is The National Centre for Atmospheric Research, and CSIRO is the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Climate. city staff on adaptation Sources: UNFCCC 2007; World Bank 2010a (The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change study team). 78 7. Financing adaptation in cities „„ Measurement, reporting, and verification of Cities have often found it difficult to access avail- adaptation data over time Adaptation Finance able adaptation funding, as well as climate finance Calculating the projected costs and benefits of a Options for Cities more broadly. The reasons for this include difficul- ties in accessing information on climate finance specific adaptation activity is a key aspect of the Dedicated funding for adaptation has begun to and limited capacity and experience at the city city planning process prior to seeking financing flow only recently, at about $1 billion per year level to deal with some of its complexities. Such options. Chapter 4 provides guidance on assess- (World Bank 2010d). New sources of funding, initiatives as the Climate Finance Options website ing the costs and benefits of adaptation as part such as the Green Climate Fund first introduced (mentioned above) and capacity building programs of a prioritization process, but cities will need at UNFCCC COP-15 in Copenhagen, continue to be have been developed in response to these needs. more precise calculations when seeking financ- discussed. It remains unclear, however, how funds ing. At the city level, there is as yet no common such as this will operate. There is also uncertainty Cities also find that the general structure and de- established method of quantifying climate risks surrounding the overall commitment to provide sign of climate finance mechanisms are oriented and, therefore, adaptation benefits. This situation $100 billion per year for climate change by 2020, towards the national level. Most dedicated global poses a particular challenge for cities when secur- and what proportion of this total will be available funding for adaptation currently flows through na- ing concessional resources. Box 7.1 summarizes for adaptation. tional channels, primarily based on priorities set recent estimates that have been made for several in nationally-adopted climate frameworks, such coastal megacities in Asia. as National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) (UNFCCCa 2011). In order for cities to access more funding, they have to be recognized box 7.1 cosTs of climaTe change imPacTs in asian coasTal megaciTies as important potential partners and implementers Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities: A Synthesis Report—a two-year collaborative study of adaptation projects. This has led groups of by the Asian Development Bank, the Japan International Cooperation Agency, and the World Bank—studied cities and local government networks to advocate the vulnerability of four Asian coastal cities to the impacts of climate change. If current climate trends continue, flooding in Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, and Manila is likely to occur more frequently by 2050. Costs from major flood events are estimated to run into billions of dollars, depending on the city and climate change scenario FURThER RESOURCES considered, with urban poor populations likely to be especially hard hit. The additional damage from climate Cities may also find it valuable to research the costs that adaptation projects have change is estimated to be in the range of 2 to 6 percent of regional gross domestic product (GDP). In Metro incurred around the world. Climate Finance Options (http://www.climatefinanceop- Manila, without infrastructure improvements, under a high-climate-change scenario a 100-year return period tions.org), an informational website sponsored by the World Bank and UNDP, and the Adaptation Learning Mechanism website (http://www.adaptationlearning.net), both flood could cause aggregate damages of up to 24 percent of regional GDP. contain project-level information that may be useful for this purpose (Climate Finance Reproduced from World Bank 2010c. Also cited in World Bank 2010b. Options 2011; Adaptation Learning Mechanism 2011). 79 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities for greater recognition and funding for cities and and operating budget, will be essential. Alternative Own-source revenue—funds generated by a local governments in international climate change approaches, such as reframing climate change ad- government agency from service payments, taxes, frameworks. aptation as resilience upgrades (Brugmann 2011), fees, and other receipts—can be used to fund can also be pursued (see Box 7.2). adaptation investments, such as improvements in However, even if adaptation funding increases infrastructure. This source depends on a number with dedicated programs for cities, international This section provides an overview of three broad of factors specific to a given city, including its funding sources will still likely be insufficient to categories of funding that cities can consider for legal and institutional authority to raise revenues, cover all the adaptation needs of cities. Developing adaptation: municipal and national finance; grant the functions that city agencies perform, and pub- competency in securing funds for local-level resources and concessional finance from multi- lic sentiment about taxation (UN-HABITAT 2009). adaptation is, therefore, critical for city officials lateral and bilateral agencies; and market-based (Brugmann 2011). Various funding sources, such opportunities. Although this section does not Taxes, fees, and charges are several examples as general funding for sustainable development, provide an exhaustive description of the complex of own-source revenue. These can be designed private sector sources, and a city’s own investment array of climate funding opportunities currently with specific policy objectives in mind. Table 7.2 available, more detailed information can be found summarizes a number of these forms that have at the Climate Finance Options website (http:// potential climate change adaptation benefits in box 7.2 sTRaTegic oPTions To leveRage www.climatefinanceoptions.org). urban land use and buildings. Taxes, especially PRivaTe caPiTal foR aDaPTaTion in ciTies property taxes, are a potentially powerful tool. Fees and charges can be ideal for funding local A recent white paper entitled “Financing the municiPal anD naTional finance Resilient City� reframes the adaptation challenge services for which specific beneficiaries can be in terms of a performance metric for cities. Given Because of their limited financial resources, cit- identified and nonpayers excluded. User fees are the large amounts of capital that the private ies often have to make difficult choices among particularly effective when they recover full costs sector is investing in local infrastructure, the competing priorities, and climate change adapta- and are paid according to individual or household paper outlines a framework for integrating tion may not initially rise to the top of the list of use, as these give users incentives for more ef- climate change and other risk reduction actions priorities. As described in prior chapters, however, ficient use of resources. into broader private sector and market-driven cities can often build resilience to climate change instruments in cities. Additionally, it identifies impacts by investing in already-needed basic Bonds can be issued to finance long-term invest- less expensive planning and assessment actions, while using market-based investments to pay for services and infrastructure. Seen in that light, ments or current expenditure related to adaptation. more expensive infrastructure upgrades. adaptation actions would be strong candidates Bonds have some advantages compared to loans, for financing from municipal sources. with longer maturities, lower interest rates (de- Source: Brugmann 2011. pending on the credit rating of the borrower), and 80 7. Financing adaptation in cities simplified collateral requirements. Disadvantages „„ Global Environment Facility (GEF) mulTilaTeRal anD bilaTeRal finance include a higher capacity requirement at the bor- (http://www.thegef.org/gef/) and the GEF In general, both multilateral and bilateral sources rower level for preparing and repaying the bonds. Small Grants Programme (SGP) are designed for implementation of national strat- (http://sgp.undp.org/) national financing for cities varies according egies and programs (World Bank 2010b). Access „„ Climate Investment Funds (CIFs) to the specific circumstances in a given country. to these may be routed through national govern- Transfers to local governments may include funds ments, requiring coordination and consultation (http://www.climateinvestmentfunds.org/ that flow from national agencies of transporta- between national and subnational authorities. cif/), including the Strategic Climate Fund tion, environment, health, and disaster for adapta- These sources can be used to fund activities (SCF), which supports the Pilot Program for tion activities and investments. In many countries, ranging from capacity building and technical as- Climate Resilience (PPCR – see Box 7.3) these are most likely to be general sources of sistance, to municipal infrastructure. Examples of „„ Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) and funding (for example, disaster risk reduction or sources include the following: Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) water resource planning) that a city can opt to use (http://www.unfccc.int) in support of adaptation goals. box 7.3 sTRaTegic PRogRam foR climaTe Resilience in banglaDesh Located between the Himalayas and the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh is prone to floods, torrential rains, erosion, Table 7.2 lanD use anD builDing Taxes, fees, anD chaRges RelaTeD To aDaPTaTion and cyclones. It is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and storm surges with its densely populated, low-lying coastal zones. After a cyclone killed 140,000 people in 1991, the government took action to improve resilience Taxes Property taxes can provide incentives for and emergency preparedness. In 2005, it developed a NAPA, which was updated in 2009, soon followed by the compact and resilient cities, for example, promoting dwelling types that are denser Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP). and away from vulnerable areas. A special area tax could be applied on Funding from the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) has supported implementation of the BCCSAP, vulnerable areas, or a set of cascading specifically to promote climate-resilient agriculture and food security, improve coastal embankments and af- taxes could be implemented that gradually forestation, and fortify water supplies and infrastructure in 12 vulnerable coastal communities. Decentralized increases with proximity to vulnerable areas, such as a floodplain. government structures and community groups will play a pivotal role in ensuring that programs are flexible and adapted to local needs. As of late 2010, Bangladesh has proposed a $286 million budget for PPCR to fund water Fees and Development charges could be used to Charges counter urban sprawl. In general, area- supply, sanitation, and infrastructure improvements to build adaptive capacity in the coastal communities, as specific charges could give developers well as a $400,000 feasibility study of climate resilient housing options in the coastal region. Private sector incentives to develop compactly and in less engagement will be critical to enable the program to continue independently of PPCR. vulnerable areas. Source: Authors, adapted from Kamal-Chaoui and Robert Sources: CIF 2010; Ministry of Environment and Forest and Ministry of Finance 2010; PPCR 2010. 2009. 81 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities „„Adaptation Fund (AF) Salient features of these sources are summarized maRkeT-baseD financing (http://www.adaptation-fund.org/) in Table 7.3. The World Bank’s issues brief on Market-based financing offers significant op- Climate Finance in the Urban Context is also a „„ Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and portunities for investments in cities, including for valuable resource for more information, available Recovery (GFDRR) adaptation. This section describes some of these online at: http://wbi.worldbank.org/wbi/Data/ (http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/) instruments, which often involve the private sec- wbi/wbicms/files/drupal-acquia/wbi/578590revis „„ Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs— tor. The private sector will be an important source ed0101Public10DCFIB0141A.pdf. see, for example, Box 7.4) of adaptation funding for both private assets and public infrastructure, as observed in the World „„The Millennium Development Goal Development Report 2010. City engagement with Achievement Fund the private sector on adaptation could involve the following: box 7.4 WaTeR anD seWeRage managemenT in yeRevan, aRmenia „„ Privately-held infrastructure that provides Prior to the year 2000, the Yerevan Water and Sewerage Enterprise (YWSE) was in poor financial health with a public services (for example, transportation, very dilapidated system. Collections only reached 20 percent, and the utility could not cover its operations and electric power networks, water systems, and maintenance costs. The infrastructure, inherited from the Soviet era, was in very poor condition, with outdated solid waste) energy-intensive pumps that frequently broke down and a leaky distribution network with an estimated 72 „„ Private properties that can be leveraged percent water loss. As a result, service was of very poor quality. to improve adaptive capacity (for example, In response, the government of Armenia solicited private sector expertise. In 2000, YWSE entered into a five-year downtown buildings that could be renovated performance-based management contract with private operator Acea Spa Utility (Acea). Over the course of the with green roofs to minimize the urban heat contract, Acea invested in infrastructure improvements that led to the following: a substantial increase in the island effect) duration of water supply from 6 to 18 hours per day; improvement of collection rates from 20 to 80 percent (or over 100 percent including arrears); and a reduction of electricity consumption by 30 percent, resulting in over „„ Leverage of private finance to fund a range of $4.8 million in annual savings. dedicated adaptation investments, whether The entire project cost was over $28.9 million for capital investments, management contract fees, and operator or not a private company has a direct interest bonuses, including over $3.4 million to Acea for managing YWSE for five years, and over $1.4 million in a in the project performance-based bonus for achieving most of the performance targets. The capital investment fund and man- agement contract were financed in part through a $30.87 million investment from the World Bank. Source: ESMAP 2011. 82 7. Financing adaptation in cities Table 7.3 mulTilaTeRal anD bilaTeRal aDaPTaTion financing souRces Global Private Sector Millennium Environment Pilot Least Global Facility Arms of Development Global Facility Programme Developed for Disaster Multilateral Multilateral Goal Environment Small Grants for Climate Countries Special Climate Adaptation Risk Reduction Development Development Achievement Facility Programme Resilience Fund Change Fund Fund (Track 2) Banks Banks Fund FOCUS AREA Mitigation * * * * * * Adaptation * * * * * * * * * * Sustainable Development * * * * Disaster Risk Reduction * * * TYPE OF ACTIVITY FUNDED (Restrictions, if any) Capacity Building * * * * * * * * Technical Assistance * * * * * * * * * * Investment * * (Pilots) * * * (Institutional) * * (Post- disaster) * * * TYPE OF FUNDING Grant * * * * * * * * * * Loan * * * Guarantee * FUNDING AMOUNT PER PROjECT Up to several Up to $50,000 Up to $1.5 million Average Average Several million Several hundred Very broad range Very broad range, Several million; million for preparation. $3.6 million $4.2 million thousand in of millions to up to several in the range of Track 2. billions. hundred million. $4-8 million. In the range of $100 million for program. ELIGIBLE INSTITUTIONS (Eligible Countries) Community-based * All eligible with Organizations emphasis on All eligible in Nongovernmental most vulnerable All eligible; * the 57 MDG Organizations developing national countries; countries; government national Private Sector national * approval required. government Local Government government * approval required. approval National Government * * (LDCs) * (Most vulnerable required. *(Most vulnerable * DCs) DCs) Sources: GEF 2011; UNDP 2011; CIF 2011; UNFCCC 2011; Adaptation Fund 2011; GFDRR 2011; World Bank 2010b; MDG 2011. 83 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities South African cities based on establishing a development, thus contributing to building Carbon Finance framework for carbon finance. resilience (see Box 7.5). Cities that deal with waste management, energy „„Amman has partnered with the World Bank’s efficiency, and access to energy can be beneficia- Further information can be found at http:// ries of the carbon market. Many cities are explor- Carbon Partnership Facility (CPF) on that wbcarbonfinance.org. ing ways to use carbon finance to leverage private city’s low-carbon development strategy and and public funding. For example: is now a pilot for the Citywide Approach to Carbon Finance (see also World Bank 2010c). Insurance „„The South Africa City Network is developing „„In Sao Paulo, the revenues from carbon fi- Insurance and other risk management instruments a program of energy projects in different nance have been used to support community serve important functions for cities and countries when disasters strike, covering the risks of high- severity, low-frequency events for individuals, public institutions, and private entities. However, box 7.5 sao Paulo lanDfill gas PRojecT The Bandeirantes landfill gas recovery facility in São Paulo transforms biogas into a cleaner source of energy and also serves as a source of revenue for community upgrades in nearby neighborhoods. The collected biogas is sold box 7.6 mulTicaT mexico as fuel to the Bandeirantes Thermoelectric power plant, a clean energy power plant, and the sale of carbon credits In 2006, the Mexican government insured its approved under the CDM have funded parks designed to restore vegetation and control floods, among many other catastrophe reserve fund, the Fondo de Desastres amenities. At the same time, the project has improved local air quality, mitigated climate change through the Naturales (FONDEN), against natural disasters reduction of methane emissions, supplied 400,000 inhabitants with energy, and created more than 30 local jobs. with a mix of reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. As a public-private partnership, the landfill gas recovery facility is operated by Biogás, a private company con- The resulting contract was linked to a parametric tracted by the city of São Paulo through a bidding process that was led by the Brazilian government. Biogás took trigger in terms of magnitude and depth of seismic- responsibility for the project’s financing and risks, as well as the legal procedures that involved CDM approval. ity for the three-year period 2007–09. In 2008, the Biogás invested R$12 million in the installation of the gas capture system in 2003, along with R$45 million in the Mexican government spent $1.2 billion from the same year by Unibanco, a private Brazilian bank. reserve fund to cover rescue and rebuilding opera- tions after Hurricanes Stan and Wilma. The govern- According to the concession agreement, 100 percent of the energy and 50 percent of the carbon credits produced ment then decided to work with the World Bank by the landfills belong to Biogás to be traded in the market, while the city of São Paulo has the right to sell the on a new catastrophe bond. As a result, Mexico balance of the carbon credits. The city of São Paulo received €13,096,890 in 2007 through the auction of certified successfully established the MultiCat Mexico 2009, emissions reductions (CERs) generated between December 2003 and December 2006. with the World Bank acting as arranger. Source: ICLEI 2009. Source: World Bank 2009. 84 7. Financing adaptation in cities private sector insurance is not always robust in risk of a government failing to perform its con- Partnership (PPP) contracts can vary broadly from developing countries and may not be accessible tractual obligations. Box 7.7 describes a project a concession to a service contract, but the public to the poorest communities. in Colombia in which a company sought a partial sector retains ultimate accountability to the user credit guarantee from the IFC in order to issue a for providing the service. The main benefit of Dedicated insurance can help to ensure access to longer-term bond. immediate liquidity to finance emergency relief and reconstruction operations. For example, the box 7.8 sToRmWaTeR managemenT anD World Bank has developed a catastrophe bond Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) RoaD Tunnel (smaRT), kuala lumPuR, issuance platform, called the MultiCat program, Many governments are turning to the private malaysia which allows developing country governments sector to design, build, finance, and operate Recurring floods and ongoing traffic congestion to use a standard framework to buy parametric public infrastructure facilities, while receiving have had an adverse economic impact on Kuala insurance on affordable terms (World Bank 2009; a financial return through fees charged to users Lumpur’s central business district. The city has GFDRR 2011b). Box 7.6 describes the MultiCat or payment from the public sector. Public Private addressed both issues with a dual-purpose tunnel that carries both vehicular traffic and storm water, instrument developed for Mexico. A pool of cities under normal use. During episodes of very heavy could also use a similar instrument, reducing the rainfall, usually occurring a few times a year, the average risk for investors and considerably reduc- box 7.7 bonD anD guaRanTee combineD To part of the tunnel that normally carries vehicular ing insurance costs through diversification. finance WaTeR suPPly traffic can also be used to channel additional In Barranquilla, Colombia, the company Sociedad storm water. Acueducto extended water and sewerage ser- Guarantees A joint venture of Malaysian Mining Corporation vices to the southwest area of the city, connecting Guarantees are used to improve investor (MMC) Berhad and Gamuda Berhad served as 350,000 low-income inhabitants to the network. the contractor for the tunnel. Gamuda proposed confidence in cases of risk (for example, the In order to make this investment, the company a public–private funding initiative for the $514 lack of a track record of bond issuance). Credit decided to issue a long-term, local currency bond million project, with government financing of $342 enhancements provided by MDBs can help cit- of $63 million to refinance its debt. To allow bond million and the remaining $163 million funded by maturity of up to ten years in the local capital ies access credit at more affordable terms than Gamuda and MMC. The joint venture operates market, the company sought credit enhancement would otherwise be available. Through a partial the project under a 40-year concession, collecting through the IFC in the form of a partial credit credit guarantee, the guarantor shares the risk a toll of RM2 (66 U.S. cents) from the 30,000 guarantee for up to a maximum of 25 percent of of debt service default with lenders on some vehicles that use the tunnel daily. the principal amount. predetermined basis. This tool can be used to Source: Authors; RoadTraffic-Technology.com 2011; Source: IFC website 2011. Ingenia 2007. protect private lenders and investors against the 85 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities a PPP is to mobilize private capital, while also as highways. Organizations, such as the Public- which has improved traffic flow, while increasing improving service quality and the management of Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF), can the city’s resilience to heavy rainfall events. the facility. PPPs are now broadly used for public facilitate these arrangements. Box 7.8 describes services, such as public transport or water supply, an example of a PPP in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, as well as for infrastructure management, such Creating an Enabling Financial Environment for Table 7.4 measuRes To cReaTe an enabling financial enviRonmenT foR aDaPTaTion Adaptation Category of Both national and local governments can help to Government Action Purpose Examples create an environment that enables cities, the pri- Assessment, mea- Demonstrate a commitment to evidence-based Publication of vulnerability, risk, or adaptive vate sector, and other stakeholders to undertake surement, reporting, and transparent adaptation investment. capacity assessments. and verification adaptation actions. Some measures that can be Demonstrate the logic of public investments and Tracking and public reporting of adaptation attract additional funding. performance indicators on a city’s website. pursued in this regard are described in Table 7.4. Regulation, plans, Raise and maintain confidence that the operating Sound, consistent and transparent land use and policies environment of a given sector (for example, land administration. use) will be consistent. Climate-smart policies to influence private References Demonstrate a commitment to climate change sector activity, ranging from stricter land use adaptation and an ability to deliver service administration to guide development away from Adaptation Fund. Website accessed May 28, 2011. effectively. vulnerable floodplain lands, to positive incentives http://www.adaptation-fund.org/. to promote green infrastructure among building Develop a culture of proactive leadership and and infrastructure developers. Adaptation Learning Mechanism. Website accessed on innovation. May 28, 2011. http://www.adaptationlearning.net Fiscal incentives Cover the incremental costs of adaptation (for Tax benefits, subsidies, property taxes example, building a stronger foundation for a differentiated by risk, differentiated insurance Brugmann, Jeb. 2011. “Financing the Resilient City.� facility already under construction). premiums, subsidized loans. White Paper. Washington, DC: ICLEI. Encourage investments primarily dedicated to Provision of cash payments for home renovations adaptation (for example, increasing the elevation that reduce vulnerability can motivate some Climate Finance Options. Website accessed on May 28, of existing buildings in zones exposed to frequent homeowners, especially if viewed as a time- 2011. http://www.climatefinanceoptions.org/cfo/ flooding). limited opportunity. index.php Inducement prizes Promote excellence and leadership by example Green building ratings. among private sector actors. Climate Investment Funds. 2010. Annual Report and public recognition Corporate sustainability awards. of corporate 2010. Washington, DC: Climate Investment responsibility Funds. http://www.climateinvestmentfunds. Source: World Bank 2010e and Authors. org/cif/sites/climateinvestmentfunds.org/files/ 86 7. Financing adaptation in cities CIF_annual_report_conference_edition_up- accessed May 28, 2011. http://www.ifc.org/ifcext/ World Bank. 2009a. “World Bank Launches ‘MultiCat load_121310.pdf. treasury.nsf/AttachmentsByTitle/SF_TripleA/$FILE/ Program.’� Website accessed on May 28, 2011. _____. 2011. Website accessed May 28, 2011. http:// Triple+A.pdf. http://go.worldbank.org/XW31QJSXQ0. www.climateinvestmentfunds.org/cif/ _____. Website accessed May 28, 2011. http:// _____. 2009b. “Insuring against Natural Disaster ESMAP. 2011. “Good Practices in City Energy Efficiency. www.ifc.org/ifcext/treasury.nsf/Content/ Risk: MultiCat Program.� IBRD Financial Yerevan, Armenia —Water and Sewerage PartialCreditGuarantee Solutions. Website fact sheet accessed May 28, Management Contract.� Washington, DC: ESMAP. Ingenia. 2007. “A Dual Purpose Tunnel.� Website 2011. http://treasury.worldbank.org/bdm/pdf/ http://www.esmap.org/esmap/sites/esmap.org/ accessed May 28, 2011. http://www.ingenia.org. Handouts_Finance/Financial_Solution_MultiCat. files/CS_EECI_Yemen_Water_Case_Study.pdf uk/ingenia/issues/issue30/darby.pdf. pdf. GEF. 2010. Progress Report on the Least Developed Kamal-Chaoui, L., and A. Robert, eds. 2009. _____. 2010a. The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Countries Fund (LDCF) and the Special Climate “Competitive Cities and Climate Change.� OECD Change. http://climatechange.worldbank.org/ Change Fund (SCCF). Washington, DC: GEF. http:// Regional Development Working Papers N° 2. Paris: climatechange/content/economics-adaptation- www.thegef.org/gef/node/3728. OECD. climate-change-study-homepage. Washington, DC: World Bank. _____. 2011. Website accessed on May 29, 2011. Millennium Development Goal Achievement Fund. http://www.thegef.org/gef/ Website accessed May 28, 2011. http://www. _____. 2010b. Issues Brief #4, “Climate Finance in mdgfund.org/ the Urban Context. Washington, DC: World Bank. GFDRR. 2011a. Website accessed May 28, 2011. http:// http://wbi.worldbank.org/wbi/Data/wbi/wbicms/ www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/ Ministry of Environment and Forest and Ministry of files/drupal-acquia/wbi/578590revised0101Public1 _____. 2011b. “Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Finance. 2010. “Strategic Program for Climate 0DCFIB0141A.pdf Product Note.� Washington, DC: World Bank Resilience of Bangladesh.“ http://www. climateinvestmentfunds.org/cif/sites/climate- _____. 2010c. Climate Risks and Adaptation in http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/sites/gfdrr.org/files/ investmentfunds.org/files/PPCR_Bangladesh_ Asian Coastal Megacities: A Synthesis Report. documents/DRFI_MultiCatProgram_Jan11.pdf Presentation-10_Mar_0.pdf Washington, DC: World Bank. ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability. 2009. RoadTraffic-Technology.com. 2011. “The website for _____. 2010d. World Development Report 2010. São Paulo, Brazil. Turning Pollution into Profit: the the road traffic industry.� http://www.roadtraffic- Washington, DC: The World Bank. Bandeirantes Landfill Gas to Energy Project. Bonn: ICLEI.-Local Governments for Sustainability. http:// technology.com/. _____. 2010e. Issues Brief #2 Making the Most of www.iclei.org/fileadmin/user_upload/documents/ _____. Website accessed May 28, 2011. http://www. Public Finance for Climate Action. The World Global/case_studies/ICLEI_Case_Study_Sao_ roadtraffic-technology.com/projects/smart/. Bank Group at Work. Washington, DC: World Paulo_107_July_2009.pdf. Bank. http://climatechange.worldbank.org/ Strategic Program for Climate Resilience of Bangladesh, climatechange/sites/default/files/documents/ IFC. 2011. “Sociedad Acueducto, Alcantarillado y Aseo Presentation of the Ministry of Environment, PPCR DCFIB%20%232-web.pdf de Barranquilla.� Structured Finance website Pilot Countries Meeting. November 12, 2010. 87 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities _____. 2011. “Carbon Finance Unit.� Website accessed May 28, 2011. http://wbcarbonfinance.org UNDP. Website on Global Environment Facility Small Grants Programme accessed May 28, 2011. http:// sgp.undp.org/. UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). 2007. Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in Developing Countries. Bonn, Germany: UNFCCC. _____. 2011a. “National Adaptation Programmes of Action.� Website. http:ccc.int/national_reports/ napa/items/2719.php. Accessed on May 28, 2011. _____. 2011b. Website accessed May 28, 2011. http:// www.unfccc.int. UN-HABITAT. 2009. “Guide to Municipal Finance.� Nairobi: UN-HABITAT. http://www.unhabitat.org/ pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=2808. 88 8. ConClusion 8. Conclusion This guide fulfills several functions for cities embarking on a climate change adaptation effort. It has described an array of adaptation tools and resources that cities in developing countries can employ in understanding and developing responses to climate change impacts, while reinforcing the need to build on existing bodies of work in the field of disaster risk reduction. It has also provided current information on the functions and features of adaptation tools, as well as point- ers to further sources of information for those wishing to explore these topics in greater detail. In addition, this guide has attempted to commu- nicate this information in a way that is useful and practical to city officials in developing countries, in light of particular needs and capacity constraints. Given the concerns facing these cities, the guide has emphasized the unique impacts of climate change on informal settlements, the urban poor, and other vulnerable groups. photo: Mark VanOvermeire / iStockPhoto.com 89 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities Specifically, the preceding chapters of this guide Cities can consider these items as a checklist or have provided information on the following: roadmap to support their adaptation processes, but it is important to note that adaptation will not „„Aspects of potential climate change impacts be complete, even when all of these tasks have on cities been undertaken. Adaptation is not a one-time ef- „„The basic concepts of adaptation fort, but an ongoing cycle of preparation, response, and evolution, in this way similar to disaster risk „„ Reasons for cities to start adapting now reduction and sustainable development. Moreover, „„ Potential partners for adaptation in cities adaptation is a dynamic process that should be „„Tools to assess vulnerability, risk, and updated periodically based on measurement, adaptive capacity in cities evaluation, and learning. Given that this is a rapidly evolving field, the Urban Development Unit „„ Climate-smart plans and policies for cities of the World Bank will provide updates to this „„ Setting adaptation performance indicators information at http://www.worldbank.org/urban. and evaluating proposed courses of action Over time, the strongest adaptation efforts will „„The unique vulnerabilities of the urban poor, be marked by long-term commitment on the part residents of informal settlements, and other of city leaders and officials to pursue measurable groups, as well as ways to help them adapt results that yield benefits not only for adaptation „„ Illustrations of sector-specific impacts and but also for sustainable development, disaster adaptation strategies risk reduction, and poverty alleviation. Cities that „„ Opportunities for financing adaptation in integrate adaptation with these existing priorities cities will be well positioned to thrive in the new era of climate change. 90 APPENDIX Appendix: The Basics of Climate Change Science The Earth’s temperature has increased over phenomena or longer-term trends (NCAR 2011). what is called the “greenhouse effect� (see the last century, which the international Both natural phenomena and human-induced Figure A.1). These “greenhouse gases,� such as scientific community attributes to greenhouse changes in the atmosphere can change the water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous gas emissions generated by human activities climate of the planet (IPCC 2007a). oxide, are an important part of the atmosphere, (IPCC 2007a). There is now scientific consensus because they keep Earth from being too cold for that these emissions and related temperature In the past several decades, scientists across the life (Dessler and Parson 2006). increase have led to changes in global and world have observed global changes that they regional climate patterns, which will have a attribute to human causes (IPCC 2007a). Notably, Over the past 100 years, the atmospheric con- range of impacts on cities and communities the Earth’s average surface temperature and centrations of these gases have increased (see around the world (Oreskes 2004). ocean temperature have increased over the past Figure A.2), resulting in greater heat from sunlight century—and especially in the past 20 years. remaining close to Earth, warming up the land These shifts in global climate patterns and their surface and oceans significantly (see Figure A.3). Overview of Weather and resulting impacts are what the international The international scientific community broadly Climate Change scientific community refers to as “global climate agrees that this rising global air temperature is change� (Dessler and Parson 2006). due to human activities that emit carbon dioxide, Cities around the world are familiar with changes methane, and other greenhouse gases into the in weather. Climate of a given region is defined atmosphere, including the burning of fossil fuels, as the average weather condition over a period of years (Dessler and Parson 2006). Both weather What is the Cause of deforestation, and forest degradation (Oreskes and climate vary from one part of the world to Climate Change? 2004; see Figure A.4). In other words, industrial- era human activities and associated increases in another, based on sunlight, distance from oceans, Historically the Earth has maintained an estimated atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and altitude (NCAR 2011). average temperature of 15ºC, ideal for human and have led to what scientists now term as the “en- Global and regional climates can also experience other life. Certain gases that naturally occur in the hanced greenhouse effect� (IPCC 2007a). changes over time, whether as short-lived cyclical atmosphere keep heat close to the Earth through 91 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities There is further evidence that air temperature Earth’s climate is very complex, climate models increase has led to a rise in ocean temperature, Projections of Future must be based on some assumptions. As under- melting of glaciers (also known as snowpack) Climate Change Impacts standing of the Earth’s climate becomes more and sea ice, and a rise in sea levels (see Table advanced, climate models can become increas- Global climate models describe how the Earth A.1). These observations reinforce the scientific ingly precise. system works, predicting how it would react in consensus that human activities are changing the the future based on the addition of greenhouse Based on these models and other climate global climate (Dessler and Parson 2006). gases to the atmosphere, deforestation, and other observations, the Intergovernmental Panel on changes by humans (NCAR 2011). Because the Climate Change (IPCC) assesses the current state figuRe a.1 The gReenhouse effecT—naTuRal anD human-inDuceD figuRe a.2 aTmosPheRic concenTRaTions of gReenhouse gases fRom yeaR 0 To yeaR 2005 Atmospheric concentrations of important long-lived greenhouse gasses over the last 2,000 years. Estimate of the Earth’s annual and global mean energy balance. Over the long term, the amount of incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Increases since about 1750 are attributed to human activities in the industrial era. Concentration Earth and atmosphere releasing the same amount of outgoing longwave radiation. About half of the incoming solar radiation is absorbed by units are parts per million (ppm) or parts per billion (ppb), indicating the number of molecules of the the Earth’s surface. This energy is transferred to the atmosphere by warming the air in contact with the surface (thermals), by evapotranspi- greenhouse gas per million or billion air molecules, respectively, in an atmospheric sample. ration and by longwave radiation that is absorbed by clouds and greenhouse gasses. The atmosphere in turn radiates longwave energy back to Earth as well as out to space. Source: Kiehl and Trenberth (1997). Reproduced with permission from IPCC 2007a. Reproduced with permission from IPCC 2007a. 92 APPENDIX of knowledge on climate change and related authoritative analysis of global climate impacts, FURThER RESOURCES impacts (IPCC 2011). Comprised of thousands as well as a summary for policy makers (IPCC of the world’s leading scientists from across 2007b; Oreskes 2004). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produces peer-reviewed reports about the causes and impacts of global climate change, based on 194 nations, the IPCC was established by the international consensus. More information is available online at: United Nations Environment Programme and the The IPCC has developed consensus that climate http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm. World Meteorological Organization to provide change is happening. The IPCC’s analysis of the The U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research provides a website describing a consensus-based view of climate change, scale and specific nature of future impacts de- basic concepts of weather, climate and climate change at pends in large part on the extent of global average http://eo.ucar.edu/basics/cc_1.html. drawing on numerous reports and findings. IPCC temperature increase resulting from greenhouse The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website provides assessment reports, which are published every educational resources on concepts related to climate change. Available at h five years, undergo an extensive peer-review and gas emissions (see Figure A.5). Several concepts ttp://www.education.noaa.gov/Climate/. government-review process to ensure both objec- described below illustrate the different factors to tivity and technical thoroughness. The IPCC Fourth be considered when developing a specific under- Assessment Report published in 2007 includes an standing of future impacts. figuRe a.3 global mean TemPeRaTuRe oveR Time Reproduced with permission from IPCC 2007a. 93 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities figuRe a.4 WoRlD gReenhouse gas emissions floW chaRT—WoRlD ResouRces insTiTuTe climaTe analysis inDicaToR Tool A positive feedback may intensify climate changes, while a negative feedback may reduce World GHG Emissions Flow Chart them (IPCC 2007c). Climate feedback in general Sector End Use/Activity Gas refers to an interaction between processes in the Road 9.9% climate system, in which an initial process trig- Transportation 13.5% gers changes in secondary processes that in turn Air 1.6% Rail, Ship, & Other Transport 2.3% influence the initial one. Residential Buildings 9.9% E N E R G Y An example of a positive feedback might be higher Electricity & Heat 24.6% Commercial Buildings 5.4% temperatures (as the initial process) leading to Unallocated Fuel Combustion 3.5% melting of the arctic ice, in turn leading to less Iron & Steel 3.2% reflection of solar radiation, which results in Aluminum/Non-Ferrous Metals 1.4% Machinery Pulp, Paper & Printing Food & Tobacco 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 77% higher temperatures. Other Fuel 9.0% Combustion Chemicals 4.8% Cement 3.8% An example of a negative feedback might be Industry 10.4% Other Industry 5.0% higher temperatures increasing the amount of T&D Losses Coal Mining 1.9% 1.4% cloud cover (thickness or extent) that could reduce Fugitive Emissions 3.9% Oil/Gas Extraction, Refining & Processing 6.3% incoming solar radiation and so limit the increase Industrial Processes 3.4% in temperature. Deforestation 18.3% Afforestation -1.5% Land Use Change 18.2% Reforestation -0.5% Inertia related to climate change mitigation Harvest/Management 2.5% HFCs, PFCs, Other -0.6% SF6 1% refers to “the difficulty of change resulting from Agricultural Energy Use 1.4% pre-existing conditions within society such as Methane Agriculture Soils 6.0% (CH4) 14% physical man-made capital, natural capital and Agriculture 13.5% Livestock & Manure 5.1% social non-physical capital, including institutions, Rice Cultivation Other Agriculture 1.5% 0.9% Nitrous Oxide regulations and norms� (IPCC 2007c). Thermal Landfills 2.0% (N2O) 8% Waste 3.6% Wastewater, Other Waste 1.6% inertia of the ocean “introduces a lag to the Sources & Notes: All data is for 2000. All calculations are based on CO2 equivalents, using 100-year global warming potentials from the IPCC (1996), based on a total global estimate of 41,755 MtCO2 equivalent. Land use change includes both emissions and absorptions; see Chapter 16. See Appendix 2 for detailed description of sector and end use/activity definitions, as well as data sources. warming of the climate system after concentra- Dotted lines represent flows of less than 0.1% percent of total GHG emissions. tions of greenhouse gases are stabilized� (IPCC Reproduced with permission from World Resources Institute 2005. 2007a). 94 APPENDIX The term tipping point commonly refers to a the points at which “human activities may have critical threshold at which a tiny disruption can the potential to push components of the Earth sys- Regional Impacts of “qualitatively alter the state or development of tem past critical states into qualitatively different Climate Change a system� (PNAS 2008). In context of climate modes of operation, implying large-scale impacts Climate change impacts will vary by region. All change, the understanding of tipping points is on human and ecological systems.� regions will experience some impacts as global evolving; most recently they have been defined as temperatures increase (see Table A.2). figuRe a.5 PRojecTeD imPacTs baseD on global aveRage TemPeRaTuRe incRease Table a.1 RecoRDeD changes Climate Variable Type of Recorded Change Surface air Average increase of 0.6ºC over the temperature 20th century (~50% occurred between 1980-2000). Glaciers Receding on average for a few centuries, increase of ~0.75ºC/century. Sea-level Rise of ~15 cm total over 20th century change (~50% due to ocean water warming). Sea ice Decrease by ~10-15% over past 50 years Arctic sea thickness decreased ~40% over same period). Ocean Top 300 m has warmed 0.18ºC over past temperature 50 years. Source: Dessler and Parson 2006. Reproduced with permission from IPCC 2007b. 95 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities Table a.2 PoTenTial imPacTs of climaTe change on The DiffeRenT Regions of The WoRlD Region Potential Impacts Increased water stress for 75–250 million people by 2020. Agricultural production and access to food is projected to be severely compromised in many countries and regions of Africa. Africa Threats to low-lying coastal areas posed by sea-level rise. Further degradation of mangroves and coral reefs projected and additional consequences for fisheries and tourism. Decreased fisheries resources in large lakes, which could be exacerbated by overfishing. Increases in flooding, rock avalanches, and water resource disruption because of glacier melt from Himalayas. Decreased freshwater availability in large river basins of Central, South, East, and South-East Asia, which, in conjunction with population growth and increased demand, could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s. Asia Increased flooding of coastal areas in South, East, and South-East Asia. Ongoing risk of hunger resulting from regional variations in crop productivity, combined with rapid population growth and urbanization, in several developing countries. Morbidity and mortality because of diarrhea associated with flooding and droughts. Intensified water security problems in southern and eastern Australia and parts of New Zealand by 2030. Significant loss of biodiversity in ecologically rich sites by 2020, including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. Australia and Increased risk from sea-level rise, more severe and more frequent storms, and coastal flooding in the Cairns region and southeast Queensland (Australia), Northland to Bay of New Zealand Plenty (New Zealand), and other coastal communities with ongoing development and population growth by 2050. Some initial agricultural benefits in western and southern New Zealand, such as longer growing seasons, less frost, and increased rainfall. Decreased yields from agriculture and forestry by 2030 because of increased drought and fire, in much of southern and eastern Australia and parts of eastern New Zealand. Increased risk of inland flash floods. More frequent coastal flooding and increased erosion because of storms and sea-level rise. South: More health-threatening heat waves and wildfires, reduced water availability and hydropower potential, endangered crop production, reduced summer tourism. Europe Central and East: More health-threatening heat waves, reduced summer rainfall, reduced forest productivity, more peatland fires. North: Initial mixed effects, including benefits such as reduced heating demand, increased crop yields, and increased forest growth; as climate change continues, negative impacts likely to outweigh benefits. continued next page 96 APPENDIX Table a.2 PoTenTial imPacTs of climaTe change on The DiffeRenT Regions of The WoRlD Region Potential Impacts Gradual replacement of tropical forest by savanna in eastern Amazonia because of higher temperatures and reduced soil moisture. Risk of significant biodiversity loss. Adverse effects on coral reefs. Species extinctions in many tropical areas. Shifts in the location of southeast Pacific fish stocks. Loss of arable land in drier areas because of increased salinity and desertification. Latin America Decreased yields of some important crops and reduced livestock productivity. Increased soybean yields in temperate zones. Increased risk of flooding in low-lying areas because of sea-level rise. Stress on water availability because of precipitation changes and disappearing glaciers. Western mountains: Decreased snowpack, more winter flooding, and reduced summer flows. Increasing impacts on forests due to pests, diseases, and fire, with an extended period of high fire risk and large increases in area burned. In early decades of the century, during moderate climate change, 5–20% increase in total agricultural yields, with important regional variations; major challenges for crops with North America limited access to water or those near the warm end of their suitable range. Increased intensity, duration, and number of heat waves in cities historically prone to them; the elderly, whose proportion of the U.S. population is increasing, are most at risk. Coastal areas: Increased stress on people and property because of climate change impacts interacting with development and pollution. Thinning and reduced extent of glaciers and ice sheets. Changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice and deeper seasonal thawing of permafrost. Polar Regions Detrimental effects on migratory birds, mammals, higher predators, and other species because of changes in natural ecosystems. Negative impacts on Arctic society include threats to traditional ways of life. Positive impacts on Arctic society may include reduced heating costs and more navigable sea routes. Threats to vital infrastructure, settlements, and facilities because of sea-level rise. Reduced water resources on many small islands by mid-century, jeopardizing access to fresh water during dry periods. Small Islands Fisheries impacts and reduced tourism value because of beach erosion, coral bleaching, and other deteriorating coastal conditions. Invasion by nonnative species with higher temperatures, especially on middle and high-latitude islands. Source: IPCC 2007b. 97 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). 2011. References “What is the Difference between Weather and Dessler, Andrew E., and Edward A. Parson. 2006. The Climate?� http://eo.ucar.edu/basics/index.html. Science and Politics of Global Climate Change: A ______. 2011. “Models Predict the Future.� http:// Guide to the Debate. Cambridge: University Press. eo.ucar.edu/basics/cc_5.html. IPCC. 2007a. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Oreskes, Naomi. 2004. “The Scientific Consensus of Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group Climate Change.� Science. http://www.sciencemag. I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the org/content/306/5702/1686.full. Vol. 306 no. 5702, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by p. 1686 Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller, eds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY: (PNAS). 2008. vol. 105 no. 6 1786-1793. http:// Cambridge University Press. www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.long. _____. 2007b. “Summary for Policymakers.� In World Resources Institute. 2005. Navigating the Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group Climate Policy. Washington, DC: WRI. http://cait. II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the wri.org/figures.php Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, eds. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ______. 2007c. “AR4 Annex I Glossary.� www.ipcc.ch/ pdf/glossary/ar4-wg3.pdf. ______. 2011. http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/ organization.shtml 98 glossary Glossary Adaptation refers to initiatives and measures to Climate variability refers to variations in the Maladaptation is any change in natural or reduce the vulnerability of natural and human sys- average climate beyond that of individual weather human systems that inadvertently increases tems against actual or expected climate change events (IPCC 2007a). vulnerability to climatic stimuli, or an adaptation effects (IPCC 2007a). that does not succeed in reducing vulnerability but Disaster risk reduction is the broad develop- increases it instead (IPCC 2001). Adaptive capacity refers to the whole of capa- ment and application of policies, strategies, and bilities, resources, and institutions of a country practices to minimize vulnerabilities and disaster natural hazards comprise such phenomena or region to implement effective adaptation risk through society, through prevention, mitiga- as the following: earthquakes; volcanic activity; measures (IPCC 2007a). tion, and preparedness (Twigg 2004). landslides; tsunamis; tropical cyclones and other severe storms; tornadoes and high winds; Climate change is a change of climate attributed Exposure refers to the nature and degree to river floods and coastal flooding; wildfires and directly or indirectly to human activity that alters which a system is exposed to significant climatic associated haze; drought; sand/dust storms; and the composition of the global atmosphere and that variations (IPCC 2001). infestations (ISDR 2001). is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods (UNFCCC 1992). Green infrastructure is the interconnected Resilience is the ability of a system to absorb network of open spaces and natural areas, such disturbances while retaining the same basic Climate change impact refers to the effects as greenways, wetlands, parks, forest preserves, structure and ways of functioning; it is the capac- of existing or forecasted changes in climate on and native plant vegetation that naturally man- ity to self-organize and adapt to stress and change natural and human systems (IPCC 2007a). ages storm water, reduces flooding risk, and (IPCC 2007a). improves water quality (Center for Neighborhood Climate change mitigation means implement- Technology 2011). Risk is the combination of the probability of an ing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions event and its consequences (IPCC 2007c). and enhance sinks (IPCC 2007a). Magnitude refers to the scale (for example, the geographic area or number of people affected) Sensitivity refers to the degree to which a built, and intensity (for example, the degree of damage natural, or human system is directly or indirectly caused) of an impact (IPCC 2007b). affected by changes in climate conditions (for 99 guide to climAte chAnge AdAptAtion in cities example, temperature and precipitation) or specif- Glossary References United Kingdom and New York, NY: Cambridge ic climate change impacts (for example, sea-level University Press. Center for Neighborhood Technology. 2011. http:// rise or increased water temperature). If a system _____. 2007c. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation greenvalues.cnt.org/green-infrastructure. is likely to be affected as a result of projected of Climate Change. Contribution of Working ICLEI. 2011. Adapting Urban Water Systems to Climate Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the climate change, it should be considered sensitive Change—A Handbook for Decision Makers at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by B. to climate change (Snover and others 2007). Local Level. Freiburg, Germany: ICLEI European Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave and L.A. Secretariat. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is Meyer, eds. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New susceptible to and unable to cope with adverse IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation York, NY: Cambridge University Press. effects of climate change, including climate and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Snover, A.K. and others. 2007. Preparing for Climate Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a func- Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional and State Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Governments. In association with and published tion of the character, magnitude, and rate of McCarthy, J.J., O. F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J. by ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability. climate change and variation to which a system Dokken and K.S. White, eds. Cambridge, United Oakland, CA: ICLEI. is exposed, as well as the system’s sensitivity and Kingdom and New York, NY: Cambridge University adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007a). Twigg, J. 2004. Disaster Risk Reduction: Mitigation Press. and Preparedness in Development and Emergency _____. 2007a. Climate Change 2007: Glossary of the Programming, Good Practice Review. London: Synthesis Report. Synthesis Report of the Fourth Humanitarian Practice Network (HPN). United Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Panel on Climate Change by A.P.M. Baede, P. van 1992. Article 1. Available online at http://unfccc. FURThER RESOURCES der Linden and A. Verbruggen, eds. Cambridge, int/essential_background/convention/background/ Other documents that may be useful references for definitions include the following: United Kingdom and New York, NY: Cambridge items/2536.php. Accessed June 28, 2011. University Press. Online at http://www.ipcc.ch/ Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional and State UN-HABITAT. Forthcoming. Planning for Climate Change. Governments (Snover and others 2007, available online at http://www.cses. pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_appendix. washington.edu/db/pdf/snoveretalgb574.pdf). pdf. (Accessed June 28, 2011.) UNISDR. 2001. Framework for Action: For the Implementation of the International Strategy for On Better Terms, a UN-ISDR comparative glossary of disaster risk reduction and _____. 2007b. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, climate change adaptation terms (UN ISDR 2006, available online at http://www. Disaster Reduction (ISDR). Geneva: ISDR. Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of preventionweb.net/files/3854_Onbetterterms1.pdf). _____. 2006. On Better Terms: A Glance at Key Climate Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report UN-HABITAT’s Planning for Climate Change handbook (UN-HABITAT forthcoming). of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Change and Disaster Risk Reduction Concepts. Adapting Urban Water Systems to Climate Change (ICLEI 2011, available online at by Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/ http://www.adaptationhandbook.org). van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, eds. Cambridge, publications/v.php?id=3854. 100 This guide has benefited from the support of the Trust Fund for Environmentally & Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD) made available by the governments of Finland and Norway. It was developed as part of the UNEP - UN-HABITAT - World Bank joint work program on cities and climate change, through the Cities Alliance. The full guide, including an interactive online version, is available at www.go.worldbank.org/EEBXSYRPR0 and www-esd.worldbank.org/citiesccadapation. For more information, contact: Urban Development and Local Government Unit Sustainable Development Network The World Bank | 1818 H Street, NW | Washington, DC 20433 | USA Email: urbanhelp@worldbank.org Website: www.worldbank.org/urban