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elfare Power 2001 1999 2001 1999 Lowest 22 32 5 62 (2) (2) (1) (2) 2nd 38 34 20 22 (2) (1) (2) (1) 3rd 25 19 21 9 (2) (1) (1) (1) 4th 11 9 25 4 (1) (1) (2) (1) 5th 3 4 15 2 (1) (1) (1) (1) 6th 1 1 8 1 (0) (0) (1) (0) 7th 0 1 3 0 (0) (0) (1) (0) 8th 0 0 1 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) Highest 0 0 1 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) Note: The numbers in brackets refer to standard errors. #! # 2 ' 2 * - ) !!! #$$ 1999 2001 Lowest 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Lowest 43 39 14 3 1 (4) (3) (2) (1) (0) 2nd 16 50 26 7 1 (2) (3) (3) (1) (1) 3rd 8 30 40 19 2 (2) (3) (4) (3) (1) 4th 7 23 29 31 9 (3) (4) (4) (6) (4) 5th 3 14 20 17 45 (2) (5) (5) (5) (6) Note: The numbers in brackets refer to standard errors. 7 2 ' 2 * - . !!! #$$ 1999 2001 Lowest 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Lowest 5 22 22 26 26 (1) (2) (2) (2) (3) 2nd 6 19 21 26 27 (2) (3) (2) (3) (4) 3rd 5 17 18 27 33 (2) (4) (3) (5) (6) 4th 2 14 6 19 59 (1) (5) (3) (4) (10) 5th 1 9 9 2 78 (1) (5) (5) (2) (13) Note: The numbers in brackets refer to standard errors. 7$ 5 - 2 ' 2 !!! #$$ I J U e Welfare 1 42.01 0.79 1.79 16 2 79.17 0.28 2.28 37 3 94.04 0.24 2.76 28 4 99.13 0.87 3.13 13 5 1.14 3.86 4 Total 0.51 2.76 2.5 Power 1 27.87 2.47 3.47 2 2 60.06 1.48 3.48 12 3 81.73 0.67 3.67 11 4 94.50 0.20 4.20 10 5 0.53 4.47 64 Total 0.70 3.86 4.2 7 B 3 . - ) . #$$ WELFARE POWER MODEL 1 MODEL 2 MODEL 3 MODEL 1 MODEL 2 MODEL 3 Coef z-sts Coef z-sts Coef z-sts Coef z-sts Coef z-sts Coef z-sts (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Economic Welfare ratio 0.013 3.1 0.007 1.7 Village welfare ratio -0.021 -1.4 0.007 0.5 Housing conditions 0.094 3.0 0.114 4.1 0.034 1.1 0.039 1.5 Per capita HH assets 0.000 9.9 0.000 10.2 0.000 5.1 0.000 5.1 Per capita aid assistance 0.000 2.6 0.000 3.8 0.000 1.9 0.000 2.0 Paved Road 0.082 5.3 0.078 5.5 0.020 1.4 0.015 1.1 Unemployed -0.342 -4.1 -0.307 -3.7 0.080 1.0 0.106 1.3 Farmer -0.215 -3.3 -0.172 -2.7 -0.122 -1.9 -0.084 -1.4 Pensioner -0.153 -2.1 -0.149 -2.1 -0.065 -0.9 -0.042 -0.6 Coffee farmer -0.104 -1.4 -0.108 -1.4 -0.061 -0.8 -0.064 -0.9 Student -0.063 -0.8 -0.015 -0.2 -0.003 0.0 0.066 0.9 Social Mother Tetun -0.103 -1.6 -0.100 -1.5 -0.098 -1.6 0.204 3.2 0.197 3.1 0.245 4.1 Speaks Tetun 0.203 3.6 0.214 3.8 0.295 5.5 0.022 0.4 0.030 0.6 0.120 2.4 Speaks Portuguese 0.268 4.7 0.199 3.4 0.173 3.0 0.158 2.8 0.133 2.3 0.105 1.9 Mother Bunak 0.198 3.3 0.110 1.8 0.235 4.5 0.216 3.8 0.169 2.9 0.078 1.5 Mother Macasae -0.041 -0.7 -0.097 -1.7 -0.102 -2.1 0.046 0.8 0.018 0.3 0.144 3.0 Mother Mambae 0.021 0.4 0.067 1.3 0.126 2.9 -0.026 -0.5 -0.026 -0.5 0.143 3.4 Mother tongue of sub-district 0.082 2.2 0.085 2.2 0.039 1.1 0.087 2.4 0.089 2.4 0.028 0.8 Radio or TV (#) 0.060 2.1 0.004 0.2 -0.013 -0.5 0.103 3.8 0.077 2.8 0.054 2.0 HH attends community group -0.188 -1.5 -0.217 -1.7 -0.153 -1.2 0.062 0.5 0.047 0.4 0.196 1.6 Village leader years of education 0.003 0.4 0.001 0.1 0.029 4.0 0.028 3.8 Village leader years living in village -0.001 -0.5 -0.001 -0.8 0.008 5.1 0.008 5.0 Basic Household size 0.038 5.2 0.039 5.1 0.035 4.7 0.023 3.3 0.020 2.8 0.021 2.9 Share 0-6 year-old -0.205 -1.9 -0.133 -1.2 -0.085 -0.8 -0.231 -2.2 -0.196 -1.9 -0.120 -1.2 Share 7-14 year-old -0.078 -0.7 -0.070 -0.6 -0.014 -0.1 0.006 0.1 0.036 0.3 0.064 0.6 Share 50 years or older 0.026 0.3 0.017 0.2 -0.004 0.0 -0.070 -0.8 -0.054 -0.6 -0.010 -0.1 Male -0.050 -1.6 -0.034 -0.8 -0.050 -1.2 0.008 0.3 0.036 0.9 0.032 0.8 Age 0.007 1.1 0.004 0.6 0.005 0.7 0.003 0.6 0.006 1.1 0.008 1.4 Age square 0.000 -0.6 0.000 -0.1 0.000 -0.1 0.000 0.0 0.000 -0.7 0.000 -0.9 Married 0.221 3.8 0.185 3.0 0.213 3.4 0.160 2.9 0.169 2.8 0.191 3.2 Single 0.185 2.4 0.133 1.7 0.162 2.1 0.169 2.3 0.145 1.9 0.170 2.3 Education 0.085 6.4 0.059 4.2 0.051 3.7 0.092 7.1 0.078 5.7 0.070 5.2 Parental schooling 0.202 3.2 0.152 2.4 0.114 1.8 0.162 2.6 0.143 2.3 0.096 1.6 Community Hamlet infrastructure 0.017 1.4 -0.014 -1.1 -0.021 -1.8 -0.031 -2.5 Hamlet piped water 0.107 2.4 0.104 2.3 0.024 0.6 0.017 0.4 Village teacher-student ratio -3.4 -1.5 -4.4 -1.9 6.8 3.1 6.8 3.0 Village classroom-student ratio 0.7 0.3 5.7 2.0 -9.5 -3.6 -7.9 -2.9 Village health service days pc -12.5 -1.5 -16.0 -1.9 -24.3 -3.1 -23.7 -3.0 Village income sources (#) -0.242 -8.4 -0.245 -8.5 -0.227 -8.2 -0.228 -8.2 Village coffee -0.259 -4.9 -0.222 -3.9 -0.254 -4.9 -0.246 -4.4 Village other -0.056 -0.9 -0.058 -0.9 0.007 0.1 0.010 0.2 Sub-district capital -0.044 -0.9 0.014 0.3 -0.196 -3.9 -0.182 -3.6 District capital -0.132 -1.2 -0.179 -1.6 0.258 2.4 0.249 2.3 Other Urban 0.223 2.8 0.192 2.4 -0.024 -0.3 -0.036 -0.5 Rural West -0.023 -0.3 0.010 0.1 -0.323 -4.3 -0.303 -3.7 Rural Center 0.105 1.4 0.045 0.6 0.179 2.5 0.163 2.1 Rural East -0.31 -4.0 -0.23 -2.8 -0.111 -1.5 -0.063 -0.8 Aldrich-Nelson Pseudo R2 0.124 0.162 0.138 0.127 0.137 0.087 Cutoffs -0.53 0.21 -0.56 0.23 0.23 0.18 -1.29 0.20 -1.26 0.22 -0.81 0.18 0.57 0.21 0.56 0.23 1.34 0.18 -0.25 0.20 -0.21 0.22 0.20 0.17 1.41 0.21 1.43 0.23 2.19 0.18 0.35 0.20 0.40 0.22 0.79 0.17 2.22 0.21 2.25 0.23 3.00 0.19 1.05 0.20 1.10 0.22 1.47 0.18 2.80 0.22 2.85 0.23 3.61 0.19 1.60 0.20 1.65 0.22 2.02 0.18 2.11 0.20 2.16 0.22 2.53 0.18 2.52 0.21 2.57 0.22 2.92 0.18 2.82 0.21 2.87 0.22 3.22 0.18 7# J . . - ) . #$$ * ) / 2 Step Bot. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Welfare Actual (1) 0.218 0.386 0.248 0.111 0.027 0.010 Predicted (2) 0.214 0.385 0.254 0.111 0.026 0.010 Power Actual (3) 0.048 0.203 0.206 0.250 0.148 0.084 0.034 0.014 0.014 Predicted (4) 0.047 0.199 0.209 0.251 0.149 0.083 0.034 0.014 0.014 Welfare Wage earner (5) 0.170 0.397 0.282 0.119 0.025 0.007 Unemployed (6) 0.270 0.425 0.220 0.071 0.011 0.003 Difference (7) -0.100 -0.028 0.062 0.048 0.013 0.005 Mother tongue Tetun (8) 0.201 0.411 0.263 0.101 0.019 0.005 Other mother tongue (9) 0.174 0.399 0.280 0.117 0.024 0.007 Difference (10) 0.027 0.012 -0.017 -0.016 -0.005 -0.002 Power Wage earner (11) 0.032 0.176 0.211 0.270 0.163 0.089 0.035 0.013 0.012 Unemployed (12) 0.026 0.159 0.202 0.273 0.173 0.098 0.040 0.015 0.015 Difference (13) 0.005 0.017 0.009 -0.002 -0.010 -0.009 -0.005 -0.002 -0.003 Mother tongue Tetun (14) 0.021 0.140 0.191 0.273 0.183 0.109 0.046 0.018 0.018 Other mother tongue (15) 0.033 0.181 0.213 0.269 0.160 0.086 0.033 0.012 0.011 Difference (16) -0.012 -0.041 -0.023 0.004 0.023 0.023 0.013 0.006 0.007 Differential change of welfare to power Wage earner (17) -0.106 -0.045 0.053 0.051 0.023 0.024 Mother tongue Tetun (18) 0.039 0.053 0.006 -0.019 -0.027 -0.051 77 ? 2 / 3 . 3 - - ) . #$$ Change WELFARE MODEL 2 POWER MODEL 2 F-Test Step OLS Step OLS OLS Bot. 2 3 4 Coeff. t-stat Bot. 2 3 4 Coeff. t-stat (Pr>F) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) Economic Housing conditions MargEfct -0.024 -0.012 0.015 0.015 0.087 2.9 -0.002 -0.007 -0.004 0.001 0.038 0.8 0.382 Per capita HH assets MargEfct -8.E-08 -4.E-08 5.E-08 5.E-08 3.E-07 10.5 -1.E-08 -3.E-08 -2.E-08 5.E-09 2.E-07 4.8 0.094 Per capita aid assistance MargEfct -2.E-08 -1.E-08 1.E-08 1.E-08 6.E-08 2.3 -4.E-09 -1.E-08 -6.E-09 2.E-09 7.E-08 1.6 0.938 Paved Road 0->1 -0.027 -0.003 0.016 0.010 0.081 5.5 -0.002 -0.004 -0.002 0.001 0.022 1.0 0.031 Unemployed 0->1 0.100 0.028 -0.062 -0.048 -0.341 -4.3 -0.005 -0.017 -0.009 0.002 0.100 0.8 0.002 Farmer 0->1 0.059 0.024 -0.037 -0.033 -0.219 -3.5 0.009 0.026 0.012 -0.005 -0.185 -1.9 0.768 Pensioner 0->1 0.041 0.018 -0.026 -0.024 -0.185 -2.7 0.005 0.014 0.007 -0.003 -0.113 -1.1 0.566 Coffee farmer 0->1 0.028 0.012 -0.018 -0.016 -0.123 -1.7 0.004 0.013 0.006 -0.003 -0.084 -0.7 0.778 Student 0->1 0.017 0.008 -0.011 -0.010 -0.078 -1.1 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.016 0.2 0.486 Social Mother Tetun 0->1 0.027 0.012 -0.017 -0.016 -0.086 -1.4 -0.012 -0.041 -0.023 0.004 0.300 3.1 0.001 Speaks Tetun 0->1 -0.060 -0.022 0.038 0.032 0.169 3.2 -0.002 -0.006 -0.003 0.001 0.015 0.2 0.113 Speaks Portuguese 0->1 -0.048 -0.030 0.030 0.033 0.197 3.5 -0.008 -0.028 -0.015 0.003 0.232 2.7 0.736 Mother Bunak 0->1 -0.027 -0.016 0.017 0.018 0.121 2.1 -0.010 -0.035 -0.019 0.003 0.245 2.8 0.241 Mother Macasae 0->1 0.026 0.012 -0.017 -0.015 -0.099 -1.8 -0.001 -0.004 -0.002 0.001 0.039 0.5 0.179 Mother Mambae 0->1 -0.017 -0.009 0.011 0.011 0.067 1.3 0.002 0.006 0.003 -0.001 -0.018 -0.2 0.358 Mother tongue of sub-district 0->1 -0.022 -0.011 0.014 0.013 0.083 2.3 -0.006 -0.019 -0.009 0.003 0.162 2.9 0.243 Radio or TV (#) 0->1 -0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.001 0.015 0.6 -0.006 -0.017 -0.008 0.004 0.120 2.9 0.036 HH attends community group MargEfct 0.057 0.028 -0.036 -0.035 -0.217 -1.8 -0.003 -0.010 -0.005 0.002 0.256 1.3 0.037 Village leader years of education MargEfct -3.E-04 -1.E-04 2.E-04 2.E-04 0.001 0.1 -2.E-03 -6.E-03 -3.E-03 1.E-03 0.049 4.3 0.000 Village leader years living in village MargEfct 3.E-04 2.E-04 -2.E-04 -2.E-04 -0.001 -0.9 -6.E-04 -2.E-03 -9.E-04 3.E-04 0.012 4.8 0.000 Basic Household size MargEfct -0.010 -0.005 0.006 0.006 0.039 5.4 -0.001 -0.004 -0.002 0.001 0.032 2.9 0.618 Share 0-6 year-old MargEfct 0.035 0.017 -0.022 -0.021 -0.087 -0.9 0.014 0.042 0.021 -0.007 -0.343 -2.2 0.176 Share 7-14 year-old MargEfct 0.018 0.009 -0.011 -0.011 -0.069 -0.7 -0.003 -0.008 -0.004 0.001 -0.015 -0.1 0.778 Share 50 years or older MargEfct -0.005 -0.002 0.003 0.003 0.046 0.5 0.004 0.012 0.006 -0.002 -0.115 -0.8 0.345 Male 0->1 0.009 0.004 -0.006 -0.005 -0.047 -1.2 -0.003 -0.008 -0.004 0.001 0.046 0.7 0.214 Age MargEfct -0.001 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.5 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.011 1.2 0.488 Age square MargEfct 1.E-06 7.E-07 -9.E-07 -9.E-07 2.E-06 0.0 3.E-06 1.E-05 5.E-06 -2.E-06 -8.E-05 -0.8 0.487 Married 0->1 -0.049 -0.023 0.031 0.029 0.163 2.8 -0.012 -0.036 -0.018 0.006 0.234 2.6 0.513 Single 0->1 -0.034 -0.018 0.021 0.021 0.104 1.4 -0.010 -0.031 -0.016 0.004 0.196 1.7 0.503 Education 0->1 -0.017 -0.006 0.011 0.009 0.060 4.5 -0.007 -0.018 -0.007 0.005 0.118 5.7 0.019 Parental schooling 0->1 -0.037 -0.023 0.023 0.025 0.147 2.4 -0.009 -0.030 -0.016 0.003 0.233 2.5 0.447 Community Hamlet infrastructure MargEfct 0.004 0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.007 -0.6 0.002 0.007 0.003 -0.001 -0.038 -2.0 0.171 Hamlet piped water 0->1 -0.026 -0.014 0.017 0.017 0.094 2.1 -0.001 -0.004 -0.002 0.001 0.020 0.3 0.364 Village teacher-student ratio MargEfct 1.146 0.574 -0.723 -0.700 -4.739 -2.1 -0.476 -1.460 -0.720 0.238 10.688 3.1 0.000 Village classroom-student ratio MargEfct -1.473 -0.738 0.930 0.900 5.981 2.2 0.549 1.686 0.832 -0.275 -13.710 -3.3 0.000 Village health service days pc MargEfct 4.180 2.093 -2.639 -2.554 -17.006 -2.2 1.655 5.078 2.506 -0.828 -38.458 -3.2 0.139 Village income sources (#) 0->1 0.032 0.059 -0.005 -0.045 -0.236 -8.6 0.005 0.031 0.033 0.022 -0.319 -7.5 0.100 Village coffee 0->1 0.062 0.023 -0.039 -0.033 -0.215 -3.9 0.020 0.054 0.022 -0.014 -0.392 -4.6 0.079 Village other 0->1 0.015 0.007 -0.010 -0.009 -0.046 -0.8 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 -0.004 0.0 0.709 Sub-district capital 0->1 -0.004 -0.002 0.002 0.002 0.015 0.3 0.014 0.040 0.017 -0.009 -0.266 -3.4 0.002 District capital 0->1 0.050 0.018 -0.031 -0.027 -0.169 -1.6 -0.014 -0.050 -0.030 0.001 0.414 2.5 0.003 Other Urban 0->1 -0.047 -0.029 0.029 0.032 0.179 2.3 0.003 0.008 0.004 -0.001 -0.159 -1.3 0.018 Rural West 0->1 -0.003 -0.001 0.002 0.002 -0.025 -0.3 0.026 0.068 0.026 -0.019 -0.543 -4.4 0.000 Rural Center 0->1 -0.011 -0.006 0.007 0.007 0.023 0.3 -0.011 -0.034 -0.018 0.004 0.184 1.6 0.254 Rural East 0->1 0.064 0.024 -0.040 -0.035 -0.217 -2.8 0.005 0.014 0.006 -0.003 -0.172 -1.4 0.755 Constant 2.140 10.0 3.019 9.1 75 D 3 . - ) . !!! #$$ WELFARE POWER MODEL 1 MODEL 2 MODEL 3 MODEL 4 MODEL 1 MODEL 2 MODEL 3 MODEL 4 Coef z-sts Coef z-sts Coef z-sts Coef z-sts Coef z-sts Coef z-sts Coef z-sts Coef z-sts (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Shock Improvement since violence in: Demand for products 0.048 1.7 -0.024 -0.9 Infrastructure 0.057 1.9 -0.014 -0.5 Employment 0.033 1.2 -0.032 -1.2 Access to land 0.004 0.1 0.004 0.1 Housing 0.031 1.1 -0.061 -2.1 Education 0.065 2.6 0.025 1.0 Health care 0.038 1.5 -0.035 -1.4 Safety 0.024 1.1 0.015 0.7 Political participation -0.018 -0.6 0.090 3.2 Status in community -0.016 -0.4 0.098 2.5 Corrupation 0.121 5.8 0.056 2.7 Own-health 0.161 5.3 0.096 3.2 Changed dwelling since violence -0.132 -3.3 -0.130 -3.3 -0.197 -5.1 -0.190 -4.9 Housing destruction in violence -0.072 -3.7 -0.076 -3.8 -0.028 -1.5 -0.017 -0.9 Livestock loss in violence -0.123 -3.9 -0.111 -3.5 0.002 0.1 -0.025 -0.8 Village lost livestock in violence -0.159 -3.4 -0.159 -3.4 -0.078 -1.7 -0.075 -1.6 Village classroom destruction in viol. -0.422 -5.7 -0.448 -6.0 -0.267 -3.7 -0.281 -3.9 Economic Bank account in 1999 -0.558 -7.2 -0.555 -7.1 -0.544 -6.8 0.177 2.3 0.194 2.5 0.186 2.4 Per capita livestock in 1999 0.000 -3.9 0.000 -3.0 0.000 -3.3 0.000 3.7 0.000 3.6 0.000 3.7 Basic HH Size (#) in 1999 0.016 2.4 0.020 3.0 0.024 3.5 0.034 5.3 0.035 5.4 0.034 5.2 Share 0-6 in 1999 0.106 1.1 0.095 1.0 0.081 0.9 -0.254 -2.8 -0.261 -2.8 -0.274 -2.9 Share 7-14 in 1999 0.055 0.5 -0.017 -0.2 -0.060 -0.6 -0.002 0.0 -0.045 -0.4 -0.063 -0.6 Share 50plus in 1999 0.181 1.9 0.158 1.7 0.152 1.6 -0.088 -1.0 -0.116 -1.2 -0.122 -1.3 Male 0.021 0.7 0.021 0.7 0.024 0.8 0.023 0.8 0.035 1.2 0.036 1.2 0.038 1.3 0.036 1.2 Age -0.001 -0.2 0.000 0.1 0.000 0.1 -0.001 -0.2 -0.009 -2.1 -0.007 -1.5 -0.007 -1.6 -0.006 -1.3 Age square 0.000 -0.4 0.000 -0.6 0.000 -0.8 0.000 -0.4 0.000 1.8 0.000 1.3 0.000 1.3 0.000 1.0 Education in 1999 -0.004 -0.3 0.007 0.5 0.015 1.1 0.014 1.0 0.041 3.3 0.046 3.6 0.053 4.2 0.056 4.4 Parental ecuation -0.103 -1.7 -0.071 -1.1 -0.057 -0.9 -0.030 -0.5 0.045 0.7 0.058 1.0 0.074 1.2 0.078 1.3 Social Mother Tetun 0.128 2.1 0.089 1.4 0.070 1.1 0.067 1.1 0.408 6.7 0.356 5.8 0.357 5.7 0.331 5.3 Speaks Tetun 0.157 3.1 0.168 3.3 0.026 0.5 0.011 0.2 -0.014 -0.3 -0.043 -0.9 -0.129 -2.4 -0.164 -3.0 Speaks Portuguese -0.065 -1.2 -0.039 -0.7 -0.024 -0.4 -0.030 -0.5 0.070 1.3 0.029 0.5 0.034 0.6 0.048 0.9 Mother Bunak 0.054 1.0 0.061 1.1 0.096 1.7 0.126 2.2 0.030 0.6 0.011 0.2 0.033 0.6 0.045 0.8 Mother Macasae 0.157 2.9 0.198 3.6 0.145 2.6 0.189 3.3 0.214 4.0 0.189 3.6 0.164 3.0 0.168 3.1 Mother Mambae 0.108 2.4 0.083 1.9 0.081 1.8 0.088 1.9 0.107 2.5 0.107 2.4 0.117 2.6 0.123 2.8 Community Sub-district capital -0.022 -0.5 -0.035 -0.8 -0.091 -2.0 -0.075 -1.6 -0.111 -2.5 -0.121 -2.8 -0.166 -3.7 -0.165 -3.7 District capital -0.422 -4.0 -0.403 -3.8 -0.395 -3.7 -0.418 -3.9 -0.273 -2.7 -0.251 -2.4 -0.219 -2.1 -0.146 -1.4 Other Urban -0.158 -2.4 -0.161 -2.4 -0.046 -0.7 -0.104 -1.5 -0.119 -1.8 -0.096 -1.5 -0.076 -1.1 -0.088 -1.3 Rural West -0.222 -3.5 -0.201 -3.1 -0.045 -0.7 -0.059 -0.8 -0.319 -5.1 -0.303 -4.7 -0.259 -3.8 -0.294 -4.3 Rural Center -0.291 -5.2 -0.299 -5.2 -0.281 -4.8 -0.279 -4.7 -0.280 -5.1 -0.249 -4.5 -0.276 -4.9 -0.251 -4.3 Rural East -0.114 -1.9 -0.138 -2.2 -0.218 -3.4 -0.248 -3.8 -0.038 -0.6 0.009 0.1 -0.077 -1.3 -0.057 -0.9 Aldrich-Nelson Pseudo R2 0.026 0.045 0.069 0.096 0.070 0.084 0.095 0.115 Cutoffs -2.06 0.12 -1.95 0.13 -2.38 0.14 -1.03 0.72 -2.29 0.12 -2.10 0.13 -2.36 0.14 -1.74 0.70 -1.52 0.12 -1.40 0.13 -1.82 0.14 -0.47 0.72 -1.86 0.12 -1.66 0.13 -1.93 0.14 -1.31 0.70 -0.82 0.12 -0.68 0.13 -1.10 0.14 0.25 0.72 -1.28 0.11 -1.07 0.13 -1.34 0.13 -0.71 0.70 0.33 0.12 0.47 0.13 0.07 0.14 1.44 0.72 -0.55 0.11 -0.35 0.13 -0.60 0.13 0.04 0.70 1.30 0.12 1.45 0.13 1.06 0.14 2.44 0.72 0.03 0.11 0.24 0.13 -0.01 0.13 0.63 0.70 2.06 0.12 2.21 0.13 1.82 0.14 3.21 0.72 0.65 0.11 0.86 0.13 0.62 0.13 1.26 0.70 1.17 0.11 1.40 0.13 1.15 0.13 1.80 0.70 1.59 0.12 1.81 0.13 1.56 0.14 2.21 0.70 1.91 0.12 2.14 0.13 1.89 0.14 2.54 0.70 7B ! . . - ) . !!! #$$ * 1 , @ !!! 2 , P Step Change -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) Welfare Actual (1) 0.024 0.050 0.151 0.426 0.260 0.071 0.018 Predicted (2) 0.024 0.050 0.151 0.425 0.260 0.071 0.018 Power Actual (3) 0.022 0.034 0.099 0.223 0.220 0.204 0.110 0.048 0.021 0.020 Predicted (4) 0.022 0.033 0.098 0.224 0.221 0.204 0.110 0.046 0.021 0.020 Welfare Bank account in 1999 (5) 0.055 0.095 0.227 0.432 0.160 0.026 0.004 No bank account in 1999 (6) 0.016 0.041 0.139 0.435 0.278 0.074 0.018 Difference (7) 0.039 0.054 0.089 -0.002 -0.118 -0.048 -0.014 Mother tongue Tetun (8) 0.015 0.039 0.135 0.432 0.283 0.077 0.019 Other mother tongue (9) 0.018 0.044 0.146 0.439 0.268 0.069 0.016 Difference (10) -0.003 -0.005 -0.011 -0.007 0.014 0.008 0.003 Livestock loss in violence (11) 0.020 0.048 0.153 0.442 0.259 0.064 0.014 No livestock loss in violence (12) 0.015 0.039 0.135 0.432 0.283 0.077 0.019 Difference (13) 0.005 0.009 0.018 0.010 -0.024 -0.013 -0.005 Power Bank account in 1999 (14) 0.009 0.018 0.064 0.187 0.223 0.237 0.142 0.064 0.029 0.028 No bank account in 1999 (15) 0.015 0.026 0.085 0.218 0.231 0.220 0.118 0.049 0.021 0.018 Difference (16) -0.006 -0.008 -0.021 -0.031 -0.008 0.017 0.024 0.015 0.008 0.010 Mother tongue Tetun (17) 0.007 0.014 0.055 0.169 0.216 0.244 0.154 0.073 0.035 0.035 Other mother tongue (18) 0.016 0.028 0.090 0.225 0.232 0.216 0.113 0.045 0.019 0.016 Difference (19) -0.009 -0.014 -0.036 -0.056 -0.017 0.028 0.041 0.027 0.016 0.019 Livestock loss in violence (20) 0.015 0.026 0.085 0.218 0.231 0.220 0.118 0.048 0.021 0.018 No livestock loss in violence (21) 0.014 0.025 0.082 0.214 0.231 0.223 0.121 0.050 0.022 0.019 Difference (22) 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.004 0.001 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 Differential change of welfare to power Livestock loss in violence (23) 0.012 0.026 0.025 -0.018 -0.038 -0.007 7J $ 3 - - ) . !!! #$$ Change WELFARE MODEL 4 POWER MODEL 4 F-Test Step change OLS Step change OLS OLS -2 -1 0 1 Coeff. t-stat -2 -1 0 1 Coeff. t-stat (Pr>F) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) Shock Improvement since violence in: Demand for products 3->4 -0.004 -0.008 -0.005 0.010 0.051 1.7 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.004 -0.051 -1.1 0.067 Infrastructure 3->4 -0.004 -0.009 -0.005 0.012 0.056 1.8 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.002 -0.035 -0.7 0.125 Employment 3->4 -0.003 -0.005 -0.003 0.007 0.032 1.2 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.005 -0.058 -1.3 0.080 Access to land 3->4 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.0 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.0 0.996 Housing 3->4 -0.002 -0.005 -0.003 0.007 0.034 1.1 0.002 0.003 0.007 0.010 -0.109 -2.3 0.011 Education 3->4 -0.005 -0.011 -0.005 0.014 0.065 2.5 -0.001 -0.001 -0.003 -0.004 0.033 0.8 0.504 Health care 3->4 -0.003 -0.006 -0.003 0.008 0.039 1.4 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.006 -0.066 -1.6 0.038 Safety 3->4 -0.002 -0.004 -0.002 0.005 0.028 1.2 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 0.020 0.6 0.859 Political participation 3->4 0.001 0.003 0.002 -0.004 -0.020 -0.7 -0.003 -0.005 -0.011 -0.014 0.132 2.8 0.006 Status in community 3->4 0.001 0.003 0.001 -0.003 -0.022 -0.5 -0.004 -0.005 -0.012 -0.016 0.148 2.3 0.027 Corrupation 1->2 -0.003 -0.007 -0.009 -0.001 0.133 6.1 -0.002 -0.003 -0.007 -0.009 0.088 2.6 0.257 Own-health 1->2 -0.006 -0.012 -0.014 0.000 0.163 5.2 -0.004 -0.006 -0.012 -0.014 0.162 3.3 0.994 Changed dwelling since violence 0->1 0.010 0.023 0.030 0.003 -0.135 -3.3 0.008 0.010 0.023 0.030 -0.292 -4.5 0.040 Housing destruction in violence 0->1 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.001 -0.074 -3.6 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 -0.023 -0.7 0.176 Livestock loss in violence 0->1 0.009 0.018 0.010 -0.024 -0.114 -3.4 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.004 -0.038 -0.7 0.221 Village lost livestock in violence 0->1 0.011 0.026 0.017 -0.033 -0.157 -3.2 0.003 0.004 0.009 0.012 -0.147 -1.9 0.909 Village classroom destruction in viol. MargEfct 0.035 0.073 0.040 -0.097 -0.458 -5.9 0.010 0.014 0.033 0.046 -0.389 -3.2 0.632 Economic Bank account in 1999 0->1 0.054 0.088 -0.002 -0.118 -0.600 -7.3 -0.006 -0.008 -0.021 -0.031 0.336 2.6 0.000 Per capita livestock in 1999 MargEfct 7.E-07 1.E-06 8.E-07 -2.E-06 -1.E-05 -3.8 -3.E-07 -5.E-07 -1.E-06 -2.E-06 2E-05 3.7 0.000 Basic HH Size (#) in 1999 MargEfct -0.002 -0.004 -0.002 0.005 0.022 3.1 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 -0.006 0.057 5.2 0.007 Share 0-6 in 1999 MargEfct -0.006 -0.013 -0.007 0.018 0.085 0.9 0.010 0.013 0.033 0.045 -0.479 -3.1 0.002 Share 7-14 in 1999 MargEfct 0.005 0.010 0.005 -0.013 -0.051 -0.5 0.002 0.003 0.008 0.010 -0.130 -0.8 0.697 Share 50plus in 1999 MargEfct -0.012 -0.025 -0.014 0.033 0.165 1.7 0.004 0.006 0.014 0.020 -0.222 -1.4 0.036 Male 0->1 -0.002 -0.004 -0.002 0.005 0.027 0.9 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 -0.006 0.062 1.3 0.544 Age MargEfct 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.2 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 -0.009 -1.1 0.414 Age square MargEfct 2.E-06 3.E-06 2.E-06 -4.E-06 -2.E-05 -0.4 -0.002 -0.003 -0.007 -0.009 0.000 0.9 0.341 Education in 1999 0->1 -0.003 -0.007 -0.009 0.000 0.010 0.8 -0.002 -0.003 -0.007 -0.009 0.092 4.4 0.001 Parental ecuation 0->1 0.002 0.005 0.003 -0.007 -0.033 -0.5 -0.003 -0.004 -0.009 -0.013 0.129 1.3 0.182 Social Mother Tetun 0->1 -0.005 -0.011 -0.007 0.014 0.058 0.9 -0.009 -0.014 -0.036 -0.056 0.545 5.2 0.683 Speaks Tetun 0->1 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 0.002 -0.013 -0.2 0.005 0.007 0.018 0.027 -0.261 -2.9 0.498 Speaks Portuguese 0->1 0.002 0.005 0.003 -0.007 -0.036 -0.6 -0.002 -0.002 -0.006 -0.008 0.090 1.0 0.288 Mother Bunak 0->1 -0.009 -0.020 -0.014 0.027 0.110 1.9 -0.002 -0.002 -0.005 -0.007 0.065 0.7 0.000 Mother Macasae 0->1 -0.013 -0.030 -0.021 0.039 0.191 3.3 -0.005 -0.007 -0.019 -0.028 0.265 2.9 0.022 Mother Mambae 0->1 -0.007 -0.014 -0.009 0.019 0.102 2.2 -0.004 -0.006 -0.014 -0.020 0.196 2.6 0.252 Community Sub-district capital 0->1 0.006 0.012 0.006 -0.016 -0.068 -1.4 0.007 0.009 0.020 0.026 -0.275 -3.7 0.019 District capital 0->1 0.040 0.069 0.006 -0.092 -0.448 -4.0 0.006 0.008 0.018 0.023 -0.213 -1.2 0.257 Other Urban 0->1 0.008 0.017 0.008 -0.023 -0.119 -1.6 0.003 0.005 0.011 0.014 -0.196 -1.7 0.572 Rural West 0->1 0.005 0.010 0.005 -0.013 -0.094 -1.3 0.014 0.017 0.037 0.044 -0.526 -4.6 0.002 Rural Center 0->1 0.023 0.046 0.017 -0.061 -0.297 -4.8 0.010 0.013 0.031 0.039 -0.441 -4.6 0.210 Rural East 0->1 0.021 0.041 0.014 -0.055 -0.252 -3.7 0.002 0.003 0.007 0.009 -0.114 -1.1 0.269 Constant -0.865 -1.2 1.822 1.6 7?