I I | U Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme Tunisia Energy Management Strategy in the Residential and Tertiary Sectors Report No. 146/92 JOINT UNDP / WORLD BANK ENERGY SECTOR MANAGEMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME (ESMAP) PURPOSE The Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme (ESMAP) was launched in 1983 to complement the Energy Assessment Programme, established three years earlier. ESMAP's original purpose was to implement key recommendations of the Energy Assessment reports and ensure that proposed investments in the energy sector represented the most efficient use of scarce domestic and external resources. In 1990, an international Commission addres Aed ESMAP's role for the 1990s and, noting the vital role of adequate and affordable energy in economic growth, concluded that the Programme should intensify its efforts to arsist developing countries to manage their energy sectors more effectively. The Commission also recommended that ESMAP concentrate on making long-term efforts in a smaller number of countries. The Commission's report was endorsed at ESMAP's November 1990 Annual Meeting and prompted an extensive reorganization and reorientation of the Programme. Today, ESMAP is conducting Energy Assessments, performing preinvestment and prefeasibility work, and providing institutional and policy advice in selected developing countries. Through these efforts, ESMAP aims to ar.ist governments, donors, and potential investors in identifying, funding, and implementing economically and environmentally sound energy strategies. GOVERNANCE AND OPERATIONS ESMAP is governed by a Consultative Group (ESMAP CG), composed of representatives of the UNDP and World Bank, the governments and institutions providing financial support, and representatives of the recipients of ESMAP's assistance. The ESMAP CG is chaired by the World Bank's Vice President, Operations and Sector Policy, and advised by a Technical Advisory Group (TAG) of independent energy experts that reviews the Programme's strategic agenda, its work program, and other issues. The Manager of ESMAP, who reports to the World Bank's Vice President, Operations and Sector Policy, administers the Programme. The Manager is assisted by a Secretariat, headed by an Executive Secretary, which supports the ESMAP CG and the TAG and is responsible for relations with the donors and for securing funding for the Programme's activities. The Manager directs ESMAP's two Divisions: The Strategy and Programs Division advises on selection of countries for assistance, carries out Energy Assessments, prepares relevant programs of technical assistance, and supports the Secretariat on funding issues. The Operations Division is responsible for formulation of subsectoral strategies, preinvestment work, institutional studies, technical assistance, and training within the framework of ESMAP's country assistance programs. FUNDING ESMAP is a cooperative effort supported by the World Bank, UNDP and other United Nations agencies, the European Community, Organization of American States (OAS), Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE), and countries including Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. FURTHER INFORMATION For further information or copies of completed ESMAP reports, contact: The Magager or The Executive Secretary ESMAP ESMAP Consultative Group The World Bank The World Bank 1818 H Street N.W. 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. U.S.A. TUNSA ENERGY MANAGEMENT STRATEGY IN THE RESDENTlL AND TERNARY SECTORS APRIL 1M2 EXCLANGE RATE In June 1989 US.$ 1 z 0.91 Tunisian Dinar (ID) ID 1 - 1000 mailimes CONVERSION FACrORS Petroleum Produts£ TSE/ton LPG 0.560 1.106 Kerosene 0.798 1.032 Gas oil 0.844 1.027 Domestic fuel ofl 0.846 1.017 ton/ 0 ine TOE/ '000 Agerian Natural Gas 0.656 0.9 Woodhits U=W TEfton Fueiwood (air dried) 0.8 0375 Charcoal. i 0.7 One m3 of cord-wood - 0.35 tori Carbonization effiiency - 20% by weight -:E/W Final Energ 86 Primaq Energy 283 ACRONYMS AME Energ Maragement Agency DEP Directorate for StudiesM Evaluation and Planning DER Renewable Energy Directorate DOE Energy General Directorate DGF General Directorate of Furests DURE Directorate for the Rational Use of Energy ESMAP Energy Sector Management Asistance Programme ETAP National Petroleum Company of Tuisa LPG Uquiried Petroleum Gas INNORPI National Institute for Standards and Industia Property INS National Institute for Statistics MA Ministty of Agrcture MEN Ministry of National Economy MP Miisty of Planning ONE National Energy Obsewvatory ONTF Tunisian National Office of Tourism UNDP United Nations Development Programme REF Forestry Development Administration SEME State Sectariat for Mines and Energ SNDP National Petroleum Distribution Company ST*G E3ectricity and Gas Company of Tunisia STIR Refining industries Company of Tunisia TIMCA Tunisian Union of Industry, Commerce and Artisans TABLE OF CONTENTS Pago No. EnCUTIV SUMMARY ...................................... ..... i Ihe Enerv Context ............... i . . . ......... I Demand Projections ................... ii Issues and Constraints of Energy Supplylin the Sectors ............ *. . o o . ......... . iii Strategy for Energy Management in the Residential and Tertiary Sectors ....................................... vi I. IlNrODUCrION ...... ......................................... I Overview .......................................................... 1 The Energ Situation . 9 999 9 99......................................... 2 Energy in the Ecooomy ......................................... 2 Energy Supply and Demand . .....................................9 3 Institutional Structure of the Energy Sector .......................... 4 Energy Policy ........................ .... ............. 4 The Residential and Tertiary Sectors ............ ........................ 6 Significance of the Sectors ....................................... 6 Need for an Energy Management Strategy ........................... 7 Stratesy for Energyr Management ...... ........................................ 8 Objectives and Expected Results ................................... 8 Coordination with Current Activities ............................... 8 U. CURRENT SITUATION OF ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND .............. 10 Enery Demnand ..................................................... 10 Residental Sector ............................................. 10 ALttltudes about Energy Use ....................................... 13 Energy Consumption and the Standard of Living ...................... 15 Household Appliances in Use .................................... 16 7he Tertir Sector ....................................................... 27 Structure of Demand ........................................... 28 Hotels and Restaurants ......................................... 29 Turldsh Baths ................................................. 30 Energy Supply .,,,,,,,. . ,,,,,,,,,,,,......... ............ ........... 31 Woodfuels ......................................................... 31 Forest"y Resources ............................................. 31 Availability of Wood for Fuel .................................... 32 Regulations and Enforcement ................................... 32 Production and Distribution Networka .............................. 33 Hydrocarbons ...................................................... 35 Natural Gas .......t........................ 35 LPG ........................................................ 36 Kerosene ........................................ ..... 38 Gas Oil .................... 0.0 4.0 .... 39 Pice Structure ........................ t..40.0 39 Electricity ......................................................... 40 Generation and Distribution ..................................... 40 Rate of Electrification .......................................... 41 Present Polg ................................................ 43 Renewable EnerDV ............ ...99999999999999999999999999 9eeeeevvv 44 M. PERSPECrI'dS ............. 45 A. Demand Pro jections.......... .................... 45 1'be Residential Sector .............. ......... 45 Te Tertiary Sector .................................... 47 B. Issues and Constaints of EnerV Suppl in the Sectors................. 49 'Woodfuels ........................ ...... .............. 50 Hydrocaeoons ................... ............... .. 52 Electricity ...................................... ..... 58 New and Renewable Energy ................................ 59 HouholdW Ap4 iUances ............ .............. ... 61 nstltaatiozalArrangements ................................. 63 IV. ENERGY MANAGEhIENTSTRATEGY IN THE RESIDENTIAL ANDTERTIARY SECTORS ......................................................... 66 Objectives ......................................................... 66 Strategy C4mponenAt .....................- .. .... 66 Co ntonts ............ 66 Rational Management of Wood Energ Resources .................... 67 Energ Conservation in the Residential and Tertiay Sectors ............. 67 Development of Kerosene, Natural Gas and Photovoltaics ..... .......... 68 Efficient Building Ddesp ........................................ 69 IlstitutionalStrenienng ...................................... 70 Regulatons, Taxes and Tariff ... ................................... 70 Isttut Fonal Pramework of Strateey ..... ............................... 71 E>pected Resuwts ....................................... 72 EconomicAnalysis ***..................... .......... 74 Inpacts ....................................*................ 77 Flnaicing . ........ .................................... 79 1.1 FinalE erV Bal an ce1987 ............................................. 7 2.1 ipecfic EnergyComuamption and Standard ofLivingin1984 .................. 15 2.2 Household ApplanceEquipment Owneship Rateinl984 ....... ............. 17 2.3 Cooking EquipmentEfidency ............................................ . 22 2.4 FinlEnerg Cons mptioninthe TetiatySector(1987) ...................... 28 2.5 Wood Price, CarcoaPrice ............................................ 34 2.6 PriemsofPetroleum Products ........................................... 40 2.7 Low Voltage Elecri ation 1987 ............. . .. .................... . 43 3.1 Forecast of Household Enerv Cmnsumption . ............. .. *..... . ...... . 46 3.2 Forecast ofFIna Ener Coswumptioninthe TertiySector .................. 49 3.3 Forecastof LPG Supply .................................................. 54 3.4 Forecas Required LPG Stordngand FlingCapacity ........................ 55 3.5 Exumplesof Naturd Gas Connecton Costs in the ResidentialSector ............ 57 4.1 Siniplfled Economic Analysi of the StateV ........ .............................. . 76 ANNEXES: I. ActionPrograms . .............................................. 80 II. Tunisia: Adminnstrive Dnsions ........................................ 106 I. Organization of unisda's Energy Sector .................................. 108 TV. Final Enery Consumption in the Reddential Sector . ........................ 109 V. Sales Summary of the Manufacturers of Household Appliances ...... ........... 113 VI. Final Energy Consumption of Hotels ............................................. 115 VII. Final Energy Consumption of Restaurants .. ............................... 116 VIII. Final Energy Consumption of Turkish Baths .......... ..................... 117 IX. LP and Kerosene Prices .............................................. 119 XC Forecast Population ............................................... 120 XM. Household Distribution per Level of Expenditure ........................... 121 XII. Population Distribution per Expenditure Category .......................... 124 MI. Consumption Trends of Other Petroleum Products .......................... 125 XIV. Sales of M, Kerosene and Electricity ................................... 129 XV. List of Equipment Suggested foi Custom Duty Reduction ......... ... ......... 130 XV.V Forecast Market of Main Cooking Fuels ............ ...................... 131 XV1I. Overview of Charcoal Production Parameters and Charcoal Production Cost ... ............................................ 132 XVII. Results from Tests with Gas, Kerosene, CharcoaL Wood Stoves ............ .... 134 XIX. Promotion of improved cooking equipment. Field results in the Kef region ................................................. 138 FIGUR1hS 1. Energy Consumption, by Soure, by End Use .............................. 12 2. Coolng Energy Source, by Area, by Region in 1984 ......................... 19 3. Household Equipment by area, by Region in 1984 ........ ................... 23 3b. Household Equipment by area, by region in 1989 .......................... 24 4. Rate of Electrification ..... . .42 SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS 1. Data Colection Trip Report, Stephen Tyler, August 1988 2. Solar Water Heating and Photovoltaic Evaluation Mission, Mike Crosettd March 1989 3. Distribution des Produits Petroliers en Tunisie, Slim Boujemaa, April 1989, and Notes Compldmentaires, June 1989 4. Ledure Soci&ogique du Comportement Mdnager Tunisen, Badra Bchir, May 19'it) 5. Etude sur la Condition des Charbonniers en Tunlsie, Badra Bchir, May 1989 6. L'Introduction des Foyers Amelior6s en Tunisfe, Badra Bchir and Ridha Boukraa, June 1989 7. Enqu6te des Fabricants d'Equipements Menagers, Nadia Bechraoui June 1989 8. Biomass Fuels in Tunisia, Hubert Stassen, June 1989 9. Bconorraies d'Electricit6 et Dhveloppement du Gaz Naturel dans les Secteurs Residentiel et Tetiie, Jean-Pierre Mehr, June 1989 10. EnerV Consunption in the Domestic and Teriary Sector, Paul Bummann, June 1989 11. Marketing Social et AM1, Ridha Bou2raa, June 1989 12. Enquete des Bains Turcs et Restaurants, Amel M`Rad, July 1989 13. Matrise de I!Energie dans les Secteurs Rdidentiel et Tertiaire. El6ments de Strat6gie, Gerard Madon, September 1989 EXECIVE SUMMARY 1. The present report constitutes the synthesis of the work conducted by a joint team of the Energy Management Agency (AME) and the World Bank/UNDP/Bilateral Aid Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) between July 1988 and July 1989, in the framework of the "Energy Efficiency in the Household and Service Sactor of Tunisia Study". The cost of the Study has been financed mainly by the Government of the Netherlands with additional financing from the French Trust Fund and the Canadian International Development Agency. 2. The report comprises four chapters. The introductory chapter contains an overview of the energy sector, focusing on she residential and tertiary sectors, and presents the justification, objectives and expected outputs of a strategy to deal with the main issues of these sectors. The second chapter is divided into two parts which descrbe respectively the characteristics of the demand and of the supply of energy in the residential and tertiary sectors; the contents of this chapter are not summarized in this section. in the third chapter, after defining the trends of energy demand in both sectors, the existing and anticipated issues and constraints are defined for each type of energy source. The final chapter contains the description of the recommended strategy to improve the situation in both sectors. A detailed presentation of seven action programs which constitute the strategy is given in Annex 1. 3. The report was completed in November 1990 and discussed with the Government of Tunisia in October 1991. The final version of the report, prepared in March 1992, includes complementary data supplied by the AME. -he Ener= Context 4. The energy sector's contnbution to economic growth remains considerable. However, the sector's importance has lessened, partly as a result of the chronic decline in oil prices, but also due to a stuctural reduction in the national energy surplus avabable for export. Tunisia's commercial energy situation is characterized by (a) a limited domestic resource base with recently stagnating hydrocarbons production, coupled with (b) sustained growth of consumption which, over time, will result in (c) Tunisia becoming a net energy importer before the year 2000. Also, locally produced woodfuels continue to play a major role in satisfying household eniergy needs and generating revenues in rumral areas 5. The public sector plays a dominant role in the institutional structure of Tunisia's energy sector. Tle private companies operating in the sector are mainly involved in exploration, production, transport and distribution of hydrocarbons. 6. The Government's approach for smoothing the transition from net energy exporter to net energ importer in the near future is based on three strategies: (a) improve hydrocarbon production and renew emphasis on exploration; (b) plan for energy supply over a long-term horizon; and (c) energy demand management. 7. The residential and tertiary sectors play an Important role in the energy balance: about one-third of final demand, almost all fuelwood and charcoal consumption and more than 40% of the total demand for electricty. The relative importance of the residential and tertiary setors in the aggregate demand for energy and the existing inefficiencies and constraints in both sectors (see the second chapter) justify the design and implementation of an energy management s.rategy. The Strategy will concentrate on four issues: (a) control and restriction of the extent of environmental damage linked with woodfuel consumption; (b) rationalization of investments for electric power generation; (c) promotion of the efficient use of ener8g sources; and (d) encouragement of substitution using least-cost energy resources. The strategy is consistent with Tunisia's overall energy sector policy and will also take into account and complement different ongoing activities in the sectors. emandp oJiestions 8. The trend for consumption of final energy in the residential sector estimated according to forecast demographics and economic growth and to current spedfic consumptions and percentage of users for each energy cource shows a growti rate (25%) slightly less than the population growth rate. Total demand thus will rise from the current 1 million TOE to more than 1.3 milion TOE/year by the year 2000. The demand for woodfuels is expected to grow at a moderate pace over the next decade, with annual growth rates probably decreasing towards a stabilized level of consumption. Given carbonization yields, the wood offtake should go from 1.9 milion tons/yea in 1987 to more than 2.2 million tons/year in 20001/. A more rapid growth rate is anticipated for hydrocarbons demand: at 4% p.a., demand wil reach 590,000 TOE/year by 2000, an increase of nearly 240,000 TOE over 1987 demand lectricity demand is expected to nearly double between 1987 and 2000, with an average annual growth rate of more than 5%. Finally, even though final demand for hydrocarbons and electridty in the residential sector will increase at a sustained pace for the next few years, the anticipated growth rates are significantly lower than those of the preceding decade. 1/ lTn. DOP Ceoimae of the Wood offake is much bgher, at 63 miono of m5 per year, which are eqalent to 4A milons of tong howee, data used in this report are obtained from a hp sample srvcy with actual niomeument of woodfuel co_aupmto and should therofore be reail aconaa - iii n 9. In the tertiary sector, tht lack of reliable data series and the uncertainty about the potential market of natural Bas and about present use of woodfuels, 2/ make difficult to generate reliable demand projectiona However, through partial projections for particular subsectors and/or fuels (e.g natual gas In the hotel sector, electricity, LPG and kerosene), it has been estimated that the demand for final energy in the tertiary sector probably will double in the net 15 years It could reach 370,000 TOE/year by the year 2000, with an average annual growth rate of 5.2%. hIis rate is sightly more than that of value added in the sector, which Implies that the energy intensity of the sector wdi continue to grow. Tertiary demand, equivalent to 20% of the energy demand in the residential sector in 1987, thus could correspond to 30% of residential demand in the year 2000. Lue and Constraints of Energy Suppl in the Sectors 10. Based on the characteristics of energy supply/demand in the sectors, existing and future issues and constraints can be identified at three levels: energ sources, end-use equipment and insdtutional aspectsp Woodfuels 11. Without acrate data concerning wood avabability and supply systems, it is difficUt at present X < stimate the actual impa of wood offtake will have on the Tuniian environment. AXo it is dificult to separate quantitatively the role of wood-energy production from the other causes of forest resource degradation, such as overgrazing, land clearing for agriculture purposes and fires, which usually play a dominant role in deforestation. The impact of wood-energy production will vary according to region: in the southern and central West parts of the country, forest resouc are generally in cient and at risk while the supply potential is sgnificantly greater than the local demand in the Sahel and the NorthwesL However, even in the latter regions, the offtake of wood to supply fuelwood and, especially, charcoal to the main cities could surpass the regenerative capacity of forest reserves. 12. The mechanism for monitoring and controlling woodfuel production are inefficient. In 1988, charcoal permits were granted for production of 37,000 tons, whereas estimated consumption was nearly triple (110,000 tons). Accounting for the different types of wood supply (State-marketed, exploitation under the system of user's domain, olive tree trimming) shows totl supply reaching only 1.45 million tons, which is 25% less dtan demand of 1.9 million tons in 1988. 13. -There are limited prospecs for improvements in the efficiency of wood or charcoal stoves and of carbonization techniques. Simple, Inexpensive improved cookstoves developed during the Study were not well accepted by consmers during tril tests, due to the p'or image of fuelwood 2/ lhe ImoMm an of wooedos in the teraWy senor Is hower radua dereasi these fues aread he orly a mihr uar of w sea"r oopdon, with 115% of Xh tol conmdon. l~ ~ ~ ~~~-v and the low incdence of fielwood.related expenditr in the households' budget. he carbonization yields obtained from the traditional earth kilns by TunisNis professional charcoal producers are very good for that tpe of technology, due to several fators: (a) the tcal know-how of the producers; (b) the relatively high stumpage value of wood; and (c) the tpes of wood most often used (nak and olive), which aronize well because of their high density and usaly low humidity level Trying to improve carbonization efficiency of non-professional producers would not be viable, for they are scattered and produce small quantities on a seasonal base and without pennit 14. Tho projected doubling of LPG imports over the next ton years wil increase existing congestion of Tunisia's ports, especially ff [PG continues to be ship in relatively small cargoes. Also, current shortages in existing storage and botdtig facities wM be aggravated and stocks wil be reduced far below legal requirements. 15. The price uctues of the main hdrorbons used in the residential and tertiary sectors show distortions between CIF, ex-refinery and retail prices, which give certain signals to consumers: (a) LPG is favored over kerosene in the residential sector, thus benefiting wealftier households; (b) the use of kerosene by certain tertiay sec establishments i favored over gas oil while kerosene use should be limited to households. 16. With an adequate promotion policy by SM1G, natural gas penetration has been sucl in the hotel sector, since an estimated 80% or more of all hotels are connected to the network in areas where gas is distrbutedL By contrs, naturl gs penetration Into the residential sector has encountered real difficlties: urban areas along the edsting pipeline include some 320,000 households, whereas the number of residential gas customers totaled about 35,000 and the rate of new connections is slowing dow. This is mainly due to the high costs of connection, internal piping and equipment conversion, compared to the relativly low expendiures on cooking and water heatig, and despite the dear financial advantage of natural Vas on LPG and kerosene for these enduses. 17. STEG already has achieved considerable progress in managing load growth (especially peak load) and reducing distribution losses. At present, STEG keeps close tabs on demand and is actively developing mechanisms for (a) tring peak demand, (b) projecting demand, and (c) managing demand tbrough incetives (taiffs, oonservation polices) or direct action (load sheddig by remote control during peak hours). As initiated by SIEG, a data bank covering electric household appliances should be created and sectoral load curves need to be established. .V. 18. Interconnected al electrification faces constait: more xt more than 250,000 households are not connected to the gt; most of these househodk are remote and scattered in rual areas, making dassic ele on not a viable optio By contrast, decentralized ytems uch as photovoltaics may offer a lat cost soludon for providing elcticity to thin consumes Now and Renewable E=er 19. Photovoltaic ysems could be used to supply low-lev electicity (lightin& radio, teevision) to scattered conmes lbe econoic viabBity of photoltaic sytem b higy sensitive to the daily load of the user. The potential market for thes systems, which also dependq on consumers' wilingess-to-pay, should be as_ based on the results of ongoig AME actties. 20. The market for solar water heaters is limited. New or, mn retrofit agar water heaters are not competitve with natural gs- or W-fueled water heaters. Comparisons with electric water heates are more faorable, which explains the substantidal penetrtion rate. Howeer, few households have electric water heaters. Current financial incentive policies by SIEG are well adapted. HIusehoa Applince 21. Locally produced household applians should be rdatvely efficient (since they are manufactred under License fiom foreig producen of good to hig fiiency eqipment) and unform standards have been devoped for specific appliances. However, av e testing eqipmet does not allow acwate ma nts, and as long as the ortifiction process to ensure conformity with standards does not operate, qualit guarantee remain limited. 22. The low p tvi of loca enterpises manubcting household appliances i translated into either high retail prices or poor fina l porm r ing incentive.s for inreased competition among firms is made dift by existing market limitations. The main problem remains the economic vbilit of industies opeating in a tight market 23. Even if good quality sericing of household appance is relatvy easy, Installers are not sufficiently regulated (eQecdll In the arisnal sector), so that technia qualifications re varable from one company to anodher. With dt development of elecicity and natural gas use, safety reqrements for instations are strongl neede In addition, there is no controlig procedu for veriing internal tutional ArraneMn 24. There is a lack of adequate and reiabe data bases and of codination among ornations in the sectors hese defciencies bring about diffiultie in esablihn sectoral enerw balances and planning strtegies and investments. .vi - 25. There are no uniform standards for several types of household appliances and although certification is underway for the others, no certificate verifying conformity with standards has been granted, as there are no laboratories with the appropriate testing facilities. 26. Building construction is also affected by inadequate regulation and standardization. Construction is subject to several technical regulations, mainly affecting safety and material quality, but at present there are no thermal regulations. 27. Despite the existing legislation on mandatory energy audits, only a handful of the required audits have been carried out in the tertiary sector. In addition, the financial incentives offered by the AME have not had the anticipated effect: few energy conservation investments have been realized, which require significant external expenditures for the establishment. The most important energy management activity achieved in the tertiary sector thus remains the conversion to natural gas. 28. There is a lack of innovative financing mechanisms to encourage: (i) the paricipation of energy service firms and the private sector d.rough third party financing, with shared-savings contracts and government support; and (ii) utility financing programs (loans, rebates) provided an adtquate regulatory framework and flexible tariffs are established to allow recover the costs of such programs. 29. Constraints also affect communication activities, such as publicity campaigns undertaken by the AME. Social marketing and use of modem communication methods are still new in Tunisia. In addition, the target audiences still are not well known and might not receive intended messages. =trateiy for energy manageMent in the residential and tertiary sectors Objectives 30. In order to taclde the above problems and constraints, the Strategy should pursue the following specific objectives: (a) better management of wood resources, by reducing unmonitored exploitation, conserving wood where possible and necessary, and rationally developing resources wherever potential is sufficient; (b) conserve hydrocarbons and electricity by encouraging the use of more efficient energy appliances and distnbution systems; (c) encourage use of substitution fuels which are most economic for both the consumer and the public at large, In order to slow dmnd for higher cost fues; (d) limit beating and air conditioning requirements in bulding; and, (e) strengthen AME capacity for statiscal data coilectiig and prwseing in the reidential nad terdary sectors tamteg COnXpnen 31. In order to achieve the objectives outlined above, several strateDy elements are proposed around the following seven action programs: (a) rational management of wood energy resources, (b) energy conservation in the residential sector; (c) energy conservation in the tertiary sector, (d) development of kerosene for cooking; (e) development of natural as In the residential and tertary sectors; (f) iding desig adapted to the cimate; and (g) insdtutional support. Detailed descripti of the programs are given in Annex 1. 32E Ration Mularea ent of Wood Enerv Resource, The strategic options for rational ent of wood energ resources are: (a) improve regulation (indluding tenurial aspects) and the existing fiscal system, and strengthen control of charcod production and marketing to better monitor charcoal supl. Forestry exploitation thus wil be encouraged in areas where wood potential is most favorable and offtake limited to the real regenerative capty of the resource. In the zones that are the most at risk, reforestation actions would probably alo be needed; (b) study the feasibility of nserving wood used in cooldng tabouna bread and in certain tertiary activities such as Moorish baths; and (c) study the market for modern wood-fired appliances in order to improve fuelwood's image, faciitate rational exploitation of local wood resources in areas where it is abundant (North West and Sahel regions), and slow substution by imported energy. 33. En0 Uy ervation h the Re al and Triar The strategy elements of the action plan for energy conation in the sectors are: (a) set up a regulation and certification system to guarantee energy efficiency of household appliances and instlations, including taining and licensing of installers, and to inform and zake consumers and merchants aware of the specific consumption of the appliamces that they purchse or sell; and (b) strengthen and spport the program contrac procedure with implementing agencies 4.. in order to stimulate energy consevation Investments In new establishments of the riay sector. 34. TMh of KeMen Na Qo no strategy elements to develop use of more cost-effective substitution eergy sources are: (a) develop and market modem kerosn cookers whih offer greater convenience and energ efficienc so as to reduce swtching to Imported LPG; (b) Implement additional incendve mearees and provide customers with greater information to encourage natural gas penetration in the residential and tertiary sectors, in the fiamework of STGEGs ongoing program; (c) pursue ongoing programs and projects for solar water heaters and assess the market of decentralied photovoltaic systems. 35. Effiien Bukiding Do-ai The program to reduce heating and cooling requirements for buildings has four components: bio-climatic urbanism, design specifications or codes, material elecion, and desig of enera equipment. Main activities include: research on conditions for comfort and on desi rules, secfiation of standards and labeg methods for buildings and heating/coolig equipment, as well as desig and di nion of technical documents for professionals. lietutional "enn 36. Institutional support for AME is planned as the sventh component of the strategy for an adequate coordination between the components of the StrategW and a better nding of energy uage patterns in the sector The support main comprs implemetation of a data base, complementar survey of the residential and tertiar sectors, and monitoring and possible reorientation of the different action programs. Taning on the above aspects will be supplied to AME staff involved in the implementation of the srateg8s components. R=dad ITe and larif 37. R=dAdnz MN and Sti &31s. Implementation of standard for household appliances wi encourage manu s to monitor dosely quality control and equipment performance, provided inspections by desgated agencies and certifiation procedures are carried out scrupulously. lTe program for efficient buldig design wi also provide regulatory measures in the form of specifications or ceficadon seals uwed to dassify new and disting buildings according to their adaptation to the dlimate. Measuring building 'adaptablt will allow to: (a) define rules to be proposed to contraors and the conditions for issing cetioficaon seals that would include acoess to certain benefits; (b) develop training and research modules; and (c) desipg information brochures for implementing agencies. Certificaon seals should be based on lkown technical principles: aligment and orientation, protection from solar radiation or-on the contraly to its judicious use during the winter, wal insation, use of passive thermal wafll, window design, use of natural ventlation, etc. The rules and their application should be understood by desiers and by users. 38. Taxes ad Through enhanced dialogue between manufacturers and the Government, hower, an agreement should be negotiated with some of the manufacturers which would allow appliances to be marketed at prices lower than current retail prices, with guarantees for quality, reliabiity and energ efficiency. In return, the Government would parially exempt taxes on various parts and appliances, implement necessay standards and assist in promotion campaigns. Also, taxes and customs duties could be differentiated by energy tpe or technology for a specific usage to promote the most efficient equipment. As for pricing policy for domestic fuels, current distortions should be lifted to progressivel reflect economic costs, especially for LPG and kerosene. Imitutional ErmMewof £the StraIMfl 39. The AME will be responsible for coordiatig the overall energy management sategy for the residential and tertiary setrs and for supevising the implementation of five of the si programs of the strategy. The programs for the rational management of wood energy and the development of natural gas wil be handed by the DGF and STEG respcively. he proposed strtey is consistent with the current energy sector policYs objective for rational utiztion of energy and most of the proposed activities of the Stratea complement ongoing actions. pected Results 40. The main epected resuls of the Strateg would be: (a) reduction of unmonitored exploitaton of wood resources, thus limiting the degradation of naturl forest formations (b) design and implementation of projcct for promoting improved tabouna and disseminaing modern improwed wood-fired appliances; (c) after five years, saving corresponding to 1% of final energy consumption In households riative to current consmpton, equivalent to 6000 TOE/year by 1996; (d) after five years, savinpg Corondi to 5% of final energy consumption in the tertiary sector relative to current cmpin, equivalent to about 12,000 TOE/year by 1996. (e) In 1996, an annual increase of about 30,000 consumers uing kerosene for cooking In substittion for LPG, equivalent to reducing annual LPO imports by almost 5,000 TOE; (f) In the short term, the addition of SO00 new natural gas customers in the residential sedor and strengthened gas penetration in ttiary establshments; (g) continuation of the progrssive penetradon of the market for electric water heaters by solar water heaters; (h) market assessment of individual photovoltaic systems for electification of dipersed rural sites and, if justified, desin and implementation of a project to encourage use of these systems. (i) a 20% to 30% improvement in energy efficiency for new buildings, equivalent to annual savings of about 3,000 TOE in primary energy by 1996; 41. Expected levels of enery savings in the residential tertiary and building sector have been evaluated by the consumltt team based on the dcareristics of exsting equipment and establishments, the estimated bebaviors and decisions of manufacturer and users/owners, the stucture and capacity of the AME and experience and results of energy management agencies in other countries (e.g France). Economic AnabM 42. Total implementation cost for the strategy amount to about TD 3.8 million over five years (US$S42 million), 41% of whih is dated for the tertiay sector energ conservation program alone (see Tabte 4.1 and AMc1). Sgtly over a third of the total sum would be used to finance studies and technical asistance, one-fourth for investments, one-fifth for training and information and one-fifth for pesonnel and operation costs. hi total sum includes US$735,000 for national cost (personnel and operating costs). 43. Expected energy saving are estimated to total more than 32,000 TOE/year in primar enery by 1996, with cumulative saving of more than 62,000 TOE over the period 1991- 1995. In addition, there will be an economic benefit due to use of kerosene instead of LPG. In total implementation of the proposed strategy should generate an annual cash saving for the country whic wiM reach TID 2.9 million per year by 1996 (US$ 32 mmiion). The NPV is estimated at about m 0.6 million for that period, with an EIRR of return of 22-. Also, yearly benefits wM exend far after the end of the Prtoec IThe component with higher NPV is by far the program for energV savigs in the tertiary sector, followed by the program for energy savings in the residential sedor and the program for kerosene promotion for oookI -xi - 44. The strateg also has positive economic and social impacts, mainly on the environment, the quality of living in households, and employment. It is difficult to quantify these additional benefits, however. 45. While the Government should fimance the costs of personnel and operation (DT0.7 million over five years), external funding should be sought after for the rest of the costs (about DT3.1 million) including foreign and local expenditure. Risks 46. The main risks of the recommended strategy are related to actual consumer's responses and efficiency of implementation. Anticipated savings could be optimistic and the rate of penetration of energy saving measures could also be too high. However, even with a decrease of 50% in yearly annual savings, the strategy is still economically sound, on a longer evaluation period though: the NPV of the Strategy would equal 0 after about 65 years. 47. Variations in international prices of petroleum products, such as the ones observed since August 1990, will benefit to the Strategy, since higher prices will mean higher benefits in absolute terms. Also, it is reasonable to assume that the current difference between the economic costs of LPG and kerosene on one hand, and between the costs of LPG and natural gas or the other hand, would not vary significantly (i.e. absolute costs would vary in parallel), which maintains the favorable prospects for the penetration of natural gas and, to a lesser extent, kerosene in the residential and tertiary sectors, provided the current distortions in the retail prices are eliminated. 48. If the components of the Strategy were undertaken separately, they should be classified according to their economic rentability and risk probability. The probability-weighed NPV could be used for that purpose. In a first approximation, with the same risk probability for all components, the component with higher NPV is by far the program for energy savings in the tertiary sector, followed by the program for energy savings in the residential sector and the program for kerosene promotion for cooking (see Table 4.2) Financing 49. Most components of the strategy are ready for immediate implementation as soon as funds are avaiable. Several donors are presently contributing to project financing in the residential and tertiary energy sectors, such as GTZ, CIDA, the EC, France, and some of these could support follow-up investments; their interest in funding part or all of the strategy's components should be assessed by the Government of Tunisia. This could be achieved through preliminary contacts of relevant donors by the AME and the organization of a one-day seminar to officially present the strategy to the donor community, relevant constitutions and the private sector. After obtaining the necessary funding, the AME should prepare a detailed wrork program and implementation plan for each financed component of the Strategy. Mt larnoafa r1*frg of th strategy's progrm Proarm TOTAL COST MNV aim (XIOOO 0t) (Xiooo 0T) X Woodfusl mnemnt 160 n.a. n.a. Rosidmntfat wmngy conw'vatfon 70 190 . 29 Tertlary wtrgy oanerv:Ion 1,550 731 '47 xroeen pemtion 44S 62 1S NltIt gas pr otfon n.a n.a n. Bufidfng design 495 2 12 Inititutifamt strw4thenip 375 n.a. n.a. Ovor tI Strategy 3,75 594 22 I INTRODUCTION 1.1 The present report constitutes the synthesis of the work conducted by a joint team of the Energy Management Agency (AME) and the World Bank/UNDP/Bilateral Aid Energ Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) between July 1988 and July 1989, in the framework of the "Energy Efficiency in the Household and Service Sector of Tunisia Study". The cost of the Study has been financed mainly by the Government of the Netherlands with additional financing from the French Trust Fund and the Canadian International Development Agency. After preparatoly work between July 1988 and January 1989, the main mission of the Study was carried out between Februaty and July 1989. The AME team was supevised by Messrs Mounir Majdoub of the National Energy Observatory (ONE) and Nabil Meddeb of the Directorate of Studies, Evaluation and Planaing (DEP); it included Ms. Amel M'Rad, task manager, and Ms. Nadia Bechraoui Messrs Sadok Maherzi and Naceur Ben Hadj, as weli as staff from the Directorate of Energy Conservation (DURE) and the Directorate of Renewable Energy (DER), also contributed to the Study. The ESMAP consultant team was coordinated by Mr. G6rard Madon, energy economist, responsible for preparing the final report; it comprised Ms. Bchir, sociologist, and MessM. Ridha Boukraa, marketing specalist, Slim Boujemaa, petroleum product specialist, Paul Bussmann cooking equipment specialist, Mike Crosetti, photovoltaic specialist (ESMAP), Jean- Pierre Mehr, energy conservation specialist, Hubert Stassen, biomass and charcoal production spedali and Stephen Tyler, data collection specialist. The total number of consultants' time amounted to 11 expert-months. Overall supervsion was performed by Mr. Philippe Durand (ESMAP), who prepared the final version of this report Secretarial assistance and report production seriices were provided by Mmes. Patricia Biggs, Yeshi Gonfa, Pamela Sawhney and Linda Walker-Adigwe. 1.2 This introduction contains an overview of the energy sector, focussing on the residential and tertiary sectors, and presents the justification, objectives and exected outputs of a strategy to deal with the inain issues of these sectors. The second chapter is divided into two parts which descnrbe respectively the characteristics of the demand and of the supply of energy in the residential and tertiary sectors. In the third chapter, after defining the trends of energy demand in both sectors, the existing and anticipated issues and constraints are defined for each type of energy source. lhe final chapter contains the description of the recommended strategy to improve the situation in both sectors. A detailed presentation of seven action programs which constitute the strategy is given in Anne 1. 13 The report was completed in November 1990 and discussed with the Government in October 1991. The final version of the report, prepared in March 1992, includes complementary data supplied by the AME concerning the results of household surveys conducted by STEG and the INS in 1989, the findings of AME in promoting efficient or alternative household equipment, the financial cost of alternative cooking fuels, and other aspet 1.4 Tunisia covers a surface area of approimately 164,000 km' and is situated between Liya and Algeria along the African coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It is divided into seven administrative regions, each of which has three or four subdivisions known as "governoratese (Amiez -2 1.he two southern-most regions, which are largely deser ocupy more than half the national territory. 15 Ihe coastal areas are distinguished by their Mediterranean climate, whereas an arid or semi-arid cimate dominates in the rest of the country. While average temperatures vary between 14 and 22 degrees C, the difference between the daily high and low can be quite large, and the seasonal variations are substantial. Winter temperatures frequently fall below 0 degreea C in the north, where snowfalls are not uncommon in the elevated regions of the northwest. In summer, temperatures in the north reach 40 degrees C, and they often exceed 45 degrees C in the south. 1.6 TunisIa's population of about 7.9 millions (1989) is distrbuted unevenly throughout the country. The most densely populated regions are those in the North - especially the region of Tunis, with over 500 inhabitants per ka2 - and the Central East. In the South, however, population density is only about 10 inhabitants per kmh. More than 55% of the population lives in urban areas: there are currently more than 15 cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants and a total of 170 centers have been clasified as urban. Between 1975 and 1984, the urban population grew at a rate of 3.2% per annum (p.a.), versus 1.8% p.a. for rural populations and a national average of 2.5% p.a., which has slightly decreased to 2.4% p.a. during the period 1984-1989 (nex 2). However, despite the large development of urban areas, nearly one quarter of the population is still rural. 1.7 Nearly one-third of the active population works in the agricultural sector, even though only 3% of the country's arable land is irrigated. With the exception of the oasis in the south, most agricultural production is concentrated in the Tell and along the coasts and is subject to large fluctuations in annual rainfalL Cultivation of fruit trees is widespread, with olive oil, dates and almonds generating the main receipts from export of food products (along with fishing products). 1.8 During the period from 1971 to 1984, the Tunisian economy grew at an accelerated pace, with an average growth rate of 7% p.a. Growth was fueled by the combination of an extensive public investment program together with favorable terms for foreign trade, particulary in petroleum. At the beginning of the 1980's, the pace of economic development eased considerably, with annual growth averaging only 3.4% p.a. between 1982 and 1988. Detrimental terms of trade for Tlnisia's main petroleum products were the principal force suppressing economic growth: the international petroleum markets at the time suffered several sudden and sharp price drops, the effects of which were often amplified in Tunisia by a declining exchange rate for the US dollar. The Energy Situation Energy in the Economy 1.9 The energy sector's contribution to economic growth remains considerable. However, the sector's importance has lessened, partly as a result of the chronic decline in oil prices, but also due to a structural reduction in the national energy surplus avaiable for export. 1.10 The value added by petroleum products and electricity accounted for 9.7% of GDP and 28.2% of gross industrial output in 1988, as compared with an average 11.5% and 32% .3. respciely between 1982 and 1986. Although net energx exports was only 3.1% of total non. energy exports in 1988, petroleum revenues still accounted for 16.7% of the daste's current revenues. Tho magitude of this figure, which represented an inreas of 2.3 points over 1986 levels, essentially can be attrbuted to the incrase In domestic energy prioes. 1.11 Lcally produced woodfuels continue to play a major role in sat*ing household energ needs. Fuebwood is consmed primarily in rural areas and is rarely the object of commercial transacions. By contrast, charcoal trading probably generates annual sales of more than TD 20 million. Thus, revenues from wood sold for charcoal production are likely to constitute a non- negligibAe portion of the income of numerous local residents in rural production zones. EDNe Supp A Dom d 1.12 In the absence of historical data documenting the availability of wood and the consumption of woodfuels, detailed analysis of Tunisia's energW supply and demand wil be limited to non-biomass resources of energy. Tunisia's commerecl energy situation is characterized by (a) a limited domestic resource base with recently stagnating hydrocarbons production, coupled with (b) sustained growth of consumption which, over time, will result in (c) Tunisia becoming a net eerW importer before the year 2000. 1.13 Lited ResourceBase. Between 1970 and 1987, total production of primary energy (ecluding woodfuels), 91% of which was crude oil, developed at an annual pace of 1.6%, rising from 4.3 to 5.6 milion TOE. In 1987, nearly 88% of all crude oil and natural gas production came from Tunis two principal oil fields: El Borma and Ashtart. The balance (12%) combined prduction from about a dozen other small fields. Domesticay produced primary energy is used for generating electric power and as feedstock for the local refinety. The refinery, whose current nominal capacity is 15 million tons per annum (tpa), will be eWpanded to 3 million tpa in the near future. Surplus energy production, an estimated 4.4 milion TOE in 1987, is exported. 1.14 Susained Gwth of Consumpton. Sustained growth of total consumption of primaly energ between 1970 and 1980 was followed by a period of slower growth at the beginning of the 1980's. Total consumption had tripled between 1970 and 1980, but only increased by a third (3 to 4 million TOE) during 1982-1987, an average rate of 5.9% p.a At the same time, the structure of demand underwent a sight modificaton: Before 1972, petoleum products accounted for essentiadll all of commercial energy demand. Then, several industries, including electric power plants in the south, partially substitted petroleum with natural gas following installation of the infasruur to accompany gas recovery at El Bonma, which began in 1973. With the commissioning of the transcontinental gas pipeline between Algeria and Ital in 1983, the share of natural gas in total primary energy consumption again increased, from 14% in 1983 to 33% in 1984. 1.15 DOW of SW*W =dB Acording to the summary report "Energy 20010 produced by the Secrtariat of State for Mines and Energ (SEME), the amount of surplus primary energy vich is eported annually has decreased continuously since 1970. Ihis diminution has been espqially pronounced since the beginning the 1980'W, as production has slowed while consumption continued to grow rapidly. IThe energy surplus thus has dropped from 3.07 million TOE in 1980 to 1.6 million TOE in 1987, a decrease of 10% pa. A continuation of this trend .4 would produce an energy deft in the short term, projected to reach 4 millon TOE by the year 2001. With a drgos policy for renewed hydroon exploration and production, It could be deaused to 25 million TOE. Thus, even with major efforts for enerVy management and nservaton, Tuni Is expected to become a net enervy importer during the 1990's. 1.16 lhe public sector plays a dominant role in the Intitutlonal scure of Tunisia's energ sector. The private companies operating in the sector are mainW involved in eploration, productin, wort and dstribution of ydrocrbons. he main organition charts for the sector are shown in 3A3. 1.17 Primay responsibility for the energy sector rest with the Ministy of National Eco0nomy (N), which Includes the Cabinet and the cental administration, notably the Energy General Directorate (DOE). The pricipal public and parasttal organizations within the sector include: (a) the Entreprise Tunisienne d'Activids P6trolires (National Petroleum Company of Tnisia - ETAP), which markets crude oil and petroleum products, (b) the Soci Tunisienne de lElectricit6 et du Gaz (Eleicity and Gas Company of Tunia - STEG), whih generates and ditibutes electric power, and oversees sales of natural gas, (c) the Socie6 Tunienne des Industnies de Raffina (Refining Industries Company of Tunisa - STIR), which refies crude oil and sells refined products to disn'bution companies, (d) the Societ Nationale de Distribution des Petroles (Nadonal Petroleum Distrbution Compan - SNDP), which contributes to the distiumtion of ptoleum products, and (e) the Agence de Matrise de PEnergie (Energ Managent Agecy AME), which is responsible for the implementation of the venment's energ management and comervation policy. 1.18 The exploitation, transformation and distnbution of fuelwood and charcoal are monitred by the Foresty General Directorate (DOF) and the Forety Development Administran (REF) wihin the Ministy of Aiutre (MA). However, none of the other instions of the enera sector has any service pecalized in the woodfuel subsector. It is notable, for eample, that the energy balances established by the DOE or AME often do not include biomaszs forms of energy. hng l 1.19 The Govenment's approach for smoothing the transition from net energy exporter to net enrg Importer in the near hfture is based on thre strategies (a) improve hydrocarbon production and renew emphas on exploraion; (b) plan for enery suly over a long-term horiz; .5- and (c) energy demand management. 1.20 IMeming lydroerbgn±o.4duidon. Improving the recovery rates at fields already in production is seen as a first step towards enhancing hydrocarbon production. Production could be increased by an additional 15 million tons with major investments The second point of attack would be development of marginal fields, which hold a total of 35 million tons in recoverable reserves, more than two-thirds natural gas. Foreign investments in exploration of new fields has been on the decline since the oil price drops in the mid-1980's, due in part to Tunisia's relatively modest geological potential. However, the Government has adopted exploration promotion measures to increase investments, specially in deep well driling and natural gas exploration. 1.21 Ea= Sup. EIannin& The Government's objectives in planning the energy supply over a long-term horizon are to diversify the energy resource base and to promote alternatives to energy supply. Potential 'new" energy resources are coaL nuclaar energy and, to a lesser degree, renewable energy. Use ef coal could be considered for the medium- to long-term. However, it could not be introduced effectively without improvements to the infrastructure and impifmentation of environmental protection measures. It would be premature to introduce the nuclear option at this stage, given the associated tecinical constraints on Tunisia's power grid, environmental problems and the usualy large capacity of typical nuclear power plants. Use of renewable energy, although expected to remain modest through to the year 2001 1/, will depend on technological innovation - as well as cost reductions - and have implications for energy conservation efforts and development of local industry. Given these considerations, it can be assumed that the national energy supply in 2001 still would be based mainly on hydrocarbons, with natural gas representing a larger share. 1.22 Ener= Demand Management. Finally, with the creation of the AME at the end of 1985, the Government sought to revise its longstanding poliy of managing only energ procurement and supply. AME, whose goal is to rationalize energy use, is identifying and administering specific measures which wil lead to efective implementation of the National Energy Conservation Program (NECP), within the framework of the energy conservation law. The NECP has three principle components: (a) regulatory measures including mandatory audits in the commercial and industrial sectors, and energy equipment normalition and certification; (b) promotional and decision-making assistance; and, (c) taining and enhancing public awareness. 1.23 The status, mandate and instruments of the AME have been strengthened and developed through the law enacted in July 1990. The AME is transformed into a public enterp.rise with industrial and commercial status and a number of fiscal benefits. A full panoply of incentive measures is now in place to encourage energy efficiency investments, mainly in the industry and tertiary sectors, including subsidizing the cost of audits, subsidizing demonstration operations, VAT exemption, targeted soft loans, minimum customs duty, accelerated depreciaticn. The law also creates the Observatoire National de l'Energie (ONE) in charge of collecting, processing and disseminating data on the energy sector. I/ Mbistuy of Mines and Energy, -Energie 2001. Rapport do ynthse," December 1968. .6- neRSUeLti and tiay Sectons 1.24 By deition, the residential sector includes all uses of energ by households, ecept fuel for tnspot and energ consumed in agricultural and small craft activities. Still, it Is often dcult to diasciate the energ demand of some small crafts aevities from the re of household energ demand. The terty sector is often defined by default and Includes all activities which cannot strictly be grouped under other ener Wages (mining, industay, small crafts, households, tranot). The tertiary swctor indludes the hotel/restaurant industry; commercial establishments (formal or informal); tive buildings; hospitals; schools and universities; both private and public sector offices concerned with social welfare, cultural and recreational activities; and public lighting Sincen of the Sectors 1.25 Using avaiable statistics, an enery balance based on final demand 2/ for 1987 is presented in Table 1.. The energy balance dearly shows the relative importance of the residential and tertday sectors: (a) About one-third (33%) offinal demand, approIately 12 milion TOE, is accounted for by the two sectors. The residential sector alone represents more than one-fourth of total demand. (b) Almost all fuewood and charcoal (more thn 95%) is consumed in the household and tertiary sectoM Households alone consume an estimated 90% of the totaL (c) The household and tertiar sectors represent ap ate 43% of the total demand for delricity. (d) Only a relatively small share of the final consumption of petrolem products (less than 20%) and natural gas (less than 15%) are used in the household and tertiary secto. 2/ Ecftd any nn.er wnmptdon of enew mourA (c*b, bume and lckan) .7. Tabti 1,1: FINAL ENERGY BALANCE 1987 (fn Thousands of TOE) Petroltem Natural seetor Electrfcity Products Gas Bi0ases Total Indu.try 152 893 178 1,223 35% Transport 885 885 25X Residential 65 341 13 530 949 27% Tertiary 62 110 19 25 216 6X Agrfculture 15 182 10 'S7 6 Total 294 2,411 210 565 3,480 100% 8% 69% a 16% 100l gqurme: National Energy Balance, 198?, AKE. 1.26 The residential and tertiaiy sectors are chiefly consumers of primary fuels. While electricity represents only 11% of the total final demand of both sectors, annual consumption of natural gas and petroleum-based fuels (LPG, kerosene, gas oil, domestic fuel oil .nd, in small quantities, light and heavy fuel oil) is about 520,000 TOE. Woodfuel consumption is at about the same level (555,000 TOE). 1.27 Consumption of electric power in the two sectors remains rdatively moderate, but it is similar to levels observed in other countries at the same level of development. The share of electicity in Tunisia's total energ demand in all sectors (about 8%) matches that of other North Afican and in Southeast Asia countries with similar GDPs. Nevertheless, the figures presented in Table 1.1 indicate only final energy. The corresponding primary eneigy requirement for total production of electric power totals more than 1 million TOE, or more than 20% of total demand for primary energy of all forms In terms of primary energy, electricity demand in the residential and tertiary sectors thus accounts for more than 9% of the country's consumption. 1.28 The above consumption and trends obserfed in the residential and terary sectors are confirmed by the data on the consumption of commercial fuels (excluding biomass) prepared by the ONE for 1990 (see Annex 4). The household and tertiary sectors still represent 43% of the total demand for electricity, which grew at about 5% p.a. in these sectors on the period 1984-1989. While the participation of the sectors in the total consumption of petroleum products only increased slightly between 1984 (19%) and 1989 (21%), the demand for these products has almost doubled in the tertiary sector alone. Finaly the increase of gas consumption is noteworthy: total gas consumption increased at about 11% p.a. during the period 1984-1989 but this increas reached 38% p.a. in the residential sector alone (where total consumption has tripled), while consumption remained almost constant in the tertiary sector. Need for an Energy Management Strategy 129 The relative importance of the residential and tertiary sectors in the aggregate demand for energy and the existing inefficendes and constraints in both sectors (see the second -8- chapter) justify the design and implementation of an enery management strategy. The Strategy will concentrate on four issues: (a) control and restriction of the extent of environmental damage linked with woodfuel consumption; (b) rationalization of investments for electric power generation; (c) promotion of the efficient use of energy sources; and (d) encouragement of substitution using least-cost energy resources. 130 Mitigating the Risks of Environment Desgration. Tunisia has little in the way of forest resources for woodfuel production, with the exception of small enclaves in the northwest and the central east. Under these conditions, any undue pressure on wood resources represents several dangers to the environment: erosion, decrease of natural regeneration, reduction of the water table, changing hydrological patterns, etc. Ever consious of these threats, the Government has attempted over the past twenty years to reduce wood consumption for enerVy purposes, in particular by strengthening forest"y and charcoal production regulations and by using pricing policy to promote the use of kerosene and LPG as woodfuel substitutes. However, fuelwood and charcoal consumed annually in the residential and tertiary sectors still represent nearly 990,000 TOE (33 million m3 of wood), taking into account the low yield of carbonization techniques. l/ Although there are no precise statistics for evaluating the impact of this offtake, the threat of deforestation most likely will continue in some areas. Monitoring the consumption of woodfuels and managing the exploitation of forest resources are thus, without a doubt, a primary necessity. 131 Rationalization of Investments for Power Generation. Investments for electric power generation weigh as heavily on Tunisia's balance of payments as do actual energy imports. 4/ These investments weigh even heavier especially as the peak load becomes more pronounced or the load factor declines. The load factor (or "coefficient d'utilisation according to STEG's definition), has improved appreciably in recent years, primarily due to tariff policies which encourage off-peak consumption. The current load factor (64.5%) compares favorably with international standards. Nonetheless, as explained in Chapter 2, the rapid growth in consumption among certain consumer classes, especially during peak hours, can contribute to a decrease in the load factor. It would be necessary therefore to adopt a policy for managing electric power loads. 132 Efficient Us of e=W As for electricity demand, it is important to note that almost all of Tunisia's electricity is thermally generated. Since 1984, heavy fuel oil used as feedstock in power stations has been supplanted in large part by natural gas, most of which is supplied by the transcontinental gas pipeline. This conversion has reduced generation costs and left supply less subject to fluctuations in petroleum prices. However, the market value of natural gas most likely will remain at high levels indexed to oil prices (fuel oil). Thus, the need to conserve natural gas is as important as the need to conserve petroleum products. 133 Encouragement of Substitution. The promotion of natural s and kerosene as substitute fuels is desirable on economic and financial grounds (see Chapter 2). Conversion to 3/ On aveas Ikg ofwood Is neeted to prdcIe kge of charca (svenee eficiof 40% in ener terms and 20% on a weiht basis). 1 hwes in the decity subecor are urentlyTD 40 to 5D mi{on anmualy. Imports for power ifrastructure accownt for 6% to 7% of adl equ ent i s and 1% of total hports The fuel costs for generatng dectricity curently is about TD 50 mIon (2.2% of total 0ports in 1988). 9. natural gs is already widespread in the tertiary sector and includes most hotels In areas with gs service. It is anticiated that other large establishments, such as hospitals, wil undergo conversion shortly. By contrast, there i only minor penetration of natural gas In the residential sector, where it would substitute for LPG used in cooking and water heating and for gas oil used in houses equipped with central heating. lhe use of kerosene for cooking purposes as a partial substitute for wood and LPG would yield financial and socidal benefits for households. Finally, this substitution potential is of particula interest since the energy sources which would be replaced are in short supply, espeially LPG, which is primarily supplied through imports. try for EmD in the Residential and Tertialy $Se QXq&mc § and Eg&d Rets 1.34 The energy management strategy for the residential and tertiary sectors should encompass the following development objectives: (a) adhieve rational development of local energy resources and reduction of the costs associated with importing petroleum products; (b) contribute to environmental protection; (c) provide the best service at least cost to Tunisian households by miimizing (i) ivestment and maintenance eapenditures for household appliances and (ii) energy ependitures as a share of the fami budget (d) enable public and private esblshments in the tertiary sector to provide the consumer with the best service or products whie miniizing their production costs through the rational use of energy. 135 The anticipated outcomes of the strategy once it has been implmented include: (a) improved management of wood energy resources; (b) gnicant savings in hydrocarbons and elecricity consumption; (c) development of enery resources which are less cosy for both the consumer and the general economy, and (d) institutional strengthening in the areas of follow-up activities, planning and capacity of intervention in the sectors. Coordinaton with Cufnt e 136 The development objectives of the strategy are consistent with Tuniss overal energy sector policy, as summarized above. Implementadon of the strtegy wil also take into acoount and complement different ongoing activities in the sectors, as described below. 137 An energy conservation program was launched in 1987 with World Bank assisnce (Energy Conservation Demonstration Project, Li2735-TUN); audits were performed for about one hundred enterprises in three sectors (industry, tranwport and tertiay); as a follow-up action, the 10 - proposed Ener Conservation and Diversfication Project is under preparation. Several other energV conseration activities which target the resiential and tertiary sectors are being implemented with tfie assistance of various donor In the area of wood resources, the Forestry General D to is implementing a forestry development project with assistance from FAO and financing by the World Bank (US$ 20 milion). The project components indlude imprwoved forey mana_ement and the creation of plantations of rapid growth species. An addidonal 2.9 mMion mn of wood for fuel wil be produced during the 40 year span of the project Renewable enery is also the subject of a number of activities, in part'zular the Special Energy Program (PSE) conducted by the AME with tehia and financial assistance from the Federal Republbc of Germany. This program covers solar water heaters and photovoltaic sytems. Finally, several sudies are underway to eamine thermal apects in homes and other building; in particar a regionial, C-funded study on Thermal Analyis and Efficient Building Design in the Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco and Tlnisa) has been launched recently and focusses on four main themes: (i) dimate data collection and evaluation of comport conditions; (ii) review of building techniques and materials; (iii) preparation of building design software; and (iv) definition of a building thermal regulation and prepration of demonstration projects; funding has been obtained for the activities of the first two themes, which have started. - 11-. IL CURRENT SrrUATION OF ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND Enrg Demand Residential Sector 2.1 The energy demand of the residential sector has been the subject of very few in- depth studies. Furthermore, existing data are incomplete due to the absence of reliable historical series. The only information available prior to 1984 comes from general population surveys conducted periodically by the National Statistics Institute (INS). 5/ The MEN initiated a domestic energy survey in 1984, which was divided in two phases. STEG conducted the first stage, interviewing households with electricity (3312 homes), and the second stage was conducted by ETAP and AME on a reduced sample of households without electricity (273 homes). In the same year, a third survey covering a sample of 1259 households was completed as part of a doctoral thesis. 6/ 2.2 The results of two important surveys became available after the completion of the fist draft of this report: (i) the survey conducted in 1989 by STEG among 2,800 households with electricity (see Annex 4 for a table summarizing the energy consumption of households with electricity, by end-use and sourc. of energy); and (ii) the Population and Employment National Survey conducted by the INS, also in 1989. These surveys confirm the penetration of gas for cooking in the residential sector (LPG mainly and natural gas to a lesser extent), the sharp increase in electricity consumption (close to 10% per year in the residential sector for the period 1984- 1989) and in the rates of household equipment in electric appliances, the decrease in the use of kerosene for cooking and the decrease of unit consumptions of electricity equipment (related with the purchase of new smaller equipment by medium to low-income households and with the xpansion of rural electrification in low-consumption households). Because of the lack of disaggregation of INS data and due to the fact that STEG data concern only households with electricity and were made available only in a summarized form, it has not been possible to fully update the detailed tables on consumption per end-use and source of energy, nor the corresponding forecasts. However, the results of these two surveys have been used to qualify the text whenever necessary and possible. 23 On the basis of the INS' statistics and the results of the 1984 surveys, a preliminary mnergy demand balance was established for the residentil sector by usage and by principal sources of energy (Eisur.e1 and &waieA). The balance underscores four major characteristics of final energy consumption in households: (a) Cooking - i.e. preparing meals and baking bread, as well as preparing tea - represents nearly three-fourths of final energy consumption. / lmhese includS gnen census, housohold budget and cwsmptin suny, and populadon/employment ulveysL fL/ La demande drieleo dansle secteur sdastiel en Tiso: Anayse soclo-Eoonomique del pratiques 6me ques a par& d'une enquke, Samr Amos and Azedine Ouergb 1986 -12- (b) Woodfuels account for about 60% of the energy used to satisfy household demand. (c) LPG and kerosene are also important and contribute equally to the energy balance, together representing about one-third of the final energy consumed. (d) The use of electrical appliances in households is well developed, accounting for more than half of residential electricity consmption. 2.4 The data available from the INS and the 1984 surveys allow for an initial analysis of energy demand. Additional data to substantiate and complete the analysis were obtained through interviews conducted by the project sociologist -with consumers in Tunis and in the Northwest and Central-East (Sahel) regions, as well as by a survey of household appliance manufacturers and merchants completed by AME for the project. The main results are presented below in tenns of (a) household attitudes about enery use, (b) equipment rates and types of household appliances in use, and (c) correlation between energy consumption and standard of living PIGUIR! 1.' FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION RESIDENTIAL SECTOR 1984 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR 1984 47% 5 _i | 1 ~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~74%5 a Others Eleot. applian 4% 3% LPG ~~~~~~Electricity Lighting 17% ~~~~~~~%7% Charooal Water heating Kerosene 11% 7X Keroeene 11% ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Space heating 16% 9% BY SOURCE BY END USE Source: INS, STEG, AMOUS, MISSION - 14 - Attitudes About Ene Use 2.5 Types of Ener=y Usage. There is a wide diversity of attitudes about energy use in Tunisian households. The diversity of uses is reflected in consumption-related behavior which ranges from energy-wasting practices to daily energy-conservation efforts. Also, households have recourse to a variety of energy sources, which range from straw and olive pits to electricity and natural gas; and to a range of household appliances, including the most rudimentary, such as the three-stone stove fired by fuelwood, and the most sophisticated, such as central heating systems or central air conditioning. 2.6 Attitudes towards energy colsumption depend on many parameters with varying importance. Two which appear to be major determinants are wealth and the level of education. parameters usually linked to the households' socio-professional profile. The choice to use a specific type of energy source or household appliance is highly dependent on purchasing power: in urban areas, wood generaLly is used only by households at or below the poverty level; LPG replaces kerosene for cooking as soon as income permits; also, only the wealthiest households are equipped with fuel-oil-fired central heating. However, education level tempers the choice and influences the consumption attitude: solar water heating is increasingly popular among those employed in upper management; simiarly, the energy efficiency of a household appliance is a parameter of choice only among well-educated consumers. 2.7 Wealth and level of education alone do not explain energy consumption attitudes, however. The availability of specific energy resources, the urban/rural milieu and the climate also can have determining roles. The influence of these parameters on energy consumption was apparent in the surveys cited above. For instance, wood is widely used in rural areas, in part because it is easily found there, but also because there has not yet been a break with tradition, as is often the case in the cities. Also, the Sahelian peasant naturally will tend to use wood because of free and constant access to it when pruning or replacing olive trees. As for the climate, it is quite obvious that heating and cooling needs are not the same in the elevated areas of the Northwest, along the coast, or in the hot South areas. 2.8 The interaction of wealth and education level is reflected in the different social grr,ups by characteristics such as: lifestyles, the number and kinds of appliances, culinary habits, modes of space and water heating. A typology of energy attitudes in Tunisian households was developed on this basis. This classfication contains several different groups ranging from large consumers .- users of electricity, natural gas, gas oil or domestic fuel oil, some of whom waste energy because they are over-equipped with sophisticated household appliances - to the 'energy poor", for whom energy is in short supply. The latter are limited to consuming only the indispensable minimum energy needed to satisfy their priority needs and are totally dependent on woodfuels. 2.9 Thus, the population can be roughly separated in five relatively homogenous levels: (a) Level 1: householdswith intermittent or low incomes. Although composed primarily of households in the agricultural sector (farmers and agricultural workers), this group also includes the most impoverished inhabitants of urban and peri-urban areas. Their housing is substandard (Cgourbi?, or shanties), and they generally own no or few household appliances. - 15 - (b) Level 2: households with modest, but regular, Incomes. These are principally workers' households. The quality of housing is slightly better than for level one, and households are likely to own a television set. (c) Level 3: middle-lass households with several wage earners. Office workers, crftmen and small merchants are included in this class. They often lve in Arab- style housing (Odar") and, in addition to a television set, own a refrigerator and a few other appliances. (d) Level 4: high-income, relatively well-off households. Middle and upper management professionals are found in this level. Housing is usually of good quality - villa or apartment - and rather well equipped with electrical appliances, including those for space and water heating. (e) Level 5: households with a vety high standard of living and vety high incomes. In addition to upper management professionals, this category mainly includes successl merchants and entrepreneurs. They lve in luxurious homes which have an assortment of under or inefficiently utilized household equipment, including central heating and air-conditioning. 2.10 Main Consmum Trends. Despite the diveity of attitudes concerning energy, there appear to be two main trends in energy consumption. These trends hold across regions and in both urban and rural areas, regardless of the wealth or education of the consumer, and neither is a phenomenon limited particularly to the energy sector. (i) consumers search for increased convenience and (ii) attraction for modernism. The manner in which these trends manifest themselves depends on the standard of living and the purchasing power of the householda In terms Of domestic energy, this translates into (a) substitution between sources of energy and (b) an mrease n the =emnt_ates of household appliances, which both effectively increase the energy consumption per household. 2.11 Substitution trends have been a characteristic of Tunisiass energy scenario for the past two decades. For example, although there are no time series data for the residential sector, the substitution process for cooking is abundant illustrated by the evolution of petroleum products sales: wood is progressively replaced by kerosene and, maily, LPG. Use of kerosene lamps is tapering off in favor of electricity. Figures illustrating these phenomena are presented in the third chapter. 2.12 Clearly the Government's explicit policy has provided incentives for substitution: regulatory framework for forestry exploitation, development of transport and distrbution infrasre for electricity and natural gas, pricing incentives (for the kerosene and LPG), etc. Nevertheless, the poliqy has be r successifl only because it corresponds to the entrenched desire among consumers to have the c. est, most convenient and up-to-date energy sources. Wood is without a doubt the first victim tM this desire. Today, it is considered a fuel of the past, the fuel of the poor, or the fuel to use when there is no other alternative. - 16 - 2.13 Along with substitution, the desire for convenience and modernity leads to the acquisition of new household appliances. Thus, annual sales of television sets have soared, more than doubling in quantity between 1977 and 1985. Refrigerator sales are equally on the rise. Appliances which were previously little known, such as washing machines, are also enjoying growing success. Summary data illustrating these consumption trends are presented below. Ene Consumption and the Standard of Living 2.14 Among the above described different factors determining attitudes towards energ use, the 1984 sunveys uncovered certain correlations between specific energy consumption and the household's standard of living Table 2.1 which is based on the results of one of these surveys, illustrates these differences in terms of type of energy consumed and specific consumption for each of the five consumer classes described above. Table 2.t: SPECIFIC ENERGY CONSUNPTION AND STANDARD OF LIVING IN 1984 Natural Fuel Standard of Living * ood Charcoal Kerosene LPG Gas Electricity Diesel Oil USING HOUSEHOLDS: (In X of households fn mentioned area) Rural Area: ** Level 1 (40%) 81X 40X 89M 38% 16S Level 2 (40%) 81X 62% 84% 70X 29% Level 3 (17%) 68% 78X 64% 89X 56% Urban Area: ** Level 1 (08%) 35% 77% 83% 63% 58X Level 2 (26%) 23% 76% 63% 83% 83% Level 3 (328) 7% 72% 50% 93% 2% 96X Level 4 (23%) 35% 41% 89% 5% 99X 2% Level S (12X) 24% 35% 86X 14% 100% 14% 4% SPECIFIC CONSUDPTION: (in koe/using household/year) Rural Areas Level 1 1058 155 164 122 21 Level 2 756 140 166 130 25 Level 3 634 166 175 139 47 Urban Area: Level 1 579 116 160 114 18 Level 2 360 141 177 139 39 Level 3 353 136 141 159 343 59 Level 4 92 133 195 399 102 Level 5 92 250 237 439 173 1334 1029 * For population distribution along the different categories of standard of living, se Anmees 11 and 12. ** Distribution of population: Rural 45%; Urben 55%. Souree: S. Amous and A. Ouerghl, 1986, with consimptIan numbers adjusted to conversfon rates chosen by the mission. . 17- The folowinsg obervationii can be made: (a) Use of wood and kerosene declines as the standard of living increases. These fuels are associated with poverty, rural lifestyies and/or the past; the consumer switches to other fuels as soon as his purchasing power permits. Use of space heating b limited to the more prosperous uban households. (b) By contrast, dcarcoa is used mainly in urban areas, and less is consumed as the standard of living increases. In rural areas, charcoal remais a luwry and is used mainly by wealthier households for a well-anchored Tunisian tradition, the tea prepation. (c) LPG is the source of enerw whikh has best penetrated the different levels of both urban and rural populations, save the poorest rural dwellers. It is noteworthy that specific consumption of LPG practically doubles among more affluent citizens in relation to the lower levels, probably due to use of water heaters. (d) Only the wealthiest households have access to natural gas, gas oil and, above all, domestic fuel oiL (e) Specific consumption of electrichity increases very rapidly as the standard of lhing iwreases: consumption nearly doubles when rural households at level one are compared to those at level three, and it increases by a factor of ten in urban households when the poorest households are compared with the most affluent. Huehod iQgglSoq in Use 2.15 urrrent information on the equipment rates of household appliances in Tunisan households dates from the 1984 surveys and the information often differs from onb survey to another. Average rates at national level were obtained through the Amous/Ouerghi survey and are gven in Table 2.2. These figures show that certain appliances already have largely penetrated in the domestic market, such as LPG cookers in more than 70% of households, televisions in nearly 60% and referato in more than 30%. By contrast, other appliances are not yet widely in use, although there is potential for rapidly increasing their level of penetration. (a) Cooves 2.16 Th Habit le culnaty habits of Tunisian families vary according to socio- economicclas In most cases, two hot meals are prepared daily. The prfiipal and most widely served dish is couswous, which is composed of a basc grain (wheat semolina) and a sauce whose ingredients (vegetales, meat and spices) vary according to the seasons and the household's purcasing power. Preparation requires a specal cooker which is very energy efficient. 2/ Bread is also a reglar part of evety meaL In cities, bakeries have displaced the traditional bakig process v Preaon hnvoe a doubbofler tMp ookwer, where the semolna is temed in a peforted pan which eo on top of the main p04 used to boWl wat and make the sa Thus much of the enerw value of the eam is - 18 - using a domestic oven caled a "tabouna, which Is stil widespread in rural areas. The tabouna is pre-heated, then the bread, formed into little cakes, is put in it and baked in less than 10 minutes. Tabte 2.2 HOUSENOLD APPLIANCE EQUIPMENT OWNERSHIP RATE IN 1984 (National avrages) Matural Diesel End-use Wood a? Charcoal Ele¢. bY Gas LPG Kercsene Fuel-Oil Cooking: Cookers nd Stoms 2X 73K 27X n3 stones" 15X Tabounh 54X Canoun 48K Lighting 63X 8X 37X Televfsion 57% Refrigerator 32X Water heater 5% 1X 7% Space hoater g/ 2K 3X 13X 1X Alr-condftioning 1K Washing mach1ne 8X avIncluding other biomass; Wlncluding car batteries (televisions); g/Excluding wood & charcoal. Source: S. Amots and A. Ouergh1, 1986. 2.17 CookingEm& The main cooldng fuels are LPO, currently the most consmed fuel (55% of households at national level), and to a lesser extent kerosene and woodfuels, which are used by practicaly all the remaining households in almost equal proportions (18% and 16%, respectively). Natural gas and electricity are still not commonly used for cooking, even in urban areas. The situation is not uniform throughout the country, however, as indicated by Figure 2, which shows the penetration of prinpal cooking fuels in Tunisian households according to urban/rural areas and by region. A/ Thus, even though LPG is the number one fuel in all regions, it remains essentially an urban fuel, as more than half of rural households (59%) continue to use wood or kerosene. Woodfuels have practially disappeared from use in the area surrounding Tunis, but are still a factor in the Central-West, the Northwest, and the Central-EasL FinaLly, natural gas is also an important fuel in areas served by pipeline. Finally, throughout the country, tabouna bread is prepared exclusively with small fuelwood, straw or other biomass. e 2.18 The results of the surve6 conducted by the INS in 1989 show a sharp decline in the use of woodfuels and kerosene for cooking, whih have been substituted by LPG mainly. Thus, between 1984 and 1989 the percentage of households cooking with kerosene and woodfuels decreased from 17.2% to 8.0%, and 15.2% to 8.6% respectively, while households cooking with LPG (predominant fuel), natural gas and electricity increased from 67.6% to 83.4%. In rural areas the percentage of households cooking with woodfuels and kerosene has dropped to 20.2% and 12.5% respctively in 1989. fi/ The prhipal fuel is the enerp resource most often ued in a household which ues more than one eneW resource. - 19 - Figure 2: COOKING ENERGY SOURCE By area In 1984 % of householda 70% r0%. 40% - . ............... .................. ......I........................................... o*- . ................I............. ........I............................................ .~~~~X 90 % - . ............. .......... ....... .... .... . .... ............................. 10% ........ TOTAL URBAN RURAL - Nat as,/Elo E9 Blomass 1 Petroleum LPQ By region In 1984 % of hous*holds 200 20s TUNIS N-f N-W C-E C-W SOUTH - Biomas s 1 Petroleum E.: Nat Gas/El** LPG Sour8 INS -20. 2.19 g q inUsu The gas cookstoves avalable on the Tunisian market are produced localy by three large manufacturers According to the results of the Study survey, as psnted in A. this market currently has annual sales of between 80,000 and 100,000 appliances. The market is split betwe gas ranges, usuy equpped with an oven, and hot plates; there are slightly more sales of the latter. The consumer can choose among a large variety of models, with pries ranging from a little more than TD 10 for agas ring, to more than TD 400 for a deluxe gas range with four burners. The latter are manuctured under foreign (mainly European) licensig agreements. 2.20 By contrast, there are only two types of kerosene stoves offered on the market: the 'babour de liue and the Obabour-6conomique". Differentiated only by their burners, both are Prunus brand pressure stoves which are made locally. There is little difference in the retail prices, reWectivel TD 13 and T1D 12. Since used babours can be bought for TD 7 from small spedalized repair shops, it is difficult to ascertain the extent of the market. Disadvantages associated with babour use include: diffuL-ty in lighting and regulating the fire, poor stability, tedious maintenance, and mediocre product quaity. 221 There are no manufatured fuehwood cookstoves in Tunisia, which may explain in part the bad image associated with this fueL Households which cook with fuelwood use "three- stone' stoves. This rudimentaly solution has a number of disadvantages: poor fuel efficiency, cooking on the floor, bad stability of pots, smoke, etc. By contrast, the wood-fired "tabouna" used for baking bread is composed of a clay sheath made by craftmen and is similar to ovens (tannurs) found in a number of other countries (Pakistan, Yemen, India). 2.22 With the exception of grilled foods, charcoal is not used for cooking per se, but mainly for preparing Tunisan tea. Different types of charcoal stoves (ocanoun') are available, including the widey used day canoun and the metal canoun, which is found almost exlusively around the city of Sfax The former sell at prices of 300 to 800 millimes depending on the size; the latter are much more pensive, at 1200 to 1500 millimes. The day canoun is a simple bowl-shaped pot with no air circulation, which makes ignition diffcult and slows combustion, though the latter is desirable in the tea-making process. The metal canoun is more sophisticated: it has a grill and a door which respectively facilitate and control air circulation. 2.23 maal Ef i@n of Equipment None of the cookstves currently in use had been tested for thermal efficiency. Controlled cooldng and boiling tests undertaken during the project allow initial comparisons between the different models avaiable on the market as well as models imported or manubctured for the Study (Superior kerosene stave; Ghana improved charcoal stove; multi-pan woodstove). The results of these tests, presented in Table 2.3, are summarized by the following observations: (a) Since cooking with kerosene is less costly to the consumer, substitution by LPG most likely is governed mainly by the desire to use a more convenient and modem fueL (b) Paradll, use of fuelwood appears to be the most burdensome, although rural users collect it themselves and it is thus free. -21- (c) LPG staves and cookers in Tunisia perform according to European standards, with an efficiency of 50% to 60%. (d) It is sutprising that metal canouns are not used outside the Sfax region, as their performance clearly is superior to that of the clay canoun. The higher price of the metal canoun may partially account for this. It is more likely that the small impact of tea preparation expenditure on total household budget does not lend itself to concern for fuel efficiency. 2.24 The fuel efficiency of the tabouna was also tested. The results show that about 2.2 kg of wood are used for each kilogram of bread produced, which is consistent with specific consumptions measured in the ESMAP/Yemen Arab Republic Household Fuel Marketing Study (2.7 kg/wood/kg of bread for a clay tannur). This corresponds to a consumption of 50 MJ/kg of bread, more than ten times that of the three-stone stove, which measured 4 MI/kg during the controlled cooking tests. The tabouna thus appears to be very inefficient. It should be noted that charcoal amounting to about 5% of the weight of wood used is recovered at the end of the baking ycle. This tabouna charcoal probably accounts for part of rural charcoal consumption. 225 Since the end of this Study's field work, the AME has started field testing of several models of improved stoves for cooking meals or for the preparation of traditional bread, ie. tabouna and tajine (see a summary of tests results in Annex 19). These tests have been conducted mainly in the Kef region, in the framework of the GTZ supported Special Energy Program (PSE). Several promising products have been identified, including the LPG-fueled Moroccan oven for Tabouna preparation (with an efficiency of 22%), the L;PG-fueled aluminium oven for Tajine preparation (efficiency of 27%), the waste-fueled improved traditional Tabouna oven (for which fiurther improvement of efficiency and cost is still needed, however). On the other hand, these tests have shown the very low acceptance of the 'Superiore gasoline-fueled stove (for safety reasons) and the lack of prospects for improving the efficiency of traditional wood-fueled Ocanoune for Tajine bread preparation. .22 - IEbte 3: COOKING EUlPNIFI EfFFIIENCY Cost per Fuel Standard Cost Estimated Thermal CotwAtion N.at / Equipmnt Life spa EqIPmnt Fuel Efficiency W (kg) (mfll ie.o) (diners) (years) Cooker LPG 46 to SS 0.15 - 0.18 37 to 10 7 Plate LPG U to 58 0.12 30 12 to 60 5 Babour Kerosen 42 to 468 0.14 28 15 5 3 stoui stove Wood IS to 21X 1.36 68 free clay Canom Chercoal 9 to lO 0.76 266 0.3 to 0.8 2 NataWl I Caro Chrmcoal 14 to i1 0.S9 206 1.2 to 1.5 2 Superior Kerosene 6 to 54X O.1S 30 15 5 Ghana odel cChrcoal 14 to lJX 0.56 19S 2 2 Nuttipan Wood 23 to 3OX 1.12 56 1.8 1 M/ According to boiling test. y Fuel conawption from controlled cooking test for a standard couscous mel (Skg). I/ Fuel cost per standard meal with following 1909 prices: LPG a 246millimes/kg kerosene * 160 mfilimas/It wood a 50 mtllie8/kg (urban retail price In the.northern part of the country) charcoal u 350 mlt tIas/kg (Tunis) nQ: Nissoin tests. - 23 - Figure 3: HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT By area in 1984 % of houMbohs 60%- e0*- . ~~~~....... . ..... 0% TUN181A URBAN RURAL Oar El Rfrlgratbr T Tlvlor by region in 1984 % of houwbhldd /~~~~~~~~~~~.......................... - -------E -- .................................................... 400% 100% - 20% 0% TUN18 N-E NW C-E C-W SOUTH MCar ES9 Rofralrator T *bivisor So.ro. INS o ~ ~~ ~~ ~~~ ... .. .... I-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~A O0 I ..3 * C e.e* . v. 3t ..i .::.., w 2 §. L. 3 I- a e | 1''EF' s M: s cis ° o £ S * | s s S s s t StSStSS*of*t z~~~~~~~~~~~~u .25- 2.26 Costs to the consumers. The resuts presented in Table 2.3 eplain the observed 3ubstitution of kerosene with LPG for cooldng When using the cheaper LPG plate, a household has about the same daily eapenditure 2/ (32-34 mlllimes) as when using a kerosene Babour or Superior stove; however, more expensive LPG plates or LPG cookers represent a sigifcntly higher daily expenditure (estimated at 46 and 73 millimes respectively). New retafl prices of kerosene and LPG effective since February 1991 do not change the terms of this comparison, aince they have increased almost by the same proportion in relation with 1989 (15%). However, if the existing distortion in the price of LPG was removed (see paragraph 337), the financial cost of using LPG for cooking, even with the cheaper plate, would be more than 30% higher than the cost of using kerosene. (b) Eletri Applince 2.27 According to STEG's 1984 survey, lighting accounts for the lagest share of household electricity demand (31%), the rest being divided among different electric household appliances. Table 2.2 presents statistics on the average number of appliances per household in 1984, whereas regional and urban/rural variations -often quite substantial for specific appliances- -are presented in Figure 3. Both the resuts of the Study surey of local manucturers and the sales data shown in Annex 5 give an indication of the number of large appliance purchases in recent years: television sets represent between 40 and 50% of the sales, reigerators/freezers about 40%, washing machines 10% to 15% and, far behind with less than 5% of sales, water heaters, space heaters and air conditioners. Other electric household appliances (radios and radio-cassette players, washing machines, irons, etc.), which have lower energy requirements, are not examined in this report 2.28 Lighting is predominanty achieved with incandescent lamps Results of the 1989 STEG survey show that these lamps represent alnost 88% of the total stock for lighting (including lusters), while 12% of the stock are fluorescent tubes The only local lighting manuctrer produces mainly incandescnt bulbs His operations at present are quite modest and he has been unable to obtain erfication of his products in conformity with Tunisan standards. Fluorescent tubes and fluo-compact lamps are imported. The Institut National de la Normalisation et de la Propriete Industrielle (INNORPI) has an ongoing cerfication program for ballast of fluorescent tubes including quality and performance. 2.29 According to the INS, the market for television sets increased by about 10% p. x between 1980 and 1984. The latter year saw record sales of 125,000 sets; since then, the market has been in slight recession, probably due to market saturation. The market today probably is between 50,000 and 70,000 sets per year (nna S), furnished xlusively by local production. European, South Korean and other foreign brand models are assembled under likensing agreements. The average power requirements of televisions sold on the market is 80 W. 230 The market for refrigrators and freezers also grew at a strong rate of 14% p.a. between 1980 and 1984; acording to the results of the 1989 SEO survey this rate has even increased to almost 18% p.a on the period 1984.1989. At present, the annual market is estimated at 50,000 to 60,000 appliances (prmariy refrirators). There are very few imports, as these are v With a inea deprciaon of equipmn cost, two meals per day and 19 ue and equipnm pc. -26 - subject to extreme1y high customs duties. Locally manufactured appliances are assembled from locally-made and Imported parts: the former mclude sheet metal, paints, molds for the outer doors and bins; the latter mainly motors and compressors Different brands are distrbuted under foreign (mainly Italian) licensing agreements. The least expensive models, which cost TD 350 to TID 400, already are priced quite high in comparison with average purhasing power. However, most models sel for around TD 800. Uniform standards have been adopted for refrigerators, and a certification process is underway for the principal manufacturers. JO/ 2.31 The market for washing machines has developed quite rapidly, with sales doubling in ftree years Today, the annual market amounts to between 20,000 and 25,00 machines, three- quarters of which have small load capacities (less than 2.5 kg). The market is equally divided between imported and locally manufactured models. A certification program is underway. 2.32 . Television sets, refrigerators/freezers and washing machines are manufactured locally using the same parts and conforming to the same standards as those in the countries which grant the licensing agreements. Quality control also is based closely on the controls exercised in the licensors' factories. Power requirements and average electricity consumption are identical to those required for European models. Thus, it can be assumed that the level of quality maintained to date is due primarily to the fact that the appliances are exact replicas of those currently manufawtured in Europe, right down to quality checks required by the licensor. () WtDer HeaterLs 2.33 According to the 1984 surveys, only a small number of households have water heating (less than 15%, see Table 2.1), mainly urban households. Other households use their cookstoves to heat water. Between 15,000 and 20,000 gas water heaters, the most widely used type of appliance, are purchased annually. Almost all of these are manucred in Tunisia. The basic modeL a 10 I/mn gas heater which consumes 1.5 kg of gas per hour and heats water to 650C, costs TID 200, with an additional installation fee ranging from TI 30 to TD 40. Average consumption, based on one to two hours use dafly, is equivalent to one 13-kg bottle of LPG each month; a bottle costs TD 3.5. Tbere are no uniform safety standards for gas water heater technology, so technical quality varies. However, the technologies used generally are those approved in European countries with the strictest standar. Therefore, safety and enerv efficiency often are superior to imports not belonging in 'major brands'. 2.34 The current market for electri water heaters shows no tendency for growth In fact, the annual sales have stagnated at less than 5,000 heaters, mostly of local manufacture. This is due in part to recent changes in STEG's policy. Initially, STEG provided tariff incentives for use of electric water heaters; STEG has dropped these benefits, and now favors the use of solar water heaters with electric backup. 2.35 Currently, 7,000 solar water heaters with electric backup are in use, with constucion of about 7,000 me of new units each year. The market is not very developed, due mainly to the v mplementaon of certficatn procedurs ha be dead un ORPI ha fdHie to perform s ow tr tests for reftor these we Scheduld for tation I 1. -27- relatively high price of equipment and installation. As a result, the impact of solar water heaters on peak electricity load In winter remains limited and has not yet been measured. Concerning regupatoty aspects, the INNORPI has drawn up uniform standards for solar water heaters. (d) Heating and Air Conditioning 2.36 About 20,000 to 30,000 space heaters are sold annualy. Kerosene and natural gas radiators are the most commonly purchased heaters, with about 35% of the market respectively. V'ail heaters and radiators fueled by LPG and fuel oil radiators represent the next largest market shares.. Most of these different appliances are manufactured locally. Some models are imported (fueled principally by natural gas and LPG), but these might not offer the same guarantees of performance and quality as localy produced models. Electric space heating is little developed. There are no uniform standards at present for space heaters Finally, central heating is not yet commonly used. 2.37 Air conditioning is not often found in homes. The annual market of less than 3000 air conditioning units is divided fairly evenly between single wall/window units and split systems. Most air conditioners are manufactured localy under a licensing agreement with an Italian firm. There is no mechanism for ensuring that the appliances have acceptable levels of energy efficiency. Ihere are also some Imports. At present, there are no uniform standards for air conditioning units. ne Tertigar Secto 2.38 Energy demand in the tertiary sector is even less known tian that of the residential secor. This is partially because the tertiaiy sector is rather heterogeneous in terms of economic activities, energy uses, and tps of building uses. Data from the only survey of the tertiary sector, initiated by the MEN in 1985,11/ is not very representative, as survey samples were too small. 239 It is difficult to gather accurate data for the sector. Energy producers and distributors do not systematically keep records which correspond with the consumer categories in the tertiary sector. Statistics concerning buildings and, more generally, concerning factors affecting energy demand (surface areas, volumes, existing building stock by category, existing heating and air conditioning equipment, etc.) are dispersed. Published INS statistics funiish some elements, such as number of nights in hotels, school enrollments and teacher populations, and the capacity of hospitals with more than 100 beds. Statistics on newly constucted buildings are available from construction permits filed at the municipal leveL Unfortunately, they are not centralized and therefore there is no information on construction rates of new buildings. Information is most scarce for office buildings, commercial establishments and private sector services. 2.40 Analysi of the structure of demand is based on the limited number of audits performed to date and on additional data resulting from a survey of Moorish baths and restaurants 11/ Chiff et analyses de la co o d6nerge des badments du seceur tera," Inday, Dahr} and Mddob, Janua 1985. -28 - carried out during the Study. The enert demand balance for the sector, excluding woodfuels, is presented in Table 2.4. The table shows (a) the dominance of gs oi and electricity in the breakdown by tpe of energ (b) the prominence of the hotel/restaurant industry, which represents nearly 40% of the total demand, and (c) the importance of Moorish baths, second largest consumer in the sector (especially when estimated wood consumption is accounted for). Structure of Demand 2.41 The principal enerV sources used in the tertiary sector, excluding woodfuels, are gas oil and domestic fuel oil (nearly 50% of final demand), electricity (one-third) and natural gas (10%). Other fuels are consumed in smaller quantities: LPO used in the hotel/restaurant industry for cooking, kerosene used in Moorish baths for water heating instead of or in addition to gas oil, and heavy fuel oil used for large furnaces in some major establishments. 2.42 Gas oil generally is consumed in buildings which are occupied continuously (such as hotels and hospitals), mainly for space and water heating, as well as in Moorish baths, which absorb about 30% of the total demand. However, over the past few year natural gas has substituted gas oil in a number of establishments (particularly hotels) in the Tunis region and in tourist areas along the coast. The present gas grid reaches Tuni, Nabeul, Hammamet, and Sousse. An estimated 90% of large hotels have been converted to gas; sales in the sector have reached 22 million in. Gas is also used in these establishments for cooking. Iabte 2.4: FINL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE TERTIARY SECTOR (1987) (in thousands of TOE) Natural Diesel S/total gas LPG Keroseiw Fuel Ofl pet prod. Electricity TOTAL Hotels 15.5 1.6 33.2 50.3 39X 13.2 21X 63.5 33X Restaurants, cafes 1.3 6.3 7.6 ox 1.7 31 9.3 5X Turkish baths * 0.2 7.6 24.8 32.7 251 0.2 0 32.9 17X Public health 1.5 2.0 11.0 14.5 11X 3.5 6a 18.0 9X Admfnistratios 0.2 0.1 4.0 4.3 3X 4.3 7X 8.6 5X Public lighting 3.8 6X 3.8 21 Others 0J 3.1 Q, 6. Q 151 j15 571 A 29 TOTAL 18.9 13.1 7.8 89.1 128.9 1OOX 62.0 1001 190.9 1001 10 71 41 47X 68X 32X 100X Sorce: ONTT, STEG, OURE/ANE, Ministry of Public Health. AlE surws and ission estimates excluding woodfuels. * od consuption estimated at 17,355 TOE fn 1987. 2.43 Electicity is the most commonly consumed enerV in several subsecors: commerce, offices, schools, miscellaneous services. Electicy onsumption is alo intensive in hotels and hospitals, although less so than that of gas oiL A large part of the total electicity demand of the . 29 - tertiy sector is accounted for by categories not listed in Table 2.6 (57% of the total, representing 35300 toe in 1987) such as offices, retail stores and miscellaneou services. Demand is split exactly into two-thirds high and medium voltage (370 GWh in 1987) and one-third low voltage (185 GWh). The tertiary sector's contribution to peak load probably is more than its share of power demand. In effect, electricity consumption is not divided uniformly over time because buildings in the sector are occupied only during specifc periods of the day. Also, air conditioning is used only during the hottest hours of the day. In 1989, the STEG started analyzing the load curves for the sector as an input for determining the requirements for additional generating capacity. 2.44 Overall consumption of specific electricity uses lighting, air conditioning. motors and engines, miscellaneous appliances) represent a minor portion of the total energy demand in the tertiary sector (about 30%). According to the 1985 MFS study, electric power is used mainly for lighting (more than half the total consumption), followed by air conditioning (less than 20%) and miscellaneous uses. Lighting and miscellaneous non-heating applications dominate in commerce, schools, and the public/private service sectors (social, culturaL recreational). Use of air conditioning is especially well-developed in office buildings and the hotel industry, where corresponding electricity consumption can exceed that for lighting. Hotel and Restaurants 2.45 For a long time, Tunisia has devoted significant resources to developing its tourist industry. Over the past five years, the value added of hotels and restaurants (including bars and cafes) has risen at an average annual rate of about 11%. This industry's contribution to tertiary sector GDP and to the national GDP also have risen, totalling approximately 11% and 6% respectively in 1988. 2.46 In 1988, there were more than 430 hotels, fainly guest houses and vacation villages, with a total capacity of more than 100,000 beds. About 30% of these are large scale, deluxe accommodations (3 or 4 stars) comprising nearly half the capacity. The oocupancy rate averages only 50%, due to the seasonal nature of the tourist industry. To date, energy audits have been performed on a dozen establishments. The data thus obtained were used to estimate final energy consumption in hotels, which is presented in Annex 6. In summary, the data indicate that: (a) the 120 deluxe establishments absorb nearly 70% of all energy consumed by hotels; (b) the predominance of gas oil, domestic fuel oil and natural gas consumption- representing more than three-quarters of total consumption-emphasizes the importance of heating (buildings, sanitary hot water, pools) in the subsector; (c) although electricity only ranks third among fuels consumed, it represents nearly 30% of energy consumption in deluxe hotels, mainly because of air conditioning. 2.47 With the exception of tourist restaurants afMiated with the Tunisian National Office of Toursm (ONTI), there are no precise statistics concerning the number of restaurants and cafe/bars. An estimate of this number was made using ONIT and INS statistics and served as the basis for the statistical sample used during the surey carried out in the Study. The survey covered 232 establishments (comprising more than 5% of the estimated employees) spread across the country. The results were used in preparing a preliminary final energy demand balance for the - 30 - restaurant Industry, which Is presented in Annex 7. The badance shows that: (a) The subsector consumes less than 10,000 TOE/yr, equivalent to 15% of fnal energy consumption by hotels and 5% of the total for the entire tertiary sector (eaxcuding woodfuels). (b) Conumuption of LPG, used for cooking and preparing hot beverages (coffee and tea), exceeds by far that of other fuels, and represents 70% of the final consumption. (c) Natural gas has been substituted for LPG in tourist restaurants, most of which are in areas where natural gas is distrbuted: more tan two-thirds of these establisbhments use natural gs. (d) Electricity accounts for less than 20% of final consumption of the subsector; this Is about the same percentage found in hotels. Turkish Baths 2.48 Regular visits to Turkdsh baths is commonplace in bunisia, both for health and reigitous reasons. 12/ Tere are no precise statistics on the number of Turkish baths, which has been estimated at about one thousand establishments in operation, based on figures obtained from municipalities nad the Tunisan Union of Industry, Commerce and Craftsmen (UIICA) and from a poll of twenty nural duster The main survey conducted during the Study used a sample of fifty Turkish baths in urban areas (encompassing more than 5% of the total number of urban establishments) and 21 establishments in rural areas. 2.49 The final energy demand balance for Turkish baths establibhed on the basis of these seys is given in Annmx The principal obsewvations are: (a) In towns with more than 2,000 inhabitants - where about 87% of all establishments are located - about two-thirds of the establishments use gas oil (65%). Gas oil consumption represents nearly half the fna energy consumption, including woodfuels. (b) Almost all establishments located in smal rural towns Qess than 2,000 inhabitants) use wood exclusively, as do about 13 % of the other establishments. Some baths use both wood and gas oil or kerosene. Overall, wood accounts for more than one- third of the total consumption of final energy. (c) Kerosene is used exclusively by more than 20% of establishments in towns with more than 10,000 inhabitants, but the percentage declines in the smallest towns. Nevertheless, dis fuel represents about 15% of the total energy consumed. iZ/ Accordg to the INS less than 15% of Tunlan dwligW had both or shower cilitdes i 1984; the petea of uban dwe ith these facilaies tled 23%, as compared to only 1% of rural dwelings * 31 - (d) There have been few conversions to natural ga and electricity consumption-mostly for lighting-is modest. Each accounts for less than 1% of the totaL 2.50 The survey also revealed that the average energy ependiture of a Turkish bath located in the larger towns is about TD 13,500 per year. Using the entrance fee-approximately 500 to 600 millimes-as the base for calculation, nearly 25,000 customers would be needed to cover annual enerDy expenditures. This figure corresponds roughly to the average number of patrkns reported in the survey. lbus, even though each customer generally spends more than the entrance fee (often twice as much), and the customer estmates were probably less than the actual number., clearly energy ependitures represent a large percentage (perhaps 30% to 50%) of revenues. ED=eR Suppl W-oodfuels Emstr Resources 2.51 Tunisia's natural forest formations are mainly composed of oak or pine forests and shrub-covered savannah or steppes ("garrigues"); the type of forest cover varies according to the different climatic zones. In addition to natural vegetation, there are a number of national or private forest plantations composed mainly of pines, eucalyptus and/or acacias, as well as large surface areas planted with fruit trees. 2.52 There is no recent and detailed inventoty of forest resources. The only data available cover state lands managed by the Directorate of Forestry Resources (DGF) in the Ministy of agriculture (MA), which represent 3.3 million hectares (ha), or about 20% of the naional territoty. State forests occupy only one-quarter of this area, or about 900,000 ha. They include natural forest, reforested zones, and stretches of dense undergrowtth (maquis) and garrigue. The main national forests are located in the Northwest region-where there are still large forests Of oaks (cork oaks and zeen oaks)-and in the Central West region. Many of these so-called "forests" can be quite degraded J/. The rest of the territory controlled by the DOF are composed of grazing zones and state farms (1.88 million ha), and shrub-covered zones (520,000 ha). The grazing zones are located principally in the semi-arid regions of the Southwest and the Southeast, but some also est in the dry mountains of the Central West and the Sahel. 2.53 According to MA figures, fruit trees occupy more than 2 million ha in Tunisia, almost double the state forest cover. The most common are olive trees (1.4 million ha) and almond trees, followed by orange, peach and plum trees. The Olive Tree Institute estimates that there are currently about 55 milion olive tree: 20 million in the north, 20 million in the central regions (particularly in the Sahel) and 15 million in the south. Planting densities vary from 100 trees per ha in the north to 20 trees per ha in the south. W Since most ang data date frm 1984 or earler, it Is prb that deradaton of formt resourcs has inceased to dat due to te severe droug which occred between 1964 and 1987. .32 - Avaflabiliq of Wood for Fuel 2.54 The total availability of wood for fuel cannot be estimated precisely, as there have been no inventories of Tunisia's natural forests. In partcular, it is impossible to determine whether forest productivity presently is sufficient to cover demand for woodfuels, and whether it will be insufficient In the future. However, the Forestry Development Project (FDP), carded out by the DGF with World Bank financing, should improve the quality of data on national forests. 2.55 The quantity of wood avaiable from olve trees can be estimated from data provided by the Olive Tree Institute. I/ Olive trees must be trimmed regularly, and the quantity of wood obtained from trimming varies by region and the age of the tree. j/ Fruit trees are trimmed biennially, the average yield for all of Tunisia is estimated at 15 kg of wood per tree per year: this is equivalent to about 825,000 tons of olive wood per year. This estimate is quite conservative and includes neither output from replacement cuts of older trees, nor leaves and twigs, which are generally used as fodder for animals or burned in the fields. When wood from maintenance trims of other fruit trees is added to this production, the total availability probably rises to more than 1 mfllion tons each year. This is undoubtedly one of the major supply sources for wood for fuel. ReeSatingX and Enforcement 2.56 In theory, a cutting permit is required to fell any tree in Tunisia. The permits can be obtained at the Governorate leveL Exceptions include fruit trees other than olive trees, and maintenance trimmingS Wood from national forests is marketed by the DOF mainly by auction of standing stoclk About 120,000 tons of wood were sold by auction in 1988, of which nearly three- quarters (90,000 tons) were standing stock. In certain areas-mainly in the Central West and the Northwest-the DOF allows the neighboring population to supply itself with wood free of charge according to the practice of "users' domain", the terms of which vaty from one Governorate to another. Tne DOF estimated that in 1987, wood cut under such practices accounted for some 500,000 tons. 2.57 Field agents from the forestry servxice monitor forest production, but regulations are only partly enforced. Peasants in agricultural zones usually do not bother to apply for cutting permits, even when they are sure to get one with no difficulty. The DGF suspects this is also the case in forest zones, where there has been considerable fraudulent cutting which does not fall under category of the users' domain. 2.58 Charcoal production is also subject legally to prior authorization. Carbonization permits are granted by the forestry service in the Governorate, but only if the applicant can prove that the wood was cut legaly. Permits are valid only for a limited time (usually up to 14 days) so that they cannot be re-used. Both foresty agents and poLice are empowered to enforce the permits In 1988, legal charcoal production was about 37,000 tons, or 185,000 tons of wood equivalent. I/ Lo sous-prodmits de rPolv, AU Nefzaoui and MNaouerdani Publicadon of the OliMe Tree lnstitute, Sfax 1/ For xmple, fn tree trminW from young plants produce about 30 kg/tree/year In the north, whtle those taken from mature plans reach 70 kg in the south, while replacement cuts of aging plants produce 100 kg/tree in the noth and 425 kg/tree In sout a 33. 2.59 Fuehwood and charcoal can only be transported with a trasport permit ('permis de colportage'). hle foresty service within the Governorate grants the trwsport permit upon presentation of a cutting pemit or a arbonizaton permit, and after vedfying the stocks in the applicant's depotL Transport permits are valid only for the day it Is granted and during certai hours (to avoid fraud). enforcement is carried out by the foresy agents and the police. It should be noted that the tranwsport permits are granted on the basis of the vehicle's nominal useful load. However, in pracice, tr ters systematically overload their vehicles As a result, the quantities registered on the permits probably underetimate the actual load by 20% to 30%. 2.60 ehvlod4 Fuelwood is commerdalized in only a few ruxal aras as well as in urban areas, where, however, its conumption is very limited. The DOF is the largest supplier of wood and sells directly to the consumers The only commercial distnbution route is found in the Northeast, where merchants buy wood from the DOF or private wholesalers and resell it in the towns of the mountain regions, mainly for heating. In other regions of the country, the ural population collects wood for its own needs. In the cities, wood is rarely sed except in preparation of tabouna bread. It often is purchased from various sources, none of which constitute a really strucured ditibution networL 2.61 CharcoaL Likewise, the majority of charcoal consumed by ural dwellers does not come from commercial sources, it is produced by the user. By contrast, there are well developed uppy networks for production, distribution and marketing in cities. The networks are different, depending on whether forest wood or olive tree wood is used to produce charcoaL For the former, wood is purchased by buyers at the DGF, most often in the form of parcels of standing trees. Olive tree trmmings are purcsed already cut, directly from the peasants 2.62 The wood is then carbonized by professionals on the exploitation ute, if the wood i from forestry production, or at permanent production sites (when olive tree rimmings are used). The charcoal producers are usually paid acoording to the weight of charcoal produced, but at the work sites, some have fixed salaries They work in teams of two to five persons. Usually, the wood is air-dried as much as possible, then carbonized in an earth kiln. The kilns vaiy in production capacity from 750400 kg of charcoal up to 10 tons; the most commonly used klls produce about 2.5 tons per batch. According to available data, obserations and tests carried out during the Project, profesional carcoal producers have perfected the earth kiln technique, thus resulting in relatively high yils weight yields often exceed 25% for olive tree wood and 20% for other wood, acording to DOF estimates / .An 17) 2.63 The ca l is packaged in 30 to 50 kg bag for trnsport to cities using small pick. uPS or standard truc Most merdhants have their own vehicles, but they also sell charcoal along the roadside to transorters. Once in the city, the truck is unloaded at a wholesale depot managed by the merchant, the trawporter, or a third party. There are 20 to 25 depots of this sort in Tuni From the depot, charcoal is sold to wholesalers or retailers or directly to consume ~j/ In tlis repon, the figure of 20% by wt was adopted as the aumption for avage cabonizton el at natoa evel; this ts into a40uat the fact that rur slf-producw are probably not able to reach cation yid of poessona chales .34. Pdaoe Structur 2.64 Tbe price structure for fuelwood and charcoal presented in Table 2.5 are based on preliminary information gathered during the project. They are representative only of particular case; indeed the producer prices (ex-DOF or ex-peasant), carbonization and transport costs, margis and the retail prices vary from city to city and from region to region. However, the review of these structures underscores the size of the distribution margns (often on the order of 50%), which provide substantial benefits to the merchants Iakle 2.5: WOOD PRICE (in D/ton) Coumercial Supply Local Use Cord wood Bundle Cord wood Bundle DaF sale price 11 29X 8 13X 6 4 Nargfns / 29 71X 52 871 Urban retall prfce (North) 40 100X 60 100X I.e. in D/TOE 118 176 f Includino cost of transport from production zone to town and handling cost. CHARCOAL PRICE! (in D/ton) _ 20n North-Tunis Sahet-Ssome Vood origin Natural Forest Fruit Tree Prrnino Stulpage vatue 40 Production cost 50 Producer sate price 90 26X 90 28X Charcoallng coat S0 141 50 16X T'ansport V 32 91 10 3X Handlin costas 8 21 a 31 Distributfon marfons S 170 49X 162 511 Retatl prfce 350 100X 320 1001 I.e., In D/TOE 441 403 M/ on the base of 135 km for Tunis and 80 km for ousse pecknup load a 1.2 ton of charcoal. hi Loading/unloading at the depot or retail point. S/ Wholesaler and retailer. Sore: Nlssion estimates and DPP. .35 - 2.65 It is impossibe to estimate the economic cost of standing wood and to compare it to DOPs producer price, as there is no information either concerning the costs of managing and maintaining national forests, or on the costs of wood plantations. The case of olive tree wood is simpler: as a by-product of maintenance trims, which are necessary to enhance the tree's production, its stumpage value is zero and therefore its aeploitation is interesting. The problem then becomes how to choose among different possibilities for exploitation techniques. The PDF is currently studying the question. H)*rbons Ntu.S Gas 2.66 Manufactured gas ("city gas") has been in use in Tunisia since the last century, long before the development of natural gas. Until 1955, coal was used to manufacture the gas; between 1955 and 1971, natural gas from the small Djebel Abderrahman field at Cap Bon 12/ and then, until 1983, light gasoline were used. Since 1984, city gas has been manufactured using natural gas from Algeria. City gas is distnbuted in Tunis; maxmum production was reached in 1985 with 0.14 million TOB. A conversion project affecting the distribution network and household installations has been underway since then so that city gas can gradualy be repced by natural gaL 2.67 Natural gas consumed in Tunisia comes from two main sources other than the gas field at Cap Bon: the El Borma field and the Trans-Mediterranean Pipeline (TMP) linking Algeria with Italy. Recovery of associated gas at El Borma began in 1972. Since 1978, natural gas from the Algerian section of the field also has been purchased. Gas production at El Borma grew at a reglar pace until 1982, when it reached 0.55 million TOE, then remained practically constant til 1987, when it started declining. Cumulative production between 1972 and 1988 was approdximately 8 million TOE. Gas is transported by pipeline from El Borma towards Gabbs (300 km), where it is used in part by several large companies in the industrial zone. Since 1987, natural gas also has been used as feedstock in a gas plant at Gab"s to produce LPG and gasoline. 2.68 lhe TM was placed in service in 1983. By 1985, it was already a major source of natural gas for Tuniia, supplying 60% of the Tuniian market; the share has continued to increase. Tunisia has access to the following quantities of natural gas from the TMP: (i) about 35% of the total to reimburse transit rights (royalty gas) and (ii) about 65% of deliveries through direct purhase from Algeria. All or part of the royalty gas can be taken in kind or in cash. Between 1983 and 1986, only two-thirds of the royalty was taken in kind. Natural gas imports from Algeria thus include offtake from the Algerian section of El Borma and purchases from the pipeline. These imports represented between 20% and 25% of total supply to Tunisia in 1984 and 1985, compared to less than 10% in 1983. 2.69 SIEG holds the monopoly for natural gas distibuton in Tunisia STEG purchases gs from SITEP, which operates the El Borma field, and from ETAP, which imports the Algerian II/ TUls was the fis naual. aS field develaoped in Tunisia and was put into production In 1954. Cumu prodctin reached 0.17 million TOE by the end of 1987. -36- s. In addition, SIEG itself operates the smal field at Cap Bon and owns the gas plants near GaC s and in Tunis (El Omrane, where city gas is manufaured). Curently, the distribution network served by the pipeline includes the areas of Tunis, Sousse, Monastir, Kasserine, Tajerouine and Korba. 2.70 SuwIx. Since 1987, LPG consumed in Tunisia has come from three sources: (a) the STIR refinery at Bizerte, with current LPG production capacity of 30,000 tons/yr; (b) the gas plant at GabWs, which has recovered LPG from El Borma associated gas since March 1987, with production eaceeding 50,000 tons in 1988; and (c) inports handled by ETAP, totalling about 116,000 tons in 1988, or nearly 57% of national demand. Before the plant at Gabk was commissioned, more than 80% of the supply had to be imported; total imports wer as high as 147,000 tons in 1986. 2.71 Although current L imports have dropped to the same levels as a decade ago, they are nearly quadruple the 1976 level (30,000 tons), representing an annual average growth of 12%. JA/ LPG imports come from different Mediterranean ports (Algeria, Italy, Greece, France) and enter Tunisia through its ports at Bizerts, La Goulette (ruis), Sfax and Gabs Ihe fuel is imported in averageized cargoes, which generally vary from 700 to 1700 tons. In 1988, cargoes were imported at a rate of six per month, but sometimes increased to as many as eight at La Goulette and Sfax, causing congestion and long waits at the port. 272 Storage and Botd e RBefillsPO is distbuted to the domestic market by four distbution companies (distrbutors): SNDP, a national company, and the private companies BUTAGAZ, PROMOGAZ (both subsidiaries of SHEL-Tunisia) and TOTAL GAZ Transport from ports and from the refinery to the distributors' depots is by pipeline. Part of STIRs production (about 20%) is delivered in bulk by truck directly to lae customers. 2.73 The legal framework governing LPG stocks requires that STIR and each of the diributors keep secauity stocks equalent to one months' sl and working stocks of 15 dayssales. Storage requirements are calculated based on averages from the preceding year. STIR currently has 6,000 tons of storage capacity, and the distrbution companies have a total of 15,000 tons. The latter are scattered unevenly throughout the country, with 6,700 tons (45%) in the north (depots at Bizerte and Tunis), 1,170 tons (8%) in the central regions (depots at Sfax) and 7,100 tons (47%) in the south (depots at Gabes). Based on the review of regional sales in 1988 and according to DOF estimates, about 5,000 tons of additional storage capacity is needed, especially in the north and central regions of the country. Estimates of future storae deficits are presented below. 2.74 A very small quantity of LPG isditributed in bulk, but most is bottled in quantities of 3 kg, S kg 25 k 35 kg and 13 1 the latter representing around 90% of£nsumption 1/. The existing refml capacity for the entire country is 6,400.13 kg bottles per hour. m includes five / The aveae groh rtae between 1976 and 1986, whea the Gab plant enme onHle enoeded 17% p& 12/ Hower, sIne 1969 th dbutors ae tried to iwn their sles of 3 nd S kg bottes in the ua and pen- uiban msdc .37 - reflg statons at the ditribution depots, 2W two of which are owned by SNDP and three operated by co ies (NORD GAZ and SUD GAZ) omned jintly by the other ditributors Based on operations of 10 hours/day and 25 days/month, the fv stations have refilling capacity of 1.6 milion-13 kg botdes per month, which Is sufficient to cwver LPG demand during peak (1.4 million/month) and off-peak (1.2 million/mon) periods. 2.75 An estimted 2.4 million-13 kg bottes are in use in 1987. The diard rate for that same year was 35%. Given this rate, a rotation of bottles estimated at 55 refils per year and an annual consumption growth of 4%, the current demand for new bottles should be about 200,000. his demand can be met amply by two esti manucs, whose total capacity is 330,000-13 kg bottles per year. Ihe ex-factory price of a 13 kg botde has risen successively from TD 18/unit in 1986 to TD 26 in 1987, then to TD 30 in 1989, an increase of70% in threeyeam This price has discouraged distibutors from purchasing new botdes, despite wear and tear on their inventory. (See price structue in Table 2.6). 2.76 Didbution SNDP owns nearly 40% of the storage capacity and 46% of the refilling capacty in the country. In 1987, it also held nearly half (49%) of the internal LP market, with the other half split among the private distribution companies. 21/ Private intermediaries-lcalled d6positaires, or hipping agentdistrbute the bottled LPG to retailers, using their own vehicles, storage depots, working stock of empty bottles and hoisting equipment. 2.73 About 140 shipping agents are also sb-contractors for the dbtrbutors However, since their marg is nominal (200 millimes/13 kg bottle) sipping agents try to increase their profits by limiting the distance travelled and by ghving priority to deliveries to large retailers and to the coastal areas near the reflng centers As a result, small reters and outlying refiling stations have supply diffiles It is not uncommon in rural areas for the consumers themselves to travel long distances to replace empty bottles: in this case, they must pay the ta cost of their own trasport. Also, botdes are not interchangeable-SNDP botdes are different from those used by the private ditrbutors-which further complicates supply to the consumer. 2.74 Although shiing agents supply more than 9,3 sales points across the country, shortages are common in some distant rural areas Sales permits for LPO are granted by the Direction de lTevironement of the Ministry of Commerce; the DGE is not involved in the process. For safety reasons, the Diection de l'Enironnement requires that the retailers keep no more than 20-13 kg botdes in storage. This regulation, wbich woud lead to disruptions in the stock, is rarely respected. j/ T1e two tos are loaed In the roth (Bliete and Ia Gouloto) have a total cacity of 3,250-13 kg botles per hour, the contra sta (Sfax) can f 2013 lkg bots per hour, ad the two souferm ons ( s) hve a ot capacy of l950-13 kg bottls per hour. ZZ/ BUIAGAZ - 24%; PROMOOAZ - 19%; and TOTAL GAZ - 8%. -38 Kerosense 2.75 I= a. All of STIR's kerosene output goes to the production of 6trole lampant", U/ or regular kerosene, whereas aviation kerosene is imported. To date Tunisia has been self-sufficient in kerosene, with the exeption of a few years (such as 1984 and 1985, recently) when imports were needed to complement local prduction, no more than 16% of uppwy ha ever been imported (in 1985), however. STIR's kerosene production has risen from 64,000 TO1E in 1972 to top 159,000 TOE in 1987, an annual average inrease of more than 6%. 2.76 The legl framework governing stocs requires that the refinery and the distrbutors hold one and two months' security stocks respectively, 15 days' working stocks (based on current sale) and a 95% rdl coefficient. STIR's storage capacity at Bizene is about 18,000 mn, which, in 1988, represented a surplus capacity of about 3000 m! compared with storage requirements. The distributors have 41,080 m' in storage capacity divided between SNDP (3357 mi) and the private companies, for a surplus of about 2000 m3 relative to their combined 1988 storage requirements. (Taken alone, however, SNDP has a slight shortage of capacity.) The distrbutors' main depots are located at La Goulette (two-thirds of total capacity) and at Sfax 2.77 STIR has nearly 21Z,000 m3 in storage capacity for light products, most of which is underutlized With this surplus capacity, plus construction of two new depots at Belli (Cap Bon) and in the south, STIR should have no difficulty fulflling its future storage requirements. 2.78 Inansof. Kerosene is transported from the refinery to the distributor's depots via pipeline (Tunis) and by sea (Sfax). The pipeline linldng SI1R to La Goulette (71,5 kn) is operated by a state enterprise (SOTRAPIL) and has been used since 1984 to transport ight products, thus aldeviating some of the congestion at Tunis' port. More than 53% of STIR's kerosene production was transported via pipeline in 1985. Use of the SOTRAPIL pipeline should increase once a project to extend the pipeline to Belli (Cap Bon), for which studies are well advanced, is completed. Sea transport between STIR and Sfax is handled by the Compaie Tunienne de Navigation (CTN): in 1985, 41,000 tons of kerosene were ferried to Sfax 2.79 Kerosene also is transported by truck and, to a much lesser xtent, by raiL The total capacity of road transport was estimated at 280 m3 in 1985. The transport fleet primarily consists of 25 ton vehicles owned by the transport companies or distributors. Rail bansport has never been used for more than a minor share of STIR's production, and its use currently is declining: rail tonnage dropped from 8500 tons in 1981 to 2280 tons in 1985. 2.80 Distrjbutn. Seven distrbutors share the domestic market for kerosene: SNDP and six subsidiaries of large private companies. 2@/ Ite distributors use their own vehicles to supply their respective depots and some of their larger clients. However, most transport to retailers is subcontracted. Z2 Often caWld prle bleu Tia fl/ E1SSO, SHLL, MOBM TOTAL FINA, BP and MORY. -39. 2.81 Retail sales of kerosene are handled by service stations, peddlers and retail merchants. At the end of 1987, there were 654 service stations across the country. Statistics concerning peddlers 24/ and retail merchants are not currently available. The latter are usually groers or shop owners who also sell charcoal. Still, it should be noted that municipal statutes in Tunis forbid the sale of kerosene by grocers Sa Oil XI/ 2.82 mas oil was supplied to Tunisia in roughy equal proportions from two sources in 1987: SIIR output and ETAP imports from the Mediterranean market Most imports come through the port at Sfax (two-thirds in 1985-8, versus 23% at Bizerte and 10% at La Goulette). The share of local production will double once the refinery expansion is completed. 2.83 Gas oil, as well as domestic fuel oil, is subject to the same legal requirements for storage capacity as kerosene. Existing capacity and STIR's unused white product storage capacity are sufficient for current needs and should be sufficient in the future 2.84 Gas oil is transported from STIR to La Goulette via the SOTRAPIL pipeline (about three-fourths of STIRs 1985 production). The rest is transported by truck (total capacity in 1985 was 3000 mn for all light products combined), by barge (to Tunis and Sfax) and by raiL Rail tranport is used mainly to supply the industrial sector (cement, sugar, chemical and paper industries). 2.85 The kerosene distributors also distribute gas oil. Retail sales are handled by sevice tations, but large consumers in both the tertiary and residential sectors receive delivery by tuk Pie Structure 2.86 Current price stuctures for the different products are presented in Table 2 6 / T his table shows that, except in the case of LPG, the ex-refinery price of these products is higher than comparable CIF prices for products imported from the international market; none of the products carries a net subsidy on retail price. Without precise information on the real costs of production at STIR, it is difficult to determine if ex-refinery prices truly reflect economic costs of production at STIR. In addition, the differential between ex-refinery and CIF prices is recent: data presented in Annex for LPG and kerosene show that the differential was reversed (CIF higher than ex-refinery) up until 1987. 74/ There is a cooperatve for peddlers the CODIP. E/ The analysis presentd beWow is limited to gas- since domesc fuel oi in Tunisia is obtained from psi with some additives and since other petroleum products (not studied up to this point) are consumed In vey small quandties In the idential and tertiay sectors. ;4/ This pdre ure has been modiied by the Intodui of a 6% value added tas in 1989. Thi modication combined with an increase of ote taes (drot de consom_tlon) has buaed the reta prces of LPG and krosene to D269/ton and D180/M3 respectivey (Februaty 1991) which b equent to around D243 per TOE of LPG and D218 per TOE of kerosene, thus maWaiing aboutthe same differncebesweenm rea prices of these two fuels -40 - IgLat 2.s PRICES OF PETROLEIM POSC (in D/TOE) hatwal Gas LPG kerosene DIestl OFl CIf price 73 49X 121 54X 128 "I 115 34X 114 30X Purchase price to STIR 106 47K 135 70M 247 74X 291 76X Margins distributors 56 25X 14 7X 13 4X 10 3X Margins retailers 17 8K 11 6X 10 3K M*) Domestic transport 26 12K 10 5X 11 3K t*) S/total Without taxes 205 92K 170 87K 282 84X 301 79K (a) Taxes 18 ex 25 13K 53 16X 81 21X Retail price (A) 148 10OX 223 100X 194 1001 335 100X 382 100K (*) CtF price + margins + transport (B) 221 99K 162 84K 150 45K 124 33i A-B 2 32 185 258 M*) Based on price ex distributors' depot (without delivery cost). sources: 1968 data CETAP). Price structure at July 1, 1988, maritime base. 2.87 Iale 2.6 also reveals the distortions between economic costs-considered equal to CIF prices plus domestic tranwsport and distibution costs and margins-and the prices to the consumers, as wei as distortions between different products. Only LPG was sold for a price close to its economic cost in 1988, whereas the official retail price varied from the economic cost by a factor of three in the case of domestic fuel oil, and by a factor of two for gas oiL Gueneration and Distribution 2.88 Natonal production of electric power reached 4550 GWh in 1987, after growth of nearly 8% in the preceding year. 2A/ Of the total, 88% was generated by STEG and the remaining 12% by 'autoproducers. There are frequent exchanges with Algeria, with a current balance of 3 GWh exported by Algeria. STEGs net production has nearly doubled since 1980: net production in 1980 was 2430 GWh, and reached 4020 GWh in 1987. Growth in the previous year (1986), when net production totaled 3750 GOW, was equivalent to 7.1%. More than 97% of STEG' production is thermaly generated (80% steam and nearly 18% gas turbines); hydroelectric generation accounts for only 3% of the total, although its share is increasin& In 1987, thermally generated electricity was based on use of transcontinental ps (76% versus 21% in 1986), El Borma gas (19% versus 25% in 1986), heavy fuel (5% versus 54% in 1986) and gas oil (0.2% versus 0.1% in 1986). 2/ 'Acti*& et comptes de Stion do ran6o 1987,' SG. .41- 2.89 In 1987, the peak load reached 710 MW, corresponding to a 6% growth from the preceding year and an increase of nearly 40% since 1981. The transmision system (225 kV, 150 kV and 90 kV) consists of 2549 km of transmission lines and 38 trandorming stations. Transmission losses are about 3.7%. EneW sold to consumers totaled 3550 GWh: 20% went to the only 12 high voltage (HV) customers in the country (large industries), 47% to medium Voltage (MV) and 33% to low voltage (LV). Nearly 6S00 customers in the industrial and tertiary sectors make up the MV sales, which have increased by 11A% since 1986. Growth of LV sales (mostly households 28/) between 1986 and 1987 was more moderate but still reached 7.3%. LV sales have practically doubled since 1980. Rate of Electrica1tion 2.90 The number of LV customers has grown at a regular pace of about 65,000 new customers each year over the past decade. As a result, total LV customers exceeded 12 million in 1988, more than double the number ten years before (Ann&4,). LV sales in 1987 totaled more than 1200 GWh. 2.91 Growth rates are uneven in urban and rural areas: of the 65,300 new customers in 1987, more than 80% live in urban areas. Similarly, although the overD electrification rate for households in 1987 was 70%, the rate in urban areas was 93% versus 29% in rural areas 22/. However, in rural dusters (more than 50 inhabitants), the electriication rate reached 57%. STEG's objectives include an electrification rate of 100% for urban areas and 76% for rural dusters by the end of the period covered by the Seventh Development Plan (1987.1991). 2.92 In addition to urban/rural differences, the electrification rate for households also varies according to region, as shown in abkl 2.7 and Figure 4. Te Grand-Tunis metropolitan area alone contains about 28% of the total elechicity subscribers and accounts for nearly 40% of LV consumption, more than double the consumption of the two Central regions combined, which only contain 18% of the customers. The electrification rate in all areas combined varies from 98% in Grand-Tunis to less than 50% in the Northwest and 40% in the Central West. 2/ Ter secomr osmers are noaly MV asomers, althouh some of the saller aftsn and mens are LV customers 22/ Recent rs of the Pcpulatln and Empyment Nadton Sumq show dtht the of eecticaon wa 735% at naional lee in 196 (95.4% for utban areas 39.4% foru) areae whic represent an a neas of S0,000 hoseholds per year on the perid 1964.1969. - 42 - Figure 4: RATE OF ELECTRIFICATION Total Tunisia % of households 100%- 80%- . m .. .. . 60%. 20%. 1976 1980 1984 1989 iRural lz Total 13 Urban By region in 1984 7% of houaholds 60% TUNI8 N-E N-W C-E C-W SOUTH - Rural lz Total C:: Urban 8ouroe: IN8 .43 - Tabte 2 7: LOW VOLTAGE ELECTRIFICATION IN 1987 Cornsuption Electrif. Consuwption Coruwctions per connection Rate GVh X No. K kWh/year Tunis Ltrtoptit.n 98X 459 395 320,030 28K 1,434 North-East 75s North-vest 49% S/total North 253 21X 274,660 24X 921 Center-East 846 Center-West 38% S/total Center 187 16K 200,580 18X 932 South-East 69X South-vest 69K S/total South 278 24X 343,530 s0K 809 TOTAL TUISIA 70= 1,177 100K 1,138,800 100K 1,034 Sourc: STEC Activity Report, February 1988. Prmnt L 2.93 S 0EG is tking important stes for load management through technical means as well as through tiff incentives or data acquisition. Among these steps are: (a) the implementation of a computerized sstem to manage the distribution network; (b) the installation of centralized remote control network at transformation stations to control load shedding during peak hours; (c) the use of night and off-peak tariff as well as penalties for cessive power factors; (d) the purchase of 150 recorders in 1987, with World Bank assistance, to carry out load measurements from three consumer samples (HV, MV, LV); (e) a large, ongoing survey of households, five years after the 1984 survey, which will show the evolution since then in terms of appliances, specific consumption and consumption trends; (f) the promotion of solar water heaters 2.94 Promotion of the rational use of electricity is also a STEO objective. This siifies that SMMG no longer engage in actions simpl to promote the sale of electric power, preferential tar for electric water heaters now have been abandoned. It should be noted that electricty tariffs briefl reflected long-run marginal costs of supply (LRMC) in 1986 but have dropped under these cost since that date. -44- Renewable hEag 2.95 Tunisia has a considerable resource base for renewable energies, ranging from solar energy, abundant in practically all of the countay, to low enthalpy geothermal resources, concentrated in southern Tunisia. Several organizaions, including the AME, STEG, the MA and the Office du Tbermalisme, have tried for several years to develop this resource base. The AME, which was establish to promote utilization of different renewable energies, financialy has supported a number of demonstration projects. A total of TD 374,000 In subsidies were ganted by AME between 1986 and 1988 for wind projects (67%, including S0% for wind generators and 17% for wind pumps), geothermal (21%) and solar (12%). 2.96 To date, renewable energy has had only a modest impact on the national energy balance. Renewable energy production has dropped from 26,000 and 29,000 TOE during 1985 and 1987 to about 16,500 TOE in 1988 (i.e. only about 0.5% of total final energy). More than 60% of the 1988 total was accounted for by non-woody biomass, 21% by thermal solar and 16% by geothermal, with the rest (less than 3%) divided between wind energy (mainly wind pumps) and solar photovoltaics. 39/ Most application are still marginal or experimentaL Among those which are more advanced are the use of olive pits in the industrial sector 31/, small wind pumps and geothermal heating of greenhouses in the agricultural sector. 2.97 In the tertiary and residential sectors, the most well developed application without a doubt is solar water heating. It is used mostly in the residential sector (par 2.30), with only a few installations as of yet in the tertiary sector. The profitability of individual or collective solar water heaters is examined in Chapter 3. 2.98 Other applications are all still at the demonstration stage. They include electicity generation using photovoltaic or wind systems and urban geothermal space heatin A photovoltaics generating station at Hamman Biadha (29.5 kW peak) is operated by STECG 3/ and supplies electricity to a neighboring village; its operation bas demonstrated the economic limitations of centralized power generating systems (maintenance consaints, high cost per instaled kW, high production cost of kWh). AME, with GTZ's assitance is currently developing with success another approach based on individual systems, whose profitablity will be examined later in this report. Only two wind-powered generating stations of about 20 kW are functioning at present; STEG supervises their operation. One (El Houaria) is interconnected to SEG's MV network and the other (Jabouza) provides electricity to a village. Finally, there are only two functioning geothermal instlations providing sanitary hot water to two hotels (Kebfli and Mehari) from the thermal source Ain Cheffa AQJ "Los 6nerlas enouveables en Tunisia Siustion actuelle Sado Maherl DEP/AE, Feby 1989. j~/ This applicon Is by far the mos impora in terms of energproduced it represet an estimatd annul enr potental of 25,O TOE dung good years more than 85% of the combined prodution fom all renewable eneip sources betweon 1985 and 1987. Bad cimatc conditions limied the malai of olive nuts in 1968, which eplahs why 1988 fir ae so much lower than those of the preceng yea / The staion was financed by a US$ 12 million grant from UtAID. - 45 - IEL PERSPECTVES A. Demand Ergjections The Residential Sector Soci-linom Dvelp-ment 3.1 In 1989, Tunisia had about 1A million households. Based on the growth rates observed between the 1975 and 1984 censuses (2.6% at national level), the number of households should surpass 1.9 million by the year 2000, an increase of nearly 40%. Annex IQ presents the projections which illustrate this trend. Keeping in mind that they are merely indicative of future trends, these projections show no significant modifications to the geographic distribution of the population. However, this is not the case for the urban/rural balance. In effect, the number of urban households should grow by more than 60%, whereas rural households wDll only increase by around 12% and in areas with scattered population, the number of households will actually decrease by about 109 . Obviously, these population projections wil have impacts on the projection of energy demand, whether it be in terms of choice of fuel, level of specfic consumption or access to electricity. 3.2 However, demographics will not be the only factors influencing the evolution of energy demand in the residential sector in the short term. In addition to GNP growth rate, an influence will be felt due to changes in both the standard of living and the consumption habits which result as the population becomes increasingly urbanized. The extent and impact of these changes are difficult to predict. 3.3 Analysis of the evolution of household expenditures over the past few years is based on a historical data series provided by the INS. The data, which are presented in Annex 1 1 cover the decade 1975 through 1985. As economic growth was sustained during most of that period, with a slowdown only after 1984 (para. 15), this period was chosen to represent an average scenario for economic growth. Assuming that there is no major economic setback, the growth rate for 1975- 1985 can be used as the base case for the next ten years. Thus, a population projection by category of consumer was established by linking categories (as defined in para. 2.8) with level of expenditures. The projection is presented in Annex 1 Trends in Demand Growth 3A The growth trends for consumption of final energy by households was estimated according to this hypothesis. They are presented in Table 3.1. It was assumed that, at each level of consumption, both the percentage of households using wood, charcoaL LPG, or kerosene, and their specific consumption of these fuels (as shown in Iab13) would remain constant over time. For other fuels, factors such as STEG's dectrifiction objectives and the projected penetration by natural gas, gas oil and domestic fuel oil for increased use in domestic space heating also were taken into account. Annex 13 provides estimates of future consumption by product -46 - Iable 3.1: FORECAST HOUSEHOLD ENERGY CONSUNPTION (in thousands of TOE/Year) 1984 1987 1995 2000 Wood / 411 46X 422 44X 437 38X 444 34% Charcoal 100 11X 108 11X 129 11 143 11X S/total Woodfuels 511 58X 530 56X 566 49K 587 45X Average growth/year 1.2X 0.8X 0.7X Natural Gas 10 1X 13 1X 28 2X 42 3X LPG 149 17X 165 17X 219 19X 259 20X Kerosene 136 15X 146 15 172 15X 190 15X Diesel & Fuel Oil 22 2X 30 3K 66 6K 99 8K S/total pet prod 317 36X 354 37K 485 42K 590 45X Average growth/year 3.7X 4.0K 4.0K Etectricity 56 6K 65 7X 100 9X 125 10K Average growth/year 5.1X 5.5X 4.6K TOTAL 884 100l 949 100l 1,151 100l 1,302 100l Average growth/year 2.4K 2.4K 2.5K A/ Wood and other biomass (straw, dung, oli" nuts, etc.). Source: Amous and Ouerghi (1986), STEG forecasts and mission estimates. (See Annexes 12 and 13). 3.5 The results in Table 3.1 show that, over the next decade, total demand for final energy in the residential sector will grow at a rate (2.5%) slightly less than the population growth rate (2.6%). Total demand thus will rise from the current 1 million TOE to more than 1.3 million TOE/year by the year 2000. This represents an overall increase of more than 30%, although there are major differences in the growth rates of individual products. 3.6 The demand for woodfuels is expected to grow at a moderate pace over the next decade, with annual growth rates probably decreasing towards a stabilized level of consumption. Given carbonization yields, the wood offtake should go from 1.9 million tons/year in 1987 to more than 2.2 million tons/year in 2000 3/. However, the share of woodfuels in the residential energy balance thus will drop from more than 55% in 1987 to about 45% in 2000. This mainly will be due to a relatively stagnant demand for fuelwood, whereas charcoal consumption is expected to grow by 2.1% p.a. between 1987 and 2000 (although still not keeping pace with population growth). 3.7 A more rapid growth rate is anticipated for hydrocarbons demand: at 4% p.a. DJ The DGF estinates of the wood offtake are much higher, at 63 nillions of m3 per year wich are equ*alent to 4 mnIlions of tons; however the mision considers that the data provided by the Amous/Ouorhi survey in 1986 are more reasc dnce they are based on a large sample and actual measurements of woodfuel consumpidons. -47 - (considerably more than the population growth rate), demand will reach 590,000 TOE/year by 2000, an increase of nearly 240,000 TOE over 1987 demand. At that level, hydrocarbons demand will exceed that of woodfuels, although currently the former is one-third less than the latter. According to the scenarios of fuel penetration used in the projections, growth should be most vigorous among products which presently are not used frequently: consumption of natural gas, gas oil, and domestic fuel oil should more than triple over the next 13 years. The use of LPG in households also will continue to grow at an accelerated pace, from 150,000 tons in 1987 to more than 230,000 tons in 2000, an increase of more than 50% or 3.5% p.a. Kerosene is the only petroleum product expected to increase at a pace less that the rate of population growth: 2% annual growth over the period 1987-2000. 3.8 Electricity demand is expected to nearly double bet'veen 1987 and 2000, with an average annual growth rate of more than 5%. ITis growth will result from STEG's ongoing electrification programs, especially in rural areas. However, demand growth will slow as the rate of electrification in urban areas approaches 100%. In terms of primary energy, residental demand for electricity will reach 410,000 TOE/year by 2000. 3.9 Even though final demand for hydrocarbons and electricity in the residential sector wil increase at a sustained pace for the next few years, the anticipated growth rates are significantly lower than those of the preceding decade. The data on past product sales, presented in Annex14. confirm that annual growth rates between 1977 and 1987 averaged 12% for LPG, more than 4% for kerosene and nearly 9% for electricity. However, much slower growth already was apparent at the beginning of the 1980s. For example, the growth rate of LPG and kerosene sales during 1984- 87 was only one-half the average growth rate during 1977.1984. The Tertiall Sector 3.10 Future activity in the tertiary sector is expected to develop at a sustained pace, as in the past The sector's contribution to GDP has risen progressively from 48% in 1985 to 53% in 1988 and total value added in the sector has increased at an annual rate of 4.7% since 1984. Some subsectors have expanded even more rapidly, as is the case for hotels and restaurants, whose value added has increased by 14% p.a. over the past four years. This subsector is expected to expand even further with the implementation of tourism projects along the north coast of the country. On the othez hand, subsectors like the Turkish baths will develop less rapidly as more bathing facilities are installed in residences. 3.11 Anticipated growth in the tertiary sector will necessarily bring about an increase in its demand for final energy. Even so, this will not be the only factor affecting energ demand. The plans for developing use of natural gas and for energy conservation in the sector probably will have a significant Impact on .he structure of demand in the medium- to long-term. 3.12 However, it is difficult at present to generate reliable demand projections for the tertiary sector, for the following reasons: (a) There is no reliable data series for the sector with the exception of the 1987 energV *48 - balance presented in this report, prior energy balances for the tertiary sector have been established by default on the basis of information contained in national energy balances and energy balances for other sectors. (b) None of the studies or surveys of the sector undertaken to date has taken into account woodfuel consumption (except the surveys of restaurants and Turkish baths carried out during this study). (c) There is also no data series for the subsectors of the tertiary sector covering number of enterprises, energy intensity, categories of consumers, etc. (see para. 2.34 and 2.35). (d) STEG's objectives for natural gas penetration have yet to be clearly defined, mainly because the feasibility of gas penetration in several subsectors has not yet been ascertained. (e) Although the potential for energy savings identified in several audits is considerable, few recommendations have been implemented and it is too early to estimate the future impact of ongoing and anticipated audits. 3.13 The information available only allows for partial projections for particular subsectors and/or fuels. This is the case with natural gas penetration in the hotel subsector. Projections are based on the assumption that natural gas will be used in all new hotel capacity in the areas to which gas is distibuted; this new capacity amounts to 5500 beds per year in the short term. Assuming an average occupancy rate of 50% and average gas consumption of 2.5 en per hotel night (see Awea 6), projected annual increases in natural gas consumption within the subsector will amount to 2250 TOE, for a total increase of 29,250 TOE over 1987 levels by 2000 (Table2A). Given that consumption in existing hotels already connected to the gas distnbution network most likely will grow despite potential energy conservation measures which could be implemented, natural gas consumption in hotels could reach 50,000 TOE/year by the year 2000. 3.14 Available data also are sufficient to make estimates concerning electricity. According to data from STEG and INS, electricity demand in the tertiary sector grows at more than 6% per year, or 30% more rapidly than the growth of value added in the sector. General estimates of future trends in electricity consumption can be made based on this information: the total demand for the tertiary sector in terms of final energy could surpass 130,000 TOE/year (1510 GWh) in the year 2000, more than double the 1987 consumption. 3.15 On the other hand, with the exception of recent sales data for LPG and kerosene (AmnnxI14), there is little information to project petroleum product consumption in the sector. In the case of LPG and kerosene, both fuels are consumed almost totally by the residential and tertiary sectors. Thus, it is possible to compute an estimate of future tertiary demand by taking projections for the residential sector in Table 3.1 and subtracting them from the total projected consumption of the two fuels. As for other products, this type of calculation would become complicated, since the amounts which will be substituted by natural gas are difficult to estimate. Still, an estimated annual growth rate of 4%, slightly less than the growth of value added in the -49- sector, would bring the consumpton of petroleum products by the tertiary sector to more than 180000 TOE per year by the year 2000, an ilnrease of 70,000 TOE over current levels. 3.16 ITe projections and scenarios outined above are consoLidated in Iabl . 3 Accrding to this tablet the demand for fial energy in the tertiay sector probably wfll double in the next 15 years. It coud surpass 370,000 TOE/year by the year 2000, an increase of more than 180,000 TOE/year over 1987 levels, which corresponds to an average annual growth rate of 5.2%. his rate is slightly more than that of value added in the sector, which implies that the energy intensity of the sector will continue to grow. I iay demand, equivalent to 20% of the energy demand in the residential sector in 1987, thus could correspond to 30% of residential demand in the year 2000. able 3s FORECAST GOWN OF FINAL ENR CSUNPTI0N IN THE TERTIARY SECTOR (in thousands of ToE/year) Consaption Conrptlon DIfference 1987 Growth Assuaption 2000 1987-2000 Natural oa Notels 15.5 additioaml capacity of SO 35 5000 beds/year connected to gas grid others 3.4 dX per year 7 4 S/total as 18.9 5? 38 Petroleu products 110 4X per year 183 73 Electricity 62 6X per year 132 70 SECTOA BALANCE 190.9 372 181 (exctuding blmes) : Nission estlmtas and Tabte 2.5. B. Isues and Constraints of Ener8 Supplv in the Sectors 3.17 Based on the situation descibed in Chapter 2p existing and future issues and constraints of enerV supply in the residential and tertiary sectors are presented in what follows. The analysis s divided in three parts, dealing respectively with energy sources, end-use equipment and institutional aspect - s50 Regional Differences of Enviromental Impact 3.18 As stated above and estimated by the mission (paragraph 3.6), woodfuel demand In 1987 is equivalent to an offtake of 1.9 million tons of wood, or nearly 2A million n3. This offtake is expected to increase in the short term to reach 2.2 million tons in the year 2000. Without accurate data concerning wood availability (see para. 2.48 and 2.50), it is difficult at present to estimate the actual impact this offtake wil have on the Tunisian environment. Also it is difficut to separate quantitatively the role of wood-energy production from the other causes of forest resource degradation, such as overgrazing, land clearing for agriculture purposes, fires, etc. These activities usually play a dominant role in deforestation. 3.19 The impact of wood-energy production wll vary according to region. In the southern part of the country, insufficient forest resources is not a new phenomenon with the exception of the highlands where there are still several major forests. M/ Offtake for energy purposes only aggravates the situation, especially in semi-arid or arid regions. In the Central West, where remaining natural forest formations are concentrated mainly on hills and mountains, fuelwood is collected by local residents both for their own use and to be commercaized for supply to cities in the region, thus contributing to deforestation which already is quite advanced in some areas. This deforestation along ridges presents considerable dangers to the environment, including increased erosion and altered hydrological patterns. 3.20 Similar risks exst in localized pockets of the Northwest. However for the most part, this region - which comprises most of the countrys forest reserves - has a supply potential which is significanty greater than the local demand. Local woodfuel consumption thus does not represent a major threat to the environment. The situation is even more favorable in the Central East, in particular in the Sahel, where pruning of olive and almond trees generates several thousand tons of wood each year (see para. 2.51), far eceeding the quantities consumed locally. In that region, use of woodfuels is likely to be limited to the by-products of trimmings, thus exerting little additional pressure on the environment. Poor Monitoring and Contol 321 In 1988, the DOF marketed approximately 122,000 tons of wood-energy, of which only 33,000 tons was in the form of fuelwood (the rest, in theory, was used to produce charcoal). In addition, about 13,000 tons were marketed as construction or industrial wood. That same year, DOF estimated that an additional 500,000 tons was exploited under the system of "users domain". These figures are to be compared with consumption estimates for the same period: according to Table 3.1 consumption in the residential sector alone amounted to 1.14 million tons, or double M/ There are, for amample, foress of holm oaks at alttudes ove 1000 m. and Alep pines at altudes of SOO to 800 m. on the Haut Tell massi. - 51 - DOFs supply estimates. 3/ The differential is even larger for charcoal: charcoal permits were granted for production of 37,000 tons (28,000 tons using olive wood), whereas estimated conumption was nearly triple (110,000 tons). 3.22 It thus appears that the mechanisms for monitoring woodfuel production are not efficient. Even with the addition of wood generated from olive tree trimmings (825,000 tons/year. para. 2.51) to DO's above data, total supply reaches only 1.45 million tons, which is 25% less than cut demand of 1.9 million tons. Thus nearly 500,000 tons of wood are not accounted for each year by official controls It is possible that much of the charcoal consumed in rural areas is produced without a permit: wood used for this purpose is likely to come mainly from fruit trees, wind-break hedges or Isolated trees in fields. Much of the charcoal produced using olive tree trimmings also is likely to escape official controls. Finally, the useres domain itself could be subject to fraudulent practices and tenurial aspects should be reviewed (possibility of leasing state forest to private wood producers to achieve efficient and sustainable exploitation). 3.23 Thus, although local supply/demand balances for woodfuels may show a surplus in the Northwest and the Central-East, it will not be long before difficulties arise in these regions, also. In fact, the regions constitute the main supply sources for fuelwood and, especially, charcoal marketed in large urban areas, including the capitaL Since it is not possi'ble to pinpoint with accuracy the exploitation zones, it is difficult to ascertain i£, in these zones, the offtake of wood surpasses the regenerative capacity of forest reserves. Limited Prospects for Improvement in Efficiency of Cookstoves and Carbonization Techniques 3.24 The brief analysis presented above indicates the possible risks to the environment linked to woodfuel consumption. It is necessary to evaluate the extent to which offtake of wood can be reduced, one of the ways being improved efficiency in woodfuel production and use. The following conclusions could be drawn during the Study concerning improving the efficiency of (a) .wood and charcoal cookstoves, and (b) traditional carbonization techniques. 3.25 Imroved Stoves Two models of improved staves were developed during the Study, one to replace the three-stone stove and the other to replace the clay canoun. Both are inexpensive, simple (rustic) metal stoves which can easily be manufactured by craftsmen. Efficiency tests (see a J18) run on the stoves show savings of wood and charcoal reaching 30% to 50% (in the case of proper use of stoves). Unfortunately, trials to test the acceptability of these models for consumers in Kef and Cap Bon, regions where the three-stone stove and the canoun respectively are widely used, suggest that there is little chance of successfully distributing them. 3.26 In the case of the improved wood stoves, there appear to be two main factors limiting acceptability. The first arises from fuelwood's poor image. For most fuelwood consumers, use of wood is not a voluntary choice; rather it is a choice imposed by their modest incomes, which preclude purchase of other fuels when wood can be obtained free (users' domain). Second, the consumer also has little incentive to try a new wood stove which, even if improved in terms of / The level of fiwood conumon In the terty sector CaMOt be estimated, wih the txccpon of conmption by ukih baft which reached about 46,300 tons in 1987 (fnnex 8). -52 - efficiency, remains nrdimentary and far from an image of modernity. The third faetor is the price of the improved stove: although it is very inepensive, the alternative-te three-stone stove-is free. Here aga, the modest Income of the fuelwood consumer presents a major constraint: the household has more pressing expenses, so why, the consumer reasons, buy a stove which helps save a fuel that he/she doesn't pay for in the first place? 327 Different factors limit the acceptability of improved chacoal stoves. The clay canoun is a traditional appliance used primarily for making tea, which itself is a traditional and leisure acty. In addition, carcal expenditure for tea-making weighs little in the total budget of households. As a consequence, fuel saving is not a priority for the canoun user. Thus, it is unlikely that an improved charcoal stove can be successfully distributed in areas where the Sfax (metal) canoun * more efficient than the clay canoun - already has not scceeded in penetrating the market. 3.28 Improvd Carbonizaiogn Techniu. The carbonization yields obtained from the traditional earth kIlns by Tunisia's professional charcoal producers are very good for that type of technology (see para 2.58). Tlere are three reasons for this (a) the technica kmow-how of the producers, accumulated over many years (charcoal production is not a new activity in Tunisia); (b) the economics of high productivity, which induce the producer to produce as much charcoal as possible from a given quantity of purchased wood; and (c) the types of wood most often used (oak and olive), which carbonize well because of their high density and usually krv hunidity levell The efficiency of charcoal production by non-professional charcoalers is probably not as high as professionals' effiency. However, the former are usually scttered, produce small quantities, not as a permanent occupation (pat-time seasonal activity) and operate without permit; therefore, it would not be realistic nor justfied to target an improved charcoaling efficiency program on these producers. 3.29 Under these cirmstances, even though technical improvements are ahlays possible, it is unlikely that they would appreciably improve production yields. Any improvements would be gained through a more complex technology and at higher cost, which would severe limit financial viability and prospects of diffusion. Only adoption of semi-industril or full industrial carbonization techniques would sificantdy improve yields. However, implementation of this option would not be without its own complications - it would introduce new problems for collecting and transporting wood - and it is not clear that it would be economically viable. There is an additional environmental risk as compared to the current system, which uses relatively small scattered worksites. Implementation of a semi-indurl or industrial carbonization unit would generate a large, concentrated market for wood destined for carbonization, which would provide incentives for the neighboring population and merchants to over-exploit forest rvesres nearest the unit. Increasing Import 330 It is projected that Tunisia wil become a net energy importer of some 25 to 4 million TOE per year by 2001 (para 1.12). The resdential and tertiary sectors, whose consumption -53. of hydrocarbons is expected to increase at a sustained pace (4% p.a.), most certainly will affect the need for increased imports. Still, these will not be the only sectors affecting the most the energy balance: industry, generation of HV electricity and transport will weigh more heavily in the balance of payments. The projections presented above (lableL.3A and 12) show that hydrocarbon consumption in the two sectors wil go from 483,000 TOE/year in 1987 to about 830,000 TOE/year by the year 2000, assuming current growth trends. This represents an increase of nearly 350,000 TOE/year, equivalent to 10% of the net imports projected for that period. 3.31 Nevertheless, increasing the imports will be necessary and important for certain products. Indeed, the anticipated expansion of STIR's refinery capacity, from 1.5 million tons per year to 3 million, will be suffilci -t to cover the growth in kerosene demand, but not LPG and gs ol In the case of LPG, STIR's rroduction capacity will be augmented to 46,000 tons per year, but this increase will be offset by the gradual reduction of production from the Gabbs gas plant as reserves at El Borma are depleted. The DGE's projections for the structure of LPG supply are presented in Itak 3.3 and show that LPG imports will nearly double in the next eight years. As for gas oil, imports already represented nearly half the internal demand (A&nne%). Demand for gas oil is likely to grow by 4% per year, meaning that demand would double in just over 15 years. Thus, even though the refinery expansion will double local gas oil production, gas oil imports also will double over the next two decades. 3.32 The need for more LPG imports will increase existing congestion of Tunisia's ports, espedaly if LPG continues to be shipped in relatively small cargoes. As a result, the fees charged for delayed offloading will only increase. 3/ Thus, use of larger tankers for LPG imports should be considered in order to relieve somewhat the port congestion and reduce transport costs. DGE already has recommended that a 4000-ton tanker be purchased (currently LPG import cargoes are between 700 and 1700 tons). 3.33 Increased imports in addition to continuing production will also mean increased environmental risks. Oil spills are at stake in oil production and storage facilities, especially offshore. The 1989 World Bank Country Environmental Study has recommended a number of preventive measures to limit such risks. Inadequate LPG Storage and Bottling Facilities 3.34 The projected increase in LPG demand will tend to aggravate current shortages in existing stock capacity (para. 2.70). DOE's estimates of the evolution of :hese shortages are presented in Table 3A. The estimates show that an additional 14,200 tons of capacity will be needed by 1996 - nearly equivalent to existing capacity - assuming there are no changes in demand trends or existing capacity. DOE also estimates that by 1996, distributor and STIR stocks Wil be reduced to about 17 and 7 days respectively: this is far below the legal requirement of one month's security stocks 3.35 DGE has estimated that at least TD 12 million in cumulative investments will be required by 1996 to cover projected capacity shortages for LPG stocks. Investments would include V/ 'hese charges were TD 1/ton in 1985, but had reached TD 3.3/tbla In 1983. - 54 - a 7700-ion addition to the capacity of depots in the north and creation of a new 5500-ton depot in the Sahel region. Moderate shortages will continue in the south, however, and new investments Wi not be sufficient to meet legal requirements for security and bottle stocks. 3.36 Abl 3.A also shows that an estimated 1.9 million 13 kg bottles will have to be reflled during peak peiods to satisfy demand in 1996. This total represents a shortfall of 300,000- 13 kg botdes relative to the combined filling capacity of the five existing centers The shortfall could be alleiated either by operating eisting centers for two more hours each day, or by con- structing a new filling station with a capacity of 1300-13 kg bottles per hour. The latter solution would require a TD S million investment, according to DOE's estimates. TabI lo.3: FORECAST LPG SUPPLY 1988 1992 1996 (tons) (X) (tons) CM (tam) (X) Production S11R 32,700 163 4,000 19X 6.000 173 Production Gabs Factory 53,300 26X 3r,000 16" 22,000 As Ilwortations 116,000 573 154,000 65X 209,000 753 Toatl I 202,000 100l 237,000 100l 277,000 1003 IV Global growth rate: 4X/year. s3 : Energy Generat Directorate, SE. .55. Iable 3.4 FORECAST REQUIR LPG STORING AND FILLtIlJ CAPACITY Unit 1909 1992 1996 Forecast LPG essrption g tons/year 210,000 237,000 277,000 (all. sect) STORA": Existing storag capacity: tons 21,000 21,000 21,000 includirg distributors tons 15,000 15,000 15,000 STIR tos 6,000 6,000 6,000 storage needs w tons 26,400 30,700 35,200 fncluding distributors tons 23,500 26,300 30,800 STIR tons 2,900 4,400 4,400 Storag deficits tons (5,400) (9,700) (14,200) including North tons (2,300) t5,400) (7.700) Canter (Sfax) tons (4,200) (4,800) (5,500) S0uth (Gabs) tens 1,270 SOO (1,000) FILLING: Existing filling capacity 13kg8bot./month 1.600000000 1,600,000 Filling needs ) 13kg bot./month 16 1U640.000 101,8,000 Filling deficit 13kg bot./month 139,000 (40,000) (318,000) BO TTLES ES d/ 13ka bot,ver 206.0100 224.000 261.000 V) Consuqption ge-eth rate estimated at 4% per year. kI Security stock a I month of sales during previwus year. NinimA reserve of bottles at estimated at 10 day of sales for the distributors and 5 days for the STIR. 9J Sales of 13kg refills * 90% of total ornsumptien. Fillting needs in peak period - 10% Of anul cosAptien. SV Bottle rate of rotation a 5.5 time per year. Repaocement rate - 3.5% of all bottles a"ry year. Source: Estimates of Energy Genefal Directorate, SENE. 3.37 The price structues of the main hydrocarbons used in the residential and tertiazy secors (see Table 2.6) iustrate the eeisting distortions betwee CIF import prices, ex-renezy prices, and retai prices. These distortions give certain sgals to consumers: (a) LPG is favored over krosene in the residential sector: the differential 31/ between the economic cost of the two products were reflected at the retail level, then LPG would be priced at TID 59/TOE more than kerosene Le. about 30% more j7/ Se tho cost of LG on th mmak kt is hiWh volai (much more tban t cost of kerosene), tho above difference can vsywidety on a monthl bas For ntace, in Januazy and Februy 991, the cost of W (FOB n) was about US200/t hihr ta the comt of kerosene, whie in lune 1 LPG costed US$0/ton less thankero e Howe an anals on a longer priod sos that d cP oasm of both fel tend to be at the same level (eg about US$200TOEH in PFduy 199), wh would maintain In average dte above menoned difere, of about D60.70/TOB In favour of kerosene in tams of economic cos at relleveL -56 - (when the current differential is TD 29/TOE ie. 15% more) and thus LPG would be less attractive; the distortion clearly favors the wealthier households (main users of LPG) while penalzing the low-income ones. (b) Pricing favors the use of kerosene by certain tertiary sector establishments instead of or in combination with, gas oil; this is especially the case for hot water heating in some Turkish baths. Normaly, kerosene use should be reserved for households. 3.38 These distortions occur largely because the Oovernment fixes both STIR's purchase price for crude oil and its ex-refinery prices for different products. Without analytic accounting data, it is difficult to determine the real economic costs of refinery operations, product by product, which should orient the fixation of ex-refinery prices by the Government. Still, STIR's refining costs appear excessive when compared with those of other Mediterranean refineries; M/ Excessive local costs mainly are the result of overstaffing and some run-down or obsolete equipment, and they partly explain why ex-refinery prices, with the exception of LPG, are fixed at levels significantly higher than the CIF import cost. Constraints to Natural Gas Penetration 3.39 Natural gas penetration has been succesful in the hotel sector: at present, an estimated 80% or more of all hotels are connected to the network in areas where gas is distributed. R/ This level of penetration most certainly was achieved because the policy to promote gas was well conceived: in the first phase, STEG paid - with financial assistance from the World Bank - for all conversion costs (connections, regulator and internal piping) of hotels constructed before 1983, some 200 in number. However, these benefits gradually have been elininated. During the second phase and for hotels built between 1983 and 1986, STEG only paid for connections and regulators Hotels constructed since 1987 must assume all conversion investments themselves. Nevertheless, given natural gas' low cost to the users, new hotels usually take the gas option. 3.40 By contrast, natural gas penetration into the residential sector has encountered real difficulties. The numbers confirm this: urban areas along the exsting pipeline include some 320,000 households, whereas the number of residential gas customers totaled about 35,000, less than 12% of the potential market. In addition, after a steady increase from 1850 new customers in 1984 to 3200 in 1987, an average of 20% per year, new connections slowed in 1988 -only 2000 new customers were connected to a distribution network initially designed to accommodate 3500. 3.41 Yet, with current energy prices, natural gas used for cooking, water heating and space heating yields a clear financial advantage relative to LPG and other petroleum products (Table 2.6). Ihus, it is apparent that the costs of connection and internal piping are the main constraints to more rapid penetration of this fuel into the residential sector. In fact, in contrast / The poor elaive performance of Tunas ref inmy was underscored between 1979 and 1983, when ETAP processed Tunisan crude in other Mediterranean refineries and thus was able to compare the coos and opu with that of srl 2/ In Sousse, Hammnet, Nabeul and Monastir, the level of peneaon is 95%; in TunM, it is 80%. -57- with STEGs inta polc for hotel converdon, these ratvely hiA costs with few exceptions - must be borne entirely by the consumer. 3.42 In economic terms, the averag incremental cost of gs distribution to households should be lower than the difference between the cost of dirbuted LPO and the border price of natural gs, L.e about DT150/TOE in 1988, equvaent to about DT4 per 1000 cubic feet of gs This is likely to be achieved only in new, high density dweling (e.g buildings) with upper range enera consumption for both cooking and water heatin Ts has been cofirmed by economic studies of gas ditution performed bySTEG sce the completion of this Study. 3.43 The cost of coneting a household to the existing gS mains include work done by both STEG and priate contractrs (generdy plumbers to in internal piping). STWs connection ta are standard: they vaty from TD 50 for an apartment in a new development where gas distribution has been integrated Into the consion, to TID 370 for houses located within 30 meters of the mains. For longer distances, tarifs are based on specific cost estimates established by STEG. af 3r5 gives three eamples where the price paid by the customer varies from TD 155 to TD 470. The costs of interior piping IQ/ depend on the configuraton of the house or apartment and on the gas end-uses. For a small lodgings where gas is used only for cooking, the ave cost is about TD 350 to TID 400; costs can reach TD 700 to TID 800 for a house with a gas fae. Thus, in the most favorable case - small apartment with only gs cooking - the minimum price paid by a now customer s TID 400 to TD 450 for connection and interior piping, not including possible cotversion coots for repacing household appliances. Ihe price of conecton and interior piping can exceed TD 1000 for a house with central heating The obstacle of hig connecdon osts could be lessened by integating a monthly payment to the SEG bin over a period of one or two years; however, this payment shoud not be integrated into the s tariff itsel sioe this would produce an economic distorsion. Irjg 35 AWMS OF NAURAL Sa CON0I11N COS IN tI EstDENtiAL sO * ..en stftrb .jt.lhiton Total Total Price Typo of tuw leth cost leth cot Diver l t length cost pald Place (date) oB"ing omect CMt) (DT) (M) (DT) (DT) (mt/user) CDT/uwe) (DT/user) National gard art. 162 660 20,56S 465 3.767 13.768 W 7 235 lss El Acuina (June 87) auurth (sept. a8) hous 3M 960 27,488 9,822 74,875 38,678 34 470 Bizerte (July 88) hous 175 - 4,850 37718 2,864 a 232 370 gi Includfn costs of pevewmnt and sfdtlk repairing. k Including nine mall head pfpes. PM : EG lnvolcse, Depatment of an Studies. Q/ lids comprises all tatladowo* done woid the confns of th proprty boundus lteo cua of a house, or, Matg~from do 0* of th iadlng In hM of an aparnoz 58 - 3.44 These prices can be compared with the household ependitures (1mia.1I). For a middle lass family of five or s the ouday necessy to have gas cooking represents, in the majority of cases, more than their average annual housing expenditure and nearly five times more hn the total annual energy ependiture. Indeed, STEG offers an intallment plan for repayment over 20 bi-monthly periods, but this only covers STEG's part of the connection charges. Similar payment facilities are not offered by the private contractors, although their charges represent most of the connection cost. 3.45 Thus there is no bona fide Incentive poly for promoting natural pas usage in the resdential sector. In addition to insufficient financial Incentives, there is no campaip to inform customers of the benefits of using gs, and the polic for distributing gas in cities and towns does not seem based on constant cAteria anymore. It seems, therefore, that there is still considerable work to be done to achieve SEMEs objectives, though modest: triple the number of pas customers by the year 2000 and increase the target growth rate from 5000 new customers per year during the Seventh Plan (1987.1991) to 10,000/year during the Ninth Plan (1997-2001). 3.46 Continued economic development in Tunisia together with population grwth and development of electicity distribution wil combine to sustain growth in electicity consumption. Since 1980, the total demand for electricity has grown annually by 7%, a rate considerabW higher than growth in total demand for all forms of energy combined (32% p.). Similary, the relative energy intensity of electidity in the economy 41/ is currently increasing by 3% per year, whereas the overall energ intensity (all forms of energy) shows a slight decrease. According to projectons provided by SEME and SIEG, electicity demand should grow at an average annual rate of 65% during the next decade; total demand should reach 8600 GWh in 2001, almost double the demand in 1988 (3800 GWh). These projections are based on the hypothesis that electricywill reach 97% of all households by that date (xluding dised households in rral areas). 3.47 Demand growth of this magnitude should be accompanied and monitored in order to minimize energy losses and to avoid mistakes in both technical energy choices and in building and equipment design, with the goal of limiting already high investment requiements for generation (para 1.26). For their greater convenience at the least cost, households should be able to have a choice of well-priced, durable appliances with guaranteed levels of energy effiency. The tertiazy sector establishments, both public and private, should offer the best service and best convenience to the user, while simultaneously minimzing their elecricity expenditureL Need for Load Management 3.48 STW already has achieved considerable progre in managing load growth (especially peak load) and reducing distriution losses (pam. 2.94). At present, STEG keeps dlose tabs on demand and is actively developing mechanisms for (a) tracking peak demand, (b) proecti / EnaV iten*y is d ied as Me quantity of .nr consmed pa ui of GDP. 59 - demand, and (c) managing demand through incentives (tariffs, conservation policies) or direct action (load shedding by remote control during peak hours). In order to succeed in these endeavors, STEG has identified two priorities: (a) A data bank covering electric household appliances should be created. This has been started partially during this Study and should be complemented with the results of the SIEG's 1989 survey; however mechanisms for annually updating the data bank have yet to be implemented. (b, Sectoral load curves need to be established: In-depth knowledge of the load curve for each sector is indispensable for accurate interpretation of structural changes in the aggregate curve, for determining load curves and demand projections, and for optimizing the utility's technical load management ability. 3.49 STEG is measuring loads in new samples and analyzing data to establish load curves by customer class. The objective is to be able to simulate future load curves using simple models which combine representative curves from homogenous customer clas STEG's technical resources - software, microcomputers, plotters - appear sufficient for the task. ConsteraitconJL nected Rural Electrifi'catign 350 Although STEG's objectives for electrification are quite ambitious, it is estimated that between 250,000 and 300,000 households still will not be connected to the electric power grid by the end of the Seventh Development Plan (1987-1991). Most of these households are scattered in distant rural locations (Annex10,), where the costs of extending the electricity grid are very high. In addition, their electricity consumption will not generate sufficient revenues to cover these costs. Thus, these households could only be connected to the grid if large subsidies were provided. 3.51 By contrast, decentralied systems such as photovoltaics may offer a least cost solution for providing electricity to small consumers dispersed throughout rural areas. The AME, with assistance from the GTZ 42/i has Initiated a demonstration project in the Kef Governorate. Both one- and two-panel systems have been installed, capable of proving enough power for basic needs such as lighting, radio and television. These systems costs between US$500 and US$1100 A prelminay analysis of the economic viability of this option is given below. New and Renewable Energy A Maket for Decentralized Photovoltaic Systes 3.52 Photovoltaic systems could be used to supply low-level electricity to scattered consumers for which prevailing low levels of demand made clasic rural electrification non 021 SpOd Enua PoPm (SEP). -60 a economicaly feasible. The Study's economic analysis tak Into account the additional investment needed for this type of equipment; it is based on the cost of the sermice provided rather than the cost per kWh, because electricity consumption of households equiWpped with photovoltaic systems is much lower than the consumption of households connected to the grid. The analysis shows that: (a) For modest consumption corresponding to four hours of daily usage for lighting (equivalent to two incandescent 75 W lamps) and a television set (Le. about 7.5 kWh per month), photovoltaics prove less epese than extending the grid if service is provided to fewer than 20 to 25 customers per km of MV line, widt a worst month solar radiation of 4 to S kWh/m/dar, (b) However, the costs of a photovoltaic system are proportional to the daily load, whereas the cost of a connection to the grid is relatively independent of the load. Thus, the economic viability of the solar option decreases rapidly for higher levels of specific consumption: when the monthly load is increased by another 16.5 kWh, 4/ photovoltaics will no longer be competive with extending the grid if the number of customers served rises above 5 to 6 per km of MV line. 3.53 Thus, the economic viability of photovoltaic systems is highly sensitive to the daily load of the user. The potential market for these systems will depend on the level of electric service desired by the consumers. In addition, systems can be installed only if the cost are assumed by the consumers themselves and/or if the Government subsidizes them or sets up credit facilities. As a result, although there are Tunisian households for whom photovoltaics certaily constitute the least cost option for electricity supply, the actual size of this market currently is not known with any acuracy. A proper evaluation will be possible once ongoing studies within the AME/GIZ project are completed. Limited Market for Solar Water Heaters 3.54 . Solar water heaters have been in use in Tunisia since 1985, and sufficient data has been generated to establish their development potentiaL At present, the number of installations (about 7,000 in 1989) is equal to 10% of households using electric water heaters (assuming 1984 equipment levels - Table 2.1). This is a substantial penetration level after only three to four years; it is much higher than penetration levels in countries like the United States, where the solar water heater induskty has existed for more than 15 year Current incentive polides, such as the exemption from custom duties for primary materials used to manufature solar water heaters, thus appear justified and well adapted: they should be continued as is The same holds for installed industrial capacity, which is viable and suficient to cover present demand. It is unlikely that the market will develop more rapidly as long as eneqy prices stay at current levels. However, should the situation change, the technolog and sklls necesay to respond rapidly to market growth wil already be in place. a/ Such a loed bree would be equWaent to fbe addkionl high effcien lamps P for four hour each day). .61 . 3.55 The financial and economic viability for individual and collective solar water heaters was assessed during the study. i/ Both economic and financial analyses show similar rates of return, suggesting that the Government's pofices regarding solar water heating production and use are sound. 3.56 Simulated comparisons of individual water heaters show that new or, even retrofit, solar water heaters are not competitive with natural gs- or LPG-fueled water heaters. Comparisons with electric water heaters are more favorable; however, the comparison does not justify retrofitting an existing electric heater, but does show that the solar heater competes well with its electric counterpart at the time of initial purchase. Thus, the market for individual solar water heaters appears to be limited by: (a) in general terms, the fact that few households have water heaters (less than 15% in 1984); (b) in specific terms, the fact that few households use electric water heaters (about 5% of total households in 1984); (c) the solar water heater's only marginally better rate of return relative to electric water heaters; (d) the eistence of alternatives which are economically and financially more favorable, such as natural gas or LPG heaters. 3.57 On the other hand, the initial investments required for solar water heaters do not appear to be a constraint. STEG offers very attractive financial terms (10% down payment, the balance paid a higlly favorable 6.15% interest rate), with payments incorporated into the regular electriity bill These terms have even more appeal to households now that SIEG's special tariff for electric water heaters has been eliminated. 3.58 Comparisons between collective solar water heaters and alternatives give similar results. The solar option is not cost-effective for hotels when compared with natural gas water heaters. On the other hand, it is competitive for esablishments which do not have access to gas and which use gas oL Tbus, as with individual solar water heaters, the market appears limited. HQlseold Applinces Isficient Control of Ouality 3.59 Locally produced household appliances are relatively efficient, as most Tunisian manufcturs are licensed by large, competitive (prima*) European manufaturer In general I/ Sur Md n and *Aj fldnzA deo Iafaon ol pour s s r6sdenti etetmaim ean n, Sadok caher4 July 196. * 62 - local manufacturers have small testing stations in their factories an(' have implemented basic quality control procedures. In addition, uniform standards have been developed for specific appliances. 3.60 However, available testing equipment does not allow accurate measurements, and as long as the certification process to ensure conformity with standards does not operate, quality guarantees remain limited. Also, AME cannot publish the data on appiiance energy efficiency unless they are certified according to INNORPI procedures and thus, these data cannot be used by either consumers or manufacturers 4M/. Another problem arises because manufacturers do not have the equipment to control the quality of imported parts. Thus, appliances may be prone to breakdowns or premature obsolescence, which cannot be discovered by advance testing. Low Productivity in Local Manufacturing 3.61 Household appliances were first manufactured in Tunisia by state enterprises created in 1975; these enterprises have progressively been required to compete with and largely have been supplanted by private companies. At present, three state enterprises, which often depend on government subsidies for their survival, and a dozen p.ivate companies share the market for different appliances. Together they form the Trade Association for Appliance Manufacturers (within the UTICA), which represents their in-terests at the national and regional levels. 3.62 The low productivity of local enterprises is translated into either high retail prices or poor financial performance when the market or the company's contractual arrangements limit the retail price. Although labor costs are low, they cannot offset low productity caused by underutilized capital which in turn is caused by the limited size of the Tunisian market. In addition, the cost share of locally produced parts used in manufacture (level of integration) remains low to average. It appears difficult however to increase the current level of integration for most appliances. Local enterprises will continue to import parts - malufactured in Europe or elsewhere for much larger markets - at unbeatably low prices (due to modern manufacture technologies) which cannot be offset by Tunisia's low labor costs. 3.63 Providing incentives for increased competition among firms is not an easy solution either, given that the market is limited by the number of households and by their purchasing power. Whether it concerns water heaters, refrigerators, heating or cooling systems, improvements to productivity can be obtained only if the market were expanded beyond the geographic boundaries of Tunisia. In fact, after the starting liberalization of trade between North African countries, imports of cheaper, good quality appliances from Libya already present serious competition for local manufacturers. 3.64 Finally, although technical audits of local enterprises could be undertaken in the hope of improving productivity, they are unlikely to prove of much benefit. An audit can be very useful for public enterprises, where technolag and incentives for innovation are limited; it is less useful for companies who manufacture under licensing agreements with technical assistance from 4§/ Since field work compledon of ftis Study, some progrss has been made i. baht respect; thus, the INNORPI has prepared methods for meaurg the performance of va types of household electric appiances, induding anges and ovens, fas water heaters, washing machines and others Also, several exiting norms have now been homolopted. 63 - top Europen manufacturers. It would be all the more helpful to make marginal improvements in the choice of components, o tion of production and management. The main problem remains the economic viability of industries operating in a tight market. Survival of these industries depends n a certain lvel of protection vis-a-vis imports. Inallation Costins 3.65 Household appliances are marketed by distributors, wholesalers and/or retailers, 4i/ who provide service after purchase. Good quality servicing of appliances is relatvely easy, as there are not many different models on the market. However, distributors generally do not install household appliances. 3.66 Installing household applia2ces is performed by plumber/heating technicians and by electricians Approximately thirty companies currently perform complex installations, such as central heating and air conditioning in tertiary sector buildings. These compaies often combine the work of both plumber and electrician. The other companies are very small in size Qess than five employees). 3.67 Installers are not sufficiently regulated (epecilly in the artisanal sector), so that tecical qualifications are variable from one company to another. With the development of electricity and natural gas use, safety requirements for installations are strongly needed. For now, istalers tre not required to be Licensed or have special training in safety standards for electicity and gas. In addition, there is no regulatory procedure for verifying internal installations. Institutional ArrnaeMents Lack of AdeMa Data 3.68 Ihe lack of adequate, reliable data bases charting past and present actit in the residential and tettiary sectors has been discussed in the preceding chapters. Also, the situation is characterized by a lack of coordination among organizations such as the AME, STEG, the petroleum distritktors and the INS, in the preparation of surveys, polls and other data collection activities. Finaly, it should be noted that AME does not have a divison which truly spedalizes in designing and organizing surveys and polls and in processing data. 3.69 These deficiencies related to data and coordination lead to each orgaization tending to use its own data, which can vary significantly from one agency to another Tbis brings about obvious difficulties in establbhing with any precision sectoral energy balances which correspond not Only with one another, but also with the global energy balance. Still, these sectoral balances are indispnsable prerequisites for planning all strategies and investments. The recently created National Energy Observatory (ONE) should improve the situation through the use of eisting M/ Appraal 1200 dsiut are affilitd with th tMCA and a repsented by svea trd union baed anthotp4oprodua Ditiutio magis fxed by decr at th Mnfty of Commer, ar dvided between wholas and retaler -64 - institutionalized! uvys (STEJ, INS, etc) and the implementation of specific polls/swveys and targetd marketing studies. StEnard and Bodo=Q Km=au Radgth 8NW Comm"an 3.70 Ito lisoian Oovernment, in particular through the work of the INNORPI has started implemeng standards for household appliances. Standards based on international norms have arady been implemented for incandescent and fluorescent lights and refrigerators, and are being elaborated for other appliances, with the exception of water heaters, space heaters and cookstoves. In addition, alhouh cetifation is underway (lhts, refrigerators, washing machines), no crtificate veriying conformity with standards has been granted, as there are no laboratories with the appropriate testing facities. 3.71 Ilementation of standards could have an impact on the energy performance of applances by eliminating low-performance equipment from the market (refrigeraors for example). In Tnisia, this impact would be limited, however, given the similarities between applanes made in Tunisia and European models, which in theory are subject to standards with strict energy efficiency requirements. 3.72 lTe other sphere affected by inadequate regulation and standardization is building construction. Construction is subject to several technical regulations, mainly affecting safety and material quality, but at present there are no thenral reguations. Thus, errors can result if residential and tertiary sector building are not desged according to the Mediterranean climate requirements for thermal efficiency. Actually, energy audits in the tertiary sector have identified a substantial potential for savings attainable by inslating buildings The audits also show that heating and cooling systems often are over-sized relative to the building's requirements Finaly, St should be noted that architects do not have measring instruments or software to test the thermal impacts of various construction design options. Limitations of MandatLor Enrgy Audits 3.73 Current legislation requies that all tertiary sector establisments consuming more than 500 TOE annually be auditecL Sity-three ebm fa in this category (hotels, hospitals, administrative buiding). Nearly thirty establishments have been visited by experts performing sinple energy audits Only a doaen in-depth audits and full feasiity studies have been performed to date. In addition, program contracts offered to the clients outline the financial benefits offered by AME in ecange for their investment commi t Tese benefits are the folowmg: (a) Audits are financed at 50%, with a ceiling of TD 5000; in-depth feasility studies are financed at 50%, with a ceilng of TID 20,000; training fianced at 50%, with a celing of TD 20,000. -65- (b) For implementation of audit recommendations, bank loans can be obtained at 7% instead of about 13% (for most regular loans in the sector); and biateral cooperation agreements can provide additional access to low-interest credit. 47/ (c) Some equipment, such as solar water heaters, have special financing arrangements M/, pecdally for hotels, hospitals, pools, and sports complexes. 3.74 However, although the legislation currently is in effect, only a handful of the required audits have been carried out. In addition, the financial benefits have not had the anticipated incentive effect; only three energy saving program contracts have been signed with hotels (as opposed to seven signed with industies). Thus, few enerV conservation investments have been realzed, which require significant external expenditures for the establishment. The most important energy management actiity achieved in the terta sector thus remains the conversion to natural gas. 3.75 Defining and promoting innovative financing mechanisms would help to effectively implement energy saving programs that have been identified through the audits and were not implemented. Third-party financing programs involving the energy service firms and the private sector could probably be set up (provided adequate measuring and sharing of achieved savings are defined) and encouraged by Government support through financial incentives, technical and promotional assistance and loan guarantees. Utility financing programs could also be devised (loans, rebates); however, this requires that the regulatory framework as well as the tariff structure and fixing allow the utility to recover the costs of such programs. CommunictinotrI&M 3.76 Since its creation, AME has led four large publcity campaigns with diverse themes ranging from household appliances to tansportation. The message for household appliances basically concerned choice and usage. About 150,000 fliers were produced and distributed through STEG, in mal gs with bills or by its district offices. The messages were designed by AME in collaborAtion with the produces Intemews with numerous professionals as well as contacts with the general public show that AME is well-known because of its public relations actions, especialy its telesision spots. 3.77 It is important to note, however, that social marketing is still new in Tuniia Past communications have been rather didactic and authortarian in tone; television commercials were introduced only recently. Use of modern communication methods thus is relatively new in Tunisia, and it has yet to be improved in legal, technicl or aesthetical terms In addition, the target audiences still are not well known: there have been no studies to categorize them according to socio-cultural, socio-economic or geographic groups, and it is difficult to identify leverage groups. Finally, the general public has only just discovered marketing tools such as pubLicity spots, and it seems that audiences are taken in by their novelty without any guarantee that they really receive the message. a/ A special revolg ared fiud is planned, but bu not ygt been ImpleMented LI Also, some compos wm eve=uae be ornped fom hpt taff, such as fluocompact lamps and flow controlin A list of aexmptedl ts beig pfepared (seo a a_td Is in 1A5). -66 - IV. ENERGY MANAGEMENT STRATEGY IN THE RESIDENTAL AND TERTIARY SECTORS 4.1 In order to tacle the problems descnbed in the previous Chapter, the strategy should pursue the following specific objectives, which are incorporated in the development objecdves descrbed in Chapter L (a) better management of wood resources, by reducing unmonitored exploitation, conserving wood where possible and necessary, and rationally developing resources wherever potential is sufficient; (b) conserve hydrocarbons and electricity by encouraging the use of more efficient energy appliances and distnbution systems; (c) encourage use of substitution fuels which are most economic for both the consumer and the pubLk at large, in order to slow demand for higher cost fuel; (d) limit heating and air conditioning requreements in buildings; and, (e) strwigthen AME capacity for statistical data collecting and procesing in the residential and tertiary senors. Strate* Components 42 In order to achieve the objectives outlined above, several strategy elements are proposed which take into account the constraints in each sector, as dicussed in the previous chapter. The proposed energy management strategy for the residential and tetiary sectors comprise seven action programs as follows: (a) rational management of wood energy resources; (b) energy conseration in the residential sector, (c) energy conservation in the teriary sector, (d) development of kerosene for cooking; (e) development of natural gas in the residential and tertiary sectors; - 67 - (f) building design adapted to the climate; and (g) institutional support. Detailed descriptions of the programs are given in Annex I Rational Management of Wood Energy Resources 43 Currently, rational use of wood resources has been hindered by insufficient information concerning the biomass resource base and by poorly monitored forest exploitation. The feasibilty of disseminating simple improved stoves and more efficient carbonization techniques appears very limited. Areas in which wood conservation appear achievable are cooking tabouna bread and certain applications in the tertiary sector, such as water heating in Moorish baths. Also, there is probably a market for modem wood stoves in rural areas where petroleum product supply is difficult and wood is the least-cost solution. 4.4 As a result, the strategic options which constitute the action program for rational management of wood energy resources are: (a) improve regulation (including tenurial aspects) and the exsting fiscal system, and strengthen control of charcoal production and marketing to better monitor charcoal supply 42/. Forestry exploitation thus will be encouraged in areas where wood potential is most favorable and offtake limited to the real regenerative capacity of the resource. In the zones that are the most at risk, reforestation actions would probably be also needed; (b) study the feasibility of conserving wood used in cooking tabouna bread and in certain tertiary activities such as Moorish baths; and (c) study the market for modem wood-fired appliances in order to improve fuelwood's image, facilitate rational exploitation of local wood resources in areas where it is abundant (North West and Sahel regions), and slow substitution by imported energy Energy Conservation in the Residential and Tertiary Sectors 4.5 The conservation potential for hydrocarbons and electricity in the residential and tertiary sectors is mixed. In the residential sector, the household appliances currently available on the Tunisian market are generally energy efficient, and the possibilities for further reducing specific consumption are marginal. Quality and performance standards for appliances are being implemented but, at present, they are insufficiently developed to either guarantee future energy 42/ The DOF is cufrently planning to reform fiscal and control aspecs of woodfuel production and transport through a decro to complement the ForesLy Law that was enacted In 1988. 5_/ Actionr to promote improved or modern wood-fired appliances shouk buld on the results obtaed by AMWs GTZsupported Spedal Energy Progam (see Amnex 19). -68. performance or de consmer and m ufers' choics There is a rather substantial enery savinw potental i terta soctr e hs; ploitation of di potential is not yet wel advanced, howa. nThe strateg elements ii the action plan to addres this situation are: (a) set up a regulation and certification stem to pamntee. energy efficin of household applincs and to inform and make coners and merhants aware of the specific cons uption of the applianesthat y purchase orsel 1/; and (b) sbteahen and suppt the program contra procedure With iplentngagencies in c',Ar to stmulate energ conservation investments in now estalhents of the tert.ay sector. 4.6 ohe first element wil be implemented under the energy conservation program in the residential sector. T1hi progrm Includes components for monitoring energ demand in households; for reguation standardition, and labellig of household appliances; for traing and licensing iaers; for oonsumers' information campas on more efficient equipment and Government measres; and for nedations with household appliance man rers 4.7 The second element wi be implemented under the eneray conservaton program in the tertai sector. This program wil mosty be beneficial to larger terw y sector establishments In addition to using program contracts to more closely link prelininaty studies (diagnosis, detailed audits) with investments, the pogmm also includes spport in the form of financing organtion, technical assine, information ion and training and liensing of installers Dopment g£ Kerame,e Natral Gas and Ehotovoltaics 4.8 Kerosene and natual gs have been targeted as more cmst-effective substitution enery soures. The current sbstitution of kerosene-a locally produced, inepensve fuel-by LPG is not emnomily al The inferior quality of the kerosene cookers used in Tuisia parially acounts for this phenomenon Natual gas is also a relatively cost-effective fue, but its penetration in the d nal sctor has been eecialy slow due to hig initial connection costs and lack of information for consumes Actions also are being undertaken to develop use of solar energy, especal photavoltaic systems. te strategy elements to devlop ue of more cost-effective substitution enerV source ar (a) develop and market moderm kerosene cookers whicb offer greater convenience and enr efficiency so as to reduce witching to Imported LPG, (b) Imlement additional icentive measres and provide acutomers with greater infrmation to encouage natural gas penetration in the residential and tertiazy / To da 0ffeU sh dm ban azsd by AUWa DURE an equipment La t h widaiy senor wA be my asL - 69 - (c) pursue ongoing programs and projects for solar water heaters and assess the market of decentzed photovoltaic systems. 4.9 The first element wil be implemented as part of the kerosene development program. This program indludes an in-depth market study for kerosene cookers and the local manufacturing possibilities, as wel as support operations to influence use of the cookers: incentive polcies (fiscal aspects, fuel prices and stove prices), promotion campaigns aimed at consumers, and information for manufacturing and distribution professionals. 4.10 The second element wil be implemented under the natural gas development program for the residential and tertiaty sectors This program already is a priority for STEG, as it is an integral part of the utility's plans for developing natural gas use for electricity generation and in industry. The program proposed in this report is limited to remmendations for market studies and promotion campaigns 4.11 Current incentive policies for solar water heaters are justified and weHl aetpted and should suffice for continuing development in the use of this technology. Concerning phc - -oltaics, which is a viable option for decentralized rural electrifiction, the scope of its potential market has yet to be estimated accurately. Current trials using small individual generators, (AME/GOZ project) will allow to better discern the market and to develop low cost, tcnicaly viable systems which meet consumer needs. M/ In addition, it wil be important to evaluate accurately households' needs, their reactions to proposed products, their sensitiity to product prices and their real ability to pay all or part of associated costs Finally, it also will be important to consider distribution and maintenance aspects, which could present difficulties in dispersed rural areas far from main urban centers While building on the results of the AME/GT Zproject, a global asment of the market for photovoltaic systems is necessary, as well as tu-e i ',entification of adequate strategies to foster its development. icient Building Design 4.12 At prsent, Little has been done to meet the objective of reducing heating and cooling requirements for buildings No in-depth studies of the thermal quality of construction in lunisia have been undertaken. There are no thermal regulations, and principies of design adapted to the climate which affect heating and cooling systems are not ahways rigorously applied. 4.13 Thus, design and construction regulations are sorely needed; their implementation is the objective of the program for adapted building design. This program has four components: bio-clmatic urbanism, design tpecficatons or codes, material selection, and design of energy equipment. Also included in the program are: research on conditions for comfort and on design rules, specification of standards and labelling methods for buildings and heating/cooling equipment, as wel as design and d tion of technical documents for professional The program wfll W gAcordg to suiveys cared in dte Kf reion, where but S houOlds wi not ave eicWty duing de neat ten years (out of 250,000 households in ach a dtuation at national le and where the AMB/GTZ Pret has istal sd monod photovot q tems In 90 household4 k was found that betwee 30 and 50% of theme households hav -r"ed upadiue (ligt radio teeisin) equhvat to the amoted cost of photovoc s"em (about DT1S per month). 70 - coordinte with and complement the regional EC-funded study on Ihermal Analysis and Eicient Building Desip in Maghreb countries, which has been launched recently (see paragraph 136). 4.14 Institutional support for AME is planned as the seventh component of the strategy. A better understandig of the residential and tertiary sectors is needed, eseially the energ usage patten in households (about which there is little information) and the stucture of consumption in different tertiary subsectors. lhis will allow better coordination between the components of the Strategy. The support mainly cowprises implementation of a data base, complementary surveys of the residential and tertiay sectors, and monitoring and possible reorientation of the different action programs. Training in the above aspects will be supplied to AME staff involved in the implementation of the strategys components BRins Taxs anid Tariffs 4.15 Reulations. Norms and Standards. The energy conservation program provides a component for implementing norms and standards, in order to cover all household appliances to improve their energy performance. Implementation of standard speccations will encourage manufacturers to monitor closely quality control and equipment performance, provided inspections by designated agencies and certification procedures are carried out scrupulously. This will require tat the resources of the national laboratories be strengthenecL 4.16 The program for efficient building desigf (building code) also provides for regulatory neasurex in the form of secifications or certification seal used to classify new and exsting buildings according to their adaptation to the climate. First, a method for measuring 'adaptability Wi be needed to produce an asessment of the exdsting bulding stock, to evaluate recent public program, and to analyze construion projects. This method wil allow to: (a) define rules to be proposed to contracors and the conditions for issuing certification seals-once issued, a seal would provide access to certain benefits (special financing, exemptions from customs duties for certain equipment or material, etc.); (b) develop training and research modules; and (c) design information brochures for implementing agencies. 4.17 Without twying to make all construction uniform, the procedures for granting certiation seals, building permits and fmancial assistance should be linked in order to avoid abetratons in desig and constuction. Nor is the intentic,n to recapture the thermal attnbutes of older dwellings, the design of which would be dose to optimum but too costly to duplicate. Rather, the objective is to produce a dwelling which maintains thermal performance compatible with the climate and preserves cultural references important to the designer, while takdng advantage of technolocal progress. Standards or certifcat;on seals should be based on known tencal principles: alignment and orientatIon, protection from solar radiation or-on the contral-its judicious use during the winter, wall insulation, use of passive thermal walls, window design, use Of natural ventflation, etc. The rules and their application should be understood by designers and by users. 4.18 a nd Bi A dialogue exists betwen appliance man and the Government related to tax constraints and customs duties Imposed on industry. lbis dialogue is -71 - likely to hbiglight the need for studies concerning Tunisian enteprs' accessibiity to technology, ex-ictory production costs, or markets and production strategies in neiboring countries. Based on the multiple contacts with enterprises during the Study, there appear to be no pressng needs for specific studies at the moment 4.19 If the dialogue between manufacturers anJ the Government were to be enhanced, however, it could be possible to negotiate an agreement with some of the ma:nActurers which would allow appliances to be marketed at prices lower than current retal price-, Under such an agreement, manufacturerswould market lower cost appliances, complete with garantees for quality, reliability and energy effimency. In return, the Government would partly exempt taxes on varous parts and appliances, implement neceay standards and assist in promotion campaigns. 4.20 It is difficult, however, to justify customs duties exemptions for certain household appliances other than exemptions for parts used to manufacture solar water heates At the most, exemptions could be made for equipment iuch as thermostat regulators. Nevertheless, taxes ani customs duties could be differentiated by energy type or technology for a specific usage. For eample, fluorescent tubes could be promoted instead of incandescent lights. Also, the use of low- effciency or load intenasive space and hot water heaters (such as instantaneous electric water heaters) could be discouraged. Annex 15 lists appliances for which partial exemption of customs duties would be advantageous M/. 4.21 As for pricing policy for domestic fuels, current distortions should be lifted to progressively reflect economic costs, especially for LPG and kerosene. Still, any modification of domestic fuel prices must be undertaken in the context of an overall revision of hydrocarbons pricmng policy, which is beyond the scope of this study. hztItutial Framewok ofteSrate 4.22 htitgutional Fmm kI The AME wil be responsible for coordinating the overall energy management strategy for the residential and tertiary sectors and for supervising the implementation of five of the shx progrms of the strategy. The programs for the rational management of wood energy and the development of natural gas wi be handled by the DOF and STEG respectively.. 4.23 In order for the strategy and each of the different programs to be effective and succes, they must be consistent with both the resources AME has at Its diposal and the resources whih can be contributed by AME's interlocutors (implementing agence and pro- fessionals and tradesmen). Close cooperation wil be needed between AME, the organiatons and the TInisian professionals involved To that effect, informal tehnical groups wM be constituted inside the AME to ensre coordination between the Departments and the ONE, and ad-hoc inter- insttutonal committees will ensure the techni coordination of each actior program. ~j/ Howee, it should be noted that snce the comletion of the Su*, th Govenmt has decded to abandon thW idea of paM ofcuss dut evon for the spe0ic applHan list in Anew IS. Some esemtics ar stm d n by case basis -72- 4.24 Insjtftional Integrain. The proposed strategy is consistent with the current energy sector poliys objective for rational utilization of energy. Indeed, most of the proposed acthities to be implemented as part of the strategy complement ongoing actions, programs or projects: (a) Wood resource management is one of the objectives of the Forestry Development Project executed by DGF with assistance from the FAO. The tasks proposed as part Of the strategy will complement ongoing work involving forest production and studies of market potential of forestry products. (b) The energy conservation prosal for the residential sector rest in large part on following and strengthening ongoing work concering load management (STEG) and standardition of household appliances (INNORPI/AME). Simflarly, the energy conservation program for the tertiary sector should support and strengthen activities already underway as part of other projects, and to extend them to different tertiary subsectors (c) With regard to natural gas, utlization of this fuel currently is a priority in the national energy policy. (d) Implementation of a program to desip buildings adapted to the climate is complementary to ongoing work and research on lodgings, which include the recent publication of a design guide by AME and several other planned activities. Eeda Resuls 4.25 Wofiel management. At present, the lack of precise regional statistics for wood resource base, supply networks and consumption make it difficult to qt the resuts expected for the woodfuel management component of the Stiategy. However, in qualitative terms, the results are expcte to lead to the: (a) reduction of unmonitored exploitation of wood resources and improvements in the balance between fuelwood availability and wood offtake, thus limiting the degradation of natural forest formations; (b) evaluation of the potential for saving fuelwood used for making tabouna bread and in the tertiaty sector and, if justified, design and implementation of projects to exploit that potential; (c) evaluation of the feasibility for slowing the substitution of wood by petroleum products, in areas where the wood potential is sufficient, by introducing modern, adapted wood-fired appliances and, if justified, desig and implementation of an improved stove project 426 ftftarbon and electriciqt conservadon The expected results pertaining to conservation of ydroans d electricity, apart from improved thermal effciency in building, are: -73 - (a) after five years, saving to 1% of final en ption in households relative to current consumption, equivalent to 6000 TOE/year by 1996, Ie. 8000 TOE annualy in terms of prmaty ener, (b) after five years, savins correponding to 5% of fhl enero tion in the iary sector reative to current co on, equialet to about 12,000 TOE/year by 1996, le. about 20,000 TOE/year of primary energy. 427 Use gf Wublxtluigakja Exed reuts for ue of more cog: offective subsdtution ene sources ar: (a) in 1996, an annual increase of about 30,000 cosumers wing kosene for cooking in substitution for LPG, equivalent to reducing annual LPO imports by almost 5,000 TOE; (b) in the short term, the addition of S000 new natural gs customers in the residential sector, corresponding to an additional 2000 customers each year relative to current annual growth, and strengthened gas penetration in tertiy e ments situated in areas served by the gs network; (d) continuation of the progrsive penetration of the market for electric water heaters by solar water heaters; (e) market asessment of Indivdual photovolaic vstems for eltr of dpsed mral sites and, if justified, design and Implementation of a proet to encourage use of these sms 428 luhding Jffliionc. The ercted results for limiting heating and air-conditioning requiements In esimated new buildinp inlude: (a) a 20% to 30% Improement Ie effiienq for new budings; (b) by 1996, air-onditioning needs suppressed in about 5% of new dwllins, for annual saving of 1000 TOE In priauuy ener (c) by 1996, a 10% savings on the total energy consumed for air conditioning in new tertiay sector establishmnts, corresponding to annual sa of about 3000 TOE in primay energ. 429 aituinaLg Fially, specific reslt also are expted for the Iniutional setting in order to falitat estabishing prrities and plannig enerV conseation actions in the residential and terdazy sectors Implementaion of coherat data bases with regular updates wM allow proei mon of the evotion of ener coption for th so In addition the coordatio between the different organi-tions nvd should be strengthened. 4.30 Epeced levc1l of enerV savings have been ealuated by the consutant team on a rather covat bais. In the residential, teriy and building sedor, potenal eng saving -74- have been evaluated based on the characteristi of edsting equipment and establishments, the estimated behaviours and decisions of manufacturers and users/owners, the structure and capacity of the AME and experience and results of energy management agencies In other countries (e.g France). In the residential sector, the assumption of minimal savings equivalent to 1% of final energy demand after 5 years of strategy implementation is conservative and benefits could be much higher. In the tertiary sector, energy saving are generated primarily by the largest establishments and the target (5% of their 1991 consumption) is a reasonable target considering the limited number of these establishments, the high potential savings identified during past audits and the fact that few investments have been realized to date. Targeted energy savings in buildingp are also reasonable since they concern new homes and tertiary sector establihments only (5 and 10% of electricity consumption respectively). The size of the development program for kerosene is determined by targeting only new potential LPG consumers Finally, saving due to woodfuel management and additional natural gas development actvities are not quantified yet and therefore are not taken into account in the economic analysi Economic Analsi 431 Ibl 4.1 summarizes the implementation costs for the various action programs (except natural gas development) proposed in the strategy. Detailed costs are presented in the Annex 1. Total implementation costs for the strategy amount to about TD 3.8 million over five years (US$ 42 million), 41% of which is slated for the tertiary sector energy conservation program alone. Slightly over a third of the total sum would be used to finance studies and technical assistance, ove-fourth for investments, one-fifth for training and information and one-fifth for personnel and operation costs. / lTis total sum includes US$735,000 for national costs, including alaries of the personnel assigned to the programs (from AMP, STEG, DGF or other institutions) and operating costs. 4.32 Expected energy savings are estmaed to total more than 32,000 TOE/year in priay energy by 1996, with cumulative savings of more than 62,000 TOE over the period 1991- 1995. In addition to energy savings, there will be an economic benefit due to use of kerosene instead of LPG. In total, implementation of the proposed strategy should generate an annual cash savings for the country which wil reach ID 2.9 million per year by 1996 (US$ 3.2 million), almost equivalent in one year to the total five-year cost of the progruam The net present value is estinated at about TD 0.6 million for that period, with an economic internal rate of return of 22%. Also, yearly benefits wil extend far after the end of the Project. 4.33 Economic analys of specific programs, as presented in Annex 1, show varying degrees of cost-effectiveness. The tertiary sector energy conservation program has immediate and easily recognizable results, and also generates the largest retums (almost 50%), both for the i/ This IndudesJ AM staff i cip of the o of th atefs co_ponet A total of 7 staff would be Invohd in X folowig acots: enerw savn In the resdet setor (2); enern avings in to thet sector (2); bug desig (1); keosene pr. .-Won (1); ves and dat bank (1); wbib msting AE staff oul tke ov some of these t (hi patcu enry gs in ia sector, bu design, and rs and data bank), al 7 saff hav been budged In te economic ana of t ste. Wood magmn and natural gas promotin would both requIre 1 isIng staff rom the DOF and EG. Th co of the picwpaton of thes 7 stafhas been estiae with AIEdata .75 beneficiaries (implementing agents) and for the country. On the otier hand, it is unlikely that the estalishments themselhes will attempt any of these actions without support and incentives from the Government, as shown by the limited scope of past Interventions and the moderate level of current Investments. The succe of this program thus is predicated upon the participation of the public sector, the program contact procedure should guarantee a good return on public sector expenditures, however. 76. Iable 4.1 SIMPLIFIED ECOOI@4C ANALYSIS 0F THE STRATEGY (in thousands of 1991 CT) 1991 1992 1993 1994 199S Total COSTS: Iloodfuel nuagement 130 30 160 4 Residential energy savings 260 190 130 80 90 750 20 Tertiary energy lvi ngs 380 380 380 230 180 1SS0 41 Kerosene promotion 325 205 (15) (140) 70 445 12 Natural s promotfon PM p1 pM pM pR pM Building destgn 205 215 75 495 13 institutianat strengthening --5 75 75a -A 75 S 10 TOTAL COSTS 1,375 1.095 6S 245 415 3M775 100 Including, studies 320 100 120 20 S60 1S Investmsnte 390 390 50 30 120 980 26 Technical ssestance 270 250 100 70 30 720 19 Training, information 110 170 120 40 40 480 13 Advertising camwiign 100 100 100 300 8 PersonneltOperation 18S 185 155 105 105 735 19 BENEFITS: Savings (prmary TOE): Residential 704 2,204 4,601 8,005 15,S14 25 Tertiary 2,042 4,084 12,251 20,418 38,795 62 A/C + heating savings - 500 280 4 000 *JL= 13 S/total 2,746 7,788 19,652 32,423 62,609 100 LPG savings 498 995 1,991 3,318 4,977 11719 value (in thousaids DT)O Energy savin8s / 220 623 1,572 2,594 S,009 LPsGvings in 312 199 n_ TOTAL BENEFITS 30 280 742 1.771 2,893 5,716 CASH FLOW (1,345) (816) 97 1.526 2,47? WPV (12i) 594 IRN 22X Ia Savings valued at oT 80/ToE. price of the fuel for power goeneratfon. y Difference betwcen the economic coats of kerosene nd LPG. g/ Cost estimates and breakdom according to consultant ter reports (suporting docunts 89 and 1). Source: Missfon estifates, see Table 4.2, 4.3. 4.4 and 4.5. in Annex I -77- 4.34. The two residential sector programs-energy conservation and development of kerosene for cooldng-are less favorable than the tertiary sector progam. Most of the expected results hinge on changes in consumer behavior, which are diffuiult to predict and measure accw-rate1Y. Nevertheless, concerning the energ conservation program, s mere 1% savings in household consumption wfll be enough to justify the pubLic sector investments required (rate of return of alnost 30%). The kerosene development program depends largely on private sector initiative and has a good rate of return (18%). Some of the activities planned as part of these programs, especially standardization of appliances and public information campaigns, are also justified for reasons other than economic returns (see impacts of the Strategy). 4.35 The magnitude of the program results for adapted building design can be evaluated properly only in the medium- to long-term. This program must be planned over a period of several years. The IRR, although significantly lower than for other programs, is still acceptable for the period under consideration (12%). However much higher than estimated IERR can be expected because the life span of a building (30 - 40 years) would extend well beyong the terminal year for the cashflow analysis. In addition, there is a certain urgency for acting in this area given, on the one hand, the absence of any current regulation and, on the other hand, the rapid development of residential and certain tertiary constructiorn. 4.36 While the Government should finance the costs of personnel and operation (IVO.7 mfllion over five years), external funding should be sought after for the rest of the costs (about DM3.1 milion) including foreign and local expenditure. Even if it would be easier to finance the most rentable components of the strategy separately, it is better to keep an integrated approach, which allows taking into account cross-setoral effects anJ financing the less rentable strategy components. 437 The simplified economic analysi presented In Table 4.1 is limited to the energy costs and benefits for implementing the proposed strategy. The strategy also has positive economic and social impacts, mainly on the environment, the quality of living in households, and employment. It is difficult to quantify these additional impacts, however. 438 The expected environmental impacts of improving the management of wood resources were discussed previously. Obviously, these impacts can only be positive, but they cannot be quantified at present. As has oeen stated, insuffcient data on exloitation sites and the regenerative capacity of forest resources hinders attempts to assess the actual impact of wood energy offtake on deforestation. 439 Implementation of the strategy also will have a positive impact in terms of improved standard of living in households. The partial reductions in customs duties and the results of the Government's dialogue with manufacturers would allow retail prices of various household appliances to be lowered. Energy consevation and the programs to develop uthiation of kerosene and natural gas in the residential sector should prompt reductlon In household energy expenditures. 4.40 In addition, the dialogue between the Goverment and manuace wi effect an improvement in product quality and company competences. AME's public information -78- ampaigns wM keep the public better informed about A? 3 programs, new products, and new regulations. Implenentation of quality standards will furmsh beth consumrs and profesionals (merchants, I s, STEG, etc.) wiffi safety guarantees Traiing and certifmcation of iastallers, especial gas systems workers, similarly wil be effected. Also, the adapted building design program should bring about improved construction standards and increase the comfort of housing 4.41 Through implementation of stendards and certification seals, Tunisian products wil gain a better image, even if consumers currently prefer better known foreign brands. The improved image will stimulate domestic production and, as a result, employment in the sector will improve. Similarly, the adapted building design program should create markets for new products and bolster integration of local indusfty in areas such as insuation materials, for example. The qualLications of constuction tradesmen and companies also wi be enbanced; in time, certain techniques could be developed for eport to other Mediterranean countries. As for the energy conservation program in the tertiazy sector, jobs will be created by developing diagnostic activities and by realzing investments in several subsectors 4.42 Final, implemna of the proposed strategy also should be the impetus for job creation by stmulating development of tertiary sector activity. The energy conservation and adapted building design programs wM enhance company profitability by reducing their expenses and diminish operating costs in public enterprises. 4.43 The main risks of the recommended strategy are related to actual consumer's responses and efficiency of implementation. Anticipated savings could be optimstic and the rate of penetration of energy saving measures could also be too high However, even with a decrease of 50% in yearly annual saving, the strategy is stfll economically sound, on a longer evaluation period though: the NPV of the Strategy would equal 0 after about 6.5 year 4.44 Variations in inteational prices of petroleum products, suh as the ones observed since August 1990, wil benefit to the Strategy,since higher prices wil mean higher benefits in absolute terms. Also, it is reasonable to assume that the current difference between the economic costs of LPG and kerosene on one hand, and between the costs of LPG and natural gas on the other hand, would not vaiy significantly (Le. absolute costswould vary in parallel), which maintais the favorable prospects for the penetration of natural gas and, to a lesser ett, kerosene in the residential and tertiaiy sectors, provided the current distortions in the retail prices are elminated. 4.45 if .-e components of the Strategy were undertaken separately, they should be ctassified according to their economic rentability and risk probability. The probability-weighed NPV cold be used for that purpose. Ina frstapproximation, with the same risk probabflity for all components, the component with higher NPV is by far the program for energy savinss in the tertiary sector, folalowed by the progam for energy savings in the residential sector and the program for kerosene promotion for cooking (see Table 42). 79 - EJnancinz 4.46 Most components of the strategy are ready for immediate implementation as soon as funds are available. Several donors are presently contributing to project financing in the residential and tertiary energy sectors, such as GT7Z, CIDA, the EC, UNDP, France, and some of these could support follow-up investments; their interest in funding part or all of the strategy's components should be assessed by the Government of Tunisia. This could be achieved through prelimiay contacts of relevant donors by the AME and the organization of a one-day seminar to offiilly present the strategy to the donor community, relevant consttutions and the private sector. After obtaining the necessy funding, the AME should prepare a detailed work program and implementation plan for each financial component of the Strategy. Table 4.2 Economic ranking of the strategy's program Program TOTAL COST UPV EIRR (X1000 OT) (X1000 DT) X woodfuel management 160 n.a. n.a. Residential energy conservation 750 190 29 Tertiary energy conservation 1.550 751 47 Kerosene promotion 445 62 18 Natural gas promotion n.e n.a n.a Building design 495 2 12 Institutional strengthening 375 n.a. n.a. Overall Strategy 3,775 594 22 - 80o AnAD 1 Page 1 of 26 ACrION ?BQRAMS ltis annex presents the proposed activities for each of the seven action programs, as well as resources required tor implementation. A simplified economic analysis also is presented, where posible. The programs for rational management of wood energy resources and for natural gas development are integral parts of ongoing projects, the scopes of which extend beyond the residential and tertiay sector, and thus they are not as well develipeJ in this annex as the other action programs. - 81- Annex 1 Page 2 of 26 Prom I Rational Management of Wood Enerig Resources This program is to be integrated into a larger program administered by the DOF, the Forestry Development Project (FDP). The FDP covers all forestty products, timber as well as wood energy, and includes components for tree plantations, forest management, and commercialization of various wood products. The operations proposed below support the FDP wood energy activities; therefore, they do not constitute a separate program with a distinct rate of return but they are included for financing as part of the strategy. The lack of data and basic information concerning wood energy and its link to deforestation were emphasized in previous sections of this report. Thus, in order to define an action program ir. the field, a number of preliminary studies appear indispensable- (a) analysis of wood resource base and supply systems; (b) possible revisions to existing regulations; (c) market potential for modern wood-fired appliances; (d) feasibility of conservingwood used in cooking tabouna bread. These preliminary studies will help define subsequent projects. EUmin=a Studies Wood enerw resource base. Wood availability and supply systems should be evaluated, with priority given to the Northern and Central East regions. 32/ More particularly, emphasis should be given to the Northwest and the Sahel, where supply potential is the greatest. The study will comprise two phases: (a) evaluation of supply potential productivity of natural forest formations (forest as well as shrubbery) and of existing and planned plantations, wood supply from maintenance trims and replacement of fruit trees; and (b) market studies of competing comme.cial uses for wood: local consumption and urban markets for woodfuels in the residential, industial and tertiary sectors, and markets for timber, cork, olive wood and crafts. Using the supply and market potentials thus established, zones can be identified as being either environmentally at risk or desirable for wood energy exploitation. In these zones, eventual other causes of environmental degradation (land clearing, grazing, etc.) should also be assessed. In the zones that are the most at risk, reforestation actions would probably be needed in addition to the improved management of forest formations and the regulatory reforms, that are described in the following paragraph. Revisions to existing rellations The analysis will address the issues of "right of domain' and control of charcoal marketing and production. Emphasis will be given to urban marketing. The first priority will be to update current information to explain the gap observed between controlled production and estimated consumption. Possibilities for improvement include implementation of simple, efficient and reliable systems for defining exploitation quotas, monitoring forest exploitation, and monitoring rural and urban consumption as well as the evolution of price structures for fuelwood and charcoaL The need for revisions to the current fiscal structure (taxes and stumpage fees) affecting wood fuel producers and marketers also should be studied. These / Ongoing work on formst base evaluation wil be usd to that eff¢ct, in pardcular the nadonal inventory carred out by the DGF in the framewor of the Foesty Developnmunt Poject. -82- A= 1 Page 3 of 26 studies shoud lead to concrete recommendations for regulatoiy texts, tax policy and strengthened control Market potential for modem wood-fired appliance. The market study for modern wood-fired appliances will test European and North American models, such as multi-purpose cookstoves (cooking, heating and hot water), high efficiency wood-stoves for heating, central heating furnaces and water heaters The study wi first include a detailed analysis of household energy demand by final use in areas where wood energ is abundant. The analysis wil be followed by the selection of appliances adapted to these needs and to the local situation, based on consumer expectations and purchasing power, as well as on the possibilities for technological transfer. The cost-effectiveness for both the country and households will be examined by comparing use of such appliances with LPG and kerosene alternatives. Finaly, the conditions needed for successfu distribution, such as improving fuelwood's negative image, would be identified. These activities wil lead to concrete recommendatiors which could include subsequent projects. Feasibilitv of improved tabouna ovens Distribution of simple improved cookstoves has mnYf with little success during the Study, and thus cannot lie counted as a potential means of conserving woodc However, the acceptability of an improved tabouna oven, used to cook bread, has yet to be evaluated. Preliminar tests have established a rather substantial savings potentiaL Also, experiments wth substituting gas for wood in ovens of this type have met with success in other countries. 3/ Thus, the first step is to study the technical and economic feasibility of an improved wood- or LPG-fired tabouna, as well as the acceptability of these options in areas where wood offtake presents environmental risks, in particular in the center and the south of the country. The study could lead to concrete recommendations for a potential improved tabouna project. ELw--jW Actions Subsequently, if the conclusions of the prelimniary sttkdies descnIbed above are favorable, specific projects could be launched at the regional level for modem wood-fired appliances and improved tabouna ovens. In the case of wood-fired appliances, this would entail implementng measures to assist opening the market, such as: (a) incentives for consumers: premiums for reconversion to wood- fired appliances, special payxnent facilities for equipment purchases, etc.; (b) incentives for tradesmen/professionals: information (exhtibitons, demonstrations, documentation), training for instllers, tax and customs incentives, support for local production (specl investment facilities, technical assiance, etc.); (c) promotion cmpaigs diected at consumers; (d) implementation of standards and certification of appliances, consistent with f/ bIn cities of Yemen, for aznple, gas substition in ovwm of this t ha takn place for qny yeas. -83- Am I Page 4 of 26 principles adopted for other household appliances The steps needed to disseminate improved tabouna ovens easily could be incorporated into measures to popularize new technologies. Thus, any project of this type should be integrated into existing rural development programs. Nevertheless, if gas substitution becomes a viable option, ditribution would become the responsiblity of merchants operating in the rural areas and special promotion campaigns would be needed. I^leenadn and GMst The program for rational management of wood energy resources should be executed by DGF and closely coordinated with ongoing FDP activities (while being separated from these activities which are already defined). DGF and AME should cooperate on collecting data related to wood energy supply and consumption and, possibly, associated marketing networks. AMEs participation will ensure that charcoal and fuelwond are included in future national energ balances, as well as in sectoral energy balances covering the residential, industrial and terdary sectors Preiminay studies of wood energy supply and evaluation of possible revisions to the regulatory framework are part of the ongoing FDP activities and are not costed here. However, a specific survey of woodfuel consumption in the residential and tertiary sectors is needed. This survey should talce into account the population sample, methodology and results of STEG's 1989 survey. A total TD 40,000 is budgeted to cover the services of a household energy survey specialist (3 to 4 weeks), the surveyors' salaries and logistical eapenses Data entry and processing would be performed by AME. The marketing study for modern wood-fired appliances will be carried out in cooperation with AME and could be administered by the Industrial Promotion Agency (Agence de Promotion de llndustrie). The study wmi be limited to areas identified as having favorable potential according to the analysis of wood energy supply consumption and the household survey. A total TD 20,000 is budgeted. Tne feasibility study for conserving wood used in cooking tabouna bread wil consist of developing improved tabouna and gas tabouna ovens, as well as carrying out socia-economic studies to test acceptabflity among potential users. A total TD 40,000 is budgeted to cover the services of an improved stoves spedalist (4 weeks) and a Tunisian sociologist (4 weeks) and the expenses of perfecting and testing the models. -84- Anne 1 Page 5 of 26 .3 ft s Actons The poposed actions the manulie, purchase and use of electric household applance.he trt clen : (a) the general pubAk, with the goal of developing users' energy awarenes so that consumption is reduced through ratonal ue of equipment, and to encourage hoseholds to make ener consmption a citer when purpasing new equipment: choie of high performan equipmt and brands, equipment size adapted to household needs; (b) th adm enn / _~ disrbts and htorters-,t them to promote high performance appliances; and Installes, who often advise te usem The program wil include the fogowi actions (a) eleccity kload manapement; (b) regulating standards and iaon; (c) training and licenig of professionals; (d) information campais and (e) agreementswi aufures Elaid anaI Mana t As a result of detailed analysi of margia costs, STG ahready has raised hot water triffs to more dosly match the general tanf However, in order to conriute to limiting peak demand, it is advisable to maintain double meterig and remote controled circuit breakers for hot water heaters, which are optimal technical solutions with low man_tenance costs Continuation of SIGs demand magement actvites wil require close ooeation with AME and ONE in at least two areas: ( monitorig and updating statistical balances showing content data for levels of household equiment, population flures, nominal onsumption of appianc (as given by the manu ers and mered Ir standardized methods), nd total consumption by ener soure; and (A) of households according to homogeneous behavioral categores. The tter wll authorities to evaluate each category's contributon to peak load Therefore, it i Imperative that AME and Sm use the same data, based partially on STE's ales statistics, to ense consistency with the genal and sectoral energy balaces Hopefl, AME and SMM wil undertake some joint analys based on these data. RwlalianSandard&jnd Ci cadon INNORPI should give priority to gs liances in its ac es to implement standards In adtion to applying interational standards mainly related to safety, specific Tunisian standards should be defined related to the appliances adaptation to its function. The resouc of the national laboratories wil have to be reiforced so that new standards and crtiffcation of equipment can b implementdIn pareular, testing benches are needed for gas water and space heaters, as well as for all ookiog equipment. Testing benches for most of the other apiances (essentialy lighting and refrigeration) mosty are complete. Standard siats for teevin sets have least prirY. .85 . Page 6 of 26 Once the standards have been established, "sandardized' measures of energy consumption can be used to compare the different appliances on the market AMAE then could publish a list of brands and models with thek consumption atistics, which would also will be posted at sale places, in exhibition hails for wholesalers, or in retafl establbhments. The standardized consumption also wil be indicated on labels with a seal of cortifition indicating conformity with standards, for apliances which so qual. Posting energy consumption fgures could be made mandatory by tdiete Finally, once application of standards is well underway, they will be incorpoated into a puic information campaign as desmibed below. if standardiaon procedures prove inadequate for improving the energy performance of£household appliances, AME could create a parallel *high performance" certification to distinguish the most enery efficient equipment. However, tis does not appear to be a short- term priority. rining and g Lcensing of asionals. With the increased use of natural gas in homes and the associited safety concerns, it would be necessay to require certification of the qualications of workers who install gas networks and appliances, and to train them. This certification requirement potentially would cover electricians as well as heating technicians. Technical certification would be granted by a technical commission composed of representatives from both professions and placed under the responsibility of a public sector agency. The workers' qalifications would be validated by a professional card and possibly by a sign or placard. In order to quali for certification, the installer will have to (i) undergo special training covering natural gas equipment used in buildings and dwellings and (ii) prove his abilty to perform state-of-the-art installations. Tne distibutors' prIncipal obligation wil be to post the standardized characteristics of appliances and their enerly consumption. However, wholesalers also are expected to enhance consumer information by updating the detailed utilization notices, as well as by training installers of new appliances (partinlarly gas). Seminars wil be organized for wholesalers and distributors to cover subjects such as information campaigns, standards, and posting consumption. Imatign.Camnaigu. Information campaigns will be necessazy to inform consumers of the various measures inplemented by the public authorities: (a) standards and certification of equipment manufactured in Tunisia; (b) mandatoty posting of consumption characteristcs; (c) distribution of comparative consumption tables; (d) possible tariff modifications and tax exemptions for some equipment or uses; (e) measures to encourage specific equipment or usages, such as more effcient lights and (f) mandatory qualification and certification of istallers. The second objective wi be to influence consumer behavior related to using household appliances rationally. Ihis te of campaign necessarily must be preceded by qualitative studies to analyze current behavior, to identify the stimulus points upon which one can act, and thus to define messages which positively could influence behavior. A third objective will be to promote specific energy sources or innovative equipment such as low consumption light bulbs or fluorescent tubes to substitute incandescent lamps, and solar water heaters. Here also the campaign should be prepared by analyses of consumer motivations and expectaions in order to identify criteria other than simple economic rationality which influence the customer. 86- 6nau Page 7 of 26 IikIrnmaIaeiurm AME and other public orgpnizations should make contractual agreements with manuf or groups of manuf s, through their professional organizations, for promoting Innovative solutions on ener conseation and substitution between energy sourcs and equipment. The main obectives of these agreements wil be to improve equipment efficincy, to guarantee a certain level of quality, and/or to lower the retail price. Example cited here axe solar water heaters or promoting energy saving refrigerators Tbe priorit actions for implementation in the program are: (a) process the results of STECGs 1989 household enery survey; (b) define and apply norms and standards for refrigerators, gas waer and space heaters, and install testing equipment in approved laboratories; (c) prepare a licensing procedure and trainig program for installers; (d) identify need for further qualitative analys of consumer behavior to round out the results of the STEG survey, and to better implement new information campaigns; (e) set forth the dialogue and agreements with manufacturers and identify related technical assistance needs. In order to track and analyze demand in the residential sector, close cooperation wil be required between AME and enery producers (in partiular STEG), as well as with all the oranizations which keep household data: INS, Minity of Ciil Works, etc. Within AME, the work will be carried out by DEEP in liaison with ONE. ONE h will andle regular and repettve tsks induding managing and annualy updating data bases. Ita rdo wil be to collect and process sales data from SMEG and the oil companies. ONE also will monitor the wonstency of demand statistics with general data from balances DEEP's role will be to synthesize exiting information in order to observe the characteristics and evolution of demand, to evaluate the determinants of demand, and to identify the need for complementary data to be obtained from surveys. After these analyses are completed, DEEP wil identify the need for revisions to AMEs interventions in the residential sector and propose new intervention programs. Standards wil be defined and implemented by technical com ions coordinated by INNORPI and composed of representatives from all the vocations and from AMI. AME will cooperate with the distributors and with the unit responsible for consumer protection within the Environmental and Quality Control Directorate of the MEN to see that the standardized consumption statistics are properly posted and to pubLish appliance lists with consumption figures. Certification of qualified electric and natural gas instalers wil be granted by the relevant ministries in conjunction with UICA. AME, together with SMEG, wil lead technical support for organizing trang seminas The information campaigns wil be implemented by AME and should be designed as a dialogue between AME and individual consumers Therefore, it is imperative to continuously sound out the Tunit4an consumers and to make preiinay marketing analyes to evaluate . 87 . Anex 1 Page 8 of 26 consumer' behavior and motivations. AME wil 8enga a calized agency to design and coordinate communications actiona It also is important to periodically veri the messages' effectiveness by surveving or Interiewing representative consumer sanples. As in the past, AM could depend on STEG and other professionals-manufacturers, distributors and installers-for distributing fliers or technical brochures. The manufacturers and their professional organizaons naturally will be AMEs principal interlocutors for ngotiating and establiing contractual agreements. AME wfll act in coordination with the Direction de ia Matise d a Technologi et des Mutatons Industrielles (Directorate for Technical and Industiial of Industzy) and with the Industrial Promotion Agency. Economi An"bi gati. The costs of the progrm, estdmated in Table 4. represent a total cost of TID 750,000 discounted over five years, equivalent to US$ 820,000. They cover the following components: (a) monitoring demand: technical assistance to establish sectoral energy balances and a household data base, forecasting methods, and support for conducting and processing surveys; (b) norms and standards: acquire testing benches to complete existing equipment in approved labortories (c) certification of profesionals: financing for traning installers to qualify for cetification; (d) public information campaigns: fnancing for preliminar behavioral analyst, preparing and caryig out two or three campaigns using different media sources; (e) cohtratual agreements with household appliance manufacturers: technical support by experts (process technology selection, organization, management, etc.), promotion of new products and support for elaborating an industi strategy fo; the main enterprises. -88 - A Page 9 of 26 Table 4.PR 0AN Of EtlY SAVI1S IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR - ECOOIC ANALYSIS (in thousands of OT) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Total COSTSX Demn mon toring 40 30 70 9 ormns 50 S0 100 13 Licensing of professionaLs 30 30 60 8 Advertising caaigns 50 S0 5s 150 20 Agreements with manuta.ture 50 40 40 40 170 23 Personnel/Operation 40 40 40 40 40 200 27 8/total costs 260 190 130 80 90 750 100 Includfng, studies 0 0 Investments 50 S0 100 13 Technical assistance 90 70 40 40 240 32 Training, informatfon 30 30 60 8 Advertising c lpaw 50 50 50 150 20 Persomtl/Operatfon 40 40 40 40 40 200 27 SECTORL CONAITION , : 674 706 735 767 800 (x 1,000 TOE) Including, petro. products 414 431 448 466 484 Electricity (prims.y) 260 273 287 301 316 SENEFITSs Achfeved savings 0.1X 0.3S 0.6" 1.0O f.e., in TOE 704 2,204 4,601 8,005 15,513 Valu in th_usds OT b. S6 176 368 640 1.241 CASN FLOW (260) 134 4 288 SSO NPV 190 (125) Ian 29X A/ Forecast cosurptfon of prims,y enrgy according to Table 3.1 W Savfngs valued at OT 80/TOE, price of the fuetl for per geerwatfin S/ Cost estimate and breakdow according to spport doc nt No. 9. ioaa: Niss1on estimtes. mic RteofHtO rnf Ile magnidtue of the potential for energ savng is indaed by examiin;g the like evolutio of ionupdo and behavior, assmig no action is taken (a) raid dition of inefficient aphian spcific o ntion substantially higer than appliances meeing standard se tlos and (b) use of appfiances with ecess capacity relative to needs, poor istallation or utiaton leading to amess consumption whih could reach 20%. - 89 Anng 1 Page 10 of 26 Agreements Sith manufacturers could lead to more rap!d marketing of appliances at accessible prices, thus accelerating replacement of old appliances by more efficient equipment. However, it is difficult to estalZ the dirct link between the proposed actons and the resulting savingp because theso resiuts wi depend on decisions of a number of parties (households and professionals) whose response to campaign is larey variable. Therefor the actual realization of the energy savin objective will be difficult to measure. Conservatively, the assumption of minimal savings equvaent to 1% of final energ demand in 1995 is made for the economic analysis. The economic rate of return for this program s evaluated based on the saving generated for the county during the period 1991-1995, estimated at 8000 TOE/year of primaty non-wood energ by 1996. Given the progressive nature of the saving generated, this target fgure corresponds to cumulative saving ove the period of over 15,000 TOE. Valued at D 80/TOE (the price of fuel for power stations), this represents TD 12 million in savins for the country. Table 4.2 shows that the public sector investment of TD 750,000 thus wil ar-py recovered over the period by the benefits gained. The economic IRR is close to 30%. -90- AMI Page 11 of 26 EWP am 3 Eney Conservation in the Tertiary Sector Proosed Actions All proposed actions in the existing tertiary sector are aimed at inducing property managers, implementing agencies and other responsible agents to carry out the investment recommended in the audits conducted to date. They also are aimed at identifying new investment opportunities. Support for AME will include bolstering the existing procedures for establishing agreements with tertiary sector establishments. 'he program contracts are an exceJlent approach for encouraging establishments to invest in energy management. Still, preliminary studies and investments should be more closely linked in the future by proposing program contracts before the audit to formally commit both parties: (a) the private sector's commitment wifl be to carry out the recommendations of in-depth audits, and (b) the authorities' commitment will be to offer attractive financing options and to provide necessary information, technical and training support. Thus, it will be important from the beginning to better discern the needs and priorities of owners/property managers, as well as their decision process for investments. The private partners should realize the full extent of the benefits and support they can expect from the public authorities both during the audits and during implementation of the recommendations. The program contracts will affect not only individual tertiary establishments, but also can be negotiated to involve joint ventures in the public or private sector. In addition to assistance for preliminary studies and fnancing investments, tertiary sector establishments wi need technical assistance to establish energy accounting systems and to plan and supervise adequate maintenance procedures for energy equipment (e.& preventive maintenance). Also, successful conservation operations should be used in publicity dossiers to encourage participation by other establishments Public sector support for private sector investments will include: (a) technical documentation; (b) organization of training seminars and sessions; (c) establishment of norms and standards for locally manufactured equipment and (d) lists of energy conservation equipment and equipment qualifying for reduced customs duties. The progam will also include a component for training and licensing of professionals (installers), such as the one described in Program 2. The types of potential interventions in smaller tertiaty sector. establihments fall somewhere between those planned for larger establishments and actions aimed at the public at large. They could include: distribution of simple guides explaining the principles of energy accounting adapted to small businesses and giving ratios linking consumption to srface area, to number of appliances/equipment and to number of lighting fixtures; technical assistance on demand analysis; and assistance for pre-distribution of some equipment. Interventions of this type already have been carried out by AME in bakeres (industrial sector. according to INS classification). -91- A Page 12 of 26 Implementation The energy management program for the tertialy sector should give priority to larger establishments for the following reasons: (i) they account for most of potential energy savings; (ii) interventions are facilitated by the relatively limited number of establishments, thus increaing impact of action by the public authorities; and (iii) AME's resources are limited. Priority sectors are hotels, hospitals, office buildings (public or private), municipalities and Turkish baths. Other tertiary subsectors like cafes, restaurants or commerce represent less important savings potentials. In order to work with private as well as public property managers, the AME will rely on organizations which must be able to be co-sponsor of some of the actions and to assist in distributing documentation or organizing training. In addition to STEG, these parties wfll be: (a) the supervising ministries, notably for the new programs for constructing buildings or office parks; for hospitals and other health establishments, AME will rely on the central technical services of the Ministry of Health; (b) the municipalities or town councils managing a large number of buildings: this sector is already targeted under an integrated program requiring that "energy specialists" be trained in several municipalides; and (c) the professional unions such as UTICA or the chambers of commerce in subsectors composed of a substantial number of small businesses. The AME also will have recourse to energy sector professionals: thermal engineers, consulting firms, histallers. In effect, these professionals play an intermediary role with public authorities and ensure the actual promotion of energy management in the field. Specalzed training for energy professionals could be provided under various bi-lateral or multi-lateral projects (for example, the World Bank proposed Energy Conservation and Diversification Project). Costs and Economic Rate of Return Cost. The costs of public sector interventions, estimated in able 43. total TD 1.55 million (US$ 1.7 million) over five years. However, direct public sector investment tied to programn contracts should not exceed 10% of the total investmerts made by property managers and implementing agencies. Thus, public sector interventions should generate energy conservation investments valued at over TD 9 million. The public sector budgets, managed by AME, cover the following operations: (a) the program contracts' commitment of public funds for financing part of the audits and investments; direct interventions, such as subsidies and possible soft loans are included but not the cost of possible fiscal measures; (b) the costs of documentation, dissemination of information and demand operations 9 -92- Mm 1 Page 13 of 26 in the small tertiy sector; (c) the costs of support actions such as traini orgaizaton of seminars and the distnbution of technical documentation. EMi)k go jtum. The enera saigs potential is eated primay by the largest establishments which represt two-thirds of the total demand in the sector. Savings equivalent to 5% of 1991 consumption are pected in 1995. This target figure is reasonable, gen the high potential savins identified during the audits, and the fact that few investments have bee realized to date. An annual savings of about 11,000 TOE in final energ will be generated by 1996, corresponding to over 20,000 TOE/year in primary energ. The resulting cash savings for the country were evaluated considering primaty energ savings, valued at the fuel price for power plants (TD 80/TOE). Esdmates will top TD 1.6 million for the year 1995, with over TD 3 mMion in cumulative savings during the period 1991-1995. The rate of return of investment for the property managers and implementing agenciesusually is documented in advance by the audits and the preliminary studiesIn thtertiaty sector, the ratio of investments to benefits corresponds to an average payback period of two years. As for public sector investments, TableA.3 shows that the IRR for the tertiary sector program is dose to 50%. 93' Annmi Page 14of 26 Ia " 4,: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS PoMN OF EN SAVINS IN TI TRTIMY SECTOR (In tho_ands of DT) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Total COSTS: Audits, preltminary studies 100 100 100 300 19 Co-financing SO 150 SO 150 100 700 45 Smlt tertiary 50 so s0 10 10 Sqport ctivities 40 40 40 40 40 200 13 peroivo/operaticn 40 40 40 40 40 200 13 Stotal public costs 380 380 380 230 180 1,550 10o Including, studies 100 100 100 300 19 Investments 150 150 150 150 100 700 45 Technical istance 30 30 30 90 6 Training, informtion 60 40 60 40 40 260 17 Persoml/Operation 40 40 40 40 40 200 13 SECTOL CONSUMPTION 1991: 408 (x 1,000 TOE) a1 Including, petroleum prod. 151 Electricity (primay) 258 ENEFITS: Achieved savingsfl99l O.5X 1t 3X 5X i.e., in TOE 2,042 4,084 12,251 20,418 38,'9S V.lue fn thousands of OTt 163 327 980 1,633 3,104 CASN FLOW (380) (217) (53) 750 1,453 NPV 751 C12%) INN 47X a Forst constlon of primary ry accoring to Tabte 3.2. ht Savins valued at DT 80/TOE, price of th ftuol for power genation. SI Cost estimte and breakdow according to supporting doamnt No. 9. Sourc: Nission estimates -94- Ann I Page 15 of 26 Progmrm 4 Development of the Use of Kerosene Proosed Actions The projections of household consumption trends for different energy sources presented in Annex 13 indicate the market for principal household cooking fuels in the short term (Annex 16). If no action is taken to change current trends, an additional 25,000 to 30,000 households will use LPG for cooking each year. These include both new households and households which will have abandoned fuehwood or kerosene. The development program for using kerosene wil target these new potential LPG consumers. The absence of modem and efficient kerosene cookers on the Tunisian market probably is one of the factors behind households' preference for LPG. Demonstratons of South American kerosene cookers were given as part of the study. These cookers are more attractive, more convenient and more efficient than currently used pressure stoves ,/ (babours). Preliminauy indications are that an untapped market for these cookers exists which could compete with gas hotplates. Present users of kerosene (about 300,000 households) would also be targeted to replace their babours by more efficient cookers (additional maximum market of about 40,000 cookers each year). The actions proposed to win this market comprise two phases. Phase one actions are to: (a) identify adequate kerosene cookers that meet the acceptance of targeted consumers' groups (eg. wood users in peri-urban areas and small cities) in terms of convenience, safety, cost, aspect, etc; (b) study the market potential of identified kerosene cookers in detail reactions of targeted consumers (in both rural and urban areas) and household appliance distributors, price sensitivity, identification of market openings and convincing sales pitches, etc.; (c) analze the possliblities of technological transfer and cost pricing assuming different scenarios for importing or local manufacture. In the second phase, if the conclusions of these preliminary studies are positive, steps should be taken to open and supply the market. The interventions foreseen are: (a) incentive measures for consumers: promotional prices, special facilities for purchasing equipment, etc.; (b) incentive measures for professionals: information (exhibitions- demonstrations, documentation, study trips, etc.), fiscal and customs incentives, support for local However, fied tests conducted by AME's Speca Ener Progam in rural area of the Kef roon hv vled the low acceptance of the "Superloe stoe due to concers for safety when used with asoline and diofls in lighting the fire if kerosene used (xcept ff a significant amount of alcohol was used for this peafon). .95. Anne 1 Page 16 of 26 production (investment facilities, technical assistance, etc.); (c) promotion cmpaigns aimed at consumers; (d) norms, standards, and certification for cookers based on procedures defined for household appliances as part of the energy conservation program in the residential sector. Finaly, implementation of a new pricing policy for kerosene and LPG should be envisaged. Establishing retail prices based on economic costs would favor kerosene, thus modiying consumer choices It also may be necesary to eventually revise the margins for distribution and transport to improve service to rural zones. However, the price structure of LPG and kerosene can be revised only in the context of a global revision of current pricing policy for all petroleum products, which is beyond the scope of this Strategy. Program implementation will be administered by AN, which can rely on the Industial Promotion Agency to undertake the preliminary studies. The interventions for opening the market will be carried out in collaboration with household appliance ditributors and their representatives, such as ImCA and the chambers of commerce. Support for professionals wil include pre-financing neesr investments with low-interest loans in order to share the risks associated with the first lot of cookers placed on the market. Ct and Eomic Rt of Return The program costs, estimated in Table 4A represent a total of TD 445,000 over five years is covers financing for preliminay studies, technical assistance., training information for professionals and three promotion campaigns. Ihe target figure for annual sales to current and potential LPG uses (30,000 cookers), should be reached by 1996. The national benefits have been evaluated in terms of savings realized by foregoing LPG use, taldng into account the differential between the economic costs of L and kerosene (TD 60/TOE in 1988). They should reach TD 300,000/year by the fift year of the program, with an economic IRR of 186. .96 - &M I Page 17 of 26 TXakste a E 0nNIC MALYSIS OF PONIO OF FMlE 1O COk (in thousand of ST) 1991 1992 1993 1994 199f Total Studies& Narket S0 S0 Nanafcturing 30 30 Evalueton 20 20 40 S/total 80 20 20 120 27 tSport to profesioetls Pre-nvetmsnts 120 200 320 (60) (120) (140) (320) Technical assfstance 30 20 S0 Inforstion 20 20 10 S0 3/total 170 180 (110) (140) 100 22 Promtion cpign S0 S0 S0 150 34 Pelrsme/Operan 25 25 25 75 17 -ITAL COSTS 325 205 (15) (140) 70 44S 10 Salie tarot 3,000 6,000 12,000 20,000 30.000 (puWbir of uits) Saved LP0 (TOE) I 498 995 1,991 3,318 4,977 11,779 TOTAL KFITSW 30 60 119 199 299 707 CSH FLOW (295) (14) 134 339 229 262 WPV 62 (125) Ia laX ,/ Conauption estimted at 150k of LPG per household and par ya, accordfin to the controlted oookfng tests oad by the misson. w SDifferem between th econmie costs of LP tDT 220/TOE) en keroene CDT 160T), with 19M prie. S/ Cost estimte and breakdow accordin to supporting doAint No. 13. - 97- Annx I Page 18 of 26 ]QDNAut OfHau NI;;-as SJ The program for developing natural gas use in thie residential and tertiday sectors cannot be diassociated from development of natural gas in other sectors of actvit, in particular electric power generation and industry, because of the magnitude of investments to be realized for eaxending the networkL This is a national energy policy issue, the scope of which largely exceeds the context of the Strategy. Development of naunral gas in the residential and tertiary sectors, currently is one of STEG's priorities. Thus, only a few operations are proposed in this report to acowmpany infrastructure investments, complement ongoing actions and favor natural gas penetration. They should be administered by STEG, but could be carried out in colaboration with AME. They include: (a) detailed evaluation of the market in the two sectors through surveys of potential consumers in order to ascertain demand levels, cost of distribution and current blockages (this evaluation should start from and develop the results of studies that have akeady been done by STEG); this evaluation should be done in a cross-sectoral persective since adequate development of the residential market for natual gas is closely linked to the successfl penetration of this fuel in other sectors, especialy power generation and the industry tariffs, regulatory and institutional aspects should also be carefully examined; (b) analysi of the marginal cost-efectiveness of extending the grid to reach new zones Of activity and/or neighborhoods with strong consumption potential, and analysis of the economic costs of connection; (c) promotion campaigns for consumers to explain the advantages of natural gas, inform on its utilization and give safety guarantees; (d) study the possibility of implementing incentives for interior distribution installations and possible replacement or reconversion of existing appliances Actions proposed in the context of energy conservation programs for the residential and tertiary sectors also could contribute to development of naturl gas. They include standardizaton of gs-fired household appliances and equipment, and training and ertification of qualified installers. .98 .Anng Page 19 of 26 Desio of Bud dapted to the Climate The process leading to the implementation of building design specification wil involve the following steps: (a) research on conditions of comfort and consideration of the rules of design adapted to the climate, (b) distribution of a guide for living quarters, (c) classification nd quantification of current construction, (d) standardiation and certification of buildings, and (e) standardizaton of energv equipment. The criteria of comfort within premises must be defined according to the period of occupaton, based on the definiton of dlimatic references for different periods of the year and in each climatc zone (averages on several years). By carefully considering the design rules, it wil be possible to maximize the contribution of solar energy in winter, to reduce it in summer; to ensure prper ventilation; to orient buildings, facades and the placement of interior walls; and to optimize the interior spaces and their forms in order to reduce thermal losses. Design issues also wil indlude insulation of walls and ceilings, protection-or alternately exposure-of windows and material selection. A guide for living quarters will be used to allow individuals, property managers and buiding owners to carry out a thermal audits themselves, or to have one done professionally. If needed, two guides could be prepared, one for individuals, the other for property managers/owners Of tertiary idings or colective residential units. AME has just completed wTehnical Recommendations for Building Design'. This basic document wil be updated progressivel with detailed technical information as and when standardization procedures advance. In addition, its contents could be summarized in schematic and iustrated leaflets for property managers/owners or individuals without the necessary technical knowledge. Reference buildings wil be chosen for technical and economic comparative analyses of current consruion. Architectural practices, techniques used and the choice of material wil be analyzed as representing short-term construction trends. Then, the technical and energy charcteristics of reference buildings wil be quantified according to the following taks choice of representative living modules ging rise to generalzed results; accurate measures of energy consumption in representative buildings for heating and, if necessary, cooling; study of construcion elements and materials; census of eisng materials; cos asis of existing buildg; analis of the coefficient of heat transfer, solar factors and other thermal char of buiding components; and a preliminar estimate of additional costs resulting from requiring buldings to conform with new rules. Once a method has been elaborated for new building speciations and codes, it wil be presented to buflding contrac-tors during commissions' meetings, at training sessions and through dbisemination of example technical options. Legal aspects of each standard and label should also be defined at that stage (eg. optional recommendations versus mandatory codes). Also planned is elaboration of a guide for materials and components. Thbis guide will establish a cation of the materals which can be used in Tunisia. With regard to specifications for energy equipment, research to undertake and documents to be produced wi cover lighting codes, choice of fuels, zoning and sectioning for installations, scaling of equipment, placement of heating/cooling equipment, optimization of i99 Amo Page 20 of 26 engineering, sizing and heat insolation of fluid circwits, the plcement of heating and cooling vents, the choice of regulation equipment, and management of nsallatons Ihe programs for des"' buildings adapted to the dlimate wi be administered by AMIn ollborawith relevant minsries. Research and specific actions wil be carried out in cllaboraton with the Ecoles Nationales dIg6nieurs of Tunis and Monastir, the Institut Technique d'Arclteture et d'Urbanisme de Tunis and the Centre Technique du B&thment Testing can be done eithier in STEs laboratories or those of CETIMiE Comrittees or commissions composed of architects, consulting firms, constution firms, and promoters should be formed so that all parties concerned with the desig and implementation of the proposed actions wil paricipate in decisions from the beginninS. The participation of other parties also mav be desirable, including the main public sector property managers/owners (parthicurly muneiles which buld and/or oranie and regulate construction) as well a-8 onsumers and their representaties. The program covers,dwellings and building with and without artificial cooling However, priority i11 gnen to the tertiary sector and to artificialy cooled buildings The mam target clients of the program are the following: (a) pic or bsidid conion (clearly identified main contrtor and desig by arcitects): the fact that construction is the responsibility of the State or local communities, Or that it will receie specific assistance, is conducive to more standar6. oriented and regulatory interventions; (b) priate uprmiddle or upper class constuction undetaken by identifiable property managers/conttators (ac real etate societies): reguatory interventions are more difcult than in thepreceding case, but it is possibletorel on the financing channels used for these buidings in order to convey regulatory requirements (c) other prvate construction; property managers and contractors are of direct interest here. Ihe operations proposed above could be complemented by a regional project (Maghreb countries) incorporating the following tasks (a) collect climate data for North African countries, (b) standardie consucion components whih ae relative independent of the climate, (c) identify and compare the most widespread consuction modes taken as references for establishing the code, (d) estimate the additional costs required for the improvements, (e) develop technical and educational software, and (f) define an approach which w allow quan cation of standards or certification seal This project would comprise research tasks as well as organition of professional exhanges between North African countries and it would coordinate with the actvis of the Mediterranean Environment Plan. Costs and Economic Rate of Return The costs of the program, exduding the hypothetical regional project mentioned aboe, are presented in Table 45. They cover the costs of tenical ta to AM13, including studies and operations caried out by Tunisian and foreig epert, as well as purchases of small -100 - AnnI Page 21of 26 equipment (for eme), computen and software. Ihe total cost of the program Is eolmated at TD 500,000 over fIve year Ihe especied saings rated to cooling new homes ar equivalent to 5% of the estimated coolig for ne home which muo be built in 1995: about 1000 lodging each consming 4,000 kWh/yar or I TOE of primay enerV. Cumu avi thus realied wold reach 1000 TOE/yr in prumay energ by the year 1996. In addition, savin in the teaay sector have been estmat at 10% of the cooling reqWrements M/ for ne terty estab ments in 1995, which repests oxmtel 3000 TOE/yar in primny energy, asming that about halfthe annual iease of electricty consumpion is attributable to now eabl ent The savings for the country have been imated based on the fuel price for electric power plants Table 4.5 shows that, on that bas, the eoonomic IRR for the progam 8 12%. MI/ Estmated at 20% of usleg pmer comupptmion Imoa eeeoz acob to 14 owvo m died above. 101 Anex 1 Page 22 of 26 Tble 4.5 : PRO" OF INPIVED ILDIONG DESIGN - ECOIIIC ANALYSIS (in thouands of DT) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Total COSTS: Comfort, design rutes 40 40 8 T'pobogy, characteristics 100 40 140 28 Building norm 20 30 50 10 Comittee work 30 30 6 lobtmentation 10 20 30 6 Promotion of .xauptes 20 30 50 10 Guide of materials 30 30 6 Norme for equipment 20 30 SO 10 Perermtel/Operatfon 25 25 25 75 15 S/total costs 205 215 75 495 100 Including, studies 40 40 8 Investments SO SO 10 Technical assistance 90 130 220 44 Trainfog, information 60 SO 110 22 Personet/Operation 25 25 25 75 15 BENEFITS: Estimated saving W: 1.50 2.800 4,000 8,300 (in primary TOE) including, residential SOO 800 1.000 2,300 Tertiary 1000 2,000 3.000 6,000 Value in thousands of DT W 120 224 320 CASN FLOW (205) (215) 45 224 320 NPV 2 (12k) IRE 125 p/ On water heading and air conditionfng consptions / XSavings valued at DT 80/TOE, prfee of the fuel powr generation. if Cost estimate nd br om according to supporting doowment No. 9. urce: Nfssion estimates. - 102 - AnIex1 Page 23of 26 Proaram 7 Institutional SugI Eroosed Actions The institutional support forAME, through the National Energy Observatory (ONE), will include implementation of a reliable and coherent data bank foL energy demand in the residential and tertiary sectors including woodfuels and renewable enervy. X/ Ongoing work in the residential sector, in particular the processing of data from STEG's 1989 survey, should be continued. The program for rational management of woodenergy resources involves a complementary survey of households. The program for energy conservation in the residential sector also includes components for monitoring households with electricity and their segmentation according to relevant variables, as well as establishing a data bank on household appliances. Also, through its Directorate of Renewable Energy (DRE) and in close collaboration with STEG, the AME should carty out the Study to asses the global market of photovoltaic systems for decentralized use in households. If the results of the Study are positive, a specific program to develop the required infrastructure for the dissemination of photovoltaic systems could be implemented. A brief description of such a program is given in this Annex The subsectors of the tertiary sector which are still relatively unknown also should be surveyed. This would involve making a reliable count of establishments, and classifying establishments in each subsector according to equipment and enerV consumption. The data base should be updated regularly and simple demand forecasting methods, developed and implemented (including software being developed by AME). The support to AME will enhance its ability to monitor, evaluate, and revise as necessary the programs of the energy management strateg in the residential and tertiary sectors. This will involve regularly keeping track of the realization of objectives for each program and measuring the impact of measures taken, as well as following of the evolution of consumption trends and consumer segmentation. Qsts and Implemntatio The cost of this support is estimated at TD 75,000/year, for a total of TD 375,000 over five years. It covers financing of short-term expertise (XD 45,000/year), surveys (surveyors and logistics) and organizing seminars. The short-term expertise will cover (i) design, realization and processing of surveys; (ii) monitoring and evaluating program results and other ongoing activities in the two sectors concerned, and (iii) training in the above aspects. More technical expertise could also be solicited to help analyze potential energy savings in certain tertiaty subsectors and to search for technical options to exploit this potential X/ 'Me ONE is completing the iMplementton of the Nadonal Enerr InforMation Sytem (SINEN). - 103 - &neL1 Page 24 of 26 ERQSECM ACMlll Rtural elofetrdiato throgb p4Qotxovtaics Brief derian It is estimated by Soci6t6 Tunisienne d'Electricit6 et de Gaz (STEG) that by the end of the Seventh Development Plan (1987-1991) between 250,000 and 300,000 rural houeholds will remain without access to grid electricity. Most of these households are dispersed throughout remote rural areas where the costs of grid extension would be extremely high and electricity consumption would be relatively low, generally limited to lighting, radio and telavision. If these households were to be connected, their electricity consumption would be insufficient to generate the revenues that would be necmssary to cover the costs of grid extension and connection. Connection of these households would require considerable subsidy. Under such circumstances i.e. low electricity consumption by dispersed rural households, decentralied power systems such as photovoltaics are often the economically leastcost option for household power supply. An economic assessment of these systems carried out as part of ESMAPs ongoing energy efficiency study in Tunisia suggests that they are economically less ostly than grid exension in cases where there are fewer than S to 25 low power connections (e.g. households) per kilometer of medium tension line, depending on insolation and average daily load. A project to test and demonstrate such sstems is being carried out by the Agence de Maitrise de l'Energie (AME) with the assistance of GTZ Since June 1989, 90 individual household photovoltaic systems have been installed in the Kef region. ZZ/ Both one and two panel sytems have been installed, capable of providing enough power for basic needs such as lighting, radio and television. These systems cost locally between DT 850 and DT 1,400 depending on the size of the load, eg. more lamps resut in a more costly stem. Formal monitoring of these systems continued through March, 1990. AME has been encouraged oy the eperience to date with the systems, and is considering expanding the program to covet approximately 2000 households with a mix of grant and loan financing. AME has also indicated that demonstration and testing of photovoltaic pumping systems and small wind turbines should be induded in this program at additional cost. A possible source of the loan financingwould be the reallocation of funds under the Power System Efficiency Improvement component of the Bank's Energy Conservation and Diversification Project, which is under preparation. PKoject ObWectives The immediate objective of this activity is to develop a commercally viable infrastructure for the disemination of technically sound household photovoltaic systems in areas / 1S establishments fom the public seator (sho bore port, etc.) have also been equipped wth PV tems with t3p to 5 panels. - 104 - Page 25 of 26 where grid exension would be economically more costy. This would support the broader development objective of the Energy Conservation and Diversification Project to reduce the cost of energy consumption in the Tunisan economy by promoting viable and highly economic investments in enery conservation and substitution. Source of work Conventional rural electification typically involves substantial subsidy. In order to reduce this subsidy, and perhaps even eliinate it, the activity would aim to establish a commercially viable enterprise to undertake the marketing, distribution and maintenance of thes, systems. This enterprise would administer a revolving credit fund capitalied by the initial purchase of 2000 household systems. The enterprise would sell these systems for cash, or on credit; proceeds of these sales or credit payments would be used to purchase more systems which would in turn be sold to other households. Most likely, only 5 to 10% of rural households could afford these systems on a cash basis The availability of credit schemes would increase market size; the longer the payback and lower the payments, the more households could be attracted to the program. If the Government decides that social priorities justify subsidies to increase rural penetration of these systems, loan terms could be adjusted to include indirect subsidies (eg. lower-than-market interest rates). However, subsidization can limit system dissemination since the aviability of government resources may become the binding constraint rather than affordability to households. Although AME is responible for the development and demonstration of alternative energy technologies, SIEG involvement must also be sought to ensure that this activity coinplements ongoing and planned rral electrification activities. This activity would comprise the following components: (a) evaluation of existing household photovoltaic systems regarding both technical performance and consumer acceptability, particularly in light of the level of service demanded and the willingness and ability to pay for that service; (b) identification of areas where such systems would be less cost than conventional grid extension; (c) establishing technical specifications for these systems in light of the findings of (a) above (this would include portable lighting systems as well as community battery charging stems); (d) selection of an orgization, perhaps parastatal or even entirely private sector, to administer the program under AME supervbion (candidates include Tunisian consumer electronics companies or SEREPT Energies Nouvelles, which currently manufactures and markets solar water heaters); (e) procurement of 2000 systems; 105 - ,A 1 Pap 26 of 26 (f) seldcion and training of local rural agrnts for tem Istllatio and maintenance; (g) maetng and Intaltion of the tems; and (h) monitoring of d on and technic qualit controL GdM Mm hadwre ost for a progam of thb sze woud be arod US$2 milion lTe cost of studie and tecnical asian to as the maket, etal t lpeciiaons and deveop an adequae maketing uc would amount to about US$200,000. Total cost of the proect would be US$212 million. 106 - Annex 2 Page 1 of 2 ItISIAs ADNtNISTR1VE DIVISIONS Are RgIon Glvermwnt kml X X T(NIS Tunis 346 OX 132 Arlnm 1,558 1X 58X Ban Arous 02 0 29X S/Total 2.665 1X 100X NORTN EAST NIbeul 2,718 22 30X Zaoun 2,768 2X 30x Bizerte Laii 2X 40X 8/Total 9,241 6X 100X NORTH WET BJa 3,558 2X 22X Jendoubs 3.102 22 192 K:f 4,965 3X 312 i-fana 323 282 S/Total 16.256 10X 100X CENTER WIEST Ktron - 6,712 4X 31X Kusrirn 8,066 5X 372 Sidi Somid J.C 52 32X S/Total 21,M 14X 1002 CENTER EAST ouws 2,621 22 192 NSnastfr 1,019 1X 7X Nados 2,966 22 212 Sfax 2 SX 53X S/Total 14,151 102 100X SOUTH WIEST lafs 8,990 6a 25X Tozeur 4,719 3X 13X Kabbl 22I vi 142 622 S/Total 35,793 23X 1002 SOUTH EAST Gabe 7,175 5 13X Ndsenow 8,588 a6 1" Tetaoulno eM 25 712 S/Total 54,652 36X 1002 GAD TOTAL 154,530 1002 .107 - A= 2 Page 2 of 2 DATA OF 975 AD 19K6 CENSUS (in th_Aanc otf Inhabitants) Anual Growth Populatin 1975 PpuLation 1984 1975-1984 Region Are Irb. X I llousholds sie ih. X X Houtholds Size Popu Hous. Tunis Total 1,050 1OOX 192 195 5.4 1,395 10OX 20X 267 5.2 3.2X 3.6X Urban 906 S6U 332 168 5.4 1,181 8SX 322 229 5.1 3.02 3.52 Rural 145 142 5X 2? 5.7 214 15X 72 37 5.8 4.42 3.7X Including. dispersed 39 42 22 6 6.1 68 52 42 11 6.1 6.32 6.32 North East Total 811 1002 1S5 145 5.6 975 100l 14 178 5.5 2.12 2.32 Urban 419 522 152 76 5.5 504 522 14X 96 5.3 2.12 2.52 Rural 391 48X 14 69 5.7 471 482 142 83 5.7 2.12 2.12 Including, dispersed 341 42 18X 60 5.7 286 29X 17X 50 5.7 -1.9X -2.02 North Wast Total 974 1002 17X 168 5.8 1,104 1002 16X 200 5.5 1.42 2.02 Urban 228 23X 82 41 5.6 291 26X 8X 54 5.4 2.7X 3.32 Rural 746 772 27X 128 5.8 813 742 252 14 5.6 1.02 1.52 Including, dispersed 422 432 222 74 5.7 298 27m 17X 53 5.7 -3.8X -3.7X Center East Total 1,171 lOOX 212 215 5.4 1,449 100X 21X 269 5.4 2.42 2.5X Urban 734 632 26X 135 5.4 895 622 242 178 5.0 2.22 3.12 Rural 437 372X 1 80 5.4 554 382 172 91 6.1 2.7X 1.4X Includirn, dispersd 294 252 1SX 49 6.0 273 19X 162 46 6.0 -0.82 -0.82 Center West total 795 1002 142 143 5.5 1,008 1002 142 175 5.8 2.72 2.32 Urban 135 172 5X 24 5.5 228 23X 62 41 5.6 6.02 6.02 Rural 660 83X 242 119 5.5 780 77X 242 135 5.8 1.92 1.42 Including, dispersed 559 702 292 96 5.8 602 60X 35X 103 5.8 0.82 0.82 South Total 787 1002 142 14S 5.4 1,035 1002 152 184 5.6 3.1X 2.72 Urban 356 45X 132 6 5 5.6 S82 56X 16X 103 5.6 5.62 5.52 Rural 430 S5X 152 81 5.3 453 442 142 81 5.6 0.6 0.02 includfns, dfspersed 260 33X 142 47 5.5 199 192 122 36 5.5 *2.9X -2.92 Tunisfe Totat 5,588 1002 10X 1,010 5.5 6,966 100X 2OOX 1,273 5.5 2.52 2.62 Urban 2,79 502 lOOX 507 5.5 3,681 532 l1OX 701 5.3 3.2X 3.7X Rural 2,809 502 1002 50 5.6 3,285 47X 1002 572 5.7 1.82 1.5X Including, disprsed 1,915 342 1002 333 5.8 1,725 25X lOOX 299 5.8 -1.22 -1.22 Large Towns Tunis SSO 102 202 597 9X 16X 0.9X Arlane 48 1X 2X 99 12 32 8.42 Sfax 199 42 7X 232 3X 6X 1.7X Soue 70 1X 3% 84 12 22 2.12 Bizerte 79 1X 3X 95 12 3X 2.0X Gas 49 _1X 22 92 _1 3X 7.42 SITotal 994 18X 36X 1,197 17X 332 Tos >50.000 4 12 Household a oip of peon living n the sm housing, nat. bachelors but excluding collective pubtic housing. Urban a Counties a to with more than 2000 fihbitants. Dispersed a Isolated houing and villag with less than 50 inhabitant. OM INS. '-4 40 -H-°~~~~~~~~~~~9 'I I CA d.t L : ' I l Dl 111 iLoIl 8 do~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~o rd,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~p, *0d - 109 - AnoL.4 Page 1 of 4 NATIONAL ENERGY SAlANCE 1990 Units Ktoe Natural Crude Petrolte Electrieitv Coal Ga Oil Products Primry Secondaery Totat I Productfon 331 4612 10 4953 2 Imports 70 903 449 1935 3357 3 Exports -3373 -527 -3900 4 Stock variations 0 77 -138 -61 Total avaltable 70 1234 1765 1270 10 0 4349 S Crude oll refining -1765 1673 -92 6 Gas production -18 116 98 7 Electricity production -885 -353 -10 421 -827 8 Lossas and discrepancies 2 18 52 74 Final con 1ption 70 329 0 2823 0 373 3595 9 Consuwptfon by Sector 70 329 0 2710 0 373 3482 a) Industry 70 270 902 193 1435 b) Transport 1046 1 1047 c) Residsntfal 38 358 81 477 d) Tertiary 21 198 79 298 e) Agriculture 206 19 225 10 Non-energy use 113 113 Source: ANE - National En0OwY Observatory/fay 1991. FINAL ENERGY COlSUMPTION IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR (1984) (in Thousds of TOE/year) S/total Natural Fuel-oil S/total Electlrfety End-use Wood lf Charcoal blase oas LPG Kerosm & d esel pet prod (STEG) TOtAL Cookng h 3m8 - S1 459 901 10 125 S7 192 61X 652 74X 583 121 701 2X 19X 9X 301 1001 Spae heatinf 13 19 32 6X 2 22 22 141 1 21 78 9X 16X 241 401 2X 28X 281 5u 1X 1001 s Water heetin 21 21 4 20 16 37 121 8 14 65 7X 0 321 32Z 31X 251 56X 12X 1004 Lightfng 2 41 42 131 17 301 59 71 31 69X 721 281 1001 Applanoes 30 55X 30 31 1001 1001 TOTAL 411 100 511 1001 10 149 136 22 317 1001 S6 1001 U8 8 100 471 11X S8x 1X 171 151 21 33 31001 / Inctuding other bfoms (agricutture resldue. etc.). bW Including bread-cooking with wood and otber b1mass, tea prepsrstion and food-grilling with charcoal. £1 Including water and space heating. So3ee: INS, STE6, Ams and Ouerehi (1986), and missien estimates. - - - - --- - - - -- - - - - - - 1g -W-u- , 9. W Sd & 9 I2 c ' i 9 4 0 > at o S0a 3~~~~~ ~ 4 Sd Sd Sd ,oa 0 b 0 No ftff ------------------- 0 CZ,t 6 Z . S 4 0 g~~ * 0 '.9 SI ft~~~~~~~~~~~~~~t O ,fti *> a., 0 li; v at ! I I I I I I 1 8 ,~.. I I . I I I I 1 I' .. I I I I I X I &.I H I I I I I b I 0. I I. CD -4 1 %11 1 " | 4 I !< w :@ ^ :s 0" p9 9 9o 4 ~a moo~ ~~. 0. 0. .~ .0 3 ft9 tot tO to 9t * tO r0 90 .0000 O0-0t 99 Ph 0 Q & Q t 0 IS. I~ I. I. I. i If 1 d 005 1 0. 1 1W Ix ' I Ii . . . .- ..I s I 9 O 9 W 10 *09 9t 9- IW 9 0 I C I 909090*99909 0I _ __. * ,____, __, _ _, __, _* ' I I $ I O I W I * 1 0W 1 Ul I O I * I H 1 P1~~~~* ,~ ts 0. 1* 0^1s1 o *1s ._ ,_ _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ _ _ , _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ . a ~ ' . t ~ ~ ~ ~ t -eu 00t* 9O - toTOttttt -09 0 t 0 o9 0 HOUSEHILD ENERGY EQUIPMEF IN 1989 Equipmnt Tunis NtEast North West CenreEa Center t South TOWa Uman Rural Re_* mor 68.5 41.7 28.9 17.3 52.7 52.1 46.1 674 13 Telwism. 84.7 71.1 S6.7 39.5 74.7 68.7 68 84.7 42.1 Ralio 77.7 69.8 63.5 42.5 75.2 67.9 67.6 786 50.4 Cooker 89.8 80.3 75.4 67.5 86.4 90.3 82.5 92 67.8 in % of totd households Sourcee lNS, 1991 I'dt (D (D x 0 * 113 . Annex S Page 1 of 2 SALES SUHARY OF TNR NANUFACTURER CF NHOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES (in thousands) 1985 198f 19"? Including Including Including Appliance Total % Slec X Nb. X olec X Nb. X elec X Water-heater 30 9% 4 2Z 20 SX 4 3X 21 7% 5 3% TelevisIons 104 33% 104 57% 71 27X 71 49% 55 19% 55 38% Refrigerators 55 17% 55 30% 54 21% 54 37% 56 20% 56 38% Cookers 79 25% 76 29% 94 337 Including, plates 27 45 59 meating system 33 10% 1 1 25 10% 0 0 33 12% 6 4% A/C systems 3 1% 3 1% 1 1X 1 1% 3 1% 3 2% Washing machines 14 5% 14 8X 14 5% 14 10% 22 8% 22 15 Including, iqworted 7 7 3 3 10 10 Total 317 100% 181 1007 261 100% 144 100% 283 100X 146 100% IncludIng, Stec. 57% 55% 52% Sourez: A!E manufacturer survey and custous statistIcs, 1989. RO)DUCTION OF HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES Total Tunisia Thousands 140 120- 100 L 40S-~ i 20, o~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~o 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Water heater +TV Refrigerator ° Cooker (4 burners) Source: General Directorate of Planning FINAL NEWC- CoNUWKON OF HOTELS (1987) unit 4 Stars 3 Stars 2 Stars Oe. 1 TAL Muwer 37 9X 83 19% 87 20% 228 52 435 100% Mluer of beds 15.009 t5% 34,752 34X 23,946 24% 27,961 28% 101,668 100% eds occpied y x 1,OOOjyear 2,657 6,153 4,240 4,950 18,000 ENlERIT SOE £f: Electricity 2/effectif 100% 100% 100% 100% (*) LPG X/effectif 11% 16X 53X 53% ) htiuat oas 5/effectif 89X 84X 47X 47% (0) Fuel .1t, diesel /effectif 68% 70% () 74% 74% ( COINSUT1ON ME UNITt Numer of audits 5 4 1 10 Electricity klb/bed 27.0 9.5 3.8 1.S C.) LPG kglbed 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 C') Natral ns 3/bed 3.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 M) Fuel Oit, dieset I/bed S.9 2.9 2.5 C') 2.1 M) GLOBAL CoNUJIPTION: Electricity Uhb/year 71,652 47% 58,303 38X 16,265 11% 7,426 5% 153,645 100% LPG tonear 199 14% 198 14X 493 34X 55 39X 1,465 100 Natwal gas x1,0000/year 7,079 41% 6,219 36X 2,008 12% 1,876 11 17,183 100% fuel Oll, diesel 3/year 10,667 2JX 12,46 32% 7,810 20% 7,660 20% 38.601 100% Electricity TOE/Year 6,162 2X 5,014 23S 1,399 13% 639 7r 13,213 21X LPG TOE/year 220 1X 219 1% S45 52 636 7X 1,620 3X Ntural gs TOE/year 6,371 29% 5,597 26X 1,807 17X 1,688 18% 15,46 24% Fuel Olt, diest TOE/yer 9,1 42% 10 t725 50 _.6_ 64% LM 69% N Su2 TOTAL (tap/an) 21,931 100% 21,555 100% 10,470 100% 9,554 100% 63,510 100% C) Nission estihtes. OQ One star, no classi?ied, family boards and holiday resorts. m 198T estimate based on a constant occupation ratfo of SOX. Accordinig to ANE mrked Suvey for 400 hotels (79 amexes). o " 4 .116 - Annx 7 Page 1 of 1 FIAL OEM C01WI011 Of RESTAURANTS (1967) lour1at1c 1rk-ottst10 wAtl Unit Ratawrnt Retwant Reetawt Cafes/bars gf TOTAL NKa*sr 1961 b? 102 JO 1,00 2,000 4,102 ENERGY 80URCE f/t LPG 3 79X a6@ 86X Natural as 671 191 13X 13X Electricity 1001 1001 1001 100X C011NPWTIO6 e UNITs LPG kg/yer 2,067 2.199 1,SU 1,S48 Natural as caE/eMr 6,600 2,500 1,200 1,200 Electricity bib/year 15,134 6,8? 3,89? 3,89? GLOBAL CONJPT ION: LPG Tyar 71 1.29 16 2.935 6.302 68X Natural oa TOE/"r 449 361 184 30? 1,321 14X Electricity tOl/year in . 48 -a l7 181 TOTAL 659 2,380 2,347 3,912 9,298 100X Estimted frm mT data. Ex,uirn hrcool for food-witing. 9/ Cowaptnin assimlated to the com*t41on of salt restauat. s Surwve Turkish baths/restaurat" JuaW 1969). *117- Annex Page. of 2 FINAL ENERGY CONSIWRITION OF RKISI BAIlS (1967) Districts, Oistricts, Qural towns Rurat ton Rural tows TOTAL >10,000 inh. p2,000 lnh. 42,000 lnh. Nuiber 1984 I/ 94.00 137.00 1,100.00 Population 197 3,714,3S9.00 625,748.00 1,371,616.00 Averge population 39,515.00 4,568.00 1,247.00 Turkish both/lOCO inh. 0.I0 0.40 0.10 Nmber 646.00 262.00 137.00 1,04S.00 ENERGY SORCE: Diesel Su 53% Ditesel wood 12% Diesel + kerosene 6X Kerosen 22% 6% Kerosene + wood 6X Wood 11% 19% 100% Natural gas 1% Electricity 100% 80s o% GLOBAL CONSUMPTION (TOE/year): Diesel 17,997.00 6,848.00 24,845.00 49.4% Keroswn 6,739.00 895.00 7,634.00 15.2% Natural gsN 227.00 227.00 0.5% Wood 4,260.00 4,865.00 8,230.00 17,355.00 34.5% Electricity 167.00 54.00 18.00 23.00 0.5% TOTAL 29,390.00 12,662.00 8,248.00 50,299.00 100.0X ConsLption per unit: (in TOE/Turkish bath/year) D1esel: Wood: Diesel only 4 Wood only 60 Diesel + wood 1S Wood + Diesel 40 Diesel + kerosene 20 Wood + kerosene 40 Kerosene: Kerosene only 42 Natural gs 35 Kerosene + wood 1S Etectricity 3.000 Keroene*. diesel 20 (kWh/year) IV According to 1984 INS Census. oureg: Survey aTurkish baths-restaurantsu (NaJure 1969). .118 - nne Page 2 of 2 CCKPLEUNTuMY REVULTS OF TNt TI*KISN mATN8 MuMRW (Population 1964) tuter Both$/ Not TOW REF. CAT pO9 boths a 2,000 prm Kamm Disl Wood Ker+iood Oiet*.oad Known 1 I 1646 0 0.00 1 2 1 1594 1 1.25 1 3 3 4316 1 0."6 1 4 2 2645 1 0.76 5 I 1280 0 0.00 6 1 1275 0 0.00 7 2 3985 3 1.51 3 8 1 897 0 0.00 9 2 3723 1 0.54 1 10 3 6189 2 0.65 2 11 2 2976 4 2.69 1 1 2 12 2 2222 0 0.00 13 1 1915 0 0.00 14 1 1806 0 0.00 I5 2 3025 1 0.66 1 16 3 5274 3 1.14 1 1 1 IT 2 3056 2 1.31 2 18 3 7462 1 0.27 1 19 2 2970 1 0.67 1 TOTAL 58256 21 1 9 4 1 2 4 6K 5Su 2A% 6K 12X -ANS CAT 7 7 7 0 0 1 0 0 0 TOTAL 1 1 1 1 AVERAGE 1488 0.1 0.2 1.0 # ANSWERS CAT a 8 8 1 4 2 0 0 2 TOMAL 2 13 8 1 6 2 4 AVERAGE 3075 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 2.0 #ANSWERS CAT 4 4 4 0 2 1 1 2 0 TOTAL 3 7 3 3 1 1 2 AVERA6E 5810 1.8 0.6 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 CAT I * Rural toans with urder 2,000 inhabItants. CAT 2 M ural towns wfth 2 to 4,000 nhabftante. CAT 3 R ural towns with more than 4,000 rnhibitnts. -119. & 9 Page 1 of 1 LPO AND KER0UE PRtICE (In by/103 LPS Kerosen 1984 1985 1984 196 1984 19M 196 198? CIF Price 189 190 92 139 203 225 115 142 STIR sote pre6 72 72 72 72 78 111 122 Trnport, marein, costs 92 101 101 101 22 27 28 29 Taxes 33 34 34 34 2 29 31 31 Retell price (A) 189 208 206 206 121 134 170 182 CIf pric eosts + transport + mrlns () 281 2 193 240 225 252 144 171 A-s (92) (83) 15 (32) (104) (118) 26 11 fJUM 1988 date from ETAP. Price structure at July 1, 1988, ed eritire bae. - 120- Annex 1° Page 1 of 1 FORUCM? POPULATION (1987-2000) (in maber of households) Ann~ual growth 1975-"984 Share Rhumn Area Popu Mmu. 87 95 2000 Nen 8t Non 95 Non 200 Tunis Totat 3.2% 3.6X 22% 23X 24% 296 392 467 North East Total 2.1% 2.3X 14X 14X 13X 191 230 258 North West Total 1.4% 2.0% 15% 152 14% 212 248 273 Center East Total 2.4% 2.5X 21% 21% 21X 290 354 401 Center Vest Total 2.7% 2.3% 14% 13X 13X 188 22S 252 South Total 3.1% 2.tX 14X 15X 152 199 246 281 Tunisia Total 2.32 2.6X 1,3t6 1,69S 1,9t7 (x 1,000 household) Urban 3.2% 3.7% 782 1,052 1,262 Rural 1.8S 1.5X 594 643 666 Inc., dispefsed -1.2% -1.2% 291 2 261 Tunisia Urban 57X 62X 65% (in 2) Rural 43X 38X 35X Inc., dispersed 21% 16X 14X Sam: 1975 and 1984 INI eensus and mission astimtes. - 121. Annex II Page 1 of 3 VAUNU.D OISIRIUTIO P LY OF tPIN R Level of Averp smuut Ave gp swat Expenditure Variotion 75-5s variation 8060 (OT/pers/yr) U mS MOTE TOT *100 -18.45 -8.35 -9.95 13.75 -11. -12.0k 100-350 -0.5X 2.21 1.OX .0.2X 1.95 1.1t 150-500 2.51 3.L 2.91 1.8X 3.41 2.75 )500 9.75 6.01 L.9 7.31 8.7X T.65 >800 1O.65 6.65 10.01 9.4X 13.4 9.9 3Mj: Natfoul Surveys fudold midgt NW Ipmnitur tin, 1975, 160 i N 196. POPAULT OITIUJTIU ACCtUS TO WIDIIU MD ARIA (5) Cetmnt prfe of 165) 175 19 195 1975 190 1965 4100 6.6 1.5 0.6 22.0 16.1 8.0 100-150 9.4 4.6 3.2 17.7 18.2 16.2 150-250 26 17.5 13.2 29.? 30.9 31.7 250-350 17.1 20.1 18.5 14.2 15.5 16.5 350-500 17.2 21.1 22.1 8.7 10.9 13.7 500S-00 13.5 20.4 2.5 5.6 6.4 8.4 "800 10.2 14.8 19.4 2.1 2.0 3.5 100.0 100.0 ".5 100.0 100.0 100.0 Urban w Districts m rural tam with mr thw 2,00. .122- Anng 1 Page 2 of 3 STRUCT OF HOUSEHOLD EW ITME (DT/peraVyeor) (Comtant primes of 1965) 1975 1980 1965 Total expenditure 320 100 392 100 471 100 arowtper y"or 4.1X 3.7X Inctuding: Food 134 421 164 42U 164 39X Groth/yeor 4.1X 2.31 Bouwin 74 231 93 24X 102 22X Grwth/year 4.6X 2.0X Energy 12 4X 17 4X 24 SX Growth/yeur 7.01 7.0X Apptiances 3 1X 4 1X 5 1X Growth/year 3.41 2.91 S~fl: INS National Surves, Bubet wd etm ritue. - 123 - Annex 11 Page 3 of 3 HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE Total Tunisia Dinars (1986)/person/year Goo 300 . ... t. , ~ ~~~..... .. .... .......- f 400 200 . )::::~~~.:... ... ....:.:.:z7;; 200 100 0 197 19860 1986 Energy & Housing CM Food Total expenditure By region in 1985 Diner. (1988)/person/year 800- z > 7 ........................................ 200 0 TUVN1 N-E N-W C-E C-W SOUTH Energy M Housing MI Food Total expenditure ouroo. Household Expenditure aurve INa -124 - A 12 Page 1 of 1 POULATION DISTRIBUTION PU ER PEITWE CATEGORY Household D1stribution () Nwubr of households (thouands) Area Cates 1984 1987 1995 2000 1984 1987 1995 2000 Rural 1 40X 37K 26X 22X 229 217 167 146 2 40K 43K 48X 50K 229 252 309 333 3 17X 18X 23m 25X 97 107 148 166 4 & 5 3 3X 3K 3X 17 18 19 20 S/total 572 594 643 666 Urban 1 a% 7X 5X 3X 54 55 53 38 2 268 268 258 25S 181 203 263 315 3 32K 31X 26X 23X 221 242 274 290 4 23X 23K 26X 29X 164 180 274 366 5 12X 13X 18i 20K 81 102 189 252 S/total 701 782 1,052 1,262 TOTAL 1,273 1,376 1,695 1,927 Note: Househotd distribution per category was ettmted from Amex 11 for the following categories: Level of category Eipenditure (DT/pesorVyr) 1 < 100 2 100 A 350 3 150 00 4 So0 S 800 Sou: Amob and Ouergh1 (1986), INS survey ilousehold Bucget. Expniture (1980) and mission estimtes. - 125- Annex Page 1 of 4 CONSUMPTION TRENDS OF OTHER PETROLEUM PROOUCTS (Urban Areas) Cons/hous Households Using ConsAmption (xlO0O0 TOE/year) Product Cate (TOE/year) 1984 1987 1995 2000 19864 198 1995 2000 DIesel 4 1.00 2Z 3X 4X 5X 3 5 11 18 5 1.33 14X 1SX 18X 20X ii ?1 k 67 S/totel 18 25 57 86 Fuet Ol 5 1.03 4X 4X 5 6% 3 5 10 16 TOTAL DIESEL+FUEL OIL 22 30 67 10O xl0O0 TOE/year 21 29 66 99 Growth/year 10.82 10.8% 8.52 Natural as 3 0.34 2X 3X 4X SX 2 2 4 5 4 0.40 5S 6X 82 102 3 4 9 15 5 O.44 142 152 182 202 A .1 15 33 TOTAL 10 13 28 42 xl,000 m3/yr 10,865 14,630 31,203 46334 Growth/year 10.4X 9.9X 8.22 -126 * Annex la Page2 of 4 LPG CONSUMPTION TRENDS Households Cons/how. Consrmptfon (x1,000 TOE/year) Area Cates ustno TOE/yr 1984 197 199S 2000 Rural I 38X 0.12 11 10 8 7 2 70X 0.13 21 23 28 30 3 89X 0.14 12 13 18 21 4 & 5 95% 0.20 _ . 4 4 S/total 47 S0 S8 62 Urban 1 63% 0.11 4 4 4 3 2 83% 0.14 21 23 30 36 3 93% 0.16 33 36 40 43 4 89% 0.20 29 31 48 64 5 86% 0.24 17 21 39 S1 S/total 102 115 161 197 TOTAL 149 165 219 259 x1,000 TOE/yr 135 149 198 234 Growth/yr. 3.4X 3.6X 3.4X KEROSENE CONSUMPTION TRENDS Households Cons/hous. Conswption (xI,000 TOE/year) Area Cat" using TOE/yr 1984 1987 1995 2000 Rural I 89X 0.16 33 32 24 21 2 84X 0.17 32 35 43 46 3 64X 0.18 11 12 17 19 4 & 5 40% 0.20 1 1 . _2 S/total ?? 80 8S 88 Urban I 83X 0.16 7 7 7 5 a 63% 0.18 20 23 29 35 3 S0u 0.14 16 1? 19 20 4 41X 0.13 9 10 15 20 5 35% 0.25 2 92 1i -a S/total 59 66 87 103 TOTAL 136 146 1i2 190 x1,000 TOE/ yr 132 141 167 184 Growth/yr 2.3% 2.1X 2.0% .127 - hmm1 Page 3 of 4 wOOD CONSUMPtION TRENDS Households Cons/hous Consumption 4x1,000 TOE/year) Area Categ using TOE/yr 1984 1987 1995 2000 Rural 1 81X 1.06 196 186 144 126 2 81% 0.76 140 15S 189 204 3 68% 0.63 42 46 6 72 4 5 30% 0.30 .2 __2 2& . S/total 380 388 398 403 Urban 1 35S 0. A 11 11 11 8 2 23% P.36 15 17 22 26 3 7% 0.35 51 _ .2 7 S/total 31 34 39 41 TOTAL 411 422 437 444 x1,000 tons/yr 1.097 1,126 1,166 1,184 Growth/yr 0.9X 0.4% 0.3% CHARCOAL CONSUNPTION TRENDS Households Cons/hous Consuwpt1on (x,000 TOE/year) Area Cates using TOE/yr 19864 1987 1995 2000 Rural 1 40% 0.15 14 13 10 9 2 62% 0.14 20 22 27 29 3 7BX 0.17 13 14 19 22 4 & 5 30% 0.10 1 1 1 1 S/totat 47 50 57. 60 Urban 1 77X 0.12 5 5 5 3 2 76% 0.14 19 22 28 34 3 72X 0.14 22 24 2? 28 4 35% 0.09 5 6 9 12 5 24% 0.09 _2 . 4 6 S/total 53 58 73 83 TOTAL 100 108 129 143 x1,000 tons/yr 143 154 185 204 Grorth/yr 2.6% 2.3% 2.0% - 12e- &nex 13 Page 4 of 4 ELECTRICITY COSUMPTION TRENDS Cons/hous Nouseholds using Constion (xl000 TOE/year) Area Cate TOE/yr 1984 1987 1995 2000 1984 1987 1995 2000 Rural 1 0.03 16 18X 25% 29X 1 1 1 1 2 0.03 29 34% 49% S8X 2 2 4 5 3 0.05 56X 61X T6% 76X 3 3 5 6 4 & 5 0.14 56X 61X 76X 76X 1 Z .. 2 S/total 6 8 12 14 Urban 1 0.02 58% 65 84X 96%X 1 1 1 1 2 0.04 83% 86 95% 100% 6 7 10 12 3 0.06 96%X 97% 100% 100X 12 14 16 17 4 0.10 99% 99X 100% 100% 17 18 28 37 S 0.17 100% 100% 100% 1OOX 14 A M U S/total 50 57 87 111 TOTAL S6 65 100 125 In GV/yr. 653 757 1. 158 1.456 Growth/yr. 5.0 5.SX 4.7% MIg: Household distribution per category is given fn Amnex 12. Imrc: Amus and Ourghl (1986). STES electrification targets wnd mission estimates. SVAES OF LPG, KEROSENE AND ELECTRICITY LPG EOSENE ELECTRICITY LT Sates 6rowth sales Growth Satles Nuer Growth Cam. Yer (TM) (TOE) (TM) (TOG) (VA) Cwmetlas per ca=. (klcorl.) Growth 1975 86,636 1976 61,623 110,940 24,304 28.1X 387 41,391 876 1977 66,794 5,171 8.4" 104,438 (6,302) -S.92 "9 494,526 53,135 12.04 908 3.72 1978 79,180 12.386 18.5X 113,881 9,443 9.02 515 549,836 55,310 11.22 936 3.1t 1979 91,409 12,229 15.42 112,333 (1,5S4) -1.42 577 612,464 62,628 11.4" 942 0.O7 1980 106.027 26,847 33.92 118,938 6,605 5.92 645 679,110 66.64 10.9X 950 0.8X 1981 122,168 16,141 15.22 126,74S 7,807 6.6X 731 753,923 74,813 11.02 970 2.1t 1982 129,475 7,307 6.02 122,287 (4,458) -3.52 790 816,427 62,S4 8.32 967 -0.32 1983 143.244 13,769 10.62 113,306 (8,981) -7.32 874 889,534 73,107 9.0X 982 1.62 1984 171,430 28,186 19.72 148,228 34,922 30.82 965 938,069 48,S35 5.52 1.029 4.72 1 1985 184,209 12,779 7.5X 158,891 10,t6 7.22 1,052 1,006,678 68,609 7.32 1,04S 1.62 1986 195,762 11,553 6.32 136,998 (21,893) -13.8X 1.097 1,079,512 72,834 7.22 1,016 -2.82 1987 210,140 14,37 7.32 158,673 21,675 15.82 1,177 1,138,600 59,288 S.52 1,034 1.72 1988 223,412 13,272 6.32 1,240 1,200,300 61,S00 5.42 1,033 0.02 Growth 19-84 14.42 S.1X 9.62 1.82 Growth 1984-87 7.02 2.32 6.72 0.22 Growth 1977-87 12.1X 4.32 8.72 1.32 sos: Petrotem prohcts distributors md stEG. OX 0 ox> - 130 - nnex is Page 1 of 1 LIST OF EQUIPMENT SUGGESTED FOR CUSTOM DUTY REDUCTION EAuivment to benefit from limited custom duty status - Measuringequipment:probes,thermometers(inparticularrecordhig.thermometers), water flowmeters, wattmeters - Integrated measuring sets - Regulating and programming equipment Power factor reducers - Centralized control systems - Insulating materials Technologies to be favoured through differential measures in relation with less ecomomic competing technologies = Heating/Cooling equipment that can be transformed into heat pump systems - ;Fluorescent lighting I High efficiency components of solar water heaters (e.g selective coatings) - Efficient valves and mixing equipment Some equipment and materials should not benefit from preferential custom duty status, such as: wBasic thermal equipment: boilers, heating/cooling equipment, etc. - Most building materials, even double-glazing .131. Annex 16 Page 1 of I FORECAST NARKET Of MAIN COOKING FUELS (trend In thousad of households) New Ustrs a/ Total UIeI= a/ 196 f-1995 IM-2000 196K 1987 1995 2000 total Ave/yr Total Ave/yr Yood kY Rural U 2 45 492 507 34 3 16 1 Urban _lt 83 -a 10 1S 1 _ 1 Totat 518 541 590 6.13 49 4 24 2 Including, cooking 186 195 212 221 18 2 8 1 LPG Rural 350 371 430 456 58 S 26 2 Urban 605 -.7 9123 1 098 m3i ?1 is ii Total 95S 1,047 1,342 1,554 294 27 212 19 including, cooking 927 1,016 1,301 1,507 285 26 206 19 Kerosene Rural U6S 481 S10 524 30 3 14 1 Urban 365 404 525 613 120 11 89 8 Total 830 885 1,035 1,138 150 14 103 9 Inctuding, cooking 267 276 290 298 14 1 8 1 Natural Gas Total 24 32 69 102 37 3 33 3 IV y Including end-users other than cooking. hi y including other biomass use and bread-making. .132 - Annx17 Page 1 of 2 Tabile I OWVIEW OF CIARw PICOUCTNU PARMNE Parmter Noumd no.1 Nound no.2 (1) (2) wood weight wet (ttne) 7.3 5.5 Noisture content wood (Z I) 23.1 34.? Charcolt yield wet (tes) 1.71 0.80 Noisture content charcoal (t b) 7.7 6.6 Charcal composftien Fixed carbon () 65.5 74.1 Noisture content (M) 7.7 6.6 Volatile content (O 25.8 14.2 Ash content (3) 1.0 S.1 Teo size (peros) 1 2 Wood cutting (persondays) iS Wood preparation (persrnday) 1 8 Lseling (perondey) 1 1 Nod coatructfon (persayp) 2 4 Cwarnisation dration (*d) 9 - 10 9 - 10 Chrcol harvesting (persnday) 2 2 Total persondey 21 (3) 15 (4) Carbonisation efficileny (3) (tet wood dcharcoal wiht basis) 23.4 14.5 Crbnonisation efficiency (3) (dry wood and charcol weight basls) 28.1 20.8 Chrcol production (kg/persondy) 81 53 (1) using rootwd (frm mquis buhe) near Nefas in the North West reion (2) using asin-aw prepared oa wood (AchintlbW) (3) price pr kg of charcoal proa paid by erchant to dcrot producers: 0,090 CT/kg (4) price per kg of chrcoal pro_d paid by mrchnt to chercoal producers: 0.060 OT/kI fiwre mi"fssn findings - 133 - Annex 17 Page 2 of 2 Tab.le s : CNA*CAL PROIUCT LABOUR COST Cost Cse 1 C0s82 (1) (2) DT/kg charcoal DT/ko charcoal (off roadbide) (off roadside) Nwmtal cuttinSWpreparation /carbonination 0.090 Nmchanical cutting 0.020 Preparatfon/carbonfation 0.060 Transport to roadside 0.010 0.010 CheckingJcontrot/sackif/ loding 0.002 0.002 Total labour costs 0.102 0.092 (1) wood preparation with hand equipwant (2) wood preparation wfth mechanical equipment (chain saws) Iourc: mlssion findings (North East region) * 134- Ano 18 Page 1 of 4 Table 14: Resuts fom Water Boig Tes with Gas Stoves Stove Power Turn-Down Pan Eff Name Burner Max Min Ratio Size (kW) (kW) (-) (mm) (% Sotacer , Large 3,5 1,3 2,8 240 49 220 49 Middle 2,0 0,6 3,2 220 55 200 53 Small 1.1 0,6 1,9 180 46 Atlas Large 3,7 0,7 5,0 240 50 220 46 Middle 1,S 0,S 3,1 200 54. 180 S0 Small 0,9 0,3 3,8 180 54 Confort Luxe Large 2,0 n.a. n.a. 240 55 .220 54 Middle 1,5 n.a. n.a. 200 52 Small 0,8 n.a. nl.a 180 St Confort Economy Large 2,0 0.4 5,4 220 54 Middle 1,0 0,4 2,4 200 54 180 54 Small 0,7 0,3 2,0 180 53 So3acer HP 3 Large 2,1 1,0 2,1 180 52 Middle 1,7 0,8 2,2 180 58 Small 1,0 0,4 2,4 180 57 Sotacer HP 1 3,2 0,6 5,3 240 46 * 135 - Pae 2 of 4 Table 1S: Water Boiing Test Reulb with Kerosene, Chara and Woodstoves Name Power Turn-Down Pan Eff Max Min Ratio Size (kW) (kW) (-) (mm) (%) Sotulus Economy 1,1 0,4 2,7 220 46 200. 42 Sotulus Luxe 1,9 0,9 2,2 220 43 200 45 Superior 2,9 0,7 4,5 240 54 220 49 200 46 Charcoal Clay Canoun Maxi 6,7 2,3 . 2,9 240 10 Clay Canoun Midi 4,1 1,4 2,9 200 9 Clay Canoun Mini 3,8 1,1 2,6 180 10 Metal Canoun Maxi 4,5 0,8 6,2 220 11 Meml Canoun Midi 2,1 0,3 6,7 180 14 Ghana hModel 2,4 0,4 6,3 220 18 200 17 180 14 Woody Fuels Multi-Pan Stove 2,6 0,5 6,8 240 30 220 28 200 23. Open Fire 2,7 1,2 2,5 240 18 220 21 200 18 - 136- Ar I& Page 3 of 4 Tsble 16: Reslb from Controlled Cooking Test Name Burner Sauce Couscous Fuel SEC (kg) (kg) (kg) (/lkg) Sotacer Middle 3.2 1,7 0,17 1,6 Atlas 3,2 1,7 0,18 1,8 Confort Luxe 2,9 1,6 0,17 1,7 Confort Economy 3,0 1,4 0,15 1,6 Soacer HP 3 3,4 1,6 0,12 1,1 Sotacer HP 1 3,2 1,6 0,12 4,2 Kerosene Sotulus Economy 3.9 1,7 0,14 1,1 Sotulus Luxe 3,9 1,6 0,14 1,1 Superior 2,8 1,7 0,15 1,4 Charcoal Clay Canoun Maxi 3,7 1,7 0,73 3,9 Metal Canoun Maxi 3,2 1,6 0,59 3,6 Ghana Model 3,3 1,7 0,56 3,6 WfoodyFuels Open Fire 3,4 1,7 1,36 3,9 Muldi-Pan Stove 3,2 l,8 1,12 3,2 * 137 v is Page 4 of 4 Table17: Summaty of Tet Re=ts Fuel Stove Name UTait Price Name Price Energy Savings (Dinar/TOE) (Dina) S%) kg8 223 Table Cookers > 170 55 % Hot Plates Sotacer HP-3 60 70 % Sotacer HP-l 40 70 % Keroene itre 194 Primus Type 15 70 96 Superior 15 65 % Charcoat kg 429 C!ay Canoun 0,600 0 % Metal Canoun 1,200 10 % Ghana Model 2,000 10 % Woody Fuels kg 16 Open Fire 0,000 0 % Multi Pan Stove 1,800 20 * C~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ mun um It tougu?a &c.taIliti cs-Tc&ico*oaie !______ ll mUI tUtut nuns mUOl ! IIiI! ! tdtisilie !! ! ! Itot ! I! hjilt rlditionell Yajine Iren ! Taise llsieiI t r aitioeUt I tn II I tlC I ?Iu? I ! lprleatisu !! eu ttno cult. ! Dimnte: 31c I liunttte: 3O U !1 ! ! c utible M 3eis I a I on II hois et ezerbn.ts I sil I tunis et I in I U ! ! !3 I1 ! U d' u I IezcrenI its lauiaul I i to d pls U Pal! T ii e Pal tails I Pak UJim i!5 hi ta a IPas Talout I Pail tao I hal Taul I iledtJet(I%) !! 5.8 I 17.3 ! 2C.6 ! I. ! 3.8 i 2.1 1.5 ! ~~~~~~Il I M ~~~~~~I I80 ! tio tiIcifit"11 6.CX ! 2.1 I 1! ! butiat It - Oualit h d pa I Pnt susitier 1e I - a*td I! naitift I iMuctia It la I tilueto a1t I I I ! l! - Traiton !his I lcaleesut !! !csmba e tlot o h !cotsInuationdi t ! ! !! ! ! !! I is I bis ! ! 2 ! tsces$slests !l Cmssomstll ! -Uleu&tre I -uttile ICi. so_utiuu i Colt ! I } I ! !!Uhis ! -I Dstributlu I I! his ! i ! t ! !! !irrlulllre ! !! ! ! ! ! l !! ! t !! ! ! ! ! t~~~~~~~t II a _~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~ ~~~~ ~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ! ! 1 !_!t_ !i I leuuaemu U hr 3 pinesr I Usmeitre I !tilistios lIeu }! I Cdt I lisae I !Tetatimne ! !! ! utibsl age In liea UH I 'alioraltio ! ! !!__________ !his ! !! ! ! ! bosluftes ! f ! IcetaiUit& !! Traditiga ! Na cwet4 I onl metI Tradition ! letu)llt t par- ic te I !Eon ulgarisie ! P '0 I II I Inuiq~~~~~ ~~~ ~ ~~~amis U IieelausdeI } II 1 ! I! !prabhinoteciu- !1 ! !! ! ! !! ! uesro,isolros ! ! ! CIt !1 1.E o! 3.SD 2 i3 i I 1 - ! lectoreatit on necoreatstisi I I Cmatare !! tajise llui i i rdprlser. !! - tllt t ielngu t s eo aoint ! ! !!!! - lw tests mr la to tr dtlmeUs non eneore r&ahish par Il e ! ! !!U!! - Ihe s Ite tt tests est I pvoir hour suIoKent ls alionatio it ! !! !! *etloser to produit final propesi per wuisatilo lat ie. i dt I-W o mueS§owu; IIIIOU It tIconunS 3,0111 I lcc.ptabilit4 locio-Techico-tcouiqe v "-- - '~~~! ! !' --- _______ _ i! flLIf CAJOl (Pain tajinel i! flBi1 CISIIU ti flaII YOU ! ...lddaie . !! I .! ! ! I Calm ?raiitiounel Cous Sit. I Caton llnort !! cwdsinie Colobiene !! IoU laroaui! ! _ _t__i_ti_ 1! ! ! !! !! ! iCtpdtiblo h 5is i, Paois ! lois i! Pitrole I! his T ' ' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~! ! ' 'l " I -H _ i - 1 ! -- -- tiI- S it - ! oet I (1 . 3.t 2 5.9 ! 1.4 HI 1! 2.4i -I!- !! I----! !!- '! !tsmtion spcifile !! t.1 I.1 C 5.0 !! !! 2.1! ! uataes ! f Faible rusetion ! PoIsibilit4 de IH !! - labstitultin as bois ! ! !! !. dI la toonnation I substitatoi I !! !! - htre utilisation ! !! ! dt bois ! his ! ! - Poibilitd f'ue ftue ! ! !! ! ! !! 1I -toduction loal i ! !! !!!!!!- I H plicit4 ! | I1CeRiettS !! ! i i! IOB fOBCtiOlLeNt !!~~~~~~I - *0o1 ezistentco sir le ! I Icovlints It I I on fonctionneont 1V I oosac rI ! !1 ! !6 !!!! local actuellient I V! ! I !! !! - WMu ite di pu diffireste i i! ! i !! !! lapain tna itioued ! * tj I ----!-- ----- !!------!----!------ - -- issargues Is slua rialiss i ssais raliss ! tsais realises !! Prodhit rejete !! ! !! ist Uajine ! avec ajile ! aveC TaJiaie ! ! ! !! traditionel ! traditiouel ! traiitionnel !! ! i !!!- g -!----!!~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~H- ----- ----- --!- ! lcceptabilit4 V Tradition ion vulqaris& I ion mO 1lgaris4 V IOn nigaris&e i loe eactre nItaris4 ! f! ! ! !! !! ! - V !--------! ---------!------ ! Contaire ! Pit do prodit nouveat i proposer it leoistance de !! fili&te abialodie 1opr !! fili4re tres proletteuse I !I If ! olitids locau eqgi alant et a ano ezistaue ! non oictioane t la !! nirte ene dnlue actios ! b,s ' Ii Il' ioratoa s Om son es. ii eaiete securisante. ii sutente. I iI II i| ! Ft x ENERGY SECTOR MANAGEMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME COMPLETED ACTIVITIES Counhy Ac*vky Date Number SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (AFR) Africa Regional Anglophone Africa Household Energy Workshop (English) 07/88 085/88 Regional Power Seminar on Reducing Electric Power System Losses in Africa (English) 08/88 087/88 Institutional Evaluation of EGL (English) 02/89 098/89 Biomass Mapping Regional Workshops (English - Out of Print) 05/89 - Ptancophone Household Energy Workshop (French) 08/89 103/89 Interafrican Electrical Engineering College: Proposals for Short- and Long-Term Development (English - Out of Print) 03/90 11290 Bioma8s Assessment and Mapping (English - Out of Ptint) 03/90 - Angola . nergy Assessment (English and Portuguese) 05/89 4708-ANG Power Rehabilitation and Technical Assistance (English) 10191 142/91 Benin Energy Assessmet (English and French) 06/85 5222-BEN Botawan Energy Assessment (English) 09/84 4998-BT Pump Electrification Prefeasibility Study (English) 01/86 047/86 Review of Electricity Service Connection Policy (English) 07/87 071/87 Tui Block Farms Electrification Study (Englsh) 07/87 072/87 Household Energy Issies Study (English) 02/88 - Urban Household Energy Strategy Study (English - Out of Print) 05/91 132/91 Burldna Paso Energy Assessment (English and French) 01/86 5730-BUR Technical Assistance Program (English) 03/86 052/86 Urban Household Energy Strategy Study (English and French) 06/91 134/91 Burundi Energy Assessment (English) 06/82 3778-BU Petroleum Supply Management (Out of Print) 01/84 012/84 Status Report (English and French) 02/84 011/84 Presentation of Energy Projects for the Fourth Five-Year Plai (19834987) (English and French) 05/85 036/85 Improved Charcoal Cookstove Strategy (English and French) 09/85 042/85 Peat Utilization Project (English) 11/85 046185 Energy Assessment (English and French) 01/92 9215-BU Cape Verde Energy Aem t (English and Portuguese) 08/84 5073-CV Household Energy Strategy Study (English) 02/90 110/90 Comoros Energy Assessment (English and French) 01/88 7104-COM Congo Energy As t(English) 01/88 6420-COB Power Development Plan (Engi;sh and French) 03/90 106/90 C6te d'Ivoire Eney Assesent (English and French) 04/85 5250-IVC Improved Biomass Utilization (English and French) 04/87 069/87 Power System Efficiency Study (Out of Print) 12/87 - Power Sector Efficiency Study (French) 02/92 141/91 Ethiopia Energy Assessment (English) 07/84 4741-ET Power System Efficiency Study (English) 10/85 045/85 Agricultural Residue Briquetting Pilot Project (English) 12/86 062/86 Bagasse Study (English) 12/86 063/86 Cooldng Efficiency Project (English) 12/87 - Gabon lnergy Ass (English) 07/88 6915-GA -2- Country Ac*ivi& Date Namber The Gambia nergy Am t (nglish) 11/83 4743-GM Solar Water Heating Retrofit Project (English) 02/85 030/85 Solar Photovoltaic Applicatios (English) 03/85 032/85 Pettoleum Supply Maage_mt Assistance (English) 04/85 035/85 Ghana Energy Aessmt (English) 11/86 6234-OH Energy Rationalization in the Industrial Sector (English) 06/88 084/88 Sawmill Residues Utilization Study (English) 11/88 074/87 Guinea Energy Assessment (Out of Print) 11/86 6137-GUI Guinea-Bissau Energy Assment (English and Portuguese) 08/84 5083-OUB Recommended Technical Assstance Projects (English and 04/85 033/85 Portuguese) Management Options for the Electric Power and Water Supply Subsectors (English) 02/90 100/90 Power and Water Institutional Restuctuing (French) 04/91 118/91 Kenya Energy At (nglish) 05182 3800-KE Power System Efficiency Study (English) 03/84 014/84 Status Report (Enh) 05/84 016/84 Coal Conversion Action Plan (nglih - Out of Print) 02/87 - Solar Water Heating Study (EngLish) 02/87 066/87 Peri-Urban Woodfuel Development (Bnglish) 10/87 076/87 Power Master Plan (English - Out of Print) 11/87 - Lesotho Energy Assessmt (aglish) 01/84 4676-LSO Uberia Energ (En glish) 12/84 5279-LBR Recommeded Technical Assistance Projects (English) 06/85 038/85 Power System Efficiency Study (English) 12/87 081/87 Madasar Energy Asssment (English) 01/87 5700-MAG Power System Efficiency Study (English and French) 12/87 075/87 Malawi hErgy A _mmM h3agM) 08/82 3903-MAL Technical Assistance to wrove the Efficiency of Fuelwood Use in the Tobacco Industry (English) 11/83 009/83 Status Report (English) 01/84 013/84 Mali EnVergy As t (English and French) 11/91 8423-MU Islamic Republic of Mauritania Energy A t (Englih and French) 04/85 5224-MAU Household Energy Strategy Study (nish and French) 07/90 123/90 Mauritius Energy A _t (BEglish) 12/81 3510-MAS Status Report (English) 10/83 008/83 Power System Efficiency Audit (English) 05/87 070/87 Bagasse Power Potential (English) 10/87 077/87 Mozambique Energy Ams (English) 01/87 6128-MOZ Household Electricity Utilization Study (English) 03/90 113/90 Niger Energy A _ (French) 05/84 4642-NIDt Statu Report (English and French) 02/86 051/86 Improved Stoves Project (English and French) 12/87 080/87 Household Energy Conservation and Sbstitution (English and French) 01/88 082/88 Nigeria Energy ment lish) 08/83 4440-UNI Rwanda Ener A _t (Eqgii) 06/82 3779-RW Energy A_ t (nglish and French) 07/91 8017-RW Status Report (nglish and Fnch) 05/84 017/84 Improved Charcoal Cookstove Strategy (English and French) 08/86 059/86 -3- Colin" AIvWPy Date Number Rwanda Improved Charcoal Production Techniques (aglih and French) 02/87 065/87 Comeiat of Improved Charcoal Stoves and Carboniation Techniques Mid-Term Progrs Report (English and French) 12/91 141/91 SADCC SADCC Regional Sector: Regional Capacity-Building Program for Energy Surveys and Policy AnDalysis (English) 11/91 - Sao Tome and Principe Energy Asessment (English) 10/85 5803-STP Senegal Energy Ass t (Englih) 07/83 4182-SE Status Report (English and French) 10/84 025/84 lidustl Energy Conservation Study (English) 05/85 037/85 Prpartory Assistance for Donor Meefing (English and French) 04/86 056/86 Urban Household Energy Strategy (English) 02/89 096/89 Seychelles Energy A _t (English) 01/84 4693-SEY Electric Power System Efficiency Study (English) 08/84 021/84 Sierra Leone, Energy Ass t (English) 10/87 6597-SL Somalia Energy Asssment (English) 12/85 5796-SO Sudan Management Assistance to the Ministry of Energy and Miing BEngith) -05/83 003/83 Assnsment (EngLish) 07/83 4511-SU Power System Efficiency Study (English) 06/84 018/84 Status Report (English) 11/84 026/84 Wood Energy/Forestry Feasibility (English - Out of Print) 07/87 073/87 Swazilmd Energy As t (English) 02/87 6262-SW Tanzania Energy A _t (English) 11/84 4969-TA Pei-Urban Woodftels Feasibility Study (English) 08/88 086/88 Tobacco Curing Efficiency Study (English) 05/89 102/89 Remote Sensing and Mapping of Woodlnds (English) 06/90 - Industrial Energy Efficiency Technical Assstance (English - Out of Print) 08/90 122/90 Togo Energy t(English) 06/85 5221-TO Wood Recovery in the Nangbeto Lake (English and French) 04/86 055/86 Power Efficiency lIprovement (English and French) 12/87 078/87 Uganda Energy Asment (English) 07/83 4453-UG Stats Report (English) 08/84 020/84 Institutional Review of the Energy Sector (English) 01/85 029/85 Eergy Efficiency in Tobacco Curing ndustry (English) 02/86 049/86 Iuelwood/Foresy Feasibility Study (English - Out of Print) 03/86 053/86 Power System Efficiency Study (English) 12/88 092/88 Energy Efficiency Improvement in the Brick and Tile Industry (English) 02/89 097/89 Tobacco Curing Pilot Ptoject (English - Out of Print) 03/89 UNDP Terminal Report Zaire Energy A_ EZnglish) 05/86 5837-ZR Zambia Energy A(ss english) 01/83 4110-ZA Status Report (English) 08/85 039/85 Energy Sector Institutiond Review (English) 11/86 060/86 Power Subsector Efficiency Study (English) 02/89 093/88 Energy Strategy Study (English) 02/89 094/88 Urban Housebold Energy Stratgy Study (English) 08/90 121/90 Zimbabwe EyerV A _ssment Mnpish) 06/82 3765-ZIM -4- CoMO Acdt Alte Number Power System Efficiency Study (Engish) 06/83 005183 Statu Report (Englsh) 08/84 019/84 Power Sector Manageent Assistance Project (Engish) 04/85 034/85 Petroleum M gent Aubtance0EghW) 12/89 109/89 Zimbbwe, Power Sector Managemnt Insituio Building (Engish - Out of Print) 09/89 - Charcoal Utliztion Prefeadbility Study (English) 06/90 119/90 Initeated Energy Strategy Evaluation (English) 01/92 8768-ZlM EAff ASIA AND PACJFIC (EAr) Asia Regional Pacific Household and Rural Energy Seminar (English) 11/90 - China County-Level Rurl Energy A Essnfd Engfih) 05/89 101/89 Fuilwood Forestry Preinvestment Sbwdy (English) 12189 105/89 Fji Energy Aussment (EngIh) 06/83 4462-PIJ ndonesia Eneg Azone (ri) 11/81 3543-IND Sti8 Report (English) 09/84 022/84 Power Generation Efficiency Study (Engish) 02/86 050/86 Energy Efficiency in the Brick, Tile and Lime Industies (English) 04/87 067/87 Dieswl Generating Pant Efficiency Study (Englih) 12/88 095/88 Urban Household Energy Stategy Study (English) 02190 107/90 Biomas Gasfier Preinvesatment Study Vols. I & II (English) 12/90 124/90 Malaysia Sabah Power System Efficiency Study OEnglih) 03/87 068/87 Gas Utilbiaimn Study (Englih) 09/91 9645-MA Myanmar Energy And(Einglih) 06/85 5416-BA Papua New Guinea Energy AYe (Ensh) 06/82 3882-PNG -St¢ns Report (En"Sish) 07/83 006/83 Energy Strategy Paper (English - Out of Pint) - - hInsition"lm Review in the Enegy Sector (Engih) 10/84 023/84 Power Taiff Study (Englsh) 10/84 024/84 Solomon Ilands Energy A d (Engli) 06/83 4404-SOL South Pacific Petroleum Transport in the South Pacific (English) 05186 - Thalald E}gy A _mt nglish) 09/8S 5793-TH Rurd Eergy Isues and Options (English - Out of Prnt) 09/85 044/85 Accelerated Disemination of Improved Stoves and Charcoal Kls (English - Out of Print) 09/87 079/87 Northeast Region Village Foresby and Woodfuels Preisvesmnt Study (English) 02/88 083/88 Impct of Lower Oil Ptices (English) 08/88 - Coal Development and Utlization Study (English) 10/89 - Tonga Enery A _ (ngsh) 06/85 5498-TON Vanuatu EneW A_etaW (Engl ) 06/85 5577-VA Westem Samoa EneWy A _t gl ) 06/85 5497-WSO s - COnNry Acd* Date Nws ber SOUTH ASIA (SAS B _Sdsh BE= A . t h 10/82 3873-BD Priodqrbit0P OS183 002/83 Sta Report (Egi8h) 04/84 O1S184 Power System fficemy Study (Englis) 02/85 031/85 Small Scale Uses of Gas Pefeadsbility Study (Englih - Out of Print) 12/88 - India Opportunities for C eciaizaticn of Nonconventional Energ System (Eglh) 11/88 091/88 Mabarashtz Bags.. Energ Efficiency Project OOglih) 05191 120/91 Mini-Hydro Devdlopment an lrtion Dams and Can Drops Vole. I, II and m (Engih) 07/91 139/91 Neal Er A_y lis) 08/83 4474-NEP Stam RqwW Oi oli/hs 01/8S 028/84 Pakistan oehold Enerhy AEn sh - Out of Print) os/88 - of Photovoltaic Programs, Applicaton, and Madets ;English) 10/89 103/89 SriLTanka n A mt I) 05/82 3792-CE Power System Low Reductoa Study (Engis) 07/83 007/83 Sttu Report (English) 01/84 010/84 Iadusri Enetg Cservion Study (EnsIh) 03/86 054/86 EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA ECCA) Portqul EneW Aus#ras O&WH) 04/84 4824-PO Tuiey Enea AasBt (En") 03/83 3877-TU MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AUICA (MNA) Morocco E=V AsoanDo[Eno& adFnch) 03/84 4157-MOR Sh"dx RepKut EQgsh&nd Fnxh) 01/86 048/86 Syria Energy AsDnm (SU6) 05/86 5822-SYPR Electric Power Efficieny Study (Englsh) 09/88 089/88 Energ Efficiecy ImfoNemt in th Cemnt Secto (English) 04/89 099/89 E=ney Eficincy Improvement in dth Feaihr SectorEnglsh) 06/90 115/90 Tunisia Fuel Substi ion (Engsh and Frenh) 03/90 - Power Efficinq Study (Englih and French) 02/92 136/91 Yemen EeD Ana QgH) 12184 4892-YAR Eny Invedast Priorities (Eglish - Out of Prit) 02V87 6376-YAR Household Enrgy Straegy Study Pas I (Englsh) 03/91 126/91 LATIN AMEIUCA AND T(E C AC) JAC Regioa Regioa Seminar on Electri Power System oIs Reduction in tbe Ca 'Mm (En") 07/189 - Bolvia E04 h83u ) W93 4213-DO Natinal Energy Plan (Enih) 12187 - -6- COeW"h Acfty Date Nwber Boivia Natona Enr Pla (Spanish) 08/91 131/91 La Paz Private Power Technical Assistac (Egi) 11/90 111/90 Natural Gas Distribution. Economics and Reguaton (Eaglish) 03/92 125/92 Prfesbiity Evaluation Rural Electrification and Demand A (Eglish and Spanish) 04/91 129/91 Private Power Generation and Trnmissioa (Engi) 01/92 137/91 Chile En Sector Review (aglish - Out of Print) 08/88 7129-CH Colombia E1/ Strategy Ppe ( ish) 12186 - Costa Rica EnergyAss p ihandS ) 01/84 4655-CR Rec ed Tehnical Assic Proects (nlish) 11/84 027/84 Forest Resdde Utitoal Study (English and Spaish) 02/90 108/90 Dominican Energy As t (English) 05/91 8234-DO Republic Ecuador Einergy Ass_sstuent (SpanM) 12/85 5865-EC Eney Stregy Pha I (Spanish) 07/88 - Ewa StraWgy (E4M) 04/91 - Haiti Ee Ar (Aenglish and French) 06/82 3672-HA Satus Repot ( ish and French) 08/85 041/85 Hondufas EneWry (sswet OEnglish) 08/87 6476-HO Petrolum Supply Management (English) 03/91 128/91 Jamaica EneB AnessoEnt Ish) 04/85 5466-JM Petroleum Procurement, Refining, and Disribution Study OEglish) 11/86 061/86 Energy Efficiency Building Code Phase I (English - Out of Print) 03/88 - Energy Efficiency Standards and Labels Phase I (Eqgish - Out of Print) 03/88 - Managemen Informaton System Phase I (Engish - Out of Print) 03/88 - Chaod Production Project (nglih) 09/88 090/88 FIDCO Sawmill Residues Utilization Study nglish) 09/88 088/88 Mexico mpved Charcoal Production Within Porest Management for the State of Vmacrz (English and Spa ) 08191 138/91 Panama Power System Efficiency Study (English - Out of Pin) 06/83 004/83 PsMMy Elnergy Assessmelnt iS) 10/84 5145-PA Recommended Technical A Projecs (En - Out of Pit) 09/85 - Stat Report (Eglish and Spaish) 09/85 043/85 Pelu EheW A ngi) 01/84 4677-PE Status Repott (English - Out of Ptint) 08/85 040185 Proposal for a Stove Diseminaton Program in te Siena (Engish. sad Spanih) 02/87 064/87 Ebxegy StnXl (Sposh) 12/90 - Saint Lucia ly A _t MnSH) 09/84 5111-SLU St. Vincent and the G dines E A _ ih) 09/84 5103-ST Trinidad and Tobago lV A _t (glish - Cht of Pd¢) 12/8S $!%30-TR -.7- Goweliy Aet AM Nwubet GLOBAL erg Ead Us. EfMclemr R _eatch a_d Stmaeg (Elh - Out of PEWt) 11/89 - Guidnes for Uift utom Mnmageen and Meteng (ish ad Sah) 07/91 - Women and Ery-A Reoue Gu 11 lntmeial Nedwo Pices and Eren (English) 04190 A _esuumt of Pesona Computer Models for Ergy Plning in Develoiog Counties (Elish) 10/91 - 043092