City Profiles London, United Kingdom Climate Resilient Cities 47804 A Primer on Reducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters I/ CIty DesCrIptIon London has a population of 7,512,400 within the boundaries of Greater London (2006 data), and the metropolitan area is estimated to have a total population of between 12 and 14 million; it is the most populous municipality in the European Union. Greater London covers an area of 609 square miles (1,579 square kilometers), making it the 37th largest urban area in the world.1 Its primary geographical feature is the Thames, a navigable river that crosses the city from the southwest to the east. Recent studies show London's ecological footprint--an estimate of the city's impact on the planet in terms of resource consumption--to be more than twice the size of Great Britain and about the size of Spain. In 1995, the ecologist Herbert Girardet estimated London's footprint to be 125 times the size of the city itself, which meant that London required an area the size of the entire productive land surface of the UK in order to function in terms of its resource use and disposal of pollutants and waste. In 2000 the City Limits project2 recalculated London's footprint, and in 2003, the Greater London Authority (GLA) Economics published a review of the ecological footprinting methodology (GLA 2003). The Barrier across the Key findings from the GLA study showed that in the year 2000 Londoners: n Consumed 154,407 GWh hours of energy, or 13,276,000 tons of oil equivalent, Thames at Woolwich which is about the same as Greece and Portugal (British Council 2004), and was closed 72 times to produced 41 million tons of CO2; n Consumed 6.9 million tons of food; protect London from tidal flooding between 1983 n Consumed 866 billion liters of water, of which 28 percent was leakage; n Traveled 64 billion passenger kilometers, of which 69 percent was by car; and n Produced over 26 million tons of waste. and 2007. This translated into an ecological footprint for London of 49 million global hectares (gha), which is 42 times its biocapacity and 293 times its geographical area (roughly twice the size of the UK).This represents around 6.6 global hectares per London resi- dent.3 For Londoners to be ecologically sustainable by 2050, a 35 percent reduction of their ecological footprint by 2020 and an 80 percent reduction by 2050 will be needed. The GLA emphasized that while London's ecological footprint is high, the city's CO2 emissions per capita are the lowest in the UK. Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery City Profiles stakeholders from householders to government to major private corporations. The Barrier across the Thames at The Thames is a tidal river, which makes London vul- Woolwich was closed 72 times to protect nerable to flooding (Figure 1).7 The Thames was once a much broader, shallower river with extensive marsh- London from tidal flooding between 1983 lands; at high tide, its shores reached five times their pres- ent width. Since the Victorian era, it has been extensively and 2007. embanked, and many of its London tributaries now flow underground. London is also vulnerable to flooding from the tributaries to the Thames and heavy rainfall, both of II/ prIorIty HazarDs/VulnerabIlItIes which are predicted to increase under climate change. The threat of flooding has increased over time due to a The British Council and the UK Climate Impacts Pro- slow but continuous rise in high water level by the slow gram (UKCIP) London's Warming4 have found that "tilting" of Britain (up in the north and down in the London is potentially exposed to a far greater risk from south) caused by post-glacial rebound. flooding than any other urban area in the UK, primar- ily because of the value of its assets and its geographic In estuaries, flooding can occur as a result of surges location within the floodplain of the Thames River. The caused by the combined effects of atmospheric pressure, draft London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy high tides, and high winds. In addition, sea levels around (GLA 2008) states that London is vulnerable to climate the United Kingdom are about 10 centimeters higher change increasing the risks of floods, drought, and heat than they were in 1900. waves. London, the studies show, is an "urban heat is- land." The center of London, where densely packed It is possible to control the frequency, extent, and size of buildings absorb solar energy during the day and radi- flooding to some degree. In 1974, a decade of work to ate it at night, is several degrees warmer than the green deal with the threat began with the construction of the and rural areas surrounding the city. (City centers create Thames Barrier across the Thames at Woolwich, which heat, too, although this is thought to be less of a factor for protects 150 square kilometers of London that lies below London.) During prolonged heat waves, the difference in the high tide level. The expected level of protection pro- temperature can be as much as up to 9 degrees Celsius. vided by the Barrier will decline after 2030 unless action This will contribute to detrimental effects on air quality is taken, so concepts for its future enlargement or rede- and will increase the amount of electricity used for cool- sign are already being discussed. The Barrier was closed ing in the summer months. 72 times to protect London from tidal flooding between 1983 and 2007 (Figure 2). The Barrier can also be used Water is also a key issue. London is one of the driest capi- to reduce flood risk from high rainfall upstream. In these tal cities in the world5 and climate change could further cases it closes against the tide to keep water levels low in reduce the amount of water available. London's catch- the downstream portion of the Thames so that increased ments and aquifer6 are already "over-licensed" or "over- water volume from upstream has somewhere to go.8 abstracted" and Londoners use more water than the national average (163 versus 150 liters per day) and only III/ aDaptatIon Measures: enHanCIng 19 percent of London households are metered (versus resIlIenCe to ClIMate CHange IMpaCts 26 percent nationally). Awareness of climate change is increasing, but much work needs to be done to quantify London is already beginning to be affected by the im- the potential climate change impacts and adaptation op- pacts of climate change. With more intense rainfall and tions at the local level and to engage decision-makers and rising sea levels, the threat of flooding is now acute. Sum- 2 London, United Kingdom FIgure 1. Flood Levels in England and Wales, 1923 to 2007 Source: UK Environment Agency. 3 City Profiles FIgure 2. Thames Barrier Closures Against Tidal Surges, 1983 to 2007 Source: UK Environment Agency. mertime temperatures are increasing, with impacts on the London Plan. The London Climate Change Partner- transport infrastructure, health, and the local economy. ship wants to ensure that London can learn from good practice in these cities on how to cope with climate risks. The London Climate Change Partnership was estab- lished to coordinate London's response in adapting to The review examined 18 cities to understand how they unavoidable climate change.9 London Climate Change are addressing flooding, high temperatures, and limited Agency Limited is a company wholly owned and con- water resources, the risks that are expected to intensify in trolled by the London Development Agency. London over the coming decades due to climate change. The primary audiences for this report are the members The London Climate Change Partnership is a stakehold- of the London Climate Change Partnership, the Mayor er group coordinated by the Mayor of London, consist- of London, the Greater London Authority, government ing of over 30 key organizations with representation from departments, London Boroughs, developers, utilities and government, climate scientific community, domestic and their regulators, and other policymakers and decision- commercial development, transport, finance, health, en- makers in London and other cities. vironment, and media. In August 2008, the Mayor of London published a draft Some major international cities are already preparing for of the London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy climate change, and some are dealing with climatic con- (GLA 2008) to identify the key vulnerabilities from climate ditions today that London will experience in the com- change and to develop the key actions that the GLA, work- ing decades. In early 2006, the London Climate Change ing with stakeholders, will undertake to protect London. Partnership commissioned a review of how other major This strategy is the first of its kind in a world city. international cities are managing climate risks (LCCP 2006). The review provided the Partnership with inter- The draft strategy proposes several actions and measures national case studies for climate change adaptation and that will be adopted by London, including: informed them on forming climate adaptation planning n urban greening to reduce flood risk and offset the policies for London, especially the Further Alterations to urban heat island,; 4 London, United Kingdom n mapping flood risk of critical infrastructure; and ply is the primary cause of climate change, the Plan sets a n raising awareness raising among Londoners to en- target to enable 25 percent of London's energy supply to be hance their ability to respond to climate impacts. moved off reliance on the grid and onto local decentralized energy systems by 2025, with more than 50 percent of Lon- London is a leading member of the C40 Large Cities don's energy being supplied this way by 2050. Climate Leadership Group, which is working in a part- nership with the Clinton Climate Initiative to reduce The London Energy Strategy,11 released in 2003, set a tar- emissions across the world. The C40 Group, working get to install at least 7,000 (or 15 megawatt peak capacity) with the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and the Great domestic photovoltaic installations, 250 (or 12 megawatt London Authority, held a major conference on adapta- peak capacity) photovoltaic applications on commercial tion in Tokyo for major cities. The conference resulted in and public buildings, and 500 small wind generators asso- 13 joint actions between these cities to work together on ciated with public or private sector buildings. In terms of adaptation. economic development, the London Development Agency projected that a potential sustainable energy sector (gener- The Association of British Insurers (ABI) is funding re- ated as a direct result of deploying technologies as set out searchers and evaluation programs to examine the ef- in the London Energy Strategy) could be worth around fectiveness of the Thames Barriers system. ABI also £3.35 billion and could employ between 5,000 and 7,500 investigated flood risks associated with developments in people. Renewable energy is part of the suite of measures particular areas of the city and found that the damage needed to deliver London's targets, and building integrated expected from flood risk could increase by 5 percent un- renewable energy (primarily solar and wind energy) is a key less sensible flood risk management steps are taken.10 part of the renewable energy measures that will need to be implemented in and around London to achieve its ambi- IV/ MItIgatIon Measures tious targets (LDA 2003). The London Climate Change Action Plan released in Feb- A key component of this work is, in fact, to ensure that new ruary 2007 established the path for turning London into buildings in London also contribute to reducing CO2. This a low-carbon city. The Plan makes it clear that to tackle is done through asking developers to follow an "energy hi- climate change, Londoners do not have to reduce their erarchy" of sustainability (adopting sustainable design and quality of life but do have to change the way they live. The construction measures), efficiency (prioritizing decentral- Plan sets ambitious targets to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) ized energy generation), and finally renewability (looking at emissions--down 20 percent in 2016 and then down to 60 the use of renewable energy). percent in 2025, both relative to 1990 levels. London's renewable energy target aims to generate at least Without more rigorous national and international action, enough power for 100,000 homes by 2010 from sources including introducing widespread carbon pricing, London's ranging from large wind turbines to domestic photovoltaic emissions level in 2025 will only have stabilized at just 30 installations and domestic solar water heating schemes. percent below 1990 levels, half the target. Improving energy efficiency in buildings is a key challenge for London, and a number of innovative housing devel- Data from the London Energy and Greenhouse Gas Inven- opments such as BedZED in Sutton are combining ener- tory (LEGGI) was recently published for 2005. In that year, gy-efficient design with renewable energy production, to London emitted a total of 45,868,290 tons of C02e (equiva- deliver zero-carbon-emission buildings even in attractive lent) of greenhouse gases. Of this, 45,385,360 tons (98.9%) living environments.12 As also stated in the LCCAS, the were CO2. The London Climate Change Action Plan es- Mayor of London has also announced that he will work timated that these emissions would increase 15 percent by with the GLA to reduce London's emissions by 80 percent 2025 if nothing is done to reduce them. Since energy sup- by 2050 (GLA 2008). 5 City Profiles FIgure 3. Central London Congestion Charging Zone Source: Central London Congestion Charging Zone reproduced with kind permission of Transport for London. © TfL. The Climate Change Action Plan has several new pro- fuel poverty. Its role is to bring together a range of sec- grams targeting London's housing. Key areas of focus tors and organizations to deliver energy action more ef- include retrofitting existing buildings (domestic and com- fectively. The London Hydrogen Partnership is working mercial) and behavioral change: to make this technology a reality in the capital and im- n Supply side: promoting decentralized energy (i.e. prove air quality, reduce greenhouse gases, reduce noise, combined heat and power, micro-renewable) and improve energy security, and support London's green investing in the grid mix; economy.13 n Housing energy: promoting thermal efficiency of existing housing stock; implementing the New In its fight against air pollution by motor vehicles, Lon- Housing Strategy, which includes renewable ener- don is recognized for its pioneer program called the Lon- gymix,takeuponenergyefficiencyversions--i.e., don Low Emission Zone (LEZ)14, which is a charging for lighting and appliances--upgrade insulation scheme designed to discourage the most polluting heavy potential, etc. vehicles from entering London. Vehicles are defined by n Behavioral change: implementing awareness their emissions, and those that exceed predetermined lev- campaigns, smart metering trials, etc. els are charged a fee to enter Greater London. The Low Emission Zone started operating in February 2008 for The London Energy Partnership is another innovative the heaviest trucks. There is a planned phased introduc- and useful program in London's response to the chal- tion of an increasingly stricter regime up to 2012 when lenges of climate change, security of energy supply, and it will be fully operational. The scheme is administered 6 London, United Kingdom by the Transport for London executive agency within the tween New Year's Day and 8 January 2003, high rain- Greater London Authority. Like the congestion charge, fall upstream and high spring tides increased London's the Low Emission Zone is monitored using automatic flood risk. During this period the Barrier was closed a number-plate-reading cameras to record license plate record 14 times. This is double the previous record of numbers. Vehicles entering or moving around the zone 7 consecutive closures during the floods of October are checked against the records of the Driver and Ve- 2000. hicle Licensing Agency to enable traffic enforcement to 9 The London Climate Change Agency has been estab- pursue vehicles that have not paid. This Low Emission lished with the support of the following founders: BP, Zone built on the Congestion Charging scheme that Lafarge, Legal & General, Sir Robert McAlpine, John- London launched in 2001 as part of a wider, compre- son Matthey, and the City of London Corporation. The hensive transport strategy (Figure 3).15 Agency is also being supported by the Rockefeller Broth- ers' Trust, KPMG, Greenpeace, the Climate Group, the notes Carbon Trust, and the Energy Saving Trust. This "City Profile" is part of Climate Resilient Cities: A 10Association of British Insurers. See www.abi.org.uk. PrimeronReducingVulnerabilitiestoDisasters,publishedbythe 11The London Energy Strategy will be superseded by World Bank. The analysis presented here is based on data the GLA Climate Change Mitigation and Energy available at the time of writing. For the latest information Strategy which is currently being developed. The tar- related to the Primer and associated materials, including gets quoted here are to be reviewed. the City Profiles, please visit www.worldbank.org/eap/ 12For details of the BedZED zero-carbon development climatecities. Suggestions for updating these profiles may program,seewww.bioregional.com/programme_proj- be sent to climatecities@worldbank.org. ects/ecohous_prog/bedzed/bedzed_hpg.htm. 1 Data from www.demographia.com/dm-lonarea.htm. 13Further information is also available in LEP 2007. 2 The City Limits report on London Footprint is avail- Skills for a Low Carbon London 2007. See http:// able on line at www.citylimitslondon.com/download. www.lep.org.uk/. See also the London Hydrogen Part- htm. nership - www.london.gov.uk/lhp/. 3 The ecological footprint of London tourists was es- 14For more detail see: www.tfl.gov.uk/roadusers/lez/de- timated by the same study at 2.4 million gha, which fault.aspx. equates to an additional 0.32 gha per Londoner. 15For information on the congestion charging scheme, 4 British Council (2004) and UKCIP: www.ukcip.org. see www.tfl.gov.uk/roadusers/congestioncharging/de- uk/london/london.html. fault.aspx. 5 The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Af- fairs (formerly DETR) commissioned a consortium to references evaluate the impact of climate change on the demand British Council. 2004. "A Briefing on Climate Change for water in England and Wales. The project began and Cities: Briefing Sheet 30." Prepared for the British in June 2000 and produced the final report in Febru- Council by Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Re- ary 2003.The report, "Climate Change and Demand search. London, U.K. for Water," is available at www.sei.se/oxford/ccdew/ GLA [Greater London Authority] Economics. 2003. Lon- index.html. don's Ecological Footprint: A Review. London, U.K. Avail- 6 Thames Water loses 23 percent (609Ml/d) of water able at www.london.gov.uk/mayor/economic_unit/ through leakage. docs/ecological_footprint.pdf. Further comments can 7 Data and information on flooding are from the En- be found at www.london.gov.uk/mayor/sustainable- vironment Agency at the following web site: www. development/susdevcomm_footprint.jsp. environment-agency.gov.uk/yourenv/eff/1190084/ ------. 2008. "The London Climate Change Adapta- natural_forces/flooding/?version=1&lang=_e. tion Strategy." Draft report, August 2008. London, 8 For example, the Environment Agency reports that be- U.K. 7 City Profiles LCCP [London Climate Change Partnership]. 2006. LEP [London Energy Partnership]. 2007. "Skills for a Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons for London. London: Low Carbon London: Summary Report and Recom- Greater London Authority. Available at www.london. mendations on the Skills Gaps in the Energy Efficiency gov.uk/lccp/publications/docs/adapting-climate- and Renewable Energy Sector in London." London: change-london.pdf. Greater London Authority. Available at www.lep.org. LDA [London Development Agency]. 2003. Green Al- uk. chemy/Turning Green to Gold--Powering London's Future: A Study of the Sustainable Energy Sector. London. © 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. 8 London, United Kingdom Sustainable Development East Asia and Pacific Region 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, USA Telephone: 202 473 1000 Facsimile: 202 477-6391 Web Site: www.worldbank.org/eapsd and www.worldbank.org/eapurban 9