Latin America & Caribbean Region 76891 Environment & Water Resources Uncertain Future, Robust Decisions The Case of Climate Change Occasional Paper Series Adaptation in Campeche, Mexico © 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The Environment and Water Resources Occasional Paper Series was developed under the direction of Karin Kemper, Sector Manager for Environment and Water Resources in the Latin America and Caribbean Region (LCSEN) of the World Bank. The publications in this Series were designed and produced by GRC Direct under the supervision of Emilia Battaglini and Rachel Pasternack (LCSEN). A list of the most recent papers is on the back cover of this publication. For electronic copies of all our LAC Environment & Water Resources Occasional Papers please visit our website: www.worldbank.org/lac Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. All images courtesy of Thinkstock/Getty Images and The World Bank Environment and Water Resources LCSEN Occasional Paper Series Foreword The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region has the series is to contribute to the global knowledge a unique mix of qualities and challenges when exchange on innovation in environmental and it comes to the environment. It is exceptionally water resources management and the pursuit of endowed with natural assets, with globally greener and more inclusive growth. The papers significant biodiversity and valuable crops, and seek to bring to a broader public – decision makers, also harbors the world’s greatest carbon sink in development practitioners, academics and other the Amazon. At the same time, however, the region partners - lessons learned from World Bank- registers the highest rates of urbanization in the financed projects, technical assistance and other developing world with pollution, overuse of its water knowledge activities jointly undertaken with our and natural resources and detrimental impacts on partners. The series addresses issues relevant to the the health of people, especially the poor, and the region’s environmental sustainability agenda from environment. water resources management to environmental health, natural resource management, biodiversity Over the past twenty years, the LAC region has conservation, environmental policy, pollution made impressive gains in tackling these issues. management, environmental institutions and It leads the developing world in biodiversity governance, ecosystem services, environmental conservation and natural resource management financing, irrigation and climate change and their and is at the forefront in reducing urban pollution. linkages to development and growth. The World Bank has often been the partner of choice for those countries in the region that have In this particular case, we present to you the case had the initiative to pioneer innovative policies for of climate change adaptation in Campeche, one environmental protection and natural resource of Mexico’s coastal states, with high vulnerability management, strengthen institutions responsible to current and future climate impacts. The paper for environmental management, enhance highlights the concrete results for adaptation environmental sustainability, and introduce new planning that can be achieved by using a approaches to water resources management. Such combination of approaches, notably strategic initiatives include fuel and air quality standards environmental assessment, associated with the in Peru, carbon emission reduction in Mexico, cutting-edge real options theory approach, and payment for ecosystem services in Costa Rica, most importantly, a highly participatory process for participatory and integrated water resources developing and digesting the information. management in Brazil, and new approaches to We hope that this paper, just as the entire series, irrigation management in Mexico. will make a contribution to knowledge sharing In this context, it is our pleasure to introduce the within the LAC Region and globally. Environment & Water Resources Occasional Paper Series, a publication of the Environment and Karin Kemper Water Resources Unit (LCSEN) of the Sustainable Sector Manager, Environment & Water Resources Development Department in the World Bank’s Latin Sustainable Development Department America and the Caribbean Region. The purpose of Latin America and the Caribbean Region Table of Contents Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vi Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii Abstract. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x 1. Introduction and Context. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1 Introduction and Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Background. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Objectives, Methodology, and Focus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.2 Baseline Conditions in the State of Campeche. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1.3 Economic and Institutional Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.4 Climate Change Impacts on the Coasts of Campeche. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Sea Level Rise. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Storms and Hurricanes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Floods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Coastal Erosion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 1.5 Climate Trends in Campeche . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Rainfall. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Temperature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Hurricane Activity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2. Decision Making under Uncertainty and Campeche’s Coastal Zone SEA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2.1 Decisions under an Uncertain Future. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2.2 Climate Risk Matrix Approach. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2.3 Results from Campeche SEA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.4 Main Results and Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 3. Application of Real Options Theory for Campeche. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 3.1 Real Options Theory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 3.2 Implications for Campeche. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Hard Infrastructure: A Sea Wall. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Restoration of Mangroves. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Coastal Zone Management. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 3.3 Assessment of Real Options Approach in Campeche. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 4. Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Boxes Box 3.1 A Simple Example: Option Value of Waiting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Box 3.2 A Detour on Option Values. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Figures Figure 1.1 Location and Municipal Division of Campeche. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Figure 1.2 Natural Protected Areas in the State of Campeche . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Figure 1.3 Worldwide Sea Level Data 1992–2012 as Observed by Satellite. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 iv Figure 1.4 Time Series of Mean Sea Level 1956–1991, Ciudad del Carmen, Campeche. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Figure 1.5 Projected Coastline Configuration of Southeast Coast of Campeche in 2030, 2050, and 2100. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Figure 1.6 Modeled Category 4 and 5 Hurricane Tracks for Present and Warmed Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Figure 1.7 Storm Surges Associated with Hurricanes with Return Periods of 100 and 500 Years (Campeche). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Figure 1.8 Annual Rainfall Intensity for Escárcega (top) and Ciudad de Campeche (bottom). . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Figure 1.9 Maximum Yearly Temperatures for Escárcega (top) and Ciudad de Campeche (bottom). . . . . . . 15 Figure 1.10 Number of Hurricanes per Decade for the Period 1949–2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Tables Table 1.1 Nine Extreme Events in Mexico with Highest Economic Cost in Constant Dollars. . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Table 1.2 Net Coastline Displacement in Eight Locations along Campeche’s Coastline. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Table 2.1 Key to Building the Impacts Risk Matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Table 2.2 Summary of Impacts Risk Matrix for Coastal Ecosystem, Biodiversity, and Tourism Dimension . 21 Table 2.3 Summary of Impacts Risk Matrix for Urban Settlement and Coastal Infrastructure Dimension. . 22 Table 2.4 Key to Building the Adaptation Matrix. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Table 2.5 Summary of Adaptation Matrix for Coastal Ecosystem, Biodiversity, and Tourism Dimension. . . 25 Table 2.6 Summary of Adaptation Matrix for Urban Settlement and Coastal Infrastructure Dimension . . . 26 v Acronyms and Abbreviations CIMARES: Interministerial Commission for Sustainable Management of Seas and Coasts (Comisión Inter- secretarial para el Manejo Sustentable de Mares y Costas) CONABIO: National Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity (Comisión Nacional para el Cono- cimiento de la Biodiversidad) CONAGUA: National Water Commission (Comisión Nacional del Agua) DCF: discounted cash flow GDP: gross domestic product ICZM: integrated coastal zone management IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NPV: Net Present Value PEMEX: Petróleos Mexicanos SEA: Strategic Environmental Assessment SMAAS: Environment and Sustainable Development Secretariat (Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Aprove- chamiento Sustentable) vi Uncertain Future, Robust Decisions The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche, Mexico Daniel Mira- Salama, World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Environmental and Socially Sustainable Development Department Richard Damania, World Bank, Africa Region, Sustainable Development Department Adrián Pedrozo- Acuna, Universidad de Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ingeniería Pasquale Scandizzo, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Center for International Studies on Economics and Development Acknowledgements This report is the product of a broad and extensive The authors also want to acknowledge the support collaborative effort between the World Bank and received from the Universidad Autónoma de the Government of Campeche, under the overall Campeche, and specially Guillermo Villalobos, leadership of Campeche’s Secretaría de Medio Director of EPOMEX; Alberto Rojas, Advisor; David Ambiente y Aprovechamiento Sustentable, SMAAS. George, National Climate Change Adaptation Special gratitude is extended to the Secretary Research Facility of Griffith University; Rita Cestti, of SMAAS, Evelia Arriaga, and her team, for their Senior Rural Development Specialist at the World leading role on the development of this work. Bank; and Paola Posas, SEA Expert. viii Abstract This document grapples with a problem that is fun- approach, proved useful in reaching consensus damental to addressing climate change risks in among different stakeholders, facilitating the de- areas of high vulnerability, which is how to reach cision-making process by factoring uncertainty in consensus and take decisions under an uncertain ways that are comprehensive to non-experts. As a future. The state of Campeche in Mexico, is used result, a range of adaptation options were identi- as an example. With its long coastline, Campeche fied and prioritized for the state. is highly vulnerable to current and projected future Second, the real options theory approach was ap- climate threats. plied to selected adaptation alternatives, and the Two different approaches to decision making un- benefits of waiting were compared with the costs der uncertainty have been explored. First a strate- of delaying decisions. In general, options that were gic environmental assessment (SEA) approach was modular and flexible were found to lead to more used to systematically analyze expected impacts, robust and prudent adaptation measures. identify and agree on a menu of adaptation meas- The specific results obtained in this work are less ures, and prioritize those measures, using a power- important than the overall tenor and spirit of the ful combination of solid scientific knowledge and messages from these exercises. Most importantly local expertise. both exercises – SEA and real options – demon- The review of expected impacts points to the Los strated that involved actors are ultimately consist- Petenes Biosphere Reserve and Ciudad del Car- ent and cautious in their approach to climate risks. men (home to oil industry infrastructure and a An important lesson to emerge from this work is populated city) as the most vulnerable areas in the that there is merit in adopting multiple approaches state. Recent studies indicate that over 58 percent to tackle problems where uncertainty looms large. of the state’s population is vulnerable to a 1 meter When the answers converge there is likely to be sea level rise. Both modeling efforts and historical greater confidence in the outcomes. A second and trends point toward an increase in average tem- perhaps more important lesson is the need to peratures, rainfall, and frequency of hurricanes. identify all costs – including the options foregone For the prioritization of adaptation measures, a by embarking on an irreversible course of actions step-by-step methodology, the climate risk matrix (such as with long-lived infrastructure). x 1. Introduction and Context protected area, and in general any other investment 1.1 Introduction and Objectives or action that is subject to weather interactions. Background The changing climate has made the job of engineers, The past has traditionally been used as proxy for economists, and many other professionals more the future. The Latin phrase ceteris paribus can be difficult and unpredictable. Past historical weather translated as “all other things being equal or held conditions are no longer an adequate proxy for constant,� and has long been used by professionals future ones, and thus form an unreliable basis for of diverse disciplines when elaborating new theories decisions pertaining to the future. Technically we are or projections based on previous experience. This is dealing with a phenomenon that is nonstationary, the foundational concept underpinning one typical and under nonstationarity many of the standard way of solving problems of science and economics: and familiar statistical tests and techniques no look to the past, learn from it, generate enough longer apply – so decision making becomes all history from the variables of concern, suppose that the more complex. In particular, nonstationarity they will be held constant in the future, and then implies that averages change, as do variances, so design and execute changes. With enough data, the past cannot guide the future. It is well known for example, one could determine the average that temperatures are rising globally, precipitation time elapsed from one natural climate event to the patterns are changing, extreme events such as next one: for instance, a 30-year storm would be droughts and heavy downpours seem to be more a very unusual event whose intensity was usually intense and defined over time, and even sea level, experienced every 30 years. With this value in sea salinity, and ocean currents are becoming more mind, an expert might then conduct a cost-benefit variable. Unfortunately, although global circulation analysis of the storm drainage system, defining its models consistently project global temperature dimensions, extension, and performance. Similar increase and general tendencies can be simulated steps would likewise be followed for building a dam with some level of accuracy, the ability to predict (locations, dimensions, and thickness calibrated to climatic changes with high levels of precision and the historical amount of rain for the area), a road spatial definition remains limited. This becomes a (distance to the seashore depending on the height primary challenge: neither the extent nor the timing and periodicity of the most intense waves), an air- of these changes is known with certainty, so that conditioning system for a building or a metro based decisions must be made based on incomplete and on temperature records, a management plan for a imperfect knowledge that is rapidly evolving. The option of delaying decisions until all the uncertainty 1 The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche is resolved is also infeasible and comes at a high Objectives, Methodology, and Focus cost when decisions need to be made now – for Considering the ever-increasing impacts of global instance for planning urban spaces, and on the climate change on Campeche’s extended coastlines, engineering properties and location of long-lived the Campeche Environment and Sustainable assets. Development Secretariat (Secretaría de Medio Coastal areas are especially vulnerable to climate Ambiente y Aprovechamiento Sustentable, SMAAS) change. According to the Fourth Assessment and the World Bank initiated a learning program Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate that aimed at integrating climate change into the Change (IPCC), mean sea level rose at an average decision-making process of critical state actors. of 3.1 ± 0.7 millimeters per year over the period The specific objectives of this collaboration, whose 1993–2003. This rise is partially attributed to results are captured in this report, were: to better thermal expansion of the ocean and loss of land- understand the uncertainties that current climate based glaciers and icecaps. More recent scientific change predictions encompass, and estimate likely analysis indicates that the projected sea level future impacts along the state coastline, using the rise may exceed 1 meter and possibly reach 2 best available scientific knowledge; to test the meters during this century. There is also growing feasibility of using alternative and complementary consensus regarding the likelihood of increased approaches to reach consensus and factor weather extremes, including storm surges in the trade-offs and uncertainty into the decision North Atlantic and in the Caribbean Sea. This fact is making process; and finally, to implement those especially significant as globally, human settlements approaches in order to agree on a list of prioritized are heavily concentrated in or near coastal zones, actions to address current and future expected often with important assets, infrastructure, and climate change impacts in the state. The result of urban centers located in vulnerable areas. The this effort would allow for inputs to strategic plans threat of sea level rise to submerge or significantly under consideration by decision makers. alter low-lying areas might impair their ability to To achieve those objectives, an approach that play a crucial role worldwide in coastal protection drew on the strategic environmental assessment and buffering against storms. These low-lying areas (SEA) methodology was combined with a recently also represent critical habitats for migratory birds, developed methodology for climate-related sea turtles, amphibians, and mangroves; provide decision making successfully utilized by the substrates for coral reefs and associated fisheries; Australian government through their Greenhouse and are important tourist attractions. Office. Adapted to the Campeche context, this has The Gulf of Mexico has been vulnerable to proven effective for identifying and reconciling these effects in the recent past. Specifically, diverse views, building consensus, and devising an the state of Campeche, in the Mexican Yucatán action plan to adapt for some of climate change’s Peninsula, has 404 kilometers of coastline and expected future impacts in the state. This approach is currently suffering the effects of sea level rise builds on an exercise recently conducted in the and higher storm surges. The state has important state of Michoacán, Mexico, where impacts of infrastructure along the coastline, such as the climate change on the water and rain-fed agriculture Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) refinery close to sectors were analyzed (Damania et al. 2010). The Ciudad del Carmen, a coastal city that is one of the novelty of this work is in applying the methodology largest in the state. to a much wider set of sectors in the coastal zones 2 in Campeche, with a greater variety of actors and gas production (Sánchez-Salazar and Martínez interests, together with larger uncertainties. The Galicia 2000) – are located along the coastline, exercise was complemented with an assessment together with the main roads and communication of decision making under uncertainty using the infrastructure. options value approach, a relatively new approach borrowed from the world of finance, where the 1.2 Baseline Conditions in the State of technique was developed to inform the process of decision making ahead of all relevant information Campeche being known. The state of Campeche is one of the three Mexican states located on the Yucatán Peninsula in the The agreed focus of the work was natural habitats southeastern part of Mexico (figure 1.1.a). Its and coastal zones. This decision was taken based 57,924 square kilometers represents 3 percent on several facts: (a) the state of Campeche has of the country’s total. Administratively, the state an extensive coastline that provides exceptional of Campeche is divided into 11 municipalities, natural richness, containing several key natural and the capital city is San Francisco de Campeche habitats and forested areas that are home to (figure 1.1.b). The state has a population of around critical ecosystems and species, including eight 820,000 inhabitants, mostly concentrated in the natural protected areas; (b) most significant capital city and in Ciudad del Carmen. inhabited centers of the state are located in or near the coast, with over 70 percent of the population The intertropical location of the state, together with residing in four coastal municipalities; (c) most of its relatively low altitudes and flat terrain, result the relevant assets of the state – including the oil in high temperatures year round, with an average industry, which represents 96.4 percent of national annual temperature along the coastline of 28ºC, oil production and 95.8 percent of national and average annual rainfall ranging from 800 Figure 1.1 Location and Municipal Division of Campeche 1.1.a State of Campeche within Mexico 1.1.b Municipalities of Campeche 3 The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche millimeters in the north and northwest to 2,000 Figure 1.2 Natural Protected Areas in the State of millimeters in the southeast. Campeche The state of Campeche is rich in biodiversity and hosts approximately 48 percent (938 species) of all plant species found on the Yucatán Peninsula (Sosa et al. 1985). It is the 16th most biodiverse Mexican state for terrestrial vertebrates (Flores- Villela and Pérez 1988), including 15 endangered species. The state’s eight natural protected areas have a combined area of 22,900 square kilometers and cover some 40 percent of the state (figure 1.2). Several of those protected areas deserve special mention, such as the commercially and ecologically important Laguna de Términos (706,148 hectares, established in 1994), which is the largest estuary in Mexico. Two biosphere reserves play critical roles in providing habitat for flagship species such as the jaguar: Calakmul Biosphere Reserve (723,185 Source: Bezaury-Creel, Ochoa Ochoa, and Torres 2007. hectares, around 14 percent of the state), which contains about 12 percent of the subperennial Laguna de Términos provides ecological services jungles of Mexico; and Los Petenes Biosphere critical to the well-being of the state’s inhabitants Reserve (282,858 hectares), which features and Ciudad del Carmen is of strategic importance tropical dry forest, wetlands, and mangroves. It to the state’s oil industry. is speculated that Campeche has perhaps the According to studies done by the SMAAS, highest concentration of jaguars in the world. observations have shown accelerated decline In terms of hydrography, the state can be divided in vegetation cover due to expanding productive into seven different hydrological basins, and boasts activities such as agriculture. From 1997 to 2002, 2,200 square kilometers of coastal lagoons. These the land area devoted to agriculture and cattle lagoon and fluvial systems abound and tend to increased to 29,540 hectares (almost 88 percent run in a south-southwest axis. Consequently, the of which is used for agricultural purposes). Other southwestern region of the state has a plentiful land use changes in the state are linked to the supply of water due to the rivers running through vigorous industrial expansion and changes in it. Moreover, the topography and inland elevations economic activity that have been occurring over cause water to drain toward the southwest during the last several decades. rain episodes. Therefore, the risk of floods is These land use changes, combined with observed especially high when there are storm systems changes in rain patterns and temperature increases, along the coast and heavy rains upstream. These will impose further stresses on the ecosystem. phenomena particularly impact the Laguna de Deeper understanding and analysis of these Términos area and Ciudad del Carmen, where conditions are thus essential to support sound most of the state’s large rivers flow into the sea. decision making and to devise appropriate projects, 4 programs, and policies that will ultimately reduce change are abundant and relatively new. In expected impacts and help maintain prosperity as 2005, an Interministerial Commission on Climate well as the state’s natural heritage, which has both Change was created. This commission prepared national and international significance. and presented the National Strategy on Climate Change in 2007 and the Special Program on 1.3 Economic and Institutional Considerations Climate Change in 2009. In these documents, the federal government defined its policies related to Campeche is composed of 11 municipalities, six climate change, and specifically recognized the of which are coastal. Campeche’s production and vulnerability of coastal zones. It encouraged the share of national gross domestic product (GDP) integrated management of coastal zones as the were formerly derived primarily from agriculture right tool for planning in coastal areas. and livestock. However, during the 1980s, large oil reserves were discovered, and its extraction The National Strategy for the Territorial Planning shifted the composition and level of the state’s GDP of Seas and Coasts, published in 2007, provides (currently 85 percent of the state’s GDP derives the basis for the national coastal management from the hydrocarbon industry). Campeche’s GDP framework. It was followed by the creation in 2008 accounts for 1.2 percent of national GDP, ranked of the Interministerial Commission for Sustainable 30th out of 32 states. Between 1970 and 2006, Management of Seas and Coasts (Comisión Campeche’s average annual GDP growth rate was Intersecretarial para el Manejo Sustentable de 6.2 percent, well above the national average of 3.6 Mares y Costas, CIMARES). Currently, there is percent. Not including hydrocarbons, Campeche’s an ongoing public consultation on the Mexican average GDP growth is 4.6 percent, still above the National Policy for Seas and Coasts. The policy is national average. expected to define the federal government as the coordinator and reference point for sustainable As a federal system Mexico has a sophisticated and sea and coast management. well-developed array of policies and institutions designed to meet the climate challenge with Before the National Policy for Seas and Coasts, responsibilities assigned at the federal, state, Mexico traditionally tackled coastal zone and local levels. Specific policies for both coastal management through sectoral policies and management and climate change are generally regulations. However, the new policy proposes addressed at the federal level. However, a number a holistic view as one of its guiding principles of responsibilities for ecological territorial planning and is expected to have a more multidisciplinary have been transferred from the federal level to the focus. Mexico’s National Development Plan for municipal level. A review conducted for this study 2007–2012 moves further into the integration suggested that policies stand to benefit from an of actions, and has specifically incorporated the even greater degree of articulation and integration need to prepare a national Integrated Coastal Zone between levels of government, taking into account Management Plan that includes climate change that, in some cases, the municipalities still lack considerations. resources and institutional capacity to carry out There are still a multitude of laws and regulations comprehensive planning exercises that properly related to coastal management, including at least incorporate climate change concerns. 39 general and federal laws, together with many National policy instruments related to climate official Mexican standards and international 5 The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche instruments ratified by the Mexican government, coastal zone management concerns. The work in which give authority to at least 12 agencies and Ciudad del Carmen is considered to be pioneering 22 federal public entities (according to CIMARES). within Mexico, and Campeche as a whole has There are also responsibilities granted to other been recognized for being one of the first states levels of government, including the development to develop methodologies for coastal planning, and implementation of regional territorial several of which are being used as references at ecological ordinances and local ordinances, urban the national level. development programs, solid and liquid waste management, and promotion of activities that 1.4 Climate Change Impacts on the Coasts of affect coastal development. However, at the state and municipal levels, institutional frameworks and Campeche capacities have not been as developed as at the Typically, coastal zones are vulnerable to a national scale. number of naturally occurring phenomena such as storm surges, hurricanes, floods, salinization of In the state of Campeche, the management freshwater wells, and other climate-related threats. of marine areas, coastal wetlands, and the Many climate models suggest that the general trend administration of islands, islets, and reefs all fall will be one of deteriorating climatic outcomes, with under federal jurisdiction (other than the Isla del an intensification of those phenomena, though the Carmen, whose administration is constitutionally extent varies depending upon the climate change recognized both at the state level and at the level of scenario under consideration. What are the likely the municipality of Carmen). Land use planning is a on-the-ground impacts that the intensification valuable instrument that can be used to incorporate of those phenomena can generate? How will climate change concerns into state policies, and they modify the ecosystems and economies of Campeche has been one of the leading states in Campeche? Where are some of the state’s most matters of coastal protection and management. In critical vulnerabilities to a changing climate? In 1997, the Laguna de Términos Protected Area was the following section, a review of the cutting-edge established, and it was the first natural protected literature on impacts in the Gulf of Mexico in area to adopt the concept of integrated coastal general and Campeche in particular is provided to zone management planning at the regional level. answer some of these questions. The state was also one of the first to apply, in the late 1990s, ecological territorial planning in its Sea Level Rise coastal zones, through which it sets the rules for coastal management. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its Fourth Assessment Report, estimated Moreover, the Campeche State Development Plan an increase in average sea level of up to requires the state to design and implement the approximately 60 centimeters by 2100 as a result State Plan for Climate Change Adaptation and of ocean warming and melting of land-based ice Mitigation, currently being developed with the masses (IPCC 2007). Satellite data (from the Topex/ leadership of the SMAAS. Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2) have confirmed a At the municipal level, it is worth noting that Ciudad clear worldwide trend of sea level rise over the past del Carmen, in its Municipal Development Plan, two decades (figure 1.3), though of course gravity has incorporated climate change and integrated and oceanic topography imply that there are spatial variations around this global average trend. 6 Figure 1.3 Worldwide Sea Level Data 1992–2012 of Mexico, Zavala-Hidalgo et al. (2010) mapped sea as Observed by Satellite level rise for different locations along the coastline. Their results for Ciudad del Carmen in Campeche indicate a clear rise in the mean sea level from 1956 to 1991. The rate of increase in the sea level along the coast was estimated at 3.4 millimeters per year (figure 1.4). Torres Rodríguez et al. (2010) incorporated conditions of sea level rise that took into account results from the Fourth Assessment Report (scenarios A1 and B2) of the IPCC (2007). These correspond to sea level rise of 0.08 meters for Source: NASA Topex/Poseidon satellite data. the year 2030, 0.135 meters for 2050, and 0.33 meters for 2100. Based on these scenarios, Rises in average sea level generate physical impacts projected water levels along the southeast coast of such as the submergence and increased flooding Campeche are illustrated in figure 1.5. of coastal land, and saltwater intrusion into surface waters. It results in longer-term effects as the coast Caetano et al. (2010) went one step further and adjusts to the new conditions, including increased estimated, for a 1-meter sea level rise scenario, erosion and saltwater intrusion into groundwater. a total flooded area of 3,643 square kilometers, A rise in sea level changes the patterns of natural almost 7 percent of the state (this result ignores drainage of waters from inland into the sea, lagoon effects from hurricanes, tides, or waves). and fluvial regimes, and underground water flows, Carbajal-Domínguez (2010) prepared maps for and in these ways can enlarge the area of land all the states in the Gulf of Mexico showing the prone to flooding. areas that would be affected by sea level rises of Research by Ortiz Pérez and Méndez Linares 0.6 meters, 1 meter, and 2 meters. The novelty of (2000, 2004) indicates that the region of Mexico the work is the integration of information related most vulnerable to sea level rise is located in the to population in the coastal zone. The results Grijalva-Usumacinta delta, which includes an area obtained for the state of Campeche show that between the states of Tabasco and Campeche. a 1-meter sea level rise would impact around Within the state of Campeche, the Laguna de 440,000 inhabitants, which represent over 58 Términos area appears to be the most vulnerable percent of the state population. Vulnerability is to sea level rise. Notably, this is the region in mainly concentrated in Ciudad del Carmen (where which Ciudad del Carmen is located, a city of great over 154,000 inhabitants would be impacted), and economic value and strategic importance for the the capital city San Francisco de Campeche (with country as it is where PEMEX has concentrated over 210,000 inhabitants impacted). most of its industrial installations to store the It has to be noted that coastal impacts can also extracted oil from the Gulf of Mexico. It is also the take place as a result of relative or local sea level second largest city in the state. rise (for example from geological processes such Using data from the National Mareographic Service as subsidence). For example, relative sea level is 7 The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche Figure 1.4 Time Series of Mean Sea Level 1956–1991, Ciudad del Carmen, Campeche Source: modified from Zavala-Hidalgo et al. 2010. presently falling where land is rising, such as in the certain locations. This will improve the preparation northern Baltic and Hudson Bay. Conversely, relative of action plans to adapt to the impacts of sea level sea level is rising more rapidly than climate-induced rise. trends on subsiding coasts. In many regions, The other significant protected area in the state, human activities (for example water extraction) are Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve, located on the exacerbating subsidence on susceptible coasts, northern part of the coastal zone of Campeche, including most river deltas. These and other has also been found to be highly vulnerable to sea human-induced changes in coastal areas (such level rise. This region contains coastal wetland as coastal defenses, destruction of wetlands, port ecosystems, such as salt marshes and mangroves, and harbor works, and reduced sediment supply which are particularly fragile. due to dams) may accelerate and increase sea level rise in a particular location over and above The IPCC (2007) noted the importance of wetlands what could be expected from climate-induced sea in providing habitat for many species, playing a level rise (Nicholls et al. 2008; Nicholls, Woodroffe, key role in nutrient uptake, serving as the basis and Burkett 2009). for many communities’ economic livelihoods, providing recreational opportunities, and protecting In Campeche’s coastal zone, there is a need for an local areas from flooding. As the sea level rises, enhanced coastal monitoring program and the use it is expected that the outer boundary of these of high-resolution tools with the aim of improving wetlands will erode, and new wetlands will form knowledge of sea level rise and the specific risks at 8 Figure 1.5 Projected Coastline Configuration of Southeast Coast of Campeche in 2030, 2050, and 2100 Source: Torres Rodríguez et al. 2010. Note: Projected coastline configurations for 2030, 2050, and 2100 are for sea level rise scenarios reported in the Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007) corresponding to +0.08 meters, +0.135 meters, and +0.33 meters. inland as previously dry areas are flooded by the kilometers with water penetration of 19 kilometers higher water levels. The amount of newly created inland. wetlands, however, could cover a much smaller In summary, there is broad consensus that sea area than was occupied by the lost wetlands level rise remains a major problem and threat for – especially in developed areas protected with the state, with the highest vulnerabilities at Ciudad bulkheads, dikes, and other structures that keep del Carmen and Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve. new wetlands from forming inland. The horizontal Such information becomes important and needs migration space available to these ecosystems to be available when decision makers prepare thus becomes critical, and is historically limited by their management plans for the location of critical human development and tourism infrastructure. infrastructure such as roads or power stations. For the Los Petenes zone, the area affected by a Especially important is the need to prevent 1-meter sea level rise was determined to be 520 future developments from occurring in areas of square kilometers with water penetration of 15 high vulnerability and assuring conservation of kilometers inland. In the case of a 2-meter sea mangroves as a natural buffer. level rise, the affected area would be 720 square 9 The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche Figure 1.6 Modeled Category 4 and 5 Hurricane al. 2010, figure 1.6). Vecchi and Knutson (2008) Tracks for Present and Warmed Climate also consider it likely that climate warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and to have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes, with both high rainfall events and higher intensity storms. This pattern of increased storms and hurricanes suggests that annual damage costs are set to rise further in a region where hurricanes are already a regular phenomenon. As an example, table 1.1 shows some estimates of impacts caused by the nine most damaging extreme events in Mexico. Floods Coastal flooding can occur for a number of reasons, including the impact of tsunamis, heavy rainfall, extraordinary river discharges, and storm surges (Smith and Ward 1998; Parker 2000). As Source: Bender et al. 2010. Campeche’s population centers as well as other Note: Tracks show simulated Atlantic category 4 and 5 critical infrastructure (such as oil extraction and hurricanes for the present climate and for a warmer climate refinery) are highly concentrated in coastal areas, projected for the late 21st century. The hurricanes were simulated using higher-resolution atmospheric models with floods in the state have extreme consequences. large-scale conditions taken from an ensemble of 18 global Storm surges are generated by the presence of climate models. tropical storms of typical occurrence in the Gulf Storms and Hurricanes of Mexico. The low barometric pressure during a storm, combined with the wind intensity, work Besides sea level rise, climate change is also together to produce a temporary rise in sea level known to affect storm and hurricane frequency and that has the ability to flood the low-lying areas on intensity. Observed records of Atlantic hurricane the coast. These events are usually associated with activity (for example Emanuel 2007) show a strong extraordinary winds, hurricanes, and high waves, correlation, on multiyear time scales, between local implying greater potential damage than would be tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the caused by the surge only (Nicholls 2004). power dissipation index (a measure that combines storm intensity, duration, and frequency). Other When the storm surge coincides with rising studies have suggested similar intensification tides, a high rise in levels of the sea surface can findings that are correlated with warmer sea surface occur temporarily, causing major flooding. Flood temperatures. Numerical results derived from magnitude is controlled in part by the path of the an 18-model average climate change projection storm and its intensity and configuration related to pointed toward an increase in the frequency and the seabed and the coastline. intensity of category 4–5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Floods resulting from storm surges on the coast basin by the end of the 21st century (Bender et can have a wide range of impacts, from material 10 Table 1.1 Nine Extreme Events in Mexico with Highest Economic Cost in Constant Dollars Disaster Damage (million US$) Floods in Tabasco and Chiapas (2007) 3,000 Hurricane Wilma (2005) 1,782 Hurricane Gilberto (1988) 567 Hurricane Isidore (2002) 308 Hurricane Emily (2005) 302 Hurricane Stan (2005) 228 Hurricane Kenna (2002) 176 Hurricane Juliette (2001) 90 Hurricane Pauline (1997) 62 Source: Bitran 2001, and Comisión de Recursos Hídricos 2008. damage, stress to the population, public health In a recent study, Durán Valdez (2011) constructed issues, and, in some cases, fatalities. In the a model based on all hurricane trajectories that absence of protective infrastructure, floods created had an impact on Mexico’s Atlantic coast between by storm surges typically decrease in the order of 1949 and 2009. The data suggest that Campeche 0.2 to 0.4 meters per kilometer inland. Therefore, has the highest exposure to storm surges. For a an intense storm surge (about 6 meters) impacting 500-year return period event, the water could reach on a low-lying area (1–2 meters above sea level) up to 3.8 meters above current sea level, with a can reach up to 11–16 kilometers inland (Pielke direct impact on some of the state’s low-lying areas and Pielke 1997). (figure 1.7). Recent studies have attempted to evaluate the storm Coastal Erosion surge generated by tropical cyclones in Campeche (Posada-Vanegas et al. 2010; Posada-Vanegas et The process of coastal erosion is the result of a al. 2011). The study conducted by Posada Vanegas combination of natural and anthropogenic factors and Vega Serratos (2010) concludes that, for that occur at different spatial and temporal scales. strong wind events with a return period of 100 With regard to natural factors, these are mainly years under two different sea level rise scenarios the impact of storms on the coast, rip and littoral (actual sea level and a 0.59-meter rise), the most currents, and the relative increase in the average vulnerable areas are Los Petenes and the central sea level. Some of the main anthropogenic part of the capital city San Francisco de Campeche influences are determined by the destruction (these are zones that were reclaimed from the sea of dunes and the alteration of natural flow of in the 1950s and 1960s). sediments along the coast, through the placement 11 The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche Figure 1.7 Storm Surges Associated with Hurricanes with Return Periods of 100 and 500 Years (Campeche) Source: Durán Valdez 2011. of structures, such as breakwaters, perpendicular impacts, interactions between different coastal to the shoreline. systems, and other factors). More often than not, it is these site-specific factors that determine the The natural response of coastal systems to sea coastal response, rather than a global change in level rise is to migrate landward, through erosion sea level or a regional change in wave patterns. of the lower part of the near-shore profile and Therefore any forecast of coastal response due to deposition on the upper part. This process is climate change will have low predictive confidence, accompanied by the onshore transport of sediment. unless a detailed study of the area is conducted Coastal retreat rates are expected to increase as and long-term coastal change data are available. sea level continues to rise and storms increase in intensity and number. Human activities, such The only study on coastal erosion found for as land reclamation, the building of hard coastal Campeche was conducted by Torres Rodríguez et defense infrastructure, and the construction of al. (2010). The rate of coastal erosion for the period jetties and marinas significantly impair the ability of 1974–2008 was determined from a combination of coastal systems to respond naturally to changes by aerial photographs, topographic maps, and satellite restricting the free movement of coastal sediments. images of various resolutions and data collected from seven strategic coastal locations. According Coastal response to sea level rise, however, is very to their results (table 1.2), virtually all the littoral much determined by site-specific factors (geology, (near-shore) zone of the region is subject to intense wave or tide conditions, sediment transport, human erosion processes. 12 Table 1.2 Coastline Erosion in Seven Locations along Campeche’s Coastline Duration of Study Coastline Erosion Erosion Rate Location (years) (m) (m/year) Punta la Disciplina 34 581.9 17.1 Playa Norte 31 8.1 0.3 Club de Playa 33 171 5.2 Isla Aguada 31 5.7 0.2 Sabancuy 31 211.2 6.8 Punta de Xen 28 124.6 4.4 Champotón 32 77.2 2.4 Source: Torres Rodríguez et al. 2010. These investigations by Torres Rodríguez et al., together with others conducted by Márquez et 1.5 Climate Trends in Campeche al. (2008), are a first effort to estimate erosion The previous sections have summarized the rates in Campeche. However, there are plenty of most recent available information on expected uncertainties related to their results, and more climate change effects and impacts in the state information is needed to understand the local of Campeche. Some of these results are based contribution of tectonic uplift or subsidence in on outcomes from general circulation models. order to determine the vulnerability of existing In order to establish higher levels of confidence infrastructure. As a recommendation, more and specificity, it was decided that an analysis of specific data should be collected from a dedicated climatic data for Campeche and assessment of monitoring program of Campeche’s beaches. historical trends and records would be undertaken. Coast and beach profile monitoring is especially In order to perform the trend analysis, the historical important for the state of Campeche as it is home behavior of selected variables (temperature, for a significant population of marine turtles. Out of rainfall, hurricane activity) was observed, and the the eight marine turtles worldwide, seven of them results extrapolated into the future considering a arrive at Mexican coasts to nest, and three of those fixed variability rate. A robust trend analysis requires (all endangered) nest on Campeche’s beaches the existence of adequate weather records for long (IUCN 2001). Expected rise in sea level can cause periods, at least 20 years or more. The database accelerated beach erosion and therefore lead to for hydrometeorological stations of the National turtle habitat degradation and an effective loss Water Commission (Comisión Nacional del Agua, of coastal areas where they lay their eggs and CONAGUA) was consulted, and the Campeche and disperse their brood after hatching (Márquez and Escárcega stations were selected as they had over Jiménez 2010). 60 years of continuous records upon which to draw. 13 The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche There are some shortcomings when using this Figure 1.8 Annual Rainfall Intensity for Escárcega approach: a trend analysis assumes that past linear (top) and Ciudad de Campeche (bottom) trends will not change in the near future; only mean values are examined; and the use of current trends may be misleading if there are emerging parameters that gain relevance in the immediate future. On the other hand, trend analysis remains a powerful tool when communicating with nonspecialist audiences. For the case of Campeche, this analysis reinforced the variability and tendencies described through the use of simulation models. The combination of trend and modeling has shown a powerful way to gain and transmit confidence to wide audiences about changes expected in the future, and constituted the basis for the discussion of adaptation options and prioritization of activities among decision makers and other critical actors of the state. Source: Based on data from CONAGUA hydrometric stations. Rainfall Temperature The maximum recorded annual results for A brief historical analysis of the annual maximum precipitation intensity are presented in figure temperature recorded in the state of Campeche 1.8. The two panels show a trend of significant has been made, using CONAGUA hydrometric increase in the intensity of rainfall recorded for station data. The maximum recorded annual the state. Increase in rainfall intensity leads to temperatures for Escárcega and Campeche are increased runoff and earlier river peak flows. presented in figure 1.9. Although it is difficult to tell Correspondingly, flood risks are likely to increase in from the figure, these historical records indicate areas vulnerable to flooding, such as floodplains, an upward trend, with a lower increasing rate than swamps, and river deltas. Increased precipitation that observed for precipitation. These data were episodes inland, combined with storm surges and analyzed and show an estimated linear increase sea level rise off the coast, represent a significant in temperature for Campeche of 0.023°C per year risk for Campeche. The oscillation observed in the and for Escárcega of 0.015°C per year. These data series indicates natural climate variability temperature rise trends for the state of Campeche associated with the incidence of atmospheric are consistent with data published by the Fourth phenomena such as El Niño. Assessment Report for North America.1 1 Observations from all continents and most oceans pinpoint temperature increase as an influential variable affecting natural systems. The warming of the climate is unequivocal, as verified through observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperature, widespread melting of glaciers, and rising global average sea level. According to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007, during the period 1995–2006, 11 years are among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). The 100-year linear trend (1906–2005), estimated at +0.74°C (between 0.56°C and 0.92°C), is greater than the corresponding trend of +0.6°C during 1901–2000 (between 0.4°C and 0.8ºC) listed in the Third Assessment Report. This temperature increase is widespread over the globe and is greater at higher northern latitudes. 14 Figure 1.9 Maximum Yearly Temperatures for Figure 1.10 Number of Hurricanes per Decade for Escárcega (top) and Ciudad de Campeche (bottom) the Period 1949–2008 12 10 Number of hurricanes 8 6 4 2 0 1949-1958 1959-1968 1969-1978 1979-1988 1989-1998 1999-2008 Year Source: Based on data obtained from UNISYS Weather for the state of Campeche. Source: Based on data from CONAGUA hydrometric stations. Hurricane Activity There is consensus about the difficulty in identifying long-term trends in major hurricane activity (particularly before 1970). Figure 1.10 shows an analysis of the number of hurricanes impacting Campeche coasts in the last 60 years. Based on these historical records, a growing trend can be observed, which serves as evidence of an increase in hurricane activity along Campeche’s coasts. This confirms what has been predicted through modeling techniques. Bender et al. (2010) predict that the number and intensity of hurricanes entering the Gulf of Mexico this century is increasing. 15 2. Decision Making under Uncertainty and Campeche’s Coastal Zone SEA uninterrupted linear process resulting in rational 2.1 Decisions Under an Uncertain Future solutions. Under this view, there are five steps in As shown in previous sections, there are a number the decision-making process: identifying a problem of projections and estimates of potential impacts of that requires a decision; gathering information climate change along Campeche’s coastal zones. and materials to solve the problem; generating Once technical knowledge has been gathered, the potential solutions; selecting the best solution; and critical step becomes to translate the information implementing it. This process assumes that the into plans, actions, and decisions. These decisions decision maker has adequate time to gather all have to be taken by policy makers and other actors the information, reflect on all the alternatives, and not necessarily acquainted with climate change reach a rational solution. scientific jargon, and have to be nuanced together Yet, in practice, other factors come into play with other factors and considerations. The main that influence decision making and make it less contribution of this work is the emphasis on how straightforward. Some of these factors are time to bridge this gap, and provide relevant decision pressure, incomplete information, uncertainties, makers with tools and information needed to act risk tolerance, linkages to future choices, and given the uncertainty and unknowns. cognitive biases.2 Under these circumstances, Traditionally, decisions are seen as arising from an the time pressure and imperfect information with 2 These biases include illusion of control, status quo bias, bandwagon effect, and déformation professionelle, which means looking at things only according to the conventions of one’s profession and forgetting wider points of view. 17 The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche which decision makers are faced cause them to settle on workable rather than best solutions. 2.2 Climate Risk Matrix Approach SEA is a useful, widely applied tool to identify and In more complex situations, where there is a develop climate change mitigation and adaptation combination of a high number of stakeholders programs, policies, and projects. It allows climate involved in the processes, ambiguous information, change to be linked to the political and economic and disagreement and conflict about problems priorities of the countries and the decision- and solutions, decision making must be seen making process by bringing different groups of as involving shifting coalitions of interests and people into the discussion, and some definitions temporary alliances of decision makers who can, of SEA explicitly refer to it as a decision-making for the purposes of a decision, sufficiently subsume support process undertaken to ensure that key their differences to establish a compromise environmental and social factors are taken into decision that the majority can agree to. account in the development of policies, plans, and One of the key variables in the decision-making programs (Posas 2011). In this work, a SEA-like process is uncertainty. Uncertainty may exist approach has been followed in order to manage over how to undertake a course of action (means the decision-making process under uncertain uncertainty) or why to undertake a course of scenarios, particularly uncertainty with regard to action (ends uncertainty). Both of these types of environmental or sustainability-related outcomes. uncertainty occur in relation to environmental In November 2010, the Campeche state assessment and climate change. For example, government, through its SMAAS, and the World with climate change, it may be known that Bank initiated a technical cooperation with the temperatures and precipitation will be increasing aim of developing a process to understand the significantly in a given location over a certain time existing vulnerabilities to climate change based horizon, but uncertainty often remains over which on current scientific knowledge, and then identify new challenges to prioritize, what course of action and prioritize, by means of consultative and to take to address the challenges, and over what participatory workshops, the various adaptation time scale. Further, climate projections necessarily options available. SEA was the chosen tool to do involve uncertainty, as assumptions must be this because it was a process of participatory made about patterns of economic development, consensus building with key stakeholders working population growth, consumption, and other factors together for decision making required in the that are not easy to predict over a long time frame. present. The strategic environmental assessment (SEA) The collaboration effort started through the approach and methodology has been successfully identification of impacts, threats, and associated applied in the state of Campeche (as measured uncertainties of different phenomena, as described by a compromise agreement being made by the in chapter 1. The findings were presented in detail majority of stakeholders). As shown in the following to stakeholders in a workshop during which the sections, key climate change threats in the state diverse and knowledgeable participants discussed have been analyzed, and a prioritized number of a shared vision of their state, and further identified concrete adaptation options have been agreed risks in different areas of coastal interest and among key stakeholders. possible adaptation measures using the climate 18 risk matrix method of participatory prioritization. climate scenarios. Most significantly, it establishes The workshop was attended by over 30 persons participatory processes to ensure higher-priority representing academia, business, industry, risks are identified and more effectively managed. different levels of government, the navy, and other This approach also has some limitations, such key sectors. All participants were selected on the as its inability to answer questions of cost- basis of their engagement in the topic. benefit analysis of different options, or to provide The workshop methodology used in Campeche a profound assessment of the combination of followed the climate risk matrix approach, which different climate change factors. It also has was originally developed for the Australian limitations when considering trade-offs. government but has now become the cutting- edge approach for participatory climate change 2.3 Results from Campeche SEA adaptation in both the government and the private The Campeche SEA was focused on climate change sector in Australia (AGO 2006). More recently, the impacts along the coasts of the state. Two different World Bank adapted the approach for application dimensions were chosen: (a) impacts on urban in Bank-supported activities (Damania et al. 2010). settlement and coastal infrastructure; and (b) The approach combines climate science with local impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, and tourism. expertise and priorities, and provides a systematic protocol for simplifying and enumerating climate The urban settlement and coastal infrastructure risks, possible impacts, and responses. It provides dimension was further divided into impacts on water experts, key stakeholders, and decision makers sources, human settlements, communications with a common knowledge platform and allows infrastructure and services, health, and food higher-priority risks to be identified and more security. The ecosystems dimension was subdivided effectively discussed and managed. into impacts on turtle conservation, seagrasses, coral reefs, mangroves, coastal lagoons, coastal The basic steps to implement the climate risk erosion, fisheries, and tourist attractions and matrix approach include (a) determining important tourism infrastructure. climate change factors that are relevant for a specified time period; (b) rating these factors Subsequently, and based on the findings described according to their likelihood of occurrence; (c) in chapter 1, a number of climate parameters were identifying variables that may be impacted by these chosen: rise in sea level, increase in temperature, factors; (d) identifying impacts and opportunities modification of rainfall patterns, intensification of related to these variables; (e) identifying adaptation hurricanes and storm tides, and change in ocean options that reduce climate vulnerability; and current dynamics. (f)  defining adaptation priorities, while examining The type of impact expected for each of the their robustness to changes in climate outcomes. previous dimensions was described. These were This approach, based on the construction of color-coded (low, medium, high, extreme) using matrices, combines the complexities of climate the template shown in table 2.1, and the impacts science with local expertise and priorities. It risk matrices were developed based on participant recognizes the intrinsic uncertainty of climate responses. Tables 2.2 and 2.3 show a summary of projections. It deals with future uncertainties by the main discussions and agreements. testing the robustness of policy actions to different 19 The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche After the impacts risk matrix is built, experts elaborate the adaptation matrix, and tables 2.5 continue to elaborate the adaptation (that is, and 2.6 show a summary of the results obtained. response) matrix, which is the main result of the There are a number of studies aimed at analyzing exercise. In this matrix, adaptation options for impacts and defining adaptation options in coastal each of the described impacts are identified. Each zones, and some of the adaptation options adaptation measure is then classified using a color identified through the matrices are also being coding, which is the result of the expert’s judgment considered elsewhere. For examples of relevant on the intensity of the potential impact that is studies, see reference list entries for McEvoy; being addressed, and the state’s capacity to adapt Woodroffe; and Norman. to that impact. Table 2.4 shows the colors used to Table 2.1 Key to Building the Impacts Risk Matrix Likelihood Negative Consequences Minor Moderate Major Severe Catastrophic Unlikely Low Low Medium Medium Medium Possible Low Medium Medium High High Likely Low Medium High High Extreme Almost certain Low Medium High Extreme Extreme 20 Table 2.2 Summary of Impacts Risk Matrix for Coastal Ecosystem, Biodiversity, and Tourism Dimension Impacts risk Turtle Coastal Tourist Tourism Matrix Conservation Seagrasses Reefs Mangroves Lagoons Coastal Erosion Fisheries Attractions Infrastructure Sea Level Rise Habitat loss Changes in Changes Plant Morphological Increased Changes in Beach Loss Infrastructure Change in Distribution in Growth, Development Changes Erosion Distribution and Mangrove Loss Damage/Loss Nesting Areas (Seasonal) Distribution, alterations Likely Increases Changes in Abundance of Higher Coverage Species Ecotourism Alterations in Changes in Surface Granulometry Reduction Maintenance Recruitment in Species Infrastructure Reduction Costs Processes Abundance Losses of Capture Changes Distance Changing Changes Population in Species in Coastal Dynamics Diversity, Morphology Distribution, Coverage Loss Variation in Modification Coverage Coverage Changes Not Determined Change Changes in Reduction Higher Precipitation of Gestation Reduction at Reduction in Plant in Coastal Distribution and in Touristic Maintenance (Increase) Pattern Laguna de Changes in Development, Morphology Abundance Influxes, and Drainage Threats to Términos development Dominance, Changes in Costs Reproductive Coverage Diversity, Seasonality Opportunity to Success of increase at Los Distribution Higher Promote Water Individuals Petenes Maintenance Harvesting Costs Variation in Modification Changes on Increased Changes Eutrophication Changes Distribution Changes in Higher Energy Temperature of Gestation Dominance of Bleaching and in Plant Modification of in Dune and Abundance Seasonality for and Water (Increase) Pattern Species Mortality Development, Distribution and Vegetation Changes Tourism Demands Modification of Modification Disease and Dominance, Composition of Higher Sex Proportions of Species Predation Diversity, Species Presence of Distribution Increase Distribution Disease Recruitment Change in Alterations Increase Changes in Increase in Nutrient Alteration of Sex in Disease Distribution and Forest Fires Composition Proportions Increase in Disease Prevalence Coverage Salinization Prevalence Coverage Loss Hurricanes/ Changes in Temporary Permanent Changes in Change in Rapid Changes Habitat Loss of Tourist Higher Storm Tides Nesting Zones Coverage Loss Coverage loss Development Morphology in Coastal Modification Attractiveness Maintenance Nest loss Changes in and Distribution Modification of Morphology Mortality Alterations to Costs Recruitment Distribution Blossoming Distribution and Increases Touristic Sites New Alterations Loss Composition of Alterations in Infrastructure Coverage Loss Species Distribution and costs Increased Mortality Sedimentation Abundance Damage or Loss Eutrophication of Infrastructure Hydrodynamics Alteration in the Alteration of Changes in Changes in Modification of Changes Alterations of Same as Above Same as Above (Change in Dominance of Development Development Development, Distribution and in Coastal Distribution and Waves and Species Coverage Dominance, Composition of Morphology Abundance Currents) Modification Changes Diversity, Species of Species Distribution, Sedimentation Distribution Coverage Change in Nutrient Composition 21 Table 2.3 Summary of Impacts Risk Matrix for Urban Settlement and Coastal Infrastructure Dimension Communications Impacts Risk Matrix Human Settlements Services Infrastructure Water Sources Health Food Security Infrastructure Floods Land use Change Forced Relocation of Forced relocation of Saline intrusion Sea Level Rise Forced Resettlement of Reduced Fisheries Infrastructure infrastructure Depleted availability Populations Production Decrease in Food Increase of Disease Production Variation in Precipitation River-induced Floods Higher Deterioration Underdimensioned Vectors Likely quality loss Land use Change (Increase) Landslides Rates drainage systems Malnutrition Change in Production Patterns Increased Morbidity Food Quality Freshwater Demand Deterioration Increase Stress Increase Variation in Temperature Increase in Services Demand Increase Increase in Food (Increase) Decrease in Level of Demand Vectors Increase Production Costs and Reduced Availability Comfort Offered by Increase in Infectious Food Prices Existing Housing and Skin Diseases Plant Stress Increase The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche Increased Coastal floods Traffic Disorder Damaged Infrastructure Plant Stress Increase Damage to Buildings Health Damage Hurricanes (Increase) Interruption of Land Hampering Saline Intrusion Discontinuity in Food and Housing Increases in Vectors Communication Communications Supply Chains Damages to Ships Coastal Floods Increases in Accidents Deterioration of Damage to and Deaths Isolation Discontinuity in Food Storm Tides (Increase) Infrastructure due to Infrastructure, Saline Intrusion Housing Damage due to Erosion Preventing its use Lack of Access to Health Supply Chains Corrosion or Erosion Services 22 Table 2.4 Key to Building the Adaptation Matrix Potential Impact Campeche’s Adaptation Capacity Low Medium High Extreme High High Moderate High High High Moderate Medium Moderate Moderate Low Low Low Low Low 23 24 Table 2.5 Summary of Adaptation Matrix for Coastal Ecosystem, Biodiversity, and Tourism Dimension Adaptation Turtle Coastal Coastal Tourist Tourism Seagrasses Reefs Mangroves Fisheries Matrix cConservation Lagoons Erosion Attractions Infrastructure Monitoring Protection Coastal Structures Morphology Fish Population Integrated Monitoring Dynamics Analyses Diversification Regulation and Artificial Management Engineering Fishing Permit of Current Planning of Restoration Substrates Evaluation of Touristic Activity Plan for the Works and Regulations Tourism Beach Profile Sea Level Rise Protection Monitoring Cultivation for Two Natural Interventions Ecotourism Strengthening Variations Consumer Restoration Protected Areas Planning and of Regulations Rehabilitation Analysis and Sensitization Linkage Monitoring Rehabilitation Monitoring Campaigns Between Modification of Determination and Restoration Restoration Building Codes of Variations Regulation Development Programs and Desiltation and Enforcement Ecotourism Rainwater Harvesting Management Monitoring and Tourism Projects plans Monitoring Variation in Maintenance Diversification Increased The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche Controlled Transplanting Programs for Coastal Precipitation Monitoring Same as above Same as above Bird-watching Infrastructure Incubation Estuaries Dynamics (increase) Reforestation Tourism, Rural Efficiency Studies Monitoring Desiltation Tourism Water users Sensitization Campaigns Water Quality Fire Prevention Monitoring Alternative Program Studies to Dune Energy Projects Integrated Determine Monitoring Program for Vegetation and Coastal Energy-saving Variation in Management Residence Times Evaluation and Conservation Recuperation Dynamics Programs Temperature As above Plans Sanitation Same as above Monitoring of Resilient Programs Studies Energy (increase) Maintenance Programs for Species for Natural Efficiency and Restoration Populations Protected Areas Aquaculture Increase of Natural Delivering Programs Fluxes Organic Loads to Coastal Zones Remote Preventive Economic Monitoring Maintenance Instruments Management Restoration Engineering Monitoring Preventive Nest System and Improvement (insurance) Reallocation Programs Through Rehabilitation Works and Aquaculture Engineering Infrastructure Programs Regulation of Hurricanes/ Transplanting Artificial Drainage Program for Touristic Storm Tides Full Reallocation Structures Works and Construction of Nesting Reforestation Capability Territorial Zoning of Attractions Acting as Infrastructure Program for Zones Increase Planning and Vulnerability Monitoring Substrates on Closed-up Restoration and Reinforcement Regulation Areas Mouths of Maintenance of of Existing Rivers Access Infrastructure Hydrodynamics Biological Species Biological (change in and Physical Management Monitoring Monitoring  Same as above Monitoring Same as above Same as above Same as above waves and Monitoring Programs Program Program currents) Program Table 2.6 Summary of Adaptation Matrix for Urban Settlement and Coastal Infrastructure Dimension Communications Adaptation Matrix Human Settlements Services Infrastructure Water Sources Health Food Security Infrastructure Infrastructure solutions Studies to Identify Elevation of Housing Relocation of Available Varieties More Foundations Relocation or Water Wells Resistant to Brackish Reordering of Land use Relocation of Water Sea Level Rise Retrofitting of Geohydrologic Studies Planning Infrastructure Infrastructure Water Efficiency Use Relocation of Housing Relocation Cultivation Areas Measures Change in Building Wetland Restoration Systems and Codes Studies to Identify Infrastructure Species Resistant to Solutions, Elevation of Brackish Water Foundations Increase in Storage Improved Management Increased Maintenance Conservation and Capacity of Diarrheic Diseases Relocation of Review and of Drainage System Variation in Maintenance Programs Organization of Health Cultivation Areas Modification of Existing Modification and Water Efficiency Precipitation (Increase) Review of Road Services for Immediate Wetland Restoration Land use Plans Adaptation of Existing Measures Construction Guidelines Response to Extreme Soil Moisture Maintenance to Restore Infrastructure Water Wells Relocation Events Management Through Natural Fluxes and Drainage Reforestation Agroecological Measures Public Policies for Water Measures for Improved Use Adaptive Management Review of Management Water Efficiency Use Health Warning Variation in New Buildings and of Crops Framework Review of Water Tariffs, Systems Temperature (Increase) Retrofitting, Including Improvement and New Technologies Including Support for Clinical Guidelines New Technologies and Selection of Varieties Less Privileged Users Materials Warning Systems Development of Local Capacities for Retrofitting of Design of Food Warning Systems Emergency Response infrastructure at Critical Health Warning Management Systems Hurricanes (Increase) Retrofitting of Points Systems and Approaches Warning Systems Infrastructure at Critical Studies to Improve Vaccination Campaigns Basic Products Local Funds for Points Understanding of Management Emergency Response Extreme Events Increased Infrastructure Measures for Improved Warning Systems Projections Along its Infrastructure Water Efficiency use Improved Preparedness Storm Tides (Increase) Foundations Same as above Protection Relocation of Water for Emergency Elevation of Wells Response Foundations 25 The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche in this exercise, uncertainty was managed and 2.4 Main Results and Conclusions factored into the decision-making process. The SEA approach showed a range of significant However, as further addressed in the next results and benefits, which could recommend its chapter, little attention was paid to real costs and use in similar situations. Notably: the economic consequences of making wrong • It provided a platform to systematically analyze decisions or agreeing on the wrong priorities. the expected impacts that the change in a Further economic analyses are thus needed. number of selected variables may have in critical As a result of the SEA, a set of prioritized climate areas and services of the state. Climate variables change adaptation actions were agreed. It is thought to be most significant were sea level rise, interesting to note that several of the priority precipitation, temperature, hurricanes and storm actions identified are related to “soft� interventions, tides, and oceanic hydrodynamics (changes in which can be implemented with relatively low waves and currents). costs and yield high returns. These measures • By using a combination of known science and include improved monitoring and warning systems, experts’ judgment, the likelihood of changes land management plans, protection of critical in those variables was discussed and then ecosystems (such as mangroves), and adaptive assessed and agreed, and their likely impacts management. on different key dimensions of the state were Other prioritized actions relate to infrastructure classified. improvement, new protective infrastructure, and • The step-by-step approach facilitated consensus, retrofitting and relocation of existing infrastructure. as potential impacts and adaptation options Some of these options merit further economic were systematically considered and classified analysis, and the next chapter applies the real using inputs from all participants in a fair and options theory to Campeche, providing further equitable manner. elements needed when decisions have to be made. • Through the agreed classification system used 26 3. Application of Real Options Theory for Campeche economy will have greater resilience to climate 3.1 Real Options Theory shocks. But conversely, if development brings A cutting-edge exercise was conducted for Campeche, with it more people, assets, and infrastructure in which involved interviews, questionnaires, and an harm’s way, the future costs of climate impacts innovative “real options� economic analysis that will rise. Likewise, activities that degrade the takes into account environmental externalities, natural defensive properties of ecosystems can for example demonstrating that mangrove increase future climate vulnerabilities. Introducing preservation can be cost-effective compared to uncertainty into the narrative makes policy other physical infrastructure investments such as decisions considerably more complicated. For sea walls. instance, in determining how to cope with sea level There is no unique way to make decisions where rise, policy makers need to decide not only how there is high uncertainty. A limitation with the SEA and where to respond (what to do), but also how approach, as mentioned in chapter 2, is that it to prioritize decisions and the timing of responses. ignores costs and does not consider trade-offs. It is When there is high uncertainty there may be no surprise then that consensus can be obtained advantages to delaying decisions. By delaying when little attention is paid to trade-offs and the a proposed adaptation project one may give up economic consequences of making the wrong short-term gains in exchange for greater and more decision. It is this issue that is addressed in greater certain benefits in the future. Delaying a decision detail in this chapter. allows more information to become available and There can be considerable discrepancy in thus permits better decisions that are tailored to projections of climate change outcomes. The observed outcomes. In short, “wrong� decisions science of climate change is imprecise about both can be avoided. Delays of course come with the magnitude of impact and its timing. Moreover, consequences and can also impose costs. Hence the economy that will endure the consequences the benefits of waiting need to be compared of sea level rise and climate change is not the against the costs of delaying decisions. Assessing economy of today, but that of the distant future. when and how to act under uncertainty lies at the Ceteris paribus, a more developed and affluent very heart of the option value approach, which is 27 The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche designed to promote robust decision making. occurring also call for immediate actions, as these may both avoid further damages and lock in better To understand how option theory works, recall options for future and more effective interventions. the simple comparison of a project cost-benefit Such appears to be the case with mangrove analysis: A project’s net present value (NPV) is restoration and coastal management. Measures the difference between project benefits and costs, that involve information gathering, the setting up both expressed in terms of discounted cash flow of information systems, and general training and (DCF). The NPV method is built on the assumption research, even though they may sink considerable that the investment is reversible, so that if a bad resources in soft actions without apparent outcome eventuates (some of) the losses can be immediate returns, may also be conducive to recouped by (say) dismantling the investment. higher capabilities and thus be the basis for more In fact in practice most investments are (at least effective interventions in the future. Application of partially) irreversible. By ignoring this fact the NPV the real options approach suggests that this is the fails to recognize the benefits of waiting, or delaying case in Campeche. the start of the project, or phasing a project. By contrast, the real options approach recognizes that decisions can be deferred, and hence the 3.2 Implications for Campeche manager can alter course in the future. It is this managerial flexibility that is at the source of extra Applied to Campeche, these concepts suggest that (option) value conferred upon waiting. Put simply, adaptation is a complex phenomenon that in itself waiting can increase the upside and limit the may depend on the various and unknown forms that downside of strategies, enhancing value (boxes 3.1 climate change can take. The growth and healthy and 3.2). In general, the greater the uncertainty and maintenance of mangrove forests and wetlands variability of outcomes, the greater is the option constitute one of the more important reservoirs of value or benefit from waiting before investing in adaptability, for two reasons. First, these habitats irreversible options.3 Recognizing this issue calls provide protection to the coast from erosion and for a more extended investment decision-making extreme hydrometeorological events, such as floods criterion: and hurricanes. Second, the mangrove forests and associated habitats not only harbor economically Extended net present value = expected net significant resources, but also build intrinsic present value + options created – options resilience that makes recovery and rebound more destroyed likely. Biology conjectures that intact and more In general, the main uncertainty from climate diverse ecosystems are more resilient to external change revolves around the question of timing and stressors and changes in climatic conditions. degree. For instance, uncertainty over the time and Additionally mangroves also bring global benefits the extent of sea level rise implies that the value in the form of carbon capture – often termed blue- of the option to wait tends to be large. Irreversible carbon. The option value approach provides a way changes in the environment that are already of quantifying these impacts and the benefits of 3 In option value analysis this variability is measured in terms of volatility, which is approximated by the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean. 28 Box 3.1 A Simple Example: Option Value of Waiting A stylized example may be useful to gain further understanding of how and why option value can guide priorities for investment in adaptation. Consider the simple case of a two-period project. In the first period, resources are committed at a cost, while in the second period, two random outcomes (because of climate change) are possible, and as a consequence either a benefit B1 with known probability or a benefit B2 with known prob- ability. Now assume that we can delay the project for one period and observe whether the outcome is either state B1 or B2. Assume further that 1 is the good state that yields a profit and 2 is the bad state that generates a loss. If outcomes were known then investment only occurs in state 1 and so the expected net present value (NPV) of the delayed project will be: NPV1. This value is greater than the expected NPV of the project without delay if NPV1 > NPV. In other words, it is better to wait rather than to implement the project if the loss from not implement- ing in the bad state exceeds the loss from delaying implementation by one period (the “short-term loss�) under the favorable outcome. Box 3.2 A Detour on Option Values 3.2Option Box on Box 3.2 A Detour A Detour on Option Values Values Box 3.2 A Detour Option on A Box 3.2 Box Box Box Box A BoxValues more 3.2 Detour 3.23.2 AAA 3.2 3.2 on Aformal Detour AOption Detour Detour Detour Detour and ononprecise Option Values on ononOption Option Option Option detour may be useful in gaining further understanding of how and w Values Values Values Values Values A more formal value Ais and moreprecise needed formal detour to guideand mayprecise be useful priorities detourfor in may gaining investment be useful further gaining furtherof in understanding in adaptation. understanding how and whyof how an option e useful in gaining further understanding of how and why option A more value AA formal A A moreAmore and more moremore formal precise formal value formal formal formal is and and detour and needed and and precise precise may precise precise precise todetourdetour be guide useful detour detour detour may maymay may inbe may priorities be gaining bebebeuseful for useful useful useful useful in in further investment in in gaining ingaining gaining understanding gaining gaining in further further further adaptation. further further understanding of how and understanding understanding understanding understanding ofofwhy ofof how how of how how option how and andand and and why why why whywhop o estment in adaptation. A more formal andis needed precise Consider to detour guide themay priorities simplebe useful case for of investment inagaining two-period in furtheradaptation. understanding project. In the first of how resources period, and why are committed at urther understanding of how value and is why value needed valuevalue option value valueto is is isisneeded guide is needed needed needed needed to priorities to to to guide to guide guide for guide guide priorities investment priorities priorities priorities priorities for forfor for for investment ininvestment investment adaptation. investment investment in inin in adaptation. in adaptation. adaptation. adaptation. adaptation. option value is needed to guide Consider prioritiesthe for simple investment case of in adaptation. a two-period project. In the first period, resources are committe project. In the first period, Consider resources are the Csimple committed , while atcase in a theof cost a second of two-period period, project. two In the outcomes random first period, resources (because of are committed climate change) at a cost are possible,of on. Consider Consider the Consider Consider Consider Considersimple Consider C the the case the , the thesimple of simple simple while a simple simple case two-period incase case thecase case of of ofa secondof a ofa atwo-period project. a two-period two-period two-period two-period period, Intwo project. the project. project. project. project. first random In In period, InIn theInthe thethe the outcomes first first first first period, resources first period, period, period, period,(becauseareresources committed resources resources resources resources of are climate are are are at arecommitted a committed committed committed committed change)cost ofat at at aat a ataa cos co a c theC om outcomes (because of climate change) simple , whilearecase the of inconsequence a second possible, two-period period, and either as a project. two random benefit In the B1 is outcomesfirst secured with period, (becauseresources probability are of climate committed p or change) benefit B at are withpossible, and as possi are probability a1 a cost of C , at while in C C C C the theC , while second while , ,while , while secondin inin inthe period, in the thethe second period, two second second second two period, random period, period, random two outcomes two two random random outcomesrandom outcomes (because outcomes outcomes (because of (because climate (because (because of climate of change) of climate of climate climate change) are 2 change) possible, change) change) are areand are arepossible, as a and possible, possible, and ana period, resources are committed with probability p or benefit B 2 a cost consequence ,ofwhile with probability consequence either Indicating 1 the benefit  second with p . B is period, period, r either 1the benefit secured two two rate of discount, random with B random is secured 1 probability outcomes outcomes the usual with or (because (because probability p expectedbenefit of netB of 2 pclimate climateor with present benefitchange) change) probability value (NPV) B2 are are possible, 1possible, with of pprobability . projec the an use of climate change) possible, consequence are possible, and asand asconsequence either consequence aconsequence consequence a consequence consequence benefit Indicating Bbenefit either either eithereither either either benefit is with rB secured benefit benefit benefit the B 1B B isB is with is rateisissecured is secured probability secured secured secured secured of with discount, with with withwith with probability p or probability probability probability probability the benefit usual p orp pBp expectedor poror orbenefit with or benefit benefit benefitbenefit net B benefit B B BB probability present with with with withwith value probability 1  p. 1 probability probability probability probability (NPV) of 1 11 1  p the p . p ppr. p . e usual expected net present value Indicating (NPV) of with the r the project rate pB1of discount, 1  (1  p ) B 2 11 the 1 1 usual expected net present value 2 (NPV) 2 222of 2 the project or benefit B 2 with probability Indicating Indicating with 1  p . Indicating Indicating is: Indicating pB r NPV Indicating Indicatingthe with (1 with rate with   withrof with p rr )the the Br rthe discount, the therate pBthe rate rate rate 1 rate rateof ( 1 ofofthe of ofdiscount, of discount, discount,  p ) BC usual discount, discount, discount, the .expected the the the the the usualusual usualnet usual usual usual expected expected expected expected present expected expected net net value net netnet net present present (NPV) present present present present value value value of value value valuethe(NPV) (NPV) (NPV) (NPV) (NPV) ofof project ofof of the the the the project the project project project project is: NPV pB  (1 pB 1is: NPV  2 1  C r. 2  C . t present value (NPV) of the project 1 ppB  ) B pB pB r1 pB ( 1 (1  ( 1(1 (1  p )p p B ) pp )B 1) B B )B r (NPV) of the project is: NPV  is: is: is:NPV is: is: NPV 1 NPV is: NPV Now NPV      assume 1 21 1  1 that C . we 2 can 2 22  2 C.  C  delay C.C C . .the . project for one period and observe whether the outcome is ei 1 r 1 1 11 1  r r rrr Now assume Now assume thatthe can we outcome B1 that orNow delay we B 2. assume can Assume the delay project that the further for we one can project that delay 1for period is the the one and project period good state observe andfor observe thatone whether period yields the and whether a profit observe outcome andoutcome the 2isis whether the bad the is either state outcome state that ge t for one period and observe whether Now assume is either that westate can delay the project for one period and observe whether the outcome is eithe Now assumeNow that Now Now Nowassumewe assume assume B assume can orthatBdelay that thatthat . we Assume wewethe we can canproject can can delay delay further delaydelay the forthe the theone that project 1 project period project project is the for for for and for good one one one one observe period period period state period that and whether and and and observe yields observe the observe observe a outcome whether profit whether whetherwhether andthe 2 is the thethe iseither outcome outcomeoutcome the outcome state bad is is state is is eith eith eithe either thas od state that yields aeither and 2 B profit state or B 2. Assume Assume further further B1 that that 1 a1 isis thethe good goodB2 statestate that yields that yields a profita profitandand 2 is 2 the the state is bad bad that generates a 1 2 is1the bad B state or loss B that . Assume (i.e. generates  C further  0that and 1 is the  good C  0 state). that If yields outcomes a profit were and known 2 is thenthe bad investmentstate that only gener occ B1isor B2. Assume B 1B B orB or Boror.further 2B BB .2. Assume .Assume Assume Assume that 1 further further is the further further that good that thatthat 1 is 11 state 1 isis the is thethethat the good good goodgoodyields state state state state athat that profit that that yields yields and yields yields a2 is aprofit a profita the profit profit and bad and andand 2 isstate 2 22 is is theis that the the the bad bad bad generates bad state state state statethat that that a gener that generatgene gen d observe whether the outcome either state aB r B1 B B 11 1 1 22 2 state that generates loss (i.e. loss1 (i.e. lossC  10 (i.e.and 2 C  0 and  C  10  ). rIf 2 outcomesC  0 were . If ). If outcomes outcomes known then were were known then investment only investment occurs in only 0profit and 2 is the ). If outcomes bad were state that known then generates B1 a only investment B 1B1 Boccurs BB 1 11 1 inB r B 2BB B B 2 22 1  r loss (i.e. loss 1 loss loss  loss loss (i.e.rC (i.e. (i.e. (i.e. 0 (i.e. C and   C  CC C2  01 0  00 and0r and C and and 0 and 2 ). If C  C C  C C outcomes 0  0 00 ). ). 0). ). If If ). outcomes were If If If outcomes outcomes outcomes outcomes known werewere then were were were known known investment known known known thenthen then thenthen investment only investment investment investment investment poccurs B onlyonly inonly only only occurs occurs occur occu occurs in known then investment 1  r state only 11 1  occurs 1 1 and r1  r rr r in so 1  thestate r 11 expected and 1 11  r1  so NPV  r rrr  the of expected the delayed NPV of the project delayed will be: NPV project 1 B  ( will )[ p 1 B  C] . T re known then investment only occurs p in B1 state 1 and so theof expected NPVproject of the delayed project will p be: )[ NPV 11  rC ](1 (  r ) value )[ 1 C elayed project will be: be: NPV1  (state 1 )[and so the  C expected ] . This .This NPV value value is the delayed greater than the will be: expected NPVNPV of  1 the ( project p B p pp1 withoutp p B BB BB. This state 1 and state so state the state state state 1is 11 and1and expected 1 and greater and and so so soso the the so than NPV the the theexpectedof expected the expected expected expected the expected NPV NPV delayed NPV NPV NPV NPV of of ofof the the ofproject the of the the delayed delayed the delayed delayed delayed will project project be: projectproject project NPV project without willwill will will will  delay be:be:( be: be: NPV be: NPV1 NPV NPV if  NPV )[ NPVr  ( ( 1 1 (>(( r )[ NPV, )C)[ )[ ] )[1 )[ .  This 1 or 1 1r1 1 (1  C  C  C ] value.C] C]r. ] . This ) This ] . .Thi ThisThv 1  r (1  r ) 1 1 11 11 1 1  r (1  r ) p B1 is greater than the expected NPV of the project without 1  delayr (1 if  1 NPV r 1)1 r1   r >r(r 1 (  NPV,( 11 (r1  ) r r ) orr)) be: NPV roject 1  ( delay without )[ if NPV 1> ]is CNPV, greater . This orvalue than the expected (1 NPV p ) B of the project r without B 1 delay if NPV1 > NPV, or 1 1  r delay ) NPV (1  rif > NPV, is greater is is thanor isis [( greater isthe greater 1 greater greater greater thanpthan expected C )than thanthan thethe NPV the the the expected expected expected expected expected ( 1of 2 the p ]B NPV )  NPV NPV NPV p project NPV [ of of ofof the the without ofthe ][ the the project rproject project project project delay  without without without B C if without]NPV without delay . delay > delay delay delay if if NPV,if if NPV NPV ifNPV NPV or NPV > > >1>NPV, > NPV, NPV, NPV,NPV,oror oror or 1 (1  [( p 1 ) Bp 2 )C  1  rr 2 B 11  r ]  p [ ( 1  ][ r ) 1  C ] 1 . 1 1 1 1 [( 1  p ) C (1   p1 )B 1( (1(1 1 ] 1 ( p pp B ) pp p )B r[ ) B)B B ][B r rr  B C B B ] B B. y if  C] 1 (  ) r r 1 NPV . > NPV, or r r The difference NPV – [( 1 NPV  p is ) C  r simply   pthe [ 2 value1 1  ] 2 r p ofp( [ 1the roption )][ 1  to (  1C 11 wait.  ]]r.) 2 1 r) [(1  p )C[(  1 1[([(  [( 1 1 1  p )p C p )p ) CC ) C 2  ]  ]2 ][ 2 ] ]] p  [ p1 [p[ [ ][ C][][] ][ .1 1 C   ]C C . C . ] ]. . The 1 r difference 1 111   r11NPV r rrrr 1 (1 – NPV 1 1 r11  ) r1  isr rrsimply (r1( ( 1(1 1 ( r1  )rrthe ) r )r)) value of the option to wait. The difference NPV The 1 – NPV is NPV difference simply 1 – theNPV value of the the is simply option value to of wait.the option to wait. e value of the option to wait. The difference NPV – NPV is simply the value of the option The differenceThe The The TheNPV 1 – NPV difference difference difference difference NPV NPV NPV is NPV 1– simply 111 –1– NPV – NPV NPV NPV the is is value isis simply simply simply simply of the the the the the value option value value value of of theto ofof wait. the the the option option option option toto totowait. to wait. wait. wait. wait. n to wait. 3.2 Implications for Campeche 3.2 Implications 3.2 Implications for Campeche for Campeche che 3.2 Implications Applied 3.2 Implications 3.2 3.2 tofor Implications Implicationsfor Campeche, Campeche for Campeche these for concepts suggest that adaptation is a complex phenomenon Campeche Campeche 3.2 Implications for Campeche Appliedphenomenon toitselfApplied Campeche, to Campeche, these these concepts suggest that adaptation is a complex phenome suggest that adaptation is a complex Applied may that to in concepts depend Campeche, on the various these suggest concepts andthat adaptation unknown suggest that forms is a complex that adaptation climate is a phenomenon change complex can that take. phenomenon 29 inThe tha Applied itself to may Campeche, Applied Applied Applied Applied to to toto Campeche, itself depend onthese Campeche, Campeche, Campeche, may the concepts depend various these these these these on andsuggest concepts the that concepts concepts concepts various unknown adaptation suggest suggest suggest suggest and formsthatthat that that unknown that is a complex adaptation adaptation adaptation adaptation forms climate is is that changeaisphenomenon is a aa complex complex complex complex climate can take. that phenomenon phenomenon phenomenon phenomenon change The canin take. growth th th thatt T unknown forms that climate change can and healthy take. The maintenance of mangrove forests and wetlands constitute one of the more growth im itself may itself depend itself itself may itself itselfmaymay mayon may depend the various depend depend depend depend and healthy onon on on the on the and the the various the unknown various various various various maintenance and andandforms and and unknown unknown unknown unknown unknown of mangrove that forms climate forms forms forms forms that change that that that that climate climate climate climate climate forestsconstitute and wetlands can change take. change changechange change can The cancangrowth can can take. take. take.take. take. The The The The The gro growgr g gro tation is a complex phenomenon andthat in maintenance healthy of mangrove forests and wetlands one constitute of the more one of the mo important The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche an environmentally more prudent and cautious and 2-meter-high sea wall, built in two stages (of approach. 1 meter each) over 10 consecutive years, under three different scenarios of sea level rise and eight The option value approach has been directly alternative hypotheses on the timing of project applied and evaluated in depth for the case of implementation. Campeche and sea level rise using approximate estimates of cost and benefits, and the report The results indicate that hard protection measures capturing the overall work, performed in the do not appear to be attractive at least for the context of this collaboration, is now available next three decades in Campeche, for three main (Scandizzo 2012). For the sake of efficiency, only reasons. First, under suitable assumptions three alternatives have been selected: a sea wall, about predicted sea level rises and associated mangrove restoration, and the implementation of variabilities, the expected loss of land would be integrated coastal zone management (ICZM). These limited for the next 20 years. Second, the option alternatives, which are described in the following to build a wall sufficiently high to cover the risk of a sections, have been selected as case studies, 2-meter sea level rise may not be exercised, and if and represent more traditional, infrastructure- it is not needed, the (downside) costs are too great. intense approaches than the softer approaches Third, no significant additional capability would be based on ecosystem conservation and integrated created by the hard protection measures. management. These are only three of the multiple solutions identified during the SEA workshop. Restoration of Mangroves With an area of approximately 116,777 hectares,4 Hard Infrastructure: A Sea Wall the mangrove forests of Campeche are the most Sea walls are representative of “hard� protection extensive in the Gulf of Mexico and are a complex measures, which have been widely practiced and valuable habitat for a large variety of flora and around the world. The capital cost of constructing fauna. In addition, mangroves provide a protective a 1-meter-tall hard structure of 1-meter length is and stabilizing function. Yet, despite their estimated at $4,500 (Neumann and Livesay 2001; environmental and economic value, the mangroves Ng and Mendelsohn 2003). The cost increases have steadily deteriorated under the combined geometrically with height, mainly because of the impact of hydrological pollution, population trapezoidal shape of the structure, whose base pressure, intrusive infrastructure, and economic needs to be increased proportionally with its height. activity. An ongoing project of the state government The additional construction costs required to based on cutting-edge science attempts the difficult update hard structures each decade consequently task of restoration and reconstitution of habitats. increase with the square of the height of the The analysis finds that using a range of estimates structure (Neumann and Livesay 2001; Yohe et al. of benefits and costs from the literature, as well as 1996; Ng and Mendelsohn 2003). Based on a range data from the pilot project in Campeche, assuming of plausible assumptions, the study computes the a discount rate of 6 percent per year, option economic rationale of building a 35-kilometer-long values for mangrove restoration range between 4 According to data from Mexico’s National Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity (Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento de la Biodiversidad, CONABIO). 30 $5 million and $7 million per square kilometer. volatility). Again the reasons are obvious. ICZM While restoration would destroy a waiting option raises capacities and is akin to a no-regrets (whose value increases with uncertainties), it could approach that can be scaled in modular fashion recreate options lost without the mangrove habitat and tailored to new threats as new information (such as avoiding decline of fishing, and reducing becomes available. erosion of the coast). Restoration could also be implemented gradually, starting from priority areas 3.3 Assessment of Real Options and moving to others as more information becomes available. The benefits of the gradual option can Approach in Campeche be reasonably accurately estimated, and show This exercise illustrates the application of a that uncertainty can be effectively reduced by (relatively) new method to guide decision making proceeding in stages, boosting the extended net under high (and unknowable) levels of uncertainty. present values, at least for values of volatility that The approach allows for the identification of are below the 100 percent mark. robust policy options that are economically beneficial under different scenarios and varying Coastal Zone Management levels of uncertainty. Option value techniques Integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) is the are commonly employed in the finance literature most widely recognized and applied protocol to to identify investment decisions that are resilient deal with climate change and sea level rise (Harvey across a spectrum of outcomes. The methods are 2006). It is a comprehensive approach to coastal technically advanced and conceptually complex planning that aims at integrating and balancing but they can be applied with ease, given the wide multiple objectives in the planning process (Christie availability of specialized software. et al. 2005). Because sea level rise is a long-term The results of the pilot exercise conducted in phenomenon, ICZM calls for an approach mainly Campeche suggest that even though global based on adaptation, mitigation, and managed estimates for many costs have been used (such as retreat. Costs of ICZM vary considerably due to sea wall construction) the magnitudes are so large different institutional capacity, information needs, that the results seem to be robust and are unlikely and community involvement. to alter dramatically with more refined data. In Benefits from the ICZM approach are derived general, options that are modular, flexible, and mainly from enhanced habitat protection, local build capacity are found to lead to more robust and infrastructure, and business, and from tourism. prudent adaptation measures. The outcome of the The results suggest that a scaled-down program exercise also suggests that studies at this scale are could yield high benefits. These results are found best conducted ahead of project design – even at to be robust to variations in scenarios (increasing the programmatic level – to guide the identification of suitable adaptation approaches. 31 4. Conclusions The first objective of this exercise was to conduct a vertically. A more detailed monitoring system of detailed literature review of available knowledge on beach erosion and coastal dynamics in selected climate change impacts along the coast of the state spots, and studies on water quality, would increase of Campeche. Understanding the current situation existing knowledge and modeling efforts on the and existing knowledge gaps is important for issue, and are recommended. Campeche, as the state has an extensive coastline The Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve region that provides exceptional natural richness, and contains coastal wetland ecosystems, such as salt contains several key natural habitats and forested marshes and mangroves, which are particularly areas that are home to critical ecosystems and vulnerable to rising sea level. Wetlands are crucial species. In addition, over 70 percent of the ecosystems that provide habitat for many species, population resides in four coastal municipalities, playing a key role in nutrient uptake, serving and most of its relevant assets, including as the basis for many communities’ economic significant oil industry facilities, are located along livelihoods, providing recreational opportunities, the coastline. and protecting local areas from flooding. As the Some recent studies reviewed indicate that over sea rises, it is expected that the outer boundary 58 percent of the state’s population is vulnerable of these wetlands will erode, and the horizontal to a 1-meter sea level rise (up to a total of over migration of these systems to create new wetlands 440,000 inhabitants). All studies point to Laguna is traditionally limited by human development and de Términos (where the oil industry and Ciudad tourism infrastructure. del Carmen, second biggest city in the state, are The main objective of this exercise, however, was located) as the most vulnerable area of the state, to demonstrate the feasibility of using alternative together with the capital city, San Francisco de approaches, including the SEA approach to Campeche, and the natural protected area of Los reaching consensus (largely a subjective and Petenes (home to important mangrove ecosystems). qualitative approach, described in chapter 2), and The review also showed gaps where more research a more mathematically rigorous economic decision- would be beneficial, targeted particularly toward making approach using option values (developed improved-resolution datasets, both spatially and in chapter 3). 33 The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche A SEA-like approach was used to systematically “build now and regret later� approaches suggested analyze expected climate change impacts along by a heavy infrastructure-oriented approach to the coast of Campeche, identify a menu of adaptation in Campeche. In all cases participants adaptation measures, and prioritize them, using a exhibited care, sensitivity, and concern for their powerful combination of solid scientific knowledge environment when the costs were identified. and local expertise. A step-by-step methodology, In contrast, crude cost-benefit analysis fails to the climate risk matrix approach, proved useful recognize these nuances. Instead, an extension to reach consensus among different stakeholders to account for options lost also supported such an with different priorities and interests. approach. This is an important lesson that needs to be reinforced, especially when considering large The real options theory was applied to selected and long-lived infrastructure. adaptation options, and the benefits of waiting were compared with the costs of delaying decisions. As a result of the exercise, there is more information This technique has provided important information on knowledge gaps that need improving, for decision makers on when and how to act adaptation options that should be considered, and under uncertainty, thus promoting robust decision economic factors that need to be well understood making. and mainstreamed at the core of decision making. The positive results obtained through the SEA and The specific results obtained are less important real options methodologies suggest that they can than the overall tenor and spirit of the messages be applied elsewhere when dealing with decision- from these exercises. Most importantly both making under high uncertainty. The conclusions exercises – SEA and real options – demonstrated reached in this work would also be of great value that involved actors are ultimately consistent and in other coastal zones along with low-lying areas cautious in their approach to climate risks. There threatened with sea level rise. was little support among stakeholders for the 34 References AGO (Australian Greenhouse Office). 2006. Climate Comisión de Recursos Hidráulicos. 2008. “Informe de Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for las inundaciones de 2007 en el estado de Tabasco�, Business and Government. Canberra: Government of Diagnóstico preliminar. Senado de la República. Australia, Department of the Environment and Heritage. http://www.climatechange.gov.au/community/~/ Damania, R, D. George, M. Peter, S. Jacobsen, D.J. media/publications/local-govt/risk-management.ashx. Rodriquez, A.J. Glauber, and Y. Sanchez Ramos. 2010. Confronting a Changing Climate in Michoacán. Bender, M.A., T.R. Knutson, R.E. Tuleya, J.J. Sirutis, G.A. Washington, DC: World Bank. Vecchi, S.T. Garner, and I.M. Held. 2010. “Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Durán Valdez, G. 2011. Análisis del Peligro por Marea de Intense Atlantic Hurricanes.� Science 327 (5964): 454– Tormenta en el Golfo de México. Master Thesis. UNAM, 58. doi:10.1126/science.110568. Engineering Institute. Bezaury-Creel, J.E., L.M. Ochoa Ochoa, and J.F. Torres. Emanuel, K. 2007. “Environmental Factors Affecting 2007. �reas Naturales Protegidas Estatales, del Distrito Tropical Cyclone Power Dissipation.� Journal of Climate Federal y Municipales de México. Mexico City: Comisión 20: 5497–508. doi:10.1175/2007JCLI157.1. Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad, Flores-Villela, O., and P. Pérez. 1988. Conservación Comisión Nacional de �reas Naturales Protegidas, The en México: Síntesis sobre Vertebrados Terrestres, Nature Conservancy, and PRONATURA. Vegetación y Uso de Suelo. Xalapa: INIREB-Conservación Bitran, D.B. 2001. “Características del impacto Internacional. socioeconómico de los principales desastres ocurridos Harvey, N. 2006. “Strategic Assessment and Integrated en México en el periodo de 1980-1999�, Coordinación Coastal Management: Implications for Coastal Capacity de Investigación, �rea de Estudios Económicos y Building in Australia.� In Coastal Management in Sociales CENAPRED. Australia: Key Institutional and Governance Issues for Caetano, E., V. Innocentini, V. Magaña, S. Martins, and Coastal Natural Resource Management and Planning, B. Méndez. 2010. “Cambio Climático y el Aumento del ed. N. Lazarow et al., 89–100. CRC for Coastal Zone, Nivel del Mar.� In Vulnerabilidad de las Zonas Costeras Estuary and Waterway Management. http://www. Mexicanas ante el Cambio Climático, ed. A.V. Botello, ozcoasts.gov.au/pdf/CRC/Coastal_Management_in_ S. Villanueva-Fragoso, J. Gutiérrez, and J.L. Rojas Australia.pdf#page=107. Galaviz, 283–304. Mexico: Semarnat-INE, UNAM-ICMyL, IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Universidad Autónoma de Campeche. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Carbajal Domínguez, J.A. 2010. “Zonas Costeras Bajas Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth en el Golfo de México ante el Incremento del Nivel del Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel Mar.� In Vulnerabilidad de las Zonas Costeras Mexicanas on Climate Change (S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, ante el Cambio Climático, ed. A.V. Botello, S. Villanueva- Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Fragoso, J. Gutiérrez, and J.L. Rojas Galaviz, 359–80. Miller, eds.) Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, Mexico: Semarnat-INE, UNAM-ICMyL, Universidad United States: Cambridge University Press. Autónoma de Campeche. IUCN (International Union for the Conservation of Christie, P., K. Lowry, A.T. White, E.G. Oracion, L. Nature). 2001. Ruling of the IUCN Red List Standards Sievanen, R.S. Pomeroy, R.B. Pollnac, J.M. Patlis, and V. and Petitions Subcommittee on Petitions against the Rose-Liza. 2005. “Key Findings from a Multidisciplinary 1996 Listings of Four Marine Turtle Species. Examination of Integrated Coastal Management Process Márquez, R., and M.C. Jiménez. 2010. “El Posible Efecto Sustainability.� Ocean and Coastal Management 4: del Cambio Climático en las Tortugas Marinas.� In 468–83. Vulnerabilidad de las Zonas Costeras Mexicanas ante el 35 The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche Cambio Climático, ed. A.V. Botello, S. Villanueva-Fragoso, content/coastal-urban-climate-futures-se-australia- J. Gutiérrez, and J.L. Rojas Galaviz, 97–112. Mexico: wollongong-lakes-entrance. Semarnat-INE, UNAM-ICMyL, Universidad Autónoma de Campeche. Ortiz Pérez, M.A., and A.P. Méndez Linares. 2000. “Repercusiones por Ascenso del Nivel del Mar en el Márquez, A., V. Torres Rodríguez, A. Bolongaro-Crevenna Litoral del Golfo de México.� In México, una Visión hacia Recaséns, J. Chavarría Hernández, F. Varona Cordero, F. el Siglo XXI. El Cambio Climático en México. Mexico: Expósito Díaz, A. Galván Fernández, E. Márquez García, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de C. Monsalvo Jiménez, V. Pérez Aguilar, L. Ramírez Geografía. García, M. Santana Carrillo, A. Santana Carrillo, A. Márquez García, and A. García Vicario. 2008. Estudio Ortiz Pérez, M.A., and A.P. Méndez Linares. 2004. de la Dinámica Costera del Litoral Norte del Municipio “Vulnerabilidad al Ascenso del Nivel del Mar y Sus del Carmen, Campeche. PEMEX-PEP Report. Mexico: Implicaciones en las Costas Bajas del Golfo de México Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Morelos, Municipio y Mar Caribe.� In El Manejo Costero en México, ed. E. del Carmen, Campeche. Rivera Arriaga, G.J. Villalobos, I. Azuz Adeath, and F. Rosado May, 307–19. Mexico: Universidad Autónoma de McEvoy, D. Enhancing the Resilience of Seaports to Campeche, SEMARNAT, CETYS-Universidad, Universidad a Changing Climate. RMIT University. http://www. de Quintana Roo. nccarf.edu.au/content/enhancing-resilience-seaports- changing-climate. Parker, D.J., ed. 2000. Floods. 2 vols. London: Routledge. Neumann, J.E., and N.D. Livesay. 2001. “Coastal Pielke, R.A., and R.A. Pielke. 1997. Hurricanes: Their Structures: Dynamic Economic Modeling.� In Global Nature and Impacts on Society. New York: Wiley. Warming and the American Economy: New Horizons in Posada-Vanegas, G., G. Durán-Valdez, R. Silva- Environment, ed. R. Mendelsohn, 132–48. Cheltenham, Casarin, M. Maya-Magaña, and J. Salinas-Prieto. 2011. United Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing. “Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding Induced by Tropical Ng, W.S., and R. Mendelsohn. 2003. The Impact of Cyclones.� In Proceedings of the 32nd International Seal Level Rise on Non-market Land in Singapore. New Conference on Coastal Engineering, Shanghai, China, Haven, CT: Yale FES. 2010. http://journals.tdl.org/ICCE/article/view/1195. Nicholls, R.J. 2004. “Coastal Flooding and Wetland Loss Posada Vanegas, G., and B.E. Vega Serratos. 2010. in the 21st century: Changes under the SRES Climate Evaluación de Zonas Inundables para la Ciudad de San and Socioeconomic Scenarios.� Global Environmental Francisco de Campeche. In Cambio Climático en México Change 14: 69–86. un Enfoque Costero-Marino, ed. E. Rivera-Arriaga, I. Azuz-Adeath, L. Alpuche Gual, and G.J. Villalobos-Zapata, Nicholls, R.J., P.P. Wong, V.R. Burkett, C.D. Woodroffe, 607–22. Mexico: Universidad Autónoma de Campeche, and J.E. Hay. 2008. “Climate Change and Coastal Cetys-Universidad, Gobierno del Estado de Campeche. Vulnerability Assessment: Scenarios for Integrated Assessment.� Sustainability Science 3 (1): 89–102. Posada-Vanegas, G., B.E. Vega Serratos, R. Zetina Tapia, and G. Ruiz Martínez. 2010. Ubicación y Caracterización Nicholls, R.J., C.D. Woodroffe, and V.R. Burkett. 2009. de Zonas de Peligro de Inundación por Marea de “Coastline Degradation as an Indicator of Global Tormenta en las Costas de México. Final Report. Fondos Change.� In Climate Change: Observed Impacts on Mixtos CNA-CONACYT CNA-2006-01-48639. Planet Earth, ed. T.M. Letcher, 409–24. Elsevier. Posas, P.J. 2011. “Exploring Climate Change Criteria Norman, B. Coastal Urban Climate Futures in SE for Strategic Environmental Assessments.� Progress in Australia: From Wollongong to Lakes Entrance. Planning 75 (3): 109–54. University of Canberra. http://www.nccarf.edu.au/ 36 Sánchez-Salazar, M.T., and M. Martínez Galicia. 2000. Vecchi, G.A., and T.R. Knutson. 2008. “On Estimates “La Vulnerabilidad de la Industria y los Sistemas of Historical North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity.� Energéticos ante el Cambio Climático Global.� In México, Journal of Climate 21: 3580–600. una Visión hacia el Siglo XXI. El Cambio Climático en México. Mexico: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Woodroffe, C.D. A Model Framework for Assessing México, Instituto de Geografía. Risk and Adaptation to Climate Change on Australian Coasts. Wollongong University. http://www.nccarf. Scandizzo, P.L. 2012. Climate Adaptation and Real edu.au/content/model-framework-assessing-risk-and- Option Evaluation: A Case Study in Campeche. World adaptation-climate-change-australian-coasts. Bank and University of Rome Tor Vergata. Yohe, G., J. Neumann, P. Marshall, and A. Ameden. Smith, K., and R. Ward. 1998. Floods: Physical Processes 1996. The Economic Cost of Greenhouse-Induced Sea and Human Impacts. Chichester: Wiley. Level Rise for Developed Property in the United States. Climate Change 32: 387–410. Sosa, V., J. Salvador Flores, V. Rico-Gray, R. Lira, and J.J. Ortíz. 1985. “Lista Florística y Sinonimia Maya.� Zavala-Hidalgo, J., R. de Buen Kalman, R. Romero- In Etnoflora Yucatanense, Part 1. Mérida, Mexico: Centeno, and F. Hernandez-Maguey. 2010. “Tendencias Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán. del Nivel del Mar en las Costas Mexicanas.� In Vulnerabilidad de las Zonas Costeras Mexicanas ante el Torres Rodríguez, V., A. Márquez García, A. Bolongaro Cambio Climático, ed. A.V. Botello, S. Villanueva-Fragoso, Crevenna, J. Chavarría Hernández, G. Expósito Díaz, J. Gutiérrez, and J.L. Rojas Galaviz, 249­ –68. Mexico: and E. Márquez García. 2010. “Tasa de Erosión y Semarnat-INE, UNAM-ICMyL, Universidad Autónoma de Vulnerabilidad Costera en el Estado de Campeche Campeche. Debidos a Efectos en el Cambio Climático.� In Vulnerabilidad de las Zonas Costeras Mexicanas ante el Cambio Climático, ed. A.V. Botello, S. Villanueva-Fragoso, J. Gutiérrez, and J.L. Rojas Galaviz, 325–44. Mexico: Semarnat-INE, UNAM-ICMyL, Universidad Autónoma de Campeche. 37 Publications from the LCSEN Occasional Paper Series Environment & Water Resources n Empowering Women in Irrigation Management: The Sierra in Peru (2013) n Environmental Health in Nicaragua: Addressing Key Environmental Challenges (Available in English and Spanish; 2010, Reprinted in 2013) n Expanding Financing for Biodiversity Conservation: Experiences from Latin America and the Caribbean (Available in English (2012) and Spanish (2013)) n Overcoming Institutional and Governance Challenges in Environmental Management. Case Studies from Latin America and the Caribbean Region (2013) n Policy and Investment Priorities to Reduce Environmental Degradation of the Lake Nicaragua Watershed (Cocibolca) (Available in English and Spanish; 2010, Reprinted in 2013) n Uncertain Future, Robust Decisions; The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche, Mexico (2013) To find copies of these publications, please visit our website: www.worldbank.org/lac 39 Latin America & Caribbean Region Environment & Water Resources Occasional Paper Series