For Official Use Only CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CAS/CPS Data Country: Belize CAS/CPS Year: FY12 – FY15 CAS/CPS Period: FY 12 – FY 15 CLR Period: FY12 – FY15 Date of this review: May 19, 2017 2. Ratings CLR Rating IEG Rating Development Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Unsatisfactory WBG Performance: Good Fair 3. Executive Summary i. Belize is a small and open, upper middle income country that is highly exposed to natural disasters and terms of trade shocks. The country had a population of 359,287 in 2015 with a GNI per capita of US$4,490. The country experienced a decline in its GDP growth from 3.7 percent in 2012 to 1.0 percent in 2015, but the average growth during the review period was 2.5 percent, higher than the LAC average of 1.5 percent and at par with the rest of the world. Poverty is a rural phenomenon in Belize, reaching 55 percent compared to 28 percent in urban areas in 2009. Overall, the latest poverty estimates indicate that 42 percent of the population lived in poverty in 2009. Income inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient increased from 0.42 in 2009 to 0.53 in 2013. In 2015, Belize ranked 103 (of 188 countries) on its Human Development Index compared to its rank of 96 (of 187 countries) in 2012. ii. The government’s medium and long-term development strategies as reflected in the National Poverty Eradication Strategy and Action Plan, 2009-2013 (NPESAP), the Medium-Term Development Strategy (MTDS, 2010-2013) and Horizon 2030 articulated the priority areas of government to include sustainable environment and natural resource management, environment and disaster risk management, macroeconomic and fiscal management, government transparency and accountability, growth and sustainability, and human development. The major challenges the country faced during the CPS period include natural disasters, terms of trade shocks, rising fiscal deficits and debt accumulation. iii. This is the first Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Belize following the Bank’s re- engagement in 2009 through an Interim Strategy Note (ISN-FY 09-11), after a long hiatus (2001- 2009). The Bank suspended its program in the country in 2001 due to fiscal and governance concerns. The CPS had three focus areas (i) policies and strategies for mainstreaming of natural resources and climate resilience; (ii) institutional capacity strengthening for natural resource management and climate change; and (iii) investments to strengthen climate resilience. The Bank concentrated on achieving sustainable natural resource-based growth and enhanced climate resilience, leveraged its limited IBRD envelope through trust fund resources and collaboration with other development partners. iv. During the review period, IBRD lending consisted of two operations or a total of $45 million. One operation was carried over from the ISN ($15 million) and during the CPS period, one CLR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CLR Review Manager/Coordinator Felix Oppong Juan Jose Fernandez- Pablo Fajnzylber Economist, IEGEC Ansola Manager, IEGEC Consultant, IEGEC Takatoshi Kamezawa Lourdes Pagaran Senior Evaluation Officer CLRR Coordinator, IEGEC IEGEC For Official Use Only CLR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group additional operation was approved in the amount of US$30 million in FY15. The Bank’s limited IBRD financing was complemented by eight trust funds (US$18.3million). It leveraged additional funds from other development partners and regional Bank funds for specific activities, such as a US$1 million Africa Caribbean and Pacific (ACP)-EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Program, €2.9 million from the EU-funded Global Climate Change Alliance grant, and US$2.7million from Japan Social Development Fund. For the same period, IBRD delivered one economic and sector work (ESW) on the financial sector assessment program (FSAP) for Belize and four TAs on a range of topics including payments system, municipal finance, conditional cash transfers and sustainable resource management. IFC had one advisory service (AS) and one short-term trade finance guarantee operation with one of the major banks with a total net commitments US$7.26 million. v. On balance, IEG rates the development outcome as Unsatisfactory. Of the eleven objectives, three were mostly achieved, four were partially achieved and four were not achieved. The Bank supported the preparation of the National Environmental Policy and Strategy, built technical and fiduciary capacity of national entities to access climate funds, and created awareness on environmental sustainability issues. Also, the Bank contributed to the establishment of the Belize inter-ministerial National Climate Change Committee to improve coordination on climate change across different sectors. In other focus areas where the outcomes were partially achieved, the program supported various capacity building efforts on climate resilience such as forest fire reduction techniques and conflict resolution, rehabilitation of drainage on local roads and training of communities on sustainable livelihood activities. Also, stocktaking and mapping exercises, and gap analysis were undertaken which are critical steps towards achieving the objective of enhancing the effectiveness of the EIA system. However, the program was unable to enhance the effectiveness of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) system, climate proof key infrastructure, increase ecosystem resilience to climate change impacts, and enhance preparedness through improved disaster risk management institutions. IEG’s assessment of the development outcome was based on the results matrix in the CPS because the Bank did not prepare a performance and learning review (PLR). vi. IEG rates Bank performance as Fair. The Bank’s program was concentrated on climate resilience and natural resources sector. This was relevant to the country due to the frequency of climate related hazards and disasters. In effect, the Bank was selective when it focused on the natural resource sector. However, there were three focus areas and 11 objectives which were not commensurate with the Bank’s limited portfolio and knowledge work. The Bank’s interventions were not focused on one sector but covered other areas that were not part of the program objectives. A major lending operation that was critical to support several objectives was not delivered on time as in the case of the Climate Resilience Project which was approved only in FY 15. In addition, one major technical assistance which was expected to support the first two objectives was dropped (and was replaced at mid-stream) but the CLR did not mention that this key intervention was dropped. The results framework was weak and its objectives were not well aligned with the interventions. The indicators did not have baselines and targets (except those of Objective 8). Internal Bank Group cooperation was limited. The CPS was not a joint IFC-World Bank product. The Bank did not undertake a Performance Learning Review (PLR), which was a missed opportunity in retrofitting a weak results framework. The Bank collaborated with other development partners during the CPS preparation and implementation. The CLR reports that the principal risks were the country’s limited experience with Bank operations and weak implementation capacity in areas such as procurement and financial management. The Bank put in place mitigation measures such as providing implementation support and training for affected staff. vii. IEG concurs with some of the lessons presented in the CLR. These are: (i) interventions to support Belize resilience to climate change and natural hazards require strong coordination across ministries, government agencies, donor partners, and other stakeholders; (ii) projects that support municipalities or community-based activities require a long gestation period, and realistic estimates of the pace of implementation in the early years; and (iii) in a small country context with diverse development challenges, a focused CPS/CPF, with less outcome indicators allows for a deeper engagement in intervention areas, thereby yielding stronger results. For Official Use Only CLR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group viii. IEG has the following additional lessons: (i) It is critical that the principle of selectivity is applied not only in the choice of sector, but also to other areas of the program. In the case of Belize, the Bank was strategic on its sector focus on natural resource and climate resilience where it has a comparative advantage, but its selectivity did not extend to the choice of focus areas and program objectives. The WBG’s interventions were also not well focused: only one of two lending operations was on climate resilience and four of five ASAs were in different sectors. IFC’s activities were also not on climate resilience; (ii) A well designed results framework requires appropriate and timely interventions that support the program objectives. In the case of Belize, the results framework was supported by interventions that were approved only at the end of the CPS (both lending and TA) and hence, were not likely to contribute to the achievement of program objectives during the CPS period. However, the results framework did not fully account for the contributions of an ongoing lending operation which delivered most of its results during the CPS period; (iii) The Performance Learning Review (PLR) is a critical milestone in the CPS implementation that needs to be effectively used, especially in cases where the results framework was not well developed. In the case of Belize, the program objectives had no baselines and targets. The PLR would have provided the opportunity to adjust the results framework, including providing for missing baselines and targets. 4. Strategic Focus Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 1. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program. Belize is a small and open, high middle income country with 42 percent of the population living in poverty. The real GDP growth declined from 3.7 percent in 2012 to 1.0 percent in 2015, on account of falling oil production and reduced output in its primary commodity sectors. In the Central America Region, Belize has both high income and high poverty. Underpinning the high poverty was the country’s vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters, which eroded gains from growth. The 2016 Systematic Country Diagnostic estimated annual losses from natural disasters at 4 percent of GDP, contributing to rising fiscal deficits and debt accumulation. Poverty and inequality are more dominant in rural Belize. Rural poverty in Belize reached 55 percent in 2009 compared to 28 percent in urban areas. Income inequality, which is also relatively high increased from 0.42 in 2009 to 0.53 in 2013. Poverty was not re-estimated during the CPS period. The CPS noted that the livelihood of the poor depended on land and natural resources. It is within this context of high growth and poverty that, the Bank selected the climate resilience and natural resources sector for the CPS. 2. The government’s medium to long term development strategies were articulated in the National Poverty Eradication Strategy and Action Plan, 2009-2013 (NPESAP), the Medium-Term Development Strategy, “Building Resilience against Social, Economic and Physical Vulnerabilities” (MTDS, 2010-2013), and Horizon 2030. Some of the priority areas in the government’s strategies include sustainable environment and natural resource management, environment and disaster risk management, macroeconomic and fiscal management, government transparency and accountability, growth and sustainability, and human development. The major challenges the country faced during the CPS preparation include natural disasters, terms of trade shocks, rising fiscal deficits and debt accumulation. 3. This is the first Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) following the Bank’s re-engagement in 2009 through an Interim Strategy Note (ISN-FY 09-11), after a long hiatus (2001-2009). The Bank suspended its program in the country in 2001 due to fiscal and governance concerns. The Bank re- engaged Belize in 2009 with a two-year interim strategy note (ISN) followed by the CPS to reinforced its commitment to a productive dialogue. The Bank’s strategy addressed the natural resources related disasters that faced Belize. The focus areas of the CPS were aligned with the government’s strategies. The CPS aimed at mainstreaming natural resources and climate resilience into government policies, strengthening capacity on natural resource management and making some key investments climate resilient. These strategies directly addressed one of the key challenges the government faced during the period. For Official Use Only CLR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group 4. Relevance of Design. The focus areas were broadly in line with the government ’s priorities but the program objectives were too broad and could not be fully achieved using the available Bank interventions. The Bank’s contributions to the program’s objectives were difficult to ascertain in many cases because of the lack of clear links between the program objectives and WBG interventions. The WBG interventions (lending and ASA) were not fully aligned with the three focus areas of the CPS program and were rather fragmented covering other areas such as payments systems and conditional cash transfers, as in the case of the ASA. The key lending operation to support the program was approved at the end of the CPS period and therefore did not contribute to the results expected during the program. The IFC provided analytical and technical assistance support to the Central Bank of Belize which was not complementary to the CPS focus area on natural resources and climate resilience. Selectivity 5. The Bank’s program was selective with respect to the choice of a single sector but in practice, the Bank’s work covered other sectors. Within the selected CPS sector, the program was designed to cover three focus areas and eleven program objectives. The CPS indicates that the Bank selected the program based on three criteria (i) Bank’s comparative advantage in the natural resource sector (ii) the Bank’s capacity to leverage additional funds to complement its limited resources; and (iii) the fact that other priority sectors were supported by other donors. The Bank had comparative advantage and aimed at fostering stronger institutional capacity because it had worked in the natural resource sector under Bank executed trust funded projects, such as the Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC), a project which closed in 2009 and the Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment Initiative (CAPRA). The CPS reports that the Bank consulted extensively with government, private sector, civil society, and regional/ local development partners to guide the selection of the focus areas. Alignment 6. The CPS was prepared before the WBG adopted the twin goals in 2013. The CPS reported that the livelihood of the poor in Belize depended on land and natural resources. By addressing climate resilience and natural resources in the CPS program, the Bank’s interventions indirectly tackled poverty related challenges in Belize. 5. Development Outcome Overview of Achievement by Objective: 7. Following the shared approach, this review is based on the original results framework of the CPS. No Performance and Learning Review (PLR) was undertaken. With the exception of objective 8 (enhanced climate resilience of key infrastructure), none of the other outcome indicators had baselines and targets. Thus, the achievement of program objectives was assessed based on evidence from the supporting interventions. Finally, although Objective 10 was in the original CPS, it was not assessed in the CLR and no explanation was provided. This review will include an assessment of Objective 10. Focus Area I: Policies and Strategies for Mainstreaming of Natural Resources and Climate Resilience. 8. Focus area I had two objectives: (i) Principles of environmental sustainability/climate resilience are incorporated into development planning; and (ii) Improved coordination on climate change across sectors. The two objectives were supported by Non-Lending Technical Assistance (NLTA) for Natural Resources for Climate Resilient Growth (FY11) which was later dropped and replaced with the Belize Sustainable Natural Resource Management. The contributions from the European Union funded Global Climate Change Alliance grant (€2.9 million) managed by the UNDP were also noted as parallel financing by the CPS. For Official Use Only CLR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group Objective 1: Principles of environmental sustainability/climate resilience are incorporated into development planning. 9. This objective was measured by two indicators: (i) Published Act/approved bills and (iii) Natural resources wealth valuation/accounting undertaken for consideration within the national development agenda. The CLR reports that the National Climate Change Policy, Strategy and Action Plan 2015- 2025 was adopted by the Cabinet. It also reports that the National Protected Areas Act and Protected Areas Conservation Trust Act were approved in November 2015. The Bank’s contributions could not be verified from the project documents supporting this objective. Additional sources of information from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) and the Belize National Assembly confirmed the adoption of the action plan by the cabinet and approval of the two acts. Additional information also indicates that the Bank supported the preparation of the Belize 2014-2024 National Environmental Policy and Strategy, which presumably contributed to the adoption of the Action Plan and preparation of the two Acts. With respect to the second indicator, information from the WDI indicates that there is a national resource accounting valuation for Belize. The CLR reports that progress was made in raising awareness through presentations, trainings and workshops, but additional steps are needed before the natural resource accounting can be fully integrated into Belize’s planning process. On balance, there is some evidence that the Bank contributed to this objective. This objective was Mostly Achieved. Objective 2. Improved coordination on climate change across sectors. 10. The objective was measured by one indicator: functioning inter-ministerial Steering Committee as demonstrated by regular meetings and follow-up actions taken. The CLR reports that the inter- ministerial Belize National Climate Change Committee (BNCCC) was established with members from all related government ministries and agencies, private sector, civil society, and academia, and it is fully functional. The BNCCC is a result of the coordinated efforts between the WBG (through the NLTA) and the UNDP (through the Global Climate Change Alliance grant). The CLR reports that the committee meets quarterly and the Bank focused on filling analytical gaps, plus consensus building efforts which are difficult to validate. The government of Belize’s web site confirms the establishment of the BNCCC, but there is no information about the issues discussed during these meetings nor the follow up actions taken at the meetings. Overall, the BNCCC was established to meet quarterly but there is no indication of its effectiveness in improving coordination across sectors. This objective was Mostly Achieved. 11. With two objectives rated Mostly Achieved, this focus area was Moderately Satisfactory. Focus Area II: Institutional capacity strengthening for natural resource management and climate change 12. Focus area II had five objectives: (i) Enhanced effectiveness of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) System (ii) Enhanced human resilience and capital for a natural resource-based economy (iii) Strengthened capacity for compliance monitoring and enforcement of key agencies responsible for environment in Belize (iv) Strengthened institutions for implementing climate resilience measures (v) Better preparedness through improved disaster risk management institutions. These objectives were supported by four operations: Natural Resources for Climate Resilient Growth (NRCRG), the Management and Protection of Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs)Project, the Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation Project, and the Climate Resilient Infrastructure Project. Objective 3: Enhanced effectiveness of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) System. 13. The indicators for this objective were: (i) the number of people certified and (ii) the number of investment projects with EIAs. The CLR reports that the EIA process and a protocol for enhanced environmental screening and scoping are still underway. The latest ISR of the KBAs Project indicates that 49 staff were trained in enforcement and forest fire reduction techniques and that some fire- fighting equipment had been acquired. But none of the trained people were certified through the EIA system. Additional information received from the country team indicates that the Bank had undertaken a country-wide stocktaking and mapping exercise of natural resource management and climate For Official Use Only CLR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group resilience interventions, and completed a gap analysis required for establishing the EIA system. However, the certification program is not in place and no people were trained and investments were not certified. On balance, this objective was Partially Achieved. Objective 4: Enhanced human resilience and capital for a natural resource based economy. 14. The indicator for this objective was to adopt an education strategy that improves the system’s capacity to produce skills relevant for a natural resource based economy. The CLR reports that the government requested the Bank to concentrate its capacity building funds on strengthening the knowledge/skills of officials at the municipal level to enable them undertake their core functions. As a result, more than 220 staff from Town and City Councils were trained in municipal development, governance, revenue enhancement, municipal finance, and project management. This training did not contribute to the achievement of the original objective. Given that a PLR was not undertaken that would allow the change in objective, this objective was Not Achieved. Objective 5: Strengthened capacity for compliance monitoring and enforcement by key agencies responsible for environment in Belize. 15. The indicator for this objective was a functional national entity(is) with technical and fiduciary capacity to access climate funds and implement measures. The CLR reports that the KBAs project enabled the key environment agencies to conduct monitoring and compliance activities and consultation with local communities in remote forested areas, and to appraise EIAs. The CLR also reports that the project strengthened surveillance, monitoring, and enforcement in three targeted areas. The ISR of the KBAs project reports that two out of 20 government institutions had been provided with capacity-building to improve management of forest resources. The training was different from the targeted training on technical and fiduciary capacity envisaged by the CPS. Additional information provided by the country team indicates that two government institutions received fiduciary and technical capacity to access the Readiness grant funds. IEG confirms that Belize was able to access some trust funds including the Readiness grant (TF018492 and TF018489), Climate Adaptation (TF018449) and KBA (TF016773). Overall, there is evidence of technical and fiduciary capacity building of two key national agencies that enabled them to access climate funds. On balance, this objective was Mostly Achieved. Objective 6: Strengthened institutions for implementing climate resilience measures 16. This objective had two indicators: (i) number of staff in key agencies trained and equipped with better assessment and compliance monitoring tools and capacities; and (ii) number of communities organized as part of national emergency response organization. The CLR reports that the Management and Protection of Key Biodiversity Areas Project trained 25 people in conflict resolution in sustainable forest and protected area management. It also reports that some engineers within the Ministry of Works, Transport and planners from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Immigration were trained on disaster risk management. The CLR does not report on the number of communities that were organized as part of national emergency response organizations. The latest ISR of the KBAs project reports that 49 staff (of 50) have been trained in enforcement and forest fire reduction techniques and two government institutions (of 20) were provided capacity building to improve management of forest resources. It also reports that staff were trained in conflict resolution but no numbers were provided. The Bank also facilitated the participation of Belize in the Central American Probabilistic Risk Initiative which involved the training of local personnel on post disaster needs assessment methodology. On balance, this objective was Partially Achieved. Objective 7: Better preparedness through improved disaster risk management institutions 17. This objective had one indicator: number of functioning communication nodes forming part of the national system. The CLR reports that communication nodes had not yet been created. It further notes that operational funds are now available for the government to have created new protocols for emergency declarations to better manage disaster risks. The last ISR of the supporting project does not report on the communication nodes nor the government having created new protocols from the available operational funds. This objective was Not Achieved. For Official Use Only CLR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group 18. With two objectives Not Achieved, two Partially Achieved and one Mostly Achieved, Focus Area II was Unsatisfactory. Focus Area III: Investments to strengthen climate resilience 19. Focus Area III had four objectives: (i) enhanced climate resilience of key infrastructure, (ii) increased ecosystem resilience to climate change impact, (iii) strengthened legal and administrative framework for protected areas, and (iv) increased human resilience to climate change impacts. These objectives were supported by the following operations: Municipal Development Project (FY11), the Climate Resilient Infrastructure Project (FY15), Management and Protection of Key Biodiversity Areas in Belize project (FY15), BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation project (FY15), and JSDF Sustainable Natural Resource-based Livelihoods project (FY12). Objective 8: Enhanced climate resilience of key infrastructure 20. This objective had three indicators: (i) number of bridges, schools, hospitals, shelters, and government buildings climate-proof; (ii) km of drainage financed under the project- selected municipalities; (iii) km of drainage financed under the project- local road infrastructure. The CLR reports that no progress has been made under indicator (i) since the project supporting this indicator is in its early stage of implementation. However, significant progress has been made under indicators (ii) and (iii) under the Municipal Development Project. The latest ISR of the Municipal Development Project reports that 33.7km drainage were financed (against the target of 3 km); 14.85 km. non-rural roads were rehabilitated (against the target of 4 km). There is no indication that the drainage and roads were “climate proofed”. Given that the objective was about climate resilience, and the relevant indicator was not achieved, but taking into account the achievements on indicators (ii) and (iii), this objective was Partially Achieved. Objective 9: Increased ecosystem resilience to climate change impact 21. The indicator for this objective was: area (ha) rehabilitated and or under sustainable management. The CLR reports that the projects supporting this objective were still in the process of identifying rehabilitation activities by the end of the CPS period. This objective was Not Achieved. Objective 10: Strengthened legal and administrative framework for protected areas. 22. This objective had one indicator: number of people (local labor) employed in ecosystem restoration activities. The CLR did not rate this objective, although this objective was included in the CPS. The last ISR of the KBAs project does not report any progress on the number of people employed in ecosystem restoration activities. This Objective was Not Achieved. Objective 11: Increased human resilience to climate change impacts 23. This objective had one indicator: number of households facilitated to engage in sustainable livelihood activities. The CLR reports that 600 members (153 households) of beneficiary groups were engaged in sustainable livelihoods sub-projects, while 928 people (about 237 households) benefitted from training on developing and managing sustainable livelihood activities. The last ISR (rated MU) of the relevant project supporting this objective reports that 1,528 people had benefited from the project compared to the target of 3,250 by November 2016. Information from the country team confirmed that human resilience to the impact of climate change had been increased in 25 targeted communities located in 6 districts in Belize (November 2014 ISR of JSDF sustainable natural resource based livelihood project confirmed the results). On balance, this objective was Partially Achieved. 24. With two objectives Not Achieved and two Partially Achieved, Focus Area III was Unsatisfactory, on balance. Overall Assessment and Rating 25. On balance, IEG rates the development outcome as Unsatisfactory. Of the eleven objectives, three were Mostly Achieved, four were Partially Achieved and four objectives were rated Not Achieved. The three objectives that were mostly achieved supported the preparation of the For Official Use Only CLR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group National Environmental Policy and Strategy, built technical and fiduciary capacity of national entities to access climate funds, and created awareness on environmental sustainability issues. Also, the Bank contributed to the establishment of the Belize inter-ministerial National Climate Change Committee to improve coordination on climate change with members across different sectors, an indication of the government’s commitment to dialogue on natural resources. In other focus areas where the outcomes were partially achieved, the program supported various capacity building efforts on climate resilience such as forest fire reduction techniques and conflict resolution, building of drainages on local roads and training of communities on sustainable livelihood activities. Also, stocktaking and mapping exercises, and gap analysis were undertaken which are critical steps towards achieving the objective of enhancing the effectiveness of the EIA system. In general, the lack of baselines and targets made the assessment extremely difficult. Hence, the achievements were based on project level outputs/outcomes supporting the individual objectives. The Bank’s contributions to the program’s achievements were also difficult to ascertain in many cases because of the lack of clear links between the program objectives and the WBG interventions. The contributions of the development partners were also not well articulated in the results framework, raising the issue of attribution. Overall, the design of the CPS was ambitious and did not take into account the time horizon for supporting projects to achieve results. Objectives CLR Rating IEG Rating Focus Area I: Policies and strategies for mainstreaming of natural resources and climate Mostly Achieved Moderately Satisfactory resilience Objective 1: Principles of environmental sustainability/climate resilience are incorporated into Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved development planning Objective 2: Improved coordination on climate change Achieved Mostly Achieved across sectors Focus Area II: Institutional capacity strengthening for natural resource management and climate Mostly Achieved Unsatisfactory change Objective 3: Enhanced effectiveness of the Partially Achieved Partially Achieved Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) System Objective 4: Enhanced human resilience and capital for Not Achieved Not achieved a natural resource-based economy Objective 5: Strengthened capacity for compliance monitoring and enforcement of key agencies Achieved Mostly Achieved responsible for environment in Belize. Objective 6: Strengthened institutions for implementing Achieved Partially Achieved climate resilience measures Objective 7: Better preparedness through improved Partially Achieved Not achieved disaster risk management institutions Focus Area III: Investments to strengthen climate Partially Achieved Unsatisfactory resilience Objective 8: Enhanced climate resilience of key Partially Achieved Partially Achieved infrastructure Objective 9: Increased ecosystem resilience to climate Not Achieved Not Achieved change impact Objective 10: CPS Objective 10: Strengthened legal Not rated by CLR Not Achieved and Administrative framework for Pas Objective 11: Increased human resilience to climate Achieved Partially Achieved change impacts For Official Use Only CLR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group 6. WBG Performance Lending and Investments 26. During the CPS period, there were two active IBRD investment lending operations totaling US$45.0 million. In addition, there were eight trust funded/grant financed activities of which five focused on natural resource management and conservation, two on health, and one on capacity building on procurement for US$18.3 million. None of the IBRD projects and trust funded operations closed during the implementation of the CPS. 27. The performance of the Bank’s active portfolio compared well with its comparators (LAC and Bank-wide). However, the Bank’s portfolio in Belize was quite small: at the end of the CPS, there were 6 active projects (including two IBRD funded projects and four trust funded operations), or an average of four projects during the review. Belize project at risk was 8.3 percent (in terms of number of projects) and 3.3 percent (in net commitments) compared to LAC’s 21.7 percent (number of projects) and 19 percent (in commitments). Bank-wide average was 20 percent. In terms of disbursement ratio, Belize also compared well at 23.9 percent versus LAC (21.5 percent) and Bank wide average (21 percent). The ISRs for the active projects were generally MS or better. The two IBRD operations were rated MS or better while with the eight trust funded operations, four were rated MS or better and two were moderately unsatisfactory and two were not rated. None of the projects closed during the CPS period. 28. During the review period (FY12-FY15), IFC only had a short-term trade finance guarantee operation with one of the major banks with a total net commitment US$7.26 million, with no IFC loan and equity investment projects in the country. During FY16, IFC did not extend any trade finance guarantee. 29. There were no MIGA guarantees during the CPS period. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 30. During the CPS period, IBRD delivered one economic and sector work (ESW) on the financial sector assessment program (FSAP) for Belize and four TA on a range of topics including payments system, municipal finance, conditional cash transfers and sustainable resource management. The FSAP for Belize was at the request of the government and a joint Bank-Fund work. The TA on sustainable natural resource management fed into the production of the Belize National Environmental Policy and Strategy (2014-2024). However, not all AAA work directly contributed to the focus areas of the CPS. The CLR did not indicate whether the TA outside the focus areas were intended to lay the groundwork for its future engagement. All the trust funded ESW were completed within the CPS period but only one out of four products was delivered to the client and updated in the operations portal. 31. During the review period, IFC had only one advisory service (AS). The AS supported a new SME business as well as expansion of its SME portfolio to a bank in Belize, which IFC provided a trade finance guarantee. IEG validated this project and gave it a ‘Mostly Successful’ rating for Development Effectiveness. The project met most of its development results and surpassed its quantitative targets and outcomes in terms of SME loan portfolio. Results Framework 32. The CPS results framework focused on one of the critical challenges confronting the country: natural resources and climate change. The focus areas were logically structured (policies, institution building and investments) and the program objectives tried to address the needs and priorities of the country. However, the Bank’s interventions were rather limited compared to the program’s three focus areas and eleven objectives that would be executed in four years. 33. The results framework had significant shortcomings. There were major problems in the design of the indicators. With the exception of objective 8, all the program objectives had no baselines and targets which made it difficult to assess the additionality of the Bank’s interventions and the level of For Official Use Only CLR Review 10 Independent Evaluation Group program achievements. Some of the objectives could have been dropped or combined with others. (For example objective 10 did not fit well under focus area III and objective 4 could have been combined with objective 11 under focus area III). The Bank did not prepare a PLR which was a missed opportunity to retrofit and update a flawed results framework. The CPS was not designed as a joint Bank-IFC strategy. Hence, the results framework of the CPS did not include any IFC activities. During the period, IFC’s activities did not support any of the three focus areas and program objectives. Overall, the results framework could have been better designed. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 34. The Bank’s limited engagement in Belize made it imperative for it to have an effective coordination with other development partners. During the design of the CPS, the Bank consulted several development partners including the European Union (EU), Inter-American Development Bank, United Nations Development Program (UNDP), Japan, United Kingdom (UK), and other bilateral donors to determine the areas of the government strategy that needed more support. These development partners were duly acknowledged in both the CPS and CLR to have played a pivotal role in assisting the Bank to narrow its work to the climate resilience and natural resources sector. The consultation process included an assessment of the potential gaps in Belize’s strategic development plans. The CLR notes that the Bank project teams maintained close links with donors in the same or related areas. The Bank also consulted with key civil society groups and the private sector through a public consultative process. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 35. During the review period, there were no investment operations that closed and were validated by IEG. The CLR notes that compliance with the safeguard policies was effective in all projects. It also notes that, Belize had a limited experience with Bank operations and a weak implementation capacity in areas such as procurement and financial management. The Bank provided training and project level support to some government employees. Ownership and Flexibility 36. The CPS reports that the Bank engaged broadly with government counterparts during the design stage of the CPS and more intensely with the key government Institutions such as the Office of the Prime Minister, Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Natural Resources. The Bank’s engagement with the government evolved around identifying critical areas of work and narrowing it down to specifics. The CLR reports a good interaction between the Bank and government during the implementation of the CPS which helped the Bank to respond to changing priorities of the government. For instance, the Bank showed flexibility when it changed objective four midstream because the government requested it to redirect the support to finance training for municipal staff. However, the Bank did not undertake a PLR to reflect the government’s changing priorities and retrofit the results framework to align with the implementation challenges on the ground. WBG Internal Cooperation 37. The CPS was not a joint Bank and IFC product. During the CPS preparation, IFC was not mentioned as part of stakeholders consulted by the Bank during its consultative process. The internal cooperation seems rather limited compared to the extensive external process. According to the CPS, IFC had four pillars, of which one was climate resilience, the Bank’s main focal area. In reality, IFC’s activities were limited to its financial market operations. There was also no indication that the two institutions collaborated during the implementation of the CPS. The work of IFC was not part of the results framework. Risk Identification and Mitigation 38. The CPS identified five relevant risks which could affect the Bank’s work as follows: high debt risk, financial sector risk, implementation risk, natural hazards risk and political risk. These risks were broadly relevant to the situation in Belize. The CLR reports that the principal risks were Belize’s limited experience with Bank operations and weak implementation capacity in areas such as procurement and financial management. The Bank put in place mitigation measures such as providing For Official Use Only CLR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group implementation support and training for affected staff. However, the CLR reports high staff turnover in the area of procurement as a factor that affected implementation. In 2012 and 2015, Belize had parliamentary elections which was originally envisaged to be of low risk. The elections did not lead to a change in government but the CLR reports that it led to realignment of Ministries which affected pipeline projects. In general, the Bank identified the appropriate risks and put in place mitigation measures for those it could control during the review period. However, the mitigation measures for the political risks were out of the scope and capacity of the Bank. Overall Assessment and Rating 39. IEG rates WBG performance as Fair. The Bank selected a priority area of the government and used its limited capacity in a fairly strategic manner. The lending instruments were limited and most of the AAA were trust funded. The Bank reported an extensive consultation process with external stakeholders (including the government) but rather limited internal consultation, especially with IFC. The Bank was responsive to changes demanded by the government but did not use internal processes to update its objectives through the PLR. The risks were appropriately identified but some of the mitigation measures were out of the scope and capacity of the Bank. There were significant design issues with the results Matrix which could have been corrected during a PLR, which was not undertaken. The results framework did not have baselines and targets in all or most cases. The program objectives were broad and dispersed relative to the Bank’s interventions. Overall, many indicators were not measurable while others were process indicators that were difficult to measure without targets. 7. Assessment of CLR Completion Report 40. The CLR presentation was broadly consistent with the CPS objectives and results framework. The CLR was clear, concise, and outlined issues quite well. The CPS had no baselines and the CLR retrofitted baselines and targets to influence its assessment but did not provide sufficient explanation for its approach. It did not explain the reason for dropping and replacing the Natural Resources for Climate Resilient Growth NLTA project (FY11). The CLR ratings were not in line with the shared approach. For instance, even though some of the indicators could not be verified the CLR rated them anyway, such as objective six and other indicators for which the CLR retrofitted targets and rated. One objective was not included in the discussion (objective 10) although this was one of the objectives listed in the CPS. The CLR was less helpful in making clear attribution in areas where the Bank’s work was limited. 8. Findings and Lessons 41. IEG concurs with some of the lessons presented in the CLR. These are: (i) interventions to support Belize resilience to climate change and natural hazards require strong coordination across ministries, government agencies, donor partners, and other stakeholders; (ii) projects that support municipalities or community-based activities require a long gestation period, and realistic estimates of the pace of implementation in the early years; and (iii) in a small country context with diverse development challenges, a focused CPS/CPF, with less outcome indicators allows for a deeper engagement in intervention areas, thereby yielding stronger results. 42. IEG has the following additional lessons: (i) It is critical that the principle of selectivity is applied not only in the choice of sector, but also to other areas of the program. In the case of Belize, the Bank was strategic on its sector focus on natural resource and climate resilience where it has a comparative advantage, but its selectivity did not extend to the choice of focus areas and program objectives. The WBG’s interventions were also not well focused: only one of two lending operations was on climate resilience and four of five ASAs were in different sectors. IFC’s activities were also not on climate resilience; (ii) A well designed results framework requires appropriate and timely interventions that support the program objectives. In the case of Belize, the results framework was supported by interventions that were approved only at the end of the CPS (both lending and TA) and hence, were not likely to contribute to the achievement of program objectives during the CPS period. However, the results framework did not fully account for the contributions of an ongoing lending For Official Use Only CLR Review 12 Independent Evaluation Group operation which delivered most of its results during the CPS period; (iii) The Performance Learning Review (PLR) is a critical milestone in the CPS implementation that needs to be effectively used, especially in cases where the results framework was not well developed. In the case of Belize, the program objectives had no baselines and targets. The PLR would have provided the opportunity to adjust the results framework, including providing for missing baselines and targets. Annexes CLR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Belize Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives, FY 12-15 Annex Table 2: Belize Planned and Actual Lending, FY12-FY15 Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Belize, FY12-FY15 Annex Table 4: Belize Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY12-15 Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Belize, FY12-15 * Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Belize and Comparators, FY12-15 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Belize and Comparators, FY12-15 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Belize, FY12-15 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Belize, FY12-15 Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Belize, FY12 - FY15 Annex Table 12: List of IFC Advisory Services for Belize Annex Table 13: IFC net commitment activity in Belize, FY12 - FY15 Annexes CLR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Belize Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives (FY 12-15) CPS FY12-FY15: Focus Area I: Policies and Strategies Actual Results IEG Comments for Mainstreaming of (as of current month/year) natural resources and climate resilience CPS Objective 1: Principles of environmental sustainability/climate resilience are incorporated into development planning Indicator (i): Published As reported in the CLR, the National Climate The CPS did not specify a Act/approved bills Change Policy, Strategy and Action Plan targeted number of (NCCPSAP) 2015-2025 was adopted by the published act/approved Cabinet - information retrieved from Belize’s bills. The CLR reported contribution under the United Nations Framework that “Baselines and targets Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) will be developed as confirms it. specific activities are The CLR also reports that the National Protected identified.” The Bank Areas Act and Protected Areas Conservation supported the preparation Trust Act were approved in November 2015. of Belize National Information from Belize National Assembly Environmental Policy and confirms this (see report and law amendment). Strategy (2014-2024). The CLR reports that the Natural Resources for Climate Resilient Growth NLTA (P123740, FY11) supported this outcome, even though it was dropped and replaced by Belize Sustainable Natural Resource Management TA. Mostly Achieved Indicator (ii): Natural The CLR reports that the NCRIP and GSDS are resources wealth to include natural capital accounting during their The CLR reports that the Major valuation/accounting implementation but that additional steps are Natural Resources for Outcome undertaken for needed before natural capital accounting is fully Climate Resilient Growth Measures consideration within the integrated into Belize’s planning process. NLTA (P123740, FY11) national development The CLR also reports that progress was made in supported this outcome. agenda raising awareness within government of natural resource wealth valuation and accounting and WDI has information on that the following was supported: the natural resource - In May 2012, a Bank presentation was given accounting for Belize. We to senior government officials of an overview are unable to attribute this of the Wealth Accounting and Valuation of results to the Bank Ecosystem Services (WAVES). Country experiences on natural resource valuation and greening of GDP in Latin America and the Caribbean, were shared and encouraged the government to explore similar work. - In September 2013, the Bank supported a representative from the Ministry of Forestry, Fisheries and Sustainable Development to participate in the WAVES regional workshop in Bogota, Colombia with the objective of presenting the importance of Natural Capital Accounting as a tool to inform policy dialogue, with concrete policy examples. Mostly Achieved. Annexes CLR Review 16 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12-FY15: Focus Area I: Policies and Strategies Actual Results IEG Comments for Mainstreaming of (as of current month/year) natural resources and climate resilience CPS Objective 2: Improved coordination on climate change across sectors Indicator (i): Functioning The CLR reports that the inter-ministerial Belize No information was inter-ministerial Steering National Climate Change Committee (BNCCC) available to ascertain Committee as was established with members from all related whether follow up action demonstrated by regular government ministries and agencies, private were taken by BNCCC. meetings and follow-up sector, civil society, and academia and is fully actions taken. functional, with meetings held quarterly and that the establishment of the BNCCC is a result of the coordinated efforts between the WBG (through the NLTA) and other donors. The CLR also reports that the Steering Committee has been established and is operational for the JSDF Livelihoods, GEF KBAs, and the Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (MCCAP) project. Some evidence of the establishment of BNCCC was found at: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/do cuments/1012belize.pdf Mostly Achieved. CPS FY12-FY15: Focus Area II: Institutional capacity Actual Results strengthening for IEG Comments (as of current month/year) natural resource management and climate change CPS Objective 3: Enhanced effectiveness of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) System Indicator (i): Number of The CLR reports that the Natural Resources for IEG received evidence people certified, with Climate Resilient Growth NLTA (P123740, FY11) from the Bank that (a) a EIAs; number of supported this outcome. The draft report prepared country-wide stocktaking investment projects with under the NLTA, presenting the activities and mapping exercise of EIAs. undertaken under the NLTA to support the natural resources prioritization of natural resources management management (NRM) and Major and climate resilience interventions in Belize does climate resilience Outcome not present information related to EIAs. However, projects/activities in Belize, Measures two main activities were undertaken (stocktaking and (b) an initial gap and mapping exercise, and a gap analysis), as analysis to inform planning they were necessary requirements for establishing and prioritization for future the EIA system (see IEG comment). In addition, investments based on the the June 2014 national Environment Action Plan, stocktaking exercise were produced with bank’s assistance, included the undertaken. requirements for project proponents in their EIAs to address climate change vulnerabilities. Annexes CLR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12-FY15: Focus Area II: Institutional capacity Actual Results strengthening for IEG Comments (as of current month/year) natural resource management and climate change In addition, one of the objectives of the Management and Protection of Key Biodiversity Areas Project (P130474, FY15), aimed to establish an EIA certification system (see PAD). The CLR reports that the EIA Process, and a Protocol for enhanced environmental screening and scoping is still underway and that completion is estimated for September 2019 for the establishment of a standardized EIA system to be applied to future projects. Partially Achieved CPS Objective 4: Enhanced human resilience and capital for a natural resource based economy Indicator (i): Education The CLR reports that the Municipal Development The outcome indicator strategy that improves Project (P111928, FY11) was to contribute to this changed during the CPS the system’s capacity to outcome but that the focus shifted during CPS at the request of produce skills relevant implementation, from a focus on broad changes to government to build for a natural resource the country’s education system to build the skills capacity and strengthen based economy is needed for a natural resource-based economy. knowledge/skills of adopted The funds were eventually concentrated on municipal level officials. In strengthening the knowledge/skills of officials at the absence of a PLR, the the municipal level to undertake core functions. change was not Not achieved. formalized. CPS Objective 5: Strengthened capacity for compliance monitoring and enforcement by key agencies responsible for environment in Belize Indicator (i): Functional The CLR reports the contribution of the Some additional national entity(ies) with Management and Protection of Key Biodiversity information was provided technical and fiduciary Areas Project (P130474, FY15) and of the Marine to indicate that the Bank capacity to access Conservation and Climate Adaptation project built fiduciary and climate funds and (P131408, FY15) to this outcome and that the technical capacity of: a) implement measures Government of Belize strengthened its capacity the Ministry of Agriculture, for compliance monitoring and enforcement on Fisheries, Forestry, environment. Environment and The CLR reports that project P130474 permitted sustainable Development the key environment agencies to conduct (MAFFESD); and b) the monitoring and compliance activities and Protected Areas consultation with local communities in remote Conservation Trust forested areas, and to appraise EIAs. The latest (PACT). ISR: MS (December 2016) reports the fire-fighting As a consequence, Belize equipment has been acquired and that 2 (out of a became eligible to access target of 20) government institutions were FCRPF REDD Readiness provided with capacity-building to improve Grant (Readiness grant management of forest resources – the end target (US$3.8 million - date is September 2019, after the end of the CPS TF018492, see The CLR also reports that the project P131408 agreement, and strengthened surveillance, monitoring, and TF018489), MCCAP – enforcement in the three targeted Marine Climate Adaptation Annexes CLR Review 18 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12-FY15: Focus Area II: Institutional capacity Actual Results strengthening for IEG Comments (as of current month/year) natural resource management and climate change Protected Areas, as reported in the latest ISR: S. (TF018449, that supported Additional information provided by the country the Marine Conservation team indicate that they provided capacity building and Climate Adaptation support which increased PACT fiduciary capacity; project approved in FY15), as a result, PACT was selected to manage the and KBA (TF016773, fiduciary aspects of the FCPF REDD Readiness project P130474 approved grant (P152415, and TF018492, see agreement in FY15) and the letter) and selected as the implementing agency of MAFFESD successfully KBA and the Marine Conservation and Climate prepared the Readiness Adaptation Project (MCCAP, see PAD Preparation Proposal. Mostly Achieved. CPS Objective 6: Strengthened institutions for implementing climate resilience measures Indicator (i): Number of The CLR reports the contribution of the The CLR reported that staff in key agencies Management and Protection of Key Biodiversity “Baselines and targets will trained and equipped Areas Project (P130474, FY15). The latest ISR: be developed as specific with better assessment MS (December 2016) reports that 49 staff have activities are identified.” and compliance been trained in enforcement and forest fire monitoring tools and reduction techniques for forest fire rapid response capacities teams. The CLR reports that 25 people were trained in conflict resolution in sustainable forest and protected area management, achieving the target for December 2015; the ISR: MS for June 2016 reports that staff was trained for conflict resolution but does not report a number. The CLR also reports that some engineers within the Ministry of Works, Transport and planners from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Immigration have been trained on topics relating to disaster risk management and integrating climate resilience into infrastructure projects, and to build institutional capacity to better manage the potential fiscal impacts of disasters thanks to the Hazard and Risk Assessment Framework for Belize: Prioritization of an Investment Plan (with support from the GFDRR, see public information); the Caribbean Risk Information Program (also supported by the GFDRR, see information); and the Caribbean Disaster Risk Financing TA (see public information). Also: the GFDRR Country note for Belize (2010) reports the initiatives supported by donors in the country on DRM, but those are not specific to the World Bank. Partially Achieved. Annexes CLR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12-FY15: Focus Area II: Institutional capacity Actual Results strengthening for IEG Comments (as of current month/year) natural resource management and climate change Indicator (ii): Number of The CLR does not report information on the The CPS had no baseline communities organized number of communities that were organized as and targets. as part of national part of national emergency response emergency response organizations. The review of the projects reported organization in the CLR to have contributed to Outcome 6 does not permit to verify progress for this indicator. Not verified. CPS Objective 7: Better preparedness through improved disaster risk management institutions Indicator (i): Number of This indicator was supported by the Climate The CPS had no baseline functioning Resilient Infrastructure Project (P127338, FY15). and targets. communication nodes The CLR mentions that the creation of a network forming part of the of communication nodes has not yet been Although, the indicator national system completed. The last ISR: MS before the end of the was not achieved, the CPS period (April 2016) does not report country team reported that information for this indicator to verify any a geographic database progress. was developed using Not achieved. Google Earth service and a Linked-In Group was established to permit interaction of the Ministry. The information the Synthesis Report (April 2013) of the NLTA on Natural Resource Management and Climate Resilience) CPS FY12-FY15: Focus Area III: Actual Results Investments to IEG Comments (as of current month/year) strengthen climate resilience CPS Objective 8: Enhanced climate resilience of key infrastructure Indicator (i): No. of This indicator was supported by the Municipal There were no baselines bridges, schools, Development Project (P111928, FY11) and by the and targets. hospitals, shelters, Climate Resilient Infrastructure Project (P127338, Major Government buildings FY15). The CLR reports that some progress was Outcome climate-proofed made in climate proofing some infrastructure. Measures The last ISR: MS for project P127338 does not report any progress on physical infrastructure – as reported in the CLR, the project is still in early implementation stage. Not Achieved. Indicator (ii): Km of The last ISR: S for the Municipal Development drainage financed Project (P111928, FY11) reports, as of Annexes CLR Review 20 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12-FY15: Focus Area III: Actual Results Investments to IEG Comments (as of current month/year) strengthen climate resilience under the project – in September 2016 that 33.70 km of drainage were selected Municipalities financed. (while the CLR reports 19.26km). Partially Achieved. Baseline: 0 Target: 3 Indicator (ii): Km of The last ISR: S for the Municipal Development drainage financed Project (P111928, FY11) reports, as of under the project- September 2016 that 14.85km of non-rural roads improved local road were rehabilitated (while the CLR reports infrastructure 10.78km); 140 intersections were improved and 214 traffic signs were financed . Baseline: 0 Partially Achieved. Target: 4 CPS: Objective 9: Increased ecosystem resilience to climate change impacts Indicator (i): Area (ha) This indicator was supported by the Marine rehabilitated and/or Conservation and Climate Adaptation project under sustainable (P131408, FY15). The last ISR: S reports no management progress on the indicator. As reported in the CLR, by the end-CPS period, the project was still in the process of identifying rehabilitation activities, with results expected only at the end of 2016. This indicator was also supported by Management and Protection of Key Biodiversity Areas in Belize (P130474, FY15). The last ISR: MS for project P130474 reports no progress, as of December 2016, for the restoration of forests. Not achieved. CPS Objective 10: Strengthened legal and Administrative framework for PAs Indicator (i): Number of This indicator was supported by Management and The CLR did not report people (local labor) Protection of Key Biodiversity Areas in Belize employment data. employed in ecosystem (P130474, FY15). The last ISR: MS reports no restoration activities progress, as of December 2016, for the number of people engaged in sub-projects supporting sustainable harvesting and marketing. Not achieved. CPS Objective 11: Increased human resilience to climate change impacts Indicator (i): Number This indicator was supported by the JSDF The CPS does not report of households Sustainable Natural Resource-based Livelihoods a baseline or target to facilitated to engage in project (P132098, FY12). assess results. sustainable livelihood The CLR reports that approximately 600 members activities (153 households) of beneficiary groups have been No other ISR, right after engaged in sustainable livelihoods sub-projects, the end of the CPS period and that 928 people (about 237 households) (June 2015) was available benefitted from training necessary for developing except the ISR prepared and managing sustainable livelihood activities. in October 2016. The March 2016 ISR: MS (October 2016) reports that, as of February 2016, 1,154 people were Annexes CLR Review 21 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12-FY15: Focus Area III: Actual Results Investments to IEG Comments (as of current month/year) strengthen climate resilience direct project beneficiaries, out of a target of 3,250 for November 2016. (1528 beneficiaries in June 2016 ISR) Additional information reported by the country team indicates that the project increased human resilience to climate change impacts in the 25 targeted communities located on all 6 districts of Belize (see November 2014 ISR: S reporting data for June 2014). Partially Achieved. Annexes CLR Review 22 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Belize Planned and Actual Lending, FY12-FY15 Proposed Approved Proposed Approved Closing Outcome Project ID Project Name Amount IBRD FY FY FY Rating (CPS) Amount Project Planned Under CPS 2012-2015 P127338 BZ (MST) Climate Resilient Infrast. 2013 2015 2020 30.0 LIR: MS Total Planned 0.0 30.0 Project Unplanned Under CPS 2012-2015 Total Unplanned 0.0 0.0 On-Going Project during the CPS period P111928 BZ Municipal Development 2011 2017 15.0 LIR: S Total On-Going 0.0 15.0 Source: Belize CPS and PR, WB Business Intelligence Table 2a.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 12/15/16 *LIR: Latest internal rating. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Belize, FY12-FY15 Country Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Fiscal year Output Type Belize P126831 FSAP Belize FY12 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) Proj ID Technical Assistance Fiscal year Output Type Belize P126380 Belize #10152 Payment Systems FY12 Not assigned Belize P127993 BZ PPIAF SNTA Municipal Finance FY13 Not assigned Belize P128067 BZ Sustainable Natural Resource Mgmt. FY15 Not assigned Belize P130885 Conditional Cash Transfers & HD NLTA FY13 Not assigned Source: WB Business Intelligence 12/15/16 Annexes CLR Review 23 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 4: Belize Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY12-15 Project Approval Closing Approved Outcome Countries Project name TF ID ID FY FY Amount ** Rating BZ Marine Conservation and Belize P131408 TF 18449 2015 2020 5,530,000 LIR: S Climate Adaptation Management and Protection of Key Belize P130474 TF 16773 2015 2020 6,085,600 LIR: MS Biodiversity Areas in Belize Management and Protection of Key Belize P130474 TF 13004 2013 2013 120,000 Biodiversity Areas in Belize JSDF BZ Promoting Sustainable Belize P132098 TF 12901 2013 2018 2,800,000 Natural Resource-based Livelihoods Belize P120349 BZ JSDF Improving Children Health TF 99168 2011 2016 2,752,894 Helping the Q’eqchi (Keck-chee) Belize P121004 Maya Thrive with Sustainable Forest TF 96992 2011 2014 200,000 Management BZ Influenza Detection and Belize P117604 TF 95644 2010 2012 501,744 Response (Standalone Trust Fund) Building Institutional Capacity of Belize P115046 Auditor General and Improving TF 94490 2009 2012 351,000 Quality of Public Procurement Total 18,341,238 Source: Client Connection as of 12/15/16 ** IEG Validates RETF that are 5M and above Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Belize, FY12-15 * Total Exit FY Country Proj ID Project name IEG Outcome IEG Risk to DO Evaluated ($M) Total 0.0 Source: AO Key IEG Ratings as of 12/19/16 * No project has closed and validated by IEG during the review period (FY12-15) Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Belize and Comparators, FY12-15 Total Total RDO % RDO % Outcome Outcome Region Evaluated Evaluated Moderate or Lower Moderate or Lower % Sat ($) % Sat (No) ($M) (No) Sat ($) Sat (No) Belize No project has closed during the review period. LCR ** 24,565.7 194 88.9 73.7 71.7 59.4 World 94,822.9 1,096 83.5 71.0 60.6 46.5 Source: WB AO as of 12/19/16 * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. ** LCR: Latin America and Caribbean Region Annexes CLR Review 24 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Belize and Comparators, FY12-15 Fiscal year 2012 2013 2014 2015 Ave FY12-15 Belize # Proj * 3 3 3 6 4 # Proj At Risk - - 1 - 0.3 % Proj At Risk - - 33.3 - 8.3 Net Comm Amt 20.6 20.6 20.6 62.2 31 Comm At Risk - - 2.8 - 1 % Commit at Risk - - 13.4 - 3.3 LCR** # Proj 346 332 315 291 321 # Proj At Risk 68 72 70 68 70 % Proj At Risk 19.7 21.7 22.2 23.4 21.7 Net Comm Amt 33,341.8 30,843.3 29,271.0 27,713.0 30,292 Comm At Risk 4,503.5 6,097.4 6,355.6 5,866.5 5,706 % Commit at Risk 13.5 19.8 21.7 21.2 19.0 World # Proj 2,029 1,964 2,048 2,022 2,016 # Proj At Risk 387 414 412 444 414 % Proj At Risk 19.1 21.1 20.1 22.0 20.6 Net Comm Amt 173,706.1 176,202.6 192,610.1 201,045.2 185,891 Comm At Risk 24,465.0 40,805.6 40,933.5 45,987.7 38,048 % Commit at Risk 14.1 23.2 21.3 22.9 20.3 Source: WB BI as of 12/15/16 * 4 Projects (P130474, P120349, P131408, P132098) out of 6 are under Trust Fund and all included in Table 4 ** LCR: Latin America and Caribbean Region Annexes CLR Review 25 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Belize, FY12-15 Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 Overall Result Belize Disbursement Ratio (%) 4.8 34.0 14.2 53.1 23.9 Inv Disb in FY 0.7 4.5 1.2 4.0 10.4 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 13.9 13.2 8.7 7.5 43.3 LCR Disbursement Ratio (%) 22.0 24.0 18.8 20.8 21.5 Inv Disb in FY 3,338.4 3,524.0 2,491.1 2,560.2 11,913.7 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 15,201.7 14,712.3 13,281.0 12,336.9 55,531.9 World Disbursement Ratio (%) 20.8 20.6 20.8 21.8 21.0 Inv Disb in FY 21,048.2 20,510.7 20,757.7 21,853.7 84,170.3 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 101,234.3 99,588.3 99,854.3 100,344.9 401,021.8 * Calculated as IBRD/IDA Disbursements in FY / Opening Undisbursed Amount at FY. Restricted to Lending Instrument Type = Investment. AO disbursement ratio table as of 12/15/16 ** LCR: Latin America and Caribbean Region Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Belize, FY12-15 Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer FY12 665,402.6 1,968,674.5 (1,303,271.9) 101,047.1 - (1,404,319.0) FY13 4,490,151.9 1,721,420.0 2,768,731.9 142,116.1 - 2,626,615.8 FY14 1,236,813.3 1,761,420.0 (524,606.7) 255,931.0 - (780,537.7) FY15 3,381,962.9 1,141,420.0 2,240,542.9 300,852.8 75,000.0 1,864,690.1 Report Total 9,774,330.8 6,592,934.5 3,181,396.2 799,947.0 75,000.0 2,306,449.3 World Bank Client Connection 12/1/16 Annexes CLR Review 26 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid Development Partners 2012 2013 2014 2015 Australia 0.18 0.05 0.55 0.18 Austria .. .. .. 0.02 Canada 0.24 0.15 0.09 0.22 Finland .. 0.03 .. .. Germany 0.02 0.1 0.04 0.02 Japan 1.44 1.22 1.3 1.88 Korea 0.07 0.76 0.34 0.21 New Zealand 0.03 .. .. .. Norway .. 0.17 0.16 .. Spain .. 0.01 .. .. United Kingdom 0.23 2.6 1.6 1.75 United States 1.83 11.67 2.57 1.83 DAC Countries, Total 4.05 16.76 6.65 6.11 EU Institutions 14.18 15.65 18.49 11.41 IDB Special Fund 1.38 1.42 2.05 0.39 Caribbean Development Bank [CarDB] 1.6 2.8 3.95 1.34 Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO] .. 0.34 .. .. International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] 0.18 0.16 0.07 0.15 International Labour Organization [ILO] 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.07 UNAIDS 0.07 0.07 .. .. UNDP 0.24 0.15 0.08 0.11 UNICEF 0.67 0.7 0.82 1.35 Adaptation Fund .. .. 1.12 .. Global Environment Facility [GEF] 1.34 1.95 1.87 1.87 Global Fund 1.54 1.45 0.1 2.84 OPEC Fund for International Development [OFID] 1.96 8.8 1.72 2.65 Multilateral, Total 23.24 33.57 30.34 22.18 Israel .. 0.01 .. 0.03 Kuwait (KFAED) -1.1 0.9 0.48 -1.04 Turkey .. 0.01 0.1 .. United Arab Emirates 0.03 0.02 .. .. Non-DAC Countries, Total -1.08 0.94 0.58 -1.01 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation .. 2 1.17 2.8 Private Donors, Total .. 2 1.17 2.8 Development Partners Total 26.21 51.27 37.56 27.29 Source: OECD Stat, [DAC2a] as of 12/1/16 Annexes CLR Review 27 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Belize, FY12 - FY15 Belize LCR World Series Name 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average 2012-2015 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 3.7 1.3 4.1 1.0 2.5 1.5 2.6 GDP per capita growth 1.4 (0.9) 1.9 (1.1) 0.3 0.0 1.4 (annual %) GNI per capita, PPP (current 7,520.0 7,590.0 7,800.0 8,020.0 7,732.5 0.0 14,797.9 international $) GNI per capita, Atlas method 4,260.0 4,340.0 4,430.0 4,490.0 4,380.0 0.0 10,637.1 (current US$) (Millions) Inflation, consumer prices 1.3 0.5 1.2 (0.9) 0.5 0.0 2.7 (annual %) Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of 15.0 15.4 15.5 14.3 15.1 0.0 3.9 GDP) Industry, value added (% of 20.2 19.1 18.6 18.3 19.0 0.0 28.1 GDP) Services, etc., value added 64.8 65.5 65.9 67.4 65.9 0.0 67.9 (% of GDP) Gross fixed capital formation 16.1 17.8 19.7 19.7 18.3 0.0 23.3 (% of GDP) Gross domestic savings (% of 15.5 12.7 15.4 15.2 14.7 0.0 24.5 GDP) External Accounts Exports of goods and services 65.3 65.2 67.2 63.4 65.3 0.0 30.2 (% of GDP) Imports of goods and services 63.8 67.0 70.9 71.7 68.4 0.0 29.6 (% of GDP) Current account balance (% (2.1) (4.5) (7.9) (10.0) -6.1 0.0 0.0 of GDP) External debt stocks (% of 82.3 82.8 81.4 81.7 82.0 0.0 0.0 GNI) Total debt service (% of GNI) 10.6 9.0 5.8 5.3 7.7 0.0 0.0 Total reserves in months of 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.1 3.9 0.0 13.2 imports Fiscal Accounts /1 General government revenue 26.4 28.7 29.0 28.1 28.0 (% of GDP) General government total 26.8 30.3 31.4 36.0 31.1 expenditure (% of GDP) General government net (0.4) (1.6) (2.4) (8.0) -3.1 lending/borrowing (% of GDP) General government gross 78.3 78.3 77.2 81.9 78.9 debt (% of GDP) Health Life expectancy at birth, total 69.9 70.0 70.1 .. 70.0 0.0 71.2 (years) Immunization, DPT (% of 98.0 95.0 95.0 94.0 95.5 0.0 85.3 children ages 12-23 months) Annexes CLR Review 28 Independent Evaluation Group Belize LCR World Series Name 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average 2012-2015 Improved sanitation facilities 90.2 90.6 90.5 90.5 90.5 0.0 66.7 (% of population with access) Improved water source (% of 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 83.4 population with access) Mortality rate, infant (per 15.5 15.1 14.6 14.2 14.9 0.0 33.2 1,000 live births) Education School enrollment, preprimary 46.5 49.1 50.2 - 36.5 74.4 43.0 (% gross) School enrollment, primary (% 113.8 112.0 111.7 - 84.4 110.4 105.2 gross) School enrollment, secondary 78.4 80.2 79.9 - 59.6 92.4 74.7 (% gross) Population Population, total 336,707 344,193 351,706 359,287 347,973 - 7,218,239,265 Population growth (annual %) 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 0.0 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 44.5 44.3 44.1 44.0 44.2 0.0 53.2 Source: DDP as of 12/19/16 *International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, November 2016 ** LCR: Latin America and Caribbean Region Annex Table 12: List of IFC Advisory Services for Belize Advisory Services Approved in FY12-15 Impl Impl Project Primary Business Project ID Project Name Total Funds, US$ Start FY End FY Status Line 589548 Atlantic Bank SME 2012 2014 Active FIG 333,930 Sub-Total 333,930 Annex Table 13: IFC net commitment activity in Belize, FY12 - FY15 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Trade Finance (TF) 1,139,824 1,726,825 2,706,194 1,696,446 7,269,289 Total 1,139,824 2,706,194 1,696,446 7,269,289 Source: IFC MIS as of 12/20/16