THE WorldBank IN INDIA VOL 15 / NO 2 SEPTEMBER 2016 INSIDE Green Revolution 2.0 India’s solar power story 1-4 On poverty and prosperity, lot done, lot to do 5-7 Development Dialogue: Sun set to descend on every Indian rooftop Enabling children to grow 8-10 ICR Update: Strengthening India’s Rural Credit Cooperatives Project 11-13 New Additions to the Public Information Center 14-23 I n many ways Gandhi was an early environmentalist. He believed in a self-sustaining rural life, walked long distances to the sea to make salt, and spun his own cotton yarn. Had he been alive today, he would Contact Information 24 certainly have made full use of India’s abundant sunshine to generate his own clean and renewable solar power. About the photograph: A barefoot solar engineer Today, India’s climate change mitigation strategy bears the unmistakable sharing her knowledge on how to make a solar lamp stamp of the father of the nation. For, India has set itself the extremely Photograph by ambitious goal of achieving a five-fold jump in renewable energy – from Abbie Trayler-Smith, 35 GW in 2010 to 175 GW by 2022. Photo courtesy: DFID-UK Of this, a sizeable segment – 100 GW – is around US 25 cents (Rs 15) per unit. This expected to be from solar, with 40 percent fell radically to less than US 7 cents (INR 5) of the total coming from just roof-top solar per unit when Madhya Pradesh and Andhra power alone. Pradesh recently launched their solar bids. Where once solar power was considered Not surprisingly, when this ambitious target untouchable by banks, it has now become a was first announced, there were several bankable technology. So much so that large naysayers. Let alone make the quantum leap conglomerates like Softbank have announced to 175 GW in just seven years’ time, India investments to the tune of $10 b in solar was nowhere close to meeting its original power over the coming years. target of 20 GW. Most programs were driven by state-based incentives. And, the slow Along with the fall in costs, India’s solar growth of demand meant that much of the power capacity has also grown exponentially. manufacturing capacity lay idle, or operated In just 6 years, capacity has grown from at exceptionally low capacities. less than 50 MW in 2010 to around 7GW in 2016 – a quantum 140 fold leap. Moreover, Paving the way for the increasing pace of state and national- transformation level procurement has meant that a further 10 GW of solar projects are in the pipeline. Since then, of course, India’s solar power This remarkable growth is being led by the story has taken off dramatically. In 2009, development of some of the largest solar when Gujarat first launched its solar policy parks in the world such as the Pavgada Solar and laid the foundation for the country’s Park in Karanataka (2,000 MW) and the Rewa first solar park, the cost of solar power was solar park in Madhya Pradesh (750 MW). 12 2 The World Bank in India • September 2016 Catalysing the roof-top solar for these consumers in metro cities range between US 12-24 cents per units market (8-15 INR) – compared to just US 9-10 cents While large-scale ground mounted solar (Rs 6-7) for solar power. And, there is ample power units have grown rapidly, the roof-top solar segment has been slow to take off. Until now, financing has been a key constraint for these developers. This is because commercial banks have refrained from lending to this segment, preferring to lend to the large-scale grid connected sector instead. The World Bank is providing a $625 million loan to support the Government of India’s program to generate electricity from widespread installation of rooftop solar photo-voltaic (PV). The project will finance the installation of at least 400 MW of Grid Connected Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic across India. In fact, the business case for roof-top solar power already exists, especially for industrial and commercial consumers. For them, roof-top solar power works out cheaper, since electricity tariffs The World Bank in India • September 2016 12 3 power for just a few hours a day, the answer is off-grid solar. However, this remains the most difficult segment to implement. Several private initiatives, including SELCO, Onergy, Boond, Mera Gao Power and Husk Power, have successfully tapped into this market, but scalability continues to be a challenge (incidentally, this phenomenon is not just limited to India). None of these companies have been able to expand their markets to more than a million households, and a business model which can be replicated has not yet emerged. Again, a major barrier has been financing. evidence globally, especially from the US As off-grid solar projects are not considered and Germany, to show that high volumes of bankable, commercial banks are not yet solar generation can be integrated efficiently ready to fund them. Nor do these projects into the power system through a variety of match the traditional requirements of venture business models. capitalists or private equity firms in terms Given these developments, we believe that of the returns they generate or their exit India is on the verge of a revolution in roof top timelines. solar power. In fact, the day is not far off when The government too has demonstrated roof top solar products will be sold as easily limited capacity to develop this market, both as TVs or cars. Consumers will then be able to in terms of financial and human resources. go into a shop and buy different brands and Instead, it often relies on support schemes capacities, or be approached by an agent who that are capital subsidy-oriented and which offers them a variety of loans to do so. are delivered through difficult-to-access Once solar power units become easy to channels. install, Indian households may finally start using their roof tops for generating much- Applying Gandhigiri to India’s needed solar power, instead of wasting this 21 Century energy crisis precious space in merely drying their laundry. So, how would Gandhi have dealt with this situation? No doubt he would have used the The continuing challenge of unique opportunity provided by both the roof off-grid solar top and off-grid solar segments to generate For the nearly 300 million people who live in electricity right in his own backyard, or villages with no access to electricity, or have rooftop, as the case may be. By following his example, Indian households too can not only generate their own power, but also make some money by selling their surplus to their neighbors, or even to an electricity company. They would then be following a slightly amended version of Gandhi’s ‘three monkey’ approach: generate your own power, (Change background colour as needed) consume your own power, and earn from your own power! That would be their best tribute to the far-sighted father of the nation. Contributed by Amit Jain, Energy Specialist, World Bank 12 4 The World Bank in India • September 2016 Pathways to Prosperity On poverty and prosperity, lot done, lot to do The rapid decline in India’s poverty levels in the recent decade augurs well for the country’s efforts to eradicate poverty. Though the decline was faster and more broad-based than in the preceding decades, examples from across the developing world suggest it could have been more inclusive and responsive to economic growth, says Ambar Narayan and Rinku Murgai, Lead Economists at the World Bank I ndia has made tremendous progress in reducing absolute poverty in the past two decades. The standard way to determine of households have seen their incomes grow at a slower pace than the population as a whole. On this measure of ‘shared prosperity’ whether a household is poor is to compare – or equitable improvement among all people its daily expenditure per capita to a minimum – India lags behind countries at a similar consumption threshold, or poverty line. stage of development. Although India ranked Based on India’s official line, the share of 16th among 51 middle income countries the population living in poverty was halved in average consumption growth during between 1994 and 2012, falling from 45 2005-2012, it ranked much lower – 27th – percent to 22 percent (figure 1). During this in consumption growth for the poorest 40 period, an astonishing 133 million people percent during this period. were lifted out of poverty. Moreover, the pace In many cases, when a country experiences of poverty reduction accelerated over time high growth, rapid poverty reduction quickly and was three times faster between 2005 follows. In India’s case, however, high and 2012 – the years for which the latest growth did not lead to as quick a decline in set of government data are available – than poverty as we would have expected. The in the previous decade. At this pace, the responsiveness of poverty to per capita fall in extreme poverty in India since 2005, GDP growth in India is lower than the pegged at $1.90 a day, 2011 PPP, matched or average for developing countries. A few exceeded the average rate of decline for the telling indicators reveal the extent of this developing world as a whole and the middle- divergence: while India ranked in the top 10 income countries as a group. percent of developing countries in per capita However, poverty reduction did not benefit all GDP growth during 2005-2012, it featured segments of the population equally. The fall in just above the 60th percentile in the rate of poverty levels could have been much higher poverty reduction during this period. And, if growth had been more inclusive. Notably, in general, this relationship between growth while consumption levels have increased and poverty reduction varied widely between rapidly in recent years, the poorest 40 percent states. The World Bank in India • September 2016 5 The sheer scale of poverty in the country current trend of slower poverty reduction remains sobering. In 2012, India was home to in the poorer states persists, poverty will 262 million poor (as defined by the $1.90 per become increasingly concentrated in a day international poverty line). Put differently, handful of lower income states. It is worth one in four people living in extreme poverty noting that in 2012, three large lower income across the world are Indians*. states alone (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh) accounted for 44 percent Poverty is closely inter-twined with of India’s poor. And, when we look beyond geography. The poor are still far more likely consumption poverty to other measures to be found in India’s villages which are home of deprivation, India’s picture looks more to 80 percent of the country’s poor. Moreover, challenging. We discuss this in a later article the poorer states are not catching up with in this series. their more prosperous counterparts. If the Reductions in both urban and rural poverty Pace of poverty decline picked up after 2005 (% population below poverty line) (%point change in poverty rate, per year) 60 0.0 50.1 50 45.3 -1.0 41.8 40 37.2 33.8 -2.0 31.8 29.8 30 25.7 25.7 20.9 21.9 -3.0 20 13.7 -4.0 10 0 -5.0 Rural Urban National 1994 to 2005 2005 to 2010 2010 to 2012 1993-94 2004-05 2009-10 2011-12 Rural Urban National Source: Narayan and Murgai (2016) *India’s poverty at the $1.90 a day line may be significantly lower if new consumption estimates produced for 2009-10 and 2011-12 by the National Sample Survey organization are used. Based on these measures, India would account for a smaller share (roughly 15 percent) of the global extreme poor but would still be home to the largest number of poor. 6 The World Bank in India • September 2016 Since 2005, poverty reduction in India has exceeded the pace for the developing world 50 46.1 45 % of population below $1.90/day (2011 PPP) 40 34.7 35 30 25 21.3 20 15 14.1 10 5 0 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 India Lower middle income Middle income Developing World Note: Based on the international poverty line of $1.90/day (2011 PPP). Figures are available at roughly 3-year intervals during 1990-2008; for India, actual survey years are used. Source: World Development Indicators (accessed on November 16, 2015) (Change background colour as needed) Nonetheless, the story of India’s has changed significantly. This forms an transformation remains one of optimism. integral part of India’s story that future articles Although the full potential of economic growth in this series will explore. to reduce poverty is yet to be unleashed, the Reference: Ambar Narayan and Rinku links between growth and poverty reduction Murgai: “Looking Back on Two Decades of have become stronger than in the previous Poverty and Well-Being in India” decade. In addition, the manner in which growth has impacted poverty in urban and This article was originally published in the rural areas, as well as in different sectors, Indian Express on 19 May, 2016. The World Bank in India • September 2016 7 Development Dialogue Enabling children to grow: Tackling the multiple determinants of nutrition D uring a recent visit to Barsam village in the Saharsa district of Bihar, I talked with members of a women’s self-help group But my happiness was only momentary. As we talked, it emerged that Anjali was only being given a spoonful or two at most of – one of over 480,000 such groups formed these foods. While the amounts were far from under Jeevika, a rural livelihoods program adequate, Shobha thought they were enough supported by the World Bank in Bihar. for a child of Anjali’s age. And, all the other women agreed. Among the group was nineteen year old Shobha. Like millions of girls across the Alarm bells rang in my mind. Not getting country, Shobha had never been to school. anywhere near the quantity of food she She was married at fifteen, and now has a needed to grow well, and living in an ten-month old daughter. Shobha sat among environment where open defecation was us, cradling little Anjali on her lap. common, Anjali was at high risk of becoming undernourished. Just one infection could I was happy to hear that, when she was push her over the brink. pregnant, Shobha enrolled herself at the local Aanganwadi center which offered nutrition There are millions of other children like Anjali, and health services for both mother and at high risk of becoming undernourished. child under a public program. At the center, An overwhelmingly large proportion of India’s Shobha learnt how to care for Anjali. As a children do not have any of the three key result, the child was exclusively breastfed for determinants for good nutrition that are six months and received all the necessary essential during the first thousand days of a immunizations. Now the little girl is being child’s life. These are proper food, adequate correctly fed a diverse diet of vegetables, health care, and a clean environment. All three pulses, cereals and animal milk, while are critical from conception to two years of continuing to be breastfed. age, to set a firm foundation for future growth. 8 The World Bank in India • September 2016 Without these elements in adequate measure, some improvements have been recorded children are very likely to be stunted (too short recently, an overwhelming 38 percent of for their age), underweight (too little weight for India’s children still remain stunted. Even their age), wasted (too thin for their height), or among the wealthiest quintiles, stunting some combination of these conditions. Each levels are over 26 percent. indicator reflects a different facet: stunting is a sign of chronic (persistent) undernutrition, an It is sometimes thought that Indian children underweight child reflects both chronic and are shorter than their peers elsewhere due to immediate undernutrition, and wasting is the their genetic make-up. While genetics does result of acute (severe recent) undernutrition. play a small part, there is strong evidence to show that all children have the potential Sadly, fewer than 2 percent of India’s children in the critical age group have all three determinants in sufficient measure. And 63 percent of them get none of the three in the recommended degree. While these inadequacies are higher among children from poorer households, they are also present amongst the wealthiest of Indians – only 7 percent of children from these households receive all three determinants in adequate measure. Even sadder is the unacceptably high level of childhood stunting in India. Stunting has lifelong consequences – for the child, for the family, and for the country. It impairs brain and cognitive development, results in poorer school performance, increases the risk of chronic diseases, reduces productivity, reduces lifetime earnings by 10 percent, increases the costs of health care, and shaves off 2-3 percent from GDP. While The World Bank in India • September 2016 9 to grow along a similar trajectory if they are Transformative Development Project – will fed and cared for as recommended, live in scale up the multi-sectoral approach across a hygienic environment, and receive timely another 32 districts of Bihar. This will hugely treatment for infections. increase the number of Bihar’s children who can hope to be well-nourished in early life Clearly, undernutrition has many facets. and escape the lifelong consequences of To improve outcomes, the World Bank’s (Change background colour as needed) stunting. Little Anjali, and all others like her, Rural Livelihoods and Health Nutrition and will then have a better chance to grow up Population teams are piloting a multi-sectoral without old disadvantages, and live their lives approach. A pilot in the Saharsa district of to their full human potential. Bihar is working through women’s self-help groups to promote behavior change in health, Contributed by Ashi Kohli Kathuria, Senior nutrition, water, sanitation and hygiene. The Nutrition Specialist, World Bank groups are being helped to access a range of public programs that have a bearing on nutrition: Integrated Child Development Services, the National Health Mission, the Swacchh Bharat Mission, agriculture extension programs and the Public Distribution System. The pilot’s impact is currently being tested and results will be available towards the end of 2018. Learnings from the pilot will be adapted across the Jeevika project. Evidence from the one-year feasibility study of the pilot is encouraging. It has been found that women are building their own capacity as well as working with communities to promote behavior change and increase demand for public services. Barsam is one of the villages where the pilot is being implemented. Another Bank project – the recently approved $290 million Bihar 10 The World Bank in India • September 2016 ICR Update T his is a short summary of the Implementation Completion Report (ICR) of a recently- closed World Bank project. The full text of the ICR is available on the Bank’s website. To access this document, go to www.worldbank.org/reference/ and then opt for the Documents & Reports section. Strengthening India’s Rural Credit Cooperatives Project Context Strengthening India’s Rural Credit Financial sector reforms improved services Cooperatives Project for the middle class but rural areas still had Approval Date: 26 June, 2007 limited access to formal finance, thus leaving them dependent on moneylenders, often with Closing Date: 30 June, 2013 adverse consequences. Reforms of the rural finance sector emerged as a key priority area Total Project Cost US$ 520.7 million for the Government of India, with a focus on Bank Financing: US$ 416.5 million reviving Rural Financial Institutions. Implementing The National Bank Project Development Objectives Agency: for Agriculture and The Project provided Credit Cooperative Rural Development (NABARD) Banks (CCBs)’ members, including small and marginal farmers, with significantly Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory enhanced access to formal finance (credit, savings, etc.), by ensuring that the potentially Risk to Development Moderate Outcome: viable CCBs in the participating states are transformed into efficient and commercially Overall Bank Moderately Satisfactory sustainable institutions. Performance: Main Beneficiaries Overall Borrower Moderately Satisfactory Performance: The Project aimed at helping the members The World Bank in India • July 2016 12 11 of rural cooperative financial institutions in 2008 to 17 percent in 2012. What was to benefit from enhanced access to formal particularly significant was that in terms of financial services. The focus was particularly number of loans, the ST CCS accounted for on small and marginalized farmers, which over half of all the loans. rely on short-term rural Cooperative Credit Under the revised Cooperative Societies System (ST CCS) for accessing crop loans. Act (CSAs), the regulatory and supervisory Achievements authority over the ST CCS was moved from The Project benefited over 11.2 million the state to the national level with the RBI borrowers (including 7.2 million small and and NABARD as the delegated supervisor marginal farmer borrowers) and 25 million ST identifying corrective actions. This introduced a much-improved system of checks and balances between the state and the center, and reduced the potential for interference. State Cooperative Banks (SCBs) achieved close to 100 percent recovery rates except in West Bengal. The Project also had a positive impact on the productive side of agriculture. Almost all participating states developed business plans, which included plans for non-financial services like upgraded storage space and support for procuring products with the government to secure the minimum price and other facilities along the value chain. Given the critical importance of value chains and intermediation services in agriculture, the availability of these services, lowered the reliance on middle men, and had a positive impact on the livelihood of the rural population. Lessons Learnt A longer project timeframe could have been considered given the complexity and effort needed for reforming the cooperative sector in India. Reform of the cooperative sector involves a complex shift in governance, management and culture, and thus requires a much longer time for the sector to fully absorb such changes and start to grow sustainably. Also, impact of well-functioning CCS clients in the participating states and reformed institutions should ideally be contributed to a significant growth in credit. measured after sufficient time, as internal Loan disbursements in the participating processes, systems and products also need states (Gujarat, Orissa, Haryana, West Bengal to change and full outcomes are realized over & Uttar Pradesh) in FY2012 stood at USD 6.7 a longer timeframe. billion – an increase of 96 percent compared to a target of 70 percent. Agricultural credit Governance reforms should be supplemented doubled between 2008 and 2012, and the from the start with a very strong focus on number of loans increased by 50 percent enhancing credit risk management and over the same period of time. The ST CCS, recovery of non-performing loans. To make which had lost market share to commercial institutions profitable and viable, there is a and rural banks due to their dire financial need for sound credit risk management and situation were able to again increase their efforts towards recovering non-performing share in total lending from a low of 15 percent loans. Therefore, governance reform should 12 The World Bank in India • July 2016 be complemented with a strong focus on Members’ education needs adequate capacity building of the cooperatives to attention to communicate program benefits enhance the credit management skills, and to the ultimate beneficiary group. It is provide an effective monitoring and guidance important that members understand the system to ensure such skills are applied in reform program and what the reform means daily credit operations. to them. The program needs to include a robust communication strategy for reaching Since members’ (mostly farmers) demands out to the members. In addition, financial are diverse, a project should consider literacy programs could also help enhance different types of financial/non-financial impact. services. Financial services involve not only credit, but also different products, Close dialogue and strong coordination such as savings and insurance. Also, rural between the central and state governments cooperatives could play a role in meeting are necessary when a country-wide program farmers’ demand through providing various is implemented on a large-scale. It is critical (Change background colour as needed agricultural related services, using their to set up a solid mechanism in which the vast networks. Attention on supporting progress, achievements, issues and concerns appropriately designed products that take the of each state are regularly tracked and diverse demand of farmers is critical. communicated at the national level. 12 The World Bank in India • July 2016 13 New Additions to the Public Information Center T his is a select listing of recent World Bank publications, working papers, operational documents and other information resources that are now available at the New Delhi Office Public Information Center. Policy Research Working Papers, Project Appraisal Documents, Project Information Documents and other reports can be downloaded in pdf format from ‘Documents and Reports’ at www.worldbank.org India: Policy Research Working Papers Publications may be consulted and copies of unpriced items obtained from: WPS 7799 The World Bank PIC Can environmental policy reduce infant mortality? The Hindustan Times House (Press Block) Evidence from the Ganga pollution cases 18-20, Kasturba Gandhi Marg By Quy-Toan Do, Shareen Joshi and Samuel Stolper New Delhi – 110 001, India In many developing countries, environmental quality Tel: +91-11-4294 7000, Ext. 753 remains low and policies to improve it have been Website: www.worldbank.org inconsistently effective. Facebook: www.facebook.com/WorldBankIndia Email: indiapic@worldbank.org This paper conducts a case study of environmental policy, focusing on an unprecedented ruling by the PRINCIPAL DISTRIBUTOR Supreme Court of India, which targeted industrial Viva Books Pvt Ltd pollution in the Ganga River. Difference-in-difference estimations indicate that the ruling led to reductions in 4737/23 Ansari Road, Daryaganj river pollution and one-month infant mortality. To look at New Delhi – 110 002 the mechanisms of impact, the paper tests whether the Tel: +91-11-4224 2200 identified health impact is fully explained by changes in Fax: +91-11-4224 2240 pollution induced by the policy, and fails to reject that Email: vivadelhi@vivagroupindia.net it indeed is. In so doing, the analysis also quantifies the adverse impact of water pollution on infant health Other Preferred Stockist in India and documents the persistence of such impacts on Anand Associates downstream communities. 1219 Stock Exchange Tower 12th Floor, Dalal Street Mumbai – 400 023 WPS 7792 Tel: +91-22-2272 3065/66 Hidden human capital: Psychological empowerment Email: thrupti@vsnl.com Website: www.myown.org and adolescent girls’ aspirations in India Fax: +91-11-2610 0573 (New Delhi) By Sanchari Roy, Matthew H. Morton and Shrayana Fax: +91-80-4128 7582 (Bangalore) Bhattacharya This paper studies the role of social-emotional or Allied Publishers Pvt Ltd psychological capital in determining the education and Tel: +91-22-2261 7926/27 employment aspirations of adolescent girls and young Email: mumbai.books@alliedpublishers.com Website: www.alliedpublishers.com women in India. The study finds that girls’ self-efficacy and mental health Bookwell are important determinants of their educational and 24/4800 Ansari Road, employment aspirations, suggesting that these hidden Daryaganj forms of human capital may serve as critical targets New Delhi – 110 002 for interventions aiming to alter girls’ educational and Tel: +91-11-2326 8786; 2325 7264 economic trajectories. The study also identifies factors Email: bookwell@vsnl.net that correlate with girls’ level of self-efficacy, and finds that an “enabling” and supportive family and community environment appears to be important. 14 The World Bank in India • September 2016 WPS 7783 This book includes Can labor market imperfections explain changes programs for toddlers and in the inverse farm size–productivity relationship? young children before Longitudinal evidence from rural India primary school, programs By Klaus W. Deininger, Songqing Jin, Yanyan Liu and for students enrolled in Sudhir K. Singh formal education, and programs targeted at the A large national farm panel from India covering a quarter out-of-school population. century (1982, 1999, and 2008) is used to show that It develops a conceptual the inverse farm size-yield relationship weakened framework that helps significantly over time, despite an increase in the to identify the program dispersion of farm sizes. Key reasons are substitution characteristics and participants’ profiles associated with of capital for labor in response to nonagricultural labor a range of program outcomes. demand. Family labor was more efficient than hired labor in 1982-99, but not in 1999–2008. In line with labor Evidence shows that programs are particularly effective market imperfections as a key factor, separability of when targeted to highly vulnerable populations and, in labor supply and demand decisions cannot be rejected particular, to young children. Overall, findings indicate in the second period, except in villages with very low that high-quality programs for young children tend to nonagricultural labor demand. foster cognitive abilities in the short run and impacts socio-emotional skills over the long run. The most successful of these programs are implemented WPS 7741 school-wide and follow the SAFE approach: that is, Spatial development and agglomeration economies they are appropriately sequenced, active, focused, and in services – lessons from India explicit. Finally, the review finds that programs for out- By Syed Ejaz Ghani, Arti Grover and William Robert Kerr of-school children and youth are usually designed as a The study during the 2001-2010 period suggests that means of achieving immediate labor market outcomes (i) services are more urbanized than manufacturing and (e.g., job-placement, formal employment, and higher are moving toward the urban and, by contrast, the wages). While some of these programs show positive organized manufacturing sector is moving away from and statistically significant impacts on socio-emotional urban cores to the rural periphery; skills, the impacts tend to be small. (ii) manufacturing and services activities are highly correlated in spatial terms and exhibit a high degree of concentration in just a few states and industries; Disease Control Priorities): Mental, Neurological, and (iii) manufacturing in urban districts has a stronger Substance Use Disorders, tendency to locate closer to larger cities relative to Third Edition (Volume 4) services activity; By Vikram Patel, Dan (iv) infrastructure has a significant effect on Chisholm, Tarun Dua, manufacturing output, while human capital matters Ramanan Laxminarayan and more for services activity; and lastly, Mari’a Lena Medina-Mora (v) technology penetration, measured by the penetration Available On-line of the Internet, is more strongly associated with Published: June2016 services than manufacturing. Similar results hold Pages: 289 when growth in activity is measured over the study ISBN: 978-1-4648-0428-1 period rather than levels. Manufacturing and services e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0426-7 do not appear to crowd each other out of local areas. Mental, neurological, and substance use disorders are common, highly disabling, Other Publications and associated with significant premature mortality. The impact of these disorders on the social and economic Taking Stock of Programs to Develop well-being of individuals, families, and societies is large, Socioemotional Skills: A Systematic Review of growing, and underestimated. Program Evidence Despite this burden, these disorders have been By Maria Laura Sánchez Puerta, Alexandria Valerio and systematically neglected, particularly in low-and-middle MarcelaGutiérrez Bernal income countries, with pitifully small contributions to Available On-line scaling up cost-effective prevention and treatment Published: August 2016 Pages: 201 strategies. Systematically compiling the substantial ISBN: 978-1-4648-0872-2 existing knowledge to address this inequity is the central Direction in Development goal of this volume. The World Bank in India • September 2016 15 Knowledge-Based Country Programs: An Evaluation international organizations can work together to reduce of World Bank Group Experience the risks to people and economies when a disaster looms. By Aristomene Varoudakis, Juan José Fernández- The book takes the reader through a range of solutions Ansola, Mauricio Carrizosa, that have been implemented around the world to Victor Eduardo Macias respond to disasters. It gives an overview of the Essedin and Albert Martinez evidence on what works and what doesn’t and it Available On-line examines the crucial issue of disaster risk financing. Published: June2016 Building on the latest evidence, it presents a set of Pages: 133 lessons and principles to guide future thinking, research, ISBN: 978-1-4648-0223-2 and practice in this area. The evaluation assesses knowledge-based activities in nine country programs Regenerating urban land: A practitioner’s guide to selected from 48 knowledge-intensive programs leveraging private investment supported by the Bank Group. It identifies the factors in the success or failure of those activities as they By Rana Amirtahmasebi, contribute to policy making or development outcomes. Mariana Orloff, Sameh It also identifies areas of strength for the Bank Group as Naguib Wahba Tadros and well as areas of weakness or risk. Andrew M Altman Available On-line The evaluation was done on economic and sector work Published: June2016 and non-lending technical assistance activities selected Pages: 479 from a purposive sample of knowledge-intensive ISBN: 978-1-4648-0473-1 country programs. In addition, the evaluation assessed International Finance Corporation Advisory Services for Regenerating urban land their synergy with the Bank’s analytical and advisory draws on the experience activities. of eight case studies from around the world. The case studies outline various policy and financial instruments to attract private sector Dull disasters? How planning ahead will make a investment in urban regeneration of underutilized difference and unutilized areas and the requisite infrastructure improvements. By Daniel Jonathan Clarke and Stefan Dercon This manual analyzes rates of return on the investments and long-term financial sustainability. Regenerating Available On-line urban land guides local governments to systematically Published: June2016 identify the sequence of steps and tasks needed to Pages: 154 develop a regeneration policy framework, with the ISBN: 9780191088414 participation of the private sector. e-ISBN: 9780198785576 In recent years, typhoons have struck the Philippines Mobile phone panel surveys in Developing Countries: and Vanuatu; earthquakes A practical guide for microdata collection have rocked Haiti, Pakistan, By Andrew L. Dabalen, Alvin and Nepal; floods have swept through Pakistan and Etang Ndip, Johannes G. Mozambique; droughts have hit Ethiopia, Kenya, and Hoogeveen, and et.al. Somalia; and more. All led to loss of life and loss of Available On-line livelihoods, and recovery will take years. One of the likely Published: June2016 effects of climate change is to increase the likelihood of Pages: 131 the type of extreme weather events that seems to cause these disasters. But do extreme events have to turn into ISBN: 978-1-4648-0904-0 disasters with huge loss of life and suffering? e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0905-7 This book harnesses lessons from finance, political The recent proliferation of science, economics, psychology, and the natural mobile phone networks sciences to show how countries and their partners has opened new possibilities for faster, cheaper, lighter, can be far better prepared to deal with disasters. more nimble data collection methods to address data The insights can lead to practical ways in which gaps between large household surveys. By combining governments, civil society, private firms, and baseline data from a traditional household survey with 16 The World Bank in India • September 2016 subsequent interviews of selected respondents using this innovative approach to data collection works, along mobile phones, new collection methods facilitate welfare with its advantages and challenges. Mobile Phone Panel monitoring and opinion polling almost in real time. Surveys in Developing Countries draws primarily from the authors’ first-hand experiences with mobile phone The purpose of this handbook is to contribute to the surveys in Africa, but it also benefits from experiences development of the new field of mobile phone data elsewhere. collection in developing countries, documenting how India Project Documents Orrisa Rural Livelihoods Project SFG2316, SFG 2334 (Indigenous Peoples Plan, 3 Vol.) Date 19 August 2016 SFG2317 (Resettlement Plan, 2 Vol.) Project ID P093478 Report No. ICRR0020176 (Implementation Telengana Road Sector Project Completion Report Review) Date 11 July 2016 National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project II Project ID P096021 Date 11 August 2016 Report No. 106840 (Procurement Plan) Project ID P144726 Skill Strengthening for Industrial Value Enhancement Report No. STEP 158-160, 166 (Procurement Plan) Project (STRIVE) Date 05 July 2016 Andhra Pradesh Disaster Recovery Project Project ID P156867 Date 08 August 2016 Report No. 106769 (Procurement Plan) Project ID P154847 Report No. STEP 142, 156-157 (Procurement Plan) Uttarakhand Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project Second Tamil Nadu Road Sector Project Date 30 June 2016 Date 08 August 2016 Project ID P083187 Project ID P143751 Report No. ICR3689 (Implementation Completion Report No. STEP 155 (Procurement Plan) and Results Report) Partial Risk Sharing Facility in Energy Efficiency Madhya Pradesh Water Sector Restructuring Project Project Date 29 June 2016 Date 08August 2016 Project ID P073370 Project ID P128921 Report No. ICRR0020137 (Implementation Report No. STEP 152 (Procurement Plan) Completion Report Review) Tamil Nadu Sustainable Urban Development Program Rajasthan Agricultural Competitiveness Project Date 08 August 2016 Date 28 June 2016 Project ID P150395 Project ID P124614 Report No. STEP 148-49 (Procurement Plan) Report No. RES15354 (Project Paper) Madhya Pradesh Urban Development Project Capacity Building for Urban Development Project Date 19 July 2016 Date 28 June 2016 Project ID P155303 Project ID P099979 Report No. SFG 2318, SFG2322, SFG 2333 Report No. RES23703 (Project Paper) (Environmental Assessment, 8Vol.) The World Bank in India • September 2016 17 Rajasthan Agricultural Competitiveness Project Report No. ICRR0020217 (Implementation Completion Report Review) Date 28 June 2016 Project ID P124614 First Phase of Capacity Augmentation of the National Report No. RES15354 (Implementation Waterway Project Completion Report Review) Date 02 June 2016 Project ID P148775 Tamil Nadu Irrigated Agriculture Modernization and Water Bodies Restoration and Management Project Report No. SFG2231, SFG2235 (Environmental Assessment) Date 16 June 2016 Project ID P090768 From the Blogworld Modernizing weather forecasts and disaster planning to save lives By Lisa Finneran During the second IDA18 replenishment meeting in Nay Pyi Taw, I visited the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology’s Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center to see how funding from IDA, the World Bank’s fund for the poorest, is helping the country modernize its systems. The Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project is using the latest forecasting and communication technology, including mobile, to alert citizens to hazardous weather events. IDA is helping the 77 countries eligible for IDA financing cope with climate change by bringing Is it hot outside? Should I bring an umbrella? new solutions—such as better weather data and forecasting and cyclone-resistant houses and Most of us don’t think much beyond these questions warning systems. The shift to modern hydro- (Change background colour as needed) when we check the weather report on a typical day. meteorological services, early warning systems, and But weather information plays a much more critical other preparedness measures is cost effective and is role than providing intel on whether to take an expected to help save lives in Myanmar as it has in umbrella or use sunscreen. It can help manage the other countries. effects of climate change, prevent economic losses and save lives when extreme weather hits. Read more: http://tinyurl.com/jhaqdg6 What will it take for India to reach double digit growth? By Prajakta S. Sapte; Co-Authors: Darshit H. Jaju “Despite the global slowdown, India has been one of the few countries to have shown remarkable growth in the last financial year. While this has been an achievement in itself, this growth rate can be taken to double-digits.” This was the key message of Dr. Frederico Gil Sander, Sr. Country Economist, World Bank Group, New Delhi. Dr. Gil Sander was speaking to students at the IIM Ahmedabad as part of the World Bank-IIM Discussion Series. The discussion centered around “Financing Double-digit Growth: Current and Long-term Challenges of India’s Financial Sector.” 18 The World Bank in India • September 2016 Dr. Gil Sander noted that urban consumption and growth rate, potentially to double-digits, these public investment have been the key drivers for drivers will first have to be augmented by productive current growth. Additionally, a good monsoon capacity investment, which in turn depends on ease (Change background colour as needed) this year is expected to give a boost to rural of credit availability from banks. However, credit consumption. These, coupled with the promised growth in India is marred primarily by high lending emphasis on supply-side factors such as labor rates, priority sector lending regulations and rising reforms, the inclusion of more women in the labor non-performing assets (NPAs). force, and the timely implementation of GST can Read more: http://tinyurl.com/zp43mpa boost economic growth. To further increase this Literacy Rates Higher Among Youth than Adults By Tariq Khokhar In 1970, four in 10 adults were illiterate. Today that figure is less than two in 10. In every region of the (Change background colour as needed) world, literacy has improved, and literacy rates among youth aged 15-24 are higher than adults over 15, especially in South Asia, Sub Saharan Africa and the Middle East. Access data on youth literacy and adult literacy at data.worldbank.org World Bank Policy Research Working Papers WPS 7801 WPS 7796 Impact of social assistance on labor market mobility: Short and long-term effects of a child labor ban The case of Turkey By Caio Piza and Andre Portela Fernandes De Souza By Deniz Alcan, Raif Mokretar-Karroubi, Temel Taskin WPS 7795 and William Wisemand Understanding the dynamics of labor income WPS 7800 inequality in Latin America Predicting project outcomes: A simple methodology By Carlos Rodriguez Castelan, Luis-Felipe Lopez-Calva, for predictions based on project ratings Nora Lustig and Daniel Valderrama By Marc Blanc, Talib B. K. Esmail, Caroline Mascarell WPS 7794 and Joseph Rukshan Rodriguez Synergies in child nutrition: Interactions of food WPS 7799 security, health and environment, and child care Can environmental policy reduce infant mortality? By Emmanuel Skoufias Evidence from the Ganga pollution cases WPS 7793 By Quy-Toan Do, Shareen Joshi and Samuel Stolper Estimating poverty rates in target populations: An WPS 7798 assessment of the simple poverty scorecard and Making the most of demographic change in Southern alternative approaches Africa By Alexis Diamond, Michael Gill, Miguel Angel Rebolledo By S. Amer Ahmed and Marcio Jose Vargas Da Cruz Dellepiane and Emmanuel Skoufias WPS 7797 WPS 7792 Combining mentoring programs with cash transfers for Hidden human capital: Psychological empowerment adolescent girls in Liberia: Baseline report and adolescent girls’ aspirations in India By Kelly K. Hallman, Elizabeth Kelvin, Berk Ozler, Juliette By Sanchari Roy, Matthew H. Morton and Shrayana Seban and et.al. Bhattacharya The World Bank in India • September 2016 19 WPS 7791 WPS 7780 Negative interest rate policies: Sources and Resource misallocation in Turkey implications By Ha Minh Nguyen, Temel Taskin and Ayberk Yilmaz By Carlos Arteta, Ayhan Kose, Marc Stocker and Temel WPS 7779 Taskin Building voluntary pension schemes in emerging WPS 7790 economies Global health workforce labor market projections for By Heinz P. Rudolph 2030 WPS 7778 By Jenny X Liua, Yevgeniy Goryakin, Akiko Maeda, Tim Dictators walking the Mogadishu line: How men Allen Bruckner and Richard M. Scheffler become monsters and monsters become men WPS 7789 By Shaun Larcom, Mare Sarr and Tim Willems Who uses electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa? Findings WPS 7777 from household surveys Factor endowments, technology, capital mobility By Masami Kojima, Xin Zhou, Jeesun Han, Joerie and the sources of comparative advantage in Frederik De Wit and et.al. manufacturing WPS 7788 By Shushanik Hakobyan and Daniel Lederman Financial viability of electricity sectors in Sub-Saharan WPS 7776 Africa: Quasi-fiscal deficits and hidden costs Global inequality: The implications of Thomas Piketty’s By Christopher Philip Trimble, Masami Kojima, Ines capital in the 21st century Perez Arroyo and Farah Mohammadzadeh By Christoph Lakner WPS 7787 WPS 7775 The distributional impact of taxes and transfers in The effects of innovation on employment in developing Poland countries: Evidence from enterprise surveys By Karolina Marta Goraus Tanska and Maria Gabriela By Xavier Cirera and Leonard Sabetti Inchauste Comboni WPS 7774 WPS 7786 Pathways to profits: Identifying separate channels of The microfinance business model: Enduring subsidy small firm growth through business training and modest profit By Stephen J. Anderson, Rajesh Chandy and Bilal By Robert J. Cull, Asli Demirguc-Kunt and Jonathan J. Husnain Zia Morduch WPS 7773 WPS 7785 Not your average job: Measuring farm labor in Disaggregating the impact of the internet on Tanzania international trade By Vellore Shroff Arthi, Kathleen G. Beegle, Joachim De By Alberto Osnago and Shawn Weiming Tan Weerdt and Amparo Palacios-Lopez WPS 7784 WPS 7772 Building long-term portfolio benchmarks for pension International financial integration of East Asia and funds in emerging economies Pacific By Heinz P. Rudolph and Jorge Sabat By Tatiana Didier Brandao, Ruth Llovet Montanes and WPS 7783 Sergio L.Schmukler Can labor market imperfections explain changes WPS 7771 in the inverse farm size–productivity relationship? Geopolitics, aid, and growth: The impact of UN Longitudinal evidence from rural India Security Council membership on the effectiveness of By Klaus W. Deininger, Songqing Jin, Yanyan Liu and aid Sudhir K. Singh By Axel Dreher, Vera Z. Eichenauer and Kai Gehring WPS 7782 WPS 7770 Inequality of opportunity in Sub-Saharan Africa Quantifying uncertainties in global growth forecasts By Paolo Brunori, Flaviana Palmisano and Vito Peragine By Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge, Marc Stocker and WPS 7781 Modeste Y. Some The volatility of international trade flows in the 21st WPS 7769 century: Whose fault is it anyway? Vulnerability to Poverty in rural Malawi By Federico Roberto Bennett, Daniel Lederman, Samuel By Nancy Mccarthy, Josh Brubaker and Alejandro De La Jaime Pienknagura and Diego Rojas Fuente 20 The World Bank in India • September 2016 WPS 7768 WPS 7752 Feedback matters: Evidence from agricultural services Should I stay or should I go? Internal migration and By Maria Ruth Jones and Florence Kondylis household welfare in Ghana By Vasco Molini, Dan Pavelesku and Marco Ranzani WPS 7767 Services and innovation for the competitiveness of the WPS 7756 Ecuadorian economy Firm financing and growth in the Arab region By Luis Rubalcaba Bermejo, David Gago, Maria Ariano By Juan Jose Cortina Lorente, Soha Ismail Ahmed Aly and Arvind Kumar Tripathi Ismail and Sergio L. Schmukler WPS 7766 WPS 7755 Modeling the impacts of climate change on future A comparative analysis of subsidy reforms in the Vietnamese households: A micro-simulation approach Middle East and North Africa Region By Julie Rozenberg and Stephane Hallegatte By Abdelkrim Araar and Paolo Verme WPS 7765 WPS 7754 Exposure to floods, climate change, and poverty in Subsidy reforms in the Middle East and North Africa Vietnam Region: A review By Mook Bangalore, Andrew Smith and Ted Veldkamp By Paolo Verme WPS7764 WPS 7753 The varying income effects of weather variation: Initial Assessing implementation of the principles for public insights from rural Vietnam credit guarantees for SMEs: A global survey By Ulf Gerrit Narloch By Pietro Calice WPS 7763 WPS 7751 Environmental risks and poverty: Analyzing geo-spatial Effects of multilateral support on infrastructure PPP and household data from Vietnam contract cancellation By Ulf Gerrit Narloch and Mook Bangalore By Darwin Marcelo Gordillo and Ruth Schuyler House WPS 7762 WPS 7750 If it pays, it stays: Can agribusiness internalize the Financial (Dis-) information: Evidence from a multi- benefits of malaria control? country audit study By Richard Sedlmayr By Xavier Gine and Rafael Keenan Mazer WPS 7761 WPS 7749 If politics is the problem, how can external actors be Does the 2015 peace accord in Mali reflect the part of the solution? priorities of households and local leaders? By Shantayanan Devarajan and Stuti Khemani By Julia Lendorfer and Johannes G. Hoogeveen WPS 7760 WPS 7748 A randomized control trial of a peer adherence Russian Federation, the World Trade Organization, and nutritional support program for public sector and the Eurasian Customs Union: Tariff and non-tariff antiretroviral patients policy challenges By Frederik Le Roux Booysen, Damien B. C. M. De By World Bank Walque, Mead Over, Satoko Hashimoto and Chantell de WPS 7747 Reuck Do returns to education depend on how and who you WPS 7759 ask? Cheaper, faster, and more than good enough: Is GPS By Pieter Maria Serneels, Kathleen G. Beegle and the new gold standard in land area measurement? Andrew S. Dillon By Calogero Carletto, Sydney Gourlay, Siobhan Murray WPS 7746 and Alberto Zezza On minimizing the risk of bias in randomized controlled WPS 7758 trials in economics All that glitters is not gold: Polarization amid poverty By Alex Eble, Peter Boone and Diana Elbourne reduction in Ghana WPS 7745 By Fabio Clementi, Vasco Molini and Francesco Schettino Do consumers benefit from supply chain WPS 7757 intermediaries? Evidence from a policy experiment in Pirates of Somalia: Crime and deterrence on the high the edible oils market in Bangladesh seas By M. Shahe Emran, Dilip Mookherjee, Forhad J. Shilpi By Quy-Toan Do, Lin Ma and Claudia Ruiz Ortega and M. Helal Uddin The World Bank in India • September 2016 21 WPS 7744 By Olivia Severine D’Aoust, Olivier Christian Brigitte How to measure whether index insurance provides Sterck and Philip Verwimp reliable protection WPS 7731 By Karlijn Morsink, Daniel Jonathan Clarke and Poverty and policy selectivity of World Bank trust Shadreck Mapfumo funds WPS 7743 By Vera Eichenauer and Stephen Knack Structural transformation in Africa: A historical view WPS 7730 By Vellore Shroff Arthi, Kathleen G. Beegle, Joachim De Evidence from a randomized evaluation of the Weerdt and Amparo Palacios-Lopez household welfare impacts of conditional and WPS 7742 unconditional cash transfers given to mothers or Technology strategies for low-carbon economic fathers growth: A general equilibrium assessment By World Bank By Ian Newel James Sue Wing and Govinda R. Timilsina WPS 7729 WPS 7741 Roads and rural development in Sub-Saharan Africa Spatial development and agglomeration economies in By Claudia N. Berg, Brian Blankespoor and Harris Selod services – lessons from India WPS 7728 By Syed Ejaz Ghani, Arti Grover and William Robert Kerr Estimation of climate change damage functions for WPS 7740 140 regions in the GTAP9 database Aging, trade, and migration By Roberto Roson and Martina Sartori By Richard Asher Chisik, Harun Onder and Dhimitri Qirjo WPS 7724 WPS 7739 Do fiscal multipliers depend on fiscal positions? Inherited wealth and demographic aging By Raju Huidrom, Ayhan Kose, Jamus Jerome Lim and By Harun Onder and Pierre Pestieau Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge WPS 7738 WPS 7727 Euro currency risk and the geography of debt flows to Is inequality underestimated in Egypt? Evidence from peripheral European monetary union members house prices By Eylem Ersal-Kiziler and Ha Minh Nguyen By Roy Van Der Weide, Christoph Lakner and Elena Ianchovichina WPS 7737 Sectoral productivity gaps and aggregate productivity WPS 7726 By Rishabh Sinha What difference does good monitoring & evaluation make to World Bank project performance? WPS 7736 By World Bank Impact of climate change and aquatic salinization on mangrove species and poor communities in the WPS 7725 Bangladesh Sundarbans Challenges of fiscal policy in emerging and developing By Susmita Dasgupta, Istiak Sobhan and David J. economies Wheeler By Raju Huidrom, Ayhan Kose and Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge WPS 7735 Impacts of carbon pricing in reducing the carbon WPS 7723 intensity of China’s GDP Financial systems, growth, and volatility: Searching for By Jing Cao, Mun-Sing Ho and Govinda R. Timilsina the perfect fit By Roumeen Islam WPS 7734 The development impact of financial regulation: WPS 7722 Evidence from Ethiopia and antebellum USA The Nexus of financial inclusion and financial stability: By Nicola Limodio and Francesco Strobbe A study of trade-offs and synergies By Martin Cihak, Davide Salvatore Mare and Martin WPS 7733 Melecky Financial regulation and government revenue: The effects of a policy change in Ethiopia WPS 7721 By Nicola Limodio and Francesco Strobbe Evaluating sovereign disaster risk finance strategies: A framework WPS 7732 By Daniel Jonathan Clarke, Olivier Mahul, Richard Who benefited from Burundi’s demobilization Andrew Poulter and Tse-Ling Teh program? 22 The World Bank in India • September 2016 WPS 7720 WPS 7709 Solving commitment problems in disaster risk finance Increased coverage of maternal health services among By Daniel Jonathan Clarke and Liam Wren-Lewis the poor in western Uganda in an output-based aid voucher scheme WPS 7719 By Francis Obare, Peter Okwero, Leslie Villegas, Samuel A methodology to assess indicative costs of risk Lantei Mills and Ben Bellows financing strategies for scaling up Ethiopia’s productive safety net program WPS 7708 By Daniel Jonathan Clarke, Sarah Coll-Black, Naomi Expediting trade: Impact evaluation of an in-house Victoria Cooney and Anna Edwards clearance program By Ana Margarida Fernandes, Russell Henry Hillberry WPS 7718 and Claudia N. Berg Financing the reconstruction of public capital after a natural disaster WPS 7707 By David L. Bevan and Christopher Adam Social capital, trust, and well-being in the evaluation of wealth WPS 7717 By Kirk E. Hamilton, John F. Helliwell and Michael Potential for application of a probabilistic catastrophe Woolcock risk modelling framework to poverty outcomes: General form vulnerability functions relating household WPS 7706 poverty outcomes to hazard intensity in Ethiopia Crime and persistent punishment: A long-run By Catherine Porter and Emily Jennifer White perspective on the links between violence and chronic poverty in Mexico WPS 7716 By Adan L. Martinez-Cruz and Carlos Rodriguez Early warning, early action: The use of predictive tools Castelan in drought response through Ethiopia’s productive safety net program WPS 7705 By Mareile Beate Stephanie Drechsler and Wolter Soer Using administrative data to assess the impact and sustainability of Rwanda’s land tenure regularization WPS 7715 By Daniel Ayalew Ali, Klaus W. Deininger and Marguerite Weather index insurance and shock coping: Evidence Felicienne Duponchel from Mexico’s CADENA Program By Alain F. De Janvry, Elizabeth Andrea Ramirez Ritchie WPS 7704 and Elisabeth Marie L. Sadoulet Recent credit surge in historical context By Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge and Shu Yu WPS 7714 Insuring growth: The impact of disaster funds on WPS 7703 economic reconstruction in Mexico How do we prioritize the GHG mitigation options? By Alain F. De Janvry, Alejandro del Valle and Elisabeth Development of a marginal abatement cost curve for Marie L. Sadoulet the building sector in Armenia and Georgia By Govinda R. Timilsina, Anna Sikharulidze, Eduard WPS 7713 Karapoghosyan and Suren Shatvoryan Social Inclusion in macro-level diagnostics: Reflecting on the World Bank Group’s early systematic country WPS 7702 diagnostics State secretaries reform in Ukraine: Attempt to By Maitreyi Das delineate responsibilities between ministers and senior civil servants WPS 7712 By Oleksii Balabushko Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility in emerging markets WPS 7701 By Rene Cabral, Francisco Galrao Carneiro and Andre Nash on a rotary: Two theorems with implications for Varella Mollick electoral politics By Kaushik Basu and Tapan Mitra WPS 7711 Openness, specialization, and the external vulnerability of developing countries By Luis Diego Barrot Araya, Cesar Calderon and Luis Serven WPS 7710 On the central role of small farms in African rural development strategies By Donald F. 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