ROUND 4 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING AUG 2020 Publication Date BACKGROUND NIGERIA In April 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), with support from the World Bank, launched the COVID- 19 NLPS; a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,950 households to monitor the socioeco- nomic impact of the pandemic and other shocks. The first round (baseline) of the survey was conducted in April/ May 2020, during which a federally mandated lockdown was in full effect. The government began lifting restrictions in June and by the time the fourth round was conducted between August 9-24, 2020, there were minimal re- strictions on movement within the country. This brief presents the findings from the fourth round of the Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone survey (COVID-19 NLPS) conducted in August 2020. SUMMARY  As the government continues to ease travel re- demic. This indicates that there continues to be in- strictions within the country, most Nigerians report stability in the job market. being able to access preventative care, such as pre-  About 54% of households engaged in livestock pro- natal care. duction since mid-March, with nearly 36% of those  About 95% of the households with school aged chil- households raising livestock reporting that the pan- dren that are not attending school reported that demic impacted their livestock activities. While a they plan to send their children to school when they significant share of households generally sell live- reopen. stock, about 17% reported that they sold specifically  About 1 in 4 households were indebted prior to the due to the negative impact of the pandemic. pandemic, while nearly a third have taken out new  Over 67% of households reported that their total loans since the onset of the pandemic. Poorer income decreased compared to the same period households were more likely than richer household one year ago in August 2019, and this decrease was to have loans taken before the pandemic that they evident across the three main sources of income were still repaying. (wages, agriculture, and non-farm enterprise).  The overall share of respondents who are working  The food security situation in Nigeria remains pre- is back to pre-pandemic levels, though there contin- carious, even as the lockdown restrictions continue ues to be some evidence of people moving in and to be loosened. The share of households experienc- out of work. Only 34% of respondents have been ing moderate or severe food insecurity remained working continuously since April/May, while 60% high at 68% in August 2020. have experienced periods without work and 6% have not worked at all since the start of the pan- ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES As the government continues to ease travel restrictions 28% of those households with children who attended within the country, most Nigerians are able to access school before the pandemic reported that the children preventative care, such as prenatal care. About 91% of in their households were currently attending school. Of those households that needed preventative care were the remaining households, whose children were not able to access it and almost 95% of those households attending school, 95% reported that the children are that needed pre-natal or post-natal care were able to planning to go to school when they reopen. Many of access it, between mid-March and August 2020.While those attending school are in transition grades and many schools were still closed at the time of the survey, were taking exams during the period. 1 The sample of 1,950 COVID-19 NLPS households was drawn from the sample of households interviewed in 2018/2019 for Wave 4 of the General Household Survey—Panel (GHS-Panel). The extensive information collected in the GHS-Panel, just over a year prior to the pandemic, provides rich back- ground information on COVID-19 NLPS households which can be leveraged to assess how the impacts of the pandemic differ across Nigeria. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 1 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING CREDIT The pandemic continues to affect the livelihoods of still repaying be repaying. However, the opposite occurs Nigerian households and many have had to take out with new loans, with households in the higher quintiles loans to meet their current obligations. About 1 in 4 being more likely to have taken new loans than poorer households were already indebted prior to the pan- households. This shows that the pandemic has impacted demic while nearly one third have taken out new loans the finances (and livelihoods) of households across the since the onset of the pandemic. Poorer households whole income distribution, and not only the most vul- were more likely than richer households to have loans nerable. taken before the start of the pandemic that they were Loans taken since mid-March have been predominately informal in nature, with over 55% being ob- tained from friends or relatives. Loans obtained from more formal sources were far less frequent with only 9% of respondents re- porting loans obtained from banks and microfinance institutions and 16% from cooperative and savings associations. This could reflect bar- riers faced by Nigerian households to obtain formal loans in the face of a crisis and that many house- holds instead must turn to friends and relatives for loans. Loans taken since mid-March have been predominately informal in nature, with over 55% being obtained from friends or relatives. Loans obtained from more formal sources were far less frequent with only 9% of respondents reporting loans obtained from banks and micro- finance institutions and 16% from coop- erative and savings associations. This could reflect barriers faced by Nigerian households to obtain formal loans in the face of a crisis and that many households instead must turn to friends and relatives for loans. Just as with loans taken before the pandemic, new loans taken to pay for health expenses comparing loans taken were primarily used to pay for food items and, farm and before and after the pandemic, but the share of loans non-farm business inputs. However, there are also some being used for education expenses was substantially important differences in the purposes for which loans reduced, either due to the timing of the survey (at the were taken before and after the start of the pandemic. end of the school year) or due to most schools being About 51% of households that obtained loans after the closed as part of the mitigation efforts by the govern- pandemic began used these loans for purchasing food, ment. A substantial share of households with both new compared with 41% of households with existing loans, and existing loans are concerned about repayment, indicating that loans taken since the start of the pan- with more than 70% of households reporting that they demic were used more to sustain households’ basic are either very worried or somewhat worried about needs. There was no difference in the share of loans being able to repay their loans. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 2 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING EMPLOYMENT AND LIVELIHOODS The share of people who are working has continued to slightly exceeds pre-pandemic levels in rural areas, it creep back up to pre-crisis levels. This trend demon- continues to lag in urban areas where 77% of respond- strates that the government’s loosening of the re- ents were working last week compared to 85% prior strictions has enabled Nigerians to return to work. The to the pandemic. This larger increase in rural levels can share of respondents working has steadily recovered be attributed to the seasonality of agriculture, a sector since June for both rural and urban areas, though the which has experienced the largest recovery in the recovery has been larger in rural than urban areas. share of respondents returning to work. While the share of respondents who are working https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 3 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING Note: In the figure it is assumed that all those who were working at baseline were also working before mid-March. Thus, the shares of respondents working shown for the before-mid-March period represent upper bounds. Temporary absences were not incorporated. Even though the overall share of respondents who are Over 17% of all respondents have started and stopped working is back to pre-pandemic levels, there continues working at some point since mid-March. Most of the to be some evidence of people moving in and out of respondents that have been in-and-out of work since work. Only 34% of respondents have been working mid-March have been engaged in agriculture (56%), fol- continuously since April/May, while 60% have experi- lowed by, commerce (15.6%), construction, transport enced periods without work and 6% have not worked and professional activities (15.6%), and services at all since the start of the pandemic. This indicates that (12.2%). there continues to be instability in the job market. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 4 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING The recovery has been different across economic sec- By August, about 35% of households who operated a tors. The service sector had almost fully recovered by non-farm business since the beginning of 2020 have June, while commerce has had a slower recovery. Agri- remained in operation since April/May, down from 40% culture shows the highest increase of people returning during July. About 13% restarted operations in July, to work in July and August, mostly due to the agricultur- while 12% started operations after July. As of August al season with the beginning of the harvesting season. 2020, almost 26% of households have businesses that Despite the fact that many non-farm family businesses are currently closed, and this number is up from 23% in have reopened since the start of the crisis, some of July. these businesses closed again between July and August. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 5 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING LIVESTOCK Livestock is an important sector of the Nigerian econ- adversely affected by the pandemic. The livestock pro- omy with over 54% of households reporting to have duction activities that have suffered from the corona- kept livestock since mid-March. This sector has not virus crisis include access to feed (89% of affected been immune from the COVID-19 crisis with nearly households), access to healthcare/drugs (79%), and ac- 36% of livestock owning households reporting being cess to input/output markets (82%). The pandemic also led to an increase in the sale of live- stock. However, the pandemic resulted in an additional stock for some households that might otherwise not 17% of households reporting the need to sell their live- have been inclined to sell in the absence of the pan- stock as a result of the hardships imposed by the pan- demic indicating that households are shifting to sale of demic. This shift to livestock sales as a result of the livestock as a coping mechanism in the face of COVID- coronavirus crisis was more prevalent among poorer 19 crisis. Overall, almost 29% of livestock owning households. households reported that they usually sell their live- https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 6 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING INCOME CHANGES AND FOOD SECURITY Across the three main income generating activities and this decrease was evident across the three main (wages, agriculture, and non-farm enterprises), a signifi- sources of income. However, the share of households cant percentage of households report a decrease in experiencing a decline in income was highest for non- income compared to one year ago. Over 67% of house- farm family business activities at 65% of households, holds reported that their total income decreased com- compared to 58% for agriculture (household farming, pared to the same period one year ago in August 2019, livestock or fishing), and 43% for wage employment. The food security situation in Nigeria remains pre- carious, even as the lockdown restrictions contin- ue to be loosened. The share of households expe- riencing moderate or severe food insecurity re- mained high at 68% in August 2020. Experience of both moderate and severe food insecurity are more prevalent than that reported in July/August 2018 during the first visit of the GHS-Panel. Data Notes: The Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 NLPS) 2020 Fourth Round was implemented by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in August 2020. This sur- vey is part of a World Bank global effort to support countries in their data collection efforts to moni- tor the impacts of COVID-19. World Bank teams from the Development Data Group and the Poverty and Equity Global Practice provided technical support. This survey is the fourth of a planned 12 rounds of the COVID-19 NLPS of households in Nigeria. 1,881 households from the baseline were contacted and 1,789 households, fully interviewed. These same households will be contacted in subse- quent rounds of the COVID-19 NLPS. The data are representative at the national level and survey weights were calculated to adjust for non-response and under coverage. For further details on the data, visit http://www.worldbank.org/lsms-covid19 & https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria/brief/monitoring-covid-19-impact-on-nigerian-households For further details on COVID-19 in Nigeria, visit https://nigeria-coronavirus-response-data-hub-nbs-nigeria.hub.arcgis.com/ For details on the survey, contact Biyi Fafunmi (biyifafunmi@nigerianstat.gov.ng) and Tunde Adebisi (tundeadebisi@nigerianstat.gov.ng) https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 7