66108 October 2011 – Number 47 MANAGING PEACEFUL TRANSITIONS: EVIDENCE AND EXPERIENCE Sarah Cliffe, Jana El Horr, and Colin Scott1 note summarises that combination of research and experience with suggestions for new approaches. Introduction: How can recent Bank-led research on development, security and conflict inform policy The Lessons of Transitions - what the research tells choices in MENA? The „Arab spring‟ has presented a us: Political transitions—ranging from elections to level of protest and political transition in the region peace agreements after civil wars—have often been not seen since the fall of the Ottoman Empire and followed by repeated cycles of violence. During the end of the colonization period in the middle of transitions, new forms of conflict and violence such the twentieth century. However, research shows that as crime and communal violence can be a major leadership changes in MENA have often been threat to the sustainability of development activities. followed for a couple of years by the heightened risk Grievances that are not addressed during transitions of conflict and violence as newly-arrived regimes can escalate into acute demands for change and risks and citizenries attempt to assert their authority and of violent conflict. rights. Recent transitions therefore pose a challenge to national reformers and development institutions To break repeated cycles of violence, political alike: what development measures are most likely to transitions need to (1) build confidence by building support peaceful recovery and transformation? “inclusive enough coalitions� and (2) transform the institutions that provide citizen security, justice, This Quick Note considers that question from the and jobs. As noted in the WDR 2011, as violence perspective of the 2011 World Development Report repeats, efforts to build confidence and transform (WDR) on “Conflict, Security, and Development� institutions typically follow a repeated spiral. and a complementary regional Bank study.2 When Countries that moved away from fragility and the WDR conducted its regional launch in Cairo in violence often do so not through one decisive “make May 2011, experts recounting the „proven or break� moment—but through many transitional experience‟ of transition countries elsewhere gave moments (Figure 1). the research findings an added level of reality. This Figure 1. Moving from fragility and violence to institutional resilience in citizen security, and jobs 1 Sarah Cliffe, East Asia and Pacific Region, The world Bank, Jana El Horr, and Colin Scott, Middle East and North Africa Region, The World Bank. The input of this Fast Brief was provided by: the International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ), General Juan Cheyre, Vato Lejava, Dewi Fortuna Anwar, and Jay Naidoo and from Bank staff: Martin Raiser; Ray Southworth, Jana Kunicova, and Augusto de la Torre. This Quick Note was cleared by Franck Bousquet, Sector Manager, The Middle East and North Africa Region, The World Bank. 2 World Development Report Overview, “Conflict, security, and Development�, World Bank, April 2011, and Regional study on Conflict, Fragility, and development, „�Reducing Conflict Risk: conflict, security, and development in the Middle East and North Source: WDR 2011 on “conflict, security, and Africa�, World Bank, expected October 2011 development� For each loop of the spiral, the same two phases situations of transitions requires deliberate efforts recur: building confidence that positive chance is (1) to build inclusive-enough coalitions through possible, prior to deepening the institutional collaboration between the government and other transformation and strengthening governance. sectors of the society and (2) to identify local community priorities to deliver early results Creating the legitimate institutions that can programs. prevent repeated violence is slow. The fastest transforming countries have taken about a The success of political transition in South Africa generation, between 15-30 years, to raise their in 1994 required shifting the “mindset� of the institutional performance. This process of different parties to be more inclusive. The African transforming institutions accelerated considerable in National Congress (ANC) Alliance had to adopt a the 20th century with increases in citizens‟ demands broader and more inclusive approach to ensure the for good governance and in the technologies that needs and incentives of the National Party and the can help supply it. (Table 1) white population. On the other hand, the National Party had to shift its thinking from group rights and Table1. Fastest progress in institutional protection of minorities to individual rights and transformation—an estimate of realistic ranges majority rule. Inclusive strategies were used for security, social and economic issues, not just Years to threshold political: for example, South Africa had participatory forums to debate economic, labor and housing Indicator Fastest 20 Fastest over policy and “peace committees� at national, the threshold provincial and local level which helped minimize Bureaucratic violence during the pre and post electoral periods.3 20 12 quality Quick results can help build confidence. After the Corruption 27 14 1994 elections in South Africa, delivering a few early Military in 17 10 results—including maternal and infant healthcare politics and using community structures to improve water Government supply—were important to maintain confidence in 36 13 the new government. Similarly, in Argentina and effectiveness Indonesia, rapid action on social protection Rule of law 41 17 programs helped build confidence in the new Source: Pritchett and de Weijer 2010 government‟s ability to care for citizens. As transitions take time, bottom up processes through National reformers and their international partners decentralization reforms and community driven need to assess transitions circumstances and adapt development that enable citizen participation and lessons from others to the local political context. improvement of services can yield to quick results as For instance, in middle income countries that are was effectively done in Indonesia.4 known to have strong institutions, they often face issues of accountability and exclusion during Confidence-building measures can include transitions. Hence, national reformers and their removing sources of harassment as well as international partners need to think through the providing new services. In Indonesia, the reform political economy of interventions and adapt agenda was as much a list of what people did not program design to that context drawing upon like (military domination, corruption, human rights lessons from countries that faced similar challenges such as Indonesia, Eastern Europe, Latin American, 3 Input on South Africa is provided by Jay Naidoo, Chairman of and South Africa. Global Alliance for Improved nutrition; former General Secretary Congress of South African Trade Unions, Minister for Managing Transitions: Non-MENA Experiences: Reconstruction and Development, South Africa; and Chairman of the Development Bank of South Africa 4 First steps: the importance of confidence building World Bank, “Supporting Social Accountability in the Middle during transitions: Confidence building in East and North Africa: Lessons Learned from Past Political and Economic Transitions�, October, 2011 October 2011 · Number 47 · 2 abuses and centralization of power) as an expression Institutional transformation in the political and of peoples‟ positive demands. Following the Rose security areas has generally started early but taken revolution in Georgia, the newly formed time to complete. In Chile, civilian oversight and government had to adopt immediate measures to elimination of the most abusive security units and enhance quality of services in order to fight redeployment of senior personnel within the corruption and restore confidence in the transitional security services were undertaken quickly. Rapid process. The first step came in the abolition of the action on civilian oversight of the Carbinieri was traffic police and, over time, their replacement with combined with procedures on the promotion and a professional force that was focused on serving the the confirmation processes of judges which public rather than bribe-taking. Also, the encouraged lower-level prosecutorial independence. government put into action a national entrance However, initial processes of accountability for past examination for higher education that eliminated human rights abuses were limited in scope, and corruption in university placement and prevented investigations proceeded in a paced manner for over „the rich from buying their way in�.5 20 years following the initial transition. Equally, in Indonesia, new laws on the military and the police Government outreach to civil society is critical to were only introduced several years after the initial building confidence and trust. In post- transition. Many laws introduced during the early revolutionary environments of raised expectations, transitional period, such as the electoral and new governments have opportunities to engage regional autonomy laws underwent subsequent citizens and stakeholders from all segments of revision. Surveys and polls emerged as an society at every level of decision-making: civil important tool for gauging popular perceptions. 7 society organizations, local communities, representatives of the poor and vulnerable, religious In addition to political and security reforms, job groups, and women‟s groups. Such engagement creation, capacity building, and strengthening should be supported by mechanisms for genuine local governance are necessary for supporting dialogue. Political and economic transitions in institutional transformation. In Indonesia, the end countries such as Indonesia, Philippines, South of Suharto‟s autocratic regime in May 1998 was Korea, Peru, Mexico, Argentina, Turkey, Spain, and precipitated by the Asian Financial crisis that led to Portugal show how crises can lead to democratic the collapse of the Indonesian economy and caused transitions, strengthen relationship between citizens mass riots primarily led by youth. In this context, and government, and create new opportunities for the transitional government had to adopt reforms to reform and economic growth. Providing show its commitment to transformation. The mechanisms for participation in policy dialogue Kecamatan Development Program (KDP), a national could also reduce the risk of political instability.6 Government of Indonesia program, implemented by the Ministry of Home Affairs, Community Following through: the importance of institutional Development Office, was launched in 1998 to transformation during transitions: alleviate poverty, strengthen local government and community institutions, and improve local Creating the legitimate institutions that can build governance. KDP focused on engaging local confidence and prevent repeated violence is slow communities in decision-making, emphasizing and takes a generation. There is a limit to the transparency and information sharing, and amount of change societies can absorb, and reforms supporting broad based participation in the various need to get the right amount of time to ensure activities especially by youth and women.8 In successful transformation. Georgia, targeting the poorest 10 percent of families in social assistance was important to create confidence in the transition and a longer-term sense 5 7 Input on Georgia provided by Vato Lejaba, Chief Advisor to Input on Chile provided by General Juan Emilio Cheyre, the Prime Minister of Georgia, Nikoloz Gilori, on Economic and Founder and Director of the Center for International Studies at Governance Affairs the Catholic University of Chile; Commander in Chief of the 6 World Bank, “Supporting Social Accountability in the Middle Army 2002-2006 8 East and North Africa: Lessons Learned from Past Political and Input on Indonesia provided by Professor Dewi Fortuna Economic Transitions�, October, 2011 Anwar, Associate Director for Research, The Habibie Center October 2011 · Number 47 · 3 of institutional legitimacy. Chile, Argentina, aid to deliver early results. These programs led by Georgia, Indonesia and Colombia all adopted organizations such as the UNDP and UN Children‟s measures that balanced marcoeconomic stability fund, can offer best practices to the Bank and other with maintaining popular support for social development organizations in combining investments. humanitarian delivery with capacity-building using local personnel and community structures. Selected Recommendations: As the 2011 WDR and regional study move into a longer term Box1: Adapting community-level program design to dissemination phase, the following country context recommendations appear most relevant to MENA. First, to prevent large-scale political or criminal Community Development programs, implemented violence and to ensure peaceful transitions, during transitions, require contextual analysis of the development partners need to broaden the type of transition and the impacts of the alignment traditional development paradigm. Building between community decision-making structures and formal government administration. In many countries confidence and strengthening the institutions that emerging from conflict, and where development provide security, justice, and jobs are crucial to programs are under state auspices, aligning changing the probabilities of violence and to community programs with emergent government continuous risk reduction. Development approaches structures that are undergoing reforms may be difficult needed to support these measures would include: and might de-legitimize these programs. • Moving from sporadic early warning to continuous risk assessment: development Source: WDR 2011 on “conflict, security, and organizations need to assess wherever weak development� institutional legitimacy and internal or external stresses indicate a need for attention prevention and Conclusion: Political transitions in the MENA to capacities for peaceful reform processes.9 region are still playing out in different ways in • Providing budget support and technical different countries with unpredictable outcomes. assistance for citizen security and justice in joint The development prognosis for each country is teams and supporting financing collaborative and different and will depend upon case-by-case mediated agreements: development organizations analysis and remedies in line with local demands need to support a joint process supporting national and international capabilities. This note does not planning that covers the political, justice, security, imply generic solutions for the region, but a clear humanitarian, and development areas. For example, sense that evidence and experience from countries the Bank can support measures that address budget who have successfully managed transitions is a and expenditure processes in security and justice, positive example to countries in MENA while partners with security and justice expertise struggling with rapid change. can contribute to technical capacity-building. • Supporting state community, state-NGOs, state-private sector programs for service delivery Contact MNA K&L: and multi-sectoral violence prevention: Laura Tuck, Director, Strategy and Operations. MENA multisectoral programs involved in policing, justice, Region, The World Bank Regional Quick Notes Team: and development can provide local dispute Omer Karasapan, , Roby Fields, and Hafed Al-Ghwell resolution and justice services, community policing, Tel #: (202) 473 8177 employment and training, safe public and trading The MNA Quick Notes are intended to summarize lessons spaces, and social and cultural programs promoting learned from MNA and other Bank Knowledge and Learning tolerance. activities. The Notes do not necessarily reflect the views of • Considering when humanitarian aid can the World Bank, its board or its member countries. be integrated into national programs without compromising humanitarian principles. During transitions, there is a big reliance on humanitarian 9 World Development Report Overview, “Conflict, security, and Development�, World Bank, April 2011 October 2011 · Number 47 · 4