73482 rev Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries MENA DEVELOPMENT REPORT Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries A Case for Adaptation Governance and Leadership in Building Climate Resilience Dorte Verner, Editor © 2012 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202- 473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 2 3 4 15 14 13 12 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. Note that The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content included in the work. The World Bank there- fore does not warrant that the use of the content contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. 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Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Verner, Dorte, ed. 2012. Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries. Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9458-8. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0. Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-9458-8 ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-9459-5 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9458-8 Cover photo: Dorte Verner. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Verner, Dorte. Adaptation to a changing climate in the Arab countries : a case for adaptation governance and leadership in building climate resilience / Dorte Verner. p. cm.—(MENA development report) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8213-9458-8 (alk. paper)—ISBN 978-0-8213-9459-5 1. Climatic changes—Arab countries. 2. Climatic changes—Social aspects—Arab countries. 3. Climatic changes—Environmental aspects—Arab countries. 4. Climatic changes—Economic aspects— Arab countries. 5. Climatic changes—Effect of human beings on—Arab countries. 6. Arab countries— Environmental conditions. I. Title. QC903.2.A64V47 2012 363.738'7456109174927—dc23 2012020579 Contents Foreword xv Preface xix Acknowledgments xxiii Contributors xxix Abbreviations xxxv Overview 1 Climate Has Shaped the Cultures of Arab Countries 1 Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries 9 A Harsh Environment Has Shaped the Cultures in the Region 9 1 Climate Change Is Happening Now 11 The Effects of Climate Change Are Socially Differentiated 14 Climate Change Adaptation Is about Reducing Vulnerability 25 Climate Change Adaptation Should Be an Integrated Part of Public Sector Management for Sustainable Development 28 Notes 33 References 36 2 Ways Forward for Climatology 39 Despite Sparse Observational Data, the Projections Are That Most of the Arab Region Is Becoming Hotter and Drier 42 IPCC AR4 Projects Warming and Aridity 53 Downscaled Projections Are Available for the Region 60 Sea Levels Will Continue to Rise 72 A New Round of Improved Projections Is Coming 75 Annex 2C: Dealing with Climate Risks—A Checklist 86 Notes 92 References 92 v vi Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Spotlight 1: Climate Resilience Disasters Risk Management Increases Climate Resilience 100 Climate Disasters Are Increasing in Frequency 100 Disaster Risk Management Increases Climate Resilience 100 The Hazard Risk Profile of the Arab States Is Changing 101 Arab States Are Responding to Mitigate Climate Threats 102 Gaps and Constraints Exist in Arab DRM Policies 103 Recommendations to Build Resilience in the Arab Countries 104 Notes 106 References 106 3 Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 109 Climate Change Will Have Diverse Impacts on Hydrometeorological Conditions 110 The Arab Region Is Water Scarce 114 Managing Water Resources Is Critical in a Changing Climate 128 Long-Term Adaptation Strategies Can Reduce the Water Gap 144 Notes 147 References 148 Spotlight 2: Climate Adaptation Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Have a Role in Climate Adaptation 152 Biodiversity in the Arab Region Is of Global Importance for Agriculture and Adaptation 152 Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Are Important for Economies and Livelihoods 153 Managing Risks from Climate Change and Other Pressures Is Imperative 156 Management of Biodiversity and Ecosystems Is Essential 159 References 159 4 Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 163 Agriculture Is Essential for the Economy, Food Security, and Livelihoods in the Region 163 Agriculture Is under Stress from Water Scarcity and Population Growth 164 Climate Change Affects Farming Systems and Rural Livelihoods 169 A Range of Adaptation Options Are Available 173 Contents vii Effective Adaptation Requires Policy Reforms and Support Programs 185 Ways Forward to Reduce Climate Stress 190 Note 202 References 202 5 Climate Change Affects Urban Livelihoods and Living Conditions 207 Climate Change Threatens Cities 208 Cities Are Changing and Becoming More Exposed 209 Cities Struggle to Provide Water for an Increasingly Difficult Scenario 218 Arab Cities Are Responding to Climate Changes 221 Weak Governance Contributes to Lack of Adaptation Action 223 Policy Makers Have Opportunities to Make Cities More Resilient 225 Note 234 References 234 6 Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience 241 Tourism Is Important for Economic Growth, Foreign Exchange, and Employment 241 Climate Change Has a Significant Impact on the Tourism Industry 249 The Tourism Industry Depends on Climate Adaptation 257 Private and Public Sector Interventions Are Needed for Sustainable Tourism 267 Notes 269 References 270 7 Gender-Responsive Climate Change Adaptation: Ensuring Effectiveness and Sustainability 277 Background 278 Gender Roles and Relations Help Shape Responses to Climate Change in Arab Countries 281 Regional Case Studies Demonstrate How Gender Consideration Makes a Difference in Adaptation 290 Multiple Approaches Are Needed to Incorporate a Gender Perspective in Adaptation 295 Key Messages 299 viii Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Notes 304 References 305 8 Human Health and Well-Being Are Threatened by Climate Change 309 Climate Change Threatens Human Health in the Region 312 Some Population Groups Are Particularly Vulnerable 320 Data and Research Are Needed to Fill Gaps 323 Adaptive Strategies Exist to Improve Human Health and Strengthen the Health Sector 325 Upgrading of Public Health Systems Is Necessary 334 Key Messages 335 Notes 336 References 336 9 Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 347 Adaptation Is an Integrated Part of Public Sector Management for Sustainable Development 348 Leadership Is Central for Successful Adaptation 352 Policy Options Are Available to Support Climate Change Adaptation 352 1. Facilitate the Development of Publicly Accessible and Reliable Information and Analyses Related to Adaptation 353 2. Provide Human and Technical Resources and Services to Support Adaptation 358 3. Build Climate Resilience of the Poor and Vulnerable through Social Protection and Other Measures 361 4. Develop a Supportive Policy and Institutional Framework for Adaptation 363 5. Build Capacity to Generate and Manage Revenue and to Analyze Financial Needs and Opportunities 368 Applying Policy Recommendations to Address Key Climate Change Issues 369 Note 378 References 378 Index 381 Boxes 1.1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Definitions: Climate, Climate Change, and Climate Variability 13 Contents ix 1.2 Water-Related Impacts: Selected Examples from the Arab Region 15 1.3 Effects of Severe Droughts on Rural Livelihoods in Syria 17 1.4 Definitions of Climate Change Adaptation 26 1.5 Jordan Desert Ecosystems and Livelihoods Project 34 2.1 Some Basic Definitions 40 2.2 Observational Networks 45 2.3 Access to Data 45 2.4 Capacity Building Using Regional Climate Information 50 2.5 Climate Models and Downscaling 61 2.6 The Practice of Impact Modeling 78 S1.1 Hyogo Priority Actions 103 S1.2 Drought Emergency in the Greater Horn of Africa: Early Response in Djibouti 104 3.1 Consuming versus Using Water: The Double-Edged Nature of Irrigation Efficiency 141 S2.1 Integrated Land and Water Management in Arab Countries 157 4.1 Brackish Water Sources for Biosaline Agriculture 178 4.2 Yemeni Farmers Grasp the Challenge of Adapting to Climate Change 179 4.3 Abu Dhabi Government Has Already Taken Steps toward More Water-Sustainable Agricultural Production 181 4.4 Trade-Offs between Self-Sufficiency and Food Security in Morocco 182 5.1 Climate Change Contributes to Urbanization: The Example of Rural-to-Urban Bedouin Migration in the Syrian Arab Republic 212 5.2 Climate Change in Dryland Cities: Nouakchott, Mauritania 218 5.3 Case Study: Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in the Coastal Cities of North Africa 227 5.4 The Need for a Climate-Resilient Arab Energy Sector 232 6.1 Promotion of Traditional Culture in Oman 242 6.2 Tunisian Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation of the Tourism Industry 243 6.3 Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs 255 6.4 Arab Spring: The 2011 Tourism Effect 258 6.5 Investing in Biodiversity: The Jordanian Dana Biosphere Reserve 259 6.6 Unsustainable Water Use in the Tourism Industry 259 6.7 Cultural and Natural Preservation through Sustainable Tourism: Diversifying Local Livelihoods 266 7.1 Women’s Roles in Buffering against Shocks 283 x Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries 7.2 Data: A Fundamental Challenge 286 7.3 Community-Based Water Management in the Republic of Yemen: Improving Climate Change Awareness, Water Management, and Child Health, and Empowering Women 291 7.4 Addressing Gender-Related Challenges in Adapting Agricultural Livelihoods in Morocco 293 7.5 Unlocking Women’s Potential to Help Drive Adaptation in the Gulf 299 8.1 Recent Health Impacts Associated with Weather-Related Extreme Events in Selected Arab Countries 311 8.2 Vector-Borne Diseases in Arab Countries 316 8.3 Current Research Needs in the Arab Region 330 9.1 Impacts of Climate-Induced Rural-to-Urban Migration on Water Supply 349 9.2 Robust Decision Making and the Transport Sector 351 9.3 Water Data Collection, Modeling, and Monitoring in Arab Countries 356 9.4 Weather-Based Index Insurance 362 9.5 Egypt’s National Adaptation Strategy 364 9.6 Coordination of Water Management in Morocco 367 Figures 1 The Adaptation Pyramid: A Framework for Action on Climate Change Adaptation 5 1.1 Cumulative Impacts of Climate Change on Household Income for Syria, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen 21 1.2 The Bedouin’s Assets to Cope with Drought, 1990 and 2010 24 1.3 Conceptual Framework for Defining Vulnerability 27 1.4 The Adaptation Pyramid: A Framework for Action on Climate Change Adaptation 30 2.1 Change in Days with Maximum and Minimum Temperatures 52 2.2 MM5/CCSM Modeled Monthly Mean Rainfall for Early and Late 21st Century 67 2.3 Mean Seasonal Temperature Changes for the 2080s Downscaled from HadCM3 under the A2 Emission Scenario 68 2.4 Seasonal Cycle of Rainfall Statistics for the Mashreq 70 2.5 Annual Averages of the Global Mean Sea Level 74 2.6 Representative Concentration Pathways Compared with the Older SRES Scenarios 77 Contents xi S1.1 The Impact of Climate-Related Disasters across the Arab Region 101 3.1 Renewable Water Resources versus Total Water Demand through 2050 113 3.2 Current and Projected Water Demand and Supply for Selected Arab Countries 116 3.3 Variability and Level of Precipitation in Arab Countries versus Other Countries Worldwide 118 3.4 Yearly Inflows to Lake Qaraoun, Lebanon, 1962–2004 119 3.5 Estimated Increase in Domestic per Capita Consumption in Selected Arab Countries 122 3.6 Agricultural Value Added GDP per Cubic Kilometer of Water Used in Agriculture 123 3.7 Water Productivity in Irrigated Crop Fields 124 3.8 Components of the Full Cost of Water 135 3.9 Regional Water Marginal Cost Curve for the Average Climate Projection for Arab Countries 143 3.10 Water Marginal Cost Curves for Algeria and the United Arab Emirates 145 S2.1 The Ecological Footprint of Arab Countries 157 4.1 Average Cereal Yield 167 4.2 Average Vegetable/Melon Yield 167 4.3 Average Cereal Yields in the Middle East and North Africa: Historic Climate and Alternative Scenarios, 2025 and 2050 171 4.4 Mixed Crops 174 4.5 Drought-Tolerant Plants 176 4.6 Various Date Palm Species 177 4.7 A Conceptual Framework for Considering Integrated Adaptation Strategies for Addressing Agriculture, Water, Food Security, Rural Livelihoods, Gender, and Environment Issues 186 5.1 Urban Population Growth in Selected Arab Countries, the Arab Region, and the World 213 5.2 Estimated Percentage Increase in Storm Surge Zone Areas by Country, in Selected Arab Countries, 2009 215 5.3 Climate-Sensitive Streetscape in Amman: An Urban Greening Project, Before and After 224 5.3.1 Adaptation Cost Curve for Casablanca 229 6.1 International Tourism by Destination 244 6.2 Number of Tourist Arrivals in Selected Arab Countries, 2005–10 245 6.3 Origination of Tourists to the Arab Region, 2005–09 246 xii Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries 6.4 Temperature and Tourist Season in Egypt 250 7.1 Women and Men Engaged in Agriculture, 2004 282 8.1 Links between Climate Change and Human Health 312 8.2 The Relationship between Health Expenditures per Capita and Child Mortality 317 Maps 2.1 Spatial Distribution of Stations with at Least 10 Years of Monthly Rainfall 43 2.2 Rainfall Stations in the Republic of Yemen Run by the Ministry of Irrigation and Agriculture, 2007 44 2.3 Rainfall in Arab Countries and Year-to-Year Variations 46 2.4 Positive Temperature Trends Seen in the Majority of Available Ground Stations 48 2.5 Spatial Distribution of Rainfall from a Study Conducted in the Region, 1998–2009 50 2.6 Projected Surface Temperature Changes for the Early and Late 21st Century Relative to the Period 1980–99 54 2.7 Temperature and Rainfall Changes over Africa (and the Arabian Peninsula) Based on 21 IPCC AR4 Models under the IPCC A1B Scenario 55 2.8 Projected Climate Change for Late This Century 56 2.9 Annual Mean Temperature Response in Africa in 2 out of 21 IPCC AR4 Models 57 2.10 Changes in Rainfall Extremes Based on Multimodel Simulations from Nine Global Coupled Climate Models 59 2.11 Example of the Benefit from High-Resolution Modeling 64 2.12 MM5/CCSM Modeled Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature, 2095–99 compared with 2000–04 65 2.13 MM5/CCSM Modeled Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall, 2095–99 compared with 2000–04 66 2.14 Projections of Drought Index 69 2.15 Probability of Monthly Heat Index above 30°C 72 2.16 Rainfall Anomalies for 2007–17 83 3.1 Middle East and North Africa Aridity Zoning: Precipitation Divided by Reference Evapotranspiration 110 3.2 Annual Mean Changes in Hydrometeorological Variables for the Period 2080–99 Relative to 1980–99 112 5.1 Urban Expansion in Beirut, 1984–2006 213 5.2 Population Density of the Arab Countries, 2005 214 5.3 Rise in Cairo Surface Temperature, 1964–2002 216 6.1 Direct Tourism Revenues as Share of GDP, 2009 248 Contents xiii Tables 1.1 Socioeconomic Information for Arab Countries 18 3.1 Current and Projected Water Demand and Supply for Arab Countries (million cubic meters) 114 3.2 Cost of Water Adaptation Measures 143 S2.1 Classification of Ecosystem Services as in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Framework and Examples from the Chapters in This Volume 153 S2.2 Biodiversity and Ecosystems in Arab Countries 154 S2.3 Ecological Capacity and the Deficit or Reserve in Arab Countries, 2007 156 4.1 Principal Farming Systems of the Arab Region 165 4.2 Exposure: Expected Climate Changes 169 4.3 Climate Change Impacts on Farming Systems of the Arab Region 170 4.4 Projected Rate of Annual Change for Rainfed Wheat under One Climate Change Scenario 172 4.5 Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change Impact in the Main Farming Systems of the Arab Region 180 4.6 Food Security Strategy Options under Climate Change 183 4.7 Strategies and Actions for Improved Rural Livelihoods at the Household Level 184 4A Characteristics of the Arab Region’s Farming Systems 194 4B Predictive Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Livestock 196 4C Measures and Potential Results in Farm-Level Adaptation to Climate Change 198 4D Strategies and Actions for Agriculture and Water-Related Adaptation at the National Level 199 4E Strategies and Actions for Improving Rural Livelihoods and Adaptation at the National Level 200 4F Strategies and Actions for Food Security Adaptation at the National Level 201 5.1 Possible Climate Change Impacts in Urban Areas in the Arab Countries 210 5.2 Wastewater Treatment Capacity of Selected Arab Economies 220 5.3 Flood-Risk Management Measures in Urban Areas 231 6.1 Tourism Revenue and Direct Contribution to GDP Relative to GDP in 2009 247 6.2 Impacts of Climate Change by Tourist Segment 253 6.3 Adaptation Strategies for Stakeholders in the Tourism Industry 260 xiv Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries 6.4 Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change Impacts on Tourism in General 261 6.5 Adaptation Strategies for Tourism Segments 262 6.6 Annual GDP Contribution by Tourist Sector per Employee 265 7.1 Selected Gender Indicators for the Arab Region and Subregions, 2009 or Latest Available Data 285 7A Matrix of Proposed Policy Options 301 9.1 Data Needs for Effective Adaptation Decision Making 354 9.2 Technology Transfer Prospects in Agriculture and Water Sectors in the Arab Countries 360 9.3 Arab Least-Developed Countries Offer Top Two Priority Projects 365 9.4 A Policy Matrix for Arab Adaptation to Climate Change 370 Foreword Adapting to climate change is not a new phenomenon for the Arab World. For thousands of years, the people in Arab countries have coped with the challenges of climate variability by adapting their survival strategies to changes in rainfall and temperature. Their experience has contributed significantly to the global knowledge on climate change and adaptation. But over the next century global climatic variability is predicted to in- crease, and Arab countries may well experience unprecedented extremes in climate. Temperatures may reach new highs, and in most places there may be a risk of less rainfall. Under these circumstances, Arab countries and their citizens will once again need to draw on their long experience of adapting to the environment to address the new challenges posed by climate change. Arab countries have already experienced the effects of a changing cli- mate; higher temperatures and extreme events such as drought and flash floods may well become the new norm. The year 2010 was already the warmest globally since records began in the late 1800s, with 19 countries setting new national temperature highs. Five of these were Arab coun- tries, including Kuwait, which set a new record at 52.6 °C in 2010, only to be followed by 53.5 °C in 2011. This report—prepared through a consultative process with Govern- ment and other stakeholders in the Arab World—assesses the potential effects of climate change on the Arab region and outlines possible ap- proaches and measures to prepare for its consequences. It offers ideas and suggestions for Arab policy makers as to what mitigating actions may be needed in rural and urban settings to safeguard key areas such as health, water, agriculture, and tourism. The report also analyzes the differing impacts of climate change, with special attention paid to gender, as a means of tailoring strategies to address specific vulnerabilities. xv xvi Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries The socioeconomic impact of climate change will likely vary from country to country, reflecting a country’s coping capacity and its level of development. Countries that are wealthier and more economically di- verse are generally expected to be more resilient. This finding is borne out by recent comparative research on the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen, which focused on the impact of climate vari- ability on income and poverty levels. Data show that over the next 30 to 40 years, if no compensating measures are taken, climate change may lead to a cumulative reduction in household incomes of about 7 percent in Syria and Tunisia, while the Republic of Yemen—mainly driven by a decline in agriculture—could potentially suffer a much larger reduction of 24 percent. While not addressed directly in this report, the impact of the ongoing conflict in Syria would likely add greater welfare losses and make the adaptation process even more difficult. Climate change may also affect water availability and its impacts (po- tentially severe) in both rural and urban areas. By 2050, water runoff is expected to decrease by 10 percent. The gains in agricultural productivity over the past two decades may slow and even decline after about 2050. Recurrent droughts may spur increased rural-to-urban migration, adding additional stress to the already overcrowded cities. Flash floods that result from intense storms may particularly affect cities; 500,000 people have already been affected by flash floods in Arab countries. The livelihoods of men and women are potentially at risk from cli- mate change. Men and women have different vulnerabilities, largely based on their respective roles in society. Men in rural areas are likely to follow the current trend of moving to cities to seek paid employment, because their traditional livelihoods have become unsustainable. Rural women would then face the double challenge of having to devote more time to daily activities, such as fetching scarce water, while assuming the farming and community responsibilities of the absent men. Left unad- dressed, these changes in the family structure have the potential of be- coming significant sources of stress. Actions taken to help both men and women understand and adapt to these changes at the household level are important regarding the possible policy responses. Women, with their pivotal role in societies, can be a major influence on the attitudes and behavior needed to accommodate new forms of livelihood and social organization. Women’s empowerment thus becomes a critical part of any adaptation strategy. Fortunately, Arab countries can take steps to reduce the impacts of climate change. This report outlines measures that may help reduce the region’s vulnerability and also contribute to more sustainable long-term development. The report offers an approach—an “Adaptation Pyramid Framework”—for strengthening public sector management in a chang- Foreword xvii ing climate, and assisting stakeholders in integrating climate risks and opportunities into all development activities. The report suggests that countries and households will need to diversify their production and income generation, integrate adaptation into all policy making and ac- tivities, and ensure a sustained national commitment to address the so- cial, economic, and environmental consequences of climate variability. With these coordinated efforts, the Arab world can, as it has for centu- ries, successfully adapt and adjust to the challenges of a changing climate. Inger Andersen Regional Vice President Middle East and North Africa Region The World Bank Preface The governments of Arab countries have, on various occasions, requested World Bank assistance to provide analytical and technical inputs that ad- dress the critical challenges facing development in a changing climate. Based on these requests, the World Bank is producing this flagship report in partnership with the League of Arab States (LAS) with the objective of providing information on climate change in the Arab region, as well as technical guidance on how to adapt to climate change. This report serves as an umbrella for addressing climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This task has three phases: Phase I is this regional flagship study on climate change adapta- tion in the Arab countries. In Phase II it is proposed that a selected num- ber of country-specific climate change strategies for client governments in the region (on an on-demand basis) be initiated. Additional regional research may be needed because the task in Phase I could not cover the many areas related to climate change. In Phase III, a number of lending operations would be prepared relating to climate change adaptation and new technology in Arab countries in the areas identified as priorities in Phases I and II. The Bank is already providing funding to MENA coun- tries through ongoing technical assistance and lending operations and the Climate Investment Fund. Participatory process: This report, produced by the World Bank in partnership with LAS, had inputs from partners in Arab countries, including researchers, institutions, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and advisers: • Researchers in Arab countries did considerable background work and were heavily involved in preparing papers and discussions of issues and opportunities. • The documents were posted on the web and on social media sites, which enabled the community at large to contribute and comment. xix xx Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries • The governments of Arab countries were invited to comment and con- tribute to the report as it was being drafted. • As part of this task a climate change network is being created. Scope: The scope of this report was agreed to and endorsed by: (i) LAS and regional researchers in July 2010, and (ii) Ministries of Environment in Arab countries at the Joint Committee on Environment and Develop- ment in the Arab Region (JCEDAR) meeting in October 2010. The report and background documents are expected to provide input to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assess- ment Report scheduled for 2013–14, which could lead to a comprehen- sive treatment of the Arab countries in that document. In addition, seven IPCC leading and coordinating authors are on this report’s team and advisory panel. This report and its associated activities are directed primarily to deci- sion makers in Arab countries in order to support and guide their efforts to adapt to the challenges of climate change. Work process • The first workshop was held January 2011 in Lebanon. The lead authors and advisers identified links between the topic areas, agreed upon a coordinated framework, and developed an annotated outline of the background paper for each chapter. • A zero draft of the chapters was provided by the lead authors by April 1, 2011, and was posted on the web for public review and com- ments. A number of contributing authors were selected, based on their substantial comments and suggestions, and were invited to col- laborate as co-authors of the paper and to participate in the second workshop. • The second workshop was a writing workshop held in the Marseille Centre in June 2011. The lead authors, IPCC experts, and other con- tributing authors compiled a first draft using inputs from the zero draft. • The World Bank Quality Enhancement Review was held Octo- ber 4, 2011, and the resulting draft report was then circulated by LAS to all member governments for comments, and then placed on the web for wider input. • Regional presentations and consultations on the report were held between October 2011 and January 2012. This provided an opportu- nity for the team to receive guidance from government officials, Preface xxi NGOs, and the private sector, based on their knowledge and experi- ence. Consultations were hosted by LAS/JCEDAR (Arab Republic of Egypt), Amman Institute for Urban Development/Greater Amman Municipality (Jordan), Ministry of the Environment/United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)/Issam Fares Institute at the American University of Beirut (Lebanon), Arab Forum for Environ- ment and Development Annual Conference (Lebanon), African De- velopment Bank (Tunisia), Ministries of Finance and Environment (United Arab Emirates), and Ministry of Environment (Algeria). Ad- ditional presentations were hosted by the Arab Water Council at the Second Arab Water Forum (Egypt); International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) at the Arab Food Security Conference (Lebanon); International Conference on Adaptation to Climate Change and Food Security in West Asia and North Africa (Kuwait); and finally, the Lebanese Ministry of Environment at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP17 (South Africa). • The third workshop was a writing workshop held in Tunisia, in January 2012. The lead authors and regional experts finalized the chapters and included the comments provided by the governments of Arab countries and other reviewers. • A World Bank Decision Meeting was held in March 2012; the re- sulting report was finalized after additional consultations in Lebanon and Jordan in May 2012. • The report will be available in print and online at www.world bank.org/publications. • In addition to this report, a climate change portal is being developed that will provide climate profiles for each of the Arab countries. Arab countries have been involved at every level of this project, from the lead authors and the research community contributing to the report, to the various consultations and workshops with climate change adap- tation specialists from Arab countries. Throughout this process, the authors and advisers have essentially become a community of practice for adaptation to climate change in the region. The team is grateful for the financial support from the European Commission (EC), the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA), and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), in addition to that of the League of Arab States and the World Bank. Acknowledgments The report was developed and managed by Dorte Verner (World Bank). Mme. Fatma El-Mallah (League of Arab States) and Ian Noble (World Bank) served as senior advisers. The team is grateful to contributions from the following lead and contributing authors. Chapter 1. Lead author: Dorte Verner (World Bank) and contributing authors Maximillian Ashwill (World Bank), Clemens Breisinger (Interna- tional Food Policy Research Institute—IFPRI), Jakob Kronik (World Bank), Ian Noble (World Bank), and Banu Seltur (World Bank). Chapter 2. Lead authors: Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Martin Stendel, Shuting Yang (Danish Meteorological Institute—DMI), con- tributing authors Ian Noble (World Bank) and Michael Westphal (World Bank). Chapter 3. Lead author: Hamed Assaf (American University of Beirut, Lebanon), and contributing authors Wadid Erian (Arab Center for Study of Arid Zones and Dry Lands, Syria), Raoudha Gafrej (University of Tunis El Manar, Tunisia), Sophie Herrmann (World Bank), Rachael McDonnell (International Center for Biosaline Agriculture, United Arab Emirates, Oxford University, UK), and Awni Taimeh (University of Jordan, Jordan). Chapter 4. Lead authors: Rachael McDonnell (International Center for Biosaline Agriculture, United Arab Emirates; Oxford University, UK) and Shoaib Ismail (International Center for Biosaline Agriculture, United Arab Emirates), and contributing authors Rami Abu Salman (IFAD), Julian Lampietti (World Bank), Maurice Saade (World Bank), William Sutton (World Bank), and Christopher Ward (IAIS, University of Exeter, UK). Chapter 5. Lead authors: Amal Dababseh (Amman Institute for Urban Development/Greater Amman Municipality, Jordan) and Kristina Katich (World Bank) and contributing authors Maximillian Ashwill (World Bank), Hamed Assaf (American University of Beirut, Lebanon), Hesham Bassioni (Arab Academy of Science, Egypt), Tim Carrington (World Bank), Ibrahim Abdel Gelil (Arabian Gulf University, Bahrain), and Mohamed El Raey (Alexandria University, Egypt). xxiii xxiv Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Chapter 6. Lead authors: Marina Djernaes (World Bank) and Mme. Fatma El-Mallah (League of Arab States). Chapter 7. Lead author: Sarah Grey (International Center for Biosa- line Agriculture and Dubai School of Government Gender and Public Policy Program, United Arab Emirates), and contributing authors Maxi- millian Ashwill (World Bank), Fidaa Haddad (International Union for Conservation of Nature, Jordan), Grace Menck Figueroa, and Sanne Tikjøb (World Bank). Chapter 8. Lead author: Rima R. Habib (American University of Bei- rut, Lebanon) and contributing authors Enis Baris and Tamer Rabie (World Bank). Chapter 9. Lead author: Dorte Verner (World Bank) and contributing authors Rami Abu Salman (IFAD), Kulsum Ahmed (World Bank), Hamed Assaf (American University of Beirut, Lebanon), Amal Dababseh (Amman Institute for Urban Development/Greater Amman Municipali- ty, Jordan), Marina Djernaes (World Bank), Mme. Fatma El-Mallah (League of Arab States), Wadid Erian (Arab Center for Study of Arid Zones and Dry Lands, Syria), Raoudha Gafrej (University of Tunis El Manar, Tunisia), Habiba Gitay (World Bank), Sarah Grey (International Center for Biosaline Agriculture and Dubai School of Government Gender and Public Policy Program, United Arab Emirates), Rima R. Habib (American University of Beirut, Lebanon), Jens Hesselbjerg Chris- tensen (Danish Meteorological Institute—DMI), Shoaib Ismail (International Center for Biosaline Agriculture, United Arab Emirates), Kristina Katich (World Bank), Tamara Levine (World Bank), Andrew Losos (World Bank), Rachael McDonnell (International Center for Biosaline Agriculture, United Arab Emirates), Grace Menck Figueroa (World Bank), Ian Noble (World Bank), Noemí Padrón Fumero (Uni- versidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain), Tamer Rabie (World Bank), Martin Stendel (DMI), and Shuting Yang (DMI). The lead authors of the Disaster Risk Management Spotlight (1) were Aditi Banerjee (World Bank), Mme. Fatma El-Mallah (League of Arab States, Egypt), Wadid Erian (Arab Center for Study of Arid Zones and Dry Lands, Syria), and contributing author Hesham Bassioni (Regional Center for Disaster Risk Reduction, Egypt). The lead authors of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Spotlight (2) were Raoudha Gafrej (University of Tunis El Manar, Tunisia) and Habiba Gitay (World Bank); and the contributing authors were Rami Abu Salman (IFAD), Hamed Assaf (American University Beirut, Lebanon), and Balgis Osman-Elasha (AfDB, Sudan). The team is grateful for the ideas, comments, and contributions pro- vided by the advisers on this report: Ibrahim Abdel Gelil (Arabian Gulf University, Bahrain), Rami Abu Salman (IFAD), Emad Adly (Arab Net- Acknowledgments xxv work for Environment and Development—RAED, Egypt), Hesham Bassioni (Regional Center for Disaster Risk Reduction, Egypt), Wadid Erian (Arab Center for Study of Arid Zones and Drylands, Syria), Nadim Khouri (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia—ESCWA, Lebanon), Rami Khouri (Issam Fares Institute, Ameri- can University Beirut—IFI-AUB, Lebanon), Karim Makdisi (IFI-AUB, Lebanon), Mohammed Messouli (University of Marrakech, Morocco), Ziad Mimi (Birzeit University, West Bank and Gaza), Balgis Osman- Elasha (AfDB, Sudan), Najib Saab (Arab Forum for Environment and Development—AFED, Lebanon), and Shahira Wahbi (League of Arab States, Egypt). The team is grateful to peer reviewers Marianne Fay (SDNVP), Erick C.M. Fernandes (LCSAR), and John Nash (LCSSD), as well as to the Chair of the Quality Enhancement Review and the Decision Meeting, Caroline Freund (MNACE). The team appreciates the comments, ideas, and contributions received from the following: Yasser Mohammad Abd Al-Rahman (QHSE, Egypt), Perrihan Al-Riffai (IFPRI), Shardul Agrawala (OECD), Hala Al-Dosari (independent writer, Saudi Arabia), Haithem Ali (Amman Institute for Urban Development, Jordan), Salahadein Alzien (S.D.C., Libya), Nabeya Arafa (Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency—EEAA, Egypt), Ruby Assad (GIZ Senior Advisor), Carina Bachofen (Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Center), JoAnn Carmin (MIT, United States), Coastal Research Institute (CoRI, Egypt), Roshan Cooke (IFAD), Leila Dagher (American University Beirut, Lebanon), Suraje Dessai (University of Exeter, UK), Kamel Djemouai (Ministry of Environment, Algeria), Olivier Ecker (IFPRI), Jauad El Kharraz (EMWIS/Water Information Systems, France), Hacene Farouk (Ministry of Environment, Algeria), Jose Funes (IFPRI), Mohamed Konna El Karim (League of Arab States, Egypt), Bouchta El Moumni (Université A. ESSAÂDI, Morocco), Ahmed Farouk (Center for Development Services, Egypt), Bence Fülöp (Trinity Enviro, Hungary), Samia Galal Saad (High Institute of Public Health—Alexan- dria University, Egypt), Raja Gara (AfDB), Benjamin Garnaud (Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales—IDDRI, France), Brendan Gillespie (OECD), Hilary Gopnik (Emory University, United States), Flora Ijjas (Trinity Enviro, Hungary), Steen Lau Jor- gensen (World Bank), Vahakn Kabakian (Ministry of Environment, Leb- anon), Léa Kai Aboujaoudé (Ministry of Environment, Lebanon), Jack Kalpakian (Al Akhawayn University Ifrane, Morocco), Jakob Kronik (F7 Consult), Jeffrey Lecksell (World Bank), Hassan Machlab (ICARDA, Lebanon), Seeme Mallick (ONE UN Joint Programme on Environment, Pakistan), Carla Mellor (ICBA), George Mitri (University of Balamand, Lebanon), Amal Mosharrafieh (AFED, Lebanon), Adrian Muller (ETH xxvi Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Zurich, Switzerland), Manal Nader (University of Balamand, Lebanon), Cristina Narbona (OECD), Frode Neergaard (OECD), Gerald Nelson (IFPRI), Asif Niazi (WFP, Egypt), Michele Nori (Independent Consul- tant on Agro-pastoral Livelihoods), Remy Paris (OECD), Noemí Padrón Fumero (Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain), Taoufik Rajhi (AfDB), Ricky Richardson (IFPRI), Richard Robertson (IFPRI), Saloua Rochdane (University of Marrakech, Morocco), Abdul-Rahman Saghir (Lebanon), Idllalène Samira (Université Cadi Ayyad, Morocco), Saeed Shami (IUCN), William Stebbins (World Bank), Nathalie Sulmont (OECD), Rianne C. ten Veen (Islamic Relief Worldwide, UK), Naoufel Telahigue (IFAD), Rainer Thiele (Kiel Institute for the World Econ- omy—IfW, Germany), Manfred Wiebelt (IfW, Germany) Robert Wilby (Loughborough University, UK), Tingju Zhu (IFPRI), and Samira al- Zoughbi (National Agricultural Policy Center, Syria). The team is grateful for comments and suggestions provided during presentations of initial ideas to the final consultations. Particularly we would like to thank the Ministries of Environment representatives from all the Arab countries and others present at the Joint Committee on Environment and Development in the Arab Region (JCEDAR), at the League of Arab States in October 2010 and 2011. We would also like to thank the Executive Directors of the World Bank from the Arab coun- tries and their teams that guided us during the presentation at the World Bank in September 2011. Finally we would like to thank all invitees from all the Arab countries who participated in the consultations and the prep- aration of the report, including at the OECD, the Marseille Center for Mediterranean Integration (CMI), the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESWUA), and at the side event hosted by the government of Lebanon at the COP 17 in Durban. The team gratefully acknowledges the helpful comments, ideas, and guidance from these individuals regarding global knowledge at the World Bank: Biesan Abu Kwaik, Hafed Al-Ghwell, Shamshad Akhtar, Sameer Akbar, Inger Andersen, Abdulhamid Azad, Anthony Bigio, Sidi Boubacar, Franck Bousquet, Marjory-Anne Bromhead, Ato Brown, Kevin Carey, Nadereh Chamlou, Diana Chung, Luis Constantino, Bekele Debele Negewo, Moira Enerva, Marcos Ghattas, Grace Hemmings-Gapihan, Santiago Herrera, Dan Hoornweg, Imane Ikkez, Gabriella Izzi, Willem Janssen, Junaid Kamal Ahmed, Mats Karlsson, Claire Kfouri, Hoonae Kim, Yoshiharu Kobayashi, Julian Lampietti, Hedi Larbi, Dale Lauten- bach, Qun Li, Dahlia Lotayef, Laszlo Lovei, Ida Mori, Thoko Moyo, Dylan Murray, Lara Saade, Alaa Sarhan, Banu Setlur, William Sutton, Eileen Brainne Sullivan, Deepali Tewari, David Treguer, Jonathan Wal- ters, and Andrea Zanon. Acknowledgments xxvii The team would also like to thank Marie-Francoise How Yew Kin, Josephine Onwuemene, Salenna Prince, Indra Raja, and Perry Radford for assisting the team very effectively throughout the process of the task, and Hilary Gopnik for editing and providing input. We would also like to thank Susan Graham, Daniel Nikolits, and Nora Ridolfi, all from the World Bank’s Office of the Publisher, for efficiently managing the pro- duction of the publication. Additional thanks go to the country offices’ staff for their support of our workshop and consultations: Faten Abdulfat- tah, Rola Assi, Zeina El Khalil, Lana Mourtada, Mohammed A. Sharief, Steve Tinegate, Natalie Abu-Ata, Claire Ciosi, Margarita Gaillochet, Olivier Lavinal, Mona Yafi, and Sabrina Zitouni (Center for Mediterra- nean Integration—CMI); and Eileen Murray. We extend final thanks to Chedly Rais and Narsreddine Jomma (OKIANOS, Tunisia). The core World Bank team who worked on the task includes Johanne Holten, Kristina Katich, Tamara Levine, Grace Menck Figueroa, Dylan Murray, Ian Noble, Sanne Agnete Tikjoeb, and Dorte Verner. Contributors Hamed Assaf is an Arab water resource management specialist who fo- cuses on climate change and sustainability issues. He participated in sev- eral international and regional water resources and climate change initia- tives involving several international organizations including the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, the World Bank, the World Meteorological Organization, and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). He was a professor of water resources engineering at the American University of Beirut from 2003–11. Before this he was a senior water and risk analysis engineer at BC Hydro in Canada. He re- ceived his Ph.D. in civil engineering (water resources) from the Univer- sity of British Columbia, Canada. Aditi Banerjee is a Disaster Risk Management (DRM) specialist at the World Bank in the Middle East and North Africa region. She specializes in building institutional capacities and structures, particularly at local lev- els. Her experience in DRM includes work on the tsunami floods in India in 2005, the 2008 floods in the Republic of Yemen, and the L’Aquila earthquake in Italy in 2009. Before this Banerjee was Project Officer at the Environment Division of the UNDP in India. She holds a Master’s degree in Public Policy and Econometrics from the George Washington University and a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from Delhi University. Hesham Bassioni is a professor of maritime transport and technology at the Arab Academy of Science in Alexandria, Arab Republic of Egypt. He is also the Executive Director of the Cairo-based Regional Center for Disaster Risk Reduction. Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen is the scientific head at the Danish Climate Centre at the Danish Meteorological Institute and Director for xxix xxx Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries the Centre for Regional Change in the Earth System. He has been a lead author or coordinating lead author on previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and is currently a coordinating lead author of the 5th IPCC assessment report due in 2013/14. He has a long scientific background in the field of regional climate change and has pub- lished more than 70 peer-reviewed articles in scientific journals. He holds a Ph.D. in Astrophysics from the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen. Amal Aldababseh is a climate change and disaster risk reduction expert. She currently manages a consultancy firm that supports government in climate change and disaster risk reduction. She has worked as an interna- tional consultant for the World Bank and UNDP. When this book was being written, she was the Director of Sustainable Development at the Amman Institute for Urban Development and Greater Amman Munici- pality. Aldababseh has previous worked with the local nongovernmental organizations and UNDP in Jordan, becoming the Head of Environment and Energy Unit and the Disaster Risk Reduction Focal Point in 2007. She holds a B.S. with honors from the Hashemite University of Jordan and a M.S. with honors in Environmental Science and Management from the University of Jordan. Marina Djernaes is an environmental consultant for the World Bank. She formerly held the positions of Finance Director at Greenpeace and Senior Advisor at the Danish Embassy in Washington, DC. Before that, she held several positions relating to strategic corporate management. Djernaes holds an MBA from American University and a Master’s degree in Environmental Science and Policy from Johns Hopkins University. Mme Fatma El Mallah has been an Advisor to the Secretary General of the League of Arab States on Climate Change. She joined the General Secretariat of the League of Arab States in 1974 and became a Senior Economist in 1990. She was Director of Environment, Housing and Sus- tainable Development as well as Director of the Technical Secretariat of the Council of Arab Ministries Responsible for the Environment from 1994–2009. She earned a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from Cairo University in 1967 and a Master’s degree in Economics from the Ameri- can University in Cairo in 1971. Wadid Erian is a professor of soil science and Acting Director of the Land and Water Use Division at the Arab Center for the Study of Arid Zones and Dry Lands in the Syrian Arab Republic. He is the team leader in several projects for soils, land use, land degradation, and drought stud- Contributors xxxi ies. He is the Environment Coordinator for the League of Arab States’ Summit of South American-Arab Countries. He was a lead author on the IPCC “Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation” (SREX) report and has frequently provided expertise to the League of Arab States. He is also part of the Advisory Board for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Raoudha Gafrej is a water expert and assistant professor. Working as a hydraulic engineer in Tunisia, she has more than 15 years of experience as a national and international expert on water management, with a focus on economic and environmental aspects. She was involved in several stra- tegic studies with the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) and the Islamic Development Bank and has contributed to both the development of the Tunisian strategy for agriculture and ecosystems ad- aptation to climate change and to the Tunisian national climate change strategy. In 2002, Gafrej joined the faculty of the University of Tunis El Manar, where she is currently an assistant professor at the Higher Insti- tute of Applied Biological Sciences of Tunis. She holds a Ph.D. in Earth Science from Pierre and Marie Curie University in Paris. Habiba Gitay is a Senior Environmental Specialist in the Environment Department of the World Bank. Before joining the World Bank, she was a Senior Research Fellow and Lecturer at the Australian National Uni- versity working on sustainable development and ecosystem management. Her experience includes being a convening lead author for chapters re- lated to ecosystems, impacts of climate change, and adaptation options in five IPCC reports; lead author and capacity development lead on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; Vice-Chair of the Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel of the Global Environment Facility; and con- sultant to various environment-related conventions. She has a Ph.D. in Ecology from University of Wales. Sarah Grey is a researcher on gender and development, specializing in the Arab world. She is currently a visiting scholar at the Centre for Mid- dle Eastern Studies at Lund University, Sweden, and a non-resident re- search associate with the Gender and Public Policy Program at the Dubai School of Government. When this book was being written, she was also a researcher at the International Center for Biosaline Agriculture in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. She has undertaken research on gender- related topics in Arab countries, including gender and development, gen- der and globalization, gender and public policy, and Muslim women’s historical roles. She holds an M.Phil. in modern Middle East studies from xxxii Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries the University of Oxford and a B.A. in Arabic and Middle East studies from the University of Exeter. Rima R. Habib is an Associate Professor of Environmental and Occupa- tional Health in the Faculty of Health Sciences at the American Univer- sity of Beirut. Recently, she authored a chapter in the book Ecohealth Re- search in Practice: Innovative Applications of an Ecosystem Approach to Health (2012). Besides peer-reviewed articles, he has also authored a number of policy briefs, one of which focused on addressing climate change and health research in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Habib has con- sulted for international organizations, including carrying out a study for the International Labour Organization on the occupational health and safety situation in 18 Arab countries. Habib currently assumes the posi- tion of Chair on the Technical Committee of Gender and Work at the International Ergonomics Association. Shoaib Ismail is a research scientist in agronomy and university educa- tor. He has more than 30 years of experience in integrated water resource management, with a focus on optimizing agricultural research and devel- opment under marginal conditions. Recently, his focus has been on the agriculture and water sector in relation to climate change. He currently works at the International Center for Biosaline Agriculture, and before this he was Associate Professor in the Department of Botany, University of Karachi, Pakistan. Ismail holds a Ph.D. in Plant Physiology from the University of Karachi. Kristina Katich specializes in climate adaptation and disaster risk man- agement for cities. She is trained as an architect and urban planner. Since 2009 she has consulted for the World Bank, and has worked on urban and environmental issues in the Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and East Asia and Pacific regions. Before joining the World Bank, Katich volunteered in the United States Peace Corps, where she spent two years building rural water systems in the Dominican Re- public. She holds a graduate degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Department of Urban Studies and Planning. Rachael A. McDonnell is a water policy and governance scientist at the International Center for Biosaline Agriculture (ICBA) and a senior re- search scientist with the University of Oxford’s Water Futures Group. Before joining ICBA, she was the course director for the MSc in Water Science, Policy and Management at Oxford. She is currently the Moni- toring Agriculture and Water Resources Development program leader, a USAID-funded initiative in partnership with NASA’s Goddard Space Contributors xxxiii Flight Center, through which regional- and country-scale modeling of water resources and agricultural water use is being developed under cur- rent and future climate change conditions. She has also led projects on water governance, policy and regulation, and advised various Middle Eastern governments on future water policy directions. She holds a Ph.D. in geography from the University of Oxford. Ian Noble is a climate change specialist and has recently been a member of the Climate Change and the World Development Report teams at the World Bank, with particular responsibility for the Bank’s activities in ad- aptation to climate change. Before this he was Professor of Global Change Research at the Australian National University. He has played senior roles in the IPCC process, which prepares scientific assessments relevant to climate policy, and in international cooperative research on climate change as part of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. In Australia he participated in the public and policy debate over responses to climate change and served as a Commissioner in an inquiry into the fu- ture of the Australian forests and forest industries. Martin Stendel is a senior researcher at the Danish Climate Centre of the Danish Meteorological Institute. His expertise is on modeling climate and climate change with a focus on Africa and the Arctic, and he has au- thored or co-authored several publications in journals, as book chapters, and in scientific assessments. Further, he serves as editor for three scien- tific journals. He has been appointed as expert advisor in the Third World Academy of Sciences project on climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa and is currently serving as project leader, contributor, and supervisor for Ph.D. students in several projects in eastern and southern Africa. He holds a Ph.D. in Meteorology from the University of Cologne, Germany. Dorte Verner is the Climate Coordinator and Senior Economist in the World Bank’s Middle East and North Africa Region. Before taking on this position, she led the Social Implications of Climate Change program in the Latin America and the Caribbean Region. She has developed and led many World Bank projects and published extensively in the areas of poverty, rural issues, and climate change. She has written books and pa- pers on poverty, labor markets, indigenous peoples, youth-at-risk issues, and climate change. Before she joined the World Bank, she worked in the Development Center of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and as a researcher at the European University Insti- tute in Florence and the Sorbonne in Paris. She holds a Ph.D. in Macro- economics and Econometrics from the European University Institute, xxxiv Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Italy, and a postgraduate degree in Economics from the University of Aarhus, Denmark. Shuting Yang is a senior scientist at the Danish Climate Centre in Dan- ish Meteorological Institute. She has research experience in the areas of climate modeling, climate variability, and climate change. Her research interests cover atmospheric circulation regimes, climate sensitivity and feedbacks, and climate prediction and projections with both the idealized/ simplified circulation model and general circulation models. She has pub- lished several articles in academic journals, and is a contributing author to Climate Impacts on Energy Systems: Key Issues for Energy Sector Adaptation, published by the World Bank and the Energy Sector Management As- sistance Program. Yang holds a B.A. in Meteorology from Beijing Uni- versity, China, and a Ph.D. in Meteorology from Stockholm University, Sweden. Abbreviations AFED Arab Forum for Environment and Development AI Aridity Index AOGCM atmosphere-ocean global climate model AR4 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report AR5 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report ASDRR Arab Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction BREEAM Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method CCA climate change adaptation CGE computable general equilibrium CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project COMET Community, Energy, and Technology (project) (West Bank and Gaza) COP Conference of Parties CORDEX Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment DALY disability-adjusted life year DELP Desert Ecosystems and Livelihoods Project (Jordan) DRM disaster risk management DRR disaster risk reduction EBA ecosystem-based assessment ECA&D European Climate Assessment and Dataset EMR Eastern Mediterranean Region (WHO) EMRO Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office (WHO) ESM earth system model GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GCM global circulation model GDP gross domestic product GFCS Global Framework for Climate Services GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GGCA Global Gender and Climate Alliance GIS geographic information system xxxv xxxvi Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries GIZ German Agency for International Cooperation GTZ German Agency for Technical Cooperation GWP Global Water Partnership HFA Hyogo Framework for Action ICPAC IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre IDPs internally displaced people IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development INDH National Initiative for Human Development (Morocco) IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRI International Research Institute for Climate and Society ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management LAS League of Arab States LDCs least developed countries LEED Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design MAWRED Modeling and Monitoring Agriculture and Water Resources Development (program) MMD multimodel data set NAO North Atlantic Oscillation NAPA UN National Adaptation Programme of Action NFC Nile Forecast Center NGO nongovernmental organization OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD-DAC Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Development Assistance Committee PDNA postdisaster needs assessment PES payment for ecosystem services PTOLEMY Planning, Transport, and Land Use for the Middle East Economy PV photovoltaic RAED Arab Network for Environment and Development RCM regional climate model RDM robust decision making RCP representative concentration pathway RREE rural renewable energy electrification SEA strategic environmental assessment SOI Southern Oscillation Index SRES IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios SWOT strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats Abbreviations xxxvii UfW Unaccounted-for water UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNWTO United Nations World Tourist Organization VWC village water committee WG weather generator WHO World Health Organization WISP Water Information Systems Platform WMO World Meteorological Organization IBRD 39626 10°W 30°E 50°E 40°N ATLANTIC Algiers Tunis SYRIAN OCEAN Mediter Rabat TUNISIA ranean Sea LEB EBA LEBANO LEBANON N N ARAB REP. IRAQ ANON West Bank Beirut Damascus Tripoli Baghdad and Gaza Amman MOROCCO ALGERIA 30°N Cairo KUWAIT JORDAN Kuwait LI LIBY LIBYA YA LIBY ARAB SAUDI BAHRAIN REP. OF QATAR ARABIA Manama EGYPT Riyadh Doha Abu Dhabi Muscat Re d UNITED ARAB 20°N MAURITANIA EMIRATES 20°N OMAN Se Nouakchott a SUDAN REP. OF Khartoum Sana'a YEMEN DJIBOUTI Djibouti 10°N 10°N SOUTH SUDAN SOMALIA Juba ATLANTIC OCEAN Mogadishu 0° 0° INDIAN OCEAN MAIN ROADS This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information NATIONAL CAPITALS shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank 10°S INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any 10°S endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Moroni COMOROS COM OS ORO COMORO 0 500 Kilometers 10°W 0° 10°E NOVEMBER 2012 Overview Climate Has Shaped the Cultures of Arab Countries The first settlements in the world—farming communities and cities—began in this region, and all of them have changed in re- sponse to the variable climate. For thousands of years, the people of this region have coped with the challenges of climate variability by adapt- ing their survival strategies to changes in rainfall and temperature. But the message is clear: over the next century this variability will increase and the climate of Arab countries will experience unprecedented extremes. Temperatures will reach new highs, and in most places there will be less rainfall. Water availability will be reduced, and with a growing popula- tion, the already water-scarce region may not have sufficient supplies to irrigate crops, support industry, or provide drinking water. Fortunately, Arab countries can take steps to reduce climate change impacts and build resilience. In many cases, climate change is bringing attention to issues that were overlooked before. For example, low quality urban drainage systems have contributed to flooding in some Arab cities, and the threat of more flooding from climate change could be the impetus needed to finally improve this infrastructure. In rural areas, climate change is forcing communities to rethink long-standing gender roles that have perpetuated gender inequality. As a result, climate change presents many opportunities, not only to reduce vulnerability, but also to contribute to greater long-term development. Climate change is happening now in the Arab countries. The year 2010 was the warmest since the late 1800s, when this data began to be collected, with 19 countries setting new national temperature highs. Five of these were Arab countries, including Kuwait, which set a record high of 52.6°C in 2010, only to be followed by 53.5°C in 2011. Extreme cli- mate events are widely reported in local media, and a 2009 Arab region survey showed that over 90 percent of the people sampled agree that cli- mate change is occurring and is largely due to human activities; 84 per- cent believe it is a serious challenge for their countries; and respondents 1 2 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries were evenly split on whether their governments were acting appropri- ately to address climate change issues. The sample came mostly from the better-educated population, but it shows that there is a firm base and desire for action regarding climate change across the Arab region. Water scarcity will increasingly be a challenge in the Arab coun- tries. The Arab region has the lowest freshwater resource endowment in the world. All but four Arab countries (Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan) suffer from “chronic water scarcity,” and over half of countries fall below the “absolute water scarcity” threshold. It is estimated that climate change will reduce water runoff by 10 percent by 2050. Currently, the region suffers a water deficit (demand is greater than supply), and with increasing populations and per capita water use, de- mand is projected to increase further, by 60 percent, by 2045. Climate change will likely reduce agricultural production in Arab countries. Projections suggest that the rate of increase in agricultural production will slow over the next few decades, and it may start to decline after about 2050. Most of the Mediterranean region, which supports 80 percent of production, is projected to have less rainfall and hotter condi- tions. This will increase water use and likely limit the productivity of some crops. Other areas, such as the Nile Delta, will have to contend with saline intrusion from the sea. Farmers will face additional problems from higher temperatures. For example, the chilling requirements for some fruits may not be met; new pests will emerge; and soil fertility is likely to decline. This is alarming because almost half of the Arab region’s popula- tion lives in rural areas, and 40 percent of employment is derived from agriculture. Compounding this vulnerability are troubling poverty rates: 34 percent of the rural population is poor, and unemployment is high, especially for women and youth. Urban populations are rapidly growing. Currently 56 percent of Arab people live in urban centers, and by 2050 these populations will in- crease to 75 percent. Droughts have been shown to increase rural-to- urban migration in the region. A recent multi-year drought in the Syrian Arab Republic is estimated to have led to the migration of about one million people to informal settlements around the major cities. Many cities are already experiencing severe housing shortages because of this urban population growth. Urban areas are vulnerable to climate change. Flash flooding is increasing in cities across the region as a result of more intense rainfall events, concrete surfaces that do not absorb water, inadequate and blocked drainage systems, and increased construction in low-lying areas and wadis. The number of people affected by flash floods has doubled over the last ten years to 500,000 people across the region. Climate change projec- tions suggest that average temperatures in the Arab countries are likely to Overview 3 increase by up to 3°C by 2050. The urban heat island effect is projected to increase nighttime temperatures by an additional 3°C. In addition, pro- viding water to urban areas is becoming increasingly difficult. Reasons for this include aging pipes, water loss from leakage of 40 percent or more in some major cities, and no water infrastructure in informal settlements. Climate change threatens tourism, an important source of reve- nue and jobs. Tourism today contributes about US$50 billion per year to the Arab region, which is about 3 percent of its total gross domestic product (GDP), and tourism is projected to grow by about 3.3 percent per year for the next 20 years. It is also an important sector for jobs, because roughly 6 percent of the region’s employment is tourism related. Higher temperatures are an obvious threat to tourism in a region that is already regarded as hot. Analyses of tourism patterns suggest that in the long- term, destinations on the north Mediterranean coast or within Europe will become more attractive than will the Arab region. Snowfall in Leba- non (for skiing), Red Sea coral reefs, and many ancient monuments across the region are threatened by climate change and severe weather. Ecotour- ism is an expanding sector, but the ecosystems (coral reefs, mountains, and oases) on which it depends will have to be managed carefully as they adjust to a changing climate. Extreme events, such as heavy rains, or more chronic pressures, such as increased salinity in groundwater, can threaten the region’s historic buildings, paintings, and artifacts. Some destinations, such as Alexandria, will be further threatened by seawater inundation as sea levels rise. In most cases, there is already a need to better conserve and protect these cultural sites. Climate change increases its urgency. Climate change threatens progress to achieve gender equity in the Arab region. Men and women possess unique vulnerabilities to cli- mate change impacts, largely based on their respective roles in society. However, in the majority of cases, rural women tend to be vulnerable in more ways than are rural men. Climate change will further affect rural livelihoods, and more men will feel obligated to move to cities to seek paid employment, which is mostly unskilled and temporary, with little secu- rity, low wages, crowded living conditions, and poor health support. As a result, on top of their already heavy workload of domestic tasks and local natural resource management, rural women assume the departed male’s community role, but with additional challenges. Women tend to have less education; they find travel difficult because of cultural norms, pregnancy, and child care; and women often lack the cultural and legal authority to assert their rights. For example, their access to credit might be limited, access to and control of water is usually ceded to the landowner—rarely a woman—and even access to rural organizations and support systems is often thwarted. Women’s representation in Arab governments is only 9 percent, or half of the global average. 4 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Women are active agents of adaptation. Because of their central role in family, household, and rural activities, women are in a position to change the attitudes, behaviors, and livelihoods that are needed for suc- cessful adaptation. A focus on gender is not an add-on to policy formula- tion but an essential part of any development strategy. Effective adapta- tion can only be achieved if the many barriers to gender equity are removed and, in particular, women are empowered to contribute. While women still have a literacy rate 15 percent lower than men and little voice in deci- sion making, there is evidence that this is changing. For example, in some Gulf countries, more women than men graduate from universities. The impacts of climate change on human health are varied and often indirect. Higher temperatures are known to lead directly to in- creased morbidity (deaths) through heat stress and indirectly to strokes and heart-related deaths. Warmer conditions also affect the geographic range of disease vectors, such as mosquitoes. A warmer climate will ex- pose new human populations to diseases, such as malaria and dengue, for which they are unprepared. In the Arab region, disruptions to existing agricultural practices will lead to more widespread malnutrition, because of higher food prices and greater exposure to diseases and other health problems—especially if greater migration to unsanitary, informal settle- ments is triggered. The impacts of malnutrition on children are parti- cularly troublesome because they lead not only to increased child mor- tality, but also to developmental and long-term physical and mental impediments. While experts agree on climatic trends, it is less clear what the socioeconomic impacts of climate change will be. The diverse Arab region includes six least developed countries (LDCs) with predominantly rural populations and an annual per capita GDP as low as US$600 (So- malia). By comparison, the GDP in Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates is more than US$50,000 per capita annually, with 80–90 per- cent of the people living in cities. It is likely that all economies will be increasingly affected by climate change as time passes. This is illustrated by background case studies prepared for this report on income, liveli- hoods, well-being, and poverty in Syria, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen. Nevertheless, results show that over the next 30–40 years, climate change is likely to lead to a cumulative reduction in household incomes of about 7 percent in Syria and Tunisia, and 24 percent in the Republic of Yemen. Arab countries can take action to reduce their vulnerability to cli- mate change. For example, this report proposes an Adaptation Pyramid (figure 1) Framework that assists stakeholders in Arab countries in inte- grating climate risks and opportunities into development activities. It is based on an adaptive management approach, but it also highlights the Overview 5 FIGURE 1 The Adaptation Pyramid: A Framework for Action on Climate Change Adaptation Leadership and political commitment Monitor outcomes ᮡ ᮡ (Re-)Assess climate risks and opportunities Implement responses in sectors and regions ᮡ ᮡ Prioritize options Source: Authors. importance of leadership, without which adaptation efforts are unlikely to achieve the necessary commitment to be successful. The framework be- gins by assessing climate risks and opportunities and identifying options within the context of other development planning. The next step is to identify and prioritize adaptation options within the context of national, regional, and local priorities. Finally, adaptation responses will be imple- mented and outcomes monitored over time. It is important to take into account the long-term consequences of these decisions, because short- term responses may not be efficient or could lead to maladaptive out- comes. Other important measures for Arab region policy makers to im- plement are discussed below. 1. Facilitate the development of publicly accessible and reliable in- formation related to climate change. Access to quality weather and climate data is essential for policy making. Without reliable data on temperature and precipitation levels, it is difficult to assess the current climate and make reliable weather forecasts and climate predictions. For example, information on river flows, groundwater levels, and wa- ter quality and salinity is critical for assessing current and future water availability. However, climate stations across most of the Arab region are very limited compared to most other parts of the world and what data exists is often not digitized or publicly available. Conflict in parts of the region disrupts both the collection and sharing of data. Informa- tion on food production and the main food supply chains (such as 6 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries changes in agricultural yields and production for important crops, for- age, and livestock) needs to be linked with weather and water data to better monitor and understand the effects of a changing climate. In addition, socioeconomic data (including household and census data) and other economic data related to the labor market and production should be collected and made available. 2. Build climate resilience through social protection and other measures. Resilience is determined by factors such as an individual’s age, gender, and health status, or a household’s asset base and degree of integration with the market economy. Underinvestment in social safety nets—public services such as water supply and wastewater treat- ment, and housing and infrastructure—make people more vulnerable to a changing climate. Further, there should be measures in place to ensure equitable access to health care and a quality education. Such social protection measures include insurance schemes, pensions, ac- cess to credit, cash transfer programs, relocation programs, and other forms of social assistance. These investments and instruments facili- tate economic and social inclusion, which creates co-benefits between adaptation and development goals. 3. Develop a supportive policy and institutional framework for adaptation. Basic conditions for effective development, such as the rule of law, transparency and accountability, participatory decision- making structures, and reliable public service delivery that meets in- ternational quality standards are conducive to effective development and adaptation action. In addition, climate change adaptation requires new or revised climate-smart policies and structures at all levels. Sound adaptation planning, strong governmental/nongovern- mental cooperation, and plentiful financial resources are all impor- tant for building resilience to climate change. Developing national adaptation strategies are important for prioritizing adaptation activities that respond to urgent and immediate needs, and for setting forth guiding principals in the effort to cope with climate change. National govern- ments have a key role in developing these strategies and as a result play an important role in promoting collaboration and cooperation. This coop- eration should include the government, civil society, the private sector, and international institutions. Within governments, inter-ministerial co- ordination is especially critical, because adaptation responses often re- quire activities involving multiple ministries and sectors. Finally, to do any of the activities above it is important to secure the necessary financial resources. There are many sources for adaptation funding, but first the Arab countries will need to build their capacity to analyze their financial needs and generate and manage these resources. Overview 7 By nature, adaptation to climate change is a dynamic process, and so is the governance of adaptation. Political change, including those changes originating from the Arab Spring, can provide an opportunity to increase civil society participation in adaptation governance and a move toward a more inclusive approach to addressing climate change issues and building climate resilience. This report is about climate change, its impacts on people, the systems upon which we depend, and how we might adapt to climate change. It highlights a number of issues and areas that are being affected by climate change. One important message of this report is that climate change should be taken into account in all activities—however, this re- port cannot provide solutions or options for all issues. For example, the transboundary water issues are already being addressed by international task forces; this report can deal only with how climate change might affect their decisions. Anticipation of climate change can be the stimulus for improving interventions and accelerating action, which has been seen in countries such as Australia, where water laws and management were ex- tensively changed in response to a prolonged drought and the anticipa- tion of further climate change issues. This report can be used as a road map. This report seeks to provide, for the first time, a coherent assessment of the implications of climate change to the Arab region and the resultant risks, opportunities, and ac- tions needed. The information highlighted within explains the potential impacts of climate change and the adaptation responses needed in key sectors such as water, agriculture, tourism, gender, and health, as well as in urban and rural settings. This report attempts to advance the discus- sion by providing adaptation guidance to policy makers in Arab countries. It does this in three ways. First, it proposes the Adaptation Pyramid Framework on how to move forward on this agenda. Second, it presents a typology of policy approaches relevant to the region, which would fa- cilitate effective policy responses by decision makers. Third, a matrix is provided, which outlines key policy recommendations from each of the chapters. CHAPTER 1 Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries A Harsh Environment Has Shaped the Cultures in the Region Climate change is a defining element of today’s development challenges. In Arab countries1 and around the world, climate change is already dam- aging people’s livelihoods and well-being. It is a threat to poverty reduc- tion and economic growth and may unravel many of the development gains made in recent decades. Both now and over the long term, climate variability and change threaten development by restricting the fulfill- ment of human potential and disempowering people and communities, thereby constraining their ability to protect and enrich their livelihoods. This situation calls for action. As the World Development Report 2010 put it: we need to “act now, act together, and act differently” (World Bank 2010). Climate has shaped the cultures of Arab countries. The first settle- ments, farming communities, and cities in the world all began in this region, and all have changed in response to a variable climate. For thou- sands of years, people of the region have coped with the challenges of climate variability by adapting their survival strategies to changes in rain- fall and temperature. But the message in chapter 2 is clear: over the next century this variability will increase, and the climate of Arab countries will experience unprecedented extremes. Temperatures will reach re- cord highs in many places, and there will be less rainfall. As discussed in chapter 3, water availability will be reduced because of lower precipita- tion, increased temperatures, and a growing population. The already Photograph by Dorte Verner 9 10 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries water-scarce region may not have enough water to irrigate crops, sup- port industry, or provide drinking water. As climate variability increases, so does human vulnerability to it—especially for the poor and those heavily dependent on natural resources (such as the farmers and pasto- ralists who are the subject of chapter 4). People living in cities (chapter 5) and those working in tourism (chapter 6) must also cope with the degraded resources that sustain urban communities or tourist destina- tions. Gender dynamics and public health systems in Arab societies will also be challenged (chapters 7 and 8). But among these unprecedented challenges, there are new opportunities and approaches that the Arab people can take advantage of today. This report proposes applying an Adaptation Pyramid, which is based on the process of assessing the cli- mate, reacting to the perceived challenges, implementing cross-sectoral responses, and monitoring progress—all with strong leadership (see fig- ure 1.4, later in this chapter, and chapter 9). Many climate adaptation strategies that people have used throughout history have become less viable. In about 2200 BCE, a temporary climate shift created 300 years of reduced rainfall and colder temperatures, which forced people to abandon their rainfed fields in what is now the northeast Syrian Arab Republic. As people migrated to the south or turned to pas- toralism to survive, whole cities were deserted and covered in the dust of drought (Weiss and Bradley 2001). Today, despite technological gains, the ability of climate-affected people to migrate in the face of these chal- lenges is limited, partly because of borders that are difficult to cross and property rights that are difficult to leave behind or attain in new locations. As discussed in chapter 5, often the only choice left for people faced with depleted assets and less productive livelihoods in drought-stricken areas is to move to cities or towns, where their rural skills are hard to deploy. The Tuaregs in southern Algeria during the prolonged drought of the 1970s were such a case: a large number of families moved, for example, to the town of In Guezzam. A similar example happened more recently among the Bedouin in Syria (discussed later in this chapter). Climate change has already affected—or will soon affect—most of the 340 million people in the Arab region, but the roughly 100 million poor people are the least resilient to the negative impacts from these changes.2,3 Although they have contributed the least to the causes of climate change— some do not have the electricity to power a single light bulb—the poor have the fewest resources at their disposal to adapt to these changes.4 Climate change adaptations, including the development of innovative technology, diversification, and alternate livelihood and social protection schemes, can reduce the poor’s vulnerability to negative impacts of cli- mate change (see chapter 9). Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries 11 Climate Change Is Happening Now Arab countries are located in a hyperarid to arid region—less than 0.2 on the Aridity Index (AI)—with pockets of semiarid areas (between 0.2 and 0.5 AI). There are some temperate zones in coastal North Africa, the eastern Mediterranean, and equatorial areas in southern Somalia and the Comoros. There are snow-classified areas in the mountains of Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Morocco. Environmental challenges in the Arab world include water scarcity, with the lowest freshwater resource endow- ment in the world;5 very low and variable precipitation; and excessive exposure to extreme events, including drought and desertification. This demanding environment, combined with a high poverty rate, makes the Arab region among the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change. If no drastic measures are taken to reduce the impacts of climate change, the region will be exposed to reduced agricultural productivity and in- comes, a higher likelihood of drought and heat waves, a long-term reduc- tion in water supplies, and the loss of low-lying coastal areas through sea-level rise. This climate exposure will have considerable implications for human settlements and socioeconomic systems (IPCC 2007). Climate change is already being felt in Arab countries. Globally, 2010 tied 2005 as the warmest year since climate data began to be collected in the late 1800s. Of the 19 countries that set new national temperature highs in 2010, 5 were Arab countries. Temperatures in Kuwait reached 52.6°C only to be followed by 53.5°C in 2011.6 In addition to the warm- ing climate, the frequency of extreme weather events is increasing. For example, in June 2010, the Arabian Sea experienced the second-strongest tropical cyclone on record—Cyclone Phet—which peaked at category 4 strength with winds at 145 miles per hour, killing 44 people and causing US$700 million in damages to Oman.7 Also, 2010 was the second-worst year on record for coral reef dieback, which was caused by near-record highs in summer ocean water temperatures. A snapshot of the scientific and media reports on climate change in Arab countries shows its increas- ing profile (Allison et al. 2009; Chomiz 2011; Füssel 2009; Parry, Can- ziani, Palutikof, van der Linden, and Hanson 2007): • Higher temperatures and more frequent and intense heat waves threaten lives, crops, terrestrial biodiversity, and ecosystems such as coral reefs and fisheries. • Less but more intense rainfall causes both more droughts and more frequent flash flooding. • Loss of winter precipitation storage in snow masses induces summer droughts. 12 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries • Increased frequency of prolonged droughts leads to losses in liveli- hoods, incomes, and human well-being. • Sea-level rise threatens river deltas, coastal cities, wetlands, and small island nations such as Bahrain and the Comoros with storm surges, saltwater intrusion, flooding, and subsequent human impacts. • More intense cyclones put human life and property at risk. • Changing rainfall patterns and temperatures create new areas exposed to dengue, malaria, and other vector- and waterborne diseases affect- ing people’s health and productivity. • Inequality between males and females increases as females assume many of the new burdens associated with climate change. There is increasing evidence that climate change will have severe negative impacts on the economic and social development of Arab countries. As discussed in chapters 7 and 8, climate change threatens to stall and reverse progress toward poverty reduction, better health, gender equality, and social inclusion (see, for example, Kronik and Verner 2010; Mearns and Norton 2009; Verner 2010). Yet research on the socioeconomic dimen- sions of climate change in the Arab region is in only the early stages (Tolba and Saab 2009). This report aims to assess the impacts of climate variability and change and to fill knowledge gaps so that practitioners can better respond to Arab government requests for assistance in understand- ing and identifying successful adaptation policies and programs. Such strategies will assist these countries and their people in building resilience to climate change, particularly for the poor and vulnerable (see box 1.1 on definitions of climate change adaptation). This report also serves as a resource for researchers to begin to assess climate risks, opportunities, and actions. The information highlighted explains the potential impacts of climate change in key sectors such as water, agriculture, tourism, and health, as well as in urban and rural set- tings, and then goes on to discuss possible policy options to reduce cli- mate risk and better adapt to climate variability and change. The chapters are mostly led by Arab region specialists. In the preparation of each chap- ter, an effort was made to draw upon the regional literature—whether in Arabic, French, or English. This report is organized into nine chapters. Each chapter reviews the literature and core issues and presents relevant policy options.8 This chapter sets the stage for the report by discussing some of the impacts and challenges of climate change. It also previews a framework for building the capacity to adapt to climate change and guide national- and local-level project planning, hence facilitating adaptation governance. Chapter 2 ex- Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries 13 BOX 1.1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Definitions: Climate, Climate Change, and Climate Variability Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization. These quantities are most often surface variables such as tempera- ture, precipitation, and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system. Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persist- ing for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forc- ings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations and the occurrence of extremes) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond those of individual weather events. Variability may be due to natu- ral internal processes within the climate system (internal variabil- ity), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcings (external variability). Source: IPCC 2001, Glossary. amines the projected climate variability and changes that will likely occur in the region. It provides a checklist for policy makers and project manag- ers on how to take climate change into account when preparing any new project, regulation, or policy. The following six chapters address key ar- eas that are affected by climate variability and change. Chapter 3 discusses water stress and options to overcome water-related challenges; chapter 4 examines the rural sector, particularly as it relates to livelihoods, agricul- ture, and food security; chapter 5 looks at urban areas; chapter 6 discusses tourism; chapter 7 examines gender; and chapter 8 discusses public health. Finally, in chapter 9 this report attempts to move the discussion on adaptation governance one step further by providing guidance to policy makers in Arab countries. It does this in three ways. First, the chapter 14 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries provides a Framework for Action on Climate Change Adaptation, repre- sented by an Adaptation Pyramid, which illustrates the key elements of adaptation decision making. Second, it puts forward a typology of policy approaches that are relevant to such decision making in the Arab region. Third, it provides a policy matrix that outlines the key policy options covered in each of the areas of this report. The Effects of Climate Change Are Socially Differentiated Climate change affects all people and countries in the Arab region (box 1.2). Still, the effects of climate change are regionally and socially un- equal, within and among countries, and across the Arab region as a whole. While wealthier people continue to enjoy the benefits of high-carbon- emitting lifestyles that include air-conditioned houses and cars, millions of the poor are disproportionately threatened by climate change, com- pared with their negligible contribution to its causes. Asset-poor com- munities, such as the Bedouin9 from the arid areas of the Arabian Penin- sula and North Africa, have few resources but have some capacity to adapt to the changing climate. Many manage to take action by diversifying their livelihood, moving, pursuing education, and so forth. Climate change is superimposed over the preexisting risks and vulnerabilities that poor and marginalized groups typically face. Many studies have suggested that the poor are the most vulnerable to climate change because of the following conditions: • Dependence on natural resources, which are exposed to the climate • Lack of assets, which hinders effective adaptation • Settlement in at-risk areas, which are less productive and are also vul- nerable to floods or droughts or other severe events • Migrant status, which can prevent the poor from accessing certain so- cial services • Low levels of education, which prevents them from developing more climate-resilient skills or livelihood strategies • Minority status, which deters policy makers from making them the focus of adaptation policies The Arab people increasingly do not know what to expect regarding the climate and, hence, what decisions to make. This lack of information is most visible among climate-dependent activities such as rainfed agricul- ture, given changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall. A key asset of farmers is their traditional knowledge of the environment, but this Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries 15 BOX 1.2 Water-Related Impacts: Selected Examples from the Arab Region Alexandria, Arab Republic of Egypt. A half-meter increase in sea levels is predicted to flood 30 percent of the city, leading to the displacement of 1.5 million people or more, the loss of 195,000 workplaces, and estimated damages to land and property reaching US$30 trillion. Sudan. Droughts, flooding, and desertification lead to increased competition over environmental resources and contribute to human conflicts such as those in Darfur, one of the greatest humanitarian crises of this century. Jordan Basin, West Bank–Jordan. The year 2008 marked the fifth consecutive year of drought for the Jordan River basin. As a result, many in the West Bank do not have access to water for most of the day. Desert of Sinai Peninsula, Egypt. Rainfall in this region has decreased 20 to 50 percent over the past 30 years. Droughts and flash floods threaten the lives of the local Bedouin. Nile Basin, Egypt-Ethiopia-Sudan. In 2006, flooding of the Nile River caused the deaths of 600 people, left 35,000 others without homes, and interrupted the lives of another 118,000 individuals. Some 3,000 houses were destroyed in Sudan from these floods. Photograph by Dorte Verner Source: Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona 2010. 16 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries knowledge may no longer be reliable without the support of forecasting technology and additional climate information. The impacts of climate change vary across the Arab region, and each country must respond with customized approaches and policies. These approaches depend in part on the perceived impacts of climate change and in part on a country’s eco- nomic capacity to respond to those impacts. This report addresses the Arab region as a whole, while acknowledging that the region and countries are heterogeneous and that adaptive policies must be flexible. Four subgroups of countries have been identified: (a) the least developed countries (LDCs; the Comoros, Djibouti, Mauritania, So- malia, Sudan, and the Republic of Yemen); (b) the Maghreb (Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia); (c) the Mashreq (the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and West Bank and Gaza); and (d) the Gulf region (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates). Some of the topics that are addressed in this report are uniform across the Arab world—such as the need for better climate information to improve policy making and meet development objectives— whereas others are more local. Moreover, this report provides strategic guidance on adaptation with a short time horizon—until about 2030— while taking into account longer-term climate change projections. Many poor people are already being forced to cope with the impacts of climate change. In the Mashreq, in northeast Syria, the current multi- year drought has forced hundreds of thousands of people to move to the outskirts of major cities, leaving their livelihoods and social networks be- hind (see box 1.3). In countries such as the Republic of Yemen, one of the LDCs, women and children travel farther and farther distances to fetch dwindling water supplies. This additional labor often forces girls in rural areas to drop out of school, which deprives them of lifelong skills. Oman, located in the Gulf region, is experiencing significant movements of sa- line water into freshwater aquifers, which reduces people’s access to drinking water and other resources. Small farmers in all Arab countries, particularly in the Maghreb, are experiencing reduced crop yields and lost outputs as a result of climate variability and change. Climate change is a threat to short-, medium-, and long-term develop- ment. It restricts human potential and freedom and reduces the ability of people to make informed choices regarding their well-being and liveli- hoods (Mearns and Norton 2009; Verner 2010). As the Stern Review ar- gues, the paramount aims are for climate change issues to become fully integrated into development policies and for international support of those policies to increase (Stern 2007). Social, economic, and human de- velopment are key to efforts to reduce potential conflicts, migration and displacement (see box 1.3), losses to livelihood systems, and damage to or declines in infrastructure. All of these issues will help enable people and communities to cope with climate change. Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries 17 BOX 1.3 Effects of Severe Droughts on Rural Livelihoods in Syria The recent prolonged drought in northeast Syria is having devas- tating effects on farmers and herders. Within these governorates, the livelihoods of more than 1 million people have been affected. Hundreds of thousands have been forced to leave their traditional ways of life and migrate to urban areas to find work. In the Badia steppe rangeland of Syria, droughts have been especially damaging for small-scale herders. Interviews with com- munities in this region suggest that households with 200 sheep or fewer have been forced to give up herding and move to large towns and cities. Lower rainfall and the drying-out of riverbeds have caused farmers and herders to rely increasingly on groundwater for irrigation and livestock production. However, in some farm- ing communities near Deir Ezzor, dried-up wells have led to the emigration of 8 out of every 10 families. Rainfall in Syria is predicted to decline by more than 20 percent over the next 50–70 years. Already, groundwater levels are falling rapidly—by more than one meter per year in some regions—and lower rainfall levels will further accelerate this process through slower recharge rates. Given that about three-fourths of all farm- land in Syria is rainfed, substantial decreases in yields can be expected as a direct consequence of lower precipitation rates. Households with diversified sources of income such as remit- tances and off-farm activities are more resilient. Still, the impacts are present in all households and communities because of the con- tinuous depletion of assets, reduced nutritional levels, lower school attendance rates, and reduced mobility. Photograph by Dorte Verner Source: World Bank 2011a. 18 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE 1.1 Socioeconomic Information for Arab Countries Urban Agricultural Forestland Population Urban population Land area land (% of (% of land growth population growth (sq. km) land area) area) Population (annual %) (% of total) (annual %) Maghreb Algeria 2,381,740 17.4 0.6 35,468,208 1.5 66.5 2.4 Libya 1,759,540 8.8 0.1 6,355,112 1.5 77.9 1.7 Morocco 446,300 67.3 11.5 31,951,412 1.0 56.7 1.6 Tunisia 155,360 63.0 6.5 10,549,100 1.0 67.3 1.6 Mashreq Egypt, Arab Rep. 995,450 3.7 0.1 81,121,077 1.8 42.8 1.8 Iraq 434,320 20.1 1.9 32,030,823 3.0 66.4 2.8 Jordan 88,780 11.5 1.1 6,047,000 2.2 78.5 2.3 Lebanon 10,230 67.3 13.4 4,227,597 0.7 87.2 0.9 Syrian Arab Republic 183,630 75.7 2.7 20,446,609 2.0 54.9 2.6 LDCs Comoros 1,860 83.3 1.6 734,750 2.6 28.2 2.8 Djibouti 23,180 73.4 0.3 888,716 1.9 88.1 2.3 Mauritania 1,030,700 38.5 0.2 3,459,773 2.4 41.4 2.9 Somalia 627,340 70.2 10.8 9,330,872 2.3 37.4 3.5 Sudan 2,376,000 57.5 29.4 43,551,941 2.5 45.2 4.5 Yemen, Rep. 527,970 44.4 1.0 24,052,514 3.1 31.8 4.9 Gulf Bahrain 760 9.2 1.3 1,261,835 7.6 88.6 7.6 Kuwait 17,820 8.5 0.3 2,736,732 3.4 98.4 3.4 Oman 309,500 5.9 0.0 2,782,435 2.6 71.7 2.6 Qatar 11,590 5.6 0.0 1,758,793 9.6 95.8 9.7 Saudi Arabia 2,149,690 80.7 0.5 27,448,086 2.4 83.6 4.0 United Arab Emirates 83,600 6.8 3.8 7,511,690 7.9 78.0 8.0 Sources: Authors, based on UNDP 2011; World Bank 2011b. Note: HDI = Human Development Index; PPP = purchasing power parity; — = not available. Data are those most recently available; most apply to 2010 or a few years prior. Climate Change Affects People and the Economy Climate change puts additional stress on the economies and people of Arab countries. Climate variability and change can lead to, and add to, disruptions in social, infrastructural, environmental, or productive sys- tems and resources, which in turn can slow economic growth and increase poverty. Countries that rely heavily on climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture and fisheries, or that have low income levels; high poverty rates; lower levels of human capital; or less institutional, economic, tech- nical, or financial capacity will be the most vulnerable. The Arab region varies greatly in climate, culture, education, literacy, and access to resources, and thus in vulnerability. The region includes six Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries 19 Urban Population in GDP per Poverty ratio at Employed in population areas with capita, PPP US$1.25/day agriculture Agriculture, > 1 million elevation < 5 m (constant 2005 (PPP) Labor force, (% total value added (% of total) (% of pop.) international $) HDI value 2011 (% of pop.) total employment) (% of GDP) 7.9 3.5 7,521 0.698 6.8 14,844,724 20.7 11.7 17.4 4.7 15,361 0.760 — 2,304,613 19.7 1.9 19.3 3.8 4,227 0.582 2.5 11,845,622 40.9 15.4 0.0 9.5 8,566 0.698 2.6 3,821,103 25.8 8.0 19.0 25.6 5,544 0.644 2.0 26,536,263 31.6 14.0 22.9 6.5 3,195 0.573 4.0 7,275,555 23.4 8.6 18.3 4.2 5,157 0.698 0.4 1,817,540 3.0 2.9 45.8 9.1 12,619 0.739 — 1,444,266 — 6.4 34.3 0.3 4,741 0.632 1.7 6,311,814 19.1 22.9 0.0 14.0 984 0.433 46.1 327,568 — 46.3 0.0 7.6 2,087 0.430 18.8 389,680 — 3.9 0.0 20.4 1,744 0.453 21.2 1,415,617 — 20.2 16.1 2.2 — — — 3,531,417 — 65.5 11.9 0.2 2,023 0.408 — 13,246,649 — 23.6 9.7 1.8 2,267 0.462 — 6,053,143 54.1 14.3 0.0 66.6 23,755 0.806 — 591,876 1.5 0.9 84.2 22.8 49,542 0.760 — 1,334,479 2.7 0.5 0.0 5.5 24,226 0.705 — 1,092,450 6.4 1.9 0.0 23.1 73,196 0.831 — 1,158,535 2.3 — 38.9 1.0 20,374 0.770 — 10,109,647 4.8 2.6 20.9 7.3 42,353 0.846 — 4,455,171 4.2 1.0 LDCs with annual gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as low as US$1,000 (lower in the case of Somalia).10 Those countries, with the exception of Djibouti, contain large rural populations that account for over 50 percent of the total population and that maintain agricultural sec- tors worth 20 percent or more of total GDP. By comparison, the annual GDP of largely urban countries such as Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates is more than US$50,000 per capita (see table 1.1). Literacy rates of adult women are below 50 percent in Morocco and the Republic of Yemen; in Lebanon and Libya over 50 percent of young women are enrolled in tertiary education, more than for men of similar ages. The populations in Arab countries are growing; in some places they are increasing at unprecedented rates. Qatar and the Republic of Yemen have an annual population growth rate of 9.6 and 3.1 percent, respectively (see table 1.1). The total population of the Arab world is likely to hit 20 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries 700 million people by 2050, which is roughly twice the size of today’s population. This growth will increase the demand for scarce resources, including water and land. Climate change and the increased demand for food will affect food prices and will therefore affect Arab countries, be- cause the region is heavily reliant on food imports (see chapter 4). Climate stress, combined with better social and infrastructural services in cities, has already led to the rapid urbanization of many Arab countries. As a result, millions of people have left their rural homes to settle in urban centers. The most recent data show a large variation among countries in terms of the urban-rural divide. Some countries are almost completely urbanized (98 percent of Kuwaitis live in urban areas); others are still largely rural (Comoros, Egypt, Mauritania, Somalia, and the Republic of Yemen have 28, 43, 41, 37, and 32 percent of their respective populations residing in urban areas; see table 1.1). Thus, climate change adaptation must occur in both rural and urban areas. Although different adaptation options will be deployed in these different environments, in both settings, local women and men, especially the poor, must play an integral role in building the resilience of their livelihoods and well-being. All people of the Arab region are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability on water availability, food security, and their health. Cities have their own vulnerabilities, which are made worse by rapid growth that is partly driven by migration of the rural poor. Tourism is an increasingly important contributor to many economies of the re- gion, but it too could be threatened if climate change is ignored. Women are both a most vulnerable group and the main agents for the social changes necessary for economies to cope with a changing climate. These topics are addressed in the following chapters of this report. Climate Change Is Likely to Reduce Household Well-Being in the Short and Long Term Projections show that the economies of Arab countries will be increas- ingly affected by climate change as time passes. These challenges are il- lustrated by background case studies prepared for this report on income, livelihoods, well-being, and poverty in Syria, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen. Findings from these three diverse countries are based on quali- tative analyses (World Bank 2011a) and quantitative modeling (the com- putable general equilibrium, or CGE model). Although experts agree on climatic trends (see chapter 2), it is less clear what the socioeconomic impacts of climate change will be. The ability to assess these impacts is challenged by the generally complex relationship between meteorological, biophysical, and economic interactions; the ex- pected diversity of local impacts within countries; and the relatively long Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries 21 time horizon of the analysis. The findings of a modeling suite, presented below, address these analytical challenges by linking the downscaling of selected global circulation models (GCMs), crop modeling, global eco- nomic modeling, and subnational-level CGE modeling with microsimu- lation modeling. This approach estimates the potential economic impacts of climate variability and change at both global and local levels. Arab countries will be affected by climate change at the national and local levels and will also suffer from the effects experienced by other countries. At the local level, an increase in temperatures, and in some cases a reduction in precipitation, is projected to reduce agricultural yields: wheat yields, for example, may decrease by about 60 percent by 2050 in some parts of the Arab world. In addition, because climate change will likely reduce agricultural yields globally, world market prices for ma- jor food commodities are projected to rise. Given the high dependence of Arab countries on imported food (combined with relatively limited agri- cultural potential), these global dimensions are particularly important for the Arab world. The long-term local and global implications of climate change in Syria, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen are projected to lead to a large total reduction in household incomes (figure 1.1). Income reductions ac- cumulate over time. By 2020, household incomes in Syria are projected FIGURE 1.1 Cumulative Impacts of Climate Change on Household Income for Syria, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen a. Syrian Arab Republic b. Tunisia c. Republic of Yemen 1,000 1,000 1,000 0 0 0 –1,000 –1,000 –1,000 US$ (millions) US$ (millions) US$ (millions) –2,000 –2,000 –2,000 –3,000 –3,000 –3,000 –4,000 –4,000 –4,000 –5,000 –5,000 –5,000 –6,000 –6,000 –6,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Year Year Rural Rural farm Rural nonfarm Urban Total Source: Authors’ calculations based on a modeling suite, including downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and subnational-level economic modeling. Note: Graphs represent results from the global climate model MIROC A1B scenario. Exchange rates are US$1 = 203 Yemeni rial, 48 Syrian pounds, and 1.44 Tunisian dinars. Results for Syria and the Republic of Yemen cover 40 years and Tunisia 30 years. 22 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries to be US$527 million (1.1 percent of GDP) lower than in a perfect miti- gation scenario. By 2030, these losses are projected to increase by US$1.2 billion (2.5 percent of GDP), and by 2050 losses will reach US$3.4 billion (6.7 percent of GDP). Climate change also has a negative impact on well-being in the Repub- lic of Yemen. By 2020, household incomes are projected to be US$314 mil- lion lower (1.3 percent of GDP) compared with a perfect mitigation sce- nario; by 2030 these losses will reach US$1.3 billion (5.6 percent of GDP), and by 2050 losses will reach US$5.7 billion (23.9 percent of GDP). Tu- nisian households will also increasingly suffer from climate change. Initial income losses are estimated at US$100 million (0.4 percent of GDP) over a 10-year period and then accumulate to US$393 million and US$1.8 bil- lion (1.4 and 6.7 percent of GDP after 20 and 30 years, respectively). These are rather optimistic estimates, considering that the chosen model (MIROC A1B, the model for interdisciplinary research on climate) is among the GCMs with medium-level impact and that the country-level CGE models for Syria, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen assume a large degree of endogenous adaptation. For example, MIROC A1B takes into account that people can freely adapt to a changing climate by switch- ing crop patterns or moving out of agriculture and into other sectors of the economy that have greater development potential. There are indications that the number of droughts has increased in some regions and will become more frequent in the future (see spotlight 1 on disaster risk management, following chapter 2).11 Lower rainfall leads to a reduction in crop yields or, in extreme cases, to the complete loss of harvests, especially in rainfed agricultural systems. Droughts also affect livestock, particularly animals that rely on pastures for feeding. It is expected that normally occurring dry periods will last longer, which ex- acerbates these impacts. In addition to these direct impacts on the agri- cultural sector and the families that rely on it, droughts also directly affect other sectors of the economy and, indirectly, nonfarm households. In Syria, for example, droughts have occurred almost every other year dur- ing the past half-century. The average drought reduces growth in eco- nomic output by about 1 percentage point of GDP nationally compared to nondrought years. Food security in Syria is significantly reduced dur- ing droughts, and the poor are particularly hard-hit, mainly through the loss of capital, lower incomes, and higher food and feed prices. Nation- wide, poverty levels increase by about 0.3 to 1.4 percentage points—de- pending on the year and household group—and stay above nondrought levels even when the drought is over. Poor farm households are the most affected, followed by rural nonfarm and urban households. Floods may also become more frequent as a result of climate variability and, as a result, induce heavy economic losses and spikes in food insecu- Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries 23 rity. The Republic of Yemen is a natural disaster–prone country that faces a number of hazards every year, with floods being the most common and serious of these events. Although regular flooding can be beneficial to agricultural practices in dry lands like those in the Republic of Yemen, high-magnitude flooding leads to the loss of productive land, the uproot- ing of fruit trees, the deaths of animals caught in floodwaters, and the destruction of infrastructure, such as irrigation facilities and rural roads. Impact assessments of the October 2008 tropical storm and floods in Wadi Hadramout in the Republic of Yemen showed that agriculture was the sector hardest hit by floods. Industry and service sectors tend to be relatively more resilient. Estimates put the total cumulative loss in real income over the period 2008–12 at 180 percent of preflood regional ag- ricultural value added. As a result of direct losses from flooding, farmers’ incomes in these areas suffer most during the year of the flood. For ex- ample, the number of hungry people rose dramatically by about 15 per- centage points as an immediate result of the 2008 floods. Spillover effects have led to increases in hunger even in regions where the flooding had no direct impact. Poor Rural Communities Are among the Most Vulnerable to Climate Change Rural populations that depend heavily on agriculture are especially vul- nerable to climate change (see Diaz 2008; Gerritsen 2008; Smith 2008; Sulyandziga 2008; Tauli-Corpuz and Lynge 2008). Qualitative data anal- yses on vulnerable communities, such as the Bedouin in northeast Syria and farmers in Tunisia, show that these groups are largely dependent on natural resources for their well-being and livelihoods.12 Historically, the ability of Bedouin communities to adapt to climate impacts has been limited. The Bedouin define themselves as pastoralists, but this livelihood strategy has been severely affected by climate change. In Syria’s current multiyear drought, livestock herds have been reduced by 80–100 percent, which has led individuals and households to adopt new coping measures. These adaptation mechanisms include temporary and permanent migration and agricultural wage labor. Most of the thou- sands of Bedouin people who migrate settle informally on the outskirts of urban areas. These changes mark a departure from the traditional Bed- ouin way of life. The Bedouin have experienced declines in their social and cultural as- sets as well as their social and cultural cohesion, which are all important characteristics of their adaptive capacity. The Bedouin’s dependence on natural resources and cultural assets makes these communities especially vulnerable to climate variability. To maintain their livelihood strategies, 24 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 1.2 The Bedouin’s Assets to Cope with Drought, 1990 and 2010 Perceived drought intensity 3 2.5 2 Social assets Physical assets 1.5 1 0.5 0 Cultural assets Financial assets Environmental assets Environmental assets (grazing) (water) 1990 2010 Source: World Bank 2011a. Note: Data are from interviews conducted with 15 communities of the Bedouin in the Badia region, in Northeast Syria, December 2010. they depend heavily on cultural, human, and social assets, including tra- ditional knowledge systems and institutions that are now under increased stress. In interviews, the Bedouin said that their access to key livelihood assets is worse now than it was two decades ago (see figure 1.2). The Bedouin perceive that the drought intensity in 2010 was higher than it was in 1990. The impact of the consecutive dry years starting in 2007 is clearly represented by decreased access to financial assets, such as loans and cash; environmental assets, such as available grazing areas; so- cial assets, including trust and social networks; and cultural assets, such as the cultural leadership, capable institutions, and a strong sense of identity. Physical assets, such as infrastructure and means of transportation (in- cluding transportation of water) were not perceived to have worsened in 2010 compared to 1990. These findings show that the types of assets that the Bedouin possess are highly sensitive to climate change impacts, par- ticularly drought. Therefore, adaptation initiatives that protect these as- sets would increase climate resilience. Analytical work done for this report suggests that the poor people in Syria, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen suffer more than the nonpoor from climate change, and that rural households (farm and nonfarm) have been the group hardest hit by these adverse effects. In Syria, the lowest Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries 25 two income quintiles are projected to lose an accumulated US$1.2 billion (59 percent of 2010 GDP) as a consequence of climate change by 2050. Rural nonfarm households, the poorest group, are projected to lose US$3.5 billion in the Republic of Yemen (15 percent of 2010 GDP). In Tunisia, farmers are the group hardest hit by climate change, with losses of US$700 million (3 percent of 2010 GDP). This high level of vulnera- bility of the poor can be explained by the joint effect of (a) being net food buyers—those who spend a high percentage of their income on food— and (b) earning incomes from climate-sensitive productive strategies, namely unskilled farm labor. Although in general the poor suffer most, the three case studies show interesting differences between countries, de- pending on levels of household income and consumption structures. The most climate-affected household group in the Republic of Yemen is rural nonfarm households, whereas the hardest-hit household group in Tunisia is the farmers. However, urban households are also negatively affected by climate change in all three countries, and in Syria they are almost as hard- hit as rural households. Climate Change Adaptation Is about Reducing Vulnerability Definitions and Framework Adaptation is about reducing vulnerability of countries, societies, and households to the effects of climate variability and change. Vulnerability depends not only on the magnitude of climatic stress, but also on the sensitivity and capacity of affected societies and households to cope with such stress (OECD 2009; also see box 1.4). One conceptual framework for defining vulnerability and adaptation comes from Fay, Block, and Ebinger (2010). That framework is based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (2007) definition of vulnerability and seeks to capture the essence of the different concepts in the literature by defining vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitiv- ity, and adaptive or coping capacity (see figure 1.3).13 As described in Fay, Block, and Ebinger (2010, 15), “the advantage of this approach is that it helps distinguish between what is exogenous, what is the result of past decisions, and what is amenable to policy action.” This approach can be applied to communities, regions, countries, or sectors—for example, the Australian government applied this framework to agriculture. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or un- able to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, mag- nitude, and rate of climate change, and the degree to which a system is 26 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 1.4 Definitions of Climate Change Adaptation The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defines adapta- tion as any “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moder- ates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.” The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Develop- ment’s Development Assistance Committee (OECD-DAC) defines climate change adaptation projects as those that “reduce the vul- nerability of human or natural systems to the impacts of climate change and climate-related risks, by maintaining or increasing adaptive capacity and resilience. This encompasses a range of activities from information and knowledge generation, to capac- ity development, planning and implementation of climate change adaptation actions.” Adaptation reduces the impacts of climate stress on human and natural systems and consists of a multitude of behavioral, structural, and technological adjustments. OECD highlights that timing (anticipatory versus reactive, ex ante ver- sus ex post); scope (short-term versus long-term, localized versus regional); purposefulness (autonomous versus planned, passive ver- sus active); and agent of adaptation (private versus public, societies versus natural systems) are important concepts when addressing adaptation. Photograph by Dorte Verner Sources: Authors’ compilation based on OECD 2009 and IPCC 2001. Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries 27 FIGURE 1.3 Conceptual Framework for Defining Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity Potential Adaptive impact capacity VULNERABILITY Source: IPCC 2001 (as presented in Fay, Block, and Ebinger 2010). exposed, along with its sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Vulnerability increases as the magnitude of climate change exposure or sensitivity in- creases, and decreases as adaptive capacity increases (IPCC 2007). The potential impact of climate variability and change on a commu- nity or sector depends on exposure and sensitivity (see figure 1.3). Expo- sure is determined by the type, magnitude, variability, and speed of the climate event, such as the changing onset of rains, minimum and maxi- mum winter and summer temperatures, heat waves, floods, and storms. These are the exogenous factors. Sensitivity is the degree to which a system can be affected by changes in the climate, and depends in part on how stressed the system already is. Poor people and communities will be more affected than the nonpoor, which may already face stresses before a climate event. With limited as- sets, the poor are inherently more sensitive to even minor climate events. These are the endogenous factors. Vulnerability depends on the severity of the potential impact and the adaptive capacity of an affected community.14 The capacity of a system or community to adapt is determined by access to information, technology, economic resources, and other assets. A system’s adaptation capacity de- pends, moreover, on the community’s having the skills to use this infor- mation, the institutions to manage these assets, and the equitable distri- bution of resources. In general, societies with relatively more equitable resource distribution will be better able to adapt than societies with less equitable distribution. This difference is because adaptive capacity avoids resource capture, corruption, and clientelism. The level of adaptive ca- pacity tends to be positively correlated with levels of development: more developed societies tend to have more adaptive capacity (OECD 2009). 28 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Climate Change Awareness Varies within and among Countries Governments and policy makers in Arab countries are aware that climate change is happening, and some countries have taken action to address the issue. For example, many countries have prepared a National Adaptation Programme of Action and included climate change issues in their Coun- try Partnership Strategy (see chapter 9). In 2009, a pan-Arab survey on climate change awareness was carried out through the region’s media outlets and online. Responses from highly educated populations showed that 98 percent believe that the climate is changing and 89 percent believe that it is the result of human activity (Tolba and Saab 2009). Moreover, 84 percent reported that climate change poses a serious challenge to their country. The findings also revealed that people obtain most of their in- formation from international media. Of the respondents, 51 percent an- swered that they disagree with the statement: “My government is acting well to address climate change.” The responses varied by subregion: 59 percent disagreed in the Mashreq, 49 percent in Arab Africa, 44 percent in the Gulf, and 38 percent in the Republic of Yemen. However, because these surveys were conducted only in media sources that tend to be ac- cessed by the most educated segments of the population, the results do not reflect the views of the less educated and impoverished. Climate Change Adaptation Should Be an Integrated Part of Public Sector Management for Sustainable Development Many countries, particularly the poorest and most exposed, will need as- sistance in adapting to the changing climate. They urgently need help in preparing for drought, managing water resources, addressing the impacts from rising sea levels, improving agricultural productivity, containing disease, and building climate-resilient infrastructure. How to adapt to climate change is mostly a sovereign decision of indi- vidual countries, which includes governments, the private sector, and civil society. It is in each country’s own best interest to build climate resilience and be as prepared as possible for the known and unknown consequences of climate change. This section provides a simple sketch of a framework for an integrated government adaptation process. This resiliency- building approach, which is based on findings from chapters 2 through 8 and takes into account regional characteristics, is developed in greater detail in chapter 9. The prospect of climate change adds another element to be integrated into national planning. Governments, with assistance from the private sector and civil society, can ensure that a country’s development poli- Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries 29 cies, strategies, and action plans build resilience to a changing climate. As this report shows, an integrated approach to climate change adaptation at the country level calls for leadership, action, and collaboration and re- quires sound strategies for identification, integration, and implementa- tion. Moreover, strategies need to be supported by legislation and action plans, including the necessary frameworks and a strong domestic policy. If they are not, these strategies can result in incoherent outcomes and maladaptation. This report aims to provide guidance to policy makers on how to ad- dress climate change adaptation. The Framework for Action on Climate Change Adaptation introduced in this chapter highlights that adaptation is a long-term, dynamic, and iterative process that will take place over decades. Governments will need to make decisions despite uncertainty about how both society and climate will change and revise their adapta- tion strategies and activities as new information becomes available. Many standard decision-making methodologies are inappropriate, and alterna- tive, evidence-based methods for selecting priorities within an adaptive management framework will be more effective. The elements in an adaptive management model include (a) manage- ment objectives that are regularly revisited and revised accordingly, (b) a model or models of the system being managed, (c) a range of management choices, (d) the monitoring and evaluation of outcomes, (e) a mechanism for incorporating learning into future decisions, and (f) a collaborative struc- ture for stakeholder participation and learning. This model is commonly used in many fields, but is particularly used in environmental policy. In addition, and complementary to an adaptive management approach, the OECD (2009) has highlighted five enabling conditions that sup- port successful integration of climate change adaptation into develop- ment processes. These conditions help to ensure that multiple perspec- tives are brought into the policy decision process, thereby ensuring that the policy solutions that are tried are based on evidence and are in line with an inclusive management approach. These enabling conditions are as follows: • A broad and sustained engagement with, and participation of, stake- holders, such as government bodies and institutions, communities, civil society, and the private sector • A participatory approach with legitimate decision-making agents • An awareness-raising program on climate change, designed for house- holds, civil society organizations, opinion leaders, and educators • Information gathering to inform both national and local adaptation decisions 30 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries • Response processes to short- and long-term climatic shocks The Adaptation Pyramid (figure 1.4) provides a framework to assist stake- holders in Arab countries in integrating climate risks and opportunities into development activities. It is based on an adaptive management ap- proach but also highlights the importance of leadership, without which adaptation efforts are unlikely to achieve the actions necessary to mini- mize the impacts of climate change. The base of the pyramid represents the four iterative steps that form the foundation for sound decision making related to climate change adaptation: 1. Assess climate risks, impacts, and opportunities for action. 2. Prioritize policy and project options. 3. Implement responses in sectors and regions. 4. Monitor and evaluate implementation, then reassess the climate risks, impacts, and opportunities. The arrows on the four sides of the pyramid highlight the iterative nature of adaptation decision making. Adaptation is a continuous process that takes place over time, and adaptation activities will be subject to revision as new information becomes available. To this process is added the apex of leadership. The base of the pyramid is elaborated in the next sections. FIGURE 1.4 The Adaptation Pyramid: A Framework for Action on Climate Change Adaptation Leadership and political commitment Monitor outcomes ᮡ ᮡ (Re-)Assess climate risks and opportunities Implement responses in sectors and regions ᮡ ᮡ Prioritize options Source: Authors’ representation. Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries 31 Step 1: Assess Climate Risks, Impacts, and Opportunities In this first step, a wide range of quantitative and qualitative analyses could be used.15 All of these tools rely on access to climate and socioeconomic data for information on climate impacts, including on vulnerable groups, regions, and sectors. Understanding the risks and impacts requires that practitioners have data on current climate variability and change as well as projections and uncertainty about the future climate. Similarly, informa- tion on past adaptive actions and on coping strategies needs to be gathered and evaluated in light of the changing climate. Chapter 9 goes into more detail about this adaptive process. Approaches to this step should be ad- justed to suit the issues, locality, and circumstances. Step 2: Prioritize Options The second step is to identify and prioritize adaptation options within the context of national, regional, and local priorities and goals and, in particu- lar, the financial and capacity constraints. Expectations of climate change make the consideration of longer-term consequences of decisions more important, as short-term responses may miss more efficient adaptation options or even lead to maladaptive outcomes, such as the further devel- opment of highly vulnerable locations. An effective approach is robust decision making (see chapter 9), which allows practitioners to identify choices that provide acceptable outcomes under many feasible scenarios of the future. Step 3: Implement Responses in Sectors and Regions Adaptive responses will often be somewhat at odds with immediate, local priorities, and thus the third step of implementing the agreed-on re- sponses requires cooperation and understanding at national, sectoral, and regional and local levels (often jointly). At the national level, adaptation needs to be integrated into national policies, plans, and programs and into financial management systems, including the five-year plans prepared in a number of Arab countries. Moreover, it includes sustainable develop- ment and poverty reduction strategies and plans; policies, regulations, and legislation; investment programs; and the budget. In addition, na- tional adaptation strategies can guide the mainstreaming of adaptation into other national policies as well as implementation at sectoral and local levels. This integration could involve the formation of an interministerial committee at various levels with participation of the private sector, aca- demia, and civil society. Climate change needs to be considered in all sectoral activities, par- ticularly in climate-sensitive sectors such as water, agriculture, tourism, and health (see chapters 3, 4, 6, and 8). Sectoral plans and strategies must 32 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries take intersectoral effects into account. For example, water is one of the key sectors for successful adaptation in Arab countries, but any policies concerning water management will affect agriculture and energy (irriga- tion), city planning (drinking water and wastewater), gender (time spent by women and girls collecting water), and health (waterborne diseases). The local level is ultimately the level at which climate change impacts will be felt and responded to. This report presents key issues and possible policy solutions at two levels: rural and urban (see chapters 4 and 5). Rural livelihoods tend to be anchored in climate-sensitive sectors such as agri- culture, whereas urban livelihoods tend toward service sectors. Changes in agricultural productivity attributable to climate change, together with population growth, may increase food prices for those who do not pro- duce food and may even disrupt food supplies. Changes in agricultural productivity may also accelerate the rural to urban migration, often initi- ated by men, from rural areas. This out-migration creates challenges for rural women left behind and puts pressure on services in rapidly expand- ing urban areas. Step 4: Monitor Outcomes Monitoring is essential to ensure that adaptation-related strategies and activities have the intended adaptation outcomes and benefits. Compre- hensive qualitative and quantitative indicators can help proponents of adaptation projects recognize the strengths and weaknesses of various initiatives and adjust activities to best meet current and future needs. The monitoring framework should explicitly consider the effects of future cli- mate change, particularly for projects with a long time horizon. Monitor and Evaluate While Reassessing the Climate Risks, Impacts, and Opportunities The Adaptation Pyramid is an iterative process; hence, the next step will be to reassess activities, taking into account new and available informa- tion, such as revised projections about future climate change or the ef- fectiveness of previously applied solutions. Make Leadership Central to Successful Adaptation Effective climate change adaptation will not occur without strong leader- ship. International experience shows that leadership needs to be initiated at the national level by a prominent ministry or senior government cham- pion, such as the prime minister, minister of planning or economy, or state planning commission. This champion will also require the support of a strong team composed of representatives of relevant ministries, gov- ernorates, local authorities and institutions, the private sector, academia, Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries 33 and civil society organizations, and ideally will involve members from opposition parties to ensure continuity through a changing government. Clearly, this leadership team would reflect the context of individual Arab countries and circumstances (see box 1.5). Leaders are also needed at other levels of government, from all sectors, and within civil society and private sector organizations. Those leaders need support through information access and educational opportunities, and they must be treated as legitimate agents in decision-making pro- cesses. For example, in 2009, the Republic of Yemen created an intermin- isterial panel for climate change adaptation chaired by the deputy prime minister, with ministers from 13 key ministries and other relevant actors. Moreover, the leadership must interact with other states with regard to intergovernmental issues (for example, riparian states sharing the water flow of the Euphrates, Khabur, or Nile Rivers). Thus, regional and inter- national organizations, such as the United Nations Framework Conven- tion on Climate Change (UNFCCC), will also play an important role.16 This book is about climate change, its impacts on people and on the systems on which they depend, and ways people might adapt to climate change. The book highlights a number of issues and areas that are being affected by climate change. One important message of the book is that climate change should be taken into account in all activities, but the book cannot provide solutions or options for all issues. For example, trans- boundary water issues are already being addressed by international task forces, and this book can deal only with how climate change might affect their decisions. However, anticipation of climate change can be the stim- ulus for improving interventions and speeding action as has been seen in other countries such as in Australia, where water laws and management were extensively changed in response to a prolonged drought and the anticipation of further climate change. By nature, adaptation to climate change is a dynamic process, and so is the governance of adaptation. Political change, including changes origi- nating from the Arab Spring, can provide an opportunity to increase civil society participation in adaptation governance and a move toward a more inclusive approach to addressing climate change issues and building cli- mate resilience. Notes 1. The members of the League of Arab States are Algeria, Bahrain, the Co- moros, Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Leba- non, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, the West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. 34 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 1.5 Jordan Desert Ecosystems and Livelihoods Project The goal of a partnership between the ieh (subdistricts within the Ma’an governo- World Bank’s Middle East and North Africa rate), and Deisa (Aqaba governorate) will be Region and the Jordan Desert Ecosystems targeted; in the north, ecotourism activities and Livelihoods Project (DELP) is to con- will be implemented along a route that tribute to the enhancement of livelihoods in begins in Al Azraq (southeast of Amman) desert ecosystems by harnessing their value and ends in the Burqu protected area in the in an environmentally and socially sustain- east, targeting the communities in the Ar able manner so that the flow of desert Ruwayshid poverty pocket. To enhance the goods and services can be optimized. The returns on investment, the route will link program, which includes projects in Algeria, to Al Azraq and Shaumari—with impor- Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco, will promote tant and already established protected areas deserts in the region as ecosystems of major and ecolodge facilities—to offer an ideal importance, offering a full range of intrinsic itinerary. Jordan’s Badia region makes up values, through unique and highly adaptive 80 percent of the country’s territory and services. has about 6.5 percent of the population. The Jordan DELP is one of four pro- Bedouin communities live and practice sea- jects under the umbrella of the program. sonal livestock browsing in the Badia, which Its goal is to sustain ecosystem services also contains significant and unique habitats and livelihoods in four poverty pockets in of global importance and supports a number the Badia region through diversification of of endangered species. community income sources; preservation During the past 20 years, anthropo- and sustainable use of natural and range- genic pressures, mainly overgrazing and land resources; and capacity enhancement speculative agricultural and mining initia- of target stakeholders and beneficiaries. tives, as well as climate change impacts, Main project activities will include (a) sup- have severely degraded the land and the porting sustainable rangeland rehabilitation Badia’s unique biodiversity. The Bedouin and livelihoods in the southern Badia and in Jordan are the main custodians of the (b) promoting community-centered eco- Badia ecosystem and also the main resource tourism and resource use in the northern users. Therefore, restoration and preser- Badia, along with complementary capacity- vation of the Badia’s degraded ecosystem building, awareness-raising, and knowledge services need to go hand in hand with management activities. improvements in the Bedouin’s livelihoods. The Jordan DELP will focus on four The Jordan project is responsive to Global poverty pockets in southern and northern Environment Fund strategies and priorities Badia. In the south, an area that comprises under the Biodiversity and Land Degrada- the poverty pockets of Al Jafr, Al Hussein- tion focal areas. Source: Authors’ compilation. Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries 35 2. IPCC (2007) points out that there are “sharp differences across regions, and those in the weakest economic position are often the most vulnerable to climate change and are frequently the most susceptible to climate-related damages, especially when they face multiple stresses. There is increasing evi- dence of greater vulnerability of specific groups.” IPCC (2007) makes spe- cific mention of traditional peoples and ways of living only in the cases of polar regions and small island states. 3. In 2003, the total population of the region reached 305 million (4.7 percent of the world’s population). The population grew at an annual average rate of 2.6 percent in the past two decades (Tolba and Saab 2009). In the Arab coun- tries, around 85 million people live on less than US$2 per day—that is, 30 percent of the region’s total population in 2000. 4. The Arab countries have contributed less than 5 percent of the total accumu- lated carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. 5. The yearly median value is 403 cubic meters per capita. 6. The highest temperature was measured in Pakistan (53.5°C, or 128.3°F); the other four Arab countries were Iraq (52.0°C), Saudi Arabia (52.0°C), Qatar (50.4°C), and Sudan (49.7°C). See http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1831. Oman, specifically Khasab Airport, recorded a new world high minimum temperature with a scorching 41.7°C (107.0°F) low on June 23, 2011. 7. Only Cyclone Gonu of 2007, a category 5 storm, was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone, killing about 50 people in Oman, with damage estimated at roughly US$4.2 billion. 8. This report does not address in detail topics that are being addressed exten- sively in other ongoing work in the Middle East and North Africa Region of the World Bank, such as climate migration. 9. The Western term Bedouin is actually a double plural. In the Arabic lan- guage, the people known as Bedouin refer to themselves as Bedu (also plural). This report uses Bedouin because it is the recognizable English language term. The definition of who is and who is not a Bedouin has become some- what confused in recent times, as circumstances have changed and the desert herders have had to adapt their traditional nomadic life. Generally speaking, a Bedouin is an Arab who lives in one of the desert areas of the Middle East and raises camels, sheep, or goats. The Bedouin traditionally believe they are the descendants of Shem, son of Noah, whose ancestor was Adam, the first man (according to the book of Genesis of the Bible). Bedouin are considered by some to be the “most indigenous” of modern Middle Eastern peoples (http://www.everyculture.com/wc/Rwanda-to-Syria/Bedu.html, March 5, 2011), meaning that they lived in the region before anyone else. The first appearance of nomadic peoples in the Arabian Desert can be traced back as far as the third millennium BCE. 10. Somalia’s annual GDP per capita is US$600 (purchasing power parity, 2010 estimates) according to the CIA World Factbook (http://ciaworldfactbook. us/home). 11. A drought is defined as an extended period (months to years) during which a region receives consistently below-average precipitation, leading to low river flows, reduced soil moisture, and thus adverse effects on agriculture, ecosys- tems, and the economy. 36 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries 12. These analyses were conducted by the authors on the basis of a modeling suite, including downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and subnational-level economic modeling. 13. An overview of adaptation frameworks is given in Füssel 2009. 14. Sensitivity and adaptive capacity is usually inversely correlated, as shown for Eastern European countries and Central Asia in Fay, Block, and Ebinger (2010). 15. For an overview of available tools to assist in climate risk analysis, see http:// climatechange.worldbank.org/climatechange/content/note-3-using- climate-risk-screening-tools-assess-climate-risks-development-projects. 16. The UNFCCC is the ideal political forum for reaching agreement on inter- national action on climate change. Fully meeting the challenges of climate change will require action at many levels and through many channels. References Allison, Ian, Nathaniel Bindoff, Robert Bindschadler, Peter Cox, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Matthew England, Jane Francis, Nicolas Gruber, Alan Haywood, David Karoly, Georg Kaser, Corinne Le Quéré, Tim Lenton, Mi- chael Mann, Ben McNeil, Andy Pitman, Stefan Rahmstorf, Eric Rignot, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Stephen Schneider, Steven Sherwood, Richard Somer- ville, Konrad Steffen, Eric Steig, Martin Visbeck, and Andrew Weaver. 2009. The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science. Syd- ney: University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre. Chomiz, Kenneth. 2011. “Climate Change and the World Bank Group: Climate Adaptation.” Independent Evaluation Group, World Bank, Washington, DC. Diaz, Estebancio Castro. 2008. “Climate Change, Forest Conservation, and In- digenous Peoples’ Rights.” Paper presented at the International Expert Group Meeting on Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change, Darwin, Australia, April 2–4. Fay, Marianne, Rachel I. Block, and Jane Ebinger. 2010. Adapting to a Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Washington, DC: World Bank. Füssel, Hans-Martin. 2009. “An Updated Assessment of the Risks from Climate Change Based on Research Published Since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Re- port.” Climatic Change 97 (3): 469–82. Gerritsen, Rolf. 2008. “Constraining Indigenous Livelihoods and Adaptation to Climate Change in SE Arnhem Land, Australia.” Paper presented at the In- ternational Expert Group Meeting on Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change, Darwin, Australia, April 2–4. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability—Working Group II Contribution to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. ———. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovern- mental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. Kronik, Jakob, and Dorte Verner. 2010. Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean. Washington, DC: World Bank. Climate Change Is Happening Now, and People Are Affected in Arab Countries 37 Mearns, Robin, and Andrew Norton. 2009. The Social Dimension of Climate Change: Equity and Vulnerability. Washington, DC: World Bank. OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2009. “In- tegrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation.” Paris: OECD. Parry, Martin L., Oswaldo F. Canziani, Jean P. Palutikof, Paul J. van der Linden, and Clair Hanson, eds. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability—Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. Smith, Kimberly. 2008. “Climate Change on the Navajo Nations Lands.” Paper presented at the International Expert Group Meeting on Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change, Darwin, Australia, April 2–4. Stern, Nicholas. 2007. Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. Cam- bridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. Sulyandziga, Rodion. 2008. “Indigenous Peoples of the North, Siberia, and Far East and Climate Change: From Participation to Policy Development and Adaptation Measures—Challenges and Solutions.” Paper presented at the In- ternational Expert Group Meeting on Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change, Darwin, Australia, April 2–4. Tauli-Corpuz, Victoria, and Aqqaluk Lynge. 2008. “Impact of Climate Change Mitigation Measures on Indigenous Peoples and on Their Territories and Lands.” United Nations, Permanent Forum of Indigenous Peoples, Seventh Session, New York. Tolba, Mostafa K., and Najib W. Saab. 2009. “Arab Environment Climate Change: Impacts of Climate Change on Arab Countries.” Arab Forum for Environment and Development, Beirut. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). 2011. Human Development Report 2011: Sustainability and Equity—A Better Future for All. New York: Pal- grave Macmillan. http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2011/. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. 2010. “Experts Will Be Studying Political and Social Conflicts Caused by Climate Change and the Fight for Water in Eleven Regions of Europe and Africa.” Press release, February 24. http:// www.alphagalileo.org/ViewItem.aspx?ItemId=69107&CultureCode=en. Verner, Dorte, ed. 2010. Reducing Poverty, Protecting Livelihoods, and Building As- sets in a Changing Climate: Social Implications of Climate Change Latin America and the Caribbean. Washington, DC: World Bank. Weiss, Harvey, and Raymond S. Bradley. 2001. “What Drives Societal Collapse.” Science 291 (5504): 609–10. World Bank. 2010. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. Washington, DC: World Bank. ———. 2011a. “Syria Rural Development in a Changing Climate: Increasing Resilience of Income, Well-Being, and Vulnerable Communities.” Report 60765-SY-MENA, World Bank, Washington, DC. ———. 2011b. World Development Indicators 2011. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2010_EN_Table1_reprint.pdf. CHAPTER 2 Ways Forward for Climatology Although mostly arid or semiarid, the Arab region encompasses a diver- sity of climates, including temperate zones in the northern and higher elevations of the Maghreb and Mashreq, tropical ocean climates in the Comoros, and varied coastal climates along the Arabian, Mediterranean, and Red Seas; the Gulf of Arabia; and the Indian Ocean. Climate change is expected to have different impacts in these different climate zones. To date, the Arab region has not been addressed as a discrete region in climate change research assessments, such as in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. Typically, information must be inferred from analyses carried out in other regions. Recent literature from regional studies confirms the broad conclusions of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) regarding increasing temperatures and mostly reduced rainfall, but sometimes differs regarding the details. Although models generally agree on rainfall decrease in the Maghreb and Mashreq and on rainfall increase around the Horn of Africa, they agree less fre- quently on the already dry central part of the Arabian Peninsula. The future climate in this region will depend in large part on the position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (see box 2.1). All models project that it will move further northward but disagree on the precise displacement and location of that shift, although at least two-thirds of the models used in the IPCC AR4 indicate that the Horn of Africa and the southernmost part of the peninsula is projected to receive more rainfall. Much of the region also falls into the transitional zone between areas with projected decreases in rainfall and those with projected increases. Because models differ as to the precise location of that transition, it is difficult to project the exact magnitude of rainfall changes. Photograph by Dorte Verner 39 40 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 2.1 Some Basic Definitions Climate scenario: A climate scenario is a the world follow this approach; however, it plausible and often simplified representation requires substantial computer resources and of the future climate, based on an internally is comparatively slow. consistent set of climatological relationships North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): The that has been constructed for explicit use in North Atlantic Oscillation consists of investigating the potential consequences of opposing variations of barometric pres- anthropogenic climate change, often ser- sure between areas near Iceland and near ving as input to impact models. Climate the Azores. It affects the strength and projections often serve as the raw material position of the main westerly winds across for constructing climate scenarios, but cli- the Atlantic into Europe and the Mediter- mate scenarios usually require additional ranean. When the pressure difference is information, such as information about the high (NAO+), the westerlies are stronger observed current climate. A climate change and track more to the north, leading to scenario is the difference between a climate cool summers and mild wet winters in scenario and the current climate. Europe, but causing drier conditions in the Downscaling: The accuracy and repre- Mediterranean. In the opposite phase, the sentativeness of climate model data, among westerlies and the storms they bring track other factors, depend on using a high farther south, leading to cold winters in enough resolution to be able to represent Europe, but more storms in the Mediter- features of interest adequately. Global cir- ranean and more rain in North Africa. culation models (GCMs) cannot deliver this Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone resolution because of computer constraints. (ITCZ): The Inter-Tropical Convergence Therefore, high-resolution limited-area Zone is an equatorial zonal belt of low pres- regional climate models (RCMs) are used sure near the equator where the northeast to generate climate change scenarios at trade winds meet the southeast trade winds. a higher resolution. They are driven by As these winds converge, moist air is forced boundary conditions taken and interpolated upward, resulting in a band of heavy rain- from the GCM. In a “nudging” zone of typ- fall. This band moves seasonally. In Africa, ically a few grid points in the RCM grid, the it reaches its northernmost position in sum- GCM values are relaxed toward the RCM mer and also interacts with the Indian mon- grid. Inside this transition zone, the mete- soon, bringing rains to the southern part of orological fields are RCM generated. Every the Arab region (southern Sahel), but the few (typically six) hours, new boundary con- northward extent varies from year to year, ditions are generated from the GCM data. making both conventional weather forecast- In other words, the RCM can generate its ing and climate modeling difficult. own structures inside the domain, but the large-scale circulation depends on the driv- Storm surge: Storm surge is a rise of the ing GCM. Many modeling centers around seawater above the normal level along a Ways Forward for Climatology 41 BOX 2.1 Continued shore associated with a low-pressure in the atmosphere, the center of a tropical weather system, typically tropical cyclones cyclone will be warmer than its surround- and strong extratropical cyclones. It is the ings, a phenomenon called warm-core storm result of both the low pressure at the center systems. The term tropical refers to both the of the storm raising the ocean’s surface, as geographic origin of these systems, which well as the wind pushing the water in the form almost exclusively in tropical regions direction the storm is moving. The storm of the globe, and their formation in mari- surge is responsible for most loss of life in time tropical air masses. tropical cyclones worldwide. Climate extreme: Usually, both extreme Flash floods: Flash floods usually refer to weather events and extreme climate events rapid flooding that happens very suddenly, are referred to as climate extremes. In par- usually without advance warning. They are ticular, an extreme heat event (also referred different from regular floods, in that they to as a heat wave) is a prolonged period of often last less than six hours. Flash floods, excessively and uncomfortably hot weather, with intense rainfall, normally occur in which may be accompanied by high humid- association with the passage of a storm or ity. Following the general definition of an tropical cyclone, especially when the rain extreme event, there is no universal defini- falls too quickly on saturated soil or dry tion of a heat wave; the term is relative to soil that has poor absorption capacity. Flash the usual weather in the area. Temperatures floods may also refer to a flooding situation that people from a hotter climate consider when barriers holding back water fail, such normal can be termed a heat wave in a as the collapse of a natural ice or debris dam cooler area if they are outside the normal or a human-made dam. climate pattern for that area. The term is applied both to routine weather variations Tropical cyclone: A tropical cyclone is and to extraordinary spells of heat, which a storm system characterized by a large may occur only once a century. Severe heat low-pressure center and numerous thun- waves have caused catastrophic crop failures, derstorms that produce strong winds and thousands of deaths from hyperthermia, and heavy rain. Tropical cyclones strengthen other severe damages. Rainfall events of when water evaporated from the ocean is high intensity are often considered extreme, released as the saturated air rises, result- although natural variability may actually ing in condensation of water vapor con- account for the event as regularly occur- tained in the moist air. They are fueled ring. Often it is the impact of the event that by a different heat mechanism than other implies that the event is considered extreme; cyclonic windstorms such as nor’easters that is, the occurrence of a value of a weather and European windstorms. The character- or climate variable above (or below) a thresh- istic that separates tropical cyclones from old value or near the upper (or lower) end of other cyclonic systems is that at any height the range of its observed values. Source: IPCC 2012. 42 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Although several efforts are under way to improve the availability of downscaled climate change information for the Arab region based on existing global and regional circulation models and scenarios, the inter- national climate change modeling community is moving ahead with new global modeling approaches and climate change scenarios. This effort will include a new set of improved and consistent modeling re- sults that will be available for all regions, with the first results appearing within the next one to two years. How these new scenarios will compare to existing knowledge is still unclear, although preliminary analysis sug- gests that the results are broadly in line with the results provided in this chapter. Regional and local climate projections depend on the availability of a good set of observational data to determine current trends and to trans- late outputs from global climate models to regional scales (downscaling). Unfortunately, many observational and modeling gaps exist in the study of climate change in the Arab region. Under these circumstances, it is important not to fall into the trap of interpolating from global informa- tion and applying it to the region, or of jumping from interpretations of long-term projections to statements about the near term. This chapter brings together various pieces of work communicated through the inter- national scientific literature that have been done for the Arab region, which provide an insight into the region’s future climate. From that ma- terial, this chapter finds that the Arab region will remain predominately arid, with some areas becoming even drier and hotter, but rainfall pat- terns will change, and the increase in flooding events already being ob- served is likely to continue in the future. Despite Sparse Observational Data, the Projections Are That Most of the Arab Region Is Becoming Hotter and Drier The climate in Arab countries ranges from the Mediterranean, with warm and dry summers and wintertime rainfall, through subtropical zones, with variable amounts of summer monsoon rains, to deserts with virtually no rain. During winter, variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation influ- ences the position of storm tracks; annual variations in rainfall in western and central North Africa (the Maghreb), most of the Mashreq, and the northern part of the Arabian Peninsula are largely governed by this NAO effect. The eastern part of the region (the eastern parts of the Mashreq, the Gulf, and central part of the Arabian Peninsula), where it rains mainly during the winter, is almost without rainfall in summer. The southeast of the region (the Republic of Yemen and Oman) is influenced by the Indian Ways Forward for Climatology 43 monsoon system, which is largely controlled by the position of the ITCZ (see box 2.1), and therefore has a secondary summer maximum of rainfall. Occasionally, these countries also experience serious consequences of tropical cyclones. There Is a Scarcity of Meteorological Surface Observation With a few exceptions, the availability of climate-station data to establish baseline climate across the Arab region is very limited compared to most other parts of the world (map 2.1). This scarcity of data hampers detec- tion of climate change as well as the interpretation of projected changes, because changes must be compared to a verifiable current climate. The rescue of existing but undigitized climate data and the establishment of well-chosen, permanent, high-quality observational sites will be neces- sary to establish more rigorous models in the future. Map 2.1 does not show all of the station data available in the region because not all data are available through open-access databases. Most of data are withheld, even between government departments, for military or other reasons. As an example, map 2.2 shows rainfall stations in 2007 run by the Republic of Yemen’s Ministry of Irrigation and Agriculture. Only a few of these sta- tions are available through open-access databases. MAP 2.1 Spatial Distribution of Stations with at Least 10 Years of Monthly Rainfall Source: Schneider et al. 2010. Note: Available in the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) database (global number of stations in June: 64,471). 44 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries MAP 2.2 Rainfall Stations in the Republic of Yemen Run by the Ministry of Irrigation and Agriculture, 2007 Rain stations 2007 (Network B) Major road networks 0 62.5 125 250 375 500 Kilometers Source: Rob L. Wilby, personal communication with author, 2011. Note: Data were provided to Wilby after extensive discussions with local authorities. The distribution of quality-controlled, long-term observational sites within the Arab region is uneven (box 2.2). For historical reasons, a num- ber of stations exist along the Nile and the coast of the Mediterranean Sea, but further inland coverage is very sparse. Conflict in parts of the region disrupts both the collection and the sharing of data. However, in many areas additional data are likely being gathered by various agencies but are not being entered into more widely available meteorological databases. A more general awareness of, and access to, additional databases will greatly enhance opportunities for regional understanding and use of geo- graphically distributed information. The rescue of existing data, their digitization, and their homogenization are crucial for building capacities to further strengthen mapping and understanding of the baseline climate and ongoing changes within Arab countries (box 2.3). Ways Forward for Climatology 45 BOX 2.2 Observational Networks Meteorological services throughout the region should consider extending and should secure the spatial coverage of their observa- tional networks. This action is necessary for ensuring a minimal station density, which is required to reflect climate variability and possible change. Furthermore, ensuring an adequate network will also be beneficial to the quality of weather forecasting and early warning systems. Source: Authors’ compilation. BOX 2.3 Access to Data Meteorological and hydrological institutes or services: Ser- vices should provide access to quality-controlled weather and climate data. Often, meteorological services are under the govern- ance of the Ministry of Defense, and the most recent meteorologi- cal data might be regarded as sensitive and restricted information; therefore, a civil authority should be in charge of making less recent data (for example, older than one year) available at daily or subdaily frequencies. Along with this, it is important to provide and regularly update a compilation of the data available, the con- ditions for their use, and the procedures to access the data. Data rescue and digitization: Promotion of data rescue and digitization of manually archived meteorological data will enhance access and understanding of climate change information at national and regional levels. Digitization must include documen- tation about the data source, such as station location and possible relocations, instrumentation, environment, and all changes. Such an initiative is also important to safeguard documents, which oth- erwise may be lost. Source: Authors’ compilation. 46 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Aridity Predominates, but the Arab Region Contains a Wide Range of Climates As in most of the world, the critical climate variable for human settlement patterns in the Arab region is rainfall. All desert regions receive annual rainfall totals of less than 200 millimeters. The result of combining the available observations through geographic information system (GIS) mapping is presented in map 2.3. The central parts of the Sahara receive less than 50 millimeters. In a region ranging from southwestern Algeria to western Egypt, no rain at all was observed during the 20th century. Mediterranean zones in the north and subtropical regions in the south typically receive above 500 millimeters of rainfall per year, whereas the annual rainfall in southern Sudan and the Comoros is more than 1,000 millimeters. Consequently, most of the Arab region is classified as hot arid desert. As in other arid regions, rainfall varies greatly between years, with the coefficient of variation exceeding 100 percent in the deserts (see map 2.3 and annex 2A). This means that there can be years with little or no rainfall and years in which the rainfall greatly exceeds the average, but also that it is difficult to identify trends in the amount of rainfall. Mean annual temperature is between 20°C and 25°C in the desert regions, up to 28°C on the Arabian Peninsula, between 15°C and 20°C in the Mediterranean and subtropical zones, and close to 25°C in the tropi- MAP 2.3 Rainfall in Arab Countries and Year-to-Year Variations a. Mean annual rainfall Precipitation (mm) 0–50 50–100 100–200 200–400 400–600 600–800 800–1,000 1,000–1,500 > 1,500 Source: Authors’ representation. Note: Areas with mean annual rainfall of 0 millimeters are shown in white in panel a. Ways Forward for Climatology 47 cal regions. In tropical zones, the annual amplitude is very small, whereas variability increases further north. In the mountainous regions of Iraq, Lebanon, and Morocco, it is sometimes even cold enough for occasional snowfall. Often, monthly mean summer temperatures exceed 30°C and in a few places even 35°C (see annex 2A). Rainfall in most of the Arab countries depends partly on the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is the dominant source of climate variability in the Atlantic-European-Mediterranean and Middle East re- gions. Its influence can be seen in weather patterns, streamflows, and subsequent ecological and agricultural effects. Cullen et al. (2002) identi- fied two components of Middle Eastern streamflow variability. The first reflects rainfall-driven runoff and explains 80 percent of the variability in river flows from December to March. This component is correlated, on interannual to interdecadal time scales, to the NAO phase (in a positive NAO phase, the climate in the Middle East is cooler and drier than aver- age and vice versa for the negative phase). The second principal compo- nent (the so-called Khamsin) is related to spring snowmelt in the moun- tains and explains more than half of the streamflow variability from April to June. A prevailing positive NAO phase, as in the 1990s and 2000s, can therefore result in drought conditions in the region, including in the Euphrates-Tigris and Jordan River basins. b. Interannual variability Coefficient of variation (%) 0–10 10–20 20–30 30–40 40–50 50–75 75–100 > 100 48 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Arab Countries Have Warmed and Most Have Become Drier Despite some local deviations, the available evidence clearly indicates a warming trend within the past 100 years or more. In a publically available data set (GHCN2), there are 119 stations in the Arab region that can be regarded as having reliable data for the period 1961–90 (map 2.4, panel a). Most of them show an overall temperature increase of 0.2°C to 0.3°C per decade, mainly in the Maghreb and in Sudan. In the Mashreq, a number of stations, often in larger cities, show a temperature decrease for 1961–90, notably Damascus (Syrian Arab Republic) and Kuwait City (Kuwait). For the more recent period, 1991–2011, however, almost all 91 stations with data have a significant positive trend of 0.3°C to 0.4°C per decade (map 2.4, panel b). Inclusion of stations with larger data gaps (map 2.4, panels c and d) changes this result only slightly. The fact that temperatures rose only slightly or even decreased prior to 1990 may be related to the gener- MAP 2.4 Positive Temperature Trends Seen in the Majority of Available Ground Stations a. 1961–90, from 119 reliable stations b. 1991–2011, from 91 reliable stations c. 1961–90, from 196 reliable stations d. 1991–2011, from 130 reliable stations ΔT≥3 C/100yrs 2≤ΔT<3 1≤ΔT<2 0≤ΔT<1 Source: Authors’ representation. –1≤ΔT<0 Note: Panels a and b show only stations regarded as reliable (more than 15 months available for any individual month in –2≤ΔT<–1 –3≤ΔT<–2 the reference period 1961–90). Panels c and d also include stations regarded as less reliable (but with more than five ΔT≤–3 months available for the period). The analysis is based on unadjusted GHCN2 data; that is, no strict homogeneity testing has been applied. Red represents a positive trend, and blue a negative trend. The size of the circles indicates the size of ΔT/σΔT≥2.58 the trend (see legend). Significance level of a trend is indicated by a yellow dot (1–2 standard deviations) or square 1.96≤ΔT/σΔT<2.58 (above 2 standard deviations). Ways Forward for Climatology 49 ally positive NAO phase during this period. The few stations with longer records suggest that rainfall has decreased over the past century. During recent decades, a wealth of satellite information that can aug- ment ground observations has become available (map 2.5). Improved ca- pacity to use existing international programs and take part in the design of future programs for satellite retrievals and data products therefore ap- pears to be a necessity (box 2.4). Even with all available ground-based observations at hand, the spatial coverage will remain limited throughout the region. As a result, no systematic analyses or verification of the pres- ent climate as it can be interpreted from satellites have been provided from within the Arab region. Map 2.4 shows large regions with almost no observations in the Arab world. To obtain climate information from regions otherwise void of data, reanalyses can be used. They are designed to use as much relevant infor- mation as possible from an incomplete, possibly error-prone observational database and can therefore serve as an approximate ground truth. Several of these products are available, covering the past several decades. Reanaly- ses are useful not only to derive climatologies for regions without conven- tional data, but also, for example, to construct drought-monitoring in- dexes (see Villholth et al. 2012). Again, enhanced capacity to make best use of these data on a national and regional scale would be helpful. Three Case Studies from Different Regions of the Arab World A case study from the Maghreb: Morocco Annual and seasonal rainfall varies greatly in Morocco, with coefficients of variation ranging from 25 percent in coastal areas to more than 100 percent in the Sahara (Knippertz, Christoph, and Speth 2003; see also map 2.3). Nevertheless, rainfall has declined since the 1960s by as much as 40 percent in spring. This trend coincides with the change from a gen- erally negative NAO phase to a more recent dominant positive phase. The maximum length of dry spells has also increased by more than two weeks over the same period (Wilby 2007a), and the Atlas Mountains have experienced less rainfall (Chaponniere and Smakhtin 2006). A case study within the Mashreq Recently, Wilby (2010) prepared climate change observations and pro- jections for the Mashreq countries of Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria in the eastern Mediterranean. Here the data availability is less favorable than in Morocco. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) lists 11 sta- tions for Jordan, 7 for Lebanon, and 24 for Syria. Önol and Semazzi (2009) have gathered data from a number of additional stations. How- ever, regions without any data also exist, particularly in western Iraq, east- 50 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries MAP 2.5 Spatial Distribution of Rainfall from a Study Conducted in the Region, 1998–2009 a. RegCM_B50 annual rainfall b. TRMM annual rainfall 1 20 30 40 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Millimeters Source: Almazroui 2011. Note: Rainfall data (millimeters) in panel a were simulated by a regional climate model (RegCM); data in panel b were obtained by averaging TRMM satellite data; all are averaged for the period 1998–2009. BOX 2.4 Capacity Building Using Regional Climate Information An important aim for all governments is to exploit international programs and data products that are useful on a national or regional level. These available programs include the use of satellite retrievals and derived products as well as the use of comprehensive data sets such as reanalysis products. Since the late 1970s, a wealth of satellite information has become available, which in many cases can be used to augment surface observations. Reanalyses make best use of all available data for the region and can therefore serve as a ground truth where no ground observations are available. Further, capacity building is needed in almost all Arab countries to make use of and visualize climate data information, for example, by means of geographic information systems. Therefore, developing a stronger regional collaboration between government agencies, research institutions, and universities is important. Success is contingent on the capacity to coordinate and promote a broad awareness and wide dissemination of generated knowledge. Source: Authors’ compilation. Ways Forward for Climatology 51 ern Jordan, and northern Syria. The present-day climate in this region is quite different from countries further west, with relatively cool, wet win- ters and hot, dry summers, generally without any rain. Temperature and rainfall are strongly affected by altitude and the distance from the sea (see, for example, map 2.5). In the Lebanon Mountains, up to 1,400 millime- ters per year of rain are observed (in winter it is often snow), but the deserts of southeast Syria and southern Jordan receive less than 100 mil- limeters per year. Temperatures above 50°C have been observed near the Dead Sea. To explore the time-space characteristics of rainfall, daily re- scaled data from the TRMM satellite observations have been used (Kum- merow et al. 2000; Simpson, Adler, and North 1988). A temperature rise since the 1970s has been observed in all three coun- tries. Mahwed (2008) considered meteorological records at 26 stations in Syria; Freiwan and Kadio˘ glu (2008a, 2008b) examined monthly rainfall data from Jordan; and Shahin (2007) looked at several stations through- out the Middle East. The greatest warming has occurred for summer minimum temperatures, which have risen at a rate of 0.4°C per decade. Consequently, a decrease in the diurnal temperature range has been ob- served, which is consistent with earlier studies (Nasrallah and Balling 1993; Zhang et al. 2005). There is no clear indication whether rainfall has changed in recent decades, but estimates from TRMM data (map 2.5) suggest a slight decrease in winter and spring, probably related to shifts in cyclone tracks. However, the trends are small compared to the interan- nual variability (Wilby 2010). Map 2.5 illustrates that a regional climate model (RCM) as used within the region is able to faithfully simulate rain- fall climatology to a large extent. A case study from the Arabian Peninsula Wilby (2008) compiled an assessment of climate and climate change for the Republic of Yemen, despite the lack of reliable data. Obvious errors and missing data make it particularly difficult to apply statistical down- scaling procedures. The lack of obvious trends in rainfall averages or ex- tremes may be, in part, due to bad data. The only station in the Republic of Yemen with a reasonably long and reliable time series for rainfall is Aden, for which monthly means exist since 1880. However, that station shows no significant trends in annual rainfall. More Extreme Events Are Being Observed From a climate change point of view, changes in extremes are more inter- esting than changes in average values. Unfortunately, researchers do not always use the same definitions of extremes (Bonsal et al. 2001), making it difficult to make global or even regional comparisons. Frich et al. (2002) 52 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries tried to standardize definitions of extreme indexes, but they focused on areas with ample data, which meant the indexes were difficult to apply in large parts of the world, including the Arab region. Figure 2.1 shows time series anomalies averaged over the Middle East for the hottest days (that is, days with a maximum temperature higher than 90 percent of those observed over the baseline period 1971–2000) and the coolest days (that is, days in which the maximum temperature is in the lowest 10th percentile). Both a decrease in the number of the cool- est days and a more recent abrupt increase in the number of the hottest days are visible. Trends have also become more coherent and more sig- nificant in recent periods (Zhang et al. 2005). For rainfall, the results are much more variable. FIGURE 2.1 Change in Days with Maximum and Minimum Temperatures a. Maximum temperatures 12 8 Percent 4 0 –4 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 b. Minimum temperatures 12 8 Percent 4 0 –4 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Zhang et al. 2005. Note: Time series anomalies, averaged over stations in the Middle East, of the percentage of days with maximum temperature above the 90th (maximum) and below the 10th (minimum) percentile with respect to the period 1971–2000, with the linear trend for the period 1950–2003. Ways Forward for Climatology 53 IPCC AR4 Projects Warming and Aridity For the IPCC AR4, a broad range of climate models were coordinated to perform a large number of simulations with GCMs for the known histori- cal forcings (anthropogenic and natural) and various future emission sce- narios in order to assess climate change projections. Taken together with information from observations, these coordinated simulations (referred to as a multimodel data set, or MMD) provide a quantitative basis for as- sessing many aspects of future climate change. All models assessed in the IPCC AR4 have projected increases in global mean surface air tempera- ture continuing throughout the 21st century and driven by increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, with warming propor- tional to the associated radiative forcing. The best estimated projections indicate that decadal average warming by 2030 is insensitive to the choice among the three nonmitigated scenarios from the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), that is, the B1, A1B, and A2 (map 2.6). Furthermore, the projected warming is very likely to exceed the natural variability observed during the 20th century (about 0.2°C per decade in the global average). By the end of the 21st century (2090–99), projected global average air warming relative to 1980–99, under the SRES emission scenarios, will range from a best estimate of 1.8°C (likely range 1.1°C to 2.9°C) for the low scenario (B1) to a best estimate of 4.0°C (likely range 2.4°C to 6.4°C) for the high scenario (A2) and to a best estimate of 2.8°C (likely range 1.7°C to 4.4°C) for the moderate scenario (A1B) (IPCC 2007). Warming is very likely to be greatest over land, with a maximum over the high northern latitudes, and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean. Projected Changes in Climate over the Next Few Decades Do Not Depend on the Scenario Chosen Much of the uncertainty in climate projections for the end of the century arises from the particular emission scenario (emission pathway) selected. However, in the near term (until about 2050), the scenario choice is not very important. This range is depicted by map 2.6. The left column rep- resents the projected model mean temperature change for the near term, and the right column shows the projected change at the end of the cen- tury, both for three quite different emission scenarios. IPCC AR4 Projects Drying and Warming for the Arab Region The Arab countries lie within three neighboring subregions used by the IPCC AR4 SRES. For the purpose of this review, the African do- 54 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries MAP 2.6 Projected Surface Temperature Changes for the Early and Late 21st Century Relative to the Period 1980–99 2020–29 2090–99 B1 A1B A2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 Degrees Celsius Source: Meehl et al. 2007. Note: The two panels show the AOGCM multimodel average projections for the B1 (top), A1B (middle), and A2 (bottom) SRES sce- narios averaged over the decades 2020–29 (left) and 2090–99 (right). The dependency on the scenario is insignificant for the near future but will become increasingly important toward the end of the century. mains provide the most complete coverage of the areas of interest (map 2.7). • The Arab countries are expected to warm by between 3°C and 4°C by the late 21st century under the IPCC A1B emission scenario, which is roughly 1.5 times the global mean response. Warming is evident in all seasons, with the greatest increase in summer (map 2.7, upper panel; J. H. Christensen, Hewitson et al. 2007). Ways Forward for Climatology 55 MAP 2.7 Temperature and Rainfall Changes over Africa (and the Arabian Peninsula) Based on 21 IPCC AR4 Models under the IPCC A1B Scenario Annual mean December–January–February June–July–August 10°C 7 5 Temperature changes (°C) 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 –0.5 –1 50% 30 Relative change 20 in rainfall (%) 15 10 5 0 –5 –10 –15 –20 –30 –50 21 Models Number of models 19–20 17–18 14–16 8–13 5–7 3–4 1–2 0 Source: J. H. Christensen, Hewitson et al. 2007. Note: Top row: annual mean, northern hemisphere winter, and summer, temperature (°C) changes over periods 1980–99 and 2080–99 averaged over 21 models. Middle row: same as top row, but for relative change (percentage) in rainfall. Bottom row: number of models out of 21 that project increases in rainfall. • Models project a northward displacement of the ITCZ but disagree on how far. Therefore there is general agreement on an increase in rain- fall around the Horn of Africa, but less agreement about the change over the already dry central part of the Arabian Peninsula (map 2.7, middle and lower panels; J. H. Christensen, Hewitson et al. 2007). • Annual rainfall is expected to decrease in much of Mediterranean Af- rica but increase in East Africa and the southern half of the Arabian Peninsula. A 20 percent drying in the annual mean is typical along the African Mediterranean coast in the A1B scenario by the late 21st cen- tury in nearly every climate model, with drying extended down the 56 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries west coast. The annual number of rainy days is very likely to decrease, and the risk of summer drought is likely to increase in the Mediterra- nean basin (see also map 2.10, later in this chapter). All the GCM outputs of the scenario projections for temperature, rainfall, and other relevant extreme indexes for the Arab region were combined for this report. The evidence shows that although all models agree on strong warming, they agree on rainfall changes for only some parts of the region (see map 2.8). Although agreeing on a projected warm- ing, the models show a large spread in the projected change in the mean. Map 2.9 illustrates the range between a low (MRI model from Japan) and high (ECHAM5 from Germany) model response compared to the overall MAP 2.8 Projected Climate Change for Late This Century a. Mean annual temperature change, 1980–99 to 2080–99 Degrees Celsius 2 – 2.5 2.5 – 3.0 3.0 – 3.5 3.5 – 4.0 4.0 – 4.5 b. Mean annual rainfall change, 1980–99 to 2080–99 Millimeters –100 – –50 –50 – –25 –25 – 0 0 – 25 25 – 50 50 – 100 +100 Source: Authors’ compilation. Note: Panel a: mean annual temperature change (2080–99 versus 1980–99) based on an average of the 24 IPCC AR4 GCMs. Panel b: mean an- nual rainfall change (2080–99 versus 1980–99) based on an average of 23 GCMs. White areas indicate where fewer than two-thirds of the mod- els agree on the sign of the change. Ways Forward for Climatology 57 model mean. For rainfall, consensus does not exist regarding the sign of rainfall change (white areas in map 2.7, lower panel, and map 2.8). This disagreement is to be expected because current rainfall is low and very variable, and the models suggest that this will continue, with sometimes a little less or a little more rainfall, but still largely dry. Interpreting Climate-Related Extreme Events Needs to Consider Many Factors Extremes occur even without climate change Extreme events are not interpreted purely from a meteorological point of view. A weather or climate event, although not necessarily extreme in a statistical sense, may still have an extreme impact, either because it crosses a critical threshold in a social, ecological, or physical system, or because it occurs simultaneously with another event, which, in combination, leads to extreme conditions or impacts. Conversely, not all extremes necessar- ily lead to severe impacts. The impact of a tropical cyclone depends on where and when it makes landfall. Changes in phenomena, such as mon- soons, may affect the frequency and intensity of extremes in several re- gions simultaneously, which indicates that the severity of an event may also depend on the overall geographical scale being affected. A critical or even intolerable threshold defined for a large region may be exceeded before many, or any, of the smaller regions within it exceed local extreme definitions (for example, local versus global drought). MAP 2.9 Annual Mean Temperature Response in Africa in 2 out of 21 IPCC AR4 Models a. ECHAMS/MPI-OM b. MRI-CGCM2.3.2 c. MEAN –1 –0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 5 7 10 Degrees Celsius Source: J. H. Christensen, Hewitson et al. 2007. Note: Shown is the temperature change from the periods 1980–99 to 2080–99 under the A1B scenario for the ECHAM5 model (left), the MRI model (center), and the mean of all 21 available models (right). 58 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Many weather and climate extremes are the result of natural climate variability (including phenomena such as El Niño). At the same time, natu- ral decadal or multidecadal variations in the climate provide the backdrop for possible anthropogenic changes. Even if no anthropogenic changes in the climate were to occur over the next century, a wide variety of natural weather and climate extremes would still occur. Projections of changes in climate means are not always a good indicator of trends in climate extremes. For example, observation and modeling show that rainfall intensity may increase in some areas and seasons even as total rainfall decreases. Thus, an area might be subject to both drier conditions and more flooding. This is illustrated on a global scale (map 2.10). Based on a multimodel analysis they found simulated increases in rainfall intensity for the end of the 21st century (upper panel), along with a somewhat weaker and less clear trend of increasing dry periods between rainfall events for the A1B scenario (lower panel). For the Arab region, the statistical signal is weak but with an indication of increasing risk of both increased rainfall inten- sity and increased length of dry day spells. Extreme impacts do not require extreme climate events Events that may be perceived as extreme may actually be due to the com- pound effect from two or more extreme events, combinations of extreme events with amplifying events or conditions, or combinations of events that are not in themselves extreme but that lead to an extreme event or impact when combined. The contributing events can be similar (clustered multiple events) or very different. There are several varieties of clustered multiple events, such as tropical cyclones with the same path generated a few days apart. Examples of compound events resulting from events of different types are varied: for instance, high sea level coinciding with tropical cyclone landfall, or a combined risk of flooding from sea-level surges and rainfall-induced high river discharge (van den Brink et al. 2005). Compound events can even result from “contrasting extremes,” for example, the projected near-simultaneous occurrence of both droughts and heavy rainfall events mentioned earlier or, more anecdotally, flash flooding following bushfires attributable to fire-induced thunderstorms (for example, Tryhorn et al. 2008). Overall, this is an area where little research has been carried out, even at the international level. Climate-related extreme events as seen by climate models depend on resolution Extreme events are often localized in both space and time (for example, the track of an extreme thunderstorm), so the coarse-resolution climate models are not suited (nor designed) to capture the many extreme events that are so important from the point of view of impacts. This factor has been one of Ways Forward for Climatology 59 MAP 2.10 Changes in Rainfall Extremes Based on Multimodel Simulations from Nine Global Coupled Climate Models a. Precipitation intensity Standard deviation –1.25 –1 –0.75 –0.5 –0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 b. Dry days Standard deviation –1.25 –1 –0.75 –0.5 –0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 Source: Meehl et al. 2007. Note: Panel a: changes in spatial patterns of simulated rainfall intensity between two 20-year means (2080–99 minus 1980– 99) for the A1B scenario. Panel b: changes in spatial patterns of simulated dry days between two 20-year means (2080–99 minus 1980–99) for the A1B scenario. Stippling denotes areas where at least five of the nine models concur in determining that the change is statistically significant. Each model’s time series was centered on its 1980–99 average and normalized (rescaled) by its standard deviation computed (after detrending) over the period 1960–2099. The models were then aggre- gated into an ensemble average at the grid-box level. Thus, changes are given in units of standard deviations. 60 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries the major rationales for dynamical downscaling using RCMs (see box 2.5). Using Europe as an example, Christensen and Christensen showed that by using a high-resolution RCM nested in a GCM, a more realistic pattern of rainfall change can be simulated ( J. H. Christensen and O. B. Christensen 2003; O. B. Christensen and J. H. Christensen 2004). Map 2.11 illustrates this finding. For changes in the mean (left and middle panels), the increase in rainfall in southern Europe is confined to the southern slopes of the re- solved topography. In the coarse-resolution GCM, this precipitation in- crease is distributed over a much wider area than in the real world, whereas in the RCM, it is confined to much smaller regions. Therefore, projected changes in extreme rainfall (right panel) appear more credible when stem- ming from a high-resolution model. Downscaled Projections Are Available for the Region Several regional assessments of future climate in the Middle East and North Africa region have been conducted, building on new modeling and downscaling exercises (box 2.5). Most of them concentrate on the Mashreq and the Arabian Peninsula. A smaller number of studies have also been conducted for the Maghreb. Eastern Mediterranean and the Arabian Peninsula Are Projected to Become Drier, Especially in the Rainy Season Black (2009) investigated the projected change in the monthly mean rain- fall over the eastern Mediterranean and found a significant decrease in rainfall, on the order of 40 percent, at the peak of the rainy season (De- cember and January) over the Mashreq. This change is due to a reduction in both the frequency and duration of rainy events. Before and after the rainy season, the situation is less clear, with some areas projected to get wetter and others drier. These results are broadly consistent with wider surveys of global models included in the IPCC AR4 (for example, see Dai 2010; Evans 2009; Kitoh, Yatagai, and Alpert 2008; Lionello and Giorgi 2007) identified to be induced by the northward displacement and reduc- tion in the strength of the Mediterranean storm track and, consequently, a reduction in the number of cyclones that cross the eastern Mediterra- nean basin and reach the Mashreq (Bengtsson and Hodges 2006). Higher Resolution Modeling Is Needed to Improve Projections in the Complex Topography of the Mashreq Evans (2010) found that the climate change signal in rainfall differed be- tween the driving GCM and a higher resolution RCM nested therein. It Ways Forward for Climatology 61 BOX 2.5 Climate Models and Downscaling The accuracy and representativeness of cli- logical fields are RCM generated. Every few mate model data depend, among other fac- (typically six) hours, new boundary condi- tors, on the horizontal resolution. Features tions are generated from the GCM data. In smaller than the distance between two grid other words, the RCM can generate its own points cannot be resolved; therefore it is structures inside the domain, but the large- important to use a high enough resolution scale circulation depends on the driving to be able to represent features of interest GCM. Many modeling centers around the adequately, such as coastlines, islands, lakes, world follow this approach, which, however, and mountain ranges. requires substantial computer resources and A straightforward way of adding spa- is comparatively slow. tial detail to GCM-based climate change A third approach can be termed statistical scenarios could be so-called perturbation downscaling. Compared to the straightfor- experiments, where the GCM data are ward interpolation discussed above, addi- interpolated to a finer resolution, and then tional meteorological knowledge can go these interpolated changes are combined into these models. One example is the with observed high-resolution climate data. dependence of rainfall on height and wind In essence, however, this is only an inter- directions. From box map 2.5B, it is clear polation exercise, because it does not add that the GCM always underestimates the any meteorological information beyond height or steep slopes of mountain ranges. the GCM-based changes; furthermore, the Rainfall will therefore generally be under- method implies that the spatial patterns of estimated in the GCM compared to higher present-day climate are assumed to remain resolution approaches. Box maps 2.5A and constant in the future. 2.5B also show that there generally is a A second option, dynamical downscaling, directional dependence of rainfall (as in is more costly. A higher resolution limited- the case of the Atlas Range); that is, the area model (a regional climate model, or increase in rainfall with increasing resolu- RCM) is used to generate climate change tion will not be uniformly distributed but scenarios at a higher resolution. State-of- will actually depend on wind direction. At the-art RCMs have a typical resolution of least three general methods of statistical 25 kilometers, although a few investigations downscaling exist: those based on regres- have been conducted at higher resolution sion approaches, circulation-type schemes, on the 5- to 10-kilometer scale. Because and stochastic weather generators, which such a model covers only part of the globe, are used to construct site-specific scenarios. it needs boundary conditions generated by A weather generator is calibrated on an a global model. These boundary condi- observed daily weather series over some tions are interpolated from the GCM to the appropriate period, usually for a site, but RCM. In a “nudging” zone of typically a possibly for a catchment or a small grid box. few grid points in the RCM grid, the GCM It can then be used to generate any number values are relaxed toward the RCM grid. of series of daily weather for the respec- Inside this transition zone, the meteoro- tive spatial domain. Such a stochastic time 62 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 2.5 Continued series will in theory have the correct (that is, one region to another. Just as with an RCM, observed) climate statistics for that domain. the derived regional scenarios will depend The parameters of the weather generator on the validity of the GCM data. can then be perturbed using GCM output, As discussed above, there are considera- allowing the generator to yield synthetic ble uncertainties in deriving climate projec- daily weather for the climate change sce- tions for the Arab countries. Nevertheless, nario. However, to derive the appropriate some general conclusions can be drawn by parameter perturbation from the GCM taking into account the different sources data, other downscaling methods must be of uncertainties. Apart from observational used. It is also important to ensure that low- uncertainties, discussed earlier in this box, frequency variations (for example, multi- uncertainties may reflect future emissions, decadal variations) are adequately captured. natural climate variability, and differences Statistical downscaling approaches always between models. Future emissions are of require a very good observational database course uncertain, so a number of represent- from which to derive the statistical proper- ative emission scenarios have been defined ties. Therefore, the weather generator is not (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000; see also fig- necessarily cheaper or faster than running ure 2.3 later in this chapter). an RCM for dynamical downscaling. Also For the next 30–40 years, differences worth noting is that downscaling methods between these scenarios generally are generally cannot easily be transported from smaller than the other uncertainties. This Map B2.5.1 Topography of Northern Africa 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 1 degree Source: Authors’ representation. Note: The map is based on the GTOPO30 data set from the EROS Data Center (EDC) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC), Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Available online at http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/gtopo30/gtopo30.html. Also see Gesch, Verdin, and Greenlee (1999). Color coding is directly related to topographic height. The resolution is 1 kilometer. Ways Forward for Climatology 63 BOX 2.5 Continued Map B2.5.2 Model Topography at a Horizontal Resolution of 1 Degree a. Resolution of 1.0 degree (about 100 km) b. 0.2 Degrees (about 20 km) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 0.2 degree Source: Authors’ representation, based on the GTOPO30 data set. Note: In a comparison to the high-resolution map in map 2.5A, a resolution on the order of 20 kilometers is necessary to resolve features such as the Iranian Plateau, the Anti-Atlas, or the Al-Sarat in the Republic of Yemen. issue is discussed further in Prudhomme vertical, and temporal), and, consequently, et al. (2010) and Wilby and Dessai (2010). parameterization of subgrid-scale pro- The ratio between natural climate vari- cesses. However, most models have been ability (that would have occurred anyway validated extensively, so climate scientists regardless of human activities) and human- generally know for past and present cli- caused climate change can be quantified by mate how a model behaves in different running ensembles of simulations, that is, parts of the world and how sensitive it is to by using more than one GCM and more changes in concentrations of greenhouse than one RCM. gases or other forcings. From these con- Several large international programs siderations, scientists can assess an enve- exist that have followed this approach, and lope of probable climate changes under it has been applied, for example, in the future conditions. This has been taken IPCC AR4. Finally, differences between into account in the following paragraphs, models are caused by different mathemati- but is, for the sake of brevity, not men- cal formulation, resolution (horizontal, tioned every time. Source: Authors’ compilation. 64 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries MAP 2.11 Example of the Benefit from High-Resolution Modeling a. b. c. 40 30 20 10 0 –10 –20 –30 –40 Sources: J. H. Christensen and O. B. Christensen 2003; O. B. Christensen and J. H. Christensen 2004. Note: Panel a: simulated percentage change in rainfall at the end of the century with a coarse-resolution GCM (250-kilometer grid). Panel b: the same result for the RCM (50-kilometer grid). Panel c: percentage change in extreme rainfall for the same RCM. Blue contours show the 500-meter contours in the model topography according to the model resolution. is not clear whether the findings are also valid for other models. Much of the difference arises from the better resolution of the topography of the RCMs. Features that are visible in the RCM data but not in the GCM data affect the large-scale circulation, even in regions quite far away, by causing upslope air mass movement and subsequent rainfall in the RCM, whereas rain is dumped in the wrong locations in the GCMs because they cannot resolve these topographic structures. In the RCM simulation, temperature changes to the end of the century (map 2.12) are smallest in winter (around 2°C) and largest in summer (on the order of 5°C, but up to 10°C on the Iranian Plateau). According to this study, rainfall is projected to decrease over the Mashreq, whereas an increase is simulated in the central part of Saudi Arabia in summer and autumn (map 2.13). This reflects a change away from the direct dependence on storm tracks toward a greater amount of rainfall triggered by the lifting of moist air along the mountains, a fea- ture totally absent in the coarse-resolution simulations of Evans (2009). As a consequence, the rest of the Mashreq is projected to receive consid- erably less rain, mainly in winter and spring, which is also related to the displacement in the storm tracks. The Saudi Desert, on the other hand, could receive more rain in late summer when it is projected that the ITCZ will be further north than in the present-day climate. An increase in autumn rainfall is projected for southeastern Iraq and Kuwait (not shown), attributable to the advection of moist air along the Zagros Mountains (figure 2.2). Ways Forward for Climatology 65 MAP 2.12 MM5/CCSM Modeled Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature, 2095–99 compared with 2000–04 a. December–January–February b. March–April–May c. September–October–November d. June–July–August –4 –2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Degrees Celsius Source: Evans 2010. Note: The 0.9 and 0.99 significance levels are indicated by the thin and thick dotted lines. IPCC scenario A2. According to figure 2.2, a minor increase in rainfall is projected in late summer for the Fertile Crescent, including northeast Syria. For this re- gion, the rainfall contribution from storms will be less than for the present-day climate, and upslope lifting processes will play a larger role. 66 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries MAP 2.13 MM5/CCSM Modeled Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall, 2095–99 compared with 2000–04 a. December–January–February b. March–April–May c. September–October–November d. June–July–August –100 –60 –20 20 60 100 Millimeters Source: Evans 2010. Downscaled Models Project a Hotter and Drier Maghreb For Morocco and Mauritania, a temperature increase of about 5°C is pro- jected by the end of the century, with a maximum during the summer. This is related to a decrease in soil moisture attributable to decreasing rainfall and consequently an enhanced risk of droughts (J. H. Christensen, Ways Forward for Climatology 67 FIGURE 2.2 MM5/CCSM Modeled Monthly Mean Rainfall for Early and Late 21st Century a. Fertile Crescent b. Mediterranean Sea c. Saudi Desert 150 150 150 120 120 120 Precipitation (mm) Precipitation (mm) Precipitation (mm) 90 90 90 60 60 60 30 30 30 0 0 0 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Month Month Month CPC CCSM MM5-CCSM NNRP MM5-NNRP FAO (observed data) Source: Evans 2010. Note: Scenario A2 = CCSM, MM5-CCSM, NNRP, MM5-NNRP. Hewitson et al. 2007). Less clear is the effect of NAO trends and the sub- sequent possibility of enhanced droughts in a future climate, but a small tendency toward more positive NAO indexes and, therefore, less rainfall is backed up by two studies (Coppola et al. 2005; Rauthe, Hense, and Pa- eth 2004). Large differences exist between GCMs, with strong positive trends in ECHAM4 and no discernible trends at all in HadCM2 (Wilby 2007a). According to Krichak, Alpert, and Kunin (2010) and Raible et al. (2010), it could also be possible that increased polar intrusions following cyclone passages lead to no net winter rainfall change in the region. In Morocco, the data density is high enough to allow for a statistical downscaling approach. With HadCM3 as the driving GCM and using the A2 and B2 scenarios, climate projections have been calculated for 10 locations in Morocco (Wilby 2007a) as shown in figure 2.3. According to the study, temperature increases are smallest in Agadir (coastal station) and largest in Ouarzazate in the Atlas Mountains, where the summer temperature is projected to rise by more than 6°C by the 2080s. The frequency and severity of heat waves is projected to increase. According to Wilby (2007a), almost 50 days per year with a maximum above 35°C in Settat (near the coast) and Beni Mellal (in the Atlas foot- hills) are projected by the end of the century. Except in Agadir and Mar- rakech, less rainfall is projected, ranging from about a 25 percent decrease in the south to approximately a 40 percent decrease in the agroeconomic zone in the north. 68 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Map 2.14 shows an assessment of drought in the Mediterranean region (including substantial parts of the Maghreb) for present-day climate and two scenarios, each at two different horizontal resolutions (Gao and Giorgi 2008). Both scenarios show the drought risk around the Mediter- ranean Sea increasing from west to east, which is worse in the Mashreq but notable also in other regions, including southern Europe. Figure 2.4 shows rainfall statistics for the Mashreq. Most prominent are a statistically significant decrease in the number of rainy days and a general decrease in winter rainfall. According to the GCMs in J. H. Christensen, Hewitson et al. (2007) and RCM experiments by Önol and Semazzi (2009), temperatures in the region are projected to increase on the order of 2°C in winter and up to 6°C in the inland regions in summer. A reduction in winter rains on the order of 25 percent and an increase of drought duration by up to 60 percent are expected based on the A1B scenario (Kim and Byun 2009). The authors also predict a northward expansion of the Arabian Desert and an increase of autumn rainfall over the Fertile Crescent by up to 50 percent. Agricultural Lands Are Threatened by Increasing Aridity in the Mashreq Although less favorable than for Morocco, the data density is sufficient to allow for statistical downscaling in the Mashreq for stations in Amman (Jordan), Kamishli (Syria), and Kfardane (Lebanon). While for Kamishli, FIGURE 2.3 Mean Seasonal Temperature Changes for the 2080s Downscaled from HadCM3 under the A2 Emission Scenario Temperature scenarios for the 2080s 7 6 Change (degrees celsius) 5 4 3 2 1 0 Tanger Mekness Casablanca Settat Beni Mellal Marrakech Oujda Midelt Agadir Ouarzazate Dec–Feb Mar–May Jun–Aug Sep–Nov Source: Wilby 2007a. Ways Forward for Climatology 69 MAP 2.14 Projections of Drought Index a. Present day drought risks b. Future drought risks under A2 scenario c. Future drought risks under B2 scenario 1.1 2.3 3.4 10 Source: Gao and Giorgi 2008. Note: Panel a: reference simulation; panel b: difference in drought index between the A2 and reference simulations; panel c: difference for B2 and reference simulations. Aridity regimes are defined for index (Idx) values: 0 < Idx ≤ 1.1—humid (surplus moisture regime; steppe to forest vegetation), 1.1 < Idx ≤ 2.3—semihumid (moderately insufficient moisture; savanna), 2.3 < Idx ≤ 3.4—semiarid (insufficient moisture; semides- ert), 3.4 < Idx ≤ 10—arid (very insufficient moisture; desert), 10 < Idx—hyperarid (extremely insufficient moisture; desert). the present-day climate can be reconstructed quite well, results are less convincing for Amman. This may be the result of missing data and prob- lems associated with station relocation and urban growth (Smadi and Zghoul 2006). Depending on scenario and location, the models project temperature increases of 3–4°C (A2) and 2–3°C (B2), respectively, and rather large decreases in rainfall by up to 50 percent near the coast (Lattakia, Syria) and about 15–20 percent inland (for example, in Pal- myra, Syria) (Wilby 2010). This reduction in rainfall happens almost en- tirely during the winter, as generally no rain is observed at all during summer under present-day conditions. As mentioned above, it has been suggested (Evans and Geerken 2004) that the limit for rainfed agriculture is close to an average annual rainfall 70 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 2.4 Seasonal Cycle of Rainfall Statistics for the Mashreq a. b. 25 12 20 9 Total rainfall, mm 15 Rainy days 6 10 3 5 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 c. d. 3 8 Mean rainfall on wet days 6 2 Maximum 4 1 2 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 e. f. 0.2 0.6 0.4 p(rain) p(rain) 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Days 1961–90 2071–2100 Days Source: Black 2009. Note: Panels a–f: total rainfall, wet days, mean rainfall on wet days, maximum rainfall per wet day, probability of rainfall given no rainfall on the day before, and probability of rainfall given a wet day the day before as a function of the month. Red lines represent 1961–90, gold lines repre- sent 2071–2100 for the A2 SRES scenario. Ways Forward for Climatology 71 of 200 mm per year. Taking Amman as an example (average annual rain- fall for the period 1961–90 was 260 mm), this suggests that agriculture would no longer be possible in 2080. However, because of the large in- terannual variability (coefficient of variation in Amman is 38 percent, which implies that there is a 1 in 3 chance for an annual rainfall sum below 200 mm even in present-day conditions), agriculture could cease to be economically viable considerably earlier. On the basis of the HadCM3 data and the A2 scenario, the chance of a dry year (< 200 mm) would be 50 percent around 2020 and 80 percent around 2060. This finding is consistent with previous studies that suggest that a 200 mm low annual rainfall limit could move on the order of 75 kilometers northward by the end of the century (Evans 2009). If rainfall is too low, agriculture is tradi- tionally replaced by grazing. The same scenario projects an increase in the dry season from six to eight months by 2080 for Amman. Another RCM simulation covering the Arabian Peninsula and neigh- boring regions has been conducted (Tolba and Saab 2009). Apart from the coastal plains in Oman, Somalia, and the Republic of Yemen, where the salt marshes remain comparatively humid and therefore experience less warming, relatively uniform warming is projected. Rainfall changes are small in areas that are already arid under present-day conditions, but major drying is projected for the Mashreq. The Risk of Heat Stress Is Intensifying Increases of mean temperature in the future, and in particular an increase of extreme warm days, may increase the risk of heat stress. A recent study (Diffenbaugh et al. 2007) showed that under the A2 scenario, the number of days with a dangerous or extremely dangerous heat index is dramati- cally increased along the Mediterranean coast of all Arabic countries by the end of the century in comparison with the present baseline period. The peak changes may be up to 65 days per year (see map 2.15). Willett and Sherwood (2012) used a heat index based on the wet-bulb tempera- ture and found positive trends for the period 1973–2003 and an increase in future extreme heat events under the A1B scenario. Map 2.15 shows changes in the probability of another monthly heat index based on tem- perature, humidity, and physiology (Steadman 1979) in the Arab world under the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (compare figure 2.6, later in this chapter). The model indicates an increase in the heat index for 1990–2009 in Sudan and Somalia, and a further increase of about 10 percent (more in Sudan and Somalia) is modeled for midcen- tury, increasing to more than 40 percent toward the end of the century. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, there is also a large increase in the heat index in the Maghreb region. 72 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries MAP 2.15 Probability of Monthly Heat Index above 30°C b. Change, 1990–2009, compared a. Baseline, 1960–79 with baseline % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 c. Projected change, low-emission scenario, d. Projected change, low-emission scenario, 2040–59 2080–99 % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 e. Projected change, high-emission scenario, f. Projected change, high-emission scenario, 2040–59 2080–99 % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Source: Authors’ representation. Note: Panel a: heat index under 1960–1979 climatology. Panel b: changes in heat index for 1990–2009 with respect to the climatology (shown in panel a). Panel c: changes for 2040–59 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Panel d: changes for 2080–99 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Panel e: changes for 2040–59 for the RCP8.5 scenario. Panel f: changes for 2080–99 in the RCP8.5 scenario. The heat index is based on Steadman (1979). Sea Levels Will Continue to Rise Global Mean Sea Level Has Been Observed to Have Steadily Increased since 1870 The level of the sea at the shoreline is determined by many factors that operate over a great range of temporal scales: hours to days (tides and weather), years to millennia (climate), and longer. The land itself can rise and fall, so regional land movements must be accounted for when using tide gauge measurements for evaluating the effect of oceanic climate Ways Forward for Climatology 73 change on coastal sea levels. Coastal tide gauges indicate that the global average sea level rose during the 20th century. Since the early 1990s, sea level has also been continuously observed by satellites, with near-global coverage. Satellite and tide gauge data agree at a wide range of spatial scales and show that global average sea level has continued to rise during this period. Figure 2.5 illustrates the observed steady increase in global sea level since 1870 to the present. In total, the global increase has been approximately 18 centimeters. Sea-level changes show geographical vari- ation because of several factors, including the distributions of changes in ocean temperature, salinity, winds, and ocean circulation. The IPCC AR4 states that over the period 1961 to 2003, global ocean temperature has risen by 0.1°C from the surface to a depth of 700 meters. This temperature increase results in a thermal expansion of seawater that has contributed substantially to sea-level rise in recent decades. Over the period with data available, warming was greatest between 1993 and 2003 but was somewhat less afterward. The thermal expansion of the oceans, however, is not sufficient to explain the observed sea-level rise, which also occurs from cryospheric changes, including the increased melting of gla- ciers and ice caps, and the thawing and calving of Greenland’s inland ice. Recent expert meetings, such as at the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in March 2009, discussed whether the IPCC AR4 had under- estimated the amount of sea-level rise and that ocean warming could be about 50 percent greater than the IPCC had previously reported. Mate- rial presented at the conference suggested that the rate of sea-level rise increased during the period from 1993 to the present, mainly because of the growing contribution of ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica. Ob- servations show that the area of the Greenland ice sheet at the freezing point or above for at least one day during the summer period increased by 50 percent during the period 1979 to 2008, particularly during the extremely warm summer of 2007 (K. Steffen and R. Huff, University of Colorado at Boulder, personal communication, 2009; Mote 2007). Ice sheets may also lose mass through ice discharge, which is also sensi- tive to regional temperature. The best estimate is that the Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at a rate of 179 gigatons per year since 2003, corresponding to a contribution to global mean–level rise of 0.5 millime- ters per year (Dahl-Jensen et al. 2009). This is approximately twice the amount estimated by the IPCC in 2007. There Is a Risk That Global Mean Sea Level May Increase 1.5 Meters by 2100 Climate models are consistent with the ocean observations and indicate that thermal expansion is expected to continue to contribute significantly 74 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 2.5 Annual Averages of the Global Mean Sea Level a. Sea level, 1880–2000 Sea level (millimeters) Year b. Sea level, 1996–2008 60 60-day smoothing Annual smoothing 50 Mean sea level (millimeters) 40 30 20 10 0 –10 1996 2000 2004 2008 Year Source: IPCC 2007; Nerem et al. 2010. Note: Panel a: Reconstructed sea-level fields since 1870 (red), Tide gauge measurements since 1950 (blue), and Satellite al- timetry since 1992 (black). Panel b: Updated satellite estimates. Units are in millimeters relative to the average for 1961–90. Error bars are 90 percent confidence intervals. Ways Forward for Climatology 75 to sea-level rise over the next 100 years. New estimates suggest a sea-level rise of around one meter or more by 2100 (IOP Science 2009). Because deep ocean temperatures change slowly, thermal expansion will continue for many centuries even if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized today. In a warmer climate, models suggest that the ice sheets could accumu- late more snowfall, which would lower the sea level. However, in recent years, any such tendency has probably been outweighed by accelerated ice flow and greater discharge. The processes of accelerated ice flow are not yet completely understood, but they are likely to continue to result in overall net sea-level rise from the two large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. Recent studies (for example, Grinsted, Moore, and Jevrejeva 2010) have demonstrated that a committed future global sea-level rise independent of emission scenarios could be as high as 1.5 meters. The greatest climate- and weather-related impacts of sea level will be felt during extremes associated with tropical cyclones and midlatitude storms, on time scales of days and hours. Low atmospheric pressure and strong winds produce large local sea-level excursions called storm surges, which are especially serious when they coincide with high tide. Changes in the frequency of the occurrence of these extreme sea levels are affected by changes both in mean sea level and in the meteorological phenomena causing the extremes. A New Round of Improved Projections Is Coming To prepare for the upcoming IPCC report (AR5), a new, coordinated modeling effort is under way. The effort will be more focused on devel- oping consistent downscaled outputs for all terrestrial regions of the Earth and on improving the projection of changes in extreme events. The first results of this effort have already appeared and will continue to emerge within the next one to two years. The projections are expected to considerably improve scientists’ understanding of future climates. IPCC AR5 Will Bring a New Framework for Modeling Climate A new generation of climate models Since the IPCC AR4 was published, increasing efforts by the climate modeling community have continued to address outstanding scientific questions that arose as part of the assessment process; improve under- standing of the climate system; and provide estimates of future climate change. A new set of coordinated climate model experiments, known as phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) (Tay- 76 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries lor, Stouffer, and Meehl 2011), has become a high priority on the re- search agendas of most major climate modeling centers around the world. The results from this new set of simulations are expected to provide valu- able information and knowledge that is particularly relevant to the next international assessment of climate science, such as the IPCC AR5. Compared to the previous generation of models that contributed to the IPCC AR4, the climate models participating in CMIP5 have greatly improved through the adoption of new findings about parameterizations of subgrid-scale physical processes, inclusion or further development of aerosol schemes, carbon cycle models, variable vegetation cover, and more. In particular, a subset of the new models explicitly incorporates the global carbon cycle as one of the model components (subsequently re- ferred to as earth system models or ESMs). These coupled carbon-climate model simulations provide a way of diagnosing the role of carbon-climate feedback and quantifying the allowable emissions for a given climate change target. A new way of making climate change scenarios A set of new emission scenarios has been adopted in the CMIP5 frame- work (Moss et al. 2008, 2010). Unlike the SRES scenarios used during the past two decades, which explore only emission pathways in the absence of climate policy, the new scenarios are defined by the radiative forcing lev- els (that is, the climate signal) of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) that are compatible with socioeconomic development, including adaptation and mitigation (van Vuuren et al. 2010). Four RCPs are se- lected for CMIP5 experiments: one nonmitigated (RCP8.5) and three that take into account various levels of mitigation (RCP6.0, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6), with labels according to the approximate target radiative forc- ing in Wm−2 at about 2100 (figure 2.6). For comparison, the figure also shows three SRES emission scenarios. In comparison with the SRES, the RCPs provide more regionally detailed scenario information, such as aerosol emissions, geographically explicit descriptions of land use and re- lated emissions and uptakes, and detailed specifications of emissions by source type, which are needed by new advances in climate models. A new focus on near-term changes A new goal of the CMIP5 experiments is to provide decadal climate pre- dictions for the near term (out to about 2035). These experiments will be carried out with atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs) that are properly initialized for the ocean and perhaps also sea ice and land surface, using either observations or initialization methods that have been developed recently. Some of the decadal simulations are expected to be Ways Forward for Climatology 77 performed using higher resolution to better resolve regional climate and extremes. An enhanced resolution in such experiments may enable a global horizontal grid scale as high as 50 kilometers, which is equivalent to the scale of RCMs currently used in downscaling studies. These experi- ments will also be able to better separate natural climate fluctuations from those that are anthropogenic (see also Hawkins and Sutton 2009, 2010). More Effort Is Needed to Develop Good Impact Models to Translate Climate Change Projections to Potential Impacts Great uncertainty remains about the precise magnitude of changes in climate and weather patterns at any given location and time. Some of this uncertainty derives from the inherently chaotic nature of the weather and climate system and from limitations in the models, but much uncertainty is linked to the future of human actions that release greenhouse gases and change land cover. Despite these uncertainties, decisions still have to be made about water management, agricultural practices, land use, and in- frastructure, with the consequences of the decisions extending well into what climatologists know will be significantly changed climates. These decisions are often guided by impact models that, among many other fac- tors, take into account climate and climate variability (box 2.6). Impact models have typically been guided by climate observations from the re- FIGURE 2.6 Representative Concentration Pathways Compared with the Older SRES Scenarios 8.5 30 25 SRES A2 Gigatons of carbon per year 20 6.0 15 SRES A1B 10 SRES B1 5 4.5 0 2.6 –5 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 Historic Predicted Source: Based on Moss et al. 2010. Note: Energy and industry carbon dioxide emissions for the four RCP candidates for CMIP5 experiments. Three of the most commonly used Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) are shown for comparison. 78 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries cent past, such as 1961–90 weather data, but the past is no longer a good proxy for the future. The challenge is to find ways of representing both the understanding of future climate and the uncertainties in models of water use, decisions about land use, and infrastructure design. A number of steps are involved in deciding how to incorporate future climate change and variability into impact models. The first step is to as- sess how the impact model considers current climate variability. Many models, in particular many economic models, treat climate as a constant, and they factor climate variability into a general error term or safety fac- tor, as in bridge and building design. In such cases, the design of these decision processes will have to be reassessed to consider whether the safety margins can simply be extended, and if so, whether these margins will still lead to effective and efficient decisions. The challenge is to re- place inputs from the recent past with inputs from well-selected models of the future. However, many of these future models require data at a BOX 2.6 The Practice of Impact Modeling National and regional collaboration: Meteorological services should enhance regional collaboration on early warning systems. This goal includes the use and dissemination of existing extended forecasts, which are available through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and other international institutions. Col- laborative projects should exploit existing or new initiatives within international bodies of which Arab countries are members. Avail- able products for the analysis of climate change risks and for impact assessment should be used. The Global Framework for Climate Services, launched by WMO, depends crucially on the active par- ticipation of all member states. Capacities to contribute to these efforts and to explore the outcome are much needed in most of the Arab countries. International collaboration: International Centers of Excellence should be established, and existing ones, such as the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia, should be better promoted on a regional scale. This expanded access can be achieved through staff exchange and enhanced collaboration at a regional and international scale. Source: Authors’ compilation. Ways Forward for Climatology 79 much finer resolution than can be produced by GCMs, or even RCMs, and at time scales that are often not available from modeling runs, such as hourly or daily data. Improving Climate Model Output Resolution in Both Space and Time Scales Is a Challenge The horizontal resolution of GCMs is typically 100–200 kilometers, which is usually too coarse for direct use by impact models. Climate pro- jections with higher spatial resolution can be obtained by dynamical downscaling, using high-resolution RCMs driven by initial and boundary conditions provided by GCMs (for example, Rummukainen 2010). This improved resolution makes it possible to include subgrid variability, such as small-scale topography (see box 2.1), and to resolve subgrid processes to improve the modeling of regional rainfall, for example. Indeed, a num- ber of studies show that the results from impact models using downscaled climate information can be quite different from results directly based on GCM output (for example, Mearns et al. 2001; Olesen et al. 2007). Different GCMs and RCMs use different physical formulations to de- scribe atmospheric processes—that is, interactions between the atmo- sphere and the land and oceans—and thus provide different projections of future climate. The spread of results from these different models rep- resents an uncertainty regarding future climate that must be accounted for by impact modelers; therefore the use of a single GCM or RCM should be avoided. However, the uncertainties are now being explored by ensemble simulations that apply different combinations of GCMs and RCMs (see, for example, J. H. Christensen, Carter et al. 2007; Kjellström and Giorgi 2010). One way of directly including this uncertainty is to calculate the probability distribution of important outputs, such as daily maximum temperatures, on the basis of information from the full set of model simulations (Déqué and Somot 2010). In recent studies, the contribution of individual models to the proba- bility distribution has been weighted according to each model’s perfor- mance with respect to a given set of metrics (J. H. Christensen et al. 2010). The weighting procedure itself adds an extra source of uncertainty, and the method is still being explored. For example, the ability of a model to predict present-day climate could be seen as an indication that it will also be able to predict future climate. However, feedback mechanisms that were important in the past could be less important in a future climate with a different forcing, so the weightings themselves may not be appro- priate (J. H. Christensen et al. 2008; Reifen and Toumi 2009). In addi- tion, models may perform differently for different regions. The Coordi- nated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative 80 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries will study this function and offer new regional projections for a number of regions across the world. The initiative includes projections for the Arab region, although not as a single entity, but instead distributed across several proposed regional domains (Giorgi, Jones, and Asrar 2009). Most downscaling methods combine climate model output with ob- served data. In this way, local features not captured by the climate model can be incorporated in the scenario data, allowing the impact model to be used with data in the form they were developed and tailored for. The most appropriate method of preparing climate scenario data depends on the local region and on the specific needs of the impact models. Any dependence on time series data to calibrate and validate an impact model prevents the direct use of GCM or RCM data, because the climate models do not reproduce sequences of real weather events. The models are neither designed nor meant to be able to do that. Instead, a climate model, as the name suggests, is constructed with the aim of being able to reproduce climate, which, in a narrow sense, is usually defined as the average weather. More rigorously defined, climate is the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities, such as temperature or precipi- tation, over a period of time, ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. Many climate variables in the model output are systematically offset and need to be bias corrected, which requires observational data. Methods to transform climate model output into the impact application are therefore called for. The climate change scenarios can be further downscaled to a regional or local level by applying a weather generator (WG) approach. For example, a stochastic WG based on the series ap- proach (Racskó, Szeidl, and Semenov 1991) has been proven to give a re- alistic representation of the duration of periods of wet and dry days and, thus, the duration of droughts, whereas the frequently applied Markov chain models (Semenov et al. 1998) are less successful in achieving realistic representation. The WG approach has the benefit of allowing for a good representation of current climatic conditions by calibrating the WG to observed data and allowing not only the inclusion of changes in mean climate from the RCMs (or GCMs), but also changes in climatic variabil- ity. This approach also has the flexibility to generate longer and multiple time series of synthetic weather data for use in impact models, thus allow- ing for better quantifying of the variability in response to climate change. Even if suitable time series of weather data are generated to drive an impact model, the question remains as to what extent the impact model itself is calibrated and tested for weather conditions beyond those experi- enced in observed conditions. This information should be clarified when the model is used under climate change conditions, in particular when modelers are addressing values well outside past experiences or when ex- treme events are being assessed. Ways Forward for Climatology 81 A Seamless Approach from Weather Forecasting to Seasonal-to- Decadal Projection Is a New Concept of Climate Prediction As discussed earlier, a climate model is designed to be able to capture the statistical properties of the geographically and temporally varying weather that characterizes climate; it is not designed to predict the actual weather. A weather prediction or forecast, on the other hand, is typically formu- lated as a categorical statement about the state of the weather within a certain time frame, typically up to 10 or 15 days (medium-range fore- casts). More recently, monthly and seasonal time-scale forecasts are also provided by many centers. These forecasts typically provide qualitative assessments of the most likely weather development, primarily based on long-term variations, such as expectation of droughts or moist conditions. A commonality between all forecasts is the dependency on a well-defined initial state that must have its origin in an observed state of the atmo- spheric (or, more broadly, climate) system. This assessment typically in- volves some kind of data assimilation system by which the forecast model is constrained toward the observed evolution of the weather or oceanic state, moist or dry land surfaces, and so forth. The techniques to ade- quately combine modeled information, typically represented by a model grid box, with point measurements at which most observations are made, comprise large research fields of their own. In climate modeling, the model typically begins from an idealized ini- tial state, which aims to represent conditions “typical” for the period it is intended to represent, often preindustrial conditions in which the levels of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosol loads in the atmosphere were low. Then the known or estimated external forcings from the emis- sion of greenhouse gases and aerosols, varying solar insolation, volca- nism, and other drivers (for example, land use) are introduced into the freely running model. In this way, a modeled representation of the evolu- tion of the climate since the industrial revolution is made. But the state of the climate in such a model for a particular decade, say 2001–10, is not meant to be compared with the real world for that decade. The model is designed to capture the changing characteristics of major phenomena such as El Niño’s decadal fluctuations in monsoons or the North Atlantic Oscillation but not to forecast particular events. This aspect of modeling is a problem when the challenge is to address the near-future climate changes, because natural fluctuations on the decadal time scale are major determinants. In essence, the probable evo- lution of climate over the next three to four decades is more difficult to depict than the climate at the end of the century under a prescribed emis- sion scenario. This shortcoming is very often forgotten when impact as- sessments are called for. 82 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Some predictability in the atmosphere on seasonal, interannual, and decadal time scales can arise from internally generated natural climate variability—often connected to oceanic variability—and certain types of external forcing (solar and volcanic eruptions). Internal variability that results in, for example, extensive, long-lasting upper ocean temperature anomalies has the potential to provide seasonal, interannual, and even decadal predictability in the overlying atmosphere, both locally and re- motely through atmospheric “teleconnections.” These teleconnections can guide predictions for the next few seasons. The question of whether or not skill extends to forecasts for the following decade and beyond is a scientific hot topic and currently a central issue in the upcoming AR5. A pioneer work of Smith et al. (2007) has demonstrated that the forecasting skill for surface temperature is substantially improved up to a decade with the global climate model system DePreSys, which takes into account the observed state in the atmosphere and ocean and thus predicts both inter- nal variability and externally forced changes. Map 2.16 shows an example of the forecast of regional rainfall anomalies out to 2017 based on the DePreSys (Wilby 2007b). The model predicts strong reduction of rainfall over the lower Nile and Arabian Peninsula for the period of 2007–17. However, much more research is needed to understand whether the sig- nals are robust, and if so, the underlying physical mechanism. The level of predictability and apparent predictive skill arising from both internal and external forcing can vary markedly from place to place and from variable to variable. Recent research indicates that predictability is absent or very limited in some variables in most locations over the sur- face of the earth (see, for example, Hurrell et al. 2010; Latif et al. 2010; Meehl et al. 2009; Murphy et al. 2010). So climatologists cannot accu- rately predict all aspects of the climate over the coming decades even if they could perfectly resolve all the technical issues confronted when de- veloping and conducting predictions. The nature of the climate system precludes the possibility of reliable decadal predictions of some climate variables in some locations. In such cases, the best estimate that can be provided for the quantities and regions in question for future decades is the information contained in historical climate records. Nevertheless, there is some potential for seasonal prediction in the Arab world. As an example, there is a relationship between the phase of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, a measure of the phase of El Niño) in August–September and rainfall anomalies in Djibouti the following October–December. A negative SOI indicates El Niño episodes, wetter than normal conditions, and an increased probability for the outbreak of diarrhea and cholera, which are waterborne diseases (Rob L. Wilby, per- sonal communication with author, 2011). Operational regional seasonal forecasts are issued by several institutions, including the Greater Horn of Africa Consensus Climate Outlook,1 the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI),2 and the U.K. Met Office.3 Ways Forward for Climatology 83 MAP 2.16 Rainfall Anomalies for 2007–17 –20 –15 –10 –5 0 5 10 15 20 Percentage of the 1979–2001 mean Source: Wilby 2007b. Note: Predicted by the U.K. Met Office’s DePreSys, given information on surface ocean heat content up to June 2005. WMO has launched a new large-scale climate services initiative, the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), with the goal to “enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and ad- aptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incor- poration of science-based climate information and prediction into plan- ning, policy and practice” (WMO Secretariat 2009, 2). It will provide on-demand information such as regional weather and climate predictions to policy makers, businesses, and individual farmers and fishermen in par- ticularly vulnerable parts of the world. GFCS will act as a tool to proac- tively reduce disaster risk across all levels of society and to support disas- ter risk management and climate risk management practices. This initiative should be of particular interest in the Arab countries, as it can provide access to climate data and help in preparing for the expected impacts of climate change. The best choices for integrating climate modeling projections with impact modeling depend on location, time period, and application, and are best made through the cooperation of climate modeling and impact specialists. A discussion of the myriad options is not possible in this chap- ter, but annex 2B provides some guidelines for program leaders respon- sible for developing impact models. The guidelines will help with deci- sions that are likely to be affected by climate change, by stepping through the process of developing advice guided by the best available understand- ing of future climates. 84 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries ANNEX 2A Monthly and annual rainfall and temperatures in the Arab World Rainfall (millimeters) Economy January February March April May June July Mean Monthly and Mean Annual Rainfall and Interannual Rainfall Variability Algeria 10 9 9 8 7 3 2 Bahrain 22 14 13 7 0 0 0 Comoros 320 238 204 227 135 133 107 Djibouti 9 14 28 23 11 2 27 Egypt, Arab Rep. 5 4 4 2 4 2 3 Iraq 35 31 31 28 11 1 0 Jordan 24 23 17 8 3 0 0 Kuwait 22 14 17 16 5 0 1 Lebanon 160 130 88 49 15 3 0 Libya 9 6 5 3 2 1 0 Mauritania 1 1 0 1 1 7 21 Morocco 39 41 45 36 21 8 2 Oman 7 11 12 13 6 8 11 Qatar 7 20 17 7 2 1 2 Saudi Arabia 6 6 12 16 9 2 4 Somalia 3 4 11 54 54 16 15 Sudan 1 2 8 21 44 56 91 Syrian Arab Republic 55 47 41 32 14 2 0 Tunisia 34 29 29 23 16 8 3 United Arab Emirates 12 14 16 7 2 0 0 West Bank and Gaza 129 99 60 20 3 0 0 Yemen, Rep. 7 8 16 24 18 10 27 Temperature (°C) Economy January February March April May June July Mean Monthly Temperature Algeria 12.0 14.6 18.0 22.0 26.4 30.8 32.6 Bahrain 15.9 17.9 21.8 26.9 32.3 34.9 36.6 Comoros 26.0 25.9 26.2 25.9 25.0 23.5 22.8 Djibouti 23.5 24.4 26.0 27.7 29.4 31.6 32.4 Egypt, Arab Rep. 13.2 14.8 17.9 22.4 26.5 28.8 29.3 Iraq 9.0 11.1 15.0 20.7 26.5 30.8 33.3 Jordan 8.4 9.9 13.0 17.6 22.1 25.0 26.8 Kuwait 12.4 14.5 19.0 24.2 30.5 34.5 36.0 Lebanon 6.5 7.0 9.6 13.4 17.2 20.5 22.7 Libya 12.5 14.7 17.9 22.1 26.4 29.1 29.4 Mauritania 20.2 22.2 25.0 28.0 31.3 33.4 33.3 Morocco 9.4 10.8 13.1 15.3 18.8 22.7 26.0 Oman 19.9 20.7 23.3 26.6 29.4 29.9 28.5 Qatar 18.4 19.3 22.4 26.5 30.6 32.4 33.7 Saudi Arabia 15.4 17.1 20.4 24.5 28.9 31.5 32.0 Somalia 25.1 25.9 27.3 28.1 28.3 27.9 27.1 Sudan 22.1 23.7 26.4 28.9 30.2 30.1 28.9 Syrian Arab Republic 6.1 7.8 11.3 16.3 21.6 26.0 28.8 Tunisia 9.9 11.4 14.3 17.4 21.5 25.9 28.6 United Arab Emirates 17.1 18.3 21.6 26.2 31.2 33.9 35.0 West Bank and Gaza 10.8 11.6 13.7 17.3 21.0 23.5 25.4 Yemen, Rep. 18.4 19.3 20.9 23.6 26.0 27.9 27.0 Source: Authors’ compiliation. Note: CV = coefficient of variation Ways Forward for Climatology 85 Interannual Mean variability August September October November December annual (CV, %) 4 6 8 12 10 88 75 0 0 0 5 18 79 51 82 33 51 72 171 1770 18 54 25 7 11 8 219 50 3 1 3 3 5 37 56 0 0 7 23 30 197 23 0 0 3 11 19 110 36 1 0 2 16 22 114 31 0 3 31 85 140 702 25 1 2 5 6 9 48 50 41 26 5 1 1 105 49 4 14 29 43 48 331 33 9 3 5 5 8 97 50 2 1 1 2 9 70 47 4 1 2 7 7 76 25 10 13 43 31 16 269 35 109 66 35 8 2 442 43 0 2 16 34 50 292 26 6 21 31 32 33 262 34 0 0 0 4 13 69 53 0 0 14 60 113 498 29 28 12 6 9 9 175 28 August September October November December Mean Annual 31.9 28.7 23.5 17.5 13.0 22.6 36.1 33.3 28.7 23.0 18.0 27.1 23.1 23.9 25.1 26.0 26.1 25.0 31.7 30.2 27.6 25.4 23.8 27.8 29.4 27.5 24.6 19.3 14.7 22.4 33.1 29.5 23.9 16.3 10.5 21.7 27.1 25.0 21.1 15.1 10.1 18.4 35.8 32.7 27.1 20.0 14.1 25.1 23.3 21.4 18.1 12.8 8.0 15.0 29.2 27.4 23.5 18.2 13.8 22.0 32.2 31.2 29.4 25.0 20.6 27.7 26.1 22.6 18.2 13.7 10.3 17.3 27.4 27.3 26.1 23.7 21.4 25.3 33.5 31.6 28.2 24.0 20.3 26.8 32.1 30.2 25.8 20.9 16.8 24.6 27.1 27.7 26.8 25.8 25.1 26.9 28.4 28.5 28.0 25.2 22.6 26.9 28.7 25.3 20.0 13.0 7.7 17.7 28.7 25.7 20.8 15.3 11.3 19.2 34.7 32.5 28.9 24.1 19.3 26.9 25.9 24.5 21.9 17.1 12.6 18.8 26.8 26.1 23.1 20.4 19.2 23.2 86 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Annex 2C: Dealing with Climate Risks—A Checklist This checklist is designed to guide the leadership of a program or a large sectoral or cross-sectoral project that is assessed as being subject to cli- mate risks. Examples include the construction of a new dam, a major rural road upgrade, the design of an agricultural irrigation program, or a major coastal tourism development. The checklist is designed to assist in incor- porating climate risk, including climate change, in the program design. It is essentially a top-down approach to adaptation that unfortunately so often brings adaptation considerations rather late to the decision process (Wilby and Dessai 2010). This checklist is not the only—or necessarily the most effective—approach to adaptation planning.4 However, the cir- cumstances described here are common in development planning, espe- cially for infrastructure. The checklist emphasizes opportunities and the need to consult widely with stakeholders throughout the process. Note that the order of the checklist is such that entries are not meant to reflect a purely sequential process. Climate Risk Checklist for Policy Makers Process Comment 1. Assess where you stand in the decision process. a. If the decision process is in its early stages, then Clearly, this is the best stage to begin considering adaptation follow a process to identify the goals and needs actions. It allows the full range of viewpoints and climate- of stakeholders, the risks from current and future resilient options to be considered. This checklist cannot elabo- climates, and the range of feasible adaptation op- rate the open-ended and case-specific stakeholder engage- tions and criteria by which they may be evaluated. ment process in detail. b. Are the core features of the design in place? If so, Here the assumption is that adaptation to climate risk and cli- what information relating to future climate might mate change is a component of a wider development objective challenge these existing decisions? (that is, this is not a stand-alone adaptation project). c. What are the feasible options for modifying or These options need to be identified so that appropriate deci- fine-tuning the existing design? sions can be made about how much assessment of the climate risks is needed. At this point, simple “rules-of-thumb” about climate change may need to be applied (for example, using expert judgment to assess the effect of a warmer climate with more variable rainfall on the proposed project). d. What is the time horizon relevant to the decision The time horizon is not necessarily limited to the longevity of process? a piece of infrastructure. For example, implementing improved flood resistance of a planned road system may be sufficient for the normal design horizon for roads, but it could also lead to denser settlement in inherently flood-prone areas, leading to un- acceptable outcomes in the climates of the more distant future. e. Consider the application of decision scaling Decision scaling is a methodology that explores the climate (Brown 2011). sensitivities of a decision and then tailors the climate informa- tion that is gathered to focus on those sensitivities. This method can lead to quicker, more efficient, and more relevant input to the decision process. Ways Forward for Climatology 87 Process Comment 2. Gathering the basic climate information. a. What do the latest IPCC report and subsequent The IPCC reports will contain a summary of the current climate, commentaries and updates say about your project observed changes, climate change projections, and possible location and sectors? impacts on your region. They are available at http://www.ipcc.ch. b. Are more recent (since the most recent IPCC report) or more nationally or regionally explicit assessments available? i. Many countries have their own national as- Check national communications to the United Nations Frame- sessments of climate change and its impacts. work Convention on Climate Change at http://unfccc.int and search for “National Reports.” ii. Assess the knowledge base and the validity of Many national and subnational reports are summaries from the all assessments. IPCC with little additional information. iii. Identify major discrepancies (if any) between Discrepancies may arise because of newer information, the regional and explicit assessments of the more regionally specific information, and different sources of IPCC and seek to establish an explanation. information. Sometimes, however, they arise from errors and misinterpretations. 3. Establish a climate baseline. a. Seek cooperation and input from the national The climate baseline is a description of the current climate (of- meteorological office and similar authorities (for ten a 30-year period, such as 1961–90), including averages, vari- example, for sea-level monitoring). ability, and trends. It is used to establish the current conditions, and most modeled projections (see section 4) are interpreted as changes to this baseline. Baseline climate information may exist in a form that is not publicly available. For example, data may be held by other gov- ernment agencies, such as those responsible for agriculture or water management, or by the military. Many data may not exist in digitized form or, if data are digitized, basic quality control may still be lacking. b. Based on sections 1 and 2, decide on the variables These variables are not only temperature and rainfall. They are that may affect the outcome and design of the more likely to be complex variables, such as runoff, dry spells, project. rainfall intensity, and wind and dust storms. Some of these variables are available from GCM modeling, whereas others will have to be derived through secondary modeling. c. Explore the existing public databases for both sta- See references in chapter 2 for coverage of the Arab region (for tion and gridded data. example, information provided to produce maps 2.1, 2.2, and 2.3). See also box 2.3. d. Calculate averages, trends, and measures of vari- See the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, where ability for the variables of interest. much of this information is available (http://sdwebx.worldbank. org/climateportal/). e. Share the baseline data with appropriate experts These analyses may give insights to additional options in the (sectoral and climate), and review and revisit sec- project design. tion 1 if necessary. 4. Establish the relevant range of climate projections. a. Currently, 22 IPCC AR4 models form a core set and The IPCC Data Distribution Centre is located at http://www. are available from the website listed opposite. ipcc-data.org/. During 2012 and 2013, results from a major new modeling ef- fort will begin to become available. Consider how these results might affect or be taken into account in the decision-making process. (table continues next page) 88 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Climate Risk Checklist for Policy Makers Process Comment b. Assess whether particular scenarios should be The current trajectory suggests A1B is close to being surpassed. chosen (that is, A1B, A2, B1, B2). Note that for A common pairing is B1 (most effective mitigation) with A1B projections in the near term (next few decades), (least effective mitigation). the choice of scenario makes little difference. c. Do not reject any GCM unless data are missing or Some users seek a single “best” GCM for their region. This ap- an authoritative climatological reason indicates proach is unwise because the criteria for choosing the “best” GCM the data are inappropriate. are unclear. One GCM might project current rainfall better in your region, whereas another matches temperatures better. Also, the ability to project current climate does not necessarily indicate the ability to project future scenarios. d. Check the performance of each GCM selected for Poor performance of a GCM for your region in projecting major a broad match with the major observed meteo- patterns of seasonality, such as monsoon patterns or rainfall rological phenomena for your location, such as seasonality, is an a priori rationale for rejecting that GCM. But rainy seasons, timing of monsoons, and so forth. If cases may exist where all models appear to be disqualified. In major discrepancies are found, seek further techni- such cases, seek further technical assistance. cal help before using that model. e. Check climate change projections for each of A very different climate projection for a single model may the selected models to see if any appear to be indicate that the model should be disregarded. However, the outliers (that is, they produce results very different difference may also be due to internal variability, which simply from the other models or strong discontinuities indicates that the climate change signal for your region is not a between observed and near future projections). If robust feature in that model. major discrepancies are found, seek further techni- cal help before using the model. f. As a minimum requirement, explore a plausible Use of a bracketing set of GCMs is a common approach when range by using GCMs with a low, medium, or high running the impact modeling or assessment is time consuming global mean temperature or rainfall response to a or expensive. particular scenario. 5. Determine the climate projection data needed to drive An enormous range of approaches is available for evaluating the climate impact models and to assess impacts on the the impacts of climate change and variability, including well- decision making. established empirical damage formulas, watershed models, agricultural yield and production models, and so on. These “im- pact models” cannot be dealt with in detail here. Instead, some generic advice, applicable in most situations, is provided. a. If climate was treated as a constant (that is, an For example, if standard hazard models (such as 1-in-100-year assumption of stationarity) in the original design, flood levels) were used, can they be updated for the different then identify and focus on project performance climate scenarios? If the hazard models are difficult to update, criteria that might affect decision making and that what would be the effect of raising the safety threshold (for are also likely to be affected by different climate example, from 1 in 100 years to 1 in 200 years)? projections. b. If qualitative methods were used to assess the project options (expert judgment, Delphi tech- niques, and so forth), climate risks may or may not have been incorporated. Go to section 8. c. If quantitative impact models were used, which These variables are usually well prescribed in the documenta- climate variables were used as inputs? tion of quantitative impact models. i. Has the climate response of the impact model This basic test determines whether the selected impact model been sufficiently tested (validated) against is fit for its purpose. observational data? If not, what was the justifi- cation for the impact model’s selection? Ways Forward for Climatology 89 Process Comment ii. Does this validation still apply to a changed For example, would a changed climate go beyond the range climate? or domain of validation, especially for the impact of extreme events? Or might climate change introduce new phenomena not considered in the original model, such as salinization of cropland or even flooding in a location currently safe from flooding? iii. If not, you may proceed, but with cautious interpretation of the modeling results. Also, seek additional ways of validating the models under the changed conditions. iv. How sensitive are the final outcomes of the The sensitivity of the model to variation in the input param- impact models to the climate parameters? eters should be a part of model development and testing. It may be that the important outputs from the impact model are sensitive to only some of the climate inputs. This step will help to focus on best describing the important climate variables. For example, a crop growth model may not be sensitive to seasonal changes in mean rainfall but very sensitive to the timing of the first rains of the wet season. Are your climate models able to provide the information that matters? v. Do the models treat climate as a fixed (for ex- If the model treats climate as fixed, you will need to design a ample, use climatic means) or a stochastic (for series of model runs covering the range of climate projections example, use historical weather data) input? being considered. Usually, this means running the impact model under the current climate scenario and, for example, a +1ºC scenario, a +2ºC scenario, and so on. If the model uses stochastic weather patterns, you will need to consider how to generate realistic weather sequences for the future climate pro- jections (for example, via a “weather generator,” which generates random weather sequences within a prescribed bound of means, variability, and cross correlation between variables, such as temperature and rainfall). Do not use raw output from either GCMs or RCMs. These are models of climate and not of “weather.” Seek further advice if needed. Also see section 6. vi. Might the modeling results under a changed For example, the current planning may have implicit or explicit climate affect other components of the mod- assumptions about the availability of water for irrigation, eling or the decision-making process? constant trends in yields, or constant commodity prices. These assumptions may not be valid under a changed climate. If so, the impact modeling may need to be modified or extended to deal with these additional factors. d. Are the climate data gathered in section 4 suf- ficient to rerun the impact models under changed climate scenarios? i. If not, can the necessary data be provided The GCMs provide extremely detailed descriptions of the Earth’s from the raw data repositories of the model atmosphere and land surface for every few minutes of their run. runs? Most of these data are not saved, but far more data are saved than appear in most compendiums and may be available from the modeling groups that conducted the experiments. (table continues next page) 90 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Climate Risk Checklist for Policy Makers Process Comment ii. Can proxies for the missing data be found? Some aspects of climate change are known to scale more or Can the missing data be assumed constant, less linearly with global temperature. Assessing whether this or can the impact models be run with a set of may apply in a specific context requires technical assistance. estimates of the missing data that bracket the Some guidance is also available in IPCC reports (for example, expected range? chapter 11 in the contribution from WG-I to AR4). In some cases, you can exchange place for time. For example, if data for a particular application in a region does not exist, analogue current climates may be identified, and pseudo data from such a place may be used as a proxy. In any case, further technical advice should be sought. e. How important are other variables (such as This step is essentially a revisit of section 1 to ensure that you population trends, commodity prices, increasing are still on track. demand, and yield improvements) in determin- ing the outcomes of the modeling or in guiding the decision? In other words, what sort of climate change might cause you to change or revise the project design. Does a detailed treatment of climate matter in your decision process? f. If the answers to these questions suggest that climate change may affect the project design and that the impact models can incorporate climate change effectively, then proceed to run the impact models under a representative range of climate scenarios determined in section 4b. 6. Consider how to apply the changed climate to the impact model. a. Direct use of GCM, or even RCM, output is rarely Most GCMs have well-documented biases, such as a tendency applicable. to be clearly too wet or too dry in a particular region, to exhibit too weak an annual cycle for certain climate parameters, or to systematically underrepresent extreme values (such as heavy rainfall). Such biases must be corrected for before using the GCM output for driving impact models. b. The most common approach is to use changes in Future climate projections are calculated as the difference projection between a baseline period and some between the model results for the time period of interest (for future climate (often called deltas). example, 2030–60) and the model results for the baseline period (for example, 1961–90)—that is, the delta. This difference is added to the observed climate data for the same baseline period to estimate the future climate. c. If the decisions are sensitive to the impact model’s Delta change in its most simple form will preserve the higher- treatment of climate variability, seek expert advice order climate statistics of the current period (that is, its variabil- on the best downscaling methods. ity, extreme events, longer-term cycles). But climate variability and other factors may change in the future. 7. Reassessing qualitative treatments of the impacts of climate, climate variability, and climate change on the decision process. a. In most complex programs or projects, some ele- For example, the task may be a program for building schools ments of the design and decision process will be in remote areas. Detailed climate modeling should not be based on qualitative assessments. These elements necessary, but it would be useful to consider the environment should still be subject to scrutiny for climate in which these schools will operate over their lifespan (for ex- impacts. ample, higher temperatures, higher flood risk). Do such factors call for rethinking the building design or resiting? Ways Forward for Climatology 91 Process Comment b. Involve climate experts in expert judgment exercises. c. Ensure that stakeholders, civil society represen- tatives, and so forth are adequately briefed on climate risks and have the opportunity to apply this information to their inputs. d. Look at recent trends in extreme weather events The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters and disasters for an indication of things to come. database provides comprehensive disaster information (http:// www.cred.be/), and a review of other sources can be found in Tschoegl, Below, and Guhar-Sapir (2006). e. Apply sensible rules of thumb, such as the following: i. It will be a warmer world (the IPCC will give Most impact specialists will be able to make an assessment estimates for your location at future dates), as to the nature and extent of such changes in climate. They but some places will also experience more may advise that no changes in design are needed; be able to extreme cold events because of changes in recommend adjustments (such as, in the school example, set weather patterns. the building further back from rivers, upgrade the water supply, and so forth); or conclude that further analysis and possibly modeling are needed. ii. Rainfall will marginally increase in most regions Note that competition for water is increasing across all sectors. (but check the IPCC reports), but most places Climate change is likely to make that competition more intense will effectively be drier because of longer dry and make allocation decisions more difficult. spells, higher temperatures, and increased evaporation. iii. Rainfall probably will occur more erratically, with both extreme dry (drought) and extreme wet (flood) periods becoming more common. iv. Coastal regions will be subject to rising sea levels, but probably also to increased storm surges and wind damage, which are likely to be more important than direct sea-level changes in the near future. 8. Cross-check the results of the impact modeling by whatever means available. a. Do the results scale sensibly with different levels of For example, if you used GCMs representing low, medium, and climate change? high outcomes or scenarios representing low and high mitiga- tion effectiveness, do the results of the impact modeling follow these trends in the way expected. If not, can plausible explana- tions be found, and can these explanations be further tested? b. How do the results compare with previous studies? c. If a range of climate projections has been con- Here you need to consider whether the option chosen is robust sidered in the impact modeling, do any of the to the feasible range of climate outcomes. Consider whether projections lead to unacceptable or undesirable you should apply robust decision making to the whole decision outcomes? process (Lempert and Groves 2010; Lempert et al. 2004). d. Have you left out any factors that you thought For example, you may have good estimates of sea-level rise but might be important but did not have enough in- no reliable estimates of changes in the height and frequency formation to include? If so, document the reasons of storm surges and therefore omit such estimates. In terms of and warn users of the omission. Could you make flooding impact, the storm surges are possibly far more severe estimates that might bracket the scale or impact and will affect you much earlier than sea-level rise. of these omitted factors? (table continues next page) 92 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Climate Risk Checklist for Policy Makers Process Comment e. Have you overlooked some other factor that For example, studies of crop yields under climate change would “swamp” any climate signal? often predict decreases of 10 percent to 20 percent by 2050, although there is still great uncertainty about whether some of this loss will be compensated by “carbon dioxide fertilization.” But the overall impact model may have a built-in assumption that technological improvement will increase crop yields by 1 to 2 percent per year, as it has over past decades. If the latter estimate is wrong by only half a percent or so, and technologi- cal improvement is declining in many regions, this trend will swamp any climate change effects. Beware of “crackpot rigor”— that is, a very detailed analysis of the wrong problem. f. Are you prepared to recommend changes in plans on the basis of the results? g. Would you risk your own money, livelihood, or life on your advice? You might be! Source: Compiled by Ian Noble and Jens Christensen. Notes 1. Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), http://www.icpac.net. 2. See the IRI website at http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?space= CommunityPage&control=SetCommunity&CommunityID=580. 3. See the U.K. Met Office website at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/ specialist/seasonal. 4. See Hallegatte, Lecocq, and de Perthius (2011); Lempert and Groves (2010); Lempert et al. (2004); Wilby and Dessai (2010); Wilby et al. (2009); and World Bank (2009) for a wider discussion of adaptation in the context of wider development goals. 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Zhang, Xuebin, Enric Aguilar, Serhat Sensoy, Hamlet Melkonyan, Umayra Tagi- yeva, Nader Ahmed, Nato Kutaladze, Fatemeh Rahimzadeh, Afsaneh Taghi- pour, T. H. Hantosh, Pinhas Albert, Mohammed Semawi, Mohammad Karam Ali, Mansoor Halal Said Al-Shabibi, Zaid Al-Oulan, Taha Zatari, Imad Al Dean Khelet, Saleh Hamoud, Ramazan Sagir, Mesut Demircan, Mehmet Eken, Mustafa Adiguzel, Lisa Alexander, Thomas C. Peterson, and Trevor Wallis. 2005. “Trends in Middle East Climate Extreme Indices from 1950 to 2003.” Journal of Geophysical Research 110: D22104. doi:10.1029/2005JD006181. SPOTLIGHT 1: CLIMATE RESILIENCE Disaster Risk Management Increases Climate Resilience Climate Disasters Are Increasing in people in the Arab region, with a reported cost Frequency of US$11.5 billion, although this estimate is clearly low because the costs of damages are re- Worldwide, climate-related disasters are taking ported for only 17 percent of disasters and an increasing toll. From 1981 to 2010, climate rarely capture the suffering that follows loss of disasters killed 1.4 million people and affected lives and livelihoods.4 more than 5.5 billion people.1 As described in Both disaster risk management (DRM) and chapter 2, recent observations and modeling climate change adaptation (CCA) have a com- show that climate change is leading to greater mon goal of risk reduction, but DRM is con- intensity and frequency of many weather phe- cerned with ongoing hazards, whereas CCA is nomena, such as storms, floods,2 and droughts. principally concerned with emerging climate Climate change is likely to increase both rapid- change challenges (McGray, Hammill, and onset disasters (such as storms or floods) and Bradley 2007; UNISDR 2009). In terms of in- slow-onset disasters (such as drought and sea- stitutional structures and awareness, there is a level rise, leading to more coastal floods and disconnect between the DRM and CCA com- salinization).3 Climate change also has second- munities. Within most national and local gov- ary impacts resulting in disasters such as dust ernments, the two communities largely operate storms, landslides, rockslides caused by heavy in isolation. This isolation can be partly attrib- rain, and forest fires during droughts (UNISDR uted to thematic investments by donors and and LAS 2011). partly to existing in-house silos within govern- Within the Arab region, the interplay of ments (CCA usually falls under the mandate of natural hazards, together with the impacts of the ministry of environment, and DRM under climate change, water scarcity, and food inse- that of the ministry of interior, civil defense). curity, has emerged as a serious challenge for Nevertheless, policy makers are increasingly policy and planning for all states. Over the past recognizing the links between DRM and CAA 30 years, climate disasters affected 50 million through the reduction of hazard-specific vul- 100 Disaster Risk Management Increases Climate Resilience 101 nerabilities. Measures to reduce vulnerabilities number of flash floods, with more than 500,000 include capacity building, improved warning people affected in the 2000s compared with and forecasting methods, and land-use only 100,000 in the 1990s. The region’s high planning. rate of urbanization, particularly in coastal This section outlines the main climate- areas, often exacerbates the effects of the floods, related hazards, risks, and vulnerabilities in the droughts, and landslides. Global climate change Arab countries; the political commitment to is projected to result in a greater intensity in DRM (national and regional initiatives); and rainfall events, leading to increased intensity key gaps and constraints. It concludes with a set and frequency of both droughts and floods and of recommendations for better mainstreaming exposing up to 25 million urban dwellers to of DRM in national policies. floods (Abu Swaireh 2009; Solomon et al. 2007). These same climate changes could lead to a 30 to 50 percent drop in water availability, thereby The Hazard Risk Profile of the Arab exacerbating existing severe water scarcity States Is Changing (World Bank 2007). This problem could lead to increased internal and external migrations, Droughts and floods account for 98 percent of which would be compounded by sea-level rise. all people affected by climate-related disasters According to Erian, Katlan, and Babah (2010), (figure S1.1). There is no clear trend in either 28 percent of the residents of Arab countries their frequency or impact because the signal is already live in areas vulnerable to drought. dominated by occasional very large events. In many Arab countries, the bulk of the pop- However, the data show a steady increase in the ulation, physical assets, and government and FIGURE S1.1 The Impact of Climate-Related Disasters across the Arab Region 15 20 15 People affected (millions) Number of flash floods 10 10 5 5 0 0 1981–85 1986–90 1991–95 1996–2000 2001–05 2006–10 Droughts Floods Flash floods Storms/cyclones Number of flash floods (right axis) Source: Authors’ compilation, based on EM-DAT 2010. 102 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries administrative centers are located close to reduction (DRR) across sectors; develop ca- coasts, thereby exposing a large portion of the pacities to identify, assess, and monitor disaster population and major strategic and economic risks; build resilience through knowledge, ad- assets to the full range of hydrometeorological vocacy, research, and training; improve ac- hazards. The Global Assessment Report on Disas- countability for DRM at the subnational and ter Risk Reduction 2011 finds that although flood local levels; and integrate DRR into emergency mortality risk has decreased globally since response, preparedness, and recovery. To 2000, it is still increasing in Arab countries, in- achieve these goals, ASDRR aims at entrusting dicating that growing exposure continues to a ministry with strong political power with the outpace reductions in vulnerability (UNISDR DRM mandate—gradual decentralization ac- 2011). The percentage of gross domestic prod- cording to resources and capacities. Local ini- uct (GDP) exposed to floods has tripled in the tiatives will be prioritized on the basis of their four decades from 1970 to 2009 (UNISDR effectiveness in reducing risks to organizations 2011, 32). such as grassroots women’s organizations. Meanwhile, individual Arab economies are making progress on the Hyogo Framework for Arab States Are Responding to Action (HFA). The Arab Republic of Egypt, Mitigate Climate Threats Jordan, Morocco, the Syrian Arab Republic, and the Republic of Yemen are making ad- Although the region is affected by periodic vances in systematically reporting disaster earthquakes and droughts, DRM has not been a losses for 2010. Jordan, Syria, and the Republic priority for the region’s governments until re- of Yemen have recently published national di- cently (UNISDR 2011). At the regional level, saster inventories, and other countries are ex- the League of Arab States (LAS), the Council of pected to soon follow. Nine Arab economies Arab Ministers Responsible for the Environ- have completed their HFA progress reports for ment, the United Nations International Strat- 2011: Algeria, Bahrain, the Comoros, Egypt, egy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), the Re- Lebanon, Morocco, the West Bank and Gaza, gional Office for the Arab States, and the Arab Syria, and the Republic of Yemen. Overall Economic and Social Council have approved a progress on the five HFA priorities show con- number of recent DRM and CCA initiatives, sistent progress with HFA priority 1; relatively including the 2007 Arab Ministerial Declara- high progress with HFA priority 2; and some tion on Climate Change and the Arab Strategy progress with HFA priorities 3, 4, and 5 (LAS, for Disaster Risk Reduction (ASDRR) UNISDR, and ROAS 2011; see also box S1.1). (UNISDR 2010). LAS, in coordination with a number of Arab ASDRR is a 10-year strategy with the aim of regional and international partners, has pre- reducing disaster losses through identification pared a draft Arab action plan to address cli- of strategic priorities and enhancement of insti- mate change issues in the Arab region. The tutional and coordination mechanisms and cross-cutting program on DRM aims to follow monitoring arrangements at the regional, na- up HFA through the integration of DRR in all tional, and local levels. The key priorities of programs related to adaptation, build and ASDRR are to integrate DRM into national strengthen cooperation with UNISDR at the development planning and policies; strengthen national and regional levels, and identify mech- commitment for comprehensive disaster risk anisms and capacities to reduce disaster risk in Disaster Risk Management Increases Climate Resilience 103 BOX S1.1 Hyogo Priority Actions 1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institu- tional basis for implementation. 2. Identify, assess, and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. 3. Use knowledge, innovation, and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels. 4. Reduce the underlying risk factors. 5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels. Source: Authors’ compilation. the planning and implementation of adaptation • No consistent methodologies are used to programs. conduct risk assessments, leading to lack of comparability within sectors and countries with similar risks. Gaps and Constraints Exist in Arab • No resources are dedicated to implementing DRM Policies DRM and DRR actions at various adminis- trative levels. In many cases, emergency Although the Arab states are moving in the plans exist, but resources for preparedness right direction in the effort to integrate DRM are inadequate, particularly at local levels. in their national and regional policies, some specific gaps and constraints, observed in the • Comprehensive disaster data and informa- progress reviews of HFA implementation in tion systems lack accessibility. Although in- the Arab region for 2009 and 2011 (UNISDR formation on disaster events and loss exist in and LAS 2009, 2011), are noteworthy: many countries, there is a lack of adequate profiling of socioeconomic vulnerabilities • Coordination within the governments’ rel- and risks to populations. evant ministries and between different stakeholders at the national and local levels • There is an absence of national strategies to is weak, and institutional capacity to man- integrate DRR in school curricula and pub- age a cross-cutting sector such as DRM is lic awareness activities. low. This problem can be of particular im- • Links between DRM and CCA are unclear, portance when there is lack of coordination leading to division of resources (financial between institutions responsible for dis- and human) and duplicity. aster preparedness and those responsible for hazard monitoring and early warning to • Recovery and reconstruction projects are communities. stand-alone initiatives with time limits, re- 104 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries sulting in DRR being absent from rebuild- • Develop capacities at the national, local, and ing, regulation, and production and plan- community levels to identify, assess, and ning systems. monitor disaster risks through multihazard risk assessments. • Build resilience through knowledge, advo- Recommendations to Build cacy, research, and training by making infor- Resilience in the Arab Countries mation on risk accessible to all stakeholders. Educational materials and curricula, as well The recommendations in this section are based as public awareness and advocacy campaigns, on the trends of climatic hazards in the Arab should be used in this effort. region, the existing institutional capacity, the ongoing engagements in DRM and DRR, and • Develop regional, national, and local early the gaps identified in the previous section. The warning systems and networks and proper following recommendations, which may be dissemination mechanisms. used by policy makers at the national or inter- • Identify institutional and administrative national level, are derived from UNISDR and roles at all levels of government in the vari- LAS (2009, 2011): ous stages of a climatic impact—before, dur- • Strengthen commitment at the national ing, and after the event—for timely infor- level for comprehensive DRM and DRR mation exchange, better coordination, and across all sectors through adequate and ded- reduced overlapping of initiatives with icated financing toward risk reduction ac- stretched resources. tivities. Another avenue for sustainable DRR Box S1.2 provides an example of a successful is its inclusion in national development plans initiative. and legal frameworks. BOX S1.2 Drought Emergency in the Greater Horn of Africa: Early Response in Djibouti Djibouti is highly vulnerable to natural lives in areas of high risk, and 35 percent hazards, particularly extended dry multiyear of the economy is vulnerable to natural droughts that result in water scarcity for hazards. With less than 270 cubic meters of livestock, irrigation, and domestic uses. In freshwater per year per capita in 2009, the addition, Djibouti is affected by frequent country is classified as severely water poor flash floods. Data from recent natural haz- (according to the World Health Organi- ards suggest that such events have severely zation definition of less than 1,000 cubic affected Djibouti’s economic growth and meters). sustainable development. According to the Djibouti’s water crisis is exacerbated by World Bank (2005) hotspots study, approxi- rapid demographic growth and climate vari- mately 33 percent of Djibouti population ability. Djibouti averages only 130 millime- Disaster Risk Management Increases Climate Resilience 105 BOX S1.2 Continued ters of rainfall a year (expected to fall to 100 • Over the same period, the greatest dam- by the end of the decade), whereas rainfall age and losses were found in the agricul- in the driest region of Obock averages only ture livestock, water, and sanitation sec- 50 to 100 millimeters a year. Moreover, tors. Costs amounted to US$96 million. Djibouti has no permanent rivers, streams, • Agriculture production and livestock or freshwater lakes, and less than 5 percent losses attributable to the drought led of total rainfall replenishes the water table to severe food insecurity in rural areas. because of extreme evaporation. They caused a 20 percent loss of kilo- Together, the Djibouti government, calories consumed per household and a World Bank, United Nations Development 50 percent decrease in the consumption Programme, and European Union, with of goods and services (such as education, support from the Global Facility for Dis- health and medicine, and kerosene). aster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), performed a postdisaster needs assessment • With 80 percent less rainfall since 2007, a the aquifers, which are the only source of (PDNA) for the ongoing (2012) drought, which is in the fourth consecutive year of water for the capital, Ville de Djibouti, failed rainfall (in terms of quantity and suffered a reduction in recharge equiva- regularity). Despite limited data, the PDNA lent to four years of water supply, result- had the following findings: ing in an overall drawdown of the water table and severe increase of its salinity by • The drought has affected more than 40 percent. 120,000 malnourished and food inse- cure, already vulnerable, rural poor. • During the four years of drought, 100 (Because of poor data, this estimate is percent of the traditional wells and 80 per- very conservative.) cent of the community wells in Djibouti have been temporarily or permanently • Refugees entering Djibouti have out of order because of water shortage or increased considerably since May 2011, poor water quality. The result has been from 395 per month to 875 in August. increased salinity and other types of con- When interviewed, 50 percent of the taminations of the aquifers. refugees explained that the drought was • Drought social impacts include (a) their primary reason for migration. increased vulnerability of communities • The estimated economic losses from the caused by loss of their means of subsist- drought are 3.9 percent of GDP over the ence, (b) increased financial burden on period 2008–11. host families, and (c) deteriorating health and basic living conditions—especially • The identified need for drought and for pregnant women. other hazard mitigation interventions for the next five years is US$196 million • Djibouti meteorological data show that (about 4 percent of GDP). multiyear droughts have historically been (Box continues next page) 106 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX S1.2 Continued followed by floods, and given the drought ities have been identified, resulting in the of the previous years, 2012 could be mobilization of IDA Crisis Response Win- characterized by intense floods. Thus, dow funding in the amount of US$13.3 mil- integrated risk management is a priority. lion. The PDNA identified mitigation pri- orities are in line with the government’s • Most of the impacts derived from extreme seven-pillar mitigations priorities.b These weather events (drought and floods) priorities seek to maximize efficiency gains should be dealt with according to a rein- from existing World Bank operations and forced vision on land-use planning. Over- technical assistance, while promoting strat- exploitation of land, water, and other egies that support sustainable, economically natural resources must be prevented. strong livelihoods and potentially negate the • Given the likelihood of continued water need for routine emergency appeals. These deficit events, quick exploration, assess- funds greatly complement the ongoing ment, and implementation of the fea- World Bank disaster management efforts (financed by GFDRR), which aim to estab- sibility of sustainable water-harvesting lish a national risk assessment and commu- and desalination infrastructures are nication system to better inform decision recommended. makers and start building a national culture As a result of the initial assessment, a of disaster mitigation. number of priority drought mitigation activ- a. A PDNA is a government-led exercise that provides a coordinated and credible basis for recovery and reconstruction planning, fi- nancing plans, and strategies. By incorporating risk reduction measures, it provides systemic links to sustainable development, thereby serving as a platform for national and international actors to assist governments and populations affected by a disaster. b. The seven priorities are as follows: (a) strengthen price controls in the national market, (b) establish strategic foodstock and regula- tory mechanisms, (c) expand social and productive safety, (d) establish conditional cash transfers, (e) create a more sustainable and drought-resilient agriculture, (f) strengthen water management and retention, and (g) strengthen existing disaster risk management mechanisms. Source: Provided by Andrea Zanon. Notes 3. Although climate change may increase the fre- quency of an event, only rarely can a particular 1. Data are from EM-DAT, the International Di- event be ascribed to climate change. saster Database of the Centre for Research on the 4. Data are from EM-DAT. Epidemiology of Disasters at the Université Catholique de Louvain in Brussels. Data include droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, storms, References and wildfires. EM-DAT can be accessed at http:// www.emdat.be. Abu Swaireh, Luna. 2009. “Disaster Risk Reduction 2. In the context of this section, floods and flooding Global and Regional Context.” Presented at the include flash floods unless otherwise noted. Workshop on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Disaster Risk Management Increases Climate Resilience 107 Reduction in the Arab Region: Challenges and 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Future Actions, organized by the United Nations Basis—Contribution of Working Group I to the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental World Bank, Global Facility for Disaster Reduc- Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, U.K.: Cam- tion and Recovery, League of Arab States, and bridge University Press. Arab Academy for Science, Technology, and UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy Maritime Transport, Cairo, November, 21–23. for Disaster Reduction). 2009. Global Assessment EM-DAT. 2010. International Disaster Database. Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2009: Risk and Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Poverty in a Changing Climate. Geneva: UNISDR. Disasters. http://www.emdat.be/. ———. 2010. “The Arab Strategy for Disaster Risk Erian, Wadid, Bassem Katlan, and Ouldbdey Babah. Reduction 2020.” UNISDR, Geneva. http:// 2010. “Drought Vulnerability in the Arab Re- www.unisdr.org/files/17934_asdrrfinalenglish- gion: Special Case Study—Syria.” Background january2011.pdf. paper prepared for Global Assessment Report on ———. 2011. Global Assessment Report on Disaster Disaster Risk Reduction 2011: Revealing Risk, Rede- Risk Reduction 2011: Revealing Risk, Redefining De- fining Development, United Nations International velopment. Geneva: UNISDR. Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva. UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy LAS (League of Arab States), UNISDR (United Na- for Disaster Reduction) and LAS (League of Arab tions International Strategy for Disaster Reduc- States). 2009. “Progress in Reducing Disaster tion), and ROAS (Regional Office for the Arab Risk and Implementing Hyogo Framework for States). 2011. “Progress Review of the Imple- Action in the Arab Region.” UNISDR, Geneva. mentation of HFA in the Arab Region.” Pre- ———. 2011. “Progress Review of the Implementa- sented at the Third Global Platform for Disaster tion of Hyogo Framework for Action in the Arab Risk Reduction, Geneva, May 9. Region 2011.” UNISDR, Geneva. McGray, Heather, Anne Hammill, and Rob Bradley. World Bank. 2005. Natural Disaster Hotspots: A 2007. “Weathering the Storm: Options for Global Risk Analysis. Washington, DC: World Framing Adaptation and Development.” World Bank. Resources Institute, Washington, DC. http:// pdf.wri.org/weathering_the_storm.pdf. ———. 2007. Making the Most of Scarcity: Account- ability for Better Water Management Results in the Solomon, Susan, Dahe Qin, Martin Manning, Middle East and North Africa. Washington, DC: Zhenlin Chen, Melinda Marquis, Kristen B. World Bank. Averyt, Melinda Tignor, and Henry L. Miller. CHAPTER 3 Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity Water has always been a central issue in the Arab region. In fact, many anthropologists believe that human civilization first emerged in this part of the world as an adaptation to the region’s desiccation that started at the onset of the Holocene a few thousand years ago. Faced with long rainless summers and short rainy winters, early inhabitants sought to settle near perennial springs (for example, in Damascus and Jericho) where they could secure a steady supply of food and shelter by domesticating plants and animals—which heralded the agricultural revolution. As small settle- ments amalgamated into larger towns, new empires sought to regulate and secure access to water for their subjects. Across the region, remnants of water infrastructure are a testimony to human ingenuity and the capac- ity to adapt to harsh natural conditions characterized by severe droughts and marked seasonality. The bulk of the Arab region lies in the horse latitudes, a region char- acterized by its aridity as global climate circulations drive moisture to the low and high latitudes, causing the formation of the vast Sahara and Ara- bian Deserts. Before their desiccation several thousand years ago, these deserts received substantial precipitation that percolated into deep layers to form vast fossil aquifers. The region receives substantial runoff from neighboring areas. The Taurus and Zagros Mountains to the north and east are the main headwaters of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers. The Arab Republic of Egypt relies virtually exclusively on runoff from the Nile’s headwaters in the Ethiopian and Equatorial highlands several thousand kilometers to its south. Narrow strips of coastal plains in North Africa, the eastern Mediter- ranean, and the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula receive Photograph by Dorte Verner 109 110 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries MAP 3.1 Middle East and North Africa Aridity Zoning: Precipitation Divided by Reference Evapotranspiration IBRD 39627 MALTA SYRIAN S Y YRIAN ISLAMIC REP. MOROCCO TUNISIA ARAB OF IRAN LEBANON REP. IRAQ West Bank and Gaza JORDAN KUWAIT ALGERIA BAHRAIN QATAR LIBYA ARAB REP. OF EGYPT SAUDI UNITED ARABIA ARAB EMIRATES OMAN PRECIPITATION DIVIDED BY REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION: REP. OF YEMEN < 0.05 HYPER-ARID 0 500 Kilometers 0.05–0.1 ARID 0.1–0.2 ARID This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. 0.2–0.5 SEMI-ARID The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank 0.5–0.65 DRY-SUBHUMID Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. > 0.65 HUMID NOVEMBER 2012 Source: Bucknall 2007. significant runoff from mountain ranges that separate them from the in- terior deserts (see map 3.1). Deep in the Sahara and Arabian Deserts, several oases create microclimates where limited agriculture can be prac- ticed. High evapotranspiration rates greatly reduce the amount of water that turns into surface runoff or percolates through the soil to recharge the aquifers. For example, in Jordan, an estimated 90 percent or more of the rain evaporates, leaving a fraction to recharge aquifers and feed sur- face runoff (ESCWA 2005). Climate Change Will Have Diverse Impacts on Hydrometeorological Conditions Chapter 2 describes the use of global circulation models (GCMs) in mak- ing climate projections and applying them to the Arab region, but GCMs are suitable to assess only the general characteristics of potential changes; because of their coarse spatial resolution, GCMs are unable to capture Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 111 effectively many smaller-scale processes, such as cloud formation and the effect of sharp topographic variations. The performance of GCMs can be improved by downscaling their outputs to better represent local condi- tions (see chapter 2). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identifies the Mid- dle East and North Africa region as the region most severely affected by climate change, particularly because the effects will accentuate already- severe water scarcity (Parry et al. 2007). Most GCMs project that much of the Arab region will undergo significant reductions in precipitation levels and increases in temperatures that will increase evapotranspiration rates. The net effect will be a severe reduction in river runoff and soil moisture. Simulations using a middle path greenhouse gas emissions sce- nario (SRES A1B) (Bates et al. 2008) show that 80 percent of the GCMs agree on the direction of the change over the most densely inhabited northern part of the region, although the simulations agree less over the Arabian Peninsula (map 3.2; see also chapter 2). Climate change projections clearly show stark differences in the effects across the region. Although runoff in North Africa and the eastern Medi- terranean (including the headwaters of the Euphrates and Tigris) is ex- pected to drop by up to 50 percent, southern Saudi Arabia and East Africa (including the headwaters of the Nile) will experience increases in runoff by up to 50 percent. Consequently, climate change is projected to reduce water supplies in the northern and western parts of the Arab region and to increase those of Egypt and the southern part of the Arab world. A World Bank study assessed the impact of climate change on water resources in the Arab counties1 and identified options to manage these resources under future conditions of higher water demands (World Bank 2012). The study involved first assessing potential spatiotemporal distri- butions of surface and groundwater resources in the region over the next four decades based on output from nine GCMs for the A1B SRES sce- nario; the study then downscaled a 10-kilometer by 10-kilometer grid covering the Arab region and the headwater areas of the Tigris and Eu- phrates and Nile Rivers. A distributed hydrological model, PCR-GLOBWB, processed the downscaled GCM output and reference data to simulate runoff, ground- water, and soil moisture. Outputs from the hydrological model were then run through a water resources planning model, WEAP, to determine corresponding scenarios for municipal, industrial, and agricultural water demands. Marginal cost analysis was then used to assess the economic efficiency of alternative adaptation options, described in a later section. Results from this study show that the majority of Arab countries are already experiencing deficits in internal and external renewable water re- sources. By midcentury all Arab countries will face serious water deficits 112 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries MAP 3.2 Annual Mean Changes in Hydrometeorological Variables for the Period 2080–99 Relative to 1980–99 a. Precipitation b. Soil moisture (%) (%) –25 –20 –15 –10 –5 0 5 10 15 20 25 –25 –20 –15 –10 –5 0 5 10 15 20 25 c. Runoff d. Evaporation (%) (%) –50 –40 –30 –20 –10 0 10 20 30 40 50 –25 –20 –15 –10 –5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Source: Bates et al. 2008. Note: Based on simulation results from 15 GCMs for the greenhouse gas emissions scenario A1B. Stippled areas indicate those where at least 80 percent of the GCMs agree on the direction of change. as demand and supply continue to diverge. Total regional renewable wa- ter shortage will be about 200 cubic kilometers per year in 2040–50 based on the average climate change projection.2 The demand is expected to rise by about 25 percent in 2020–30 and up to 60 percent in 2040–50, whereas renewable supply will drop by more than 10 percent over the same period in the region. As a result, unmet demand for the entire Mid- dle East and North Africa region, expressed as a percentage of total de- mand, is expected to increase from 16 percent currently to 37 percent in 2020–30 and 51 percent in 2040–50 (figure 3.1). Water shortages for the individual countries will vary substantially (table 3.1 and figure 3.2). Many countries that are not currently facing any Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 113 FIGURE 3.1 Renewable Water Resources versus Total Water Demand through 2050 500 16% 37% 51% 400 300 Water, km3 200 100 0 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 Year Renewable water resources Total water demand % of demand unmet by renewable sources Source: World Bank 2012. shortages will be confronted with huge deficits in the near and distant future. The situation will be particularly troublesome for Jordan, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and the Republic of Yemen, which do not have the funds to procure additional expensive water supplies. Evans (2009) analyzed the impact of climate change on an area cover- ing the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Mashreq, the northern Arabian Pen- insula, and Turkey using simulation results from 18 GCMs under the SRES A2 emissions scenarios, an area that represents a high emission pathway. His analysis shows that most of the Arab region will become warmer and will undergo a significant reduction in precipitation. The 200-millimeter isohyet—a threshold for viable rainfed agriculture—will move northward as the climate warms. By midcentury, 8,500 square kilo- meters of rainfed agricultural land will be lost. By the end of the century, the 200-millimeter isohyet is projected to move northward by about 75 kilometers, resulting in the loss of 170,000 square kilometers of rainfed agricultural land over an area covering the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and the West Bank and Gaza. Evans also concluded that the dry season will grow longer by about two months, reducing the rangelands in Iraq and Syria and necessitating the reduction of herd sizes or increasing water requirements and imports of feed. 114 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE 3.1 Current and Projected Water Demand and Supply for Arab Countries (million cubic meters) 2000–09 Demand Supply r te al wa ur l ipa al ult nd tri e nic c us ric rfa ou al al Mu t t Ind Ag Region Country Name To Su To Gr Algeria 3,955 1,523 878 6,356 4,622 1,733 6,355 Libya 3,287 691 147 4,125 1,612 2,512 4,124 Maghreb Mauritania — — — — — — — Morocco 13,942 1,403 395 15,740 10,440 3,208 13,648 Tunisia 1,938 417 417 2,772 2,210 562 2,772 Egypt, Arab Rep. 45,371 6,003 4,462 55,836 47,470 5,509 52,979 Nile Valley Sudan — — — — — — — Iraq 34,084 4,942 4,942 43,968 29,591 7,105 36,696 Jordan 789 286 38 1,113 193 67 260 Mashreq Lebanon 677 376 149 1,202 830 231 1,061 Syrian Arab Republic 13,202 1,490 1,490 16,182 14,835 474 15,309 West Bank and Gaza 323 122 122 567 78 92 170 Bahrain 20 184 21 225 14 16 30 Kuwait 44 442 23 509 306 203 509 Oman 596 148 148 892 723 168 891 Gulf Qatar 144 173 173 490 137 118 255 Saudi Arabia 17,788 1,972 1,972 21,732 7,335 3,825 11,160 United Arab Emirates 2,691 610 68 3,369 169 164 333 Yemen, Rep. 5,137 341 341 5,819 3,858 699 4,557 Comoros — — — — — — — South Djibouti 9 18 1 28 28 — 28 Somalia — — — — — — — Source: World Bank 2012. Note: — = not available. For Djibouti, model outputs are not completely reliable because of poor-quality input data. The Arab Region Is Water Scarce To manage growing deficits in water, many countries have unsustain- ably tapped freshwater aquifers and seriously depleted strategic fossil water stocks. Water resource development in upstream countries has significantly reduced river runoff in downstream Arab countries. Rapid population growth, urbanization, and industrialization have contrib- uted to pollution of vital water resources, including strategic aquifers. The risk of flooding has also increased from the higher frequency and intensity of extreme events, poor urban planning, and inadequate pre- paredness. Water governance is a major concern for many countries Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 115 2020–30 2040–50 Demand Supply Demand Supply r r te te al al wa wa ur ur l l ipa ipa al al ult ult nd nd tri tri e e nic nic c c us us ric ric rfa rfa ou ou al al al al Mu Mu t t t t Ind Ind Ag Ag To Su To To Su To Gr Gr 4,621 2,944 1,221 8,786 4,939 3,711 8,650 5,059 5,814 1,463 12,336 4,786 3,431 8,217 3,597 1,163 214 4,974 1,448 2,062 3,510 3,917 1,799 265 5,981 1,091 1,184 2,275 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 16,115 2,691 551 19,357 7,581 2,347 9,928 18,173 5,386 665 24,224 6,678 1,855 8,533 2,304 841 841 3,986 1,845 2,054 3,899 2,648 1,634 1,634 5,916 1,829 1,125 2,954 53,478 10,284 6,646 70,408 41,573 5,485 47,058 61,712 17,525 8,443 87,680 48,703 5,640 54,343 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 40,521 8,304 8,304 57,129 25,471 4,175 29,646 47,901 11,606 11,606 71,113 23,802 3,561 27,363 871 600 56 1,527 146 19 165 975 1,233 68 2,276 158 17 175 781 557 187 1,525 907 122 1,029 893 776 200 1,869 859 108 967 14,358 2,544 2,544 19,446 13,061 1,605 14,666 15,973 4,222 4,222 24,417 12,438 2,237 14,675 370 291 291 952 86 10 96 413 587 587 1,587 87 9 96 19 271 30 320 8 1 9 17 337 36 390 4 1 5 42 789 36 867 282 254 536 38 1,133 44 1,215 224 177 401 571 487 487 1,545 639 209 848 521 1,143 1,143 2,807 498 56 554 139 231 231 601 120 50 170 127 257 257 641 105 43 148 16,450 5,108 5,108 26,666 5,974 2,065 8,039 15,062 10,098 10,098 35,258 4,797 1,314 6,111 2,517 886 91 3,494 166 69 235 2,279 1,014 96 3,389 122 47 169 5,623 1,270 1,270 8,163 3,700 751 4,451 6,081 6,492 6,492 19,065 3,784 612 4,396 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 11 34 1 46 45 — 45 11 72 1 84 62 — 82 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — because of a lack of accountability and weak institutional capacity. The scale and nature of these challenges and how they will be influenced by climate change vary considerably across the region, but they clearly point to the need for action. Climate adaptation is closely linked to a general need for good management of resources for a growing popula- tion under conditions of high water variability. Water Resources Are Scarce, Highly Variable, and Unevenly Distributed Water resources management aims to secure supplies to meet demands by matching supply to demand, not only in quantity and quality but also in location and timing. Water demand in the Arab region is already sur- 116 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 3.2 Current and Projected Water Demand and Supply for Selected Arab Countries a. Algeria b. Libya c. Morocco 14,000 7,000 30,000 12,000 6,000 25,000 10,000 Cubic meters, millions 5,000 Cubic meters, millions Cubic meters, millions 20,000 8,000 4,000 15,000 6,000 3,000 10,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 5,000 0 0 0 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 d. Tunisia e. Arab Republic of Egypt f. Iraq 7,000 100,000 80,000 6,000 90,000 70,000 80,000 5,000 60,000 Cubic meters, millions Cubic meters, millions Cubic meters, millions 70,000 60,000 50,000 4,000 50,000 40,000 3,000 40,000 30,000 2,000 30,000 20,000 20,000 1,000 10,000 10,000 0 0 0 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 g. Jordan h. Lebanon i. Syrian Arab Republic 3,000 2,000 30,000 1,800 2,500 25,000 1,600 Cubic meters, millions Cubic meters, millions Cubic meters, millions 2,000 1,400 20,000 1,200 1,500 1,000 15,000 800 1,000 10,000 600 500 400 5,000 200 0 0 0 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 Demand Supply Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 117 j. West Bank and Gaza k. Bahrain l. Kuwait 2,000 450 1,400 1,800 400 1,200 1,600 350 Cubic meters, millions 1,000 Cubic meters, millions Cubic meters, millions 1,400 300 1,200 800 250 1,000 200 600 800 600 150 400 400 100 50 200 200 0 0 0 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 m. Oman n. Qatar o. Saudi Araba 3,000 800 40,000 700 35,000 2,500 600 30,000 Cubic meters, millions Cubic meters, millions Cubic meters, millions 2,000 500 25,000 1,500 400 20,000 300 15,000 1,000 200 10,000 500 100 5,000 0 0 0 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 p. United Arab Emirates q. Republic of Yemen r. Djibouti 4,500 20,000 90 4,000 17,500 80 3,500 15,000 70 Cubic meters, millions Cubic meters, millions Cubic meters, millions 3,000 60 12,500 2,500 50 10,000 2,000 40 1,500 7,500 30 1,000 5,000 20 500 2,500 10 0 0 0 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 2000–09 2020–30 2040–50 Demand Supply Source: World Bank 2012. 118 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 3.3 Variability and Level of Precipitation in Arab Countries versus Other Countries Worldwide Qatar Bahrain United Arab Emirates Low precipitation, High precipitation, high variability high variability Kuwait Jordan Djibouti Normalized variability index Morocco Lebanon Saudi Arabia Syrian Arab Republic Libya Iraq Tunisia Iran, Islamic Rep. Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. Low precipitation, High precipitation, low variability low variability Normalized avarage precipitation Source: Bucknall 2007. passing supply and rising rapidly. Demand is generally concentrated in large urban areas, but irrigation for agriculture increases demand during the drier seasons. In most areas, water resources are scarce, highly vari- able, unevenly distributed, and seasonally out of sync with demand. The Arab region is characterized by uneven topographical and cli- matic conditions; the bulk of the region is very arid, but arid areas are flanked by more humid mountainous and coastal plains. Precipitation levels are low and highly variable in time and location. Globally, Arab countries have the least favorable combination of the lowest levels of pre- cipitation and the highest level of variability (figure 3.3). The ramifications of these conditions vary across the region. In coun- tries where water resources are derived from relatively higher levels of precipitation—mostly in North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean— water supplies are sizable yet highly variable and susceptible to frequent droughts. Although precipitation levels in these countries were histori- cally adequate to support demand, they are facing serious challenges in Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 119 FIGURE 3.4 Yearly Inflows to Lake Qaraoun, Lebanon, 1962–2004 1000 800 Yearly volume (MCM) 600 400 200 0 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 Source: Assaf and Saadeh 2008. meeting current demand given their high variability. For example, yearly inflows to Qaraoun Lake from the Litani River—the most significant water resource in Lebanon—is extremely variable, with maximum flow more than an order of magnitude higher than minimum flow (figure 3.4). The large fluctuations in runoff across North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean are strongly linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) global teleconnection pattern. A stronger NAO anomaly shifts the moisture-bearing westerly winds northward, depriving the region of a substantial amount of rainfall. The devastating droughts of the mid- 1980s to 1990s in the region were attributed to this phenomenon. During that period, dams in Morocco did not fill beyond half their maximum capacity (Bucknall 2007). Water resources in the riparian countries of Egypt, Iraq, and Syria are mainly derived from very large catchments in the more humid regions to the south and north of the Arab region that are characterized by higher and more consistent precipitation. For example, Turkey, location of the main headwaters of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers, has much higher precipitation and less variability than neighboring Arab countries (figure 3.3). In the Nile River basin, the Nile is fed by the monsoon-dominated Ethiopian highlands and equatorial Lake Victoria. The discharge from the Ethiopian highlands peaks at a different period—from July to Sep- tember—than runoff from Lake Victoria, which has two peak periods: a long one from March to May and a less intense one from October to December (Conway 2005). These staggered seasons have largely stabi- 120 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries lized runoff patterns in the region. Before the construction of the Aswan High Dam, however, Egypt was exposed to several devastating floods and droughts. The dam has drastically reduced multiyear fluctuations; how- ever, it was drawn down to alarmingly low levels as a record-breaking, severe drought extended from 1978 to 1987. The drought was mainly attributed to a drastic reduction in precipitation over the Ethiopian high- lands associated with an El Niño event (Conway 2005). Seasonal and multiyear variability have been managed on the Euphra- tes, Nile, and Tigris Rivers through extensive development of storage and conveyance infrastructure. However, more pressing issues are related to sharing water resources and management of multidecadal droughts. Cli- mate change is projected to have different, and almost opposite, impacts on the Nile and Euphrates-Tigris basins. The former is mainly influ- enced by the monsoon system, which will gain strength in a warmer world. Precipitation over the latter is highly influenced by the NAO, which will lead to drier conditions as a result of climate change (Cullen and deMenocal 2000). In the already extremely arid regions in the Gulf countries and Libya, precipitation levels are very low and extremely variable. Extreme water scarcity in these regions has, until modern times, suppressed growth in population and limited human activities to pastoralism and subsistence agriculture in oases and coastal regions with access to springs. But the discovery of oil resulted in a dramatic increase in population and living standards, increasing demand for water beyond the capacity of renewable resources. This sharp water imbalance is filled through desalination in most countries and through excessive reliance on fossil water, such as Libya and Saudi Arabia. Although climate change is not expected to sig- nificantly alter water balance in these countries, it is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall outbursts that may result in extensive damage and loss of life similar to those experienced recently in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia (Assaf 2010). The southern part of the Arabian Peninsula is more humid than the northern and central regions. In the Republic of Yemen, relatively more abundant natural water supplies on the order of 2.1 cubic kilometers per year (table 3.1) have, however, been outstripped by a relatively large and rapidly growing population—24 million people in 2010 (see chapter 1). In comparison, the Republic of Yemen’s eastern neighbor Oman, with 1.4 cubic kilometers per year of renewable water resources, has a more favorable water balance, given its much smaller population of only 2.8 million. Being in the domain of the monsoon system, the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula is expected to receive more precipitation— albeit in the form of extreme events, such as those that hit Oman re- cently—as global climate continues to warm. Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 121 The human suffering, hunger, and potential famine that may result from extreme drought conditions will be felt mostly in the least developed Arab countries (the Comoros, Djibouti, Mauritania, Somalia, Sudan, and the Republic of Yemen), where most of the economically active popula- tion are engaged in agriculture (see chapter 1). Many are dependent on pastoralism and subsistence rainfed farming, making them highly vulner- able to rainfall variability. The recent and ongoing drought in eastern Africa has taken a large toll on rural populations that incurred heavy in- come losses and are suffering from chronic hunger that could develop into wide-scale famine. Droughts have also had heavy impacts on other Arab countries, par- ticularly Algeria and Syria, where rainfed agriculture is prevalent. In Syria, the wheat-producing northeast was ravaged in 2006 by a four- year drought that dried up the Khabur River (Erian, Katlan, and Babah 2010). Although farmers initially adapted by tapping shallow aquifers, the continuation of the drought has led them to draw down ground- water levels significantly. Hundreds of thousands of farmers abandoned their villages to look for livelihoods in cities and in neighboring Arab countries. As climate continues to change, precipitation—and consequently droughts and floods—is expected to change in frequency, intensity, and distribution. This shift will challenge the hypothesis of stationarity of statistical means, which water planners and managers have traditionally applied to the design and operation of water resource systems. A shift in hydrological conditions in North Africa has left many water projects with overdesigned infrastructure (Bucknall 2007). A recent policy document has identified hydrological nonstationarity as a great challenge to water resource planners in the United States (Brekke et al. 2009). Population Growth and Urbanization Will Add Pressures to Water Resources Among the pressing challenges to water resources in the Arab region is the rapid growth in population and improvement in living standards. Al- though population growth rates have subsided over the past two decades (Dyer 2008), population is still expanding at some of the highest global rates in some countries—particularly the least developed ones—driving renewable water resources per capita in most Arab countries well below the absolute water-scarcity level of 500 cubic meters per capita (see table 3.1). This situation has been compounded by high domestic per capita water consumption, which in some Arab countries dwarfed rates in the developed world. Rising living standards are expected to further drive this trend (figure 3.5). 122 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 3.5 Estimated Increase in Domestic Per Capita Consumption in Selected Arab Countries 700 1.8% 642 667 600 620 585 600 Cubic meters per capita 500 400 0.9% 390 396 404 412 380 300 245 1.3% 214 228 190 200 172 0.7% 200 157 164 145 150 0.4% 100 125 136 150 105 115 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 United Arab Emirates Egypt, Arab Rep. Saudi Arabia Yemen, Rep. Iraq Compound annual growth rate Source: Chatila 2010. A major concern in water management around the region is rapid ur- ban sprawl, particularly in areas away from water-supply sources (Brauch 2003). This growth is a consequence of an ongoing urbanization process as people from rural areas continue to abandon farming in search of a better life in cities, in part because of the difficulty of maintaining viable agriculture as water resources become scarcer. The decline in water re- sources projected under climate change is expected to accelerate this pro- cess, particularly since adaptation measures will probably lead to a further reduction in agricultural activities. The challenge presented by this ongoing redistribution of population is to secure water supplies and to provide water services. In coastal cities in Lebanon, for example—particularly in the capital Beirut where half the population lives—water shortages are frequent because local supplies are incapable of meeting rising demand. Lacking access to adequate water services, people often illegally tap shallow aquifers, resulting in serious seawater intrusion. In an attempt to reduce pressure on heavily populated Cairo, the government has encouraged urban development in desert ar- eas, which has presented serious challenges in procuring water supplies over large distances. In Jordan, the population is increasingly concen- trated in the highlands, several hundred meters above most prospective water resources. Urban sprawl in several Arab cities has brought increasing numbers of people and economic assets into harm’s way from incidents of extreme flooding that have increased in frequency and intensity. Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 123 Already-High Agricultural Water Requirements Will Increase Further High evapotranspiration and soil infiltration rates in the arid Arab region reduce soil moisture—green water—and consequently increase irrigation requirements that typically surpass 80 percent of total water withdrawals in most Arab countries (chapter 2). With climate change, the predicted increases in evapotranspiration rates will lead to higher irrigation re- quirements.3 For pastoralism, which currently does not normally use ir- rigated sources of fodder, the lengthening of dry periods will reduce avail- able rangeland and consequently increase the need for irrigated fodder to maintain the same level of livestock (Evans 2009). In the long term, difficult questions will be raised regarding the alloca- tion of water to agriculture, particularly in areas of marginal returns, with likely increased competition from high-value uses in the industrial and urban sectors. Any solutions to managing water will require the inclusion of agriculture within an integrated national socioeconomic development strategy that involves all sectors. This approach will be particularly im- portant given that the agriculture sector is the largest employer in many Arab countries and contributes significantly, yet decreasingly, to meeting food requirements (see chapter 4 for more details). One way of looking at trade-offs between social security and food security considerations and water use for agriculture is to consider the economic returns of water used for irrigation for different crops, which differ significantly among Arab countries (figure 3.6). Countries can optimize their return on water by FIGURE 3.6 Agricultural Value Added GDP per Cubic Kilometer of Water Used in Agriculture Lebanon Algeria Tunisia MENA average Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Morocco Egypt, Arab Rep. Jordan Yemen, Rep. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 US$ millions per cubic km of water Source: Bucknall 2007. 124 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 3.7 Water Productivity in Irrigated Crop Fields Morocco (wheat) Tunisia (wheat) Egypt, Arab Rep. (corn) Syrian Arab Republic (wheat) Egypt, Arab Rep. (wheat) 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Kilograms produced per cubic meter of water Source: Renault 2002. choosing different crop mixes, which will lead to different returns on the agricultural water used. Although vegetables have a high economic return per cubic meter of water, the return of cereals is significantly lower. The cost of producing crops will continue to rise in many Arab countries, as fossil groundwater resources are depleted and groundwater levels sink. Wells now require deep drilling, and the cost per cubic meter is increasing. The environmental and social conditions of a given country, as well as water availability (from irrigation and rainfed agriculture), will determine the most viable crop mix. Returns on water for specific crops can differ among countries, as illustrated by wheat and corn for selected Arab coun- tries (figure 3.7). Strategic Groundwater Reserves Are Being Depleted at an Alarming Rate In an attempt to meet rising demand for water, many Arab countries re- sorted to mining their groundwater reserves. Over several decades, roughly from the 1960s to the 1990s, these measures have drawn down levels in many aquifers by tens of meters rendering them economically unusable; in several cases, aquifers were irreversibly damaged by salina- tion from rising underlying saline waters or by seawater intrusion in coastal areas. This period also witnessed attempts by several Arab coun- tries to achieve food sufficiency at the expense of depleting vast nonre- newable fossil aquifers. In Saudi Arabia, an estimated 50 percent or more of fossil water was used to produce wheat that could have been bought in Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 125 the global market at much lower costs. The opportunity cost of these lost water resources is enormous; Riyadh, the country’s capital and largest city, is mostly supplied with desalinated water from the Gulf coast that is pumped over 450 kilometers at a cost of about US$1.50 per cubic meter (Allan 2007). Some socioeconomic development policies have been detrimental to strategic aquifers. For example, the policies to settle nomads in the north- ern Badia region of Jordan gave unlimited access to underlying renewable aquifers, which get recharged from winter precipitation. Over two de- cades, water tables declined by several meters and water became too saline for use in agriculture. Poor groundwater licensing, water pricing, and en- ergy subsidies encouraged farmers to mine aquifers unsustainably. The net effect of those policies was that farmers did not take into account the social opportunity cost of water and used high-quality water to grow low-value crops, whereas domestic users nearby in Amman were willing to pay very high prices for water (Chebaane et al. 2004). Although the opportunity cost of water stored in aquifers is relatively well understood, a less obvious and equally important value is the opportunity cost of storage, which is exemplified in the current estimate of the cost required to develop a stra- tegic reserve in the United Arab Emirates for desalinated water. Along the Gulf, water storage is very low, ranging from a one- to five-day supply at best (Dawoud 2009). Low storage volumes place these countries at the mercy of interruptions in desalination even for very short periods. A Heavy Dependence on Shared Water Resources Makes Countries More Vulnerable A widely recognized fact is that water resources should ideally be man- aged at the watershed level. Integrated watershed or aquifer management facilitates optimal and balanced allocation of water resources among a watershed’s inhabitants and ecosystems. However, such an approach faces major obstacles if these natural basins are shared among different countries, or even among different administrative divisions within the same country. First, national socioeconomic development objectives could conflict with those of integrated watershed and aquifer manage- ment, since countries seek to use natural resources within their national boundaries for the benefit of their citizens. This approach may include not only using water resources within a watershed or aquifer but also transferring that water to other parts of the country. Second, technologi- cal advances have made it possible to develop large water storage and conveyance infrastructure and to use deep aquifers that were inaccessible in the past. Third, the high variability and uneven distribution of water make its value—and the potential for conflict—vary over time and space. 126 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries In the aftermath of World War I, newly formed political boundaries crossed natural water basins and aquifers. Following independence, Arab countries sought to develop their water resources to expand their agricul- ture and meet rising domestic and industrial demands. This endeavor has brought several countries into competition—and potential conflict—with one another over shared water resources. The significance of these issues to water resources management varies across the region and depends on the level of dependence on shared water resources, the upstream or downstream position of the country, its economic and military stature, and the political relationships among sharing countries. Turkey has the most favorable position in the Euphrates-Tigris basin as an upstream country; despite repeated protests from downstream Syria and Iraq, Turkey was able to dam the Euphrates basin extensively and to pursue development in the Tigris basin that jeopardized runoffs to Syria and Iraq. Tension also arose between Syria and Iraq over filling a major reservoir in Syria. A less conspicuous tension is broiling over the Islamic Republic of Iran’s recent diversion of major tributaries to the Tigris, which has significantly reduced runoff to the marshes in southern Iraq. Egypt has maintained dominance over the Nile basin. Despite being at the extreme downstream end of the watershed, Egypt’s policies influence water resource development in upstream countries. Egypt has been part of the Nile Basin Initiative to facilitate collaboration in managing the Nile basin. A new agreement, the Cooperative Framework Agreement, which was recently signed by most riparian countries, calls for replacing the ini- tiative with a basin commission that manages water resources in the Nile basin on “behalf of all the Nile Basin states” (Stephan 2010). Egypt and Sudan are concerned that the Cooperative Framework Agreement would effectively reduce their current water allocations, and they are currently not part of the agreement. Deaths and Damage from Extreme Flooding Are Expected to Rise Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of flooding. A flooding disaster is a construct of the physical flooding of a massive and fast-moving body of water and an affected area that contains people, infrastructure, and other vital economic assets (Assaf 2011). An intense rainfall in an open desert is hardly an issue, whereas a much less intense rainfall in a crowded, highly built, and poorly drained area is of great concern since it may lead to torrents that sweep people away to their deaths. The 2009 flooding in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, which killed over 150 people and caused great economic losses, was initiated by an intense rain- Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 127 fall that dumped 90 millimeters of rain in four hours over an area that normally receives 45 millimeters per year. Although the storm was un- precedented, the resultant torrents would have been reduced significantly had the area been equipped with an adequate drainage system. More sig- nificantly, the death and damage could have been reduced, or even elimi- nated, had development been avoided in the natural drainage area, known as a wadi. Many of the victims were migrant workers who lived in slums in the wadi area. The area also contains a major highway junction, causing considerable damage to cars and the deaths of some of their occupants. To make matters worse, the police and civil defense units were poorly prepared to handle large-scale disasters (Assaf 2010). Water Quality Is Deteriorating Deteriorating water quality is making a significant quantity of water un- usable, even for applications that require substandard water quality. For example, domestic sewage, industrial waste, and agricultural return flows from Cairo are sent mostly untreated through the 70-kilometer Bahr El Baqar channel to discharge into the 1,000-square-kilometer Lake Manzala in the northeastern Nile Delta. The discharge from Bahr El Baqar is heavily loaded with a wide range of contaminants, including bacteria, heavy metals, and toxic organics. Local fisheries have suffered signifi- cantly because of the widespread public aversion to consuming the lake’s fish, which in the past represented a third of the total fish harvest in Egypt (USAID 1997). The Upper Litani basin in Lebanon provides another stark example of how years of poor wastewater management has turned the river, mostly fed by freshwater springs, into a sewage channel during most of the year (Assaf and Saadeh 2008). The situation is also com- pounded by the uncontrolled use of fertilizers, which has increased con- tamination of underlying aquifers (Assaf 2009). Climate change would exacerbate these problems because higher temperatures will increase bac- terial activity and lower freshwater supplies, increasing the pollution con- tent of wastewater. Overuse of aquifers has caused salinization throughout the region, especially in heavily populated coastal areas, including Beirut, Gaza, Latakia in Syria, and along the Gulf. Interior aquifers (for example, the Amman-Zarqa basin in Jordan) have also been affected by the problem since excessive abstraction draws up underlying saline waters. Salinization is very difficult to reverse because it requires large amounts of freshwater to bring down the freshwater-saline interface. Lacking any control mea- sures, climate change is projected to intensify the salinization of aquifers as the increased supply-demand gap will encourage further abstraction of groundwater. 128 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Managing Water Resources Is Critical in a Changing Climate A warmer, drier, and more volatile climate in the Arab region will most likely exacerbate already-adverse water conditions; holistic water strate- gies that can respond to a multitude of complex, intertwined, and often- conflicting challenges need to be adopted. These strategies need to be flexible and adaptive to address the great uncertainties about conditions in the future. In this water-scarce region, water is often the most limiting factor in key socioeconomic sectors. Adaptation strategies must incorpo- rate water issues in all sectors, including agriculture, urban development, trade, and tourism. To facilitate developing these strategies, we propose several adapta- tion options organized under the umbrella of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), as well as a socioeconomic development frame- work. IWRM seeks to balance water-supply development with demand management within a framework of environmental sustainability. The IWRM components are complemented by measures that address the im- pact of water resource availability on socioeconomic development. A central theme in this approach is that no one-size-fits-all adaptation solutions apply to all Arab countries. Even at the national level, adapta- tion measures have to consider variations from one locality to another. An effective strategy is a portfolio of adaptation options from among a pool of measures tailored to suit each country’s political, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions. Gulf countries, for example, will need to focus on enhancing their desalination capacities, reusing wastewater, and devel- oping strategic reserves, while pursuing aggressive water-demand man- agement programs. Arab countries dependent on shared water resources would have to place a high priority on reaching international water re- source agreements with border countries. To simplify this discussion, adaptation options are grouped into two main categories: (a) water management and (b) water-related develop- ment policies in nonwater sectors. The first category captures the two main IWRM branches of supply-and-demand management in addition to other relevant water issues, such as governance, disaster risk manage- ment, and cooperation in managing shared water resources. Integrated Water Resources Management Will Be Critical IWRM is based on four principles presented by the International Confer- ence on Water and the Environment in Dublin in 1992, and later adopted by the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 (Agarwal et al. 2000): Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 129 • Freshwater is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, development, and the environment. • Water development and management should be based on a participa- tory approach, involving users, planners, and policy makers at all levels. • Women play a central part in the provision, management, and safe- guarding of water. • Water has an economic value in all its competing uses and should be recognized as an economic good. Subsequent efforts by the Global Water Partnership (GWP) focused on developing implementation frameworks for IWRM. They include bal- ancing water-demand management with supply management, ecosystem protection, and social equity. It also emphasized the importance of water as an economic commodity that needs to be managed to reflect its scarcity and optimize its socioeconomic and environmental services. Supply-Side Management Will Need to Be Optimized Water resources management traditionally focused on developing water supplies. Although water resources management efforts are leaning to- ward better demand management and governance, water-supply develop- ment is necessary to ensure reliability of water resource systems and op- timal use of resources. Storage and conveyance Currently, a number of Arab countries have invested significantly in water-supply infrastructure. The region now has the world’s highest storage capacity per cubic meter (Bucknall 2007). These investments have greatly enhanced access to water supplies and have facilitated a dra- matic expansion of agriculture. Before the construction of the Aswan High Dam, Egypt suffered major debilitating droughts, and a large part of its population was at the mercy of devastating seasonal floods. The Aswan High Dam offered Egyptians a way to control runoff from the Nile and to provide a stable water supply. Combined with good forecast- ing and operational systems for the entire Nile basin, the dam also en- abled Egypt to effectively weather the extended drought of the mid- 1980s (Conway 2005). Several factors influence the effectiveness of storage strategies: size, cost, rate of loss, and externalities. Large reservoirs are needed to provide adequate and reliable water supplies for large communities and to secure irrigation for agriculture during the rainless growing season. Large reser- 130 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries voirs also have the advantage of economy of scale. However, they are costly to build and maintain, and they can result in massive social and environmental disturbances. For example, Egypt was hard-pressed finan- cially and politically to secure funding for the Aswan High Dam. Al- though the dam successfully stopped damage from seasonal flooding, it was at the expense of forfeiting the nutrient-laden sediment the floodwa- ter brought with it to replenish the Nile Delta (Syvitski 2008). The re- duced sediment has also resulted in shrinking the delta since less sediment is deposited to replace that lost by erosion. Integrated surface and groundwater storage strategy Reservoirs in arid and semiarid regions sustain significant evaporation and seepage from flat terrain, permeable geological formations, and long, hot summers (Sivapragasam et al. 2009). The evaporation from Lake Nasser (a reservoir of the Aswan High Dam) is estimated to consume about 5 percent of the total Nile flow (Sadek, Shahin, and Stigter 1997). Lake Assad in Syria also loses substantial amounts of water from evapora- tion. In warmer climates, higher evaporation rates reduce the storage value of these reservoirs. Historically, underground storage and tunnels were used to reduce evaporative losses. Evaporation is effectively elimi- nated from water cisterns and the underground aflaj system. These prac- tices can be reinstated to complement existing storage facilities. A more promising implementation of underground storage is to use the vast natural aquifer storage capacity to store and improve the quality of water. Because they are not subject to evaporation, aquifers have a distinct advantage over surface reservoirs in semiarid regions. The Arab region also has few suitable sites for surface storage but has ample aquifer capacity. Aquifer storage can be used for excess winter runoff and treated wastewater. In Saudi Arabia, a large network of recharge dams dots the arid Arabian Desert. Al-Turbak (1991) indicated that these dams are highly effective in recharging shallow aquifers. Abu Dhabi has embarked on a massive US$5 billion program, based on the aquifer storage and re- covery approach, to use local aquifers as strategic reserves for desalinated water. Currently, the United Arab Emirates has only a two-day desali- nated water storage capacity, making the country extremely vulnerable to any disruption in its desalination plants. Other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have similar limited storage capacity, with the highest not exceeding five days (Dawoud 2009). In the face of projected increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts, Arab countries may develop long-term plans to manage their natural and constructed storage to offer reliable water supplies on a mul- tiyear basis. Storage facilities can be managed to strike a value-driven balance between supply and demand through systems that involve fore- Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 131 casting and monitoring water inputs, outputs, and stock levels and pro- tecting water quality. If properly managed, water storage—both surface and groundwater—can be a cost-effective way to mitigate seasonal and multiyear variability in weather conditions. Management of groundwater resources Fossil groundwater is particularly important, and its strategic importance will rise as climate change further shrinks water supplies in the Arab re- gion. These resources are best reserved for domestic use and high-value industrial and agricultural activities. To retain the vital socioeconomic role of these resources, Arab countries may consider placing strict regula- tions on their use and developing programs to rehabilitate and recharge fossil aquifers. Renewable groundwater resources are in theory best managed by main- taining a balance between supply and optimal allocation of water with- drawals. In practice, however, two main barriers stand in the face of proper management of groundwater resources. First, many of these resources stretch over several countries that in most cases have not entered into a resource-sharing agreement, which has encouraged overexploitation. Sec- ond, encouraged by past agricultural policies, many of these resources are already being used by farmers, and halting these activities without endan- gering established livelihoods is difficult. In many cases, farming has stopped only after water levels dropped below exploitable levels or water became too saline to be used in agriculture (Chebaane et al. 2004). However, after several decades of improper management, many Arab countries—alarmed by the loss of valuable groundwater stocks—have implemented policies that restrict groundwater extraction and curtail ag- ricultural activities based on groundwater. Jordan has restricted abstrac- tion and stopped issuing licenses for drilling wells in the Amman-Zarqa basin after aquifers dropped several meters following years of excessive abstraction (Chebaane et al. 2004). Saudi Arabia has phased out wheat farming that uses fossil water, which reached a peak several years ago at the expense of valuable nonrenewable water reserves. Sowers and Wein- thal (2010) indicate, however, that these restrictions are facing resistance from highly influential agricultural firms, and some have circumvented the regulations by switching to other crops. Protection of water resources The relentless and growing pollution of water resources in the region is depriving its people—sometimes irreversibly—of vital natural assets that are very costly to replace; laws and regulations are urgently needed to stem pollution. Although several Arab countries have strict laws and regulations for protecting water resources, few have implemented them effectively. A 132 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries notable exception is Jordan, which has recently created a water and envi- ronmental protection program that includes a dedicated law enforcement force—the first of its kind in the region (Subah and Margane 2010). Artificial recharge could be used to retard seawater intrusion by creat- ing a barrier of freshwater at the seawater–freshwater interface. The coastal aquifers in Lebanon are currently in great danger of being over- whelmed by seawater intrusion from the excessive extraction of ground- water, especially in the drier periods of the year (Saadeh 2008). Before the urbanization of the coastal area, seawater was kept in check by the hy- draulic pressure of inflow from the neighboring mountains. To restore this balance, several measures need to be taken, including controlling il- legal pumping, recharging the aquifer with excess runoff in the winter, and treating wastewater throughout the year. Wastewater treatment and reuse Improperly managed, highly contaminated wastewater will very likely find its way to streams and aquifers, endangering public health, damaging vital ecosystems, and rendering valuable water resources unusable. Farm- ers occasionally access disposed untreated wastewater to try to manage through drier seasons or simply to avoid paying for water services. Unless proper action is taken, this maladaptation practice is expected to intensify in a warmer and drier climate. High capital and operational costs are the main obstacles to setting up wastewater treatment systems. They can, however, be defrayed by reus- ing treated wastewater for agriculture and freeing up high-quality fresh- water for domestic use. The nutrient-laden, treated wastewater has the added benefit of reducing the need for costly and environmentally un- friendly fertilizers. Given the choice, however, farmers prefer to use fresh- water, fearing restrictions by importing countries on wastewater-grown produce and the public’s aversion to such produce. Gulf countries, for example, imposed restrictions in the 1980s on importing Jordanian pro- duce when the country expanded the use of treated wastewater in agricul- ture. Egypt generates a substantial amount of wastewater, which is mostly treated and reused outside the Nile Delta to support expanding desert reforestation schemes and cultivation of jatropha to produce biodiesel (AHT Group 2009). Several measures are required to expand the use of treated wastewater in agriculture. Stringent public health regulations in the application of wastewater and the handling of produce are necessary to reduce risk and increase public confidence and acceptance. Treatment methods need to be fine-tuned and optimized for specific applications. Less stringent, and consequently less costly, quality requirements are adequate if irrigation methods and crop choices reduce the risk of exposure of workers and Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 133 produce to treated wastewater. More stringent standards are required to treat wastewater at the tertiary level for recharging aquifers used for drinking water. Religious fatwas have cleared the way for using treated wastewater to grow food. Using treated wastewater has to be well integrated into the overall water resources management strategy. In particular, regulation and pric- ing of freshwater for agriculture must be in tune with those of treated wastewater. In Tunisia, preferential pricing of treated wastewater over freshwater has encouraged wider use of treated wastewater. Jordan ap- plies a combination of restriction and pricing to expand the use of treated wastewater—drawn by gravity from Amman to the Jordan valley from which freshwater is pumped back to Amman. Along with other measures, the use of treated wastewater allows the country to defer capital invest- ment in expensive water-supply projects. Desalination For Arab countries with extreme water scarcity, desalination is the pri- mary source of water supply. Historically, these countries—mainly con- centrated in the Gulf region—were very thinly populated. The advent of oil and the consequent population boom have necessitated tapping into seawater to meet unabated increases in demand. The GCC countries are at the lead worldwide in using desalination technology. Today, nearly 50 percent of the world’s total desalination production is concentrated in those countries (Bushnak 2010). After decades of contemplating securing water supplies through piping schemes from other countries (for example, the Peace pipeline from Tur- key and the Green pipeline between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Qatar), the GCC countries have adopted desalination as their long-term strategy to achieve water security. Desalination offers exclusive sover- eignty over produced water resources. However, the technology is energy intensive and consequently has a large carbon footprint. Brine and heat from desalination plants have detrimental environmental impacts that can be costly to manage. In addition, the GCC countries have very limited storage capacity to maintain supplies during interruptions in plant opera- tions. In the Gulf region, operation of desalination plants can be sus- pended for days during red tides. Several options for enhancing the reliability of water supplies in the GCC countries include (a) developing surface-water facilities, (b) con- structing a large network connecting desalination plants in GCC coun- tries, and (c) using local aquifers for strategic storage of desalinated water. The first option was assessed to be too costly and results in water stagna- tion. The second is very costly and requires coordination among different countries. The third option is currently being considered by several GCC 134 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries countries. As mentioned earlier, Abu Dhabi has embarked on developing strategic aquifer storage system that would provide several months of storage capacity (Dawoud 2009). Because of desalination’s high financial and environmental costs, large-scale desalination is a last-resort measure after exhausting more cost-effective and sustainable supply-side and demand-side options. Even in GCC countries, investment in additional desalination capacity can be deferred by adopting better demand management through effective pric- ing and by reducing unaccounted-for water in distribution networks. In coastal cities in other parts of the Arab world, desalination can be used to enhance water-supply systems and augment other water supplies. Desali- nation can also be a flexible and cost-effective water-supply solution in isolated areas, or tourist destinations, where retrieving water from distant water sources is prohibitively expensive. Brackish water, which is abun- dant in some Arab countries, is generally less costly to desalinate than seawater. However, treating effluents of desalination plants in interior areas can be quite costly. Advancements in using solar energy in desalination is making this op- tion increasingly more competitive in the long term compared with fossil fuels, particularly given that oil prices are projected to continue their upward trend. The Arab region has vast areas that are rated as prime sites for solar energy production. Several GCC countries are investing in re- newable energy, particularly in desalination applications. Both Masdar in Abu Dhabi and the recently established King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy have ambitious research and development pro- grams in solar energy and desalination. Demand-Side Management Will Become Increasingly Important Most Arab countries have already developed most of their renewable wa- ter resources; managing demand offers an effective and realistic option since those resources will shrink further under climate change. An emerg- ing set of management best practices has greatly enhanced water effi- ciency in several water-scarce environments. Chief among them is using market-based instruments to encourage efficiency and to ensure eco- nomic viability of water utilities. Market-based instruments In setting the “Arab Regional Strategy for Sustainable Consumption and Production,” the Council of Arab Ministers Responsible for the Environ- ment has called for adopting “policies, including market-based instru- ments, for water cost recovery” (CAMRE 2009). A study commissioned Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 135 under the auspices of the joint Water Policy Reform Program by the Egyptian government and USAID-Egypt assessed 20 market-based in- struments to enhance water resources management in Egypt (McCauley et al. 2002). Those instruments were assessed using several criteria, in- cluding economic efficiency, equity, and political, social, and cultural ac- ceptability, as well as institutional capacity. Initial assessments were fur- ther refined through a consultation process involving several government agencies, particularly the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. Several market-based instruments were deemed suitable or warranted further assessment for implementation in Egypt. Groundwater extraction charges and subsidies of urban water meters and water-conserving equip- ment were considered most suitable for reducing water use. The study recommended further assessment of area-based and volumetric irrigation charges and increased urban and industrial water service tariffs. Increasing user wastewater treatment fees and subsidizing rural sanitation and pollu- tion control equipment were deemed necessary to manage water quality. The study recommended encouraging voluntary agreements by the indus- try to control pollution and publicly disclose environmental information. Regardless of how water service charges are ultimately set, the real full cost of water must be understood. According to Agarwal et al. (2000), the full cost of water is composed of a full economic cost and the environmen- tal cost of forfeiting water’s ecosystem services (figure 3.8). The full eco- nomic cost is widely confused with the full supply cost, which captures only the actual cost of providing water and services, including a profit margin. Commonly overlooked is the opportunity cost, which reflects FIGURE 3.8 Components of the Full Cost of Water Environmental externalities Economic externalities Opportunity FULL cost FULL COST ECONOMIC Capital COST charges FULL SUPPLY Operation and COST maintenance cost Source: Agarwal et al. 2000. 136 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries the additional benefit forfeited from not using water in higher-value applications. Opportunity cost is quite significant under scarce water conditions. For example, water supplied with minimal or no cost for irrigation is valued considerably higher by domestic users. Another example is the cost of desalinating and pumping water to Riyadh from the Arabian Gulf is valued less than the nominal amount charged for using fossil water for agriculture. Another component of the full economic cost is lost benefits by indirect users, including, for example, a reduction in return flows from springs and streams. The wastewater treatment cost, which dwarfs the supply cost in certain locations, is an important component of the full economic cost. The cost can be defrayed by reusing treated wastewater. Basing water service charges on full cost recovery—although necessary for maintaining the economic sustainability of water utilities—is a highly contentious issue in the Arab region because many Arab countries adopt complex social welfare systems that are hinged on food and agricultural subsidies, which are in turn dependent on subsidized water services and irrigation. Reducing these subsidies—even only to recover the supply costs—may trigger social and economic upheavals that could have serious economic, social, and political ramifications. Such measures must be part of a larger development strategy that seeks to diversify the economy and support the agricultural communities and workforce to transition to more productive agriculture and less water-intensive industrial sectors (see chapter 4). To protect the poor, water tariffs can be structured in a progressive tariff system to allow for below-cost rates on a threshold of water usage necessary to maintain good health and well-being. Additional units of water can be charged at a progressively higher rate to restrain excessive and wasteful uses. Many Arab countries have highly subsidized rates, in- cluding the GCC states where full supply costs are very high. Other countries, such as Jordan and Tunisia, have set more effective tariff schemes. Tunisia employs favorable differential rates for treated waste- water to encourage its use in agriculture. Well-structured and consistent demand-management measures in the Rabat-Casablanca area in Mo- rocco drastically suppressed projected water demand, deferring planned major water supply projects (DGH Rabat 2002). Effective water-use tariffs require adequate institutional and regulatory conditions. Users are willing to pay higher rates for better-quality water services. The overall impact would be positive if higher water-service charges were accompanied by improved services and transparent account- ing, which requires a reliable metering system. But reliable water metering is a challenge for many Arab countries because when water service is inter- Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 137 mittent, only the more expensive types of meters are accurate. The World Bank (2010) recommends that Arab cities maintain a 24–7 service. Reducing unaccounted-for water in distribution networks Unaccounted-for water (UfW) is defined as the difference between the amount of water delivered by the water utility and the amount actually billed. UfW includes losses in the network, illegal water use, and inac- curate metering. UfW can surpass 60 percent in poorly maintained dis- tribution networks in some Arab cities, such as Beirut, Jericho, and Sanaa. Potential water savings from reducing UfW are substantial given that their rates can be as low as 5 percent in highly pressurized distribution networks, such as those in Japan and Singapore (Ueda and Benouahi 2009). UfW has huge opportunity costs that are equal to the cost of de- salination and pumping in the GCC countries. In Libya, the cost is at least equal to the capital and operational costs of delivering water through the Great Manmade River system, which taps the country’s main fossil aquifers in the south and delivers water hundreds of kilometers north to the coast. Rehabilitating old networks also has large public health benefits in that it reduces the risk of contaminated water entering the network through leaks, which is exacerbated by the relatively low pressure in many networks in the region. Raising public awareness Despite evident water scarcity across the Arab region, the relatively wide- spread perception is that groundwater is abundant and governments are withholding information on its availability to stop people from using it. Although information on water resources is still lacking in the Arab re- gion, the perception that groundwater is abundant is false and counter- productive. People need better information about the water resources in the Arab region and how climate change is likely to affect them. Several public awareness campaigns have been launched across the re- gion, but more are needed. The public must be engaged in the process of water resources management. Engaging the public requires a transparent process involving the media, schools, and nongovernmental organizations. Managing Water Resources Requires Multifaceted Approaches Management of water resources and provision of water services involve a complex array of formal and informal organizations, different and often competing users, and other stakeholders under varying socioeconomic, environmental, and political conditions. Separate bodies often exist for water services (the urban domestic and industrial sectors) and water re- sources (the rural domestic and agriculture sectors). In an increasing 138 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries number of Arab countries, the private sector has become an important factor in the provision of water services, encouraged under public-private partnerships. Water governance Negotiating the complexities of water management requires effective and efficient governance, with actors with the authority and responsibility to make and implement decisions across other ministries. The water gover- nance system should establish the mandates, authorities, and responsibili- ties of different institutions and delineate relationships among them and other actors. Such governance systems are necessary for establishing poli- cies and enacting laws and regulations to facilitate implementation of the IWRM principles of economic optimization, social equity, and environ- mental sustainability. Rogers and Hall (2003) have identified several conditions to achieve good governance: inclusiveness, accountability, participation, transpar- ency, predictability, and responsiveness. In water governance, these con- ditions would entail involving civil society in decision making, developing a fair and transparent water-rights system, properly monitoring and shar- ing information, and balancing the involvement of the public and private sectors in managing water resources and delivering services. Such princi- ples formed the basis of traditional community-based water systems in the Arab world, such as aflaj/foggara/qanat. Important lessons can be learned from these ancient systems on establishing and enforcing rules of water allocation and quality control, and in participatory decision making. Progress in reforming the water governance systems in Arab countries has been generally limited to date. Few governments have enacted spe- cific water legislation, and even those that have often do not have the means or power to enforce the measures (Majzoub 2010). The World Bank identified poor accountability as the main obstacle to effective man- agement of water resources because of the lack of political will to under- take necessary but unpopular water reforms (Bucknall 2007). The World Bank advocates more transparent approaches to engage the public in the process of making difficult reforms, such as deregulation of utilities, pric- ing, and restrictions on water use (Bucknall 2007). The Global Water Partnership offers a wide range of options based on the IWRM approach to achieve better governance through its “Toolbox for IWRM” (GWP 2003c). Several Arab countries have applied some of those tools to enhance water governance. In Egypt, GWP Toolbox methods were used to support institutional strengthening of the Alexan- dria General Water Authority (GWP 2003a). In Jordan, GWP Toolbox instruments were used to facilitate the reforming of the public Jordan Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 139 Valley Authority from a service provider to a regulatory agency oversee- ing provision of water services by private entities (GWP 2003b). Disaster risk management Climate change is expected to exacerbate the risk of two types of precipitation-related hazards: flash floods and severe droughts. An in- crease in the frequency and intensity of flooding has already been ob- served across the region, particularly in areas that have recently been settled with virtually no consideration of flood risk. Extended droughts have not only devastated the least developed and most vulnerable coun- tries, such as Somalia, but they have also severely affected localities within more developed countries, such as Syria. Addressing both types of hazards requires not only reducing exposure to these hazards but also developing capacity to cope with their aftermaths. Reducing vulnerability to flooding requires coordinated efforts among different public agencies and the active participation of all stakeholders. Flooding risk—and its projected increase under climate change—should be considered in urban planning (see chapter 5 and spotlight 1 on disaster risk management). Preparedness for flooding events is an important com- ponent of flood risk management that includes raising public awareness and training police and civil defense emergency units complemented by a comprehensive and responsive flood-forecasting system. Dealing with severe droughts requires developing adequate storage and conveyance and reducing the socioeconomic vulnerability of the af- fected population. Rural communities that depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralists are particularly at risk. In the least developed countries, such as Somalia, socioeconomic activities depend heavily on rainfall pat- terns. Both farmers and pastoralists are vulnerable to extended droughts, including the risks of loss of income, malnutrition, and famine. Enhanc- ing the resilience of these groups requires reducing their dependence on rainfed agriculture by diversifying the economy and creating alternatives to climate-dependent economic activities (see chapter 4). In the shorter term, authorities and nongovernmental organizations can support these societies during droughts through relief efforts, including relocation to other parts of the country. Cooperative management of shared water resources In the absence of cooperation on managing shared water resources, uni- lateral adaptation to the impact of drying conditions may undermine these scarce resources, cause socioeconomic and environmental harm to other parties, and increase tension and the potential for conflict among water-sharing countries. 140 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Few ratified agreements on shared water resources exist in the Arab region, and none has led to an effective joint management of shared re- sources (ESCWA 2009; Stephan 2010). Syria and Lebanon reached an agreement on the Orontes River, which was signed in 1994 and ratified in 2001. The two countries also entered into agreement on sharing the Nahr al-Kabir al-Janoubi in 2002. Jordan and Syria first signed an agreement on the Yarmouk River in 1953, which was later superseded by another in 1987, eventually leading to the joint development of the Unity Dam. A comprehensive agreement on the Euphrates-Tigris basin is still elu- sive, despite several decades of technical cooperation and bilateral agree- ments among the three riparian countries—Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. Egypt and Sudan entered into an agreement in 1992 on the sharing of the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer. The two countries also signed an agreement in 1957 to share water resources from the Nile, although that agreement has been contested by upstream countries, which have recently signed another agreement that has in turn been rejected by both Egypt and Su- dan (discussed earlier). Stephan (2010) proposes several actions to enhance more sound man- agement of shared water resources in the region. In particular, she em- phasizes initiating joint projects, involving regional and international organizations such as the UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, ratifying international water laws and conventions, and reaching agreements on sharing these resources. Although many of the workshops and conferences attended by these countries discussed most of these recommendations extensively, they seem to have had little effect in driving further cooperation. A large part of this inaction is attributed to power imbalances among sharing countries (Zeitoun and Warner 2006), the generally lukewarm if not hostile political relations among many of these countries, and to the perception by many countries that agreements will impose constraints on developing water resources within their boundaries. Turkey’s current rapprochement with Arab countries is easing tension over disputes about the Euphrates-Tigris basin. But it is unclear if it will eventually lead to an overarching agreement on this basin, given that Turkey is still pursuing the development of its massive Southeastern Anatolia Project (Mutlu 2011). Climate change and agricultural policies A multipronged and multisectoral strategy will be needed by all countries in which agriculture currently uses the lion’s share of water (box 3.1). First, the agriculture sector needs to implement more water-efficient technologies and to use marginal water sources (see chapter 4) to protect freshwater reserves. Second, mechanisms should be established to reduce Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 141 BOX 3.1 Consuming versus Using Water: The Double-Edged Nature of Irrigation Efficiency Water is distinctive in that its use at one Velazquez (2008) have found that programs point does not necessarily preclude its fur- designed to improve irrigation efficiency in ther use at another point. For example, a the Rio Grande basin shared between the large part of the water used in showering and United States and Mexico have increased bathing may find its way back to the water crop yield at the expense of increasing evap- resource system through drainage and treat- otranspiration and reducing recharge to ment. Even leakage from a domestic water aquifers. They propose that irrigation effi- supply network can recharge local aquifers. ciency initiatives are better conducted in an Obviously, water does not usually return integrated manner that takes full account with the same quality with which it was of the water balance throughout the whole delivered. In comparison, water lost through watershed. These findings are particularly evaporation or drainage to saline water important in assessing the impact of irriga- bodies is not retrievable and is considered tion practices in shared aquifers and basins. “consumed.” These issues are important For example, improving irrigation efficiency when considering improving irrigation effi- on the Turkish side of the Euphrates could ciency and allocating water among upstream have negative consequences for groundwater and downstream users. Ward and Pulido- levels in downstream Syria. Source: Authors’ compilation. 142 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries the subsidies associated with agricultural water use (subsidized electricity, water, and pumps) and to ensure that market mechanisms are used that reflect the resource value and supply costs. Such mechanisms will provide an incentive to increase efficiency and facilitate more effective allocation of water resources. Such measures are likely to lead to reallocation of water to sectors with greater economic returns. Like in many countries of the Arab region, agricultural water use ac- counts for the majority of water consumption in Mexico, consuming 70 percent of the available freshwater. Subsidies of electricity tariffs contrib- uted to this high agricultural water consumption, because they not only incentivize the overextraction of pumped groundwater but also discour- aged the adoption of energy- and water-saving techniques. The National Ecological Institute of Mexico found that even in areas with extreme wa- ter scarcity, farmers use some of the least efficient irrigation technologies, such as open dirt canals. In response to overextraction rates of renewable groundwater of close to 200 percent, the Mexican government decided to remove the price distortion and is piloting the replacement of the price subsidy with direct cash transfers to farmers. Although the case of Mexico can serve as an example of an economic management tool, the context of scarcity and transboundary aquifers is distinct in the Arab region and not immediately comparable. Some countries have already started to curtail agricultural activity by limiting water allocations and through more realistic pricing. These ac- tions need to be coordinated, however, with human resources develop- ment strategies that aim at developing skills for farmers to move into more productive sectors (see chapter 4 for more details). Economic water cost curves are a decision support tool for supply-demand management Several factors need to be considered in choosing the right mix of ad- aptation measures, which are country specific and depend on political, socioeconomic, and cultural choices. Marginal economic cost curves for water are intuitive tools used to identify the optimal mix of technical measures to close a given supply-demand gap. They aim to compare the availability and cost-effectiveness of options for alternative adaptation measures. The World Bank (2012) produced a regional water cost curve as well as a set of marginal water cost curves for most Arab countries.4 The study considered nine adaptation options and assessed their costs in 2030 (table 3.2). These costs are assumed homogeneous among Arab countries, meaning cost curves will differ with regard to the volume po- tential of each measure to close the demand gap, rather than in the costs of the measure. The cost of each measure is indicative of the relative fi- nancial magnitude of each measure. Overall the curves show that desalination—even with expected effi- ciency improvements—is vastly more expensive than storage expansion Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 143 TABLE 3.2 Cost of Water Adaptation Measures Adaptation measure Cost (US$/m3 water) Improve agricultural practice 0.02 Expand reservoir capacity (small scale) 0.03 Reuse domestic and industrial water 0.03 Reuse irrigation water 0.04 Expand reservoir capacity (large scale) 0.05 Reduce irrigated areas 0.10 Desalinate using renewable energy 1.30 Desalinate using conventional energy 1.85 Reduce domestic and industrial demand 2.00 Source: World Bank 2012. measures, which in turn are often much more expensive than measures to improve water productivity. By overlaying the projected supply-demand gap (unmet demand) for the region for 2040–50 on the cost curve, figure 3.9 shows that the region has choices in how to close the gap. If the cheapest options are selected, the total annual costs in 2050 of bridging the unmet water gap of 199 cubic kilometers are about US$104 billion. FIGURE 3.9 Regional Water Marginal Cost Curve for the Average Climate Projection for Arab Countries 2.00 a. 250 b. Cost (US$ per cubic meter) 200 Cumulative cost (US$ millions) 1.50 150 1.00 100 0.50 50 0.00 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Additional water available (millions of cubic meters per year) Additional water available (millions of cubic meters per year) Improve agricultural practice Reuse irrigation water Desalinate using renewable energy Expand reservoir capacity (small scale) Expand reservoir capacity (large scale) Desalinate using conventional energy Reuse domestic and industrial water Reduce irrigated areas Reduce domestic and industrial demand Source: World Bank 2012. Note: “Desal-CSP” denotes desalination using concentrated solar power 144 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries The general assessment presented above should be interpreted with care. Different countries, even in the same region, face different choices and costs in how to close the gap. The World Bank (2012) shows that the majority of Arab countries have already exhausted the water supplies that can be procured at relatively low cost. The average adaptation costs are US$0.52 per cubic meter in the Mid- dle East and North Africa, but they vary substantially among countries. The per-cubic-meter cost ranges from US$0.02 in Algeria to US$0.98 in the United Arab Emirates (figure 3.10). The per-cubic-meter costs are less than US$0.36 in Algeria, Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Syria, and Tunisia and more than US$0.64 in Bahrain, the Gaza Strip, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the West Bank. Long-Term Adaptation Strategies Can Reduce the Water Gap Water scarcity is a main constraint to socioeconomic development in the Arab region. Along with other stressors, including demographic and land-use changes, climate change will exacerbate the already-precarious high water deficit across the Arab region. In 2040, the region will likely face a reduction in water runoff by 10 percent because of climate change. In combination with the other challenges mentioned, this reduction will result in a 50 percent renewable supply gap. Climate change is also ex- pected to increase the occurrence and intensity of extreme flooding. The impact of these grim projections can, however, be moderated or avoided if countries take stock of the main challenges and opportunities at the regional, national, and community levels and adopt long-term ad- aptation strategies to address these challenges. In the previous sections, we have identified key challenges and explored several adaptation options to deal with them. Pulling it all together, we propose the following key messages and policy options that we believe would help the region achieve sustainable water resources management in a changing climate: 1. Climate change is projected to reduce natural water supplies in most of the region whereas demand is increasing, resulting in a large supply gap. Most climate models project lower precipitations and higher temperatures for most Arab countries under changing climate conditions—leading to significant reduction in stream runoff. This reduction in runoff will result in an overall desiccation characterized by major reductions in natural water supplies. Over the same period, a parallel increase in water demand of up to 60 percent is projected to result in a 50 per- cent renewable water supply gap for the region. Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 145 FIGURE 3.10 Water Marginal Cost Curves for Algeria and the United Arab Emirates a. Algeria 0.20 14,000 12,000 Cumulative cost (US$ millions) 0.16 10,000 Costs (US$/m3) 0.12 8,000 0.08 6,000 4,000 0.04 2,000 0.00 0 0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 0 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 90 1,8 2,7 3,6 4,5 5,4 6,3 7,2 8,1 9,0 Additional water availability (m3 millions/year) Additional water availability (m3 millions/year) b. United Arab Emirates 2.00 4,000 1.60 Cumulative cost (US$ millions) 3,000 Costs (US$/m3) 1.20 2,000 0.80 0.40 1,000 0.00 0 0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 9 8 7 76 95 13 32 51 70 89 31 63 95 1,2 1,5 1,9 2,2 2,5 2,8 3,1 3 3 Additional water availability (m millions/year) Additional water availability (m millions/year) Improve agricultural practice Reuse irrigation water Desalinate using renewable energy (desal-CSP) Expand reservoir capacity (small scale) Expand reservoir capacity (large scale) Desalinate using conventional energy Reuse domestic and industrial water Reduce irrigated areas Reduce domestic and industrial demand Source: World Bank 2012. [[AQ: correct reference?]] Note: Not all measures are illustrated because of varying applicability at country level. “Desal-CSP” denotes desalination using concentrated solar power. 2. The projections call for immediate action, which includes a combination of good water management and climate adaptation. To meet future demand in a sustainable manner, decision makers have to make choices today to implement integrated water resources management. In addition, adaptation options exist that can be adopted nationally for long-term 146 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries planning for the projected additional climate impact on scarcity and increased variability. 3. Water management requires maintaining the balance among economic ef- ficiency, social equity, and environmental sustainability to enhance overall climate change resilience. In setting out plans for the future, decision makers should not lose sight of striking a balance among the three pillars of Integrated Water Resources Management: economic effi- ciency, social equity, and environmental protection. 4. Integrate water resources management across water and nonwater sectors (agriculture, tourism, and urban development) to create a total resource view with water as a cross-sectoral input to development. Water use is largely determined outside the realm of the departments responsible for water resources management. Water is better addressed as an integral and high-priority component in national development strat- egies. Clear directives must be developed for optimal allocation of water across all sectors. 5. Climate change will require upgrading disaster risk management for floods and drought. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts. In a region with high popula- tion growth and economic dependency on agriculture, the necessary institutions and resources must be established to manage these im- pending risks. 6. Nonconventional supply options, storage, and conveyance capacity can en- hance resilience in the face of droughts and floods. Notwithstanding the central role of demand-side management, Arab countries may con- sider developing nonconventional supply options and adequate stor- age and conveyance capacity to secure minimum level of supplies during extended droughts, which are expected to increase in frequen- cy and intensity under climatic changes. Adequate storage and con- veyance capacity is particularly crucial for the least developed coun- tries—such as Mauritania and Somalia—which are extremely vulnerable to rainfall variability. 7. More aggressive water demand management is required to achieve sustain- ability and reduce the need for expensive water-supply infrastructure. Mar- ginal cost analysis for the region shows that water-demand manage- ment offers a more cost-effective and sustainable option than capital-intensive water-supply development. Market-based instru- ments are potentially valuable in increasing water-use efficiency and abating pressure on existing water resources. Climate Change Contributes to Water Scarcity 147 8. Improved water-use efficiency in agriculture will make more water available for use in other needed sectors. Considering that agriculture consumes more than 80 percent of water resources in the region, even a modest water savings in the sector could significantly increase the amount of water available for other sectors. Water-use efficiency in agriculture can be achieved through more efficient irrigation technologies, chang- es in cropping patterns and crop mixes, and research and development. 9. Enhanced regional economic integration will encourage water investment in less developed Arab countries and facilitate trade in water-intensive products from more water-endowed countries. Arab countries could seek a form of economic integration that facilitates free movement of people, goods, and capital. This measure would both facilitate more efficient use of water resources across the region and mitigate the impact of socioeconomic shocks triggered by severe droughts. 10. Climate change increases the need for regional and interregional cooperation on managing shared water resources. Increased stress on shared water resources brought about by climate change necessitates cooperation to facilitate sustainable management of these resources. 11. Investments should be made in developing an information base and in climate change research and development. Arab countries need to develop their capacity in research and development with respect to water and climate change issues and invest in data monitoring and information manage- ment—a prerequisite for conducting research and policy analysis. 12. To protect water resources from pollution, governments should enact and enforce water laws and regulations. Given the increasing value of water resources as they become scarcer in a changing climate, laws and regulations are needed to protect these resources from pollution. 13. Overall water governance needs improvement at all levels, including the full participation of stakeholders. Arab countries need to address defi- ciencies in water governance that hamper efforts to improve water management. The focus should be on enhancing accountability and transparency through establishing clear mandates, authorities, and responsibilities of different institutions. Notes 1. The World Bank (2012) report does not include the Comoros, Mauritania, Somalia, and Sudan. 148 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries 2. The 10 percent and 90 percent range in water shortage is between 90 and 280 cubic kilometers per year in the dry and wet scenarios considered in the study. 3. 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Zeitoun, Mark, and Jeroen Warner. 2006. “Hydro-hegemony: A Framework for Analysis of Transboundary Water Conflicts.” Water Policy 8 (5): 435–60. SPOTLIGHT 2: CLIMATE ADAPTATION Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Have a Role in Climate Adaptation Biodiversity in the Arab Region Is of Harasawa, and Murdiyarso 2001; Tolba and Global Importance for Agriculture Saab 2009). and Adaptation Although the common image of much of the Arab region is of deserts and rangelands, the an- Without biodiversity and ecosystem services, cestors of 80 to 100 crop, fruit tree, and live- life and human societies would not exist. Cli- stock species used today were domesticated mate variability and change constitute an ad- there. Such species include varieties of wheat ditional stress that ecosystems are subjected to such as durum and spelt, lentils, alfalfa, argan, in this arid and water-scarce region. It is esti- pomegranates, and sheep, all of which are criti- mated that 20 to 30 percent of species will face cal to the livelihoods and well-being of people a higher risk of extinction if there is 1°C to 2°C in the region and are also an important part of warming by the end of the century (Boko et al. global food production systems. These wild 2007). Direct impacts include changes in sea- species are a genetic resource that has the po- sonality, changes in growing seasons, and pro- tential to increase water-use efficiency, as well longed droughts. Indirect impacts include in- as drought and disease resistance (Bioversity In- creased frequency and intensity of fires. Some ternational 2006; FAO 2010; GTZ 2006). Their of these impacts will result in changes in the value as a source of adaptive traits is even greater structure and composition of vegetation, will under climate change. Some of these species are lead to longer-term changes in nutrient cy- found in transition zones (such as between des- cling and runoff, will further exacerbate nitro- erts and rangelands). They have high genetic gen limitations, and will affect plant and forage variability and resilience to climatic extremes growth (Bullock and Le Houérou 1996; Gitay (UNEP 2007). However, much of the tradi- and Noble 1998). Increasing sea levels and tional knowledge about growing these food spe- storm surges are leading to intrusion into the cies and managing these ecosystems is being rivers and aquifers and are affecting water lost, and a greater effort in the region and glob- quality and food production in the coastal and ally is needed to conserve and maintain this im- low areas (Boko et al. 2007; Elasha 2010; Lal, portant knowledge (World Bank 2009). 152 Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Have a Role in Climate Adaptation 153 Many countries have ecosystems that are their income (UNDP 2008). In the Arab coun- of critical value for tourism, for fisheries, and tries, the people in the least developed coun- for cultural heritage. Incorporating risks of cli- tries (LDCs) that are likely to be the most de- mate change in the management of these sys- pendent include pastoralists and fisherpeople. tems is essential. A Touareg proverb in the Grasslands, rangelands, and deserts are domi- Arab region highlights this need: “The differ- nant in the region; forest cover is generally low ence between paradise and desert is not water, (see table S2.2). Many deserts and rangelands but man”—or human management of the are important for grazing livestock of nomadic environment. communities and for nature-based tourism. Land degradation, overgrazing, fuelwood gath- ering, increasing invasive species, deforesta- Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services tion, hunting, infrastructure development, and Are Important for Economies and the overuse of freshwater are major threats to Livelihoods these systems (Lal, Harasawa, and Murdiyarso 2001; UNEP 1997, 2007). The importance of biodiversity and ecosystem The economic costs of environmental pollu- services (see table S2.1) in livelihoods and econ- tion have been estimated to range from 2.6 per- omies is often not recognized, nor is it included cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in in national development planning and sectoral Tunisia to about 4.5 percent in the Arab Re- strategies. Better valuation of ecosystem ser- public of Egypt (Croitoru and Sarraf 2010). vices and market and nonmarket mechanisms For example, environmental damage and water can help policy makers recognize the impor- degradation from irrigated agriculture results tance of biodiversity and ecosystem services and in increased salinity and waterlogging at the aid them in the discussion of trade-offs. cost of about 0.6 percent of GDP in Tunisia Global data show that poor people depend and 2.1 percent of GDP in Egypt (Croitoru on ecosystems for about 20 to 40 percent of and Sarraf 2010; World Bank 2007). TABLE S2.1 Classification of Ecosystem Services as in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Framework and Examples from the Chapters in This Volume Ecosystem service Examples Provisioning: People obtain products from ecosystems, such as food, Freshwater for human, livestock, and irrigation needs (chapter 3); fiber, fuel, forage and rangeland grazing materials, and agrobiodiverse sand, clay, and wood for building (chapter 5); nature-based tourism products. (chapter 6); and medicinal products (chapter 8). Regulating and supporting: People obtain benefits from the regulation Clean air (chapter 7); climate regulation (chapter 2); flood control of ecosystem processes, which is necessary for the production of all (chapters 3, 5, 6, and 7); erosion control (chapters 3 and 4); other ecosystem services. regulation of human diseases (chapter 8); and water purification (chapters 3 and 7). Cultural: People obtain nonmaterial benefits from ecosystems Many of the services mentioned in chapter 6. through spiritual enrichment, cognitive development, reflection, recreation, and aesthetic experiences. Source: MA 2003. 154 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE S2.2 Biodiversity and Ecosystems in Arab Countries Wetlands of Number of Share of land area Share of total Share of land Number of international biosphere reserves under conservation land classified as classified as forests conservation areas importance. (size in thousands Country (%) drylands (%) (%) (number in marine) Ramsar list (ha) of ha) Maghreb Algeria 5.1 21 0.6 18 (4) 1,866 6 (7,312) Libya 0.1 23 0.1 Morocco 0.7 92 11.5 12 (4) 14 2 (9,754) Tunisia 0.3 94 6.5 7 (2) 13 4 (74) Mashreq Egypt, Arab Rep. 9.7 8 0.1 35 (12) 106 2 (2,456) Iraq 100 1.9 8 (3) Jordan 3.4 72 1.1 11 (7) 7 1 (31) Lebanon 0.5 59 13.4 3 (1) 1 Syrian Arab Rep. 0.7 98 2.7 10 West Bank and Gaza 1.5 Gulf Bahrain 1.3 Kuwait 1.5 92 0.3 5 (2) Oman 14.0 14 0.0 6 (2) Qatar 0.0 0.0 Saudi Arabia 38.3 24 0.5 78 (3) United Arab Emirates 0.3 3.8 2 Least developed countries Comoros 1.6 Djibouti 0.3 Mauritania 1.7 46 0.2 9 (3) 1,231 Somalia 0.8 10.8 10 (1) Sudan 5.2 67 29.4 27 (1) Yemen Rep. 30 1.0 1 Sources: UNDP et al. 2003; World Bank’s World Development Indicators database; World Bank, various years. Forest Area data accessed from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.FRST.ZS. Inland wetlands—many of which are ephem- and has had a negative impact on biodiversity eral—and coastal and marine areas are impor- and livelihoods. Other major threats to coastal tant economically, culturally, and for their bio- areas include oil spills, chemical contamination, diversity. Fish from coastal, marine, and inland ballast water spills, and military conflicts. In waters contribute to the economy and provide some countries, organic-rich discharge from up to 20 percent of the protein for people in livestock and agriculture production and the some parts of the region (see table S2.2). The water discharged from desalination plants are Dead Sea and Red Sea have unique, endemic, additional threats (Birot, Garcia, and Palahi and globally threatened reef and coastal species. 2011; UNEP 2007; World Bank 2007). Warmer Dredging for urban and infrastructure develop- sea temperatures from climate change add an ment has extensively altered about half of the additional stressor to the reef, and periods of coastlines in countries that have marine coasts coral bleaching are becoming more common. Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Have a Role in Climate Adaptation 155 Annual marine catch, 1998–2000 Fish protein as a Mammals and bird species Higher plant species (thousands of share of animal Number Number threatened Number Number threatened metric tons) protein (%) 275 19 3,164 2 98 6 152 9 1,825 1 33 7 311 25 3,675 2 782 17 243 16 2,196 90 12 221 20 2,076 2 156 19 221 22 12.5 8 188 18 2,100 0.1 5 173 12 3,000 3.6 7 208 12 3,000 2.6 2 56 8 234 5.8 5 165 19 1,204 6 110.0 202 23 2,028 3 49.0 6 59 11 112.5 12 13 5 14 2 233 12 1,100 0 33 11 26 21 20.7 2 547 29 3,137 17 5.7 2 159 17 1,650 52 122 22 Few studies have been conducted on the Nile Delta cover about 5.5 percent of the total economic valuation of ecosystem services in the area of Egypt, but they provide benefits for 95 region, and even fewer on the impacts of cli- percent of the people of that area, with 25 per- mate change on these services. A rare example cent of the population living within the Delta, is a study of forests in Morocco (Birouk et al. according to a 2011 government review docu- 1996). According to the study, traditional for- ment by the Coastal Research Institute. The estry accounts for about 2 percent of agricul- Arab Human Development Report 2009 indicated tural GDP, but if nontimber and other services that high pressure on ecosystems in many Arab for rural people are included, the figure in- countries exceeds their capacity for renewal, creases to 10 percent. In Tunisia, 35 percent of thus limiting their resilience to climate change forest value is related to forest soil and water and other stresses (UNDP 2009). Analyses conservation in the north (GTZ and MARH based on the ecological footprint, a measure of 2007). The ecosystems along the Nile and the ecosystem service consumption, show that the 156 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE S2.3 Ecological Capacity and the Deficit or Reserve in Arab Countries, 2007 Ecological footprint consumption Total biocapacity Ecological deficit/reserve Country (global ha/person) (global ha/person) (global ha/person) Maghreb Algeria 1.60 0.60 −1.00 Libya 3.10 0.40 −2.70 Morocco 1.22 0.61 −0.61 Tunisia 1.90 0.98 −0.92 Mashreq Egypt, Arab Rep. 1.66 0.62 −1.04 Iraq 1.35 0.30 −1.05 Jordan 2.05 0.24 −1.81 Lebanon 2.90 0.40 −2.50 Syrian Arab Rep. 1.52 0.70 −0.82 West Bank and Gaza 0.74 0.16 −0.58 Gulf Bahrain 10.04 0.94 −9.10 Kuwait 6.32 0.40 −5.92 Oman 4.99 2.14 −2.85 Qatar 10.51 2.51 −8.00 Saudi Arabia 5.13 0.84 −4.29 United Arab Emirates 10.68 0.85 −9.83 Least developed countries Comoros 1.42 0.29 −1.13 Djibouti Mauritania 2.61 5.50 2.89 Somalia 1.42 1.40 −0.02 Sudan 1.73 2.42 0.69 Yemen Rep. 0.94 0.62 −0.32 Source: WWF 2010. Note: Ecological footprint is a measure of resource consumption, biocapacity is a measure of ecosystem production, and ecological deficit/reserve is the difference between consumption and capacity of the ecosystems. Ha = hectare. richer countries, mostly in the Gulf, generally use, environmental flows to support riverine have a large ecological deficit. The LDCs gen- and wetland ecosystems, and conservation is erally have a lower ecological deficit, and two often an effective approach that can help ad- have a surplus (see table S2.3 and figure S2.1). dress multiple stresses, including climate vari- ability and change (CAWMA 2007). Examples from Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, and Managing Risks from Climate the Republic of Yemen illustrate how inte- Change and Other Pressures Is grated land and water management can help Imperative improve ecosystem resiliency and provide other benefits (see box S2.1). Climate variability or Integrated land and water management that in- climatic extreme events are likely to dispropor- corporates more efficient and reduced water tionately affect populations that rely on ecosys- Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Have a Role in Climate Adaptation 157 FIGURE S2.1 The Ecological Footprint of Arab Countries 12 Ecological footprint (hectares per capita) 8 4 0 –4 –8 –12 tes tar ud ait ia an Leb ya Ma non ia n isia t, A an p. b R ia So c lia Mo q We em cco nd . za f A orld tes an Rep li Ira da rab tan Ara er Re ub Ga Lib ma Om yp Sud w Qa ira Sta ro Tun Jor Alg eo W a Ku ep rab st B n, iA uri Em rab e ka rab Sa Y dA Eg ian gu ite Syr Lea Un Ecological footprint Total biocapacity Ecological (deficit) or reserve Source: Authors’ compilation, based on Global Footprint Initiative 2010. BOX S2.1 Integrated Land and Water Management in Arab Countries The Lakhdar watershed in Morocco and the saline water is channeled into pans for wadis in the northern part of the Republic growing commercially profitable shrimp or of Yemen incorporate natural forests and fish species. The water from the shrimp and woodlands as part of microcatchment vege- fish farms, enriched with organic matters, tation management with active involvement is channeled into large farms to grow salt- of local communities. Actively preventing tolerant Salicornia species and mangroves. and controlling the spread of invasive and The leaves and small branches can be fed to alien species to reduce land and water deg- livestock such as goats and camels, whereas radation has helped improve food security, the roots help to stabilize the soil and reduce increase water supplies, and provide biofuels. erosion. Meanwhile, water evaporation from An example of an integrated approach is vast stretches of seawater farms will increase one used by Masdar Institute in the United humidity. The long-term objective of this Arab Emirates. The system consists of a farming system is to transform the coastal shrimp and fish production facility, a man- region through sustainable and natural grove forest, wetland systems, and a field means: increased humidity and enriched soil of the salt-tolerant Salicornia species, which will eventually be able to support freshwater can also be used as a biofuel. Seawater or farming. Sources: MIT 2011; World Bank 2009. 158 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries tem services or live in ecologically and eco- Oman, Syria, and the Republic of Yemen) nomically marginal areas in rangelands and (UNEP 2007). coasts. With increasing pressures and a chang- ing climate, ecosystem recovery may take lon- Incorporate Climate Risk in Management ger and may further reduce the capacity of Plans and Policies and Strategies communities to manage these increasing risks. The adaptation options discussed in the sec- Areas under conservation and sustainable use tions that follow can help communities manage and other valuable and unique ecosystems— the multiple and increasing risks. land, coastal, and marine—must be screened for added risks from climate change, and re- sponses must be incorporated into manage- Better Data and Knowledge for Improved ment plans. Biosphere reserves and Ramsar Management sites (see table S2.2) that are of value to culture, Information on ecosystem services and genetic livelihoods, and tourism (see chapter 6) and diversity is weak and needs to be strengthened. that are important for fisheries also need to un- Most of the available information is only for dergo climate risk screening and include cli- birds, mammals, and higher plants. The infor- mate change in management plans. The best mation needs to be shared across political adaptation options are often to reduce pres- boundaries. Economic valuation of nonmarket sures from other sources, especially in the case benefits and off-site effects on soil erosion and of degraded lands and polluted or overexploited water resources would help highlight the val- freshwater, coastal, and marine areas. Sustain- ues and costs to ecosystems and ecosystem ser- able management under climate change should vices and would provide a mechanism for in- be included in strategic environmental assess- corporating biodiversity and ecosystem ments (SEAs). Tools and approaches, such as services into the national budget (through valuation of ecosystem services and payments “green accounting”). for environmental services in SEAs, could help integrate biodiversity, ecosystem services, and adaptation in decision making (TEEB 2010). Enhance Conservation and Sustainable Use Use Ecosystem-Based Adaptation to There is a need to conserve genetic resources Increase Ecosystem Resiliency and knowledge and practices used to grow an- cestral and older varieties of crops and fruit Ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) is the use of trees. Of the region’s known species, 10 per- ecosystems to protect and sustain human lives cent are listed as threatened (UNEP 2007), and and livelihoods. EBA can be a cost-effective unique ecosystems that are vulnerable to cli- measure and a substitute for more expensive mate change need to be conserved and used infrastructure investments. EBA can also ben- sustainably. Unique ecosystems include desert efit poor, marginalized, and indigenous com- oases, cedar forests (such as those in Lebanon munities by maintaining ecosystem services and the Syrian Arab Republic), mangroves and access to resources during prolonged (such as those in Qatar), inland reed marshes droughts (GTZ and MARH 2007; World Bank (such as those in Egypt and Iraq), and high 2009). Conserving floodplain forests, coastal mountain ranges (such as those in Jordan, and inland wetlands, mangroves, coral reefs, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Have a Role in Climate Adaptation 159 barrier beaches, and sand dunes as protection recognized and included in decision making. Na- from storm surges and flooding are examples of tional development plans and sectoral strat- EBA. Some of these services will provide other egies need to consider biodiversity and eco- benefits, such as helping maintain nursery, system services in present and future feeding, and breeding grounds for fisheries, adaptation options. Better valuation of eco- wildlife, and other species on which human system services and market and nonmarket populations depend. mechanisms can help promote recognition of biodiversity and ecosystem services and inform the discussion on trade-offs. Blend Finance to Meet the Added Costs • National and international efforts and inte- Clearly, additional funding will be necessary to grated land and water management are needed manage climate risks and develop the resilience for the conservation of globally important biodi- or adaptive capacity of ecosystems. Market- versity and threatened or unique species and eco- based instruments, such as payments for eco- systems. 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CHAPTER 4 Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate Agriculture Is Essential for the Economy, Food Security, and Livelihoods in the Region This chapter describes how farming systems in the water-scarce Arab region are vulnerable to climate change with mixed, largely negative im- pacts until 2050 and more pronounced negative impacts after that. This vulnerability has major implications for food security as well as for the lives and livelihoods of the 150 million people in rural areas whose in- comes rely predominantly on natural resources. Agriculture has played a fundamental role in the history of the Middle East and North Africa. Arab countries contain important sites of early settled agriculture and are centers of the origin and diversity of several major cereal and legume crops. The Middle East is also known for the early domestication of sheep and goats and for innovation in agricultural, water storage, and transport methods to facilitate agriculture between the 4th and 11th century CE, when many new crops and technologies were introduced from the Far East. To effectively adapt to increasing climate variability and change while maintaining productive agriculture for both food security and livelihoods, Arab countries will once again need to in- vest significantly in agricultural innovation and technology. The adaptation challenge in rural livelihoods will be complex as more than 34 percent of the region’s rural population is poor—ranging from 8 percent in Tunisia to over 80 percent in Sudan. With rural unemploy- ment averaging about 13 percent—although rates are much higher for youth, ranging from 26 to 53 percent—finding alternative income sources will be difficult (Christensen 2007, 67, 73; Dixon and Gulliver 2001, 84; Photograph by Dorte Verner 163 164 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries IFAD 2010b). In the poorest nations of the region (Mauritania, Somalia, Sudan, and the Republic of Yemen), rural poverty is already chronic and widespread. Elsewhere in the Arab region, poverty mainly affects three high-risk categories: households headed by women (see chapter 7), the landless, and farm laborers. Given the limited assets of these vulnerable groups, adaptation strategies will need to include different forms of safety nets to avoid any further deterioration in conditions that have already led to over one-fifth of the region’s children under five years old being stunted, and rural children are almost twice as likely to be underweight as urban children (Christensen 2007, 66; IFAD 2010b). Food security concerns continue to dominate discussions by policy makers even under current climate conditions, with questions being raised as to whether an increasing reliance on international markets is sufficient to ensure stable access to affordable food supplies for their peo- ple. The issue brings geopolitical as well as economic issues to the fore- front. Any global rises in food price or volatility under a changing climate scenario will affect all Arab countries because of their dependence on imported food, but in particular the oil-importing Arab countries because food and oil prices tend to rise in parallel. Although these major concerns seem challenging, this chapter will outline a wealth of adaptation options that can also contribute to sustain- able and equitable agricultural growth and rural poverty reduction. More marginal systems have fewer options, and some may become less produc- tive or, even in the longer term, go out of production. Governments need to support the development of agricultural production under a changing climate and to prepare segments of the rural population for transition to alternative livelihoods. This agenda of adaptation governance can strengthen household-level food security for many and if combined with improvements in markets, safety nets and risk management can help meet broader concerns in this field. Agriculture Is under Stress from Water Scarcity and Population Growth Climate and Farming Systems As described in chapter 2, most of the region is arid to hyperarid, with both rainfed and irrigated agricultural systems contributing to overall productivity. The temperate, higher rainfall areas have a Mediterranean climate, which typically has long dry summers and mild wet winters. These areas account for less than 10 percent of the land area but nearly Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 165 TABLE 4.1 Principal Farming Systems of the Arab Region Share of the Share of the region’s land region’s agricultural Prevalence of Farming system area (%) population (%) Main livelihoods poverty Irrigated 2 17 Fruit, vegetables, cash crops Moderate Highland, mixed 7 30 Cereals, legumes, sheep, off-farm work Extensive Rainfed, mixed 2 18 Tree crops, cereals, legumes, off-farm work Moderate Dryland, mixed 4 14 Cereals, sheep, off-farm work Extensive Pastoral 23 9 Camels, sheep, off-farm work Extensive Agropastoral: millet or sorghum — — Cereals, pulses, livestock Extensive Cereals or root crops, mixed — — Cereals, root crops, cattle Limited Arid zones 62 5 Camels, sheep, off-farm work Limited Source: Annex 4A. Note: — = not available. half of the agricultural population. The dry areas, with rainfall under 300 millimeters a year, account for 90 percent of the land but less than 30 percent of the agricultural population. Large-scale irrigated areas cover less than 2 percent of the land area but account for 17 percent of the ag- ricultural population. Farming systems are diverse, determined largely by geography, climate, and natural resource endowments (table 4.1 and an- nex 4A) (Dixon and Gulliver 2001, 83–84, 87–91). As precipitation falls over most of the Maghreb, Mashreq, and many of the least developed countries in winter, rainfed crops are grown in the winter months, maturing for harvest generally in spring and early summer. The main rainfed crops are wheat, barley, legumes, olives, grapes and other fruits, and vegetables. Grain production accounts for two-thirds of the cultivated area (against a world average of 46 percent). Yields for rain- fed crops vary widely depending largely on the interaction of the crops’ genetic makeup (genotype), soil, and cultural and environmental factors. Irrigated areas are cultivated year-round, with peak demand for irriga- tion water during the dry summer months in the Mashreq and Maghreb, and in the cooler winters in the Gulf countries. Under irrigation, yields can be very good, for example, with yields of irrigated wheat in the Arab Republic of Egypt averaging 6.5 metric tons per hectare. A wide range of higher-value crops is grown. Fresh fruit and vegetable production ac- count for about 10 percent of the cropped area throughout the region, but the percentage is much higher in countries practicing intensive irri- gated agriculture (Egypt 20 percent, Jordan 28 percent, Lebanon 37 per- cent) and much less in the largely subsistence agricultural economies of Somalia (1 percent) and Sudan (1 percent) (Christensen 2007, 47, 49). 166 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Livestock is integrated in all farming systems, thus providing impor- tant synergies and complementarities between and within systems—from extensive pastoralism to feedlots in peri-urban agriculture. Milk, from both cows and goats, is an increasingly important commodity often based on feedlot production systems. Historically, agriculture has been an engine of growth in the region. With modernization and urbanization, the share of agriculture in re- gional gross domestic product (GDP) has dwindled, but the sector re- mains critical to primary production and is the mainstay of the rural economy. In 2005, agriculture contributed 13 percent to regional GDP, ranging from 2 percent in Jordan to over 30 percent in Sudan. Annual agricultural GDP per capita of the agricultural population av- erages about US$720, ranging from US$133 in the Republic of Yemen to US$1,100 in Tunisia. Throughout the region, agriculture contrib- utes about 20 percent of exports (Christensen 2007, 72; Dixon and Gulliver 2001, 87). With regard to people, farming is still an important occupation in some countries with 48 million (38 percent) engaged overall in the region; however, this figure masks a wide range: from less than 5 percent in Lebanon and the Gulf countries to more than 50 percent in Somalia, Sudan, and the Republic of Yemen (Christensen 2007, 70; Dixon and Gulliver 2001, 83; FAO 2010, chapter 1). Recent Trends: Agriculture Already under Stress Cultivable land is abundant but the main constraint is water. Aridity has meant that irrigation has been the principal path to intensification and is the largest water user (see chapter 3 for more details). Further expansion of irrigated production is likely to come largely from productivity gains, especially gains in water-use efficiency rather than from new supply de- velopment (Dixon and Gulliver 2001, 91ff). In general, pressure on land and water resources is expected to grow as populations continue to expand. Population pressure on resources is al- ready leading to environmental degradation and water shortages, and these trends will worsen if nothing changes. This demographic pressure will also increase dependence on imported food; the region already im- ports half its cereal calories, and this share will likely increase (Dixon and Gulliver 2001, 91). Rangelands have come under considerable stress. Growth in demand for fresh meat, linked to income growth, has been met by swelling live- stock populations, often supported by feed subsidies on imported grains. As a result, livestock populations are today well beyond the carrying ca- pacity of the rangelands. Older systems of rangeland management have not adapted. Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 167 Productivity, Technology, and Innovation After two decades of little or no growth in agricultural productivity (1960–80), the subsequent decades (1980–2000) witnessed a strong aver- age growth rate of 2 percent per annum (see figures 4.1 and 4.2). Al- FIGURE 4.1 Average Cereal Yield 3,500 3,000 2,500 Cereal yields (kg/ha) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Maghreb The Gulf countries Mashreq Least developed countries countries countries Source: Authors’ compilation, based on AQUASTAT 2011. Note: Ha = hectare. FIGURE 4.2 Average Vegetable/Melon Yield 35,000 30,000 Cereal yields (kg/ha) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Maghreb The Gulf countries Mashreq Least developed countries countries countries Source: Authors’ compilation, based on AQUASTAT 2011. Note: Ha = hectare. 168 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries though the causes are complex and vary by country, variables attributed to this strong growth include more intensive irrigation systems (particu- larly notable in the Gulf countries) and an increase in production of higher-value crops following the start of trade liberalization in the 1980s. In recent years, cereals production has accelerated with improvements in the terms of trade for cereals and because of rapidly expanding livestock production. This growth is not, however, shared across the entire region (figures 4.1 and 4.2). In some countries, productivity improvements have virtually ceased because access to improved technologies and support ser- vices has dwindled, which is particularly noticeable in the least developed countries. Research has made a substantial contribution to yield improve- ments, but an increased focus is needed on efficient water use and vulner- able systems. Market orientation Agriculture in the Arab countries has become predominantly market ori- ented and commercialized as it responds to fast-growing demand from urban markets for higher-value products. In the Mediterranean coun- tries, market linkages with demand from Europe and formal trade ar- rangements with the European Union have provided profitable market outlets for fresh fruits and vegetables. Many households have diversified into related off-farm business lines, such as catering, tourism, and so forth. Policies, institutions, and public goods Countries across the region have made considerable investment in irriga- tion, rural infrastructure, and farmer services, such as research and exten- sion. Agriculture has responded with the rapid growth rates noted above; however, some components of public policy have introduced structural distortions in the sector that have reduced its resilience and sustainability, notably the following: • Earlier water policies allocated water to agriculture. Now water is be- coming more valuable for other purposes, but mechanisms for reallo- cating water between sectors are lacking. At the same time, the lack of demand management through market mechanisms or rationing has led to low water-use efficiency in many agricultural uses. • Lack of regulation of groundwater extraction has led to depletion of the resource. • Food security policies have necessitated agricultural production in some areas that has resulted in negative impacts on land and water resources. Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 169 • Incentive structures favoring commercial and irrigated production have disfavored research and investment in rainfed farming. Recently, countries in the region have taken a more integrated apprecia- tion of agriculture’s role in the economies, ecologies, and societies of the region, including (a) the value of conserving ecosystems; (b) the environ- mental services provided by rural areas, such as water filtration and soil conservation; and (c) sociocultural services, such as cultural heritage or traditional agriculture. Climate Change Affects Farming Systems and Rural Livelihoods The Arab region will likely be highly vulnerable to climate change (as chapters 2 and 3 have illustrated), which will accentuate the already- severe water scarcity and increase the existing high levels of aridity. The main climate change impacts on agriculture are summarized in annex 4B, with the most important exposures given in table 4.2. Expected Impacts on Agricultural Water and Farming All farming systems will be exposed to increased aridity and to declines in water availability (table 4.3). All systems are sensitive to these changes, especially rainfed systems without access to reliable irrigation sources. TABLE 4.2 Exposure: Expected Climate Changes Least developed Maghreb Mashreq Gulf countries countries • Overall a hotter, drier • Overall a hotter, • Relatively uniform • Changes in river region drier region warming flows • Temperature increase • Higher temperatures • Possible increase in • Variable changes in of up to 5ºC in both summer and summer precipi- wetness and aridity, • Decrease in winter tation, but highly with areas nearer precipitation, fewer • Generally drier, uncertain and the tropics rainy days especially in the localized becoming wetter • More droughts, rainy (winter) season • More severe rainfalls • More severe rainfalls especially in summer • Rainfall drop below • Seawater intrusion • Overall increase in growth threshold aridity, with 20% less for some areas rainfall • Seawater intrusion • Seawater intrusion and salinization, particularly in Egypt Source: Authors’ compilation. 170 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE 4.3 Climate Change Impacts on Farming Systems of the Arab Region Exposure: expected Sensitivity: likely impacts Farming system climate-related changes on farming systems Irrigated • Increased temperatures • More water stress • Reduced supply of surface irrigation • Increased demand for irrigation and water water transfer • Dwindling groundwater recharge • Reduced yields when temperatures are • Loss of production in low-lying coastal too high areas • More difficulty in agricultural planning • Salinization from reduced leaching • Reduction in cropping intensity Highland mixed • Increased aridity • Reduction in yields • Greater risk of drought • Reduction in cropping intensity • Possible lengthening of the growing • Increased demand for irrigation period • Reduced supply of irrigation water Rainfed mixed • Increased aridity • Reduction in yields • Greater risk of drought • Reduction in cropping intensity • Reduced supply of irrigation water • Increased demand for irrigation • Loss of production in low-lying coastal • More difficulty in agricultural planning areas Dryland mixed • Increased aridity • System very vulnerable to declining • Greater risk of drought rainfall; some lands may revert to rangeland • Reduced supply of irrigation water • Increased demand for irrigation Pastoral • Increased aridity • Very vulnerable system, where • Greater risk of drought desertification may reduce carrying capacity significantly • Reduced water for livestock and fodder • Increase in nonfarm activities, exit from farming, migration Source: Annex 4B. More marginal systems will likely be pushed further to or beyond their margins; some of these lands may revert to pasture or may simply aban- don production. Water resources and irrigation Water availability is the key determinant of agricultural potential throughout the region, and climate change will affect that availability. In all regions, lower rainfall and higher temperatures will likely lead to a decline in soil-moisture availability to the plant roots and to decreased infiltration and runoff, so that groundwater recharge and river flows will likely diminish. This reduction will affect both rainfed and irrigated pro- Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 171 duction with net crop irrigation requirements estimated to increase by 5 to 20 percent by 2080 (Fischer et al. 2007). Demand for increased irriga- tion may push up the ratio of irrigation withdrawals to available renew- able water resources. Crop and livestock yields and production These changes in agroclimatic conditions will affect production, although the pace and direction of change are far from certain, and they will inevi- tably vary considerably across locations. For example, in the longer run, yields of key rainfed cereals may drop, with projected maize yields falling by 15 percent and wheat yields by 5 percent over much of the region by 2050, particularly in the Mashreq and Maghreb countries (Iglesias and Rosenzweig 2010). Another study (Breisinger et al. 2010) suggests that cereal yields may still increase on average at least until 2050 (see figure 4.3), but by less than what would have been the case in the absence of climate change. Overall, the most likely picture that emerges for cereals is threefold: (a) a combination of improved incentives because of rising commodity prices together with application of productivity-enhancing measures will keep yields rising to midcentury, after which they will begin to drop off; FIGURE 4.3 Average Cereal Yields in the Middle East and North Africa: Historic Climate and Alternative Scenarios, 2025 and 2050 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 Metric tons per ha 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 2025 2050 No climate change CSIRO circulation model Hadley circulation model NCAR circulation model Source: Breisinger et al. 2010. Note: Hadley, CSIRO, and NCAR are different circulation models. CSIRO = Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization; NCAR = National Center for Atmospheric Research; ha = hectare. 172 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE 4.4 Projected Rate of Annual Change for Rainfed Wheat under One Climate Change Scenario Egypt, North Syrian Arab Morocco Arab Rep. Africa Republic Iraq Yield: annual rate of increase or decrease (%) Baseline, 2010 5.4 1.4 5.4 1.3 4.6 2020 1.2 2.4 2.0 0.7 0.7 2050 0.2 1.4 0.0 −0.3 −0.3 Area: annual rate of increase or decrease (%) Baseline, 2010 0.0 0.5 0 −0.1 −0.1 2020 −0.1 0.1 −0.5 −0.2 −0.2 2050 −1.0 −0.7 −1.0 −1.1 −1.1 Forecast production (thousand metric tons) Baseline, 2010 4,634 4,847 n.a. 4,585 1,851 2020 5,322 6,511 n.a. 5,106 2,040 2050 5,622 10,848 n.a. 5,162 2,133 Source: International Food Policy Research Institute crop models (using CSI A1B), taken from the following International Food Policy Research Institute website on December 19, 2011: http://www.ifpri.org/publica tion/food-security-farming-and-climate-change-2050. Note: n.a. = not applicable. (b) natural resource and climate change pressures will contribute to a slow fall in the production area from 2010; and (c) overall output will rise in most major producing countries, but after 2050 production of wheat and maize across the region will start to decline (Breisinger et al. 2010). The International Food Policy Research Institute’s series of global crop mod- els supports this assessment (see table 4.4 for the example of rainfed wheat in a number of Middle East and North African countries) (Breisinger et al. 2010; World Bank 2007). An element of uncertainty is introduced by the expected increased variability and increased frequency of extreme events, especially of drought but also of destructive storms, floods, and heat waves. These fac- tors will reduce yields in the year of incidence and may also create risk aversion and disincentives to investment, thereby making planning at household, local, and national levels more challenging. Yields of several economically important fruit species (olives, apples, pistachios and other nuts, and pomegranates) may also suffer reduced yields or crop failure if winter temperatures are too high. Climate change will also increase risks for livestock production, par- ticularly for the intensive feedlots that are becoming more common. The likely rise of animal pests and diseases under climate change could affect all animal production, but especially intensive systems. The lack of prior conditioning to extreme weather can result in major losses in confined Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 173 livestock feedlots. In addition, animal nutrition models have shown that higher temperatures can limit dairy milk yield in relation to feed. The following section explores the adaptation options available for rural households, both in agriculture and in the broader food security and live- lihood contexts. A Range of Adaptation Options Are Available Farmers Have Many Adaptation Options This section examines a range of likely farmer responses to specific cli- mate change and variability impacts. At least some technology and insti- tutional options that can help maintain productivity are known and either are accessible to farmers or could be made accessible. However, the strength of these adaptive measures declines in inverse proportion to the sensitivity of the system to climate change. The most marginal and af- fected systems—dryland and pastoral systems—are those for which the fewest solutions are available. Without policy and program intervention, these systems will most likely have the greatest changes to agricultural production and rural impoverishment. Likely Farmer Adaptations in Agriculture1 Farmers are likely to respond to rising temperatures by a mix of changes in varieties of crops and, where available, by recourse to supplementary irrigation. Climate change is expected to result in warmer temperatures and increased aridity across most Arab countries. Farmers may be able to manage risks with more drought-tolerant or shorter-cycle varieties and (where available) supplementary irrigation, or by switching their crop- ping pattern. Soil moisture conservation techniques, such as changed till- age and mulching practices, intercropping, and shade planting, will also be important (see figure 4.4). In predominantly rainfed systems, farmers may use conservation till- age and rainwater harvesting techniques to compensate for reduced soil moisture. Rainwater harvesting techniques have been practiced in the rainfed systems of the region for centuries. Technologies range from simple in-field structures diverting water to a planting pit, through struc- tures in the catchment that divert runoff to storage or run-on fields, to permanent terraces, or to dams (FAO 2011a). Rainwater harvesting can boost yields by two to three times more than conventional rainfed agri- culture, especially when combined with improved varieties and minimum tillage methods that conserve water. 174 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 4.4 Mixed Crops Source: ICBA. Note: Shown are annual pearl millet and sorghum varieties that are salt- and drought-tolerant and provide both forage and food for animals and humans, respectively, with many of them multicut. Increasing unpredictability of rainfall suggests that farmers may adapt by using supplementary irrigation, growing drought-tolerant or shorter- cycle crops, or lengthening the growing season. Unpredictable rainfall may translate into delayed planting, with a negative impact on yields. If planting is delayed by more than a few weeks, crops may not mature or they may fail altogether or produce reduced yields. In addition, unpre- dictable rainfall may lead to spells of drought during the growing season, resulting in yield losses. Farmers can use more supplementary irrigation and drought-tolerant or shorter-cycle crops or change their cropping calendar. The impact of delayed rains could be partly offset by using supplementary irrigation early in the season, by growing shorter-cycle crops or varieties, or by tak- ing advantage of warmer average temperatures to extend the growing season into autumn, especially where supplementary irrigation is avail- able. Farmers may also switch to fast-growing crops, such as maize, that can be planted later. Where crops encounter stress in dry periods after planting, farmers may seek to plant drought-tolerant varieties. Where rainfall becomes more concentrated, farmers may practice more surface irrigation and water harvesting. Concentration of rainfalls Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 175 reduces water available in the soil and therefore reduces evapotranspira- tion and plant growth, but it also increases runoff and surface-water avail- ability. Such concentration may thus reduce the productivity of rainfed agriculture but may increase the availability of water for irrigation and water harvesting. Farmers can seek to develop more supplementary sur- face irrigation and water-harvesting infrastructure to capture the in- creased runoff. Climate change impacts may reduce soil fertility and increase soil ero- sion, but farming practices can mitigate these impacts and maintain soil health. Soils throughout the region are generally low in natural fertility, and climate change will further deplete fertility through erosion and a decline in organic matter. A wide range of soil conservation measures is available. Soil fertility can be restored through integrated soil fertility management, including manuring and crop rotations. Inclusion of nitro- gen-fixing legumes in the rotation improves the nutrient balance in the soil (see figure 4.5). Farmers may seek to further diversify their mixed farming systems with crop rotation, intercropping, and agroforestry. This diversity will reduce risks and will also allow restoration of soil nutrients. Chemical fertilizers can also play a role. To conserve moisture and prevent erosion through runoff, farmers may also combine struc- tural measures like terraces with vegetative or agronomic measures (FAO 2011b, 5.3.1). Declining groundwater availability may cause farmers to return to tra- ditional agricultural and water-harvesting techniques. Climate change may bring reduced groundwater recharge. However, reserves are already being run down, and adaptation options are essential whatever the cli- mate change outcome. Improvements to the productivity and profitabil- ity of traditional rainfed and terrace cultivation and of water-harvesting schemes may offer some possibilities. Declining water availability and unpredictable rainfall may sharpen the need for efficient groundwater and surface irrigation, especially sup- plementary irrigation. Farmers’ likely response to increasing aridity is to improve the productivity of water use through more efficient groundwa- ter and surface irrigation, especially supplementary irrigation. Ground- water will continue to play a key buffer role in maintaining optimal soil moisture, and this role will grow with increasing climatic variability. Groundwater productivity can be improved by conjunctive use and by adopting precision techniques such as drip irrigation, combined with ag- ronomic measures such as fertigation—the application of water-soluble nutrients through irrigation—and protected greenhouse agriculture. Switches in the cropping pattern can also increase the profitability of groundwater use. The scope for improving efficiency in surface irrigation is enormous. A conventional gravity-fed small-scale irrigation system is 176 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 4.5 Drought-Tolerant Plants Source: ICBA. Note: Drought-tolerant plants, such as cowpea, guar, and lablab, enrich the soil by nitrogen fixation in root nodules through symbiotic association with rhizobia. typically 35–45 percent efficient. Reducing those losses through lined canals or piped conveyance and through drip, bubbler, and sprinkler ir- rigation can increase an irrigation system’s efficiency up to 70–80 per- cent. Farmers can do much to improve in-field water efficiency through better irrigation scheduling and improvements in agronomic efficiency, for example, changes in crops, cropping calendar, and husbandry prac- tices (FAO 2011b, 5.2.2). Combined changes in water availability and temperature may encour- age farmers to switch to more adaptable cropping patterns; to “conjunc- tive management” of rainfall, surface water, and groundwater; and to ef- ficient protected agriculture and pressurized irrigation. If aridity increases, farmers can switch to more adaptable crops (figure 4.6). A first level of response could be to switch between crops with differing responses to climate change within an agroecologically homogeneous “crop group,” for example, switching between fava beans and lentils within the legume crop group. The most prevalent crop switch will likely be from wheat to barley. This switch will coincide with a switch in farming systems from cereals production for human consumption to production of barley and Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 177 FIGURE 4.6 Various Date Palm Species Source: ICBA. Note: There are date palm species that are salt- and drought-tolerant and produce plentiful and delicious dates. straw as part of an integrated, semi-intensive production system of sheep and goat meat to satisfy rising domestic demand. The role of barley as an adaptation strategy is enhanced by the fact that even during very dry years when grain yields are minimal, straw production or “green graz- ing” for flocks remains a viable production alternative. Alternatively, farmers can switch to a different crop group. For ex- ample, where temperate fruit yields are affected by failure to meet vernal- ization requirements, farmers may begin to plant subtropical fruits like citrus in new zones and elevations that are less exposed to frost occurring from climate change. Water stress may best be handled by conjunctive management of rainfall and surface water and groundwater irrigation, and by the precision irrigation techniques described above. Growing salinization will prompt changes in cropping patterns and soil and water management. Salinization will likely increase in coastal areas because of the effect of rising sea levels and seawater intrusion into aquifers. Farmers generally may also use more saline water as depleting aquifers become saltier and water scarcity drives development of more saline water sources. Farmers will seek out more salt-tolerant crops, use freshwater to blend with saline sources, and use off-season freshwater sources to leach salt residues in the soil profile (box 4.1). 178 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 4.1 Brackish Water Sources for Biosaline Agriculture Research shows the value of brackish water been screened and evaluated for drought sources for biosaline agriculture (Taha and and salt tolerance and is being used as for- Ismail 2010; Taha, Ismail, and Dakheel age and food from central Asia to North 2005). In research commissioned by the Africa. International Fund for Agricultural Devel- The study showed that sufficient saline opment, the International Center for Bio- and brackish water resources exist to irri- saline Agriculture analyzed the potential gate up to 330,000 hectares. These find- use of saline and brackish water resources in ings are particularly relevant to the Arab Arab countries for animal feed production. region, given the increasing salinization of For example, sorghum, shown here, has groundwater. Source: ICBA. The likely farmer responses discussed above concern the application of existing technology in order to adapt farming systems to climate change effects. Empirical evidence shows that these adaptations are already under way (see box 4.2). Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 179 BOX 4.2 Yemeni Farmers Grasp the Challenge of Adapting to Climate Change A study found that most Yemeni farmers (77 percent) knew about climate change and thought that it could affect their farms (64 percent). Most farmers thought that climate change was mani- fested through increases in average temperature, variability and irregularity of rainfall, and higher frequency of extreme events, such as droughts. These views concur with those of climate sci- entists. Many farmers (37 percent) said that they had changed their agricultural practices in the past to cope with adverse climate conditions, and more than half (54 percent) thought they should start now to adjust their farm activity to cope with possible future adverse climate conditions. The options they proposed consisted of a mixture of traditional and modern farming practices, such as changing cultivation practices, rehabilitating terraces and spate irrigation systems, switching to higher-value crops, and increas- ing the scale of farm operations. The study concludes: “Climate change may be a fruitful source of innovation in that it inspires old and new remedies, more respectful of the environment, more pre- occupied with recovering traditional land management techniques and plant varieties, and in general more attentive to the needs and the capabilities of rural communities.” Source: Scandizzo and Paolantonio 2010. Institutional and Technological Developments Should Advance Together Institutional adaptation needs to accompany technological innovation as they are mutually supportive. Table 4.5 offers some examples from the different farming systems of how they might go hand in hand in developing adaptation strategies. Some institutional adaptation can oc- cur spontaneously at the local level through, for example, farmers’ or- ganizations for better catchment management, collaborative ap- proaches to groundwater management, and community management of pasture. Some adaptation strategies require partnerships with gov- ernment, decentralization of irrigation management to water users’ as- sociations, water demand management, payments for ecosystem ser- 180 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE 4.5 Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change Impact in the Main Farming Systems of the Arab Region Farming Selected examples of likely farmer adaptations available system (access to technology, institutional adaptive capacity, and a further research agenda) Irrigated Technology: (a) increased (or substituted) supply through treated wastewater, saline, and drainage water reuse (and possibly further diversions); (b) improved water-use efficiency at both system level and field level; (c) amended soil fertility by integrated nutrient management; (d) improved water management to reduce salinity; and (e) agronomic and postharvest improvements for more income per drop Institutional adaptation measures: (a) decentralization of irrigation and drainage management to water users’ associations and demand management measures (including the use of financial measures) and (b) participatory approaches to groundwater management Further research agenda: (a) more sustainable land and water management techniques and (b) integrated nutrient management Highland mixed Technology: (a) watershed management, (b) conservation tillage, (c) better integration of crops and livestock, and (d) agronomic and postharvest improvements Institutional adaptation measures: (a) participatory approaches and equitable sharing of benefits; (b) compensation for externalities and downstream benefits (payment for ecosystem services); and (c) reduction in overgrazing through more equitable regulation and control of common grazing resources—with participation, plus investment in water points, and elimination of subsidies on animal feed Rainfed mixed Technology: (a) improved management of water, (b) terrace restoration and soil contouring, and (c) agronomic and postharvest improvements Institutional adaptation measures: (a) land consolidation, (b) community-based watershed management, and (c) support mechanisms like payments for ecosystem services Further research agenda: (a) technologies on crop-livestock integration, and (b) risk management Dryland mixed Technology: (a) windbreaks, water harvesting, water management and conservation, (b) zero tillage, (c) together with agronomic and postharvest improvements Institutional adaptation measures: (a) communal land and water management, (b) participatory research and development, and (c) financial support mechanisms, like payments for ecosystem services Further research agenda: (a) varieties with shorter growing period, drought resistance, and improved grain and straw quality; (b) new varieties and techniques, such as intercropping; and (c) systems research on crop-livestock interaction and resource conservation, with a focus on risk reduction and sustainability Pastoral Technology: (a) intensified livestock productivity and (b) diversification Institutional adaptation measures: (a) communal grazing management and (b) financial support mechanisms, like payments for ecosystem services Sources: Christensen 2007; Dixon and Gulliver 2001, 87–91. vices to compensate for externalities, or land consolidation. Box 4.3 illustrates the combination of technology, institutional development, and community outreach in Abu Dhabi that results in a more water- sustainable agricultural system. Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 181 BOX 4.3 Abu Dhabi Government Has Already Taken Steps Toward More Water-Sustainable Agricultural Production In Abu Dhabi, the agriculture sector, which uses more than 70 percent of the water resources, is being remodeled. Subsidies sup- porting traditional agricultural production are being phased out; greenhouse-based agriculture is being encouraged; new well drill- ing is being limited; and farmers are being redirected to grow crops with less water demand. In October 2010, the Abu Dhabi Food Control Authority withdrew subsidies for growing Rhodes grass, a forage crop with high water demand, in the western agricultural region. Alternate forage crops are being introduced and adapted to meet local demands. Extension support has been set up through the Farmers’ Services Centre, which is demonstrating model farms based on salt- and drought-tolerant species and efficient irrigation methods to ensure sustainable agriculture. Farmers’ markets have been established at various sites in the urban centers of Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and value-added products such as weekly vegetable boxes are made available for sale. Source: Authors’ compilation. Adopting Strategies to Support Food Security For many countries, food security policies have promoted both the devel- opment of agricultural production and import strategies. The drivers are as much political as they are economic, with policies that encourage do- mestic food production by tilting the incentive structure in favor of this. This causes economic losses to the nation and possibly increases food insecurity of producing households by reducing their potential incomes. Although no Arab country maintains food self-sufficiency today, decision makers have the perception that a basic level of internal food security is required to limit the shocks of global food price volatility. Such policies have various trade-offs, particularly with respect to the use of scarce water resources. Considering the region’s environmental conditions, the im- pact of food shocks cannot be completely isolated. Box 4.4 illustrates the findings of a recent study of such trade-offs in Morocco. Following the global food price shocks of 2008, policy analysis for the region has emphasized the need for the following: 182 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries • Improving data and strengthening the capacity for evidence-based de- cision making • Protecting vulnerable households nationwide by strengthening safety nets (via cash transfer programs, labor-intensive employment pro- grams, and health and nutrition interventions, with a particular focus on women and children), education, and family planning • Protecting rural households and contributing to the national food sup- ply and price stability by formulating a rural livelihoods strategy fo- cused principally on enhancing agricultural and off-farm incomes and production through investment in research and development, rural infrastructure, and market development; and • Reducing exposure to market supply and price risks by 1. Improving supply-chain efficiency by improving trade in agricultural commodities through global, regional, and bilateral agreements and promoting efficient domestic food distribution and retailing 2. Introducing cost-effective risk management instruments calibrated to the risk assessed, for example, by (a) establishing food reserves or buffer BOX 4.4 Trade-Offs between Self-Sufficiency and Food Security in Morocco A recent study shows that Morocco could, in theory, achieve 85 percent self-sufficiency in cereals at current yield levels and that full self-sufficiency could be achieved if yields were to rise by 40 percent. However, this self-sufficiency would come at a high cost—about US$10 billion between 2008 and 2022—through rev- enue forfeited by not producing higher-value crops. If Morocco produced instead high-value crops, the US$10 billion could be used to purchase a much greater quantity of imported cereals. In addition, production of higher-value crops would create far more agricultural employment for landless laborers than cereals produc- tion would. Sources: Lampietti et al. 2011; Magnan et al. 2011. Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 183 stocks to help stabilize prices and smooth consumption fluctua- tions, (b) forward contracting, (c) employing financial hedging products, and (d) building in risk management provisions to bilat- eral and multilateral agreements 3. Promoting and supporting regional and global responses to protect against price volatility, including (a) pressure to curtail and reform biofuel policies and subsidies, (b) establishing regional or global grain re- serves for rapid market intervention, and (c) setting up an interna- tional working group to monitor trade and trigger action (Breis- inger et al. 2010; Lampietti et al. 2011; McDonnell and Ismail 2011). Food security strategies have to be adapted to the nature of the risks. Table 4.6 provides an outline for risk assessment under climate change. Annex 4F provides a checklist of possible options. TABLE 4.6 Food Security Strategy Options under Climate Change Main food Possible impact Country characteristics Examples security risks of climate change Principal strategic responses Poorer countries with • Mauritania • Rural malnutrition • Intensified risk • Safety nets, education, family vulnerable populations • Somalia and famine planning dependent on farming • Rural livelihoods strategy • Sudan focused on agricultural • Yemen, Rep. productivity and risk management • Bilateral and multilateral agreements for food aid Middle-income countries that • Maghreb and • Price spikes • Long-term increase • Safety nets, education, family want moderate food prices Mashreq countries • Difficult access and in global food planning for their citizens and to affordability for prices • Rural livelihoods strategy maintain a viable rural poorer rural areas • Reduced focused on agricultural sector and households production and productivity and risk incomes for rural management, off-farm, and so people on • Improving supply-chain efficiency Better-off countries requiring • Oil-exporting • Geopolitical risk • Limited • Improving supply-chain assurance of food supplies countries of the efficiency Gulf region • Risk management instruments Source: Authors’ compilation. 184 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Adopting Strategies to Support Rural Livelihoods Agricultural income is by far the largest source of overall rural house- hold income. Rural household-level livelihood strategies will need to adapt to climate impact on agriculture and agricultural income. Table 4.7 lists some options at the household level, whereas annex 4E gives examples of national-level possibilities, which are discussed later in this section. Farm incomes Where water, working capital, and markets are available, farmers will likely continue the trend away from production of staples toward higher- value crops like fruits, vegetables, and flowers, which give the highest return to the scarcest factor—water. Fortunately, markets for these prod- ucts expand with urbanization, demographic growth, and rising incomes. However, rising preference for meat and dairy products will pose a chal- lenge since they are water intensive. TABLE 4.7 Strategies and Actions for Improved Rural Livelihoods at the Household Level Measure Action Potential result Increase returns from agriculture • Develop access to markets • Maximization of income and improve marketing generated for food produced • Grow high-value crops • Increased income from • Develop downstream value agriculture added, for example, through • Further income for rural food processing and livelihoods packaging Increase additional income • Develop household industries • Additional income from sources • Develop forestry resources manufacturing of craft items or other small-scale industry • Increased income and restoration or preservation of land Increase skills and education • Support attendance at • Increased possibilities of secure levels schools and other learning income from other opportunities employment opportunities • Increase use of information • Increased access to current and communication climate/price information and technology increased skills levels Sources: IFAD 2008, 2010b; McDonnell and Ismail 2011. Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 185 As markets develop, commercial farmers should be able to mange risks and to maintain—or even increase—their incomes, but smaller farmers and food deficit households may be affected negatively. The challenges for smaller farmers will be to become commercial farmers and to link into market circuits. The many millions of rural households with a food deficit may be affected negatively if food prices rise (see below), and conse- quently they will need coping strategies. Off-farm rural activities Clearly, not all farmers will be able to maintain their income from farm- ing, and many nonfarm rural households will also be vulnerable, so diver- sification of livelihoods will be an important adaptation option. Develop- ing new sources of income that are less climate dependent can improve household resilience and reduce risk. Such sources might include adding value to agricultural production by processing and marketing, as well as new household industries, such as crafts or tourism, or light manufactur- ing. These options may encounter barriers: (a) low rural demand for products and services, (b) difficulty of access to markets and information, (c) poor infrastructure base, and (d) inadequate access to finance. Public policies need to lift these barriers and create an enabling environment, and education and skills development could help support off-farm em- ployment (Christensen 2007, 50). Exit from farming and rural to urban migration In areas where rural livelihood options are inadequate, people will likely migrate, particularly during periods of climate stress like droughts and floods. This probability will be true for farm laborers, especially those who are economic migrants. Households will need to adapt roles and responsibilities, strengthen local social networks in both the receiving and exiting communities, and invest in skills and education to prepare for future environmental conditions. Public policies and programs will be needed to ease the transition. Effective Adaptation Requires Policy Reforms and Support Programs An important consideration is that farmers are appropriately supported and that farmer reactions contribute to—and do not undermine—larger national objectives of sustainable, equitable, and efficient development. Climate change serves to highlight a number of opportunities for better 186 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 4.7 A Conceptual Framework for Considering Integrated Adaptation Strategies for Addressing Agriculture, Water, Food Security, Rural Livelihoods, Gender, and Environment Issues Goals Reduce poverty and hunger Ensure environmental sustainability Drivers Resource base Outcomes and impacts Land, water, biodiversity, people Policies, Agricultural institutions, power production Population and diets Livelihood security Markets, roads (health, incomes, employment) Water infrastructure Agricultural systems Urbanization Food security Agricultural knowledge, Productivity science and technology Global integration Ecosystem resilience and trade and sustainability Water Environmental management Social and change gender equity Energy production and use Source: Molden 2007. integration between farmers, systems, and national levels of concern and action (see figure 4.7). Strategies can combine many different interven- tions ranging from on-ground local initiatives to advances in national infrastructure and developments in governance and institutional arrangements. Annex 4E provides a summary checklist of actions that governments may consider. Strategies should be developed with both technical and institutional measures (Clements et al. 2011; FAO 2010). Key areas of government support could include the following: • Ensuring that the policy and incentive framework facilitates adaptation • Providing information on likely climate change effects and impacts • Ensuring that adaptive technology is available Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 187 • Ensuring that farmers have access to the technical and financial re- sources necessary to change • Promoting appropriate institutional change, such as participatory local planning, farmer cooperatives, and farmer field schools • Integrating changes from the local level into higher-level planning, for example, for water resources planning and allocation at the basin scale, for development of irrigation, and so forth • Ensuring that externalities—particularly environmental impacts and upstream and downstream impacts—are managed equitably and sustainably • Conducting research to ensure that optimal productivity and risk man- agement measures are available • Facilitating development of appropriate forms of crop and weather insurance • Improving meteorological capacity and services geared toward farm- ers’ needs Aligning agriculture and water policies The agricultural sector affects and is affected by policies in other areas. Future policy and government program development will need to ensure that adaptation strategies are aligned to maximize benefits not only in food production but also in ecosystems services and rural incomes. A key area will be between water and agriculture policies (see figure 4.7). The frequent misalignment among government objectives in these two areas needs to be addressed. In Arab countries, water is widely overallocated, particularly to agri- culture, and competition and conflict between agricultural uses and higher-value municipal and industrial uses, already common, will inten- sify under climate change (see chapter 3 for greater analysis and potential adaptation strategies). Mechanisms may need to be devised for transfer- ring water from agriculture. A need exists to review allocative efficiency at the basin scale and to evolve the regulatory and market-based tools that will allow reallocation of water in a way that is adaptable under climate change (World Bank 2006b). By adjusting the incentive structure to recognize the scarcity of water and the need to use it to obtain the highest returns, demand management is an imperative (World Bank 2006b, 13). In effect, increasing supplies will also be essential, either through increased water productivity or use 188 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries of nonconventional water to satisfy the increasing demands for irrigation water. Particularly in water-scarce Arab countries, investment in reuse of treated wastewater and drainage water can offset water scarcity. Institu- tional arrangements, including a legal and regulatory framework, are needed for allocation and safe use, and protecting both humans and the environment. Programs have to be assessed at the level of overall basin efficiency and socioeconomic benefit. Egypt, Tunisia, and many of the Gulf countries are already managing successful programs (FAO 2011b; McDonnell and Ismail 2011; World Bank 2006a, 177). Finance The lack of access to finance by governments has limited the implementa- tion of adaptation strategies, although implementation has been improv- ing with the establishment of a number of international funds to support programs. A greater awareness is needed among Arab countries of how these funds may be accessed and used. Finance is important for adaptation strategies by helping households widen their economic opportunities, increase their asset base, and dimin- ish vulnerability to shocks. Such help will require the development of rural financial services, which can enhance social protection, particularly microcredit and savings and loans approaches (McDonnell and Ismail 2011; Saab 2009). Considerable success has been made with investments in communal infrastructure supported by social funds, such as those in Egypt and the Republic of Yemen. INDH (National Initiative for Human Development) in Morocco is a successful homegrown version of the same approach that is supporting agricultural projects, as well as community investments. Extension of these activities to communal investment in natural resource management, watersheds, irrigation development, and so forth, could support adaptation (Christensen 2007, 57). The trade in environmental services through payment for ecosystem services mechanisms has attracted interest and financing both within countries and from international investors. Payment for ecosystem ser- vices could be a key instrument for supporting climate change adaptation in the highland mixed and rainfed mixed systems (compensation for exter- nalities and downstream benefits of watershed management). It could also support conservation investments, like terracing, biodiversity conserva- tion, or the maintenance of traditional agricultural heritage in a number of systems, including dryland mixed and pastoral systems (FAO 2011b). One important innovation is the development of carbon markets with Dubai acting as a hub for a number of enterprises in this area. Another Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 189 possibility is to work within the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto protocol. That mechanism has been successful in financing some types of agricultural projects, such as methane capture or use of agricul- tural by-products as an energy source. Morocco and the United Arab Emirates already have agricultural projects in the agriculture sector under this system (Larson, Dinar, and Frisbie 2011). Research, extension, and information: learning from and with farmers Farmers are already innovative and proactive in adapting to climate con- straints, and an understanding of their behavior will help match services to needs and assist in broader adoption and dissemination of best practices. Traditional agricultural systems, usually characterized by a high degree of complexity and plant biodiversity, can provide valuable knowledge for ad- aptation. Much can be learned from the very specific use of environmental knowledge and natural resources in these systems (FAO 2010). Their efforts should be supported by innovation and experimentation in the many international and national centers of excellence in agriculture and water research. Organizations such as the Arab Center for the Study of Arid Zones and Drylands, the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, and the International Center for Biosaline Agriculture each bring specialist knowledge that is based on field and laboratory trials in the Arab region. Governments and farmers need supporting data to develop adaptation strategies, programs, and policies. Satellite-generated data allow the mea- surement of changes in land cover, the forecast and monitoring of crop yields, crop stress, production, stream flows, groundwater levels, soil moisture and water storage, and pollution plumes in water or in the soil. These data can be combined inputs into hydrological and crop modeling to anticipate likely impacts of climate change. The MAWRED (Model- ing and Monitoring Agriculture and Water Resources Development) program at the International Center for Biosaline Agriculture and the related WISP (Water Information Systems Platform) projects, at key centers in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia combine state- of-the-art water modeling with remotely sensed data to help answer key regional and national policy questions. These programs are examples of local centers working with international organizations such as the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (through funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development and the World Bank’s Global Environment Facility program) to bring innovative information generation to the region. 190 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Adapting institutions: decentralization and community collaboration Many adaptations to climate change will involve communal approaches to natural resource management. Institutional changes across the region have, in recent years, brought increased emphasis on “subsidiarity”—de- centralizing decision making to the lowest possible level, encouraging participation of stakeholders, and fostering local-level community or in- terest groups as primary agents of development and as counterparts to public services. Many adaptations will require this kind of local collabora- tion, including the following (Dixon and Gulliver 2001, 121): • Revival and adaptation of older systems of rotational grazing and land management that involve all stakeholders in planning, managing, and monitoring • Watershed-based (rather than individual) soil and water management systems • Development of collective groundwater management • Water-demand management through communal regulation • Conservation of ecosystems, environmental services, and sociocultural heritage The challenge will be for public services to organize themselves cross- sectorally, so that support is forthcoming not only for agriculture but also for water management, marketing, downstream processing, off-farm ac- tivities, the environment and so forth, as well as human development as- pects that are key to sustaining livelihoods. Bottom-up community orga- nizations gaining support from top-down “convergent” public services and community development funds make up a key set of capabilities that can achieve a substantial impact on rural livelihoods. New business lines, such as “green agriculture,” ecotourism, and landscape and cultural heri- tage management, require these public-community partnership ap- proaches. It will be important to factor in participation of both women and youth and to promote the engagement of civil society organizations at all levels from local to national (Christensen 2007, 61). Ways Forward to Reduce Climate Stress Climate change in the Arab region is likely to act as a “threat multiplier” rather than a “game changer.” It will increase many of the complex chal- lenges that already exist, such as water scarcity, growing populations, en- Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 191 vironmental degradation, and unemployment. Many governments have taken steps toward developing climate change adaptation strategies for the key areas of agricultural production, rural livelihoods, and food secu- rity. Often, strategies for climate change adaptation reinforce or comple- ment existing programs and projects. Adaptation plans will differ among countries, reflecting the region’s varying environmental, socioeconomic, and political conditions. A range of policy measures (regulatory, financial, and information instruments) will be needed within strategic frameworks to address both the institu- tional and economic barriers to adaptation, as well as the changing natu- ral environment. Transformation of the agriculture sector under adapta- tion strategies can yield important economic results, as well as enhance food security. When allied with economic diversification programs, the development returns might be substantial. There are thus important op- portunities to be grasped as well as challenges to be faced in developing adaptation strategies. Given the current political complexities in the region, responding to the impacts of climate change may seem daunting. But if future social and economic risks are to be managed, the agricultural production systems of Arab countries must incorporate climate resilience. Communities in this region have survived changing climates in the past, but current popula- tion and other pressures are so great that national governments need to be actively involved in adaptation plans so that people can sustain their existence in rural areas and so that food is available to all. If adaptation to climate change can be properly managed, the agriculture sector and the rural economy not only could cope with many of the risks of climate change but also could strengthen the structure of the sector through more sustainable land and water management practices and higher pro- ductivity agriculture (McDonnell and Ismail 2011). See annex 4C for measures and potential results in farm-level adaptation to climate change, and annex 4D for strategies and actions for agriculture and water-related adaptation at the national level. Summary of Key Messages Agricultural production • Farming systems in general will likely be negatively affected by in- creasing aridity, greater unpredictability, and growing water scarcity. • Some farming systems may benefit from warmer temperatures that extend the growing season or increase productivity of winter crops. 192 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries • Until midcentury, favorable terms of trade and available productivity improvements and adaptation strategies could allow continued in- creases in output in most systems if the institutional and incentive frameworks are favorable. Thereafter, negative climate change effects may override these potentials and production may decline. • Marginal farming systems in dryland and pastoral systems are particu- larly vulnerable, and some lands may shift to less intensive production or go out of production altogether. • A wide range of both technological and institutional adaptation mea- sures is available for most farming systems. Farmers are already apply- ing many of these measures. • The challenge will be to ensure that knowledge-based approaches combine governments’ ability to guide adaptation through the incen- tive structure; support research; and provide technical and institutional support for the knowledge, skills, and adaptive capacity that farmers need. • Responses to climate change should generally coincide with best- practice agendas on sustainable land and water management, as well as with institutional decentralization and empowerment of local stakeholders. • Because aridity will increase and water is the binding constraint to agri- culture in the region, governments will need to evaluate trade-offs be- tween supporting climate change responses in agriculture and prepar- ing parts of the rural economy for transition away from agriculture. • Key areas for government action include (a) developing climate mod- eling and adaptation strategies, emphasizing robust “no regret” op- tions, especially those that combine adaptation and mitigation; (b) pre- paring adaptation strategies; (c) adapting water management and agricultural services; (d) decentralizing and strengthening local par- ticipatory governance, land tenure, and environmental stewardship; (e) advancing trade liberalization and market development; (f) strength- ening cooperation on climate change; and (g) working out options for financing adaptation, especially through global funds. Food security • Arab countries with vulnerable populations dependent on farming can improve food security by a rural livelihoods strategy principally fo- Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 193 cused on enhancing agricultural and off-farm incomes and production. This approach will help rural household food security and will also contribute to the national food supply and price stability. • In evaluating the trade-offs between promoting domestic food pro- duction and promoting production that gives the highest return to water, governments will need to take account of the realities of food security at both the household and national level. At the household level, farmers will need to maximize income to ensure household-level food security and escape from poverty. • All Arab countries can work to improve supply-chain efficiency and to cooperate with global efforts to stabilize food markets and prices. Poorer countries may also seek bilateral and multilateral agreements for food aid. • All Arab countries can strengthen safety nets (cash transfers, labor- intensive employment programs, and health and nutrition interven- tions) and education. • Better-off countries requiring assurance of food supplies can reduce exposure to market supply and price risks not only by improving supply-chain efficiency but also by introducing cost-effective risk management instruments calibrated to the risk assessed. Rural livelihoods • Existing rural community resilience will be impaired by climate change impacts on natural resources and on financial and social capital. • Adaptation strategies at the household level need to develop income opportunities less dependent on natural resources, alongside programs for agricultural intensification. • Governments have a major role to play in developing and implement- ing rural livelihood adaptation strategies, including (a) establishing a policy and incentive framework favorable to diversified rural enter- prises and livelihoods; (b) supporting integrated rural development programs, especially for infrastructure, health, and education; (c) de- centralizing public services, empowering local government, and em- powering community-based and nongovernmental organizations; (d) facilitating the inevitable rural-urban migration; (e) ensuring that social safety nets are in place in rural areas; and (f) developing disaster reduction and risk management systems. 194 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries ANNEX 4A Characteristics of the Arab Region’s Farming Systems Farming system Countries where found Characteristics Irrigated: Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Syrian Arab • 8.1 million ha of irrigated cropland (1) large scale Republic • Agricultural population: 16 million • High population density and small farm size • Largely run-off from the river, but also karaz or qanat systems drawing on underground water • Large center pivot schemes dependent on pumped groundwater • Generally, moderate water-use efficiency • Cash crops, including cotton, sugar beet, vegetables, fodder • Cropping intensities: 120−160% Irrigated: Throughout the region, including the Arab Republic of • Dependent on streams and springs, on oases, and on (2) small scale Egypt, the Maghreb, Oman, the Syrian Arab Republic, spate flows and flood recession and the Republic of Yemen. Often complementary to • Supplementary irrigation from groundwater is other systems, such as highland mixed (see below) practiced Irrigated: Throughout the region • Individual groundwater irrigation developed rapidly in (3) groundwater recent years, often associated with protected agriculture (such as greenhouses) and with pressurized irrigation (drip, sprinkler) Highland mixed Morocco (Atlas), Republic of Yemen • Cultivated area: 22 million ha (5 million ha of which are irrigated) • Agricultural population: 27 million • Annual rainfall: 200-800 mm • Dominated by rainfed cereal and legume crops with tree crops (olives, fruits, khat, coffee) on terraces • In Morocco, livestock transhumance also important Rainfed mixed Algeria (coastal plain), Iraq (Kurdistan), Lebanon, • Cultivated area: 14 million ha Morocco (Rif), Syrian Arab Republic (coastal plain) • Agricultural population: approximately 16 million • 8 million cattle • Rainfall: 300−1,000 mm • Approximately 600,000 ha now irrigated by tube well, increasing yields and allowing summer cropping • Main winter crops: wheat, barley, chickpeas, lentils, and fodder crops • Tree crops (olives, fruit, nuts), melons, and grapes grown in areas with > 600 mm of rainfall • Some protected irrigation of vegetables and flowers for export Dryland mixed Algeria (inland plains), Libya, Morocco (Atlantic coastal • Dry, subhumid zones plain), northern Iraq, West Bank and Gaza, Syrian Arab • Annual rainfall: 150−300 mm Republic, Tunisia • Cultivated area: 17 million ha • Agricultural population: 13 million • Approximately 3 million ha receive some level of irrigation • Main crops: barley and wheat, with fallow years • 6 million cattle; innumerable sheep and goats Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 195 Farming system Countries where found Characteristics Pastoral Desert margins of Algeria, Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, • Extensive, on 250 million ha of semiarid steppe Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Syrian Arab Republic, • Low population densities Republic of Yemen • Rainfall: < 150 mm • Approximately 2.9 million ha of irrigated cropland scattered through the system • Agricultural population: 8 million • 60 million sheep and goats • 3 million cattle • Seasonal migration; strong links to peri-urban feedlots Agropastoral Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan • Sorghum, millet, pulses, cattle, sheep, goats (millet, sorghum) Cereal/root crop mixed South Sudan, Sudan • Maize, sorghum, millet, root crops, cattle Arid zones Deserts of Algeria, Arab Republic of Egypt, Gulf states, • Extensive area Iraq, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syrian Arab Republic, • Agricultural population: approximately 4 million, Tunisia largely in oases and irrigation schemes (notably in the Maghreb and Libya) • 2.7 million cattle, plus camels, sheep, and goats Sources: Christensen 2007; Dixon and Gulliver 2001, 87-91. Note: Percentages of the region’s land area and agricultural population are not calculated for the agropastoral and cereals/root crop mixed farming systems. Ha = hectare. 196 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries ANNEX 4B Predictive Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Livestock Climate change effects Impacts Areas affected in Arab countries Agroclimatic conditions • Increased temperature during growing • Reduction in yield resulting from shorter • Reductions possible across all areas season duration of various physiological • Possible benefits in higher-elevation development stages agriculture where water is available • Possible benefit in some areas from longer growing season • Increase in days above threshold • Nonlinear decline in yields as above- • Across all areas temperatures and key plant development threshold temperatures are met times (thresholds: wheat 26ºC, maize 30ºC, rice 34ºC) • For some crops (such as olives in Morocco), higher annual low temperatures will be problematic since some plants need cold in winter • Increase in length of dry season • Reduction in (a) yields, (b) number of • Large parts of Iraq and the Syrian Arab crops per year, (c) length of time that Republic by the end of the 21st century rangelands can be grazed, and (d) number of animals supported • Unpredictable rainfall patterns • Increase in fires leading to loss of grazing land and forests Hydrological conditions • Decrease in groundwater recharge • Less water available for irrigation • Most countries • Decrease of more than 70% by 2050 along the southern Mediterranean • Decrease in surface flows • Less water available for irrigation • River-based systems (such as the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan) • Increase in heavy rainfall • Floods and greater soil erosion removing • Sloped areas across region natural resource base, where land-use practices, such as bunds or terraces, are not in place Soil conditions • Decrease in soil moisture • Reduced plant growth and yield, with • Rainfed agriculture areas plant foliage often irreparably damaged • Irrigated and mixed rainfed areas • Increased need for supplemental or full • Pasture and rangelands irrigation • Restricted grazing • Decrease in soil carbon • Reduced nutrient levels and soil water • Carbon content in the Arab region tends holding capacity, leading to decline in already to be low yields, further reducing soil carbon content Atmospheric conditions • Increase in carbon dioxide atmospheric • Increased photosynthesis (such as, for C3 • Across all areas, increased yield potential levels plants like wheat) could increase yields constrained by water stress and soil • Reduced plant uptake of nitrogen may nutrient levels cause lower nutritional value of crops Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 197 Climate change effects Impacts Areas affected in Arab countries Sea-level rise • Inundation of agricultural land • Loss of productive land in low-lying areas • Bahrain, Comoros, Kuwait, Nile Delta, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates • Salinization of soils • Decrease of productive land or reduction • Coastal zones, particularly in the Gulf in yields countries • Salinization of aquifers • Decrease in water available for irrigation • Coastal zones, particularly in the Gulf or reduction in yields countries Plant and animal health conditions • Pests and diseases • Different pest and disease vectors will • All areas; Egypt already seeing bluetongue affect growth and yields in both plants disease and Rift Valley fever and animals • Humans • Increased disease vectors and heat stress • Across all areas will affect labor activities Sources: Bengtsson, Hodges, and Roeckner 2006; Black, Brayshaw, and Rambeau 2010; Boko et al. 2007; Chenoweth et al. 2011; Christensen 2007; Dasgupta et al. 2007; Dixon and Gulliver 2001; Döll and Flörke 2005; Easterling et al. 2007; Elasha 2010; Evans 2009, 2010; Giorgi 2006; Jin, Kitoh, and Alpert 2010; Kitoh, Yatagai, and Alpert 2008; Lobell et al. 2011; McDonnell and Ismail 2011, based on Ghassemi, Jakeman, and Nix 2005; Milly, Dunne, and Vecchia 2005; UNDP 2009; World Bank 2006b, 2007, 2011; WFP 2010. 198 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries ANNEX 4C Measures and Potential Results in Farm-Level Adaptation to Climate Change Measure Action Potential results Choice of crops • Adopt drought- and heat-resistant varieties • Reduction of risks of yield loss and lower irrigation requirements • Adopt salt-tolerant varieties • Increased production on salinized land or with salinized water • Adopt pest-resistant varieties • Reduction of crop loss when climate conditions are favorable for increased weeds and pests • Adapt maturation time to new conditions • Improved yields by maturation in shortened or lengthened growing season • Use altered mix of crops • Risk-hedging leading to reduction of overall production variability • Adopt agroforestry • Increase in overall production using trees with crops/shrubs that are drought or salt tolerant for both enhancing shade and water retention for other crops as well as providing trees to harvest Choice of livestock • Raise more drought-hardy animals (camels, • Fewer animal and production losses goats) • Increase use of pest-resistant breeds • Fewer animal and production losses • Improve livestock breeding • Development of animal species that are more adapted to new environmental conditions Tillage and time of • Change planting dates • Adaptation to altered precipitation and temperature patterns operations • Increase protected agriculture • Reduction in water lost through evapotranspiration and wind • Increase land leveling • Better water dispersion and filtration, and reduction in erosion • Introduce deep plowing • Break up hard pan to increase infiltration • Change tillage and mulching practices • Increases retention of moisture and organic matter and reduces greenhouse gas emissions • Change mulching • Increases moisture retention and minimizes weeds • Switch from spring to winter crops • Fewer losses from lengthened summer dry periods • Change fallow period • Increases retention of moisture and organic matter • Increase carbon additive input • Compensate for loss of carbon through increased decomposition rates of soil carbon Crop husbandry • Alter row and plant spacing • Extension of roots to groundwater • Expand intercropping • Increase shading to reduce moisture losses, increase overall land productivity and crop diversity Livestock husbandry • Increase supplementary feeding, feed blocks • Less impact from lower-nutrient fodder • Increase disease management • Fewer losses from new disease vectors and pests Irrigation and water • Use supplemental irrigation in dry farming • Fewer losses in drier conditions harvesting areas • Improve irrigation technology, management • Lower water use; less moisture stress and higher yields for crops • Irrigate with marginal water • Reduction in the overexploitation of freshwater; more water available for crops • Monitor water use, reduce overwatering • Efficient use of water for optimizing crop yield • Introduce rainwater harvesting • Increase in available water Soil fertility • Adapt fertilizer to specific conditions • Maximization of yields and minimization of input cost • Adapt timing of fertilizer application • Increase in mineral nutrients available to crops by applying when needed Fisheries • Improve fisheries management • Conserve stocks and reduce environmental stresses Sources: Cai and Sharma 2010; Cai et al. 2011; Haddad et al. 2011; McDonnell and Ismail 2011, based on AOAD 2007; Molden et al. 2010; Sulser et al. 2011, table 4.4. Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 199 ANNEX 4D Strategies and Actions for Agriculture and Water-Related Adaptation at the National Level Measure Action Potential result Financial instruments • Improve targeted subsidies • Better support for use of new crop and livestock species, conservation fishing practices, agroforestry, agricultural infrastructure, and land conservation measures • Increase investment • Better equipment and infrastructure to support increased agricultural and water productivity • Obtain funding, such as through payments • Support for sustainable management practices of both land and for ecosystem services or from international marine environments climate financing programs • Increase microfinance • Support for new equipment, land, seeds, and other requirements needed for adaptation • Improve social safety nets • Increased support for the most vulnerable to protect their asset bases during extreme events • Introduce climate-related insurance • Reduction (over a limited period) of financial risks from climate- induced production failures and short-term losses from moves to new crops, livestock, or irrigation practices Information services • Increase funding and support of research • Increased knowledge about crop and agricultural management possibilities; development of on-farm research projects to gain local support; better access to seeds and new breeds; increased coordination between Arab, regional, and international climate change and agricultural research centers • Improve farmer extension services • Increased farm-level knowledge and access to new practices and possibilities for developing climate-resistant agriculture • Improve drought monitoring • Early warning to producers and supporting-government institutions of potentially difficult conditions • Improve disease and pest monitoring • Early warning to producers and supporting government institutions of potential yield losses Institutional and • Establish cooperatives for marketing and • Spreading of risk; maximization of market opportunities legal development supplies • Further develop land tenure • Improved access to subsidies and credit and better investment opportunities • Regulate environments, such as land, water • Reduced degradation of natural resource base from climate bodies, and marine areas change and human actions Sources: Alwang and Norton 2011; Knutson and Bazza 2008; McDonnell and Ismail 2011, based on AOAD 2007; Sulser et al. 2011; UN and LAS 2010; World Bank 2009. 200 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries ANNEX 4E Strategies and Actions for Improving Rural Livelihoods and Adaptation at the National Level Measure Action Potential result Financial instruments • Target subsidies • Support for economic diversification; increased investment incentive to private sector to establish businesses in rural areas • Access various payment schemes, such as for • Increased income through supporting activities, such as ecosystems services and from international ecosystems services or climate mitigation/adaptation measures climate funds to improve living standards and environment • Increase investment • Better education, health, and transport infrastructure and programs to support economic development • Improve safety nets • Increased support for the most vulnerable during periods of disaster and enhanced risk Information services • Support education and skills development • Increased possibilities for employment away from agriculture initiatives • Support improvements in health provisions • Protection of rural populations from increased health risks to ensure ability to earn incomes • Develop information and communication • Increased access for rural communities to information that can technologies improve skills/education and their preparedness for current climate conditions • Provide support for local entrepreneurship • Increased local businesses for income and employment opportunities • Provide pricing information • Maximization of income for rural producers Institutional and • Strengthen role of rural institutions and • Greater voice for concerns and needs of rural communities legal development governance • Develop and support women’s groups • Increased support for women in developing and implementing adaptation strategies • Support local nongovernmental organization • More practical hands-on support to rural communities to prepare development adaptation and increase climate resilience • Increase support of migrating households • Help for migrants to establish themselves in new areas and to limit the impacts of loss of social capital Sources: Alwang and Norton 2011; IFAD 2010a, 2010b; McDonnell and Ismail 2011, based on AOAD 2007; UN and LAS 2010. Agriculture, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security Are Stressed in a Changing Climate 201 ANNEX 4F Strategies and Actions for Food Security Adaptation at the National Level Measure Action Potential result Financial instruments • Target food price controls/subsidies • Reduced impact of food price rises to vulnerable groups without leakage to higher-income groups • Access climate finance payments • Development of agricultural production and food chains • Use hedging instruments • Lower impact of price spikes by spreading risk • Increase investment • Development of food-chain transport and storage systems; better economic development in poor areas and increased incomes • Improve safety nets • Increased income to vulnerable groups to maintain their food access • Implement climate-related insurance • Reduction of risk of local climate extreme impacts on agricultural production and income failure Information services • Monitor food availability • More information about global and local food supplies so that actions can be taken before crises emerge • Increase research • Increased knowledge about the complex interactions of the dimensions of food security to develop better adaptation strategies • Increase information about food • Healthier and more sustainable food consumption patterns and consumption and nutrition reduction of waste Physical stock • Build strategic food stocks at national and • Reduction of the impacts of variations in supply and price of food developments local levels in global markets Institutional and • Improve food security policies • Better strategic policies for food security as opposed to food legal development production • Improve bilateral and multilateral food • Establishment of food supply agreements with producing areas supply chains to establish reliable incomes and investment for food producers, and secure supplies for consumers Sources: Alwang and Norton 2011; Godfray et al. 2010; IFAD 2010a, 2010b; Lampietti et al. 2011; McDonnell and Ismail 2011, based on AOAD 2007; Nelson et al. 2010; Sulser et al. 2011; UN and LAS 2010; World Bank 2009. 202 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Note 1. 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Challenges and Options.” World Bank, Washington, DC. ———. 2006b. “Making the Most of Scarcity: Accountability for Better Water Management in the Middle East and North Africa.” World Bank, Washing- ton, DC. ———. 2007. “Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA): Regional Busi- ness Strategy to Address Climate Change.” World Bank, Washington, DC. ———. 2009. “Improving Food Securities in Arab Countries.” World Bank, Washington, DC. ———. 2011. “Middle East and North Africa Water Outlook.” World Bank, Washington, DC. CHAPTER 5 Climate Change Affects Urban Livelihoods and Living Conditions The aim of this chapter is to discuss the relative vulnerability to climate change of urban areas and their inhabitants in the Arab countries, to dem- onstrate some actual responses to these challenges, and finally, to propose additional policy options to strengthen the capacity for cities to adapt to climate change. The chapter will argue that climate change is currently threatening cities. It will further make the case that rapid and uncon- trolled urban expansion exacerbates climate change impacts, especially the construction of informal human settlements and urban drainage sys- tems. The chapter proposes that urban poverty reduction measures that share cobenefits with climate change adaptation should be prioritized; urban greening efforts should be enhanced to match current urbanization rates; the informal settlement of land and building of homes should be regulated; specific measures should be taken to improve the availability of water resources; urban water drainage systems should be improved to meet the projected challenges associated with flooding; and local govern- ments’ capacities should be developed in climate change adaptation and given a greater role in adaptive planning once their capacity for such re- sponsibilities has been strengthened. The world’s first cities were located near the coastlines and waterways of the Arab countries. In exploring the historic areas of cities such as Al- giers, Byblos, Damascus, or Jericho, it can be seen that traditional build- ing techniques still demonstrate how cities were built to cope with the hot, dry environment. Buildings were built closely together to provide shaded walkways from the intense sun. Walls were thick and solid to ab- sorb the daytime heat, both for shielding the interior spaces during the day and for emitting that same heat at night. Fountains of water were used Photograph by Dorte Verner 207 208 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries to cool interior spaces through evaporation while wind towers cooled through convection. The cities themselves were placed near water, but above flood plains. Over time, globalization has led to the construction of cities that are less responsive to local climate and environmental condi- tions. Meanwhile, the climate itself is changing, and these changes must be considered in the planning and construction of cities. Urban areas concentrate a large proportion of people and assets, and many cities are in coastal and low-lying areas, with high exposure to climate change risks. In the Arab countries, it is anticipated that over 75 percent of the total population will live in urban areas by 2050, the majority of which are lo- cated in coastal areas (Mirkin 2010). Climate Change Threatens Cities Climate change is a major global development challenge, which threat- ens both human development and efforts toward achieving the United Nations (UN) Millennium Development Goals. In urban areas, the negative effects of drought, flooding, temperature increases, and sea- level rise are exacerbated by existing challenges, which include poverty, rapid urbanization, a lack of safe and affordable housing, inadequate ur- ban drainage systems, and governance structures that lack the local ca- pacity needed to effectively adapt to climate change (Satterthwaite et al. 2007; UNDP 2008). Climate change affects urban areas differently from rural areas. Peo- ple’s livelihoods within cities tend to be more diverse and less reliant on the natural environment than in rural communities and are, therefore, more resilient to climate exposure. Still, urban populations are not insu- lated from climate risks. Cities do not exist independently from the coun- tryside and largely depend on broad trade networks to supply food, water, and other resources. For example, drought may decrease agricultural yields on farms, which will, in turn, lead to an increase in food prices. This disproportionately affects urban residents, who have less capacity to grow food for subsistence. Furthermore, climate change can impact the avail- ability and transport of these resources to cities. As will be shown, cities located in coastal areas are more exposed to sea-level rise and storm surges. Many cities are also built in a way that encourages the develop- ment of low-income or informal housing in areas vulnerable to floods and landslides. Finally, cities simply have more assets and more people than do rural areas, so in sheer volume, more humans and resources are threat- ened by climate change in urban settings. Climate change impacts are not felt uniformly across cities. It has been shown in other regions that the poor are disproportionately vulnerable Climate Change Affects Urban Livelihoods and Living Conditions 209 because they lack the resources to adapt, they live in areas exposed to weather events, and they are more likely to continue suffering indirect losses after a disaster, through displacement and the disruption of liveli- hoods and social networks (Hardoy and Pandiella 2009; Mearns and Nor- ton 2010). Other studies show that poor women are particularly vulner- able. As livelihoods are disrupted and men seek new productive alternatives, women are left to assume the responsibilities abandoned by their male counterparts in addition to their traditional domestic respon- sibilities (Ashwill and Blomqvist 2011). In urban areas, financial assets are critical to livelihood security be- cause most work is wage based and most resources are accessed through cash exchanges (Sanderson 2000). Human and social assets are also at risk in that climate change has been shown to adversely impact health and contribute to migration (Raleigh and Jordan 2010; Verner 2010). Table 5.1 demonstrates many of the ways that climate change has been shown to affect the assets, services, and health of urban residents. Cities Are Changing and Becoming More Exposed Arab cities are changing in ways that worsen the impacts from climate change. Urbanization, which can be understood as the physical growth of urban areas and their populations, was said to contribute to vulnerability in the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Parry et al. 2007). In addition, rapid urbanization is often either unplanned or planned without considering climate change. This results in the creation and expansion of informal settlements, which are highly vulnerable to climate events; the destruction of natural environments, which act as a buffer to climate change impacts; and the design of inade- quate drainage and wastewater management systems, which can make the consequences of extreme weather events more severe. Urbanization Over the past 40 years, the population of Arab countries has grown nearly threefold to the current population of 340 million people. It is projected that the region will be home to some 395 million people by 2020 and to 598 million by 2050 (El-Batran 2008; Mirkin 2010). As the population grows, it is rapidly urbanizing. Cairo, for example, gains an estimated 1,000 new residents every week (Ghoneim 2009). This urbanization, which is not only occurring in large metropolises but also in small and medium-size towns (Kharoufi 2011), is occurring for a num- ber of reasons. These reasons include displacement from wars and 210 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE 5.1 Possible Climate Change Impacts in Urban Areas in the Arab Countries Natural hazards Incremental and extreme events impacts on urban systems Impacts on urban residents Increased temperature • Heat waves • Increased heat island effect • Asthma • Fires • Increased outdoor pollution • Heat stress and stroke • Reduced interior air quality • Thirst • Increased interior temperatures • Illness • Reduced groundwater table • Property losses • Changing disease vectors • Housing instability • Stress on storm water system • Disruptions in access to power, • Increased energy demand transport systems, and supplies • Increased road surface damage • Increased demand for water Decreased precipitation • Drought • Groundwater depletion • Water shortages • Fires • Subsidence • Food shortages • Stress on building foundations • Exposure to new disease vectors • Reduction in green space and • Inability to fish and farm growing conditions • Higher food prices • Reductions in urban agriculture • Disruptions of hydroelectricity • Changes in fish populations • Housing instability • Increased runoff contamination • Changing disease vectors Increased precipitation • Flooding • Stress on storm water and sewage • Exposure to flood-related toxins • Mudslides systems and wastes • Epidemics • Stress on building foundations • Illness • Stress on building envelope • Substandard construction • Slope instability • Disruption of basic services • Road washouts • Provision and access to supplies • Changing disease vectors • Housing instability • Property loss and relocation • Community fragmentation Sea-level rise • Storm surges • Coastal erosion • Exposure to flood-related toxins • Flooding • Altered coastal ecosystems and wastes • Impacts on wetlands • Disruption in availability of potable water, food, and other supplies • Salinization of water sources • Property loss and relocation • Stress on water treatment systems • Community fragmentation • Stress on storm water systems • Disruptions to shipping and ports Sources: Adapted from Carmin and Zhang 2009; Dickson et al. 2010; Dodman and Satterthwaite 2008; Wilbanks et al. 2007; World Bank, forthcoming. Climate Change Affects Urban Livelihoods and Living Conditions 211 conflicts, high fertility rates, substantial rural-to-urban migration (also see box 5.1) and some international immigration (mainly between Arab countries but also from outside the region) (El-Batran 2008). In fact, the annual urbanization rate exceeds the population growth rate in most Arab countries (see table 1.1, chapter 1 of this volume). Figure 5.1 shows urbanization rates for the world, the Arab region, and select Arab coun- tries from the past 50 years. In Dubai, developed areas nearly tripled over the 20-year period be- tween 1984 and 2003, from 78.5 square kilometers to 266.1 square kilo- meters (Ghoneim 2009). Map 5.1 shows how urban areas expanded in Beirut from 1984 to 2006. Somalia, Sudan, and the Republic of Yemen, are the most rapidly urbanizing of the three least developed countries, with rates of urban growth at 3.5 percent, 4.5 percent, and 4.9 percent, respectively (see table 1.1, chapter 1 of this volume). The expansion of cities into flood plains, wadis, wetlands, and water catchments affects not only local residents, but also the city as a whole, because these areas are the natural safeguards against flooding. Hillside deforestation and building development increases the amount of water runoff and can lead to landslides, a secondary hazard. In addition, there is a problem with homes and roads being constructed entirely in natural water passages, blocking natural water flows. With increased paving and construction, more rainwater will be lost to sheeting rather than reab- sorbed into local aquifers. Across the region, intense seasonal rains, which used to occur once every 20–30 years, are now occurring on a nearly an- nual basis (Al Khan 2010). The loss of vegetative ground cover, deforesta- tion, the excessive drying of soil, and the laying of asphalt all decrease the land’s natural ability to absorb and cleanse this moisture. Global urbanization is predominantly coastal, and this trend is am- plified in Arab countries, where most of the 37,000 kilometers of coast- line are developed (Ghoneim 2009). Map 5.2 illustrates the population density in the region, with the highest densities located along the coastlines and near rivers. This contributes to vulnerability as it ex- poses the densest populations to sea-level rise, lowland flooding, and storm surges. The Arab countries are particularly vulnerable to coastal flooding given the high concentration of populations in these areas. Coastal flood- ing refers to any type of flooding from the sea, because of high tides, storm surges, sea-level rise, and high river levels. According to Ghoneim (2009), a conservative 1-meter sea-level rise scenario would inundate 41,500 square kilometers of coastal areas in the Arab countries, directly affecting more than 37 million people. By contrast, a more extreme 5-meter rise in sea level would flood 113,000 square kilometers, with impacts spread unequally across many countries (Ghoneim 2009). 212 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 5.1 Climate Change Contributes to Urbanization: The Example of Rural-to-Urban Bedouin Migration in the Syrian Arab Republic While urbanization increases vulnerability moved to peri-urban areas within Syria, and to climate change, climate change itself can others have immigrated to different coun- contribute to urbanization. In Syria, for tries in the region, such as Lebanon and example, the UN estimates that a recent Saudi Arabia, in search of work. four-year drought drove nearly 800,000 Ahmed, along with his brothers and rural villagers to makeshift camps around neighbors, moved to Palmyra, where a tree the cities of Aleppo, Damascus, and Homs nursery provided them with three months of (Sinjab 2010). In Damascus, former wheat work. After that, he moved to Homs to har- farmers now live in dusty tents made of plas- vest olives for one month, while his broth- tic and cotton sheets, with no plans to return ers moved elsewhere. They have all since to their former villages (Assaf 2010). returned to the nursery near Palmyra, where For a recent World Bank study, the team Ahmed lives with his sister and earns LS interviewed Bedouin migrants who were 6,000 (about US$100) per month. He says driven from Syria’s he is able to cover Badia rangeland his expenses but to the outskirts of cannot save, and he Palmyra and other also says that many cities because of others are worse drought. These off. The govern- migrants experi- ment has provided enced losses to their tents, with a single traditional liveli- rug and a pillow, hood of sheep herd- but without any ing and, as a conse- other basic services quence, moved to for the migrants. the city in search of Photograph by Dorte Verner The UN reports wage labor. Ahmed that the dietary Mehened, a single 38-year-old man from intake of these Bedouin migrants has plum- the community of Satih, said, “We lost our meted. Meat and dairy consumption has flock due to the continued dry years. We decreased, and a large number of migrants waited until all of the sheep were gone, and live exclusively on sugared tea and bread. when they were, we left.” Ahmed and his Education in these communities also tends brothers owned 70 sheep in 2004, but within to be very low. a few years they were forced to abandon Ahmed finds it difficult to create con- their traditional livelihood. Unlike the more tacts and find work in Palmyra and Homs; powerful herders, who had sufficient savings without a formal education or professional and sheep to withstand the drought, small training, Ahmed says he has no hope for a flock owners, such as Ahmed, were forced to future in the city. He would like to return to leave for the cities. Some have permanently the rangeland as a herder. Source: World Bank 2011a. Climate Change Affects Urban Livelihoods and Living Conditions 213 FIGURE 5.1 Urban Population Growth in Selected Arab Countries, the Arab Region, and the World 80 Urban population (% of total population) 60 40 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Arab region World Yemen, Rep. United Arab Emirates Tunisia Source: Authors’ representation based on data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators database. MAP 5.1 Urban Expansion in Beirut, 1984–2006 a. Land use, 1984 b. Land use, 2006 35'30E 35'35E 35'30E 35'35E 33'55N 33'50N Source: CRS-BU, E. Ghoneim—AFED 2009 Report. Note: Red areas demonstrate the increasing urban footprint of Beirut between 1984 and 2006. 214 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries MAP 5.2 Population Density of the Arab Countries, 2005 IBRD 39628 10° 50°E SYRIAN TUNISIA ARAB LEBANON REP. IRAQ West Bank and Gaza MOROCCO 30°N JORDAN KUWAIT A ERIA ALGERIA LIBYA ARAB BAHRAIN QATAR REP. OF SAUDI EGYPT ARABIA UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 20°N MAURITANIA OMAN 20°N SUD D SUDAN REP. OF YEMEN DJIBOUTI 10°N 10°N POPULATION PER SQUARE KILOMETER: SOUTH SUDAN SOMALIA 1,000 100 20 0° 0° 10 5 ° 10°W SOURCE: Gridded Population of the World, version 3 (GPWv3). . “Population Density Future Estimates, 2010” 10°S 10°S COMOROS This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information 0 500 Kilometers shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 0° 10°E 40°E 50°E 60°E NOVEMBER 2012 Source: World Bank, from the UNEP GEO (Global Environment Outlook) Data Portal, 2011, as compiled from the Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical. http:// geodata.grid.unep.ch. It is projected that sea-level rise, especially along the coastal zones of the Mediterranean Sea and the Arabian Gulf, will lead to billions of dollars in estimated losses (Ghoneim 2009). An assessment of the vulnerability of the most important economic and historic centers along the Mediterra- nean coast (the cities of Alexandria, Rosetta, and Port-Said) suggests that, in the event of a sea-level rise of only 50 centimeters, more than 2 million people would have to abandon their homes (figure 5.2). Moreover, 214,000 jobs would be lost, and the cost in terms of land and property values and lost tourism income would be more than US$35 billion (El Raey 1997). The urbanization process also exacerbates the increased tempera- tures and more frequent heat waves associated with climate change. Asphalt, concrete, and other buildings trap solar heat and store it dur- ing the day, then radiate this heat at night, preventing a drop in local temperatures. Known as the urban heat island effect, urban areas tend to experience higher temperatures than do nearby rural areas. Poor air Climate Change Affects Urban Livelihoods and Living Conditions 215 FIGURE 5.2 Estimated Percentage Increase in Storm Surge Zone Areas by Country, in Selected Arab Countries, 2009 90 80 70 60 % increase 50 40 30 20 10 0 . a ya co tar isia tes ia an . it ep ep eri wa rab roc Lib Om Qa ira bR ,R Tun Alg Ku iA Mo Em en Ara ud Yem rab pt, Sa dA y Eg ite Un Source: Modified after Dasgupta et al. 2009. Note: Percentages are drawn from a global study measuring the potential impact of a large (1-in-100-year) storm surge by contemporary standards, compared with the intensification that is expected to occur in this century. In modeling the future climate, the study took into account changes in sea-level rise, geological uplift, and subsidence along the world’s coastlines. quality in cities can also exacerbate this heat retention (see Cairo, for example, map 5.3). The Arab region is particularly sensitive to the urban heat island effect, and recent modeling suggests that by 2050 nighttime temperatures in many cities could be 3°C to 3.5°C warmer than the surrounding country- side, which itself could be 2°C to 3°C warmer than now (McCarthy, Best, and Betts 2010). This will have a severe impact on those who rely on pas- sive nighttime cooling to keep their houses and business habitable. Higher temperatures have been associated with many deleterious hu- man impacts. These include greater risk of disease (for example, malaria and dengue); increased water evaporation, which can contribute to water scarcity; greater likelihood of heat stroke; and increased energy consump- tion for cooling purposes (Verner 2010). (For more information on cli- mate change and health, please see chapter 8 of this volume.) Informal Housing Leaves the Urban Poor Exposed to Risk In the Arab countries, unplanned and self-built housing is expanding in many cities because the supply of formal and affordable housing does not meet the demand of growing populations. For example, rapid urban pop- 216 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries MAP 5.3 Rise in Cairo Surface Temperature, 1964–2002 a. Cairo, 1964 b. Cairo, 2002 Source: CRS-BU, E. Ghoneim—AFED 2009 Report. Note: Red areas indicate local surface temperatures and urban heat island effect following 20 years of extensive urbanization and develop- ment in Cairo. ulation growth in the Syrian Arab Republic has led to a large housing deficit, estimated to be 687,000 units by the government (Government of Syria 2006). In many Syrian cities, informal housing has become the norm. In Damascus, it is estimated that 50 percent of urban growth is informal (Fernandes 2008). Housing is critical to the urban poor because 50 percent of poor peo- ple’s incomes are generated in the home. Still, the urban poor are priced out of more desirable areas and frequently create informal settlements in insecure lands, making them the first to suffer the consequences of a di- saster (Huq et al. 2007). Without the resources to settle in desirable and secure locations, and with ill-regulated land use, poor migrants make their homes along waterways, flood-prone lowland areas, and on unstable slopes. This puts not just their homes and families in harm’s way, but also their livelihoods. In a tragic example, a major disaster hit Algeria in 2001 when flash floods in slum districts killed at least 600 people and displaced a thousand more (Economist 2001). The inability to meet this housing demand with formal, low-income living options has led to a general tolerance by authorities of the expan- sion into hazard-prone and environmentally sensitive areas. In 2005, nearly 800,000 homes were built in high-density settlements along the Climate Change Affects Urban Livelihoods and Living Conditions 217 Damascus fault line, an area prone to earthquakes, or in ecological buffer zones, which perform important environmental functions (IRIN 2005). This underscores the lack of planning and regulation that contributes to these informal settlements. Inadequate Drainage Will Not Accommodate New Precipitation Patterns The increased vulnerability of Arab cities to flooding from sea-level rise, more frequent storms, uncontrolled urban growth, and the destruction of natural water drainage systems (for example, wetlands) is exacerbated by poorly designed urban water drainage systems. If there is inadequate drainage, from too few drains or a limited capacity to deal with heavy precipitation, localized flooding occurs. Also, solid waste and sediments can block storm water drains and impede the flow of water from the im- pacted area. When this happens, particular weather events can quickly become natural disasters with significant human impacts. To provide an example, inadequate drainage contributed significantly to the 2009 flooding in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. In this case, more than 90 millimeters of rain, equal to twice the yearly average, fell within four hours. Jeddah’s drainage network was not properly designed and was in- complete, with unfinished segments that could not divert the amount of water accumulation (Assaf 2010 and chapter 3 of this volume). The flood tore through the poor neighborhoods of southern Jeddah, damaging more than 7,000 vehicles and 8,000 homes as well as claiming 150 lives. More significantly, these impacts could have been reduced, or even elimi- nated, had urban construction been avoided in the natural drainage areas, known as wadis. As a result, a large number of the victims were migrant workers who lived in poorly constructed, informal shanty houses in the wadi area. To make matters worse, the police and civil defense units were poorly prepared to handle large-scale disasters (Assaf 2010). Despite this, few cities are making investments in storm drainage to accommodate the increased exposure to flood waters, instead choosing cheaper, short-term solutions. Following the 2010 floods in Dubai, the city’s Municipality Drainage and Irrigation Network Department relied heavily on mobile pumping units to make up for the lack of adequate storm drainage (Al Khan 2010). Such a solution is not a sustainable an- swer to a climate that is becoming increasingly unpredictable. These problems are compounded in cities that use the same drainage system for storm waters and waste. Flooding in these cases makes the floodwaters toxic with human and other waste (Assaf 2010). 218 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Cities Struggle to Provide Water for an Increasingly Difficult Scenario Climate change is exacerbating the existing problem of water scarcity in a region that has 89 percent of its land categorized as arid and semiarid. Droughts are a major risk in the Arab region, affecting more than 40 mil- lion people from 1980 to 2010 (Erian, Katlan, and Bahbah 2010). Even under normal conditions, arid regions depend on such few rainfall events that a small deviation can have negative consequences. Refer to box 5.2 for an example of how increased aridity affected a city in Mauritania. BOX 5.2 Climate Change in Dryland Cities: Nouakchott, Mauritania Dryland cities are prone to desertification and sandstorms, which affects not only the buildings and infrastructure but also the health and well-being of urban residents, including drinking water short- ages, increases in food prices, and decreased air quality from dust contribute to a general reduction in the local quality of life. Nouakchott, a low-lying coastal city of 550,000, regularly expe- riences temperatures between 14°C and 37oC and has an average annual rainfall of 600 millimeters. This rainfall has been steadily decreasing since 1968, while the population has been growing. The amount of vegetation in the city has been reduced because of the grazing of livestock, and this has destabilized the 11 coastal dunes that surrounded the city. This has exposed the city to more frequent sand storms, which have major social and economic consequences. These consequences include damages to infrastructure and increased incidences of respiratory infections, which have subse- quent effects on commerce, industry, and the everyday lives of people in the city. The eastern and northeastern portions of the city have also been exposed to increased sand damage. The airport is also surrounded by dunes, which have been encroaching onto the runway and disturbing operations. Areas in L’Aftout es Saheli, a long and narrow coastal lagoon of Nouakchott, remain unaf- fected, as do other locations where urban growth has paved over the sand. But this increase in asphalt has its own set of negative consequences (described in the earlier section, “Urbanization”). Source: IIED 2009. Climate Change Affects Urban Livelihoods and Living Conditions 219 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has pro- jected that climate change will reduce the availability of water for urban water supply systems. Higher temperatures and reduced precipitation are expected to cause supply shortages because of slower aquifer replenish- ment rates and reduced amounts of surface water (Danilenko, Dickson, and Jacobsen 2010). Arab cities already struggle to supply adequate water resources to their populations, so any further exacerbation to this sensi- tive sector could have significant impacts. According to Assaf (2010), in- adequate urban water services result in lower standards of living. In 2002, the Food and Agriculture Organization reported that piped water sup- plies in many Arab cities, including Amman, Beirut, Damascus, and Sana’a, were intermittent. This forced many urban residents to use pri- vate water vendors, which do not have the same accountability or safe- guards in place to provide a quality product (WHO 2005). In many cases, this meant that poor urban residents supplemented their supplies with lower-quality water (Assaf 2010). Many cities fail to properly maintain their water utility networks. Without routine maintenance, the operational life of an aging water in- frastructure may be exceeded, resulting in perpetually increasing costs. Because of poor maintenance, it is estimated that Beirut and Casablanca lose up to 40 percent of their water supplies through leaks, while Damas- cus is estimated to lose approximately 64 percent (WHO 2005). Leaking water distribution systems can also lead to contamination and ground instability (Wheater and Evan 2009). In addition to natural water scarcity, other factors can also cause de- mand to outstrip supply. These factors include unauthorized taps (Sana’a), unmetered usage (Beirut), and water pricing that is below market value (Alavian et al. 2009; Assaf 2010). Because of the unauthorized taps of ground water through private wells, Sana’a may be the first city in the world to run out of water (Hudes 1999). Wastewater Treatment and Rainwater Catchment Provide Additional Water Sources With increasing urban populations, the amount of human wastewater is rising. This, combined with the scarcity of water, has already led many Arab countries to embrace wastewater treatment and reuse. In cities, treated wastewater, or “gray water,” can be used for sustaining stream flows and wetlands; groundwater recharge; watering for landscaping, gar- dens, parks, street medians, and golf courses; fire protection; industrial uses; and domestic uses such as laundry, cleaning, toilet flushing, and air conditioning. Dual treatment and distribution systems have even allowed some cities such as Windhoek, Namibia, and Tokyo, Japan, to supply 220 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE 5.2 Wastewater Treatment Capacity of Selected Arab Economies Economy Capacity Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi • Adhere to strict quality standards Arabia, and United Arab Emirates • Have the capacity to treat a high percentage of wastewater • Use a high percentage of the treated wastewater in agriculture and landscape irrigation and the additional treated water is disposed of at sea Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, • Follow moderate regulations that do not meet national or Morocco, and Syrian Arab Republic international standards • Because of a lack of capacity to handle large loads of wastewater, effluent is frequently disposed of in surface water bodies for later agricultural use • The governments restrict the dumping of raw wastewater into wadis Lebanon, West Bank and Gaza, and • Have little to no capacity or regulation to treat and reuse Republic of Yemen wastewater • Large amounts of raw wastewater are released into wadis and used in agriculture Source: Choukr-Allah 2010. potable water through wastewater treatment (UNEP and GEC 2005). Wastewater reuse also decreases the impact of anthropogenic pollution in the environment from wastewater dumping. Some cities in the region, such as Amman and Damascus, already have highly effective wastewater treatment facilities, with additional treat- ment plants under construction in several other cities. Still, the capacity to treat wastewater falls well short of the total amount that could be treated. For example, the Arab Republic of Egypt, as a country, has the capacity to treat nearly 1.6 billion cubic meters per year of municipal wastewater, but the amount of wastewater produced in Alexandria and Cairo alone already exceeds this amount (Choukr-Allah 2010). Arab countries were ranked, in descending order, from greatest capacity to lowest, according to their wastewater treatment capacity and practices (table 5.2) (Choukr-Allah 2010). Rainwater harvesting, much like wastewater reuse, also increases the amount of water available in urban areas. Historically, rainwater harvest- ing has been used in the region for 2,000 years. The Nabateans used rainwater both for drinking water and agriculture to support their desert cities (Lange et al. 2011). A recent study in the West Bank shows that nearly 87 percent of the total rainfall in an average rainy season can be harvested. This is equivalent to about 480 millimeters of rainfall (Lange et al. 2011). Climate Change Affects Urban Livelihoods and Living Conditions 221 Arab Cities Are Responding to Climate Changes Ancient Arab settlements were built of local materials, such as mud brick and stone, using traditional techniques to keep them comfortable in the desert heat. Reflecting on traditional architecture and planning tech- niques can make future construction more responsive to local conditions. While designing the modern city of Masdar in the United Arab Emirates, architects researched vernacular architectural techniques from the region and concluded that, “settlements were often built on high ground . . . to take advantage of the stronger winds. Some also used tall, hollow ‘wind towers’ to funnel air down to street level. And the narrowness of the streets—which were almost always at an angle to the sun’s east-west tra- jectory, to maximize shade—accelerated airflow through the city. . . .” (Ouroussoff 2010). Building Codes Can Reduce Vulnerability As a response to the region’s housing shortfall in cities and rapid urban growth, building construction has expanded. For example, Beirut, divided and damaged by years of war, expanded significantly to provide housing for internal migrants (refer to map 5.1). More recently, coastal lands have been reclaimed for the development of affluent housing and malls (UN ESCWA 2009a). Much of this new construction has not followed traditional Arab meth- ods, but instead, uses designs that were popularized in other parts of the world. These designs are often ill-suited to the Arab climate. New urban centers, such as Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Dubai, showcase modern high rises with glass facades—the antithesis of thermal massing. These build- ings, used for both residential and commercial purposes, feature inoper- able windows; combined with the region’s rising temperatures, high rises create a huge energy demand to power air-conditioning systems (Gelil 2009). This leads to greater greenhouse gas emissions, a major contribu- tor to the greenhouse effect and global warming. As a response, many countries around the world have begun imple- menting “green” building codes.1 The term green building refers to all processes related to an environmentally responsible structure, through- out the life cycle of a building (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2010). Building codes can be used to create more robust structures that will be better suited to the increased temperatures and storms expected with climate change. Additional benefits to green buildings include an increased return on investment through reduced energy, operating, and maintenance costs; increased sales and leasing potential of buildings; bet- 222 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries ter occupant health and productivity; and reduced use of fossil fuels (LGBC 2011). International assessment and certification systems for green buildings have emerged over the past two decades. These systems include the Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM) in the United Kingdom in 1990, Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) in the United States in 1998, and Green Star in Australia in 2003 (IBE 2011). No unified assessment system for green buildings has been developed so far for the Arab region, but indi- vidual countries or subregions have formulated their own methods for assessing the environmental impact of building projects. The Council of Arab Housing and Construction Ministers, formed by the League of Arab States, has been working since the 1990s to prepare unified building codes for the Arab region. Six stages from this plan were finalized and resulted in the production of 14 unified Arab building codes; other stages are planned. Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates has developed a national system based on LEED, called Estidama (Arabic for sustainability), that includes aspects from its own culture, environment, and ideas of sustainability. The Egyptian Green Building Council devel- oped the Green Pyramid Rating System in January 2009. The system uses a whole-building approach to sustainability (EGBC 2009, 2011). A green building rating system in Lebanon was launched in 2011 by the Lebanon Green Building Council with support from the Interna- tional Finance Corporation. The system is termed the ARZ Building Rat- ing System, after the famous Lebanese cedar tree. The ARZ system meets minimum international environmental requirements while taking into account local conditions in Lebanon. A green building audit was con- ducted during the development of the ARZ that revealed the system would reduce greenhouse gas emissions and would result in a consider- able return on investments and an average payback period of two to three years (CWO 2011; LGBC 2011). The Jordan Green Building Council was established in October 2009 as a nongovernmental organization, and the Jordan National Building Council has recently published the “Guide for Green Buildings in Jor- dan.” Although it is a guide rather than a code, it is expected that it will provide the technical standards to reach sustainability for new buildings and provide the background to produce green building codes for Jordan in the near future. Urban Greening Can Reduce Heat Impacts To combat localized climate conditions such as increasing temperatures or severe drought, some Arab cities, such as Amman, Cairo, Casablanca, Climate Change Affects Urban Livelihoods and Living Conditions 223 and Rabat, have begun urban greening projects. These projects typically involve the planting of drought resistant vegetation, which serves to re- duce the urban heat island effect, decrease air pollution, and absorb ex- cess rainfall and even CO2. Oftentimes these projects include irrigation systems, which maintain a level of micromoisture and sustain the new plants. In Amman, these plans include the planting of native species of trees and bushes and using treated wastewater for landscape irrigation (figure 5.3). Weak Governance Contributes to Lack of Adaptation Action Despite the modest efforts described previously, many challenges remain in increasing the resilience of Arab cities to climate change. According to Fünfgeld (2010), there are four institutional challenges that prevent cities from effectively adapting to climate change: • A lack of knowledge on emerging scientific information on climate change and its impact on cities (global models, downscaling, and so on); • A limited understanding of how broader socioeconomic processes in- fluence urban vulnerability; • The insufficient integration of information on climate change vulner- ability into local planning processes and development agendas; and • The absence of a suitable governance framework for climate-risk man- agement in cities. In many Arab countries, long-standing governing structures are chang- ing. The Arab Spring and the independence of the Republic of South Sudan have illustrated that social groups are demanding democratic rep- resentation after years of “skewed access to political power and wealth,” (UNDP 2009, 56). According to the United Nations Economic and So- cial Commission for Western Asia, the history of state-centered manage- ment is being challenged (UN ESCWA 2009a). Still, relying for years on powerful national governments has meant that local governments and municipalities have developed a very low ca- pacity to adapt to climate change. This is a problem because local govern- ments are in a much better position to understand the diverse relation- ships, resources, and vulnerabilities of local communities to climate change (Ashwill, Flora, and Flora 2011). In addition, local authorities are present and accountable during the planning, implementation, and moni- toring of projects within their jurisdiction (World Bank, forthcoming). This makes them a much more effective facilitator of climate change 224 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 5.3 Climate-Sensitive Streetscape in Amman: An Urban Greening Project, Before and After a. Existing b. Planned Mixed use development enhanced by retail space on ground levels, Public Pedestrian Public zero front setbacks transport path open spaces Bus Reused water Drip irrigation Native drought Rapid Bus station Used for irrigation For more efficient resistant plants to help preserve irrigation adapted to local natural resources temperature conditions Source: GAM 2011. Climate Change Affects Urban Livelihoods and Living Conditions 225 adaptation than their national counterparts, who lack the site-specific knowledge to plan efficiently at the local level. General knowledge related to urban issues and climate change is also lacking. Much of existing climate change research, both globally and within the region, fails to properly account for urban issues. In fact, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (Wilbanks et al. 2007) recognizes that the urbanization effect is missing from global climate model projec- tions (Christensen et al. 2007). Although they are referenced in AR4, urban planning strategies for adaptation and mitigation are not compre- hensively reviewed. Fortunately, it is expected that the next IPCC assess- ment report will cover more adaptation and mitigation strategies that relate to urban settlements and infrastructure (IPCC 2009). In some cases, the lack of knowledge and institutional capacity has led to egregious examples of negligence. In 2008, the Al-Duwayqa landslide in Cairo killed 119 slum residents. It was later determined that officials had known the imminent risks to residents but failed to act (Amnesty International 2010). Policy Makers Have Opportunities to Make Cities More Resilient From the previous discussion, several conclusions and actionable recom- mendations emerge. Policy makers, urban planners, and development practitioners should take these into account as they examine the specific ways in which to design responsive and effective urban adaptation strate- gies. These strategies must go beyond responding to the impacts and di- sasters associated with climate change and be proactive in addressing the root causes of vulnerability to severe weather events and long-term changes to the climate. Adaptation must look to reduce the relative expo- sure and sensitivity of urban communities to climate change while aiming to strengthen the adaptive capacity of the populations living in them. Urban poverty reduction measures should continue. The case can be made that poverty is the single most important indicator in determining human vulnerability to climate change. Poor people have the least re- sources available to adapt to the climate and often live, or have assets, in the most disaster-prone areas. Sound development strategies are typically sound climate change adaptation strategies. Several studies have shown that climate change impacts are diverse, long term, and difficult to pre- dict, so responses should be designed to be beneficial under all possible climate scenarios (Ashwill, Flora, and Flora 2011; Heltberg, Siegel, and 226 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Jorgensen 2009; World Bank 2010b). This means that many urban devel- opment initiatives that aim to reduce poverty should be continued and strengthened. It has been shown that many cities in the Arab region are growing rapidly and already struggle to provide the basic delivery of qual- ity services to their growing populations. Improving basic services, espe- cially for the urban poor, will improve the capacity of these residents to cope with environmental challenges and hazards related to climate change. Disaster risk reduction strategies are also important responses to climate change. Disaster preparedness involves raising public awareness, training police and civil defense emergency units, and developing respon- sive disaster forecasting systems. Refer to box 5.3 for more specifics on increasing disaster preparedness. Urban greening projects should be enhanced at a scale that matches urbanization rates. This chapter has demonstrated that urban growth contributes to human vulnerability in cities. The settlement of hazard- prone land and the encroachment onto, and destruction of, natural eco- systems that regulate air temperatures, stabilize hills, absorb excess rain- fall, and cleanse water and air supplies increases the vulnerability of all urban residents, particularly the poor. Therefore, the greening of urban areas through urban reforestation projects, vegetative restoration (espe- cially around water sources), and other activities will go a long way in minimizing the worst impacts from climate change. This can be a difficult task in the Arab countries, which are known for their dry and barren land- scapes. However, many modern techniques that maximize water retention (for example, rainwater catchment) or efficient water use (for example, wastewater management and reuse) can be applied to minimize the risks associated with rapid urbanization. It is also important that regulations and the enforcement of zoning and building laws are established so as to discourage urban growth into natural areas. When possible, site-respon- sive architectural and urban design techniques should be used. As seen in traditional architecture, these practices have been proven to work over centuries of implementation in lessening the impact of the climate on daily city life. Many of these urban greening efforts will also function as a carbon sink, thus mitigating the human contribution to climate change. Urban authorities should regulate the informal housing sector and en- force these regulations. It has been shown that some of the most vulner- able people in the Arab cities are those who have built homes in informal settlements. These areas tend to be the most exposed to climate change and environmental hazards. Because the urban poor often use their homes for income generation, this also entails a risk to not only their homes and possessions but also their livelihoods. The regulation of these settlements encompasses several different policy carrots and sticks. Regulators should Climate Change Affects Urban Livelihoods and Living Conditions 227 BOX 5.3 Case Study: Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in the Coastal Cities of North Africa North Africa’s increasingly populous coastal scenarios) that will be cost-effective in these cities face tangible risks today, and these scenarios. will multiply as the impacts of global cli- mate change further manifest themselves. Alexandria. The city of Alexandria is home To better understand the risks these cities to a population of 4.1 million people, with face, and to help them prepare the neces- an expected 65 percent surge to 6.8 million sary adaptive responses, the World Bank inhabitants by the year 2030. The city’s led a two-year study focused on three cities expansion is anticipated to proceed west- critical to the region’s economic, social, ward along the Al-Bouhayra Governorate and political life: Alexandria, Casablanca, border, and to the south. Shoreline areas and Tunis. The study also examined the such as the Abu Quir depression and areas Bouregreg Valley between Rabat and Salé near the Maryut Lake, along with other low-lying spaces, will likely experience an in Morocco, an area that is undergoing influx of people. A recently expanded sea- large-scale urban development. front highway has steepened the seabed and Looking at a mix of factors, including intensified patterns of coastal erosion and expected sea-level rise, patterns of coastal vulnerability to storm surges. erosion, frequency of torrential rainfall and Flooding risks are expected to increase flooding, and housing patterns and urbani- by 2030, particularly if informal settlements zation, the study found that most risks multiply in areas that are already below sea increased over the 2010–30 period. For level and are vulnerable to inundation. Alex- this period, each of the three cities faced andria’s densely urbanized coastline presents cumulative losses of well over US$1 billion an obvious vulnerability, particularly as sea- from all risks (including seismic risk), with level rise, coastal erosion, and the retreat of the portion of risks associated with cli- beaches expose more of the city to submer- mate change increasing. Moreover, looking sion. To minimize the risks, policy makers beyond the 2030 time horizon, sea-level rise can ensure that the 2030 Greater Alexandria would increase further, weather extremes Master Plan, currently under preparation, would become more frequent, and climate takes into account climate change impacts change would account for a still greater por- in directing city growth and setting rules for tion of the risks. Climate change scenarios density and land use. The study also calls involve uncertainty, and because of this, the for improved early warning systems, pos- authors of the study called for both flex- sibly including a network of “smart buoys” ibility and “no-regrets” actions (actions that along the coastline to generate timely data provide benefits under all future climate and provide warning of coastal storms. Alex- (continued) 228 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 5.3 Continued andria could further be made more resil- ure B5.3.1 shows the adaptation cost curve ient with investments in key infrastructure, for Casablanca, identifying the cost-benefit including improved coastal marine defenses ratio for one-time investments, institutional and more robust drainage systems. measures, and infrastructure investments. Casablanca. Casablanca, home to 3.3 mil- Tunis. Compared with the other cities in lion people, with another 300,000 in the this study, Tunis anticipates only a modest surrounding areas, is expected to grow to population growth of 33 percent over the 5.1 million by 2030. The rapid pace of next two decades, increasing from 2.2 mil- urbanization along the waterfront and low- lion in 2010 to nearly 3 million by 2030. lying areas raises major concerns. Slums and Despite this, the city faces special risks of its crowded areas with poorly built structures own. In downtown Tunis, land subsidence add to the risks. leaves some buildings tilting dangerously, The city’s vulnerability to flooding, coastal and seismic risks are amplified by poor soil erosion, and marine inundation will become quality. The coastline is seriously threat- more pronounced in the years leading up to ened by erosion, requiring reinforced beach 2030, with sea levels expected to rise by as defenses. much as 20 centimeters while the beaches Topographical data show that specific retreat by as much as 15 meters. The study areas in the lower downtown area are also identifies specific areas of vulnerability, such vulnerable to marine submersion under as a 10-kilometer coastal segment between certain storm scenarios. By 2030, the fre- eastern Casablanca and Mohammedia that is quency of torrential rainfall could increase already vulnerable to erosion. by 25 percent under widely accepted sce- Urban planning priorities would include narios for climate change. Tunis could face slum rehabilitation and protection plans for an increased recurrence of extreme weather areas that have already been subject to epi- events with shorter cycles of frequency. sodic flooding. Moroccan institutions can Climate-resilient urban planning will be become more responsive and effective by crucial for Tunis in order to manage the removing overlapping functions and simpli- increasing risks. In low-lying areas of the fying operations. Improved information sys- city prone to flooding, upgraded drainage tems would help ensure that people receive systems will be necessary. Illegal housing adequate warnings of potentially dangerous development at the periphery will need to weather. By strengthening coastal defenses be contained. In addition, careful zoning, in areas already subject to erosion and sea with allowance for green spaces, along with surges, the city could protect a number of rigorous enforcement of standards, will be low-lying, densely populated areas. Box Fig- critical. Source: World Bank 2010a. Climate Change Affects Urban Livelihoods and Living Conditions 229 BOX 5.3 Continued FIGURE B5.3.1 Adaptation Cost Curve for Casablanca Protection against 92 marine submersion in Mohammedia 100 MDH Protection against marine submersion out of Cost/benefit ratio Mohammedia Warning system 14 Floods : collective measures 13 Floods : individual measures Protection against erosion : option 1 Protection against 3 erosion : option 2 2 1 0 Note: The vertical column presents the cost-benefit ratio for one-time investments, institutional measures, and infrastructure invest- ments. The bottom red line shows the equilibrium point, above which the benefits exceed the costs. Source: World Bank 2010a. seek to limit the expansion of settlements into high-risk areas. This would include the delineation of “high-risk” areas (prone to landslides, sea-level rise, or other flooding) and establish clear zones where development is either curtailed or totally banned. Of course, simply writing regulations will not solve the problem, so enforcement mechanisms must also be cre- ated with the resources to sustain them. Such a regulatory system must ensure that inhabitants in these zones have access to alternate sites for housing. These alternate sites can be well planned to be climate resilient and “green.” Access to this housing should include plans for formally recognizing the land tenure of residents who have moved or settled in designated areas. Once inhabitants have land tenure, they will also then be eligible for basic services and other social safety nets. Such a system would serve the dual purpose of reducing the exposure of urban residents to climate events and strengthening their adaptive capacity. Still, many 230 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries residents may not want to leave their informal homes, even if threatened by the climate. In these cases, the assisted relocation of households may be necessary. Involuntary resettlement is the least desirable option in that it can do great harm to social and community networks. However, the potential social and financial costs associated with climate disasters can be much higher. National and subnational authorities should work toward improving water supplies and availability in Arab cities. Several policies or actions can contribute to this end. First, illegal water access should be regulated. This includes illegal water taps by a few individuals, which can threaten the supply of many others. Second, water should be properly priced to avoid wasteful consumption. This would need to include safeguards to ensure that all urban residents, regardless of social, political, or financial class, have adequate access to quality supplies. Third, private water ven- dors should be regulated to ensure they are not selling cheap, but unsafe, water. Fourth, water users should be made aware of the dangers of over- consumption. Education platforms on the efficient use of water have been developed in many parts of the world, and these efforts could be repli- cated. Finally, the capacity of cities to treat wastewater must be enhanced. Urban population growth means the increased production of human wastewater. Treated wastewater can be utilized for many purposes, in- cluding, for example, the irrigation of urban greening efforts. The accu- mulation of waste is not a problem that is going away for cities, and it is likely to get worse before it gets better. Urban water drainage systems should be improved or relieved from the pressure of managing floods. As was mentioned, poorly designed drainage systems can lead to major calamities related to flooding and turn mild floods into major crises. To improve these systems, drainage infra- structure should be designed to handle worst-case flood scenarios. This can be based on proper statistical analyses of hydrological records with full consideration of projected changes to the climate. It is also important to take into account the adverse effect of sea-level rise on the effectiveness of current drainage systems in coastal areas. Table 5.3 outlines a variety of flood-risk management measures that can decrease the pressure of storm water on drainage systems. Efforts should be made to improve the capacity of local governments to lead climate change adaptation efforts. Because climate change impacts are manifested at the local level, there are major limits as to how well central governments can engage in planning for climate resilience. Broad changes in climate can have very locally specific consequences, and it is important that governments at this level are empowered to respond ef- Climate Change Affects Urban Livelihoods and Living Conditions 231 TABLE 5.3 Flood-Risk Management Measures in Urban Areas Size of the urban area Noncoastal Coastal Small Conveyance: channels, storm Resettlement/retreat drainage, and floodplain restoration Defenses Storage: pond/basin and rainwater Conveyance: storm drainage and harvesting floodplain restoration Sustainable urban drainage Storage: pond/basin Infiltration Sustainable urban drainage Building design, resilience/resistance Building design, resilience/resistance Wetlands and environmental buffers Wetlands and environmental buffers Medium Defenses Defenses Conveyance: channels and storm Conveyance: storm drainage drainage Storage: pond/basin and rainwater Storage: pond/basin and rainwater harvesting harvesting Sustainable urban drainage Sustainable urban drainage Building design, resilience/resistance Infiltration Wetlands and environmental buffers Building design, resilience/resistance Large Defenses Defenses Conveyance: channels, storm Conveyance: storm drainage drainage, and diversion Storage: pond/basin/public square Storage: pond/basin/public square Sustainable urban drainage and dam Building design, resilience/resistance Sustainable urban drainage Barrier and barrage systems Building design, resilience/resistance Solid waste management Solid waste management Source: Jha et al. 2011. fectively. To do this, local governments should be provided the resources, mandate, and trainings needed to respond to climate change. It is also important that they are held accountable for improving climate resil- ience. This means that clear and attainable targets should be set (in con- sultation with all relevant stakeholders). It is true that the deficiency of knowledge is a key constraint to local adaptation. Therefore, city and municipal governments should have key roles in ensuring that there is a clear and widely disseminated information base about climate change, its threats, and possible responses. Sharing local knowledge among Arab municipalities on appropriate climate change adaptation measures is en- couraged, as many cities have successful, but unrecognized, climate change initiatives under way (box 5.4). 232 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 5.4 The Need for a Climate-Resilient Arab Energy Sector The Arab energy sector impacts regional tions can have far-reaching implications development and global markets. The given that energy systems tend to be cen- energy sector plays a vital role in the socio- tralized and serve large populated areas. economic development of the Arab coun- Furthermore, storms can also negatively tries, many of which are endowed with vast affect the transmission and distribution of hydrocarbon resources. The Arab countries power and oil, gas, and other fuels. Distri- hold nearly 58 percent of global oil reserves bution systems are vulnerable to extreme and nearly 29 percent of global gas reserves weather events such as falling trees, for exam- (OAPEC 2010). In addition, there is a huge ple, caused by storms. This is also true in the potential for the development of renewable case of oil and gas pipelines, which run for energy resources such as solar and wind. Oil thousands of kilometers in the Arab region, and gas revenues, estimated at US$571 bil- and are exposed to storms, storm-related lion in 2008, have been the major source landslides, erosion processes, and floods. of income in most of the Arab countries, Renewable energy sources are also vul- especially in the Gulf Cooperation Coun- nerable to the impacts of climate change. cil (GCC) region. According to the Arab Solar, wind, hydropower, and thermal tech- Monetary Fund, the oil and gas sector nology are designed for specific climatic makes up about 38 percent of the total Arab conditions. Solar energy generation can gross domestic product (AMF 2010). The be affected by extreme weather events and Arab region hosts about 7.8 million bar- increased air temperature that can alter the rels per day of oil refining capacity to meet efficiency of photovoltaic (PV) cells and domestic demand of petroleum products reduce PV electrical generation (World and exports around 2.9 million barrels a day Bank 2011b). Climate-induced water scar- to international markets. Oil refining is also city, drought, and sandstorms would also a large water consumer and is thus affected decrease the efficiency of PV solar systems. by water shortages. Climate-induced dis- Natural seasonal variability of wind speed ruptions in Arab refineries would severely has a significant impact on the energy pro- impact the global energy market. duced from wind turbines. Alterations in the wind speed frequency distribution can Climate change will impact both energy affect the optimal match between power supply and demand. Extreme weather availability from natural resources and events can result in devastating economic the output of wind turbines. The amount and social impacts on energy infrastructure. of hydroelectricity that can be generated Oil- and gas-producing facilities in some depends on the variation in water inflows coastal low-lying areas vulnerable to sea- to a plant’s reservoirs. A large number of level rise and offshore facilities might also thermal power plants in the Arab region, be vulnerable to extreme weather events especially in the GCC region, are located such as storms, which would lead to breaks near coastal areas. Lower levels of precipita- in production (API 2008). These disrup- tion and higher temperatures will negatively Climate Change Affects Urban Livelihoods and Living Conditions 233 BOX 5.4 Continued influence the cooling processes of power (KACST 2010). The strong interdepend- plants and even a modest variation in ambi- ency between energy, water, and climate ent temperature may represent a significant change makes it imperative that climate drop in energy supplies. adaptation policy formulation be coordi- In relation to supply, the Arab region is nated across these sectors. expected to be warmer and drier, which will Adaptation options need to be imple- increase the use for domestic air-condition- mented. Energy infrastructure and tech- ers and desalination. In turn, this will have nology are long-term capital investments. unforeseen effects on energy consumption. Therefore, it is important that energy plan- As seen elsewhere in this chapter, modern ners, policy makers, and consumers be well building techniques have led many cities prepared for these climate change impacts in the Arab countries to depend on mecha- so that necessary adaptation measures can nized cooling systems rather than on natural be taken. Energy systems must be adapted ventilation. Moreover, much like renewable to withstand anticipated climate change energy sources, desalination technology and its impacts. This can be achieved by depends on very specific climatic conditions increasing the resilience of the energy sys- and sea temperatures to operate efficiently. tem. Options include diversifying energy Energy supply affects water availability supplies to ensure the security of sup- in the Arab countries. A significant share ply, proper siting of energy facilities away of energy is used across the Arab countries from vulnerable geographic areas, promot- in groundwater abstraction, desalination, ing regional energy integration to share treatment, transfer, and distribution. Pro- energy resources during emergency situa- jected climate change–induced declines in tions, disaster preparedness planning, and freshwater supplies and increases in demand risk management. in the region would increase energy require- Climate impact assessments and adapta- ments for all these activities. Projected tion planning should be mainstreamed into increases in average air and water tempera- the environmental impacts and strategic tures and limited availability of adequate environmental assessments of the energy cooling water supplies are expected to affect sector. Infrastructure projects including the efficiency, operation, and development energy should take climate-proofing into of new power plants. account. In this context, improving energy Fossil-based combined heat and power efficiency and scaling up renewable energy thermal plants are commonly used for water technologies would also be considered desalination in the Arab region, which hosts to further expand the portfolio of energy nearly 50 percent of the world’s desalina- options. In addition to improving future tion capacity (AFED 2010). Saudi Arabia energy availability, this could also help to is already producing 18 percent of the reduce the need among nearly 60 million world’s desalinated water, and this is pro- Arabs who currently lack access to modern jected to double to meet growing demand energy services (AFED 2011). Source: Authors’ compilation. 234 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Note 1. 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Canziani, Jean P. Palutikof, Paul J. van der Linden, and Clair E. Hanson, 357–90. Cambridge, U.K.: Cam- bridge University Press. World Bank. 2010a. Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Preparedness in the Coastal Cities of North Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank. ———. 2010b. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. Washington, DC: World Bank. ———. 2011a. Syria Rural Development in a Changing Climate: Increasing Resilience of GDP, Poverty and Well-Being. Washington, DC: World Bank. ———. 2011b. “Climate Impacts on Energy Systems: Key Issues for Energy Sec- tor Adaptation.” World Bank, Washington, DC. http://data.worldbank.org/ indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS/countries/1W-1A?display=graph. ———. Forthcoming. Mayors’ Task Force on Urban Poverty and Climate Change. Washington, DC: World Bank. CHAPTER 6 Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience Many Arab countries rely heavily on tourism for revenue, employment, and foreign currency. Tourism can also reduce dependence on traditional revenue sources (box 6.1). The average overall industry impact on the economy of Arab countries is 11 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).1 The contribution of tourism to GDP varies across Arab coun- tries, with eight countries (the Arab Republic of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates) receiving 93 percent of tourism revenue. Climate change will affect tourist attractions and facilities because of coastal erosion and flooding, saline intrusion, temperature increase, and extreme events. The largest and most immediate threat to tourism will be large losses in biodiversity caused by increased temperatures. Adaptive responses can diversify and expand the tourism sector into areas with higher returns and less exposed destinations. Climate change adaptation is increasingly being mainstreamed into national development planning and tourism policies in Arab countries (box 6.2). Tourism Is Important for Economic Growth, Foreign Exchange, and Employment The tourism sector provides opportunities for economic growth and di- versification and the potential to develop economic resilience to climate change. It also gives people the opportunity to diversify their livelihoods by providing a source of income independent of oil and agriculture. Photograph by Dorte Verner 241 242 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 6.1 Promotion of Traditional Culture in Oman Oman focuses on traditional culture in the development of tourism. The government has made an effort to diversify its economy away from oil and to prioritize tourism by leveraging historic heritage, natural beauty, folklore, and traditional industries. His Majesty Sultan Qaboos initiated the planting of 1 million date palms and 100,000 coconut trees to emphasize their traditional contribution as food, fuel, raw materials for housing and shelter, clothing, and handicrafts. The cityscape has maintained its traditional look with building codes that require maintenance of traditional architecture (Kamoonpuri 2010). Oman’s rich natural landscape provides a varied and fascinat- ing experience with its mountains, deserts, and wadis. Developing adventure tourism and ecotourism leverages these assets. Over- night hotel stays grew by 240 percent between 2001 and 2009 because more visitors were attracted and they stayed longer (BMI 2011). Photograph by Dorte Verner Sources: Authors, based on BMI 2011; Kamoonpuri 2010. Travel Has Always Played an Important Role in the Arab Culture For thousands of years, the Arab region has attracted travelers, and the industry serving these travelers has constantly adapted to take advantage of new opportunities. By 3000 BCE, a strong network of trade and travel Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience 243 BOX 6.2 Tunisian Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation of the Tourism Industry The Tunisian National Strategy for Adaptation of the Tourism Industry recognizes the need for effective adaptation to climate change. The strategy recommends immediate adaptation mea- sures to maintain Tunisia’s prime position as an attractive tourist destination and to limit the risk of losing the competitive edge to other locations. The primary adaptation proposal focuses on actions that are beneficial regardless of climate change and includes actions to reduce dependence on fossil fuel, improve energy effi- ciency, conserve water, and limit the exposure of tourist facilities. Climate change should be considered both in the renovation of existing buildings and in the development of new facilities, with strict enforcement of building and zoning codes. One specific recommendation is to reduce Tunisia’s reliance on beach-and-sun vacation tourism and to expand tourism into cultural heritage. The report also mentions specific opportunities for development, such as the expansion of natural heritage and biodiversity tourism in the area from Tabarka to Bizerte and in mountainous areas. Photograph by Dorte Verner Source: Authors, based on TEC 2010. routes linked the resource-rich mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan with the emerging civilizations of the ancient Near East (ArchAtlas 2006; Majidzadeh 1982). The history of the region was shaped by mixing cul- tures and peoples: the great civilizations of Anatolia, Egypt, Mesopotamia, 244 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 6.1 International Tourism by Destination 1,600 1.6 billion ● 1,400 1,200 Tourists, millions 1,000 940 million ● 800 600 528 million ● 400 200 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Actual Forecast Middle East Africa Asia and the Pacific Americas Europe Source: UNWTO 2011a. and Persia interacted with each other and with Greeks, Minoans, Myce- naeans, Phoenicians, and Romans from the western Mediterranean to cre- ate a rich cultural heritage. By the eighth century CE, the tourism indus- try was flourishing, with taverns, inns, shops, and services catering to visitors (Ansary 2009). Travel narratives and tours by Thomas Cook and Son initiated a European travel craze to the Middle East in the late 19th century. Beginning in the 1970s, modern tourists have increasingly sought out destinations in the Arab region (figure 6.1; see also Waleed 1997). Tourism Provides Significant Economic Value Global tourism is a major economic sector with great potential for future growth. The United Nations World Tourist Organization (UNWTO) reports global international tourism receipts of US$919 billion from 940 million tourists in 2010. In the next 20 years, UNWTO (2011b) ex- pects the global tourism industry to grow by 3.3 percent per year, a rate only slightly lower than the average since 2005 (3.9 percent). In 2020, UNWTO forecasts 1.6 billion global international tourist arrivals, with an estimated 96 million to 128 million tourists destined for the Arab re- gion on the basis of its current market share (figure 6.2). Tourism to the Arab region has been growing at a very high pace over the past two decades (figure 6.1). The number of arrivals to the Middle Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience 245 FIGURE 6.2 Number of Tourist Arrivals in Selected Arab Countries, 2005–10 16 14 Egypt, Arab Rep. 12 Saudi Arabia Tourists, millions 10 Morocco Bahrain Syrian Arab Republic 8 United Arab Emirates Tunisia 6 Kuwait Jordan 4 2 Algeria Lebanon 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: UNWTO 2011a, 2011b. East and North Africa grew from 16.6 million to 54.7 million from 1990 to 2010—equivalent to an annualized growth of 6 percent (UNWTO 2011b). The largest growth happened from 2005 to 2008, when arrivals grew by 10 percent per year (UNWTO 2011a, 2011d). Interim reports for 2011 indicate an 8 percent overall decline in tour- ism, with higher losses in countries with greater levels of insecurity re- lated to the Arab Spring (UNWTO 2012). Arab tourists to the region amount to 52 percent of all international arrivals. At 10 percent of all international tourists, nationals residing abroad represent the largest group of tourists. They predominantly vis- ited Algeria and Morocco. The second-largest group originates from Saudi Arabia (9 percent), with half going to Bahrain (figure 6.3). European tourists constitute 32 percent of all international arrivals, with the majority being French and German. They arrive mainly to ex- plore exotic and historic sites. The majority travel to Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, with each of these countries receiving slightly less than one- third of European arrivals.2 International tourists to Arab countries provide significant economic benefits (table 6.1). In 2009, 71.5 million tourists generated US$50.2 bil- lion in revenue, constituting a direct contribution of 3 percent to GDP. If all the indirect economic contributions by tourist-related capital invest- ments are included, the impact of tourism climbs to 11 percent of GDP. With 27.6 million tourist arrivals, the Mashreq receives the most tour- ists in the Arab region, resulting in a total contribution to GDP of 17 per- 246 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 6.3 Origination of Tourists to the Arab Region, 2005–09 Americas 3% Africa 1% Asia 11% Uncategorized 1% Europe Arab World 32% 52% East Central / Mediterranean Eastern Europe 2.3% Europe 2.2% North Africa 3% Nationals uncategorized Russian residing 1.7% Federation abroad 10% 2.8% Arab World Italy 2.8 (other) 10% Southern France 8.3% Saudi Arabia Europe 2.0% United Arab 9% United Emirates 3% Kingdom 3.8% Egypt, Arab Kuwait 4% Germany 3.6% Republic 3% Northern Syrian Arab Lebanon Western Libya Europe Republic 4% Europe 4% Other 1.2% 3% (other) 2.9% Source: UNWTO 2011b. cent. With regard to arrivals and tourist spending, Egypt has the largest tourism sector in the Arab region, providing total revenues of US$38 bil- lion, or 20 percent of GDP, but Lebanon is the most dependent on tour- ism with one-third of its GDP accounted for by total tourist-related rev- enue. Jordan has a significant tourism sector at 12 percent of GDP. The Maghreb receives a third less than the other regions, but tourism is an important sector for Morocco and Tunisia, earning 7.2 percent and 6.4 percent of GDP, respectively (map 6.1). The Gulf states receive almost as many international arrivals as the Mashreq, but with the exception of Bahrain, they rely less on tourism. At 20 percent of GDP, however, the total economic contribution of tourism to Bahrain’s economy is equal to that of Egypt. In addition, specific areas within countries may depend on tourism; for example, Dubai relies increas- ingly on tourism revenue (Economist 2012; Malik 2012; see also table 6.1). Tourism contributes a significant and growing share of employment in the Arab region, providing direct employment to about 5 percent of Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience 247 TABLE 6.1 Tourism Revenue and Direct Contribution to GDP Relative to GDP in 2009 Tourism Total Tourism Total GDP receipts contribution receipts contribution relative to relative to (US$ million) (US$ million) GDP (%) GDP (%) Maghreb Algeria 267 12,471 0.2 8.9 Libya 50 2,928 0.1 5.0 Morocco 6,557 16,580 7.2 18.2 Tunisia 2,773 7,771 6.4 17.9 Maghreb total 9,647 39,750 2.9 11.9 Mashreq Egypt, Arab Rep. 10,755 38,026 5.7 20.2 Iraq n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Jordan 2,911 5,682 12.2 23.8 Lebanon 6,774 11,626 19.4 33.3 Syrian Arab Republic 3,757 6,980 7.0 12.9 West Bank and Gaza n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Mashreq total 24,197 62,314 6.6 17.0 LDCs Comoros n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Djibouti 16 n.a. 1.5 n.a. Mauritania n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Yemen, Rep. 496 2,498 2.0 9.9 Somalia n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Sudan 299 n.a. 0.6 n.a. LDCs total 811 n.a. 1.0 n.a. Gulf Bahrain 1,118 3,948 5.8 20.4 Kuwait 248 9,384 0.2 8.6 Oman 700 4,564 1.5 9.7 Qatar 179 4,761 0.2 4.9 Saudi Arabia 5,995 26,777 1.6 7.1 United Arab Emirates 7,352 38,297 2.7 14.2 Gulf total 15,592 87,731 1.7 9.5 Grand total 50,247 189,795 3.0 11.2 Sources: Adopted from IMF 2011; UNWTO 2011a. Note: LDCs = Least developed countries; n.a. = not applicable. International tourism receipts include all tourism receipts from expenditures made by visitors from abroad. Data are gathered in the framework of the balance of payments (UNWTO 2011b). the labor force and an additional 6 percent in auxiliary services in 2010.3 In the past 10 years, employment in the Arab tourist sector grew by 5 percent, with the largest growth taking place in Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and the Republic of Yemen. More mature tourism markets in, Egypt, Lebanon, and Tunisia grew only 2–4 percent (Djernaes, forth- 248 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries MAP 6.1 Direct Tourism Revenues as Share of GDP, 2009 IBRD 39629 10°W 30°E 50°E 40°N Syrian A.R. 7.0% ATLANTIC Lebanon 19.4% OCEAN Jordan 12.2% Iraq N/A Tunisia 6.4% R Raabat Rabat Kuwait 0.2% West Bank and Gaza N/A Morocco 7.2% Bahrain 5.8% MO OR OCC RO OC CC CC CO MOROCCOO 30°N Algeria 0.2% Qatar 0.2% LIB L IB0.1% LIBYA Libya YA YA U.A.E. 2.7% A.R. of Egypt 5.7% Saudi Arabia 1.6% Musca M sc scat Muscat s cat ca c at Re d UN UNIT UN E NIT D ARAB ED UNITED AR AB RABB 20°N MAURITANIA MAU MA MAURIT UR IT RIT ANIA TAN Mauritania N/A OMAN O MA MA N OMA 20°N Se Oman 1.5% a Sudan 0.6% Rep. of Yemen 2.0% DJIBOUTI DJ D DJIB J JIBBOUT O T IBOUT 10°N 10°N Djibouti 1.5% Somalia N/A South Sudan N/A S SOMALIA SO O OM MA MALI A ALIA ATLANTIC OCEAN 0° 0° INDIAN OCEAN This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank 10°S INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any 10°S endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 0 500 Kilometers 10°W 0° 10°E NOVEMBER 2012 Sources: Authors’ representation, based on IMF 2011; UNWTO 2011a, 2011b. coming). In Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia, tourism contributes more than 15 percent of employment. Lebanon is an outlier with the highest contribution to total employment at 31 percent. Employment in the tourism sector is directly correlated with the sec- tor’s GDP contribution. The economies gain on average just under US$40,000 in increased GDP for each full-time employee in the tourism sector.4 In general, the highest returns are to be gained from medical tourism (Jordan, Lebanon, and Tunisia). The range of return on recre- ational and nature tourism is extensive and depends on the degree of luxury provided and on the visitors’ purchasing power. Nationals residing abroad provide the lowest return since they often stay with family or friends and have limited interest in tourism offerings (Morocco) (see table 6.6, later in this chapter). International tourism contributes important foreign currency to sev- eral economies: in 2009, tourism receipts for all countries in the Mashreq and Morocco were in excess of 24 percent of the total exports of goods and services, and Tunisia took in 14 percent of its foreign currency from tourism. Tourism is a less important provider of foreign currency for the hydrocarbon-rich Gulf states (World Bank 2011). Average tourist spending is especially high in Egypt, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates. Tourists to those countries spend more than Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience 249 US$900 on average per stay. Lebanon specifically caters to tourists with a high average spending, which was US$3,660 in 2009. Part of that higher spending may be attributed to Lebanon’s medical tourism (Con- nell 2010). Climate Change Has a Significant Impact on the Tourism Industry Climate change will directly affect the tourism industry by rises in tem- perature, increased aridity, more severe weather, more frequent flooding, increases in water salinity, coastal erosion, and changes in the timing of the seasons. These impacts will affect each tourist segment differently. Climate change will also have indirect impacts on tourism since it may increase migration, cause political instability, create health risks, and spark tariffs on greenhouse gas emissions. Climate Change Will Directly Affect the Tourism Industry Climate and customary vacation periods determine tourist seasons. Tem- perature changes may alter a destination’s appeal, rendering it less attrac- tive or even unpleasant. Recent surveys and analyses of tourism patterns suggest that attractiveness peaks at locations with a current monthly aver- age temperature of 21°C (Lise and Tol 2002); under climate change, the northern Mediterranean countries will likely benefit in the long term more than those to the south (Bigano et al. 2006). However, tourism flows are driven by a multitude of factors. For example, surveys show that many tourists select their destination before checking climate and weather details, and beach tourists simply seek out hot destinations, as do those from colder countries (Moreno and Amelung 2009). Climate change will require changes in the details of how facilities are promoted, shifts in peak seasons, and the types of activities; but climate will be only one of many factors prompting shifts in the promotion of tourism. Econometric analy- ses of domestic and international tourism showed that a trend would oc- cur in which tourists would select higher-latitude and higher-altitude destinations. This finding suggests that many would-be tourists in cooler countries may simply stay home in the new, warmer conditions (Hamil- ton and Tol 2007b). But in none of the regions studied did climate effects reverse the underlying potential for growth in the tourism sector. A larger cause for concern in the Arab region could be that tourism from within the region might decline if Arab tourists seek cooler destinations; this shift may increase with growing incomes. Surveys have shown that beach tourists dislike beach erosion and arti- ficial coastline structures (Hamilton and Tol 2007a; Phillips and Jones 250 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 6.4 Temperature and Tourist Season in Egypt 40 2.00 30 1.50 Tourists, millions Temperature ° C 20 1.00 10 0.50 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average current temperature + 2° C + 6° C Tourists Sources: Ministry of Tourism of Egypt 2010; MSN Weather 2011. 2006), so beach management may be a particular problem, especially along the Nile Delta. In the region’s warmest countries, the height of the tourist season is in the coldest months. Moderate increases in temperatures may effectively increase the attractiveness of these areas in the tourist season. The height of the tourist season in Egypt, for example, is from October through January, with additional customary vacations in March (for Easter) and July. On average, 1.27 million tourists arrive in the coldest months (Sep- tember through April), and only 1.17 million arrive per month in the warmest period (May through August). Figure 6.4 documents the num- ber of tourists and the temperature by month. Although the country’s attractiveness may increase in the colder months as temperatures increase, significant numbers of tourists may choose not to visit in the warmer periods with temperature increases on the order of 4–6ºC. Worldwide demographic changes will cause the average age of tour- ists to increase. Although older people are more sensitive to heat, they have more flexibility in the timing of their vacations; they may choose to take advantage of the mild winters in the Arab region (Djernaes, forthcoming). Direct operating expenses in the tourism industry will increase with higher temperatures, increased water scarcity, and a greater frequency or magnitude of floods and saline intrusion. Temperature increases will raise electrical needs for cooling and may require new technology. In Lebanon, energy consumption for cooling is projected to increase by Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience 251 about 2 percent for every degree of warming. Declining precipitation may also reduce hydropower generation and further constrain the energy sector (Republic of Lebanon 2011). Water scarcity results in added costs for transport, infrastructure, and desalination facilities. Higher tempera- tures, longer arid periods, and salt intrusion may reduce local food pro- duction and result in higher food prices (Tolba and Saab 2009). Tourist facilities are likely to experience more extreme conditions and will need to secure backup generators for utilities, manage evacuations, and secure sufficient resources to cover business interruptions and damage to losses in infrastructure (Simpson et al. 2008).5 The exposure of the Egyptian tourism industry to climate change is high because a considerable number of Egyptian tourist destinations are in low coastal or river delta areas. Insurance provides measures to spread the financial risks related to disasters and to advance an economy’s ability to recover (Geneva Association 2009; Lester 2010). Correctly structured insurance would provide indications of risks, information on adaptation strategies, incentives to avoid or minimize risks, and preparation for catas- trophes. However, some properties may not be insurable if their exposure is intolerable. The tourism industry can adapt but only at increasing costs. Climate Change Presents Specific Challenges to Certain Tourist Segments Tourists can be categorized on the basis of their motivation for travel: nationals residing abroad, religious observers, Arab vacationers, nature tourists, cultural heritage tourists, and medical tourists. Only 7 percent of international arrivals indicate that they are traveling for business (UN- WTO 2011d).6 Table 6.2 provides a summary of the direct and major indirect impacts of climate change by tourist segment. One-tenth of all tourists are nationals residing abroad;7 this segment is very important for Morocco since it amounts to almost half of all Mo- rocco’s international arrivals.8 Ties to family and friends motivate this group to travel; this growing market segment is therefore less vulnerable to climate change. However, climate change impacts could decrease the attractiveness of locations with the Arab region, which could decrease the frequency and length of trips. Religious tourism is the source of many visitors to Arab countries. The main attraction is Saudi Arabia’s holy sites, including Mecca. Saudi Arabia attracts almost as many tourists as Egypt, and almost 90 percent of tour- ists to Saudi Arabia travel for religious purposes (UNWTO 2011b).9 In 2010, more than 13 million people visited Mecca, with about 2 million during the hajj (McDermott 2011; Travellerspoint 2011). Religious tour- ism is among the least vulnerable sectors to climate change. Nevertheless, 252 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries the pilgrimage includes strenuous walks that can challenge healthy people even in cooler months. Higher temperatures could decrease the number of people able to make the pilgrimage and could lessen interest in repeat- ing it. Over the next decade, the hajj will occur in increasingly warmer months, and then in the hottest months in the 2040s. The difference be- tween the coolest and hottest Hajj months is 10°C. Climate change pro- jections by 2050 indicate a warming of 1–2°C; the ever-improving condi- tions and management of the pilgrimage should be able to accommodate these increases. Cultural heritage has been a significant sector for tourism in Arab countries. Although Egypt leads in this category, other players include Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia. Climate change could affect cultural heritage tourism by deterring tourists who may be reluctant to visit sites in hotter conditions and by the loss of cultural heritage venues from extreme events or chronic damage. The vulnerability of cultural heritage sites is similar to urban areas: higher temperatures, saline intru- sion, flooding, storm effects, and sea-level rise can ruin monuments that are often already in precarious condition. A concern has been raised about high temperatures’ worsening of the impact of humidity on wall paintings in ancient tombs, and this concern will have to be factored into better management of tourist traffic (EEAA 2010). Destinations that are already in danger of flooding will be particularly hard hit. Alexandria, one of many low-lying cities in Egypt, attracts more than a million tourists to its beaches and archaeological sites. A 1995 study found that 28 percent of Alexandria’s land used for tourism is below sea level, and a half-meter rise in sea level would threaten another 49 percent (El Raey 1995; see also Agrawala et al. 2004). Climate change increases this threat and makes the existing efforts to protect the city against inundation even more important. Nature tourism relies on highly diverse natural resources, including landscapes, plant and animal species, and ecosystems. The integrity of the natural environment is a significant factor in the long-term success of tourist destinations (Harms 2010). Natural richness alone does not draw the majority of tourists to the region, but enjoyment of natural abundance becomes an integral part of most vacations. Beach tourism is an important part of the nature tourist segment and constitutes 90 percent of Tunisia’s tourism revenue (Berriane 1999; UNWTO 2011b; World Bank 2008).10 Diving is an increasingly large draw for coastal recreation and is com- pletely dependent on the beauty and health of the coral reefs (box 6.3). It constitutes 5 percent of total revenue regionally. Among international tourists enjoying Egyptian coastal recreation, 21 percent come to dive and an additional 37 percent to snorkel. Diving revenue was estimated at US$117 million with an additional US$221 million of indirect revenues Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience TABLE 6.2 Impacts of Climate Change by Tourist Segment Countries most dependent More frequent Sea salination, Segment on segment Increased temperature Increased aridity extreme weather Increased direct costs Sea-level rise acidification Nationals Algeria, • Low effect, given ties to family • Medium effect if basic • Low effect, given ties • Low effect, given ties • Medium to high effect • Low effect residing Morocco and friends water requirements to family and friends to family and friends of rising sea levels abroad • Potential for less frequent or are met • Potential for less • Potential for less amplified by extreme shorter visits • High effect with lack of frequent or shorter frequent or shorter weather • Potential positive effect if water for basic needs visits visits • High effect if seawater migration increases • No effect likely on intrusion in aquifers spending per trip Religion Saudi Arabia • Low effect; comfort is not a • Medium effect if basic • Potential medium • Low effect • Low effect • No or very low major concern water requirements effect if extreme • Potential for less • Potential high effect effect • Potential high health effects are met weather occurs during frequent or shorter with seawater • Potential high health peak pilgrimage visits intrusion in aquifers effects season • No effect likely on • High effect with severe spending per trip water shortages Arab Bahrain, • Medium effect; the appeal of • Medium effect; this • High effect; weather • Low effect • High to extremely high • Low to medium vacationers Lebanon, familiarity of area is more population may be events that hinder • Potential for less effect; dominant effect United Arab important than weather more tolerant to recreation would frequent or shorter tourist destinations are Emirates conditions increased aridity than be a deterrent for visits extremely vulnerable • Potential positive effect for Europeans recreational tourism in to seawater intrusion, • No effect likely on cooler areas • Potential positive general coastal erosion, and spending per trip effect for less arid sea-level rise • Potential high effect on niche segments destinations (table continues next page) 253 254 Impacts of Climate Change by Tourist Segment Countries most dependent More frequent Sea salination, Segment on segment Increased temperature Increased aridity extreme weather Increased direct costs Sea-level rise acidification Cultural Egypt • Medium to high effect; travel • Medium to high effect; • Very high effect; low • Low effect • High effect if loss of • Low to medium heritage comfort diminishes with tourists will likely seek tolerance for spoiled • Potential for less tourism facilities and effect increased temperatures alternative destinations vacations from frequent or shorter attractions • Potential positive effect for if potable water is extreme weather visits • High effect if seawater colder destinations restricted • Risk of cultural heritage intrusion • No effect likely on • Potential shift of tourism site loss from extreme spending per trip • Risk of cultural heritage season to colder months weather site loss from increased sea levels Nature Egypt • Very high effect; tourists will • Very high to extreme • Very high effect; low • Low effect • High effect, increasing • High effect, seek alternative vacation effect, increasing with tolerance for spoiled • Potential for less with floods increasing with destinations if loss in degree of loss of vacations from frequent or shorter • Rising sea levels and loss of biodiversity is combined with biodiversity and extreme weather visits seawater intrusion may biodiversity and increasing temperatures ecosystems damage facilities and ecosystems • No effect likely on spending per trip infrastructure and limit access Medical Jordan, • Low effect with adequate air • Low effect; as long as • Low to medium effect, • Low effect, as long as • Low to medium effect, • No effect reasons Tunisia conditioning secondary effects depending on location secondary effects depending on location • Possibility of sector being remain low of medical facility remain low of medical facility overwhelmed by increased medical needs Source: Djernaes, forthcoming. Note: Estimates based on available data. Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience 255 BOX 6.3 Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs Distinct fauna and corals, of which 6 percent are endemic, provide good-quality coral reefs in the Red Sea. It has 13 principal coral communities and a rich biodiversity of approximately 1,000 animal species, of which 14 percent of the fish are endemic. Significantly richer biological composition is present in the south because of dif- ferences in reef composition, turbidity, and influxes of nutrient-rich waters from the ocean. Although the Red Sea corals have proved to be more tolerant of high temperatures and siltation than reefs elsewhere, two-thirds are threatened by overfishing, algal blooms, and waste. The Red Sea reefs are considered to be in relatively good condition, but 60 percent are still regarded as threatened. In the Arabian Gulf, 85 percent of corals are considered threatened. Sources: Burke et al. 2011; Chiffings 1995. in 2000 (Cesar 2003). However, without better management to reduce the impacts of tourists on the reefs, revenue was projected to peak in 2012 and decline to half by 2050, without considering any additional damage caused by climate change or the associated bleaching of the coral. Nature tourism is highly dependent on biodiversity, and 40 percent of species are seriously threatened with extinction under the projected 2°C rise in tem- perature (Tolba and Saab 2009). Increasing coastal pressure from storms and elevated sea levels will affect coastlines and lodging facilities. Tourists looking for nature will not endure uncomfortable temperatures if the bio- diversity is lost; they will seek alternative vacation destinations. Arab vacationers predominantly choose Bahrain, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates. These countries are less restrictive about dress and alcohol consumption than other Arab countries, and the appeal of a vacation in a familiar but more liberal environment drives the market for Arab recreation. For example, in Bahrain in 2007, 70 percent of tourists were from the Arab region, with 56 percent from Saudi Arabia (Pew Fo- rum on Religion and Public Life 2011; UNWTO 2011b).11 Although this sector is less climate sensitive than tourism for nature and cultural heritage, industry niches may suffer more than average; the skiing indus- try in Lebanon and Morocco, for example, may be very hard hit by short- ages of snow. Warmer temperatures and reduced precipitation will de- crease residence time, intensity, and depth of snow in the mountains (Republic of Lebanon 2011); in Lebanon, a 2ºC increase in temperature 256 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries could shorten the skiing season from about 100 to 45 days. Coastal tourist destinations in Bahrain, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates are ex- tremely vulnerable to extreme events, floods, saline intrusion, and loss of coastal areas (Tolba and Saab 2009). A portion of these interregional tourists is driven by shopping, with Dubai as a preferred destination. Their travel decisions are unlikely to be affected by climate change. Medical tourism includes a wide array of tourists: temporary visitors from abroad, long-term foreign residents, cross-border health care to people from neighboring countries, and outsourced health care for pa- tients sent abroad by health agencies. Other segments that could grow are wellness tourism and travel for discretionary surgery.12 Morocco is becoming a significant player, and Lebanon has a significant presence in this market. However, solid data on tourism for wellness and discretion- ary surgery are not easily available and are outside the scope of this chapter.13 Medical tourism is a market with great potential for the Arab region. The Middle East attracts 13 percent of European and 2 percent of African and North American medical travelers. Tourists’ choices are predomi- nantly determined by quality of service and cost. Jordan is known as a quality medical provider with Anglophone staff trained at premiere Western hospitals (Pigato 2009). As a result, international medical tour- ism contributed 4 percent of GDP in 2010 (AP 2009). Tunisia has long been a front-runner in medical services to Libya, accounting for 80 per- cent of Tunisia’s health tourism (Pigato 2009). Estimates show that for- eign patients generated a quarter of the revenue and half of the employ- ment in the Tunisian health care sector in 2005 (Lautier 2005). Tunisia’s tremendous success in attracting Europeans for beach tourism combined with its strong health care sector creates opportunities to expand medical tourism. This tourist segment is not highly vulnerable to climate change. Some patients may be more sensitive to higher temperatures, especially if their treatment requires a longer recovery time, requires outpatient care, or is combined with tourism. The market could prefer cooler locations because of the higher heat sensitivity of an aging population. The seg- ment has large risks of exposure to indirect impacts of climate change, discussed below, but with effective management of those impacts, medi- cal services could become a climate-resilient tourist segment. Some Results of Climate Change Will Indirectly Affect Tourism Tariffs on greenhouse gas emissions imposed outside the region may re- duce global tourism as the cost of travel increases (Simpson et al. 2008); the farther tourists need to travel to their destination, the higher the impact. Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience 257 Increased migration as a result of globalization in the past 50 years has strengthened the tourism industry (Mustafa 2010). The desire to visit friends and relatives is a strong motivation for travel. Some destinations have even developed a separate tourism industry for emigrants to return to discover their roots. Climate change may further migration from the Arab region and possibly lead to an expansion of tourism for Arabs re- turning to their country of origin. Political stability is essential for tourism. Lack of access to necessities because of climate change could raise the frequency of local and interna- tional conflicts. Local conflicts over water rights and access to utilities have already occurred: in August 2011, temperatures near 49°C and an electrical shortage led to public protests in Iraq (Arraf 2011). The risk of conflict will increase as the full impact of climate change materializes over the next century. Political instability could also result in international and national travel restrictions that would hinder tourism and migration. The results of the Arab Spring and its subsequent unrest are a testament to the effects of conflict on the tourism industry: in 2011, Egypt and Tunisia received only two-thirds of the tourists who had visited the prior year. The shortfall left an estimated 100,000 people without work in Tunisia (box 6.4) (Meriemdhaouadi 2011; Salam 2012). However, minor local conflicts have less effect on tourism, since tourists seek alternative desti- nations in the same nation or region. Medical tourism appears to be very sensitive to levels of conflict. The health impacts of climate change can affect tourism greatly (see chapter 8 on general health impacts). Tourists prefer destinations with minimum health risks and avoid areas with longer epidemic seasons or elevated levels of tropical and infectious diseases. With an aging tourism population, health impacts may become increasingly important. Epidem- ics and risks of epidemics have significantly affected tourists’ travel pat- terns in the past. In 2003, the presence of SARS reduced tourism in Thai- land by 1.5 million arrivals and resulted in lost revenue of US$3.5 billion (Medical Review.com 2009).14 The Tourism Industry Depends on Climate Adaptation The Arab region is already experiencing climate change impacts and im- mediate action is necessary, particularly given the long execution periods for investments in buildings and infrastructure for the tourism industry (Simpson et al. 2008). Many adaptations will be part of the general strat- egy needed for the wider economy: water conservation and protection of water resources are adaptation strategies that benefit the tourism industry, 258 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 6.4 Arab Spring: The 2011 Tourism Effect Popular uprisings and the Arab Spring reduced tourism across the region. The loss of tourists was a reaction to evacuations in Egypt and Tunisia, civil war in Libya, and Syrian protests with violent government reactions (Smale 2011). Both Egypt and Tunisia lost one-third of tourists relative to 2010 (Salam 2012; TNA 2011; UNWTO 2011c). Egypt had 60 percent fewer tourists in March 2011 compared with 1.3 million in March 2010, and losses in the tourist sector amounted to US$2.2 billion in May 2011 (Mid- dle East Online 2011). In contrast, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates experienced steady growth in 2011 as tourists avoided Egypt and Tunisia (UNWTO 2012). Neverthe- less, the tourism industry is confident that tourists will return in 2012 with a new government in Libya and democratic elections in Egypt and Tunisia (Smale 2011). while protecting nature and increasing food security (boxes 6.5 and 6.6; see also chapters 3 and 4). These efforts would reduce stressors on natural ecosystems and increase their chances of acclimatizing and surviving the impacts of climate change (box 6.2). Other adaptation measures are specific to the tourism industry: the large investments in fixed immobile capital assets, such as hotels or re- sorts, make adaptation more difficult and expensive. Table 6.3 provides an overview of the adaptation strategies for different stakeholders in the tourism industry. Adaptation requires policies and operations and the involvement of all stakeholders. The tourism industry has already had to adapt to climate variation across the world; the hot and arid climate of the Arab region provides added challenges. Table 6.4 presents a summary of the general adaptation strategies required for each climate change impact. Of special importance is the development of stable and predictable government policies and institutional frameworks. Since tourism interacts with many other economic sectors, it will be important to develop integrated policies between government agencies, the private sector, industry and nongov- ernmental organizations. Success is contingent on the capacity to coordi- Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience 259 BOX 6.5 Investing in Biodiversity: The Jordanian Dana Biosphere Reserve The Jordanian Dana Biosphere Reserve uses ecotourism to diver- sify income and to build the resilience of local ecosystems. The Royal Society for the Conservation of Nature in Jordan works directly with local villages and Bedouin communities to develop tourist ventures. Since 1994, they have combined sustainable development, tourism, and wildlife services in the Jordanian Dana Biosphere Reserve. The reserve provides alternative livelihoods for local people, lessening their dependence on goat grazing and hunting. The Royal Society revived traditional gardens and cre- ated new sources of income based on high-value products from handicraft enterprises. In addition, the Dana Biosphere Reserve protects wildlife and scenic areas, while enriching nature by breed- ing and protecting animals facing extinction (the sand cat and Syr- ian wolf). The reserve won four international awards for sustain- able development and provides significant economic benefits. It has 30,000 visitors a year (refer to spotlight 2 on biodiversity and ecosystem services for more information on biosphere reserves). Sources: Djernaes, forthcoming; Harms 2010; Namrouqa 2009; RSCN 2011. BOX 6.6 Unsustainable Water Use in the Tourism Industry The tourism industry’s average water use varies between 100 and 2,000 liters per guest per night. Larger and luxurious accommoda- tions tend to consume considerably more. In comparison, basic household water requirements are estimated at 50 liters per person per day, excluding water for gardens. Indirect consumption for golf courses, irrigated gardens, and swimming pools is the main driver for the high water use in tourism. An 18-hole golf course may require more than 2.3 million liters of water a day. Source: UNESCO 2006. 260 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE 6.3 Adaptation Strategies for Stakeholders in the Tourism Industry Tourism operators/ Tourism Governments Financial sector (investors/ Target businesses industry associations and communities insurance providers) Technical • Collect rainwater • Enable access to early- • Build water reservoirs • Require advanced building • Develop systems for water warning equipment (such • Develop warning systems design or material standards recovery and recycling as radios) to tourism for weather forecasting for insurance • Develop buildings and operators and early detection • Provide informational structures to better handle • Develop websites with • Build desalination plants material to customers extreme weather events practical information on • Rationalize water • Require adherence to • Use low-impact building adaptation measures consumption regulations structures (green buildings • Develop land-use zoning and traditional experience) to consider climate risks • Implement new • Enforce regulations technologies Managerial • Develop water • Use short-term seasonal • Develop disaster • Develop insurance that conservation plans forecasts for planning management and addresses the Arab market • Close facilities in low marketing activities evacuation plans and adjust insurance season • Develop training programs • Develop impact premiums to reflect risks • Diversify products and on climate change management plans (such • Restrict lending to high-risk markets adaptation as the Coral Bleaching business operations • Diversify regional business • Encourage environmental Response Plan) operations management with firms • Implement convention/ • Redirect clients away from (for example, through event interruption affected destinations certification) insurance • Integrate environmental • Develop disaster risk • Develop risk-reduction management of management strategies operations to reduce • Restrict business licenses impacts to businesses in high-risk locations • Require specific adaptation measures Policy • Develop extreme weather • Coordinate political • Develop coastal • Consider climate change in interruption guarantees lobbying and mainstream management plans with credit risk and project • Stay in compliance with adaptation efforts setback requirements finance assessments regulation (for example, • Seek funding to • Set building design building codes) implement adaptation standards (for example, projects extreme weather) Research • Assess weather impact of • Assess awareness of • Monitor environmental • Understand extreme site location businesses and tourists as risks (for example, predict weather event risk exposure • Reduce disaster risk well as knowledge gaps bleaching risk, beach water • Understand measures to quality, dust storms) minimize exposures • Reduce disaster risk Education • Educate employees and • Develop public education • Institute water • Educate and inform tourists in water campaigns (such as keep conservation campaigns potential and existing conservation the water clean, benefits of • Introduce campaigns on customers • Increase environmental protecting Marine the dangers of UV impact awareness Protected Areas) radiation Behavioral • Develop real-time • Develop water • Develop plans for extreme • Develop good in-house information on weather conservation initiatives event recovery (including practices conditions and forecasts marketing to regain tourists in the event of disaster) Source: Adapted from Simpson et al. 2008. Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience 261 TABLE 6.4 Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change Impacts on Tourism in General Sea salination, Temperature increase Increased aridity Extreme events Sea-level rise acidification • Implement environ- • Require less watering • Improve weather forecasts • Secure or relocate • Reduce future emissions mental conservation of surrounding areas, and warnings, including most exposed and limit the long-term and preservation limiting or eliminating local warnings on weather infrastructure effects • Provide tourists easy grassy golf courses with specific health infor- • Develop coastal rein- access to information • Increase rainwater mation (such as ozone forcements where related to heat collection levels, dust levels, necessary, preferably exposure and risk temperature, storms) using natural systems • Increase recycling and reduction recovery of water • Disseminate information and with minimal • Implement strict vacci- on adaptation measures impact on biodiversity • Develop water reser- nation requirements in for extreme weather • Implement and voirs and alternative advance of travel; may water supply • Use building design and uphold zoning reduce some of the structure to manage restrictions consid- • Develop public impact of increased extreme weather ering disaster risks policies on water range and seasons for exposure usage diseases • Develop land-use zoning • Increase incorporation • Incorporate traditional to avoid exposed areas of traditional building building methods and • Develop risk-reduction methods and architecture, and new strategies architecture, and new technologies to technologies to • Develop disaster risk increase sustainability increase sustainability management and of facilities of facilities evacuation plans • Use sustainable energy • Develop impact for cooling management and contingency plans Source: Djernaes, forthcoming. nate and promote public-private partnerships, disseminate and incentiv- ize best practices, and uphold regulations with transparency (Abaza, Saab, and Zeitoon 2011). For adaptation of traditional tourist segments, it is important to mini- mize the growth in direct costs associated with climate change through implementation of adaptation measures (see also tables 6.4 and 6.5): • Water management (box 6.6) • Protection of natural environments and cultural heritage • Zoning of land use for minimal exposure • Disaster risk management and evacuation plans • Reinforcement of new and existing buildings to withstand stronger extreme weather • Coastal erosion control and protection 262 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE 6.5 Adaptation Strategies for Tourism Segments Increased Sea salination, Segment temperatures Increased aridity Extreme events Sea-level rise acidification Arab • Plan events and • Plan events and • Protect sites from • Reinforce exposed vacationers activities to minimize activities to minimize weather impact, if areas exposure exposure necessary • Secure coastal areas • Relocate facilities, if with natural eco- necessary Use short- systems to increase term and seasonal biodiversity forecasts to plan • Reduce ecosystem activities stressors to maximize ability to handle climate change stress • Develop alternative tourist destinations away from exposed areas Nationals • Implement govern- • Encourage collection • Ensure that commu- • Implement and residing ment policies and of rainwater and water nities understand how enforce restrictions to abroad programs to incentive recycling to minimize exposure ensure that the most solar energy for • Ensure sufficient water • Enforce strict building exposed areas are not cooling for basic needs codes to minimize used for settlements damage and risks Religion • Build additional • Build additional • Enhance warning facilities for shade for facilities to ensure systems and improve pilgrims water availability disaster management • Build cooled facilities plans with energy require- ments met through solar energy Cultural • Provide cooler facilities • Build additional facil- • Use short-term and • Secure cultural heritage at cultural heritage ities to ensure water seasonal forecasts to heritage sites that sites supplied by availability at all plan activities bring the most tourists renewable energy cultural heritage sites • Protect sites from • Secure sites with long- • Attract tourists in weather impacts, if term potential to colder months necessary attract tourists Nature • Plan events and • Plan events and • Implement incentives • Secure coastal areas • Monitor and activities to minimize activities to minimize for existing facility with natural eco- manage exposure exposure owners to reduce their systems to increase water sys- exposure to extreme biodiversity tems (predict events • Reduce stressors on bleaching • Use short-term and ecosystems to maxi- risk, water seasonal forecasts to mize the ability to quality) plan activities handle stress asso- • Relocate facilities, if ciated with climate necessary change • Develop alternative tourist destinations Medical • Disseminate heat • Ensure sufficient water • Ensure that popu- reasons exposure information for basic needs lations understand • Enhance prevention how to minimize programs exposure • Secure energy avail- • Enforce strict building ability through local codes for health renewable energy facilities to minimize damage and risks Source: Djernaes, forthcoming. Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience 263 Risk Reduction Is Necessary for Adequate Adaptation Large investors in the tourism industry often have facilities in multiple locations. Diversifying income sources reduces the economic risk of a single climate disaster. In contrast, the local population is very dependent on specific tourist locations and has few or no opportunities for develop- ing risk-reduction strategies. Any disaster will be felt more profoundly by these communities, with long-term effects on their livelihoods. National strategies for disaster risk reduction are essential for the social protection of local populations and businesses (see spotlight 1 on disaster risk management). Shifting to Segments with Higher Returns Will Boost Income and Diversify Livelihoods Certain sectors of the tourism industry are more productive: visits by nationals residing abroad provide low returns, whereas medical tourism and conference tourism produce some of the highest. In general, employ- ment and economic returns increase with service level, luxury, and tour- ists’ purchasing power. Expanding into these segments can make tourism in the Arab region more productive and more resilient to the effects of climate change. Medical tourism is a growing segment of the global economy. An ex- pansion into this market relies heavily on capacity building through large capital investments and high levels of education. Such investments could produce substantial secondary effects on the economy as a whole. An expansion of medical facilities for tourism could also contribute to im- proved overall livelihoods and medical services for the local population. Business travel and conference participation yield a 10-to-1 return on investment for businesses and present a promising sector for expansion of tourism to Arab countries (see WTTC 2011a).15 Conference participants are usually influential members of the business world, and positive experi- ences can generate large benefits in additional business tourists. This seg- ment is developed in Oman and Qatar, but it can expand in other Arab countries. Because business travelers are not primarily seeking recreation, this segment can use existing facilities in nonpeak seasons (for example, the Maghreb in the winter). The Maghreb countries are well positioned for expansion and diversi- fication in tourism: Algeria and Morocco have very attractive climates and underused tourist attractions. If these countries grew the tourist sector by only 1 percent of GDP, they would create 36,700–47,200 jobs based on their current tourism model. Expanding the tourism industry would in- crease its economic value by 11 percent in Algeria and 5 percent in Mo- 264 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries rocco. Another growth opportunity is to develop the tourism model and expand tourist segments with higher returns. For Morocco, the segments to focus on are cultural heritage, nature, and conference. Such an expan- sion could produce returns resembling those of Tunisia. Morocco can combine these two opportunities: first, by expanding the size of the indus- try by 5 percent and second, by developing the tourism model. The com- bined GDP effect would be an estimated US$2 billion or 2 percent growth in GDP (table 6.6). In Algeria, the combined GDP effect would be US$1.5 billion (Djernaes, forthcoming). Tunisia’s strong health care industry has the potential to expand into medical tourism; particularly given Tunisia’s successful track record of attracting European tourists for summer vacations. In 2000, the World Trade Organization ranked Tunisia’s health system 52nd in the world, ahead of Egypt, India, and Jordan and just behind Thailand (Ahmed and Sanchez-Triana 2008; WHO 2000). Tunisia could also increase returns by expanding its market to cover more business and conference tourism. Among the Mashreq countries, Egypt could focus on health care and conferences to bring higher returns. Both Jordan and Lebanon have op- portunities to expand medical tourism by attracting not only Arab pa- tients but also patients from European and American markets. However, medical tourism is particularly sensitive to political unrest, and the socio- political stability of these countries will be a critical factor in further ex- pansion. The perception of instability in Lebanon, for example, appears to have been a major constraint in its ability to tap into the broader inter- national medical tourism market (Connell 2010; Luca 2010). Least developed countries can in general receive large benefits by de- veloping the tourism sector; however, large up-front capital investments are necessary, and attracting the necessary international investors will be a challenge. Diversification of Tourist Sectors Provides Opportunities for Geographic Expansion Tourism has traditionally been confined to limited areas in Arab coun- tries; Tunisia, for example, originally sought to attract the economic ben- efits of tourism but limited tourist exposures to specific tourist locations (Berriane 1999). The democratization process may provide the opportu- nity to expand cultural heritage tourism into new regions and away from climate-vulnerable coastal resources. Cultural heritage tourism can fur- ther exploit the many impressive ruins left by ancient cultures in the land- scape surrounding the Mediterranean. These ruins have great potential as alternative tourist attractions (see boxes 6.1 and 6.7). Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience 265 TABLE 6.6 Annual GDP Contribution by Tourist Sector per Employee GDP contribution per Additional employment if tourism employee in the tourist sectora sector grew GDP by 1% (US$ thousands) (thousands of people employed) Maghreb Algeria 38.1 36.7 Libya 65.2 9.0 Morocco 19.3 47.2 Tunisia 41.0 10.6 Mashreq Egypt, Arab Rep. 24.7 76.5 Iraqb n.a. 25.6 Jordan 44.6 5.3 Lebanon 82.2 4.2 Syrian Arab Rep. 28.2 19.1 LDCs Comorosb n.a. 0.2 Djiboutib n.a. 0.4 Mauritaniab n.a. 1.2 Sudanb n.a. 21.0 Somaliab n.a. n.a. Yemen, Rep. 17.4 14.4 Gulf Bahrain 117.2 1.6 Kuwait 66.4 16.5 Oman 108.6 4.3 Qatar 503.8 1.9 Saudi Arabia 100.7 37.5 United Arab Emirates 332.2 8.1 Sources: IMF 2011; WTTC 2011b. Note: LDCs = least developed countries; n.a. = not applicable. a. GDP per employee is based on data for the period 1988–2009 by country. b. National historic data are unavailable. Calculations of additional employment are based on an average for countries with GDP per employee of less than US$70,000. The geographic expansion of tourism provides opportunities to in- volve different communities and to increase the diversity of their liveli- hoods. In addition, it will create a tourism industry that is less reliant on only a few natural resources, such as coral reefs, and that will reduce over- all industry risks through diversification. These alternative tourist options are unlikely to fully replace lost revenues in the traditional segments. To ensure long-term sustainability, the carrying capacity of the environment must be considered. Some rural areas in the Arab region have a rich cul- tural tradition that could offer fascinating experiences for tourists; the Bedouin lead vacationers on tours of the desert, offering a unique per- spective on sustainable life in a forbidding environment (box 6.7). 266 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 6.7 Cultural and Natural Preservation through Sustainable Tourism: Diversifying Local Livelihoods Alternative tourism has been successfully mental heritage while developing the local implemented on a small scale. These proj- community. Covered by oak trees, the east- ects develop sustainable tourism that pre- ern slopes overlook the beautiful scenery serves culture and social networks, while of the Bekaa Valley. At the western slopes’ promoting cultural heritage and natural peak, the cedar forest provides a spectacular preservation. attraction. The cedar forest is in the pro- cess of renewal since the implementation Tourism in the Sahara is fairly new and of forest conservation and anti-overgrazing has potential as an alternative tourist activ- measures. Wolves, hyenas, mountain deer, ity. Saharan tourism is often combined with and ibex reside in the reserve. Local people Tunisian coastal tourism or cultural tour- work as tourist guides and in the production ism in Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. By and sale of traditional products to visitors involving the Saharan population, tourism (LAS and UNEP 2007). can stimulate development, alleviate pov- erty, and serve as an income-diversifying The Siwa Oasis project in Egypt is an strategy for nomadic peoples, such as the example of inland sustainable tourism Tuareg in Algeria. The exploration of frag- founded on local customs and practices. ile natural resources requires a strategy for The project provides more than 200 per- sustainability to preserve the natural herit- manent jobs and 400 auxiliary functions for age (UNESCO 2003). involvement in the project’s design, imple- mentation, management, and traditional The Al-Shouf Cedar Nature Reserve in handicraft industries. Local capacities and Lebanon extends from Dahr Al-Baidar in resources were developed while support- the north to Niha Mountain near Jezzine ing the local social environment. Houses in the south. The reserve is an example of and tourist resorts were built by using sustainable tourism aimed at preserving the 2,500-year-old architectural methods (LAS natural, historical, biological, and environ- and UNEP 2007). The United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organiza- tion supports tourism that integrates biodiversity conservation with so- cioeconomic values through its certification of biosphere reserves. The concept provides tourists with experiences that combine educational, cul- tural, and natural values. The program promotes science, participatory research, education, and environmental monitoring. Tourists are exposed to rural and urban landscapes with opportunities to observe wildlife, in- teract with traditional communities, and learn about sustainable living. Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience 267 These programs attract academics, researchers, students, schools, and private sector establishments, in addition to more traditional tourists (UNESCO 2008). The Jordanian Dana Biosphere Reserve is one suc- cessful example from the Arab region (box 6.5). It provides a model that can be expanded. Private and Public Sector Interventions Are Needed for Sustainable Tourism Tourism is important for economic growth, foreign exchange earnings, and employment: • Tourism contributes 3 percent of GDP in the Arab region, and 93 percent is concentrated in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates. • Tourism contributes between 15 and 32 percent of total employment in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia. • Tourism is important for foreign exchange earnings; tourism constitutes 24 percent of total exports of goods and services in the Mashreq and Morocco. • Tourism is an opportunity to diversify livelihoods and related risks by pro- viding a source of income that is independent of oil and agriculture. Tourism is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, but more impor- tant, the tourism industry provides a good opportunity for the Arab re- gion to diversify livelihoods and reduce risk exposure, especially when facing climate change. • The largest and most immediate threat to tourism is among tourists seeking nature, culture, and recreation. • Current tourism facilities and important heritage sites may be lost because of impacts from extreme weather and in the longer term because of higher sea levels. • Religious and medical tourists are the least affected by climate change. Reli- gious tourists are less driven by comfort, and medical tourists are more dependent on indoor climate. Adaptation • Adaptation requires actions with regard to policies and operations with in- volvement of all stakeholders. The tourism industry has already had to 268 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries adapt to climate variations across the world. Nevertheless, climate change adaptation in the Arab region provides added challenges since its climate is already hot and arid. • Tourism’s ability to provide income and employment for the growing popula- tion is important, and continued sustainable investment in tourism should still be pursued. • Adaptation in the tourism industry will require minimizing the growth in direct costs associated with climate change through implementation of sev- eral general measures: (a) water management, (b) protection of natural environments and cultural heritage, (c) land-use zoning for minimal exposure, (d) disaster risk management and evacuation plans, (e) in- creased efforts to reinforce new and existing buildings to withstand stronger extreme weather impacts, (f) coastal erosion control and pro- tection where necessary, and (g) public health management. • Opportunities exist to expand the industry into new areas (medical, confer- ences, and inland). Diversification of the tourism industry provides opportunities to involve different populations and to increase the di- versity of their livelihoods. In addition, it will create an industry that is less reliant on fragile natural resources, such as coral reefs. Legislation and Governance • Appropriate governance for coordination and cooperation should be developed across tourist-related sectors for all relevant stakeholders. • Governments should foster the design of capacity-building programs for the tourism sector, focusing on training and creating opportunities to adapt to the effects of climate change in tourism. • Legislation and policies need to be developed that seek and create opportunities to increase sustainable business practices that incorporate climate change adaptation practices and activities. National Industry Knowledge Development • Detailed data should be collected to calculate the economic contribution of different tourist segments. • Data should be generated on the number of tourists attracted to the coun- tries for the different segments of the industry. • Data should be collected on employment and the contribution to the total employment by segment. Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience 269 Climate Knowledge Development • An information database should be developed, and access improved, incorpo- rating the analysis and data on climate change modeling and monitoring. • Research should be conducted on the climate change impacts on the sector. • Education and campaigns to raise awareness should be carried out for all stakeholders in the industry. Notes 1. Direct spending includes revenue generated by industries dealing directly with tourists, including visitor exports; domestic spending; and government indi- vidual spending. Total spending includes capital investment spending by all sectors directly involved in the travel and tourism industry, including invest- ment spending by other industries on specific tourism assets (visitor accom- modation, transport equipment, restaurants, and facilities for tourism use). 2. Data are based on UNWTO’s statistics of the nationality of arriving non- resident visitors at national borders, except in Oman, Qatar, and the West Bank and Gaza, where records are made at hotels. UNWTO has no data for Djibouti, Mauritania, and Somalia, and no detailed information on tourist origination for the United Arab Emirates. These nations were excluded from the origination analysis. 3. Direct employment includes traditional tourist sector services, such as lodging and transportation. Indirect employment includes tourism-related investment, public spending, and export of goods by tourists. 4. Based on preliminary findings from analyses of employment and total GDP contribution for the period 1988–2009. 5. The League of Arab States, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, and the Regional Bureau for Arab States brought the relevant Arab governments, civil society organizations, and businesses to- gether in 2010, and the Arab Strategy for disaster risk reduction was adopted by the Council of Arab Ministers Responsible for the Environment in De- cember 2010 and by the Arab Economic and Social Council in September 2011. Currently, work focuses on developing a regional program of imple- mentation: the program’s effectiveness has yet to be established (LAS 2011; UNISDR 2011). 6. According to World Trade Organization statistics for the region, only 63 percent of the international tourists indicate a reason for travel. 7. This segment includes Arabs residing outside their country of citizenship who return home for temporary visits. Nationals with changed citizenship are counted as nationals of their acquired homeland; therefore, this group may be underestimated. Also, not all countries report this group of tourists. Historically, Lebanon receives large numbers of tourists who are nationals with changed citizenships. 270 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries 8. The remainder return to Algeria, Syria, and Jordan (19 percent, 16 percent, and 11 percent, respectively). 9. Of the arrivals to Saudi Arabia, 88 percent originate from nations with Mus- lim majority populations (based on data from the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life 2011 and UNWTO 2011d). 10. The Tunisian government supported the development of beach tourism in the early 1960s. The segment experienced substantial growth from 4,000 beds in 1960 to 164,612 beds in 2009 (Berriane 1999). 11. The most recent details available from Bahrain with regard to origination of tourists are for 2007. 12. Wellness tourism consists predominantly of healthy individuals seeking spa vacations for preventative health care and wellness. Discretionary procedures are elective medical procedures that are not required for health reasons. 13. In 2006, the global medical tourism market was approximately US$60 billion and is estimated to grow to US$100 billion in 2012. The largest number of inpatient medical travelers (40 percent) needs advanced technologies that are typically found in the United States. Better care than is available at home drives 32 percent of the market, often from outside the most developed world. Long local wait times on medically necessary procedures drive 15 per- cent of the market for orthopedics, general surgery, and cardiology. Nine percent of medical travelers are in search of lower costs; and only 4 percent are seeking discretionary procedures, with the United States being the largest consumer (Ehrbech, Guevara, and Mango 2008; Herrick 2007; Pigato 2009). 14. 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Harms, Erika. 2010. “Sustainable Tourism: From Nice to Have to Need to Have.” In Trends and Issues in Global Tourism 2010, ed. Roland Conrady and Martin Buck, 111–17. Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer Verlag. Herrick, Devon M. 2007. “Medical Tourism: Global Competition in Health Care.” Policy Report 304, National Center for Policy Analysis, Dallas. http:// www.medretreat.com/templates/UserFiles/Documents/Medical%20 Tourism%20-%20NCPA%20Report.pdf. IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2011. World Economic Outlook Data- base. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/weodata/index.aspx. Kamoonpuri, Hasan. 2010. “Royal Orders to Plant Date Palm and Coconut Trees a Boon for Country.” Oman Daily Observer, October 22. http://oman observer.om/node/27273. LAS (League of Arab States). 2011. “The Arab Strategy for Disaster Risk Re- duction 2020.” UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva. http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/18903. 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Waleed, Hazbun. 1997. “The Development of Tourism Industries in the Arab World: Trapped between the Forces of Economic Globalization and Cultural Tourism Can Promote Economic Growth and Climate Resilience 275 Commodification.” Paper presented at the 30th Annual Convention of the Association of Arab-American University Graduates on the Theme of Arabs, Arab Americans, and the Global Community, Washington, DC, November 1. WHO (World Health Organization). 2000. “The World Health Report 2000: Health Systems—Improving Performance.” Press release, WHO, Geneva. http://www.who.int/whr/2000/en/. World Bank. 2008. “Tunisia’s Global Integration: Second Generation of Re- forms to Boost Growth and Employment .” Report 40129-TN, World Bank, Washington, DC. ———. 2011. World dataBank website. http://databank.worldbank.org. WTTC (World Travel and Tourism Council). 2011a. “Executive Summary.” Business Travel: A Catalyst for Economic Performance. London: WTTC. http:// www.wttc.org/site_media/uploads/downloads/WTTC_Business_Travel_ 2011-_Executive_Summary.pdf. ———. 2011b. “Data Search Tool: Economic Impact Research.” http://www. wttc.org/research/. CHAPTER 7 Gender-Responsive Climate Change Adaptation: Ensuring Effectiveness and Sustainability The purpose of this chapter is to develop a better understanding of gender-based vulnerabilities and opportunities in climate change adapta- tion in Arab countries and to propose policy options to address them. The chapter argues that (a) climate change impacts in this region are not gen- der neutral, (b) specific gender inequalities intensify vulnerability to cli- mate change by increasing sensitivity and reducing adaptive capacity, and (c) to strengthen resilience to climate change, it is essential to build a holistic and gender-responsive approach to adaptation that empowers women as agents of change. This chapter concentrates on rural popula- tions because, generally, they are the most vulnerable to climate change and because the gender-related aspects of climate change are arguably more pronounced. Rural livelihoods are more exposed to climate events, and lower human development, higher poverty rates, and limited access to resources contribute to greater sensitivity and gender disparity. Thus, all references to women and men are to rural populations unless other- wise identified. This chapter first provides background on vulnerability, the three main arguments listed above, and the global and regional policy back- ground for gender and climate change. The next section develops a pro- file of gender-based vulnerability to climate change in Arab countries. The third section provides examples of how adaptation can be approached from a gender perspective, with four case studies from the Republic of Yemen, Morocco, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Jordan. Finally, the chapter concludes with policy options. Photograph by Dorte Verner 277 278 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Background Understanding Vulnerability Climate vulnerability is defined as “a function of the sensitivity of a sys- tem to changes in climate, adaptive capacity, and the degree of exposure of the system to climatic hazards” (McCarthy et al. 2001; also see chapter 1 of this volume). Climate change exacerbates the existing vulnerabilities of individuals and households who have limited or insecure access to physical, natural, financial, human, social, political, and cultural assets (Flora and Flora 2008). These assets determine how well people can cope and adapt. Availability of, and access to, assets is socially differentiated, because it is shaped by formal and informal inequalities in many aspects of life, including by gender (Otzelberger 2011; UNFPA and WEDO 2009). Therefore, gender-based vulnerability can be defined as vulnera- bility caused by inequalities in men’s and women’s access to the assets, opportunities, and decision-making power that would enable them to adapt successfully to new climate conditions. Climate Change Impacts Are Not Gender Neutral Gender is an important variable in the relationship between climate change and its human impacts. Specifically, gender-based inequalities, which persist in different areas of life across Arab countries, result in men, women, boys, and girls facing different vulnerabilities—and potential op- portunities—in the face of climate change impacts. However, gender roles and relations are highly context specific and therefore differ among and within the Arab countries. They are also flexible and likely will un- dergo significant evolution as climate change continues to affect the en- vironment and society (Espey 2011; Resurreccion 2011). These charac- teristics mean that the gender-differentiated impacts of climate change, and the roles that men and women play in the process of adaptation, must be studied and addressed in local contexts. Despite regional diversity, one can identify some broad trends in patterns of gender roles and relations, which determine poverty and vulnerability among men and women and shape the gender-differentiated impacts of climate change in Arab countries. The sociocultural gender dynamics and power asymmetries that un- derpin these patterns tend to make women particularly susceptible to chronic poverty (Espey 2011) and lower adaptive capacity. In particular, Gender-Responsive Climate Change Adaptation: Ensuring Effectiveness and Sustainability 279 the prevailing sociocultural constructions of masculinity and the resulting economic and legal frameworks that privilege men’s roles as providers mean that female heads of household and their dependents—whose num- bers are increasing—are one of the region’s most vulnerable groups (IFAD and FAO 2007).1 Still, it is important to note that gender inequali- ties and differences in traditional roles not only affect women, but also can result in men facing specific vulnerabilities (Demetriades and Esplen 2008; Otzelberger 2011; UNFPA and WEDO 2009). Specific Gender Inequalities Intensify Vulnerability to Climate Change The drivers of gender-based vulnerability to climate change can be sepa- rated into three general areas of inequality: access to resources, opportu- nity for improving existing livelihoods and developing alternative liveli- hoods, and participation in decision making. In the rural areas of Arab countries, structural inequalities and sociocultural norms most often dis- advantage women, and especially poor women, in these three areas, thus intensifying their exposure and sensitivity to climatic changes. As a result, rural women are more likely to have lower adaptive capacity than men. Their lower adaptive capacity results in exacerbated well-being, impacts on individuals, households, and communities. Holistic and Gender-Responsive Adaptation Builds Resilience In looking at gender and climate change adaptation, one must recognize that building resilience requires two types of adaptation actions: first, ac- tions intended to adjust and protect livelihood systems from specific cli- mate change impacts, and second, actions that focus on reducing the un- derlying drivers of gender-based vulnerabilities to climate change. The first response deals directly with the immediate impacts from a given climate change event; the second is in line with broader sustainable devel- opment practices (with a particular focus on factors that drive gender- based vulnerability to climate change, such as unequal access, opportu- nity, and participation). A commitment to addressing the underlying causes of gender-based vulnerability to climate change—the economic, political, and sociocultural mechanisms that maintain gender-based in- equalities—is a prerequisite for building resilience. The two approaches to climate change adaptation are mutually inclusive and beneficial. 280 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Global and Regional Policies Increasingly Recognize Gender as a Factor in Adaptation to Climate Change A growing number of global and regional polices comprehensively ad- dress gender in climate change. These have evolved from simplistic poli- cies that emphasize only women’s participation and women’s roles to- ward more holistic approaches with a greater focus on gender equity. Significant progress has been achieved in integrating climate change into United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN- FCCC) processes. In 2007, the United Nations (UN) and 25 interna- tional organizations formed the Global Gender and Climate Alliance (GGCA), which aims to ensure that global climate policies are gender responsive. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change now rec- ognizes gender as one factor that shapes vulnerability to climate change. In 2010, the Cancun Agreements recognized gender equality as integral to adaptation. At the 2011 Conference of Parties (COP-17) in Durban, South Africa, references to gender and women were strengthened in a number of important areas, for instance, in countries’ guidelines for pro- grams under the UN National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), in the Nairobi Work Programme,2 and in the operationalization of the Cancun Agreements, including the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation Committee, the Standing Committee on Finance, and the Technology Mechanism (WEDO 2011a, 2011b). Overall, however, advocates argue that gender concerns are not yet sufficiently addressed under the UNFCCC (Otzelberger 2011; WEDO 2010a). Gender has begun to appear on the adaptation agenda in Arab coun- tries as well. Gender-based vulnerabilities and the role of women in ad- aptation are acknowledged in the Arab Framework Action Plan.3 At the national level, countries such as Bahrain, the Arab Republic of Egypt, and Jordan have made efforts to mainstream gender into adaptation policy, and several Arab countries have referenced gender in national communi- cations to the UNFCCC. However, more could be done to mainstream gender into climate- related policies in Arab countries. For example, not all NAPAs specifically incorporate a gender perspective on adaptation (Elasha 2010). This ab- sence is partially due to insufficient collaboration between the institutions concerned and, in many countries, the fact that women’s commissions are barely engaged in the activities of ministries of environment or agricul- ture, and vice versa. The GGCA, the International Union for Conserva- tion of Nature (IUCN), and the Council of Arab Ministers Responsible for the Environment are working to promote instruments for mainstream- ing gender into climate action, and encouraging the integration of a na- tional gender perspective into UNFCCC negotiations and COPs. Gender-Responsive Climate Change Adaptation: Ensuring Effectiveness and Sustainability 281 Gender Roles and Relations Help Shape Responses to Climate Change in Arab Countries This section looks at the current gender context in Arab countries, and outlines how specific gender roles and inequalities relate to adaptation to changing climatic conditions. Increasingly, the process of adapting to a changing climate will constitute an opportunity for the negotiation of gender roles and relations. Gender Roles in Rural Livelihoods Create Challenges for Women and Men Women and men generally have different roles in rural societies in Arab countries. In some countries, women are often responsible for tending the land and livestock during the day and attending to household chores in the evening. Men typically handle the finances, trade in the market, and, if needed, migrate. Because natural resources are directly affected by the climate, women’s roles in rural areas are often the most sensitive to cli- mate change. Changes in rural livelihoods across Arab countries represent major challenges, but they also offer potential opportunities for flexibility and long-term change in the economic, political, and sociocultural mech- anisms that maintain gender inequalities. Gender roles can be less rigid than they might appear (Obeid 2006; Resurreccion 2011), and climate change may present an opportunity for them to evolve in rural areas. Rural women play a key role in managing natural resources and sustaining livelihoods Across Arab countries, the division of labor in poor rural households is such that women undertake a large portion of the labor required to sus- tain natural resources and rural livelihood systems. Women’s roles in ag- riculture are particularly significant, although their involvement in the sector varies between countries (figure 7.1). They typically work long hours, engaged mainly in nonmechanized, labor-intensive, non-capital- intensive activities (FAO 2005). Women also have primary responsibility for the husbandry of small animals and ruminants, as well as for taking care of large-animal systems, herding, providing feed and water, main- taining stalls, and milking (Elasha 2010; FAO 2005). The agricultural work traditionally performed by women in Arab coun- tries has long been “invisible,” as a crucial but seldom acknowledged con- tribution to household and national income (FAO 2005). Women work on their own farms and as laborers on other farms, but most of them are not paid for their efforts. About 75 percent of women working in agriculture in the Republic of Yemen are unpaid, as are 66 percent in Syria, 45 percent 282 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 7.1 Women and Men Engaged in Agriculture, 2004 80 70 % of workforce in agriculture 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Co uti So os lia Ma an en ia . n t, A cco Alg . st B Re a n ite di q Leb ya on it tar in d a za Em a tes k a lic ep p We Arab unisi eri rab abi Un Sa Ira rl a da wa Yem itan Re hra r an pub Ga Lib ma Om d an bo Wo Qa ira mo ,R yp ro Jor Su d A Ar Ku rab Eg Mo Ba Dji nd ur T u ian Syr Women Men Source: Authors’ representation, based on FAOSTAT. in the West Bank and Gaza (FAO 2005), and 70 percent in Egypt (Egyp- tian Organization for Development Rights 2011). But the female role in livelihood and natural resource systems is crucial; the work women per- form is central to ensuring food security for the family and community and maintaining adequate levels of productivity among the rural labor force (FAO 2005; FAO, IFAD, and ILO 2010; IFAD and FAO 2007). This traditional role of women as natural resource managers in rural communities in Arab countries makes them especially vulnerable to cli- mate change for two reasons. First, these systems are highly reliant on the climate for their productivity, which makes them highly exposed. Second, because women are often not paid for this work and have less access to and control of land, they have less capacity to adapt. For example, women are the largest group of direct water users, but they do not normally have an equal voice in managing the use or distribution of water. Women are the primary caregivers in rural families Women perform vital, but economically unrecognized and unremuner- ated, activities that contribute to the overall well-being of the household. These activities, which act as a social safety net in the absence of public service provisions, include functioning as caretakers and sometimes as contributors to household income. Caretaking activities are particularly Gender-Responsive Climate Change Adaptation: Ensuring Effectiveness and Sustainability 283 BOX 7.1 Women’s Roles in Buffering against Shocks “Women in most Arab countries play a key role in adapting households and buffering the family against unexpected climatic shocks. Their knowledge of ecosystems, their skills and abilities, social networks and community organizations help communities mitigate hazardous conditions and events, and respond effectively to disasters.” Source: Elasha 2010. demanding where birth rates are high, such as in Mauritania, Oman, the West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. This problem is fur- ther exacerbated when women suffer poor access to reproductive health services (FAO 2005). These roles make women highly vulnerable to climate change for two main reasons. First, when climate hazards occur, women play a vital role in maintaining the functioning of the home (see box 7.1). Second, the increased likelihood of illness as a result of climate change is a burden that will fall primarily on women, who are responsible for taking care of sick family members. Migration decisions are heavily influenced by gender roles4 Gender norms, roles, and inequalities play an important role in determin- ing who migrates, when, and where. Migration is not necessarily an equally viable option for all members of the household. For example, those with limited resources or who are responsible for care—often women—are less likely to migrate (Demetriades and Esplen 2008). In Arab countries, men are normally the first to migrate (Elasha 2010). Thus women often remain in the affected community with the burden of as- suming the former duties of male household members, in addition to their already heavy workload. At the same time, men face new sets of challenges. For example, when men migrate to the city they are often unskilled and stigmatized. Generally, both women and men face vulner- abilities from migration, as well as potential opportunities. In Syria, a recent, multi-year drought affected over a million people (Sowers, Vengosh, and Weinthal 2011; and chapters 1, 3, and 6 of this volume), and led to a massive migration from rural areas to the outskirts of nearby urban centers and to Damascus and Aleppo. Estimates for the number of people who have been forced to migrate, either permanently 284 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries or semipermanently, range from 40,000 to 60,000 families (Solh 2010; UN 2009). In June 2009 it was estimated that 36,000 households (ap- proximately 200,000–300,000 individuals) had migrated from the Al- Hassake governorate alone (ACSAD and UNISDR 2011; Solh 2010; UN 2009). In a region in which men are attributed primary responsibility as income earners, male family members in particular were expected to leave the community to find alternative sources of income (Elasha 2010). This type of migration has contributed to the increase in the number of female-headed households in many areas.5 Other contributing factors are the greater numbers of disabled males (caused by conflict), widow- hood, and higher divorce rates (FAO 2005; IFAD and FAO 2007; UNDP 2005). In Egypt and Morocco, female-headed households are estimated to be 17 percent of all households, though the true numbers are likely to be higher as a result of male out-migration (FAO 2005). Although male migration can lead to increased decision-making power for women, it can also contribute to vulnerability. Some female-headed households show improved well-being in some indicators, especially if the woman’s situation is out of choice (UNDP 2005). However, most households headed by women are poorer than the small proportion of households headed by unmarried men (UNDP 2005). Among women heads of household in Egypt, roughly 80.5 percent have no landholding, which leaves them without an independent source of income. Depen- dence on male relatives for access to land and other assets connected to land ownership makes female-headed households particularly vulnerable. Also, the illiteracy rate for rural female heads of household is 73 percent, roughly 10 percent higher than the rate for all rural women (IFAD and FAO 2007). Illiteracy leaves women with less capacity to improve and diversify their livelihoods. Despite Some Progress, Gender-Based Inequality Persists for Some Indicators Gender-based inequalities make women and men vulnerable to climate change in different ways. Gender-based vulnerabilities are shaped by the interactions of gender with other factors, because women and men are not able to draw equally on the resources needed for adaptation. The poorest socioeconomic groups are typically the most affected and the least able to adapt. In the rural areas of Arab countries, women make up a large proportion of these groups, which include small farmers and the unemployed (IFAD and FAO 2007). Countries in the Arab region have achieved great advancements on key gender indicators. Investments in girls and women’s education and health, Gender-Responsive Climate Change Adaptation: Ensuring Effectiveness and Sustainability 285 TABLE 7.1 Selected Gender Indicators for the Arab Region and Subregions, 2009 or Latest Available Data Literacy rate Labor force participation Maternal Ratio of Proportion of (% of population (% of population mortality rate female to male seats held by ages 15 and above) ages 15–64) (deaths per primary women in national Subregion 100,000 live births) Females Males enrollment (%) Females Males parliaments (%) Least developed countries 613.0 55.0 79.0 84.3 34.9 76.2 11.8 Gulf 19.7 84.3 90.5 100.4 29.0 84.2 5.9 Maghreb 104.1 58.7 78.4 94.3 32.4 81.9 13.3 Mashreq 73.0 66.1 73.0 93.8 57.5 86.3 14.4 All Arab countries 201.7 63.9 81.1 91.7 27.6 78.8 9.2 Low- and middle- income countries, globally 290.0 74.9 86.0 96.0 55.5 83.1 17.6 Source: Authors’ calculations based on Genderstat data. Note: Subregional data are calculated as an average of country data weighted by population except for parliamentary seats held by women, which is calculated as an arithmetic average. and some advances in women’s civil and political participation, have made major inroads in closing the gender gap in these fundamental human rights. These significant improvements in the status of women have re- sulted in observable progress on important social indicators. Women’s life expectancy has increased, and fertility rates and maternal mortality rates have decreased. Arab countries have made significant strides in fe- male literacy and education, largely catching up with other low- and middle-income countries (IFAD and FAO 2007; UN and LAS 2010; UNDP 2005) (see table 7.1). In the Arab Gulf states, more women than men graduate from universities. But challenges remain, and these improvements have not necessarily translated into gender equality in other domains. Women continue to suffer legal and sociocultural constraints to their agency both within and outside the household (World Bank 2012). Women continue to have less access to land, fewer economic or other livelihood opportunities, and lower civic and political participation rates. In fact, Arab countries have some of the lowest rates for women in the world on these indicators (see table 7.1). However, data on such indicators do not necessarily represent women’s economic or social and political roles accurately: much of wom- en’s work—especially in rural areas—is invisible in national statistics, and their roles in social and political development are often underestimated (box 7.2). 286 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 7.2 Data: A Fundamental Challenge Shortcomings in gender-disaggregated data livelihoods and human welfare. These roles related to the links between gender and are significantly undervalued in national adaptation in Arab countries is a funda- accounts across the region, which mostly mental challenge in two ways. First, the ignore informal markets and unpaid family availability of socioeconomic data is lim- labor and production. The indicators on ited across the region, especially for rural decision-making processes, used in current areas. Where data exist, they are typically quantitative methods, do not capture the only available for the most basic indicators. informal and indirect influence women may Second, innovative data collection methods have. Women’s vital roles in agriculture, that capture gender-relevant information as household managers, and as stewards of are not as commonly used as they could be. natural resources and ecosystems are not Some of the tools that would improve data accounted for in national data collection collection include qualitative methods such and statistical tools. This is because these as time-use surveys, focus groups, direct tools derive from models of human produc- observation, and informant interviews. tion that measure contributions in terms of Overcoming these shortcomings is cru- goods and services exchanged in the market cial for capturing a better picture of wom- and their cash values, which do not reveal en’s capabilities and their roles in sustaining the significance of unremunerated work. Sources: IFAD and FAO 2007; Jensen et al. 2011; Obeid 2006; UNDP 2005. Rural women’s access to resources is limited Many people lack secure access to property, land, and resources in rural areas in Arab countries. However, women’s access to productive assets, especially fertile agricultural land, is further limited by sociocultural prac- tices that reinforce male control and ownership of those resources, de- spite the role women often play in their management. Overall, women make up a small proportion of total landowners:6 24 percent in Egypt, 29 percent in Jordan, 14 percent in Morocco, and only 4 percent in Syria. When women do own land, they tend to own smaller plots (IFAD and FAO 2007). Few formal regulations prohibit women from owning land. Islamic law protects women as independent legal persons entitled to own land, prop- erty, and money in their own names, regardless of marital status. How- ever, this protection is sometimes weakened by a combination of the lack of awareness among rural women, in particular of processes of land acqui- sition and titling and of their rights, customary discrimination, and the persistence of the cultural idea that land is owned by men (Obeid 2006). Gender-Responsive Climate Change Adaptation: Ensuring Effectiveness and Sustainability 287 Women can lose their formal rights as a result of informal practices such as delaying or controlling women’s marriages, giving women cash com- pensation in place of land, or employing customary laws to ensure that land cannot be divided. These practices exclude women from land owner- ship to avoid the division of land or to keep land in the family (Obeid 2006). In some countries there is also a lack of land ownership records, and particularly sex-disaggregated data, which compounds the problem and constrains analysis (box 7.2). Lack of land ownership has serious implications for women’s adaptive capacity. These challenges include the following: • Difficulty in accessing credit—Land tenure and property rights are usu- ally required as collateral for loans, which seriously constrains rural women’s options for improving agricultural productivity and sustain- ing their livelihoods in the context of climate change. • Insecure access to water—Because land and water rights are closely re- lated, this lack of water rights also precludes women from membership in water user associations. • Limited membership in rural organizations—Membership is often re- stricted to heads of households and titled landowners, which can cut women off from decision-making processes, support systems, new technology or techniques, and training. Gender inequalities constrain rural women’s opportunities to improve and diversify their livelihoods Rural women often face gender-specific challenges to improving or di- versifying their livelihoods, thereby increasing their vulnerability to cli- mate change (FAO 2005; IFAD and FAO 2007; UNDP 2005). A limited labor market, restricted mobility, occupational segregation, a mismatch between skills acquired in school and labor market demands, and the strongly gender-based division of labor constrain both men’s and wom- en’s ability to improve existing livelihoods or to find alternatives. How- ever, rural women’s opportunities are particularly limited because they tend to be poorer than men and have lower levels of human development. Poverty lowers a person’s capacity to seek, train, or engage in alternative livelihoods, and the low level of human development leads to decreased skills and productivity in existing livelihoods. Rural women face addi- tional challenges to improving existing livelihoods because they have less access to extension services and credit (FAO 2005; IFAD and FAO 2007; Kaisi and Alzoughbi 2007). The overall rate of female participation in the labor force for the re- gion is only 27.6 percent. This rate is well below the global average for 288 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries low- and middle-income countries, which is just over 50 percent (see ta- ble 7.1). Women represent approximately 50 percent less of the labor force than men in Arab countries. It is not that women do not work; it is that they are often not paid for their labor, and their labor is not always recognized as work (FAO 2005). Where women perform the majority of agricultural labor, as in a number of Arab countries (see figure 7.1), they often have fewer skills to apply to other types of work. In most Arab countries, rural men are expected to maintain their status as the bread- winner for the family, and they will typically seek alternative employment when faced with unsustainable rural livelihoods. Challenges to human development, especially those related to health and education, are often different for men and women. This disparity has important implications for men’s and women’s opportunities to improve and diversify their livelihoods. Challenges to human development are ex- acerbated by continued population growth (IFAD and FAO 2007). Ma- ternal mortality rates are 613.0 per 100,000 births in the least developed country subregion, higher than global developing country averages (see table 7.1). Although data are lacking, clear indicators show that other health problems disproportionately affect rural women and children. This finding is often the result of the inadequate provision of primary health care. Significantly, rural children are 1.7 times more likely to be underweight than urban children in Arab countries, and child mortality rates remain high in the region’s least developed countries (IFAD and FAO 2007). Although Arab countries have made progress in education for women, gender gaps also still exist in literacy and education in the Arab world; on average, literacy rates are over 15 percent lower for women. This gender gap in literacy is particularly pronounced among rural populations. This finding is particularly troubling in terms of peo- ple’s capacity to adapt to climate change, because illiteracy rates are strongly correlated with poverty (IFAD and FAO 2007). In many cases, the increased productive skills and earning capacity of rural Arab women that result from greater education and human develop- ment are not being sufficiently taken advantage of to improve adaptation. For example, the low rate at which women transition from school to the labor market is a major obstacle to development in the region. Simulations using household survey data show that the benefits of enhanced participa- tion of women in the labor force extend to the entire household, raising average household incomes by up to 25 percent (World Bank 2004). Rural women’s limited participation in decision making weakens a country’s overall ability to adapt Low female participation in decision making at household, community, and national levels is a major obstacle to sustainable adaptation. Women’s Gender-Responsive Climate Change Adaptation: Ensuring Effectiveness and Sustainability 289 participation in parliament ranges from just below 6 percent to 15 percent in the Arab region, with an average of just over 9 percent (see table 7.1). This finding puts Arab countries significantly below the world average of 18 percent, and behind all other regions. The next lowest regional average is for South Asia, where women hold 14 percent of seats in parliament (World Bank 2009, 2007 data). At the community level, women’s agency is also limited, including a limited ability to participate in formal groups, be- come members of rural organizations, and act independently. Though more research is needed to understand fully why this is the case, certain factors help explain the problem (FAO 2005). These factors include tradi- tional restrictions on women’s mobility and autonomy, sociocultural norms that weaken rural women’s decision-making power, women’s daily labor burdens, and their lack of access and rights to certain livelihood assets. The importance of women in decision making and social and political development is sometimes underestimated. Gender roles and norms are not impervious to change, and many rural women in Arab countries do play significant roles in decision making at all levels. Within the house- hold, women wield more power in decision making in areas in which they are central to the process of production. For example, in some regions women have significant decision-making power over the management of dairy and poultry production (FAO 2005; IFAD and FAO 2007; Obeid 2006). Recently, decision making related to rural livelihoods has been subject to significant change because of the introduction of new technolo- gies and mechanization. Thus modernization has reduced the need for the time-consuming contributions of women (Chatty 1990, 2006; Obeid 2006) and has been detrimental to their authority. By contrast, women have been instrumental in leading and organizing the popular movements for political change in the region in 2011 and 2012. Rural women possess valuable knowledge related to adaptation deci- sion making. For example, in the southern region of Syria, women have specific local knowledge of indigenous plants and their uses for food or medical purposes. This experience can help reduce the risk of illness in the wake of exposure to climate change impacts (Kaisi and Alzoughbi 2007). Overall, women’s knowledge can contribute to biodiversity pro- tection (and lower sensitivity to climate change impacts), community re- silience, and the increased effectiveness of adaptation projects (Demetria- des and Esplen 2008). Finally, it should be noted that 65 percent of the population in Arab countries is below 30 years of age and becoming younger. This demo- graphic change will certainly alter current gender dynamics. The youth are likely to have been raised in smaller families (in households more separated from the extended family than has generally been the norm), where gender disparities are often less pronounced (World Bank 2004). 290 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Regional Case Studies Demonstrate How Gender Consideration Makes a Difference in Adaptation This section provides contextualized examples of the links between gen- der, climate change, and adaptation in Arab countries. These examples pertain to water scarcity in the Republic of Yemen, agricultural liveli- hoods in Morocco, and drought in northeast Syria. A fourth case study discusses Jordan’s approach to improving gender responsiveness in adaptation. Identifying Gender-Related Challenges Is Essential in Managing Water Scarcity in the Republic of Yemen The Republic of Yemen’s water crisis has been particularly detrimental for women and children for several reasons. First, the inadequate access to drinking water has led to the spread of diseases such as malaria, bilhar- zia, and diarrhea (Assad 2010; World Bank 2011a). Second, water scarcity has negative implications for food security and malnutrition, which often affect women and children disproportionately. Third, water scarcity in- creases women’s workloads as distances to clean water sources increase, making the daily task of collection more time-consuming. In one study, 58.4 percent of women surveyed reported spending time collecting water, compared to just 7.8 percent of men (Koolwal and van de Walle 2010). Because of its impact on women’s time, water scarcity has serious implica- tions for many aspects of women’s well-being and, by extension, for the well-being of the community as a whole: • Female education. Increased workloads and time burdens for women mean that girls have less time to attend school.7 An already large gen- der gap in educational enrollment is widening in some areas because girls are increasingly needed to help collect water (Assad 2010; IRIN 2009; World Bank 2011a, forthcoming b).8 • Women’s potential to engage in income-generating activities. In a study of two rural communities with no piped water or gas stoves, less than 25 percent of women’s time was devoted to productive activities. By com- parison, in communities with piped water and gas stoves, between 38 and 52 percent of time was devoted to productive activities (World Bank, forthcoming b). • Health. Less time is available for caring for household members, which threatens the health of families. A one-hour reduction per day in the time it takes to collect water improves children’s health, especially for girls (Koolwal and van de Walle 2010). Gender-Responsive Climate Change Adaptation: Ensuring Effectiveness and Sustainability 291 • Participation in water management and decision making. Despite women’s crucial roles in water and natural resource management, their partici- pation in water-related decision making remains weak (Assad 2010). Increased time burdens mean that women are less available to take part in water organizations and development or adaptation projects. Box 7.3 gives an example of a water management project in the Republic of Yemen that seeks to address some of these challenges. BOX 7.3 Community-Based Water Management in the Republic of Yemen: Improving Climate Change Awareness, Water Management, and Child Health, and Empowering Women A community-based water management Women were trained in filter use, clean- project in the Amran district of the Republic ing, and maintenance. of Yemen has a strong focus on gender. The Positive results occurred within several German Agency for Technical Cooperation areas: (GTZ) project emphasizes the following: • Water management. Female VWC mem- • Building women’s capacity to participate bers noted that women’s participation in in water management–related decision committees meant that they were able to making. address the real needs of the water sec- • Raising women’s awareness of methods tor and to raise awareness about cistern to conserve and purify water. management and use. Several project strategies were used to • Health. Achievements included reduc- empower women, including the following: tions in waterborne diseases affecting children and decreased expenditure on • Literacy classes were taught by young health. women from the community who re- • Attitudes toward women. Women’s effec- ceived training in teaching adults. tive participation, both in the project and • Thirty-eight village water committees in the VWCs, sensitized men and reli- (VWCs) were established and led by gious and community leaders to gender community members, with strong female inequalities in adaptation. participation. • Women’s empowerment. Some female com- • Sand filters were distributed to schools, mittee members noted that women’s par- mosques, and nongovernmental organi- ticipation encouraged them to take part zations. The Yemeni Women’s Union in elections for the local council, increas- played a leading role in raising aware- ing women’s access to decision-making ness of the health benefits of sand filters. processes. Sources: Assad 2010. 292 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Women’s Engagement in Agribusiness Sustains Rural Livelihoods in Morocco The small farming communities in the High Atlas region of Morocco, which feed a large proportion of the country’s urban population, are largely self-sufficient in terms of food security and productive activities. However, this region is highly exposed to climate change, which includes shifts in temperatures and rainfall patterns (Messouli and Rochdane 2011). In these communities, women undertake all domestic duties as well as many agricultural tasks—indeed, women carry out more than 50 percent of agricultural labor in these communities. Furthermore, out of economi- cally active rural women across Morocco, 92 percent are engaged in agri- culture, around a third of whom are under the age of 19 (Messouli and Rochdane 2011). Women’s agricultural tasks include gardening, milking, harvesting, olive collecting, and other work in the fields. Women are also heavily involved in cattle breeding and the cultivation of cereals, legumes, and industrial crops. Interviews and focus group discussions by Messouli and Rochdane (2011) in these farming communities show that men and women have different priorities. In these discussions, men often spoke of migrating while women talked more about having to take on new activities at home. Men frequently undertake seasonal migration for herding and trading, leaving women to manage natural resources in the increasingly climate- sensitive ecosystem (Messouli and Rochdane 2011). As a result of this dynamic, agriculture has come to be increasingly managed by women in some Arab countries, including Morocco (FAO 2005). Box 7.4 provides a specific example of a women-run initiative in Morocco. Gender Roles and Relations Inform How Communities Adapt to Drought in Northeast Syria A recent multi-year drought in northeast Syria has had major impacts on rural women and men (see chapters 1, 3, and 5 of this volume). According to the United Nations, up to 80 percent of those severely affected (mostly women) lived on a diet of only bread and sugared tea. Women, unless pregnant, were often expected to forgo a meal during food shortages. School dropout rates were high, and enrollment in some schools de- creased by up to 80 percent, partly because families were migrating and partly because children were being sent to work to supplement household incomes (UN 2009). According to local reports, girls were often the first to be taken out of school. Migration is a highly gender-related phenomenon. In responding to climate hazards, men and women consider different options, at different Gender-Responsive Climate Change Adaptation: Ensuring Effectiveness and Sustainability 293 BOX 7.4 Addressing Gender-Related Challenges in Adapting Agricultural Livelihoods in Morocco In response to growing rural poverty, the Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture’s 2020 Rural Development Strategy emphasizes the importance of empowering women farmers and recognizing them “as producers and managers of ecosystems.” The government, with international assistance, is helping women improve and diversify their livelihoods. Initiatives to improve women’s skill sets include reducing the use of wood for fuel, promoting biogas and solar energy, and digging wells. These initiatives improve agricultural practices and alleviate women’s workloads, which enable them to diversify their livelihoods and boost incomes. In Morocco’s semiarid south, around the town of Sidi Ifni, every family has its own plot of land. With backing from the Ministry of Agriculture, young people and women are receiving training and finding employment in the production of new health and cosmetic products from the prickly pear cactus. The previous small-scale production of the plant is being transformed into a significant industry, creating a small economic miracle. Cactus cooperative members say that the status of women has increased and lives have been transformed. Members stress, “We could never have imagined that we could get such a good income from (cactus products). You don’t have to be educated to work in the factories. Our children are feeling the benefits. There is much more money to be made out of cactus and it is women who are earning it.” Source: Messouli and Rochdane 2011. stages. In response to the Syrian drought, which compelled people to abandon traditional livelihoods (ACSAD and UNISDR 2011; World Bank, forthcoming a, chapter 1), men often travelled south to work as farmers and herders among nomadic tribes near the Jordanian border or to find employment in Jordan and Lebanon. By contrast, women often travelled west to the coastal zones, where greenhouse production of veg- etables near Tartous provided employment opportunities. The impact of the drought on rural livelihoods has, in many cases, led to the estrange- ment of family members (ACSAD and UNISDR 2011). This breach with 294 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries customary family structures has immense impacts on men, women, and children. Migration can also provide new opportunities. In 2008, a community of 20 families from the Sba’a tribe emigrated from the Badia rangelands and settled on the outskirts of Palmyra. The children, both girls and boys who previously tended to sheep, are now enrolled in primary school. Mi- grated families also reported better nutrition and improved access to health care. Among some families it is also acceptable for young women to migrate and take up work. As a result, women may gain greater social and financial independence through new economic opportunities. How- ever, already high levels of unemployment and a lack of marketable skills for urban settings, particularly among young people and women, may mean that migration does not easily yield such opportunities. In areas where men’s skill sets are limited, migration is not necessarily empowering for males. Men may become vulnerable to exploitation, harsh working conditions, and low pay. Such an outcome can be frequent because it is common for young men to work outside Syria, often in Leba- non, and be expected to send home remittances. Among those remaining in Syria’s northeast, there has been a sharp rise in the number of female-headed households. This can be both a blessing and a curse. Some female heads of household, left behind by their migrating husbands, may fall into poverty if they lack the skills to engage in financially productive activities. Others, benefitting from remittances, may gain increased autonomy and authority. Jordan Has Developed Policy Instruments for Gender-Responsive Adaptation In May 2011, having recognized that addressing the gender-related dy- namics of adaptation is critical to fulfilling the country’s development goals, Jordan, in partnership with the IUCN, became the first Arab coun- try to mainstream gender in climate policy.9 Jordan now has a framework for action (for 2011–16), including practical policy guidelines (referred to in annex 7A, panel a), and is moving toward a more integrated and sus- tainable approach to adaptation. The gender mainstreaming process in climate policy and action began in 2008–09. National assessments examined the status of women and gen- der equality, the nature of climate change impacts, and how these issues are correlated in local contexts. Informed by field visits and research, the program was based on current national priority sectors (water, energy, agriculture and food security, and waste reduction and management). A workshop in 2010 attended by stakeholders from women’s organizations; ministries of environment, water and irrigation, agriculture, finance, planning, and health; the United Nations Development Programme; Gender-Responsive Climate Change Adaptation: Ensuring Effectiveness and Sustainability 295 GIZ (German Agency for International Cooperation);10 academic insti- tutions; and the National Center for Agricultural Research and Extension also constituted an important part of the process. Following this prepara- tion, the government of Jordan plans to mainstream gender perspectives into its Third National Communication to the UNFCCC. This plan is to be achieved by completing a systematic gender analysis, collecting and using sex-disaggregated data, establishing gender-sensitive indicators and benchmarks, and developing practical tools to support increased atten- tion to gender perspectives in adaptation. Jordan is a signatory to several key international agreements, which commits it to gender mainstreaming. In 2007 it also ratified the Conven- tion for the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women.11 The government recognized that gender equality and women’s empow- erment are means for promoting development and adaptation, and has adopted a participatory approach in local governance for sustainable and equitable natural resource management. The 2012–16 Jordanian wom- en’s strategy, developed by the National Jordanian Commission for Women, incorporates climate change adaptation as an area of concern in its work. This complements and supports the program’s emphasis on women as agents of change in adaptation. Multiple Approaches Are Needed to Incorporate a Gender Perspective in Adaptation Effective adaptation demands the full potential of entire societies. Thus, adaptation strategies must be inclusive and empowering to those who face barriers to developing their potential, namely women and other vulner- able groups. At the same time, climate change increases the urgency to address the underlying causes of poverty and gender-based inequality and vulnerability, which represent significant challenges in some countries. Persistent gender inequalities are already putting huge strains on political and socioeconomic systems—strains that climate change threatens to ex- acerbate. To improve the responses to these challenges, it is important to improve gender equality in rural areas, improve the gender responsive- ness of rural development and adaptation projects at all levels, and im- prove the collection and availability of data relevant to gender and climate change in rural areas. Build Resilience to Climate Change through Increasing Gender Equality Tackling the specific drivers of gender-based vulnerability to climate change is critically important for adaptation. Holistic development is 296 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries essential for adaptation and cannot be achieved without tackling gender inequalities. Continued investment in achieving existing development goals, if harmonized within the region’s adaptation needs, will reduce sensitivity to climate change and build adaptive capacity. Arab countries should continue to address gender inequalities by tack- ling the sociocultural, political, and economic mechanisms that perpetu- ate them. Priority areas for the region are improving equality in access to resources, livelihood opportunities, and participation in decision making. This goal means continuing the progress toward gender equality, includ- ing addressing formal and informal practices that create inequalities in health, education, economic participation, agency, civil rights, autonomy, and participation at all levels. Also important are identifying and address- ing drivers of gender-based vulnerability to specific aspects of climate change impacts, such as barriers to women’s land ownership, low aware- ness of climate change, and limited skills for livelihood diversification (see annex 7A, panel c). Government policies also must address constraints to building adap- tive capacity among rural populations in general, including for men. Many Arab countries need to invest in their rural economies and develop social protection frameworks that benefit the most vulnerable (see chap- ter 4). Such policies should include solutions for poor men and women (da Corta and Magongo 2011). Increase Gender Responsiveness in Adaptation Strategies and Projects in All Sectors New frameworks, principles, and capacity-building efforts are needed for developing and implementing gender-responsive adaptation. There is no one-size-fits-all set of policies for addressing all the issues explored in this chapter. Standardized solutions from other contexts—if imported with- out modification—could lead to the erosion of local methods for increas- ing resilience (Magnan et al. 2009). The methodological tools developed by international institutions, and in other regions, for building a gender- responsive approach to adaptation are essential, but they should also be adapted to fit local sociocultural contexts. They should ensure the effec- tive participation of women and men and aim to activate the full potential of gender-specific knowledge in adaptation. National and institutional level The overarching set of tools for building the capacity of institutions to integrate gender responsiveness in all aspects of adaptation planning and management is encompassed within gender mainstreaming. There is no Gender-Responsive Climate Change Adaptation: Ensuring Effectiveness and Sustainability 297 single way to mainstream gender, and several frameworks exist that can be considered.12 An institutional framework and guideline of strategies for implementing a gender mainstreaming project at the national govern- ment level, based on the Jordanian experience, is outlined in annex 7A, panel a. Since the launch of that project, a number of other Arab coun- tries, including Bahrain and Egypt, have initiated similar projects to de- velop gender-mainstreaming programs and build the capacity of institu- tions to address gender-related challenges and opportunities in climate change adaptation. One key problem with gender mainstreaming, as experienced in other areas of development, is that it can be seen as an end in itself, instead of a tool and a process. For example, the inclusion of female participants, or the requirement to conduct training sessions on gender, has the tendency to become the goal, regardless of the actual impact that taking these steps has. The translation of national-level policies into effective and consistent implementation of gender issues at the project level requires leadership, capacity, accountability, funding, and expertise, both in national govern- ments and among the managers and staff of relevant institutions.13 Fur- thermore, although establishing gender-mainstreaming mechanisms is crucial, this effort does not automatically offer solutions to gender-related issues in adaptation. Effective gender-responsive climate change adapta- tion in Arab countries also requires action on specific points such as those identified in this chapter. Project level Adaptation projects in all sectors must incorporate, as a matter of routine, instruments to identify and raise awareness of local gender-adaptation issues, and develop strategies to address them. Essential steps include context-specific gender analyses at the planning stage, monitoring and evaluation during and after implementation, and flexible mechanisms to adjust those steps if they are not working (see annex 7A). Projects should address both the immediate and practical needs of women and men, as well as the strategic14 needs of women. Addressing women’s strategic needs, by empowering them and building their adap- tive capacities, will help tackle the underlying drivers of gender-based vulnerability in the long term. In Arab countries, particular attention should be paid to strengthening—by both quantitative and qualitative measurements—women’s participation in decision making and leader- ship. In addition, project planners should focus on the potential effects of women’s lower access to resources and more limited opportunities for alternative livelihoods. 298 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries A key concern is to move away from a narrow focus on “vulnerable women” to a more holistic gender analysis that emphasizes the existing gender power relations within society that contribute to other forms of socioeconomic inequality. These gender analyses must identify who holds the power to identify priorities and solutions, shape debates, and make decisions (Demetriades and Esplen 2008). Once these power rela- tions are identified, solutions can be crafted. Finally, in responding to climate change–related disasters, Arab coun- tries need to incorporate a gender perspective into all stages of planning and implementation of disaster risk management projects. Action is neces- sary at three stages: (a) predisaster, to build local resilience by identifying sustainable adaptation options to keep affected livelihoods from further deteriorating; (b) during a disaster, by implementing a gender-sensitive response through systematic gender analyses at all stages; and (c) post- disaster, by identifying those most affected and targeting efforts to address their immediate needs and promote new livelihood opportunities. Improve the Collection and Use of Gender-Disaggregated Data The systematic, accurate, and sustained collection of data on key indica- tors and their consistent use in research, policy making, and project de- sign and implementation is crucial for addressing challenges and identify- ing opportunities related to gender in adaptation in Arab countries. Such data collection makes visible what is otherwise invisible, and tangible what is otherwise abstract. Data collection enables comparisons between communities, regions, and countries; assesses change over time; and mea- sures the effectiveness of policies and projects (Aguilar 2002). Quantitative as well as qualitative data improve the understanding of the implications of climate change and provide policy makers with the tools necessary for gender-responsive decision making in adaptation. Capturing data to reveal links between gender and adaptation requires research methods based on human welfare models (UNDP 2005). Thus countries must strengthen capacities and promote an enabling environ- ment for qualitative research. Data collection methods could include fo- cus groups, direct observation, and interviews, in addition to quantitative questionnaires and surveys. Adaptation projects should include local data collection and the de- velopment of indicators that target and measure local realities. This ap- proach will help ensure an awareness of underlying gender patterns; accurate assessments of women’s and men’s different needs for assistance; opportunities for capacity-building and adaptation initiatives; and infor- mation that can be used to strengthen the voices of vulnerable groups (box 7.5). Gender-Responsive Climate Change Adaptation: Ensuring Effectiveness and Sustainability 299 BOX 7.5 Unlocking Women’s Potential to Help Drive Adaptation in the Gulf Adaptation to climate change in Arab countries demands equal- ity of opportunity for men and women. Women are increasingly assuming leadership roles in many areas of life in the Gulf, and the huge increase in women’s education and public participation is an important driver of change in the region. However, barriers to the development of women’s capabilities persist in the science, technology, and engineering sectors. This situation weakens the potential of Gulf countries to develop creative and innovative cli- mate change adaptation strategies. Gulf countries are shifting toward building knowledge-based economies based on the sciences, but only a small proportion of students are enrolled in these areas, regardless of sex. More women and men are needed in the sector. Some of the measures Gulf countries can take to improve women’s adaptive capacity through education include the following: • Improving the understanding of how young people make educa- tion- and career-related decisions, to identify ways to encourage women to participate in science. • Strengthening partnerships between higher education institu- tions, education’s governing bodies, and the private sector to provide relevant programs, develop attractive career paths, and reach out to female students. • Increasing the visibility and accessibility of female role models and building networks for women in science and technology. Source: Authors’ compilation. Key Messages • Climate change impacts are not gender neutral. • Gender inequalities intensify vulnerability to climate change by in- creasing sensitivity to exposure to climate change impacts and reduc- ing adaptive capacity. • In Arab countries, women are often among those least able to adapt to the impacts of change because they are more likely to be poor than men, they are often responsible for natural resource and household 300 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries management, they lack access to resources and opportunities for im- proving and diversifying livelihoods, and they have limited participa- tion in decision making. • Women are key stakeholders in adaptation and important agents of change. Arab countries need to focus on further empowering women to be effective leaders in adaptation. • Climate change constitutes a threat to development achievements and progress toward the Millennium Development Goals, including gen- der equality (MDG 3), because it threatens to deepen gender inequali- ties and worsen poverty. • To build resilience to climate change, Arab countries need to do the following: 0 Increase gender equality in all domains, particularly in access to resources, opportunities for improving and diversifying livelihoods, and participation in decision-making and political processes. 0 Develop mechanisms to improve the gender responsiveness of ad- aptation policies and projects at both national and project levels. 0 Improve the collection and use of sex-disaggregated data on rele- vant indicators. Gender-Responsive Climate Change Adaptation: Ensuring Effectiveness and Sustainability 301 ANNEX 7A Matrix of Proposed Policy Options 1. Increase gender-responsiveness in adaptation strategies and projects in all sectors: gender mainstreaming: Proposed policy actions National and institutional level Ratify international and regional conventions related to gender and adaptation. (based on the framework for Establish coordination between all relevant government bodies and other institutions: Jordanian gender mainstreaming • Support the development of a network of gender and climate change experts or focal in climate policy and action)a points. • Appoint a permanent gender expert on the national climate change committee or equivalent and establish a consultative support group to work with this expert. Develop understanding of the main gender and adaptation priorities in the local context: • Support research and data collection on the links between gender and adaptation (see panel b). • Disseminate data and results of research. Establish regulations that enforce the incorporation of gender-related criteria in adaptation strategies and programs. Involve women’s organizations in adaptation strategies and address adaptation in national gender strategy: • Build awareness of climate change issues among women’s organizations to enable them to identify opportunities for their full participation in the relevant processes. Strengthen the capacity of institutions implementing the mainstreaming program: • Develop a specific training protocol to form an integral part of the national mainstreaming program. • Carry out systematic and ongoing gender training workshops and courses on specific issues for all staff, policy advisers, and senior managers—adapted to their specific responsibilities—to build capacity to incorporate gender issues throughout the project cycle and promote gender equality through their roles. • Adopt a learning-by-doing approach to training, to distill lessons from the field, and support bottom-up policy development. Establish and enforce gender-responsive budgeting practices to ensure that adequate resources are available for strengthening gender responsiveness in adaptation. Secure ongoing funding to ensure the continuation of the program, including through bilateral dialogue with international adaptation funding mechanisms. Monitor and evaluate progress regularly and update program priorities, methods, and training materials accordingly: • Establish gender-sensitive reporting, monitoring, and evaluation systems. • Involve gender experts in the preparation of national climate change communications and negotiations. • Consider other measures of progress. For instance, in a key measure in Jordan in May 2011, the Jordanian National Committee for Women’s Affairs’ National Strategy for Women in Jordan included specific gender- and climate change–related objectives and activities. (Annex continues next page) 302 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries ANNEX 7A Matrix of Proposed Policy Options (continued) Project levelb Allocate adequate financial and human resources for implementing gender mainstreaming. Carry out surveys and analysis of gender roles, norms, power relations, and gender-specific constraints. Ensure equal and effective participation of women and men in project and policy formulation and planning. Identify and address risks and opportunities for men and women. Identify women’s and men’s needs and preferences. Distinguish practical and strategic gender needs. Identify differing vulnerabilities of men and women along with other differences (such as age, wealth). Integrate results of all of these analyses in project aims and planning. Develop measures to address locally specific constraints, such as to women’s participation in the project. Study, document, and build on women’s and men’s local practices and indigenous knowledge. Ensure equitable sharing of benefits between men and women. Include gender-related criteria in monitoring and evaluation. 2. Improve the collection and use of data disaggregated by sex and by age: Proposed policy actions There are several steps for improving the availability, accessibility, and analysis of sex- and age-disaggregated data: • Determine the extent of existing sex- and age-disaggregated data. • Make available data accessible. • Strengthen analysis by presenting sex- and age-disaggregated data where available. • Improve data collection practices to ensure that all relevant data are disaggregated by sex and age where those disaggregated data are not available. The following are examples of relevant data: • Impacts of extreme events on health (mortality; diseases see chapter 8). • Indicators related to the longer-term impacts of climate change (including household-level microeconomic data). • Participation in rural land and water organizations and committees; sex-disaggregated data on numbers and categories of people participating in rural land and water organizations and committees and training courses. • Access to or ownership of land. • Principal source of household income. Systematically integrate sex- and age-disaggregated data in projects and policy-level development and adaptation interventions via gender mainstreaming frameworks. Climate change is likely to cause important shifts in, for example, the use of time and division of labor. Data collection must be expanded to encompass these changes, as in the following: • Study the relationships between gender and climate change adaptation through data collection methods such as surveys on time use and division of labor, focus groups, direct observation, and interviews. Support the collection of information on local knowledge and practices (for example, on local water management systems, agricultural practices, and biodiversity and ecosystem management) to help base adaptation projects and policies on women’s and men’s local knowledge and preserve that knowledge. Gender-Responsive Climate Change Adaptation: Ensuring Effectiveness and Sustainability 303 ANNEX 7A Matrix of Proposed Policy Options (continued) 3. Build resilience to climate change through increasing gender equality: Proposed policy actions Adaptation means continuing good development. Continue to invest in development and strengthen gains in gender equality in all areas of life: literacy, education, and skills development; health; employment; participation in decision making at all levels; and rights. Ensure that campaigns to raise awareness of climate change and adaptation options (for example, on sustainable natural resource management and sustainable technologies and practices in agriculture) reach women and children: • Analyze factors constraining women’s access to information and target campaigns accordingly. • Analyze gender patterns in sources of information to improve targeting of awareness campaigns, particularly where illiteracy rates are high. • Train female community leaders to raise awareness. • Link to general literacy and education initiatives. Promote and invest in innovative new areas of business in rural economies: • Emphasize improving opportunities for women. • Conduct gender-sensitive value-chain mapping and foster women-centered value chains. • Provide business-related training for rural populations. Increase rural and urban women’s skill-development and capacity-building opportunities. Particularly emphasize rural women’s skills and opportunities in countries where feminization of rural societies is occurring (owing to out-migration of men) or where there are significant gender gaps in education, nonagricultural skills acquisition, and alternative employment opportunities. • Develop training in community and political participation skills. • Develop business-related training. • Link to general literacy and education initiatives. Promote inclusive extension services, addressing gender-specific barriers to access. Train women extension agents. Tailor infrastructure development to reduce women’s domestic burden (increase service delivery for all): • Improve roads. • Increase access to fuel for heating and cooking. • Improve water access. Implement targeted social protection, including insurance schemes, rural pensions, access to credit, and cash transfer programs: • Assess the needs of women-headed households in particular. Reform regulations for accessing credit: • Analyze gender differences in access to credit. • Remove the criterion of being a named landowner. • Design credit schemes specifically for women. Reform property rights law and practices related to land and property: • Allow joint spousal titling of land and property, to guarantee equal rights to property acquired during marriage. • Reduce significance of marital status for legal status and land or property ownership. • Review and reform laws and practices related to inheritance. • Simplify and disseminate knowledge on land laws. • Create mechanisms to improve the enforcement of existing land ownership laws. • Improve existing land access programs, especially by increasing emphasis on gender issues in access to land. • Support women’s collective schemes for securing land access rights. Reform membership practices of rural, land, and water organizations: • Analyze gender differences in participation. • Remove the common criterion of having to be a named landowner. Source: Authors’ compilation. a. Based on the IUCN (Regional Office for West Asia) Program for Mainstreaming Gender into Climate Change Initiatives in Jordan 2010, http:// www.iucn.org/ROWA. b. Adapted from Otzelberger 2011; FAO 2010. 304 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Notes 1. This sociocultural framework has been supported by macroeconomic factors that have limited women’s participation in the workforce. The kind of social contract that governments in the region have adhered to since the mid-20th century, which has been underpinned by generous but costly welfare states, large public sectors, and generous subsidies, has often reinforced women’s roles as homemakers (World Bank 2012). 2. The Nairobi Work Programme helps developing countries “improve their understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change” and “make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures” (see http://unfccc.int/adaptation/nairobi_work_ programme/items/3633.php). 3. An Arab regional framework plan for climate change being developed by the League of Arab States includes specific programs on adaptation (including water, land, and biodiversity; agriculture and forestry; industry, construction, and building; tourism; population and human settlements; health; and marine and coastal zones), which will be implemented over a period of 10 years. 4. Although the relationship between climate change impacts and migration cannot be reduced to simplistic causality, the impact of climate change will likely be an important determinant of migratory behavior in the future. 5. Female-headed households are those headed by women in the absence— whether temporary or permanent—of adult males who otherwise supply the main source of income for the household. 6. Landowners may not live on or work the land they own. Landholders live on and work the land they own. Many middle-class female landowners—who of- ten inherit land—rent their land to others, mainly men (IFAD and FAO 2007). 7. Existing constraints include the need for segregated classrooms and some- times resistance from male family members. The female youth literacy rate is 24 percent lower than for male youth (72 percent versus 96 percent), and the ratio of female to male primary enrollment is 80 percent. 8. Some research has found that boys and men may assist girls and women in the collection of fuelwood in the Republic of Yemen when they have to travel long distances or it is dangerous. Energy poverty can therefore affect male community members also (El-Katiri and Fattouh 2011). This may also be the case where water is scarce. 9. The program was launched in November 2010. See http://www.iucn.org/ ROWA. 10. At the time of the workshop, this entity was the German Agency for Techni- cal Cooperation (GTZ), prior to its merger with two other agencies to form the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ). 11. Article 2(a). 12. Refer to World Bank (2011b) for one example. 13. Refer to World Bank (2011b) for more specifics on how to mainstream gender. 14. Practical gender needs are the immediate needs of individuals to ensure their survival, within existing social structures (typically concerning living condi- tions, health, nutrition, water, and sanitation). Strategic gender needs (of women) are needs whose fulfillment requires strategies to challenge male dominance and privilege, through addressing gender-based inequalities. Often practical and strategic gender needs overlap (Reeves and Baden 2000), but this distinction can be helpful in developing gender responsiveness in adaptation. 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CHAPTER 8 Human Health and Well-Being Are Threatened by Climate Change For thousands of years, climate change has affected human life, civiliza- tion, and the fundamental requirements for health: clean air, safe drink- ing water, food, and shelter. Historical evidence demonstrates that the most serious threat to human health has been from impaired food yields, mostly attributable to droughts. In many cases, this has resulted in fam- ines and deaths, as well as in infectious disease epidemics (McMichael 2012). This is not peculiar to the Arab region, which has for millennia experienced frequent episodes of extreme and variable climate, often with serious implications for human health. During the Younger Dryas, nearly 12,000 years ago, the Natufians, in today’s northern Syria and the settlements along the Nile Valley, were hard hit by this climatic shock, and only a few survived as a result of its reduction in crop yields. With the start of the fourth millennium BCE, changing climatic conditions in southern Mesopotamia (Sumeria), which encompassed the lower Tigris and Euphrates River floodplains, increased food insecurity, hunger, and malnutrition. Despite efforts to cope with these changes, starvation spread widely, and with it the authority of the state diminished, ultimately leading to its being conquered by the up- stream Akkadian empire (northern Mesopotamia). This situation, however, did not last for long, and the empire col- lapsed around 2200 BCE because of the extension of droughts in the north, which caused more widespread starvation and malnutrition (Mc- Michael 2012). The region is also historically no stranger to a number of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases. Decipherable descriptions of malaria were recorded in Egyptian and Mesopotamian texts as early as 5,000 years ago. Although eradicated in a number of countries in the Photograph by Dorte Verner 309 310 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries region since then, in recent years, cases have started to reemerge in pre- viously nonendemic countries. In contrast, water-, food-, rodent-, and other vector-borne diseases recorded in ancient scripts from the region remain to this day and in some cases are increasing because of a warmer regional environment. Climate change poses a significant threat to public health at a global level, which includes the Arab countries (see, for example, box 8.1). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assess- ment Report declared that climate change “contributes to the global bur- den of disease and premature death” (Parry et al. 2007). Addressing the impacts of climate change on human health is challenging because of the wide spectrum of determinants that influence health. These determinants include the physical and social environment, old and new technologies, and changing political landscapes that reshape social and economic con- ditions. Health is directly and indirectly related to the impacts of climate change. Direct impacts of climate change on human health include mor- tality and morbidity from extreme weather events (floods, heat waves, droughts, and hurricanes); indirect impacts include longer-term climatic changes that affect the range and reproductive rates of disease vectors, extend transmission seasons, increase the incidence of food- and water- borne diseases, and lead to poor air quality and food insecurity (Parry et al. 2007). Figure 8.1 provides a conceptual framework depicting the links between climate change and human health. In a recent report, the World Health Organization (WHO) attributed 0.2 percent of annual global mortality to climate change (WHO 2009b). The same report attributes about 1.2 million annual deaths to urban air pollution, 2.2 million to diarrhea, 3.5 million to malnutrition, and 60,000 to natural disasters, all of which are climate-sensitive outcomes prone to increase with a warmer or more variable climate. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Report 2007/2008 pointed out that major deadly diseases could expand their cov- erage, especially in developing countries; for example, an additional 220 million to 400 million people could be exposed to malaria—a disease that already claims about 1 million lives per year (UNDP 2007). Mean- while, in certain geographic locales, climate change may positively affect health outcomes: milder winter seasons in some areas may lead to reduc- tions in cold-related morbidity and mortality, while increasing tempera- tures in some settings may limit the expansion of a number of disease- transmitting vectors, positively impacting the spread and endemicity of related illnesses (WHO, WMO, and UNEP 2003). Despite the multi- plicity of possible impacts, the threat that climate change is likely to pose to human health and security should not be underestimated (WHO EMRO 2008); the interactions between environment and health are com- Human Health and Well-Being Are Threatened by Climate Change 311 BOX 8.1 Recent Health Impacts Associated with Weather-Related Extreme Events in Selected Arab Countries Least Developed Countries • Oman was hit by powerful Cyclone Phet, • Sudan has experienced serious droughts which killed at least 44 people in 2010 in the past few years that have left nearly (chapter 1). 1.5 million Sudanese near starvation (Wakabi 2009). Many Sudanese grapple The Maghreb with water scarcity, live in unhygienic • Algeria experienced flash floods in 2008 environments, and suffer from malnutri- that killed 29 people, destroyed around tion (WHO EMRO 2008). 600 homes, and left hundreds homeless • The Republic of Yemen experienced (AP 2008). one of its worst floods in October 2008, • In Morocco, at least 30 people were which left 58 dead and 20,000 with- killed in November 2010 after heavy out shelter (CNN 2008). Another flood rain and floods. The floods affected occurred in May 2010 that killed at least the livelihoods of nearly 75,000 people seven people in a shantytown around (EM-DAT 2011). Sana’a (Reuters 2010). • In 2011, Somali droughts and conflict The Mashreq left an estimated 2.4 million people, or • The Arab Republic of Egypt suffered 32 percent of the country’s population, one of its worst storms in memory in dependent on foreign aid (UN News 2010, which destroyed more than 40 Centre 2011). homes and 57 electrical towers and killed 15 people (Hassan 2010). The Gulf • Jordan suffered one of its worst droughts • In 2009, heavy rains in Saudi Arabia in 50 years in 1999, which affected the left 150 people dead and substantially livelihoods of nearly 180,000 people and damaged shantytowns on the outskirts had the largest impact on food pro- of Jeddah (BBC 2009). Recently, Saudi duction. The country was also hit by Arabia experienced a similar disaster that another drought the following year that stranded people for days, killed 10, and affected another 150,000 people (EM- damaged local buildings (Byron 2011). DAT 2011). Source: Authors’ compilation. plex, highly dependent on local conditions, and dynamically shaped by national, regional, and international societal developments. Although a framework for action to protect health from climate change—through an effective and coordinated mechanism to strengthen institutional capacity—was endorsed in the 55th session of the Regional Committee for the Eastern Mediterranean in 2008 (WHO EMRO 2005), 312 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries FIGURE 8.1 Links between Climate Change and Human Health Source: Modified from Patz et al. 2000. technical and research-based reports addressing this issue specific to the Arab context and the adaptive capacities of health sectors are still scarce (Habib, El Zein, and Ghanawi 2010). This chapter examines the climate change–related public health chal- lenges that the Arab region faces. On the basis of this assessment, a course of action is recommended to help to reduce and manage the health im- pacts of climate change. Climate Change Threatens Human Health in the Region Extreme Weather Events Pose Direct Health Threats Extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, storms, fires, and heat waves, impact morbidity and mortality in Arab countries. Countries in Human Health and Well-Being Are Threatened by Climate Change 313 all four subregions have experienced these extreme weather events, which include floods, droughts, cyclones, or landslides resulting in death and illness (Musani and Shaikh 2008). Between 1990 and 2011, more than 200 natural disasters (droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, storms, and wildfires) resulted in more than 5,800 deaths in the Arab region (box 8.1) (EM-DAT 2011 and spotlight 1 of this volume). These extreme weather events are expected to increase and intensify as a result of global climate change (Parry et al. 2007). Victims of these disasters often find shelter in inadequate housing that lacks basic services, which increases the risk of water-, air-, and vector-borne illnesses and the rates of hunger and malnutrition (WHO EMRO 2008). Flood-related diseases Floods disrupt basic sanitation systems and increase probabilities of diar- rheal disease outbreaks. Pathogens from human or animal sewage often contaminate drinking-water sources during floods, which leads to in- creased risks of waterborne diseases, such as dysentery, hepatitis A, chol- era, typhoid fever, or leptospirosis. Floods may also indirectly lead to an increase in vector-borne diseases through the expansion in the number and range of vector habitats. For example, increased rates of diarrhea and malaria were reported following a 1988 flood in Sudan (Woodruff et al. 1990). Heat wave–related mortality and morbidity The region experienced seven extreme temperatures events from 1990 to 2011 with more than 100 deaths (EM-DAT 2011). Heat waves can cause death (a) directly through heat-related illnesses or (b) by aggravating pre- existing heat-sensitive medical conditions. Increased heat-related mor- bidity can occur, including mortality, through direct heat illness or through aggravation of preexisting diseases. Either of these outcomes may require primary care or hospitalization, and a proportion of this morbidity may eventually result in mortality. Additional risk factors for heat-related mortality arise from pressures on water and electrical sys- tems, risk-associated behavioral responses, and worsening environmental conditions, especially air quality. Although heat-related deaths are often documented as such, heat ill- nesses often may go unreported in low- and middle-income countries, calling for the use of proxies for baseline data when planning and design- ing public health interventions. Heat waves increase the risk of hyper- thermia (excessive body temperature), which poses serious health risks including heat exhaustion, cramps, heatstroke, and death. People with preexisting illnesses such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases are more prone to heat cramps, heat syncope, heat exhaustion, and heat- stroke as a result of elevated temperatures (McGeehin and Mirabelli 314 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries 2001). Research indicates that extreme weather events also are associated with numerous stress-related health problems: myocardial infarction, sudden cardiac death, and cardiomyopathy (Suzuki et al. 1997; Wata- nabe et al. 2005). Psychological impacts Extreme weather events have been associated with a variety of psycho- logical impacts attributable to loss, social disruption, displacement, and repeated exposure to natural disasters. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention projects that 200 million people will be displaced by cli- mate change–related factors worldwide by 2050 (CDC 2010e). In the Arab Republic of Egypt alone, 2 million to 4 million Egyptians may be displaced by a 0.5-meter rise in sea level (Rekacewic 2008). Natural disasters, geographic displacement, loss or damage of prop- erty, and death or injury of loved ones will exacerbate mental health prob- lems and stress-related disorders, from posttraumatic stress disorders to depression, anxiety, insomnia, and possible drug or alcohol abuse (Silove and Steel 2006). These events impact livelihoods and socioeconomic situ- ations, which in turn, could result in increased violence and injuries. Mental health disorders and psychiatric diagnoses are more frequent in countries that are politically volatile or violent (Al-Krenawi 2005), and this includes Arab countries. The effects of extreme weather attributable to climate change will exacerbate already prevalent mental health and stress disorders (Fritze et al. 2008; IWGCCH 2010). Climate Change Is Associated with Many Indirect Health Consequences Climatic changes, such as increased temperatures and more variable pre- cipitation, have indirectly affected health by influencing the endemicity of vector-, water-, and food-borne diseases. These changes also interfere with agricultural systems and affect crop yields, which could create food and water shortages leading to malnutrition. The relationship between increased temperatures and escalating morbidity and mortality has been supported by a number of studies from the region (El-Zein, Tewtel- Salem, and Nehme 2004; Husain and Chaudhary 2008). WHO estimated that in 2004, the world faced a total of 141,277 deaths and a disease bur- den of 5.4 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as a result of global climate change; the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR)1 had its share of 20,000 fatalities and a disease burden of 755,870 DALYs (WHO 2004). Actual figures may be much higher, given that the primary out- comes measured were diarrhea, lower respiratory infections, and malaria. Human Health and Well-Being Are Threatened by Climate Change 315 Vector-borne diseases Climate-related environmental changes, such as increased temperatures, variable humidity, and rainfall trends, may affect the density of vector populations, their transmission patterns, and infection rates (WHO, WMO, and UNEP 2003). The stress posed on water supplies by rapid human development has led to new dam and irrigation canal construc- tion, spurring changes in mosquito populations. Vector-borne illnesses— closely associated with temperature and humidity conditions—such as malaria, dengue fever, Rift Valley fever, and West Nile virus may inten- sify, reemerge in previously endemic areas, or emerge in areas and coun- tries previously unaffected. See box 8.2 for a description of vector-borne diseases. Water-related illnesses Water scarcity is a major concern for many Arab countries (see chapter 3).2 Inadequate water supplies, in quantity or quality, may lead to in- creased risk of waterborne illnesses such as diarrhea, typhoid, hepatitis, dysentery, giardiasis, bilharziasis, and cholera. Studies in Sudan and Leb- anon indicate that poor water quality, inadequate access to water, warm weather, poor sanitation and hygiene, and poverty are contributing fac- tors to diarrheal diseases (El Azar et al. 2009; Musa et al. 1999). Outbreaks of cholera in the past three decades have been affected by seasonal pat- terns, especially in countries near the equator (Emch et al. 2008). Cholera epidemics are likely to emerge in areas experiencing warmer weather and water scarcity (Emch et al. 2008; Huq and Colwell 1996), such as tropical zones and the Arabian Peninsula. Cases of cholera were reported in Dji- bouti, Iraq, Oman, and Somalia between 1995 and 2005 (WHO EMRO 2005). Cholera is endemic to Somalia with seasonal outbreaks in urban and rural settlements resulting in many deaths. The potential of water scarcity in the future threatens environmental sustainability in the region. The Jordan and Yarmouk Rivers’ waters may substantially recede, affecting Jordan and nearby territories (European Council 2008). The per capita renewable water resources in the region decreased from 4,000 cubic meters per year in 1950 to a current 1,100 cubic meters and are expected to decline to 550 cubic meters by 2050 (World Bank 2007). This decline in water availability may ultimately in- crease the incidence of cholera (Huq and Colwell 1996), although cholera epidemics have been mostly absent since 2000. As discussed in chapters 3 and 4, pressures on freshwater resources have increased the use of wastewater for irrigation. If improperly treated, wastewater can pose health risks to farmers, their families, and consumers (WHO EMRO 2008). A study of the waterways and canals in the Nile Delta carried out by the State Ministry for Environmental Affairs in 2009 316 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 8.2 Vector-Borne Diseases in Arab Countries Malaria is currently endemic in the Co- Djibouti and Somalia have seen outbreaks moros, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, and the of dengue fever in the past decade. In 2009, Republic of Yemen (WHO EMRO 2009). dengue fever was reported in Saudi Arabia, Cases have also been reported in the Arab Sudan, and the Republic of Yemen (WHO Republic of Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, EMRO 2009). In fact, in October of 2009, and the United Arab Emirates, although the city of Taiz in the Republic of Yemen not endemic in these countries (Al-Mansoob detected at least 350 confirmed cases of den- and Al-Mazzah 2005; Al-Taiar et al. 2006; gue. According to local authorities, dengue Bassiouny 2001; Hamad et al. 2002; Hassan is not an epidemic but rather a recurring et al. 2003; Himeidan et al. 2007; Malik et al. disease in the governorate, which appears 1998; Noor et al. 2008; WHO EMRO 2009). every two to three years. Leishmaniasis is a zoonotic disease caused Schistosomiasis (bilharziasis) is a visceral by protozoan parasites (genus Leishmania) parasitic disease caused by blood flukes and and transmitted to humans through carrier- transmitted to humans through freshwater phlebotomine sand flies. Increased inci- snails. Egypt has had problems in the past dence of leishmaniasis has been associated with schistosomiasis and there are reports with increased temperatures (Oshaghi et al. of it reemerging in the region (Government 2009), yearly rainfall and continentality in of Egypt 2010; Wiwanitkit 2005). Climate Tunisia (Ben-Ahmed et al. 2009), and heavy change and higher temperatures may affect rainfall and drought in Sudan (Neouimine the life cycle of snails leading to an increase 1996). Leishmaniasis has recently reemerged in the incidence of schistosomiasis. Increased in Saudi Arabia, Sudan, the Syrian Arab cases of schistosomiasis infection have been Republic, and Tunisia (Rathor 2000; Stur- reported during hot weather in Egypt and rock et al. 2009). Morocco (Khallaayoune and Laamrani 1992; Malone et al. 1997; Yousif et al. 1996), Lymphatic filariasis, dengue fever, and and increased incidence was reported during Rift Valley fever (transmitted by the vector rainfall in Saudi Arabia (al-Madani 1991). Culex pipiens mosquito) are similarly affected by climate change as temperature increases Trachoma is an infectious disease of the and high rainfall play an important role in eye and is transmitted in human feces. Inci- propagating the vectors that transmit them dences of trachoma are associated with hot, (Parry et al. 2007). Lymphatic filariasis is dry climates and in living environments that mainly endemic in the Nile Delta, exposing are overcrowded and have poor sanitation an estimated 2.7 million people (Epstein and limited access to clean water. Cases of 2002). Filariasis is endemic to Egypt, Sudan, trachoma were reported but not confirmed and the Republic of Yemen (Government of in Iraq, Libya, and Somalia, whereas the Egypt 2010) and affects around 0.4 million illness is endemic in Djibouti, Egypt, Mau- people in the three countries (El Setouhy ritania, Morocco, Oman, Sudan, and the and Ramzy 2003; Sturrock et al. 2009). Republic of Yemen (Polack et al. 2005). Source: Authors’ compilation. Human Health and Well-Being Are Threatened by Climate Change 317 found that organic matter concentrations and E. coli bacterial counts ex- ceeded the permissible levels in canal waters (EEAA 2010). In addition to the increased release of untreated sewage, the poor control of the use of sewage water for irrigation may possibly be a factor in some locations. Food-borne diseases and malnutrition Nearly 800 million people suffer from malnutrition, which causes 3.5 mil- lion deaths per year (WHO 2009a; WHO EMRO 2008). Currently, 32 million of these malnourished people come from 16 Arab countries: 8 million in Sudan and 6 million in the Republic of Yemen (FAO 2010). It is quite possible that a majority of the Eastern Mediterranean region will suffer from food shortages by 2025 (Al-Salem 2001). Malnutrition is a main contributor to child mortality, causing about half of the deaths for children younger than five years (WHO EMRO 2009). In general, analy- ses show that increased health expenditures per capita drastically reduce child mortality (figure 8.2). Hence, addressing health expenditures and increasing those for children can improve child health and reduce mortal- ity in the most affected countries. Studies have indicated an association between increased temperatures and food poisoning (Fleury et al. 2006; Kovats, Hajat, and Wilkinson 2004; Lake et al. 2009). Food-borne illnesses result from the ingestion of spoiled or contaminated food, such as seafood contaminated with metals FIGURE 8.2 The Relationship between Health Expenditures Per Capita and Child Mortality 120 Mauritania Sudan Under 5 mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) 100 Djibouti Comoros 80 Yemen, Rep. 60 Iraq 40 Algeria Morocco Egypt, Arab Rep. Lebanon 20 Jordan Saudi Arabia Kuwait Syrian Tunisia Libya Bahrain Oman Qatar Arab Republic United Arab Emirates 0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Health expenditure per capita (current US$) Source: Authors’ representation, based on World Bank World Development Indicators. 318 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries or crops with pesticide residues or microbes (IWGCCH 2010). Extreme weather events such as droughts encourage the proliferation of crop pests and the spread of mold that may be harmful to humans. Changes in cli- mate may also affect environmental ocean parameters that lead to the proliferation of existing or new pathogens that are harmful to human health (CDC 2010c). Harmful algal blooms produce toxins that, when ingested through shellfish, also cause human diseases (Parry et al. 2007). The increase in pests and weeds could also lead to a wider use of pesticides and a higher risk of pesticide exposure (CDC 2010c). Other health effects Weather conditions, including temperature, humidity, and wind, also af- fect ambient air quality, which is largely determined by anthropogenic sources of pollutants (CDC 2010a; Cizao 2007; IWGCCH 2010). Climate-related environmental factors, including dust storms, rainfall, and increases in temperature, raise the ambient concentrations of aeroal- lergens (including pollen and dust), ground-level ozone, and suspended particulate matter, which exacerbate respiratory illnesses (IWGCCH 2010). In Egypt, inhabitants suffer serious health effects from air pollu- tion, resulting annually in 15,000 bronchitis cases, 329,000 respiratory infections, and 3,400 deaths in Cairo alone (Anwar 2003; UNEP 2007). Increased human exposure to toxic substances as a result of climate change–related factors may be linked to cancers in humans (IWGCCH 2010). For example, volatile and semivolatile carcinogens are transferred from water and wastewater into the atmosphere as a result of higher am- bient temperatures, and toxic pollutants are washed out by heavy rains and floods, which contaminate runoffs and ultimately water resources (Macdonald et al. 2003). However, limited evidence has been established on these transfers and their impact on people’s exposure to carcinogens, and ultimately, their impact on cancer outcomes (IWGCCH 2010). There are no conclusive studies exploring linkages between climate or climate-mediated carcinogens and cancers in Arab countries (Habib, El Zein, and Ghanawi 2010), although limited government oversight of heavy industry heightens the probability that Arab populations are ex- posed to these substances. Cardiovascular illnesses have been linked to climate change–related variables such as average daily temperatures (Basu and Samet 2002; Braga, Zanobetti, and Schwartz 2002; Ebi et al. 2004). Physiological adjustments to cold and warmth are associated with changes in blood pressure, blood viscosity, and heart rate, all important determinants of mortality related to cardiovascular diseases and strokes (Martens 1998). Studies in Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and the United Arab Emir- ates show a significant association between climate change, specifically Human Health and Well-Being Are Threatened by Climate Change 319 temperature and humidity increases, and cardiovascular disease (Douglas et al. 1991; El-Zein and Tewtel-Salem 2005; El-Zein, Tewtel-Salem, and Nehme 2004; Shanks and Papworth 2001; Zawahri 2004). For some Gulf countries—Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—an assessment of climate change–related human health risks projected that between 2070 and 2090 rising mortality rates from cardiovascular dis- eases, respiratory illnesses, and thermal stress will be experienced (Husain and Chaudhary 2008). Studies have shown a steady increase in some forms of birth defects (Correa-Villaseñor et al. 2003). This could suggest a possible link to climate-related environmental changes such as increased temperatures and changes in rainfall that may increase human exposure to toxic sub- stances such as pesticides (IWGCCH 2010). Human development stages are most vulnerable at preconception, the fetal period, and early child- hood (Wadhwa et al. 2009). During these periods, exposures may alter developmental changes and cause functional deficits through mechanisms such as genetic mutations and epigenetic changes (Wadhwa et al. 2009). The estimated total annual birth defects in Arab countries is 622,000, constituting 7 percent of the estimated total annual birth defects in the world (8 million) (Christianson et al. 2006). Climate change may increase the incidence of neurological disorders in humans. Malnutrition, exposure to pesticides, hazardous chemicals, biotoxins, and metals in the air, food, and water increase the risk of neu- rological disorders, and all are expected to be worsened by climate change (CDC 2010a; Handal et al. 2007; Kar, Rao, and Chandramouli 2008). Studies have shown that the onset of Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease are occurring at an earlier age and with more severe symptoms because of changes in environmental conditions (Bronstein et al. 2009; Mayeux 2004). It is believed that changes in climatic conditions may also be partly responsible for the increasing number of children affected by learning disabilities (Bronstein et al. 2009; Mayeux 2004). The effects of climate change will also result in higher risks of neurological illnesses from inges- tion of or exposure to neurotoxins from harmful algal blooms in water and seafood (S. Moore et al. 2008; Sandifer et al. 2007). Although there have been very few studies on the occurrence of neurological disease in the Arab region (Benamer and Shakir 2009), a study in Libya reports 11,908 neurological patients in 2006 and a total of 6,892 new neurological cases per year (Benamer 2007). A study in Syria relates the incidence of ischemic cerebral lesions leading to stroke to climatic changes of high summer temperatures and unstable humidity (Zawahri 2004). Neurologi- cal disorders generally place a huge financial burden on national health care systems and on families and take a substantial toll on the quality of life of both the patient and the caregiver. 320 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Some Population Groups Are Particularly Vulnerable Certain groups or individuals may be particularly vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. Vulnerability depends on various factors such as population density, socioeconomic well-being, nutrition, environmen- tal determinants, preexisting health status, and the quality of and acces- sibility to affordable health care (WHO, WMO, and UNEP 2003). Some groups may be directly affected by their physical location: inhabitants of regions geographically located at the margins of areas where malaria and dengue fever are endemic will be more susceptible to these diseases if climate change results in the growth and geographic expansion of the vectors carrying these illnesses (WHO, WMO, and UNEP 2003). But geographic regions are also linked by ongoing sociocultural processes and events such as urbanization, rural development, immigration, and so forth, all of which reverberate through the lives of area residents and produce distinct health outcomes. Mass Gatherings Are More Hazardous in Hot Weather The annual hajj in Saudi Arabia—a mass gathering of Muslim pilgrims— often takes place during the hot summer (see also chapter 6 on tourism). This gathering exposes visitors to high temperatures and associated heat- related morbidity and mortality. In addition, infectious diseases are of particular concern among pilgrims because of the potential rapid spread of the disease. For instance, in 1987, a meningococcal disease spread among the pilgrims in Mecca and was carried elsewhere in Saudi Arabia, to other Gulf states, and to Pakistan, the United States, and the United Kingdom (P. Moore et al. 1989; Wilson 1995). Residents of Conflict Areas Will Face Even More Dire Conditions During conflicts, the social fabric and structural integrity of societies break down: housing and infrastructure are often destroyed, as was the case in Gaza during the 2009 bombardment (Abu-Rmeileh, Hammou- deh, and Giacaman 2010); state institutions may stop functioning; and many social resources are disrupted. Environmental events arising during conflict may aggravate existing health catastrophes or precipitate new ones. In addition, ecological processes associated with climate change may be a partial antecedent of conflict, as was the case in Darfur, Sudan.3 A number of Arab countries have been maligned by armed conflict in recent years, including Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, the West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. Nations may have to deal with the concurrent burden of conflict and of acute or prolonged natural disasters. Human Health and Well-Being Are Threatened by Climate Change 321 Institutions responsible for securing people’s health may be ill-prepared for the overwhelming burden of multiple catastrophic events. Residents of Low-Lying Areas Are Threatened by Rising Sea Levels Rising sea levels cause flooding and the intrusion of saltwater into the groundwater, which can lead to soil salinization and the deterioration of drinking water (El-Raey 2008 and chapter 6 of this volume). Increased salinity of surface water and groundwater also reduce crop and livestock yields and thereby further threaten food security and nutrition status (CDC 2010d). Harmful pathogens may also proliferate as a result of high water salinity (IWGCCH 2010). Residents of Camps, Shantytowns, Slums, and Rural Areas May Be Unable to Cope Residents of poor neighborhoods and slums are most likely to have inad- equate housing and limited access to water, electricity, food, and medical resources (Habib et al. 2011). Residents of these communities often deal with a number of social and environmental problems and, as a result, are more sensitive to infectious and chronic diseases and mental illnesses (Habib et al. 2011; Yemen Times 2011). Because of their precarious living environment, these residents may be more exposed to the negative im- pacts of climate change; and without adequate financial resources or so- cial capital, they may be unable to adapt to environmental changes pre- cipitated by climate change (Government of Jordan 2009). In the Arab region, rural areas have higher rates of poverty than do urban areas. Rural areas are also generally underserved by health care fa- cilities and emergency response services, which are often located far from people in need. In the event of extreme weather conditions, such as floods, hurricanes, heat waves, and dust storms, people living in remote locations are more vulnerable to environmental problems and less able to deal with the consequences of such events. For example, underserved populations in Lebanon are mostly concentrated in the rural north and east of the coun- try, although poverty and inadequate housing and infrastructure are wide- spread, even in the larger urban centers (Government of Lebanon 2011). Internally Displaced Populations and Refugees Are Extremely Vulnerable Populations are frequently displaced during extreme weather events, such as droughts or floods, and during conflict. There are many refugees and 322 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries internally displaced people (IDPs) in the Arab region. They include Iraqis, Lebanese, Libyans, Somalis, Sudanese, Syrians, people in the West Bank and Gaza, and Yemenis (Habib 2010; Habib et al. 2011; IDMC 2011). Many of the displaced are extremely vulnerable to disease because of their disadvantaged situation and their often precarious living condi- tions (St. Louis and Hess 2008). For example, in Lebanon, many refugees from Iraq and the West Bank and Gaza live in camps and shantytowns with poor infrastructure, low-quality housing, and an inadequate water supply, all of which increase the risk of disease (Government of Lebanon 2011). In the 2006 war in Lebanon, approximately 1 million IDPs took refuge in schools, gardens, or garages. During the conflict period, there were frequent reports of increased diarrhea, typhoid fever, hygienic ill- nesses (rash and lice), and an increase in incidence of chronic illnesses (Government of Lebanon 2011). When many IDPs returned to their vil- lages to find their homes destroyed, they occupied temporary tents that were inundated by water during the first heavy rain of winter. Outdoor Workers Face Harsh Weather Outdoor occupations in such sectors as agriculture, farming, fishing, and construction are particularly vulnerable to heat illnesses, especially in hot climates and places with high humidity (Shanks and Papworth 2001). Strenuous and physically taxing work coupled with extreme outdoor con- ditions may lead to heat exhaustion, hyperthermia, dehydration, and heat- stroke (McDonald, Shanks, and Fragu 2008). Construction workers, for example—who in Arab countries are usually unskilled and poorly paid— labor in high temperatures and humidity for long hours, which causes poor health and reduced productivity (Kjellstrom 2009). Heat stress can lead to serious physical injury, fainting, organ damage, and even death. Health centers in the Gulf region have dealt with heat stress among work- ers in outdoor occupations and are familiar with the problem (Deleu et al. 2005; Shanks and Papworth 2001). Recently, the government of Qatar—a country where about 24 percent of workers are employed in the construc- tion industry (Qatar Statistics Authority 2007)—restricted the work hours of certain occupations during the hottest parts of the day (Yeo 2004). Older Adults, Women, and Children Are among the Most Vulnerable Older adults, children, and pregnant women may be particularly vulner- able to environmental changes and temperature increases. The elderly have higher risk of heat-related illnesses such as heatstroke, cardiovascu- lar disease , respiratory disease, and heat-related mortality (CDC 2010b). Human Health and Well-Being Are Threatened by Climate Change 323 Pregnant women experience physiological changes that make them more susceptible to thermal stress. A large proportion of Arab women who are not generally involved in livelihood-related decisions are more vulnerable to poor environmental conditions resulting from climate change (UNDP 2009). Growing children are also more vulnerable to climate-induced en- vironmental changes (Bartlett 2008). Children have rapid metabolism, immature organs and nervous systems, developing cognition, limited ex- perience, and various behavioral characteristics and are at increased risk of heatstrokes, heat exhaustion and dehydration, injury, and infectious disease outbreaks (Bartlett 2008). Data and Research Are Needed to Fill Gaps To effectively address climate change and its impacts in the health sector, information is needed in Arab countries. The Arab region suffers from a dearth of climate change research and evidence-based policies mainly be- cause of deficient national and regional health surveillance systems (Habib, El Zein, and Ghanawi 2010). Many Arab countries lack the ap- propriate institutions and infrastructure to carry out the WHO approach of surveillance. The majority of the surveillance systems engage in collec- tion of data related to communicable and noncommunicable diseases, without correlation to environmental indicators, with the exception of Kuwait, Oman, and the West Bank and Gaza, which do report such indi- cators (WHO EMRO 2009). The surveillance systems of the region vary widely between fully func- tional and productive in a few countries to rudimentary and almost non- existent in others (Hallaj 1996). This is partly because of the lack of re- sources and human capacity, as well as other factors, such as political instability and conflicts. Data surveillance systems should ideally be linked to major health indicators related to climate change including food- and vector-borne illnesses, respiratory illnesses, malnutrition and hunger, population dis- placement, land loss, physical hazards, and others. For example, the cov- erage and quality of data on malaria in high-risk countries is still very limited and unreliable because of the lack of confirmatory facilities (WHO EMRO 2009). Only two countries (Sudan and the Republic of Yemen) have carried out national malaria prevalence assessments to measure past exposure in areas with low transmission (WHO EMRO 2009). In countries where such systems are less developed, researchers may be forced to elicit information from key stakeholders to explain how communities adapt to climate change, perceive risk, and measure their vulnerability. 324 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Collection of data related to specific diseases (HIV, malaria, maternal health) is often guided by WHO Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office (EMRO) initiatives. Toward that end, the WHO EMRO conducted an in-depth review of core capacities of the surveillance system in several countries, and technical guidelines and information were provided to the countries of the region (WHO EMRO 2009). Many Arab countries had included a plan for strengthening their surveillance systems in action plans for adaptation to climate changes presented at the Regional Semi- nar on Climate Change and Health held in Cairo in June 2008. Scope of Research Is Limited A comprehensive review of literature published on climate change and health in the EMR between 1990 and 2010 found a lack of evidence- based research directly exploring the relationship between climate change and health (Habib, El Zein, and Ghanawi 2010). The available studies were geographically limited to Egypt, Lebanon, Sudan, and countries in the Gulf (Habib, El Zein, and Ghanawi 2010). Despite the absence of a clearly established relationship, there is evidence of potential health im- pacts of climate change in the region. Several studies from the Arab re- gion have demonstrated the relationship between environmental causes of illness (heat, natural disasters, air quality, and infectious agents) health consequences, and environmental conditions that may be affected by cli- mate change (Habib, El Zein, and Ghanawi 2010). The scientific litera- ture has inadequately addressed two types of climate change knowledge: (a) analytical epidemiological research that studies specific infectious dis- eases and chronic illnesses particularly impacted by climate change (Habib, El Zein, and Ghanawi 2010) and (b) cost estimation studies that estimate the health burden and costs of climate change (Ebi 2008). Gov- ernments that have submitted “National Communications” have pro- vided basic cost assessments of health and climate change, but these are probably underestimated because of the absence of many activities and diseases in these estimates (Kovats 2009). Climate change research is particularly difficult because it requires both a multidisciplinary approach and an awareness of multilayered social, en- vironmental, and health processes. In the Arab region, the ability to re- search climate change issues is further complicated by the absence of effec- tive and coordinated surveillance systems, limited resources and institutional capacity, low level of government investment in research and develop- ment, and a lack of political will (Habib, El Zein, and Ghanawi 2010). There are several key gaps in regional research. Longitudinal studies over extended periods of time serve an integral role in investigating the Human Health and Well-Being Are Threatened by Climate Change 325 relationship between climate and health but have not been carried out in Arab countries. Disease mapping can be used in countries with limited research capabilities and where vector-borne diseases pose a major health risk. Disease mapping is considered less data intensive and allows for the assessment of disease in time and space and for analysis of patterns of presence and absence of disease (Bertollini and Martuzzi 1999). In addi- tion, specific models should be used to project the health impacts on vul- nerable populations, given various socioeconomic conditions (Parry et al. 2007). These models may be adapted from international studies and tai- lored to regional and local settings. Areas of interest include but are not limited to aeroallergens, malaria transmission (especially in highly en- demic areas), and water quality in coastal cities and areas already dealing with water scarcity. Research at the regional and national levels must further distinguish the relationship between climate, geography and en- vironment, and population health. Adaptive Strategies Exist to Improve Human Health and Strengthen the Health Sector Roles and Responsibilities To meet the challenges of climate change, Arab countries should take steps toward national preparedness and adaptation.4 Because of the cross- cutting nature of climate change issues, implementing initiatives requires horizontal and vertical coordination between multiple levels of regional and international organizations, government institutions, nongovern- mental organizations (NGOs), the business sector, and stakeholders from civil society and the public (see chapter 9). Although there is substantial progress in disaster risk reduction and strengthening of disaster preparedness plans in the region, this progress is still uneven across countries and the planning action for preparedness and adaptation is still underdeveloped (UNISDR 2009). Greater efforts and investments should go toward improving disaster prevention, espe- cially given its economic efficiency. Every US$1.00 invested in preventa- tive activities is estimated to save between US$2.50 and US$13.00 in di- saster aid (DFID 2005). Broad logistical constraints are a result of (a) the inadequacy of the legislative systems of many countries in the region and (b) lack of resources and funding to address the challenges posed by disas- ters (OCHA 2010). The IPCC (Parry et al. 2007) has flagged the need for both anticipa- tory and responsive strategies in which the roles of stakeholders are clearly identified. Responsive strategies aim at reducing current vulnera- 326 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries bilities to climate change that has already occurred and at preparing for possible extreme weather events. Anticipatory strategies aim at address- ing health outcomes associated with future projections of climate ex- tremes and changes in average temperature and precipitation. Both types of strategies would be implemented by a variety of stakeholders that in- clude international and regional organizations, national governments, health institutions and professionals, the general public, and academia. In addition, every opportunity must be exploited to involve civil society or- ganizations and the private sector—both of which can be involved in ser- vice provision and outreach—as well as community-driven climate pre- paredness initiatives at the household level. The selection, cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness analyses, and eval- uation of adaptive strategy alternatives are generally left to planners and decision makers according to strategic priorities and baseline conditions. International and regional initiatives are already under way The role of international and regional organizations is critical to provide support toward regional preparedness by establishing a skills and knowl- edge base among health professionals and policy makers in Arab coun- tries so they can support future developments in climate change research, advocacy, and intervention. Further, these organizations bring a wealth of knowledge, experience, and lessons learned across the region and on a global level, allowing the cross-fertilization of knowledge to benefit the entire region. To date, much has been accomplished within the regional and inter- national spheres pertaining to climate change. WHO is the parent to two organizations involved in programs related to climate change in the region: the Center for Environmental Health Activities and WHO EMRO. These organizations have worked closely with Arab govern- ments, health professionals, and civil society to develop national frame- works and systems for pressing environmental and health issues by offer- ing technical assistance, research grants, access to information, and other forms of support. For instance, international organizations and govern- ment ministries in Jordan have joined efforts in establishing programs on water quality, health protection, and food security to enhance Jordan’s capacity to adapt to climate change; these programs have linked the work of the UNDP with the Jordanian Ministry of Environment, WHO with the Ministry of Health, the Food and Agriculture Organization with the Ministry of Agriculture, and the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization with the Ministry of Education (UNDP Jordan 2011). Human Health and Well-Being Are Threatened by Climate Change 327 The Ministers of Health endorsed a new resolution during the 52nd session of the Regional Committee for the Eastern Mediterranean in 2005 encouraging member states to “further strengthen national emer- gency preparedness and response programs through legislative, technical, financial and logistical measures” (WHO EMRO 2005). In practical im- plementation of this resolution, the Arab health ministers are called to apply the basic pillars of health disaster preparedness as outlined in the World Health Assembly (Resolution 58.1) issued in 2005 by seeking WHO resources to (a) develop and implement their country-specific health-related emergency preparedness plans, (b) ensure adequate insti- tutional response to critical health needs during crises, (c) benefit from WHO health expertise for response operations, and (d) design, plan, and implement a transition and recovery program. National governments need to play an assertive role in adaptation The role of national governments focuses on establishing a framework for action and ensures its implementation by the various stakeholders and institutions involved. National governments would be primarily respon- sible for prioritizing, designing, and overseeing implementation of adap- tive policies as well as for emergency preparedness programs. Further, it is imperative that national governments allocate resources to cover such efforts and ensure both technical and allocative efficiency in their use. From another perspective, national governments would need to set up regulatory frameworks to ensure that policies are adhered to and pro- grams implemented. The public health sector needs to play a central role in providing for and protecting the health of local populations against the adverse affects of climate change. Health care systems in the Arab region are typically unable to provide sufficient care for all people. Many national systems suffer from inadequate funding, poor governance, and weak institutional capacity and coordination, as well as a sizable preexisting disease burden (Khogali 2005). Climate change, coupled with rapid population expan- sion and continued environmental degradation, will increase the disease burden and pressure health care systems. Providing a strong public health sector is a first important step toward preparedness and adaptation. The availability of health resources in the region differs substantially from country to country, depending on politi- cal, social, and economic conditions. The lack of funding and basic infra- structure in some states limits the adaptive capacity of their health sectors. Fundamental climate change adaptation measures for many Arab countries are complementary to the primary national health and infra- structural priorities, such as developing healthy environmental infra- 328 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries structure, containing the spread of infectious diseases, establishing exten- sive primary health services, and developing secondary and tertiary care capacity to address emergent health crises. Despite a clear need for basic adaptive measures (as expressed in national communications), there is little evidence that governments have made headway toward implement- ing such measures (ESCWA and LAS 2006). Efforts to address the health aspects of climate change fall primarily on the health sector, and in particular, national health ministries. These gov- ernment agencies would benefit by employing and empowering climate change specialists to help ensure the sustainability of governmental ef- forts to adopt climate change adaptation strategies. These task forces should also be responsible for involving other government offices as part- ners in climate change adaptation. The magnitude and cross-cutting na- ture of climate change problems require inter- and intragovernmental collaboration, commitment, and action. In sum, public health policies need to focus on adaptive capacity to reduce vulnerability, enhance public health services, strengthen disaster and emergency preparedness and response, and improve clinical manage- ment. The health sector needs to shift from being reactive to proactive, while recognizing that managing climate-related health impacts is a “no- regrets” approach. Health institutions must build their capacities One of the major responsibilities of health institutions is to build their capacities in terms of human capital and training. Health agencies and institutions should be mandated to design, implement, or enhance spe- cific programs and interventions in disease surveillance; epidemic fore- casting; prevention; outpatient outreach; vector control; water, sanita- tion, and hygiene; and nutrition. The public must be involved The public must understand the impacts of climate change on human health. Climate change and health need to be presented in lay terms to make the problem more personally relevant, significant, and comprehen- sible to all members of society. Communities have an important perspec- tive to share on climate change. Facilitating input from the public and civil society will strengthen adaptation policy and will spur local com- munity action to reduce the health impacts of climate change. Civil society organizations and the private sector are yet to be engaged in adapting to climate change Although there are many environmental NGOs registered in the Arab region, few have been actively engaged in climate change issues (Bluhm Human Health and Well-Being Are Threatened by Climate Change 329 2008). NGOs can play a strong role in mobilizing popular support through media campaigns, networking with key stakeholders from dif- ferent sectors, and lobbying policy makers in government. In 2007, a network of NGOs formed the Arab Climate Alliance, which advocates for just environmental policy and regional action on climate change. The alliance includes member organizations from Bahrain, the Comoros, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, the West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. A similar effort was initiated by the Arab Network for Environment and Development (RAED), which includes more than 200 NGOs that focus on environ- ment, sustainable development, and climate change–related issues in the region.5 The private sector also plays an important role in forwarding environ- mental goals through business ventures and “green” investment. Green architecture, construction, and landscaping companies have found a niche in several Arab countries. Focused on building and landscaping that is environmentally friendly, green development companies may be able to establish residential projects in areas most affected by climate change. For example, these ventures may be able to invest in low-cost and innovative construction methods that protect residents from extreme weather by using new heating and cooling techniques. Many of these projects may require joint partnerships between the public and private sectors in that there may be limited consumer demand for residential green develop- ment, especially among low-income, migrant, or displaced populations. The private sector is also involved in consulting governmental and non- governmental institutions on climate change issues. The private sector may be able to attract additional expertise on climate change issues that can inform health policy making and initiatives as well as play an impor- tant role in adaptation. Academic and research institutions are vital for producing evidence-based knowledge and training capacities The region has recently witnessed a huge surge in the number of private universities and research institutions. There are a number of established academic institutions with at least masters programs in environmental health or science (for example, the Graduate Environmental Science pro- gram at the American University of Beirut and the graduate program of the Institute for Environmental Studies and Research at Ain Shams Uni- versity in Cairo). The role of academic and research institutions is to help coordinate the surveillance and monitoring of health and environmental indicators, initiate research projects around climate change issues, and train professionals who will inevitably take leading roles in government and civil society. Academic institutions have a vital role in research and 330 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 8.3 Current Research Needs in the Arab Region Research on climate change and health Infectious diseases: Research and moni- should draw on the expertise of scientists toring techniques are needed to address the and researchers from Arab countries and growing threat of vector-borne diseases and include subregional, regional, and national the effects of ecological disruption; surveil- priorities. Some priorities for this research lance and early warning systems would include the following topics: enhance communication and prevention strategies. Heat-related morbidity and mortality: Multi-disciplinary research on the adaptive Research on water quality and water- capacity of vulnerable populations should related illnesses: Research is needed on explore socioeconomic, environmental, the vulnerability of water systems to flood- physical, and health parameters. In particu- ing or sewer overflow during extreme lar, the many countries in the Arab region weather, and the resultant proliferation that experience long hot summers would of pathogens, toxins, and chemicals. A benefit from this research. focus on detecting and monitoring the incidence of health threats related to Respiratory diseases: Techniques that sea-level rise and climate change is also monitor air quality and climate-sensitive warranted. exposures linked to respiratory diseases should be developed, and epidemiological Capacity building: Policy makers, sci- studies on the connection between chang- entists, and health professionals should ing climate variables and the onset of res- be trained in disaster management and piratory diseases should be pursued. In data collection and monitoring; in how to the Arab region, increased temperatures, respond to health emergencies; and in how reduced precipitation, and the tendency to to raise awareness among citizens regarding desertification can increase air pollution and climate-related health issues. the factors affecting respiratory diseases. providing support at a national and regional level. Specialties in epidemi- ology, biostatistics, communicable diseases, environmental health, occu- pational health, health services administration, and others are vital for providing the support for academic service coordination to deliver high- quality public health services. See box 8.3 for current research needs in the Arab region. Cross-Sectoral Collaboration In light of the cross-sectoral natural of climate change and health impacts, climate health strategies will require cross-sectoral collaboration. The Human Health and Well-Being Are Threatened by Climate Change 331 preparedness of the energy sector to increase power surge capacity for ventilation in the event of heat waves is as important as the availability of rapid response medical teams for the medical emergencies that occur dur- ing heat waves. Another example is the cooperation between the health sector and other departments, such as water, planning, public works, natural resources, meteorology, and environment, that will be required for conducting environmental risk assessments to monitor environmental health threats during floods. Certainly, enhancement of adaptive capacity in general, and particu- larly for human health, should be regarded as a component of broader sustainable development initiatives and programs. Underdevelopment greatly constrains adaptive capacity in every relevant dimension of vul- nerability. Improving adaptive capacity can strongly support multisec- toral development processes. Vulnerability assessments, data collection, and dialogue among stakeholders conducted to enhance adaptation are likely to generate useful information to aid the design of development programs. Although planning for adaptation will almost invariably be compli- cated by uncertainties and competing priorities and interests, manage- ment of climate risks can oftentimes benefit from existing decision sup- port tools and regulatory frameworks. Further, planned adaptations to climate risks are more likely to be implemented when developed as inte- gral parts or modifications of existing programs and strategies (Parry et al. 2007). Recommendations for Enhanced Adaptive Capacity in the Health Sector Health systems often lack the capacity to effectively implement climate change adaptation strategies. Many Arab countries have a substantial “ad- aptation deficit” and would benefit from exploring the following policy recommendations: Establish or strengthen information systems linking health and climate change–related outcomes Countries in the Arab region are encouraged to adopt the following strategies: • Develop climate-sensitive surveillance systems and evaluation tech- niques for health. This involves collecting information on frequency and magnitude of climate change–related health outcomes and linking them to environmental and meteorological indicators. Governments should invest in monitoring stations for ambient temperatures, humid- 332 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries ity, and precipitation, and for ambient air and water quality. These indicators are important for early warning systems. Consequently, this results in operationalizing an effective integrated health-environment management information system (see below). • Strengthen health-environment management information systems to enable evidence-based decision making for planning, designing, fi- nancing, and implementing adaptation programs to address the cli- mate change–related burden of disease. • Collect and analyze information on groups vulnerable to climate change. This includes identifying their specific vulnerabilities and characterizing risk exposures, describing their geographical locations and social and economic status, and evaluating their access to social protection services. Build capacity for climate resilience Building capacity for climate resilience requires that Arab countries es- tablish a foundation for strengthening expertise in climate change and public health–related disciplines and for providing services to support adaptation efforts in the health sector. Arab governments need to develop or strengthen a comprehensive framework for human resources for health, both technical and managerial, that integrates climate change into its core strategic mission. This effort can be achieved by incentivizing academic institutions to invest in climate change and health research and by building or expanding graduate training programs in climate change and health sciences. In addition, academic and research institutes can pro- vide technical assistance to health ministries, while civil society has a vested interest in raising public awareness about climate change, health, and household and community adaptive measures. Protect the poor and vulnerable through social services Countries in the Arab region are encouraged to adopt the following strategies: • Develop an emergency preparedness response plan. The plan would incorporate transition and recovery programs to deal with emergent crises, assist the poor and vulnerable to relocate away from high-risk areas, and provide basic needs such as adequate shelter, access to food, clothing, and medication for the poor and most vulnerable. • Strengthen health care service delivery by adopting the following: up- grading primary health care and emergency and ambulatory services Human Health and Well-Being Are Threatened by Climate Change 333 to cope with emergent health crises, ensuring equitable access (both physical and financial), and improving the quality of care. • Protect populations against catastrophic expenditure and health shocks by ramping up efforts for social protection in health, especially for the poor and vulnerable. This should avoid regressive redistribu- tion policies whereby the rich might benefit more than the poor in accessing health care services and in benefiting from reduced health care costs. Moreover, the expansion of health insurance, social assis- tance, and safety net programs are invaluable to protecting the poor and vulnerable. Create an institutional framework for decision making and formulating supportive policies Countries in the Arab region could reach sound health policies by imple- menting the following steps: • Develop a situational analysis to outline the current strategies adopted by the health care sector in dealing with emergency preparedness and in mapping health outcomes. • Develop a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses/limitations, opportunities, and threats) analysis to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportuni- ties, and threats in the health care sector. • Develop a stakeholder analysis that defines roles and responsibilities of each party (government, private sector, civil society organizations, the public, as well as others). • Develop or update climate change–specific clinical practice guidelines and standard operating procedures covering various levels of health care: primary, secondary, tertiary, and specialized care. • Establish a national climate change steering committee consisting of focal points representing concerned ministries and other stakeholders to initiate dialogue on climate change policies. The committee reports to the cabinet of ministers and coordinates with regional and interna- tional organizations such as UNDP, WHO, United Nations Environ- ment Programme, the World Bank, IPCC, and others. The above recommendations will serve to establish an effective institu- tional framework as a prerequisite for achieving the following core outcomes: • National health policies that address climate change from various as- pects, in line with results of the situational and SWOT analyses, to 334 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries reduce the burden of disease and deal with health outbreaks, impacts of tourism, extreme weather events, and natural disasters, to name a few. • A regional platform for dealing with cross-boundary climate change– related issues within the health sector with a threefold objective: (a) containing epidemics and infectious disease outbreaks, (b) facilitat- ing technical and operational cooperation, and (c) supporting a public health research and development agenda (activities launching a public health research forum; establishing an environment conducive to mul- tidisciplinary research). Secure financial resources to fund potential opportunities to alleviate the burden of climate-sensitive diseases Countries in the Arab region can employ a number of tools to analyze the gaps and deficiencies that may exist in the health care system, namely: • Health sector–specific public expenditure review to account for reve- nues and expenditures to inform budgetary decisions and sector-specific budget allocation with a climate change adaptation perspective. • Health system analysis focusing on arrangements for governance, or- ganization, financing, and delivery of health services, including both micro- and macroeconomic evaluation of climate change–related health interventions and services. This would inform dialogue on health sector reform. Upgrading of Public Health Systems Is Necessary Although climate health research is still nascent in the Arab region, pre- liminary evidence indicates that a number of health crises—ranging from the expansion of malaria, to growing malnutrition caused by food insecu- rity, to an increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters that jeop- ardize health—may be precipitated by climate change. These events will have a cumulative impact on the burden of disease in Arab countries. The impact will be especially acute in the Arab region, because of its largely arid landscape, limited water resources, large burden of disease, wide base of low- and no-income people, weak government institutions, and lack of other institutional resources or capacity to pursue adaptation measures. But climate change adaptation programs are particularly important because they correspond with the national development priorities of most Arab states and are in the interest of people in Arab countries, especially population groups most vulnerable to environmental and health crises. Human Health and Well-Being Are Threatened by Climate Change 335 Implementing the robust programs required to combat the impacts of climate change and secure the health of the people of Arab countries re- quires coordinated and principled planning and action from all sectors of society. Adaptation is a necessary pursuit for Arab governments and should be a priority issue that is tackled in partnership with international, regional, and national stakeholders. Evidence-based policy, both at the national and regional level, would provide the required tools to imple- ment adaptation strategies in Arab countries. Short-term action plans such as developing environmental health services related to water and air quality, data monitoring and surveillance, and strengthening health care systems are essential components of the adaptation framework. Long- term action plans include climate change and health-related research jointly planned and implemented by all Arab countries. Key Messages 1. According to WHO, climate change–related illnesses are increasing in the Arab region, specifically malaria, cardiovascular disease, and malnutrition- and waterborne-related illnesses (for example, diarrheal diseases). 2. Vulnerability to climate change–related illnesses in the Arab region is evident among a wide segment of the population. The most vulnerable are the internally displaced; those with low socioeconomic status; resi- dents of low-lying areas, camps and slums; and those who work in specific occupations, such as outdoor workers. 3. The health problems that are exacerbated by climate-related environ- mental changes are not properly mapped because of the dearth of cli- mate change and health research and the lack of evidence-based public health policies. Consequently, health care systems in most Arab coun- tries are currently unable to provide for the health needs of the Arab populations. 4. Climate change will necessitate the upgrading of the health care sys- tems (with resources and expertise) to provide health care services to the most vulnerable populations. 5. Sound adaptation strategies that include core elements, such as the proper assessment of public health vulnerabilities, the enhancement of health monitoring and surveillance systems, and the development of early warning systems and emergency preparedness plans to deal with health crises, should be implemented. 336 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries 6. Adaptation strategies should involve all key stakeholders (ministries, researchers in government and academic institutions, local communi- ties, NGOs, development partners, and the private sector) in a strong regional cooperation to prevent and deal with cross-boundary health crises. 7. The promotion and funding of interdisciplinary research on climate- related priority health outcomes and the strengthening of environ- mental health services related to water and air quality are essential tools in combating the health effects of climate change. Notes 1. According to the WHO classification, the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) comprises 22 economies (19 Arab economies and 3 non-Arab econo- mies). The Arab economies in EMR include Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, So- malia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, the West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen—excluding Algeria, the Comoros, and Mauritania. 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CHAPTER 9 Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience Climate change affects people in Arab countries and across the world. Least developed countries (LDCs) and poor people and communities are the most vulnerable because they often live in exposed locations, depend on natural resources, and have limited adaptive capacity. As this report demonstrates, increasing climate resilience requires a diverse set of policy actions aimed at different time horizons and at different actors, including all levels of government, the private sector, civil society, and households. A national climate change strategy, a National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), and national communication are not enough. To be effective, adaptation strategies need to be supported by strong domestic policies, legislation, and action plans. It is also essential to mainstream climate change adaptation plans into existing public financial manage- ment systems and national policies, plans, and programs—in particular those related to climate-sensitive economic sectors such as agriculture, health, tourism, and water. Most actions aimed at increasing climate re- silience will also have broader local development benefits by, for example, contributing to improved environmental governance and facilitating so- cial inclusion and sustainable growth. Even in the absence of extreme events and other climate variability, these actions are likely to present wins for Arab leaders. Taking an integrated approach to climate change adaptation requires strong political leadership. Although Arab leaders are already responding to the social and economic impacts of climate change, continued and ad- ditional action is essential. Climate change has considerable momentum, and without sustained commitment from Arab leaders, economic, human, and social development will be adversely affected for decades to come. Photograph by Dorte Verner 347 348 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries This report is intended as a resource to begin to assess climate risks, opportunities, and actions at a regional level. The information high- lighted here explains the potential impacts of climate change in key sec- tors, as well as in urban and rural settings, and then goes on to discuss possible policy options to reduce climate risk and better adapt to climate variability and change. This chapter attempts to provide guidance to pol- icy makers in Arab countries on how best to move forward on this agenda at a country level. It does this in two ways. First, it provides a framework for moving forward by revisiting the Framework for Action on Climate Change Adaptation (Adaptation Pyramid), presented in chapter 1. Sec- ond, it puts forward a typology of policy approaches that are relevant to the region to help decision makers formulate effective policy responses. These approaches include (a) the provision of reliable and accessible data, (b) the provision of human and technical resources and services, (c) the provision of social protection for the poor and most vulnerable, (d) the development of a supportive policy and institutional framework, and (e) the development of the capacity to generate and manage revenue and to analyze financial needs and opportunities associated with adaptation. Fi- nally, a policy matrix outlines key policy recommendations covered in each of the chapters. Adaptation Is an Integrated Part of Public Sector Management for Sustainable Development The prospect of climate change adds another element to be integrated into national planning. Government, with assistance from the private sec- tor and civil society, can ensure that a country’s development policies, strategies, and action plans build resilience to a changing climate. Adaptation is a long-term, dynamic, and iterative process that takes place over decades. Decisions will have to be made despite uncertainty about how both society and climate will change, and adaptation strategies and activities must be revised as new information becomes available. Al- though many standard decision-making methodologies are appropriate, alternative, robust methods for selecting priorities within an adaptive management framework will be more effective. The Adaptation Pyramid provides a framework to assist stakeholders in Arab countries to integrate risks and opportunities into development activities (see chapter 1, figure 1.4). It is based on an adaptive manage- ment approach but also highlights the importance of leadership and po- litical commitment, without which adaptation efforts are unlikely to achieve what is necessary to minimize the impacts of climate change. Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 349 Assess Climate Risk Impacts and Opportunities In this first step, a wide range of analyses could be used.1 All rely on access to climate and socioeconomic data to provide information on climate im- pacts, including on vulnerable groups, regions, and sectors. To help un- derstand the risks and impacts, data are needed on current climate vari- ability and change as well as projections and uncertainty about the future climate. Similarly, information on past adaptation actions and on coping strategies needs to be gathered and evaluated in light of the changing climate. These analyses will have to be undertaken at national and local levels and consider different contexts, including direct impacts and the indirect effects, for example, of climate-induced rural-to-urban migration (box 9.1). Prioritize Options The second step is to identify and prioritize adaptation options within the context of national, regional, and local priorities and goals, particularly with financial and capacity constraints in mind. Expectations of climate BOX 9.1 Impacts of Climate-Induced Rural-to-Urban Migration on Water Supply Accelerating rural-to-urban migration, due in part to the difficulty in maintaining viable agriculture in a changing climate, is increas- ing water stress in some regions and is posing challenges to water supplies and the provision of water services. For example, in Beirut, where half the Lebanese population lives, water shortages are very frequent because local supplies are incapable of meeting the rising demand. Lacking access to adequate water services, people often illegally tap and deplete shallow aquifers, resulting in seawater intrusion. In an attempt to reduce pressure on heavily populated Cairo, the government has encouraged urban development in desert areas, which has presented serious challenges to the popula- tion in procuring water supplies over large distances. In Jordan, the population is increasingly concentrated in the highlands, several hundred meters above most prospective water resources. Source: Authors’ compilation. Note: See chapter 3. 350 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries change make it more important to consider longer-term consequences of decisions, because short-term responses may miss more efficient adapta- tion options or even lead to maladaptive outcomes, such as the further development of highly vulnerable locations. The prioritization of adapta- tion responses requires an understanding of the links among projected climate impacts, associated socioeconomic impacts, and adaptation re- sponses. One technique for such prioritization could include landscape mapping. For example, it may be possible to map where increasing rainfall or aridity will affect current cropping and land-use systems and to similarly map where options exist to move to more drought-hardy, tree-based oil, fruit, and forage systems when increasing aridity makes traditional cereal crops no longer viable. Another possible approach to prioritizing options is robust decision making (RDM) (box 9.2), which seeks to identify choices that provide acceptable outcomes under many future scenarios. Implement Responses in Sectors and Regions Adaptive responses will often be somewhat at odds with immediate local priorities, and thus the third step of implementing responses needs coop- eration and understanding at the national, sectoral, and regional or local levels (often jointly). At the national level, adaptation needs to be integrated into national policies, plans, and programs and financial management sys- tems. This integration includes five-year plans prepared in a number of Arab countries. Moreover, it includes sustainable development and poverty reduction strategies and plans; policies, regulations, and legislation; invest- ment programs; and the budget. In addition, national adaptation strategies can help mainstream adaptation into other national policies as well as im- plement it at the sectoral and local levels. This implementation could in- volve the formation of an interministerial committee at various levels with the participation of the private sector, academia, and civil society. Monitor Outcomes The fourth step is to monitor outcomes to ensure that adaptation-related strategies and activities have the intended adaptation outcomes and ben- efits. Comprehensive qualitative and quantitative indicators can help project proponents recognize strengths and weaknesses of various initia- tives and adjust activities to best meet current and future needs. The monitoring framework should explicitly consider the effects of future cli- mate change, particularly for projects with a long time horizon. This process is iterative—hence the next step will be to reassess activi- ties while taking into account new and available information, such as fu- ture climate change or the effectiveness of previously applied solutions. Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 351 BOX 9.2 Robust Decision Making and the Transport Sector Decision making throughout both the pub- design strategies), (b) multiple scenarios of lic and private sectors has been dominated future developments that might affect the by the “predict and act” approach. Many effectiveness of the options, and (c) meth- approaches and methods exist, but the ods, often computer models, to evaluate essential elements are to develop a model the effectiveness of each option under each to predict future conditions, apply some of the scenarios. However, the evaluations form of optimization technique to select do not need to be precise enough to seek the “best” option, and then act on that deci- optimal solutions because they are seeking sion. However, in many situations, such those that are “robust,” that is, they produce a wide range of possible futures exists acceptable results under most scenarios and that the “predict and act” approach is not only rarely produce unacceptable results. effective. Once an option considered robust by all Analyzing options for transport and stakeholders has been identified, it can be related infrastructure is one such case. The implemented and monitored with the RDM effectiveness of a particular design depends process repeated regularly, leading to adap- on many other decisions outside the con- tive adjustments of the policy. The goal of trol of the planners. For example, land-use RDM is to identify a strategy that “would and settlement changes are decided on have been chosen with perfect predictive by the millions of users of the transport foresight” (Popper, Lempert, and Banks system as they cope with its strengths 2005). RDM reframes the question “What and weaknesses. Climate change adds yet will the long-term future bring?” into “How another level of uncertainty to transport can we choose actions today that will be planning with its widely different scenarios consistent with our long-term interests?” of the effectiveness of mitigation and the (Lempert, Popper, and Bankes 2003). uncertainties of the climate projections. RDM is being applied in transport Transportation and infrastructure cannot planning in some countries, such as the adapt incrementally to climatic changes as PTOLEMY (Planning, Transport, and the investments are capital intensive and Land Use for the Middle East Economy) require long lead times. To extract the best project (Dewar and Wachs 2008; Marchau, value out of the lifetime of an investment, Walker, and van Wee 2010). Given RDM’s planners should choose a robust strategy ability to alleviate the need for decision that will not require expensive adaptation makers to correctly predict the future before later on. making a major investment, planners in the In robust decision making (RDM), plan- Arab countries should consider employing ners and stakeholders identify (a) a wide RDM tools to help guide the formulation of range of options (such as specific transport transportation and infrastructure strategy. Sources: Authors’ compilation based on Dewar and Wachs 2008; Lempert, Popper, and Bankes 2003; Marchau, Walker, and van Wee 2010; and Popper, Lempert, and Bankes 2005. 352 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Leadership Is Central for Successful Adaptation Effective climate change adaptation will not occur without strong leader- ship. International experience shows that the lead needs to be taken at the national level by a prominent ministry or senior government champion, such as the prime minister, minister of planning or economy, or state planning commission. This champion will also require the support of a strong team composed of representatives of relevant ministries, gover- norates, local authorities and institutions, the private sector, academia, civil society organizations, and ideally opposition parties to ensure conti- nuity as a government changes. Clearly, this leadership approach should be adapted to the context of individual Arab countries and their circum- stances. Leaders are needed at other levels of government and within civil society and private sector organizations. Leaders from all sectors need support through access to information and educational opportunities and must be treated as legitimate agents in decision-making processes. For example, in 2009, the Republic of Yemen created an interministerial panel for climate change adaptation chaired by the deputy prime minis- ter, with ministers from 13 key ministries and other relevant actors in- cluded. Finally, the leadership must interact with other states with regard to intergovernmental issues (for example, riparian states on water flow of the Nile, Euphrates, Khabur, and other rivers). Policy Options Are Available to Support Climate Change Adaptation This report focuses primarily on assessing climate risk impacts and op- portunities and establishes a framework for adaptation decision making. The remaining sections of this chapter focus on the range of policy inter- ventions that are needed to increase climate resilience. The policy op- tions addressed aim to • Facilitate the development of publicly accessible and reliable informa- tion and analyses related to adaptation • Support the development of human, technical, and other resources and services to support adaptation • Provide social protection and other measures to ensure that the poor and the most vulnerable are climate resilient • Develop a supporting policy and institutional framework for adaptation Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 353 • Build capacity to generate and manage revenue and to analyze finan- cial needs and opportunities associated with adaptation The next sections provide further guidance on each of these policy ap- proaches to support adaptation decision making for policy makers. Each section emphasizes pertinent aspects for the Arab region in particular and draws from the analysis of impacts, risks, and opportunities in earlier chapters to the next level. Table 9.4 provides additional details for the implementation of these policy options in key economic sectors and areas addressed in this report. 1. Facilitate the Development of Publicly Accessible and Reliable Information and Analyses Related to Adaptation Improve Access to Climatological Data Access to quality weather and climate data is essential for policy makers. Without reliable data on temperature and precipitation levels, it is difficult to assess the current climate and make reliable weather forecasts and cli- mate predictions that allow for the design of effective policies, the imple- mentation of early warning systems, and the adaptation of key sectors on which the local and national economy depend. As indicated in chapter 2, climate station data across the Arab region is very limited compared to most other parts of the world and what data exists are often neither digitized nor publicly available. For historical reasons, a reasonable number of stations exist along the Nile and the coast of the Mediterranean Sea, but further inland coverage is very sparse. Conflict in parts of the region disrupts both the collection and sharing of data. In many areas, additional data are being gathered by various agencies but are not entered into more widely available meteorological databases. Furthermore the Arab region has not been ad- dressed as a discrete region in climate change research assessments, such as in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. Typically, in- formation must be inferred from analyses carried out in other regions. In the short and medium term, the collection and monitoring of cli- mate data could be improved by expanding the number of weather sta- tions and by collaborating with other countries in the region to improve the coverage and comparability of data. This effort should be combined with a push to link climate data to impact analysis by making climate data available to policy makers and researchers. Some efforts in this direction have already started. For example, Algeria, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Tunisia are part of the European Climate Assessment and Dataset 354 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE 9.1 Data Needs for Effective Adaptation Decision Making Sector Types of data needed Key challenges Policy options Climatological • Temperature • Data often under governance of the • Charge the civil authority with making • Precipitation Ministry of Defense or other climate data available ministries, limiting data • Expand data rescue and the number • Air pressure • Insufficient data of weather stations • Humidity • Not linked to impact analysis • Ensure that data are readily available • Wind to policy makers and researchers for • Radiation analysis Food security • Production levels and yields for • Data to advise on reducing • Identify national and regional partners indicator crops vulnerability for data collection and dissemination • Models of how food supply chains • A cross-sectoral issue, not the sole • Link findings to early warning systems operate and how they will be mandate of ministries of agriculture affected by climate change • Imports and exports of key crops and food storage • Operation of safety net Gender • Data disaggregated by sex, age, and • Data is not always disaggregated by • Adjust data collection systems and location sex and age sets to include information on time • Local knowledge and practices, for • When it is, it is not always analyzed use and division of labor example, on local water from a gender perspective or • Complement with qualitative surveys management systems publicly available • Invest in analysis of existing data Health • Occurrence and magnitude of • Insufficient data • Develop climate-sensitive surveillance climate change–related health • Insufficient linking of climate and systems and evaluation techniques for outcomes, linking those to health data health environmental and meteorological • Strengthen health management • Lack of data information systems for indicators information systems monitoring climate and health trends • Collect and analyze information on • Inadequate tracking of vulnerable groups vulnerable to climate change groups Urban • Geographic location exposure (river, • Data is sparse and often not • Systematically collect urban data and livelihoods coast) compiled and analyzed in a holistic link with climate change • Population: absolute and trends way • Make information available to all, • Risk zones: unstable slopes, low-lying including to local-level authorities areas, areas of high density • Governance structure • Building codes and enforcement • Economic activities and built environments Water • Water availability, salinity, and quality • Limited capacity to monitor long- • Promote regional cooperation and • River runoff term trends in hydrometeorological sharing of data and good practices in data and regional climate change data collection and dissemination, • Groundwater levels modeling capacity long-term monitoring, regional water • Current and future water modeling, and economic and policy • Limited understanding of the consumption analysis impacts of policy responses on • Impacts of various policy measures human behaviors on water supply and demand Source: Authors’ compilation. Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 355 (ECA&D). This project, which aims to combine collation of a daily series of observations at meteorological stations, quality control, analysis of ex- tremes, and dissemination of both the daily data and the analysis results, is gradually being extended across the Middle East and North Africa. Several actions can enhance the accessibility of data including digitiz- ing data collected in the past and stored in formats that can be damaged or difficult to access, and having civil authority take responsibility for sharing data with users when meteorological services are under the gov- ernance of, for example, the ministry of defense. Many countries have websites with such data for public use. In some countries, access to the most current meteorological data may need to be restricted, but it is im- portant that older data (for example, one month or one year) at daily or subdaily temporal resolution should eventually be made publicly avail- able. Ideally, compilation of the information on the availability, condi- tions for use, and procedures to access data should be provided and regu- larly updated. Improve Information on Trends in Water Availability As highlighted in chapter 3, water is scarce in the majority of the Arab countries. All but six Arab countries (the Comoros, Iraq, Lebanon, Soma- lia, Sudan, and Syria) suffer from water scarcity, which is defined as less than 1,000 cubic meters of water per person per year. Information on current and future water availability and quality is therefore critical for designing adaptation responses, and requires information on river runoff, groundwater levels, and water quality, including salinity. In many parts of the Arab region, coverage of these data is poor and will need to be up- graded. Capacity is also required to monitor long-term trends in hydro- meteorological data, link them with the climate data, and develop re- gional climate change models. Box 9.3 provides examples from Arab countries of effective water data collection, monitoring, and modeling. Link Climate Data with Socioeconomic and Typological Data Sets Data on climate variability and change and water availability will need to be complemented with socioeconomic data such as population growth. The data types needed for effective policy making are household data, census data, and other economic data including labor market and produc- tion data. In national, sectoral, and local data collection, it is important that social and economic information is collected in a disaggregated for- mat to reflect location, gender, age, and socioeconomic status as these factors greatly affect exposure and ability to cope with climate risks. Ide- ally, microdata series would continue to be compiled so that development 356 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 9.3 Water Data Collection, Modeling, and Monitoring in Arab Countries The Nile Forecast Center (NFC) provides hydrometeorological forecasting, monitoring, and simulation services to planning units in the government. The NFC is made of several units responsible for compiling remotely sensed and in situ data and has capacity in hydrological and water resources management modeling. One of the NFC’s central units is the Nile Basin Hydrometeorologi- cal Information System, which supports management of the Nile River (http://emwis.mwri.gov.eg/recersh%20%20and%20devolp ment%20-%20other-1%20-Nile%20Forecast%20Center.htm). Morocco’s IMPETUS climate monitoring network is an ini- tiative by the German government to support management of water resources in semiarid areas in West Africa. A component of IMPETUS is a real-time network of meteorological stations in the Drâa Valley in Morocco. The network monitors several mete- orological variables in the valley including precipitation, tempera- ture, humidity, wind speed and direction, and soil moisture and humidity. The data is primarily used for climate modeling but is also made accessible to regional and local authorities (http://www. impetus.uni-koeln.de/en/morocco/). Source: Authors’ compilation. over time can be tracked closely. Other data needs identified in this report are presented in table 9.1. In some economic sectors, data are currently not linked with climate or other relevant data. For example, most national health surveillance systems engage in data collection related to communicable and noncom- municable diseases without linking to environmental or other indicators. By linking this data, as has been done in Kuwait, Oman, and the West Bank and Gaza (WHO EMRO 2009), policy makers can obtain a more comprehensive picture of climate risks. The location, such as urban and rural, is also important in a changing climate. It is anticipated that more than 75 percent of the total population will live in urban areas by 2050. Most of these urban areas and conglom- erations are on the coasts of Arab countries. Climate-related impacts and disasters can be extremely damaging in urban areas. For effective adapta- Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 357 tion planning, data should be linked using geographic information system (GIS) technology to track indicators such as geographical location and exposure (for example, proximity to rivers or coasts) as well as informa- tion on current and anticipated future population size, distribution, and physical expansion of urban areas. Certain zones within urban areas such as unstable slopes, low-lying areas, or areas of particularly high density will be particularly vulnerable and should be carefully mapped. It will also be important to have information on the potential ability of an urban area to respond and cope with extreme weather events, which will depend on governance structures, building codes and their enforcement, wealth, economic activities, and built environments. In rural areas, it is important to collect data on changes in agricultural production levels and yields for indicator crops, that is, examples from forage, vegetables, grains, and livestock categories. These data will differ among Arab countries, reflecting the varying agricultural production sys- tem in, for example, the Gulf States (alfalfa, tomatoes, goats, and soft wheat); Egypt (berseem, tomatoes, goats, and soft wheat); and Jordan (kochia, tomatoes, sheep, and soft wheat). It will also be important to understand the main food supply chains, how they operate, and how they will be affected by climate change. Raise Awareness Finally, data collection and analysis are an important step, but equally important are the mechanisms for disseminating this data so as to raise awareness, stimulate behavioral shifts in the population, and act or adapt as a result of the information. For example, awareness campaigns about climate-induced water scarcity may reduce household water consump- tion, an adaptive outcome. There are many aspects to raising awareness, including the language and terms that are used to facilitate understand- ing. For example, cities, local governments, and universities can employ GIS technology to develop visualizations (often maps) of vulnerabilities and risks. Government, in particular, can play an important role in raising aware- ness and facilitating better understanding of the risks of climate change and its impacts. It can also encourage other stakeholder groups (such as the private sector and community leaders) to play a more active role in this regard. In particular, local organizations, opinion leaders, and educa- tors can play critical roles in campaigns to raise awareness as well as in mainstreaming climate change into national education programs. Busi- nesses will also have access to networks important in raising awareness. These awareness campaigns need to consider factors constraining wom- 358 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries en’s access to information and should target campaigns accordingly. In this regard, female community leaders have a critical role to play in rais- ing awareness. 2. Provide Human and Technical Resources and Services to Support Adaptation Specialized human and technical resources are required to analyze, iden- tify, and implement adaptive responses. Such resources can be developed through education and training, research and development, and technical improvements. Enhance Education and Training The need to develop new skills, knowledge, and expertise related to cli- mate change adaptation can be met through building and expanding training, including graduate programs related to climate change and key sectors such as agriculture, health, and water. Moreover, as highlighted in chapter 2, specific training on climatology is important because a wealth of satellite information is available, but it is often not being used effec- tively by local institutions. Training can also be targeted to particular areas that are subject to high climate risk. For example, the Amman Green Growth Program pro- vided training on climate change and climate change adaptation options at the urban level in Amman, Jordan. In particularly high-risk urban and rural areas, it may be useful to initially train local officials and planning and emergency management teams on hydrometeorological disaster management, such as how to respond to floods, landslides, drought, and heat waves. These individuals can then carry out additional training of the local population to strengthen responses to these high-risk situations. Adaptation responses can also include specialized training programs for professionals engaged in particular sectors. For example, training for water utility employees to enhance water demand management through market-based instruments such as water pricing and metering of water usage would be a useful adaptation response but will also result in broader development benefits since the region is already water scarce. In many Arab countries, rural areas are currently experiencing an out-migration of men because of climate change. For women to cope with the impacts of out-migration and be involved in decisions affecting their lives, including decisions related to climate change adaptation, special training for women Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 359 in community and political participation skills, business development, general literacy, and education and extension services is required. Encourage Research and Development Research and development are critical to enhance understanding of cur- rent and future climate change impacts and develop new and appropriate technological responses. Key research often excludes climate-related fac- tors. For example, studies between 1990 and 2010 found a lack of evidence-based research directly exploring the relationship between cli- mate change and health (Habib, El Zein, and Ghanawi 2010). The avail- able studies were geographically limited to Egypt, Lebanon, Sudan, and countries in the Gulf (Habib, El Zein, and Ghanawi 2010). There is a need to strengthen research in areas where climate change and key issues such as agriculture, gender, health, and urban and rural livelihoods inter- sect; such work could be carried out with existing institutions as well as new institutes or centers of excellence. For example, the United Arab Emirates’ Masdar Institute of Science and Technology and King Abdul- lah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia undertake re- search in local meteorology, climate projections, agricultural production, drought-resistant crops, and local methods in water reuse including aqui- fer recharge and desalination. Enhance Technological Resources Shifting to new technologies and using existing technologies more ef- fectively could also be a mechanism to build resilience to climate change impacts. Governments have an important role to play in facilitating pro- motion of and access to technologies that help people to adapt to climate risks. In water-stressed Arab countries, governments play a critical role in promoting technologies that can enhance water supply and decrease wa- ter demand. Promoting technology development is best accomplished through some combination of policy reforms that change incentives for private investment in new technology for greater climate resilience and address key market failures, combined with public financial interventions and investments (table 9.2). In terms of water supply, new and improved technology could be used for reducing water network leakage from pipe systems and to improve storage and conveyance capacity. Equally impor- tant, water demand could be reduced through, for example, drip irriga- tion and better metering. Desalination, an important current technology 360 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE 9.2 Technology Transfer Prospects in Agriculture and Water Sectors in the Arab Countries Integrated policy objectives Main benefits Available technology and R&D Identified barriers • Increase agricultural • Reduce water stress, • Reduce water losses and • Low technological input and productivity and efficient water desalination needs, and improve productivity through low grid expansion in remote use through technological groundwater overexploitation drip, sprinkler, and bubbler areas approaches to adaptation in • Increase productivity and irrigation systems • Investment needs for small the agricultural sector available water • Provide affordable micro- projects • Reduce vulnerability to rainfall irrigation technology systems • Cross-subsidized tariff favoring variability • Implement fog harvesting like irrigation water • Increase food security that in the Republic of Yemen • Need for demand management • Decrease land abandonment (26 small standard fog programs to drive technological • Reduce food costs collectors) change and promote • Improve livestock • Improve weather information, intersector water transfers management and positive covered agriculture, • Need for water storage externalities in health alternative seeds, and saline • No consideration of water water research footprint in trade and water added-value • Promote investment and • Increase available water in • Natural wastewater treatment • Water supply–driven policy and encourage research networks remote areas and reduce systems for rural and isolated no integrated management of to increase wastewater water stress in urban and rural areas such as Gaza, Jordan, hydrological cycle treatment in urban areas for areas where climate change is and Tunisia (national program • Middle Eastern and Northern agricultural water use and already reducing water since 1980s) have extended African countries avoid natural wastewater systems for availability experience and technology intersector water transfers remote and isolated human • Reduce land and water for mechanical wastewater (farmer lobbies) settlements pollution and reuse in agricultural • Low sewerage networks in • Develop decentralized systems remote (and some urban) areas systems to allow for multiple • Religious beliefs against water secondary benefits (artificial reuse wetlands, lagoons, and land • High quality standards recovery) • No storage facilities • Promote technology transfer of • Increase the energy supply in • The Susiya and Community, • Subsidized oil consumption rural renewable energy remote areas Energy, and Technology and direct subsidies in energy- electrification (RREE) systems, • Increase baseload stability (COMET) project (West Bank intensive sectors integrating regional markets • Reduce carbon footprint and and Gaza) • Low private sector involvement and the private sector slow the rate of energy • Wind and solar projects in the in RREE projects especially for large desalination intensity Middle East and North Africa • Low participation in clean plants and off-grid • Allow for agricultural irrigation • Concentrating solar power development mechanism electrification and food conservation and desalination of Ain Beni projects technologies Mathar (Morocco) • No integration of regional • Several solar- and wind- markets powered plants for seawater • No demand management and brackish water in Algeria, tariffs for end consumers Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia • Promote autonomous • Potable water from brackish • Autonomous RREE • Low production and expensive renewable-energy desalination water and polluted sources desalination components (0.1–20 m³/day systems to improve water • Less investment in centralized • Solar stills (Yemen, Rep.), RSD and US$5–10/m3) shortages in rural and isolated grids (Egypt), MHE (Saudi Arabia), • No local industries and need to communities • Simple construction and membrane and multiple- provide training maintenance effect distillation (pilots) • Scarce cooperation in research • Abundant solar and wind • PV-RO in Ksar Ghiléne (Tunisia) and development, local sources and Morocco (Al Haouz, components, and patent • Increase energy supply Essaouira, and Tiznit) transfer • International cooperation projects with scarce continuity and positive externalities Source: Authors’ compilation based on Padrón Fumero 2011. Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 361 for enhancing water supply, can result in significant local environmental impacts, including emissions to both air and water that affect human health, marine environments, and potentially economic activities such as local fisheries. Developing new desalination technologies, which reduce both air emissions and brine discharge, could help minimize these im- pacts and facilitate adaptation responses. New types of food storage and food transport systems to ensure food security and improve transport of agricultural goods to market are also important. These technologies can be locally derived through processes of research and development or made accessible through technology transfer. Often, however, barriers to appropriate technology development, transfer, and use must be over- come. These barriers relate to inadequate information and decision- support tools used to quantify and qualify the merits of various low- carbon or climate-resilient technologies and related investments, as well as limited local human and technical skills and the need for appropriate training. These can be overcome with approaches to enhance coordina- tion and information sharing among governments, the private sector, and local people and through revision and clarification of laws related to en- vironmental technology and local training and incentive programs 3. Build Climate Resilience of the Poor and Vulnerable through Social Protection and Other Measures As highlighted in chapter 1, vulnerability to climate change largely de- pends on two things: (a) the scale of climate change impacts and (b) hu- man resilience, which is determined by factors such as an individual’s age, gender, or health status; a household’s asset base; and one’s degree of integration with the market economy. Investment in social safety nets, public services such as water supply and wastewater treatment, and hous- ing and infrastructure in at-risk areas make poor people more resilient to a changing climate. Because these same instruments facilitate economic and social inclusion, there are also clear development benefits in investing in these measures. Measures to ensure social protection can include insurance schemes, pensions, access to credit, cash transfer programs, and relocation pro- grams. Additionally it is important to ensure that the poor can meet their basic needs and that there are measures in place to guarantee access to affordable health care and education. In rural areas currently suffering from declining agricultural yields and the out-migration of men, social protection is particularly critical for women, the elderly, and children left behind. Such protections can take the form of rural pension schemes or conditional cash transfer programs similar to Bolsa Família in Brazil. Other assistance to enhance productiv- 362 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries ity can include providing access to credit or markets for agricultural and other rural produce to enhance income despite declining agricultural productivity because of climate change. In urban areas, social services can include the provision of affordable housing away from zones at risk of climate impacts such as floods or drought. Additionally, the poor and other groups most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change will require additional measures to increase resilience such as the affordable provision of basic services such as energy (essential for heating and cooling in a variable climate), water, and public transport. The poor and most vulnerable are particularly in need of assistance when an extreme weather event or other climate change–related crisis hits. Reducing vulnerability to climate impacts for the poorest should therefore be integrated into emergency planning and programs. This planning could include the provision of basic needs, including adequate shelter and access to food, water, and clothing. At the local level, the livelihoods and assets of individuals and institu- tions can be protected through various forms of insurance such as life insur- ance, infrastructure insurance, or weather-based index insurance (box 9.4). BOX 9.4 Weather-Based Index Insurance Index insurance represents an attractive alternative for managing weather and climate risk because it uses a weather index, such as rainfall, to determine payouts. With index insurance contracts, an insurance company does not need to visit the policyholder to determine premiums or assess damages. Instead, if the rainfall recorded by gauges is below an earlier, agreed-on threshold, the insurance pays out. Such a system significantly lowers transac- tion costs. Having insurance allows these policyholders to apply for bank loans and other types of credit previously unavailable to them. However, if index insurance is to contribute to development at meaningful scales, a number of challenges must be overcome, including enhanced capacity, establishment of enabling institu- tional, legal, and regulatory frameworks, and availability of data. Droughts, floods, and other extreme events often strip whole com- munities of their resources and belongings. Index insurance could enable poor people to access financial tools for development and properly prepare for and recover from climate disasters. Source: IRI 2007. Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 363 4. Develop a Supportive Policy and Institutional Framework for Adaptation A supportive policy and institutional framework at national, sectoral, and local levels is essential for effective climate change adaptation decision making. Basic conditions for effective development such as the rule of law, transparency and accountability, participatory decision-making structures, and reliable public service delivery that meets international quality standards are conducive to effective development and adaptation action. In addition, climate change adaptation requires new policies and structures and changes to existing policies. These requirements include climate change adaptation strategies and policies at all levels, the main- streaming of climate change considerations into existing policies, and the creation of systems for cooperative and coordinated decision making be- tween government departments and different levels of government and in cooperation with the private sector, civil society, and other states. A clear but coordinated governance structure is also essential to imple- ment climate change adaptation measures. This structure must promote strong degrees of national, regional, and international collaboration among different levels of government, different sectors, and the public, private, and not-for-profit sectors. Develop a National Adaptation Strategy These adaptation strategies should consider a multitude of factors, which could include food security, employment, health, livelihoods, and vulnerability. Adaptation strategies should also consider the need for accessible and reliable data, human and technical resources, social pro- tection, a supportive policy and institutional framework, and financing. Egypt’s national adaptation strategy provides a good practice example (box 9.5). Low-income countries such as Djibouti, Sudan, and the Republic of Yemen have produced NAPAs, which provide a process for least devel- oped countries (LDCs) to identify priority adaptation activities—those that respond to their urgent and immediate needs to adapt to climate change. See table 9.3 for sample projects. One aspect that does need strengthening in NAPAs is the gender di- mension. Indeed, although globally many NAPAs acknowledge that women are among the most vulnerable to immediate and longer-term climate change impacts, few link this information to broader social, eco- nomic, and political mechanisms of gender inequality or emphasize the importance of empowering women as critical stakeholders in adaptation (UNFPA and WEDO 2009). 364 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries BOX 9.5 Egypt’s National Adaptation Strategy Egypt’s national adaptation strategy primarily focuses on agricul- ture, water resources, and coastal areas. Agricultural recommenda- tions include changing crop varieties and cropping schedules, skip- ping irrigation at different growth stages, implementing changes in farm systems and fertilization practices, developing simple and low-cost technologies suitable for the local context, establishing a special adaptation fund for agriculture, improving scientific capac- ity, and increasing public awareness. It also addresses the adaptive capacity of rural communities through forms of social assistance and economic diversification. In terms of water, the national adaptation strategy recommends public awareness campaigns on water shortages or surpluses caused by climate change, the development of local area circula- tion models capable of assessing the impact of climate change on local and regional (Nile basin) water resources, increased capacity of researchers in all fields of climate change and its impact on water systems, and the exchange of data and information among Nile basin countries. The strategy also promotes integrated coastal management and recommends the creation of wetlands in low- lying lands, supportive protection structures (including dams), and natural sand duning systems; the management of coastal lakes; public and policy maker awareness; and use of aerial photographs and satellite images. Source: Agaiby 2011. Highlight the Importance of Agriculture and Water Considerations It is useful to have separate sections of national strategies or stand-alone policies related to agriculture and water, given their importance for well- being and income generation in the Arab countries, as discussed in earlier chapters of this report. From a process standpoint, an important mechanism to encourage a dialogue and coordinate a government response to reduce climate- induced risks could be a coordinated interministerial national policy or working group backed by specific expertise. The subject of such policies or working groups will clearly be state specific. In the highly urbanized Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 365 TABLE 9.3 Arab Least-Developed Countries Offer Top Two Priority Projects Project costs Country Project priority Project title Project sector Sector components (US$ thousands) Djibouti 1 Mitigating climate change–related risks Cross-sector Coastal ecosystem, water 1,000 for the production system of coastal resources, agriculture and areas through an integrated, adapted, livelihood diversification and participatory management involving grassroots organizations Djibouti 2 Promoting the fencing of forest areas Terrestrial Forest protection 294 in Day and Mabla coupled with the ecosystems introduction of improved stoves Sudan 1 Enhancing resilience to increasing Cross-sector Livestock, water 2,800 rainfall variability through rangeland harvesting, and disaster rehabilitation and water harvesting in management the Butana area of Gedarif State Sudan 2 Reducing the vulnerability of commu- Cross sector Vulnerability mitigation, 2,500 nities in drought-prone areas of South water harvesting, and Darfur State through improved water- reforestation harvesting practices Yemen, Rep. 1 Developing and implementing inte- Coastal and Marine ecosystems 3,200 grated coastal zone management marine ecosystems Yemen, Rep. 2 Water conservation through reuse of Water resources Water resources, 3,200 treated wastewater and gray water agriculture from mosques, and irrigation-saving techniques Source: Based on UNFCCC 2012. countries of the Gulf and Mashreq, the focus is primarily on food secu- rity. In other countries, concerns for employment, livelihoods, and water scarcity appear to be highest on the political agenda. Integrate Adaptation Consideration into Existing Policies, Plans, and Programs It is important to integrate or mainstream climate change into all major policies, plans, and programs. Climate, economic development, and so- cial development are interdependent—the way countries manage the economy and political and social institutions have critical impacts on cli- mate risks. The climate and the level of adaptation of current institutions and individuals to it, in turn, are vital for the performance of the economy and social well-being. Therefore mainstreaming climate change is critical to development planning and policy formulation. Climate mainstreaming is the processes by which climate consider- ations are brought to the attention of organizations and individuals in- volved in decision making on the economic, social, and physical develop- 366 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries ment of a country (at the national, subnational, or local levels) and the processes by which climate is considered in making those decisions. The process is based on an analysis of how climate change may affect a policy, plan, or program. This includes an analysis of the extent to which the activity under consideration could be vulnerable to risks aris- ing from climate variability and change; the extent to which climate change risks have been taken into consideration in the course of formu- lating the existing policy plan or program; the extent to which the activ- ity could lead to increased vulnerability, leading to maladaptation, or, conversely, miss important opportunities arising from climate change; and what amendments might be warranted to address climate risks and opportunities. It is particularly important to mainstream climate change adaptation considerations into vulnerable sectors in Arab countries, such as agricul- ture, health, trade, tourism, and water, at all levels. For example, climate change consideration will need to be incorporated into infrastructure de- velopment in both rural and urban settings, particularly in areas prone to flash floods, flood risks, or extreme weather events. In rural contexts, climate change considerations need to be incorpo- rated into existing land property rights and practices. In many Arab coun- tries, rural areas are experiencing climate-related migration particularly of men who have traditionally held inheritance and land rights. More equitable rights for women will help reduce both the vulnerability of women remaining in rural areas and their entire household. Governments Play a Key Role in Promoting Collaboration and Cooperation Within national governments, interministerial coordination is critical be- cause adaptation responses often require activities involving multiple ministries and sectors. Interministerial coordination can be achieved through interministerial committees that, for example, have climate change focal points in all relevant ministries. The private sector, aca- demia, and research institutes can also be integrated into these commit- tees as technical advisers. For example, Egypt established a national cli- mate change steering committee by prime ministerial decree in 2007. Coordination among different levels of government is also essential as climate change adaptation policies will ultimately be implemented by sec- toral authorities, local officials, and citizens themselves. For example, to create connections between the agriculture ministry and local farmers on climate risks and adaptation options, the government may be able to use existing farmers’ associations that link directly to ministries of agriculture and agricultural research and extension services. This process would en- Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 367 BOX 9.6 Coordination of Water Management in Morocco In Morocco, the reform of the water sector has led to significant changes since the introduction of the Water Code in 1995. Nine River Basin Organizations (and six delegations) have been cre- ated as nodal agencies for water administration at the regional level. These River Basin Organizations are legally and financially independent. They are financed through users’ fees and can lend money for different local investment programs in water. The Code also created the High Council for Water and Climate, an interministerial committee to reinforce horizontal and vertical coordination among the different actors in the water sector. Gath- ering different representatives from the public sector, as well as nongovernment stakeholders, this council is in charge of assessing the national strategy on climate change and its impact on water resources, the national hydrological plan, and integrated water resources planning. Source: OECD 2010. sure clear flows of knowledge to all areas from the top down and the bot- tom up, relying on existing institutional mechanisms. Box 9.6 provides an example. Regional and International Collaboration Is Also Essential for Climate Resilience The heterogeneity of the Arab countries provides multiple opportunities for beneficial climate-related regional collaboration. Arab countries will be best equipped to address climate change if they have strong collabora- tion on issues such as climate-related data sharing, crisis responses, and the management of, for example, disease outbreaks, migration, shared water resources, and strong trade relationships to address food security. Where knowledge, skills, or technology are lacking in one country, they often exist in other countries. Therefore collaboration with other Arab countries and regions, for example in health or management of shared water resources, could be particularly valuable. Arab countries could also consider establishing foundations or centers of excellence in climatology (for example, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia) or in climate change and public health– 368 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries related disciplines. Knowledge sharing can be promoted on a regional scale through staff exchanges and through enhanced regional and inter- national cooperation such as through the creation of an Arab knowledge network on climate change adaptation. Opportunities to engage with existing or new initiatives within inter- national bodies are key for improved policy making in Arab states. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is promoting a new large- scale initiative on climate services that could benefit from enhanced par- ticipation from Arab states. 5. Build Capacity to Generate and Manage Revenue and to Analyze Financial Needs and Opportunities Financial resources are essential for development and to effectively adapt to climate change. Arab countries will need to invest in capacity to gener- ate and manage climate change–related resources and to analyze their financial needs related to climate change. Ministries, particularly those concerned with agriculture, energy, tourism, transport, and water, will need to mainstream climate change into national budgets. Moreover, current and future climate change im- pacts need to be taken into account in planning and costing investments— particularly long-term investment. Financial resources for climate change will need to come from domestic and international sources. For govern- ments, national public expenditure reviews could be one tool to highlight current expenditures and hence better understand how these relate to budget estimates for climate proofing infrastructure. This information, in turn, will help governments understand what levels of additional revenues are needed to make up the shortfall and identify new revenue opportuni- ties, such as from payments for ecosystem services, removal of subsidies, or innovative tax mechanisms. At the local level, access to financial services can play a critical role in helping poor people widen their economic opportunities, increase their asset base, and diminish their vulnerability to external shocks such as cli- mate change. In rural areas, simple financial services—credit and sav- ing—can directly affect small producers’ productivity, asset formation, income, and food security. Payment for ecosystem services (PES) has significant potential to enhance rural livelihoods and agricultural yields, maintain and enhance ecosystem services (such as watersheds and biodi- versity), and develop long-term partnerships with the private sector. PES can contribute to disaster risk reduction, with the revenues generated serving as financial buffers for communities to climate-induced shocks. Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 369 Provided with financing opportunities and incentives, smallholders and rural communities can invest in preventing natural disasters by main- taining sand dunes, conserving wetlands, and foresting slopes as cost- effective measures, while at the same time protecting their own assets and livelihoods. Dependable revenue streams would allow them to invest in their crops and land, thus strengthening their businesses. Funding is now more accessible from an increasing list of international sources. Particularly important for adaptation are the UNFCCC Adapta- tion Fund, the UNFCCC and GEF-administered Least Developed Countries Fund and Special Climate Change Fund, the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (under the Climate Investment Funds managed by the multilateral development banks), and the many bilateral funding arrange- ments. The OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and De- velopment) has estimated that in 2010 about US$3.5 billion was provided by OECD members to support adaptation activities with another US$6 billion for “adaptation-related” activities. For a summary of op- tions available, see http://www.climatefinanceoptions.org. The World Bank is already providing funding to countries through ongoing technical assistance and lending operations and the Climate Investment Funds (specifically though the Strategic Climate Fund’s Pilot Program for Cli- mate Resilience). Applying Policy Recommendations to Address Key Climate Change Issues In conclusion, this report is intended as a resource for Arab policy makers to begin to assess climate risks, opportunities, and actions at a regional level. This final chapter aims to provide guidance to policy makers in Arab countries on how best to move forward on this agenda at a country level. It has done so in two ways: by (a) providing a Framework for Action on Climate Change Adaptation and (b) putting forward a typology of policy approaches that are relevant to the region, to help decision makers formulate effective policy responses. Finally, a policy matrix (see table 9.4) outlines key policy recommendations covered in each of the chapters for ease of reference. This chapter has also attempted to demonstrate that most of the ac- tions aimed at increasing climate resilience will also have broader local development benefits by, for example, contributing to improved environ- mental governance and facilitating social inclusion and sustainable growth. So even in the absence of extreme events and high climate vari- ability, they are likely to present double-wins for Arab leaders. 370 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE 9.4 A Policy Matrix for Arab Adaptation to Climate Change Collect information on climate change Provide human and technical resources and adaptation and make it available services to support adaptation Sector Climatology • Make climate data available at daily or • Build capacity to use regional climate data sub-daily temporal resolution information • Compile information on availability, • Enhance national and regional capacity to conditions for use, and procedures to make better use of existing international access data ground and satellite observation data • Rescue and digitize manually archived • Promote skills in using and developing climate meteorological data impacts and risks analyses • Extend the coverage of the observational • Establish regional/international centers of network to ensure a minimal station density excellence with staff exchange programs to to reflect spatial variability (also beneficial better share skills to weather forecasting and early warning systems) Disaster risk • Develop consistent approaches to risk • Training on climate change, natural hazards, management assessments at national and local levels and the adaptation and risk mitigation options • Perform more comprehensive, national at the national and local levels multi-risk assessment rather than single • Develop national strategies on integrating hazard, sector, and territory specific DRM in school curricula and public awareness assessments activities • Develop more policy-oriented scientific studies and research related to disaster risk management (DRM), environments, and ecosystems • Adopt common data standards and methodologies Water • Ensure regular, reliable data collection on • Encourage human and technical investments river flows, groundwater levels, water quality to promote supply and demand side (particularly salinity), climate-related impacts management in the water sector on water, and adaptation options • Support climate change and water scarcity • Develop capacity to monitor and model awareness-raising programs and campaigns long-term trends in hydrometeorological (to achieve both increased water efficiency data and to disseminate knowledge of climate risks • Develop regional climate impacts modeling to water availability) capacity • Support assessment and development of water storage and conveyance capacity • Invest in research and development of appropriate local methods in water reuse • Develop institutes for water quality protection Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 371 Provide assistance such as social Ensure a supportive policy and Build capacity to generate and protection for the poor and most institutional framework manage finance and analyze financial vulnerable needs and opportunities • Empower civil authority with • Enhance regional collaboration on • Include hydrometeorological data the responsibility of making early warming systems, including collection in the government’s budget, meteorological data available use and dissemination of existing including costs related to: for public use at minimal cost extended forecasts (available through • Data rescue (currently services are often under WMO, etc.) the governance of the Ministry of • Extending the number of weather • Engage with the WMO’s new large- stations Defense, etc.) scale initiative on climate services. • Establishing centers of excellence • Link climate data with socio- (This initiative depends on the economic data (including health active participation of the member • International and regional cooperation data) to obtain the information states and it can assist in developing • Build capacity and training needed to build resilience, capacities critically needed in the particularly as it relates to poor and Arab countries) vulnerable communities • Develop an emergency preparedness • Systematic integration of DRM • Capacity to estimate the costs, taking response plan to deal with emergent policies and legislation into public climate and hazard risk (including cost crises, assist the poor and vulnerable investments at national and and benefit analysis) into account to relocate away from high risk local levels, ensuring permanent • Capacity to mobilize the needed areas, and secure basic needs such emergency and response funds resources from the international as adequate shelter, access to food, financial instruments clothing, and drugs for the poor and most vulnerable • Give priority to assistance for the • Ensure institutions and policies at • Improve pricing of water as both a poor and vulnerable in water national, sectoral, and regional levels means of demand management and sensitive sectors and regions consider the impacts of climate a source of revenue while ensuring • Help the poor resettle away from change on water resources and affordable access for the poor areas at risk of flooding (e.g., wadis) infrastructure • Incorporate the costs of climate and/or severe drought • Encourage cooperation among change expenditures related to water • Help the poor acquire skills and different ministries (for example, and integrate water and climate livelihood options in economic agriculture, tourism, trade) on water considerations in public financial sectors less sensitive to water deficits conservation efforts management • Support efforts to place the water • Develop insurance programs for high scarcity and climate change risk areas and vulnerable communities government portfolios at the highest to encourage investment in climate levels (prime minister’s office) change risk. (insuring infrastructure and • Pursue cooperation with other Arab lives, especially related to flood risks) countries on water management and research and development • Make accountability and transparency high priorities in water management and service institutes (continued on next page) 372 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE 9.4 A Policy Matrix for Arab Adaptation to Climate Change (continued) Collect information on climate change Provide human and technical resources and adaptation and make it available services to support adaptation Sector Rural • Assess changes in agricultural production • Develop knowledge and skills related to levels/yields for indicator crops climate-resilient agricultural practices, such • Model the food supply chains, model how as growing salt-tolerant, heat-tolerant, and they operate, and how they will be impacted pest-resistant crop and livestock species, by climate change conservation agriculture; increasing irrigation efficiency; and using nonconventional water • Monitor state of water (groundwater and resources salinity levels), soil conditions (depth and carbon content), and agricultural activities • Develop human and technical resources to in “most at risk” agricultural zones (using optimize food chain systems, particularly in indicator areas of marginal lands, and rainfed transport and marketing; improve value-added areas from the four regions) developments; and establish cooperatives Urban • Improve linkages between meteorological • Improve training on climate change and data and information on urban conditions adaptation options in urban settings including: • For example: Amman Green Growth Program • Exposure (river, coast), population, growth Training on hydrometeorological disasters in size, physical expansion (direction and management (floods, landslides, drought, heat amount) wave, etc.) • Risk zones (unstable slopes, low-lying areas, areas of high density) • Spatial information on income levels, economic activities, and built environments • Governance structure • Building codes and enforcement Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 373 Provide assistance such as social Ensure a supportive policy and Build capacity to generate and protection for the poor and most institutional framework manage finance and analyze financial vulnerable needs and opportunities • Target food price controls/subsidies • Create a coordinated governance • Develop capacity to estimate the during price spikes and crop failures structure to implement climate financial risks for not applying climate to support the most vulnerable change adaptation measures at change adaptation and how to • Support access to markets for central and local levels across maximize risk management through agricultural and other rural produce ministries responsible for agriculture, available financial instruments water, and the economy • Enhance capacity to assess all • Support development of schools and training facilities to nurture both • Develop a coordinated national possibilities for meeting food demand basic academic and vocational skills policy, likely to be across ministries, while balancing economics with and provide necessary incentives to supporting food security and rural geopolitical risks ensure attendance livelihood developments, balancing risks with possibilities and mindful of water and energy security vulnerabilities • Create farmers’ associations that link directly to ministries of agriculture and agricultural research /extension services to ensure clear flow of knowledge to all areas from the top-down and bottom-up • Develop affordable housing away • Create a clear governance structure • Enhance capacity to estimate the costs from risk zones (flood zone, drought to implement climate change of taking climate risk into account areas) adaptation measures at central and in planning decisions, including the • Provide basic services for those in local levels projected costs of potential damages affordable housing from taking no action • Promote urban upgrading of self- • Enhance capacity to mobilize built areas the needed resources from the international financial instruments • Improve rural areas service delivery and give people choice • Ensure clear and equitable land tenure policy and regularize informal settlements in areas of low climate exposure (continued on next page) 374 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE 9.4 A Policy Matrix for Arab Adaptation to Climate Change (continued) Collect information on climate change Provide human and technical resources and adaptation and make it available services to support adaptation Sector Tourism • Enhance collection, accessibility, and • Promote technical improvements to enhance analysis of climate- and tourism-related data the resilience of sectors on which tourism including: depends, including water management, • Contribution of tourism to economy, protection of natural environments, zoning employment, and trade balance of land use for minimal exposure, disaster risk management, and evacuation plans • Types of tourism and their relative importance and main season; number of • Increase efforts to make new and existing tourists by category and country buildings able to withstand stronger weather impact • Vulnerability and risk assessment, and monitoring of ecosystems important to • Environmentally sensitive, low impact, coastal tourism: water resources, coastal and marine erosion control zones, ecosystems, biodiversity, coral reefs, • Public health management and easy access to and archeological and cultural sites information • Tourist-oriented weather forecasts (easy • Increased energy reliability through access to information and knowledge- diversification and shift to renewable (“green”) related to heat exposures and risk reduction) energy • Monitor the degradation of tourist sites • Enhance capacities through education and (ecosystems, heritage sites) awareness-raising, particularly among NGOs, government, business, and local communities • Develop alternatives to traditional tourism Ecosystem services • Collect systematic data on the state and • Enhance human, financial, and technical changes in biodiversity and ecosystems capacity to research, understand and • Improve data on the distribution and status incorporate role and values of biodiversity of ancestors of the crops, fruit trees, and and ecosystems in production systems livestock that are endemic to the Arab • Enhance skills and knowledge to conduct countries economic evaluation of ecosystem services • Improve valuation of services and goods to incorporate them in development provided by ecosystems and the changes or decision making trends for national accounting and decision- • Bring knowledge and good practices from making purposes other parts of the world into the Arab • Enhance data collection on the links countries and vice-versa, given the urgency of between functioning ecosystems and the need to adapt livelihood needs of poor and marginalised communities in different countries and ecosystems • Information on the need of ecosystem services (for example, water flow) for societies to help with allocation and trade- off decisions Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 375 Provide assistance such as social Ensure a supportive policy and Build capacity to generate and protection for the poor and most institutional framework manage finance and analyze financial vulnerable needs and opportunities • Diversification of income by • Develop an adaptation strategy for • Tap into unique sources of revenue developing alternative tourism the tourism sector and integrate it related to tourism and climate (for example, health-related tourism) into national and local strategies and resilience such as payment for • Develop social protection policies ecosystem services mechanisms and instruments to • Adapt tourist activities to changing enhance the resilience of the local climate and modify the tourist season actors in the tourism sector to accordingly face climate change risks, such as • Promote best practices in conditional cash transfers, temporary development and management employment programs, micro of tourist facilities (energy, water, insurance schemes waste, etc.) • The private actors: Renovate tourist facilities, create new services, improve marketing, develop new destinations, contribute to the national efforts to rationalize water and energy use • The public actors: Coordinate efforts; issue laws and regulations on hotel renovation and construction, urban and land planning, sustainability requirements on alternative tourism; and mobilize international resources • Improve access and rights to • Ensure ecosystem and biodiversity • Develop carbon and climate finance biodiversity and ecosystems, management are part of the national as part of an integrated sustainable especially in times of droughts, fires, development plans and sectoral land and water management system and as part of nomadic life strategies, especially for water and that helps in maintaining biodiversity • Improve sustainable management of water-based pollution management and ecosystem services and as an ecosystems to minimize degradation in inland and coastal areas adaptation option and thus the assets of the poorest • Assist in internalizing the costs of • Develop adaptation funding and and most vulnerable biodiversity and/or ecosystem service payments for environmental services • Promote alternative and loss/degradation that explicitly incorporate conservation diversification of livelihoods that are • Establish gene banks and “garden” and sustainable use of biodiversity at not ecosystem- and biodiversity- areas where ancestors of crops and the genetic, species, and ecosystem dependent, (for example, cultural livestock can be grown and managed levels tourism options, employment in as potential adaptation options small service/home industries) (continued on next page) 376 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries TABLE 9.4 A Policy Matrix for Arab Adaptation to Climate Change (continued) Collect information on climate change Provide human and technical resources and adaptation and make it available services to support adaptation Sector Gender • Ensure that current and future data • Address constraints to women’s and children’s collection is disaggregated by gender and access to information age and that presentation and analyses of • Analyze gender patterns in sources of these data use this disaggregation information to improve targeting of awareness • Analyze factors constraining women’s campaigns, particularly where illiteracy rates access to information and target campaigns are high accordingly • Increase rural and urban women’s skill- development and capacity-building opportunities • Simplify and disseminate information on land ownership laws • Promote and invest in innovative new areas of business in rural economies, particularly those that emphasize/improve opportunities for women Health • Establish and/or strengthen information • Strengthen expertise in climate change and systems linking health and climate change– public health and provide technical support to related outcomes promote adaptation • Develop climate-sensitive surveillance • Develop and strengthen a comprehensive systems and evaluation techniques for framework for human resources for health health; that is, occurrence and magnitude and climate change—both technical and of climate change–related health outcomes managerial linked to environmental and meteorological • Encourage academic institutions to invest in indicators climate change and health research and in the • Strengthen health-environment provision of technical assistance to ministries management information systems to of health enable evidence-based decision making • Build and/or expand training/graduate for planning, designing, financing, and programs in climate change and health implementing adaptation program to sciences address climate change–related burden of • Involve civil society organizations in raising disease public awareness on the health effects of • Collect and analyze information on groups climate change and on ways to adapt at the vulnerable to climate change. This includes household and community levels identifying their specific vulnerabilities and characterizing risk exposures; describing their geographical locations and social and economic status; and evaluating their access to social protection services Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 377 Provide assistance such as social Ensure a supportive policy and Build capacity to generate and protection for the poor and most institutional framework manage finance and analyze financial vulnerable needs and opportunities • Targeted social protection including • Reform property rights laws and • Conduct gender-responsive budgeting insurance schemes, rural pensions, practices related to land and property to ensure that adequate financial access to credit, and cash transfer that account for out-migration of resources are allocated to implement programs to take account of gender men gender mainstreaming and other related vulnerability and in particular • Create mechanisms to improve the proposed policies support female-headed households enforcement of land ownership laws • Reduce significance of marital status for legal status and land/property ownership • Improve existing land access programs, especially by increasing emphasis on gender issues in access to land • Support women’s collective schemes for securing land access rights • Protect the poor and vulnerable • Create an institutional framework for • Secure financial resources to fund through social services health related decision making that potential opportunities to alleviate the • Strengthen health care service considers climate change burden of climate sensitive diseases delivery by upgrading primary health • Develop/update climate change- • Health-sector specific public care, emergency, and ambulatory specific clinical practice guidelines expenditure review to account for services to cope with emergent and standard operating procedures revenues and expenditures to inform health crises; ensuring equitable covering different levels of health budgetary decisions and sector- access (both physical and financial); care: primary, secondary, tertiary, and specific budget allocation with a and improving the quality of care specialized climate change adaptation perspective • Protect populations against • Establish a national climate change • Health system analysis focusing catastrophic expenditures, and health and health steering committee on arrangements for governance, shocks through social protection consisting of focal points that organization, financing, and delivery for health, especially for the poor represent concerned ministries of health services, including both and vulnerable, through improving and other stakeholders to initiate micro- and macroeconomic evaluation targeting social spending using proxy dialogue on climate change policies of climate change–related health means testing • Establish a regional platform for interventions and services. This would • Expand health insurance, social dealing with cross-boundary climate inform dialogue on health sector assistance, and safety net programs change–related issues within the reform health sector with the objectives of : (1) containing epidemics and infectious disease outbreaks; (2) facilitating technical /operational cooperation; and (3) supporting public health research 378 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Note 1. For an overview of available tools to assist in climate risk analysis, see http:// climatechange.worldbank.org/climatechange/content/note-3-using- climate-risk-screening-tools-assess-climate-risks-development-projects. References Agaiby, Ezzat Lewis Hannalla. 2011. “Egypt’s Status towards Major Negotiable Issues in Climate Change.” PowerPoint presentation and speech, Climate Change Central Department and National Ozone Unit, Egyptian Environ- mental Affairs Agency, Cairo. 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Walker, and Bert P. van Wee. 2010. “Dy- namic Adaptive Transport Policies for Handling Deep Uncertainty.” Techno- logical Forecasting and Social Change 77 (6): 940–50. OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2010. Progress in Public Management in the Middle East and North Africa: Case Studies on Policy Reform. Paris: OECD. Padrón Fumero, Noemi. 2011. “A Regional Mitigation and Adaptation Approach to Climate Change: Technology Transfer and Water Management in the MENA Region.” Universidad de La Laguna, Tenerife, Canary Islands. http:// webpages.ull.es/users/npadron/. Popper, Steven W., Robert J. Lempert, and Steven C. Bankes. 2005. “Shaping the Future.” Scientific American 292 (4): 66–71. UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). 2012. Least Developed Countries Portal, NAPA Priorities Database. UNFCCC, Bonn, Germany. http://unfccc.int/cooperation_support/least_developed_ countries_portal/napa_priorities_database/items/4583.php. UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund) and WEDO (Women’s Environ- ment and Development Organization). 2009. “Climate Change Connections: Implement Policy Responses to Increase Climate Resilience 379 A Resources Kit on Climate, Population and Gender.” UNFPA, New York. http://egypt.unfpa.org/Images/Publication/2010_07/2c65caf3-4471-4d07- 9dd8-71a573d57e61.pdf WHO EMRO (World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office). 2009. “Epidemiological Situation: 2086 Data.” WHO EMRO, Cairo. Index Boxes, figures, maps, and tables are indicated by b, f, m, and t, following page numbers. A public sector management of, Abu Dhabi 28–33, 30f agricultural adaptation in, 180, 181b risk assessment and, 31, 349, 349b water storage capacity in, 134 in tourism sector, 257–67, 258–59b, Abu Dhabi Food Control Authority, 260–62t, 265t, 266b 181b in urban areas, 221–31, 227–29b access to finance, 188, 189, 287, 361, vulnerability reduction and, 25–33, 362, 368 27f access to information, 353–58 in water resources sector, 140–47, access to resources, 286–87 143f, 143t, 145f accountability Adaptation Fund (UNFCCC), 369 policy framework and, 363 Adaptation Pyramid, 5f, 7, 14, 30, 30f, in water governance, 138 348 adaptation adventure tourism, 242b in agriculture sector, 173–85, 174f, affordable housing, 215–16 176–77f, 178–79b, 180t, 181b, Agarwal, Anil, 135 198–201t agriculture, 2, 163–205 biodiversity and, 153–56t, 157f adaptation options, 173–85, 174f, capacity for, 36n14 176–77f, 178–79b, 180t, 181b, definitions, 25–27, 26b 198–201t disaster risk management and, 103 biosaline agriculture, 178b ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA), climate change impacts on, 169–73, 158–59 170t, 196–97t in ecosystem services, 153–56t, 157f crop yields, 171–73, 171f, 172t in health sector, 325–34, 335 disaster risk management and, implementation of, 31–32 105b monitoring outcomes, 32, 350 exports of, 166, 168 policy framework for, 348–50, farming systems, 164–66, 165t, 352–53, 370–77t 194–95t prioritization of options, 31, 349–50 financing of adaptation for, 188–89 381 382 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries food security and, 164, 168, 181–83, Alpert, Pinhas, 67 182b, 183t, 192–93, 201t Al-Shouf Cedar Nature Reserve institutional framework for, (Lebanon), 266b 168–69, 179–80, 190 Al-Turbak, Abdulaziz S., 130 irrigation, 141b, 165, 170–71, 173, Alzheimer’s disease, 319 174, 198t, 315, 359 American University of Beirut, 329 livestock yields, 171–73 Amman Green Growth Program market orientation for, 168 (Jordan), 358 policies for, 168–69, 185–90, 186f animal nutrition models, 173 policy framework for, 168–69, Antarctica ice melt, 73 185–90, 186f, 364–65 AOGCMs (atmosphere-ocean global population growth and, 164–69 climate models), 76 productivity, 167–69, 167f, 191–92 aquifers, 114, 124–25, 127, 132, 140 recommendations, 190–93 Arab Center for the Study of Arid research and development for, 189 Zones and Drylands, 189 rural livelihoods and, 184–85, 184t, Arab Climate Alliance, 329 193 Arab Economic and Social Council, technology for, 167–69, 167f, 102, 269n5 179–80 Arab Framework Action Plan, 280 trends in, 166 Arab Human Development Report 2009, water policies and, 187–88 155 water resource requirements of, Arab Ministerial Declaration on 121, 123–24, 123–24f, 140–44, Climate Change (2007), 102 141b, 164–73 Arab Network for Environment and women’s roles in, 281–82, 288, 292 Development (RAED), 329 agroforestry, 175 Arab Republic of Egypt. See Egypt AI (Aridity Index), 11 Arab Spring, 223, 257, 258b Ain Shams University, 329 Arab Strategy for Disaster Risk air quality, 313, 318 Reduction (ASDRR), 102 Al-Duwayqa landslide (2008), 225 Aridity Index (AI), 11 Alexandria, Egypt aridity zoning, 109, 110m adaptation strategies for, 227–28b ARZ Building Rating System Integrated Water Resources (Lebanon), 222 Management in, 138 ASDRR (Arab Strategy for Disaster urban adaptation strategies for, Risk Reduction), 102 227–28b Aswan High Dam (Egypt), 120, water resources in, 15b 129–30 Algeria atmosphere-ocean global climate adaptation strategies in, 10 models (AOGCMs), 76 climate data in, 353 awareness campaigns, 29, 137, 357–58 disaster risk management initiatives in, 102 B health impact of climate change in, Babah, Ouldbdey, 101 311b Bahrain tourism in, 245, 263, 264 Arab Climate Alliance and, 329 water resources in, 116f, 121, 144, disaster risk management initiatives 145f, 336n2 in, 102 Index 383 gender-responsive adaptation in, carbon markets, 188–89 280, 297 cardiovascular disease, 318–19, 322 health impact of climate change in, cash transfer programs, 182, 193, 361 319 CCA (climate change adaptation), tourism in, 245, 246, 248, 255 100. See also adaptation water resources in, 117f, 144, 336n2 Center for Environmental Health Ban Ki-Moon, 336n3 Activities, 326 barley, 176–77 Centers of Disease Control and barrier beaches, 159 Prevention (CDC, U.S.), 314 beach tourism, 252, 256, 270n10 cereals production, 167f, 168, 171, Bedouin 171f adaptation strategies of, 10, 23–24, children 24f, 34b health adaptation and, 322–23 climate change impacts on, 14 mortality rates, 288, 317, 317f defined, 35n9 cholera, 313, 315 ecotourism and, 259b Christensen, Jens H., 60, 68 bilharziasis, 315 Christensen, Ole B., 60 biodiversity civil society organizations adaptation role of, 152–61, 153–56t, adaptation strategies and, 28–29, 33 157f health adaptation and, 328–29 data collection and, 158 Clean Development Mechanism, 189 economic value of, 153–56 climate change ecotourism and, 255 adaptation strategies, 25–28, 26b financing for, 159 agricultural impact of, 163–205. management of, 159 See also agriculture tourism and, 266 awareness of, 28 biosaline agriculture, 178b current status of, 11–14 biosphere reserves, 158, 266 definitions, 13b birth defects, 319 disaster risk management and, Black, Emily, 60 100–107. See also disaster risk Block, Rachel I., 25 management (DRM) brackish water, 178b gender-responsive adaptation to, building codes, 221–22, 234n1 277–307. See also gender- Building Research Establishment responsive adaptation Environmental Assessment health impacts of, 309–45. See also Method (BREEAM), 222 health household well-being impacted by, C 20–23, 21f cancer, 318 modeling of, 39–99. See also climate capacity building modeling for adaptation strategies, 353 policy framework for, 347–79. See climate modeling and, 50b also policy framework for disaster risk management, 101, rural areas vulnerable to, 23–25, 104 24f, 163–205. See also rural for health, 330b, 332 areas for tourism industry, 268 social differentiation of effects of, carbon dioxide effect, 148n3 14–25 384 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries tourism impacts of, 241–75. See also community-based water systems, 138 tourism Comoros urban area impacts of, 207–39. See Arab Climate Alliance and, 329 also urban areas disaster risk management initiatives water resources impact of, 109–51. in, 102 See also water resources rainfall patterns in, 46 climate change adaptation (CCA), vector-borne diseases in, 316b 100. See also adaptation water resources in, 336n2 climate extremes, defined, 41b conditional cash transfer programs, climate modeling, 39–99 361 capacity building and, 50b Conference of Parties 2011 case studies, 49–51, 50m (COP-17), 280 climate risk checklist, 86–92 conflict-affected areas definitions, 40–41b health in, 320–21, 336n3 downscaled projections, 60–71, urbanization in, 209, 211 61–63b, 62–66m, 68f conjunctive management, 176, 177 extreme events, 51–52, 52f, 57–60, Convention for the Elimination of 59m All Forms of Discrimination heat stress risks, 71, 72m against Women, 295 impact models and, 77–79, 78b Cooperative Framework Agreement, IPCC AR4 projections, 53–60 126 IPCC AR5 projections, 75–77, 77f cooperative management of water observational networks, 45b resources, 139–40 rainfall trends, 53–57, 56m, 68–71, Coordinated Regional Climate 69m, 70f, 84–85t Downscaling Experiment regional projections, 42–60, (CORDEX), 79–80 46–47m Copenhagen Climate Change resolution improvement, 79–80 Conference (2009), 73 sea-level rise, 72–75, 74f coral reefs, 11, 158, 255b seasonal-to-decadal projections, CORDEX (Coordinated Regional 81–83, 83m Climate Downscaling surface observation data, 43–44, Experiment), 79–80 43–44m, 45b Council of Arab Housing and temperature trends, 1–2, 48m, Construction Ministers, 222 48–49, 53–57, 54–56m Council of Arab Ministers climate risk checklist, 86–92 Responsible for the climate scenarios, defined, 40b Environment, 102, 134, 269n5, climate variability, 10, 13b, 58, 152, 280 156 Country Partnership Strategy, 28 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Coupled Model Intercomparison Intercomparison Project), Project (CMIP5), 75–76 75–76 credit, access to, 287, 361, 362 coastal aquifers, 132 crop mixes, 124, 198t coastal recreation tourism, 252, 255, crop modeling, 21 256 crop rotation, 175 Coastal Research Institute, 155 crop switching, 176, 176f Index 385 crop yields, 171–73, 171f, 172t desertification, 218b Cullen, Heidi M., 47 Dessai, Suraje, 63b culture Development Assistance Committee environmental influences on, 9–10 (OECD), 26b tourism and, 252, 254t, 262t diarrhea, 310, 313, 314, 315, 322 customary law, 287 digitization of data, 45b, 355 Cyclone Gonu (2007), 35n7 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), Cyclone Phet (2010), 11 314 disaster risk management (DRM) D climate resilience and, 100–107 dairy milk production, 166, 173, 184 hazard risk profile of Arab states, DALYs (disability-adjusted life years), 101–2, 101f 314 mitigation responses and, 102–3, data collection 103–6b for biodiversity, 158 policy framework and, 103–4, data rescue and digitization, 45b, 370–71t 355 recommendations, 104–5 for ecosystem services, 158 rural-to-urban migration and, 193 for gender-responsive adaptation, tourism and, 261, 268 298 urbanization and, 226 for health adaptation, 323–25 water resources and, 139, 146 policy framework and, 353–55, 354t disaster risk reduction (DRR), 102 for rainfall, 43–44, 43–44m disease mapping, 325 Dead Sea, 154 divorce rates, 284 decision making Djibouti gender-responsive adaptation and, disaster risk management in, 288–89 104–6b participatory, 29, 363 drought response in, 104–6b women’s participation in, 279, 284, National Adaptation Programme of 297 Action in, 363 deforestation, 153, 211 vector-borne diseases in, 316b DELP (Desert Ecosystems and water-related illnesses in, 315 Livelihoods Project, Jordan), water resources in, 117f, 336n2 34b downscaling demand-side management of water defined, 40b resources, 134–37, 187–88 improvements in, 79–80 dengue fever, 316b projections, 60–71, 61–63b, DePreSys (climate model), 82 62–66m, 68f desalination drainage systems, 217, 230 adaptation strategies and, 128, 359, dredging, 154 361 drip irrigation, 359 costs of, 142–43 DRM. See disaster risk management energy sector and, 233b droughts water resources and, 133–34 agriculture and, 172 Desert Ecosystems and Livelihoods climate modeling for, 66, 68, 69m Project (DELP, Jordan), 34b defined, 35n11 386 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries disaster risk management and, 101, gender differences in, 284–85 101f, 105b, 139, 146 policy framework and, 358–59 monitoring indexes, 49 vulnerability and, 14 rural livelihoods impact of, 17b of women, 288, 290, 299b trends in, 11, 22 Egypt urban areas and, 208, 218 access to finance in, 188 Dubai agriculture in, 165, 357 flooding in, 217 Arab Climate Alliance and, 329 tourism in, 246 building codes in, 222 dust storms, 100 climate data in, 353 dysentery, 313, 315 disaster risk management initiatives in, 102 E displacement projections for, 314 early warning systems, 104 ecosystem services in, 153 earth system models (ESMs), 76 female-headed households in, 284 Eastern Mediterranean Regional gender-responsive adaptation in, Office (EMRO, WHO), 324, 280, 297 326, 336n1 gender roles in, 282 EBA (ecosystem-based adaptation), health impact of climate change in, 158–59 311b, 318, 324 Ebinger, Jane, 25 Integrated Water Resources ecological footprint, 155–56, 157f Management in, 138 economic value National Adaptation Programme of of agriculture, 166 Action in, 364b of biodiversity and ecosystem research and development in, 359 services, 153–56 shared water resources and, 126, climate change impacts on, 18–20, 140 105b tourism in, 241, 245–48, 250, 250f, of tourism, 241–49, 242–43b, 251, 257, 258b, 264, 267 244–46f, 247t, 248m urbanization in, 209 ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA), vector-borne diseases in, 316b 158–59 wastewater treatment in, 220 ecosystem services water-related climate change adaptation role of, 152–61, 153–56t, impacts in, 15b 157f water resources in, 15b, 116f, 119, data collection and, 158 120, 129–30, 188, 189, 336n2 economic value of, 153–56 women landowners in, 286 financing for, 159 emergency preparedness response management of, 159 plans, 332, 335 policy framework for, 374–75t employment risk management and, 156–59 in agriculture, 166 rural livelihoods and, 188 outdoor workers, 322 ecotourism, 190, 242b, 252, 254t, 255, in tourism, 3, 246–48, 269n3 259b, 262t EMRO. See Eastern Mediterranean education Regional Office drought and, 292 energy sector, 232–33b Index 387 Erian, Wadid, 101 policy framework and, 368–69 erosion, 175, 261, 268 rural livelihoods and, 185 ESMs (earth system models), 76 fisheries, 127, 153, 158, 198t Estidama (United Arab Emirates), 222 flash floods, defined, 41b. See also Ethiopia, water resources in, 15b flooding Euphrates-Tigris Basin, 126, 140 flooding European Climate Assessment and climate change impacts on, 126–27 Dataset, 353 defined, 41b European Union disaster risk management and, 101, agricultural trade with, 168 101f, 139, 146 disaster risk management initiatives, health and, 313 105b risk management for, 230, 231t Evans, Jason P., 60, 64, 113 trends in, 11, 22–23 evapotranspiration rates, 110, 110m, urban areas and, 208, 227b, 228b 123, 130, 148n3, 215 water resources and, 114, 126–27 exports of agriculture, 166, 168 Food and Agriculture Organization extreme weather events (FAO), 219, 326 agriculture and, 172 food-borne diseases, 317–18 climate modeling for, 51–52, 52f, food poisoning, 317 57–60, 59m food security defined, 41b agriculture and, 164, 168, 181–83, energy sector and, 232b 182b, 183t, 192–93, 201t food-borne diseases and, 318 drought and, 22 health and, 312–14 gender roles and, 282 trends in, 11 price shocks and, 181, 183 vulnerability and, 362 storage and transport issues, 361 forecasting, 101. See also climate F modeling FAO (Food and Agriculture formal housing, 215–16 Organization), 219, 326 Framework for Action on Climate Farmers’ Services Centre (Abu Change Adaptation, 14, 29, Dhabi), 181b 348, 369 farming systems, 164–66, 165t, Freiwan, Muwaffaq, 51 194–95t freshwater aquifers, 114, 124–25, 127, Fay, Marianne, 25 132, 140 feedlot production, 166 Frich, Povl, 51–52 fertigation, 175 Fünfgeld, Hartmut, 223 fertility rates, 211, 283, 285 financing G access to, 188, 189, 287, 361, 362, gas sector. See oil and gas sector 368 Gaza. See West Bank and Gaza of agricultural adaptation, 188–89 GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), of biodiversity protection, 159 130, 133 of ecosystem services, 159 GCMs. See global circulation models IDA Crisis Response Window gender equality, 295–96, 299b funding, 106b gender mainstreaming, 297 388 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries gender-responsive adaptation, 3–4, Global Environment Facility (World 277–307 Bank), 189 access to resources and, 286–87 Global Environment Fund, 34b case studies, 290–95 Global Facility for Disaster Reduction climate change impacts and, 278–79 and Recovery (GFDRR), 105b data collection for, 298 Global Framework for Climate gender equality and, 295–96, 299b Services, 78b, 83 gender roles and relations, 281–89, Global Gender and Climate Alliance 285t, 286b (GGCA), 280 institutional framework and, Global Water Partnership (GWP), 296–97 129, 138 migration and, 283–84 grain production, 165 participation in decision making gray water, 219 and, 288–89 Greater Horn of Africa Consensus policy framework and, 280–81, Climate Outlook, 82 301–3t, 376–77t green accounting, 158 rural livelihoods and, 1, 281–84, green agriculture, 190 282f, 283b, 287–88 green buildings, 221–22 vulnerability and, 278, 279 Green Climate Fund, 280 gender roles and relations, 281–89, Greenland ice melt, 73 285t, 286b Green Pyramid Rating System geographic information system (GIS), (Egypt), 222 46, 357 Green Star, 222 German Agency for International groundwater reserves Cooperation (GIZ), 295, agriculture and, 175 304n10 collaborative management of, 179, German Agency for Technical 190 Cooperation (GTZ), 291b, extraction charges, 135 304n10 regulation of, 168 GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster water resources, 124–25, 130–31 Reduction and Recovery), GTZ (German Agency for Technical 105b Cooperation), 291b, 304n10 GGCA (Global Gender and Climate Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Alliance), 280 130, 133 Ghoneim, Eman, 211 Gulf region subgroup. See also specific giardiasis, 315 countries GIS (geographic information system), agriculture in, 166, 357 46, 357 defined, 16 GIZ (German Agency for desalination in, 133 International Cooperation), ecosystem services in, 156 295, 304n10 food security in, 365 Global Assessment Report on Disaster gender-responsive adaptation in, Risk Reduction 2011 299b (UNISDR), 102 health impacts of climate change in, global circulation models (GCMs), 21, 311b, 319, 324 40b, 53, 60, 110–11 research and development in, 359 Index 389 socioeconomic data, 18–19, 18–19t refugees and, 321–22 tourism in, 246, 265t reproductive health services, 283 water resources in, 120, 128 research needs, 323–25, 329–30 GWP (Global Water Partnership), safety net programs for, 182, 193 129, 138 sea-level rise and, 321 service delivery improvements, H 332–33 hajj pilgrimage, 251–52, 320 vector-borne diseases, 315, 316b Hall, Alan W., 138 vulnerable population groups, hazard mitigation interventions, 105b 320–23, 332–33 health, 4, 309–45 water-related illnesses, 315–17 adaptation strategies, 325–34, 335 women’s, 288, 290, 322–23 capacity building for, 332 heat island effect, 3, 214–15, 223 children, 322–23 heat stress civil society organizations and, adaptation strategies and, 330b 328–29 climate modeling of, 71, 72m climate change impacts on, 311b, outdoor workers and, 322 312–19, 312f, 359 urban livelihoods and, 222–23 collaboration for, 330–31 heat waves conflict-affected areas, 320–21 defined, 41b data collection for, 323–25 mortality and morbidity related to, extreme weather events and, 313–14, 320 312–14 hepatitis A, 313, 315 flood-related diseases, 313 Hewitson, Bruce, 68 food-borne diseases, 317–18 HFA. See Hyogo Framework for gender differences in, 284–85 Action heat wave–related mortality and High Council for Water and Climate morbidity, 313–14, 320 (Morocco), 367b indirect effects of climate change, household well-being, 20–23, 21f. See 314–19 also rural areas; urban areas informal housing and, 321 housing, informal, 215–17, 226, 313 information systems for, 323–25, Human Development Report 2007/2008 331–32 (UNDP), 310 institutional framework for, human resources, 358–59 327–28, 333–34 hydrological institutes, 45b internally displaced populations Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), and, 321–22 102, 103, 103b malnutrition, 317–18 hyperthermia, 313 migration and, 294 older adults, 322–23 I outdoor workers, 322 ice melt, 73 policy framework and, 330b, IDA Crisis Response Window 376–77t funding, 106b psychological, 314 IDPs (internally displaced people), public health systems and, 334–35 321–22 recommendations for, 331–34 illegal taps into water supply, 219, 230 390 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries impact models, 77–79, 78b, 83 definitions, 13b IMPETUS (climate monitoring on gender as vulnerability factor, network), 356b 280 index insurance, 362b on health adaptation, 325 industrial waste, 127 on urban water supplies, 219 infectious diseases, 330b. See also on vulnerability to climate change, vector-borne diseases 25, 35n2 informal housing interior aquifers, 127 climate change impacts on, 208 internally displaced people (IDPs), health and, 321 321–22 urban livelihoods and, 215–17, 226, International Center for Agricultural 229 Research in the Dry Areas, information systems, 5, 323–25, 189 331–32 International Center for Biosaline infrastructure Agriculture, 178b, 189 biodiversity and, 153 International Centers of Excellence, climate mainstreaming and, 366 78b energy sector, 233b International Conference on Water water supply, 129 and the Environment (1992), Institute for Environmental Studies 128 and Research, 329 International Finance Corporation, institutional framework 222 for adaptation strategies, 6, 352 International Food Policy Research for agriculture, 168–69, 179–80, Institute, 172 190 International Fund for Agricultural gender-responsive adaptation and, Development, 178b 296–97, 301t International Research Institute for for health adaptation, 325–30, Climate and Society (IRI), 82 333–34 International Union for Conservation policy framework and, 363–68, of Nature (IUCN), 280, 294 364b, 365t Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone for tourism, 258 (ITCZ), 39, 40b, 43, 55, 64 urbanization and, 223 invasive species, 153 insurance, 251, 333, 361, 362b IPCC. See Intergovernmental Panel Integrated Water Resources on Climate Change Management (IWRM), 128– IPCC AR4 29, 138–39, 146, 156, 157b climate modeling, 39, 53–60, 63b intercropping, 173, 174f, 175 on health impact of climate change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 310 Change (IPCC) on sea-level rise, 73 adaptation defined by, 26b on urbanization, 209, 225 assessment reports. See IPCC AR4; IPCC AR5 climate modeling, 75–77, IPCC AR5 77f on climate change impacts on Arab Iran countries, 111 shared water resources and, 126 on climatological data, 353 water resources in, 113, 133, 144 Index 391 Iraq health adaptation in, 326 climate modeling for, 64 health impact of climate change in, displaced population of, 322 311b health impact of climate change in, Integrated Water Resources 320 Management in, 138–39 rainfall patterns in, 47 migration to, 293 shared water resources and, 126, shared water resources and, 140 140 tourism in, 241, 246, 248, 252, 256, temperature change in, 35n6 264, 267 vector-borne diseases in, 316b wastewater treatment in, 133 water-related illnesses in, 315 water-related climate change water resources in, 113, 116f, 119 impacts in, 15b IRI (International Research Institute water resources in, 15b, 113, 116f, for Climate and Society), 82 122, 144, 189, 336n2 irrigation water tariffs in, 136 adaptation strategies for, 198t women landowners in, 286 agricultural use of, 165, 170–71 Jordanian Dana Biosphere Reserve, drip irrigation, 359 259b, 267 efficiency of, 141b supplementary, 173, 174 K wastewater used for, 315 Kadio˘glu, Mikdat, 51 Islamic Republic of Iran. See Iran Katlan, Bassem, 101 ITCZ. See Inter-Tropical Khamsin component, 47 Convergence Zone King Abdullah City for Atomic and IUCN (International Union for Renewable Energy, 134 Conservation of Nature), 280, King Abdullah University of Science 294 and Technology (Saudi IWRM. See Integrated Water Arabia), 78b, 359, 367 Resources Management Krichak, Simon O., 67 Kunin, Pavel, 67 J Kuwait Jordan climate data in, 356 adaptation education in, 358 climate modeling for, 64 agriculture in, 165, 166, 357 health impact of climate change in, Arab Climate Alliance and, 329 318 building codes in, 222 socioeconomic data, 4, 18–19t, 19 climate modeling for, 49, 51, 68 temperature change in, 11, 48 Desert Ecosystems and Livelihoods water resources in, 117f, 144 Project (DELP), 34b disaster risk management initiatives L in, 102 labor force participation, 287–88, evapotranspiration rates in, 110 304n1 gender-responsive adaptation in, land ownership, 285, 286–87, 304n6 280, 294–95 landscape mapping, 350 groundwater reserves in, 125, 131, landslides, 100, 225 132 land-use planning, 101, 261, 268 392 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries leadership, 32–33, 352 water resources in, 113, 116f, 118, Leadership in Energy and 119f, 122, 189 Environmental Design LEED (Leadership in Energy and (LEED), 222 Environmental Design), 222 League of Arab States leishmaniasis, 316b building code standards and, 222 leptospirosis, 313 disaster risk management and, 102 Libya gender-responsive adaptation and, climate data in, 353 304n3 displaced population of, 322 members of, 33n1 health impact of climate change in, tourism and, 269n5 319, 320 least developed countries (LDC). See socioeconomic data, 18–19t, 19 also specific countries tourism in, 256, 258b biodiversity in, 153 vector-borne diseases in, 316b defined, 16 water resources in, 116f, 120, 137 disaster risk management in, 139 life expectancy, 285 ecosystem services in, 156 literacy, 288, 291b, 304n7. See also health impact of climate change in, education 311b livestock National Adaptation Programme of adaptation strategies for, 171–73, Action in, 363 198t policy framework for, 347 climate change impacts on, 172 socioeconomic data, 4, 18–19, 18–19t disaster risk management and, 105b tourism in, 265t rural livelihoods and, 163, 166 water resources in, 121 lymphatic filariasis, 316b Least Developed Countries Fund, 369 Lebanon M agriculture in, 165, 166 Maghreb. See also specific countries building codes in, 222 agriculture in, 165, 171 climate data in, 353 climate change impacts in, 16 climate modeling for, 49, 51, 68 climate modeling for, 39, 42, disaster risk management initiatives 66–68, 67f in, 102 climatology case study, 49 displaced population of, 322 defined, 16 health impact of climate change in, health impact of climate change in, 318, 320, 321, 324 311b migration to, 293 rainfall patterns in, 49 rainfall patterns in, 47 socioeconomic data, 18–19, 18–19t research and development in, 359 temperature change in, 48, 48m shared water resources and, 140 tourism in, 246, 263, 265t socioeconomic data, 18–19t, 19 Mahwed, K., 51 tourism in, 241, 246–52, 255–56, malaria, 310, 313, 314, 316b 264, 266b, 267, 269n7 malnutrition, 310, 314, 317–18, 319 urban adaptation in, 221 market-based instruments for wastewater management in, 127 managing water resources, water-related illnesses in, 315 134–37, 135f, 146 Index 393 Masdar Institute (United Arab Millennium Development Goals, 208, Emirates), 157b, 359 300 Mashreq. See also specific countries mixed crops, 173, 174f, 175 agriculture in, 165, 171 MMD. See multimodel data set climate change impacts in, 16 Modeling and Monitoring Agriculture climate modeling for, 39, 42, 49–51, and Water Resources 60–65, 68–71, 69m, 70f Development (MAWRED), defined, 16 189 food security in, 365 monitoring health impact of climate change in, adaptation implementation, 32 311b drought data, 49 socioeconomic data, 18–19, 18–19t for policy framework, 350 temperature change in, 48, 48m water resources, 189 tourism in, 245–46, 248, 264, 265t, Morocco 267 access to finance in, 188, 189 water resources in, 113 agriculture and food security in, 182b maternal mortality, 285, 288 Arab Climate Alliance and, 329 Mauritania biodiversity in, 155, 156 climate modeling for, 66 climate data in, 353, 356b rural poverty in, 164 climate modeling for, 66, 67, 68 urban areas impacted by climate climatology case study, 49 change, 218b disaster risk management initiatives vector-borne diseases in, 316b in, 102 women as primary caregivers in, female-headed households in, 284 283 gender-responsive adaptation in, MAWRED (Modeling and 292, 293b Monitoring Agriculture health impact of climate change in, and Water Resources 311b Development), 189 Integrated Water Resources medical tourism, 249, 254t, 256, 262t, Management in, 157b 263, 267, 270n13 rainfall patterns in, 47 Mehened, Ahmed, 212b socioeconomic data, 18–19t, 19 mental health disorders, 314 tourism in, 241, 245–46, 248, 252, Messouli, Mohamed, 292 255–56, 263–64, 267 meteorological institutes, 45b urban adaptation strategies for, Mexico, agricultural water use in, 142 227b, 228b microclimates, 110 vector-borne diseases in, 316b microcredit, 188 water resources in, 116f, 136, 189, microsimulation modeling, 21 336n2 migration women landowners in, 286 gender-responsive adaptation and, mulching practices, 173 283–84, 292–94 multimodel data set (MMD), 53, 58, natural disasters and, 101 59m tourism and, 257 Municipality Drainage and Irrigation vulnerability and, 14 Network Department (Dubai), milk production, 166, 173, 184 217 394 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries N O Nairobi Work Programme, 280, 304n2 oases, 110, 158 NAO. See North Atlantic Oscillation observational networks, 45b National Adaptation Programme of OECD. See Organisation for Action (NAPA), 28, 280, 347, Economic Co-operation and 363 Development National Aeronautics and Space oil and gas sector, 232–33b Administration (NASA, U.S.), Oman 189 climate data in, 16, 356 National Center for Agricultural climate modeling for, 42 Research and Extension, 295 extreme weather events in, 11, National Ecological Institute of 35n7 Mexico, 142 health impact of climate change in, National Initiative for Human 311b, 319 Development (Morocco), 188 tourism in, 242b, 258b, 263 National Jordanian Commission for vector-borne diseases in, 316b Women, 295 water-related illnesses in, 315 nationals residing abroad, 251, 253t, water resources in, 117f, 120, 144 262t, 269n7 women as primary caregivers in, Natufians, 309 283 natural disasters, 310, 313. See also Önol, Bari , 49, 68 disaster risk management opportunity cost, 135–36, 137 (DRM) Organisation for Economic Co- nature tourism. See ecotourism operation and Development neurological disorders, 319 (OECD), 26b, 29, 369 Nile Basin outdoor workers, 322 biodiversity in, 155 overgrazing, 153 shared water resources and, 126 water-related climate change P impacts in, 15b Pakistan, temperature change in, 35n6 water-related illnesses in, 315, 317 Parkinson’s disease, 319 water resources in, 15b pastoralism, 121, 153, 173, 192 Nile Basin Hydrometeorological payment of ecosystem services (PES), Information System, 356b 368 Nile Basin Initiative, 126 PCR-GLOBWB model, 111 Nile Forecast Center (NFC), 356b PDNA (postdisaster needs nongovernmental organizations, assessment), 105b, 106b 328–29. See also civil society perturbation experiments, 61b organizations photovoltaic cells, 232b “no-regrets” actions, 227b Pilot Program for Climate Resilience, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 369 climate modeling and, 42 Planning, Transport, and Land Use defined, 40b for the Middle East Economy rainfall patterns and, 47, 67, 120 (PTOLEMY), 350 water resources and, 119 policy framework, 6, 347–79 Nubian Sandstone Aquifer, 140 access to information and, 353–58 Index 395 adaptation and, 348–50, 352–53, climate change impacts on, 14 370–77t gender differences in, 278 for agriculture, 168–69, 185–90, informal housing and, 216 186f, 364–65 in rural areas, 163–64, 321 awareness campaigns, 357–58 urban livelihoods and, 207, 225 climate modeling and, 353–55, 354t vulnerability and, 11 climate risk checklist for, 86–92 precipitation. See rainfall patterns education and, 358–59 private sector financing capacity and, 368–69 adaptation strategies and, 28–29 for gender-responsive adaptation, health adaptation and, 329 280–81, 301–3t as technical advisers, 366 for health adaptation, 330b tourism and, 258, 267–69 human resources and, 358–59 water supply and, 230 implementation issues, 350, 351b, productivity, agricultural, 167–69, 369 167f, 191–92 institutional framework and, progressive tariff systems, 136 363–68, 364b, 365t Prudhomme, Christel, 63b leadership and, 352 psychological health, 314 monitoring for, 350 PTOLEMY (Planning, Transport, prioritization of options, 349–50 and Land Use for the Middle public sector and, 366–67 East Economy), 350 research and development for, 359 public health, 132, 268, 327–28, risk assessment and, 31, 349, 349b 334–35 technological resources and, public-private partnerships, 261, 329, 359–61, 360t 368 training and, 358–59 public sector for urban livelihoods, 225–31 adaptation strategies and, 28–33, vulnerable populations and, 361–62, 30f 362b policy framework and, 366–67 water resources and, 355, 356b, tourism and, 267–69 364–65, 367b Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel, 141b political participation, 285, 288–89, 297 Q pollution, 127, 154, 223, 310, 313, Qatar 318 health impact of climate change in, population growth 319 agriculture and, 164–69 socioeconomic data, 4, 18–19t, 19 climate change impacts on, 19–20 temperature change in, 35n6 trends in, 35n3 tourism in, 263 urban livelihoods and, 211, 214m, water resources in, 117f, 133, 144 228b water resources and, 121–22, 122f R postdisaster needs assessment RAED (Arab Network for (PDNA), 105b, 106b Environment and poverty Development), 329 adaptation strategies and, 350 Raible, Christoph C., 67 396 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries rainfall patterns renewable energy, 232–33b climate modeling of, 53–57, representative concentration pathways 55–56m, 59m, 61b, 66m, 67f, (RCPs), 76, 77f 68–71, 69m, 70f, 84–85t reproductive health services, 283 droughts and, 17b Republic of Yemen. See Yemen energy sector and, 232–33b research and development North Atlantic Oscillation’s for agriculture, 189 influence on, 120 for health adaptation, 323–25, observation stations for, 43–44, 329–30 43–44m for policy framework, 359 trends in, 12, 22, 84–85t reservoirs, 129–30 urban areas and, 208, 210t, 217 resolution of climate modeling, water resources and, 118 58–60, 64m, 79–80 rainfed crops, 165, 169–70, 170t, 172t, respiratory infections, 218b, 314, 322, 173 330b rainwater catchment, 173, 179, Rift Valley fever, 316b 219–20 risk assessment and management. See Ramsar sites, 158 also disaster risk management rangelands, 166, 179 (DRM) RCMs. See regional climate models adaptation and, 31, 349, 349b RCPs (representative concentration biodiversity and, 156–59 pathways), 76, 77f climate risk checklist, 86–92 RDM (robust decision making), 350, ecosystem services and, 156–59 351b policy framework and, 31, 349, Red Sea, 154 349b reforestation, 226 River Basin Organizations, 367b refugees, 105b, 321–22 robust decision making (RDM), 350, Regional Bureau for Arab States, 351b 269n5 Rochdane, Saloua, 292 regional climate models (RCMs), 40b, Rogers, Peter, 138 50m, 51, 64, 71 rotational grazing, 190 Regional Committee for the Eastern Royal Society for the Conservation of Mediterranean, 311, 327 Nature (Jordan), 259b Regional Office for the Arab States, rule of law, 363 102 runoff, 109, 111, 119, 144 Regional Seminar on Climate Change rural areas. See also rural-to-urban and Health (2008), 324 migration regulatory framework adaptation strategies for, 23–25, for groundwater reserves, 168 24f, 281–84, 282f, 283b, for informal housing, 226, 229 287–88, 296 land ownership and, 286–87 agricultural adaptation in, 184–85, for tourism, 268 184t for water resources, 147 climate change impacts on religious tourism, 251–52, 253t, 262t, livelihoods in, 169–73, 193, 267 277 remittances, 17b disaster risk management in, 139 Index 397 division of labor in, 281 trends in, 12 drought effects on, 17b urban areas and, 208, 210t, 211, farm incomes in, 184–85 214, 227b food security in, 182, 192–93 SEAs (strategic environmental gender-responsive adaptation and, assessments), 158 1, 281–84, 282f, 283b, 287–88 seasonal-to-decadal projections, off-farm rural activities, 185 81–83, 83m policy framework for, 372–73t seawater intrusion, 132 poverty in, 321 Semazzi, Fredrick H. M., 49, 68 vulnerability to climate change, sewage, 127 23–25, 24f shade planting, 173 rural-to-urban migration Shahin, Mamdouh, 51 rural livelihoods and, 185, 193 shared water resources, 125–26, urbanization and, 211 139–40 water resources and, 349, 349b Sherwood, Steven, 71 Sinai Peninsula S vulnerability to climate change in, safety net programs, 182, 193, 282, 24, 24f 333 water-related climate change Sahara Desert, tourism in, 266b impacts in, 15b salinization of water supply, 127, 177 water resources in, 15b salt-tolerant crops, 177, 178b Siwa Oasis (Egypt), 266b sand filters, 291b smart buoys, 227b sandstorms, 218b Smith, Doug M., 82 SARS, 257, 270n14 SOI (Southern Oscillation Index), 82 Saudi Arabia soil fertility, 175 climate data in, 353 soil infiltration rates, 123 climate modeling for, 64 solar energy, 134, 232b energy sector in, 233b Somalia flooding in, 126–27, 217 agriculture in, 165, 166 groundwater reserves in, 124–25, disaster risk management in, 139 131 displaced population of, 322 health impact of climate change in, health impact of climate change in, 311b 311b, 320 research and development in, 359 rural poverty in, 164 temperature change in, 35n6 socioeconomic data, 35n10 tourism in, 241, 245, 251, 255, urbanization in, 211 258b, 267 vector-borne diseases in, 316b vector-borne diseases in, 316b water-related illnesses in, 315 water resources in, 117f, 120, 130, sorghum, 178b 144 Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), 82 schistosomiasis, 316b Sowers, Jeannie, 131 sea-level rise Special Climate Change Fund, 369 biodiversity and, 152 Special Report on Emission Scenarios climate modeling, 72–75, 74f (SRES), 53 health and, 321 statistical downscaling, 61b 398 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Stephan, Raya Marina, 140 disaster risk management initiatives Stern Review, 16 in, 102 storage and conveyance of water displaced population of, 322 resources, 129–31 drought effects on rural livelihoods storm surges, 40–41b, 75, 152 in, 17b, 22 strategic environmental assessments gender-responsive adaptation in, (SEAs), 158 292–94 straw production, 177 gender roles in, 281, 283–84 stress-related health problems, 314 health impact of climate change in, subsidiarity, 190 318, 319 Sudan household income in, 21, 21f agriculture in, 165, 166 informal housing in, 216 displaced population of, 322 rainfall patterns in, 17b health impact of climate change in, shared water resources and, 126, 311b, 320, 324 140 health surveillance system in, 323 socioeconomic data, 4 malnutrition in, 317 temperature change in, 48 National Adaptation Programme of tourism in, 241, 247, 252, 258b, 267 Action in, 363 urbanization in, 212b rainfall patterns in, 46 vector-borne diseases in, 316b research and development in, 359 water resources in, 113, 116f, 119, rural poverty in, 163, 164 121, 144, 336n2 shared water resources and, 126, women landowners in, 286 140 temperature change in, 35n6, 48 T urbanization in, 211 technology vector-borne diseases in, 316b for agriculture, 167–69, 167f, 179–80 water-related climate change policy framework and, 359–61, 360t impacts in, 15b teleconnections, 82, 119. See also water-related illnesses in, 315 North Atlantic Oscillation water resources in, 15b, 336n2 (NAO); Southern Oscillation supply chains, 182, 193 Index (SOI) supply-side management of water temperature change resources, 129–34 climate modeling for, 48m, 48–49, surface observation data, 43–44, 53–57, 54–57m, 65m, 68f 43–44m, 45b disease risk and, 215 surface storage of water resources, health impact of, 310, 314 130–31 trends in, 1–2, 11, 35n6, 84–85t surveillance systems, 323, 331–32 urban areas and, 208, 210t, 214–15, Syria 216m adaptation strategies in, 10, 24–25 Thailand, tourism decline related to Arab Climate Alliance and, 329 SARS, 257, 270n14 climate change impacts in, 16, 20, tillage practices, 173, 198t 21, 21f tourism, 3, 241–75 climate data in, 353 adaptation strategies for, 257–67, climate modeling for, 49, 51, 65, 68 258–59b, 260–62t, 265t, 266b Index 399 biodiversity and, 153 Turkey climate change impacts on, 20, shared water resources and, 126, 140 249–57, 250f, 253–54t, 255b water resources in, 113, 119, 133 diversification of tourist sectors, typhoid fever, 313, 315, 322 263–67, 265t, 266b economic value of, 241–49, U 242–43b, 244–46f, 247t, 248m unaccounted-for water (UfW), 137 ecotourism, 190, 242b, 252, 254t, unauthorized taps into water supply, 255, 259b, 262t 219, 230 industry knowledge development underground water storage, 130 for, 268 United Arab Emirates policy framework for, 374–75t access to finance in, 189 private and public sector Arab Climate Alliance and, 329 interventions for, 267–69 biodiversity in, 156 regulatory framework for, 268 groundwater reserves in, 125 water resources and, 259b health impact of climate change in, trachoma, 316b 318, 319 training, 358–59. See also education Integrated Water Resources transparency Management in, 157b policy framework and, 363 research and development in, 359 in water governance, 138 socioeconomic data, 4, 18–19t, 19 transport sector, 251, 351b, 361 tourism in, 241, 247, 248, 255, tropical cyclones, 11, 41b 258b, 267 Tunisia urban adaptation in, 221 adaptation strategies in, 24–25 vector-borne diseases in, 316b agriculture in, 166 water resources in, 117f, 130, 144, Arab Climate Alliance and, 329 145f, 336n2 biodiversity in, 155 United Nations climate change impacts in, 21, 21f on Bedouin migration to urban climate data in, 353 areas, 212b ecosystem services in, 153 Conference on Environment and household income in, 21, 21f Development (1992), 128 rural poverty in, 163 on drought impact in Syria, 292 socioeconomic data, 4 Economic and Social Commission tourism in, 241, 243b, 245–48, for Western Asia, 140, 223 252, 256–57, 258b, 264, 267, United Nations Development 270n10 Programme (UNDP), 105b, urban adaptation strategies for, 228b 294 vector-borne diseases in, 316b United Nations Educational, wastewater treatment in, 133 Scientific, and Cultural water resources in, 116f, 144, 188, Organization (UNESCO), 189, 336n2 266, 326 water tariffs in, 136 United Nations Framework Tunisian National Strategy for Convention on Climate Adaptation of the Tourism Change (UNFCCC), 33, Industry, 243b 36n16, 280, 369 400 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries United Nations International Strategy disaster risk management and, 101, for Disaster Reduction 139 (UNISDR), 102, 269n5 education and, 14 United Nations World Tourist extreme events and, 362 Organization (UNWTO), flooding and, 139 244, 269n2 gender-responsive adaptation and, unmetered water usage, 219 278, 279 urban areas, 2–3, 207–39 health and, 320–23, 332–33, 335 adaptation strategies for, 221–31, migration and, 14 227–29b policy framework and, 361–62, building codes and, 221–22 362b climate change impacts on, 208–9, poverty and, 11 210t, 212b, 218b sea-level rise and, 217 energy sector and, 232–33b shared water resources and, 125–26 flood risk management for, 230, urbanization and, 211 231t VWCs (village water committees), heat stress and, 222–23 291b housing in, 215–17, 226, 229, 362 policy framework for, 225–31, W 372–73t Ward, Frank A., 141b population growth and, 211, 214m warm-core storm systems, 41b rainfall patterns and, 217 wastewater treatment rainwater catchment in, 219–20 costs of, 136 temperature change and, 214–15, urban livelihoods and, 219–20, 220t 216m water resources and, 127, 132–33 wastewater treatment and, 219–20, water governance, 114, 138–39, 147 220t Water Information Systems Platform water resources and, 218–20 (WISP), 189 urban greening, 222–23, 224f, 226 Water Policy Reform Program urbanization (Egypt), 135 agriculture and, 184 water quality, 127 climate change impacts on, 20 water-related illnesses, 12, 315–17, storm surge zones and, 214, 215f 330b trends in, 209–15, 212b, 213m, 213f water resources, 2, 109–51 water resources and, 121–22 adaptation strategies, 140–47, 143f, U.S. Agency for International 143t, 145f Development (USAID), 189 agricultural uses, 123–24, 123–24f, 140–44, 141b, 164–73 V allocative efficiency of, 187 vector-borne diseases, 12, 309, 315, aridity zoning, 109, 110m 316b, 325 awareness campaigns for, 137 village water committees (VWCs), climate change impacts on, 15b, 291b 110–13, 112m, 113f vulnerability cooperative management of, building codes and, 221–22 139–40 defining, 25–27, 27f cost of, 135–37, 135f, 144, 145f, 219 Index 401 demand-side management of, climate data in, 356 134–37 disaster risk management initiatives desalination and, 133–34 in, 102 disaster risk management and, displaced population of, 322 104–6b, 139 gender roles in, 282 energy sector and, 233b health impact of climate change in, flooding and, 126–27 320 groundwater reserves, 124–25, water-related climate change 130–31 impacts in, 15b integrated water resources water resources in, 113, 117f, 144 management, 128–29 women as primary caregivers in, management of, 128–44 283 market-based instruments for wetlands, 154, 158, 211 managing, 134–37, 135f WG (weather generator) approach, 80 policy framework and, 355, 356b, wheat, 176–77 364–65, 367b, 370–71t WHO. See World Health population growth and, 121–22, Organization 122f Wilby, Rob L., 49, 51, 63b, 67 protection of, 131–32 Willett, Katharine M., 71 regional assessment of, 114–27, WISP (Water Information Systems 114–15t, 116–17f Platform), 189 rural-to-urban migration and, 349, women. See also gender-responsive 349b adaptation shared, 125–26, 139–40 adaptation education and training storage and conveyance of, 129–31 for, 3–4, 358–59 supply-side management of, 129–34 climate change impacts on, 20, surface storage strategies, 130–31 278–79 tourism and, 251, 257–58, 259b Convention for the Elimination of unaccounted-for water, 137 All Forms of Discrimination urbanization and, 121–22 against Women, 295 urban livelihoods and, 218–20 fertility rates, 211, 283, 285 variability of, 115–21, 116–19f health adaptation and, 322–23 wastewater treatment and reuse, labor force participation, 287–88, 132–33 304n1 water governance and, 138–39 land ownership by, 285, 286–87 water tariffs, 136 literacy rates of, 288, 291b, 304n7 WEAP (water resources planning reproductive health services for, model), 111 283 weather-based index insurance, 362b rural poverty and, 164 weather extremes. See extreme urban livelihoods and, 209 weather events World Bank weather generator (WG) approach, 80 on accountability, 138 Weinthal, Erika, 131 on adaptation strategies, 227b wellness tourism, 270n12 disaster risk management initiatives, West Bank and Gaza 105b, 106b Arab Climate Alliance and, 329 funding from, 369 402 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries Global Environment Facility, 189 disaster risk management initiatives on vulnerable populations, 104b in, 102 on water costs, 142 displaced population of, 322 on water supply, 111, 137, 144 flooding in, 23 World Development Report 2010 gender-responsive adaptation in, (World Bank), 9 290–91, 291b World Health Assembly, 327 gender roles in, 281, 283, 304n8 World Health Organization (WHO), health impact of climate change in, 310, 324, 335 311b, 320 World Meteorological Organization, health surveillance system in, 323 13b, 49, 78b, 83, 368 household income in, 21, 21f World Trade Organization, 264, 269n6 Integrated Water Resources Management in, 157b Y malnutrition in, 317 Yemen meteorological data in, 43, 44m access to finance in, 188 National Adaptation Programme of adaptation strategies in, 24–25, 33, Action in, 363 352 rural poverty in, 164 agriculture in, 166, 179b socioeconomic data, 4, 18–19t, 19 Arab Climate Alliance and, 329 tourism in, 247 biodiversity in, 156 urbanization in, 211 climate change impacts in, 16, 20, vector-borne diseases in, 316b 21, 21f, 22 water resources in, 113, 117f, 120 climate modeling for, 42, 51 Yemeni Women’s Union, 291b ECO-AUDIT Environmental Benefits Statement The World Bank is committed to preserving Saved: endangered forests and natural resources. • 24 trees The Office of the Publisher has chosen to print Adaptation to a Changing Climate in • 11 million Btu of total energy the Arab Countries on recycled paper with • 2,103 lb. of net greenhouse 30 percent postconsumer fiber in accordance gases with the recommended standards for paper • 11,407 gal. of waste water usage set by the Green Press Initiative, a nonprofit program supporting publishers in • 764 lb. of solid waste using fiber that is not sourced from endangered forests. 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