D,w ofFILE COPY The World Bank MOR OFMFCIAL USE ONLY Report No.P-2878-TA REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA FOR A COCONUT PILOT PROJECT September 18, 1980 This dscument hm a restited dib.bIm mmd my be md by recpiets ady in the pedformnce of their offia di"s. its emtms my *t ohrwwbe be dibucedd wIdo Word Bek authorIatIon. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit Tanzania Shilling (Tsh) Tsh 1.0 = US$0.12 US$1.00 = Tsh 8.30 US$1.00 SDR 0.755068 (As the Tanzania Shilling is officially valued in relation to a basket of the currencies of Tanzania's trading partners, the US Dollar/Tanzania Shilling exchange rate is subject to change. Conversions in this report were made at US$1.00 to Tsh 8.30 which is close to the 1979 average exchange rate. The US$/SDR exchange rate used in this report is that of June 30, 1980.) WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric British/US Equivalent I hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres I kilogram (kg) = 2.20 pounds (lb) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS FRG - Federal Republic of Germany GOT - Government of Tanzania GTZ - German Agency for Technical Cooperation MOA - Ministry of Agriculture PPMB - Project Preparation and Monitoring Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture FISCAL YEAR Government - July 1 - June 30 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY TANZANIA COCONUT PILOT PROJECT Credit and Project Summary Borrower: United Republic of Tanzania Beneficiary: Ministry of Agriculture Amount: SDR 5.2 million (US$6.8 million) equivalent Terms: Standard Project Description: The proposed project would, over a five year period, prepare a firm base for the rehabilitation of the coconut industry in Tanzania. It would finance varietal trials and improved maintenance and rehabilitation trials over an area of about 1,200 ha; a seed garden for the production of hybrid seed nuts; soil and hydrological surveys; the preparation of a feasibility study for the next phase of coconut development; and technical assistance, consulting services, and training of Tanzanian staff. The project faces few risks, although the proposed implementation schedule is dependent on the timely acquisition of seed nuts from other coconut growing countries. Estimated Project Costs: Local Foreign Total 1/ ------US$ Thousand------- Varietal Trials 842 899 1,741 Improved Maintenance and Rehabilitation Trials 500 1,217 1,717 Seed Garden 85 365 450 Soil and Hydrological Surveys - 422 422 Technical Assistance, Consulting Services and Training - 1,805 1,805 Sub-Total 1,427 4,708 6,135 Physical Contingencies: 120 271 391 Price Contingencies: 573 1,445 2,018 Total Project Cost 2,120 6,424 8,544 1/ The project would be exempted from identifiable taxes and duties. This document has a restticted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. - ii - Financing Plan Local Foreign Total ------US$ million------- IDA .4 6.4 6.8 80 Government of Tanzania 1.7 - 1.7 20 Project cost 2.1 6.4 8.5 100 Estimated Disbursements IDA Fiscal Year 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 -------------US$ Million--------------- Annual 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.7 Cumulative 1.0 2.3 3.5 4.9 6.1 6.8 Rate of Return: Not Applicable. Staff Appraisal Report: Report No. 2906-TA dated August 14, 1980. INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA FOR A COCONUT PILOT PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed credit to the United Republic of Tanzania of SDR 5.2 million (US$6.8 million) equivalent on standard terms to help finance adaptive research and development work essential to the future rehabilitation of the coconut industry in Tanzania. The proceeds of the credit would be made available to the Ministry of Agriculture. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. A Basic Economic Mission visited Tanzania in August 1976 and the Basic Economic Report was distributed in December 1977 (Report No. 1616-TA). A new Country Economic Memorandum is expected to be issued later this year, based on the findings of two economic missions to Tanzania in March and June 1980. A summary of social and economic data is in Annex I. Profile of the Economy 3. Tanzania is one of the 30 least developed countries in the world with a per capita income in 1979 of US$271. The economy is still heavily dependent on agriculture: 90% of the labor force is engaged in agriculture and approximately 50% of GDP and about 80% of total exports are derived from agricultural production. The industrial sector is still small, producing about 10% of GDP, approximately the same percentage as 11 years ago. The service sector produces about 40% of GDP. Overall population density is low, though a few areas are considered overpopulated. Population growth is estimated at more than 3.0% per annum with both fertility and mortality at relatively high levels. 4. Since the Arusha Declaration in 1967, Tanzania has pursued a socialist development strategy. Banking, insurance, and most large-scale enterprises in manufacturing, plantation agriculture, transportation, and wholesale trade are under state control. There is extensive state inter- vention in economic activity, including import licensing, foreign exchange 1/ This section is essentially the same as that of the President's Report on the Second Technical Assistance Project dated July 17, 1980. - 2 - controls, price control, the reservation of some activities to the state or cooperative sector, and detailed Government investment planning. The second major feature of Tanzania's development strategy is its strong emphasis on rural development and social programs to benefit the poor and reduce inequali- ties in income distribution. This is reflected in ambitious Government programs for the provision of rural water supplies, health services and universal primary education. Long Term Economic Trends 5. In the period 1966-79, real GDP at factor cost grew at an annual average rate of 4.7%, or about 1.7% per annum per capita. While economic growth was severely disrupted by the economic crisis following the failure of rains and large increases in import prices in 1973 and 1974, the economy recovered with annual growth of 5 to 6% for 1976 through 1979. 1/ During the seventies the service sector was the fastest growing sector at 6.3% per year. 6. Achieving and sustaining a high level of investment has been a major element in Tanzania's development strategy. In line with this, and led by a rapid expansion of public investments, the ratio of gross investment to GDP rose to a peak of 26% in 1971 from around 15% in the mid-1960s. With the completion of the Tanzania-Zambia Railway (TAZARA) in the early 1970s, this ratio fell to 21% in 1973 and has remained close to that level since. Although Tanzania has managed to sustain a high investment ratio, this success has not been matched by a similar performance in the mobilization of domestic savings or in the return on the investments undertaken. Domestic savings rose from 15% of GDP in 1966 to 17-18% in the early 1970s, fell to only 7-8% in 1974 and 1975, recovered to an average 15.7% in 1976 and 1977, but than fell to an average of only 7.2% in 1978 and 1979. Estimates of the incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR) show it increasing throughout the 1970s to a peak of 5.3 in 1973 and then declining to between 3.0-4.1 from 1975 to 1978. This improvement largely reflects the good performance of subsistence agri- culture as recorded in the official statistics. For the monetary sector-- where all the public investment is concentrated and where the data on returns are presumably more accurate--the ICOR has consistently been higher (around 5-7) and has shown no appreciable improvement during the 1970s. 7. By 1978, the last year for which data are available, progress had also been made in achieving the Government's objective of more equitable income distribution. Between 1969 and 1975, the average urban rural gap remained approximately constant, halting the trend towards an increasing gap in the early 1960s. Moreover, it is likely that this gap was slightly reduced from 1976 to 1978 due to continued recovery of agricultural production and higher producer prices. However, regional income differentials in rural areas have tended to widen slightly. Within the formal urban sector there has been 1/ These figures, derived from the official National Accounts Statistics, include very high estimates of growth in subsistence agriculture. More realistic estimates of overall economic growth would probably be 1.0 to 1.5% lower. - 3 - a dramatic narrowing of the post-tax income differential between the highest- Daid government officials and minimum wage earners, from 50 to 1 in 1961 to 8 to 1 in 1975. In May 1980, minimum wages were increased by up to 40%, decreasing this differential even further. However, a large informal sector has emerged comprising large numbers of unemployed and underemployed workers with earnings significantly below the official urban minimum wage. The poli- cies of wage restraint and higher producer prices pursued since 1975 should have a beneficial impact on almost all dimensions of income distribution, and the basic needs oriented programs in rural water, health and primary education (para. 4 above) are resulting in a redirection in public expenditures toward the rural poor. 8. Despite progress in external resource mobilization and income dis- tribution, some major economic problems have begun to manifest themselves in recent years. Exports have failed to keep pace with the growth of the rest of the economy; the overall export index is down almost one-third since 1966. This poor performance in exports is due to the poor growth rate of agricul- tural cash crops. While official agricultural output estimates have increased impressively in recent years (an average of 8.1% per annum from 1975 to 1979), most of this growth has been in the hard-to-measure subsistence sector; the monetary economy, and especially the productive monetary sector, have lagged well behind. This failure of export growth has led to increasing dependency on foreign loans and grants to pay for imports. 9. A second increasingly serious problem is the deceleration of the growth of domestic revenues. Recurrent revenues rose from 15% of GDP in 1967/68 to 22% in 1974/75, but since then have eroded steadily to 17.8%. While still at a high ratio to GDP compared to most other developing countries, Government revenues have been growing more slowly than GDP in recent years. At the same time, recurrent expenditures have been higher than budgeted. As a result, public sector savings have been well below expectations and the Government has had to rely more upon borrowing (both foreign and local) and external aid for financing development than was planned. Recent Economic Developments 10. During 1975-77, the Government adhered to the program agreed to at the time of the Program Loan (No. 1063-TA) in late 1974. This program included redirecting investment to the directly productive sectors of industry and agriculture, higher agricultural producer prices, constraints on wages and salaries, price and tax increases to restrain consumption and tight control of imports. These policies, aided by the boom in coffee prices, succeeded in keeping government spending under control with low levels of borrowing from the banking system and led to a balance of payments surplus of almost US$130 million in 1977. Food production increased and government stocks of most foodgrains reached record levels. In 1978, the Government was able to ease import restrictions and begin to import the spares and raw materials needed by all the major sectors in the economy. - 4 - 11. Unfortunately, the price of coffee, Tanzania's major export, began to fall at the same time that imports were liberalized. Also, in October 1978, war broke out with Uganda nad the resulting imports of military equip- ment and mobilization of resources required for the war effort put an increas- ing strain on the balance of payments and the domestic budget. Consequently, the current account showed a deficit of more than US$600 million in 1978 and the overall balance of payments was more than US$300 million in deficit. The Government's foreign reserves were rapidly drawn down and the country was forced to delay payment of about US$65 million in import bills. 12. The situation continued to be bad in 1979. The overall balance of payments for 1979 is estimated at US$40 million in deficit, and arrears on import payment were estimated at about US$160 million by the end of the year. At the same time, the domestic budget deficit has increased substantially. A recurrent budget deficit of almost TSh 2.2 billion (US$265 million), was recorded in FY1978/79 and government borrowing from the banking system was TSh 3 billion (US$360 million), a major component in the increase in the money supply of about 39%. In an effort to deal with the increasing balance of pay- ments deficit, import licenses were reduced by almost 40% in real terms from the 1978 level and the Government announced a 10% devaluation in January 1979. In addition, the FY1979/80 budget called for a reduction in the level of recurrent expenditure and borrowing from the banking system of TSh 1.67 bil- lion; however, recurrent expenditures increased to TSh 9.1 billion (23% over budget) as spending agencies, due to the lack of budgetary discipline, were able to exceed their allocations. Government borrowing from the banking system was again about TSh 3 billion, 83% above the planned amount. In early 1979, the Government arranged for almost US$75 million in funds from the IMF from a First Credit Tranche, the Trust Fund and the Export Compensatory Fund, and negotiations for further assistance were completed in August 1980. Agreement on a two-year program is scheduled to go to the IMF Board in mid- September and is expected to provide up to US$260 million over two years. The program agreed to with the IMF will provide a start for a comprehensive program to deal with Tanzania's economic problems, but more work still needs to be done to bring about a gradual improvement of the supply situation. The Bank is working closely with the Government in developing such a program. 13. Tanzania continues to attract large amounts of foreign assistance on concessional terms. Because of the very concessional terms on which aid has been given to Tanzania and the Government's reluctance in the past to use higher cost commercial loans and supplier-s credits, the overall debt service ratio has historically been less than 10%. However, the debt service burden is expected to increase as past loans fall due for repayment and new borrow- ings, including some on commercial terms, are required to meet the widening balance of payments gap. This, together with the poor export prospects, could raise the debt service ratio to 15%-20% during the 1980s. In 1979, the Bank held 13% of Tanzania's external debt (for the Bank Group, it was 30%) and received 33% of Tanzania's debt service (37% for the Bank Group). We are projecting this debt service share to fall to around 25% during the coming decade. - 5 - 14. Tanzania's development program will require resources in excess of domestic savings and external capital made available to finance the foreign exchange costs of projects. Given the Government's efforts to mobilize domestic resources and in view of our support for its increased emphasis on local cost intensive rural investments, the Bank Group will continue to finance a high proportion of total costs including, in appropriate cases, a portion of local costs. East African Community (EAC) 15. Developments in the East African Community were outlined in a report to the Executive Directors dated December 19, 1977 (R77-312). Dr. Victor Umbricht, the independent mediator appointed by the Partner States, has visited East Africa on numerous occasions and has now prepared reports on the results of his fact-finding work on the EAC Corporations and the General Services, and the methodology adopted in appraising the assets and liabilities. In late March 1980, the mediator presented to the three Governments his proposals for the allocation of these assets and liabilities, for their consideration. The next step would be the start of negotiations among the three Governments based on the mediators proposals. According to his terms of reference, the mediator would be available to assist in arriving at a definitive settlement. The mediators report and recommendations on the future structure of the East African Development Bank (EADB) have been accepted by the Partner States. The revised EADB Charter along with the Treaty amending and re-enacting the new Charter have been submitted to the three Governments for signature as soon as they are constitutionally ready; this is expected shortly. 16. The de facto breakup of the Community has had some impact on Tanzanias budget as new national entities take over the services formerly provided by the EAC Corporations. A major development related to the EAC difficulties was the closure of the border with Kenya. Kenya was a major trading partner of Tanzania and considerable adjustments have had to be made in locating new suppliers for some items and developing alternative outlets for some manufactured goods and agricultural products. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN TANZANIA 17. Tanzania joined the Bank, IDA and IFC in 1962. Beginning with an IDA credit for education in 1963, 46 IDA credits and 19 Bank loans, of which two on Third Window terms, amounting to US$892.5 million have so far been approved for Tanzania. In addition, Tanzania has been a beneficiary of 10 loans totalling US$244.8 million which have been extended for the development of the common services and development bank operated regionally by Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda through their association in the East African Community. IFC investments in Tanzania, totalling US$4.7 million, were made to the Kilombero Sugar Company in 1960 and 1964. This Company encountered financial difficulties and in 1969, IFC and other investors sold their interest in the Company to the Government. A new IFC investment of US$1.7 million in - 6 - soap manufacturing in Mbeya was approved by the Executive Directors on June 8, 1978 and an investment of US$1.5 million in metal product manufacturing was approved on May 10, 1979. Annex II contains summary statements of Bank loans, IDA credits and IFC investments to Tanzania and the East African Community organizations and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 18. To support Tanzania's overall development strategy Bank Group lending operations have assisted a wide spectrum of activities. Nearly every sector in which the Bank Group has operational capacity has received some attention. While this broad involvement in Tanzania's development efforts will be continued, future work is expected to concentrate on three general areas: (i) agriculture; (ii) transport and communications; and (iii) education. As agriculture and related activities constitute the largest single sector in the economy, it has received 30% of the Bank Group's direct lending to Tanzania. The lending program in agriculture features three main types of projects. A series of regional rural development projects are focusing on production but also supporting the development of the regional infrastructure needed to remove production constraints. The Kigoma Project (Credit No. 508-TA) was the first of these, and similar projects have recently been approved for Tabora (Credit No. 703-TA) and Mwanza/Shinyanga (Credit No. 803-TA) regions. Another group of projects in agriculture are centred on particular promising crops (such as maize, tea, tobacco and pyrethrum) and are the responsibility of the Ministry of Agriculture or of one of its parastatals, and typically support their capacity to provide support services for the sector. A third set of projects is designed to improve general support services for the agricultural sector. An example of this is the recently-approved Tanzania Rural Development Bank Project (Credit No. 987-TA). 19. Alongside agriculture, there has been a major focus in Bank Group work on transport and communications and education. Transportation diffi- culties are continuously cited as critical constraints to development in Tanzania. Indeed, the Governments inability to ensure the timely avail- ability of inputs or the regular collection of crops has been a major bottle- neck to increased production in the agriculture sector. Furthermore, during the seventies transport investments were primarily concentrated around the Tanzania-Zambia Corridor and since 1977 no systematic investment program has been prepared for the subsectors which were overseen by EAC Corporations. The major objectives of proposed Bank Group activities are therefore to develop a more balanced investment program in transport and communications and to provide institution-building assistance to the ministries and newly established national corporations responsible for railways, ports and tele- communications. Shortages in skilled manpower are also a worsening bottle- neck to development. Bank Group involvement in education has supported both specialized training and the development of the secondary education sector to assist the Government in meeting its manpower needs. 20. Projects which have been recently approved or appraised reflect the above outlined priorities. Those approved include a Pyrethrum Project (Credit No. 1007-TA), a Foodgrain Storage and Milling Project (Credit No. 1015-TA), a Tea Processing Project (Credit No. 1037-TA), a Dar es Salaam Port - 7 - Engineering Project (Credit No. S-24-TA) and a Seventh Education Project C1 ;- No. 1056-TA). Projects which have been appraised include a rural development project for Mara Region, a telecommunications project and a small scale industries project. 21. Although the comparatively high undisbursed proportion of loans and credits, detailed in Annex II, is to some extent a result of the recent approval of many of these projects, it also reflects the fact that overall project implementation has been slower than was projected. It is clear in retrospect that both the Bank Group and Tanzania have been optimistic regard- ing Tanzania-s absorptive capacity. The causes of the difficulties in implementation are varied. Some stem from the scarcity of suitably trained and experienced manpower, which has triggered the Bank Group's expanded efforts in education and training over the past five years. Other implemen- tation problems reflect the difficulty of identifying agronomic input packages appropriate to the needs of smallholder farmers or result from the strains associated with attempting a "frontal attack" on poverty. These problems have been compounded by frequent and drastic administrative changes, which -- though potentially the source of long-term benefits -- have certainly disrupted orderly execution of projects and made parts of earlier project concepts obsolete. In addition, the Uganda war (para. 11) has had some impact on project implementation. In the early stages of the war, there was some diversion of equipment and manpower; however these problems have largely been solved. The more serious problem over the medium term is the financial implications of the war. If general economic problems resulting from the war are not resolved, the availability of adequate local funds could become a major constraint to implementation. In general, difficulties have been most severe in agriculture, particularly in the smallholder rural sector. As our lending program has been increasingly concentrated on this sector, these problems have become correspondingly more apparent and severe. By contrast, the "modern" sector projects have tended to fare better: the Tanzania Investment Bank, Mwanza Textile and Morogoro Industrial Estate Projects, for example, are proceeding well. 22. As the Bank Group's lending program has expanded, increasing attention has been given to measures designed to improve project implementa- tion. Courses on Bank Group procurement have been conducted in Dar es Salaam for the relevant Government officials. A special project implementation unit was set up in the Ministry of Agriculture and 11 Agricultural Development Services staff have been assigned to Bank Group financed projects in agricul- ture and rural development. The need to establish a close and continuous working level dialogue between responsible Tanzanian officials and Bank Group staff on implementation problems was one of the prime reasons for the expan- sion of the Resident Mission to two professionals in October 1976. In February 1977 a regular Government/Bank Group review of project implementation was established. Discussions on Bank Group financed projects chaired by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and attended by Bank Group staff and officials from implementing agencies deal in detail with individual problem projects and problems which are affecting project implementation across a number of sectors. As a result of these efforts, there has been some improvement in project implementation. - 8 - 23. The Government is very conscious of the importance of effective implementation. In addition to supporting the project implementation review system, the Government has assigned particular responsibility for the super- vision of project performance to the Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs. Furthermore, `here has been a general willingness to openly discuss project problems raised by Bank staff. As a consequence, the disbursement records of Bank Group financed projects have improved somewhat over the last two years, and a recent analysis indicated that the Tanzanian disbursement performance is about equal to the Bank-wide average. While there is still a potential for further significant improvements, the Government is implementing much of its investment program, including Bank Group and other foreign aided projects, more effectively than in the past. PART III - THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AND COCONUT SUBSECTOR General Background 24. Agriculture and related activities constitute the largest single sector in the Tanzanian economy. Most agricultural production is from small- holdings using family labour. Large-scale agriculture is confined to a small number of private estates and state farms producing sisal, coffee, tea, sugar, rice and livestock. Estate production has diminished in importance since Independence and the state farm program remains small. Tanzania-s livestock herd, which is the second largest in Africa, is grazed extensively over the 40% of the country which is free from tsetse fly infestation. It is largely managed along traditional lines. 25. The recent performance of the agricultural sector has been dis- appointing. During the seventies, subsistence production appears to have barely kept pace with population growth. Indeed, early in the decade, food production was very problematical and Tanzania became increasingly dependent on imports of maize, rice and wheat. A severe drought in 1973 and 1974 resulted in poor harvests and large imports of foodgrains. Following this, the Government introduced a number of policies to increase food crop produc- tion. Along with favorable weather conditions, these have had some effect in stimulating food production. However, in the meantime, export crop pro- duction has actually been declining (particularly in coffee, cotton, sisal and cashewnuts) and sustained efforts will be required just to maintain export earnings at current levels (see paragraph 8 above). 26. The Government of Tanzania (GOT) has undertaken a wide-ranging program to support the development of the agricultural sector in conjunction with efforts to achieve balanced regional growth and more equitable income distribution. However, GOT has tended to concentrate its efforts on achieving self-sufficiency in food production and has only recently begun to focus attention on the expansion of export production. The proposed project would assist the Government on both counts, as coconuts are both a major food item in Tanzania's coastal regions and a potential source of foreign exchange. -9- Agricultural Services 27. The Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) is responsible for the overall planning and monitoring of the sector as well as for coordinating agri- cultural research, training and extension services, pricing policy, seed multiplication and supervision of agricultural parastatals. Agricultural research is undertaken by a wide variety of Government agencies and while MOA has been given the responsibility for overall coordination, resources for research have not always been allocated in accordance with development priorities. Agricultural extension services are manned by staff trained by MOA, but are under the control of the regional administrations or cash crop authorities. The links between research and extension are weak, and field staff are often poorly trained and inadequately supervised. A major review of both the research and the extension systems has been undertaken, and the Bank Group has made recommendations for basic improvements in these areas. Credit for the rural sector is provided by the National Bank of Commerce, which is the sole source of short-term credit for marketing parastatals and by the Tanzania Rural Development Bank (TRDB) which provides long-, medium- and short-term credit to villages and farmers. IDA has recently approved a project to strengthen TRDB's operations. Marketing and Pricing 28. Marketing parastatals are responsible for the marketing and process- ing of most major crops and livestock products. GOT has progressively enlarged the role and scope of these institutions, and this has placed severe strains on their physical and managerial resources. Overall operational efficiency is often low, and marketing margins are correspondingly high. GOT is aware of these problems and is beginning to address them. The Bank Group is assisting in this process through its analysis of and support for parastatals involved in recent projects and in its economic and sector work. 29. The control of producer and wholesale prices of all principal agri- cultural crops (except vegetables, fruit, nuts, fish and eggs) is an important tool of GOT policy. Responsibility for the formulation of pricing recommenda- tions rests with MOA, whose Market Development Bureau (MDB) carries out annual price reviews for major crops, taking into account international prices, domestic production costs, the need for incentives to producers, the financial position of parastatals and interregional equity. MDB is currently being financed by IDA, on a provisional basis, under the National Maize Project (Cr. No. 606-TA) and will receive further IDA funds and long-term technical assistance under the Grain Storage and Milling Project (Cr. No. 1015-TA). Coconut Production 30. Coconut is the only cash crop, apart from cashewnut, which is planted extensively in Tanzania's coastal regions, including the islands of Zanzibar, Pemba and Mafia. Grown over an area of about 125,000 hectares (90,000 on the mainland and 35,000 on the islands), the fresh nuts and oil are important items in the local diet. They are also a significant source of cash income for smallholders, who tend about 95% of the area under culti- vation. - 10 - 31. Surplus coconuts used to be made into copra 1/, sold to local processing mills and relied upon for a substantial portion of Tanzania-s vegetable oil requirements. However, owing to increased consumption of fresh nuts and an apparent decline in overall production, progressively smaller quantities of copra have become available for sale to local mills or for export. As a result, since 1977, Tanzania has become a net importer of copra and coconut oil. 32. The peak production period for the East African Tall variety is normally between 15 and 30 years of age. Three quarters of Tanzania's coconut palms, however, are over 50 years old. This age, as well as wide- spread neglect, of the existing groves account for the low yields common along the Coast. There are no reliable data on production among small- holders, but current yields probably average 20 nuts/palm/year. Improved management could raise output even from existing trees to 40 nuts/palm over a three-to-four-year period. 33. In general, coconut smallholdings are poorly managed. Palm densities vary from 70 to 300 palms per hectare, compared with a recommended density of 143 for pure stands of Talls. Maintenance is usually confined to annual burning of undergrowth, an operation which often damages and retards the growth of the palms. Intercropping with cassava and maize is normal while the palms are young, but fertilizer is rarely used. Moreover, the seedlings supplied to farmers through Government programs have usually been unselected ones. 34. Management of the few coconut plantations and estates in the country (except the Mafia Plantation) is also minimal. The larger estates were previously owned and managed by European settlers, but are now State- owned. Mafia Coconut Ltd. manages an area of 2,800 ha reasonably well, but has not been able to afford the use of fertilizer for the last several years, with a consequent decline in production. Present yields are estimated to be about 30-35 nuts/palm/year. 35. An estimated 20-25% of palms particularly in the Tanga, Pangani and Bagamoyo areas have been affected by disease. The disease has not yet been identified; nor has its cause been determined. The major insect pest is the Rhinoceros bettle which causes considerable damage. Farm hygiene, particularly the proper disposal of dead palm trunks and other organic debris which serve as breeding grounds for the beetle, is generally ignored by farmers. Marketing and Processing 36. The marketing and pricing of fresh coconuts is not subject to state control. Copra, however, is purchased by village councils for delivery to the National Milling Corporation (for processing into oil) or to the General Agricultural Products Export Corporation (for sale to export markets). As 1/ Copra is the dried coconut 'meat from which oil is derived. - 11 - with other scheduled crops, the copra price is fixed annually by Government, and has recently been increased to restore its approximate parity with the export price. However, the average return to producers from fresh nuts remains almost twice as high and farmers currently have little incentive to produce copra. Indeed, no farmer produces it unless there are obvious obstacles (such as transport) to the sale of fresh nuts. Plantations are also converting to the more lucrative trade in fresh nuts. Current production is estimated at 175 million nuts (of which only 6 million are sold as copra). Demand for fresh nuts is expected to increase to 420 million by the year 2000, with an additional 300 million still necessary to meet projected requirements for oil. 37. The coconut offers a wide range of processing possibilities. In addition to copra for oil production, they include coir fibre, shell flour, charcoal, alcohol and copra cake (used as a livestock feed). In Tanzania, very little has been attempted along these lines. The existing oil mills have a crushing capacity of nearly 20,000 tons of copra, but are operating well below capacity as a result of the shortage of raw material. The supply of copra is unlikely to improve until the large effective demand for fresh coconuts has been satisfied. Research and Extension 38. Until 1970, coconut research was carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture, mainly at the Chambezi Experimental Station in the Coast Region. However, no information on those early trials is available and their results appear not to have been put to practical use. Since 1970, research on coconut has been undertaken at Mlingano Agricultural Research Institute (MARI) in the Tanga region. The current program is extremely limited and reflects the low priority previously accorded to coconuts. Some agronomic trials are also being carried out at Chambezi, but supervised from MARI. Two Tanzanian officials have been assigned duties on coconut research, but both would benefit from additional training and experience. 39. The lack of past emphasis on coconuts is also reflected in the absence of a proper extension program for improved coconut production. Regional attempts at coconut extension have centred on the establishment of nurseries to raise seedlings for farmers. However, there are no reliable sources of good seed nuts and the seedlings distributed have been unselected ones. The National Coconut Development Project 40. With the assistance of the Federal Republic of Germany, the Govern- ment has already begun the first phase of a National Coconut Development Project. As agreed in April 1979, the project is intended to develop disease and pest control measures, examine the potential for developing improved varieties, undertake training for Tanzanian staff in husbandry and extension techniques and assist the Government in the preparation of a Coconut Master Plan. The Project is being implemented by the German Agency for Technical - 12 - Cooperation (GTZ). To ensure complementarity and cost-effectiveness in these efforts, the Government has proposed that GTZ also manage the proposed IDA- financed project. PART IV - THE PROJECT 41. The proposed project was prepared by the Government of Tanzania with the assistance of the FAO/Bank Group Cooperative Program and was appraised in October 1979. To ensure full completion of pre-project activities, an advance of US$288,000 under the Project Preparation Facility (PPF) was granted in May 1980. A staff appraisal report entitled "Coconut Pilot Project," Report No. 2906-TA dated August 14, 1980 is being circulated separately to the Executive Directors. Negotiations were held in Dar es Salaam in July 1980. The Tanzanian Delegation was led by Dr. S.A. Madallali, Principal Secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture, and included representa- tives of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Agriculture in Zanzibar. A Credit and Project Summary is at the front of this Report and a Supple- mentary Project Data Sheet is attached as Annex III. Objectives and Description of the Project 42. The proposed Pilot Project would, over a five year period (1980/81 - 1984/85), help to develop a strong base for the future rehabilitation of the coconut industry in Tanzania. In close cooperation with FRG-financed activities (see paragraph 40), the project would provide guidance for the planning and implementation of future large scale coconut projects through the formulation of a technical package for improved production and the training of local staff. Specifically, the project would include financing for: (a) varietal trials at three sites in mainland Tanzania and one site on Zanzibar, covering a total of about 200 ha; (b) improved maintenance and rehabilitation trials on a total of about 1,000 ha on the Chambezi Experimental Station and Zegereni State Farm on the mainland and at the Government plantations in Zanzibar; (c) a 100 ha seed garden for the production of hybrid seed nuts; (d) soil and hydrological surveys to assist in the selection of varietal trial sites and the seed garden site and in the preparation of a coconut land suitability map; (e) technical assistance, consulting and management services and training for Tanzanian staff; and - 13 - (f) the preparation of a feasibility study for the next phase of the coconut development program. Implementation and Detailed Features 43. The Ministry of Agriculture would have overall responsibility for the implementation of the project. However, to assist MOA and to achieve close cooperation and coordination between the German- and IDA-financed activities, GTZ would undertake joint management of both coconut development projects (see para. 40 above). The GTZ Project Team Leader, who is already in Tanzania, would assume the role of overall Project Manager and the services of the FRG-financed Plant Breeder would also be made available to the project. The appointment of such management consultants would be a condition of effectiveness of the proposed credit (Section 5.01(b) of the draft Development Credit Agreement), and their appointment would be on terms and conditions satisfactory to the Association (Section 3.02(f) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Varietal Trials 44. To permit selection of the most appropriate varieties of coconut for each region, the proposed project would provide for a set of trials at four sites in Tanga, Dar es Salaam-Coast and Mtwara-Lindi regions and in Zanzibar. The trials would involve the testing of about thirty varieties, including an especially promising variety from the Ivory Coast, and would assess their precocity, yield and resistance to disease and pests, as well as their nutrient requirements. Nurseries to raise seedlings for the trials would be established at each of the four sites. Those on the mainland would also produce selected seedlings of the existing East African Tall variety from the third year onward for distribution to farmers by the Regional agricultural authorities. This would allow the concept of selected seedlings and improved husbandry practices to be introduced to farmers. Approximately 33,000 seedlings (enough to cover 230 ha) would be distributed from each of the three nurseries every year. The nursery in Zanzibar would not distribute seedlings to farmers, as the present density of palms there is already high. Four Tanzanian agronomists have been assigned to these proposed trials and are currently undergoing preparatory training. The selection of sites for the varietal trials and the appointment of an internationally recruited Coconut Agronomist to plan and supervise the trials would be conditions of effective- ness of the proposed credit (Sections 5.01(a) and (c) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Improved Maintenance and Rehabilitation Trials 45. The objective of these trials would be to test known improved methods of maintenance and rehabilitation of coconuts with a view to introducing them more widely in the country or adapting them to local con- ditions. The results of these trials would permit the development of a general technical package for use in a rehabilitation program. Large blocks of existing coconuts located at Chambezi Experimental Station and Zegereni State Farm on the mainland, and at Government plantations in Zanzibar, would be used for this purpose. Provision would be made for the necessary machinery and equipment, fertilizer and other maintenance facilities required to carry - 14 - out these trials. In Zanzibar, MOA would make eight tractors available for the trials from its existing fleet (Section 3.01(b) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Each of the trial sites would also serve as a training base for local staff, both in management and crop husbandry. To ensure early progress in these trials, MOA has already assigned local staff to act as Assistant Plantation Managers in Zanzibar. However, the appointment of an internationally recruited Plantation Manager would be a condition of disburse- ment for the maintenance and rehabilitation trials (Paragraph 5(a) of Schedule 1 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Seed Garden 46. To establish a local source of improved high yielding planting material, a seed garden would be established on Mafia Island. The project would provide for importation of the necessary seed nuts and for their planting and maintenance in the seed garden. The selection of a site for the seed garden would be a condition of effectiveness of the proposed credit (Section 5.01(a) of the draft Development Credit Agreement); the allocation of land for this purpose would also be a condition of disbursement for the seed garden (paragraph 5(b) of Schedule 1 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Soil and Hydrological Survey 47. To improve existing knowledge of coconut growing areas, the project would provide for a comprehensive soil and hydrological survey of these areas. Particular objectives of the survey would be the selection of sites for the varietal trials and proposed seed garden, as well as the preparation of a land suitability map to be used in the planning of future coconut rehabilita- tion projects. Technical Assistance, Consulting Services and Training 48. To strengthen MOA's capacity to implement the project, funds would be provided for the employment of an experienced Coconut Agronomist and a Plantation Manager (Sections 3.02(b) and (c) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). The average cost of such personnel (including salaries, inter- national travel and subsistence) would be US$8,000 per man-month. These internationally-recruited specialists would plan and implement the varietal trials, as well as the maintenance and rehabilitation trials, and interpret results. They would also be responsible for on-the-job training of Tanzanian staff in coconut husbandry, replanting and rehabilitation methods and planta- tion management. To supplement this, the project would provide for short-term training in coconut-growing countries (e.g., Ivory Coast, Sri Lanka and Malaysia) with a view to creating a core of local staff with knowledge of coconut rehabilitation programs. 49. Additional expertise would be needed from time to time to provide guidance or second opinions on specific technical aspects of the project (e.g., soil fertility, plant nutrition, plant diseases). Six man-months of short-term consultancies would therefore be financed under the project - 15 - (Sections 3.02(d) and (e) of the draft Development Credit Agreement), at an average cost of US$12,000 per man-month. To assist Project staff in monitoring and evaluating crop responses, provision would be made for over- seas laboratory services (e.g., for foliar analysis) to supplement facilities available within the country. In addition, funds would be provided for GOT to finance the project implementation services of GTZ and to engage consultants in the preparation of a feasibility study for the next phase of coconut devel- opment (Sections 3.02(a) and (d) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Project Costs and Financing Plan 50. The total cost of the project is estimated at Tsh 70.9 million (US$8.5 million). 1/ The foreign exchange component would amount to US$6.4 million or 75% of total costs. Details of project costs are included in the Credit and Project Summary. The proposed IDA Credit of SDR 5.2 million (US$6.8 million) would finance about 80% of total costs - 100% (US$6.4 million) of the foreign exchange costs and 19% (US$0.4 million) of local costs. Provision for the financing of local costs is consistent with recent practice for Tanzania, where the Government's fiscal resources are strained. The Government would provide the remaining US$1.7 million of project costs, which appears a reasonable burden over the project period. Procurement and Disbursements 51. Orders for vehicles, tractors, attachments and spare parts (US$0.70 million) would be bulked as far as possible and would be procured on the basis of international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank Group guidelines. Contracts for vehicles and tractors estimated to cost less than US$100,000 equivalent would be procured (up to an aggregate of US$100,000) in accordance with GOT's local competitive bidding procedures which are acceptable to the Association. Orders for tools, office equipment, pump sets and barbed wire fencing (US$0.66 million) would be bulked as far as possible and procured according to local competitive bidding procedures. Contracts for the construction of offices, stores and garages at each of the varietal trial sites (US$128,000) would be too small and scattered to attract international interest, and hence would be awarded using local competitive bidding procedures. As coconut seed nuts of the required varieties are only available in the Ivory Coast and 2-3 countries in Asia, their procurement would be on the basis of availability, price and freight cost. Local seed nuts (US$0.30 million) and fertilizer (US$0.9 million) would be procured according to local procedures. 52. Disbursements under the credit would be on the basis of (a) 100% of the foreign expenditures and 85% of the local expenditures on fertilizer, vehicles, tractors and related attachments and spare parts; (b) 100% of foreign expenditures on imported seed nuts, technical assistance, consulting services, training and laboratory services; (c) 100% of the costs of locally procured seed nuts; and (d) 95% of the costs of constructing and equipping 1/ The project would be exempted from identifiable taxes and duties. - 16 - basic facilities at the varietal trial sites. Disbursements against all expenditures would be fully documented, except for those under (c) above which would be on the basis of statements of expenditures. Certain expenditures to be incurred after April 1, 1980 on consulting services in the selection of sites for the varietal trials and seed garden, as well as on preliminary surveys for land suitability mapping (US$150,000),would be financed retro- actively under the credit. Accounts and Auditing, Monitoring and Reporting 53. Separate accounts of expenditures under the Project would be kept by the project implementation agency. These accounts would be audited by independent auditors acceptable to the Association, and would be submitted to GOT and the Association within six months of the end of each financial year. The auditors would specifically review and comment on the procedures used for control of disbursements against statements of expenditures. 54. Project implementation would be monitored closely by the Project Preparation and Monitoring Bureau of MOA. The project management team would submit detailed progress reports on a quarterly basis to the Principal Secretary of MOA and the Association. Within six months of the completion of disbursements, MOA together with GTZ would prepare and submit a Project Completion Report to the Association, analyzing the implementation and impact of the project in the light of its original objectives (Section 3.05(c) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Project Benefits and Risks 55. As the principal focus of the Pilot Phase is on research and development, it is not possible to quantify the benefits of the proposed project. However, it is expected to provide a firm foundation for future coconut development in Tanzania by preparing integrated technical packages for rehabilitation and expansion of production, developing precise infor- mation on the suitability of existing and prospective areas for coconut cultivation, and establishing a core of Tanzanian personnel with experience and expertise in coconut husbandry and rehabilitation techniques. The project will also provide opportunities for testing and developing approaches to farmer participation. The full impact of the project would only be felt when its results are applied on an extensive basis in subsequent phases. 56. The prospects for effective implementation of the project are sound, particularly as its day-to-day management will be contracted out to an agency with working experience in Tanzania and responsibility for a complemen- tary coconut project in the country. There is some risk of delays in imple- mentation of the varietal trials component, owing to the seasonal availability of specific varieties of seednuts required. However, contacts have been established with potential suppliers to keep such possible delays to a minimum, and the first batch of seednuts has already been imported with funds provided through the Project Preparation Facility. - 17 - PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 57. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the United Republic of Tanzania and the Association and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1 (d) of the Articles of Agreement are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 58. Specific conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III of this Report. The draft Development Credit Agreement includes the following conditions precedent to its effectiveness: (a) selection of the sites required for the undertaking of varietal trials and the establishment of a seed garden (Section 5.01 (a) of the draft Development Credit Agreement); (b) appointment of management consultants for the implementation of the project (Section 5.01 (b) of the draft Development Credit Agreement); and (c) appointment of a Coconut Agronomist to the project by the Ministry of Agriculture (Section 5.01 (c) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 59. I am satisfied that the proposed Credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 60. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Credit. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments Washington, D.C. September 18, 1980 ANNEX I -18- Page 1 of 6 TANZANIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SUET TANZANIA REFlERECE GOUPS (WEIGTD AV8ACES LAND AREA (THOUSAND SQ EN.) - DST RECENT ESTIMATE TOTAL 945.1j" AGRICULTURAL 498.0 MOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 Lb ESTIMATE Lb AFICA SOUTH OF SAHUA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 70.0 120.0 230.0 228.9 726.2 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 41.0 62.0 65.0 80.0 699.4 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, MID-YEAR (MILLIONS) 10.2 13.3 16.9 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 4.8 6.9 10.8 17.3 28.9 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 32.0 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 92.0 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2145 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. EN. 11.0 14.0 18.0 27.4 61.7 PER SQ. Rb. AGRICULTURAL LAND 21.0 26.0 34.0 82.6 126.0 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 42.7 44.4 45.7 44.9 45.5 15-64 YRS. 54.3 52.5 51.2 52.2 51.6 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.8 r POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 2.2 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.7 URBAN 5.0 6.3 8.9 6.8 4.9 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 47.0 47.0 48.0 47.4 46.8 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 22.0 19.0 16.0 19.6 16.4 GhOSS REPRODUCTION RATE .. 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. .. 93.6 USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 95.0 104.0 91.0 91.8 94.0 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 85.0 91.0 89.0 90.2 92.7 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 44.0 49.0 49.0 53.0 53.0 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 17.0 21.0 21.0 18.4 15.6 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 32.0 25.0 20.0 27.7 21.3 HEALTh LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 42.0 47.0 51.0 45.3 50.1 INFANT MIORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) .. 155.Ojc ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 13.0 39.0 23.2 31.0 URBAN .. 61.0 88.0 58.0 66.8 RURAL .. 9.0 36.0 16.8 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. 17.0 28.9 URBAN .. .. 88.0 67.0 RURAL .. .. 14.0 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 21020.0/d 24770.0 15450.0 30910.4 14508.2 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 10440.0 ,e 3830.0 2760.0 5793.2 3279.5 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 570.0/d .. 440.0 1198.9 1141.5 URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL 4. URBAN 3 2Z .. RURAL .. 4.5/c 5.3 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. -19 - ANNEX I TABLE 3A Page 2 of 6 TANZANIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET TANZANIA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGdTED AVERACES - MOST RECENT ESTIMfATE)- MOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 Jb ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OF SARARA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 25.0 38.0 70.0 57.7 61.7 MALE 33.0 46.0 79.0 74.2 69.2 FEIALE 18.0 30.0 60.0 54.1 51.4 SECONDARY: TOTAL 2.0 3.0 3.0 10.0 20.6 MALE 2.0 4.0 5.0 13.7 29.2 FEMALE 1.0 2.0 2.0 7.1 14.7 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (I OF SECONDARY) 23.0 .. .. 6.8 7.0 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 45.0 46.0 50.0 45.0 36.6 SECONDARY 20.0 19.0 20.0 25.2 24.3 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 9.5/d 28.1/c 66.0 25.5 CONSUhPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 3.0 2.5 2.7 3.6 38.8 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 2.0 11.0 19.0 31.5 83.5 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 0.3 .. 1.8 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER ThOUSAND POPULATION 3.0 5.0 4.5 4.6 24.2 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 0.5 .. 0.2 *- 0.7 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 4734.5 5841.7 7035.0 FEMALE (PERCENT) 37.1 36.6 34.0 33.5 38.1 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 89.3 86.0 83.0 80.7 54.3 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 3.8 5.0 6.0 8.1 17.8 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 44.7 43.5 42.2 42.2 38.8 MALE 56.9 55.7 54.3 55.1 48.4 FEMALE 32.8 31.5 30.3 29.5 29.4 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 33.5 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 63.3 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 2.3 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 7.8 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 147.0 138.2 RURAL .. .. 109.0 86.1 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USs PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 125.0 107.0 RURAL .. .. 74.0 65.0 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 10.0 RURAL .. .. 60.0 66.9 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise octed, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1974 and 1978. /c 1967; /d 1962; /e Registered, not all practicing in the country. April, 1980 - 20 - ANNE X I Page 3 of 6 DEFINITIONS OF SOCIAL INDICATORS ioot- AlnIo-igo the data are dowet Ieon sources generally judged the moat aunbortattire and reliable, it should also Ie noted that they sop non be inter- cotionshlo comparatle hecrge e of the look of a_andardleod definitfons and omncepnt used by different tcouneres in -cilecnr.g the data The data ate, none- too ita, use 71 ot describe oedees af ogeiteude., Idiuate trends, and char tcterle tertain -ajor differe-oes henoeencountrien lye tretesente groups are (IS nile sane asonnery group of the subijeon couentr and 00) a teasery group vitb somewhat higi:er average iboone than the counrtty scoop yofoth suhit.ntcnotep (enoept tot "Capital SurpluIs Il seporta t'a groap wnere "Diddle Income torb Afi (ca and Middle east" is ...s. because of sotac-cuItuta1 aifininies . to the reference group data nhe averagos are population weigheed arihnetic means foc ean isdicator and n'.oan tnly nen ar lease hlalf of toe countriesitoa group basata fto tothat isdltatcO. 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