Accounting for adjustment in selected semi-industrial countries (English)

This paper develops a modeling framework which is used to examine adjustment to external shocks in thirteen semi-industrial countries. The approach offers a unified treatment of trade adjustment as well as resource mobilization in public and private sectors...  See More + This paper develops a modeling framework which is used to examine adjustment to external shocks in thirteen semi-industrial countries. The approach offers a unified treatment of trade adjustment as well as resource mobilization in public and private sectors, changes in the growth of investment and external financing. Associations between growth performance, external shocks, and reliance on alternative modes of adjustment are explored through statistical analysis. An open economy macroeconometric model, which is estimated for each country over the period 1963-78 and used to measure shocks and adjustment, is formulated. This allows intercountry comparison and provides benchmarks against which individual country performance may be assessed. The countries are classified on the basis of modes of adjustment in response to external shocks, and the results of cross-country regressions of growth performance against these modes are reported. Experiments with the model for each country are conducted to ascertain the macroeconomic impact of variations.  See Less -