The World Bank Implementation of the National Strategy Program for Strengthening of the National Statistical System (P155630) REPORT NO.: RES45057 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NATIONAL STRATEGY PROGRAM FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM APPROVED ON FEBRUARY 28, 2017 TO STATISTICAL COMMITTEE OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA POVERTY AND EQUITY EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA Regional Vice President: Anna M. Bjerde Country Director: Sebastian-A Molineus Global Director: Lalita M. Moorty Practice Manager/Manager: Salman Zaidi Task Team Leader(s): Saida Ismailakhunova The World Bank Implementation of the National Strategy Program for Strengthening of the National Statistical System (P155630) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ICT Information and Communications Technology SC RA Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia NSDS National Strategy Program for Strengthening of the National Statistical System PDO Project Development Objective PIT Project Implementation Team POM Project Operational Manual SNA System of National Accounts TP Twinning Partnership The World Bank Implementation of the National Strategy Program for Strengthening of the National Statistical System (P155630) Note to Task Teams: The following sections are system generated and can only be edited online in the Portal. BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P155630 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Approval Date Current Closing Date 28-Feb-2017 30-Jun-2021 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia Financing (in USD Million) FIN_SUMM_PUB_TBL SUMMARY Total Project Cost 0 Total Financing 0 Financing Gap 0 DETAILS -NewFin3 The World Bank Implementation of the National Strategy Program for Strengthening of the National Statistical System (P155630) Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The objectives of the Project is to further improve the capacity of the national statistical system of Armenia and technical capacity of the staff at the NSSRA to produce and disseminate in a timely manner statistics that are in line with international standards. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing (US$, Millions) Net TF Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed TF-A4543 24-Apr-2017 28-Apr-2017 05-Jul-2017 30-Jun-2021 3.00 1.33 1.67 Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No Note to Task Teams: End of system generated content, document is editable from here. The World Bank Implementation of the National Strategy Program for Strengthening of the National Statistical System (P155630) I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING A. Project background and results 1. Implementation of the National Strategy Program for Strengthening of the National Statistical System (AR STAT) project aims to further improve the national statistical system of Armenia and technical capacity of the staff at the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia (SC RA) to produce and disseminate in a timely manner statistics meeting the international standards. Grant Agreement No.TF0A4543 between Armenia and the IBRD was signed on April 28, 2017, and declared effective on July 5, 2017. The project supports implementation of the National Strategy for Strengthening of the National Statistical System. 2. Project progress. Notwithstanding the arising delays, the project made important progress: (i) Updated Quality Declarations are available for 138 statistical products. The declarations describe the regulatory background of statistics, purpose and methodology of statistics, its dissemination and other important information for users of statistics in question. The Single Integrated Metadata System (SIMS) was piloted in 5 subject-matter divisions and SIMS-based quality reports were piloted for 5 statistical products. The pilot work to introduce the Generic Activity Model for Statistical Organizations (GAMSO) in the SC RA practice has been implemented. Starting from July 2020, the SC RA has been following the latest Quality Assurance Framework of the European Statistical System adopted by the European Statistical System Committee in May 2019; (ii) Data dissemination and outreach practices have been significantly improved. Users satisfaction survey is available online and has been conducted on a regular (bi-annual) basis. The survey plays an important role in ensuring that feedback of data users and citizens are incorporated for better data access, dissemination, and quality. The latest wave of the survey revealed an increase in the number and share of users satisfied with the design of the web page and ease of searching. Only 55.4% of 205 survey respondents were satisfied with the SC RA’s web page in 2019, while in 2020 the overall user satisfaction rate rose up to 73% (of 419 respondents). Additionally, the SC RA Communication Strategy was developed and approved by Decision N 25-Ա of the RA State Council on Statistics dated September 2, 2020; (iii) The SC RA has advanced in improving the National Accounts and Finance Statistics compilation techniques, including data collection tools in accordance with the 2008 System of National Accounts standard, and data exchange practices with administrative data producers; (iv) There is tangible progress achieved in implementation of Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) for the national household survey (Income and Living Conditions Survey [ILCS]) and price data collection. 3. The overall project progress towards achievement of the PDO is rated “moderately satisfactory”. The Client shows ownership of the project, the project implementation team is in place, delivery of the project activities follows the schedule envisioned in the original project design. The Financial management arrangements under the project are satisfactory and acceptable to the Bank. There are no overdue audits under the project. Undisbursed funds will be utilized under the Twining Partnership (TP), e-reporting system contracts, and related hardware and software procurement. 4. The project experienced delays in procurement processes, attributed to several factors beyond the SC RA’s control. Firstly, the project went through two restructurings in May and December 2019. The restructurings were carried out due to the changes in the project implementation arrangements caused by the transfer of the fiduciary function initiated by the Government of Armenia. Both changes in the project implementation arrangements were introduced within one year. Secondly, the COVID-19 outbreak, quarantine, and state of emergency impacted the pace of project implementation. In response to the pandemic, the Government of the Republic of Armenia declared the state of emergency, that lasted from March 16, 2020, until September 11, 2020, and imposed international and domestic travel restrictions; the state of emergency was then replaced by a quarantine regime, which is expected to last at least until January 11, 2021. Thirdly, the increasing tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia led to introduction of the martial law in the country on September 27, 2020. As a result of the above factors, the project implementation experienced a slow speed of procurement, implementation delays and, consequently, slow disbursement. 5. The extension is required to sustain results of the technical assistance provided by the TP and to implement an e-reporting system. The extension will allow to improve effectiveness and sustainability of the remaining project activities and, therefore, more comprehensive achievement the PDO. There are several methodologies, guidelines and instruments that are being developed jointly by the TP and SC RA (e.g., the methodology on profiling of business register units in line with the international practice, methodological guidelines for management and evaluation of demographic databases, methodology and instruments to measure emergency situations and disasters statistics, instruments for transitioning to ISCED 2011 and ISCED-F 2013 (education statistics), guidelines for implementation of the Standards for Data and Metadata Transmission and Documentation, etc.). Their implementation and mainstreaming will take time not least because the concurrence and approval processes take significant time. Therefore, in the absence of extension, the implementation of these new methodologies will take place after the project closure and will be handicapped by the lack of TP advice and oversight. A similar situation is currently unfolding with implementation of the SNA improvements. This process should include close discussions with ministries and agencies, their concurrence, refining, and further approval by the RA State Council on Statistics. Currently, the SC RA is working together with the TP experts and, in collaboration with the relevant ministries and agencies, is refining the methodologies proposed by the TP. This is an iterative process that cannot be rushed. An additional benefit is implementation of an e-reporting system which will allow respondents to submit mandatory statistical forms in an online format. The procurement of e- reporting was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the martial law in Armenia. 6. The extension of the project closing date will have additional benefits, including development of the following methodologies and practices under supervision and with support of experts from leading European statistical agencies engaged under the TP, for instance: (i) methods and practices of calculation of GDP and GDP’s real growth indices; (ii) methodological guidelines for compiling financial accounts and balance sheets of financial assets and liabilities in accordance with the SNA-2008 standards; (iii) management and operation of database systems on migration statistics from administrative and other alternative sources (surveys and other), as well as of data quality assessment and management and operation of database systems on vital data, vital statistics data quality assessment; (iv) methodological guidelines and instruments for the accounting of the housing fund, etc. 7. The Client has requested a 12-month no-cost extension of the closing date (the letter received from the Ministry of Finance dated November 19, 2020) and developed an action plan to complete the project activities and utilize all project funds. According to the Client’s request, the Twining Partner agrees on and supports the project extension and will not request any additional financing. This extension also does not require any additional supervision budget. The World Bank Implementation of the National Strategy Program for Strengthening of the National Statistical System (P155630) II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES Twelve-month no-cost extension of the closing date The proposed restructuring extends the project closing date from June 30, 2021, to June 30, 2022. The extension is requested by the Government (the letter of request is attached). This extension will improve sustainability of the project results by allowing the SC RA to benefit from advice and oversight of the Twinning Partner (TP) during implementation of the methodological recommendations developed jointly with the TP and finalize procurement of the e-reporting system and related hardware and software. If the extension is not granted, effectiveness and sustainability of the new methodological tools will be seriously jeopardized, because the SC RA lacks in-house implementation experience and expertise. This extension will allow the Client to complete all the scheduled project activities satisfactorily, deliver learning events to the SC RA regional statistical offices, implement e-reporting, develop experimental national accounts, collect more information on the achievements and remaining problems from the project beneficiaries, and, thereby, achieve the development objectives and truly sustainable results. This extension will not impose any extra supervision cost on the Bank budget. There will be no change to the project development objective (PDO). Note to Task Teams: The following sections are system generated and can only be edited online in the Portal. III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ The World Bank Implementation of the National Strategy Program for Strengthening of the National Statistical System (P155630) Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Additional Financing Proposed ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Change in Overall Risk Rating ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ Environmental Analysis ✔ IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LOANCLOSING_TABLE LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Original Revised Proposed Proposed Deadline TF Status Closing Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications TF-A4543 Effective 30-Jun-2021 30-Jun-2022 30-Oct-2022 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_DISBURSEMENT_TABLE DISBURSEMENT ESTIMATES Change in Disbursement Estimates Yes Expected Disbursements (In US$) The World Bank Implementation of the National Strategy Program for Strengthening of the National Statistical System (P155630) Fiscal Year Annual Cumulative 2017 0.00 0.00 2018 0.00 0.00 2019 0.00 0.00 2020 0.00 0.00 2021 0.00 0.00 2022 0.00 0.00 2023 0.00 0.00 Note to Task Teams: End of system generated content, document is editable from here.